Wesco金融董事长信函,1985财年(查理·芒格)
WESCO FINANCIAL CORPORATION
致股东的信
致各位股东:
1985 日历年,西科金融合并“正常”经营利润(即:未计入所有非常经营利润和证券出售净收益前的利润)从上一年的 1006 万美元(每股 1.42 美元)降至 834.7 万美元(每股 1.17 美元)。合并净利润(即:计入非常经营利润和所有证券出售净收益后)则从上一年的 2365.6 万美元(每股 3.32 美元)增至 5154.1 万美元(每股 7.24 美元)。
1985 年的净利润大部分来自出售通用食品(General Foods)股票所产生的一笔高度非常规、且不太可能再重现的资本利得。下表给出了具体的明细。
西科有三家主要子公司:位于帕萨迪纳的互助储蓄(Mutual Savings)、总部设在芝加哥从事钢材仓储和特殊金属制品业务的精密钢业(Precision Steel)、以及总部设在奥马哈目前从事再保险业务的西科金融保险公司(Wesco-Financial Insurance Company)。近两个年度的合并净利润按以下项目分解(金额单位:千美元,每股金额除外):
| 年份 | 截至 1985 年 12 月 31 日 | 截至 1984 年 12 月 31 日 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 金额 | 西科每股 | 金额 | 西科每股 | |
| “正常”净经营利润(亏损): | ||||
| 互助储蓄 | $ 3,342 | $ .47 | $ 3,476 | $ .49 |
| 精密钢业各项业务 | 2,010 | .28 | 2,034 | .29 |
| 西科金融保险业务: | ||||
| 投资活动 | 1,225 | .17 | (359) | (.05) |
| 承保业务 | (1,584) | (.22) | — | — |
| 所有其他“正常”净经营利润 | 3,354 | .47 | 4,550 | .64 |
| 证券出售净收益* | 8,347 | 1.17 | 10,060 | 1.42 |
| GNMA 期货合约市场价值波动 | 41,523 | 5.83 | 13,138 | 1.84 |
| 西科合并净利润 | $51,541 | $7.24 | $23,656 | $3.32 |
- 扣除利息和公司支出后的净额;主要涉及处置通用食品股票所产生的收益。
这一补充的利润分解与遵循标准会计惯例的经审计财务报表略有不同。提供补充分解是因为我们认为它对股东有用。
WESCO FINANCIAL CORPORATION LETTER TO SHAREHOLDERS To Our Shareholders: Consolidater "normal" operating income (i.e., before all unusual operating income and all netigains from sales of securities) forthe calendar year 1985 decreased to $8,347,000 ($1.17 per share) from $10,060,000 ($1.42 per share) in the previous year. from sales of securities) increased to $51,541,000 ($7.24 per share) from $23,656,000 Consolidated net income (i.e., after unusual operating income and all net gains ($3.32 per share) in the previous year. General Foods stock caused most of the net income in 1985. The table below gives A highly unusual capitai gain, of a not-likely-to-recur type, from disposition of particulars. headquartered in Chicago and engaged in the steel varehousing and specialty metal Wesco has three major subsidiaries, Mutual Savings, in Pasarlena, Precision Steel, products businesses, and Wesco-Financial Insurance Company, headquartered in Omaha and currently engaged in the reinsurance husiness. Consolidated net income for the two years just ended breaks down as follows (in 000s except for per-share amounts)!!: Year Ended December 31 1985. Wesco Fer December 31, 1984 Fer Amount Share Amount Wesco Share "Mormal" net operating income (loss) of: Mutual Savings Precision Steel businesses $ 3,342 $ .47 2,010 .283 $ 3,476 $.49 Wesco financial insurance busines: 2,034 .29 Investment activity Underwriting (1,584) (.22) 1,225 - - -17 (359) (05) All other "normal" net operating incomen 3,354 -47 4,550 .64 Net gains on sales of ser urities'* Fluctuation in market valur of GNMA futures contrarl .. 8,347 i.17 1,671 .24 10,060 458 1.42 .06 41,523 5.3 13,138 1.84 Wesco consolidated net income........ $51,541 $23,656 $3.32 121 Alter decku ton et interest and colore coarde spo do o do o arne hero ades colice e benehns, primarey dessedd dos corsarte desorde andanteses and des decline ene teart e harpas atende cand no This supplementary breakdown of tarnings differs somewhat from that used in audited financial statements w hich follow standard accounting convention. The supple - mentary breakdown is furnished because it is considered useful to sherehoiders. 1
互助储蓄公司
1985 年,互助储蓄公司的“正常”净经营收入为 334.2 万美元,较上一年的 347.6 万美元下降了 4%。
互助储蓄公司 1984 年底和 1985 年底的独立资产负债表列于本年年报末尾。这些报表显示:(1) 储蓄账户总额从上一年的 2.28 亿美元增至 2.69 亿美元;(2) 股东权益与储蓄账户负债的比率极高(可能是美国任何一家成熟储蓄贷款协会中最高的);(3) 相当一部分储蓄账户负债由现金等价物和有价证券抵补;(4) 1985 年底贷款组合(大部分是房地产抵押贷款)约为 8,300 万美元,比 1984 年底的 9,500 万美元下降 12%;以及 (5) 证券收益及其他非常收益和波动带来的有利影响,使得尽管向母公司支付了 1,400 万美元的股息,但 1985 年的净资产仅下降了 400 万美元。
1985 年底的贷款组合,尽管几乎不存在违约损失风险,但其固定平均利率仅为 7.60%,可能是美国任何一家储蓄贷款协会中最低的,也远低于目前为维持储蓄账户而必须支付的平均利率。然而,随着贷款偿还速度加快以及 1985 年利率大幅下降,贷款组合中未实现的贬值大约被互助储蓄公司生息证券和优先股中未实现的升值所抵消。
正如附注财务报表脚注 13 所指出的,西科金融在互助储蓄公司权益的账面价值(1985 年 12 月 31 日为 5,760 万美元)高估了按其账面价值出售或清算后可实现的税后金额。如果互助储蓄公司的全部资产净额(即资产减去负债后)按照适用会计准则报告的 5,760 万美元账面价值出售——即便是按照完全清算计划——在缴纳高额所得税后,母公司实际收到的金额也将远低于 5,760 万美元,因为出于会计目的而指定的约 4,700 万美元股东权益,在大多数税务目的下被视为坏账准备金。
然而,互助储蓄公司隐藏着一项增值资产。其持有的止赎地产(主要是圣巴巴拉市占地约 22 英亩的大片海滨土地),在长期持有期间,其价值已远超过其资产负债表上 150 万美元的成本。在土地利用法规的管理过程中,这项合理且顾及社区感受的开发计划已被拖延了 10 多年。但我们乐观地认为,拖延即将结束,圣巴巴拉和蒙特西托社区将对该项很有可能推进的开发计划感到非常满意。该开发项目将包含 32 栋房屋,其间散布着大片开阔区域。互助储蓄公司计划将其打造成在各方面均属一流、且景观质量独一无二的开发项目。
综合所有优缺点,在笔者及其他人的管理下,互助储蓄公司在目前状况下,从股东角度来看并非令人垂涎的生意。互助储蓄公司的优点在于:(1) 资产质量高、资产负债表稳健;(2) 生息资产与负债的期限匹配良好,使得无论利率如何变动,破产风险都接近于零;(3) 以低于平均成本的高效单一大型办事处运营模式(区别于众多小型分支办事处),赢得了为账户持有人提供高质量服务的应有声誉。互助储蓄公司的缺点在于:(1) 基于增量效应来看,近年来所有储蓄账户的增长都成了亏本生意,因为产生的利息及其他成本超过了将资金投入短期生息资产所获得的收入;(2) 在 FSLIC 账户保险体系下,互助储蓄公司负担沉重,需要向该系统缴纳越来越高额的款项,以救助那些更冒险经营而资不抵债的储蓄贷款协会,尽管互助储蓄公司本身并未从中受益;(3) 总体盈利能力偏低,只有在证券收益及其他非常项目的帮助下,近年来才达到可接受的水平;(4) 若希望退出储蓄贷款业务,将难以避免承担巨额的所得税负担,且这种税负类型不适用于非储蓄贷款协会的公司;(5) 储蓄贷款行业的监管结构造成了竞争环境,使得即使审慎经营也难以赚取体面的利润;(6) 尽管多年尝试,管理层仍未找到解决上述任一缺点的可接受方案。
此外,将互助储蓄公司 1984 年后的财务业绩与加州其他许多更典型的储蓄贷款协会相比较,说得客气些,互助储蓄公司的表现相形见绌。随着利率下降,那些在前高利率时期财务杠杆更高、经营也不如互助储蓄公司谨慎的其他协会,其贷款和投资组合 (1) 现在的平均价值高于账面价值,且 (2) 在扣除当前利率下的运营费用和支付给账户持有人的利息后,现在能为股东权益的账面价值带来高回报。任何认为互助储蓄公司在预测利率变化并从中获利方面有专长的西科金融股东,看看 1985 年的记录就该绝望了。
尽管一些其他储蓄贷款协会在 1984 年后的表现远好于互助储蓄公司,并且现在处于更有利的位置,有望在 1986 年报告良好业绩,但我们计划继续仅以我们自己判断可接受的方式运营,并预期因此会出现业绩大幅波动,且有时回报率不足。然而,未来互助储蓄公司将发放和购买更多贷款。如今,互助储蓄公司的旧抵押贷款金额已下降,市场价值已上升(市场价值的上升既源于普遍利率的下降,也源于剩余贷款期限的缩短),新贷款将在认为明智的情况下增加,目标是将 60% 的资产配置于住房相关贷款。一段时间以来的首笔新直接贷款——一笔未来利率变化无上限、但贷方息差极低的可调利率抵押贷款——即将完成。我们对目前发放此类住房贷款的前景毫无兴奋之情,但希望借此重新启动直接抵押贷款业务。
对于未用于直接房地产贷款的资产,互助储蓄公司不仅继续向 FSLIC 支付远高于其使 FSLIC 承担风险的公允费用,还继续将大部分总资产用于向联邦住宅贷款银行发放短期贷款。这些做法有利于社会,但将继续降低利润。互助储蓄公司还继续支持联邦住宅贷款银行委员会努力改变储蓄贷款行业的现行规则,以增强 FSLIC 承保协会的整体稳健性。尽管由于联邦住宅贷款银行的明智努力,1985 年情况有所改善,但我们仍坚持认为,从国家角度看,现行规则是不健全的。规则允许了太大的自由度,让那些财务上的“冒险家”凭借 FSLIC(一个美国政府机构)的账户担保,通过提供任何足以吸引更多存款的利率来赌博式扩张。
我们认为,既然金钱是终极的同质化商品,现行规则便创造了一个高度竞争、商品化的行业。在这个行业中,(1) 经济法则很可能注定大多数谨慎的协会,如同其他同质化商品经销商一样,在长期内只能获得非常微薄的股东权益回报;然而,(2) 负责任的管理者通常仍可以在每个短期报告期内,通过采取增加风险的激进存款扩张、贷款和投资措施,来报告良好的财务结果;(3) 作为非所有者的管理者,其重要性和报酬主要与机构规模和近期报告的数字挂钩,他们通常承担极低的下行风险。由于管理者大多不是所有者,一种竞争性但又有存款保险的银行业版的“格雷欣法则”——“不良贷款驱逐良贷”——往往会发挥出格外强大的作用,因为管理者担心在允许竞争同行报告高利润并高价竞吸存款的活动中落后。我们认为没有理由假定,储蓄贷款行业中那些道德、聪明的管理者,能够免受类似效应的冲击——正是这种效应,曾导致美国所有主要银行的类似管理者,将大量资产配置于如今令人后悔的外国贷款,而不是选择独善其身。如果我们的诊断正确,美国储蓄贷款协会将面临一大堆严重的麻烦(也许还很遥远)。
尽管目前的规则和实践有其积极的一面,即满足了几乎 100% 的、当前利率下安全的住房贷款需求,但这一成就伴随着大量不健全的住房贷款和其他贷款,以及大量投资于“垃圾债券”及其他不适合高杠杆、联邦保险、吸收存款机构的不健全资产。现有的系统设计,如果在工程学课程中很可能会是不及格的设计,因为工程学的重点在于通过安全边际、稳健的信用扩张来维护一个关键系统的完整性,并强制银行和储蓄贷款协会采取更保守的行为。这些工程学规则满足于以下原则:(1) 只满足比方说 95% 的贷款请求,以及 (2) 强制银行和储蓄贷款协会采取更保守的行为。
我们认为,当前的设计在外科手术课程中很可能也是不及格的设计,而明智的外科实践是根据安全边际原则,在切除癌变细胞的同时也切除一些健康细胞。我们希望我们对当前储蓄贷款系统设计的判断是错误的,但我们担心普遍性的困境会日益加剧,并最终波及住房借款人和潜在住房借款人,我们认为他们的利益是重要的。任何此类困境之后,很可能都会伴随规则的改变。毫无疑问,我们关于当前储蓄贷款行业结构和实践可能只是暂时性的判断,已经阻碍了我们本可能发生的常规直接贷款。我们这种态度,无论对错,在储蓄贷款行业最近发生动荡变革的时期,一直是认为互助储蓄公司值得坚守,因为该行业未来的麻烦可能会创造出值得把握的机遇。
Mutual Savings Mutual Savings' "normal" net operating income of $3,3.42,000 in 1985 represented a decrease of 4% from the $3,476,000 figure the previous year. Separate balance sheets of Mutual Savings at yearend 1984 and 1985 are set forth at. the end of this annual report. They show (1) total savings accounts rising to $269 million from $228 million the year before, (2) a very high ratio of shareholders' equity to savings account liabilities (probably the highest for any mature U.S. savings and loan associa- tron), (3) a substantial portion of savings account liabilities offset by cash equivalents and marketable securities, (4) a loan portfolio (mostly real estate mortgages) of about $83 million at the end of 1985, down 12% from the $95 million at the end of 1984, and (5) favorable effects of securities gains and other unusual gains and fluctuations, which caused net worth to decline only $4 million in 1985 despite payment of a dividend of $14 million to the parent corporation. The loan portfolio at the end of 1985, although containing almost no risk of loss from defaults, bore a fixed average interest rate of only 7.60%, probably the lowest for ariy U.S. savings and loan association and far below the average interest rate which now must be paid to hold savings accounts. However, as the loan payoff pace intensified ard interest rates declined sharply in 1985, the unrealized depreciation in the loan portfolio became approximately offset by unrealized appreciation in Mutual Savings' interest- bearing; securities and preferred stocks. As pointed out in footnote 13 to the accompanying financial statements, the book value of Wesco's equity in Mutual Savings (557,6 million at December 31, 1985) over- states the amount realizable, after taxes, from sale or liquidation at book value. If all Mutual Savings' assets, net of liabilities, were to be sold, even pursuant to a plan of complete liquidation, for the $57.6 million in book value reported under applicable accounting convention, the parent corporation would receive much less than $57.6 million after substantial income laxation imposed because about $47 million of what is designated shareholders' equiry for accounting purposes is considered bad debt reserves for most tax purposes. on hand (mostly 22 largely oceanfront acres in Santa Barbara) has become worth over a There is, however, a buried plus value in Mutual Savings. The foreclosed property long holding period much more than its $1.5 million balance sheet carrying cost. Reasonable, community-sensitive development of this property has been delayed over 10 years in the rourse of administration of land-use laws. But we are optimistic that an end to ihe delay is near and that the Santa Barbara and Montecito communities will be very pleased with the development: ow likely to go forward. This development will contain 32 houses intersperser with large open areas. Mutual Savings plans to make the development first rate in every respect, and unique in the quality of its landscaping. Balancing all merits and demerits, Mutual Savings, as it has been managed under holders' point of view. Mutual Savings' good points are: (1) high asset quality and sound present conditions by the writer and others, is no jewel of a business rom the share- balance sheet; (2) a maturity match cfinterest-bearing assets and liabilities which makes risk of insolvency near zero, whatever happens to interest rates; and (3) a deserved to the inslitution in an efficient one-large office operation, as distinguished from a reputation for high quality service to account holders, achieved at below-average cost 2 many-small-branch-offices operation. Mutual Savings' bad points are: (1) all recent rowth in savings accounts, considered on an incremental effects basis, has been ios! business because interestand other costs incurred exceed income obtained by employ- ing proceeds in short-term interest-bearing assets; (2) a burdensome positien under the system to help bail out more venturesome savings and loan associations which become FSLIC account-insurance system causes payments of ever-higher umou ts into the insolvent, with the payments being required despite the fact that Mutual Savings reaching an acceptable level over recent years only with help trom securities gains anc other unusual items; (4) it would not be easy to leave the savings and loan business, should this course of action ever be desired, without a large income tax burden of a type structure of the savings and loan business creates a competitive situation in which it is not applied to corporations orher than savings and loan associations; (5) the regulatory hard to make respectable profitsthrough careful operations; and (6) management has •not yet found an acceptable remedy for any of the previously isted bad points, despite years of trying. Moreover, comparisons of post-1984 financial results for Mutual Savings with results for many other and more typical savings and loan association: in California leave Mutual Savings looking inferior, to put it mildly. As interest rates went down these other associations, which have greater financial leverage and operated less iearfully than Mutual Savings during former high-interest periods, came to have loan and investment portfolios which (1) now are worth more on average than book value and (2) now produce a high return on book value of shareholders' equity, after deduction of operating expenses and interest to account holders at presen: rates Any Wesco share- holder who thinks Mutual Savings has any expertise in predicting and profiting from interest rate changes can nok at the 1985 record and despair. Despite the fact that some othersav ngs and loan associations did much better after 1984 than Mutual Savings, and are now much better poised to report good figures for 1986, we plan to continue operating only in ways acceptable in our own judgment, anticipating as a consequence widely fluctuating and sometimes inadequate returns. In the future, however, Mutual Savings will make and purchase more loans. Now that Mutual Savings' old mortgage loans have declined in amount and increased in market value (the market value increase being caused both by a decline in generally prevailing interest rates and by a shortening of remaining loan life), new loans will be added as seems wise, with a target that 60% of assets be in housing-related loans. The first new direct loan in some time, an adjustable rate mortgage with no cap on future interest rate changes but with an extremely luw "spread" for the lender, will shortly be closed. We are not at all excited by our prospects as we now make housing loans of this type, but ive wish to get some renewal of direct mortgag: lending under way. With assets not employed in direct real-estate lending, Mutual Savings continues not only to make payments to FSLIC far in excess of fair charges for risks imposed on FSLIC but also to employ a large part of total assets in short-term loans to the Federal Home Loan Bank. These practices are pro-social but will continue to reduce profits. Mutual Savings also continues to support the Federal Home Loan Bank Board in its efforts to change the presentrules ofthe savings and loan business to augment average 3 despite some improvement in 1985 through wise efforts of the Federal Home Loan Bank soundness of FSLIC-insured associations. We retain our opinion that the present rules, financial "swingers" to grow as they gamble, through u e of account guarantees from boaro, are unsound, from the country's point of view. loo much latitude is allowec rates to attract more accounts. FSLIC, an agency of the U.S. Government, while they offer whatever it takes in interest With money being the ultimate fungible co. modity, it seems to us that the rules create a super-competitive, commodity-type business, in which (1) economic law realize very modest returns on shareholders' equity over extended time periods, yet (2) probably destines most careful associations, like other fungible-commodity dealers, to good financial results can nonetheless usually be reported in each near-term period by sures which increase risk, while: (3) the importance and rewards of managers, who managers-in-charge through aggressive deposit-expanding, lending and investing mea- usually have little downside risk as owners, are tied mostly to institutional size and recently reported numbers. With managers mostly being non-owners, a sort of tends to work with extra force as managers fear being left out of whatever activity allows Gresham's law of competitive-yet-deposit-insured banking, "bad loans drive out good," reason for assuming that ethical, intelligent managers in the savings and loan industry are competing managers to report high profits while bidding high for deposits. We see no immune from effects similar to those which caused similar managers of all major U.S. stand apart from the crowd. If our diagnosis is correct, a lot of serious trouble lies ahead banks to place significant portions of assets in now-regretted foreign loans, rather than (perhaps far ahead) for U.S. savings and loan associations. almost 100% of demand for those housing loans which are sound at the prevailing While present rules and practices have a positive side in causing satisfaction of interest rate, this accoinplishment is accompanied by much unsound housing and other lending and by much unsound investment in "junk bonds" anci other assets unsuitable for highly leveraged, federally insured, deposit-taking institutions. The system design in place would probably be a flunking design in an engineering course, where the empha. sis would be on preserving the integrity of an essential system by a margin of safety, by sound credit extension and (2; forced more conservative conduct on banks and savings being content with rules which (1) causer satisfaction of, say, only 95% of requests for and loan associations. course, where the wise practice is to remove sonie healthy cells along with cancerous ihe present desięn, we think, would probablyalso be aflunking design in a surgery cells, based on margin-ot-satety principles, yve hope we are wrong about the present ultimately reaching housing borrowers and would-be housing borrowers, whose inter- design of the savings and loan system, but we fear increased, widespread adversity. ests we consider important. Any such adversity would probably be followed by changes savings and loan industry structure and practices has helped deterus from directlonding in the rules. No doubt, our judgment as to the probable temporary nature of present of a conventional sort which otherwise would have occurred. Our attitude, right or wrong, during recent tumultuous changes in the savings and loan industry, has been Mutual Savings berause future truble in the savings and loan business may create opportunities worth soving
精密钢铁公司
西科旗下的精密钢铁子公司位于伊利诺伊州富兰克林公园的芝加哥郊区,于 1979 年 2 月 28 日以约 1500 万美元收购。收购价格大致相当于其账面价值,该公司采用保守的后进先出法核算存货,并持有大量现金余额。更重要的是,这家公司从一个不起眼的起点发展起来,靠的是其才华横溢的创始人及其继任者长期灌输的稳健、以客户为导向的经营价值观。精密钢铁拥有一家根基牢固的钢铁服务配送中心业务,以及一家从事工具车间用五金和其他特种金属产品制造与分销的子公司。
精密钢铁的业务在 1985 年为“正常”营业净利润贡献了 201 万美元,尽管销售额下降了 7% 至 5112.4 万美元,仍实现了这一盈利水平。与 1984 年的 203.4 万美元相比,下降了 1%。这种小幅下降,考虑到收购这些业务给西科的合并报表带来的财务杠杆,在戴维·希尔斯特罗姆的精湛领导下,精密钢铁的现状相当令人满意。
在西科收购精密钢铁后不久,公司就批准了一项大规模的钢铁仓储设施扩建工程,包括在北卡罗来纳州夏洛特建造一座新大楼。新大楼以及整个北卡罗来纳州的运营现在都非常成功,为 1985 年的销售额贡献了 914 万美元,且利润率高于长期运营的芝加哥总部设施。
尽管名称平淡无奇,但精密钢铁的业务在质量等级上已从纯粹的商品型业务向前迈进了一步。精密钢铁的许多客户需要及时获得特定等级的高质量冷轧带钢、合理价格、按需裁剪的技术专长,以及在供应短缺时能被优先顾及,他们正确地认为,在精密钢铁的服务区域内,没有完全可比拟的替代选择。事实上,许多远离芝加哥和夏洛特(例如洛杉矶)的客户也会寻求精密钢铁的服务。
西科仍然对利用可用流动资产扩展精密钢铁的业务持开放态度。
西科-金融保险公司
1985 年,西科集团增加了一项新业务,是与西科 80% 的股东及最终母公司伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司共同成立的合资企业。
在所有西科董事(包括西科重要股东彼得斯和卡斯珀家族成员,没有他们的批准,此项行动本不会进行)的热烈赞同下,西科将 4500 万美元的现金等价物注入一家新成立、全资拥有的内布拉斯加州注册保险公司:西科-金融保险公司(以下简称“西科-金融保险”)。
随后,这家新子公司西科-金融保险,通过另一家伯克希尔·哈撒韦保险子公司的中介安排,在未使用任何强制再保险的情况下,全额转再保了长期存在的 Fireman’s Fund 保险公司在 1985 年 9 月 1 日起的四年期间所赚取的几乎所有保险业务的风险和损益。该协议使西科-金融保险承担了 Fireman’s Fund 定价、成本和损失的收益与负担,并将其置于几乎完全相同的位置,就好像西科-金融保险(而非 Fireman’s Fund)直接承保了该业务的 2% 份额。差异只会源自西科-金融保险投资由“浮存金”产生的资金,而非 Fireman’s Fund 进行投资。西科-金融保险在 1986 年预计分享的已赚保费将超过 6000 万美元。
西科-金融保险自 1985 年 9 月 1 日至 1985 年 12 月 31 日期间的单独财务报表收录在本年报第 29 页和第 30 页,显示西科-金融保险在 1985 年的净资产略有减少,从 4500 万美元降至 4467.6 万美元。
我们认为这四个月的结果对未来没有显著的预测价值。此外,这些财务报表的准确性存疑,且可能错在任何方向。即使是质量最好的意外险公司,在记账时也必须从已赚保费中估算并扣除所有未来的成本和损失。这项工作固有的不确定性,使得财务报表比非保险公司的账目更像仅仅是“最佳诚实猜测”。而意外险业务中的再保险部分,由于在损失报告链中包含一个或多个额外环节,通常比非再保险部分带来更多会计上的不确定性。最后,西科-金融保险的初期财务报表存在一个劣势:覆盖期间较短,使得任何利用报告的历史成本-价格比来指示未来可能的成本-价格比的做法都格外可疑,因为作为预测基础的样本量太小。
预测西科-金融保险的未来结果完全为时过早,但西科希望:(1)在 Fireman’s Fund 再保险合同的四年期内,从其投资中获得合理回报,以及(2)未来可能与其他保险公司签订再保险合同。
西科高度评价约翰·伯恩,他是 Fireman’s Fund 新任首席执行官,也是一位大股东和股票期权持有人。伯恩先生在他之前的 GEICO 公司 CEO 职位上是一位杰出的保险公司管理者,GEICO 在 1985 年创造了非凡的承保记录,其盈利能力在他的任期内大幅提升。Fireman’s Fund 的保险业务本质上是周期性更强且优势较小的,因为它依赖于不同的“直接销售”分销系统。而 GEICO 的保险业务则拥有更低的固定分销成本。因此,Fireman’s Fund 的业务几乎肯定比 GEICO 的情况更难永久性改善。不过,伯恩先生和 Fireman’s Fund 的其他高管非常清楚这一切,并且由于改善的空间不如 GEICO 先前那样巨大,进展可能较慢。但 Fireman’s Fund 和西科-金融保险都有可能从与 Fireman’s Fund 的再保险合同中获益。行业整体条件以及管理层的卓越表现,为西科-金融保险提供了成功的机会。目前整个意外险行业正在实施的大幅保费上涨,可能为西科-金融保险带来一些受欢迎的顺风。
我们对我们与 Fireman’s Fund 的关系感到满意。该公司历史悠久、业绩卓著,可追溯到旧金山大地震和大火之后的卓越表现,并且它与历史更悠久、美国首屈一指的公司之一美国运通公司相关联。
然而,西科对 Fireman’s Fund 质量、这份再保险合同质量以及可能的短期行业周期性改善的乐观情绪,受到了对再保险业务更大、更长远看法的制约。该业务存在一个缺陷:它对新进入者来说过于吸引人,以至于对其自身不利,因此它总是或多或少地成为诸如收集和处理死马这样的古老业务的反面,后者往往参与者寥寥且获利丰厚。麻烦、亏损和破产会迅速到来,因为再保险业务看似诱人的方面,包括其诱人的先收款后付款特点,吸引着新进入者并鼓励现有参与者扩大规模。该业务在近年曾是一片灾难区,受到了原本在稳定世界里就已过低的定价、远超保单签发时设想范畴的通货膨胀、趋于扩大保险责任范围的新司法观念,以及商业行为并非微不足道的退化等因素的不利影响。
毫无疑问,近期商业行为的退化(在再保险业务的买卖双方都尤为明显)因普遍性的困境而加速,再次证明了《穷理查年鉴》中的智慧:“空口袋难以直立。”
西科的母公司伯克希尔·哈撒韦旗下的保险公司,长期活跃于再保险领域,在近期行业普遍困难的时期,确实保持了适当的商业行为,但再保险的财务结果却很糟糕。因此,西科的股东不仅被带进了一个格外危险的地方,而且是由那些在上一次旅程中遭遇严重挫折的人带领的。
西科的股东对其再保险业务(无论其短期利润如何)能否带来有利的长期旅程,是否抱有任何合理的希望?是的,存在一个长期乐观的理由。由于近期再保险公司的违约导致每个人都更加关注承诺方的质量,西科-金融保险和伯克希尔·哈撒韦有助于为西科-金融保险创造一个不寻常的、具有商业价值的声誉,即在许多客户除优质承诺外别无所求的一个或多个市场或子市场中,发行可信赖的承诺。因此,联邦对再保险负债缺乏保险的现状,可能会为西科-金融保险创造一个基于声誉的竞争优势,而这是其会计对手们无法获得的。
所有其他“正常”营业净利润
所有其他“正常”营业净利润,在扣除利息和母公司一般费用后,从 1984 年的 455 万美元下降到 1985 年的 335.4 万美元。来源包括:(1)租金(毛收入 321.9 万美元,不包括 Mutual Savings 为帕萨迪纳办公楼支付的租金;Mutual Savings 在地面租赁中拥有长期权益,但按法律文件的技术性解释,可能被认定为该建筑物权益的实质所有人,尽管 Mutual Savings 并未将其记入资产负债表),以及(2)由精密钢铁及其子公司以及母公司层面持有的现金和可交易证券所产生的利息和股息收入。
证券销售净收益
西科的证券销售净收益总额(已合并并扣除所得税)从 1984 年的 1313.8 万美元增加到 1985 年的 4152.3 万美元。
1985 年的数字包括将通用食品公司股票出售给菲利普·莫里斯公司后的一笔巨额税后收益(3436.3 万美元)。这笔收益包含大量的意外之财。几年前西科对通用食品公司进行股票投资时,是因为通用食品的高管看起来精明能干,并且该股票在市场上可以相对于其作为一家假定永续独立实体所有权份额的价值来说保守的价格买到,像通用食品这样规模的公司竟然会被人“熊抱”式地以远高于当时市场价格的溢价收购,这简直是前所未有且几乎不可想象的。但事情就是这样发生的,完全超出了西科的预料,发生在 1985 年,当时旧有的禁忌正在瓦解,美国企业并购大潮席卷了新的领域。
Bowery 储蓄银行
1985 年,西科与其母公司进行了另一项合资企业,该合资企业以与西科-金融保险合资企业相同的方式获得了西科董事会的批准,加入了一个向一家新成立的、纽约特许的储蓄银行投资 1 亿美元现金的集团。这家新银行随后承接了纽约市破产的 Bowery 储蓄银行的名称、资产和负债。这次接管得到了(1)相当于银行 FDIC 的联邦机构 FDIC 急需的协助,以及(2)纽约银行监管机构的批准。西科投资了 900 万美元,其他伯克希尔·哈撒韦子公司投资了 138.4 万美元,其他未披露的投资者则投资了其余部分,使总投资额达到 1.02 亿美元。
FDIC 提供的援助条款细节极其复杂,但可以公平地概括为,预计这家新成立的银行将在未来许多年内持续获得现金流援助,但条款对援助方相当有利,以至于市场普遍预期该集团会盈利。如果 H 子公司(西科是其中一小部分所有者)基于一家 50 亿美元资产的银行(尽管是问题银行)的优先但高度杠杆化的剩余股权头寸进行精心运作,它应该会盈利。
任何与如此重大的金融杠杆相伴的少数股权投资,在迅速变化的金融环境中,都必然包含内在风险。但对于西科而言,相对于其目前的股本和财务资源,这项投资规模较小。市场判断和前景展望表明,这笔投资的正结果概率合理。
合并资产负债表及相关讨论
西科的合并资产负债表上,现金、现金等价物和可交易证券的流动性缓冲,似乎超过了伯克希尔·哈撒韦合并集团中任何非保险子公司的常见比例。然而,西科董事会认为,鉴于西科目前没有控制的子公司中存在的特殊风险与承诺,保持巨大的流动性是谨慎的,同时持续寻找合适的业务扩展机会,尽管一直在寻找,但尚未能在从西科股东角度看来价格合理的水平上找到。
如随附财务报表附注 3 所示,截至 1985 年 12 月 31 日,西科可交易权益证券的总市值比其总成本高出约 500 万美元,比一年前的约 1300 万美元大幅下降。
西科在帕萨迪纳的房地产(完整的一个街区,包含:(1)一栋现代化办公楼中约 12.5 万平方英尺的一流可净出租面积,包括 Mutual Savings 的空间,加上(2)在经济上属于边际空间的旧建筑中额外尚可净出租的 3.4 万平方英尺,需要昂贵的翻新改造)的市场价值大幅超过账面价值,这由以下两点证明:(1)针对该房地产的抵押债务(501.3 万美元,固定利率 9.25%)已超过其在西科 1985 年 12 月 31 日资产负债表上的折旧后账面价值(315.8 万美元),以及(2)在偿还抵押贷款后,西科每年可获得可观的当前净现金流(约 100 万美元)。尽管帕萨迪纳办公楼空置率很高,但该现代化办公楼的出租率达 96%。我们收取略低于标准的租金,并将这栋楼当作我们欣赏的租户的顶级俱乐部来运营。凭借这些做法、优越的地理位置和出色的停车设施,我们预计未来现金流将增加,但年增长率不会超过通胀率。
将总债务与总股东权益和总流动资产进行比较时,西科仍处于审慎状态。西科的做法是,在具体需求出现之前进行一定数量的长期借款,以便在应对风险和机遇时拥有最大的财务灵活性。
预计合并企业的资产负债表实力将在适当时机用于一项或多项业务扩展。然而,扩展活动需要一些耐心,因为合适的时机并不总是存在。
如西科财务报表随附的附表 I 所示,投资(包括储蓄和贷款及再保险子公司的投资,以及暂时持有待售以资助业务扩展的其他投资)倾向于集中在非常少的几个地方。通过这种集中的投资实践,我们力求对所做出的少数决策有更深入的理解。
西科年度报告的合并净利润与合并股东权益之比,在 1983-85 年间约为 21%,这在很大程度上依赖于不稳定的证券收益。近期的这一比率几乎肯定会下降,很可能会大幅下降。无论是未来可能收购其他业务,还是未来可能实现的证券收益,似乎都不太可能使近期的比率持续下去。如今,业务收购游戏挤满了乐观的参与者,他们通常将像西科这样低杠杆收购者的价格推高到投资回报前景一般水平。而且,如前所述,1985 年证券收益对西科近期股东权益回报率的巨大贡献包含了一个重大的偶然因素。这种偶然收益,无论如何稀少,对于像西科这样的投资者而言,大多是作为一项明显稳健且不需要任何偶然因素就能取得良好结果的投资所带来的意外副产品而出现的。由于几年前证券的交易价格普遍低于现在(相对于证券所代表的企业内在价值而言),从而当时创造的明显稳健的投资机会比现在多,同时,由于随着管理的资产增加,获得高于平均回报的前景往往会下降,因此现在很容易预测未来结果将不那么理想。任何精明的西科股东,在查阅 1985 年年报中披露的西科可交易证券后,也很容易(正确地)判断出决策者目前缺乏良好的投资想法。
西科更努力地从始终记住显而易见的事物中获利,而不是从掌握深奥难懂的东西(包括许多现代的“战略规划”和“投资组合理论”)中获利。这种方法,尽管过去平均而言运作得相当好,并且未来长期内也可能运作得相当好,但由于限制了行动,注定会遇到沉闷和不利的时期。此外,这种方法运用的基础并不雄厚。西科多年来一直在挣扎求存,没有拥有一项业务,哪怕是小业务,拥有足够稳固的商业优势来几乎确保其资本能获得高额未来回报。相比之下,西科的母公司伯克希尔·哈撒韦拥有三项这样的高回报业务。
1986 年 1 月 23 日,西科将常规季度股息从每股 15.5 美分提高到每股 16.5 美分,于 1986 年 3 月 6 日支付给截至 1986 年 2 月 12 日营业结束时登记在册的股东。
本年度报告包含 10-K 表格,这是向证券交易委员会提交的报告,其中包含关于西科及其子公司的详细信息,以及带有广泛附注的经审计财务报表。和往常一样,请您仔细关注这些内容。
• 查尔斯·T·芒格
董事会主席
查尔斯·T·芒格
1986 年 2 月 13 日
Precision Steel Wesco's Precision Steel subsidiary, located in the outskirts of Chicago at Franklin Park, Illinois, was acquired for approximately $15 million on February 28, 1979. The price was roughly book value for a company which carned its inventories on a con- servative LiFTy accounting basis and which contained significant cash balances. More important, the company had reached its position from a modest beginning through naintenance of sound, customer-oriented business values inculcated over a long time y a gitted tounder and his successors, Precision Steel owns a well-established stee service renter business and a subsidiary engaged in the manufacture and distribution of tool ran supplies and other specialty metal products. Precision Steel's businesses contributed $2,010,000 to "normal" net operating in 1985 riofit was achieved in spite of dec*eased sales (down 7% to $51,124,000). income in 1985, down 1% compared with $2,034,000 in 1984. Such a modest decrease Under the skilled leadership of David Hillstrom, Precision Steel's businesses are now quite satisfactory, taking into account the financial leverage put into Wesco's consolidated picture incident to their acquisition. Shortly after Wescos purchase of Precision Steel, a substantial physical expansion of steel warehousing facilities was authorized, involving a new building in Charlotte, North Culina. The new building and the whole North Carolina operation are now very surcessful, contributing $9,140,000 to 1985 sales at a profit margin higher than has prevailed in the long establis «d Chicago headquarters' facility. Precision Steel's businesses, despite their mundane nomenclature, are steps advanced on the quality scale from mere commodity-type businesses. Many customers of Precision Steel, needing dependabir supply un short notice of specialized grades of high-quality cold rolled strip steel, reasonable prices, technical excellence in cutting to order, and remembrance when supplies are short, rightly believe that they have no fully con parable alternative in Precision Steels market area. Indeed, many customers at locations remote from Chicagn and Charlotte fior instance, los Angeles) seek out Precision Sitel's service. Wesco pomains interested on logic dexpansion of Precision Steel's businesses, using available liquid a sets. Wesco-Financial Insurance Company A rey business was addled to the Was group in 1485, in do venture with Wess e's 80% owner and ultinate parent corporation, Berkshire Hothamas Ine. With the enthusstre approval of all Was cosee tors, ind luding substantial Wesco shareholder in the Peters and Casper tamili, without whose approval such action would set haveber a taken, Wese crested $-45,000, 00o cash equavalents in a newly organiard, wholly ened, Nobraske bartered insuran e empany: Wasee-Finane tal Insurance Company ("Ves FIC"). The new subsidiar Wrs FIC.then reinsured, through another Berkshire Hathaway insurane contampany subsidia enanternesday without porce depot threntire borek of insurance basiness of the long etablahed foremans fund orp deed on the Mysti. 5 and losses under a contract covering all insurance premiums earned by Fireman's Fund Wes FIC thereby assumed the benefits and burdens of Fireman's Fund's prices, costs FIC in almost exactly the position it would have been in if it, instead of Fireman's Fund, during a four-year period commencing September 1, 1985. The a rangement puts Wes- the investment side of insurance, as Wes-FIC, instead of Fireman's Fund, Invests funds had directly written 2% of the business. Differences in results should occur only from from "float" generated. Wes-FIC's share of premiums earned In 1986 is expected to be over $60 million. September 1, 1985, to December 31, 1985, are included on pages 29 and 30 of this Wes-FIC's separate firancial statements, uvering the brief period of its existence, Annual Report, and show that Wes-FIC experienced a small 1985 reduction in net worth, from $45,000,000 to $44,676,000. We do not consider this four-month result to have significant predictive value with reflected in 1985 numbers. Moreover, the financial statements are of questionable respect to the future. The price of insurance is rising, with price increases not yet fully accuracy and could be wrong in either direction. It is in the nature of even the finest casualty insurarce businesses that in keeping their accounts they must estimate and in this undertaking make financial statements more mere "best honest guesses" than is deduct all future costs and losses from premiums already earned. Uncertainties inherent typically the case with accounts of non-insurance-writing corporations. And the rein- exira links in the loss-reporting chain, usually creates more accounting uncertainty than surance portion of the casualty insurance business, because it contains one or more the non-reinsurance portion. Finally, Wes-FIC's initial financial statements have a disad- vantage in that the period covered is short, making any use of the reported past cost- price ratio extra dubious as an indicator of any probable future cost-price ratio, due to the small size of the sample forming a base for projection. a reasonable return on its investment over the four vears of the fireman's Fund rein- it is entirely forsoon to foree ast future results for Wes-fiC, but Wesco hopes for: (1) surance contract, and (2) possible future reinsurance contracts with other insurers. shareholder and stock option holder of Fireman's Fund. Mr. Byrne was an outstanding Wesco has high regard for John Byrne, newls appointed CEO and also a large insurance company manager in his previous position as CEO of GEICO CORPORA- enormously during his stewardship. Fireman's Fund insurance business is intrinsic ally TION 138% owned, but not controlled, by Berkshire Hathaway. which improved lower distribution ross prom a different. "direct writing" distribution system. Thus more eyelica and less advantaged than Gees enre insurane busness, which has Firemans funds business wall almost surely be much more castic ult to improve perma- exer utives know all this very well, and with poprovement less spay tao ular than previous nently than win the cast of Cill d), However, Mr. Borne and other Fireman's Fund improvement at Glid C. fremans fund and Wes He could both prosper Industry-wide conditions, de well as managenal exe ellen e, attent Was-Fle a porris. perts tinder the reinsurance contract with Fireman's Fund. Large premium increase now going into effect throughout the casualt insurance basingas could provide some bichwas one at the wordin busters welcome failind off te made a de head ind often to of the period jord tonder! h we are pleased with our relationship with Fireman's Fund, which has a long and distinguished record, going all the way back to superb performance after the great San Francisco earthquake and fire, and which is affiliated with the even longer established American Express Company, one of the premier corporations in the United States. surance contract, and possible short-term, industry-wide cyclical improvement, is tem- However, Wesco's optimism about quality of Fireman's Fund, quality of this rein- pered by a larger and longer view of the reinsurance business. That business has the defect of being too attractive-lonking to new entrants for its own good and therefore will aiways tend to be more or less the opposite of, say, the old business of gathering and rendering dead horses, which tended to contain few and prosperous participants. Troubles, losses, and insolvencies can come fast as the apparent attractions of the reinsurance business, including its seductive receive-pay-in-advance aspects, lure new entrants and encourage expansions by old occupants. The business was a disaster area in recent years, adversely aflected by prices which would have been too low in a stable beyond limits contemplate when policies were issued, and not-minor degradation of woria, plus inflation, new judicial notions tending to augment insurance coverage commercial behavior. No doubt recent cornercial behavior degradation, particularly noticeable in the reinsurance business on both sides of the purchase counter, was accelerated by general hardship, demonstrating unce agdin the wisdom of Poor Richard Almanac: "It is hard for an empty sack to stand upright." Insurance company subsidiaries of Wesers parent corporation, Berkshire the recent period of industry-wide problems, but financial results from reinsurance were Hathaway, long active in reinsurance, did continue proper commercial behavior during terrible. Thus Westo shareholder are bring led not only into an extra hazardous place but also by people who met severe reverses on the last trip. Is there any reasonable hope tor Wesco shareholders that its reinsurance business, one reason torlong-terns optimismis present. With recent defaults by reinsurers cousing whaleyer its short-leem marils, will prewice an advanagrous long from journey? Yes, everyone to worry more about quality in promisors, Wis-FIC and Berkshire Hathaway help creato for Wes-FIC an unusual, commercially-useful reputation ior issuing trust- expert that their alet-fashioner engineering-type attitudes and financial practices will worthy promiseson one or more markets or submarket a herein most busers will ace opt nothing less. Thus, the absener of tederal insuraned ton pensurane liabilities may create for Wife a reputation based competiton adanage which is denied to their ad a counts. Mutua Saving to All i support on all Mated Sauge sempeditor through insure All Other "Normal" Net Operating Income Allother "normal net operating in ome, net at interest paid and pea pat corporate expenses, derraned to $3,354,001 in 1985 from 54.550.000 in 1984 Sour era Were (1) rents ($3.219,000 gross, earluding rent from Mated Savings trun Wow on Posedern office bulling boond prechnical deed to easier although Motel Savings in the ground too toman and dantep d dead Mon ash entrendand marketable securities held by Precision Steel and its subsidiaries and at the parent company levei. Net Gains on Sales of Securities Wesco's aggregate net gains on sales of securities, combined, atrei income taxes, inc:eased to $41,523,000 in 1985 from $13.138,000 in 1984. The 1985 figure includes a big after-tax gain ($34,363,000) from sale of General Foods stock to Philip Morris Company. This gain contained a large amount of windfall profit. When Wesco rade its investment in General Foods stock several years ago, because General Foods' executives seemed sensible and the stock was available in the market at a conservative price relative to its value as a share of ownership in a presumn- ably ever-continuing independent enti!y, it was unprecedented and virtually incon- ceivable that a corporation the size of Genera! Foods wouid ever be "bear-hugged" into selling out at an immense premium over the then prevailing market price for its stock. and the great American takenver ge:ne swept into new areas. But that is what happened, wholly unpredicted by Wesco, in 1985 as old taboos ero ded Bowery Savings Bank In 1985 Wesco, in anether co-venture with its parent corporation, approved by Wesco's dirertors in the satae manner as the Wes-FIC co- anture, joined d group which invested $100,000,000 rash in a nowly organized, New York-chartererd sovings bank. The new bank Ihen tonk over the name, estets and liabilities of the insolvent Bowery Savings Bunk in the d ity oftoriy York. The Takrover reorived Wmu h needed assistanee from HDIC. the lederal agency, akin to ISLIC, which insun deposits in banks, and (2) the bleising of Now York bank regulators. Wesco anvested $9,000,000, other Berkshire Hathawas subsicharit s investeed S1. 384,000 andother untelaleddinvestors invested the halane e ot tito $1020,000,000. The terme of ttr FE degstanee whe hand dadde inc omer asastanc e pryments poser summarizedas tartrom adequate tenassare that the marsteir will make a protit. Thisas as many yeats fos !he newi organeed bank. are estremof c omplex hut can be fnirly i showle be when Sird mben basea hashly legeregedd residduat opusty position in,1 $5 buffon bank, abet one sth mand ack olsse. busine ssit e d' drass: pastee, ansons, e troabted c ompos d's a deensdug Any minorite pesten uenden with seh pateeme tmandal Reverage ion efter t envirenmen ea torly fns e alleed d ventare d apatel topr misp s ment dor Wesee In ond? jurymand the pospect ton panajusttedd therch ollo dhransodmentanodr, oall drenseasetiddenmsk degeneu ddes ese med arret dle bn coopl the ddes tose rrsposare• portica dalbo #oe od Nesees copse fated nee merwth Mr copsde ae tonancdalls involed i ser torluar ed handted smadd Dadde sseet io deppate dne aled sote de Hraknut eur eelulls Consolidated Balanee Shert and Related Discussion Mtar en e omegardated beetm to chated dl! totus d cdeneth brutteg ed d ommpans whoses onsoldae d rnd carth op porelarer duranda omnare to othede aldddi ledlerc daed tottetuas slest posseobotaso spocstron cot esdehtanal pog anaerost o fars pader les catr H found available, despite constant searcl:, at prices deemed rational from the standpoint of Wesco shaitholders. As indicated in Note 3 lo the accompanying financial statements, the aggregate market value of wescos marketable equity securities was nigher than their aggregate cost at December 31, 1985 by about $5 million, down sharply from about $13 million one year eárlier. Wesco's Pasadena real estate, a full block (containing (1) about 125,000 first class net rentable square feet, including Mutual Savings' space, in a moderr office building, plus (2) an additional l:et rentable 34,000.square teet or economically m'arginal space in olo buildings requiring expensive improvement), has a market value suk stantially in exces of carrying value, demonstrated by (1) mortgage debt ($5,023,00l at 9.25% fixed) against this real estate now exceeding its depreciater! carrying valut ($3,158,000) in Wesco's balance sheet at December 31, 1985, and (2) substantial current net cash flow (about $1 million per year) to Wesco after debt service on the mortgage. The modern office building is 96,% rented, despite a glut of vacant office space in Pasadena. We charge just-below-standard rents and run the building as a sort of first-class club for tenants we admire. With these practices, a prime location and superior parking facili- inflation. ties, we anticipate future increases in cash flow, but at no better rate than the rate of Wesco remains in a prudent position when total debt is compared to total share- holders' equity and total liquid assetș. Wesco's practice has beento do a certain amount oflong-term borrowing in advance of specific need, in order to have maximum financial flexibility to face both hazards and opportunities. due course be used in one or more business extensions. The extension activity, however, It is expected that the balance sheet strength of the consolidated enterprise will in requires some patience, as suitable opportunities are not always present. As indicated in ichedule | accompanying Wesco's financial statements, invest- ments, both those in the savings and loan and reinsurance subsiciaries and those held! temporarily elsewhere pending sale to fund business extension, tend to be concen- trated in very few places. Through this practice of concentration of investments, better understanding is sought with respect to the few decisions made. The ratio of Wesco's annual reported consolidated net income to reported consoli- dated shareholders' equity, about 21% in 1983-85, was dependent to a very large extent on securities gains, irregular bynature, Therecentratio is aimosi certain to decline, quite probably very sharply. Neither possible future acquisitions of other businesses nor possible future securities gains appear likely to cause the recent ratio to continue. The business acquisition game is now crowded with optimistic players who usually force prices for low-leverage acquirers like Wesco to levels where return-on-investment prospects are modest. And, as discussed earlier, the great contribution of 1985 securities gains to Wesco's recent return on shareholders equity contained a big fluke element. Such fluke gain, rare in any event, tends to come io an investor like Wesco mostly as an unanticipated by-produrt of an obviously sound investment which does not require any fluke to work out well. Because securities generally traded lower several years ago than they do now, relative to the intrinsis values of the businesses represented by the securities, creating more obviously sound investments then than now, and because 9 prospects for above-average returns tend to go down as assets managed go up, it is now easy to predict less desirable future resulis, It is also easy for any sophisticated Wesco shareholder, reviewing Wesco marketable securities disclosed in the 1985 Annual Report, to diagnose (correctly) that the decision-makers are dry of good investment Wesco is trying more to profit from always remembering the obvious than from grasping the esoteric (including much modern "strategic planning" and "portfolio theory"). Such an approach, while it has worked fairly weil on average in the past and will probably work fairiy well over the long-term future, is bound to encounter periods of dullness and disadvantage as it limits action. Moreover, the approach is being applied to no great base position. Wesco is sort of scrambling through the years without owning a single business, even a small one, with enough commercial advantage in place to prelty well assure high future returns on its capital. In contrast, Berkshire Hathaway, Wesco's parent corporation, owns three such high-return businesses. On January 23, 1986, Wesco increased its regular quarterly dividend fror 15½ as of the close of business on February cents per share to 16½ cents per share, payable March 6, 1986, to shareholders of record Exchange Commission, and includes detailed irformation about Wesco and its subsidi- This annual report contains Form 10-K, a report filed with the Securities and aries as well as audited financial statements bearing extensive footnotes. As usual, your careful attention is sought with respect to triese items. • CharlesT manger Chairman ot the Board Charles T. Munger February 13. 1986