2010 年 9 月 CNBC 访谈
2010 年 9 月 23 日
September 23, 2010
http://www.cnbc.com
http://www.cnbc.com
这是沃伦·巴菲特 2010 年 9 月 22 日（周三）接受 CNBC 贝基·奎克完整采访的文字记录。
This is a transcript of Warren Buffett’s complete interview with CNBC’s Becky Quick on Wednesday, September 22, 2010.
巴菲特当时在纽约参加高盛的一项活动，庆祝该公司“一万家小企业”计划的首批学员毕业。
Buffett was in New York for a Goldman Sachs event celebrating the first graduates from the firm’s “10,000 Small Businesses” initiative.
贝基·奎克沃伦，谢谢你今天接受我们的采访。
BECKY QUICKWarren, thank you for joining us today.
沃伦·巴菲特是我的荣幸。
WARREN BUFFETTMy pleasure.
贝基这个——“一万家小企业”活动——是由高盛主办的。你是联席主席之一。不过——小企业的话题你可以聊上一整天。这个项目的实质到底是什么？
BECKYThis is- the event the 10,000 Small Businesses- it’s- been hosted by Goldman Sachs. You’re one of the co-chairs of that. But- you can talk about small business all day long. What is this really about?
巴菲特嗯，这实质上是给这些——这次是 23 名学员——上一门速成课，内容涵盖很多对他们经营小企业会有帮助的科目。这些人本身已经做得很成功了。我是说，他们——在课程期间——有不少人还招聘了新员工。所以，我们说的可不是热狗摊那种级别。我们说的是名副其实的企业。
BUFFETTWell, this is really about giving these- in this case, 23 students- sort of a crash course in a lot of subjects they- that- are gonna be useful to them in running their small businesses. Now, these people are already successful. I mean, they- they- during the time to the course- a number of them added employees. And so, we’re not talking about hotdog stands here. We’re talking about- about real businesses.
但他们能学到谈判之类的东西。有多少人——有多少人确实有机会——如果你有个能教点东西的父母，那倒是另一回事。但——但这很重要。刚才就有两个人告诉我，一个跟房东把租金谈下来了，另一个跟她加盟的品牌方把权益金谈上去了。我是说，他们学的都是重要的技能。而且他们也有动力去这么做。这些人都是自驱力很强的人。
But they learn things like negotiations. How many- how many people have had a chance really- if you had a parent that could teach you something, that would be one thing. But- but it’s important. And I had two of ‘em- told me earlier, one of ‘em negotiated down her lease, another one’s negotiating up her franchise payment. I mean, it- it- it’s- they’re learning important skills. But they’ve got the motivation to do it, too. These people are self-starters.
贝基你——你为什么参与这个项目？
BECKYWhy- why did you get involved with this program?
巴菲特嗯，我就是觉得这项目特别好。我是说，这个想法——你知道，我一路走来有各种幸运的事。而我身边的人——在我八岁、十岁的时候教了我很多东西——后来都派上了用场。而这些学员里，有些人也有过类似的经历。但是——没有什么比把教育，在这里他们还能得到指导，再加上资金支持更好地结合在一起了。所以，这对成功是一个巨大的推力。
BUFFETTWell, I just think it’s terrific. I mean, the idea- you know, I had all kinds of lucky things going for me. And my people- that taught me a lot of stuff when I was eight or ten years old- been useful subsequently. And- and some of these people have had some of that. But- but there’s nothing like combining education, in this case, they get mentoring, and then they get financing. So, that’s- that’s- a big push towards success.
贝基小企业现在的状况如何？我们从某些渠道听到很多说法，说小企业融资困难，从另一些地方听到的情况却并非如此。
BECKYWhat’s the state of small business right now? We hear an awful lot- from some arenas that small businesses are having trouble getting credit. We hear in other places, that’s not the case.
巴菲特对。
BUFFETTYeah.
贝基你觉得实际情况是怎么回事？
BECKYWhat do you think’s happening?
巴菲特嗯，就我的经验来看，只要企业有合理的净资产、合理的前景，他们是能贷到款的——确实能。现在，你要是想白手起家，没有一分钱净资产就想全额贷款来做，你不应该拿到那笔钱。我是说，很多愚蠢的贷款是在三、四、五年前放出去的。而且不只是在房地产领域，还包括商业企业。
BUFFETTWell, my experience is that they- they- they really- the business has reasonable equity, reasonable prospects. Now, you- if you want to start a business and have no equity, you can try and borrow the whole thing, you- you shouldn’t get the money. I mean, it- it- so, a lot of dumb loans were made three, four, and five years ago. And not only in real estate, but- but in- commercial businesses.
但是，我了解的银行都迫不及待地想把钱贷出去。现在，银行体系手握超过 1 万亿美元，而它们的存款总共也就 7 到 8 万亿美元，其中超过 1 万亿美元存放在美联储，只赚 0.25% 的利息。作为银行，你的资金只赚 0.25% 的利息，即使这些资金没有任何成本，你也会破产。你的运营费用会把这丁点利息吃光。所以，你必须把钱贷出去。而且，市场上是有资金可供借贷的。
But the- the banks I know are dying to get the money out. Right now, there’s over a trillion dollars of the banks, and they only have deposits of $7 or $8 trillion, there’s over a trillion dollars on deposit with the Federal Reserve, earning a quarter of one percent. You go broke with a bank earning a quarter of one percent on your money, even if it doesn’t cost you anything. Your operating expenses will eat up. So, you want to get it out in loans. And- there is- there is- there is money available.
贝基·奎克那么——如果你要纵观全局的话，小企业现在处境如何？显然，每家情况都不一样。但整体来看，你觉得它们表现怎么样？
BECKYSo- how are small businesses faring right now, if you had to- look overall? Obviously, everyone’s in a different position. But overall, how do you think they’re doing?
巴菲特我认为它们的情况和经济差不多。它们经历了一段非常糟糕的时期。我在奥马哈认识一些企业主，奥马哈的情况不像其他地方那么严重，但所有企业都熬过了一段艰难时期。从根本上说，政府在重启经济方面做了正确的事情。这不可能一蹴而就，也不可能一步到位。我觉得大多数小企业已经有所恢复，但还远未达到各自的巅峰水平。
BUFFETTI think they’re doing about like the economy is. That they- they’ve been through- a terrible period. And I know some in Omaha, and Omaha hasn’t been as hard hit as many others, but all businesses went through a terrible period. And- and basically, the government did the right thing in- in terms of- of getting the economy going again. It can’t do it overnight or anything of the sort. I think most small businesses have come back somewhat. But they’ve- they- they’re nowhere near their peaks.
贝基·奎克美国全国经济研究所（NBER）本周宣布，衰退于去年 6 月已正式结束。
BECKYThe NBER said this week that the- recession officially ended back in June of last year.
巴菲特嗯，他们对衰退的定义不一样。（笑）但我是说，我——我的定义是——我认为我们处于衰退之中，直到实际人均 GDP 回升到之前的水平。这不是美国国家经济研究局的衡量方式。但我要告诉你，按任何常识性的定义，普通美国人——或者说他的家庭，从实际收入和 GDP 来看——都比之前要低。我们仍处于衰退当中。而且——而且我们不会很快走出衰退，但最终我们会走出来的。
BUFFETTWell, they define it differently. (Laughs.) But I- I mean, I- I define it- I think we’re in a recession until real per capita GDP gets back up to where it was- before. That is not the way the National Bureau of Economic Research measures it. But I will tell you that to any- on any common sense definition, the average American is below where he was before, or his family, in terms of real income, GDP. We’re still in a recession. And- and we’re not gonna be out of it for awhile, but we will get out of it.
贝基·奎克我们短期内还摆脱不了这个状况，也就是说，从你的业务反馈来看，你能看到什么？一个季度、两个季度，还是一年之后？
BECKYWe’re not gonna be out of it for awhile meaning, you can see what? A quarter, two quarters, a year down the road? Just from your businesses are telling you?
巴菲特我们的生意正在回暖——平均来说，我们旗下有 70 多家公司。但其中大部分——绝大多数——复苏速度很慢。以我们的铁路业务（北伯林顿铁路公司）为例，这家公司的状况和其他铁路公司差不多。如果拿货运量的峰值和谷底相比，我们已经回升了 61%。我觉得，这比美国大部分行业都要好。我不认为大多数行业都能回升 61%——我们的地毯业务、砖块业务、隔热材料业务，都没有回到 61%，但它们确实在回升。
BUFFETTOur businesses are coming back- on average, we’ve got 70-some businesses. But most of them- the great majority are coming back slowly. If you take our railroad business (Burlington Northern Santa Fe), and our railroad business is typical of the other railroads in the company. If you take the peak period for shipments and then you go all the way down to the bottom, we’re 61 percent of the way back up. That’s better, I think, than most businesses are in the country. I don’t think most businesses are 61 percent- our- our carpet business, our brick business, our insulation business, they’re not back 61 percent, but they are moving back.
贝基·奎克从就业角度来说呢。目前国内失业率仍有 9.5%。你手下的那些企业现在在招聘方面是什么情况？
BECKYWhat about- from an employment perspective. We still have nine and a half percent unemployment in the country. What- what are your businesses doing right now in terms of hiring?
巴菲特增加人员——非常少。但铁路会增加相当数量的人，因为如果你回到 61% 的水平，那失业率就降了不少。但拿我们的地毯业务来说，它从每周 1300 万码，我们姑且这么说，降到每周 700 万码。这导致 6500 个岗位消失。现在我们又回升到每周大概 900 万码，但还没到需要重新招人的程度。如果达到 1000 万码，我们就会开始增加人手。但这个滞后效应会持续存在。
BUFFETTAdding- very few people. But the- the- the railroad will have added a fair number of people, because if you’ve come back 61 percent, you’ve come back a fair amount unemployment. But if you take our carpet business, it fell from 13 million yards a week, we’ll say, to seven million yards a week. And with that cost 6,500 jobs. We’re back up to maybe nine million yards a week. But we haven’t had to add yet. If we get to ten million, we’ll start adding people. But it- it’s lagging and it’ll continue to lag.
贝基·奎克美联储的联邦公开市场委员会本周也召开了会议，并发布了一份声明，很多人看后认为，美联储现在准备推出 QE2，也就是第二轮量化宽松——如果经济到那时还没好转的话。这是你对这份声明的理解吗？你觉得这是正确的决定吗？
BECKYThe Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee also met this week and came out with a statement that has many looking at it saying the Fed is now poised to go ahead with QE2, quantitative easing, if- the economy doesn’t improve, at this point. Is that your understanding of that? And you think that’s the right call?
巴菲特我们应对衰退确实有三个工具。你读到的那些是货币政策，由美联储负责，还有财政政策。但我认为，走出衰退的最重要因素，其实是美国资本主义自身的再生能力。在这个国家的历史上，我们经历过很多次衰退，那时候人们甚至没听说过财政政策或货币政策。这个国家总能重新站起来。
BUFFETTWe’ve got three tools really in fighting a recession. And the ones you read about are monetary policy, which is the Fed. And, of course, fiscal policy. I think the most important factor in getting out of the recession actually is just the regenerative capacity of- of American capitalism. And we had many recessions in the history of this country when nobody even heard of fiscal policy or monetary policy. The country always comes back.
外面有 3.09 亿人都在努力改善自己的生活。我们有一套体制，让他们能做到这一点。不过，这套体制不会让事情在一夜之间改变。拥有正确的货币政策很重要。正确的财政政策也很重要。但这些都远不及美国资本主义那种正常的自我再生能力来得重要。
There are 309 million people out there that are trying to improve their lot in life. And we’ve got a system that allows them to do it. It doesn’t allow things to get changed overnight, though. And- and- it’s- it’s important to have the right monetary policy. It’s important for- to have the right fiscal policy. But it’s nowhere near as important as just the normal regenerative capacity of American capitalism.
贝基·奎克听起来你是在——请求大家耐心。要度过这个时期，就需要这个。
BECKYIt sounds like you’re- asking for patience. That that’s what it takes to get through this.
巴菲特嗯，不幸的是，我……我也不知道该怎么办。我是说，如果问题是——你知道，我觉得现在美联储给那些银行支付的利率是 0.25%。我本来想，也许……也许它们该反过来向银行收 0.25% 的存款费，那样钱肯定就逼出去了。（笑声）但……但我的意思是，我们已经用了很多弹药。大家都在谈刺激政策，可实际上，我们现在的联邦财政赤字已经占到 GDP 的 9%。那刺激效果可是相当猛。我是说，从二战以后，我们还没搞过比这更猛的刺激政策。
BUFFETTWell, unfortunately, I just- I don’t know how to do it. I mean, if- if it was a question of, you know, I think the Fed is paying those banks a quarter of a percent now. I thought maybe- maybe they ought to charge them a quarter of a percent to leave their money on deposit and that would really push it out. (Laughter.) But- but I mean, we’ve used up a lot of bullets. And we talk about stimulus. But the truth is, we’re running a- federal deficit that’s nine percent of GDP. That is stimulative as all get out. I mean, that is more stimulative than any policy we’ve followed since World War II.
当然，第二次世界大战期间，我们确实实施了大规模刺激，那场战争也确实把我们从大萧条里拉了出来。但问题在于——刺激的效果并不取决于你管它叫不叫“刺激法案”。我的意思是，如果政府每收入 2 美元就花掉 3 美元，那它就是财政刺激。只不过，它启动经济的力度没有美国公众希望的那么大。我敢肯定，也没达到政府和国会所期望的程度。它可能确实产生了一些效果，但效果很可能比经济学家们当初预想的要小。
And, of course, World War II, we had a huge stimulus and it- it took us out of- a depression. But we are- it doesn’t depend on calling it the ‘Stimulus Bill’ to be stimulating. I mean, if- if- if the government is spending $3 for every $2 it takes in, that is- that is fiscal stimulus. And it isn’t kick-starting things as much as the American public would like. I’m sure as much as the Administration or Congress would like. It’s probably had some effect, probably less than the economists thought it would have going into this.
能带我们走出困境的，是像今天拿到毕业证书的那 23 个人那样的人，以及大企业。我是说，人人都歌颂小企业。老天保佑它们，你懂吧？而且我不该在父亲节讨论母亲。但我想说——记住，中型企业、大型企业、巨型企业，它们都很重要。
What will take us out of this is people like these 23 people that- that we gave a diploma to today. And big business. I mean, everybody glorifies small business. God bless ’em, you know? And- and I’m not supposed to talk about mother on Father’s Day. But- but I would say that- that- remember, the jobs that- medium-sized businesses, large businesses, giant businesses, they’re all important.
贝基·奎克既然所有这些企业都在招人，华盛顿方面到目前为止做得够不够？你希望看到更多行动吗？听起来从刺激政策的角度看，你已经觉得够了。也许从美联储的角度看，你也觉得够了。那在税收结构方面，有没有什么你希望看到变化的？
BECKYFor all of those businesses to be hiring, has Washington done enough at this point? Would you like to see more done? It sounds like from a stimulus perspective, you’ve seen enough. Maybe from the Fed’s perspective, you’ve seen enough. Is there anything you’d like to see different in tax structure?
巴菲特呃，我觉得——原因可能各不相同，每个人都有自己的解释，但过去三四个月里，市场情绪确实变得非常悲观。对国会和华盛顿的看法普遍都挺消极的，而且最近好像还更糟了。我——我希望情况能很快好转，因为这种情绪不利于经济发展。不管人们对华盛顿有什么看法，我们总会走出来的。但——但这种气氛确实不好——让大家对华盛顿发生的事情这么不满，没什么好处。而且——我——我也不太清楚具体是什么因素能让我们摆脱这种局面，但我们会走出来的。
BUFFETTWell, I- I think for one reason or another, and everybody has their own explanation, sentiment has turned very sour in the last three or four or five months. It’s been generally sour on Congress and Washington, but it seems to have taken a turn for the worse. I — I hope we get over it pretty soon, because it’s — it’s not productive. We will come back regardless of how people feel about Washington. But- but it’s not helpful to- to have people- as unhappy as they are about what’s- what’s going on in Washington. And- I’m- I’m not sure exactly what’s gonna get us out of that, but we’ll get out of it.
贝基·奎克劳伦斯·萨默斯这周宣布他将离开白宫。他是奥巴马政府四位核心经济顾问中第三位离任的。你怎么看他离开这件事？你觉得他们应该找什么样的人接替他？会是某位首席执行官吗？还是应该是个经济学家？
BECKYLarry Summers announcing this week that he’ll be leaving the White House. He is the third of the four key economic advisors for Obama’s White House. What do you think about his departure? And where do you think they should be looking for his successor? Would it be someone who’s a CEO? Would it be an economist?
巴菲特如果能找到一位让美国人民和美国企业都感到放心的人，那当然不错。但另一方面，你也不能找个完全脱离轨道的人放进去。我是说，你知道，（前通用电气董事长）杰克·韦尔奇可能是个很棒的人，但我觉得——如果你是政府，你让他坐那个位置，你多少会有点紧张。不过，你需要一个有那种分量的人上任。而且我不认为他们是不是科班出身的经济学家有那么重要。不过，是啊，他们可能不同意我的看法。
BUFFETTIt would be- it would be nice if he- if you could find somebody that the American people, and American business, felt good about. On the other hand, you can’t have somebody that goes off- totally off the reservation, if you put ’em in there. I mean, you know, (former General Electric Chairman) Jack Welsh might be a wonderful guy, but I think- you’d be a little nervous if you were the administration and you put him in that position. But- you need somebody that- of that stature going in. And I don’t think it’s- I don’t think it’s that important whether they’re a trained economist or not. But no, they may disagree with me on that.
贝基·奎克这么说，你希望看到有商业背景、在企业中担任过领导角色的人来当总统？
BECKYSo, you would like to see someone with a business background, who’s been a leader in business?
巴菲特是的。而且这个人不仅要赢得商界的尊重，还要赢得全体美国人民的尊重。我认为——我只是觉得，重要的是——人们要对自己的政府感觉好一些，而政府必须给出一些理由，让人们感觉好一些。
BUFFETTYeah. And who has the respect, not only of business, but the American people generally. I think that- I just think it’s important that- that people feel better about their government and they’ve got to be given some reason to feel better about their government.
贝基·奎克任何——
BECKYAny-
巴菲特你知道吗，人们总说现在是个不确定的时代。其实，任何时候都不确定。我的意思是，早在 2007 年就不确定，只不过我们当时不知道它不确定。2001 年 9 月 10 号也不确定，1987 年 10 月 18 号也不确定，你只是当时不知道罢了。我们一直都生活在一个不确定的世界里。唯一确定的是，随着时间的推移，美国会继续向前发展。
BUFFETTYou know, people talk about this being an uncertain time. You know, all time is uncertain. I mean, it was uncertain back in- in 2007, we just didn’t know it was uncertain. It was- uncertain on September 10th, 2001. It was uncertain on October 18th, 1987, you just didn’t know it. We always live in an uncertain world. What is certain is that the United States will go forward over time.
贝基·奎克税收政策是另一个重大话题——因为减税政策即将到期……
BECKYTax policy has been another huge topic- as the tax cuts- are due to expire….
巴菲特对。
BUFFETTRight.
贝基……如果它们没被续期。总统已经表明了他的立场。他的意思是——应该只针对中产阶级延长，而不是针对最富有的 3%。彼得·奥尔扎格，他即将卸任的预算主管，也说他希望看到这种情况。但如果这在政治上不可行，他宁愿让减税政策对所有人都生效——也不要让谁也享受不到。你怎么看？
BECKY… if they’re not renewed. The President has put forth his- his position. Which is that- they should be extended only for the middle class and not for the upper three percent. Peter Orszag, his outgoing budget director, said that he’d like to see that, too. But if it’s not politically feasible, he’d rather see tax cuts passed for everyone- than for no one. What do you think?
巴菲特嗯，我不觉得最终会完全不给任何人免除。所以，我——我觉得——但彼得确实是从那个角度来论证的。他——他并没有说这是最理想的政策，他只是说这是政治上最可行的政策。但——过去 20 年里，税收制度逐渐向像我这样的人倾斜，——相比之下，对中产阶级——在我看来，这有点过分。所以，我——我认为——我不是说非得是 25 万美元这个门槛。但——但——在高端收入这一端——而且——那些通过资本利得获得巨额收入的人——我只是——我只是觉得——当一个国家需要更多收入时——而我们现在确实需要，我们的税收收入只占 GDP 的 15%——我是说，这——当一个国家需要更多收入时，应该从那些有钱的人那里收。
BUFFETTWell, I don’t think they’ll end up being passed for no one. So, I- I think that- but Peter did put the argument that way. He- he didn’t say this is the most desirable policy, he just said this is the most politically feasible policy. But- the- way the tax system has gotten tilted toward guys like me over the last 20 years is- as opposed to the middle class, you know, in my view, is a little obscene. So, I- I think- I’m not saying $250,000 necessarily. But- but- at the- at the high end- and- and the people who are getting their huge incomes through capital gains and- I just- I just think that- when a country needs more income and we do, we’re only taking in 15 percent of GDP, I mean, that- that- when a country needs more income, they should get it from the people that have it.
贝基你认为在经济不确定的时期加税没问题吗？
BECKYYou think it’s okay to raise taxes at a time when the economy’s uncertain?
巴菲特我想——没错。对某些人来说是这样。是的。我不——我不想在 90%——你知道，98% 的人身上提高税收，但是——但是——不，我认为过去二三十年里税收法规中出现的不公平，和这个国家在 1960 年、1970 年、1980 年等时期非常繁荣时的状况相比，我——我认为它——我就觉得它一直在向富人倾斜。
BUFFETTI think- sure. On some people. Yeah. I- I don’t want to raise ’em on 90- you know, 98 percent of the people, but- but- no, I think the inequities that have gone into the tax code in the last 20 or 30 years compared to the situation that existed when this country was very prosperous in 1960, 1970, 1980 and so on, I- I think it’s- I just think it’s been tilted toward the rich.
贝基你说过你认为在政治上有可能推动某个法案通过，但如果总统——总统必须做出妥协才能让法案通过，你觉得他应该妥协吗？
BECKYYou said that you think it is politically feasible to get something passed, but if the President- President has to compromise to get something through, do you think he should?
巴菲特说到底，他总得做点什么。我是说——那些——那些法律嘛，按性质来说总会到期的。不，我——不过——我——我要是他，会玩得很强硬——（笑）
BUFFETTIn the end, he has to do something. I mean- that- the laws expire by- by their nature. No, I- but- I- I play pretty tough if I was him — (LAUGHS)
贝基沃伦，感谢你抽出时间接受采访。
BECKYWarren, I want to thank you for your time.
巴菲特谢谢。感谢你们邀请我。
BUFFETTThanks. Thanks for inviting me.
贝基谢谢。
BECKYThanks.