2025 年股东大会 · 下午场

2025-05-17 · 原文约 15249 词
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[章节] 实录

Transcript

沃伦·巴菲特好,各位。好,我们准备开始了。我首先要推荐一部电影。我知道你们不是为这个来的,但我还是建议大家去看一看。你们打开亚马逊 Prime——我跟这片子没有任何经济利益关系——你们打开亚马逊 Prime,点开一部叫《成为凯瑟琳·格雷厄姆》(Becoming Katharine Graham)的纪录片。片子讲的是一个大约 50 年前的不可思议的故事。从某种程度上说,我有幸充当了一段美国历史的旁观者,我觉得那段历史极为迷人。如果你们觉得我推荐得不对,可以给我写张条子,我保证会通报有多少人不同意。但请你们点开《成为凯瑟琳·格雷厄姆》,你会看到一个精彩绝伦的美国历史故事。片中很多内容,连亲身经历过那个年代的人当时也并不知道。我认为每个美国公民都应该看一看。好了,说完了这个,我希望大家在场内和我们的友好店铺里多花点钱。我们接下来转到 9 号站台。

WARREN BUFFETTOK, everyone. OK, we’re ready to go, and I’m going to lead off by actually recommending a movie. I know that’s why you came, but I would recommend all of you. You go to Amazon Prime—I’ve got no financial interest in this— but you go to Amazon Prime. Click on a documentary called Becoming Katharine Graham . It’s an incredible story from 50 or so years ago. And to some extent, I had the good luck to be kind of a viewer of some American history that I think is fascinating. So if you feel that I have misled you can write me a note, and I promise to report how many didn’t agree with it, but click on Becoming Katharine Graham, and you’ll see a story of a remarkable story of American history. There are a good many portions in there who lived for that period didn’t know about at the time. I don’t think every American citizen ought to watch it. So with that I hope you all spend some more money out there and in our friendly shops. We will go to Station 9.

[章节] 巴菲特从格雷格·阿贝尔身上学到了什么?

What did Warren Buffett learn from Greg Abel?

罗伯特您好,沃伦。我叫罗伯特,是来自加拿大多伦多的股东。沃伦,三年前,查理·罗斯问过您一个大致相当于“您希望因什么而被世人铭记”的问题。您的回答是:“他是一位老师。”本着这种精神,格雷格,我想听听您从沃伦那里学到某些深刻道理的故事。我相信您学到的东西很多,但如果脑子里突然冒出一个具体故事,我们很乐意听一听。反过来,如果时间允许,沃伦,您从格雷格身上学到了什么?谢谢。

ROBERTHi, Warren. My name is Robert, and I’m a shareholder from Toronto, Canada. So, Warren, three years ago, Charlie Rose asked your question to the effect of what you wanted to be remembered for. And your reply was, “He was a teacher.” So in that spirit, Greg, I’m curious to hear maybe a story of where you learned something very, you know, profound from Warren. I’m sure you learned many things, but if there is a story that kind of comes up in your mind, we’d love to hear it, and vice versa, if we have the time. Warren, what’s something that you may be learned from Greg? Thank you.

沃伦·巴菲特好,我稍后就把话题交给格雷格,不过我现在最想因之出名的,是年事已高。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, I will turn this over to Greg in just one second, but now the main thing I’d like to be known for is old age.

格雷格·阿贝尔沃伦显然是一位了不起的老师,我每天都在从中受益。正如我已经提到过的,多年来,我很幸运——如果现在非要被记住点什么,我显然希望被记住是一位好父亲,但同样,也希望被记住是一位教练。这指的不仅是对家人、朋友,也包括对我教练的那些打冰球、棒球或其他项目的孩子们。

GREG ABELWell, Warren is obviously a remarkable teacher and I benefit from that every day and as I’ve already touched on for many years, I’m fortunate that if I had to be remembered as something right now, obviously, I want to be remembered as a great father, but equally, a coach and that goes to family, friends and just being involved with the kids I coach in hockey or baseball or whatever it may be.

格雷格·阿贝尔我们有一个很好的机会,可以在他们非常小的时候就去影响他们。所以,显然,那会是我希望被记住的方式,而且希望那是很多很多年以后的事了。但我确实喜欢把沃伦视作一位老师,他和我每天都有机会继续学习。沃伦和我每周都保持着这种深入的对话,我们总是在谈论伯克希尔的机会,或者全球、美国发生的事,每一次都确实是一个学习时刻。

GREG ABELI think we’ve got a great opportunity to get back to him at a very young age, so obviously, those would be how I’d want to be remembered, and hopefully that will be many, many years from now, but I love thinking of Warren truly as a teacher and he and every day get the opportunity to continue to learn. Warren and I this dialogue is strong every week and we’re always talking about opportunities in Berkshire or things that are going on globally or in the US and each one is truly a learning moment.

格雷格·阿贝尔我可能要回到第一次与沃伦见面的时候,因为那情景至今仍历历在目,那显然是一次难得的机会。当时沃伦正在收购或者说考虑收购中美能源控股公司,我和我的几位合伙人有机会在一个周六上午去见他,我们一起讨论了业务,沃伦面前摊着财务报表。

GREG ABELI’ll maybe go back to the very first meeting with Warren because it still stands out in my mind, obviously, it was an incredible opportunity. Warren was buying or acquiring Mid-America Energy Holdings company at that time, or thinking about it, I had the opportunity with my partners to go over there on a Saturday morning, and we discussed the business, and Warren had the financial statements in front of them.

格雷格·阿贝尔和所有人一样,我本以为他会问几个关于业务表现之类的问题,但沃伦立刻盯上了资产负债表上的内容,盯上了我们持有的一些衍生品合约——那些“大规模杀伤性武器”。对于公用事业业务来说,我们确实会用到它们,因为要用它们来匹配某些头寸,但永远无法做到完美匹配。可它们确实存在,而且在受监管业务里,我们必须使用它们。我只记得沃伦立刻切入这一点,追问合约的构成和底层风险,他想彻底弄明白。

GREG ABELLike anybody, I was sort of expecting a few questions on how the business was performing or a variety of things, but Warren locked in immediately to what was on the balance sheet and the fact that we had some derivative contracts, the weapons of mass destruction. And associated with the utility business, we do have them because they use them to match certain positions, and they never match perfectly. But you do have them, and we’re required in the regulated business. I just remember Warren going to it immediately and asking about the composition of it and what the underlying risk was, and wanting to thoroughly understand.

格雷格·阿贝尔那并不是一个特别大的头寸,但绝对是他收购中美能源时担心的风险之一,考虑到安然事件和之前发生的一切,这确实是个很切中要害的问题。在那之后大约一年半,美国出现了一场涉及电力和天然气的能源危机,形形色色的人从中赚了大钱。一两年后,沃伦又问了我一个问题——我知道他更多是在确认或检验——“这次能源危机我们赚了多少钱?赚得多吗?我们有没有建立投机性头寸?赚钱了吗?”答案是,我们当时赚的钱与六个月前相比确实没多出多少,因为所有这些衍生品都是用来支持我们业务的,而不是用于投机。所以,那种对于他收购对象业务的理解、对相关风险的关注,时至今日仍让我印象深刻。沃伦?

GREG ABELIt wasn’t that big of a position, but it was absolutely one of the risks he was concerned about as he was acquiring Mid-American and obviously, in light of Enron and everything that had gone on, it was a very pertinent question. The follow-up to that was then there was an energy crisis in the US around electricity and natural gas, and a variety of folks who were making significant sums of money. This is a year, 18 months later. And Warren’s follow-up question, a couple of years later, to me was, and I knew it was more just checking or testing, “So how much money are we making during this energy crisis? Are we making a lot? Do we have the speculative positions in place and are we making?” And the answer was we’re really not making any more today than we would have been six months ago, because all those derivatives were truly to support our business and weren’t speculative. So, just that focus on understanding the business of what he was acquiring, understanding the risks around it, still stands out in my mind. Warren?

沃伦·巴菲特是啊,这点我们在这里确实从没真正谈起过,但我花在看资产负债表上的时间比花在利润表上要多。华尔街确实不太关注资产负债表,但我喜欢在翻看利润账户之前,先研究 8 到 10 年的资产负债表。有些东西,在资产负债表上比在利润表上更难隐藏或做手脚。我是说,两者都提供不了什么事的全部答案,但你还是要弄明白这些数字在告诉你什么、没有告诉你什么、不能告诉你什么,以及管理层想让它们说出什么、审计师不想让它们说出的又是什么。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, that’s one thing we’ve really never talked about here, but I spend more time looking at balance sheets than I do income statements and Wall Street really doesn’t pay much attention to balance sheets, but I like to look at balance sheets over an 8 or 10 year period before I even look at the income account. There are certain things that are harder to hide or play games with on the balance sheet than you can with the income statement. I mean, neither one gives you the total answer on anything, but you still want to understand what the figures are saying and what they don’t say and what they can’t say and what the management will like them to say, that the auditors wouldn’t like them to say.

沃伦·巴菲特我的意思是,这里面能学到的东西太多了,在我看来,资产负债表能教给你的信息,远超过大多数人对它的认可。我不担心后人会因为这个而记住我——人们根本就不记得。就拿凯瑟琳·格雷厄姆来说吧,比方说那段从许多方面塑造了美国的故事,人们对她的记忆还远远不够。那段经历无疑产生了各式各样深远的影响。我想说的是,历史太迷人了。而查理,他在学东西方面或许是你能想象到的最厉害的人。查理对任何事情的了解从不满足于皮毛,他真心想把它弄懂。他还总是告诉我,在你能把反对你的论点描述得比与你争论的人更好之前,不要在任何事情上采取立场。你应该能比对方更好地阐述他们的观点。

WARREN BUFFETTAnd I mean, there’s just a lot to be learned, and you do learn more from balance sheets in my view than most people give them credit for. I’m not worried about being remembered for that, people don’t remember. Well, they don’t remember enough about Katharine Graham, for example, in terms of this story that shaped America in many ways. Certainly, had just all kinds of impact, and I think I mean history is so fascinating, and Charlie was probably the best person you could imagine in what he learned. Charlie was never satisfied with just superficial things about any subject. He really wanted to understand it, and he always would tell me not to take a position on anything until you can describe the arguments against it better than the person who is arguing with you. That you should be able to argue their case better than they can.

沃伦·巴菲特他是一位了不起的老师,不过我刚才提到的那几位也同样如此。当然,我的父亲也是一位极为出色的老师。所以,要充分利用你所遇到的、能让你成为更好的人的那些人,至于其他人,在很大程度上大概可以忽略掉。好了,我们接着看第 12 个问题。贝基,讲吧。请继续。

WARREN BUFFETTHe was a remarkable teacher and but so and so with those other fellows I mentioned. And, of course, my dad was an incredible teacher. So you make the most of the people you meet who are going to make you a better person, and probably forget about the rest to quite an extent. OK, let’s move on to number 12. Becky, here. Next.

格雷格·阿贝尔谈资本配置观点

Greg Abel’s view on capital allocation

贝基·奎克这个问题来自亚利桑那州斯科茨代尔的股东戴维·鲁宾,是问格雷格的。“几十年来,我们一遍遍听到沃伦和查理的投资理念,对他们的能力圈也早已熟知。在接任 CEO 后的头十年里,格雷格所要配置的资本将超过伯克希尔历史上任何时期。有鉴于此,我想听听格雷格对资本配置的看法,尤其是配置到新业务的资本。”

BECKY QUICKThis question comes from David Rubin, a shareholder from Scottsdale, AZ. It’s a question for Greg. “We’ve heard over the decades and are familiar with Warren and Charlie’s investment thesis and their circle of competence. During the first ten years after taking over as CEO, Greg will be tasked with allocating more capital during that time than Berkshire has had to allocate in its history. Given this, I’d like to hear from Greg about his views on capital allocation, particularly into new businesses.”

格雷格·阿贝尔好的。想一想伯克希尔,我们确实非常幸运——我们讨论过,从哪里起步,显然会涉及相关的投资配置——但我们的起点极好,公司内部有着卓越的文化。我们拥有一套价值观——由沃伦和查理定义的、以及与公司相关的所有人共有的管理团队价值观,这些价值观确实为伯克希尔的未来奠定了极为有利的基础。显然,随着我们进行资本部署和配置,这对伯克希尔未来的发展至关重要,同时,围绕风险管理也是如此。

GREG ABELSure. It’s very fortunate when you think of Berkshire again, and we’ve talked about this where we start from and clearly touch on the investment in the related investment allocation, but we start from where great place where we’ve got a great culture within the business. We have values that we as a management team and really as defined by Warren and those of Charlie and everybody associated with the business, got great values that really set Berkshire up well for the future, and obviously as we deploy capital and allocate capital, it’s critical to Berkshire as we go forward and equally it’s around managing risk.

格雷格·阿贝尔但谈到我们的价值观,有几点是绝对核心的。其一,始终维护伯克希尔以及我们旗下公司的声誉。在我看来,无论是投资还是我们各业务的具体运营,这始终会是第一优先事项,也是我们会时刻放在心上、确保不偏离的一点。同样重要的是,当我们审视——回到沃伦对资产负债表的评论——我们一定会拥有堡垒般的资产负债表。我们的首席独立董事苏·德克尔昨天说得很好。我们现在手头持有数目可观的现金,拥有这笔现金本身就是一笔巨大的资产,这也将继续成为我们的经营哲学。当机会来临时,我们能配置好它,就会妥善配置。

GREG ABELBut when I think of our values, there are a couple that are absolutely critical. One will maintain the reputation of Berkshire and that of our company. I view that in investing or how we operate things across each of our businesses, that will always be a priority and something that will ensure it is in the forefront of our minds. I think equally, as we then look at our— back to Warren’s balance sheet comment—we will have a fortress of a balance sheet. I thought Sue Decker, our lead director, said it well yesterday. We’ve got a significant set of cash right now, but it’s an enormous asset to have that, and that will continue to be a philosophy. When we can deploy it, we’ll deploy it well.

格雷格·阿贝尔但同样,我们确实把它视为一项战略资产,让我们能安然渡过困难时期,同时不依赖任何人。所以,这仍将是我们的投资理念之一。我们将保持伯克希尔本色,伯克希尔的成功,绝不会依赖某家银行或其他什么机构。接下来我想点出的是,资本配置绝对至关重要,但随之而来的是风险管理和对风险的深刻理解,这落在我们所有经理人肩上,无论保险还是非保险业务,我们都会在整个伯克希尔贯彻这套理念。

GREG ABELBut equally, we do recognize it as a strategic asset and it allows us to weather the difficult times and at the same and not be dependent on anybody. So, again, that will be an investment philosophy. We will remain Berkshire, and we will never be dependent on a bank or some other party for Berkshire to be successful. I would then touch on allocation of capital being absolutely critical, but with that comes management of risk and understanding risk, and that falls upon all our managers, insurance, non-insurance, but we’ll bring that across Berkshire.

格雷格·阿贝尔另一个我想补充的价值观,也确实和我接下来要讲的内容相关,就是——归根结底,我们拥有一批相当优秀的运营公司,它们确实能产生可观的现金流。无论是保险公司创造的现金流,还是各类非保险公司每年产生的可观现金流,都是如此。随着公司向前发展,我们打算继续确保这成为伯克希尔的优势。这对我们的长期成功绝对至关重要。那么,有了这些现金流、有了浮存金,再加上前面提到的,我们资产负债表上已拥有相当雄厚的资源,我们将继续以一种非常相似的哲学向前推进,或者说,这与我们当前乃至过去 60 年来所秉持的哲学完全一致。

GREG ABELThe other value I would touch on, but that really relates to where I’m going, is that, ultimately, we have a great set of operating companies that do produce significant cash flows. Be it in the insurance companies creating flow or various non-insurance companies producing significant cash flows on an annual basis. We intend to continue to ensure that’s the strength of Berkshire as we go forward. It’s absolutely critical to our long-term success. Now, with those cash flows and with the float, and then equally as touched on, we have significant resources already in our balance sheet. We’ll really continue to move forward with a very similar philosophy, or it’s an identical philosophy to what we’ve had currently and for the past 60 years.

格雷格·阿贝尔我们首先会从公司业务内部寻找机会。我指的是,在我们旗下的保险和非保险业务里。它们的资本是否充足,是否有机会自主经营业务,这种机会能否持续存在?它们将以高度自治的方式运营。但归根结底,伯克希尔仍会管理投进这些业务、或是可能从这些业务里收回的资本。同理,下一个机会是整笔收购企业,即 100% 收购。总有我们能够出手的好时机。沃伦刚才也提到了。上个季度我们就做了一笔有意思的收购,是 100 亿美元的收购案,但重申一次,价值相对于风险必须划算。如果划算,我们就想拥有它。如果时机不合适,以后还会有别的机会去收购此类资产。

GREG ABELWe’ll start by looking at those opportunities within our business. And by that, I mean, within our insurance, non-insurance businesses. Are they properly capitalized and have the opportunity to manage their business, and will that continue to exist? They’ll operate in an autonomous way. But in the end, Berkshire still manages the capital that will go into those businesses or what potentially will come out of those businesses. Equally, the next opportunity is to acquire businesses in their totality or 100%. There are great times when we can do that. Warren touched on. We had one that was interesting in the last quarter, the $10 billion acquisition, but again, the value relative to the risk has to be right. And if it’s right, we want to own it. If it’s not the time, there’ll be another time to own assets like that.

格雷格·阿贝尔此外,还有通过股权持有公司一部分的机会。但正如沃伦始终强调的,这也会是我们思考这些公司时的思路——尽管我们只持有公司的一部分,但我们拥有那部分现金流,拥有那部分资产负债表,而不只是一张股权凭证。在对待这件事时,我们确实会抱着长期持有这家公司的心态。关键还是要去理解——无论是 100% 控股的公司,还是只占 1% 的公司——我们是否彻底理解、对其未来经济前景是否有坚定的看法?沃伦之前也说过,五年后、十年后、二十年后,如果我们对前景没有看法,我们就不会投资,不管是 100% 持有,还是通过股权持有一家公司的 2%。

GREG ABELThen there’s the opportunity to own pieces of companies through equity. But as Warrens always highlighted, and again, this will be our approach to how we think around those companies. Though we own a piece of the company. We own a piece of that cash flow. We own a piece of their balance sheet. It’s not just a share certificate. And as we approach that, really, we’ll approach it with the thought that we’re going to own this company for the long term. It’s again understanding what—be it the 100% company or the 1% company. Do we thoroughly understand, and do we have a strong view of what the economic prospects of those companies will look like? And Warren said it earlier, five years from now, 10 years from now, 20 years from now, if we don’t have a view of that, we won’t be investing, be it 100% or 2% of a company through equities.

格雷格·阿贝尔我们必须彻底想清楚那些前景会是什么样,在理清前景的同时,还必须透彻理解业务内在的底层风险。这其实就是投资理念的核心,也是沃伦和团队过去 60 年来配置资本的方式。这个做法不会变,也是我们未来会继续采用的方式。

GREG ABELWe have to thoroughly understand what those prospects look like, and associated with understanding those prospects, we need to understand the underlying risk of the businesses and it’s really the investment philosophy and how Warren and the team have allocated capital for the past 60 years. It will not change, and it’s the approach we will take as we go forward.

沃伦·巴菲特我不想在这个话题上花太长时间,但这确实很重要,因为很明显,举例来说,这个国家极需大幅改进、反思,乃至在一定程度上调整方向。我们已经发展得超出了美国原来应有的模式。从某种意义上说,这有点像州际公路系统遇到的问题——你需要实实在在的政府力量来把事情办成,因为如果有 48 个或 50 个辖区,各自都有自己的一套想法,事情就很难高效推进。当然,在二战时期,我们用一小时一美元的工资动员民众,那时我们知道必须像发疯一样造出舰船,而且知道必须在几天之内——不是几周,也不是几个月——把福特汽车从一家汽车制造商转产为飞机制造商。

WARREN BUFFETTI don’t want to go on too long on this, but this is important because it’s very obvious that the country, for example, needs an incredible improvement, rethinking, redirection, even to some extent. We’ve outgrown what would be the model that America should have. And in a sense, it’s a problem something akin to the interstate highway system, where you needed the power of the government really to get things done because it doesn’t work so well when you get 48 or 50 jurisdictions that each have their own way of thinking about things. Of course, in World War Two, we called in people at a dollar an hour, and we knew we had to turn out ships like crazy, and we knew that we had to convert Ford Motor from being a car manufacturer into an aircraft manufacturer in a matter of days, not weeks, not months.

沃伦·巴菲特有些大规模的投资情形,我们在私人体系中拥有的资本规模是其他任何机构都无法比拟的。在整个发电和输电领域,我们拥有独到的专长。这个国家未来会需要这些。但我们必须想出一个办法,能够同时从政府角度、公众角度和伯克希尔角度都行得通,而我们目前还没想出来。我不知道格雷格是否愿意展开讲讲其中的几个主要难题,但那是一个明确且迫在眉睫的、要动用数千亿美元的资金用途。你知道,市面上有人成立基金,声称他们光靠拼凑资产就能从中赚取报酬。但那不是处理此事的正确方式。正确的做法,是建立起某种政府与私营企业合作,类似于战争期间的做法。我不认为当年修建高速公路系统时,政府会自己派人去浇筑水泥或做类似的事情,但你确实需要那样的合作。我觉得在能源领域,我们现在就处在这样一个节点上,但我认为我们在这方面尚未取得什么实质性进展。你再跟我们多聊一聊。

WARREN BUFFETTThere are certain really major investment situations where we have capital like nobody else has in the private system. We have particular knowhow in the whole generation and transmission arena. The country is going to need it. But we have to figure out a way that makes sense from the standpoint of the government, from the standpoint of the public, and from the standpoint of Berkshire, and we haven’t figured that out yet. I don’t know whether Greg wants to even explain a few of the major problems, but that is a clear and present use of hundreds of billions of dollars. You know, you have people that set up funds and say, they’re getting paid for just assembling stuff. But that’s not the way to handle it. The way to handle it is to have some kind of government-private industry cooperation similar to what you do in a war. I don’t think when they were doing the highway system, that the government set up his own guys that were going to pour a whole cement or anything like that, but they you needed a cooperation and we’re at that point, I think in terms of energy, but I don’t think we’ve made any progress particularly. Tell us more about that.

格雷格·阿贝尔是的。我觉得这些现象并不独特,它们在某种程度上反映了我们所处的阶段。各行各业都将出现非常重要的投资机会。正如沃伦在电力行业或能源领域所提到的,我们凭借现有业务对此显然深有体会。为满足当前预测的长期需求所需投入的资本,规模极为庞大,而伯克希尔将处于有利位置来帮助应对这些需求,但围绕这类投资的模式,以及为部署这种体量的资本所需化解的风险,都将与今日截然不同。

GREG ABELYeah. And I think these are not unique in that it’s sort of reflective of where we’re at. There will be very significant investment opportunities across a variety of industries. As Warren touched on in the electric industry or the energy space, we obviously know that well with our existing business. The capital required to meet the long-term needs of what’s currently projected as demand is enormous and we as Berkshire we’ll be in a good position to help address those needs, but the model around it and the risks that need to be addressed to deploy that type of capital will be different than they are today.

沃伦·巴菲特没错,必须动用联邦政府的力量。但真正的考验在于,你能否让 48 个或 50 个——视乎事情的性质——辖区合作起来,去共同完成一件必然招致反对的事——每个州都会有反对声音。如果二战期间搞全民公决,或者对州际公路系统进行公投,推进速度会被拖慢到难以置信的程度。所以问题在于,如何运用这个国家的力量,真正将它造就成它本该有能力成为的样子,或者在一个由 48 个相连和两三个不相连的州组成的共和国里,让它成为一个能够自我保全的整体。

WARREN BUFFETTYeah, the muscle of the federal government will be needed. But the test of whether you can have 48 or 50, depending on the nature of things, jurisdictions that are cooperating to do something that has opposition–we’ll have opposition in every single state. And if they took in the vote during World War 2 or they took a vote on the Interstate Highway system, it would have been slowed down to an incredible degree. So the question is how to use the strengths of this country to actually turn it into what it should be capable of or self-preserving in a republic with 48 connected and a couple of unconnected States.

沃伦·巴菲特静观其变会很有意思,但我们确实拥有资本,而且确实掌握着极少数机构才有的知识。我的意思是,我们懂得这一行当的门道,但要把这些认知、知识、资本等等整合到一块,绝非易事。这本应是这个国家有能力做到的事情,但这个国家在设计上并不利于此;它当初的设计,就没考虑过要容纳 48 个不同的辖区,而它们足以把我们试图推进的任何事情搅得一团糟。战争时期,达成共识是一回事,但在和平时期,这是另一个难题。这将是留给下一代的问题,但它事关重大。好了,10 号位。

WARREN BUFFETTIt will be interesting to see what happens, but we do have capital, and we actually have some knowledge that very few places have. I mean, that we know what the games are about, but putting together that energy with knowledge and with capital and everything is it’s just not easy. It should be something that we’re capable of in the country, but the country was not designed in a certain way; it was not designed for having 48 different jurisdictions that could mess up anything that we’re attempting to do. During wartime, it’s one thing to get agreement, but during peacetime, it’s a different problem. That’s going to be one for the next generation, but it’s important. OK, station 10.

如何获得伯克希尔·哈撒韦的录用

How to get hired from Berkshire Hathaway

达科斯·唐早上好,巴菲特先生、阿贝尔先生。我叫达科斯·唐,今年 14 岁。我父亲罗伊·唐,MGRTCO 公司,已经连续两年带我来这里了。我保证以后每年都会来,因为为了参加你们的每一次股东大会,我凌晨两点就来排队了。我父亲持有 BRKA 股票,他说我得努力干活,才能自己挣到 BRKB 股份。我们来自中国香港。我想问,对于像我这样的全球青少年,若想如格雷格·阿贝尔先生那样成为伯克希尔的一分子,最关键的要素是什么?我应该学习哪些知识,才能让你们将来愿意聘用我?

DARCUS TANGGood morning, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Abel. I’m Dorcus Tang. I’m 14 years old. My father, Roy Tang MGRTCO, brought me here for two consecutive years. And I promise I will come back every year since I queue up at 2:00 in the morning for every meeting you hold. My dad owned BRKA shares, and he said I need to work hard to earn my peace of BRKB. We are both from China, Hong Kong, and I would like to ask, what’s the essential element for a global teenager like me if we want to be part of Berkshire like Mr. Greg Abel? What piece of knowledge should I learn so you will hire me in the future?

沃伦·巴菲特你问的是未来的事,最好还是问格雷格。那我们就让格雷格来回答这个问题。

WARREN BUFFETTIf you’re talking about the future, you better talk to Greg. So we’ll let Greg answer that.

达科斯·唐我最后再说几句。巴菲特先生,我从这次股东大会上学到了很多,当然,我会年年来参会,也希望您能尽可能多地出席,因为您和查理·芒格先生,两位最令人敬重的人,给了我父亲和我太多的启发。祝您快乐安康。也许未来有一天,我们能如您所说,一道让世界变得更繁荣。谢谢。

DARCUS TANGMy final words. Finally, Mr. Buffett, I learned a lot from this meeting, and of course, I will come here every year, and I wish you could attend as many as possible, as you and Mr. Charlie Munger, the most respectful people, have inspired me and my father a lot. I wish you happiness and health, and maybe one day in the future we can make the world more prosperous altogether, like you said. Thank you.

沃伦·巴菲特好。谢谢你。

WARREN BUFFETTOK. Thank you.

格雷格·阿贝尔嗯,我觉得你父亲说得最到位。他强调,要成为伯克希尔的一部分、持有一些伯克希尔的股票,你得努力工作。而且我认为,努力工作能让我们所有人在人生中走得很远。我绝不否认生活中有很多重要的事,但如果你最初就具备出色的工作态度,并且有渴望贡献的心态,你这一生就会走得非常远,也会从中收获极大的乐趣。因为正如沃伦所说,只要努力工作,你就会找到人生中热爱的东西,它会引导你走向那一步。我们由衷期待你成为伯克希尔一员的那一天。谢谢你。

GREG ABELWell, I think your dad, your dad said it best. He highlighted that to become part of Berkshire to own some Berkshire shares, you’re going to have to work hard, and I think hard work takes all of us a long way in life, and I would never diminish that there are a lot of things that matter in life. But if you start with a great work ethic and have that attitude that you want to contribute, you’re going to go a long ways in life and you’ll find great enjoyment because as Warren said, if you work hard, you’re going to find the things you love in life and it’ll lead to that and we truly look forward to the day you’re part of Berkshire. Thank you.

沃伦·巴菲特保持充沛的好奇心,大量阅读,就像查理会说的那样。好,贝基。

WARREN BUFFETTKeep a lot of curiosity and read a lot, as Charlie would say. OK, Becky.

野火相关责任

Wildfire liabilities

贝基·奎克这个问题来自犹他州雷顿的马修·提萨克。他问道:“请谈谈你们在应对未来因西部公用电力公司被指控引发野火而产生的责任方面,有什么保护策略。”

BECKY QUICKThis question comes from Matthew Tisak in Layton, UT. He said, “Please discuss your strategy on how to protect our company from future liabilities due to wildfires blamed on our electric utility companies out West.”

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,这个问题相当好。我们过去犯过一些错误,那是在 2005 年收购太平洋电力公司(PacifiCorp)的时候。沃尔特·斯科特、戴维·索科尔和我——我们三个骨子里都是资本家,用的也是自己的钱。但我们犯了个错误:没有按我们收购的七个州把它拆分开来。我们收购来的公司是作为一个整体运作的,并未按州界划分,而我们保留了原有的结构,这是一个重大失误。当然,全国每个地方都需要电力,而在有些地方,私人拥有的电力公司在经营上会显得相当不明智,至于这个问题怎么解决,在一个民主体制里,我们终会找到答案。但这些是当前摆在面前的事实,我想说的是。格雷格?

WARREN BUFFETTWell, that’s a very good question. We’ve made some mistakes in the past when we bought PacifiCorp in 2005. Walter Scott, David Sokol, and myself—three guys who were capitalists at heart, and we’re dealing with our own money. But we made a mistake by not carving it up into the seven states that we were buying. It came with an aggregation where it wasn’t state by state, and we kept the same structure, and that was a big mistake. Well, every part of the country is going to need electricity, and there are going to be places where privately held electric utilities would be very foolish to operate and how that gets resolved. In a democracy, we will find out. But those are the facts as they stand now, I would say. Greg?

格雷格·阿贝尔关于野火的风险,也就是说是否会发生野火这件事,这个问题不会消失,我们清楚这一点,而且风险很可能逐年上升。那我们能做些什么来降低它对我们的电网系统和底层资产的影响,以及不幸的是,降低由此类事件引发的责任?我们可以改变并管理这个局面。我们无法消除风险,但可以降低风险。这正是我们西部团队在做的事,但实际上,我们是在整个能源基础设施范围内推行这一做法,因为现实是,野火现在也蔓延到了得克萨斯州。全美各地都发生过不同规模的野火,我们都高度专注于如何管理这类风险。

GREG ABELThe risk around the wildfires, i.e. do the wildfires occur, they’re not going away, and we know that, and the risk probably goes up each year. So what can we do to reduce the risk of it impacting our system and our underlying assets, and unfortunately, the liabilities with such events? We can change that and manage that. We can’t eliminate the risk, but we can reduce that. And that’s where we’ve got our teams in the West, but we really are approaching it across all our energy infrastructure, because the reality is the wildfires have now occurred in Texas. They’ve had a variety of them throughout the US, and we’re all very focused on how we manage that risk.

格雷格·阿贝尔我们的管理方式是,首先从资产本身入手,看资产如何维护、钱投在哪里以及如何投入。我们尽力确保这些资产要么本身不会引发火灾,要么甚至能强化系统,提高抵御能力。我们首先聚焦运营层面。然后把这再推进一步,这也是沃伦和我讨论过很多次的问题,即公用事业公司开始意识到,当这些异常天气事件来临时该怎么做。沃伦提到了在内布拉斯加州发生的暴风雨,但西部地区同样在发生或正在经历重大事件。

GREG ABELHow we manage it is we start by addressing the actual assets, how we’re maintaining them and where we invest them, or invest in them. So we try to make sure that they’re either not causing the fire or potentially even hardening the system as to what they can withstand. We start with the operational focus. We then take it even further, and this is something Warren and I’ve discussed many times, that the utilities started to recognise when we have these unusual weather events. And Warren touched on what’s been happening in Nebraska with storms, but they’re equally occurring or significant events occurring out West.

格雷格·阿贝尔但当遇到这类情况时,我们在如何应对方面已经变得十分、十分在行,那就是,好,我们必须换一种方式管理电网。我们可能会主动断电,因为灾害事件很可能发生。但有一件事我们此前一直没有解决,这与我们在 2020 年太平洋电力公司经历的那起重大事件非常相关,那就是当火灾逼近时,我们没有切断系统电源。因为我们的员工和整个管理团队一辈子都被教导要保障灯火长明,他们最不愿意做的事就是拉下电闸、让电网停止运行。

GREG ABELBut when we have those, we’ve gotten very, very good at saying, OK, we have to manage the system differently. We’ll potentially deenergize because there’s likely to be an event. But the one thing we hadn’t tackled, and this is very relevant to the one significant event we had back in 2020 in PacifiCorp, is that we didn’t deenergize the system as the fire was approaching. Because our employees and the whole management team have been all their whole lives to keep the lights on and the last thing they want to do is turn those lights off and have a system deenergized.

格雷格·阿贝尔在那些事件之后,当我们认真审视如何推进资产管理并降低风险时,我们团队已经清楚地认识到,必须对这些资产实施断电。所以现在,当火灾逼近到一定英里数时,我们就会切断电源,因为我们不想助长火势,也绝不愿伤害任何用户,更别说不幸造成人员死亡。这正是我们不得不让团队转向应对不同风险的地方。重点不再是保障灯火长明,而是保护公众、确保火势不再蔓延。我们已经做到了这一步——在这个问题上我说错了请纠正——但截至目前,我们或许是唯一一家,或者说在我们旗下所有公用事业中,我们大概是唯一这么做的一家,我们对此深信不疑。贝基?

GREG ABELAfter those events and as we really looked at how we’re going to move forward in managing the assets and reducing that risk, we have clearly recognized as a team that we have to deenergize those assets. So now, as we get fires encroaching at a certain number of miles, we deenergize because we do not want to contribute to the fire, nor obviously harm any of our consumers or contribute, unfortunately, if there’s a death. And that’s really where we had to take our team that we’re managing at different risks now. It’s not about keeping the lights on, it’s about protecting the general public and ensuring the fire does not spread further. So we’ve gone as far as that, and I’ll stand corrected on this one, but we’re probably the one utility or across our utilities that does that today, and we strongly believe that. Becky?

贝基·奎克我能接着追问一下吗?如果你们切断了系统供电,导致医院停止运转、有人因此死亡,这不就让你们暴露在另一种风险之下了吗?

BECKY QUICKCan I just follow up on that? Doesn’t that open you up to other risks if you shut down your system, a hospital gets shut down, somebody dies?

格雷格·阿贝尔你知道,好在这是我们确实时常要应对的事情,因为意外停电本来就时有发生。所以当我们在审视关键基础设施时,因为这个问题提得非常好,我们也在持续进行评估,并且确实从客户群体那里收到了大量关于我们该如何处理的反馈。但这件事,我们平时处理的频率比我们预想的要高得多。灯灭了,我们必须确保医院不断电,应急单位能及时响应,诸如此类。不过,风险确实存在。

GREG ABELYou know, fortunately, that’s something that we do deal with a lot because we have power outages that occur by accident. So when we look at critical infrastructure because it’s an excellent point, and we’re constantly reevaluating it, and we do receive a lot of feedback from our customer groups as to how we manage that. But that is something we deal with on a more routine basis than we’d ever like. The lights go out, and we have to make sure the hospitals stay on, emergency units can respond and all that. But there is a risk there.

格雷格·阿贝尔于是,我们花了更多时间去教育客户和客户群体。告诉他们,好,这些事情会发生。我们需要了解你们的特殊情况,以及怎样才能更好地应对它们。我们不会只是被动地接过另一项责任。所以围绕断电有大量工作要做。然后,最后一步,沃伦已经提到过了,就是在能源政策方面,总体而言,我们必须跟各州及监管机构合作,以确保这从来就不是我们在投资公用事业时承担或预见到的风险,也不是任何投资了其他能源公司的投资者会预见的风险。你过去获取的是一套非常固定的回报,对应承担的是与该资产相关的非常明确的风险,而现在的情况已经远远超出了那个范畴。

GREG ABELSo then we spend a lot more time educating the consumers and our consumer groups, our customers. OK, this is what will happen. We need to understand your unusual situations and how we can best tackle them, again. So we just don’t take on another liability. So there’s a lot around deenergization. Then, just to take it to the last step, and Warren touched on that, in general on energy policy, we have to work with our States and our regulators to ensure this was never a risk we took on or envisioned when we were investing in utilities, nor would any of the investors who’ve invested in other energy companies. You were in a very set return for taking on a very set defined risk associated with that asset, and this has gone well beyond that.

格雷格·阿贝尔我们挣不到那类回报,也不可能挣到足够高的回报来承担这种风险。所以这不只是解决回报端的问题。我们切实需要解决风险端的问题,这意味着要与监管机构合作,与各州立法者合作,以找到正确的解决方案,这将是一个持续的过程。没有什么灵丹妙药,但每天,我们各家公用事业公司的团队都在努力降低风险,同时清醒地认识到,野火的根本风险并不会消失。

GREG ABELWe don’t earn the type of returns, nor can you earn a large enough return to take on this risk. So it’s not just about solving the return side. We really have to solve the risk side, which means we work with our regulators, we’re working with our state legislators to get to the right answer, and that will be an ongoing process. There are no silver bullets out there, but every day our teams across utilities are working hard to reduce that risk, recognizing the fundamental risk of the wildfires is not going away.

沃伦·巴菲特有些问题本来就没法解决,我们不应该拿着你们的钱、投资者的钱,去解决那些我们根本不知道答案的问题。你可以摆出各种论据,但当你在跟州政府或联邦政府打交道时,那是个政治决策。如果你陷入注定会输的事情,最重要的就是退出。

WARREN BUFFETTThere are some problems that can’t be solved, and we shouldn’t be in the business of taking your money, investors’ money and tackling things that we don’t know the solution for. You can present the arguments, but it’s a political decision when you are dealing with states or the federal government. If you’re in something where you’re going to lose, the big thing to do is quit.

沃伦·巴菲特即便你尽可能地把道理讲得明明白白,把该做的都做到位了,但如果最终执笔决策的不是你,那我们就没资格拿你们的钱去干蠢事。我们可以尽力解释什么是明智的做法,但钱是你们的。所以这很难界定。我有很多关于那些政治决策的疑问,这些决策很多时候会走上法庭,但你知道这根本不合理。我们知道我们认为合理的制度是什么样的,我们应当解释我们的想法,尽最大努力争取支持,因为这对社会有利。他们有理由采取正确方案。但正确的方案,打个比方,就像州际公路系统,当初就不该让 48 个州各自决定怎么建,然后各自把工程分包出去。你知道,有些问题根本没法解决,而我们不做那种试图解决无解问题的生意。

WARREN BUFFETTIf you do present your case as well as you can, and everything else, but if you don’t hold the pen in the end, you know we don’t have any business taking your money and doing dumb things with us. We can do our best to explain what the intelligent things are, but it’s your money. So it’s very hard to tell on that. I have all the questions about politically determined decisions that are going to go to court in many cases, but you know that it doesn’t make sense. We know what we think a sensible system would be, and we ought to explain what we think it is and do our best to get our position because it’s pro-social. They have the right solution to have it. But the right solution, for example, in the Interstate, wasn’t to let 48 states each decide their own way of doing it, and award contractors the jobs. You know, there are some problems that can’t be solved, and we are not in the business of trying to solve insolvable problems.

沃伦·巴菲特但我们紧接着面临的问题,当然是,替你工作的人,那是他们的饭碗。他们会想找理由继续干下去,如果你是管理者,就得做出艰难的抉择,但这也恰恰是为什么要设管理者的原因。

WARREN BUFFETTBut then the problem we have, of course, is that the people who work for you, that’s their job. So they want to have reasons to keep going, and those are tough choices if you’re managing, but that’s why they have managers.

格雷格·阿贝尔嘿,沃伦。我能补充一句吗,因为你刚才提到了一个确实很重要的问题,那就是,举个例子,我们在公用事业和山火方面,不能就只是变成最后的保险兜底者,不管发生了什么,我们都得承担所有成本、一切成本。我们现在正面临的这个最大挑战——2020 年的那场山火,就有点这个意思,当时有四场火灾同时在棘手的时间段里爆发。

GREG ABELHey, Warren. Can I just add, because you touched on something really important there, that effectively is, for example, with the utilities and the wildfires. we can’t just become the insurer of last resort. And that we’re going to cover any costs and all costs irrespective of what occurred. And that’s a little bit of the situation we’re in right now with our largest challenge, the 2020 wildfire, there were four fires occurring at a challenging time.

格雷格·阿贝尔第一,我们一直声称,那次雷击并非发生在我们服务区域内。是大火烧进了我们的服务区域,然后通过法院判决,我们实际上要为那场火灾承担责任,而我们始终坚定认为我们不应负责。说句公道话,我们既没有促成火灾,也没有引发火灾,而且我们从来不觉得自己对此有过任何贡献。

GREG ABELOne, we’ve always asserted was a lightning strike that was not inside our service territory. The fire burned into our service territory, and we became responsible for that fire, effectively, through the courts, and we’ve continued to hold firm that we’re not responsible for that. Rightfully, I mean, we didn’t contribute to it, and we didn’t initiate it, nor did we feel we ever contributed to it.

格雷格·阿贝尔再说一次,如果你看那些风险,我们得应对类似的事情。我们会撑过那场诉讼。比如,我们很高兴可以报告,那个案子五年之后,俄勒冈州林业局已经公开确认,我们当时能够控制并扑灭的那些其他火灾,并没有导致那场大火。而那四场火灾中的第四场是最大的,占到了索赔金额的 60%。我们花了五年时间,才把这些证据有效提交到法庭。

GREG ABELAgain, if you look at the risks that are there, we have to manage through things like that. We’ll get through that litigation. We’re happy to report, for example, on that one. After five years, the Oregon Forestry Department has come out and said the fires, the other fires we did have that we were able to manage and extinguish, did not contribute to that fire. And that fourth fires the largest fire of the four, it’s 60% of the claims. We’re five years into effectively getting that information into the courts.

格雷格·阿贝尔这会勾勒出我们接下来的法律策略,但这也是我们正在应对的问题。作为公用事业公司,我们持续从这次经历中吸取教训。所以,正如我说的,我们在每个州的立法机构都很活跃,确保明确定义责任归属、经济损失的范围,最重要的是,非经济损失的范围。我们的想法是,我们不能成为最后的承保人。我们不能对某个州里发生的一切都负责。

GREG ABELNow that will outline our legal strategy obviously going forward, but it’s things we’re dealing with, but we continue to learn from this as a utility in the industry. So we’re in very much each of the legislatures, as I said, making sure we get a clear definition where liability falls, what the economic damages be, but most importantly, what the non-economic damages be. And with the thought, we can’t be the insurer of last resort. We just can’t be responsible for everything that happens in a state.

沃伦·巴菲特如果我们想用自己的钱干,那我们完全可以干,但我们不会拿你们的钱去干我们认为愚蠢的事。要是我们真这么干了,你们就该把我们换掉。拿别人的钱干蠢事,比拿自己的钱容易得多。这是政府普遍面临的问题之一。我们可不想把这种毛病带到私营企业里来。

WARREN BUFFETTIf we want to do it with our own money, we can do it, but we’re not going to do things with your money that we think are stupid. You ought to get rid of us if we do. It’s easier to do stupid things with other people’s money than it is with your own money. That’s one of the problems the government has, generally. We don’t want to bring it to private enterprise.

沃伦·巴菲特但美国拥有一条明智的能源政策确实很重要,就像二战期间我们迅速学会如何制造船只而不是汽车一样重要。我们当时找到了解决办法,将私营企业与政府力量结合了起来。但这事在民主体制下可行性有多高呢?二战期间,需要做什么一清二楚,我们也做到了。但当 3.3 亿人都在为自己的利益争论,由他们来决定事态走向,而做决策的人往往还抱着 20 年前的反应方式,自己实际上又不为决策后果负责——这时候事情就没那么明确了。不管怎样,这就是管理,我们会尽力而为。第十一区。

WARREN BUFFETTBut it is important that the United States have an intelligent energy policy, just as it was important during World War II that we learned how to make ships instead of cars extremely fast. We figured out the answer. We combined private enterprise with the power of government. But how feasible is that in a democracy? You know, it was clearly obvious during World War II what needed to be done, and we did it. But it’s not so clear when you have 330 million people all arguing their own self-interest, and of course deciding what will happen and having the people often who are making the decisions, reacting as they did 20 years earlier, when they don’t really bear the responsibility for the decision. Anyway, that’s management, and we’ll do our best. Station 11.

如何与沃伦·巴菲特预约见面

How to get a meeting with Warren Buffett

阿莉蒂亚·布雷克你好,我叫阿莉蒂亚·布雷克,来自波兰,现居芝加哥。这个问题,是替我认识的一位很鼓舞人的朋友维德·艾哈迈德提的,他今天也在现场。巴菲特先生,近 74 年前,在 1951 年 1 月一个寒冷的星期六,你坐了 8 小时火车,从纽约赶到华盛顿。你千里迢迢,就只凭一个念想:希望有人能多教教你保险行业的事。

<<<END P 8>>>

ALITIA BUREKHello, my name is Alitia Burek, and I’m from Poland, but I currently live in Chicago. This question is on behalf of an inspiring man that I know, Wid Ahmed, who’s here with us today. Mr. Buffett, nearly 74 years ago, on a cold Saturday in January 1951. You travelled 8 hours by train from New York to Washington. You went all the way on nothing but hope that someone might teach you more about the insurance industry.

阿莉蒂亚·布雷克您到 GEICO 办公室时发现大门紧锁,但您坚持不走,最后一名清洁工把您领了进去。您把那次与洛里默·戴维森的会面归功于保险浮存金——这是伯克希尔成功背后的火箭燃料。2011 年,我 15 岁时,以同样的决心给您写信,请求见面。您善意地回绝了,说自己只剩 3000 天可活,还有更紧迫的事要做。

ALITIA BUREKArriving at GEICO’s office to find the doors locked. You persisted until a janitor led you inside. You credit that meeting with Lorimer Davidson for the insurance float. That was the rocket fuel behind Berkshire’s success. In 2011, when I was 15, I wrote to you with similar determination, asking to meet. You kindly rolled back, saying you had only 3000 days left and more pressing priorities.

阿莉蒂亚·布雷克巴菲特先生,从您回复到现在已经过去 5000 天了。受您 1951 年那股韧劲和 B 夫人那样不屈不挠精神的启发,我谦卑地再次提出请求——只要戴维当年您给出的四分之一时间,也就是在您办公室见一小时。您可能会问,为什么非得是您?您常讲一个故事:一位在奥斯维辛集中营幸存下来的波兰犹太人曾对您说,“沃伦,我交朋友特别慢,因为我看一个人时,会问自己,他会不会藏我?”您说,愿意藏你的人的数量,是衡量一个人一生是否活得好最好的标尺。那么,我认为,在这场股东大会上,您拥有的不是 4 万名股东,而是 4 万个愿意藏您的人。您的一生,活得太棒了。然而,即便您自己,也尚未完全见证这种客户与顾问关系的变革力量——

ALITIA BUREKWell, Mr. Buffett, it’s now been 5000 days since you replied. And so, inspired by your persistence in 1951 and the tenacity of Mrs. B, humbly renewed my request for just a quarter of the time Davey gave you—a single hour in your office. You may wonder why it must be you have often shared an anecdote about a Polish Jew who survived Auschwitz, who said to you once, “Warren, I’m very slow to make friends because when I look at someone, I ask myself, would they hide me?” You said that the number of people who would hide you was the best test of a life well-lived. Well, I believe that at this meeting you don’t have 40,000 shareholders, but you have 40,000 people who would hide you. You are a testament to a life extraordinarily well lived. Yet even you have not fully witnessed this transformative power of a client–

沃伦·巴菲特我会让你来写我的传记,但我觉得你问题的关键就在这儿。

WARREN BUFFETTI’ll let you write my biography, but I think that’s the point of your question.

阿莉蒂亚·布雷克所以我再恭敬地问一次,巴菲特先生,在时间老人获胜之前,您能否给维德·艾哈迈德一个小时的时间,或者任何您能抽出的时间?非常感谢您的时间。

ALITIA BUREKSo respectfully, I ask again, Mr. Buffett, before Father Time wins, will you please grant Wid Ahmed an hour of your time or any time you can dedicate? Thank you so much for your time.

沃伦·巴菲特谢谢,我想对在座的 4 万人说,每人多给一小时的话,我这辈子剩下的时间就过得有趣多了。不过我可以给你们一个诀窍。我年轻时就发现,那些公司不太主流,那时候它们也没有投资者关系部门。几乎每个首席执行官都愿意见我,因为他们觉得以后再也不会见到我了,而且他们之前也没接过这样的电话。

WARREN BUFFETTThank you, and I will say this to grant an hour to everybody of the 40,000 here. We’ll have an interesting time the rest of my life. But I will give you one tip. I found that when I was very young, and these companies were offbeat, they didn’t have investor relations departments then. Almost every CEO would see me because they figured they’d never see me again, and they weren’t getting calls like that.

沃伦·巴菲特我会问两个问题,同时我得跟他们解释——顺便说一句,这个方法不坏。如果你要走进某人的办公室,说想要占用他们 10 分钟时间,那就拿一个沙漏放在你对面那人的桌上,把它倒转过来。这样沙漏会走 10 分钟,你就说,10 分钟后你会走,除非他们请你留下,这就是条件。但一旦你有了这个条件——假如他们在煤炭行业,而这恰好是大约 70 年前我感兴趣的一个行业——他们只需问一个问题:如果他们被困在荒岛上,必须在 10 年内只能持有一家竞争对手的股票,那会是哪一家,为什么?

WARREN BUFFETTI would ask two questions, as I would have to explain to them, it’s not a bad idea, incidentally. If you’re going to walk into somebody’s office and you say you want 10 minutes of their time, take an hourglass and stick it on the desk of the person you’re talking to and turn it up. So it’s going to go for 10 minutes and just say you’re going to get, you’re going to leave in 10 minutes. Unless they ask you to stay, and that’s the terms. But then once you have that—If they’re in the coal business, we’ll say, which happened to be one that I was interested in 70 years ago or so—they just ask one question that if they were to be stuck on a desert island and they had to own only one of their competitors stocked during the 10 years, which one would it be and why?

沃伦·巴菲特然后等他们回答完,你再问同样的问题:如果让你在岛上做空自己的净资产,你会选哪家,为什么?因为每个经理人都喜欢聊竞争对手。一谈起对手,他们就跟一群小学生似的。我大概就是从这当中学会了不少行业的门道——只要确保他们觉得我不会待太久,同时把话头交给他们,让他们去聊对手。那些年我一直管住自己的嘴。

WARREN BUFFETTAnd then after they give you the answer, you ask the same thing if you would be short your net worth while you were on that island, which would it be, and why? Because every manager likes to talk about their competitors. They’re like a bunch of school kids when they get into talking about their competitors. I probably learned more about various industries by just making sure that they didn’t think I’d stay too long, and that in the meantime, they would have the floor and talk about their competitors. I kept my own mouth shut in those days.

沃伦·巴菲特他们把投资者关系搞成了部门化。说实话,现在所有大公司都这样。所以,你有三千来家公司,它们都有各自的部门,每家差不多都有个投资者关系部。这些人干的活儿就是跟你说:你今天最该做的事就是买我们的股票。整这套理念完全是扯淡。但这是个庞大的产业,而且越来越大,投资者关系部门也跟着膨胀,这就是我们现在的局面。不过,你还是应该靠自己,用自己的方式做点功课。伯克希尔·哈撒韦有的是材料供你阅读,等你看完所有这些材料,你会比伯克希尔内部大多数员工都明白得多。

WARREN BUFFETTThey’ve departmentalised investor relations. All companies of size, frankly, now. So you’ve got, you know, 3000 companies or whatever they have, and they all have departments, and each one of them has an Investor Relations department practically. And their job is to say, This is the best thing you can do today is buy our stock. We’ll let the whole concept is totally idiocy. But it’s a big business, and it gets bigger, and the Investor Relations department gets bigger, and it’s what we have now. But do a little of your own work, your own way. But Berkshire Hathaway has got plenty of material out there for you to read, and when you get through reading it all, you’ll know way more than most of the people who work at Berkshire.

沃伦·巴菲特所以你不需要一对一面谈。就算我们只花一小时,乘上现场可能多达 4 万人,再加上贝基的听众和观众,根本安排不过来。我欣赏你的热情,但你也只能接受现实,就当这是大家给你的赞赏吧。好了,贝基。

WARREN BUFFETTSo you don’t need a personal interview. If we take an hour times even the 40,000 people we may have here, plus Becky’s many listeners and viewers, it just doesn’t work. So I admire your effort, but you’ll just have to settle for that, as the admiration that you get in this. OK. Becky.

BHE 的估值

BHE’s valuation

贝基·奎克这个问题你在很多方面都谈到了,上一个回答也提到了,但我确实从好几个人那里收到了这个问题。所以我想问一下。里卡多·布里兹,一位长期股东,家住巴拿马,他说他看到伯克希尔收购了 BHE 的 100% 股权很高兴。这笔交易分两步完成:第一步在 2022 年末,从格雷格·阿贝尔手中以 8.7 亿美元买下了 1% 的股份,这意味着 BHE 的估值是 870 亿美元;第二步在 2024 年,以 39 亿美元从沃尔特·斯科特家族手中买下剩余的 8% 股份,这意味着企业估值是 488 亿美元。这第二笔更大的交易,仅仅两年时间估值就下降了 44%。里卡多写道,好像不能拿 PacifiCorp 的负债规模太小来解释这个差异。那么,是什么因素导致 BHE 在这两个时间点上的估值不一样呢?

BECKY QUICKThis is a question that you touched on in a lot of ways, and the last answer from before, but I did get this question from a few different people. So I’d like to ask it. Ricardo Briz, a long-time shareholder based in Panama, says that he was very happy to see Berkshire acquire 100% of BHE. It was done in two steps, one in late 2022, 1% was purchased from Greg Abel for $870 million, implying a valuation of BHE of $87 billion. And then two, in 2024, the remaining 8% was purchased from the family of Walter Scott Jr. for $3.9 billion, implying a valuation of $48.8 billion for the enterprise. That second larger transaction represented a 44% reduction in valuation in just two years. Ricardo writes that PacifiCorp’s liabilities seemed too small to explain this. Therefore, what factors contributed to the difference in value for BHE between those two moments in time?

沃伦·巴菲特我们不知道在太平洋电力公司会因各种决策最终损失多少,但我们也知道,这个特定案例反映出的某些态度,我在整个公用事业系统里都能找到类似影子。到目前为止,有很多个州的经营环境一直相当良好、友善。但眼下也有一些州,简直就是毒药。

WARREN BUFFETTWe don’t know how much we’ll lose out on PacifiCorp and decisions that are made, but we also know that certain of the attitudes demonstrated by that particular example, I’ve got analogues throughout the utility system and there’s a lot of States that so far have been very good, decent to operate in. And there are some, now, they’re rat poison.

沃伦·巴菲特正如查理常说的,这种认知在我们实际运营中被进一步强化了。我们先是看到了太平洋西北地区发生的事,而后,公用事业公司在其他一些地方的遭遇又进一步印证了这一点。除此以外,这还不只是涉及太平洋电力公司个别情况的问题,它是一种社会趋势的延伸。

WARREN BUFFETTAs Charlie would say, to operate in that knowledge was accentuated. When we saw what happened in the Pacific Northwest and it’s accentuated by what we’ve seen as to how utilities have been treated in certain other situations. And then on top of that, it wasn’t just a direct question of what was involved at PacifiCorp. It’s an extrapolation of a societal trend.

沃伦·巴菲特其次,我们在房地产领域还做出了一个完全出乎意料的决定。这类事情足以改变资产价值,法院的裁决也能改变资产价值。当你的持仓只是有价证券时,做出这类决定要远比经营企业容易得多。这 70 年来,我目睹过各个行业和公司的兴衰变迁,自己也做过许多类似的决定。但这次是格雷格做出了退出的决定,我们完全同意。他事先对房地产或公用事业领域将要发生什么毫不知情,而我们目前也没有出售任何相关业务的打算。

WARREN BUFFETTSecondly, we also had a decision we didn’t expect at all in the real estate business. Those kinds of things can change values, and courts can change values. It’s a lot easier to make those decisions when you just own marketable securities than when you own businesses. I’ve made plenty of those decisions as I’ve watched what has happened in various industries and companies over 70 years. But Greg made the decision, which was fine with us, to get out. He had no knowledge of what was going to be happening in either the real estate field or the utility field, and we’re not in the mood to sell any business of it.

沃伦·巴菲特但伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源现在的价值比两年前低了不少,这要归因于社会因素的影响,我们旗下的一些其他业务也会碰到这种情况。我们的纺织业务当然就经历过。公用事业这门生意已经不像几年前那么好了,谁要是不信,看看夏威夷电力,再看看加州当前山火情势下的爱迪生国际以及那些社会趋势,就一目了然了。

WARREN BUFFETTBut Berkshire Hathaway Energy is worth considerably less money than it was two years ago, based on societal factors, and that happens in some of our businesses. It certainly happened to our textile business. The public utility business is not as good a business as it was a couple of years ago, and if anybody doesn’t believe that thing, look at Hawaiian Electric and they look and look at Edison in the current wildfires situation in California and their societal trends.

沃伦·巴菲特哦,我刚从面前的屏幕上看到一条消息,写着:“书已售罄。”所以大伙儿可以把钱花在别的东西上了。这里还有软糖,我现在就在吃。

WARREN BUFFETTOh, I just got a note here on my monitor that says, “The books are now sold out.” So you spend your money on other things. Here’s fudge. This is what I’m eating.

沃伦·巴菲特但这正是对估值变化的解释——价值是会变的,并不总是朝上走。当初跟格雷格做那笔交易时,我们原本也乐意以那个价格买下斯科特家族的股份;等到我们需要跟斯科特公司交易的时候,我们可就不会乐意按格雷格当初拿到的价格去付钱了。这和伯克希尔回购股票是一个道理:我们当初在 X 价位买过,但情况变了,我们也会在比 X 低的价位买进。这么多年来,我们付出的价格越来越高,是因为价值在积累,只是这个过程并非一条直线。

WARREN BUFFETTBut that’s the explanation—values change, and they don’t always change upwards. When we made the deal with Greg, we would have been happy to buy out the Scott family at that price, and when we needed to deal with the Scott Company, we wouldn’t have been happy to pay Greg the price he received. But that’s like Berkshire shares we bought in stock at X, and we buy in stock at less than X if conditions change. Over the years, we pay more and more because it builds in value, but it doesn’t do it in a straight line.

沃伦·巴菲特我得说,我们现在收购公用事业公司的热情,跟几年前已经不同了。其他行业也会有这种情况,但在公用事业领域尤其显著。之所以特别显著,是因为这些公司未来需要海量资金。而如果你需要海量资金,你或许就该采取一种能激励别人把钱交到你手上的做法,接下来我们且行且看。我们希望公用事业能发展好,但我们对伯克希尔·哈撒韦的股东更负有责任。好了,再回到一号站。

WARREN BUFFETTI would say that our enthusiasm for buying public utility companies is different now than it would have been a couple of years ago. That happens in other industries, too, but it’s pretty dramatic in public utilities. And it’s particularly dramatic in public utilities because they are going to need lots of money. So, if you’re going to need lots of money, you probably ought to behave in a way that encourages people to give you lots of money, and then we will see where we go. We’d like to see Public Utilities do well, but our responsibilities to the shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway. OK, station 1, again.

伯克希尔·哈撒韦的盈利能力

Berkshire Hathaway’s earning power

布雷维·帕尼拉亲爱的沃伦,亲爱的格雷格,以及亲爱的股东伙伴们,能来到这里我倍感荣幸。我叫布雷维·帕尼拉,出生于社会主义时期的阿尔巴尼亚,现在在英格兰伦敦教授经济学。沃伦和查理那些精彩绝伦的文字,深刻地塑造了我的思维方式和教学内容。由衷感谢二位多年来分享的真知灼见。沃伦常写到伯克希尔的盈利能力对股东的重要性。我的问题是,你如何评估伯克希尔在最近一个财年的盈利能力?如果能对比伯克希尔报告的净利润指标,谈谈有哪些重要项目显著增加或削弱了盈利能力,那就更好了。谢谢。

BREVI PANILADear Warren, dear Greg and dear fellow owners, it’s such a pleasure to be here. My name is Brevi Panila. I was born in Communist Albania, but I’m now teaching economics in London, England. The wonderful writing of Warren and Charlie has significantly shaped my thinking and teaching. I thank you both very much for the many insights over the years. Warren often writes about the importance of Berkshire’s earning power to owners. My question is what was in your estimate of Berkshire’s earning power in the latest fiscal year? It will be great if you can comment on any significant items that either increased or decreased the earning power as compared to the reported net income measures for Berkshire. Thank you.

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我认为我们的基础盈利能力前一阵子受到了公用事业领域变动的负面影响。我们的盈利能力并没有因完成任何大规模收购而增厚,不过这类收购会周期性出现。我们迟早会再次看到机会——就说那笔 100 亿美元的收购吧,要是能成,我们本可以增强盈利能力的。否则,我们为什么要去做呢?

WARREN BUFFETTWell, I think our underlying earning power was affected negatively here a while back by what happened in the utility field. I think that our earning power was not enlarged by any large acquisitions that come along, but they come along periodically. So we will see something at some point that—Well, on the one that was 10 billion, we would have added to earning power. I mean, why else would we do it?

沃伦·巴菲特所以说,这完全要看具体情境,当然也非常依赖于大盘走势、利率动向和心理变化。我们最好的交易往往是在人们最悲观的时候做的。要知道,从我 1930 年出生以来,向来如此。我出生的头两年,机会变得越来越有吸引力,可惜我当时显然没做任何事。但你看,那可是一生一遇的良机,我却因为操心邻床婴儿之类的事给白白错过了。

WARREN BUFFETTSo that’s very situational, and of course it depends so much on what the general market is doing and what interest rates are doing and what psychology is doing. We will make our best deals when people are the most pessimistic. You know that’s been true ever since I was born in 1930. When I was born, things got much more attractive over the next two years, and apparently, I didn’t do anything about it then. But you know, that was the opportunity of a lifetime, and I blew it by worrying about the kid in the next crib or something.

沃伦·巴菲特在我这一生中,有时会迎来极好的机会,而这些机会之所以出现,正是因为人性难改。我对很多事情都会感到恐惧。我可不想去当什么高空走钢丝的,在两座摩天大楼之间踩一条细绳之类,但在财务上,旁人害怕的东西我却不会害怕。要知道,如果伯克希尔,就假设说,下周跌掉 50%,我会把这看成是做梦都不敢想的好机会,丝毫不会感到烦恼,可大多数人不会这么想,他们的反应就是不一样。

WARREN BUFFETTOver my lifetime, you know, I’ve had fabulous opportunities sometimes, and they happen because humans are human. I’m fearful of all kinds of things. I don’t want to try to be one of the launders and walk on a tiny strip between a couple of twin towers or something or whatever it may be, but I don’t get fearful of things that other people get afraid of in a financial way. And you know the idea that if Berkshire went, let’s say Berkshire went down 50% next week, I would regard that as a fantastic opportunity, and then it wouldn’t bother me in the least, and most people aren’t, they just react differently.

沃伦·巴菲特不是我没有情绪,而是我对股票价格没有情绪。我的意思是,那些决策会一路进入我的大脑,而情绪则可能卡在某个地方。所以,伯克希尔随着我们保留资金——我们每天都在做事、做决策,人们在工作或留存收益——它的盈利能力会随时间增长。我们会打造盈利能力,但它不会以平稳的曲线到来,也肯定不会与市场价格的涨跌以每 1 美元对 1 美元的方式匹配。而正因如此,这才是一桩好生意。你知道,投资生意的美妙之处在于,并非所有事物都被合理定价,其他人越愚蠢,你的机会就越好。好了,贝基。

WARREN BUFFETTIt’s not that I don’t have emotions, but I don’t have emotions about the prices of stocks. I mean, those decisions get all the way to my brain, whereas emotions can get bogged down somewhere. So Berkshire will increase its earning power over time, as we retain money, I mean, we are doing things, making decisions every day, people are working or retaining earnings. We will build the earning power, but it won’t be coming in any even stream, and it certainly won’t be matched dollar for dollar on either the upside or the downside in market prices, and that’s what makes it a good business, and you know the investment businesses that everything isn’t properly appraised and the sillier other people get, the better your opportunities get. OK, Becky.

投资大型科技公司

Investing in big-tech

贝基·奎克这个问题来自 Achit Patel,问的是大型科技股。在 2017 年股东大会上,你说沃伦,这些公司根本不需要多少资金来运营,还称它们为理想生意——你指的是那些大型科技公司,苹果、Alphabet、微软和亚马逊。如今,这些公司都在宣布大规模资本投入,围绕 AI 野心展开,你对当初“轻资产”这个说法有没有重新思考?你又怎么看它们现在的状况?

BECKY QUICKThis question comes from Achit Patel, and it’s about the big-cap technology stocks. In the 2017 annual meeting, you said Warren, you really don’t need any money to run these companies and referred to them as ideal businesses, referring to the big tech companies, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon. With all of those companies now announcing massive capital investment endeavours and around AI ambitions, have you rethought the above comment just in terms of them being asset-light and what you think of them as a result?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,不用掏钱就能赚大钱,总比投一大笔钱才赚大钱要好。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, it’s always better to make a lot of money without putting up anything than to make a lot of money by putting up a lot of money.

沃伦·巴菲特所以,有一种几乎不需要资本投入的生意——可口可乐。最终产品,经过装瓶公司等环节,需要大量资本。但就销售其中所用的糖浆或浓缩液而言,它不需要太多资本。所以,一个是极好的生意,另一个嘛,嗯,取决于它在哪儿以及诸如此类的情况。可口可乐在各地都很受欢迎。但在某些地方,我的意思是,如果你做装瓶生意,那要花真金白银。你要有实实在在的卡车,要有各种各样的机器,还要面临持续的资本支出。

WARREN BUFFETTSo, a business that takes no capital to speak of—Coca-Cola. The finished product, which has gone through bottling companies and everything, takes a lot of capital. But in terms of selling the syrup or the concentrate that goes into it, it doesn’t take a lot of capital. So one is a fabulous business, and one is a, yeah, it depends where it is and everything like that. Coca-Cola is popular in every place. But some places, and I mean, if you’re in the bottling business, it costs real money. You have real trucks out there, and you have all kinds of machinery, and you have capital expenditures coming up.

沃伦·巴菲特我们有些业务只占用极少的资本,却能产生极高的资本回报。而那些政客们嘴里嚷嚷着回报率很高的行业,实际上从资本角度看,回报并不高。财产意外险是个挺稀缺的生意,因为你需要资本当作担保金,用来确保你会兑现承诺,但同时你又能拿这笔钱去收购其他资本消耗低的业务。

WARREN BUFFETTWe’ve got businesses that take very little capital that make really high returns on capital, and the ones the politicians talk about are making high returns, actually aren’t making high returns, in terms of capital. Property casualty insurance is kind of a rare business because you need capital as a guarantee fund that you will keep your promises, but you can use it to buy other low-intensive capital.

沃伦·巴菲特我的意思是,你可以买入苹果,这会对那门生意形成支撑。所以那可以是一门相当不错的生意,这也是我们长期表现良好的原因之一。未来资本密集程度会如何变化,这值得关注。跟几年前相比,七圣徒的资本密集度正在提高。我的意思是,基本上苹果这些年其实并不需要什么资本,而且它回购了大量股票,股本大幅缩减。未来世界是否还会跟过去一样,那就是另一回事了。

WARREN BUFFETTI mean, you can buy Apple, and that would support that business. So that can be a pretty good business, and that’s one of the reasons we’ve done well over time. It’ll be interesting to see how much capital intensity. There’s more capital intensity going on with the magnificent 7 than there was a few years ago. I mean, basically, Apple has not really needed any capital over the years and its repurchased shares that dramatic amount of reduction. Whether that world is the same in the future or not is something.

沃伦·巴菲特好莱坞的法子,永远是从别人那儿弄钱来投。这国家里好多人大发其财,说白了就是琢磨出怎么让别人出钱,资产管理这行干的也是这个。他们靠抽别人资本的水,赚得盆满钵满。

WARREN BUFFETTHollywood’s answer was always to get their money from other people to put up the capital. A lot of people have gotten very rich in the country by essentially figuring out how to get others to put up the capital, and that’s what people do in the money management business. They get very, very rich because they get an override on other people’s capital.

沃伦·巴菲特顺便说一句,如果去年你们所有人为伯克希尔的投资管理支付 1% 的管理费,那就要付 80 亿美元的管理费,而你们其实根本没必要这么干。但投资管理这行确实来钱,因为别人出资本,你对他们这笔钱收管理费,不管他们赚不赚钱;要是他们赚了,你还能收得更多。

<<<END P 8>>>

WARREN BUFFETTIncidentally, if all of you were paying 1% for investment management fees at Berkshire last year, you would have paid $8 billion for managing, and you really wouldn’t have had to do it, but investment management is a very good game because other people put up the capital and you charge them for the capital, whether they do well or not. And then you can charge them a lot more if they do well.

沃伦·巴菲特我是说,对于从事这行的人来说,这是个设计得很好的生意,谁也不能指责他们,这就是资本主义。我在所罗门兄弟工作的时候就亲眼看过了,但不用非得亲眼见到,我早就知道它存在。人生的一大诀窍,就是拿到别人的钱,然后从中抽成。查理和我后来觉得,这行当不够体面,但我们并不批评它的有效性。只是一段时间后,它对我们没吸引力了。不过我自己也干了 12 年,差不多吧。

WARREN BUFFETTI mean it’s a well-designed business for the people who practice it, and who can blame them, I mean, that is capitalism. I saw that in operation when I was working at Solomon, but I didn’t need to see it. I knew it existed anyway. The trick in life is to get somebody else’s capital, get an override on it. Charlie and I decided it wasn’t too elegant the business after a while, but we were not criticizing the efficacy of it. It just didn’t appeal to us after a while. I did it for 12 years, though, or something.

沃伦·巴菲特查理和我和其他人有一个不同之处,就是我们把自己所有的钱都投了进去,这样做确实是用我们自己的资本与大家共担损失,但我们在其他人的资本上获得了超额收益分配。有些人搞的那种预付模式,几乎不用自己投入什么资本,就能从别人的资本上拿到超额分配。这确实是一门相当好的生意,但也容易滋生大量滥用行为。

WARREN BUFFETTThe one difference that Charlie and I did from other people is that we put all our own money in and did it so we really did share the losses with our own capital, but we got an override on other people’s capital. And that’s been people have made advances where they get the override on other people’s capital without putting up any of their own capital to speak of. And that’s a very good business, but it can lead to a lot of abuse.

沃伦·巴菲特格雷格,你一直在关注美国的资本管理情况,你觉得加拿大在这方面是落后了,还是有什么不同?

WARREN BUFFETTGreg, you’ve watched capital management in the United States, and would you say that Canada’s behind or any in that respect?

格雷格·阿贝尔嗯,沃伦,我认为就他们的资本体系而言,跟美国非常相似。毫无疑问,如我们所知,我觉得美国作为拥有资本主义体系的国家,几乎没有什么国家能比得上。而当我想到加拿大,那里只是有些责任或义务,政府希望承担起来,不会留给公共部门。这只是社会或加拿大人民做出的决定。或者你看看另一个国家,比如澳大利亚或其他地方,情况又会不同。但当我想到资本主义,那种驱动力和欲望是存在的,想要正确地配置资本。这方面非常相似。

GREG ABELWell, I think when it comes to their capital system, Warren, it’s very comparable. There’s no question other than as we know, I mean I think the US as far as having a capitalist system, it would be tough to be touched by any country, and when I think of Canada, there’s just certain responsibilities or obligations that the government wants to take on and aren’t going to leave with the public sector. And that’s just a decision that’s made by society or by the Canadian people, or if you look at another country, Australia or wherever it may be, it’s different. But when I think of capitalism, that drive is there and the desire to, you know, allocate capital properly. It’s very similar.

沃伦·巴菲特你想想看,它在美国创造了奇迹。但最初,像洛克菲勒、肯尼迪、卡内基这些人,他们是实实在在自己掏钱去建钢厂、炼油厂、输油管之类的东西。他们拿自己的钱来投资。现在呢,窍门变成了用别人的钱。你知道,你不能怪人类像人类一样行事,但你应该清楚他们的动机是什么。美国的资本主义取得了你从未见过的成功。它是一幢宏伟的大教堂,创造出了世界从未有过的经济体。然后,旁边还附带着一座巨大的赌场。

WARREN BUFFETTIt’s produced wonders in the United States if you think about it. But originally, with the Rockefellers and Kennedys and Carnegies and all that, they actually put up money to build a steel mill, whatever it may have been, with refineries and pipelines and all that sort of thing. They put up money to do it. Now the trick is to use other people’s money, basically. And you know you can’t blame human beings for behaving like humans, but you should be aware of what their motivations are. Capitalism in the United States has succeeded like nothing you’ve ever seen. It’s a combination of this magnificent cathedral, which has produced an economy like nothing the world’s ever seen. And then it’s got this massive casino attached.

沃伦·巴菲特所以一边是大教堂,一边是赌场。赌场里人人开心,大笔钞票转手,各种热闹。但你必须确保大教堂也能分到一杯羹,因为诱惑太大。现在这种诱惑格外强烈,人们都想往赌场跑,那边有人说,我们有魔法盒子、各种神奇的东西,能给你带来天大的好处。赌场是大家最开心的地方,是承诺最多的地方,也是那些兜售者赚最多钱的地方。

WARREN BUFFETTSo you got the cathedral and the casino, and then the casino, everybody’s having a good time, and there’s lots of money changing hands and everything. You’ve got to make sure the cathedral gets fed, too, because of the temptation. And the temptation is very high now to go over to the casino where people say, you know, we’ve got magic boxes and all kinds of things that will do wonderful things for you. That’s where people are happiest. That’s where you get the most promised to you. That’s where the most money is for the people who are pushing things.

沃伦·巴菲特资本、赌场与殿堂之间的平衡至关重要。美国在接下来 100 年里必须确保,殿堂不会被赌场压倒,因为人们确实很喜欢去赌场。赌场有趣得多——你一赢,他们就摇铃铛、端酒水,各种花样都来,目的就是让钱从你口袋流进他们口袋。而殿堂呢,是在为三亿多美国人设计能持续产出商品和服务的东西,这在历史上从未有过。

WARREN BUFFETTThe balance between the capital and the casino and the cathedral is very important that the United States in the next 100 years make sure that the cathedral is not overtaken by the casino, because people really like to go to casinos. And it’s just so much more fun. They bring bells, and when you win, they bring you drinks and everything else, and it’s designed to move money from one pocket to another. In the cathedrals, they are basically designing things that will be producing goods and services for 300 and some million people, like it’s never been done before in history.

沃伦·巴菲特这是我们琢磨出来的一个挺有意思的系统,但它确实管用。它分配奖励的方式,看起来相当随心所欲。我的意思是,那种认为人这辈子得到的就是他应得的说法,很难让人信服。可你要跟这说法较真,又发现任何别的系统似乎总也不如它好使;答案是,我们还没找到更好的。所以,这事就留给下一代吧,让他们用通灵板或者别的什么法子,把答案告诉我。好,二号提问站。

WARREN BUFFETTThat’s an interesting system we developed, but it works. It dispenses rewards in what seems like a terribly capricious manner. I mean, the idea that people get what they deserve in life, and it’s hard to make that argument. But if you argue with that, any other system always seems to work better; the answer is we haven’t found one. So we’ll leave it to the next generation to send me the answer by Ouija board or whatever. OK. Station 2.

早期影响

Early influence

帕特里克·内斯特您好,我叫帕特里克·内斯特,今年 13 岁,来自佛罗里达州坦帕市。我和 15 岁的哥哥约翰以及爸爸一起来到这里。感谢您举办这次股东大会。这是我第一次参加股东会。我的问题是,哪一门高中课程或活动,对您成长为有史以来最伟大的投资者产生了影响?

PATRICK NESTERHi, my name is Patrick Nester. I am 13 years old and from Tampa, FL. I’m here with my brother John, who’s 15, and my dad. Thank you for hosting this meeting. This is my first ever shareholder meeting. My question is what high school class or activity helped influence you to who you are today as the greatest investor of all time?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,这是个好问题。你生命中遇到的老师会对你产生极大的影响,很多是那些正式的学校老师,但也有一些是非正式的。我从某些雇主身上学到了非常多。你确实希望从每个人身上都能学到东西,你会发现他们心怀善意,而且经验丰富。我在这方面运气很好,但要说我特别幸运的地方,是我父亲从事投资行业,所以我周六会去他办公室,等他一起吃午饭,我就读他那儿没人碰过的书。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, that’s a good question. The teachers you get in your life have an incredible impression on you, and a lot of them are the formal teachers you have, but some are informal teachers too. I mean, I’ve learned from certain employers so much. You really hope you’re learning from everybody, and you find that it was well-intentioned and there’s had a lot of experience. I had a lot of good luck in that, but I would say that where I was really lucky was my dad was in the investment business, so I would go down on Saturday and I’d wait for him to go to lunch with and I’d read the books that were around there, that nobody else have ever read.

沃伦·巴菲特它们跟我说话,数字跟我说话,但我始终找不到那种感觉。后来我发现了公共图书馆,我把奥马哈哈尼街 19 号公共图书馆里所有关于投资的书都读了一遍,真的是一本不落。学习这些事让我很开心。跟查理不同,如果查理去读电学方面的书,他会想把托马斯·爱迪生知道的一切都弄明白,甚至还要更多,而且会用同样的思维方式去理解每一样东西是怎么运作的。我不在乎它怎么运作,我只在乎它管不管用——这是我的局限。我这是在坦白,不是炫耀。

WARREN BUFFETTAnd they just talk to me, numbers talk to me, and I could never get my feel of them, and then I discovered the public library and I read every book there was on investments, literally, in the Omaha Public Library on 19th at Harney. I enjoyed learning about that. Unlike Charlie֫, if Charlie was reading about electricity, he would want to know everything that Thomas Edison knew and more and that goes with the same thought process and understand how everything worked. I didn’t care how it worked; I just cared whether it worked, and that’s a limitation. I’m confessing here. I’m not bragging.

沃伦·巴菲特就像查理说的,人们总爱问,“如果你只能跟一个人共进午餐,活的死的都行,你会选谁?”查理的回答是,“我已经跟所有这些人吃过饭了——因为我读完了他们所有的书。”他还真就这么干。我觉得,保持好奇心,并且找到那些能激发你的导师,非常管用。我在高中和大学就遇到过几位这样的老师。其实,我上过三所不同的大学。我在华盛顿读的高中,每到一个地方,我都能找到两三个相当杰出的人,然后我就把时间花在他们身上,对其他课程不怎么上心。我很早就找到了适合自己的东西,这是我的运气。

WARREN BUFFETTAs Charlie would say, people would always ask, “If you could only have lunch with one person, living or dead, who would it be?” And Charlie said, “I’ve already had lunch with all of them because I’ve read all their books.” And he really did it. I think having curiosity and actually finding sympathetic teachers is very useful. I ran into a couple of teachers that both in high school and college. In fact, I would say that I went to three different universities. I went to high school in Washington, and at each place I found about two or three really outstanding people, and I just spent my time with them and didn’t pay much attention to the other classes. I was lucky to find something that really fit me very early on.

沃伦·巴菲特如果我的志向是当个口技演员,或者别的什么鬼行当,结果也成不了。你知道,就算我花无数个小时去练,练到头也不过是个蹩脚货。所以我不信那套。有本书说花一万小时啥的就能成。我花一万小时练踢踏舞,你看了准得吐。

WARREN BUFFETTIf my ambition had been to become a ventriloquist or, you know, whatever the hell it might have been and it wouldn’t work. You know, even I just spent hours and hours and hours, and I would have been any good when I got through. So I don’t believe that. I think there was a book that talked about spending 10,000 hours as something. I could spend 10,000 hours tap dancing, and you’ll throw up if you watch me.

沃伦·巴菲特如果我花 10 个小时读本·格雷厄姆,读完以后我一定会变得聪明得多。人的脑子确实、确实差别很大。我看那些桥牌高手,也看那些顶尖外科医生。我的意思是,人的天赋真的、真的、真的千差万别。我记得人脑有 880 亿个细胞,我不敢说自己每个细胞都在闪闪发光。但你跟其他任何人都不一样。我父亲总跟我说,你明白自己是与众不同的,那未必是好事,但你要找到自己的路。

WARREN BUFFETTIf I spend 10 hours reading Ben Graham. I would be damn smarter when I got through. So minds are really, really different. I watch great bridge players, and I watch great physicians. I mean, people really, really, really have different talents. I think you’re supposed to have 88 billion cells in your brain. I’m not sure that all of mine are flashing bright lights. But you are different from anybody else. My dad always used to tell me that you know you’re something different, it may not be good, but you find your own path.

沃伦·巴菲特在学校里,你会发现有人愿意跟你交流。通常来说,老师们都这样。他们很乐意看到一个年轻学生真心对这门课感兴趣,愿意花额外的时间陪你聊。他们会做各种各样的事,我就遇到过这种情况。在哥伦比亚大学,格雷厄姆和多德基本把我当儿子一样看待——因为我确实对他们讲的东西很感兴趣,他们也觉得这挺有意思的。我那时简直太投入了。所以,去看看什么最能吸引你。我不会试图去做别人。你在学校里会碰到一些很出色的老师。

WARREN BUFFETTYou will find the people in school who want to talk to you. People who teach, in general. They love having a young student who’s actually really interested in the subject, and they’ll spend extra time with you. They’ll do all kinds of things, and I ran into that. And Graham and Dodd at the Columbia, well, they’ve treated me like a son, basically, but I was interested in what they’re saying, and they found it kind of entertaining. I was so interested. So look around at what really fascinates you. I wouldn’t try and be somebody else. You’ll find the teachers at a school, and you’ll find some outstanding people who are teachers.

沃伦·巴菲特至少有 10 个人对我的人生产生了巨大影响,每一个都是正面的,你知道,因为我在某种意义上是被选中的人,而且不少人确实喜欢帮助年轻人。我在上学时就有这种体会。可能表现得有点迷茫会有点帮助。你需要帮助,但我在学校的经历是好的,确实非常好,但我更把它归功于个人,而非机构。好了,我说的已经比我知道的还多了。接下来轮到贝基了,该你提问了。

WARREN BUFFETTAt least 10 people would have had huge impacts on my life, and every one of those positive, you know, because I got selected in the sense, and a number of people really like helping younger people. I’ve found that in school. And probably it helps to look a little bit lost at all. You need help, but I was at my school experiences, we’re good, but really very good, but I attribute it much more to the individual, to the institutions. OK, I’ve already told you more than I know. So we’re going to Becky, you’re next.

贝基·奎克这个问题来自俄勒冈州波特兰市的斯科特·威廉姆斯。他问:“您认为 DOGE 对美国的长期健康而言,净收益是正面还是负面?”

BECKY QUICKThis question comes from Scott Williams in Portland, OR. He said, “Do you think the net benefit of DOGE will be positive or negative for the long-term health of the United States?”

沃伦·巴菲特那你为什么不给我一个难点的?我觉得官僚主义这东西,即便在我们的资本主义体系和大型企业里,也极为普遍、极具传染性。绝大多数大公司,怎么看都还能管得更好。我敢说伯克希尔在很多方面也一样。而政府是官僚主义的极致——它压根没有什么制约机制。这也是为什么,货币的未来会让人有些担心,因为他们能印钞票。要是你选出来的人靠许诺各种好处上位——不是说他们承诺的那些事就不真诚——可没有哪个政客会跟选民说,“我觉得你真有口臭,麻烦你离我远点。”这种事绝不会发生。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, why don’t you give me a hard one? I think that bureaucracy is something that is amazingly prevalent and contagious, even in our capitalist system and the big corporations. Overwhelmingly, most of them look like they could be run better. I’m sure Berkshire does in many respects. And the government is the ultimate. So it really doesn’t have any checks on it. That’s why it scares you to some extent about what the future of the currency will be, because they can print currency and if you have people that get elected by promising people things and that doesn’t mean that they aren’t sincere about all kinds of items, but there’s no politician that says to anybody that, “I really think you have bad breath and if you don’t mind would just step over that away from me.” It just doesn’t happen.

沃伦·巴菲特我认为政府控制收入和开支的问题,是一个永远无法完全解决的难题,而且确实严重地拖垮了许多文明。我不认为我们对此能幸免,我们也曾逼近过这种困境。但如果你告诉我,在民主制度下要怎么去切实做出改变,你知道,我们现在正运行在不可持续的财政赤字下。在很长很长的时间里,我们不知道那意味着两年还是二十年,因为从来没有一个国家像美国这样,但你知道,“如果一件事不能永远持续下去,它就会结束。”这句话出自经济学家赫伯特·斯坦。

WARREN BUFFETTI think the problem of how you control revenue and expenses in government is the one that is never fully solved and has really hurt dramatically many civilizations. I don’t think we’re immune to it, and we’ve come close to it. But if you tell me how in the democracy you go in and really change things, you know, we’re operating at a fiscal deficit now that is unsustainable. Over a very long period of time, we don’t know whether that means two years or 20 years because there’s never been a country like the United States, but you know that, “If something can’t go on forever, it will end.” The quote is from Herbert Stein, a famous economist.

沃伦·巴菲特我们正在做一件不可持续的事,而且这件事到一定程度就会失控。我是说,本质上,你干脆就放弃了。保罗·沃尔克,你知道,他阻止了这种事情在美国发生。但我们有好几次都差点走到那一步。美国仍然有过相当严重的通胀,不过至今还没彻底失控,但这种事你绝不想去试,因为它会自我强化。

WARREN BUFFETTWe are doing something that is unsustainable, and it has the aspect that it becomes uncontrollable to a certain point. I mean, essentially, you just give up on it. And Paul Volcker, you know, kept that from happening in the United States. But we came close multiple times. We still had very substantial inflation in the United States, but it’s never run away yet, and that’s not something you want to try and experiment with because it feeds on itself.

沃伦·巴菲特所以说,我可不想接下修正美国收支问题的活儿——现在大概有 7% 的缺口,而 3% 左右还可持续,离这个数越远,不可控的部分就越多。我觉得这活儿我不想干,但确实是该有人干,而国会似乎干不好。

WARREN BUFFETTSo I wouldn’t want the job of trying to correct what’s going on in revenue and the expenditures of the United States, with roughly a 7% gap when probably a 3% gap is sustainable and then the further away you get from that, the more you get to where the uncontrollable begins and I think that it’s a job I don’t want, but it’s a job I think should be done and Congress does not seem good at doing it.

沃伦·巴菲特作为一个国家,我们一直都有不少问题,但这个问题是我们自己招来的。我们拥有全世界前所未有的收入流、资本生产机器和人才制造工厂。如果你想找个办法搞砸它,那就得从货币下手。这种事在很多地方都发生过。理论上,你应该让那些搞砸的人承受巨大的代价。确实有代价,也有好处。这是世界历史上最成功公司面临的问题。眼下,我们还有一点回旋余地去解决。说到这儿,我闭嘴,进入第三站。

WARREN BUFFETTWe’ve got a lot of problems always as a country, but this is one we bring on ourselves. We have a revenue stream, a capital-producing stream, a brains-producing machine like the world has never seen. And if you picked a way to screw it up, it would involve the currency. That’s happened a lot of places. In theory, you would make it so there was a substantial downside for anybody that screw things up. There is a downside, there’s upside. It’s the problem of the most successful company in the history of the world. At this point, we have a little room to go and solve. With that, I’ll shut up and go on to Station 3.

公平的资本主义

A fair capitalism

萨莎您好,巴菲特先生。我叫萨莎,来自德国。首先,我想谢谢您,因为您对我以及我所爱之人的生活产生了极大的影响,这是无法用金钱衡量的。巴菲特先生,试想现在是 1776 年。您正与本杰明·富兰克林并肩而坐,协助塑造一个新国家的根基。您会倡导哪些核心经济原则,去构建一个公平、强韧、由机会驱动的资本主义社会,一个能为后世子孙带来长期繁荣的社会?

SASHAHello, Mr. Buffett. My name is Sasha from Germany. And first of all, I want to thank you because you made such a great impact on my life and the lives of the people I love, and that’s priceless. Mr. Buffett, imagine it’s 1776. And you’re sitting alongside Benjamin Franklin, helping to shape the foundation of a new nation. What core economic principles would you advocate for building a fair, resilient and opportunity-driven capitalism society, one that supports long-term prosperity for future generations?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,这是个好问题,不过我很可能会对本·富兰克林说,您只管继续思考,别跟我商量,因为您想出的主意肯定比我高明。他这个人真是太了不起了。我的意思是,他或许是最后一位能通晓国内各领域事务的人了。他发明了形形色色的东西,顺带一说——我们刚才聊到了复利的威力之类的话题——他立过一份遗嘱,捐了一笔钱给费城,另一笔给波士顿,以此作为一个跨越两百年的示范。你想想,复利的威力,还有他在各方面远超时代的那种见识,要是当时我和他同在那棵树下,我最明智的做法就是别挡他的路,让他继续思考下去。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, that’s a good question, but I would probably say to Ben Franklin, you just keep thinking and don’t talk to me because you’ll come up with some better ideas than I will. He was an incredibly remarkable person. I mean, he’s almost probably the last person to have a grasp of every aspect of activity in the country. He invented all kinds of things, and he incidentally—We were talking about the power of compound and that sort of thing–he left a will that left some money to Philadelphia and another sum to Boston that would serve as an example for a couple of hundred years. You know the power of compounding and all kinds of things that he was so far ahead of his time that the best thing I could do if I were under that tree with him was to get out of his way and let him keep thinking.

沃伦·巴菲特他预见到了成功可能给社会带来的问题,还有其他各类问题,我是说,各个领域里那些更直接的问题,但也包括如何对待这 80 亿人口的问题,因为我们没办法把自己与世界其他地区割裂开来。我们可以为世界其他地区做个榜样,而我认为,既然我们在这个国家拥有了如此多的福分,并且我们确实拥有一个相当不错的制度,我们就理应这样做。

WARREN BUFFETTHe saw the problems that success could bring to a society as well as other problems, I mean, more immediate problems in all kinds of fields, but the problems of how to take 8 billion people, because there’s no way we can separate ourselves from the rest of the world. We can be an example for the rest of the world, and I think it behooves us since we have had all this good fortune in this country, and we do have a pretty good system.

沃伦·巴菲特我不认为靠对全世界说教该如何行事,能有什么好结果。不应该由你去告诉别人他们该怎样度过一生。我觉得,就在几百年前,掌管世界的还是完全不同的另一批国家,现在你却开始去给他们提建议了,这难免会招来一定程度的反感。在我看来,在沟通和说服的过程中,对一群你刚刚赢了比赛的人说教,着实是个错误。

WARREN BUFFETTI don’t think you get very far by lecturing the world on how. You were the one who should tell them what they should do with our lives. I think you get a certain amount of resentment when just a few hundred years ago, a whole different group of countries were running the world and now you start giving them advice, and I think it’s a real mistake in communication and persuasion to lecture a bunch of people where you just won the game.

沃伦·巴菲特我会建议本想一想怎样赢得比赛,同时保持一定程度的谦卑。我还会告诉他,试着去设计一个不会发明出太多足以毁灭地球的东西的制度。你知道的,那些东西一旦问世,就再也无法控制了。我们发展原子弹是没有其他选择,但有能力制造它的国家从一个变成八个,又变成九个,而且伊朗可能很快也会加入——我的意思是,这是一个错误。这个社会根本承受不起犯这样的错误,我是说,这等于把原本只需处理一个变量的问题,变成了要处理九个变量的难题。

WARREN BUFFETTI would advise Ben to figure out how to win the game and keep a certain amount of humility at the same time. And I would tell him to try and design a system that doesn’t invent too many things that can destroy the planet. You know, they become uncontrollable once you get them out there. There was no alternative to us developing the atom bomb, but the expansion of the number of people who have the ability from one to eight, and nine, probably pretty soon, with Iran. I mean, that’s a mistake. This society just could not afford to make, I mean, solve the problem in nine variables instead of simply one.

沃伦·巴菲特这完全可以理解。我父亲在国会任职时,原子弹第一次投入使用,令人称奇的是,萨姆·雷伯恩居然能一直瞒着众议院,因为理论上所有拨款都要经过他们审批,而那里的 435 名议员完全不知道,他们批的那些钱是给洛斯阿拉莫斯的,也不知道芝加哥那边在做什么,或者田纳西在做什么。

WARREN BUFFETTNow it’s totally understandable. My dad was in Congress when the atom bomb was first used, it’s amazing how Sam Rayburn kept the House of Representatives uninformed because they are supposed to appropriate all the money and 435 congressmen there and they had no idea they were probating money for Los Alamos or what was going on in Chicago or what was going on in Tennessee.

沃伦·巴菲特但不管怎样,我们如今的社会确实远超本·富兰克林的梦想。它正朝着正确的方向前进。为了解决问题,我们曾像当年做出诸如“人人生而平等”等广泛宣示一样,去采取过某些行动。但总的来说,我们是在朝着正确的方向前进,然而我们始终面临着难题。我不知道本·富兰克林会如何处理这样一个问题:一旦大规模杀伤性武器落入很多人手中,一旦你从根本上审视这个世界,并将它视为一个有人赢、有人输的局,你该怎么办。

WARREN BUFFETTBut anyway, we do have a society that is far beyond anything that Ben Franklin dreamed of. It’s moving in the right direction. Towards solving some problems the way we made the kind of broad declarations about all men being created equal, etc. Then we did some of the things we did, but generally speaking, we moved in the right direction, but we faced problems. I don’t know how Ben Franklin would attack the problem of what you do once you get weapons of mass destruction in many hands, and when you essentially look at the world and something where there are winners and losers.

沃伦·巴菲特而且赢家还羞辱输家,干尽各种事。在场各位要年轻得多,这些问题就留给你们去想答案了,不过这依然是人世间最美好的事。你所能梦想到的一切,都比不上美国所发生的一切。所以,这里是古往今来最美好的地方、最美好的时代。想想几百年前,有人硬生生拔掉你几颗牙,再往你喉咙里灌威士忌。我是说,那时候不过是勉强糊口,尤其是在中西部这里,你试想一下,每年都得等着密苏里河封冻,才能知道你的马车能不能过河,车后头说不定还躺着一位孕妇。

WARREN BUFFETTAnd that the winners humiliate the losers and do all kinds of things. I’ll let the people are a lot younger here. I’ll let them figure out the answers on that, but it’s still the most wonderful. There’s never been anything you could dream of like what happened in the United States. So it’s the best place and the best time to be alive by miles in the street. Just think of a couple of hundred years ago, and somebody yanking out a few of your teeth and pouring whiskey down you. I mean, it’s subsistence and particularly in this Midwest, just imagine waiting till the Missouri froze over every year just to see whether you get your wagon across, and maybe they have a pregnant woman in the back.

沃伦·巴菲特我这一生亲眼见证的这些积极变化,本身就相当惊人。那么问题来了,要如何才能守住它们?如何才能让它们变得更好?不过,我确实认为,这一切的根基在于拥有一种不会贬值的货币。想想货币贬值会给社会稳定带来什么影响——所有信任自己政府的人会吃尽苦头,而所有能找到门道从中渔利的人则会变富或更富。我认为你不会希望一个社会以这种方式运转。总之就这样吧。我想想,刚才那是第 3 节。接下来该轮到贝基了,对吧?

WARREN BUFFETTIt’s just amazing what has happened of a positive nature during my lifetime. And then the question, how do you keep it in? How do you improve it? I do think that the fundamentals of it all, though, are having a currency that does not get debased. What that does to the stability of a society where all the people that trust their government get screwed and all the people that figure out ways to profit from it become rich or richer. I don’t think you want a society that operates in that manner. So anyway. Let’s see, that was Section 3. So we’re going to Becky, right?

格雷格·阿贝尔管理运营子公司的方式

Greg Abel’s approach to managing the operating subsidiaries

贝基·奎克格雷格,这个问题是问你的。它来自一位名叫杰伊·米尔罗伊的股东,他写道:“巴菲特先生对运营子公司采取不插手的放权式管理。您会如何描述自己的管理方式?”

BECKY QUICKGreg, this question is for you. It comes from a shareholder named Jay Milroy, who writes, “Mr. Buffett has a hands-off approach to managing the operating subsidiaries. How would you describe your approach?”

沃伦·巴菲特比他更好。(注:此处沃伦在替格雷格幽默抢答,意为“他会比我做得更好”)

WARREN BUFFETTBetter.

格雷格·阿贝尔呃,我们的经理们都在那边。我想说,回溯到 2018 年,能担任这个角色对我来说是一大幸事,因为首先我需要去学习大量业务,而毫无疑问,沃伦在当初买入这些业务时,已经对它们有概略的了解。我则是必须和每一位经理深入接触,他们都毫无保留地分享自己的商业模式、经营思路,以及对风险与机遇所在的见解,这感觉特别好。

GREG ABELWell, we’ve got our managers over there and I would say going back to 2018, it’s been very fortunate being this role because one I had to learn a lot of the businesses and there’s no question as Warren bought the businesses, he had that general knowledge. I absolutely had to engage with each of them, and they’ve been great in sharing their business models, their approach, and their thoughts around where the risks and opportunities are.

格雷格·阿贝尔而我觉得,在经历这个学习过程时,我无疑会有疑问,也会有与他们深入探讨的愿望。沃伦总说,处理事务时,保持好奇心很重要。那就是我的风格,对他们的业务、他们的框架提出疑问和看法。同时,他们都拥有出色的业务,并实行高度自主经营,这一点始终不变。但如果我看到了某些机会,或许是曾在另一业务领域见过,或是在他们所在行业里发现了某个机会,我们就会坐下来讨论,看看它值不值得我们去争取,或者我们对相关风险的应对是否得当。

GREG ABELAnd I think as we went through that, there’s no question I had questions and wanted to engage with them. And Warren talks about the curiosity being important as you go through things. That would be my style, but have questions and comments around their business, their frameworks. At the same time, they have great businesses, and they run them very autonomously and that remains in place. But if there’s opportunities to see where maybe seen something in another business or an opportunity, I may see in their industry, we’re going to discuss it and see if that’s something we should pursue or are we’re properly addressing the risk.

格雷格·阿贝尔我发现,我们所有的经理人都极为投入,并且很渴望进行这类对话。我得说,这恰好反映了我的工作方式。我还要说的是,再重申一遍,我们的经理人高度自主,他们经营着自己的业务,他们对业务的了解远胜于我将来能达到的程度。但是,如果我发现了一个机会,觉得值得他们花时间去和另一位经理人交流,我就会促成这件事。比如说 GEICO,他们刚经历了一场技术转型,但需要进行这类思考的,可不只是他们自己。我们要确保对的人正在沟通,一起琢磨如何才能从彼此过往的经验中获益。所以,我的方式可以说更主动些,但我希望是以一种非常积极的方式,而且我们拥有一支卓越非凡的团队。因此,在我经历那段时期的过程中,这套做法运转得极为成功。

GREG ABELI found all our managers to be absolutely engaging on that and want to have those dialogues. And I’d say that’s a reflection of my approach. I’d also say that when you think of our managers, again, very autonomous, they run their businesses, they know it better than I ever will. But if I see an opportunity that it’s well worth their time to talk to another one of our managers. If it’s GEICO, and they’ve gone through a technology transformation. They’re not by themselves that need to be thinking that way. We want to make sure the right folks are talking and figuring out how we can benefit from the prior experiences. So I would say, more active, but hopefully in a very positive way, and we got an exceptional group. So it’s worked out exceptionally well as I’ve gone through that period of time.

沃伦·巴菲特格雷格这样做的效果确实比我那时好得多,因为我不想像他那么下功夫,而且我也能混得过去,因为我们做的是一门基础扎实的好生意,非常不错的生意,并且你们也炒不了我,这既得益于我的持股,也得益于我们确实会做得挺好的事实。但一件事能做得“挺好”,并不意味不能做得“更好”。而格雷格在很多事情上都能做得更好。许多人需要有人管理,在管理上也需要帮助。有些人则不需要。对那样的,放手就行。

WARREN BUFFETTIt’s working way better with Greg than with me because I just didn’t want to work as hard as he worked and I could get away with it because we’ve got a basically good business, very good business and I wasn’t in danger of you firing me by virtue of both ownership and the fact that we would do pretty well. But the fact that you can do pretty well doesn’t mean you couldn’t do better. And Greg can do better at many things. Many people want to be managed, need help in being managed. Some don’t. Some you just leave alone.

沃伦·巴菲特我们有些经理人,你要是开始给他们下指令,那简直是疯了——他们会直接辞职。我不怪他们,因为我自己就是这号人。但很多人确实欢迎别人给方向、给帮助,尤其是当这些建议来自像格雷格这样的人——他自己就身体力行,而不是高高在上地说“你就该这么干”,自己却另搞一套。一个经理人,要求下属做到的自己却做不到——时间长了,根本行不通。

WARREN BUFFETTWe’ve had managers it would have been crazy to start giving instructions to because they just quit. And I wouldn’t blame them because I’d be the same type myself. But a lot of people really do welcome direction and help, particularly when they’re getting it from somebody like Greg that really lives the life himself and doesn’t just come down from on high and say, “Here’s what you do”, while I do something else. A manager who behaves differently than what he’s asking the people beneath them to behave—it just doesn’t work over time.

沃伦·巴菲特人们希望仰慕他们钦佩的经理人,如果这些人说一套做一套,他们就不会钦佩他们。一个组织向坏的方向滑落比向好的方向提升更容易。我是说,如果老板行为不端,就会导致所有人行为不端。这确实有传染性。在上层管理人员中,这种传染没那么快,但如果经理为了给自己捞好处做些小动作,很快——假设你经营一家零售店——很快,所有员工都会告诉他们的朋友他们能拿到折扣。如果他们的朋友想要什么,他们就把东西记在自己账上,然后享受折扣。一旦你开始向下滑坡,那真是极具传染性,而且很难重建,所以你确实需要高层行为端正、不为自己谋私利的人。我们有很多经理人拼了命地避免做那种事,也有一小部分拼命往前钻。如果你接触的公司足够多,你会看到各种各样的行为表现,格雷格对此会采取行动,而我在这方面通常比较松懈,但他做得比我好得多。好了。4 号位。

WARREN BUFFETTPeople want a manager that they admire, and they’re not going to admire them if those people profess to behave in one manner and behave in another manner. It’s easier for an organization to see its quality move downward than it upward. I mean, if the boss behaves badly, it causes everybody to behave badly. I mean, that is really catching. It’s not as catching on the way in upper management, but if the manager is doing a little things to grease his own situation, pretty soon— Let’s say you’re running a retail establishment—pretty soon, all the employees are telling their friends that they get a discount. If their friend wants something, they’ll put it on their account and then get the discount. Once you start deviating downward, it is really contagious and it’s hard to rebuild, so you really need someone who behaves well on top and is not playing games for their own benefit. And we get a lot of managers that bend over backwards not to do that sort of thing, and then we get a few that bend over forwards. If you get enough companies, you’re going to get a lot of forms of behaviour, and Greg does something about it, and I’ve generally been lax in doing something about it, but he’s done a way better job with that than I have. OK. Station 4.

煤炭淘汰

Coal phase out

堪萨斯·洛迈尔你好,巴菲特先生和阿贝尔先生。我叫堪萨斯·洛迈尔,是埃尔克霍恩南高中的高二学生,在奥马哈出生长大。我的问题问格雷格·阿贝尔。伯克希尔·哈撒韦是美国第二大公用事业供应商,而 2025 年路透社的一项调查发现,它的燃煤机组是全美最脏的。目前没有具体的逐步淘汰煤炭、全面转向可再生能源的计划。我今年 17 岁,考虑到这一点,对于像我这样、会因为伯克希尔这样的公司而承受气候变化后果的年轻人,你有什么话要说?

KANSAS LOMIREHello, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Abel. My name is Kansas Lomire. I am a junior at Elkhorn South High School and was born and raised in Omaha. My question is directed to Greg Abel. Berkshire Hathaway is the second-largest utility provider in the United States, and a 2025 Reuters investigation found that its coal fleet is the dirtiest in the nation. There are currently no concrete plans to phase out coal and fully transition to renewable energy. I’m 17 years old, considering that, what do you have to say to young people like me who will live with the consequences of climate change due to companies like Berkshire?

格雷格·阿贝尔感谢你的提问和评论,因为很重要的一点是,要理解伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司,也要理解它们的运作方式,或许可以先拿爱荷华州举个例子——因为报告里也提到了这个州。我想早先最重要的事情之一,就是收购我们的能源公司。回顾一下,我们收购中美洲能源是在 1999 年,伯克希尔在 2000 年完成了对中美洲能源的收购。

GREG ABELThank you for both your question and your comments because it is important to understand, say, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, but also how they operate and maybe using Iowa, at least, as a starting example, because I think that was one of the States cited in the report. One of the important things that I’d say early in is acquiring our energy companies, and I go back to when we acquired MidAmerican, we acquired it in 1999, Berkshire purchased MidAmerican in 2000.

格雷格·阿贝尔但有一件事让我和我们的团队看得非常清楚:我们在公用事业领域所做的工作,实际上是由两个因素驱动的。第一,我们绝对必须满足联邦法律规定的各项要求;但更重要的是,我们必须认识到,我们是在这些州内落实公共政策。当我回到爱荷华州时,这引发了一场有趣的对话——而那份报告再次指出,这是一个重大问题。时间回到 2000 年代初,那是爱荷华州历史上第一次,我们作为一家公用事业公司,将面临电力短缺的局面。

GREG ABELBut one thing that became very clear to me and our teams was that what we do within our utilities is really driven on two fronts. One, we absolutely have to meet the requirements in the law that’s laid out federally, but most importantly, we had to recognise that we implement public policy across these states. And that was an interesting conversation when I went back to Iowa, and again, the report cited that as a significant problem. It was early in the 2000s when, for the first time in Iowa, we were going to as a utility, be short of power.

格雷格·阿贝尔所以我们没有能源,于是我们与时任州长进行了深入讨论,坐下来诚恳地说:“你们希望中美能源往哪个方向发展?作为一州,你们想要什么样的资源?”当时,我们州主要依赖煤炭发电,我们清楚认识到——这从根本上看,我个人认为——这是一项风险,但我们确实需要与州里就未来如何应对进行对话。

GREG ABELSo we didn’t have the energy, and we entered into a significant discussion with our governor at the time, and really sat down and said, “Where do you want us to go as MidAmerican? And what resources do you want as a state?” At that time, we were predominantly a coal-based state, and we recognised that obviously and fundamentally, we personally viewed it as a risk, but we needed to have that conversation with our state as to how we would manage that going forward.

格雷格·阿贝尔有意思的是,早在 2000 年代初期,我们跟州里的领导层有过那番对话,当时就很明确地决定——我们要长期做多电力,也就是说不能对客户做空。我们讨论了资源类型,我记得有一次非常清晰的交谈,大家希望在各种能源之间保持平衡,而当时主要就是煤和天然气。

GREG ABELThe interesting thing was that as we had that conversation in the early 2000s, again with the leadership of our state, it was clearly decided we wanted to continue to be long power, i.e. not be short for our customers. We discussed the type of resource, and I remember a very clear conversation around we wanted to stay balanced across a variety of energy sources, and at that time, it was really coal and natural gas.

格雷格·阿贝尔当时,我们决定在爱荷华州建设美国最大的风力发电项目。所以我们着手建设三个能源项目:一个燃煤电厂、一个燃气电厂,以及中美能源旗下的第一个风电项目。同样,这完全符合该州的意愿,但我们也为日后奠定了一些重要基础——我们开始明确可再生能源、无碳资源的重要性,但前提是必须与州政府的规划保持一致。自那以来,我们已在爱荷华州投入 160 亿美元用于可再生能源相关项目。

GREG ABELAnd at that time, we made the decision to build the largest wind project in the US, in Iowa. So we undertook an effort to build three resources: a coal plant, a gas plant, and a what was the first wind project we owned in MidAmerican. And again, it was very consistent with what the state wanted, but we also laid some important groundwork there because we started to define the importance of renewable energy, non-carbon resources, but it has to be consistent with what the state wanted and we’ve gone on over since that period of time to deploy $16 billion into Iowa associated with renewable energy.

格雷格·阿贝尔再说一遍,这与我们州希望我们做的事情非常一致,也就是底层政策本身。我们没有权力自行决定并花掉 160 亿美元。这件事是跟我们的州长、立法者和监管机构共同推进的,与此同时,我们已经有机会淘汰了 10 座燃煤机组中的 5 座。现在,正如报告所强调的,我理解人们希望剩下的那 5 座燃煤机组也能在此时就淘汰掉。但想想看,我们投入了 160 亿美元去淘汰 5 座机组,这对我们的客户来说已经是一个非常好的结果了。我们一直能够维持较低的费率,这在全国都是最低水平之一。所以,整个过程效率很高,但现实是,我们仍然需要那 5 座燃煤机组来维持系统稳定。我们不能让西班牙和葡萄牙的情况重演。

<<<END P 10>>>

GREG ABELAgain, very consistent with what our state wanted us to do, i.e. the underlying policy. We don’t get to make that decision and spend 16 billion. It’s done in conjunction with our governors, legislators, and regulators, and at the same time, we’ve had the opportunity to retire five of the 10 coal units. Now, as the report highlighted, I understand people would like those other five coal units retired at this time. But to think we deployed 16 billion to retire five, and it’s a very good outcome for our customers. We’ve been able to maintain our rates, which are some of the lowest in the country. So it’s been done very efficiently, but the reality is we still need those five coal units to keep the system stable. We cannot have a Spain-Portugal situation.

格雷格·阿贝尔所以我们非常尊重各方意见。我们非常尊重这个流程,并将继续与各州合作,确定他们希望走哪条路。我们努力确保取得良好、平衡的结果,因为我们理解其他各方诉求所带来的挑战。所以我认为你会继续看到我们的公用事业公司实施符合利益相关方或客户需求的政策,同时始终尊重任何联邦标准的要求。谢谢你的评论。

GREG ABELSo we absolutely respect the input. We absolutely respect the process, and we’ll continue to work with each of our states to identify the path they would like to chart. And we work hard to ensure there are good, balanced outcomes because we recognize the challenges associated with other folks’ desires. So I think you’ll continue to see our utilities implement policy consistent with the needs of their stakeholders or customers, and at the same time, always respecting what’s required by any of the federal standards. So, thank you for your comments.

美国医疗保险改革

US health insurance reform

沃伦·巴菲特好,第 31 个。我看看。贝基?

WARREN BUFFETTOK, 31. Let’s see. Becky?

贝基·奎克这个问题来自比利·德罗斯。他写道:“巴菲特先生,作为一名来自纽约州的护士,多年来我一直在努力为自己争取一份好的健康保险,即便我同时在前线挽救生命。在纽约,获取保险意味着要应付一个令人困惑的州立系统,感觉就像它生来就是要让人束手无策。我很好奇,您与摩根大通和亚马逊的医疗健康合作项目最终为何会结束?鉴于您对价值与长期思维的坚持,您是否曾考虑过重新审视美国的健康保险改革?”

BECKY QUICKThis question comes from Billy de Ross. He writes, “Mr. Buffett, as a nurse from New York State, I’ve spent years struggling to secure good health insurance for myself, even while working on the front lines to save lives. In New York, accessing insurance means navigating a confusing state-run system that feels like it’s designed to overwhelm. I’m curious what ultimately led to the end of your healthcare venture with JP Morgan and Amazon, and given your commitment to value and long-term thinking, would you ever consider taking another look at health insurance reform in the US?”

沃伦·巴菲特我们花在医疗上的钱接近——具体数字很难说清——接近 GDP 的 20%。要是回到 1960 年,有好几个国家在医疗上的支出都各占 5% 左右,后来差距就开始急剧拉大。但数学上有个事实没变:这个等式里总共就只有 100 个百分点。所以我们跟摩根大通和亚马逊一起尝试了个实验。我们三个人都不觉得自己知道答案,但我们认为——拿我来说,我用了个说法,称这是经济上的寄生虫——这条寄生虫在全国各地都活得好好的。医院喜欢它。医院里有人脉广的人跟各方打交道。他们的医生不喜欢这个系统。我是说,有各种各样的情况。但说到底,摩根大通、亚马逊和伯克希尔,我们根本改变不了那 20%。

WARREN BUFFETTWe’re spending close—it’s hard to get the precise figure—but close to 20% of GDP on health. And if you go back to 1960, there were a number of countries that were each spending around 5% and then the lines began to diverge dramatically. But the mathematical fact that there are only 100 percentage points in the equation didn’t change. So we tried that experiment with JP Morgan and Amazon. We had three people who didn’t think they knew the answer, but thought that—In my case, I used the term that it was a tapeworm in the economy—the tapeworm was alive in every part of the country. The hospitals liked it. The hospitals had prominent people who worked with people. Their doctor didn’t like the system. I mean, all kinds of things. But in the end, JP Morgan, Amazon and Berkshire, we’re not going to have any effect on changing that 20%.

沃伦·巴菲特那 20% 的 GDP —— 总共只有 100 个百分点,有的国家只花 6% 或 7%,也许还利用我们的体系让自己占了便宜,这也是千真万确的 —— 那是经济的巨大一块。它根深蒂固到了几乎不可能去做什么改变的地步,我们在上面也花过一些钱。我们做过一些研究,对自己的体系了解了不少,也看到了现有体系在多少人心里扎了根,不管是医疗服务提供方还是其他所有人。这些人不是坏人。我的意思是,他们只是在自己那一摊子里忙活,努力去救人。但我们发现,不管是在加拿大、法国、英国,还是别的地方都一样。他们也看我们的成本,但自己的成本要低得多,而且在某种程度上,我们在补贴世界其他地方 —— 人们会跑到美国来做那些极为罕见、极有挑战性的医疗项目,比如手术之类的。但我们一点进展都没有。

WARREN BUFFETTNow that 20%, there are only 100 percentage points available, and one of the countries spends 6 or 7%, and perhaps uses our system to their advantage, which is also very true. That is an enormous percentage of the economy. It was too entrenched to really do much in the way of change, and we spent some money on it. We did some work and we learned a good bit about our own systems, and we saw the degree to which the present system was ingrained in so many people, whether the healthcare providers or whether everybody. And these aren’t evil people. I mean, they’re just going about something and trying to save lives. But we found that whether it was in Canada or France or Britain, or wherever might be. And they do look at our cost, but they were just far higher and to some extent, we were subsidizing the rest of the world, and people would come to the United States to do the really unusual or challenging aspects of health, in terms of operations and that sort of thing. But we made no progress.

沃伦·巴菲特会到这样一个节点,政府,我是说,它已经如此深地卷入这个局面,而且健康对每个人来说太重要了。我跟杰米和杰夫说过,好吧,是绦虫赢了。当一个行业占到 GDP 的 20% 时,社会就会出问题。想去改变这个行业的热情有多大,这个行业掌握的政治力量就有多大。这倒不是说他们多坏,只是每个人最终都会走到那一步。

WARREN BUFFETTThere comes a point where the governments, that I mean, it’s so involved in the situation and health is so important to everybody. What I said to Jamie and Jeff, I said, well, the tape worm won. There are problems in society when you get 20% of your GDP going into a given industry. The degree of enthusiasm for changing that industry, the political power that the industry will have, and that doesn’t mean they’re evil, it’s everybody they just ends up there.

沃伦·巴菲特因此我们得出结论,我们不知道答案。我们三个人有钱去做这件事。但我们不知道如何改变 3.3 亿人对他们医生的看法、对他们医疗保健的看法、他们觉得自己有权获得什么。它不会自己改变,而政府是唯一能够改变它的力量,而且唯一能改变它的政府需要争取 435 名众议员和 100 名参议员中的多数票。

WARREN BUFFETTSo we came to a conclusion, we didn’t know the answer. Three of us had the money to do it. And we didn’t know how to change of 330 million people felt about their doctor, felt about their health care, what they felt entitled to. It won’t change by itself, and the government is the only one that can change it, and the only people and governments that can change it are getting the majority of 435 people and hundred people.

沃伦·巴菲特我父亲一生输过一次选举,是 1948 年,他那时是个非常坚定的共和党人。1950 年,他回头击败了 1948 年赢他的那个人。他得到了医生们的支持,这些人非常优秀,他们百分之百相信自己在做的事,每天都在帮助别人。疫情期间,人们为了拯救他人作出的牺牲简直不可思议。你能想象在那样一个地方工作吗?送来的病人一批一批地濒临死亡,而你还要尽力保持自己的士气,继续和他们一起工作。所以,这份工作的重要性是无可争辩的。

WARREN BUFFETTMy dad lost one election in his life in 1948, and he was a very strong Republican. In 1950, he went back and beat the guy who beat him in 1948. And he got the doctors behind him, and they’re very well, and they believe 100% in what they’re doing. They’re helping people every day. And during the pandemic, the sacrifices made by people to save other people are just incredible. Can you imagine working in something where they’re bringing in people that are, you know, going to die by the dozens and dozens and dozens, and you try to somehow keep your own morale up and keep working with them. So you can’t argue about the importance of it.

沃伦·巴菲特但我们的成本跟世界上任何国家都截然不同。这是一个巨大的因素,而且我们是一个非常富裕的国家,所以我们可以做其他国家做不了的事情。而且,通过我们选出的代表,以及长期演化出的各种安排,我们发展出了一个对任何重大变革都极具抵抗力的体系。而这个体系在每个它所存在的社区里都至关重要。

WARREN BUFFETTBut our costs are so different from any country in the world. It’s a huge element, and we’re a very rich country, so we can do things other countries can’t do. And through our elected representatives, and all varieties of things over time. We develop a system that is enormously resistant to any kind of major change, and it’s important in every community that it’s in.

沃伦·巴菲特所以,我希望我们能给你一个答案,但我进去之前就有些悲观,出来之后更悲观了一点。不过,我很高兴我们做了该做的事,过程中也看清了我们自己的不足。所以,伯克希尔实际上算是值回了票价,但我们并没有杀死那条绦虫。在这个国家,试图改变政府里的事,是个挺有意思的命题——因为那些进入政府并留下来的人,是经过自我筛选的。在某种程度上,他们一路走来不得不做一些自己并不喜欢的决定,然后学会接受它们,或者将其合理化,或者别的什么。但说到底,一切还是围绕着他们自己。

WARREN BUFFETTSo, I wish we had an answer for you, but I was somewhat pessimistic going in, and I was a little more pessimistic going out, but I’m glad we did what we did, and we learned something about our own failings in the process. So Berkshire, in effect, got his money’s worth, but we didn’t kill the tapeworm. Trying to change things in government is an interesting proposition in the country because you get self-selection in terms of the people who go into government and continue in it. And to some extent, they have to make decisions that they don’t like as they go along, and they learn to accept them or rationalize them or whatever it may be, but it’s still about them.

沃伦·巴菲特这个国家比世界上任何国家都发展得更好,所以你不能说它失败了,但你也不能否认,有些问题确实极难找到解决办法。当然,其中一个问题又回到了我之前提到的财政难题——花钱容易,削减人们的收入却很难。而且,一旦你当选,你会对自己说:嗯,如果我继续留在位子上,我能做更多好事。然后,如果我真在这类事情上凭良心投票,你这里妥协一点,那里妥协一点,再妥协一点。最后,你对着镜子都认不出自己了。

WARREN BUFFETTThis country has worked out better than any country in the world, so you can’t argue as a failure, but you can’t argue that there are certain problems that are terribly tough to figure out ways to solve. And of course, one of them gets back to the fiscal problem, I mentioned before, because it’s easy to spend money, and it’s hard to cut people’s receipts and if you get elected, you’re going to say to yourself, well, I can do more good if I stay in. Then, if I really vote my conscience on this sort of thing, you give away a little bit here and a little bit there and a little bit there. And finally, you don’t recognize yourself in the mirror anymore.

沃伦·巴菲特我在一个政治家庭长大,我观察过人们的行为方式,他们行事无非是人之常情,这你本就不该指望别的,我自己行事也是人之常情。尽管如此,我们仍然在以一种惊人的方式不断向前。相比于 100 年前或 200 年前,今天生活在这里要好得多,差别天翻地覆。所以你不能说这套体制是失败的,但你可以说,想在里面做出大的改变非常困难。好。5 号位。

WARREN BUFFETTI grew up in a political family, and I watched how people behaved, and they behave like human beings, which is what you have to expect, and I behave like a human being. So we still managed to keep moving forward in a dramatic way. It’s so much better to live here than it was 100 years ago, or 200 years ago. It’s dramatic. So you can’t say the systems of failure, but you can say that it’s very difficult to make major changes in it. OK. Station 5.

是经营者更容易成为投资者,还是投资者更容易成为经营者?

Is it easier for a business operator to be an investor or for an investor to be a business operator?

PIG HUANG CHEN(黄陈小萍)嗨,沃伦、格雷格。我叫黄陈小萍,来自台湾。这是我第七次来这儿。首先,我想感谢沃伦你慷慨分享智慧,你改变了我的生活,你是我的榜样。你提到阿贝尔先生未来将负责资本配置,我想听听你的看法:是经营者更容易成为投资者,还是投资者更容易成为经营者?谢谢。

PIG HUANG CHENHi, Warren, Greg. My name is Pig Huang Chen. I’m from Taiwan. This is my seventh time here. First of all, I want to thank you, Warren, for your generosity of sharing your wisdom. You changed my life, and you are my role model. You mentioned that Mr. Abel would be in charge of capital allocation in the future, and I’d like to know your perspective. Is it easier for a business operator to be an investor or for an investor to be a business operator? Thank you.

沃伦·巴菲特不,这个问题问得好。我看我们管他叫阿贝尔先生。我甚至还挺喜欢这么叫的。当经营者要难得多,我的意思是,像我这样坐在屋子里摆弄钱要容易得多。这种生活更轻松。但这并不代表这种生活更值得敬佩。不是的,不过对我来说,这确实是一段愉快的生活,所以我毫无怨言。我一直能选择自己的朋友,这让我的人生产生了天壤之别。我从来不用为我不佩服的人工作,我的意思是,那才是人生的奢侈。我为之效力过的五个人都棒极了。

WARREN BUFFETTNo, that’s a good question. I see we call them Mr. Abel. I even like it. It’s a lot tougher to be an operator, I mean, it’s easier to sit in a room like I do and play around with money. This is an easier life. That doesn’t mean it’s a more admirable life. It doesn’t, but it’s actually been a pleasant life for me, so I don’t complain the least. I’ve been able to choose my friends, which has made an enormous difference in my life. I’ve never had to work for anybody that I really didn’t admire, I mean, that’s the luxury of life. And five different people I work for were fantastic.

沃伦·巴菲特当年本地《便士报》有个经理,那报纸原来离这儿也就几英里远,还有报社经理什么的都在那儿。我自己遇到的每一位老师,我从来没有失望过——不过我得承认,和做企业经营者相比,我在选择如何度过每一天这件事上,拥有超乎寻常的自由。在很多情况下,如果要面对某些身不由己的行为,我倒是挺愿意去竞争成为顶级经营者。

WARREN BUFFETTThere was a manager of the local pennies, which is located, well, it used to be located a couple of miles from here, and newspaper managers and everything there. I’ve never been really disappointed by any teacher I’ve had, but I would have to admit that I have been able to choose what I do with my day to an extraordinary degree compared to being a business operator. In many cases, I would like to compete to be a top-notch business operator in terms of some of the behaviours that might be forced upon me.

沃伦·巴菲特我发现自己处在一个可以按自己意愿经营公司的位置,这是一种极为奢侈的事。说到这里,我得提一句,我这边有提示了,写着“5 分钟警告,感叹号,5 分钟警告,感叹号”。所以接下来我想花几分钟跟各位聊一个话题,等我说完之后,我会让贝基问我两个问题——当我在聊的时候,你们可能也会想到一些问题想提出来。明天我们要开伯克希尔的董事会,我们有 11 位董事。其中有两位董事是我的孩子,霍莉和苏茜,她们知道我要在会上说什么。其他董事呢,这个消息对他们来说也是新闻。

WARREN BUFFETTI’ve found myself in this position where I can run the kind of company I want to run, and that’s an extraordinary luxury. And with that, I should say that I’m getting a section that says 5-minute warning, exclamation point, 5-minute warning, exclamation point. So I would now like to turn to a subject that I want to discuss with you a few minutes, and then when I’m through discussing this, I’ll let Becky ask me a question or two, which you may want some of the questions that come to you as either I make these comments. Tomorrow we’re having a board meeting of Berkshire and we have 11 directors. Two of the directors, who are my children, Holly and Susie, know what I’m going to talk about there. The rest of them, this will come as news, too.

沃伦·巴菲特但我认为,这个时机已经到了,格雷格应该在年底成为公司的首席执行官。我会把这一想法正式提交给董事会,作为我的建议。让他们有时间思考任何问题、结构或其他他们想了解的事情,然后在几个月后的下一次会议上,我们会根据 11 位董事的意见采取行动。我认为他们会一致同意。这将意味着,到年底,格雷格将成为伯克希尔的首席执行官,而我还会在周围待着,或许在某些情况下能派上一点用场,但最终的决定——无论是运营还是资本配置,不论是什么——都将由格雷格拍板。

WARREN BUFFETTBut I think the time has arrived where Greg should become the chief executive officer of the company at year-end, and I want to bring that to the directors effectively and then get that as my recommendation. Let them have the time to think about what questions or what structures or anything that they want, and then at the meeting following that, which will come in a few months. We’ll take action whatever the view is of the 11 directors. I think they’ll be unanimously in favour of it. And that would mean that the year-end, Greg would be the chief executive officer of Berkshire, and I would still hang around and could conceivably be useful in a few cases, but then, the final word would be what Greg said in operations and capital deployment, whatever it might be.

沃伦·巴菲特我相信,如果我们碰上重大机遇期之类的情形,我在某些方面能帮上忙。我认为伯克希尔有一种特殊的声誉——在政府遇到麻烦的时候,我们是资产而不是负担。这种定位是很难得的,因为通常情况下,在那种时期,公众乃至政府都会对企业非常反感。

WARREN BUFFETTI could be helpful, I believe, in certain respects, if we ran into periods of great opportunity or anything. I think that Berkshire has a special reputation that when there are times of trouble for the government that we are an asset and not a liability, which is a position that is very hard to have because usually the public and then the government get very negative on business if there’s a time like that.

沃伦·巴菲特但我觉得,也许会有我不在家的时候,但格雷格会手握决定权,由他来做决策。就像我说的,无论是收购这件事,我认为董事会会更愿意在大额收购上给他更大授权,尤其是当他们知道我能待在旁边的时候。但无论如何,他将是首席执行官,没有二话。我可以说,计划是这样的——格雷格直到此刻听到才知晓——那就是,董事会明天可以问我一些问题,关于他们应该思考哪些具体事项等等。但他们会自己消化的。

WARREN BUFFETTBut so I think I could there might be a time without I’d be home, but Greg would have the tickets and he would make, like I said whether it’s acquisitions, I think the board would be more welcome to giving him more authority on large acquisitions, probably if they knew it was around. But He would be the chief executive, period. And I can say the plan is to—And Greg doesn’t know anything about this until what he’s hearing right now—but that the board will be able to ask me questions tomorrow, as a little more of the specifics of what they should be thinking and all that. But they’ll digest it.

沃伦·巴菲特然后在之后的那次董事会上。如果——我猜测他们会的,如果他们采取行动,那我们显然要向全世界宣布伯克希尔发生了重大变化,然后我们就会推进这件事,我则会玩我的灵应盘,或者随意做点什么,但我毫无打算——零打算——卖出一股伯克希尔·哈撒韦股票。这些股票会逐步捐出去。

WARREN BUFFETTAnd then at the next board meeting after that. If we, as I would guess, we would if they act, then obviously we have something to announce to the world as a material change in Berkshire, and we’ll go forward with that operation and I will play with the Ouija board or whatever comes out in terms of doing things but I have no intention—zero—of selling one share of Berkshire Hathaway. It’ll get given away gradually.

沃伦·巴菲特好了,带上你的可乐,冷静一下。我想补充一点,决定一股都不卖是一项经济决策,因为我认为,在格雷格的管理下,未来的前景会比在我手里更好。不过呢,我还是会参与进来。未来也许会有一个时点,我们有重金出手的机会,如果那一刻真的到来,我想董事会知道我把全部身家都押在公司里,这件事可能会有些帮助——他们知道我认定这样做是明智的,而且我也见识了格雷格做出的成绩。所以,伙计,这就是今天的新闻由头。感谢你的到来。

WARREN BUFFETTOK, bring your Coke and calm down. I would add this decision to keep every share is an economic decision because I think the prospects of pressure will be better under Greg’s management than mine and but you know, I will come in, and there may come a time when we get a chance to invest a lot of money, and if that time comes, I think it may be helpful with the board the fact that they know I’ve got all my money in the company, and that I think it’s smart and I’ve seen what Greg has done. So that’s the news hook for the day, fellow. And thanks for coming.

沃伦·巴菲特刚才那阵回应所展现的热情,可以有两种解读,不过我就欣然接受了。谢谢。

WARREN BUFFETTThe enthusiasm shown by that response can be interpreted in two ways, but I’ll take it. Thank you.