为何奥巴马必须正确应对埃及问题
革命通常以热情开始，以眼泪结束。就中东局势而言，如果奥巴马总统坚定地坚持那些让他当选的价值观，那么眼泪是可以避免的。尽管美国在世界上的实力和影响力已经下降，但我们的盟友及其军队仍视我们为方向指引者。只要这些军队不介入政治，它们就足以维持法律和秩序；因此，革命可以保持和平。这正是美国应该坚持的，同时鼓励那些不再被本国人民容忍的腐败和压迫统治者下台，并允许在自由公正的选举中选出新的领导人。
Revolutions usually start with enthusiasm and end in tears. In the case of the Middle East, the tears could be avoided if President Obama stands firmly by the values that got him elected. Although American power and influence in the world have declined, our allies and their armies look to us for direction. These armies are strong enough to maintain law and order as long as they stay out of politics; thus the revolutions can remain peaceful. That is what the United States should insist on while encouraging corrupt and repressive rulers who are no longer tolerated by their people to step aside and allow new leaders to be elected in free and fair elections.
这是突尼斯革命正在走的路。突尼斯拥有相对发达的中产阶级，女性享有的权利和机会超过大多数穆斯林国家，而失败的政权本质上是世俗政权。民主变革的前景是光明的。
That is the course that the revolution in Tunisia is taking. Tunisia has a relatively well-developed middle class, women there enjoy greater rights and opportunities than in most Muslim countries, and the failed regime was secular in character. The prospects for democratic change are favorable.
埃及的情况更为复杂，且最终影响力更大，正因如此，处理好埃及问题至关重要。抗议者群体极为多元——既有受过高等教育的人，也有普通民众；既有年轻人，也有老者；既有家境优渥者，也有极度贫困的人。尽管解放广场上的口号和人群并未推行任何神权政治议程，但在该国高压环境中幸存下来的、组织最完善的政治反对力量却是穆斯林兄弟会。在自由选举中，兄弟会势必会成为一股重要的政治力量，尽管远未确保能获得多数席位。
Egypt is more complex and, ultimately, more influential, which is why it is so important to get it right. The protesters are very diverse, including highly educated and common people, young and old, well-to-do and desperately poor. While the slogans and crowds in Tahrir Square are not advancing a theocratic agenda at all, the best-organized political opposition that managed to survive in that country’s repressive environment is the Muslim Brotherhood. In free elections, the Brotherhood is bound to emerge as a major political force, though it is far from assured of a majority.
一些人公开表达了对自由选举可能带来不利后果的担忧，认为埃及军方可能试图伪造选举结果；以色列可能坚决反对政权更迭；必须避免极端主义政治像多米诺骨牌效应一样蔓延到其他国家；该地区的石油供应也可能受到干扰。这些观念构成了关于中东的旧有传统思维——需要加以改变，以免华盛顿错误地抵制或犹豫不决，未能支持埃及的转型。
Some have articulated fears of adverse consequences of free elections, suggesting that the Egyptian military may seek to falsify the results; that Israel may be adamantly opposed to a regime change; that the domino effect of extremist politics spreading to other countries must be avoided; and that the supply of oil from the region could be disrupted. These notions constitute the old conventional wisdom about the Middle East – and need to be changed, lest Washington incorrectly put up resistance to or hesitate in supporting transition in Egypt.
这将是令人遗憾的。奥巴马总统本人和美国这个国家，若能挺身而出，站在公众对尊严与民主的诉求一边，将大有裨益。这将有助于重建美国的领导地位，并消除我们联盟中因与不得人心、压迫性政权为伍而长期存在的结构性弱点。最重要的是，这样做将为该地区的和平进步开辟道路。穆斯林兄弟会与诺贝尔奖得主、正寻求竞选总统的穆罕默德·巴拉迪（Mohamed ElBaradei）的合作，是一个令人鼓舞的迹象，表明它打算在民主政治体系中发挥建设性作用。至于蔓延效应，比起我们的盟友，它更可能危及美国的敌人——叙利亚和伊朗——前提是它们愿意在雪崩来临前主动出击。
That would be regrettable. President Obama personally and the United States as a country have much to gain by moving out in front and siding with the public demand for dignity and democracy. This would help rebuild America’s leadership and remove a lingering structural weakness in our alliances that comes from being associated with unpopular and repressive regimes. Most important, doing so would open the way to peaceful progress in the region. The Muslim Brotherhood’s cooperation with Mohamed ElBaradei, the Nobel laureate who is seeking to run for president, is a hopeful sign that it intends to play a constructive role in a democratic political system. As regards contagion, it is more likely to endanger the enemies of the United States – Syria and Iran – than our allies, provided that they are willing to move out ahead of the avalanche.
主要障碍是以色列。事实上，以色列从中东民主化进程中获益的程度与美国相当。但以色列不太可能认清自身的最佳利益，因为这种变化来得太过突然，且伴随重重风险。而美国一些支持以色列的人士，比以色列人本身还要固执和意识形态化。所幸的是，奥巴马并不受制于那些对他怀有真正仇视的宗教右翼势力。美国以色列公共事务委员会（AIPAC）已不再铁板一块，也不再是犹太社区的唯一代表。主要风险在于，奥巴马政府能否足够迅速地调整政策，以适应骤然改变的现实。
The main stumbling block is Israel. In reality, Israel has as much to gain from the spread of democracy in the Middle East as the United States has. But Israel is unlikely to recognize its own best interests because the change is too sudden and carries too many risks. And some U.S. supporters of Israel are more rigid and ideological than Israelis themselves. Fortunately, Obama is not beholden to the religious right, which has carried on a veritable vendetta against him. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee is no longer monolithic or the sole representative of the Jewish community. The main danger is that the Obama administration will not adjust its policies quickly enough to the suddenly changed reality.
总体而言，我对革命持谨慎态度。但在埃及这件事上，我看到成功的可能性很大。作为一名坚定的民主与开放社会倡导者，我情不自禁地感受到席卷中东的这股热情。我希望奥巴马总统能迅速支持埃及人民。我的基金会已准备好贡献自己的力量。具体来说，这意味着在那些请求帮助建立法治、宪法改革、打击腐败和加强民主制度的国家，成立资源中心来提供支持，同时远离那些不欢迎这些努力的国度。
I am, as a general rule, wary of revolutions. But in the case of Egypt, I see a good chance of success. As a committed advocate of democracy and open society, I cannot help but share in the enthusiasm that is sweeping across the Middle East. I hope President Obama will expeditiously support the people of Egypt. My foundations are prepared to contribute what they can. In practice, that means establishing resource centers for supporting the rule of law, constitutional reform, fighting corruption and strengthening democratic institutions in those countries that request help in establishing them, while staying out of those countries where such efforts are not welcome.