买入美国，正当此时（《纽约时报》2008-10-17）
金融世界如今一片狼藉，美国如此，海外亦然。更麻烦的是，金融体系的问题还在不断渗入整体经济，且渗漏眼下正演变为井喷。短期内，失业率将攀升，商业活动将步履蹒跚，新闻标题仍会令人心惊。于是……我一直在买入美国股票。我说的是我自己的个人账户，这个账户此前除了美国国债之外什么都没持有。（此处不包括我持有的伯克希尔·哈撒韦股票，这些股份已全部承诺用于慈善捐赠。）如果股价继续保持吸引力，我不在伯克希尔内的净资产很快就将百分之百配置为美国股票。为什么？
THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary. So ... I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities. Why?
相关报道 《纽约时报》专题：沃伦·E·巴菲特 我的买入遵循一条简单的法则：别人贪婪时我恐惧，别人恐惧时我贪婪。毫无疑问，如今恐惧已四处蔓延，连身经百战的投资者也深受其困。当然，投资者对高杠杆实体或竞争力薄弱的企业保持警惕是合情合理的。但对于我国众多健康公司的长期繁荣忧心忡忡，却毫无道理。这些企业确实会像以往一样遭遇盈利的暂时波折，但大多数大公司将在未来 5 年、10 年、20 年再创利润新高。 图片提供：布拉德·霍兰德 有一点我需要说清楚：我无法预测股市的短期走势。股市一个月后或一年后会更高还是更低，我毫无头绪。不过，可能出现的情形是，在情绪或经济形势好转之前——或许早得多——市场就已经走高，且涨幅可能相当可观。所以，如果你非要等到知更鸟报春，春天就已经过去了。这里回顾一段小历史：大萧条期间，道琼斯指数在 1932 年 7 月 8 日跌至 41 点的低点。但经济状况仍在持续恶化，直到富兰克林·D·罗斯福 1933 年 3 月就任总统。在那时，市场已经提前上涨了 30%。或者再回想二战初期，美国在欧洲和太平洋战场处境极为艰难，市场却在 1942 年 4 月触底，远早于盟军命运的转折。同样，在 80 年代初，买股票的最佳时机正是通胀肆虐、经济一团糟的时候。简而言之，坏消息是投资者最好的朋友。它让你能以打折价买入美国未来的一部分。放眼长期，股市的消息会是好的。在 20 世纪，美国经历了两场世界大战和其他造成巨大创伤且代价高昂的军事冲突；经历了大萧条；经历了十几次衰退和金融恐慌；经历了石油危机；经历了流感大流行；还经历了一位名誉扫地的总统辞职。然而，道琼斯指数仍从 66 点涨到了 11,497 点。你或许会认为，在这样一个涨幅如此惊人的世纪里，投资者根本不可能亏钱。但就是有投资者亏了。这些不幸的投资者只有在感觉安心时才买入股票，随后一看到令人不安的头条新闻就卖出。如今，持有现金等价物的人感觉安稳，但他们不该有这种感觉。他们选择了一种非常糟糕的长期资产，这种资产几乎不带来任何回报，且购买力注定会贬值。事实上，政府为缓解当前危机而将采取的各类政策，很可能被证明是通胀性的，从而会加速现金账户实际价值的缩水。未来十年，股票几乎肯定会跑赢现金，且很可能幅度还非常显著。眼下死守现金的投资者，是在赌他们能日后精准择时，把资金从现金里撤出来。他们在等待好消息带来的舒适感，却忽略了韦恩·格雷茨基的忠告：“我滑向冰球将要去的地方，而不是它呆过的地方。”我不喜欢对股市发表看法，我也再次强调，对市场的短期走向我毫无头绪。不过，我会效仿一家餐厅的做法。这家餐厅开在一栋空置的银行大楼里，打出了这样的广告：“把嘴放到你以前放钱的地方。”今天，我的钱和我的嘴都在说：股票。
Related Coverage Times Topic: Warren E. Buffett A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now. Photo Credit Brad Holland Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over. A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price. Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497. You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy. Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts. Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.” I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities.