2012 年 CNBC 巴菲特与 Carol Loomis 访谈
2012 年 11 月 28 日
November 28, 2012
CNBC 采访纪要：沃伦·巴菲特谈“财政悬崖”与向富人征税
CNBC Transcript: Warren Buffett on ‘Fiscal Cliff’ and Taxing the Rich
发布者：亚历克斯·克里彭 | 执行制片人
Posted By: Alex Crippen | Executive Producer
cnbc.com
cnbc.com
2012 年 11 月 28 日 | 下午 01:43 美东时间
| 28 Nov 2012 | 01:43 PM ET
沃伦·巴菲特和他的老友、《财富》杂志编辑卡罗尔·卢米斯，一同亮相 CNBC 的“财经论谈”节目，现场推广一本新书。这本书收录了该杂志过去刊登过的、关于这位奥马哈亿万富翁的文章。
Warren Buffett and his long-time friend Carol Loomis, an editor at Fortune, appeared live on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” to promote a book that collects the magazine’s past articles about the Omaha billionaire.
采访中，巴菲特表示，他预计国会将达成“财政悬崖”协议，但他认为协议可能要到 12 月 31 日截止日期之后才会达成。
During the interview, Buffett said he expects Congress to reach a “fiscal cliff” deal but thinks it could happen after the December 31 deadline.
以下是 2012 年 11 月 28 日星期三东部时间上午 8 点整段节目的完整文字记录。
This is a transcript of the entire appearance on Wednesday, November 28, 2012 at 8a ET.
乔·科南今天早上我们请到了一组重磅嘉宾。沃伦·巴菲特——上次我见他时，他系着一条很难看的领带，然后他把那条领带送给了我。他带来——是吧？
JOE KERNENWe have a big line-up this morning. Warren Buffett — last time I saw Warren, he had an ugly tie on, and he sent it to me. He brought—right?
安德鲁·罗斯·索金确实如此。
ANDREW ROSS ANDREWIt’s true.
乔·科南你又把话题拉回来了——我把那条领带放在我办公桌上。那领带丑得很。他到现在为止给我寄了一块砖头，也挺丑的，还有一条领带。就这些。
JOEYou brought it back—I have it up at my desk. It’s an ugly tie. He sent me a brick so far, which is pretty ugly, and a tie. That’s it.
贝基·奎克你有没有为这两份礼物中的任何一份向他道谢过？
BECKY QUICKHave you thanked him for either of those gifts?
乔·科南等我拿到耐飞卡，我会——我会好好谢他——一定。沃伦，谢谢你的砖头。沃伦·巴菲特稍后会和传记作者卡罗尔·卢米斯一起加入我们。感谢你来上节目。我们跟奥马哈圣贤有得聊了。
JOEWhen I get the NetJet card, I will—I will thank him appro—I will. Thanks, Warren, for the brick. Warren Buffett’s going to join us with biographer Carol Loomis in just a minute. Thanks for coming on. We have plenty to talk about with the Oracle of Omaha.
安德鲁·罗斯·索金全线下跌。不是开启早晨的好方式，但又是个好方式，因为我们的节目请到了沃伦·巴菲特。
ANDREWEverything down. Not a great way to start the morning, but a great way to start the morning since we do have Warren Buffett on the show.
贝基·奎克没错。而且还得是红箭头。你知道沃伦·巴菲特看到红箭头就喜欢买，对吧。
BECKYThat’s right. And red arrows. You know that Warren Buffett likes to buy when he sees red arrows, so.
安德鲁·罗斯·索金没错，确实是这样。
ANDREWThat is true. That is true.
贝基·奎克沃伦·巴菲特，显然是“财经论谈”节目的老熟人了。他是一本新商业传记的主角。今天上午做客我们节目的还有卡罗尔·卢米斯，《财富》杂志资深特约编辑。卡罗尔的新书《跳着踢踏舞去上班：沃伦·巴菲特几乎谈遍一切，1966-2012》正是关于巴菲特先生的。沃伦、卡罗尔，感谢你们二位今天上午的参与。
BECKYWarren Buffett, obviously, is a familiar face here on “Squawk Box”. He is the subject of a new business biography. He joins us this morning along with Carol Loomis, who is senior editor-at-large at Fortune magazine. Carol’s the author of the new book on Mr. Buffett, “Tap Dancing to Work: Warren Buffett on Practically Everything, 1966-2012.” And Warren and Carol, thank you both for joining us this morning.
沃伦·巴菲特（伯克希尔·哈撒韦董事长兼首席执行官）：谢谢大家邀请我们来。
WARREN BUFFETT (Berkshire Hathaway Chairman and CEO): Thanks for having us.
卡罗尔·卢米斯（《财富》杂志资深特约编辑）：很荣幸来到这里。
CAROL LOOMIS (Fortune Magazine Senior Editor-At-Large): Great to be here.
贝基·奎克卡罗尔，你认识沃伦·巴菲特超过 45 年了。你们友谊深厚，而且你大概是全世界最了解他对商业看法的人了。大家一直盼着这样一本书出现……
BECKYYou know, Carol, you’ve known Warren Buffett for over 45 years. You have a long friendship and you’re somebody who knows probably his take on business better than anybody out in the world. People have been waiting for a book like this…
卡罗尔·卢米斯很好。
LOOMISGreat.
贝基……但您每天都跟他通话，在整理这本书的过程中，有没有什么是您新发现的，或者能让您说“这件事我好久都没想过了”的？
BECKY…but you talk to him every day and in putting this book together, is there anything that you learned or anything that you were able to say, you know, ‘This is something I hadn’t thought about in a while’?
卡罗尔·卢米斯嗯，首先，我再次深刻体会到他的厉害。整本书里处处可见他的智慧和不断涌现的新想法。但让我印象最深的，是这些年来他思考的一贯性。书的前半部分，他给格林内尔学院提供投资建议——怎么打理捐赠基金——当格林内尔决定投资英特尔时，他完全置身事外。鲍勃·诺伊斯是格林内尔的校友，所以学院投资了英特尔，但巴菲特只是站在一边说，“我不懂半导体，所以你们自己做决定就好，我不介入，不管结果如何。”后来到了互联网泡沫时期，他依然是同样的态度。如果再来一次泡沫，他还会一模一样。
LOOMISWell, first of all, I just learned all over again how good he is. You just see it all through the book. He’s—the brilliance and the new ideas that keep coming up. But I think the thing I was most struck by was how consistent his thinking has been as he has gone through these years. In the early part of the book when he is advising Grinnell College about its—how to invest its investments—how to invest its endowment fund, he is staying off to the side while Grinnell decides to invest not—to invest in Intel. Bob Noyce went to Grinnell. And so Grinnell is making an investment in Intel, but Warren is just standing off to the side saying, ‘I don’t understand semiconductors, so I think you should just go ahead and do whatever you do, but I’m not—I’m not getting into this one way or the other.’ And that—and then he’s exactly the same when he gets to the bubble. And if we had another bubble, he’d be exactly the same again.
贝基哇。卡罗尔，你 1967 年第一次见到他的时候，第一印象是什么？当时就看出来他是个了不起的投资人了吗？
BECKYWow. You know, Carol, when you first met him back in 1967, what was your first impression? Did it jump out at the time that he was a great investor?
卢米斯嗯，我丈夫早就跟我说过他见过他——当时他觉得自己见到了全美国最出色的投资人。说实话，那时候我可能多少有点怀疑。后来我跟（巴菲特的第一任妻子）苏西一起在纽约跟他吃了午饭。我才意识到沃伦跟我见过的所有人都不一样——比我见过的任何人都更让人印象深刻，对我感兴趣的事情知道得特别详细。我当时就想，不对，这个人确实与众不同，而且我得说，我们后来买了那只股票。所以——他当时其实几乎没什么名气。
LOOMISWell, my husband had already told me who had met him earlier that he thought he was—he had met the greatest investor in the country. And, you know, I probably was a might skeptical about that at that point. And then I met him with (Buffett’s first wife) Susie. We all had lunch in New York. And I realized that Warren was unlike anybody I’d ever met—more impressive than anybody I’d ever met, knew more details about things that I was interested in. And I thought, No, this guy is really different,’ and I must say we bought the stock. So—and he was—he was really virtually unknown at that point.
巴菲特乔，我——我有好多领带要送你，不过它们被你用过之后，就会变成广告插头，我不确定还会不会继续这么干。
BUFFETTJoe, I have—I have lots of ties to send you, although the sort of plugs they get after I send them to you, I’m not sure I’ll keep doing this.
乔·科南所以这就是我看到的情况，砖块和——砖块和领带你其实不太喜欢……基本上是这样。
JOESo that’s what I see, bricks and—bricks and ties you don’t really like…basically.
巴菲特你想——你想要什么？迪利棒？我们有。我是说，随你点。
BUFFETTWhat would—what would you like? Dilly Bars? We’ve got those. I mean, you name it.
贝基有请安迪。
BECKYAndy.
乔·科南你看，他问的样子就好像不知道我到底想要什么。你知道……
JOESee, he’s asking like he doesn’t know what I really want. You know…
卡罗尔·卢米斯我认识沃伦这么多年，我的印象是，他一旦喜欢上某条领带，就会一直戴很久。
LOOMISMy experience over the years, having known Warren this long, is he gets a favorite tie, he sticks with it for quite a long time.
乔·科南这对他管用。
JOEIt works for him.
卡罗尔·卢米斯这对他管用。所以他确实没什么变化。
LOOMISIt works for him. So he really doesn’t change.
乔·科南卡罗尔，我刚听到些事。你有没有——你跟沃伦打过高尔夫吗，卡罗尔？
JOECarol, I just heard some stuff. Have you—have you ever played—do you play golf with Warren, Carol?
卡罗尔·卢米斯我和沃伦打过高尔夫。
LOOMISI have played golf with Warren.
乔·科南你带他去过翼脚高尔夫俱乐部吗？他去过没——那个球场，无论是东场还是西场，都能把他累死。
JOEDid you bring him to Winged Foot? Has he been—that course would kill either the east or the west would kill him.
卡罗尔·卢米斯嗯，我们好像没去打过翼脚。我们主要在缅因州一个叫普劳茨尼克（Prouts Neck）的球场打。
LOOMISWell, I don’t think that we have tried out Winged Foot. We have mainly played in Maine at a course called Prouts Neck.
巴菲特对。不过我 50 岁生日那天我们打了，记得吗？我们在翼脚高尔夫俱乐部办了五十华诞锦标赛。
BUFFETTYeah. We played on my 50th birthday, though, remember? We had the semi-centennial tournament at Winged Foot.
卡罗尔·卢米斯哦，没错。
LOOMISOh, that’s right.
巴菲特嗯，乔治。
BUFFETTYeah, George.
卡罗尔·卢米斯哦，我确实忘了——我是真把这事给忘了。还有在奥马哈，我也开始偶尔跟他下场打一打。
LOOMISOh, I did forget—I did forget about that. So and also in Omaha, I’ve started to play a little bit with him.
乔·科南好。
JOEAll right.
贝基·奎克沃伦，你第一次见到卡罗尔时，第一印象是什么？
BECKYWarren, when you first met Carol, what was your first impression?
巴菲特我的第一印象是，她当时怀着孕。
BUFFETTMy first impression was that she was pregnant.
卡罗尔·卢米斯这事确实让人难忘。
LOOMISIt does stick with you.
乔·科南她当时真的是怀着孕吗？
JOEWas she?
安德鲁·罗斯·索金我希望她确实是，对吧？我是说，不然就……
ANDREWI hope she was, right? I mean, that’s…
巴菲特我在见她之前——就已经有印象了。我知道她是一位极为出色的撰稿人。我一直读她的文章，而且，她可是第一位——第一位成为《财富》杂志撰稿人的女性，他们做了一个相当棒的选择。从那时起，怎么说呢，在财经界，她一直是我必读的第一人选。
BUFFETTI had a—I already had an impression. I knew she was a terrific writer. I’d been reading her stuff, and, you know, she was the first—the first woman to become a writer for Fortune, and they made a terrific choice. And ever since then, I mean, she’s been the number one read for me in the financial world.
安德鲁·罗斯·索金那么，沃伦，卡罗尔会帮你校订你们的年报或者说你写给投资者的年度信函。这件事是什么时候开始的，又是什么促使你决定这样做的？
ANDREWSo, Warren, Carol helps edit your annual report or your annual letter to investors . When did that start and what inspired you to do it?
巴菲特嗯，1977 年，我把草稿给了她一份，问她能不能帮忙编辑。她是个很出色的编辑。当时我在美国证券交易委员会的一个信息披露委员会任职，那年我确实下定决心要提升跟股东沟通的力度，所以想着让她看看。第一年她改动不多，但后来就慢慢上手了。
BUFFETTWell, in 1977, I gave her a copy of the draft and asked her if she would edit it. She’s a terrific editor. And I’d been on a committee at the SEC on disclosure, and I really decided that year I was going to step up the communication with shareholders, and so I thought I’d let her take a look at it. And she made very few changes the first year, but she’s sort of gotten in the swing of it since.
卡罗尔·卢米斯不是——我不会说它每年都在加快，但确实多了一些评论，也多了一些建议。
LOOMISIt’s not—I wouldn’t say it’s accelerated every year, but there are a few more comments, a few more suggestions.
巴菲特她说话很讲究策略。要是不喜欢什么，她就说，“这是这份报告里我最不喜欢的部分”，意思就是说，这堆东西纯属垃圾。
BUFFETTShe’s very diplomatic. When she doesn’t like something, she says, ‘This is my least favorite part of the report,’ which means it’s a bunch of junk.
贝基咱们聊聊今天新闻里的一些话题吧。沃伦，这周你在《纽约时报》发表了一篇关于税收的专栏文章，引发了不小的关注。很多人都在讨论你提出的“巴菲特规则”以及你希望看到的结果。不过，有个细节可能我们没怎么聊到——你在文章里给出了对高收入人群加税的起点建议。你觉得应该从年收入 50 万美元开始，而总统提议的是 25 万美元。我知道你上周和总统聊过，他还为此发了新闻稿。你当时有没有告诉他，你觉得这个起点太低了？
BECKYWhy don’t we talk about some of the issues that are in the news today. And, Warren,you’ve made news this week with your op-ed piece that you had earlier this week in The New York Times about taxes. A lot of people have talked about what you’ve laid out, the “Buffett Rule,” and what you’d like to see. One thing that we may not have talked about a lot, though, is in that, you laid out where you thought higher taxes should be raised on people. You thought the starting point should be at 500,000 instead of the 250,000 that the president has proposed. I know you spoke with the president last week, he put out a news release about that. Did you tell him at that point that you thought the starting number was too low?
巴菲特对。他——嗯，他知道我的看法，因为我之前发过——他们周五打来电话，问我周六是否方便接总统的电话。我从没给他打过电话，不过——而且我知道我要发表那篇评论文章，所以周六通话前，我把文章发给了他。所以谈话时他已经看到了 50 万美元这个数字。他没有特意提起这件事。
BUFFETTYeah. He—well, he knew my view on it because I had sent—they made a call on Friday and said would I be available for a call on Saturday from the president. I’ve never called him, but—and since I knew I was going to put out this op-ed piece, I sent him a copy prior to the phone call on Saturday, of the piece. So he had seen the $500,000 figure when we talked. He did not specifically bring it up.
贝基你跟他提过这事吗？
BECKYDid you bring it up to him?
巴菲特没有，他看到了。我是说，我知道那份数据就摆在他面前。既然他——既然他当时说的是 250，我就觉得这不是个适合提出来讨论的话题。
BUFFETTNo, he’d seen it. I mean, I knew it was there in front of him. Since he—since he was saying 250, I did not think it was a great subject to bring up.
贝基他对你的专栏文章有什么评论吗？
BECKYDid he make any comments about your op-ed piece?
巴菲特嗯，他确实没提出什么异议。我的意思是，他只是简单地说他看过了，大致说了句他喜欢这封信。但我们没有深入讨论细节。
BUFFETTWell, he certainly didn’t argue with any of it. I mean, he just briefly said that he’s seen it. He said something to the effect that he liked it. But we didn’t get into a detailed discussion of it.
贝基你们二位在商界和国家大事上都见多识广，我们一直在努力寻找某种方式——来应对财政悬崖和财政深渊。沃伦，我记得你过去说过，要是你坐下来，几分钟内就能想出某种双方大概都能接受的方案。沃伦和卡罗尔，鉴于你们看到了华盛顿政治舞台上发生的一切，如果你们能提出一个方案，那方案会是什么样？
BECKYYou know, you two have seen a lot of things that have happened in business and seen a lot of things that have happened around the country, and we have been trying here to try and find some sort of fit—fix to the fiscal cliff and the fiscal abyss. I know, Warren, in the past you’ve told us if you sat down, you could figure out in a matter of minutes some sort of solution that probably both sides could live with. Warren and Carol, if you could put up some sort of a plan, having seen what’s happened with politics in Washington, what would that plan look like?
巴菲特嗯……
BUFFETTWell…
卡罗尔·卢米斯这个问题还是让沃伦来回答吧。
LOOMISI’ll defer to Warren.
巴菲特这个计划会在不久的将来让我们达到收入占 GDP 的 18.5%，支出占 GDP 的 21%。实际上，从二战以来，我们基本上就在执行这个计划——数字虽然有些波动，但 18.5% 和 21% 这两个水平是可以持续的，不会让国债与 GDP 的比率上升。每年会有赤字，但因为经济在增长，18.5% 和 21% 这个比例非常可持续。实际上，长期来看，它甚至可能降低债务与 GDP 的比率。
BUFFETTWell, the plan would have—would get us in the near future to having 18 1/2 percent of GDP as revenues and 21 percent of GDP as expenses. We’ve had that plan basically in effect since World War II. I mean, it’s bounced around a little bit, but that—those two levels, 18 1/2 and 21 are sustainable in the sense that they will not increase the ratio of the national debt to GDP. They’ll run a deficit every year, but because our economy grows, 18 1/2 and 21 is a—is a very sustainable figure. In fact, it’ll probably bring down the debt to GDP over time. And…
贝基但是……
BECKYBut…
巴菲特……这不光是我一个人，贝基，我是说，你们仨，还有很多美国公众，都提出过一个方案——把税率搞到 18.5%，或者 21%，大多数人都能接受。我们都各自有点小分歧，但那就是我们必须到达的地方。
BUFFETT…it’s not just me, Becky, I mean, you know, all three of you, a lot of people among the American public, have come up with a plan that worked its way to 18 1/2, and 21 and most people could accept it. We’d all have a little—a few differences, but that’s where we have to get at.
贝基但是，沃伦，那是合乎逻辑的做法，也是常识性的做法，而最近从华盛顿传来的声音几乎是一种赢家通吃、不留活口的态度，两边都是“要么听我的，要么走人”。我的意思是，你在华盛顿待过，也见过国会的运作，你觉得这帮人能找到一种常识性的解决方案，完全按照你刚说的那样去做吗？
BECKYBut, Warren, that’s the logical approach and a commonsense approach, and what we’ve been hearing from Washington these days is almost a winner take all, take no prisoners sort of approach to this. ‘It’s my way or the highway’ on both sides. I mean, do you think, having lived in Washington and seeing what happens in Congress, that this group of people is going to find some commonsense solution that does exactly what you just laid out?
巴菲特对，我觉得会。我不确定他们能在 12 月 31 日前搞定；但你也知道，我看过华盛顿那一套，他们显然不想在公开场合谈判。所以你听不到有人出来——听不到民主党人大谈他们愿意削减哪些开支。
BUFFETTYeah, I think they will. I’m not sure they’ll do it by December 31st; but, you know, I have seen Washington and they don’t want to negotiate in public, obviously. So you’re not going to hear people come on—you’re not going to hear Democrats talk a lot about what expenditures they’re willing to cut.
乔·科南对。没错。
JOEYeah. Right.
巴菲特你也听不到共和党人大谈他们要增加哪些收入。但这可能也不是坏事，因为一旦你说了那些话，就会被自己绑住，面子放不下，选民也会说：“你当初可是这么说的，现在为什么让步了？”等等。但在私下里，我认为他们终究会达成某种类似的方案，不过可能不会在 12 月 31 日前搞出来。
BUFFETTYou’re not going to hear Republicans talk a lot about what revenues they’ll increase. But at—and it’s probably a good thing because then you get stuck in those positions and your ego gets involved and your constituents say, ‘Well, you said this and why did you back off?’ and all that. But in private, they will—they will—in my view, they’ll get to something like that, but it may not be by December 31st.
乔·科南我在想——沃伦，如果我们能通过促增长政策，回到一个 GDP 增长 4% 的世界，两边到底需要做些什么？25% 这一块就还是 25%，因为需要政府服务的人没那么多了，诸如此类。然后税收——收入这边就不会是 15% 或者现在这个数字了。我的意思是，在一个 4% 的世界里，我们可能什么都不用做就差不多到那儿了，我是这么觉得。所以我希望我们能想个办法推动增长。
JOEI wonder—I wonder, Warren, what we’d really need to do on both sides in a—in a 4 percent world of GDP growth if we could somehow get back there through pro-growth policies, the 25 percent would be 25 because not as many people would need government services and that. And then the tax—the revenue side wouldn’t be 15 or whatever it is right now. I mean, we could probably in a 4 percent world, we’re almost there without doing anything, I would think. So I wish we could figure out a way to do—to do growth.
巴菲特是的。
BUFFETTYeah.
乔·科南你知道，那样我们就能——那样我们就能在税收和削减福利支出上做我们该做的事了。
JOEYou know, and then we could—and then we could do what we needed to do on taxes and cutting entitlements.
巴菲特乔，我们是会增长的。不过，4% 的确是个相当高的目标。我们会……
BUFFETTAnd, Joe, we’ll get growth. I mean, but 4 percent is a pretty lofty number. We’ll…
乔·科南就算是 3.5%——就算是……
JOEEven 3 1/2—even…
巴菲特是的。
BUFFETTYeah.
乔·科南如果增速是 3% 呢，沃伦？
JOEWhat would it be at 3 percent, Warren?
巴菲特嗯……
BUFFETTWell…
乔·科南我们大概会处在——大概处在 17.5 到 22 这个区间。
JOEWe’d probably be at—we’d probably be at 17 1/2, 22.
巴菲特是的。3% 的增速会让收入与支出占 GDP 的比例差距更大。
BUFFETTYeah. Three percent would allow a bigger spread between revenue and expenditures as a percentage of GDP.
乔·科南就是在我们现在的税率水平下，以及目前的……
JOEJust where we are with the current tax rate and with the current…
巴菲特是的。
BUFFETTYeah.
乔·科南就算维持现在的福利支出，我们也差不多能——差一点就到位了。
JOEEven funding the entitlements we have now, we could get—we’d almost be there.
巴菲特但 3% 的增长率，你想想看，3% 的增长配上 1% 的人口增长，就意味着在一代人的时间里，也就是 20 年内，生活水平会提升 40%。这可是个相当宏伟的目标。我们过去有时候确实达到过，但即便只有 2% 的增长，配上 1% 的人口增长，下一代的人均生活水平也会比这一代高出 20%，这已经相当了不起了。而且我的判断是，即便只有 2% 的增长也能奏效。显然，增长越多，问题解决起来就越轻松。
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BUFFETTBut 3 percent growth, if you think about it, 3 percent growth with 1 percent population growth, that means a 40 percent change upward in one generation, in 20 years, to the—to the standard of living. That’s a pretty lofty goal. We’ve hit it sometimes in the past, but even at 2 percent growth, with 1 percent growth in population, the next generation lives 20 percent per capita better than the present generation, which is pretty remarkable. And what I suggest will work even with 2 percent growth. Obviously, the more growth you get, you know, the easier the problems become.
乔·科南是的。
JOEYeah.
巴菲特我是说，你的收入增长得越多，家里的麻烦事就越少，乔。
BUFFETTI mean, the more your income grows, you know, the fewer problems you’re going to have in your family, Joe.
乔·科南是啊，不过你还是拿不到 Marquis Jet 卡。
JOEYeah, well, still won’t have a Marquis Jet card.
巴菲特这个好办，我们可以安排。
BUFFETTWell, we can arrange that.
乔·科南哦对，你老这么说，我就领这块砖。总之，谢了。贝基让我替她谢谢你送砖。谢了。
JOEOh yeah, you always say that, and I get a brick. Anyway. Thanks for the brick. Becky wants me to thank you for the brick. Thanks for the brick.
巴菲特嗯……
BUFFETTWell…
贝基·奎克我们在这儿是想教点规矩。
BECKYWe’re trying to teach manners here.
巴菲特你是唯一一个收到过我寄的砖头的人，这一点我得让你知道。
BUFFETTYou’re the only person I’ve sent a brick to, I want you to know.
乔·科南我拿一块砖头能干啥？你可别说——别回答那个问题。总之，安迪，你说吧。
JOEWhat am I supposed to do with a brick? And don’t say—don’t answer that. Anyway, go ahead, Andy.
安德鲁我们稍事休息后，将继续与沃伦·巴菲特和卡罗尔·卢米斯的对话。稍后带来。
ANDREWWe’ll talk—we’re going to continue this conversation with Warren Buffett and Carol Loomis after the break. That’s still ahead.
乔·科南我们继续和沃伦·巴菲特、卡罗尔·卢米斯聊。再说一遍，这本书叫《跳着踢踏舞去上班》。卡罗尔，我本来想问你，你最近有没有在市场哪个板块加仓，或者有没有什么大的收购。然后我又想，你知道吗，这种问题我还是问巴菲特更合适吧？不是故意冷落你。
JOELet’s get back to our discussion with Warren Buffett and Carol Loomis. Again, the book is “Tap Dancing to Work.” And I—I don’t know—Carol, I was going to ask you if you’ve been adding to your portfolio in any areas of the market, or whether you had any big acquisitions. And then I think, you know what, I should—I should probably stick to Buffett with those type of questions, right? I don’t want to ignore you.
卡罗尔·卢米斯我也这么想。我觉得我不至于把市场搅翻。
LOOMISI think so. I don’t think I’m going to rock the market.
乔·科南对，全都……
JOEYeah, all…
卡罗尔·卢米斯就像沃伦会做的那样。
LOOMISLike Warren might.
乔·科南……我没不理你，但我要先……
JOE…I’m not ignoring you, but I’m just going to…
卡罗尔·卢米斯哦，不，不，不。没关系。没关系。
LOOMISOh no, no, no. That’s all right. That’s all right.
乔·科南……我要说的是——这样，沃伦，过去你经常说，像你这样的人被国税局惯坏了；而且你还提出了“巴菲特规则”，如果我没记错的话，收入在 100 万到 1000 万美元之间，税率是 30%，对吧？超过 1000 万美元的部分是 35%。
JOE…I’m going to talk—OK. Warren, a lot of times in the past you’ve said that guys like you are coddled by the IRS; and you, you know, put forth the Buffett Rule, which I think of what, one to 10, it’s 30 percent, right, and over 10 it’s 35 percent.
巴菲特是最低税率。
BUFFETTMinimum tax.
乔·科南对，是最低税率。我就在想这事，就算这样，我们恐怕还是收不到你的税——我们还是从你这儿收不到我们想要的。我在想这些年来你所取得的成绩，你简直就是宇宙七大奇观之一，显然，能积攒起 500 亿美元的财富。我不认为你在缴税方面会是个冤大头，才做到这一点的。我觉得你很清楚如何利用各种架构和交易，确保你在做事的时候可以有一定程度的避税。就算我们把“巴菲特规则”变成法律，我们照样逮不着你，而且既然你已经把钱全捐给了盖茨基金会，甚至连你捐赠的时候我们都收不到你的税。
JOEYeah, minimum tax. And I think about that and we’re still not going to get—we’re not going to get you. We’re not going to get what we need from you. And I think about over the years what you’ve been able to do, and you’re the one—one of the seven wonders of the—of the universe, obviously, to accrue $50 billion. I don’t think you’ve done it by being a patsy in terms of paying taxes. I think you’ve known how to take advantage of structures and deals to make sure that there’s a degree of tax avoidance in the way you do things. If we were to put the Buffett Rule in, we’re still not going to get you, and since you’ve given it all to (the) Gates (Foundation), we’re not going to get you even when you give it away.
巴菲特你们能收到……
BUFFETTYou’re going to get…
乔·科南所以我们实际上是——我们永远没法儿让你去做你希望其他所有人都做的事，我们永远没法儿从你身上收到那些税，对吧？你还说过一些关于中产阶级的言论，说富人缴税能鼓舞士气。可你缴给联邦政府的钱从来都不会提振任何人的士气，是不是这么回事？
JOESo we’re real—we’re never going to get what you want everybody else to do, we’re never going to get it from you, are we? And you said something about the middle class, a morale-booster if rich people pay their taxes. You’re not going to boost anyone’s morale ever by funding the federal government, are you?
巴菲特你们能收到——在这项规则下，你们能从我这儿收到的是 35% 的税，而且……
BUFFETTYou’re going to get—what you’ll get from me under the—under this is you’ll get 35 percent and…
乔·科南如果你以收入的形式给自己发钱……
JOEIf you pay yourself income from…
巴菲特嗯，不，不。如果我有——如果我有……
BUFFETTWell, no, no. If I have—if I have…
乔·科南股息收入。
JOEDividends.
巴菲特……如果我有——如果我有投资收入，也就是我主要的收入来源……
BUFFETT…if I have—if I have investment income, which is where my main income comes from…
乔·科南没错。
JOERight.
巴菲特……我会为此缴纳 35% 的税。现在，我的收入可能比卡罗尔高。但我敢肯定，卡罗尔缴的所得税……
BUFFETT…I will pay 35 percent. Right now my income is probably larger than Carol’s. Carol is paying more I’m sure in income…
乔·科南我知道，但……
JOEI know, but…
巴菲特……但是我会缴……
BUFFETT…but I will pay…
乔·科南你懂我的意思。我们终究还是没法真正收到——你一直能利用这个制度的优势积累起巨额财富，而你永远也不会像你所希望的那样去真正支撑联邦政府的运作——我呢，当然——老天保佑你把钱捐给了慈善机构。我认为这是一个——你在这家电视台的节目里说过，你的财富如果用在慈善上，很可能比交给政府用得更有效。但我觉得，你就是好像从来没有真正，你懂的，缴过你该缴的那份税，或者照你的说法，该缴的那份公平份额的税。
JOEYou know my point. We’re still not going to really get—you’ve been able to take advantage of the system to accrue a huge amount of wealth, and you will never really fund the federal government’s operations like you would have it—and I—and I—God bless you that you’re giving it to charity. I think that’s a—you have said on this—on the network that that is a better use probably of your wealth than the government. But I just don’t seem like you’ve ever really, you know, paid your share, or what you would call your fair share of taxes.
巴菲特我，我——不，我同意。过去十年确实如此，我完全同意。我以前交的税率要高得多。但过去十年，确实如此。我的税率——我的税率一直很低，你知道，跟罗姆尼州长一样，还有一大群其他超级富豪。按这个方案，我会交 35% 的税，而且所有最终进入我口袋的钱都会按 35% 交税。
BUFFETTI, I—no, I agree. I certainly agree in the last 10 years that’s been true. I used to pay a much higher rate. But in the last 10 years, it’s true. My rate—my rate has been down there, you know, with Governor Romney’s and, you know, and a whole bunch of other super-rich people. And I would pay 35 percent under this, and I would pay 35 percent on all the money that ever ends up in my pocket.
安德鲁对。哎，沃伦，顺着这个思路，说到企业税和伯克希尔对体系做出的贡献，我记得几年前我们聊过，当时谈到伯克希尔的结构，伯克希尔结构的一部分就是把一个实体的利润拿来再投资到另一个实体，结果那些利润就不用交税了。
ANDREWRight. Hey, Warren, along the same lines when you think about corporate taxes and Berkshire’s contribution to the system, I remember us talking a couple of years ago, we were talking about the structure of Berkshire, and part of the structure of Berkshire has been to take the profits from one entity and be able to reinvest it in another entity, and as a result you’re not being taxed on those profits.
巴菲特哎，这不对。这不对。要是我们在喜诗糖果赚了钱，拿这笔钱去买 BNSF 铁路，那喜诗赚的钱在用到别处之前，是要先交税的。所以，公司间资金划转对伯克希尔的税率没影响。伯克希尔不管是在马文公司赚的、喜诗赚的，还是奈特捷赚的，都按正常税率交税，乔。
BUFFETTWell that’s not true. That’s not true. If we—if we earn money at See’s Candy and use that money to buy the BNSF Railroad, we pay taxes at all of the income made at See’s before it’s used elsewhere. So we—on inter-corporate transfers of money, that has no effect on Berkshire’s tax rate. Berkshire pays normal taxes on whatever it makes at Marvin or whatever it makes at See’s, or even NetJets, Joe.
乔·科南但这不是——现在是安德鲁在说。我不是——那是安德鲁。现在说这些难听话的人是他。别说是乔说的。我说完了。
JOEBut not—that’s Andrew now. I’m not—that’s Andrew. He’s the one that’s saying all this nasty stuff now. Don’t say Joe. I’m done.
巴菲特这倒不是恶意，只是说……
BUFFETTIt isn’t nasty, it’s just that…
乔·科南我出手了——我出手了。
JOEI took—I took my shot.
安德鲁不，但，沃伦，不过不，你们每年是按伯克希尔整体利润交税，不是按每家子公司单独交，对吧？
ANDREWNo, but, Warren, though, but no, you guys pay taxes on the overall profits from Berkshire every year, not the individual entities, right?
巴菲特是的，各个主体都会纳入合并纳税申报。
BUFFETTYeah, well the individual entities contribute to the consolidated tax return.
安德鲁对。
ANDREWRight.
巴菲特但是，在伯灵顿北方圣太菲铁路公司（BNSF）或中美能源公司（Mid-American Energy）这些子公司赚到的任何钱，都要按正常税率纳税，即便我们可能把这些钱分配出去用于其他目的。
BUFFETTBut any money made at, you name the subsidiary, at BNSF or Mid-American Energy, that gets taxed at normal rates even though we perhaps distribute and use it for some other purpose.
安德鲁没错。你认为在企业税方面有没有更好的办法，不只是降低税率、堵上漏洞这些，而是——你看伯克希尔这么成功——能不能更有效地征收税款，也就是企业这边“公平份额”的问题，像伯克希尔这样的公司，我确实相信它们缴税很公平，但你看苹果这样的公司，会说，“瞧瞧那些利润”，而美国政府和美国纳税人到底是不是它们所有成功的巨大受益者，这一点其实并不清楚。
ANDREWRight. Do you think that there’s a better way on corporate taxes, not only to reduce the rate and close loopholes and all of that, but when you think about the success of Berkshire, but to be able to better capture taxes effectively, the fair share issue on the corporate side from companies like Berkshire, which I do believe pay their taxes fairly, but you go and look at an Apple, for example, and you say, ‘Look at all those profits,’ and it’s not really clear that the U.S. government and taxpayers here have been a huge beneficiary of all their success.
巴菲特确实，联邦政府主要税收类别中降幅最大的就是企业所得税。回顾五六十年代，企业缴纳的所得税约占 GDP 的 4%，当时税率长期是 52%，后来降到 48%。所以那时贡献了 4%。去年，刚结束的那个财年，我记得企业税交了 2420 亿美元，而当年年底 GDP 大约是 15.7 万亿美元。所以占比从 4% 以上掉到了 1.5% 左右。因此，过去三四十年里，税率下调的最大受益者是企业。而增幅最大的则是工资税。工资税在……
BUFFETTWell, it’s certainly true that the biggest decline among major categories of tax revenues by the federal government has been the corporate tax. If you go back to the 1950s and 1960s, about 4 percent of GDP was paid in corporate taxes and tax rates were 52 percent for a long period and then 48 percent. So 4 percent was going. Last year, in the fiscal year that just ended, I think there were 242 billion of corporate taxes paid against 15.7 trillion roughly of GDP rate at the end of the year. So it’s fallen from 4 percent, over 4 percent of GDP to the 1 1/2 percent range. So the biggest beneficiary of reductions in tax rates in the last 30 or 40 years has been corporations. And the biggest increase has been in the payroll tax. The payroll tax has gone up in…
安德鲁那你支持属地税制吗？
ANDREWAre you a believer in a territorial system then?
巴菲特嗯，我认为企业税对美国企业来说从来不是个问题。
BUFFETTWell, I believe that corporate taxes have not been a problem for corporate America.
乔·科南嘿，沃伦，我——换个话题，我在《纽约时报》上看到了一篇文章，老实说，那地方挺意外的。我又专门回去翻了翻。
JOEHey, Warren, I—on another subject, I was reading in the, of all places, The New York Times. I went back to it.
巴菲特哦，乔！
BUFFETTOh, Joe!
乔·科南我正在读——我现在稍微读了一点。我正在稍微读一点。
JOEI’m reading—I’m reading it a little bit now. I’m reading it a little bit.
安德鲁那现在沃伦又给《纽约时报》写文章了？
ANDREWNow that Warren’s writing for the Times again?
乔·科南是啊是啊。爱德华多·波特写的那篇文章——说实话，我读到内容时简直目瞪口呆。他指出，收入不平等显而易见，人人都知道富人越来越富。事实上，最富有的 1% 家庭在经济复苏头两年占据了 93% 的收入增长，剩下的我们只拿到 7%。但他接下来又承认，我们现在的累进税率可能仍是所有发达国家中最高的。
JOEYeah, yeah. Eduardo Porter makes—I mean, I was flabbergasted by what this is really saying. He points out that income disparity, obviously, everybody knows how the rich have gotten richer. In fact, the richest 1 percent of families earn 93 percent of the income growth in the first two years of the economic recovery and the rest of us got 7 percent. But then he goes on to concede we still have maybe the most progressive tax rate of all advanced countries right now.
巴菲特我不同意这个说法。
BUFFETTI don’t agree with that.
乔·科南而且——好吧，不。让我直接念一下。“许多美国人可能难以相信，但多项研究显示，美国已经拥有发达国家中最累进的税制之一，从富人那里征收到的收入比例高于其他发达国家。”你可以不同意我的观点，但他接下来说的是，这并非缩小收入差距的关键。关键在于——不是说你向富人征税更多就能解决问题——而是我们根本没有征到足够的税。我们征的税不够多，无法切实帮助中产阶级和穷人，也无法有效缩小这个差距。他的论点是，除非你让中产阶级重新回来缴税，或者说让更多纳税人回到税基里，否则你在收入差距问题上永远做不到你需要做的事。
JOEAnd—well, no. Let me just read it. “Many Americans may find it hard to believe, but the United States already has one of the most progressive tax systems in the developed world, according to several studies, raising proportionately more revenue from the wealthy than other advanced countries do.” But you can disagree with what I’m saying, but what he then says is that that is not the key to reducing income disparity. It’s not that—it’s not how much—it’s not that you raise from the wealthy instead of others, but that we don’t—simply don’t raise enough. We don’t raise enough to actually help the middle class and the poor to actually help narrow that disparity. And he’s arguing that until you go back to the middle class or go back to more taxpayers you’re never going to do what you need to do in terms of income disparity.
巴菲特没错，我们正在从中产阶级身上抽取巨额资金。我的意思是，如果你看工资税，美国全部财政收入的 1/3 都来自工资税。
BUFFETTYeah, well, we’re raising dramatic amounts from the middle class. I mean, if you look at the payroll taxes, one-third of the entire revenue of the United States comes from payroll taxes.
乔·科南我们真该把社会保障基金一直算进去吗？我们不能——那会把事情搞得乱七八糟。这么算根本就不是苹果跟苹果比。那本来就是设计成保险体系，不是所得税，对吧？
JOEShould we really put Social Security in there all the time? We can’t have—that mixes things up so much. That’s not apples to apples when you do it that way. That was not designed as an income tax. It’s an insurance system, right?
巴菲特相信我，这就是一种税，一种税……
BUFFETTBelieve me, it’s a tax, it’s a tax…
乔·科南我知道——我知道你不得不付这个钱——我知道你不得不付这个钱。
JOEI know—I know you have to pay it—I know you have to pay it.
巴菲特……这是对收入征收的一种税。
BUFFETT…it’s a tax on income.
乔·科南但这……
JOEBut it…
巴菲特这笔税按你的收入征收，收入刚过 10 万美元就停征了。
BUFFETTAnd you pay it based on your income and it quits at a little over $100,000.
乔·科南而且政府——政府把它偷走，反正很多时候也拿去当开销了。但如果你——假如你没有——假如你只是把工资税这块撤掉的话。
JOEAnd then the government—the government steals it and uses it anyway for expenses a lot of times anyway. But if you were—if you weren’t to have—if you were to just back out your payroll tax point.
巴菲特嗯，那是联邦政府收入的三分之一——三分之一，也就是 8000 亿美元。
BUFFETTWell, that’s a third of—that’s a third of the income of the federal government, so it’s $800 billion.
乔·科南没错。
JOERight.
巴菲特这是一种累退税。实际上，如果一对夫妇每人年收入大约 10 万美元，他们就要为 20 万美元的收入缴纳这项税。而我基本上不用交什么工资税。
BUFFETTAnd it’s the regressive tax. In fact, if you have a couple that’s each making about 100,000 they’re paying it on 200,000. I’m paying practically no payroll tax.
乔·科南没错。
JOERight.
巴菲特我按 10 万美元的薪水缴这个税。你要知道，这个国家大约三分之一的财政收入，从根本上说都来自一种非常累退的税制。
BUFFETTI pay it on my salary of 100,000 and, you know, it’s a eight—it’s a third of the revenue of the country that basically comes from a very regressive tax.
乔·科南对。但那些高收入的人——就拿那些赚 100 万或 200 万、按 35% 税率纳税的人来说吧，他们并没有太多抵扣项。如果你赚 200 万，交 70 万的联邦税，再交州和地方所得税，你的实际税率就接近 50% 了。这……
JOERight. But people that do make—let’s take people that make a million or $2 million that pay 35 percent don’t have a lot of deductions. If you make $2 million and you pay 700,000 in federal taxes and then you also pay state and local income tax you get up close to 50 percent. Is that…
巴菲特不，你的州税可以在联邦税里抵扣。
BUFFETTNo, you get—you get a deduction for your state taxes.
乔·科南州税确实可以抵扣。但如果你把所有税加起来，总额差不多在 80 万到 90 万美元之间，对吧？
JOEYou do for your state. But if you add everything in you get up to a number that’s somewhere around 8 or $900,000, right?
巴菲特你当然可以到 40%，如果你在联邦税中扣除……
BUFFETTYou get—you certainly can get to 40 if you deduct your federal…
乔·科南40%。
JOEForty percent.
巴菲特……你的州税，还有你的——对。
BUFFETT…of your state taxes and your—yeah.
乔·科南那——那些人是不是纳税太低了？
JOEIs that—are those people undertaxed?
巴菲特不过，我在文章里说到的重点是，你看那 400 位收入最高的纳税人，他们平均……
BUFFETTWell, but the point I made in the article, of course, is you take the 400 highest taxpayers who average…
乔·科南对。
JOEYeah.
巴菲特……每人有 2 亿美元的收入，但很少有人按你说的那个税率缴税。
BUFFETT…$200 million apiece of income, very few of them are paying that rate you’re talking about.
乔·科南对。但也不是，我知道。不过……
JOERight. But no, I know. But…
巴菲特但运动员是按那个税率缴税的。
BUFFETTBut the athletes pay it.
乔·科南……这个——但这些人是那些并没有……你知道，那些人也许辛辛苦苦工作了一辈子，才有了资本利得和股息。我们应该好好讨论一下……
JOE…this—but these are people that haven’t—you know, those people maybe they worked their whole life to where they get—they have capital gains and dividends. We should have a discussion…
贝基·奎克或者他们就是继承得来的。
BECKYOr maybe they just inherited it.
乔·科南也可能是继承来的。但我们该讨论一下——我不知道资本利得税或股息税定在什么水平才算合理。
JOEOr maybe they inherited it. But we should have a discussion on—I don’t know what the right capital gains or dividend rate is.
巴菲特嗯……
BUFFETTWell…
乔·科南但就 W2 表上的普通收入而言，如果每年赚 100 万美元或 200 万美元，你要缴纳大约 40% 的税。那这些人——他们是不是确实交税交得太少了？
JOEBut just in terms of ordinary income that you get on your W2, if you make $1 million or $2 million you’re paying about 40 percent. Is that definitely—are those people undertaxed?
巴菲特不，我觉得差不多就是这个数。
BUFFETTNo, I say that’s about right.
乔·科南嗯，好吧。
JOEYeah, OK.
巴菲特但我要说的是，超级富豪并没有在缴纳那么多税。我是说……
BUFFETTBut I say that the super rich are not paying that. I mean…
乔·科南是啊，真希望我们能从他们那里多收上一些。我们只能……
JOEYeah, I wish we could get more from them. We can only…
巴菲特嗯，我们可以——我们能做到。我们只需要一个最低税率就行。
BUFFETTWell, we can—we can. All we need is a minimum tax.
乔·科南是啊，但这帮不上多大忙。
JOEYeah, but it doesn’t help that much.
贝基·奎克但是……
BECKYBut…
乔·科南昨天有一项研究显示，你能多收到 30 亿或 40 亿美元，但那要花 500 年才能还清，当……
JOEThere was a study yesterday. You get 3 or $4 billion and that takes 500 years to pay off when…
巴菲特不不不，你能拿到的远不止 30 亿或 40 亿美元，这我可以告诉你。我是说，你坐下来算算就知道了。那些年薪 2 亿美元的人，你得有 6 个这样的人才能一分钱税都不交。他们就是罗姆尼州长那 47% 里的一部分。他们才是那些“搭便车的”。
BUFFETTNo, no you get a whole lot more than 3 of $4 billion, I can tell you that. I mean, just sit down and figure it. I mean, you’ve got—you’ve got people making $200 million a year, you got to have six of them to pay no tax. I mean, they’re part of—they’re part of Governor Romney’s 47 percent. They’re the moochers.
乔·科南对，对。
JOERight, right.
贝基·奎克沃伦，如果你——我知道你过去说过，你赞同像多梅尼奇-里夫林计划和辛普森-鲍尔斯计划这样的方案，你支持过这些计划。在这些方案里，他们对普通收入征税，对资本利得和股息也按普通收入的税率征税。他们取消像慈善抵扣这样的项目。这些部分你也都支持吗？
BECKYWarren, if you—I know you’ve said in the past that you agree with plans like Domenici-Rivlin and Simpson-Bowles, you’ve gone along with those things. In those plans, they take ordinary income, they tax capital gains and dividends at the same levels as ordinary income. They get rid of things like charitable deductions. You go along with all those parts of the plan, too?
巴菲特这个嘛，我同意——各个方案都有一点不同——我能同意很多方案，只要它们总体上把财政收入提高到占 GDP 大约 18.5%，并且把支出降到 21% 左右。我是说，不管是里夫林-多梅尼西方案，还是辛普森-鲍尔斯方案，还是，你知道，奎克-科南方案，我是说，你可以提出很多提案……
BUFFETTWell I go along—they all have a little different—I can go along with any number of plans that, in general, move up the revenue to 18 1/2 percent or so of GDP and move down expenses to around 21. I mean, whether it’s Rivlin-Domenici, whether it’s Simpson-Bowles, whether it’s, you know, whether it’s Quick-Kernen, I mean, you can—you can come up with a lot of proposals…
乔·科南但你漏掉了。
JOEBut you left out .
巴菲特其实吧——合理的方案有很多。而且——顺便说一句，我觉得我们最终会拿出一个方案。但问题之一在于，我觉得国会多数议员可能支持某个方案，但极左派——你知道的——会有一些人不喜欢它，极右派也会有一些人不喜欢它。如果两党中任何一方的领导人担心，因为本党内部的少数派而失去领导地位，那么哪怕国会多数都同意这个方案，它也根本到不了投票环节。你知道的，我觉得一年多前那个“大妥协”可能就遇到了这个问题。
BUFFETTWell I, really I—there’s all kinds of plans that generally make sense. And I—and incidentally I think we’ll come up with one. But one of the problems you have is I think you could have a majority of Congress before a plan, but the far left would not, you know, would have some votes that didn’t like it. The far right would have some votes that didn’t like it. And if—and if the leadership of either party is worried that they’re going to lose their leadership because of that maybe minority within their own party, you might have something that a majority of Congress would approve, but it still will not get to a vote. You know, I think we may have had that problem with the grand bargain, you know, over a year ago.
贝基·奎克我们昨天请了罗杰·奥特曼上节目，他说他认为最终对民选领导人施加压力的会是股市——你会看到股市大跌，而那件事就会把他们推回去，就像不良资产救助计划那时一样。
BECKYWe had Roger Altman on yesterday , and he said he thinks that it’s the equities market that will eventually put pressure on the elected leaders, that you’d see a sell-off in the stock market and that would be the thing that pushed them back, just like TARP.
巴菲特嗯，不良资产救助计划那会儿确实是这样，没错。
BUFFETTWell, it certainly happened with TARP, yeah.
贝基·奎克你觉得这种情况发生的可能性大吗？我的意思是，如果你认为在 12 月 31 日前可能谈不成协议，股市会不会因此做出反应，进而迫使国会和总统采取行动？
BECKYDo you think that that’s a likely scenario? I mean, if you think there’s a chance we may not get a deal by December 31st, does the equity market react and does that in turn force Congress and the president?
巴菲特是的。我不知道——我不知道股市会怎么走。股市什么都有可能发生，但我觉得——我觉得如果到 12 月 31 日还没达成协议，压力会很大。这种压力可能来自股市，也可能来自雪片般的信件，或者来自，你知道，CNBC 和媒体整体。但我们不可能拖到 1 月 1 日之后好几个月。不过话又说回来，就算过了 1 月 1 日还没结果，我也不会觉得意外。
BUFFETTYeah. I don’t know—I don’t know what stock markets will do. They can do anything, but I think that—I think that there will be a lot of pressure if they don’t get an agreement by December 31st. Whether it comes from the stock market or just letters pouring in or whether it comes from, you know, CNBC and the media generally, but we are not going to go for months after January 1st. But it wouldn’t surprise me if we go past January 1st.
安德鲁沃伦……
ANDREWWarren…
巴菲特我不认为——顺便说一句，我不认为世界会末日。但我可以向你保证这一点，伯克希尔现在大概有，我也不知道，29 万名员工。如果 12 月 31 日没达成协议，那 1 月 1 号、2 号、3 号、4 号我们也不会解雇任何一个员工。这事压根不会发生。
BUFFETTI don’t think—incidentally, I don’t think the world will come to an end. I will guarantee you this, Berkshire has about, I don’t know, 290,000 employees now. If there’s not a deal on December 31st, there’s not an employee that we’re going to lay off in January 1st or 2nd or 3rd or 4th. It just won’t happen.
安德鲁嘿，沃伦，有个关于慈善抵扣的问题我一直琢磨。如果抵扣真的设了上限，你觉得这会改变人们现在做慈善的方式，还是说这么多年来会改变你自己的做法？你知道，通过等待，你能实现复利增长，这是件好事。
ANDREWHey, Warren, one question on charitable deductions that I’ve been thinking about. If there was a real cap on deductions, do you think it would’ve changed either the way people approach charity today or would’ve changed the way you approach over the years? You know, by waiting, you’re able to compound, which is a great thing.
巴菲特嗯，它不会改变什么……
BUFFETTWell, it wouldn’t change it…
安德鲁但如果没有这笔扣除，你可能会采取不同的做法？
ANDREWBut maybe without the deduction you would’ve done it differently?
巴菲特不会，因为我捐出去的几乎每样东西都拿不到抵税。我有 100 亿美元的慈善亏损结转或慈善扣除结转，永远也用不完。所以我每年能拿到的抵税额，可能——嗯，不超过 1%——不到我捐出价值的 1%。
BUFFETTNo, because I don’t get the deduction on virtually everything I give away. I’ve got a $10 billion charitable loss carry forward or charitable deduction carry forward, which I’ll never use. So I get to take a deduction for maybe—well, not more than 1 percent—less than 1 percent of the—of the value of what I give away every year.
乔·科南你可以把那玩意儿寄给我，别寄砖头。我有 100 亿美元的亏损结转——不过你不能那么干。
JOEYou can send me that instead of a brick. I have a $10 billion loss carry—but you can’t do that.
巴菲特是慈善捐赠结转扣除。
BUFFETTA charitable deduction carry forward.
乔·科南你不能那么做。
JOEYou can’t do that.
巴菲特我向私人基金会捐赠的金额，上限是我调整后总收入的 20%。
BUFFETTWhat I give away to private foundations is limited to 20 percent of my adjusted gross income.
乔·科南没错。
JOERight.
巴菲特所以扣除完全没有——如果没有抵扣允许，我的慈善捐赠一分钱都不会少。对不少有钱人来说确实如此，但对另一些人来说并非如此。
BUFFETTSo the deduction has nothing—if there was no deduction allowed, it would not change my charitable giving a penny. And that’s true of a number of wealthy people, but there’s some other people that it’s not true of.
安德鲁对。
ANDREWRight.
乔·科南沃伦，你确实喜欢辛普森-鲍尔斯方案。
JOEYou did like Simpson-Bowles, Warren.
巴菲特我说过……
BUFFETTI said…
乔·科南我的意思是，如果我们——如果他们那样做了，而且采用了 28% 的税率，那一个人能享受的抵扣上限最高是多少？会是这样运作吗？你可以抵扣 15%，然后其他所有抵扣都没了？
JOEI mean, if we did—if they did that and did the 28 percent rate and then what would the cap be for the maximum amount of deductions a person could take? Would it work that way? You could take 15 and everything else is gone?
巴菲特这问题我没法回答。但我……
BUFFETTI don’t know the answer to that. But I…
乔·科南这能行吗？
JOEWould it work?
巴菲特但——乔，能行得通的办法其实很多。我的意思是，你知道，过去五六十年里，各种办法都曾奏效过。
BUFFETTBut I—there are a lot of things that will work, Joe. I mean, it—you know, we’ve had all kinds of things that have worked over the last 50, 60 years.
乔·科南但如果是 28% 的税率，没有抵扣项，你所有收入都得按 28% 交税，这样你就没问题了？
JOEBut you’d be OK at 28 percent if it was a—there was no deductions, and you had to pay 28 percent on all your income, that would be OK?
巴菲特我没问题。我没问题。
BUFFETTI’d be fine. I’d be fine.
乔·科南好。行吧，不是所有人都觉得这没问题。我觉得这……
JOEOK. All right. Not everybody’s fine with that. I think that’s a…
巴菲特嗯，我们有过——听着，我的意思是，我们确实有过高收入人群正常税率达到 50% 的时候。
BUFFETTWell, we’ve had—listen, I mean, we’ve had—we’ve certainly had times when the normal rate for a high-income person was at the 50 percent level.
乔·科南只不过他们有一堆其他的抵扣项目，而且……
JOEExcept they had—they had a bunch of other deductions and they…
巴菲特没有，他们没有。
BUFFETTNo, they didn’t.
乔·科南真的吗？税率 90% 的时候，他们确实有那些抵扣，对吧？
JOEReally? At 90 percent they did, right?
巴菲特不，我是说，听着，我可以给你看我的税单。过去十年，我的实际税率平均下来远低于我三四十岁的时候，而且相信我，我现在赚的钱可多多了。
BUFFETTNo, I mean, listen, I can show you my tax returns. I literally in the last 10 years, my tax rate has averaged way less than when I was in my 30s and 40s, and believe me, I’m making more money now.
安德鲁沃伦，有件事我们一直没聊，就是投资。考虑到财政悬崖和我们迄今看到的波动——未来可能还会看到更多——我想知道你现在在做什么。
ANDREWWarren, one thing we haven’t talked about is investing, and I wonder given the fiscal cliff and the volatility that we’ve seen thus far and perhaps we may see even more, what you’re doing.
巴菲特这什么也改变不了。如果你有一座农场，而且你喜欢这座农场，你会因为财政悬崖就卖掉它吗？你会卖掉手里的公寓楼吗？你会卖掉你的麦当劳特许经营权吗？
BUFFETTIt doesn’t change anything. If you own a farm and you like the farm, are you going to buy—are you going to sell the farm because of a fiscal cliff? Are you going to sell an apartment house you have? Are you going to share your McDonald’s franchise?
安德鲁不会，但如果外面有几块便宜的农场，你可能会买下来。
ANDREWNo, but if there’s a couple of cheap farms out there, you might buy them.
巴菲特嗯，你可能会买，当然。我喜欢买。但我……
BUFFETTWell, you might buy them, sure. Well, I like to buy. But I…
安德鲁你在做什么？过去几周有没有做什么有意思的事？
ANDREWWhat are you doing? Have you done anything interesting in the past couple of weeks?
巴菲特财政悬崖与长期投资决策没关系。
BUFFETTThe fiscal cliff has nothing to do with long-term investment decisions.
安德鲁那你有没有趁机加倍下注什么？趁这个价格？
ANDREWHave you doubled-up—doubled-down on anything, though? Given the price?
巴菲特嗯，总得来说，我们在买入。不过我们买入的方式跟六个月前差不多。我是说，财政悬崖并不进入我的投资决策。
BUFFETTWell, on balance, we buy. But we’re buying just like we were buying six months ago or so. I mean, the fiscal cliff does not enter into my investment decisions.
安德鲁好的。但没有新名字可以透露。
ANDREWOK. But no new names to share.
巴菲特今天不讲了。不。等我再拍一部电影的时候，我会告诉你。
BUFFETTNot today. No. When I get another movie, I’ll let you know.
安德鲁我们总得试试。
ANDREWWe’ve got to try.
乔·科南卡罗尔，卡罗尔，你呢？没有新——哦不，我已经问过了，我已经说过我不会回答那个问题了。
JOECarol, Carol, what about you? No new—oh no, I already did, I already said I wouldn’t answer that.
卡罗尔·卢米斯不……（听不清）。
LOOMISNo…(unintelligible).
安德鲁不过卡罗尔可是个大投资者。她……
ANDREWCarol’s a big investor, though. She’s…
乔·科南哦，真的吗？
JOEOh, really?
安德鲁哦，她是一位相当厉害的投资者。
ANDREWOh, she’s a great investor.
卡罗尔·卢米斯哦，这个嘛，我不会说有多出色，但这些年从沃伦那里学了不少投资方面的东西，而且我不会慌。太多——太多人情绪化得很，股票一跌就急着卖，而就像沃伦说的，他是在股票跌的时候买。我也倾向于这样做。所以我不担心。
LOOMISOh, well, I wouldn’t say great, but I’ve learned a lot from Warren over the years about investing, and I don’t panic. So many—so many people are very emotional, and when the stock goes down, they are ready to sell and as Warren says, he buys when the stock goes down. And I’m inclined to do that, too. So I’m not worried about that.
巴菲特你持有伯克希尔多久了？
BUFFETTHow long have you held Berkshire?
卡罗尔·卢米斯我从 70 年代初就持有伯克希尔了。
LOOMISI’ve held Berkshire since the early—the early ’70s.
乔·科南哦，天哪。
JOEOh my God.
卡罗尔·卢米斯我是说，我们从来没——从来没卖过。
LOOMISI mean, we’ve never—we’ve never sold.
贝基哇。
BECKYWow.
卡罗尔·卢米斯除了有一笔交易——约翰最初买入的第一年里。他确实——他在第一年里卖过一次，但除此之外，我们从来没卖过一股股票。
LOOMISExcept for one trade when—in the first year that John bought originally. He did—he did sell once in the first year, but other than that, we have never sold a share of stock.
贝基哇。
BECKYWow.
乔·科南那些也不是 B 类股，对吧？
JOEThose aren’t B shares, either, are they?
卡罗尔·卢米斯嗯，不是，谢天谢地，不是 B 类股。
LOOMISWell, no, thankfully they’re not.
乔·科南你手上有整手吗？我正想搞清楚……
JOEDo you have a round lot? I’m trying to get to the bottom…
卡罗尔·卢米斯不，不，不，不，不，不。
LOOMISNo, no, no, no, no, no.
乔·科南想把这事弄个水落石出。
JOETrying to get to the bottom of this.
卡罗尔·卢米斯不。我觉得我们做不到。事实上，我想很多细节我都已经忘了，所以忘了反而是件好事。
LOOMISNo. I think we could not. As a matter of fact, I think I’ve forgotten a lot of the details, so that’s very good that I’ve forgotten them.
贝基嘿，卡罗尔，你最早写沃伦是在 1966 年。当时你在写一篇关于阿尔弗雷德·温斯洛·琼斯的报道，在里面顺带提了一行。
BECKYHey, Carol, you first wrote about Warren back in 1966. You put one line into a story you were working on about Alfred Winslow Jones.
卡罗尔·卢米斯没错。
LOOMISThat’s right.
贝基·奎克那是一篇关于对冲基金的报道。我很好奇，这些年您一直观察对冲基金，这个行业的演变过程中，哪些地方让您感到意外？
BECKYAnd it was a story about hedge funds. And I just wonder, as you’ve watched hedge funds over the years, what’s surprised you about the way industry has evolved?
卡罗尔·卢米斯嗯，它的发展规模远远超出了我当时的预期。事实上，说到第二次——我们确实得先提一下，我第一次写关于沃伦的文章时，把他的名字拼错了。
LOOMISWell, it’s grown way beyond anything I could’ve expected. As a matter of fact, the second time—we do need to mention the first time I wrote about Warren, I misspelled his name.
贝基·奎克啊。
BECKYAh.
乔·科南是 Buffett。
JOEBuffett.
贝基·奎克对。
BECKYYeah.
卡罗尔·卢米斯我漏掉了——我漏掉了第二个“t”。
LOOMISI left off—I left off the second T.
乔·科南是。
JOEYeah.
卡罗尔·卢米斯但四年后，我写了一篇报道，标题是《对冲基金的苦日子来了》。当时对冲基金陷入了巨大的困境，不过事后证明那只是暂时的。沃伦那时正在退出这个领域。我当时根本无法想象，它们后来会发展到今天这样举足轻重的地步。而且我认为，这种演变在很大程度上——或者说在某种程度上——可能不是什么好事。
LOOMISBut then four years later, I was writing a story called “Hard Times Come to the Hedge Funds,” and it was a time, just a temporary one as it turned out, when they had enormous problems. Warren was getting out at that point. And I could not have imagined then that it would’ve—they would’ve grown to the importance that they have today. And I think much of it is—or some of it is probably not good that it worked out that way.
贝基·奎克对。我在另一个采访中听说，《跳着踢踏舞去上班》并不是您最初为这本书想出来的名字。那您最初选的是哪几个名字？
BECKYYeah. I heard in another interview that “Tap Dancing to Work” was not the first name you had come up with for the book. What were your first choices?
卡罗尔·卢米斯哦，不是，不是，那些——我觉得还是别提出版商最初想用的那个名字了。如果我说出来，我们可能得花很多时间讨论那个名字。不过，不，实际上，我现在知道了，在给一本书命名的过程中，出版商、作者和《财富》杂志之间的协商往往是非常重要的一环。我以前不习惯这个。我从没写过书，之前也真没想过自己会写一本书。所以，这事儿——我们确实花了一些时间，但没你想象的那么久。后来我想到《跳着踢踏舞去上班》，出版商立刻就拍板说：“就是它了。”事实也确实如此，因为它极为贴切地讨论了——极为贴切地描绘了沃伦每天去伯克希尔·哈撒韦上班时的心情。
LOOMISWell, no, no, they—I think I’m not going to mention the first title that the publisher wanted to use. It would—we might spend a lot of time talking about that. But no, no, actually, I gathered that negotiation between the publisher and the author and Fortune, in this case, is often a very important part of the—of the process by which a book gets named. And I wasn’t accustomed to that. Never written a book before, never really thought I was going to write a book. And so it just—it took us a while, but not as long as you’d think. And then when I came up with “Tap Dancing to Work,” the publisher immediately said, ‘That’s it.’ And it is, because it’s such a perfect discussion—perfect description of how Warren feels about going to work every day at Berkshire Hathaway.
贝基·奎克沃伦，这本书里你最喜欢哪个故事？可不准说你本人写的那几篇。
BECKYWarren, what’s your favorite story in the book? And you’re not allowed to say any of the ones that you wrote.
巴菲特噢，我写的不算。我——嗯，我觉得——不，要说最喜欢的故事，也是其中最有戏剧性的，当然就是所罗门兄弟那个故事了。我的意思是，那事儿——当时完全可以拍成一部好电影，卡罗尔知道所有的细节，我觉得她写得也相当精彩。
BUFFETTOh, not the ones I wrote. I—well, I think—no, I think the favorite story has the most drama in it, certainly, is the story of Solomon. I mean, that—that would’ve made a good movie at the time, and Carol knew all the details and I think she wrote about it brilliantly.
安德鲁·罗斯·索金嘿，两位，我昨天见到你们时，聊到了上节目要做的准备。你们昨晚上了乔恩·斯图尔特的《每日秀》。我看了几个片段，包括有人说你们是共产主义者那段，所以想请你们给这次经历打个分。
ANDREWHey, guys, I saw you guys yesterday and we were talking about preparations. You were going on “The Daily Show” last night with Jon Stewart. I saw some of the clips , including the reference to calling you communists. So I wanted to get a report card on the experience.
卡罗尔·卢米斯嗯，安德鲁，顺便说一句，你这件衬衫不错。
LOOMISWell, and Andrew, a nice shirt, by the way.
安德鲁·罗斯·索金谢谢。看来有人喜欢。
ANDREWThank you. Somebody likes it.
卡罗尔·卢米斯那次经历——那次经历确实很好玩。真的很开心。是一种全新的体验。我女儿当时就坐在观众席里。你知道，那是一种完全不同的观众群体，我们玩得非常尽兴。
LOOMISIt was—it was great fun. It really was. It’s a whole new experience. My daughter was in the audience. And you know, it’s a different class of viewer, and we had a great time.
巴菲特我们过得极其愉快。
BUFFETTWe had a terrific time.
贝基好。沃伦、卡罗尔，感谢二位今早光临。再次提醒还没见过这本书的观众，书名是《跳着踢踏舞去上班》（Tap Dancing to Work），现已发售。感谢二位今天抽出时间与我们相聚，希望很快能再见到你们两位。
BECKYAll right. Warren, Carol, thank you both for joining us this morning. Again, the book for anybody who hasn’t seen it, it’s called “Tap Dancing to Work.” It’s on sale now, and we appreciate your time joining us today. We hope to see both of you again soon.
巴菲特谢谢邀请。
BUFFETTThanks for having us.
卡罗尔·卢米斯感谢你的邀请。
LOOMISThanks for having us.