2024 年致股东信

致股东信 · 原文约 5356 词
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伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.

致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司全体股东:

To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

这封信是伯克希尔年报的一部分。作为一家上市公司,我们被要求定期向你们讲述许多具体事实与数字。然而,“报告”二字意味着更大的责任。除了法定要求的数据,我们认为我们还应当向你们额外说明你们持有的是什么,以及我们是如何思考的。我们的目标是,以我们希望你们会采用的方式与你们沟通——如果我们的角色互换的话;也就是说,如果你们是伯克希尔的 CEO,而我和家人只是将积蓄托付给你们的被动投资者,我们便会这样做。这种方针引导我们每年叙述一遍你们通过伯克希尔股票间接拥有的众多企业里发生的如意与不如意之事。不过,在讨论具体子公司的具体问题时,我们尽量遵循汤姆·墨菲 60 年前给我的忠告:“表扬点名,批评归类。”

This letter comes to you as part of Berkshire’s annual report. As a public company, we are required to periodically tell you many specific facts and figures. “Report,” however, implies a greater responsibility. In addition to the mandated data, we believe we owe you additional commentary about what you own and how we think. Our goal is to communicate with you in a manner that we would wish you to use if our positions were reversed – that is, if you were Berkshire’s CEO while I and my family were passive investors, trusting you with our savings. This approach leads us to an annual recitation of both good and bad developments at the many businesses you indirectly own through your Berkshire shares. When discussing problems at specific subsidiaries, we do, however, try to follow the advice Tom Murphy gave to me 60 years ago: “praise by name, criticize by category.”

错误——是的,我们在伯克希尔也犯错

Mistakes – Yes, We Make Them at Berkshire

有些时候,我在评估为伯克希尔收购的企业的未来经济前景时犯了错误——每一桩都是资本配置的失手。这种情况既发生在对可交易普通股的判断上——我们将这些视为企业的部分所有权——也发生在对公司的 100% 收购上。此外还有些时候,我在评估伯克希尔所聘经理人的能力或忠诚度时也犯了错。忠诚方面的失望,其痛苦可能不止于财务影响,那种痛楚堪比一桩失败的婚姻。在人事决策上,能维持一个过得去的命中率就是能指望的最好结果了。最不可饶恕的是拖延对错误的纠正,或者如查理·芒格所称的“嘬手指”。他会对我说,问题不会因你一厢情愿就自行消失,它们需要行动,无论这行动有多令人不舒服。

Sometimes I’ve made mistakes in assessing the future economics of a business I’ve purchased for Berkshire – each a case of capital allocation gone wrong. That happens with both judgments about marketable equities – we view these as partial ownership of businesses – and the 100% acquisitions of companies. At other times, I’ve made mistakes when assessing the abilities or fidelity of the managers Berkshire is hiring. The fidelity disappointments can hurt beyond their financial impact, a pain that can approach that of a failed marriage. A decent batting average in personnel decisions is all that can be hoped for. The cardinal sin is delaying the correction of mistakes or what Charlie Munger called “thumb-sucking.” Problems, he would tell me, cannot be wished away. They require action, however uncomfortable that may be.

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在 2019 年至 2023 年间,我在给你们写的信里用过 16 次“错误”或“失误”这两个词。同一时期,许多其他庞然大物般的公司一次都没用过。我应当承认,亚马逊在 2021 年的信中写了一些极其坦白的观察。除此之外,普遍都是些快活的言语和图片。

During the 2019-23 period, I have used the words “mistake” or “error” 16 times in my letters to you. Many other huge companies have never used either word over that span. Amazon, I should acknowledge, made some brutally candid observations in its 2021 letter. Elsewhere, it has generally been happy talk and pictures.

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我还曾担任过几家大型上市公司的董事,在这些公司里,“错误”或“失误”是董事会会议或分析师电话会上的禁词。这种暗含管理层完美无缺的禁忌,总是令我很不安(虽说有时候,确实存在法律上的考量,使得有限讨论是明智的。我们生活在一个动辄兴讼的社会里。)

I have also been a director of large public companies at which “mistake” or “wrong” were forbidden words at board meetings or analyst calls. That taboo, implying managerial perfection, always made me nervous (though, at times, there could be legal issues that make limited discussion advisable. We live in a very litigious society.)

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我如今 94 岁,不需太久,格雷格·阿贝尔将接替我出任 CEO,并将执笔周年信。格雷格认同伯克希尔的信条:一份“报告”,是伯克希尔 CEO 每年应交付给股东的东西。他也明白,你一旦开始糊弄股东,很快就会相信自己的那通瞎话,连自己也一并糊弄了。

At 94, it won’t be long before Greg Abel replaces me as CEO and will be writing the annual letters. Greg shares the Berkshire creed that a “report” is what a Berkshire CEO annually owes to owners. And he also understands that if you start fooling your shareholders, you will soon believe your own baloney and be fooling yourself as well.

皮特·利格尔——与众不同的人

Pete Liegl – One of a Kind

请容我停下来,讲一讲皮特·利格尔的故事。伯克希尔绝大多数股东都不认识他,可他为大家的总财富添了几十亿美元。皮特今年十一月过世,享年八十,走时仍在岗位上。我第一次听说“森林之河”——这家由皮特一手创办并经营的印第安纳州公司——是在 2005 年 6 月 21 日。那天我收到一封中介来信,详列了这家休闲车(简称“RV”)制造商的相关数据。信里说,作为森林之河全资股东的皮特,只想把公司卖给伯克希尔,并写明了他期望的价格。我喜欢这种不绕弯子的做法。我向几家 RV 经销商打听了一番,越听越满意,于是约在 6 月 28 日于奥马哈见面。皮特带上了妻子莎伦和女儿丽莎。见面时,皮特跟我保证,他愿意继续把公司经营下去,只是希望能给家人一份财务上的安稳。接着他提到,自己名下还有几处房产租给了森林之河,6 月 21 日那封信里没提。几分钟内我们就敲定了这些房产的价格——我说伯克希尔不必再做评估,他开的价我照单全收。然后是最后一个需要说清的问题。我问皮特想拿多少薪酬,还补了一句:无论他开多少,我都答应。(顺便说一句,这种做法我可不建议照搬。)皮特顿了顿,他的妻子、女儿和我都不由得探身向前。接着他给了我们一个意外:“嗯,我看过伯克希尔的股东委托书,我不想比老板挣得还多,那就一年给我 10 万美元吧。”等我从地上把自己扶起来,皮特又添了一句:“不过我们今年会赚 X(他报了个数),我希望能拿一笔年度奖金,相当于超出公司现有盈利那部分的 10%。”我回他:“行,皮特。不过要是森林之河将来做了大笔收购,我们会就多投入的这部分资本做个合理调整。”我没有给“合理”或“大笔”下定义,可这些含糊的字眼从没惹出过一点麻烦。

Let me pause to tell you the remarkable story of Pete Liegl, a man unknown to most Berkshire shareholders but one who contributed many billions to their aggregate wealth. Pete died in November, still working at 80. I first heard of Forest River – the Indiana company Pete founded and managed – on June 21, 2005. On that day I received a letter from an intermediary detailing relevant data about the company, a recreational vehicle (“RV”) manufacturer. The writer said that Pete, the 100% owner of Forest River, specifically wanted to sell to Berkshire. He also told me the price that Pete expected to receive. I liked this no-nonsense approach. I did some checking with RV dealers, liked what I learned and arranged a June 28th meeting in Omaha. Pete brought along his wife, Sharon, and daughter, Lisa. When we met, Pete assured me that he wanted to keep running the business but would feel more comfortable if he could assure financial security for his family. Pete next mentioned that he owned some real estate that was leased to Forest River and had not been covered in the June 21 letter. Within a few minutes, we arrived at a price for those assets as I expressed no need for appraisal by Berkshire but would simply accept his valuation. Then we arrived at the other point that needed clarity. I asked Pete what his compensation should be, adding that whatever he said, I would accept. (This, I should add, is not an approach I recommend for general use.) Pete paused as his wife, daughter and I leaned forward. Then he surprised us: “Well, I looked at Berkshire’s proxy statement and I wouldn’t want to make more than my boss, so pay me $100,000 per year.” After I picked myself off the floor, Pete added: “But we will earn X (he named a number) this year, and I would like an annual bonus of 10% of any earnings above what the company is now delivering.” I replied: “OK Pete, but if Forest River makes any significant acquisitions we will make an appropriate adjustment for the additional capital thus employed.” I didn’t define “appropriate” or “significant,” but those vague terms never caused a problem.

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之后我们四人便一同去了奥马哈的欢乐谷俱乐部(Happy Hollow Club)吃晚饭,从此皆大欢喜。在接下来的 19 年里,皮特业绩惊人,无一竞争对手能望其项背。

The four of us then went to dinner at Omaha’s Happy Hollow Club and lived happily ever after. During the next 19 years, Pete shot the lights out. No competitor came close to his performance.

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不是每家公司都有一个容易理解的生意,也极少有像皮特这样的股东或经理人。而且,理所当然,我在评估伯克希尔所购企业时必定会犯我那份错误,在评估与我打交道的是哪类人时,也时而会出错。但我也收获过许多意外之喜,既关于企业的潜力,也关于经理人的能力与忠诚。而我们的经验是,一次成功的决策,随时间推移,能带来令人叹为观止的差别。(试想 GEICO 作为一桩生意决策,阿吉特·贾恩作为一次用人决策,以及我有幸找到查理·芒格作为一位独一无二的搭档、私人顾问与矢志不渝的朋友。)错误渐渐逝去;赢家则可以永远绽放。

Every company doesn’t have an easy-to-understand business and there are very few owners or managers like Pete. And, of course, I expect to make my share of mistakes about the businesses Berkshire buys and sometimes err in evaluating the sort of person with whom I’m dealing. But I’ve also had many pleasant surprises in both the potential of the business as well as the ability and fidelity of the manager. And our experience is that a single winning decision can make a breathtaking difference over time. (Think GEICO as a business decision, Ajit Jain as a managerial decision and my luck in finding Charlie Munger as a one-of-a-kind partner, personal advisor and steadfast friend.) Mistakes fade away; winners can forever blossom.

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我们挑选 CEO 的又一要点:我从不看候选人上的是什么学校。从不!当然,有些了不起的经理人上过最顶尖的名校。但也有许多像皮特这样的人,可能受益于上了一所不那么有名的大学,甚至没费心读完书。瞧瞧我的朋友比尔·盖茨,他认定,在一个即将改变世界的爆发性行业里马上行动起来,远比耗着拿到一张能挂在墙上的羊皮纸要重要得多。(读读他的新书《源代码》吧。)不久前,我通过电话结识了杰西卡·图恩克尔,她的继外祖父本·罗斯纳在很久以前为查理和我打理过一桩生意。本是一个零售业天才,为准备这份报告,我向杰西卡核证了本的受教育情况,我记得他读书不多。杰西卡回复说:“本只念到 6 年级,没再往下读。”我十分有幸在三所优秀的大学受过教育,也热衷信奉终身学习。然而我观察到,商业才能中有很大一部分是天生的,天性强于教养。皮特·利格尔便是个天生之才。

One further point in our CEO selections: I never look at where a candidate has gone to school. Never! Of course, there are great managers who attended the most famous schools. But there are plenty such as Pete who may have benefitted by attending a less prestigious institution or even by not bothering to finish school. Look at my friend, Bill Gates, who decided that it was far more important to get underway in an exploding industry that would change the world than it was to stick around for a parchment that he could hang on the wall. (Read his new book, Source Code.) Not long ago, I met – by phone – Jessica Toonkel, whose step-grandfather, Ben Rosner, long ago ran a business for Charlie and me. Ben was a retailing genius and, in preparing for this report, I checked with Jessica to confirm Ben’s schooling, which I remembered as limited. Jessica’s reply: “Ben never went past 6th grade.” I was lucky enough to get an education at three fine universities. And I avidly believe in lifelong learning. I’ve observed, however, that a very large portion of business talent is innate with nature swamping nurture. Pete Liegl was a natural.

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去年业绩 在 2024 年,伯克希尔的表现比我预期要好,尽管我们 189 家运营企业中有 53% 报告了盈利下滑。我们受益于投资收益可预见的强劲增长,因为国库券收益率提升,并且我们大幅增加了这类高流动性短期证券的持有量。我们的保险业务也实现了利润大幅增长,GEICO 的表现居功至伟。五年间,托德·康姆斯对 GEICO 进行了重大改造,提升了效率,并使承保作业跟上时代。GEICO 是一颗持有多年却亟需重大重新打磨的宝石,托德勤勤恳恳地努力完成这项任务。虽尚未全部完成,但 2024 年的改进是惊人的。总体而言,财产-意外(“P/C”)保险定价在 2024 年有所走强,反映出对流风暴所致损失的大幅攀升。气候变化或许早已宣告降临。然而,2024 年并未发生“怪兽级”事件。总有一天,说不准哪一天,一场真正令人惊骇的保险损失将会发生——且无法保证一年仅此一回。P/C 业务对伯克希尔实在太过中心,因此后文将再作论述。伯克希尔的铁路和公用事业运营,这两块我们保险以外最大的生意,合计盈利有所改善。但两者都还有很长的路要走。年底我们将公用事业的持股比例从约 92% 提高到 100%,成本约为 39 亿美元,其中 29 亿美元为现金支付,余款以伯克希尔“B”股支付。

Last Year’s Performance In 2024, Berkshire did better than I expected though 53% of our 189 operating businesses reported a decline in earnings. We were aided by a predictable large gain in investment income as Treasury Bill yields improved and we substantially increased our holdings of these highly-liquid short-term securities. Our insurance business also delivered a major increase in earnings, led by the performance of GEICO. In five years, Todd Combs has reshaped GEICO in a major way, increasing efficiency and bringing underwriting practices up to date. GEICO was a long-held gem that needed major repolishing, and Todd has worked tirelessly in getting the job done. Though not yet complete, the 2024 improvement was spectacular. In general, property-casualty (“P/C”) insurance pricing strengthened during 2024, reflecting a major increase in damage from convective storms. Climate change may have been announcing its arrival. However, no “monster” event occurred during 2024. Someday, any day, a truly staggering insurance loss will occur – and there is no guarantee that there will be only one per annum. The P/C business is so central to Berkshire that it warrants a further discussion that appears later in this letter. Berkshire’s railroad and utility operations, our two largest businesses outside of insurance, improved their aggregate earnings. Both, however, have much left to accomplish. Late in the year we increased our ownership of the utility operation from about 92% to 100% at a cost of roughly $3.9 billion, of which $2.9 billion was paid in cash with a balance in Berkshire “B” shares.

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算下来,2024 年我们录得经营利润 474 亿美元。我们经常——没完没了地,有些读者或许会发出哀叹——强调这项指标,而不是第 K-68 页上报的按 GAAP 规定要求的盈利。我们的指标剔除了我们持有股票和债券的资本利得或损失,无论已实现还是未实现。看长远些,我们认为盈利极有可能占得上风——不然我们为什么买这些证券呢?——尽管逐年的数字会波动剧烈且不可预知。我们对这类投入的视野,几乎总是远不止一年。在许多情况下,我们的考量涉及数十年。正是这些长线持有,有时会让收银机像教堂钟声一样叮当作响。

All told, we recorded operating earnings of $47.4 billion in 2024. We regularly – endlessly, some readers may groan – emphasize this measure rather than the GAAP-mandated earnings that are reported on page K-68. Our measure excludes capital gains or losses on the stocks and bonds we own, whether realized or unrealized. Over time, we think it highly likely that gains will prevail – why else would we buy these securities? – though the year-by-year numbers will swing wildly and unpredictably. Our horizon for such commitments is almost always far longer than a single year. In many, our thinking involves decades. These long-termers are the purchases that sometimes make the cash register ring like church bells.

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以下是我们眼中的 2023 年与 2024 年盈利分解。所有数据均为扣除折旧、摊销和所得税后的结果。EBITDA 是华尔街钟爱却存在缺陷的指标,不予我们采用。(单位:百万美元) 2023 年 2024 年 保险-承保 … … … $ 5,428 $ 9,020 保险-投资收入 … … … 9,567 13,670

Here’s a breakdown of the 2023-24 earnings as we see them. All calculations are after depreciation, amortization and income tax. EBITDA, a flawed favorite of Wall Street, is not for us. (in $ millions) 2023 2024 Insurance-underwriting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 9,020 $ 5,428 Insurance-investment income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13,670 9,567

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BNSF

BNSF . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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5,031 5,087 伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源 3,730 2,331 其他控股企业 13,072 13,362 非控股企业* 1,519 1,750 其他** 1,395 (175) 经营利润 47,437 37,350 *

5,031 5,087 Berkshire Hathaway Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,730 2,331 Other controlled businesses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13,072 13,362 Non-controlled businesses* . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,519 1,750 Other** . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,395 (175) Operating earnings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $47,437 $37,350 *

  • 包括伯克希尔持股比例介于 20% 至 50% 之间的部分企业,如卡夫亨氏、西方石油和 Berkadia。

Includes certain businesses in which Berkshire had between a 20% and 50% ownership such as Kraft Heinz, Occidental Petroleum and Berkadia.

** 包括我们因使用非美元计价债务而产生的汇兑收益:2024 年约 11 亿美元,2023 年约 2.11 亿美元。

** Includes foreign currency exchange gains of approximately $1.1 billion in 2024 and approximately $211 million in 2023 produced by our usage of non-U.S. dollar-denominated debt.

惊喜连连!一项重要的美国纪录就此告破

Surprise, Surprise! An Important American Record is Smashed

六十年前,现任管理层接手了伯克希尔。那步棋走错了——是我的错——一个困扰了我们二十年的错误。我得强调,查理当即就看穿了我这明摆着的失误:我买伯克希尔的价钱看着是便宜,可它的主业——一家北方的大型纺织厂——正走向消亡。就连美国财政部,其实早已收到伯克希尔命运的无声预警。1965 年,这家公司一分钱所得税都没缴,而这种窘境在此前大约十年间已成常态。这种财务表现,放在光鲜的初创公司身上或许还说得过去,可发生在一根德高望重的美国工业支柱身上,那就是一盏闪烁的黄灯。伯克希尔正一步步滑向垃圾堆。把时钟快进 60 年,且想象财政部的错愕:同一家公司——仍以伯克希尔·哈撒韦之名运营——缴纳的企业所得税,竟超过了美国政府有史以来从任何一家公司收到的税款——哪怕是那些市值以万亿计的美国科技巨头也不例外。说得精确些,伯克希尔去年向美国国税局分四笔缴税,共计 268 亿美元,约占全美企业纳税总额的 5%。(此外,我们还向外国政府和 44 个州缴纳了数额可观的所得税。)

Sixty years ago, present management took control of Berkshire. That move was a mistake – my mistake – and one that plagued us for two decades. Charlie, I should emphasize, spotted my obvious error immediately: Though the price I paid for Berkshire looked cheap, its business – a large northern textile operation – was headed for extinction. The U.S. Treasury, of all places, had already received silent warnings of Berkshire’s destiny. In 1965, the company did not pay a dime of income tax, an embarrassment that had generally prevailed at the company for a decade. That sort of economic behavior may be understandable for glamorous startups, but it’s a blinking yellow light when it happens at a venerable pillar of American industry. Berkshire was headed for the ash can. Fast forward 60 years and imagine the surprise at the Treasury when that same company – still operating under the name of Berkshire Hathaway – paid far more in corporate income tax than the U.S. government had ever received from any company – even the American tech titans that commanded market values in the trillions. To be precise, Berkshire last year made four payments to the IRS that totaled $26.8 billion. That’s about 5% of what all of corporate America paid. (In addition, we paid sizable amounts for income taxes to foreign governments and to 44 states.)

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请留意促成这笔破纪录税款的一个关键因素:在 1965 年至 2024 年这同一段岁月里,伯克希尔股东只领到过一次现金股息。1967 年 1 月 3 日,我们派发了唯一的一笔——共 101,755 美元,合每股 A 类股 10 美分。(我已记不清当初为何向董事会提议这么做,如今回想起来简直像一场噩梦。)六十年间,伯克希尔股东始终支持把利润持续再投资,公司得以不断做大应税收入。缴给美国财政部的现金所得税,头十年还微不足道,如今累计已超过 1,010 亿美元……而且还在往上走。

Note one crucial factor allowing this record-shattering payment: Berkshire shareholders during the same 1965-2024 period received only one cash dividend. On January 3, 1967, we disbursed our sole payment – $101,755 or 10¢ per A share. (I can’t remember why I suggested this action to Berkshire’s board of directors. Now it seems like a bad dream.) For sixty years, Berkshire shareholders endorsed continuous reinvestment and that enabled the company to build its taxable income. Cash income-tax payments to the U.S. Treasury, miniscule in the first decade, now aggregate more than $101 billion . . . and counting.

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天文数字往往难以想象。请允许我把去年缴纳的 268 亿美元换个说法:假如伯克希尔在 2024 年全年,每 20 分钟就给财政部寄出一张 100 万美元的支票——请想象整整 366 个日日夜夜,因为 2024 年是闰年——到年底我们仍会欠联邦政府一大笔钱。事实上,要熬到 1 月过了大半,财政部才会通知我们可以喘口气、睡个觉,然后准备缴纳 2025 年的税款了。

Huge numbers can be hard to visualize. Let me recast the $26.8 billion that we paid last year. If Berkshire had sent the Treasury a $1 million check every 20 minutes throughout all of 2024 – visualize 366 days and nights because 2024 was a leap year – we still would have owed the federal government a significant sum at yearend. Indeed, it would be well into January before the Treasury would tell us that we could take a short breather, get some sleep, and prepare for our 2025 tax payments.

你们的钱在哪里

Where Your Money Is

伯克希尔的股权布局是两手并用的。一只手,我们控股众多企业,持有被投资方至少 80% 的股份,通常是 100%。这 189 家子公司与公开交易的普通股有相似之处,却又大不相同。这个组合价值数千亿美元,其中有几颗难得的宝石,有许多不错但远谈不上出色的生意,也有几家令人失望的落后者。我们手里没有构成重大拖累的资产,但确有若干是我本不该买的。另一只手,我们持有十来家规模庞大、利润丰厚、家喻户晓的企业的少量股份,比如苹果、美国运通、可口可乐和穆迪。这些公司里,不少都能在其经营所需的净有形资产上赚取极高的回报。截至年底,我们这部分持股价值 2,720 亿美元。可以理解,真正出类拔萃的企业极少会整体出售,但这些宝石的一小块,周一到周五都能在华尔街买到,偶尔还能碰上便宜价。至于选哪种股权载体,我们并无偏好,全看哪里最能安放你们(以及我家人)的积蓄。多数时候,没什么标的让人心动;极偶尔,我们会发现机会多得让人应接不暇。像查理当年一样,格雷格已经生动地证明了自己在这种时刻果断出手的本事。

Berkshire’s equity activity is ambidextrous. In one hand we own control of many businesses, holding at least 80% of the investee’s shares. Generally, we own 100%. These 189 subsidiaries have similarities to marketable common stocks but are far from identical. The collection is worth many hundreds of billions and includes a few rare gems, many good-but-far-from-fabulous businesses and some laggards that have been disappointments. We own nothing that is a major drag, but we have a number that I should not have purchased. In the other hand, we own a small percentage of a dozen or so very large and highly profitable businesses with household names such as Apple, American Express, Coca-Cola and Moody’s. Many of these companies earn very high returns on the net tangible equity required for their operations. At yearend, our partial-ownership holdings were valued at $272 billion. Understandably, really outstanding businesses are very seldom offered in their entirety, but small fractions of these gems can be purchased Monday through Friday on Wall Street and, very occasionally, they sell at bargain prices. We are impartial in our choice of equity vehicles, investing in either variety based upon where we can best deploy your (and my family’s) savings. Often, nothing looks compelling; very infrequently we find ourselves knee-deep in opportunities. Greg has vividly shown his ability to act at such times as did Charlie.

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持有可交易股票,一旦犯错,掉头要容易得多。但必须强调,伯克希尔如今的体量削弱了这一宝贵的余地。我们没法说进就进、说退就退,有时建仓或清仓要花上一年甚至更久。此外,持有少数股权时,即便必要,我们也无法更换管理层;即便对资本用途的决定不满,也无从干预。换成控股公司,这些决策由我们说了算,可在处置错误上,回旋余地却小得多。事实上,除非我们认定问题无休无止,伯克希尔几乎从不出售控股企业。一个补偿是,正因这份不离不弃的作风,一些企业主会主动找上门来。有时候,这对我们而言可是实打实的加分项。

With marketable equities, it is easier to change course when I make a mistake. Berkshire’s present size, it should be underscored, diminishes this valuable option. We can’t come and go on a dime. Sometimes a year or more is required to establish or divest an investment. Additionally, with ownership of minority positions we can’t change management if that action is needed or control what is done with capital flows if we are unhappy with the decisions being made. With controlled companies, we can dictate these decisions, but we have far less flexibility in the disposition of mistakes. In reality, Berkshire almost never sells controlled businesses unless we face what we believe to be unending problems. An offset is that some business owners seek out Berkshire because of our steadfast behavior. Occasionally, that can be a decided plus for us.

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尽管眼下有些评论者认为伯克希尔的现金头寸高得反常,但你们的钱,绝大部分仍在股票里。这一偏好不会改变。去年我们持有的可交易股票虽然从 3,540 亿美元降到了 2,720 亿美元,但未上市控股股权的价值有所增加,并且仍远高于那部分可交易组合。伯克希尔股东尽可放心:我们将永远把大家的钱绝大部分投在股票上——主要是美国股票,尽管其中许多公司都有相当规模的国际业务。无论控股还是仅持少数股份,伯克希尔永远不会偏爱持有现金等价物,而舍弃好生意。倘若财政上胡来,纸币的价值可能顷刻蒸发。在某些国家,这种鲁莽已成积习;而在我们国家短短的历史中,美国也曾几度逼近那道边缘。固定票息的债券挡不住失控的货币。可企业——以及身怀他人所需才干的个人——只要其商品或服务仍为国民所需,通常总能找到应对货币动荡的办法。个人技能亦然。我没有运动天赋、没有一副好嗓子、不懂医术律法,也没什么别的过人本领,于是一辈子只能仰仗股票。说到底,我一直押注于美国企业的成功,往后也将继续如此。

Despite what some commentators currently view as an extraordinary cash position at Berkshire, the great majority of your money remains in equities. That preference won’t change. While our ownership in marketable equities moved downward last year from $354 billion to $272 billion, the value of our non-quoted controlled equities increased somewhat and remains far greater than the value of the marketable portfolio. Berkshire shareholders can rest assured that we will forever deploy a substantial majority of their money in equities – mostly American equities although many of these will have international operations of significance. Berkshire will never prefer ownership of cash-equivalent assets over the ownership of good businesses, whether controlled or only partially owned. Paper money can see its value evaporate if fiscal folly prevails. In some countries, this reckless practice has become habitual, and, in our country’s short history, the U.S. has come close to the edge. Fixed-coupon bonds provide no protection against runaway currency. Businesses, as well as individuals with desired talents, however, will usually find a way to cope with monetary instability as long as their goods or services are desired by the country’s citizenry. So, too, with personal skills. Lacking such assets as athletic excellence, a wonderful voice, medical or legal skills or, for that matter, any special talents, I have had to rely on equities throughout my life. In effect, I have depended on the success of American businesses and I will continue to do so.

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无论如何,要推动一个社会源源不断地产出人们所需的商品与服务,就离不开公民对积蓄明智——最好还富有想象力——的配置。这套体系名叫资本主义。它有其弊病与流弊,某些方面如今甚至比以往任何时候都更甚,但它同样能创造出其他经济体系无法企及的奇迹。美国便是头号例证。我们这个国家立国不过 235 年,其间取得的进步,即便是 1789 年宪法通过、举国活力被释放之际最乐观的殖民者,也无从想象。

One way or another, the sensible – better yet imaginative – deployment of savings by citizens is required to propel an ever-growing societal output of desired goods and services. This system is called capitalism. It has its faults and abuses – in certain respects more egregious now than ever – but it also can work wonders unmatched by other economic systems. America is Exhibit A. Our country’s progress over its mere 235 years of existence could not have been imagined by even the most optimistic colonists in 1789, when the Constitution was adopted and the country’s energies were unleashed.

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诚然,立国之初,我们有时需向外国举债,以补自身积蓄之不足。但与此同时,我们需要千千万万美国人坚持储蓄,再需要这些储蓄者、或其他美国人把由此腾出的资本明智地配置出去。倘若美国把生产出来的一切都消费掉了,这个国家就只会原地空转。美国这一路走来并不总是光彩——我们国家从不缺骗子和投机客,专挑那些错把积蓄托付于人者下手。可即便有这些不法勾当——它们至今仍甚嚣尘上——即便有大量资本最终因残酷竞争或颠覆式创新而折戟,美国人的积蓄所产出的数量与品质,仍远超任何殖民者的梦想。从区区四百万人口起步——尽管早年还经历过一场美国人自相残杀的惨烈内战——美国竟在天眼一眨的工夫里改变了世界。

True, our country in its infancy sometimes borrowed abroad to supplement our own savings. But, concurrently, we needed many Americans to consistently save and then needed those savers or other Americans to wisely deploy the capital thus made available. If America had consumed all that it produced, the country would have been spinning its wheels. The American process has not always been pretty – our country has forever had many scoundrels and promoters who seek to take advantage of those who mistakenly trust them with their savings. But even with such malfeasance – which remains in full force today – and also much deployment of capital that eventually floundered because of brutal competition or disruptive innovation, the savings of Americans has delivered a quantity and quality of output beyond the dreams of any colonist. From a base of only four million people – and despite a brutal internal war early on, pitting one American against another – America changed the world in the blink of a celestial eye.

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伯克希尔股东以一种极其微小的方式,参与了这场美国奇迹:他们放弃股息,选择再投资而非消费。起初这点再投资微不足道,几近可有可无,但随着岁月流逝,它像蘑菇般疯长开来——这是持之以恒的储蓄文化,与长期复利的魔力交织而成的结果。今天,伯克希尔的触角已伸向我们国家的每一个角落。而且我们远未收手。公司会因种种缘由而消亡,但与人不同,衰老本身并不致命。今日的伯克希尔,比 1965 年时年轻得多。然而正如查理和我一贯承认的那样,若不在美国,伯克希尔断然取得不了今天的成就;反过来,即便伯克希尔从未存在过,美国也照样会是今天这般成功。

In a very minor way, Berkshire shareholders have participated in the American miracle by foregoing dividends, thereby electing to reinvest rather than consume. Originally, this reinvestment was tiny, almost meaningless, but over time, it mushroomed, reflecting the mixture of a sustained culture of savings, combined with the magic of long-term compounding. Berkshire’s activities now impact all corners of our country. And we are not finished. Companies die for many reasons but, unlike the fate of humans, old age itself is not lethal. Berkshire today is far more youthful than it was in 1965. However, as Charlie and I have always acknowledged, Berkshire would not have achieved its results in any locale except America whereas America would have been every bit the success it has been if Berkshire had never existed.

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所以,谢谢你,山姆大叔。总有一天,你在伯克希尔的侄儿侄女们,盼着能给你寄去比 2024 年更大的一笔款子。请把它用在刀刃上,照拂好那许许多多并非因自身过错、却在人生里抽到短签的人。他们值得更好的对待。也请永远记住:我们需要你守住一个稳定的货币,而这有赖于你那一份智慧与警醒。

So thank you, Uncle Sam. Someday your nieces and nephews at Berkshire hope to send you even larger payments than we did in 2024. Spend it wisely. Take care of the many who, for no fault of their own, get the short straws in life. They deserve better. And never forget that we need you to maintain a stable currency and that result requires both wisdom and vigilance on your part.

财产意外险

Property-Casualty Insurance

财产伤亡险仍是伯克希尔的核心业务。这个行业遵循一种在巨型企业中极其罕见的财务模式。通常,公司在售出产品或服务之前——或与之同步——就得先付出人工、原料、库存、厂房设备等成本,因此 CEO 在卖出之前就对成本心中有数。若售价低于成本,管理者很快就会察觉出问题,毕竟现金哗哗外流是很难视而不见的。8

P/C insurance continues to be Berkshire’s core business. The industry follows a financial model that is rare – very rare – among giant businesses. Customarily, companies incur costs for labor, materials, inventories, plant and equipment, etc. before – or concurrently with – the sale of their products or services. Consequently, their CEOs have a good fix on knowing the cost of their product before they sell it. If the selling price is less than its cost, managers soon learn they have a problem. Hemorrhaging cash is hard to ignore. 8

而承保财产伤亡险时,我们先收到保费,很久以后才知道这份产品到底让我们花了多少钱——那个揭晓真相的时刻,有时会被推迟 30 年甚至更久。(时至今日,我们仍在为 50 多年前的石棉暴露理赔支付巨额款项。)这种经营方式有个好处:财产伤亡险公司在掏出大部分费用之前,手里就先握有现金;但它也带着一重风险——公司可能早已在亏钱,有时甚至是巨亏,而 CEO 和董事却浑然不觉。有些险种能把这种错配压到最小,比如农作物险或冰雹险,损失很快就能上报、评估、赔付。可另一些险种,却能让公司在走向破产的同时,还让高管和股东乐在其中。想想医疗事故险或产品责任险这类保障吧。在所谓“长尾”险种里,一家财产伤亡险公司可能连年——甚至连续几十年——向股东和监管机构报出庞大却虚幻的利润。若 CEO 是个乐天派或是个骗子,这样的账目就格外危险。这些绝非危言耸听:历史上,这两类人都不在少数。近几十年,这种“先收钱、后赔付”的模式,让伯克希尔得以动用大笔资金(即“浮存金”)去投资,同时通常还能挣得我们认为不多的一点承保利润。我们会为“意外”预留估算,迄今为止,这些估算都还够用。业务中蒙受的赔付虽然巨大且不断攀升,我们却不会因此却步。(写下这段话时,请想想那些山火。)我们的本分,是把这些因素计入定价,并在意外真的降临时,不动声色地咽下损失。我们的本分,也包括去抗争那些“离谱”的判决、无理的缠讼和赤裸裸的欺诈。在阿吉特的掌舵下,我们的保险业务已从一家默默无闻、偏居奥马哈的公司,成长为享誉全球的行业翘楚——既以敢于承担风险著称,又以直布罗陀般的财务实力闻名。此外,相对于我们所领取的任何薪酬,格雷格、各位董事和我本人在伯克希尔的投入都极为庞大。我们不用期权,也不用任何单向获利的薪酬形式;你们亏钱,我们也一起亏。这种安排能促人审慎,却不能担保远见。

When writing P/C insurance, we receive payment upfront and much later learn what our product has cost us – sometimes a moment of truth that is delayed as much as 30 or more years. (We are still making substantial payments on asbestos exposures that occurred 50 or more years ago.) This mode of operations has the desirable effect of giving P/C insurers cash before they incur most expenses but carries with it the risk that the company can be losing money – sometimes mountains of money – before the CEO and directors realize what is happening. Certain lines of insurance minimize this mismatch, such as crop insurance or hail damage in which losses are quickly reported, evaluated and paid. Other lines, however, can lead to executive and shareholder bliss as the company is going broke. Think coverages such as medical malpractice or product liability. In “long-tail” lines, a P/C insurer may report large but fictitious profits to its owners and regulators for many years – even decades. The accounting can be particularly dangerous if the CEO is an optimist or a crook. These possibilities are not fanciful: History reveals a large number of each species. In recent decades, this “money-up-front, loss-payments-later” model has allowed Berkshire to invest large sums (“float”) while generally delivering what we believe to be a small underwriting profit. We make estimates for “surprises” and, so far, these estimates have been sufficient. We are not deterred by the dramatic and growing loss payments sustained by our activities. (As I write this, think wildfires.) It’s our job to price to absorb these and unemotionally take our lumps when surprises develop. It’s also our job to contest “runaway” verdicts, spurious litigation and outright fraudulent behavior. Under Ajit, our insurance operation has blossomed from an obscure Omaha-based company into a world leader, renowned for both its taste for risk and its Gibraltar-like financial strength. Moreover, Greg, our directors and I all have a very large investment in Berkshire in relation to any compensation we receive. We do not use options or other one-sided forms of compensation; if you lose money, so do we. This approach encourages caution but does not ensure foresight.

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财产伤亡险的增长,取决于经济风险的增长。没有风险,就不需要保险。回想仅仅 135 年前,世上还没有汽车、卡车和飞机。如今单是美国就有 3 亿辆机动车,这支庞大的车队每天都在造成巨大的损失。飓风、龙卷风和山火所致的财产损失规模惊人、还在增长,其发生规律与最终代价也越来越难以捉摸。

P/C insurance growth is dependent on increased economic risk. No risk – no need for insurance. Think back only 135 years when the world had no autos, trucks or airplanes. Now there are 300 million vehicles in the U.S. alone, a massive fleet causing huge damage daily. Property damage arising from hurricanes, tornadoes and wildfires is massive, growing and increasingly unpredictable in their patterns and eventual costs.

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给这类保障签发十年期保单是愚蠢的——干脆说是发疯——但我们相信,逐年承接这类风险通常尚在可控之内。一旦我们改了主意,就会改我们提供的合同。在我这辈子里,车险公司大体已放弃一年期保单,转向半年期。这一改动虽减少了浮存金,却让承保更为精明。

It would be foolish – make that madness – to write ten-year policies for these coverages, but we believe one-year assumption of such risks is generally manageable. If we change our minds, we will change the contracts we offer. During my lifetime, auto insurers have generally abandoned one-year policies and switched to the six-month variety. This change reduced float but allowed more intelligent underwriting.

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没有哪家私营保险公司愿意也有能力承接伯克希尔所能提供的那般巨量风险。有时候,这一优势举足轻重。但价格不划算时,我们也必须收手。我们绝不能为了留在牌桌上,就去承保定价不足的保单——那无异于企业自杀。给财产伤亡险合理定价,一半是艺术,一半是科学,无论如何都不是乐天派该干的活。当年招揽阿吉特的伯克希尔高管迈克·戈德堡有句话说得最到位:“我们希望核保员每天上班时都提着心,但别提到腿软。”

No private insurer has the willingness to take on the amount of risk that Berkshire can provide. At times, this advantage can be important. But we also need to shrink when prices are inadequate. We must never write inadequately-priced policies in order to stay in the game. That policy is corporate suicide. Properly pricing P/C insurance is part art, part science and is definitely not a business for optimists. Mike Goldberg, the Berkshire executive who recruited Ajit, said it best: “We want our underwriters to daily come to work nervous, but not paralyzed.”

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通盘掂量下来,我们喜欢财产伤亡险这门生意。极端损失来临,伯克希尔在财力和心态上都能眼都不眨地扛住。我们也不必仰仗再保险公司,这给了我们一项实实在在、经久不衰的成本优势。最后,我们还有一批出色的经理人(没有一个乐天派),并且格外擅长把财产伤亡险带来的巨额资金拿去投资。过去二十年,我们的保险业务从承保端赚得了 320 亿美元的税后利润,相当于每 1 美元保费在缴税后约有 3.3 美分的进项。与此同时,我们的浮存金已从 460 亿美元增长到 1,710 亿美元。这笔浮存金往后大概还会缓慢增长,而只要承保精明(再加上几分运气),它很有希望做到零成本。

All things considered, we like the P/C insurance business. Berkshire can financially and psychologically handle extreme losses without blinking. We are also not dependent on reinsurers and that gives us a material and enduring cost advantage. Finally, we have outstanding managers (no optimists) and are particularly well-situated to utilize the substantial sums P/C insurance delivers for investment. Over the past two decades, our insurance business has generated $32 billion of after-tax profits from underwriting, about 3.3 cents per dollar of sales after income tax. Meanwhile, our float has grown from $46 billion to $171 billion. The float is likely to grow a bit over time and, with intelligent underwriting (and some luck), has a reasonable prospect of being costless.

伯克希尔增持日本投资

Berkshire Increases its Japanese Investments

在我们以美国为本的布局中,有一个虽小却重要的例外,那就是我们不断加码的日本投资。伯克希尔开始买入五家日本公司的股票已近六年,这几家公司的经营方式与伯克希尔本身颇有几分相似,且都相当成功。这五家公司(按字母顺序)分别是:伊藤忠商事、丸红、三菱、三井和住友。这几家大型企业各自又持有一大批业务的权益,其中许多扎根日本,也有不少遍布世界各地。

A small but important exception to our U.S.-based focus is our growing investment in Japan. It’s been almost six years since Berkshire began purchasing shares in five Japanese companies that very successfully operate in a manner somewhat similar to Berkshire itself. The five are (alphabetically) ITOCHU, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui and Sumitomo. Each of these large enterprises, in turn, owns interests in a vast array of businesses, many based in Japan but others that operate throughout the world.

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伯克希尔于 2019 年 7 月首次买入这五家公司。当时我们只是翻了翻它们的财务报表,就被其股价之低惊到了。岁月流转,我们对这些公司的钦佩之情有增无减。格雷格已多次与它们会面,我也定期跟踪其进展。它们的资本配置、管理层,以及对待投资者的态度,我们俩都很欣赏。这五家公司都会在适宜时提高股息,在合算时回购股份,而它们高管在薪酬安排上的进取程度,也远不及美国同行。我们对这五家的持股立足于极长远的将来,并承诺支持它们的董事会。一开始,我们也约定将伯克希尔在每家公司的持股保持在 10% 以下。但当我们逼近这条上限时,五家公司同意适度松动这个天花板。假以时日,你们很可能会看到伯克希尔对这五家的持股都有所增加。截至年底,伯克希尔的累计成本(以美元计)为 138 亿美元,持股市值合计 235 亿美元。与此同时,伯克希尔一直在增加日元计价的借款——虽非依据任何公式,但持续如此。这些借款全是固定利率,没有一笔是浮动利率。格雷格和我对未来汇率并无判断,因而力求让头寸接近货币中性。不过按 GAAP 规则,我们须定期在损益中确认所借日元的估算盈亏;截至年底,我们已计入 23 亿美元的税后收益(源于美元走强),其中 8.5 亿美元发生在 2024 年。我预计格雷格和他日后的继任者会把这些日本头寸持有几十年,伯克希尔今后也会找到与这五家公司富有成效地合作的其他方式。我们同样看好当下日元平衡策略这笔账。写下这段话时,预计 2025 年这几项日本投资带来的年度股息收入合计约 8.12 亿美元,而日元计价债务的利息成本约为 1.35 亿美元。

Berkshire made its first purchases involving the five in July 2019. We simply looked at their financial records and were amazed at the low prices of their stocks. As the years have passed, our admiration for these companies has consistently grown. Greg has met many times with them, and I regularly follow their progress. Both of us like their capital deployment, their managements and their attitude in respect to their investors. Each of the five companies increase dividends when appropriate, they repurchase their shares when it is sensible to do so, and their top managers are far less aggressive in their compensation programs than their U.S. counterparts. Our holdings of the five are for the very long term, and we are committed to supporting their boards of directors. From the start, we also agreed to keep Berkshire’s holdings below 10% of each company’s shares. But, as we approached this limit, the five companies agreed to moderately relax the ceiling. Over time, you will likely see Berkshire’s ownership of all five increase somewhat. At yearend, Berkshire’s aggregate cost (in dollars) was $13.8 billion and the market value of our holdings totaled $23.5 billion. Meanwhile, Berkshire has consistently – but not pursuant to any formula – increased its yen-denominated borrowings. All are at fixed rates, no “floaters.” Greg and I have no view on future foreign exchange rates and therefore seek a position approximating currency-neutrality. We are required, however, under GAAP rules to regularly recognize in our earnings a calculation of any gains or losses in the yen we have borrowed and, at yearend, had included $2.3 billion of after-tax gains due to dollar strength of which $850 million occurred in 2024. I expect that Greg and his eventual successors will be holding this Japanese position for many decades and that Berkshire will find other ways to work productively with the five companies in the future. We like the current math of our yen-balanced strategy as well. As I write this, the annual dividend income expected from the Japanese investments in 2025 will total about $812 million and the interest cost of our yen-denominated debt will be about $135 million.

奥马哈年度股东大会

The Annual Gathering in Omaha

希望你们能于 5 月 3 日来奥马哈,与我们相聚。今年的日程稍有调整,但主体不变。我们的目标是:让你们的诸多疑问得到解答,与老友重逢,并带着对奥马哈的好印象离开。这座城市期待你们的到来。

I hope you will join us in Omaha on May 3rd. We are following a somewhat changed schedule this year, but the basics remain the same. Our goal is that you get many of your questions answered, that you connect with friends, and that you leave with a good impression of Omaha. The city looks forward to your visits.

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我们仍会有大致相同的一批志愿者,为你们奉上五花八门的伯克希尔商品,既掏空你们的钱包,也点亮你们的一天。一如往常,周五中午 12 点至下午 5 点我们照常开门,可爱的 Squishmallows 毛绒玩具、Fruit of the Loom 的内衣、布鲁克斯跑鞋以及一大堆其他好物,都在等着诱惑你们。同样,我们只售卖一本书。去年我们主推《穷查理宝典》,结果销售一空——周六收工前,5,000 册就抢购殆尽。今年我们将推出《伯克希尔·哈撒韦 60 年》。2015 年,我请负责操办股东大会诸多事务的凯莉·索瓦(Carrie Sova)试着编一本轻松的伯克希尔小史。我给了她充分的发挥空间,她很快便交出一本书,其巧思、内容与设计都令我惊叹。后来凯莉离开伯克希尔去组建家庭,如今已是三个孩子的母亲。但每年夏天,伯克希尔的同仁们都会聚在一起,看奥马哈风暴追逐者队与一支三 A 球队打棒球。我会邀请几位老同事同来,凯莉通常也带着家人一起。今年这场活动上,我厚着脸皮问她,愿不愿意做一期 60 周年纪念版,收录查理那些鲜少公开的照片、语录和故事。哪怕手上还有三个年幼的孩子要照看,凯莉还是当即答应了。于是,我们将有 5,000 册这本新书上架,周五下午以及周六上午 7 点至下午 4 点开售。凯莉分文不取,拒绝为这本新“查理”版所付出的大量心血收取任何报酬。我提议由她和我共同签名 20 册,赠予每一位向斯蒂芬中心捐款 5,000 美元的股东;该中心为南奥马哈无家可归的成人和儿童提供帮助。从我的老友、凯莉的外祖父老比尔·凯泽(Bill Kizer, Sr.)那一辈起,凯泽一家几十年来一直在扶助这家值得敬重的机构。这 20 本签名书所筹得的款项,无论多少,我都将等额配捐。

We will have much the same group of volunteers to offer you a wide variety of Berkshire products that will lighten your wallet and brighten your day. As usual, we will be open on Friday from noon until 5 p.m. with lovable Squishmallows, underwear from Fruit of the Loom, Brooks running shoes and a host of other items to tempt you. Again, we will have only one book for sale. Last year we featured Poor Charlie’s Almanack and sold out – 5,000 copies disappeared before the close of business on Saturday. This year we will offer 60 Years of Berkshire Hathaway. In 2015, I asked Carrie Sova, who among her many duties managed much of the activity at the annual meeting, to try her hand at putting together a light-hearted history of Berkshire. I gave her full reign to use her imagination, and she quickly produced a book that blew me away with its ingenuity, contents and design. Subsequently, Carrie left Berkshire to raise a family and now has three children. But each summer, the Berkshire office force gets together to watch the Omaha Storm Chasers play baseball against a Triple A opponent. I ask a few alums to join us, and Carrie usually comes with her family. At this year’s event, I brazenly asked her if she would do a 60th Anniversary issue, featuring Charlie’s photos, quotes and stories that have seldom been made public. Even with three young children to manage, Carrie immediately said “yes.” Consequently, we will have 5,000 copies of the new book available for sale on Friday afternoon and from 7 a.m. to 4 p.m. on Saturday. Carrie refused any payment for her extensive work on the new “Charlie” edition. I suggested she and I co-sign 20 copies to be given to any shareholder contributing $5,000 to the Stephen Center that serves homeless adults and children in South Omaha. The Kizer family, beginning with Bill Kizer, Sr., my long-time friend and Carrie’s grandfather, have for decades been assisting this worthy institution. Whatever is raised through the sale of the 20 autographed books, I will match.

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贝基·奎克(Becky Quick)将为我们周六那场稍作调整的聚会担任报道。贝基对伯克希尔知根知底,总能安排与经理人、投资者、股东以及偶尔到场的名人之间的精彩对谈。她和她的 CNBC 团队做得非常出色,既向全球转播我们的会议,也归档了大量伯克希尔相关资料。这个归档的点子,功劳要记在我们的董事史蒂夫·伯克(Steve Burke)头上。今年我们不放电影,而是提早一点,在早上 8 点开场。我会简单讲几句开场白,之后立即进入问答环节,由贝基和现场观众轮流提问。

Becky Quick will cover our somewhat re-engineered gathering on Saturday. Becky knows Berkshire like a book and always arranges interesting interviews with managers, investors, shareholders and an occasional celebrity. She and her CNBC crew do a great job of both transmitting our meetings worldwide and archiving much Berkshire-related material. Give our director, Steve Burke, credit for the archive idea. We will not have a movie this year but rather will convene a bit earlier at 8 a.m. I will make a few introductory remarks, and we will promptly get to the Q&A, alternating questions between Becky and the audience.

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格雷格和阿吉特将和我一同回答问题,上午 10:30 我们会休息半小时。11:00 重新开场时,台上就只有格雷格和我了。今年我们在下午 1:00 结束,但展区购物会一直开放到下午 4:00。周末活动的详细信息请见第 16 页。请特别留意周日早上那场向来备受欢迎的布鲁克斯跑步活动。(那时候我还在睡觉。)

Greg and Ajit will join me in answering questions and we will take a half-hour break at 10:30 a.m. When we reconvene at 11:00 a.m., only Greg will join me on stage. This year we will disband at 1:00 p.m. but stay open for shopping in the exhibit area until 4:00 p.m. You can find the full details regarding weekend activities on page 16. Note particularly the always-popular Brooks run on Sunday morning. (I will be sleeping.)

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我那位聪慧又漂亮的妹妹伯蒂,我去年曾写到过她,今年她将携两个同样漂亮的女儿一同参会。各位看官一致认为,造就如此惊艳容貌的基因,只沿着我们家的女性一脉流传。(呜呼。)伯蒂如今 91 岁了,我们每个周日都用老式电话聊天。我们畅谈暮年之乐,也讨论诸如各自手杖的优缺点这类激动人心的话题。于我而言,手杖的功用仅限于防止我摔个嘴啃泥。但伯蒂总胜我一筹,她声称自己还另有一桩好处:她告诉我,女人一旦拄上手杖,男人就不再“搭讪”她了。伯蒂的解释是,男人的自尊心就是这般,拄着手杖的小老太太根本算不上合适的目标。眼下,我尚无数据来反驳她的这一论断。但我心存怀疑。开会时我在台上看不太真切,如果在座各位能帮我留意一下伯蒂,我将不胜感激。看看她那手杖是否真的在发挥作用。我敢打赌,她身边定会围满男士。对上了些年纪的人来说,那场面会让人想起《乱世佳人》中斯嘉丽·奥哈拉和她那群男性仰慕者的画面。

My wise and good-looking sister, Bertie, of whom I wrote last year, will be attending the meeting along with two of her daughters, both good-looking as well. Observers all agree that the genes producing this dazzling result flow down only the female side of the family. (Sob.) Bertie is now 91 and we talk regularly on Sundays using old-fashion telephones for communications. We cover the joys of old age and discuss such exciting topics as the relative merits of our canes. In my case, the utility is limited to the avoidance of falling flat on my face. But Bertie regularly one-ups me by asserting that she enjoys an additional benefit: When a woman uses a cane, she tells me, men quit “hitting” on her. Bertie’s explanation is that the male ego is such that little old ladies with canes simply aren’t an appropriate target. Presently, I have no data to counter her assertion. But I have suspicions. At the meeting I can’t see much from the stage, and I would appreciate it if attendees would keep an eye on Bertie. Let me know if the cane is really doing its job. My bet is that she will be surrounded by males. For those of a certain age, the scene will bring back memories of Scarlett O’Hara and her horde of male admirers in Gone with the Wind.

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伯克希尔的各位董事和我本人,都极其高兴你们能来奥马哈。我敢说,你们会玩得开心,还很可能会交到些新朋友。

The Berkshire directors and I immensely enjoy having you come to Omaha, and I predict that you will have a good time and likely make some new friends.

2025 年 2 月 22 日

February 22, 2025

沃伦·E·巴菲特 董事会主席

Warren E. Buffett Chairman of the Board

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伯克希尔业绩对标普 500 指数比较 每股市值年度百分比变化 含股息的标普 500 指数 伯克希尔

Berkshire’s Performance vs. the S&P 500 Annual Percentage Change in Per-Share in S&P 500 Market Value of with Dividends Berkshire Included

年度伯克希尔每股市场价值的年度百分比变化标普500指数含股息变动
196549.5%10.0%
1966(3.4)(11.7)
196713.330.9
196877.811.0
196919.4(8.4)
1970(4.6)3.9
197180.514.6
19728.118.9
1973(2.5)(14.8)
1974(48.7)(26.4)
19752.537.2
1976129.323.6
197746.8(7.4)
197814.56.4
1979102.518.2
198032.832.3
198131.8(5.0)
198238.421.4
198369.022.4
1984(2.7)6.1
198593.731.6
198614.218.6
19874.65.1
198859.316.6
198984.631.7
1990(23.1)(3.1)
199135.630.5
199229.87.6
199338.910.1
199425.01.3
YearAnnual Percentage Change in Per-Share Market Value of Berkshirein S&P 500 with Dividends Included
196549.5%10.0%
1966(3.4)(11.7)
196713.330.9
196877.811.0
196919.4(8.4)
1970(4.6)3.9
197180.514.6
19728.118.9
1973(2.5)(14.8)
1974(48.7)(26.4)
19752.537.2
1976129.323.6
197746.8(7.4)
197814.56.4
1979102.518.2
198032.832.3
198131.8(5.0)
198238.421.4
198369.022.4
1984(2.7)6.1
198593.731.6
198614.218.6
19874.65.1
198859.316.6
198984.631.7
1990(23.1)(3.1)
199135.630.5
199229.87.6
199338.910.1
199425.01.3

注:数据按日历年统计,以下除外:1965 年和 1966 年,截至 9 月 30 日;1967 年,截至 12 月 31 日的 15 个月。

Note: Data are for calendar years with these exceptions: 1965 and 1966, year ended 9/30; 1967, 15 months ended 12/31.

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伯克希尔业绩对标普 500 指数比较 每股市值年度百分比变化 含股息的标普 500 指数 伯克希尔

Berkshire’s Performance vs. the S&P 500 Annual Percentage Change in Per-Share in S&P 500 Market Value of with Dividends Berkshire Included

年度伯克希尔每股市场价值的年度百分比变化标普500指数含股息变动
199557.4%37.6%
19966.223.0
199734.933.4
199852.228.6
1999(19.9)21.0
200026.6(9.1)
20016.5(11.9)
2002(3.8)(22.1)
200315.828.7
20044.310.9
20050.84.9
200624.115.8
200728.75.5
2008(31.8)(37.0)
20092.726.5
201021.415.1
2011(4.7)2.1
201216.816.0
201332.732.4
201427.013.7
2015(12.5)1.4
201623.412.0
201721.921.8
20182.8(4.4)
201911.031.5
20202.418.4
202129.628.7
20224.0(18.1)
202315.826.3
202425.525.0
复合年化收益率 – 1965-202419.9%10.4%
整体收益——1964-20245,502,284%39,054%
YearAnnual Percentage Change in Per-Share Market Value of Berkshirein S&P 500 with Dividends Included
199557.4%37.6%
19966.223.0
199734.933.4
199852.228.6
1999(19.9)21.0
200026.6(9.1)
20016.5(11.9)
2002(3.8)(22.1)
200315.828.7
20044.310.9
20050.84.9
200624.115.8
200728.75.5
2008(31.8)(37.0)
20092.726.5
201021.415.1
2011(4.7)2.1
201216.816.0
201332.732.4
201427.013.7
2015(12.5)1.4
201623.412.0
201721.921.8
20182.8(4.4)
201911.031.5
20202.418.4
202129.628.7
20224.0(18.1)
202315.826.3
202425.525.0
Compounded Annual Gain – 1965-202419.9%10.4%
Overall Gain – 1964-20245,502,284%39,054%
5,502,284%
39,054%
15
5,502,284%
39,054%
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