成长股泡沫破裂的更新（活动讲话）

2022 · 演讲 · 原文约 900 词

译文与英文原文逐段对齐可在本页展开英文，也可打开发布者原址核对上下文。

泡沫破裂事件动态：成长股仍是焦点

杰里米·格兰瑟姆、西蒙·哈里斯、本·英克 | 2022 年 6 月 15 日

概述

在本期网络直播中，杰里米·格兰瑟姆、本·英克和西蒙·哈里斯讨论了近期市场的波动，并介绍了价值股与成长股之间巨大的估值差异所带来的机会的最新情况。尽管价值股今年相对成长股表现强劲，但我们的分析表明，仍有相当大的潜力可挖。

UPDATE ON THE BURSTING BUBBLE IN EVENT HIGHLIGHTS GROWTH STOCKS Jeremy Grantham, Simon Harris, and Ben Inker | June 15, 2022 OVERVIEW In this webcast, Jeremy Grantham, Ben Inker, and Simon Harris discuss recent market volatility and provide an update on the opportunity the wide spread in valuations between Value and Growth stocks still presents. While Value has had a strong year relative to Growth, our analysis indicates that considerable potential remains.

要点 ■ 泡沫尚未完全消散，进一步下跌可能还需要一两年时间才能走完。股票、债券、房地产和大宗商品均普遍存在高估值现象。■ 对投资者而言，最痛苦的群体无疑是“成长陷阱”——即那些业绩令分析师失望的成长股。自去年夏天以来，成长股整体回报已相当糟糕，而成长陷阱的跌幅竟比整个成长股板块的同期表现还要大，创造了有史以来任何可比时段的最大差距。■ 我们认为股市错位机会仍然极为强劲。下图展示了美国价值股相对于美国成长股的历史估值走势；该指标已做归一化处理，1 代表公允价值。GMO 于 2020 年 10 月推出股市错位策略，旨在利用成长股泡沫。彼时美国价值股的公允价值仅为 53%，处于历史第 2 百分位。价值股相对于成长股更具吸引力的唯一时期，是科技泡沫的顶峰。虽然此后价值/成长价差已有所回归，但我们认为仍有相当大的潜力。截至 2022 年 5 月 31 日，该指标为公允价值的 75%，处于历史第 11 百分位。如果相对估值回归长期均值水平，做多全球价值股、做空全球成长股的投资组合可能从此处产生强劲的绝对回报。

KEY POINTS ■ The bubble has not finished losing air, and further declines could take a couple of years to play out. High valuations are widespread across equities, bonds, housing, and commodities. ■ The group that has been far and away the most painful for investors has been “growth traps” – Growth stocks that disappoint relative to analysts’ forecasts. Even against the backdrop of lousy overall returns for Growth since last summer, growth traps have managed to underperform the broad Growth universe by their largest margin for any comparable period in history. ■ We believe the Equity Dislocation opportunity is still incredibly strong. The chart below shows the valuation of U.S. Value stocks relative to U.S. Growth stocks through history; it is normalized such that 1 is fair value. GMO launched the Equity Dislocation Strategy in October 2020 to exploit the bubble in Growth stocks. At that time, U.S. Value was at 53% of fair value, 2nd percentile relative to history. The only time Value had been more attractive relative to Growth was the height of the tech bubble. While the Value/Growth spread has reverted since then, we believe considerable potential remains. As of May 31, 2022, this metric stood at 75% of fair value, 11th percentile vs. history. If relative valuations revert to long-term average levels, a long global Value, short global Growth portfolio could generate strong absolute returns from here.

GMO 事件亮点成长股泡沫破裂的最新动态 | 第 2 页杰里米·格兰瑟姆极小值截至 2022 年 5 月

格兰瑟姆先生于 1977 年联合创立了 GMO，目前是 GMO 资产配置团队的成员，担任公司的长期投资策略师，该团队处于第 11 个百分位。他是 GMO 董事会的成员，并曾任职于多家非营利组织的投资委员会。在创立 GMO 之前，格兰瑟姆先生于 1969 年联合创办了 Batterymarch Financial Management，并于 1971 年推荐了商业指数化策略，这被认为是多项“首创”之一。他的投资生涯始于荷兰皇家壳牌公司的经济学家职位。格兰瑟姆先生在英国谢菲尔德大学获得本科学位，并在哈佛商学院获得工商管理硕士学位。他是美国艺术与科学院院士，持有英国颁发的 CBE 勋章，并曾获得卡内基慈善奖章。

GMO EVENT HIGHLIGHTS Update on the Bursting Bubble in Growth Stocks | p2 Jeremy Grantham Mr. Grantham co-founded VALUE IS EXTREMELY CHEAP GMO in 1977 and is a Relative Valuation of Cheapest 50% of U.S. member of GMO’s Asset May 2022 1.4 Allocation team, serving 11th Percentile 1.3 as the firm’s long-term investment strategist. He is 1.2 a member of the GMO Board of Directors and has 1.1 also served on the investment boards of several 1.0 non-profit organizations. Prior to GMO’s founding, Mr. 0.9 Stock Market vs. Expensive Less Average Grantham was co-founder of Batterymarch Financial 0.8 Management in 1969 where he recommended 0.7 commercial indexing in 1971, one of several claims 0.6 to being first. He began his investment career as 0.5 an economist with Royal Dutch Shell. Mr. Grantham earned his undergraduate degree from the University 0.4 of Sheffield (U.K.) and an M.B.A. from Harvard 0.3 Business School. He is a member of the Academy of 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 Arts and Sciences, holds a CBE from the UK and is a recipient of the Carnegie Medal for Philanthropy.

截至 2022 年 5 月 31 日 | 来源：GMO 综合估值指标由市销率、市毛利润率、市净率和赛蒙·哈里斯构成。哈里斯先生是经济账面价值的主管。价值股与成长股数据均基于过去 12 个月滚动切片。GMO 全球股票团队。

As of 5/31/2022 | Source: GMO Composite Valuation Measure is composed of price/sales, prices/gross profit, price/book, and price/ Simon Harris Mr. Harris is the head of economic book. Value and Growth groups are both sliced over 12 months. GMO’s Global Equity team.

在西蒙于 GMO 工作的几十年里，他积累了丰富的经验，曾负责投资组合再平衡管理、量化研究，并抓住全球市场估值极端的机会。他曾担任英国股票团队负责人，直至该团队与全球股票团队合并。在此之前，他还曾担任 GMO 英国有限公司的联席首席执行官。1989 年加入 GMO 之前，他在伦敦城市大学获得数学学士学位。哈里斯先生是特许证券与投资协会的会士。随着投资机会的演变，该策略将利用团队在量化研究方面的专长，聚焦全球市场的估值极端点。客户既将此策略用作对冲风险投资和成长型股票敞口的工具，也视其为一项颇具吸引力的独立回报机会。

In his decades at GMO, Simon has had extensive ■ As the opportunity set evolves, the Strategy will capitalize on rebalancing portfolio management, quantitative research, and opportunities to focus on the valuation extremes across global markets. team leadership experience including as the head of the UK Equity team prior to its merger with the Global ■ Clients have implemented this Strategy both as a hedge for venture capital and Equity team. Previously, he also served as co-CEO of Growth equity exposure as well as a compelling stand-alone return opportunity. GMO UK Ltd. Prior to joining GMO in 1989, he earned his BSc in Mathematics from The City University (London). Mr. Harris is a Fellow of The Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment.