2011 年股东大会 · 下午场
关于戴维·索科尔和路博润的两点澄清
Two clarifications on David Sokol and Lubrizol
沃伦·巴菲特好的。请大家就座。我看看罗恩·奥尔森是不是坐在前排。罗恩,你在吗?好的。罗恩想——我们给你递个麦克风。因为我们在做会议记录,想把所有内容都准确记下来,罗恩有一两个点想就我提到的日期做些更正。所以我们要把麦克风给他。
WARREN BUFFETTOK. If you'll all be seated. I can't see whether Ron Olson is in the front row or not. Ron, are you here? OK. Ron wanted to — well, we'll get you a mic. Because we're transcribing this and we want to get it all corrected, Ron has one point or two points that he wants to correct in terms of dates that I used. So we are going to give the microphone to him.
罗恩·奥尔森倒不是说这些细节有多关键,但既然我们在创建记录,我想澄清两点。伯克希尔的律所,也就是芒格·托尔斯·奥尔森律师事务所,和路博润的律师合作,整理出了沃伦所说的那份描述交易背景的路博润委托书。作为伯克希尔的律师,我们是从 3 月 15 日那周开始收集与伯克希尔参与相关的信息,主要是戴维·索科尔和沃伦的情况。沃伦,今天早上你和大家说明情况时,我记得你把这项工作的开始时间放到了接下来的一周。所以我只想澄清一下,我们在收集信息时,那周对戴维·索科尔进行了几次访谈。其次,在描述伯克希尔防止不当或疏忽行为的内部政策时,伯克希尔维持着——在交易领域被称为限制性清单的东西。这份限制性清单上列着伯克希尔正在买入、卖出或有特殊利益的证券,它禁止伯克希尔的公司高管或子公司高管在未经首席财务官马克·汉伯格同意的情况下交易这些证券。这就是我想澄清的,沃伦。
RON OLSONNot that they're all that telling, but I thought since we are creating a record, I wanted to clarify two points. The Berkshire law firm, namely Munger, Tolles & Olson worked with the Lubrizol counsel in pulling together what Warren described as Lubrizol's proxy describing the background of the transaction. We, as counsel for Berkshire, started to work on that gathering of facts pertaining to Berkshire's involvement, essentially David Sokol's and Warren's, during the week of March 15. Warren, in speaking to you about the facts this morning, I believe, placed the beginning of that work in the subsequent week. So I simply wanted to clarify that as we gathered the facts, and that gathering included several interviews of David Sokol during that week. Secondly, in describing internal policies at Berkshire to protect against misbehavior or negligent behavior, Berkshire maintains a — something that those in the trading business describe as restricted lists. And on that restricted list are any securities in which Berkshire is buying, selling, has a peculiar interest, and that prohibits any of the corporate officers or the top officers of the subsidiaries of Berkshire from participating in trades in those securities without the consent of the CFO, Marc Hamburg. That is what I wanted to clarify, Warren.
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢你,罗恩。
WARREN BUFFETTThanks, Ron.
芒格仍看好电动车制造商比亚迪
Munger still bullish on electric-car maker BYD
沃伦·巴菲特好的。我们继续往下进行。我们会一直开到 3 点 30 分,然后休会几分钟,再接着开正式会议。
WARREN BUFFETTOK. We'll move right along. And we're going to go to 3:30 and then we'll adjourn for a couple minutes, and then we'll go to the regular meeting.
沃伦·巴菲特卡罗尔再次带头发问。
WARREN BUFFETTCarol again leads off.
卡罗尔·卢米斯沃伦和查理,2008 年中美能源购入比亚迪股份时,你们都对比亚迪及其董事长王传福表达了非常正面的看法。比亚迪现在作为一项长期投资,还和当初购入股份时一样具有吸引力吗?如果是,为什么?比亚迪近期出现的一些无法解释的产品发布延迟,是否影响了你们对其运营的信心?
CAROL LOOMISWarren and Charlie, both of your expressed a very positive view of BYD and its chairman, Wang Chuanfu, when MidAmerican bought its stake in 2008. Does BYD remain as attractive a long-term investment now as it was when you acquired your stake? If so, why? Has BYD's recent pattern of unexplained product launch delays affected your confidence in the operation?
沃伦·巴菲特查理是比亚迪方面的专家,所以我让他先回答这个问题。
WARREN BUFFETTCharlie is the BYD expert, so I’m going to let him start on that one.
查理·芒格嗯,当然,股价还远高于伯克希尔买入的价格,所以几乎可以这么说,它不像当初那么便宜了。任何一家想和比亚迪一样快速前进、同时在多条战线出击的公司,都难免会遇到各种延迟和故障。但我要说的是,我对当前的情况相当鼓舞,而且我也预料到了会有延迟和故障。他们在汽车分销上遇到了麻烦,但他们试图连续六年每年让汽车销量翻倍,前五次都成功了。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, of course, the price is still way higher than the price Berkshire paid, and so almost by definition it's not quite as cheap as it was then. Any company that tries to move as fast as BYD does, and on as many fronts, is going to have various delays and glitches. But I would say I'm quite encouraged by what's going on, and I expect delays and glitches. They had trouble in the auto distribution, but they tried to double auto sales every year for six years, and it worked the first five times. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特我没什么要补充的。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTI have nothing to add. (Laughter)
靠交易石油赚钱太难了
Making money by trading oil is too hard
沃伦·巴菲特好的。第 10 个问题。
WARREN BUFFETTOK. Number 10.
现场股东嗨,沃伦和查理。我叫凯瑟琳·布罗德(音),来自加利福尼亚州洛杉矶。我主要投资大宗商品和大宗商品股票。我 2007 年开始买入石油。2008 年夏天,我们达到了石油泡沫的顶峰。那时我反手做空石油,赚了不少。2009 年,我再次开始买入石油和石油股票,至今做得相当不错。但考虑到当今世界的状况和油价,我开始质疑我的投资。这是又一个石油泡沫吗?石油见顶了吗?我应该持仓不动吗?应该做空石油吗?我应该彻底退出石油,转向其他大宗商品或其他投资吗?所以我的问题是,你们对石油的看法是什么?
AUDIENCE MEMBERHi, Warren and Charlie. My name is Catherine Brood (PH). I'm from Los Angeles, California. I invest primarily in commodities and commodity equities. I started out back 2007 buying oil. In the summer of 2008, we reached the peak of the oil bubble. That's when I reversed my holdings and started shorting oil. I made a nice profit. In 2009, I started buying oil again and oil equities, and I've been doing pretty well. But given the status of the world today and the price of oil, I'm questioning my investments. Is this another oil bubble? Has oil reached its peak? Should I keep my holdings? Should I short oil? Should I exit oil altogether and move into other commodities or other investments? So my question to you is, what your sentiments regarding oil?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我得说,你做得比我们好太多了。(笑)我想在座各位更想听你讲。我们确实做过一次石油头寸——不记得是多少年前了。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, I would say you've done a whole lot better than we have. (Laughs) I think the crowd would rather hear from you. We actually did take a position in oil — I don't know how many years ago.
查理·芒格很久以前。
CHARLIE MUNGERA long time ago.
沃伦·巴菲特那是很久以前了。
WARREN BUFFETTA long time ago.
查理·芒格当时每桶 10 美元。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERIt was $10 a barrel. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特不过话说回来,也不算太久远。那是 1990 年代的事,虽然我们见过比这便宜得多的油价。1932 年,东得克萨斯石油每桶卖 10 美分。我们确实不知道。我的意思是,很显然,你面对的是一个有限资源。我不清楚全球日产量是 8800 万桶,还是——它之前回落到了 8500 万桶左右,但肯定会有所反弹,所以如果当前数字已经接近每天 8800 万桶,我不会感到意外。每天从地下采出这么多石油,量很大。当然,人们也找到了——新的勘探前沿,但你——你毕竟往地球里插入了大量的吸管,而总量是有限的。所以,我能向你保证的一件事是——几乎可以保证——石油将来一定会贵得多。说来有意思,你觉得美国目前有多少口产油井?答案是大约 50 万口。你知道,有那些低产井,还有在查理家附近那些已经产油一百年的井。
WARREN BUFFETTIt wasn't that long ago though, incidentally. That was in the 1990s, although we've seen oil a lot cheaper than that. East Texas Oil sold for a dime a barrel in 1932. The — we really don't know. I mean, obviously, you're dealing with a finite resource. I don't know whether the world is up to 88 million barrels or — it was down around 85 million barrels, but there's got to be some comeback, so I wouldn't be surprised if the current figure is getting pretty close to 88 million barrels a day. That's a lot of oil to take out of the ground every day. And, of course, there are — new frontiers have been found, but you are — you've stuck a lot of straws into the Earth, and it is a finite number. So, the one thing I can promise you is — almost promise you — is that oil will sell for a lot more someday. Interestingly enough, how many producing oil wells do you think there are in the United States? The answer is something like 500,000. You know, there's these stripper wells, there's wells out near Charlie that have been going for a hundred years.
查理·芒格是的。
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah.
沃伦·巴菲特但我们现在已经勘探过很多地方了。当然,从美国公司的角度来看,目前的情况是,现在发现石油的那些较小的国家,在授予开采权方面,比 50 年、75 年或 100 年前的人要聪明得多,所以他们达成的协议远比当年我们在全球勘探时最初遇到的情况更精明。但我完全不知道——你知道,我们——照惯例,BNSF 会对一部分石油做套保,因为他们显然消耗巨量柴油——我向他们建议过,虽然如何运营 BNSF 是他们自己说了算——但我真的认为我们猜不准油价。我还觉得,如果我们能猜准油价,我们就不需要经营铁路了。我的意思是,经营那条铁路要付出大量的努力和时间。如果我们懂得只要坐在房间里交易石油就能赚钱,为什么不直接去干那个呢?因此,我其实不——我们不套保——嗯,就伯克希尔母公司的政策而言,我们不对任何大宗商品做套保。我们的一些子公司会做,这没问题。它们为自己的业务负责。但极少有哪种大宗商品,是我认为自己能——能在未来六个月或一年里知道其走势的。有一点我相当肯定,就是我们在今天早上谈过的,那就是美元会随着时间推移变得越来越不值钱,所以大多数东西的美元价格都会上涨,而且可能涨得非常厉害。至于涨幅是否足够让你在名义收益纳税后仍保有同样的购买力,这又是另外一个问题了。我真的认为,长期来看,一个聪明人通过思考资产——生产性资产——能够赚到更多钱,而不是通过投机大宗商品,或者就此而言,固定收益的美元投资,但或许这是我个人的偏见。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTBut we have looked in a lot of places now. And what's happening, of course, from the standpoint of United States companies, is that the smaller countries where oil is being found now are quite a bit smarter about how they grant their concessions than people were 50 or 75 or 100 years ago, so that they drive much more intelligent deals than was originally the case when we went exploring around the world. But I have no idea — you know, we — traditionally, BNSF had hedged a certain amount of oil and — because they obviously use huge quantities of diesel — and I suggested to them — although how they run the BNSF is up to them — but I really didn't think we could guess the price of oil. And I thought if we could guess the price of oil, we didn't need to run the railroad. I mean, it was a — took a lot of effort, time to run that railroad. And if we know how to make money just sitting in a room trading oil, why not do that instead? So I don't really — we don't hedge — well, in terms of Berkshire's parent company policies, we don't hedge anything in the way of commodities. Some of our subsidiaries do, and that's fine. They're responsible for their businesses. But there are very, very few commodities that I've ever thought I was going to — would know the direction of their movement in the next six months or a year. The one thing I'm quite convinced of, as we talked about this morning, is the fact the dollar will become less valuable over time, so that the dollar price of most things will go up, and maybe go up very substantially. Whether they go up enough so that you have the same amount of purchasing power after you pay tax on your nominal gains is another question. I really think that an intelligent person can make more money, over time, thinking about assets that — productive assets — rather than speculating in commodities, or for that matter, fixed dollar investments, but that's maybe my own bias. Charlie?
查理·芒格嗯,如果我们从一开始就只做石油,我确信我们的业绩不会有现在这么好。在我看来,这一点非常明显。所以我认为,我们做的事情,比你试图做的事情要容易得多。
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, if we'd done nothing but oil from the very beginning, I'm confident that we would not have done nearly as well as we have. To me, that's perfectly obvious. So I think what we've done is much easier than what you're trying to do.
沃伦·巴菲特而我们喜欢容易的事情。
WARREN BUFFETTAnd we like easy.
查理·芒格我们没想给自己找不必要的麻烦。
CHARLIE MUNGERWe're not trying to make it any more difficult than we have to.
沃伦·巴菲特我确实不知道在这类活动里,怎么才能拥有优势。我的意思是,如果你想要去判断什么时候该做多或做空石油、天然气、铜、棉花或诸如此类的东西,我不知道有谁,能让我觉得他们在未来十年拥有做这件事的优势。但我确实知道有些人,我认为他们在投资普通股方面,也许还有不良债券方面,会拥有相当显著的优势。
WARREN BUFFETTI really don't know any way to have an edge in that sort of activity. I mean, if you are going to try and figure out whether when to be long or short oil, or natural gas, or copper or cotton or whatever, I don't know of people who I feel would have an edge in trying to do that over the next 10 years. But I do know people where I think they'd have a very significant edge in investing in common stocks, and maybe distressed bonds, for that matter, too.
查理·芒格是啊,石油交易对那些贿赂尼日利亚的人来说,效果最好。那不是我们涉足的领域。
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, trading oil worked best of all for the people who bribed Nigeria. That's not our milieu.
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,这个见解我倒是头一回听说。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTWell, that's an insight I hadn't heard before. (Laughter)
关于索科尔与路博润一事的澄清的再澄清
Clarification of the clarification on Sokol and Lubrizol
沃伦·巴菲特贝基?哦,我看到罗恩在这儿。
WARREN BUFFETTBecky? Oh, I got Ron here.
罗恩·奥尔森我想对我之前做的澄清,再做一点澄清。(笑声)这话听起来像律师,对吧?
RON OLSONI wanted to clarify my clarification. (Laughter) Sounds like a lawyer, doesn't it?
沃伦·巴菲特听着就像个律师。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTIt sounds like a lawyer. (Laughter)
罗恩·奥尔森马克·汉伯格担心,在我谈到我们的内幕交易政策并提到我们有一份限制性清单时,可能会有人把它理解成暗示路博润当时在那份限制性清单上。其实并不是。列入我们限制性清单的证券,是我们已经公开披露持有头寸的证券。所以我只想澄清这一点。路博润并不在限制性清单上。
RON OLSONMarc Hamburg was concerned that when I spoke of our insider trading policy and mentioned that we had a restricted list, that it — somebody may interpret that as suggesting that Lubrizol was on that restricted list. It was not. What goes on our restricted list are securities that we have a position in that we publicly reported. So I just simply wanted clarify that point. Lubrizol was not on the restricted list.
“下次新闻稿让查理来写”
"I'm going to have Charlie write the next press release"
沃伦·巴菲特好的。贝基?
WARREN BUFFETTOK. Becky?
贝基·奎克查理,这个问题有好几种不同提法,但这一条来自加拿大滑铁卢的彼得·克尔(Peter Kerr,音)。他问:“能不能请你们说说,过去这一年里,你们学到的一两件最重要的事是什么?”
BECKY QUICKCharlie, I've got several variations of this question, but this one comes from Peter Kerr (PH) in Waterloo, Canada. He says, “Could you please let us know a couple of the most important things you learned during the last year?”
沃伦·巴菲特让查理先说吧。(笑)
WARREN BUFFETTI'll let Charlie go first. (Laughs)
查理·芒格好吧,我不太想承认这件事,因为我这辈子一直都在回避高科技领域。但我确实读了那本讲谷歌的书——《走进谷歌》(In the Plex),我觉得这是本很有意思的书。你看,我都这把年纪了,却发现人们打造出的那些工程文化相当特别,跟我们伯克希尔大多数业务的文化截然不同。我会不会用上这些知识?我怀疑。但我确实读得津津有味。而只要我读得津津有味,我就认为这很重要,因为我觉得人活着就是为了这个:每晚睡觉时,都比早上起床时聪明一点点。
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I hate to admit this because I've ignored high-tech all my life, but I actually read that book "In the Plex" about Google, and I found it a very interesting book. And so here I am at my advanced age, and I find it interesting the way people have created these engineering cultures, which are quite peculiar and different from most of what we have at Berkshire. And will I ever make any use of this? I doubt it. But I certainly enjoyed learning it. And if I enjoy learning it, I regard it as important, because I think that's what you're here for, is to go to bed every night a little wiser than you were when you got up.
沃伦·巴菲特我其实只求能稳住就不错了。(笑)去年我学到的是,下次新闻稿要让查理来写。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTI'm just trying to hold my own, actually. (Laughs) What I learned in the last year is that I'm going to have Charlie write the next press release. (Laughter)
查理·芒格沃伦,那篇该死的新闻稿,我可是毫无异议就批准了。(笑声)伯克希尔的股东要是靠我来纠正你的错误,那他们可就真有大麻烦了。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERWarren, I approved that damn press release with no objections. (Laughter) The Berkshire shareholders are going to be in terrible trouble if they're relying on me to fix your errors. (Laughter)
被救助的机构,其 CEO 应“一文不名”
CEO should be left "dead broke" after a bailout
沃伦·巴菲特好。来看第 11 个问题。
WARREN BUFFETTOK. Let's go to number 11.
查理·芒格嗯。
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah.
沃伦·巴菲特我们在这儿都快进入坦白时间了。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTGetting too close to confession time up here. (Laughter)
现场股东下午好,沃伦和查理。我是菲尔·德鲁(Phil Drew,音),和我太太蒂娜,还有我们的好朋友格鲁米夫妇和亨里克森夫妇一起来的。我们都来自印第安纳波利斯,都是做小企业的。所以我们算不上“大到不能倒”。我们的问题很简单:两位先生是否认为,多年以后,当我们作为纳税人再次面临类似局面时,我们可能还得去救助华尔街那些“大到不能倒”的公司?如果会的话,我们做过什么来防止这种事情?
AUDIENCE MEMBERGood afternoon, Warren and Charlie. My name is Phil Drew (PH), and I'm here with my wife Tina and our good friends the Grummys (PH) and the Henriksens (PH). We're all from Indianapolis, and we're all small businesspeople. So we are not too big to fail. And our question, basically, is simply this: do either of you gentlemen think that we might be headed down the same type of path years from now when we get into a situation as taxpayers, that we might have to bail out a company on Wall Street that is too big to fail? And if so, have we done anything to avert that?
沃伦·巴菲特我认为,对于世界上有些机构,政府应该——虽然人们会不喜欢——但我认为,对于世界上有些机构,政府应当——“救助”这个词多少有点贬义,因为股东不该被救,管理层不该被救——但有些机构,在某些情况下,确实不应该被允许立即崩溃。我的意思是,我们现在仍然在遵循这个政策,比如房利美和房地美。它们并没有像许多银行和汽车公司那样完成自我重组。克莱斯勒甚至已经开始还钱了,这个让我挺意外的,但我向他们脱帽致敬,我这话是认真的。当时到底救不救汽车公司,我确实犹豫过,但我认为政府做了正确的事。我是说,他们不是——他们救的不是汽车公司本身,而是在出手救一个仍然非常脆弱的经济。而且,就像我说的,尤其是事后回头看,我认为他们毫无疑问做出了正确的决定。目前——你也知道,在欧洲,人们正在决定一些国家是否“大到不能倒”。所以我认为这个问题会一直伴随着我们。正因如此,你必须采取一些措施,去降低机构倒下的倾向,而其中一条,我认为就是必须让 CEO,在某种程度上也让董事会——但不会像我对 CEO 建议的那么严苛——我认为,任何一家机构,只要它的倒下会让社会遭受重创,以至于社会必须出面救助它来保全社会自身,那就应该有一套机制,让它的 CEO 和他配偶基本上一文不名,因为这里上升空间和下行风险的激励完全不对等。(掌声)而且我认为,这些机构的董事会成员也应该承受严厉的惩罚。不用到同样的程度,但他们当然应该,比如说,退还过去五年拿到的董事费,或者他们收到的其他报酬。因为,如果你运营一家机构,它一旦倒掉社会就要承受如此沉重的打击,以至于社会不得不出手救你,那你就应该让对的人来运营这家机构,而且你应该事先设定好激励措施,一旦真的出事,要让相关的人感到极其、极其、极其痛苦。你还应该降低整个体系的杠杆水平,我认为我们在一定程度上已经朝这个方向走了。但 10 年后或 20 年后,仍然会有“大到不能倒”的机构。眼下,房利美和房地美就是那种大到让人一时理不清头绪的机构。我们就这么搁在那——顺便说一下,这本身没什么毛病。对这些问题来说,找到正确的解决方案,比立刻拿出一个方案更重要。但我要特别指出,尤其是在欧洲,一些国家的银行机构,人们正面临着它们是否“大到不能倒”的问题。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTThere are institutions around the world that I think governments should properly — although people won't like it — but I think that there are institutions around the world that governments would properly — I think bailout has got a little bit of a pejorative term on it, in the sense that stockholders should not be saved, managers should not be saved — but certainly the institutions, in some cases, should not be allowed to collapse immediately. I mean, right now, we're continuing to follow that policy, for example, with Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. I mean, they have not reconstituted themselves, as many of the banks and the auto companies. I mean, Chrysler is even paying back, which, you know, surprises me, but my hat is off to them, and I mean that sincerely. I was really on the fence on saving the auto companies, but I think the administration did the right thing. I mean, there were — they weren't saving the auto companies, per se, they were still working at saving a very fragile economy. And, like I say, particularly in retrospect, they certainly, in my view, made the right decision. There are — right now, you know, in Europe they're deciding whether countries are too big to fail. And so I think that problem will always be with us. I think for that reason that you have to do things to reduce the propensity to fail, and among those things, I think you have to make it so that the CEO, and to some extent the board — but not to the draconian degree that I'll suggest for the CEO — I think that any institution that requires society to come and bail it out for society's sake should have a system in place that leaves their CEO, basically, and his spouse, dead broke, because I think that the upside and downside incentives are vastly different. (Applause) And I think the board of directors of those institutions should suffer severe penalties. Nothing like that, but they certainly, you know, should give back, say, the last five years of directors’ fees or whatever it may be that they received. Because they — if you run an institution that actually needs — society can suffer such a blow if you fail — that society needs to come in and save you, you ought to have somebody running that institution, and you ought to have incentive practices in place that make it very, very, very painful to the people involved for the failure if it indeed happens. And you also ought to reduce leverage in the system, and I think we've gone, to some degree, in that direction. But there will be too big to fail institutions 10 years from now or 20 years from now. Right now Freddie Mac and Fanny Mae are sort of too big to figure out. We just sit there — and incidentally, here's nothing wrong with that. It's more important to come up with the right solution than it is to come up with an immediate solution on those. But particularly, I would say, in Europe there are banking institutions in countries that people are facing the question of whether they are too big to fail. Charlie?
查理·芒格好吧,我的回答是,过去的恐慌和萧条,绝大部分都始于华尔街,或始于证券经纪行。它们往往伴随着巨大的投机狂潮,以及从这些狂潮中获利的人——推销员、做市商、发起人,诸如此类——的恶劣行径。我认为,最近这场造成了如此巨大危险的烂摊子,本应催生出类似 30 年代之后那样的后果,也就是让我们在很长很长时间里不再发生新的烂摊子;但当然,现实并没有。因此,我认为你可以有把握地预料,在你的职业生涯结束之前,还会再出现一两次新的烂摊子。而我觉得,我们国家竟然允许这种事发生,真是愚蠢至极。这里的失败,部分原因不是恶,而是蠢。而这蠢的一部分,就出在我们那些伟大的学术机构身上,它们相信了一大堆并不真实的东西。而这确实是一个极难解决的问题。
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, my answer is that the past panics and depressions, by and large, started on Wall Street or in stock brokerages. They tended to involve great waves of excessive speculation and bad behavior in the people who were profiting from those waves as salesman, or market makers, or promoters or what have you. And I think that this last mess, which created so much danger, should have caused something like happened in the aftermath of the '30s, where we prevented a new mess for a long, long time, but, of course, it hasn't done that. And so I think you can confidently expect a new mess or two before you career is over, and I think it is really stupid for our country to have allowed this. Partly the failure is not one of evil, it's one of stupidity. And part of the stupidity is in our great academic institutions who believe a whole lot of things that aren't true. And that is a really hard problem to solve.
沃伦·巴菲特你特指金融领域?
WARREN BUFFETTYou're talking about particularly in finance?
查理·芒格是的,当然,经济学也一样。
CHARLIE MUNGERYes, of course, and economics, too.
沃伦·巴菲特对。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah.
查理·芒格金融和经济学算不上硬科学。而且金融这行很会吸引那些本该去耍蛇的人——(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERThose are not hard sciences, finance and economics. And finance really attracts people who should have gone into snake charming or — (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特要是还有谁我们忘了冒犯的,递张纸条上来,我们会补上的。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTIf there's anybody we've forgotten to insult, just pass a note up, and we'll get to you. (Laughter)
查理·芒格对。
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah.
辞去董事会职务后也不会卖出《华盛顿邮报》股票
No Washington Post shares will be sold after board resignation
沃伦·巴菲特好,安德鲁?
WARREN BUFFETTOK. Andrew?
安德鲁·罗斯·索金这个问题来自一位华盛顿特区的股东,希望匿名。他写道:“沃伦,过去一年里,你和梅琳达·盖茨先后辞去了《华盛顿邮报》的董事职务。这对伯克希尔长期持有《华盛顿邮报》股票的打算意味着什么?此事与邮报旗下营利性教育业务卡普兰(Kaplan)遇到的问题有关吗?”
ANDREW ROSS SORKINThis question comes from a shareholder based in Washington, DC, who has asked to remain anonymous. This person says, “Warren, in the past year you and Melinda Gates resigned from the board of the Washington Post. What does this say about Berkshire's intention to hold the Washington Post stock over the long term, and is this related to the problems at its for-profit education business, Kaplan?”
沃伦·巴菲特没有关系。这事我其实公开表过态,可能只有《华盛顿邮报》自己登了,其他地方发没发我不确定。我当时明确表示,我们不会卖出任何一股股票,辞职与此毫无关系。我随时可以一个电话找到唐·格雷厄姆或邮报的任何其他人。他们能省下不少董事费,我也能省下大量差旅时间——毕竟到了 80 岁,我更想多在伯克希尔待几天,少在外面跑。我是说——我们不会卖出任何《华盛顿邮报》股票。通常我不会评论我们对有价证券会采取什么行动,但这件事我可以把话说得很明确。我对《华盛顿邮报》本身及其管理层的热情,百分之百和过去一样。如果邮报管理层想听取什么建议,我现在可比以前便宜多了。我不觉得梅琳达是因为年龄辞职的,这你得去问她。我确实是到了 80 岁才下了这个决心,毕竟我从 1974 年就进董事会了,中间在大都会/美国广播公司任职时中断过一段,现在这样真是轻松多了。查理,关于担任董事这件事,你整体上有什么看法?查理目前是好市多(Costco)的董事。
WARREN BUFFETTNo, I made this statement, actually, publicly, and they may have only run it in the Post, I'm not sure about elsewhere. But I made the statement that we would not be selling any stock, and it had nothing to do with that, that I'm a phone call away from Don Graham or anybody else at the Post, and they can just save a lot of directors fees and I can save a lot of travel if at age 80 I decide that I'd rather spend a few more days at Berkshire and less on the road. I am — we will not be selling any Post shares. Normally I won't comment about what we'll do on marketable securities, but I'll be unequivocal about that. And my enthusiasm for the Post itself and the management is 100 percent what it's always been, and I — I'm just available a lot cheaper than before if the Post management wants any advice. I don't think Melinda did it on the basis of age. You'll have to ask her. I really decided at 80 that I'd been there since 1974, with an interruption when I was at Cap Cities/ABC, and it's just a lot easier this way. Charlie, do you have any thoughts on serving on boards generally? Charlie is on the Costco board.
查理·芒格嗯,那是因为我由衷欣赏好事多。跟那帮人打交道,是我人生的一大乐事。但这也是我唯一一个——没有大额持股的董事会。我认为,总的说来,同时在很多家不同的董事会任职,纯属浪费时间。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, that's because I really admire Costco. And that's one of the pleasures of my life, is interfacing with those people. But that's the only one where we don't — where I don't have a big ownership interest. I think, generally speaking, serving on a whole lot of different boards is for the birds. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特对,我同意。(笑)
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. I agree. (Laughs)
无法预测伯克希尔能否跑赢澳元
Can't predict if Berkshire will outperform the Australian dollar
沃伦·巴菲特好,12 区。
WARREN BUFFETTOK. Area 12.
现场股东下午好,巴菲特先生、芒格先生。我是马克·拉比诺夫,来自澳大利亚墨尔本。作为来自亚洲地区的投资者,我担心美元走弱会侵蚀我所持伯克希尔股票的价值。不过,伯克希尔生产力极高,且具备切实的定价权。那么,我能否相信,长期来看,美元的任何贬值都会被我所持伯克希尔股票价值的上涨所抵消?我指的是在基础业务内在增长之外,额外带来的那一部分抵消。
AUDIENCE MEMBERGood afternoon, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. I'm Marc Rabinov from Melbourne, Australia. As an investor from the Asian region, I am concerned that a weaker dollar will erode the value of my Berkshire stock. However, Berkshire is highly productive with real pricing power, so can I be confident that over the long term any fall in the dollar will be offset by a rise in the value of my Berkshire stock? And by that I mean in addition to any intrinsic growth in the underlying business.
查理·芒格答案是:不能。(巴菲特笑)
CHARLIE MUNGERThe answer is no. (Buffett laughs)
沃伦·巴菲特如果澳元能跌下去,事情会简单得多。澳元是我们去年持有的两种货币之一,贡献了 1 亿美元的利润。但是,我无法告诉你美国会采取什么政策,澳大利亚会采取什么政策,以及这些政策将如何影响这两种货币的相对价值——比如从现在算起 10 年后。我认为波动可能会相当剧烈,而且我认为实际上可能向任何方向剧烈波动。这就是为什么我不知道该怎么做。但你能从查理和我这里得到的关于伯克希尔的唯一承诺是,我们每天都在努力增加伯克希尔的盈利能力和内在价值,就像我在年报中说过的。而我们在多大程度上增加了它,股东们就会——或者我们在多大程度上减少了它——股东们将和我们两人以完全相同的比例承担。我们的利益是 100% 一致的。我们将通过我们的股票赚钱或亏钱,而在某种程度上,运气将决定——它将决定——我们做得多好。我们知道未来不可能做得像过去那么好。没有方法可以——我们不知道有什么方法可以让现在运作的这些资金,以任何接近我们当年运作较小资金时所能达到的复利速度继续增长。但你会得到我们最大的努力。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTIt would be a lot easier if you just had the Australian dollar go down. The Australian dollar was one of two currencies that we did own last year that contributed to the $100 million profit. But, no, I cannot tell you what policies will be followed in the United States and what policies will be followed in Australia that will — what they will be and how they will affect the relative value of those two currencies, say, 10 years from now. I think the movement could be quite dramatic, and I think it actually could be dramatic in either direction. That's why I don't know what to do. But the only promise you'll get from Charlie and me about Berkshire is that we do every day, as I said in the annual report, try to think about increasing the earning power and the intrinsic value of Berkshire. And to the degree we increase it, the shareholders will — or to the degree we decrease it — the shareholders will share in exactly the same proportion as Charlie and I do. We will — our interests are 100 percent aligned. We will make or lose money through our stock and luck, to some extent, will depend — will determine — how well we do. We know we can't do remotely as well in the future as we have in the past. There is no way to compound — there's no way we know to compound the kind of sums we're working with now at rates that are anywhere close to what we were able to do when working with much smaller sums. But you'll get our best efforts. Charlie?
查理·芒格我没什么可补充的。澳大利亚拥有那些绝佳的露天矿,又正值亚洲对金属需求全面勃兴之际,我实在没法告诉你,伯克希尔的股票和澳大利亚的矿山相比,将来会表现如何。但我想,相对美国本土的公司,我们会做得相当不错。
CHARLIE MUNGERI can't add to that. Australia has these fabulous open pit mines, and at a time when Asia is just totally booming with its demand for metals, I can't tell you how Berkshire stock is going to perform vis-a-vis mines in Australia. I think we'll do pretty well compared to companies here in the United States.
沃伦·巴菲特是啊,我也这么认为。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, I think so, too.
我们没有忽视股票投资组合
We're not neglecting the stock portfolio
沃伦·巴菲特卡罗尔?
WARREN BUFFETTCarol?
卡罗尔·卢米斯这位股东希望只用其姓名首字母 A.J. 称呼。过去几十年,伯克希尔股票投资组合的重要性已经下降。如今,在我看来,伯克希尔对股票的配置意愿已退居次要,重心落在了大型收购上。你同意这个看法吗?你认为未来五年或十年,股票投资组合会走向何方?
CAROL LOOMISThis shareholder wishes to be known only by his initials, AJ. The importance of Berkshire's equity portfolio has diminished other the past few decades. Today I view Berkshire's appetite for equity as an afterthought and instead see its focus as being on large acquisitions. Would you agree with this, and where do you see the equity portfolio going over the next five or 10 years?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我更喜欢大型收购,但从投资组合的角度来看,这绝不是事后才考虑的事情。我的意思是,我们——查理和我花——我们可能花更多时间思考投资组合,因为我们只是偶尔才有机会思考那些规模可观并且我们能拿下的收购机会。所以我们对伯克希尔运营的这两个方面都同样感兴趣。但我们真正希望走运的地方,是向已有的业务中增添重要的公司,并让我们已经拥有的公司进行各种补强收购。今年我们已经做了好几次这样的收购,你们都没在新闻里看到。我们的许多公司都有潜力在未来五年或十年赚到比现在多得多的钱。因此,这些业务的发展——实际上取决于经理们——查理和我在这方面没有任何贡献——但我们会在投资组合上花和以往一样多的时间。而且,你知道,这很重要。我的意思是,如果你谈到大约 1500 多亿美元的现金和有价证券,那么这一特定板块的业绩将在很大程度上决定伯克希尔长期的表现。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTWell, I prefer large acquisitions, but it's not an afterthought at all in terms of the portfolio. I mean, we — Charlie and I spend — well, we probably spend more time thinking about the portfolio because it's only occasionally that we get a chance to think about acquisitions that are sizable and that are available to us. So we are equally interested in both aspects of Berkshire's operations. But where we hope we really get lucky is in adding significant companies to what we have already, and having our — the companies that we already own — make various bolt-on acquisitions. We've had several of those already this year that you don't read about. A lot of our companies have the potential to do — to earn — considerably more money five or 10 years from now than they're earning now. So both the development of those businesses, which really resides with the managers — Charlie and I don't contribute anything on that — but we will — we spend as much time thinking about the portfolio as we ever did. And, you know, it's important. I mean, if you talk about $150-some billion in cash and marketable securities, the performance of that particular segment is going to have a lot to do with how well Berkshire does over time. Charlie?
查理·芒格是的,因为我们的保险子公司,我们手上总会持有相当数量的有价证券——但是,随着我们受规模所限,不得不去买越来越大的股票,我们的表现自然会比过去可考虑的投资范围大得多的时候要差不少。
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, we'll always have a fair amount of marketable securities because of our insurance subsidiaries and — but as we get forced by our size into the bigger and bigger stocks, of course we're going to do less well than we did when we had a bigger universe of practicable things to consider.
沃伦·巴菲特会差很多。我的意思是,这就是事物的本质。我们现在买的证券,多数情况下都得投进去几十亿美元,这个领域别的分析师也不会放过。所以,想拥有巨大优势是不可能的。我们只希望能有一点微小优势。
WARREN BUFFETTA lot less well. I mean, it really is the nature of things. We are buying securities where we have to put billions of dollars in them in most cases, and that is not a field that is unlooked at by other analysts. So it's impossible to have a big edge. We hope we have a small edge.
查理·芒格另一方面,当年我们在有价证券上做得风生水起时,可没人打电话来说:“我有个好生意,全世界只愿意交给你。”而现在这种事,怎么说,一年总归有那么几次吧?
CHARLIE MUNGEROn the other hand, when we were doing so well in marketable securities, nobody called us and said, I have a wonderful business, and you're the only place in the world where I would want to transfer it. And now that happens, what, a couple times a year at least?
沃伦·巴菲特对。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah.
查理·芒格而且说实话,在某些方面,我更喜欢现在这个阶段,胜过早期阶段。能结交一些做建设性事情的永久伙伴,比单纯智胜别人、倒腾那些小纸片,要有趣得多。
CHARLIE MUNGERAnd I really prefer, in some ways, this part of the game to the earlier game. It's more fun to create permanent partners doing constructive things than just outsmart other people and shuffling little pieces of paper.
沃伦·巴菲特其实,两件事都挺有趣的。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTIt's fun to do both, actually. (Laughter)
查理·芒格是啊。嗯,我看你也没少干。(巴菲特笑)
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah. Well, I don't see you holding back. (Buffett laughs)
“我们拥有一家极为出色的保险业务”
"We have an unbelievable insurance operation"
沃伦·巴菲特好了。我们去另一边会场。13 号。
WARREN BUFFETTOK. Let's go to the other room. 13.
现场股东你好,我是惠特尼·蒂尔森,来自纽约的股东。感谢你在最新的致股东年报中,提供了如此完整清晰的伯克希尔估值信息。你提到保险业务的经营利润并未列入你的盈利表,我也知道你今天早上说过,2011 年最多也就是盈亏平衡。但考虑到年报披露,伯克希尔过去八年里赚取了 170 亿美元承保利润,且无一年亏损,你是不是过于保守了?你难道不认为你的保险业务的内在价值,远不止它们的浮存金吗?尤其是 GEICO,基于你今天早上谈到的那些理由。
AUDIENCE MEMBERHi, I'm Whitney Tilson, a shareholder from New York. Thank you for including in your latest annual letter such complete and clear valuation information regarding Berkshire. You stated that the operating earnings of the insurance businesses are excluded from your earnings table, and I know you said this morning that 2011 is going to be a break-even year at best. But in light of the disclosure in the annual report that Berkshire earned $17 billion in profit over the last eight years without a single money-losing year, are you being overly conservative? Don't you think the intrinsic value of your insurance businesses is more than just their float, especially GEICO, for the reasons you discussed this morning?
沃伦·巴菲特是的,惠特尼,我同意你的说法,不过——你也知道,未来二十年或类似周期的正常承保利润可能是多少,这非常难以估计。所以,我同意你的观点。我不知道该不该叫它“过于保守”。我会说,假设承保盈亏平衡是一种保守的做法。但正如你所说——我是说,如果我们再遭遇一场卡特里娜飓风之类的事件——先不提欧洲冬季风暴那些了——我是说,今年我们可能承保亏损很大,而且我们本来就预计,大概每五年、每十年,或者不管多长时间,都会出现一次大额承保亏损。但你说得没错,在我在年报里做的计算之外,再加入一个合理水平的正常化承保利润,并非不合适。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, I'd agree with that, Whitney, but I — it's very hard to estimate, you know, what the normal underwriting profit might be — might be over the next 20 years or something of the sort. And so I agree with you. I don't know whether I'd call it overly conservative. I would say it's conservative to assume break-even underwriting. But as you — I mean, if we had another Katrina or something of the sort — and forget about, you know, winter storms in Europe and all that — I mean, we could lose significant money in underwriting this year, and we expect to lose significant money in underwriting, you know, maybe every fifth year, every tenth year, whatever it might be. But I think you're right in saying it would not be inappropriate to include some normalized underwriting profit in addition to the calculation that I made in the annual report.
查理·芒格惠特尼,让我帮你换个问题,问问沃伦。你知道世界上还有哪家大型意外险公司,让你愿意用它来换我们自己的吗?
CHARLIE MUNGERWhitney, let me help you by asking another question of Warren. Is there any other large casualty insurance operation in the world that you know of that you would trade for ours?
沃伦·巴菲特根本没得比——不,不。没有能接近的。我的意思是,不管我们是怎么撞大运得来的,我们——我们拥有一个不可思议的保险业务。而且,GEICO,你知道,非常出色。你再想想——自 1936 年以来,这个理念就一直摆在那里,可是,尽管其他所有公司实力雄厚,拥有代理网络等等,GEICO 现在已发展成美国第三大,并且每天都在缩小与前两名的差距,而且做得相当赚钱。GEICO 的综合成本率——我记得 GEICO 第一季度的承保利润接近 8 个百分点。我得补充一句,这很可能是全年最好的季度,但这是一门了不起的生意。阿吉特·贾恩在再保险领域从零开始打造了一块保险业务,在很多方面,他都是独自运作的。在任何特定时期,他可能看不到很多交易,但某些时候,当有人需要巨额保险,要求快速答复,甚至有时想要慢慢来——我们都会给他们快速的——那除了我们,根本没别人可找。这有点像查理提到过的收购机会。他——他做到了。当他接手时,这块业务根本不存在。泰德·蒙特罗斯在通用再保险经营得极为出色。当时业务需要相当大的整顿,但泰德在那里建立了一个极其严谨的体系。然后我们还有一批较小的公司,其中几家拥有一些相当独特的经济特许权。所以真的——你知道,这些跟我毫无关系,因此我可以吹捧这些人,但他们确实在打造一家我认为举世无双的保险公司这件事上,干得太漂亮了。
WARREN BUFFETTNot remotely — no, no. Nothing close. I mean, we — however we lucked into it, we've got — we have an unbelievable insurance operation. And, I mean, GEICO, you know, is fabulous. And, you know, if you think about — since 1936, the idea has been out there, but, you know, with all the strength that all the other companies had, and the agency plants and everything else, GEICO has now moved to where it's the third largest in the United States and gaining ground every day on the two ahead of them, and doing it very profitably. GEICO's combined ratio — GEICO had an underwriting profit of close to eight points, as I remember it, in the first quarter. Now that's going to be, probably, the best quarter of the year, I should add, but it's a marvelous business. Ajit [Jain] has built an insurance business from scratch in the reinsurance business, that, in many respects, you know, he operates all alone. He may not see a lot of transactions in any given period of time, but there are certain things, where if somebody wants huge amounts of insurance and a quick answer, or even a slow answer sometimes — we'll give them a quick one — there's really nobody else to call. It's a little like Charlie mentioned on acquisition opportunities. So he's — and he's done it. I mean, it didn't exist when he got there. Tad Montrose has got a magnificent operation at Gen Re. It had to get shaken out to quite a degree, but Tad has got a very, very disciplined business there. And then we have a group of smaller companies that some of them have some very unusual franchises. So there really — you know, I didn't have anything to do with it, so I can brag about these people, but they have really done a job in building an insurance company that I don't think there's anything like it.
查理·芒格你们当中有些老股东,当初把钱投给了一个奥马哈小伙子,结果现在拥有了一部分世界上最好的意外险公司。
CHARLIE MUNGERSome of you people that have been around a long time, you invested with an Omaha boy, and you ended up owning part of the best casualty insurance business in the world.
沃伦·巴菲特如果你去第 30 街和哈尼街,会看到一栋楼,国民赔偿公司。我们花了 700 万美元买下国民赔偿,花了 140 万美元买下它的姊妹公司国民火险与海事保险,那栋楼就是我们 1967 年用的那栋,今天我们还在里面办公。唯一的区别是,如今它拥有的净资产比世界上任何保险公司都多。
WARREN BUFFETTIf you go to 30th and Harney, you'll see a building there, National Indemnities. We paid 7 million for National Indemnity, a million-four for its sister company National Fire & Marine, and that's the same building that we operated out of in 1967, we're operating out of today. The only difference is that today it's got more net worth than any insurance company in the world.
查理·芒格是啊,所以我们——意外险本身作为一门生意,并不算太好。这是个艰难的行业,里面有各种诱惑让你干蠢事。就跟银行业一样。(笑声)不过——但如果你身处其中,我觉得我们拥有最好的那一个。
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, so we — it's not that great a business as a business, casualty insurance. It's a tough game. There are temptations to be stupid in it. It's like banking. (Laughter) And — but if you're in it, I think we've got the best one.
为什么喜诗糖果在通货膨胀时期表现良好
Why See's Candies does well in inflationary times
沃伦·巴菲特说完这些“谦虚”的话,我们转到贝基那边。(笑)
WARREN BUFFETTWith those modest statements, we'll move onto Becky. (Laughs)
贝基·奎克这个问题来自南卡罗来纳州查尔斯顿的马克·乔丹。他写道:“在高速通货膨胀时期,伯克希尔·哈撒韦旗下哪些业务会表现最好,哪些会表现最差,为什么?”
BECKY QUICKThis question comes from Mark Jordan (PH) in Charleston, South Carolina. He writes, “In a period of high inflation, which particular businesses owned by Berkshire Hathaway will perform the best, and which will perform the worst and why?”
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,表现最好的业务,是那些几乎不需要多少资本投入就能实现通胀性增长,而且市场地位强势到可以随通胀提价的企业。比如,我们有一家糖果生意。自打我们买下这家糖果生意以来,美元的价值大概至少跌了 85%,我估计是 80% 到 85%,而这家糖果生意的糖果销量比我们买下时增长了 75%,但收入却翻了十倍,而且不需要增加多少资本。所以,这类业务——任何拥有足够定价自由来抵消通胀,又不需要相应增加大规模资本投入的业务——都会表现不错。像我们的公用事业这类业务,实际上只能获得类似债券的回报,但需要大量资本投入——你知道,如果你要建一座发电厂,每千瓦装机容量的成本翻倍,而你只能拿到固定回报,同时债券收益率为了对抗高通胀可能大幅攀升,那么它在通胀期就不会表现太好,正是因为它具有债券类投资的某些特征,而债券通常在通胀中表现不佳。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTWell, the businesses that will perform the best are the ones that require little capital investment to facilitate inflationary growth and that have strong positions that allow them to increase prices with inflation. And, you know, we have a candy business, for example, and the value of the dollar since we bought that candy business has probably fallen at least 85 percent, I would say — 80 to 85 percent — and that candy business sells 75 percent more pounds of candy than it did when we bought it, but it has ten times the revenues and it doesn't take a lot more capital. So that kind of a business — any business that can — that has enough freedom to price to offset inflation and doesn't commensurate invest — or huge investment — to support it, will do well. Businesses like our utilities which get, in effect, a bond-like return but require — you know, if you're going to build a generating plant and it costs twice as much per kilowatt hour of capacity, and all you're going to get is a fixed return and yields on bonds go up, perhaps dramatically, to get high inflation, is not going to do that well in an inflationary period, just because it has certain aspects of a bond-like investment, and bonds generally are not going to do well in inflation. Charlie?
查理·芒格嗯,不过呢,就像我们的保险业务一样,我们这种资本密集型的铁路业务无疑是世界上最好的铁路公司之一,我们的公用事业业务也无疑是世界上最好的公用事业公司之一。所以说,在核心业务上做到世界级水平,也不全是坏事。
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, but like our insurance operations, our capital intensive railroad business is certainly one of the best railroads in the world. And our utility operations are certainly one of the best utility operations in the world. And so it isn't all bad to be up there, world class, in your main businesses.
沃伦·巴菲特我们的铁路——政府一直在讨论在加州修建高铁系统。我想他们说的是 800 英里轨道,估算成本约 430 亿美元,而施工成本之类的数字,往往是大幅上涨,极少甚至从不下调。当然,我们为自己的铁路系统支付了 430 亿美元(包括承担的债务),这套系统拥有 22000 英里主线轨道、6000 多台机车和 13000 座桥梁,如果你想买桥的话。所以,在通胀中,这项资产的重置价值已经非常巨大,而且还会大幅增长,而这个世界——我们国家永远需要铁路运输。所以,这是一项极好的资产,我就说到这儿吧。
WARREN BUFFETTOur railroad — the government has talked about building a high-speed rail system in California. I think they're talking about 800 miles of track, and their estimated cost was about 43 billion, and estimated costs on construction and things like that go up dramatically much more often than they get reduced even by a minor amount. And, of course, we paid 43 billion, counting debt assumed, for our rail system, which has 22,000 miles of main track and 6,000-plus locomotives, and 13,000 bridges, if you ever want to buy a bridge. So that — the replacement value of that asset during inflation already is huge and it would grow dramatically, and the world — our country will always need rail transportation. So it — it is a terrific asset to own, I'll just leave it at that.
“祝你活到 A 股拆股那天”
"May you live until the A stock splits"
沃伦·巴菲特好。又是 1 区。
WARREN BUFFETTOK. Area 1 again.
现场股东我是马丁·格林伯格,来自加州大学洛杉矶分校安德森管理学院,我在那里研究颠覆性技术,不是金融。
AUDIENCE MEMBERI'm Martin Greenberger, UCLA Anderson School, where I work in disruptive technologies, not finance.
沃伦·巴菲特原谅你了。请说。(笑)
WARREN BUFFETTYou're forgiven. Go ahead. (Laughs)
现场股东我的朋友沃尔特想知道,伯克希尔是否考虑过拆分它的 A 类股,就像之前拆分 B 类股那样?如果考虑过,在您看来,利弊是什么?短期和长期影响又会怎样?
AUDIENCE MEMBERMy friend Walt would like to know if Berkshire has been considering splitting its Type A shares, like it did its Type B shares, and if so, what are the pros and cons, in your opinion? And what would be the short-term and longer-term effects?
沃伦·巴菲特是的。其实,我们已经变相拆股了,通过推出 B 类股,相当于 1500 比 1 的拆分。而且,我们目前的情况是公司永远不会被出售,但任何涉及 A 类股的交易,B 类股都将得到完全同等的对待。所以持有 B 类股实质上并无劣势,只是投票权比 A 类股略少一些。但在其他所有方面,它是完全相同的证券,因此我们已经提供了一种已拆细的股票。所以我会告诉沃尔特,他真的不该对 A 类股拆股抱太大指望。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Well, in effect, we've already split it, you know, 1500-for-one by having the B available. And, you know, we have a situation where the company will never be sold, but if any transaction involves the A stock, the B shares are going to get treated exactly the same. So there's really no disadvantage to owning the B stock, except it has somewhat less voting power than the A stock. But in every other way it's the same instrument, and so we already have a split stock available. So I would tell Walt that he really should not count heavily on the A stock getting split. Charlie?
查理·芒格嗯,沃伦以前常这样逗他的老朋友,对他们说:祝你活到 A 类股拆股那一天。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, Warren used to cheer up his old friends by telling them, may you live until the A stock splits. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特我自己倒真希望能做成这笔交易。(笑)
WARREN BUFFETTAnd I would love to make that deal myself. (Laughs)
巴菲特最棒的一笔交易:聘用阿吉特·贾恩
Buffett's best deal: hiring Ajit Jain
沃伦·巴菲特安德鲁?
WARREN BUFFETTAndrew?
安德鲁·罗斯·索金这个问题来自马萨诸塞州北安多弗的马修·帕尔默。他写道:“巴菲特先生,您曾称赞[伯克希尔·哈撒韦再保险业务负责人]阿吉特[·贾恩]是可能的继任者。既然他可能成为我们的下一任 CEO,您能否举一个他承保的、令您印象深刻的保单实例?并谈谈他的思维方式,因为我们很少有机会听到他本人的看法?”
ANDREW ROSS SORKINThis question comes from Matthew Palmer of North Andover, Massachusetts. And he writes, “Mr. Buffett, you have praised [Berkshire Hathaway reinsurance chief] Ajit [Jain] as a possible successor. Since he may be in line as our next CEO, can you give us a concrete example of a policy that he's written that's impressed you, and can you talk a little about the way he thinks since we rarely get an opportunity to hear from him?”
沃伦·巴菲特是的,阿吉特并不是一个爱出风头的人。阿吉特——(笑)——他——我想不出他做过的哪一个决定是我认为自己能做得更好的。而且我现在——我不再接触他的所有交易了。有很多交易规模不大,或是不太引人关注,但他会告诉我所有出现的趣事以及所有出现的大事。我想说的是:在你听完他提出的任何提案之后,你跟着他的判断投票,会比跟着我的判断投票效果更好。他是一位像查理一样理性的思考者,也和我见过的任何人一样理性。他热爱他的工作。他很有创意,极为有创意。在再保险领域,每当我们进入一个业务,有人跟风模仿我们时,阿吉特就会想出些别的点子。最近我们在人寿再保险领域活跃得多,但谁知道明天会发生什么呢。我的意思是,如果今年第三季度碰巧发生一场巨大的巨灾或类似事件,那么在承保能力紧张时,可能会开启各类承保机会。但谁知道会发生什么呢。我只知道,阿吉特的大脑日复一日像机器一样运转。而且他确实热爱他所做的事情,这对于做好任何一项事业都至关重要。我真的——我不知道他最棒的交易是哪一笔。但我知道我最棒的一笔交易是什么,那就是雇用了他。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, Ajit is not exactly a publicity hound. Ajit — (laughs) — he — I can't think of any decision he's ever made that I think I could have made better. And I've — I'm not privy to all of his transactions anymore. There just — there are lots of them that are not of huge size or of great interest, but he tells me about all the interesting things that come along and all the very big things that come along. And I would say this: you'd be better off voting with him than with me after listening to any proposition he brings up. He is as rational a thinker as Charlie is, as anybody I've met. He loves what he does. He's creative. He's very creative. We have moved into one area after another in reinsurance when people came in copying us in one area of business that we would be operating in. Ajit comes up with something else. Lately we've been much more active in life reinsurance, but who knows tomorrow brings. I mean, if there happens to be a huge cat in the third quarter of this year or something of the sort, that might open up all kinds of opportunities in writing covers when — if capacity got strained. But who knows what will happen. All I know is that Ajit's mind works like a machine, you know, day after day. And he does love what he does, which is an important part of doing well at any activity. And I really — I don't know what his best deal was. I know what my best deal was, which was hiring him. Charlie?
查理·芒格是啊。创办了全球模范医学院的威廉·奥斯勒爵士常说,在一个领域取得成功的秘诀在于对它产生浓厚的兴趣。阿吉特对他所做的事情确实极为投入。你们很多人不知道,每年感恩节阿吉特都会飞往伦敦,因为那里不过感恩节。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah. Sir William Osler, who created a model medical school for the world, used to say that the secret of success in a field is getting very interested in it. Well, Ajit is real interested in what he does. Many of you don't know this, but every Thanksgiving, Ajit flies to London because they don't have a Thanksgiving holiday. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特不过,我们允许他圣诞节休假。(笑声)阿吉特,我们只有——他——每当我说他有多宝贵,谈论他时我都没有半分夸张。他——在非同寻常的程度上,他总把伯克希尔的利益放在第一位。在不同时期,当保险公司因各种原因变得炙手可热时,比如几年前百慕大公司的热潮,你知道,阿吉特本可以让自己获得难以想象的变现收益。现在他仍然可以。我的意思是,人们会把任何一家资金充裕的新公司相当大比例的股份白白送给他,这样他立马就能创造——我猜——数亿美元的财富,自己一根手指头都不用动,只要有人拿出,你知道,几十亿美元,然后对他说,你占 20% 的股份,或者别的什么条件。我的意思是,听着,他是个聪明人。他知道这一点,但他脑子里压根没动过这种念头。我是说,在薪酬方面——每年年底他都会为我的所作所为表达感谢,而我总觉得,当我办完所有事时,我给他的数字漏掉了一个零,你知道。(笑)他简直是个非凡的人。而且我认为,我们极其幸运的是,他在伯克希尔做他的工作时乐在其中。他手下有一个大约 30 人的核心团队一起工作。还有更多的人负责理赔和处理已剥离业务的善后工作,但在我看来,你不仅在保险界找不到能与之媲美的团队,在整个商业界的几乎任何领域也都找不到。(掌声)
WARREN BUFFETTWe give him Christmas off, though. (Laughter) Ajit, we just — he — I say how invaluable he is, and I'm not exaggerating when we talk about him. He is — to an extraordinary degree, he thinks of Berkshire first. Ajit, at various periods when insurance companies became popular for one reason or another, there was, you know, there was the big thing about Bermuda companies some few years ago, Ajit could have monetized himself to an incredible degree. Still could do it. I mean, people would hand him a significant percentage of any company being formed with lots of money, so that immediately he could create, I would guess, in the hundreds of millions of wealth without lifting a finger, just by somebody putting up, you know, a couple billion dollars and saying you've got 20 percent of it or whatever it may be. I mean, listen, he's smart. He knows that, and it doesn't cross his mind to do anything like that. I mean, he — we have, in comp — he always thanks me for what I do at the end of the year, and I feel I've left off a zero, you know, when I get all through. (Laughs) He's just a remarkable human being. And we are very, very lucky that, I think, he has a lot of fun in what he does at Berkshire. He's got a cadre of about 30 people that work with him. There's many more that are settling claims and doing that sort of thing on runoff business, but it's — you won't find anything like it, in my view, not only in the insurance world, but really in almost any part of the business world. (Applause)
沃伦·巴菲特我们继续——
WARREN BUFFETTLet's go —
查理·芒格你没回答刚才那个问题。也许你是故意避开的。
CHARLIE MUNGERYou didn't answer the question. Maybe you avoided it on purpose.
沃伦·巴菲特噢。
WARREN BUFFETTOh.
查理·芒格他问的是,我们最差的业务有哪些?
CHARLIE MUNGERHe said, what are our worst businesses?
沃伦·巴菲特我们最差的业务有哪些?嗯,总体而言——这是一般性的说法——我——嗯,在进入一些小业务时犯过一些错误,这些业务确实从未有变大的潜力。但我认为整体上,大概我会说是零售业务——你知道,德克斯特鞋业是我们最差的一笔业务,但我——内布拉斯加家具城显然是一项极其出色的经营。然而,尽管我们涉足众多零售——相当多的——零售业务已有一段时间,我们却并未在那里建立起强大的盈利能力。查理,你同意这一点吗?
WARREN BUFFETTWhat are our worst businesses? Well, generally speaking — and this is general — I have — well, made certain mistakes in going into smaller businesses that really never had the potential of becoming big. But I would say overall, probably, I would call retailing — you know, Dexter was our worst business, but I've — the Furniture Mart, obviously, is a terrific operation. But we have not made — despite being in numerous retailing — quite a few — retailing business for quite a while, we have not created major earning power there. Wouldn't you agree on that, Charlie?
查理·芒格同意,不过幸运的是,这只是我们整体业务中的一小部分。
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, but luckily it's a small part of the operation.
沃伦·巴菲特嗯。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah.
查理·芒格但你说得对。这一直是我们最难啃的领域。你知道,如果我们再聪明一点,也许能把这个看得更明白一些。(笑)
CHARLIE MUNGERBut you're right. That's been the hardest game for us. And, you know, if we were a little smarter we could have figured that out better. (Laughs)
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,如果我们再聪明一点,很多事都能做得不一样。(笑)当然,喜诗糖果在某种程度上也算零售业。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, if we were a little smarter we could have done a lot of things. (Laughs) Of course, See's is a retailing business, to some degree.
查理·芒格是的。
CHARLIE MUNGERYes.
沃伦·巴菲特我们在那上面取得了巨大的成功,所以也许我们开始觉得自己是天才了。我们就像下雨天池塘里的鸭子,以为是自己有本事才往上涨,其实只是因为下雨了。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTAnd we had enormous success there, so maybe we started thinking we were geniuses. We are like the duck on the pond when it was raining, and we thought we were rising in the world because of merit and it was just because it was raining. (Laughter)
评估企业时,“忘掉商誉”
"Forget about goodwill" when evaluating a business
沃伦·巴菲特好。我们请 2 号提问。
WARREN BUFFETTOK. We'll go to number 2.
现场股东乔·特林哈斯(音),来自马萨诸塞州波士顿。应该怎样正确看待商誉和资本回报率?伯克希尔的制造、服务和零售业务的有形资本税前回报率超过 20%,这要么说明经理人很出色,要么说明企业非常优秀。但分配资本的回报率只有个位数,看起来相当平淡。会计师对无形资产的处理与此类似,但它们在经济学上是不一样的。(听不清)对于像喜诗糖果或可口可乐这样不可摧毁的品牌,我能理解为什么商誉不应该摊销,因为它每年都在增值,而您关于 GEICO 保单持有人的评论也提供了一个看待这个问题的思路。但所有烟草公司在发达国家每年都有数十亿美元的商誉,体现在卷烟的单位销量上,也许它们应该摊销。至于时代华纳—美国在线,商誉绝对需要摊销。
AUDIENCE MEMBERJoe Tellinghas (PH), Boston, Massachusetts. What's the proper way to think about goodwill and return on capital? Berkshire's manufacturing, service, and retail businesses earn pretax returns on tangible capital over 20 percent, which suggests either skilled managers or fantastic businesses. But the return on allocated equity is in the single digits, which looks drab. Accountants treat intangibles similarly because they have different economics. (Inaudible) For an indestructible brand like See's or Coca-Cola, I can see why the intangibles should not be amortized because it's worth more every year, and your comments on GEICO policyholders were one way to think about that. But all the tobacco companies have billions of dollars of goodwill in unit sales of cigarettes to claim every year in developed countries, so perhaps they should be amortized. And for Time Warner- AOL, goodwill definitely needed to be amortized.
沃伦·巴菲特是的,商誉——你提到美国在线-时代华纳之类的例子,实际上应该直接减记。那只是收购价格上犯的一个错误。评估一家企业的基本吸引力时,不应该看商誉。你应该看它投入的有形资产回报率,即便这样,还有一些次要的——你可能还想做一些其他调整。但本质上,在评估我们持有的企业时,无论是看管理层在做什么,还是看这家企业背后的经济特征,都忘掉商誉。而在评估我们资本配置做得怎么样时,你必须把商誉算进去,因为我们为它付了钱。所以,如果我们收购——你知道,可口可乐要追溯到 1886 年,约翰·彭伯顿在亚特兰大的雅各布斯药房,他卖出第一杯可口可乐的时候,账上基本没记什么商誉。如果你现在要买下整家公司,你得标一个数字,比如 1000 亿美元左右。你不应该摊销那笔商誉,而且在判断这家企业本身的经济特征时,也不应该去看它。但在判断收购方——我们姑且称之为伯克希尔——的经济状况时,你就得把商誉考虑进去,因为我们在做资本配置,并且为它付出了高昂的代价。我不认为摊销商誉有任何意义。我觉得,当你发现当初买错了,企业赚的钱跟投入的有形资产加上商誉不匹配的时候,减记商誉才有意义。但要看一家企业是好企业、一般企业还是差企业,要看净有形资产回报率。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, goodwill — you mention AOL-Time Warner or something of the sort, it should be written off, actually. It was just a mistake in purchase price. Goodwill should not be used in evaluating the fundamental attractiveness of a business. There you should look at return on tangible assets, and even then there's some minor — some other adjustments you may want to make. But basically, in evaluating the businesses we own, in terms of what the management are doing and what the underlying economics of the business are, forget about goodwill. In terms of evaluating the job we're doing in allocating capital, you have to include goodwill, because we paid for it. So if we buy — you know, Coca-Cola goes back to 1886 and John Pemberton at Jacobs Pharmacy in Atlanta, and there was not a whole lot of goodwill put on the books when he sold that first Coca-Cola. If you were to buy the company now, the whole company, you'd be putting a figure, you know, of 100 billion or something like that on it. You shouldn't amortize that, and you shouldn't, in judging the economics of the business, look at that. But in terms of judging the economics of the business that purchased it — we'll call it Berkshire — then you have to allow for the goodwill, because we are allocating capital and paying a lot for it. I don't think the amortization of goodwill makes any sense. I think write-offs of it, when you find out you've made the wrong purchase and the business doesn't earn commensurate with the tangible assets employed plus the goodwill, I think write-offs of it make sense. But when looking at businesses as to whether they're good businesses, mediocre businesses, poor businesses, look at the return on net tangible assets. Charlie?
查理·芒格嗯,我认为说得对。但正如这位先生所说,我们收购一家企业,收购整家公司的时候,从来不会有特别大的便宜可占,当然,我们的税前收益可能压到收购价的 10% 左右。这并没有你以为的那么糟糕——你要知道,有相当一部分资金来自保险浮存金,成本为零。换句话说,如果你有 600 亿浮存金,而上帝每年给你 60 亿收益,这并不差。
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I think that's right. But as the gentleman says, when we buy a business, a whole business, we never get a huge bargain and, of course, we may get down toward 10 percent pretax earnings on what we pay. That isn't so awful as you think when you — a lot of the money comes from insurance float that costs you nothing. In other words, if you have 60 billion of float and God gives you 6 billion a year earnings, it's not all bad.
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,以路博润为例,我们为股权支付近 90 亿美元,它产生的利润——你应该对债务做些调整,但这不是重要因素——目前年税前收益大概 10 亿美元。而路博润自身使用的资本要少得多,它大概用了 25 亿美元的资本来赚这 10 亿美元的税前利润,所以从所投入资产的效率来看,这是一家非常好的企业。但当我们最终支付溢价买下它时,就变成了用近 90 亿美元的投资去赚 10 亿美元税前利润。你得基于近 90 亿美元的投资来评判我们。而你得基于詹姆斯·汉布里克实际管理所动用的少得多的资本,来评判他的经营管理水平。结果很可能是,这是一家非常好的企业;但如果它并不像我们现在想的那么好,那我们可能至少犯了一个小错误,不过基于投入的有形资本来看,它依然是一家相当令人满意的企业。查理,你能讲得更清楚一点吗?(笑)
WARREN BUFFETTWell, on Lubrizol we're paying close to 9 billion for the equity, and it earns — and you should make adjustments for debt but it's not an important factor there — and, you know, current rate of earnings is probably a billion pretax. And now Lubrizol itself is employing far — you know, they're employing, you know, call it 2 1/2 billion of equity to earn that billion of pretax, so it's a very good business, in terms of the assets that are employed. But when we end up paying the premium we pay to buy into it, it becomes a billion pretax on something close to 9 billion. You have to judge us based on close to a $9 billion investment. You have to judge James Hambrick in running the business based on the much lower capital that he has employed. It can turn out to be a very good business, and we could turn out to have made at least a minor mistake if it isn't as good a business as we think it is now, but still is a very satisfactory business based on the tangible capital employed. Charlie, can you make that clearer? (Laughs)
查理·芒格嗯,其实就是——在现在这种环境下,我们不可能以低价买到任何一家还算像样的运营企业。这种情况根本不会出现。
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, it's just — we are not going to buy, in the climate we're in now, operating businesses that are at all decent for low prices. It's just not going to happen.
芒格极度推崇 Costco
Munger really loves Costco
沃伦·巴菲特卡罗尔?
WARREN BUFFETTCarol?
卡罗尔·卢米斯在珍妮特·洛写的那本关于查理的书《说得太对了!》(Damn Right!)里,查理谈到了他对金融教学的看法。他说他会用大约一百家做对了什么或做错了什么的公司历史,作为教这门课的基础。你们两位——既然这说的是查理的看法——你们两位可否——先从查理开始——各举一两个例子,正面的也行,反面的也行?
CAROL LOOMISIn a book about Charlie, "Damn Right!" by Janet Lowe, Charlie talks about his view on teaching finance. He says that he would use the histories of a hundred or so companies that did something right or wrong as a basis for teaching the course. Could each of you — and since this concerned Charlie, could each of you — we'll start with Charlie — give us an example or two from either category, right moves or wrong moves?
沃伦·巴菲特我猜查理要讲 Costco。你说吧,查理。(笑)
WARREN BUFFETTI predict Charlie is going to talk about Costco. Go ahead, Charlie. (Laughs)
查理·芒格嗯,Costco,当然,是一家——(笑声)——在它那个品类里做到了全球最好的企业,它实现这一点的办法,是实行极致的精英管理,同时抱有一种极致的道德责任感,一种自我约束:把自己能积累起来的每一项成本优势,都以最快的速度传递给顾客。这自然创造出了极其牢固的顾客忠诚度。看着这家企业成长,真是一种享受,而且,当你这样做并且做得足够久的时候,就会发生一些不寻常的事。Costco 在韩国有一家门店,今年销售额将超过 4 亿美元。这些数字在零售业中本不该存在,但,当然,它们确实存在。所以,这是一个例子:有人拥有正确的管理体系、正确的选人标准、正确的道德操守、正确的勤奋,等等等等,不一而足。这是非常罕见的。如果你一生中能有一两次跟这样的企业联系在一起,那你就是一个极其幸运的人。而更为常见的企业,则是像通用汽车那样的:它曾经是全球同类企业里最成功的一家,却在大约去年让普通股股东血本无归,对吧?这是一个极为有趣的故事,如果我在商学院教书,我会用类似 Value Line 那样的图表,带学生把通用汽车的全部历史梳理一遍。我会试着把图表和数据的变化,跟企业当时发生的实际情况联系起来。从某种程度上说,他们面临着一个真正棘手的难题:一个工会力量强大的企业,叠加巨大的成功,再遇上来自亚洲和其他地方、某种程度上也来自欧洲的极其强悍的竞争对手。这是一个真实存在的问题,当然——如何防止财富反过来害了你,防止你的成功演变成劣势,这在商业中是一个大难题。所以,这些图表里蕴含着所有这些绝妙的教训。我真不明白为什么人们不这样做。我用来教书的那种图表,现在甚至根本不存在。我简直无法想象,居然会有人迟钝到连我渴望的那种图表都不去制作。(笑声)可据我所知,美国还没有哪家商学院渴望拥有这样的图表。部分原因在于,他们不想这样做,因为如果你用这种方式讲授商业史,你就会踩进各个细分学科里那些小教授们的地盘。你会偷走他们一些最好的案例。而在官僚体系里,哪怕是学术界的官僚体系里,人们都要护住自己的地盘。当然,在通用汽车内部就发生过许多这样的事。(掌声)是的。这真的——我真的认为,世界本该这样教。哈佛商学院早年曾在很大程度上这样教过,后来他们不教了。我倒想就此做一个案例研究,探究一下他们为什么不教了。(笑声)我想我能——我想我能猜出个大概。原因当然就是,商业史教学踩进了其他学科“大佬们”的地盘,比如营销学的大佬、金融学的大佬、其他随便什么领域的大佬。IBM 也是一个有趣的案例。我是说,这样引人入胜的案例一个接一个,我认为它们根本就没有被用正确的方式教授,因为没有人愿意去做这种全景式的梳理。
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, Costco, of course, is a — (laughter) — a business that became the best in the world in its category, and it did it with an extreme meritocracy and an extreme ethical duty, self-imposed, to take all its cost advantages as fast as it could accumulate them and pass them onto the customers. And, of course, that created ferocious customer loyalty. And it's been a wonderful business to watch, and, of course, strange things happen when you do that and do that long enough. Costco has one store in Korea that will do over 400 million in sales this year. These are figures that can't exist in retailing, but, of course, they do. And so that's an example of somebody having the right managerial system, the right personnel selection, the right ethics, the right diligence and et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. That is quite rare. And if you — if once or twice in a lifetime you're associated with such a business, you're a very lucky person. And the more normal business is a business like, say, General Motors, which became the most successful business of its kind in the world and wiped out its common shareholders, what, last year? That is a very interesting story, and if I were teaching in a business school, I would have Value Line-type figures that took people through the entire history of General Motors. And I would try and relate the changes in the graph and in the data to what happened in the business. And to some extent, they faced a really difficult problem: heavily unionized business, combined with great success, and very tough competitors who came up from Asia and elsewhere, and to some extent from Europe. And that is a real problem, which, of course — to prevent wealth from killing you, your success turning into a disadvantage, is a big problem in business. And so there are all these wonderful lessons in those graphs. And I don't know why people don't do it. The graphs don't even exist that I would use to teach. I can't imagine anybody being dumb enough not to have the kind of graphs I yearn for. (Laughter) But so far as I know there's no business school in the country that's yearning for these graphs. Partly the reason they don't want it is if you taught a history of business this way you'd be trampling on the territories of all the little professors in subdisciplines. You'd be stealing some of their best cases. And in bureaucracies, even academic bureaucracies, people protect their own turf. And, of course, a lot of that happened at General Motors. (Applause) Yeah. It's a — I really think the world — that's the way it should be taught. Harvard Business School once taught it much that way, and they stopped. I'd like to make a case study as to why they stopped. (Laughter) I think I can — I think I can successfully guess. It's that, of course, the history of business trampled on the territory of barons of other disciplines like the baron of marketing, the baron of finance, the baron of whatever. And IBM is an interesting case. I mean, there's just one after another that are utterly fascinating, and I don't think they're properly taught at all because nobody wants to do the full sweep.
沃伦·巴菲特查理和我最近乘坐的飞机被劫持了。
WARREN BUFFETTCharlie and I were on a plane recently that was hijacked.
查理·芒格用什么?
CHARLIE MUNGERWith what?
沃伦·巴菲特是那次劫机。我在讲那架被劫持飞机上的经历,劫机者把我们两个挑出来,认定我们是必须处决的两个肮脏资本家。不过他们对此有点不好意思,其实跟我们也没什么过节,就说开枪之前每人可以提一个请求。他们转向查理,问:“你想要什么请求?”查理说:“我想再讲一遍关于 Costco 种种优点的演讲,配上图解。”(笑声)劫机者说:“嗯,这个要求听着挺合理的。”然后他转向我,问:“你呢,巴菲特先生,你想要什么?”我说:“先开枪打我。”(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTIt was hijacked. I'm telling about our experience on that hijacked plane when the hijackers picked us out as the two dirty capitalists that they really had to execute. But they were a little abashed about it. They didn't really have anything against us, so they said that each of us would be given one request before they shot us, and they turned to Charlie and they said, “What would you like as your request?” Charlie said, “I would like to give once more my speech on the virtues of Costco, with illustrations.” (Laughter) And the hijacker said, “Well, that sounds pretty reasonable to me." And he turned to me and said, “And what would you like, Mr. Buffett?” And I said, “Shoot me first.” (Laughter)
查理·芒格不管怎样。
CHARLIE MUNGERAnyway.
激励孩子
Incentivizing kids
沃伦·巴菲特好了,3 号。
WARREN BUFFETTOK. Number 3.
现场股东我是来自印度克什米尔的 Sumat Mehra(音)。巴菲特先生,希望您喜欢您的第一次印度之旅。
AUDIENCE MEMBERSumat Mehra (PH) from Kashmir in India. Mr. Buffett, hope you enjoyed your first trip to India.
沃伦·巴菲特那当然。
WARREN BUFFETTI sure did.
现场股东我的问题是,驱动人的最重要因素之一是激励,但如果你生活在富裕社会,很难让你的孩子努力工作和发挥全部潜力,因为他们根本不需要。所以如果您或查理决定在未来五年内要个孩子——(笑声)
AUDIENCE MEMBERHere's my question. One of the most important things that drive people are incentives, but if you live in a rich society it's very hard to get your kids to work hard and reach their full potential because they just don't need to. So if you or Charlie decide to have a kid in the next five years — (Laughter)
查理·芒格那将是东方之星。
CHARLIE MUNGERIt would be a star in the east.
沃伦·巴菲特那需要的不只是一个决定。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTIt will take more than a decision. (Laughter)
现场股东你会如何激励他或她——
AUDIENCE MEMBERHow would you incentivize him or her —
沃伦·巴菲特我以为你要说“你会如何?”(笑声)不,这是个好问题。我道歉,打断了你。
WARREN BUFFETTI thought you were going to say, "How would you?" (Laughter) No, it's a good question. I apologize for interrupting.
现场股东您会如何激励他或她,与来自中国、巴西、俄罗斯或印度这些新兴市场的饥饿且充满动力的孩子们竞争?
AUDIENCE MEMBERHow would you incentivize him or her to compete among the hungry and highly motivated kids from emerging markets like China, Brazil, Russia, or India?
沃伦·巴菲特我确实认为,如果你非常富有,却把孩子养得让他们觉得自己在社会上比别人更重要,或者享有某种特殊特权,仅仅因为他们投对了娘胎,那你知道,这就是一个巨大的错误。但查理养了八个孩子,我对他们大多相当了解,我不觉得他们任何人有那种感觉。不过——如果你真打算把孩子养得觉得别人都该替他们干所有的活,他们这辈子有资格坐着自己扇扇子,我的意思是,你大概不会有什么好结果。我——你知道,就我而言——查理在他的孩子们——他很多孩子——成长的大部分时间里已经很富了,我在我的孩子们成长时——至少在他们上高中和大学时——也已经很富了,但我不觉得——我当然不想让他们产生一种想法,觉得就因为父母有钱自己就很特殊。而且我也不认为,父母有钱就必然导致坏结果,或者养出毫无动力的孩子。唯有一件事我不想给他们动力,就是试图在父母碰巧擅长的领域去超越父母。我觉得这没道理,不管你是职业运动员,还是有钱人,或者是一位大作家,等等,随你怎么说。但我真的认为,如果你有钱,而你的孩子最后缺乏动力,我觉得你不该去指他们。我觉着你大概该指指自己。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTI think certainly that if you are very rich and you bring up your kids to think that they are more important in society, or that they have some special privilege, simply because they came out of the right womb, that, you know, that's just a terrible mistake. But Charlie has raised eight children that I know quite well, most of them, and I don't think any of them have that sense. But it's — if you really are going to raise your kids to think that other people should do all the work for them and that they will be entitled to sit around and fan themselves for the rest of their lives, I mean, you know, you will probably not get a good result. I — you know, in my — Charlie has been rich most of the time when his kids — many of his kids — were growing up — some of his kids were growing up, I've been rich while my kids were getting — certainly when they got into high school and college — but I don't think — I certainly didn't want to give them the idea that they were special just because their parents were rich. And I don't think you necessarily have to get a bad result or have children that don't have any incentives simply because their parents are rich. The one thing I don't think you want to give them an incentive to do is try and outdo their parents at what their parents happen to be good at. I don't think that makes sense, whether if you are a professional athlete, or a rich person, or whatever it may be, a great novelist, you name it. But I really think if you're rich and your kids turn out to have no incentives, I don't think you should point at them. I think you should probably point at yourself. Charlie?
查理·芒格嗯,我觉得你不可能在富裕家庭里养孩子,还指望他们热爱一周 60 个小时在大太阳底下挖篱笆桩洞之类的活儿。那根本行不通。所以在某种程度上,你确实在摧毁某些类型的激励因素。我对你的建议是,尽量优雅地认输吧。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I don't think you can raise children in an affluent family and have them love working 60 hours a week in the hot sun digging fence post holes or something. That's not going to work. So to some extent, you are destroying certain kinds of incentives. And my advice to you is to lose your fight as gracefully as you can. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特我不确定你要是穷人,就能让孩子爱上每周工作 60 小时。他们可能不得不,但——
WARREN BUFFETTI'm not sure if you're poor if you can get your kids to love the idea of working 60 hours a week. They may have to, but —
查理·芒格确实对某件事着迷的孩子,不管多富都会干活。但像阿吉特那样强烈的兴趣很少见。你知道,你要是肛肠科医生,一天天干下去,可能也不会喜欢自己的工作。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERKids that really get interested in something will work no matter how rich they are. But it's rare to have an Ajit-like intensity of interest. You know, if you were a proctologist, you might not like your day as it went on and on. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特我想我们该继续了。贝基?(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTI think we better move along. Becky? (Laughter)
伯克希尔下任 CEO 的薪酬激励
Compensation incentives for Berkshire's next CEO
贝基·奎克这个问题来自爱荷华州中部的一位股东,他问:“伯克希尔·哈撒韦之所以做得好,部分原因是经理们出于非金钱原因愿意留在这里。但看来下任运营 CEO 很可能会是一个坚持年薪超过 10 万美元的人。你对伯克希尔下一代领导层的薪酬结构有什么预期?”
BECKY QUICKThis question comes from a shareholder from central Iowa who asks, “Berkshire Hathaway does well, in part, because its managers want to be there for nonpecuniary reasons. But it seems likely that the next operations CEO will be best be filled by someone who insists on a salary of more than $100,000. "What kind of compensation structure do you expect for the next generation of Berkshire leadership?”
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我觉得下任 CEO 会赚很多钱,也应该赚很多钱。我是说,管理一家市值两三千亿美元的公司,责任重大,理应高薪。我认为,无论董事会那时决定的底薪水平如何,都应当辅以一个期权体系,这个体系可能包含一些不寻常的因素。我不认为期权价格——最初的行权价——应该低于公司如果出售所能拿到的资产价值。所以,在股市低迷时期按市价给人发期权,我觉得太荒唐了,因为你不会按那个价卖掉你的企业,凭什么按那个基础卖掉一部分呢。所以我认为基础价格应该等于你开始时候的企业价值,然后,由于把钱留在那里产生的复利效应——你知道,就算完全没管理,随着时间推移也会产生一些价值增长——所以我认为,基础价格应该每年以某个比率递增,然后减去已支付的股息。所以,如果你假设支付了 3% 的股息,又想设定一个每年增长 7% 或 8% 的基准回报率,那么期权的行权价大概每年以 4% 或 5% 的速度递增。有了这种结构,我认为可以给非常大规模的期权,因为——如果某人在很大基数上创造了超过给定比率的超额价值,我觉得他们应该因这份超额获得相当可观的回报。现在,他们——现有的薪酬体系跟我继任者该拿多少毫不相干。关键是要找到对的人,有正确的价值观,能与经理们良好互动,懂得资本配置。就像刚才你听到的,我们的经理们干出了很多成绩,如果——如果他们掌管着大业务,这些成绩能变成大笔钱——他们可以在伯克希尔赚很多钱。他们——没有哪件事是基于查理和我高层的怪癖来运作。所以,你知道,有时人们能在伯克希尔赚到八位数。但他们挣到了,而且不是因为任何虚假目标之类的东西。他们拿钱是因为他们确实给伯克希尔创造了巨额超额价值,有些案例简直不可思议。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTWell, I think the next CEO will make a lot of money and should make a lot of money. I mean, the responsibility for running a company with a couple hundred billion dollars of market value should pay well. I think that whatever the level the board decides then, in terms of a base salary, should be supplemented by, probably, an option system that incorporates a couple things that are perhaps unusual. I don't think the option price — the original strike price — should be less than if the company were for sale, the assets would bring. So the idea of giving somebody an option during some depressed part of the stock market at the market price, I think, is crazy because you wouldn't sell your business at that price and why sell part of it on that basis. So I think the base price should be what the business is worth at the time you start, and then I think if, because of the compounding feature of leaving money there — you know, no management at all would produce some gain in value over time — so I think there should be an increase in the base price annually at some rate, and then minus the dividend that's being paid. So, if you assume a 3 percent dividend was paid, and you wanted to have a hurdle rate of increasing at 7 or 8 percent a year, then you would have the option price accelerate, maybe, at 4 or 5 percent. But with that kind of a structure, I think you can give a very large option because you — if somebody is creating excess value above a given rate on a very large sum, I think they deserve something quite significant in terms of that excess earned. Now, they — the present compensation system has no relevance at all to what my successor should earn. The main thing is getting the right person with the right values who interacts well with the managers and who knows how to allocate capital. And as you just heard a little earlier, our managers who accomplish a lot, if they — and if they're working with big operations so that it turns into a lot of dollars — they can make a lot of money with Berkshire. They — nothing is worked off the eccentricities of Charlie and me at the top level. So, you know, people make well into eight figures, sometimes, at Berkshire. But they earn it, and they don't get it because of any phony targets or anything of that sort. They get it because they really deliver incredible, in some cases, excess value to Berkshire. Charlie?
查理·芒格嗯,我希望那会是遥远的将来,我并不觉得完全不可能,有一天沃伦的位置会被一个非常富有、采用了沃伦薪酬制度的人占据。我觉得美国总得有人做个榜样,不拼命抓取一切能拿的。我认为这在整个体系里非常重要。(掌声)
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I hope it will be a long time in the future, and I don't regard it as absolutely inconceivable that Warren's spot will someday be occupied by a very rich man who has adopted Warren's system of pay. I think somebody in America has to be the exemplar for not grabbing all that you can. I think it's a very important part of the whole scheme. (Applause)
沃伦·巴菲特不过我觉得,在我走了之后,你最好别登广告说“招聘 CEO,年薪 10 万美元,环境宜人”。(笑)
WARREN BUFFETTI don't think you better run an ad, though, after I go, that says CEO wanted, $100,000 pay plus pleasant surroundings. (Laughs)
社会问题重要但不影响投资决策
Societal issues are important but don't affect investment decisions
沃伦·巴菲特好。我们到第四个问题。
WARREN BUFFETTOK. We'll go to number 4.
现场股东嗨,巴菲特先生,芒格先生。我叫维恩·库申伯里,这个问题代表一群今天从堪萨斯州欧弗兰帕克赶来的投资者问的。鉴于你对可再生能源和自然资源的兴趣,我想知道你是否愿意分享,在一个清洁水资源有限且耗尽、粮食库存下降的世界里,这对你的投资策略和未来思考有何影响。
AUDIENCE MEMBERHi, Mr. Buffett, Mr. Munger. My name is Vern Cushenbery and this question is on behalf of a group of investors that made the trip up today from Overland Park, Kansas. Given your interest in renewable energy and natural resources, I wonder if you'd be willing to share your thoughts on how a world of limited and depleting clean water supplies and declining food stocks affects your investment strategies and thinking on the future.
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我想说这是个重要主题,但对我们的投资策略没有实质性影响。换句话说,你知道,我们很乐意再买一个 GEICO。我们很乐意再买一个 BNSF。我们很乐意再买一个 MidAmerican。我们看这些业务时看的是长期,但我们看的是我们预期它们三、五、十、十五年后盈利能力与当前支付价格的关系。所以我会说,有很多社会问题其实并不影响我们的投资或购买企业的决策。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, I would say it's an important subject but it doesn't affect our investment strategy to any real degree. In other words, you know, we would love to buy another GEICO. We would love to buy another BNSF. We'd love to buy another MidAmerican. And we look at those businesses over a long time frame, but we are looking at what we expect their earning power to be three, five, 10, 15 years down the road compared to what we are paying. So I would say that there are a number of societal issues that really do not enter into our investment or purchase of business-type decisions. Charlie?
查理·芒格嗯,我建议别太关注清洁水的问题。只要有足够的能源,你总能搞到足够的清洁水。以色列有时一连好几个月,一半的水来自海水。有足够的能源,水的问题就解决了。这对考虑未来很有帮助。至于农业生产力,我认为谨慎使用碳氢化合物的一大原因,就是没有它们现代农业就没法运转。所以,在把碳氢化合物都烧来取暖和开车这事上,我主张保守。想想看,如果我们当初把中东那些一美元一桶的石油弄来,存进盐穴里,我们现在该多开心。我是说,你可以说我们过去搞砸了,也可以说那些认为主要解决方案就是拼命钻、钻、钻的人——他们都疯了。(笑声和掌声)用别人的碳氢化合物,同时保留我们自己的,很可能非常明智。它不会消失,因为我们现在不钻它。但你可以看出这会引向没结果的讨论。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I would advise not paying too much attention to the clean water issue. If there's enough energy, you can always get enough clean water. Israel sometimes goes month after month making half its water from sea water. With enough energy, why, you have — the water problem goes away. And that's very helpful in considering the future. And regarding the agricultural productivity, I think one of the main reasons for being restrained in the use of hydrocarbons is that modern agriculture won't work without them. So I'm a great believer in being conservative, in terms of blowing all the hydrocarbons on heating houses and running cars. I think that — think of how happy we'd be if we'd taken a bunch of that dollar oil in the Middle East and just carted it here and put it in salt caverns. I mean you could argue that we really screwed up the past, and you could argue all the people who think that our main solution is to drill, drill, drill. They're all nuts. (Laughter and applause) It's probably quite wise to use up the other fellow's hydrocarbon while preserving our own. It's not going away because we are not drilling it now. But you can see that this will lead into unproductive discussion. (Laughter)
我们不会参与任何公司的竞拍
We wouldn't participate in an auction for any company
沃伦·巴菲特好。我们接着回答安德鲁的问题。
WARREN BUFFETTOK. We'll move right onto Andrew.
安德鲁·罗斯·索金下一个问题,实际上是现场观众通过黑莓发来的邮件,是一位不愿透露姓名的知名投资者。他的问题如下:他写道,“你们收购路博润是通过协商交易完成的。路博润的董事会没有把公司推向市场或进行竞拍。根据代理声明,尽管你们允许他们那样做,你们却没让公司进行寻找其他买家的流程。路博润的董事会没有通过更具竞争性的流程来出售公司,是否违反了信托义务?如果没有,为什么没有?”
ANDREW ROSS SORKINThis next question, actually, just came in by email from someone in the audience from their BlackBerry, actually a prominent investor that asked that his name not be named. And his question is the following: He writes, “Your purchase of Lubrizol was done in a negotiated transaction. The board of Lubrizol did not market the company for sale nor run an auction. "According to the proxy, you did not permit the company to run a go-shop process, despite the requests you allow them to do so. "Did the board of Lubrizol breach its fiduciary duty by not running a more competitive process to sell the company? And if not, why not?”
查理·芒格我来答吧。
CHARLIE MUNGERLet me do this.
沃伦·巴菲特好。查理来。(笑声)他主动请缨——
WARREN BUFFETTOK. Charlie will. (Laughter) He volunteers —
查理·芒格答案是没有,路博润董事会并未违反其义务,因为他们如果不按我们的方式来,我们根本不会参与这笔交易。(笑声与掌声)
CHARLIE MUNGERThe answer is no, the board at Lubrizol did not breach its duty because we were not going to participate in the transaction if they didn't do it our way. (Laughter and applause)
沃伦·巴菲特对,我们基本不参与拍卖。而且就在最近,有人请我们参与一场拍卖,我们就是不感兴趣。他们最终拿到的钱,可能还不如从我们这儿能拿到的多。但如果他们想拍卖,有一件事我可以向他们打包票:等他们完完整整走完拍卖流程,我们付的钱绝不会是当初他们直接来找我们时我们愿意付的那个价。所以他们拿到了一个板上钉钉的交易,在我看来,以及在两位顾问看来,还拿到了一个相当可观的价格。要是他们当时说“我们想拍出去”,我们就会说“祝你们好运”,然后我们就去看别的机会了。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, we basically don't participate in auctions. And actually, just very, very recently we were asked to participate in one, and we're just not interested. They may end up getting less money than they would have gotten from us. But if they want to auction it, the one thing I can guarantee them, you know, is that when they get all through, we will not pay them what we would have them paid originally if they stepped up. So they get a very certain deal, they got a very significant price, in my view, and in the view of two advisors. And if they had said we want to conduct an auction, we would have said good luck, and we'd have looked at something else.
查理·芒格还有哪位要问个简单点儿的吗?(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERHas anybody else got an easy question? (Laughter)
如何判断巴菲特在资本配置上做得好不好
How to judge if Buffett is doing a good job of allocating capital
沃伦·巴菲特好,第 5 区。
WARREN BUFFETTOK. Number 5.
现场股东嗨,查理。我这问题应该算简单的。我叫——
AUDIENCE MEMBERHi, Charlie. I think I have an easy question. My name is —
沃伦·巴菲特那给我呀。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTGive it to me then. (Laughter)
现场股东我叫斯图尔特·凯(Stuart Kaye),来自康涅狄格州斯坦福德的马塔林资本管理公司。沃伦,你常说你的工作很大一部分是资本配置。往后看,光看伯克希尔的财务报表,我们怎么判断你在资本配置上做得好不好?
AUDIENCE MEMBERMy name is Stuart Kaye from Matarin Capital Management in Stanford, Connecticut. And, Warren, you've often described a big part of your job is allocating capital. Going forward, by just looking at Berkshire's financial statements, how can we determine how good of a job you have done at allocating capital?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,真正的检验在于盈利的增长速度是否与留存资本的规模相匹配。长期来看,还要经过市值检验——但市场本身可能剧烈波动,反复无常——不过长期而言,显然,我们——除非伯克希尔的市值显著超过我们从你们那里留存下来并用于收购企业的资本总额,就是说——如果我们哪天开始以低于这个标准的折价交易,那判词就对我不利。但你就是得——这也并非完美的衡量尺,可以肯定的是不能看三个月、六个月甚至一年的周期——但拉长时间看,如果我们打算留着你们的钱,我们就必须为这些留存的资金赚得高于市场平均的回报,这还得转化为股价,使其高于我们从你们那里留存的资金。到目前为止我们做得还行,但这项任务每年都在变得更难。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTWell, the real test will be whether the earnings progress at a rate that's commensurate with the amount of capital that's being retained. And over time, a market value test — but markets can be very volatile and capricious — but over time, obviously, we — unless the market value of Berkshire is significantly greater than the amount of capital that we have kept from you, retained, and used to buy businesses, you know — the verdict is against us if we ever start selling at a discount to that factor. But you just have — and, you know, it is not a perfect measurement and certainly is not on any three-month or six months or even one-year basis, but over time, if we're going to keep your money, we have to earn a better-than-average return on that money we keep and that has to translate into the stock selling at a premium over the money we retain from you. And so far we've done OK on that, but the job gets tougher every year. Charlie?
查理·芒格是啊。我们一直在跑赢市场平均水平。我们只是没有跑赢我们自己过去的记录罢了。而且我可以保证,这一情况还会继续下去,至少后半句的保证是板儿上钉钉的。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah. We have continued to beat the market averages. We just aren't beating our own past record. And I guarantee that will continue, at least the last half of it. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特是啊。只有后半句是板上钉钉,对吧?
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Only the last half of it, right?
查理·芒格对。
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah.
别把眼前的机会跟你历史上最成功的交易做比较
Don't compare opportunities now to your best-ever deal
沃伦·巴菲特好。卡罗尔?
WARREN BUFFETTOK. Carol?
卡罗尔·卢米斯这个问题来自迈克·里夫金。他想问最近几年你做的五笔条款各不相同的交易。高盛:50 亿美元,利率 10%,附认股权证;通用电气:50 亿美元,利率 10%,附认股权证;陶氏化学:30 亿美元,利率 8.5%,可转换为普通股;箭牌-玛氏:44 亿美元,利率 11.45%;瑞士再保险:27 亿美元,利率 12%。为什么你设定的利率差别这么大?为什么有些交易里附了认股权证?还有,富有的玛氏家族为什么需要 44 亿美元来做一笔交易,而且利率是 11.45%?
CAROL LOOMISThis question is from Mike Rifkin (PH). He wants to ask about five transactions you've made in recent years with very different terms. Goldman, 5 billion at 10 percent plus warrants; GE, five billion at ten percent plus warrants; Dow Chemical, 3 billion at 8.5 percent convertible to common; Wrigley- M&M Mars, 4.4 billion at 11.45; Swiss Re 2.7 billion at 12 percent. Now, why the different interest rates you set and how about why the warrants in some cases, and why did the rich Mars family need 4.4 billion to do a deal, and at 11.45 percent?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,玛氏家族的问题让他们自己回答。但要对比这五笔交易,通用电气那笔是 30 亿美元,而玛氏的交易实际上包含了 21 亿美元的优先股,有些特殊条款,所以你得把它看成一个整体。关键是,这些交易每笔都是在不同时间点做的,虽然高盛和通用电气的时间挨得很近。市场状况——你知道,你在电影里听查理谈到过机会成本。在这五笔交易中,我们的机会成本每笔都不一样。顺便说一句,我们本可以做得更好——我本可以在恐慌过后的时期里把资金配置做得更好。跟五个月后的情况相比,我在高盛和通用电气上动手太早了。但你知道,我们不仅没有完美的先见之明,有时候还相当糟糕。但每笔交易——当我做瑞士再保险那笔时,我并没有想着陶氏化学的交易,那笔交易可能是在一年多前承诺的。我考虑的是拿这 27 亿美元还能做什么别的,所有决策都是这么来的。所以它们之间没有关联——互不相关。它们是在一个大脑里经过,这个大脑在看当天所有可用的选项,包括我们手头的现金、下周或下个月能不能做成别的事、当天还能做什么。过去做过的交易其实无关紧要。事实上,有一件事——人们在商业中犯的一个错误——有时可能是个大错误——就是试图拿每笔交易跟自己做过的最成功的那笔去比。于是他们说,我做过一笔多么棒的交易,可能是一份保险单、可能是一家公司收购、可能是一只股票买入,然后他们下定决心,今后再也不会做一笔吸引力不如那次的交易。结果,实际上——有时他们就把自己踢出了局。目标不是要做出比过去更好的交易。目标是在当时条件下,做出你能做的最好的、令人满意的交易。查理把这跟婚姻联系起来,我让他展开说说。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTWell, we'll let the Mars family speak for themselves. But in terms of comparing those five deals, it was 3 billion with GE, and the Mars deal actually involved a $2.1 billion preferred stock, which has some usual characteristics, so you have to look at it as a package. But the important thing is that every one of these deals was done at a different time, although the Goldman and the GE deals were done in close proximity with each other. And market conditions — you know, you heard Charlie in the movie talk about opportunity costs. Our opportunity costs were different in every single one of those five transactions. And incidentally, we could have done a much better — I could have done a much better — job of allocating our money, you know, in terms of the post-panic period. I was early on Goldman and GE, compared to the situation five months later. But, you know, we don't have — we not only don't have perfect foresight, sometimes it's pretty bad. But each deal — when I did the Swiss Re deal, I was not thinking about the Dow Chemical deal, which was committed to, maybe, a year-plus earlier. I was thinking about what else I could do with $2.7 billion, and that's the way all the decisions are made. So they are not related — they're not related to each other. They go through a mind that is looking at everything available that day, including the amount of cash we have, the likelihood of being able to do something else next week or next month, what else we can do that day. And past deals we've made don't really make any difference. In fact, one of the things — one of the errors people make in business — and sometimes it can be a huge error — is that they try and measure every deal against the best deal they've ever made. So they say, you know, I made this wonderful deal for, maybe, an insurance policy written, or it might be a company bought, it might be a stock bought, and they're determined that they're never going to make a deal that isn't that attractive in the future. So they, in effect — sometimes they take themselves out of the game. The goal is not to make a better deal than you've ever made before. The goal is to make a satisfactory deal that's the best deal you can make at the time. And Charlie relates it to marriage, and I'll let him expand on that. (Laughter)
查理·芒格不,那些——当然,我们会在不同时间,基于不同的机会成本,做不同的交易。没有其他理性的做交易的方法。
CHARLIE MUNGERNo, those are — of course, we're going to make different deals at different times based on different opportunity costs. There's no other rational way to make deals.
你不必读得快,但你得读
You don't have to read quickly but you should read
沃伦·巴菲特好。我们到第 6 个。
WARREN BUFFETTOK. We'll go to number 6.
现场股东基思·麦高恩,来自马萨诸塞州诺福克。谢谢巴菲特先生和芒格先生。谢谢你们给我树立榜样。你们的道德、节俭、幽默感、诚实,以及分享投资和商业见解,让这个世界对每个人都变得更美好。(掌声)查理在之前的回答里提到了持续学习。巴菲特先生,你每天读大约五份报纸,还读很多年报和其他商业相关报告。你读得比绝大多数人都快得多。阅读是一件很棒的事。对于那些想提高阅读速度的孩子、高中生、大学生或成年人,你有什么建议?
AUDIENCE MEMBERKeith McGowan, Norfolk, Massachusetts. Thank you, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. Thank you for being a role model. Your ethics, frugality, sense of humor, honesty, sharing your ideas on investing, sharing your ideas on business, make this world a better place for everyone. (Applause) Charlie mentioned in a prior answer about continuous learning. Mr. Buffett, you read about five newspapers a day. You also read many annual reports and other business-related reports. You have the ability to read much faster than the vast majority of people. Reading is a fantastic thing. What advice would you give to children in high school, college, or adults who want to increase their ability to read faster?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,这是个有趣的问题,因为我确实像你说的那样,读五份报纸和大量 10-K 和 10-Q 报告。不幸的是,我读得并不快,而且不如以前快了。但我不知道各种快速阅读课程有多有效,如果它们有效的话,你知道,我会——我真建议任何人,只要能提高速度——我希望自己能读得快得多。查理比我读得快。读得快是个巨大优势。而且,你知道,有个老伍迪·艾伦的故事,说他上了快速阅读课,碰见一个人,就跟他讲这课程有多棒。那人说:“那你举个例子。”伍迪·艾伦说:“嗯,”他说,“我昨晚 20 分钟读完了《战争与和平》。讲的是俄罗斯。”(笑声)这就是我试着读快时碰到的问题。我把书读完,然后说,这本书讲的是商业,你知道,所以——我真的不知道快速阅读课程的效果如何,但如果你有朋友知道——你可以多了解一些,有些技巧确实有效。显然,最好的办法是趁年轻时学会,因为真的——没什么比读书、读书、再读书更让人愉悦的事了。查理和我读得很多。我们一直在大量阅读。但我的速度没有自己希望的那么快。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTWell, you know that's an interesting question because I do read, as you described, the five papers and lots of 10Ks and 10Qs. Unfortunately, I'm not a fast reader, and I'm not as fast as I used to be on reading. But I don't know how effective various speed reading classes may be, but if they are effective, you know, I would — I would really suggest anybody that can improve their speed — I wish I could read a lot faster than I can. Charlie can read faster than I can. And it's a huge advantage to be able to read fast. And, you know, there's a that old Woody Allen story about how he took the speed reading course, and he met somebody, he was telling him how wonderful it was, and the guy said, "Well, give me an example." And Woody Allen said, "Well," he said. "I read 'War and Peace' last night in 20 minutes. It's about Russia." (Laughter) That's the problem I have when I try and read fast. I get all through reading the book, and I say, it’s about business, you know, so — I really don't know the effectiveness of speed reading-type courses, but if you know of any friends or — you can learn more about that, and there are effective techniques. Obviously, the thing to do is to learn them very young because there really — there's nothing — there's hardly anything more pleasurable, you know, than reading and reading and reading and reading. And Charlie and I do a lot of it. We continue do a lot of it. But I don't do it as fast as I would like to. Charlie?
查理·芒格嗯,我觉得速度被高估了。我在加州理工学院有个室友,脑子特别厉害,我解题比他快,但他从来不出错,而我老出错。(笑声)所以,如果你必须慢一点,别太灰心。那又能有什么区别呢?(笑声和掌声)把那盒花生脆递过来,沃伦。
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I think speed is overestimated. I had a roommate at Caltech who had a very distinguished mind, and I could do problems faster than he could, but he never made a mistake, and I did. (Laughter) So, I wouldn't be too discouraged if you have to go a little slower. What the hell difference does it make? (Laughter and applause) Pass that peanut brittle, Warren.
沃伦·巴菲特好的。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah.
查理·芒格谢谢。谢谢。
CHARLIE MUNGERThank you. Thank you.
沃伦·巴菲特你可能注意到了,我们在另一个房间有卖 15 磅装的盒子,但查理在找 25 磅装的。
WARREN BUFFETTYou may have noticed we have a 15-pound box out for sale in the other room, but Charlie is looking for a 25-pound box.
巴菲特:甚至不应该有债务上限
Buffett: There shouldn't even be a debt ceiling
沃伦·巴菲特贝基?
WARREN BUFFETTBecky?
贝基·奎克这个问题来自埃里克·怀斯曼,他问:“你担心国会就提高债务上限搞政治操弄吗?这对伯克希尔·哈撒韦的股票和整体经济会有什么影响?”
BECKY QUICKThis question comes from Eric Wiseman (PH) who asks, "Are you worried about Congress playing politics with the raising of the debt ceiling? What would this do to Berkshire Hathaway stock and to the overall economy?"
沃伦·巴菲特你的意思是如果他们不提高?
WARREN BUFFETTYou mean if they didn't raise it?
贝基·奎克对,如果不提高。
BECKY QUICKIf they didn't raise it, right.
沃伦·巴菲特是啊,这很可能是国会有史以来最愚蠢的举动。19 世纪 90 年代,印第安纳州有一次,我记得他们通过了一项法案——我知道有人提过,你们可以去搜索引擎查查——他们通过了一项法案,要把圆周率 π 改成整整 3——(笑声)——因为说这样小学生运算起来就方便多了。嗯,这是我唯一能想到的,能跟拒绝提高债务上限有一拼的法案。我的意思是,这太离谱了。我是说,确实离谱,我们每个月的赤字远超 1000 亿美元,还有各种根本没法改的支出项——我是说——设置债务上限这件事从一开始就是个错误。我的意思是,它并不——2011 年的美国和 1911 年的美国,债务承载能力是不一样的,而我们一直在——这个国家会不断增长,我们的债务承载能力也会不断增长。这不代表我认为债务占 GDP 的比重不断增长是什么好主意。但债务上限这个东西——就是放在那儿——让这些把戏得以反复上演,浪费大量时间,还有其他一切,还有,你听到的那些——不计其数的——蠢话。对于一个有那么多事情要做的国家来说,这怎么看都是在浪费时间。但到最后,他们不会,依我看——他们不可能不提高债务上限,我倒真想看到他们——嗯,我倒真想看到他们把这个念头直接取消掉,因为它会导致周期性的僵局,人人都拿它来摆姿态,诸如此类。只要我们还用本国货币发行国债,美国就不会出现任何形式的债务危机。要知道,能用本币借钱和不得不用外币借钱,这两者有天壤之别。我们唯一需要担心的就是印钞机和通胀。如果你是欧元区、欧洲货币联盟的成员国,你就得担心——你不能自己印钱。你可以去找其他成员国,试着让他们帮你脱困。但放弃用本国货币发债的权利,是极其重大的一步。美国还没走出这一步。我不知道我们是否发行过以其他货币计价的美国国债,但我们肯定没养成这个习惯。另外,顺便提一句,日本,其债务与 GDP 的比率非常高,也一直是用本币借钱。相信我,到了该还钱的时候,你可以选择——当你被迫用别国货币还钱,跟用本币还钱——完全是两回事。事实上,查理和我,我们当年想买那家银行,是在——
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, well. It would probably be the most asinine, you know, act that Congress has ever performed. One time in Indiana back in the 1890s, I think they passed a bill — I know it was introduced — you can look it up on a search engine. They passed a bill to change the value of pi, the mathematical term pi, to an even 3 — (laughter) — because they said it would be easier for the school children to work with. Well, that's the only bill I can think of that would give competition to a refusal to raise the debt ceiling. I mean, it's extraordinary. I mean, it really is extraordinary that with our deficit running, you know, well over $100 billion a month, and all kinds of items that can't be changed — I mean, there's — having a debt ceiling to start with is a mistake. I mean, it doesn't — the United States of 2011 has a different debt capacity than the United States of 1911, and we're always — it's going to be a growing country, and we're going to have a growing debt capacity. That doesn't mean I think it's a great idea at all to have debt growing, as a percentage of GDP. But this — the debt ceiling's on — so that these games get played and all the time that gets wasted and everything, and, you know, the amount of — number of — silly statements that you hear. It just seems such a waste of time for a country that's got a lot of things to do. But in the end, they won't, in my view — there's no chance that they don't increase the debt ceiling and I would love to see them — well, I'd love to see them eliminate the idea, because it results in these periodic kind of stalemate operations where everybody uses it for posturing purposes and everything of the sort. The United States is not going to have a debt crisis of any kind as long as we keep issuing our notes in our own currency. You know, the difference between being able to borrow in your own currency and having to borrow in another currency is night and day. The only thing we have to worry about is the printing press and inflation. And if you're a member of the euro, European Monetary Union, you have to worry about — you can't print money. You can go and get your co-members to try and help you out. But giving up the right to issue debt in your own currency is a huge step. And the United States has not done it. I don't know whether we've ever issued U.S. bonds in any other currency but we certainly haven't made a habit of it. And the Japanese, incidentally, which have a very ratio of debt-to-GDP, also have consistently borrowed in their own currency. And believe me, when it's time to pay somebody back, and you have a choice of paying — and you're forced to pay somebody else's currency versus paying in your own — it's entirely a different proposition. As a matter of fact, Charlie and I, we were trying to buy that bank back in —
查理·芒格芝加哥。
CHARLIE MUNGERChicago.
沃伦·巴菲特对,60 年代末在芝加哥,那时正值钱紧得很。那时候的“钱紧”跟今天不是一个概念。我是说,那时的钱紧就是一分钱都没有。有人——我们想买那家银行,他们要——我们唯一能找到钱的地方,我想,是在科威特,筹科威特第纳尔,对吧?
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, in Chicago in the late 1960s, and this was a time of really tight money. And tight money was different then than tight money is today. I mean, tight money meant no money. And somebody — we wanted to buy this bank, and they wanted — the only place we could find some money, I think, was in Kuwait in dinars, wasn't it?
查理·芒格科威特第纳尔。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERKuwaiti dinars. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特我当时心里就想,查理也同意,等我们将来要还钱的时候,天知道他们会把第纳尔定成什么价。这件事我们几乎控制不了。所以我们决定不借第纳尔,尽管回过头看,我其实有点后悔没买下那家银行。查理,你有什么要补充的吗?
WARREN BUFFETTAnd I thought to myself, and Charlie concurred, who the hell knew what they were going to say the value of the dinar was when we went to pay it back. It was not something over which we had a lot of control. So we decided not to borrow the money in dinars even though I kind of wish we'd bought the bank. Charlie, do you have anything to say on that?
查理·芒格没有。(笑声)我确实觉得——我确实觉得——你知道,我记得曾经有过一个时代,我们有两党一致的外交政策等等,我很怀念那个时代。就是马歇尔计划那会儿,那时做了很多了不起的、建设性的事情,而且是慷慨之举。如今,在我看来,两党像是在比赛,看谁更蠢——(笑声)——而且还不断超越对方。(笑声与掌声)
CHARLIE MUNGERNo. (Laughter) I do think — I do think — you know, I remember an era when we had a bipartisan foreign policy and all that, and I liked that era. And that was the Marshall Plan, and a lot of wonderful constructive things were done, and they were generous things. Now, it seems to me that both parties are trying to compete to see who can be the most stupid — (laughter) — and they keep topping one another. (Laughter and applause)
沃伦·巴菲特你们看得出来,查理是个一向如实申报所得税的人。(笑声)他没什么可担心的。
WARREN BUFFETTYou can tell Charlie is a fellow who has always filed an accurate income tax form. (Laughter) He's not worried.
核电"重要"且"安全"
Nuclear power is "important" and "safe"
沃伦·巴菲特第 7 个问题。
WARREN BUFFETTNumber 7.
现场股东下午好,巴菲特先生和芒格先生。我是约翰·戈里(音),来自爱荷华州爱荷华城,是中美能源的一位满意客户。巴菲特先生,大约在 2004 年,您告诉我们,您曾十分重视限制伯克希尔在巨灾风险上的敞口,以确保单次灾难不会击垮伯克希尔。如今,中美能源正在寻求批准,在爱荷华州东部建造一座核电站。与此同时,另一家公用事业公司,东京电力公司,正面临索赔,美林估计其赔偿金额将超过 12 万亿日元,即 1400 亿美元,用以补偿流离失所的居民、企业以及无法生产的农户。您认为,中美能源从这座核电站可能获得的债券式回报,是否足以证明它给伯克希尔带来的巨灾风险是合理的?
AUDIENCE MEMBERGood afternoon, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. I'm John Gorrie (PH) from Iowa City, Iowa, where I'm a happy customer of MidAmerican Energy. Around 2004, Mr. Buffett, you told us of a great attention you had given to limiting Berkshire's exposure to mega-catastrophes so that one could not break Berkshire. Today, MidAmerican Energy is seeking approval to build a nuclear power plant in eastern Iowa. At the same time, another utility company, Tokyo Electric and Power, faces claims that Merrill Lynch has estimated as exceeding 12 trillion yen, or $140 billion, to compensate residences and businesses that have been displaced and farmers that cannot produce. Do you believe that the bond-like return that MidAmerican Energy might receive from a nuclear power plant can justify the mega-catastrophe risk that it would pose to Berkshire?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我不认为它会造成——我不了解具体细节,格雷格·阿贝尔能比我讲得更清楚,但我不认为存在你说的那种风险敞口。我认为核电在解决世界能源问题上是相当重要的一环——这是着眼于极长远未来的事,因为你不可能很快改变现有的装机容量。正如你们所知,法国的核电占比非常高。实际上,美国 20% 的电力都来自核电。我自己用的电可能有一部分就来自——我们在卡尔霍恩堡有一个核设施——不是我们,是奥马哈公共电力区有一个核设施,我本人还进去过。但我觉得核电很重要,也觉得它安全。我认为——我知道——由于民众对日本东京电力事件的反应,核电在美国在未来一段时间内——可能是相当长的一段时间内——都不会有什么发展。但这并没有改变我的观点,即继续发展核电是明智的,不仅在美国,在全世界也是如此。我想有些人误解了我在接受采访时说的话,当时我说核电发展会遭遇重大挫折,那仅仅是因为公众对日本事件的本能反应。但这并没有改变我的观点:核电对这个国家和世界的未来至关重要。查理?(掌声)
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, I don't think it does pose — I don't know the details of it, and Greg Abel can speak to it better than I can, but I don't think there's anything like the exposure that you refer to. I think nuclear power is an important part of the world's equation, really, in dealing with its problems on — it's very long term because you're not going to change the installed base in any hurry. And as you know, France has a very high percentage of nuclear power. And, actually, 20 percent of the electricity generated in the United States comes from nuclear power. I probably am getting some of mine from — we have — at Fort Calhoun, we have a nuclear facility — not we, but Omaha Public Power District has a nuclear facility I've actually been in. But I think nuclear power is important, and I think it's safe. I think that — I know — I don't think nuclear power is going to go any place in the United States for a while — maybe quite a while — because of the reaction to what happened in Tokyo — with Tokyo Electric Power. But that doesn't change my view as to the advisability of continuing to develop nuclear power, not only in the United States, but around the world. I think some people misinterpreted what I said when I was interviewed, when I said that I thought it would have a major setback in its development, just because of the popular reaction to what happened in Japan. But that does not change my view that nuclear power is important for the future of this country and the world. Charlie? (Applause)
查理·芒格是的,我们不能畏首畏尾到,因为一件事有极小概率对旗下某家子公司造成重大打击,就认为那是我们所无法承受的。在管理这家公司的时候,我们必须怀有适度的、合理的勇气。
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, we can't be so risk averse that things that have a very tiny chance of making a big dent in one subsidiary are unendurable for us. We have to have a certain reasonable amount of courage in operating this company.
沃伦·巴菲特我们运营着油气管道——你可以去想象各种最坏的情形。我们必须运输有毒物质。法律要求我们通过铁路来运输这些物质,你也知道,你可以设想一切都不凑巧的情形:错误的地点、错误的时间、错误的一切。但在我看来,我们所承担的风险,从未有哪一个会威胁到公司的根基。我是说,这是我时刻在考虑的问题。我把自己视为伯克希尔的首席风险官,而且在我看来,这绝对不是可以交给某个委员会去定夺的事。所以,我一直在思考——无论思考的是衍生品头寸、杠杆,还是核电站或是其他任何东西——我是说,我们没在做任何事,据我所知——哪怕我穷尽想象力——会让我因为担忧伯克希尔的安危而彻夜难眠。
WARREN BUFFETTWe have pipelines — we have gas pipe — you can dream of all kinds of worst-case situations. We have to carry toxic materials. We're required by law to carry those on the railroad, and, you know, you can picture the wrong place, the wrong time, the wrong everything. But we are not bearing any risks, in my view, ever, that threaten the enterprise. I mean, that is one thing I think about all the time. I regard myself as the Chief Risk Officer of Berkshire, and that is not something to be delegated to a committee, in my view, at all. So I think about — whether I think about derivative positions, whether I think about leverage, whether I'm thinking about nuclear power plants or anything, I mean, we are not doing anything that I know of that — pressing my imagination as far as I can — threatens me losing a night's sleep over Berkshire's well-being.
查理·芒格而且我认为你大可以放心,在爱荷华州新建的任何核电站,都肯定要比我们已有的那些安全得多。我们是在实践中不断吸取教训的。(掌声)
CHARLIE MUNGERAnd I think you'd also count on any new nuclear plant built in Iowa will be a hell of a lot safer than the ones we already have. We are learning as we go along here. (Applause)
沃伦·巴菲特没错。显然,在美国,煤矿事故致死的人数,远比任何与核能相关的事故——而它还为 3.09 亿人口提供了 20% 的电力——造成的伤亡要多得多。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Obviously, more people — more people have lost their lives, by far, in coal mine accidents, you know, than ever in the United States — have suffered no losses from anything involving nuclear — with it producing 20 percent of the electricity used by 309 million people.
查理·芒格而且,如果一场海啸能冲到爱荷华州,那得是一场惊天动地的海啸。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERAnd if a tsunami gets to Iowa, it will a hell of a tsunami. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特对。我们的铁路也好不到哪去。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. And our railroad won't do so well, either. (Laughter)
慈善项目成了压力集团的牺牲品
Charity program fell victim to pressure groups
沃伦·巴菲特安德鲁?
WARREN BUFFETTAndrew?
安德鲁·罗斯·索金这个问题来自伊利诺伊州斯普林菲尔德的玛丽和吉姆·博蒙特(音)。他们是伯克希尔的股东,从 1971 年起就一直持有。我还得提一下,我们收到了好几位长期股东类似的问题。这封信写道:“既然伯克希尔现在现金头寸很大,而且您一直在鼓励人们捐钱给有价值的事业,伯克希尔会不会考虑恢复股东指定捐款的慈善项目?当年有这个项目时,我们多年来能资助很多本地学校和慈善机构。”
ANDREW ROSS SORKINThis question comes from Mary and Jim Beaumont (PH) from Springfield, Illinois. They've been Berkshire shareholders since 1971, and I should note that we received several questions from some long-term shareholders along these lines, and this one reads: "Would Berkshire ever consider reinstating its shareholder-directed charitable giving program now that you have a big cash position and are urging people to give away their wealth to worthy causes? "When you had that program, we were able to support many local schools and charities over the years."
沃伦·巴菲特是啊,我很喜欢那个项目,我们搞了大概 20 年吧。查理也喜欢。很多股东也喜欢。有意思的是,这是一种节税的方式,让股东把钱捐给他们自己选的任何机构,只要是个 501(c)(3) 组织就行,每人最多选三家。有些家庭,比方说,就把它当教育工具。他们收到我们寄去的表格,就把孩子们聚到餐桌旁,讨论慈善,聊为什么选这些机构。有两件事——嗯,其中一件特别有意思:没有别人学这招。我是说,其他美国公司根本不在乎让股东来决定捐款方向。它们更乐意让 CEO 来主导捐款。所以这模式没流行起来,尽管我们宣传得挺多。我们总会有那么一小撮人反弹,因为他们不喜欢股东选的那些慈善机构。毕竟,支票上写的是伯克希尔的名字。股东会告诉我们,每股捐 20 美元,比如说——他们持有 10 股,所以能指定 200 美元——他们会说,我们这 200 美元想捐给更多——教堂和犹太会堂,实际上排第一——但还有学校,各种东西都有。我们总会收到一些信,说伯克希尔给某某组织捐了钱,比如加州计划生育协会,然后有人说:“好吧,我们不去买喜诗糖果了,因为伯克希尔支持加州的计划生育协会。”有时候我会回信,告诉他们,喜诗买杏仁、牛奶之类的东西时,我们不会去查供应商的慈善偏好,但这从来也没闹出多大动静。后来我们买了 Pampered Chef,情况就不一样了,因为 Pampered Chef 是通过 5 万多个独立承包商运作的。这些人基本都是女性,她们有些人是为了补贴收入——我们办公室至少有一个——有个女员工卖 Pampered Chef 产品——有时候这是主要收入来源——这 5 万人都是独立承包商,结果有人发起了一场运动,说因为伯克希尔·哈撒韦捐钱,可能主要是支持选择权组织,而且也照着指示——我们也有其他人捐给支持生命权组织。我是说,这反映的是股东的观点,不是伯克希尔管理层的意思——但他们要抵制这些独立承包商。这些人靠这份收入过日子,跟伯克希尔的政策毫无关系,结果却因为这事影响生计,在某些城市还变成了电台运动,有些地方开始有人干扰我们 Pampered Chef 顾问们办的聚会。这伤害了一大群无辜的人,他们跟伯克希尔的政策无关,跟伯克希尔也无关。那时候,我们很不情愿地决定终止这个项目。我倒不介意丢点喜诗糖果的生意,或者别的事。但一旦开始影响个人——这些人大部分不是高收入人群——我们做的事断了他们的生计,那就不行了——我越来越清楚,继续下去不公平,所以不情愿地停了。我觉得挺可惜的。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, I love that program, which we had for, maybe, 20 or so years. Charlie loved it. A lot of the shareholders loved it. And it was interesting because it was a tax-efficient way to let shareholders give away some money to whatever they chose, as long as it was a 501(c)(3), and they could pick up to three charities. And some families, for example, used it as a learning device. When they would get the form from us, they'd get their kids around the table and they'd talk about philanthropy and why they were choosing what they did. Two things — well, one thing that was very interesting about it is nobody else copied it. I mean, the rest of corporate America was not interested in having their shareholders direct contributions. They were much more interested in having the CEO direct contributions. So it did not catch on, despite a fair amount of publicity. We always had a small backlash of sorts from people who didn't like the charities that our shareholders were choosing. So Berkshire's name was on the check. The shareholders would tell us we want $20 a share, let's say — and they own ten shares, so they can direct $200 — they'd say, we want our $200 to go to more —churches and synagogues, actually, were number one — but there were schools and there were all kinds of things. And we would always get some letters where Berkshire would be contributing to, say, Planned Parenthood of California, and people would say, "Well, we're not going to buy See's Candy because Berkshire is supporting Planned Parenthood in California." And sometimes I would write the people a letter and tell them that when See's bought almonds or milk or anything like that we didn't get into the charitable preferences of the person supplying us, but it never really amounted to anything. Then we bought the Pampered Chef, and that was a different situation because with the Pampered Chef we operated through 50,000-plus independent contractors. These are women, largely, women, who sometimes, to supplement their income — we have at least one in the office that — a woman that sells Pampered Chef products — sometimes as a main source of income — were — these 50,000 were independent contractors, and a campaign developed where people said that because Berkshire Hathaway gives money, probably primarily to pro-choice organizations, and that was at the direction — we had other people giving them to pro-life organizations. I mean, these reflected the views of our shareholders, not of Berkshire management — but that they were going to boycott these independent contractors. And these were people who depended on the income, who had nothing to do with Berkshire's policies, and they were being hurt, in terms of their livelihood, and in some cities it became a radio campaign, and in some cities people regularly started interfering with the parties arranged for our Pampered Chef consultants. And it was hurting a whole lot of innocent people who had nothing to do with Berkshire's policies, who had nothing to do with Berkshire. And at that time, reluctantly, we decided to end the program. I did not — I didn't mind at all losing some See's Candy business or whatever to some people. But when we start affecting individuals — most of these are not high-income individuals — and we're cutting off their livelihood because of something Berkshire is doing, it became — it just became apparent to me that it was unfair to continue it, and reluctantly, we stopped it, and I think it's too bad. Charlie?
查理·芒格我们不希望母公司卷入那些关于当代社会问题的无谓争吵。
CHARLIE MUNGERWe don't want the parent company involved in distracting arguments about the social issues of the times.
沃伦·巴菲特是啊,我们肯定不想让它影响到——
WARREN BUFFETTWell, we certainly don't want it where it affects —
查理·芒格嗯。
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah.
沃伦·巴菲特——那些基本上只是旁观的人,多年来一直指望我们合作的人。这实际上影响了成千上万人的收入,主要是女性,集中在全国某些社区。好了。
WARREN BUFFETT— people who are just bystanders, basically, who have counted on us over the years to work with them. And it was literally affecting the income of thousands, primarily women, concentrated in certain communities around the country. OK.
查理·芒格每年都有大量伯克希尔股票被捐出去。我们并没有完全失去慈善的流动。
CHARLIE MUNGERA lot of stock — Berkshire stock — is given away every year. It isn't like we've lost the flow of charity totally.
沃伦·巴菲特不,捐出去的数额巨大。部分原因是,查理和我在 50 年代和 60 年代就开始组织合伙公司,现在不少合伙人已经 80 多岁了,有些人捐出了异常多的钱。你之前有个问题,比如迪克·霍兰德,迪克·霍兰德——我认为具体数字是有记录的——但他多年来捐出了巨额资金,而且还在继续。我们还有几十个这样的人,我想他们最终会把自己从伯克希尔赚到的钱捐出 90% 或更多。
WARREN BUFFETTNo, a huge amount is given away. Partly that’s because Charlie and I started our partnerships back in the 50s and 60s, and we've got a number of partners that are now in their 80s, and some of them have given away some exceptional amounts of money. You had a question earlier from Dick Holland, for example, and Dick Holland — I think it's a matter of record as to exact numbers — but he's given away huge amounts of money over the years and continues to. And we've got dozens like that that I would say are going to end up giving back 90 percent or more of all the money they've made in Berkshire.
为什么我们讨厌预测
Why we hate projections
沃伦·巴菲特好。(掌声)第 8 个问题。
WARREN BUFFETTOK. (Applause) Number 8.
现场股东塔尼娅·拉内娃(音),来自马萨诸塞州波士顿。当您考虑长期现金流时,您会尝试预测增长吗?还是只考虑确定性?如果是一家像可口可乐或北伯灵顿这样的坚不可摧的公司,您会尝试估算增长吗?
AUDIENCE MEMBERTanya Laneva (PH), Boston, Massachusetts. When you think about long-term cash flows, do you try to forecast growth? Or do you just think about certainty? If you have an indestructible company like Coca-Cola or Burlington Northern, do you try to estimate growth?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我们觉得——你问完了吗?
WARREN BUFFETTWell, we think — are you finished on that?
现场股东是的,谢谢。
AUDIENCE MEMBERYes, thank you.
沃伦·巴菲特增长是投资等式中的一部分,而且我们显然喜欢能带来盈利的增长。所以我们很愿意想办法,比如说,把喜诗糖果拓展到新的地理区域,尝试各种方式。我的意思是,如果我们能给喜诗找到增长空间,很可能会非常非常赚钱。就像可口可乐,业务遍及 200 个国家,他们成功推行这一策略已经 125 年了。有些产品就是比其他产品更容易跨区域扩张。但当我们审视一家企业并展望未来时,如果我们看到增长前景,而且是那种对增量资本能产生高回报的增长,我们当然很喜欢,但我们也不会仅仅因为一家公司增长很慢或没有增长就将其排除,只要价格相对其盈利能力有足够的吸引力。你知道,像润滑油这类产品,比如路博润,长期来看总归会有一些增长,但不会是爆发式增长。我们会不会希望它的销量每年增长 10% 之类的事情?当然希望。但那是不会发生的。因此,增长是每个投资决策都要考虑的因素,因为我们确实在展望未来,看未来的盈利能力,也看未来的资本需求。对于我们要进入的任何生意,我们都会反复思考它是否可能实现盈利增长,有时我们判断对了,有时错了。但我们不会把那些增长非常缓慢或没有增长潜力的公司排除在外。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTWe — growth is part of the investment equation, and obviously, we love profitable growth. So we would love to figure out a way to, say, take a See's Candy, to move it geographically into new areas, all kinds of things. I mean, if we could find areas for growth with See's, it would be likely to be very, very profitable. If Coca-Cola, which is in 200 countries, I mean they have pursued that policy successfully now for 125 years. And some products travel way better than others. But when we look at a business and we're looking out in the future, obviously, if we see growth in that picture and it's growth which is — produces a high return on incremental capital involved, we love it, but we do not rule out companies where we think there will be little or no growth, if the price is attractive relative to the earning power. You know, there will be some growth, over time, in something like lubricants, you know, at Lubrizol, but it won't be dramatic growth. Would we love it if it, you know, if it were going to grow ten percent a year in units or something of the sort? Sure. But that's not going to happen. So it's a factor in every investment decision because we're really looking out to the future as to future earning power, but also future capital requirements. And we think plenty about whether any business we go into is likely to grow profitably, and sometimes we're right and sometimes we're wrong. But we don't rule out companies that have very slow growth or no-growth possibilities. Charlie?
查理·芒格是啊,有意思的是,在我们国家,商学院教学生去做那些很久以后的预测,还给电脑编程把这些预测算出来,然后拿来做商业决策,等等等等。我一直认为这类预测弊大于利。据我所知,沃伦从来没自己做过一份,而投资银行家做的预测,我们通常直接扔到一边,看都不看。
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, well, the interesting thing is that in our country, the business schools teach people to make these projections way in the future, and they program these computers to grind these projections out. And then they use them in their business decision making, et cetera, et cetera. I've always regarded those projections as doing more harm than good. And Warren has never prepared one that I know of, and where an investment banker prepares one, we tend to throw them aside without reading them.
沃伦·巴菲特准确地说,我们是把它倒过来。
WARREN BUFFETTWe them upside down, actually.
查理·芒格什么?
CHARLIE MUNGERWhat?
沃伦·巴菲特我们是把它倒过来放。
WARREN BUFFETTWe turn them upside down.
查理·芒格对,对。我觉得,当你给电脑编程去对未来很长一段时间做预测时,就会引入一种巨大的虚假精确感。我们自己脑子里倒是时刻都在做着粗略的预测。
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, yeah. And I think an enormous false precision gets into things when you program computers to make forward projections for a long period of time. We make rough projections in our head all the time.
沃伦·巴菲特没错。
WARREN BUFFETTSure.
查理·芒格而我们不做任何这类正式的预测,因为这些白纸黑字、从电脑里出来的东西,会让有些人觉得它们一定很重要。我确实觉得它们弊大于利。
CHARLIE MUNGERAnd we don't do any of those formal projections, because the fact that they're there on paper and came out of a computer makes some people think they must be significant. I really think they do more damage than they do good.
沃伦·巴菲特我们买斯科特-费泽那会儿,大概是在 1985 年,第一波士顿把它向 30 多家潜在买家兜售过,却从没想起联系我们。在向大约 30 家兜售完没有结果后,斯科特-费泽最终着手跟一个员工持股计划谈交易,这之前另一笔交易告吹了,具体细节我记不清了。我在报纸上看到了这件事,就给拉尔夫·谢写了封信。我以前没见过他,也从没跟这人聊过。但我还是写了封信。我想就赌 21 美分的邮票钱吧,或者管它当时头等邮资是多少,我在信里说:“我们出 60 美元一股。你要觉得行,我星期天去芝加哥跟你见面;要觉得不行,把信撕了就行。”就这样,拉尔夫见了我的面,我们谈成了,按 60 美元一股还是多少的价付了款。查理和我回去签协议的时候,第一波士顿的人也在场,他有点尴尬,毕竟当初他们找买家的时候,压根没联系我们。但他手里自然攥着一份合同,规定要收几百万美元的佣金,尽管他根本没费心联系过我们,而交易是我们自己谈成的。于是,趁着收那几百万美元的兴奋劲,他对查理说:“那个,我们给斯科特-费泽准备了一本材料。既然你们都付了我们几百万美元了,到现在还没拿到什么东西,”他说,“可能你们会想要这本材料。”查理用他一贯得体的方式说,我给你 200 万美元,条件是别让我看见那本材料。(笑声)我应该提一下,说起这个——在路博润的交易上,戴夫·索科尔和詹姆斯·汉布里克见了面,我记得是 1 月 25 号还是哪一天——路博润当时已经公开发布了到 2013 年的预测。戴夫告诉我,詹姆斯还给了他一些预测,我猜是到 2015 年还是什么时候,问我要不要看。我跟他说不看。我的意思是,我不想看别人的预测。我这辈子就没见过投资银行家做出来的预测不是盈利节节攀升的,相信我,现实中的盈利可不会一直往上涨。所以,这不过是句老话:别问理发师你需不需要理发。你千万不要去问一个投资银行家,他正在兜售的这家公司五年后盈利会怎样。所以,我根本不理会那类东西。但话说回来,正如查理所说,我们看一家企业的时候,脑子里显然也在做预测。我的意思是,看任何一家我们要买下的公司,或任何一只我们要买入的股票,我们脑子里会有个模型:这家公司未来若干年大概会是个什么样子。同时我们脑子里也还有个模型:我们可能会偏得有多离谱。有些事我们可能错得完全离谱,另一些事则很可能在相当窄的误差范围内。这些推演都在进行着,但我们肯定不会去听任何其他人的预测。
WARREN BUFFETTWhen we bought Scott Fetzer, which was back in about 1985, it had been shopped by First Boston to more than 30 parties. They never got around to calling us. So after shopping it to about 30 parties, Scott Fetzer, finally, was working on a deal with an ESOP after something else had fallen through, I forget the exact details. And I sent a letter to Ralph Schey. I’d read about it in the paper. I’d never met him, never talked to the guy. But I sent him a letter. I figured I'd gamble 21-cents, or whatever the first class rate was then, and I said, "We'll pay $60 a share. If you like the idea, I'll meet you in Chicago Sunday, and if you don't like the idea tear up the letter." So that took place and Ralph met me, and we made the deal, and we paid the $60 a share or whatever it was. And Charlie and I went back to sign up the deal, and the follow from First Boston was there, and he was a little abashed since he had not sent us — contacted us at all — when they were looking for something. But naturally he had a contract that called for a few million dollars of commission even though he'd not bothered to ever contact us and we made the deal by ourselves. So, in a moment of exuberance while he was collecting his few million dollars, he said to Charlie, he said, "Well, we prepared this book in connection with Scott Fetzer, and since you're paying us a couple million dollars and have gotten nothing so far," he said, "maybe you would like to have this book." And Charlie, with his usual tact, said I'll pay you $2 million if you don't show me the book. (Laughter) And I should mention, this will — in connection with Lubrizol, Dave Sokol met James Hambrick, I think on whatever it was, January 25, or whatever the date, and he — Lubrizol had already made projections publicly out to 2013. And Dave told me that they had — they — that James had also given him some projections, I guess out to 2015 or something, and did I want to see them? And I told him no. I mean, I don't want to look at the other follow's projections. I've never seen a projection from an investment banker that didn't show the earnings going up over time, and believe me, the earnings don't always go up over time. So, it's just — you know, it's the old story: don't ask the barber whether you need a haircut, you know. You do not want to ask an investment banker what he thinks the earnings are going to be in five years of something he's trying to sell. So I pay no attention to that sort of thing. But we do, as Charlie says, we are doing projections in our head, obviously, when we look at a business. I mean, when we look at any company to buy, or any stock to buy, we are thinking in our mind, we've got a model in our mind, of what that place is likely to look like over some period of years. And then we also have some model in our mind of how far off we can be. I mean there's some things we can be way off on, there's other things we're likely to be in a fairly narrow range on. So all that is taking place, but we sure don't want to listen to anybody else's projections.
查理·芒格在座各位即将进商学院、或者正在读商学院的,我建议你们学会按我们的方式去做,但至少在你毕业之前,得装作按他们的方式做。(笑声和掌声)
CHARLIE MUNGERThose of you about to enter business school, or who are there, I recommend you learn to do it our way, but at least until you're out of school you have to pretend to do it their way. (Laughter and applause)
巴菲特持有少量股票和大量债券
Buffett owns a few stocks and lots of bonds
沃伦·巴菲特好的。卡罗尔?
WARREN BUFFETTOK. Carol?
卡罗尔·卢米斯伯克希尔向美国证券交易委员会提交的季度 13F 文件中,有三只股票只记录在表格上登记为“沃伦·E·巴菲特”的实体名下,而不是伯克希尔的子公司。请澄清一下这个问题:这些持仓是你在伯克希尔之外的个人投资,还是属于伯克希尔·哈撒韦?
CAROL LOOMISOn Berkshire's quarterly 13F filings at the SEC, three stocks are held only by the entity recorded on the form as Warren E. Buffett, and not by a Berkshire subsidiary company. Please clear up some confusion on this matter. Are these holdings your own personal investments outside of Berkshire, or do they belong to Berkshire Hathaway?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,那你得告诉我是哪三只。
WARREN BUFFETTWell, you’ll have to tell me what the names are.
卡罗尔·卢米斯很遗憾,提问人没列出来。但我想,这三只就是——上面写着沃伦·E·巴菲特是所有人的那三只。
CAROL LOOMISUnfortunately, the questioner didn't include those. But these are the three, I think, that are — that say Warren E. Buffett is the owner.
沃伦·巴菲特对。嗯,那些表格是马克·汉伯格准备的。马克,你有没有麦克风可以——可以——
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Well, Marc Hamburg prepares those forms. Marc, do you have a microphone that you can — you could —
马克·汉堡我想——
MARC HAMBURGI think —
沃伦·巴菲特好,请说。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Go ahead.
马克·汉堡嗯,那些是某些员工福利计划持有的证券,所以——沃伦被指定到那些计划里,但并不意味着——它们不是沃伦拥有的,也没有迹象表明是沃伦拥有的。沃伦出现在文件中,是因为他被视为伯克希尔的控股股东。所以上面列出的每只证券都显示沃伦是股东之一。
MARC HAMBURGWell, those are securities that are owned by certain employee benefit plans and so that — Warren is directed into those plans, but it doesn't — they're not owned by Warren, or there's no indication that they're owned by Warren. Warren is part of the filing because he's considered to be a controlling shareholder of Berkshire. So every security listed on there shows Warren as one of the — one of the owners.
沃伦·巴菲特对。我们是不是把养老金计划持有的股票也列上去了?
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Do we file stocks owned by pension plans?
马克·汉堡只要你指定——指定了——
MARC HAMBURGTo the extent that you direct — have directed —
沃伦·巴菲特我明白了,对。
WARREN BUFFETTI got you, yeah.
马克·汉堡没错。
MARC HAMBURGRight.
沃伦·巴菲特对。不,我不认为——嗯,马克比我更懂规则。我自己持有的证券非常非常少。我确实把时间花在想伯克希尔的事,所以我手里有很多我一再劝你们别买的证券——政府债券——但那不是因为它是好投资。只是找个地方放点钱,忘了它,我专心忙伯克希尔。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah. No, I don't — I don't think I — well, Marc knows the rules on it better than I do. I own very, very few securities. I really spend my time thinking about Berkshire, so I've got a lot of the very security I've been telling you not to buy, which is government bonds, but that's not because it's a good investment. It's a place to have some money and forget about it, and I'll work on Berkshire.
评估美国以外的公司
Evaluating a company outside the U.S.
沃伦·巴菲特第 9 区。
WARREN BUFFETTArea 9.
现场股东巴菲特先生、芒格先生,很荣幸也很高兴。我叫本·安德森,来自洛杉矶。当你们看中国投资时,那里的商业文化跟美国很不同,成功做法也大有不同,你们在投资那家公司时找什么特征?跟伯克希尔的一般原则有区别吗?
AUDIENCE MEMBERMr. Buffett, Mr. Munger, it's an honor and a pleasure. My name is Ben Anderson (PH), I’m from Los Angeles. When you're looking at an investment in China, where the business culture is a lot different than it is here in the U.S., and successful business practices are, again, very different than they are here, what are the characteristics you look for when placing investment in that company, and is that any different than the general principles at Berkshire?
沃伦·巴菲特我们遵循同样的原则,但我们认识到,离开美国后,我们对税法、习俗、对股东的态度了解得不如在美国多。我们会根据情况权衡这种不确定性。我买中石油股票时——大概是 2003 年前后——按任何对储量、炼油能力、现金流或其他指标的计算,它都极其便宜。同时,俄罗斯的尤科斯也非常便宜,两家都是巨头。我不是地缘政治专家或什么的,但我决定买中石油比买尤科斯更安心。那么,我买中石油时是否像买同等规模的国内公司一样安心?不,因为我不太了解——当时不了解,现在也不了解——中国税法的全部细节和政策可能是什么。但读中石油年报时,我印象相当不错——相当深刻。首先,他们说要拿出 45%——我记得是这样——的盈利作为股息。这比任何美国石油公司告诉我的都多。所以我认为这是个加分项,表明了一种我认为会兑现的意图——它确实兑现了。所以,我们会为自己的理解不足留出余地,就像在美国可能对某些关键因素留余地一样。但评估生意价值、寻找我们对其能力和诚信都有信心的管理层、再找到有吸引力的买入价格——这些原则无论我们在世界哪里投资都适用。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTWe follow the same principles, but we recognize that we know less about tax laws, about customs, about attitudes towards shareholders, any time we get outside the United States, than we know in the United States. Now, to varying degrees, we weigh in that uncertainty. At the time I bought PetroChina stock, which, I don't know, was probably 2003 or thereabouts, it was extraordinarily cheap, in relation to any calculation of reserves or refining capacity or cash flow or you name it. And at the same time, Yukos in Russia was similarly very, very cheap, and they were both huge. And I'm no geopolitical expert or anything of the sort, but I decided I was more comfortable buying PetroChina than I was buying Yukos. Now, was I as comfortable buying PetroChina as I would have been buying, you know, some domestic company of similar size? No, because I don't know as much — I didn't know then, and I don't know as much now, about all the intricacies of Chinese tax law and what the policies might be. But I was fairly impressed — quite impressed — when I read the report of PetroChina. For one thing, they said they were going to pay out 45 percent of — as I remember — 45 percent of their earnings in dividends. That's more than any company — oil company — in the United States would tell me. So I regarded it as a plus and an indication of intent that I thought would be fulfilled, and it has been fulfilled. So we do make allowances for our lack of understanding, as well as we might in the United States, various key factors. But the basic principles of trying to value the business, trying to find managements in which we have confidence, in both their ability and integrity, and then finding attractive purchase price, those principles apply wherever in the world we would be investing. Charlie?
查理·芒格嗯,我们在中国的投资很少,想从我们这里得出一般性教训很难。这让我想起有次一位教授暑假去西部,回来后对同事说,“我学到了印第安人总是排成单列走。” 他们问,“你怎么得出的?” 他说,“我看到一个印第安人,他就是那么走的。”(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, we make so few investments in China that trying to draw general lessons from us would be hard. It reminds me of the time a professor went west for the summer and came back to his faculty and he said, “I've learned that Indians always walk single file.” And they said, “How did you figure that out?” And he said, “I saw one and he did.” (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特我们怎么从那儿扯到中国的?(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTHow did we get from there to China? (Laughter)
查理·芒格嗯,我们在中国只有少数几笔投资。就像一个印第安人。你没法从那里得出一般性教训。
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, we only had a couple of things in China. They're like the one Indian. You can't draw general lessons from them.
沃伦·巴菲特但我们乐意明天就去看。我是说,显然,如果我们接到某个——那可能是笔规模可观的投资,因为我们——只看几亿美元级别的东西没什么意义——但你知道,我喜欢看各种想法。我是说,听那些我不熟悉的公司或生意,是个迷人的游戏。现在问题是,由于规模变大,可选的天地小多了。但我们欢迎来自很多国家的电话。有些国家太小,不会有能影响伯克希尔体量的生意,所以那些被排除在名单之外,但——
WARREN BUFFETTBut we're willing to look tomorrow. I mean, obviously, if we had a call on some — that could be a significant size investment because we — it just doesn't make any sense for us to look at things we can just put a couple of hundred million dollars in — but we, you know, I love the idea of looking at various ideas. I mean, I find it a fascinating game to hear about companies or businesses that are new to me. And the problem now is that the universe has gotten much smaller because of our size. But we welcome a call from a lot of countries. There's some countries that are just too small. They're not going to have businesses that could move the needle at a place like Berkshire, and so those are off the list, but —
查理·芒格中国至少有一家私营公司年税后利润超过 30 亿美元。外面有些大家伙。
CHARLIE MUNGERChina has at least one private company that makes over $3 billion a year after taxes. There's some big things out there.
沃伦·巴菲特我过后从他嘴里套出名字,但不想让你听到。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTI'll get the name from him later, but I don't want you to hear. (Laughter)
伯克希尔短期现金的流向
Where Berkshire's short-term cash goes
沃伦·巴菲特贝基?
WARREN BUFFETTBecky?
贝基·奎克这个问题来自阿拉斯加的爱德·施密特(Ed Schmidt)。他在问伯克希尔的现金。他写道:“这笔钱存放在哪里?全部是美国国债还是国库券?如果是这样,当最大的买家美联储在六月份停止购买时会发生什么?所有这些场外资金在哪里?是不是放在两年前我们看到的那张床垫下面?我看不出任何大额资金能存放在不付利息的银行、风险高且利息低的公司债券、或者看起来一天比一天不靠谱的政府债券里。”
BECKY QUICKThis question comes from Ed Schmidt (PH) in Alaska. He's asking about Berkshire's cash. He writes, “Where is that money held? All in Treasury bills or notes? If so, what will happen in June when the biggest buyer, the Fed, quits buying? Where is all that money on the sidelines? Is it under the mattress we saw two years ago? "I don't see how any significant amount of money can be in banks that aren't paying interest, corporate bonds that are risky and not paying much interest, or government bonds that seem less and less sound as each day passes.”
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,他说的绝对没错,眼下短期资金的所有选择都很差劲,但我们不会拿短期资金瞎折腾。所以,2008 年问题暴露之前,我们没持有商业票据。我们没持有货币市场基金。我说没持有,是指也许各个子公司在较小规模上有那么一点,但就我们在伯克希尔层面管理的大资金而言,我们基本只放在国债上。现在从中几乎赚不到任何收益,这让人很恼火,但在伯克希尔,我们绝不会为了多赚 5 个、10 个、20 个还是 30 个基点,就把短期资金挪到其他东西上。它是一个停车位。一个毫无吸引力的停车位,但这是一个我们知道想取车时一定能取回车的停车位。你知道,当我们需要的时候——当然,2008 年 9 月就是个例子。我们早在玛氏/箭牌交易敲定时就承诺投入 65 亿美元,我猜当时大概是夏天,做出那个承诺时我们完全没想到 9 月会发生那样的事——但我们手里有钱。我知道我必须在,应该是 10 月 6 日那天,拿出 65 亿美元,而且,你知道,我必须到场拿出钱来。(笑)我不能拿着一份货币市场基金或一些商业票据之类的东西到场。我必须拿出现金。在持有大额随时可用的现金这件事上,我唯一感到踏实——几乎唯一感到踏实的——就是短期国库券,也正因如此——如果你看我们 3 月 31 日的报表,我想你会看到 380 亿美元,其中绝大多数是短期国库券。查理?
<<<END P 6>>>
WARREN BUFFETTWell, he's certainly right that all of the choices are lousy for short-term money now, but we don't play around with short-term money. So we did not own commercial paper in 2008 before problems occurred. We did not own money market funds. When I say we didn't own them, maybe small amounts at various subsidiaries, but in terms of the big money, which we run out of Berkshire, we basically keep it in Treasurys. And we get paid virtually nothing now for it, and that's irritating, but the last thing in the world we would do at Berkshire is to try and get 5 or 10 or 20 or 30 basis points more by going into some other things with our short-term money. It is a parking place. It's an unattractive parking place, but it's a parking place where we know we'll get our car back when we want it. You know, when we need — certainly the case — in September of 2008, we had committed for some time to put $6.5 billion in Wrigley when the Mars/Wrigley deal occurred, and we certainly didn't contemplate at the time we made that commitment, which was probably in the summer, that the events would take place like they did in September and — but we had the money. I knew I had to show up with 6 1/2 billion dollars — I think it was on October 6 — and, you know, I had to show up. (Laughs) I couldn't show up with a money market fund or some commercial paper or anything of the sort. I had to show up with cash. And the only thing I feel — virtually the only thing I feel good about, in terms of having large amounts of ready cash is Treasury bills, and that's where we've got — if you look at our March 31st statement, I think you'll see 38 billion, and overwhelmingly that will be in Treasurys. Charlie?
查理·芒格嗯,当然,我见过很多人挣扎,他们认为自己一生有责任在短期资金上多赚 10 个基点。我认为,如果你像我们这样玩机会主义游戏,想要突然部署资金,那么试图最大化短期资金回报真的很愚蠢。我们买的一些管道,它们在周六出售,我们必须在周一或什么时候完成交易?
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, of course, I've watched a lot of people struggle who thought it was their duty in life to get an extra 10 basis points on the short-term money. I think it's really stupid to try and maximize returns on short-term money if you’re in an opportunist game the way we are, where we want to suddenly deploy money. Some of those pipelines we bought, they came for sale on Saturday, and we had to close on Monday or something?
沃伦·巴菲特是的。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah.
查理·芒格当我们有那样的突发资金需求时,为什么要用一些可疑的工具瞎搞?
CHARLIE MUNGERWhy fool around with some dubious instrument when we had sudden needs for money like that?
沃伦·巴菲特我们买了一条管道,卖家担心下周会破产。而且需要通过联邦贸易委员会的哈特-斯科特-罗迪诺(Hart-Scott-Rodino)审核,他们急需钱,我们——我记得我写信给联邦贸易委员会说,之后你们叫我做什么都行。你们可以随便查。我们会提供所有你们想要的数据。如果你们叫我们,你知道,解除交易,你们说什么我们就做什么。但这些家伙需要钱,所以我们提前完成了交易。当人们需要钱,而世界其他地方出于某种原因吓坏了的时候,我们能够拿出现金,这让我们做成了好几笔交易。我们不知道——明天会不会发生这种事。我的意思是,如果——你知道,本·伯南克(Ben Bernanke)和帕丽斯·希尔顿(Paris Hilton)之类的人跑去南美洲了——(笑声)——我是说,谁知道会发生什么。我们希望在那一刻,我们的支票能够兑现。所以,我们觉得我们从来不知道明天会发生什么,虽然不会发生那样的事,我想——把这部分从报告的转录中删掉。(笑声)但我们是——当有人来找我们说,我们现在需要一笔交易,我们能做,他们知道我们能做,而且交易规模可以很大。只需要有吸引力就行。
WARREN BUFFETTWe bought one pipeline where the seller was worried about going bankrupt the following week. And there's a Hart-Scott-Rodino clearance required through the FTC, and they needed the money right away, and we — I wrote a letter, as I remember, to the FTC, and I said that we will do whatever you tell us to do later on. You can look at this all you want. We'll give you all the data you want. And if you tell us, you know, to unwind the deal, whatever you tell us, we will do. But these guys need the money, and so we closed it earlier. And our ability to come up with cash when people need it and when the rest of the world is petrified for some reason, has enabled several deals to get done. We don't know whether — that could happen tomorrow. I mean, if — you know, Ben Bernanke runs off to South America with Paris Hilton or something — (laughter) —I mean, who knows what will happen. And we want to be able, at that moment, to have our check clear. So, we figure we never know what tomorrow will bring, although it won't bring that, I want to — leave that off the transcribed part of the report. (Laughter) But we are — when somebody comes to us and they say, we need a deal right now, we can do it, and they know we can do it, and it can be big. It just has to be attractive.
风能需要政府补贴
Wind power needs government subsidies
沃伦·巴菲特好的。第十区。
WARREN BUFFETTOK. Area 10.
现场股东嗨,沃伦。嗨,查理。非常感谢你们抽出时间举办了一场精彩的股东大会。四年前我们宣布要用你的名字给我们的儿子起名,所以很高兴能向你和查理问好。查理,既然伯克希尔买下了西科金融,我们想看看你是否能抽出时间自己举办一次会议?可以任何地点、任何时间。
AUDIENCE MEMBERHi, Warren. Hi, Charlie. Thank you very much for taking the time to have a terrific shareholders meeting. Four years ago we announced that we're naming our son after you, so we're happy to say hi to both you and Charlie. Charlie, since Berkshire bought Wesco, we wanted to see if you can take some time to host a meeting of your own? It can be anywhere, anytime.
查理·芒格我们会这么做的。
CHARLIE MUNGERWe're going to do that.
现场股东太好了。
AUDIENCE MEMBERGreat.
查理·芒格我们不叫它西科会议。我们叫它“与查理共度一个下午”。
CHARLIE MUNGERWe won't call it a Wesco meeting. We'll call it, “An Afternoon with Charlie.”
现场股东太好了。
AUDIENCE MEMBERGreat.
查理·芒格只限铁杆粉丝参加。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERIt's only for hard-core addicts. (Laughter)
现场股东沃伦,中美能源正在风能领域投资超过 10 亿美元。你如何看待风能作为一种可再生能源及其经济性?这种投资规模会继续吗?你期望从风能中获得什么样的回报?
AUDIENCE MEMBERWarren, MidAmerican Energy is investing over a billion dollars in wind power. How do you feel about wind power as a source of renewable energy and its economics? Will this scale of investment continue and what type of returns do you expect to come from wind power?
沃伦·巴菲特是的,风能很棒,但风能只有在刮风时才棒。我记得,在爱荷华州,风大约有 35% 的时间在吹。所以,显然你永远不能指望风能作为你的基本负荷电力。你知道,这是一个切实的限制。另一方面,风能基本上可以说是你能找到的最清洁的能源,除了它不可靠之外。从经济性上看,只有靠联邦政府提供的激励性税收抵免才能说得通,他们已经这样做了相当长一段时间。单凭自身,这项投资根本不能带来足够的资本回报。所以,实际上,是你的政府决定要补贴风能,有这样一个税收抵免。爱荷华州一直是个不错的风能州。整个中部地带都不错——这个国家的中部地区都不错——所以在爱荷华州集中建设大量兆瓦发电能力是合理的,我们现在还有更多在建项目,我认为我们现在在风能方面全国排名第一。所以我们会做更多。你能得到的价格、发电能力的实际使用时间比例等等,都取决于税收抵免。有趣的一点是——伯克希尔的资产之一就是它缴纳很多税。这听起来不怎么样,但在现在这个时代,很多公用事业公司,当你同时享有 100% 折旧(联邦政府刚推行不久,为期很短)和这些风能税收抵免时,它们实际上没有足够的纳税能力来使用这些税收抵免。所以它们的情况和伯克希尔不同,我们缴纳很多税。在过去五年里,我们可能支付了美国所有公司税的 2% 左右,我想核实一下,但我觉得这个数字不算离谱。所以我们有很大的纳税能力。我们可以用它来建设更多的风能项目。我认为我们很可能会继续这样做。这有助于我们的爱荷华客户。因为这些项目很成功,它让我们能够保持电价——还有其他原因——保持电价十多年来完全不变,这在美国电力公司中非常罕见。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, it's terrific, but wind power is terrific, but only when the wind blows. And the wind blows about — as I remember— about 35 percent of the time in Iowa. So you never can count on wind power, obviously, for your base load. And, you know, that is a real limitation. On the other hand, wind power, you know, is basically, I guess, the cleanest energy you can come up with, except for the fact that it can't be relied on. It — the economics only make sense with an incentive credit — tax credit — provided by the federal government, which they've been doing for a considerable period of time. It does not — standing on their own, the investment will not return anything like an adequate return on capital. So there is a tax credit that your government has made a decision that it wants to subsidize, in effect, wind power. And Iowa has been — Iowa is a good wind state. This whole central belt is good and — central part of the country is good — so it's made sense to locate a lot of megawatts of generating capacity in Iowa, and we have more under construction now, and I think we're now, I think, number one in the country in respect to wind power. So we'll be doing more. It is dependent, in terms of the price you can get, the percentage of the time that you’re generating capacities actually get used and everything, it only makes sense with the tax credits. And one thing that is kind of interesting — one of the assets of Berkshire is that it pays a lot of taxes. That doesn't sound like much of an asset, but in these days, a lot of utilities, when you get both a hundred percent depreciation, which has been put in now by the federal government for a short period of time, and you get these sort of tax credits on wind, they really don't have the tax paying capacity to be able to use the tax credits. So they are in a different position than Berkshire, which pays a lot of taxes. We’ve probably paid something like 2 percent of all the corporate taxes in the United States, maybe, over the last five years. I want to check that, but it's not — I don't think that's way off. So we have a lot of tax paying capacity. We can use it to build more wind projects. And I think it's very likely we will continue to do it. It helps our Iowa customers. Because these projects are successful, it's enabled us to keep rates — among other reasons — it's helped to keep rates absolutely unchanged now for more than a decade, which is very unusual among electric utilities in the United States. Charlie?
查理·芒格没有,我没什么要补充的。
CHARLIE MUNGERNo, I've got nothing to add.
我们本不会让 NetJets 破产
We would not have let NetJets go bankrupt
沃伦·巴菲特安德鲁?
WARREN BUFFETTAndrew?
安德鲁·罗斯·索金嗯,这不是关于戴维·索科尔的问题,但和他有关。实际上这是个关于 NetJets 的问题。这位股东问:“你曾称赞索科尔‘拯救了一个注定要破产的运营’,你的这句话让我很震惊。这真的引起了我的注意,因为我不记得你或伯克希尔·哈撒韦之前说过,在他的前任理查德·桑图利卸任时,NetJets 濒临破产。事实上,当时公司给人的印象是它正在处理一些短期问题,但基本面是稳健的。实际上,它离破产有多近?如果是这样的话,你为什么不告诉我们?最后,当主要股东认为它‘注定要破产’时,NetJets 要求潜在客户把钱交给他们,这在道德上是否合理?”
ANDREW ROSS SORKINWell, this is not a David Sokol question, but it relates to him. It's actually a NetJets question. This shareholder asked, “I was struck by your statement when you praised Sokol for, quote, 'having resurrected an operation that was destined for bankruptcy.' "This really got my attention because I don't recall you or Berkshire Hathaway saying earlier that NetJets was on the verge of bankruptcy at the time that his predecessor, Richard Santulli, had stepped down. "In fact, at the time, the company seemed to give the impression it was dealing with a few short-term problems but that it was fundamentally sound. In truth, how close was it to bankruptcy? And if that was the case, why didn't you tell us? "And finally, was it ethical for NetJets to be asking perspective clients to part with their money at a time when it was, in the eyes of its main shareholder, quote, 'destined for bankruptcy?'”
沃伦·巴菲特对,我记得我说过——也许我们能找到原话——但我记得我说过,如果没有伯克希尔·哈撒韦持有它,如果它是独立实体,那它注定会破产。伯克希尔从未有任何意图,也永远不会有任何意图,要让 NetJets 破产。但如果它被其他人作为独立公司持有,那它就会落到那个下场。有了伯克希尔的持有,伯克希尔旗下有两家保险公司,作为独立保险公司原本也会破产。而我们——我们从未想过会让它们破产。所以,我们把资金投入伯克希尔旗下那些已经破产的公司,基本上让它们恢复健康。本质上,我们对 NetJets 也做了同样的事——我们投入资金,让它的负债升至 19 亿。但 NetJets,在我看来——嗯,如果没有像伯克希尔这样的公司持有它,它本来会破产。我几乎可以肯定我说过这话,即如果没有伯克希尔的持有,或者类似措辞——让我看看能不能找到它。也许查理可以在我找的时候评论一下。无论如何——(笑声)嗯,我一时没找到我讨论这个问题的部分,但我知道我谈过它破产的事,但我也知道我加了限定条件,说它不被伯克希尔持有。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, I think I said it was — maybe we can find the exact words here — but I think I said it was destined for bankruptcy, absent the fact that Berkshire Hathaway owned it, if it had been a standalone entity. And Berkshire never had any intent, never would have had any intent of any kind, to bankrupt NetJets. But if it had been owned as a standalone by somebody else, the public, that's what would have happened to it. With Berkshire's ownership, Berkshire has had two insurance companies that would have gone bankrupt as standalone insurance companies. And we — it never crossed our mind that we would let them do it. So we put money into companies that were bankrupt that Berkshire owned to make them whole, basically. And, essentially, we were doing the same thing with NetJets when we put in — we got it up to 1.9 billion. But NetJets, in my opinion — well, it would have been bankrupt, absent somebody like Berkshire owning it. I'm almost positive that I said that, that absent Berkshire's ownership, or some words to that effect — let's see if I can find it. Maybe Charlie can be commenting while I'm looking for this. In any event — (Laughter) Well, I'm not finding it immediately where I even discussed it, but I know I talked about it on the bankruptcy thing, but I also know that I conditioned it on not being owned by Berkshire. Charlie?
查理·芒格不评论。
CHARLIE MUNGERNo comment.
沃伦·巴菲特不评论。(笑声)我们已经向标普和穆迪指出过这件事。我们看待——伯克希尔有很多不同的公司,但我们都把它视作一个整体,你知道,穆迪或标普不得不逐个单独评估它们,但查理和我不——我们从来就没想过要抛弃某个公司。我们在路易斯安那有一家,南方意外险,还有一家在芝加哥,这两家要是靠自己,早就破产了,而我们甚至都没考虑过不让它们恢复原状。
WARREN BUFFETTNo comment. (Laughter) We've pointed that out to Standard & Poor’s and Moody's. We look at — Berkshire has a lot of different companies, but we feel that it's one entity and, you know, Moody’s or Standard and Poor’s has to look at each one separately and all of that, but Charlie and I did not — have not been running this business to walk away from some company. We had one in Louisiana, Southern Casualty, and we had another one in Chicago, both of which, if left to their own devices, would have gone bankrupt, and we didn't even think about not making them whole.
巴菲特的建议:投资自己的技能
Buffett's advice: invest in your own skills
沃伦·巴菲特11 区?
WARREN BUFFETTArea 11?
现场股东下午好。我叫克里斯托弗·戴维(音)。我来自弗吉尼亚州阿灵顿,是个创业者。我的问题关于年轻人。我跟很多高中生、大学生还有刚毕业的人打交道,他们面临一个青年失业率 20% 的就业市场,同时却面临着最有利的创业环境之一。创办企业或加入初创公司比以往任何时候都容易。考虑到这些孩子对政治敏锐,喜欢学经济,非常聪明,又愿意学习,从投资角度看,您能给他们什么建议,帮他们规划自己的路,而不是去找一份朝九晚五的工作?
AUDIENCE MEMBERGood afternoon. My name is Christopher David (PH). I'm an entrepreneur from Arlington, Virginia. My question is about the youth. I work with a lot of high school and college students and recent graduates who are facing a job market with 20 percent youth unemployment, and at the same time one of the most favorable entrepreneurial environments. It's easier than ever to start a business or get involved with a startup. So considering that these kids are politically savvy, they like studying economics, they're brilliant and they’re willing to learn, what advice can you give them from an investment perspective that could help them chart their own course, as opposed to get a nine-to-five job?
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,你能做的最主要的事——而且人们做法各不相同。我以前的做法是大量阅读——我小时候几乎就泡在奥马哈公共图书馆,从 9 岁、10 岁或 11 岁开始,一连三四年。我是说,你做的任何提升自己技能的事,你知道,你永远不知道日后会在哪里得到回报。我办公室里只挂了一张文凭,我还有别的几个,但那张挂着的文凭是我从戴尔·卡内基课程拿到的,1951 年花了 100 美元。没法估量那 100 美元给我带来多大价值。没有什么比提升自己技能更有用,而要我说,不管做什么,沟通能力是我一辈子都该首先努力提升的领域。我的意思是,如果在 1950 年或 1951 年,我在沟通方面还停留在原地,那我的生活就会完全不同。我开始卖证券时,要是你不会跟人说话,那卖证券就真成问题了。所以——你知道,我觉得人们——我认为——如果你运气好,你早早找到自己的激情所在,但你想做的是你充满热情的事,然后你努力提升那方面的技能。我想,如果你两样都做到了,你很可能会做得非常好。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTWell, the main thing you could do — and people do it different ways. I used to do it by doing a lot of reading — I was — practically lived at the Omaha Public Library for three or four years in pre- — when I was 9 or 10 or 11. I mean, anything you do to improve your own skills, you know, you never know where it's going to pay off later on. I only — I have one diploma hanging in my office, and I got a couple of others, but the one diploma I have hanging up there is one I got from a Dale Carnegie course, which cost me a hundred bucks back in 1951, and I can't — it's incalculable how much value I got from that hundred dollars. There's nothing like working to improve your own skills, and I would say communications skills are the first area I would work on to enhance your value throughout life, no matter what you do. I mean, if I had stayed in the same position I was in, in terms of communicating, back in 1950 or '51, my life would have turned out differently. I mean, I started selling securities. If you can't talk to people, you've got a real problem selling securities. The — so I — you know, I think people — I think the — if you get lucky, you find your passion early on, but you want to work at something you're passionate about, and then you want to work to improve your skills in that. And I think if you do both of those things, I think you're likely to do very well. Charlie?
查理·芒格对,我觉得经济学是一门非常难的学科,教基本的微观经济学和一些基本概念容易,但一旦涉及到全部的复杂性,你就有麻烦了,因为专家们意见不一致。所以,如果我想学点东西,我不会急着进入那些专家们都互不同意的领域。我会先掌握简单的东西。
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, I think economics is a really tough subject, and I think it's easy to teach the basic microeconomics and certain of the basic ideas, but the minute it gets into the full range of complexity, you have the difficulty that the experts disagree. So, I don't think I would hurry if I were trying to learn something into the parts of the fields where none of the experts can agree among themselves. I would master the easy stuff first.
沃伦·巴菲特对,我不认为——嗯,我不会建议上学的人去上很多经济学的课程。我试着回想一下。我在沃顿上经济学课已经是很久以前的事了,但我不觉得那些课对我有什么大的推动作用。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, I don't think — yeah, I would not advise taking lots of courses in economics to somebody going to school. I'm just trying to think back. It's been a long time since I took my economics courses at Wharton, but I don't regard them as the ones that pushed me forward in any significant way.
再保险比看上去难得多
Reinsurance is a lot harder than it looks
沃伦·巴菲特卡罗尔?
WARREN BUFFETTCarol?
卡罗尔·卢米斯乔恩·布兰特的提问。伯克希尔持有慕尼黑再保险和瑞士再保险的股权,这会减少你们愿意直接承保的巨灾风险保险业务量吗?如果会,假设价格又变得有吸引力了,你们会不会限制购买其他再保险股票的数量,以便做更多直接业务?
CAROL LOOMISQuestion from Jon Brandt. Does Berkshire's equity ownership in Munich and Swiss Re reduce the amount of catastrophe-exposed insurance business you are willing to write directly? If so, assume that prices return to being attractive, would you then limit the quantity of other reinsurance stocks you buy so that you could do more direct business?
沃伦·巴菲特我们投资慕尼黑再和瑞士再的金额低于——嗯,算一下——不到 40 亿美元,大概是我们净资产的 2.5%。所以这些投资的总规模,远不足以让我改变我们愿意在再保险领域承担的风险。在保险方面,我们距离自己能承受的风险上限还差得远。我在年报里说了,我预计我们正常的税前盈利能力在 170 亿美元左右。这在全球再保险公司里绝无仅有。我们经历了再保险历史上最糟糕的季度,除了卡特里娜飓风那季,你知道,结果我们还是赚了很大一笔钱。所以那些投资对我们承保意愿没有任何限制。我们很希望账上能有更多有吸引力的再保险业务,我们只是——只是找不到价格与风险相称的业务。但这可不是因为我们总体上厌恶风险。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTWe have invested in Munich and Swiss Re less than — well, let's see what it would be — it's less than $4 billion, so we're talking 2 1/2 percent of our net worth. So those investments, in aggregate, are not of a magnitude that would cause me to change at all what we're willing to do — the risks we're willing to bear — in the reinsurance field. We're way below, sort of, capacity, in terms of risk that we will tolerate in insurance. I mean, I put in the report, you know, I expect our normal earning power to be in the $17 billion or something pretax range. Well, that is so unlike any other reinsurance company in the world. We went through the worst quarter in reinsurance history, except for Katrina's quarter, you know, and we end up earning, you know, very substantial sums. So those investments are no constraint at all on our willingness to write insurance. We would love to have a lot more attractive reinsurance business on the books, we just — we just can't find it at prices that we think are commensurate for the risk. But it's not because of an aversion to risk overall. Charlie?
查理·芒格对,保险,尤其是再保险,不是那么好做。你花了很长时间才做到今天这样。要不是有阿吉特,那我们——我们业务会小得多。
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, it's — insurance, and particularly reinsurance, it's not that easy a business. It's taken you a long time to do as well as you do. And if it weren't for Ajit, why, we wouldn't — we'd be a lot smaller business.
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,得指出一点,我们头 15 年在再保险业务上其实根本没成功。我们大约在 1970 年开始做再保险,当时负责的人是乔治·扬,我非常欣赏他,但算上浮存金的价值,那 15 年里这不是一门好生意,直到阿吉特来了。这不是容易的生意。大部分时间看起来容易。我的意思是——
WARREN BUFFETTWell, it should be pointed out, we really didn't succeed at all in the reinsurance business in the first 15 years. We started in reinsurance around 1970, and we had a fellow that I thought the world of running it, George Young, but net, counting the value of float, it was not a good business for us for 15 years until Ajit came along. It is not an easy business. It looks easy most of the time. I mean —
查理·芒格这就是麻烦所在。它看起来比实际简单。
CHARLIE MUNGERThat's the trouble with it. It looks easier than it is.
沃伦·巴菲特这看起来比实际要容易得多。你知道,这就像拿着一对骰子,接受押注双六之类的事情,它每 36 次中出一次,所以如果你给出错误的赔率,你能赢下很多赌注,但如果你玩得足够久,你就会输掉很多钱。所以这些不常发生的事件,你最好把它们纳入你的定价考量,不要因为某一年、两年、甚至三四年你赚了钱就自欺欺人。大多数人在这一点上有点犯难,而我们在这一点上也有点犯难了大概 15 年。
WARREN BUFFETTIt looks way easier than it is. And, you know, it's like having a pair of dice, and, you know, accepting bets on boxcars or something like that, and, you know, it's going to come up once in 36 times, so you can win a lot of bets by giving the wrong odds, but if you keep do it long enough, you lose a lot of money. So these infrequent events, you better have factored in to your pricing, and not fool yourself by whether you make money in a given year or two years or even three or four years. And most people have a little trouble with that, and we had a little trouble with it for about 15 years.
查理·芒格顺便说一句,如今世界的投资银行家们,既然他们大量用自营资金和衍生品交易,他们卖的一些产品,大部分时候客户赢,但当客户输时,就输得极其惨。换句话说,他们比客户聪明,给普通商人造成了最可怕的损失。韩国发生过,墨西哥发生过,也——当心那些兜售新型衍生品的人。
CHARLIE MUNGERAnd incidentally, the investment bankers of the world, now that they trade so much for their own account and derivatives, they have sold some of these products where most of the time the customer wins but when the customer loses, he really loses big. In other words, they're smarter than the customers, and they have caused some of the most horrendous losses to ordinary businessmen. It happened in Korea, it happened in Mexico, it happened — Just beware of the salesman who's selling a new derivative product.
沃伦·巴菲特或者老的。老的也一样。
WARREN BUFFETTOr an old one. An old one, too.
查理·芒格对,但新的更糟。
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, but new ones are worse.
沃伦·巴菲特对。
WARREN BUFFETTYeah.
巴菲特如何初次遇见托德·康布斯
How Buffett first met Todd Combs
沃伦·巴菲特好的。12 区。
WARREN BUFFETTOK. Area 12.
现场股东嗨,我叫波特尔·庞迪(音)。来自宾夕法尼亚州费城。问题关于托德·康布斯,您去年年底雇用的年轻资金管理人。对于芒格先生,我理解是您把他介绍给伯克希尔的。能谈谈那——那关系是怎么开始的,而且我们作为股东,要怎么评估他的进展?
AUDIENCE MEMBERHi, my name is Bottle Pondy (PH). I'm from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Question’s about Todd Combs, the young money manager you hired late last year. For Mr. Munger, I understand you introduced him to Berkshire. Could you talk a little bit about that — how that relationship started, and how we as shareholders, are we going to be able to assess his progress?
查理·芒格我真不愿意提这事,因为我可能会收到一堆不想收到的来信,但他给我写了封信,事情就这么成了。就像沃伦写给拉尔夫·谢伊(Ralph Schey)那封信一样。总之,我跟他吃了顿饭,然后我给沃伦打电话说:“我觉得这人你该跟他聊聊。”我们的业务非常复杂,流程也极为繁琐,你能看得出来。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I hate doing this because I may get more letters than I want, but he sent me a letter. That's how it happened. It was like Warren's letter to the guy at — Ralph Schey. And at any rate, I had a meal with him, and then I called Warren and I said, "I think this is the guy you should talk to." We have a very complicated business and very elaborate procedures, as you can tell. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特而且他的业绩得花五年左右才能看得出来。我的意思是,你不能用六个月或一年的表现来评判一个投资者。
WARREN BUFFETTAnd his results will be known over a five-year period or something. I mean, you cannot judge an investor by what they do in six months or a year.
查理·芒格托德有一个优势,他多年来一直在思考像伯克希尔这样的金融公司。身边有这样的人对我们很有用。
CHARLIE MUNGERTodd has the advantage that he's been thinking about financial companies like Berkshire for a great many years. That's useful for us to have around.
沃伦·巴菲特正如我们在年报里说的,随着时间的推移,我们大概率——但并非确定无疑——会拥有不止一位投资经理。你们知道,伯克希尔有大量资金需要管理。增加人手不是什么坏事,但我们必须找到对的人。对人选的要求,并不仅仅指某个特定的智商水平或某个特定的过往业绩,它涉及方方面面。如果我们最终能有两三位,那——那会是加分项。但这并不是——我们并不把某种结果当作硬性规定。
WARREN BUFFETTAnd as we put in the annual report, it's more likely than not, but not a sure thing, that over time, we have more than one investment manager. You know, there's a lot of money at Berkshire to be managed. And it would not be a bad idea, but we have to find the right people, and the right people just does not mean a given IQ or a given past record, it means a lot of things. And if we end up with two or three, you know, that — that's a plus. But it's not — we don't mandate that sort of a result.
收购与股票
Acquisitions and stock
沃伦·巴菲特贝基?
WARREN BUFFETTBecky?
贝基·奎克这个问题来自斯科特·威尔金(Scott Wilkin),他来自芝加哥,但现在就坐在观众席里。强生(Johnson & Johnson)是伯克希尔最大的持仓之一,他想问您,沃伦,对强生最近以 210 亿美元收购辛迪思(Synthes)有什么看法?您当初对卡夫收购吉百利的交易曾直言反对,特别是因为他们动用了股票。强生的这笔交易也主要用了股票,您支持这笔交易吗?
BECKY QUICKThis question comes in from Scott Wilkin, and he's from Chicago, but he's sitting in the audience right now. Johnson & Johnson is one of Berkshire's biggest holdings, and he asks for your thoughts, Warren, on Johnson & Johnson's recent acquisition of Synthes for $21 billion. You were quite outspoken in your opposition of Kraft's deal for Cadbury, particularly because of their use of stock. J&J's deal also is primarily with stock, and do you support this deal?
沃伦·巴菲特我没有跟强生管理层的任何人谈过,对这家公司也没有内部消息,但基本上,如果这笔交易全用现金的话,我会喜欢得多。道理是这样的——当一家公司的管理层拿东西去换——我记得这笔交易大约三分之二是股票,三分之一是现金。而强生完全有能力用现金支付一笔 220 亿美元的交易。当他们拿自己现有的生意去换别的生意时,要么是在说自己的生意估值已经非常充分了,要么是在说对方犯了个极大的错误才愿意卖给他们。所以我会——就像我刚说的,如果它全用现金,我会喜欢得多。而且我认为,用大量股票来做这种交易,这显然——你可以——你可以得出一个推论:强生对自己业务的估值,并不如你想象中那么有吸引力。如果你用自家公司的股票,以高于市价 20% 或更多的价格去买另一家公司,而且,你知道,管理上大概率也没什么协同效应。也许有一点,但通常也会有一些抵消因素。但如同我刚才所说,如果他们用现金来做这笔交易,我会更喜欢。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTI have not talked to anybody in the Johnson & Johnson management, and I have no specific knowledge of the company, but basically, I would like the deal a whole lot better if it was all for cash. The idea — when a management trades away — I think this deal is about two-thirds stock, roughly, and one-third cash. And Johnson & Johnson has plenty of ability to pay cash for a $22 billion deal. And when they trade away their present businesses for some other business, they're either saying their own businesses are pretty fully valued, or they're saying the guy is making a hell of a mistake that's selling to them. So I would — like I say, if it was all for cash, I would like it a lot better. And I think that it is — by using a lot of stock for a deal like this, that it certainly — you can — you can draw the inference that J&J is not valuing its own businesses, you know, as attractively as you might think they should be evaluated. And if you use your own company stock to pay 20 percent or more than market for some other company and, you know, there probably are not a lot of synergies involved or anything in the management. There may be some, but there's usually some offsets too. But like I said, I would have much preferred it if they'd done it for cash. Charlie?
查理·芒格是啊,还有另一个不利因素你知道,你对巧克力和披萨的了解,比你对医疗器械的了解要多得太多了。
CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, you also have the disadvantage in (inaudible) that you know a hell of a lot more about chocolate and pizza than you know about medical devices.
沃伦·巴菲特你觉得我对巧克力更了解?(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETTYou think I know more about chocolate?
查理·芒格嗯,你——(笑声)但是在卡夫那个例子上,我是说,你讨论的是沃伦非常了解的生意,而我们俩谁对医疗器械都不怎么了解。
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, you — (Laughter) But at Kraft, I mean, you’re talking about businesses that Warren knew a lot about, and neither of us knows much about medical devices.
沃伦·巴菲特是啊,那个披萨生意自从卡夫把它卖掉以后,做得还挺不错的。(笑)
WARREN BUFFETTYeah, the pizza has business has done pretty well since it was sold by Kraft. (Laughs)
我们为什么不会为收购而增发股票
Why we won't issue stock to make an acquisition
沃伦·巴菲特我们转到另一个房间的 13 号问题。
WARREN BUFFETTWe go to 13 in the other room.
现场股东嗨,我是来自纽约的格伦·唐(Glenn Tongue)。首先,感谢你们安排了这精彩的一天。我的问题跟收购有关。在收购路博润之前,我们估计伯克希尔 2011 年底的现金余额可能接近 600 亿美元。我记得您最近提到过某头大象,觉得它太大了。您现在的收购胃口如何?多大的规模才算太大?最近电话响得勤吗?还有,作为股东,我们能做些什么来帮忙吗?
AUDIENCE MEMBERHi, I'm Glenn Tongue from New York. First off, thank you for a terrific day. My question deals with acquisitions. Pre-Lubrizol, we estimated Berkshire's year-end 2011 cash balance could approach $60 billion. I believe you commented recently on an elephant that you thought was too big. What is your acquisition appetite? What size is too big? Has the phone been ringing lately? And what if anything can we, as shareholders, do to help?
沃伦·巴菲特我上完大学那会儿,要回答的问题都没这么多。不过——(笑声)格伦,你能帮上任何忙,我都很感激。你知道,很难说一个具体的数字。你说的这个目标,你知道,就实在太大了,除非我们动用大量股票,而正如我所说,我们不会那么做。我们的胃口一直都在。我们不会去大举借债。我们不会增发股票,除非为了达成某笔别无他法的交易而动用极小量的股票。而且,显而易见,我们也永远不会卖掉一家公司去买另一家公司。所以,你知道,我们的现金余额会逐月积累,除非我们采取行动。我们可以,也会,卖出手里的一些有价证券。不过做路博润这笔交易需要动用近 90 亿美元的现金,而显然我们还能再做一笔那种规模的。事实上,我们正在看几家,但目前还只是想想而已,它们需要的金额大致跟路博润差不多。我们做这些交易会很从容,它们会显著——显著提升伯克希尔的盈利能力。这些交易值得做。但我们现在做不了那种——那种特别大的大象,而且我们不会——你知道,我们不会勉强。我们从来——我们压根儿没冒过什么风险,因为我们不需要,我们也不会拿我们拥有且需要的东西,去换我们没有且不需要的东西,哪怕我们有点想要它。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTI got through college answering fewer questions than that. But the — (Laughter) But anything you can do to help, I appreciate, Glenn. The — you know, it's hard to name a precise figure. This one, you know, was way too big unless we used a lot of stock, which, like I say, we wouldn't do. Our appetite is always there. We are not going to borrow a lot of money. We're not going to issue shares, except perhaps in some minor amount to make a deal that couldn't get made otherwise. But — and, obviously, we'll never sell a business to buy some other business. So, you know, our cash balances will tend to build month to month unless we do something. And we can, and will, sell some portfolio securities. But doing Lubrizol requires close to $9 billion of cash, and obviously we could do another one of that size. In fact, we're looking at a couple, but they're no more than a gleam in the eye, but they would take sums roughly similar to Lubrizol, and, you know, we would be comfortable doing those, and they would add significant — significantly to Berkshire's earning power. They're worth doing. But we can't do a really — a really big elephant now, and we won't — you know, we won't stretch. We never — we've never really taken any risks because we don't need to, and we will not trade something that we have and need for something that we don't have and don't need, even if we'd kind of like to have it. Charlie?
查理·芒格嗯,我完全同意这些。我们非常不情愿发行股票。在这一点上,我们和大多数公司不同。我有一个朋友,他把公司卖给了一个社会主义国家,对方用一家受控公司的股票来支付,那个社会主义国家的高管说:“我们白白拿到这个生意,实在是太棒了。”
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I certainly agree with all that. We are very reluctant to issue shares. And in that, we're different from most places. I have a friend that sold out to a socialist country, and they issued shares in a controlled corporation, and the socialist executive said, "Isn't this wonderful we're getting this business for nothing."
沃伦·巴菲特确实有人这么想。当然,有些公司——我们谈到过 60 年代末的那波浪潮,但它会周期性出现——互联网时期肯定发生过一次——有些公司增发股票的速度快得惊人,因为他们本质上是在用纸屑换真实资产。这种商业模式在过去某些时期被某些公司成功运用过。它通常以某种惨败告终,不过——我不该说通常,但它总会在某个时候失去动力。但,你知道,本质上我们从来不参与这种游戏。我们讨厌增发股票,当我们增发股票时,我们就是在卖掉自己——每增发一次股票,我们就放弃了我们所拥有的每一家优秀企业的一部分,从 GEICO 到 ISCAR,再到你们能想到的任何一家。我们不喜欢那样。我们喜欢拥有这些生意,我们想拥有更多。我们——你知道,比如我们跟 Marmon 有一项协议,今年我们又买下了一部分,再过几年我们会买下剩余部分,对此我们感觉很好。我们支付公平的价格,但换来的是我们熟悉的生意、我们喜欢的管理层,这才是在伯克希尔我们希望继续做的事情。事实上,我们会继续这样做。
WARREN BUFFETTSome people really have that, and, of course, there are some companies — and we talked about the wave that took place in the late '60s, but periodically — one certainly happened during the internet period — companies just couldn't issue shares fast enough, because they basically were trading confetti for real assets. And that is a business model that has been applied successfully for some periods of time by certain companies in the past. It usually ends in some kind of a fiasco, but — well, I shouldn't say it usually does, but it runs out of gas at some point. But, you know, essentially, we've never been in that game. We hate issuing shares and the idea of selling our — when we issue shares we're divesting ourselves of a portion of every wonderful business we have, from GEICO to ISCAR to you name it. And we don't like doing that. We like owning those businesses. We'd like to own more of them. We — you know, we have a deal, for example, on Marmon where we bought some more of it this year, and we will buy the rest of it a few more years, and we feel good about that. We pay a fair price for it, but we get a business we know, a management we like, and that's really what we'd like to continue doing at Berkshire. In fact, we will continue doing it.
房地产市场糟糕透顶,但反弹时我们会获利
Housing market is terrible, but we'll profit on the rebound
沃伦·巴菲特安德鲁?
WARREN BUFFETTAndrew?
安德鲁·罗斯·索金这个问题来自拉里·皮特科夫斯基,他是长期股东,我想他就在观众席里,来自 GoodHaven 基金。他问:“多年来,您建立或收购了大量与住宅和商业房地产市场相关的业务,包括经纪服务、隔热材料、地毯、建筑材料、油漆家具等板块。伯克希尔对这些业务的所有权,似乎为您提供了一个独特的窗口来观察当前状况。您能谈谈当前住宅和商业房地产市场的现状,以及我们在未来——”——这或许是在问长远预期——“——未来十年里,可能会看到这些业务发生什么?”
ANDREW ROSS SORKINThis question comes from Larry Pitkowsky, who is a long-time shareholder, I think he's in the audience, from the GoodHaven Fund. He asks, “Over the years, you built or acquired a significant number of businesses that are related to the residential and commercial real estate markets, including such segments as brokerage servicing, insulation, carpeting, construction products, painted furniture. "Berkshire's ownership with these businesses would seem to give you a unique window through which to view current conditions. Could you give us some insight into the current state of the housing and commercial real estate market and what we might expect to see in these businesses over" — and this might be a long shot — "over the next decade.”
沃伦·巴菲特嗯,眼下的情况很糟糕。已经很长时间毫无起色了,这影响了 Shaw,影响了 MiTek,影响了 Acme Brick,影响了 Johns Manville,也影响了我们的 HomeServices 业务。完全没有反弹,你们从新屋开工数据里也能看到。我不是在说你们看不到的东西,只是我每月看到盈利数字时感到痛苦。但这些是好生意。就像我在年报里提到的,我们收购了阿拉巴马州最大的砖厂。我认为阿拉巴马州的人均用砖量全美第一,但眼下这没多大意义,因为根本没什么人在用砖。但我们买了它,我们开了一张现金支票,我们喜欢巩固自己的地位。MiTek 也收购了一些业务。Shaw 今年要花几亿美元,部分是因为地毯业务性质的变化。长远来看,这个国家建造房屋的总量会跟家庭数量增长相匹配,我认为未来几十年我们会看到大量家庭数量增长,而我们的公司定位很好,等房屋建造回到正常水平时,它们能赚到可观的利润。我在年报里说,我认为——到年底我们会看到回升。自从我写完年报,没看到任何迹象表明我肯定是对的,这两个月里我还没看到任何动静。我想它到时候会开始回升,但如果没有,那,你知道,可能会晚一年。我觉得没人知道答案。不过,如果非得让我赌一把,我认为年底前会回升。这对我们来说其实没那么重要。当我决定在阿拉巴马州收购那家砖厂时,并不是因为我认为砖业会在两个月、六个月或一年内好转。而是我认为长期来看,在阿拉巴马州——紧邻我们在德克萨斯州的强大业务——成为一家非常重要的制砖和分销企业,以我们支付的价格来说,会是一笔不错的投资。我对这个决定感觉良好,但我对接下来六个月的砖业业绩不会感觉良好。这点我很确定。查理?
WARREN BUFFETTWell, the immediate situation is it's terrible. It's been flatlined now for a long time, and it affects Shaw, it affects MiTek, it affects Acme Brick, it affects Johns Manville, it affects our HomeServices operation. And there has been no bounce, at all, but you see that in the housing start figures, too. I'm not telling you anything you don't see, except I see it with pain as I look at the monthly earnings figures. But those are good businesses. And as I mentioned in the annual report, we bought the largest brick operation in Alabama. And I think Alabama uses more brick per capita than any state in the union, but that doesn't mean much currently, because nobody is using any brick to speak of. But we bought it. We wrote a check for cash, and we like improving our position. MiTek has bought operations. Shaw is spending a couple hundred million dollars this year, partly because of a change in the nature of the carpet business. This country, over time, will build houses at a rate, overall, in total, commensurate with household growth, and I think we're going to see plenty of household growth in future decades, and I think that our companies are well-positioned to make significant money when we get to a normalized level of home building. I said in the annual report I thought it would — we would be seeing the upswing by year-end. I've seen nothing since I wrote the annual report that makes it look like I'm certain to be correct or anything, that there's been no movement that I've seen so far in the two months since I wrote the report. I would think it would start occurring by then, but if it doesn't, you know, it may be a year later. I don't think anybody knows the answer on that. If I had to bet one way or another, though, I think it will be turning up by year-end. It really isn't that important to us. When I made the decision to buy the brick company in Alabama, it was not because I thought brick was going to turn in two months or six months or a year. I thought that over time, being a very important brick manufacturer and distributor in Alabama adjacent to our strong operation in Texas, it would be a good investment at the price that we paid. And I feel good about the decision, but I won't feel good about our brick results in the next six months. I can be sure of that. Charlie?
查理·芒格嗯,买这些强周期企业的一个好处是,很多人不喜欢它们。如果这些企业年平均盈利,比方说,3 亿美元,但到账方式很不规律,这对我们来说有什么区别呢?从大局来看,只要这是个好生意,它到账是否规律,我们又在乎什么呢?在这方面我们有优势。当时没人愿意去竞标阿拉巴马州那个根本没什么客户可言的砖厂。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGERWell, one advantage of buying these very cyclical businesses is a lot of people don't like them. And what difference does it make to us if the earnings average, say, 300 million a year, if it comes in in a very lumpy fashion? In the big scheme of things, what do we care if it's lumpy, as long as it's a good business? And we have an advantage on that stuff. Nobody else was bidding for a brick plant in Alabama with no customers to speak of. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特你在阿拉巴马州要是需要砖,我们就在那儿。(笑声)你知道,喜诗糖果,一个相当不错的生意,一年里大概有八个月是亏钱的。只不过我们恰好知道它的季节性规律,所以我们不会在七月担心圣诞节不来——你懂的,有好几千年的历史规律给我们撑腰。(笑声)所以说——但这——你知道,这很容易理解。如果你只看喜诗一个月的盈利,或者只看一个季度,你会想,这些人在这个行业里搞什么名堂?现在,很明显,周期性行业的表现不会跟季节性行业完全一样,但为什么要用不同的眼光来看待它呢?我的意思是,如果看未来 20 年,住宅建筑方面会有,你知道,三四年糟糕的年份,会有很多相当不错的年份,还会有几个好得惊人的年份。我不知道它们会以什么顺序出现,但我知道如果我能以足够便宜的价格买入资产,参与到这 20 年里来,那我们在那段时间里就会做得不错。这就是为什么我们进入了砖头生意。
WARREN BUFFETTWe'll be there if you need brick in Alabama. (Laughter) You know, See's Candy, a wonderful business, loses money roughly eight months of the year. Now, it just so happens we know the seasonal pattern, so we don't worry in July that somehow Christmas won't come, you know. We've got a couple thousand years on our side. (Laughter) So the — but that's — you know, that's easy to see. If you just looked at one month of See's earnings or looked at one quarter, you'd think, what are these guys doing in this business? Now, obviously, cyclical businesses, you know, are not going to behave exactly the same as seasonal businesses, but why look at it any differently? I mean, if you take the next 20 years, there will be, you know, three or four terrible years for residential housing, and there will be a lot of them that are pretty good, and there will be a few that are terrific. And I don't know the order in which they're going to appear, but I know if I can buy the assets cheap enough to participate in those 20 years, that we'll do OK over that time. So that's why we're in the brick business.
正式业务会议前的短暂休会
Short adjournment before formal business meeting
沃伦·巴菲特现在咱们看看。嗯,现在是 3 点 30 分,所以我们会休会大约五分钟,然后我们将进行伯克希尔·哈撒韦的业务会议。我们可以把灯调亮,几分钟后我们再回来。(掌声)
WARREN BUFFETTNow let's see. Yeah, we're at 3:30, so we will adjourn for about five minutes, and then we will conduct the business meeting of Berkshire Hathaway, and we can turn the lights up, and we'll rejoin you in just a couple of minutes. (Applause)
伯克希尔年度股东大会正式开始
Berkshire formal annual meeting begins
沃伦·巴菲特好了。请大家安静下来,我们处理些正式事务。今天上午我介绍了到场的伯克希尔·哈撒韦董事。今天在场的还有我们的审计公司德勤会计师事务所的合伙人。他们可以回答你们关于他们公司审计伯克希尔账目方面的适当问题。Forrest Krutter 是伯克希尔的秘书。他将做会议的文字记录。Becki Amick 已被任命为本次会议的选举监察官。她将认证本次会议中董事选举和所表决动议的投票计数。本次会议指定的代理表决权持有人是 Walter Scott 和 Marc Hamburg。秘书是否有关于伯克希尔已发行、有权投票以及本次会议有代表权的股份数量的报告?
WARREN BUFFETTOK. If you'll settle down, we'll conduct a little business. This morning I introduced the Berkshire Hathaway directors that are present. Also with us today are partners in the firm of Deloitte & Touche, our auditors. They are available to respond to appropriate questions you might have concerning their firm's audit of the accounts of Berkshire. Forrest Krutter is secretary of Berkshire. He will make a written record of the proceedings. Becki Amick has been appointed inspector of elections at this meeting. She will certify to the count of votes cast in the election for directors and the motions voted upon at this meeting. The named proxy holders for this meeting are Walter Scott and Marc Hamburg. Does the secretary have a report of the number of Berkshire shares outstanding, entitled to vote, and represented at the meeting?
Forrest Krutter有的。根据随本次会议通知一同寄送给所有在 2011 年 3 月 2 日(即本次会议记录日期)登记在册的股东的代理声明,已发行 A 类普通股 942,559 股,每股在本次会议审议的动议上享有一票表决权;已发行 B 类普通股 1,059,055,810 股,每股在本次会议审议的动议上享有万分之一票表决权。其中,截至 4 月 28 日(周四)晚间,通过代理投票返回的有 A 类股 663,042 股,B 类股 659,697,109 股。
FORREST KRUTTERYes, I do. As indicated in the proxy statement that accompanied the notice of this meeting that was sent to all shareholders of record on March 2, 2011, being the record date for this meeting, there were 942,559 shares of Class A Berkshire Hathaway common stock outstanding, with each share entitled to one vote on motions considered at the meeting, and 1,059,055,810 shares of Class B Berkshire Hathaway common stock outstanding, with each share entitled to 1/10,000th of one vote on motions considered at the meeting. Of that number, 663,042 Class A shares, and 659,697,109 Class B shares are represented at this meeting by proxies returned through Thursday evening, April 28th.
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢。这个数字构成了法定人数,因此我们将直接进行会议。第一项议程是宣读上次股东会议的纪要。我请 Walter Scott 先生向会议提交一项动议。
WARREN BUFFETTThank you. That number represents a quorum and we will therefore directly proceed with the meeting. The first order of business will be a reading of the minutes of the last meeting of shareholders. I recognize Mr. Walter Scott, who will place a motion before the meeting.
Walter Scott我提议免于宣读上次股东会议的纪要,并批准该纪要。
WALTER SCOTTI move that the reading of the minutes of the last meeting of the shareholders be dispensed with and the minutes be approved.
沃伦·巴菲特有人附议吗?
WARREN BUFFETTDo I hear a second?
现场人士附议。
VOICESecond.
沃伦·巴菲特该动议已提出并获得附议。有评论或问题吗?我们将通过口头表决对此动议进行投票。赞成的请说“同意”。反对的?动议通过。
WARREN BUFFETTThe motion has been moved and seconded. Are there any comments or questions? We will vote on this motion by voice vote. All those in favor, say aye. Opposed? The motion is carried.
选举董事
Election of directors
沃伦·巴菲特下一项议程是选举董事。如果现场有股东希望撤回之前提交的代理投票,并亲自对董事选举进行投票,可以这样做。此外,如果现场有任何股东尚未提交代理投票并希望获得选票亲自投票,也可以这样做。如果你想这样做,请向过道中的一位会议工作人员表明身份,他们会提供选票给你。我请 Walter Scott 先生就董事选举向会议提交一项动议。
WARREN BUFFETTThe next item of business is to elect directors. If a shareholder is present who wishes to withdraw a proxy previously sent in and vote in person on the election of directors, you may do so. Also, if any shareholder that is present has not turned in a proxy and desires a ballot in order to vote in person, you may do so. If you wish to do this, please identify yourself to one of the meeting officials in the aisles, who will furnish a ballot to you. I recognize Mr. Walter Scott to place a motion before the meeting with respect to election of directors.
Walter Scott我提议选举 Warren Buffett、Charles Munger、Howard Buffett、Stephen Burke、Susan Decker、William Gates、David Gottesman、Charlotte Guyman、Don Keough、Tom Murphy、Ron Olson 和 Walter Scott 为董事。
WALTER SCOTTI move that Warren Buffett, Charles Munger, Howard Buffett, Stephen Burke, Susan Decker, William Gates, David Gottesman, Charlotte Guyman, Don Keough, Tom Murphy, Ron Olson, and Walter Scott be elected as directors.
沃伦·巴菲特有人附议吗?
WARREN BUFFETTIs there a second?
现场人士我附议。
VOICEI second the motion.
沃伦·巴菲特已有人提出并附议,选举 Warren Buffett、Charles Munger、Howard Buffett、Stephen Burke、Susan Decker、William Gates、David Gottesman、Charlotte Guyman、Donald Keough、Thomas Murphy、Ronald Olson 和 Walter Scott 为董事。还有其他提名吗?有讨论吗?提名已准备就绪,可以付诸表决。如果有股东要亲自投票,现在应在董事选举的选票上做标记,并将选票交给选举监察官。Amick 小姐,你准备好后可以做出报告。
WARREN BUFFETTIt has been moved and seconded that Warren Buffett, Charles Munger, Howard Buffett, Stephen Burke, Susan Decker, William Gates, David Gottesman, Charlotte Guyman, Donald Keough, Thomas Murphy, Ronald Olson, and Walter Scott be elected as directors. Are there any other nominations? Is there any discussion? The nominations are ready to be acted upon. If there are any shareholders voting in person, they should now mark their ballots on the election of directors and allow the ballots to be delivered to the inspector of elections. Miss Amick, when you are ready, you may give your report.
Becki Amick我的报告已准备好。根据截至上周四晚上收到的代理投票,代理表决权持有人投出的选票中,每位被提名人的得票数不少于 701,770 票。这个数字远远超过了所有已发行 A 类和 B 类股总票数的多数。特拉华州法律要求的对投票精确计数的认证将交给秘书,与本次会议纪要一同存档。
BECKI AMICKMy report is ready. The ballot of the proxyholders in response to proxies that were received through last Thursday evening, cast not less than 701,770 votes for each nominee. That number far exceeds a majority of the number of the total votes of all Class A and Class B shares outstanding. The certification required by Delaware law of the precise count of the votes will be given to the secretary to be placed with the minutes of this meeting.
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢,Amick 小姐。Warren Buffett、Charles Munger、Howard Buffett、Stephen Burke、Susan Decker、William Gates、David Gottesman、Charlotte Guyman、Donald Keough、Thomas Murphy、Ronald Olson 和 Walter Scott 已当选为董事。
WARREN BUFFETTThank you, Miss Amick. Warren Buffett, Charles Munger, Howard Buffett, Stephen Burke, Susan Decker, William Gates, David Gottesman, Charlotte Guyman, Donald Keough, Thomas Murphy, Ronald Olson, and Walter Scott have been elected as directors.
股东对伯克希尔高管薪酬的咨询性投票
Shareholder advisory vote on Berkshire's executive compensation
沃伦·巴菲特议程的下一项是对伯克希尔·哈撒韦高管薪酬的咨询性投票。我请 Walter Scott 先生就这一事项向会议提交一项动议。
WARREN BUFFETTThe next item on the agenda is an advisory vote on the compensation of Berkshire Hathaway's executive officers. I recognize Mr. Walter Scott to place a motion before the meeting on this item.
Walter Scott我提议,公司股东在咨询性基础上,批准支付给公司指定高管的薪酬,该薪酬已根据 S-K 条例第 402 项的要求披露,包括公司 2011 年股东大会代理声明中的薪酬讨论与分析、所附薪酬表格及相关叙述性讨论。
WALTER SCOTTI move that the shareholders of the company approve, on an advisory basis, the compensation paid to the company's named executive officers, as disclosed pursuant to Item 402 of Regulation S-K, including compensation discussion and analysis, the accompanying compensation tables, and related narrative discussion, in the company's 2011 annual meeting proxy statement.
沃伦·巴菲特有人附议吗?
WARREN BUFFETTIs there a second?
现场人士附议。
VOICEI second the motion.
沃伦·巴菲特已有人提出并附议,公司股东在咨询性基础上,批准支付给公司指定高管的薪酬。有讨论吗?动议已准备就绪,可以付诸表决。如果有股东要亲自投票,现在应在动议的选票上做标记,并将选票交给选举监察官。Amick 小姐,你准备好后可以做出报告。
WARREN BUFFETTIt has been moved and seconded that the shareholders of the company approve, on an advisory basis, the compensation paid to the company's named executive officers. Is there any discussion? The motion is ready to be acted upon. If there are any shareholders voting in person, they should now mark their ballots on the motion and allow the ballots to be delivered to the inspector of elections. Miss Amick, when you are ready, you may give your report.
Becki Amick我的报告已准备好。根据截至上周四晚上收到的代理投票,代理表决权持有人投出的选票中,赞成在咨询性基础上批准支付给公司指定高管薪酬的票数不少于 720,883 票。这个数字远远超过了所有已发行 A 类和 B 类股总票数的多数。特拉华州法律要求的对投票精确计数的认证将交给秘书,与本次会议纪要一同存档。
BECKI AMICKMy report is ready. The ballot of the proxyholders in response to proxies that were received through last Thursday evening, cast not less than 720,883 votes to approve, on an advisory basis, the compensation paid to the company's named executive officers. That number far exceeds a majority of the number of the total votes of all Class A and Class B shares outstanding. The certification required by Delaware law of the precise count of the votes will be given to the secretary to be placed with the minutes of this meeting.
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢,Amick 小姐。在咨询性基础上批准支付给公司指定高管薪酬的动议获得通过。
WARREN BUFFETTThank you, Miss Amick. The motion to approve, on an advisory basis, the compensation paid to the company's named executive officers has passed.
股东决定每三年进行一次薪酬投票
Shareholders decide to hold a compensation vote every three years
沃伦·巴菲特下一项是对股东关于指定高管薪酬的咨询性投票频率的咨询性投票。我请 Walter Scott 先生就这一事项向会议提交一项动议。
WARREN BUFFETTThe next item is an advisory vote on the frequency of a shareholder advisory vote on compensation of named executive officers. I recognize Mr. Walter Scott to place a motion before the meeting with respect to this item.
Walter Scott我提议,公司股东在咨询性基础上,决定他们就公司代理声明中所述的指定高管薪酬进行咨询性投票的频率,选项为每年、每两年或每三年。
WALTER SCOTTI move that the shareholders of the company determine, on an advisory basis, the frequency, whether annual, bi-annual, or tri-annual, with which they shall have an advisory vote on the compensation of the company's named executive officers, set forth in the company's proxy statement.
沃伦·巴菲特有人附议吗?
WARREN BUFFETTIs there a second?
现场人士附议。
VOICEI second the motion.
沃伦·巴菲特已有人提出并附议,公司股东决定他们就指定高管薪酬进行咨询性投票的频率,选项为每一年、每两年或每三年。有讨论吗?动议已准备就绪,可以付诸表决。如果有股东要亲自投票,现在应在动议的选票上做标记,并将选票交给选举监察官。Amick 小姐,你准备好后可以做出报告。
WARREN BUFFETTIf has been moved and seconded that the shareholders of the company determine the frequency with which they shall have an advisory vote on compensation of named executive officers, with the options being every one, two, or three years. Is there any discussion? The motion is ready to be acted upon. If there are any shareholders voting in person, they should now mark their ballots on the motion and allow the ballots to be delivered to the inspector of elections. Miss Amick, when you are ready, you may give your report.
Becki Amick我的报告已准备好。根据截至上周四晚上收到的代理投票,代理表决权持有人投出的选票中,关于指定高管薪酬咨询性投票的频率:赞成每一年进行的有 112,395 票;赞成每两年进行的有 4,615 票;赞成每三年进行的有 609,699 票。特拉华州法律要求的对投票精确计数的认证将交给秘书,与本次会议纪要一同存档。
BECKI AMICKMy report is ready. The ballot of the proxyholders in response to proxies that were received through last Thursday evening, cast 112,395 votes for a frequency of every year; 4,615 votes for a frequency of every two years; and 609,699 votes for a frequency of every three years, of an advisory vote on the compensation of named executive officers. The certification required by Delaware law of the precise count of the votes will be given to the secretary to be placed with the minutes of this meeting.
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢,Amick 小姐。公司股东已在咨询性基础上决定,他们将每三年对支付给公司指定高管的薪酬进行一次咨询性投票。
WARREN BUFFETTThank you, Miss Amick. The shareholders of the company have determined, on an advisory basis, that they shall have an advisory vote on the compensation paid to the company's named executive officers every three years.
关于减少温室气体的股东动议
Shareholder motion on reduction of greenhouse gases
沃伦·巴菲特接下来议程项目是由考沃德女士提出的一项动议,她是伯克希尔股东,由布鲁斯·赫伯特先生和拉里·多斯先生代表。该动议已在代理声明中列明。动议要求伯克希尔·哈撒韦为其子公司发电厂设定温室气体减排目标,并准备一份股东报告,说明如何实现这些目标。董事们建议股东投票反对该提案。现在请赫伯特先生陈述动议。为了让所有感兴趣的股东都能表达意见,我请赫伯特先生将发言时间控制在五分钟以内。麦克风在——好,我们先请赫伯特先生,如果能开灯的话。
WARREN BUFFETTThe next item of business is a motion put forth by Miss Coward, a Berkshire shareholder represented by Mr. Bruce Herbert and Mr. Larry Dorrs (PH). The motion is set forth in the proxy statement. The motion requests Berkshire Hathaway to establish goals for the reduction of greenhouse gas at its subsidiaries' power plants, and prepare a report for shareholders on how it will achieve these goals. The directors recommend that the shareholders vote against the proposal. I will now recognize Mr. Herbert to present the motion. To allow all interested shareholders to present their views, I ask Mr. Herbert to limit his remarks to five minutes. The microphone at, well, let's have Mr. Herbert first, if we can turn up the lights.
布鲁斯·赫伯特谢谢。各位女士、先生,日安。我叫布鲁斯·赫伯特,是华盛顿州西雅图市 Newground Social Investment 的首席执行官。今天非常高兴来到这里,代表一位终身持有伯克希尔 A 股的股东。我在此陈述代理声明第 12 页上的决议,该决议要求我们公司为其能源控股公司设定温室气体减排目标。这是因为严肃的投资者知道,而且研究也表明,气候变化会带来财务负债。气候风险投资者网络(其成员管理着超过 10 万亿美元的资产)和碳披露项目(全球代表超过 70 万亿美元的资产)都呼吁公司披露与气候变化相关的风险,以及为减轻这些风险所采取的行动。2010 年,66% 的美国电力公用事业公司已经设定了温室气体减排目标。66%。不幸的是,伯克希尔旗下的中美能源并不在其中。现在,投资者有理由感到担忧。就在去年,美国证券交易委员会宣布气候风险是实质性风险,必须予以披露。我们确实赞赏中美能源是美国公用事业公司中拥有最大风力发电投资组合的公司。然而,同样真实的是,中美能源近四分之三的电力来自燃煤发电。全球投资者希望通过更清洁的发电来降低风险,而 66% 的公用事业公司已经公布了相关计划。但中美能源却没有提供这样的计划,尽管其网站公开宣称:“我们将设定具有挑战性的目标,并评估我们持续改善环境绩效的能力”,引号到此结束。对于一家燃煤公用事业公司来说,没有比减少污染更重要的环境目标了。但更重要的是,伯克希尔面临着独特的风险,因为气候变化的财务负担被转嫁到了保险公司身上,而作为一家大型保险公司,这给我们的公司带来了严重的财务后果。伯克希尔享有非凡且当之无愧的声誉,这是几十年来凭借务实远见赢得的。应对气候变化为我们的公司提供了一个维护并提升这一声誉的机会。所以最后要说的是,世界上最大的机构投资者呼吁公司设定温室气体减排目标。这些目标是管理气候变化这一特殊商业风险的关键工具。美国三分之二的公用事业公司已经设定了这类减排目标,而这项决议,重要的是,给予了伯克希尔管理层确定这些目标应该是什么以及制定实现目标流程的自由。主要的代理咨询公司也一再建议投票支持类似的决议。因此,我将以一个请求和一个问题来结束。请求是在座的各位与我们一道支持这个常识性提案。问题是,先生们,你们是否评估过气候变化对我们公司的商业风险,以及你们发现了什么?谢谢。
BRUCE HERBERTThank you. Good day, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Bruce Herbert and I'm chief executive of Newground Social Investment in Seattle, Washington. It is such a pleasure to be here today, representing a life-long owner of Berkshire Class A shares. And I stand to present the resolution found on page 12 of the proxy, that asks our company to set goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions at its energy holdings. This is because serious investors know, and studies show, that climate change creates financial liability. The Investor Network on Climate Risk, whose members manage more than $10 trillion, and the Carbon Disclosure Project, representing more than $70 trillion in assets globally, call on companies to disclose risks related to climate change, as well as the actions taken to mitigate those risks. In 2010, 66 percent of U.S. electric utilities had already set greenhouse gas emission reduction goals. Sixty-six percent. Unfortunately, Berkshire MidAmerican was not among them. Now, investors have cause to be concerned. Just last year, the SEC announced that climate risks are material, and that they must be disclosed. We do applaud MidAmerican for having the largest wind energy portfolio of any utility in the United States. However, it is also true that MidAmerican generates close to three-quarters of its power burning coal. Investors, globally, want to reduce risk through cleaner generation, and 66 percent of public utilities have already published their plans for doing so. But MidAmerican offers no such plan, despite the public proclamation via its website, that, quote, "We will set challenging goals and assess our ability to continually improve our environmental performance," unquote. There is no more important environmental goal for a coal-burning utility than to reduce pollution. But more than this, Berkshire is uniquely vulnerable, in that the financial burdens of climate change are pushed onto insurance companies, and as a major insurer, this has serious financial ramifications for our company. Berkshire enjoys a remarkable and well-earned reputation, earned over many decades, for being practical visionaries. Addressing climate change offers an opportunity for our company both to uphold and to enhance this reputation. So in closing, the world's largest institutional investors call on companies to set greenhouse gas reduction goals. Such goals are key tools for managing the extraordinary business risk of climate change. Two-thirds of utilities in the United States have already set these types of reduction goals, and this resolution, importantly, gives Berkshire managers the freedom to determine what those goals should be and to shape the process for meeting them. And the major proxy advisory firms have repeatedly recommended voting for similar resolutions. So I will close with a request and a question. The request is for all of you here to please join us in supporting this common sense proposal. And the question, gentlemen, is, have you evaluated the business risk of climate change to our companies and what did you find out? Thank you.
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢你,赫伯特先生。我们在 1 区有麦克风。任何想支持或反对该动议的人都可以使用。你们知道 1 区在哪里。我会等一两分钟,看看是否有人想——还有其他人要发言吗?——为了在场各位的利益,我请每位支持或反对动议的发言者将时间限制在两分钟以内,并且只针对动议本身发言。请开始。
WARREN BUFFETTThank you, Mr. Herbert. We have a microphone at zone 1. It's available for anyone wishing to speak for or against the motion. You've seen where zone 1 is there. I'll wait just a minute or two in case anybody would like — is there an additional speaker there that —? I'll ask that, for the benefit of those present, I ask that each speaker for or against the motion limit themselves to two minutes and confine your remarks solely to the motion. So go ahead.
现场股东大家好,我是保罗·赫尔曼,HIP Investor 的创始人。HIP 代表人类影响与利润。我们是加利福尼亚州、伊利诺伊州和华盛顿州的注册投资顾问。气候变化显然是伯克希尔·哈撒韦集团公司的风险之一,包括中美能源和伯灵顿铁路——伯灵顿铁路运输煤炭,其中大部分出口到中国。因此,我们同样关注温室气体的披露、量化及其对利润的影响,以及可能提供给生态效率公司的碳信用资产的量化。所以我们强烈支持这项决议,要求增加披露、提高透明度,并评估可能产生的财务回报或财务负债,特别是凭借你们在再保险方面的专长,因为再保险公司通常会对潜在的碳风险和负债进行量化,而传统保险公司可能不会这样做。因此,我们强烈主张对潜在的风险和负债进行透明化、披露和量化。美国证券交易委员会鼓励这类披露,尽管并未强制要求。伯克希尔·哈撒韦如果这样做将成为领导者,就像通用电气这样的公司,其“绿色创想”计划,10% 的收入来自其“绿色创想”产品,以及其他领导者,从杰夫·伊梅尔特到杜克能源的领导者,他们都对应对气候变化和提高碳效率可能带来的财务回报持积极态度。谢谢。
AUDIENCE MEMBERHi, I'm Paul Herman, founder of HIP Investor. HIP stands for Human Impact and Profit. We're a registered investment advisor in the states of California, Illinois, and Washington. Climate change is obviously one of the risks to Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate companies, including MidAmerican Energy and Burlington — the Burlington railway — which transports coal, much of which is getting exported to China. So we are concerned about, also, about the disclosure, quantification, and impact on profit, of greenhouse gases, as well as the quantification of the asset of the carbon credits that might be available for eco-efficient companies. So we strongly support this resolution for increased disclosure, increased transparency and evaluation of the financial returns that are possible, or the financial liabilities, especially with your expertise in reinsurance, because reinsurance companies typically put a quantification of potential carbon exposure and liabilities, whereas traditional insurance companies may not do so. So we strongly advocate for transparency, disclosure, and quantification as to the potential risks and liabilities. The SEC has encouraged this type of disclosure, though they have not mandated it. So Berkshire Hathaway would be a leader in doing this, as companies like GE, which their Ecomagination initiative, the 10 percent of revenue that they generate from their Ecomagination products, and other leaders from Jeff Immelt to the leaders of Duke Power that take a positive position on the financial returns that are possible for addressing climate change and carbon efficiency. Thank you.
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢。还有其他人发言吗?
WARREN BUFFETTThank you. We have some more speakers there?
现场股东巴菲特先生,芒格先生。我叫杰斐逊·利利,是伯克希尔的长期股东。我个人认为,前两位发言者才是全球变暖问题中的热空气,我们——(掌声)——我们不应该监管伯克希尔·哈撒韦,强迫它进行碳披露或制定其他愚蠢的规则。如果各个企业的经理们自己选择这么做,那是可以的,但把这种全球变暖的伪宗教拿来试图监管伯克希尔·哈撒韦是完全不合适的。你们自己做得很好。(掌声)
AUDIENCE MEMBERMr. Buffett, Mr. Munger. My name is Jefferson Lilly (PH), a long-term Berkshire shareholder. It's my personal opinion that it's the previous two speakers that are the hot air in the problem around global warming, and that we — (applause) — that we not regulate Berkshire Hathaway to force it to have carbon disclosure or other silly rules. It's fine if the managers of the individual businesses choose to do that on their own, but it's completely inappropriate to bring this false religion of global warming to try and regulate Berkshire Hathaway. You guys are doing a great job on your own. (Applause)
沃伦·巴菲特还有其他人发言吗?
WARREN BUFFETTAre there any other speakers there that —?
现场股东芒格先生,沃伦·巴菲特。我只想说一件事,我认为这非常重要。伯克希尔·哈撒韦可以成为环境领域的领导者。我支持透明度,我知道这两位先生也支持,还有约翰·杜尔,他对环境充满热情,我知道如果他今天在这里,也会有和这两位先生同样的想法。作为美国公民,关心环境很重要。不要继续污染环境。我百分之百支持这两位先生。
AUDIENCE MEMBERMr. Munger and Warren Buffett. I would just like to say one thing, which I think is really important. Berkshire Hathaway can be a leader in the environment. And I'm for transparency, as I know these two gentlemen are, and John Doerr, who is very passionate about the environment, and I know if he was here today, he would have the same sentiments as these two gentlemen. And it's important that as American citizens, we care about the environment. And not keep polluting the environment. And I'm with these two gentlemen 100 percent.
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢。(掌声)还有其他人没有发言吗?
WARREN BUFFETTThank you. (Applause) Do we have any others that haven't spoken?
现场股东有。我叫埃里克·什利姆。我不支持,所以我反对这项动议。我认为伯克希尔·哈撒韦在清洁环保、对环境负责方面享有很好的声誉。我认为没有人会说巴菲特先生或芒格先生不关心环境。我想大多数人都关心环境。但这并不意味着我们应该告诉巴菲特先生和芒格先生,或者任何首席执行官,如何经营他们的业务。你们非常关心伯克希尔的声誉。如果伯克希尔的子公司到处污染海洋和池塘,破坏在各个城镇的声誉,我想巴菲特或芒格也不会太高兴。所以,不主张去监管、告诉别人如何经营业务,并不代表不关心环境。让我们自愿去做事,赚钱,同时负责任。最终,这才是制胜之道。谢谢。
AUDIENCE MEMBERYes. My name is Eric Shlime (PH). I am not for this, so against the motion. I think Berkshire Hathaway has a pretty good reputation at being clean, being environmentally responsible. I don’t think anyone is saying that either Mr. Buffett or Mr. Munger is somehow — doesn't care about the environment. I think most people care about the environment. But it doesn't mean that we should for Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger, or any of the CEOs, to tell them how to run their business. You guys care a lot about Berkshire's reputation. If Berkshire's subsidiaries are just polluting oceans and ponds and destroying the reputation in different towns and cities, I don’t think that would be too cool with either Buffett or Munger. So, doesn’t mean you don’t care about the environment just because you're not going to somehow regulate and tell other people how to run their business. Let's just do things voluntarily, do things to make money, and be responsible. At the end of the day, that's what wins. Thank you.
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢。(掌声)还有其他人吗?
WARREN BUFFETTThank you. (Applause) Anyone additional?
现场股东是的,我叫拉里·多斯,我支持这项决议。我认为没有人说你们不是具有高度诚信的绅士。但这是一个关乎真金白银的问题。美国环保署正在发布新规,要求对温室气体排放进行更严格的监管。所以,我们实际上是从一个拥有保险控股的集团公司的角度来看待这个问题,而承担巨大成本的正是保险公司。因此,我非常期待你们对此的看法。谢谢。
AUDIENCE MEMBERYeah, my name's Larry Dorrs (PH) and I support this resolution. I don’t think anybody is saying anything other than you're gentlemen of great integrity. But this is a dollars and cents issue. And the EPA is releasing new rules that are calling for more regulation of greenhouse gas emissions. So this — you know, we're really approaching this from a point of view of a conglomerate that has insurance holdings, and it really is insurance companies that are bearing the great costs. So I'm looking very much forward to your point of view on this. Thank you.
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢。还有其他人吗?
WARREN BUFFETTThank you. Anyone else?
现场股东是的,谢谢。大卫·休斯,一位股东。我的看法是,这是正确的做法,而且我认为作为一个组织,在被强制要求之前主动去做是有道理的。如果这给了你们按照自己的方式、以你们认为合适的方式制定规则的权力,那么我认为这会更加强有力,并且开创一个先例,就像伯克希尔过去所做的那样,所以我支持这项决议。
AUDIENCE MEMBERYes, thank you. David Hughes (PH), a shareholder. It's my opinion that this is the right thing to do and I think that it makes sense to do it, as an organization, prior to being forced to do it. And if this gives you the tools to set the rules your way, as you see fit, then I think that's far more powerful and sets a precedent, as Berkshire has done in the past, so I am for the resolution.
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢。(零散掌声)还有其他人吗?
WARREN BUFFETTThank you. (Scattered applause) Anyone additional?
现场股东大家好。我叫托马斯·丹肯伯特尔,我的背景是生物化学,我对环境非常有热情,我认为伯克希尔努力成为领导者非常重要,所以我非常支持这项提案。
AUDIENCE MEMBERHello. My name is Thomas Dankenburter (PH) and my background was in biochemistry, and I'm very passionate about the environment, and I think it's very important for Berkshire to work to be a leader, and so I'm very much in support of this proposition.
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢。(零散掌声)还有人在那边吗?
WARREN BUFFETTThank you. (Scattered applause) Got somebody else there?
现场股东嗨。我叫莎拉·克利夫兰,来自俄勒冈州波特兰市。我也想发声支持这项决议,我认为这无关对错,而是关于审视风险和机会的意愿,也是关于伯克希尔·哈撒韦成为领导者,并与子公司就具体可能性进行合作。
AUDIENCE MEMBERHi. My name is Sarah Cleveland. I'm from Portland, Oregon. I want to just also put a voice in favor of this resolution, and I think it's not about rights or wrong. It's about a willingness to take a look at risks and opportunities. And also for Berkshire Hathaway to be a leader. And also work with the subsidiary companies on specific possibilities.
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢。(零散掌声)
WARREN BUFFETTThank you. (Scattered applause)
现场股东嗨。
AUDIENCE MEMBERHi.
沃伦·巴菲特你说吧。
WARREN BUFFETTYou’re on.
现场股东我叫萨姆·罗伊(Sam Roy)。这是我第一次参加股东大会。芒格先生和巴菲特先生,我对你们经营企业的方式深感钦佩,但我认为你们也应该关心环境。我不知道我们是否应该强加一条路线,但至少你们可以通过自身行动,影响本地企业的经营方式,以及所有业务的对外呈现。毫无疑问,我们应当尽一切可能不去污染那些一旦污染便无法逆转的空气。这并不是空谈,而是我非常热衷的一件事。你们在环境问题上可以大有作为,但如果现在不担起责任,我们都不知道会给子孙后代留下什么后果。我恳请你们对此进行全面调查,而且我相信你们会这样做。感谢你们给我这个机会。
AUDIENCE MEMBERMy name is Sam Roy (PH). This is my first meeting. Mr. Munger and Warren Buffett, I'm so impressed how you run your business, but I think you will care for the environment as well. I don't know whether we should impose a route, but at least you will, by your act, how the local businesses are run, and all the operating goes out and appears, and there is no question that we do everything possibly that we never pollute the air that cannot be changed. It is not hot air, but it is something I'm very passionate about. You can do anything with your environmental, but if you are not taking charge right now, we don't know what the implications would be for our kids and grandkids. I request you give it total investigation, and I think you will do that. Thank you for this opportunity.
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢。(零散掌声)
WARREN BUFFETTThank you. (Scattered applause)
现场股东是的,巴菲特先生、芒格先生,我叫鲍勃·斯坦(Bob Stein),是一名注册专业工程师,也是伯克希尔的股东,我有几点看法。第一,我想我们都支持切实有力的环境保护。但在此之前——环保署(EPA)在温室气体问题上依据的科学未必可靠,也未必最符合伯克希尔·哈撒韦股东的利益。另外,环保署提出的所有东西均不切实际,并给美国在全球工业市场中的竞争力造成了很大问题。谢谢。
AUDIENCE MEMBERYes. Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger, my name is Bob Stein (PH). I'm a registered, professional engineer, and I have a couple comments, and I'm a Berkshire stockholder. One, I think we all support very sound environmental protection. But the science before this — that's being used by EPA for greenhouse gases is not necessarily sound, and is not necessarily in the best interests of Berkshire Hathaway shareholders. Also, everything that the EPA has proposed is not practical and has caused a lot of problems making U.S. competitive in the world industrial market. Thank you.
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢。(零散掌声)
WARREN BUFFETTThank you. (Scattered applause)
现场股东杰森·邦(Jason Bang),来自加州帕洛阿尔托。对我来说,这个问题很有意思的一点,是它确实值得人们投入那份热情。在科学问题上,我其实与许多人的立场一致。我担心的倒不一定是伯克希尔是否同意该动议——我本人其实反对它——而是伯克希尔旗下的企业即将帮助传播当前事实背后的真实科学认知,帮助美国公众更好地理解,从而也能推动变革,而不是让所有改变都只发生在管理层层面。
AUDIENCE MEMBERJason Bang (PH), Palo Alto, California. For me, one thing that's been very interesting about the issue is that it is something that deserves the passion that people bring to it. And I actually side with many of these people on the science of the issue. What concerns me is, not necessarily that Berkshire agrees to the motion, I'm actually against it, but that the enterprises under Berkshire are about to help evangelize the true science behind what's actually going on and help the American public get a better understanding, so they can also bring about change, rather than have it all occur from the executive level.
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢。
WARREN BUFFETTThank you.
现场股东下午好。我叫比尔·金瑟(Bill Guenther)。我是一名来自佛蒙特州纽芬的股东。我在家乡做州林业员,我想对那些不相信全球变暖是现实的人说,我希望你们能跟着我在树林里走一走。它确实是现实。我支持这项决议,希望其他股东也觉得它足够重要,能通过它。谢谢。
AUDIENCE MEMBERGood afternoon. My name is Bill Guenther. I'm a shareholder from Newfane, Vermont. I work as a state forester back home and I want to say for folks that don’t believe global warming is reality, I wish you would follow me around in the woods. It definitely is. I want to support this resolution and I hope that the rest of the shareholders will feel it important enough to see it through. Thank you.
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢。(零散掌声)
WARREN BUFFETTThank you. (Scattered applause)
现场股东下午好。我是(听不清)。我关心能源。我比任何人都更关心能源和环境,因为我现在仍在研究能源和环境问题。但我确实相信私营部门的力量,相信自由市场的力量。我认为将股东资源用于这个问题不是你们的责任。这不是你们的专长。我个人在提供(听不清)来进行环境倡导方面,能比你们做得更好。所以实际上,我反对这项决议。谢谢。
AUDIENCE MEMBERGood afternoon. I'm (inaudible). I care about energy. I care about energy and environment more than anybody else because I'm currently still studying energy and environment issues. But I truly believe the power of private sector, the power of free markets. And I think it's not your responsibility to put the resources of the shareholder for this issue. It's not your expertise. I can personally do a better job to provide (inaudible) to do environmental advocacy than you do. So actually, against this resolution. Thank you.
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢。(零散掌声)
WARREN BUFFETTThank you. (Scattered applause)
现场股东对不起,我有个朋友想说点什么。我可以翻译。(离麦克风说话)好。他说太阳能电池板的发展对中国有很大影响。问题——他还认为,实际上,伯克希尔应该做点什么,也应该考虑其影响。
AUDIENCE MEMBERSorry, I have a friend to say something. I can translate it. (OFF-MICROPHONE SPEAKING) OK. He says the development of the solar panel has great impact on China. And the question — and he also thinks that, actually, Berkshire should do something, as should think about the implication of that.
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢。(零散掌声)好。哎呀,我们还有一个。
WARREN BUFFETTThank you. (Scattered applause) OK. Whoops, we have one more.
现场股东嗨,我是凯文·汤普森(Kevin Thompson,音)。我是一名股东。我支持该动议。我是一名职业工程师,在一家石油公司工作。当我们开始关注温室气体排放时,我们发现,原以为会给公司增加成本的事情,实际上反而为公司创造了更多收入。这些故事通常不为人知,但确实存在。我建议你们去了解一下,因为实际上,你们可能正在忽视的东西,或许本身就是股东的收入。谢谢。
AUDIENCE MEMBERHi, I'm Kevin Thompson (PH). I'm a shareholder. I'm for the motion. I am a career engineer that works with an oil company. And what we found when we started looking at greenhouse gas emissions was that what we thought was going to end up costing the company more money actually created more revenue for the company. And those are some of the stories that generally don't get told, but they are out there. And I would recommend that you take a look at it, because in actuality, what you may be dismissing may actually be revenue for your shareholders. Thank you.
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢。(零散掌声)
WARREN BUFFETTThank you. (Scattered applause)
现场股东你好,巴菲特先生。我是迈克,来自(听不清)。显然,砍伐亚马逊森林和烧点煤炭之间很难划清界限。所以有时候你可以放弃一点,但确实不能放弃太多。这就是为什么我不支持这项动议。
AUDIENCE MEMBERHello, Mr. Buffett. I'm Mike from (inaudible) and there's obviously a fine line between, like, cutting down the Amazon forest and, like, just burning some coal. So sometimes you can give up a little but you can't really give up that much. So that's why I don’t support the motion.
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢。(零散掌声)
WARREN BUFFETTThank you. (Scattered applause)
现场股东不客气。
AUDIENCE MEMBERYou’re welcome.
会议官员似乎没有进一步的评论了。
MEETING OFFICIALThere do not appear to be any further comments.
沃伦·巴菲特好,谢谢。(掌声)这就是伯克希尔式的民主。刚才提出了几个问题。关于重大信息或重大风险,就伯克希尔整体而言,具体到我们的保险业务,我们每年在 10-K 报告中都会逐项列明风险。依我个人判断,就我们的保险业务而言,这个动议不会给伯克希尔保险业务带来重大风险。最后一位先生提到,假如我们遵循该动议,伯克希尔甚至可能因此变得更赚钱。讽刺的是,如果完全由我们自己决定,他说得很可能没错,但仅拿我们电力公用事业业务所在的三个主要州来说——爱荷华、犹他和俄勒冈,我们在那里服务近 200 万客户,其他州也一样——我们在这三个州的公用事业委员会监管要求下运营,每个委员会都制定了各自的运营规则,而我们最终都得遵守。比方说,如果我们单方面决定关停大量燃煤发电,监管方面会要求我们在更短年限内对这些电厂折旧,这不会转化为伯克希尔内部的成本,而是会转化为当地更高的电价。我们有权获得投资回报,折旧越快,为了达到允许的回报率,电价就越高。所以,刚才就有位来自俄勒冈的女士发了言。我们任何单方面行动的负担——况且没有公用事业委员会批准我们也根本做不了——最终都会落到客户头上。实际上,加速折旧的金额我们确实能收回来,而且我们很可能在其他发电设施上获得更大的投资额,并能就此取得允许回报。但核心问题在于,伯克希尔股东并不会最终承担成本,最终买单的是这些州里的电价或者说电力用户。如此重大判断,理应交由各州的公用事业委员会来做出。他们无论做出什么决定,我们都会遵从。毋庸置疑,随着时间的推移,就像我们在爱荷华讲到的风电那样,这个国家的发电结构必定会向不同方向转变。如我之前所说,我个人长期倾向增加核能的比重,但这需要同时由州级,并在某些方面由国家层面来决定。所以,我们的建议是投票否决这项动议。我认为现在可以就这项动议付诸表决了。如有股东现场亲自投票,现在请就本项动议在选票上做出标记,并将选票交给选举监察员。阿米克小姐,你准备好后,可以开始报告了吗?
WARREN BUFFETTOK, thank you. (Applause) Democracy in action at Berkshire. The — a couple of questions that were raised. In terms of material information, or material risks, in respect to Berkshire and specifically to our insurance operation, annually in the 10-K, there's a recitation of risk. And, in my own opinion, in terms of our insurance operation, this question does not pose material risk to Berkshire's insurance operations. The question one gentleman, toward the end, mentioned the fact that it might even be more profitable for Berkshire, in terms of what might happen if we followed the motion. Ironically, he could well be right if it were in our determination, but just take our three major states in electric utility operation, where we serve almost two million customers, Iowa, Utah, and Oregon, but it's true of other states as well. We operate under the dictates of the utility commissions in those three states, all of which — or each of which — sets their own rules regarding operation, and each of which we end up obeying. If we were to unilaterally, for example, decide to close down significant coal generation, we would be told to depreciate those plants over a shorter period, and that would translate, not in the cost to Berkshire, it would translate into higher rates for electricity there. We are entitled to a return on our investment and the faster the depreciation, the higher the rates have to be in order to achieve allowed returns. So there was a woman from Oregon speaking, for example. And the burden of any unilateral attempt by us — and we couldn’t do it without the approval of the utility commissions — but the burden would fall on customers. And it is true, actually, that we would recoup accelerated depreciation and we would probably have a much larger investment on which we would be allowed a return in other generating facilities. But this is a question — this is not something that the stockholders of Berkshire end up incurring the costs of. It's something that the rate, or the users of electricity in these various states, will pay for. And that judgment, quite properly, should be made by the public utility commissions of those various states. And whatever they decide, you know, we will follow. And over time, there's no question, just like we've talked about our wind generation in Iowa, this country will move toward a different composition of electricity generation. And as I stated earlier, I personally favor more nuclear over time, but that will be determined both at the state level, and in some ways, at the national level. So it's our recommendation that the motion be voted down. And I think the motion is now ready to be acted upon. If there are any shareholders voting in person, they should now mark their ballots on the motion and allow the ballot to be delivered to the inspector of elections. Miss Amick, when you are ready you may give your report?
贝基·阿米克我的报告已经备好。根据截至上周四晚间收到的代理委托书,代理持有人的投票结果为:67,733 票赞成该动议,608,576 票反对该动议。由于反对该动议的票数已超过所有已发行 A 类和 B 类股票表决权的半数,本动议未获通过。根据特拉华州法律要求的精确计票证明,将交给秘书,与本次会议记录一并存档。
BECKI AMICKMy report is ready. The ballot of the proxyholders in response to proxies that were received through last Thursday evening cast 67,733 votes for the motion, and 608,576 votes against the motion. As the number of votes against the motion exceeds a majority of the number of votes of all Class A and Class B shares outstanding, the motion has failed. The certification required by Delaware law of the precise count of the votes will be given to the secretary to be placed with the minutes of this meeting.
沃伦·巴菲特谢谢你,阿米克小姐。该提案未通过。
WARREN BUFFETTThank you, Miss Amick. The proposal fails.
正式会议休会
Formal meeting adjourns
沃伦·巴菲特休会前,在座各位还有任何其他事务需要交由本次会议讨论吗?如果没有,我请斯科特先生向会议提出动议。
WARREN BUFFETTDoes anyone have any further business to come before this meeting before we adjourn? If not, I recognize Mr. Scott to place a motion before the meeting.
沃尔特·斯科特我提议本次会议休会。
WALTER SCOTTI move this meeting be adjourned.
沃伦·巴菲特有人附议吗?
WARREN BUFFETTIs there a second?
现场人士我附议。
VOICEI second it.
沃伦·巴菲特休会动议已提出并获附议。我们将进行口头表决。有人需要讨论吗?如果没有,所有赞成的请说“赞成”。所有反对的请说“反对”。
WARREN BUFFETTA motion to adjourn has been made and seconded. We will vote by voice. Is there any discussion? If not, all in favor say aye. All opposed say no.