此刻是法国发行永续债券之时
医学科学终将通过生产足够的疫苗为所有人接种，从而控制住新冠疫情。与此同时，这场病毒已造成全球性的经济冲击，其严重程度超过了 2008 年的金融危机。随着各种毒株的快速演变，专家预测新一轮感染可能比上一波更严重。这需要大胆的经济对策。
Medical science will eventually bring the Covid-19 pandemic under control by producing enough vaccines to inoculate everyone. In the meantime, the virus has caused an economic shock of global proportions, worse than the financial crisis of 2008. With the rapid evolution of various strains the experts predict a new wave of infections that may be worse than the previous one. That requires a bold economic response.
值得称赞的是，马克龙总统支持帮助较贫困国家应对疫情的立场。这将通过发行新的特别提款权（SDRs）来实现，这是一种由国际货币基金组织（IMF）管理的工具。IMF 根据其成员的持股比例分配 SDRs。大部分份额由富裕国家持有，它们并不真正需要这些资金，因为它们可以从金融市场以自己的名义借钱。不过，它们可以将自己的配额借给它们选择的、急需这些资金的较贫困国家。这正是新发行 SDRs 帮助欠发达国家应对疫情的方式。
President Macron to his credit endorsed the case for helping poorer countries cope with the pandemic. This would take the form of a new issue of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), an instrument administered by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF distributes the SDRs among its members in accordance with their shareholdings. The bulk of the shares is held by rich countries, which don’t really need them because they can borrow money in their own name from the financial markets. They can however lend their allocations to poorer countries of their choice who are desperate to receive them. That is how a new issue of SDRs helps the less developed world to cope with the pandemic.
由于美国是 IMF 的最大股东，它对发行新的 SDRs 拥有否决权。特朗普政府以站不住脚的理由行使了这一否决权，但美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦已明确表示，拜登政府将解除否决权，并允许 IMF 理事会批准新的发行。
Because the US is the IMF’s largest shareholder, it has a veto over issuing new SDRs. The Trump regime exercised this veto on spurious grounds, but US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has made it clear that the Biden administration will lift the veto and allow the governing board of the IMF to authorize a new issue.
SDRs 是全球应对疫情的重要组成部分。将自己的份额借给欠发达国家并非慈善；除非在全球范围内控制病毒，否则疫情无法得到遏制。但像法国这样的富裕国家应利用另一种类似于 SDRs 的工具来满足自身的需求。它应该发行永续债券。
SDRs are an important part of the global response to the pandemic. Lending their shares to less developed countries is not charity; the virus cannot be brought under control unless it is done globally. But a rich country like France should use another instrument, similar to SDRs, to take care of its own needs. It should issue perpetual bonds.
永续债券已有数百年的使用历史。英国在 1752 年发行了称为“统一公债（Consols）”的永续债券，后来还用同样也是永续的“战争债券”为拿破仑战争融资。美国在 1870 年代发行了统一公债。但欧盟成员国对永续债券并不熟悉——尽管第一张永续债券实际上是由荷兰人在 1648 年为维护其堤坝而发行的。这些债券至今仍未偿还，但由于年利息支付额极小，很少有人知道它们的存在。
Perpetual bonds have been used for centuries. Britain issued perpetual bonds, called ‘Consols,’ in 1752 and later used ‘war bonds’ which are also perpetual to finance the Napoleonic wars. The US issued Consols in the 1870s. But the member states of the European Union are unfamiliar with perpetual bonds – although the first perpetual bonds were actually issued by the Dutch in 1648 to maintain their dikes. These bonds are still outstanding, but the annual interest payments are so small that few people are aware of their existence.
并非所有成员国都有条件发行永续债券，但法国是其中之一。在德国，德意志联邦银行负责管理国家债务，其行长延斯·魏德曼坚决反对这一想法。至于意大利，该国的信用状况存疑，尽管随着马里奥·德拉吉成为总理，情况可能会有所改善。
Not all the member states are in a position to issue perpetual bonds, but France is one of them. In Germany, the Bundesbank is in charge of managing the national debt and the President of the Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann is adamantly opposed to the idea. In the case of Italy, the credit worthiness of the country is in doubt, although the situation may improve now that Mario Draghi has become Prime Minister.
发行永续债券对法国尤其有用，因为它担保了大量贷款，其中许多将无法偿还。担保的贷款金额为 3000 亿欧元；国家承担的最大财务风险为 1060 亿欧元。该国在抗击疫情中还承担了许多其他费用。在疫情得到控制后，可以计算出确切数额。
Issuing perpetual bonds would be particularly useful to France because it has guaranteed a large amount of loans many of which will not be repaid. The amount of loans guaranteed is €300 billion; the maximum amount of financial risk assumed by the state is €106 billion. The state is incurring many other expenses in fighting the pandemic. It will be possible to calculate the exact amount after the pandemic has been brought under control.
法国的国家债务已远超《马斯特里赫特条约》规定的 GDP 的 60%。再加上抗击疫情的代价，这表明发行永续债券的空间巨大。
The national debt of France is already well in excess of the 60% of GDP prescribed by the Maastricht Treaty. Add to it the cost of fighting the pandemic and that indicates the scope for issuing perpetual bonds.
现在对法国来说是发行永续债券的绝佳时机。顾名思义，永续债券永远无需偿还本金，只需要支付年度利息。利率几乎不可能降得更低了。法国债券的需求已经很高；如果将未偿付金额降至 60%，需求会更高。
This is a very good time for France to issue perpetual bonds. As their name implies, perpetual bonds never have to be repaid, only the annual interest payments are due. Interest rates could hardly fall any lower. French bonds are already in high demand; if the amount outstanding were reduced to 60% of the demand would be even higher.
起初，在市场熟悉这一新工具之前，永续债券可能不得不以低于普通长期债券的折扣发行，但最终它们会获得溢价，因为随着需求增加，法国永续债券将成为市场上规模最大、交易最活跃的品种。
At first, until the market familiarizes itself with a new instrument, perpetual bonds may have to be offered at a discount from ordinary long term bonds, but eventually they would fetch a premium because with the increased demand, French perpetual bonds would become the largest and most actively traded issue on the market.
需要强调的是，发行永续债券是一种非常规措施，不应在正常时期使用。这一要求应纳入授权发行永续债券的法律中。这应在任何反对意见提出之前就予以解决。
It should be emphasized that issuing perpetual bonds is an exceptional measure that should not be used in normal times. This requirement should be incorporated in the law that authorizes perpetual bonds. That should take care of any objection before it has been raised.