维持乌克兰的突破
在令人惊骇的暴力不断升级之后，乌克兰起义取得了出人意料的积极结果。与所有理性预期相反，一群公民仅凭棍棒和用纸板箱、金属垃圾盖做成的盾牌，就击溃了一支使用实弹的警察部队。伤亡惨重，但公民取得了胜利。这是那些给社会集体记忆留下持久印记的历史性时刻之一。这样的事情怎么会发生？沃纳·海森堡的量子力学不确定性原理提供了一个贴切的比喻。海森堡从量子力学中得知，亚原子现象可以表现为粒子或波；同样，人类也可以在作为单个粒子或作为更大波浪的组成部分之间转换。换句话说，乌克兰这类历史事件不可预测，与人类身份中的不确定因素有关。人们的身份由个人元素和他们所属的更大单位的元素共同构成，人们对现实的影响取决于哪些元素主导了他们的行为。当平民于 2 月 20 日在基辅对武装部队发动自杀式攻击时，他们代表“民族”的意识远远超过了对个人死亡的关切。其结果是将一个严重分裂的社会从内战边缘推向了一种前所未有的团结感。这种团结能否持久，取决于欧洲如何回应。乌克兰人已表明他们对欧盟的忠诚，而欧盟本身却陷入了严重的分裂，欧元危机使债权国和债务国相互对立。这就是为什么欧盟在与乌克兰就联系国协定的谈判中被俄罗斯轻易击败的原因。一如既往，在德国领导下的欧盟向乌克兰提供的太少，而要求的却太多。如今，在乌克兰人民寻求与欧洲建立更紧密联系的承诺推动了一场成功的民众起义之后，欧盟连同国际货币基金组织正在制定一项数十亿美元的救援计划，以拯救该国免于金融崩溃。但这不足以维持乌克兰未来几年所需的民族团结。我于 1990 年——在该国实现独立之前——在乌克兰建立了复兴基金会。该基金会没有参与最近的起义，但它确实充当了受官方镇压目标的捍卫者。该基金会现在准备支持乌克兰人建立有韧性的民主制度（尤其是独立而专业的司法机构）的强烈愿望。但乌克兰需要只有欧盟才能提供的外部援助：管理专长和市场准入。在 1990 年代中欧经济引人注目的转型中，管理专长和市场准入来自于德国及其他欧盟公司的大规模投资，这些投资将当地生产商整合到了它们的全球价值链中。乌克兰拥有高素质的人力资本和多元化的经济，是潜在的有吸引力的投资目的地。但实现这一潜力需要改善整个经济以及各个行业内部的商业环境——特别是解决普遍存在的腐败和法治薄弱问题，这些问题正在吓跑国内外投资者。除了鼓励外国直接投资，欧盟还可以提供支持，培训当地公司的管理人员，帮助他们制定商业战略，服务提供者通过股权或利润分成获得报酬。向大量公司推广此类支持的一个有效方式，是将其与商业银行提供的信贷额度结合起来。为了鼓励参与，欧洲复兴开发银行（EBRD）可以像在中欧那样，与外国和当地投资者一起投资于公司。如此一来，乌克兰将向欧洲公司全资或部分持股子公司制造或组装的产品开放国内市场，而欧盟则将增加乌克兰公司的市场准入，并帮助它们融入全球市场。我希望并相信，在德国领导下的欧洲能够迎接挑战。我多年来一直主张，德国应该承担起其作为欧洲主导地位的责任和义务。今天，乌克兰需要一个现代版的马歇尔计划——美国在二战后曾用该计划帮助重建欧洲。德国今天应该扮演美国当时扮演的角色。但有一句告诫是必要的。马歇尔计划没有包括苏联集团，从而加剧了欧洲的冷战分裂。乌克兰和欧洲都承受不起重蹈覆辙。乌克兰位于俄罗斯和欧洲之间。它依赖俄罗斯的天然气，也需要为其产品进入欧洲市场寻求通道；它必须与双方都保持良好关系。在这方面，德国也应该带头。安格拉·默克尔总理必须主动联系弗拉基米尔·普京总统，确保俄罗斯在乌克兰的复兴中成为合作伙伴，而不是对手。
Following a crescendo of terrifying violence, the Ukrainian uprising has had a surprisingly positive outcome. Contrary to all rational expectations, a group of citizens armed with not much more than sticks and shields made of cardboard boxes and metal garbage-can lids overwhelmed a police force firing live ammunition. There were many casualties, but the citizens prevailed. This was one of those historic moments that leave a lasting imprint on a society’s collective memory. How could such a thing happen? Werner Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle in quantum mechanics offers a fitting metaphor. Heisenberg knew from quantum mechanics that subatomic phenomena can manifest themselves as particles or waves; similarly, human beings may alternate between behaving as individual particles or as components of a larger wave. In other words, the unpredictability of historical events such as those in Ukraine has to do with an element of uncertainty in human identity. People’s identity is made up of individual elements and elements of larger units to which they belong, and peoples’ impact on reality depends on which elements dominate their behavior. When civilians launched a suicidal attack on an armed force in Kyiv on February 20, their sense of representing “the nation” far outweighed their concern with their individual mortality. The result was to swing a deeply divided society from the verge of civil war to an unprecedented sense of unity. Whether that unity endures will depend on how Europe responds. Ukrainians have demonstrated their allegiance to a European Union that is itself hopelessly divided, with the euro crisis pitting creditor and debtor countries against one another. That is why the EU was hopelessly outmaneuvered by Russia in the negotiations with Ukraine over an Association Agreement. True to form, the EU under German leadership offered far too little and demanded far too much from Ukraine. Now, after the Ukrainian people’s commitment to closer ties with Europe fueled a successful popular insurrection, the EU, along with the International Monetary Fund, is putting together a multibillion-dollar rescue package to save the country from financial collapse. But that will not be sufficient to sustain the national unity that Ukraine will need in the coming years. I established the Renaissance Foundation in Ukraine in 1990 – before the country achieved independence. The foundation did not participate in the recent uprising, but it did serve as a defender of those targeted by official repression. The foundation is now ready to support Ukrainians’ strongly felt desire to establish resilient democratic institutions (above all, an independent and professional judiciary). But Ukraine will need outside assistance that only the EU can provide: management expertise and access to markets. In the remarkable transformation of Central Europe’s economies in the 1990’s, management expertise and market access resulted from massive investments by German and other EU-based companies, which integrated local producers into their global value chains. Ukraine, with its high-quality human capital and diversified economy, is a potentially attractive investment destination. But realizing this potential requires improving the business climate across the economy as a whole and within individual sectors – particularly by addressing the endemic corruption and weak rule of law that are deterring foreign and domestic investors alike. In addition to encouraging foreign direct investment, the EU could provide support to train local companies’ managers and help them develop their business strategies, with service providers remunerated by equity stakes or profit-sharing. An effective way to roll out such support to a large number of companies would be to combine it with credit lines provided by commercial banks. To encourage participation, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) could invest in companies alongside foreign and local investors, as it did in Central Europe. Ukraine would thus open its domestic market to goods manufactured or assembled by European companies’ wholly- or partly-owned subsidiaries, while the EU would increase market access for Ukrainian companies and help them integrate into global markets. I hope and trust that Europe under German leadership will rise to the occasion. I have been arguing for several years that Germany should accept the responsibilities and liabilities of its dominant position in Europe. Today, Ukraine needs a modern-day equivalent of the Marshall Plan, by which the United States helped to reconstruct Europe after World War II. Germany ought to play the same role today as the US did then. But a word of caution is in order. The Marshall Plan did not include the Soviet bloc, reinforcing the Cold War division of Europe. Neither Ukraine nor Europe can afford a replay. Ukraine is situated half way between Russia and Europe. It depends on Russian gas, and it needs access for its products to European markets; it must have good relations with both sides. Here, too, Germany should take the lead. Chancellor Angela Merkel must reach out to President Vladimir Putin to ensure that Russia is a partner, not an opponent, in the Ukrainian renaissance.