2006 年致股东信

致股东信 · 原文约 13776 词
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注:下表刊载于印刷版年报中董事长信函的对照页,信函中提及此表。

Note: The following table appears in the printed Annual Report on the facing page of the Chairman's Letter and is referred to in that letter.

伯克希尔的公司业绩与标普 500 指数的对比

Berkshire’s Corporate Performance vs. the S&P 500

伯克希尔每股账面价值变动标普500(含股息)的年度百分比变化相对结果
年度(1)(2)(1)-(2)
196523.810.013.8
196620.3(11.7)32.0
196711.030.9(19.9)
196819.011.08.0
196916.2(8.4)24.6
197012.03.98.1
197116.414.61.8
197221.718.92.8
19734.7(14.8)19.5
19745.5(26.4)31.9
197521.937.2(15.3)
197659.323.635.7
197731.9(7.4)39.3
197824.06.417.6
197935.718.217.5
198019.332.3(13.0)
198131.4(5.0)36.4
198240.021.418.6
198332.322.49.9
198413.66.17.5
198548.231.616.6
198626.118.67.5
198719.55.114.4
198820.116.63.5
198944.431.712.7
19907.4(3.1)10.5
199139.630.59.1
199220.37.612.7
199314.310.14.2
199413.91.312.6
199543.137.65.5
199631.823.08.8
199734.133.4.7
199848.328.619.7
1999.521.0(20.5)
20006.5(9.1)15.6
2001(6.2)(11.9)5.7
200210.0(22.1)32.1
200321.028.7(7.7)
200410.510.9(.4)
20056.44.91.5
200618.415.82.6
年均复合收益——1965-200621.4%10.4%11.0
整体收益——1964-2006361,156%6,479%
in Per-Share Book Value of BerkshireAnnual Percentage Change in S&P 500 with Dividends IncludedRelative Results
Year(1)(2)(1)-(2)
196523.810.013.8
196620.3(11.7)32.0
196711.030.9(19.9)
196819.011.08.0
196916.2(8.4)24.6
197012.03.98.1
197116.414.61.8
197221.718.92.8
19734.7(14.8)19.5
19745.5(26.4)31.9
197521.937.2(15.3)
197659.323.635.7
197731.9(7.4)39.3
197824.06.417.6
197935.718.217.5
198019.332.3(13.0)
198131.4(5.0)36.4
198240.021.418.6
198332.322.49.9
198413.66.17.5
198548.231.616.6
198626.118.67.5
198719.55.114.4
198820.116.63.5
198944.431.712.7
19907.4(3.1)10.5
199139.630.59.1
199220.37.612.7
199314.310.14.2
199413.91.312.6
199543.137.65.5
199631.823.08.8
199734.133.4.7
199848.328.619.7
1999.521.0(20.5)
20006.5(9.1)15.6
2001(6.2)(11.9)5.7
200210.0(22.1)32.1
200321.028.7(7.7)
200410.510.9(.4)
20056.44.91.5
200618.415.82.6
Compounded Annual Gain – 1965-200621.4%10.4%11.0
Overall Gain – 1964-2006361,156%6,479%

说明:数据按日历年度统计,例外情况为:1965 年和 1966 年,截至 9 月 30 日;1967 年,截至 12 月 31 日,共 15 个月。自 1979 年起,会计规则要求保险公司按市值而非原先规定的成本与市价孰低法来估值其持有的股票。本表中,伯克希尔 1978 年之前的业绩已根据新规则重新表述。其他所有方面,业绩均按原报告数字计算。标普 500 指数为税前数据,而伯克希尔数据为税后数据。如果像伯克希尔这样的公司仅持有标普 500 指数并计提相应税费,其业绩在指数正回报年份将落后于标普 500,而在指数负回报年份则跑赢标普 500。多年累积下来,税费成本会导致总体差距相当大。

Notes: Data are for calendar years with these exceptions: 1965 and 1966, year ended 9/30; 1967, 15 months ended 12/31. Starting in 1979, accounting rules required insurance companies to value the equity securities they hold at market rather than at the lower of cost or market, which was previously the requirement. In this table, Berkshire’s results through 1978 have been restated to conform to the changed rules. In all other respects, the results are calculated using the numbers originally reported. The S&P 500 numbers are pre-tax whereas the Berkshire numbers are after-tax. If a corporation such as Berkshire were simply to have owned the S&P 500 and accrued the appropriate taxes, its results would have lagged the S&P 500 in years when that index showed a positive return, but would have exceeded the S&P 500 in years when the index showed a negative return. Over the years, the tax costs would have caused the aggregate lag to be substantial.

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伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.

致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司各位股东:

To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

2006 年我们的净资产增长了 169 亿美元,使 A 类和 B 类股票的每股账面价值提升了 18.4%。过去 42 年(即现任管理层接手以来),账面价值从 19 美元增长到 70,281 美元,年复合增长率达 21.4%。* 我们认为,169 亿美元是年度净资产增长的纪录——超过美国任何企业曾记载的数额,除了因并购而带来的提升(如美国在线收购时代华纳)。当然,埃克森美孚和其他公司的盈利远超伯克希尔,但它们的盈利大多用于股息或回购,而非积累净资产。话虽如此,关于我们 2006 年的收益,我得坦白一点。我们最重要的业务——保险,沾了大运气:大自然母亲,老天保佑她,度假去了。在 2004 年和 2005 年用飓风猛烈袭击我们之后——那些风暴让我们在巨灾再保险上损失惨重——她突然消失了。去年,这项活动的赤字由红转黑——而且黑得发亮。此外,我们 73 家企业中的绝大多数在 2006 年表现极为出色。让我花点时间谈谈我们最大的业务之一,GEICO。那里的管理层所取得的成就是惊人的。正如我之前告诉你们的,GEICO 的首席执行官托尼·奈斯利 45 年前加入公司,当时刚过 18 岁生日两个月。他在 1992 年成为首席执行官,从那时起公司的增长就爆发了。此外,近年来托尼在生产力方面带来了惊人的提升。从 2003 年底到 2006 年底,GEICO 的保单数量从 570 万份增加到 810 万份,增长了 42%。然而在同一时期,公司的员工人数(按全职等效计算)下降了 3.5%。所以生产力增长了 47%。而 GEICO 本来就不臃肿。这一显著进步让 GEICO 维持了低成本生产商的至要地位,尽管它大幅增加了广告开支。去年 GEICO 在广告上花了 6.31 亿美元,比 2003 年的 2.38 亿美元有所增加(也比 1995 年伯克希尔接管时的 3100 万美元增加不少)。如今,GEICO 在广告上的支出远超任何竞争对手,即使是那些规模大得多的公司。我们会继续提高门槛。去年我告诉你们,如果你们有个刚出生的儿子或孙子,一定要给他取名托尼。但伯克希尔董事唐·基奥最近有个更好的主意。看完 GEICO 2006 年的表现后,他写信给我:“别管新生儿了。告诉股东们立刻把现有的孩子改名成托尼或安托瓦内特。”唐在信末签名“托尼”。

Our gain in net worth during 2006 was $16.9 billion, which increased the per-share book value of both our Class A and Class B stock by 18.4%. Over the last 42 years (that is, since present management took over) book value has grown from $19 to $70,281, a rate of 21.4% compounded annually.* We believe that $16.9 billion is a record for a one-year gain in net worth – more than has ever been booked by any American business, leaving aside boosts that have occurred because of mergers (e.g., AOL’s purchase of Time Warner). Of course, Exxon Mobil and other companies earn far more than Berkshire, but their earnings largely go to dividends and/or repurchases, rather than to building net worth. All that said, a confession about our 2006 gain is in order. Our most important business, insurance, benefited from a large dose of luck: Mother Nature, bless her heart, went on vacation. After hammering us with hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 – storms that caused us to lose a bundle on super-cat insurance – she just vanished. Last year, the red ink from this activity turned black – very black. In addition, the great majority of our 73 businesses did outstandingly well in 2006. Let me focus for a moment on one of our largest operations, GEICO. What management accomplished there was simply extraordinary. As I’ve told you before, Tony Nicely, GEICO’s CEO, went to work at the company 45 years ago, two months after turning 18. He became CEO in 1992, and from then on the company’s growth exploded. In addition, Tony has delivered staggering productivity gains in recent years. Between yearend 2003 and yearend 2006, the number of GEICO policies increased from 5.7 million to 8.1 million, a jump of 42%. Yet during that same period, the company’s employees (measured on a fulltime-equivalent basis) fell 3.5%. So productivity grew 47%. And GEICO didn’t start fat. That remarkable gain has allowed GEICO to maintain its all-important position as a low-cost producer, even though it has dramatically increased advertising expenditures. Last year GEICO spent $631 million on ads, up from $238 million in 2003 (and up from $31 million in 1995, when Berkshire took control). Today, GEICO spends far more on ads than any of its competitors, even those much larger. We will continue to raise the bar. Last year I told you that if you had a new son or grandson to be sure to name him Tony. But Don Keough, a Berkshire director, recently had a better idea. After reviewing GEICO’s performance in 2006, he wrote me, “Forget births. Tell the shareholders to immediately change the names of their present children to Tony or Antoinette.” Don signed his letter “Tony.”

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查理·芒格(Charlie Munger),我的合伙人,也是伯克希尔的副董事长,和我经营着一家规模颇大的企业,拥有 21.7 万名员工,年收入接近 1000 亿美元。我们当初可没打算把生意做成这样。查理起步时是名律师,而我自认为是证券分析师。坐在那些位子上,我们都对大型组织(无论什么类型)能否运作良好心生怀疑。规模似乎让许多机构变得反应迟钝、抗拒变化、自鸣得意。用丘吉尔的话说:“我们塑造了建筑,之后建筑也塑造了我们。”一个耐人寻味的事实是:1965 年市值最大的十家非石油公司——通用汽车、西尔斯、杜邦、柯达这些巨头——到 2006 年,只有一家还在榜单上。

Charlie Munger – my partner and Berkshire’s vice chairman – and I run what has turned out to be a big business, one with 217,000 employees and annual revenues approaching $100 billion. We certainly didn’t plan it that way. Charlie began as a lawyer, and I thought of myself as a security analyst. Sitting in those seats, we both grew skeptical about the ability of big entities of any type to function well. Size seems to make many organizations slow-thinking, resistant to change and smug. In Churchill’s words: “We shape our buildings, and afterwards our buildings shape us.” Here’s a telling fact: Of the ten non-oil companies having the largest market capitalization in 1965 – titans such as General Motors, Sears, DuPont and Eastman Kodak – only one made the 2006 list.

本报告中使用的所有每股数据均适用于伯克希尔的 A 股。B 股数据为 A 股所示数据的 1/30。

*All per-share figures used in this report apply to Berkshire’s A shares. Figures for the B shares are 1/30th of those shown for the A.

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平心而论,我们也见过不少成功案例,其中有些堪称出色。我极为钦佩许多大型公司的管理者,脑海中立刻浮现出美国运通的肯·钱纳特、通用电气的杰夫·伊梅尔特和富国银行的迪克·科瓦切维奇。但我并不认为自己能胜任他们所做的那种管理工作。而且我清楚,他们职位带来的许多职责,我根本不会喜欢——开会、演讲、出国旅行、慈善活动和政府关系。对我而言,罗纳德·里根说得对:“辛勤工作大概从未害死过任何人——但何必冒这个险呢?”所以我走了捷径,只是安心坐着,通过那些自己经营业务的优秀管理者来运作。我唯一的任务是给他们加油鼓劲,塑造并强化我们的企业文化,以及做出重大的资本配置决策。我们的管理者以勤奋高效的工作回报了这份信任。查理和我感谢他们过去 42 年来的表现——尤其是 2006 年——他们当之无愧。

In fairness, we’ve seen plenty of successes as well, some truly outstanding. There are many giantcompany managers whom I greatly admire; Ken Chenault of American Express, Jeff Immelt of G.E. and Dick Kovacevich of Wells Fargo come quickly to mind. But I don’t think I could do the management job they do. And I know I wouldn’t enjoy many of the duties that come with their positions – meetings, speeches, foreign travel, the charity circuit and governmental relations. For me, Ronald Reagan had it right: “It’s probably true that hard work never killed anyone – but why take the chance?” So I’ve taken the easy route, just sitting back and working through great managers who run their own shows. My only tasks are to cheer them on, sculpt and harden our corporate culture, and make major capital-allocation decisions. Our managers have returned this trust by working hard and effectively. For their performance over the last 42 years – and particularly for 2006 – Charlie and I thank them.

Yardsticks

Yardsticks

查理和我用多种方式衡量伯克希尔的进展、评估其内在价值。没有任何单一指标能独当此任,即便海量统计数据,也无法捕捉某些重要因素。例如,必须有远比我年轻的经理人来接替我的位置,这至关重要。伯克希尔在这方面从未像现在这样到位——但这一点我没法用数字向你证明。不过,有两项统计数据确实举足轻重。第一项是我们按每股计算的持股量(含现金及现金等价物)。计算这一数字时,我们剔除金融业务中持有的投资,因为那些投资大多与借款相互抵消。以下是现任管理层取得伯克希尔控制权以来的记录:

Charlie and I measure Berkshire’s progress and evaluate its intrinsic value in a number of ways. No single criterion is effective in doing these jobs, and even an avalanche of statistics will not capture some factors that are important. For example, it’s essential that we have managers much younger than I available to succeed me. Berkshire has never been in better shape in this regard – but I can’t prove it to you with numbers. There are two statistics, however, that are of real importance. The first is the amount of investments (including cash and cash-equivalents) that we own on a per-share basis. Arriving at this figure, we exclude investments held in our finance operation because these are largely offset by borrowings. Here’s the record since present management acquired control of Berkshire:

Year

Year

每股投资额*

Per-Share Investments*

1965 …
1975 …
1985 …
1995 …
2006 …
1965-2006 年复合增长率 …
1995-2006 年复合增长率 …
*扣除少数股东权益
1965 .....................................................................
1975 .....................................................................
1985 .....................................................................
1995 .....................................................................
2006 .....................................................................
Compound Growth Rate 1965-2006....................
Compound Growth Rate 1995-2006....................
*Net of minority interests

$

$

4 159 2,407 21,817 $80,636 27.5% 12.6%
4 159 2,407 21,817 $80,636 27.5% 12.6%

在我们早年,我们大部分留存收益和保险浮存金都投向了可交易证券。由于这一侧重,加上我们购得的证券通常表现良好,长期以来我们的投资增长率相当高。然而,随着时间推移,我们越来越专注于收购运营企业。将资金用于这些收购,既减缓了我们在投资上的增长,又加速了我们税前盈利中非保险业务收益的增长,这是我们使用的第二个衡量标准。情况如下:

In our early years we put most of our retained earnings and insurance float into investments in marketable securities. Because of this emphasis, and because the securities we purchased generally did well, our growth rate in investments was for a long time quite high. Over the years, however, we have focused more and more on the acquisition of operating businesses. Using our funds for these purchases has both slowed our growth in investments and accelerated our gains in pre-tax earnings from non-insurance businesses, the second yardstick we use. Here’s how

那些盈利看起来是这样的:

those earnings have looked:

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Year

Year

*税前每股收益*

Pre-Tax Earnings Per Share*

4年每股税前收益*
1965$ 4
19754
198552
1995175
2006$3,625
复合增长率1965-200617.9%
复合增长率1995-200631.7%
4 YearPre-Tax Earnings Per Share*
1965$ 4
19754
198552
1995175
2006$3,625
Compound Growth Rate 1965-200617.9%
Compound Growth Rate 1995-200631.7%

1965-2006 年复合增长率

Compound Growth Rate 1965-2006 ....................

17.9%
17.9%

复合增长率 1995-2006 …31.7% *扣除收购会计调整并剔除少数股东权益后 去年我们的非保险业务利润增长不错,达到 38%。但往后要想实现大幅增长,只能依靠我们完成重大而明智的收购。这并不容易。不过,我们确实有一个优势:伯克希尔正越来越成为企业主和管理者眼中的“首选买家”。起初,这种认可只局限于美国国内(而且更多时候是私营企业)。尽管如此,我们一直渴望把伯克希尔的吸引力拓展到美国以外。去年,我们的全球布局终于迈开了步伐。

Compound Growth Rate 1995-2006 .................... 31.7% *Excluding purchase-accounting adjustments and net of minority interests Last year we had a good increase in non-insurance earnings – 38%. Large gains from here on in, though, will come only if we are able to make major, and sensible, acquisitions. That will not be easy. We do, however, have one advantage: More and more, Berkshire has become “the buyer of choice” for business owners and managers. Initially, we were viewed that way only in the U.S. (and more often than not by private companies). We’ve long wanted, nonetheless, to extend Berkshire’s appeal beyond U.S. borders. And last year, our globe-trotting finally got underway.

Acquisitions

Acquisitions

2006 年初,我们完成了 2005 年底待定的三项收购,斥资约 60 亿美元买下太平洋电力公司、美国商业资讯和 Applied Underwriters。这三家目前都经营得非常好。不过,这一年最引人注目的是 7 月 5 日对以色列公司伊斯卡大部分股权的收购,以及与其董事长伊坦·韦特海默和首席执行官雅各布·哈帕兹的新合作。这个故事始于 2005 年 10 月 25 日,那天我收到伊坦的一封 1.25 页的信,当时我对他一无所知。信的开头写道:“我写这封信是想向您介绍伊斯卡。”接着描述了这家在 61 个国家开展业务的切削工具公司。然后伊坦写道:“我们思考了大型家族企业常见的代际传承和所有权问题已有段时间,并对伊斯卡的未来进行了深入考虑。我们的结论是,伯克希尔·哈撒韦会是伊斯卡理想的家。我们相信,伊斯卡会成为您业务组合中的一部分并继续蓬勃发展。”整封信读下来,公司的质量和管理的品格跃然纸上。这也让我想了解更多,于是 11 月,伊坦、雅各布和伊斯卡的首席财务官丹尼·戈德曼来到奥马哈。和他们相处几个小时,我就确信,如果我们达成交易,将和一群才华横溢的管理者合作,他们在出售后仍会以从前那般精力和奉献精神经营公司。然而,我从未买过美国以外的企业(虽然买过一些外国股票),所以需要了解一些税收和司法管辖方面的问题。完成这项任务后,伯克希尔以 40 亿美元买下伊斯卡 80% 的股权,其余 20% 留在韦特海默家族手中,他们成为我们宝贵的合作伙伴。伊斯卡的产品是小型、耗材性的切削工具,配合大型昂贵的机床使用。这生意本身没什么神奇,神奇之处全在经营它的人。但伊坦、雅各布和他们的同事堪称管理魔术师,不断开发新工具,让客户的机器产能更高。结果就是:伊斯卡赚钱,因为它让客户能赚到更多钱。没有比这更好的持续成功之道了。

We began 2006 by completing the three acquisitions pending at yearend 2005, spending about $6 billion for PacifiCorp, Business Wire and Applied Underwriters. All are performing very well. The highlight of the year, however, was our July 5th acquisition of most of ISCAR, an Israeli company, and our new association with its chairman, Eitan Wertheimer, and CEO, Jacob Harpaz. The story here began on October 25, 2005, when I received a 1¼-page letter from Eitan, of whom I then knew nothing. The letter began, “I am writing to introduce you to ISCAR,” and proceeded to describe a cuttingtool business carried on in 61 countries. Then Eitan wrote, “We have for some time considered the issues of generational transfer and ownership that are typical for large family enterprises, and have given much thought to ISCAR’s future. Our conclusion is that Berkshire Hathaway would be the ideal home for ISCAR. We believe that ISCAR would continue to thrive as a part of your portfolio of businesses.” Overall, Eitan’s letter made the quality of the company and the character of its management leap off the page. It also made me want to learn more, and in November, Eitan, Jacob and ISCAR’s CFO, Danny Goldman, came to Omaha. A few hours with them convinced me that if we were to make a deal, we would be teaming up with extraordinarily talented managers who could be trusted to run the business after a sale with all of the energy and dedication that they had exhibited previously. However, having never bought a business based outside of the U.S. (though I had bought a number of foreign stocks), I needed to get educated on some tax and jurisdictional matters. With that task completed, Berkshire purchased 80% of ISCAR for $4 billion. The remaining 20% stays in the hands of the Wertheimer family, making it our valued partner. ISCAR’s products are small, consumable cutting tools that are used in conjunction with large and expensive machine tools. It’s a business without magic except for that imparted by the people who run it. But Eitan, Jacob and their associates are true managerial magicians who constantly develop tools that make their customers’ machines more productive. The result: ISCAR makes money because it enables its customers to make more money. There is no better recipe for continued success.

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9 月,我和查理,连同伯克希尔的五位同事,一起参观了位于以色列的伊斯卡公司。我们——我指的是我们每一个人——从未对任何一家企业感到如此佩服。在伊斯卡,就像整个以色列一样,智慧和精力无处不在。伯克希尔的股东们很幸运能与伊坦、雅各布、丹尼以及他们才华横溢的同事们携手合作。

In September, Charlie and I, along with five Berkshire associates, visited ISCAR in Israel. We – and I mean every one of us – have never been more impressed with any operation. At ISCAR, as throughout Israel, brains and energy are ubiquitous. Berkshire shareholders are lucky to have joined with Eitan, Jacob, Danny and their talented associates.

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几个月后,伯克希尔在一笔由我的朋友、沃斯堡的约翰·罗奇牵线的交易中,再次成为“首选买家”。各位或许还记得,约翰曾担任贾斯汀工业公司的董事长,我们在 2000 年收购了这家公司。当时,约翰正在帮助身患绝症的约翰·贾斯汀为他的公司寻找一个永久的归宿。我们收购贾斯汀工业后不久,约翰·贾斯汀便去世了,但公司此后一直按照我们向他承诺的方式运营。11 月,约翰·罗奇来访时,带来了保罗·安德鲁斯二世,他持有 TTI 约 80% 的股份,这家公司是沃斯堡的电子元件分销商。保罗用 35 年时间,把 TTI 的销售额从 11.2 万美元做到了 13 亿美元。他是一位出色的企业家和经营者。保罗今年 64 岁,热爱经营自己的事业。但不久前,他亲眼目睹了创始人去世对私营企业员工和创始人家庭的双重冲击,这种冲击起初只是混乱,往往还会演变成破坏。因此,大约一年前,保罗开始考虑出售 TTI。他的目标是把公司交到一位他精心挑选的 owner 手中,而不是让信托官员或律师在他身后搞一场拍卖。保罗拒绝了“战略型”买家的想法,他清楚,这类买家为了追求“协同效应”,很可能会拆散他费尽心血构建的事业,此举会连根拔起数百名同伴(还可能在这个过程中伤及 TTI 的业务)。他也排除了私募股权公司,这类公司极有可能给公司背上债务,然后尽快转手。剩下的选择就是伯克希尔。保罗和我在 11 月 15 日早上见面,午饭前就达成了协议。后来他写信给我:“我们的会面之后,我确信伯克希尔是 TTI 的合适归宿……我为我们的过去感到骄傲,也对我们的未来充满期待。”查理和我也有同感。

A few months later, Berkshire again became “the buyer of choice” in a deal brought to us by my friend, John Roach, of Fort Worth. John, many of you will remember, was Chairman of Justin Industries, which we bought in 2000. At that time John was helping John Justin, who was terminally ill, find a permanent home for his company. John Justin died soon after we bought Justin Industries, but it has since been run exactly as we promised him it would be. Visiting me in November, John Roach brought along Paul Andrews, Jr., owner of about 80% of TTI, a Fort Worth distributor of electronic components. Over a 35-year period, Paul built TTI from $112,000 of sales to $1.3 billion. He is a remarkable entrepreneur and operator. Paul, 64, loves running his business. But not long ago he happened to witness how disruptive the death of a founder can be both to a private company’s employees and the owner’s family. What starts out as disruptive, furthermore, often evolves into destructive. About a year ago, therefore, Paul began to think about selling TTI. His goal was to put his business in the hands of an owner he had carefully chosen, rather than allowing a trust officer or lawyer to conduct an auction after his death. Paul rejected the idea of a “strategic” buyer, knowing that in the pursuit of “synergies,” an owner of that type would be apt to dismantle what he had so carefully built, a move that would uproot hundreds of his associates (and perhaps wound TTI’s business in the process). He also ruled out a private equity firm, which would very likely load the company with debt and then flip it as soon as possible. That left Berkshire. Paul and I met on the morning of November 15th and made a deal before lunch. Later he wrote me: “After our meeting, I am confident that Berkshire is the right owner for TTI . . . I am proud of our past and excited about our future.” And so are Charlie and I.

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2006 年,我们在水果织布机公司(Fruit of the Loom)、米泰克公司、CTB、肖氏工业和克莱顿住宅做了一些“添购式”收购。水果织布机的收购规模最大。首先,它买下了罗素公司,一家领先的运动服装和制服生产商,价格约 12 亿美元(含承担的债务);12 月,它又同意收购 VF 公司的内衣业务。这两笔收购合计为水果织布机增加约 22 亿美元销售额,带来约 2.3 万名员工。查理和我乐于看到,能把生意交给像水果织布机的约翰·霍兰德这样已经在伯克希尔证明过自己的管理者。比如,米泰克自 2001 年被我们收购以来完成了 14 笔收购,吉恩·图姆斯在这些交易中交出的成绩远超他自己当初的预测。说到底,我们靠这些添购式交易放大了手头管理人才的杠杆作用。以后我们还会做更多这类交易。

We also made some “tuck-in” acquisitions during 2006 at Fruit of the Loom (“Fruit”), MiTek, CTB, Shaw and Clayton. Fruit made the largest purchases. First, it bought Russell Corp., a leading producer of athletic apparel and uniforms for about $1.2 billion (including assumed debt) and in December it agreed to buy the intimate apparel business of VF Corp. Together, these acquisitions add about $2.2 billion to Fruit’s sales and bring with them about 23,000 employees. Charlie and I love it when we can acquire businesses that can be placed under managers, such as John Holland at Fruit, who have already shown their stuff at Berkshire. MiTek, for example, has made 14 acquisitions since we purchased it in 2001, and Gene Toombs has delivered results from these deals far in excess of what he had predicted. In effect, we leverage the managerial talent already with us by these tuckin deals. We will make many more.

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然而,为了动用伯克希尔源源不断的现金,我们仍需“大象”级别的收购目标。查理和我必须放弃追逐小猎物,把收购目光投向更大的目标。我们的榜样是那位老兄,他在超市购物时,推着购物车撞上了一位年轻得多的小伙子。老者歉意地解释说,他刚才找老伴儿找得心不在焉。新结识的小伙子说,巧了,他老婆也走丢了,建议不如两人一起找,效率更高。老者点头同意,问小伙子他妻子长什么样。“她是个金发大美女,”小伙子答道,“身材火辣得能让主教都忍不住要从彩绘玻璃窗里钻出去看,穿着紧身白色短裤。您太太呢?”老者言简意赅:“别找她了,咱们找你太太吧。”

We continue, however, to need “elephants” in order for us to use Berkshire’s flood of incoming cash. Charlie and I must therefore ignore the pursuit of mice and focus our acquisition efforts on much bigger game. Our exemplar is the older man who crashed his grocery cart into that of a much younger fellow while both were shopping. The elderly man explained apologetically that he had lost track of his wife and was preoccupied searching for her. His new acquaintance said that by coincidence his wife had also wandered off and suggested that it might be more efficient if they jointly looked for the two women. Agreeing, the older man asked his new companion what his wife looked like. “She’s a gorgeous blonde,” the fellow answered, “with a body that would cause a bishop to go through a stained glass window, and she’s wearing tight white shorts. How about yours?” The senior citizen wasted no words: “Forget her, we’ll look for yours.”

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我们在寻找的目标在第 25 页有说明。如果你手头有符合要求的收购对象,随时给我打电话——不分昼夜。然后,你就能亲眼看到我打碎一扇彩色玻璃窗。

What we are looking for is described on page 25. If you have an acquisition candidate that fits, call me – day or night. And then watch me shatter a stained glass window.

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现在我们来审视伯克希尔的四大主要运营板块。把它们的财务数字混在一起不利于分析。因此,我们将其视为四家独立的企业,先从至关重要的保险集团说起。

Now, let’s examine the four major operating sectors of Berkshire. Lumping their financial figures together impedes analysis. So we’ll look at them as four separate businesses, starting with the all– important insurance group.

Insurance

Insurance

下个月就是我们进入保险业 40 周年。1967 年 3 月 9 日,伯克希尔以 860 万美元从杰克·林沃特手中收购了国民赔偿公司及其姊妹公司国民火险与海洋保险公司。杰克是我的老朋友,一位出色但有点古怪的商人。每年大约有十分钟,他会兴起卖掉公司的冲动。但这种情绪——也许是跟监管者闹别扭,或者陪审团作出了不利裁决——很快就消失了。60 年代中期,我请投资银行家查理·海德——我和杰克的共同朋友——在杰克下次“发情”时提醒我。查理的电话打来时,我飞快赶去见了杰克。几分钟内我们就谈成了交易,我放弃了审计、“尽职调查”或其他任何可能让杰克重新考虑的机会。我们只是握了握手,就这么定了。等我们要在查理办公室完成交割时,杰克迟到了。他最终赶到,解释说一直在开车找还有剩余时间的停车计时器。那一刻对我来说很神奇。我当时就知道杰克会是我想要的那种经理人。伯克希尔收购杰克的两家保险公司时,它们有 1700 万美元的“浮存金”。我们在以前的年报里经常对浮存金作长篇解释,你可以在我们网站上读到。简单说,浮存金是我们持有的、不属于我们但可以拿去投资的资金。2006 年底,我们的浮存金增长到 509 亿美元,此后我们又与 Equitas 签了一份巨额追溯再保险合同——我将在下一节介绍——又增加了 70 亿美元浮存金。我们取得的增长有很大一部分来自收购其他保险公司,但我们也取得了出色的内生增长,尤其是在阿吉特·贾恩那个令人惊叹的再保险业务里。当然,1967 年我根本没想到浮存金会发展成今天这样。每天脚踏实地一步一个脚印,自有其道理。追溯再保险合同带来的浮存金——我们有很多这类合同——会随时间自动慢慢减少。因此,除非我们在保险领域做新的收购,未来增加浮存金会很困难。不过,无论规模大小,伯克希尔浮存金的成本——这一点至关重要——长期来看很可能显著低于行业水平,甚至可能降到零以下。注意“长期”这两个字。偶尔会有糟糕的年份。这一点你可以肯定。但 2006 年,保险业务一切顺利——确实顺利。我们的经理人——托尼·奈斯利(GEICO)、阿吉特·贾恩(B-H 再保险)、乔·布兰登和塔德·蒙特罗斯(通用再保险)、唐·沃斯特(国民赔偿主业)、汤姆·纳尼(美国责任险)、蒂姆·凯内西(医疗保护)、罗德·埃尔德里德(本州公司和赛普拉斯)、西德·费伦茨和史蒂夫·门齐斯(应用承保人)、约翰·凯泽(中央州)、唐·托利(堪萨斯银行家担保)——简直把灯都打灭了。我念这些名字时,感觉自己就像在库珀斯敦读名人堂名单。当然,整个保险行业 2006 年也过得很棒。但我们的经理人交出的成绩普遍优于竞争对手。

Next month marks the 40th anniversary of our entrance into the insurance business. It was on March 9, 1967, that Berkshire purchased National Indemnity and its companion company, National Fire & Marine, from Jack Ringwalt for $8.6 million. Jack was a long-time friend of mine and an excellent, but somewhat eccentric, businessman. For about ten minutes every year he would get the urge to sell his company. But those moods – perhaps brought on by a tiff with regulators or an unfavorable jury verdict – quickly vanished. In the mid-1960s, I asked investment banker Charlie Heider, a mutual friend of mine and Jack’s, to alert me the next time Jack was “in heat.” When Charlie’s call came, I sped to meet Jack. We made a deal in a few minutes, with me waiving an audit, “due diligence” or anything else that would give Jack an opportunity to reconsider. We just shook hands, and that was that. When we were due to close the purchase at Charlie’s office, Jack was late. Finally arriving, he explained that he had been driving around looking for a parking meter with some unexpired time. That was a magic moment for me. I knew then that Jack was going to be my kind of manager. When Berkshire purchased Jack’s two insurers, they had “float” of $17 million. We’ve regularly offered a long explanation of float in earlier reports, which you can read on our website. Simply put, float is money we hold that is not ours but which we get to invest. At the end of 2006, our float had grown to $50.9 billion, and we have since written a huge retroactive reinsurance contract with Equitas – which I will describe in the next section – that boosts float by another $7 billion. Much of the gain we’ve made has come through our acquisition of other insurers, but we’ve also had outstanding internal growth, particularly at Ajit Jain’s amazing reinsurance operation. Naturally, I had no notion in 1967 that our float would develop as it has. There’s much to be said for just putting one foot in front of the other every day. The float from retroactive reinsurance contracts, of which we have many, automatically drifts down over time. Therefore, it will be difficult for us to increase float in the future unless we make new acquisitions in the insurance field. Whatever its size, however, the all-important cost of Berkshire’s float over time is likely to be significantly below that of the industry, perhaps even falling to less than zero. Note the words “over time.” There will be bad years periodically. You can be sure of that. In 2006, though, everything went right in insurance – really right. Our managers – Tony Nicely (GEICO), Ajit Jain (B-H Reinsurance), Joe Brandon and Tad Montross (General Re), Don Wurster (National Indemnity Primary), Tom Nerney (U.S. Liability), Tim Kenesey (Medical Protective), Rod Eldred (Homestate Companies and Cypress), Sid Ferenc and Steve Menzies (Applied Underwriters), John Kizer (Central States) and Don Towle (Kansas Bankers Surety) – simply shot the lights out. When I recite their names, I feel as if I’m at Cooperstown, reading from the Hall of Fame roster. Of course, the overall insurance industry also had a terrific year in 2006. But our managers delivered results generally superior to those of their competitors.

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以下是各主要保险板块的承保利润与浮存金情况一览。尽情欣赏,因为短时间内您不会再看到这样的景象。(单位:百万美元)承保利润(亏损)

Below is the tally on our underwriting and float for each major sector of insurance. Enjoy the view, because you won’t soon see another like it. (in $ millions) Underwriting Profit (Loss)

Yearend Float

Yearend Float

(以百万美元计) 承保利润(亏损)年末浮动
保险运营2006 20052006 2005
通用再保险公司$ 526 $( 334)$22,827 $22,920
B-H再保险1,658 (1,069)16,860 16,233
GEICO1,314 1,2217,171 6,692
其他主要业务340** 235*4,029 3,442
总计$3,838 $ 53$50,887 $49,287
(in $ millions) Underwriting Profit (Loss)Yearend Float
Insurance Operations2006 20052006 2005
General Re$ 526 $( 334)$22,827 $22,920
B-H Reinsurance1,658 (1,069)16,860 16,233
GEICO1,314 1,2217,171 6,692
Other Primary340** 235*4,029 3,442
Total$3,838 $ 53$50,887 $49,287

GEICO …

GEICO .............................

1,314 1,221 7,171 6,692 其他主要业务 …3.4 亿美元** 2.35 亿美元* 4,029 3,442 合计 …38.38 亿美元 5300 万美元 508.87 亿美元 492.87 亿美元 * 包括自 2005 年 6 月 30 日起并入的 MedPro。 ** 包括自 2006 年 5 月 19 日起并入的 Applied Underwriters。

1,314 1,221 7,171 6,692 Other Primary................... 340** 235* 4,029 3,442 Total ................................. $3,838 $ 53 $50,887 $49,287 * Includes MedPro from June 30, 2005. ** Includes Applied Underwriters from May 19, 2006.

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2007 年,我们的保险主营业务的业绩会下滑,不过我认为结果仍会令人满意。最大的变数是巨灾再保险。2004-05 年的严重飓风季只是偶然吗?还是说它们是我们这个星球发出的首个警告,预示 21 世纪的气候将与我们过去所见大不相同?如果第二个问题的答案是肯定的,那么 2006 年很快就会被认为是暴风雨来临前那段误导人心的平静期。这些风暴可能会动摇整个保险业。把卡特里娜飓风视为接近最坏情况的想法太过天真。无论是负责我们巨灾再保险业务的阿吉特·贾恩,还是我本人,都不知道未来会怎样。我们确实知道的是,如果赌气候演变对保险公司的影响是良性的,那将是一个巨大的错误。不过,别以为我们失去了对风险的兴趣。我们依然准备好在单一事件中亏损 6 亿美元,前提是我们因承担这一风险而获得了合理的保费。但我们不愿意在保费无法反映我们对损失概率评估的情况下,哪怕承保很小的风险敞口。合理的保费并不能保证任何年份都有利润,但不合理的保费几乎必然会带来最终的亏损。近来费率已经下降,因为大量资本涌入巨灾再保险领域。因此,我们大幅减少了风灾风险敞口。我们在此处的做法与在金融市场中的策略如出一辙:别人贪婪时我恐惧,别人恐惧时我贪婪。

In 2007, our results from the bread-and-butter lines of insurance will deteriorate, though I think they will remain satisfactory. The big unknown is super-cat insurance. Were the terrible hurricane seasons of 2004-05 aberrations? Or were they our planet’s first warning that the climate of the 21st Century will differ materially from what we’ve seen in the past? If the answer to the second question is yes, 2006 will soon be perceived as a misleading period of calm preceding a series of devastating storms. These could rock the insurance industry. It’s naïve to think of Katrina as anything close to a worst-case event. Neither Ajit Jain, who manages our super-cat operation, nor I know what lies ahead. We do know that it would be a huge mistake to bet that evolving atmospheric changes are benign in their implications for insurers. Don’t think, however, that we have lost our taste for risk. We remain prepared to lose $6 billion in a single event, if we have been paid appropriately for assuming that risk. We are not willing, though, to take on even very small exposures at prices that don’t reflect our evaluation of loss probabilities. Appropriate prices don’t guarantee profits in any given year, but inappropriate prices most certainly guarantee eventual losses. Rates have recently fallen because a flood of capital has entered the super-cat field. We have therefore sharply reduced our wind exposures. Our behavior here parallels that which we employ in financial markets: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.

劳合社、Equitas 与追溯性再保险

Lloyd’s, Equitas and Retroactive Reinsurance

去年——我们说到 Equitas 了——伯克希尔同意签订一份巨额追溯再保险合同,这种保单保护保险公司免受已经发生、但成本尚不明确的损失。我稍后会告诉你协议细节。不过先让我们穿越保险史,沿着通往这笔交易的路径走一趟。故事大约始于 1688 年,爱德华·劳埃德在伦敦开了一家小咖啡馆。虽不是星巴克,但他的店注定名扬天下,因为它的顾客——船主、商人和敢于冒险的英国资本家——在这里进行商业活动。这些人一边啜饮爱德华的咖啡,一边开始签订合同,把海难风险从船东和货主身上转嫁给那些赌某次航行平安无事的资本家。这些资本家后来被称为“劳合社承保人”。虽然很多人以为劳合社是一家保险公司,其实不是。它是一个许多成员保险公司开展业务的场所,就像几个世纪前那样。随着时间的推移,承保人邀请被动投资者加入辛迪加。此外,业务也从海上风险扩展到各种能想到的保险类别,包括那些让劳合社名声远扬的奇异险种。承保人离开咖啡馆,搬进更气派的场所,并制定了正式的联合规则。而那些被动出资支持承保人的人,则被称为“会员”。

Last year – we are getting now to Equitas – Berkshire agreed to enter into a huge retroactive reinsurance contract, a policy that protects an insurer against losses that have already happened, but whose cost is not yet known. I’ll give you details of the agreement shortly. But let’s first take a journey through insurance history, following the route that led to our deal. Our tale begins around 1688, when Edward Lloyd opened a small coffee house in London. Though no Starbucks, his shop was destined to achieve worldwide fame because of the commercial activities of its clientele – shipowners, merchants and venturesome British capitalists. As these parties sipped Edward’s brew, they began to write contracts transferring the risk of a disaster at sea from the owners of ships and their cargo to the capitalists, who wagered that a given voyage would be completed without incident. These capitalists eventually became known as “underwriters at Lloyd’s.” Though many people believe Lloyd’s to be an insurance company, that is not the case. It is instead a place where many member-insurers transact business, just as they did centuries ago. Over time, the underwriters solicited passive investors to join in syndicates. Additionally, the business broadened beyond marine risks into every imaginable form of insurance, including exotic coverages that spread the fame of Lloyd’s far and wide. The underwriters left the coffee house, found grander quarters and formalized some rules of association. And those persons who passively backed the underwriters became known as “names.”

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最终,劳合社的“承保人”名单上汇聚了来自世界各地的成千上万人,他们加入时指望不费吹灰之力、不担太大风险就能赚点外快。没错,潜在的承保人总会被郑重告知,他们将对辛迪加承保的后果承担无限且永久的责任——用那句老话说,就是“直到最后一颗袖扣”。但这一警告渐渐被视为走过场。三百年来留存下来的袖扣,对那些跃跃欲试的承保人来说,是一剂强大的镇静剂。接着,石棉案来了。当它的潜在索赔成本叠加到 20 世纪 80 年代涌现的环保和产品责任索赔大潮中时,劳合社开始崩裂。几十年前签下、大多已被遗忘的保单,正在制造巨额亏损。没有人能明智地估算出总额,但肯定高达数百亿美元。无休止、无上限的损失阴影,吓坏了现有承保人,也吓跑了潜在加入者。许多人选择破产,有人甚至自杀。在一片废墟之上,人们拼命试图重振劳合社。1996 年,该机构的管理层拨出 111 亿英镑给一家新公司 Equitas,由其负责支付 1993 年之前签下的所有保单索赔。实际上,这个方案把众多陷入困境的辛迪加的苦难集中到了一处。当然,拨出的资金可能不够——如果真的不够,承保人仍要承担差额。但新方案把所有负债集中在一个地方,有一个好处:消除了辛迪加之间大量内耗高昂的争执。此外,集中处理让索赔评估、谈判和诉讼比以往处理得更明智。Equitas 秉承了本·富兰克林的思想:“我们必须同舟共济,否则必将分别被绞死。”从一开始,很多人就预测 Equitas 最终会失败。但 2006 年春天——最后一份受风险暴露的保单签出 13 年之后、已支付 113 亿英镑索赔之后——阿吉特和我审视了事实,得出结论:这个病人很可能能活下来。于是我们决定向 Equitas 提供一份巨额再保险保单。因为仍然存在许多难以预测的因素,伯克希尔无法给 Equitas 及其 27972 名承保人提供无限保障。但我们表示——我简化一下——如果 Equitas 给我们 71.2 亿美元的现金和证券(这就是我前面说的浮存金),我们将支付其未来所有索赔和费用,上限为 139 亿美元。这个数字比 Equitas 近期估算的最终负债高出 57 亿美元。这样一来,承保人获得了巨额——几乎可以肯定足够——的未来保障,以应对不愉快的意外。事实上,保障额度之大,以至于 Equitas 计划向数千名承保人支付一笔现金,这是他们中几乎没人敢想象的事。那伯克希尔会怎么样?这取决于“已知”索赔最终要花我们多少钱、还会冒出多少尚未提出的索赔及其成本、索赔支付的速度有多快,以及我们在支付之前能靠收到的现金赚多少。阿吉特和我认为赔率对我们有利。就算我们判断错了,伯克希尔也能扛得住。Equitas 首席执行官斯科特·莫泽对这笔交易总结得很到位:“承保人想晚上睡个安稳觉,我们认为我们刚给他们买到了全世界最好的床垫。”

Eventually, the names came to include many thousands of people from around the world, who joined expecting to pick up some extra change without effort or serious risk. True, prospective names were always solemnly told that they would have unlimited and everlasting liability for the consequences of their syndicate’s underwriting – “down to the last cufflink,” as the quaint description went. But that warning came to be viewed as perfunctory. Three hundred years of retained cufflinks acted as a powerful sedative to the names poised to sign up. Then came asbestos. When its prospective costs were added to the tidal wave of environmental and product claims that surfaced in the 1980s, Lloyd’s began to implode. Policies written decades earlier – and largely forgotten about – were developing huge losses. No one could intelligently estimate their total, but it was certain to be many tens of billions of dollars. The specter of unending and unlimited losses terrified existing names and scared away prospects. Many names opted for bankruptcy; some even chose suicide. From these shambles, there came a desperate effort to resuscitate Lloyd’s. In 1996, the powers that be at the institution allotted £11.1 billion to a new company, Equitas, and made it responsible for paying all claims on policies written before 1993. In effect, this plan pooled the misery of the many syndicates in trouble. Of course, the money allotted could prove to be insufficient – and if that happened, the names remained liable for the shortfall. But the new plan, by concentrating all of the liabilities in one place, had the advantage of eliminating much of the costly intramural squabbling that went on among syndicates. Moreover, the pooling allowed claims evaluation, negotiation and litigation to be handled more intelligently than had been the case previously. Equitas embraced Ben Franklin’s thinking: “We must all hang together, or assuredly we shall hang separately.” From the start, many people predicted Equitas would eventually fail. But as Ajit and I reviewed the facts in the spring of 2006 – 13 years after the last exposed policy had been written and after the payment of £11.3 billion in claims – we concluded that the patient was likely to survive. And so we decided to offer a huge reinsurance policy to Equitas. Because plenty of imponderables continue to exist, Berkshire could not provide Equitas, and its 27,972 names, unlimited protection. But we said – and I’m simplifying – that if Equitas would give us $7.12 billion in cash and securities (this is the float I spoke about), we would pay all of its future claims and expenses up to $13.9 billion. That amount was $5.7 billion above what Equitas had recently guessed its ultimate liabilities to be. Thus the names received a huge – and almost certainly sufficient – amount of future protection against unpleasant surprises. Indeed the protection is so large that Equitas plans a cash payment to its thousands of names, an event few of them had ever dreamed possible. And how will Berkshire fare? That depends on how much “known” claims will end up costing us, how many yet-to-be-presented claims will surface and what they will cost, how soon claim payments will be made and how much we earn on the cash we receive before it must be paid out. Ajit and I think the odds are in our favor. And should we be wrong, Berkshire can handle it. Scott Moser, the CEO of Equitas, summarized the transaction neatly: “Names wanted to sleep easy at night, and we think we’ve just bought them the world’s best mattress.”

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警告:该吃西兰花了——下面我要谈谈会计方面的事。这话是说给伯克希尔那些热爱看借贷记账的股东听的。希望你们两位都觉得这段讨论有用。其他人都可以跳过这一节;不会有测验。伯克希尔做了大量追溯性交易——无论笔数还是金额,都是其他保险公司此类保单的倍数。我们是这类保险的首选再保险方,因为转移给我们的义务——比如对受伤工人的终身赔偿和医疗费用——可能长达 50 年甚至更久都无法完全了结。没有其他公司能提供这种确定性

Warning: It’s time to eat your broccoli – I am now going to talk about accounting matters. I owe this to those Berkshire shareholders who love reading about debits and credits. I hope both of you find this discussion helpful. All others can skip this section; there will be no quiz. Berkshire has done many retroactive transactions – in both number and amount a multiple of such policies entered into by any other insurer. We are the reinsurer of choice for these coverages because the obligations that are transferred to us – for example, lifetime indemnity and medical payments to be made to injured workers – may not be fully satisfied for 50 years or more. No other company can offer the certainty

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伯克希尔在确保这些义务得到全面、公平结算方面的能力,这一点对原保险公司、投保人和监管机构都至关重要。追溯性交易的会计处理程序既不为众人熟知,也谈不上直观。因此,股东理解它的最佳方式,就是我们直接列出借方和贷方。查理和我希望这种做法能更频繁地出现。我们有时会遇到一些重要交易的会计脚注,读来令人困惑不解,事后我们怀疑,报告公司有意为之。(例如,即使你知道电影结局后,再去试着理解安然旧 10-K 文件中“描述”的那些交易,也会一头雾水。)所以,让我们总结一下我们对 Equitas 交易的会计处理。主要借方将是现金与投资、再保险可收回款项,以及分入再保险的递延费用(“DCRA”)。主要贷方将是损失及损失调整费用准备金。交易启动时不记录任何利润或亏损,但此后随着 DCRA 资产逐年摊销,每年会产生承保亏损。年度摊销费用的金额,主要取决于我们对未来损失支付时间和金额的年终估计,与年初估计相比有何变化。最终,当最后一笔索赔支付完毕,DCRA 账户将降至零。那一天距离现在还有 50 年或更久。要记住的关键点是,追溯性保险合同总会给我们带来承保亏损。这些亏损是否值得承受,取决于我们收到的现金能否产生超过这些亏损的投资收益。最近,我们的 DCRA 费用每年带来约 3 亿美元的承保亏损,但通过使用收到的保费现金所实现的收益,足以覆盖这些亏损。如果没有新的追溯性合同,年度费用的金额通常会随时间下降。然而,在 Equitas 交易之后,年度 DCRA 成本初期将上升至约 4.5 亿美元。这意味着,我们其他保险业务必须产生至少这么多承保利润,才能让整体浮存金实现零成本。这个数额相当高,但我相信在多数年份(即便不是大多数),我们能跨过这道坎。你岂不是庆幸我承诺过没有测验?

that Berkshire can, in terms of guaranteeing the full and fair settlement of these obligations. This fact is important to the original insurer, policyholders and regulators. The accounting procedure for retroactive transactions is neither well known nor intuitive. The best way for shareholders to understand it, therefore, is for us to simply lay out the debits and credits. Charlie and I would like to see this done more often. We sometimes encounter accounting footnotes about important transactions that leave us baffled, and we go away suspicious that the reporting company wished it that way. (For example, try comprehending transactions “described” in the old 10-Ks of Enron, even after you know how the movie ended.) So let us summarize our accounting for the Equitas transaction. The major debits will be to Cash and Investments, Reinsurance Recoverable, and Deferred Charges for Reinsurance Assumed (“DCRA”). The major credit will be to Reserve for Losses and Loss Adjustment Expense. No profit or loss will be recorded at the inception of the transaction, but underwriting losses will thereafter be incurred annually as the DCRA asset is amortized downward. The amount of the annual amortization charge will be primarily determined by how our end-of-the-year estimates as to the timing and amount of future loss payments compare to the estimates made at the beginning of the year. Eventually, when the last claim has been paid, the DCRA account will be reduced to zero. That day is 50 years or more away. What’s important to remember is that retroactive insurance contracts always produce underwriting losses for us. Whether these losses are worth experiencing depends on whether the cash we have received produces investment income that exceeds the losses. Recently our DCRA charges have annually delivered $300 million or so of underwriting losses, which have been more than offset by the income we have realized through use of the cash we received as a premium. Absent new retroactive contracts, the amount of the annual charge would normally decline over time. After the Equitas transaction, however, the annual DCRA cost will initially increase to about $450 million a year. This means that our other insurance operations must generate at least that much underwriting gain for our overall float to be cost-free. That amount is quite a hurdle but one that I believe we will clear in many, if not most, years. Aren’t you glad that I promised you there would be no quiz?

制造业、服务业和零售业务

Manufacturing, Service and Retailing Operations

我们在伯克希尔的这部分业务涉足面非常广泛。不过,让我们先来看看整个集团的资产负债表和损益表的汇总情况。

资产负债汇总表 2006 年 12 月 31 日(单位:百万美元)

Our activities in this part of Berkshire cover the waterfront. Let’s look, though, at a summary balance sheet and earnings statement for the entire group. Balance Sheet 12/31/06 (in millions)

Assets

Assets

现金及等价物……应收账款及票据……存货……其他流动资产……流动资产合计……商誉及其他无形资产……固定资产……其他资产……

Cash and equivalents .............................. Accounts and notes receivable ............... Inventory ................................................ Other current assets ................................ Total current assets ................................. Goodwill and other intangibles............... Fixed assets............................................. Other assets.............................................

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

$ 1,543 3,793 5,257 363 10,956 13,314 8,934 1,168 $34,372
10
$ 1,543 3,793 5,257 363 10,956 13,314 8,934 1,168 $34,372
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负债与股东权益
应付票据 …
其他流动负债 …
流动负债合计 …
Liabilities and Equity
Notes payable ............................
Other current liabilities..............
Total current liabilities ..............
递延所得税…………………………
定期债务及其他负债…………
股东权益…………………………………
Deferred taxes............................
Term debt and other liabilities...
Equity ........................................
$ 1,468 6,635 8,103
540 3,014 22,715 $34,372
$ 1,468 6,635 8,103
540 3,014 22,715 $34,372

利润表(单位:百万美元)

Earnings Statement (in millions)

2006
2006

Revenues …

Revenues .................................................................................

$52,660
$52,660

经营费用(含折旧费用:2006 年 823 美元,2005 年 699 美元,2004 年 676 美元)………

Operating expenses (including depreciation of $823 in 2006, $699 in 2005 and $676 in 2004).......................................

49,002
49,002

Interest expense …

Interest expense .......................................................................

132
132

税前利润:

Pre-tax earnings.......................................................................

3,526*
3,526*

收入税和少数股东权益

Income taxes and minority interests ........................................

1,395
1,395

净利润 …2.131 亿美元 *不含收购会计调整。

Net income .............................................................................. $ 2,131 *Does not include purchase-accounting adjustments.

Earnings Statement (in millions) Revenues Operating expenses (including depreciation of $823 in 2006,2006 $52,6602005 $46,8962004 $44,142
$699 2005年及 $676 2004年)49,00244,19041,604
利息费用1328357
税前收益3,526*2,623*2,481*
所得税及少数股东权益1,395977941
净收入$ 2,131$ 1,646$ 1,540
Earnings Statement (in millions) Revenues Operating expenses (including depreciation of $823 in 2006,2006 $52,6602005 $46,8962004 $44,142
$699 in 2005 and $676 in 2004)49,00244,19041,604
Interest expense1328357
Pre-tax earnings3,526*2,623*2,481*
Income taxes and minority interests1,395977941
Net income$ 2,131$ 1,646$ 1,540

这个五花八门的组合,卖的东西从棒棒糖到房车都有,去年的平均有形净资产收益率达到了令人满意的 25%。同样值得注意的是,这些业务在实现这一回报时只用了很少的财务杠杆。显然,我们拥有一些非常出色的企业。不过,我们买入其中很多家时,相对净资产支付了很高的溢价——这一点反映在资产负债表上的商誉项目上——而这一事实把我们按平均账面价值计算的收益率拉低到了 10.8%。

This motley group, which sells products ranging from lollipops to motor homes, earned a pleasing 25% on average tangible net worth last year. It’s noteworthy also that these operations used only minor financial leverage in achieving that return. Clearly we own some terrific businesses. We purchased many of them, however, at large premiums to net worth – a point reflected in the goodwill item shown on the balance sheet – and that fact reduces the earnings on our average carrying value to 10.8%.

以下是该行业几家公司的一些值得关注的新闻动态:

Here are a few newsworthy items about companies in this sector:

鲍勃·肖是一位杰出的企业家,从零开始将肖氏工业打造成了全美最大的地毯生产商。去年,75 岁的他选择退休。在继任者问题上,鲍勃推荐了在肖氏工作 31 年的老将万斯·贝尔,这照例又是一步好棋。房地产市场的疲软导致地毯业务增长放缓,但肖氏依然是行业巨头,也是伯克希尔盈利的重要来源。

Bob Shaw, a remarkable entrepreneur who from a standing start built Shaw Industries into the country’s largest carpet producer, elected last year, at age 75, to retire. To succeed him, Bob recommended Vance Bell, a 31-year veteran at Shaw, and Bob, as usual, made the right call. Weakness in housing has caused the carpet business to slow. Shaw, however, remains a powerhouse and a major contributor to Berkshire’s earnings.

米泰克公司(MiTek)是我们 2001 年收购的一家屋顶桁架连接件制造商,如今正发展成一家迷你综合企业集团。按它目前的增长速度,“迷你”一词恐怕很快就不适用了。我们以 4.2 亿美元收购米泰克,其中向公司借出 2 亿美元,利率 9%,并买下 1.98 亿美元的股票,每股定价 1 万美元。此外,55 名员工自掏 2200 万美元买了 2200 股,每位员工付的价格和我们完全一样,多数人为此借了钱。他们现在肯定乐坏了!五年后,米泰克的销售额翻了三倍,股价涨到每股 71699 美元。尽管米泰克做了 14 笔收购,花了 2.91 亿美元,它却已还清欠伯克希尔的债务,手里还握着 3500 万美元现金。今年 7 月,我们开了个派对庆祝收购五周年。我跟大家说,要是米泰克的股价涨得超过伯克希尔的 A 股,那可就尴尬了。不过,真发生这种事也别惊讶(虽然我和查理会努力让我们的股价变成移动靶)。

MiTek, a manufacturer of connectors for roof trusses at the time we purchased it in 2001, is developing into a mini-conglomerate. At the rate it is growing, in fact, “mini” may soon be inappropriate. In purchasing MiTek for $420 million, we lent the company $200 million at 9% and bought $198 million of stock, priced at $10,000 per share. Additionally, 55 employees bought 2,200 shares for $22 million. Each employee paid exactly the same price that we did, in most cases borrowing money to do so. And are they ever glad they did! Five years later, MiTek’s sales have tripled and the stock is valued at $71,699 per share. Despite its making 14 acquisitions, at a cost of $291 million, MiTek has paid off its debt to Berkshire and holds $35 million of cash. We celebrated the fifth anniversary of our purchase with a party in July. I told the group that it would be embarrassing if MiTek’s stock price soared beyond that of Berkshire “A” shares. Don’t be surprised, however, if that happens (though Charlie and I will try to make our shares a moving target).

并非我们所有的业务都注定能持续增长利润。当行业的基本经济面开始崩溃时,即使管理有方,也仅能延缓衰退的步伐。但最终,根本性的衰退会压过管理上的才华。(正如一位睿智的朋友多年前对我说的:“若想博得好商人的名声,务必投身一门好生意。”)而报业的基本面确实在恶化,这一趋势已导致我们旗下的《布法罗新闻》利润下滑,且这一颓势几乎必然会继续。回想我和查理年轻时,报业曾是全美国最容易赚取丰厚回报的行业。正如一位不太聪明的出版商所言:“我的财富归功于美国两大伟大制度:垄断与裙带关系。”在只有一家报纸的城市里,无论产品质量多差、管理多无能,都能确保利润滚滚。该行业的惊人回报简单明了:20 世纪大部分时间里,报纸是美国公众获取信息的主要渠道,无论是体育、财经还是政治,报纸都占据着至高无上的地位。同样重要的是,报纸广告是寻找工作机会或了解镇上超市杂货价格的最便捷途径。

Not all of our businesses are destined to increase profits. When an industry’s underlying economics are crumbling, talented management may slow the rate of decline. Eventually, though, eroding fundamentals will overwhelm managerial brilliance. (As a wise friend told me long ago, “If you want to get a reputation as a good businessman, be sure to get into a good business.”) And fundamentals are definitely eroding in the newspaper industry, a trend that has caused the profits of our Buffalo News to decline. The skid will almost certainly continue. When Charlie and I were young, the newspaper business was as easy a way to make huge returns as existed in America. As one not-too-bright publisher famously said, “I owe my fortune to two great American institutions: monopoly and nepotism.” No paper in a one-paper city, however bad the product or however inept the management, could avoid gushing profits. The industry’s staggering returns could be simply explained. For most of the 20th Century, newspapers were the primary source of information for the American public. Whether the subject was sports, finance, or politics, newspapers reigned supreme. Just as important, their ads were the easiest way to find job opportunities or to learn the price of groceries at your town’s supermarkets.

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因此,绝大多数家庭每天都需要一份报纸,但可以理解的是,大多数人不想为两份报纸付费。广告商偏爱发行量最大的报纸,而读者往往倾向于选择广告和新闻版面最多的报纸。这种循环效应催生了报纸行业的丛林法则:最厚者生存。所以,当一座大城市里存在两份或更多报纸时(一个世纪前几乎普遍如此),领先的那份通常会脱颖而出,成为唯一的赢家。竞争消失后,报纸在广告和发行上的定价权便得到了释放。通常,广告商和读者的费率每年都会上调——利润随之滚滚而来。对所有者来说,这是经济天堂。(有趣的是,尽管报纸经常——且常以不赞同的口吻——报道汽车或钢铁行业的盈利情况,却从不向读者透露自己点石成金的财务状况。嗯……)早在 1991 年致股东的信中,我就断言这个封闭的世界正在改变,我写道:“媒体行业……将远不如我、行业本身或贷款机构几年前的预期那样美好。”一些出版商对我的这番话以及随后发出的其他警告感到不悦。此外,报纸产业仍像是不朽的印钞机一样被出售。事实上,许多常年在记录和分析世界重大事件的聪明报业高管,对自己眼皮底下发生的变化要么视而不见,要么漠不关心。然而,如今几乎所有报纸所有者都意识到,他们在争夺读者眼球的战争中不断败退。简单说,如果有线和卫星广播以及互联网先出现,我们所知的报纸很可能根本不会存在。在伯克希尔的版图中,斯坦·利普西出色地经营着《布法罗新闻》,我为它的主编玛格丽特·沙利文感到无比自豪。该报的市场渗透率在美国大型报纸中位居榜首。尽管布法罗的人口和商业趋势并不乐观,但我们的财务表现也好于大多数都市报纸。不过,这份业务仍面临持续压力,利润率将不断下滑。确实,我们拥有布法罗领先的在线新闻业务,它会继续吸引更多读者和广告。然而,报纸网站的经济潜力——考虑到网上有大量免费且随手可得的替代信息和娱乐来源——充其量只是过去无竞争环境下纸质报纸潜力的零头。对本地居民来说,拥有一份城市报纸,就像拥有一支体育队,仍能带来即时的显赫地位。随之而来的往往是权力和影响力。这些光环吸引着许多有钱人。此外,有公民意识的富裕人士可能觉得,本地所有权能更好地服务社区。这就是彼得·基维特在 40 多年前买下奥马哈报纸的原因。因此,我们很可能会看到非经济目的的个人买家收购报纸,就像我们看到有人收购大型体育特许经营权一样。但有抱负的报业巨头要小心:没有哪条规定说报纸收入不能低于支出,亏损不能膨胀。报业的固定成本很高,当单位销量下滑时,这真是坏消息。而且,随着报纸重要性的减退,拥有一份报纸的“精神”价值也会减弱,而拥有体育特许经营权可能仍保持其吸引力。除非面临不可逆转的现金流失,我们会坚持经营《布法罗新闻》,正如我们一直承诺的那样。(请阅读第 76 页的经济原则第 11 条。)查理和我热爱报纸——我们每天各读五份——并相信自由而充满活力的新闻界是维系伟大民主的关键要素。我们希望印刷版和在线版的某种结合能避免报纸的经济末日,我们会在布法罗努力开发可持续的商业模式。我认为我们会成功。但报纸带来丰厚利润的日子已经结束了。

The great majority of families therefore felt the need for a paper every day, but understandably most didn’t wish to pay for two. Advertisers preferred the paper with the most circulation, and readers tended to want the paper with the most ads and news pages. This circularity led to a law of the newspaper jungle: Survival of the Fattest. Thus, when two or more papers existed in a major city (which was almost universally the case a century ago), the one that pulled ahead usually emerged as the stand-alone winner. After competition disappeared, the paper’s pricing power in both advertising and circulation was unleashed. Typically, rates for both advertisers and readers would be raised annually – and the profits rolled in. For owners this was economic heaven. (Interestingly, though papers regularly – and often in a disapproving way – reported on the profitability of, say, the auto or steel industries, they never enlightened readers about their own Midas-like situation. Hmmm . . .) As long ago as my 1991 letter to shareholders, I nonetheless asserted that this insulated world was changing, writing that “the media businesses . . . will prove considerably less marvelous than I, the industry, or lenders thought would be the case only a few years ago.” Some publishers took umbrage at both this remark and other warnings from me that followed. Newspaper properties, moreover, continued to sell as if they were indestructible slot machines. In fact, many intelligent newspaper executives who regularly chronicled and analyzed important worldwide events were either blind or indifferent to what was going on under their noses. Now, however, almost all newspaper owners realize that they are constantly losing ground in the battle for eyeballs. Simply put, if cable and satellite broadcasting, as well as the internet, had come along first, newspapers as we know them probably would never have existed. In Berkshire’s world, Stan Lipsey does a terrific job running the Buffalo News, and I am enormously proud of its editor, Margaret Sullivan. The News’ penetration of its market is the highest among that of this country’s large newspapers. We also do better financially than most metropolitan newspapers, even though Buffalo’s population and business trends are not good. Nevertheless, this operation faces unrelenting pressures that will cause profit margins to slide. True, we have the leading online news operation in Buffalo, and it will continue to attract more viewers and ads. However, the economic potential of a newspaper internet site – given the many alternative sources of information and entertainment that are free and only a click away – is at best a small fraction of that existing in the past for a print newspaper facing no competition. For a local resident, ownership of a city’s paper, like ownership of a sports team, still produces instant prominence. With it typically comes power and influence. These are ruboffs that appeal to many people with money. Beyond that, civic-minded, wealthy individuals may feel that local ownership will serve their community well. That’s why Peter Kiewit bought the Omaha paper more than 40 years ago. We are likely therefore to see non-economic individual buyers of newspapers emerge, just as we have seen such buyers acquire major sports franchises. Aspiring press lords should be careful, however: There’s no rule that says a newspaper’s revenues can’t fall below its expenses and that losses can’t mushroom. Fixed costs are high in the newspaper business, and that’s bad news when unit volume heads south. As the importance of newspapers diminishes, moreover, the “psychic” value of possessing one will wane, whereas owning a sports franchise will likely retain its cachet. Unless we face an irreversible cash drain, we will stick with the News, just as we’ve said that we would. (Read economic principle 11, on page 76.) Charlie and I love newspapers – we each read five a day – and believe that a free and energetic press is a key ingredient for maintaining a great democracy. We hope that some combination of print and online will ward off economic doomsday for newspapers, and we will work hard in Buffalo to develop a sustainable business model. I think we will be successful. But the days of lush profits from our newspaper are over.

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NetJets 公务航空的处境正在明显好转,这家公司销售并管理部分产权飞机。它的增长从来不是问题:自 1998 年我们收购以来,飞行运营收入增长了 596%。但利润一直起伏不定。我们 1996 年进入欧洲市场的举措代价尤其高昂。运营五年后,我们只积累了 80 个客户。到 2006 年年中,累计税前亏损已攀升至 2.12 亿美元。但如今欧洲需求爆发,2005-2006 年净增 589 个客户。在马克·布斯的出色领导下,NetJets 在欧洲已开始盈利运营,我们预计这一向好趋势会持续。我们的美国业务在 2006 年也表现不错,使 NetJets 去年全球税前盈利达到 1.43 亿美元。这一成绩是在第一季度亏损 1900 万美元的情况下取得的。这要归功于里奇·圣图利和马克的扭转。里奇和我们的许多经理人一样,并无经济压力非要工作不可,但你绝对看不出来。他不知疲倦——监控运营、促成销售、环球奔波,不断拉大 NetJets 对竞争对手已有的巨大领先优势。如今,我们管理机队的价值远超三大竞争对手管理的机队价值总和。NetJets 之所以遥遥领先,原因在于:它提供极致的安全与服务。在伯克希尔及我们的多家子公司,NetJets 飞机是不可或缺的商务工具。我个人也与 NetJets 签有私人使用合同,我的家人和大多数伯克希尔董事也一样。(顺便说一句,我们谁都没有折扣。)一旦体验过 NetJets 的飞行,再回到商业航班就像退回牵手恋爱的老路。

A much improved situation is emerging at NetJets, which sells and manages fractionally-owned aircraft. This company has never had a problem growing: Revenues from flight operations have increased 596% since our purchase in 1998. But profits had been erratic. Our move to Europe, which began in 1996, was particularly expensive. After five years of operation there, we had acquired only 80 customers. And by mid-year 2006 our cumulative pretax loss had risen to $212 million. But European demand has now exploded, with a net of 589 customers having been added in 2005-2006. Under Mark Booth’s brilliant leadership, NetJets is now operating profitably in Europe, and we expect the positive trend to continue. Our U.S. operation also had a good year in 2006, which led to worldwide pre-tax earnings of $143 million at NetJets last year. We made this profit even though we suffered a loss of $19 million in the first quarter. Credit Rich Santulli, along with Mark, for this turnaround. Rich, like many of our managers, has no financial need to work. But you’d never know it. He’s absolutely tireless – monitoring operations, making sales, and traveling the globe to constantly widen the already-enormous lead that NetJets enjoys over its competitors. Today, the value of the fleet we manage is far greater than that managed by our three largest competitors combined. There’s a reason NetJets is the runaway leader: It offers the ultimate in safety and service. At Berkshire, and at a number of our subsidiaries, NetJets aircraft are an indispensable business tool. I also have a contract for personal use with NetJets and so do members of my family and most Berkshire directors. (None of us, I should add, gets a discount.) Once you’ve flown NetJets, returning to commercial flights is like going back to holding hands.

监管公用事业业务

伯克希尔持有中美能源控股公司 86.6%(完全稀释后)的权益,该公司旗下拥有多种公用事业运营业务。其中规模最大的包括:(1)约克郡电力和北方电力,其 370 万电力客户使其成为英国第三大电力分销商;(2)中美能源公司,主要服务于爱荷华州的 70.6 万电力客户;(3)太平洋电力和落基山电力,为西部六个州约 170 万电力客户供电;(4)克恩河和北方天然气管线,输送量约占美国天然气消费量的 8%。我们在中美能源的共同持股方是沃尔特·斯科特,以及两位出色的管理者戴夫·索科尔和格雷格·阿贝尔。各方拥有多少表决权并不重要;只有在全体一致认为某项重大举措明智时,我们才会采取行动。与戴夫、格雷格和沃尔特共事六年,更加印证了我最初的判断:伯克希尔找不到更好的合作伙伴了。说起来有些不太搭调,中美能源还拥有美国第二大房地产经纪公司——美国房屋服务公司。该公司通过 20 家本地品牌的子公司运营,拥有 2.03 万名经纪人。尽管美国房屋服务公司去年收购了两家业务,但其总成交量还是下滑了 9%,降至 580 亿美元,利润则下降了 50%。住宅房地产活动的放缓,部分源于近年来宽松的贷款做法。过去流行的"选择性"合同和"诱饵"利率,让借款人在房贷初期支付的款项远低于正常利息成本。自然,当借款人几乎无需承担任何负担时,违约的情况就很少发生。正如一位愤世嫉俗者所言:"滚动贷款无坏账。"但未支付的款项会计入本金,而那些在初期付不起正常月供的借款人,日后面对的月供负担会超出常规。这就是斯嘉丽·奥哈拉的套路:"明天再想吧。"对许多房主来说,"明天"已然来临。因此,美国房屋服务公司所在的多个市场都积压了大量房源。尽管如此,我们仍会继续寻求收购更多经纪业务。十年之后,美国房屋服务公司几乎肯定会壮大得多。

Regulated Utility Business Berkshire has an 86.6% (fully diluted) interest in MidAmerican Energy Holdings, which owns a wide variety of utility operations. The largest of these are (1) Yorkshire Electricity and Northern Electric, whose 3.7 million electric customers make it the third largest distributor of electricity in the U.K.; (2) MidAmerican Energy, which serves 706,000 electric customers, primarily in Iowa; (3) Pacific Power and Rocky Mountain Power, serving about 1.7 million electric customers in six western states; and (4) Kern River and Northern Natural pipelines, which carry about 8% of the natural gas consumed in the U.S. Our partners in ownership of MidAmerican are Walter Scott, and its two terrific managers, Dave Sokol and Greg Abel. It’s unimportant how many votes each party has; we will make major moves only when we are unanimous in thinking them wise. Six years of working with Dave, Greg and Walter have underscored my original belief: Berkshire couldn’t have better partners. Somewhat incongruously, MidAmerican owns the second largest real estate brokerage firm in the U.S., HomeServices of America. This company operates through 20 locally-branded firms with 20,300 agents. Despite HomeServices’ purchase of two operations last year, the company’s overall volume fell 9% to $58 billion, and profits fell 50%. The slowdown in residential real estate activity stems in part from the weakened lending practices of recent years. The “optional” contracts and “teaser” rates that have been popular have allowed borrowers to make payments in the early years of their mortgages that fall far short of covering normal interest costs. Naturally, there are few defaults when virtually nothing is required of a borrower. As a cynic has said, “A rolling loan gathers no loss.” But payments not made add to principal, and borrowers who can’t afford normal monthly payments early on are hit later with above-normal monthly obligations. This is the Scarlett O’Hara scenario: “I’ll think about that tomorrow.” For many home owners, “tomorrow” has now arrived. Consequently there is a huge overhang of offerings in several of HomeServices’ markets. Nevertheless, we will be seeking to purchase additional brokerage operations. A decade from now, HomeServices will almost certainly be much larger.

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中美能源公司经营状况的关键数据如下:

Here are some key figures on MidAmerican’s operations:

英国公用事业…
爱荷华州公用事业…
西部公用事业(2006 年 3 月 21 日收购)…
管道…
房屋服务…
其他(净额)…
公司利息及税前利润…
除伯克希尔外的利息…
伯克希尔次级债务利息…
所得税…
净利润…
归属于伯克希尔的利润*…
欠他人的债务…
欠伯克希尔的债务…
U.K. utilities .......................................................................................................
Iowa utility .........................................................................................................
Western utilities (acquired March 21, 2006) .....................................................
Pipelines .............................................................................................................
HomeServices.....................................................................................................
Other (net) ..........................................................................................................
Earnings before corporate interest and taxes ......................................................
Interest, other than to Berkshire .........................................................................
Interest on Berkshire junior debt ........................................................................
Income tax ..........................................................................................................
Net earnings........................................................................................................
Earnings applicable to Berkshire* ......................................................................
Debt owed to others............................................................................................
Debt owed to Berkshire ......................................................................................
收益(百万美元)
20062005
英国公用事业$ 338$ 308
爱荷华公用事业348288
Western utilities (acquired March 21, 2006)356不适用
管道376309
家居服务74148
其他(净额)226115
公司利息和税前利润1,7181,168
除伯克希尔以外的利息(261)(200)
伯克希尔次级债务利息(134)(157)
所得税(407)(248)
净利润$ 916$ 563
归属于伯克希尔的收益*$ 885$ 523
欠他人的债务16,94610,296
欠伯克希尔的债务1,0551,289
Earnings (in $ millions)
20062005
U.K. utilities$ 338$ 308
Iowa utility348288
Western utilities (acquired March 21, 2006)356N/A
Pipelines376309
HomeServices74148
Other (net)226115
Earnings before corporate interest and taxes1,7181,168
Interest, other than to Berkshire(261)(200)
Interest on Berkshire junior debt(134)(157)
Income tax(407)(248)
Net earnings$ 916$ 563
Earnings applicable to Berkshire*$ 885$ 523
Debt owed to others16,94610,296
Debt owed to Berkshire1,0551,289
$ 523 10,296 1,289
$ 523 10,296 1,289

*含伯克希尔所获利息(扣除相关所得税后),2006 年为 87 美元,2005 年为 102 美元。

*Includes interest earned by Berkshire (net of related income taxes) of $87 in 2006 and $102 in 2005.

金融与金融产品

Finance and Financial Products

你们听到下面这个消息会很高兴——我比你们更高兴——这将是我最后一次讨论通用再保险衍生品业务的亏损。2002 年初我们开始清理这项业务时,还有 23,218 份未平仓合约。现在只剩 197 份。这项业务的累计税前亏损总计 4.09 亿美元,但 2006 年只产生了 500 万美元。查理说,如果我们当初把 4.09 亿美元合理地列在 2001 年的资产负债表上,应该标为“伸手才见好”。无论如何,用一句莎士比亚的话——稍加改动——给这项衍生品业务的墓碑作墓志铭再合适不过:“结局好的,就算完。”我们也清算了 Value Capital 的投资。所以这两项业务的收益或亏损,是最后一次出现在本部分每年列示的表格中。克莱顿住宅公司在活动房屋行业里仍然是个异类,去年整个行业的销量创下 1962 年以来的最低水平。事实上,行业去年的销量只有 1999 年的三分之一左右。除了克莱顿,我怀疑整个行业 2006 年整体上没赚到钱。可克莱顿实现了 5.13 亿美元的税前利润,还另外付给伯克希尔 860 万美元,作为我们帮它融资、支撑其 100 亿美元分期应收款组合的费用。伯克希尔的财务实力显然对克莱顿帮助巨大。但推动公司成功的核心动力是凯文·克莱顿。凯文对这项业务了如指掌,决策理性,跟他共事是件乐事。通过并购,克莱顿现在雇有 14,787 名员工,而我们收购时只有 6,661 人。我们还有两家租赁业务:CORT(家具租赁),由保罗·阿诺德管理;XTRA(货车挂车租赁),由比尔·弗朗茨管理。CORT 去年的利润显著改善,XTRA 则保持在 2005 年达到的高水平。我们继续寻找由保罗或比尔负责的小型补强并购机会,对新租赁领域的想法也持开放态度。

You will be happy to hear – and I’m even happier – that this will be my last discussion of the losses at Gen Re’s derivative operation. When we started to wind this business down early in 2002, we had 23,218 contracts outstanding. Now we have 197. Our cumulative pre-tax loss from this operation totals $409 million, but only $5 million occurred in 2006. Charlie says that if we had properly classified the $409 million on our 2001 balance sheet, it would have been labeled “Good Until Reached For.” In any event, a Shakespearean thought – slightly modified – seems appropriate for the tombstone of this derivative business: “All’s well that ends.” We’ve also wound up our investment in Value Capital. So earnings or losses from these two lines of business are making their final appearance in the table that annually appears in this section. Clayton Homes remains an anomaly in the manufactured-housing industry, which last year recorded its lowest unit sales since 1962. Indeed, the industry’s volume last year was only about one-third that of 1999. Outside of Clayton, I doubt if the industry, overall, made any money in 2006. Yet Clayton earned $513 million pre-tax and paid Berkshire an additional $86 million as a fee for our obtaining the funds to finance Clayton’s $10 billion portfolio of installment receivables. Berkshire’s financial strength has clearly been of huge help to Clayton. But the driving force behind the company’s success is Kevin Clayton. Kevin knows the business forward and backward, is a rational decision-maker and a joy to work with. Because of acquisitions, Clayton now employs 14,787 people, compared to 6,661 at the time of our purchase. We have two leasing operations: CORT (furniture), run by Paul Arnold, and XTRA (truck trailers), run by Bill Franz. CORT’s earnings improved significantly last year, and XTRA’s remained at the high level attained in 2005. We continue to look for tuck-in acquisitions to be run by Paul or Bill, and also are open to ideas for new leasing opportunities.

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以下为该行业收益的细分情况:

Here’s a breakdown of earnings in this sector:

交易业务——普通收入
Gen Re 证券(亏损)
人寿与年金业务
Value Capital(亏损)
租赁业务
制造住宅融资(克莱顿)
其他
资本收益前收入
交易业务——资本收益(亏损)
总计
*包括所有负债
Trading – ordinary income ............................
Gen Re Securities (loss) .................................
Life and annuity operation .............................
Value Capital (loss) .......................................
Leasing operations .........................................
Manufactured-housing finance (Clayton).......
Other...............................................................
Income before capital gains............................
Trading – capital gains (losses) .....................
Total ..............................................................
*Includes all liabilities

(in millions)

(in millions)

税前利润

Pre-Tax Earnings

税前收益(以百万美元计) 计息负债
2006 20052006 2005
交易——普通收入$ 274 $ 200$ 600 $1,061
Gen Re证券(损失)(5) (104)1,204* 2,617*
寿险及年金业务29 112,459 2,461
价值资本(亏损)6 (33)不适用 不适用
租赁业务182 173261 370
制造住房金融(Clayton)513 41610,498 9,299
其他158 159不适用 不适用
资本利得前收入1,157 822
交易——资本利得(损失)938 (234)
总计$ 2,095 $ 588
Pre-Tax Earnings(in millions) Interest-Bearing Liabilities
2006 20052006 2005
Trading – ordinary income$ 274 $ 200$ 600 $1,061
Gen Re Securities (loss)(5) (104)1,204* 2,617*
Life and annuity operation29 112,459 2,461
Value Capital (loss)6 (33)N/A N/A
Leasing operations182 173261 370
Manufactured-housing finance (Clayton)513 41610,498 9,299
Other158 159N/A N/A
Income before capital gains1,157 822
Trading – capital gains (losses)938 (234)
Total$ 2,095 $ 588

投资部分,我们列出截至 2006 年底市值超过 7 亿美元的普通股投资,仅有两项例外。这两项投资市值合计 19 亿美元,因我们仍在持续买入,故不予列明。当然,我可以直接告诉你们名字,但那样的话,我就得灭口了。

Investments We show below our common stock investments. With two exceptions, those that had a market value of more than $700 million at the end of 2006 are itemized. We don’t itemize the two securities referred to, which have a market value of $1.9 billion, because we continue to buy them. I could, of course, tell you their names. But then I would have to kill you.

12/31/06
12/31/06

公司持股比例

Percentage of Company Owned

Shares

Shares

Company

Company

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

151,610,700 36,417,400 200,000,000 17,938,100 21,334,900 6,708,760 48,000,000 2,338,961,000 3,486,006 100,000,000 229,707,000 31,033,800 17,072,192 19,944,300 1,727,765 218,169,300 1,724,200
151,610,700 36,417,400 200,000,000 17,938,100 21,334,900 6,708,760 48,000,000 2,338,961,000 3,486,006 100,000,000 229,707,000 31,033,800 17,072,192 19,944,300 1,727,765 218,169,300 1,724,200
美国运通公司
安海斯-布希公司
可口可乐公司
康菲石油
强生公司
M&T 银行公司
穆迪公司
中国石油“H”股(或同等证券)
POSCO
宝洁公司
特易购
美国合众银行
USG 公司
沃尔玛公司
《华盛顿邮报》公司
富国银行
白山保险集团
其他
普通股合计
American Express Company ...................
Anheuser-Busch Cos., Inc. ......................
The Coca-Cola Company ........................
Conoco Phillips .......................................
Johnson & Johnson..................................
M&T Bank Corporation ..........................
Moody’s Corporation ..............................
PetroChina “H” shares (or equivalents)...
POSCO ....................................................
The Procter & Gamble Company ............
Tesco .......................................................
US Bancorp .............................................
USG Corp ................................................
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. ..............................
The Washington Post Company ..............
Wells Fargo & Company.........................
White Mountains Insurance.....................
Others ......................................................
Total Common Stocks .............................
151,610,700美国运通公司12.6$ 1,287$ 9,198
36,417,400安海斯-布希公司4.71,7611,792
200,000,000可口可乐公司8.61,2999,650
17,938,100康菲石油1.11,0661,291
21,334,900强生公司0.71,2501,409
6,708,760M&T银行公司6.1103820
48,000,000穆迪公司17.24993,315
2,338,961,000中国石油“H”股(或等值)……1.34883,313
3,486,006POSCO4.05721,158
100,000,000宝洁公司3.29406,427
229,707,000乐购2.91,3401,820
31,033,800US Bancorp(美国合众银行)1.89691,123
17,072,192USG Corp19.0536936
19,944,300沃尔玛百货公司0.5942921
1,727,765《华盛顿邮报》公司18.0111,288
218,169,300富国银行公司6.53,6977,758
1,724,200白山保险16.0369999
其他5,8668,315
普通股总计$22,995$61,533
151,610,700American Express Company12.6$ 1,287$ 9,198
36,417,400Anheuser-Busch Cos., Inc.4.71,7611,792
200,000,000The Coca-Cola Company8.61,2999,650
17,938,100Conoco Phillips1.11,0661,291
21,334,900Johnson & Johnson0.71,2501,409
6,708,760M&T Bank Corporation6.1103820
48,000,000Moody’s Corporation17.24993,315
2,338,961,000PetroChina “H” shares (or equivalents)...1.34883,313
3,486,006POSCO4.05721,158
100,000,000The Procter & Gamble Company3.29406,427
229,707,000Tesco2.91,3401,820
31,033,800US Bancorp1.89691,123
17,072,192USG Corp19.0536936
19,944,300Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.0.5942921
1,727,765The Washington Post Company18.0111,288
218,169,300Wells Fargo & Company6.53,6977,758
1,724,200White Mountains Insurance16.0369999
Others5,8668,315
Total Common Stocks$22,995$61,533

*这是我们实际支付的价格,也是我们的计税基础;GAAP“成本”在某些情况下因需计提的增减值而有所不同。我们对几乎所有被投资公司在 2006 年的经营表现感到欣喜。去年,我们告知各位,我们的预期是这些公司整体上每年将增长 6% 至 8% 的收益,这一速度约每十年就会使它们的收益翻一番。在 2006 年,美国运通……

*This is our actual purchase price and also our tax basis; GAAP “cost” differs in a few cases because of write-ups or write-downs that have been required. We are delighted by the 2006 business performance of virtually all of our investees. Last year, we told you that our expectation was that these companies, in aggregate, would increase their earnings by 6% to 8% annually, a rate that would double their earnings every ten years or so. In 2006 American Express,

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可口可乐、宝洁和富国银行,我们最大的持仓,每股收益分别增长了 18%、9%、8% 和 11%。这些都是极为出色的成绩,我们感谢这些公司的首席执行官。

Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble and Wells Fargo, our largest holdings, increased per-share earnings by 18%, 9%, 8% and 11%. These are stellar results, and we thank their CEOs.

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我们已基本清空了直接外汇头寸,2006 年从中实现了约 1.86 亿美元的税前利润(这项收益已计入前面列出的金融与金融产品表)。至此,自 2002 年建立该头寸以来,我们的累计收益达到了 2.2 亿美元。

We’ve come close to eliminating our direct foreign-exchange position, from which we realized about $186 million in pre-tax profits in 2006 (earnings that were included in the Finance and Financial Products table shown earlier). That brought our total gain since inception of this position in 2002 to $2.2

1 亿美元。按币种细分如下:

billion. Here’s a breakdown by currency:

总收益(亏损)(单位:百万美元)

Total Gain (Loss) in Millions

澳元、英镑、加元、人民币、欧元、港币、日元。

Australian dollar British pound Canadian dollar Chinese yuan Euro Hong Kong dollar Japanese yen

$247.1 287.2 398.3 (12.7) 839.2 (2.5) 1.9
$247.1 287.2 398.3 (12.7) 839.2 (2.5) 1.9

*(段落内容为货币列表,翻译如下:)*

墨西哥比索 新西兰元 新加坡元 韩元 瑞士法郎 新台币 其他期权

Mexican peso New Zealand dollar Singapore dollar South Korean won Swiss franc Taiwan dollar Miscellaneous options

$106.1 102.6 (2.6) 261.3 9.6 (45.3) 22.9
$106.1 102.6 (2.6) 261.3 9.6 (45.3) 22.9

我们在间接货币收益上也赚了不少,不过具体数额我从未精确统计过。比如,2002 至 2003 年间,我们花了约 8200 万美元买进了安然公司债券——说来也怪——其中部分是欧元计价。迄今已从这些债券获得 1.79 亿美元的分配款,剩余持仓价值 1.73 亿美元。这意味着总收益达 2.7 亿美元,其中一部分来自买入债券后欧元的升值。我们最初开始涉足外汇购买时,美国与多数国家的利率差异有利于直接持有货币头寸,但这一利差在 2005 年转为负值。于是我们另寻其他途径来获取外汇敞口,比如持有外国股票,或持有海外盈利占比很大的美国股票。需要强调,汇率因素在我们挑选股票时并非主导,而只是众多考量之一。随着美国贸易问题不断恶化,美元长期走弱的概率依然很高。我笃信真实贸易——越多越好,对美国和世界都是如此。2006 年,我们这类实打实的贸易额约为 1.44 万亿美元。但去年美国还有 7600 亿美元是伪贸易——这类进口没有对应的商品或服务出口。(不妨想想,如果我们的进口额是 7600 亿美元——占 GDP 整整 6%——而出口为零,评论员们会如何描述这种局面。)美国进行这些没有出口回应的采购,就等于把资产所有权或借据转移到世界其他地方。好比一个极其富有但放纵自己的家族,为了消费超过产出的部分,不得不变卖一点家产。美国能这么干,是因为我们是个极其富裕的国家,过去又一直表现得负责任。因此世界愿意接受我们的债券、房产、股票和企业。而我们有大量这些东西可以拱手让人。然而,这些转移终究会带来后果。我去年对挥霍式支出的一种后果所做的预测已经应验:我国的“投资收入”账户——自 1915 年以来每年都是正数——在 2006 年转为负数。如今外国人在美国投资赚到的钱,比我们在海外投资赚到的更多。实际上,我们已把银行账户用光,转而靠信用卡度日。而且,和每个欠债的人一样,美国现在将体验“反向复利”,为不断增加的利息再支付越来越多的利息。我想强调,尽管我们的路径并不明智,但美国人十年或二十年后会过得比今天更好。人均财富会增长。但我们的公民也会被迫每年将当前产出的很大一部分送往国外,仅仅为了偿还巨额债务的利息成本。每天工作一部分时间来为过度消费买单,可不是什么愉快的事。

We’ve made large indirect currency profits as well, though I’ve never tallied the precise amount. For example, in 2002-2003 we spent about $82 million buying – of all things – Enron bonds, some of which were denominated in Euros. Already we’ve received distributions of $179 million from these bonds, and our remaining stake is worth $173 million. That means our overall gain is $270 million, part of which came from the appreciation of the Euro that took place after our bond purchase. When we first began making foreign exchange purchases, interest-rate differentials between the U.S. and most foreign countries favored a direct currency position. But that spread turned negative in 2005. We therefore looked for other ways to gain foreign-currency exposure, such as the ownership of foreign equities or of U.S. stocks with major earnings abroad. The currency factor, we should emphasize, is not dominant in our selection of equities, but is merely one of many considerations. As our U.S. trade problems worsen, the probability that the dollar will weaken over time continues to be high. I fervently believe in real trade – the more the better for both us and the world. We had about $1.44 trillion of this honest-to-God trade in 2006. But the U.S. also had $.76 trillion of pseudo-trade last year – imports for which we exchanged no goods or services. (Ponder, for a moment, how commentators would describe the situation if our imports were $.76 trillion – a full 6% of GDP – and we had no exports.) Making these purchases that weren’t reciprocated by sales, the U.S. necessarily transferred ownership of its assets or IOUs to the rest of the world. Like a very wealthy but self-indulgent family, we peeled off a bit of what we owned in order to consume more than we produced. The U.S. can do a lot of this because we are an extraordinarily rich country that has behaved responsibly in the past. The world is therefore willing to accept our bonds, real estate, stocks and businesses. And we have a vast store of these to hand over. These transfers will have consequences, however. Already the prediction I made last year about one fall-out from our spending binge has come true: The “investment income” account of our country – positive in every previous year since 1915 – turned negative in 2006. Foreigners now earn more on their U.S. investments than we do on our investments abroad. In effect, we’ve used up our bank account and turned to our credit card. And, like everyone who gets in hock, the U.S. will now experience “reverse compounding” as we pay ever-increasing amounts of interest on interest. I want to emphasize that even though our course is unwise, Americans will live better ten or twenty years from now than they do today. Per-capita wealth will increase. But our citizens will also be forced every year to ship a significant portion of their current production abroad merely to service the cost of our huge debtor position. It won’t be pleasant to work part of each day to pay for the over-consumption

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你们祖先的遗产。我相信,未来某个时刻,美国工人和选民会发现这种年度“贡金”如此沉重,以至于会引发严重的政治反弹。这种反弹会在市场上如何演变,无法预测——但期待“软着陆”似乎是痴心妄想。

of your ancestors. I believe that at some point in the future U.S. workers and voters will find this annual “tribute” so onerous that there will be a severe political backlash. How that will play out in markets is impossible to predict – but to expect a “soft landing” seems like wishful thinking.

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需要说明的是,我们已实现的外汇直接利润全部来自远期合约,也就是衍生品,此外我们还签订了其他类型的衍生品合约。这听起来可能有些奇怪,因为你们知道我们在清理通用再保险的衍生品头寸时付出了高昂代价,也听我讲过衍生品使用量剧增可能带来的系统性风险。你们或许会问,我们为什么还要碰这种潜在风险很大的东西?答案是,衍生品和股票、债券一样,有时定价会严重偏离合理水平。因此,多年来我们一直在有选择地签订衍生品合约——数量不多,但有时金额相当大。目前我们有 62 份未到期合约,由我亲自管理,而且不承担交易对手的信用风险。到目前为止,这些衍生品合约给我们带来了不错的回报,实现了数亿美元的税前利润(这还不包括前面列出的外汇远期合约收益)。虽然我们偶尔会遇到亏损,但总体而言,我们很可能继续从定价错误的衍生品中赚取可观利润。

I should mention that all of the direct currency profits we have realized have come from forward contracts, which are derivatives, and that we have entered into other types of derivatives contracts as well. That may seem odd, since you know of our expensive experience in unwinding the derivatives book at Gen Re and also have heard me talk of the systemic problems that could result from the enormous growth in the use of derivatives. Why, you may wonder, are we fooling around with such potentially toxic material? The answer is that derivatives, just like stocks and bonds, are sometimes wildly mispriced. For many years, accordingly, we have selectively written derivative contracts – few in number but sometimes for large dollar amounts. We currently have 62 contracts outstanding. I manage them personally, and they are free of counterparty credit risk. So far, these derivative contracts have worked out well for us, producing pre-tax profits in the hundreds of millions of dollars (above and beyond the gains I’ve itemized from forward foreign-exchange contracts). Though we will experience losses from time to time, we are likely to continue to earn – overall – significant profits from mispriced derivatives.

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我告诉过你们,伯克希尔有三位杰出的候选人可以接替我的首席执行官职位,董事会清楚知道,如果我今晚去世,谁应当接任。这三位都比我年轻得多。董事们认为,我的继任者需要有长期任职的前景,这一点很重要。坦率地说,在投资这一块,我们准备得没那么充分。这背后有一段历史:曾经,查理是接替我负责投资的人选,后来,卢·辛普森填补了这个位置。卢是一位一流的投资者,管理 GEICO 股票组合的长期业绩非常出色。但他只比我小六岁。如果我不久后去世,他能短期内顶替得很好。但从长期来看,我们需要另一个答案。在十月的董事会上,我们充分讨论了这个问题,并制定了一个计划,我将在查理和卢的协助下执行。根据这个计划,我打算聘请一位更年轻的人,不论男女,要有管理超大投资组合的潜力,希望他或她能在需要时接替我成为伯克希尔的首席投资官。在选拔过程中,我们实际上可能会考察几位候选人。选对人不是件容易的事。当然,找到聪明人,包括那些投资业绩亮眼的人,并不难。但成功的长期投资,远不止靠头脑和近期表现得好。随着时间推移,市场会做出异常甚至离奇的事。一个大错就可能抹掉一串长期的成功。因此,我们需要一个天生就懂得识别并避开严重风险的人,包括那些从未遇到过的风险。投资策略中潜伏的某些危险,靠金融机构如今常用的模型是发现不了的。性格也同样重要。独立思考、情绪稳定、对人和机构行为有敏锐的理解,对长期投资成功至关重要。我见过很多非常聪明的人,恰恰缺少这些品质。最后,我们还有一个特别的问题要考虑:怎么留住我们招来的人。能把伯克希尔写进简历,会大大提升一位投资经理的市场身价。因此,我们需要确保能留住选中的人,哪怕他或她离职去别处能赚多得多的钱。

I have told you that Berkshire has three outstanding candidates to replace me as CEO and that the Board knows exactly who should take over if I should die tonight. Each of the three is much younger than I. The directors believe it’s important that my successor have the prospect of a long tenure. Frankly, we are not as well-prepared on the investment side of our business. There’s a history here: At one time, Charlie was my potential replacement for investing, and more recently Lou Simpson has filled that slot. Lou is a top-notch investor with an outstanding long-term record of managing GEICO’s equity portfolio. But he is only six years younger than I. If I were to die soon, he would fill in magnificently for a short period. For the long-term, though, we need a different answer. At our October board meeting, we discussed that subject fully. And we emerged with a plan, which I will carry out with the help of Charlie and Lou. Under this plan, I intend to hire a younger man or woman with the potential to manage a very large portfolio, who we hope will succeed me as Berkshire’s chief investment officer when the need for someone to do that arises. As part of the selection process, we may in fact take on several candidates. Picking the right person(s) will not be an easy task. It’s not hard, of course, to find smart people, among them individuals who have impressive investment records. But there is far more to successful longterm investing than brains and performance that has recently been good. Over time, markets will do extraordinary, even bizarre, things. A single, big mistake could wipe out a long string of successes. We therefore need someone genetically programmed to recognize and avoid serious risks, including those never before encountered. Certain perils that lurk in investment strategies cannot be spotted by use of the models commonly employed today by financial institutions. Temperament is also important. Independent thinking, emotional stability, and a keen understanding of both human and institutional behavior is vital to long-term investment success. I’ve seen a lot of very smart people who have lacked these virtues. Finally, we have a special problem to consider: our ability to keep the person we hire. Being able to list Berkshire on a resume would materially enhance the marketability of an investment manager. We will need, therefore, to be sure we can retain our choice, even though he or she could leave and make much more money elsewhere.

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肯定有符合我们要求的人,但要找出来可能并不容易。1979 年,杰克·伯恩和我以为在卢·辛普森身上找到了这样一个人。我们当时和他达成协议,只要他持续跑赢大盘,就能获得优厚报酬。按这份协议,他确实赚了不少。不过,卢早就可以离开我们,去管理规模大得多的资金,条件也更有利。如果只是为了钱,他早就这么干了。但卢从没动过这个念头。我们需要再找一两个和他是同一块料子的年轻人。

There are surely people who fit what we need, but they may be hard to identify. In 1979, Jack Byrne and I felt we had found such a person in Lou Simpson. We then made an arrangement with him whereby he would be paid well for sustained overperformance. Under this deal, he has earned large amounts. Lou, however, could have left us long ago to manage far greater sums on more advantageous terms. If money alone had been the object, that’s exactly what he would have done. But Lou never considered such a move. We need to find a younger person or two made of the same stuff.

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好消息是:我 76 岁了,感觉棒极了,从各项可测量的指标来看,身体状况极佳。樱桃可乐加汉堡包对一个人的功效,真是令人惊叹。

The good news: At 76, I feel terrific and, according to all measurable indicators, am in excellent health. It’s amazing what Cherry Coke and hamburgers will do for a fellow.

伯克希尔董事会的一些变动

Some Changes on Berkshire’s Board

今年春天,我们董事会的构成将发生两处变化。其中一处涉及蔡斯家族,该家族与伯克希尔及其前身公司的渊源已超过一个世纪。1929 年,第一代马尔科姆·蔡斯在将四家新英格兰纺织企业合并为伯克希尔精细纺织联合公司的过程中发挥了重要作用。1955 年,该公司与哈撒韦制造公司合并,组成伯克希尔·哈撒韦,马尔科姆·蔡斯二世出任董事长。1965 年初,马尔科姆安排巴菲特合伙有限公司买下伯克希尔的关键股份,并欢迎我们成为公司新的控股股东。马尔科姆继续担任非执行董事长直至 1969 年。他既是位杰出的绅士,也是位得力的合作伙伴。这些描述同样适用于他的儿子马尔科姆“金”蔡斯,后者于 1992 年继承父业,进入伯克希尔董事会。但去年,金——他目前正积极而成功地经营着自己于 1996 年创办的一家社区银行——建议我们找一位更年轻的人选来接替他的董事席位。我们已经这样做了,金将在股东大会上卸任董事一职。我欠蔡斯家族很多,并想感谢金多年来为伯克希尔所做的贡献。在挑选新董事时,我们遵循了长期坚持的标准,即董事会成员须以股东为导向、精通商业、有兴趣且真正独立。我说“真正”,是因为许多被各种机构和观察人士视为独立的董事远非如此,他们很大程度上依赖董事酬金来维持生活水平。这些酬金形式多样,每年通常在 15 万美元至 25 万美元之间,这笔收入可能接近甚至超过“独立”董事的其他所有收入之和。而且——意料之中——近年来董事酬金飞涨,这得益于美国企业界最青睐的咨询公司“棘轮、棘轮与宾果”公司的建议。(名字可能是虚构的,但其所描述的行为绝非虚构。)查理和我认为,如果董事要履行其法定职责——忠实代表所有者——我们的四条标准必不可少。然而这些标准常被忽视。相反,咨询顾问和首席执行官在寻找董事会候选人时,往往会说:“我们在找一位女性”,或者“一位拉丁裔”,或者“一位来自海外的人士”,或者别的什么。有时听起来,仿佛使命是为诺亚方舟配齐动物。多年来,我多次被问及潜在董事人选,却从未听到有人问:“他思考问题的方式像一位明智的所有者吗?”我听到的问题,要是换作其他领域——比如足球队、仲裁小组或军事指挥——的候选人选拔,会显得荒谬可笑。在这些情况下,选拔者会寻找具备特定专业所需才能和态度的人。在伯克希尔,我们从事的是把企业经营好的专业活动,因此我们寻求商业判断力。这正是我们在苏珊·德克尔身上发现的——她是雅虎的首席财务官,将在股东大会上加入我们的董事会。我们很幸运能有她:她在我们的四条标准上得分很高,而且,44 岁的她还算年轻——正如你可能注意到的,这一特质是你们的主席长期以来所欠缺的。未来我们会物色更多年轻董事,但绝不会以牺牲我们所坚持的四条标准为代价。

The composition of our board will change in two ways this spring. One change will involve the Chace family, which has been connected to Berkshire and its predecessor companies for more than a century. In 1929, the first Malcolm G. Chace played an important role in merging four New England textile operations into Berkshire Fine Spinning Associates. That company merged with Hathaway Manufacturing in 1955 to form Berkshire Hathaway, and Malcolm G. Chace, Jr. became its chairman. Early in 1965, Malcolm arranged for Buffett Partnership Ltd. to buy a key block of Berkshire shares and welcomed us as the new controlling shareholder of the company. Malcolm continued as nonexecutive chairman until 1969. He was both a wonderful gentleman and helpful partner. That description also fits his son, Malcolm “Kim” Chace, who succeeded his father on Berkshire’s board in 1992. But last year Kim, now actively and successfully running a community bank that he founded in 1996, suggested that we find a younger person to replace him on our board. We have done so, and Kim will step down as a director at the annual meeting. I owe much to the Chaces and wish to thank Kim for his many years of service to Berkshire. In selecting a new director, we were guided by our long-standing criteria, which are that board members be owner-oriented, business-savvy, interested and truly independent. I say “truly” because many directors who are now deemed independent by various authorities and observers are far from that, relying heavily as they do on directors’ fees to maintain their standard of living. These payments, which come in many forms, often range between $150,000 and $250,000 annually, compensation that may approach or even exceed all other income of the “independent” director. And – surprise, surprise – director compensation has soared in recent years, pushed up by recommendations from corporate America’s favorite consultant, Ratchet, Ratchet and Bingo. (The name may be phony, but the action it conveys is not.) Charlie and I believe our four criteria are essential if directors are to do their job – which, by law, is to faithfully represent owners. Yet these criteria are usually ignored. Instead, consultants and CEOs seeking board candidates will often say, “We’re looking for a woman,” or “a Hispanic,” or “someone from abroad,” or what have you. It sometimes sounds as if the mission is to stock Noah’s ark. Over the years I’ve been queried many times about potential directors and have yet to hear anyone ask, “Does he think like an intelligent owner?” The questions I instead get would sound ridiculous to someone seeking candidates for, say, a football team, or an arbitration panel or a military command. In those cases, the selectors would look for people who had the specific talents and attitudes that were required for a specialized job. At Berkshire, we are in the specialized activity of running a business well, and therefore we seek business judgment. That’s exactly what we’ve found in Susan Decker, CFO of Yahoo!, who will join our board at the annual meeting. We are lucky to have her: She scores very high on our four criteria and additionally, at 44, is young – an attribute, as you may have noticed, that your Chairman has long lacked. We will seek more young directors in the future, but never by slighting the four qualities that we insist upon.

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伯克希尔将就其 2006 年盈利缴纳约 44 亿美元的联邦所得税。上一财年,美国政府支出 2.6 万亿美元,平均每天约 70 亿美元。因此,在超过半天的时间里,伯克希尔承担了全部联邦支出,涵盖社保、医疗保险支付以及军费开支。如果只有 600 个像伯克希尔这样的纳税人,那么美国其他任何人都不必再缴纳联邦所得税或工资税。

This and That Berkshire will pay about $4.4 billion in federal income tax on its 2006 earnings. In its last fiscal year the U.S. Government spent $2.6 trillion, or about $7 billion per day. Thus, for more than half of one day, Berkshire picked up the tab for all federal expenditures, ranging from Social Security and Medicare payments to the cost of our armed services. Had there been only 600 taxpayers like Berkshire, no one else in America would have needed to pay any federal income or payroll taxes.

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去年的联邦税单,顺带一提,长达 9386 页。为了处理这份申报、各州及外国税表、名目繁多的 SEC 要求,以及经营伯克希尔所涉的其他各项事务,我们的世界总部员工人数已增至 19 人。这支队伍占用 9708 平方英尺的办公空间,而查理——在洛杉矶的西部世界总部——另用 655 平方英尺。去年,我们的总部薪资,含福利、计及两地,总计 353.19 万美元。花你们的钱时,我们格外谨慎。企业高管常抱怨政府开支,批评官僚们花纳税人的钱不像花自己的钱那样上心。但有时,高管的财务行为也会因掏的是谁的钱包而有所不同。我在所罗门的日子里有桩轶事,颇能说明问题。20 世纪 80 年代,公司有位理发师,名叫吉米,每周来一次,给高层免费理发。还有位美甲师随时候命。后来,因成本削减行动,顾客被告知自掏腰包。一位之前每周光顾吉米的高管(并非首席执行官)立刻改成三周一次。

Our federal return last year, we should add, ran to 9,386 pages. To handle this filing, state and foreign tax returns, a myriad of SEC requirements, and all of the other matters involved in running Berkshire, we have gone all the way up to 19 employees at World Headquarters. This crew occupies 9,708 square feet of space, and Charlie – at World Headquarters West in Los Angeles – uses another 655 square feet. Our home-office payroll, including benefits and counting both locations, totaled $3,531,978 last year. We’re careful when spending your money. Corporate bigwigs often complain about government spending, criticizing bureaucrats who they say spend taxpayers’ money differently from how they would if it were their own. But sometimes the financial behavior of executives will also vary based on whose wallet is getting depleted. Here’s an illustrative tale from my days at Salomon. In the 1980s the company had a barber, Jimmy by name, who came in weekly to give free haircuts to the top brass. A manicurist was also on tap. Then, because of a cost-cutting drive, patrons were told to pay their own way. One top executive (not the CEO) who had previously visited Jimmy weekly went immediately to a once-every-three-weeks schedule.

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每隔一段时间,我和查理就会早早嗅到一个像潮水般涌来的趋势,里头满是商业机遇。举个例子,尽管美国航空(靠“里程”)和美国运通(靠信用卡积分)被认为是给客户发“奖励”的开路先锋,但我和查理可比他们早得多就瞧上了这威力十足的点子的吸引力。被自己的洞察弄得兴奋不已,我们俩早在 1970 年就跳进了奖励业务,买下了一家 trading stamp 公司——蓝筹印花。那一年,蓝筹印花的销售额有 1.26 亿美元,它的印花铺满了整个加利福尼亚。实际上,1970 年,大约有 600 亿张我们的印花被储户舔过、贴进本子、拿到蓝筹印花的兑换点去。我们的奖励目录有 116 页厚,塞满了诱人的玩意儿。当我听说连某些妓院和殡仪馆都给顾客发印花时,我觉得自己总算找到了稳赚不赔的买卖。嗯,也不尽然。从我和查理踏入蓝筹印花的那一刻起,这生意就一路滑坡。到 1980 年,销售额跌到 1940 万美元。再到 1990 年,销售额就磕磕绊绊地停在 150 万美元。我可不是轻言放弃的人,管理上的功夫翻倍加码。结果销售额又掉了 98%。去年,在伯克希尔 980 亿美元的收入里,蓝筹印花只贡献了 2.592 万美元(一个零没省)。我和查理还是满怀希望,继续硬撑着往前走。

Every now and then Charlie and I catch on early to a tide-like trend, one brimming over with commercial promise. For example, though American Airlines (with its “miles”) and American Express (with credit card points) are credited as being trailblazers in granting customers “rewards,” Charlie and I were far ahead of them in spotting the appeal of this powerful idea. Excited by our insight, the two of us jumped into the reward business way back in 1970 by buying control of a trading stamp operation, Blue Chip Stamps. In that year, Blue Chip had sales of $126 million, and its stamps papered California. In 1970, indeed, about 60 billion of our stamps were licked by savers, pasted into books, and taken to Blue Chip redemption stores. Our catalog of rewards was 116 pages thick and chock full of tantalizing items. When I was told that even certain brothels and mortuaries gave stamps to their patrons, I felt I had finally found a sure thing. Well, not quite. From the day Charlie and I stepped into the Blue Chip picture, the business went straight downhill. By 1980, sales had fallen to $19.4 million. And, by 1990, sales were bumping along at $1.5 million. No quitter, I redoubled my managerial efforts. Sales then fell another 98%. Last year, in Berkshire’s $98 billion of revenues, all of $25,920 (no zeros omitted) came from Blue Chip. Ever hopeful, Charlie and I soldier on.

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去年我曾提到,在我为 19 家公司的董事会(不包括伯克希尔及其他控股企业)任职期间,我一直是薪酬委员会的“伤寒玛丽”。只有在一家公司我被安排到薪酬委员会工作,而面对最关键决策时,我很快就被投票否决。考虑到我在设定 CEO 薪酬方面绝不缺乏经验,这种排斥确实令人费解。毕竟,在伯克希尔,我是单人的薪酬委员会,负责决定约 40 家重要运营公司的 CEO 的薪资和激励方案。

I mentioned last year that in my service on 19 corporate boards (not counting Berkshire or other controlled companies), I have been the Typhoid Mary of compensation committees. At only one company was I assigned to comp committee duty, and then I was promptly outvoted on the most crucial decision that we faced. My ostracism has been peculiar, considering that I certainly haven’t lacked experience in setting CEO pay. At Berkshire, after all, I am a one-man compensation committee who determines the salaries and incentives for the CEOs of around 40 significant operating businesses.

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这项工作在我的职责里占多少时间?几乎没有。在我们 42 年的历史里,有多少首席执行官主动离开我们另谋高就?一个都没有。伯克希尔采用多种不同的激励安排,具体条款取决于各公司首席执行官所负责业务的经济潜力或资本密集度等因素。但无论薪酬安排如何,我都力求简单公平。当我们使用激励措施时——这些措施可能相当丰厚——它们始终与特定首席执行官有权管辖的经营业绩挂钩。我们不会发放与经营业绩无关的彩票式报酬。如果一位首席执行官打出 0.300 的打击率,他拿的就是 0.300 击球手的薪水,哪怕他控制之外的因素让伯克希尔整体业绩不佳。而如果他打出 0.150 的打击率,他也不会因为别人的成功让伯克希尔大赚而拿到任何回报。举个例子:我们现在持有伯克希尔 610 亿美元的股票,单年市值上下波动 10% 是常有的事。为什么我们旗下运营高管们的薪酬要被这 60 亿美元的起落所影响,无论这些得失对股东来说有多重要?你读过太多首席执行官平庸业绩却拿天文数字薪酬的报道。但美国首席执行官们普遍过着优渥生活这一点,却鲜少被提及。必须强调,许多人能力极为出众,几乎所有人都每周工作远超 40 小时。但在这个过程中,他们通常被当作皇室成员对待。(在伯克希尔我们当然会保持这样。虽然查理仍然偏爱麻衣素食,我却宁愿被宠坏。伯克希尔旗下有家“宠厨”公司;我们出色的办公室团队把我变成了“被宠的总厨”。)一家公司给首席执行官的待遇很快会被其他公司照搬。“别人家孩子都有”这个理由在董事会里听上去太孩子气。但咨询顾问向薪酬委员会提建议时用的正是这个论据,当然措辞要优雅得多。不理性且过度的薪酬做法,不会因为信息披露或“独立”薪酬委员会成员而得到实质改变。事实上,我认为我被那么多薪酬委员会拒之门外,原因就是我被视为太过独立。薪酬改革只有在最大的机构股东——只需要少数几家——要求对整个体系重新审视时才会发生。咨询顾问们眼下那套熟练挑选“同行”公司来与客户比较的做法,只会让现有的过度薪酬永久延续下去。

How much time does this aspect of my job take? Virtually none. How many CEOs have voluntarily left us for other jobs in our 42-year history? Precisely none. Berkshire employs many different incentive arrangements, with their terms depending on such elements as the economic potential or capital intensity of a CEO’s business. Whatever the compensation arrangement, though, I try to keep it both simple and fair. When we use incentives – and these can be large – they are always tied to the operating results for which a given CEO has authority. We issue no lottery tickets that carry payoffs unrelated to business performance. If a CEO bats .300, he gets paid for being a .300 hitter, even if circumstances outside of his control cause Berkshire to perform poorly. And if he bats .150, he doesn’t get a payoff just because the successes of others have enabled Berkshire to prosper mightily. An example: We now own $61 billion of equities at Berkshire, whose value can easily rise or fall by 10% in a given year. Why in the world should the pay of our operating executives be affected by such $6 billion swings, however important the gain or loss may be for shareholders? You’ve read loads about CEOs who have received astronomical compensation for mediocre results. Much less well-advertised is the fact that America’s CEOs also generally live the good life. Many, it should be emphasized, are exceptionally able, and almost all work far more than 40 hours a week. But they are usually treated like royalty in the process. (And we’re certainly going to keep it that way at Berkshire. Though Charlie still favors sackcloth and ashes, I prefer to be spoiled rotten. Berkshire owns The Pampered Chef; our wonderful office group has made me The Pampered Chief.) CEO perks at one company are quickly copied elsewhere. “All the other kids have one” may seem a thought too juvenile to use as a rationale in the boardroom. But consultants employ precisely this argument, phrased more elegantly of course, when they make recommendations to comp committees. Irrational and excessive comp practices will not be materially changed by disclosure or by “independent” comp committee members. Indeed, I think it’s likely that the reason I was rejected for service on so many comp committees was that I was regarded as too independent. Compensation reform will only occur if the largest institutional shareholders – it would only take a few – demand a fresh look at the whole system. The consultants’ present drill of deftly selecting “peer” companies to compare with their clients will only perpetuate present excesses.

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去年,我安排将名下大部分伯克希尔持股转交给五家慈善基金会,由此推进了我终身计划的一部分——最终将我的全部股份用于慈善目的。我做出这些承诺的细节及理由,已发布在我们的网站 www.berkshirehathaway.com 上。需要说明的是,税收与我的决定及时机毫无关系。2006 年我的联邦和州所得税,与我在去年夏天没有进行首批捐赠时完全相同,2007 年的捐赠同样适用这一点。我在遗嘱中规定,我去世时仍持有的所有伯克希尔股份,其收益将在遗产清算完成后十年内用于慈善目的。由于我的事务并不复杂,清算完成最多只需三年。将这段 13 年期限与我约 12 年的预期寿命(当然,我希望能更长)相加,意味着我名下所有伯克希尔股份的收益,很可能在今后 25 年左右分配给社会用途。我设定这一时间表,是因为我希望这笔钱能由我熟知、能干、有活力且充满干劲的人相对迅速地花出去。这些管理特质有时会随着机构的老化而消退——尤其是那些不受市场力量约束的机构。如今,这五家基金会都有出色的人士在执掌。那么,在我去世后,他们为何不应迅速行动,审慎地花掉剩余的钱呢?

Last year I arranged for the bulk of my Berkshire holdings to go to five charitable foundations, thus carrying out part of my lifelong plan to eventually use all of my shares for philanthropic purposes. Details of the commitments I made, as well as the rationale for them, are posted on our website, www.berkshirehathaway.com. Taxes, I should note, had nothing to do with my decision or its timing. My federal and state income taxes in 2006 were exactly what they would have been had I not made my first contributions last summer, and the same point will apply to my 2007 contributions. In my will I’ve stipulated that the proceeds from all Berkshire shares I still own at death are to be used for philanthropic purposes within ten years after my estate is closed. Because my affairs are not complicated, it should take three years at most for this closing to occur. Adding this 13-year period to my expected lifespan of about 12 years (though, naturally, I’m aiming for more) means that proceeds from all of my Berkshire shares will likely be distributed for societal purposes over the next 25 years or so. I’ve set this schedule because I want the money to be spent relatively promptly by people I know to be capable, vigorous and motivated. These managerial attributes sometimes wane as institutions – particularly those that are exempt from market forces – age. Today, there are terrific people in charge at the five foundations. So at my death, why should they not move with dispatch to judiciously spend the money that remains?

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支持永久基金会的人认为,未来必定会出现重大而复杂的社会问题,需要慈善事业来应对。我同意这一点。但到那时,也会有许多超级富豪个人和家族,他们的财富将超过今天的美国人,慈善组织可以向他们提出资金请求。这些出资者可以亲身判断,哪些机构既有活力又有专注力,最能解决当时存在的重大社会问题。这样一来,思想和成效就能接受市场检验。有些机构值得大力支持,而另一些则已过时无用。即使地面上的人判断不尽完美,他们分配资金的能力,总比一个六英尺之下、几十年前就定下遗嘱的逝者更理性。遗嘱当然可以随时修改,但我的想法发生实质性改变的可能性不大。少数股东担心,接受股票的基金会出售伯克希尔股票会压低股价。这种担忧没有根据。许多股票的年交易量超过流通股的 100%,但它们的售价通常仍接近内在价值。伯克希尔的股价也往往处于合理区间,而年交易量仅为流通股的 15%。即便接受我股票的基金会出售股票,最多给年交易量增加三个百分点,仍会让伯克希尔的换手率保持业内最低。总体而言,伯克希尔的经营业绩决定股价,大多数时间里,股价会落在合理区间。基金会定期出售伯克希尔股票时能获得合适的价格,这点很重要;但新进股东不必支付过高价格,同样重要。(参见第 77 页经济原则第 14 条。)通过我们的政策和致股东信,查理和我会尽最大努力,确保伯克希尔的股价既不会大幅低于,也不会大幅高于内在价值。基金会持股的存在,绝不会影响董事会关于股息、回购或发行股票的决定。我们会严格遵循过去一贯的准则:什么样的行动最有可能为股东带来长期最佳结果?

Those people favoring perpetual foundations argue that in the future there will most certainly be large and important societal problems that philanthropy will need to address. I agree. But there will then also be many super-rich individuals and families whose wealth will exceed that of today’s Americans and to whom philanthropic organizations can make their case for funding. These funders can then judge firsthand which operations have both the vitality and the focus to best address the major societal problems that then exist. In this way, a market test of ideas and effectiveness can be applied. Some organizations will deserve major support while others will have outlived their usefulness. Even if the people above ground make their decisions imperfectly, they should be able to allocate funds more rationally than a decedent six feet under will have ordained decades earlier. Wills, of course, can always be rewritten, but it’s very unlikely that my thinking will change in a material way. A few shareholders have expressed concern that sales of Berkshire by the foundations receiving shares will depress the stock. These fears are unwarranted. The annual trading volume of many stocks exceeds 100% of the outstanding shares, but nevertheless these stocks usually sell at prices approximating their intrinsic value. Berkshire also tends to sell at an appropriate price, but with annual volume that is only 15% of shares outstanding. At most, sales by the foundations receiving my shares will add three percentage points to annual trading volume, which will still leave Berkshire with a turnover ratio that is the lowest around. Overall, Berkshire’s business performance will determine the price of our stock, and most of the time it will sell in a zone of reasonableness. It’s important that the foundations receive appropriate prices as they periodically sell Berkshire shares, but it’s also important that incoming shareholders don’t overpay. (See economic principle 14 on page 77.) By both our policies and shareholder communications, Charlie and I will do our best to ensure that Berkshire sells at neither a large discount nor large premium to intrinsic value. The existence of foundation ownership will in no way influence our board’s decisions about dividends, repurchases, or the issuance of shares. We will follow exactly the same rule that has guided us in the past: What action will be likely to deliver the best result for shareholders over time?

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去年年报里,我打了个比方,讲了一个“戈特罗克斯家族”的故事——这个家族拥有美国全部的企业,却偏偏干了些适得其反的事,为了提升投资收益,不断给“帮手”支付越来越高的佣金和费用。说来遗憾,2006 年这个“家族”依然在自毁的路上越走越远。家族之所以执迷不悟,部分原因在于他们对能拿到的回报抱有不切实际的幻想。有时候,这些错觉还是自己骗自己。比如,私营养老金计划可以通过采用大概率达不到的投资假设,暂时虚增收益;公共养老金计划则能借此推迟增税的需要。精算师和审计师都配合着这些把戏,可能要等上几十年,恶果才会显现(到那时,当初误导世人的 CEO 或官员多半早已拍拍屁股走人了)。与此同时,华尔街那些吹嘘业绩的“魔笛手”还在鼓动家族那点不可能实现的希望。倒霉的戈特罗克斯一家人会被反复告知,他们人人都能实现跑赢平均水平的投资收益——前提是付出更高的费用。这个承诺,堪称“乌比冈湖”的成人版。2006 年,承诺和费用双双创下新高。大笔资金从机构投资者手中涌向“2 和 20”那帮人。没听过这规矩的朋友,我解释一下:这是一种极不公平的安排,每年不管经理人有没有做出任何成绩——哪怕他让你亏了一大笔钱——你都要把本金的 2% 交给他;另外,如果他真做成了,不管这成绩是不是仅仅靠水涨船高,你还要把利润的 20% 分给他。举个例子:某位经理人一年做到 10% 的总回报,他会拿走 3.6 个百分点——先扣 2 个点,再拿剩余 8 个点的 20%——留给投资者的只剩 6.4 个百分点。一个 30 亿美元的基金,这 6.4% 的净“业绩”能给经理人带来整整 1.08 亿美元的进账。而他拿到这笔横财的同时,同一时期一只指数基金带给投资者的回报可能是 15%,收取的费用却只是象征性的一点。

In last year’s report I allegorically described the Gotrocks family – a clan that owned all of America’s businesses and that counterproductively attempted to increase its investment returns by paying ever-greater commissions and fees to “helpers.” Sad to say, the “family” continued its self-destructive ways in 2006. In part the family persists in this folly because it harbors unrealistic expectations about obtainable returns. Sometimes these delusions are self-serving. For example, private pension plans can temporarily overstate their earnings, and public pension plans can defer the need for increased taxes, by using investment assumptions that are likely to be out of reach. Actuaries and auditors go along with these tactics, and it can be decades before the chickens come home to roost (at which point the CEO or public official who misled the world is apt to be gone). Meanwhile, Wall Street’s Pied Pipers of Performance will have encouraged the futile hopes of the family. The hapless Gotrocks will be assured that they all can achieve above-average investment performance – but only by paying ever-higher fees. Call this promise the adult version of Lake Woebegon. In 2006, promises and fees hit new highs. A flood of money went from institutional investors to the 2-and-20 crowd. For those innocent of this arrangement, let me explain: It’s a lopsided system whereby 2% of your principal is paid each year to the manager even if he accomplishes nothing – or, for that matter, loses you a bundle – and, additionally, 20% of your profit is paid to him if he succeeds, even if his success is due simply to a rising tide. For example, a manager who achieves a gross return of 10% in a year will keep 3.6 percentage points – two points off the top plus 20% of the residual 8 points – leaving only 6.4 percentage points for his investors. On a $3 billion fund, this 6.4% net “performance” will deliver the manager a cool $108 million. He will receive this bonanza even though an index fund might have returned 15% to investors in the same period and charged them only a token fee.

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这个荒诞安排的数学是冷酷无情的,时间一长,势必让戈特罗克斯家族比从未听说过这些“超级帮手”时更穷。即便如此,“2-20”的做法照样蔓延开来。它的后果让人想起那句老话:当有经验的人向有钱人提议一笔交易时,往往是那个有钱人最终得到了经验,而有经验的人最终得到了钱。

The inexorable math of this grotesque arrangement is certain to make the Gotrocks family poorer over time than it would have been had it never heard of these “hyper-helpers.” Even so, the 2-and-20 action spreads. Its effects bring to mind the old adage: When someone with experience proposes a deal to someone with money, too often the fellow with money ends up with the experience, and the fellow with experience ends up with the money.

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在这部分结束前,我想讲讲华尔街的一位好人,我的老朋友沃尔特·施洛斯,他去年刚满 90 岁。从 1956 年到 2002 年,沃尔特管理着一个极为成功的投资合伙基金,除非他的投资者赚了钱,否则他一分钱也不取。我得说,我对沃尔特的敬佩并非事后诸葛。整整 50 年前,我曾向圣路易斯一个家庭推荐他,那是他们想要一位诚实且能干的投资经理,而沃尔特是我唯一的推荐人选。沃尔特没上过商学院,甚至没上过大学。1956 年他的办公室只有一个文件柜,到 2002 年才增加到四个。沃尔特没有秘书、文员或记账员,唯一的搭档是他的儿子埃德温,埃德温毕业于北卡罗来纳艺术学院。沃尔特和埃德温从未触碰过内幕信息,实际上,连“外部”信息他们都用得很少,通常只是靠沃尔特在为本·格雷厄姆工作时学到的一些简单统计方法来挑选证券。1989 年,当《杰出投资者文摘》问他们“你们怎么总结自己的方法?”时,埃德温回答:“我们尽量买便宜的股票。”现代投资组合理论、技术分析、宏观经济思考以及复杂算法,就此被抛在一边。沃尔特采用的策略不涉及真正风险——我指资本永久损失的风险——而他在 47 年的合伙生涯中,取得的成绩远超标普 500 指数。尤其值得注意的是,他是在投资约 1000 只证券、且大多是平淡无奇的类型时建立这一业绩的。少数几个大赢家并非他成功的原因。可以肯定地说,如果有几百万投资经理通过以下方式交易:a)从帽子里抽股票名;b)在沃尔特买入时以相近金额买入这些股票;然后 c)在沃尔特卖出时卖出他所选股票,那么他们中运气最好的也远远达不到他的记录。沃尔特在 47 年间所取得的成就,绝不可能归因于运气。我第一次公开谈论沃尔特的非凡业绩是在 1984 年。那时,“有效市场理论”(EMT)是大多数主要商学院投资教学的核心内容。该理论(当时普遍讲授的版本)认为,任何股票在任何时刻的价格都无从证明被错误定价,这意味着,没有哪位投资者能仅靠公开信息跑赢股市平均值(尽管有人会凭运气做到)。当我 23 年前谈到沃尔特时,他的业绩有力反驳了这一教条。当学术界人士接触到这一新的重要证据时,他们作何反应呢?遗憾的是,他们以再人性化不过的方式回应:不是放宽眼界,而是闭上了双眼。据我所知,没有任何一所教授 EMT 的商学院尝试研究沃尔特的业绩及其对该校珍视理论的启示。相反,那些院系的教员们继续愉快地讲授 EMT,仿佛它有圣经般的确定性。通常,哪位金融讲师若胆敢质疑 EMT,他晋升的机会就跟伽利略当上教皇的机会差不多。于是,数以万计的学生在走向社会时坚信,每天的股价都是“对的”(或者更准确地说,无从证明是错的),而且评估企业(也就是股票)的努力纯属徒劳。与此同时,沃尔特继续创造超额业绩,而那些误人子弟的教导让他的工作更容易了。毕竟,如果你干的是航运这一行,你的潜在竞争者全被教导说地球是平的,这当然对你有好处。或许,沃尔特没上过大学,对他的投资者来说反倒是件好事。

Let me end this section by telling you about one of the good guys of Wall Street, my long-time friend Walter Schloss, who last year turned 90. From 1956 to 2002, Walter managed a remarkably successful investment partnership, from which he took not a dime unless his investors made money. My admiration for Walter, it should be noted, is not based on hindsight. A full fifty years ago, Walter was my sole recommendation to a St. Louis family who wanted an honest and able investment manager. Walter did not go to business school, or for that matter, college. His office contained one file cabinet in 1956; the number mushroomed to four by 2002. Walter worked without a secretary, clerk or bookkeeper, his only associate being his son, Edwin, a graduate of the North Carolina School of the Arts. Walter and Edwin never came within a mile of inside information. Indeed, they used “outside” information only sparingly, generally selecting securities by certain simple statistical methods Walter learned while working for Ben Graham. When Walter and Edwin were asked in 1989 by Outstanding Investors Digest, “How would you summarize your approach?” Edwin replied, “We try to buy stocks cheap.” So much for Modern Portfolio Theory, technical analysis, macroeconomic thoughts and complex algorithms. Following a strategy that involved no real risk – defined as permanent loss of capital – Walter produced results over his 47 partnership years that dramatically surpassed those of the S&P 500. It’s particularly noteworthy that he built this record by investing in about 1,000 securities, mostly of a lackluster type. A few big winners did not account for his success. It’s safe to say that had millions of investment managers made trades by a) drawing stock names from a hat; b) purchasing these stocks in comparable amounts when Walter made a purchase; and then c) selling when Walter sold his pick, the luckiest of them would not have come close to equaling his record. There is simply no possibility that what Walter achieved over 47 years was due to chance. I first publicly discussed Walter’s remarkable record in 1984. At that time “efficient market theory” (EMT) was the centerpiece of investment instruction at most major business schools. This theory, as then most commonly taught, held that the price of any stock at any moment is not demonstrably mispriced, which means that no investor can be expected to overperform the stock market averages using only publicly-available information (though some will do so by luck). When I talked about Walter 23 years ago, his record forcefully contradicted this dogma. And what did members of the academic community do when they were exposed to this new and important evidence? Unfortunately, they reacted in all-too-human fashion: Rather than opening their minds, they closed their eyes. To my knowledge no business school teaching EMT made any attempt to study Walter’s performance and what it meant for the school’s cherished theory. Instead, the faculties of the schools went merrily on their way presenting EMT as having the certainty of scripture. Typically, a finance instructor who had the nerve to question EMT had about as much chance of major promotion as Galileo had of being named Pope. Tens of thousands of students were therefore sent out into life believing that on every day the price of every stock was “right” (or, more accurately, not demonstrably wrong) and that attempts to evaluate businesses – that is, stocks – were useless. Walter meanwhile went on overperforming, his job made easier by the misguided instructions that had been given to those young minds. After all, if you are in the shipping business, it’s helpful to have all of your potential competitors be taught that the earth is flat. Maybe it was a good thing for his investors that Walter didn’t go to college.

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股东大会

今年的股东大会定于 5 月 5 日,星期六举行。和往常一样,Qwest 中心的大门将在早上 7 点打开,上午 8 点半将播放一部新的伯克希尔电影。9 点半我们将直接进入问答环节,这一环节(中间在 Qwest 的展台处安排午餐休息)将持续到下午 3 点。随后,经过短暂的休息,我和查理将在下午 3 点 15 分召集股东大会。如果你决定在当天的问答环节中途离场,请务必在查理发言时离开。当然,离开的最佳理由是去购物。为了帮你做到这一点,我们将在紧邻会场、面积达 19.43 万平方英尺的大厅里,摆满伯克希尔子公司的产品。去年,前来参会的 2.4 万人个个踊跃,几乎每个展位都创下了销售纪录。但纪录就是用来打破的,我知道你们能做得更好。今年我们将再次展示一栋克莱顿住宅(配备阿克米砖、萧氏地毯、约翰斯·曼维尔保温材料、米泰克紧固件、无忧遮阳篷和 NFM 家具)。你会发现,这栋定价 13.99 万美元的房子,物超所值。去年,Qwest 的一名工作人员在我们向股东开门之前,就买下了展示的两栋房子中的一栋。今年展厅里克莱顿住宅的两侧,将摆放森林河房车公司的房车和浮筒船。GEICO 将设一个展位,由来自全国各地的多位顶级保险顾问驻场,随时准备为你提供车险报价。在大多数情况下,GEICO 能给你提供特别的股东折扣(通常为 8%)。在我们开展业务的 50 个州中,有 45 个州允许这项特别优惠。(补充一点:如果你符合其他折扣条件,比如某些团体优惠,这项折扣不能叠加。)带上你现有保险的详细资料,看看我们能否帮你省钱。我相信,你们中至少有一半人能省下钱来。顺便,还可以申请一张新的 GEICO 信用卡。我现在用的就是这张卡(当然,用得不多)。周六在奥马哈机场,我们将照例安排一批 NetJets 公务航空的飞机供你参观。请到 Qwest 的 NetJets 展位了解如何观看这些飞机。坐大巴来奥马哈,开着自己的新飞机离开。而且,想带多少发胶上飞机都随你。在我们集市的书虫角,将摆出约 25 种书籍和 DVD——全部打折——其中头牌仍是《穷查理宝典》。(去年有位倒霉的仁兄问查理,如果他不喜欢这本书该怎么办。查理式回答脱口而出:“没问题——把它送给更聪明的人就行了。”)今年我们增添了几种新书,其中包括伯克希尔长期股东、瑞典人彼得·贝弗林的《寻求智慧:从达尔文到芒格》,以及弗雷德·施韦德的经典之作《客户的游艇在哪里?》。这本书 1940 年首次出版,如今已是第 4 版。它是有史以来关于投资的最有趣的书,轻松愉快中传递了许多真正重要的投资道理。随本报告附上的委托材料里有一份附件,说明如何获取入场凭证,以便参加股东大会和其他活动。至于飞机、酒店和租车的预订,我们再次与 American Express 公司(800-799-6634)签约,为你提供特别协助。卡罗尔·佩德森负责处理这些事务,她每年都为我们做得非常出色,我在此向她表示感谢。酒店房间可能不好找,但找卡罗尔帮忙,你一定能订到。在内布拉斯加家具城(位于 72 街 Dodge 街与 Pacific 街之间的 77 英亩地块上),我们将再次推出“伯克希尔周末”折扣价。十年前我们首次在 NFM 推出这一特别活动,“周末”期间的销售额从 1997 年的 530 万美元增长到了 2006 年的 3000 万美元。一想到这个数字,我就浑身起鸡皮疙瘩。要想享受伯克希尔折扣,你必须在 5 月 3 日(星期四)至 5 月 7 日(星期一)期间购物(含首尾两天),并出示你的会议凭证。这一时期的特别定价甚至适用于几家知名制造商的产品,这些厂商通常对折扣有铁律般的限制,但本着我们股东周末的精神,它们为你破了例。我们感谢它们的配合。NFM 周一至周六的营业时间为上午 10 点至晚上 9 点,周日为上午 10 点。

The Annual Meeting Our meeting this year will be held on Saturday, May 5th. As always, the doors will open at the Qwest Center at 7 a.m., and a new Berkshire movie will be shown at 8:30. At 9:30 we will go directly to the question-and-answer period, which (with a break for lunch at the Qwest’s stands) will last until 3:00. Then, after a short recess, Charlie and I will convene the annual meeting at 3:15. If you decide to leave during the day’s question periods, please do so while Charlie is talking. The best reason to exit, of course is to shop. We will help you do that by filling the 194,300 square foot hall that adjoins the meeting area with the products of Berkshire subsidiaries. Last year, the 24,000 people who came to the meeting did their part, and almost every location racked up record sales. But records are made to be broken, and I know you can do better. This year we will again showcase a Clayton home (featuring Acme brick, Shaw carpet, Johns Manville insulation, MiTek fasteners, Carefree awnings and NFM furniture). You will find that the home, priced at $139,900, delivers excellent value. Last year, a helper at the Qwest bought one of two homes on display well before we opened the doors to shareholders. Flanking the Clayton home on the exhibition floor this year will be an RV and pontoon boat from Forest River. GEICO will have a booth staffed by a number of its top counselors from around the country, all of them ready to supply you with auto insurance quotes. In most cases, GEICO will be able to give you a special shareholder discount (usually 8%). This special offer is permitted by 45 of the 50 jurisdictions in which we operate. (One supplemental point: The discount is not additive if you qualify for another, such as that given certain groups.) Bring the details of your existing insurance and check out whether we can save you money. For at least 50% of you, I believe we can. And while you’re at it, sign up for the new GEICO credit card. It’s the one I now use (sparingly, of course). On Saturday, at the Omaha airport, we will have the usual array of aircraft from NetJets available for your inspection. Stop by the NetJets booth at the Qwest to learn about viewing these planes. Come to Omaha by bus; leave in your new plane. And take all the hair gel that you wish on board with you. In the Bookworm’s corner of our bazaar, there will be about 25 books and DVDs – all discounted – led again by Poor Charlie’s Almanack. (One hapless soul last year asked Charlie what he should do if he didn’t enjoy the book. Back came a Mungerism: “No problem – just give it to someone more intelligent.”) We’ve added a few titles this year. Among them are Seeking Wisdom: From Darwin to Munger by Peter Bevelin, a long-time Swedish shareholder of Berkshire, and Fred Schwed’s classic, Where are the Customers’ Yachts? This book was first published in 1940 and is now in its 4th edition. The funniest book ever written about investing, it lightly delivers many truly important messages on the subject. An attachment to the proxy material that is enclosed with this report explains how you can obtain the credential you will need for admission to the meeting and other events. As for plane, hotel and car reservations, we have again signed up American Express (800-799-6634) to give you special help. Carol Pedersen, who handles these matters, does a terrific job for us each year, and I thank her for it. Hotel rooms can be hard to find, but work with Carol and you will get one. At Nebraska Furniture Mart, located on a 77-acre site on 72nd Street between Dodge and Pacific, we will again be having “Berkshire Weekend” discount pricing. We initiated this special event at NFM ten years ago, and sales during the “Weekend” grew from $5.3 million in 1997 to $30 million in 2006. I get goose bumps just thinking about this volume. To obtain the Berkshire discount, you must make your purchases between Thursday, May 3rd and Monday, May 7th inclusive, and also present your meeting credential. The period’s special pricing will even apply to the products of several prestigious manufacturers that normally have ironclad rules against discounting but which, in the spirit of our shareholder weekend, have made an exception for you. We appreciate their cooperation. NFM is open from 10 a.m. to 9 p.m. Monday through Saturday, and 10 a.m.

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周日营业至下午 6 点。今年周六下午 5 点半到 8 点,内布拉斯加家具城将举办一场特别的股东野餐会,供应鸡肉和牛肉塔可(还有像我这样传统口味的人喜欢的汉堡)。在翻新扩建后的博尔斯海姆珠宝,我们将再次举办两场仅限股东参加的活动。第一场是 5 月 4 日周五晚上 6 点到 10 点的鸡尾酒招待会。第二场是 5 月 6 日周日早上 9 点到下午 4 点的主庆典。周六我们会营业到下午 6 点。整个周末博尔斯海姆珠宝都会人潮涌动。为了方便您购物,股东专属价格将从 4 月 30 日周一持续到 5 月 12 日周六。在此期间,请出示您的股东证件或显示您持有伯克希尔股票的券商对账单,以表明股东身份。周日,在博尔斯海姆珠宝外的帐篷里,两届美国国际象棋冠军帕特里克·沃尔夫将蒙上眼睛,以六人为一组,迎战所有睁大眼睛的挑战者。去年我就这样和他下棋的同时聊了聊天。旁边,来自达拉斯的杰出魔术师诺曼·贝克会让围观者看得目瞪口呆。此外,我们还有两位世界顶级桥牌专家鲍勃·哈曼和莎伦·奥斯伯格,将在周日下午与股东们一起打桥牌。为了给周日的博尔斯海姆珠宝增添更多乐趣,邢延华将从下午 1 点到 4 点打乒乓球,迎接任何有勇气挑战她的人。邢延华虽然只有 11 岁,但她是美国 16 岁以下女子组排名第一的选手(在 12 岁以下组中,无论男女,她都是第一)。在我 75 岁那周,我和当时 9 岁、个子刚够看到球台对面的邢延华打球,本想手下留情,免得打击她幼小的心灵。结果反而是她把我打得落花流水。从那时起,我就琢磨出了一个能跟她一较高下的办法。周日下午 1 点,我将率先与邢延华进行一场 2 分的比赛。如果我侥幸赢下第一分,我就会假装受伤,然后宣布胜利。等这场激烈交锋把邢延华耗得筋疲力尽后,我们的股东就可以去碰碰运气了。戈拉特餐厅将于 5 月 6 日周日再次只为伯克希尔股东开放,营业时间为下午 4 点到晚上 10 点。请记住,那天要去戈拉特餐厅,必须提前预订。您可以在 4 月 1 日(不要提前)拨打 402-551-3733 进行预订。在 2006-2007 学年,将有 35 个大学班级(包括来自巴西 IBMEC 商学院的一班)来奥马哈与我交流。我几乎会带所有学生——总数超过 2000 人——去戈拉特餐厅吃午饭。他们都很喜欢那里。想知道为什么,周日来加入我们吧。周六下午 4 点,我们将再次为来自北美以外的股东举办招待会。每年我们的股东大会都会吸引全球各地的人前来,查理和我希望能亲自问候这些远道而来的朋友。去年我们很高兴见到了来自几十个国家的 400 多位股东。任何来自美国或加拿大以外的股东,都将获得特别证件和参加此次活动的说明。

to 6 p.m. on Sunday. On Saturday this year, from 5:30 p.m. to 8 p.m., NFM is having a special shareholder picnic featuring chicken and beef tacos (and hamburgers for traditionalists like me). At a remodeled and expanded Borsheim’s, we will again have two shareholder-only events. The first will be a cocktail reception from 6 p.m. to 10 p.m. on Friday, May 4th. The second, the main gala, will be held on Sunday, May 6th, from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. On Saturday, we will be open until 6 p.m. We will have huge crowds at Borsheim’s throughout the weekend. For your convenience, therefore, shareholder prices will be available from Monday, April 30th through Saturday, May 12th. During that period, please identify yourself as a shareholder by presenting your meeting credentials or a brokerage statement that shows you are a Berkshire holder. On Sunday, in a tent outside of Borsheim’s, a blindfolded Patrick Wolff, twice U.S. chess champion, will take on all comers – who will have their eyes wide open – in groups of six. Last year I carried on a conversation with Patrick while he played in this manner. Nearby, Norman Beck, a remarkable magician from Dallas, will bewilder onlookers. Additionally, we will have Bob Hamman and Sharon Osberg, two of the world’s top bridge experts, available to play bridge with our shareholders on Sunday afternoon. To add to the Sunday fun at Borsheim’s, Ariel Hsing will play table tennis (ping-pong to the uninitiated) from 1 p.m. to 4 p.m. against anyone brave enough to take her on. Ariel, though only 11, is ranked number one among girls under 16 in the U.S. (and number 1 among both boys and girls under 12). The week I turned 75 I played Ariel, then 9 and barely tall enough to see across the table, thinking I would take it easy on her so as not to crush her young spirit. Instead she crushed me. I’ve since devised a plan that will give me a chance against her. At 1 p.m. on Sunday, I will initiate play with a 2-point game against Ariel. If I somehow win the first point, I will then feign injury and claim victory. After this strenuous encounter wears Ariel down, our shareholders can then try their luck against her. Gorat’s will again be open exclusively for Berkshire shareholders on Sunday, May 6th, and will be serving from 4 p.m. until 10 p.m. Please remember that to come to Gorat’s on that day, you must have a reservation. To make one, call 402-551-3733 on April 1st (but not before). In the 2006-2007 school year, 35 university classes, including one from IBMEC in Brazil, will come to Omaha for sessions with me. I take almost all – in aggregate, more than 2,000 students – to lunch at Gorat’s. And they love it. To learn why, come join us on Sunday. We will again have a reception at 4 p.m. on Saturday afternoon for shareholders who have come from outside of North America. Every year our meeting draws many people from around the globe, and Charlie and I want to be sure we personally greet those who have come so far. Last year we enjoyed meeting more than 400 of you from many dozens of countries. Any shareholder who comes from other than the U.S. or Canada will be given a special credential and instructions for attending this function.

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查理和我极其幸运。我们出生在美国;拥有出色的父母,他们确保我们接受了良好的教育;享有美满的家庭和健康的身体;并且天生带有一条“商业”基因,让我们得以以远超其他为社会福祉贡献同等甚至更多的人的方式兴旺发达。此外,我们长期从事热爱的工作,每天在无数方面得到才华横溢、相处愉快的同事们的帮助。难怪我们跳着踢踏舞去上班。但对我们来说,没有什么比在伯克希尔股东大会上与我们的股东合伙人相聚更有趣的事了。所以,请在 5 月 5 日来 Qwest 中心参加我们一年一度的“资本家伍德斯托克”盛会。我们到时见。2007 年 2 月 28 日

Charlie and I are extraordinarily lucky. We were born in America; had terrific parents who saw that we got good educations; have enjoyed wonderful families and great health; and came equipped with a “business” gene that allows us to prosper in a manner hugely disproportionate to other people who contribute as much or more to our society’s well-being. Moreover, we have long had jobs that we love, in which we are helped every day in countless ways by talented and cheerful associates. No wonder we tapdance to work. But nothing is more fun for us than getting together with our shareholder-partners at Berkshire’s annual meeting. So join us on May 5th at the Qwest for our annual Woodstock for Capitalists. We’ll see you there. February 28, 2007

沃伦·E·巴菲特 董事会主席

Warren E. Buffett Chairman of the Board

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