2018 年 CNBC 年度长访谈
今天是星期一,1977 年 2 月 26 日。
WHEN: Today, Monday, February 26th
地点CNBC《财经论谈》节目。以下是 CNBC 今天(2 月 26 日星期一)播出的对伯克希尔·哈撒韦董事长兼首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特专访的完整非官方文字记录。该专访在 CNBC《财经论谈》节目(美东时间周一至周五早 6 点至 9 点)中播出。访谈视频可在 CNBC.com 上观看。所有引用必须注明来自 CNBC。
WHERECNBC's "Squawk Box" Following is the full unofficial transcript of a CNBC interview with Berkshire Hathaway Chairman & CEO Warren Buffett on CNBC's "Squawk Box" (M-F, 6AM-9AM ET) today, Monday, February 26th. Video from the interview is available on CNBC.com. All references must be sourced the CNBC.
乔·科南早上好,欢迎收看 CNBC 的《财经早班车》节目,我们在时代广场的纳斯达克市场现场直播。我是乔·科南。贝基,你刚刚在奥马哈现场连线了——哦,和沃伦·巴菲特,好的。行。我明白了。不过我们稍后就会切回她那边——我没——我理解错了。所以——这就是为什么——为什么你会在那边,和他们一起待三个小时——
JOE KERNENGood morning, and welcome to Squawk Box, here on CNBC, live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. I'm Joe Kernen. Becky, you just saw live in Omaha with-- oh, with Warren Buffett, okay. All right. I got it. We'll get back to her-- in just a minute, though. I didn't-- I misunderstood. So-- that's why-- that's why you're out there, three hours with the--
贝基·奎克所以我来了。
BECKY QUICKThat's why I'm here.
乔·科南好极了。好极了。有多少?不过我得看看这些期货。你觉得观众们有多少问题,贝基?我是说,每个人——
JOE KERNENExcellent. Excellent. How many? I gotta look these futures though. How many questions do you have from our viewers, do you think, Becky? Do--I mean, everybody—
贝基·奎克很多。我——
BECKY QUICKA lot. And I—
乔·科南——每个人都该进来。
JOE KERNEN--everybody should get in.
贝基·奎克——我得说,今年的问题确实很好。人们看得很细。不再只是那种“你最喜欢哪只股票?告诉我该买哪只”的问题——那种问题能有 58,000 个变体。今年还有很多其他方面的事。不过,没错,问题质量不错,所以涵盖面很广——
BECKY QUICK--and I have to say, the questions are really good this year. People have gone through. It's not just like, "What's your favorite stock? Tell me which stock to buy." Like, 58,000 variations of that same question. Lot of other things that are happening here too. But yeah, questions are good, so a lot going on—
乔·科南很好。行吧。那——现在——市场太疯狂了,贝基。上周五——什么来着——等尘埃落定的时候是 350 点吧,今早又大幅走高,差不多 200 点。还有——好——我们快速扫一眼。这是市场行情。美国股票期货——目前,大家能看到,道指期货显示上涨 193 点。纳斯达克再涨 25 点。纳斯达克上周之前还稍微有点背离,直到周五——纳斯达克周五涨了 127 点——差不多 2%。那是我们看到的大行情。而且——买盘还在继续——全面铺开——在美国,其实昨晚亚洲和欧洲也在买。市场动作很猛,十年期国债也有些有趣的波动。不过——你们看,日经指数涨了超过——一个百分点,涨了 22,000 点。这样算下来是 260 点。恒生指数——也——大幅上涨。看看欧洲,全盘飘绿——我今早看的时候,欧洲至少——看起来是这样。涨幅没有我们这边和亚洲那么大。但往后走,我们再看。现在才 6 点 01 分。然后——国债收益率在十年期上有所回落。这——你知道,是——我想是一把双刃剑。当我们接近 3% 的时候,有时候股市会受点压力。我猜如果我们没有马上走到那里,而且如果我们在 290 以下交易,我不知道它是不是跌到现在的点位以下了,比方说它往下走——可能就会——你知道,可能光是因为没到 3%,就会给股市添把火。我们等着看。总之,我们现在知道了——贝基,那一路——有不少保证金——抛售,我猜,在发生,这就解释了为什么它动得那么快、幅度那么大。但我们等会儿再回来找你,你可以回答沃伦的问题——
JOE KERNENExcellent. All right. Let's-- the-- the markets are crazy, Becky. Three-- what-- was that on-- 350 on Friday when it was all said and done, and-- strongly higher again this morning. Almost 200. And--also-- well, we'll take a quick look. Here's a check on the markets. U.S. equity futures-- at this hour are, as you can see, 193 points indicated on the Dow. The NASDAQ up another 25. The NASDAQ had been diverging a little bit last week, until Friday. 127 points-- for the NASDAQ on Friday-- which was almost 2%. That's a big move that we saw. And-- continuing buying going on in-- across the board-- in this country, and actually in Asia and Europe overnight. Some strong market action, and some interesting moves in the ten-year note as well. But there's-- you can see the NIKKEI was up more than-- a percentage point, which added 22,000. That gives us 260 points. Hang Seng-- up-- sharply as well. Check out Europe, green across the board in-- in Europe when I watched, or at least looked-- this morning. Not quite the gains that we're seeing here, or in Asia. But we'll see what happens as we move forward. It's only 6:01. And then-- treasury yields moderating on the ten-year. Which, that is-- you know, it-- I guess it's a double-edged sword. As we get closer to 3%, sometimes you see a little pressure on the stock market. I guess if we don't immediately go there, and if we trade below 290, and I don't know if it went below where it is now, let's say it goes down-- maybe that becomes-- you know, maybe that lights a fire under the stock market when-- just by not going to 3%. We'll see. Anyway, we now know-- Becky, that there was-- quite a bit of margin-- selling, I guess, going on-- in that route, which explains how quickly it moved, andhow far it moved. But we'll get back after you, and you can answer to Warren--
贝基·奎克您说的是今天《华尔街日报》的头条,或者说是主要新闻之一,关于保证金卖出引发的那件事吧——
BECKY QUICKYou're talking about the lead story, or one of the lead stories in the Wall Street Journal today about the margin selling that—
乔·科南是啊。我不知道巴菲特是不是买了。
JOE KERNENYeah. I don't know if Buffett buys
贝基·奎克……6428 亿美元。
BECKY QUICK--$642.8 billion.
乔·科南——我猜他大概不会——买——你知道的。也许他会呢。当——哈——
JOE KERNEN--I assume he probably doesn't-- buy-- you know. Maybe he does. When-- huh—
贝基·奎克从来没有。实际上,他在今年的致股东信中花了很大篇幅写这个——他用了很大篇幅写用保证金交易和加杠杆的风险,对吧,沃伦?
BECKY QUICKNever. And in fact, he wrote a big chunk about that in the annual letter. The-- he wrote a big part about that in his annual letter to shareholders this year is the dangers of margin investing and-- and using leverage, right, Warren?
沃伦·巴菲特对。嗯哼。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Uh-huh.
乔·科南没错。是的。
JOE KERNENYep. Yeah.
贝基·奎克好,我们回头聊这个。
BECKY QUICKRight. So we will talk about that.
乔·科南那——算你承认了。好,不错。嘿,沃伦,老伙计,克雷顿那场,你——
JOE KERNENThat-- would be a yes. Okay, good.hey, Warren, my man, Creighton, did you—
沃伦·巴菲特嗨。
WARREN BUFFETTHi.
乔·科南——你看了没有——
JOE KERNEN--did you watch—
沃伦·巴菲特乔,最近怎么样?
WARREN BUFFETTJoe, how are you?
乔·科南我好得很。你看了没——那场比赛实在太精彩了。前几天那场球。我本来不算维拉诺瓦的球迷。不是瞎说。就因为泽维尔——我倒也不是。我真不是泽维尔的球迷。他们那几个主力简直让我抓狂。那个迪文琴佐,他啊——他老是给泽维尔补刀。但你说他们打得多棒——我觉得他们本该在常规时间就赢下来,结果你也看到了,比赛被拖进加时——不知道你看没看这场球,哇,他们后来势头真是猛。加时赛一开场他们就跳到球,对吧,然后就拿下了。接着他们赢了维拉诺瓦。太精彩了。
JOE KERNENI'm great. Did you see-- that was so awesome. That game the other day. It was-- I'm not a big Villanova fan. Not for nothing. But just because Xavier-- I'm not. I really am not. And-their good players absolutely drive me nuts. That DiVincenzo, he is-- he sticks a dagger into Xavier so often. But how great that they-- I thought they shoulda won in regulation, and then you saw how it went to-- I don't know if you saw the game, but wow, they really came on strong. They got the initial tip in overtime, right, and then they won. And then they beat Villanova. It was awesome.
沃伦·巴菲特乔,再过几周,我们就要为伯克希尔员工举办内部 NCAA 锦标赛竞猜了,奖项跟去年一样。不过,要是克雷顿大学或内布拉斯加大学最后拿了冠军,我们就把奖金翻倍。所以就不再是 100 万美元——
WARREN BUFFETTJoe, we're having our basketball bracket contest for Berkshire employees here in a couple of weeks, and with the same prizes as last year. But if either Creighton or Nebraska ends up winning the tournament, we're going to double the prize. So instead of being $1 million—
贝基·奎克真的假的?
BECKY QUICKReally?
沃伦·巴菲特——将变成 200 万美元——
WARREN BUFFETT--it's gonna be $2 million—
乔·科南这可是条大新闻。这就是——我正想打听的消息——
JOE KERNENThis is breaking news. This is-- what I was looking for—
贝基·奎克哇。
BECKY QUICKWow.
乔·科南但你知道吗——
JOE KERNENBut you know—
沃伦·巴菲特这可是条大新闻。
WARREN BUFFETTThis is breaking news.
乔·科南是啊,克雷顿差点就——克雷顿就只差那么一点点——输给了泽维尔大学,然后他们转头就击败了维拉诺瓦大学。所以——我是说,我就不信——他们那个教练到底有多高?因为我——他看起来挺高大的,可后来我看到他跟球员们站在一起——
JOE KERNENYeah, Creighton almost-- Creighton just barely-- lost to Xavier, and then they beat Villanova. So any-- I mean, I wouldn't-- how big is that coach? 'Cause I-- he looks big, but then I saw him with his players—
沃伦·巴菲特没错。他块头大,确实是大块头。
WARREN BUFFETTHe is. He's big. He's big.
乔·科南——他长得——得有 3 米 3 那么高——
JOE KERNEN--he's got-- he's, like, 11 feet tall—
沃伦·巴菲特他——
WARREN BUFFETTHe—
乔·科南我觉得。他就像海格,那家伙——
JOE KERNENI think. He's like Hagrid, that dude—
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,他儿子个头也很大。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, he's got a big son, too.
乔·科南他确实也有。他还特别厉害——好了,我们最好开始——你懂的,贝基,我们有三小时,对吧?我们有三小时。所以——我们可以——
JOE KERNENHe does too. He's also awesome— All right, we better get-- we-- you know, Becky, we got three hours, though, right? We got three hours. So-- we can—
贝基·奎克对。我们时间很充裕。接下来三小时就我们三个人。没问题——
BECKY QUICKWe do. We have plenty of time. Just the three of us for the next three hours. We're good—
乔·科南——好的。那是条突发新闻。翻倍——
JOE KERNEN--okay. And that was breaking news. Doubling—
贝基·奎克确实——是的。而且我确信这迟早会来——把奖金,悬赏奖金翻倍。
BECKY QUICKIt-- was. And I'm sure this was going to come at some point. Doubling the prize, the bounty.
沃伦·巴菲特如果克雷顿大学或内布拉斯加大学赢了锦标赛——
WARREN BUFFETTIf Creighton or Nebraska wins the tournament—
贝基·奎克那——顺便问一句,今年乔能参加吗?
BECKY QUICKAnd-- by the way, is Joe allowed to play this year?
沃伦·巴菲特你知道,我会把他算上。我个人替他报名。公司会给走得最远的人颁奖。要是你打进甜蜜 16 强,就每年给你 100 万美元,终身发放。如果克雷顿大学或内布拉斯加大学赢了,那就是每年 200 万美元,终身发放。
WARREN BUFFETTYou know, I will include him. I'll book him personally. The company is going to award the prize for whoever goes the furthest. And if you get through the Sweet 16, you get $1 million a year for life. Which, if Creighton or Nebraska won, would be $2 million a year for life.
贝基·奎克乔,你要是赢了,我得收一笔介绍费。
BECKY QUICKI want a finder's fee, Joe, if you win.
乔·科南我想——那他就会——我们自己小赌一局,沃伦?我们能赌点什么吗——就像,又来了——我像张坏掉的唱片。我们能拿 NetJets 搞点名堂吗?我是说,我们能做——比如终身私人飞机旅行——
JOE KERNENI want-- so he'll do--we can do our own little bet, Warren? Can we do somethin' w-- like, right, here we go again-- I'm like a broken record. Can we do somethin' with NetJets? I mean, can we do -- something like-- private jet travel for life—
贝基·奎克你赢了终身每年 100 万美元,就可以自己买一架 NetJets 了。
BEKY QUICKYou win $1 million for life, you can buy your own NetJet.
乔·科南哦,这倒是真的——
JOE KERNENOh, that's true--
沃伦·巴菲特是你的砖头——赌我的 NetJets?你是这个——意思——
WARREN BUFFETTIs it- your brick against my NetJets? Is that what-- you're suggesting--
乔·科南没错——就是这样。这是我的砖头。我的砖头。好了,到此为止。快,快,快。我——开始吧——
JOE KERNENThat's-- right. It's my brick. My brick. All right, we're done. Go, go, go. I'm-- get start--
沃伦·巴菲特那好,我们谈。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, we'll negotiate.
乔·科南好的。
JOE KERNENAll right.
贝基·奎克好,我们直接进入今天的新闻,和我们的晨间新闻人物聊聊。伯克希尔·哈撒韦的董事长兼首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特今天和我们在一起。而且——沃伦,你在这里,或者应该说我们在这里,我们在奥马哈,是因为你刚刚发布了给股东的年度信,而你已经和我们坐下来聊了——到现在有七八年了,让我们过来,让观众们——读你的信,提些问题,然后有机会和你谈谈这封信。这是你写给股东的第 53 封信——
BECKY QUICKAll right, let's get right to the news with our newsmaker of the morning. Berkshire Hathaway's chairman and CEO Warren Buffett is with us. And-- Warren, you're here, or we're here, I should say, we're here in Omaha because you just put out your annual letter to shareholders, and you've sat down with us for-- seven or eight years at this point, and let us come out and have viewers-- read your letter, have questions about that, and then get the chance to talk to you about it. And this is the 53rd letter to shareholders that you've written—
沃伦·巴菲特我想这是第 53 封了,对。嗯哼。
WARREN BUFFETTI think it's the 53rd, yeah. Uh-huh.
贝基·奎克好了,这是第 53 封致股东信。这封信有点不一样。你实际上打破了过去多年的格式——以往你会逐家列出公司,告诉我们它们表现如何。为什么——你决定——在 53 年之后要改变一下?
BECKY QUICKAll right, so the 53rd annual letter. And this one was a little different. You actually broke with some of the formatting that you've been doing for years now, where you lay out and go through each of the companies and tell us how they're doing. Why--did you decide-- to shake things up after 53 years—
沃伦·巴菲特这个嘛,我 87 岁了,也许算是返老还童了——只不过方式不太一样。我就是觉得那种格式我们差不多用腻了,而且信里写的好多信息跟 10-K 报告重复。所以现在干脆把整份 10-K 附在后面——你说得对,今年的信大概只有以前长度的 60% 到 65%。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, I'm 87. Maybe I'm in my second childhood. In a different way. I just felt we'd sorta worn out that format, and there was quite a bit of information that I would put in the letter that was repeated in the 10-K. So we just append the entire 10-K, and-- you're right, it's-- probably 60% or 65% as long as-- previous letters.
贝基·奎克是啊——这……你看,作为一个在任何层面上都不喜欢改变的人,看到你这么做,我真的很惊讶。我——对,简直是直接把它扔出窗外,然后跟着走。但我们还是聊聊年报开头那几条大新闻吧。第一条是公司 2017 年净资产增加了 653 亿美元。其中 290 亿美元来自税收政策变化,是美国政府调整税收带来的。我们深入聊聊这个吧。解释一下这意味着什么。这个影响有多大?
BECKY QUICKYeah-- which is-- look, as somebody who doesn't like change on any level, I'm amazed to see you doing this. I-- yeah, like, throwing it right out the window and going with it. But let's talk about some of the big news items that come right at the top of the letter. The first is that there's a $65.3 billion increase in net worth for the company in 2017. $29 billion of that comes from the tax changes, from the U.S. government making those tax changes. Why don't we dig into that. Explain what that means. How significant is that?
沃伦·巴菲特是这样的,有两个主要项目,但它们都减少了一项递延所得税负债。我们手上有大约 1000 亿美元的股票未实现收益。现在,当这些股票卖出时,你得为那笔收益缴税。而——以前税率是 35% 的时候,我们会针对那笔税预留 350 亿美元的负债储备。那就降到了大约 210 亿美元。所以约 140 亿美元——是我们卖出那些证券时,要缴的税额的减少量。眼下不是现金,但它减少了一项负债。而当你减少一项负债时,净资产就会上升。另一个重要点跟同一件事有关,也就是递延所得税,当我们买入某种固定资产,比如火车头或其他什么,我们有权——过去几年可以在第一年计提 50% 的折旧,假设它使用寿命是十年。为了简单起见,可能实际更长。那么,按账面基础,你通常会分十年折旧——1000 万美元的资产,每年折旧 100 万美元。但为了税务目的,你有所谓的“奖金折旧”,第一年就提取 50%,也就是 500 万美元。所以长期来看,你最终获得的折旧总额是一样的。但你提前拿到了税收抵扣,那就变成了一笔递延税。而我们在这方面有很多。铁路上有,其他地方也有。公用事业公司省下的那部分会转给客户。所以那大约是 60 亿美元。我们把这笔钱设为一项负债,因为它将来会转给客户。但跟正常部分相关的——你知道,火车头或其他什么——我们获得了一个减项,因为以后我们会在账面计提的折旧——税务上已经提过了——将来会按 21% 而不是 35% 来征税。这就是那两个大项。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, there were two primary items, but they both reduced a deferred tax liability. We had about $100 billion of unrealized gain in equities. Now, when they're sold, you pay tax on that. And--previously when the tax was 35%, we would've had a $35 billion reserve for taxes against that as a liability. That would drop to about $21 billion. So $14 billion, roughly-- was a reduction in the amount of tax that, when we sell those securities, we will pay. Wasn't cash now, but it reduced a liability. And when you reduce a liability, net worth goes up. And the other important point related to the same thing, deferred income taxes, when we buy some kind of fixed asset, locomotive or whatever it may be, we're entitled-- in previous years to 50% depreciation in the first year, and let's say it's gonna last ten years. That may last longer, to make it easy. Well, you would normally, on a book basis, depreciate it ten-- $1 million a year on a $10 million asset over ten years. For tax purposes, you've got to have what they call bonus depreciation and take 50% of it the first year, $5 . So you're gonna get the same amount of depreciation over time. But you got the tax deduction earlier, and that became a deferred tax. And we have a lotta that. We've got it in the railroad, we've got it multiple places. The amount that was saved with the utility companies goes to the customers. So that was about $6 billion. And we gave-- we set that up as a liability, 'cause that will go to the customers. But the amount that related to the normal-- you know, the locomotives or whatever it may be-- we got a reduction because that depreciation we'll take later on, which-- for book purposes, we've already taken for tax purposes, will come and be taxed at 21% instead of 35%. Those are the two big items.
贝基·奎克你——并不是推动这项税改法案的积极支持者,但你相当详尽地谈论过它——它将对美国企业意味着什么。这对美国企业来说是一股巨大的顺风——
BECKY QUICKYou-- were not a proponent of pushing through this tax reform, but you have talked pretty extensively about it--what it's going to mean for American business. It is a huge tailwind for American business—
沃伦·巴菲特这是一股巨大的顺风。对那些有大量折旧并提前享受红利折旧的公司来说,更是如此。所以这是一件大事——对这类公司而言。拥有大量升值和有价证券的公司没那么多,但对有这些的公司来说,这确实是一件大事。
WARREN BUFFETTIt's a huge tailwind. And it's particularly a tailwind if you've got-- particularly for companies that have had lots of depreciation and taken bonus depreciation up front. So it's a big item-- there. Not as many companies have lots of appreciation and marketable securities, but it's a big item for those that do.
贝基·奎克这对美国整体商业意味着什么?以及——在此基础上——对未来一年乃至未来几年的经济又意味着什么?
BECKY QUICKWhat-- will it mean for American business overall, and-- as a-- posit of that, what will it mean for the economy over the next year and over the next several years?
沃伦·巴菲特呃,这——确实意味着企业缴纳的税款会比原来少不少。因为持续税率是 21%,而不是 35% 了。所以先别管那些适用于过去的调整。当我们在 2018 年赚钱——国内业务,受制于这儿那儿的一些小细节,但基本上我们会按 21% 而不是 35% 来缴税。所以那是很大一笔钱。而且——你知道,我们还没真正从这上面拿到现金,但往后我们会省下现金。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, it-- certainly means corporations will pay quite a bit less in tax than they otherwise would. And-- because the ongoing rate is 21% instead of 35%. So forget about these changes that apply to the past. When we make money in 2018-- domestically, and subject to a lotta little things here and there, but basically we'll be paying at 21% instead of 35%. So that's a lotta money. And-- you know,we haven't really gotten cash yet from this, but we will save cash as we go along.
贝基·奎克乔?
BECKY QUICKJoe?
乔·科南沃伦,结合你过去的一些评论来看,我觉得你不认为美国企业税负过重。你反复多次提到过这一点。或者说你曾表示,即使企业少缴税,也未必能让它们变得更好——按原来的税率它们已经经营得很好。你在节目里说过很多很多次。我还知道,你认为像你和比尔·盖茨这样的富人应该多缴税。所以我觉得你有一个明确的——可以说是目标——就是政府需要更多钱来推行自己想要做的事。那在你刚才所说的这个例子里,伯克希尔现在对资本配置有了更多掌控,而不是由政府来掌控这笔资本的流向——这对国家来说到底是净正面还是净负面,你怎么看?
JOE KERNENIn-- just thinking about some of your comments in the past, Warren, I don't think you thought American business was overtaxed. You've made that point many, many times. Or maybe you were saying that if they were taxed less, it wouldn't necessarily make it better for them. They're doin' just fine the way they were with the old tax rate. You said that many, many times-- on the show. And I know you think people like you and Bill Gates and others of the wealthy should pay more. So I think you have a stated-- sort of objective that the government needs more money to do what it wants to do. In this case, what you just said, is that a positive for the country, that Berkshire now is going to have more control about where that capital is allocated, rather than the government having control of where that capital is allocated-- is that a net positive for the country or a net negative for the country, in your view?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,这取决于他们是把这些钱分配给我们,还是分配给那些——收入很低的人,或者——如果他们打算减税,问题在于他们把钱减给谁。你知道的,这里面有各种各样的条款,不过——
WARREN BUFFETTWell, it depends whether they'd instead of allocating it to us, they'd allocate it to the people who-- on very low incomes, or as-- if they were going to give a tax cut, the question is who they gave it to. And you know, and there are all kinds of provisions there, but--
乔·科南呃——不,我的意思是——不过——
JOE KERNENWell-- no, I just mean-- but-
沃伦·巴菲特——但基本上——
WARREN BUFFETT--but basically—
乔·科南——我们谈的不是这个——我们现在谈的是,伯克希尔·哈撒韦现在拿到了那笔钱,而不是政府。你觉得这笔钱留在私营部门是净正面,还是净负面——因为如果你觉得是净负面,你大可以自己开张支票,说:“我不喜欢这项税法。把钱从伯克希尔拿走,给低收入人群吧。”或者随便什么。你可以那么做。或者——你觉得这样更好——
JOE KERNEN--we're not talking about we're talking about Berkshire Hathaway now gets that money instead of the government. Do you think that's a net positive that it's kept in the private sector, or a net negative-- because if you think it's-- a net negative, you're free to write that check and say, "I--don't like this tax law. Take the money from Berkshire and give it to the low-income people," or whatever. You could do that. Or-- do you think it's better that—
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我——我们——乔,我们有 100 万股东。如果我用公司资金开始做自愿性支付,我想我会被大约 99.9 万个股东告上法庭。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, I-- we--Joe, we have 1 million shareholders. I think I'd get shoo-- sued by about 999,000 if I start making voluntary payments from--
乔·科南如果不是这样——如果不是这样,你会这么做吗?你会愿意把钱拿出来——如果股东支持你——我只是觉得这对伯克希尔确实很好,我想知道你能不能在这点上同意我。
JOE KERNENIf that wasn't the case-- if that wasn't the case, would you do it? Would you give it-- if the shareholders would go along with you- I just think it's really good for Berkshire, and I wonder if you can just agree with me on that.
沃伦·巴菲特不,这对伯克希尔确实非常好。这一点毋庸置疑。这才是关键——
WARREN BUFFETTNo, it's really good for Berkshire. There's no question about it. That's the point—
乔·科南对整个社会来说呢?你难道不觉得,用那笔多出来的钱,你能做出伟大的事吗——你难道不希望自己拿着它,而不是那些——你知道,可能资金使用效率没那么高的人拿着吗——
JOE KERNENWhat about for society in general? Don't you think you can do great things with the-- incremental addition that-- that you-- with-- wouldn't you rather have it than have the-- you know, maybe people that don't use it as effectively—
沃伦·巴菲特谁都愿意拿着那笔钱。问题在于——不过,你知道,在于——在于——
WARREN BUFFETTEverybody would rather have it. The question is whether-- but, you know, whether-- whether—
乔·科南好。我——行吧,我——
JOE KERNENOkay. I'm-- all right , I-
沃伦·巴菲特——你把钱给了谁。
WARREN BUFFETT--who you give it to.
乔·科南——你——我一直没法让你——
JOE KERNEN--you're-- I've never been able to get you—
沃伦·巴菲特我——会的——
WARREN BUFFETTI-- would so—
乔·科南在这些事上我总没法让你接招。我——
JOE KERNENI can't get you on these things. I—
沃伦·巴菲特嗯——
WARREN BUFFETTWell--
乔·科南——不过我觉得,如果能读懂你的言外之意,我觉得你喜欢这个。我觉得这是好事。而且我觉得让私营部门在全球范围内更好地竞争,对社会来说并非净负面。不管你——不管你从哪个角度看,这都是一件净正面的事。而且——你知道,如果你不喜欢,我觉得你干脆——因为我可以——你干脆签了那张支票寄出去就行。你说过,那是 290 亿美元吧?
JOE KERNEN--but I think, if I read between the lines, I think it's-- I think you like this. I think it's good. And I think that it's not a net negative for society that-- that the private sector gets to compete globally better. Whatever you-- however you wanna look at it, it's a net positive. And-- you know, if you don't like it, I think you oughta just-- 'cause I can-- just sign that check and send it off. It'd be, what'd you say, $29 billion?
沃伦·巴菲特我不像某些人,我不主张把别人的钱拿去送人。
WARREN BUFFETTUnlike some people, I don't believe in giving away other people's money.
贝基·奎克我想这大概是你们俩能达成一致的地方。
BECKY QUICKI think that's probably an area where you two could agree.
乔·科南我——觉得有时候你建议把别人的钱捐出去,虽然这也会包括你自己。不过,好吧,就这些。我——我只是想——现在我要——
JOE KERNENI-- think there's times where you've recommended giving away other people's money, although it would include you. Anyway, okay, that's all. That-- I just wanted to-- now I'm goin'—
沃伦·巴菲特好的。
WARREN BUFFETTOkay.
乔·科南——我回到括号这个话题。让我看一眼。(笑声)
JOE KERNEN--I'm goin' back to the brackets. Let me just see here. (LAUGHTER)
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,乔,如果你这笔投资赚钱了,那你得为此交一大笔税。我是说——
WARREN BUFFETTWell, if you were in the money, Joe, you're gonna pay a big tax on this. I mean—
乔·科南好的
JOE KERNENOkay
沃伦·巴菲特你们——会希望他们大幅调低个人所得税率的,信不信由你,除非你把你的公司注册成另一种形式——
WARREN BUFFETTYou'll--wish they cut personal rates a lot more, believe me, unless you incorporate your—
乔·科南问贝基。跟贝基聊。跟——
JOE KERNENask Becky. Talk to Becky. Talk—
沃伦·巴菲特——你的括号。
WARREN BUFFETT--your brackets.
乔·科南——这事儿我们都清楚,对吧,贝基?
JOE KERNEN-we both know about this, don't we Becky?
贝基·奎克是的。
BECKY QUICKWe do.
乔·科南我是说,在监管机构和……呃……之间——
JOE KERNENI mean, b-- between the agencies and the-- and—
贝基·奎克州和地方税,州和地方税在上涨——
BECKY QUICKState and local taxes, the state and local taxes goin' up—
乔·科南——还有州税和地方税。对。
JOE KERNEN--and the state and local taxes. Right.
贝基·奎克——这会让很多人遭殃。
BECKY QUICK--it's gonna hit a lotta people.
乔·科南我觉得我的税跟你的差不多,巴菲特——我交的可能比你还多,因为你不拿工资,我拿。我大概交得比你多。(笑声)我知道你是怎么操作的。
JOE KERNENI think my taxes are similar to yours, Buffett— I think I'm paying more than you, 'cause you take no income. I do. I think I'm probably paying more than you. (LAUGH) I know how you work things.
沃伦·巴菲特是,我——觉得你交的税率可能更高,乔。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. I-- think you probably pay a higher rate, Joe.
乔·科南对,没有——
JOE KERNENYeah, there's no—
沃伦·巴菲特我觉得你付的美元金额可能没变多,但税率是高了——
WARREN BUFFETTI don't think you're paying more in dollars, probably, but you're paying a higher rate—
乔·科南但我不介意。我不介意。我完全没问题。我很好。我生活在世界上最伟大的国家——
JOE KERNENBut I don't mind. I don't mind. I'm fine. I'm good. I live in the greatest country in the world—
沃伦·巴菲特我也无所谓。
WARREN BUFFETTI don't mind either.
乔·科南我不是在抱怨。
JOE KERNENI'm not complaining.
沃伦·巴菲特这点我同意你。是的,我不认为我们税负过低——或者说,被过度征税。
WARREN BUFFETTI agree with you on that. No, I do not think we're undertax-- or overtaxed.
乔·科南太好了。
JOE KERNENExcellent.
贝基·奎克沃伦,我们聊聊你在信里提到的另一个重大变化吧。就是那个即将生效的会计准则变动。这会让个人投资者更难看清公司实际经营状况。也就是说,各家公司的真实表现到底怎么样。这个会计准则变动具体是什么?会计嘛,听起来很枯燥,但我觉得这事很重要。
BECKY QUICKWarren, let's talk about another big change that you mentioned in the letter too. And this is about accounting change that's gonna come. And--it's going to make your results a little-- tougher-- for individuals to really realize what's happening on--- a actual basis with the company. So how the companies are performing. What-- is that accounting change? And it's accounting. It sounds boring. But I think it's important.
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,这确实重要。我是说,我们接下来要报告——或者说按新规则本会多报告——我也不知道具体多出多少,可能去年会多出 150 亿美元左右的利润。因为会计界要求,从现在开始,只要我们的股票涨跌,那些未实现损益都必须跑进损益表里。所以我们一边在经营铁路这样的正常生意,你关心的也是它经营层面的表现;但我们手里持有 1700 亿美元的股票,这些股票一个季度可能涨 100 亿美元,也可能跌 100 亿美元。以前我们一直把这些变动反映在资产负债表里,现在它们必须进损益表。所以你看到的最后一行净利润数字,其实跟经营业绩毫无关系。而且——大家拿到报告,一眼看向最下面写着“净利润”的那个数字,那会完全具有误导性。还有——
WARREN BUFFETTWell, it is important. I mean, we will report-- well, we would of reported, I don't know how much more, maybe $15 billion or something like that more income last year than we did under the rules that have just been adopted. Because they are going-- the accounting profession requires that we now run gains or losses, unrealized, just as our stocks go up and down, we run those through the income account. So here we're running a normal business like the railroad, and then you're interested in how that does on an operating basis. But we have $170 billion of stocks, and they might go up $10 billion in a quarter, and down-- or down $10 billion. We formerly always reflect that in the balance sheet. Now it has to go through the income account. So you're going to see a bottom-line net income figure which really has no relevance to operating results. And-- you know, people will look at the report and they look at the bottom and it says, "Net income." It-'ll be a totally deceptive figure. And--
贝基·奎克您说过——
BECKY QUICKYou said—
沃伦·巴菲特——我们也在提醒大家注意这一点。
WARREN BUFFETT--and we're warning people about that.
贝基·奎克对。您说过,您和查理会花大力气确保向人们解释清楚这到底意味着什么。您跟阿吉特和格雷格——阿吉特·贾恩和格雷格·阿贝尔——聊过吗,要确保如果他们接手管事,他们会继续这样做?
BECKY QUICKRight. You've said that you and Charlie are gonna make-- take pains to make sure you explain to people exactly what this means. Have you talked to Ajit and Greg-- Ajit Jain and Greg Abel, about making sure, if they were in charge of things, that they would continue to do the same?
沃伦·巴菲特哦,他们一秒钟就能明白。但问题是,人们习惯看到“净利润”这个项目,觉得它有意义。答案是,在伯克希尔,它毫无意义——
WARREN BUFFETTOh, they would understand that in one second. But people are used to seeing an item that says, "Net income," and have that mean something. The answer is, it doesn't mean anything at Berkshire—
贝基·奎克不过,这是伯克希尔特有的情况吗,因为你们持有 1700 亿美元的股票?
BECKY QUICKIs that-- a Berkshire-specific situation, though, because you have $170 billion in stocks?
沃伦·巴菲特是的,这让我们——这让我们变得跟证券公司一样。高盛过去就得这样报告,但他们是靠股票和债券涨跌吃饭的。可我们持有的可交易股票规模非同寻常。不过其他保险公司也得完全照这样做。所以你会看到,随便哪家——比如丘博保险之类的,每个季度都得把未实现损益当净利润来报告,或者用来冲抵净利润。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, it makes us-- it makes us like securities firms. A Goldman Sachs would have to report that way in the past, but they're in the trading business of stocks and bonds going up. But-- we've got an unusual amount of marketable shares. But other insurance companies are gonna have to do exactly the same thing. So you'll see, you know, you name it-- Chubb or whatever it is, that they're going to report-- unrealized gains or losses as net income, or against net income, each quarter.
贝基·奎克这显然会随着市场上涨或下跌而波动,会对业绩产生巨大影响。你还在信里说了件特别有意思的事:你们手里有 1160 亿美元现金,至少年底时是这个数,你们很想把它用出去。但环顾四周,你很难找到价值。你基本上说的是,价格还算合理,但远谈不上诱人。商业景气度正处于历史最高位。
BECKY QUICKObviously that'll fluctuate with market-- with the markets going up or the markets going down. That'll have a huge impact on things. What you also said in your letter that's so interesting is that you've got $116 billion in cash, at least you did at the end of the year, that you'd love to put to work. But when you look around, you have a hard time finding values. You said basically, prices were decent but far from spectacular. Business is at an all-time high.
沃伦·巴菲特确实如此。
WARREN BUFFETTThat's true.
贝基·奎克这是否意味着——按照你认为的公允价值标准——整个市场被高估了?
BECKY QUICKDoes that mean that-- market overall is overvalued, based on what you-- what you think is fair—
沃伦·巴菲特不一定。我是说,事实上——我——市场——股票市场相对于长期债券市场——人们基本可以自由选择,只要打算持有可交易证券。他们可以持有期限较长的债券,可以持有股票,也可以持有短期现金等价物。而且——如果必须在买入长期债券和股票之间做出选择——我现在会毫不犹豫地选择股票。
WARREN BUFFETTNot necessarily. I mean, it--in fact, I-- the market-- the stock market relative to the long-term bond market-- people have free choices, pretty much, if they're going to be in marketable securities. They can own reasonably long-term bonds, they can own equities, or they can keep it in short-term cash equivalents. And--- if-you had to choose between buying long-term bonds or equities-- I would choose equities in a minute now.
贝基·奎克你现在会毫不犹豫地选择股票?它们——
BECKY QUICKYou would choose equities in a minute? They are—
沃伦·巴菲特这并不意味着我认为股市会涨或别的什么。但是,如果——要我持有一张 30 年期国债,或者持有股票 30 年,我认为未来 30 年股票的表现会远远超过那张 30 年期债券。我不知道它们在任何一天、一周或一个月里会怎么样,但我是这么想的——这个想法已经很久了,而且——我们待会儿可以多聊这个。不过——
WARREN BUFFETTThat doesn't mean I think the stock market is gonna go up or anything else. But if- I were going to own a 30-year government bond or own equity for 30 years, I think equities will considerably outperform that 30-year bond over the 30 years. I don't know what they're gonna do in any day or week or month, but I think that-- I've thought it for a long time, and- we can talk more about that later. But--
贝基·奎克那么总体来看,伯克希尔现在是股票的净买入方还是净卖出方?
BECKY QUICKWell, overall, is Berkshire a net buyer or a net seller of stocks right now?
沃伦·巴菲特今年到目前为止,我们一直是——净买入方,虽然我们卖出了——一大部分菲利普斯的股票,持股比例降到了 10% 以下。所以那——是一笔 30 多亿美元的交易——
WARREN BUFFETTIn-- so far this year we've been-- a net buyer, although we sold-- a chunk of Phillips to get below 10%. So the-- that was a three and a fraction billion dollars—
贝基·奎克我记得是三十三亿——三十三——33 亿美元。
BECKY QUICKI think it was three and-- three-- $3.3 billion.
沃伦·巴菲特对,对。所以我们在买进方面花的钱不止那个数——
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Yeah. So we've bought more than that on—
贝基·奎克真的吗?所以即便有那笔卖出,
BECKY QUICKReally? So even with that purchase,
沃伦·巴菲特对。
WARREN BUFFETTRight.
贝基·奎克——你们仍然是净买入方。
BECKY QUICK--sale, you've still been a net buyer.
沃伦·巴菲特没错——
WARREN BUFFETTCorrect—
贝基·奎克这是因为市场出现了剧烈的波动飙升和我们看到的大幅下跌吗——
BECKY QUICKIs that because of the huge-- spikes in volatility and the big declines we've seen in the market—
沃伦·巴菲特不是,纯粹是因为我们找到了自己喜欢的股票。我们——如果买入某样东西,我们压根不知道它下周、下个月或下一分钟是涨是跌。但只要我喜欢,我——就会买。我们持有 1700 亿美元的股票。我的意思是,我们喜欢——我们喜欢的股票很多。我们没有找到可以整体收购的企业——因为如果你在公开市场上买,股价会高出不少,你必须付更高的价钱。而且——我们就是没看到那边有什么值得买的。
WARREN BUFFETTNo, it's just because we found stocks that we like. We- if we buy something, we don't have the faintest idea whether it's gonna go up next week or next month or the next minute. But if I like it, I--we buy it. And we've got $170 billion of stocks. I mean, we like-- there's plenty of stocks we like. We have not found businesses that-- because you have to pay more, the stocks are selling more if you buy in the public market by some margin. And-- we just haven't seen anything to buy there.
贝基·奎克好了,我们来——问几个观众提的问题。一个是 T-60,来自克里斯·罗杰斯。他问:“手上有 1160 亿美元,还在不断增加,你们有多大信心未来能物色到足够多的机会,把这笔巨量资本按伯克希尔的模式配置出去?到什么程度你们才会考虑派发股息?”
BECKY QUICKAll right, let's-- ask a couple of questions from viewers. One is T-60. It comes from Chris Rogers. He says, "With $116 billion and growing, how confident are you in the future opportunities to deploy such a large amount of capital that would fit the Berkshire mold? And at what point would you consider a dividend?"
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我们会——如果——我相当有信心我们能找到资金配置的途径。我的意思是,我们现在就在配置资金。不过——根据历史经验,随着时间推移,我们会有机会的。到现在我们已经经历了一轮漫长的牛市。而——最好的配置时机当然是在市场下行的时候。但如果没等到那样的机会,我们更有可能——这完全取决于股价——但我们的倾向可能更偏向回购而非派息。因为派息隐含着你要永远支付下去、不能削减之类的承诺,而回购则假设,只要股价处于能让继续持有的股东从中受益的水平,我们大概就会倾向回购。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, we would-- if-- I'm fairly confident that-- that we'll find ways to deploy money. I mean, we are deploying money right now. But--we'll get a chance as we go along, based on history. It's gone a long period now we've been in a bull market. And-- the best chance to deploy is when things are going down, obviously. But if we don't, we'd probably be more likely-- it would depend on the price of the stock entirely, but we-- the inclination might be more toward repurchase than dividends. Because dividends have the implied promise that you keep paying them forever and not decrease them and so on, whereas repurchase is assuming the price of the stock is such that continuing stockholders' benefit from the repurchase, we would probably lean toward repurchase.
贝基·奎克你——我的意思是,你一直很清楚在什么价位你会回购股票。
BECKY QUICKWould you I mean, you've been very clear about what price you would buy back shares.
沃伦·巴菲特对。
WARREN BUFFETTRight.
贝基·奎克你——会调整那个标准吗?
BECKY QUICKWould-- you change the equation?
沃伦·巴菲特我们可能会——或许得稍微调一调。如果调得太多,那就没意义了。到时候我们就得另做打算——
WARREN BUFFETTWe might-- you might have to change it a little bit. If you had to change it too much, it wouldn't make any sense. So then we'd have to look at something else—
贝基·奎克现在的标准是什么?就是——
BECKY QUICKWhat's the equation right now? It's—
沃伦·巴菲特账面价值的 120%。
WARREN BUFFETT120% of book.
贝基·奎克账面价值。你就是按那个标准在市场上回购股票的。
BECKY QUICKOf book value. That's when you buy back shares on the marketplace
沃伦·巴菲特我们知道,如果按那个价格回购,是在为继续持有的股东创造价值。而随着价格往上走,这个判断的确定性就会越来越弱。显然,我定 120% 这条线时留了一些安全边际。如果我们将来某个时候要花大笔资金回购股票,价格在 125% 或 127% 左右,我们很可能会走回购这条路。
WARREN BUFFETTWe know that we're doing the continuing shareholders a favor if we buy it at that price. And then that gets increasingly more questionable as you move along from there. And-- obviously I leave some margin of safety when I do the 120%. And-- if we were going to spend a lotta money to buy in stock at some time in the future, and it was 125% or 127% or something like that, we'd probably go that direction.
贝基·奎克而不是派息。不过——这里有个问题,来自艾伦·巴奇(Alan Buckey),编号 T-23。很多人问的正是这个:“为什么不搞一次一次性派息?你们会派发一次性特别股息吗?”艾伦本人问的是:“你不喜欢投资那些派息的公司——或者说你喜欢投资那些既派息又回购股票的公司。但伯克希尔这两件事都不做。为什么?”
BECKY QUICKRather than a dividend. Although there-- there-- I'll ask this question from Alan Buckey. It's—number T-23. A lotta people came into this very question, "Why not come up with a one-time dividend? Would you pay a one-time special dividend?" And Alan himself asks, "You don't like to invest in companies that pay-- or you like to invest in companies that pay dividends, and buy back their stock. But Berkshire does not do either. Why is that?"
沃伦·巴菲特是,我们更希望一家股价被低估的公司把全部资金都用来回购股票。但问题是,一旦你设立了股息,就不会为了回购股票而取消股息。所以,公司要是在派股息——比如苹果,或者随便哪家——我是说,它们不会为了回购而削减股息。而且——除非业务发生根本性变化,否则它们大概在任何情况下都不会削减股息。所以——我们会选择对股东最有利的做法。但你知道,我——很多年前就指出过,你可以——每年卖掉一小部分伯克希尔的股票,最后持有的股份反而比——之前还多。所以如果想创造——那些想创造——把伯克希尔每年赚的一小部分变成相当于股息、变成现金的人,完全可以做到。而且他们不会把这种政策强加给其他人。几年前,一个我从没听说过的股东推动了一次投票,有人在我们的选票上提出:“咱们派股息吧,把巴菲特这小子从——从我们手里抠走的钱拿出来,派股息。”我们投了票,股东们——B 股股东,也就是小股东,投票结果是 47 比 1——47 比 1 说:“别给我们派股息。”所以——这个结果——我们也没搞什么竞选拉票之类的事。选票就这么出来了。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, well, we'd rather have a company whose stock was undervalued spend all their money buying a stock. But the trouble is if you establish the dividend, you're not going to eliminate the dividend to repurchase shares. So they're-- a company that's paying a dividend, take Apple or you name it, I mean, they're not gonna cut their dividend-- to repurchase shares. And-- they're probably not gonna cut their dividend under any circumstances unless their business changed in a dramatic way. So-- we would do what made the most sense for shareholders. But, you know, I have--I pointed out years ago, you can-- you can sell a little piece of Berkshire every year and still end up owning more of it than-- you had before. So if you wanna create-- the people who wanna create-- turn a little bit of what Berkshire earns each year into the equivalent of a dividend, into cash, can do it. And they don't force that policy on the other people. And we had a vote prompted by shareholder I never heard of a few years ago Some shareholder put on our ballot, he said, "Let's pay a dividend, and you know, let's get this Buffett out of-- keeping the money from us and pay a dividend." We had the vote, and the shareholders, 47 to one among the B shareholders, the smaller shareholders, 47 to one, they said, "Don't pay us a dividend." So-- that-- that was a pretty and we didn't campaign on it or anything else. The votes just came in.
贝基·奎克因为他们觉得你配置得更好——那——顺便问一下——
BECKY QUICKBecause they figured you'd do a better job of-- what-- by the way—
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我们
WARREN BUFFETTWell, we .
贝基·奎克——那个投票结果包括你自己投的票吗?
BECKY QUICK--did that include you voting your shares?
沃伦·巴菲特我大概也投了票。不过我没算 A 类股。
WARREN BUFFETTI probably voted my shares. But I'm not counting the A shares
贝基·奎克好,仅限 B 股。
BECKY QUICKOkay, just the B shares.
沃伦·巴菲特不过——伯克希尔,这 53 年来,实际上就是一个储蓄账户。我的意思是,我们——查理——把他的钱放了进来,我也把我的钱放了进来。伯克希尔——我的合伙人们把钱放了进来。我们——我所有的合伙人都把钱放了进来。这是一种随时间推移持续储蓄的方式。钱留在里面,我们拿去投资。只要每一美元在我们存下来之后,其价值超过 1.2 美元,那我们每存下一美元,就比他们直接以现金形式取出来更值钱。完全抛开税收因素不谈,即便个人在整个过程中都是免税的,我们的股息政策也不会变。
WARREN BUFFETTBut-- Berkshire, in effect, for 53 years, has been a savings account. I mean, we-- Charlie-- put his money in, I put my money in. Berkshire-- my partners put their money in. We-- all my partners put it in. And it's a way of saving money over time. And the money gets left in, and we invest it. And to the extent that it's worth more than 120 cents on the dollar after we save it, every dollar we save is worth more than if they got it out in cash. Forgetting all about tax factors, we would've had the same dividend policy if we'd been taxed-- if the individuals had been tax-free the whole time.
贝基·奎克好的,沃伦,我们会继续这场对话,不过现在要插播一段短暂广告。稍后回来,我们接着聊聊伯克希尔持有的一些个股——那些沃伦在年度致股东信里没有评论过的个股。不过首先,周末有一条来自中国的重磅消息:共产党正在考虑取消国家主席的任期限制。详细报道马上奉上,《财经论谈》马上回来。
BECKY QUICKAll right, Warren, we're gonna continue this conversation, but we are gonna slide in-- a quick break. When we come back, we'll talk more about some of the individual stocks that Berkshire owns-- that Warren didn't comment about in that annual letter. First, though, some big news out of China over the weekend as the Communist Party looks to abolish term limits for its president. Details are straight ahead, and Squawk Box will be right back.
乔·科南早上好。今天早盘美国股指期货大幅走高。我们看看能不能冲到 200 点。没错,现在涨了 190 点。道指期货目前涨 182 点,上周五收涨 350 点。标普 500 指数期货预示上涨 12 点,纳斯达克指数期货也预示上涨,上周五收涨逾 120 点。本周日程上,今天关注 1 月新屋销售数据。明天我们将看到耐用品订单、标普凯斯-席勒房价指数和消费者信心指数,美联储主席杰伊·鲍威尔将在美国东部时间上午 10 点向众议院一个小组发表他的首场货币政策证词。到了周三,第四季度 GDP 第二次估算数据出炉,同时还有芝加哥 PMI 和待售房屋销售数据。噢,天哪。我刚看到一些——我这会儿正努力一心二用呢。通用电气出了些新闻,我们随后再讲。周四公布个人收支数据、ISM 制造业指数和汽车销售数据。美联储主席鲍威尔将在参议院银行委员会作证。周五接着是消费者信心指数。业绩方面,约有 30 家公司,算是标普 500 里披露较晚的——其实也不算晚。它们财年各不相同,等等。零售类的公司,包括梅西百货、托尔兄弟、劳氏、TJX、Salesforce、科尔百货、盖璞和杰西潘尼。好了,以下是通用电气刚发布的消息。公司新增三位董事,包括前丹纳赫首席执行官拉里·卡尔普、美国航空前首席执行官托马斯·霍顿——这就是我刚才喊“天哪”的原因——以及前美国财务会计准则委员会主席莱斯利·塞德曼。也可能读塞德曼。不管怎么念,贝基,把画面切回给贝基,也许我们有谁能评论一下这件事。贝基,我知道你今天肯定给沃伦·巴菲特攒了一大堆关于通用电气的问题。
JOE KERNENGood morning. U.S. equity futures sharply higher this morning. We'll see whether we made it to up 200. Yeah, we're up 190. 182 right now on the Dow, after a 350-point gain on Friday. The S&P indicated up 12, and the NASDAQ also indicated higher after a 120-plus point gain also that we saw on Friday. On this week's agenda, today look for January new home sales. Tomorrow we get durable goods. The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index and Consumer Confidence, and Fed chair Jay Powell will deliver his first monetary policy testimony before a House panel at 10:00 a.m. Eastern. Then on Wednesday, the second estimate on the fourth quarter GDP is out, along with Chicago PMI as well as pending home sales. Oh boy. I just saw some – I'm trying to do two things at once here. Some GE news out, we'll get to in a second. Thursday we get personal income and spending. The ISM, Manufacturing Index and Auto Sales. Fed chair Powell will testify before the Senate Banking Committee. And that's followed by consumer sentiment on Friday. As for earnings, about 30 companies, stragglers in the S&P – not really. They have different fiscal years, et cetera. Retailers and the like, including Macy's, Toll Brothers, Lowe's, TJX, SalesForce, Kohl's, Gap and J.C. Penney. All right, here's some news just out from GE. The company's adding three new directors, including former Danaher CEO Lawrence Culp, American Airlines former CEO Thomas Horton, this is the one where I said, "Oh boy," and former Financial Accounting Standards Board chairman Leslie Seidman. Might be Sideman. However it's pronounced, Becky, get back out to Becky, and maybe we have someone who can comment on this. I know you must've had like a book of GE questions for Warren Buffett today, Becky.
贝基·奎克确实收到了很多关于通用电气的问题。
BECKY QUICKThere have been plenty of GE questions that have come in.
乔·科南是向你提的,没错。来自观众,也来自你,来自我们。不过这事你怎么看,贝基?
JOE KERNENFor you, yeah. From viewers, and from you, and from us. But what do you think of that, Beck? So a former person that ran the account--
贝基·奎克嗯——
BECKY QUICKWell—
乔·科南是啊。是不是——他们大概需要有人来——
JOE KERNENYeah. Is that – they need someone maybe to come in—
贝基·奎克到了这步田地,这主意可能不坏。
BECKY QUICKProbably not a bad idea, at this point.
乔·科南正是如此。一位掌管过 FASB 的人进来,说不定能把那些电力系统和养老金问题梳理清楚,你知道,谁知道那些账目最后会怎么——
JOE KERNENExactly. The FASB, a person that ran the FASB to come in and maybe they can sift through, you know, the power systems and the pension issues that are, you know, who knows how those are finally—
贝基·奎克以及这些事情中有多少是——
BECKY QUICKAnd how some of these things were being—
乔·科南是啊。你知道,我的问题是——
JOE KERNENYeah. You know, my question –
贝基·奎克被记账和入账处理——
BECKY QUICKBeing booked and accounted –
贝基·奎克沃伦到了。
BECKY QUICKWarren's here.
乔·科南是啊,沃伦很欣赏那位 CEO。给了那位前任 CEO 极大的——还记得吗,在通用电气急需巴菲特或者说伯克希尔的时候,那笔巨额投资,你懂的,帮了通用电气很大的忙,沃伦。可见——贝基,这些问题你都可以问。但我在想,事后来看,沃伦,你是否觉得自己在某种程度上被杰夫·伊梅尔特给骗了?
JOE KERNENYeah, Warren loved the CEO. Gave a huge – the former CEO. And remember that big sort of at a time when GE really needed Buffett or Berkshire, in terms of saying, you know that big investment, that helped GE a lot, Warren. Looking – Becky, you can ask all these questions. But I wonder if looking back on it, Warren, you feel like you were duped, to some extent, by Jeff Immelt?
沃伦·巴菲特不,我不这么觉得。我的工作是靠自己把事情想清楚。我们正在谈的那笔投资,是在 2008 年 9 月最后几天或 10 月头几天做的。当时通用电气靠着巨额商业票据融资,而商业票据市场突然冻结了。他们确实遇到了麻烦,而且我毫不怀疑,只要政府行动起来,让经济引擎重回正轨——我当时确信这一点——这个问题就只是暂时的。所以我们确实买了 30 亿美元——
WARREN BUFFETTNo, I don't feel that way. My job is to make up my own mind on things. And we're talking, that investment was made at the very end of September, or the first days of October of 2008. And GE had been funded with extraordinary amounts of commercial paper, and the commercial paper market ended. And they really had a problem, and there was no question in my mind that it would be temporary if the government got its act together, and the economic engine got back on the tracks, which I was sure it would. And so we did buy a $3 billion worth—
乔·科南不,我知道。
JOE KERNENNo, I know.
沃伦·巴菲特一笔附带认股权证的优先股,还有——
WARREN BUFFETTPiece of preferred with some warrants. And –
贝基·奎克但它附带了一个 10%——
BECKY QUICKBut it came with a 10% –
沃伦·巴菲特这只债券的票息是 10%——
WARREN BUFFETTIt came with a 10% coupon –
贝基·奎克上面有息票,嗯。
BECKY QUICKCoupon on it, yeah.
沃伦·巴菲特我们在这笔投资上赚了些钱,不如在高盛那笔投资赚得多。
WARREN BUFFETTWe made some money on it. We didn't make as much money on that as we made on our Goldman investment.
乔·科南不过沃伦,回过头看,我的意思是,曾经有那么一段时间,我觉得你对伊梅尔特是充分信任的。现在再回头看,你会不会觉得那份信任用错了地方?你对他在通用电气任期内——整个任期内——领导公司的整体看法,有没有重新评估过?你有没有回过头去重新审视过,然后心想“哇,事情跟表面看起来的不一样啊”,还是没有?
JOE KERNENBut Warren, looking back, I mean, there was a time where I think Immelt had your full confidence. Looking back on it, do you think that that was misplaced? Have you revised your overall viewpoint of how he led GE over the last – over his tenure? Have you looked at that and revisited that and think, "Wow, this wasn't what it appeared to be," or no?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我一直在关注 GE。我不想多评论,你知道,杰克·韦尔奇是我非常非常好的朋友,杰夫也是我的朋友。显然他们犯过错误,他们在长期护理险上犯了错。我们也在长期护理险上犯过错。虽然不在同一程度上,但那个错误最终变得极为严重。等他们的 10-K 年报出来我会去读。我会非常非常仔细地读。大概要花上一整天,但我会去读。而且,保险让他们赔了很多钱,也让其他人赔了很多钱。在保险行业,你可能犯下大错。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, I keep looking at GE. I won't comment on, you know, Jack Welch is a very, very good friend of mine and Jeff's a friend of mine. And clearly there were mistakes made, and they made mistakes in long-term care. We made mistakes in long-term care. They weren't on the same – to the same degree, but that turned out to be a huge one. And I will read their 10-K when it comes out. I'll read it very, very carefully. It'll probably take me all day to do it, but I'll do it. And no. Insurance cost them a lot of money, and it's cost other people a lot of money. You can make big mistakes in insurance.
乔·科南确实如此——
JOE KERNENAnd it did –
沃伦·巴菲特就像我说的,我们做了一件——
WARREN BUFFETTLike I say, we made a –
JOE KERNEN嗯,对不起。
JOE KERNENYeah, sorry.
沃伦·巴菲特请讲。
WARREN BUFFETTGo ahead.
乔·科南我这里又看到一些新内容。我就想知道——贝基,你那边看到了吗——我们正努力把通用电气说的那些材料都过一遍。我现在还不确定该不该现在拿这个来讲。
JOE KERNENI'm just seeing some more stuff here. I'm just wondering what – Becky, are you seeing – we're trying to get through all the stuff that GE said. And I don't know whether to go with this yet.
贝基·奎克不,我没有。
BECKY QUICKNo, I don't.
乔·科南来自马克·格兰特。你看到了吗?我不知道这意味着什么,也许会有——
JOE KERNENFrom Mark Grant. Did you see this? I don't know what this means, that maybe there's going to be—
贝基·奎克我还没收到。
BECKY QUICKI have not gotten that yet.
乔·科南回顾一下过去——
JOE KERNENA look back at the past—
贝基·奎克哦,在这儿呢。
BECKY QUICKOh, here it is.
乔·科南我觉得你不用看。不过,将来的某一天会——
JOE KERNENI think you do. But there's going to be a —
贝基·奎克好吧,听着。这事我们早就知道了。我们早就知道,通用电气将重述 2016 和 2017 两年的盈利——
BECKY QUICKWell, look. We already knew this. We already knew this, that GE was going to restate earnings for 2016 and 2017—
乔·科南两年都要重述,对。
JOE KERNENFor both years, yeah.
贝基·奎克两年都要。他们——沃伦,这算条新闻了,我想那个消息是昨天出来的——
BECKY QUICKFor both years. That they – Warren, this is news, I think that was out yesterday –
乔·科南但我们还不知道问题的严重程度。对。
JOE KERNENWe don't know the extent of it, though. Yeah.
贝基·奎克我们现在还不知道问题有多严重,但他们将会重述盈利,很大一部分原因在于他们在电力业务上某些事项的入账方式。他们在电力业务上怎么确认收入,以及有些东西怎么传导到报表上的。在目前还不完全清楚所有已披露信息的情况下,您有什么看法?
BECKY QUICKWe don't know the extent of it yet, but they are going to be restating earnings, in large part because of how they were booking some of the issues at power. How they were booking revenue at power, and some of the things that were coming through. What would your comment be, not knowing everything that's gone out at this point?
沃伦·巴菲特无论是工程建设合同,还是潜在服务合同,诸如此类的项目,入账时都有很大的灵活处理空间。我会非常关注他们对此会怎么说。要我说,GE 的会计处理这些年根本称不上什么典范。但在保险准备金这类事情上,犯错误是可以犯到天大的。长期护理险很可能是整个保险行业准备金计提错误里最大的单一因素。他们在这个领域做得规模很大,但那个数字还是让我震惊不已。
WARREN BUFFETTThere's a lot of flexibility when you're booking that, either construction in progress or potential service contracts, everything. I'll be very interested in what they have to say on that. You know, I would say the accounting at GE has not been a model at all, in recent years. But you can make mistakes in something like insurance reserving, big time. And long-term care has probably been the biggest single element of mis-reserving in insurance throughout the industry. And they were in it big time, but I was staggered by the amount of it.
贝基·奎克您是说最近这次他们不得不增提准备金所动用的金额——
BECKY QUICKBy the amount of this most recent issue where they had to call up the reserves—
沃伦·巴菲特对,那个金额太庞大了。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. That was huge.
贝基·奎克达到数十亿美元的量级。
BECKY QUICKTo the tune of billions of dollars.
沃伦·巴菲特对。对,问题在于,我的意思是,负责监管他们的是堪萨斯州保险部门。而这种事情不是一夜之间冒出来的。所以,去搞清楚堪萨斯州监管部门与公司之间到底有过哪些通信往来,诸如此类的情况,会很有意思。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Yeah, and the question gets to be, I mean, it was the Kansas department supervising them. And that doesn't happen overnight. So it'll be interesting to see just exactly what the correspondence was between the Kansas department and the company and all of that sort of thing.
乔·科南嗯。你还记得那次——
JOE KERNENYeah. Do you remember when—
沃伦·巴菲特但通用电气是一家相当出色的——
WARREN BUFFETTBut GE is a wonderful—
乔·科南哦,是吗?有多出色?好到你现在愿意买入多大比例的普通股?你心里觉得有多美妙,沃伦?
JOE KERNENOh yeah? How wonderful? To the tune of buying how much percentage of the common stock right now? How wonderful are you feeling about it, Warren?
沃伦·巴菲特不,我是说,我们还一股没买。不过——
WARREN BUFFETTNo, I mean, we haven't bought any stock. But—
乔·科南如果那很好,你会去吗?
JOE KERNENIf it's wonderful, are you going to?
沃伦·巴菲特实际上,我们卖掉了股票。我们原本有一些公司认股权证带来的少量股票,也就是优先股的——
WARREN BUFFETTIn fact, we sold our stock. We had a small amount of stock that came from the warrants of the company, the preferred –
乔·科南对。从……
JOE KERNENRight. From the –
沃伦·巴菲特我们把它卖了。我知道我们是在 29 美元卖的,大概是前一阵子的事了。对我们来说,这笔投资的规模相对较小。但我们确实把它卖掉了。
WARREN BUFFETTAnd we sold it. I know we sold it at $29, whatever that was awhile back. It was a relatively small investment for us. But we did sell it.
乔·科南在打折。今天打折。
JOE KERNENIt's on sale. It's on sale today.
贝基·奎克但我们确实收到了来自观众的提问——是的。我们确实收到了——最新报价是 14.58 美元。我们收到了观众提问,我记得有一个来自 Rational Walk 的问题,问得非常具体:“如果那家公司主动联系你们,你们会有兴趣收购它的部分业务吗?”还有一个问题这样问道:“你们会有兴趣收购通用电气或西门子的部分业务吗?特别是如果这能帮助你们推进医疗保健计划?我是一位明星投资者,一位徒有虚名的明星投资者,手里有流动资产,收益率还低于预期通胀率。为什么不收购像通用电气或西门子医疗部门这样能产生现金的工业企业呢?这可以加强你们与摩根大通和亚马逊的医疗保健合作,因为早期诊断能为固定医疗成本带来长期节省。”对此你怎么看?
BECKY QUICKBut we did get questions from – yeah. We did get – $14.58 is the latest tick. We did get questions from viewers, I believe one came from the Rational Walk, that ask very specifically, "had the company approached you, would you be interested in buying parts of this?" There's another question that came in saying, "Would you be interested in buying parts of either General Electric or Siemens, particularly if it was something that would help you in your health care initiative? It's a star investor, vacuous star investor with liquid assets, earning less than projected inflation. Why not buy a cash generator industrial like GE or Siemens's health care unit? This could strengthen the health care partnership with JP Morgan and Amazon, as early diagnosis provides long-term savings to fixed health care." What do you say to something like that?
沃伦·巴菲特对,我们不会为了融入那个医疗健康计划而去收购一家医疗健康企业。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, we wouldn't buy a health care business to try it in with the health care initiative.
贝基·奎克你会仅仅因为这个价格就买入吗?
BECKY QUICKWould you buy it just simply because of prices on this?
沃伦·巴菲特如果我们看好一家企业,价格也合适,我们可以直接开支票付现金。这也适用于 GE。他们旗下有几个大业务,我觉得他们不想卖,但他们有些想卖的小部门。不过我们一直在寻找一家大企业,要我们能理解、喜欢,并且我们认为我们有合适的管理团队来管理,诸如此类。
WARREN BUFFETTIf we like the business and the price was right, we could write a check for cash. And that would apply to GE. They've got a few big businesses. I don't think they want to sell them, but they have some smaller units that they're interested in selling. But we're always in the market for a big business that we can understand and that we like, and we think that we've got the management for and so on.
贝基·奎克你了解 GE 吗?
BECKY QUICKDo you understand GE?
沃伦·巴菲特我并不完全了解这个领域,确实不完全了解。但我认为,既然伯克希尔旗下的业务或管理者有能力理解这些,那我应该也有能力去理解。
WARREN BUFFETTI don't understand the whole place, no. But I think I'd be capable of understanding, given the businesses or managers that we have at Berkshire would be capable of understanding those.
乔·科南嘿,贝基?
JOE KERNENHey, Beck?
沃伦·巴菲特所以,你知道,他们没就什么大业务找过我们。
WARREN BUFFETTSo, you know, they have not approached about any big business.
乔·科南只是——
JOE KERNENJust –
WARREN BUFFETT他们有一些小型业务——乔,你先说。不好意思。
WARREN BUFFETTThey've got some small businesses – go ahead, Joe. I'm sorry.
乔·科南抱歉,沃伦,我该放你走了。但我想明确一点,GE 嘛,我搞不清,他们——你看到这个了吗,贝基?他们担心我们怎么报道这事。会计准则——这不是——盈利重述并非因为 S.E.C. 调查,而是新会计规则所致。每家,你知道,我猜减税之后,每家公司都得照做。所以他们担心的是——
JOE KERNENSorry, Warren. And I'm going to let you go. But just for the record, GE is, I don't know, they're – do you see this, Becky? They're worried about how we're reporting it. So the accounting rules – this is not – the restatement of earnings is not due to the S.E.C. investigation. It's due to new accounting rules. Every, you know, I guess after the tax cut, every company is required to do it. So they're worried that –
贝基·奎克嗯,这些就是那些变化。我来问个问题。我一直对此感到很困惑,也许我们可以梳理一下。我们刚才在节目开头和沃伦讨论的那些会计变动,那些将影响你们未来经营的会计变动,这是否构成重述 2016 年和 2017 年收益的理由?
BECKY QUICKWell, this is – these are the changes. Let me ask. I've been very confused by this, and maybe we can hash through some of this. Those accounting changes, those accounting changes that we were just talking about with Warren at the top of the program, accounting changes the will affect what you are doing going forward, is that a reason to restate 2016 and 2017 earnings?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,就你今天上午说的这些来看——我对此一无所知。很明显,他们在保险准备金上出现了极其严重的计算失误。这种情况通常并不会——
WARREN BUFFETTWell, that just from what you've said this morning – I don't know anything about it. Obviously, they miscalculated their insurance reserves in a big, big way. That doesn't usually –
贝基·奎克我想这是——这和盈利重述没有关系。
BECKY QUICKI think this is – that's not related to restatement of earnings.
沃伦·巴菲特不,那通常不算重述。
WARREN BUFFETTNo, that doesn't usually count as a restatement.
贝基·奎克我们说的不是这个。
BECKY QUICKThat is not what we're talking about.
沃伦·巴菲特没错。
WARREN BUFFETTRight.
贝基·奎克这并非对上述任何问题的盈利重述——
BECKY QUICKThat is not restatement of earnings on any of these issues—
沃伦·巴菲特不。不。
WARREN BUFFETTNo. No.
贝基·奎克这些内容 GE 已经在这件事上说过了,我们是从那个角度来谈的。
BECKY QUICKThese are things that GE has already said on this, that we're talking about from that front.
沃伦·巴菲特是的,如果在经营过程中,或者将可能产生的未来收益资本化——以服务合同或其他类似形式记在账上——只要业务周期拉得很长,比如飞机或发动机这类东西,你在确认成本和收入的时间上就有很大灵活性。我猜证交会正在查这个。具体细节我毫不知情。但我猜他们正在查这个。我见过公司使用截然不同的——我完全不是在说通用电气——我见过它们在跨越多年的合同处理上采取完全不同的方法,尤其是对最初几个单位的处理,显然这些单位成本更高,因为刚切入业务。这里有很大的灵活性。管理层的保守或激进程度,可能至少决定好几年的利润数字。
WARREN BUFFETTYes, if in process business or amount capitalized as possible earnings in the future and – were put on the books for in terms of service contracts or something like that, anytime you get extended pieces of business, as you get an aircraft or engines and that sort of thing, there's a lot of flexibility in when you record both costs and revenue. And my guess is the S.E.C. is looking at that. I don't know a thing about it in that respect. But my guess is that they're looking at that. And I have seen companies use much different – and I'm not referring to General Electric at all – I've seen them use much different approaches to contracts that extend over years, and how they treat the first few units, which obviously have a higher cost because you're just getting into it. There's a lot of flexibility. And whether you have a conservative or an aggressive management can determine the earnings for at least a few years.
贝基·奎克对。对。好的,我们接下来还会和沃伦继续聊很多话题。我们也想谈谈富国银行。这也是很多观众来信提到的问题。我们稍后会讨论这个。另外,《黑豹》本周末的票房表现非常亮眼。这部电影刚刚实现了史上只有三部电影达成过的成绩。我们稍后带来详情。
BECKY QUICKRight. Right. All right, we have much more with Warren that we're going to continue to talk about. We want to talk about Wells Fargo, too. It's an issue that a lot of our viewers wrote in about as well. We'll get to that in just a moment. Also, a big weekend for Black Panther at the box office. The movie just did something that only three other movies have done, ever. We have the details right after this.
乔·科南《黑豹》跻身影史票房精英俱乐部。上周末在北美斩获 1.08 亿美元票房,成为仅有的第四部在上映第二周票房仍突破 1 亿美元的影片。另外三部分别是《星球大战:原力觉醒》《侏罗纪世界》和《复仇者联盟》。据 comScore 统计,上映 12 天后,这部影片全球票房已高达约 7.04 亿美元,而且信不信由你,它尚未在中国和日本上映,这两大市场显然是好莱坞产业最大的两个市场。稍后我们将回到奥马哈的贝基·奎克身边,沃伦·巴菲特正在那里回答观众提问。广告时间,先快速浏览一下当前欧洲市场的行情。
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JOE KERNENBlack Panther joining an elite group at the box office. It brought in $108 million in North America over the weekend, making it just the fourth film to top $100 million in its second week in theatres. The others were Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Jurassic World and The Avengers. Now after 12 days in theaters, the movie raked in roughly $704 million globally, and according to comScore, and it hasn't yet debuted in China and Japan, believe it or not. Those are two of the Hollywood, obviously, industry's biggest markets. Coming up, we'll get back out to Becky quick in Omaha, where Warren Buffett is answering questions from our viewers. As we head to break, here's a quick check on what's happening in the European markets right now.
贝基·奎克欢迎回到《财经论谈》,各位。今天早上我们在内布拉斯加州奥马哈,与伯克希尔·哈撒韦的董事长兼首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特一起直播。他一直在回答观众发来的问题。沃伦,我们收到大量问题都是关于富国银行的。
BECKY QUICKWelcome back to "Squawk Box," everybody. We are live in Omaha, Nebraska with Berkshire Hathaway's chairman and CEO Warren Buffett this morning. He's been answering questions that viewers have sent in. And Warren, one that we got lots of questions about was Wells Fargo.
沃伦·巴菲特这可以理解。
WARREN BUFFETTThat's understandable.
贝基·奎克好。Value Mojo 有用户提问:“你们现在对富国银行怎么看?美联储宣布资产增长计划之后,市场反应你觉得合理吗?这对富国银行的正常化盈利能力有什么影响?你还信任 CEO 蒂姆·斯隆吗?”
BECKY QUICKYeah. There was a question that came in from Value Mojo who says, "What are your current thoughts on Wells Fargo? Do you think the market reaction was justified after the Fed's announcements of the asset's growth plan? What's the impact on Wells's normalized earnings power? And do you still have confidence in CEO Tim Sloan?"
沃伦·巴菲特是的,我对蒂姆·斯隆有信心。但富国银行——这要追溯到很久以前——他们曾制定出一些糟糕的激励措施。激励这东西,如果你设对了方向,它会朝好的方向发挥作用。你在自己家里、各种事情上也是同样的道理。但他们当时的一些激励——他们的激励体系实际上在鼓励坏行为。而这些坏行为显然在部分分行比其他分行更具传染性,员工编造假账户之类的事情层出不穷。我是说,一旦人们看到上司也这么做,情况肯定会愈演愈烈。那是个大问题,但这种事就是会发生。可他们没做到的是,当有人报告这些恶劣行径确实在发生时,他们没有去纠正。所以又回到了那个问题——你知道的,28 年前所罗门兄弟发生过同样的事——管理层在发现问题严重偏离轨道时没有及时反应。然后问题就像滚雪球一样疯狂扩大。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, I have confidence in Tim Sloan. But Wells did – it goes way back, but they came up with some terrible incentives. And incentives work in both directions if you got the right incentives. And you do the same thing with your family, and all kinds of thing. And they had some incentives – they had an incentives system which incentivized bad behavior. And the bad behavior became somewhat contagious, apparently, in some offices more than others, where people put in phony accounts and all that sort of thing. I mean, once people saw their superiors doing it, I'm sure it picked up. But that was a bad problem, but that happens. But what they didn't do was they didn't correct it when they were getting word that effectively these terrible practices were taking place. So it gets back to the fact that, you know, the same thing that happened in Salomon, you know, 28 years ago, is that management didn't react when they found out that something had gone very much awry. And then it just compounds like crazy.
贝基·奎克公司采取了行动,所以前 CEO 约翰·斯坦普夫丢了工作。但紧接着,前美联储主席珍妮特·耶伦在即将离任时表态说:“我们无法容忍任何银行存在普遍且持续的不当行为,遭受富国银行伤害的消费者期待看到切实、全面的改革,确保这类滥用行为不再发生。”这是一个极其严厉的谴责,我印象中近期没见美联储这样干过。这也引发了关于现任管理层的疑问。您怎么看美联储的做法?另外我还想提一句,您的合伙人查理·芒格最近说,他认为监管机构是时候对富国银行放松些了。您怎么看?
BECKY QUICKThe company took action. That's why the former CEO John Stumpf lost his job. But then chairman – former Fed Reserve chairman Janet Yellen weighed in just as she was leaving her office and said, "We cannot tolerate pervasive and persistent misconduct at any bank. And the consumers harmed by Wells Fargo expect that robust and comprehensive reforms will be put in place to make certain that abuses do not occur again." That is a huge rebuke, one that I can't recall seeing something like this from the Fed Reserve in recent memory. And that brings up questions about current management, too. What do you think the Fed's doing? And I'll bring this up, too, Charlie Munger, your partner, just recently said he thinks regulators, it's time for them to let up on Wells Fargo. What do you think?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我不清楚这件事的全部细节。但我确实知道,1991 年,我成了一家同样冒犯了美联储的公司的 CEO。如果你因为以某种方式藐视美联储而惹恼了他们,那你可就麻烦大了,非常非常大。要想从这种困境中脱身需要时间。而且你还会发现别的问题。我想我上次说过,厨房里绝不会只有一只蟑螂。我的意思是,你还会发现其他事情。我在所罗门的时候一直对此感到恐惧,因为我不知道在我接手这份工作之前发生过什么。所以,你要服从你的政府。如果你不服从,后果会很严重。富国银行正在承受这些后果。但它们会挺过去的,而且这些后果并不是蒂姆·斯隆造成的。他一直在拼命工作,试图清理遗留问题。但他需要清理的东西实在太多了。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, I don't know all the facts on it. I do know that in 1991, I became the CEO of a company that similarly insulted the Federal Reserve. And if the Federal Reserve is mad at you because you've flouted them in one way or another, you know, you're in a big, big, big doghouse. And digging your way out of it takes time. And you find other things. I think I said last time, you know, there's never just one cockroach in the kitchen. I mean, and you find other things out. I was always terrified of that at Salomon, because I didn't know what had happened prior to my stepping into the job. So you know, you obey your government. And if you don't, you can have plenty of consequences. And Wells Fargo is suffering through those. But they will get through it, and they're not the consequences of what Tim Sloan did. He's been working like crazy and trying clean things up. But he's had a lot to clean up.
贝基·奎克你觉得“蟑螂”不会再出现了吗?
BECKY QUICKDo you think you've seen the last of the cockroaches?
沃伦·巴菲特我想是的。但这种事你永远说不准。我是说,如果你有 26 万或 27 万名员工,某个地方出了坏事,你会尽力去查。但那个——其实我自己就经历过那种处境,你知道,当时我有 8000 名员工。那段时间我每天早上醒来都提心吊胆,生怕翻开报纸发现又有谁干了什么。你就是——你没法确定。不过我会——我的猜测是,而且这仅仅是猜测,他们已经一遍又一遍地清查,查出了那些做错的事,而美联储和任何其他监管机构都会让他们为此付出代价,他们确实也已经为过去的错误付出了代价。这种事不是一天就能做完的,然后冲你挥挥手说:“恭喜你们。”
WARREN BUFFETTI think so. But that's what you never know. I mean, if you've got 260,000 or 270,000 employees, and there was bad activity someplace, you try to find out. But that – and I actually have been in that situation, well, you know, had 8,000 employees. And when I was – I woke up every morning terrified while I was in there that I would pick up the paper and find out that somebody else had done something. And you just – you can't be sure. Although I would – my guess is, and it's just a guess, is that they have scrubbed and scrubbed, and that they have found out the things that were done wrong, and the Fed and any other supervisor is going to make them pay, which they have, for past sins. And they don't just do it in one day and wave at you and say, "Congratulations."
贝基·奎克回到 2009 年的股东大会上,有人问过你,如果只能选一只股票押上全部身家,你当时说是富国银行。那今天呢,如果只许选一只股票投进所有钱,会是哪只?
BECKY QUICKBack in 2009 at the annual meeting, you were asked if you had one stock that you'd put all your money in, you said it would be Wells Fargo at that point. What stock would it be today, if you had one stock you had to put all your money in?
沃伦·巴菲特这个嘛,我所有的钱都投在伯克希尔了。99% 以上。对,除了国债之外,大概 99.8% 吧。所以那是我最放心的一只股票。倒不是说我对它的上涨潜力最有把握——实际上它并没有那么大——但要说会不会出什么坏事,我对伯克希尔最有信心。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, I've got all my money in Berkshire. 99% plus. Yeah, 99.8% or something like that, aside from treasuries. So that's the one I feel the best about. Not that I feel the best about it having the greatest upside potential, because it doesn't. But in terms of anything bad happening to it, I feel better about Berkshire.
贝基·奎克在伯克希尔之外,如果你非得选一只股票,有吗?
BECKY QUICKOutside of Berkshire, is there another stock, if you had to pick one?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,如果你看我们的持仓,你会以为我们是按持仓美元金额的大小顺序来喜欢它们的。但如果你看最近一年来的买入情况,我们买得最多的其实是苹果。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, if you look at our holdings, you would assume that we like them in the order in which they rank by dollar value of holdings. But if you look at them in terms of recent purchases, you know, over the last year, we've bought more Apple than anything else.
贝基·奎克我能不能拿这句话当头条——苹果是你最看好的股票?
BECKY QUICKCan I take it and run with that as a headline? Apple's your favorite stock?
沃伦·巴菲特我不这么认为——不,因为我没有告诉你们我过去一周或一个月可能买了什么。
WARREN BUFFETTI don't think – no because I haven't told you what I might have been buying in the last week. Or month.
贝基·奎克但苹果算得上顶级?
BECKY QUICKBut Apple ranks up there?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,苹果嘛,你知道,我们第一次买的时候股价大概在 105 美元左右。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, Apple, you know, it was – but it was selling at $105 or something like that when we first bought it.
贝基·奎克好,太好了。沃伦,我们马上会继续追问你这些问题中的一部分。
BECKY QUICKOkay, great. Warren, we are going to continue to press you on some of these issues in just a moment.
沃伦·巴菲特我看得出来。
WARREN BUFFETTI can tell.
贝基·奎克稍后回来,我们还有更多巴菲特先生的采访。与此同时,我们还会为您梳理今天的重要新闻。所有这些内容,包括通用电气董事会的大变动。别走开,《财经论坛》马上回来。
BECKY QUICKWhen we come back, we have more with Mr. Buffett. In the meantime, we will also give you a rundown of today's top stories. All of this coming up including big changes to the board of General Electric. Stick around, "Squawk Box" will be right back.
乔·科南早上好,欢迎回到 CNBC 的《财经论坛》节目,我们在时代广场的纳斯达克市场现场直播。我是乔·科南。今天就我一个人。贝基今早在奥马哈。原因很明显,她会与沃伦·巴菲特对话。但我没人可聊。我身边还有斯蒂克,我们的现场工作人员,贝基。不过我们保持密切联系。至少我们保持密切联系。
JOE KERNENGood morning and welcome back to "Squawk Box" here on CNBC live from the NASDAQ MarketSite in Times Square. I'm Joe Kernen. It's just me. Becky is in Omaha this morning. It is for a good reason, obviously, speaking with Warren Buffett. But I've got no one to talk to. I've got Stec, our guy on the set here, Becky. But we are in close contact. We are in close contact at least.
贝基·奎克在广告间歇我们一直在聊。
BECKY QUICKWe are, we have been talking through the commercial breaks.
乔·科南这个,我确实需要。
JOE KERNENWell, I needed to.
贝基·奎克你有不少话不吐不快。
BECKY QUICKA lot to get off your chest.
乔·科南唉,不管怎么说。这简直不可思议。我的意思是,我很高兴——你知道,人需要人。就是这么回事。
JOE KERNENWell, anyway. This is unbelievable. I mean I'm glad – you know, people need people. They just do.
贝基·奎克乔最怕的场景。
BECKY QUICKJoe's worst nightmare.
乔·科南美国股指期货目前的情况——我得赶紧说完回来找你,因为一个人在这儿挺孤独的。总之,以下是头条新闻。可以看到期货上涨 175 点。纳斯达克走势强劲。本时段的热点新闻,有些挺惊人的事儿。芯片制造商高通已敦促竞争对手博通就收购交易的报价进行直接谈判。高通继续认为博通此前的出价严重低估了公司价值。经济学家预计 1 月份新屋销售将出现反弹,相关数据将在美国东部时间 10:00 公布。市场共识预测增长 4%,部分扭转 12 月份 9.3% 的跌幅。通用电气正在调整董事会,缩减规模并新增三名董事。届时董事会将有 12 人。这三人分别是前财务会计准则委员会主席莱斯利·塞德曼、前美国航空首席执行官托马斯·霍顿和前丹纳赫首席执行官劳伦斯·卡尔普。并且,如之前宣布的那样,通用电气董事会总规模将从 18 人缩减至 12 人。所以,如果新增三人,总数还少了六人,那就意味着有一份名流名单——真的,这些人将不再寻求连任董事。我看了一眼这些名字:史蒂文·莫伦科普夫,我觉得他挺有名的,还有谢莉·拉扎勒斯、吉姆·罗尔、玛丽·夏皮罗、马赖恩·德克斯、苏珊·霍克菲尔德、彼得·亨利,以及钟彬娴。我想杰克·布伦南会继续担任首席董事,或者说,嗯,首席董事,过渡一段时间,协助过渡到新的首席董事,直到 2019 年。但之后他也不再寻求连任了。所以,让我们回到奥马哈的贝基和沃伦·巴菲特。有些问题,贝基,你可以和沃伦聊聊,关于董事会之前干什么去了,我想这大概算是对那些问题的一个回应吧。我的意思是,这董事会调整幅度挺大的。我觉得弗拉纳里显然想要一个不同的董事会。但看起来确实很大——
JOE KERNENU.S. equity futures at this hour – I'm going to hurry up and get back to you because it is very lonely. Anyway, here's what's making headlines. You can see the futures are up 175. The NASDAQ is strong. Making headlines this hour, and there are some pretty amazing things happening. Chip maker Qualcomm has urged rival Broadcom to engage in direct talks on a price for a takeover deal. Qualcomm continues to maintain that Broadcom's prior offer materially undervalues the company. And economists are looking for a rebound in new home sales for January, when those figures are reported at 10:00 Eastern time. Consensus forecasts call for a 4% jump partially reversing December's 9.3% slide. And General Electric is making some moves with its board, shrinking the board and adding three new directors. And now there will be 12. The three are former – one of them, former Financial Accountings Standards Board chairman Leslie Seidman, former American Airlines CEO Thomas Horton and former Danaher CEO Lawrence Culp. And as previously announced, the overall size of GE's board will be reduced to 12 from 18. So if you're adding three and still going down six, that leaves a who's-who list, really, of directors that won't stand for reelection. And I look at some of these names, Steven Mollenkopf, think he's pretty well known, Shelly Lazarus, Jim Rohr, Mary Schapiro, Marijn Dekkers, Susan Hockfield, Peter Henry, and Andrea Jung. And I think Jack Brennan will be staying as the lead director, or the, yeah, lead director for awhile to transition, to facilitate the transition to a new lead director until 2019. But then he won't stand for reelection either. So let's get back to Becky and Warren Buffett in Omaha. And there have been some questions, Becky, and you can talk to Warren about it, about where was the board, and I guess this is sort of an answer to those questions at this point. I mean, that's a pretty big reshuffling of the board. I guess maybe Flannery would want a different board, obviously. But seems like a pretty big—
贝基·奎克弗拉纳里上任后确实谈过要搞些改革。但我们当时真没想到,改革的范围会这么大。
BECKY QUICKSo Flannery has talked about this when he came in about some changes. But I don't think we realized quite how extensive those changes would be.
乔·科南对。你知道,PNC 的那个罗尔,还有莫伦科普夫,他是不是高通的人——不对,他不是高通的,但我得搞清楚这事——还有谢莉·拉扎勒斯——
JOE KERNENRight. And you know, Rohr from PNC, and Mollenkopf, is he Qualcomm or where – no, he's not Qualcomm, but I know the – I got to figure this out, but – Shelly Lazarus—
贝基·奎克那些家喻户晓的名字。
BECKY QUICKThe well-known names.
乔·科南玛丽·夏皮罗。这名单上可真是名人荟萃,对吧?所以我也想听听沃伦的看法。没错。
JOE KERNENMary Schapiro. These are really a who's-who list, right? So, I'd like to hear Warren's thoughts on that, too. Yeah.
贝基·奎克没错。沃伦,你怎么看?我是说,你显然关注通用电气很久了。从 2008 年起你一直是它的股东,持有好些年,直到后来以 27 美元的价格卖掉那些股份。那边变化很大,连着好几年重述利润,还提到一些新实施的会计准则——但听起来他们确实在改某些长期合同的记账方式。
BECKY QUICKThat's right. Warren, what do you think? I mean, obviously you've watched GE for a long time. You were a shareholder for quite a number of years, from 2008 through when you sold those shares that were at $27 at that point. Big changes there. Restating earnings for a couple of years, and talking about some different accounting standards that have been put into place, but it does sound like they are changing the way they account for some long term contracts.
沃伦·巴菲特听起来是这样。我的意思是,我没读过什么相关的——就一直坐在这里,但听起来他们在改——当你造一艘船或类似的东西花了五年时间——不是说他们在造船,但确实有会计方法用来处理这类在制活动。公司在这方面可以相当激进,也可以相当保守。而且——我——我对通用电气没什么具体了解。
WARREN BUFFETTIt-- sounds that way. I mean, I haven't read anything-- just been sitting here, but it sounds like they are changing--when you build a ship or something like that over five years-- not that they're building ships, but you do have ways of accounting for sorta the in process activity. And companies can be quite aggressive in that. They can be quite conservative at that. And-- I had-- I don't know anything specific about General Electric.
贝基·奎克你能理解约翰·弗兰纳里进来后想做——
BECKY QUICKYou would understand John Flannery coming in and wanting to—
沃伦·巴菲特清理门户,没错。
WARREN BUFFETTClean house, yeah.
贝基·奎克嗯,对,确保他全程都按自己的方式来做这件事。
BECKY QUICKWell, yeah, make sure that he's doing things his way going through the entire process.
沃伦·巴菲特当然。对,如果——有人请我去经营通用电气,他们永远不会这么做,而且他们不这么做是明智的,但有很多东西需要你花心思去了解。我的意思是,你知道,从过去的保险合同到这些长期合同和服务合同,你要处理的事情实在太多了。所以,你不可能在第一天、第一周或第一个月就全部搞定,我不会因此责怪任何人。对于那么复杂和广泛的业务,总有一些东西需要学习。
WARREN BUFFETTSure. Yeah, if-- I were brought in to run GE which they never would do, and they'd be wise not to, but there'd be a lot to get your mind around. I mean, you know, from the old insurance contracts to these long term contracts and service contracts, and there's just a lot on your plate. And-- so the fact that you don't have it all in place the first day, the first week or the first month I don't blame anybody for that. There's-- things to learn with something that complicated and widespread.
贝基·奎克好的——有一类问题很多人写信来问,是关于企业社会责任的各种变体。我先从其中一个问题开始。提问者是 Tominori Isakawa,他写了两个应景的问题:第一,伯克希尔是否投资或拥有枪支制造商;第二,从精算角度看,枪支拥有情况是否对财产险和意外险保费有影响?而且——鉴于近期新闻头条——关于校园枪击案的报道,类似的问题还有很多。但更广泛地看,这是关于整体企业社会责任,以及拉里·芬克(贝莱德首席执行官)谈到的一些事情。
BECKY QUICKOkay-- one thing that we got a lotta questions that people wrote in about are- variations on forms of corporate social responsibility. I'll start with one of the questions-- that came in. This is from Tominori Isakawa who wrote two topical questions. Does Berkshire investor or own gun manufacturers and then number two, actuarially does gun ownership have an effect on property and casualty premiums? And-- these are-- there were a lotta questions in this vein that came in just given the headlines that have been out there-- about what's been happening with school shootings. But broader than that, just corporate social responsibility overall and some of the things Larry Fink's talked about.
沃伦·巴菲特是的,我们并不持有任何枪支制造商,但我并没有发布任何禁令,比如说,禁止伯克希尔除我之外管理资金的那两位经理持有枪支制造商的股票。他们可以持有枪支制造商的股票。他们也可以持有酒类制造商的股票。我们确实持有帝亚吉欧(Diageo)的股票,而且持有了很长时间,这是一家酒类制造商。所以——我们有——但据我所知,我们并不——我知道我们碰巧没有持有任何枪支制造商。然后——第二点是——
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, we don't own any gun manufacturers but I have not issued any edict, for example, to the two managers that-- run money besides me at Berkshire that they can't own stock in gun manufacturers. They can own stock in man-- gun manufacturers. They can own stock in liquor manufacturers. We do own stock in Diageo and have for a long time, which-- liquor manufacturer. And so-- we have-- but to my knowledge we don't--I know we don't own any happen to own any-- gun manufacturers. And-- the second point was—
贝基·奎克第二点是——从精算角度看,枪支拥有情况是否对财产险和意外险保费有影响。
BECKY QUICKThe second point was-- does-- from an actuarial perspective does gun ownership have an effect on propertyand casualty premiums.
沃伦·巴菲特不,确实没影响。确实没影响。不会——也许有某类非常冷门的个人保单让人联想到——但就标准商业保险而言,没有。这个——那个——我从没遇见过——我从事保险行业这么多年,不记得有哪次碰到过这种情况。
WARREN BUFFETTNo, it really doesn't. It really doesn't. No-- there might be some very weird personal policy that you might conceivably-- but in terms of standard business, no. The-- that-- I don't know of any-- I don't know of any time it's come up in the years I've been in the insurance business.
贝基·奎克目前——贝莱德的拉里·芬克以及其他人正在发起一项行动,他们公开表示希望对所投资的公司施加更大的影响,想在公司的决策中有更多发言权。不过,这个领域很容易出问题——极有可能出现失误。因为一旦迈出这一步,你就有可能疏远一半——甚至多达一半的客户。那么,你在这个问题上持什么立场?
BECKY QUICKThere-- is a movement from Larry Fink-- at Blackrock and from others who are kind of stepping into this saying that they would like to have more of an impact on the companies that they are investing in, that they would like to have maybe a little more say in what's happening. It's an arena that can get pretty fraught-- with potential missteps, though. Because by taking a step you're potentially alienating half-- up to half of your customers. Sowhere do you come down?
沃伦·巴菲特是啊,这——这事挺复杂。我是说,我——但如果我多年前就知道富国银行当时在发生什么,我其实是一直在为他们叫好的。但富国银行——我们跟他们有大量业务往来。他们——犯了一个大错,并由这个大错引发了一系列其他错误。但——伯克希尔也犯过错,你知道,所罗门出问题的时候我也卷进去了。我——你找不出哪家大公司一点问题都没有。我是说——最好的——最好的防范措施就是举报热线。而且——我们通过热线发现了伯克希尔内部不少问题——
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, it-- it's complicated. I mean, did I-- but I've been cheering for what was going on at Wells Fargo if I'd known about it years ago. But Wells Fargo-- we do lots of business with them. They-- made a big mistake and some others that flowed out of the big mistake. But-- Berkshire's made mistakes and, you know, I got involved in Solomon when they made a mistake. I-- you will not find any large company that doesn't have some problems of one sort or another. I mean-- the best-- the best defense is a hotline. And-- we have found out more things that have been wrong at Berkshire through the hotline—
贝基·奎克但我认为这和发现欺诈、不当行为或有人做错事有点不同。这说的是投资公司、银行主动介入,公开表态说,“我们不同意某个特定团体”——无论是全国步枪协会,还是——想就移民或类似问题表明立场。你确实看到越来越多的首席执行官涉足政治舞台,公开他们的观点。而你,是那种不怕谈论自己投票给谁、支持谁的人。
BECKY QUICKBut I--think this is a little different than finding out cases of fraud or wrongdoing or somebody doing things that are wrong. This is a case of investing companies, of banking companies potentially getting in and saying, "We don't agree with a particular group," be it the NRA, be it-- we want to take a stand on immigration, something along those lines. You do see more and more CEOs who are kind of wading into the political arena and making their views known. You are somebody who's not shied away from talking about who you vote for and who you support.
沃伦·巴菲特是的。嗯,在政治方面——你知道,我并没有把自己的政治主张放进保密信托。但另一方面,我表达这些观点并不代表伯克希尔。据我所知,伯克希尔——母公司从未向政客进行过任何政治捐款。而且我也不认为,把我的个人观点强加给 37 万名员工和 100 万名股东是合适的——我的意思是,他们——我不是他们的保姆。就算我为希拉里工作过,我也不知道我们的经理们投票给了谁——所以我认为你必须相当谨慎——如果你说,“因为社会价值方面的原因,我们不会搭乘这家航空公司的航班”或者“我们不会使用那条铁路”,那——你总会找到毛病。我是说,我极为敬佩沃尔玛和好事多。它们卖香烟。我们——实际上通过旗下的麦克莱恩公司(McLane),将产品从制造商那里分销到沃尔玛、7-11 以及各种店面。我觉得——把个人观点拿来试图强加给一个组织,这是个错误。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. No, in terms of politics-- you know, I have not put my politics in a blind trust. On the other hand, I don't speak for Berkshire in doing that. Berkshire, to my knowledge-- Berkshire the parent company never had any contributions to politicians. And I don't believe that imposing my views on 370,000 employees and a million shareholders-- I mean, they d-- I'm not their nanny on that. And if I worked for Hillary but I don't know who our managers voted for and-- so I think you have to be pretty careful-- if you're saying, you know, "We're not gonna fly on this airline because of that, or we're not gonna use this railroad because of that in terms of social." Because -- you'll find something. I mean, I-- admire enormously Walmart and Costco. They sell cigarettes. We-- actually distribute between the manufacturer through our Mclane company to Walmart and 7-11s and all kinds. I think that-- I think it's a mistake to get-- start getting personal views andtrying to impose 'em on an organization.
贝基·奎克然而,就在最近几周——自上次校园枪击案以来,我们已经看到了大量这样的情况。
BECKY QUICKYet, we have seen-- a lot of that just over the last couple of weeks since the last school shooting.
沃伦·巴菲特是啊。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah.
贝基·奎克确实有一些公司——
BECKY QUICKAnd there have been some companies—
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我对枪支管理法有自己的看法,但我不认为这些看法就是伯克希尔的观点。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, I've got views on gun laws, but I don't think they're Berkshire's views.
贝基·奎克那么,您不认为这是公司董事会应该讨论的事情吗?
BECKY QUICKAnd so you don't think it's something that corporate boards should be talking about?
沃伦·巴菲特我认为在一家公司抛出重大政治主张之前,应该相当谨慎——当社会已经就某件事形成共识时,他们说,“哦,我们打算——我们打算持不同观点。”另外——我还认为,个人应该非常充分地表达自己的看法。我的意思是,我觉得这些孩子们正在做的事——非常值得赞赏。但是——我不认为伯克希尔应该说,“我们不再和持枪的人做生意了。”我觉得那太荒唐了。
WARREN BUFFETTI think you should be pretty careful before-- a company takes a big political opinion and something that society has decided that they say, "Well, we're going to-- we're going to have a different view." Now-- I also think people individually should very much express their views. I mean, I think what the kids are doing-- there is very admirable. But-- I don't think that Berkshire should say, "We're not going to do business with people that hold guns." I think it'd be ridiculous.
贝基·奎克好,我们来聊聊之前提到的一些持仓。上一个环节快结束时,我们谈到苹果,根据我们看到的监管文件,这是你们买入最频繁、仓位最重的一只股票。有许多关于苹果的问题进来,大家想知道,为什么你们现在要在这只股票上翻倍甚至三倍押注?
BECKY QUICKOkay, let's talk about some of the holdings that-- we mentioned before. At the end of the last block we were talking about Apple which is the stock according to the filings that we've seen that you've been buying most frequently and most heavily. There are a lotta questions that have come in on Apple and-- people wanna know why you're doubling or tripling down on this stock at this point?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,他们可能想知道,但我不打算告诉他们。我是说,他们可以看我们的行动,我们每三个月必须报告一次。但我们做的不是投资咨询业务。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, they might wanna know but I'm not gonna tell 'em. I mean, they can look at our actions and we have to report those every three months. But we're not in the investment advisory business.
贝基·奎克你为什么喜欢它——
BECKY QUICKWhy do you like it—
沃伦·巴菲特这是专有的——这些看法——你知道,它们实际上是伯克希尔的专有信息。它们属于伯克希尔的股东。
WARREN BUFFETTIt's propriety-- the views-- you know, those are proprietary, in effect, to Berkshire. They belong to the Berkshire shareholders.
贝基·奎克说到一个收到的提问,有人问您,您长期以来一直推崇自己投资的公司股票——比如喝着可口可乐、在冰雪皇后吃东西,或者做各种这类事情来谈论伯克希尔旗下的股票和公司。但您还在用翻盖手机。他想知道您是否会考虑买一部智能手机,比如苹果手机。
BECKY QUICKJust in terms of one question that came in, there was someone who was asking about you've long touted the stocks that you bought into by drinking some-- drinking Coca-Cola or eating at Dairy Queen or doing all of these different things to talk about the stocks and the companies that Berkshire owns. But you still have your flip phone. Wanted to know if you were ever going to get a smart phone, an Apple phone.
沃伦·巴菲特对,蒂姆·库克问过我这个问题。答案就是,我跟不上时代了。但——我跟蒂姆说,只要我还没买,市场就没饱和。我是说,等我哪天买了一部,后面估计就没人可卖了。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, well, Tim Cook's ac-- asked me that Well, the answer is just I'm out of touch. But-- I tell Tim that as long as I haven't gotten one, the market's not saturated. I mean, the day I buy one, there's probably nobody left after that.
贝基·奎克再聊聊你们持有的其他几只股票吧。有个问题来自卡夫亨氏,是关于它刚发布的一则公告。提问者是伊凡·卡,他说:“这是否表明巴菲特先生正在减少对该公司的直接参与?”他指的是那条标题——“卡夫亨氏宣布沃伦·巴菲特从董事会退休”。
BECKY QUICKWanna talk through a couple of the other stocks that you hold too. One question that came in-- from Kraft Heinz was a question about the announcement that Kraft Heinz just put out. This came from Ivan the K. He says, "Is this a sign that Mr. Buffett is scaling back his direct participation in the business?" He was referring to the headline, "Kraft Heinz reports retirement of Warren Buffett from board."
沃伦·巴菲特不,那个——在卡夫——呃,在亨氏交易之前,我没在任何外部董事会任职。后来的 3G 公司,我们的合作伙伴,问我能不能去待一阵子,我说,“行。”但这事儿挺花时间的——一年有五次会议。每次会议大约一天半。我的意思是,你前一天下午就得过去,他们——所以——其实是一天半。那么一年五次会议,就是七天半。伯克希尔还有另外两个人也在那个董事会。说实话,我跟 3G 那些伙计们同样可以沟通。所以这并没有改变什么。只不过一年给我省了七天半时间,而我也不想进任何外部董事会。我的意思是,那太耗时间了——我时间没那么富裕。
WARREN BUFFETTNo, that's-- I wasn't on any outside board till the Kraft-- well, till the Heinz deal came along first, and then the 3G, our partners, asked if I would go on for a while and I said, "Fine." But it takes-- there's five meetings a year. It's about a day and a half for a meeting. I mean, you go in the previous afternoon and-- they-- so, it-- it's really a day and a half. So if you have five meetings, that's seven and a half days a year. We have two other people on the board from Berkshire. And the truth is I'll talk to the 3G fellows the same way. And so it doesn't change anything about it. It just saves me seven and a half days a year, and I don't wanna be on any outside boards. I mean, it just-- it's time consuming and-- - I haven't got that much time.
贝基·奎克但这并不表示任何——
BECKY QUICKBut it doesn't indicate any—
沃伦·巴菲特零。
WARREN BUFFETTZero.
贝基·奎克——表明对这项业务的兴趣丝毫未减。
BECKY QUICK--of-- a declining interest in the business at all.
沃伦·巴菲特哦,不,不——我们一股都不会改。格雷格·阿贝尔和特雷西·布里特·库尔已经在董事会里了。我们本来可以自己再加一个人,但亚历山大·范达默会进去。我认识他,他在公司有大笔投资。我喜欢这个事实——他会比我强得多——他会成为更棒的董事,因为他喜欢出差。
WARREN BUFFETTOh, no, no, we-- we're not gonna change a share. We've got Greg Abel and-and Tracy Britt Cool on the board. We could've put somebody additional ourselves, but Alexander Van Damme is going on there. I know him. He's got a huge investment in the company. I love the fact-- he's much-- gonna be a much better director than I am he likes to travel.
贝基·奎克好的,太棒了。我们会继续跟沃伦聊这个话题。不过,乔,我们现在把画面切回演播室给您——我们要进一段广告了。
BECKY QUICKOkay, great. We're gonna continue this conversation with Warren. But, Joe, right now we'll send it back to you in the studio-- as we head to a break.
乔·科南沃伦,你总是——你知道,有时候——我觉得我们快偏题了,然后他又——他又把我拉回来了。你刚才对问题的回答,沃伦,真是说到点子上,恰到好处。我们每个人都有个人观点,我们也应该尽一切可能按这些观点行动,去争取我们在社会中想要的东西,以我们认为基于个人观点应有的方式。但关键是不是“个人观点”这个词?我就来唱唱反调。我能想到某些人想让公司表态的事,跟另一些人想要的截然相反。你也能想到吧。社会上的敏感议题,不管是堕胎还是 LGBT 问题,你知道,左派总是觉得——他们那么确信自己掌握了所有答案,自己是对的,简直无法相信会有人在他们对美德之类事情的看法上持有异议。但如果右派拿一些——左派会觉得是疯狂的想法进来,而且你——你给公司施压,让它们跟你站在一起,那根本行不通。但这——这阻挡不了媒体里的思想警察。媒体会发疯,试图羞辱公司——但你刚才的回答完全正确。而且你——你也没客气。我的意思是,如果你跟拉里·芬克聊天,你会跟他说:“拉里,你都在想什么?”我是说,你会这么跟他说吗?就像——“我欣赏你的观点,但是——”
JOE KERNENWarren, always-- you know, sometimes-- I feel likewe're drifting and then he pull-- he pulls me back in. And that answer on the-- on your questions, Warren, was so apt and so appropriate. We all have personal views, and we should act on those in every way that we can to try to-- to get what we want in society the way that we think it should be based on our personal views. But isn't that the operative word, "personal views?" I can just play devil's advocate. And I can think of some things that certain individuals would want companies to take a stand on that are diametrically opposed to what other people want. And-- you can think of 'em, too. The-- hot button issue in society, whether it's abortion or LGBT issues, and, you know, the left always feels like they're-- they're so sure that they've got all the answers and that they're right that they can't believe anyone would disagree on how they feel about virtue and things. But if you had the right come in with some of-- what they-- what the left would feel are insane ideas and you had-- and you were pressuring corporations to take a stand with you, it just doesn't work that way. But that-- that's not gonna stop the-- that's not gonna stop the thought police in the media. The media goes crazy and tries to shame-- corporations into-- but your answer was so right on. And-- you didn't pull any punches, either. I mean, would you tell Larry Fink, if you had a conversation with him-- would you say, "Larry, what are you thinking?" I mean, would you say that to him? It's like, "I love your views but--"
沃伦·巴菲特我会告诉他我的想法。但问题在于——问题在于两边都走极端——每当人们开始讨论这类问题时,我总会说,“咱们聊点不引发争议的话题,比如宗教。”
WARREN BUFFETTI would tell him what I thought. But it's the-- it's the extremes on both sides-- whenever people get going on those kinda questions, I always say, "Let's talk about something noncontroversial like religion."
乔·科南就是说啊,没错。
JOE KERNENI mean, exactly.
沃伦·巴菲特就这样——
WARREN BUFFETTIt just—
乔·科南我是说,盐——你知道——红肉——老天爷,那些东西。你要——就是——每个人都有自己的一套。所以才叫个人观点嘛。你知道,所以——我也不清楚。反正——我跑题了,但我们很喜欢听你讲。不过——沃伦,就像我说的——回答得好极了。谢谢你。然后贝基,那——那讨论得不错。广告之后我们还会和沃伦、贝基聊更多。现在——看看市场行情——马上。大家能看到,大幅上涨,涨了 190 点。标普涨 13 点。纳斯达克涨 30 点。十年期国债目前在 2.9% 以下交易。也许跟这有点关系——实际上是 2.85。也许这就是市场走强的原因。利率低的时候他们喜欢。这是油价——又回到 63.5 美元。您正在收看《财经快讯》。今天到 9 点为止,更多沃伦·巴菲特的内容。请继续关注。
JOE KERNENI mean, salt-- you know-- red meat-- God almighty, any of that stuff. If you-- there's just-- everybody's got it. That's why they're called personal views. You know, so-- I don't know. Anyway-- but I digress, and we love hearing from you. But-- Warren, like I said-- great answer. Thank you and then Becky, that was-- that was a good discussion. We'll have-- much more from Warren and Becky after the break. Let's get-- a check on the markets-- right now. As you can see sharply higher up 190 points. Up 13 on the S& P. NASDAQ up 30. The ten-year note changing hands now below 2.9%. Maybe that has something to do-- 2.85, in fact. Maybe that's why the markets are strong. They like it when rates stay low. And here's oil-- which is back to 63.5. You're watching Squawk Box. More Warren Buffett, all the way till 9:00 today. Stay with us.
乔·科南欢迎回到《财经快讯》。在赶回奥马哈找沃伦·巴菲特和贝基之前,先看几条新闻。三星昨天在巴塞罗那世界移动通信大会上发布了新款 Galaxy S9 智能手机。这是首款搭载高通——高通新款骁龙 845 芯片的手机。这手机价格不菲,S9 定价 720 美元,尺寸更大的 S9 Plus 定价 840 美元。两款都将在 3 月 16 日开售。我们得跟沃伦聊聊。也许——就是那款智能手机——你知道,我们想当然觉得他会买那款。不过我猜他大概会买苹果吧——毕竟他持有那么多苹果股票。反正我们会问他的。菲亚特克莱斯勒计划到 2022 年在车型阵容中淘汰柴油车型。《金融时报》报道称,大众尾气排放丑闻导致柴油需求下降,菲亚特克莱斯勒此举紧随其后。菲亚特克莱斯勒不在美国销售柴油车,但在欧洲和亚洲,柴油车很受欢迎。加油站的油价小幅走低。过去两周,普通无铅汽油均价下跌 6 美分,至每加仑 2.59 美元。这是自去年 12 月以来首次下跌——但汽油价格仍比一年前高出约 25 美分。我们是切回贝基那儿,还是先进一段广告?我想是切回贝基那儿吧。贝基,我——你知道,我给人发短信的时候——当我发出去显示蓝色,收到回信显示绿色,我就很纳闷——那是说对方没用苹果手机还是怎么着?我不——我喜欢那个蓝色。你知道,我不懂。为什么会——真有人用 Galaxy 或三星吗——你明白我在说——你完全不知道我在说——
JOE KERNENWelcome back to Squawk Box. A few headlines before we head back to Omaha and Warren Buffett and Becky. Samsung unveiling its new Galaxy S9 smart phone yesterday at the mobile world congress in Barcelona. It's the first phone to use QUALCOMM's-- QUALCOMM's new Snapdragon 845 chip. The phone is pretty expensive, priced at $720 for the S9 and $840 for the larger-- S9 Plus. Both will be available on March 16. We gotta talk to Warren. Maybe-- that's the smart phone that-- you know, we just assume he'd buy. And I guess he'd probably buy an Apple, though-- since he owns all that stock. We'll ask him, anyway. Fiat Chrysler's planning to eliminate-- diesel models-- from its vehicle lineup by 2022. Financial Times reports that the move follows a drop in demand in the wake of Volkswagen's emissions cheating scandal. Fiat Chrysler doesn't-- sell diesel cars in the U.S., but they're popular in Europe and Asia. Prices at the pump edging lower. The average price of regular unleaded fell six cents in the past two weeks-- to $2.59-- a gallon. That's the first decline since December-- but gas prices are still about 25 cents higher-- than a year ago. Are we goin' back to Becky or we goin' to break? I think we're goin' back to Becky. Becky, I-- you know, when I text people and-- when I send it and it goes in blue and I get things back in green, it's like I don't even-- is that, like, not an Apple phone or somethin'? I don't-- I like the blue. You know, I don't know. Why do-- do some people really have Galaxy phones or Samsung or-- do you know what I'm talk-- you have no idea what I--
贝基·奎克我想我知道。是的,我确实明白你在说什么,但我不知道答案是什么。我猜这在于你是不是在 iPhone 生态系统里,这会有区别。这是不是原因之一?
BECKY QUICKI think so. Yeah, I do know what you're talkin' about, but I don't know what the answer is. I guess there's a change, whether you're in the iPhone ecosystem or not. Is that part of the reason.
乔·科南如果对方不在 iPhone 生态系统里,我就会对这个人……印象差一些。
JOE KERNENI think less of people when they're not-- in the iPhone ecosystem.
贝基·奎克那是因为你追求的就是身份和——身份象征,对吧。
BECKY QUICKThat's because you are all about status and-- status symbols, right.
乔·科南我只是技术上很懂行。我技术相当懂行。但是——比起那种绿白相间的,我更喜欢蓝色,喜欢得多。什么——嘿,你——这都活在哪个世纪了?这绿色的东西是什么鬼?去搞一部 iPhone 10。搞一部 X。去搞一部 10——沃伦。拜托。
JOE KERNENI'm just very tech savvy. I'm very tech savvy. But if-- I like blue a lot better-- it's like green and white. What---- hey, where-- what century are you living in? What is this green thing? Get a 10. Get an X. Get a 10-- Warren. Come on.
贝基·奎克您——您要是买智能手机的话——您会买哪一款?
BECKY QUICKYou-- if you were buying a smart phone what-- which one would you buy?
沃伦·巴菲特哦,我肯定买苹果。
WARREN BUFFETTOh, I'd definitely buy an Apple.
乔·科南瞧见没?
JOE KERNENSee?
沃伦·巴菲特顺便说一句——
WARREN BUFFETTIncidentally--
乔·科南瞧见没?
JOE KERNENSee?
沃伦·巴菲特三星呢,虽说没——它们在半导体上赚了大钱,赚得相当多——但它们可能是全球——你知道,利——利润排第二的公司。我是说,它们大概赚了——我觉得大概赚了——这么说吧,你换算一下,大概 50 万亿韩元之类的。但数字很大。是——是多少来着?我不知道,也许是 108。不过——它们大概赚了 4500 万美元左右。我最近没看过这数。这年头能赚 4500 万美元的公司不多。
WARREN BUFFETTSamsung, although they didn't-- they made the money in semiconductors to a very great-- but they could be the second highest earning company in the-- you know, in-- in the world. I mean, they earned about-- I think they earned about-- well, you get into one, so $50 trillion or something like that. But-it's a lot. Is it-- what is it? I don't know, 108. But-- they probably earned somewhere around $45 million or something. I haven't looked at it recently. And there aren't too many companies around that earn $45 million.
贝基·奎克是啊。而且是不在大宗商品领域里——
BECKY QUICKRight. That aren't in commodities--
沃伦·巴菲特它们——但它们在手机上赚的钱——远远没有那么多,当时看起来——现在看来——手机上不是这样。去年半导体业务才是真正的狂飙。
WARREN BUFFETTThey—but they did not make as much-- remotely as much money, it didn't look-- doesn't look like it in phones. It was semiconductor business ran wild last year.
贝基·奎克这正好让你稍微看到一点——巴菲特先生是如何——一直都在读——差不多每一家公司的财报。
BECKY QUICKJust shows you a little bit about how-- Mr. Buffett is always reading-- the financial statements of just about every company out there.
沃伦·巴菲特我就是爱读。
WARREN BUFFETTI like to read.
贝基·奎克这你就当是在找乐子,对吧?
BECKY QUICKIt's what you do for your fun time, right?
沃伦·巴菲特对——对,那确实是我的欢乐时光。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah-- yeah, that is my fun time.
贝基·奎克那是你的欢乐时光,对。沃伦,我想跟你聊聊你今年在致股东信里写的另一件事,就是关于杠杆以及它的危险性。我提起这个话题,是因为今天《华尔街日报》头版正好有一篇报道,全在讲保证金、保证金逐险如何加剧了这轮抛售。市场波动如此剧烈,部分原因在于——散户和机构投资者以投资组合作抵押,共借入了 6428 亿美元。这会在股市引发各种连锁反应,等价格终于跌下来的时候,会给普通人带来实实在在的冲击。
BECKY QUICKThat is your fun time, right. Warren, I wanna talk to you about something you wrote in the annual letter this year, and that's talking about leverage and how dangerous that can be. And I bring it up because it happens that one of the stories on the front page of The Wall Street Journal today is all about margins, margin bets, fueling the selloff. Part of the reason we've seen so much volatility is that-- $642.8 billion had been borrowed by retail and institutional investors against their portfolio. That can lead to all kinds of-- machinations in the stock market, send some real impact to people when prices finally go down.
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,这事挺有意思的。1929 年股灾之后,当时保证金比例是 10%,后来他们实际上赋予了美联储设定保证金要求的权力以及相关权限。当然,我想美联储现在确实有这个权力,但整个局面已经变了,人们通过衍生品、指数、期货之类的东西绕开了这些限制。所以人们可以在股票上赌博,而人们喜欢赌。我是说,有很多人就是喜欢赌。但有一点你躲不开——在我进入伯克希尔的 53 年里,公司股价有四次下跌了 40% 到 60%。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Well, it-- it's interesting. After the '29 crash when they had ten percent margins, they actually-- gave the Federal Reserve the power to set margin requirements and everything. And then of course-- and I think the Fed-- does have that power. But-- the whole thing has been-- they moved by derivatives and index, futures and that sort of thing. So people can gamble in stocks and people like to gamble. I mean-- a lotta people like to gamble. But you can't-- four times in the 53 years I've been at Berkshire, the stock has gone down anywhere from 40% to 60%.
贝基·奎克伯克希尔的股票?
BECKY QUICKBerkshire shares?
沃伦·巴菲特伯克希尔的股票。
WARREN BUFFETTBerkshire shares.
贝基·奎克是的。
BECKY QUICKYeah.
沃伦·巴菲特就是——有的还不是慢慢跌,1987 年 10 月那次跌得非常快。人们当时持有的是相当不错的投资。但如果他们用这些股票抵押借钱,就会赔得精光。在我看来,用证券借钱简直是疯了。你完全不知道自己借过了头。你根本不知道明天早上证券交易所还会不会开门。我是说,我们真关过交易所,一战期间关过一次,关了好几个月;9/11 之后也关了几天。所以当情况发生时——我在年报里写过,拿自己拥有且必需的东西,去冒险博取一些你并不真的需要的东西,这是极不明智的。而且你知道,借钱是试图让自己更快变富的一种方式,但慢慢变富的好办法有的是,你同时还能在变富的过程中享受很多乐趣。我的合伙人查理说过,聪明人破产只有三种途径,他说:"烈酒、女人和杠杆(liquor, ladies and leverage)。"说真的,前两个纯粹是因为单词都以 L 开头才给凑上的,根源就是杠杆。当有人跟你吹嘘自己如何东山再起、又赚了第二笔大钱,我一点也不觉得佩服,因为他当初到底为什么会把第一笔钱赔光呢?我是说,这完全没道理。根本没有理由去借钱,除非你急不可耐地想发财,而你这么做的同时,是在冒险走向破产,并承受破产可能带给家人的一切后果。我不赞成用证券借钱。
WARREN BUFFETTJust-- and some not-- well, very fast in October of 1987. And-- people had a perfectly decent investment. If they borrow against it, they lose it. I-- it is crazy in my view to borrow money on securities. You-- you do not know to borrow more. You don't know whether the stock exchange will be open tomorrow morning. I mean, they-- we have closed the stock exchange, one time during World War I. We closed it for months. We closed it after 9/11 for a few days. It-- when-- it's-- I put in the annual report-- it's insane to risk what you have and need for something you don't really need. And---- you know, borrowing money is a way of trying to get rich a little faster, but there are plenty of good ways to get rich slowly. And-- you can-- you can have a lotta fun while you're getting rich as well. My partner, Charlie, says that there's only three ways that a smart person can go broke. He says, "Liquor, lays and leverage." Now the truth is the first two he just added because they started with L. It's leverage, and-- when somebody tells you how they came back and made a second fortune, I'm not impressed 'cause why the hell would they lose their first fortune? I mean, you know, there's no reason. There's just no reason to borrow money except you're in a hurry to get rich and you're risking going broke and all the effects it can have on your family. I'm-- I do not believe in borrowing money on security.
贝基·奎克有观众写信进来问了一个问题,就是想问——你们是怎么做到的,具体来说——让我找找问题——是怎么让自己忍住不去那么做的。因为过去有些时候,你们的点子确实比钱多。
BECKY QUICKThere was a question that someone had written in-- just asking-- about how you do that just in terms of-- let's see if I can find it -- just in terms of getting yourself to not do it. Because you have at times in the past have had more ideas than you had money.
沃伦·巴菲特一向如此。得了吧——
WARREN BUFFETTAlways. Come on—
贝基·奎克你是如何做到那么自律的?
BECKY QUICKHow did you have the self-discipline?
沃伦·巴菲特——嗯,头三十年确实如此。
WARREN BUFFETT--well, first 30 years, yeah.
贝基·奎克你是怎么做到,在那种情况下也不放手去加杠杆的?
BECKY QUICKHow did you have the self-discipline to not go ahead and get levered up in those situations?
沃伦·巴菲特我刚毕业时手里有 1 万美元,我一点都不觉得不开心。我过得挺乐呵。我到处找东西买。等我把那 1 万美元花光了,没钱了,那我就继续找,找比我手里已有的更好的东西。但——我是说——如果你觉得——你有 10 万美元就会不快乐,非要 100 万美元才能让你开心,那这根本不会成真。你明白吧,我的意思是——然后你左顾右盼,就会看到别人有 200 万。这——这根本——不是那么回事。你绝对不会因为净资产翻倍就快乐多少。你会有——一种——飘飘然的冲动或者类似的感受,但——为了这个去冒险,你懂的,从头再来,你懂的,失去一切,而你还有孩子——这简直是——疯了。
WARREN BUFFETTI wasn't unhappy when I had $10,000 when I got outta school. I was having a lotta fun. I was looking for things to buy. And the fact that after I spent $10,000 I ran outta money meant that I just kept looking for things that were better than the ones I already had. But-- I was-- if you think that-- if you have $100,000 that means that you're an unhappy person and a million dollars is gonna make you happy, it is not gonna happen. You know, I mean-- then you'll look around and you'll see people with two million. And it-- it just-- it--doesn't work that way. -- you will not be way happier if you double your net worth. You get-- you'll get-- kind of a euphoric surge or something like that, but-- to risk, you know, starting all over again, you know, and losing everything and you've got children and-- it's just-- it's madness.
贝基·奎克沃伦,我们稍后继续聊,回来之后还会快速过一遍观众发来的大量问题。实际上等休息回来,在奥马哈,我们会回答各位整个上午陆续发来的问题,此外还有今天上午的公司新闻,包括通用电气董事会的变动,详细情况马上带来。现在进一段广告,广告前先来看看明天会来我们 Squawk Box 做客的部分嘉宾名单。别走开,我们马上回来。
BECKY QUICKWarren, we're gonna continue this conversation. We'll have a lotta questions from viewers that we'll go through rapid fire when we come back, as well. In fact, when we come back, from-- from Omaha, we'll have your questions that you've been sending in through the morning, plus your morning corporate stories including changes to the board of General Electric. We have the details straight ahead. Right now, though, as we head to a break take a look at some of the names of-- folks who are gonna be joining us tomorrow right here on Squawk Box. Stick around. We will be right back.
乔·科南早上好,欢迎回到 CNBC 的《财经论谈》(Squawk Box),我们在时代广场的纳斯达克市场中心现场直播。今天的要闻放在首位的,就是通用电气正在对其董事会进行改组,也可以这么说。公司新任命了三位董事,包括前财务会计准则委员会(FASB)主席莱斯利·赛德曼(Leslie Seidman),也可能是读作赛德曼。我到底该念什么,等我们好好做点功课把它弄清楚之后,自然会知道。赛德曼,我们就先叫她赛德曼吧。还有前美国航空首席执行官托马斯·霍顿(Thomas Horton),以及前丹纳赫首席执行官劳伦斯·卡尔普(Lawrence Culp)。此外,根据此前已公布的计划,通用电气董事会的总规模将从 18 人缩减至 12 人,这意味着将有多位董事离任,或至少是那些不再寻求连任的。这是名单,其中不少名字大家都很熟悉。你们还记得,像安德里亚·杨、谢莉·拉扎勒斯、吉姆·罗尔、玛丽·夏皮罗、史蒂夫·莫伦科普夫、苏珊·霍克菲尔德、彼得·亨利……很多很多知名人物。首席董事杰克·布伦南(Jack Brennan)将留任以协助过渡,但他不会在 2019 年寻求连任。其他方面,戴姆勒及其中国合作伙伴北汽集团,计划投资近 20 亿美元,在中国改造升级一座工厂,用于生产梅赛德斯-奔驰和高端电动汽车。这一举措的背景是,吉利汽车董事长在上周五披露,已购入戴姆勒 10% 的股份,总价值达 90 亿美元,一举成为戴姆勒的最大股东。吉利是沃尔沃的母公司。另外,国际新闻方面,执政的中国共产党提议取消国家主席习近平的任期限制,我想是所有相关职务的任期限制。但主要适用于习主席,他将可以无限期担任中国领导人。这项提议同样也适用于国家副主席的职位。让我们把画面切回奥马哈的沃伦·巴菲特那边,贝基在现场。另外,我说的那些话会不会让安卓用户觉得……我纯粹是在开玩笑,我碰巧自己用的是 iPhone。安卓用户也是人嘛,我可不想让他们对我有意见。
JOE KERNENGood morning and welcome back to Squawk Box here on CNBC, live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. Among the stories-- front and center, General Electric shuffling its board of directors is one word for it. The company's adding three new directors-- including-- former financial accounting standards board-- chairman, Leslie Seidman or Seidman. We're-- I'm gonna know.I'm gonna know eventually when we actually do something and figure it out. Seidman-- let's call it Seidman. Former American Airlines CEO, Thomas Horton-- former Danaher CEO, Lawrence Culp and as previously announced the overall size of GE's board will be reduced to 12 from 18 which means there are quite a few departures-- or at least directors who won't stand for reelection. There's the list. Many-- are-- you're familiar with. Remember on-- Andrea-- Young and-- Shelly Lazarus, Jim Rohr, Mary Shapiro, Steve Molinkopf-- Susan Hockfield, Peter Henry-- many, many-- well known names. Lead director-- Jack Brennan will stay on to facilitate the transition, but he won't stand for reelection in 2019. Elsewhere, Daimler and its China partner, BAIC, plan to invest nearly-- two billion to modernize a factory in China-- which will build Mercedes Benz and high end electric cars. And that move-- comes after the chairman of China's Geely Auto disclosed Friday he bought a ten percent stake in Daimler, worth nine billion. Makes him Daimler's largest shareholder. Geely is a parent company of Volvo. And in other-- global news, the ruling communist party-- in China has proposed eliminating-- the two-term limit for president-- Xi Jinping-- for all of 'em, I guess. But this mainly applies to President-- Xi, and he will remain leader of China indefinitely. The proposal also covers-- the office of the vice president. Let's get back-- to Omaha and Warren Buffett-- and Becky is there. And I-- I don't-- did-- did I say any th-- did-- should Android users feel like I-- I really-- I was just kidding around about-- I happen to use-- the iPhone. I mean, they're people, too. They're-- I don't want them upset at me.
贝基·奎克你在推特上收到了愤怒的回复?
BECKY QUICKYou're getting angry responses on Twitter?
乔·科南是啊,近视眼和安卓系统,这都行。不过我倒是有个问题想问沃伦——关于三星的,算是给他们打个广告。但我转念一想,“不知道沃伦家里到底有没有平板电视?”你还在用那种方盒子电视吧?你大概有台彩色电视机,是吧,沃伦?但你真的换平板电视了吗?
JOE KERNENYeah. Myopic and Android that's fine. Hey, but I did have a question about Warren for Samsung, to give them a plug. But then I thought, "I wonder if Warren actually has a flat screen." Do you still have one of those boxy TVs? You have a color TV, probably. Right, Warren? But have you actually got a flat screen?
沃伦·巴菲特我有台 85 英寸的。我喜欢在大屏上看体育节目。
WARREN BUFFETTI've got an 85-incher. I like to watch sports on television.
乔·科南看吧?我早就知道。
JOE KERNENSee? I knew.
沃伦·巴菲特而且这事很有意思。我坐得离它很近。有意思的是,在影院里你要坐第一排,观影效果就很差,但你可以坐得离我这块屏幕非常近,我特别喜欢这样。
WARREN BUFFETTAnd it's interesting. And I sit very close to it. It's interesting how in the theater you get a bad result if you sit in the front row, but you can sit very close to this screen of mine and I love it.
乔·科南是三星的吗,沃伦?这个能透露吗?
JOE KERNENIs it a Samsung, Warren? Can you disclose that?
沃伦·巴菲特对,是三星的,没错。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, it is a Samsung, yeah.
乔·科南我的也是。
JOE KERNENMine, too.
沃伦·巴菲特就是三星。
WARREN BUFFETTIt's a Samsung.
乔·科南我很喜欢。所以你看克雷顿大学的比赛,可以凑到这么近看。
JOE KERNENI like it. So you watch Creighton. You watch Creighton from, like, this far away.
沃伦·巴菲特完全没错,完全没错。
WARREN BUFFETTAbsolutely, absolutely.
乔·科南好。
JOE KERNENAll right.
沃伦·巴菲特超级碗我也看了,总之我什么都看。
WARREN BUFFETTAnd I watched the Super Bowl, and I watch everything.
乔·科南奥运会呢?
JOE KERNENOlympics?
沃伦·巴菲特你想想看——对吧——再跟四五十年前比比。我的意思是,这种观看体验简直不可思议。
WARREN BUFFETTJust think of, you know, yeah – and think of what that is compared to 40 or 50 years ago. I mean, the experience is just incredible.
乔·科南确实难以置信。高清画质,太棒了。
JOE KERNENIt's unbelievable. High def. It's fantastic.
沃伦·巴菲特对。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah.
乔·科南行吧,你可以用语音命令它切换到别的东西。比如说,切换到《Squawk Box》,这显然是其中一种最常见的语音指令——或者从我出镜的《Squawk Box》切走——不,我开玩笑的。总之,你继续。
JOE KERNENAnd all right, and you can tell it to – you can verbally tell it to, you know, switch to something else. Switch to "Squawk Box," for example, which is apparently one of the most common verbal instructions – or switch from Squawk Box when I'm – no, I'm kidding. Anyway, go on.
贝基·奎克好的。
BECKY QUICKAll right.
沃伦·巴菲特乔,我在 85 英寸的屏幕上看着你呢。
WARREN BUFFETTI watch you on an 85-inch screen, Joe.
乔·科南天哪。我知道我们给化妆师开的工资不够,这我清楚。
JOE KERNENOh, my God. I know we don't pay our makeup people enough, I know.
贝基·奎克是啊,远远不够。哇。好吧,沃伦,我们想在节目的这个部分,从一些写信、发邮件来的观众那里收集一些问题。很多人读了你的年度股东信,对伯克希尔还有更多问题。第一个问题来自皮尤什·潘特,他问:“您和查理都把绝大部分净资产放在伯克希尔的股票里,这意味着如果情况变糟,你们也会一起承担损失。您能否说明一下,阿吉特·贾恩和格雷格·阿贝尔有多少净资产在伯克希尔,是否有计划提高?”需要说明的是,他们作为董事已披露持股情况。
BECKY QUICKNo, we don't. Wow. All right, Warren, we want to take this part of the show and get some questions from some of the viewers who have been writing in and sending things in, too. A lot of these are people who read your annual letter and have additional questions about Berkshire, too. First one comes from Piyush Pant, who says, "both you and Charlie have the vast majority of your net worth in Berkshire stock which means that you share the pain if things go south. Can you clarify how much of their net worth Ajit and Greg Abel have in Berkshire and are there plans to increase?" Now, they disclose their holdings as directors.
沃伦·巴菲特是的。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah.
贝基·奎克那是针对伯克希尔股票的,但这一点并不能说明他们的净资产情况。
BECKY QUICKIn terms of Berkshire, but that doesn't really tell about their net worth.
沃伦·巴菲特对,我从来没问过他们的净资产是多少。那是他们自己的事。不过阿吉特显然有一笔相当可观的投资。他买的每一股都是在公开市场上自己买的。1986 年的一个星期六,他到我办公室来,那时候我觉得他没什么净资产。他后来就这么一路买着伯克希尔的股票走过来。格雷格在中美能源——也就是现在的伯克希尔能源——待了二十多年,他的净资产几乎百分之百都在伯克希尔。我不确定是不是真到百分之百,因为我不知道他外面还有什么资产,但我可以肯定,他净资产中有极高极高的比例都放在伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源里。顺便说一句,这家公司不发股息,而伯克希尔自己持有它 90% 的股份,所以我们的利益是高度一致的。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, well, I've never asked them about their net worth. That's their business. But Ajit obviously has a very substantial investment. He's bought every share of that in the open market, and he came into my office in 1986 on a Saturday and I don't think he had very much net worth at that time. And he's just bought Berkshire as he's gone along. And Greg has been with MidAmerican Energy, now Berkshire Energy for well over 20 years and his net worth is virtually 100% in Berkshire. I don't know that it's 100% because I don't know what he has outside, but I'm sure it's a very, very high percentage of his net worth is in Berkshire Hathaway Energy. And it pays no dividend, incidentally, and Berkshire itself owns 90% of it, so our interests are very aligned.
贝基·奎克顺便提一句,你们不像很多公司那样发放股票期权。
BECKY QUICKAnd by the way, you don't hand out stock options like a lot of companies do.
沃伦·巴菲特没有。
WARREN BUFFETTNo.
贝基·奎克这些资产都是他们多年来自己逐步积累起来的。
BECKY QUICKThese are sums that they've kind of built up themselves over the years.
沃伦·巴菲特阿吉特的每一股都是在公开市场上买的,你知道的,他跟别人一样自己买入。如果股价跌了,他也跟着赔钱。我是说,我们这里没有单向操作的游戏。我们不授予董事限制性股票或任何类似的东西。我们希望我们的董事能站在股东的立场上。我们也没有董事和高管责任险。我想在纽约证券交易所里,或许还有另外一家公司这么做。如果我们做了特别蠢的事,让他们亏了钱——公司亏了一大笔钱,他们就真的亏了钱,对他们来说是实实在在的真金白银,不是那种别人白送给他们的东西。
WARREN BUFFETTAjit has bought every share of that, come on, you know, in the open market and he buys it just like anybody else. If it goes down, he suffers. I mean, we do not have one way things. We don't grant the directors restricted shares or anything of the sort. We want our directors to stand in the shoes of the shareholders. We don't have directors and officers insurance liability. I think maybe one other company on the New York Stock Exchange does it. If we do something really dumb and they lose – a company loses a lot of money, they lose money and it's real money to them. It isn't just something that was given to them.
贝基·奎克你之前也不知道他们两个各持有多少股份,对吧?在他们披露之前——
BECKY QUICKYou didn't know how much either of them owned before, did you? Before they were—
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我知道格雷格持有多少伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司的股份。但我不清楚他持有多少伯克希尔的股票,我也不知道——我的意思是,我知道阿吉特有持股,但我不清楚具体数额。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, I knew how much Greg owned of Berkshire Hathaway Energy. I had no idea what his holdings were of Berkshire, and I didn't know, I mean, I knew Ajit owned it, but I had no idea what the amount was.
贝基·奎克好。这里还有另一个问题,来自《理性漫步》。提问者写道:“伯克希尔已成为房地产经纪领域的重要参与者,而这个行业仍然饱受高佣金困扰。我最近通过 Redfin 卖了一套房,比传统经纪人省了至少两个百分点的佣金。这对美国房屋服务公司(HomeServices)构成威胁吗?”
BECKY QUICKOkay. Here's another question that comes in. This one's from The Rational Walk. It says, "Berkshire has become a large player in the real estate brokerage, a field that's still plagued by high commissions. I recently sold a home using Redfin and saved at least two percent in commissions relative to traditional brokers. Is this a threat to HomeServices?"
沃伦·巴菲特没错。我觉得这个影响不会太大,不过你也知道,我可能判断错了。但很明显,互联网会试图蚕食过去以传统形式存在的任何生意。买房是大多数人一生中最大的一笔交易。有时候他们是从另一个城市搬来的,希望有人给他们介绍学校,再讲讲整个城市的大致情况——他们搬来的时候确实需要有人帮一把。这是一桩非常私人化的交易。对很多人来说,这甚至是一桩让人提心吊胆的交易,牵涉到很多文书工作什么的。他们真的需要一个自己信得过的人。我有种感觉,十年或二十年后,这仍然会是一桩高度依赖人与人当面打交道的业务。但那些在背后支持互联网平台的人看法不同,而且,亚马逊确实已经证明,很多你觉得必须面对面完成的生意,从几千英里外也能做得很好。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. I don't think it's much but, you know, I could misjudge that. But it's obviously the Internet's going to try and take away any business that existed in a more traditional form in the past. Buying a home is the biggest deal that most people make in their lives. Sometimes they're moving from another city and they want somebody that explains the schools to them, and then, you know, just how the whole city – where they really want a helping hand in coming in. And it's a very personal transaction. It's a scary transaction sometimes to people. A lot of paperwork involved and all that. They really want somebody they trust, and I have a feeling that it will be very much a person to person operation ten or 20 years from now. But the people who are backing an Internet operation think otherwise, and certainly, Amazon has proved that a lot of businesses that you thought had to be done face-to-face can be done very well from thousands of miles away.
贝基·奎克好的。这个问题来自杰夫·沃恩。他问:“沃伦,当你谈到你和投资团队在决定重仓买入比亚迪时的思考过程和讨论时,你们最看中该业务的哪个板块,为什么?”之所以这么问,是因为比亚迪这次又回到了伯克希尔前 15 大持仓的行列。
BECKY QUICKRight. This question comes in from Jeff Vaughn. He says, "Warren, when you talk your about your thought process and discussion that you and the investment team had about taking a large position in BYD, which segment of the business was most attractive and why?" And that comes up because BYD made its way into the top 15 holdings of Berkshire again this time around.
沃伦·巴菲特没错。过去我说过,这真不是我和投资团队的功劳。有一天查理打电话给我说:“咱们必须买比亚迪,管这家公司的那个人比托马斯·爱迪生还厉害。”我说:“那还不够好。”过了一阵他又打来电话,说:“他是爱迪生和比尔·盖茨的结合体。”我说:“嗯,你有点说动我了,但还是不够好。”总之,查理想干这件事。现在结果这么好,我都开始觉得那是我的主意了——记忆正慢慢浮现,我觉得是我说服了查理的。可惜的是,白纸黑字记录那是他的买卖。不过,查理确实钟爱这家公司,公司也做得非常好。管公司的那个人,你知道,做汽车和电池,但他很有大想法,而且执行能力极强。所以,这事还是让查理来说吧。
WARREN BUFFETTRight. Well, I've said in the past it really wasn't me or the investment team. Charlie called me one day and says, "We've got to buy BYD. This guy that runs it is better than Thomas Edison." And I said, "That isn't good enough." And then he called a little later and said, "He's a combination of Edison and Bill Gates." And I said, "Well, you're warming up but it still isn't good enough." Anyway, Charlie wanted to do it. Now, it's worked out so well that I'm actually starting to remember that it was my idea. As it's coming back to me. I think I persuaded Charlie. But unfortunately I'm on the record that it's his deal. But BYD, Charlie's in love with the company, and it's done very well. And the fellow that runs it, you know who's autos and batteries, but he's got big, big ideas and he's very good at executing. So, but I leave it to Charlie.
贝基·奎克还有一个来自大卫·罗尔夫的问题,他问的是精密铸件公司。他问:“自收购完成以来,PCC 的内在价值增加了多少百分比?哪怕是正增长,你能说一下吗?”你曾把 370 亿美元收购 PCC 形容为一次对马克·多尼根个人的独到押注。到目前为止,你对他的表现满意吗?
BECKY QUICKThere's another question that came in from David Rolfe and he's asking about Precision Castparts. He says, "What's the percentage gain in intrinsic value of PCC since the closing of the aacquisition? Can you state it if it's even positive?" You've described the $37 billion PCC acquisition as a singular bet on Mark Donegan. Are you pleased with his performance so far?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我是满意。但它的盈利并没有达到预测水平。不过这是一门周期非常长的生意,他们签下的单子可以一直延伸到 2020 年代中期。马克,我大约两天前刚见过他。他是一位极其出色的企业经营者。我是说,他太喜欢琢磨怎么把东西制造出来了,而且跟我们那位管他专车的人配合得好极了,因为他们都是那种头脑,而且都极为擅长这个。马克从不停止工作,他打造了一家了不起的公司,也将在我们这里继续干下去。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, I am. But it has not earned as much as was in the projections. But that's a very long term business, and the contracts they get can run out in to the mid 2020s. And Mark, I just saw him about two days ago. And he is an extraordinary business operator. I mean, he just loves figuring how to make things and he hits it off terrifically well with our fellow who runs his car. Because they've got that kind of mind, and they're very, very good at it. And Mark never stops working, and he built a sensational company and he will continue that with us.
贝基·奎克好的。最后一个问题,Market Folly 问的是托德和泰德,两位公司内部的投资高手。他问:“巴菲特有没有对托德或泰德的任何一笔投资提出过异议,为什么?”
BECKY QUICKOkay. And finally, Market Folly writes in about the relationship with Todd and Ted, the investment gurus in house. He says, "Has Buffett ever disagreed with any of Todd or Ted's investments, and why?"
沃伦·巴菲特是的,他们自己做决定,100% 独立决策,每个人现在各自管理着 120 亿或 130 亿美元的资金。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, well, they make their own decisions, 100% and they each manage $12 billion or $13 billion now.
贝基·奎克他们当时一开始,每人差不多是 50 亿美元,对吧?
BECKY QUICKIt started as what, about $5 billion each?
沃伦·巴菲特你说什么?
WARREN BUFFETTPardon me?
贝基·奎克他们开始时,每人管着五六十——
BECKY QUICKThey started out with each of them having five to six –
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,他们其实一开始——记得托德比泰德早来大概一年。最早可能也就管了 20 亿美元,后来在不同时点上逐次增加,而且他们也为伯克希尔赚了很多钱,他们管的资金池也就随之增大了。他们确实——做过一些我不会做的事。但我也会做一些他们不会做的事。我是说,我希望他们自己拿主意。选择上——他们很擅长管钱,而且他们有个优势,管的钱比我管的小得多。但他们也有个劣势,管的钱比绝大多数人管的又大得多。我是说,规模变大,难度就上去了。但他们不但钱管得好,我也信得过他们,而且他们在几十个方面都对伯克希尔有所贡献。把他们招进来,是极其出色的决策。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, they started actually, I think when Todd came about a year ahead of Ted. And I think maybe it was $2 billion, but it has increased at various points and then they've earned a lot of money for Berkshire, which builds up for them, too. There's certainly – they've done things I wouldn't have done. But I've done things they wouldn't do, too. I mean, I want them to figure out their own. The choices – they are good at managing money, and they've got the advantage of managing smaller sums than I'm running. But they've got the disadvantage of running quite a bit larger sums than most people run. I mean, it gets more difficult with size. But they not only have done a good job of managing the money and trusted them. But they've contributed to Berkshire in just dozens of ways. They were sensational hires.
贝基·奎克你会事前跟他们讨论这些投资吗?
BECKY QUICKDo you talk about the investments with them ahead a time?
沃伦·巴菲特不会,不会提前讨论。而且他们有不少持仓、有不少投资,我压根没跟他们聊过。我甚至都——我连他们投资组合里四分之三的股票叫什么都说不上来。我也说不上具体金额。我记不那么清楚。但我确实从他们那里得到过一些想法。他们也承担着其他任务。我是说,托德在负责医疗保健的事。他上周六就在那里。我上周六也在。他整天都在跟全国各地的人沟通,物色合适的 CEO 之类的。他们对伯克希尔的贡献极大。
WARREN BUFFETTNo, not ahead a time. And there's a number of them I haven't talked with them at all. I couldn't even – I couldn't name three quarters of their portfolio. I couldn't tell you the amounts. I don't remember that well. But I've gotten ideas from them. But they take on other tasks. I mean, Todd is on the health care situation. He's there on Saturday. I was there on Saturday. He's there all day talking to people around the country in terms of looking for the right CEO and that sort of thing. They are enormous contributors to Berkshire.
贝基·奎克我们稍后马上会多聊聊伯克希尔·哈撒韦、摩根大通和亚马逊那项医疗保健倡议。实际上,沃伦,这是自消息公布以来,我们第一次有机会跟你当面聊这件事。不过我们得等今早稍晚一点。现在,乔,我们把画面交回给你。
BECKY QUICKWe are going to talk more about the health care proposal between Berkshire Hathaway, JPMorgan and Amazon coming up in just a little bit. In fact, Warren, this'll be the first time that we've gotten to talk to you about it since this announcement came up. But we'll do that just a little bit later this morning. In the meantime, Joe, we'll send it back to you.
乔·科南贝基,你可能得让沃伦准备好回答一些我们面临的最紧迫的社会问题。比如,你知道他是喜欢 Taco Bell 还是 Chipotle 的人吗?你问过他吗?
JOE KERNENAnd you might prepare Warren to answer some of the most pressing social issues facing us, Becky. Like, can you – do you know whether he's a Taco Bell or a Chipotle guy? Have you ever asked him?
贝基·奎克我可以猜一下。我不知道。你去过 Taco Bell 还是 Chipotle?
BECKY QUICKI'd have a guess. I don't know. Have you been to Taco Bell or Chipotle?
沃伦·巴菲特哪家都没去过。
WARREN BUFFETTNeither one.
贝基·奎克两家都不去?
BECKY QUICKNeither?
沃伦·巴菲特两家都不去,不去。我去肯德基。我去麦当劳。我去汉堡王。偶尔也去温迪快餐。
WARREN BUFFETTNeither one, no. I go to Kentucky Fried. I go to McDonald's. I go the Burger King. I occasionally go to Wendy's.
乔·科南你这是在回避问题。
JOE KERNENYou're skirting the question, though.
沃伦·巴菲特各地还有各种本地店。
WARREN BUFFETTAnd there's various local ones.
乔·科南回避问题。塔可钟——
JOE KERNENSkirting the question. Taco Bell—
沃伦·巴菲特我?不,我——
WARREN BUFFETTMe? No, I—
乔·科南那个塔可钟的人能把奇波特尔做好,还是会毁了那种天然有机的调调,你知道,那些——你知道,我是说,塔可钟——
JOE KERNENWill the Taco Bell guy be good at Chipotle or will he ruin the natural foo-foo, you know, all the na – you know, I mean, Taco Bell—
贝基·奎克从他的口味偏好判断——我觉得他不是个墨西哥卷饼爱好者。
BECKY QUICKKnowing his inclinations for whether he's – I don't think he's a taco guy.
沃伦·巴菲特等他们开始卖汉堡的时候,我再给你个意见。
WARREN BUFFETTWhen they start serving hamburgers I'll give you an opinion.
贝基·奎克对,我觉得他不是个墨西哥卷饼爱好者。
BECKY QUICKYeah, I don't think he's a taco guy.
乔·科南好了,好了。我只是——这些都是我脑子里惦记的事,眼下的要紧事。我说过,我想让你为这些社会性、事关社会的问题做些准备。大问题。
JOE KERNENAll right, all right. I was just – these are the pressing, you know, these are what's on my mind. As I said, I wanted to prepare you for some of these social, societal questions. The big questions.
沃伦·巴菲特哪家卖可口可乐我就支持哪家。
WARREN BUFFETTI'm for whichever one serves Coca-Cola.
乔·科南那可能就不是塔可钟了,因为,我记得它以前是百事旗下的。总之。接下来的节目中还有更多沃伦·巴菲特的内容。外加《黑豹》周末票房大卖。详情马上回来。《财经早班车》马上回来。
JOE KERNENThat might not be Taco Bell because it used to be Pepsi, I think. Anyway. Coming up, more Warren Buffett. Plus a big weekend for Black Panther at the box office. Details straight ahead. "Squawk Box" coming right back.
乔·科南欢迎回到《财经早班车》。股指期货近期涨幅有所回落——道指期货目前上涨 161 点。早盘涨势一度接近上涨 200 点。不过,纳斯达克指数在此期间实际上又进一步扩大了早盘涨幅。上周五涨了 120 多点。今天盘前交易时段早些时候上涨了大约 25、26、27 点,现在上涨了 33 点。《黑豹》在票房上跻身精英阵营。这部电影上周末在北美收获了 1.08 亿美元,仅是第四部在上映第二周便突破 1 亿美元的电影。其他几部是《星球大战:原力觉醒》、《侏罗纪世界》和《复仇者联盟》。因此,上映 12 天以来,这部电影全球票房已约 7.04 亿美元。我不知道爆米花卖了多少。因为有时候爆米花也一样贵。我周六晚上去看了场电影。我觉得爆米花加大杯饮料比一张电影票还贵,贵不少。不过,根据 comScore 的数据,该片尚未在中国和日本上映。这两个是好莱坞最大的票仓。现在让我们回到奥马哈的贝基那边。我希望我们能——你看,有时候 NBC 转播奥运会或高尔夫比赛时,到了广告时间,我们播放广告,但节目画面仍保留,我们能不能也那样,对你们和沃伦?那样是不是——
JOE KERNENWelcome back to "Squawk Box." The futures have moderated somewhat recently down – now up 161 on the Dow. Almost 200 earlier as far as upward momentum. The Nasdaq though, meanwhile, has actually added to the earlier gains. It was up 120-plus on Friday. And earlier in the premarket session was up about 25, 26, 27. Now up 33. Black Panther joining an elite group at the box office. The movie brought in $108 million in North America over the weekend. And that's just the fourth film to top $100 million in its second week in theaters. The others were Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Jurassic World, and The Avengers. So after 12 days now in theaters the movie has raked in roughly $704 million globally. I don't know how much in popcorn sales. Because sometimes that's as expensive. I went to the movies Saturday night. I think it cost more, popcorn and a large drink cost more than a ticket. Quite a bit more. According to comScore, though, it hasn't yet debuted in China and Japan. Those are two of Hollywood's biggest markets. And let's get back now to Becky, in Omaha. I wish we could – what if we just, you know how when NBC sometimes we go to commercial on the Olympics, or golf or something, and we stay with – we show the commercial, but we stay with the programming? What if we did that with you and Warren? Would that be—
贝基·奎克这样你就能看到广告间隙我们在做什么了?那倒挺好。
BECKY QUICKSo you could see what was happening in between the commercial breaks? That would be good.
乔·科南对,那可能最精彩——那些闲聊什么的。可能是最精彩的部分。所以,你们聊了些什么?
JOE KERNENYeah, that might be some of the best – the conversations and stuff. That might be some of the best. So what'd you guys talk about?
贝基·奎克嗯,我其实正看着这个呢。噢,不是,我刚才只是给他看这个。我一直在笑。你知道的,我一直在盯着新闻线,看他说的话能不能上新闻线。说真的,乔,这条新闻线确实就是在早上 7 点 44 分 48 秒刚出来的。巴菲特说:“没有去过塔可贝尔、奇波雷。更喜欢麦当劳、肯德基、汉堡王、温蒂汉堡。”我没开玩笑。那确实就上了新闻线。
BECKY QUICKWell, I'm actually just looking at this. Well, no, I was just showing him. I was laughing. You know, I've been watching the wires to see what he says makes the wires. And literally, Joe, this honestly just hit the wires at 7:44:48 a.m. Buffet says, "Has not gone to Taco Bell, Chipotle. Prefers McDonald's, KFC, Burger King, Wendy's." I'm not joking. That literally hit the wires.
乔·科南我越来越——
JOE KERNENI'm getting –
贝基·奎克所以我觉得你什么都能说。
BECKY QUICKSo I think you can say anything.
乔·科南没错,85 英寸屏幕——就在几毫秒内,德拉吉网站就打出了“巴菲特力挺股票——或者说,税收计划”的标题。他们登出了这个,我当时还以为这还只是个开头。那条消息几乎也是立刻就上了德拉吉。我再看看《赫芬顿邮报》——
JOE KERNENYeah, 85-inch screen – literally within milliseconds Drudge had "Buffet touts stock – or, tax plan." They had that and I thought it was going to be the least of it. That got on Drudge almost immediately, too. So let me check Huffington Post—
贝基·奎克但这件事远不如刚刚这条消息来得重要。
BECKY QUICKBut it's not nearly as important as this comment that just made the wire.
沃伦·巴菲特你也能活到 87 岁。
WARREN BUFFETTYou too could live to 87.
乔·科南没错,就是。那会出来的。
JOE KERNENYeah, exactly. That'll come out.
贝基·奎克沃伦,你之前说到三星,提到自己买了一台三星 85 英寸电视。你对这家公司了解很多,但你没持有它的股票,对吧?
BECKY QUICKWarren, one thing that you said earlier, you were talking about Samsung. You mentioned you owned the Samsung 85-inch television screen. But you know an awful lot about the company. You don't own the shares, do you?
沃伦·巴菲特我没持有这些股票,伯克希尔目前也没有。但伯克希尔曾经持有过三星。它没有出现在我们的 13F 报告里。我想 13F 只针对国内股票。所以实际上它从未被披露过。
WARREN BUFFETTI don't own them, and Berkshire doesn't own them now. But Berkshire has owned Samsung. It doesn't get reported in our 13F. I think 13Fs just apply to domestics. So it actually hasn't shown up.
贝基·奎克真的吗?
BECKY QUICKReally?
沃伦·巴菲特但我认为我在这点上是对的。我有 99% 的把握。所以,当三星股价大约在 100 万韩元的时候——你得除以 1000 多来换算——我们买入了相当的数量。后来上涨时我们卖出了。现在股价比这还高,涨到了 180 万韩元左右。我猜现在大概在 200 万、230 万或 240 万韩元。人民币汇率对我们也有点有利,所以以美元计价我们赚得更多了一点。不过——
WARREN BUFFETTBut I think I'm right on that. I'm 99% sure. And so we bought some when Samsung was at about a million yuan – you got to divide that by something over 1,000 – we bought a reasonable amount. We did sell it when it went up. It's higher than this now. It went up to 1.8 million, or something. I think it's around 2 million, 2.3 million or 2.4 million. The yuan went in our favor a little bit too. So we did a little bit better in dollars, but –
贝基·奎克我是说,我不觉得你会——过去你好像买过一些韩国股票,那是挺久以前的事了。为什么这时候会关注三星?
BECKY QUICKI mean, I don't think of you as – in the past you have bought some South Korean stocks, I think. That was a while ago. Why were you looking at Samsung at this point?
沃伦·巴菲特那家公司的股票当时非常、非常便宜。他们手里有很多现金,在回购股票方面做得不多,但确实讨论过这事。不过说白了就是股价极低。那是一家规模大、实力强、质地好的公司。
WARREN BUFFETTIt was very, very cheap. They had a lot of cash. They hadn't done much on buying in their stock. But they had talked about it. But it was just very cheap. It's a big, strong, good company.
贝基·奎克对,我记得你多年前买过一家韩国零售商,是吗?
BECKY QUICKYeah, I remember you buying a South Korean retailer, was it, years ago?
沃伦·巴菲特是的。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah.
贝基·奎克也许是好市多或者别的什么?
BECKY QUICKMaybe it was Costco or something?
沃伦·巴菲特我有一段时间,自己买入过很多小公司。
WARREN BUFFETTThere was a time when I bought a whole bunch of little ones personally.
贝基·奎克没错。差不多就是我们那次旅行的时候。
BECKY QUICKRight. Right about the time when we traveled.
沃伦·巴菲特没错,就是这样。我们——韩国市场当时非常便宜。我的意思是,1998 年之后便宜得离谱,那时他们遇到了各种麻烦。韩国市场上有大量便宜可捡。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Exactly. And we – the Korean market was very cheap. I mean, ridiculously cheap after the 1998 – when they had all kinds of troubles. And there were a lot of bargains in Korea.
贝基·奎克你说的“合理金额”,对我来说,这和我自己持仓的数字,跟你的肯定不一样。
BECKY QUICKWhen you say a reasonable amount, I mean, for me, that's a different number for my holdings than it would be for you.
沃伦·巴菲特是的。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah.
贝基·奎克你说的是超过 10 亿美元吗?
BECKY QUICKAre we talking north of a billion dollars?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我们大概赚了好几亿,差不多那个数。
WARREN BUFFETTWell we probably made in the hundreds of millions, someplace.
贝基·奎克那笔交易你就赚了那么多。
BECKY QUICKYou made that much on the transaction.
沃伦·巴菲特对。我记得是这样。大概是 5 亿美元,或者 4 亿美元,具体数字我记不清了。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. That's my memory. It was kind of in $500 million, or $400 million, I don't remember exactly.
贝基·奎克我们来聊聊最近披露的几笔买卖吧。就是最近这些文件和 13F 表格里透露的那些交易信息。根据我们看到的最新文件,你卖掉了更多 IBM 的股票,又买了更多苹果的股票。
BECKY QUICKLet's talk about some of the other purchases that were revealed. Purchases and sales that were revealed in some of these most recent filings and 13Fs. You sold more of your IBM stake and bought more Apple, according to the latest filings that we had seen.
沃伦·巴菲特没错。
WARREN BUFFETTThat's true.
贝基·奎克有一位叫布兰登·卡罗尔的观众提问说,首先,为什么你们——
BECKY QUICKAnd a question came in from Brandon Carroll that said, first of all, why did you—
沃伦·巴菲特好吧,我在 IBM 上确实错了——至少我自己觉得错了。现在回头看,卖出时可能也错了,但买入时肯定错了。我一直觉得苹果拥有非凡的消费特许权。苹果和 IBM 是不同性质的生意。显然,它们都是科技巨头,甚至在有些项目上还搞过合资。但我觉得自己可能更懂消费者行为,而不是科技业务本身——不过话说回来,懂了也不见得有什么了不起。我喜欢苹果,非常喜欢蒂姆·库克。我喜欢他们的经营方针。我亲眼看到那个生态系统的强大,到了令人惊叹的程度。我是说,看看我的孙辈、曾孙辈,还有办公室里每个人,他们的家庭都这样。我在家具城跟人聊天,哪怕预约的时间过了十分钟,也没人会转身去买一部安卓手机。我是说,你从心理上、从精神上,都被牢牢锁定在你正在用的那款产品上了。你所有的东西都在上面。这是一款粘性极强的产品。
WARREN BUFFETTWell I was wrong on – at least I felt I was wrong on IBM. Now, I may have been wrong when I sold it, too. But I certainly was wrong when I bought it. And I've felt that Apple has an extraordinary consumer franchise. Apple's a different kind of business than IBM. They're both tech, obviously, in a major way. And they even have a joint venture, you know, on some things. But I think I understand consumer behavior perhaps better than I do the tech business. It wouldn't take much to beat it. And I liked it, I like Tim Cook very much. I like their policies. I see how strong that ecosystem is. It's to an extraordinary degree. I mean, I look at my grandchildren, my great grandchildren and everybody in the office, I mean, their families. I talk to the people at the Furniture Mart when the ten hadn't arrived, nobody goes over to, you know, buy an Android. I mean, you are very, very, very locked in at least psychologically and mentally, to the product you're using. I mean, you got all kinds of stuff up on there. It's a very sticky product.
贝基·奎克这跟你当初买 IBM 时说的话差不多。那些买了 IBM 的公司,相当于被套牢了。
BECKY QUICKThat was sort of the same thing you said about IBM when you were first buying it. That corporations that had bought into it, they were kind of stuck with it.
沃伦·巴菲特是的。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah.
贝基·奎克那就是他们会用它,因为要脱离那样的系统太难了。
BECKY QUICKThat it would be what they were using because it was too hard to get off of a system like that.
沃伦·巴菲特是的。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah.
贝基·奎克另外,顺便说一句,IBM 最近终于出现了收入增长,这是大约 27 个季度以来的第一次。
BECKY QUICKAnd, by the way, IBM recently just finally showed an increase in revenue for the first time in, like, 27 quarters.
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,但问题是——外汇市场跟着他们走,而当时还推出了一款新硬件。我的意思是,实际上——要不是这两个因素,他们根本不可能有那样的表现。但云计算来了。我在商业领域见过最不寻常的事情之一,就是一家完全不相关的公司——你可以把亚马逊看作那种类型的零售商——进入另一个庞大的行业,看到了这个行业的未来,一头扎进去,然后他们给了——杰夫·贝佐斯也会这么说,他不久前在查理·罗斯的节目上说过——他得到了一个惊人的跑道。我是说,其他玩家——这一行里可全都是智商 200 的人,你知道的——却一年又一年地把机会拱手让给他。他干的事根本不是什么秘密。而且他在一个重要方面正在彻底改变这个行业,其他那些人基本上就是袖手旁观。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, but it was – the foreign exchange went with them, and it was the introduction of a new piece of hardware. I mean, it actually – they weren't up except for those two factors. But the cloud came along. And one of the most extraordinary things I've ever seen in business is when an unrelated type company – a retailer, you can call Amazon of that type, goes into another big industry and sees the future in it, gets into it, and then they gave – and Jeff Bezos would say this, he said it on the Charlie Rose show, some time ago – he got this amazing runway. I mean, the other players – here are all these 200 IQ people, you know, in that business, and they gave him year, after year, after year. It wasn't a secret of what he was doing. And he was, in an important way, revolutionizing the industry, and the other people sat on their hands, basically.
贝基·奎克哇,好吧。我们还有更多问题要问你们,跟刚才聊的那些事有关。不过现在我们把画面切回乔。乔?
BECKY QUICKWow. All right. We have more questions that we're going to ask you, related to some of these things. But right now we're going to send it back to Joe. Joe?
乔·科南等等,等等。贝基,我刚想到一件事。嘿,沃伦?
JOE KERNENHold on. Hold on. I just thought of something, Becky. Hey, Warren?
沃伦·巴菲特是的。
WARREN BUFFETTYep.
乔·科南我一直没搞明白克雷顿怎么会在“大东联盟”。我也弄不太清。第一,它地理位置太靠西了。但咱们就这么说吧——反正它就在那儿。不如这样——我邀请你来。我去搞票。你可以跟我家人一块儿来。你回来一趟,看“大东联盟锦标赛”怎么样?不是“疯狂三月”那个。是在麦迪逊广场花园。时间就在 3 月 7 号到 10 号那周。想不想回来看看?咱们一起看几场球?
<<<END P 7>>>
JOE KERNENI don't understand why Creighton's in the Big East. I don't know. Number one, because it's so far West. But let's just – so it is. Why don't – I'm inviting you. I'll get the tickets. You can come with my family. Why don't you come back for the Big East tournament? Not the March Madness. But at Madison Square Garden. It's coming up the week of March 7th to 10th. You want to come back for that and we'll take in a couple of games?
沃伦·巴菲特这个提议挺诱人的,因为我喜欢看克雷顿大学的篮球赛。但我在减少出行,乔。我会用我那台 85 英寸电视看。你之前还提到了爆米花。
WARREN BUFFETTThat's tempting. Because I like watching Creighton basketball. But I am cutting back on the travel, Joe. I'll watch it on my 85-inch. And you were talking about popcorn earlier.
乔·科南现在你在收缩了。
JOE KERNENNow you're cutting back.
沃伦·巴菲特我自己做爆米花。
WARREN BUFFETTI make my own popcorn.
乔·科南我邀请你去哪儿,你就砍——我邀请你去哪儿,你就缩减差旅。我一开口你就——
JOE KERNENI invite you somewhere and you're cutting – I invite you somewhere and you're cutting back on your travel. The minute I invite you—
沃伦·巴菲特乔——
WARREN BUFFETTJoe—
乔·科南那我就能搞到好座位了。StubHub。
JOE KERNENWell I'll get good seats. StubHub.
沃伦·巴菲特我……我跟你说我要做什么。我给你一个邀请。如果克雷顿大学能打进“疯狂三月”的决赛,我就带你去。怎么样?
WARREN BUFFETTI will – I'll tell you what I'll do. I'm making you an invitation. If Creighton gets to the finals in March Madness, I'll take you. How's that?
乔·科南说得不错。
JOE KERNENThat's pretty good.
沃伦·巴菲特这是个实打实的报价。
WARREN BUFFETTThat's a firm offer.
乔·科南因为我不太相信他们今年不会。
JOE KERNENBecause I'm not convince they won't this year.
沃伦·巴菲特而且我会拿到好座位。
WARREN BUFFETTAnd I'll have good tickets.
乔·科南我不太相信他们——我不知道谁行——
JOE KERNENI'm not convinced they – I don't know who is good—
沃伦·巴菲特不。不。
WARREN BUFFETTNo. No.
乔·科南我是说,有很多——每个人都很强。问题就在这儿。太厉害了。行吧。算了,当我没说。
JOE KERNENI mean, there's a lot of – everybody's great. That's the thing. Amazing. All right. Okay. So forget it. Nevermind.
沃伦·巴菲特我会拿到好座位。但你得到蓝鸟队那边去。我是说,要是我们去,你就得给蓝鸟队加油。就这么定了。
WARREN BUFFETTI'll have good tickets. But you got to be for the Bluejays, though. I mean, if we go, you cheer for the Bluejays. That's the deal.
乔·科南要是对手是泽维尔那可不行。我做不到。要是——
JOE KERNENNot if it's against Xavier. I can't do that. Not if it's—
沃伦·巴菲特好吧,那是例外。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, no. But that will be the exception.
乔·科南行吧,咱们走着瞧。我本来想既然是要去——简直难以置信。麦迪逊广场花园。那个联盟,我是说,你要能在那个联盟赢球,到哪儿都能赢。对吧?就跟东南联盟一样。
JOE KERNENAll right, well we'll see. I just thought because this is going to be – that's unbelievable. Madison Square Garden. That conference, I mean, if you can win in that conference, you can win anywhere. Right? It's like the Southeastern conference.
沃伦·巴菲特谁能想到呢,是啊。你说得对。
WARREN BUFFETTWho would've thought it, yeah. You're right.
乔·科南是啊,我知道。行了,巴菲特,别放在心上。不用回来了。我无所谓。接下来的节目,今早的公司要闻,还有沃伦·巴菲特的更多内容,包括——他现在不太出远门了。要是他叫你到奥马哈来,你怎么说呢,贝基?我是说,沃伦,你让她坐上你一架 NetJets 的飞机不就行了。不管怎样,我们稍后再来听听他对医保的看法。
JOE KERNENYeah, I know. All right, Buffett, forget it. Don't come back. I don't care. Coming up, this morning's corporate headlines. Plus, much more from Warren Buffett, including – he's not traveling as much. What if you said that, Becky? When he tells you to come out to Omaha? I mean get on one of your NetJets, Warren. Anyway, we'll get his take on health care in a moment.
贝基·奎克大家早上好。欢迎回到《财经论剑》特别节目,我们在内布拉斯加州奥马哈进行现场直播。伯克希尔·哈撒韦董事长兼首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特将继续在这里再回答大家一个小时的提问。大家可以继续通过 Twitter 和 Facebook 给我们发送问题,带上话题标签 #AskWarren。今天是 2018 年 2 月 26 日星期一,《财经论剑》第三小时节目马上开始。
BECKY QUICKGood morning, everyone. Welcome back to a special edition of Squawk Box, live from Omaha, Nebraska. We are here with Berkshire Hathaway chairman and CEO Warren Buffett who's gonna be answering your questions for one more hour. Go ahead and keep sending us your questions on Twitter, on Facebook with the hashtag #AskWarren. It is Monday, February 26th, 2018 and the third hour of Squawk Box begins right now.
乔·科南早上好,欢迎回到 CNBC 的《财经论谈》节目,我们正在时代广场的纳斯达克市场现场直播。我是乔·科南,和贝基·奎克一起主持。期货行情方面——上次查看时,它们还在小幅上扬。现在回到 180 点。道琼斯指数上涨 180 点,标普 500 指数上涨不到 13 点,纳斯达克指数强劲,上涨 37 点。国债收益率有所回落。上次查看时,我看到 10 年期国债收益率为 285 个基点。目前看到的仍是 285 个基点。公司新闻方面,通用电气正在对其董事会进行重大调整。该公司增加了三名董事,包括前财务会计准则委员会主席莱斯利·塞德曼、前美国航空首席执行官托马斯·霍顿、前丹纳赫首席执行官劳伦斯·卡尔普,此前已宣布过。通用电气董事会的总人数将从 18 人减少到 12 人。下面是一些不寻求连任的董事名单,包括史蒂夫·莫伦科普夫、谢莉·拉扎勒斯、吉姆·罗尔和玛丽·夏皮罗。首席董事杰克·布伦南也不会连任。他会留任以协助过渡,但将不参加 2019 年的连任选举。现在,让我们回到贝基·奎克和沃伦·巴菲特那里。时间过得真快,已经是 8 点了——交给你了,贝克。
JOE KERNENGood morning and welcome back to Squawk Box here on CNBC, live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. I'm Joe Kernen along with Becky Quick. The futures right now-- they were inching up again last we checked. Now back to 180. Up 180 on the Dow up just under 13 on the S&P, the NASDAQ strong, up 37. Treasury yields have moderated. I saw 285 on the ten year-- last time we checked. See 285 even right now. In corporate news, General Electric making big changes to its boards. The company adding three directors, including former Financial Accounting Standards Board chairman-- Leslie Seidman, former American Airlines CEO Thomas Horton, former Danaher CEO Lawrence Culp, as previously announced. The overall size of GE's board will be reduced to 12 from 18. There is a list of some of the directors who are not-- standing for reelection, which includes Steve Mollenkopf, Shelly Lazarus-- Jim Rohr-- and Mary-- Schapiro. And lead director Jack Brennan-- will also not stand. He will stay on-- to facilitate the transition, but will not stand-- for-- reelection in 2019. Right now, let's get back-- to Becky Quick-- and Warren Buffett. Time is goin' pretty fast. It's already 8:00-- back here, Beck.
贝基·奎克我知道。时间——总是跑得飞快。谢谢你,乔。我们今早的新闻人物是伯克希尔·哈撒韦的董事长兼首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特。沃伦,自从你和杰米·戴蒙、杰夫·贝索斯一同宣布,你们仨将联手成立一家新公司,来试图解决美国持续攀升的医保成本问题之后,我们一直没有机会和你交流。跟我们讲讲这个计划的一点情况,它是怎么走到一起的。你们几位——是怎么把这件事敲定下来的?
BECKY QUICKI know. It-- always flies. Joe, thank you. Our news maker of the morning is Berkshire Hathaway's chairman and CEO, Warren Buffett. And Warren, we have not gotten the chance to speak with you since you made an announcement along with Jamie Dimon and Jeff Bezos about how the three of you are creating a new company to try and tackle the ever-- increasing level of health care costs in America. tell us a little bit about this plan, how this came together. How did-- how did the three of you set this up?
沃伦·巴菲特这个问题问得好。我——我认为——当然,托德和我——我们这边的托德·库姆斯——
WARREN BUFFETTIt's a good question. It--- I think that-- certainly Todd and I-- Todd Combs in our—
贝基·奎克托德·库姆斯。
BECKY QUICKTodd Combs.
沃伦·巴菲特——办公室里——讨论了不少。托德是摩根大通的董事会成员。我觉得他——跟杰米聊过这事。而且——他参与讨论的程度可能比我还深。但我很喜欢解决这个我认为是美国经济核心问题的想法。想想看,医疗成本在 1960 年只占 GDP 的 5%,人均每年 170 美元。现在人均超过 1 万美元,已经逼近 GDP 的 18%,这跟联邦政府一年的税收总额差不多。所以——而且——种种迹象表明它还会一个劲儿地往上涨。你想要最好的医疗,但你会发现其他工业国家,多年前跟我们的水平差不多都在那 5% 左右,现在也涨到了 11% 上下的区间。所以美国企业在医疗成本上背负着巨大的竞争劣势,这远比任何税收调整都要命。如今一年 3.3 万亿美元——每一块钱背后都有利益群体。所以当你试图去动的时候——而且这是个极其复杂的系统。但我确实觉得我们找对了三个合作伙伴。现在——任务就是找对 CEO,这是个极其重要的职位,我们可经不起犯错。那是我们第一桩、也是最重要的事。然后——我们再往下推进。
WARREN BUFFETT--office-- discussed it quite a bit. Todd is on the board of JP Morgan. And I think he-- talked to Jamie about it. And-- he participated probably more in the discussion than I did. But I love the idea of tackling what I regard as the major problem of our economy. I think that you had health care costs go from 5% of GDP in 1960. They were $170 per person annually. And now they're over $10,000. And they're closing in on 18% of GDP, which is as much as the federal government raises in a year. So it's-- and it-- it gives every indication of going up, and up, and up. Now--you want the best health care, but you find that in other industrial countries that were at about our 5% level many years ago, they've gone up into the 11% range or thereabout. So we have got a huge, competitive disadvantage in American businesses far more important than any tax change in-- in terms of our health care costs. And-- $3.3 trillion a year now. That's-- every dollar has a constituency. So when you try to add-- and it's a very complicated system. But I do think we have the right three partners. And-- the job now is to get the right CEO and that's an enormously important job and we can't afford to make a mistake. And-- that is our first and most important order of business. And-- then we go forth.
贝基·奎克你们——几位——并没有——发布太多关于这个计划如何运作的细节,但外界已经有大量猜测——而且——大家都在试图弄明白。实际上,在你们宣布这个消息的那一天,大量医疗保健类股普遍遭受重创,从保险公司到药品福利管理公司无一幸免。而且——这不是第一次有人试图解决医疗成本问题。但这是市场第一次对这类事情做出即时反应,很可能是因为你们三个人加在一起的声望,这点不容小觑。你们的目标是什么?
BECKY QUICKYou-- all have-- -- not put out a lotta details about-- how this is going to work, but there's been an awful lotta conjecture-- and-- people tryin' to figure things out. In fact, on the day that you announced this, there was a huge hit to plenty of health care stocks across the board, from insurers-- to the pharmacy benefit managers. And-- this is not the first time that a group of people has tried to tackle health care costs. But this is the first time that the market has had an instantaneous reaction to something like this, probably in no small amount because of the stature of the three of you combined doing this. what's your goal?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,目标是切实提供更好的医疗服务,同时也要让人们对他们接受的医疗服务感觉更好,因为那也很重要。并且——要找到方法从系统中剔除成本,同时又不损害人们所获得服务的质量。这极其复杂。有太多相互交织的公司和人,不会容易。但我们——你知道,我们有决心,我们有资金,我们会坚持下去。你提到了实际成立一家公司。我们不一定非成立公司不可。我们可能会成立一家公司,很可能也会这么做。但——目前只是共同努力。并且——我们需要有人来领导一个组织。那可能是一个合伙制或其他形式的结构。但——我们的目标其实不只是为了这三家公司。我们的——我们的目标是让其他人也能借鉴。并且最终——能阻止这种持续不断的成本上涨,因为一美元里只有 100 美分。如果医疗保健要花掉 18 美分——我们正在接近这个比例——那就只剩下 82 美分了。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, the goal is to deliver better care in reality and also in terms of how the people feel about the care that they're receiving 'cause that's important too. And— to find ways to take cost outta the system, while not impairing the quality of what people receive. And that's enormously complicated. There're so many intersecting-- companies and people, it's not gonna be easy. But we-- you know, we're determined, we've got the money, we'll stick with it. You mentioned actually forming a company. We haven't necessarily-- we don't necessarily have to form a company. We may form a company, and probably will. But-- -- it's just a joint effort now. And-- we will need somebody to head an organization. And that could be a partnership formed and different things. But-- and our goal is really not just for the three companies. Our-- our goal is something that other people can pick up on. And that when-- end this-- stop this really just constant increase, 'cause there are only 100 cents in the dollar. And if you've got 18 cents, which we're approaching, going to health care, you've only got 82 cents left.
贝基·奎克嗯嗯。你提到这个系统极其复杂。我知道你不是这方面的专家,但你花了大量时间钻研,而跟你一起做这事的其他人——托德、杰米、杰夫,还有他们手下很多人——也是如此。你初步怎么看其中一些事情?因为——如果你寻找利润空间,中间商很多,利润空间也不少。
BECKY QUICKUh-huh. You mentioned that there-- it's a very complicated system. I know you're not an expert on it, but you've spent a lot of time digging through it and so have the other people who are working with this-- Todd, Jamie-- and Jeff and lots of other people involved underneath. What's your early read on some of these things because-- if you look for margins, there are lots of middlemen and lots of margins?
沃伦·巴菲特是啊,不,我觉得我们已经被想管理或想帮忙的人淹没了。彻底淹没了。而且——我——应该强调是帮忙。还有那些想加入的公司,你知道,各种事情。但我们离那一步还远得很。不过——我觉得,单靠谈判能力,在某些方面削掉 3% 或 4% 其实很容易。我们想要的是比那大得多的东西。那——可以是其中一部分。但我们——希望找到办法,至少让医疗支出占 GDP 比重持续上升的趋势停下来。而且,希望我们能找到一条路,既可能提供更好的医疗服务,甚至成本还能更低。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, no, I think we've-- been inundated from people that would like to run this or like to help. Just inundated. And-- I-- should emphasize help. And-- also companies who would like to join, you know, and all of that. But we're not remotely there. But-- it--would be very easy I think to go in and shave off 3% or 4% just by negotiating power, certain things. We're looking for something much bigger than that. That-- can be part of it. But-- we are hoping to figure out a way that the constant increases of percentage of GDP can be at least halted. And hopefully, that we could find a way where perhaps better care could be delivered, even at somewhat lesser cost.
贝基·奎克你觉得私营部门能比政府做得更好吗?
BECKY QUICKYou think the private sector can do it better than the government?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我觉得。通常情况就是这样。而且我认为,在医疗保健领域,很可能也是这样。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, I think. Usually, that's the case. And I think that's probably the case in health care.
贝基·奎克我是说——我明白现在谈这个还为时过早,但人们会关注药品福利管理公司。他们会看着快捷药方公司(Express Scripts)说,每年经手 1000 亿美元的药品,利润率有 9%。这是不是一种轻松砍一刀的地方,还是说我们讨论的范围还要更广?
BECKY QUICKI mean-- I realize again this is early on, but people look at pharmacy benefits managers. They'll look at Express Scripts and say that their margins are 9% on $100 billion in drugs that go through their system every year. Is that, like, an easy way to clip or are we talking--about working even beyond?
沃伦·巴菲特哦,那——那还会更广。广得多。而且——我没法告诉你具体是什么。它们——以各种方式相互影响,这需要一个非常出色的 CEO 付出大量心力,很可能还会犯一些重大错误,花很多时间。你知道,我对花很多时间没兴趣。我都 87 岁了,我想让它继续往前推进。但这并不容易。如果容易,早就有人做成了。这件事非常、非常困难。它——不是——就像我说的,从这儿削掉一点并不难。但它会在别的地方冒出来,需要有一个能从各个角度把握全局的人来审视。医院、医生、病人。我是说——他们是——问题在于,我们能不能想出更好的办法。我满怀希望,但别指望近期会有奇迹。我们——我们有完美的合作伙伴。和杰夫、杰米一起,我是说,我们是能让事情发生的。我们的公司很大,但我们仍然——仍然可以做成事。我们不像——你知道,我们没有那种官僚问题,也没有别人可能有的利益群体问题。而且我们彼此喜欢,彼此信任。所以这一定会合作得非常、非常好。我们力量很强大,但需要——需要一个非常出色的 CEO,而找到那个人,是我们迄今为止最重要的工作。就像我说的,我们已经被候选人淹没了。我们会——我们希望能找到对的人,我也希望能在近期敲定。但我们不会妥协。
WARREN BUFFETTOh, it-- it'd be beyond that. Way beyond that. And-- I can't tell you what. They-- interact in ways that it's gonna take a terrific CEO a lot of commitment, probably some important mistakes, lots of time. You know, I'm not interested in lots of time. At 87, I wanna keep it moving. But it-- ithis is not easy. If it was easy, it've been done. iit's very, very difficult. It-- it isn't-- it-- like I say, it isn't difficult to shave a little bit off here. But it'll pop up someplace else it has to be looked at by somebody who really has a grasp of it from every angle. Hospitals, physicians, patients. I mean-- they're-- and the question is whether we can come up with something better. And I'm hopeful, but don't expect any miracles out of this soon. We-- we've got the perfect partnership. And-- with Jeff and Jamie, I mean, w-- we can make things happen. Our companies are big, yet we can-- we can still make things happen. We're not that-- you know, we don't have the bureaucratic problems or the constituency problems that some others might have. And we like each other and we trust each other. And so that's gonna work very, very well. And it's a lotta muscle but it takes-- it-- is gonna take a terrific CEO, and that's our most important job by far, is finding that person. Like I say, we've been inundated with-- prospects. And we'll-- we wanna come up with the right person and I hope we do it fairly soon. But we're not gonna compromise.
贝基·奎克这是一个我们应该预期——你是否预期一年后这个方案会到位?
BECKY QUICKIs this a plan we should-- expect our-- should-- would you expect to see this-- in place a year from now?
沃伦·巴菲特我预期一年后会有 CEO 就位。但要做的事还很多,贝基,你明白我的意思吗?我想说的是,我们现在谈论的这件事,涉及目前流向各方的 3.3 万亿美元收入,而大多数拿到这 3.3 万亿美元的人——对现状是满意的。我刚才可能说成了“十亿”——但,是那 3.3 万亿,他们满意。尽管他们都会说事情还可以更好——可以做得更好,但不能动自己那一块。
WARREN BUFFETTI would expect to see a CEO in place a year from now. But there will be a lot to do, Becky, I mean, you know? And, I mean, you talk about something that has $3.3 trillion in revenues presently going to people and most people that are on the reception end of the $3.3 trillion are-- are happy with things. I may have said billion, but-- the $3.3 trillion are happy with things. And although they'll all say things could be better but-- done better but not in their particular segment.
贝基·奎克你是说参与收钱的那些人——
BECKY QUICKYou mean the actors involved in receiving—
沃伦·巴菲特哦,那是当然。
WARREN BUFFETTOh, sure.
贝基·奎克……那些正在进账的支票?
BECKY QUICK--the checks that are coming in
沃伦·巴菲特这是一个极其、极其、极其巨大的行业。没错。而且——他们都是好人。我们在美国医疗方面做得不错,虽然我们的人均医生数、人均病床数、人均护士数,都比不上那些医疗支出只占 GDP 11% 左右的国家。所以——但——我们肯定会在一年之内找到一位顶尖的 CEO。我们会给那个人很大的自主权和很多支持。而且——他或她需要这些。
WARREN BUFFETTIt's a huge, huge, huge industry. Yeah. And-- they're good people. And we've done well with medicine here, although we don't have more doctors per capita or more beds per capita or more nurses per capita than these countries that are spending 11% or so. So-- but—it we should have-- a top notch CEO certainly well within a year. And we will give that person a lot of latitude and a lotta support. And-- he or she will need it.
贝基·奎克你知道,早些时候我们谈及如何从国家层面压低医疗成本曲线时,人们总说,“削减要谨慎,因为可能伤及创新进程,伤及我们在医疗前沿探索最佳疗法、新药和新发现所做的努力。”你担心这个吗?
BECKY QUICKYou know, in the past when we've talked about ways to try and bend the cost curve as a nation when we've had this discussion, people always say, "Be careful what you cut back on because you could hurt the innovation process. You could hurt what we are doing to come up with the best health care procedures and pills and-- discoveries in the health care front." Do you worry about that?
沃伦·巴菲特是的。我——我是说——但我觉得你们提到了三家组织,而我们的首席执行官一定会对这一点高度敏感。而且——毫无疑问,我是说,我们的制药公司——我是说,它们创造了奇迹——你知道吧?我自己就吃几片药,你知道吧?它们确实——似乎起了作用。所以——我认为我享受到的医疗服务相当好。所以——我们的体系有很多优点。但这个体系,就其本质而言,是没有成本意识的。我的意思是,如果你是一位——年轻的医学界人士,假设你在研究前列腺癌,这就是我得过的,那么你在心理上、在同行中的回报,一切的一切,都会来自你有所建树,开发出能改善前列腺癌治疗的东西,这也是他们应该做的。但如果你是——要是你降低了前列腺癌的治疗费用,你是不会得到那些回报的。就是——缺乏同样的激励——那些杰出的医学头脑,在很多情况下,更侧重于治疗结果,这是他们该做的。但成本真的没多大影响。你极少读到,在这个庞大的行业中,有谁在成本方面取得了什么突破。所以这个体系自有一套激励机制。而且——在某种程度上是这样。而我们得想出一个办法,在保留好的一面——你知道,又不能——的同时,也要对付我称之为经济体系里一条名副其实的寄生虫的东西。我是说,它在吞噬——从 1960 年人均 170 美元,我们当时还觉得自己在医疗领域做得相当不错——到现在人均超过 10,000 美元。想想看,人均 10,000 美元。一个四口之家,总体上,GDP 里有 40,000 美元要花到他们生活中的这一个方面。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. I m-- mean-- but I think you've got three organizations and I think we will have a CEO that's terribly conscious of that. And-- there's no question, I mean, that our drug companies and-- I mean, they've worked miracles-- you know? I take a few pills, you know? And they did-- they seem to help. So-- I think I receive very good health care. So-- there's a lot good about our system. But the system, by its very nature, is not cost conscious. I mean, if you were-- a young, medical person and let's just say you're working on prostate cancer, which I had, the rewards to you psychologically and with your peers, everything, are going to come if you do something that develops something better for prostate cancer, which they should. But they weren't gonna come to you if you w-- d-- reduce the cost of treating it. There-- just isn't the same motivation as-- -- the outstanding medical minds are functioning, in many cases, much more on the results, which they should be. But the cost really doesn't make much difference. It's very seldom that you read about some breakthrough on cost by anybody in this huge profession. So it's got a different set of incentives. And-- to some degree. And we've gotta figure out a way to keep the good parts-- you know, without-- but also to get at what I've called-- really, truly is a tapeworm on the-- economic system. I mean, it is eating up, instead of $170 per person in 1960, when we actually thought we were doing pretty well in this arena, to-- over $10,000 per person. Just think of that, $10,000 per person. You know, family a four, on balance $40,000 of GDP going to-- just one aspect of their lives.
贝基·奎克马克·吉尔伯特来信提了一个问题,他写道:“你们从一些非常成功的营利性公司中赚了很多钱。那为什么你和亚马逊、摩根大通联手创办的新医疗企业,却被设计成不受营利动机和约束的制约?追求利润难道不是一个好动机吗?”
BECKY QUICKLet me ask a question from Marc Gilbert,who writes in that, "You've made a lot of money from some very successful profit making companies. Why is your new health venture with Amazon and JP Morgan designed to be free from profit making incentives and constraints? Is profit seeking not a good incentive?"
沃伦·巴菲特是啊,这——当然可以成为一个好的动机。我是说,利润动机是很好的激励手段。而且我们这次合作中,很多地方可能也会自然而然地产生利润。我们并没有——如果你仔细读了我们——我们发的声明,我是说,是我们自己不强求利润,但这不代表利润不会产生。我当然希望看到成本降下来,并且在员工身上——因为——你知道,员工承担的成本占了相当大的部分——就我个人而言,在伯克希尔,如果我们——如果我们能找到更好的方案,我希望他们能率先获得降费的好处。这并不是说伯克希尔不该也从中受益,但这——对美国民众来说确实是一项极其沉重的成本。而且最终都落到了员工头上。我是说,公司可能负责开支票,但员工通常也要承担自付部分、共付额之类——的各种费用。所以——这不只是为了改善参与合作的三家公司的利润。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. It-- certainly can be a good incentive. I mean, it's a wonderful incentive. And there may be many places that it happens in this. And-- we didn't-- if you read the-- what we said carefully, I mean, it-- we are free from that as a demand, but that doesn't mean that it can't happen. What I'd love to see, of course, is costs come down and the employees, in terms of-- 'cause there're very-- you know, significant parts of the cost-- you know-- I-- personally, at Berkshire, I'd like to see them get the first reduction if we-- if— we find something better. That isn't to say that Berkshire shouldn't get somethin' too, but-- it's really a huge, huge cost to the American public. And it gets down to the worker. I mean, it's-- the company may write the check, but they often get participation and copays and all-- kinds of things. So-- this goes beyond just trying to improve the bottom line of-- the three companies involved on it.
贝基·奎克嗯,像伯克希尔·哈撒韦、摩根大通和亚马逊这样的公司,我——认为它们覆盖了大约一半的美国家庭。大约一半的美国家庭是通过这类企业获得保险的。所以这可能会产生很大的影响——
BECKY QUICKWell, companies-- like Berkshire Hathaway and JP Morgan and Amazon, make up-- I--think they cover about half of all American households. About half of American households get insurance through companies like this. So it could make a big impact—
沃伦·巴菲特是的,这——这——这——
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, it-- it-- it's—
贝基·奎克——如果人们能从中受益的话。
BECKY QUICK--if people are following from that.
沃伦·巴菲特这算是这个体系在美国演变出来的样子。而且——部分原因在于税法,因为公司可以抵扣这笔支出,而员工从这项特定福利中获得的收益却不被认定为收入。我的意思是,如果公司可以——如果公司承担了你的全部食物开销,你知道,你就需要按所获食物的隐含价值纳税。但在——税法对医疗体系整体架构方式有影响。很多因素都有影响。这就是为什么,你知道,要实现根本性变革会如此困难。但我们对此是下了决心的。
WARREN BUFFETTIt's sort of the way it's developed in this country. And-- and partly, the tax law leads to that because the companies get a deduction and the employee doesn't recognize income on that particular benefit. I mean, if we could-- if the company bought all your food, you know, you would get charged on the implicit value of the food that you were getting. But they-- the tax law has an impact in terms of how-- how the whole system is arranged. Lots of things have an impact. That's why it's gonna be so difficult to, you know, really make fundamental change. But we're committed to it.
贝基·奎克伯克希尔最近在持股、股票持仓中新增了一只股票,就是梯瓦制药(Teva)。有位署名为“交易员马可”的听众提问:“您对投资梯瓦制药的回报预期是怎样的?您有没有什么希望、计划或策略,能推动梯瓦制药融入亚马逊、摩根大通和伯克希尔集团构想的那个更高效、更便宜的医保方案——”
BECKY QUICKOne of the recent additions that Berkshire made to its holdings, to its stock holdings, was the addition of Teva. And there was a question that came in from-- Marco, a guy named Trader Marco, who says, "What are your expectations on return on investment for investment in Teva? Do you have any hopes, plans or strategies to help introduce Teva in the mix of the Amazon, JP Morgan, Berkshire Group's aspirations for a more efficient and cheaper health care plan for all—
沃伦·巴菲特呃,那是我最不可能去想的事。不过——梯瓦制药不是我买的股票,是另外两个人中的一位买的。而且——而且——
WARREN BUFFETTWell, that would be the last thing on my mind. But the-- Teva's not a stock I bought. It's one of the other two. And-- and—
贝基·奎克是托德还是泰德?
BECKY QUICKTodd or Ted?
沃伦·巴菲特——我从来没——从来没跟他们聊过这只股票。
WARREN BUFFETT--I've never-- never talked with them about it.
贝基·奎克所以您完全不知道当初为什么买它?
BECKY QUICKSo you have no idea why you bought it?
沃伦·巴菲特不知道。
WARREN BUFFETTNo.
贝基·奎克伯克希尔为什么买它?
BECKY QUICKWhy Berkshire bought it?
沃伦·巴菲特不不,不是。不知道他们为什么买。而且——他们卖出时也不会告诉我。我是说——
WARREN BUFFETTNo, no. No. And-- they'll sell it without telling me. I mean—
贝基·奎克好的。沃伦,我们——先聊到这里。不过稍作休息后,我们还会继续带来沃伦·巴菲特的更多内容。此外,三星发布了最新款旗舰智能手机,我们马上为您带来详细报道。请别走开。您正在收看的是 CNBC 的《财经论谈》。
BECKY QUICKAll right. Warren, we're gonna leave it there-- right now. But we will have much more from Warren Buffett coming up after this quick break. Plus, Samsung unveiling the latest version of its flagship smartphone. We've got the details straight ahead. Stay tuned. You are watching Squawk Box right here on CNBC.
乔·科南欢迎回到《财经论谈》。我们来看看此刻的期货行情。上周五道琼斯指数上涨 350 点,周五收盘报 25,309 点,今日盘前又涨了 170 点。所以再次逼近 25,500 点。我不太清楚这离历史高点还有多远。不过,你知道,如果之前有过 10% 或 12% 的回调,那我们肯定已经收复了超过一半的失地。标普 500 指数现在涨 11 点,纳斯达克指数盘前涨 35 点。三星昨天在巴塞罗那世界移动通信大会上发布了新款 Galaxy S9 智能手机。这款新旗舰手机外观与去年的 S8 相似,但其新增的摄像头功能提升了弱光拍摄和动态抓拍效果。手机定价为 S9 720 美元,屏幕更大的 S9 Plus 840 美元。两款都将于 3 月 16 日上市。沃伦·巴菲特或许在考虑换一部智能手机——因为我们真不清楚他到底会不会下定决心换掉他那个在海滩上用过的、像戈登·盖柯用的大块头手机。那手机大得像个信箱,或者像台烤面包机。稍后——我们将切回奥马哈,连线贝基·奎克。沃伦·巴菲特正在那里回答《财经论谈》观众的问题。我们先休息一下,看看国债收益率。《财经论谈》马上回来。
JOE KERNENWelcome back-- to Squawk Box. Let's check out the futures right now. This is-- after a 350 point gain in the Dow on Friday. And the-- Dow is now back-- closed Friday at $25,309 and we're indicated up another 170 points-- today. So closing in on-- $25,500-- again. I don't know where that puts us in terms of-- from the highs. But-- you know, if there was a 10%, 12% correction, we've certainly gotten back more than half of that. And the S&P is now up 11 and the NASDAQ indicated up-- 35. Samsung unveiling its new Galaxy S9 smartphone yesterday at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona. The new flagship phone looks similar to last year's S8. It has new camera features that boost low light photography and action shots. The phone's priced at $720 for the S9 and $840 for the larger-- S9 Plus. Both will be available-- on March 16th. And-- Warren Buffett might be in the-- might be in the market for-- a smart phone-- 'cause we really don't know whether he's gonna take the plunge or not from his-- got one of them big, Gordon Gekko-- phones that he had on the beach. Like-- like, the size of a mailbox or like a toaster. Coming up-- we're gonna get back to Becky Quick-- in Omaha, where Warren Buffett is answering questions from Squawk Box viewers as we head to break. Take a look at-- Treasury yields. Squawk Box will be right back.
贝基·奎克欢迎回到《财经论谈》,我们正在内布拉斯加州奥马哈为您带来一期特别节目。今天早上的新闻人物是沃伦·巴菲特,伯克希尔·哈撒韦的董事长兼首席执行官。这个周末,他刚刚发布了一年一度的致股东信。这是他第 53 封致股东信。他也会给各位提问的机会。我们一直在征集问题,沃伦,我这有几个问题想问——来自一直收看和阅读我们内容的观众。埃里克·拉方特来信问:“沃伦,在去年的股东大会上,你说你错过了买入亚马逊的机会。去年 5 月那会儿股价是 935 美元。今天,已经涨到 1500 美元了。你对市场给亚马逊的估值感到完全意外吗?”
BECKY QUICKWelcome back to Squawk Box where we are live from Omaha, Nebraska with a special edition. Our news maker this morning is Warren Buffett, who is Berkshire Hathaway's chairman and CEO. He just put out his annual letter to shareholders this weekend. It's his 53rd annual letter to shareholders. And he's giving you a chance to ask questions too. We've been asking for questions and Warren, I have a couple I'd like to get to-- from people who have been watching and reading in. Eric LaFont writes in, "Warren, at last year's annual meeting, you said you missed out on buying Amazon. The stock was $935 last May. Today, it's $1,500. Are you completely surprised by the market's valuation of Amazon?"
沃伦·巴菲特不,不完全意外。我对杰夫·贝佐斯的管理才能相当赞叹。可以说,我几乎从他创业起就一直钦佩他。而且,我越是观察他,就越对他所取得的成就印象深刻。不过,在靠亚马逊的股票赚钱这件事上,我确实是搞砸了。
WARREN BUFFETTNo, I'm not completely surprised. I'm amazed at the managerial talent of Jeff Bezos. But I've been-- a constant fan, really, almost since he started. And the-- and the more I see him-- the more impressed, you know, I've been with what he's accomplished. But-- I've blown it in terms of-- making any money on it.
贝基·奎克所以你现在还没投?我们不该——
BECKY QUICKSo you're not investing right now? We shouldn't--
沃伦·巴菲特没有。但我也绝不会看空它。
WARREN BUFFETTNo. But--I would never bet against it.
贝基·奎克嗯,好的。接下来,安德烈写了第二个问题。他问:“当初收购北伯灵顿铁路(BNSF)时,铁路行业已经整合到只剩四家,并开始显现出定价权。航空业同样存在类似的整合格局、高进入壁垒、定价权以及相对账面价值偏低的估值,伯克希尔有没有考虑过 100% 收购一家航空公司?”
BECKY QUICKYeah. Yeah. All right, Andre writes in a second question. He- says-- "BNSF, the Burlington Northern, was acquired when the railroad industry had consolidated down to four players and was showing signs of pricing power. Has Berkshire looked at acquiring 100% of an airline, given similar dynamics of consolidation, high barriers, pricing power and low valuations relative to book?"
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,航空业不一样。你知道,人们可以加入进来,组建那种超低成本航空。我的意思是,边疆航空(Frontier)就正在那里,或许正准备上市。所以,你不会一定看到更多那种巨型的干线承运商。但是,你总有办法参与竞争。然而,你却不可能说明天就从奥马哈到芝加哥修一条新铁路,或诸如此类的事。但航空公司可以加开航班——如果你是已有的航空公司之一,或者你或许可以进场拿到登机口,然后开飞。所以,这两个行业背后的经济特征截然不同。另一方面,我也不排除会买下整家航空公司。但这确实是一门不一样的生意。截然不同的生意。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, the airline business is different. You know, people can go in and form-- ultra low cost ones. I mean, Frontier is out there, waiting to-- go public, perhaps. And-- so you've got-- you're not gonna have these huge, huge trunk carriers necessarily more of those. But--you can always compete. But you can't build a new railroad from Omaha to Chicago tomorrow or something of the sort. But you can add a flight-- if you're one of the airlines already there or you can perhaps come in and get in the gate and then fly. So it's-- it's a way different-- set of economics between the two industries. On the other hand, I wouldn't rule out owning an entire airline. But it's a different business. A very different business.
贝基·奎克现在你们持有四大航空公司的股票?
BECKY QUICKRight now, you have four major airlines?
沃伦·巴菲特我们持有——
WARREN BUFFETTWe own—
贝基·奎克美联航、达美——
BECKY QUICKUnited, Delta—
沃伦·巴菲特——大概在 4% 的六点几到九点几之间。我们不会——4% 的。而且我们不会超过 10%——因为我们通常就不喜欢超过 10%。但是——我们确实持有那四只。而且我不会排除——哪怕我们还没做过——但甚至可能买进另一家公司的股票,或者,你知道的,在某个时点调整那个持仓。
WARREN BUFFETT--somewhere between six and a fraction and nine and a fraction percent of four. We won't-- of four. And we won't go over 10%-- 'cause we just generally don't like to go over 10%. But-- we do own those four. And I wouldn't rule out as-- even we d-- haven't done it, but even buying s-- stock in some other one or, you know, changing that position at some point—
贝基·奎克也就是美联航、达美航空、美国航空和西南航空吗?
BECKY QUICKBut it's United, Delta, American and Southwest?
沃伦·巴菲特对。
WARREN BUFFETTRight.
贝基·奎克大航空公司就这四家?
BECKY QUICKThose are the four big ones?
沃伦·巴菲特对,就那几家大的。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, the big ones.
贝基·奎克那你现在对航空公司的喜欢程度,还和当初首次买入时一样吗?
BECKY QUICKAnd you still like the airlines as much as when you first bought it—
沃伦·巴菲特这个行业——总是会有人干出极其愚蠢的竞争行为。而且——过去他们已经干过很多次了。行业里有七家公司的时候,干出这种事的概率比现在几家大公司的时候更高——比只有四家的时候更高。我是说,这个行业几十年来都处于自杀式竞争。我的意思是,它们在运量疯涨的同时,整体却是净亏损。我曾在全美航空的董事会任职,所以我亲眼目睹了这一切是如何发生的。这个行业可能演变成吞噬所有利润的惨烈竞争大战,也可能变成一个比较体面的行业,但仍然面临着众多竞争。而且——确实很难,你懂的,很难确切知道它未来会如何演变。这个——这个行业的竞争绝不是没有风险。在——铁路行业,铁轨基本已经铺好了,诸如此类。所以它已经稳定下来。现在,铁路行业受到监管,这意味你的盈利,你知道,只能——你是一家公共承运人。而且——在很多地方,你要和另一家铁路公司竞争,而在其他地方则不用。在这些情况下,即便是定价方面,适用的规则也不一样。不过,这是一门相当不错的生意。长期来看,它的煤炭运输量会下降,而煤炭是一种重要货源。但其他领域的运量可能会增长。所以说,这是——两种截然不同的物种。
WARREN BUFFETTIt's-- a business that's-- always subject to somebody doing something very dumb competitively. And—-- they've done it a lot in the past. There was more chance of them doing it when there were seven of 'em than the big ones, than-- than four. I mean, the industry was suicidally competitive for decades. I mean, they net lost money-- and-- while they were growing like crazy in units. And I was on the board of U.S. Air so I saw how it all happened. And it can turn into fierce competitive battles that'll wipe out earnings. Or it can be a business that's more decent, but still subject to lots of competition. And-- it's really hard to know, you know, for sure how it will develop. It's-- not risk free in their competition at all. In-- in the railroad business, all the tracks have been pretty much laid and all of that. So that settled into a business. Now, it's regulated and means that your earnings, you know, can only-- you're a common carrier. And-- many places, you compete with another railroad, and other places, you don't. And there're different rules that apply even in terms of pricing in those cases. But it's a perfectly decent business. It will lose volume in coal over time. And that's an important product. But it'll probably gain in other areas. So it's-- it's two different animals.
贝基·奎克还有一个问题。是 T41 号签,各位,一位叫德里克·鲍尔斯的股东写来的。他问:“在伯克希尔·哈撒韦目前持有的股票中,如果有哪一只,”一只,全大写,“你希望能再多买一些,如果美国证券交易委员会允许的话?”我觉得他指的是像美国运通或富国银行这种情况,你们不被允许再买入了。
BECKY QUICKThere's another question. It's T41, guys, it's Derek Borrs who writes in. And he says, "Of the equities that Berkshire Hathaway currently holds, which ONE" one, in all caps, "do you wish you could purchase more of if the SEC allowed it?" I think he's referring to cases like American Express or Wells Fargo, where you're not allowed to buy more.
沃伦·巴菲特是的。我——没法回答这个问题。我不会告诉你我们会买什么。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. I- can't answer that. I'm not gonna tell you what we would buy.
贝基·奎克德里克,恭喜你。
BECKY QUICKDerek, congratulations.
沃伦·巴菲特是的,不是,这个——
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, no, it—
贝基·奎克你可真行,问了——一个他没法回答的问题,干得漂亮。好了各位,我们将稍作休息。回来之后,我们还有更多内容与沃伦·巴菲特聊。我们会谈谈当下的市场估值,以及他对我们最近看到的波动率剧烈震荡的看法。这些内容,还有更多。现在趁着进广告,看一下美国股指期货。整个上午都在上涨。目前道指期货较公允价值高出约 158 点。标普 500 指数期货将高开 11 点,纳斯达克指数期货高开约 35 点。《财经论谈》马上回来。
BECKY QUICKYou managed to get one that-- that he won't answer, so well done on that. All right, folks, we're gonna take-- a quick break. When we come back, we have much more with Warren Buffett. We'll talk about market valuations right now and what he thinks about the huge swings that we've seen in volatility recently. That and much more. Right now though as we head to a break, take a look at the U.S. equity futures. They've been up all morning long. Right now, Dow futures indicated up by about 158 points above fair value. The S&Ps would open up by 11 here and the NASDAQ up by about 35. Squawk Box'll be right back.
乔·科南早上好,欢迎回到《财经论谈》——我们在 CNBC 从时代广场的纳斯达克市场为您现场直播。今天有几只股票值得关注,迪恩食品股价大幅下跌。公司公布了每股收益 0.25 美元,比市场预期低 1 美分。营收也低于预期。公司宣布了整合其制造产能的计划——并表示此举将削减成本。惠普公司的股价今早走高。基于估值水平,摩根大通将其评级从中性上调至增持。该股仅在上周五发布季度报告后——便上涨了 3.5%。好,现在让我们把画面交还给奥马哈的贝基·奎克和沃伦·巴菲特。贝基?
JOE KERNENGood morning and welcome back to Squawk Box-- here on CNBC live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. Couple of stocks to watch today, Dean Foods is down sharply. Company reporting earnings $0.25 a share. That was a penny share of estimates. Revenue also was below estimates. The company announced plans to consolidate its manufacturing capacity in a move-- that it says will cut costs. And shares of HP Inc. are higher this morning. The company has upgraded from neutral to overweight at JP Morgan Chase based on valuation. The stock has jumped 3.5%-- just on Friday after-- following-- the company's quarterly report. All right, now let's get back-- to Becky Quick and Warren Buffett in Omaha. Becky?
贝基·奎克乔,谢谢你。正如——你知道,我们今早的特邀嘉宾是伯克希尔·哈撒韦的董事长兼首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特。沃伦,我们今早聊了很多事情,也简短听了你对市场的看法。但自上次我们坐下来谈之后,市场上发生了很多变化。波动性已大规模卷土重来。这让普通散户投资者开始犹豫,眼下到底该怎么办——这吓坏了很多人。你——你觉得现在波动性回归是怎么回事?是需要担心的事情吗?原因又是什么?
BECKY QUICKJoe, thank you. As we-- you know, our special guest this morning is the chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett. And Warren, we've talked about a lot of things this morning. We got briefly your thoughts on the markets. But there's been a lot that's happened in the markets since the last time we sat down with you. Volatility is back in a big way. And that has the average retail investor kind of questioning what to do at this point. It's-- scared a lotta people. What-- what do you think's happening right now just in terms of the return of volatility? Is it something to be worried about? What's causing it?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,你要是像拥有农场或公寓楼那样持有股票,你不会天天或每周去打听报价——你关注的是生意本身。而美国企业的价值,取决于从现在到最终审判日之间,它能向持有者交付多少现金。如果你把它当生意看,我不觉得它的价值在两个月内能变个 10%。当然,市场里——什么事都可能发生。我是说,市场上什么事都可能发生。这就是为什么我说,永远不要用证券作为抵押品去借钱。市场明天不一定会开门。我是说,什么极端事件都可能发生。所以我认为在某种程度上,有些人们不太懂的、具有巨大杀伤力的工具,可能会让你吃大亏。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, if you own stocks like you'd own a farm or an apartment house, you don't get a quote on those every day or every week – you look at the business. And the value of American business depends on how much it delivers in cash to its holders over between now and judgment day. And I don't think it changes in 10% in a two month period if you're looking at it as a business. Now, you've got – anything can happen in markets. I mean, anything can happen in markets. And that's why I say don't ever borrow money against securities. Markets don't have to open tomorrow. I mean, you can have extraordinary events. So I think to some extent, you can get some of the instruments that people don't understand very well that have a lot of fire power in them.
贝基·奎克就像是波动率指数以及跟它挂钩的那些东西。
BECKY QUICKLike the volatility index and things that are tied to that.
沃伦·巴菲特它们会触发连锁反应——是的。有些人建仓就是在赌博,他们不是在投资。当人们买入某种跟 VIX 指数挂钩的强杠杆产品之类的东西时,没人是在投资。这不是他们需要的东西——它是一种不必要的工具。你知道,华尔街总能创造出公众愿意购买的产品。这一点你大可放心。从 1792 年他们在梧桐树下碰头搞交易所那会儿起,华尔街就一直在干这种事。但如果你是在投资——比方说我买下一半麦当劳摊位的权益,你来经营;或者我买下一个麦当劳加盟店,你来经营——我会通过考察这门生意来判断我是否做了一笔好的投资。我关心的是,我们有没有遇到新的竞争,这些年我们干得怎么样。我看的是生意本身。当你只盯着某样东西的价格时,你就不是在投资。我的意思是,如果你买比特币或某种加密货币之类的,你并非指望这项资产本身能产出什么东西。你买一栋公寓楼,你看的是公寓楼经营得怎么样。你买一个农场,你看农场的产出如何。你买下一整家公司,你看公司经营得怎么样。当你买下一家公司的一部分,凭什么不看看这个生意将来会怎么样?人们被频繁的交易和资产具有流动性等种种表象所迷惑。而这对市场确实会产生反作用。一旦搞出那种挂钩 VIX 的、带有强杠杆特征的 ETN 产品——我是说,一天能让你亏掉 90% 本金的那种——这玩意儿实在不该跟“投资”这个词沾边。我的意思是,它就是一种赌博形式。
WARREN BUFFETTThey can trigger and – yeah. The idea of people taking a position and they're gambling. They're not investing. Nobody's investing when they buy, you know, some super charged index on, you know, how the VIX does or something like that. They don't need it in their – it's an unnecessary instrument. Now, you know, they will create instruments that the public will buy. And you can just count on that. Wall Street's been doing that for – since they met under the buttonwood tree in 1792 or whatever it was on the exchange. But if you're investing, if I'm going to buy a half interest in a McDonald's stand and you're going to run it, or a McDonald's franchise, you're going to run it, I look to the business to determine whether I've made a good investment. And I'm concerned about, you know, whether we have new competition, how we do over the years. But it's the business I look at. When you're just looking at the price of something, you're not investing. I mean, if you buy something, Bitcoin for example, or some cryptocurrency, you're not looking to the asset itself to produce anything. If you buy an apartment house, you're looking at how the apartment house does. You buy a farm, you look how the farm does. If you buy a whole business, you're looking at how the business does. If you buy a part of a business, why shouldn't you look at how the business is going to do. People get charmed by lots of action and the fact that things are liquid and all of that. And it does have repercussions back into the market. When you get something like, you know, ETN arrangement on the, you know, super charged on the VIX, I mean, where you can lose 90% of your money in one day, I mean, that really doesn't belong with the word, "Investment." I mean, it's just a gambling form of activity.
贝基·奎克虽然您自己也说过,在上周末的年报中提到了这一点,甚至在本节目开头也谈到了,当您环顾四周想收购一家企业时,找不到任何有吸引力的价格。然而,在审视股票时,您确实觉得那是个不错的地方。伯克希尔在 2018 年一直以来都是股票的净买家。这是因为您喜欢在市场上能获得的交易机会。
BECKY QUICKAlthough you've said yourself, you talked about this in the annual letter over the weekend, and just even at the top of the show, where when you look around for a business that you want to buy, you can't find any attractive levels. However, when you're looking at equities, you do see that is a good place. That Berkshire has been a net purchaser of equities this year in 2018. And that's because you like the deals that you're getting in the market.
沃伦·巴菲特你可以用低于收购整家公司的价格,买入一家公司的零散股权。
WARREN BUFFETTYou can buy small pieces of businesses for less than you can buy whole pieces of businesses.
贝基·奎克相对于收购整家公司所需支付的溢价。
BECKY QUICKFor the premium you'd have to pay if you were buying the whole thing.
沃伦·巴菲特是的。所以作为一名投资者,与我通过收购整家公司所能获得的价格相比,你得到了便宜的价格。而人们——如果他们能把股票看作企业的一部分,他们的处境会比总盯着那些价格波动的小玩意儿要好得多。我认为在伯克希尔,我们有非同一般数量的股东,他们就是把伯克希尔当成一家企业在看——他们把它当成了一个储蓄账户。他们在 20 年、30 年、40 年前投了一些钱进来,我们帮他们留存利润并进行再投资。伯克希尔就是他们的储蓄账户。我自己看待自己持有的股票也是如此,查理看待他的股票也是如此。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. So you get a bargain as an investor, compared to what I can get in terms of buying the whole business. And people – if they just think of stocks as pieces of business, they'd be so much better off than thinking of those little things that move around in price. And I think with Berkshire, we have an unusual number of people, the shareholders, who just look at Berkshire as a business – they look at it as a savings account. They put some money in 20 or 30 or 40 years ago, we retain it and reinvest for them. But we're their savings account. And that's the way I look at my own stock. That's the way Charlie looks at his stock.
贝基·奎克你多年来一直这么看好股票,部分原因是利率环境。你审视利率水平时曾说,“利率对股价而言就像是万有引力。当利率如此之低时,股价不可避免地会上涨。”最近市场上出现了一种非常奇怪的现象:突然之间,一份不错的就业报告带来的好消息,反而让人们开始担心利率会攀升,担心美联储的加息幅度会超过预期。大家对此感到非常紧张。现在每次看到十年期国债收益率回升至接近 3% 时,你依然能看到这种情绪——这给投资者,或者至少我应该说是交易员,带来了对现状的一些担忧。你是如何看待这一切的?
BECKY QUICKAnd part of the reason that you've been so bullish on equities for many years at this point is the interest rate environment. You've looked at interest rates and said, "Interest rates are gravity on stock prices. And when interest rates are so low, stock prices inevitably are going to climb." There's been this really weird thing that's been happening in the markets. Where all of a sudden, good news that we got from a good jobs report made people start to worry that interest rates were going to climb and that the Fed was going to raise rates more than anticipated. People got really nervous around that. You can still see it every time we get up on the ten year back towards 3%. It gives investors, or at least traders I should say, some concerns about what's happening. How do you kind of gauge all of that?
沃伦·巴菲特贝基,债券——如果你买一只 30 年期国债,它附着一大堆息票。以前纸质的债券确实如此,现在全是电子化了。但它还是有一堆息票,息票上写着 3%,或者别的什么利率。你知道从现在到 30 年后,这就是你每年能拿到的。然后到期他们再把本金还给你。股票是什么?股票是同样的东西。它也有一堆息票,只不过上面实际上没把数字印上去。而你作为投资者的工作,就是把这些数字填上去。如果这些数字是 10%(大多数美国企业对有形净资产的盈利都超过 10%),那这只债券就比一只印着 3% 的债券值钱得多。但如果国债利率升到 10%,它就会改变你实质上在买的这只“股权债券”的价值。你买的是——当你买入通用汽车、伯克希尔·哈撒韦或任何一家公司的权益时,你买到的是随着时间的推移会给你返还现金的东西。对伯克希尔来说,时间可能很长,但金额会更大。那些就是息票。你的工作,作为投资者,是决定你认为这些息票会是多少,因为那就是你买的东西。你买的是折现后的价值。而基准利率越高——基准就是国债——这些其他债券看起来就越没吸引力。这是最基本的经济学常识。所以到了 1982 或 1983 年,长期国债利率达到 15% 的时候,一家净资产收益率 15% 的公司,在那样的环境下,价值不会超过其账面价值,因为你可以买一只 30 年期本息分离的国债,每年稳稳拿到 15% 的复利。而一家净资产收益率只有 12% 的企业,在当时就是资质一般的企业。但今天,一家净资产收益率 12% 的企业,在国债利率只有 3% 的环境下,那就是个相当出色的生意。这就是为什么它们能卖到非常高的价格。
WARREN BUFFETTBecky, a bond, if you buy a 30-year government bond, it has a whole bunch of coupons attached. In the old days it does, now it's all electronic. But it has a whole bunch of coupons. And the coupon says 3%, or whatever it may say. And you know that's what you're going to get between now and 30 years from now. And then they're going to give you the money back. What is a stock? A stock is the same sort of thing. It has a bunch of coupons. It's just they haven't printed the numbers on them yet. And it's your job as an investor to print those numbers on it. If those numbers say 10% and most American businesses earn over 10% on tangible equity. If they say 10%, that bond is worth a hell of a lot more money than a bond that says 3% on it. But if that government bond goes to 10%, it changes the value of this equity bond that, in effect, you're buying. You are buying – when you buy an interest in General Motors or Berkshire Hathaway or anything, you are buying something that, over time, is going to return cash to you. Maybe a long time in terms of Berkshire, but it'll be bigger numbers. And those are the coupons. And it's up to – your job as an investor to decide what you think those coupons will be because that's what you're buying. And you're buying the discounted value. And the higher the yardstick goes, and the yardstick is government bonds, the less attractive these other bonds look. That's just fundamental economics. So in 1982 or '83, when the long government bond got to 15%, a company that was earning 15% on equity was worth no more than book value under those circumstances because you could buy a 30-year strip of bonds and guarantee yourself for 15% a year. And a business that earned 12%, it was a sub-par business then. But a business that earns 12% when the government bond is 3% is one hell of a business now. And that's why they sell for very fancy prices.
贝基·奎克所以 3% 跟你刚才谈到的 15% 可差得远了。
BECKY QUICKSo 3% is a long way from 15% that you were just talking about.
沃伦·巴菲特确实如此。不过我也是一路看着它从 3% 涨到 15% 的。
WARREN BUFFETTAbsolutely. But I watched it go from 3-15% though, too.
贝基·奎克没错。那么在这个过程中,是不是存在某个转折点,让人们觉得,“天哪,利率从 2.4% 涨到 2.9%,这差别可大了。”
BECKY QUICKRight. Is there an inflection point on that way because people think, "Oh my gosh, we've gone from 2.4% to 2.9% and that is a big difference."
沃伦·巴菲特差不了多少。确实没差多少。
WARREN BUFFETTIt isn't much. That's not much.
贝基·奎克从历史的角度来说,我们仍然应该用这种方式来衡量这些事情——
BECKY QUICKHistorically speaking, that's still the way we should be measuring these things –
沃伦·巴菲特没错。
WARREN BUFFETTAbsolutely.
贝基·奎克——而不是看绝对的变动数值,或是看百分比的涨幅变动?
BECKY QUICKNot on the absolute movement or the percentage gain movement over time?
沃伦·巴菲特2.4% 涨到 2.9% 根本不算什么,当你拿它跟那些净资产收益率 12% 并且把利润再投资的企业相比时。标普 500 指数,你只要看几十年的数据就知道,它在有形净资产上的收益率远高于这个水平。而这会转化成比本应达到的更高——高得多的股价。
WARREN BUFFETT2.4-2.9% is nothing if you're comparing it with businesses that earn 12% on equity and reinvest. And the S&P, you can just look at the figures for decades, has earned on tangible equity, it's earned a lot more than that. And it translates into more, higher prices than it should.
贝基·奎克这其中会有一个引爆点,还是一个缓慢变化的过程?
BECKY QUICKIs there a tipping point along the way, or is it a gradual decline in terms of these things?
沃伦·巴菲特没人知道。没错。但这就是地心引力。我是说,如果有人告诉你明年债券利率会到 15%,那现在很多股票我都不想持有。我会去买利率 15% 的国债,我倒希望我 1982 年就买了,但当时没买。
WARREN BUFFETTNobody knows. Yeah. But it is gravity. I mean, if you told me interest rates were going to be 15% next year on bonds, you know, there's a lot of equities I wouldn't want to own now. And I would buy a lot of governments at 15%, and I kind of wish I had in 1982, but I didn't.
贝基·奎克如果我跟你说,明年长期国债的收益率会交易在 4.5% 到 5% 之间,你会——
BECKY QUICKIf I told you that the long bond was going to trade at 4.5-5% next year, what would you –
沃伦·巴菲特那确实有影响。但在过去这些年,持有长期债券简直就是愚蠢行为——你知道的,我在年报里结合我们的情况也谈到了这点——就是彻头彻尾的愚蠢。大型公共养老基金之类的机构,就那么傻坐着持有债券。它们买入时可能还能拿到 4% 或 5% 的收益率。可当收益率降到 3% 时,它们本来能以远高于面值的价格卖出。但人们思考这个问题时,总会做一些非常愚蠢的事情。
WARREN BUFFETTIt makes a difference. But it's been idiotic to own long bonds during the last, you know, I talk about this in the report in terms of our – it's just been idiotic. And big, public pension funds and all that, they sat there and they owned bonds. Now, they may have bought them on a 4% or 5% basis. But if they go to a 3% basis, they're selling way above par. The way people think about it is that they do some very silly things.
贝基·奎克我的意思是,你在年报里把这点掰开揉碎地分析过,但很多投资者——散户投资者——总被告知,应该在投资组合里配一定比例的债券。可能被告知是股票债券六四开,也可能是七三开。这是你应该做的,是安全的做法。他们到底忽略了什么?
BECKY QUICKI mean, you lay this out in the annual report, but a lot of investors are told – retail investors are told, that they should have a certain percent of their portfolio in bonds. Maybe they're told 60/40, maybe they're told 70/30 stocks to bonds. That's something that you should do and that's the safe way of doing. What are they missing?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,有些人根本不该碰股票,因为他们一看到价格波动就慌得不行。要是股价跌了你就因此做出愚蠢的决定,那你压根儿就不该持有股票。不,我的意思是——
WARREN BUFFETTWell, some people should not own stocks at all because they just get too upset with price fluctuations. If you're going to do dumb things because a stock goes down, you shouldn't own a stock at all. No, I mean—
贝基·奎克愚蠢的决定指什么?因为一只股票跌了而卖掉它?
BECKY QUICKWhat are dumb things? Selling a stock because it goes down?
沃伦·巴菲特是啊,就因为股票跌了便卖掉。我的意思是,假设你花 2 万美元买了套房子,第二天有人来跟你说“我出 1.5 万”,你不会因为报价是 1.5 万美元就把房子卖掉。你会去审视这栋房子,或者其他资产也一样。但有些人从情感或心理上确实不适合持有股票。不过我认为,如果能让人明白自己买的到底是什么——买的是企业的一部分——就会有更多人适合。股票持有时间越长,风险越低;而债券的期限越长,风险反而越高。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, selling a stock because it goes down. I mean, you know, if you buy your house at $20,000 and somebody comes along the next day and says, "I'll pay you $15,000," you don't sell it because the quote's $15,000. You look at the house or whatever it may be. But some people are not actually emotionally or psychologically fit to own stocks. But I think more of them would be if you get educated on what you're really buying, which is part of a business. And the longer you hold stocks, the less risky they become, whereas the longer the maturity of a bond, the more risky it becomes.
贝基·奎克你觉得这个道理人们真的能听进去吗?你已经翻来覆去讲了很多遍。我老有这种感觉:我看了不少奥运会比赛,总觉得那些运动员的动作好简单。他们凌空飞跃,在冰上高速旋转、变向。然后我读了你的年报,心想:“哦,投资原来这么容易。”等我把信放下才意识到,其实没那么简单。
BECKY QUICKDo you feel like that's a message that is getting through to people? It's one that you repeat again and again. And I always feel like, I was watching a lot of the Olympics. And I felt like what they do in the Olympics is so easy. These guys sailing through the air and doing massive spins on the ice and turns. And then I read your annual letter and I think, "Oh, it's really easy to invest." And then I walk away and realize it's not that easy.
沃伦·巴菲特对很多人来说,心理上并不容易。但我从 21 岁就开始教书了。我教的第一门课就是投资,上周还给来自 11 所学校、共 220 名学生上了一堂课。有的人能领悟,有的人不能。如今,人们更愿意去赌。我的意思是,“钱放六个月就能翻倍”这种念头,就是——这也就是为什么人们会去赌马、去拉斯维加斯。你明白的,不管是什么名目。他们甚至知道赔率对自己不利,却还是照做不误。想快速致富的本能相当强烈,而我也不知道该怎么做到。
WARREN BUFFETTIt's not easy psychologically for many people. But I've been teaching since I was 21. I taught my first class on investments, and I had a class last week with 11 schools, 220 students. And some of them get it and some of them don't. Now, people would rather gamble. I mean, the idea that you can double your money in six months, that's just going to – it's why people go to the races, why they go to Vegas. You know, whatever it may be. They even know the odds are against them. And they still do it. I mean, it's a strong instinct to want to get rich fast. And I don't know how to do it.
贝基·奎克乔也有个问题想问。乔?
BECKY QUICKJoe has a question that he'd like to ask too. Joe?
乔·科南巴菲特,老兄,你从 2016 年 4 月起就没发过推特,是不是真的?
JOE KERNENBuffett, you haven't tweeted since April of 2016, man. Is that true?
沃伦·巴菲特其实那条也不是我发的。有个朋友替我发过大概七次。
WARREN BUFFETTI didn't really tweet that. I've got a friend that's tweeted about seven times for me.
乔·科南你没有关注者,也没有关注任何人。你看,我来——让我来弄一下,沃伦。
JOE KERNENYou've got no follow, you follow nobody, you know, let me – here, let me—Warren.
沃伦·巴菲特不——
WARREN BUFFETTNo—
乔·科南沃伦,你今天早上要来《财经论谈》(Squawk Box)上三个小时节目。你就说一句“我要上《财经论谈》三小时”,然后发条推文,就当帮贝基和我一个忙,这会要你的命吗?我是说——
JOE KERNENWarren, you are coming on "Squawk Box" this morning for three hours. It would kill you to say, "I'm going to be on 'Squawk Box' for three hours" and tweet that out as a favor to Becky and me? I mean—
沃伦·巴菲特你开个价吧。我确实从来没自己发过推文,也不知道具体怎么操作。你知道,我也不懂怎么去翻看别人发的推文。但我还是——
WARREN BUFFETTMake me an offer. I have never actually tweeted myself. And I don't really know how to do it. You know, and I don't know how to look up somebody else's tweets. But I'd still—
乔·科南你会看看——你会不会研究一下这个——
JOE KERNENWill you look at—will you look into it maybe –
沃伦·巴菲特我还是会觉得,我已经过了相当满意的一生了。
WARREN BUFFETTI'd still feel I've led I've led a satisfactory life.
乔·科南你知道吗?沃伦,我跟你说。贝基,周末的时候我一直在想,这种事搞得我烦不胜烦,我又不是真的需要看这些东西,你明白吗?不是别人给我发消息那种,而是现在,光是看别人在推特上发的东西——
JOE KERNENYou know what? I'm going to tell you something, Warren. Becky, over the weekend, I was trying to figure out, I mean I get so irritated, that I don't need it, you know? Not from people sending, but now, from looking at what other people are tweeting –
贝基·奎克推特?
BECKY QUICKTwitter?
乔·科南还有转发,都会让我烦躁。我在琢磨有没有办法,既能时不时收到一些有用的信息,又不用自己掺和进去。你有办法吗?但那样我还是得关注这些烦人的家伙。我不知道——
JOE KERNENAnd retweeting, I get irritated. And I'm trying to figure out a way to still get the info that sometimes I get, but just without me being actually part of it. Have you got a way I can do it? But then I'd still be following these annoying people. I don't know—
贝基·奎克脑叶切除术?
BECKY QUICKLobotomy?
沃伦·巴菲特乔,要是咱们能一起去看 NCAA 的决赛,坐到我给你弄的那些绝佳座位上,前提是克雷顿大学打进了决赛——
WARREN BUFFETTJoe, if we go to the final game, if we go to the finals of the NCAA and we're there together in these great seats I'm going to deliver for you because Creighton's in it—
乔·科南那我可就盼着克雷顿大学赢了。
JOE KERNENI'm going to hope for Creighton.
沃伦·巴菲特到时候比赛期间你就替我发推文。
WARREN BUFFETTI will have you tweet for me during the game.
贝基·奎克哦,沃伦,答应这种事可得小心点。
BECKY QUICKOh, be careful what you offer, Warren.
沃伦·巴菲特我是说,你可以——
WARREN BUFFETTI mean, you could—
贝基·奎克乔,这样你是不是连城堡的钥匙都想要了?
BECKY QUICKJoe, how would you like the keys to the castle with that?
沃伦·巴菲特你就是专属推文官——
WARREN BUFFETTYou'll be the designated tweeter—
乔·科南我的天,这事可太多了——
JOE KERNENGod, there's a lot—
沃伦·巴菲特但我从没看过一条推文。我是说——
WARREN BUFFETTBut I've never read a tweet. I mean—
乔·科南你知道吗?我现在就把克雷顿和泽维尔直接带进——我现在是真的要给他们加油了,你知道,不过——
JOE KERNENYou know what? I'm taking Creighton and Xavier right to the – now I'm really going to be rooting, you know, but—
沃伦·巴菲特我就喜欢这样。
WARREN BUFFETTI love it.
乔·科南贝基——
JOE KERNENBecky –
沃伦·巴菲特这样正合我意。
WARREN BUFFETTI love it.
乔·科南我今天解封了一个人,因为他通过邮件来请求我。我以前从没这么做过——还得自己琢磨怎么操作。
JOE KERNENI unblocked someone today that appealed to me through email. And I've never done – I had to figure out how to do it.
贝基·奎克哇。
BECKY QUICKWow.
乔·科南不过只是试用期状态,由董事会酌情决定,或者说由董事会定夺。这我以前是从来没干过的。
JOE KERNENBut it's on a probationary basis, at the board of discretion or at the discretion of the board. But I've never done that before.
贝基·奎克由董事会自行决定。
BECKY QUICKThe discretion of the board.
乔·科南是,但有人又回来了。所以,你要是来,沃伦,就能干这种事。
JOE KERNENYeah, but someone got back in. So, you get to do things like that if you come on, Warren.
贝基·奎克沃伦,什么——
BECKY QUICKWarren, what—
沃伦·巴菲特我更愿意读 10-K 报表。
WARREN BUFFETTI'd rather read 10Ks.
贝基·奎克对,但你不知道你刚才那个提议有多危险,因为乔和我在私下开玩笑时说过,要是有人把 Twitter 账号登录后留在屏幕上没退出,我们坐上去就能拿到。你能发出去的推文。你能跟别人说的话。
BECKY QUICKRight, but you don't realize how dangerous that offer is you just made because Joe and I have joked around about getting a hold of somebody's Twitter account or their information when they leave it logged onto a screen that we sit down at. The things that you can tweet out. Or the things that you can say to people.
乔·科南太危险了。太危险了。
JOE KERNENSo dangerous. So dangerous.
贝基·奎克当你假扮成别人的时候。
BECKY QUICKWhen you're masquerading as someone else.
沃伦·巴菲特这个嘛,有人在 Facebook 和 Twitter 上冒充过我,我是说——
WARREN BUFFETTWell, people have pretended to be me on both Facebook and Twitter, I mean—
贝基·奎克你们有没有追查过那些……的人?
BECKY QUICKHave you guys gone after the people who—
沃伦·巴菲特我们确实搞过一段时间。但数量实在太多了,基本没什么希望。
WARREN BUFFETTWe did it for a while. There's just so many of them it's kind of hopeless.
贝基·奎克每消灭一个,就又冒出来八个?
BECKY QUICKEvery time you stamp one out, eight more pop up?
沃伦·巴菲特对,完全没错。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, exactly. Exactly.
贝基·奎克好的。今天上午我们还会从沃伦·巴菲特那里听到更多内容。不过现在,在我们进入广告休息时间之前,先来看看伯克希尔·哈撒韦持股的四家航空公司的股价。我们刚才一直在谈论这些,以及巴菲特先生为什么喜欢这些股票。在讨论了一些相关话题之后,这几只股票已经有所上涨。达美航空上涨近 1.2%。巴菲特告诉我们,他不排除完全拥有一家航空公司的可能性,不过他也说,目前这还不在考虑范围内。我们马上回来。
BECKY QUICKAll right. We will have much more from Warren Buffett still to come this morning. Right now though, as we head to a break, take a look at shares of the four airlines in which Berkshire Hathaway has a stake. We were just talking about all of this and why Mr. Buffett likes these stocks. After talking about some of these things, some of those stocks have popped. Delta's up by almost 1.2%. Buffett told us he wouldn't rule out owning an airline outright, although he says that's not in the cards at this point. We will be right back.
乔·科南欢迎回到《财经论谈》。先来看看股指期货。看起来——现在大概 180 点,道琼斯指数盘前涨了 177 点左右。标普 500 指数期货涨了大约 14 点。纳斯达克指数期货涨了约 37 点。上次——我们看十年期国债收益率,现在已经低于 2.85 了。现在是——2.84。所以——这似乎——对我们看到的股市上涨——有正向作用。现在,我们把画面切回——奥马哈的贝基·奎克——和沃伦·巴菲特。还在琢磨那个——那条推文——提议,贝基。那可不小。真不小。说到这,就像——
JOE KERNENWelcome back to "Squawk Box." Let's check out the futures. Look like-- about 180 right now, 177 in terms of the Dow Jones trading higher pre-market. The-- S&P indicated up about 14. The NASDAQ indicated up about 37. Last time-- we looked at the ten year, it was actually below 2.85 now. It was at-- 2.84. So that-- has seemed like it's-- sort of-- been positive for the move that we're seeing in equities. Right now, let's get back-- to Becky Quick-- and Warren Buffett-- in Omaha. Still thinkin' about that-- that twit-- tweet offer-- Becky. That's big. That is big. In terms, like I-
沃伦·巴菲特可不小。确实不小——
WARREN BUFFETTIt's big. It's big--
乔·科南我得发多少条推文才行——
JOE KERNENHow many tweets would I be--
贝基·奎克还记得那次我们差点接管戴维的账号吗?我们差点——还记得吧——
BECKY QUICKRemember when we almost took over David's? We almost-- remember--
乔·科南戴维·法伯。
JOE KERNENDavid Faber.
贝基·奎克——你和我走上去,戴维·法伯的账号还登着没退。我们差点——
BECKY QUICK--you and I walked up and David Faber had been left on. And we almost--
乔·科南我吓坏了。
JOE KERNENI got so scared.
贝基·奎克——接管了他的账户。我们及时收了手——
BECKY QUICK--took over his account. We stopped--
乔·科南不,我是吓——
JOE KERNENNo, I got--
贝基·奎克——管住了自己?
BECKY QUICK--ourselves?
乔·科南——吓坏了,一想到我能发出去的那些东西,那——那——你知道,那——然后我大概就会被炒鱿鱼。他——首先,他会看起来像是——你知道,然后我紧张得不得了,就把那页面登出系统了。我不想——我甚至不想让那页面留在那里,因为它太危险了——用那——
JOE KERNEN--so scared, thinking about the things that I could send out, that-- that-- you know, that-- and then I'd get fired, probably. He-- first, he'd look like he w-- you know, and then I got so nervous about it, I logged it out. I didn't want-- I didn't even want it there 'cause it's so dangerous-- with the--
贝基·奎克法伯压根不知道——
BECKY QUICKFaber doesn't even know--
乔·科南——思想警察——
JOE KERNEN--the thought police--
贝基·奎克——我们差点就干出来了。
BECKY QUICK--we almost did that.
乔·科南推特上那些“思想警察”,就像——你可能不小心转推了什么东西。如果那东西来自某个疯子之类的,那——突然之间,你——你知道,你就跟着沾上污点了。整件事很危险——整件事让我神经紧绷,贝基。就是让我神经紧绷,你懂我意思吧?就——最好别沾这玩意儿,你知道吗?而且你千万——沃伦——
JOE KERNENThe thought police that are on Twitter are, like-- you can retweet something inadvertently. And if it comes from some, like, crazy or something, then it-- suddenly, you're-- you know, you're tarnished with it. The whole thing is dangerous-- the whole thing makes me nervous, Becky. It just does, you know what I mean? It j-- it's just better to not do it, you know? And you definitely-- Warren--
贝基·奎克同意。
BECKY QUICKAgree.
乔·科南——永远别 TWI。永远别酒后发推。那是直接可以开除的理由——
JOE KERNEN--don't ever TWI. You don't ever tweet while intoxicated. That is immediately grounds--
贝基·奎克哦,他不喝酒。
BECKY QUICKOh, he doesn't drink.
乔·科南TWI。
JOE KERNENTWI.
贝基·奎克他不喝酒。
BECKY QUICKHe doesn't drink.
乔·科南你可以弄个 TWI。别那么干。
JOE KERNENYou can get a TWI. Don't do that.
贝基·奎克对,对。好吧。那咱们——稍微转个弯,跟沃伦·巴菲特聊点别的话题。
BECKY QUICKRight, right. Okay. Well, let's-- make a little bit of a turn here and get into another discussion with Warren Buffett.
沃伦·巴菲特对,咱就趁上头的时候聊,没错。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, let's talk while intoxicated, yeah.
贝基·奎克没错。光是咖啡和可乐——可口可乐,我该说这个——就够我们惹上不少麻烦了。沃伦,我们稍微聊聊贸易政策——还有——华盛顿那边的情况。今天有些新闻——说彼得·纳瓦罗将被提升为特朗普总统的特别顾问。很多人对此议论纷纷,因为彼得·纳瓦罗这个人——对——自由贸易——有一些——相当强硬的想法——他觉得自由贸易的问题出在哪。他提出观点说——贸易逆差——本质上就是坏事。你同意吗?
BECKY QUICKRight. We get ourselves in enough trouble with things just with the coffee and the Coke-- Coca Cola, I should say. Warren, let's talk a little bit about trade policies-- and-- what's happened in Washington. There-- there's some news out today-- that Peter Navarro is going to be elevated as a special counselor to President Trump. And people have made-- a lot of this because Peter Navarro is somebody who-- has-- some--pretty strong ideas-- about-- free trade and where he thinks the problems are with free trade. He's made the argument that-- having a trade deficit is a bad thing, inherently. Do you agree with that?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我——其实几年前写过一篇相关的文章。不幸的是,我认为贸易逆差占 GDP 的比重非常大的话,意味着你在把财富或对财富的索取权转移到国外。你知道吗?我觉得——大概十二年前,这个比重就已经过大了。我完全不喜欢贸易逆差占 GDP 很大比重这种局面。你可以说,你是在糊弄外国人,因为你只是递给他们一些纸片,他们却拼命干活,做内衣、做鞋,什么都要运给你。那干嘛不给他们这些纸片呢?反正早晚会被通胀贬掉。但我不喜欢大的贸易逆差。另一方面——从长期看,贸易给美国和世界带来了巨大的好处。这并不意味着没有倾销之类的问题存在。但是,一个贸易量比现在更大——相对于 10 年或 20 年后的全球经济总量而言——的世界,会比贸易量更少的世界更好。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, I-- -- actually wrote an article about it some years ago. Unfortunately, I think having very large trade deficits as a percentage your GDP manage-- means you're transferring wealth abroad to other countries or claims on wealth, you know? And-- I thought we were-- that was excessive a dozen years ago or so. I don't like the idea of running huge trade deficits as a percentage of GDP at all. You can say you're fooling foreigners 'cause you're just handing 'em little pieces of paper and they're working hard, making underwear and shoes and everything to ship to you. And why not give them little pieces of paper which are gonna get inflated away at some point? But I don't like large trade deficits. On the other hand-- trade has benefited us and the world enormously over time. And it doesn't mean that there can't be abuses in it in terms of dumping and things of that sort. But a world that-- that has more trade in it, relative to the total world economy ten or 20 years from now, will be a better world than one with lesser trade.
贝基·奎克您认为我们目前——在处理这些贸易协议方面处于什么位置?因为很多人——认为特朗普总统上任后会发生的事情,并没有实现。我们还没有退出 NAFTA。我们还没有在给中国贴上——操纵汇率标签方面——采取一些更严格的措施,或者——那些一开始就被威胁要做的强硬事情。您是否担心——关闭边境?如果真的发生,对伯克希尔意味着什么?
BECKY QUICKWhere do you think we stand-- in terms of how we've approached these trade deals? Because a lot of the things that people-- thought would happen as soon as President Trump took office, haven't come to fruition. We haven't gotten out of NAFTA yet. We haven't done some of the more restrictive things in terms of labeling-- the Chinese-- manipulators or-- some of the heavy duty things that were kind of threatened at the start.do you worry-- about closing borders? What would it mean for Berkshire if that happened?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我不——我不认为关闭边界是个好主意。而且我也不认为在——
WARREN BUFFETTWell, I don't-- I don't think closing borders is a good idea. And I don't think in--
贝基·奎克不是说我们讨论过要这么做,但如果我们真要退出《北美自由贸易协定》,那就来看一看某些——
BECKY QUICKNot that we've talked about doing that, but if we were to get outta NAFTA, let's look at some of the--
沃伦·巴菲特我认为从长远来看,我们希望贸易更多——并且越接近贸易平衡就越好。我的意思是,理想情况下,每个人的总贸易额都应该是平衡的,但显然不可能那样运作。但——我们可以接受小幅度的失衡,长期来看没问题。而且我认为总的来说,你应当鼓励贸易。我们——我们会过得更好。如果我们——如果我们开始说我们要在美国自己种香蕉——我们在糖这件事上就已经这样做了。我的意思是,就糖而言,我们在这个国家给了它疯狂补贴。你知道,但事实是,我们——我们并不是最适合种糖的地方。如果你开始——如果你开始排除这个、排除那个,你的经济就会出现人为的扭曲。但我们应当大体上支持贸易,同时避免做相当愚蠢的事——也就是把排斥贸易当作指导原则。
WARREN BUFFETTI--think over time, we want more trade-- and the closer it is to balanced trade, the better. I mean, maybe ideal, e-- everybody would have the total trade balance, but it isn't gonna work that way, obviously. But-- we can take small imbalances, fine over time. And I- think on balance, you wanna encourage trade. Our--we will live better off. If we-- if we start saying we're gonna grow our own bananas in the United States-- we've said that with sugar. I mean, with sugar, we've subsidized it like crazy in this country. Been-- you know, and the truth is, we're-- we aren't the best natural place to grow sugar. And you get artificialities in your economy if you start-- if you start ruling out this and ruling in that. But it's-- we oughta be generally pro-trade, but we should avoid gettin'-- doing something really stupid, -- which is that as a guiding principle.
贝基·奎克商务部就铝和钢材的一些反倾销条款提出了处理建议。白宫现在还有些时间来做出决定。你怎么看这件事?这会不会影响到你参与的那些生意?
BECKY QUICKThere's been-- an issue that the Commerce Department has made recommendations in terms of what to do on both aluminum and steel with some of these dumping provisions. The White House has some time now to make up its mind on going down this. Do you have any thoughts on that? Does that play into any of the businesses-- that you're involved in?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯——我想说,贸易并没有对我们产生巨大影响。显然,你知道,50 年前——我们当时还没拥有这家公司,但——公司生产内衣,你知道,那——当时它雇用的国内工人在百分比上比现在——要——更多。
WARREN BUFFETTWell-- I would say we have not been enormously affected by trade. Obviously, you know, 50 years ago the-- we didn't own it then, but the-- company made underwear, you know, that-- -- it was using more domestic workers percentage wise than it-- it does-now-
贝基·奎克伯克希尔·哈撒韦,原来的——
BECKY QUICKBerkshire Hathaway, the original--
沃伦·巴菲特对,当然。我们——呃——我们——Fruit of the Loom。它以前叫 Union Underwear。我是说,我们最初是做纺织的。我们的竞争对手一部分在美国,但后来也来自国外。在鞋业这块,我们被重创了——因为我们买的那家公司——原因在于——我们拥有全世界最优秀的工人,诸如此类。但——更便宜的鞋从国外涌进来。美国曾经自己生产很大比例的鞋。现在可能——一双都不生产了。所以——这会对行业产生巨大影响。但总体而言,我们希望朝着增加贸易的方向努力。同时,我们也想找出好办法去照顾那些——因为自由贸易的影响而失业、年龄 55 岁、又无法接受再培训转行的人。自由贸易的好处会散布到全体人口中——但特定行业的从业者确实会沦为“路上的死尸”。我们应当照顾这些人,因为——我们牺牲他们的人生——或者说经济生命——来换取更大的利益。应当有政策来照顾他们。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, of course. Yeah, we d-- yeah-- Fruit of the Loom. It used to be called Union Underwear. I mean, they're-- we originally were in textiles. And-- and our competition was partly in the United States, but then it became outside the company as well. In shoes, we got decimated-- with the company we bought because of-- the fact that-- that we had the best workers in the world and all that. But-- shoes came in cheaper from abroad. The United States used to make a very high percentage of its own shoes. It makes probably w-- none now. So it-- can have huge affect on industry. But overall, we wanna work toward having more trade. And we also wanna figure out a good way of taking care of the people that are-- that lose their jobs and are 55 and can't really be retrained for other things because of the effects of having free trade. We-- the benefits of free trade get spread throughout the population and-- the roadkill are real in terms of the people in given industries. And we should take care of those people because-- we're sacrificing their lives for the g-- or economic lives, for the greater good. And there oughta be policies that take care of them.
贝基·奎克上周在《财经论谈》节目里——有客座主持和我们一起——待了几个小时,克里斯·休斯,他是 Facebook 的联合创始人之一。他当时在现场。他碰巧是马克·扎克伯格的——大学室友——
BECKY QUICKLast week on Squawk Box-- we had a guest host join us-- for a couple of hours, Chris Hughes, who is one of the founders of Facebook. He was there. He happened to be Mark Zuckerberg's-- roommate in college--
沃伦·巴菲特他做了个明智的决定。
WARREN BUFFETTHe made a good decision.
贝基·奎克他确实在 Facebook 工作了大约三年,公司上市时他因此赚了大约 5 亿美元。他加入我们是基于他正在推进的一项新计划,旨在解决你刚刚描述的那个问题。他的想法是推出一个项目——这不是全民基本收入,无论什么情况每个人都发 1000 美元——而是针对任何有工作的人,他认为这些人每月应该能拿到大约 500 美元。只要他们在工作,就能确保他们的收入不低于贫困线。你对此怎么看?因为你之前也谈到过劳动所得税抵免。
BECKY QUICKHe did. He spent about three years working for Facebook and, in turn, made about half a billion dollars when the company went public. He joined us because of a new initiative that he's been working on to try and deal with the problem that you just-described. His thought is to have a program where it-- it's not a universal basic income, where everybody gets $1,000 no matter what, it's anybody who is working, he thinks, should be making about $500-- on a monthly basis. Just to make sure that they're not falling below the poverty line as long as they are working. What are your thoughts on this, 'cause you've talked about the earned income tax?
沃伦·巴菲特对,我赞成劳动所得税抵免。首先,我们有这个东西,所以有些实际经验。而且——我觉得我们在这上面每年花大约 600 亿美元。所以它——顺便说一句,这是个挺能体现两党共识的政策。我觉得保罗·瑞安也支持它。然后——还有一些——可以改进的地方。我的意思是——现在你是每年领一次,实际上,你知道,你会看到发薪日法规那种情况。在我看来,要是能——你知道,全年定期发放会更好,免得这种一次领一大笔的问题。然后——我觉得它应该——对工人来说——最低工资会影响市场经济学。而且如果你真搞得极端的话,影响还挺大。对工人来说重要的是他们能拿到手多少钱。而劳动所得税抵免,我觉得是既能保证人们兜里有点合理收入的最佳方式——即使他们干的是市场本身不会给太高工资的工作——也能保持工作的尊严。同时还能鼓励人们提高技能,因为往上走时,你能留下更多钱。所以我更偏好劳动所得税抵免。而且我觉得美国民众大体上也会更认可它。我认为它更能——它能鼓励更多美国人所看重的那些东西。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, I like the earned income tax credit. For one thing, we've got it. So we've got some experience with it. And-- I think we're spending about $60 billion a year on it. So it's-- and it's something, incidentally, that seems pretty bipartisan. I think Paul Ryan is in favor of it. And-- there're some-- be some improvements made. I mean-- I think now you get it once a year and, you know, in effect, you take payday laws-- seeing it coming. And it'd be better if it was, in my view, done, you know, on a regular basis throughout the year so you don't have this lump sum problem. And--I think it should be-- it-- to the person-- a minimum wage-- affects market economics. And it affects it big time if you really do it extreme enough. What counts to the worker is how much money they put in their pocket. And-- an earned income tax credit, I think, is the best way of both guaranteeing that people have a reasonable amount in their pocket even if they're working at jobs where the market doesn't pay them-- wouldn't pay that much. And it also keeps the dignity of work there. And it also encourages people to improve their skills because as you move up, you keep more of the money. So I much prefer the earned income tax credit. And I think the American people generally would endorse it more. I think it has more-- it encourages more things the American people kind of value.
贝基·奎克好,我们稍作——非常短的休息。回来之后,还有更多你们向沃伦·巴菲特提出的问题。我们就——在这个非常短的休息之后回来。在进入休息之前,快速看一眼美国股指期货。你看,整个上午它们都在上涨。道琼斯期货上涨 165 点,纳斯达克上涨 35 点,标普 500 指数上涨 13 点。《财经论谈》,马上回来。
BECKY QUICKOkay. We're gonna take-- a very quick break. When we return, we have more of your questions for Warren Buffett. We'll get to that-- just when we come back after this very quick break. As we head to that break, take a quick look at the U.S. equity futures. You know, see, they've been up all morning long. Dow future's up by 165 points, the NASDAQ up by 35, the S&P up by 13. Squawk Box, right back.
贝基·奎克欢迎回到《财经论谈》。现在是时候和我们今天早上的新闻人物——伯克希尔·哈撒韦董事长兼首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特——做一些告别快问快答。沃伦,有几个观众提出的快速问题。罗素·普鲁纳来信问,他想知道巴菲特先生认为“2018 年住宅地产表现会如何,尤其是受高房产税和 SALT 扣除(州和地方财产税扣除)取消影响的东北部豪华市场”。
BECKY QUICKWelcome back to Squawk Box. Right now it's time for some parting shots with our news maker of the morning, Berkshire Hathaway's chairman and CEO, Warren Buffett. Warren, a couple of quick questions that have come in-- from viewers as well. Russel Pruner writes in-- he was wondering what Mr. Buffett thinks about, "How residential real estate will perform in 2018, especially the luxury markets in the northeast impacted by high property taxes and the loss of the SALT deductions," the state and local-- property taxes deductions.
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我还真不知道。它们——我们走着瞧吧。而且——长期来看我喜欢这个行业。我支持自有住房。我是说,我——60 年前买了自己的房子,你知道,它——它一直是家庭幸福感的重要组成部分。所以——但是——对于——我一点概念都没有。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, I don't really know. They-- we'll find out. And-- I like the business over time. I like homeownership. I mean, I'm-- bought my house 60 years ago and-- you know, it-- it's been an important part of the family's happiness. So I--- but-- I haven't got the faintest idea on--
贝基·奎克好的。哈里·约翰来信提问。他说:“考虑到沃伦和查理在相遇时都已是意志坚定、对自己能力充满信心的人,他们是如何瞬间一拍即合的?又是什么让他们能彼此信任,成为终身商业伙伴?”
BECKY QUICKAll right. Harry John writes in. He says, "Considering that both Warren and Charlie were already both strong minded and confident in their own abilities when they met, how did they instantly click with each other? And what was it that allowed them to trust each other to be lifelong business partners?"
沃伦·巴菲特这个问题挺有意思。我们 1959 年一起吃晚饭时才认识,之前从未打过交道。他小时候住的地方离我现在住的房子不到一个街区。他跟我一样在我爷爷的杂货店里打过工,但直到他 35 岁、我 29 岁那年我们才相识。那天一起吃饭,五分钟之内——查理就被自己的笑话逗得笑翻在地,我也一样。所以我们当时就觉得,我俩简直是天造地设的一对。这么多年,我们连一次架都没吵过。我们俩都很有主见,对少数事情有分歧,但对大多数事情看法一致。我们在一起非常开心。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, it's an interesting question because we had dinner together in 1959 and we never knew each other. He grew up - less than a block away from where I now live. He worked at my grandfather's grocery store like I did, but we did not know each other till he was 35 and I was 29. And we went to dinner. And in five minutes-- Charlie was rolling at the floor laughing at his own jokes, and I do the same thing. So-- we knew we were sort of made for each other. And we've never had an argument in this whole time. We are strong minded. We disagree on a few things. We agree on most things. And we have a great time together. It--
贝基·奎克可以互相尊重——
BECKY QUICKCan respect each other--
沃伦·巴菲特那当然——
WARREN BUFFETTAbsolutely--
贝基·奎克——而且有不同意见。
BECKY QUICK--and disagree.
沃伦·巴菲特完全同意。
WARREN BUFFETTTotally.
贝基·奎克嘿,乔,我记得你刚才也有个问题要问?
BECKY QUICKHey, Joe, I think you had a question too?
乔·科南你知道,我们没时间了,但我——工作——我——看着——沃伦是怎么操作的。他从来不怎么——承诺那些很可能发生的事情。而且——克雷顿大学很可能进不了决赛。要是他们打进精英八强,巴菲特,那笔交易还怎么玩?比方说他们进了精英八强,我们能看那场比赛吗?或者呢——你是不是(听不清)——
JOE KERNENYou know, we don't have time, but l-- working-- I--watch how-- Warren operates. He never really-- promises things that are likely to happen. And-- Creighton probably won't make the finals. What about that deal works if they make the elite eight, Buffett? Let's say they make the elite eight, can we watch that game? Or what about-- are you (UNINTEL)--
沃伦·巴菲特我们会看那场比赛
WARREN BUFFETTWe'll watch that game
乔·科南好。精英八强。
JOE KERNENOkay. Elite eight.
沃伦·巴菲特成交——成交。
WARREN BUFFETTYou got-- you got a deal.
乔·科南好的。他们打进了精英八强。我——
JOE KERNENOkay. They make the elite eight. I--
沃伦·巴菲特精英八强。爆米花我请。爆米花我请。
WARREN BUFFETTElite eight. I'll buy the popcorn. I'll buy the popcorn.
乔·科南太好了。
JOE KERNENExcellent.
沃伦·巴菲特球票钱我出都行。但我是想——
WARREN BUFFETTI'll even buy the tickets. But I was gonna--
乔·科南好,票我来弄,别担心。我就是想用你的账号发条推特。总之,谢谢你,沃伦。谢谢你,贝基。
JOE KERNENYeah, I'll get the tickets. Don't worry. I just wanna tweet on your account. Anyway, thank you, Warren. Thank you, Becky.
沃伦·巴菲特顺便提一句——
WARREN BUFFETTAnd incidentally--
乔·科南而且这太棒了——
JOE KERNENAnd it's great--
沃伦·巴菲特——内布拉斯加有一支好
WARREN BUFFETT--Nebraska has a good
贝基·奎克对,沃伦,谢谢你——
BECKY QUICKYeah, Warren, thank you--
乔·科南哦,那也是内布拉斯加。
JOE KERNENOh, it's Nebraska too.
贝基·奎克——非常感谢你今天抽出时间。
BECKY QUICK--so much for your time today.
沃伦·巴菲特好的,谢谢。
WARREN BUFFETTOkay. Thanks.
乔·科南好,太好了。谢——
JOE KERNENAll right, great. Thank--
沃伦·巴菲特内布拉斯加有一支好球队。
WARREN BUFFETTNebraska has a good team.
乔·科南行,不管哪个,我就接这个话茬了。贝基,谢谢你。关于 CNBC:凭借 CNBC 美国频道、CNBC 亚太频道、CNBC 欧洲、中东和非洲频道以及 CNBC 全球频道,CNBC 被公认为全球商业新闻的领导者,向全球逾 4.09 亿户家庭提供实时金融市场报道和商业信息,其中包括美国和加拿大的 9100 多万户家庭。CNBC 还为中国 4 亿户家庭提供每日商业资讯。该网络在北美每天直播 15 小时商业节目(工作日东部时间早 4:00 至晚 7:00),制作地点在 CNBC 位于新泽西州恩格尔伍德克利夫斯的全球总部,节目内容包含来自 CNBC 全球各新闻分社的报道。CNBC 晚间时段则播出全新真人秀节目、CNBC 独家制作的高收视率系列片以及多部独具特色的自制纪录片。CNBC 还拥有庞大的数字产品组合,通过多种平台提供实时金融市场新闻与信息,这些平台包括:CNBC.com;CNBC PRO(一款高级整合型桌面/移动端服务,可实时收看 CNBC 节目、独家视频内容以及全球市场数据与分析);一系列 CNBC 移动产品,包括适用于 iOS、Android 和 Windows 设备的 CNBC 应用程序;以及适用于 Apple Watch 和 Apple TV 的 CNBC 应用等其他产品。媒体人士可通过 NBCUniversal Media Village 网站 http://www.nbcumv.com/programming/cnbc 获取更多关于 CNBC 及其节目的信息。如需了解有关 NBCUniversal 的更多信息,请访问 http://www.NBCUniversal.com。有保密新闻线索?我们期待你的来信。注册免费新闻通讯,将更多 CNBC 内容直接发送至你的收件箱。将此内容发送至你的收件箱,并获取关于我们产品和服务的更多信息。© 2026 Versant Media, LLC. 保留所有权利。Versant Media 公司旗下。数据为实时快照 *数据至少延迟 15 分钟。
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JOE KERNENAll right either one then I will take that. Becky thank you. About CNBC: With CNBC in the U.S., CNBC in Asia Pacific, CNBC in Europe, Middle East and Africa, and CNBC World, CNBC is the recognized world leader in business news and provides real-time financial market coverage and business information to more than 409 million homes worldwide, including more than 91 million households in the United States and Canada. CNBC also provides daily business updates to 400 million households across China. The network's 15 live hours a day of business programming in North America (weekdays from 4:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m. ET) is produced at CNBC's global headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J., and includes reports from CNBC News bureaus worldwide. CNBC at night features a mix of new reality programming, CNBC's highly successful series produced exclusively for CNBC and a number of distinctive in-house documentaries. CNBC also has a vast portfolio of digital products which deliver real-time financial market news and information across a variety of platforms including: CNBC.com; CNBC PRO, the premium, integrated desktop/mobile service that provides live access to CNBC programming, exclusive video content and global market data and analysis; a suite of CNBC mobile products including the CNBC Apps for iOS, Android and Windows devices; and additional products such as the CNBC App for the Apple Watch and Apple TV. Members of the media can receive more information about CNBC and its programming on the NBCUniversal Media Village Web site at http://www.nbcumv.com/programming/cnbc. For more information about NBCUniversal, please visit http://www.NBCUniversal.com. Got a confidential news tip? We want to hear from you. Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inbox Get this delivered to your inbox, and more info about our products and services. © 2026 Versant Media, LLC. All Rights Reserved. A Versant Media Company. Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes.
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