2026 年卸任后首次专访
今天,2026 年 3 月 31 日,星期二
WHEN: Today, Tuesday, March 31, 2026
地点CNBC 的《财经扬声器》。以下为 CNBC 于今日(2026 年 3 月 31 日,星期二)对伯克希尔·哈撒韦董事长沃伦·巴菲特进行独家专访的非官方文字记录,播出栏目为《财经扬声器》(周一至周五,美国东部时间早 6 点至 9 点)。以下是 CNBC.com 上的相关视频链接:https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/03/31/warren-buffett-teams-up-with-nba-superstar-stephen-curry-for-charity-lunch-reviving-iconic-auction.html、https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/03/31/warren-buffett-says-hes-still-making-calls-on-investments-at-berkshire-flags-tiny-new-buy.html、https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/03/31/warren-buffett-on-apple-i-sold-too-soon.html、https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/03/31/warren-buffett-i-wish-the-fed-had-a-zero-inflation-target.html、https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/03/31/warren-buffett-the-world-is-more-dangerous-with-iranian-nuclear-weapons.html 以及 https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/03/31/warren-buffett-on-epstein-files-havent-spoken-to-bill-gates-since-the-whole-thing-unveiled.html。所有引用均须注明来源为 CNBC。
WHERECNBC's "Squawk Box" Following is the unofficial transcript of a CNBC exclusive interview with Berkshire Hathaway Chairman Warren Buffett on CNBC's "Squawk Box" (M-F, 6AM-9AM ET) today, Tuesday, March 31. Following are links to video on CNBC.com: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/03/31/warren-buffett-teams-up-with-nba-superstar-stephen-curry-for-charity-lunch-reviving-iconic-auction.html, https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/03/31/warren-buffett-says-hes-still-making-calls-on-investments-at-berkshire-flags-tiny-new-buy.html, https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/03/31/warren-buffett-on-apple-i-sold-too-soon.html, https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/03/31/warren-buffett-i-wish-the-fed-had-a-zero-inflation-target.html, https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/03/31/warren-buffett-the-world-is-more-dangerous-with-iranian-nuclear-weapons.html, and https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/03/31/warren-buffett-on-epstein-files-havent-spoken-to-bill-gates-since-the-whole-thing-unveiled.html. All references must be sourced to CNBC.
乔·科南欢迎回到《财经扬声器》。我们连线贝基。上面写着要连线贝基·奎克,她在内布拉斯加州奥马哈,和一位非常特别的——这还远远不够。和一位非常——我得再加几个词。也许不同等级,非常、非常、非常——
JOE KERNENWelcome back to "Squawk Box." Let's get to Becky. It says let's get to Becky Quick who's in Omaha, Nebraska with a very special – that's not enough. With a very – I need some more. Varies, maybe, very, very, very –
贝基·奎克一位非常、非常、特别棒的嘉宾。
BECKY QUICKA very, very, special guest.
乔·科南非常。
KERNENVery.
贝基·奎克再来点排场。也许我们该放点音乐。
QUICKA little more pomp and circumstance. Maybe we need some music.
乔·科南放音乐。沃伦·巴菲特。这么久没见了,这肯定特别棒。
KERNENMusic. Warren Buffett. It's been so long, it's just gonna be awesome.
贝基·奎克对。他在这。
QUICKYeah. He's here.
乔·科南他特别棒。帮我转告他,说我问他好,说我爱他。
KERNENHe is awesome. Tell him I said hi and I love him.
贝基·奎克我会的。乔向你问好。你知道他爱你的,乔。他这会儿正冲你挥手呢。今天我们确实有位非常特别的嘉宾,沃伦·巴菲特,伯克希尔·哈撒韦的董事长、伯克希尔·哈撒韦的前首席执行官,这也是他卸任 CEO 一职以来,我们第一次与他坐下来交谈。沃伦,欢迎你。今早见到你真让人高兴。
BECKY QUICKI will. Joe says, hi. You know he loves you, Joe. He's waving to you right now. We do have a very special guest today, Warren Buffett, the Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, former CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, and this first time that we are sitting down with him since he stepped down from that CE role – CEO role. Warren, welcome. It is wonderful to see you this morning.
沃伦·巴菲特能来上节目挺有意思的。
WARREN BUFFETTIt is fun to be on.
贝基·奎克你今天坐在这里,是因为一个有意思的理由。22 年来,你一直举办一年一度的午餐拍卖,为旧金山的葛莱德基金会募款。2022 年,你不再做这件事了——在那之前,你已筹集了超过 5000 万美元,我记得你上一场拍卖筹得的金额——你筹到了——
QUICKYou are on for an interesting reason. For 22 years, you had been holding an annual luncheon, an auction for a luncheon, to benefit the Glide Foundation in San Francisco. You retired from that – from doing that back in 2022 after you'd raised more than $50 million I think the last auction that you raised – that you did raised –
沃伦·巴菲特1900 万美元。
BUFFETT$19 million.
贝基·奎克1900.01 万美元,捐给了葛莱德基金会。之后你差不多就把这事搁下了,说那就是最后一次了。而今天你又带着一项新消息回来了,要宣布一场新拍卖即将到来,还多了个新玩法。这次是沃伦·巴菲特、斯蒂芬·库里和艾莎·库里,他们将共同举办一场新的午餐会,不仅为葛莱德基金会,也为库里夫妇的“吃饭、学习、玩耍”(Eat. Learn. Play.)基金会带来收益。本次拍卖将于 5 月 7 日太平洋时间晚上 7:30 开拍,并于 5 月 14 日晚上 7:30 整收拍。全部收益将捐给这两个基金会,即葛莱德基金会与“吃饭、学习、玩耍”基金会。这件事是怎么促成的?你为什么又愿意为此“复出”呢?
QUICK$19,000,100 for the Glide Foundation. And you kind of hung it up and said that was going to be the end. You are back with a new announcement today that there is a new auction that is coming with a twist. This time it's Warren Buffett, Stephen Curry and Ayesha Curry, and they're going to be having a new luncheon to benefit not only the Glide Foundation, but the Curry's foundation as well, which is, Eat, Learn, Play. And this auction is going to be held May 7. It starts at 7:30pm Pacific time. It closes on May 14, at 7:30pm exactly. And all of the benefits of that is going to go to benefit these two foundations, Glide and the Eat, Learn, Play Foundation. How did this come about? Why did you unretire from this?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,让我先聊聊我是怎么开始做这件事的。我的第一任妻子苏茜(Susie)当时住在旧金山,她跟我说,这个人很实在。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, let me tell you first how I got into it because my first wife, Susie, was living in San Francisco and she said to me, this guy is real.
贝基·奎克这个人就是塞西尔。
QUICKThis guy being Cecil.
巴菲特塞西尔。是的,塞西尔·威廉姆斯,1963 年来到那座教堂,那是一座在旧金山社区变迁中濒临消亡的教堂,剩下的约 100 名教众并不欢迎他。但他把它变成了一个——给被世界抛弃的人带去希望和生机的地方。我周日去的时候,心里还想着可能不过如此,但我看着塞西尔,我能看出他在做什么,他这人确实是动真格的。于是苏茜有一天说,你为什么不帮他筹点钱呢?你知道,就这样,我记得实际上是她想出了拍卖午餐的主意,然后我们就办了。头三次午餐每次筹到 2.5 万美元,因为只限于本地。后来我们想到了上 eBay 拍卖,然后开始收到来自世界各地的出价。金额一路往上涨,虽然不是每年都涨,但它——它就是让我们打出了名气。最终总额,是 1900 万美元。之所以能筹到这个数,我猜大概因为这是最后一次了,我记得有个买过之前那次午餐的人是做美式橄榄球的,但我没给他打过电话,也没做任何别的事。他就是——这件事就是能激励人。还有史密斯和沃伦斯基餐厅,你知道,有时在纽约会承办。
BUFFETTCecil. Yeah, Cecil Williams, who came to that church in 1963 and it was a dying church in a changing part of the neighborhood in San Francisco, and they weren't glad to see him the 100 or so parishioners that were left. But he turned it into something that became – it gave hope and life to people that the world had given up on. And I went on Sunday still expecting something less than that, and I watched Cecil, and I could see what he was doing, and he was for real. And so Susie, at some point, said, why don't you do something to raise some money for him? You know, and so, I think she actually selected the idea of the lunch, and then we did the lunch. The first three lunches brought $25,000 each because they were localized. And then we got the idea of going on eBay. And then we started getting bids from around the world. And it just generally kept moving up, although it wasn't every single year, but it just – it just put us on the map. And as the final amount, 19 million was raised. Now that was kind of raised because it was the last one, I think, I was doing NFL that had bought an earlier lunch, but I didn't make any calls to him or do anything. He just turned out to be – it inspires people. And Smith & Wollensky, as you know, covered it in New York sometimes.
贝基·奎克那往往就是你跟中标者共进午餐的地方。
QUICKThat's often where you had the lunch with the winners of this.
巴菲特是的。有些人希望匿名,还有几个人先后专程来了奥马哈,因为他们有些特别的事想谈。但我觉得每个人都觉得庆幸自己拍了,我也很庆幸我做了这件事。
BUFFETTYeah. And some of them wanted to be anonymous. And a couple came to Omaha along the line because they had some special thing they wanted to talk about. But I think everybody felt like they were glad they did it, and I was glad to do it.
贝基·奎克那你为什么不办了?
QUICKWhy'd you stop?
巴菲特嗯,我精力实在跟不上了。你知道,我那时大概 93 岁,差不多吧。就这样——跟我放弃教书的原因一样。我教书——我是——我从 21 岁到 88 或 89 岁,每年都教,但总有那么个时候,你的身体会对你说些不一样的话,你就该把它交给别人,就像我在伯克希尔做的那样。我的意思是,不同时期,不同事情上,我都这样——而且我们本以为已经把后续全都安排好了,可后来出于这样那样的原因,这事就黄了。所以最后两年,呃,第一年的时候,我记得是某位董事凑了些人选——但基本上那个拍卖就没了。
BUFFETTWell, I ran out of gas. You know, I got to be what, 93 at that time, or something like that. And it just – same reason I gave up teaching. I teach – I was – I taught every year from when I was 21 till 88 or 89, and there just came a period when your body said different things to you, and you should turn it over to somebody, just like I did at Berkshire. I mean, at different times, on different things, but I – and so we thought we had a continuation of it all set up, and then for one reason or another, it fizzled. And so the last two years, well, I think the first year, some board member made up some members – but basically the auction disappeared.
贝基·奎克所以格莱德一直就没有这一块资金进来。
QUICKSo they haven't had the funds coming in.
巴菲特是的。塞西尔·威廉姆斯和我年纪相仿——后来我在电话里已经听不清他说话了,类似这样的情况,但他唯一的心愿就是让这事继续办下去。我不太记得这个主意具体从哪来的了,但我说了我愿再办一次,就为了让我们重新启动,也为了让斯蒂芬·库里加入我们在湾区。我是说,这是顺理成章的事。
BUFFETTNo. And Cecil Williams was about my age – and it got so I couldn't understand him on the phone or anything like that, but all he wanted was this to continue. And so I don't know where the idea came from exactly, but I said I would do one more, just to get us started again and to have Steph Curry join us in the Bay Area. I mean, it's just a natural.
贝基·奎克没错。斯蒂芬和阿耶莎·库里夫妇创办的“Eat. Learn. Play.”基金会也在湾区。
QUICKRight. The Eat, Learn, Play Foundation that Stephen and Ayesha Curry have set up is in the Bay Area as well.
巴菲特正是。
BUFFETTExactly.
贝基·奎克所以他们都扎根在本地做这些事。不了解的人可能知道,格莱德基金会也在威尔·史密斯主演的电影《当幸福来敲门》里有过高光片段。所以大家可能对它大致有点概念。为什么选斯蒂芬·库里?这事是怎么促成的?
QUICKSo they're locally focused on all of these things. For people who don't know, the Glide Foundation was also, it was highlighted in the movie "The Pursuit of Happyness" with Will Smith. So people may have a little bit of an idea of what that's about. Why Steph Curry? How did that come about?
巴菲特这个嘛,我是说,还有谁能比他讲得更好?我是说,他在奥克兰跟孩子们一起做事。那些孩子大概在五到十五岁之间,类似这个年龄段,他跟他们打篮球。我是说,他这个人棒极了。我没——我本人还没见过他。
BUFFETTWell, I mean, who can say it better? I mean, he's working with the kids in Oakland. I mean, these are kids between five and 15, or something like that, and he plays basketball with them. And I mean, he's a terrific guy. I don't – I haven't met him personally.
贝基·奎克但你和斯蒂芬、阿耶莎确实通过电话了。
QUICKBut you did talk to Stephen and Ayesha.
巴菲特我们在电话里聊了很久。这是他的心血,他可以把它推进下去。另外,顺带提一句,无论今年拍出什么价格,我个人也捐等额一笔。我估计——斯蒂芬还不知道这事,但我会向格莱德和斯蒂芬的基金会——
BUFFETTWe had a long talk on the phone. And it's his baby, and he can carry it forth. And, incidentally, whatever is bid this year, I will make the equal contribution. I don't think – Steph doesn't know this yet, but I will make an equal contribution to both Glide and to Steph's –
贝基·奎克——捐给库里的基金会。
QUICKTo the Curry's foundation.
巴菲特对。你明白,就是要把它推向新的高度。斯蒂芬是千千万万人的英雄。所以,我觉得——我确实觉得,作为一种回报,它会继续成为塞西尔所希望的样子。让它就这么无疾而终,真会要了我的命。想到塞西尔倾注了那么多心血,他相信每个人都有价值。而这个世界已经放弃了这些人,他可能在他走完全程之前,就已经开始给他们发一点食物了——他在格莱德做了这所有一切。他从来没有放弃过任何一个人。
BUFFETTYeah. And, you know, just go on to new heights. And Steph is the hero of millions and millions of people. So, I think – I really think as a reward, I think it will continue to be what Cecil hoped it to be. And it would have killed me to have it just die off. And as much what Cecil poured into it himself, he believed everybody was worthwhile. And the world had given up on these people, and he may have started giving a little bit of food to them before he got through – he was doing all these things at Glide. And he never gave up on anybody.
贝基·奎克我知道您也说过,阿斯特丽德也确实很喜欢他。
QUICKAnd I know that you've said that Astrid really liked him, too.
巴菲特对,没错。阿斯特丽德,我的第二任妻子。你不可能不喜欢他。我是说,当你看到他在台上面对那些被全世界放弃的人时,他对他们说,我来养活你。我给你一张床。我给你一个地方。你知道我们不会放弃你。而且他从未食言。
BUFFETTOh yeah. Astrid, my second wife. And you couldn't help but like him. I mean, when you watched him up there with people that the world had given up on and he says to him, I'll feed you. I'll have a bed for you. We'll have a location for you. You know we're not going to give up on you. And never did.
贝基·奎克沃伦,这是你从伯克希尔·哈撒韦首席执行官职位上退下来之后,我们第一次坐下来跟你聊。
QUICKWarren, this is the first time that we're sitting down with you since you stepped down from the position of CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.
沃伦·巴菲特是的。
BUFFETTYeah.
贝基·奎克那是一场漫长的征程,极为成功。现在你每天的生活跟以前有什么不同?
QUICKIt was a long, long run. Very successful run. How is your life different today?
巴菲特嗯,其实没什么两样,只不过——我是说,我每天都去办公室。
BUFFETTWell, it's not much different, except for the – I mean, I go in every day.
贝基·奎克去办公室?
QUICKTo the office?
巴菲特是啊。我天天都去办公室,但几乎干不成什么事。我的意思是,就做事效率来说,花的时间比以前长太多了。格雷格实在太出色了,他优秀到让我有点难为情,因为他掌管着——你知道,伯克希尔旗下大约有 200 家子公司,很多都是后来加入的,我连那些经理人的名字都叫不上来,更别说他们太太的名字了,而且我也很久没见过他们了。每年写一封信,然后干点自己的事,反倒更省事。格雷格一天跑的地盘,比我一周还多——就算在我巅峰时期也比不上,更别提现在这副样子了。所以这个交接在很多方面都是顺理成章的,我早该这么做了,格雷格比我干得好。不过呢,我还是能贡献一点点微薄之力。
BUFFETTYeah. I go in every day to the office. I don't accomplish hardly anything. I mean, in terms of – it just takes me way longer to do things. And Greg is so good. It was kind of embarrassing how good he is, because he has covered – you know, we've got about 200 businesses within Berkshire, you know, that came about, and I can't name the manager's names or their wives names, or – and I haven't seen them, you know, in a long time. It's easier just to write the letter once a year and kind of do my own thing. Greg covers more ground in a day than I would in a week, even when I was at my peak, let alone my present condition. So it's a move that in many ways, I could have done it earlier, and Greg would have been better than I was, but you know, and I can still contribute just a tiny bit.
贝基·奎克那么,你还有参与任何投资决策吗?
QUICKWell, are you still involved in making investments at all?
巴菲特对。对,但格雷格觉得不对的,我一个也不会做。他会处理——他开始接到一些电话了,会跟我商量,跟我一样,他也不喜欢那些事,但——
BUFFETTYeah. Yeah, but I won't make any that Greg thinks are wrong. And he'll run – he's starting to get a few calls, and he'll call me about them, and like me, he doesn't like them, but –
贝基·奎克有人打电话来谈交易?
QUICKCalls for deals?
巴菲特他会随时告知我。是的,嗯,对。投资银行家们总给他打电话——他们会去见他——你知道,他们什么都想推销。我大概 10 到 15 秒就能把他们打发了,而他——他花在他们身上的时间更多,但我不明白他从哪挤出这些时间,因为他还要打冰球——我是说,他并不像我当年那样狂热地经营这家公司,但看上去毫不费力,他就覆盖了那么多方面。
BUFFETTHe'll keep me posted. Yeah, Well, yeah. It's investment bankers calling him and – they will see him – you know, they will try to sell anything. But I cut them off in about 10 or 15 seconds, and he's – he spends more time with them, but I don't know where he gets this time, because he plays hockey with his – I mean, it isn't like he's as fanatic as I was in terms of running the place, but with no more apparent effort, he just covers so many bases.
贝基·奎克说到您在做投资这件事。我是说,那可是巨额资金。伯克希尔目前手头有多少现金?
QUICKIn terms of what you're doing with investing. I mean, that's a huge amount of money. How much cash does Berkshire have on hand at this point?
巴菲特我不知道确切数字,但跟之前相差不大。所以,你知道,大概在 3500 亿美元以上,主要是现金和短期国债。
BUFFETTI don't know the exact number, but it's not much different than before. So you know, it's probably north of $350 billion in cash and treasury bills.
贝基·奎克是的。那么——
QUICKYeah. So –
巴菲特本周我们买入了 170 亿美元。
BUFFETTWe bought 17 billion this week.
贝基·奎克170 亿美元短期国债?
QUICK17 billion of T bills?
巴菲特短期国债。
BUFFETTOf T bills.
贝基·奎克伯克希尔是短期国债的最大持有者?
QUICKBerkshire is the largest owner of T bills?
巴菲特我想我们可能是最大的投标方。讽刺的是,我当初卷入所罗门公司的事,就是因为他们投标的国债太多了。我觉得他们现在不会对我们生气——我们的量确实也太多了,但在拍卖中,按规定你不能超过 35% 还是多少来着。而且,你当然得通过一级交易商投标。不过具体操作细节我其实不太清楚,我们办公室有一个人专门处理我们买卖所有股票和债券的具体流程。
BUFFETTI think we're probably the largest bidder. And ironically, I got involved in Solomon because they bid for too many bills. And I don't think they'd get mad at us now – we've been for too many but, you're not supposed to go over 35% or something in the auction. And of course, you bid through the primary dealers. But I don't even know the mechanics that well, but one fellow in our office handles all the mechanics of the stocks and bonds we buy.
贝基·奎克马克·米勒德。
QUICKMark Millard.
巴菲特对,就是他。换别的任何地方,他们得雇二三十个人。他热爱他做的事,我也热爱他做的事。他办公室就在走廊那头大约 20 英尺的地方,大概每隔一小时或一个半小时,他就会把我们的交易成果拿过来给我看。有时候——
BUFFETTYeah, exactly. At anyplace else they'd have 25 or 30 people. And he loves what he does, and I love what he does. He's down the hall about 20 feet, about every hour or hour and a half, he brings me in what we've done. And sometimes –
贝基·奎克伯克希尔做了什么,单就那天的市场而言?
QUICKWhat Berkshire has done, just in terms of the markets that day?
巴菲特对,我会给他打电话。我是在开盘前打,因为我想看看盘前的情况,可能只是调整一下限价。我不会买很多种不同的股票之类的东西。偶尔,我会让他去处理一些交易,然后我会每天调整价格。
BUFFETTYeah, I call him. I call him before the market opens, because I see what's been going on pre market, and probably change the limits only. I don't get lots of different stocks or anything like that. Every now and then, I'll let it do something, and I will change – prices daily.
贝基·奎克但您不会——您在做这些之前不和格雷格确认吗?您不是定期和格雷格——
QUICKBut you don't do that – you don't check with Greg before you're doing that? You check with Greg on a regular –
巴菲特哦,格雷格每天都会拿到那份交易明细。
BUFFETTWell, Greg gets the sheet every day.
贝基·奎克哦,他也会收到。
QUICKOh, he does, too.
巴菲特不过他收到得没我这么快。我是说——不过他可能是在收盘后还是什么时候收到我们发过去的报告。而且,但凡格雷格对任何一笔交易有不同意见,我们肯定就不会去做了。
BUFFETTHe doesn't get it quite as fast as I get it. I mean – but he probably gets it sent over at the end of the day or something of the sort. And if Greg differed with me on anything, we wouldn't be doing it.
贝基·奎克但您还在买入新股吗?
QUICKBut you're still making new purchases?
巴菲特什么?
BUFFETTPardon me?
贝基·奎克您还在买入新的吗?
QUICKYou're still making new purchases?
巴菲特有一笔很小的买入,但我们找不到合适的——之前也一直找不到。
BUFFETTGot one tiny purchase, but we aren't finding things that – we weren't finding them before.
贝基·奎克那好,我们来谈谈这个。市场已经大幅下跌了。
QUICKWell, let's talk about that. The market has come down substantially.
巴菲特不算大幅。
BUFFETTNot substantially.
贝基·奎克现在道琼斯和纳斯达克都进入了回调区间,这是近四年来股市季度表现最差的一次。你觉得现在的资产看起来更便宜了吗?
QUICKWell, you've got both the Dow and the Nasdaq in correction territory. It's the worst performance on a quarterly basis for stocks in about four years. Do things look cheaper to you?
巴菲特没有。我接手伯克希尔以来,股价跌超 50% 的情况出现过三次。我的意思是,你看看市场,最惨的大概是 2007、2008 年那会儿——不过还有一个周一,一天就跌了 21%。我是说,现在这点跌幅根本不算什么。
BUFFETTNo. Three times since I've taken over Berkshire, it's gone down more than 50%. I mean, if you look at the markets, of the worst, probably was the 2007, 08' period, although it was that one Monday, when you had 21% in a day. I mean, this is nothing. I mean—
贝基·奎克也就是说,现在这点跌幅根本不足以让你兴奋,也谈不上出现巨大的估值——
QUICKThis is nothing to make you get excited and think there's huge valuation—
巴菲特嗯,如果它们便宜了 5% 或 6%,那不算什么——我们不是为了赚 5% 或 6% 才投资的——但最终,我们拥有的是生意。有些生意是全部拥有,有些是部分拥有。这就是我喜欢拥有的东西。我们三分之二甚至更多的资金都投在我们的生意里了。1 月 3 日我们买进了西方石油,花了 97 亿美元。在我看来,这跟持有股票相比,有优点也有缺点,但遵循的原则是一样的。它是一门生意,而且是我们打算无限期拥有的生意。我是说——
BUFFETTWell if they're 5 or 6% cheaper, that doesn't, we aren't in it to make 5 or 6% I mean, but what a big seller either, in the end, we own businesses. Sometimes there's only owned, sometimes they're partly owned. That's what I like to own. And two thirds of our money, or more is in our businesses. And we bought Occidental Chemical on January 3, that was 9.7 billion. And as far as I'm concerned, that's got some advantages, some disadvantages, versus owning a stock, but it's got the same principles attached to it. It is a business, and it's a business we expect to own, you know, indefinitely. I mean—
贝基·奎克我的意思是,听起来你似乎也没找到那些你想干脆直接全资收购的企业——不光是参股一部分——何况你手上还闲置着超过 3500 亿美元的资金。
QUICKAre you, I mean, it doesn't sound like you're necessarily finding businesses that you want to own flat out either, not just purchasing portions of them if you've got $350 billion plus sitting around.
巴菲特是啊,我们一直都有接到电话,电话多得不得了,但就像我说的,我五秒钟就能回绝。格雷格比我客气一点,但我还巴不得接这些电话,就是想看看别人在干什么。只是他们报出的价格根本没有吸引力,他们想要的是换股交易。
BUFFETTYeah and we get calls all the time, and there's so many calls, but the like I said, it takes me five seconds to say no. It takes, Greg's a little more polite than I am, but I just as soon get the calls just to see what people are doing. But they aren't offering anything that's at an attractive price, and what they want is a trade.
贝基·奎克你们是在等市场下一次大跌来动用那笔现金吗?如果是的话,你们觉得什么时候会来?
QUICKAre you waiting for the next big drop in the market to deploy that cash, and if so, when do you see that coming?
巴菲特是的,如果市场出现大幅下跌,我们会部署资金,但我们会这么做,是因为股票或者生意对我们有吸引力,而且我们不打算下周或者下个月就卖掉,所以我们希望自己的判断是正确的。我们持有美国运通的股票已经 30 年了——快 40 年了,有 35 年了。另一方面,有些东西我也会很快就改变主意,但目标始终是拥有那些企业。我们买进西方石油时,是期望 50 年后还完整持有它。你知道,世界可能会以某种方式改变,但我们买入时并没有想着转手卖出。
BUFFETTYeah, if there is a big decline, we will deploy, I mean, but we won't, we will deploy it because stocks are attractive or businesses are attractive to us, and we are not planning to sell them next week or next month, so we want to be right on them. And we've had our American Express stock 30 years without having a -- close to 40 years, 35 years. And on the other hand, there's things I change my mind on fairly quickly, but, but the goal is own the owned businesses, and when we buy Occidental Chemical, we expect all of that 50 years from now. You know, the world can change in some way, but that we do not, we do not buy that with a thought of resale.
贝基·奎克你卖掉了大量为你带来丰厚回报的股票——苹果——
QUICKYou've sold a lot of stock that's done very well for you, Apple—
巴菲特嗯,我卖是卖早了,但我买得更早。所以,结果还不错。没错,我想我们在那上面已经赚了超过 1000 亿美元的税前利润。
BUFFETTWell, I sold it too soon, but I bought it even sooner. So, it worked out. Yeah, I think we've made over $100 billion in that pretax.
贝基·奎克但您后悔过吗?您说自己卖得太早了?
QUICKBut you're regretting it? You say you sold it too soon?
巴菲特不后悔,不后悔,我没有任何能力预测股票下周或下个月会怎么走。如果股价便宜,我就会买。如果价格便宜,而且我自认为确实理解这门生意,我就会大量买入。苹果仍然是我们的第一大持仓。
BUFFETTNo, no, I don't have any ability to predict what stocks will do next week or next month and I will buy them if they're cheap. I'll buy a whole lot of them if they're cheap and I think I really understand the business, and Apple is still our largest single investment.
贝基·奎克而且你对这种状态挺满意?
QUICKAnd you like it that way?
巴菲特是啊,如果我不满意,卖掉就是了。没错,我可以——我觉得这话值得一说——苹果比我们全资拥有的任何一门生意都要好。举个例子,我们拥有的铁路总价值比我们的苹果持仓更高,但两者在我眼里是一样的。我是说,它们都是生意。从某种意义上说,我认为铁路在 50 年或 100 年后还会存在,这更加可预测,但它的资本回报率远远比不上苹果。我是说,苹果是一门你有——你大概有一部,你的孩子们也都有的生意,而且——
BUFFETTYeah, well, if I didn't like it, I could sell it. Yeah, I can, I think it's a remark -- it's better than any business we own outright. Now, we own a railroad that's worth more money than our Apple position, for example, they're both looked at the same way. I mean, they're both, they're both businesses. I expect the, I think it's more predictable in a certain sense, that the railroad will be around 50 or 100 years from now, but it doesn't earn the rate remotely on capital than Apple does. I mean, Apple is a business that you've got one, probably and your kids have got them, and—
贝基·奎克不是一部,我们大概有 20 部。
QUICKNot one, we've got like 20 of them.
巴菲特是的,设备。实际上,贝尔电话公司曾一度也是如此,但它们当时受到监管。
BUFFETYeah, devices. Actually, the Bell Telephone Company was that way at one point, but they were regulated.
贝基·奎克那您会担心监管降临到这些大型科技公司头上吗,尤其是苹果?
QUICKWell, do you worry about regulation coming for some of these big tech companies, in particular Apple?
巴菲特我觉得消费者已经相当迷恋它们的产品了。我不认为华盛顿会做什么事,去真正毁掉一件每个选民都喜欢、而且自己也在用的东西。我是说,从这个角度看,这确实是一款了不起的产品。想想看,像苹果这么有用的东西。我是说,蒂姆·库克拿着这副牌打得比史蒂夫·乔布斯还要好。库克做不到乔布斯当年所做的,但乔布斯交给他的这副牌,如果还由乔布斯自己来打,未必能打得一样好。是乔布斯挑中了他。我是说,归根结底,蒂姆是一位极为出色的经理人,为人也好,而且不知怎的,他能和天底下所有人处好关系——这个嘛,你知道,比如我就是不具备这种本事的人。当然,我的合伙人查理·芒格也没这本事。不过,我很乐意让它成为我们最大的持仓。但它的规模大到几乎超过其他所有持仓的总和,这一点我当时是有些不安的。
BUFFETTI think the consumers are in love with them too much. I don't, I don't think Washington will do anything that really destroys something that every one of their voters likes and they're using themselves. I mean, it's a remarkable product that way. Just think of something as useful as the Apple is. I mean, it's, Tim Cook has done better with the hand than Steve Jobs. He couldn't have done what Steve Jobs did, but Steve Jobs handed him a hand that Steve would not have done as well. Steve picked him. I mean, when you get right down to it, and Tim was a fantastic manager, and he's a good guy, and somehow he gets along with everybody in the world, which is, you know, that's, that's a technique I wouldn't have for example. Certainly my partner, Charlie Munger, wouldn't have had it, but I'm very happy to have it be our largest open. I was not happy to have it be as large as almost everything else combined.
贝基·奎克好的,有道理。
QUICKOkay, that makes sense.
巴菲特虽然之前的价格水平是让我动心的,而且他们可以——
BUFFETTAlthough at a price I was, and they could—
贝基·奎克对。举起来——
QUICKRight. Hold it up—
巴菲特苹果的股价跌到我们愿意大量买入的水平并非不可能,但不会出现在当下这个市场。我是说,在这个市场环境下它就是不会发生。
BUFFETTIt's not impossible that Apple would get to a price, we would buy a lot of it, but not in this market. I mean, it just isn't going to happen in this market.
贝基·奎克股票得跌多少,您才会觉得确实很有吸引力——如果会跌到那一步的话?
QUICKHow much would stocks have to come down for you to think that this is really attractive, if it's—
巴菲特嗯,那得看是哪只股票。现在有些股票,总的来说,走势在很大程度上是趋同的,不过,我不觉得自己知道市场接下来会怎么走。我确实认为,我对一家企业值多少钱心里大致有数。但股市会怎么走,我完全不知道,而且我也不认为有其他人知道。
BUFFETTWell it depends on the stock. Some stocks now, generally speaking, they move together to quite a degree, but, but I don't think I know what the market's going to do. I do think I've got a reasonable idea of what a business is worth. I have no idea what the stock market's going to do, and I don't think anybody else does either.
贝基·奎克您并不是必然要跟紧科技公司;苹果这家公司,人们看作科技公司,但您一直以来都把它当作消费品公司看待。
QUICKYou don't necessarily follow tech companies and Apple, people look at as a tech company, but you always looked at as a consumer company.
巴菲特它是一家消费品——
BUFFETIt's a consumer.
贝基·奎克是的。
QUICKYeah.
巴菲特——公司。
BUFFETTCompany.
贝基·奎克那么,您怎么应对所有这些科技股以及眼下的人工智能趋势呢?您会试着去跟一下吗?会参与其中哪些行业吗?
QUICKSo what do you do about all of these tech stocks and the AI trends that are there? Do you try and follow any of that? Do you get involved in any of those industries?
巴菲特呃,我不参与,因为第一,我做这个根本不在行;再者,我入场也太晚了。我现在学新东西学得不好,到现在还不知道手机该怎么用。但我只是认清一个事实,那就是你知道你自己总会有一部手机,你的孩子也想要一部,而且它极其有用——我是说,它好用得不可思议。当你得到一件在全世界都能买到、且极其有用的东西时,而且在某种程度上,人们会有点儿担心把照片从一个系统转移到另一个系统。我唯一需要做的,只是去一趟内布拉斯加家具城,和顾客们聊聊而已——这跟我 60 年前在美国运通上的做法如出一辙。当时,因为沙拉油丑闻,大家都觉得美国运通要完了。我走到奥马哈国民银行,问他们:“你们美国运通的旅行支票,能卖出溢价吗?”他们可以在卖出旅行支票时,定出比花旗、美国银行、巴克莱等所有银行都高的价格,同时还能收到溢价。而与此同时,其他所有人都在担心美国运通会关门歇业。同样的道理,当他们真的开始推信用卡时,面对的是起步更早的大来俱乐部和卡特·布朗什。他们是后来者。但他们进来的时候,不仅没用低价策略,反而定了一个高于竞争对手的价格。这就在很大程度上说明了消费者对美国运通的感受。
BUFFETTWell I don't because A, I wouldn't be any good at it, and besides, I'm so late to the game. I am not learning new things well. I still don't know what to do with the phone, but I just recognize the fact that that you know you're going to have one, and your kids are going to want one, and and it is a terribly useful, I mean, it's incredibly useful. And you get something that's useful and offered worldwide, and where, to some extent, you're a little worried about maybe moving your photos from one system to another. All I had to do was go out to Nebraska Furniture Mart and talk to customers is what, that's what I did 60 years ago at American Express when they were looked at like they were done for on the salad oil scandal. And I went down to the Omaha National Bank, and I said, are you getting a premium for American Express tickets? They can sell their traveler's check for more than Citigroup, Bank of America, Barclays, everybody had and they were getting a premium at the same time, everybody else was worried about them getting in, getting out of business. And the same thing, when they actually started their card, they were going up against Diners Club and Carte Blanche, who had come first. And they came they came on later. And instead of coming in at a cut price, they came in at a price above the competition. That says a lot about how consumers felt about American Express.
贝基·奎克沃伦,我想问您一个关于经济的问题,因为美联储现在有点进退两难,正在试图弄清楚,它的那几项使命里,究竟更担心哪一个。是更担心通胀可能进一步抬头,还是更担心就业市场和——你知道——经济产出可能下滑?如果现在您坐在美联储的位置上,这两个问题哪一个最让您寝食难安?
QUICKWarren, let me ask you about the economy because the Fed is in a bit of a quandary right now, just trying to figure out which one of its mandates it's more worried about. Is it worried about inflation potentially rising more. Is it worried about the jobs market and, you know, potential decline in economic output? What, what of those two issues would worry you most if you were at the Fed right now?
巴菲特嗯,要是我在美联储,我一直会担心的一件事就是,你知道,美元是世界的储备货币。我是说,所以你有非常聪明的人、非常老练的人,美元看起来好像什么事都不会发生。我本人也不觉得它会出什么事。但如果真出了事,我、我可不想承担管理美联储的责任。
BUFFETTWell, if I were at the Fed, the thing I'd worry about always is, you know, you're the reserve currency of the world. I mean, so you've got very smart people, very sophisticated people, the American dollar looks like nothing could happen to it. I don't feel anything could happen to it. But if it does happen to it, I would, I would, I wouldn't want the responsibility of running the Fed.
贝基·奎克但我意思是——
QUICKBut what I mean—
巴菲特世界将依赖他们采取行动。上一次在 2007 年和 2008 年,国会基本上觉得他们比财政部长更懂行。所以他们第一次否决 TARP 的时候,真的把事情搞砸了。我的意思是,我认为现在人们更明白,美联储是可以印钱的。
BUFFETTThe world will be dependent on it doing it. And last time in 2007 and 08', you had Congress that essentially felt they knew more about it than Secretary Treasury. And so they really gummed things up when they when they turned on TARP the first time. And I mean, it was, I think now people better understand what, the Fed can print money.
贝基·奎克美联储可以印钞,而我们的总统特朗普总统希望看到美联储降息?如果你现在坐在那个位置上,你会降息吗?
QUICKThe Fed can print money, and we have a president, President Trump, who would like to see the Fed cut rates? Would you cut rates if you were there right now?
巴菲特我不知道我在那件事上能做什么。我是说,我认为杰伊·鲍威尔在疫情爆发时,他在 2020 年 3 月采取了行动,我认为如果当时他再等两三周,那将是一场灾难。一旦多米诺骨牌开始倒塌,它们就会接二连三地倒下,而且那条线比任何人想象的都要短,倒塌的速度也更快。我认为他做得完全正确,而且他采取的行动比沃尔克还要有力。你知道,我的意思是,他和沃尔克是我在美联储的两位英雄。
BUFFETTI don't know what, what I do there. I mean, I think that Jay Powell in when, when the epidemic broke out, I think he acted in March of 2020 and I think if he'd waited two or three weeks, it would have been a disaster. Once the dominoes start toppling, they just start toppling and, and, and, and that line is shorter than anybody thinks, and it topples faster. And I think he did exactly the right thing, and he, he did it even stronger than Volker did. You know, I mean, he, he and Volker are my heroes at the Fed.
贝基·奎克他们是不是把利率在低位维持得太久了?我是说,我觉得,他们没有担心通胀,还说通胀是暂时的?因为我觉得连鲍威尔自己都说过,他可能希望自己早点转向。
QUICKDid they keep rates low for too long? I mean, I think that's, as they didn't worry about inflation, as they said it was going to be transitory? Because I think even Powell himself said that he might wish he'd turned it sooner.
巴菲特嗯,我希望他们设一个零通胀目标。
BUFFETTWell, I wish they had a zero inflation target.
贝基·奎克没错。
QUICKRight.
巴菲特但是,我的意思是,一旦你开始说你要容忍 2% 的通胀,这个数字长期复利下来就会变得相当惊人。而且这等于在告诉人们,如果你的钱赚不到 2%,你就是在倒退。实际上,如果你还要缴税,你可能还得为这 2% 缴税。你知道,我不太喜欢这个目标值。但是——
BUFFETTBut, I mean, once you start saying you're going to tolerate 2 percent, that compounds pretty dramatically over time. And you're saying to people, if you're getting less than 2 percent on your money, you're going backwards. And, actually, if you pay tax, you may pay tax on the 2 percent. You know, I mean, I don't like that particular goal. But—
贝基·奎克那么,通货膨胀可能是您更担心的?我是说,格林斯潘、艾伦·格林斯潘一直这么说。
QUICKSo, inflation is maybe what you'd be more concerned about? I mean, that's what Greenspan, Alan Greenspan always said.
巴菲特是的。我会担心通胀。我真正最关心的,其实是银行的稳定性。
BUFFETTYes. I would be, I would care about inflation. I would compare what I really would care about is the stability of the banks.
贝基·奎克是的。
QUICKYes.
巴菲特我是说,银行系统在某些方面非常强大,在另一些方面又非常脆弱。摩根大通在最近几年的年报里说,他们每天要做 10 万亿美元的业务。这可是无担保业务。我敢说,他们知道自己在干什么。天底下没人比摩根大通更聪明——但我不希望——2008 年那段时间,我一天都不想碰任何无担保的东西。谁知道呢?谁都不靠谱。这个世界连接得太紧密了,大家都会恐慌。他们嘴上可能说不会,但真到事态严重的时候,你给那些最大的投行打电话,他们连电话都不接了。就算接了,他们也会说,10 块买,20 块卖,视情况而定。
BUFFETTI mean, the banking system, in some sense is very strong, in other sense, is very fragile. I mean, JPMorgan in the last couple annual reports reported doing $10 trillion of business per day. Now, that's an unsecured policy. Now, they know what they're doing. Believe me. I mean, there's nobody smarter than JP-- but I don't want -- I didn't want -- during the 2008 period, I didn't want anything unsecured, you know, out there for a day. I mean, who knew? Nobody was any good. You know, I mean, it, the world is very interconnected and everybody panics. I mean, it, you know, they may say they don't, but you can call the biggest investment banking firms and they say, well, they don't answer the phone even if things get bad enough. And if they do answer the phone, you know, they say 10 bid, 20 offered subject.
贝基·奎克没错。我是说,乔会谈到你提到的那天,道琼斯指数跌了 21%。我觉得他当时——他自己说的——把自己藏在桌子底下躲那些涌进来的电话。
QUICKYes. I mean, Joe will talk about that day that you mentioned in where the Dow was down 21 percent. I think he was, at that point, he said it himself. He was hiding under his desk for the calls that were coming in.
巴菲特是的。而且——
BUFFETTYes. And—
贝基·奎克因为当流动性消失时,它就彻底消失了——
QUICKBecause when liquidity disappears, it disappears—
巴菲特21%,那天真是个大日子,跌势根本止不住。当时大部分专业做市商——那时他们在市场稳定中分量更重——全垮了。我记得,他们跑去找银行说,别抽贷,懂吧?可他们本该持续做市的,人们就是不停地砸卖单,买卖价差越拉越宽。现在有了熔断机制,各种各样的措施。但人一旦害怕就是害怕。你要是在挤满人的戏院里喊一声“着火了”,所有人都会跑。话虽如此,跑得比别人快还是有好处,你懂吧,我可能会被踩死,你知道的,所以我会站到后面喊“大家冷静”,知道吧?但那是因为我跑不快。反过来,等人们回到戏院,那是一个一个地回来。他们知道不急着进去。可当人们恐慌时,他们就是恐慌。
BUFFETT21 percent and that was some day, and it just kept coming. And most of the specialist firms, which then counted for more in terms of the stability of the markets. They were broke. I mean, as I remember, they went around to their banks and said, just don't pull the loans, you know, but they, people, they were supposed to keep making markets, but people just kept hitting the bid and can widen the spread out. You got circuit breakers now, all kinds of things. But when people are scared, they're scared. And people, if you yell fire in a crowded theater, everybody runs. Still, it still pays to beat people to the door, you know, and I can get trampled, you know, so, I will stand back there and say everybody to stay calm, you know? But that's because I can't run fast. On the other hand, when people come back into the theater, they come in one at a time. They know they don't have to get into it. But when people panic, they panic.
贝基·奎克但我们现在应该担心的究竟是银行体系,还是影子银行体系,也就是当下的私人信贷?
QUICKBut is it the banking system we should be concerned about right now, or is it the shadow banking system, the private credit at this point?
巴菲特嗯,它们都是银行体系的一部分,因为彼此之间会相互影响,一家的麻烦会蔓延到另一家。你看 2008 年,就见识过这种情况。
BUFFETTWell, it's all parts of the banking system because they all affect each other and the troubles from one can spread over to another. And, well, you saw what happened, I mean, in 2008.
贝基·奎克但冒着可能——我不想让人觉得你是在评论眼下私人信贷市场的状况。你怎么看现在的私人信贷市场?有没有足够多令人担忧的问题,让你忧虑这可能引发一场危机蔓延——
QUICKBut at risk of potentially, I don't want people to say that you are commenting on what's happening in the private credit situation right now. What do you think of the private credit situation right now? Are there enough concerning issues there that you worry that it could cause a contagion—
巴菲特我认为我不知道。
BUFFETTI don't think I know.
贝基·奎克好。
QUICKOkay.
巴菲特我不认为我能知道具体会发生什么,但正因如此,我要为任何情况做好准备。所以我们始终会持有现金,持有国库券。我们不会持有货币市场基金,2008 年就没碰过。我们也不会持有商业票据。世上只有一样东西是法定货币。你知道,如果你持有国库券——我们不会持有长期国债。但每个星期一,财政部都必须发行国库券。只要他们需要卖出价值 X 百亿美元的国库券,他们完全可以印一些钱来完成,他们也确实会这么做。
BUFFETTI don't, I do not think I know what, but, therefore, I want to be prepared for anything, and, therefore, we will always have, we'll always have cash around and we'll have treasury bills. We won't have money market funds. We didn't have them in 2008. We won't have commercial paper in 2008. There's just one thing that's legal tender. And, you know, if you own treasury bills, and we have known, we don't own treasury bonds way out. I mean, but every Monday, the treasury has to sell bills. And as long as they got to sell, you know, X billions worth of bills, I mean, they kind of a, they can print some money to do it, and they'll do it.
贝基·奎克但我想明确一点,您不认为自己能摸清外面在发生什么。您手上捏着超过 3,500 亿美元的巨额现金,就放在那儿随时待命。倒不是您一定认为大事临头,只是时间越久——
QUICKBut just to put a fine point on it, you don't think you know what's happening out there. You've had this huge cash forward north of $350 billion. It's just there waiting for any time. It's not that you necessarily think that there's something on the horizon. It's just the longer time goes—
巴菲特哦,那是自然。不,我一直想拥有——
BUFFETTOh, sure. No, I always want to have—
贝基·奎克对。
QUICKYes.
巴菲特对。我从来不想因为别人觉得市场要涨了就去买任何东西。
BUFFETTYes. And I never want to buy anything just because people think the market is going up.
贝基·奎克是的。
QUICKYes.
巴菲特我的意思是,那种认为自己知道市场接下来会怎么走的想法,简直不可理喻。一个人向全世界大声兜售自己真正掌握的秘密——这就像,他在自家后院发现了金子,却跑到电视上说:“看,我家后院的金子就在这里。”明白吧?他们是在推销东西。
BUFFETTI mean, the idea that people think they know what the market's going to do is just crazy. I mean, the idea that they would shout out to the world, you know, that something they really knew, I mean, that's like saying if they had gold -- found gold in their backyard, they'd come on television and say, here's where the gold is in my backyard, you know? I mean, they're selling something.
贝基·奎克您是说,他们想让别人也跟进?
QUICKThey want other people to follow, you mean?
巴菲特嗯,他们知道有一种……我是说,美国和其他地方都有人——但你也看到了,人们有多好赌。从根本上讲,你拥有一座不可思议的大教堂,叫做美国经济体系。这是前无古人的存在。我是说,它是万殿之殿。但它旁边紧挨着一座赌场,人们可以在这两者之间来回穿梭。相信我,人们就是好赌。我是说,他们在市场中以对自己不利的赔率赌博。他们其实根本不需要赌——如果他们只是买入一只股票并持有个 50 年,如果买入的是一组股票,他们会做得很好。美国资本主义体系是奏效的,而跟庄家对赌是不会赢的。这事——就这么简单。但是,人们就是好赌。我是说……
BUFFETTWell, they know that there's a certain, I mean, there's people in the United States and other parts of the world, but you've seen how much they like to gamble. And, basically, you have this incredible cathedral called the American Economic System. Nobody's seen anything like it. I mean, it's the cathedral of all cathedrals. But attached to it is a casino and people can walk back and forth between the two. And believe me, people like to gamble. I mean, they gamble with the odds against them in the market. They can actually gamble if they -- well, they really aren't gambling if they do it, but, I mean, if they just buy a stock and sit for 50 years, if they got a group of them, they're going to do fine. I mean, the American capitalism system works and betting against the house does not work. I mean, it's just -- it's so simple. But, people like to gamble. I mean–
贝基·奎克您说的赌博,是指——
QUICKWhen you say gamble, are you talking–
巴菲特我的蜜月度在 1952 年。
BUFFETTI had my honeymoon in 1952.
贝基·奎克是的。
QUICKYes.
巴菲特我和苏茜开车经过拉斯维加斯——我们刚拿到我姑妈爱丽丝的车。一路开过去,我们经过了拉斯维加斯。我看到那些衣着光鲜的人,乘着喷气式飞机飞来。他们飞了好几个小时,花了大把钱,就为了去拉老虎机——玩那些数学上必输的游戏。我当时就想,这可是块宝地。我跟家里人说,我们会发财的。你想想看,智商很正常的人,却一窝蜂地去做傻事,而且他们真就这么做了,整个行业还建立在这个基础上。现在赌博合法化了,越是放开,人们就越爱玩。他们在股市里也是一样的德性。不过说实话,在股市里,至少他们只要老老实实拿着,长期期望值还是正面的。
BUFFETTWe went through Las – Susie and I. We just got my Aunt Alice's car. And we drove and we went through Las Vegas at the time. And I watched all these people who were dressed well and they'd flown on jets. They'd flown, you know, for many hours, spent much money and everything else to go and pull handles, you know, or do something that was mathematically dumb. And I thought, this is the land of opportunity. I told them we were going to get rich. I mean, how can you have people who have perfectly decent IQs rushing to do dumb things, which they do, and industries build on it. Now, it's become legalized and the more they open it up, the more people like to do it. They like to do it in the stock market. And actually in the stock market, at least they got a favorable expectancy if they just sit tight.
贝基·奎克没错。
QUICKRight.
巴菲特但他们当然坐不住,如果他们是赌徒的话。
BUFFETTBut they don't sit tight, of course, if they, if they're gamblers.
贝基·奎克所以,您不是……也就是说,您对预测市场、合法化的体育博彩、甚至日内交易都不感冒,这基本上是您的意思吧?
QUICKSo, you're not – so you're not a fan of prediction markets, of legalized sports gambling, even of day trading, is that basically what you're saying?
巴菲特嗯,我觉得,我觉得这东西一旦开了口子,你就别想收住。各州发现他们大概能用 60 美分抵 1 美元的效果来解决财政问题,或者类似的比例——每个州的制度可能不一样。我小时候,有个州是合法的,这东西在美国已经存在几百年了。但后来大家看到效果不错,其他地方也跟着搞起来。当然,富人特别喜欢它,因为他们不用掏钱。我的意思是,如果各州从那些确实在乎 1 美元价值的人那里收钱,那实际上就减轻了我或者其他富人的税负。这虽然不是直接的,但净效果就是这样。所以我不喜欢那些坑人的东西——我不喜欢。尤其不喜欢政府来当推手。我觉得政府不应该玩这套——我不认为政府的职能就是愚弄老百姓。
BUFFETTWell, I don't think, I don't think you can stop it once you open it up, and once the states found out that they could pay about 60 cents on the dollar, or something like that, whatever they may have different systems for different states. There was one state it was legal in when I was a kid, and we've been around for hundreds of years. But then once people saw how that was working, other places took it up. And of course, rich people love it because they don't have to pay. I mean, to the extent that the states raise money from people who that what the dollar really means something to them, actually relieves the taxes on me or other rich people. I mean, it's not direct. I mean it, but it's, it's the net effect. So I don't like things that make a sucker out of people. I don't like them. I particularly don't like them when the government sponsors them. I don't think the government should play its I don't think the function of the government is to play its people for suckers.
贝基·奎克我父亲一直说,彩票是对愚蠢的赌博征税,一回事吗?
QUICKMy dad has always said the lottery is a tax on the stupid gambling, same thing?
巴菲特这是对愚蠢行为征税。但我不恨那些做蠢事的人。不,我真的不恨。我是说,作为人类,你在某种程度上也身不由己——天性如此,不知怎的,这种特质就刻在了人的骨子里。但当民选政府决定要靠这类行为牟利时,我就很不喜欢。我尤其觉得这相当 cynical(玩世不恭)。我认为政府不该玩世不恭。我是说,这——
BUFFETTIt's a tax. It's a tax on stupidity. But it's, it's, but I'm not mad at the people that are stupid. No, I really am not. I mean, you can't help it, to some extent, if you're human beings, you're geared that way when somehow, you know, it's developed within the humans. I don't like it when the government that they elect decides they're going to profit off that sort of activity. And I particularly, I think it's kind of cynical. I don't think, I don't think you should have a cynical government. I mean it's—
贝基·奎克沃伦,让我换个话题,问问你对现在中东发生的事情有什么看法。
QUICKWarren, let me let me shift gears and ask a little bit about what you think that is happening, that's happening about what's happening in the Middle East right now.
巴菲特什么事情怎么了?
BUFFETTWhat's happening with what?
贝基·奎克中东那边现在是什么情况?
QUICKWhat's happening in the Middle East?
沃伦·巴菲特哦。
BUFFETTOh.
贝基·奎克这个问题有很多角度可以切入,不如我们先从它对原油和能源行业意味着什么说起?伯克希尔拥有一家公用事业公司。油价上涨对它有什么影响?
QUICKThere's a lot of ways we could go with this, but why don't we start with just what it means for crude oil and energy in particular? Berkshire owns a utility company. What do these higher prices mean?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,这指的是我们持有的两个石油头寸——雪佛龙和西方石油——
BUFFETTWell, it, it means the two oil positions we have, Chevron and Occidental—
贝基·奎克是的。
QUICKYeah.
沃伦·巴菲特会大涨。但这不代表我能到处预测接下来会发生什么。我不知道那边明天会怎样。
BUFFETTGo up a lot. But that doesn't mean I can go around predicting what will happen next. I don't know what's going to happen tomorrow over there.
贝基·奎克对。您长期参与核倡议项目,我想您至今仍在为其提供资金。而且我知道,您在慈善事业中的首要事项就是核问题。
QUICKYeah. You for a long time were involved with the nuclear initiative. I think still are funding that. And I know your very first priority in philanthropy was the nuclear problem.
沃伦·巴菲特我认为这才是关键。这么说吧——我上学那会儿,上小学的时候,老师告诉我们太阳将在 45 亿年后熄灭。
BUFFETTI think it's the problem. I think, it -- well, I'll put it this way. When I was -- when I went to school, grammar school, they told me the sun was going to burn out in 4.5 billion years.
贝基·奎克嗯。
QUICKYeah.
沃伦·巴菲特我当时挺看得开的。我的意思是,那我能接受。可现在,有九个拥核国了,其中还包括北朝鲜的那位。我是说,肯定会出点事的。当年只有两家拥核的时候,我们就怕得要命。而且肯尼迪和赫鲁晓夫那会儿,我们的领导人确实相当理智。你们懂的,不是那种靠不住的人。于是,导弹船掉头了,可那时人们都躲在课桌底下。我是说,就两家拥核而已。想想看,北朝鲜有了,伊朗还想搞,你是什么感觉。我是说,这——我也没有答案。我是说,我们在 1938 年甚至 1939 年做了正确的事。你们可以去查查,网上到处都是。那是史上最重要的一封信。利奥·西拉德没法把消息传给罗斯福。他是著名的核物理学家,很厉害,人也风趣。但他知道,要是爱因斯坦在那封信上签名,信就能送到罗斯福手里。他总算让爱因斯坦签了。那封信发出时,比德军开进波兰早了一个月。我并不觉得罗斯福比我更懂铀-235。我是说,可他明白,要是爱因斯坦签了字,他就得当回事。有意思的是,当然,他这么做是怕德国人先搞出来。结果,这东西却用在了日本人身上。但问题在于,我们一直没学会如何跟它共存。打那以后,到现在已经 80 年了。我们有过很多次千钧一发的时刻。我是说,我们有几次误把训练带放进去,差点让总统采取了行动。这种事确实发生过。我是说,地球现在的预期寿命绝对到不了 500 年。我小时候,地球还有 45 亿年的寿命,可我们却不得不搞出这东西。我不责怪任何人。我父亲当年是国会议员,他也会投票支持。胜利日那天,人人都在欢庆。我是说,这——这东西一旦造出来,就已经没法撤回了。
BUFFETTI took that pretty philosophically. I mean, I could handle that. And now, you've got nine countries, including, you know, a guy in North Korea. I mean, and there will be, something will happen. And we worried enormously about it when there were two. And we had perfectly, we had really pretty sane leaders in Kennedy and Khrushchev. You know, I mean, you were not dealing with unstable people or anything like that. And. You know, the ships turned around, but people were hiding under their desks with two. I mean, just think how you feel with North Korea having it and Iran wanting to get it. I mean, it -- it is -- and I don't have an answer for that. I mean, we did the right thing in 1938 even or 1939. You can go look at it. It's all over the Internet. The most important letter ever written. And Leo Szilard could not get the message to. He was a famous nuclear physicist. Terrific one. Very funny too. And he couldn't get the message to Roosevelt, but he knew if Einstein signed the letter, that it would get there, and he finally got Einstein to sign the letter. And that letter was a month before the Germans started rolling into Poland. And I don't think Roosevelt understood U-235 any better than I do. I mean, you know, but he knew if Einstein signed it, he better do something. And the funny thing is, of course, he was doing it because he was worried about the Germans getting it. And it was actually used on the Japanese. But it, we, we haven't learned to live with it. Now, we've been -- we've gone 80 years since then. We've had a lot of close calls. I mean, we've had training tapes put in there that that almost got the president to do something. They've had them. I mean, there is no way that the planet has an expectancy of 500 years now when it was 4.5 billion when I was a kid and we had to do it. I'm not faulting anybody. My dad was in Congress. He would have voted for it. I mean, everybody rejoiced on VJ day. You know, I mean, it -- it -- but there was no way we could undo it.
贝基·奎克嗯,我觉得如今的问题在于,妮基·黑莉就在你们之前刚上过《财经论谈》(Squawk Box)。她当时说,她认为总统现在就应该进入伊朗,找到那里的浓缩铀。这个立场颇具争议。
QUICKWell, I think the question becomes today, Nikki Haley was just on "Squawk Box" right before you. And she was saying she thinks the president should go in and find the enriched uranium in Iran right now. And that's a controversial position.
沃伦·巴菲特这个立场是有争议,但如果我是美国总统,我会设法用某种方式去处理。我不想当美国总统,因为我不想担那份责任。抱歉,我有一次曾问过一位总统。我说,要是苏联已经发射了导弹,它们已经在天上飞了,而我们的政策是“相互确保摧毁”,你会告诉战略空军司令部,放出我们的导弹吗——明知道这样做并不会改变什么,我是说,这样做只会再杀死千千万万的人,并且让大气层遭受超级污染,谁知道接下来会发生什么?我是说,而现在我们面对的是——
BUFFETTIt's a controversial but I would be, I would be for one way or another, if I were president of the United States. I don't want to be president United States, because I don't want that. Sorry, I, I one time asked one president. I said, you know, if, if the Soviets had launched, though they already were in the air and our policy was mutually assured destruction, would you have told Strategic Air Command, unleash ours knowing that it wasn't going to, I mean, it was going to just kill millions and millions and millions more people and add to a super polluted atmosphere that who knows what is going to happen? I mean, it, and now we have—
贝基·奎克他怎么回答?
QUICKWhat was the answer?
沃伦·巴菲特怎么回答?嗯,这位总统说,他说,“我在任时每一天都在想这个问题。”因为半夜会有某个重量级人物突然找上门来——
BUFFETTThe answer? Well, a, the, this president said, he said, "I've thought about that every day." Because some major shows up at midnight—
贝基·奎克嗯。
QUICKYeah.
沃伦·巴菲特然后说,我们有确凿证据。这不是——这不是北极上空的野鹅。这不是被误放进去的训练录像带。我们知道他们的导弹已经在天上了,您有 10 分钟时间做决定。总统先生,我该向战略空军司令部(SAC)下达什么命令?我们要不要发射我们的导弹?我以前曾在战略空军司令部咨询委员会任职,不过信不信由你,那主要是出于政治目的,他们往委员会里安插人,真的纯粹是因为他们总想要更多经费。他们就是盘算着如果……我也不怪他们。
BUFFETTAnd says, we have incontrovertible. This is not -- this is not geese above the North Pole. This is not a training tape that got put in by mistake. We know they're in the air and you've got 10 minutes to make a decision. Mr. President, what do I tell SAC to do? Do we unleash ours? And I used to be on the SAC advisory board, but believe it or not, the, but that was for political purposes as they put people on that truly, because they were always looking for more money. And they just figured if. And I don't blame them.
贝基·奎克可总统到底怎么说?他给出了什么答案?
QUICKBut what did the president say? What was his answer?
沃伦·巴菲特他说,我在任期间每一天都在想这件事。他是位前总统。
BUFFETTHe said, I thought about it every day during the time I was in office. He was an ex-president.
贝基·奎克但他并没有就他——
QUICKBut did not give an answer on what he—
沃伦·巴菲特他其实说出了答案,我认为是“会”。我会告诉他发射。那就是美利坚合众国的政策。
BUFFETTActually said, I think the answer is yes. I would tell him to do it. That is the policy of the United States of America.
贝基·奎克对。那么,如果您今天在总统的位置上,或者您今天在给总统当顾问,关于追查伊朗浓缩铀的问题,您会提出什么建议?
QUICKYeah. So if you were the president today or if you were advising the president today, what would you say about going after the enriched uranium in Iran?
沃伦·巴菲特我想说,迟早的事。未来 100 年里,也许 200 年,谁知道呢?但无论如何,总会发生什么事,让那东西被用上。而我们现在无法收回已经部署的。如果你觉得当年我们和苏联、赫鲁晓夫对峙时已经很危险了——赫鲁晓夫其实是个相当理性的人,肯尼迪大概也一样——那就等着看吧,等我们不得不和那些,你知道的,会因为一个发型就批评别人的朝鲜家伙打交道时。我是说,或者我该说,最危险的情况其实是,某个手按在按钮上的人,他自己快死了,或者面临极大的难堪,他想“要是我完蛋了……”
BUFFETTI would say that one way or another. In the next 100 years, maybe it's 200 years, who knows? But one way or another, something will happen that cause it to be used. And we can't take what's out there now. And if you thought it was dangerous with the Soviets and us with Khrushchev, who was perfectly rational guy, probably Kennedy, just wait until we, wait until we're dealing with, you know, the guy in North Korea that criticizes haircut or something, I mean, or, or I would say the most dangerous thing is actually somebody that's got their hand on the switch who is dying themselves or is facing enormous embarrassment if he figures if I go ever—
贝基·奎克如果你被逼到墙角,对,如果你被逼到墙角。
QUICKIf you're cornered, yeah, if you're cornered.
沃伦·巴菲特是的。
BUFFETTYeah.
贝基·奎克所以那仍然算得上是最重要的事情之一——
QUICKSo that's still rises to the level of one of the most important and—
巴菲特没错。
BUFFETTIt is.
贝基·奎克是啊。
QUICKYeah.
巴菲特我只是不知道答案罢了。但我确实知道——如果伊朗拥有核弹,局势会比他们没有更艰难。
BUFFETTIt's just that I don't know the answer for it. But I do know that the -- it'll be more difficult if Iran has the bomb than if they don't.
贝基·奎克是啊。沃伦,我再换个话题。从 2006 年开始捐钱算起,你已经捐出了将近 600 亿美元。其中绝大部分给了比尔·盖茨基金会。对于爱泼斯坦文件中那些与比尔·盖茨相关的邮件,你怎么看?
QUICKYeah. Warren, I'm going to shift topics again. You have given away almost $60 billion since 2006 when you first started giving money away. The bulk of that has gone to the Bill Gates Foundation. What have you thought about all the emails in the Epstein files related to Bill Gates?
巴菲特嗯,我就不说我对它们怎么想了,特别是跟比尔·盖茨有关的那些事。但我要说,人心真是令人震惊,简直让我难以置信。我是说,这家伙是个已被定罪的骗子,一个轰动一时的诈骗高手,他坑掉的人比例太高了。我是说,不管他找到的是他们的弱点,可能跟性有关,可能跟权力有关,可能跟别的什么有关。我真想不出有谁能干出这种事来。然后,当然,所有这些人物都觉得,等他死了事情就过去了,可你知道,他们,他们,他们之前基本上都在撒谎。但我是说,你知道,这——
BUFFETTWell, I won't say what I thought about them, particularly related to Bill Gates, but I would say it's astounding to me how human people are. I mean, it, here you had a guy that was a convicted guy, a sensational con man, and the percentage of people that he knocked off. I mean, whether it was, he found their weakness, it might have been sex. It might be power, it might be, whatever it might be. And I don't see how anybody could have pulled that off. And then, and of course, all these figures think that it's going when he dies that are, you know, they've, they've, they basically lied about it before. But I mean, you know, it—
贝基·奎克你是说,他们对自己与爱泼斯坦的交往撒了谎?
QUICKLied about their associations with Epstein, you mean?
巴菲特嗯,我是说,你知道,他们用各种方式给自己找了理由,但如今这一切都被翻出来了,当然。我只是庆幸,那家伙从没在奥马哈停留过。我是说,或者庆幸我没住在纽约。要是我住纽约,参加过什么派对,我想我肯定会在某个场合跟他扯上关系。总有人找我拍合影,我一般都会答应。我跟学生合影惯了,老是拍那种搞怪的合照——比如我偷掏别人口袋、向某位女士求婚之类的。你知道,我谢天谢地,我从来没——从来没靠近过那家伙。而且我在 2003 年就看过了《名利场》上的那篇文章——
BUFFETTWell, I mean, you know, they've rationalized it one way or another, but and now it's all getting opened up and, of course. I'm just I'm so happy the guy didn't, that he didn't stop in Omaha ever. I mean, or that I didn't live in New York. If I lived in New York, I had some party. I would have been at some thing I think. And more people always are asking to take a picture, and I usually do. I'm so used to doing it with students. I always do these gag pictures where I'm picking some guy's pocket or proposing to some woman or some thing and -- and, you know, I thank heavens, I, I never, and I never came near the guy. And I had read the article in "Vanity Fair" in 2003 that—
贝基·奎克就是那篇勾勒出他究竟是一个多么神秘、多么奇特的人物的文章。
QUICKThe one that laid out who, what a mysterious and strange figure he was.
巴菲特就有人担心诽谤官司而言,那篇文章已经是走得相当远了。
BUFFETTIt was as far as somebody was worried about libel suits goes.
贝基·奎克嗯,那篇文章确实让他听起来像个骗子,毫无疑问。是啊,我最近按你的建议读了那篇文章。
QUICKWell, it made him sound like a fraud, for sure. Yeah, I've read that article recently with your suggestion.
巴菲特有趣的是,你知道,他是在贝尔斯登起步的——
BUFFETTAnd the interesting thing is, you know, he got his start at Bear Stearns—
贝基·奎克是的。
QUICKYeah.
巴菲特那些人认识他。他们知道他在各种事情上都对他撒谎。而且……艾斯·格林伯格(Ace Greenberg)是我的好朋友。不过,吉米·凯恩(Jimmy Cayne)当时可能已经在实际管理公司了,我不太确定。但艾斯·格林伯格总是在找——他雇了我一个朋友的儿子,专门给他当“探子”。那家伙的工作就是翻找任何老旧或大件的东西,可能是交易员塞在办公桌里的——我是说,他总在提防别人。但不知怎么的,艾斯的女儿,我猜,曾经和爱泼斯坦约会过之类的事。那人绝对是史上最顶级的骗子。这里——
BUFFETTAnd they knew him. They knew he lied to him on all kinds of things. And. And Ace Greenberg was a good friend of mine. Well, Jimmy Cayne may have been actually running the firm by then. I'm not sure. But Ace Greenberg always was looking for -- he had a guy that the son of a friend of mine that he hired just to be his ferret. His -- and his job was to look for anything that was old or large that traders might have stuck in their desk or -- I mean, he was worried about, about people. But somehow. Ace's daughter, I guess, was dated by -- dating Epstein or something. And that guy must have been the con man of all time. There's—
贝基·奎克但骗子是一回事。贩卖未成年人又是另一回事。
QUICKBut it's one thing to be a con man. It's another thing to be trafficking minors.
巴菲特绝——没错。
BUFFETTAbsolutely.
贝基·奎克性交易。
QUICKSexual prostitution.
巴菲特还得被起诉。尽管他设法上下运作,摆平了那个……你懂的,不管当时的司法部长是谁,反正他靠这样那样的门路,确实没在牢里待多久——但他骗起人来真有一套。我是说,天晓得他给了那些人什么好处才能得手,他谁都骗得了。
BUFFETTAnd be prosecuted. And even though he managed to jiggle his way through that thing with, you know, whoever the attorney general was, then it one way or another, he did not really spend much time in his cell, you know, and -- but he had a way of conning everybody. I mean, he probably who knows what he offered the guys, you know, to do that, he could con anybody.
贝基·奎克你有没有担心——
QUICKHave you been concerned –
巴菲特他找到了他们的弱点。
BUFFETTHe found their weakness.
贝基·奎克你有没有担心——首先,你从爱泼斯坦的文件里了解到了什么吗?
QUICKHave you been concerned – first of all, have you learned things from the Epstein files?
巴菲特当然。我自己读不了那些文件,因为我视力实在太差了,但我有个朋友念给我听。让我特别震惊的是,居然有人能当骗子当到这么成功。不过你知道,P.T. 巴纳姆很多年前就说过,每分钟都有傻瓜出生。男人嘛,有人好色,有人想逃税,不管是什么,他总能找到他们的弱点,然后有本事利用这些弱点来榨取他们。但这不能成为另一头那些人的借口。我是说——
BUFFETTSure. I can't read them myself because my eyesight are so bad, but I've got a friend that reads them for me, and it is astounding to me that anybody could be that successful as a con person. But you know, PT Barnum said it many years ago too, there's one born every minute. And, you know, men are going to like sex, and some, some of them are going to like not paying taxes, and whatever it was, he figured out what their weakness was, and then he was — had the ability to prey on them. But that doesn't excuse the people on the other end. I mean –
贝基·奎克对。那……这会带来什么后果——
QUICKRight. What – what are the consequences for what –
巴菲特在我看来,结果很可能跟 1969 年那件事一样——约翰逊政府下台后,福特基金会雇了一大批从政府离职的人,这事会演变成……得等到国会觉得对基金会下手,比不对基金会下手更划算才行。而基金会资金充裕,我是说,钱有的是,而且基金会在华盛顿影响力也大得多。这挺气人的。我们回头可以再聊这个,不过 1969 年那会儿,我想是威尔伯·米尔斯(Wilbur Mills)担任筹款委员会主席。我记不太清具体是怎么发生的了,但那是最后一次对基金会能做什么进行重大修订——
BUFFETTThe consequences are very likely to be, in my view, same thing that happened back in 1969 when the Johnson administration left and the Ford Foundation hired a whole bunch of people that were let go from government, and it'll take – it takes something where Congress feels that they're better off going after the foundations than not. And foundations have got plenty, I mean, money, and foundations have plenty of more power in Washington. It's kind of irritating. We can talk about that later, maybe, but in '69 I think Wilbur Mills was as head of the Ways and Means Committee. I don't remember exactly how it came about, but that was the last – that was a big revision of what foundations could do –
贝基·奎克好的。
QUICKOkay.
巴菲特我认为这次也会产生同样的效果。
BUFFETTI think this is going to have the same effect.
贝基·奎克从爱泼斯坦案的文件里,你读到的或别人读给你听的内容,有没有让你对自己捐给盖茨基金会的钱感到担心?无论是你过去捐的钱,还是你可能……
QUICKIs there anything that you've read or been read from the Epstein files that concerns you about the money that you donate to the Gates Foundation? Money you've given in the past or money that you may have –
巴菲特有太多事情我过去都不知道。这一点非常清楚。
BUFFETTThere was a lot I didn't know. It was very clear.
贝基·奎克比如什么?
QUICKLike what?
巴菲特嗯,我当年不懂的东西多了。我是说,基金会有三位受托人——
BUFFETTWell, I didn't know a lot of things. I mean, there were three trustees of the foundation –
贝基·奎克你、比尔和梅琳达。
QUICKYou, Bill and Melinda.
巴菲特我就是三人之一。我们一年只见一次面。我不会问那些追根究底的问题。我是说,你知道,如果我需要问那么多问题,当初根本就不会把钱投进去。不过——顺便说一句,那个基金会的首席执行官不一定每次都到场,但他并不是实质掌舵人。实际上,到最后都是比尔在管理基金会。而且——但我学到了一点——我想是在离婚事件发生的时候,因为一个月之后,不到一个月,我就辞职了。
BUFFETTAnd I was one of the three. Now, we only met once a year. I did not ask probing questions. I mean, you know, if I had – if I thought I had to ask probing questions, I wouldn't want to put the money into it in the first place. But – and incidentally, the guy, the CEO of the foundation, wasn't necessarily present during all these things, but he's not the real CEO. I mean, in the end, Bill ran the foundation. And it was – but I learned – I guess when the divorce action happened, because I resigned a month later, less than a month later, I think.
贝基·奎克那你从中学到了什么——
QUICKWhat did you learn then that –
巴菲特我认识到自己当时根本不清楚事态有多严重——但这并不必然意味着正在发生什么可怕的事,只是我确实对情况一无所知。我们没——而且我也没有主动去问那些问题。我是说,作为基金会董事,2006 年我做出那个决定时,觉得在基金会会议上插手那么多婚姻问题之类的事情并不合适。但他们就这么一路开下去,讨论的全是些鸡毛蒜皮的小事,然后他们聘用了几个堪称祸害的人,你知道的,我从没见过那些人。那个家伙——
BUFFETTI learned that I didn't know what was going on, and – which didn't mean something terrible was going on, necessarily, but I certainly didn't know what was going on. We didn't – and I didn't ask the questions, either, though. I mean in terms of being on the foundation board, or it was – I made a decision on it in 2006 and and I didn't think butting into so many marital problems or anything like that was particularly appropriate at foundation meetings. But they went through and they talked about all these little things that didn't mean anything and and then they hired a few people that are really bad news, you know, I never met any of those people. That guy –
贝基·奎克你说的是鲍里斯·尼科利奇?
QUICKYou're talking about Boris Nikolic?
巴菲特是啊。我甚至都不太清楚具体是指什么——
BUFFETTYeah. I don't even know what exactly –
贝基·奎克他在爱泼斯坦案卷中被提到了,而且位置相当显眼。
QUICKHe was mentioned pretty prominently in the Epstein files.
巴菲特我从没听说过他。到目前为止,从会议进程来看,这家伙看上去简直是个糟糕透顶的雇员。不过,我也雇过糟糕的人,但我们后来都把他们清走了。
BUFFETTI never heard of him. That guy, so far in the proceedings, I mean, he looks like a terrible guy to employ. Now, I've employed terrible people, but we've gotten rid of them.
贝基·奎克鲍里斯·尼科利奇最后在基金会也被清走了。你跟比尔·盖茨聊过这些事吗?
QUICKBoris Nikolic eventually was gotten rid of at the foundation as well. Have you talked to Bill Gates about any of this?
巴菲特没有。没有。自从整件事公布以来,我根本没跟他谈过。我不想知道那些当下的内情。我可能会被传唤出庭作证。
BUFFETTI haven't. No. I haven't talked to him at all since the whole thing was unveiled. I don't want to be in a position where I know things at the moment. I could get called as a witness.
贝基·奎克你会继续向盖茨基金会捐款吗?从 2006 年起,你每年 6 月都会捐。
QUICKAre you going to continue to give money to the Gates Foundation? You have every June since 2006.
巴菲特嗯,是的,其实我同意每年都做这件事,但大部分时候都是在 6 月 30 号左右做的,我会等着看看情况怎么发展。股票又不会跑掉,又不是说我要把它转成别的什么东西,或者会失去它。但我会等等,看看我在学些什么。这么多年来,我确实学到了一些以前不知道的东西,而且我之前也不清楚婚姻这事会怎么演变。我是说,我就是不知道。你有时候可以猜测某段时间里人们关系不太融洽,但每一段婚姻都是这样。总会有那么些时候,他们对配偶感到恼火,或者类似的情况。所以无论如何,我就等着看吧。还有那三百多万页,或者说大概那么多页——我是说,真是太惊人了。
BUFFETTWell, yeah, actually, I agreed to do it every year, but I've done it around June 30 most of the time, and I'll wait and see what unfolds. The stock isn't going anyplace. It isn't like I'm giving it all the way to something else or won't have it. But I'll wait and see what I'm learning. I've learned things I didn't know about something for all these years, and I didn't know how the marital thing would play out. I mean, I just didn't know about it. You can guess sometimes that people aren't getting along at a given time, but that's true in every marriage. There are times when they get irritated with their spouse, or something like that. So in any event, I'll just wait and see. And there's three and a half million, or whatever it is pages – I mean, it is astounding.
贝基·奎克在爱泼斯坦的文件里。
QUICKIn the Epstein files.
巴菲特爱泼斯坦的档案。里面有很多被涂黑的内容。显然,任何跟爱泼斯坦有瓜葛的人——我是说——他们肯定都痛苦不堪,大概从他们知道这些东西要被公开的那一刻起就是这样了,而且现在他们再也压不住了。我是说,这事已经闹得太大了。
BUFFETTThe Epstein files. And there's a lot of redacted stuff. And obviously, anybody that was involved in Epstein, I mean, they've been miserable, probably from the moment they learned that things are going to get released, and they can't bury it now. I mean, it's gone too far.
贝基·奎克有没有这种情况——我猜你陷入了一种进退两难的境地,如果不……
QUICKAre there situations – I guess you're caught in a position where if you don't –
巴菲特——会把它捐出去。这是肯定的。
BUFFETT-- to give it away. That's for sure.
贝基·奎克没错。如果你不给盖茨基金会捐钱,是不是就违背了自己当初的承诺?可如果你捐了,又等于在认可已经发生的那些行为?你也许赞同,也许不——也许你还没有——我们目前可能还没完全了解所有情况——
QUICKRight. If you don't give the money to the Gates Foundation, are you in violation of the pledge that you made? Or if you do give the money, are you condoning the behavior that has taken place? That you may or may not – that you may not have – we haven't learned everything potentially yet about –
巴菲特这就是为什么我想学习。我今天不需要做这个决定,而且确实还没做。但我一直在阅读各种材料。我是说,我听说——实际上有人替我读这些东西。爱泼斯坦那件事发生时,我一直有点震惊。但这揭示了人性,以及其程度——无论是涉及金钱、性还是别的什么。这家伙找到了人们的弱点,而那些人确实做出了行为。如果问我个人看法,我不认为比尔跟那些女孩、那些岛屿之类的事有任何关系。但我在阅读这些材料时,确实学到了关于各种事情的东西,它正在一个接一个地毁掉人。我是说,令我震惊的是,人们竟然能坏到这种程度——人们总是会做出一些事。存在两厢情愿的性行为和各种情况,但这家伙——一天里哪有那么多小时?我是说,三百五十万条通讯记录,还有背后所有的谋划——他找到了人们的弱点,天啊,他可太知道怎么利用这些弱点了。显然他利用了那个叫鲍里斯什么的人,还利用了高盛的那个女人,我是说,简直无处不在。我从来没见过这样的事——我敢肯定,一旦你拿掉那些被涂黑的部分,你还会了解到更多。
BUFFETTThat's why I want to learn. I don't have to make that decision today, and I haven't made it today. But I do keep reading things. I mean, I heard – somebody reads them for me, actually. I was always astounded somewhat by the Epstein thing when it was taking place. But what this reveals about humans and the degree, whether – whether it's money or whether it's sex or whatever. I mean, this guy found people's weaknesses, but they did do things. I don't think, if you ask me my personal opinion, I don't think Bill had anything to do with girls or the island or anything like that. But I am learning things about all kinds of stuff when I read this, and it is ruining one person after another. I mean, it's just astounding to me how bad – people always do things. I mean, there's consensual sex and all kinds of things, but, this guy – how many hours are there in the day? I mean, three and a half million, or whatever, his communications and all the thinking that goes into – and he found people's weaknesses, and boy, did he know how to use it. And he used, he obviously used this guy, Boris somebody. And he used the woman at Goldman Sachs, I mean, just every place you looked. I've never seen anything – and I'm sure that once you get rid of the redacting a few things, you're going to learn more.
贝基·奎克所以你在等着看,文件里还会再冒出什么来——
QUICKSo you're waiting to hear what else comes from the files –
巴菲特没问题。
BUFFETTSure.
贝基·奎克——那可能来自国会听证会吗?
QUICK– potentially what comes from congressional hearings?
巴菲特是的。我觉得他们可能也会修改关于基金会的规定。
BUFFETTYeah. I think they may change the law on foundations too.
贝基·奎克你可能觉得——抱歉,你认为——
QUICKYou may think – I'm sorry, you think –
巴菲特我认为可能性相当大,但国会动作没那么快,所以——我只是认为,国会对公众愤怒什么就回应什么,而公众会对爱泼斯坦事件感到愤怒。
BUFFETTI think, I think there's a good chance, but Congress doesn't act that fast, so – but I just think that Congress reacts to whatever the public's mad about, and they'll be mad about the Epstein thing.
贝基·奎克但你曾说,你认为他们可能因此修改关于基金会的法律。
QUICKBut you said that you think they could change the law on foundations as a result.
巴菲特哦,是的。我认为可能会举行重大的基金会听证会。
BUFFETTOh yeah. I think there could be major foundation hearings.
贝基·奎克那针对基金会、会剥夺它们免税资格的那些变革呢?
QUICKAnd the changes that would go after the foundations that would do what strip their tax status?
巴菲特国会会想显得他们正在做点什么,而基金会过去的游说工作要多得多。我的意思是,曾经有过——不,实际上根本没什么值得一提的反基金会游说,基金会就在那儿,大家都往华盛顿跑。
BUFFETTCongress will want to look like they're doing something about it, and foundations have done a lot more lobbying in the past. I mean, there's been – hasn't been any anti foundation lobbying to speak of, and there's been foundations are there, and everybody goes to Washington.
贝基·奎克您——
QUICKDo you —
巴菲特让我惊叹的是——不,华盛顿确实变得极为重要了。钱是从那里发放的,规则也是从那里制定的。
BUFFETTIt's astounding to me how – no, Washington it's really become important. That's where the money is doled out. That's where the rules are doled out.
贝基·奎克您认为基金会,总体而言,各类基金会工作做得好吗?您认为盖茨基金会做得不错吗?
QUICKDo you think the foundation, foundations in general, have done good work? Do you think the Gates Foundation has done good work?
巴菲特噢,我肯定它们做过有价值的工作。要是没做过有价值的工作,它们也不会存续到今天。问题是,游戏规则会不会变——它们能做什么,以及它们的税会不会变——你看看哈佛就懂了,我的意思是,公众舆论一旦转向,国会就会转向。事情就是这么运作的。
BUFFETTOh, I'm sure they've done good work. I don't think they'd be around if they hadn't done some good work. The question is whether the rules get changed in terms of what they can do, or their taxation gets – I mean, look at Harvard. I mean, once public opinion changes, Congress changes. It's just the way it works.
贝基·奎克你把钱给了盖茨基金会,现在后悔吗?
QUICKAre you sorry you've given the money to the Gates Foundation?
巴菲特不。不后悔。
BUFFETTNo. No.
贝基·奎克所以你对钱已经不在你这儿这件事挺坦然的——
QUICKSo you're happy that it's gone –
巴菲特是的,不过我的意思是,但我显然希望某些事没有发生过。但我并不——这又不是说他们在为自己偷钱或诸如此类的事情。我是说,比尔倾注了他的心血,梅琳达也倾注了心血,现在运营这家基金会的那位也是。他是个我自己都会愿意聘用的人,你明白我的意思——
BUFFETTYeah, well I mean, but I wish that certain things hadn't happened, obviously. But I don't – but it isn't like they're stealing money for themselves or anything like that. I mean, Bill pours his efforts into it. Melinda poured her efforts into it, the present guy that runs it does. He's a guy who I'd hire myself, you know, I mean it –
贝基·奎克马克·苏兹曼(Mark Suzman)。
QUICKMark Suzman.
巴菲特对。而且,我觉得他实际上是他们有过的最好的 CEO,你知道,我并不羡慕他那个职位。但我也认为,我会等一等看结果。他们现在手头有 960 亿美元。
BUFFETTYeah. And, I think he's actually the best CEO they've had, you know, and I don't envy his job. But I also think that I'll wait and see. They've got $96 billion that they're sitting on now
贝基·奎克是在基金会账上。
QUICKAt the foundation.
巴菲特在基金会账上。没哪个组织有这样的资金规模。
BUFFETTAt the foundation. Nobody's got anything like that.
贝基·奎克不过比尔也说过,他计划在未来 20 年内把这笔钱相当快地花出去。
QUICKAlthough Bill has also said that he plans to spend that money down pretty rapidly over the next 20 years.
巴菲特嗯,他手头有的是自己的钱,可以再往里添。我不知道将来会怎么样。
BUFFETTWell, he's got plenty of his own money. Add to it. I don't know what will happen.
贝基·奎克还有一件事——你和比尔、梅琳达还共同发起了“捐赠誓言”,号召全球亿万富豪签署承诺,同意在有生之年或去世后捐出至少一半财富。你成功让数百人签了约——
QUICKThere's been – you and Bill and Melinda also created the giving pledge, where you got billionaires around the world to sign up and agree that they would give away at least half of their wealth, either while they were living or upon their death. And you got hundreds of people to sign up to that –
巴菲特两百多人。
BUFFETT200 and something.
贝基·奎克是的,大约 250 人签了约。
QUICKYeah, 250-some people to sign up to that.
巴菲特能拿到这么多承诺,我自己都感到惊讶。比尔做了一件值得称赞的事——他把这个理念推广到了海外。从某种程度来说,你们正在改变整个社会的行为模式。美国现在——它部分靠法律、还有“两党支持”之类的因素做到了这一点,但美国本身就是一个实验,不仅体现在其他许多方面,而且在私人慈善领域也是如此,在全球各地都撬开了一些小小的口子——我认为这在过去几百上千年来几乎是不可想象的。所以,他把精力投进任何事情,那种能量都让人难以置信。我嘛,我太懒了,我不会满世界跑。我只是觉得,我们启动了一件好事,而且我相信所有加入“捐赠誓言”的人,给出的都不会少于他们原本会捐的数额。我们没有告诉他们该捐给谁,也没有告诉他们什么时候捐。我们没搞什么非法承诺,但确实得到了响应。
BUFFETTIt's astounded me that we've gotten that many. What Bill has done, on which I give him credit for, is he's taken it abroad. And you're changing the behavior of societies to some small degree. The United States is – now, they've gotten it partly by laws, the favor of two and everything else. But United States is an experiment, not only in a lot of other ways, but also actually in terms of private philanthropy and those made small little cracks in that around the world, which I think only defies centuries and centuries of behavior. So his, the energy he brings to anything he's involved in is incredible. I mean, I'm too lazy. I'm not going to go around the world. I just, you know, I feel we launched something good, and I feel that there is no one that's a member of the giving pledge that is giving less than they would have given otherwise. Now we never told them what to give it to. We never told them when they should give it. We didn't make an illegal pledge, I mean, but we really got response on that.
贝基·奎克最近有些文章写到某些领域出现了反弹,尤其是科技界的亿万富豪,比如彼得·蒂尔(Peter Thiel)、马克·安德森(Marc Andreessen),他们说他们不喜欢“捐赠誓言”,并认为这件事很“woke”(过度政治正确)。
QUICKThere have been some articles written recently about the backlash in certain sectors, technology billionaires, in particular, Peter Thiel, Marc Andreessen, who have said that they don't like the giving pledge, and they think it's woke.
巴菲特嗯,如果他们不喜欢,那也不必非得留在里面——他们可以退出。反正这又不是什么有法律约束力的承诺。富人之间互相看不顺眼的原因可能有很多,谁知道会出什么事,但我要说的是——我敢赌一大笔钱,绝不会有人因为这个倡议而比原本捐得更少。而且有相当一部分人——不是特别多,但也不是个可以忽略不计的数字——要么提前捐了,要么捐得更多。大家对我提出的最大疑虑,通常来自他们的母亲,就是她们不想成为那些炫耀“这家多有钱”文章的靶子,这也不能怪她们。我是说,她们担心——什么都可以担心。但还是有很多人加入了。有一个人甚至加入,就因为他说,我只想跟贝基·奎克吃顿午饭。我说,我觉得——但他显然没兑现。
BUFFETTWell, if they don't like it, they don't have to belong to the – they can retire from it. They didn't make a legal pledge anyway. There may be any one of a lot of reasons why rich people don't like other rich people, or who knows what happens, but I would say this, that – I just would bet a lot of money that nobody is giving less because of it than they would have otherwise given. And a fair number of people, not huge numbers – but not insignificant numbers either – are giving it earlier or giving more. The biggest objection that people would raise with me, and it usually was by the mother, was that they just didn't want to become targets of articles about how rich they were, and can't blame them for that. I mean, they're worried about – they can be worried about anything. But a lot of people joined. One guy even joined, because he said, all I wanted is to have lunch with Becky Quick. I said, I think – and he didn't follow through, apparently.
贝基·奎克没有。他从来没联系过我。
QUICKNo. I never heard from him.
巴菲特但我的意思是——如果你身边聚了一堆亿万富翁,你就会遇到形形色色特立独行的人。倒不是说请人吃饭这个想法有多特别。我知道我该把那份材料给你们看,但当时我们得到的反响确实让我感到惊讶。我们刚开始只是打电话,找的都是最显然的人选。当然,新增人数后来明显下降了。而且,我们实实在在地说过,我们不去评判这些人的钱是怎么来的。我们不会去审查,如果他们的财富来自酒类生意,那又怎样——关键是他们现在拿钱做什么。你明白吗?我们说的就这一件事:看在老天的份上,把一半捐出去吧。而这件事,跟那些守着百年家族农场的人——人家本来打算传给子女、做各种安排——完全是两码事,跟我这种靠股票赚了钱的人情况也不一样。我是说,如果我像某些非常富有的农民一样,拥有大片土地,一辈子都在为子女积累家业,再把隔壁的农场也买下来,一切都为了传给下一代,那做出这个决定在情感上会非常艰难。所以,我对“捐赠誓言”的感觉相当好。
BUFFETTBut I mean that – if you get a lot of billionaires, you get a lot of peculiar people. Not that that's peculiar. I know I should present you with that, but it was amazing to me the reception we got. And we just started dialing and we hit the obvious. I mean, obviously it's fallen off – the rate of additions. And obviously, you know, we made – we genuinely said we're not judging the people. We're not to go to the judge whether if they made their money liquor, we weren't, you know, what counts is what they're doing with it. You know? I mean, that's all we're talking about, is for God's sakes, you know, give away half of it. And that's so different from up for a family that's got a family farm for 100 years, and they planned on giving it to their kids and all kinds of things, than it is for some guy like me that just made it in stocks, you know. I mean, it would be a big, emotional decision if I were like a bunch of – got certain very rich farmers, you know, that own lots of acreage, and they've been building it their whole life for their – to turn over to their kids, then they buy the farm next to them and everything. So I think I feel good about the giving pledge.
贝基·奎克你之前说过,关于爱泼斯坦文件里曝出的那些事,你一件都没跟比尔聊过。你们现在还是好朋友吗?
QUICKYou said you haven't talked to Bill about any of the issues that have come out from the Epstein files. Are you still good friends with him?
巴菲特我们一起度过了很多美好时光,但他对我的照顾,恐怕比对其他任何人都要好。我是说,他安排旅行时会准备我喜欢吃的食物,哪怕在中国也能看到《华尔街日报》——他对我一直非常体贴。但在事情澄清之前,我觉得,多说无益。首先,我不想在压力下——我的记性已经不行了。我不想在宣誓状态下,试着回忆基金会过去 30 年或 20 年做的每一件事,诸如此类。这些事跟我没关系,我只是投了钱。但你可能要说:好吧,你失职了,你没尽到责任。可我是把钱捐给了其中一个孩子的基金会。我连他们捐了什么也从来不看。你懂的,我就是信任别人。我觉得我信任的都是很好的人,但我也能理解,如果一个人身边有像爱泼斯坦这样的人,他们就不想谈论这事,我也不会。而且,比尔愿意带我去——我非常感激这一点——他想让我见见爱泼斯坦,他本可以做一些事,那些事可能会毁了我的生活。如果他在股东大会后或某个时候对我说:“我要去纽约,你要不要一起来?有个挺有意思的家伙。”我可能就跟着去了。所以,我得感谢他没这么做。但你也不能抹掉已经发生的事。你也不能回避一个事实:基金会是一种很特别的东西,是我们国家相当认可的东西——我是说慈善扣除、捐赠人建议基金等等。这些东西大概每隔 30 到 40 年就该重新审视一下。基金会做的,其实就是游说,说白了就是“别管我们”。
BUFFETTWe've had great times together, but he's treated me better than I think he's probably treated anybody else. I mean, he's arranged trips that arrange for the kinds of foods I like, to the Wall Street Journal being in China, or what I mean, he's been terribly thoughtful with me throughout this but I think until it gets cleared up, I don't, I just don't think it makes sense to do a lot of talking. For one thing, I don't want to be under, my memory is no good anymore. I don't want to be under oath in terms of trying to remember everything over 30 years or 20 years of foundations done, or anything like that. I didn't have anything to do with it, except I put, put the money in. But as you may say, you can, you can say, well, you're a derelict and not in not doing it. But I'm giving money to one of my children's foundations. I've never looked at what they give, either. You know, I mean, I just, I trust people. And I think I've trusted very good people, but I think I can see where if somebody just a guy like Epstein involved in their life, they don't want to talk about it, you know, I wouldn't. I mean, it's been very useful to me that Bill ever said, come on along. I want you to meet Epstein so he he could have, he could have done things that that would have been screwed up my life. I'd have gone along with him if he'd said to me after the annual meeting or sometime and he said, you know, I'm going to New York. Why don't you fly along? There's this interesting guy or something. I probably would have gone, you know. And so, I got him to thank for not doing that. But you can't get away from what happened either. And you can't get away from the fact that foundations are a peculiar there's something that our country has really endorsed, I mean charitable deductions, and donor advised funds and all of that sort of thing. And that's worth looking at, probably more often than every 30 or 40 years. Foundation is just what they do is they lobby just basically leave us alone.
贝基·奎克我们节目还剩 87 秒。还有什么别的想法想补充吗?我觉得我们覆盖面还不够广。
QUICKWe have 87 seconds left in the show. Any other thought that you'd like to throw in because I don't think we've covered enough ground.
巴菲特嗯,我觉得有意思的事情在于,你拥有美国这个举世瞩目的奇迹,而与此同时,又有数量极其庞大的一群人——他们和你我一样,都是活生生的人。你知道,他们可能没有你我这样的智商或其他条件,但我认为贫富差距过于悬殊了,可同时我又觉得这套体制确实行之有效。那么,你到底如何通过一个基本上分裂成两派、无论议题是什么都会自动互相投票反对的实体,去解决所有这些问题呢。我是说——
BUFFETTWell, I think the interesting thing is, you've got America, which is the wonder of the world, and at the same time, you've got a great number of people that they're just as much human beings as you or I. And you know, they may not, they may not have the same IQ or anything like that, but I think the differentials are too great, but I also think it's worked. So how do you actually solve all that through an entity which is basically broken down into two sides that sort of automatically vote against each other no matter what the issue is. I mean.
贝基·奎克你指的是民主党人和共和党人?
QUICKYou mean Democrats and Republicans?
巴菲特对,民主党人和共和党人。我是说——
BUFFETTYeah, Democrats and Republicans. I mean—
贝基·奎克我们还剩 20 秒。
QUICKWe have 20 seconds.
巴菲特党派对立比以往任何时候都严重,而我们却比以往任何时候都繁荣,其程度超乎所有人的想象。所以你必须承认,资本主义确实管用,但它仍然需要——看来我们得结束了。
BUFFETTIt's become more partisan than ever, and we're more prosperous than ever, and than anybody ever dreamt. So you have to say, capitalism's worked, but it still needs, I guess we're finished.
贝基·奎克得结束了,还有三秒。您是民主党人还是共和党人?
QUICKWe're finished, three seconds. Are you a Democrat or a Republican?
巴菲特两者都当过。1960 年大选,我实际上是以共和党人的身份出现在候选人名单上的,但我父亲是非常坚定的共和党人。后来我转到了民主党那边,而现在的我是无党派人士。
BUFFETTI've been both, and I was actually on the ballot as a Republican in 1960 but my dad was very Republican. I went to the Democratic side, and now I'm an independent.
贝基·奎克那我们就在这里收尾吧,这点悬念足够留到下次跟你聊的时候了。沃伦,非常感谢你抽出宝贵的时间。
QUICKWe're going to leave it on that, and that's enough of a tease till the next time we talk with you, but Warren, thank you very much for your time.
巴菲特聊得很有意思。
BUFFETTIt's a lot of fun.
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