英国需要更大团结，而非混乱分裂
这是英国考虑脱离欧盟——或者苏格兰脱离英国——最糟糕的时机。
This is the worst possible time for Britain to consider leaving the EU – or for Scotland to break with Britain.
欧盟是一个尚未完成的欧洲国家工程，这些国家牺牲了部分主权，以基于共同的价值观和理念构建一个日益紧密的联盟。然而，这些共同价值观正面临多方面的攻击。俄罗斯对乌克兰的非宣而战或许是眼下最直接的例子，但这绝非唯一。在欧洲境内、边界及全球范围内，民族主义回潮与不自由的民主正在抬头。
The EU is an unfinished project of European states that have sacrificed part of their sovereignty to form an ever-closer union based on shared values and ideals. Those shared values are under attack on multiple fronts. Russia’s undeclared war against Ukraine is perhaps the most immediate example but it is by no means the only one. Resurgent nationalism and illiberal democracy are on the rise within Europe, at its borders and around the globe.
自二战以来，以美国为首的欧洲列强一直是现行国际秩序的主要支持者。然而近年来，深陷欧元区危机的欧洲开始转向内部，其在国际事务中发挥积极作用的能力受到削弱。
Since world war two the European powers, along with the US, have been the main supporters of the prevailing international order. Yet, in recent years, overwhelmed by the euro crisis, Europe has turned inward, diminishing its ability to play a forceful role in international affairs.
更糟糕的是，美国出于不同的原因，也做了同样的事。他们对国内事务的过度专注造成了真空，而野心勃勃的地区强国正试图填补这个真空。
To make matters worse, the US has done the same, if for different reasons. Their preoccupation with domestic matters has created a vacuum that ambitious regional powers have sought to fill.
由此导致的国际治理失灵在全球引发了大量悬而未决的危机。这一问题在中东地区最为严重。伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国（ISIS）的突然崛起，提供了一个最触目惊心的例子，表明局势能恶化到何种程度，又能造成多大的人类苦难。
The resulting breakdown of international governance has given rise to a plethora of unresolved crises around the globe. The breakdown is most acute in the Middle East. The sudden emergence of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, or Isis, provides the most gruesome example of how far it can go and how much human suffering it can cause.
随着俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，军事冲突蔓延至欧洲。两种截然不同的政府形态正在争夺主导权。欧盟代表着自由民主、国际治理与法治原则。而在俄罗斯，弗拉基米尔·普京总统利用族裔与宗教民族主义的叙事来为其腐败的威权政权制造民众支持，借此维持民主的外表。
With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, military conflict has spread to Europe. Two radically different forms of government are competing for ascendancy. The EU stands for principles of liberal democracy, international governance and the rule of law. In Russia, President Vladimir Putin maintains the outward appearance of democracy by exploiting a narrative of ethnic and religious nationalism to generate popular support for his corrupt, authoritarian regime.
作为主要大国和全球金融中心，英国理应在制定欧洲应对这一威胁的方案中发挥核心作用。但与美国和欧盟自身一样，英国也被内部事务分了心。保守党首相戴维·卡梅伦（David Cameron）受到反欧热情——尤其来自党内的压力——的左右，决定于 2017 年就英国是否应留在欧盟内举行公投。而关于苏格兰独立的公投也近在眼前。正值英国应直面其生活方式所面临的严重威胁之际，它却忙于各种形式的“分手”事宜。
As a major power and global financial centre, Britain ought to be centrally involved in crafting a European response to this threat. But like the US and the EU itself, Britain has also been distracted by internal matters. Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron has been persuaded by anti-European zeal – not least within his own party – to put UK membership in the EU to a vote in 2017. A poll on Scottish independence is only days away. Just when Britain should be confronting grave threats to its way of life, it is preoccupied with divorce of one type or another.
离婚总是一地鸡毛。苏格兰独立公投——无论从政治还是经济角度看——都会同时削弱一个被抽空的英国和苏格兰本身。一个独立的苏格兰在财政上会很不稳定，尤其是如果赖账的威胁变成现实的话。
Divorce is always messy. A vote for Scottish independence would weaken – in political and economic terms – both a truncated UK and Scotland. An independent Scotland would be financially unstable, especially if threats to renege on debt repayments were carried through.
在欧元危机已经暴露了所有陷阱之后，苏格兰和英国其他地区若要结成货币联盟而无政治联盟，将是一个倒退的步骤，双方都不应该考虑。然而，没有货币联盟，独立的苏格兰就无法从强势英镑带来的低利率中获益。这些考量应该压倒独立可能带来的任何潜在好处。
For Scotland and the rest of the UK to enter into a currency union without a political union, after the euro crisis has demonstrated all the pitfalls, would be a retrograde step that neither side should contemplate. Yet without it, an independent Scotland could not benefit from the low interest rates that a strong pound has brought. These considerations ought to outweigh whatever possible benefits independence might bring.
是的，苏格兰和英国其他地区在政策上确实存在显著差异。在边界北侧，许多问题（尤其是教育）上采取了更偏左的立场。但作为欧盟成员国内部一个联合英国的一部分，苏格兰将更有能力实现其政治目标。
Yes, there are significant policy differences between Scotland and the rest of the UK. There is a more left-leaning approach to many issues, notably education, north of the border. But Scotland would be better placed to attain its political goals as part of a united Britain that is part of the EU.
同理适用于英国脱欧。政策分歧是可以调和的。离婚只会削弱英国。那些呼吁分离的人似乎忘了，英国目前正享受着一种理想到极致的状态——身在欧盟却不在欧元区，这让英国既能享受贸易好处，又不受货币约束。
The same applies to a British exit from Europe. Policy differences can be mediated. A divorce would weaken the UK. Those who call for separation seem to have forgotten that Britain currently enjoys the best of all possible worlds. Being part of the EU but not part of the euro allows the UK to enjoy the trading benefits without the currency constraints.
此外，英国一直以来都在敌对的集团之间扮演着平衡角色。如果英国缺失，欧盟在全球的影响力将大大减弱。
Furthermore, Britain has always played a balancing role between hostile blocs. Its absence would greatly diminish the weight of the EU in the world.
欧盟已被证明是二战以来和平与人类安全的最佳保障者。维护支撑整个生活方式之共同价值观的重要性，远超独立可能带来的任何优势。我们正面临的艰难时期呼唤的是加强团结，而非分离。
The EU has proved to be the best guarantor of peace and human security since the end of the second world war. The importance of preserving the shared values underpinning a whole way of life far outweigh any possible advantages of independence. The difficult times we are facing call for increased unity, not divorce.
只有当英国未能解决与欧盟的分歧，并且亲欧的苏格兰人（在投票选择留在英国后）因此在 2017 年不情愿地被排除在欧洲之外时，苏格兰人才有正当理由要求举行新的公投。如果真的走到那一步，苏格兰将处于不同的位置——一个可能让独立合法化的位置。
Only if Britain fails to resolve its differences with the EU, and if the pro-European Scots (having voted to remain within the UK) thus find themselves unwillingly excluded from Europe in 2017, would there be just cause for Scots to call for a new referendum. If it comes to that, Scotland will be in a different position – one that could legitimise a split.
但现在投票脱离英国独立，无异于过早放弃苏格兰在伦敦的谈判筹码，以及英国在全球的影响力。
But to vote for independence from the UK now would be to prematurely surrender Scottish leverage in London, and Britain’s leverage in the world.