1980 年致股东信

致股东信 · 原文约 7144 词
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致伯克希尔·哈撒韦全体股东:

To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

1980 年,公司经营利润从 1979 年的 3600 万美元增至 4190 万美元,但期初净资产收益率(证券按成本计价)却从 18.6% 降至 17.8%。我们认为,后一个指标才是衡量单一年度管理层经济表现最恰当的标尺。不过,要正确使用这把标尺,还需理解诸多因素,包括会计政策、资产的历史账面价值、财务杠杆以及行业状况。

Operating earnings improved to $41.9 million in 1980 from $36.0 million in 1979, but return on beginning equity capital (with securities valued at cost) fell to 17.8% from 18.6%. We believe the latter yardstick to be the most appropriate measure of single-year managerial economic performance. Informed use of that yardstick, however, requires an understanding of many factors, including accounting policies, historical carrying values of assets, financial leverage, and industry conditions.

在评估我们的经济表现时,建议你特别留意两个因素:一个是正面的,在很大程度上是我们自身经营所独有的;另一个是负面的,普遍存在于一般公司业绩之中。先说好的一面。

In your evaluation of our economic performance, we suggest that two factors should receive your special attention - one of a positive nature peculiar, to a large extent, to our own operation, and one of a negative nature applicable to corporate performance generally. Let’s look at the bright side first.

非控股股权收益

Non-Controlled Ownership Earnings

当一家公司持有另一家公司的部分股权时,须从三大类会计方法中选取一种来处理该项权益。持有表决权股份的比例,在很大程度上决定了应采用哪一类会计原则。

When one company owns part of another company, appropriate accounting procedures pertaining to that ownership interest must be selected from one of three major categories. The percentage of voting stock that is owned, in large part, determines which category of accounting principles should be utilized.

公认会计原则要求,对持股超过 50% 的企业,其销售收入、费用、税金和盈利须全额合并报表(当然也有例外,比如我们过去那家银行子公司)。伯克希尔·哈撒韦持股 60% 的蓝筹印花即属此类。因此,蓝筹印花的全部收入与费用项目都足额计入伯克希尔的合并利润表,而其他股东在蓝筹印花净利润中所占的 40%,则以“少数股东权益”一项在表中扣除。

Generally accepted accounting principles require (subject to exceptions, naturally, as with our former bank subsidiary) full consolidation of sales, expenses, taxes, and earnings of business holdings more than 50% owned. Blue Chip Stamps, 60% owned by Berkshire Hathaway Inc., falls into this category. Therefore, all Blue Chip income and expense items are included in full in Berkshire’s Consolidated Statement of Earnings, with the 40% ownership interest of others in Blue Chip’s net earnings reflected in the Statement as a deduction for “minority interest”.

对另一类持股——持股 20% 至 50% 的公司(通常称为“被投资企业”)——其盈利通常也要全额计入,只是方式不同。这类公司的盈利(例如由伯克希尔控制、但仅持股 48% 的西科金融),通过股东利润表中的单行项目并入。与持股超过 50% 的情形不同,这里省去全部收入和费用明细,只按比例计入净利润。也就是说,如果 A 公司持有 B 公司三分之一股权,无论 B 是否分红,B 三分之一的盈利最终都会体现在 A 的盈利里。在这两类情形下,还都涉及公司间税收和购买价格调整方面的一些修正,具体留待日后再讲。(我们知道你已经等不及了。)

Full inclusion of underlying earnings from another class of holdings, companies owned 20% to 50% (usually called “investees”), also normally occurs. Earnings from such companies - for example, Wesco Financial, controlled by Berkshire but only 48% owned - are included via a one-line entry in the owner’s Statement of Earnings. Unlike the over-50% category, all items of revenue and expense are omitted; just the proportional share of net income is included. Thus, if Corporation A owns one-third of Corporation B, one-third of B’s earnings, whether or not distributed by B, will end up in A’s earnings. There are some modifications, both in this and the over-50% category, for intercorporate taxes and purchase price adjustments, the explanation of which we will save for a later day. (We know you can hardly wait.)

最后一类,是持有另一家公司表决权证券不足 20% 的持股。这时会计准则规定,持股方只能把从中收到的股息计入自己的盈利,未分配的盈利一概不计。这样一来,假如 1980 年我们持有 X 公司 10% 的股份、X 当年盈利 1000 万美元,那么(暂且不计公司间股息那点小额税负)我们的利润表所反映的,要么是:(a)X 若把 1000 万美元全额分红,我们计入 100 万美元;(b)X 若只派发 50%、即 500 万美元股息,我们计入 50 万美元;(c)X 若把盈利全部再投资,则计入零。

Finally come holdings representing less than 20% ownership of another corporation’s voting securities. In these cases, accounting rules dictate that the owning companies include in their earnings only dividends received from such holdings. Undistributed earnings are ignored. Thus, should we own 10% of Corporation X with earnings of $10 million in 1980, we would report in our earnings (ignoring relatively minor taxes on intercorporate dividends) either (a) $1 million if X declared the full $10 million in dividends; (b) $500,000 if X paid out 50%, or $5 million, in dividends; or (c) zero if X reinvested all earnings.

之所以给你上这么一堂简短、也过于简化的会计课,是因为伯克希尔把资源集中在保险业,其资产也就相应集中在上述第三类(持股不足 20%)公司里。这些公司大多只拿出盈利中很小一部分派息,这意味着它们当期盈利能力中只有很小一块被记入我们的当期经营利润。然而,尽管我们报告的经营利润只反映收到的股息,我们的经济利益却是取决于它们的盈利,而非它们的股息。

We impose this short - and over-simplified - course in accounting upon you because Berkshire’s concentration of resources in the insurance field produces a corresponding concentration of its assets in companies in that third (less than 20% owned) category. Many of these companies pay out relatively small proportions of their earnings in dividends. This means that only a small proportion of their current earning power is recorded in our own current operating earnings. But, while our reported operating earnings reflect only the dividends received from such companies, our economic well-being is determined by their earnings, not their dividends.

近年来,随着保险业务日益兴旺、证券市场又在普通股上给出格外诱人的机会,我们在这第三类公司里的持股大幅增加。持股大增,加上这些部分持有公司自身盈利的增长,带来一个不寻常的结果:去年这些公司留下的、本属于“我们的”那部分盈利(即未以股息形式付给我们的部分),竟超过了伯克希尔·哈撒韦报告的全年经营利润总额。于是,按传统会计,我们这座盈利“冰山”露出水面、清晰可见的还不到一半。这种情形在企业界相当罕见;而在我们这里,恐怕会反复出现。

Our holdings in this third category of companies have increased dramatically in recent years as our insurance business has prospered and as securities markets have presented particularly attractive opportunities in the common stock area. The large increase in such holdings, plus the growth of earnings experienced by those partially-owned companies, has produced an unusual result; the part of “our” earnings that these companies retained last year (the part not paid to us in dividends) exceeded the total reported annual operating earnings of Berkshire Hathaway. Thus, conventional accounting only allows less than half of our earnings “iceberg” to appear above the surface, in plain view. Within the corporate world such a result is quite rare; in our case it is likely to be recurring.

我们对盈利真相的判断,与公认会计原则略有出入,在高通胀且通胀率变幻莫测的环境里尤其如此。(当然,批评这些会计规则远比改进它们容易,其中固有的难题实在巨大。)我们曾百分之百拥有一些企业,尽管在会计意义上对其处置保有完全的控制权,它们报告的盈利对我们而言也远不值账面上的每一美元。(那种“控制”是理论上的。除非把全部盈利再投进去,否则现有资产就会大幅缩水;但这些再投入的盈利,又根本无望赚到接近市场水平的资本回报。)我们也曾只持有另一些企业的小部分股份,可这些企业的再投资机会非同寻常,其留存收益对我们的经济价值远超账面上的每一美元。

Our own analysis of earnings reality differs somewhat from generally accepted accounting principles, particularly when those principles must be applied in a world of high and uncertain rates of inflation. (But it’s much easier to criticize than to improve such accounting rules. The inherent problems are monumental.) We have owned 100% of businesses whose reported earnings were not worth close to 100 cents on the dollar to us even though, in an accounting sense, we totally controlled their disposition. (The “control” was theoretical. Unless we reinvested all earnings, massive deterioration in the value of assets already in place would occur. But those reinvested earnings had no prospect of earning anything close to a market return on capital.) We have also owned small fractions of businesses with extraordinary reinvestment possibilities whose retained earnings had an economic value to us far in excess of 100 cents on the dollar.

留存收益对伯克希尔·哈撒韦的价值,并不取决于我们在其所属企业中持有 100%、50%、20% 还是 1% 的股份,而是取决于这些收益被派上什么用场、以及由此产生的后续盈利水平。无论用途是由我们决定,还是由那些并非我们聘用、只是我们选择与之共事的管理层决定,道理都一样。(要紧的是行为本身,不是行事的人。)而且这份价值,丝毫不因这些留存收益是否被计入我们自己的报告经营利润而受影响。如果一棵树长在一片我们持有部分权益的森林里,即便我们没在财务报表上记下它的生长,我们照样拥有这棵树的一部分。

The value to Berkshire Hathaway of retained earnings is not determined by whether we own 100%, 50%, 20% or 1% of the businesses in which they reside. Rather, the value of those retained earnings is determined by the use to which they are put and the subsequent level of earnings produced by that usage. This is true whether we determine the usage, or whether managers we did not hire - but did elect to join - determine that usage. (It’s the act that counts, not the actors.) And the value is in no way affected by the inclusion or non-inclusion of those retained earnings in our own reported operating earnings. If a tree grows in a forest partially owned by us, but we don’t record the growth in our financial statements, we still own part of the tree.

提醒一句,我们这个看法并不合常规。但我们宁愿让一笔在会计上不算我们功劳的盈利,被我们持股 10%、且非我们亲自聘用的一家公司的管理层拿去善加运用;也不愿让一笔在会计上算作我们功劳的盈利,被另一批管理层——哪怕这批人就是我们自己——投进前景更可疑的项目里。

Our view, we warn you, is non-conventional. But we would rather have earnings for which we did not get accounting credit put to good use in a 10%-owned company by a management we did not personally hire, than have earnings for which we did get credit put into projects of more dubious potential by another management - even if we are that management.

(这里实在忍不住插播一小段广告。在我们持股的公司中,有一种运用留存收益的做法我们向来格外欢迎,那就是回购自家股份。道理很简单:如果一家好企业在市场上的售价远低于其内在价值,那么以这样的便宜价大幅增厚全体股东的权益,还有什么资本运用比这更确定无疑、更划算?企业并购市场竞争激烈,一家公司要买下另一家企业的全部所有权,几乎注定要付出十足、往往还不止十足的价钱。可证券市场的拍卖特性,却常常让经营出色的公司有机会买回自己一部分业务,其代价还不到通过协商收购另一家企业获取同等盈利能力所需价格的一半。)

(We can’t resist pausing here for a short commercial. One usage of retained earnings we often greet with special enthusiasm when practiced by companies in which we have an investment interest is repurchase of their own shares. The reasoning is simple: if a fine business is selling in the market place for far less than intrinsic value, what more certain or more profitable utilization of capital can there be than significant enlargement of the interests of all owners at that bargain price? The competitive nature of corporate acquisition activity almost guarantees the payment of a full - frequently more than full price when a company buys the entire ownership of another enterprise. But the auction nature of security markets often allows finely-run companies the opportunity to purchase portions of their own businesses at a price under 50% of that needed to acquire the same earning power through the negotiated acquisition of another enterprise.)

长期公司业绩

Long-Term Corporate Results

如前所述,我们评估单一年度业绩,是通过比较经营利润与股东权益(证券按成本计价)。但衡量长期业绩的标尺,则把已实现和未实现的资本利得或损失全都算进去。我们的长期净资产收益率,一直明显高于各年度收益率的平均值。造就这一喜人结果的主因很简单:前面说过的那些非控股持股所留存的收益,已经转化为了市值的增长。

As we have noted, we evaluate single-year corporate performance by comparing operating earnings to shareholders’ equity with securities valued at cost. Our long-term yardstick of performance, however, includes all capital gains or losses, realized or unrealized. We continue to achieve a long-term return on equity that considerably exceeds the average of our yearly returns. The major factor causing this pleasant result is a simple one: the retained earnings of those non-controlled holdings we discussed earlier have been translated into gains in market value.

当然,留存收益转化为市值升值的过程远非均匀(有些年份还会反向),时点难以预料,也不太可能精准地一美元对一美元兑现。为一家公司的一批股票付出愚蠢的买价,足以抹掉这家公司十年留存收益的效果。但只要买价合理,市场几乎迟早会以某种方式认可留存收益的积累。你甚至时不时还能得到一点锦上添花——市值升值远超买入后的留存收益。

Of course, this translation of retained earnings into market price appreciation is highly uneven (it goes in reverse some years), unpredictable as to timing, and unlikely to materialize on a precise dollar-for-dollar basis. And a silly purchase price for a block of stock in a corporation can negate the effects of a decade of earnings retention by that corporation. But when purchase prices are sensible, some long-term market recognition of the accumulation of retained earnings almost certainly will occur. Periodically you even will receive some frosting on the cake, with market appreciation far exceeding post-purchase retained earnings.

在现任管理层接手伯克希尔以来的十六年里,以保险公司所持股票市值计的每股账面价值从 19.46 美元增至 400.80 美元,年复合增长率 20.5%。(你其实做得更好:过去十年,人体内矿物质的价值以每年 22% 的速度复合增长。)更令人欣慰的是,我们是在犯下诸多错误之后才取得这份成绩的。那张清单太令人心痛又太长,无法在此详述。但它清楚地表明:哪怕管理层三振出局的次数不少,你照样能打出一个还算相对体面的综合击球率。

In the sixteen years since present management assumed responsibility for Berkshire, book value per share with insurance-held equities valued at market has increased from $19.46 to $400.80, or 20.5% compounded annually. (You’ve done better: the value of the mineral content in the human body compounded at 22% annually during the past decade.) It is encouraging, moreover, to realize that our record was achieved despite many mistakes. The list is too painful and lengthy to detail here. But it clearly shows that a reasonably competitive corporate batting average can be achieved in spite of a lot of managerial strikeouts.

我们的保险公司将继续大举投资那些经营良好、处境优越的非控股公司,而这些公司往往只将利润中的很小一部分用作股息派发。遵循这一策略,我们预计长期回报将继续高于每年从报告经营利润中得出的回报。对这一判断的信心可以轻松量化:假如我们把手中持有的股票全部卖出,换成长期免税债券,我们报告的经营利润会立即每年增加超过 3000 万美元。这种调换对我们毫无吸引力。

Our insurance companies will continue to make large investments in well-run, favorably-situated, non-controlled companies that very often will pay out in dividends only small proportions of their earnings. Following this policy, we would expect our long-term returns to continue to exceed the returns derived annually from reported operating earnings. Our confidence in this belief can easily be quantified: if we were to sell the equities that we hold and replace them with long-term tax-free bonds, our reported operating earnings would rise immediately by over $30 million annually. Such a shift tempts us not at all.

好消息就说到这里。

So much for the good news.

所有者的实际所得

Results for Owners

遗憾的是,公司财务报表所报告的盈利,已不再是决定你——所有者——能否获得任何真实盈利的首要变量。因为只有购买力的增长才代表投资的真实收益。假使你(a)放弃十个汉堡去购买一项投资;(b)收到的股息在税后仅能购买两个汉堡;且(c)卖出所持份额后,税后所得仅能购买八个汉堡,那么(d)无论这项投资以美元计升值多少,你都没有从中获得任何真实收入。你或许觉得自己更富了,但吃起来并不会更阔气。

Unfortunately, earnings reported in corporate financial statements are no longer the dominant variable that determines whether there are any real earnings for you, the owner. For only gains in purchasing power represent real earnings on investment. If you (a) forego ten hamburgers to purchase an investment; (b) receive dividends which, after tax, buy two hamburgers; and (c) receive, upon sale of your holdings, after-tax proceeds that will buy eight hamburgers, then (d) you have had no real income from your investment, no matter how much it appreciated in dollars. You may feel richer, but you won’t eat richer.

高通胀率形成了一种对资本的税收,使得大量企业投资变得不明智——至少以能否为个人所有者带来正的真实投资回报这一标准来衡量是如此。这道"门槛收益率"——即公司必须达到的、能为其个人所有者创造任何真实回报的净资产收益率——近年来已急剧抬高。如今,普通的纳税投资者就好像踏上了一条向下运行的自动扶梯并拼命往上跑,而扶梯的下降速度已快到让他寸步难行。

High rates of inflation create a tax on capital that makes much corporate investment unwise - at least if measured by the criterion of a positive real investment return to owners. This “hurdle rate” the return on equity that must be achieved by a corporation in order to produce any real return for its individual owners - has increased dramatically in recent years. The average tax-paying investor is now running up a down escalator whose pace has accelerated to the point where his upward progress is nil.

举个例子:在一个通胀率为 12% 的世界里,一家净资产收益率为 20% 的企业(很少有企业能持续做到这一点),若将全部盈利分给适用 50% 税率的个人,实际上是在侵蚀他们的真实资本,而非使之增值。(这 20% 的一半将用于缴纳所得税;剩下的 10% 留给企业所有者,但其购买力仅为年初的 98%——尽管他们一分钱"盈利"都还没花。)对这一税率档的投资者而言,如果换成物价稳定且企业资本回报率只有区区几个百分点的情形,他们的处境实际上会更好。

For example, in a world of 12% inflation a business earning 20% on equity (which very few manage consistently to do) and distributing it all to individuals in the 50% bracket is chewing up their real capital, not enhancing it. (Half of the 20% will go for income tax; the remaining 10% leaves the owners of the business with only 98% of the purchasing power they possessed at the start of the year - even though they have not spent a penny of their “earnings”). The investors in this bracket would actually be better off with a combination of stable prices and corporate earnings on equity capital of only a few per cent.

纯粹的显性所得税,若无任何隐性通胀税相伴,绝不可能将正的企业回报变成负的所有者回报。(即便对股息和资本利得均课以 90% 的个人所得税率,在零通胀时所有者仍能剩下一些真实收入。)但通胀税并不受报告收入的限制。即便通胀率与我们近年来所经历的水平相去不远,也能将大多数公司所实现的正回报,转变为所有所有者——包括那些无需缴纳显性税的人——的负回报。(例如,若通胀率达到 16%,那 60% 以上回报率低于此数的美国公司,其所有者的真实回报将为负——哪怕对股息和资本利得所征收的所得税已经完全取消。)

Explicit income taxes alone, unaccompanied by any implicit inflation tax, never can turn a positive corporate return into a negative owner return. (Even if there were 90% personal income tax rates on both dividends and capital gains, some real income would be left for the owner at a zero inflation rate.) But the inflation tax is not limited by reported income. Inflation rates not far from those recently experienced can turn the level of positive returns achieved by a majority of corporations into negative returns for all owners, including those not required to pay explicit taxes. (For example, if inflation reached 16%, owners of the 60% plus of corporate America earning less than this rate of return would be realizing a negative real return - even if income taxes on dividends and capital gains were eliminated.)

当然,这两种税是并存且相互作用的,因为显性税是按名义收入而非真实收入征收的。因此,若以不变美元衡量股东回报,你其实所得的是亏损,而你却仍要为这笔名义上的"收入"缴纳所得税。

Of course, the two forms of taxation co-exist and interact since explicit taxes are levied on nominal, not real, income. Thus you pay income taxes on what would be deficits if returns to stockholders were measured in constant dollars.

在当前的通胀水平下,我们认为,处于中高税率档的个人所有者(区别于养老基金、慈善机构等免税实体),不应指望从美国普通公司身上获取任何真实的长期回报,即便他们将所有收到的股息在税后全部用于再投资。公司的平均净资产收益率,恰好被两股力量叠加起来完全抵消:一是通胀对资本课征的隐性税,二是对股息以及由留存收益所创造的价值增值部分课征的显性税。

At present inflation rates, we believe individual owners in medium or high tax brackets (as distinguished from tax-free entities such as pension funds, eleemosynary institutions, etc.) should expect no real long-term return from the average American corporation, even though these individuals reinvest the entire after-tax proceeds from all dividends they receive. The average return on equity of corporations is fully offset by the combination of the implicit tax on capital levied by inflation and the explicit taxes levied both on dividends and gains in value produced by retained earnings.

正如我们去年所说的,伯克希尔在公司层面拿不出应对这一难题的解方。(明年我们也还会再说一遍。)通胀并不会改善我们的净资产收益率。

As we said last year, Berkshire has no corporate solution to the problem. (We’ll say it again next year, too.) Inflation does not improve our return on equity.

人人都在寻求抵御通胀的隔热层,那就是指数化。但绝大部分企业资本(尽管存在重要的例外)甚至未能实现部分指数化。当然,如果一家公司将大量收益"存下来"——即再投资而非作为股息派发——那么每股收益和每股股息通常会上升。但即便没有通胀,这一点也同样成立。同样地,一个节俭的工薪族即便从未加薪,也能实现总收入的稳步逐年增长——只要他愿意只拿工资的一半作为现金(他的工资"股息"),并持续把另一半(他的"留存收益")存入储蓄账户。然而,无论是这位高储蓄的工薪族,还是那家股息逐年增长而净资产收益率却原地踏步的高储蓄公司的股东,都并没有真正实现指数化。

Indexing is the insulation that all seek against inflation. But the great bulk (although there are important exceptions) of corporate capital is not even partially indexed. Of course, earnings and dividends per share usually will rise if significant earnings are “saved” by a corporation; i.e., reinvested instead of paid as dividends. But that would be true without inflation. A thrifty wage earner, likewise, could achieve regular annual increases in his total income without ever getting a pay increase - if he were willing to take only half of his paycheck in cash (his wage “dividend”) and consistently add the other half (his “retained earnings”) to a savings account. Neither this high- saving wage earner nor the stockholder in a high-saving corporation whose annual dividend rate increases while its rate of return on equity remains flat is truly indexed.

资本要真正实现指数化,净资产收益率必须上升,也就是说,企业盈利必须能够随着物价水平的上涨而持续同比例增长,且无需为此追加任何所占用的资本——包括运营资本。(靠增加投资换来的盈利增长不算数。)只有极少数企业能接近展现出这种能力。而伯克希尔·哈撒韦并不在其列。

For capital to be truly indexed, return on equity must rise, i.e., business earnings consistently must increase in proportion to the increase in the price level without any need for the business to add to capital - including working capital - employed. (Increased earnings produced by increased investment don’t count.) Only a few businesses come close to exhibiting this ability. And Berkshire Hathaway isn’t one of them.

当然,我们奉行将盈利用于再投资以实现增长、多元化和强健实力的公司政策,这连带产生了将眼下强加在所有者身上的显性税降至最低的效果。但在日复一日中,你仍将承受隐性的通胀税,而且当你想把在伯克希尔的投资转换成另一种投资形式或用于消费时,你同样将面临显性税。

We, of course, have a corporate policy of reinvesting earnings for growth, diversity and strength, which has the incidental effect of minimizing the current imposition of explicit taxes on our owners. However, on a day-by-day basis, you will be subjected to the implicit inflation tax, and when you wish to transfer your investment in Berkshire into another form of investment, or into consumption, you also will face explicit taxes.

收益来源

Sources of Earnings

下表列出了伯克希尔报告收益的各项来源。伯克希尔持有蓝筹印花约 60% 的股份,蓝筹印花又持有西科金融公司 80% 的股份。表中既列出各业务实体的总收益,也列出伯克希尔在其中所占的份额。凡归属于任一实体的重大资本利得与损失,都汇总在表底的“已实现证券利得”一项,不计入经营利润。我们在计算经营利润时,也剔除了出售 Mutual 储蓄银行分支机构的收益。这一点有别于我们经审计的财务报表——后者在计算“已实现投资收益前利润”时把该项目算了进去。

The table below shows the sources of Berkshire’s reported earnings. Berkshire owns about 60% of Blue Chip Stamps, which in turn owns 80% of Wesco Financial Corporation. The table shows aggregate earnings of the various business entities, as well as Berkshire’s share of those earnings. All of the significant capital gains and losses attributable to any of the business entities are aggregated in the realized securities gains figure at the bottom of the table, and are not included in operating earnings. Our calculation of operating earnings also excludes the gain from sale of Mutual’s branch offices. In this respect it differs from the presentation in our audited financial statements that includes this item in the calculation of “Earnings Before Realized Investment Gain”.

税前利润净利润(税后)
合计伯克希尔份额伯克希尔份额
(千美元)1980 19791980 19791980 1979
各实体总利润$ 85,945$ 68,632$ 70,146$ 56,427$ 53,122$ 42,817
经营利润:
保险集团:
承保$ 6,738$ 3,742$ 6,737$ 3,741$ 3,637$ 2,214
净投资收益30,93924,22430,92724,21625,60720,106
伯克希尔-旺贝克纺织(508)1,723(508)1,723202848
联合零售商店2,4402,7752,4402,7751,1691,280
喜诗糖果15,03112,7858,9587,5984,2123,448
《布法罗晚报》(2,805)(4,617)(1,672)(2,744)(816)(1,333)
蓝筹印花母公司7,6992,3974,5881,4253,0601,624
伊利诺伊国民银行5,3245,7475,2005,6144,7315,027
西科金融母公司2,9162,4131,3921,0981,044937
Mutual 储蓄银行5,81410,4472,7754,7511,9743,261
精密钢铁2,8333,2541,3521,480656723
债务利息(12,230)(8,248)(9,390)(5,860)(4,809)(2,900)
其他2,1701,3421,5909961,255753
经营利润总额$ 66,361$ 57,984$ 54,389$ 46,813$ 41,922$ 35,988
Mutual 储蓄银行 - 出售分支机构5,873--2,803--1,293--
已实现证券利得13,71110,64812,9549,6149,9076,829
各实体总利润$ 85,945$ 68,632$ 70,146$ 56,427$ 53,122$ 42,817
                                                                         Net Earnings
                                   Earnings Before Income Taxes            After Tax
                              --------------------------------------  ------------------
                                    Total          Berkshire Share     Berkshire Share
                              ------------------  ------------------  ------------------
(in thousands of dollars)       1980      1979      1980      1979      1980      1979
                              --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
Total Earnings - all entities $ 85,945  $ 68,632  $ 70,146  $ 56,427  $ 53,122  $ 42,817
                              ========  ========  ========  ========  ========  ========
Earnings from Operations:
  Insurance Group:
    Underwriting ............ $  6,738  $  3,742  $  6,737  $  3,741  $  3,637  $  2,214
    Net Investment Income ...   30,939    24,224    30,927    24,216    25,607    20,106
  Berkshire-Waumbec Textiles      (508)    1,723      (508)    1,723       202       848
  Associated Retail Stores ..    2,440     2,775     2,440     2,775     1,169     1,280
  See’s Candies .............   15,031    12,785     8,958     7,598     4,212     3,448
  Buffalo Evening News ......   (2,805)   (4,617)   (1,672)   (2,744)     (816)   (1,333)
  Blue Chip Stamps - Parent      7,699     2,397     4,588     1,425     3,060     1,624
  Illinois National Bank ....    5,324     5,747     5,200     5,614     4,731     5,027
  Wesco Financial - Parent ..    2,916     2,413     1,392     1,098     1,044       937
  Mutual Savings and Loan ...    5,814    10,447     2,775     4,751     1,974     3,261
  Precision Steel ...........    2,833     3,254     1,352     1,480       656       723
  Interest on Debt ..........  (12,230)   (8,248)   (9,390)   (5,860)   (4,809)   (2,900)
  Other .....................    2,170     1,342     1,590       996     1,255       753
                              --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
    Total Earnings from
       Operations ........... $ 66,361  $ 57,984  $ 54,389  $ 46,813  $ 41,922  $ 35,988
  Mutual Savings and Loan -
     sale of branches .......    5,873      --       2,803      --       1,293      --
Realized Securities Gain ....   13,711    10,648    12,954     9,614     9,907     6,829
                              --------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
Total Earnings - all entities $ 85,945  $ 68,632  $ 70,146  $ 56,427  $ 53,122  $ 42,817
                              ========  ========  ========  ========  ========  ========

蓝筹印花和西科都是上市公司,各有自己的信息披露义务。在本报告第 40 至 53 页,我们转载了两家公司主要高管的叙述性报告,其中讲述了 1980 年的经营情况。我们建议你细读,并特别留意 Louie Vincenti 和查理·芒格在重整 Mutual 储蓄银行上所做的出色工作。任何伯克希尔股东如需索取这两家公司之一的完整年报,可分别致函:蓝筹印花公司 Robert H. Bird 先生(加州洛杉矶东南大道 5801 号,邮编 90040),或西科金融公司 Bette Deckard 女士(加州帕萨迪纳市科罗拉多大道东 315 号,邮编 91109)。

Blue Chip Stamps and Wesco are public companies with reporting requirements of their own. On pages 40 to 53 of this report we have reproduced the narrative reports of the principal executives of both companies, in which they describe 1980 operations. We recommend a careful reading, and suggest that you particularly note the superb job done by Louie Vincenti and Charlie Munger in repositioning Mutual Savings and Loan. A copy of the full annual report of either company will be mailed to any Berkshire shareholder upon request to Mr. Robert H. Bird for Blue Chip Stamps, 5801 South Eastern Avenue, Los Angeles, California 90040, or to Mrs. Bette Deckard for Wesco Financial Corporation, 315 East Colorado Boulevard, Pasadena, California 91109.

如前所述,我们不控股的那些公司的未分配收益,如今其分量已完全不亚于上表所列的报告经营利润。至于已分配的部分,自然主要经由保险集团收益中的净投资收益一项进入该表。

As indicated earlier, undistributed earnings in companies we do not control are now fully as important as the reported operating earnings detailed in the preceding table. The distributed portion, of course, finds its way into the table primarily through the net investment income section of Insurance Group earnings.

下面列出伯克希尔在那些非控股企业中按比例持有的股份——对这些企业,我们只把已分配收益(股息)计入自己的收益。

We show below Berkshire’s proportional holdings in those non-controlled businesses for which only distributed earnings (dividends) are included in our own earnings.

持股数公司名称成本市值
(千美元,略去尾数)(千美元,略去尾数)
434,550 (a)Affiliated Publications, Inc.$ 2,821$ 12,222
464,317 (a)Aluminum Company of America25,57727,685
475,217 (b)Cleveland-Cliffs Iron Company12,94215,894
1,983,812 (b)General Foods, Inc.62,50759,889
7,200,000 (a)GEICO Corporation47,138105,300
2,015,000 (a)Handy & Harman21,82558,435
711,180 (a)Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc.4,53122,135
1,211,834 (a)Kaiser Aluminum & Chemical Corp.20,62927,569
282,500 (a)Media General4,5458,334
247,039 (b)National Detroit Corporation5,9306,299
881,500 (a)National Student Marketing5,1285,895
391,400 (a)Ogilvy & Mather Int’l. Inc.3,7099,981
370,088 (b)Pinkerton’s, Inc.12,14416,489
245,700 (b)R. J. Reynolds Industries8,70211,228
1,250,525 (b)SAFECO Corporation32,06245,177
151,104 (b)The Times Mirror Company4,4476,271
1,868,600 (a)The Washington Post Company10,62842,277
667,124 (b)E W Woolworth Company13,58316,511
$298,848$497,591
所有其他普通股持股26,31332,096
普通股总计$325,161$529,687
No. of Shares                                            Cost       Market
-------------                                         ----------  ----------
                                                          (000s omitted)
  434,550 (a)  Affiliated Publications, Inc. ......... $  2,821    $ 12,222
  464,317 (a)  Aluminum Company of America ...........   25,577      27,685
  475,217 (b)  Cleveland-Cliffs Iron Company .........   12,942      15,894
1,983,812 (b)  General Foods, Inc. ...................   62,507      59,889
7,200,000 (a)  GEICO Corporation .....................   47,138     105,300
2,015,000 (a)  Handy & Harman ........................   21,825      58,435
  711,180 (a)  Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. ..    4,531      22,135
1,211,834 (a)  Kaiser Aluminum & Chemical Corp. ......   20,629      27,569
  282,500 (a)  Media General .........................    4,545       8,334
  247,039 (b)  National Detroit Corporation ..........    5,930       6,299
  881,500 (a)  National Student Marketing ............    5,128       5,895
  391,400 (a)  Ogilvy & Mather Int’l. Inc. ...........    3,709       9,981
  370,088 (b)  Pinkerton’s, Inc. .....................   12,144      16,489
  245,700 (b)  R. J. Reynolds Industries .............    8,702      11,228
1,250,525 (b)  SAFECO Corporation ....................   32,062      45,177
  151,104 (b)  The Times Mirror Company ..............    4,447       6,271
1,868,600 (a)  The Washington Post Company ...........   10,628      42,277
  667,124 (b)  E W Woolworth Company .................   13,583      16,511
                                                      ----------  ----------
                                                       $298,848    $497,591
               All Other Common Stockholdings ........   26,313      32,096
                                                      ----------  ----------
               Total Common Stocks ................... $325,161    $529,687
                                                      ==========  ==========

(a) 全部由伯克希尔或其保险子公司持有。(b) 蓝筹印花和/或西科持有这些公司的股份。所有数字均代表伯克希尔在整个集团更大总持股量中所占的净权益。

(a) All owned by Berkshire or its insurance subsidiaries. (b) Blue Chip and/or Wesco own shares of these companies. All numbers represent Berkshire’s net interest in the larger gross holdings of the group.

从这张表可以看出,我们潜在盈利能力的行业分布,与表面看去的大不相同。举例来说,我们的保险子公司持有凯撒铝业约 3%、美铝约 1.25% 的股份,1980 年我们在这两家公司应占的利润约 1300 万美元。(若要一美元对一美元地折算成最终的市值增长与股息之和,还得扣掉一笔数额可观、却无法精确算定的税款;假设为 25% 或许还算公道。)由此可见,我们在铝业中的经济利益,比在几乎任何一家由我们控制、并会更详细报告的经营性业务里都要大得多。只要维持这些持股,我们的长期业绩受铝业未来经济走势的影响,就会大于我们对多数管理控制型公司所做的直接经营决策。

From this table, you can see that our sources of underlying earning power are distributed far differently among industries than would superficially seem the case. For example, our insurance subsidiaries own approximately 3% of Kaiser Aluminum, and 1 1/4% of Alcoa. Our share of the 1980 earnings of those companies amounts to about $13 million. (If translated dollar for dollar into a combination of eventual market value gain and dividends, this figure would have to be reduced by a significant, but not precisely determinable, amount of tax; perhaps 25% would be a fair assumption.) Thus, we have a much larger economic interest in the aluminum business than in practically any of the operating businesses we control and on which we report in more detail. If we maintain our holdings, our long-term performance will be more affected by the future economics of the aluminum industry than it will by direct operating decisions we make concerning most companies over which we exercise managerial control.

GEICO 公司

GEICO Corp.

我们最大的一笔非控股持股,是 720 万股 GEICO 公司股票,约合 33% 的权益。按理说,这种规模的权益(超过 20%)本应当作“被投资公司”处理,要求我们把 GEICO 盈利中相应的份额计入自己的利润。不过,我们买入这批 GEICO 股票,是依照哥伦比亚特区和纽约保险监管部门的特别命令进行的,该命令要求把这批股票的表决权交给一个独立第三方。既然没有表决权,我们这 33% 的权益就不适用被投资公司的待遇。(Pinkerton 的情况与此类似。)

Our largest non-controlled holding is 7.2 million shares of GEICO Corp., equal to about a 33% equity interest. Normally, an interest of this magnitude (over 20%) would qualify as an “investee” holding and would require us to reflect a proportionate share of GEICO’s earnings in our own. However, we purchased our GEICO stock pursuant to special orders of the District of Columbia and New York Insurance Departments, which required that the right to vote the stock be placed with an independent party. Absent the vote, our 33% interest does not qualify for investee treatment. (Pinkerton’s is a similar situation.)

当然,GEICO 的未分配收益每年是否计入我们的经营利润数字,与它对我们、对你们这些伯克希尔所有者的经济价值毫不相干。这些留存收益值多少,取决于 GEICO 管理层运用它们的本事。

Of course, whether or not the undistributed earnings of GEICO are picked up annually in our operating earnings figure has nothing to do with their economic value to us, or to you as owners of Berkshire. The value of these retained earnings will be determined by the skill with which they are put to use by GEICO management.

在这一点上,我们简直没法更放心了。GEICO 集齐了投资世界里最好的一切——一项极其重要、又极难复制的商业优势,配上一支非凡的管理层,其经营本领与资本配置本领同样出色。

On this score, we simply couldn’t feel better. GEICO represents the best of all investment worlds - the coupling of a very important and very hard to duplicate business advantage with an extraordinary management whose skills in operations are matched by skills in capital allocation.

如你所见,这批持股花了我们 4700 万美元,其中约一半投于 1976 年,其余大部分投于 1980 年。按当前股息率,我们从 GEICO 得到的报告收益每年略高于 300 万美元;但我们估算,自己在其盈利能力中的份额约为每年 2000 万美元。也就是说,仅这一笔持股所对应的未分配收益,就可能相当于伯克希尔报告经营利润总额的 40%。

As you can see, our holdings cost us $47 million, with about half of this amount invested in 1976 and most of the remainder invested in 1980. At the present dividend rate, our reported earnings from GEICO amount to a little over $3 million annually. But we estimate our share of its earning power is on the order of $20 million annually. Thus, undistributed earnings applicable to this holding alone may amount to 40% of total reported operating earnings of Berkshire.

必须强调,对于 GEICO 管理层留下的、估计约 1700 万美元归属于我们的那部分盈利,我们与它揣在自己兜里一样安心。仅过去两年,GEICO 就通过回购自家股票,把流通在外的等价股份从 3420 万股减到 2160 万股,在一门根本无法复制的生意里大大增厚了股东的权益。所有者得到的待遇,再好不过。

We should emphasize that we feel as comfortable with GEICO management retaining an estimated $17 million of earnings applicable to our ownership as we would if that sum were in our own hands. In just the last two years GEICO, through repurchases of its own stock, has reduced the share equivalents it has outstanding from 34.2 million to 21.6 million, dramatically enhancing the interests of shareholders in a business that simply can’t be replicated. The owners could not have been better served.

我们在过去的报告里写过,买下并经营“扭亏为盈”型企业通常只会换来失望。这些年来,几十个行业、成百上千个所谓扭亏机会摆到我们面前,无论作为参与者还是旁观者,我们都对照预期追踪过它们的实际表现。我们的结论是:除极少数例外,当一位以才华著称的管理者,接手一门以基本面糟糕著称的生意时,最后毫发无伤的往往是这门生意的名声。

We have written in past reports about the disappointments that usually result from purchase and operation of “turnaround” businesses. Literally hundreds of turnaround possibilities in dozens of industries have been described to us over the years and, either as participants or as observers, we have tracked performance against expectations. Our conclusion is that, with few exceptions, when a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for poor fundamental economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact.

GEICO 看起来像个例外——它 1976 年从破产边缘被拉了回来。诚然,它的起死回生确实需要管理上的过人才华,而那一年杰克·伯恩的到来,正为它注入了这一味要素。

GEICO may appear to be an exception, having been turned around from the very edge of bankruptcy in 1976. It certainly is true that managerial brilliance was needed for its resuscitation, and that Jack Byrne, upon arrival in that year, supplied that ingredient in abundance.

但同样确凿的是,GEICO 素来享有的那项根本商业优势——正是它此前缔造了惊人的成功——尽管一度淹没在财务与经营困境的汪洋里,却始终完好地留在公司内部。

But it also is true that the fundamental business advantage that GEICO had enjoyed - an advantage that previously had produced staggering success - was still intact within the company, although submerged in a sea of financial and operating troubles.

GEICO 的定位,是要在汽车保险这个庞大市场里做低成本经营,而这个市场里的多数玩家,都被自身的营销架构束住了手脚,难以调整。按此定位运作,它既能给客户带来非同寻常的价值,又能为自己赚取非同寻常的回报。几十年来,它一直是这么运作的。它 70 年代中期的麻烦,并非这项核心经济优势削弱或消失所致。

GEICO was designed to be the low-cost operation in an enormous marketplace (auto insurance) populated largely by companies whose marketing structures restricted adaptation. Run as designed, it could offer unusual value to its customers while earning unusual returns for itself. For decades it had been run in just this manner. Its troubles in the mid-70s were not produced by any diminution or disappearance of this essential economic advantage.

GEICO 当年的处境,与 1964 年“色拉油丑闻”后的美国运通颇为相似。两者都是独一无二的公司,都因一记财务重击而一时踉跄,可这一击并未摧毁它们卓越的底层经济基础。GEICO 和美国运通这类情形——拥有非凡的经济特许权,却长了一处局部、可切除的“毒瘤”(当然,需要一位技艺高超的外科医生)——应当同真正的“扭亏为盈”区分开来:后一种情形中,管理层指望、也需要上演一出企业版的“皮格马利翁”奇迹。

GEICO’s problems at that time put it in a position analogous to that of American Express in 1964 following the salad oil scandal. Both were one-of-a-kind companies, temporarily reeling from the effects of a fiscal blow that did not destroy their exceptional underlying economics. The GEICO and American Express situations, extraordinary business franchises with a localized excisable cancer (needing, to be sure, a skilled surgeon), should be distinguished from the true “turnaround” situation in which the managers expect - and need - to pull off a corporate Pygmalion.

不管叫什么名目,我们对手中这笔 GEICO 持股都非常满意——如前所述,它的成本是 4700 万美元。若要通过协议收购一整家公司,在一门经济特性一流、前景光明的生意里买到同样 2000 万美元的盈利能力,至少得花 2 亿美元(有些行业还远不止此)。这样一笔 100% 的股权,能给所有者提供若干选择:为收购加杠杆、更换管理层、调度现金流、乃至把生意卖掉;此外或许还能给公司总部平添几分热闹(这一点较少有人提起)。

Whatever the appellation, we are delighted with our GEICO holding which, as noted, cost us $47 million. To buy a similar $20 million of earning power in a business with first-class economic characteristics and bright prospects would cost a minimum of $200 million (much more in some industries) if it had to be accomplished through negotiated purchase of an entire company. A 100% interest of that kind gives the owner the options of leveraging the purchase, changing managements, directing cash flow, and selling the business. It may also provide some excitement around corporate headquarters (less frequently mentioned).

我们的保险业务性质,注定了我们要买入许多已经经营良好的企业的少数股权(买价远低于我们应占的整体企业总价值),而这些企业既不需要更换管理层,也不需要重新调度现金流或出售——对此我们心满意足。管理界出不了几个杰克·伯恩,商界也难得有几家 GEICO。能同时与这两者结成合伙,还有什么比这更好?

We find it perfectly satisfying that the nature of our insurance business dictates we buy many minority portions of already well-run businesses (at prices far below our share of the total value of the entire business) that do not need management change, re-direction of cash flow, or sale. There aren’t many Jack Byrnes in the managerial world, or GEICOs in the business world. What could be better than buying into a partnership with both of them?

保险行业状况

Insurance Industry Conditions

保险业的承保图景,正如我们所料地展开:综合成本率(定义见第 37 页)从 1979 年的 100.6 升到 1980 年估计的 103.5。几乎可以肯定,这一趋势还会延续,全行业的承保亏损将在 1981、1982 两年显著而持续地加重。要弄清缘由,我们建议你读一读丘博保险公司(Chubb Corp.)的芭芭拉·斯图尔特(Barbara Stewart)在 1980 年 10 月一篇论文中对财产意外险竞争格局所作的精彩分析。(丘博的年报,向来对行业状况给出最有见地、最坦诚、也最见文采的论述;你应该设法进入它家的邮寄名单。)斯图尔特的分析读来或许并不叫人愉快,但我们认为它极可能是准确的。

The insurance industry’s underwriting picture continues to unfold about as we anticipated, with the combined ratio (see definition on page 37) rising from 100.6 in 1979 to an estimated 103.5 in 1980. It is virtually certain that this trend will continue and that industry underwriting losses will mount, significantly and progressively, in 1981 and 1982. To understand why, we recommend that you read the excellent analysis of property-casualty competitive dynamics done by Barbara Stewart of Chubb Corp. in an October 1980 paper. (Chubb’s annual report consistently presents the most insightful, candid and well- written discussion of industry conditions; you should get on the company’s mailing list.) Mrs. Stewart’s analysis may not be cheerful, but we think it is very likely to be accurate.

而且不幸的是,还有一个基本无人提及、却尤为阴险的问题,很可能拉长并加剧即将到来的行业阵痛。当承保亏损攀上历史新高时,它不仅可能逼得许多保险公司照旧四处抢单,甚至可能在那种时候逼它们加倍去抢。

And, unfortunately, a largely unreported but particularly pernicious problem may well prolong and intensify the coming industry agony. It is not only likely to keep many insurers scrambling for business when underwriting losses hit record levels - it is likely to cause them at such a time to redouble their efforts.

这个问题,源于债券价格下跌,再加上一条保险会计惯例——它允许公司不论债券市值如何,都按摊余成本入账。许多保险公司所持的长期债券,按摊余成本算,达到其净资产的两到三倍。若是三倍,那么债券价格相对成本一旦缩水三分之一——只要这一缩水在账面上被确认——净资产就会被一笔抹平。而它们确实缩水了。若把债券持仓按市价计,一些规模最大、名头最响的财产意外险公司,眼下的名义净资产已经归零,甚至转负。当然,这些债券的价格也可能回升,从而部分、乃至完全恢复其账面净资产的成色。也可能进一步下跌。(我们相信,对股价或债券价格的短期预测毫无用处。这种预测或许能告诉你不少关于预测者本人的信息,却对未来什么也说明不了。)

This problem arises from the decline in bond prices and the insurance accounting convention that allows companies to carry bonds at amortized cost, regardless of market value. Many insurers own long-term bonds that, at amortized cost, amount to two to three times net worth. If the level is three times, of course, a one-third shrink from cost in bond prices - if it were to be recognized on the books - would wipe out net worth. And shrink they have. Some of the largest and best known property- casualty companies currently find themselves with nominal, or even negative, net worth when bond holdings are valued at market. Of course their bonds could rise in price, thereby partially, or conceivably even fully, restoring the integrity of stated net worth. Or they could fall further. (We believe that short-term forecasts of stock or bond prices are useless. The forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you nothing about the future.)

有人也许会觉得奇怪:一家保险公司的股票组合价格跌到足以显著侵蚀净资产时,其生存会受到威胁;可债券价格跌得更狠,却激不起半点反应。业界对此的回应是:无论眼下价格如何,债券到期都会全额兑付,任何期间的价格下跌终会一笔勾销。这套说法称,也许要等上二十年、三十年、甚至四十年,但只要债券不必卖出,到头来它们都会值回面值。当然,这些债券一旦卖出——哪怕是换成相对价值更好的同类债券——损失也必须立刻入账;与此同时,公开的净资产也必须照数下调。

It might strike some as strange that an insurance company’s survival is threatened when its stock portfolio falls sufficiently in price to reduce net worth significantly, but that an even greater decline in bond prices produces no reaction at all. The industry would respond by pointing out that, no matter what the current price, the bonds will be paid in full at maturity, thereby eventually eliminating any interim price decline. It may take twenty, thirty, or even forty years, this argument says, but, as long as the bonds don’t have to be sold, in the end they’ll all be worth face value. Of course, if they are sold even if they are replaced with similar bonds offering better relative value - the loss must be booked immediately. And, just as promptly, published net worth must be adjusted downward by the amount of the loss.

在这种局面下,大量投资选择就此消失,也许一消失就是几十年。比如说,当预见到会有大额承保亏损时,一些保险公司从免税债券转投应税债券,本可能是极为合算的商业逻辑;而唯一挡住这一明智之举的,或许正是它们不愿确认重大的债券损失。

Under such circumstances, a great many investment options disappear, perhaps for decades. For example, when large underwriting losses are in prospect, it may make excellent business logic for some insurers to shift from tax-exempt bonds into taxable bonds. Unwillingness to recognize major bond losses may be the sole factor that prevents such a sensible move.

但巨额未实现债券损失所牵连出的后果,远比投资思路被冻住严重得多。因为买入并持有这些债券的资金,来自一个由保单持有人和索赔人(面孔不断更替)汇成的资金池——这笔钱,实际上只是暂存在保险公司手里。只要这个资金池维持规模,就无需卖出任何债券。可一旦资金池缩水——业务量若显著下滑,它就会缩水——就必须变卖资产来清偿负债。而若这些资产里包括背着巨额未实现损失的债券,这些损失就会迅速变成已实现损失,并在此过程中把净资产大幅削去。

But the full implications flowing from massive unrealized bond losses are far more serious than just the immobilization of investment intellect. For the source of funds to purchase and hold those bonds is a pool of money derived from policyholders and claimants (with changing faces) - money which, in effect, is temporarily on deposit with the insurer. As long as this pool retains its size, no bonds must be sold. If the pool of funds shrinks - which it will if the volume of business declines significantly - assets must be sold to pay off the liabilities. And if those assets consist of bonds with big unrealized losses, such losses will rapidly become realized, decimating net worth in the process.

于是,一家债券市值缩水已逼近其账面净资产(这样的公司如今为数不少)、同时又面对费率明显不足、且必将进一步恶化的保险公司,面前有两条路。管理层的第一条路,是叮嘱承保人继续按所涉风险敞口定价——“务必做到每承担一美元的费用成本加预期损失成本,就收进一美元的保费”。

Thus, an insurance company with a bond market value shrinkage approaching stated net worth (of which there are now many) and also faced with inadequate rate levels that are sure to deteriorate further has two options. One option for management is to tell the underwriters to keep pricing according to the exposure involved - “be sure to get a dollar of premium for every dollar of expense cost plus expectable loss cost”.

这道指令的后果可以预见:(a)由于多数业务既对价格敏感、又每年续保,眼下账面上的许多保单,会在相当短的时间里被竞争对手抢走;(b)随着保费收入大幅萎缩,负债(未到期保费和应付赔款)会滞后但相应地减少;(c)为匹配负债的减少,必须卖出资产(债券);(d)此前未曾确认的净资产消失,将在保险公司公开的财务报表中被部分确认(确认多少,视卖出规模而定)。

The consequences of this directive are predictable: (a) with most business both price sensitive and renewable annually, many policies presently on the books will be lost to competitors in rather short order; (b) as premium volume shrinks significantly, there will be a lagged but corresponding decrease in liabilities (unearned premiums and claims payable); (c) assets (bonds) must be sold to match the decrease in liabilities; and (d) the formerly unrecognized disappearance of net worth will become partially recognized (depending upon the extent of such sales) in the insurer’s published financial statements.

这一令人沮丧的连锁反应,也有一些变体,对账面净资产的杀伤较小。有些公司走到(c)这一步时,会选择卖掉那些本就按市价入账的股票,或卖掉近期买入、损失没那么惨重的债券。这种鸵鸟式做法——把较好的资产卖掉,把亏得最狠的死死攥住——短期固然痛楚小些,长期却难有好结果。

Variations of this depressing sequence involve a smaller penalty to stated net worth. The reaction of some companies at (c) would be to sell either stocks that are already carried at market values or recently purchased bonds involving less severe losses. This ostrich-like behavior - selling the better assets and keeping the biggest losers - while less painful in the short term, is unlikely to be a winner in the long term.

第二条路要简单得多:不管费率高低、也不管眼看要来的承保亏损有多惊人,只管把业务照写不误,从而把当下的保费、资产和负债水平都维持住——然后祈祷有朝一日承保或债券价格能有个好行情。业界报刊对“现金流承保”多有批评,即不顾预期承保亏损,只为拿到资金好按当前高利率去投资而承保。而这第二条路,或许更该叫“资产维持式承保”——为了守住手里现有的资产,什么烂业务都肯接。

The second option is much simpler: just keep writing business regardless of rate levels and whopping prospective underwriting losses, thereby maintaining the present levels of premiums, assets and liabilities - and then pray for a better day, either for underwriting or for bond prices. There is much criticism in the trade press of “cash flow” underwriting; i.e., writing business regardless of prospective underwriting losses in order to obtain funds to invest at current high interest rates. This second option might properly be termed “asset maintenance” underwriting - the acceptance of terrible business just to keep the assets you now have.

当然,你猜得到会选哪一条。同样清楚的是:只要许多大型保险公司觉得非选第二条不可,承保就不会有好日子。因为一旦行业里的多数公司认定,无论价格是否合理都得把保费规模撑住,所有保险公司就都不得不把价格压到接近它们的水平。仅次于自己陷入财务困境的第二等倒霉事,就是身边有一大群同样陷入财务困境、却能靠“不惜血本也要卖”的策略把问题往后拖的竞争对手。

Of course you know which option will be selected. And it also is clear that as long as many large insurers feel compelled to choose that second option, there will be no better day for underwriting. For if much of the industry feels it must maintain premium volume levels regardless of price adequacy, all insurers will have to come close to meeting those prices. Right behind having financial problems yourself, the next worst plight is to have a large group of competitors with financial problems that they can defer by a “sell-at-any-price” policy.

前面提到,有些公司出于种种缘由——包括顾忌公众反应、机构自尊、或是为了保住账面净资产——不愿在会逼出重大损失的价位上卖出债券,结果可能在投资姿态上被冻结十年、甚至更久。但如前所述,这还只是问题的一半。那些在长期债券上下了重注的公司,很可能在相当长的一段时间里,不仅失去许多投资选择,也失去许多承保选择。

We mentioned earlier that companies that were unwilling - for any of a number of reasons, including public reaction, institutional pride, or protection of stated net worth - to sell bonds at price levels forcing recognition of major losses might find themselves frozen in investment posture for a decade or longer. But, as noted, that’s only half of the problem. Companies that have made extensive commitments to long-term bonds may have lost, for a considerable period of time, not only many of their investment options, but many of their underwriting options as well.

在这方面,我们自身的处境令人满意。我们相信,若把所有保险公司的债券一律按摊余成本计,我们的净资产相对保费收入之比,在所有大型上市财产意外险集团中是最强的;而一旦债券按市价计,我们的相对优势就更为悬殊。(不过,为免自吹自擂,我们也提醒自己:我们的资产与负债在期限上的错配,仍远比我们所愿的严重;而且我们同样在债券上损失了不小的一笔,只因你们的董事长在本该动手的时候却在动嘴。)

Our own position in this respect is satisfactory. We believe our net worth, valuing bonds of all insurers at amortized cost, is the strongest relative to premium volume among all large property-casualty stockholder-owned groups. When bonds are valued at market, our relative strength becomes far more dramatic. (But lest we get too puffed up, we remind ourselves that our asset and liability maturities still are far more mismatched than we would wish and that we, too, lost important sums in bonds because your Chairman was talking when he should have been acting.)

我们充裕的资本和灵活的投资能力,将使我们能在这段预计会拖得很长的费率不足期里,做任何我们认为最明智的事。但行业的麻烦,也就是我们的麻烦。我们的财务实力,并不能把我们从眼下笼罩整个财产意外险行业的恶劣定价环境中拔出来;它只是给了我们更强的持久力和更多的回旋余地。

Our abundant capital and investment flexibility will enable us to do whatever we think makes the most sense during the prospective extended period of inadequate pricing. But troubles for the industry mean troubles for us. Our financial strength doesn’t remove us from the hostile pricing environment now enveloping the entire property-casualty insurance industry. It just gives us more staying power and more options.

保险业务

Insurance Operations

国民赔偿公司的管理团队由菲尔·利舍领衔,一如既往地得到罗兰·米勒和比尔·莱昂斯的得力辅佐,1980 年更是超越了自己。虽然保费规模持平,但相对全行业而言,承保利润率创下了历史新高。我们预计 1981 年这块业务的保费规模会下降。但公司总部不会有半句怨言,也不会因此裁员或降薪。国民赔偿公司那份承保纪律,我们钦佩至极——它是创始人杰克·林沃特从一开始就植入的基因;我们也深知,这份纪律一旦松掉,恐怕就再难完全找回。

The National Indemnity managers, led by Phil Liesche with the usual able assistance of Roland Miller and Bill Lyons, outdid themselves in 1980. While volume was flat, underwriting margins relative to the industry were at an all-time high. We expect decreased volume from this operation in 1981. But its managers will hear no complaints from corporate headquarters, nor will employment or salaries suffer. We enormously admire the National Indemnity underwriting discipline - embedded from origin by the founder, Jack Ringwalt - and know that this discipline, if suspended, probably could not be fully regained.

家庭与汽车保险公司的约翰·苏厄德,继续稳步推进,用竞争没那么激烈的险种(主要是小额普通责任险)的保费,来填补日渐减少的汽车保单。视承保结果而定,业务正在地域和产品线上缓慢铺开。

John Seward at Home and Auto continues to make good progress in replacing a diminishing number of auto policies with volume from less competitive lines, primarily small-premium general liability. Operations are being slowly expanded, both geographically and by product line, as warranted by underwriting results.

再保险业务,仍在映照直接承保公司的过度扩张与种种问题;更糟的是,它还有可能把这些过度放大。再保险的特点是入行极其容易、保费大笔提前到账,而损失报告和赔付却姗姗来迟。开头一阵子,每天早上邮件送来的是大把现金和寥寥几笔索赔。这种情形能让人生出一种幸福、近乎陶醉的感觉,就像一个天真的人头一回拿到信用卡。

The reinsurance business continues to reflect the excesses and problems of the primary writers. Worse yet, it has the potential for magnifying such excesses. Reinsurance is characterized by extreme ease of entry, large premium payments in advance, and much-delayed loss reports and loss payments. Initially, the morning mail brings lots of cash and few claims. This state of affairs can produce a blissful, almost euphoric, feeling akin to that experienced by an innocent upon receipt of his first credit card.

这种能生成现金的特性有着磁石般的吸引力,眼下又被高利率进一步放大,正把再保险市场变成一场“业余之夜”。若不出现超级巨灾,未来几年全行业的承保业绩都会很差;而万一真的碰上这样的巨灾,则可能是一场血洗,一些公司将无力兑现合同承诺。乔治·杨在这一块继续为我们做着一流的工作。把投资收益算进去,业绩还算说得过去的盈利。我们会保持一份活跃的再保险业务参与,但就可预见的将来而言,我们并不指望这项业务的保费增长。

The magnetic lure of such cash-generating characteristics, currently enhanced by the presence of high interest rates, is transforming the reinsurance market into “amateur night”. Without a super catastrophe, industry underwriting will be poor in the next few years. If we experience such a catastrophe, there could be a bloodbath with some companies not able to live up to contractual commitments. George Young continues to do a first-class job for us in this business. Results, with investment income included, have been reasonably profitable. We will retain an active reinsurance presence but, for the foreseeable future, we expect no premium growth from this activity.

本州保险业务上,我们仍面临严重问题。堪萨斯州的弗洛伊德·泰勒干得极为出色,但我们在别处的承保记录则远在平均水平之下。表现最差的是爱荷华保险公司,自 1973 年成立起年年蒙受巨额亏损。去年秋末,我们放弃了在该州的承保,并把这家公司并入康胡斯克意外险公司。本州模式是有潜力的,但要把它兑现,还有大量工作要做。

We continue to have serious problems in the Homestate operation. Floyd Taylor in Kansas has done an outstanding job but our underwriting record elsewhere is considerably below average. Our poorest performer has been Insurance Company of Iowa, at which large losses have been sustained annually since its founding in 1973. Late in the fall we abandoned underwriting in that state, and have merged the company into Cornhusker Casualty. There is potential in the homestate concept, but much work needs to be done in order to realize it.

我们的工伤保险业务去年遭受重创——弗兰克·德纳尔多在 37 岁上离世。弗兰克天生就有承保人的思维。他既是出色的技术能手,又是凶悍的竞争者;短短时间里,他就理顺了国民赔偿公司加州工伤保险部门的一堆大问题。当初把弗兰克引荐给我们的丹·格罗斯曼,在弗兰克身故后立即接手,把这块业务延续了下来——如今它以伯克希尔旗下另一家子公司红木火灾意外保险公司作为承保载体。

Our Workers Compensation operation suffered a severe loss when Frank DeNardo died last year at 37. Frank instinctively thought like an underwriter. He was a superb technician and a fierce competitor; in short order he had straightened out major problems at the California Workers Compensation Division of National Indemnity. Dan Grossman, who originally brought Frank to us, stepped in immediately after Frank’s death to continue that operation, which now utilizes Redwood Fire and Casualty, another Berkshire subsidiary, as the insuring vehicle.

我们主要的工伤保险业务,是由米尔顿·桑顿掌管的赛普拉斯保险公司,它继续保持着出色的战绩。年复一年,米尔顿都像菲尔·利舍那样,把一门承保业务经营得远远甩开同行。在业内,他备受钦佩、屡被效仿,却无人能及。

Our major Workers Compensation operation, Cypress Insurance Company, run by Milt Thornton, continues its outstanding record. Year after year Milt, like Phil Liesche, runs an underwriting operation that far outpaces his competition. In the industry he is admired and copied, but not matched.

总的来看,我们预计 1981 年保险业务量会显著下滑,承保业绩也会变差。我们预计自身的承保表现会略优于行业——当然,行业里多数公司也都这么想。到头来,总会有些人要失望。

Overall, we look for a significant decline in insurance volume in 1981 along with a poorer underwriting result. We expect underwriting experience somewhat superior to that of the industry but, of course, so does most of the industry. There will be some disappointments.

纺织与零售业务

Textile and Retail Operations

过去一年,我们收缩了纺织业务的规模。万姆贝克斯工厂的经营已经停掉,虽不情愿,却别无他法。一部分设备迁去了新贝德福德,其余大部分连同房地产已经或即将出售。你们的董事长犯了一个代价不小的错误——没能更早地正视现实。

During the past year we have cut back the scope of our textile business. Operations at Waumbec Mills have been terminated, reluctantly but necessarily. Some equipment was transferred to New Bedford but most has been sold, or will be, along with real estate. Your Chairman made a costly mistake in not facing the realities of this situation sooner.

在新贝德福德,我们把在用织机的数量削减了约三分之一,砍掉了一些产品差异微乎其微的大批量生产线。哪怕一切顺遂——实际上很少如此——这些生产线的回报也配不上所占用的投资;而放到整个行业周期里看,亏损才是最可能的结局。

At New Bedford we have reduced the number of looms operated by about one-third, abandoning some high-volume lines in which product differentiation was insignificant. Even assuming everything went right - which it seldom did - these lines could not generate adequate returns related to investment. And, over a full industry cycle, losses were the most likely result.

我们剩下的纺织业务规模仍然不小,已被拆成制造和销售两个部门,各自独立经营、互不牵绊,销售端的强项与工厂端的能力从此不再捆在一起。我们最近购入一批二手的 130 英寸苏尔寿织机,把最赚钱那块纺织业务的产能提高了一倍以上。眼下的形势预示纺织业又是难熬的一年,只是这门生意里占用的资本已经少了许多。

Our remaining textile operation, still sizable, has been divided into a manufacturing and a sales division, each free to do business independent of the other. Thus, distribution strengths and mill capabilities will not be wedded to each other. We have more than doubled capacity in our most profitable textile segment through a recent purchase of used 130-inch Saurer looms. Current conditions indicate another tough year in textiles, but with substantially less capital employed in the operation.

本·罗斯纳在联合零售商店的战绩,一直让我们惊叹。在零售业整体不景气的一年里,联合零售的盈利依旧出色——而且这些盈利统统变成了现金。1981 年 3 月 7 日,联合零售将迎来它的 50 周年。这五十年里,每一年都由本掌舵(1931 至 1966 年间还有他的合伙人里奥·西蒙同行)。

Ben Rosner’s record at Associated Retail Stores continues to amaze us. In a poor retailing year, Associated’s earnings continued excellent - and those earnings all were translated into cash. On March 7, 1981 Associated will celebrate its 50th birthday. Ben has run the business (along with Leo Simon, his partner from 1931 to 1966) in each of those fifty years.

伊利诺伊州罗克福德银行与信托公司的处置

Disposition of Illinois National Bank and Trust of Rockford

1980 年 12 月 31 日,我们完成了一笔交换:把 41,086 股罗克福德银行控股公司(持有伊利诺伊国民银行 97.7% 股份)的股票,换成同等数量的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股票。

On December 31, 1980 we completed the exchange of 41,086 shares of Rockford Bancorp Inc. (which owns 97.7% of Illinois National Bank) for a like number of shares of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

我们设计的交换方式,让所有伯克希尔股东都能维持自己在这家银行里按比例的权益(唯独我例外,只获准换取正常份额的 80%)。这样一来,他们所获得的所有权地位,与我们采用更传统的分拆方式所能达到的完全一致。在我们约 1300 位股东中,有二十四位选择了这一按比例交换的方案。

Our method of exchange allowed all Berkshire shareholders to maintain their proportional interest in the Bank (except for me; I was permitted 80% of my proportional share). They were thus guaranteed an ownership position identical to that they would have attained had we followed a more conventional spinoff approach. Twenty-four shareholders (of our approximate 1300) chose this proportional exchange option.

我们还允许超额交换,另有三十九位股东选了这一项,从而增加了自己在银行的持股、减少了在伯克希尔的按比例持股。他们想要的银行控股公司股票都足额拿到了,因为这三十九位股东所求的总股数,恰好略少于其余那 1200 多位、根本不愿让出任何伯克希尔股票的股东所腾出来的额度。作为兜底的最后交换人,我拿下了那一小块余额(占银行控股公司股票的 3%)。这些股票,加上我从基本交换配额(正常份额的 80%)中所得的部分,使我在银行的按比例权益略有下降,而在伯克希尔的按比例权益略有上升。

We also allowed overexchanges, and thirty-nine additional shareholders accepted this option, thereby increasing their ownership in the Bank and decreasing their proportional ownership in Berkshire. All got the full amount of Bancorp stock they requested, since the total shares desired by these thirty-nine holders was just slightly less than the number left available by the remaining 1200-plus holders of Berkshire who elected not to part with any Berkshire shares at all. As the exchanger of last resort, I took the small balance (3% of Bancorp’s stock). These shares, added to shares I received from my basic exchange allotment (80% of normal), gave me a slightly reduced proportional interest in the Bank and a slightly enlarged proportional interest in Berkshire.

银行管理层对结果很满意。银行控股公司将作为一家由 65 位股东持有、低成本又不复杂的控股公司运营。而这些股东,个个都是经过一番自觉、主动的抉择才成为它的所有者。

Management of the Bank is pleased with the outcome. Bancorp will operate as an inexpensive and uncomplicated holding company owned by 65 shareholders. And all of those shareholders will have become Bancorp owners through a conscious affirmative decision.

融资

Financing

8 月,我们发售了 6000 万美元、票面利率 12 3/4% 的票据,2005 年 8 月 1 日到期,并自 1991 年起设立偿债基金。

In August we sold $60 million of 12 3/4% notes due August 1, 2005, with a sinking fund to begin in 1991.

主承销商是唐纳森-卢夫金-詹雷特证券公司(由比尔·费舍代表)和奇利斯-海德公司(由查理·海德代表),从头到尾把这笔融资办得绝对一流。

The managing underwriters, Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette Securities Corporation, represented by Bill Fisher, and Chiles, Heider & Company, Inc., represented by Charlie Heider, did an absolutely first-class job from start to finish of the financing.

与多数企业不同,伯克希尔此番融资并非出于任何具体的眼前需要。我们借这笔钱,是因为相信在远短于贷款期限的一段时间里,会有许多机会让它派上好用场。而最诱人的机会,往往出现在信贷极其昂贵、甚至根本借不到的时候。到那种时候,我们希望手里握着充沛的财务火力。

Unlike most businesses, Berkshire did not finance because of any specific immediate needs. Rather, we borrowed because we think that, over a period far shorter than the life of the loan, we will have many opportunities to put the money to good use. The most attractive opportunities may present themselves at a time when credit is extremely expensive - or even unavailable. At such a time we want to have plenty of financial firepower.

论收购偏好,我们更中意那些能生成现金、而非吞噬现金的企业。随着通胀加剧,越来越多的公司发现,光是要维持现有的实际业务量,就得把内部生成的资金全数投进去。这类经营带着几分海市蜃楼的味道:无论盈利数字多么漂亮,只要一家企业似乎总也没法把这些漂亮数字兑成无附加条件的现金,我们就始终对它心存戒备。

Our acquisition preferences run toward businesses that generate cash, not those that consume it. As inflation intensifies, more and more companies find that they must spend all funds they generate internally just to maintain their existing physical volume of business. There is a certain mirage- like quality to such operations. However attractive the earnings numbers, we remain leery of businesses that never seem able to convert such pretty numbers into no-strings-attached cash.

合乎我们标准的企业并不好找。(每年我们都会读到数百桩企业收购,其中能让我们动心的不过寥寥几桩。)而合理地扩展现有业务,也同样不易落实。但为推动伯克希尔的成长,这两条路我们都会继续用。

Businesses meeting our standards are not easy to find. (Each year we read of hundreds of corporate acquisitions; only a handful would have been of interest to us.) And logical expansion of our present operations is not easy to implement. But we’ll continue to utilize both avenues in our attempts to further Berkshire’s growth.

无论何种境况,我们都打算保持充足的流动性、规模适中且结构合理的债务,以及雄厚的资本实力。这种保守做法多少压低了我们的净资产收益率,但也只有它能让我们心里踏实。

Under all circumstances we plan to operate with plenty of liquidity, with debt that is moderate in size and properly structured, and with an abundance of capital strength. Our return on equity is penalized somewhat by this conservative approach, but it is the only one with which we feel comfortable.

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我们持有多年的那家罗克福德银行的创始人吉恩·阿贝格,于 1980 年 7 月 2 日辞世,享年 82 岁。无论作为朋友、银行家还是公民,他都无人能及。

Gene Abegg, founder of our long-owned bank in Rockford, died on July 2, 1980 at the age of 82. As a friend, banker and citizen, he was unsurpassed.

从一个人手里买下企业、而他随后又以雇员而非所有者的身份留下来经营,你会由此把这个人看得很透。收购之前,卖方对企业了如指掌,你却是白纸一张。卖方有几十种机会误导买方——靠隐瞒、靠含糊、靠误导。支票易手之后,态度上微妙(或并不微妙)的转变可能悄然发生,那些心照不宣的默契也可能烟消云散。就像从恋爱走到婚姻,失望并不少见。

You learn a great deal about a person when you purchase a business from him and he then stays on to run it as an employee rather than as an owner. Before the purchase the seller knows the business intimately, whereas you start from scratch. The seller has dozens of opportunities to mislead the buyer - through omissions, ambiguities, and misdirection. After the check has changed hands, subtle (and not so subtle) changes of attitude can occur and implicit understandings can evaporate. As in the courtship-marriage sequence, disappointments are not infrequent.

可打从我们初次相识起,吉恩就百分之百地直来直去——这是他身上唯一的处世方式。谈判一开始,他就把所有不利因素统统摊在桌面上;反过来,在交易完成后的许多年里,他还会时不时告诉我一些以前从未提及、却随这笔收购一并到手的宝贝。

From the time we first met, Gene shot straight 100% of the time - the only behavior pattern he had within him. At the outset of negotiations, he laid all negative factors face up on the table; on the other hand, for years after the transaction was completed he would tell me periodically of some previously undiscussed items of value that had come with our purchase.

尽管把银行卖给我们时他已 71 岁,吉恩后来为我们卖的力气,比当年为自己还大。他从不把问题拖上一分钟才报告,可在吉恩这里,问题本就极少。对于一个在 1933 年“银行歇业日”那会儿,账上现金足够把所有储户全额兑付的人,你还能指望别的吗?吉恩从未忘记,自己经手的是别人的钱。这份受托人的操守始终占着上风,而他一流的管理本领,又让这家银行在全国盈利能力上常年稳居榜首。

Though he was already 71 years of age when he sold us the Bank, Gene subsequently worked harder for us than he had for himself. He never delayed reporting a problem for a minute, but problems were few with Gene. What else would you expect from a man who, at the time of the bank holiday in 1933, had enough cash on the premises to pay all depositors in full? Gene never forgot he was handling other people’s money. Though this fiduciary attitude was always dominant, his superb managerial skills enabled the Bank to regularly achieve the top position nationally in profitability.

吉恩执掌伊利诺伊国民银行将近五十年——差不多是我们国家历史的四分之一。罗克福德当地有几家银行倒闭后,富有的实业家乔治·米德把他从芝加哥请来,开办一家新银行。米德先生出钱,吉恩掌局。他的领导才干很快就在罗克福德几乎每一项重要的公共事务上,烙下了自己的印记。

Gene was in charge of the Illinois National for close to fifty years - almost one-quarter of the lifetime of our country. George Mead, a wealthy industrialist, brought him in from Chicago to open a new bank after a number of other banks in Rockford had failed. Mr. Mead put up the money and Gene ran the show. His talent for leadership soon put its stamp on virtually every major civic activity in Rockford.

这些年里,数十位罗克福德市民对我讲起过吉恩给予他们的帮助。有些是金钱上的,但无一例外,都饱含着大量的智慧、体恤与情谊。他给我的,也从来如此。因年龄和身份的不同,我有时是他资浅的搭档,有时又是资深的一方;可无论哪种关系,这份情谊始终特别,如今我很想念它。

Dozens of Rockford citizens have told me over the years of help Gene extended to them. In some cases this help was financial; in all cases it involved much wisdom, empathy and friendship. He always offered the same to me. Because of our respective ages and positions I was sometimes the junior partner, sometimes the senior. Whichever the relationship, it always was a special one, and I miss it.

沃伦·E·巴菲特

1981 年 2 月 27 日

董事会主席

Warren E. Buffett February 27, 1981 Chairman of the Board