致合伙人信(1968-01-24)

合伙人信 · 原文约 1715 词
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巴菲特合伙有限公司

BUFFETT PARTNERSHIP. LTD.

基威特广场 610 号

610 KIEWIT PLAZA

内布拉斯加州奥马哈 68131

OMAHA, NEBRASKA 68131

电话 042-4110

TELEPHONE 042-4110

1968 年 1 月 24 日

1967 年业绩

按大多数标准衡量,1967 年我们表现不错。整体业绩为 +35.9%,同期道指为 +19.0%,由此超越了此前“领先道指十个百分点”的目标。整体收益为 19,384,250 美元——即便通胀正在加速,这笔钱也够买很多百事可乐了。另外,由于卖出了几笔长期持有的大额流通证券仓位,我们实现了 27,376,667 美元的应税所得——这笔钱与 1967 年业绩毫无关系,但应能让各位在 4 月 15 日真切感受到自己为“伟大社会”做出了热火朝天的贡献。上面说的这点小得意,只要稍加细看 1967 年股市的真实情况,就会冷下来。去年,证券市场参与者中跑赢道指的百分比,恐怕比史上几乎任何一年都高。1967 年,对很多人来说天上下的是金子,跑出去吹大号反倒比正经营生还来钱。我手上还没有最终统计,但我猜,遵循普通股投资策略的投资公司里,至少有 95% 跑赢了道指——很多还领先得相当多。那一年,赚钱多少和年龄成反比——而从投资理念上讲,我已经躺在老年病房了。

下表汇总了道指、合伙基金在向普通合伙人分配(超出 6% 部分的四分之一)之前的业绩、以及有限合伙人的结果:

年份 道指 合伙基金(整体) 有限合伙人

1957 -8.4% +10.4% +9.3%

1958 +38.5% +40.9% +32.2%

1959 +20.0% +25.9% +20.9%

1960 -6.2% +22.8% +18.6%

1961 +22.4% +45.9% +35.9%

1962 -7.6% +13.9% +11.9%

1963 +20.6% +38.7% +30.5%

1964 +18.7% +27.8% +22.3%

1965 +14.2% +47.2% +36.9%

1966 -15.6% +20.4% +16.8%

1967 +19.0% +35.9% +28.4%

January 24, 1968 Our Performance in 1967 By most standards, we had a good year in 1967. Our overall performance was plus 35.9% compared to plus 19.0% for the Dow, thus surpassing our previous objective of performance ten points superior to the Dow. Our overall gain was $19,384,250 which, even under accelerating inflation, will buy a lot of Pepsi. And, due to the sale of some longstanding large positions in marketable securities, we had realized taxable income of $27,376,667 which has nothing to do with 1967 performance but should give all of you a feeling of vigorous participation in The Great Society on April 15th. The minor thrills described above are tempered by any close observation of what really took place in the stock market during 1967. Probably a greater percentage of participants in the securities markets did substantially better than the Dow last year than in virtually any year in history. In 1967, for many, it rained gold and it paid to be out playing the bass tuba. I don't have a final tabulation at this time but my guess is that at least 95% of investment companies following a common stock program achieved better results than the Dow - in many cases by very substantial amounts. It was a year when profits achieved were in inverse proportion to age - and I am in the geriatric ward, philosophically. The following summarizes the year-by-year performance of the Dow, the Partnership before allocation (one quarter of the excess over 6%) to the general partner, and the results for limited partners: Year 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

道琼斯指数的整体回报 (1) -8.4% 38.5% 20.0% -6.2% 22.4% -7.6% 20.6% 18.7% 14.2% -15.6% 19.0%

Overall Results From Dow (1) -8.4% 38.5% 20.0% -6.2% 22.4% -7.6% 20.6% 18.7% 14.2% -15.6% 19.0%

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

合伙企业业绩 (2) 10.4% 40.9% 25.9% 22.8% 45.9% 13.9% 38.7% 27.8% 47.2% 20.4% 35.9%

Partnership Results (2) 10.4% 40.9% 25.9% 22.8% 45.9% 13.9% 38.7% 27.8% 47.2% 20.4% 35.9%

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

有限合伙人业绩 (3) 9.3% 32.2% 20.9% 18.6% 35.9% 11.9% 30.5% 22.3% 36.9% 16.8% 28.4%

Limited Partners’ Results (3) 9.3% 32.2% 20.9% 18.6% 35.9% 11.9% 30.5% 22.3% 36.9% 16.8% 28.4%

(1) 按道琼斯指数当年涨跌,加上当年持有道指成分股所能获得的股息计算。该表涵盖合伙公司所有完整运营年份。(2) 1957—61 年为所有前身有限合伙公司全年扣除全部费用后、向合伙人分配或向普通合伙人分成之前的合并业绩。(3) 1957—61 年在前一栏合伙公司业绩的基础上计算,已按现行合伙协议向普通合伙人分成,但在有限合伙人按月提取之前。

(1) Based on yearly changes in the value of the Dow plus dividends that would have been received through ownership of the Dow during that year. The table includes all complete years of partnership activity. (2) For 1957-61 consists of combined results of all predecessor limited partnerships operating throughout the entire year after all expenses, but before distributions to partners or allocations to the general partner. (3) For 1957-61 computed on the basis of the preceding column of partnership results allowing for allocation to the general partner based upon the present partnership agreement, but before monthly

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(接上文)的金额。

withdrawals by limited partners.

按累计或复利口径计算,结果如下:

On a cumulative or compounded basis, the results are:

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

年份 1957 1957-58 1957-59 1957-60 1957-61 1957-62 1957-63 1957-64 1957-65 1957-66 1957-67 年复合收益率

Year 1957 1957 – 58 1957 – 59 1957 – 60 1957 – 61 1957 – 62 1957 – 63 1957 – 64 1957 – 65 1957 – 66 1957 – 67 Annual Compounded Rate

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

整体业绩表现 道琼斯指数 -8.4% 26.9% 52.3% 42.9% 74.9% 61.6% 95.1% 131.3% 164.1% 122.9% 165.3% 9.3%

Overall Results From Dow -8.4% 26.9% 52.3% 42.9% 74.9% 61.6% 95.1% 131.3% 164.1% 122.9% 165.3% 9.3%

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

合伙企业业绩 10.4% 55.6% 95.9% 140.6% 251.0% 299.8% 454.5% 608.7% 943.2% 1156.0% 1606.9% 29.4%

Partnership Results 10.4% 55.6% 95.9% 140.6% 251.0% 299.8% 454.5% 608.7% 943.2% 1156.0% 1606.9% 29.4%

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

有限合伙人收益 9.3% 44.5% 74.7% 107.2% 181.6% 215.1% 311.2% 402.9% 588.5% 704.2% 932.6% 23.6%

Limited Partners’ Results 9.3% 44.5% 74.7% 107.2% 181.6% 215.1% 311.2% 402.9% 588.5% 704.2% 932.6% 23.6%

下一页照例列出一张表,展示两只最大的共同基金(自 BPL 成立以来,它们的规模一直稳居前两位——不过今年被德莱弗斯基金超过了)以及两家最大的多元化封闭式投资公司的业绩,这类基金通常有 95%—100% 的仓位配置在普通股上。年份 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 累计结果 年复合增长率

Investment Companies On the following page is the usual tabulation showing the results of what were the two largest mutual funds (they have stood at the top in size since BPL was formed - this year, however, Dreyfus Fund overtook them) that follow a policy of being, typically, 95-100% invested in common stocks, and the two largest diversified closedend investment companies. Year 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 Cumulative Results Annual Compounded Rate

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

Mass. Inv. Trust (1) -11.4% 42.7% 9.0% -1.0% 25.6% -9.8% 20.0% 15.9% 10.2% -7.7% 20.0%

Mass. Inv. Trust (1) -11.4% 42.7% 9.0% -1.0% 25.6% -9.8% 20.0% 15.9% 10.2% -7.7% 20.0%

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

投资者股票 (1) -12.4% 47.5% 10.3% -0.6% 24.9% -13.4% 16.5% 14.3% 9.8% -10.0% 22.8%

Investors Stock (1) -12.4% 47.5% 10.3% -0.6% 24.9% -13.4% 16.5% 14.3% 9.8% -10.0% 22.8%

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

雷曼 (2) -11.4% 40.8% 8.1% 2.5% 23.6% -14.4% 23.7% 13.6% 19.0% -2.6% 28.0%

Lehman (2) -11.4% 40.8% 8.1% 2.5% 23.6% -14.4% 23.7% 13.6% 19.0% -2.6% 28.0%

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

Tri-Cont (2) -2.4% 33.2% 8.4% 2.8% 22.5% -10.0% 18.3% 12.6% 10.7% -6.9% 25.4%

Tri-Cont (2) -2.4% 33.2% 8.4% 2.8% 22.5% -10.0% 18.3% 12.6% 10.7% -6.9% 25.4%

162.3% 9.2%
162.3% 9.2%

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

道琼斯指数 -8.4% 38.5% 20.0% -6.2% 22.4% -7.6% 20.6% 18.7% 14.2% -15.6% 19.0%

Dow -8.4% 38.5% 20.0% -6.2% 22.4% -7.6% 20.6% 18.7% 14.2% -15.6% 19.0%

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

有限合伙人 9.3% 32.2% 20.9% 18.6% 35.9% 11.9% 30.5% 22.3% 36.9% 16.8% 28.4%

Limited Partners 9.3% 32.2% 20.9% 18.6% 35.9% 11.9% 30.5% 22.3% 36.9% 16.8% 28.4%

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

147.6%
206.2%
181.5%
165.3%
932.6%
8.6%
10.7%
9.9%
9.3%
23.6%
147.6%
206.2%
181.5%
165.3%
932.6%
8.6%
10.7%
9.9%
9.3%
23.6%

(1)根据资产价值变动,加上当年向登记在册持有人分配的所有分红计算得出。(2)1957—1966 年数据取自 1967 年版《穆迪银行与金融手册》,1967 年为估算值。

(1) Computed from changes in asset value plus any distributions to holders of record during year. (2) From 1967 Moody's Bank & Finance Manual for 1957-1966. Estimated for 1967.

去年我曾说:

Last year I said:

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“少数共同基金和一些私募投资机构的业绩远优于道指,个别更是大幅优于巴菲特合伙有限公司。它们的投资手法通常与我们大相径庭,也非我能力所及。”1967 年,这一态势有增无减。许多投资机构的表现远好于 BPL,涨幅超过 100% 的也有。正因为这些耀眼战绩,资金、人才和精力正空前汇聚,倾力追逐股票市场又大又快的利润。在我眼里,这是投机大大加剧,伴有相应风险——但很多鼓吹者坚称并非如此。我的导师本·格雷厄姆常说:“投机既不违法,也不缺德,还不会让人(财务上)发福。”过去一年里,把投机糖果当饭吃,财务上确实可能虚胖起来。我们照旧吃燕麦粥,但如果普遍消化不良来了,指望自己毫无不适,那并不现实。

“A few mutual funds and some private investment operations have compiled records vastly superior to the Dow and, in some cases, substantially superior to Buffett Partnership, Ltd. Their investment techniques are usually very dissimilar to ours and not within my capabilities.” In 1967 this condition intensified. Many investment organizations performed substantially better than BPL, with gains ranging to over 100%. Because of these spectacular results, money, talent and energy are converging in a maximum effort for the achievement of large and quick stock market profits. It looks to me like greatly intensified speculation with concomitant risks -but many of the advocates insist otherwise. My mentor, Ben Graham, used to say. “Speculation is neither illegal, immoral nor fattening (financially).” During the past year, it was possible to become fiscally flabby through a steady diet of speculative bonbons. We continue to eat oatmeal but if indigestion should set in generally, it is unrealistic to expect that we won’t have some discomfort.

1967 年业绩分析

Analysis of 1967 Results

前面给出的总体数字,掩盖了 1967 年各投资组合类别之间巨大的盈利差异。“套利”类是我们有史以来表现最差的一块。在 1965 年的信中,这个类别被定义为:“……有明确时间表的证券。它们源于公司层面的动作——出售、合并、重组、分拆等等。在这一类别里,我们谈的不是这类进展的传闻或内幕消息,而是已公开宣布的动作。我们要等到能在报纸上读到它才动手。风险主要不在于大盘的整体走势(尽管有时也在一定程度上牵连其中),而在于半路杀出某种变故,使预期中的公司动作最终落空。”1967 年,满街都是被打翻的果篮——都是我们的。于是,在 1724.6879 万美元的平均投资额上,我们的总收益只有 15.3273 万美元。若有人的计算尺精度低到不屑于算这么小的数,那我告诉你,这相当于 0.89% 的回报率。虽然我手头没有完整数字,但我很怀疑过去还有哪一年低于过 10%。和其他类别一样,我们在套利类上倾向于每年只集中押注少数几个情形。比起全面撒网,这种做法会让年度结果的波动更大。我相信长期来看,它带来的盈利能力同样可观(甚至更高),只是 1967 年这个结论没法拿来佐证。我们对控股公司的投资,1967 年同样拖累了相对业绩,但这在强势市场里本在意料之中。在 2019.2776 万美元的平均投资额上,我们的总收益为 289.4571 万美元。我对这样的表现是满意的,哪怕 1968 年市场继续走强、这个类别继续跑输。通过旗下两家控股公司(多元零售公司和伯克希尔·哈撒韦),我们在 1967 年收购了两家新企业:联合衬衫店和国民赔偿公司(连同其关联公司国民消防与海事保险公司)。这两笔收购让人再满意不过。一切都如当初所言,甚至更好。牵头出售的两位高管本·罗斯纳和杰克·林沃特一如既往地把活干得漂亮(他们也只会这一种干法),方方面面都远远兑现了当初的承诺,而且做得更多。控股公司这块业务令人如此舒心,正是 10 月 9 日那封信里谈到下调投资目标的一个次要原因。当我打交道的是我喜欢的人,做的是我觉得带劲的生意(哪门生意不带劲呢?),投入资本又能拿到值得一做的整体回报(比如 10%—12%),却还要为多赚那么几个百分点,从一个情形匆匆奔向下一个情形,未免太傻。我也不觉得,拿与优秀之人之间已然愉快的私人关系、以及一份体面的回报率,

The overall figures given earlier conceal vast differences in profitability by portfolio category during 1967. We had our worst performance in history in the “Workout” section. In the 1965 letter, this category was defined as, “...securities with a timetable. They arise from corporate activity -- sell-outs, mergers, reorganizations, spin-offs, etc. In this category, we are not talking about rumors or inside information pertaining to such developments, but to publicly announced activities of this sort. We wait until we can read it in the paper. The risk does not pertain primarily to general market behavior (although that is sometimes tied in. to a degree). but instead to something upsetting the applecart so that the expected corporate development does not materialize.” The streets were filled with upset applecarts - our applecarts - during 1967. Thus, on an average investment of $17,246,879, our overall gain was $153,273. For those of you whose slide rule does not go to such insulting depths, this represents a return of .89 of 1%. While I don't have complete figures. I doubt that we have been below 10% in any past year. As in other categories, we tend to concentrate our investments in the workout category in just a few situations per year. This technique gives more variation in yearly results than would be the case if we used an across-the-board approach. I believe our approach will result in as great (or greater) profitability on a long-term basis, but you can't prove it by 1967. Our investment in controlled companies was a similar drag on relative performance in 1967, but this is to be expected in strong markets. On an average investment of $20,192,776 we had an overall gain of $2,894,571. I am pleased with this sort of performance, even though this category will continue to underperform if the market continues strong during 1968. Through our two controlled companies (Diversified Retailing and Berkshire Hathaway), we acquired two new enterprises in 1967. Associated Cotton Shops and National Indemnity (along with National Fire & Marine, an affiliated company). These acquisitions couldn't be more gratifying. Everything was as advertised or better. The principal selling executives, Ben Rosner and Jack Ringwalt, have continued to do a superb job (the only kind they know), and in every respect have far more than lived up to their end of the bargain. The satisfying nature of our activity in controlled companies is a minor reason for the moderated investment objectives discussed in the October 9th letter. When I am dealing with people I like, in businesses I find stimulating (what business isn't ?), and achieving worthwhile overall returns on capital employed (say, 10 -12%), it seems foolish to rush from situation to situation to earn a few more percentage points. It also does not seem sensible to me to trade known pleasant personal relationships with high grade people, at a decent rate of

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去换取可能的烦恼、恶化乃至更糟,只为博取或许更高的回报,是件明智的事。因此,我们会继续把一部分资本(但不超过 40%,因为合伙协议的性质可能带来流动性需求)投在受控的运营企业上,其预期回报率低于激进股市操作所固有的水平。套利类和控股类合计投入 3743.9655 万美元,总收益却仅有 304.7844 万美元,班上机灵些的同学想必已经推断出:我们在“相对低估类”上打了一场大胜仗。该类别净平均投资额为 1948.7996 万美元,总收益达 1409.6593 万美元,回报率 72%。去年我曾提到一笔投资,它在 1964、1965 和 1966 年大幅跑赢大盘,又因体量巨大(这是我们有史以来押在单一标的上的最大比例——触及了 40% 的上限),对整体业绩、尤其是对这个类别,都产生了实实在在的影响。这份出色表现贯穿 1967 年全年,当年很大一部分总收益,又是由这一只证券贡献的。如今我们对它的持仓已大幅削减,该类别里再没有任何一笔投资,其规模或潜力能与昔日这笔相提并论。“私人所有者类”去年表现不俗(平均投资额 514.171 万美元,收益 129.7215 万美元),眼下我们在这一领域也有几个略有看头的机会。

return, for possible irritation, aggravation or worse at potentially higher returns. Hence, we will continue to keep a portion of our capital (but not over 40% because of the possible liquidity requirements arising from the nature of our partnership agreement) invested in controlled operating businesses at an expected rate of return below that inherent in an aggressive stock market operation. With a combined total of $37,439,655 in workouts and controls producing an overall gain of only $3,047,844, the more alert members of the class will have already concluded we had a whale of a year in the "Generals Relatively Undervalued" category. On a net average investment of $19,487,996, we had an overall gain of $14,096,593, or 72%. Last year I referred to one investment which substantially outperformed the general market in 1964, 1965 and 1966 and because of its size (the largest proportion we have ever had in anything - we hit our 40% limit) had a very material impact on our overall results and, even more so, this category. This excellent performance continued throughout 1967 and a large portion of total gain was again accounted for by this single security. Our holdings of this security have been very substantially reduced and we have nothing in this group remotely approaching the size or potential which formerly existed in this investment. The "Generals - Private Owner" section produced good results last year ($1,297,215 on $5,141,710 average investment), and we have some mildly interesting possibilities in this area at present.

其他事项

Miscellaneous

新年伊始,我们的净资产为 68,108,088 美元。年底有合计约 160 万美元资本的合伙人退出,主要是因为我在 10 月 9 日的信中下调了目标。这对他们是明智之举,因为他们多数人有能力、也有意愿去超越我们的目标,我也得以从追逐当前条件下恐怕难以企及的业绩中解脱出来。有些退出的人(以及许多没退出的人)读完那封信后问我:“你到底是什么意思?”这种问题多少会让作者有点受伤,但我向他们保证,我说的就是字面上的意思。也有人问,这是不是合伙基金逐步清盘的第一步。答案是:“绝对不是。”只要合伙人还愿意把资本和我的放在一起,只要经营上依旧愉快(眼下再好不过),我就打算继续跟这些从我穿网球鞋起就支持我的人做生意。Gladys Kaiser 加入了我们,做着 Donna、Bill 和 John 长期以来为我们做的那种一流工作。截至 1968 年 1 月 1 日,办公室这一班人连同他们的配偶和子女,在 BPL 的投资已超过 1500 万美元——所以上班时间里,我们用不着靠 NoDoz 提神。

We begin the new year with net assets of $68,108,088. We had partners with capital of about $1,600,000 withdraw at yearend, primarily because of the reduced objectives announced in the October 9th letter. This makes good sense for them, since most of them have the ability and motivation to surpass our objectives and I am relieved from pushing for results that I probably can't attain under present conditions. Some of those who withdrew (and many who didn't) asked me, "What do you really mean?" after receiving the October 9th letter. This sort of a question is a little bruising to any author, but I assured them I meant exactly what I had said. I was also asked whether this was an initial stage in the phasing out of the partnership. The answer to this is, “Definitely, no”. As long as partners want to put up their capital alongside of mine and the business is operationally pleasant (and it couldn't be better), I intend to continue to do business with those who have backed me since tennis shoes. Gladys Kaiser has joined us and is doing the same sort of top-notch job that we have long received from Donna, Bill and John. The office group, spouses and children have over $15 million invested in BPL on January 1, 1968, so we have not had a need for NoDoz during business hours.

几天之内,您将收到:

Within a few days, you will receive:

1. 一封税务说明函,提供您填报 1967 年联邦所得税申报表所需的 BPL 全部信息。就纳税而言,唯有这封信作数。2. 由皮特·马威克·米切尔会计师事务所(他们又一次做得非常出色)出具的 1967 年审计报告,载明 BPL 的经营与财务状况,以及您本人的资本账户。3. 一封由我签署的信函,说明您截至 1968 年 1 月 1 日的 BPL 权益状况,其数字与审计报告完全一致。若本信或年内发生的任何事项需要澄清,请告知。我的下一封信约在 7 月 15 日发出,总结今年上半年的情况。顺致问候。

1. A tax letter giving you all BPL information needed for your 1967 federal income tax return. This letter is the only item that counts for tax purposes. 2. An audit from Peat, Marwick, Mitchell & Co. (they have again done an excellent job) for 1967, setting forth the operations and financial position of BPL, as well as your own capital account. 3. A letter signed by me setting forth the status of your BPL interest on January 1, 1968. This is identical with the figures developed in the audit. Let me know if anything in this letter or that occurs during the year needs clarifying. My next letter will be about July15th, summarizing the first half of this year. Cordially,

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沃伦·E·巴菲特

Warren E. Buffett

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