2009 年 CNBC《Keeping America Great》巴菲特与盖茨 town hall

2009-11-12 · 金融危机、资本主义、教育与长期乐观 · 原文约 10661 词
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CNBC 文稿沃伦·巴菲特与比尔·盖茨——让美国保持伟大

CNBC TRANSCRIPTWarren Buffett & Bill Gates - Keeping America Great

以下是 CNBC 市政厅式活动《沃伦·巴菲特与比尔·盖茨:让美国保持伟大》的非官方文字记录。该活动于 2009 年 11 月 12 日星期四在纽约市哥伦比亚大学录制。

This is the unofficial transcript of the CNBC Town Hall event Warren Buffett and Bill Gates: Keeping America Great , taped Thursday, November 12, 2009 at Columbia University in New York City.

本记录由 Realtime Transcription Inc. 为 CNBC 制作。

It was prepared for CNBC by Realtime Transcription Inc.

该文字记录也可作为 Adobe Acrobat PDF 文档下载。

The transcript is also available for downloading as an Adobe Acrobat PDF document.

播音员美国梦的化身,沃伦·巴菲特和比尔·盖茨,白手起家的亿万富翁,他们的价值观与他们积累的财富一样深厚。一位重新定义了行业,另一位重新定义了现代投资者。但两人都押注于美国这片土地,通过投资于商业和人性,收获了这块伟大土地资本主义传统带来的回报。如今,这一传统正遭受围攻,我们的生活方式受到质疑。在身处转折点的美国,下一代人正从全球最伟大的两位资本家身上寻求指引。现在,他们重返校园,不是为了学习,而是为了传授。向新一代商界领袖展示,财富并非在于你积攒的金钱,而在于你充实了多少生命。今晚,在 CNBC 市政厅式活动中,沃伦·巴菲特和比尔·盖茨将分享他们让美国保持伟大的秘诀。

ANNOUNCERThe embodiment of the American dream, Warren Buffett and Bill Gates, self-made billionaires whose values run as deep as their wealth. One redefined an industry, the other the modern investor. But both put their stock in America, and by investing in business and humanity, reaped the rewards of this great country's capitalist tradition. Today that tradition is under siege, our way of life questioned. And with America at an inflection point, a future generation looks for guidance from the world's two greatest capitalists. Now, they are going back to school, not to learn, but to teach. Showing the next generation of business leaders that wealth is not about the money you amass, but the number of lives you enrich. Tonight in a CNBC town hall event, Warren Buffett and Bill Gates share their secrets to keeping America great.

贝基·奎克一场特别的 CNBC 市政厅式活动。我是贝基·奎克,在哥伦比亚大学的哥伦比亚商学院。各位,让我们听听你们的热情。[欢呼和掌声] 我们身处纽约市中心。这里是全球资本主义的中心,是梦想确实能成真的地方。事实上,看看今天在座的所有人。我们身边可能——[欢呼和掌声]——我们身边可能就坐着下一个沃伦·巴菲特或比尔·盖茨。你呢?准备好了吗?

BECKY QUICKA special CNBC town hall. I am Becky Quick at Columbia Business School at Columbia University. Let's hear it, guys. [CHEERS AND APPLAUSE] We are in the heart of New York City. This is the world's center of capitalism and this is the place where dreams really do come true. In fact, right now, look at all these people here today. We could be surrounded -- [CHEERS AND APPLAUSE] -- We could be surrounded by the next Warren Buffett or Bill Gates. How about you? You ready to go?

现场学生今天能来到这里,我们都兴奋极了。你们根本想象不到,外面那些票都炒到什么价了。

STUDENTWe are so excited to all be here today. You wouldn't believe how much tickets are being sold for out front.

贝基我知道你没说实话。你得凭证件才能进来,对吧?

BECKYI know you're not telling the truth. You had to get in with your I.D., right?

学生是的,这倒是真的。

STUDENTYes, this is true.

贝基我们今晚准备好了。今晚的主题都是“让美国保持伟大”。[欢呼和掌声]

BECKYWe're ready to go tonight. Tonight it is all about Keeping America Great. [CHEERS AND APPLAUSE]

在这件事上,没有人比沃伦·巴菲特和比尔·盖茨做得更出色了。各位,让我们欢迎沃伦·巴菲特和比尔·盖茨。[欢呼和掌声]

No people have done that better than Warren Buffett and Bill Gates. Folks, let's please welcome Warren Buffett and Bill Gates. [CHEERS AND APPLAUSE]

我看沃伦是打算借着哥伦比亚大学来讨好现场观众呢。[欢呼与掌声]

I see Warren is trying to work the home crowd here with Columbia. [CHEERS AND APPLAUSE]

两位先生,非常感谢你们今晚能来。众所周知,正如你们所知,这是极不寻常的一年。这一年的规则被彻底改写,我们扔掉了规则手册,亲眼目睹了一个个标志性巨头轰然崩塌。此时也正值很多人——包括在座各位——对我们既有的生活方式心生疑虑。稍后我们会重点讨论这个问题。两位,在进入正题之前,你们二位看起来可能像是一对奇怪的组合。对于任何不太了解你们二位的人来说——

Gentlemen, thank you so much for joining us tonight. This has been, as you know, an extraordinary year. This is a year where the rules have been completely rewritten, where we have thrown out the rule books, and we have seen icons collapse. This is also a time when a lot of people have probably wondered about our way of life. People in this very room. That's going to be our focus in just a minute. Gentlemen, before we get to that, the two of you may seem like an odd pair. For anybody who doesn't know you two well --

巴菲特等听完我们讲的,你会觉得更奇怪。[笑声]

BUFFETTYou'll think more odd when we get through. [LAUGHTER]

贝基今晚是什么让你们两位聚到了一起?为什么是你们两位,又为什么是在这里,和这些哥伦比亚大学的商学院学生在一起?

BECKYWhat brings you two together tonight? Why you two and why here with these business students here at Columbia?

沃伦·巴菲特嗯,我们就是喜欢一起做事。其实,我当年离开哥伦比亚大学的时候,他们跟我说,我大概还得回来重修几门课。所以,我这不是来了嘛。

WARREN BUFFETTWell, we enjoy working together. Actually, when I left Columbia, they told me I would probably have to come back and repeat a few classes. So here I am.

贝基比尔,你呢?你准备好和学生们一起了吗?

BECKYBill, what about you? You are ready to go with the students?

比尔·盖茨是啊,肯定会非常有趣。沃伦和我都喜欢回答问题,也喜欢聊聊我们那种乐观态度。[掌声]

BILL GATESYeah, it will be a lot of fun. Warren and I love getting the questions and talking about our optimism. [APPLAUSE]

贝基·奎克今晚请二位来这里,是因为现在正处于历史的关键时刻。人们对经济、对整个资本主义体系都心存疑问。二位,我想请问你们,在过去一年里,有没有哪个时刻,你们对资本主义、对我们的生活方式产生过怀疑?

BECKYThe reason you two are here tonight is this is a pivotal moment in history. People have questions about the economy, about our entire system of capitalism. And, gentlemen, let me ask each of you, over the course of the last year, was there ever a time that you had doubts about capitalism and about our way of life?

巴菲特没有,从未有过。如果真要找,那就是去年九月——我们投了大笔钱的时候,整个国家正面临深渊。资金从货币市场基金里涌出,商业票据市场崩塌,所有东西都完了。我们在短短几天内投了 80 亿美元。那时我也从未对这个体系失去信心。这个国家能行,你知道的,我们有 200 年的历史证明。未来它还会继续。[掌声]

BUFFETTNo, there was not a time. If there had been, last September when we invested a lot of money, that was when the country was looking into the abyss. The money was flowing out of money market funds. The commercial paper market died and everything. We put $8 billion to work in just a matter of a few days then. So I never lost confidence in the system. This country works, you know. We've got 200 years of proof. And it's going to continue to work. [APPLAUSE]

贝基比尔,你怎么看,比尔?

BECKYBill, what do you think, Bill?

比尔·盖茨嗯,我们有一个复杂的金融体系,我们已经证明这个体系会让我们犯错。但比这更根本的是创新——你可以创办新公司,人们愿意冒险和投资,伟大的科学也在不断推进。这个国家仍然拥有最好的大学、最好的科学,而且我们也在不断调整资本主义体系,你知道的。关于用大量短期贷款来满足长期需求,以及过高的杠杆率,这些确实有一些教训。但这个体系的基础——一个由市场驱动的体系,同时我们长期投资于教育和基础设施建设——依然在延续。而且,你知道,我敢打赌,在那年秋天最黑暗的时刻,依然有一些发明诞生:人们在研发新药、新芯片、新机器人,以及各种能让未来几十年里每个人生活更美好的东西。[掌声]

GATESWell, we have a complex financial system which we have proven that we can make mistakes. But more fundamental than that is the innovation, the fact that you can create new companies, that people are willing to take risk and invest, that there's great science going on. This country still has the best universities, the best science, and we're going to tune our system of capitalism, you know. The idea that you have a lot of short-term loans covering long-term needs, the amount of leverage that was there, there are definitely some lessons. But the fundamentals of the system, a marketplace-driven system where we invest in education and a great infrastructure for the long-term, that's continued. And, you know, I'll bet there are some inventions that took place in that fall in the darkest hour: People were working on new drugs, new chips, new robots and things to make life better for everyone in the decades ahead. [APPLAUSE]

贝基好。今晚的主角是学生们,我们不如直接开始吧。你先来。准备好了吗?

BECKYAll right. Tonight is all about the students and why don't we start out and get right to it. Why don't you start out. You ready to go?

提问者我们非常荣幸能邀请您二位来到这所大学。[掌声] 我的问题想同时请教盖茨先生和巴菲特先生。我想知道,在您二位看来,贪婪和不道德行为、缺乏伦理的行为,是否是导致最近这次金融危机的主要原因。

QUESTIONWe are honored to have you here at the university. [APPLAUSE] My question for you is directed to both of you, Mr. Gates and Mr. Buffett. I'd like to know your perspective on whether greed and immoral behavior, unethical behavior, were key causes of the recent financial crisis.

巴菲特你快要讲到结尾了,贝基。

BUFFETTYou went out toward the end, Becky.

贝基就是好奇,贪婪和腐败是不是这一切背后的原因。

BECKYJust wondering whether greed and corruption were behind what happened.

巴菲特它确实起到了一定作用。贪婪一直都存在,不是这十几年才有的。贪婪,还有第三季度的恐惧——我是说,有一阵子美国人民确实极为恐慌。它先是影响了华尔街,随后波及整个实体经济。但我们永远不可能消灭贪婪,也永远不可能消灭恐惧。我们拥有的是一套体系,就像比尔说的,一个市场体系,这个国家在过去几百年里,把机会的质量和法治结合起来,释放了人的潜力,其程度在几个世纪前没人敢想象。这套体系没有出任何问题。我们的经济曾经磕磕绊绊,现在也还有些磕绊,但我们拥有的是有史以来最强大的发动机,而且它才刚刚开始。贪婪会继续下去,放心吧。奥利弗·斯通很快要出第二部电影了,戈登·盖科又要回来,大概又要被提一次。但那不是驱动美国体系的东西。驱动美国体系的,是市场体系中机会的质量,是你们知道离开这里之后,会享受到自己所学知识的成果。它会一直发挥作用。我愿意跟你们当中任何一个人交换位置。

BUFFETTIt certainly played a part. We have always had greed. That didn't get invented in the last few years. And greed, fear in the third quarter -- I mean, the American people were really panicked there for a while. And it affected their -- it started out on Wall Street but then spilled over into the general economy subsequently. But we're never going to get rid of greed. We're never going to get rid of fear. What we do have is a system, as Bill said, a market system where we have the quality of opportunity and the rule of law combined to unleash human potential in this country over the last couple of hundred years to the degree nobody would have believed possible a few centuries before that. There's nothing that's gone wrong with that system. Our economy was sputtering and still is sputtering some. But we've got the greatest engine ever devised. And it's just beginning. Greed will continue. Don't worry about that. Oliver Stone is putting out a second film here pretty soon. Probably get mentioned again in this one with Gordon Gekko making a return. But that is not what drives the American system. What drives the American system is the quality of opportunity in a market system and the knowledge that when you get out of here, you're going to enjoy the fruits of the knowledge you have gained. And it will keep working. I'd love to trade places with any of you.

贝基比尔,你对这个问题还有什么补充吗?

BECKYBill, do you have any extra thoughts on that?

比尔·盖茨好的,最好的体系就是那些既有好的短期指标、完善的会计制度、关注利润和风险,又愿意做长期布局的体系。投资于新研究,允许人们创立新公司。这个国家愿意冒险给年轻人机会,我是其中的巨大受益者。而且,你知道,我得以雇用比我年长的人,把产品卖给比我年长的人。这简直像梦想成真。这种事情——其他国家看到了,也在努力创造同样的活力。这对世界是好事。中国和印度能借鉴我们在大学、创业精神、商业简化方面的理念,这非常棒。我们没人想借鉴那种极端的杠杆。但从某种意义上说,这有点像——我不想说是小事,但它并非事情如此成功的核心原因。

GATESWell, the best systems are ones where you have good short-term metrics, great accounting, looking at profits, looking at risk and willing to do things long-term. Investing in new research, letting people build new companies. I was a huge beneficiary of this country's unique willingness to take risk on a young person. And, you know, I got to hire people who were older. I got to sell to people who were older. And it was kind of a dream come true. And that kind of thing is -- other countries have seen it and they are trying to create that same dynamic. And that's good for the world. It's excellent that China and India will borrow our ideas about universities, about entrepreneurship, simplification of business. None of us want to borrow this extreme leverage that we got into. But in a sense, that's kind of a -- I don't want to say minor, but it doesn't speak to the heart of why things have worked so well.

贝基好的。咱们接着问下一个问题。这边这位怎么样?

BECKYAll right. Let's get to another question. How about right here?

现场人士您好。我叫阿科西亚·巴吉马,来自北弗吉尼亚地区,是哥伦比亚大学一年级学生。再次感谢两位莅临,深感荣幸。我的问题想请教盖茨先生。盖茨先生,我知道您并非金融行业人士,但能否告诉我们,您第一次听到雷曼兄弟申请破产时的心情如何?

QUESTIONHello. My name is Accosia Bagima. I am from the Northern Virginia area and I'm a first-year student here at Columbia. And I want to thank, once again, both of you for coming. It's an honor. My question is directed toward Mr. Gates. Mr. Gates, I know you're not in the finance industry, but can you tell us what you were feeling when you first heard that Lehman was filing for bankruptcy?

比尔·盖茨我对投资银行了解得不多,盯得也不紧。所以,当时我没觉得这是什么根本上的坏事。在科技行业,我最佩服的两家公司——王安电脑和数字设备公司——基本上都破产了。数字设备最后是被收购的。所以,这种事本身有起有落,某个公司被淘汰出局,我对那家特定的公司没什么感情。不过,这事带来的连锁反应——其他人欠他们钱,那些债务很难清算,这种复杂性可能导致整个市场冻结——我当时打电话给沃伦,问:“我该担心吗?”他说:“有一点吧。”[笑声]

GATESI don't follow investment banks, you know, very closely. So it didn't strike me as fundamentally a terrible thing. In the technology business, the two companies I admired the most, Wang Industries and Digital Equipment, had both basically gone bankrupt. Digital actually got bought. And so the fact that there's these ups and downs, certain firms get knocked out, I didn't have any sentimentality over that particular firm. Now, this knock-on effect where other people had debts to them and those were going to be very hard to settle and that complexity might cause things to freeze up, that I called up Warren and I said, "Should I be worried?" And he said, "A little bit." [LAUGHTER]

贝基沃伦,政府听任雷曼破产,算不算一个错误?

BECKYWarren, was it a mistake for the government to allow Lehman to go under?

巴菲特有可能算。但我想说,总体来看,华盛顿官员应对这场我们所说的经济“珍珠港”事件,做得相当出色。所以我想说,如果美林没有被美国银行收购,美林会很快倒下。当时多米诺骨牌确实已经排好了。也许大家并没有充分意识到,雷曼这块骨牌到底有多大,或者说它离后面几块大骨牌有多近。但总体而言,我给(前财政部长亨利·)保尔森、(美联储主席本·)伯南克、(联邦存款保险公司主席)希拉·贝尔、(财政部长蒂姆·)盖特纳打很高的分数,因为他们采取了前所未有的行动。 [掌声]

BUFFETTIt may have been. But I would say overall, the officials in Washington did a terrific job of dealing with really what was an economic Pearl Harbor , as we talked about. So I would say that if Merrill hadn't been bought by the B of A, Merrill would have gone very quickly. And the dominoes were really lined up. And I don't think it was fully appreciated, perhaps, what a big domino Lehman was or how close it was to the next big dominoes. But overall, I give (former Treasury Secretary Henry) Paulson, I give (Federal Reserve Chairman Ben)Bernanke, I give (FDIC Chairman) Sheila Bair, I give (Treasury Secretary) Tim Geithner, I give them very high marks for the fact they took unprecedented action. [APPLAUSE]

贝基我们来看下一个提问。就在后面话筒那边。请讲。

BECKYLet's get to another question. Right back here at the microphone. Go ahead.

提问者希望这话筒能用。

QUESTIONI hope this works.

贝基能用。听声音是好的。

BECKYIt does. It sounds like it.

提问者你好,我叫格雷格·莱特。我在俄亥俄州长大,现在显然也是个学生。我的问题跟雷曼兄弟和高盛有关,也和巴菲特先生有关——您当时有机会投这两家公司。我想知道您是如何选择投高盛的,为什么没考虑两家都投,或者说是什么让您决定不投雷曼兄弟。

QUESTIONHi, my name is Greg Letter. I grew up in Ohio and I'm also a current student, obviously. My question was with Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs, this relates to Mr. Buffett, you had the opportunity to invest. I was wondering how you chose to invest in Goldman Sachs and why you chose not to maybe invest in both, or what made you not decide to invest in Lehman Brothers.

巴菲特当时我对高盛的数据和管理层的信任,超过华尔街任何其他主要机构。当然,后来也完全可能发生变故,让高盛成为下一家倒下的。高盛首席执行官劳埃德·布兰克费恩说过一句话,讲自己比摩根士丹利就慢了 30 秒。安德鲁·罗斯·索金的《大而不倒》对这一段写得很详细。但我当时并不认为整个体系会垮。我认为华盛顿最终会做正确的事。我认为如果华盛顿做了正确的事,高盛——我认为高盛是运营最好的机构。我认为它的数字最扎实,未来会发展得最繁荣。另外,那些条款我也很喜欢。 [笑声]

BUFFETTI had more confidence in both the numbers and the management of Goldman Sachs than any other major firm in Wall Street at that time. Now, there could have been things happened that would have made Goldman Sachs be next in line. (Goldman CEO) Roy Blankfein had said I worked 30 seconds behind Morgan Stanley. This is covered very well in the book called "Too Big To Fail" by Andrew Ross Sorken. But I did not think the system was going to go under. I felt Washington in the end would do the right thing. I thought if they did the right thing, Goldman Sachs was -- I thought it was the best-run operation. I thought its figures were the most solid and I thought they would prosper the most in the future ahead. Plus I liked the terms, too. [LAUGHTER]

贝基沃伦,你当时说他们管理层最好,还有很多其他优点。自那之后,你改主意了吗?

BECKYWarren, you said at that time they had the best management and a lot of other things. Did you change your mind since then?

巴菲特不好意思,请再说一遍?

BUFFETTPardon me?

贝基你后来改变想法了吗?你当时说他们拥有最好的管理层。

BECKYHave you changed your mind since then? You said at that time they had the best management.

巴菲特我与高盛的渊源要追溯到 1940 年,那一年我认识了西德尼·温伯格。此后很长时间,我一直追踪这家公司。高盛内部有一套纪律,尤其在逐日盯市等方面,我认为可能是华尔街同行里做得最好的。而且我认为罗伊·布兰克费恩对风险有非常强的认知。当然,如果整个系统崩溃,人人都要遭殃。但我在很大程度上感觉到,他们已把最优秀的人融进了业务里。所以,高盛是我的首选。当时我手上还有另外几个可选项。 [掌声]

BUFFETTGoldman, my experience with Goldman goes back to when I met Sidney Weinberg in 1940. I followed the company a long time. They have a discipline around there that I think particularly in their marking to market and all of that, I think probably is the best among the firms in Wall Street. And I thought Roy Blankfein had a very strong appreciation of risk. Now, if the system went down, everybody gets hit. But I felt to a great extent they had factored the best people into the business. So they were my number one choice. I had a few other choices that were offered to me. [APPLAUSE]

贝基各位,下一个问题。下一个问题。

BECKYLet's get to another question, everybody. Another question.

提问者今天能跟两位坐在一起,非常荣幸。我叫约翰·莱姆利,老家在纽约斯卡斯代尔。这轮经济衰退如此严重,有人把它归咎于风险评估和承保标准出现了系统性崩溃,随后便爆发了一场党派色彩极浓的激烈辩论,争论政府该扮演什么角色。政府这个角色能是正面的吗?如果能,该怎么发挥正面作用?

QUESTIONIt's a pleasure to be here with both of you today. My name is John Lemley. I'm originally from Scarsdale, New York. Given the severity of the economic downturn, which some attribute to systemic breakdown in risk allegation and underwriting standards, a fiercely partisan debate has ensued regarding the appropriate role of government. Can this role be positive and if so, how?

贝基你们两位怎么看大政府?

BECKYWhat do you guys think about big government?

盖茨在商业周期中,政府显然有它的角色。多年来,这个角色一直在调整,也不可避免地犯过一些错误。现在的关键是——而这主要是通过通胀和利率来衡量的。现在还有这样一个问题:能否有一种衡量风险的手段,促使政府介入,也许是征税、要求大机构留出更多资金来应对交易风险。这说到底仍在讨论之中:你是否能事先识别这些情形,并真正让政府发挥非常积极的作用。而当局面开始崩盘时,我们固然知道有一些方法,可以更迅速地处理那些正在倒下、快要倒下的公司——这方面能做的事不少。但根本性的问题是:你能发现泡沫吗?政府能发现泡沫吗?这是个很大的问题。一些优秀的经济学家有些想法,但这并不是一个已经被验证的领域。

GATESWell, there's clearly a role for the government in business cycles. And over time, that's been tuned, you know, mistakes have been made. Now, the question is -- and that's largely measured through inflation and interest rates. Now, there's a question of could there be a measure of risk that would cause them to step in and maybe tax transactions, make the bigger firms put more money aside. That is still really a question of whether you can recognize these situations and actually have government play a very positive role. Now, as things start to fall apart, we know there are ways that taking firms that are going down and handling those in a more expedited way -- there's a lot that can be done there. But the basic idea of, can you spot bubbles? Can the government spot bubbles? That's a great question. Some great economists have some ideas. But it is not a proven territory.

沃伦·巴菲特去年九月,只有政府才能稳住局面。全世界都想降杠杆,而且是在极端仓促、有时甚至是被人拿枪顶着脑袋的情况下降杠杆。当所有人都想降杠杆时,唯一能同时加杠杆的实体就是联邦政府。当 2000 亿美元在几天内从货币市场基金流出、商业票据市场停摆时,只有联邦政府才能出手。好在当时有明白人看清了形势,迅速采取了行动。政府扮演着巨大的角色。现在向前看,要设计出一套办法,防止过度杠杆,防止表外安排出问题,防止大型机构的高管冒不该冒的风险,这本身就是件非常棘手的事。但我们眼下正在解决这个问题。对于那些因为大局利益不得不向联邦政府求救的机构,其高管应该承受更严重的后果。迄今为止,我们在胡萝卜和大棒上,更擅长用胡萝卜来奖励 CEO。但我觉得,现在需要多几根大棒了。

BUFFETTLast September, only the government could have saved things. The whole world wanted to deleverage. And they were deleveraging under conditions of extreme haste and with guns to their head in some cases. And the only entity that could possibly leverage up at the same time that everybody else wanted to deleverage was the Federal government. And when 200 billion flowed out of money market funds in a couple of days, when commercial paper stopped, only the Federal government could act then. And fortunately we had the people there who recognized that and acted promptly. The government has a huge role. And now going forward, it's a very tricky thing to figure out how to prevent excessive leverage and prevent off-balance sheet arrangements from getting in trouble or for just having people at the top of major institutions that run risks they shouldn't be running. But we're wrestling with that right now. There should be more down side to the head of any institution that has to go to the federal government to be saved for reasons of the greater society. And so far, we have been better at carrots and sticks in rewarding CEOs at the top. But I think some more sticks are called for.

贝基好的。我们来看下一个问题。【掌声】

BECKYAll right. Let's get to another question. [APPLAUSE]

提问者我叫布莱恩,是哥伦比亚大学的一年级学生。我目前在经营一所商学院,在我看来,这场全面信贷危机里很多反面角色都是商学院毕业生。你们觉得,像哥伦比亚这样的商学院,在多大程度上要为信贷危机中发生的事情负责?

QUESTIONMy name is Brian, first-year student here at Columbia. And I run a business school right now and seems to me a lot of the villains in the full credit crisis were business school graduates. To what extent do you guys think that business schools like Columbia were in some sense responsible for what transpired in the credit crisis?

比尔·盖茨嗯,别忘了资本主义取得了巨大的成功。生活水平、医药,所有这些伟大的成就都来自它。商学院在培养人们思考价值、领导力方面扮演着角色。像这样优秀的学府教授了许多精彩的技能。所以,虽然我们确实经历了一场危机,退步了,可能因为一些错误做法净浪费了两三年时间,但这并不意味着商学院没有提供伟大的服务。这场危机的案例研究将在未来几十年里在课堂上被讲授。所以至少,我们从经历的痛苦中获得了这一点好处。杠杆是非常危险的东西。也许,沃伦曾谈到衍生品是大规模杀伤性武器。这话没怎么被重视。但最终,这里发生的事情,尤其是在房地产领域,价格会下跌的风险以及这对那些工具系统性意味着什么,并没有被充分理解。于是,正如他所预言的那样,大规模杀伤随之而来。

GATESWell, remember that capitalism has been massively successful, you know. Standard of life, medicine, all these great things have come out of it. And business schools play a role in training people to think about value, leadership. There's wonderful skills that are taught at great schools like this. And so the fact that, yes, we have had a crisis and we have dropped back, maybe we wasted two or three years net because of the things that were done wrong, that doesn't say that business schools aren't performing a great service, you know. The case studies of this crisis will be taught here for decades to come. And so at least we'll get that benefit out of the pain we went through. Leverage is a very dangerous thing. And perhaps, you know, Warren talked about derivatives as weapons of mass destruction. That wasn't much heeded. And yet at the end of the day, what happened here, particularly in the real estate sector, the notion of risk that price would drop down and what that meant systematically for those instruments, it wasn't well understood. And the mass destruction followed as predicted.

贝基沃伦,商学院里能教道德伦理吗?还是说这东西得从别处来?

BECKYWarren, can you teach ethics in a business school? Does it have to come from somewhere else?

巴菲特现在请回来?

BUFFETTCome back now?

贝基商科院校能教人伦理道德吗?

BECKYCan you teach ethics at a business school?

巴菲特我认为,学习道德最好的地方是家庭。我们大多数人在进商学院之前,就已经从周围所见所闻中形成了自己的价值观。强调道德很重要,但如果让我选择,是让孩子在家庭里通过耳濡目染获得完备的道德教育,还是以后在学校上一门道德课,我会选家庭。在这个国家最棒的一点是,你完全可以在坚守道德的前提下取得巨大成功。道德不是绊脚石,有时候是助力,有时候是中性的,但绝不是绊脚石。至于走捷径——在座的各位都有无比光明的未来。我是说,你们即将进入的经济环境,比历史上任何时候都——【掌声】回看 19 世纪,我们经历过七次严重的银行恐慌。回看 20 世纪,我们经历过经济大萧条、世界大战和流感大流行。这个国家从不回避问题,它只是把问题一一解决了。未来 100 年里,我们的经济机器还会再次打嗝,也许会有 15 年表现平平,但会有 85 年繁荣昌盛。20 世纪的道琼斯指数从 66 点涨到了 11,400 点,所以你们脚下是一片肥沃的土壤,完全没有走捷径的必要。

BUFFETTWell, I think the best place to learn ethics is in the home. I think most of us get our values from what we see around us before we get to business school. I think that it's important to emphasize them, but I think that if I had a choice of having great education and ethics fully on in the home or as a course in a school later on, I would choose the home. The wonderful thing about it is in this country, is you can succeed magnificently with ethics. It's not a hindrance. It's a help sometimes. It's a neutral sometimes. But it's not a hindrance at all. And to cut corners, you know, everybody here has a wonderful future. I mean, this is an economy you're going into that is so much -- [APPLAUSE] If you look back on the 19 th Century, we had seven great bank panics. If you look back at the 20th Century, we had the Great Depression and world wars and flu epidemics. This country doesn't avoid problems. It just solves them. And in the next 100 years, our machine will sputter again, you know. Maybe 15 years will be so-so years, but there will be 85 great years. And during the 20th Century the Dow went from 66 to 11,400, so this is fertile soil that you're working in and there's no reasons to cut corners.

贝基好的。我们再请一位提问。【掌声】

BECKYAll right. Let's get another question. [APPLAUSE]

提问你好。我叫卡特里娜·甘肯娜,出生在俄罗斯。我是哥伦比亚商学院二年级学生。我的问题是问比尔·盖茨先生的。您觉得哪个行业会诞生下一个比尔·盖茨?因为那就是我想去工作的行业。【笑声】【掌声】

QUESTIONHi. My name is Katrina Gankena, and I was born in Russia. And I'm a second-year student at Columbia Business School. My question is for Mr. Gates. What industry do you think is going to produce the next Bill Gates? Because that's the industry I want to get a job in. [LAUGHTER] [APPLAUSE]

比尔·盖茨各行各业的创新节奏确实不一样。IT 行业,得益于软件的魔力、光纤的魔力、以及每两三年性能翻倍的芯片的魔力,不仅成了最激动人心的行业,还改变了许多其他行业的游戏规则。信息唾手可得、线上世界变成今天的样子——这太不可思议了。我跟你说,未来几十年里,还有几个行业会争着抢“最激动人心”的位子。能源行业,某些新方法会提供更便宜、更环保的能源,背后有大量科学和商业的推动,这是个全球性的大生意,里面会有很好的职业机会。还有医药行业,你看,我们还没攻克帕金森症、阿尔茨海默症,还有大约 20 种贫穷国家的疾病,但可以肯定的是,我们正走在攻克它们的路上。所以我觉得,你选这三个行业,会大有前途。其他行业也有很多,但对我个人来说,这几个最有吸引力。

GATESIndustries do have different paces of innovation. So the IT industry, driven by the magic of software, the magic of the optic fiber, magic of the chip which doubles in power every couple of years, it's been the industry that has not only been the most exciting, it's also changed the rules for many other industries. The idea of information being available, what the online world is like, that's incredible. I'll tell you, there are a few other industries that will compete for being exciting in the decades ahead. The energy business, some approach will provide cheaper energy that's environmentally friendly. And there's a lot of science, a lot of business. That's a global thing. There will be some great careers there. Medicine, you know. We haven't solved Parkinson's or Alzheimer's or about 20 diseases of these poor countries, and yet we can be sure that we're on track to do that. And so those three industries I think you would do great in. There's many others, but those are the ones that have the strongest appeal to me.

巴菲特找到让你兴奋的事。找到你真正热爱的事。如果我从哥伦比亚大学毕业时,有人跟我说,比尔的公司将是那个令人兴奋的行业,我想我肯定不会做得那么好。【笑声】但我知道什么让我兴奋。我有个教授,我主动提出免费为他工作。他说,“你定价过高了。”即便如此,我还是进了这个行业。【掌声】我向你保证,无论做什么让你兴奋的事,你都会做得很好。这点毫无疑问。别让任何人告诉你该做什么。你自己想清楚要做什么。【掌声】

BUFFETTFind what turns you on. Find what you have a passion for. If somebody said to me when I was getting out of Columbia, you know, that Bill's business was going to be the one that would be exciting, you know, I don't think I'd have done so well. [LAUGHTER] But I knew what turned me on. I had a professor, , I offered to go to work for him for nothing. He said, "You're overpriced." Nonetheless, I went into the business. [APPLAUSE] I will guarantee, you will do well at whatever turns you on. There's no question about that. Don't let anybody else tell you what to do. You figure out what you are doing. [APPLAUSE]

贝基好的。我们其实有机会对这些学生做了一次民意调查。我们问他们,有生之年是否还会出现像微软这样具有变革性的公司。他们的回答可能会让你大吃一惊。我们稍作休息后就来揭晓。

BECKYAll right. We actually got the chance to poll these students. And we asked them if there would ever be a company as transformative as Microsoft in their lifetime. You might be surprised at their response. We will tell you right after this break.

寻找下一个比尔·盖茨

LOOKING FOR THE NEXT BILL GATES

贝基欢迎回到 CNBC 的圆桌访谈。我们现在和比尔·盖茨、沃伦·巴菲特一起,在哥伦比亚大学商学院,地处纽约市中心。在刚才那段休息之前,我们请了一位现场的学生——实际上是现场学生提问,哪个行业将诞生下一个比尔·盖茨。现在,正如我们提到过的,我们有机会对在座的学生做了一个调查,问他们是否认为在有生之年会再看到一家像微软那样具有变革意义的公司。两位先生,十个人里有八个回答“会”。也就是说,80% 的人都认为会有这样的公司。你们这帮人真是热情高涨。比尔,你也认同这种乐观态度吗?

BECKYWelcome back to CNBC's town hall. We are with Bill Gates and Warren Buffett at the Columbia School of Business at Columbia University. We're in the heart of New York City. And before we went to that break, we asked one of our students -- one of our students actually asked, which industry is going to be producing the next Bill Gates. Now, as we mentioned, we got the chance to take a poll of the students in this room and we asked them if they thought they would ever see a company as transformative as Microsoft in their lifetimes again. Gentlemen, eight out of 10 said yes. That's 80% saying yes, they do think this will be another issue. You guys are a very enthusiastic bunch. Bill, do you share that sense of optimism?

盖茨当然。资本主义很伟大,成千上万的事情同时发生。其中很多会失败,有些只是平庸。但那些特别出色的,就能成长起来,然后,你知道的,让所有人震惊。在我提到的所有那些领域里,都会有几家公司让你叹为观止。

GATESAbsolutely. Capitalism is great and having thousands of things going on in parallel. And a lot of them fail. Some are just mediocre. But the ones that are special can grow and, you know, stun everybody. And in all those fields I mentioned, there is going to be several companies that kind of take your breath away.

贝基好的。我们再来回答一位学生的问题。[掌声]

BECKYAll right. Let's get to another student question. [APPLAUSE]

提问者嗨,我叫丽莎·威廉姆斯,来自新泽西州南奥兰治。我现在是 MBA 项目的一年级学生。很高兴见到两位。我的问题其实是问巴菲特先生的。对于最近收购伯灵顿北方的交易,大家讨论了很多关于驱动因素的话题。我想知道,您能否跟我们分享一下,您当时想要增加对铁路行业敞口的主要动机是什么。

QUESTIONHi, my name is Lisa Williams. I'm from South Orange, New Jersey. I'm currently a first-year at the MBA program. Glad to have you both here. My question is actually for Mr. Buffett. There has been a lost of discussion around the true drivers with the recent deal with Burlington Northern . I was wondering if you could share with us your key motivation for wanting to increase exposure to the railroad sector at this time.

巴菲特你们知道,我六岁那会儿想要一套火车玩具,结果我爸没给我买。[掌声] 你们想想看,铁路跟这个国家未来的繁荣是绑在一起的。你没办法把一条铁路搬到中国、印度,或者任何其他地方去。我们的出发点——我想不出比这更靠谱的出发点了——就是这个国家的人会越来越多,十年、二十年、三十年后都是如此。他们会往返运送越来越多的货物。而铁路是完成这件事最环保、最具成本效益的方式。伯灵顿北方公司去年——平均下来,一加仑柴油能把一吨货物运送 470 英里。这比公路运输要高效得多,远远超出。整体来看,它们比卡车少用三分之一的燃料,向大气排放的污染物也少得多。一列火车能代替大约 280 辆卡车在路上跑。所以说,铁路是跟未来接轨的。我喜欢西部。我喜欢伯灵顿那三万多英里的铁路网。你知道,如果这个国家前景黯淡,铁路的前景也黯淡。但我愿意押下大笔钱——确切说是 340 亿美元[笑声]——赌十年后、二十年后、五十年后,会有越来越多的货物通过铁路运输,这对国家更好,对伯灵顿北方公司的股东也更好。

BUFFETTYou know, when I was six, I wanted a railroad set and my dad didn't get it. [APPLAUSE] You think about it. The railroads are tied to the future prosperity of this country. You can't move a railroad to China or India or anyplace else. We start out with the premise, and I can't think of a more sound premise, that there will be more people in this country, 10, 20, 30 years from now. They will be moving more and more goods back and forth to each other. And you have the most environmentally friendly and the most cost-efficient way of doing that on the railroads. The Burlington Northern last year moved -- on average it moved a ton of freight, 470 miles on one gallon of diesel. That is far, far more efficient than what takes place over the highways. You have the situation where overall they use 1/3 less fuel, they put far fewer pollutants into the atmosphere than trucks will. One train will supplant 280 trucks are so on the road. So the rails are in tune with the future. I like the West. I like the 30-some-thousand miles of roadway that Burlington has. And, you know, if this country has a poor future, the rails have a poor future. I'm willing to bet a lot of money, 34 billion to be specific -- [LAUGHTER] -- on the fact that 10 years from now, 20 years from now, 50 years from now, there will be more and more goods being moved by rail and better for the country and it will be better for the shareholders of the Burlington Northern.

贝基好的。[掌声] 下一个问题。

BECKYOK. [APPLAUSE] Another question.

提问者你好,我叫乔什·波特,来自马萨诸塞州北雷丁,今年大一。两位能来这里,深感荣幸。我们刚刚经历了希望是我们一生中最严重的金融危机。我知道这让很多美国人夜不能寐,担心自己的未来。那么,有什么事情——如果有的话——会让你们二位夜不能寐?

QUESTIONHi. My name is Josh Porter. I'm a first-year from North Reading, Massachusetts. It's an honor to have you both here. So we just went through the worst financial crisis of hopefully all of our lifetime. And I know it keeps a lot of Americans up at night, you know, worrying about their future. What, if anything, keeps either of you up at night?

巴菲特我努力让自己的生活做到没有任何事能让我失眠。[掌声] 我不想像个瘟疫时期的殡仪馆工作人员那样说话,但去年秋天对我来说确实相当令人兴奋。[笑声] 我不是希望这种事发生在任何人身上,但确实有一些东西在抛出。有些机会摆在我们面前,而这些机会一两年之前根本不存在。所以我确实不——我不想让自己处于杠杆或类似的状态,那才会让我睡不着觉。我并不担心我们的经济体系最终能否存活下来。我们当时确实是一团糟,这一点毫无疑问。但工厂没消失,玉米地没消失,美国人民的才华没消失,下一个比尔·盖茨那样的创新能力也没消失。这个国家会好起来的,我知道这一点。我们只需要把事情理顺,而现在我们正在这个过程中大步前进。

BUFFETTI try to live my life so nothing keeps me up at night. [APPLAUSE] I don't like to sound, you know, like a mortician during an epidemic or anything, but last fall was really quite exciting for me. [LAUGHTER] I don't wish it on anybody, but there were things being offered. There are opportunities for us to do things that didn't exist a year or two earlier. So I really don't -- I don't want to be in a position where I am leveraged or something of the sort that does keep me up at night. I did not worry about the ultimate survival of our economic system. We were messed up. Wasn't any question about that. But the plants haven't gone away. The cornfields haven't gone away. The talent of the American people hasn't gone away. The innovativeness of the next Bill Gates hasn't gone away. This country was going to do fine. I knew that. We just had to get things straightened out. And we're well on the way to having that happen.

贝基比尔,你刚才提到——[掌声] 你刚才提到之前给沃伦打了电话,他说,“是啊,我们或许该稍微担点心了。” 那天晚上你是不是熬夜在担心这事?

BECKYBill, you mentioned -- [APPLAUSE] You mentioned before that you called Warren and he said, ‘Yeah, we should maybe be a little worried.’ Did you stay up late that night worrying about it?

比尔·盖茨不会。幸运的是,金融体系有很好的领导力,内在包含了很多自我修正机制。我认为有几件事可能会出乎我们意料,而且是负面的。比如,未来 20 年内发生重大恐怖事件,那会是个大负面。还有一场大流行病——实际上我们现在就正经历一种新型流感的快速传播。幸运的是,它的实际影响非常轻微,远低于任何此类事件的典型水平。所以你得留意少数几个这样的异常事件。这就是我要指出的两点。但压倒性地看,体系的其余部分,你知道,是内嵌了自我修正机制的。长期来看,我不至于为此失眠,但确实担忧的一点是:我们的教育体系,尤其是 K 到 12 年级部分,没有像应有的那样大幅改善。这是一个关乎机会的重要体系,也是一个关乎国家经济实力的重要体系,既然它改善得不多,那就有几分可怕,需要更多关注。

GATESNo. The financial system, fortunately, good leadership has a lot of self-correction built into it. I think there are a few things that could surprise us that are negative. You know, big terrorist event sometime in the next 20 years, that would be a big negative. And a pandemic, which we're actually having in terms of the rate of spread of a new flu, one right now. And fortunately, its actual impact is very modest, way less than any such thing. So you have to keep your eye out for a few outliers like that. Those are the two that I would point to. But overwhelmingly, the rest of the system, you know, there is self-correction built into it. The long-term thing that I don't lose sleep over but I worry about is that we do have our education system, particularly the K through 12 part, not improving as much as we should. And it's an important system for opportunity, it's an important system for the economic strength of the country, and since it hasn't improved that much, that's a bit scary and needs a lot more attention.

巴菲特贝基,如果你有一座非常棒的农场,而且你清楚未来 50 年里会有 5 年干旱、45 年丰收,你不会因为想到那 5 年干旱就动弹不得。你会明白,你拥有的这套系统从长远来看运作得非常好——我们的美国经济系统正是如此。

BUFFETTBecky, if you had a wonderful farm and you knew the next 50 years there would be five droughts but there would be 45 good years, I mean, you would not become paralyzed thinking about the five drought years. You would recognize that you've got a system that works very well over time, and that's our American economic system.

贝基既然我们刚经历了一个干旱年,这是否意味着——

BECKYSince we just had the drought year, does that make it less likely for the --

巴菲特不。如果你在哥伦比亚大学学统计学,你会知道——(掌声)

BUFFETTNo. If you study statistics at Columbia, you'd recognize that -- [APPLAUSE]

贝基好的。我们来接下一个问题。就在这儿,后面那位。

BECKYOK. Let's get to another question. Right back here.

提问者我是彼得·劳伦斯,哥伦比亚大学的一年级学生。首先,非常感谢两位能来到这里。巴菲特先生,近期市场涨幅是历史性的。似乎很多人质疑当前价格水平能否持续。您认为这轮上涨是实实在在的吗?

QUESTIONI'm Peter Lawrence, first-year student from Columbia. And, first of all, thank you both so much for coming here. Mr. Buffett, the recent runup in the market has been historic. And it seems that many people question the sustainability of the current price level. Do you think the rally is for real?

巴菲特明天会发生什么,嗯?(掌声)我给你举个例子。我 1942 年买了第一只股票,当时 11 岁。在那之前一直在磨蹭,后来才认真起来。(笑声)你们觉得 1942 年以来,市场表现最好的是哪一年?从 1942 年到现在,按日历年度算的最佳年份。嗯,你们没理由知道答案。答案是 1954 年。1954 年,道琼斯指数加上股息,涨了 50%。但你看 1954 年,那一年大部分时间我们处在衰退中。衰退从 1953 年 7 月开始,失业率在 1954 年 9 月见顶。所以直到 1954 年 11 月,就业数据都没出现回升。而那段时间失业率翻了一倍还多。但却是市场最好的年份。所以,看着今天的经济状况来决定买进或卖出股票,是个天大的错误。你应该根据自己花的钱能换来多少、在任何给定时刻能获得的长期价值,来决定买进还是卖出。下周无关紧要,因为下周只是又远了一周。重要的是有正确的长期眼光,评估你买入的企业。然后,糟糕的市场或糟糕的经济就成了你的朋友。我在买入伯灵顿北方铁路时,根本不在乎下周、下个月、甚至明年铁路货运量会不会大幅回升,或者诸如此类的事。像这样的时期给了我做事的机会。等待是愚蠢的。我写过一篇文章:如果你等到看见知更鸟,春天就已经结束了。

BUFFETTWhat's going to happen tomorrow, huh? [APPLAUSE] Let me give you an illustration. I bought my first stock in 1942. I was 11. I had been dillydallying up until then. I got serious. [LAUGHTER] What do you think the best year for the market has been since 1942? Best calendar year from 1942 to the present time. Well, there's no reason for you to know the answer. The answer is 1954. In 1954, the Dow … dividends was up 50%. Now if you look at 1954, we were in a recession a good bit of that time. The recession started in July of '53. Unemployment peaked in September of '54. So until November of '54 you hadn't seen an uptick in the employment figure. And the unemployment figure more than doubled during that period. It was the best year there was for the market. So it's a terrible mistake to look at what's going on in the economy today and then decide whether to buy or sell stocks based on it. You should decide whether to buy or sell stocks based on how much you're getting for your money, long-term value you're getting for your money at any given time. And next week doesn't make any difference because next week, next week is going to be a week further away. And the important thing is to have the right long-term outlook, evaluate the businesses you are buying. And then a terrible market or a terrible economy is your friend. I don't care, in making a purchase of the Burlington Northern, I don't care whether next week, or next month or even next year there is a big revival in car loadings or any of that sort of thing. A period like this gives me a chance to do things. It's silly to wait. I wrote an article. If you wait until you see the robin, spring will be over.

贝基但与此同时——(掌声)沃伦,过去一年里你反复说过,投资美国就是押注美国的未来。但你们也在海外投资,比如投资了比亚迪这样的公司。你们俩都在中国待过一段时间。机会更多是在海外,还是就在美国本土?

BECKYBut at the same time -- [APPLAUSE] Warren, you have repeatedly said over the last year that investing in American areas is a bet on the future of America. But you have also invested overseas, companies like BYD . You both spent some time in China. Are there more opportunities overseas or right here in America?

巴菲特我在美国看到的机会更多。我们是最大的经济体,我们也在寻找大交易。不过,能找到一些机会,不管是中国的,还是以色列的,像伊斯卡那样的,我也挺高兴。美国的机会比任何其他地方都多。

BUFFETTI see more opportunity in the United States. We're the biggest economy and we're looking for big deals. But I am delighted to find something, you know, whether it's in China or whether it's in Israel, like Iscar or whatever it may be. There are more opportunities in the United States than anyplace else.

贝基比尔,你同意这一点吗?

BECKYBill, you agree with that?

比尔·盖茨嗯,是的。全球受益,美国也受益。不可能出现世界其他地方都表现糟糕、唯独美国一枝独秀的情况。我们的命运与开放贸易、全球创新紧密相连。你想想,就连伯灵顿北方铁路上跑的那些货,有些可能就来自其他国家。

GATESWell, yes. The U.S. benefits as the globe benefits. You're not going to have a case where the rest of the world does poorly and the U.S. does well. Our fate is tied to open trade, innovation everywhere. You know, even the Burlington, some of the stuff that's on those railroads might come from other countries.

巴菲特我希望如此。

BUFFETTI hope so.

比尔·盖茨中国正在发生的一切令人振奋。这对我们来说是件大好事。如果我们有机会选择——是让全体中国人都像我们一样富裕,还是让他们停留在 1979 年那样的贫困水平——那答案显然是,让他们成为和我们一样的消费者和发明家。他们离那个目标还有很长的路要走。但中国人口规模巨大,那里正涌现出许多了不起的事情。而且,许多我们曾认为是烂摊子、送去大量援助的国家——比如巴西、墨西哥或泰国——现在都成了重要贡献者。世界不再仅仅依赖美国,这是好事。但美国仍是能源革命最可能发生的地方,信息技术革命也还会继续。人们期望我们引领方向。

GATESIt's exciting to see what's going on in China. It's great for us. If we had a choice for all the people in China to be as rich as we are versus be as poor as they were back in 1979, we'd be way better off to say, you know, let's have them be consumers and inventors just like we are. They are a long ways away from that. But they are a large enough population that great things are happening there. And, you know, many countries that we thought of as basket cases and we sent lots of aid to, like Brazil or Mexico or Thailand, are now big contributors. So it's good for the world that it's not as dependent just on the U.S. But the U.S. is where the energy revolution is likely to happen, the IT revolution will continue. We are expected to lead the way.

贝基好。我们马上回来,接听下一个问题。[掌声] 顺便说一句,如果给你个机会,你想不想让沃伦·巴菲特或比尔·盖茨当你的职业顾问?好吧,等我们回来之后,这个环节就会上演。[掌声]

BECKYAll right. We're going to be back with another question in just a moment. [APPLAUSE] And by the way, if you have the chance, how would you like to have Warren Buffett or Bill Gates as your career counselor? Well, we're going to have that when we come right back. [APPLAUSE]

巴菲特的 10 万美元邀约

BUFFETT'S $100,000 OFFER

贝基·奎克欢迎回来,各位。我们还有更多问题要问比尔·盖茨和沃伦·巴菲特。我们正在逐一回答,但继续提问吧。这边有一位观众要提问。

BECKYWelcome back, everybody. We have more questions for Bill Gates and Warren Buffett. And we are running through them, but let's keep them going. Got a question right over here.

提问我叫妮可拉·布雷利,是二年级学生。我的问题想问盖茨先生。你每天做的最重要的事是什么?

QUESTIONMy name is Erica Braley and I am a second-year student. My question is for Mr. Gates. What is the most important thing you do every day?

比尔·盖茨嗯……[笑声][掌声] 我做的事挺杂的。我觉得大量阅读很重要,而且要持续学习。我在基金会里涉足很多新领域,教育、健康。我特别爱读书。所以我想,用这些知识武装自己,然后跟那些扎根在这些领域的人坐下来,一起头脑风暴——这才帮我找到对的人,确保我了解状况。所以我猜,我会说学习是最关键的东西。[笑声][掌声]

GATESHmmm. [LAUGHTER] [APPLAUSE] Well, I do a lot of variety. I think reading a lot, you know, and continuing to learn. I'm in a lot of new areas in the Foundation, education, health. And I love reading a lot. So I think, you know, arming myself with that knowledge and sitting down with people who live the topic and brainstorming with them, that's what helps me back the right people and make sure I know what's going on. So I guess I'd say learning is what is the key thing. [LAUGHTER] [APPLAUSE]

贝基刚才那是什么?我们来看下一个问题。

BECKYWhat was that? Let's get to another question.

提问巴菲特先生、盖茨先生,感谢你们今天来到这里。我叫贾斯汀·海曼,现在是 MBA 二年级学生,眼看就要毕业了,我想请教一下,你们踏入现实世界后,MBA 没有为你们准备好的一件事是什么?

QUESTIONMr. Buffett, Mr. Gates, thank you for being here today. My name is Justin Heyman, I'm a second-year MBA, as I get ready to graduate, I was wondering, what's the one thing that your MBA didn't prepare you for when you got out into the real world?

巴菲特嗯,我觉得——它为我打下了很好的基础,不是整个学位,而是某些教授,为我进入想进的领域做了很好的准备。我从六七岁起就知道自己对投资感兴趣,像我之前说过的。所以我很幸运,很早就找到了自己热衷的事。在哥伦比亚大学,我有这两位杰出的教授,光是跟他们在一起——我读过他们写过的所有东西。所以我不是在获取大量增量知识,而是受到了激励。他们对我特别好,待我如子,常带我出去吃饭。本·格雷厄姆也一样。这给了我自信。它直接把我推入一个我本来就热爱的领域,这些教授相信我,给了我极大的顺风。[掌声] 但让我补充一点,针对 MBA 的情况。现在,我愿意花 10 万美元买你们任何一个人未来收入的 10%。所以,谁想在会后找我聊聊——[笑声][掌声] 如果这是真的,你现在就是个百万美元的资产,对吧,如果你 10% 的价值是 10 万美元?你们很多人——当然我毕业时肯定也是——可以通过学习沟通技巧来提升自己。这不是课堂上教的东西。我后来实际上还去上了戴尔·卡耐基的公开演讲课。但如果你用更好的沟通技巧把自己的价值提升 50%,那在资本价值上就是另外 50 万美元。课后找我,我付你 15 万。[掌声]

BUFFETTWell, I was -- it prepared me very well, not the whole degree, but specific professors prepared me very well for what I wanted to go into. I knew I was interested in investing, like I say, from the time I was six or seven years of age. So I was lucky that I found what turned me on early on. And I had these two marvelous professors here at Columbia that just being around -- I had read all the stuff they had written. So it wasn't I was acquiring lots of incremental knowledge but I was getting inspired. They were terrific for me. They treated me like a son. They would take me out to dinner. Ben Graham did the same thing for me. So it gave me confidence in myself. It just propelled me into a field I already love with a terrific tailwind from these professors that believed in me. [APPLAUSE] But let me add one point because -- to the MBA situation. Right now, I would pay $100,000 for 10% of the future earnings of any of you. So anybody that wants to see me after this is over -- [LAUGHTER] [APPLAUSE] If that's true, you are a million-dollar asset right now, right, if 10% of you is worth 100,000? You could improve -- many of you, and I certainly could have when I got out, just in terms of learning communication skills. You know, it's not something that is taught. I actually went to a Dale Carnegie course later on in terms of public speaking. But if you improve your value 50% by having better communication skills, that's another $500,000 in terms of capital value. See me after the class and I'll pay you 150-thousand. [APPLAUSE]

贝基沃伦,你提到了你在这里读书的时光。我不知道你能不能看到后面的屏幕,但我们确实翻出了你的年鉴,还从 1951 年的年鉴里偷了一张你的照片。

BECKYWarren, you bring up your time here. I don't know if you can see the monitors back here, but we did take a look at your yearbook and steal your picture from 1951 year.

巴菲特哎呀。

BUFFETTUh-oh.

贝基·奎克我想后面有个画面。你瞧。[掌声]

QUICKI think we have a picture in the back. There you are. [APPLAUSE]

巴菲特我不会为那家伙的 10% 支付 10 万美元。[笑声]

BUFFETTI don't think I'd pay $100,000 for 10% of that guy. [LAUGHTER]

贝基这边还有一个问题。

BECKYAnother question right here.

巴菲特嗨,我叫奥列格·奇什,是这里 MBA 二年级的学生。我的问题问盖茨先生。你显然付出了巨大努力才达到今天的成就。你能不能谈一谈,纯粹的运气在你成功中扮演了什么角色?

BUFFETTHi. My name is Oleg Cheesh. I'm a second-year MBA student here. My question is for Mr. Gates. You obviously worked very hard to get to where you are. Could you reflect on what role pure luck played in your success?

比尔·盖茨嗯,我在很多方面都很幸运。幸运的是我天生具备某些技能。幸运的是我的父母创造了一个环境,他们乐于分享自己的工作,让我想买多少书就买多少。幸运的是我赶上了好时机。微处理器的发明是一件意义深远的事。结果发现,只有像我这样年轻、正好关注它的人,才能理解它的意义所在。而且我一直痴迷于写软件。结果证明,这正是让微处理器发挥惊人影响力的关键缺失部分。所以,无论从时机、技能组合,还是我有幸遇到的一些人来说——你知道,遇到沃伦,和他交谈,向他学习——我觉得一个人一辈子能有这么多幸运,确实不寻常。但这一直是我能有所成就的一个主要因素。

GATESWell, I was lucky in many ways. I was lucky to be born with certain skills. I was lucky to have parents that created an environment where they shared what they were working on and let me buy as many books as I wanted to. And I was lucky in terms of the timing. The invention of the microprocessor was something profound. And it turned out only if you were kind of young and looking at that could you appreciate what it meant. And then I had been obsessed with writing software. It turned out that was the key missing thing that would allow the microprocessor to have this incredible impact. So in timing and skill set, in some of the people I was lucky enough to meet, you know, meeting Warren and talking to him, learning from him, it is unusual to have so much luck in one life, I think. But it's been a major factor in what I have been able to do.

贝基好的。这里还有一位股东提问。

BECKYAll right. Another question right here.

提问者你好,我叫尤金·奎因,来自伊利诺伊州迪尔菲尔德。我是哥伦比亚商学院的一年级学生。我想向巴菲特先生和盖茨先生两位提问。在你们既专业又独特的朋友关系中,你们最欣赏对方哪一点?

QUESTIONHello, my name is Ugin Quinn, I'm from Deerfield, Illinois. And I'm a first-year student at Columbia Business School. I'd like to direct my question to both Mr. Buffett and Mr. Gates. In the context of both your professional relationship and unique friendship, what do you admire most about each other?

贝基好。谁想先回答这个问题?(笑声)

BECKYOK. Who wants to take that one first? [LAUGHTER]

巴菲特我的运动天赋。这么说吧。(掌声)嗯,要我说,我最佩服比尔的一点,是他对自己积累的财富该怎么用的看法。我是说,就像他说的,他非常幸运。他出生在一个对的国家,赶上了对的年代,大脑的配置也对,诸如此类。说到底,他知道自己是这个了不起的社会的受益者,不是所有人都像他和我一样抽到上上签。所以他呢——他有一个信念,就是世界上每一个人的生命都是平等的,他不光用钱来兑现这个信念,还搭上了自己的时间。还有他妻子梅琳达,也搭上了自己的时间。他们俩真的打算,你知道,把后半辈子差不多全花在——拿钱、拿才华、拿精力、拿想象力,去改善全球 65 亿人的生活。这才是我最佩服的地方。(掌声)

BUFFETTMy athletic ability. Say that. [APPLAUSE] Well, I would say what I really most admire about Bill is the view he has about what he should do with the wealth he's accumulated. I mean, as he said, he was very lucky. He was born in the right country, at the right time, with the right wiring and all of that sort of thing. In the end, he knows he's a beneficiary of a terrific society, and not everybody gets the long straws like he and I did. So he is -- and he has this view that every human life worldwide is the equivalent of every other human life, and he's backing it up not only with money, but backing it up with his time. And his wife, Melinda, is backing it up with her time. And they are really going to spend, you know, the last half of their lives or so using both money, talent, energy, imagination, all improving the lives of 6.5 billion people around the world. That's what I admire the most. [APPLAUSE]

贝基比尔。

BECKYBill.

比尔·盖茨面对沃伦,你可以挑出很多值得学习的东西——比如他的正直,为全世界树立了榜样。还有他的幽默感。但我想我会选他教人的渴望,那种把复杂的事情用简单的形式讲出来,让人们能理解并从他的全部经验、他所有关于世界运作的模型中获得好处的渴望。他热爱教学。他通过跟学生会面来教,在他的年度公开信里教,在电话上跟我聊天时也在教。这是我极为钦佩的、堪称天赋的才能。(掌声)

GATESWith Warren, there are a lot of things you could pick, you know, his integrity as an example for the world. His sense of humor. But I think I'd pick his desire to teach, his desire to teach things that are complex and put them in a simple form so that people can understand and get the benefit of all his experience, all his models of how the world works. He loves to teach. And he does it meeting with students. He does it in his annual newsletter. He does it when he's talking to me on the phone. It's a real gift that I admire incredibly. [APPLAUSE]

贝基我们再接一个这里的问题。

BECKYLet's take another question right here.

提问者巴菲特先生,盖茨先生,感谢二位今晚来到这里。我是易卜拉欣·多利,今年是哥伦比亚大学的一年级新生,我从葡萄牙来。我想问二位一个问题。你们两位在职业生涯早期就很清楚自己这辈子想做什么。对那些还有些迷茫的人,你们有什么建议?

QUESTIONMr. Buffett, Mr. Gates, thank you for being here tonight. I am Ibrahim Dolly, first year here at Columbia. I came from Portugal. I have a question for both of you. You both knew early in your careers what you wanted to do in your life. What advice do you have for those of us who are a little bit unclear?

比尔·盖茨找到你充满热情又擅长的事情,有时候要花上好几年的时间。我觉得我和沃伦很幸运,差不多算是撞上了。我当时都不确定那是不是软件,我是挺着迷的,但当时也不清楚这能不能成为一份职业。等到真成了职业,那感觉太棒了。我觉得多数人到了二十多岁,得去尝试一些不同的经历。有些事情会让你接触到很多不同的行业、很多不同的工作机会。我觉得你可以把最初几份工作优化成用来获取这种接触机会。然后等到你发现那个你想为之狂热的东西,就一头扎进去。

GATESWell, finding the thing that you are passionate about and that you are good at can sometimes take a period of years. I think Warren and I were lucky we kind of ran into it. I wasn't even sure it was software. I was kind of obsessed with it but then it wasn't clear it could be a career. When that happened, it was great. I think most other people get into their 20s and have to try out some different experiences. And some things will expose you to a lot of different businesses, a lot of different work opportunities. And I think you can make your first few jobs optimized for getting that exposure. And then when you want it, see the thing that you want to be fanatical about and just jump on to that.

贝基好的。

BECKYAll right.

巴菲特首先,我要说,嫁对人或娶对人。(笑声)我这话是认真的。(掌声)这会让你的生活发生天翻地覆的变化。它会改变你的志向,各种事情都会变。你嫁给谁或娶了谁,这件事极其重要。除此之外,我会说,去做那些你身处我的位置、钱对你来说毫无意义时会做的事。我今年 79 岁,仍然每天工作。这就是我比世界上任何事都更想做的事。你越早能在人生中接近这种状态,你的人生就会越有乐趣,而且你实际做得也会越好。所以,不要被“要赚够最后一块钱”之类的想法驱动。然后,如果可能,去为你钦佩的机构或个人工作。我的意思是,我当年主动提出给本·格雷厄姆打工,因为在我这个行业里,没有比他更让我钦佩的人了。我不在乎他给我多少薪水。1954 年他终于雇了我时,我从奥马哈搬到了纽约,直到拿到第一张工资支票,我才知道自己的薪水是多少。但我知道,我就想为本·格雷厄姆工作。我知道,我每天早上都会从床上跳起来,对自己要做的事充满兴奋;晚上回到家时,我会比早上更聪明。去一个让你兴奋的工作岗位,跟着一个让你兴奋的人,进入一个让你兴奋的机构。(掌声)

BUFFETTFirst of all, I'd say marry the right person. [LAUGHTER] And I'm serious about that. [APPLAUSE] It will make more difference in your life. It will change your aspiration, all kind of things. It's enormously important who you marry. Beyond that, I would say that do what you would do if you were in my position, where the money means nothing to you. At 79, ... I work every day. And it's what I want to do more than anything else in the world. The closer you can come to that early on in your life, you know the more fun you're going to have in life and really the better you're going to do. So don't be driven where you think the last dollar is presently or anything of that sort. And then also go to work, if possible, for an organization or an individual that you admire. I mean I offered to go to work for Ben Graham because there was nobody I admired more in the business than him. I didn't care what he paid me. When he finally did hire me in 1954, I moved from Omaha to New York and I didn't know what I was getting paid until I got my first paycheck. But I knew I wanted to work for Ben Graham. And I knew I would jump out of bed every morning and be excited about what I would do and I would go home at night smarter than I was in the morning. Go to work at a job that turns you on and a person that turns you on and institution. [APPLAUSE]

贝基别走开,我们马上回来。

BECKYStay right here. We will be right back.

为什么现金不再是“王者”

WHY CASH ISN'T 'KING'

贝基好了,同学们继续上课。我们继续和两位最伟大的资本家在一起,这里是投资 101 课程,回到更多学生的问题。我们先从这边开始吧?

BECKYAll right. Class continues, everybody. We are back with the two greatest capitalists out there with Investing 101, back to more students’ questions. Why don't we start right here?

亚当·范达姆(Adam Van Dam),我是一年级新生。这个问题问巴菲特先生。如果收购北伯林顿铁路是你长期买入并永久持有投资哲学的一个体现,那么我想知道,金融危机是否以任何方式影响到了这套哲学或者你的投资流程?

QUESTION: My name is Adam Van Dam and I'm a first-year student here. This question is for Mr. Buffett. If the Burlington Northern acquisition is any indication of your long-term buy and hold forever investment philosophy, I am wondering if the financial crisis has impacted that philosophy or your investment process in any way?

巴菲特没有,一点都没变。我们就是喜欢这样的产品。干这种事算不算无耻?[掌声] 这个品牌从 1886 年起步,经历了大大小小所有风浪。今天,全球会有 16 亿份 8 盎司装的可口可乐产品被喝掉,明年还会更多。我们就想和拥有持久竞争优势、管理层既合得来又信得过的企业打交道,价格合适就下手。这一点,连十分之一度都没变过。顺便说一句,我们还拥有鲜果布衣,不过我就不展示产品了。[掌声]

BUFFETTNo. It hasn't changed at all. We like products like this. How is this for shameless products? [APPLAUSE] This started in 1886. It's gone through all of these events. And the end will be 1.6 billion eight-ounce servings of Coca-Cola products come today and there will be more next year. We want to be in business with a durable competitive advantage with managements we like and trust and do them at a price we like. It hasn't changed a 1/10 of a degree. Incidentally, we own Fruit of the Loom , too, but I'm not going to do a product. [APPLAUSE]

贝基好的。我们下一个问题,就在这儿。

BECKYOK. Our next question right here.

布赖恩·西德鲍克尔你好,我是布赖恩·西德鲍克尔,二年级学生。巴菲特先生,很高兴再次见到你。上个月我去奥马哈参观了,感谢你招待我们。我的问题是,对于遵循格雷厄姆和多德投资理念的个人投资者,你会建议他们当下如何配置资本?

QUESTIONHi, I'm Brian Seedabalker. I'm a second-year student. Mr. Buffett, it's great to see you again. I was on the trip to Omaha last month. Thank you for hosting us. My question is, how would you recommend an individual investor who follows the Graham and Dodd philosophy to allocate their capital today?

巴菲特这取决于他们是否要做主动投资者。格雷厄姆区分了防御型投资者和进取型投资者,诸如此类。如果你打算在投资上花大量时间,我建议尽可能多看各种东西,你会找到一些便宜货。找到之后,你必须行动。这跟 1950 年、1951 年我来这儿时相比,一点都没变。余生也不会变。你只需要翻开书页。我从学校毕业后,把穆迪手册那一万多页翻了两遍,挨个找公司。你得自己去找。世界不会把好交易送到你面前,你得自己发现。这需要花相当多的时间。所以,如果你不打算那么做,只打算做个被动投资者,那我建议你长期坚持投资指数基金。我可以告诉你们一点:现金是最糟糕的投资。所有人都在说什么现金为王之类的。你们大多数人看上去也不像现金多到压身的样子。[笑声] 现金会随着时间推移越来越不值钱,而好企业会越来越值钱。你不想为它们出价太高,所以在出价上必须有点纪律。但该做的事是找到一家好企业,然后坚持持有。

BUFFETTWell, it depends whether they are going to be an active investor. Graham distinguished between the defensive and the enterprising and that. So if you are going to spend a lot of time on investment, you know I just advise looking at as many things as possible and you will find some bargains. And when you find them, you have to act. It doesn't -- it hasn't changed at all since I was here in 1950, 1951. And it won't change the rest of my life. You start turning pages. When I got out of school, I turned every page in Moody's 10,000-some pages twice, looking for companies. And you have to find them yourself. The world isn't going to tell you about great deals. You have to find them yourself. And that takes a fair amount of time. So if you are not going to do that, if you are just going to be a passive investor, then I just advise an index fund more consistently over a long period of time. The one thing I will tell you is the worst investment you can have is cash. Everybody is talking about cash being king and all that sort of thing. Most of you don't look like you are overburdened with cash anyway. [LAUGHTER] Cash is going to become worth less over time. But good businesses are going to become worth more over time. And you don't want to pay too much for them so you have to have some discipline about what you pay. But the thing to do is find a good business and stick with it.

贝基那是不是意味着你认为我们已经挺过了最艰难的时期?你之前也一直把现金储备挂在嘴边。

BECKYDoes that mean you think we are through the roughest times? You had always kept the cash word around, too.

巴菲特我们一直留够现金,所以晚上睡得很踏实,根本不用担心。但这并不是因为我喜欢拿现金当投资。长期来看,现金是很差的投资。可你总得留够现金,确保别人没法替你做主——本质上就是这个道理。最糟糕的金融恐慌已经过去了。金融恐慌或多或少引发的经济余波还在。它会结束的。我不知道是明天、下周、下个月结束,还是一年以后。但它不会永远持续下去。坐在那儿试图抄底,去年 3 月就有人这么干,结果失业率底部没到,商业底部没到,但股票底部已经到了。别因为觉得明天能找到更便宜的东西,就把今天不错的机会给放过了。

BUFFETTWe always keep enough cash around so I feel very comfortable and don't worry about sleeping at night. But it's not because I like cash as an investment. Cash is a bad investment over time. But you always want to have enough so that nobody else can determine your future essentially. The worst -- the financial panic is behind us. The economic spillout which came to some extent from that financial panic is still with us. It will end. I don't know if it will end tomorrow or next week or next month. Or maybe a year. But it won't go on forever. And to sit around and try and pick the bottom, people were trying to do that last March and the bottom hadn't come in unemployment and the bottom hadn't come in business but the bottom had come in stocks. Don't pass up something that's attractive today because you think you will find something way more attractive tomorrow.

贝基这里还有一个问题。

BECKYAnother question right here.

提问者巴菲特先生、盖茨先生,我叫安托瓦妮特·杰纳维芙,是行政 MBA 一年级学生。我其实在高盛工作,所以谢谢你们的投资。(掌声)

QUESTIONMr. Buffett and Mr. Gates, my name is Antionette Genevieve. I am a first-year executive MBA student. And I actually work at Goldman Sachs, so thank you for your investment. [APPLAUSE]

巴菲特你怎么不去上班呢?[笑声][掌声]

BUFFETTWhy aren't you at work? [LAUGHTER] [APPLAUSE]

提问者我的问题是,我想听听你们两位的看法——把投资替代能源作为发展经济、让它重回正轨的手段。

QUESTIONMy question to you is I'd like both of your thoughts on the investment of alternative energy as for developing our economy and getting it back on track.

贝基比尔,你之前提到过这一点。

BECKYBill, you touched on this earlier.

比尔嗯,想法太多太多了。多到我们可以说,其中大部分最后都会走不通。你知道,太阳能热发电、光伏发电、核能——核能会经历一波复兴,看看能不能解决成本难题。作为一个国家,我们希望确保所有这些技术都能获得大量的研发投入和监管支持,因为其中某个技术将来某天能给我们带来更便宜的电力,还不会造成任何问题。我们不知道到底是哪一个。而且我们在这些领域的研发投入还没有达到我期望的规模。投入确实不少,但我认为政府政策可以推动得更多。不过,这个领域本身带有某种跟风的性质。当大量资金集中涌向一个领域时,投进去的钱会非常巨大。而整体资本回报率往往相当可观。汽车行业在其鼎盛时期是一场灾难。航空业也是,甚至软件行业也一样——因为人们已经忘了那些非微软的软件公司到今天早已不复存在了。当某个东西很热的时候,就会形成一种泡沫。所以,能源领域,你得格外小心,确保它确实具备了合理的成本结构,而不是仅靠补贴一路推着走,而且科学上还会有意外发现。所以这是个很热门的领域,但不一定是个好的投资领域。

BILLWell, there are many, many ideas. And there's enough that we can say most of them will turn out to be dead ends. You know, the solar-thermal, solar-electric, nuclear is going to go through some of the revival and see if it can solve some of its cost challenges. As a country, we want to make sure all of those get lots of R&D and regulatory enablement because one of them is going to give us much cheaper power without causing any problem. We don't know which one it is. And we don't have quite as much R&D going into those things as I'd like to see. We have quite a bit, but I think the government policies could drive for more. But it is one of these areas that is somewhat faddish in nature. When you have a lot of energy focusing on a field, the amount of money that goes in is very large. And the overall return on capital is often quite large. The car industry in its heyday was a disaster. The airline industry, even the software industry because people don't remember all the non-Microsofts that don't exist until today. When something is hot, you get kind of a bubble. So energy, you're going to have to be a bit careful to make sure it's one that's really got its cost structure in line and it's not just being pushed along by subsidies and there will be scientific surprises. So a very hot area, but not necessarily a good area for investment.

贝基好。我们暂时先聊到这儿?回来之后,我们继续和比尔·盖茨、沃伦·巴菲特对话。[掌声] 休息之后,我们来聊聊领导力和奥巴马总统。[掌声]

BECKYAll right. Why don't we leave it there for now? When we come back, we will have more with Bill Gates and Warren Buffett. [APPLAUSE] We'll be talking about leadership and President Obama right after this break. [APPLAUSE]

如何经营一家企业

HOW TO RUN A BUSINESS

贝基好了,欢迎各位回来。我们现在正在哥伦比亚大学,马上要去哥伦比亚商学院的顶层。和我们在一起的是哈伯德院长。[欢呼与掌声] 顺便提一句,格伦·哈伯德不仅是这所商学院的负责人,他还曾在白宫任职,担任经济顾问委员会主席。所以,他不仅了解经济领域的动态,也清楚这些学生的情况。你经常和学生们交流,你想向盖茨先生和巴菲特先生提出什么问题?

BECKYAll right. Welcome back, everybody. We are at Columbia University. And right now we're going straight to the top of Columbia Business School. We are joined by Dean Hubbard. [CHEERS AND APPLAUSE] Glenn Hubbard , by the way, is not only the head of the Business School here, he also happened to serve at the White House where he was chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors. So this is a man who knows not only about what's happening in the economy, but also what's happening with these students. You talk to them all the time. What's the question that you'd like to pose to Mr. Gates and Mr. Buffett?

哈伯德谢谢贝基,也感谢两位今天到场。沃伦,欢迎回家。

HUBBARDThanks, Becky, and thanks to both of you for being here today. And, Warren, welcome home.

巴菲特谢谢。[掌声]

BUFFETTThank you. [APPLAUSE]

哈伯德沃伦,你多年前说过一句话,我一直记着:潮水不退,永远不知道谁在裸泳。这句话当然意味着,知道什么时候会出现低潮也许有些价值。它也说明,了解背景环境是有价值的。我们该如何培养——该如何鼓励那些能理解背景、又能把各个点串起来的商业领袖?

HUBBARDWarren, one thing you said years ago that's always stuck with me is you never know who is swimming naked until the tide goes out. And that, of course, says maybe there's some value in knowing when it's going to be low tide. It also says there's value in knowing context. How do we develop -- how do we encourage business leaders who understand context and connect the dots?

巴菲特嗯,我觉得过去一年他们在这方面学到了很多。有些人永远学不会,你知道。在伯克希尔,我们实际上有 70 多位经理。我想他们中大多数比 15 个月前聪明了不少,但他们在进来之前就已经很聪明了。不过,你知道,我从本·格雷厄姆身上学到的东西——他每个周四下午都会来这里。他其实不需要这么做,你知道。他把拿到的报酬都捐回给了学校,诸如此类。但拥有稳健的原则能带你度过一切。我从格雷厄姆和多德那里学到的基石原则,我根本不需要对它们做任何改动。它们带我走过好时期,也带我走过坏时期。到头来,我不担心它们,因为我知道它们管用。

BUFFETTWell, I think they have learned a lot about that in the last year. Some never learn, you know. At Berkshire, we have actually 70-some managers. I think most of them are a fair amount smarter than they were 15 months ago but they were plenty smart to go in. But, you know, I think that what I learned from a Ben Graham, who came up here every Thursday afternoon. He didn't need to do it, you know. He donated whatever he got paid back to the school and all of that. But having sound principles takes you through everything. And the bedrock principles that really I learned from Graham and Dodd , I haven't had to do anything with them. They take me through good periods. They take me through bad periods. In the end, I don't worry about them because I know they work.

贝基比尔,你认为一位商业领袖最重要的品格是什么?

BECKYBill, what do you think is the most important character for a business leader to have?

比尔·盖茨说来也怪,商业的基本道理其实特别直白——你设法让收入超过成本支出,就是个很简单的减法。但让人意外的是,如果往后推演多年,那些问题——我们的投资做得对不对,面对竞争有没有取得优势,是不是让别人更难替代我们正在做的事情——就复杂了。这类常识性的判断,我觉得得靠经验去积累。我认为,如果你年纪轻轻就能在小规模里亲自上手体会,那是非常好的,因为很多一开始就做大生意的人反而可能在这方面犯难。所以说,基础的东西确实很直接。通过大量阅读,去了解不同行业里什么行得通、什么行不通,我认为这是需要时间慢慢积累的,而商学院那段密集的学习期,能让你抢先一步。

GATESWell, it's surprising that the fundamentals of business are pretty straightforward, you know. You try to take more in income than you spend in cost. That's a pretty straightforward subtraction. But it's surprising in terms of projecting out into the years ahead that, you know, are we making the right investments, are we gaining on the competition, are we making it a little bit harder for people to replace what we're doing? That kind of common sense, I guess you've got to develop it through experience. And I think it's neat if you are young and you can see that in a small scale and be hands on with it because a lot of people who start with large businesses may have a hard time with it. So, you know, the basics are pretty straightforward. Learning how it works and doesn't work in a variety of industries, by reading a lot, I think that's something that comes with time and a business school is an intense period where you can get ahead of the game.

巴菲特我大约每一年半到两年发一次信息给他们。每隔几年他们会收到我的一封信,内容大致是:把这家公司当成你家族未来 100 年唯一能拥有的生意来经营。你不能卖掉它。但每年不要用当季的盈利来衡量它。衡量标准是看这家企业周围的护城河——也就是它随时间推移保持竞争优势的东西——是变宽了还是变窄了。如果你坚持这样做 100 年,结果会非常好。然后我基本上会告诉他们:如果做某件事的理由是“别人都这么做”,那这个理由就不够充分。如果你非得拿这个当理由,那就算了。你做这件事根本没有好理由。永远别用那个理由。

BUFFETTI send one message out every year and a half or two years. They get one letter from me every couple of years. And basically it says, run this business like it's the only business that your family can own for the next 100 years. You can't sell it. But every year don't measure it by the earnings in the quarter that year. Measure it by whether the moat around that business, what gives it competitive advantage over time has widened or narrowed. If you keep doing that for 100 years, it's going to work out very well. Then I tell them basically if the reason for doing something is everybody else is doing it, it's not good enough. If you have to use that as a reason, forget it. You don't have a good reason for doing something. Never use that.

贝基我们来听听学生的提问。[掌声]

BECKYLet's get to some student questions. [APPLAUSE]

提问者巴菲特先生、盖茨先生,能在这里见到你们真是太棒了。非常感谢。我叫卡塔·卡芬卡,是哥伦比亚商学院二年级的 MBA 学生。其实,我的问题跟你们刚才聊的话题有关。我们很多人,还有很多人一般都想成为像你们这样的人物。但能达到这个高度的,其实只有少数人,对吧?那么,你们觉得自己身上有哪些主要特质,让你们跟大多数人区分开来?

QUESTIONMr. Buffett, Mr. Gates, it is absolutely fantastic having you here. Thanks a lot. My name is Kata Cafunka. I am a second-year MBA student here at Columbia. Actually, my question is really related to what you were asking. Many of us and many people in general aspire to become somebody like you. But actually only a few people got that height, right? So what do you think were the major qualities that you have that distinguish you from the majority?

贝基好的。比尔、沃伦,是什么让你们从人群中脱颖而出?

BECKYAll right. Bill, Warren, what makes you stand out from the crowd?

巴菲特有意思的是,比尔和我一起出现的时候,大家总觉得他们干不了比尔干的事,但都觉得我干的事他们也能干。[笑声] [掌声] 但我们俩确实都有激情。我们做自己所做的事,是因为热爱,不是为了发财。我们大概觉得,要是干得好,自然会变富。但你知道,哪怕有人从门缝底下塞面包进来接济我们,我们也会接着干下去。所以,我觉得这种激情至关重要。我很幸运,有几位了不起的老师,尤其有一位极其出色的。生活中有我父亲这位好老师,而职业方面,本·格雷厄姆又给了我另一份宝贵的教导。我很幸运,很早就奠定了正确的基础。之后基本上谁的话我都不听。我每天早上照照镜子,镜子总是赞同我。然后我就走出去,做我认为该做的事。别人怎么想,影响不了我。

BUFFETTIt's always interesting when Bill and I appear together, they don't figure they can do what Bill does, but they know they can do what I do. [LAUGHTER] [APPLAUSE] We did both have a passion. We were doing what we did because we loved it. We weren't doing it to get rich. We probably felt if we did it well, we would get rich. But we'd have done it, you know, if somebody was slipping bread in under the door, you know, to keep us going. And so I think that passion for it is enormously important. I was lucky enough to have a couple of great teachers, particularly one great teacher. I had a great teacher in life in my father. But I had another great teacher in terms of profession in terms of Ben Graham. I was lucky enough to get the right foundation very early on. And then basically I didn't listen to anybody else. I just look in the mirror every morning and the mirror always agrees with me. And I go out and do what I believe I should be doing. And I'm not influenced by what other people think.

贝基好的。我们稍后就来听听比尔对这个问题的回答。[掌声] 广告之后,比尔·盖茨和沃伦·巴菲特继续对话。

BECKYAll right. We'll get to Bill's answer on this in just a minute. [APPLAUSE] Bill Gates and Warren Buffett right after this break.

“相信自己”

'BELIEVE IN YOURSELF'

贝基好的,欢迎回来,各位。欢迎回到课堂。刚才那段休息前,我们一直在等比尔·盖茨的答案。比尔,如果非要选一件事,让你觉得自己与众不同,那会是什么?

BECKYAll right. Welcome back, everybody. Welcome back to class. We have left that last break waiting for an answer from Bill Gates. Bill, if you had to pick one thing that makes you stand out from everyone else, what would that be?

比尔·盖茨嗯,我们聊了一些基础的东西——身边要有优秀的人,大量阅读,着眼长远。不过,我也觉得,人生中会有那么几个神奇时刻,你必须对自己有信心。你看沃伦,他当初自己单干时,本可以去某个地方当个分析师。但他知道自己有本事,他要去募集资金,成立自己的合伙公司。我从哈佛退学,跟朋友们说“来为我工作吧”,那里面就有一种不知天高地厚的自信。你会有那么几个这样的时刻,信任自己,说一声“这事能成”——你得抓住这些机会,因为这样的机会可不多。

GATESWell, we talked about some of the basics, having great people around you, reading a lot, thinking long-term. I also think, though, there become a few magic moments where you have to have confidence in yourself. You know, Warren when he set off on his own, he could have gone and taken a job as an analyst somewhere. But he knew that he had the skill, that he was going to raise money and have his own partnership. When I dropped out of Harvard and said to my friends, ‘Come work for me,’ there was a certain kind of brass self-confidence in that. You have a few moments like that where trusting yourself and saying yes, this can come together -- you have to seize on those because not many come along.

贝基好的。非常好的建议。要相信自己。各位,我们要进入快节奏环节了,试着快速回答几个问题。我们直接回到这里。有个问题要问。

BECKYAll right. Great advice. Believe in yourself. Guys, we're going to try and go into a cram session and get in some answers pretty rapid fire. Let's get right back here. We have a question.

提问者我叫尼基·谢尔顿,来自纽约州罗斯维尔。我是本校的二年级学生。首先,我想感谢你们二位是了不起的慈善家。你们为世界做出了巨大贡献。(掌声)我的问题想问巴菲特先生。您最近向盖茨基金会捐赠了一大笔资金。能否跟我们聊聊您当时的考虑是什么,以及您希望这些资金如何被使用。

QUESTIONMy name is Nikki Shelton from Roseville, New York. I'm a second-year student here at the school. First, I just want to thank you guys for being great philanthropists. You guys have done a great job in the world. [APPLAUSE] And my question is for Mr. Buffett. You recently made a huge contribution to the . If you can talk to us a little bit about what your reasoning was and how you'd like to see those funds used.

巴菲特嗯,我之所以把钱捐给他们,前提是我 100% 认同他们的目标——那就是尽最大努力造福最多的人,无论这些人身处何方,是什么性别、肤色、信仰。他们相信每一条生命都是平等的。我擅长赚钱。如果你读过亚当·斯密在 1776 年写的关于劳动分工的那段话,他说,如果你需要接生一个婴儿,别自己学着做,去找产科医生。所以,比尔和梅琳达会比我做得更好,我那几个也有自己基金会的孩子同样比我更擅长这件事。这没问题。我做自己擅长的事,让他们去干他们的事。他们做的事,完全符合我的意愿。

BUFFETTWell, I wouldn't have given it to them unless I was 100% in sync with their objective, which is do the most good for the most people, wherever they may be, male or female, whatever their color, whatever their religion or so on. They believe every human life is equal to every other one. I am very good at making money. If you read what Adam Smith wrote in 1776 about specialization of labor, you know, he said if you need to deliver a baby, don't try to learn to do it yourself. Get an obstetrician. So Bill and Melinda will be better and my children who will also have foundations will be better at doing it than I would be. And that's fine. I'll work at what I'm good at and I'll let them do it. And they are doing it 100% in accord with my wishes.

贝基这边还有一个问题。

BECKYAnother question right here.

提问者巴菲特先生、盖茨先生,欢迎来到哥伦比亚商学院。我叫克里斯,来自宾夕法尼亚州,是一名 MBA 一年级学生。我的问题是,你们最重要的导师有哪些?从他们身上你们学到了什么?

QUESTIONMr. Buffett and Mr. Gates, welcome to Columbia Business School. My name is Chris. I'm from Pennsylvania and I'm a first-year MBA student. My question is, who have been some of your most important mentors? And what lessons have you learned from them?

贝基比尔。

BECKYBill.

比尔·盖茨我受益于我的父亲和母亲,他们树立了很好的榜样。我父亲是个律师,会跟我分享他工作中的事。我有过一些商业伙伴,我们一起学习成长,特别是史蒂夫·鲍尔默。后来我选了沃伦,从他身上我学到了极其多的东西,光听他讲自己如何应对艰难局面、如何做长期思考、如何理解这个世界。如果你有机会和这样的人相处,那真是太好了。

GATESWell, I benefited from my dad and mom who set a great example. My dad was a lawyer and shared what he was doing at work. I have had some business partners that we have learned together, Steve Balmer in particular. And then I pick Warren as somebody I have learned an immense amount from, just hearing his stories of how he dealt with tough situations, how he thought long-term, how he models the world. If you get a chance to spend time with people like that, it's fantastic.

贝基好的。我们马上回来。请留在原地。

BECKYAll right. We will be right back. Stay right here.

盖茨谈苹果的乔布斯与谷歌

GATES ON APPLE'S JOBS AND GOOGLE

贝基好的,准备好了吗?欢迎大家回来。现在真是关键时刻。我们直接开始。你准备好提问了吗?

BECKYAll right. Ready? Welcome back, everybody. This is real crunch time. Let's get right to it. You got it question?

谢谢。我叫史蒂芬·马修斯,是这里的商学院高管项目的学生。感谢两位来访。我的问题关于苹果公司。盖茨先生,能不能请您谈谈,您怎么看史蒂夫·乔布斯作为苹果 CEO 的表现?(笑声)

QUESTIONYeah. Welcome. My name is Steven Matthews. I am in the executive Business School here. Thanks for coming here. My question is on Apple . Mr. Gates, if you could just comment and tell us what your thoughts are on the job Steve Jobs has done as the CEO of Apple. [LAUGHTER]

比尔·盖茨他干得确实非常出色。苹果的生意有点不一样,他们自己做硬件和软件。但乔布斯回到苹果那会儿——其实是收购了他创立的 NeXT 公司才回来的——苹果处境非常艰难。说实话,它当时很可能撑不下去。他带来了团队,带来了对卓越产品和设计的灵感,让苹果重新成为一股推动美好事物的强大力量。能有这样的竞争对手挺棒的。我们给苹果写软件,微软就是这么做的,我们和苹果竞争。但在我合作过的所有行业领袖中,他的启发力是最强的,他拯救了那家公司。

GATESWell, he's done a fantastic job. And Apple is in a bit of a different business where they make hardware and software together. But when Steve was coming back to Apple, which was actually through an acquisition of NeXT that he ran, Apple was in very tough shape. In fact, most likely, it wasn't going to survive. And he brought in a team. He brought in inspiration about great products and design that's made Apple back into being an incredible force in doing good things. And it's, you know, great to have competitors like that. We write software for Apple, Microsoft does. They compete with Apple. But he, of all the leaders in the industry that I have worked with, he showed more inspiration and he saved the company.

贝基好的。该你了。

BECKYOK. Tag, you're it.

提问者谢谢。我叫迈克尔,是第一年的 MBA 学生。这个问题想问盖茨先生。我想知道,您是否觉得谷歌在某种程度上像早期阶段的微软?

QUESTIONThank you. My name is Michael. I'm a first year MBA student. The question is for Mr. Gates. I was wondering if you think Google at all resembles Microsoft during Microsoft's early years.

比尔·盖茨嗯,他们遇到了我们当年面临的一些同样的问题。(笑声)(掌声)这又是一个优秀的竞争对手。他们雇了很多聪明人。在搜索领域,他们已经占据了领先地位——成为这个领域的头号玩家可真是极其赚钱。随着时间的推移,他们可能会遇到一点点竞争。不过,他们是一个很好的例子,说明能发生什么——你知道吗,两个年轻人凑到一起,追逐一个点子,就创造了一个极其巨大的成功。而我们大家,嗯,有希望都在用搜索引擎,可能还不止一种。(笑声)我们都从中受益。

GATESWell, they have some of the same problems we had. [LAUGHTER] [APPLAUSE] It's another fine competitor. They are hiring a lot of smart people. They have gotten into the lead position in search, which is incredibly profitable to be number one in that. They may get a little competition as time goes forward. But they are a great example of what can happen, you know, two young guys who got together, pursued an idea and created a success that's absolutely gigantic. And we all, you know, hopefully use search engines, maybe a variety. [LAUGHTER] And we benefit from that.

贝基就在这里。

BECKYRight here.

提问者你好,我是乔什·奥斯汀,MBA 二年级学生。我的问题是问您,巴菲特先生。像您这样的价值投资者认为,基本面分析,深入的基本面分析,对明智的投资至关重要。然而,您过去几次提到,您曾做出非常迅速的资本配置决策,有时甚至不到五分钟。我想知道究竟是哪些数据让您对自己的决定有信心。

QUESTIONHi, I'm Josh Austin. I'm a second-year MBA student. My question is for you, Mr. Buffett. Value investors, such as yourself, believe that fundamental analysis, deep fundamental analysis is critical to intelligent investing. However, you have said several times in the past that you have made very rapid capital allocation decisions, sometimes in less than five minutes. I was wondering exactly which data gave you confidence in your decision.

巴菲特这个嘛,那是 50 年的准备和 5 分钟的决策。[掌声]

BUFFETTWell, that's 50 years of preparation and five (minutes) of decision making. [APPLAUSE]

贝基你能不能就看一眼电子表格?能不能翻翻一份年报就做出那样的决定?

BECKYCan you just look at the spreadsheet? Can you look at an annual report and make a decision like that?

巴菲特是的。有时候我能。就拿可口可乐来说吧,我先试喝了这款产品 60 年,然后在 1988 年买进它的时候,我看到了几个关键要素——嗯,基本上就是这些东西让天平倾斜了。但好的大决策,根本不用花什么时间。如果花了时间,你就麻烦了。

BUFFETTYeah. Sometimes I can. Just take Coca-Cola, for example. I sampled the product for 60 years and then I saw a couple of key ingredients, you know, that essentially tipped the scale in terms of buying it back in 1988. But the good big decisions, they don't take any time at all. If they take time, you're in trouble.

贝基好的。稍后我们继续与比尔·盖茨和沃伦·巴菲特的对话,广告回来见。

BECKYAll right. We will have more with Bill Gates and Warren Buffett, when we come right back.

如果美国是一只股票……?

IF AMERICA WAS A STOCK...?

贝基好的。欢迎回来,各位。两位先生,今天的最后一个问题。如果美国是一只股票,你会买它吗?比尔。

BECKYAll right. Welcome back, everybody. Gentlemen, last question today. If America was a stock, would you buy it? Bill.

盖茨当然。

GATESYou bet.

贝基沃伦。

BECKYWarren.

巴菲特用保证金买。[笑声]

BUFFETTOn margin. [LAUGHTER]

贝基两位先生,我们非常感谢你们抽空前来。你们太棒了。比尔、沃伦,我们真心感谢你们。各位,让我们给他们热烈鼓掌。[掌声] 也感谢在座的所有人。哥伦比亚大学、商学院、哈伯德院长,谢谢你们各位。我们非常感激。今天太精彩了。我们今天的节目就到这里。我是贝基·奎克,如果你想回看,可以登录……我们很快会再见。

BECKYGentlemen, we want to thank you very much for your time. You've been wonderful. Bill, Warren, we really appreciate it. Let's give them a big round of applause, guys. [APPLAUSE] And we want to thank all of you, too. Columbia University, the Business School, Dean Hubbard, thank you, guys. We really appreciate it. It's been fantastic. That does it for us today. I'm Becky Quick, and if you want to watch this, you can go to and we will see you back here very soon.