2018 年股东大会 · 下午场

2018-05-05 · 原文约 24350 词
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感谢会议组织者梅丽莎·夏皮罗

Thanks to meeting organizer Melissa Shapiro

沃伦·巴菲特好。过去几年,我们有一位出色的女士,凯莉·索娃(Carrie Sova),把这次会议办得滴水不漏。几周前她刚生了第三个孩子,并且在那之前——上次会议一结束她就决定,当妈妈将是她的全职工作。今年,我们又一切顺利,用不着我操心,没出一点纰漏。我想请梅丽莎·夏皮罗站起来。我们给她打一束追光。(掌声)我真不敢相信,她是怎么做到的。实在——实在太了不起了。我是说,我就告诉她日期,然后我能帮上的也就这些了——(笑)——后面的事就全由她来了。所以,梅丽莎,谢谢你。好,我想我们接下来去十号台,我们会继续到 3:30。然后休息 15 分钟,3:45 正式召开股东大会。

WARREN BUFFETTOK. Last year, for several years, we had a wonderful woman who carried this meeting off without a hitch, Carrie Sova. And she just had her third child here about a few weeks ago, and decided that — she decided right after the last meeting that that was going to be her full-time occupation. And this year, again, we've had everything carried off without me having to do anything, without a hitch. And I would just like to have Melissa Shapiro stand up. And we'll get a spotlight on her. (Applause) I can't believe it, how she does it. It's just been — it’s remarkable. I mean, we — I just tell her the date and then that's all the help I am — (laughs) — and it goes on from there. So, Melissa, thank you. OK, I think we next go to station ten, and we will continue until 3:30. Then we'll take a 15-minute break, and at 3:45 we'll convene the actual annual meeting.

伯克希尔为什么不买微软股票

Why Berkshire won't be buying Microsoft stock

沃伦·巴菲特十号台?

WARREN BUFFETTStation 10?

现场股东嗨,我是特蕾莎·卢卡辛斯基(音)。我来自内布拉斯加州奥马哈。我想问一个关于微软的问题。您通过买入苹果进入了科技领域。又有比尔·盖茨先生在董事会。我就纳闷为什么您从来没买过微软。

AUDIENCE MEMBERHi, I'm Theresa Lukasinski (PH). I'm from Omaha, Nebraska. And I have a question about Microsoft. You have gotten into the tech world with buying Apple. You have Mr. [Bill] Gates there. I'm just wondering why you've never bought Microsoft.

沃伦·巴菲特这个嘛——(笑声)——早些年,答案很清楚,就是犯蠢。但是——(笑声)自从比尔——尤其是比尔加入董事会后,但甚至在那之前,因为我们的友谊,伯克希尔去买微软就是个错误。因为如果一周后、一个月后发生了什么,比如他们盈利超预期,或者做了一笔收购——任何事——比尔和我都会——虽然不公正,但——会成为含沙射影和指控的靶子,甚至,可能有人会说,他私下跟我透露了什么,或者反过来。我避开——我试着彻底避开几样东西,纯粹是因为人们会推论我们可能聊过——我可能跟某人聊过什么。所以我告诉过特德[·韦施勒]和托德[·库姆斯]他们,有些东西就是不能碰,因为如果我们买完之后马上就有好消息,会有很多人不信我们的说辞。当然,我们——要大量买进股票,可能需要六个月来建仓或者诸如此类。我们只是没这个必要。但这点再加上我的犯蠢,可让我们少赚了很多钱。(笑)这是一个很——很好的问题,我觉得这个答案说得通。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTWell — (laughter) — in the earlier years, it's very clear it’s — the answer’s stupidity. But the — (Laughter) Since Bill has — particularly since Bill has joined the board, but even earlier than that because of our friendship, it would be — it just would be a mistake for Berkshire to buy Microsoft. Because if something happened a week later, a month later, in terms of them having better earnings than expected, or making an acquisition — anything — both Bill and I would — incorrectly, but — would be a target of suggestions and accusations, perhaps even, that somehow he had told me something or vice versa. I stay away from — I try to stay away from a few things just totally because the inference would be drawn that we might have talked — that I might have talked to somebody about something. So I've told the fellows, Ted [Weschler] and Todd [Combs] for example, that there are just a few things that are off the list because there would be a lot of people who wouldn't believe us if something good immediately happened after we bought it. And of course, we — to buy a lot of stock, it can take six months to buy it or something of the sort. We just don't need it. But both that and my stupidity have cost us a lot of money. (Laughs) It's a very — it’s a good question, and I think the answer makes sense. Charlie?

查理·芒格嗯,神学上讲,迟来的皈依总比不皈依强——(笑声)——你可是长进多了。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, it’s part of theology that a late conversion is better than never — (laughter) — and you’ve greatly improved yourself. (Laughter)

“历经这一切……美国确实、切实在往前走”

"Through it all … America really, really moves ahead"

沃伦·巴菲特贝基。(笑)

WARREN BUFFETTBecky. (Laughs)

贝基·奎克好,这个问题来自戴夫·谢恩(音)。他问:“沃伦,你是美国政治体系、金融体系和每一位美国人的坚定信徒。你说过,不管谁当总统,经济和美国消费者长期都会继续繁荣。话虽如此,你认为这个国家的人今天比 50 年前更分裂吗?还是只是社交媒体和媒体普遍把这种分裂夸大了?如果你确实认为分裂加大了,你有什么智慧之言可能有助于弥补?”

BECKY QUICKAll right, this question comes from Dave Shane (PH). He says, "Warren, you are a big believer in the U.S. political system, the financial system, and in every American. "You've said that regardless of who is president, the economy and the U.S. consumer will continue to prosper over the long run. All that said, do you believe that people in this country are more divided today than 50 years ago? "Or is it just social media, and media in general, that blows this divide out of proportion? And if you do believe the divide has grown, what words of wisdom do you have to possibly help remedy it?"

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我想说。我这一生中,人们多次觉得这个国家比以往任何时候都分裂。我也经历过一些时期,我认识并敬佩的人认为,因为另一个党派掌权,就再也不会有下一次选举了。宪法会——我什么说法都听过。现在,有意思的是这份 1942 年的报纸。从那时起到现在,美国已经经历了 14 位总统,仅仅从我 11 岁初入股市算起,我就经历了美国全部 44 位总统中的 14 位。现在他们管特朗普叫第 45 任,但把格罗弗·克利夫兰算了两次,所以美国实际上只有 44 位总统。而这 44 位中的 14 位,就出现在 1 万美元变成 5100 万美元的这段时期里。其中 7 位是共和党人,7 位是民主党人。一位被刺杀,一位在压力下辞职。它行得通,你知道。如果——如果一开始你告诉我,会有古巴导弹危机,会有核武器,会有 2008 年的恐慌——金融危机——会有很多次衰退,会有 60 年代末因国家分裂而起的街头战争,你会说:“你见鬼了还买什么股票?”而历经这一切,美国——跌跌撞撞——但美国确实、切实在往前走。而我们总是——我们挺过了内战。我是说,我——真不愿去想非得用那种方式。但这个国家,在我不到三辈子的时间里——如果你回溯我三辈子的时光,我想大概是回溯 263 年,那时候托马斯·杰斐逊才 12 岁。这才三代人而已——当时这里什么都没有。你们今天从各地飞到奥马哈,飞越的这个国家,有超过 7500 万套自有住房,2.6 亿辆车,还有一流的大学、医疗系统,一切应有尽有。这一切,在我不到三辈子的时间里,全都是净增出来的。所以——而且从我买第一只股票起,这些事就一直在发生。这个国家确实、切实行得通。它永远会有大量分歧,每次选举后都会有人觉得世界末日到了,“怎么会发生这种事?”我还记得 1952 年,我未来的岳父,在他女儿和我结婚前想跟我谈谈。于是我有些不情愿地坐下来,他说:“沃伦,”他说,“我只想告诉你一件事。”他说:“你会失败的。”他说——(笑声)——“民主党人要上台了,”你知道,“他们会接管这个国家。你会失败,但别觉得有责任,因为那不是你的错。”他想让我免于一种负罪感,好像他女儿要是快饿死了,那会是我的错。而——(笑声)——我一直在买股票,一直做得还越来越好。但是——而且如果共和党人当政,那就没事,我做得不错也是托他们的福。如果他们不在位,那就完了,一切都会烟消云散什么的。我是说,这些年来我见过太多美国公众舆论。我见过太多媒体评论。我见过各种头条。当你把这一切看下来,这个国家的 GDP 人均——人均 GDP——是我出生时的 6 倍。一个人的一生,六比一的变化。在座的每一个人,在多个方面,都比老约翰·D·洛克菲勒活得好,他可是我早年间全世界最富有的人。我们所有人都活得比他当年能活的更好。所以这是一个非凡、非凡的国家,我们找到了某种——(掌声)——非常特别的东西。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, I would say this. Multiple times in my life, people have felt the country was more divided than ever. And I've gone through periods where people I knew and admired thought that, because the other party was in power, that there never would be another election. That the Constitution would — I've heard everything. Now, the interesting thing is this paper from 1942. Since then, there have been 14 American presidents, just since my young venture into the stock market at 11, I've lived under 14 of the 44 presidents the United States has had. Now, they call Trump 45, but they count Grover Cleveland twice, so there's really only been 44 presidents of the United States. And 14 of the 44 have been during this period when that $10,000 became 51 million. Seven have been Republicans, seven have been Democrats. One has been assassinated, one has resigned under pressure. It works, you know. It — if you'd told me at the start, you know, that you'd have a Cuban Missile Crisis, and you've have nuclear weapons, and you'd have a panic in 200[8] — a financial panic — and you'd have many recessions, and you'd have war in the streets in the late '60s from a divided country, you'd say, "Why the hell are you buying stocks?" And through it all, you know, America — in fits and starts — but America really, really moves ahead. And we are always — we survived the Civil War. I mean, it — I hate to think of having to do it that way. But this country, in only less than three of my lifetimes — If you go back three of my lifetimes, you go back 263 years, I guess, and Thomas Jefferson is 12 years old. And that’s just three — and there was nothing here. You know, you've flown in from all over to Omaha today, and you flew over a country with more than 75 million owner-occupied homes, and 260 million vehicles, and great universities, and medical systems, and everything. And it's all a net gain in less than three of my lifetimes. So — and we've had these events since I started buying my first stock. This country really, really works. And it always will have lots of disagreements, and after every election you'll have people feeling the world is coming to an end and, you know, "How could this happen?" And I remember my future father-in-law in 1952, he wanted to have a talk with me before his daughter and I got married. So kind of reluctantly I sat down with him, and he said, "Warren," he said, "there's just one thing I want to tell you." He said, "You're going to fail." He said — (laughter) — you know, "The Democrats are going to get in," you know, "they’re going to take over the country. And you're going to fail, but don't feel responsible for it because it's not your fault." And he wanted to absolve me from this feeling that, while his daughter was starving to death, it was my fault. And — (laughter) — I kept buying stocks and doing a little bit better all the time. And, but — And if the Republicans were in, it was OK, and it was because of them that I was doing well. And if they were out, forget it, it was all going to disappear and stuff. I mean, I've seen a lot of American public opinion over the years. I've seen a lot of media commentary. I've seen the headlines. And when you get all through with it, this country has six times the per capita GDP growth — the GDP per capita — that it had when I was born. One person's lifetime, six-for-one change. Everybody in this room, essentially, is living better in multiple ways, than John D. Rockefeller Sr. was, who was the richest person, you know, in the world at that — during my early years. And we're all living better than he could live. So this is a remarkable, remarkable country, and we found something — (applause) — very special.

查理·芒格(听不清)

CHARLIE MUNGER(Inaudible)

沃伦·巴菲特我很乐意成为今天在美国出生的一个婴儿。查理。好,查理,你来讲讲另一面。

WARREN BUFFETTI would love to be a baby being born in the United States today. Charlie. OK, Charlie, you give the other side of this.

查理·芒格嗯——(笑声)——人们总倾向于认为我们现在的政客比过去任何时期的都要糟糕得多。但我们往往会忘记过去的政客有多么糟糕。我能——(笑声)我记得一位著名参议员[罗曼·赫鲁斯卡]极其认真地主张,平庸的人应该在美国最高法院得到更多的代表席位。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell — (laughter) — there's a tendency to think that our present politicians are much worse than any we had in the past. But we tend to forget how awful our politicians were in the past. I can — (Laughter) I can remember a prominent senator [Roman Hruska] arguing with an absolute earnestness that mediocre people ought to have more representation on the United States Supreme Court.

沃伦·巴菲特是啊。说来也巧,他来自内布拉斯加。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. He came from Nebraska, incidentally.

查理·芒格没错。他来自内布拉斯加。(笑声)所以我们还没糟到那份上呢。

CHARLIE MUNGERHe did. He came from Nebraska. (Laughter) So we're not quite as bad as that yet.

沃伦·巴菲特是啊。他在众议院接了我爸的班。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. He succeeded my dad in the House of Representatives.

“我们在通用再保险的规模会大一些”

"We’ll have a somewhat larger operation at Gen Re"

沃伦·巴菲特好。加里。

WARREN BUFFETTOK. Gary.

加里·兰森是的,关于再保险。我知道我们过去聊过,再保险在未来十年可以说确实不像过去十年那么有吸引力了。但我觉得我们没具体聊过通用再保险。我今天早上看了 10-Q 报表,发现通用再保险增长不错。我知道管理层有些变动。我想你能不能给我们讲讲,公司里发生了什么,带来了这种增长和看起来的改善。

GARY RANSOMYes, on reinsurance. I know we've talked in the past about reinsurance not really being as attractive an industry in, say, the next ten years as the last ten. But I don't think we've talked specifically about General Re. And I looked this morning at the 10-Q and I see General Re has grown nicely. I know there's been some changes in the management. And I wondered if you could just give us a sense of what's going on at the company to bring about some of that growth and what looks like improvement.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,再保险业务——我不会说它现在比十年前更难做。但要是回到四五十年前,竞争还没那么惨烈,我就这么说吧。在通用再保险,塔德·蒙特罗斯(Tad Montross)为我们做得极为出色,现在退休了。我们现在由阿吉特[·贾恩]领导——此外还有卡拉·雷格尔(Kara Raiguel)——但在阿吉特领导下,这间公司的重心有所变化。很可能比以前更偏向增长导向。但我可以向你们保证,任何与阿吉特沾边的事,也都带着严格的承保纪律。正如你正确指出的,业务确实有所回升。而且我想你们会看到财产与意外险再保险业务有相当大的增长。而寿险再保险业务——这基本上是我们大规模从事寿险业务的唯一领域——自从我们接手以来增长非常显著,尤其在国际业务上。所以那部分,我喜欢。我认为我们将会在通用再保险拥有一个规模稍大一些的运营。不过,如你所知,我们参与再保险的方式多种多样。我们做那些巨额的一揽子交易。这就是我们今年净收入下降的原因。去年我们与 AIG 做了那笔 100 亿美元的交易,那是历史上最大的一笔。今年我们没有再做一单同样的。在我看来,五年后、十年后、二十年后,乃至五十年后,我们都会在再保险行业中。而且我们会拥有一些不寻常的优势,这些优势来源于我们的资本实力、我们对这项业务的态度,以及我们所拥有的人才。总的来说,我们的保险业务远超行业平均水平。我们有一些真正的瑰宝,外人几乎完全不了解。我们还拥有一个非常非常好的再保险业务,它比 GEICO 那样的业务波动性更大——GEICO 是每年都在稳步前进。但它将是伯克希尔的重要组成部分。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Well, the reinsurance business — I don't think I'd say that it's tougher than it was ten years ago. But you go to 40 or 50 years ago, it was not brutally competitive, I'll put it that way. And at Gen Re — Tad Montross, who did a fantastic job for us at Gen Re, retired. And we have under Ajit [Jain] — and then Kara [Raiguel] in addition — but under Ajit, the focus of the place has changed somewhat. And it probably is more growth oriented than before. But I can assure you that anything associated with Ajit is — also has underwriting discipline attached to it. But, I — there has, as you've correctly noticed, there's been some pick-up. And I think you actually will see the property-casualty reinsurance business grow a fair amount. And the life business — reinsurance business — and this is really the only place we do much in life — but that has grown very substantially ever since we took it over, particularly internationally. And so that part, I like. And we will have a somewhat — I think we’ll have a somewhat larger operation at Gen Re. But we have various methods, as you know, of being in reinsurance. We do these huge bulk deals. That's why our net revenues are down this year. We did that $10 billion deal with AIG, which was the biggest deal in history, last year. And we don't have a repeat of it this year. We will be in the reinsurance business five years from now, 10 years from now, 20 years from now, and 50 years from now, in my view. And we will have some unusual advantages that stem both from our capital position, our attitude toward the business, and the talent that we have. We have an — we have a way better than average insurance business, generally. We have some real gems that nobody really knows much about. And we have a very, very good reinsurance business that will be subject to more ups and downs than something like GEICO will be, which just moves ahead every year. But it will be an important part of Berkshire. Charlie?

查理·芒格对。我要说,任何白痴金融家都能轻易进入的那部分,已经变得艰难得多。那又怎么会不艰难呢?

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah. I would argue the part that any idiot financier can easily get into has gotten way tougher. And why wouldn't it?

沃伦·巴菲特查理是我替代我岳父的角色——(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTCharlie is my substitute for my father-in-law that was — (Laughter)

“我没法给你编个公式”

"I can't reduce that to a formula for you"

沃伦·巴菲特好,11 号站。

WARREN BUFFETTOK, Station 11.

现场股东嘿,沃伦。查理。再次感谢你们邀请我们、邀请我。我对你们感激不尽,真的感谢你们为我们所做的全部工作,以及你们用自己的原则树立的楷模榜样。谢谢。(掌声)查理,你曾提过,如果有机会——或者说,资本规模较小时也有同样的机会——你仍然会去寻找那些定价错误的股票机会。

AUDIENCE MEMBERHey, Warren. Charlie. Thank you again for having us and having me. I just can't thank you guys enough and appreciate you guys enough for the body of work that you guys have delivered to us and the exemplar example that you guys have set with your principles. Thank you. (Applause) Charlie, you've mentioned that, if given the chance — or the same chance with a smaller capital base — you would still look for mispriced stock opportunities.

查理·芒格当然。

CHARLIE MUNGEROf course.

现场股东那显然要通过我们称之为内在价值来判定——就是那个组织或公司的内在价值——也就是未来现金流的折现总和。你会不会用一套虚构的数据来演算,用数学原理来推导内在价值?我希望你能包含所考虑的关键指标的综合心智模型,以及对管理层的定量评估,还有对其行业的假设,以判断其盈利能力的持久性。还有,沃伦,同理。你是否也能用较大的资本基数,演示或说明一组算术题,并给出在资本基数从小变大时,那些方法是如何变化的实战教训?

AUDIENCE MEMBERAnd that would be determined through, obviously, what we've called the intrinsic value of the organization — or the company in question — an aggregate of the discounted future cash flows. Would you work the arithmetic using a fictional data set to illustrate the mathematical principia to determine an intrinsic value? And I hope you include the comprehensive mental model of the key metrics considered, and quantitative assessments of the management, and any assumptions of its industry to determine the durability of its earning power. And, Warren, same to that effect. Would you also demonstrate or illustrate an arithmetic problem set using, with a significant capital base, and provide the object lessons on how those have changed from a small to a large capital base?

查理·芒格嗯,我没法给你一个公式化的方法,因为我自己根本不用这一套。(笑声)我就是把所有因素混合在一起——(笑声)——我就是把所有因素混在一起,如果价值和价格之间的差距不够吸引人,我就去找别的。有时候它纯粹是定量的。比如,当 Costco 的市盈率大约在 12 或 13 倍时,我觉得那低得离谱,因为这家企业的竞争优势太强了,而且它极有可能持续越做越好。嗯,我没法给你编个公式。我喜欢它便宜的房地产。我喜欢它的竞争地位。我喜欢它的人事体系运作方式。我什么都喜欢。而且我认为,就算它当时是账面价值的三倍或别的什么,它仍然值更多。但这可不是什么公式,谁要是想要公式,就该回研究生院去。(笑声)他们会给你一堆不灵的公式。(掌声)

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I can't give you a formulaic approach because I don't use one. (Laughter) And I just mix all — (laughter) — I just mix all the factors and if the gap between value and price is not attractive, I go on to something else. And sometimes it's just quantitative. For instance, when Costco was selling at about 12 or 13 times earnings, I thought that was a ridiculously low value, just because the competitive strength of the business was so great and it was so likely to keep doing better and better. Well, I can't reduce that to a formula for you. I liked the cheap real estate. I liked the competitive position. I liked the way the personnel system worked. I liked everything about it. And I thought, even though it's three times book, or whatever it was then, that it's worth more. But that's not a formula that anybody — If you want a formula, you should go back to graduate school. (Laughter) They'll give you lots of formulas that won't work. (Applause)

沃伦·巴菲特这是我们在伯克希尔股东大会上,查理花了最长的时间才提到他更喜欢 Costco 而不是伯克希尔。(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTThis is the longest we've ever gone in a Berkshire meeting without Charlie saying that — getting to the point where he prefers Costco to Berkshire. (Laughter)

为什么看好苹果以及对苹果回购的看法

Why Apple and thoughts on Apple’s buybacks

沃伦·巴菲特好,安德鲁?

WARREN BUFFETTOK, Andrew?

安德鲁·罗斯·索金我们收到了一些关于苹果的问题。我把其中几个问题合在一起问。沃伦,你买入了 IBM 又卖出了它。你称赞过[亚马逊 CEO]杰夫·贝佐斯,却从未买入亚马逊。而你又在苹果上大幅加仓。你能跟我们讲讲苹果到底有什么特别之处吗?另外,考虑到你有时对回购持批评态度,你认为苹果是把 1000 亿美元花在回购上更好,还是像你通常偏好的那样,用来收购其他有生产力的企业更好?1000 亿美元可是一大笔钱。

ANDREW ROSS SORKINWe got a handful of questions relating to Apple. This is a bit of a mash-up of a couple of them. Warren, you have bought in and sold out of IBM. You have praised [Amazon CEO] Jeff Bezos but never bought Amazon. And you have doubled down on Apple. Can you tell us what it is about Apple? And given your sometimes critical views on buybacks, do you think Apple would do better spending a hundred billion dollars on buybacks, or buying other productive businesses the way you have generally preferred? A hundred billion dollars is a lot of money.

沃伦·巴菲特我以前也这么想。(笑声)苹果有一款极为出色的消费产品,这方面你比我懂得多得多。至于他们该不该回购股票——他们绝不该回购,除非他们认为股票成交价低于其内在价值。如果成交价确实低于内在价值,他们手头又有钱,而且没看到更具吸引力的收购对象,那他们就应该回购股票。我认为这很——因为我觉得,苹果要在 500 亿、1000 亿或 2000 亿美元的区间内找到能增厚价值的收购标的,是极其困难的。他们做了不少小规模收购。而且,不瞒你说,看到他们回购股票,我很高兴。我们持有——这么说吧,我们持有大约 2.5 亿股。而他们,我记得有 49.23 亿股左右的总股本。在心理上,你可以说我们拥有它 5%。但我琢磨着,随着时间的推移,我们可能会拥有 6% 或 7%,而这仅仅是因为他们回购了股票。我发现,当你拥有一款非凡的产品和生态系统,而且还有很多事可以做的时候,我很喜欢这个想法:让我们的 5%,或者不管多少,不花我们一分钱就增长到 6% 或 7%。我的意思是,这在其他很多情况下对我们都灵验过。但前提是,你必须有一款非常、非常、非常特别的产品,以及一个极其广阔——极其广阔的生态系统,而且产品黏性极高,诸如此类。他们不太可能找到 500 亿或 1000 亿美元规模的收购对象,能以勉强合理的价格成交,并且还能真正为这一体系锦上添花。他们说不定能找到,谁知道呢?但就我环顾四周来看,眼下我看不到任何标的,在他们必须支付的价格和所能得到的东西之间,能有多大意义。而我确实看到一项他们了如指掌的业务,在他们回购自家股票时,也许能、也许不能以有吸引力的价格买到。这还有待观察。顺带一提,有件事我一向觉得很有意思。人们常说,“嘿,你这不就是在为自己的持仓站台嘛”之类的话——从我们的立场出发,我们很乐意看到苹果股价下跌。他们会——唉,这么说吧。如果安德鲁、查理和我合伙做一门生意,价值 300 万美元,我们每人各占 100 万美元的权益。要是安德鲁提出以 80 万美元卖掉他那三分之一权益,而我们手头又有闲钱,我们会毫不犹豫地把它买下来。我是说,就这么简单。但人们在各种讨论中总是云里雾里——反过来,要是他开价 120 万美元,我们才不会付给他呢。(笑)这是很简单的算术,但在这些讨论里总被人抛之脑后。当然,就像我说的,[苹果 CEO]蒂姆·库克肯定懂简单的算术。他大概连极复杂的算术都能做。所以,我们非常赞成他们回购股票。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTI used to think so. (Laughter) The — Apple has a incredible consumer product which you understand a lot better than I do. Whether they should buy in their shares — they shouldn't buy in their shares at all, unless they think that they're selling for less than they're worth. And if they are selling for less then they're worth, and they have the money, and they don't see an acquisition that's even more attractive, they should buy in their shares. And I think that that’s very — Because I think it's extremely hard to find acquisitions that would be accretive to Apple that would be in the 50 or 100 billion, or $200 billion range. They do a lot of small acquisitions. And, you know, I'm delighted to see them repurchasing shares. We own — let's say we own 250 million or so shares. They have, I think, 4 billion, 923 million or something like that. And mentally, you can say we own 5 percent of it. But I figure with, you know, with the passage of a little time we may own 6 or 7 percent simply because they repurchase shares. And it — I find that if you’ve got an extraordinary product, and ecosystem, and there's lots to be done, I love the idea of having our 5 percent, or whatever it may be, grow to 6 or 7 percent without us laying out a dime. I mean, it's worked for us in many other situations. But you have to have some very, very, very special product, and — which has an enormous wide — enormously widespread ecosystem, and the product's extremely sticky, and all of that sort of thing. And they're not going to find 50 or a hundred billion dollar acquisitions that they can make at remotely a sensible price that really become additive to that. And they may find it, who knows? But there certainly, as I look around the horizon, I don't see anything that would make a lot of sense for them in terms of what they'd have to pay and what they would get. Whereas I do see a business that they know everything about, and where they may or may not be able to buy it at an attractive price when they repurchase their shares. That remains to be seen. Incidentally, that's one thing that I always enjoy. People say, "Well, you're talking your book," or something if you talk — From our standpoint, we would love to see Apple go down in price. They’re going to — well, just put it this way. If Andrew and Charlie and I were partners in a business that was worth $3 million so each of us had a million dollar interest in it, if Andrew offered to sell out his one-third interest at 800,000 and we had the money around, we'd jump at the chance to buy him out. I mean, it's so simple. But people get all lost — and if he'd wanted a million-two for it, we wouldn't pay it to him. (Laughs) It's very simple math, but it gets lost in all these discussions. And of course, like I say, [Apple CEO] Tim Cook could do simple math. And he could probably do very complicated math, too. So, we very much approve of them repurchasing shares. Charlie?

查理·芒格我认为,就美国整体而言,当公司一门心思扑出去收购别的公司时,它们往往在交易完成后,身价比原来还低。所以,我不认为美国企业能靠四处收购走出一条普遍适用的致富坦途。平均下来,走下坡路的居多,走上坡路的少。我认为,大量公司除了回购自己的股票,没什么更好的事可干,也没什么能比回购自己的股票更划算了。所以,我们对苹果会怎样,心里相当有数。要是在什么低价上真有标的可买,他们能买下来,那他们就算撞大运了。这事——我觉得世界没那么好混。我认为,这些公司之所以回购自家股票,是因为它们足够聪明,知道这对它们来说,比干别的什么都强。

CHARLIE MUNGERI think, generally speaking in America, when companies go out hell-bent to buy other companies, they do — they’re worth less after the transaction is made than they were before. So I don't think you have a general way to wealth for American corporations to go out and buy other corporations. Averaged out, it's a way down, not up. And I think that a great many places have nothing better to do than to buy in their own stock, and nothing as advantageous to do as they can — as buying in their own stock. So, I think we know pretty damn well what's going to happen to Apple. They'd be very lucky to — if there was something available at a low price that they could buy. It’s — I don't think the world’s that easy. I think that the reason these companies are buying their stock is that they're smart enough to know that it's better for them than anything else.

沃伦·巴菲特但这绝不意味着我们赞成每一次回购,完全不是。我的意思是,我们看到过——

WARREN BUFFETTAnd that does not mean we approve of every buyback, at all, though. I mean, we've seen —

查理·芒格不,不,不。我认为有些人回购仅仅是为了托住股价。那当然是昏了头,而且不道德。但撇开这一点不谈,就没问题。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERNo, no, no. I think some people just buy it to keep the stock up. And that, of course, is insane. And immoral. But apart from that, it's fine. (Laughter)

“我非常喜欢我们持有的美国运通”

"I like very much our holdings of American Express"

沃伦·巴菲特好,格雷格?

WARREN BUFFETTOK, Gregg?

格雷格·沃伦沃伦,如果我们回顾过去三到五年你的股权投资组合表现,其中部分最强业绩来自 Visa 和万事达卡,它们的回报是美国运通的三到四倍。遗憾的是,您对这两家公司(我们推测由托德[库姆斯]或泰德[韦施勒]持有)的投资,在过去五年里合计占股票持仓的比例不到 1%,而美国运通历来是前五大重仓股,平均占组合的 10%,近期接近 8%。这三家公司都受益于强大的网络效应和极具价值的品牌,伯克希尔是否有特殊原因,没有把 Visa 和万事达卡的持仓提高到更具分量的水平,尤其是在美国运通苦苦挣扎的那几年?归根结底,您已经展现出愿意同时持有同行业几家公司的意愿,比如持有若干相互竞争的银行股,以及 2016 年底差不多以等额资金出手买下全部四家美国国内航空公司的股份。

GREGG WARRENWarren, if we look at the performance of your equity investment portfolio the last three to five years, some of the strongest performances come from Visa and Mastercard, which put up returns that are three to four times greater than American Express. Unfortunately, your holdings of the two names, which we assume were held by Todd [Combs] or Ted [Wechsler], have accounted for less than one percent of stock holdings on a combined basis the past five years, while American Express has tended to be a top-five holding, accounting for 10 percent of the portfolio, on average, and closer to 8 percent of late. Given that all three firms benefit from powerful network effects along with valuable brands, were there any particular reasons Berkshire did not ramp up its stakes in Visa and Mastercard to more meaningful levels, especially during those years when American Express was struggling? After all, you've shown a willingness to own several stocks from the same industry, holding shares in several competing banks, and buying stakes in all four domestic airlines in fairly equal amounts when you picked them up in late 2016.

沃伦·巴菲特是的。泰德和托德,或者他们中任意一位——我不具体说是哪一位——具体说是他们当中哪一位买了,或者其实他俩都买了 Visa 和万事达卡(Master Charge)——这些股票在他们各自的组合里都占了相当重的分量。他们持有这些股票,并不因为我们有美国运通的重仓投资而被禁止或受到任何限制。我本来也可以买。事后回头看,我本该买的。另一方面,我觉得美国运通做得极其出色,现在我们在不久之前可能还只占 12% 左右股份的一家公司里,持股超过了 17%。我们不花一分钱就做到了这一点,而且还没——你知道,这是一家在竞争极其激烈的领域里,仍然干得相当漂亮的公司,很多人都想把他们的客户抢走。但他们的客户比以往任何时候都多,客户花的钱也比以往任何时候都多。国际业务增长也在加快。中小企业渗透率表现优异。这真是一门相当好的生意。你知道,我们乐于拥有它。正如我所说,这完全不构成障碍,没阻止我去买万事达卡或 Visa。我当时要是像泰德或托德那么聪明,早就买了。(笑)查理?

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. When Ted and Todd, or either one of them — I won't get into which specifically — which one of them specifically — bought, or for that matter they could both have bought — Visa and Master Charge (Mastercard) — they were significant portions of their portfolio. And there was no embargo or anything on them owning those stocks because we had a big investment in American Express. And I could have bought them as well. And, looking back, I should have. On the other hand, I think American Express has done a fabulous job, and now we own 17 and a large fraction percent of a company that not that long ago we may have owned 12 percent. We’ve done it without spending a dime and without — you know, it's a company that has really done a fantastic job in a very competitive field where lots of people would love to take their customers away from them. But they have more customers than ever, and they're spending more money than ever. The customers are. And the international growth has accelerated. The small business penetration is terrific. It's really quite a business. And, you know, we love the fact we own it. Like I say, it didn't preclude me from, in any way, from buying Master Charge (Mastercard) or Visa. And if I had been as smart as Ted or Todd, I would have. (Laughs) Charlie?

查理·芒格唉,如果凡事都能回过头去看,那我们的选股成绩会比原来——好出一大截。但是——(笑声)——目前,我们在美国运通有大量持仓,而在支付处理商的地平线上,有一小片乌云,那就是中国的微信体系。所以说,并不是说远在天边完全没有一丝阴云——我对那片乌云有多要紧毫无概念,我觉得沃伦也一样不知道。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, we would have been a little — a lot better with all of our stock picking if we could do it in retrospect. But — (laughter) — at the time, we have a big position in American Express, and there is one tiny cloud on the horizon of the payments processors and that is the system of WeChat in China. And so it isn't as though there isn't a little cloud somewhere off in the — and I don't have the faintest idea how important that cloud is, and I don't think Warren does either.

沃伦·巴菲特对,对。支付在全球都是一件极其庞大的业务。各式各样的聪明人都在用不同办法试图改变支付格局。而且——

WARREN BUFFETTNo. No. Payments are a huge deal worldwide. And you've got all kinds of smart people working at various ways to change the payment arrangements. And —

查理·芒格来摧毁我们现在拥有的东西。

CHARLIE MUNGERTo destroy what we have now.

沃伦·巴菲特没错,没错。有些绝顶聪明的人,你也知道,我是——但是——他们也在建立一家公司。美国运通几年前做了一个决定,没有跟着别人去压到极低的竞价来留住 Costco 的业务。我认为——查理和我在这一点上看法有分歧——但我认为那是个聪明的决定。他不认为那是个聪明的决定。但我们俩中总有一个是对的。而且——(笑声)——到时候对的那位一定会提醒你,他才是对的。(笑声)但——你要是看看美国运通,它——它是一家相当出众的公司。我的意思是,你知道,去年他们用 Sapphire 卡来抢生意。人人都想要那摊子业务。支付方式正在演变。你可以在不同国家看到各种不同玩法。有很多人玩游戏规则,根据这张卡或那张卡的奖励之类来回切换,诸如此类。但同时也有一批——我认为有一大群体,美国运通为他们做了一些非常特别的事,他们也在不断巩固在这一群体中首屈一指的地位。他们在全美范围内都做得很成功。你会在第一季度看到——你已经看到了——你看,在英国、墨西哥、日本,以当地货币计算,都有 15% 或更高的增长。基数不算小,但也谈不上庞大,所以还有很大的拓展空间。中小企业渗透率也不错。贷款组合的表现,说真的,比几乎任何人都要远为出色。所以,我非常喜欢我们持有美国运通。上半年,由于会计准则变更,他们不得不把回购计划暂停了六个月。但我——他们已经宣布预计会恢复回购。而终有一天,我们甚至会,你知道,拥有美国运通更高的持股比例,而且在我看来,它会是一家规模更大的公司。我认为我们会做得相当不错。但就像查理说的,没人能确切知道支付——到底会如何演变。也没人能确切知道汽车行业会如何收场。我们所在的很多行业都是如此,我们以前也经历过。我们过去常买那些注定会失败的生意,比如纺织业、二流百货商店和加州的印花票。现在我们好歹只是直面一些确实困难重重的行业。所以,我们其实是往上走了一个台阶啊。(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTSure, sure. And you've got some very smart people that, you know, I am — the — but there — building a company. And American Express made a decision a few years ago not to bid as low as somebody else did to retain the Costco business. And I think — Charlie and I disagree on this — but I think it was a smart decision. He doesn't think it was a smart decision. But one of us will be right. And — (laughter) — and one of us will remind you that they were right. (Laughter) The — but if you look at American Express, it is — it's a remarkable company. I mean, you know, they came after them with Sapphire last year. People want that business. And payments are changing. And you can see in different countries different ways things are going on in that. And there are a lot of people that will play the game of gaming the system, and switch from one to another based on the rewards on this card or that, and all of that sort of thing. But there also is a — I think there's a very substantial group for which American Express does something very special, and they keep capitalizing on that premier position with that group. And they're doing it successfully around the country. And you’ll see in the first quarter — you've seen in the first quarter — you know, where in Britain, in Mexico, in Japan, you're seeing gains of 15 percent or better in local currencies. And the base is not tiny, but it's not huge, so there's a lot of room left to go in that. And the small business penetration is good. The loan portfolio has behaved sensationally compared to, really, just about anybody. So, I like very much our holdings of American Express. The first half, because of the accounting changes, they had to suspend their repurchase program for six months. But I — they've announced that they expect to renew it. And someday we’ll even, you know, we'll own a greater percentage of American Express and it will be a bigger company, in my opinion. And I think we'll do very well. But as Charlie says, nobody knows how payments is — for sure — comes out. And nobody knows how autos for sure come out. And there — that is true of a great many businesses we're in, and we've faced it before. We used to buy things that were certain failures, like textiles and second-rate department stores and trading stamps in California. Now we just face things that face real difficulty. So we're actually moving up the ladder. (Laughter)

资本密集型业务“够好了”

Capital-intensive businesses are "good enough"

沃伦·巴菲特好的,1 号站台。

WARREN BUFFETTOK, Station 1.

现场股东巴菲特先生,我叫达芙妮·科利尔·斯塔(音译)。我 8 岁,住在纽约市。我做股东两年了,这是我第二次参加股东大会。伯克希尔·哈撒韦赖以建立声誉的最佳投资,都是在资本效率非常高的业务上——(笑声)——比如可口可乐、喜诗糖果、美国运通和 GEICO。但最近,伯克希尔在几个需要巨额资本投入才能维持、而且只提供受监管的低回报率的业务上做了非常大的投资,比如——(笑声)——伯灵顿北方铁路。巴菲特先生,我想问您的问题是,您能解释一下为什么伯克希尔最近的大额投资偏离了您以前资本效率高的理念吗?还有,具体为什么您投资了伯灵顿北方,而不是买入像美国运通这样资本效率高的公司?(掌声)

AUDIENCE MEMBERMr. Buffett, my name is Daphne Collier Starr (PH). I'm eight years old and live in New York City. I've been a shareholder for two years and this is my second annual shareholders meeting. Berkshire Hathaway's best investments on which the company built its reputation have been in very capital-efficient businesses — (laughter) — such as Coke, See's Candy, American Express, and GEICO. But recently, Berkshire has made really big investments in a few businesses that require huge capital investments to maintain and that offer only a regulated low rate of return such as — (laughter) — Burlington Northern Railroad. My question to you, Mr. Buffett, is could you please explain why Berkshire's largest recent investments have been departed from your old capital-efficient philosophy? And why specifically have you invested Burlington Northern instead of buying a capital-efficient company like American Express? (Applause)

沃伦·巴菲特你要把我问死了,达芙妮。(笑声)是啊。

WARREN BUFFETTYou're killing me, Daphne. (Laughter) Yeah.

查理·芒格我当然庆幸她还不到 9 岁。

CHARLIE MUNGERI'm certainly glad she's not nine years old.

沃伦·巴菲特是啊。(笑声)我正坐在这想,明年我们该把六位小组成员里的哪一位换下来,把你放上去。(笑声)唉,我还以为自己 11 美元买城市服务公司股票时已经够厉害了呢。(笑)答案是,我们一直偏爱——永远偏爱那些能获得出色资本回报的企业,比如我们买入时的喜诗糖果,以及很多其他企业。而且,你也知道,美国运通的净资产回报率极其出色,而且已经持续了很长很长时间。我们买下伯灵顿——BNSF,伯灵顿北方——这件事,本质上意味着,我们没法再以我们认为合理的价格,把更多钱配置到轻资本业务里去了。于是我们就转向了资本更密集、但仍然是好业务的生意。不过,要是能运营一条没有火车、铁轨、隧道、桥梁等等这些东西的铁路,那该多好,对吧?我们在这些资本密集型业务上获得了不错的回报。我们买入它们时,价格大多都非常划算,买入之后它们也运营得很好。我们依然热爱那种占用资本极少、回报很高、能持续增长、而且只需要极少增量资本的生意。但我们手上现在有这么多钱,没法全都这样用出去。所以,作为次优选择——仍然是个好选择——答案是肯定的。它不如最优选择那么好。查理?

WARREN BUFEFTTYeah. (Laughter) I'm just sitting here thinking which of the six panelists we're going to bump next year and put you in. (Laughter) Well, I thought I was doing well when I bought that City Service at 11. (Laughs) The answer is that we have — we’d love — we always prefer the businesses that earn terrific returns on capital, like a See's Candy when we bought it or a good many of the businesses. And, we’ve — and, you know, American Express, you know, earns a terrific return on equity, and has for a very long time. The fact that we buy a Burlington — BNSF, Burlington Northern — means that, essentially, we can't get more money deployed in capital-light businesses at prices that make sense to us. And so we have gone into more capital-intensive businesses that are good businesses. But wouldn't it be wonderful if we could run the railroad without trains, and track, and tunnels, and bridges, and a few things? We get a decent return on the capital-intensive businesses. We bought most of them at very decent prices, and they've been run very well since we bought them. We still love a business that takes very little capital and earns high returns, and continues to grow, and requires very little incremental capital. We can't deploy as much money as we have in doing that. And so as the second-best choice, still a good choice, the answer is yes. It's not as good as the best choice. Charlie?

查理·芒格没错,我很欣赏这位年轻女士的追求。她本质上就是想在别人的销售额上收取版税。这当然是个极其出色的模式,要是人人都能做到这一点,那谁还干别的呀。我们之所以对我们的公用事业回报和铁路回报感到满意,是因为它们相当令人满意。我们——而且——相当令人满意。我倒希望我们再多两个像它们这样的业务。你不希望吗,沃伦?

CHARLIE MUNGERYes, I like the aspiration of that young lady. She basically wants her royalty on the other fellow's sales. And of course that's a very good model, and if everybody could do that, why, nobody would do anything else. The reason we're satisfied with our utility returns and our railroad returns is they're quite satisfactory. And we — and the — quite satisfactory. I wish we had two more just like them. Don't you, Warren?

沃伦·巴菲特当然希望。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah.

查理·芒格所以——

CHARLIE MUNGERSo —

沃伦·巴菲特绝对希望。

WARREN BUFFETTDefinitely.

查理·芒格所以答案是,它们已经足够好了,而你是在要求我们达到完美,比如如果希望我们把所有钱都投在可口可乐上,就得按它现在股价的 5% 左右买入,那才算完美。

CHARLIE MUNGERSo the answer is they're good enough, and you're asking us to get perfection if you would want us to have all our money in Coke at, say five percent of what it's now selling for.

沃伦·巴菲特对的。像苹果这样的生意,其实不需要多少资本。但是——所以,你得花很多钱去买那样的生意。而它们在卖的极少。答案是,当我们可以用合理价格买入那些能赚取高回报——极高净资产回报——的生意时,我们并没有为了买这些其他生意而放弃任何机会。所以说,它们并没有把别的好东西挤出牌桌。不过你绝对——绝对在我们的资本配置部门已经有一席之地了。(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. And a business like Apple really doesn't take much capital. But — so, you've got to spend a lot of money to buy businesses like that. Very few are for sale. And the answer is we have not foregone any opportunity to buy businesses that earn high returns — very high returns — on equity capital, when we could buy them at a sensible price, to buy these other businesses. So they haven't shoved anything else off the table. But you are — you definitely have a job in our capital allocation department. (Laughter)

巴菲特对报纸行业衰落速度未放缓感到“意外”

Buffett "surprised" rate of decline for newspapers hasn't moderated

沃伦·巴菲特好的,卡罗尔。

WARREN BUFFETTOK, Carol.

卡罗尔·卢米斯这个问题来自芝加哥的马克斯·泰勒(音译),它涉及伯克希尔持有的报纸。“巴菲特先生,您在 2012 年致股东的信中,有一节专门写到伯克希尔在过去一年里收购了 28 家报纸。从那以后,您就再没回到过报纸这个话题。但今年,在年报末尾,您公布了一份伯克希尔目前持有的报纸及其发行量的清单。我把这份清单与您五年前,也就是 2012 年底公布的那份作了对比。您肯定比谁都清楚,起初收购的 28 家报纸中,伯克希尔仍持有的那 26 家,发行量已大幅下滑。很多情况下降幅巨大,达到 30% 到将近 50%。我知道五年前您承认持有报纸存在风险,但您当时还是说:‘查理和我相信,那些为联系紧密的社区提供全面、可靠信息,并拥有明智互联网策略的报纸,将在很长一段时间内保持生命力。’快进到今天,假设您正在写伯克希尔在报纸业务上的经验,您会怎么说?”

CAROL LOOMISThis question is from Max Taylor (PH) of Chicago, and it concerns the newspapers that Berkshire owns. "In your 2012 letter to shareholders, Mr. Buffett, you had a section devoted to Berkshire's buying 28 newspapers during the year just past. Since then, you have not come back to the newspaper subject. "But this year, at the end of the annual report, you published a list of the newspapers Berkshire owns today, along with their circulation. I compared that list with the one you published five years ago at the end of 2012. "As you no doubt know better than anyone, the circulation of the 26 newspapers that Berkshire still owns, of the 28 originally bought, fell sharply. In many cases, by big amounts like 30 percent to almost 50 percent. "I know that five years ago, you acknowledged the risk in owning newspapers, but you still said, 'Charlie and I believe that papers delivering comprehensive and reliable information to tightly-bound communities, and having a sensible internet strategy, will remain viable for a long time.’ "Skip to today, and imagine that you are writing about Berkshire's experience with newspapers. What would you be saying?"

沃伦·巴菲特嗯。我会说——我忘了我当时对互联网策略用了什么修饰词了——但我想我说的是“明智”。问题出在——美国大概有 1,300 家日报,不久前还有 1,700 家——出在除了《华尔街日报》、《纽约时报》,现在大概还有《华盛顿邮报》,没有哪家报社做出了一款数字产品,能以任何真正有意义的方式,去替代纸质报纸在发行量与广告双双萎缩中流失的收入。你看看我们经营的社区,或者随便哪个别的报纸经营的社区,社区本身可能很繁荣。我们现在经济环境很景气。但所有这些报纸都在流失每日发行量,在流失周日版发行量,在流失街头零售量,所有街头零售量,在流失家庭投递量。这让我——过去五年里衰退的速度竟然没有放缓,这确实让我很意外。我们买入所有这些报纸时的价格都合理,所以这对伯克希尔的经济影响并不大。但我确实希望日报,真的,你看,能实现经济上的自给自足,因为这对社会十分重要。但我想说的是,这些趋势——我把那些发行量数字放进去,是因为我认为股东有权逐年看到实际发生的情况。这不仅仅是——全美 1,300 家报纸都在发生同样的事。即便在那些你以为可替代信息源不会太好的小镇,也同样发生。在每一个地方都发生。《华尔街日报》、《纽约时报》,或许还有《华盛顿邮报》,在数字世界拥有可行的经济模式,而在纸质世界它们大概率还会继续萎缩——我几乎可以肯定还会继续萎缩。但它们的数字世界将足够庞大——它们会足够成功——以至于在我看来,它们拥有可持续的商业模式。但考虑到从数字端获得的收入并没有形成重要的金钱意义上的成功,就很难看出纸质产品如何能长期生存下去。恐怕这就是全美 1,300 家报纸的真实处境。我们会继续寻找,看是否还有办法。但你得看看我们自己的经历,再看看其他所有人的经历。McClatchy 报业集团前些天出了财报,我想那家报纸——非常优秀——他们所在的城市也都很好——但广告收入下降了大概 17% 或 18%,发行量也一样。但这并非个例,业内每一家都是如此。我希望能给你一个更好的答案,但我给不出。我想说,这对伯克希尔的经济意义几乎可以忽略不计,但对社会的意义,我认为其实极为重大。而且,你知道,我希望我们能找到某种出路。我希望别人能找到出路,因为我们会照着学。但到目前为止,我们还没能做到这一点。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. I would say that — I forget the modifying word on internet strategy — but I think I said "sensible." The problem has been — about 1,300 daily newspapers in the United States — there were 1,700 not that long ago — is that no one except The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, and now probably The Washington Post has come up with a digital product that, really in any really significant way, will replace the revenue that is being lost as print newspapers lose both circulation and advertising. And if you look at the communities in which we operate, or the communities in which, you name it — other newspapers operate, the community could be prospering. We're in a prosperous economy presently. And all are losing daily circulation, they're losing Sunday circulation, they're losing street — all street sales, they're losing home-delivered. And it is — I've been surprised that the rate of decline has not moderated in the last five years. We bought all the papers at reasonable prices, so it is not of great economic consequence to Berkshire. But I would like to see daily newspapers, actually, you know, be economically viable, because of the importance to society. But I would say that the trends which — I put those circulation figures in there because I think the shareholder’s entitled to look, year-to-year, at what is happening. And it's not only — It’s happening to 1,300 newspapers throughout the United States. And it happens in small towns, where you would think that the alternative sources of information would not be that good. It happens every place. And The Journal, The Times, and probably The Post, have a viable economic model in the digital world, and probably will continue to shrink — I'm almost certain will continue to shrink — in the print world. But the digital world will be big enough that — and they'll be successful enough — so that they have, in my view, a sustainable business model. But it is very difficult to see, with the lack of success, in terms of important dollars arising from digital, it's difficult to see how the print product survives over time. And that’s — I'm afraid that's true of 1,300 papers in this country. And we'll keep looking to see if there is a way to do it. But you'd have to look at our experience, and look at the experience of everyone else’s. McClatchy newspapers came out the other day, you know, and I think that newspaper — which is very good — fine cities that they operate in — and advertising revenue is down something like 17 or 18 percent, and circulation. But it isn't just them, it's everybody in the business. And I wish I had a better answer for you, but I don't. I would say that the economic significance to Berkshire is almost negligible, but the significance to society, I think, actually is enormous. And, you know, I hope that we find something. I hope others find something because we'll copy it. But so far, we have not succeeded in that. Charlie?

查理·芒格嗯,衰退的速度比我们当初预想的要快。所以这算不上我们最出彩的经济预测。而且我觉得情况比这还要糟。我认为,在我们估算错了的程度上,我们之所以会算错,可能是因为我俩都热爱报纸,并且——我们一直认为报纸在我们的国家极其重要。这一份份地方小报的垄断经营权,往往掌握在行为端正的人手里,并且能影响当地政客。如果这些报纸消失了,我们会想念它们的。我们会非常非常想念。而且——

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, the decline was faster than we thought it was going to be. So it was not our finest bit of economic prediction. And I think it's even worse. I think, to the extent we miscalculated, we may have done it because we both love newspapers and are — and have considered them so important in our country. These little local newspaper monopolies tended to be owned by people who behaved well and tended to control the politicians. And we're going to miss these newspapers if they disappear. We're going to miss them terribly. And —

沃伦·巴菲特我想你或许可以接着说——

WARREN BUFFETTI think you may continue —

查理·芒格——我祈求上帝不要发生这种事,但数据很糟糕,沃伦。

CHARLIE MUNGER— I hope to God it doesn't happen, but the figures are not good, Warren.

沃伦·巴菲特不。确实不好。而且这不只是——你知道,不是某个镇子遇到了特别的失业问题或类似情况。也不是因为整体经济状况。而是因为,报纸,如果你想知道今天的棒球赛结果、比分细节和其他所有信息,报纸要到第二天早上才告诉你,而那对你来说还是新闻。我从中读到的财经资料,比如股票价格之类的,也是第二天早上才是新闻。太平洋战区的战况发展,你早上在《纽约时报》看到时,还是新闻。新闻就是那些你不知道但又想知道的东西。还有那些招聘广告,你知道,尽管可能有所分类,但仍然是找工作的主要去处。你可以逐一盘点,曾经日报占据主导地位的每一项功能,如今都已不再占据主导地位。这个行业发生了本质性的变化,我们没能想出任何解决办法,我们会继续尝试。就像我说的,这不关乎经济影响,但我认为关乎社会影响。我们没能解决这个问题。

WARREN BUFFETTNo. No, they aren't. And it isn't just — you know, it isn’t some town that has a particular problem with unemployment or anything of the sort. And it isn't due to general economic conditions. It's due to the fact that a newspaper, if you wanted to know the baseball results from the present day, and the box scores, and everything else, they told you the following morning and it was still news to you. And the financial material that I read from there, and in terms of looking at the stock prices and everything, they were news to you the following morning. And the — What was developing in the Pacific in terms of the war was news to you when you read about it in the morning in The New York Times. And it’s — news is what you don't know that you want to know. And the — And those Help Wanted ads, you know, segregated as they may have been, still were the place to go to look to find a job. And you can go up and down the line and one element after another where the daily print newspaper was primary, they're no longer primary. And the business has changed in a very material way, and we haven't been able to figure out any solutions to that, and we’ll keep trying. Like I say, it's not of economic consequence, but I think it is societal consequence. And we haven't been able to solve it.

TTI “在过去一年里业绩大幅改善”

TTI has "improved dramatically in the past year"

沃伦·巴菲特好的,乔纳森?

WARREN BUFFETTOK, Jonathan?

乔纳森·布兰特自 11 年前伯克希尔收购 TTI 以来,它一直是一个不错的增长故事,得益于良好的内生增长和至少两次成功的补强收购,其税前利润翻了一倍多,达到约 4 亿美元。业务势头在第一季度似乎还在加速。您能谈谈电子元器件分销行业的竞争格局以及 TTI 的优势吗?是因为这个行业本身很棒,还是 TTI 的商业模式和/或管理团队特别出色?

JONATHAN BRANDTTTI has been a nice growth story since Berkshire acquired it 11 years ago, more than doubling its pre-tax earnings to about $400 million due to fine organic growth and at least two successful bolt-on acquisitions. Business momentum appeared to accelerate in the first quarter. Can you please talk about the competitive landscape in the electronic components distribution industry and what TTI's advantages are? Is it just a great industry to be in or is TTI's business model and/or management team special?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯——

WARREN BUFFETTWell —

乔纳森·布兰特您预计它会继续成为伯克希尔增长较快的非保险子公司之一吗?

JONATHAN BRANDTDo you expect it to continue to be one of Berkshire's faster growing non-insurance subsidiaries?

沃伦·巴菲特TTI 由一位名叫保罗·安德鲁斯的人经营,他为我们做出了极为出色的成绩。他是一个很棒的人,也是一位了不起的管理者。在过去——他基本上让业务翻了四倍,而且在过去一年里,一直到现在,还在加速。他们分销小型电子元器件。实际上,他们的平均——他们是一个数十亿美元的业务——但他们销售的平均单品价格不到 5 美分。所以这有点像经营软心豆粒糖生意之类的事情。只不过这些东西被安装进各种我不懂的高端机器里。我们有一个以达拉斯-沃斯堡地区为总部的全球性运营机构。由一个人创立,他 45 或 50 年前离开了通用动力的一个部门。然后一步步建立了这个业务——比如,就在过去两个月内,我们收购了一家韩国公司,这将是又一次可观的扩张。我们在全球开展业务。电子元器件在过去一年里绝对爆发了。他们使用一个叫,你知道,嗯,本质上是一个衡量积压订单的指标。他们称之为“订单出货比”。但这只是个专业术语。但,这个业务增长了——我的意思是,在过去一年里业绩大幅改善。而且每个月都在持续改善。所以外面一定有什么事情在发生,因为没人会买这些东西把它们存放在地下室或类似的地方。我是说,这些电子元器件会被使用。有些产品还处于配给状态。我们与供应商关系很好。我们与客户关系也很好,因为我们比大多数竞争对手持有更多库存。所以,尤其是在业务紧张的时候,我们能交付,并且做得非常出色。所以我归功于保罗。他几年前就开始扩大他的实体设施。他这么做简直是天赐良机,因为以目前通过该设施的业务量,我们之前根本应付不了。但这是一个竞争激烈的行业。我是说,你看看纽约证券交易所上市的艾睿电子——我们有竞争对手。我认为保罗比他们做得好得多。我非常高兴他是伯克希尔大家庭的一员。这个行业也会有放缓的时候,因为他们的客户,你知道,会有自己的周期。业务量会下降。但长远来看,这个业务会增长。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTTTI is run by a fellow named Paul Andrews who's done an absolutely sensational job with us. He's a wonderful man. He's a wonderful manager. And in the last — he's quadrupled the business, basically, but in the last year and accelerating right to this point. They distribute little electronic components. They actually — their average — they're a many-billion dollar business — and their average item is less than a nickel that they sell. So it's kind of like being in the jellybean business or something like that. Except these things go into all kinds of fancy machines that I don't understand. And we have a worldwide operation based in the Dallas, Fort Worth area. And built by one man who left a division of General Dynamics 45 or 50 years ago. And step-by-step built up this business — like we just bought within the last two months, we bought an operation in South Korea that will be another substantial addition. We do business worldwide. And electronic components that have absolutely taken off in the last year. And they use something called, you know, well, it's essentially a measure of backlog. And book-to-build is the ratio they call it. But it's just kind of a special term. The — but, it's grown — I mean, it's just improved dramatically in the last year. And it continues month after month. So something is going on out there because nobody buys these things to store them in their basement or anything of the sort. I mean, these get used, these electronic components. Some of them are on allocation. We have a great relationship with suppliers. We have a very good relationship with our customers because we carry more inventory than most of our competitors. So particularly when the business is tight we can deliver and do a very first-class job doing it. So I give credit to Paul. He increased his physical facility, started on that a few years ago. And it's a godsend that he did it because with the business going through there now we wouldn't have been able to handle it. But it's a competitive business. I mean, if you look at Arrow Electronics, you know, on the New York Stock Exchange — we've got competitors. I think Paul is doing a better job, by a considerable margin, than they are. And I'm delighted as a part of the Berkshire family. There will be times when that business slows down because their customers, you know, will have their own cycles. And what it does will go down. But over time that business is going to grow. Charlie?

查理·芒格是的,这是一门美妙的生意,因为它太难了,竞争者根本不想碰。我住在奥马哈的时候,有个人靠收死马、提炼马油,日子过得富足又清闲,几乎不怎么干活,而且从没有过竞争对手。(笑声)他大约上午 11 点就会跑到奥马哈俱乐部开始喝酒。这生意不难做,但没人挤进来跟他抢。而愿意分销成千上万种、每个只值几分钱的电子零件的人,也少得可怜。这事极其复杂。当然,那家公司在这行做得极其出色,而且还在不断拿下更多同类业务。所以你说得对,这是一个巨大的增长型生意,某种程度上就是电子版的收死马、炼马油。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, it's a wonderful business because it's so difficult to do that competitors don't want try it. When I lived in Omaha there was a man who lived in great prosperity and almost no work. And his business was gathering up and rendering dead horses. And he never had any competitors. (Laughter) He used to come up to the Omaha Club and start drinking about 11 in the morning. It was not a difficult business. But nobody ever crowded him with new competition. And very few people want to distribute zillions of electronic parts that are worth a nickel each. It's very complicated. And of course that business is terribly good at it. And it keeps getting more and more of the same. So you're right. It's a huge growth business which is sort of the electronic equivalent of gathering up and rendering dead horses. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特想象一下,要追踪将近 100 万个不同的品类,每个价值都很小,还要快速把它们送到全球各地的客户手里,因为客户要得急。这些事可不容易管理。是啊,确实如此。

WARREN BUFFETTImagine keeping track of close to a million different items, you know, with very small values attached to them and getting them out to your customer fast because they want them fast, all over the world. You know, and those things are not easy to manage. I mean, yeah.

查理·芒格还要保持这么多品类的库存。非常复杂。那家公司在这块做得极其出色。

CHARLIE MUNGERAnd staying in stock on so many items. It's very complicated. And that business is very good at it.

沃伦·巴菲特是啊,我们运气——

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, we're luck —

查理·芒格当然它还会继续增长。马没了,但这些零件不会消失。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERAnd of course it'll grow. The horses went away but these parts aren't going to go away. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特查理的专业就是研究那些能让老板整天坐着喝酒的生意——(笑声)——他觉得那才是我们应该竞争或者买入的领域。

WARREN BUFFETTCharlie made a profession of studying businesses where the owners could sit around and drink all day and have — (laughter) — he thought that was where we ought to be competing but — or buying.

查理·芒格沃伦,我的理论是,如果一个生意经不起一点儿糟糕的管理,那它就不算生意。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERMy theory, Warren, is if it can't stand a little mismanagement, it's no business. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特是啊,我们有时候正拿自己测试这一点。(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTYeah and we're testing that sometimes. (Laughter)

Phillips 66 与持股低于 10%

Phillips 66 and staying below 10 percent ownership

沃伦·巴菲特好的,2 号台。

WARREN BUFFETTOK, Station 2.

现场股东你好,我是本·舍伯(Ben Sherber),来自堪萨斯州托皮卡。我只想说,沃伦和查理,再次感谢你们招待大家。这是一场很棒的活动。

AUDIENCE MEMBERHi, Ben Sherber (PH), Topeka, Kansas. Just want to say, Warren and Charlie, thank you again for hosting us all. This is a great event.

沃伦·巴菲特谢谢。

WARREN BUFFETTThank you.

现场股东我的问题关于最近减持 Phillips 66 股票的决定。不是想让你难堪。但就在那之后,股价一下子涨了大约 22 美元。当时你提到,如果持股超过 10% 会有一些监管要求。你能谈谈,在决定是保留超过 10% 还是降到这个门槛以下时,你会考虑哪些因素?另外,长期来看你对 Phillips 66 怎么看,比如他们的中游和炼油业务?

AUDIENCE MEMBERMy question is about the recent decision to sell shares back of Phillips 66. Not to put you on the hot seat. But right after that, share prices jumped up about $22 a share. You mentioned at the time that there's some regulatory requirements if you own over 10 percent of a company. Could you talk about the factors that go into how you decide whether to retain more than that or get under that threshold? And then what are your thoughts long-term on Phillips 66, like, their business mid-stream refining?

沃伦·巴菲特是啊,这其实就是去年的城市服务优先股那个情况。(笑声)我们在大约 93 或 94 美元的价格卖了股票,现在可能已经 115 美元了。但我们持有该公司不到 10% 的股份。泰德(韦施勒)、托德(库姆斯)和我在思考各种监管和交易问题之后,绝大多数情况下,我们会把可流通证券的持股控制在 10% 以下。我们对航空公司也是这么做的。但这不意味着我们要减持美国运通之类的股票。不过——格雷格·加兰在 Phillips 66 干得很出色。我们跟公司关系很好,他是一位非常非常有经验、头脑清醒的管理者。但我确实决定要把持股降到 10% 以下。就像我说的,我们对富国银行也保持在略低于 10% 的水平。实际上,我们卖了一点股票,就是为了把持股降到 10% 以下,我记得美国航空和联合大陆航空也是这种情况。除非特殊情况,我们会坚持控制在 10% 以下。但我们在 Phillips 66 还有 9% 多一点的持股。我觉得他们运营做得不错,资本配置也做得好。几年前我们跟他们换了一笔生意——用股票换了一项业务,那项业务我们一直保留运营,效益很好。所以我们在 Phillips 66 里还有不少钱。我希望这笔交易是在更高价格做的。但我们在卖出部分股票上赚了钱,也达到了目的。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, well, it was the City Service preferred of last year. (Laughter) We sold the stock at around 93 or '4. And it's probably 115 now. But we own just under 10 percent of the company. And the more Ted [Weschler] and Todd [Combs] and I think about various problems connected with regulatory problems and trading problems and so on, overwhelmingly we will stick below 10 percent on marketable security holdings. We've done it with the airlines. Now that does not mean we're going to reduce our holdings in American Express or anything of the sort. But — and Greg Garland has done a great job at Phillips 66. We've had very good relations with the company. They're very — he's a very, very, very experienced and sensible manager. But I did decide that I wanted to be below 10 percent in that holding. And we, like I say, we'll stay just slightly under 10 percent of Wells Fargo. We've actually sold a few shares just to stay below 10 percent in the case, I think, of both American Airlines and United Continental. Unless there's something unusual we're going to stay under ten. But we have nine and a significant fraction percent of Phillips. And I think they've been good at operations. I think they've been good at capital allocation. We traded them a business — we traded them stock for a business some years ago, which has been a very nice business that we've retained in operation. So we've got a lot of money still in Phillips. And I wish I'd made the deal at a higher price. But we made money on what we sold and we accomplished an objective. Charlie?

查理·芒格嗯,我们喜欢我们用股票换来的那家子公司(Phillips Specialty Products)。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, we like the subsidiary [Phillips Specialty Products] we traded the stock for. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特我没听清——

WARREN BUFFETTI missed that —

查理·芒格我们用股票换了一家子公司。

CHARLIE MUNGERWe traded the stock for a subsidiary.

沃伦·巴菲特哦,是啊,对。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, well, yeah.

查理·芒格我们喜欢那家子公司。

CHARLIE MUNGERWe like the subsidiary.

沃伦·巴菲特哦对对,它改善了不少——

WARREN BUFFETTOh yeah. Well, it improved —

查理·芒格那股票可不是白白就没了的。

CHARLIE MUNGERIt isn't like the stock went away for nothing.

沃伦·巴菲特是啊是啊,实际上我们在 Phillips 66 上干得还不赖。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Yeah, actually we've done pretty well with Phillips.

加密货币狂潮将“以糟糕结局收场”

Cryptocurrency craze will "come to a bad ending"

沃伦·巴菲特贝基?

WARREN BUFFETTBecky?

贝基·奎克这个问题来自乌克兰的弗拉德·科普捷夫(Vlad Koptev)。他说:“去年加密货币的市值已经接近伯克希尔和苹果。显然,加密货币背后的理念会影响伯克希尔作为股东的传统银行集团。你一直说,你对加密货币没有深入了解。那么是什么因素让你说它是个泡沫?”

BECKY QUICKThis question comes from Vlad Koptev (PH) in Ukraine. He says, "Capitalization of cryptocurrency has approached that of Berkshire and Apple last year. And clearly the idea behind crypto will affect conventional banking groups where Berkshire is a shareholder. You always say you didn't go into too much detail to obtain an understanding on cryptocurrencies. So what factors caused you to say that it's a bubble?"

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,一般来说,非生产性资产不仅——如果你在基督时代买了黄金,算一下复利,可能也就是 1% 的十分之二左右。它本质上除了所谓的稀缺性,什么也生产不出来——因为金矿只能开采那么多。但那又怎样呢?我的意思是,它自身能产出什么?支票是个奇妙的想法。想象一下,如果没有支票或电汇,世界会变成什么样。但这不代表支票本身就有巨大价值。如果你说不能用一种叫“支票”的小纸片,你就会用别的方式转账。我认为,任何时候你买入一项非生产性资产,你都是在指望后面有人会来买非生产性资产,因为他们觉得自己能卖给别人赚更多钱。这种事在郁金香上试过,也被反复尝试过。历史上对各种东西都试过。它最终会以糟糕结局收场。我是说,你很难——你可以想想未开发的土地。比如路易斯安那购地案,大约 1500 万美元买了约 80 万平方英里的土地。事实上,你现在坐着的这块土地就属于那笔交易。那么当时我们付了多少钱?每平方英里 20 美元。一平方英里是 640 英亩,算下来每英亩大约三美分。对当时的非生产性资产来说,这是一笔相当不错的买入。但这得看情况——非常难。你可以买邮票。比尔·格罗斯曾收藏了一套非常棒的邮票,最后卖出了更高的价格。但那也是靠别人想买,希望将来能卖给别人赚更多钱,如此循环。最终,你是靠生产性资产赚钱的。如果你买一个农场,你会估算单位面积能产多少大豆或玉米,需要付给帮你种地的农民多少钱,你的税是多少,等等。你根据资产本身在未来能产出什么来做结论。那才叫投资。而你买入一样东西,是因为希望明天早上醒来价格会更高,唯一的原因就是你需要有更多人进场而不是离场。这种事能发生,而且会在一段时间内自我强化,有时持续很长时间,有时达到惊人的规模。但最终——它们会以糟糕结局收场。加密货币也会以糟糕结局收场。更不用说,这个资产本身不产生任何价值,同时还引来了大量的骗子之流,他们试图搭建各种交易所之类的东西。你知道,那些品格不那么光彩的人看到了机会,去宰割那些想发财的人——因为邻居买这些彼此根本不懂的东西发了财,他们也眼红。它会以糟糕结局收场。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTWell, generally non-productive assets remain not only — if you'd bought gold at the time of Christ and you figured the compound rate on it, you know, it may be a couple tenths of 1 percent. It essentially is not going to deliver anything other than supposed scarcity, you know, because they'll only — you can only mine so many. But so what? I mean, what does it produce itself? You know, the check is a wonderful idea. Just imagine how the world would be without being able to write checks or have wire transfer of funds. But it doesn't make the check intrinsically itself worth a lot of money. And if you said you can't use something called "check" with a little piece of paper you'd do something else to transfer money. I think that anytime you buy a nonproductive asset you are counting on somebody else later on to buy a nonproductive asset because they think they can sell it to somebody for more money. And it's been tried with tulips and it's been tried. It's been tried with various things over time. And it does come to a bad ending. I mean, having — you have a hard time. You can think of raw land. I mean, the Louisiana Purchase was, say, $15 million for 800,000 or so square miles of land. In fact, you're sitting on land that came with the Louisiana Purchase. And so what'd we pay? We paid 20 bucks a square mile. And, you know, 640 acres in a square mile. And you're down to three cents or something. So that was a pretty good purchase of what was then a nonproductive property. But it'd depend — but it's very hard. You can buy stamps. Bill Gross got, you know, collected a wonderful stamp collection. It sold for more money in the end. But it's dependent on somebody else wanting to buy, hoping they will sell it for more money and so on. And in the end you make your money on productive assets. If you buy a farm, you try to estimate what the crops, what amount per acre of soybeans or corn or whatever may be raised, and how much you have to pay the farmer that farms it for you, and what your taxes will be, and various things. And you make a conclusion based on what the asset itself will produce over time. And that's an investment. When you buy something because you're hoping tomorrow morning you're going to wake up, you know, and the price will be higher, the only reason, you know, you need more people coming into it than are leaving. And you can get that. And it will feed on itself for a while, and sometimes for a long while, and sometimes to extraordinary numbers. But in the end — but they come to bad endings. And cryptocurrencies will come to bad endings. And along with the fact that there's nothing being produced in the way of value from the asset that you also have the problem that it draws in a lot of charlatans and that sort of thing who are trying to create various sorts of exchanges or whatever it may be. You know, it's something where people who are of less than stellar character see an opportunity to clip people who are trying to get rich because their neighbor's getting rich buying this stuff that neither one of them understands. It will come to a bad ending. Charlie?

查理·芒格嗯,我比你更讨厌加密货币。(笑声)所以对我来说,这纯粹是痴呆。我认为那些专业交易员跑去交易加密货币,简直令人作呕。这就像有人在交易粪便,而你决定:“我可不能落下。”(笑声和掌声)

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I like cryptocurrencies a lot less than you do. (Laughter) And so to me it's just dementia. And I think the people who are professional traders that go into trading cryptocurrencies, it's just disgusting. It's like somebody else is trading turds and you decide, "I can't be left out." (Laughter and applause)

沃伦·巴菲特考虑到我们正在向全球进行网络直播,我希望我们有些内容翻译得不太好。(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTTo the extent that this — we are being webcast around the world, I hope some of our stuff doesn't translate very well, actually. (Laughter)

股东将从企业税减免中获得大量好处

Shareholders will get a lot of the corporate tax cut benefit

沃伦·巴菲特好的,加里。

WARREN BUFFETTOK, Gary.

加里·兰塞姆是的,我有一个关于企业税率的问题。在我的投资圈子里,对减税的好处落到谁头上存在争论。主流看法是,随着时间推移,竞争会把它传导给消费者。但也许有一部分会留在股东手里。我的问题是,你认为长期来看,部分好处会留在股东手里吗?也许不仅仅是车险领域?可能也包括你们其他的业务。

GARY RANSOMYes, I had a question on the corporate tax rate. And we have a debate in my investment world about where the benefits of that cut fall. And I'd say the consensus is going to the consumer as it gets competed away over time. But perhaps some of it sticks to shareholders. And my question is, do you think, over the long run, some of the benefits sticks to shareholders? And maybe it's even beyond auto insurance? Maybe it's other businesses you have as well.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,人们通常的做法是,他们先想好自己想要的答案,然后请来——或者干脆贴上一名经济学家,让那经济学家用更复杂的方式告诉他们:一切都会很美好,因为这件事已经发生了。但答案是这样的:在我们的受监管公用事业公司里,所有好处都应该流向、也确实会流向公用事业用户,因为如果我们经营得好,我们有权获得一定的净资产收益率。但我们没资格因为税率变了就获得超额收益。同样,如果税率重新调高,我们预计会因此得到补偿。所以在那个领域——对我们来说那笔金额是 50 或 60 亿美元。但在那个领域,毫无疑问,好处流向了用户、消费者。也应该如此。那么问题来了,剩下的部分,会不会被竞争蚕食掉?答案是:有时候会,有时候会被快速而大幅地蚕食掉;有时候可能很慢;其他时候可能根本不会。有一件事是确定的:公司税法的改革总体上对股东有利,对伯克希尔股东也有利。我的意思是——这就是国会通过的法案。他们的意图必然是,如果你要减税,那么这一次股东会分到特别大的一块。你们中有些人会在政治上认同这一点,有些人会在政治上不认同。但你们所有人都会同样受益。(笑)而且我认为,如果你得到了好处,说这对其他所有人都会产生美妙效果,这是人之常情。我们拭目以待,看它会不会真的如此。在经济学中,衡量单一变量的影响极其极其极其困难。你不能在经济学里只做一件事。人们多少在物理学里学到过这一点,谈论中国的蝴蝶之类的东西。但是——你在经济学中遇到的每一个问题,对任何一个陈述,你都应该说“然后呢?”当你开始追问“然后呢”的时候,你就开始偏向那些在政治生活中给出的答案碰巧通常会在某种方式上对你有利的人,包括你的钱包。我们在这次减税中就看到了这一点。这对伯克希尔·哈撒韦的股东有帮助。我要说的是,一部分好处会被竞争蚕食掉;一部分按照法律规定会流向公用事业公司;还有一部分会让伯克希尔股东受益。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTWell, what people do generally with that is they take what they want to be the answer for them and then they hire — or they just attach themselves to some economist that gives them a more complicated way of saying it's all going to be wonderful because it's happened. But the answer is that in the case of our regulated public utilities, the benefits are all supposed to go, and will go, to the utility customer, because we're entitled to a return on equity if we perform well. And we're not entitled to get excess returns because our tax rates changed. And similarly, if tax rates would go back up, we would expect to get compensated for that. So in that area — and that was 5 or $6 billion for us. But in that area, absolutely, it goes to the user, the consumer. And it should. Then the question is, with the remainder, does it get competed away or not? And the answer is sometimes it does, sometimes it gets competed very quickly and substantially. Sometimes it may be slow. And other times it probably won't. The one thing to know is that the change in the corporate tax law was good for shareholders, generally, and Berkshire shareholders. I mean — and that's what Congress passed. And the intent had to be that if you were going to cut taxes that shareholders would get a particularly large portion this time. And some of you will agree with that politically and some of you won't agree with it politically. But you'll all benefit equally. (Laughs) And I think it's human nature if you're getting a break to say it's going to work wonderfully for everybody else. And we'll find out whether it will or not. It's very, very, very difficult in economics to measure the impact of single variables. You cannot just do one thing in economics. People kind of learn that in physics and talk about butterflies in China and all that sort of thing. But the — every question you get in economics the next, any statement, you should say "and then what?" And when you get into the "and then whats" you get start favoring people who give an answer to that in political life that happens to usually help you in some way or another, including your pocketbook. And we've see that with this. And it's helped the shareholders at Berkshire Hathaway. I would say that some will be competed away. Some, by law, will go to the utilities and some will benefit Berkshire shareholders. Charlie?

查理·芒格我没什么要补充的。

CHARLIE MUNGERI have nothing to add.

利用多元文化背景改善国际经济,以及多元文化的好处

Utilizing multicultural backgrounds to improve international economies, and the benefits of multiculturality

沃伦·巴菲特好的。3 号站点。

WARREN BUFFETTOK. Station 3.

现场股东嗨,巴菲特先生和芒格先生。我叫凯文,来自中国深圳,目前在波士顿学院学习金融和哲学。我有一个比较宽泛的问题。在这个日益全球化的世界里,您认为我们年轻一代如何最好地利用我们中美两国的背景和经验,为两国经济和关系创造价值并带来好处?您认为拥有多元文化背景的人有何价值?谢谢。

AUDIENCE MEMBERHi, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. My name's Kevin and I'm from Shenzhen, China, currently studying finance and philosophy at Boston College. I have a rather broad question. In this more and more globalized world, what do you think our younger generation can do to best leverage our background and experience of both China and U.S. to create values and for the benefit two countries' economy and relationship? And what do you see valuable in a person with a multicultural background? Thank you.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,关于最后一个问题,我认为拥有多元文化背景非常棒。我语言从来不好。但如果我今天在上大学,不管是在哪个国家,我都会去学另一个国家的语言,因为我认为随着时间的推移,这会是一个巨大的优势。问题的第一部分,我想再听一遍。我想确认我能准确回答你的具体问题——我认为这对你的未来有好处。能把麦克风再递过去吗?

WARREN BUFFETTWell, I think in answer to the last question, I think it's terrific to have a multicultural background. And I never was any good at languages. But if I were in college today, in either country, I'd be learning the language of the other country, because I think it would be a great advantage over time. The first part of the question, I'd like to have that stated again to me. I want to make sure I'm answering your specific aspect there on the — I think it's going to be good for your future. But can we have the microphone on up there again?

现场股东所以第一部分的问题是,您认为我们年轻一代如何最好地利用我们中美两国的背景和经验?

AUDIENCE MEMBERSo the first part of the question is, like, what do you think our younger generation can do to best leverage our background and experience of both China and U.S.?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我会从掌握多种语言开始,我的意思是,当然,显然你需要能用两种语言表达自己。你对另一个社会的文化理解得越好,显然,这就是好处。但我认为,市场体系,无论在中国还是美国都经过了不同程度的调整,在某种程度上,它确实——会有一只无形的手,在一定程度上起作用,通过中美两国以及世界其他地区的进步,来改善未来几代人的处境。我的意思是,在我看来,特别是在一个核武器世界里,让全世界人民都富裕起来要好得多,部分是通过他们自己的努力,部分是通过他们与世界的互动。我们在那方面取得了很大进步,尤其是二战以后。我是说,马歇尔计划是个绝妙的主意,你知道,而不是像一战后那样行事,结果我们也看到了。我认为二战后我们的行为明智得多。所以我看好美国的未来。但我也看好中国的未来,在很大程度上,还有世界其他地区。10 年、20 年、50 年后,人们的生活会更好。我认为这甚至无法阻挡。查理?前提是不存在大规模杀伤性武器。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, I'd start with being multilingual, I mean, certainly, in terms of, you know, I mean, obviously you want to be able to express yourself in both. And the better you can understand, obviously, the culture of another society, obviously, that's a benefit. But I think the market system, modified as it may be, both in China and in the United States, in a way, it really does — there will be an invisible hand, to some extent, that does work to improve the lot of future generations by the fact that both China and the United States, and the rest of the world, is improving. I mean, it is much better, in my view, particularly in a nuclear world. But it's much better to have people prospering throughout the world, partly through their own efforts but partly through their interactions with the rest of the world. And we've made a lot of progress in that respect particularly since World War II. I mean, it was a terrific idea to have the Marshall Plan, you know, instead of behaving like we did after World War I and getting the result that we got. I think we behaved much more intelligently after World War II. So I'm bullish on the future of United States. But I'm bullish on the future of China, and to a significant extent, you know, the rest of the world. People are going to be living better 10, 20, 50 years from now. And I don't think that's something that can be stopped even. Charlie? Absent weapons of mass destruction.

查理·芒格是啊,嗯,多元文化这东西,如果你是一个中国的直肠科医生,或者内布拉斯加州的直肠科医生,那么你流利掌握英语和汉语就没多大用处。(笑声)所以如果你要利用你的多元文化背景,你得在中美之间的某个接口工作。你可以像李录那样在美国筹集资金投到中国,或者你可以做某种进口商或贸易专家。但你必须靠近那个接口,才能受益于双语能力等。

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, well, the multicultural stuff, it wouldn't do you much good to be fluent in both English and Chinese if you were, say, a proctologist in China or a proctologist in Nebraska. (Laughter) So if you're going to use your multicultural background, you've got to work at some interface between the United States and China. And you can raise money in the United States and invest it in China like Li Lu does or you can be some kind of an importer or a trade specialist. But you've got to get near that interface to benefit from being bilingual and so on.

沃伦·巴菲特但你可以打赌,两者之间的衔接会多得多。

WARREN BUFFETTBut you would bet that the interface will be substantially greater.

查理·芒格非常大。

CHARLIE MUNGERHuge.

沃伦·巴菲特对。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah.

查理·芒格非常大。

CHARLIE MUNGERHuge.

沃伦·巴菲特而这正是你需要为之做好准备的事。

WARREN BUFFETTAnd that's what you want to prepare for.

查理·芒格是的。而且我认为,总体来说,等我们有了多元文化,你也可以做到多学科。但总体上,我认为如果一个人极其专精——比如像个直肠科医生——反而能赚更多钱。(笑声)而对大多数人来说,如果想模仿沃伦和我,要赚大钱就难多了。

CHARLIE MUNGERYes. And I think that, generally speaking, that we get multicultural you can also be multidisciplinary. But generally I think people make more money if they're very narrowly specialized, like the proctologist. (Laughter) And it's much harder to make a lot of money for most people if you try to imitate Warren and me.

沃伦·巴菲特我真庆幸没早一点遇到他。我是说——(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTI'm glad I didn't meet him earlier. I mean — (Laughter)

鼓励子公司提供低成本的 401(k) 选项

Subsidiaries encouraged to offer low-cost 401(k) options

沃伦·巴菲特好,安德鲁,请讲。

WARREN BUFFETTOK, Andrew.

安德鲁·罗斯·索金好,这个问题来自一位说“我是伯克希尔的员工,也是股东”的人。

ANDREW ROSS SORKINOK, this question comes from someone who says, "I am a Berkshire employee and shareholder."

沃伦·巴菲特嗯。

WARREN BUFFETTUh huh.

安德鲁·罗斯·索金“我读到一篇 ProPublica 和《华盛顿邮报》的调查文章,说伯克希尔旗下很多子公司只提供高费率的 401(k) 计划,都是主动管理型基金,而不是您一直倡导的、作为退休储蓄最佳路径的低成本指数基金。文章作者说联系了公司,没人回应。您愿意做些事情来改进我们的 401(k) 计划,让它跟您的投资理念一致吗?另外,从运营角度,既然您在这件事上观点那么明确,怎么还会出现这种情况?”

ANDREW ROSS SORKIN"I read an investigative article from ProPublica and The Washington Post that many of Berkshire's various units only offer 401(k) plans with high fees that are actively managed rather than the low-cost indexes you have advocated as the best path for savings for retirement. "The article's author said he contacted the company and nobody would comment. "Will you do something to improve our 401(k) offerings to match your investment philosophy? And from an operational perspective, how did this happen, given your strong views on the topic?"

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我绝对说过——在很多次年报里都说过——我们的经理们知道我对提供指数基金选项的看法。但他们都有不同的计划,不同的历史。他们各自经营自己的业务。谁知道呢,具体是哪个——如果你看那些老业务,他们通常有固定收益养老金计划。现在没人设立那种了。然后问题是,你是否要过渡到别的东西。归根结底,我们绝大多数地认为我们的经理们会做那些决定以及其他决定。我猜,在那些有 401(k) 计划的公司工作的人中,非常高的比例会有指数基金选项,但有些可能没有。我们唯一——我想我们要求公司在 401(k) 计划中,员工买入伯克希尔股票的比例要有限制。我们不希望那些与伯克希尔绑定的员工失去工作。我们当然不想鼓励他们把 100% 或类似比例的储蓄都投到伯克希尔本身。我不想处于那种境地。但即使在那方面,我也不认为我们坚持让任何公司那样做。我想我们可能提出过,当被问到一两次时,我们给出了那个建议。但经理们会经营他们的公司。员工,如果他们觉得——我们有些公司有人力资源部——如果他们希望有不同的选择之类,他们应该向经理们表达这些看法。有些情况下,经理们会注意,另外一些情况下可能不会。我们有各种各样的经理来经营我们的业务。我们不会开始试图从奥马哈来管理他们。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTWell, I've absolutely said what — many, many times through annual reports — and our managers know what I think about the attractiveness of having an index fund option. But they all have different plans, different histories. And they run their businesses. And who knows, you know, which particular — if you go back to the older businesses, they have defined benefit pension plans, generally. Nobody puts them in anymore. And then the question is, you know, do you transition to something else. In the end, we overwhelmingly thought our managers make those kind of decisions and others. And my guess is that a very high significant percentage of people who have — who work at a company that has a 401(k) plan will have an index fund option, but they may not, in some cases. The only thing we — I think we have asked the companies to have a limit on the percentage, I think, that they might put in Berkshire's stock through the 401(k). We don't want people to lose jobs who are tied to Berkshire. We certainly don't want to be in the position of encouraging to put 100 percent or something of their savings in Berkshire itself. I don't want to be in that position. But I don't think even there we've insisted on any company doing that. I think we've probably made that, when we've been asked about it once or twice, I think we've given that suggestion. But the managers will run the companies. The employees, if they feel — and some of our companies have human relations departments — if they feel that they'd like different options or something like that, you know, they should make those views known to the managers. And in some cases the managers, I think, will pay attention to them and in others they probably won't. We've got a wide variety of managers that run our businesses. And we're not going to start trying to run them from Omaha. Charlie?

查理·芒格嗯,你说得对。那种情况确实出现过。之所以会有高费率的选项,是因为我们把整件事都授权给了子公司的经理人。因此,总部这边完全没有去关注提供给员工的选项。你指出的问题是,很多子公司的员工如果当初选指数化,而不是实际选的那些产品,收益本来会好得多。我猜你这话完全正确,你知道的。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, you're right. That has happened. That business of the high-fee choices, because we've delegated the whole subject to the managers of the subsidiaries. And so no attention at all is being given to the employee choices at headquarters. And what you're pointing out is that a lot of the employees in the subsidiaries would do better if they indexed instead of choosing what they did choose. My guess is you're absolutely right about that. You know.

沃伦·巴菲特对。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah.

查理·芒格而如果今天公司里还有哪位经理人,我希望我们在鼓励大家做更好选择这件事上,能比过去稍好一点。

CHARLIE MUNGERAnd if there are any people, managers, in the business today, I hope we'll do a little better at encouraging better choices.

沃伦·巴菲特对,不过我们不想让他们过多干预——

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, although we don't want them to interfere too much in —

查理·芒格是的。

CHARLIE MUNGERNo.

沃伦·巴菲特——指导他们该怎么做,你知道,我们可以把人事方面的事接过来。

WARREN BUFFETT— directing what they, you know, we can take over human relations.

查理·芒格不,这得由经理人自己决定。但我们不反对他们有一点不同的看法。

CHARLIE MUNGERNo, it's up to the managers. But we wouldn't object to a little different viewpoint.

沃伦·巴菲特而且我们把自己的想法表达得非常清楚。我是说,有些人就是不听我们的。(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTAnd we have made it very clear what we think. I mean, some of them don't listen to us. (Laughter)

伯克希尔的文化将延续,因为“它行之有效”

Berkshire's culture will continue because "it works"

沃伦·巴菲特好,格雷格。

WARREN BUFFETTOK, Gregg.

格雷格·沃伦沃伦,你一再提到,伯克希尔各子公司之间有一种强大的共同文化,它建立在诚实正直的承诺、对长期的专注以及对客户关怀的重视之上。在收购运营公司时,找到与伯克希尔文化高度契合的企业也至关重要。在多数情况下,如今管理这些子公司的经理人,正是那些当初把自家企业卖给伯克希尔的家族成员,他们对自己经营的业务有切身利益,也与他们和伯克希尔共同持有的那种文化有着深厚的联结。在我看来,更大的挑战在于确保那些已被收购的大型上市公司能保持方向不变,而这些公司现在占伯克希尔整体价值的比重已经相当可观,且仍在增长。您能否谈谈,在维护伯克希尔文化,以及寻找与你们所建立的文化相契合的公司方面,您和查理面临的最大挑战是什么?

GREGG WARRENWarren, you've noted time and again that there is a strong common culture shared across Berkshire subsidiaries built on a commitment to honesty and integrity, a focus on the long-term, and an emphasis on customer care. And it's also critical to find cultures that mesh well with Berkshire's when acquiring operating companies. In most cases, the managers that are currently running these subsidiaries are the same individuals who are members of the families that originally sold their firms to Berkshire, leaving them with a vested interest in the businesses they are running and a strong connection to the culture they tend to share in common with Berkshire. It seems to me that the greater challenge is in ensuring that the large publicly-traded firms that have been acquired and account for a meaningful and growing amount of Berkshire's overall value, stay the course. Could you comment on whether or not this is the case and what the greatest challenge is for you and Charlie when it comes to not only maintaining Berkshire's culture but in finding firms that would fit in well with what you've built?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我觉得我们的文化极其强大。而且它还在不断得到强化——坦率地说,我认为我们的股东群体也在强化它。我的意思是,我们有一群与众不同的股东,我们看待这些股东的方式,我认为,也和许多其他公司不太一样。我觉得有相当数量的上市公司,其实希望自己没有公众股东。而我们很乐意拥有公众股东,特别喜欢个人股东,不偏爱机构投资者。我们不会去,你知道,给他们提供业绩指引,也不会特意在投资者电话会或类似的事情上去跟他们单独沟通。我们想要的是——我们希望直接和——我们从根本上希望股东就是我们的合伙人。这一点从最根本上就是这么定的,进而延伸到董事会。我们的董事不是那种——嗯,我担任过 19 家公司的董事,从来没见过像我们这样的董事会。而且我觉得这一点相当了不起,我们有一批董事,在很多情况下,他们自己就持有大量公司股票。他们没拿什么特殊待遇。这是一群以所有者为导向、心里装着伯克希尔、商业嗅觉敏锐的股东。我们董事会里没有那种因为自己是知名教育家或诸如此类的身份才进来的人。我们想要的人,从根本上说,是那些会为自己、也为合伙人考虑如何把生意做好的人。我们的经理人也符合这种文化,他们在加入我们的时候就选择了这种文化。有时候,我们还会遇到第二代、第三代甚至第四代的成员,比如在内布拉斯加家具城,他们也秉持同样的文化。这完美吗?不,远非完美。我的意思是,你没法让所有人的想法都一样。我们有一些人——我们有一些非常有主见的人在管理大量业务。他们中有些人有不同的政治信仰,他们有不同——在某种程度上,他们看问题的视角与我们不同。但就拥有一种共同、强大、积极向上的文化而言,我看没有哪家大型上市公司能比伯克希尔做得更好。而且我认为这种文化会延续下去,因为人们很大程度上是主动选择加入这种文化的。文化会被传承。你得做与文化一脉相承的事,所以你说的也就是你做的。你不会看到有人说,“我们是一个了不起的合伙人关系”,然后扭头就给自己投票通过了巨额的期权方案。然后又有一大批人在他们下面也照样发期权,因为不想看起来所有好处都被上面的人独吞了,还要安排——我前几天读到一笔交易,潜在报酬可能高达几十亿、上百亿美元。我们就不指名道姓了。但我们的文化已经尽可能好了。而且我要说,总体而言,它还在不断增强。我们始终有少数人并没有完全认同这种文化。我的意思是,这不可能是百分之百。但它已经无限接近了。而且我认为,随着时间的推移,它会越来越接近。我们将会继续——我们会努力保持言行一致,去强化这种文化,而不是稀释它。而且我认为,这不仅对查理和我有效,对我们的继任者也会极为有益。它不会是完美的。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, I think the culture is very, very strong. And I think it gets reinforced — frankly, I think it gets reinforced by the shareholders we have. I mean, we have a different body of shareholders and we look at those shareholders, I think, in a somewhat different way than a good many other companies do. I mean, I think there are a fair number of public companies that wish they didn't have, you know, public shareholders. We're happy to have public shareholders. And we like having individual shareholders. And we don't favor institutions. And we're not going to, you know, give guidance and talk especially to them on investor calls and all that sort of thing. We want our — we want it to be directly with — we want shareholders who are partners, basically. And it begins with that. It goes to the directors. We have directors who are not — well, I've been on 19 boards, and I've never seen another board like ours. And I think it's terrific that we've got the people who represent, in many cases, lots of shares themselves. They didn't gets special deals. It's a group of owner-oriented, Berkshire-conscious, business-savvy owners. And we don't have anybody on the board because they're a leading, you know, educator or whatever it may be. We want people who, basically, think about how to run a business well for themselves and for their partners. And we've got managers who fit into that culture, who have chosen that culture in coming with us. And sometimes we have the second or the third or fourth generation, say at the Nebraska Furniture Mart, that share that. Is it perfect? No, it's far from perfect. I mean, you don't get everybody thinking the same way. We have people — we have people that are very independently minded running a lot of businesses. And some of them have different political beliefs, they have different — they see through different lenses than we do, to some degree. But in terms of having a common, strong, positive culture, I don't think there's any big public company that has it any better than Berkshire. And I think that will continue because people opt into it to a great deal. Cultures get passed along. You do things that are consistent with the culture, so you do — what you talk about is what you do. And you don't find people saying, you know, "We're a wonderful partnership," and then voting themselves, you know, huge options. And then a whole bunch of other people will say options beneath them because they can't look like they're taking it all for themselves, and arranging — I read about some deal where it could pay off with many, many, many billions of dollars, the other day. We won't name names. But we've got as good a culture as you can get. And I would say, net, it grows stronger. We have a few people all of the time that really don't buy into it entirely. I mean, it is not 100 percent. But it's as close to it. And I think it gets closer all the time as we go along. And we will keep — we will try to keep behaving in a way that reinforces it and doesn't dilute it. And I think that will not only work for Charlie and me but it will work for our successors very well. It won't be perfect. Charlie?

查理·芒格每次我来参加这类会议,并出席经理人午餐会,在午餐结束时,我都会更加强烈地感到,即便现任管理层离任,伯克希尔·哈撒韦的文化和价值观还会长久地、持续地传承下去。事实上,我认为即便所有现任的经理人都离开了,它仍将继续。我认为我们在这里开创了一种行之有效的东西,足以让它持续下去。而它能够持续的一个原因就在于,它不是那么容易复制的。因此,已有的这一套很可能会一直、一直延续下去。想想看,直接复制伯克希尔体系的尝试有多么少见。

CHARLIE MUNGEREvery time I come to one of these meetings and sit in the manager's luncheon, I feel more strongly at the end of the luncheon that the culture and values of Berkshire Hathaway will go on and on for a long time after the present management is gone. In fact, I think it'll go on after all of the present managers are gone. I think we've started something here that will work well enough that it will last. And one of the reasons it will last is it's not that damned easy to duplicate. So the one that is present is likely to just keep going and going. Think of how little direct copying of the Berkshire system there's been.

沃伦·巴菲特但它连过去那样的回报都产生不了了。

WARREN BUFFETTBut it won't produce the returns it's produced in the past even.

查理·芒格不,我认为它会持续很长时间,原因很简单。它会——

CHARLIE MUNGERNo, I think it's going to last a long time for a very simple reason. It's going to —

沃伦·巴菲特它行之有效。

WARREN BUFFETTIt works.

查理·芒格——它配得上长久存在下去。

CHARLIE MUNGER— deserve to last a long time.

沃伦·巴菲特它行之有效。

WARREN BUFFETTIt works.

查理·芒格而且它确实会奏效。

CHARLIE MUNGERAnd it's going to work.

支持伯克希尔保险业务所需的现金

Cash needed to support Berkshire insurance operations

沃伦·巴菲特好的。(掌声)4 号站。

WARREN BUFFETTOK. (Applause) Station 4.

现场股东我叫克里斯蒂安·马克思。我是来自德国科隆的一名自豪的股东。很荣幸来到这里。我的问题与伯克希尔的保险业务有关。当我查看过去二十年的季度资产负债表时,我注意到一个模式,想请您讨论一下。现金加上固定收益证券的总和总是徘徊在保险浮存金金额的 100% 左右。因此,我的问题是,是否可以说,截至三月份,伯克希尔合并报表的 1280 亿美元现金加上固定收益证券中,有 1160 亿美元实际上需要用于支持保险业务?

AUDIENCE MEMBERMy name is Christian Marx. I'm a proud shareholder from Cologne, Germany. It is my pleasure to be here. My question relates to the Berkshire insurance operations. When I look at the quarterly balance sheets of the last two decades, I noticed a pattern that I kindly ask you to discuss. The sum of cash plus fixed income always hovers around 100 percent of the amount of insurance float. Therefore, my question is, is it fair to say that from the 128 billion of consolidated cash plus fixed income as of March, 116 billion are actually needed to support the insurance operations?

沃伦·巴菲特不,我很感激——

WARREN BUFFETTNo, I appreciate —

查理·芒格答案是不。是的。

CHARLIE MUNGERThe answer is no. Yes.

沃伦·巴菲特答案是不。但他值得得到一个解释,说明这是怎么回事——也许我没有像他那样看待这个问题。我们更希望这个数字接近 20 亿,而不是 1160 亿。我们并不会将浮存金与现金或固定收益进行关联,或者说,我们实际上并不会衡量浮存金,然后决定往现金或固定收益里放多少钱或留多少钱。事实是——我们的浮存金在持续增长。最近我们的——这是有意为之,而且对我们来说一直很棒——我们的现金及现金等价物也在增长,这是因为收购的竞争变得异常激烈,一方面是企业买家手里积攒了大量资金,另一方面是因为债务变得非常便宜,以及各种因素的综合作用。但我不认为这些因素是永久性的。事实上,说它们不是永久性的,是相当合理的。问题只是它们何时会改变。正如查理所说,我们完全没有把现金及现金等价物和浮存金挂钩。浮存金是(听不清)。浮存金在第一季度增加了 20 亿美元。而且,浮存金不可能在短期内大幅缩水。从结构上看,它已经被设定为不会——它不可能缩水。实际上,我认为它在未来一段时间内还会略有增长。我是说,我一直对它的增长量感到惊讶。我们的浮存金比世界上任何一家财产意外保险公司都多。所有这些都源于杰克·林沃尔特建造的那栋小楼,他选择那个位置是因为它靠近网球场,这真是太不可思议了。(笑)好了,卡罗尔。哦,还有查理。

WARREN BUFFETTThe answer is no. But he deserves an explanation of how this — maybe I haven't looked at it the way he's looked at it. We would much rather have a number closer to 20 than to have 116. And we do not correlate or, in effect, measure the float and then decide how much to put or leave in cash, in fixed income. The fact —our float keeps growing. And lately our — which is by design and has been terrific for us — and our cash and cash equivalents have has grown because the competition for acquisitions has become much stronger as — both as money has piled up with the buyers of businesses and because debt has been so cheap and a variety of factors. But I don't think those are necessarily permanent. In fact, it would be reasonably true they aren't permanent. It's just a question of when they change. We are not tying, as Charlie said, we're not tying the cash and cash equivalents at all to float. The float is (inaudible). The float went up $2 billion in the first quarter. And there is no way that that that float can shrink a lot in any short period. It just structurally has been set up in such a way that it will not — it cannot shrink. And actually, I think it'll grow a little bit for a while. I mean, I've always been amazed by how much it has grown. We've got so much more float than any property-causality company in the world. And it's pretty amazing that it all came from that little building that Jack Ringwalt built and picked the location because it was near the tennis courts. (Laughs) OK, Carol. Oh, and Charlie.

查理·芒格最近有一些令人鼓舞的事态发展。部分现金已经用于购买我们远优于现金的证券。我们还有大量剩余的现金,这些现金可能会被配置到我们可能非常喜欢的、比国库券更好的证券上。敬请期待。

CHARLIE MUNGERThere are encouraging recent developments. Some of the cash has gone out recently for securities we vastly prefer over the cash. And we have a lot of cash that could be — remaining — that could be deployed in securities we might like a lot better than Treasury notes. So stay tuned.

沃伦·巴菲特是的,说得简单点,第一季度我们从运营中赚了略多于 50 亿美元。我们的支出大概只相当于折旧额。正常情况下我们的支出会略高于这个数。但这是 50 多亿。浮存金净增加了 20 亿。所以,这就有 70 亿——基本上在第一季度——如果我们不做点什么的话,这笔钱本来会加到我们的现金里。但我们的现金及现金等价物反而减少了,因为我们净投入股票的资金比流入的这 70 亿还要多几个百分点。但我们的情况是,即使浮存金没有变化,每周也有大约 4 亿美元流入伯克希尔,这非常舒服。(笑)我们会——我们希望能做到每周有超过 4 亿美元流入生产性资产。我们在第一季度成功地做到了这一点。而且,总体而言,第一季度我们的处境得到了改善。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, to make it very simple, in the first quarter we earned five and — from operations we earned a little over $5 billion. Now, we only spent about our depreciation. Normally we would spend somewhat more than that. But that's 5-and-a-fraction billion. Two billion came, in net, from float. So that's $7 billion that — basically in the first quarter — that would have been added to our cash if we hadn't done something with it. And instead our cash and equivalents went down, because we, net, invested more in equities by some margin than the seven that came in. But we do have this position where, even absent a change in float, about 400 million comes into Berkshire every week, which is very comfortable. (Laughs) And we will — we want to get it so that more than 400 million is going out into productive assets. And we succeeded in doing that in the first quarter. And, net, net we improved our position in the first quarter.

“轻资产经济”新时代中“惊人”的盈利

"Amazing" earnings in the new "asset-light economy"

沃伦·巴菲特卡罗尔?

WARREN BUFFETTCarol?

卡罗尔·卢米斯您 1999 年在《财富》杂志的文章里说,您认为企业税后利润不太可能长期保持在 6% 以上,原因不仅在于竞争,还在于公共政策。您在文章中写道:“如果企业投资者作为一个整体,要吃掉经济蛋糕越来越大的份额,那就得让其他某个群体接受更小的份额。这自然会引发政治问题。”2008 年以来,企业税后利润一直占 GDP 的 8% 到 10%。您认为这是美国经济的永久性转变吗?当然,我们还得考虑最新的税改法案。还是说,企业利润会回到 20 世纪常见的 4% 到 6% 的 GDP 占比区间?

CAROL LOOMISIn your 1999 article in Fortune magazine, you stated your belief that after-tax corporate profits were unlikely to hold much above 6 percent for any sustained period, due not only to competition but also to public policy. You stated in the article, "If corporate investors, in aggregate, are going to eat an ever-growing portion of the economic pie, some other group will have to settle for a smaller portion. That would justifiably raise political problems." Since 2008, after-tax corporate profits have been 8 to 10 percent of GDP. Do you believe that is a permanent shift in the U.S. economy? And of course, we have to think about the latest tax bill. Or will corporate profits revert back to the 4 percent to 6 percent of GDP range that was normal in the 20th century?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,这段时间的发展确实很有意思。其实还可以追溯到更早一点。但现在,按市值计算,美国最大的四家公司——在一个 30 万亿美元的市场里——有四家公司基本上不需要任何净有形资产。往前推很多年,如果你看看最大的公司——卡罗尔以前发布过《财富》500 强榜单。你知道,排名靠前的是 AT&T、通用汽车,还有埃克森美孚——这些公司需要大量资本才能产生收益。所以,美国工业的整体盈利能力在过去二三十年里变得极其惊人。你去看标普 500 指数的净资产收益率,也就是收益占净有形资产的比例,剩下的就只是——如果你花 10 亿美元买一家净资产只有 100 万美元的公司,它的净资产还是 100 万美元。意思是你只是多付了钱。所以公司的基础盈利能力非常巨大,哪怕你的投资价格可能高得多。我觉得,如果你把标普 500 指数成分股的有形净资产收益率跟 20 年前比一下,结果会让你目瞪口呆。这其实是因为经济变得有点——你可以称之为——轻资产化。你知道,那四家公司赚了 10%——它们在全部美国上市公司的总市值里占了将近 10%,而它们基本不需要任何资金。这是一个变化中的世界。税率下降后,它们还会赚得更多。我觉得人们还没有完全消化市场上发生的一切。你想,安德鲁·卡内基建了一个钢厂,然后还清债务。或者他借点钱,再建另一个钢厂,诸如此类。但那是资本极度密集的模式。一个行业接一个行业都是这样。AT&T 就是资本极度密集的。现在,钱都在轻资产——我是说,巨额资金集中在——不仅是轻资产业务,甚至是负资产。你知道,就连 IBM——它现在也没有有形——它的净有形资产是负的。这没什么不对。这很棒。但这已经不是我们 30 年前生活的那个世界了。从这个意义上说,我在 1999 年写那篇文章的时候,没有预见到这种情况。它并没有特别改变重资产公司的盈利能力。我是说,不像石油行业。如果你拿 90 年代资本最密集的五个行业来看,我不认为它们的有形资产收益率提高了很多。但你会发现,有一个群体发生了这种变化,它们基本上完全不需要净有形资产,或者只需要极少量。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTWell, it's been an interesting development during that period. It goes back a little bit before that period. But you now have the four largest companies, by market value, in the United States — a $30 trillion market — you have four companies that essentially don't need any net tangible assets. And if you go back many years, I mean, if you looked to the largest companies — Carol used to put out the Fortune 500 list. And you know, it would be AT&T and General Motors, and it was companies that — Exxon Mobil — it was companies that just required lots of capital in order to produce earnings. So American industry has gotten incredibly more profitable, in aggregate, in the last 20 or 30 years. You look at the return on the S&P 500, the earnings as a percent of net tangible assets, and the rest is just, you know, if you buy a company that has a million dollars' worth of net worth and you pay a billion for it, it still only had the million dollars' of net worth. I mean you just paid more for it. So the basic profitability of the company is huge, even though your investment may be at a significantly higher price. So that what has happened is that, I think if you look at the earnings on tangible net worth of the S&P 500 and compare it to 20 years ago, it is amazing. And that is really due to the fact that this has become somewhat, you could call it an asset-light economy. And you know, those four companies that earn 10 percent of the — they comprise close to 10 percent of the market value of the entire publicly-traded corporate America, they don't — and they don't take any money, basically. And that is a changing world. And they will earn even more money with the tax rate going down. And I don't think people have quite processed all that information in terms of what has gone on in the market. You don't — you know, [Andrew] Carnegie built a steel mill, and then he paid it off. Or he borrowed a little money, and then he built another steel mill, and all of that sort of thing. But it was enormously capital-intensive. And one industry after another. AT&T was enormously capital-intensive. And now the money is in the asset-light — I mean, huge money is in the — not only asset-light business — but the negative asset. You know, IBM even, you know, had — it has no tangible — it has a net — minus tangible net worth. There's nothing wrong with that. It's terrific. But it is not the world we lived in 30 years ago. And in that sense, I didn't see that coming in 1999 when I wrote whatever I wrote there. It hasn't changed the profitability of the asset-heavy companies particularly. I mean, it isn't like oil. If you take the five most capital-intensive industries in the '90s, I don't think you'll find that their earnings on tangible asset have increased a lot. But you will find that this group has moved in that really doesn't — they don't need any net tangible assets at all, or they need very minor amounts. Charlie?

查理·芒格还有很多金融工程提高了杠杆率,哪怕是在资本密集型行业里。而且,你知道,尽管沃伦写那篇很有学术味道的文章时可能预测得有点偏差,但他的投资并没有错。这正好说明,做这种经济预测很难。

CHARLIE MUNGERThere's also a lot of financial engineering that's raised leverage, even in the capital-intense businesses. And you know, while Warren may have predicted a little wrong when he wrote that very scholarly article, he didn't invest wrong. And so it just shows that it's hard to make these economic predictions.

沃伦·巴菲特好的,乔恩——

WARREN BUFFETTOK, Jon —

查理·芒格在那个预测上我们并不怎么正确,沃伦。

CHARLIE MUNGERWe weren't very right on that one, Warren.

沃伦·巴菲特是啊,实际上,那之后股市的表现倒是相当准确。(笑)

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, actually, the performance of the stock market since then has been pretty accurate. (Laughs)

查理·芒格是的。确实如此。

CHARLIE MUNGERYes. That's true.

沃伦·巴菲特是啊。因为错误的原因做对了,或者因为正确的原因做错了之类的。(笑)

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Being right for the wrong reason or something. (Laughs) Or wrong for the right reasons.

我们对 AIG 的 102 亿美元追溯保费“仍然感觉不错”

"We still feel OK" about AIG's $10.2 retroactive premium

沃伦·巴菲特不管怎样,乔纳森?(笑)

WARREN BUFFETTAnyway, Jonathan? (Laughs)

乔纳森·布兰特去年初,伯克希尔从 AIG 收到了 102 亿美元的追溯保费。如果向上修正后的 182 亿美元最终赔付估计是正确的,那么在考虑有利的税收因素后,这笔浮存金的成本,会比伯克希尔为期限相近的借款支付 100 亿美元利息更低还是更高?

JONATHAN BRANDTBerkshire received a 10.2 billion retroactive premium from AIG early last year. If the upwardly revised estimate of 18.2 billion of ultimate claims proves to be correct, will the cost of float, adjusted for favorable tax attributes, likely be lower or higher than what Berkshire would have paid to borrow 10 billion for a similar duration?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我们当初接受这项交易时,当然是认为成本会更低。这是一个有趣的情况。本质上,AIG——它是全球最大的财产意外险公司之一,尤其是商业财产意外险领域——它说:“我们想把我们在 2015 年 12 月 31 日之前发生的、占我们国内业务很大一部分的所有损失都转给你,我们会先支付前 250 亿美元。然后,当我们支付了 250 亿美元、AIG 支付了 250 亿美元之后,你再支付下一个 250 亿美元的 80%。”他们为此给了我们 100 亿美元。如果我们对赔付金额和赔付时间的估计是正确的,结果应该会比我们借一笔同等金额的钱更划算。我们做过大概十次,也许是十二次这样的大交易。我们保持着纪录。十年前或更早,我们为伦敦劳合社做过一次,现在又跟 AIG 做了。有时我们的估计偏低,有时到目前为止偏高。AIG 刚刚公布——我想他们在这些 2015 年 12 月 31 日之前的损失上已经支付了 150 多亿美元。他们支付了 150 多亿美元。但越往后,赔付金额往往会逐年递减。所以我想说,我们仍然感觉不错。我们最终还是会偏到一边。要估算那些可能二三十年都无法结清的损失,谁都一样。但到目前为止,在我们做过的所有这些交易中,整体情况还算不错。对于 AIG 这笔交易,我认为我们会不错。我也认为 AIG 觉得我们会不错。我是说,它们参与进来也有自己的充分理由。所以看起来还行。抱歉讲了这么多技术性的东西,但乔纳森总是问我这种问题,所以我得准备好回答——我是想回答的。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, we certainly go in with the idea that it will be — the cost will be lower. And it's an interesting situation. We — essentially, AIG, which is one of the largest property-casualty, particularly commercial property-casualty companies in the world, said, "We want to give you all of the losses that we incurred in a very big percentage of our domestic business before December 31st of 2015, and we will pay the first 25 billion. And then after we pay 25 billion and AIG pays $25 billion, then you pay 80 percent of the next 25 billion." And they gave us $10 billion for doing that. And that's — If we are correct about our estimates of how much money will be paid and when it will be paid, we should come out being better off than if we had borrowed a similar amount. We have a history of doing 10 or so — maybe 12 — big deals like that. We hold the record. We did it for Lloyd's of London 10 or more years ago, and we did it now with AIG. And sometimes we've been on the low side in our estimate, and sometimes we've been on the high side so far. AIG just said that they — I think they paid 15-and-a-fraction billion on these pre-12/31/2015 losses. They paid 15-and-a-fraction billion. But the payments tend to trickle down over years as you get further away from when the losses occurred. So I would say that we still feel OK about it, and we'll be wrong one way or the other. Everybody is when you estimate losses that may not get settled for 20 or 30 years. But so far, on the group as a whole of these deals we've done, we've been OK. And I think on the AIG thing, we think we'll be OK. And I think AIG thinks we'll be OK. I mean, they entered into it for good reasons of their own. So it looks OK. Sorry to get into this technical stuff, but Jonathan always asks me questions like that, so I have to be ready to — I want to answer them.

“我们想要的产品,是那种让人想亲你的”

"We really want products where people feel like kissing you"

沃伦·巴菲特好的,5 号站。

WARREN BUFFETTOK. Station 5.

现场股东下午好。我是弗吉尼亚州弗吉尼亚海滩市 Sterling Capital 的亚当·伯格曼。今天和女儿米歇尔一起来的,她也在弗吉尼亚海滩市,读开普亨利学院。

AUDIENCE MEMBERGood afternoon. My name's Adam Bergman with Sterling Capital in Virginia Beach, Virginia. I'm here with my daughter Michelle from Cape Henry Collegiate in Virginia Beach.

现场股东嗨,沃伦,嗨,查理。

AUDIENCE MEMBERHi Warren, hi Charlie.

现场股东我们的问题是,当您在一门好生意里去估算某个具体产品未来成功的程度、并做出比较时——比如,您投资了美国运通和可口可乐,而不是大来俱乐部(Diners Club)或皇冠可乐(RC Cola)——您是怎么预测的?谢谢。

AUDIENCE MEMBEROur question for you is how you go about attempting to forecast the degree of future success of one specific product in a good business versus another, such that you invest in American Express and Coca-Cola rather than Diners Club or RC Cola, for example. Thanks.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,美国运通——(笑)——那是个挺有意思的情况,因为大来俱乐部先进入了这个市场。我觉得美国运通,从某种角度说——我的意思是,他们做信用卡有多个原因——但主要还是因为担心旅行支票的未来。虽说旅行支票到现在还有相当规模。有意思的是,美国运通跟大来俱乐部和签账卡(Carte Blanche)竞争时,我记得那时候还有这家公司,他们没有比大来俱乐部收费更低、觉得自己是后来者就靠低价抢市场,反而是收费更高,我记得是这样。卡上印着美国运通的百夫长标志。我有一张,1964 年办的,他们在那之前就已经有这业务了。这张卡随着时间推移价值越来越大,商户覆盖面也更广。说实在的,如果你是个销售员,跟客户出去,掏出那张带百夫长的美国运通卡,你看起来就像 J.P. 摩根。要是掏出大来俱乐部,上面花花绿绿一堆标志,看起来就像是个靠开空头支票过活的人——(笑声)有个人叫拉尔夫·施奈德——拉尔夫·施奈德和阿尔·布卢明代尔创立了大来俱乐部。他们很聪明,率先进入市场,但后续怎么经营就不聪明了。皇冠可乐,你也知道——可口可乐之后各种可乐都冒出来了。你回到 1886 年,在雅各布药房搞出了个极其成功的产品,没过多久就会出现无数模仿者。但可口可乐确实才是名副其实的那一个。你要是给我皇冠可乐,说“我半价卖给你”,就喝起来的口感而言,我是说,这产品 1900 年的时候,6.5 盎司一瓶,卖 5 美分。现在你要是周末买、批量买,也花不了更多钱。这份报纸 1942 年是 3 美分。我是说,你花的钱所换来的实际享受,按通胀调整后的金额算,下降得相当厉害。所以它是个物超所值的产品。你得看看——喜诗糖果,你要是住在加州,是个十几岁的男孩,去女朋友家送一盒糖给她或者她父母,然后她亲了你,你知道,这时候价格敏感度就没了。(笑声)所以我们确实想要那种让人想亲你的产品——(笑)——而不是想扇你一巴掌的。这事很有意思。我是说,本质上我们是在押注苹果产品的生态系统,但——核心是 iPhone。我在那上面看到了一些特征,让我觉得这东西相当了不起。但我也可能看错。到目前为止,我想说我们在美国运通和可口可乐上是做对了的。美国运通 60 年代——63 年 11 月爆发了那次巨大的沙拉油丑闻,正好是[总统约翰·]肯尼迪遇刺那会儿。大家确实担心过公司能不能活下去。但没人停止使用他们的卡,没人停止使用他们的旅行支票。而且他们的旅行支票收费比同行高。所以消费类产品上有些东西,有时候能让你对未来有相当不错的洞察。然后有时候我们也会犯错。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTWell, with American Express — (laughs) — it was an interesting situation, because Diners Club got there first. I think American Express, in a certain sense — I mean, they did it for a lot of reasons — but they went into the credit card business because they were worried about what was going to happen to traveler's checks. And — although traveler's checks are — still exist in a significant way. But the interesting thing when American Express went into competition with Diners Club, and with Carte Blanche, as I remember that — which also existed at the time — was that instead of charging less than Diners Club and going in figuring they were going against the established guy and they'd come in at a lower price, they went in it at a higher price, as I remember. And the American Express centurion was on that card. I've got one that I got in 1964, but they were in it before that. It had more value in time. I mean, it got better representation. And frankly, if you were a salesperson out with somebody, and you could pull out that American Express card with that centurion, you looked you were JP Morgan. And if you pulled out the Diners Club, it had a whole bunch of flashy symbols, you looked like a guy that was kiting his checks from one month to the next, and — (Laughter) A fellow named Ralph Schneider — Ralph Schneider and Al Bloomingdale developed the Diners Club. And they were very smart about getting there first, but they weren't smart about how they merchandised it subsequently. RC Cola, you know, it did — there are all kinds of colas that came after Coke. I mean, you know, you go back to 1886 and come up with something at Jacobs' Pharmacy that's incredibly successful, you know, fairly soon you're going to get lots of imitators. But Coke really is the real thing. And you know, you offer me RC Cola and say, "I'll give it to you at half the price of Coca-Cola," in terms of drinking it, I mean, just, this is a product that's 6 1/2 ounces, sold for a nickel in 1900, you know. And now if you buy it on the weekend and buy it in large quantities and everything, you're not paying that much more. This newspaper was three cents in 1942, you know. I mean, the amount of enjoyment per real — in terms of the real — of what you pay for this, has gone dramatically down in inflation-adjusted money. So it is a bargain product. You know, you have to look at — See's Candy, you know, if you live in California and you were a teenage boy, and you went to your girlfriend's house and you gave the box of candy to her or to her mother or father and she kissed you, you know, you lose price sensitivity at that point. (Laughter) So we really want products where people feel like kissing you, you know — (laughs) — rather than slapping you. It's an interesting thing. I mean, you know, in effect we're betting on the ecosystem of Apple products, but — led by the iPhone. And I see characteristics in that that make me think that it's extraordinary. But I may be wrong. And you know, so far we've been — I would say we've been right on American Express and Coca-Cola. American Express had this huge salad oil scandal in 1960 happen — in '63, November, right around the time [President John] Kennedy was shot. And there was really worry about whether the company would survive. But nobody quit using the card. Nobody quit using the traveler's checks. And they charged a premium price for their traveler's checks. So there are things you can see around consumer products that sometimes can give you a pretty good insight into the future. And then sometimes we make mistakes. Charlie?

查理·芒格我没什么可补充的,只是想说,如果可口可乐刚发明那会儿有人邀我们投资,我们大概也会说不。

CHARLIE MUNGERI've got nothing to add, except that if we'd been offered a chance to go into Coca-Cola right after it was invented, we probably would have said no.

沃伦·巴菲特我们会拒绝的。是的。

WARREN BUFFETTWe'd have turned it down. Yeah.

查理·芒格我们当时会觉得这事看起来挺蠢的。

CHARLIE MUNGERIt would've looked kind of silly to us.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,除非我们喝过了,查理,听着。(笑)不,他说得对。我是说,我们不会去预判那些我们还没拿到多少证据的东西。而且——

WARREN BUFFETTWell, unless we drank it, now, Charlie, listen. (Laughs) No, he's right. I mean, we don't foresee things that we haven't got a lot of evidence in on. And —

查理·芒格不会。

CHARLIE MUNGERNo.

沃伦·巴菲特如果谈论的是消费品,我们想看到的是它在大量不同场景下的表现,随后我们会借助一些方法——实际上,菲利普·费雪在 1960 年前后写过一本书,叫《普通股和不普通的利润》(Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits)。这是最经典的投资著作之一。书中谈到了投资的“小道消息法”(scuttlebutt method),这跟本·格雷厄姆教我的看数字那套方法相去甚远。但这本书相当值得一读。你只要走出去,多跑跑腿,就能学到很多。现在人们管这叫渠道调研之类的了。不过,你能通过这种方式摸清某些产品的感觉,有些产品却没法这样。而且,你有时也会判断错。但这确实是一种好方法,我会说,这是一项很重要的投资技巧。泰德(韦施勒)和托德(库姆斯)就大量使用这种方法,他们也有帮手——有人帮他们一起做。查理对好市多(Costco)也用过这招。我是说,他——(笑)他无时无刻不在发现好市多的新优点,而且——顺便说一句,他每次都对。好市多对其用户群体有着巨大的吸引力。他们让顾客惊喜连连——他们给顾客带来意外之喜。商业世界里没什么比这更厉害了。一旦你拥有了满心欢喜的顾客,离成功就不远了。

WARREN BUFFETTWe want to see a lot of — if we're talking about a consumer product — we want to see how a consumer product behaves under a lot of different circumstances, and then we want to use something — actually, there was a book by Phil Fisher written around 1960 called "Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits." It's one of the great books on investing. And it talks about the "scuttlebutt method" of investing, which was quite a ways from what Ben Graham taught me in terms of figures. But it's a very, very good book. And you can learn a lot, you know, just by going out and using some shoe leather. Now they call them channel checks now or something like that. But it's — you can get a feel for some products, and then there are others you can't. And then sometimes you're wrong. But it is a good technique. It's an important investing technique, I would say that. And Ted [Weschler] and Todd [Combs] do a lot of that. And they have people — some people that help them out on doing it, too. Charlie's done it with Costco. I mean, he's — (Laughs) I mean, all the time he is finding new virtues in Costco, you know, and then it — and he's right, incidentally. I mean, Costco has an enormous appeal to its constituency. They delight — they surprise and delight their customers. And there is nothing like that in business. You have delighted customers, you're a long way home.

敌意收购并非“邪恶”,但伯克希尔不会发起

Hostile bids aren't "evil" but Berkshire doesn't do them

沃伦·巴菲特好的,贝基。

WARREN BUFFETTOK, Becky.

贝基·奎克这个问题来自 Brightstar Capital Partners 的约翰·赫加蒂(音),他写道:“沃伦,你在卡夫亨氏(Kraft Heinz)准备进行大规模收购(比如联合利华)之际退出董事会,你是否从根本上不认同敌意收购、激进投资和代理权争夺战这类对抗性做法的本质?”

BECKY QUICKThis comes from John Hegarty (PH) at Brightstar Capital Partners, who writes, "Warren, you're stepping down from the Kraft Heinz board at a time when the company's looking to do a large acquisition: Unilever, for example. Do you fundamentally disagree with the combative nature of hostile bids, activist investing, and competitive proxy contests?"

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我们自己不会发起敌意收购。但我并不认为这种做法在根本上有什么不对。你看看《财富》500 强公司,我敢肯定,这 500 家并非全都由世界上最优秀的管理层在经营,有些管理层甚至对投资者不那么友好。所以,我不觉得对一家公司发起敌意收购是什么邪恶或类似性质的行为。只是我们不会这么做,我们也不想卷入这类事情。我们喜欢被我们加入公司的管理层所接纳,因为我们要依靠他们来经营公司,我们也不会带一帮知道怎么改造企业的人过来。在涉及代理投票权争夺之类的事情上,我们极少与管理层持相反立场——极其少见。但我们不排除这种可能。我们不认为每个管理层都理所应当——他们并不对自家企业拥有终身“产权”。但这完全不是我们的风格——唔,我们自己绝不会主动发起,而且我们极、极、极低概率会去支持一场争夺战。不过,这 50 多年来,我们也曾对管理层提出的几项与股票期权有关的议案投过反对票。几年前在可口可乐,我们在投票中表达了弃权意见。但我们认为,在某些情况下,股东对谁该经营公司、薪酬是否合适或类似事项持有不同看法,并不是什么邪恶的事。公司终究还是属于股东的。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTWell, we will not make hostile tenders ourselves. I do not believe that there's anything fundamentally wrong with the idea. I mean, if you take the Fortune 500 companies, I'm sure that all 500 are not managed by the best, or in some cases even the friendliest to investor managements in the world. So I don't think it's evil or anything to conduct a hostile offer for a company. It's just we won't do it, and we don't want to get into that. We like being liked by the managements that we join, because we're counting on them to run the company, and we're not bringing in a whole bunch of people that know how to change businesses. We seldom take a position opposite the management — very seldom — on anything involving a proxy, but — contest of sorts. But we don't rule it out. We don't think every management is entitled to be — you know, they don't have a lifetime hold on their business. But it's not our style at all to — well, we won't do it in terms of initiating it ourselves, and we'd be very, very, very unlikely to support a contest. But we have voted against a couple of propositions over 50 years that managements have had — made — in relation to stocks options. We withheld a vote at Coca-Cola a few years ago to express our opinion. But we don't think it's evil for the shareholders, in some cases, to have different opinions about who should run the company, or whether compensation's appropriate, or matters of that sort. The stockholders still own the company. Charlie?

查理·芒格我没什么要补充的。我一点也不羡慕那些整天陷在敌意喧嚣里的人。想想看,已经那么有钱了,还去干这种事,简直疯了。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERI've got nothing to add to that. I don't envy these people that are in these unfriendly uproars all the time. Imagine doing that after you're already rich. It's insane. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特是啊。是啊,我们当然不会主动去找这种事。我们不——当然,有些公司确实该被挑战,它们有时提出的方案也活该被质疑。但话说回来,这不是我们的主业。顺便提一句,这个问题——刚才那个问题是针对卡夫亨氏问的。3G 资本的人是非常、非常出色的管理者,他们一直是极好的合作伙伴。在参与那家公司之前,我早就下定决心,不再担任任何上市公司的董事了。我前后待过 19 个董事会,太花时间了。他们问我能不能再去待一阵子,我就去了。但真要说起来,一年也就七个半工作日左右。如果你在银行董事会,可能远比这个要多。我是说,也就是——担任上市公司董事通常意味着每季度开一次会,可能再加一次额外的。到了 87 岁,我觉得该经历的都经历过了,这没什么,但我不想一年花七个半工作日,就为了——也许我花五分钟就能打给我信任和敬佩的、同在董事会的朋友,了解下情况或者别的什么,问问冒出来的任何问题。所以,我们是他们的合作伙伴,而且很乐意做他们的合作伙伴。现在我们在卡夫亨氏的董事会有两个人,出差的事交给他们,我待在家里就行。查理,你一共待过几个上市——当然,你现在在好市多,一辈子下来,你进过几个上市公司的董事会?

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Yeah, we are definitely not looking for it. We don't — There are certainly companies that deserve challenge. And they propose things that deserve challenge occasionally. But again, it's not our main activity. And incidentally, this has — the question was asked in reference to Kraft Heinz. The people at 3G are great, great managers. They've been wonderful partners. I had made a determination, before we got involved there, I was going to be on no more public boards. I'd been on 19 of them, and it takes a lot of time. And they asked me if I'd go on for a while, and I did. But it really is, like, seven-and-a-half days or something. And if you're on a bank board, it may be quite a bit more than that. I mean, there just — Being on a public board usually means quarterly meetings plus maybe an extra one. And, you know, at 87, I think I've now learned what happens, and it's fine, but I don't want to spend seven-and-a-half days a year when I — maybe I can call up people that I trust and admire who are on the board in five minutes, you know, and find out what's going on or whatever it may be, any questions that come up. And so we are their partners, and delighted to be their partners. And now we have two people on the board of Kraft Heinz, and they can do the traveling and I can stay home. Charlie, how many public — you're on Costco, of course, over the — your lifetime, how many public boards?

查理·芒格哦,我——好市多——如果不算别的——

CHARLIE MUNGEROh, I — Costco — except for something —

沃伦·巴菲特堪萨斯城电力。

WARREN BUFFETTKansas City Power.

查理·芒格——比如《每日日报》(The Daily Journal)这样我个人参股的公司,好市多是我唯一担任董事的上市公司——

CHARLIE MUNGER— like The Daily Journal where I own part of it, Costco's the only public board —

沃伦·巴菲特你进过堪萨斯城电力的董事会。

WARREN BUFFETTYou were on Kansas City Power.

查理·芒格——只要不是伯克希尔或者我个人全资持有的企业。

CHARLIE MUNGER— if it wasn't Berkshire or something I owned personally.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah.

查理·芒格我进过堪萨斯城电力照明公司(Kansas City Power and Light)的董事会。天哪,那真是很久以前的事了。但基本上,我很少当这种董事。我不羡慕那些周旋于一堆不同董事会之间的人。

CHARLIE MUNGERI was on Kansas City Power and Light. Boy, that goes way back. But basically it hasn't happened. I don't envy people who float around to a lot of different board meetings.

沃伦·巴菲特是,一般来说,你的影响力微乎其微,却要搭进去大量时间。而且麻烦的是,如果你去参加董事会会议,尤其是国际会议——有时他们觉得必须搞一次国际会议,他们就觉得非得占掉你相当一部分时间,否则不值得你千里迢迢赶来。于是你就得坐那儿听大量的展示和讲解,而我——我发现自己早走神了。好了,就这样吧。(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTNo, generally speaking you have very little influence and spend a lot of time. And the trouble is, if you're going to a board meeting, particularly if you get to the international, and sometimes they feel they have to have one that's international, you know, they feel they have to take up a fair amount of your time or it wouldn't have been worth coming, you know, thousands of miles for. So you get a lot of the show and tell stuff and — that — I find my mind drifting. OK. (Laughter)

伯克希尔在国际企业卖家眼中仍未进入雷达范围

Berkshire still not on radar screen of international business sellers

沃伦·巴菲特加里。

WARREN BUFFETTGary.

加里·兰森是的,您说过您正在寻找非保险类的大型收购对象,以便让现金发挥作用。您说这话时,我通常想到的是美国,因为您很看好美国企业。我只是好奇,随着世界其他地区开放和增长,您是否看到更多机会,比如亚洲或欧洲,是否有进行那些大型交易的机会?

GARY RANSOMYes, you've said that you are looking for non-insurance large acquisitions to put that cash to work. And when you've said that, I've usually thought of the United States, because you're a big fan of the U.S. business. And I just was wondering whether you're seeing more opportunities as the rest of the world opens up, grows, whether there's opportunities for some of those mega-transactions in other parts of the world, say Asia or Europe.

沃伦·巴菲特加里,我要说这方面我有点失望,因为我们确实在美国以外看到一些机会,感谢老天,几年前我们在以色列看到的那一个[伊斯卡公司]——当时伊坦[韦特海默]给我写了封信。但——你知道,我们收购了一家企业,它现在已是伯克希尔非常重要的一部分。不过我们仍然——美国以外的企业肯定知道伯克希尔·哈撒韦。但他们不会自然而然就打电话过来。在美国,我认为任何大型企业——特别是私营企业——在考虑做点什么的时候,至少会想到伯克希尔。但在欧洲或亚洲,我们没那么深入人心。他们知道我们,知道我们有很多钱,知道我们喜欢收购。但在美国,我们确实大大地出现在雷达屏幕上,而在美国以外,我们不会那么——他们不会立刻想到要确保考虑伯克希尔这个选项,这和美国不一样。我们尝试过几种方式来推动这一点。但我要说效果一点儿都不好。不过我希望明天,你知道,我能接到来自德国、英国、意大利,随便哪里,澳大利亚,任何地方的电话。我希望接到电话,我们有机会做成交易。有很多国家,我们很乐意大笔投入资金。就像我说的,我们在以色列的经历非常棒。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, Gary, I would say that I've been disappointed in that, because we do see some outside the United States, and thank heavens we saw the one we saw in Israel some years ago [ISCAR] when Eitan [Wertheimer] wrote me a letter. But — and you know, we bought a business which is a very important part of Berkshire now. But we are still not — they're certainly aware of Berkshire Hathaway outside the United States. But they don't sort of pick up the phone automatically. In the United States, I think any large — particularly private — company that thinks — is thinking about doing something, they at least think about Berkshire. But that — in Europe or Asia, that — we are not embedded in the minds the same way. They know about us, they know we've got a lot of money and they know we like to buy things. But we really, we're on the radar screen big-time in the United States, and we're not as — we don't — the immediate desire to be sure that they've thought about the Berkshire option does not occur the same way outside the United States. And we've tried to encourage it a few ways. But I would say that the results have not been great at all. But I hope tomorrow, you know, I get a call from Germany or Britain or Italy or you name it, and Australia, wherever it may be. And I hope I get a call and we get an opportunity to do it. There's a good many countries we'd be quite happy to put substantial money into it. And like I say, our experience in Israel has been just terrific. Charlie?

查理·芒格是啊,但现在企业收购的游戏被杠杆收购和所谓的——管他们叫什么,战略性的,对,战略性收购——严重主导。我通常把那个词翻译成牲口棚里的语言。(巴菲特笑)而且我们——从我们的角度看,价格实在太疯狂了。当然,这让我们很难出手。那些搞杠杆收购的人,他们喜欢巨额杠杆,不介意高价格,连他们自己都开始流鼻血了。这很难。这种环境并不意味着——允许伯克希尔随便出去买下一大堆公司。

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, but the corporate acquisition game now is so driven by the leveraged buyout and the so-called, whatever they call them, strategic, yes, strategic. I usually translate that into barnyard language. (Buffett laughs) And we're so — there's so much craziness in price from our viewpoint. Of course, it's very hard for us to do it. The people in the leveraged buyout game, who love massive leverage and don't mind high prices, even they are getting nosebleeds. It's hard. And it's not an environment that means that — that allows Berkshire just to go out and buy a whole lot of companies.

沃伦·巴菲特你做过哪笔你认为有战略性的交易吗?——

WARREN BUFFETTHave you ever made a strategic deal that you —

查理·芒格我们得等。

CHARLIE MUNGERWe have to wait.

沃伦·巴菲特我们做过一笔你记得的所谓战略性交易吗?

WARREN BUFFETTWe've made a strategic deal that you can remember?

查理·芒格嗯?

CHARLIE MUNGERHmm?

沃伦·巴菲特我们做过哪笔我们会视为战略性的交易吗?

WARREN BUFFETTHave we ever made a deal that we would have regarded as strategic?

查理·芒格我们从来就没有过什么战略计划,除非你对我隐瞒了。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERWe've never had a strategic plan unless you've hidden it from me. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特行吧。答案有了。

WARREN BUFFETTOK. That answers that.

投资“不需要高深学问”

Investing "doesn't require advanced learning"

沃伦·巴菲特6 号座位。

WARREN BUFFETTStation 6.

现场股东嗨,我是来自密苏里州圣路易斯的布雷迪·里奇。1996 年成为股东。

AUDIENCE MEMBERHi, I'm Brady Ritchie (PH) from St. Louis, Missouri. Shareholder since 1996.

沃伦·巴菲特太棒了。

WARREN BUFFETTTerrific.

现场股东沃伦,您和查理过去一直批评商学院及其所教的内容。关于价值投资,在《格雷厄姆-多德都市的超级投资者》一文中,你们展示了许多教育背景各异的伟大投资者的业绩,得出的启示是“遵循这套理念是关键”。如今想要成功,是否仍然只需回到《聪明的投资者》的第八章?另外,您对 CFA、CFP 等项目和资格认证怎么看?它们号称标准很高,却深深植根于学术界?还有,我想约您明天打一局桥牌。(笑声)

AUDIENCE MEMBERWarren, you and Charlie have been critical of business schools in the past and what they teach. With respect to value investing, in "Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville," you featured the returns of many great investors with different backgrounds' work in education, with the lesson being, "Following the philosophy is the key." To be successful today, does it still just fall back to chapter eight of "The Intelligent Investor?" And what do you think of programs and designations such as CFA, CFP, et cetera, which purport high standards yet root it heavily into academia? And I'd like to challenge you to a round of bridge tomorrow. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特最后那句是什么?

WARREN BUFFETTAnd what was the last part?

查理·芒格呃,他是在说——我们对——

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, he was talk — what do we think about —

沃伦·巴菲特对,商学院那套。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, business schools and all that.

查理·芒格——商学院那套。

CHARLIE MUNGER— business schools and all that.

沃伦·巴菲特我没听清最后——

WARREN BUFFETTI didn't catch the last —

查理·芒格它们变好了——

CHARLIE MUNGERThey're better —

沃伦·巴菲特哦,他约我打一局桥牌。好吧。(笑声)我念过三所商学院,在每一所都遇到了一位或两位好老师。我去其中一所,就是冲着某位特定老师去的。但每一所我都找到了一位或两位让我受益良多的老师。因此我们丝毫不反对商学院。不过我们的确认为,那套“神学体系”——比如三十年前,或者四十年前——在有效市场理论之类的东西上,在我们看来,偏离投资的现实相当远。如果让我从第一二三名顶尖商学院的优秀毕业生里挑人,而我的选择是那种——很聪明——但把《聪明的投资者》第八章完全——对他们来说像呼吸一样自然——骨子里就是那样,我宁可要那个来自第八章的人。我们所做的并不是一门复杂的生意。它得是严守纪律的生意,但不需要超高的智商或诸如此类的东西。有几个极为重要的基本原则,另外你确实得懂会计。此外,走出去跟消费者交谈、在很多方面开始像消费者一样思考,也会有帮助。但它就是不需要高深的学问。而我呢——我当然,你知道,我当初不想上大学,所以我不知道如果高中毕业就退学,只读自己读的那些书,结果会更好还是更差。我想,如果你遇见几位了不起的老师,他们在某种程度上确实改变了你看世界的方式,那你很走运。你能在学术界找到他们,也能在日常生活中找到他们。我在这方面运气极佳,拥有很多好老师,包括查理。我是说,查理一直是一位出色的老师。而且,你知道——无论在哪里,只要能碰到一个人,他能给你带来你以前不明白的洞见,或许让你变成比以前更好的人,那你就——非常幸运,你要好好把握。如果你能在学术界找到,就好好把握。如果你能在生活的其他方面找到,也好好把握。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTOh, he's challenged me to a round of bridge. OK. The — (Laughter) I went to three business schools, and at each I found a teacher or two. I went to one specifically to get a given teacher. But at each one of them I found a teacher or two that I really got a lot out of. The — so we're not anti-business school here at all. We do think that the priesthood, say, 30 years ago, for example, in terms of — or 40 years ago — in terms of efficient market theory and everything. They strayed pretty far, in our view, from the reality of investing. And I would rather have a person — if I could hire somebody among the top five graduates of number one, two or three of the business schools, and my choice was somebody that had — was bright — but had chapter eight of "The Intelligent Investor" absolutely — it just was natural to them — they had it in their bones, basically — I'd take the person from chapter eight. This is not — what we do is not a complicated business. It's got to be a disciplined business, but it is — it does not require a super IQ or anything of the sort. And there are a few fundamentals that are incredibly important, and you do have to understand accounting. And it helps to get out and talk to consumers and start thinking like a consumer in many ways in certain — and all of that. But it just doesn't require advanced learning. And — I — I certainly — you know, I didn't want to go to college, so I don't know whether I would have done better or worse if I'd just quit after high school, you know, and read the books I read and all of that. I think that if you run into a few great teachers, and they really change the way you see the world to some degree, you know, you're lucky. And you can find them in — you can find them in academia and you can find them in ordinary life. And I've been extraordinarily lucky in having great teachers, including Charlie. I mean, Charlie's been a wonderful teacher. And, you know — Anyplace you can find somebody that gives you insights into things you didn't understand before, maybe makes you a better person than you would have been before, you know, you get — that's very lucky, and you want to make the most of it. If you can find it in academia, make the most of it. And if you can find it in the rest of your life, make the most of it. Charlie?

查理·芒格嗯,你遇到本·格雷厄姆的时候,他非比寻常,而且非常聪明。这当然对你极有吸引力。后来你发现这套方法管用,而且你坐着就能赚到大钱——(笑声)——你当然立刻就皈依了。所以——

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, when you found Ben Graham he was unconventional, and he was very smart. And of course, that was very attractive to you. And then when you found out it worked and you could make a lot of money while you're sitting on your ass — (laughter) — of course you were an instant convert. And so —

沃伦·巴菲特说真的,我到现在还是很吃这一套。我是说——(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTIt still appeals to me, actually. I mean — (Laughter)

查理·芒格但世界变了。比尔·格雷厄姆——我是说,本·格雷厄姆——在去世前认识到,他自己那种寻找低估公司的具体方法,未必在所有时期、所有条件下都管用。对我们来说,情况当然也是如此。我们逐渐转变为,努力以偏低的价格买入好公司,而不是以偏低的价格买入烂公司。当然,这个方法对我们来说效果相当好。而本·格雷厄姆,他本人大部分时间玩的那个游戏,在他有生之年就已不再盛行。他活着看到了这套方法大部分失效。我的意思是,找到一家股价只有营运资本三分之一的公司,算出来它很容易就能清算,每 1 美元市价能分到 3 美元。在现在的市场上,能找到这种算你运气好。就算找到了,它们也太小了,伯克希尔用不上。所以我们不得不学习另一种游戏。这对在座所有年轻人都是一个启示。如果你打算活很长时间,就必须不断学习。

CHARLIE MUNGERBut the world changed. Before he died, Bill Graham — I mean, Ben Graham — recognized that the exact way he sought undervalued companies wouldn't necessarily work for all times under all conditions. And that's certainly the way it worked for us. We gradually morphed into trying to buy the better companies when they were underpriced, instead of the lousy companies when they were underpriced. And of course, that worked pretty well for us. And Ben Graham, he outlived the game that he played personally most of the time. He lived to see most of it fade away. I mean, just to find some company that's selling for one third of its working capital, and figure out it could easily be liquidated and distribute $3 for every dollar of market price. Lots of luck if you can find those in the present market. And if you can find them, they're so small that Berkshire wouldn't find them of any use anyway. So we've had to learn a different game. And that's a lesson for all the young people in the room. If you're going to live a long time, you have to keep learning.

沃伦·巴菲特没错。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah.

查理·芒格你从前知道的东西永远不够用。所以如果你不学着不断修正自己早先的结论、并且越变越好的话——我总是用同一个比喻,你就像一个在踢屁股大赛里只有一条腿的人。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERWhat you formerly knew is never enough. So if you don't learn to constantly revise your earlier conclusions and get better (inaudible), you are — I always use the same metaphor. You're like a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特要是谁能想出别的比喻,请寄给我。(笑声)顺便说一句,格雷厄姆有一点很重要。他的方法不可规模化。我是说,你没法用很大的资金去做。我在格雷厄姆-纽曼公司工作的时候,他可是整个分析师群体的泰斗。你知道,那时他的才智无人能及。但我们那个投资基金规模只有 600 万美元,跟这家投资公司协同运作的合伙公司也大约有 600 万美元。所以我们运作的资金一共就 1200 万美元。你可以按通胀之类去调整,但那仍是一笔很小的钱。它就是没法规模化。而事实上,格雷厄姆并不在乎,因为他自己对赚大钱没兴趣。所以他也没有理由去找一种能持续做下去、越做越大的模式。因此,第八章的实用价值——把股票看作生意——是极大的。第二十章关于安全边际的实用价值也是极大的。但这些都不是复杂的东西。

WARREN BUFFETTIf anybody has suggestions for another metaphor, send them to me. (Laughter) Graham, incidentally, one point, important point. Graham was not scalable. I mean, you could not do with really big money. And when I worked for Graham-Newman Corp, here he was, the dean of all analysts. And you know, he was an intellect above all others around that time. But our — the investment fund was $6 million, and the partnership that worked in tandem with the investment company also had about $6 million in it. So we had 12 million bucks we were working with. Now, you can make adjustments for inflation and everything. But it was just a tiny amount. It wasn't really scalable. And the truth is that Graham didn't care, because he really wasn't interested in making a lot of money for himself. So he had no reason to want to find something that could go on and on, become larger and larger. And so the utility of chapter eight, in terms of looking at stocks as a business, is of enormous value. The utility of chapter 20 about a margin of safety is of enormous value. But that's not complicated stuff.

查理·芒格我终于弄明白,为什么公司财务学的教授们常常教一大堆错误的东西。我早年在眼睛出问题的时候,去咨询了一位非常著名的眼科医生。我发现,他那里的行医方式还在做一种完全过时的白内障手术。在更好的术式已经发明出来之后,他们还在用刀做切口。我问:“你们在一所了不起的医学院里,为什么还在做这种绝对过时的手术?” 他说:“查理,这种手术教起来真是太棒了。”(笑声)你看,公司财务学里也是这么回事。他们搞出那些公式,教学体验特别好。(笑声)你给学生一个公式,再给一道题目,他们套公式解出来。大家就能实实在在地感受到自己在干正事。(笑声)只有一个问题:全是胡扯。

CHARLIE MUNGERI finally figured out why the teachers of corporate finance often teach a lot of stuff that's wrong. When I had some eye troubles very early in life, I consulted a very famous eye doctor. And I realized that his place of business was doing a totally obsolete cataract operation. They were still cutting with a knife after better procedures had been invented. I said, "Why are you in a great medical school performing absolute obsolete operations?" And he said, "Charlie, it's such a wonderful operation to teach." (Laughter) Well, that's what happens in corporate finance. They get these formulas, and it's a fine teaching experience. (Laughter) You give them a formula, you present the problem, they use the formula. You get a real feeling of worthwhile activity. (Laughter) There's only one there. It's all balderdash.

沃伦·巴菲特没错,每当你听到一种理论被形容成“精巧”时,就得当心了。(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, whenever you hear a theory described as elegant, watch out, you know. (Laughter)

查理·芒格对。

CHARLIE MUNGERRight.

巴菲特“看好人类”——女性进入劳动力市场

Buffett "bullish on human race" as women enter the workforce

沃伦·巴菲特好,安德鲁。

WARREN BUFFETTOK, Andrew.

安德鲁·罗斯·索金这个问题——我们收到了几个类似的问题——来自劳伦·泰勒·沃尔夫,她是 Impactive Capital 的管理合伙人。“沃伦,你最近说过,让你对美国感到乐观的一件事是女性进入劳动力市场,以及‘劳动力中有效利用的人才翻倍’。然而,在领导岗位上,女性在标普 500 指数公司董事会中的比例不到 21%,担任 CEO 的比例更低,只有 5%。作为这些大公司的主要投资者,伯克希尔能做什么,又具体在做什么,来推动董事会层面和高层领导团队中的性别平等?”

ANDREW ROSS SORKINThis question — we got a couple like this one — comes from Lauren Taylor Wolfe. She's a managing partner at Impactive Capital. "Warren, you've recently said that one of the things that makes you optimistic about America is women entering the workforce and the quote 'doubling of the talent that's effectively employed in that workforce.' When it comes to positions of leadership, however, women make up less than 21 percent of boards of S&P 500 companies, and an even smaller 5 percent of the CEOs. "What can Berkshire do, and what is Berkshire specifically doing, as a major investor in many of these large companies, to advance gender equality, both at the board level and among senior leadership?"

沃伦·巴菲特嗯。好吧,再次——(掌声)——你知道,我以前说过,我有个妹妹就在现场。我有两个妹妹,她们绝对和我一样聪明。而且她们性格比我好,认识我们俩——或者我们所有人——的人都能证明。但她们根本没有我当年那样的机会。你看 1942 年,或者《纽约时报》上写的,女性只能当护士、老师、店员或速记员。实际上,这对我小时候——30 年代在奥马哈——极为有利,因为我的老师好得多,因为当时那是对女性开放的工作,我在小学里一个男老师都没有,查理在邓迪上学时我想也没有。我们有这么大的 talent pool(人才池),却被引导到极少的职业机会里,所以市场体系给我们带来的教师质量,比我们应得的好得多。至于——再说一遍,我们的经理们管理他们自己的公司。但在这次管理层调整之前,我在过去五六年里可能只任命了六七个 CEO。我们变动不大。但我要说,我任命的那些 CEO 中,有一半是女性,这大致符合能力上的应有比例。当然,存在一定的 pipeline(人才储备)问题,但这个问题会随着时间解决,你不能永远拿它当借口。你知道,我对我们做的 CEO 任命决策感觉非常好。我更希望我们所有的 CEO 都长生不老。有一位女性就差不多做到了,我们雇的她。B 夫人【内布拉斯加家具城创始人罗丝·布拉姆金】活到 104 岁。她 103 岁才退休。这对我们其他经理人是个教训,要是你提前退休,你知道——(笑声)——谁知道会发生什么。但这是千真万确的。它确实让我感到乐观。它让我对人类感到乐观。当然也对我们的国家感到乐观。因为你看看过去,你知道,在第十九修正案之前,然后之后很长一段时间,而且一直到现在,但——那是——已经有了显著的改善。我确实对未来的感觉更乐观,因为我认为会有更多基于 merit(功绩)的选拔,而不是基于性别、种族或继承。我认为,如果我们的制度是,所有企业都传给长子什么的,那社会的进步会远不如一个 merit-based(基于功绩)的社会。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Well, again — (applause) — you know, as I've pointed out in the past, one of my sisters is here. And I have two sisters that are absolutely as smart as I am. And they have better personalities, as anybody that knows both of us — or all of us — can attest. And they didn't remotely have the same opportunities I had. And you have this 1942, or — New York Times — and you know, women could be nurses or teachers or retail clerks or stenographers. And that actually worked enormously to my advantage when I was a kid in Omaha in the '30s, because I had way better teachers, because they were — that was a job open to women, I didn't have a single male teacher in grammar school, and Charlie didn't when he went to Dundee, I don't think, either. And we had this huge talent pool that was being funneled into very few opportunities, and therefore we got better than we deserved in terms of a market system producing it. The — Again, our managers run their companies. But I've probably named — before we made this management change — I probably named only six or seven CEOs in the last five or six years. We don't change that much. But I would say that half of them that I've named have been women, which is about what you would — what should turn out to be the case in terms of ability. Now, there is a certain pipeline problem, but that gets cured with time, and you can't use that forever as an excuse. And you know, I feel very good about the decisions we made for CEOs. I prefer all our CEOs to live forever. And one woman almost did that, that we hired. Mrs. B. [Nebraska Furniture Mart founder Rose Blumkin] lived to be 104. She retired at 103. And that's a lesson to our other managers, that if you retire prematurely, you know — (laughter) — no telling what'll happen. But it is absolutely true. It does make me bullish. It makes me bullish on the human race. But it's certainly on our country. Because if you look at what happened, you know, before the 19th Amendment, and then after the 19th Amendment for a long time, and continuing to this day, but it's — that — there's been significant improvement. And I do feel more optimistic about the future, because I think there will be more selection by merit, rather than, you know, by gender or by race or by inheritance. I think that if you had a system where all businesses got passed on to the eldest son or something, I think it — I think that society would make a lot less progress than one that's merit-based. Charlie?

查理·芒格嗯,我们确实活在一个不同的时代。有句老话说,过去是个非常陌生的国度。那里的人行为方式大不相同。当时完全不一样。而且很荒谬的是——我记不清了——我高中时有一两个男老师。但几乎没有几个。世界真的变了。在伯克希尔内部,我从未见过任何基于性别的公开歧视。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, we did live in a different age. There's an old saying that the past is a very strange country. People behave quite differently there. And it was just totally different. And it was ridiculous that — I cannot remember — I had one or two male teachers in my high school. But almost none. And the world has really changed. And within Berkshire, I've never seen any overt discrimination anywhere on the grounds of gender.

沃伦·巴菲特但可能有过一些。我是说——

WARREN BUFFETTThere probably has been some, though. I mean —

查理·芒格不,不,我确定我们有我们的——

CHARLIE MUNGERNo, no, I'm sure that we have our —

沃伦·巴菲特哦,有过——

WARREN BUFFETTOh, there has —

查理·芒格——人类本性里所有那些古怪之处。

CHARLIE MUNGER—share of all the peculiarities of human nature.

沃伦·巴菲特当然。

WARREN BUFFETTSure.

查理·芒格但总体而言,一切都在不断改善,你同意吗?

CHARLIE MUNGERBut it's generally, it's — everything has always improved, wouldn't you agree with that?

沃伦·巴菲特同意。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah.

查理·芒格而且我认为还会继续改善。

CHARLIE MUNGERAnd I think it'll keep improving.

伯克希尔回购不受州保险法规限制

Berkshire buybacks not limited by state insurance rules

沃伦·巴菲特好。格雷格?

WARREN BUFFETTOK. Gregg?

格雷格·沃伦沃伦,今年的年报中提到——和往年一样——公司保险子公司的股息支付受到保险法规和其他监管规定的限制,伯克希尔的保险业务目前获准在 2018 年申报不超过 160 亿美元普通股息。我的问题是,我们是否也应将这一年度监管股息上限视为允许股票回购的基准?另外,如果伯克希尔希望回购比这更多的股票,或派发更多股息,您使用保险业务之外的运营资金来回馈额外资本是否会遇到障碍?附带的问题是,BNSF 每年分配给国民赔偿公司并记在其账上的现金,是否不包含在内?

GREGG WARRENWarren, in this year's annual report it was noted, much as it is every year, that payments of dividends by the company's insurance subsidiaries are restricted by insurance statutes and other regulations, with Berkshire's insurance operations currently allowed to declare up to 16 billion as ordinary dividends during 2018. My question here is, should we view this annual regulatory threshold for dividends as a benchmark for allowable share repurchases as well? And in the event that Berkshire wanted to buy back more stock than that, or pay out even more as dividends, would there be an issue with you using capital from operations that aren't held by the insurance operations to return additional capital? With the side question here being, would the annual cash distribution from BNSF, which is held on National Indemnity's books, be excluded?

沃伦·巴菲特没错。我们——显然会遵守我们注册所在州的规定,当然也会遵守所有规则。但基本上,取决于保险公司的注册州,这些州确实限制了任一年度的股息金额,尽管如果你愿意,可以申请额外额度,但我们从不考虑这样做。但回购——如果回购确实极具吸引力,我们会大规模进行。而且,你知道,我不会排除——我们有各种办法来安排,要么做一笔非常大的收购——那是我更偏好的——要么做一笔非常大的回购,但考虑到我们股票的交易方式,我觉得这不太可能发生,不是因为我们不喜欢在大幅折价时回购。所以,查理和我,我们有这个胃口。而且我们会有——我们手头有很多现金——但我们还能拿到更多。我们可以做成任何交易——哪怕是规模极其庞大的交易。我们可以做成任何出现的交易——我们能想办法完成。我们会——我们不会真这么做,但会有愿意进来的合作伙伴,给我们一个合伙安排中的优先份额。不过大概率不会发生。但我们能做的事情很多。所以,别因为保险公司分红的法定限制,就排除任何可能性——

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. The — we will obviously follow the rules of the states in which we're domiciled, and all the rules, of course. But basically it's the state of domestication in the insurance companies, and they do restrict the amount of dividends in any given year. Although you could, if you wanted to, request some additional amount. But we don't ever consider that. But repurchases — if repurchases were really attractive, we would do it in a very big way. And, you know, I wouldn't rule — there's all kinds of ways that we could arrange things to do either a very large acquisition, which is what I would prefer, or a very large repurchase, would I don't think is probably in the cards just because the way our stock trades, not because we wouldn't like it at a large discount. So Charlie and I, we've got the appetite. And we would have — we've got a lot of cash — but we could have a lot more cash. We can make any deal of — even one of a very large size. We can make anything that came along — we could work out how to get it done. We would — we would have — we're not going to be doing this, but we would have partners who would come in and give us a preferential part of a partnership. That's not going to happen, in all probability. But there's a lot of things that we could do. So don't rule out anything based on statutory limitations of distributions from insurance companies —

查理·芒格而且——我们可以拿到特别许可——

CHARLIE MUNGERAnd that — we could get special permissions to —

沃伦·巴菲特哦,我们可以——

WARREN BUFFETTOh, we can get —

查理·芒格——宣布更高的股息。我们不——你们不应认为,我们根据现行法规能拿出的金额,受到了自然法则般的硬性约束。

CHARLIE MUNGER— declare bigger dividends. We are not — you should not assume that we're constrained by the laws of nature to the amount that we can take out under the statutes now.

芒格:“我认为机器智能不会那么大幅度地改变世界”

Munger: "I don't think the world is going to be changed that much by machine intelligence"

沃伦·巴菲特好的,7 号区域。

WARREN BUFFETTOK, station 7.

现场股东嗨,沃伦和查理。感谢你们所做的一切。我是大卫(听不清),一位来自上海的投资经理。我来到这里已经八年了。如果投资是奥运会的一个项目,你们就是我们的冠军队伍。所以我的问题是,面对快速崛起的机器挑战,你们如何看待这种新竞争对未来资本配置效率的影响?对查理来说,从总体经济利益的视角看,资本配置的首要原则是什么?谢谢。

AUDIENCE MEMBERHi, Warren and Charlie. Thank you for everything. I'm David (inaudible), an investment manager in Shanghai. I've been here for eight years. If investment is a sport in the Olympics, you are our champion team. So my question is, facing the fast-growing machine challenges, how do you see the new competition impact the capital allocation productivity in the future? For Charlie, what is the first principle of capital allocation from a general economic interest point of view? Thank you.

查理·芒格嗯,两个问题。机器智能。恐怕我唯一拥有的智能——是由非机器的东西所提供的。而且我不认为我会去学习机器智能。没错。如果你问我如何用自己的智能在围棋上取胜,我做不到。而且我觉得自己年纪太大,学不了计算机科学了。总的来说,我是——我认为机器智能确实取得了成效。毕竟,机器现在能打败最顶尖的人类围棋选手。但我觉得这个领域的炒作成分大于可能取得的实际成就。所以,我并不认为世界会因为机器智能而发生那么大的改变。会有一些变化,但不会是翻天覆地。另一个问题是什么?

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, two questions. Machine intelligence. I'm afraid the only intelligence I have is — is being provided by something that's not a machine. And I don't think I'm going to learn machine intelligence. Yeah. If you ask me how to beat the game of Go with my own intelligence, I couldn't do it. And I think it's too old for me to learn computer science. Generally I'm — I think that the machine intelligence has worked. After all, a machine now can beat the best human player of Go. But I think there's more hype in that field than there is probable achievement. So I don't think the world is going to be changed that much by machine intelligence. Some, but not hugely. And what was the other question?

沃伦·巴菲特呃——

WARREN BUFFETTWell —

查理·芒格其中一个问题是机器智能。

CHARLIE MUNGEROne of them was machine intelligence.

沃伦·巴菲特我觉得他是想问资本配置——

WARREN BUFFETTI think he was getting at capital allocation —

查理·芒格哦,对。这个问题太宽泛了。总的来说,我们一直努力找到最优的——找到值得买的东西。而如果你身处学术界,人的思维会排斥这一点,因为你可以在学期初走进来,做一句断言式的陈述,然后整个学期余下的时间就没什么正事可干了。所以人们总想找到某种公式。这就是我所说的“物理嫉妒”。这些人希望世界像物理学一样。但在物理学领域之外,世界并不像物理学。这种虚假的精确毫无用处,只会给你带来麻烦。所以我会说,你必须掌握那些通用的思想,而且必须像我们所有人一样,通过努力慢慢提升自己的判断力。我并不认为大多数人能从机器智能中获得多少个人收益。

CHARLIE MUNGEROh yeah. That's such a general question. Generally speaking, we're always trying to get the best — to get something that's worth buying. And the human mind rejects that if you're in academia, because you could come in and make one declaratory sentence at the opening of the semester and you wouldn't have anything to do for the rest of the — of your time. So people want to find some formula. It's what I call "physics envy." These people want the world to be like physics. But the world isn't like physics, outside of physics. And that false precision just does nothing but get you in trouble. So I would say you've got to master the general ideas, and you've got to work to improve your judgment slowly, the way all the rest of us had. And I don't think most individuals have much hope of individual gain from machine intelligence.

沃伦·巴菲特是的,我不——我不觉得——看到机器打败围棋选手之类的,或者甚至在国际象棋这类比赛中获胜,我确实觉得了不起。但在资本配置或投资方面,我并不认为它们能带来多少实质帮助。不过,我也可能完全错过了什么,你知道,也许我只是对眼前正在发生的事视而不见。

WARREN BUFFETTNo, I don’t — I don't think that — I'm impressed when machines beat Go or something of the sort, or even win at chess or whatever it may be. I don't really think they bring much to the table in terms of capital allocation or investing. And then I may be missing something entirely, you know, maybe I'm just blind to what's out there.

查理·芒格你是错过了一大堆非常能赚钱、能收管理费的废话。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERYou're missing a lot of very remunerative, fee-earning twaddle. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特是啊,好吧。嗯,这事就说到这儿。我们接下来到 8 号区域。(笑声)

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, well. Well, that takes care of that. So we'll go on to station 8. (Laughter)

芒格:“美国投资者忽视了中国”

Munger: "American investors are missing China"

现场股东尊敬的巴菲特先生和芒格先生,非常感谢你们举办这次股东大会。确实令人叹为观止。谢谢。我叫 Yen(音),是老虎证券的合伙人,这是一家来自中国的领先电子券商。我重新措辞一下。我和同事们飞越了半个地球(录音不清),能来到这里是我们的荣幸,就像在座体育馆里的每一位一样,我们很荣幸来到这里。我的问题是,你们之前提到,投资者其实不必费心去挑对个股。他们只要选对市场和选对国家,就能做得不错。中国是第二大经济体,而且很可能拥有最大的增长潜力。仅靠被动配置一个组合——被动评估一个组合——美国投资者对中国的配置就严重偏低。那么两位认为,是什么阻碍了投资者投资中国?谢谢。

AUDIENCE MEMBERDear Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger, thank you very much for hosting the meeting. It's truly been remarkable. Thank you. My name is Yen (PH), and I'm a partner at Tiger Brokers, a leading electronic brokerage firm from China. Let me rephrase that. So, I and my colleagues flew half a way from the globe with (inaudible) to be here, and it is honor, just like everyone else in the stadium, we're honored to be here. My question is, you mentioned earlier that investors don't really have to be struggling in picking the right stocks. They would do well in picking, probably, the right market and the right country. China is the second-largest economy, and probably has the biggest growth potential. Just by passively weighting a portfolio — by passively valuating a portfolio — U.S. investors are significantly underweighting China. So in your opinion, what are stopping the investors from investing in China? Thank you.

查理·芒格嗯,我想答案是,你说得完全正确。我们——美国投资者确实忽视了中国。他们忽视的原因在于,中国距离遥远,看上去不一样,他们不习惯,情况复杂,新闻标题又让他们感到困惑。换句话说,坐在奥马哈想战胜中国市场,看起来太难了。但我认为你完全正确,中国才是他们应该关注的地方。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, I think the answer is that you're absolutely right. That we are — American investors are missing China. And they're missing it because it's a long way away, it looks different, they're not used to it, it's complicated, the headlines confuse them. In other words, it just looks too hard, sitting in Omaha, to outsmart the Chinese market. But I think you're absolutely right. It's where they should be looking.

沃伦·巴菲特好吧。(笑声)我们其实在中国做过几笔投资。做得相当不错。但也有一些——嗯,如果回到几年前的说(录音不清)。就投入大量资金而言,你知道,几十亿美元的规模,而我们必须把几十亿美元投进去才能——产生任何看得见的影响——在你不太熟悉的市场里,这可能会更难。在任何情况下都很难。但在美国以外的市场累积一个 60 亿、80 亿或 100 亿美元的持仓,可能极其困难。例如,在英国和欧洲大部分地区,当我们持有一家公司 3% 的股份时就必须披露。事实上,即使持股不到 3%,我们也可能被要求披露。当我们有一大群追随者,而且我们在市场上所做的一切被大肆宣扬、可能名不副实的时候,这确实变得非常棘手。有些问题,纯粹是我们这种规模所带来的。如果我们管理一个较小的基金,会容易得多。中石油,我们设法建了一个很大的仓位。但政府持有它 90% 的股份。所以我们买入了政府未持有部分的 14%,但这仍然只占公司总股份的 1.4%。但查理,查理其实一直在推动我在中国多做些事。实际上我们也尝试过几次。有一家公司我们参与过——

WARREN BUFFETTOK. (Laughter) We've actually had a couple investments in China. We've done pretty well. But there were — well, if you go back a number of years, (inaudible). In terms of getting a lot of money into something, you know, many billions, and we have to get billions into things in — to move any kind of a needle, that can be tougher in markets that you've got — you're unfamiliar working in. And it's difficult under any circumstances. But accumulating a 6 or 8 or $10 billion position in investments outside the United States can be very difficult. For example, in U.K. and much of Europe we have to report when we own 3 percent of a company. In fact, we can be asked to report if we even have less than 3 percent. That really gets very tough when we get a bunch of followers and a lot of publicity that probably isn't deserved in terms of what we're doing in the markets and everything. Some of the problems are, just by the nature of our size. It would be lot — it'd be a lot easier if we were running a smaller fund. PetroChina, we managed to get a very big position. But the government owned 90 percent of it. So we bought 14 percent of what the government didn't own, but it was still only 1.4 percent of the company. But Charlie, Charlie actually keeps pushing me to do more in China. And we've tried a couple of times, actually. And there was one operation that we got involved in —

查理·芒格嗯,不过你第一次做得那么差,投了 20 万,拿回来约 20 亿,所以。

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, you did so poorly the first time, you put in 200,000 and got about 2 billion, so.

沃伦·巴菲特是啊。是啊。好吧。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah. Yeah. Well.

查理·芒格激励得还不够啊。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERWasn't encouraging enough. (LAUGHTER)

“杰夫·贝佐斯所做的事,近乎奇迹”

"What Jeff Bezos has done is something close to a miracle"

沃伦·巴菲特好的,9 号站。

WARREN BUFFETTOK. Station 9.

现场股东我是 Sherman Silber 博士,来自圣路易斯的一名不孕不育医生。我身为股东来参加这个会已经 23 年了,非常感谢你们让我的孙子孙女变得非常富有。(笑声和掌声)在医学界——不孕不育界——他们有时把我比作不孕不育领域的伯克希尔·哈撒韦,因为我年纪很大,又来自一个相对较小的城市。但我想知道,你们不仅对苹果,也对所有科技股的看法,比如亚马逊和谷歌。因为你们过去说过避开了它们,理由是它们太复杂,你们应该坚持自己理解的东西。而另一方面,亚马逊和谷歌拥有你们所说的那种极持久的竞争优势。它们几乎没有什么竞争者。在中国,阿里巴巴和腾讯也是如此。所以这似乎有点矛盾,我想知道你们是否会转变思路,进入这些看起来没有激烈竞争的科技公司。

AUDIENCE MEMBERMy name is Dr. Sherman Silber. I'm an infertility doctor from St. Louis. And I've been a shareholder and coming to this meeting for 23 years, and I want to thank you very much for making my grandchildren very rich. (Laughter and applause) And they sometimes compare me in the medical world — infertility world — as the Berkshire Hathaway of infertility, because I'm so old and I come from a relatively small community. But I'm wondering about your interests in not just Apple, but all of the tech stocks, like Amazon and Google. Because you've avoided them, you've stated in the past, because they're complicated, you should stick with something you understand. On the other hand, Amazon and Google have what you call a very durable competitive advantage. They really hardly have any competitor. And that's true in China, too, of Alibaba and Tencent. So it seems like it's a conflict, and I'm wondering if you're going to be turning the corner and going into these tech companies that seem to have no serious competition.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我们当然研究过它们。我们不会去琢磨自己应不应该买科技公司之类的事。我们寻找的是那些竞争优势的持久性得到验证的东西,以及我们是否认为,在对这种持久性的概率进行评估时,我们的看法能比别人的更胜一筹,可以这么说。但事实是,我从一开始就在关注亚马逊,我认为杰夫·贝佐斯所做的一切近乎奇迹。问题是,如果我认为某件事会是奇迹,我一般就不去押注了。(笑)显然,如果我——如果我对某些业务有独到的洞察,结果会好得多——好得多的多。但你知道,事实上,比尔很早就告诉过我——比尔·盖茨很早就告诉过我——你知道,我想我当时还在用 AltaVista,他建议我改用谷歌。可麻烦的是,我看到谷歌跳过了 AltaVista,然后我又琢磨,会不会有人能跳过谷歌。而且我在 GEICO 就看到了,我们花的很大一笔钱,换来的那种东西对谷歌来说增量成本几乎为零。我们研究过它,你知道,我犯了个错误,没能得出一个结论,让我确实觉得在当时的股价下,公司前景远比股价体现的要好。我买入苹果,绝不是因为它是一只科技股。我是说,我买入苹果是因为我得出了一些——形成了一些结论,不仅涉及资本将被如何聪明地运用,更重要的是,涉及一个生态系统的价值,以及这个生态系统能有多持久,它面临哪些威胁,还有一大堆事情。这并不——我不认为这需要我,你知道,去拆开一部 iPhone 或什么,弄清楚里面有什么零件之类。这更多是消费者行为的本质。有些事情让我觉得,比其他事情拥有更强的持久性。但答案是,我们会错过很多东西——或者我会错过很多东西——因为我觉得自己理解得还不够透彻。在投资里,只要你最终在某个时点挥了棒,就不会因为你放过一个落进好球区的球而受罚,然后你知道,你总会找到自己喜欢的投球。我们就继续这么做。我们会努力待在自己的能力圈内。查理和我对能力圈的边界大致在哪里,以及什么样的情况下我们可能在推理、经验或别的什么方面有那么一点优势——我们可能因此对某些事情的评估与别人不同——大体上看法一致。但答案是,我们会错过很多。查理?

WARREN BUFFETTWell, we certainly looked at them. And we don't think of whether we should be in tech companies or not, or that sort of thing. We are looking for things when we do get into the durability of the competitive advantage, and whether we think that our opinion might be better than other people's opinion in assessing the probability of the durability, so to speak. But the truth is that I've watched Amazon from the start, and I think what Jeff Bezos has done is something close to a miracle. And the problem is, if I think something will be a miracle, I tend not to bet on it. (Laughs) It would have been better — far better, obviously — if we — if I had some insights into certain businesses. But you know, in fact, Bill told me early on — Bill Gates told me early on — you know, that I think I was on AltaVista and he suggested I turn to Google. But the trouble is I saw that Google was skipping past AltaVista, and then I wondered if anybody could skip past Google. And I saw at GEICO that we were paying a lot of money for something that cost them nothing incrementally. We've looked at it, and you know, I made a mistake in not being able to come to a conclusion where I really felt that at the present prices that the prospects were far better than the prices indicated. And I didn't go into Apple because it was a tech stock in the least. I mean, I went into Apple because I made certain — came to certain conclusions about both the intelligence with which the capital would be employed, but more important, about the value of an ecosystem and how permanent that ecosystem could be, and what the threats were to it, and a whole bunch of things. And that didn't — I don't think that required me to, you know, take apart an iPhone or something and figure out what all the components were or anything. It's much more the nature of consumer behavior. And some things strike me as having a lot more permanence than others. But the answer is, we'll miss a lot of things that — or I'll miss a lot of things — that I don't feel I understand well enough. And there is no penalty in investing if you don't swing at a ball that's in the strike zone, as long as you swing at something at some point, then you know, eventually that you find the pitches you like. And that's the way we'll continue to do it. We'll try to stay within our circle of competence. And Charlie and I generally agree on sort of where that circle ends, and what kind of situations where we might have some kind of an edge in our reasoning or our experience or something that — where we might evaluate something differently than other people. But the answer is, we're going to miss a lot of things. Charlie?

查理·芒格是啊,我们的体系很棒。如果其中一个人在某方面犯蠢,另一个也同样。(笑声)当然,我们先天就不在成为高科技奇才的最优位置上。我们这个年纪的人,有几个能迅速玩转谷歌?我去过谷歌总部。在我看来他们就像——那里看起来像个幼儿园。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERYeah, we have a wonderful system. If one of us is stupid in some area, so is the other. (Laughter) And of course, we were not ideally located to be high-tech wizards. How many people of our age quickly mastered Google? I've been to Google headquarters. They look to me like they're — it looks like a kindergarten. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特一个非常有钱的幼儿园。

WARREN BUFFETTA very rich kindergarten.

查理·芒格是的。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERYes. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特不,他们做的事情确实令人印象深刻。就像我说的,在 GEICO 的时候,他们上市时我们付给他们一大笔钱。而且三位主要人物——埃里克(施密特)、拉里(佩奇)和谢尔盖(布林)——他们确实来见过我。但他们更感兴趣的是谈论上市及其具体操作之类的事情。并不是说他们做的事对我来说是个谜。谜的是会有多少竞争出现,竞争者的效率有多高,以及这个游戏最终是四五个参与者拼得你死我活、赚的钱还不如一家独大来得多。这些都是很难判断的事情。有些行业即使只有两个玩家,他们也可能干得不怎么样,因为会互相把对方打得头破血流。这也是航空业面临的问题之一。现在比过去好一些了,可过去简直就是自杀。(笑)你知道航空业的竞争因素极其激烈,四家公司以 85% 的载客率运营,比七八家公司以 70% 多一点的载客率运营、且飞机数量更多的情况,到底能好多少?这些判断很困难。但我在谷歌上做了错误的决定。至于亚马逊,我确实觉得那简直是个奇迹——你能一边做亚马逊云服务,一边改变零售业,而且不需要巨量的资本,还能达到亚马逊那样的速度和效率。我只是——我低估了——我第一次见到杰夫的时候,对他能力的评价就已经非常、非常高。可我还是低估了他。(笑)查理?

WARREN BUFFETTNo, it's extraordinarily impressive, what they've done. And like I say, at GEICO we were paying them a lot of money at the time they went public. And all three of the main characters — Eric [Schmidt] and Larry [Page] and Sergey [Brin] — they actually came and saw me. But they were more interested in talking about going public and the mechanics of it and various things along that line. But it wasn't like what they were doing was a mystery to me. The mystery was how much competition would come along, and how effective they would be, and whether it would be a game where four or five people were slugging it out without making as much money as they could if one company dominated. Those are tough decisions to make. You can have industries where there's only two people in it, and they still don't (inaudible) very good because they beat each other's brains out. And that's one of the questions in the airline business. It's a better business now than it used to be, but it used to be suicide, so — (Laughs) And you know that the competitive factors are extraordinary in airlines, and how much better business is it with four people operating at 85 percent capacity than it was at — with seven or eight operating in the mid-70s, and with more planes run. Those are tough decisions. But I made the wrong decision on Google. And Amazon, I just — I really consider that a miracle, that you could be doing Amazon web services and changing retail at the same time, with — you know, without enormous amounts of capital, and with the speed and effectiveness of what Amazon has done. I just — I underestimated — I had a very, very, very high opinion of Jeff's ability when I first met him. And I underestimated him. (Laughs) Charlie?

查理·芒格嗯,我的看法是,股东们有一件事值得庆幸。总部一些与年龄挂钩的蠢事,因为泰德(韦施勒)和托德(库姆斯)加入我们而有所改善。我们现在正借助一些更年轻的眼光来看世界。他们已经做出了贡献——

CHARLIE MUNGERWell, my comment would be that the shareholders have one thing to be thankful for. Some of the age-related stupidity at headquarters has been ameliorated by Ted [Weschler] and Todd [Combs] joining us. We are looking at the world with the aid of some younger eyes now. And they've had a contribution —

沃伦·巴菲特意义重大。

WARREN BUFFETTSignificant.

查理·芒格——超出了他们自己的投资。所以你们作为股东很幸运有他们。因为老一辈人身上有太多无知需要清除。(掌声)

CHARLIE MUNGER— beyond their own investments. And so you're very lucky to have them be shareholders. Because there's a lot of ignorance in the older generation that needs removal. (Applause)

“我们已经有一个家族办公室了。它就在这儿”

"We already have a family office. It's sitting right here"

沃伦·巴菲特好,10 号座位。

WARREN BUFFETTOK, station 10.

现场股东大家好,下午好。沃伦,下午好。查理,下午好。我叫 Yujin,来自中国,就职于恒天财富家族办公室。我们为中国的超高净值个人客户提供服务。您二位是我梦寐以求的客户。我知道您的股东比尔·盖茨有自己的家族办公室,帮他管理财富。所以我的问题是,您有自己的家族办公室吗?能否告诉我们他们做些什么,为您提供任何服务?如果没有,未来您有计划设立一个家族办公室吗?

AUDIENCE MEMBERHi, good afternoon. Good afternoon, Warren. Good afternoon, Charlie. And my name is Yujin. I come from China, and I work for Hen Tian Tsai Fu family office. And we are serving high-worth individual clients in China. And you two would be my dream customer. I know your shareholder Bill Gates has a family office, which, helping his wealth. So my question is, do you have a family office, and what — can we know what they do, some — anything for you? And if not, are you planning to have a family office in the future?

查理·芒格我们已经有一个家族办公室了。它就在这儿。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERWe already have a family office. It's sitting right here. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特是啊,实际上,我们应该是世界上最后一批会设立家族办公室的人。(笑声)周围确实有很多这样的办公室,但——那不适合芒格家族,也不适合巴菲特家族。(笑)查理,你有什么要补充的吗?

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, we would be the last guys in the world to have a family office, actually. (Laughter) There are a lot of them around, and — but it's not something that fits the Munger family or the Buffett family. (Laughs) Charlie, you have anything?

查理·芒格没有。

CHARLIE MUNGERNo.

沃伦·巴菲特好。

WARREN BUFFETTOK.

伯克希尔激励计划没有“精确公式”

No "precise formulas" on Berkshire's incentive plans

沃伦·巴菲特我们——再回答一个。11 号座位。

<<<END P 11>>>

WARREN BUFFETTLet's — we'll do one more. Station 11.

现场股东嗨,沃伦,查理。我叫亚当·米德,来自新罕布什尔州德里市的米德资本管理公司。过去你们提到过与核心高管的一些薪酬安排。能否具体举一些伯克希尔内部薪酬安排的例子,说明如何激励良好行为,同时又不会因为公司规模、业务或行业的相对难易程度而惩罚管理者?谢谢。

AUDIENCE MEMBERHi Warren, Charlie. My name is Adam Mead, Mead Capital Management from Derry, New Hampshire. In the past you have touched on certain compensation arrangements with key executives. Could you please provide some specific examples of compensation arrangements within Berkshire that speak to incentivizing good behavior while not penalizing the manager for size or the relative ease or difficulty of the business or industry? Thank you.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,这是一个非常非常好的问题,也是一个非常非常棘手的问题。因为我们的一些——

WARREN BUFFETTWell, that is a very, very good question, and a very, very tough question. Because some of our —

查理·芒格他其实不想回答。

CHARLIE MUNGERHe really doesn't want to answer.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我们的一些管理者——(笑声)不,我们的一些管理者所在的业务确实容易得多。我的意思是,我们收购了各种各样的企业。人们显然会受到其他地方薪酬安排的影响。他们要是没受到影响,那就不正常了。而要在资本密集度不同、基础盈利能力差异很大、以及多大程度上根据规模上调薪酬之间找到正确的答案,因为存在扩大业务的激励。通常如果业务变得更大,从 CEO 往下,每个人都期望赚更多的钱,尽管他们投入的强度、工作和(听不清)其实跟以前差不多。这确实是个难题。我认为如果你在上市公司里聘请薪酬顾问——所有公司都这么做——他们会推荐那些能让自己被 CEO 推荐给别的公司的方案。(笑)在这种安排下,你只是在跟人性作对。我要说的是,很明显,我们留住了我们一直希望留下的绝大部分管理者。事实上,几乎是百分之百。而且——我认为人们确实喜欢——他们确实喜欢自己做决定。他们确实喜欢得到认可。你知道,大多数人——他们喜欢把工作做好,也喜欢我们理解这一点。薪酬是其中的一部分,但并不是全部。我希望我能给你一些精确的公式,但并没有——

WARREN BUFFETTWell, some of our managers — (Laughter) No, some of our managers are in businesses that are just much easier. I mean, we bought into a variety of businesses. People are obviously influenced by what pay arrangements are elsewhere. They wouldn't be human if they weren't. And trying to come to the right answer when you have different degrees of capital intensity, different degree — very different degrees — of basic profitability, and how much you scale up based on size, because there is an incentive to grow businesses. Usually if businesses get much larger, everybody from the CEO down expects to earn more money for something that — where they really bring the same amount of intensity and work and (inaudible) to it. It is really a tough question. I think that if you engage compensation consultants at public companies, which they all do, they're going to recommend things that cause them to have CEOs recommend them to other companies. (Laughs) It's just, you're working against human nature when you have an arrangement like that. I would say that we have obviously kept a very, very, very high percentage of the managers that we hoped to have stay with us. In fact, just about a hundred percent. It's — And I think people do like — they do like to make their own decisions. They do like recognition. You know, they — most people respond — they like doing a good job, and they like the fact that we understand it. And compensation's part of that. But it's not the whole thing. And I wish I could give you some precise formulas, but there aren't any —

查理·芒格不,你其实没有,沃伦。

CHARLIE MUNGERNo, you really don't, Warren.

沃伦·巴菲特什么?

WARREN BUFFETTWhat?

查理·芒格在伯克希尔,我们对个别的交易保密是一种优势。把它们全都公开没有任何好处。

CHARLIE MUNGERIt's an advantage at Berkshire to keep our individual deals private. There would be no advantage to just publishing them all.

沃伦·巴菲特不会,我们不会那么做。

WARREN BUFFETTNo, we're not going to do that.

查理·芒格不会,当然不会。所以我们是想说,那些决定全是他一个人做的。他什么公式都有。而且他全都保密。这就是我们的行事方式。(笑声)

CHARLIE MUNGERNo, of course not. So what we're saying, he makes all those decisions personally. He's got every formula in the book. And he keeps them all private. That's our system. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我们确实——(笑声)我们披露董事的薪酬。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, we do — (Laughter) We publish what the directors are paid.

查理·芒格我们披露必须披露的信息,没错。

CHARLIE MUNGERWe publish what we have to, yes.

沃伦·巴菲特好。现在是 3 点 30 分。我们将在 3 点 45 分重新开会。查理和我很高兴我们的合伙人基本上都来参加这个会了。所以感谢大家前来。我希望你们在大会上、在奥马哈都过得很愉快。我们期待明年再次见到大家。谢谢。(掌声)

WARREN BUFFETTOK. It's 3:30 now. We're going to reconvene at 3:45. Charlie and I, we love the fact that our partners basically turn out for this. So we thank you for coming. I hope you've had a good time, both at the meeting and in Omaha. And we look forward to seeing you again next year. Thanks. (Applause)

正式会议

Formal business meeting

沃伦·巴菲特我们马上推进——我在这里稍微抢跑一下。请大家入座,谢谢。这是正式会议,大会现在开始。我是沃伦·巴菲特,公司董事会主席,欢迎各位出席 2018 年度股东大会。今天上午,我介绍了伯克希尔·哈撒韦到场的诸位董事,今天与会的还有我们的审计师德勤会计师事务所(Deloitte & Touche)的合伙人。詹妮弗·特塞伦蒂斯(Jennifer Tselentis)是伯克希尔·哈撒韦的助理秘书。她将做会议书面记录。贝基·阿米克(Becki Amick)已获任命为本次会议的选举监察员,她将对董事选举及本次会议上待表决的动议的投票结果作出认证。本次会议指定的代理投票持有人是沃尔特·斯科特(Walter Scott)和马克·汉伯格(Marc Hamburg)。助理秘书是否有关于有权投票并已出席本次会议的伯克希尔流通股份数量的报告?

WARREN BUFFETTWe're going to move it right along — do a little gun-jumping here. If you'll please take your seat, thank you. This is the formal meeting, so the meeting will now come to order. I'm Warren Buffett, chairman of the board of directors of the company, and I welcome you to this 2018 annual meeting of shareholders. This morning, I introduced the Berkshire Hathaway directors that are present and also with today are partners in the firm of Deloitte & Touche, our auditors. Jennifer Tselentis is the assistant secretary of Berkshire Hathaway. She will make a written record of the proceedings. Becki Amick has been appointed inspector of elections at this meeting, and she will certify to the count of votes cast in the election for directors and the motions to be voted upon at the meeting. The named proxy holders for this meeting are Walter Scott and Marc Hamburg. Does the assistant secretary have a report of the number of Berkshire shares outstanding entitled to vote and represented at the meeting?

现场人士这是重要部分。

VOICEThis is the important part.

现场人士你坐那儿。

VOICEYou sit there.

沃伦·巴菲特我们这是故意卖关子呢。(笑)

WARREN BUFFETTWe're building the suspense here. (Laughs)

詹妮弗·特塞伦蒂斯是的,我有。正如随会议通知一起寄给 2018 年 3 月 7 日(本次会议登记日)所有登记股东的委托书中所指出的,当时有 748,347 股伯克希尔·哈撒韦 A 类普通股流通在外,每股有权在本次会议审议的动议上投一票,并有 1,344,969,701 股伯克希尔·哈撒韦 B 类普通股流通在外,每股有权在本次会议审议的动议上投 1/10,000 票。其中,通过截至 5 月 3 日(周四)晚间返回的委托书,本次会议代表了 537,524 股 A 类股份和 823,145,874 股 B 类股份。

JENNIFER TSELENTISYes, I do. As indicated in the proxy statement that accompanied the notice of this meeting that was sent to all shareholders of record on March 7th, 2018, the record date for this meeting, there were 748,347 shares of Class A Berkshire Hathaway common stock outstanding with each share entitled to one vote on motions considered at the meeting, and 1,344,969,701 shares of Class B Berkshire Hathaway common stock outstanding with each share entitled to 1/10,000th of one vote on motions considered at the meeting. Of that number, 537,524 Class A shares and 823,145,874 Class B shares are represented at this meeting by proxies returned through Thursday evening May 3rd.

沃伦·巴菲特谢谢。这个数字已达到法定人数。因此我们将直接进入会议议程。第一项议程是宣读上次股东大会的会议记录。有请沃尔特·斯科特先生向会议提出一项动议。

WARREN BUFFETTThank you. That number represents a quorum. And we will therefore directly proceed with the meeting. First order of business will be a reading of the minutes of the last meeting of shareholders. I recognize Mr. Walter Scott who will place a motion before the meeting.

沃尔特·斯科特我动议免予宣读上次股东大会的会议记录,并批准该记录。

WALTER SCOTTI move that the reading of the minutes of the last meeting of shareholders be dispensed with and the minutes be approved.

沃伦·巴菲特有人附议吗?

WARREN BUFFETTDo I hear a second?

罗恩·奥尔森我附议。

RON OLSONI second the motion.

沃伦·巴菲特动议已提出并获附议。我们将以口头表决方式对此动议进行投票。所有赞成者请说“赞成”。

WARREN BUFFETTMotion has been moved and seconded. We will vote on this motion by voice vote. All those in favor say aye.

现场人士赞成。

VOICESAye.

沃伦·巴菲特反对者?动议通过。下一项议程是选举董事。如果现场有股东此前未提交委托投票书,或希望撤回此前已提交的委托书,可以亲自就董事选举及本次会议审议的其他事项进行投票。请向走道中的会议工作人员表明身份,以便领取选票。有请沃尔特·斯科特先生就董事选举向会议提出动议。

WARREN BUFFETTOpposed. The motion is carried. The next item of business is to elect directors. If a shareholder is present who did not send in a proxy or wishes to withdraw a proxy previously sent in, you may vote in person on the election of directors and other matters to be considered at this meeting. Please identify yourself to one of the meeting officials in the aisles so that you can receive a ballot. I recognize Mr. Walter Scott to place a motion before the meeting with respect to the election of directors.

沃尔特·斯科特我提议选举沃伦·巴菲特、查理·芒格、格雷格·阿贝尔、霍华德·巴菲特、斯蒂芬·伯克、苏珊·德克尔、比尔·盖茨、戴维·戈特斯曼、夏洛特·古曼、阿吉特·贾恩、托马斯·墨菲、罗恩·奥尔森、沃尔特·斯科特和梅丽尔·威特默为董事。

WALTER SCOTTI move that Warren Buffett, Charles Munger, Greg Abel, Howard Buffett, Stephen Burke, Susan Decker, William Gates, David Gottesman, Charlotte Guyman, Ajit Jain, Thomas Murphy, Ron Olson, Walter Scott, and Meryl Witmer be elected as directors.

沃伦·巴菲特有人附议吗?

WARREN BUFFETTIs there a second?

罗恩·奥尔森我附议。

RON OLSONI second the motion.

沃伦·巴菲特动议已获提议和附议,提名沃伦·巴菲特、查理·芒格、格雷格·阿贝尔、霍华德·巴菲特、斯蒂芬·伯克、苏珊·德克尔、比尔·盖茨、戴维·戈特斯曼、夏洛特·古曼、阿吉特·贾恩、托马斯·墨菲、罗纳德·奥尔森、沃尔特·斯科特和梅丽尔·威特默为董事。还有其他提名或讨论吗?提名已准备就绪,可以付诸表决。如有股东亲自投票,请现在在董事选举选票上做出标记,并将选票交给走道中的会议工作人员。阿米克小姐,你准备好后请报告。

WARREN BUFFETTIt has been moved and seconded that Warren Buffett, Charles Munger, Gregory Abel, Howard Buffett, Stephen Burke, Susan Decker, William Gates, David Gottesman, Charlotte Guyman, Ajit Jain, Thomas Murphy, Ronald Olson, Walter Scott, and Meryl Witmer be elected as directors. Are there any other nominations or any discussion? The nominations are ready to be acted upon. If there are any shareholders voting in person, they should now mark their ballots on the election of directors and deliver their ballots to one of the meeting officials in the aisles. Miss Amick, when you are ready you may give your report.

贝基·阿米克我的报告已准备就绪。根据截至上周四晚间收到的委托投票书,代理投票持有人对每位被提名人所投的票数均不低于 605,906 票。该票数超过了所有已发行 A 类股和 B 类股总投票数的过半数。特拉华州法律要求的精确计票证明将提交给秘书,存入本次会议记录。

BECKI AMICKMy report is ready. The ballot of the proxy holders in response to proxies that were received through last Thursday evening cast not less than 605,906 votes for each nominee. That number exceeds a majority of the number of the total votes of all Class A and Class B shares outstanding. The certification required by Delaware law of the precise count of the votes will be given to the secretary to be placed with the minutes of this meeting.

沃伦·巴菲特谢谢你,阿米克小姐。沃伦·巴菲特、查理·芒格、格雷格·阿贝尔、霍华德·巴菲特、斯蒂芬·伯克、苏珊·德克尔、比尔·盖茨、戴维·戈特斯曼、夏洛特·古曼、阿吉特·贾恩、托马斯·墨菲、罗恩·奥尔森、沃尔特·斯科特和梅丽尔·威特默已当选为董事。

WARREN BUFFETTThank you, Miss Amick. Warren Buffett, Charles Munger, Gregory Abel, Howard Buffett, Steve Burke, Susan Decker, William Gates, David Gottesman, Charlotte Guyman, Ajit Jain, Thomas Murphy, Ron Olson, Walter Scott, and Meryl Witmer have been elected as directors.

股东关于甲烷排放的提案

Shareholder motion on methane emissions

沃伦·巴菲特下一项议程是由弗里达·凯斯卡特代表股东玛西娅·塞奇提出的动议。动议内容已在委托书材料中载明。该动议要求公司提供一份报告,披露公司在所有运营活动中与甲烷排放相关的政策、行动、计划和减排目标。董事会已建议股东投票反对该提案。我现在请凯斯卡特小姐陈述动议。为让所有感兴趣的股东都有机会表达意见,请鲍德温兄弟公司的代表将陈述时间控制在五分钟以内。

WARREN BUFFETTThe next item of business is a motion put forth by Freeda Cathcart on behalf of shareholder Marcia Sage. The motion is set forth in the proxy statement. The motion requests that the company provide a report revealing the company's policies, actions, plans, and reduction targets related to methane emissions from all operations. The directors have recommended that the shareholders vote against the proposal. I will now recognize Miss Cathcart to present the motion. To allow all interested shareholders their views, I ask that the representative of the Baldwin Brothers limit the presentation of the motion to five minutes.

弗里达·凯斯卡特早上好,巴菲特主席、芒格先生、各位董事和股东同仁。我代表鲍德温兄弟公司就甲烷资产风险问题提出本提案。这是这项以甲烷为重点的提案连续第二年提出。去年有 10% 的股东投了赞成票。甲烷资产风险是整个天然气供应链中一个严重的财务、安全和环境问题。洛杉矶南加州天然气公司阿利索峡谷储气设施的一口注气井发生故障,暴露了天然气设施在维护和安全方面的重大薄弱环节。在该事故中,清理和封堵成本已飙升至近 10 亿美元。加州州长杰里·布朗已威胁要关闭该设施。伯克希尔·哈撒韦拥有美国最大的州际天然气管道系统。它通过北方天然气公司、克恩河天然气公司和中美能源公司持有的天然气储存、输配设施,可能面临类似的安全风险。在环境方面,研究表明,甲烷泄漏可能会抵消为实现国际商定的气候变化目标而减少煤炭使用所带来的气候效益。在 20 年时间尺度上,甲烷排放对全球气温的影响约为二氧化碳的 84 倍。伯克希尔自愿加入了美国环保署的“甲烷挑战”和 ONE Future 排放强度承诺框架,并因在其价值链上将泄漏率降至 1% 的目标以下而值得赞赏。鉴于该框架是一种基于成本效益而非指令性的方法,股东希望了解伯克希尔所采用的成本效益方法是否充分——加强维护和披露应有助于降低这些财务和监管风险发生的可能性。最后,我们认为发布一份报告是审慎之举,该报告应披露公司在甲烷资产方面的具体最佳实践、政策和安全标准,以及为降低潜在业务风险所需的设施升级成本。这份报告将有助于投资者、客户和监管机构理解伯克希尔管理甲烷排放和风险的整体思路。感谢各位的考虑。

FREEDA CATHCARTGood morning Chairman Buffett, Mr. Munger, members of the board and fellow shareholders. I am presenting this proposal on behalf of Baldwin Brothers on the issue of methane asset risk. This is the second year for this methane-focused proposal. Last year 10 percent of shareholders approved of it. Methane asset risk is a serious financial safety and environmental issue across the entire natural gas supply chain. The failure of a gas injection well at Southern California Gas Aliso Canyon Storage facility in Los Angeles revealed major vulnerabilities in the maintenance and safety of natural gas facilities. In that situation, cleanup and containment costs have soared to close to $1 billion. Governor Jerry Brown of California has threatened to shut down the facility. Berkshire Hathaway owns the largest interstate natural gas pipeline system in the United States. It has natural gas storage distribution and transportation facilities that may face similar safety risks through the Northern Natural Gas Company, Kern River Gas, and MidAmerican Energy Corporations. On an environmental front, research indicates methane leaks could erase the climate benefits of reducing coal use to meet internationally agreed upon climate change targets. Methane emissions have an impact on global temperature of roughly 84 times that of CO2 over a 20-year period. Berkshire is a voluntary member of the EPA's Methane Challenge and ONE Future Emissions Intensity Commitment Framework and should be applauded for reducing its leakage rates to below the 1 percent target along its value chain. Since this framework is a cost-effective versus prescriptive approach, shareholders would like to understand if this cost-effective approach employed at Berkshire is sufficient — maintenance and enhanced disclosure should help mitigate the potential for these financial and regulatory risks. In closing, we think it prudent that Berkshire Hathaway issue a report revealing and disclosing the company's specific best practices, policies, and safety standards for methane assets and required upgrade costs to facilities to mitigate potential business risks. The report would make it easier for investors, customers, and regulators to understand Berkshire's overall approach to managing methane emissions and risks. Thank you for your consideration.

沃伦·巴菲特凯斯卡特小姐,能帮我看一下吗?那边还有其他人要发言吗?我从这里看不太清。

WARREN BUFFETTMiss Cathcart, could you help me out? Are there some other people that are there to speak? I can't quite see from here.

现场人士没有,没有其他股东希望就这一问题发言。

VOICENo, there are no other shareholders who wish to speak on this issue.

弗里达·凯斯卡特我身后没有人要发言。

FREEDA CATHCARTThere's nobody behind me to speak.

沃伦·巴菲特查理,你听到了吗?

WARREN BUFFETTDid you get that, Charlie?

查理·芒格没有。

CHARLIE MUNGERNo.

沃伦·巴菲特格雷格——能不能先调出第一张幻灯片,然后请人给格雷格一个麦克风,这样会方便些。他可以就这张图表做些展开说明,他对我们在做的事很清楚。

WARREN BUFFETTGreg — could we put up slide one and then if somebody will give Greg a microphone, that'd be helpful. He could elaborate some on this chart and knows what we're doing.

格雷格·阿贝尔好的。谢谢沃伦,也感谢刚才的点评。我们准备这份材料是为了回应提案。它展示了“一个未来”倡议所强调的目标。他们希望到 2025 年我们的管道运营能将输损率控制在 1%——也就是 1% 的输气损耗。我很高兴地汇报,正如这张幻灯片所示,2017 年我们的输损率为 0.046%,比 2025 年的要求好上 20 倍。(掌声)谢谢。这显然是对我们运营团队的高度肯定。他们确实非常重视刚才提到的问题。我还要补充一点,正如前面提到的,我们是 EPA 计划(美国环保署计划)的参与方,在自愿基础上进行报告。我们的做法已向 EPA 公开披露并接受其审查,相关信息还同步发布在我们的网站上。因此,我确信我们既取得了扎实的成果,也做了恰当的信息披露。谢谢。

GREG ABELOK. Thanks, Warren and appreciate the comments there. What we've prepared here is in response to the proposal. It demonstrates the ONE Future Initiative goal as it was highlighted. They'd like to see our pipelines operating by 2025 at a 1 percent throughput — or a loss of throughput at 1 percent. I'm happy to report, as this slide shows, that in 2017 our throughput loss was 0.046 percent, 20 times better than the request in 2025. (Applause) Thank you. It's a great compliment to our operating team, obviously. They take the issue that has been highlighted very seriously. I would also add, as it was noted, we're part of the EPA program where we report on a voluntary basis. Our practices are disclosed and reviewed by the EPA and additionally added on our website. Accordingly, I strongly feel we're getting the results and disclosing the appropriate information. Thank you.

沃伦·巴菲特是的,谢谢格雷格。凯斯卡特女士,在这件事的根本问题上,我们和你立场一致。我们只是不希望再花钱去做更多研究、出更多报告,然后再引出更多的报告之类的事。但我可以告诉你两件事。其一,这件事每季度都会向伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司的董事会汇报,而我是那个董事会的成员。其二,我们坚信要实现同样的目标,并且我们认为伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司在减少甲烷排放方面既有敏锐的意识,也有切实的行动力——既重视,也见成效。好,我想我们现在准备好了。动议现在可以付诸表决。如果还有股东要亲自投票,请现在在动议选票上做好标记,并将选票交给过道中的会议工作人员。阿米克女士,你准备好了就可以报告。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, and thanks Greg. And Miss Cathcart, we are on the same side you are on this basically. We just are not looking for ways to conduct more studies and prepare reports that may cost us money and generate more reports and all that. But I can tell you two things. This is something that is reported to the board of directors of Berkshire Hathaway Energy quarterly. And I'm on that board. And we believe in achieving the same things and we think Berkshire Hathaway Energy is both sensitive and effective — sensitive to and effective — in reducing methane emissions. So if — I think we're now ready. The motion is now ready to be acted upon. If there are any shareholders voting in person, they should now mark their ballots on the motion and deliver their ballot to one of the meeting officials in the aisles. Miss Amick, when you're ready, you may give your report.

贝基·阿米克我的报告已准备就绪。根据截至上周四晚间收到的全部代理委托书,代理投票持有人对该动议所投的赞成票为 48,040 票,反对票为 558,640 票。由于反对票数超过就该事项正确投出的所有 A 类股和 B 类股总票数的过半数,同时也超过所有流通在外股票的总票数,该动议未获通过。根据特拉华州法律要求出具的精确计票证明文件将提交给秘书,和本次会议记录一并归档。

BECKI AMICKMy report is ready. The ballot of the proxy holders in response to proxies that were received through last Thursday evening cast 48,040 votes for the motion and 558,640 votes against the motion. As the number of votes against the motion exceeds a majority of the number of votes of all Class A and Class B shares properly cast on the matter, as well as all votes outstanding, the motion has failed. The certification required by Delaware law of the precise count of the votes will be given to the secretary to be placed with the minutes of this meeting.

沃伦·巴菲特谢谢,阿米克女士。提案未获通过。

WARREN BUFFETTThank you, Miss Amick. The proposal fails.

股东提案:关于可持续发展报告

Shareholder proposal on sustainability reports

沃伦·巴菲特下一项议程是由股东弗里达·凯斯卡特提出的动议。动议内容已载于委托书声明中。该动议要求伯克希尔制定一项政策,鼓励更多伯克希尔子公司发布年度可持续发展报告。现在我请弗里达·凯斯卡特来陈述动议。为让所有关心此事的股东都能表达意见,我请她将发言控制在五分钟以内。请发言,凯斯卡特女士。

WARREN BUFFETTThe next item of business is a motion put forth by shareholder Freeda Cathcart. The motion is set forth in the proxy statement. The motion requests that Berkshire adopt a policy to encourage more Berkshire subsidiary companies to issue annual sustainability reports. I will now recognize Freeda Cathcart to present the motion, and to all interested shareholders to present their views I ask her to limit her remarks to five minutes. You have the floor, Miss Cathcart.

弗里达·凯斯卡特非常感谢。能站在这里是我的荣幸,这份荣幸还要感谢我的祖父詹姆斯·凯斯卡特。他最初从通用再保险的收发室做起,一路在公司里成长,最终成为通用再保险的董事长。在此期间,他积攒了大量通用再保险的股票,并慷慨地赠予了他的家人。赠予股票的同时,他也鼓励家人们行善,把这份善意传递下去,去做一些能让世界和我们的社区变得不同的事。我父亲的做法是通过资助教育机构来践行这一理念,他觉得:授人以鱼,只救一时之急;授人以渔,则惠及一生。而我的关注点一直放在环境上,想法是:当人们真的去捕鱼的时候,最好他们能吃上那些鱼。我想借此机会澄清一下我关于可持续发展报告的提案,并把重点放在“鼓励”这个词上。显然,伯克希尔·哈撒韦那种让子公司自主经营、不加以直接指导——嗯,不强加来自你们的管理指令——的管理方式,是非常成功的。我不会建议去做改变。你们做得很出色,请一定继续保持。但我确实认为,鼓励它们、支持它们是有意义的,并且在很多方面你们已经在这样做了。投资者和公众对企业社会责任的关注度极高,目前五分之一的投资都建立在社会责任投资策略之上。早在 2012 年,我读到过《地球先驱报》的一篇文章,里面写道:“沃伦·巴菲特一开口,人们都会倾听。他现在谈论的是环境。他认为公司需要追求三重底线。尊重环境对一家公司的经济表现绝对至关重要。”文章中还引用了——这是您的原话,巴菲特先生——“在这样的时代,一家公司必须投资于盈利能力的关键要素:它的人、它的社区和它的环境。”伯克希尔·哈撒韦旗下已有三分之一的子公司在网上有可持续相关的内容呈现。其中一家是伯克希尔能源,它有一个缩写叫 RESPECT(尊重),分别代表:责任、效率、管理、表现、沟通和培训。伯克希尔·哈撒韦每年还举办可持续发展峰会,帮助各子公司聚拢在一起,学习如何更可持续地运营、如何分享实用技巧以及如何实现盈利。这非常了不起。但是,当我试图在网上找到关于这个可持续发展峰会的网页时,我却找不到。而这正是我认为伯克希尔·哈撒韦可以做得更好的地方——在向我们的股东和外界传播我们正在做的这些好事方面。一个简单的解决方案是:在伯克希尔·哈撒韦的官网上设立一个可持续相关内容的链接,人们点进去就能了解到像可持续发展峰会这样的倡议。从那里,或许他们还可以进一步点击进入那些已经在网上呈现了可持续发展内容的子公司,看看它们具体在做些什么。如此一来,我们便向世界打开了一扇窗,让他们看到我们为产生影响所做的一切,这可能会激励其他企业效仿。再或者,也许会有正在写论文的大学生读到这些内容,认为这是一种好的商业模式,是他在未来职业生涯中想要去推动的东西。现在还有一个名为“伯克希尔·哈撒韦的可持续发展”的 Facebook 页面,可供股东和外界人士查看相关研究,并互相鼓励学习如何支持可持续发展的实践。这个页面现在已经可以访问了。我由衷感谢今天能有这个机会与您交流,并澄清我的提案。此外,我深表赞赏,并衷心感谢您为我们的公司和这个世界所做的一切。万分感谢。

FREEDA CATHCARTThank you so much. It is a privilege to be here and a privilege I can give thanks to my grandfather James Cathcart, who started out in the mailroom of Gen Re and worked himself up through the company to become the chair of Gen Re. During that time he accumulated a lot of Gen Re stock, which he bestowed generously upon his family. And when he did so, he encouraged the members of his family to do good and to pay it forward, to do something that would make a difference in the world and in our communities. For my father, he did so by being philanthropic with educational institutions with the theory that if you give a person a fish you feed them for a day, but if you teach them to fish, you feed them for a lifetime. My focus has been on the environment with the thought that when people fish, it would be nice if they were able to eat the fish. I want to take this opportunity to clarify my proposal about the sustainability reports and put the emphasis on the word encourage. It is evident that Berkshire Hathaway's management of allowing the subsidiaries to work without getting guidance — well, mandates from you is being very successful. And I wouldn't recommend changing it. You're doing a great job. Please keep it up. But I do think that there's something to be said to encourage them and support them, and in many ways you already are. There is a high level of interest from investors and the public in corporate social responsibility. One-fifth of investments are based on socially responsible investment strategies. And back in 2012, I found an article by Planet Earth Herald where they wrote, "When Warren Buffett talks, people listen. He is now talking about the environment. He believes that companies need to have a triple bottom line. And respecting the environment is absolutely critical to a company's economic performance." In times — and this is a direct quote from you, Mr. Buffett, "In times such as these a company must invest in the key ingredients of profitability: its people, communities, and the environment." One-third of Berkshire Hathaway's subsidiaries already have a sustainability presence on the web. And one of them is Berkshire Energy that has the acronym respect, R-E-S-P-E-C-T, which stands for Responsibility, Efficiency, Stewardship, Performance, Communication, and Training. And Berkshire Hathaway provides an annual sustainability summit to help bring the subsidiaries together so they can learn how to be more sustainable, how to share tips, and how to be profitable. And that's excellent. But when I try to find a web presence about the sustainability summit, I wasn't able to find it. And that's where I think that we can do a better job in Berkshire Hathaway when it comes to communication with our shareholders and with the outside world about the good work that we're doing. A simple solution to that would just be to create a link on the Berkshire Hathaway website to sustainability that people could click on and go and find out about initiatives like the sustainability summit. And from there, perhaps, they could click on to go to the subsidiaries that have a web presence about sustainability to see what they're doing. In doing so, we give a window to the world where they can see what we're doing to make a difference that might inspire other corporations to follow the example. Or perhaps a college student working on a paper would read about it and think that that is a good business model, that that's something that he wants to bring forward when he goes into his career. There is a Facebook page called "Berkshire Hathaway's Sustainability" that will be available for shareholders and the outside world to look at to see research and to encourage each other to learn how we can support sustainability practices. And that is available now. I greatly appreciate this opportunity to speak with you today and to clarify what my proposal is. And I do greatly applaud and appreciate all the work that you're doing on behalf of our corporation and the world. Thank you so much.

沃伦·巴菲特也谢谢你。(掌声)伯克希尔的许多经理——相当多的经理——就在现场,他们听到了你刚才那番话。我猜他们中绝大多数人都认同你的观点。至于他们会不会在网页等方面采取行动,在我们看来,这基本上由他们自己拿主意。但我可以告诉你,正如你所提到的,其中一位主要的倡导者是格雷格·阿贝尔,他之前一直担任伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司的负责人,现在担任副董事长。格雷格或许也想就此说几句。但我可以向你保证,各位经理都听到了你所说的。

WARREN BUFFETTAnd thank you. (Applause) Many of the managers — a great many of the managers — of Berkshire are here and are listening to you. And I suspect that a very high percentage of them agree with what you're saying. Whether they — what they do in terms of web pages and so on, in our view, is basically up to them. But I can tell you that one leading proponent, as you mentioned, was Greg Abel, who until recently was running Berkshire Hathaway Energy and now is vice chairman. And Greg may want to say a few words on this, too. But I can assure you that the managers are listening to you.

格雷格·阿贝尔谢谢,沃伦。是的,刚才提到的那些事我们都在做。我再为我们的股东补充几点吧。很显然,可持续发展对于伯克希尔以及我们每一家运营子公司而言都是一项优先事项。刚才提到了不少子公司已经有了可持续发展报告。但我想说的不止于此。如果你去我们各家公司的官网,你会看到它们在可持续发展方面采取的具体行动。所以相关信息或许没有被汇总在一份特定的报告里,但这类信息是能够获取到的。我还可以补充,说到伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司,我们一直在努力以身作则,并得到了沃伦、查理、沃尔特·斯科特的支持。我很高兴地汇报,如果看截至 2017 年底我们的能源生产结构,我们的客户所消耗的能源中,有 50% 来自可再生能源。我们正在美国和全球范围内大力传播这一信息,以此作为我们这个行业可以有所作为的范例。而且我很高兴地报告,到 2021 年底,我们在爱荷华州的客户所使用的能源,将有望 100% 由可再生能源满足。所以,我完全理解可持续发展的理念。我们正在整个集团范围内分享最佳实践。但正如沃伦所强调的,这件事的决定权确实落在每家子公司身上。不过,鼓励会持续下去,你们也会继续看到令人瞩目的成果。谢谢。

GREG ABELThanks, Warren. Yeah, we do everything that was touched on. I'll just maybe add a few points for our shareholders. Obviously, sustainability is a priority for Berkshire and each of our operating subsidiaries. It was highlighted that a number of them have sustainability reports. But I would go beyond that. If you go to our various companies' websites, you'll see specific actions they're taking relative to sustainability. So it may not be summarized in a specific report, but that type of information is available. I can also add that when you think of the Berkshire Hathaway Energy Corporation, we're trying to lead by example with support from Warren, Charlie, Walter Scott. I'm happy to report, if you look at where our energy production is right now at the end of 2017, 50 percent of our energy that is produced and consumed by our customers comes from renewable energy. That's something we're strongly communicating across the U.S. and globally as an example of what can be done in our industry. And I'm happy to report by the end of 2021, 100 percent of the energy utilized by our customers can be met through renewable energy in Iowa. So I understand the concept of sustainability. We're working across our organizations to share best practices. But as Warren highlighted, it really resides in each of our companies. But it will be encouraged and you'll continue to see great results. Thank you.

沃伦·巴菲特谢谢。(掌声)现在可以对动议进行投票表决了。如果还有股东要亲自投票,请现在在动议选票上做好标记,并将选票交给过道中的会议工作人员。阿米克女士,你准备好了就可以报告。

WARREN BUFFETTThank you. (Applause) The motion is now ready to be acted upon. If there are any shareholders voting in person they should now mark their ballot on the motion and deliver their ballot to one of the meeting officials in the aisles. Miss Amick, when you're ready you may give your report.

贝基·阿米克我的报告已准备就绪。根据截至上周四晚间收到的全部代理委托书,代理投票持有人对该动议所投的赞成票为 67,282 票,反对票为 544,256 票。由于反对票数超过就该事项正确投出的所有 A 类股和 B 类股总票数的过半数,同时也超过所有流通在外股票的总票数,该动议未获通过。根据特拉华州法律要求出具的精确计票证明文件将提交给秘书,和本次会议记录一并归档。

BECKI AMICKMy report is ready. The ballot of the proxy holders in response to proxies that were received through last Thursday evening cast 67,282 votes for the motion and 544,256 votes against the motion. As the number of votes against the motion exceeds a majority of the number of votes of all Class A and Class B shares properly cast on the matter, as well as all votes outstanding, the motion has failed. The certification required by Delaware law of the precise count of the votes will be given to the secretary to be placed with the minutes of this meeting.

沃伦·巴菲特谢谢你,阿米克女士。我想说的是,凯斯卡特女士,我们的经理们听到了你的声音。我的意思是,你确实产生了影响,我感谢你所做的努力。沃尔特,我想我们现在可以提出休会动议了吧?

WARREN BUFFETTThank you, Miss Amick. And I would say Miss Cathcart, our managers heard you. I mean, you have had an impact and I appreciate what you have done. Walter, I guess we're now ready for a motion?

沃尔特·斯科特我动议本次会议现在休会。

WALTER SCOTTI move that this meeting be adjourned.

沃伦·巴菲特有第二位表决人吗?

WARREN BUFFETTIs there a second?

罗恩·奥尔森我附议。

RON OLSONI second the motion.