李录2006年在哥伦比亚商学院演讲
李录 2006 年在哥伦比亚大学的讲座 李录是伯克希尔·哈撒韦可能的首席投资官人选。塔里克·阿里（《街头资本家》博主）最近发布了李录 2006 年在哥伦比亚大学讲座的笔记。
Li Lu's talk at Columbia 2006 Li Lu is a possible Berkshire Hathaway CIO candidate. Tariq Ali (The Street Capitalist) recently posted his notes from Lu's lecture at Columbia in 2006.
李录 上周末是伯克希尔·哈撒韦（纽交所代码：BRK.A / BRK.B）的股东大会。在问答环节的某个时刻，一位提问者问沃伦·巴菲特，伯克希尔的首席投资官候选人目前情况如何。查理·芒格提到，他特别亲近的一位候选人，在 2009 年以零杠杆实现了 200% 的收益。有些人认为，芒格所指的人就是李录——正是这位基金经理，让芒格和巴菲特注意到了比亚迪。
Li Lu This past weekend was the Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A / BRK.B) annual shareholder meeting. At one point during the Q&A, a questioner asked Warren Buffett about the status of Berkshire’s CIO candidates. Charlie Munger remarked that one candidate who he is particular close with was up 200% in 2009 with 0 leverage. Some people think that the person Munger is referring to is Li Lu, a fund manager who turned Munger and Buffett onto BYD.
吕向阳个人持有比亚迪至少 2% 的股份，而比亚迪在 2009 年上涨了 400%。除了这一持仓外，我对他的其他投资一无所知，但我知道他极度信奉集中、高确信的持仓策略。如果情况确实如此，那么比亚迪的惊人业绩必然对他 2009 年的回报贡献巨大，这或许让他实现了全年 200% 的收益。
Lu personally owns at least 2% of BYD, which rose 400% in 2009. I don’t know anything about his investments beyond that one position, but I know he is a huge believer in taking concentrated, high conviction positions. If that is the case here, BYD’s spectacular results must have contributed a lot to his returns for 2009 which may make a 200% for the year possible.
以下是李路（Lu）的简要生平：李路 1966 年生于中国。他曾在南京大学就读，后赴美国，在哥伦比亚大学同时获得三个学位（文学士、法学博士、工商管理硕士）。毕业后，他在一家投资银行工作，直至 1997 年创立喜马拉雅资本管理公司（Himalaya Capital Management）。该公司目前管理着 LL Investment Partners 和 Himalaya Capital Ventures 两只基金，分别专注于公开交易证券和风险投资。李路于 2001 年被世界经济论坛评为“全球明日领袖”，1998 年被阿斯彭研究所评为“亨利·克朗学者”。他是外交关系委员会和青年总裁组织的成员。
Here is a brief bio on Lu: Li Lu was born in China in 1966. He attended Nanjing University in China and later came to the U.S., and earned three degrees (BA, JD, MBA) simultaneously from Columbia University. After graduation, he worked in an investment bank until 1997, when he founded Himalaya Capital Management, which today manages both LL Investment Partners and Himalaya Capital Ventures, funds focused on publicly traded securities and venture capital. Li Lu was named a global leader for tomorrow by the World Economic Forum in 2001, and a Henry Crown fellow by the Aspen Institute in 1998. He is a member of Council on Foreign Relations and Young Presidents’ Organization.
《财富》：巴恩斯托姆·格林
关于吕的投资风格，公开信息并不多。但我想分享一些他在 2006 年给哥伦比亚商学院讲座时的笔记。这些都是转述，所以别当成原话引用，甚至可能有些地方不准确。不过，我相信你会发现这些笔记很有洞见，尤其对于提升你自己作为分析师和投资者的能力。就算吕不是伯克希尔·哈撒韦的首席投资官人选，他也是一个工作态度极其认真的投资者，我们都能从他身上学到东西。
Fortune: Barnstorm Green There isn’t a whole lot of information about Lu’s investing style out there. But I thought I would share some notes from a lecture he gave to Columbia Business School back in 2006. All of this is paraphrased, so don’t take anything as a direct quote and there may even be some inaccuracies. Still, I believe you will find these notes insightful, especially with respect to improving your own abilities as an analyst and investor. Even if Lu is not a Berkshire Hathaway CIO candidate, he is an investor with a tremendous work ethic that we could all learn from.
以下是陆教授讲座中我的笔记：2006 年哥伦比亚商学院的李录讲座——15 年前，李录偶然走进了一场沃伦·巴菲特的讲座。那一刻他豁然开朗，意识到自己可以在投资领域做点什么。
Below are my notes from Lu’s lecture: Li Lu at Columbia Business School – 2006 -15 years ago, Lu was accidentally brought in to a lecture by Warren Buffett. Had epiphany moment, Lu thought he could do something in the investment business.
当时，卢刚逃离中国，人生地不熟。身无分文，债台高筑，为在美国谋生而发愁。
-At the time, Lu had just escaped China. Did not know very many people. No money, deep in debt. Worried about making a living in the US.
在巴菲特演讲的过程中，有一段话让他对股市的看法发生了彻底改变。
-In the middle of Buffett speech, made him think differently about the stock market.
路越想越觉得这事他能干。
-The more Lu thought about it, the more he thought it was something he could do.
价值投资者将自己视为企业的所有者。因此，他们的财富会随着企业本质的好坏而起伏。
-Value investors see themselves as owners of a business. Therefore, fortunes are up and down with the nature of the business.
- 你要求有安全边际。
-You demand a margin of safety.
价值投资者的三个特质：1. 首先，你别把自己当成一个整天买进卖出证券的文书处理员。你得把自己看作企业的真正所有者。
3 Traits of a Value Investor: 1. Basically, you don’t think of yourself as a paper shuffler who constantly buys and sells securities. You think of yourself as a real owner of the business.
2\. 你只拥有企业的一小部分，所以要求极大的安全边际。
2. You only own a small piece of the business, so you demand a huge margin of safety.
3. 因为你把自己看作所有者，而不是频繁交易者，你会认为其他人都不同——就像本杰明·格雷厄姆笔下的市场先生谈价值投资——在所有资产中，只有不到 5% 由价值投资者管理，在投资界这确实是个少数派。
3. Because you think of yourself as an owner, not trading all the time, you think everyone else is different — like Ben Graham’s Mr. Market On Value Investing -Under 5% of all assets are run under value investors, a real minority in the investment world.
股票市场是为另外 95% 的人设立的，那里既是你们的机遇，也是你们的挑战。
-The stock market is created for the other 95% of people, that is where your opportunity and challenge is.
卢在听到巴菲特的演讲时，就是这个教训一直刻在他脑海里。
-That was one lesson that stuck in Lu’s mind when listening to Buffett’s lecture.
最大挑战：弄清楚你是那 5% 还是那 95%。做其他 95% 的人做的事很诱人，情绪上要站在那 5% 里极其困难，但价值投资者的回报通常更高。这笔钱确实是为交易者准备的，他们倾向于积累更多资产。
-Biggest challenge: understand whether you are the 5% or the 95% -It is tempting to do what the other 95% of people do. Emotionally very difficult to be in the 5%, but value investors typically have better returns. The money is really for traders and they tend to amass more assets.
-5% 的会获得惊人回报，但 95% 的资金可能始终流向别处。
-5% have a spectacular return, but 95% of money probably always resides to somewhere else.
认识你自己。你必将经受考验。届时你必须扪心自问：你到底是不是价值投资者。
-Understand who you are. You will be tested. You will have to ask yourself whether you are or aren’t a value investor.
如果你是一名价值投资者，那多半是基因突变的结果，而且能坦然接受自己属于少数派。这对人类来说并不自然。你必须习惯独处。你必须接受这样一个理念：你之所以正确，是因为你的理由和证据，而不是因为别人同意你。
-If you are a value investor, you are probably genetically mutated and comfortable being in the minority. This is unnatural to human beings. You have to be comfortable being by yourself. You have to adopt the idea that you are right because your reason and evidence, not because others agree with you.
你很可能把大部分时间花在做学术研究者而不是职业投资人上。你是个研究者或记者，拥有永不满足的好奇心。你试图弄清楚一切是如何运作的。
-You will probably spend most of your time being an academic researcher rather than a professional. You are a researcher or journalist, with insatiable curiosity. You are trying to figure out how everything works.
你懂得越多，作为投资者就越出色。
-The more you know, the better you are as an investor.
政治、科学、技术、文学、诗歌——一切事物都可能影响商业，并为你提供帮助。
-Politics, science, technology, literature, poetry, everything can affect businesses and help you.
偶尔，你能发现一些别人没有的洞见，这些洞见会给你带来巨大的启发。
-Occasionally you can find insights that will give you tremendous insights that other people don’t have.
那你就要判断这家企业是否便宜。管理层好不好？还有哪些因素？这个机会为什么存在？
-Then you find if the business is cheap. Is the management good? What else? Why is the opportunity there?
1997 年底创立基金。经历过相当惨痛的事件：亚洲金融危机、科技泡沫。
-Started fund in late 1997. Been through really traumatic events: Asian Financial Crisis, Tech Bubble.
1998 年秋天：卢的搜索过程非常泛泛。他迷上了《价值线》，喜欢从头到尾把整本读完。这是最好的教育方式——如果你想对公司有百科全书般的了解，就该这么做。一页一页地翻过去，帮助极大。
-Fall of 1998: Lu’s search process is very general. Got hooked on value line, loved to read the whole thing from beginning to end. The best kind of education, you should do this if you want encyclopedic knowledge of companies. Go through it page after page, it is enormously helpful.
卢第一件事就是查新低清单。新低市盈率、市净率，等等。
-First thing Lu checks is new low list. New low P/Es, P/Bs, etc.
——不关心某样东西过去在哪里交易过。
-Does not care where something traded before.
首先看估值。如果估值不合适，就不会超出这个范围。
-First looks at valuation. If the valuation doesn’t fit, doesn’t go beyond it.
如果你看到一家公司的市净率很低，要问——那账上到底有什么？那账到底值多少钱？
-If you see a low P/B ratio, ask – What is in the book? How much is the book?
跨行业审视企业时，百科全书式的知识储备大有裨益。
-Encyclopedic knowledge is helpful when looking across different industries.
看税前和息前利润。从无杠杆的角度看。算出投入这家企业的资本总额。看投入资本回报率（ROIC）。
-Look at pre-tax and pre-interest earnings. Look from an un-leveraged basis. Figure out how much capital is deployed in the business. Look at ROIC.
示例：Timberland——先花 5 秒钟扫一眼这家公司。Timberland。它的交易价格大约等于清理后的账面价值，资产主要是有形流动资产、营运资金，外加 1 亿美元的房地产。投入资本 2 亿美元，回报 1 亿美元。
Example: Timberland -Start by giving a 5 second look at the business. Timberland. The business is trading around clean book value, consisting mostly of tangible liquid assets, working capital, plus 100M in real estate. Deployed capital is 200M with 100M return.
然后，调查一下这家企业为什么衰败、变得便宜。想一想，如果你以那个价格拥有这家企业的全部，你会怎么想。
-Then check why the business fell apart and became cheap. Think if you had owned the entire business at that price.
那时正值亚洲金融危机高潮，他们在亚洲的销售额断崖式下跌。任何与亚洲有业务关联的企业都在崩塌。你可以试着了解别人对此的看法。你不一定要听从他们的建议，但或许想知道别人在看什么。
-At the time, was the height of the Asian Financial Crisis, saw their sales falling off the cliff in Asia. Any thing with exposure to Asia was falling apart. Try to check what other people are thinking about this. You may not listen to their advice but you may want to know what other people are looking at.
- 当时没有其他分析师在跟踪 Timberland 这只股票。
-Timberland had no other analysts covering it.
为什么没有报道？
-Why no coverage?
回顾过去多年的业务表现。林地业务一直在增长，利润相当可观，且不需要依赖金融市场。这是一家家族企业，持有 40% 的股份，控制着 98% 的投票权。
-Look at business across years. Timberland has been growing, pretty profitable, did not need financial markets. Family owned. Owns 40% controlling 98% vote.
立刻，这对大部分人来说就是扫兴的事。你可以快速搜一下数据。
-Immediately, that is a turnoff to most people. You can do a quick data search.
你需要带着一颗充满好奇、活跃开放的大脑去提问，并寻找答案。
-You need to have a curious, active mind to ask questions and find answers.
- 林氏地产掌握了大部分投票权，没有分析师覆盖，还有一堆股东诉讼。如果你是剩下那 95% 投资行业里的人，你可能会说，管理层大概在榨干这家公司。
-Timberland had most of the vote, no analyst coverage, a bunch of shareholder lawsuits. If you were a member of the other 95% of the investment business you might say maybe management is milking the business.
- 下载每一份法庭诉讼文件。去读它。你必须拥有一个极其好奇的头脑，才能搞清楚到底发生了什么。每一次都深挖下去。阅读一切。
-Download every court document lawsuit. Read it. You NEED a very curious mind to figure out WHAT is happening. Dig every single time. READ EVERYTHING.
第一次看财务报表只需要几分钟。然后开始收集问题，做深入研究。
-The first time, it takes a couple minutes to look over financials. Then gather questions and do deep research.
大多数诉讼来自 Timberland 未能达成业绩指引，惹恼了投资者，进而惹恼了公司老板。于是他们决定不再跟华尔街沟通。这跟压榨公司或欺诈无关——他们不是骗子。
-Most lawsuits came from Timberland missing guidance, annoying investors, which annoyed the owner of the business. They decided to stop talking to Wall Street. So it was not about milking the business or fraud. They were not crooks.
沃伦·巴菲特：你怎么判断他们是不是好的管理者？是不是正派的人？
-How do you determine if they are good managers? Decent people?
像个调查记者那样去行动。大多数企业主都会留下线索供你追踪，让你看清他们如何应对不同局面。大多数职业经理人不会把这视为分内之事，但你是那 5% 中的一份子。
-Act like an investigative journalist. Most business owners leave a trail for you to follow and see how they deal with different situations. Most professional managers would not see this as part of their job, but YOU are part of their 5%.
去他们的社区，拜访他们认识的人，去他们的教堂、犹太会堂，向他们朋友和邻居介绍自己。花尽可能多的时间去了解这些生意人做过什么、邻居如何评价他们，从而准确掌握他们的为人，这样做是值得的。
-Go to their community, visit people they know, their Church, their Synagogue, introduce yourself to their friends and neighbors. It is worth it to spend as much time as possible, to find what these business people have done and what their neighbors say about them to accurately get an idea of their personality.
-那个父亲看起来是个淳朴正派的人，只念过高中。儿子念了商学院，虽然跟老卢年纪相仿，却已是那家公司的首席运营官。老卢看他在哪些公司董事会任职，发现他们有一位共同的朋友。于是他设法跟那儿子进了同一家董事会，很快成了朋友。这才意识到，他们都是素质很高、很有道德的生意人。
-The father seemed like a simple, decent guy, just a high school graduate. the son went to business school, was already COO of the company even though he was Lu’s age. Lu saw what boards the son sat on, and noticed that they had a mutual friend. Managed to get himself on the board with the son and became friends quickly. Came to realize these where high quality, very ethical businessmen.
说到这里，他回头一看，股价还是趴在低位。于是认定自己没漏掉什么。另外那 95% 的人，要么是没做够功课看不出这点，要么是受某种机构强制力（institutional imperative）的制约，让他们无法买入。
-After all that, saw the stock was still trading low. Decided he did not miss anything. The other 95% may not have done enough research to see this or have some kind of institutional imperative that prevents them from owning.
如果你不是一位好的分析师，你永远成不了一位好的投资者。
-If you are not a good analyst, you will never be a good investor.
但我们决定买入。买多少呢？假设你有 900 美元。剩下的 95% 会拿去买很小的仓位，50 个基点。你需要集中持仓，一个 200 美元的仓位。想想你做了多少功课。卢走访了所有门店，观察利润率是如何提升的——当时正好刮起一阵风潮，孩子们追捧那双鞋。他们的亚洲业务占比很小，对盈利的影响不到 5%。
-But we decide to buy. How much do we buy? Imagine having $900. The other 95% will take tiny positions, 50 basis points. You need to use concentration, a $200 position. Think of how much work you did. Lu visited all the stores to see how margins improved – they had a fad going on where kids wanted the shoes. Their asian business is tiny, reduced earnings by less than 5%.
路在天伯伦（Timberland）上投了一大笔钱。接下来两年发生了什么？股价涨了 700%。完全靠盈利推动。没什么真正的风险——市盈率从 5 倍涨到 15 倍，同时盈利每年增长 30%。这就是复利的力量。
-Lu put a ton into Timberland. What happened after next 2 years? Stock went up 700%. Propelled by earnings. No real risk – went from trading at 5x earnings to 15x with earnings growing 30% a year. It adds up.
做一个学习机器——当投资机会来临时，你必须抓住它。日夜投入，这样你才能迅速行动。把所有事情做完整，但要做快。你必须训练自己，随时准备抓住机会。
Be a Learning Machine -When an investment opportunity comes, you have to seize it. Devote day and night so you can act quickly. Do everything complete but do it fast. You have to train yourself to jump on opportunity.
当机会出现时，你能够嗅到它。做到这一点的唯一方法，就是通过训练自己，一页一页地阅读财务报告。
-When opportunity presents itself you can smell it. The only way to do that is by training yourself and reading page after page of financial report.
-查阅标普手册研究海外股票。
-Uses S&P manuals for viewing foreign stocks.
作为股东，不要去想每股层面的信息。
-As an owner, don’t think about per share information.
用你的脑子，看股票手册时，每页真的只用 5 分钟。别用计算器，用心算。
-Use your brain, when looking at stock manuals, each page should really only take 5 minutes. Don’t use calculators. Use mental math.
例如：一家韩国公司，市值 6000 万美元，税前利润 3100 万美元，大约是税前利润的 2 倍。
Example: Korean Company -60M market cap, pre-tax earnings of 31M, roughly 2x pre-tax earnings.
- 账面价值 2.3 亿美元，是什么构成了账面价值？如果你作为所有者，看的是：固定资产、营运资本，别指望商誉。
-Book value of 230M, what constitutes book value? If you are an owner, look at: fixed assets, working capital, don’t count on goodwill.
以 6000 万美元市值、3000 万美元税前利润、2.4 亿美元账面价值（其中 1.8 亿美元为固定资产）来看，这可能很便宜。
-Basically you see with 60M in market cap, 30M in pre-tax, $240M in book value ($180M in fixed assets) -It might be cheap.
- 先确定盈利是多少。看账面数字。看营运资本。
-Determine what the earnings is. The book. The working capital.
- 运用常识、常理去思考生意本身。
-Use common sense, common logic and think about the business.
大多数员工从未上过商学院，但卢发现他们更容易培训。
-Most employees never went to business school, Lu finds they are easier to train.
在 7000 万美元的流动资产中，全部是现金；在 1.8 亿美元的固定资产中，他们全资拥有一家酒店，账面记作 3000 万美元，另外持有某百货公司 13% 的股权，账面也记作 3000 万美元。
-Of the 70M in current assets, it is all cash -Of 180M in fixed assets, they own 100% of a hotel, recorded 30M as book. Own 13% of a department store recorded as 30M.
看看这家百货公司，它的市值大约 6 亿美元。13% 的收益就给你大约 8000 万美元。所以账面价值又低估了它 5000 万美元。
-Look up the department store, it roughly has a market cap of 600M. 13% gives you roughly 80M. So the book value undervalues it by another 50M.
- 他们拥有 3 家有线电视公司 15% 的股份，以及一大片房地产。
-They own 15% of 3 cable companies and a whole bunch of real estate.
这家百货公司的状况完全相同：交易价格大致与现金和投资相当，盈利不错，还拥有一大堆资产。结果发现，他们还是全美第二大有线电视运营商——这家百货公司经营得像酒店，不持有库存，更像购物中心。
-The department store has exactly the same profile. Trading roughly around cash and investments, good earnings, and own a whole bunch of assets. Turns out they are the second largest cable operator as well -The department store operates like a hotel, do not take inventory, more like a shopping mall.
-他们按所有商户销售额的顶线收取一定比例的费用。
-They charge a percentage on the top line of all merchant sales.
把这一切加起来：支付 6000 万美元净现金、另加 1 亿美元股票，以及一家价值 3000 万美元的酒店（这家酒店的价值在过去 10 年没变过，而同期房地产市场却在上涨）。我们还去了韩国，考察了酒店和百货商店。
-Put it all together: Paying 60M, 70M in net cash, another 100M in stock, 30M in hotel with a value that has not been changed in last 10 years while real estate market has gone up in 10 years. Went to Korea, looked at hotel and department stores.
最近查了一下周边物业的交易情况，账面价值可能只有实际价值的三分之一甚至更少。不过咱们还是按账面价值算，再加上 1.5 亿美元。把这些加到一起，总资产是 3.2 亿美元，而你只要花 6000 万美元就能买下来，而且每年还能从运营中赚 3000 万美元。
-Checked recent transaction of properties in neighborhood, value is likely 2-3x what is on the book. But take what is on the book anyway, add 150M. Add that to rest and you get 320M in assets that you are paying 60M for and earning 30M annually from operations.
内部人士持股 50%——有不少因素对你有利，但你需要看看本地投资者怎么看。要想股价上涨，他们得买入才行。
-Insiders own 50% -Many factors going in your favor, but you need to look at how local investors see it. They need to be buying it for the price to go up.
- 百货公司股票从 22 美元涨到 100 美元 -这家公司从 12 美元涨到 70 美元左右 -每只都涨了 5 - 6 倍。别光听着，动手去做。
-Department store used to trade at 22 went to 100 -This company was at 12 now trades around 70 -each went up 5-6x Don’t just listen. Do it.
这种方式对投资者来说并不自然。
-This type of an approach is not natural to an investor.
-如果你认为自己的个性适合这个基因变异的池子，觉得这正是你想做的事，那么这里面确实有大钱可赚——本·格雷厄姆已经向巴菲特证明了这一点。你在分析上必须投入大量功夫。
-If you decide your personality fits in with the mutated gene pool, that this is something you might be looking to do, there is a lot of money in it — proven by Ben Graham to Buffett -You have to put in a lot of work into your analysis.
如果你真的感兴趣、用心倾听并且真正去执行，你就能赚很多钱。
-You can make a lot of money if you are really interested, listening, and actually DOING IT.
陆先生从他的价值投资课中受益，随后真正付诸实践，完成了所需的工作。
-Lu benefited from listening to his value investing class and then actually going out and doing the work required.
价值投资并不真的是什么理论，而是关于什么管用。
-Value investing is not really about theory, it is about what works.
年轻的分析师精力充沛且没什么可失去的，所以他们应该去干，把活儿做出来。
-Young analysts have energy and nothing to lose, so they should go and do the work.
在成为一名优秀的投资者之前，你首先要成为一名优秀的分析师。
-Before you become a good investor, you need to be a good analyst.
陆先生说，要成为一名优秀的分析师，你需要两样东西：1. 提供准确且完整的信息。你必须付出额外的努力才能做到。大多数时候，你会独自对抗所有人。如果你对自己所了解的东西没有足够的能力，当情况急转直下、其他人都嘲笑你时，你不可能坚持自己的信念立场。
Lu says you need two things to be a good analyst: 1. Provide accurate and complete information. You have to go to an extra length to get it done. Most of the time you will stand alone against everybody else. If you are not competent about what you know, you cannot possibly take conviction positions when things go into free fall and everybody else is laughing at you.
2\. 大多数钱并非来自那些代表性股票。它们带来的回报并不惊人。你可以走特威迪·布朗/格雷厄姆路线，或者巴菲特/芒格流派。你的回报将来源于少数几只股票。你需要通过持续强烈的好奇心和学习来获得非凡洞察力。
2. Most money is not made in stocks from the examples. They do not provide out-sized returns. You can do the Tweedy Brown/Graham or the Buffett/Munger school. Your returns will come from a handful of stocks. You need tremendous insight by continuous intense curiosity and study.
投资错误——大多数错误源于不准确或不完整的信息。
Investment Mistakes -Most mistakes come from inaccurate or incomplete information.
最大的错误：多数人想要的是两周或一个月的回报。他们希望在下跌市场中自己的持股也能上涨。
-Biggest mistake: most people wanted 2 week or monthly returns. They wanted to go up in down markets.
- 卢最大的错误是偏离了轨道，跟朱利安·罗伯逊合作，开始做空——做空时你必须像交易员一样思考，因为你的下行空间可能是无限的。就像查理·芒格说的——那就像绑着双手去打架。
-Lu’s biggest mistake was straying, was working with Julian Robertson, started shorting — have to think like a trader when you are shorting because your downside can be unlimited. It’s like Charlie Munger says — having your hands tied behind your back while getting into a fight.
错过了以低于现金价值买入一家企业的机会，尽管卢了解管理层且有深刻洞察。那家企业后来涨了 50 到 100 倍。他当时的心态让他就是下不了手去买。
-Missed the opportunity to buy a business below cash, even though Lu knew the management and had great insights. The business subsequently went up 50-100x. Could not bring himself to buy it because of his mindset at the time.
当你对自己的工作还没完成却又足够喜欢时，你就容易犯错。这时你会开始赌概率，而不是做真正的分析。
-You make a mistake when you have not finished your work but like it enough. You start betting on probabilities instead of real analysis.
不断寻找想法——在你的一生中，你可能只有 5-10 次关键的顿悟时刻。而顿悟只能来自持续学习。找一家美国企业，再找它在亚洲的对标公司。有些企业我研究了 15 年。你必须搞清楚那家企业是什么，它是如何运转的，这样你才能在挥棒时充满信念。如果做不到这一点，你就无法获得巨大的超额回报。
Constantly search for ideas -In your life, you may only have 5-10 key moments of insight. You only get it from continuous learning. Find an American business and then find the Asian counterpart. Some businesses studied for 15 years. You need to know what that business is, how it ticks, so you can swing with conviction. If you cannot do that you will not make huge out-sized returns.
如果你按照本·格雷厄姆或特威迪·布朗的做法去做，你能获得 15% 到 20% 的回报，但无法取得巴菲特那样的巨额回报。
-If you do what Ben Graham or Tweedy Brown does, you will make 15-20% returns but you wont make the huge returns of Buffett.
最伟大的创意能带来一万倍的回报。
-The biggest ideas can give 10,000x returns.
机会并不好找。它们需要大量因素汇聚在一起——查理·芒格说的“合奏效应”（lollapalooza）。你需要有一整套条件同时发挥作用，让你既有洞察力，又愿意下注。
-Opportunities are not easy to find. They require a lot of factors to come together – Charlie Munger’s lollapalooza. You need a whole bunch of things working together where you have the insight and are willing to bet.
这就是驱动卢在商界前行的动力。
-This is what drives Lu in business.
卢最初学的是物理、数学、法律、经济，后来对其他学科也产生了兴趣。他妻子是生物学博士，他从她那里学到了很多。
-Lu started in physics, mathematics, law, economics, got interested in other subjects. Wife has a PhD in biology, he has learned a lot from her.
从一切事物中学习，保持极度的好奇心——最终你总会撞上一个大机会。
-Learn from everything, be intensely curious -Eventually you will stumble into one big opportunity.
- 在此期间，你还会偶然遇到像 Timberland 这类还算不错的投资机会。
-In the meantime, you will stumble into Timberland style investments which aren’t bad.
可能会有年份完全没有机会，然后又会接连出现大量机会。
-There might be years without opportunities, then years with a lot of opportunities.
-这取决于你手上能拿到什么。
-Depends on what becomes available to you.
它们不会匀速到来，不会像每周固定来一个主意那样。
-They do not come in a steady pace, not like once a week an idea.
6 年里，卢大概只产生了 3-4 个绝妙的想法。但你会变得越来越好，可供你把握的机会也会越来越多，因为你的分析速度会越来越快。
-In 6 years, Lu had maybe 3-4 great ideas. But you get progressively better and better, improving the amount of opportunities for you since you will be quicker at your analysis.
每天都要学点新东西。一年下来，你就能学到很多。
-Go through every day by learning something. In a year you have to learn a great deal.
当陆教授阅读生物学、物理学、历史时，他全是在寻找思想。一旦某个想法跳出来，他就会全身心投入其中。其余时间他与妻子和孩子一起度过，也从他们身上学习，尤其是通过观察人类认知如何发展——这极其重要。
-When Lu reads biology, physics, history, it is all searching for ideas. If one idea jumps out, it is all Lu does. Rest of the time is spent with wife and kids and Lu learns from them too, especially with seeing how human cognition develops which is enormously important.
李录的投资清单：1. 这东西便宜吗？
Li Lu’s Investing Checklist: 1. Is that cheap?
2. 这是一门好生意吗？
2. Is it a good business?
二、谁来掌管公司？
2. Who is running it?
3. 我错过了什么？
3. What did I miss?
-卢在检查清单时会想“我漏掉了什么”，这个环节深受心理因素影响。这种认知上的习惯很早就形成了，卢是从和女儿们的互动中学到的。
-Lu goes through the checklist, ‘what did I miss’ is greatly affected by psychology. This kind of cognition happens early on and Lu learns it from interacting with his girls.
价值投资者的三大特征：1. 企业主思维 2. 时间跨度差异 3. 要求极大的安全边际
像企业主一样思考 —— 这一切都源于一件事：你本身就是企业主。你无法强行推动管理层更迭，所以你需要安全边际。你拥有长远的时间跨度，因为你的思考方式与企业主如出一辙。
Three characteristics of a value investor: 1. Business owner mentality 2. Difference in time horizon 3. Demand a huge margin of safety Think like a Business Owner -It all comes from one thing, that you are a business owner. You cannot force management changes, so you demand a margin of safety. You have a long time horizon because you think like an owner.
- 可又为什么要碰股票市场呢？股票市场是为那些会做梦的人而设的。这就是为什么 95% 的人从不买入价值投资——人性阻止了他们这么做。
-But why dabble with stock market? Stock markets are made for people who can dream. That is why 95% of people never buy into value investing. Human nature prevents it.
你不属于股市，但你必须理解它的视角，才能给自己正确定位。如果你真的像企业所有者一样思考，你最终会离开资产管理行业，去经营一家真正的公司。这就是巴菲特和芒格离开这个行业的原因。
-You do not belong to the stock market but you have to understand its perspective to position yourself properly. If you are truly think like a business owner, you will eventually leave the asset management business and run a real company. That is why Buffett and Munger left it.
-或者你会成为一名私募股权投资家。
-Or you become a private equity investor.
股票市场为之设计的人群，骨子里就有缺陷。交易者难免因恐惧或贪婪而犯错，他们永远会为价值投资者腾出空间。
-The people who the stock market is designed for are fundamentally flawed people. Traders are bound to make mistakes due to fear or greed. They will always make room for value investors.
过去伯克希尔严格遵循“生意好就卖”的原则。但如今，陆（指查理·芒格）有时认为自己对该生意有了足够的洞察，这让他相信，这门生意的基本面逐年改善的概率对他有利。
-Used to be strict about selling with great business. Now, sometimes Lu feels he has insights about the business that allows him to believe the probabilities are in his favor for the business actually improving year after year.
这就是优秀企业中的分配法则。领军企业的表现极为出色。
-That is the law of distribution in good businesses. The leaders perform spectacularly well.
卖出会让你缴纳巨额税款，而且你可能再也遇不到那么好的买入价格了。
-Selling makes you pay a huge amount of tax and you might not get that good buying price again.
如果一项生意能产生 50% 到 100% 的 ROIC，那么数学计算很快就会变得非常有趣。
-If a business can generate 50-100% ROIC, the mathematics get interesting very quickly.
- 警告：你必须非常有信心。投资银行家用胡扯来推算到无穷远。你不可能预测那么久。能让你做如此长期预测的机会少之又少。
-Caveat: you have to be very confident. Investment bankers use BS and project into infinity. You cannot project that long. There are only a few opportunities where you can project that long.
如果你足够优秀，并且用一生去钻研，在 50 年的职业生涯里，可能只有 5 到 10 次机会能让你自信地预测未来 10 到 20 年的走向。到了那个时候，你根本不想卖出。持有的话，你就不用缴纳资本利得税，所以你相当于是在以 40% 的利率免税复利，而企业则以每年 40% 到 100% 的效率进行资本配置，且方式非常节税。这就是你要做的事。
-If you are good, and spend your entire lifetime studying, across 50 year career maybe 5-10 opportunities where you can confidently project the next 10-20 years. At that point, you don’t want to sell. By holding you don’t pay the tax on capital gains, so you are really compounding 40% interest free, the business is deploying the capital at 40-100% a year in a tax efficient manner. That is what you do.
你必须识别出那些一年比一年更强大的企业。
-You have to identify businesses that are getting stronger and stronger every year.
是什么让一家企业比别的更成功？为什么它们能比别的公司赚到越来越多的钱？
-What makes one business more successful than others? Why are they making more and more money compared to others?
唯一能找到这种公司的方法，就是研究那些已经站稳脚跟的企业。
-The only way you can find that is by studying the ones that are established.
要找就找伟大的企业，而不是只看它是不是由沃伦·巴菲特拥有。伟大企业的一个例子：彭博通讯社（Bloomberg LP）。它的产品优于竞争对手，转换成本极高。彭博是个绝佳案例研究——它几乎是从天而降的。
-Look for great businesses, not just businesses owned by Warren Buffett Example of a great business: Bloomberg LP -Product was superior to others, high switching costs -Bloomberg is a fabulous case study, it came out of no where.
一点点蚕食市场份额，跨越里程碑，成为垄断者——在某个节点，一旦日常工作中高度依赖它，用户的转换成本变得极高，于是赢家通吃。
-Gained market share little by little, crossed a milestone point, became a monopoly -At a certain point, after being highly relied upon for daily work, the switching costs become to high so winner takes all.
假设你有机会在行业发展的早期阶段就看清其演变路径。在某个时点，它们会跨越那条线——也许是在这项技术被引入所有企业的时候。在那个临界点到来时，一家上市公司恰好处于有利位置，能通过成为垄断型企业而从中受益。
-Suppose you have an opportunity to see how an industry evolves early on. At a certain point they cross the line -Maybe when introduced to all businesses. There is a time when that line gets crossed and a public company is poised to benefit by becoming a monopoly business.
为什么微软能胜过苹果？因为他们一点点蚕食了苹果 100% 的市场份额。
-Why did Microsoft succeed over Apple? Little by little they eroded Apple’s 100% market share.
办公室用的是 Windows 系统。今天——你有不用彭博的选项吗？
-Offices were using Windows. Today – do you have a choice of not using Bloomberg?
彭博社几乎每个月都来，问你 在做什么、如何使用他们的系统。彭博终端有成千上万的功能，他们不给你手册——就是要在视觉上把你吸引住，让你产生行为上的依赖，就算他们涨价你也不在乎每年付几万美元，因为你别无选择。他们会不断回头找你，因为他们知道你是交易员，想给你提供更多服务，好让你彻底上瘾。
-Bloomberg visits almost every month and asks what you do, how you use the system. Bloomberg terminals have tens of thousands of functions, they don’t give you a manual -They want you visually hooked so it is a behavioral connection and you don’t mind paying tens of thousands of years where you don’t have a choice if they raise prices -They keep coming back to you because they know you are a trader and want to provide you with more services so you are hooked.
这就是为什么彭博（Bloomberg）是一门极好的生意——因为你被它“钩住”了。想想看，你要换掉它，或者竞争对手想推出一个类似的产品来挑战它。你怎么跟它竞争？
-That is why Bloomberg is a fabulous business because you get hooked. Think about switching from that or a competitor coming up with a rival product. How do you compete with that?
— 老陆不知道。假设你知道那个拐点，你会投资吗？老陆会在那个节点投资彭博。
-Lu doesn’t know. Suppose you know the inflexion point. Do you want to invest? Lu would invest in Bloomberg at that point.
— 你需要洞察力。研究每一门生意。它们或多或少都有这种动态特征。
-You need insight. Study every business. They all have more or less this type of dynamic.
— 作为一名优秀的财务分析师，你的工作就是时时刻刻研究那门生意。观察那些趋势。
-Your job as a good financial analyst is to study that business ALL THE TIME. Observe those trends.
— 一生中，也许你会遇到一次那样的机会。
-Once in your life, maybe you will find that opportunity.
— 为什么彭博不想卖？他不需要卖。
-Why doesn’t Bloomberg want to sell? He doesn’t need to sell.
— 当你拥有那样的生意时，你根本不需要卖。
-When you have a business like that, you don’t need to sell.
— 老陆做过很多私人投资，比如 CapitalIQ，它复制了彭博的商业模式。采用同样的方法，还在工程服务领域做了投资。
-Lu has made many private investments, ex: CapitalIQ, which copies Bloomberg’s business model. Same method with an investment in an engineering service.
— 老陆喜欢尽可能多地了解。他喜欢和人交朋友，比如和 Timberland 的 CEO，他的儿子后来实际上成了老陆基金的投资者。
-Lu likes to know as much as he can. He likes to be friends with people, with Timberland, the CEO and his son actually became investors in Lu’s fund.
— 你可以从日常的商业决策中学习和观察，并了解其中的动态。
-You can learn and observe from everyday business decisions and learn dynamics.
— 没有什么是恒久不变的。一切都在变化，这就是为什么你必须不断学习。
-Nothing is constant. Everything is changing that is why you have to keep learning.
— 生意在变，微软如今也面临威胁。
-Businesses change, Microsoft has threats now.
— 你需要一个活跃的头脑，这样你才能随时准备行动，并凭借你的洞察力抓住机会。
-You need an active mind, so you are prepared to act and you can seize opportunity due to your insights.