2014 年 CNBC Closing Bell 午餐后访谈
以下是非官方文字记录，源自沃伦·巴菲特 2014 年 4 月 23 日做客 CNBC 节目《收盘钟声》的现场访谈。
This is an unofficial transcript of Warren Buffett's April 23, 2014 live appearance on CNBC's "Closing Bell."
贝基·奎克我们现在就在史密斯与沃伦斯基餐厅。沃伦·巴菲特刚刚与格莱德基金会年度慈善拍卖的中标者共进了午餐。这次拍卖是去年完成的。沃伦，这已经是第 14 届年度拍卖了。至今您已为格莱德基金会筹得了 1560 万美元。我知道新一轮拍卖将在 6 月 1 日启动，为明年的午餐做准备。但今年这顿午餐感觉怎么样？
BECKY QUICKWe are at Smith and Wollensky today. Warren Buffett has just had lunch with the winners of the annual Glide Foundation Auction. This is an auction that went off last year. Warren, this was the 14th annual auction. You have now raised $15.6 million for the Glide Foundation. I know that the new auction goes up on June 1st, looking for next year. But how was lunch this year?
沃伦·巴菲特午餐非常好。我每次都很开心，这次有八个人参加——其中几位我之前就认识，他们也都会来参加股东大会，这——这——对我来说确实是种享受。
WARREN BUFFETTLunch was great. I always have a good time and there were eight people and— I knew a couple of 'em from before, they're all going to come to the annual meeting, and it— it— it's a treat for me.
贝基他们不希望公开身份。但——尽管（笑声）现场有这么多媒体，他们还是悄悄溜了出去。
BECKYThey didn't want to be identified. But— they snuck outta here with— despite (LAUGH) all the media that's here .
巴菲特是啊。是啊，他们——他们——他们确实——不想被曝光。但我们——我们——我们过得很愉快。
BUFFETTYeah. Yeah, they— they— they were— they weren't looking for publicity. But we had— we had— we had a very good time.
贝基好的，很高兴听您这么说。您在里面用餐的时候，外面出了点小新闻。我们一直在关注可口可乐的股东大会。结果现在投票结果出来了。83% 的股东投票支持了可口可乐的方案。就是那个——薪酬——股权计划。也就是说有 17% 投了反对票。您的那份股票是怎么投的？
BECKYOkay, I'm glad to hear it. While you were in there, there was a little bit of news that was happening out here. We've been hearing about the Coke shareholders meeting. It turns out that the votes are in. 83 percent of shareholders voted in favor of Coke's plan. The— compensate— equity plan. That means 17 percent voted no. How did you vote your shares?
巴菲特我们投了弃权票。这部分约占 9% 的股份。我不清楚他们——在计算那个 83% 和 17% 的比例时，有没有把这部分先剔除掉。但我们——我们——我们投的是弃权票。
BUFFETTWe abstained. So that would've been 9 percent. I don't know whether or not it's— whether they took that out before calculating the 83 percent and 17 percent. But we— we— we abstained.
贝基·奎克那 83% 是已投票数的赞成比例。您——您为什么投弃权票？
BECKYThat was 83 percent for the votes that were cast. Why— why did you abstain?
巴菲特嗯，我们投弃权票，是因为——我们不赞成这个方案。我们认为它太过度了。另外——我热爱可口可乐。我热爱它的管理层，也热爱它的董事会。但——正因如此，我不想投反对票。在可口可乐的股东大会上投反对票，有点像不爱国的行为。（笑声）所以——但这——我们——我不想流露出任何对管理层不赞同的态度。但我们确实不赞同——这个方案。与以往的方案相比，这次方案是一个重大变化。而且——目前按已发行的总股本计算，已有 9% 左右的期权悬而未决，大约是 8%——8%——8% 到 9% 的比例。然后——这次又授权发行另外 5 亿股。虽然不是全部都会用作期权，但这也相当于公司总股本的另外 11%。并且——所以——我觉得这样做过头了。而且——我跟我的合伙人查理·芒格谈过，他也觉得这样做太过分了。所以我们就投了弃权票。
BUFFETTWell, we abstained because— we didn't agree with the plan. We thought it was excessive. And— I love Coke. I love the management, I love the directors. But— so I didn't want to vote no. It's kind of un-American to vote no at a Coke meeting. So (LAUGH) that's— but we— I didn't want to express any disapproval of management. But we did disapprove of— of the plan. The plan— compared to past plans was a significant change. And— there's already a 9 percent or so overhang in terms of options outstanding relative to the amount of sh— shares outstanding, 8 percent— 8 percent— 8 percent to 9 percent. And— this authorization of another 500 million shares. Not all of which would've gone on options. But that's another 11 percent of the company. And— and— I thought it was too much. And— I talked to my partner Charlie Munger, and he thought it was too much. So we abstained.
贝基您算出来的结果，和戴维·温特斯——就是在这件事上一直非常高调的那位激进投资者——算出来的一样吗？根据他的算法——他认为这对——现有的股东——造成的稀释大约是 16%。而——穆赫塔尔·肯特代表公司给出的数据，他认为稀释更接近于 1%——
BECKYYour math, does it match up with David Winters who is— is the activist who's been very vocal about this. By his math— he thinks it would be something like— a dilution of 16 percent to— existing shareholders— that are there. And— and Muhtar Kent has up from the company and he thinks it's more like 1 percent of—
巴菲特呃，就——稀释程度而言——它——它——更接近 1% 而不是 16%——因为他们会用——他们会用在期权行权时收到的钱来回购股票。所以——所以——他们提到过，按他们所谓的期权等价计，在业绩股与期权的构成比例上，将会是 40% 和 60%。如果他们执行回购，那么稀释程度就不会——就不会低到 1%。但它——它也远不到——外面传的那些高比例数字。
BUFFETTWell, it— it— it's closer to the 1 than it is to the 16— in terms of dilution because they would repurchase— the— they would use the proceeds they received in the options to repurchase shares. So— so— they said the breakdown between giving performance shares— in terms of what they call option equivalent, it would be 40 percent down and 60 percent options. If they repurchase the shares, it would not be— it would not be as low as 1 percent. It— it would be far from the— from the higher numbers.
贝基嗯，戴维·温特斯——刚刚发表了一份声明，我看他有点抢跑了，因为他在里头批评了您。他在声明中说，“我们很惊讶，沃伦·巴菲特本来有机会对过高的管理层薪酬表明立场，却没能抓住它。”您为什么现在才告诉我们这些，而不是在投票之前？
BECKYWell, David Winters— was just out with a statement, I guess he jumped the gun a little bit, because he criticized you. He said— in his statement, that we are surprised Warren Buffett had the opportunity to take a stand against excessive management compensation and failed to seize it. Why are you telling us this now instead of before the vote?
巴菲特我——我——我——我无意站在——为任何一方拉票的立场上——我们投完票之后，投票结果自然会被大家知道。但——但——我对穆赫塔尔·肯特充满了敬重。他是掌管可口可乐的合适人选。而且——我们从来没有卖出过一股可口可乐——也从没有任何卖出可口可乐的打算。我——我尊重可口可乐这家公司。我只是不喜欢这个方案。
BUFFETTI— I— I— I would not want to be in a position of— of— campaigning for either side in respect of— we were gonna cast our vote, it would become known how we cast our vote. But— but— I have enormous respect for Muhtar Kent. He is the man to be running Coca-Cola. And— we never sold a share of Coke— never had any plans to s— sell any Coke. I— I respect the Coke organization. I just don't like the plan.
贝基您跟穆赫塔尔·肯特谈过——您对这件事的看法吗？
BECKYDid you talk to Muhtar Kent about— your thoughts on this?
巴菲特我——我谈过，但那是在——在——股东委托书已经发出之后。所以——并且——他也并没有——他事先并不知道我的看法。
BUFFETTI— I did, but it was only after the— the— the proxy was out. So and— and— and he did not have— he did not know my views ahead of time.
贝基您——您的儿子是可口可乐的董事。他投票支持了这个方案。
BECKYYour— your son is on the board of Coca-Cola. He voted in favor of this plan.
巴菲特这——确实如此。我——我在董事会待了 55 年，担任过 19 家上市公司的董事，从没听过有人对薪酬委员会通过的薪酬方案投反对票。董事会内部的情况——我觉得人们有时对董事会的运作方式有误解。但——薪酬委员会进来了，他们工作了几个小时，也许几天，还请了顾问。然后他们说，“我们批准了这个方案。”在我待过的 19 个董事会里，我从没听过有人在会上表示反对。倒是听少数人在会外说过。不过——去挑战一个已汇报工作的委员会——你把活派给了委员会，再去挑他们的毛病——这有点像在餐桌上打嗝。我是说，你——
BUFFETTThat— that's true. The— I— I've been on boards for 55 years— 19 public boards— I've never heard of a vote against the compensation plan voted by compensation committee. What happens in a board, I— I think people sometimes have a mistaken notion of how boards act. But— the compensation com— committee comes in, they've worked for a few hours, maybe a few days, they've had consultants. And— and they say, "We've approved this plan." I've never yet heard at any of the 19 boards I was on, anybody say in the meeting they were against it. And I've had— heard a few say it outside of the meeting. But— but taking on a committee that's reported, you've assigned— the job to the committee, and they k— taking them on it is— is— is a little bit like belching at the dinner table. I mean, you
不能太经常这么干。（笑声）要是太频繁，你很快就会发现你只能在厨房里吃饭了。
can't do it too often. (LAUGH) If you do, you find you’re eating in the kitchen pretty soon.
贝基您担任董事时，有没有投票支持过自己并不赞同的方案？
BECKYDid you ever vote for something when you were on a board that you disagreed with?
巴菲特当然有。
BUFFETTSure.
贝基比如呢？
BECKYLike what?
巴菲特呃，我投票支持过自己并不认同的薪酬方案。但我——我甚至在一些我觉得毫无意义的并购案上，也跟着含糊地咕哝了一声“同意”。（笑声）不过这种事——确实会发生。
BUFFETTWell, I've voted for compensation plans that I haven't agreed with. But I— I've even sort of muttered a yes on— on some mergers that (LAUGH) I didn't think made any sense. But that— it happens.
贝基你知道，我——我还是有点搞不明白。你——当时选择——投弃权票。但在戴维·温特斯指出这件事之前，你有没有看过这个薪酬方案，或者看过那个——股权计划？
BECKYYou know, I— I'm still trying to get my head around this. You— went ahead and— abstained to vote on this. But did you look at this compensation plan or did you look at the— equity plan before David Winters pointed it out?
巴菲特我——我——我是在那——那之后才读了全部细节。我——我——我——我只是还没学到那份材料。但在 2002 年，可口可乐有一个涉及 2.4 亿股的计划，执行了六年。六年后的 2008 年，他们又有一个 2.8 亿股的计划，也执行了六年。然后这次的方案，我看到的时候，是 5 亿股。他们把这折算成 3.4 亿股。但不管怎样，3.4 亿还是 5 亿。而且他们说，要在四年内用完。这——这确实让我觉得相当过分。所以——我——我实际上是在温特斯写了那封信之后才读到细节，但我的感受是一样的。
BUFFETTI— I— I read the full details actually after— after that. I— I— I— I just hadn't learned the material yet. But in 2002, Coke had a plan that involved 240 million shares. That lasted six years. They had a plan in 2008, six years later, that was 280 million shares. And that lasted six years. And then this plan, when I read about it was for 500 million shares. Which they would equate to 340 million. But still, 340 or 500. And they were gonna use it, they said, in four years. And that— that really struck me as quite excessive. So— I— I didn't actually read that until after Winters wrote the letter. But I would've felt the same way.
贝基不过现在的情况是，这一次，公司又拿到了 83% 的实际投票支持率。你觉得他们接下来会怎么做？
BECKYThis is a situation now ,though, that the company again, had 83 percent of the votes that were cast voting in favor of it. What do you think they'll do now?
巴菲特嗯，我——我——我不知道这个问题的答案。他们——他们已经拿到了那些股票的授权。他们在报告里说，预计这些股票够用四年。我希望实际能用得比四年久得多，因为我觉得，在四年时间里发行那么多作为期权或绩效股等价物的股份，确实过头了。
BUFFETTWell, I— I— I don't know the answer to that. They— they have the stock authorized. They said in the report that they expected it to last four years. I hope it lasts a lot longer than that, because I think that would be excessive to issue that number of shares that are options, or performance shares equivalence— in a fouryear period.
贝基所以，如果他们只是把发行这些股票的时间拉长几年，你就可以接受这个方案了？
BECKYSo if they simply extended the number of years that they were to take to issue those, you'd be okay with the plan?
巴菲特当然。我的意思是，这——这真的只取决于你持续发行了多少。你每年把多少未来的上升收益让渡出去。而——目前，已发行的期权已经分走了一只股票大约 8% 到 9% 的上行空间。那已经是发出去了。他们年复一年地不停发行期权。我的意思是，任何一个在那里工作了十年的人，都——
BUFFETTSure. I mean, it's— it really just depends on how much you're issuing all the time. How much of the future upside you're giving away each year. And— right now, something between 8 and 9 percent of the upside of a stock is covered by options already issued. That's out there. And they’ve been issuing options year after year after year. I mean, so anybody who's worked there for ten years has got—
大概都拿到了十年的期权。这并不是说激励机制不够。但你可能把公司让渡得太多。
probably got ten years worth of options. It isn't like incentives are lacking. But you can give away too much of a company.
贝基你会卖掉可口可乐的股票吗？你有卖出过可口可乐的股票吗？
BECKYWill you sell any shares of Coca-Cola? Have you sold any shares of CocaCola?
巴菲特不不不。完全没有卖股票的打算。我——我非常喜爱这家公司，并且我——我认为眼下管理它的那位首席执行官正好是合适的人选。我认为它的前景也很好。
贝基：而且你——你以前说过，人们应该买那些“连火腿三明治都能管好”的公司。你甚至说过，可口可乐就是那种连火腿三明治都能管好的企业——
BUFFETTNo, no, no. And no intention whatsoever of selling shares. I— I love the company and I— and I think that the exact— the— the right CEO is running it. And I think it's— it’s got a fine future. BECKY: And you— you've said in the past that people should buy companies that could be run by a ham sandwich. And you've even said Coca-Cola is one of those companies that could be run by a ham sandwich—
巴菲特我不认为我说过那话。（笑）
BUFFETTI don't think I said that. (LAUGH)
贝基·奎克我想这句话是引自《雪球》那本书。是——《雪球》里的一句原话。
BECKYI'm quoting it from “The Snowball,” I think. It was— it was a quote from “The Snowball.”
巴菲特嗯，那话是艾丽斯·施罗德说的，没错。（笑声）
BUFFETTWell, then Alice Schroeder said it, yeah. (LAUGH)
贝基·奎克所以艾丽斯·施罗德说您确实讲过这话。
BECKYSo Alice Schroeder said that you have said that.
巴菲特不不，事实上，我相当确定我从没说过那句话。我——我觉得我知道是谁说的，但我不打算点名。（笑声）
BUFFETTNo, no. In fact, I'm quite sure I never said that. I— I think I know who said it, but I'm not gonna name him. (LAUGHTER)
贝基·奎克不过我觉得这又回到了那个问题——一家公司由一位出色的管理者来掌舵，这重不重要？
BECKYI guess that's what it gets back to the question, though— is it important to have a great manager running that company?
巴菲特这一点——这一点——这一点极为重要。就是——极为重要。而且——实际上——那——那个——可口可乐有一段时间，在罗伯塔——罗伯托（戈伊苏埃塔）离开后，做得不太好，而穆塔（肯特）是——是——是管理公司的合适人选，由谁来掌舵确实大不一样。
BUFFETTIt's— it's— it's hugely important. Just— hugely important. And— and actually— the— the— Coca-Cola for a while, after Roberta— Roberto (Goizueta) left with—was not doing so well, and Muhtar is— is— is the right person to be running it and it makes a big difference who's running it.
贝基·奎克我想问问您持有的另一只股票，IBM。这家公司发布了一份令人失望的财报，营收又下滑了一个季度。这令华尔街颇感意外。有些人猜测——坊间有传闻——说您已经对这只股票失去信心了。是这样吗？
BECKYLet me ask you about another stock that you own, IBM. That company came out with— a disappointing— earnings report, revenue was down for another quarter. And that surprised the Street. Some people have suggested that—there were rumors floating around - that you have soured on the stock. Have ya?
巴菲特这消息不属实。不。实际上我今年还买了几股。
BUFFETTThat's not true. No. I've— I've actually bought a few shares this year.
贝基·奎克您今年买了 IBM 的股票？
BECKYYou've bought stock in IBM this year?
巴菲特而且我——我从来没卖过一股，就这样。
BUFFETTAnd I've— I've never sold a share, so.
贝基·奎克是那份最新财报发布以来吗？
BECKYSince the earnings report that came out?
巴菲特不，不是今年那份盈利报告发布以来。但那份盈利报告本不该令人意外。实际上，它与一个季度前他们自己在电话会上说的基本吻合——我记得他们的收入在货币成本基础上下降了 2%。这在我的意料之中。而且我认为他们并没有说出什么新内容。他们早些时候提过，预计赚 250 左右。他们——他们提前就释放了信号，说基本上要针对裁员计提一笔费用。所以我认为——他们报告的内容并不让我觉得算什么大意外。不过，一年后或两年后或许会有意外。但就他们报告的数字而言，我并没有感到意外。
贝基·奎克：您会继续增持 IBM 的股票吗？今年早些时候您买了一些。您会继续买吗？
BUFFETTNo, not since the earnings report this year. But the earnings report should not have been a surprise. It was actually roughly what they said in their earnings call a quarter earlier, their— their revenues were down 2 percent I think on— on a cost-of-currency basis. And— and I expected that. And— and I don't think they said any different. They said earlier they expected to earn about 250. They— they signaled the charge they were gonna make ahead of time— for— layoffs essentially. So I— I— it did not strike me as a big surprise— what they reported. Now, it may be a surprise a year from now or two years from now. But I— I have not been surprised by what they've reported. BECKY: Would you buy additional shares of IBM? You bought some earlier this year. Would you continue to buy?
巴菲特得看价格。（笑）
BUFFETTDepends on the price. (LAUGH)
贝基·奎克今天的股价，我想大概在一百左右——
BECKYThe price today, I think it's trading at about a hundred—
巴菲特191 美元。
BUFFETT$191.
贝基·奎克最新成交价 191.63 美元。（笑）我想您的——您的——平均成本大概在 173 美元附近。我回看年报，我想您赚了约 12%。您的买入成本大约是 116.8 亿美元，现在价值接近 130.5 亿美元。那么，合理的价格是多少？
BECKY$191.63 (LAUGH) on the last trade. I think your— your— average cost was somewhere closer to $173. I look back and— in the annual report, I think you've seen a gain of about 12 percent. You bought it at a cost of around $11.68 billion. It's now worth closer to $13.05 billion. So, what is the right price?
巴菲特这些数字都是你一直记在脑子里的。（笑）
BUFFETTThese are just figures you carry around in your head all the time. (LAUGH)
贝基没有，我刚才得低头看下笔记才想起来。
BECKYNo, I had to look down at my notes for that.
巴菲特我们可以买。但——我是说，我——我不——我不会宣布我们要买什么或卖什么。但我——我——我——我——我不会排除这种可能性。我就是花那么多钱买的这只股票。
BUFFETTWe could buy it. But— I mean, I— I don't— I don't announce anything we're gonna buy or sell. But I— I— I— I— I wouldn't rule it out. I paid that much for the stock.
贝基好的，行。今年早些时候，你们确实买了那家公司的股票。我还想问一下，总的来说，你对积极投资（activist investing）怎么看？首先，大卫·温特斯（David Winters）。你怎么看大卫·温特斯？因为——今天早上有人称他为“牛虻”。他算是伊芙琳·Y·戴维斯（Evelyn Y. Davis）那种人吗？
BECKYOkay, all right, so earlier this year, you actually were buying shares of that. Can I ask you also about just activist investing in general. First of all, David Winters. What do you think of David Winters because— one person this morning actually called him a gadfly. Is he Evelyn Y. Davis?
巴菲特哦，不，他不是个爱挑刺的人。我是说——他有 250 万美元。我——我觉得他持有这只股票很多年了。顺便说一句，在他把信公开之后，我们也收到了其他持大额股份的股东的来信，他们也有同样的感受。我不知道他们是怎么投票的。但是——
BUFFETTOh no, he's not a gadfly. I mean— he's got $2.5 million. I— I think he's owned the stock for many years. And incidentally, we've heard from— other shareholders after he made his letter public that owned large blocks of stock that felt the same way. I don't know how they voted. But— the—
贝基可口可乐的股东？
BECKYCoca-Cola shareholders?
巴菲特可口可乐的股东。而且——我是说——没错，这事需要股东投票表决。我的意思是，你得——在这件事上投下你的票。然后——他不同意这么做。我也不同意。我没有投反对票，我投了弃权。但这完全合乎情理。但如果你要把公司的一部分送出去——股东确实应该对此投票决定。
BUFFETTCoca-Cola shareholders. And— and I'm being— yeah, that's an issue that comes to the shareholders to vote on. I mean, the— you're expected to cast your vote— on the issue. And— and he disagreed with it. I disagreed. I didn't vote against it, I abstained. But it's a perfectly proper thing. But if you're s— going to give away a part of the company— shareholders should probably vote on it.
贝基我们——我们看到了——维权投资者翻出各种各样的——新花样，编出新剧本。比尔·阿克曼刚跟凡利亚联手，盯上艾尔建。他说已经有另一家上市公司找过他，想让他帮忙对付一个目标。这事你觉得奇怪吗？公平吗？听起来像抢跑吗？
BECKYWe—we have seen — activist investors take all kinds of— of new pages and create new playbooks. Bill Ackman just teaming up with Valeant to go after Allergan. He's said that he's already heard from another public company who has identified a target they'd like him to help out with, too. Does any of this strike you as strange? Does it seem like fair behavior? Does it sound like front-running?
巴菲特我不知道。他——他——他跟凡利亚之间到底签了什么协议，我真不清楚。
BUFFETTI don't know. It— it— it's— I don't know the arrangement he had with Valeant. I mean—
贝基他和 Valeant 凑到了一起。那是 Valeant 的主意。Valeant 在这笔交易里投了些钱跟他合作。他们同意联手去干这件事。然后他买下了 9.7% 的股份——
BECKYHe and Valeant got together. It was Valeant's idea. Valeant put some money into this deal with him. They agreed to go after it together. And then he bought the stake of 9.7 percent—
巴菲特是的。
BUFFETTYeah.
贝基——9.6%。
BECKY—9.6 percent.
巴菲特对。我猜他在这事上咨询过法律意见，然后——
BUFFETTYeah. My guess is he had legal advice on it and—
贝基他确实——
BECKYHe did—
巴菲特而且——
BUFFETTAnd—
贝基罗伯特·库扎米告诉他，他觉得这样没问题。
BECKYRobert Khuzami told him he thought it was fine.
巴菲特是的，而且我觉得如果瓦兰特自己买下这家公司，我不会认为他们有什么问题。我觉得——
BUFFETTYeah, and I think if Valeant had bought it itself, I don't think they have a problem. I think that-
贝基嗯，只不过瓦兰特没法买——另一家——另一家制药公司那么大的股份。我觉得他们实际能买多少股票是有上限的。
BECKYWell, except that Valeant can't buy— that big of a stake in another— in another maker. I think they were limitations to how much stock they could actually buy.
巴菲特嗯。这个问题我可答不上来。（笑声）
BUFFETTYeah. I don't know the answer to that one. (LAUGH)
贝基您是否觉得，激进投资者正变得越来越强势？是不是有——
BECKYDoes it strike you that activist investors are getting stronger and stronger? Are there—
巴菲特哦，他们确实是。
BUFFETTOh, they are.
贝基——首席执行官们——
BECKY—CEOs—
巴菲特确实如此。确实如此。CEO 们怕极了激进投资者。这个我可以告诉你们。（笑声）他们个个都在找投资银行家和律师商量，问“我们该怎么办？”
BUFFETTThey are. They are. The CEOs are terrified of activists. I can— I can tell you that. (LAUGH) They're all talking to investment bankers and lawyers and saying, "What do we do about this?”
贝基谁是对的？或者说，是不是很难对所有激进投资者一概而论？
BECKYWho is in the right? Or is it tough to paint all activist investors with one brush?
巴菲特我觉得这事儿没法一概而论。有些公司——嗯——管理层做得确实不怎么样，我这里不是指任何具体公司。但我的意思是——如果有人想站出来大量买进一家公司的股票，那——很难说人家没这个权利。
BUFFETTI don't think you can generalize about it. I think there— there are companies that— that— where management has not done a good job, and I'm not— referring to anything specific here. But I mean — certainly if people want to step up and buy a lot of the stock in a company, I— it's hard to argue with their right to do that.
贝基有一些道琼斯指数的主要成分股被提到是潜在收购目标，甚至有人提到了 IBM。你觉得这对股东是有利还是有害？
BECKYThere have been— major Dow components that have been mentioned as potential takeover targets, even an IBM, some people have suggested. Do you think that would be for the good of shareholders or to the detriment?
巴菲特（清嗓子）呃，我认为这得具体情况具体分析。但——我——我——我并没有指望任何人在 IBM 身上这样做。
BUFFETT(THROAT CLEAR) Well, I think it would be case by case. But I— I— I— I'm not looking for anybody to do that in IBM.
贝基好的。我还想跟您聊聊大卫·艾因霍恩。他刚刚在说，他觉得可能又一次看到科技股泡沫在形成。他提到了“酷孩子股票”。我猜您能猜出来，他指的是像 Facebook 这样的公司，或者一些股价飙升得很猛的互联网大公司。他现在做空了一篮子这类股票，因为他觉得现在的样子跟 2001 年之前很像。您当年就是那些没看懂科技公司估值的人。您现在看今天的科技股，有看到类似的迹象吗？
BECKYOkay. Also I'd like to talk to you a little bit about that David Einhorn. He was just out talking about how he sees a potential tech bubble building once again. He talked about the cool-kid stocks. And I guess you can—(infer) from that he means companies like a Facebook. Or some of these big— internet companies that have soared very rapidly. He’s shorting a basket of these stocks now because he thinks it looks like it did— back before 2001. You were somebody who didn't understand valuations with the technology companies back then. Do you see similar characteristics to the technology stocks today?
巴菲特我不觉得现在像 2000 年——（清嗓子）——像 2001 年之前那段时期。我不觉得——有很多公司的估值我看不懂。但这种情况一直都有。然后你进入像 2001 年之前那样的时期，那时候你几乎什么都能卖，把眼球变现之类的。我——我——我不觉得现在到了那个程度，而且我当然不认为整体市场水平会泡沫化。
BUFFETTI don't think it's like two-thousand — (THROAT CLEAR) the— the period prior to 2001. I don't— there are a lotta s— companies whose valuations I don't understand. But that's always been true. And— and then you get into a period like right before 2001 where you could almost sell anything and capitalize eyeballs and all of that. I— I— I don't think it's reached that point, and certainly I don't think the general market level is going to bubble up.
贝基嗯，这——这是个有意思的观点。我们离历史高点并不远。道琼斯指数和标普 500 指数距离最高点大概都不到 1%。您不觉得市场有点过热了吗？
BECKYWell, that— that's an interesting point. We're not far off of all-time highs. It's probably less than a percent for both the Dow and the S&P 500. You don't feel like things are getting too frothy here?
巴菲特不，不。我觉得我们在一个区间里——这个区间很大，合理性的范围总是很大的。但——但股票每十年都应该更高一些才对。
BUFFETTNo, no. I think we're— in a range— and it's— it's a big zone, it's a big zone always of reasonableness. But— but stocks ought to be higher every ten years.
我的意思是，利润年复一年地再投入进去。股票的价值会十年接十年地增长，不是精确地、平稳地增长，也不是诸如此类的增长方式。但十年后、二十年后、三十年后，股票会比今天更值钱。
I mean, there's a plow back of earnings that goes back year after years. Stocks will become worth more decade after decade, not in any precise manner, not in an even manner or anything of the sort. But ten years, 20 years, 30 years from now, stocks will be worth more than they are today.
贝基·奎克不过你以前就对估值感到过担忧。对你来说，什么会是一个警示信号？什么会真的让你开始三思是否还要继续买入更多股票？
BECKYYou’ve gotten concerned about valuations in the past, though. What— what would be a warning signal to you? What would be something that would— would really start to make you think twice about buying more stocks?
巴菲特那就是估值。我是说，如果——如果——如果数字变得——如果多数股票的价格相对于其盈利飙到了令人眩晕的水平，那我就会说，我们——你知道，我们正处于那种股票跑得过快的时期之一。
BUFFETTIt would be valuation. I mean, the— the— the— if the numbers got— if prices got to nosebleed levels compared to earnings for many stocks generally, then I would say we— you know, we’re in one of those periods when stocks got ahead of themselves.
贝基这是——
BECKYIs that—
巴菲特但股票——股票确实会随着时间推移变得更值钱，因为公司把赚到的大部分钱都留了下来。
BUFFETTBut stocks— stocks do get worth more over time because companies retained a lot of what they earned.
贝基但那是用预期盈利算的市盈率吗？这是衡量价值的最好方法吗？
BECKYBut is that just P/E ratios for forward earnings? Is that the best way of measuring it?
巴菲特是的，最终，一只股票今天的价值，等于从现在到世界末日之间你能拿到的所有现金总和。价格越高——如果现金分配不变（笑声）——到某个点上，它就超前了。
BUFFETTYeah, and it— in the end, a stock today is worth all of the cash you can distribute between now and Judgment Day. And the higher the price goes, it— if the distribution doesn't change (LAUGH) at some point it gets ahead of itself.
贝基再问一个关于即将召开的股东大会的问题。你在致股东的信里说，今年股东大会要找一位能坐下来提问的“熊市专家”。我猜今年不会真有头熊来现场。我听说，主持会议的是晨星公司的一位分析师。怎么回事？
BECKYLet me ask you also just about the annual meeting coming up. In your annual letter to shareholders, you said that you'd be looking for a bear who could sit and ask questions at the annual meeting. I take it you don't have a bear who's going to be coming this year. I’ve heard it’s Morningstar, the analyst there, who will be handling it. What happened?
巴菲特嗯，大概一周前，我们放弃了——再也听不到任何有资历的空头做空这支股票的消息了。所以，大概一周前，我们离股东大会越来越近了，而且——我们——我们在前排多了第六个提问席（笑）。所以——晨星（Morningstar）之前给我写过信，说希望有空缺时能让他们的分析师来。于是我就回信说——“今年来吧。”
BUFFETTWell, we gave up about a week ago— hearing from any credentialed bear that was short the stock. So, about a week ago we were getting close to the annual meeting, and — we had— we've got a sixth seat down there in front (LAUGH) in terms of questioners. So— Morningstar had written me— previously in saying they hoped that when a vacancy showed up that they can have their analyst come. And so I wrote 'em and said— "Come this year."
贝基伯克希尔上没有看空的人？我们是不是可以理解为没人申请这个？
BECKYThere are no bears on Berkshire? Are we to understand that no one applied for this?
巴菲特嗯，我——我——有些地方会公布空头头寸数据，所以我不知道我们能不能追踪到那些人。但——我们确实没发现任何人——对它有——真正的空头兴趣。
BUFFETTWell, I— I— somewhere they publish short interest, so I don't know whether we can trace any of those people down. But— we did not find anybody that— that had— a real bear interest in it.
贝基好的。
BECKYAll right.
巴菲特可能确实存在这样的人，但他们或许不想露面。
BUFFETTThey're probably out there, but— maybe they didn't want to surface.
贝基好的。嗯，沃伦，非常感谢你今天抽出时间。
BECKYAll right. Well, Warren, I want to thank you very much for your time today.
巴菲特谢谢。
BUFFETTThank you.
贝基我们非常感激。
BECKYWe really appreciate it.
巴菲特好，谢谢——
BUFFETTOkay, thank you—
贝基我们——希望能很快再跟您聊。
BECKYAnd—we hope to talk to you again soon.
巴菲特好，好。
BUFFETTGood, good.
贝基各位观众，刚才沃伦·巴菲特和——比尔在节目中，我们把画面交还给演播室。但——重点新闻是沃伦·巴菲特投了弃权票，他代表的是伯克希尔·哈撒韦所持的股份。他是可口可乐的最大股东。所以——他投了弃权票——我记得大约是 9.6% 的股份——
BECKYAgain, Warren Buffett and— Bill on the show, we will send it back to you. But— the news is that Warren Buffett abstained Berkshire shares. He is the largest shareholder in Coca-Cola. So that's— abstaining— I think something like 9.6 percent—
比尔·格里菲斯九——没错。
BILL GRIFFETHNine— yup.
巴菲特嗯，可能更接近 9.1。我们——我们有 4 亿股，他们总共有 44 亿股流通股。
BUFFETTWell, maybe more like 9.1. We have— we have 400 million shares and they have 4.4 billion outstanding.
贝基对，超过 9%，大概是 9.1% 的流通股——这个股权方案确实以实际投票数 83% 的赞成票通过了。但各位，我把画面交回给你们——
BECKYRight, greater than 9 percent, maybe 9.1 percent of the shares outstanding that vote on— the equity plan did pass by the votes that were cast by 83 percent. But guys, I'll send it back over to you—
比尔·格里菲斯非常有意思，贝基。
BILLVery interesting, Becky.
米歇尔·卡鲁索-卡布雷拉但他还是不同意这个方案。
MICHELLE CARUSO-CABRERABut still, he disagreed with the plan.
比尔·格里菲斯嗯——确实——
BILLWell— exactly—
米歇尔这很令人吃惊。是啊。（笑）
MICHELLEIt's startling. Yeah. (LAUGH)
比尔·格里菲斯谢谢你，贝基。
BILLThank you, Becky.