（肥）尾摇狗：揭秘股市表现
瑞士信贷第一波士顿公司
CREDIT SUISSE FIRST BOSTON CORPORATION
美洲
Americas
迈克尔·J·莫布森 1 212 325 3108 [email protected]
Michael J. Mauboussin 1 212 325 3108 [email protected]
鲍勃·希勒 1 212 325 4341 [email protected]
Bob Hiler 1 212 325 4341 [email protected]
帕特里克·J·麦卡锡 1 212 325 2657 [email protected] 股票研究 价值基础策略 1999 年 2 月 4 日
Patrick J. McCarthy 1 212 325 2657 [email protected] Equity Research Value-Based Strategy February 4, 1999
摇狗的那条（肥）尾巴
The (Fat) Tail that Wags the Dog
揭开股票市场表现之谜
Demystifying the Stock Market’s Performance
第 8 卷
Volume 8
• 自 1995 年以来，标普工业股的市值加权投入资本回报率（ROIC）已上升 10 个百分点。
• The S&P Industrial’s market-capitalization-weighted ROIC has risen 10 percentage points since 1995.
• 指数在回报率与成分构成两方面的深层变化，令历史相对市盈率倍数不再适用。
• Underlying changes in both the returns and composition of the indices render historical relative P/E multiples inappropriate.
• 在原本近乎正态的 ROIC 分布中出现了一条“肥尾”，其推手是“新经济”企业。
• A “fat tail” has emerged in what had been a near-normal distribution of ROICs, driven by “New Economy” businesses.
• 近年来标普 500 指数的成分构成发生了深刻变化：希望跟上指数步伐的投资者，需要配置
• The composition of the S&P 500 has changed profoundly in recent years: investors that hope to keep pace with the index need exposure
科技股。
to technology stocks.
引言 1998 年，标普 500 指数连续第三年跑赢了 90% 的主动型基金经理。1998 年对组合经理而言，跑赢指数尤其艰难，因为标普 500 指数成分股中只有 28% 的涨幅超过了指数本身。
Introduction In 1998, the S&P 500 index outperformed 90% of active money managers for the third straight year. Outperforming the index was particularly challenging for port-folio managers in 1998 as only 28% of the stocks in the S&P 500 appreciated more than the index.
投资者尤其在两个问题上感到吃力。其一是市场的狭窄——少数几只大盘股主导着标普基准的表现。其二主要针对价值投资者，他们拒绝持有科技股。科技股一路高歌，对标普近年来令人瞩目的涨幅贡献甚巨。
Investors are struggling with two issues in particular. The first is the narrowness of the market—a few large stocks are dictating the performance of the S&P benchmark. The second applies mostly to value investors, who disavow owning technology names. Technology stocks have roared, contributing significantly to the S&P’s impressive gains in recent years.
我们的分析表明，许多大市值成长型公司的估值倍数扩张，其支撑来自投入资本回报率（ROIC）的急剧上升。尽管市场估值看上去很高，但市场倍数掩盖了这样一个事实：某些公司的 ROIC 出现了深刻的提升，而“平均”意义上的公司并未如此。因此，相对市盈率倍数——华尔街的一项支柱工具——正变得越来越具误导性。
Our analysis suggests that the multiple expansion of many large capitalization growth companies is underpinned by a sharp rise in their returns on invested capital (ROIC). While the market’s valuation appears high, market multiples obscure the fact that certain companies have seen profound increases in their ROICs while the “average” company has not. Hence, relative P/E multiples—a mainstay on Wall Street—are increasingly misleading.
这些被挑出来的公司为何会有如此戏剧性的 ROIC 上升，以及这些回报能否持续，是显而易见的问题。我们相信，答案在于理解美国经济中的构造性变动：许多企业竞争优势的来源，正从基于资本的战略转向基于知识的战略。由于无形资产很少能在资产负债表上得到准确反映，一些“新经济”公司便展现出了非同寻常的投入资本回报率。此类回报能否持续，取决于进入壁垒、网络经济学、客户锁定以及经济网络的力量。
Why these select companies have seen such dramatic increases in ROIC and whether or not those returns are sustainable are obvious questions. We believe the answer lies in an appreciation for tectonic shifts in the U.S. economy: the source of competitive advantage for many businesses is going from capital-based to knowledge-based strategies. As intangible assets are rarely reflected on the balance sheet accurately, some “New Economy” companies have demonstrated extraordinary returns on invested capital. Sustainability of such returns hinges on entry barriers, network economics, customer lock-in, and the power of economic webs.
本报告分为三部分。第一，我们记录标普工业股市值加权投入资本回报率的趋势，并说明市场倍数如何以及为何越来越不能反映经济现实。第二，我们讨论“肥尾”的出现——即全市场 ROIC 分布右侧的一处隆起。正是这条肥尾，同时扭曲了指数的表现和基于指数的估值比较。最后，我们考察标普 500 指数成分构成的变化，并推测这一变化对基金经理意味着什么。
This report has three parts. First, we document the trend in the market-weighted return on invested capital for the S&P industrials, and show how and why market multiples are less-and-less indicative of economic reality. Second, we discuss the emergence of a “fat tail”—a bump on the right-hand side of a market-wide ROIC distribution. It is this fat tail that is skewing both the performance of the indices and index-based valuation comparisons. Finally, we explore the composition shift in the S&P 500, and speculate about what that shift means for money managers.
市值加权 ROIC 估值从根本上由少数几个驱动因素决定，包括现金流增长、投入资本回报率，以及超额回报的可持续性。
Market-Capitalization-Weighted ROIC Valuation is fundamentally determined by a handful of drivers, including growth in cash flows, returns on invested capital, and sustainability of excess returns.
尤其是 ROIC 与资本成本之间的利差，与股票市场估值高度相关。撇开其他问题不谈，更高的 ROIC 会带来更高的估值。1 由于标普系列指数按市值加权，其表现与估值都偏向于最大的那些公司。因此，观察某一相关指数的 ROIC 中位数或均值只是一个起点，其揭示的信息不如市值加权 ROIC 来得充分。
The spread between ROIC and the cost of capital, in particular, correlates highly with stock market valuation. Other issues aside, higher ROICs lead to higher valuations.1 As S&P indices are market-capitalization weighted, their performance and valuation is biased toward the biggest companies. So while looking at median or mean ROICs for a relevant index is a start, it is not as revealing as the market-capitalization-weighted ROIC.
表 1 显示，1995 年至 1998 年间，标普工业股的市值加权 ROIC 上升了 10 个百分点以上，达到 25.5%。同样重要的是，同期平均 ROIC 与市值加权 ROIC 之间的差距，已从 200 个基点暴增至 1300 个基点。这是如何发生的？又意味着什么？
Table 1 shows that the market-capitalization-weighted ROIC rose over 10 percentage points, to 25.5%, from 1995 to 1998 for the S&P Industrials. As important, the difference between the average ROIC and the market-capitalization-weighted ROIC has exploded from 200 basis points to 1300 basis points during the same period. How did this happen? And what does it mean?
1 《战略前沿——战略为何重要》，迈克尔·J·莫布森与鲍勃·希勒，瑞士信贷第一波士顿股票
1 “Frontiers of Strategy—Why Strategy Matters,” Michael J. Mauboussin and Bob Hiler, Credit Suisse First Boston Equity
研究部，1998 年 9 月 30 日。
Research, September 30, 1998.
市值加权 ROIC
Market-Capitalization-Weighted ROIC
标普工业股 年份 ROIC 中位数 ROIC 均值 市值加权 ROIC 1995 11.0% 13.1% 15.3% 1996 10.1 12.5 16.4 1997 10.0 12.4 18.9 1998E 10.0 12.5 25.5 1999E（年初至今） 10.0 12.5 26.8 平均 10.2% 12.6% 20.6%
S&P Industrials Year Median ROIC Mean ROIC Market-Cap Weighted ROIC 1995 11.0% 13.1% 15.3% 1996 10.1 12.5 16.4 1997 10.0 12.4 18.9 1998E 10.0 12.5 25.5 1999E (Y-T-D) 10.0 12.5 26.8 Average 10.2% 12.6% 20.6%
资料来源：公司公开数据，CSFB 估算。
Source: Company published data, CSFB estimates.
首先必须注意的是，标普工业股市值加权 ROIC 中有超过一半来自四家公司：微软、戴尔、可口可乐和通用电气。（见表 2。）这四家公司在 1998 年末占指数权重的 12.3%，其平均 ROIC 为 119%。
It is first important to note that over one-half of the S&P Industrial’s market-capitalization-weighted ROIC is derived from four companies: Microsoft, Dell, Coca-Cola, and GE. (See Table 2.) These four companies, which comprised 12.3% of the index weighting at year-end 1998, had an average ROIC of 119%.
要理解过去三年市值加权 ROIC 的飙升，只需看微软和戴尔即可。二者合计的市值加权 ROIC 从 1995 年的 0.9% 升至 1998 年的 11.1%。
To understand the surge in market-capitalization-weighted ROIC over the past three years, one need not look further than Microsoft and Dell. Their combined market-capitalization-weighted ROIC went from 0.9% in 1995 to 11.1% in 1998.
令人惊讶的是，微软直到 1994 年 6 月才被纳入标普 500 指数。
Amazingly, Microsoft was not included in the S&P 500 until June 1994.
表 2 对市值加权 ROIC 的贡献 标普工业股，1998 年末 公司 市值加权 ROIC 贡献 微软 8.5% 戴尔 2.6 可口可乐 1.2 通用电气 0.9 前四名小计 13.0% 其余全部（358 家公司） 12.5% 合计 25.5% 资料来源：公司公开数据，CSFB 估算。
Table 2 Contribution to Market-Capitalization-Weighted ROIC S&P Industrials, year-end 1998 Company Market-capitalization weighted ROIC contribution Microsoft 8.5% Dell 2.6 Coca-Cola 1.2 GE 0.9 Subtotal of top 4 13.0% All others (358 companies) 12.5% Total 25.5% Source: Company published data, CSFB estimates.
大盘股正在为指数定调，这一点已被广泛承认（也被广泛哀叹）（见表 3）。而不太为人所领会的是，这些价值的飙升是 ROIC 上升的直接结果。市场“头重脚轻”是合理的——至少在当前 ROIC 得以维持的前提下如此。
It is broadly acknowledged (and lamented) that large capitalization stocks are pacing the indices (see Table 3). What is not as well appreciated is that these value surges are a direct function of rising ROICs. The market is justifiably top heavy, at least if current ROICs are sustained.
表 3 标普 500 指数各市值分组的相对表现 按五分位划分的标普相对表现
Table 3 Relative Performance of S&P 500 Capitalization Sectors S&P relative performance by quintile
原件此处是表格，PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失，下面只剩按列读出的数字，行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 st 第 1 五分位（最大） 0.8 1.3 3.3 2.9 9.1 nd 第 2 五分位 (0.9) (2.0) (4.2) (2.3) (6.5) rd 第 3 五分位 (1.3) (6.1) (4.1) (7.8) (20.6) th 第 4 五分位 (2.4) (12.1) (5.3) (10.9) (27.2) th 第 5 五分位（最小） 1.1 (12.5) (1.7) (11.6) (21.8)
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 st 1 quintile (largest) 0.8 1.3 3.3 2.9 9.1 nd 2 quintile (0.9) (2.0) (4.2) (2.3) (6.5) rd 3 quintile (1.3) (6.1) (4.1) (7.8) (20.6) th 4 quintile (2.4) (12.1) (5.3) (10.9) (27.2) th 5 quintile (smallest) 1.1 (12.5) (1.7) (11.6) (21.8)
资料来源：CSFB 估算。
Source: CSFB estimates.
这一分析的一个关键含义是，市场应有的市盈率——即便不考虑利率下行——如今理应远高于本十年早些时候的水平。此外，这些数据表明，相对于市场的市盈率比较是可疑的。事实上，使用相对倍数，实际上等于在与那些创造非凡回报与增长的市场主导型公司作比较。
One key implication of this analysis is that the warranted P/E for the market— even without consideration of lower interest rates—is justifiably much higher today than it was earlier this decade. Further, these data suggest that P/E comparisons relative to the market are suspect. In fact, the use of relative multiples is a de facto comparison to market-dominant companies generating extraordinary returns and growth.
摇狗的那条（肥）尾巴 上述讨论可以通过 ROIC 的频数分布图直观地重述（见图 1）。一眼可见的是，分布右侧有一条肥尾。这条肥尾中包含了许多高 ROIC 企业，正是它们在驱动市场的表现与估值。
The (Fat) Tail that Wags the Dog The above discussion can be recast visually by looking at a frequency distribution of ROICs (see Figure 1). What is immediately clear is that there is a fat tail on the right-hand side of the distribution. This fat tail contains many of the high ROIC businesses that are driving the performance and valuation of the market.
图 1 标普工业股投入资本回报率频数分布 1998 年预测
Figure 1 Frequency Distribution of Return on Invested Capital for the S&P Industrials 1998E
80 70 60
80 70 60
原件此处是表格，PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失，下面只剩按列读出的数字，行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
频数 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 100% > 200% ROIC %
Frequency 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 100% > 200% ROIC %
资料来源：CSFB 估算。
Source: CSFB estimates.
值得注意的是，历史上并不存在这样一条肥尾。在或许是有史以来关于股东价值最出色的著作之一中，威廉·弗鲁汉给出了 1966—1975 年间 1400 多家非金融公司的净资产收益率（ROE）分布（见图 2）。虽然该分布的整体形状与今天非常相似，但当年并没有公司能赚到我们如今所见的那种超常回报。2
It is interesting to note that no such fat tail existed historically. In what stands as one of the best books ever written on shareholder value, William Fruhan provided the return on equity (ROE) distributions for over 1,400 non-financial companies in the 1966-1975 period (see Figure 2). While the overall shape of the distribution is very similar to that of today, there were no companies earning the outsized returns we now see.2
2 尽管 ROE 无法直接换算为 ROIC，但弗鲁汉实际上已对 ROE 作了调整，以剔除
2 Although ROE is not directly translatable into ROIC, Fruhan actually adjusted the ROEs to remove the deleterious effect of
超额现金的不利影响。二者不存在实质性差异，因此 ROE 与 ROIC 的比较是合理的。
excess cash. There were no material differences, making the ROE/ROIC comparisons reasonable.
图 2 1448 家 Compustat 公司净资产收益率频数分布 1966 年
Figure 2 Frequency Distribution of Return on Equity for 1,448 Compustat Companies 1966
原件此处是表格，PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失，下面只剩按列读出的数字，行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
100 90 80 70 频数 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -26% -8% 2% 12% 23% 34% ROE
100 90 80 70 Frequency 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -26% -8% 2% 12% 23% 34% ROE
资料来源：《财务战略》，小威廉·E·弗鲁汉，1979 年。
Source: Financial Strategy, William E. Fruhan, Jr., 1979.
一些市场评论家把今天表现强劲的大市值股票，与 1970 年代初的“漂亮 50”相提并论。然而我们发现，这一类比多少有些流于表面——哪怕仅从回报指标看也是如此。我们估计，“漂亮 50”的平均 ROE 约为 19%，远低于 1998 年标普工业股前 50 大公司 32% 的市值加权 ROIC。（见附录 A。）
Some market pundits have compared today’s strong-performing large capitalization stocks with the Nifty Fifty from the early 1970s. However, we find that the comparison is somewhat superficial, if only based on return measures. We esti-mate that the average ROE for the Nifty Fifty was about 19%, sharply lower than the 32% market-capitalization-weighted ROIC of the top 50 stocks in the S&P Industrials for 1998. (See Appendix A.)
这条肥尾是如何出现的？我们认为，它是美国从“旧经济”向“新经济”持续、根本性转变的产物。用通俗的话说，这意味着经济正在从以实物资本或资源作为竞争优势基础的行业，转向以知识或智力资本作为优势驱动力的行业。
How did the fat tail emerge? We believe it is an outgrowth of a fundamental, ongoing shift in the United States from the “Old Economy” to the “New Economy.” In plain language, this means that the economy is moving away from industries where physical capital or resources are the foundation for competitive advantage toward businesses where knowledge, or intellectual capital, is the driver of advantage.
其含义十分直白：新经济公司所需的投入资本并不高，却能创造出比资本密集的旧经济同行更高的 ROIC。因此，即便在对期权负债和更高的行业不稳定性作出调整之后，新经济公司往往仍配得上高于平均水平的估值倍数。
The implication is straightforward: with only modest invested capital requirements, many New Economy companies generate higher ROICs than their capital-laden Old Economy brethren. Accordingly, New Economy companies often deserve higher-than-average multiples, even after adjusting for options liability and greater industry instability.
此外，我们认为，用来理解传统企业的那些“心智模型”，在解释新经济公司的动态时表现很差。3 例如，由于正反馈机制的作用，某些企业享有的是递增回报而非递减回报。微软对 PC 操作系统的主导地位就是一个很好的例子。
Further, we believe that the “mental models” applied to understand traditional businesses do a poor job of explaining the dynamics of New Economy companies.3 For example, some businesses enjoy increasing, rather than decreasing, returns as the result of positive feedback mechanisms. Microsoft’s dominance of PC operating systems is a good case in point.
许多科技市场“赢家通吃”的结局，直到最近才被充分记录下来。更新后的心智模型不仅有助于理解肥尾如何以及为何出现，也有助于判断这些高回报能否持续。
The “winner-take-all” outcome of many technology markets has only recently been well documented. Updated mental models are useful for understanding not only how and why the fat tail emerged but whether or not these high returns are sustainable.
3 《战略前沿——站在巨人的肩上》，迈克尔·J·莫布森与鲍勃·希勒，瑞士信贷第一波士顿
3 ”Frontiers of Strategy—On the Shoulders of Giants,” Michael J. Mauboussin and Bob Hiler, Credit Suisse First Boston
股票研究部，1998 年 11 月 18 日。
Equity Research, November 18, 1998.
标普 500——科技板块大到无法忽视 标普 500 指数的成分构成多年来已发生剧变。从旧经济企业向新经济行业的转移十分明显（见表 4 和表 5）。科技板块——35 年前只占指数约 5%——如今已超过 20%。值得注意的是，直到 1993 年，科技板块的权重还不足 10%。
S&P 500—Technology Is Too Large to Ignore The composition of the S&P 500 has changed dramatically over the years. There has been a pronounced shift away from Old Economy businesses to New Economy industries (see Tables 4 and 5). Technology—which only represented about 5% of the index 35 years ago—now represents over 20%. Notably, the technology weight was less than 10% as recently as 1993.
表 4 标普 500 指数选定行业的权重
Table 4 Weightings of Selected S&P 500 Industries
1998 年与 1964 年对比 板块 1964 1998 公用事业 19.2% 3.1% 能源 17.8 5.7 基础材料 16.5 3.1 科技 5.5 19.4
1998 versus 1964 Sector 1964 1998 Utilities 19.2% 3.1% Energy 17.8 5.7 Basic Materials 16.5 3.1 Technology 5.5 19.4
资料来源：标准普尔公司。
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
价值投资者通常提出两条反对投资科技股的理由。第一，他们不懂科技——那超出了他们的能力圈。沃伦·巴菲特或许是持这一论调的最著名的价值投资者。我们认为，投资者应当努力做到具有适应性。
Value investors typically cite two objections to investing in technology stocks. The first is that they do not understand technology—it is outside their circle of com-petence. Warren Buffett is perhaps the best-known value investor to indulge in this line of reasoning. We believe that investors should strive to be adaptive.
科技正在深刻改变许多行业，我们相信，若不牢牢把握关键的战略与财务驱动因素，将很难取得高于市场平均水平的回报。科技板块实在太大、太重要，无法忽视。
Technology is profoundly changing many industries, and we believe it will be diffi-cult to generate above-market-average returns without a firm grasp of key strate-gic and financial drivers. Technology is simply too large, and too important, to ignore.
第二，价值投资者坚持认为当前的科技股估值无法支撑。虽然我们并不是来为当下的估值辩护，但我们认为，“高估”一说更多源于对商业模式缺乏领会，而非源于过度乐观。某些市场“赢家通吃”的属性，进一步加大了科技公司估值的难度。在一些细分领域，领先公司享有的估值溢价是其运气较差的竞争对手的 5 至 10 倍。
Second, value investors insist that current technology valuations cannot be sup-ported. While we are not here to justify present valuations, we believe the “over-valued” case stems more from a lack of appreciation of business models than undue optimism. The challenge of valuing technology companies is further com-pounded by the winner-take-all nature of some markets. Within some sectors, leading companies enjoy valuation premiums 5 to 10 times their less fortunate competitors.
标普 500 指数前 20 大公司
Top 20 Companies in the S&P 500 Index
1998 年与 1964 年对比 1964 1998 公司 占市值 % 累计 % 公司 占市值 % 累计 % AT&T 9.1% 9.1% Microsoft 3.5% 3.5% General Motors 7.3 16.4 General Electric 3.4 6.9 Exxon 5.0 21.4 Intel 2.0 8.9 IBM 3.7 25.1 Wal-Mart 1.8 10.8 Texaco 3.1 28.2 Exxon 1.8 12.6 DuPont 2.9 31.1 Merck 1.8 14.4 Sears Roebuck 2.5 33.6 IBM 1.8 16.1 General Electric 2.2 35.8 Coca-Cola 1.7 17.8 Gulf 1.6 37.4 Pfizer 1.7 19.5 Eastman Kodak 1.4 38.8 Cisco 1.5 20.9 Chevron 1.4 40.2 Lucent 1.5 22.4 Mobil 1.2 41.4 Bristol Myers Squibb 1.4 23.8 Royal Dutch 1.1 42.6 AT&T 1.4 25.1 Union Carbide 1.0 43.6 MCI Worldcom 1.3 26.5 Shell 0.9 44.5 Philip Morris 1.3 27.8 Proctor & Gamble 0.9 45.4 Proctor & Gamble 1.2 29.0 General T&T 0.8 46.3 Johnson & Johnson 1.2 30.2 Amoco 0.8 47.1 SBC Communications 1.1 31.3 MMM 0.8 47.8 BankAmerica 1.1 32.3 Ford 0.7 48.6 Royal Dutch 1.0 33.4
1998 versus 1964 1964 1998 Company % of mkt cap Cum % Company % of mkt cap Cum % AT&T 9.1% 9.1% Microsoft 3.5% 3.5% General Motors 7.3 16.4 General Electric 3.4 6.9 Exxon 5.0 21.4 Intel 2.0 8.9 IBM 3.7 25.1 Wal-Mart 1.8 10.8 Texaco 3.1 28.2 Exxon 1.8 12.6 DuPont 2.9 31.1 Merck 1.8 14.4 Sears Roebuck 2.5 33.6 IBM 1.8 16.1 General Electric 2.2 35.8 Coca-Cola 1.7 17.8 Gulf 1.6 37.4 Pfizer 1.7 19.5 Eastman Kodak 1.4 38.8 Cisco 1.5 20.9 Chevron 1.4 40.2 Lucent 1.5 22.4 Mobil 1.2 41.4 Bristol Myers Squibb 1.4 23.8 Royal Dutch 1.1 42.6 AT&T 1.4 25.1 Union Carbide 1.0 43.6 MCI Worldcom 1.3 26.5 Shell 0.9 44.5 Philip Morris 1.3 27.8 Proctor & Gamble 0.9 45.4 Proctor & Gamble 1.2 29.0 General T&T 0.8 46.3 Johnson & Johnson 1.2 30.2 Amoco 0.8 47.1 SBC Communications 1.1 31.3 MMM 0.8 47.8 BankAmerica 1.1 32.3 Ford 0.7 48.6 Royal Dutch 1.0 33.4
资料来源：《股市长线法宝》，杰里米·西格尔著，CSFB 估算。
Source: Stocks for the Long Run by Jeremy Siegel, CSFB estimates.
结论 对基金经理而言，战胜标普 500 指数向来是个挑战。若不理解指数的关键表现驱动因素，这项任务就更加艰巨。本报告为理解市场过往的表现——以及它为何可能在未来延续——提供了一些洞见。
Conclusion Beating the S&P 500 index is always challenging for a money manager. The task is even more daunting without an appreciation of the key performance drivers of the indices. This report provides some insights about the market’s past performance—and why it may continue in the future.
注瑞士信贷第一波士顿公司（CREDIT SUISSE FIRST BOSTON CORPORATION）可能在过去三年内担任过上述任何一家或全部公司公开发行证券的主承销商或联席主承销商，或为其证券做市。收盘价截至 1999 年 2 月 1 日：
N.B.CREDIT SUISSE FIRST BOSTON CORPORATION may have, within the last three years, served as a manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for or makes a primary market in issues of any or all of the companies mentioned. Closing prices are as of February 1, 1999:
雅培制药 （ABT, 45.81, 未评级） 英特尔 （INTC, 137.88, 买入）
Abbott Laboratory (ABT, 45.81, Not Rated) Intel (INTC, 137.88, Buy)
AirTouch 通信 （ATI, 96.31, 买入） 彭尼公司 （JCP, 39.00, R）
Air Touch Communications (ATI, 96.31, Buy) J.C. Penney (JCP, 39.00, R)
美国运通 （AXP, 102.79, 买入） 强生 （JNJ, 83.69, 未评级） 美国家庭用品公司 （AHP, 58.13, 未评级） 凯马特公司 （KM, 17.56, 持有） 美国信息技术公司 （AIT, 63.00, 买入） 路博润公司 （LZ, 21.38, 买入） AMP 公司 （AMP, 52.63, 未评级） 朗讯 （LU, 110.63, 强力买入）
American Express (AXP, 102.79, Buy) Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, 83.69, Not Rated) American Home Products (AHP, 58.13, Not Rated) Kmart Corporation (KM, 17.56, Hold) Ameritech (AIT, 63.00, Buy) Lubrizol Corporation (LZ, 21.38, Buy) AMP Incorporated (AMP, 52.63, Not Rated) Lucent (LU, 110.63, Strong Buy)
安海斯-布希公司 （BUD, 70.69, 麦当劳 （MCD, 79.38, 强力买入） 强力买入） MCI 世通 （WCOM, 80.75, 强力买入） AT&T （T, 93.69, R） 默克 （MRK, 146.94, 买入）
Anheuser-Busch, Incorporated (BUD, 70.69, McDonald’s (MCD, 79.38, Strong Buy) Strong Buy) MCI Worldcom (WCOM, 80.75, Strong Buy) AT&T (T, 93.69, R) Merck (MRK, 146.94, Buy)
雅芳产品 （AVP, 36.94, 买入） MGIC 投资公司 （MTG, 36.63, 未评级） 美国银行 （BA, 34.06, 持有） 微软 （MSFT, 172.94, 强力买入） 贝尔大西洋 （BEL, 59.50, 持有） 3M （MMM, 77.63, 未评级）
Avon Products (AVP, 36.94, Buy) MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG, 36.63, Not Rated) BankAmerica (BA, 34.06, Hold) Microsoft (MSFT, 172.94, Strong Buy) Bell Atlantic (BEL, 59.50, Hold) MMM (MMM, 77.63, Not Rated)
南方贝尔 （BLS, 45.13, 买入） 美孚 （MOB, 86.00, 买入）
Bell South (BLS, 45.13, Buy) Mobil (MOB, 86.00, Buy)
百得公司 （BDK, 53.00, 买入） 甲骨文系统 （ORCL, 59.13, 买入）
Black and Decker Corporation (BDK, 53.00, Buy) Oracle Systems (ORCL, 59.13, Buy)
百时美施贵宝 （BMY, 128.81, 买入） 百事公司 （PEP, 38.13, 买入）
Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY, 128.81, Buy) PepsiCo (PEP, 38.13, Buy)
雪佛龙 （CHV, 73.69, 持有） 辉瑞 （PFE, 132.75, 持有）
Chevron (CHV, 73.69, Hold) Pfizer (PFE, 132.75, Hold)
思科 （CSCO, 115.00, 强力买入） 菲利普莫里斯 （MO, 46.00, 买入） 可口可乐 （KO, 64.06, 买入） 宝丽来 （PRD, 17.06, 持有） 康柏电脑 （CPQ, 46.88, 买入） 宝洁 （PG, 90.63, 买入） 戴尔电脑 （DELL, 108.00, 强力买入） 露华浓公司 （REV, 16.44, 持有） 陶氏化学公司 （DOW, 88.06, 持有） 荷兰皇家 （RD, 41.38, 持有） 杜邦 （DD, 50.94, 持有） SBC 通信 （SBC, 52.56, 买入） 伊士曼柯达 （EK, 65.75, 买入） 先灵葆雅 （SGP, 54.50, 买入） 礼来 （LLY, 93.25, 买入） 斯伦贝谢有限公司 （SLB, 47.63, 买入） 西尔斯罗巴克 （S, 40.06, 持有） EMC 公司 （EMC, 107.44, 买入） 埃克森 （XON, 69.63, 持有） 壳牌 （SC, 31.31, 持有）
Cisco (CSCO, 115.00, Strong Buy) Philip Morris (MO, 46.00, Buy) Coca-Cola (KO, 64.06, Buy) Polaroid (PRD, 17.06, Hold) Compaq Computer (CPQ, 46.88, Buy) Proctor & Gamble (PG, 90.63, Buy) Dell Computer (DELL, 108.00, Strong Buy) Revlon, Incorporated (REV, 16.44, Hold) Dow Chemical Company (DOW, 88.06, Hold) Royal Dutch (RD, 41.38, Hold) DuPont (DD, 50.94, Hold) SBC Communications (SBC, 52.56, Buy) Eastman Kodak (EK, 65.75, Buy) Schering Plough (SGP, 54.50, Buy) Eli Lilly (LLY, 93.25, Buy) Schlumberger, Limited (SLB, 47.63, Buy) EMC Corporation (EMC, 107.44, Buy) Sears Roebuck (S, 40.06, Hold) Exxon (XON, 69.63, Hold) Shell (SC, 31.31, Hold)
福特 （F, 60.75, 持有） 时代华纳 （TWX, 62.31, 买入） 通用电气 （GE, 102.19, 买入） 德士古 （TX, 46.75, 持有） 通用汽车 （GM, 93.38, 买入） 德州仪器 （TXN, 98.79, 买入） 吉列 （G, 59.19, 买入） 泰科国际 （TYC, 75.06, R） GTE （GTE, 66.94, 持有） 沃尔玛 （WMT, 84.50, 买入） 惠普 （HWP, 81.94, 买入） 华特迪士尼 （DIS, 33.56, 买入） 家得宝 （HD, 59.13, 买入） 华纳-兰伯特 （WLA, 73.69, 持有） IBM （IBM, 179.75, 买入）
Ford (F, 60.75, Hold) Time Warner (TWX, 62.31, Buy) General Electric (GE, 102.19, Buy) Texaco (TX, 46.75, Hold) General Motors (GM, 93.38, Buy) Texas Instruments (TXN, 98.79, Buy) Gillette (G, 59.19, Buy) Tyco International (TYC, 75.06, R) GTE (GTE, 66.94, Hold) Wal-Mart (WMT, 84.50, Buy) Hewlett-Packard (HWP, 81.94, Buy) Walt Disney (DIS, 33.56, Buy) Home Depot (HD, 59.13, Buy) Warner Lambert (WLA, 73.69, Hold) IBM (IBM, 179.75, Buy)
附录 A
Appendix A
表 6 标普工业股前 50 大公司 1998 年末
Table 6 Top 50 Companies in the S&P Industrials year-end 1998
% of Top 50 Market Value ROIC % S&P (x) Company S&P Co’s by ROIC Mkt. Val.
% of Top 50 Market Value ROIC % S&P (x) Company S&P Co’s by ROIC Mkt. Val.
原件此处是表格，PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失，下面只剩按列读出的数字，行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
Year End 1998 1998E MSFT 345,055 6.69% 188% 12.57% GE 333,307 6.47% 20% 1.28% INTC 197,644 3.83% 31% 1.17% WMT 181,073 3.51% 15% 0.51% XON 177,767 3.45% 8% 0.29% MRK 174,204 3.38% 26% 0.89% IBM 171,995 3.34% 8% 0.28% KO 164,970 3.20% 54% 1.72% PFE 162,224 3.15% 21% 0.65% CSCO 145,994 2.83% 19% 0.53% LU 144,443 2.80% 10% 0.27% BMY 132,952 2.58% 24% 0.61% T 132,840 2.58% 7% 0.19% WCOM 131,295 2.55% 3% 0.07% MO 130,182 2.53% 19% 0.48% PG 121,071 2.35% 17% 0.41% JNJ 112,806 2.19% 19% 0.42% SBC 104,891 2.04% 8% 0.17% RD 102,658 1.99% 8% 0.16% LLY 97,733 1.90% 18% 0.34% BLS 97,655 1.89% 12% 0.22% DELL 93,021 1.80% 212% 3.82% HD 90,180 1.75% 15% 0.25% BEL 85,107 1.65% 8% 0.14% SGP 81,218 1.58% 32% 0.50% TWX 75,096 1.46% 4% 0.06% ABT 74,414 1.44% 19% 0.27% AHP 74,303 1.44% 12% 0.17% F 71,716 1.39% 14% 0.19% CPQ 71,400 1.39% 51% 0.71% AIT 69,938 1.36% 16% 0.21% HWP 69,365 1.35% 15% 0.20% MOB 67,910 1.32% 10% 0.14% GTE 62,674 1.22% 12% 0.14% DIS 62,130 1.21% 9% 0.11% WLA 61,700 1.20% 16% 0.19% PEP 60,332 1.17% 13% 0.15% DD 59,726 1.16% 9% 0.11% AN 57,160 1.11% 10% 0.11% CHV 54,109 1.05% 10% 0.10% UN 53,096 1.03% 10% 0.11% G 53,039 1.03% 17% 0.18% MCD 51,964 1.01% 10% 0.10% GM 46,876 0.91% 3% 0.03% TYC 44,255 0.86% 5% 0.04% EMC 42,657 0.83% 33% 0.27% ATI 41,514 0.81% 9% 0.07% ORCL 41,388 0.80% 44% 0.35% XRX 38,671 0.75% 10% 0.07% MOT 36,648 0.71% 9% 0.06% Total 5,154,365 (a) 100.00% 23% (b) 32% (c)
Year End 1998 1998E MSFT 345,055 6.69% 188% 12.57% GE 333,307 6.47% 20% 1.28% INTC 197,644 3.83% 31% 1.17% WMT 181,073 3.51% 15% 0.51% XON 177,767 3.45% 8% 0.29% MRK 174,204 3.38% 26% 0.89% IBM 171,995 3.34% 8% 0.28% KO 164,970 3.20% 54% 1.72% PFE 162,224 3.15% 21% 0.65% CSCO 145,994 2.83% 19% 0.53% LU 144,443 2.80% 10% 0.27% BMY 132,952 2.58% 24% 0.61% T 132,840 2.58% 7% 0.19% WCOM 131,295 2.55% 3% 0.07% MO 130,182 2.53% 19% 0.48% PG 121,071 2.35% 17% 0.41% JNJ 112,806 2.19% 19% 0.42% SBC 104,891 2.04% 8% 0.17% RD 102,658 1.99% 8% 0.16% LLY 97,733 1.90% 18% 0.34% BLS 97,655 1.89% 12% 0.22% DELL 93,021 1.80% 212% 3.82% HD 90,180 1.75% 15% 0.25% BEL 85,107 1.65% 8% 0.14% SGP 81,218 1.58% 32% 0.50% TWX 75,096 1.46% 4% 0.06% ABT 74,414 1.44% 19% 0.27% AHP 74,303 1.44% 12% 0.17% F 71,716 1.39% 14% 0.19% CPQ 71,400 1.39% 51% 0.71% AIT 69,938 1.36% 16% 0.21% HWP 69,365 1.35% 15% 0.20% MOB 67,910 1.32% 10% 0.14% GTE 62,674 1.22% 12% 0.14% DIS 62,130 1.21% 9% 0.11% WLA 61,700 1.20% 16% 0.19% PEP 60,332 1.17% 13% 0.15% DD 59,726 1.16% 9% 0.11% AN 57,160 1.11% 10% 0.11% CHV 54,109 1.05% 10% 0.10% UN 53,096 1.03% 10% 0.11% G 53,039 1.03% 17% 0.18% MCD 51,964 1.01% 10% 0.10% GM 46,876 0.91% 3% 0.03% TYC 44,255 0.86% 5% 0.04% EMC 42,657 0.83% 33% 0.27% ATI 41,514 0.81% 9% 0.07% ORCL 41,388 0.80% 44% 0.35% XRX 38,671 0.75% 10% 0.07% MOT 36,648 0.71% 9% 0.06% Total 5,154,365 (a) 100.00% 23% (b) 32% (c)
（a）标普工业股前 50 大公司的市值之和。
(a) Sum of the market capitalization of the top 50 companies in the S&P Industrials.
（b）这些公司 1998 年预测 ROIC 的算术平均值。
(b) Arithmetic mean of the 1998E ROIC for these companies.
（c）这些公司的市值加权 ROIC。
(c) Market weighted ROIC for these companies.
资料来源：FactSet，CSFB 估算。
Source: FactSet, CSFB estimates.
“漂亮 50”股票的净资产收益率 1972 年
Return on Equity for “Nifty Fifty” Stocks 1972
公司名称 净资产收益率
Company Name Return on Equity
Emery Air Freight Corp. 33.8% Avon Products Inc. 33.0% Louisiana Land & Exploration 28.4% American Home Products Corp. 25.7% Merck & Co. Inc. 24.4% Schering Corp. 23.1% Coca-Cola Co. 22.8% Gillete Co. 22.0% Lilly Eli & Co. 20.4% AMP Inc. 20.4% Int’l Flavors and Fragrances 20.0% Xerox Corp. 19.9% Eastman Kodak Co. 19.8% Penney J.C. Inc. 18.7% Philip Morris Cos. Inc. 18.6% Lubrizol Corp. 18.5% McDonald’s Corp. 18.3% Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing Co. 18.2% Procter & Gamble Co. 17.6% Chesebrough Ponds 17.4% General Electric Co. 17.2% Heublein Inc. 17.1% International Business Machines 16.9% Bristol-Myers 16.9% Anheuser - Busch Inc. 16.6% Johnson and Johnson 16.6% Sears Roebuck & Co. 16.4% Pepsico Inc. 16.3% Revlon Inc. 16.0% American Express Co. 15.9% Black and Decker Corp. 15.4% Halliburton Co. 15.1% Pfizer Inc. 15.0% Dow Chemical Co. 14.3% Texas Instruments 13.0% Baxter Labs 11.6% Disney, Walt Co. 8.8% Polaroid Corp. 7.4% Upjohn Co. NA Squibb Corp. NA Simplicity Patterns NA Schlumberger Ltd. NA Schlitz Joe Brewing Co. NA M.G.I.C Investment Corp NA Kresge (S.S.) Co. (Kmart) NA Int’l Telephone and Telegraph Corp. NA First National City Corp. NA Digital Equipment Corp. NA Burroughs Co. NA American Hospitality Supply Corp. NA Average ROE 18.6%
Emery Air Freight Corp. 33.8% Avon Products Inc. 33.0% Louisiana Land & Exploration 28.4% American Home Products Corp. 25.7% Merck & Co. Inc. 24.4% Schering Corp. 23.1% Coca-Cola Co. 22.8% Gillete Co. 22.0% Lilly Eli & Co. 20.4% AMP Inc. 20.4% Int’l Flavors and Fragrances 20.0% Xerox Corp. 19.9% Eastman Kodak Co. 19.8% Penney J.C. Inc. 18.7% Philip Morris Cos. Inc. 18.6% Lubrizol Corp. 18.5% McDonald’s Corp. 18.3% Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing Co. 18.2% Procter & Gamble Co. 17.6% Chesebrough Ponds 17.4% General Electric Co. 17.2% Heublein Inc. 17.1% International Business Machines 16.9% Bristol-Myers 16.9% Anheuser - Busch Inc. 16.6% Johnson and Johnson 16.6% Sears Roebuck & Co. 16.4% Pepsico Inc. 16.3% Revlon Inc. 16.0% American Express Co. 15.9% Black and Decker Corp. 15.4% Halliburton Co. 15.1% Pfizer Inc. 15.0% Dow Chemical Co. 14.3% Texas Instruments 13.0% Baxter Labs 11.6% Disney, Walt Co. 8.8% Polaroid Corp. 7.4% Upjohn Co. NA Squibb Corp. NA Simplicity Patterns NA Schlumberger Ltd. NA Schlitz Joe Brewing Co. NA M.G.I.C Investment Corp NA Kresge (S.S.) Co. (Kmart) NA Int’l Telephone and Telegraph Corp. NA First National City Corp. NA Digital Equipment Corp. NA Burroughs Co. NA American Hospitality Supply Corp. NA Average ROE 18.6%
资料来源：《财务战略》，小威廉·E·弗鲁汉，1979 年。
Source: Financial Strategy, William E. Fruhan, Jr., 1979.
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标普工业股的市值加权资本回报率，涵盖曾构成 1997 年末标普工业股指数、目前仍存续的 360 家公司；价格截至 1999 年 1 月 22 日
Market-Capitalization-Weighted Return on Capital for the S&P Industrials includes the 360 still extant companies that used to comprise the year-end 1997 S&P Industrials Index; prices as of 1/22/99
原件此处是表格，PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失，下面只剩按列读出的数字，行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
Market % of S&P (x) Market % of S&P (x) Rank Company % of S&P ROIC 1998E Rank Company % of S&P ROIC 1998E Value ROIC Value ROIC 1 MSFT 393,882 5.12% 188% 9.61% 61 PNU 28,864 0.38% 5% 0.02% 2 GE 324,525 4.22% 20% 0.83% 62 WAG 28,753 0.37% 10% 0.04% 3 INTC 222,545 2.89% 31% 0.89% 63 VIAB 28,607 0.37% 2% 0.01% 4 IBM 183,772 2.39% 8% 0.20% 64 AMGN 27,995 0.36% 29% 0.11% 5 WMT 175,792 2.29% 15% 0.33% 65 KMB 27,259 0.35% 11% 0.04% 6 XON 172,905 2.25% 8% 0.19% 66 SLB 27,227 0.35% 16% 0.06% 7 MRK 172,802 2.25% 26% 0.59% 67 TXN 27,161 0.35% 8% 0.03% 8 CSCO 159,365 2.07% 19% 0.39% 68 CA 26,274 0.34% 22% 0.07% 9 T 154,432 2.01% 7% 0.15% 69 DH 25,981 0.34% 9% 0.03% 10 KO 151,582 1.97% 54% 1.06% 70 UTX 25,758 0.33% 11% 0.04% 11 PFE 151,193 1.97% 21% 0.41% 71 EMR 25,390 0.33% 14% 0.05% 12 LU 140,291 1.82% 10% 0.18% 72 CBS 25,155 0.33% 3% 0.01% 13 WCOM 135,184 1.76% 3% 0.05% 73 CMCSK 23,463 0.30% 3% 0.01% 14 BMY 121,154 1.57% 24% 0.37% 74 MTC 23,338 0.30% 8% 0.02% 15 PG 114,690 1.49% 17% 0.26% 75 AUD 22,998 0.30% 19% 0.06% 16 MO 112,389 1.46% 19% 0.28% 76 SLE 22,722 0.30% 12% 0.04% 17 SBC 111,860 1.45% 8% 0.12% 77 CL 22,656 0.29% 14% 0.04% 18 JNJ 107,595 1.40% 19% 0.27% 78 ALD 22,262 0.29% 13% 0.04% 19 DELL 107,002 1.39% 212% 2.94% 79 EK 21,141 0.27% 11% 0.03% 20 RD 96,493 1.25% 8% 0.10% 80 AMAT 20,330 0.26% 28% 0.07% 21 BEL 91,904 1.19% 8% 0.10% 81 CPB 19,608 0.25% 17% 0.04% 22 BLS 90,925 1.18% 12% 0.14% 82 CVS 19,509 0.25% 10% 0.03% 23 LLY 85,706 1.11% 18% 0.20% 83 ARC 19,273 0.25% 9% 0.02% 24 HD 83,548 1.09% 15% 0.16% 84 DOW 19,201 0.25% 10% 0.02% 25 CPQ 81,069 1.05% 51% 0.54% 85 HNZ 18,995 0.25% 12% 0.03% 26 SGP 76,348 0.99% 32% 0.32% 86 LOW 18,207 0.24% 11% 0.03% 27 F 75,840 0.99% 14% 0.13% 87 BAX 18,077 0.23% 10% 0.02% 28 TWX 75,474 0.98% 4% 0.04% 88 RTN 18,070 0.23% 8% 0.02% 29 AIT 74,077 0.96% 16% 0.15% 89 GCI 17,899 0.23% 13% 0.03% 30 DIS 71,579 0.93% 9% 0.09% 90 AT 17,649 0.23% 10% 0.02% 31 HWP 71,269 0.93% 15% 0.13% 91 PBI 17,568 0.23% 12% 0.03% 32 AHP 69,937 0.91% 12% 0.11% 92 COMS 16,948 0.22% 27% 0.06% 33 ABT 68,340 0.89% 19% 0.17% 93 TLAB 16,366 0.21% 43% 0.09% 34 MOB 67,033 0.87% 10% 0.09% 94 GDT 16,363 0.21% 19% 0.04% 35 GTE 64,602 0.84% 12% 0.10% 95 CD 16,286 0.21% 6% 0.01% 36 DD 60,852 0.79% 9% 0.07% 96 CAT 16,096 0.21% 15% 0.03% 37 GM 58,912 0.77% 3% 0.02% 97 COST 15,739 0.20% 10% 0.02% 38 AN 57,160 0.74% 10% 0.08% 98 FDC 15,571 0.20% 6% 0.01% 39 G 56,505 0.73% 17% 0.13% 99 AA 15,420 0.20% 9% 0.02% 40 PEP 55,996 0.73% 13% 0.10% 100 CAG 15,384 0.20% 12% 0.02% 41 WLA 54,982 0.71% 16% 0.12% 101 VO 15,267 0.20% 4% 0.01% 42 ATI 53,943 0.70% 9% 0.06% 102 ITW 15,254 0.20% 14% 0.03% 43 MCD 51,879 0.67% 10% 0.07% 103 K 15,181 0.20% 20% 0.04% 44 CHV 51,540 0.67% 10% 0.07% 104 CCU 14,909 0.19% 8% 0.02% 45 UN 50,335 0.65% 10% 0.07% 105 MU 14,905 0.19% 9% 0.02% 46 EMC 48,428 0.63% 33% 0.21% 106 IMT 14,820 0.19% 10% 0.02% 47 ORCL 46,726 0.61% 44% 0.27% 107 ABS 14,687 0.19% 12% 0.02% 48 MOT 41,262 0.54% 9% 0.05% 108 KR 14,625 0.19% 13% 0.03% 49 TYC 40,918 0.53% 5% 0.03% 109 CAH 14,465 0.19% 11% 0.02% 50 TXN 37,554 0.49% 9% 0.04% 110 HAL 13,896 0.18% 13% 0.02% 51 XRX 36,726 0.48% 10% 0.05% 111 BFO 13,645 0.18% 12% 0.02% 52 NT 35,828 0.47% 13% 0.06% 112 HBOC 13,268 0.17% 14% 0.02% 53 FON 34,052 0.44% 13% 0.06% 113 MAY 13,207 0.17% 12% 0.02% 54 MDT 33,734 0.44% 22% 0.10% 114 IP 12,990 0.17% 2% 0.00% 55 GPS 33,277 0.43% 16% 0.07% 115 RAD 12,694 0.17% 7% 0.01% 56 UMG 32,388 0.42% -1% 0.00% 116 GIS 12,336 0.16% 21% 0.03% 57 BUD 32,140 0.42% 14% 0.06% 117 CZT 12,252 0.16% 31% 0.05% 58 BAX 32,113 0.42% 4% 0.02% 118 COL 11,819 0.15% 3% 0.00% 59 USW 30,690 0.40% 10% 0.04% 119 CLX 11,569 0.15% 14% 0.02% 60 MMM 29,134 0.38% 17% 0.06% 120 WY 11,355 0.15% 5% 0.01%
Market % of S&P (x) Market % of S&P (x) Rank Company % of S&P ROIC 1998E Rank Company % of S&P ROIC 1998E Value ROIC Value ROIC 1 MSFT 393,882 5.12% 188% 9.61% 61 PNU 28,864 0.38% 5% 0.02% 2 GE 324,525 4.22% 20% 0.83% 62 WAG 28,753 0.37% 10% 0.04% 3 INTC 222,545 2.89% 31% 0.89% 63 VIAB 28,607 0.37% 2% 0.01% 4 IBM 183,772 2.39% 8% 0.20% 64 AMGN 27,995 0.36% 29% 0.11% 5 WMT 175,792 2.29% 15% 0.33% 65 KMB 27,259 0.35% 11% 0.04% 6 XON 172,905 2.25% 8% 0.19% 66 SLB 27,227 0.35% 16% 0.06% 7 MRK 172,802 2.25% 26% 0.59% 67 TXN 27,161 0.35% 8% 0.03% 8 CSCO 159,365 2.07% 19% 0.39% 68 CA 26,274 0.34% 22% 0.07% 9 T 154,432 2.01% 7% 0.15% 69 DH 25,981 0.34% 9% 0.03% 10 KO 151,582 1.97% 54% 1.06% 70 UTX 25,758 0.33% 11% 0.04% 11 PFE 151,193 1.97% 21% 0.41% 71 EMR 25,390 0.33% 14% 0.05% 12 LU 140,291 1.82% 10% 0.18% 72 CBS 25,155 0.33% 3% 0.01% 13 WCOM 135,184 1.76% 3% 0.05% 73 CMCSK 23,463 0.30% 3% 0.01% 14 BMY 121,154 1.57% 24% 0.37% 74 MTC 23,338 0.30% 8% 0.02% 15 PG 114,690 1.49% 17% 0.26% 75 AUD 22,998 0.30% 19% 0.06% 16 MO 112,389 1.46% 19% 0.28% 76 SLE 22,722 0.30% 12% 0.04% 17 SBC 111,860 1.45% 8% 0.12% 77 CL 22,656 0.29% 14% 0.04% 18 JNJ 107,595 1.40% 19% 0.27% 78 ALD 22,262 0.29% 13% 0.04% 19 DELL 107,002 1.39% 212% 2.94% 79 EK 21,141 0.27% 11% 0.03% 20 RD 96,493 1.25% 8% 0.10% 80 AMAT 20,330 0.26% 28% 0.07% 21 BEL 91,904 1.19% 8% 0.10% 81 CPB 19,608 0.25% 17% 0.04% 22 BLS 90,925 1.18% 12% 0.14% 82 CVS 19,509 0.25% 10% 0.03% 23 LLY 85,706 1.11% 18% 0.20% 83 ARC 19,273 0.25% 9% 0.02% 24 HD 83,548 1.09% 15% 0.16% 84 DOW 19,201 0.25% 10% 0.02% 25 CPQ 81,069 1.05% 51% 0.54% 85 HNZ 18,995 0.25% 12% 0.03% 26 SGP 76,348 0.99% 32% 0.32% 86 LOW 18,207 0.24% 11% 0.03% 27 F 75,840 0.99% 14% 0.13% 87 BAX 18,077 0.23% 10% 0.02% 28 TWX 75,474 0.98% 4% 0.04% 88 RTN 18,070 0.23% 8% 0.02% 29 AIT 74,077 0.96% 16% 0.15% 89 GCI 17,899 0.23% 13% 0.03% 30 DIS 71,579 0.93% 9% 0.09% 90 AT 17,649 0.23% 10% 0.02% 31 HWP 71,269 0.93% 15% 0.13% 91 PBI 17,568 0.23% 12% 0.03% 32 AHP 69,937 0.91% 12% 0.11% 92 COMS 16,948 0.22% 27% 0.06% 33 ABT 68,340 0.89% 19% 0.17% 93 TLAB 16,366 0.21% 43% 0.09% 34 MOB 67,033 0.87% 10% 0.09% 94 GDT 16,363 0.21% 19% 0.04% 35 GTE 64,602 0.84% 12% 0.10% 95 CD 16,286 0.21% 6% 0.01% 36 DD 60,852 0.79% 9% 0.07% 96 CAT 16,096 0.21% 15% 0.03% 37 GM 58,912 0.77% 3% 0.02% 97 COST 15,739 0.20% 10% 0.02% 38 AN 57,160 0.74% 10% 0.08% 98 FDC 15,571 0.20% 6% 0.01% 39 G 56,505 0.73% 17% 0.13% 99 AA 15,420 0.20% 9% 0.02% 40 PEP 55,996 0.73% 13% 0.10% 100 CAG 15,384 0.20% 12% 0.02% 41 WLA 54,982 0.71% 16% 0.12% 101 VO 15,267 0.20% 4% 0.01% 42 ATI 53,943 0.70% 9% 0.06% 102 ITW 15,254 0.20% 14% 0.03% 43 MCD 51,879 0.67% 10% 0.07% 103 K 15,181 0.20% 20% 0.04% 44 CHV 51,540 0.67% 10% 0.07% 104 CCU 14,909 0.19% 8% 0.02% 45 UN 50,335 0.65% 10% 0.07% 105 MU 14,905 0.19% 9% 0.02% 46 EMC 48,428 0.63% 33% 0.21% 106 IMT 14,820 0.19% 10% 0.02% 47 ORCL 46,726 0.61% 44% 0.27% 107 ABS 14,687 0.19% 12% 0.02% 48 MOT 41,262 0.54% 9% 0.05% 108 KR 14,625 0.19% 13% 0.03% 49 TYC 40,918 0.53% 5% 0.03% 109 CAH 14,465 0.19% 11% 0.02% 50 TXN 37,554 0.49% 9% 0.04% 110 HAL 13,896 0.18% 13% 0.02% 51 XRX 36,726 0.48% 10% 0.05% 111 BFO 13,645 0.18% 12% 0.02% 52 NT 35,828 0.47% 13% 0.06% 112 HBOC 13,268 0.17% 14% 0.02% 53 FON 34,052 0.44% 13% 0.06% 113 MAY 13,207 0.17% 12% 0.02% 54 MDT 33,734 0.44% 22% 0.10% 114 IP 12,990 0.17% 2% 0.00% 55 GPS 33,277 0.43% 16% 0.07% 115 RAD 12,694 0.17% 7% 0.01% 56 UMG 32,388 0.42% -1% 0.00% 116 GIS 12,336 0.16% 21% 0.03% 57 BUD 32,140 0.42% 14% 0.06% 117 CZT 12,252 0.16% 31% 0.05% 58 BAX 32,113 0.42% 4% 0.02% 118 COL 11,819 0.15% 3% 0.00% 59 USW 30,690 0.40% 10% 0.04% 119 CLX 11,569 0.15% 14% 0.02% 60 MMM 29,134 0.38% 17% 0.06% 120 WY 11,355 0.15% 5% 0.01%
– 11 –
– 11 –
标普工业股市值加权资本回报率（续）
Market-Capitalization-Weighted Return on Capital for the S&P Industrials continued
原件此处是表格，PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失，下面只剩按列读出的数字，行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
Market % of S&P (x) Market % of S&P (x) Rank Company % of S&P ROIC 1998E Rank Company % of S&P ROIC 1998E Value ROIC Value ROIC 121 GLW 11,295 0.15% 15% 0.02% 181 NWL 5,915 0.08% 14% 0.01% 122 NKE 11,141 0.14% 21% 0.03% 182 TEN 5,899 0.08% 11% 0.01% 123 AMP 11,131 0.14% 13% 0.02% 183 UST 5,835 0.08% 62% 0.05% 124 MHP 10,775 0.14% 9% 0.01% 184 HRC 5,813 0.08% 5% 0.00% 125 OMC 10,438 0.14% 29% 0.04% 185 MYG 5,755 0.07% 10% 0.01% 126 P 10,384 0.13% 9% 0.01% 186 UK 5,750 0.07% 15% 0.01% 127 IPG 10,283 0.13% 14% 0.02% 187 GPC 5,712 0.07% 16% 0.01% 128 WWY 10,214 0.13% 29% 0.04% 188 FO 5,579 0.07% 4% 0.00% 129 CSC 10,103 0.13% 11% 0.01% 189 GP 5,565 0.07% 4% 0.00% 130 AVP 10,081 0.13% 16% 0.02% 190 PX 5,561 0.07% 12% 0.01% 131 PPG 10,078 0.13% 13% 0.02% 191 JCI 5,537 0.07% 9% 0.01% 132 MAS 9,932 0.13% 11% 0.01% 192 EFX 5,535 0.07% 18% 0.01% 133 SEG 9,795 0.13% 22% 0.03% 193 ROH 5,451 0.07% 12% 0.01% 134 JCP 9,791 0.13% 6% 0.01% 194 CEN 5,279 0.07% 8% 0.01% 135 ASC 9,691 0.13% 6% 0.01% 195 VFC 5,264 0.07% 10% 0.01% 136 BSX 9,479 0.12% 7% 0.01% 196 DNB 5,264 0.07% 18% 0.01% 137 ADM 9,344 0.12% 3% 0.00% 197 CC 5,254 0.07% 6% 0.00% 138 GTW 9,206 0.12% 26% 0.03% 198 AAPL 5,253 0.07% -19% -0.01% 139 BDX 9,124 0.12% 11% 0.01% 199 DNY 5,167 0.07% 6% 0.00% 140 SRV 9,056 0.12% 7% 0.01% 200 ETN 5,092 0.07% 12% 0.01% 141 UIS 9,028 0.12% 1% 0.00% 201 BDK 5,030 0.07% 8% 0.01% 142 TJX 8,954 0.12% 14% 0.02% 202 AZO 5,025 0.07% 15% 0.01% 143 HON 8,690 0.11% 14% 0.02% 203 OI 4,884 0.06% 10% 0.01% 144 NXTL 8,576 0.11% -12% -0.01% 204 NOBE 4,854 0.06% 10% 0.01% 145 FJ 8,499 0.11% 9% 0.01% 205 BFB 4,823 0.06% 15% 0.01% 146 SYY 8,442 0.11% 14% 0.02% 206 KLAC 4,726 0.06% 13% 0.01% 147 FD 8,388 0.11% 8% 0.01% 207 PKN 4,691 0.06% 17% 0.01% 148 HSY 8,300 0.11% 16% 0.02% 208 TAN 4,668 0.06% 7% 0.00% 149 MRO 8,229 0.11% 7% 0.01% 209 AGN 4,649 0.06% 11% 0.01% 150 RAL 8,203 0.11% 12% 0.01% 210 IFF 4,647 0.06% 21% 0.01% 151 ROK 8,017 0.10% 10% 0.01% 211 ECL 4,604 0.06% 10% 0.01% 152 DE 7,930 0.10% 12% 0.01% 212 SHW 4,601 0.06% 15% 0.01% 153 UNH 7,814 0.10% 9% 0.01% 213 CBE 4,565 0.06% 8% 0.00% 154 IR 7,790 0.10% 9% 0.01% 214 HAS 4,541 0.06% 12% 0.01% 155 TRB 7,764 0.10% 10% 0.01% 215 TMC 4,541 0.06% 12% 0.01% 156 MAR 7,754 0.10% 14% 0.01% 216 AHC 4,530 0.06% 6% 0.00% 157 APD 7,745 0.10% 10% 0.01% 217 UCC 4,497 0.06% 4% 0.00% 158 OAT 7,571 0.10% 8% 0.01% 218 BFI 4,463 0.06% 8% 0.00% 159 KM 7,548 0.10% 5% 0.01% 219 SEE 4,363 0.06% 15% 0.01% 160 ABX 7,520 0.10% 5% 0.00% 220 IIN 4,354 0.06% 7% 0.00% 161 GT 7,503 0.10% 10% 0.01% 221 HRB 4,265 0.06% 39% 0.02% 162 LTD 7,369 0.10% 4% 0.00% 222 RBD 4,265 0.06% 11% 0.01% 163 UCL 7,347 0.10% 10% 0.01% 223 DJ 4,235 0.06% 6% 0.00% 164 DOV 7,342 0.10% 16% 0.02% 224 NOC 4,189 0.05% 11% 0.01% 165 YUM 7,134 0.09% 4% 0.00% 225 NUE 4,171 0.05% 14% 0.01% 166 PHB 7,049 0.09% 17% 0.02% 226 CCK 4,105 0.05% 7% 0.00% 167 NOVL 6,875 0.09% -6% -0.01% 227 AVY 4,079 0.05% 16% 0.01% 168 GD 6,813 0.09% 12% 0.01% 228 HLT 4,026 0.05% 5% 0.00% 169 DCN 6,601 0.09% 12% 0.01% 229 BMET 4,008 0.05% 20% 0.01% 170 THC 6,492 0.08% 6% 0.01% 230 ALT 3,980 0.05% 6% 0.00% 171 WIN 6,464 0.08% 6% 0.00% 231 TOY 3,969 0.05% 8% 0.00% 172 MAT 6,379 0.08% 18% 0.01% 232 WHR 3,954 0.05% 6% 0.00% 173 GIC 6,266 0.08% 1% 0.00% 233 AZA 3,920 0.05% 5% 0.00% 174 FRO 6,221 0.08% 7% 0.01% 234 KRI 3,705 0.05% 12% 0.01% 175 BR 6,081 0.08% 8% 0.01% 235 CHA 3,686 0.05% 1% 0.00% 176 TRW 6,062 0.08% 11% 0.01% 236 GWW 3,636 0.05% 14% 0.01% 177 AL 6,061 0.08% 7% 0.01% 237 WLL 3,627 0.05% 4% 0.00% 178 BHI 6,025 0.08% 6% 0.00% 238 H 3,626 0.05% 2% 0.00% 179 NYT 5,972 0.08% 9% 0.01% 239 PMTC 3,620 0.05% 75% 0.04% 180 OXY 5,924 0.08% 6% 0.00% 240 ASH 3,605 0.05% 10% 0.00%
Market % of S&P (x) Market % of S&P (x) Rank Company % of S&P ROIC 1998E Rank Company % of S&P ROIC 1998E Value ROIC Value ROIC 121 GLW 11,295 0.15% 15% 0.02% 181 NWL 5,915 0.08% 14% 0.01% 122 NKE 11,141 0.14% 21% 0.03% 182 TEN 5,899 0.08% 11% 0.01% 123 AMP 11,131 0.14% 13% 0.02% 183 UST 5,835 0.08% 62% 0.05% 124 MHP 10,775 0.14% 9% 0.01% 184 HRC 5,813 0.08% 5% 0.00% 125 OMC 10,438 0.14% 29% 0.04% 185 MYG 5,755 0.07% 10% 0.01% 126 P 10,384 0.13% 9% 0.01% 186 UK 5,750 0.07% 15% 0.01% 127 IPG 10,283 0.13% 14% 0.02% 187 GPC 5,712 0.07% 16% 0.01% 128 WWY 10,214 0.13% 29% 0.04% 188 FO 5,579 0.07% 4% 0.00% 129 CSC 10,103 0.13% 11% 0.01% 189 GP 5,565 0.07% 4% 0.00% 130 AVP 10,081 0.13% 16% 0.02% 190 PX 5,561 0.07% 12% 0.01% 131 PPG 10,078 0.13% 13% 0.02% 191 JCI 5,537 0.07% 9% 0.01% 132 MAS 9,932 0.13% 11% 0.01% 192 EFX 5,535 0.07% 18% 0.01% 133 SEG 9,795 0.13% 22% 0.03% 193 ROH 5,451 0.07% 12% 0.01% 134 JCP 9,791 0.13% 6% 0.01% 194 CEN 5,279 0.07% 8% 0.01% 135 ASC 9,691 0.13% 6% 0.01% 195 VFC 5,264 0.07% 10% 0.01% 136 BSX 9,479 0.12% 7% 0.01% 196 DNB 5,264 0.07% 18% 0.01% 137 ADM 9,344 0.12% 3% 0.00% 197 CC 5,254 0.07% 6% 0.00% 138 GTW 9,206 0.12% 26% 0.03% 198 AAPL 5,253 0.07% -19% -0.01% 139 BDX 9,124 0.12% 11% 0.01% 199 DNY 5,167 0.07% 6% 0.00% 140 SRV 9,056 0.12% 7% 0.01% 200 ETN 5,092 0.07% 12% 0.01% 141 UIS 9,028 0.12% 1% 0.00% 201 BDK 5,030 0.07% 8% 0.01% 142 TJX 8,954 0.12% 14% 0.02% 202 AZO 5,025 0.07% 15% 0.01% 143 HON 8,690 0.11% 14% 0.02% 203 OI 4,884 0.06% 10% 0.01% 144 NXTL 8,576 0.11% -12% -0.01% 204 NOBE 4,854 0.06% 10% 0.01% 145 FJ 8,499 0.11% 9% 0.01% 205 BFB 4,823 0.06% 15% 0.01% 146 SYY 8,442 0.11% 14% 0.02% 206 KLAC 4,726 0.06% 13% 0.01% 147 FD 8,388 0.11% 8% 0.01% 207 PKN 4,691 0.06% 17% 0.01% 148 HSY 8,300 0.11% 16% 0.02% 208 TAN 4,668 0.06% 7% 0.00% 149 MRO 8,229 0.11% 7% 0.01% 209 AGN 4,649 0.06% 11% 0.01% 150 RAL 8,203 0.11% 12% 0.01% 210 IFF 4,647 0.06% 21% 0.01% 151 ROK 8,017 0.10% 10% 0.01% 211 ECL 4,604 0.06% 10% 0.01% 152 DE 7,930 0.10% 12% 0.01% 212 SHW 4,601 0.06% 15% 0.01% 153 UNH 7,814 0.10% 9% 0.01% 213 CBE 4,565 0.06% 8% 0.00% 154 IR 7,790 0.10% 9% 0.01% 214 HAS 4,541 0.06% 12% 0.01% 155 TRB 7,764 0.10% 10% 0.01% 215 TMC 4,541 0.06% 12% 0.01% 156 MAR 7,754 0.10% 14% 0.01% 216 AHC 4,530 0.06% 6% 0.00% 157 APD 7,745 0.10% 10% 0.01% 217 UCC 4,497 0.06% 4% 0.00% 158 OAT 7,571 0.10% 8% 0.01% 218 BFI 4,463 0.06% 8% 0.00% 159 KM 7,548 0.10% 5% 0.01% 219 SEE 4,363 0.06% 15% 0.01% 160 ABX 7,520 0.10% 5% 0.00% 220 IIN 4,354 0.06% 7% 0.00% 161 GT 7,503 0.10% 10% 0.01% 221 HRB 4,265 0.06% 39% 0.02% 162 LTD 7,369 0.10% 4% 0.00% 222 RBD 4,265 0.06% 11% 0.01% 163 UCL 7,347 0.10% 10% 0.01% 223 DJ 4,235 0.06% 6% 0.00% 164 DOV 7,342 0.10% 16% 0.02% 224 NOC 4,189 0.05% 11% 0.01% 165 YUM 7,134 0.09% 4% 0.00% 225 NUE 4,171 0.05% 14% 0.01% 166 PHB 7,049 0.09% 17% 0.02% 226 CCK 4,105 0.05% 7% 0.00% 167 NOVL 6,875 0.09% -6% -0.01% 227 AVY 4,079 0.05% 16% 0.01% 168 GD 6,813 0.09% 12% 0.01% 228 HLT 4,026 0.05% 5% 0.00% 169 DCN 6,601 0.09% 12% 0.01% 229 BMET 4,008 0.05% 20% 0.01% 170 THC 6,492 0.08% 6% 0.01% 230 ALT 3,980 0.05% 6% 0.00% 171 WIN 6,464 0.08% 6% 0.00% 231 TOY 3,969 0.05% 8% 0.00% 172 MAT 6,379 0.08% 18% 0.01% 232 WHR 3,954 0.05% 6% 0.00% 173 GIC 6,266 0.08% 1% 0.00% 233 AZA 3,920 0.05% 5% 0.00% 174 FRO 6,221 0.08% 7% 0.01% 234 KRI 3,705 0.05% 12% 0.01% 175 BR 6,081 0.08% 8% 0.01% 235 CHA 3,686 0.05% 1% 0.00% 176 TRW 6,062 0.08% 11% 0.01% 236 GWW 3,636 0.05% 14% 0.01% 177 AL 6,061 0.08% 7% 0.01% 237 WLL 3,627 0.05% 4% 0.00% 178 BHI 6,025 0.08% 6% 0.00% 238 H 3,626 0.05% 2% 0.00% 179 NYT 5,972 0.08% 9% 0.01% 239 PMTC 3,620 0.05% 75% 0.04% 180 OXY 5,924 0.08% 6% 0.00% 240 ASH 3,605 0.05% 10% 0.00%
– 12 –
– 12 –
标普工业股市值加权资本回报率（续）
Market-Capitalization-Weighted Return on Capital for the S&P Industrials continued
原件此处是表格，PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失，下面只剩按列读出的数字，行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
Market % of S&P (x) % of S&P (x) Rank Company % of S&P ROIC 1998E Rank Company Market Value % of S&P ROIC 1998E Value ROIC ROIC 241 APC 3,545 0.05% 6% 0.00% 301 LPX 1,970 0.03% -1% 0.00% 242 EMN 3,488 0.05% 7% 0.00% 302 BMS 1,956 0.03% 11% 0.00% 243 BOL 3,393 0.04% 8% 0.00% 303 N 1,951 0.03% 1% 0.00% 244 TIN 3,392 0.04% 3% 0.00% 304 RYC 1,914 0.02% 24% 0.01% 245 RLM 3,344 0.04% 4% 0.00% 305 NLC 1,879 0.02% 14% 0.00% 246 PH 3,322 0.04% 13% 0.01% 306 CS 1,867 0.02% 8% 0.00% 247 SGI 3,315 0.04% 4% 0.00% 307 FCX 1,862 0.02% 11% 0.00% 248 SUN 3,239 0.04% 25% 0.01% 308 FMC 1,855 0.02% 6% 0.00% 249 PCAR 3,183 0.04% 8% 0.00% 309 BCC 1,778 0.02% 0% 0.00% 250 SVU 3,182 0.04% 10% 0.00% 310 MDP 1,765 0.02% 14% 0.00% 251 ADBE 3,179 0.04% 15% 0.01% 311 KMG 1,701 0.02% 9% 0.00% 252 NEM 3,146 0.04% 6% 0.00% 312 HET 1,636 0.02% 8% 0.00% 253 FLR 3,134 0.04% 7% 0.00% 313 ANDW 1,632 0.02% 21% 0.00% 254 MEA 3,095 0.04% 5% 0.00% 314 CSE 1,625 0.02% 13% 0.00% 255 MII 3,093 0.04% 10% 0.00% 315 CTB 1,582 0.02% 10% 0.00% 256 HUM 3,079 0.04% 11% 0.00% 316 ACV 1,527 0.02% 14% 0.00% 257 AMD 3,051 0.04% 2% 0.00% 317 CUM 1,458 0.02% 8% 0.00% 258 LDW 3,013 0.04% 9% 0.00% 318 NSI 1,455 0.02% 9% 0.00% 259 HRS 2,990 0.04% 9% 0.00% 319 LDG 1,446 0.02% 6% 0.00% 260 LSI 2,978 0.04% 11% 0.00% 320 MIL 1,431 0.02% 10% 0.00% 261 PLL 2,947 0.04% 10% 0.00% 321 ORX 1,388 0.02% 18% 0.00% 262 PDG 2,938 0.04% 0% 0.00% 322 MDR 1,373 0.02% -2% 0.00% 263 DLX 2,849 0.04% 13% 0.00% 323 BLL 1,346 0.02% 6% 0.00% 264 EC 2,847 0.04% 9% 0.00% 324 SMS 1,343 0.02% 13% 0.00% 265 SIAL 2,836 0.04% 16% 0.01% 325 FLE 1,310 0.02% 14% 0.00% 266 AM 2,814 0.04% 8% 0.00% 326 FTL 1,284 0.02% 4% 0.00% 267 WEN 2,808 0.04% 8% 0.00% 327 WTHG 1,272 0.02% 9% 0.00% 268 PD 2,779 0.04% 13% 0.00% 328 TKR 1,269 0.02% 9% 0.00% 269 DDS 2,777 0.04% 6% 0.00% 329 TEK 1,224 0.02% 9% 0.00% 270 TNB 2,670 0.03% 9% 0.00% 330 EGG 1,214 0.02% 8% 0.00% 271 MIR 2,652 0.03% 9% 0.00% 331 BGG 1,197 0.02% 10% 0.00% 272 TMO 2,650 0.03% 9% 0.00% 332 BS 1,194 0.02% 5% 0.00% 273 GR 2,606 0.03% 9% 0.00% 333 PHM 1,174 0.02% 7% 0.00% 274 DRI 2,566 0.03% 1% 0.00% 334 GAP 1,144 0.01% 6% 0.00% 275 HPC 2,560 0.03% 16% 0.01% 335 GRA 1,135 0.01% 3% 0.00% 276 BC 2,539 0.03% 9% 0.00% 336 KBH 1,070 0.01% 9% 0.00% 277 BCR 2,537 0.03% 8% 0.00% 337 DGN 1,062 0.01% 11% 0.00% 278 W 2,508 0.03% 6% 0.00% 338 MCL 1,050 0.01% -3% 0.00% 279 ACK 2,474 0.03% 11% 0.00% 339 PCH 1,050 0.01% 4% 0.00% 280 NAV 2,452 0.03% 8% 0.00% 340 BMG 1,020 0.01% 0% 0.00% 281 SWK 2,409 0.03% 8% 0.00% 341 HP 954 0.01% 11% 0.00% 282 X 2,385 0.03% 11% 0.00% 342 TNV 946 0.01% 12% 0.00% 283 CTX 2,384 0.03% 11% 0.00% 343 PBY 943 0.01% 9% 0.00% 284 UPR 2,370 0.03% 12% 0.00% 344 CYM 934 0.01% 7% 0.00% 285 NSM 2,368 0.03% 8% 0.00% 345 TUP 902 0.01% 10% 0.00% 286 GLK 2,357 0.03% 7% 0.00% 346 RBK 900 0.01% 15% 0.00% 287 SNA 2,313 0.03% 10% 0.00% 347 JOS 881 0.01% 13% 0.00% 288 LIZ 2,282 0.03% 22% 0.01% 348 RDC 816 0.01% 19% 0.00% 289 HM 2,270 0.03% -2% 0.00% 349 Z 805 0.01% 5% 0.00% 290 STJ 2,262 0.03% 12% 0.00% 350 PRD 795 0.01% 8% 0.00% 291 SFA 2,243 0.03% 11% 0.00% 351 CMZ 748 0.01% 9% 0.00% 292 MKG 2,230 0.03% 12% 0.00% 352 RML 732 0.01% 7% 0.00% 293 ACCOB 2,184 0.03% 6% 0.00% 353 NC 726 0.01% 8% 0.00% 294 CNS 2,176 0.03% 10% 0.00% 354 SMI 725 0.01% 7% 0.00% 295 APA 2,145 0.03% 7% 0.00% 355 PZL 671 0.01% 9% 0.00% 296 ADSK 2,125 0.03% 16% 0.00% 356 AR 627 0.01% 5% 0.00% 297 IKN 2,124 0.03% 5% 0.00% 357 FWC 552 0.01% 0% 0.00% 298 KWP 2,022 0.03% 45% 0.01% 358 AS 540 0.01% 6% 0.00% 299 OWC 1,994 0.03% 11% 0.00% 359 HPH 438 0.01% 8% 0.00% 300 CR 1,973 0.03% 14% 0.00% 360 IAD 336 0.00% 6% 0.00% Total 7,693,132 (a) 12.5% (b) 26.8% (c)
Market % of S&P (x) % of S&P (x) Rank Company % of S&P ROIC 1998E Rank Company Market Value % of S&P ROIC 1998E Value ROIC ROIC 241 APC 3,545 0.05% 6% 0.00% 301 LPX 1,970 0.03% -1% 0.00% 242 EMN 3,488 0.05% 7% 0.00% 302 BMS 1,956 0.03% 11% 0.00% 243 BOL 3,393 0.04% 8% 0.00% 303 N 1,951 0.03% 1% 0.00% 244 TIN 3,392 0.04% 3% 0.00% 304 RYC 1,914 0.02% 24% 0.01% 245 RLM 3,344 0.04% 4% 0.00% 305 NLC 1,879 0.02% 14% 0.00% 246 PH 3,322 0.04% 13% 0.01% 306 CS 1,867 0.02% 8% 0.00% 247 SGI 3,315 0.04% 4% 0.00% 307 FCX 1,862 0.02% 11% 0.00% 248 SUN 3,239 0.04% 25% 0.01% 308 FMC 1,855 0.02% 6% 0.00% 249 PCAR 3,183 0.04% 8% 0.00% 309 BCC 1,778 0.02% 0% 0.00% 250 SVU 3,182 0.04% 10% 0.00% 310 MDP 1,765 0.02% 14% 0.00% 251 ADBE 3,179 0.04% 15% 0.01% 311 KMG 1,701 0.02% 9% 0.00% 252 NEM 3,146 0.04% 6% 0.00% 312 HET 1,636 0.02% 8% 0.00% 253 FLR 3,134 0.04% 7% 0.00% 313 ANDW 1,632 0.02% 21% 0.00% 254 MEA 3,095 0.04% 5% 0.00% 314 CSE 1,625 0.02% 13% 0.00% 255 MII 3,093 0.04% 10% 0.00% 315 CTB 1,582 0.02% 10% 0.00% 256 HUM 3,079 0.04% 11% 0.00% 316 ACV 1,527 0.02% 14% 0.00% 257 AMD 3,051 0.04% 2% 0.00% 317 CUM 1,458 0.02% 8% 0.00% 258 LDW 3,013 0.04% 9% 0.00% 318 NSI 1,455 0.02% 9% 0.00% 259 HRS 2,990 0.04% 9% 0.00% 319 LDG 1,446 0.02% 6% 0.00% 260 LSI 2,978 0.04% 11% 0.00% 320 MIL 1,431 0.02% 10% 0.00% 261 PLL 2,947 0.04% 10% 0.00% 321 ORX 1,388 0.02% 18% 0.00% 262 PDG 2,938 0.04% 0% 0.00% 322 MDR 1,373 0.02% -2% 0.00% 263 DLX 2,849 0.04% 13% 0.00% 323 BLL 1,346 0.02% 6% 0.00% 264 EC 2,847 0.04% 9% 0.00% 324 SMS 1,343 0.02% 13% 0.00% 265 SIAL 2,836 0.04% 16% 0.01% 325 FLE 1,310 0.02% 14% 0.00% 266 AM 2,814 0.04% 8% 0.00% 326 FTL 1,284 0.02% 4% 0.00% 267 WEN 2,808 0.04% 8% 0.00% 327 WTHG 1,272 0.02% 9% 0.00% 268 PD 2,779 0.04% 13% 0.00% 328 TKR 1,269 0.02% 9% 0.00% 269 DDS 2,777 0.04% 6% 0.00% 329 TEK 1,224 0.02% 9% 0.00% 270 TNB 2,670 0.03% 9% 0.00% 330 EGG 1,214 0.02% 8% 0.00% 271 MIR 2,652 0.03% 9% 0.00% 331 BGG 1,197 0.02% 10% 0.00% 272 TMO 2,650 0.03% 9% 0.00% 332 BS 1,194 0.02% 5% 0.00% 273 GR 2,606 0.03% 9% 0.00% 333 PHM 1,174 0.02% 7% 0.00% 274 DRI 2,566 0.03% 1% 0.00% 334 GAP 1,144 0.01% 6% 0.00% 275 HPC 2,560 0.03% 16% 0.01% 335 GRA 1,135 0.01% 3% 0.00% 276 BC 2,539 0.03% 9% 0.00% 336 KBH 1,070 0.01% 9% 0.00% 277 BCR 2,537 0.03% 8% 0.00% 337 DGN 1,062 0.01% 11% 0.00% 278 W 2,508 0.03% 6% 0.00% 338 MCL 1,050 0.01% -3% 0.00% 279 ACK 2,474 0.03% 11% 0.00% 339 PCH 1,050 0.01% 4% 0.00% 280 NAV 2,452 0.03% 8% 0.00% 340 BMG 1,020 0.01% 0% 0.00% 281 SWK 2,409 0.03% 8% 0.00% 341 HP 954 0.01% 11% 0.00% 282 X 2,385 0.03% 11% 0.00% 342 TNV 946 0.01% 12% 0.00% 283 CTX 2,384 0.03% 11% 0.00% 343 PBY 943 0.01% 9% 0.00% 284 UPR 2,370 0.03% 12% 0.00% 344 CYM 934 0.01% 7% 0.00% 285 NSM 2,368 0.03% 8% 0.00% 345 TUP 902 0.01% 10% 0.00% 286 GLK 2,357 0.03% 7% 0.00% 346 RBK 900 0.01% 15% 0.00% 287 SNA 2,313 0.03% 10% 0.00% 347 JOS 881 0.01% 13% 0.00% 288 LIZ 2,282 0.03% 22% 0.01% 348 RDC 816 0.01% 19% 0.00% 289 HM 2,270 0.03% -2% 0.00% 349 Z 805 0.01% 5% 0.00% 290 STJ 2,262 0.03% 12% 0.00% 350 PRD 795 0.01% 8% 0.00% 291 SFA 2,243 0.03% 11% 0.00% 351 CMZ 748 0.01% 9% 0.00% 292 MKG 2,230 0.03% 12% 0.00% 352 RML 732 0.01% 7% 0.00% 293 ACCOB 2,184 0.03% 6% 0.00% 353 NC 726 0.01% 8% 0.00% 294 CNS 2,176 0.03% 10% 0.00% 354 SMI 725 0.01% 7% 0.00% 295 APA 2,145 0.03% 7% 0.00% 355 PZL 671 0.01% 9% 0.00% 296 ADSK 2,125 0.03% 16% 0.00% 356 AR 627 0.01% 5% 0.00% 297 IKN 2,124 0.03% 5% 0.00% 357 FWC 552 0.01% 0% 0.00% 298 KWP 2,022 0.03% 45% 0.01% 358 AS 540 0.01% 6% 0.00% 299 OWC 1,994 0.03% 11% 0.00% 359 HPH 438 0.01% 8% 0.00% 300 CR 1,973 0.03% 14% 0.00% 360 IAD 336 0.00% 6% 0.00% Total 7,693,132 (a) 12.5% (b) 26.8% (c)
（a）曾构成 1997 年末标普工业股指数、目前仍存续的 360 家公司的市值之和
(a) Sum of the market capitalization of the 360 still extant companies that used to comprise the year end 1997 S&P Industrials Index
（b）这些公司 1998 年预测 ROIC 的算术平均值。
(b) Arithmetic mean of the 1998E ROIC of these companies.
（c）这些公司 1998 年预测 ROIC 的市值加权值。
(c) Market weighted 1998E ROIC of these companies.
资料来源：FactSet，标准普尔公司，CSFB 估算。
Source: FactSet, S&P Corporation, CSFB estimates.
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– 13 –
美洲 纽约麦迪逊大道十一号，邮编 NY 10010，美国。
Americas Eleven Madison Avenue New York, NY 10010, U.S.A.
原件此处是表格，PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失，下面只剩按列读出的数字，行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
1 212 325 2000 亚特兰大 1 404 656 9500 帕萨迪纳 1 626 395 5100 波士顿 1 617 556 5500 费城 1 215 851 1000 布宜诺斯艾利斯 1 541 394 3100 缅因州波特兰 1 207 780 6210 芝加哥 1 312 750 3000 旧金山 1 415 836 7600 休斯顿 1 713 220 6700 圣保罗 55 11 822 4862 墨西哥城 1 525 202 6000 多伦多 1 416 352 4500 欧洲 卡伯特广场 1 号 伦敦 E14 4QJ，英国 44 171 888 8888 阿姆斯特丹 31 20 575 4444 巴黎 33 1 40 76 8888 布达佩斯 36 1 202 2188 布拉格 42 2 248 10937 法兰克福 49 69 75380 维也纳 43 1 512 3023 日内瓦 41 22 707 0130 华沙 48 22 695 0050 马德里 34 1 532 0303 楚格 41 41 726 1020 米兰 39 2 7702 1 苏黎世 41 1 335 7711 莫斯科 7 501 967 8200 亚太 交易广场三座 康乐广场 8 号 香港中环 852 2101 6000 奥克兰 64 9 302 5500 上海 86 21 6219 0808 北京 86 10 6410 6611 新加坡 65 538 6322 墨尔本 61 3 9 280 1666 悉尼 61 2 9394 4400 孟买 91 22 284 6888 台北 8862 2718 5919 大阪 81 6 243 0789 东京 81 3 5404 9000 首尔 82 2 3707 3700 惠灵顿 64 4 474 4400
1 212 325 2000 Atlanta 1 404 656 9500 Pasadena 1 626 395 5100 Boston 1 617 556 5500 Philadelphia 1 215 851 1000 Buenos Aires 1 541 394 3100 Portland, ME 1 207 780 6210 Chicago 1 312 750 3000 San Francisco 1 415 836 7600 Houston 1 713 220 6700 São Paulo 55 11 822 4862 Mexico City 1 525 202 6000 Toronto 1 416 352 4500 Europe One Cabot Square London E14 4QJ, England 44 171 888 8888 Amsterdam 31 20 575 4444 Paris 33 1 40 76 8888 Budapest 36 1 202 2188 Prague 42 2 248 10937 Frankfurt 49 69 75380 Vienna 43 1 512 3023 Geneva 41 22 707 0130 Warsaw 48 22 695 0050 Madrid 34 1 532 0303 Zug 41 41 726 1020 Milan 39 2 7702 1 Zurich 41 1 335 7711 Moscow 7 501 967 8200 Asia Pacific Three Exchange Square 8 Connaught Place Central, Hong Kong 852 2101 6000 Auckland 64 9 302 5500 Shanghai 86 21 6219 0808 Beijing 86 10 6410 6611 Singapore 65 538 6322 Melbourne 61 3 9 280 1666 Sydney 61 2 9394 4400 Mumbai 91 22 284 6888 Taipei 8862 2718 5919 Osaka 81 6 243 0789 Tokyo 81 3 5404 9000 Seoul 82 2 3707 3700 Wellington 64 4 474 4400
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