致合伙人信(1965-01-18)
巴菲特合伙有限公司
BUFFETT PARTNERSHIP, LTD.
基威特广场 810 号
810 KIEWIT PLAZA
内布拉斯加州奥马哈 31 区
OMAHA 31, NEBRASKA
1965 年 1 月 18 日
我们 1964 年的业绩
1964 年,我们虽然实现了 4,846,312.37 美元的总收益,但按我们的根本衡量标准——道琼斯工业平均指数(以下简称“道指”)来判断,这一年算不上我们表现最好的年份之一。巴菲特合伙有限公司(BPL)的整体收益率为 27.8%,道指的整体收益率为 18.7%。有限合伙人的整体收益率为 22.3%。无论是以合伙基金整体计算的 9.1 个百分点领先优势,还是以有限合伙人计算的 3.6 个百分点领先优势,都是 1959 年以来最差的——而 1959 年道指的涨幅与今年大致相当。
尽管如此,我并没有感到沮丧。对整体市场而言,这一年表现强劲,而在这样的年份里,我们要跑赢道指总是更难。我们肯定会遇到被道指远远甩在后面的年份,从某些角度看,我倒相当庆幸 1964 年不是那样的年份。牛市行情给我们带来了不少难题,如果 1965 年道指重现 1964 年的表现,我们要想追平它都会极其困难,更不用说大幅超越了。
为更新历史记录,下表汇总了道指的逐年表现、向普通合伙人分配前的合伙基金业绩以及有限合伙人的业绩:
年份 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964
January 18, 1965 Our Performance in 1964 Although we had an overall gain of $4,846,312.37 in 1964, it was not one of our better years as judged by our fundamental yardstick, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average (hereinafter called the "Dow"). The overall result for BPL was plus 27.8% compared to an overall plus 18.7% for the Dow. The overall result for limited partners was plus 22.3%. Both the advantage of 9.1 percentage points on a partnership basis and 3.6 points by the limited partners were the poorest since 1959, which was a year of roughly comparable gains for the Dow. Nevertheless, I am not depressed. It was a strong year for the general market, and it is always tougher for us to outshine the Dow in such a year. We are certain to have years when the Dow gives us a drubbing and, in some respects, I feel rather fortunate that 1964 wasn't the year. Because of the problems that galloping markets pose for us, a Dow repeat in 1965 of 1964 results would make it most difficult for us to match its performance, let alone surpass it by a decent margin. To bring the record up to date, the following summarizes the year-by-year performance of the Dow, the performance of the Partnership before allocation to the general partner, and the limited partner's results: Year 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964
道指整体收益率(1) −8.4% 38.5% 20.0% −6.2% 22.4% −7.6% 20.6% 18.7%
Overall Results From Dow (1) -8.4% 38.5% 20.0% -6.2% 22.4% -7.6% 20.6% 18.7%
合伙基金业绩(2) 10.4% 40.9% 25.9% 22.8% 45.9% 13.9% 38.7% 27.8%
Partnership Results (2) 10.4% 40.9% 25.9% 22.8% 45.9% 13.9% 38.7% 27.8%
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
有限合伙人业绩(3) 9.3% 32.2% 20.9% 18.6% 35.9% 11.9% 30.5% 22.3%
Limited Partners’ Results (3) 9.3% 32.2% 20.9% 18.6% 35.9% 11.9% 30.5% 22.3%
(1)基于道指逐年价值变动,加上当年持有该指数本应获得的股息。表中涵盖了合伙基金运营的所有完整年度。
(2)1957—1961 年数据为前身各有限合伙企业在全年运营中,扣除所有费用后、向合伙人分配或向普通合伙人计提之前的合并业绩。
(3)1957—1961 年数据在前一列合伙业绩基础上,按现行合伙协议向普通合伙人计提分配后计算得出,但未扣除有限合伙人的月度提款。
(1) Based on yearly changes in the value of the Dow plus dividends that would have been received through ownership of the Dow during that year. The table includes all complete years of partnership activity. (2) For 1957-61 consists of combined results of all predecessor limited partnerships operating throughout the entire year after all expenses, but before distributions to partners or allocations to the general partner. (3) For 1957-61 computed on the basis of the preceding column of partnership results allowing for allocation to the general partner based upon the present partnership agreement, but before monthly withdrawals by limited partners.
按累计或复利口径计算,结果如下:
On a cumulative or compounded basis, the results are:
年份 1957 1957–58
Year 1957 1957 – 58
道指整体收益率 −8.4% 26.9%
Overall Results From Dow -8.4% 26.9%
合伙基金业绩 10.4% 55.6%
Partnership Results 10.4% 55.6%
有限合伙人业绩 9.3% 44.5%
Limited Partners’ Results 9.3% 44.5%
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原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
1957 – 59 年 1957 – 60 年 1957 – 61 年 1957 – 62 年 1957 – 63 年 1957 – 64 年 年复利增长率
1957 – 59 1957 – 60 1957 – 61 1957 – 62 1957 – 63 1957 – 64 Annual Compounded Rate
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
52.3% 42.9% 74.9% 61.6% 94.9% 131.3% 11.1% 95.9% 140.9% 251.0% 299.8% 454.5% 608.7% 27.7% 74.7% 107.2% 181.6% 215.1% 311.2% 402.9% 22.3%
52.3% 42.9% 74.9% 61.6% 94.9% 131.3% 11.1% 95.9% 140.9% 251.0% 299.8% 454.5% 608.7% 27.7% 74.7% 107.2% 181.6% 215.1% 311.2% 402.9% 22.3%
投资公司
我们定期将自身业绩与四家公司进行对比——两家最大的开放式投资公司(共同基金),其策略是通常将 95% 至 100% 的资金投资于普通股,以及两家最大的多元化封闭式投资公司。这四家公司分别是马萨诸塞投资者信托(Massachusetts Investors Trust)、投资者股票基金(Investors Stock Fund)、三大陆公司(Tri-Continental Corporation)和莱曼公司(Lehman Corporation)。它们合计管理约 45 亿美元资产,股东约 55 万人,大概能代表整个规模约 300 亿美元的投资公司行业。我认为,它们的业绩与绝大多数其他投资顾问机构大致相当,而这些机构管理的资金总量要大得多。下附对比表旨在说明,道指作为衡量投资业绩的标尺,绝非轻易就能超越。仅表格中这四家公司所聘请的投资顾问人才,每年收取的酬金便超过 800 万美元,而这还只是整个专业投资管理行业一个极小的缩影。这些薪酬丰厚、备受推崇的人才,其公开的行业平均成绩显示,表现比道指这一无人管理的指数还略逊一筹。
Investment Companies We regularly compare our results with the two largest open-end investment companies (mutual funds) that follow a policy of being typically 95-100% invested in common stock, and the two largest diversified closedend investment companies. These four companies, Massachusetts Investors Trust, Investors Stock Fund, TriContinental Corporation, and Lehman Corporation, manage about $4.5 billion, are owned by about 550,000 shareholders, and are probably typical of most of the $30 billion investment company industry. My opinion is that their results roughly parallel those of the overwhelming majority of other investment advisory organizations which handle, in aggregate, vastly greater sums. The purpose of this tabulation, which is shown below, is to illustrate that the Dow is no pushover as an index of investment achievement. The advisory talent managing just the four companies shown commands annual fees of over $8 million and this represents a very small fraction of the professional investment management industry. The public batting average of this highly-paid and widely respected talent indicates performance a shade below that of the Dow, an unmanaged index.
历年业绩
YEARLY RESULTS
| 年份 | 1957 | 1958 | 1959 | 1960 | 1961 | 1962 | 1963 | 1964 |
Year 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
马萨诸塞投资者信托(1) −11.4% 42.7% 9.0% −1.0% 25.6% −9.8% 20.0% 15.9%
Mass. Inv. Trust (1) -11.4% 42.7% 9.0% -1.0% 25.6% -9.8% 20.0% 15.9%
投资者股票基金(1) -12.4% 47.5% 10.3% -0.6% 24.9% -13.4% 16.5% 14.3%
Investors Stock (1) -12.4% 47.5% 10.3% -0.6% 24.9% -13.4% 16.5% 14.3%
雷曼(2) -11.4% 40.8% 8.1% 2.5% 23.6% -14.4% 23.7% 13.6%
Lehman (2) -11.4% 40.8% 8.1% 2.5% 23.6% -14.4% 23.7% 13.6%
三大陆(2) -2.4% 33.2% 8.4% 2.8% 22.5% -10.0% 18.3% 12.6%
Tri-Cont (2) -2.4% 33.2% 8.4% 2.8% 22.5% -10.0% 18.3% 12.6%
道琼斯指数 -8.4% 38.5% 20.0% -6.2% 22.4% -7.6% 20.6% 18.7%
Dow -8.4% 38.5% 20.0% -6.2% 22.4% -7.6% 20.6% 18.7%
有限合伙人 9.3% 32.2% 20.9% 18.6% 35.9% 11.9% 30.5% 22.3%
Limited Partners 9.3% 32.2% 20.9% 18.6% 35.9% 11.9% 30.5% 22.3%
(1)以资产价值变动加上当年向登记在册持有人的任何分配计算得出。(2)1957 至 1963 年的数据取自 1964 年《穆迪银行与金融手册》,1964 年为估计值。
(1) Computed from changes in asset value plus any distributions to holders of record during year. (2) From 1964 Moody's Bank & Finance Manual for 1957-63. Estimated for 1964.
复利
COMPOUNDED
年份 1957 年 1957 – 58 年 1957 – 59 年 1957 – 60 年
Year 1957 1957 – 58 1957 – 59 1957 – 60
马萨诸塞投资者信托(1) -11.4% 26.4% 37.8% 36.4%
Mass. Inv. Trust (1) -11.4% 26.4% 37.8% 36.4%
投资者股票基金(1) -12.4% 29.2% 42.5% 41.6%
Investors Stock (1) -12.4% 29.2% 42.5% 41.6%
雷曼(2) -11.4% 24.7% 34.8% 38.2%
Lehman (2) -11.4% 24.7% 34.8% 38.2%
三大陆(2) -2.4% 30.0% 40.9% 44.8%
Tri-Cont (2) -2.4% 30.0% 40.9% 44.8%
道琼斯指数 -8.4% 26.9% 52.3% 42.9%
Dow -8.4% 26.9% 52.3% 42.9%
有限合伙人 9.3% 44.5% 74.7% 107.2%
Limited Partners 9.3% 44.5% 74.7% 107.2%
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原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
1957 – 61 年 1957 – 62 年 1957 – 63 年 1957 – 64 年 年复利增长率
1957 – 61 1957 – 62 1957 – 63 1957 – 64 Annual Compounded Rate
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
71.3% 54.5% 85.4% 114.9% 10.0% 76.9% 53.2% 78.5% 104.0% 9.3% 70.8% 46.2% 80.8% 105.4% 9.4% 77.4% 59.7% 88.9% 112.7% 9.9% 74.9% 61.6% 94.9% 131.3% 11.1% 181.6% 215.1% 311.2% 402.9% 22.3%
71.3% 54.5% 85.4% 114.9% 10.0% 76.9% 53.2% 78.5% 104.0% 9.3% 70.8% 46.2% 80.8% 105.4% 9.4% 77.4% 59.7% 88.9% 112.7% 9.9% 74.9% 61.6% 94.9% 131.3% 11.1% 181.6% 215.1% 311.2% 402.9% 22.3%
这些表格反复出现,合伙人不免要问:“这种事怎么偏偏发生在那些绝顶聪明的管理层身上?他们明明有(1)精明能干、精力旺盛的团队,(2)几乎用不完的资源,(3)最广泛的商业人脉,(4)加起来足足几个世纪的投资经验。”(最后这一条让我想起一个人去应聘,自称有二十年经验,前雇主却更正为“一年经验——重复了二十遍”。)这个问题极其重要,照理说,投资经理和大额投资者应当对它下过一番研究功夫。毕竟 300 亿美元每差一个百分点,一年就是 3 亿美元。奇怪的是,华尔街的文献里几乎找不到人正视这个问题,证券分析师协会的会议、行业年会、研讨会上,也几乎无人提及。在我看来,任何投资管理机构的头等大事,是先剖析自己的方法和成绩,再去评判美国那些大公司的管理能力与经营业绩。绝大多数情况下,业绩超不过甚至追不上一个无人打理的指数,并不说明这些人缺乏才智或欠缺操守。我认为,问题更多出在以下几点:(1)群体决策——我这看法或许有些偏激:任何规模的群体,只要人人都实际参与决策,几乎不可能孕育出色的投资管理;(2)总想在政策上、在一定程度上也在持仓上,向其他声誉卓著的大机构看齐;(3)一种“随大流才安全”的制度环境,独立行动所得的个人回报,与它伴随的普遍风险完全不成比例;(4)死守某些并不合理的分散投资惯例;最后一点也很关键,(5)惰性。以上评论或许有失公允,或许连我们的统计对比也不公平——我们的持仓和操作方式,与表中那些投资公司相去甚远。但我相信,我们的合伙人和他们的股东都认定,各自的管理层追求的是同一个目标:在持续投资股票的前提下,以最小的永久性损失风险,博取最大的长期平均资本回报。既然目标相同,而多数合伙人若不投 BPL,大概也会把钱交给业绩与这些投资公司相仿的渠道,那么它们的成绩单,用来衡量我们自己的成果就有意义。毫无疑问,投资公司、投资顾问、信托部门等为投资者提供了重要服务——帮他们做到充分分散、保持长期眼光、省去投资决策与操作的麻烦,尤其是避开那些明摆着低劣、却总能诱人上钩的投资套路。除极少数外,这些机构并不明确承诺能带来卓越业绩,只是公众看到它们在广告里大讲“专业管理”,由此产生这样的联想,倒也不算离谱。作为合伙人,我向你们保证一件事:我今天认为前面那套业绩对比是有意义的,日后不论故事怎样收场,我依然会这样认为。相应地,若你们觉得这个标尺不合适,就请现在提出异议,并提出别的、可以事先约定而非事后套用的标准。
The repetition of these tables has caused partners to ask: "Why in the world does this happen to very intelligent managements working with (1) bright, energetic staff people, (2) virtually unlimited resources, (3) the most extensive business contacts, and (4) literally centuries of aggregate investment experience?" (The latter qualification brings to mind the fellow who applied for a job and stated he had twenty years of experience which was corrected by the former employer to read “one year's experience -twenty times.”) This question is of enormous importance, and you would expect it to be the subject of considerable study by investment managers and substantial investors. After all, each percentage point on $30 billion is $300 million per year. Curiously enough, there is practically nothing in the literature of Wall Street attracting this problem, and discussion of it is virtually absent at security analyst society meetings, conventions, seminars, etc. My opinion is that the first job of any investment management organization is to analyze its own techniques and results before pronouncing judgment on the managerial abilities and performance of the major corporate entities of the United States. In the great majority of cases the lack of performance exceeding or even matching an unmanaged index in no way reflects lack of either intellectual capacity or integrity. I think it is much more the product of: (1) group decisions - my perhaps jaundiced view is that it is close to impossible for outstanding investment management to come from a group of any size with all parties really participating in decisions; (2) a desire to conform to the policies and (to an extent) the portfolios of other large well-regarded organizations; (3) an institutional framework whereby average is "safe" and the personal rewards for independent action are in no way commensurate with the general risk attached to such action; (4) an adherence to certain diversification practices which are irrational; and finally and importantly, (5) inertia. Perhaps the above comments are unjust. Perhaps even our statistical comparisons are unjust. Both our portfolio and method of operation differ substantially from the investment companies in the table. However, I believe both our partners and their stockholders feel their managements are seeking the same goal - the maximum longterm average return on capital obtainable with the minimum risk of permanent loss consistent with a program of continuous investment in equities. Since we should have common goals, and most partners, as an alternative to their interest in BPL, would probably have their funds invested in media producing results comparable with these investment companies, I feel their performance record is meaningful in judging our own results. There is no question that an important service is provided to investors by investment companies, investment advisors, trust departments, etc. This service revolves around the attainment of adequate diversification, the preservation of a long-term outlook, the ease of handling investment decisions and mechanics, and most importantly, the avoidance of the patently inferior investment techniques which seem to entice some individuals. All but a few of the organizations do not specifically promise to deliver superior investment performance although it is perhaps not unreasonable for the public to draw such an inference from their advertised emphasis on professional management. One thing I pledge to you as partners - just as I consider the previously stated performance comparison to be meaningful now, so will I in future years, no, matter what tale unfolds. Correspondingly, I ask that you, if you do not feel such a standard to be relevant, register such disagreement now and suggest other standards which can be applied prospectively rather than retrospectively.
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还要补充一点——我并没有在表格里为全球最常用的投资顾问单独设一栏:贝尔管理(Bell management,即“自己管自己”)。那些关注体重、高尔夫成绩和油费账单的人,似乎偏不愿量化评估自己的投资管理能力,尽管这牵涉到世上最重要的客户——他们自己。评估马萨诸塞投资者信托或莱曼公司的管理业绩,或许有点学术趣味;但客观评价那个实际替你打理钱财的人——哪怕就是你本人——的业绩,才真正关乎真金白银。
One additional thought - I have not included a column in my table for the most widely-used investment advisor in the world - Bell management. People who watch their weight, golf scores, and fuel bills seem to shun quantitative evaluation of their investment management skills although it involves the most important client in the world - themselves. While it may be of academic interest to evaluate the management accomplishments of Massachusetts Investors Trust or Lehman Corporation, it is of enormous dollars-and-cents importance to evaluate objectively the accomplishments of the fellow who is actually handling your money - even if it’s you.
关于保守的问题
The Question of Conservatism
看着投资公司的业绩表,也许有人会问:“没错,可那些公司不是比合伙基金稳健得多吗?”你若拿这个问题去问投资公司的管理层,他们会实打实地告诉你,他们更保守。你若随便找一百位证券分析师来问,我敢说绝大多数也会站在投资公司这一边。我不这么看。我把 90% 以上的净资产押在 BPL,家里人大多也是这个比例——不过这只能证明我这看法有多真诚,并不能证明它有多正确。投资公司的资金摆布方式比我们更循规蹈矩,这一点确实无可辩驳。在很多人眼里,循规蹈矩和保守是一回事。在我看来,这想法错了。无论常规还是非常规,本身都谈不上保守。真正保守的做法,源于明智的假设、准确的事实和严密的推理。这些品质有时会导向常规之举,但也曾多次把人引向离经叛道。世界上某个角落,说不定还有人在按时召开“地平说学会”的例会呢。重要人物赞成我们,嗓门大的人赞成我们,或者一大群人赞成我们,都不会让我们更心安;他们反对,也不会让我们更不安。民意测验代替不了思考。真正让我们靠回椅背、面露微笑的时刻,是碰上一个自己看得懂的局面——事实清楚可查,路径一目了然。这时候,不管做法常规还是非常规,不管别人赞成还是反对,我们都觉得,自己正以保守的方式往前走。以上说法或许很主观。的确如此。你也许更想要一个客观的办法来看这个问题。我也一样。我认为,评判过往政策是否保守,有一个理性的办法:看它在下跌市场里的表现。我们表中只有三个下跌年份,很不巧(仅就这一测试而言),跌幅都不大。但这三年里,我们的投资业绩都明显好过任何一个更循规蹈矩的组合。具体来说,假如这三年接连出现,累计结果会是:三大陆公司
In looking at the table of investment company performance, the question might be asked: “Yes, but aren't those companies run more conservatively than the Partnership?" If you asked that question of the investment company managements, they, in absolute honesty, would say they were more conservative. If you asked the first hundred security analysts you met, I am sure that a very large majority of them also would answer for the investment companies. I would disagree. I have over 90% of my net worth in BPL, and most of my family have percentages in that area, but of course, that only demonstrates the sincerity of my view - not the validity of it. It is unquestionably true that the investment companies have their money more conventionally invested than we do. To many people conventionality is indistinguishable from conservatism. In my view, this represents erroneous thinking. Neither a conventional nor an unconventional approach, per se, is conservative. Truly conservative actions arise from intelligent hypotheses, correct facts and sound reasoning. These qualities may lead to conventional acts, but there have been many times when they have led to unorthodoxy. In some corner of the world they are probably still holding regular meetings of the Flat Earth Society. We derive no comfort because important people, vocal people, or great numbers of people agree with us. Nor do we derive comfort if they don't. A public opinion poll is no substitute for thought. When we really sit back with a smile on our face is when we run into a situation we can understand, where the facts are ascertainable and clear, and the course of action obvious. In that case - whether other conventional or unconventional - whether others agree or disagree - we feel - we are progressing in a conservative manner. The above may seem highly subjective. It is. You should prefer an objective approach to the question. I do. My suggestion as to one rational way to evaluate the conservativeness of past policies is to study performance in declining markets. We have only three years of declining markets in our table and unfortunately (for purposes of this test only) they were all moderate declines. In all three of these years we achieved appreciably better investment results than any of the more conventional portfolios. Specifically, if those three years had occurred in sequence, the cumulative results would have been: Tri-Continental Corp.
道琼斯指数
Dow
马萨诸塞投资者信托 莱曼公司
Mass. Investors Trust Lehman Corp.
投资者股票基金
Investors Stock Fund
有限合伙人
Limited Partners
-9.7% -20.6% -20.9% -22.3% -24.6% +45.0%
-9.7% -20.6% -20.9% -22.3% -24.6% +45.0%
这种对比我们并不认为有多关键,但确实有几分意义。比起“我们持有 AT&T、通用电气、IBM 和通用汽车(不管什么价),所以我们很保守”这样的说法,它显然要靠谱得多。无论如何,评判任何投资方案或管理者(包括自我管理)的保守程度,都应当立足于理性、客观的标准,而下跌市场中的表现,我认为至少算得上一项有意义的检验。
We don’t think this comparison is all important, but we do think it has some relevance. We certainly think it makes more sense than saying “We own (regardless of price) A.T. &T., General Electric, IBM and General Motors and are therefore conservative.” In any event, evaluation of the conservatism of any investment program or management (including self-management) should be based upon rational objective standards, and I suggest performance in declining markets to be at least one meaningful test.
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复利的乐趣
我们早期年报的读者不满足于只听当代投资见闻的流水账,他们渴望的,是唯有纵览数百年投资谋略、深挖到底才能带来的思想激荡。于是就有了本节。我们前两次钻进金融高手的神话,结果发现:伊莎贝拉女王(资助哥伦布远航)和弗朗索瓦一世(当年购入《蒙娜丽莎》)那两笔号称精明的投资,其实近乎理财上的疯癫。替他们辩护的人搬出一堆煽情的琐碎旧事,可任凭怎么攻,我们的复利表格纹丝未动。不过,有一条批评倒是有点扎人:有人指责本专栏基调偏灰,笔下尽是历史上的理财废柴。他们要求我们在这几页里也记下一个财务远见的故事,一个可供后世世代仰望的辉煌标杆。这样的故事,还真有一个,那就是曼哈顿的印第安人在 1626 年把整座岛甩给那位臭名昭著的败家子彼得·米纽伊特时,刻进史册的交易眼光。据我所知,他们净收 24 美元。米纽伊特由此得到 22.3 平方英里,折合约 621,688,320 平方英尺。参照可比成交价,虽难以给出精确估值,但每平方英尺按 20 美元估算尚属合理,如此算来,这座岛如今的地价约为 12,433,766,400 美元(125 亿美元)。在外行看来,这也许像笔不错的买卖。可印第安人只要拿到 6.5% 的回报(部落里那位共同基金推销员保准会向他们许下这个数),就足以反过来嘲笑米纽伊特了。按 6.5% 计算,24 美元在 338 年后会变成 42,105,772,800 美元(421 亿美元);他们若再挤出半个点、凑到 7%,现值就高达 2050 亿美元。这个话题就到此为止。你们中或许有人看待自己的投资,尺度要短得多。为方便各位,我们照例附上一张表,列出把 10 万美元按不同利率复利增长的结果:
10 年 20 年 30 年
The Joys of Compounding Readers of our early annual letters registered discontent at a mere recital of contemporary investment experience, but instead hungered for the intellectual stimulation that only could be provided by a depth study of investment strategy spanning the centuries. Hence, this section. Our last two excursions into the mythology of financial expertise have revealed that purportedly shrewd investments by Isabella (backing the voyage of Columbus) and Francis I (original purchase of Mona Lisa) bordered on fiscal lunacy. Apologists for these parties have presented an array of sentimental trivia. Through it all, our compounding tables have not been dented by attack. Nevertheless, one criticism has stung a bit. The charge has been made that this column has acquired a negative tone with only the financial incompetents of history receiving comment. We have been challenged to record on these pages a story of financial perspicacity which will be a bench mark of brilliance down through the ages. One story stands out. This, of course, is the saga of trading acumen etched into history by the Manhattan Indians when they unloaded their island to that notorious spendthrift, Peter Minuit in 1626. My understanding is that they received $24 net. For this, Minuit received 22.3 square miles which works out to about 621,688,320 square feet. While on the basis of comparable sales, it is difficult to arrive at a precise appraisal, a $20 per square foot estimate seems reasonable giving a current land value for the island of $12,433,766,400 ($12 1/2 billion). To the novice, perhaps this sounds like a decent deal. However, the Indians have only had to achieve a 6 1/2% return (The tribal mutual fund representative would have promised them this.) to obtain the last laugh on Minuit. At 6 1/2%, $24 becomes $42,105,772,800 ($42 billion) in 338 years, and if they just managed to squeeze out an extra half point to get to 7%, the present value becomes $205 billion. So much for that. Some of you may view your investment policies on a shorter term basis. For your convenience, we include our usual table indicating the gains from compounding $100,000 at various rates: 10 Years 20 Years 30 Years
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
4% $48,024 $119,111 $224,337 8% $115,892 $366,094 $906,260 12% $210,584 $864,627 $2,895,970 16% $341,143 $1,846,060 $8,484,940
4% $48,024 $119,111 $224,337 8% $115,892 $366,094 $906,260 12% $210,584 $864,627 $2,895,970 16% $341,143 $1,846,060 $8,484,940
这张表道出了以下几种财务上的好处:
This table indicates the financial advantages of:
(1)活得长(用金融圈行家的雅语说,这叫“玛土撒拉大法”);(2)复利率高;(3)二者兼得(本作者尤其推荐)。值得留意的是,年化收益率哪怕只提升一点点,累积起来的好处也大得惊人。这正解释了我们的态度:一面盼着能把平均业绩远远甩在身后,一面又把每一个高于平均的百分点都当真看待。我们的目标
(1) A long life (in the erudite vocabulary of the financial sophisticate this is referred to as the Methusalah Technique) (2) A high compound rate (3) A combination of both (especially recommended by this author) To be observed are the enormous benefits produced by relatively small gains in the annual earnings rate. This explains our attitude which while hopeful of achieving a striking margin of superiority over average investment results, nevertheless, regards every percentage point of investment return above average as having real meaning. Our Goal
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你会发现,前面那张表里既没有合伙基金 8 年间 27.7% 的年均收益一栏,也没有有限合伙人 22.3% 的年均收益。这类数字放到长期看毫无意义,原因有几条(放心,我可不是靠“留一手”来给这番预言兜底):(1)任何一笔可观的资金,按这样的速度复利下去,用不了多久规模就会向国债看齐,快得吓人。(2)我们这 8 年里,证券市场普遍重估,使整个普通股领域的年均总回报达到了一个水平,而这个水平我认为往后几十年都难以再现。放到 20 年或 30 年的跨度看,我预计道指的年均总回报更接近 6% 到 7%,而非我们这段短暂历史中的 11.1%。单这一条,就会把我们的年均复利拉低大约 4 个百分点。1965 年道指只要跌 20.5%,这九年的平均值就会掉到 7%。持有股票的人,本就该料到时不时会碰上这样(甚至更糟)的年份。如果你的股票(比如 BPL)市值一跌 20% 或 30%,你就情绪崩溃或财务吃紧,那你干脆别碰普通股这类投资。用那位诗人——哈里·杜鲁门的话说:“受不了热,就别进厨房。”当然,最好是在跨进“厨房”之前,就把这个问题想明白。(3)我们认为,合伙基金长期领先道指 16.6 个百分点、或有限合伙人长期领先 11.2 个百分点,是维持不住的。我们已连续 8 年跑赢道指,尽管其中有一年,在利润分配之后,有限合伙人的收益没能追上道指。今后肯定会有那么些年份(注意是复数),合伙基金业绩不如道指,届时普通合伙人会痛心疾首(但愿有限合伙人别太难受)。到那时,我们的平均超额收益就会陡然下滑。我也想说,我们仍会有些年份保持相当漂亮的领先。只不过,到目前为止,我们占了一个便宜:平均业绩里还没掺进过平庸(乃至更糟)的年份,而这显然不可能是常态。那么,我们究竟能指望做到多少?当然,我说的任何话多半都是猜测,况且我这套投资哲学向来认为:预言更多暴露的是预言者本人的软肋,而非未来的模样。尽管如此,作为合伙人,你们有权知道我的预期,哪怕它再站不住脚。我盼着我们的长期轨迹能大致沿着下面的路子展开:(1)道指年均总回报(当然含股息)在 7% 上下,
You will note that there are no columns in the preceding table for the 27.7% average of the Partnership during its eight-year lifespan or the 22.3% average of the limited partners. Such figures are nonsensical for the long term for several reasons: (Don't worry about me "holding back" to substantiate this prophecy.) (1) Any significant sums compounded at such rates take on national debt proportions at alarming speed. (2) During our eight-year history a general revaluation of securities has produced average annual rates of overall gain from the whole common stock field which I believe unattainable in future decades. Over a span of 20 or 30 years, I would expect something more like 6% - 7% overall annual gain from the Dow instead of the 11.1% during our brief history. This factor alone would tend to knock 4 points or so off of our annual compounding rate. It would only take a minus 20.5% year in 1965 for the Dow to bring it down to a 7% average figure for the nine years. Such years (or worse) should definitely be expected from time to time by those holding equity investments. If a 20% or 30% drop in the market value of your equity holdings (such as BPL) is going to produce emotional or financial distress, you should simply avoid common stock type investments. In the words of the poet - Harry Truman – “If you can’t stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen. It is preferable, of course, to consider the problem before you enter the “kitchen.” (3) We do not consider it possible on an extended basis to maintain the 16.6 percentage point advantage over the Dow of the Partnership or the 11.2 percentage point edge enjoyed by the limited partners. We have had eight consecutive years in which our pool of money has out-performed the Dow, although the profit allocation arrangement left the limited partners short of Dow results in one of those years. We are certain to have years (note the plural) when the Partnership results fall short of the Dow despite considerable gnashing of teeth by the general partner (I hope not too much by the limited partners). When that happens our average margin of superiority will drop sharply. I might say that I also think we will continue to have some years of very decent margins in our favor. However, to date we have benefited by the fact that we have not had a really mediocre (or worse) year included in our average, and this obviously cannot be expected to be a permanent experience. So what can we expect to achieve? Of course, anything I might say is largely guesswork, and my own investment philosophy has developed around the theory that prophecy reveals far more of the frailties of the prophet than it reveals of the future. Nevertheless, you, as partners, are entitled to know my expectations, tenuous as they may be. I am hopeful that our longer term experience will unfold along the following basis: (1) An overall gain from the Dow (including dividends, of course) averaging in the area of 7% per annum,
而在逼近这个均值的过程中,波动照例会很大——极端时大致落在负 40% 到正 50% 之间,多数年份则在负 10% 到正 20% 的区间里;(2)向普通合伙人计提之前,BPL 每年平均领先道指 10 个百分点——这个差距同样起落很大,糟糕的年份可能比道指还差 10 个百分点,而万事顺遂时则能领先 25 个百分点;(3)把这两个假设相乘,BPL 的平均回报约为 17%,有限合伙人约为 14%。这个数字逐年会有天壤之别,最终的波动幅度,自然要看第(1)、(2)两条里那些极端情形如何交织。我想强调,以上纯属推测,且很可能被自身利益、虚荣心等因素严重左右。稍有金融史常识的人都明白,这类臆测的误差大得惊人。这段话本可以从信里删去,但它是合伙人经常问、也理应问的问题。长期
exhibiting customarily wide amplitudes in achieving this average -- say, on the order or minus 40% to plus 50% at the extremes with the majority of years in the minus 10% to plus 20% range; (2) An average advantage of ten percentage points per annum for BPL before allocation to the general partner - again with large amplitudes in the margin from perhaps 10 percentage points worse than the Dow in a bad year to 25 percentage points better when everything clicks; and (3) The product of these two assumptions gives an average of 17% to BPL or about 14% to limited partners. This figure would vary enormously from year to year; the final amplitudes, of course, depending, on the interplay of the extremes hypothesized in (1) and (2). I would like to emphasize that the above is conjecture, perhaps heavily influenced by self-interest, ego, etc. Anyone with a sense of financial history knows this sort of guesswork is subject to enormous error. It might better be left out of this letter, but it is a question frequently and legitimately asked by partners. Long-range
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可预期的回报,是我们 BPL 全体成员的头等关切,我理当白纸黑字表个态,哪怕日后可能显得可笑。我抱有一种颇为清教徒式的看法:任何投资管理人,无论是经纪人、投资顾问、信托部门、投资公司等等,都应当毫不含糊地讲清自己打算达成什么,又打算用什么标准来衡量完成的程度。
expectable return is the primary consideration of all of us belonging to BPL, and it is reasonable that I should be put on record, foolish as that may later make me appear. My rather puritanical view is that any investment manager, whether operating as broker, investment counselor, trust department, Investment Company, etc., should be willing to state unequivocally what he is going to attempt to accomplish and how he proposes to measure the extent to which he gets the job done.
我们的操作方法
Our Method of Operation
在过往的年报里,我一直用三个类别来描述我们所做的投资操作。如今我觉得分成四类更妥当。新增“相对低估的普通股”这一类别,一部分是出于我对老“普通股”类别中一直微弱存在的本质差异的进一步思考;一部分是因为一个曾经极小的子类,如今在整个组合中的分量越来越重——这一日益突出的地位,伴随着迄今相当出色的成绩,说明我们为在这一领域寻找更多机会而投入的大量时间与精力是值得的;最后,它也部分反映出我们研发并落地了一套新颖、颇为独特的投资手法,旨在提高这类操作的期望值和稳定性。
In past annual letters I have always utilized three categories to describe investment operations we conduct. I now feel that a four-category division is more appropriate. Partially, the addition of a new section - "Generals Relatively Undervalued" - reflects my further consideration of essential differences that have always existed to a small extent with our "Generals" group. Partially, it reflects the growing importance of what once was a very small sub-category but is now a much more significant part of our total portfolio. This increasing importance has been accompanied by excellent results to date justifying significant time and effort devoted to finding additional opportunities in this area. Finally, it partially reflects the development and implementation of a new and somewhat unique investment technique designed to improve the expectancy and consistency of operations
因此,我们目前的四个类别是:
in this category. Therefore, our four present categories are:
- “普通股——私有所有者角度”——这一类是总体被低估的股票,凭定量标准挑出,但也相当看重定性因素。它们往往没有多少迹象预示股价即将回升,缺乏话题热度,也无人在市场上捧场。它们唯一拿得出手的资格就是价格便宜——也就是说,整个企业的估值远低于审慎分析所判定的、对私有所有者而言应有的价值。我要再强调一遍:定量分析在先、不可或缺,但定性因素同样重要。我们喜欢好的管理层,喜欢像样的行业,也喜欢原本一潭死水、管理层或股东群体中冒出些许“躁动”。但我们不肯在价值上让步。这一类里,我们常常握有那种令人称心的“一弓双弦”局面:要么靠外部因素推动市价上涨,要么以便宜价格拿下企业控股权。前者在绝大多数情况下都会发生,后者则相当于一份大多数投资操作都没有的保险。我们在 1964 年年中报告里提到、且身为第一大股东的那三家公司,持仓仍在继续增加。三家公司的基本价值都以相当令人满意的速度增长,其中两家我们完全袖手旁观,第三家也只做极小程度的参与。这三家公司里,我们大概率不会深度介入决策,但一旦需要,我们随时准备出手。
- “普通股——相对低估”——这一类,是相较同等质地的证券卖得相对便宜的股票。我们要求与当前估值标准存在明显落差,但(通常因为体量太大)不觉得“私有所有者价值”这个概念在此有多大意义。当然,这一类里关键是拿苹果比苹果、而非拿苹果比橙子,我们为此下足了功夫。绝大多数时候,我们对某个行业或公司了解不够,做不出明智判断——这种情况我们就放手。前面说过,这个新类别一直在壮大,成绩也很令人满意。我们最近开始试行一套手法,有望大幅降低估值标准整体变动带来的风险。举个例子:我们以 12 倍市盈率买入某只股票,而可比或质地更差的公司卖到 20 倍市盈率,可随后市场发生重大重估,后者只剩 10 倍。这种风险一直令我们极为不安,因为相比“普通股——私有所有者角度”或“套利”那两类,我们会陷入无计可施的被动。如今这重风险既已减轻,我们认为这一类前景可期。
1. “Generals -Private Owner Basis” - a category of generally undervalued stocks, determined by quantitative standards, but with considerable attention also paid to the qualitative factor. There is often little or nothing to indicate immediate market improvement. The issues lack glamour or market sponsorship. Their main qualification is a bargain price; that is, an overall valuation of the enterprise substantially below what careful analysis indicates its value to a private owner to be. Again, let me emphasize that while the quantitative comes first and is essential, the qualitative is important. We like good management - we like a decent industry - we like a certain amount of “ferment” in a previously dormant management or stockholder group. But, we demand value. Many times in this category we have the desirable "two strings to our bow" situation where we should either achieve appreciation of market prices from external factors or from the acquisition of a controlling position in a business at a bargain price. While the former happens in the overwhelming majority of cases, the latter represents an insurance policy most investment operations don't have. We have continued to enlarge the positions in the three companies described in our 1964 midyear report where we are the largest stockholder. All three companies are increasing their fundamental value at a very satisfactory rate, and we are completely passive in two situations and active only on a very minor scale in the third. It is unlikely that we will ever take a really active part in policy-making in any of these three companies, but we stand ready if needed. 2. "Generals -Relatively Undervalued" - this category consists of securities selling at prices relatively cheap compared to securities of the same general quality. We demand substantial discrepancies from current valuation standards, but (usually because of large size) do not feel value to a private owner to be a meaningful concept. It is important in this category, of course, that apples be compared to apples - and not to oranges, and we work hard at achieving that end. In the great majority of cases we simply do not know enough about the industry or company to come to sensible judgments -in that situation we pass. As mentioned earlier, this new category has been growing and has produced very satisfactory results. We have recently begun to implement a technique, which gives promise of very substantially reducing the risk from an overall change in valuation standards; e.g. I we buy something at 12 times earnings when comparable or poorer quality companies sell at 20 times earnings, but then a major revaluation takes place so the latter only sell at 10 times. This risk has always bothered us enormously because of the helpless position in which we could be left compared to the "Generals -Private Owner" or "Workouts" types. With this risk diminished, we think this category has a promising future.
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- “套利”——这类证券带着时间表。它们缘于公司层面的动作——整体出售、合并、重组、分拆等等。这一类里,我们说的不是关于这些进展的传闻或“内幕消息”,而是已经公开宣布的动作。我们要等到能在报纸上读到,才动手。这里的风险,主要不在于大盘的涨跌(尽管有时也多少牵连其中),而在于半路杀出个变故、让原本预期的进展落了空。这类扫兴事包括反垄断或其他不利的政府举动、股东否决、税务裁定迟迟不下等等。许多套利操作的毛利看着相当微薄,有点像专挑那些还剩几分钟余额的停车计时器。可正因为结果好预料、持有期又短,即便算上偶尔的重大亏损,年均回报率仍相当不俗。这一类逐年产出的绝对利润,比普通股稳定得多。市场下跌的年份,它通常能为我们攒下一大截优势;牛市里,它多半会拖累业绩。长期看,我预计套利操作对道指的超额幅度,会跟普通股不相上下。
- “控股”——这类很罕见,可一旦出现,规模往往相当可观。除非一开始就买进一大块,否则控股大多是从“普通股——私有所有者角度”一类里演变出来的。它们的由来是这样:一只便宜的证券在价格上长期毫无动静,久到我们能把公司相当比例的股份买下来。到那一步,我们大概就有条件对公司事务施加部分乃至完全的控制。此时我们是主动介入还是继续相对被动,要看我们对公司前景和管理层能力的判断。我们不想为了介入而介入。其他条件相同的话,我宁可让别人去操劳。但一旦非得主动出手、把资本用到最优不可,你们尽可放心,我们绝不会袖手旁观。无论主动还是被动,控股这类操作里都应内嵌一份利润。它成立的先决条件,是买价足够诱人。控制权一旦到手,我们这笔投资的价值就取决于企业本身的价值,而非市场那些三天两头的非理性。前面在“普通股——私有所有者角度”里提到、我们目前身为第一大股东的那三家,凭着它们“两头都能伸展”的特性,都有可能转成控股。那样对我们很好,而若它们在市场上涨到更贴近内在价值、让我们得以卖出,从而漂亮收官一笔“普通股——私有所有者角度”操作,那也一样称心。控股这一类的投资成果,至少得放到好几年里去衡量。买得妥当需要时间;若有必要,加强管理、重新调配资本运用、也许还要促成一桩满意的出售或合并等等,都是让这门生意得按年、而非按月来计的因素。正因如此,做控股时我们追求宽厚的利润空间——但凡显得没多少把握,我们就放弃权利。控股在买入阶段大体随道指同向而动,到了后期,其表现则更贴近套利。你们或许有兴趣知道,我们此前那桩控股——邓普斯特农机制造公司,如今的买家似乎经营得很不错。这既符合我们的预期,也让我们颇感欣慰。一门指望最终买家做冤大头的投资操作(华尔街管这叫“博傻理论”),实在靠不住。远不如以足够便宜的价格买进,这样哪怕只是寻常出手,也能有个愉快的结局。正如我过去所讲,我们的组合在各类别间怎么分配,很大程度上取决于
3. "Workouts" - these are the securities with a timetable. They arise from corporate activity - sell-outs, mergers, reorganizations, spin-offs, etc. In this category we are not talking about rumors or "inside information" pertaining to such developments, but to publicly announced activities of this sort. We wait until we can read it in the paper. The risk pertains not primarily to general market behavior (although that is sometimes tied in to a degree), but instead to something upsetting the applecart so that the expected development does not materialize. Such killjoys could include anti-trust or other negative government action, stockholder disapproval, withholding of tax rulings, etc. The gross profits in many workouts appear quite small. It's a little like looking for parking meters with some time left on them. However, the predictability coupled with a short holding period produces quite decent average annual rates of return after allowance for the occasional substantial loss. This category produces more steady absolute profits from year to year than generals do. In years of market decline it should usually pile up a big edge for us; during bull markets it will probably be a drag on performance. On a long-term basis, I expect the workouts to achieve the same sort of margin over the Dow attained by generals. 4. "Controls" - these are rarities, but when they occur they are likely to be of significant size. Unless we start off with the purchase of a sizable block of stock, controls develop from the general - private owner category. They result from situations where a cheap security does nothing pricewise for such an extended period of time that we are able to buy a significant percentage of the company's stock. At that point we are probably in a position to assume a degree of or perhaps complete control of the company's activities. Whether we become active or remain relatively passive at this point depends upon our assessment of the company's future and the managements capabilities. We do not want to get active merely for the sake of being active. Everything else being equal, I would much rather let others do the work. However, when an active role is necessary to optimize the employment of capital, you can be sure we will not be standing in the wings. Active or passive, in a control situation there should be a built-in profit. The sine qua non of this operation is an attractive purchase price. Once control is achieved, the value of our investment is determined by the value of the enterprise, not the oftentimes irrationalities of the market place. Any of the three situations where we are now the largest stockholders mentioned under Generals - Private Owner could, by virtue of the two-way stretch they possess, turn into controls. That would suit us fine, but it also suits us if they advance in the market to a price more in line with intrinsic value enabling us to sell them, thereby completing a successful generals - private owner operation. Investment results in the control category have to be measured on the basis of at least several years. Proper buying takes time. If needed, strengthening management, redirecting the utilization of capital, perhaps effecting a satisfactory sale or merger, etc., are also all factors that make this a business to be measured in years rather than months. For this reason, in controls, we are looking for wide margins of profit -if it appears at all close, we quitclaim. Controls in the buying stage move largely in sympathy with the Dow. In the later stages their behavior is geared more to that of workouts. You might be interested to know that the buyers of our former control situation, Dempster Mill Manufacturing, seem to be doing very well with it. This fulfills our expectation and is a source of satisfaction. An investment operation that depends on the ultimate buyer making a bum deal (in Wall Street they call this the "Bigger Fool Theory") is tenuous indeed. How much more satisfactory it is to buy at really bargain prices so that only an average disposition brings pleasant results. As I have mentioned in the past, the division of our portfolio among categories is largely determined by the
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机会本身的偶然性。因此,任何一年里,普通股、套利、控股这几类之间的配比,大体是碰运气的事,而这个变幻莫测的因素,会大大左右我们相对道指的表现。这也是为什么单一年度的业绩无足轻重、无论好坏都不该太当真的原因之一。为了说明各类别间的分配纯属偶然、却又何等要紧,我拿过去三年作个例子。这里换了一套与衡量整个 BPL 业绩截然不同的算法——按各类别的月均市值来计,剔除借款和办公运营开支等(这最利于组间对比,但并不反映 BPL 的整体结果)——普通股(现有两类合并计算)、
accident of availability. Therefore, in any given year the mix between generals, workouts, or controls is largely a matter of chance, and this fickle factor will have a great deal to do with our performance relative to the Dow. This is one of many reasons why single year's performance is of minor importance and good or bad, should never be taken too seriously. To give an example of just how important the accident of division between these categories is, let me cite the example of the past three years. Using an entirely different method of calculation than that used to measure the performance of BPL in entirety, whereby the average monthly investment at market value by category is utilized, borrowed money and office operating expenses excluded, etc., (this gives the most accurate basis for intergroup comparisons but does not reflect overall BPL results) the generals (both present categories
合并计算)以及套利和道指,三者的结果如下:
combined), workouts, and the Dow, shape up as follows:
年份 1962 1963 1964
Year 1962 1963 1964
普通股 -1.0% 20.5% 27.8%
Generals -1.0% 20.5% 27.8%
套利 14.6% 30.6% 10.3%
Workouts 14.6% 30.6% 10.3%
道指 -8.6% 18.4% 16.7%
Dow -8.6% 18.4% 16.7%
显而易见,1962 年是套利类(连同控股类)救了场;那一年如果我们在这类投资上仓位轻,最终成绩就会差得多——尽管考虑到当年的市况,依然算得上相当体面。那年我们完全可能在套利类上配得少得多;是机会的可得性决定了配比,而非我对市场走向有什么判断。因此,必须认识到,1962 年我们在类别配比上纯属走运。1963 年,我们有一笔极为出色的套利交易,极大地拉动了业绩,普通股也表现不俗,成就了一个丰收年。倘若套利类只是正常发挥(譬如更像 1962 年那样),我们跟道指相比就会逊色许多。那一年帮了我们大忙的不是类别配比,而是几个绝佳的机会。最后,到了 1964 年,套利类成了业绩的严重拖累。在道指大涨的年份(比如 1964 年),这本来就在所难免,但因为当年表现平平,拖累程度甚至超过了预期。事后看,当时全配普通股该有多好,可我们投资不能回头看。我希望前面这张表能讲透一个道理:某一年的成绩会受到诸多变量的影响——其中一些是我们几乎无法控制、也看不清楚的。我们认为这几类投资全都是好的营生,也很庆幸自己有好几条腿可以依靠,而不是只靠一条。这让我们在每一类内部都能更精挑细选,也降低了因某一类机会枯竭而彻底歇业的风险。
Obviously the workouts (along with controls) saved the day in 1962, and if we had been light in this category that year, our final result would have been much poorer, although still quite respectable considering market conditions during the year. We could just as well have had a much smaller percentage of our portfolio in workouts that year; availability decided it, not any notion on my part as to what the market was going to do. Therefore, it is important to realize that in 1962 we were just plain lucky regarding mix of categories. In 1963 we had one sensational workout which greatly influenced results, and generals gave a good account of themselves, resulting in a banner year. If workouts had been normal, (say, more like 1962) we would have looked much poorer compared to the Dow. Here it wasn't our mix that did much for us, but rather excellent situations. Finally, in 1964 workouts were a big drag on performance. This would be normal in any event during a big plus year for the Dow such as 1964, but they were even a greater drag than expected because of mediocre experience. In retrospect it would have been pleasant to have been entirely in generals, but we don’t play the game in retrospect. I hope the preceding table drives home the point that results in a given year are subject to many variables - some regarding which we have little control or insight. We consider all categories to be good businesses and we are very happy we have several to rely on rather than just one. It makes for more discrimination within each category and reduces the chance we will be put completely out of operation by the elimination of opportunities in a single category.
税收
Taxes
今年合伙人对自己的税负发出了一片叫苦声。当然,就算税单一片空白,恐怕也有人叫苦。在投资里,本来相当聪明的人所犯的错,多半是因“税务考量”而起,远胜于其他任何缘由。我的一位朋友——一位著名的西海岸哲学家——认为,人生中的大多数错误,都源于忘了自己究竟想做什么。当税收这种情绪极易被点燃的因素掺进来时,这话就更是切中要害了(我还有另一位朋友——一位著名的东海岸哲学家——说,他介意的不是“无代表”,而是“纳税”)。还是回到西海岸那位。在投资的世界里,一个人究竟想做什么?并不是把税交到最少——
We have had a chorus of groans this year regarding partners' tax liabilities. Of course, we also might have had a few if the tax sheet had gone out blank. More investment sins are probably committed by otherwise quite intelligent people because of "tax considerations" than from any other cause. One of my friends - a noted West Coast philosopher maintains that a majority of life's errors are caused by forgetting what one is really trying to do. This is certainly the case when an emotionally supercharged element like taxes enters the picture (I have another friend -a noted East Coast philosopher who says it isn't the lack of representation he minds -it's the taxation). Let's get back to the West Coast. What is one really trying to do in the investment world? Not pay the least
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虽然少交税也许是达成目标过程中要考虑的一个因素,但绝不能把手段和目的混为一谈。目的始终是拿到最高的税后复利。很明显,如果两种做法许诺的税前复利相同,一种要交税、一种不用,那不用交税的自然更优。可是,我们发现这种情况少之又少。比如,从大约 3000 只股票中选出 20 只,指望它们此时此刻是最优组合,一年之后,在价格(无论所选股还是备选股)截然不同的情况下,它们依然是最优组合——这几乎是不可能的。如果我们的目标是把税后复利做到最大,那就只能持有在当前价位下最具吸引力的证券。而面对 3000 个变化相当快的变量,这必然意味着要调仓(但愿是“产生税负”的调仓)。显然,一只股票去年或上个月表现如何,这件事本身既不是现在持有它的理由,也不是现在不持有它的理由。显然,在一只已经下跌的股票上“能不能回本”,根本不重要。显然,去年攥住一只大牛股所产生的那种心头暖意,对于判断它今年该不该进入最优组合,同样毫无意义。如果涉及盈利,调整组合就要交税。除极个别情况外(我痛快地承认,确实存在一些这样的情况),如果预期业绩的差距足够显著,税额高低就无关紧要了。我一直想不通,为什么税收会对许多人构成如此沉重的打击——毕竟长期资本利得的税率,比大多数行当的所得税率都低(税收政策等于在表明:挖沟渠在社会价值上还不如倒腾股票凭证)。在座各位大多注重实际,我还是别唱这种理想主义的高调了。归根到底,想最终不交这笔税,只有三条路:(1)攥着资产入土——这对我来说未免太“终极”了,哪怕最狂热的人面对这剂“药方”恐怕也会五味杂陈;(2)把资产送人——这样你的确一分税不用交,但当然,你也就没钱付杂货、房租了;(3)把赚来的利润再亏回去——你要是对这个“节税妙招”垂涎三尺,我不得不佩服你,你可真有那股为信念豁出去的劲头。所以,BPL 会一如既往地奉行这样的方针:力求把投资收益做到最大,而不是把税收压到最低。我们会竭尽全力为国库创造最多的税收——在规则所允许的最低税率之下。说到税收与投资管理这整件事,近几年冒出一个有意思的插曲,那就是所谓“互换基金”的问世。这类投资公司是通过用自家股份,去交换潜在投资者手里持有的普通市场证券而成立的。其主打卖点,是在把单一证券换成多元化组合的同时,递延资本利得税(“递延”这个词,从热情的推销员嘴里蹦出来时,读音有时和“免除”近得可疑)。这笔税只有等到互换基金的份额被赎回时才最终缴纳;至于那些幸运儿,只要前面两段提到的那几种美妙结局中有任何一种兑现,这税就彻底躲过了。互换者这种行为背后隐含的逻辑,倒是耐人寻味。他显然并不是真想留着手里的东西,否则不会一有机会就急不可耐地换掉(而且还付一笔相当可观的佣金——通常高达 10 万美元),去换来一堆由其他被税收麻痹了的投资者手中同样烫手的杂货。平心而论,我应当指出:在所有的出让方都交出证券、并有机会审阅拟议投资组合之后,他们还可以反悔退出,但据我所知,这么做的人比例相当小。自 1960 年这一想法问世以来,据我所知已有 12 只这样的基金成立,眼下还有几只在筹备中。这主意并非没有吸引力,因为销售总额已远超 6 亿美元。所有这些基金都聘请了一位投资经理,通常向其支付资产价值 0.5% 的费用。这位投资经理面临一个有趣的两难:他领钱是为了明智地管理基金(在最大的五只基金中,这笔年费目前从 25 万美元到 70 万美元不等),可是由于从证券出资人那里继承来极低的税基,
taxes, although that may be a factor to be considered in achieving the end. Means and end should not be confused, however, and the end is to come away with the largest after-tax rate of compound. Quite obviously if two courses of action promise equal rates of pre-tax compound and one involves incurring taxes and the other doesn't the latter course is superior. However, we find this is rarely the case. It is extremely improbable that 20 stocks selected from, say, 3000 choices are going to prove to be the optimum portfolio both now and a year from now at the entirely different prices (both for the selections and the alternatives) prevailing at that later date. If our objective is to produce the maximum after-tax compound rate, we simply have to own the most attractive securities obtainable at current prices, And, with 3,000 rather rapidly shifting variables, this must mean change (hopefully “tax-generating” change). It is obvious that the performance of a stock last year or last month is no reason, per se, to either own it or to not own it now. It is obvious that an inability to "get even" in a security that has declined is of no importance. It is obvious that the inner warm glow that results from having held a winner last year is of no importance in making a decision as to whether it belongs in an optimum portfolio this year. If gains are involved, changing portfolios involves paying taxes. Except in very unusual cases (I will readily admit there are some cases), the amount of the tax is of minor importance if the difference in expectable performance is significant. I have never been able to understand why the tax comes as such a body blow to many people since the rate on long-term capital gain is lower than on most lines of endeavor (tax policy indicates digging ditches is regarded as socially less desirable than shuffling stock certificates). I have a large percentage of pragmatists in the audience so I had better get off that idealistic kick. There are only three ways to avoid ultimately paying the tax: (1) die with the asset - and that's a little too ultimate for me even the zealots would have to view this "cure" with mixed emotions; (2) give the asset away - you certainly don't pay any taxes this way, but of course you don't pay for any groceries, rent, etc., either; and (3) lose back the gain if your mouth waters at this tax-saver, I have to admire you -you certainly have the courage of your convictions. So it is going to continue to be the policy of BPL to try to maximize investment gains, not minimize taxes. We will do our level best to create the maximum revenue for the Treasury -at the lowest rates the rules will allow. An interesting sidelight on this whole business of taxes, vis-à-vis investment management, has appeared in the last few years. This has arisen through the creation of so-called "swap funds" which are investment companies created by the exchange of the investment company's shares for general market securities held by potential investors. The dominant sales argument has been the deferment (deferment, when pronounced by an enthusiastic salesman, sometimes comes very close phonetically to elimination) of capital gains taxes while trading a single security for a diversified portfolio. The tax will only finally be paid when the swap fund's shares are redeemed. For the lucky ones, it will be avoided entirely when any of those delightful alternatives mentioned two paragraphs earlier eventuates. The reasoning implicit in the swapee's action is rather interesting. He obviously doesn't really want to hold what he is holding or he wouldn't jump at the chance to swap it (and pay a fairly healthy commission - usually up to $100,000) for a grab-bag of similar hot potatoes held by other tax-numbed investors. In all fairness, I should point out that after all offerees have submitted their securities for exchange and had a chance to review the proposed portfolio they have a chance to back out but I understand a relatively small proportion do so. There have been twelve such funds (that I know of) established since origination of the idea in 1960, and several more are currently in the works. The idea is not without appeal since sales totaled well over $600 million. All of the funds retain an investment manager to whom they usually pay 1/2 of 1% of asset value. This investment manager faces an interesting problem; he is paid to manage the fund intelligently (in each of the five largest funds this fee currently ranges from $250,000 to $700,000 per year), but because of the low tax basis inherited
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他几乎每动一步,都会产生资本利得税负。而他当然也清楚,一旦他导致了这类税负,受到影响的正是那些可能对税收极其敏感的人——否则他们当初压根就不会持有互换基金的份额。我这话说得有些重,我也确信,在某些情形下,互换基金对个人而言,或许正是应对税收与投资两难的最佳答案。尽管如此,我觉得它们提供了一个很有意思的试管,可以用来检测一些最受推崇的投资顾问,在不必缴纳(大额)税的前提下管钱的本事。三只最大的互换基金都成立于 1961 年,如今合并资产大约 3 亿美元。其中一只——Diversification Fund,是按财政年度报告业绩的,这使得从中提取可供日历年度对比的数据相当困难。另外两只——Federal Street Fund 和 Westminster Fund(在这批基金中分别排第一和第三大)——则是由掌管着至少 20 亿美元机构资金的投资顾问打理的。
from the contributors of securities, virtually his every move creates capital gains tax liabilities. And, of course, he knows that if he incurs such liabilities, he is doing so for people who are probably quite sensitive to taxes or they wouldn't own shares in the swap fund in the first place. I am putting all of this a bit strongly, and I am sure there are some cases where a swap fund may be the best answer to an individual's combined tax and investment problems. Nevertheless, I feel they offer a very interesting test-tube to measure the ability of some of the most respected investment advisors when they are trying to manage money without paying (significant) taxes. The three largest swap funds were all organized in 1961, and combined have assets now of about $300 million. One of these, Diversification Fund, reports on a fiscal year basis which makes extraction of relevant data quite difficult for calendar year comparisons. The other two, Federal Street Fund and Westminster Fund (respectively first and third largest in the group) are managed by investment advisors who oversee at least $2 billion of institutional money.
以下是它们在所有完整年度的表现:
Here's how they shape up for all full years of existence:
年份 1962 1963 1964 年复合回报率
Year 1962 1963 1964 Annual Compounded Rate
Federal Street -19.0% 17.0% 13.8% 2.6%
Federal Street -19.0% 17.0% 13.8% 2.6%
Westminster -22.5% 18.7% 12.3% 1.1%
Westminster -22.5% 18.7% 12.3% 1.1%
道琼斯指数 -7.6% 20.6% 18.7% 9.8%
Dow -7.6% 20.6% 18.7% 9.8%
这纯粹是管理业绩的记录。既没有扣除入场佣金,基金替股东缴纳的任何税款也都加回到了业绩里。还有谁想交税吗?
This is strictly the management record. No allowance has been made for the commission in entering and any taxes paid by the fund on behalf of the shareholders have been added back to performance. Anyone for taxes?
杂项
Miscellaneous
12 月 21 日那一期《汽车新闻》报道,福特汽车公司计划在 1965 年斥资 7 亿美元,为其全球设施增加 6,742,000 平方英尺。巴菲特合伙有限公司向来不甘落后,也计划在 1965 年春天,为自家设施添上 227.25 平方英尺。我们的净资产从 1956 年 5 月 5 日第一家前身有限合伙公司(巴菲特联合有限公司)成立时的 105,100 美元(那 100 美元是谁出的,猜中也没奖),增长到了 1965 年 1 月 1 日的 26,074,000 美元,这便产生了偶尔重整内部流程的需要。因此,大致在我们从 682 平方英尺豪迈迈向 909.25 平方英尺的同时,一位十分能干的人将加入我们,负责行政(以及某些其他)职能。这一举措尤其能腾出比尔·斯科特更多的时间,让他可以专注于自己最擅长的证券分析。这件事我会在年中信里详细报告。比尔(他仍然干得极为出色)和他太太在合伙公司里投入了 298,749 美元,这占了他们净资产的绝大部分。我们的新同事(在他现雇主找到替代者之前,姓名暂且保密),连同太太和孩子,也在合伙公司里投进了一笔数额不小的资金。苏茜和我目前在 BPL 持有 3,406,700 美元的权益,这几乎代表了我们的全部净资产,唯一的例外是我们继续持有的中大陆制表卡公司,这是一家本地公司,我在 1960 年它股东还不到 10 人时买入。此外,我的亲属——包括三个孩子、母亲、两个姐妹、两个连襟、岳父、四位姑姨、四位表亲以及六个外甥侄辈——直接或间接地在 BPL 持有的权益共计 1,942,592 美元。所以,我们全家都还在吃着自家做的饭。
In the December 21st issue of AUTOMOTIVE NEWS it was reported that Ford Motor Co. plans to spend $700 million in 1965 to add 6,742,000 square feet to its facilities throughout the world. Buffett Partnership, Ltd., never far behind, plans to add 227 1/4 square feet to its facilities in the spring of 1965. Our growth in net assets from $105,100 (there's no prize for guessing who put in the $100) on May 5, 1956 when the first predecessor limited partnership.(Buffett Associates, Ltd. ) was organized, to $26,074,000 on 1/1/65 creates the need for an occasional reorganization in internal routine. Therefore, roughly contemporaneously with the bold move from 682 to 909 ¼ square feet, a highly capable is going to join our organization with responsibility for the administrative (and certain other) functions. This move will particularly serve to free up more of Bill Scott's time for security analysis which is his forte. I’ll have more to report on this in the midyear letter. Bill (who continues to do a terrific job) and his wife have an investment in the Partnership of $298,749, a very large majority of their net worth. Our new associate (his name is being withheld until his present employer has replaced him), along with his wife and children, has made an important investment in the Partnership. Susie and I presently have an interest of $3,406,700 in BPL which represents virtually our entire net worth, with the exception of our continued holding of Mid-Continent Tab Card Co., a local company into which I bought in 1960 when it had less than 10 stockholders. Additionally, my relatives, consisting of three children, mother , two sisters, two brothers-in-law, father-in-Law, four aunts, four cousins and six nieces and nephews, have interests in BPL, directly or indirectly, totaling $1,942,592. So we all continue to eat home cooking.
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我们依旧是季节性生意做到极致的那一类——一年只开门一天。这给文书流转带来实实在在的麻烦,但贝思和唐娜在应对这一难题以及其他问题上依旧干得极为出色。毕马威·米切尔会计师事务所(Peat, Marwick, Mitchell & Co.)在其一贯扮演的关键角色——厘清什么归谁——上表现卓著。我们总把不可能完成的时限甩给他们,而他们每次都完成得无可挑剔。诸位可以从他们今年出具的证明书中看到,他们已实施一项新做法:除常规年终审计外,如今每年还会毫无预告地对我们突击检查两次。最后——也是最由衷地——容我感谢各位合伙人,正是你们极为出色的配合,把各项材料及时、妥当地交到我们手上,才让我们得以把时间最大化地花在应待之处——收银台旁。我无比幸运,能把绝大部分时间用来思考我们的钱应当投向何处,而不必陷进那些看似压垮了众多企业实体的细枝末节里。我们能实现这样的高效,得益于我们的组织架构,更关键的是,我们这群合伙人让它落到了实处。对此,我深怀感激,而我们也因此都更加富有。我们过去的规矩是,无最低资本限制即可接纳现有合伙人的近亲入伙。但今年,子女、孙辈等亲属蜂拥而至,让这条规定面临质疑;因此,我决定对现有合伙人的直系亲属参伙设定 25,000 美元的最低出资门槛。
We continue to represent the ultimate in seasonal businesses --open one day a year. This creates real problems in keeping the paper flowing smoothly, but Beth and Donna continue to do an outstanding job of coping with this and other problems. Peat, Marwick, Mitchell has distinguished itself in its usual vital role of finding out what belongs to whom. We continue to throw impossible deadlines at them --and they continue to perform magnificently. You will note in their certificate this year that they have implemented the new procedure whereby they now pounce on us unannounced twice a year in addition to the regular yearend effort. Finally -and most sincerely -let me thank you partners who cooperate magnificently in getting things to us promptly and properly and thereby maximize the time we can spend working where we should be -by the cash register. I am extremely fortunate in being able to spend the great majority of my time thinking about where our money should be invested, rather than getting bogged down in the minutiae that seems to overwhelm so many business entities. We have an organizational structure which makes this efficiency a possibility, and more importantly, we have a group of partners that make it a reality. For this, I am most appreciative and we are all wealthier. Our past policy has been to admit close relatives of present partners without a minimum capital limitation. This year a flood of children, grandchildren, etc., appeared which called this policy into question; therefore, I have decided to institute a $25,000 minimum on interests of immediate relatives of present partners.
未来两周内,你将收到:
Within the coming two weeks you will receive:
(1)一封税务信函,向你提供申报 1964 年联邦所得税所需的全部 BPL 信息。就税务而言,只以此信为准。(2)毕马威·米切尔会计师事务所出具的 1964 年审计报告,列明 BPL 的经营和财务状况,以及你本人的资本账户。(3)一封由我签署的信函,列明截至 1965 年 1 月 11 日你持有的 BPL 权益状况,该数字与审计报告中的数据完全一致。(4)合伙协议附表“A”,列明全体合伙人名单。若有任何疑问,尽管找比尔或我。即便我们有出色的员工,但随着规模增长,延误信件、看漏指示、遗漏姓名、数字错位等情况的发生概率也在上升,因此,只要你有一丝怀疑我们可能出了错,请务必开口。我的下一封信大约会在 7 月 15 日发出,总结今年上半年的情况。谨致问候,沃伦·E·巴菲特
(1) A tax letter giving you all BPL information needed for your 1964 federal income tax return. This letter is the only item that counts for tax purposes. (2) An audit from Peat, Marwick, Mitchell & Co. for 1964, setting forth the operations and financial position of BPL as well as your own capital account. (3) A letter signed by me setting forth the status of your BPL interest on 111165. This is identical with the figure developed in the audit. (4) Schedule “A” to the partnership agreement listing all partners. Let Bill or me know if anything needs clarifying. Even with our splendid staff our growth means there is more chance of missing letters, overlooked instructions, a name skipped over, a figure transposition, etc., so speak up if you have any question at all that we might have erred. My next letter will be about July 15th" summarizing the first half of this year. Cordially, Warren E. Buffett
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