我给你的建议

2026 · 随笔 · 原文约 1938 词
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我给你们带来了什么

What I Have For You

Ray Dalio, 2026-02-19

Ray Dalio, 2026-02-19

大约 30 年前,我养成了一个习惯,把我要追求的目标以及实现目标的方法(也就是我的原则)写下来,从那时起一直坚持至今。我一路积累的这些原则,让我和我的公司桥水基金取得了超乎我们最疯狂梦想的成功。这些年来,我还开发了一些“工具”,主要是应用程序,帮助我们在这些原则的指导下运作。在我人生的这个过渡阶段,我的主要目标是通过传递这些原则和工具,帮助他人取得成功。

About 30 years ago I got in the habit of writing down what I was going after and how I went after it (i.e. my principles) so I’ve done that ever since. The principles I accumulated along the way made me and my company Bridgewater successful beyond our wildest dreams. Over these years I also developed “tools,” mostly apps, that helped us to operate by these principles. At this transition stage in my life, my main goal is to help others be successful by passing along these principles and tools.

我最重要的一些原则,是关于拥有原则以及以有原则的方式思考。虽然那些对我行之有效的原则非常宝贵,我会把它们传递给你们参考,但我相信,最重要的是你们要自己进行有原则的思考,从而拥有自己清晰阐述并内化于心、对你们行之有效的原则。当我提到“你们”时,我指的是你们每个人,也指你们所有集体中的每个个体(即你们的家庭、组织、社区、国家等集体)。因此,我希望做到:1)清晰地传达我所说的有原则的思考是什么意思,以便你们能考虑其价值;2)帮助你们获得任何你们想要且对你们有益的原则。

My most important principles are about having principles and thinking in a principled way. While the principles that have worked well for me have been invaluable and I will pass them along for your consideration, I believe that what is most important is that you think for yourself in a principled way so that you have your own clearly articulated and internalized principles that work well for you. When I refer to “you,” I am referring to you individually and you collectively in all of your collectives (i.e., your families, your organizations, your communities, your countries, etc.). For these reasons I hope to 1) clearly convey what I mean by principled thinking so that you can consider the merits of it and 2) help you get whatever principles you want that are good for you.

我所说的有原则的思考是什么意思

What I Mean by Principled Thinking

我所说的有原则的思考,是指拥抱现实,看清现实如何运作,并拥有应对现实的有效方法(即原则)。现实像一台机器一样运作,其中存在着因果关系,因此通过理解这些关系并懂得如何与现实良好互动,你们就能做出更好的决策,从而获得更好的结果和更好的生活。

By principled thinking I mean embracing reality, seeing how reality works and having effective ways for dealing with reality (i.e., principles). Reality works like a machine that has cause:effect relationships so by understanding these relationships and knowing how to interact with reality well, you can make better decisions which will give you better outcomes and a better life.

当一个人通过这种有原则的视角看待事物时,他会发现,大多数事情之所以反复发生,基本是出于相同的原因。换句话说,大多数事情只是以前发生过很多次的“又一件那样的事”,并且有明确的妥善处理方法。因此,从常规思考转向有原则的思考,1)人们会从置身于一团乱麻般互不相关的事物中,转变为遇到数量少得多的、熟悉的事物类型;2)人们会发展出经过验证的、行之有效的原则,来妥善应对自己的现实。通过这种有原则的思考,生活会变得更轻松,因为事物的类型比事物本身的数量要少得多,而且应对起来也更直接、更有效。例如,想想击打投向你不同类型投球时的情形。当你练习击打曲线球、快速球和滑球时,你会自然地学会区分它们,并本能地运用原则去妥善应对每一种球,从而成为一个更好的击球手。

When one sees things through this principled lens, one sees that most things happen over and over again for basically the same reasons. In other words, most everything is just “another one of those” that has happened many times before and has clear ways of being dealt with well. So, in going from regular thinking to principled thinking 1) one goes from being in a blizzard of unrelated things to encountering a far fewer number of types of things that are familiar and 2) one develops tried and true principles for dealing with one’s realities well. By thinking in this principled way, life becomes easier because there are many fewer types of things than there are things and one’s dealing with them is more straightforward and effective. For example, think about how batting against different types of pitches being thrown at you works. As you practice batting against curveballs, fast balls, and sliders you naturally learn to distinguish between them and to instinctively use principles for dealing with each well so you become a much better batter.

有更高层次的原则,本质上是关于如何对待生活的哲学(比如宗教);也有各种不同程度的较低层次的原则,用于做出更具策略性的决策。当一个人选择自己的一套原则组合时,他实际上就选择了他的人生哲学,或者说他自己的“宗教”,范围从哲学层面一直延伸到策略层面。

There are higher level principles that are essentially philosophies about how to approach life (like religions) and there are varying degrees of lower level principles for making more tactical decisions. When one chooses one’s own mix of principles, one essentially chooses one’s philosophy of life or one’s own religion that goes from the philosophical to the tactical.

我要传递的原则

The Principles I’m Passing Along

我要传递的原则和工具涉及生活、工作、经济和投资这四个领域,因为正是这四个领域我付出了巨大努力,形成了原则,并且积累了可供你们查看的业绩记录,以评估这些原则的效果。我希望以两种形式呈现这四个领域各自的原则:短视频和书籍。迄今为止,我已经为其中三个领域制作了视频和书籍,其余领域的还在制作中。

The principles and tools that I’m passing along are about life, work, economics, and investments because those four areas are the ones I’ve worked hard on, developed principles for, and have a built track records that you can look at to assess how well these principles worked. I hope to present the principles for each of these four areas in two forms: short videos and books. Thus far I have created videos and books for three of the four areas. The others are in the works.

目前可用的有:

Currently available are:

1)五个短视频:

其中包括三个动画视频,分别提供了以下内容的精简版:1)《成功的原则》中的生活原则(此处链接);2)《经济机器是如何运转的》中的经济原则(此处链接);3)我的著作《应对变化中的世界秩序的原则》中的核心观点(此处链接)。还有一个 16 分钟的 TED 演讲,简要阐述了我的工作原则(此处链接)。这些内容都是免费的,并且被认为非常有用。它们合计已被观看超过 5000 万次,点赞与点踩的比例为 98%。

1) Five Short Videos: These include three animated videos that provide distilled versions of 1) the life principles in “Principles for Success” ( here ), 2) the economic principles in “How the Economic Machine Works” ( here ) and 3) the key ideas from my book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order ( here ). There is also a 16 minute TED Talk that briefly conveys my work principles ( here ). They are free and have been assessed to be very useful. Together they have been watched a total of over 50 million times and have a 98% ratio of likes to dislikes.

2)四本书:

迄今为止,我的书籍已售出超过 600 万册,并广受好评。《原则:生活与工作》一书以现在书籍常见的所有形式提供——纸质版、电子版和有声书(此处链接),价格与同类产品相当。你们可以在 principles.com 网站上看到一些推荐语。这本书也以应用程序的形式免费提供,名为“Principles in Action”(此处链接)。“Principles in Action”是为那些想要最深入研究生活和工作原则的人准备的。它包含了我公司桥水联合公司中这些原则实际运用的真实视频案例,以及一个“教练”工具,帮助人们找到最适合其特定情况的原则、记录他们自己的原则并方便查阅。它以最容易消化的形式包含了一切内容,而且是免费的。到目前为止,“Principles in Action”已被下载超过 42 万次,平均评分为 4.9 分(满分 5 分)。

2) Four Books: So far over 6 million copies of my books have been sold and have been extremely well received. Principles: Life & Work is available as a book in all the usual ways books are now available—in paper, digital, and audio here at the usual costs for such things. You can see some of the endorsements of it on principles.com . The book is also available in app form for free in “Principles in Action” here . “Principles in Action” is for people who want to delve most deeply into the life and work principles. It includes real life video cases of the principles in action at my company, Bridgewater Associates, and a “Coach” tool that helps people find the best principles for their particular situations, capture their own principles and have easy access to them. It contains everything in the most digestible form and is free. So far “Principles in Action” has been downloaded over 420,000 times and has received an average review of 4.9 (out of 5).

我撰写了《应对大债务危机的原则》,这是为那些对债务周期如何运作以及如何应对感兴趣的人准备的。它可以在亚马逊上购买纸质版(此处链接),或者免费下载 PDF 版(此处链接)。迄今为止,已有超过 100 万份被售出或下载,并受到知名经济学家和政策制定者的好评。

I wrote “Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises,” which is for people who are interested in how debt cycles work and how to navigate them. It’s available in print form on Amazon ( here ) or for free as a pdf ( here ). Thus far over 1 million copies have been sold or downloaded and it has been favorably reviewed by leading economists and policy makers.

《应对变化中的世界秩序的原则》是一项关于过去主要帝国兴衰的研究,将当今的经济、政治和政策状况置于宏观图景的背景下审视。该书获得了亨利·基辛格、比尔·盖茨、杰米·戴蒙等人的好评,他们发现这本书是理解当今世界正在如何变化的必读之作。

“Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order,” is a study on the rises and declines of past leading empires that puts today’s economic, political, and policy situation into perspective of the big picture. It was positively reviewed by Henry Kissinger, Bill Gates, Jamie Dimon, and many others who have found it essential reading to understand the ways in which the world is now changing.

我最新的一本书《国家如何破产:大周期》回答了以下问题:巨额政府债务是否威胁我们的集体福祉?债务增长是否存在极限?像美国这样规模庞大且重要的储备货币国家真的会破产吗——那会是什么样子?几十年来,政客、政策制定者和投资者一直在争论这些问题,但答案一直 elusive(难以捉摸)。

My latest book, “How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle” answers the questions: Do big government debts threaten our collective well-being? Are there limits to debt growth? Can a big, important reserve currency country like the United States really go broke—and what would that look like? For decades, politicians, policymakers, and investors have debated these questions, but the answers have eluded them.

3)应众多读者要求,为各个年龄段的读者提供一个更简化的版本,我撰写了《成功的原则》,可在亚马逊(此处链接)或通过当地书店购买。这是一本快速、有趣、有插图且富有价值的读物,总结了我大部头著作《原则:生活与工作》中最重要的生活原则。希望你们,或者你们赠予此书的人,会喜欢它。

3) In response to lots of requests for a simpler version of Principles for readers of all ages, I wrote “Principles for Success”, which is available on Amazon or through your local bookseller. It’s a quick, entertaining, illustrated and valuable read that summarizes the most important life principles in my big book, “Principles: Life & Work”. I hope you, or whoever you gift it to, love it.

4)自从我出版了《原则:生活与工作》以来,许多人要求我传递书中描述的工具。由于这些请求,我对部分工具进行了重新设计和改进,以便它们能被桥水基金之外的许多人安全地使用,并且比我写书时更好用。我将传递的头两个工具是免费的 PrinciplesYou 和 Principles Dot Collector。

4) Since I published “Principles: Life & Work,” many people have asked me to pass along the tools that I described in it. Because of these requests, I had some of the tools reengineered and improved so they could be used by lots of people outside Bridgewater in a secure way and be even better than they were when I wrote the book. The first two of these tools that I will be passing along are PrinciplesYou, which is free, and Principles Dot Collector.

PrinciplesYou 是一个性格画像测试,帮助人们了解自己,也了解他们正在与之互动的他人。我发现心理测量测试对于理解不同人不同的思维方式非常有价值,而获得这种理解对于个人发展、找到合适的工作以及组建团队都极为可贵。

PrinciplesYou is a personality profile test that helps people understand themselves and understand others they are interacting with. I’ve found psychometric tests to be invaluable in understanding different people’s different approaches to thinking and that achieving that understanding is invaluable for people’s personal development, finding their right job fit, and building teams.

过去,我使用过多种性格画像测试,因为从未找到一种能给我想要的一切。因此,在过去几年里,我邀请了三位杰出的心理测量学家——亚当·格兰特、布莱恩·利特尔和约翰·戈尔登——与我合作,开发了一个大约需要 40 分钟、能提供比任何同等长度测试都更全面的人们的思维偏好描述的测试。它还为参加测试的成对或成组的人提供更好的人际交往指导。

In the past, I used a number of personality profile tests because I never found one that gave me everything I was looking for. For that reason over the last couple of years, I engaged three great psychometricians - Adam Grant, Brian Little and John Golden - to work with me to build a test that takes about 40 minutes and provides far more comprehensive descriptions of people’s thinking preferences than any other tests of comparable length. It also provides better interpersonal guidance to pairs and/or groups of people who take it.

这项评估现在免费提供给所有人(此处链接),并可作为组织工具(此处链接)。Principles Dot Collector 提供关于人们想法的持续实时反馈和洞见,可作为 Zoom 应用平台内的一个应用使用。

The assessment is now available for free to everyone here and as a tool for organizations here . The Principles Dot Collector, which provides continuous real-time feedback and insights about what people are thinking, is available as an app within the Zoom apps platform.

5)我和我的儿子马克·达利奥共同创立了 OceanX,目标是激励下一代海洋科学家和探险家,就像雅克·库斯托在我小时候激励了我一样。OceanX 是一个由探险家、科学家和故事讲述者组成的深度参与的全球社区,致力于教育、激励并保护海洋。为了带你们一起踏上这段旅程,我与国家地理、BBC 和詹姆斯·卡梅隆合作推出了《OceanXplorers》系列,你们现在可以在国家地理频道、Disney+ 和 Hulu 上观看。OceanX 团队还创作了一系列儿童章节书《OceanX Adventures》,每个谜团都基于真实的海洋科学研究和发现,并充满了关于海洋世界的迷人事实。

5) With my son Mark Dalio I co-founded OceanX with a goal of inspiring the next generation of ocean scientists and explorers, just like Jacques Cousteau inspired me as a kid. OceanX is a deeply engaged global community of explorers, scientists, and storytellers dedicated to educating, inspiring, and protecting the oceans. To bring you along on this journey, I’ve partnered with National Geographic, the BBC, and James Cameron on the OceanXplorers series, which you can watch now on the National Geographic Channel, Disney+, and Hulu. The OceanX team has also created a series of children’s chapter books, OceanX Adventures , each mystery is based on actual oceanic science research and discoveries, and is filled with fascinating facts about the ocean world.

6)Digital Ray 是一个基于人工智能的导师平台,通过借鉴 Ray 数十年的经验来回答你们的问题。Digital Ray 还可以利用你们个人 PrinciplesYou 评估的结果数据——这是一种帮助人们了解自己和他们正在与之互动的人的性格画像测试。立即注册测试版(此处链接)!

6) Digital Ray is a platform for AI-powered mentorship that generates responses to your questions by drawing from Ray’s decades of experience. Digital Ray can also utilize the results data from your individual PrinciplesYou assessment — a personality profile test that helps people understand themselves and others they are interacting with. Sign up for the beta here !

7)达利奥市场原则在线课程(与 WMI 合作)是一个 30 小时的强大在线课程,通过理解驱动市场、经济和投资表现的原则来掌握市场。你们可以按照自己的节奏学习,同时连接到一个由志同道合的投资者组成的全球社区。你们可以在此处(链接)了解更多关于该课程的信息。

7) The Dalio Market Principles Online Program (with WMI) is a 30-hour robust online curriculum to master the market by understanding the principles that drive markets, economics, and investment performance. You can learn at your own pace while connecting to a global community of like-minded investors. You can learn more information about the program here .

除了提供这些原则和工具,我还在与人们互动,讨论这些原则以及如何通过原则的视角看待世界正在发生的事情,平台包括 LinkedIn、X(原推特)、Facebook、Instagram、Threads 和 YouTube。

In addition to providing these principles and tools, I’m interacting with people about these principles and about what’s happening in the world through the lens of principles on , , X , , Threads ,

, and

TikTok

.

, and TikTok .

在未来的几个月和几年里,我计划分享更多书籍和动画。如果你们想了解更多关于这些项目的信息,可以在这里注册我的邮件列表:https://economicprinciples.org/subscribe

In the coming months and years I plan to share a few more books and animations. If you’d like to hear more about those projects, you can sign up for my email list here: https://economicprinciples.org/subscribe

在那之后,我将完成我人生的这个过渡阶段,然后就此收笔,归于沉寂。

After that, I will be done and go quiet as I will have completed this transition phase in my life.

你们可能会如何利用现在可用的这些内容

How You Might Approach What’s Now Available

如果你还没有看过这些内容,我建议你先挑选那些与你感兴趣的原则(生活、工作或经济)相关的短视频,如果你想深入了解,再进一步阅读最适合你的那本书。如果你想要一个包罗万象的单一入口,“行动中的原则”应用程序是你的最佳选择。如果你在寻找指导,可以试试“数字雷”——这个工具让我能与任何愿意交流的人随时对话,时长不限。数字雷可以通过文本和语音与你互动,所以你现在就能像和我本人交谈一样,与它探讨生活和工作的话题。如果你感兴趣,可以在这里注册。

If you haven’t seen any of this, I suggest that you pick the short videos about the type of principles that you’re interested in (life, work, or economics) and, if you want more, delve into the book that most suits you. If you want one thing that has everything in it, the “Principles in Action” app is your best option. And if you’re looking for coaching, you can check out Digital Ray — a tool that allows me to speak with everyone who wishes to, for as long as they want, at any time. Digital Ray can interact with you via both text and voice, so you can now have conversations with it about life and work just like you would have with me. If you’re interested, you can sign up here .

欢迎你在社交媒体上与我保持联系,并给我提供你的想法和建议,因为我喜欢与他人互动,倾听他们对我的分享的看法。

I welcome you to stay in touch with me on social media and provide me with your thoughts and suggestions as I enjoy interacting with others and hearing their thoughts on what I’m sharing.