1986 年致股东信
致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的各位股东:
To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:
1986 年我们的净资产增长了 4.925 亿美元,增幅 26.1%。过去 22 年(即从现任管理层接手以来),每股账面价值从 19.46 美元增长到 2073.06 美元,年复利增长 23.3%。在每股账面价值的计算中,分子和分母都至关重要:在这 22 年间,公司净资产增长了 10600%,而流通股数量增长不到 1%。
Our gain in net worth during 1986 was $492.5 million, or 26.1%. Over the last 22 years (that is, since present management took over), our per-share book value has grown from $19.46 to $2,073.06, or 23.3% compounded annually. Both the numerator and denominator are important in the per-share book value calculation: during the 22-year period our corporate net worth has increased 10,600% while shares outstanding have increased less than 1%.
在以往的报告里,我提过多数公司的账面价值与实际业务价值——即真正对所有者有意义的那个数字——存在巨大差异。不过,就我们自己而言,十多年来账面价值一直充当着业务价值的合理估算,虽然略显保守。也就是说,我们的业务价值略高于账面价值,两者之间的比率一直保持相对稳定。
In past reports I have noted that book value at most companies differs widely from intrinsic business value - the number that really counts for owners. In our own case, however, book value has served for more than a decade as a reasonable if somewhat conservative proxy for business value. That is, our business value has moderately exceeded our book value, with the ratio between the two remaining fairly steady.
好消息是,1986 年我们业务价值的百分比增长很可能超过了账面价值的增长。我说“很可能”,是因为业务价值是个弹性数字:就我们自身情况而言,两位同样消息灵通的观察者给出的判断,差距可能超过 10%。
The good news is that in 1986 our percentage gain in business value probably exceeded the book value gain. I say "probably" because business value is a soft number: in our own case, two equally well-informed observers might make judgments more than 10% apart.
我们商业价值的提升,相对于账面价值的较大增幅,很大程度上归功于我们各大主营运营业务中杰出管理者的卓越表现。这些管理者——布拉姆金家族、迈克·戈德堡、赫尔德曼家族、查克·哈金斯、斯坦·利普西和拉尔夫·谢伊——多年来显著提升了各自业务的盈利水平,且除保险业务外,几乎未动用额外资本。这一成就所积累的经济价值,即“商誉”,既未体现在我们资产负债表的净资产数字上,也未计入每股账面价值。1986 年,这笔未记录的增益相当可观。
A large measure of our improvement in business value relative to book value reflects the outstanding performance of key managers at our major operating businesses. These managers - the Blumkins, Mike Goldberg, the Heldmans, Chuck Huggins, Stan Lipsey, and Ralph Schey - have over the years improved the earnings of their businesses dramatically while, except in the case of insurance, utilizing little additional capital. This accomplishment builds economic value, or "Goodwill," that does not show up in the net worth figure on our balance sheet, nor in our per-share book value. In 1986 this unrecorded gain was substantial.
好消息就说到这里。坏消息是,我的业绩比不上我们旗下经理们的表现。他们打理生意干得极为出色,可我未能将资金巧妙配置到位。
So much for the good news. The bad news is that my performance did not match that of our managers. While they were doing a superb job in running our businesses, I was unable to skillfully deploy much of the capital they generated.
我们的副董事长查理·芒格和我,其实只有两项工作。一是吸引并留住出色的经理人来打理我们的各项业务。这事儿并不难。通常,这些经理人是随我们收购的公司一起来的,他们在整个职业生涯中,经历了各种各样的商业环境,早已证明了自己的才华。他们在认识我们之前就是管理明星,我们的主要贡献就是别去妨碍他们。这办法听着挺简单:要是我的工作是管一支高尔夫球队,而杰克·尼克劳斯或阿诺德·帕尔默愿意为我打球,那我绝不会对他们怎么挥杆指手画脚。
Charlie Munger, our Vice Chairman, and I really have only two jobs. One is to attract and keep outstanding managers to run our various operations. This hasnt been all that difficult. Usually the managers came with the companies we bought, having demonstrated their talents throughout careers that spanned a wide variety of business circumstances. They were managerial stars long before they knew us, and our main contribution has been to not get in their way. This approach seems elementary: if my job were to manage a golf team - and if Jack Nicklaus or Arnold Palmer were willing to play for me - neither would get a lot of directives from me about how to swing.
我们一些关键的管理者个人已经相当富有(我们希望他们都能如此),但这不会影响他们的持续投入:他们工作是因为热爱所做的事情,并享受卓越表现带来的兴奋感。他们始终以主人的方式思考(这是我们能给予一位管理者的最高赞誉),并觉得业务的方方面面都极具吸引力。
Some of our key managers are independently wealthy (we hope they all become so), but that poses no threat to their continued interest: they work because they love what they do and relish the thrill of outstanding performance. They unfailingly think like owners (the highest compliment we can pay a manager) and find all aspects of their business absorbing.
(我们对职业热忱的典范,是一位天主教裁缝,他用多年攒下的微薄积蓄,资助了一次前往梵蒂冈的朝圣之旅。归来后,他的教区特意召开会议,想听他亲口讲述教皇的模样。“告诉我们,”热切的信徒们问道,“他究竟是个怎样的人?”我们的英雄言简意赅:“他是个四十四码,中等身材。”)
(Our prototype for occupational fervor is the Catholic tailor who used his small savings of many years to finance a pilgrimage to the Vatican. When he returned, his parish held a special meeting to get his first-hand account of the Pope. "Tell us," said the eager faithful, "just what sort of fellow is he?" Our hero wasted no words: "Hes a forty-four, medium.")
查理和我清楚,只要球员选对了,几乎任何球队经理都能干得漂亮。我们信奉奥美创始人戴维·奥格威这位天才信条:“如果我们个个都招比自己矮的人,公司就会变成矮子国;可要是人人都招比自己高的人,公司就成了巨人帮。”
Charlie and I know that the right players will make almost any team manager look good. We subscribe to the philosophy of Ogilvy & Mathers founding genius, David Ogilvy: "If each of us hires people who are smaller than we are, we shall become a company of dwarfs. But, if each of us hires people who are bigger than we are, we shall become a company of giants."
我们的管理风格有一个副产品:它让我们能轻松拓展伯克希尔的业务。我们读过不少管理学专著,里面明确规定一位高管手下该有多少人,但这些条条框框对我们没什么意义。如果你手下的经理人个个能力强、品格高,又对自己经营的业务充满热情,那么哪怕有十几个人向你汇报,你照样能腾出时间睡个午觉。反过来,只要有一个向你汇报的人既狡诈又无能,或者心不在焉,你就忙不过来了。查理和我完全能应付现在两倍的经理人数,前提是他们具备现任这批人那样难得的好品质。
A by-product of our managerial style is the ability it gives us to easily expand Berkshires activities. Weve read management treatises that specify exactly how many people should report to any one executive, but they make little sense to us. When you have able managers of high character running businesses about which they are passionate, you can have a dozen or more reporting to you and still have time for an afternoon nap. Conversely, if you have even one person reporting to you who is deceitful, inept or uninterested, you will find yourself with more than you can handle. Charlie and I could work with double the number of managers we now have, so long as they had the rare qualities of the present ones.
我们打算继续坚持只和我们喜欢、敬佩的人共事的做法。这一原则不仅让我们取得好结果的概率最大化,也保证我们能过得特别开心。反过来,和那些让你胃里翻江倒海的人合作,就好比为钱结婚——在任何情况下都可能是馊主意,可如果你已经很有钱,那简直是彻头彻尾的疯狂。
We intend to continue our practice of working only with people whom we like and admire. This policy not only maximizes our chances for good results, it also ensures us an extraordinarily good time. On the other hand, working with people who cause your stomach to churn seems much like marrying for money - probably a bad idea under any circumstances, but absolute madness if you are already rich.
我和查理要处理的第二项工作是资本配置,这在伯克希尔比在大多数公司都重要得多。原因有三:我们赚的钱比一般公司多;我们留存全部利润;而且我们有幸拥有多数业务,在保持竞争力并实现增长方面,几乎不需要额外资本。显然,一家年回报率 23% 并留存全部利润的公司,其未来结果受当下资本配置的影响,远大于一家年回报率 10% 并将一半利润分给股东的公司。如果我们留存收益——以及我们主要投资对象 GEICO 和大都会/美国广播公司(Capital Cities/ABC, Inc.)的留存收益——用在不产生效益的地方,伯克希尔的经济状况会很快恶化。在一家净资产年增长仅 5% 的公司,资本配置决策虽然仍然重要,但改变公司经济面貌的速度会慢得多。
The second job Charlie and I must handle is the allocation of capital, which at Berkshire is a considerably more important challenge than at most companies. Three factors make that so: we earn more money than average; we retain all that we earn; and, we are fortunate to have operations that, for the most part, require little incremental capital to remain competitive and to grow. Obviously, the future results of a business earning 23% annually and retaining it all are far more affected by todays capital allocations than are the results of a business earning 10% and distributing half of that to shareholders. If our retained earnings - and those of our major investees, GEICO and Capital Cities/ABC, Inc. - are employed in an unproductive manner, the economics of Berkshire will deteriorate very quickly. In a company adding only, say, 5% to net worth annually, capital- allocation decisions, though still important, will change the companys economics far more slowly.
1986 年伯克希尔的资本配置工作十分棘手。我们确实完成了一笔企业收购——费希海默兄弟公司,将在后文详述。费希海默是一家经济特性极佳的公司,经营者正是我们乐于合作的那类人。但它的规模相对较小,仅占伯克希尔净资产的约 2%。
Capital allocation at Berkshire was tough work in 1986. We did make one business acquisition - The Fechheimer Bros. Company, which we will discuss in a later section. Fechheimer is a company with excellent economics, run by exactly the kind of people with whom we enjoy being associated. But it is relatively small, utilizing only about 2% of Berkshires net worth.
与此同时,在可交易股票领域,我们并没有新的点子——这个领域就在几年前还能让我们轻松地将大笔资金投入到优质企业中,且价格合理。因此,1986 年我们的主要资本配置动作是偿还债务和积累资金。这两者虽都不至于让人痛不欲生,但也绝不令人振奋。如果查理和我在资本配置上连续几年一无所获,伯克希尔的增长速度将会显著放缓。
Meanwhile, we had no new ideas in the marketable equities field, an area in which once, only a few years ago, we could readily employ large sums in outstanding businesses at very reasonable prices. So our main capital allocation moves in 1986 were to pay off debt and stockpile funds. Neither is a fate worse than death, but they do not inspire us to do handsprings either. If Charlie and I were to draw blanks for a few years in our capital-allocation endeavors, Berkshires rate of growth would slow significantly.
我们会继续寻找符合我们检验标准的经营业务,运气好的话,每隔几年能收购一家这样的企业。但要显著提升我们的业绩,收购就得是大手笔。在当前股市条件下,我们对为保险公司买入股票几乎不抱希望。市场会发生重大变化——这点你可以确信,总有一天我们会再次轮到上场击球。只是,我们丝毫不知道那会是什么时候。
We will continue to look for operating businesses that meet our tests and, with luck, will acquire such a business every couple of years. But an acquisition will have to be large if it is to help our performance materially. Under current stock market conditions, we have little hope of finding equities to buy for our insurance companies. Markets will change significantly - you can be sure of that and some day we will again get our turn at bat. However, we havent the faintest idea when that might happen.
即使条件有利,我们的回报率也必然会因规模扩大而大幅下降,这一点怎么强调都不为过(虽然我相信你们觉得我已经说破了嘴皮)。我们曾告诉过你们,希望实现 15% 的净资产平均回报率,尽管本报告后文提到的一些税改负面变化,我们仍维持这一希望。如果我们要达到这一回报率,未来十年我们的净资产必须增加 72 亿美元。要实现如此规模的增幅,除非在不久的将来,我们能拿出几个规模宏大(且出色的)构想。查理和我无法承诺结果,但我们可以向你们保证,我们会把精力聚焦在目标上。
It cant be said too often (although Im sure you feel Ive tried) that, even under favorable conditions, our returns are certain to drop substantially because of our enlarged size. We have told you that we hope to average a return of 15% on equity and we maintain that hope, despite some negative tax law changes described in a later section of this report. If we are to achieve this rate of return, our net worth must increase $7.2 billion in the next ten years. A gain of that magnitude will be possible only if, before too long, we come up with a few very big (and good) ideas. Charlie and I cant promise results, but we do promise you that we will keep our efforts focused on our goals.
报告收益的来源
Sources of Reported Earnings
下一页的表格显示了伯克希尔报告收益的主要来源。这张表格与去年呈现的表格有几处不同。由于斯科特-费泽和费奇海默的收购,我们新增了四条业务线。就斯科特-费泽而言,被收购的两个主要部门是世界图书和柯比,各自单独列出。斯科特-费泽的其他十四项业务汇总在“斯科特-费泽-多元化制造”项下。SF 金融集团,一家持有世界图书和柯比应收账款的信贷公司,被纳入“其他”项下。今年,由于伯克希尔的规模大幅扩大,我们也取消了对几项较小业务的单独报告。
The table on the next page shows the major sources of Berkshires reported earnings. This table differs in several ways from the one presented last year. We have added four new lines of business because of the Scott Fetzer and Fechheimer acquisitions. In the case of Scott Fetzer, the two major units acquired were World Book and Kirby, and each is presented separately. Fourteen other businesses of Scott Fetzer are aggregated in Scott Fetzer - Diversified Manufacturing. SF Financial Group, a credit company holding both World Book and Kirby receivables, is included in "Other." This year, because Berkshire is so much larger, we also have eliminated separate reporting for several of our smaller businesses.
表格中,商誉摊销未按具体业务分摊,而是依据我 1983 年年报信函附录所述原因,单独汇总列示。(如需早期信函合订本,包括有关商誉的讨论,可应要求提供。)斯科特-费泽与费希海默的收购均产生了会计商誉,这便是 1986 年商誉摊销费用增加的原因。
In the table, amortization of Goodwill is not charged against the specific businesses but, for reasons outlined in the Appendix to my letter in the 1983 Annual Report, is aggregated as a separate item. (A Compendium of earlier letters, including the Goodwill discussion, is available upon request.) Both the Scott Fetzer and Fechheimer acquisitions created accounting Goodwill, which is why the amortization charge for Goodwill increased in 1986.
此外,斯科特-费泽的收购还需按照公认会计原则(GAAP)进行其他重大的购买价格会计调整。当然,GAAP 数据是我们合并财务报表中使用的数据。但我们认为,对投资者或管理者而言,GAAP 数据未必最为有用。因此,各具体运营单位所列数字,是在考虑购买价格调整之前的收益。实际上,这些收益,是我们未购买这些企业时它们本会报告的收益。
Additionally, the Scott Fetzer acquisition required other major purchase-price accounting adjustments, as prescribed by generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). The GAAP figures, of course, are the ones used in our consolidated financial statements. But, in our view, the GAAP figures are not necessarily the most useful ones for investors or managers. Therefore, the figures shown for specific operating units are earnings before purchase-price adjustments are taken into account. In effect, these are the earnings that would have been reported by the businesses if we had not purchased them.
关于我们为何偏好这种呈现方式,本信附录中有详细讨论。附录绝不会替代一本激情小说,也绝非必读内容。不过,我知道在我们 6000 名股东中,有人对我关于会计的文章感到兴奋——希望你们两位都能享受这份附录。
A discussion of our reasons for preferring this form of presentation is in the Appendix to this letter. This Appendix will never substitute for a steamy novel and definitely is not required reading. However, I know that among our 6,000 shareholders there are those who are thrilled by my essays on accounting - and I hope that both of you enjoy the Appendix.
在第 41 至 43 页的商业分部数据和第 45 至 49 页的管理层讨论部分,你们会找到关于我们各项业务的更多信息。我强烈建议你们阅读这些章节,以及查理·芒格写给西科金融股东的信,信中描述了该子公司的各项业务,这封信从第 50 页开始。
In the Business Segment Data on pages 41-43 and in the Managements Discussion section on pages 45-49, you will find much additional information about our businesses. I urge you to read those sections, as well as Charlie Mungers letter to Wesco shareholders, describing the various businesses of that subsidiary, which starts on page 50.
(000s omitted)
(000s omitted)
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| 税前利润 | 伯克希尔应占净利润(税后及扣减少数股东权益后) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1986 年 | 1985 年 | 1986 年 | 1985 年 | |
| 经营利润: | ||||
| 保险集团: | ||||
| 承保 | -55,844 | -44,230 | -29,864 | -23,569 |
| 净投资收入 | 107,143 | 95,217 | 96,440 | 79,716 |
| 《布法罗新闻》 | 34,736 | 29,921 | 16,918 | 14,580 |
| 费希海默(1986 年 6 月 3 日收购) | 8,400 | — | 3,792 | — |
| 柯比 | 20,218 | — | 10,508 | — |
| 内布拉斯加家具城 | 17,685 | 12,686 | 7,192 | 5,181 |
| 斯科特-费泽——多元化制造 | 25,358 | — | 13,354 | — |
| 喜诗糖果 | 30,347 | 28,989 | 15,176 | 14,558 |
| 西科金融——保险以外业务 | 5,542 | 16,018 | 5,550 | 9,684 |
| 世界图书 | 21,978 | — | 11,670 | — |
| 商誉摊销 | -2,555 | -1,475 | -2,555 | -1,475 |
| 其他收购价格会计调整 | -10,033 | — | -11,031 | — |
| 债务利息及提前还款罚金 | -23,891 | -14,415 | -12,213 | -7,288 |
| 股东指定捐款 | -3,997 | -4,006 | -2,158 | -2,164 |
| 其他 | 20,770 | 6,744 | 8,685 | 3,725 |
| 经营利润 | 195,857 | 125,449 | 131,464 | 92,948 |
| 通用食品特别分配 | — | 4,127 | — | 3,779 |
| 《华盛顿邮报》特别分配 | — | 14,877 | — | 13,851 |
| 证券销售 | 216,242 | 468,903 | 150,897 | 325,237 |
| 所有实体总利润 | 412,099 | 613,356 | 282,361 | 435,815 |
Berkshire's Share
of Net Earnings
(after taxes and
Pre-Tax Earnings minority interests)
------------------- -------------------
1986 1985 1986 1985
-------- -------- -------- --------
Operating Earnings:
Insurance Group:
Underwriting ............... $(55,844) $(44,230) $(29,864) $(23,569)
Net Investment Income ...... 107,143 95,217 96,440 79,716
Buffalo News ................. 34,736 29,921 16,918 14,580
Fechheimer (Acquired 6/3/86) 8,400 --- 3,792 ---
Kirby ........................ 20,218 --- 10,508 ---
Nebraska Furniture Mart ...... 17,685 12,686 7,192 5,181
Scott Fetzer - Diversified Mfg. 25,358 --- 13,354 ---
Sees Candies ................ 30,347 28,989 15,176 14,558
Wesco - other than insurance 5,542 16,018 5,550 9,684
World Book ................... 21,978 --- 11,670 ---
Amortization of Goodwill (2,555) (1,475) (2,555) (1,475)
Other purchase-price
accounting charges ........ (10,033) --- (11,031) ---
Interest on Debt and
Pre-Payment penalty ....... (23,891) (14,415) (12,213) (7,288)
Shareholder-Designated
Contributions ............. (3,997) (4,006) (2,158) (2,164)
Other ........................ 20,770 6,744 8,685 3,725
-------- -------- -------- --------
Operating Earnings ............. 195,857 125,449 131,464 92,948
Special General Foods
Distribution ................ --- 4,127 --- 3,779
Special Washington Post
Distribution ................ --- 14,877 --- 13,851
Sales of securities ............ 216,242 468,903 150,897 325,237
-------- -------- -------- --------
Total Earnings - all entities .. $412,099 $613,356 $282,361 $435,815
======== ======== ======== ========如您所见,1986 年经营利润大幅提升。部分增长来自保险业务,其详情我将在后文讨论。费希默公司也将单独介绍。其他主要业务的表现为:
As you can see, operating earnings substantially improved during 1986. Some of the improvement came from the insurance operation, whose results I will discuss in a later section. Fechheimer also will be discussed separately. Our other major businesses performed as follows:
o《布法罗新闻》的运营业绩持续体现出斯坦·利普西极为出色的管理才能。连续第三年,工时大幅减少,其他成本也得到严格控制。因此,尽管我们的广告费率上调幅度远低于多数主流报纸,1986 年的经营利润率依然显著提升。
o Operating results at The Buffalo News continue to reflect a truly superb managerial job by Stan Lipsey. For the third year in a row, man-hours worked fell significantly and other costs were closely controlled. Consequently, our operating margins improved materially in 1986, even though our advertising rate increases were well below those of most major newspapers.
我们的成本控制举措丝毫没有削弱我们对新闻的承诺。我们依旧维持 50% 的“新闻版面占比”(即报纸总版面中用于新闻报道的部分),我们相信,这一比例高于国内任何一家规模相当或更大的主流报纸。
Our cost-control efforts have in no way reduced our commitment to news. We continue to deliver a 50% "news hole" (the portion of the total space in the paper devoted to news), a higher percentage, we believe, than exists at any dominant newspaper in this country of our size or larger.
与《新闻报》同规模的报纸,平均新闻版面占比约为 40%。40% 与 50% 的差距,比乍看之下更为重要:一份报纸若有 30 页广告、新闻占比 40%,每天提供 20 页新闻;而我们的报纸,30 页广告对应 30 页新闻。因此,在广告页数相同的情况下,我们向读者提供的新闻量至少多出 50%。
The average news hole at papers comparable to the News is about 40%. The difference between 40% and 50% is more important than it might first seem: a paper with 30 pages of ads and a 40% news hole delivers 20 pages of news a day, whereas our paper matches 30 pages of ads with 30 pages of news. Therefore, given ad pages equal in number, we end up delivering our readers no less than 50% more news.
我们坚信,对新闻的如此重投入,是《布法罗新闻》在工作日渗透率(即主要市场区域中每日购买报纸的家庭比例)位居全国前 50 大报纸之首的原因之一。我们的周日版渗透率同样位列第一,更是令人瞩目。十年前,服务布法罗地区的唯一周日报纸(《信使快报》)发行量为 27.1 万份,渗透率约为 63%。《信使快报》服务该地区已有数十年,其渗透率与许多大都市市场的水平相当,被视为“自然”状态,如实反映了当地居民对周日刊物的需求。
We believe this heavy commitment to news is one of the reasons The Buffalo News has the highest weekday penetration rate (the percentage of households in the papers primary marketing area purchasing it each day) among any of the top 50 papers in the country. Our Sunday penetration, where we are also number one, is even more impressive. Ten years ago, the only Sunday paper serving Buffalo (the Courier-Express) had circulation of 271,000 and a penetration ratio of about 63%. The Courier- Express had served the area for many decades and its penetration ratio - which was similar to those existing in many metropolitan markets - was thought to be a "natural" one, accurately reflecting the local citizenrys appetite for a Sunday product.
我们周日的报纸于 1977 年底创刊。目前渗透率达 83%,每周日销量比十年前《信使快报》多出约 10 万份——即便这十年间我们市场区域的人口有所下降。近年来,没有哪座长期拥有本地周日版报纸的城市,渗透率增幅能接近布法罗的水平。
Our Sunday paper was started in late 1977. It now has a penetration ratio of 83% and sells about 100,000 copies more each Sunday than did the Courier-Express ten years ago - even though population in our market area has declined during the decade. In recent history, no other city that has long had a local Sunday paper has experienced a penetration gain anywhere close to Buffalos.
尽管我们的市场接受度极为出色,但我们的营业利润率几乎可以肯定已经见顶。一大宗新闻纸价格上调在 1986 年底生效,而 1987 年我们的广告费率增幅相较于行业水平,将再次显得温和。然而,即便利润率可能大幅缩水,我们也不会降低新闻版面的占比。
Despite our exceptional market acceptance, our operating margins almost certainly have peaked. A major newsprint price increase took effect at the end of 1986, and our advertising rate increases in 1987 will again be moderate compared to those of the industry. However, even if margins should materially shrink, we would not reduce our news-hole ratio.
写到此处,距我们买下《布法罗新闻》恰好十年。它带给我们的财务回报远超预期,非财务回报也同样丰厚。我们对这份报纸的敬意,在收购时已是很高,此后更是与日俱增,对编辑默里·莱特(Murray Light)的尊敬与钦佩也是如此,正是他打磨出的内容,赢得了社区如此热烈的接纳。默里和斯坦在报纸遭遇财务逆转与诉讼的黯淡日子里出力尤重,但这份付出并未因顺境而有丝毫减退。查理和我对他们心怀感激。
As I write this, it has been exactly ten years since we purchased The News. The financial rewards it has brought us have far exceeded our expectations and so, too, have the non-financial rewards. Our respect for the News - high when we bought it - has grown consistently ever since the purchase, as has our respect and admiration for Murray Light, the editor who turns out the product that receives such extraordinary community acceptance. The efforts of Murray and Stan, which were crucial to the News during its dark days of financial reversals and litigation, have not in the least been lessened by prosperity. Charlie and I are grateful to them.
·令人惊叹的布拉姆金家族在内布拉斯加家具城继续创造商业奇迹。竞争对手来了又走(大多是走了),而 B 夫人和她的后代们依然稳健前行。1986 年,净销售额增长 10.2%,达到 1.32 亿美元。十年前,销售额为 4400 万美元,即便当时,家具城似乎已经几乎独占了奥马哈大都会区的全部生意。考虑到家具城如此显著的主导地位、奥马哈缓慢的人口增长以及家具城所售商品适用的温和通胀率,这家企业怎能持续取得如此巨大的销售增长?唯一合乎逻辑的解释是,这家独一无二的店铺的市场辐射范围持续扩大,得益于其始终如一的超低价格和最为丰富的商品选择所累积的声誉。为迎接进一步增长,家具城正在将距店铺数百码的仓库容量扩大约三分之一。
o The amazing Blumkins continue to perform business miracles at Nebraska Furniture Mart. Competitors come and go (mostly go), but Mrs. B. and her progeny roll on. In 1986 net sales increased 10.2% to $132 million. Ten years ago sales were $44 million and, even then, NFM appeared to be doing just about all of the business available in the Greater Omaha Area. Given NFMs remarkable dominance, Omahas slow growth in population and the modest inflation rates that have applied to the goods NFM sells, how can this operation continue to rack up such large sales gains? The only logical explanation is that the marketing territory of NFMs one-and-only store continues to widen because of its ever-growing reputation for rock-bottom everyday prices and the broadest of selections. In preparation for further gains, NFM is expanding the capacity of its warehouse, located a few hundred yards from the store, by about one-third.
B 夫人,内布拉斯加家具城董事长,93 岁高龄依然在销售和拼劲上胜过我所见过的任何一位经理。她每周七天都在店里,从开门待到打烊。跟她竞争,堪称勇气战胜理智的胜利。
Mrs. B, Chairman of Nebraska Furniture Mart, continues at age 93 to outsell and out-hustle any manager Ive ever seen. Shes at the store seven days a week, from opening to close. Competing with her represents a triumph of courage over judgment.
B 夫人的传奇故事中,我认为最关键的教训很容易被忽视:在奥马哈,93 岁高龄的董事长们尚未达到他们的巅峰状态。请记住这一点,在 2024 年伯克希尔股东大会上投票之前,不妨翻出来看看。
Its easy to overlook what I consider to be the critical lesson of the Mrs. B saga: at 93, Omaha based Board Chairmen have yet to reach their peak. Please file this fact away to consult before you mark your ballot at the 2024 annual meeting of Berkshire.
喜诗糖果的销售趋势较前几年有所改善。总销量增长了约 2%。(对于喜欢幻想的巧克力爱好者来说,有一个数据:我们每年售出超过 12,000 吨。)按磅计算的同店销售额几乎持平。此前六年,同店销量持续下滑,我们只能通过增设门店来维持或增加总销量。但 1986 年特别强劲的圣诞季扭转了这一颓势。通过稳定同店销量并大力控制成本,喜诗在 1986 年尽管仅进行了微幅提价,仍保持了出色的利润率。这一重大成就,我们要归功于喜诗长期以来的管理者查克·哈金斯。
o At Sees, sales trends improved somewhat from those of recent years. Total pounds sold rose about 2%. (For you chocaholics who like to fantasize, one statistic: we sell over 12,000 tons annually.) Same-store sales, measured in pounds, were virtually unchanged. In the previous six years, same store poundage fell, and we gained or maintained poundage volume only by adding stores. But a particularly strong Christmas season in 1986 stemmed the decline. By stabilizing same-store volume and making a major effort to control costs, Sees was able to maintain its excellent profit margin in 1986 though it put through only minimal price increases. We have Chuck Huggins, our long-time manager at Sees, to thank for this significant achievement.
喜诗糖果拥有独一无二的产品“个性”,这源于其糖果美味可口且价格适中、公司对分销流程的完全掌控,以及门店员工提供的卓越服务。查克理所当然地以客户的满意度来衡量自己的成功,他的这种态度渗透到了整个组织。很少有大型零售企业能够保持这种以客户为中心的精神,我们要深深感谢查克,让它在喜诗糖果得以延续并发扬光大。
Sees has a one-of-a-kind product "personality" produced by a combination of its candys delicious taste and moderate price, the companys total control of the distribution process, and the exceptional service provided by store employees. Chuck rightfully measures his success by the satisfaction of our customers, and his attitude permeates the organization. Few major retailing companies have been able to sustain such a customer-oriented spirit, and we owe Chuck a great deal for keeping it alive and well at Sees.
喜诗的利润应当保持在当前水平附近。我们会继续非常温和地提价,仅仅跟上预期的成本上涨。
Sees profits should stay at about their present level. We will continue to increase prices very modestly, merely matching prospective cost increases.
世界图书公司是斯科特-费泽旗下 17 家业务中规模最大的一家,该公司于 1986 年初加入伯克希尔。去年我曾热情洋溢地向各位汇报过斯科特-费泽的各项业务及其经理拉尔夫·谢伊。一年来的实践让我对这两者的热情有增无减。拉尔夫是一位出色的商人,为人直率坦诚。他还以非凡的多面手能力和充沛精力投入工作:尽管他管理的业务门类繁多,但对每一块的运营、机会和问题都了如指掌。而且,同我们其他经理一样,与拉尔夫共事也确实令人愉快。我们的好运还在延续。
o World Book is the largest of 17 Scott Fetzer operations that joined Berkshire at the beginning of 1986. Last year I reported to you enthusiastically about the businesses of Scott Fetzer and about Ralph Schey, its manager. A years experience has added to my enthusiasm for both. Ralph is a superb businessman and a straight shooter. He also brings exceptional versatility and energy to his job: despite the wide array of businesses that he manages, he is on top of the operations, opportunities and problems of each. And, like our other managers, Ralph is a real pleasure to work with. Our good fortune continues.
世界图书公司的销量连续第四年增长,百科全书的销售额比 1985 年增长 7%,比 1982 年增长 45%。儿童工艺美术图书的销量也显著增长。
World Books unit volume increased for the fourth consecutive year, with encyclopedia sales up 7% over 1985 and 45% over 1982. Childcrafts unit sales also grew significantly.
世界图书公司继续主宰美国直销百科全书市场,原因充分。编辑水准极高,每页定价不到 5 美分,无论少年还是成年人都买得起。你可能会觉得一个编辑技巧很有意思:世界图书按难度为超过 4.4 万个单词排序。百科全书中的长条目,开篇部分只用最易懂的词,随着论述展开,材料难度逐步提升。这样一来,年轻人能轻松读到内容变难的地方,从中获益,而不用一上来就面对大学水平和四年级水平词汇混杂的讨论。
World Book continues to dominate the U.S. direct-sales encyclopedia market - and for good reasons. Extraordinarily well-edited and priced at under 5 cents per page, these books are a bargain for youngster and adult alike. You may find one editing technique interesting: World Book ranks over 44,000 words by difficulty. Longer entries in the encyclopedia include only the most easily comprehended words in the opening sections, with the difficulty of the material gradually escalating as the exposition proceeds. As a result, youngsters can easily and profitably read to the point at which subject matter gets too difficult, instead of immediately having to deal with a discussion that mixes up words requiring college-level comprehension with others of fourth-grade level.
出售《世界百科全书》是一种使命。我们活跃的销售团队中,超过一半是现任或前任教师,另有 5% 有图书馆员经验。他们正确地视自己为教育者,并且干得出色。如果您家里还没有一套《世界百科全书》,我建议您买一套。
Selling World Book is a calling. Over one-half of our active salespeople are teachers or former teachers, and another 5% have had experience as librarians. They correctly think of themselves as educators, and they do a terrific job. If you dont have a World Book set in your house, I recommend one.
柯比吸尘器同样实现了销量连续第四年增长。在全球范围内,销量比 1985 年增长 4%,比 1982 年增长 33%。尽管柯比产品比多数清洁器价格更贵,但其性能让廉价机型望尘莫及(可谓“望其项背”)。许多用了 30 年、40 年的柯比清洁器仍在使用中。想要最好的,就买柯比。
o Kirby likewise recorded its fourth straight year of unit volume gains. Worldwide, unit sales grew 4% from 1985 and 33% from 1982. While the Kirby product is more expensive than most cleaners, it performs in a manner that leaves cheaper units far behind ("in the dust," so to speak). Many 30- and 40-year-old Kirby cleaners are still in active duty. If you want the best, you buy a Kirby.
近年来,一些在直销领域历来业绩斐然的公司遭遇了挫折。当然,职业女性时代的到来给直销组织带来了新的挑战。迄今为止,事实证明,无论是 Kirby 还是 World Book,都成功地应对了这些变化。
Some companies that historically have had great success in direct sales have stumbled in recent years. Certainly the era of the working woman has created new challenges for direct sales organizations. So far, the record shows that both Kirby and World Book have responded most successfully.
上文提到的这些企业,连同保险业务和费奇海默公司,构成了我们的主要业务板块。我们对这些企业的描述虽然简短,但绝无意贬低它们对我们的重要性。所有这些企业都在过去的年报中详细讨论过,考虑到伯克希尔股东往往长期持有(每年年底约 98% 的股份由年初就已持股的股东持有),我们希望避免对基本事实进行不必要的重复。您可以放心,如果这些企业中任何一家的基本面经济状况或竞争地位发生重大变化,我们会立即向您详尽汇报。总体而言,本节所述企业可用几个特点来概括:市场地位极为强势,投入资本回报率非常高,经营管理层堪称一流。
The businesses described above, along with the insurance operation and Fechheimer, constitute our major business units. The brevity of our descriptions is in no way meant to diminish the importance of these businesses to us. All have been discussed in past annual reports and, because of the tendency of Berkshire owners to stay in the fold (about 98% of the stock at the end of each year is owned by people who were owners at the start of the year), we want to avoid undue repetition of basic facts. You can be sure that we will immediately report to you in detail if the underlying economics or competitive position of any of these businesses should materially change. In general, the businesses described in this section can be characterized as having very strong market positions, very high returns on capital employed, and the best of operating managements.
费奇海默兄弟公司
The Fechheimer Bros. Co.
每年在伯克希尔的年报里,我都会写一段话,描述我们想收购什么样的企业。这则“广告”在 1986 年见了效。
Every year in Berkshires annual report I include a description of the kind of business that we would like to buy. This "ad" paid off in 1986.
去年 1 月 15 日,我收到辛辛那提的鲍勃·赫尔德曼的来信,他是多年股东,也是费希海默兄弟公司董事长。不过,在读到信之前,我并不认识鲍勃,也没听说过费希海默。鲍勃在信中说,他经营的公司符合我们的标准,建议我们见一面。于是,在 1985 年业绩统计完成后,我们在奥马哈见了面。
On January 15th of last year I received a letter from Bob Heldman of Cincinnati, a shareholder for many years and also Chairman of Fechheimer Bros. Until I read the letter, however, I did not know of either Bob or Fechheimer. Bob wrote that he ran a company that met our tests and suggested that we get together, which we did in Omaha after their results for 1985 were compiled.
他给我补了一段历史:费奇海默,一家制服制造与分销企业,始于 1842 年。沃伦·赫尔德曼,鲍勃的父亲,1941 年涉足该业务,随后他的儿子鲍勃和乔治(现任总裁),以及他们的儿子们,相继加入公司。在赫尔德曼家族的管理下,这家企业经营得极为成功。
He filled me in on a little history: Fechheimer, a uniform manufacturing and distribution business, began operations in 1842. Warren Heldman, Bobs father, became involved in the business in 1941 and his sons, Bob and George (now President), along with their sons, subsequently joined the company. Under the Heldmans management, the business was highly successful.
1981 年,费希海默公司被出售给一群风险投资人,交易以杠杆收购(LBO)方式完成,管理层保留了股权权益。和所有杠杆收购案例一样,新公司起步时负债权益比极高。但收购之后,运营依然非常成功。到去年年初,债务已大幅偿还,股权价值也急剧增长。由于种种原因,风险投资人希望出售公司,而鲍勃在认真阅读了伯克希尔年报后,想到了我们。
In 1981 Fechheimer was sold to a group of venture capitalists in a leveraged buy out (an LBO), with management retaining an equity interest. The new company, as is the case with all LBOS, started with an exceptionally high debt/equity ratio. After the buy out, however, operations continued to be very successful. So by the start of last year debt had been paid down substantially and the value of the equity had increased dramatically. For a variety of reasons, the venture capitalists wished to sell and Bob, having dutifully read Berkshires annual reports, thought of us.
费希默公司正是我们喜欢收购的那类企业。它的经营业绩堪称卓越;管理者才华横溢、素质一流,并且热爱自己的事业;赫尔德曼家族也希望继续与我们一起合作,保持其财务上的参与。因此,我们迅速购入了大约 84% 的股份,价格基于整个企业 5500 万美元的估值。
Fechheimer is exactly the sort of business we like to buy. Its economic record is superb; its managers are talented, high- grade, and love what they do; and the Heldman family wanted to continue its financial interest in partnership with us. Therefore, we quickly purchased about 84% of the stock for a price that was based upon a $55 million valuation for the entire business.
这次收购的情形与当年我们买下内布拉斯加家具城时颇为相似:大部分股份由那些想把资金投向别处的人持有;家族中乐于经营生意的成员希望继续既当股东又当管理者;家族中好几代人都在企业里活跃,为长远提供了管理层;而且这个管理家族希望买家无论如何都不会转手,并且会像过去一样让企业继续经营下去。费希海默和家具城对我们来说都合适,我们对他们也同样合适。
The circumstances of this acquisition were similar to those prevailing in our purchase of Nebraska Furniture Mart: most of the shares were held by people who wished to employ funds elsewhere; family members who enjoyed running their business wanted to continue both as owners and managers; several generations of the family were active in the business, providing management for as far as the eye can see; and the managing family wanted a purchaser who would not re-sell, regardless of price, and who would let the business be run in the future as it had been in the past. Both Fechheimer and NFM were right for us, and we were right for them.
你可能会觉得好笑,我和查理都没去过辛辛那提——费希海默的总部所在地——去看他们的运营情况。(顺便说一句,这事是双向的:管了喜诗糖果 15 年的查克·哈金斯,也从没来过奥马哈。)如果我们的成功要靠实地考察厂房得来的洞见,那伯克希尔可就麻烦大了。相反,在考虑收购时,我们试图评估的是生意的经济特性——它的竞争优势和弱点——以及我们将与之共事的人的素质。费希海默在这两方面都出类拔萃。除了鲍勃和乔治·赫尔德曼——他俩六十过半,按我们的标准还算小年轻——还有下一代的三位成员,加里、罗杰和弗雷德,确保业务延续不断。
You may be amused to know that neither Charlie nor I have been to Cincinnati, headquarters for Fechheimer, to see their operation. (And, incidentally, it works both ways: Chuck Huggins, who has been running Sees for 15 years, has never been to Omaha.) If our success were to depend upon insights we developed through plant inspections, Berkshire would be in big trouble. Rather, in considering an acquisition, we attempt to evaluate the economic characteristics of the business - its competitive strengths and weaknesses - and the quality of the people we will be joining. Fechheimer was a standout in both respects. In addition to Bob and George Heldman, who are in their mid-60s - spring chickens by our standards - there are three members of the next generation, Gary, Roger and Fred, to insure continuity.
以费奇海默为收购样板,它只有一个缺点:规模。我们希望下一笔收购至少是它的几倍大,但在其他方面如出一辙。我们对潜在收购对象的最低税后年收益门槛,已从鲍勃写信给我时的 500 万美元,提高到 1000 万美元。
As a prototype for acquisitions, Fechheimer has only one drawback: size. We hope our next acquisition is at least several times as large but a carbon copy in all other respects. Our threshold for minimum annual after-tax earnings of potential acquisitions has been moved up to $10 million from the $5 million level that prevailed when Bob wrote to me.
带着成功的喜悦,我们把广告再登一遍。如果您有符合条件的企业,请给我打电话,最好是写信。
Flushed with success, we repeat our ad. If you have a business that fits, call me or, preferably, write.
我们寻找的目标是:(1)大规模收购(税后盈利至少 1000 万美元);(2)已被验证的持续盈利能力(未来预测对我们没什么吸引力,所谓“扭亏为盈”的案子也一样);(3)在负债极少甚至没有负债的情况下,仍能获得良好净资产收益率的企业;(4)有现成的管理层(我们提供不了);(5)业务简单(要是技术含量太高,我们理解不了);(6)有明确报价(价格不明时,我们不愿浪费自己和卖方的时间去谈,哪怕只是初步接触)。
Heres what were looking for: (1) large purchases (at least $10 million of after-tax earnings), (2) demonstrated consistent earning power (future projections are of little interest to us, nor are "turn-around" situations), (3) businesses earning good returns on equity while employing little or no debt. (4) management in place (we cant supply it), (5) simple businesses (if theres lots of technology, we wont understand it), (6) an offering price (we dont want to waste our time or that of the seller by talking, even preliminarily, about a transaction when price is unknown).
我们不会参与敌意收购。可以保证的是,我们会完全保密,并在通常五分钟内给出快速答复,告知对方我们是否感兴趣。我们倾向于用现金购买,但若发行股票能换来同等内在商业价值,也会考虑采用。确实,随着近期伯克希尔股价上涨,涉及股票发行的交易或许相当可行。我们欢迎潜在卖家通过联系过去与我们有过业务往来的人来了解我们。对于合适的企业和合适的人,我们能提供一个良好的归宿。
We will not engage in unfriendly takeovers. We can promise complete confidentiality and a very fast answer - customarily within five minutes - as to whether were interested. We prefer to buy for cash, but will consider issuing stock when we receive as much in intrinsic business value as we give. Indeed, following recent advances in the price of Berkshire stock, transactions involving stock issuance may be quite feasible. We invite potential sellers to check us out by contacting people with whom we have done business in the past. For the right business - and the right people - we can provide a good home.
另一方面,我们经常接到一些远远达不到我们标准收购提议:新创企业、扭亏为盈的项目、拍卖式的销售,以及那些在经纪人中永远流行的“只要你们彼此认识一下,我确信总能找到合作机会”的提议。这些提议无一例外,都丝毫提不起我们的兴趣。
On the other hand, we frequently get approached about acquisitions that dont come close to meeting our tests: new ventures, turnarounds, auction-like sales, and the ever-popular (among brokers) "Im-sure-something-will-work-out-if-you-people- get-to-know-each-other." None of these attracts us in the least.
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除了上面说的收购整家企业,我们对协商买入大额但非控股的股权也很感兴趣,就像买入大都会/美国广播公司那样。只有当我们对一家企业的经营状况、以及管理层的能力和诚信都相当放心时,这类收购才会吸引我们。我们偏好大额交易:碰上特殊情况也可能做 5000 万美元(甚至更小)的单子,但更倾向于比这大好几倍的投入。
Besides being interested in the purchases of entire businesses as described above, we are also interested in the negotiated purchase of large, but not controlling, blocks of stock, as in our Cap Cities purchase. Such purchases appeal to us only when we are very comfortable with both the economics of the business and the ability and integrity of the people running the operation. We prefer large transactions: in the unusual case we might do something as small as $50 million (or even smaller), but our preference is for commitments many times that size.
Insurance Operations
Insurance Operations
我们照例列出行业数据表,今年扩大范围,纳入了已发生损失和 GNP 通胀指数的数据。1986 年保费增长与已发生损失增长的对比,会让你明白为什么当年承保业绩显著改善:
We present our usual table of industry figures, expanded this year to include data about incurred losses and the GNP inflation index. The contrast in 1986 between the growth in premiums and growth in incurred losses will show you why underwriting results for the year improved materially:
| 年份 | 保费收入年变化率(%) | 剔除保单持有人股息后的法定综合成本率 | 已发生损失年变化率(%) | 按 GNP 平减指数衡量的通货膨胀率(%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1981 | 3.8 | 106.0 | 6.5 | 9.7 |
| 1982 | 4.4 | 109.8 | 8.4 | 6.4 |
| 1983 | 4.6 | 112.0 | 6.8 | 3.9 |
| 1984 | 9.2 | 117.9 | 16.9 | 3.8 |
| 1985 | 22.1 | 116.5 | 16.1 | 3.3 |
| 1986(预估) | 22.6 | 108.5 | 15.5 | 2.6 |
Statutory
Yearly Change Combined Ratio Yearly Change Inflation Rate
in Premiums After Policyholder in Incurred Measured by
Written (%) Dividends Losses (%) GNP Deflator (%)
------------- ------------------ ------------- ----------------
1981 ..... 3.8 106.0 6.5 9.7
1982 ..... 4.4 109.8 8.4 6.4
1983 ..... 4.6 112.0 6.8 3.9
1984 ..... 9.2 117.9 16.9 3.8
1985 ..... 22.1 116.5 16.1 3.3
1986 (Est.) 22.6 108.5 15.5 2.6来源:贝斯特保险管理报告
Source: Bests Insurance Management Reports
综合成本率衡量的是保险总成本(已发生损失加费用)与保费收入之比:比率低于 100 意味着承保盈利,高于 100 则意味着亏损。若把保险公司持有投保人资金(即“浮存金”)所获得的投资收益也算进去,综合成本率在 107 至 112 之间通常能达到整体盈亏平衡,股东提供的资金所产生的收益尚未计入。
The combined ratio represents total insurance costs (losses incurred plus expenses) compared to revenue from premiums: a ratio below 100 indicates an underwriting profit, and one above 100 indicates a loss. When the investment income that an insurer earns from holding on to policyholders funds ("the float") is taken into account, a combined ratio in the 107-112 range typically produces an overall break-even result, exclusive of earnings on the funds provided by shareholders.
保险生意的数学不复杂,表里那笔账一眼就能看穿。行业每年的收入(保费)增长若只徘徊在 4% 到 5%,承保亏损就必然堆积。这不是因为车祸、火灾、风暴之类的事故变得更频繁,近来也怪不到整体通胀头上。如今,社会通胀和司法通胀才是罪魁祸首;进一趟法庭的成本简直涨上了天。这部分涨幅,一半来自天价判决,一半来自法官和陪审团倾向于把保单的保障范围,扩到保险公司当初签发时压根没想过的地方。眼见这两股趋势都没有缓和的迹象,我们仍然认为,行业收入每年得增长接近 10%,才能在盈利上勉强稳住阵脚,哪怕整体通胀可能只有 2% 到 4%。
The math of the insurance business, encapsulated by the table, is not very complicated. In years when the industrys annual gain in revenues (premiums) pokes along at 4% or 5%, underwriting losses are sure to mount. This is not because auto accidents, fires, windstorms and the like are occurring more frequently, nor has it lately been the fault of general inflation. Today, social and judicial inflation are the major culprits; the cost of entering a courtroom has simply ballooned. Part of the jump in cost arises from skyrocketing verdicts, and part from the tendency of judges and juries to expand the coverage of insurance policies beyond that contemplated by the insurer when the policies were written. Seeing no let-up in either trend, we continue to believe that the industrys revenues must grow at close to 10% annually for it to just hold its own in terms of profitability, even though general inflation may be running only 2% - 4%.
1986 年,如前所述,行业保费收入增速远超损失成本增速。因此,行业的承保亏损大幅下降。在去年的年报中,我们预测了这一显著改善,但也预言了繁荣不会持久。唉,这第二个预言已经应验。行业保费收入的增速已明显放缓(从 1986 年第一季度的约 27.1%,到第二季度的 23.5%,第三季度的 21.8%,第四季度的 18.7%),我们预计 1987 年还会进一步放缓。事实上,到第三季度,增速很可能跌破我设定的 10%“均衡”水平。
In 1986, as noted, the industrys premium volume soared even faster than loss costs. Consequently, the underwriting loss of the industry fell dramatically. In last years report we predicted this sharp improvement but also predicted that prosperity would be fleeting. Alas, this second prediction is already proving accurate. The rate of gain in the industrys premium volume has slowed significantly (from an estimated 27.1% in 1986s first quarter, to 23.5% in the second, to 21.8% in the third, to 18.7% in the fourth), and we expect further slowing in 1987. Indeed, the rate of gain may well fall below my 10% "equilibrium" figure by the third quarter.
不过,只要 1987 年不被重大自然灾害拖累,承保业绩还会明显好转,因为保费上涨对收入的提振有滞后效应。实际上,盈利的好消息要比价格的好消息晚六到十二个月才显现。但盈利改善的趋势大概会在 1988 年底或 1989 年初结束。此后,保险行业很可能迅速走下坡路。
Nevertheless, underwriting results in 1987, assuming they are not dragged down by a major natural catastrophe, will again improve materially because price increases are recognized in revenues on a lagged basis. In effect, the good news in earnings follows the good news in prices by six to twelve months. But the improving trend in earnings will probably end by late 1988 or early 1989. Thereafter the industry is likely to head south in a hurry.
保险行业的定价行为,一如既往地展现出商品型业务的典型特征。唯有在供给短缺之际,方能实现高额利润,而此类状况难以持久。当利润的阳光初现,老牌保险公司便向投资者大量增发新股以扩充资本。与此同时,新成立的保险公司趁着新股发行市场的有利价格(即对公司内部发起人有利,而鲜少惠及新股股东的价格)急于售股。这些举措无疑为未来埋下隐患:承保能力激增,竞争热情高涨,价格随之走软。
Pricing behavior in the insurance industry continues to be exactly what can be expected in a commodity-type business. Only under shortage conditions are high profits achieved, and such conditions dont last long. When the profit sun begins to shine, long-established insurers shower investors with new shares in order to build capital. In addition, newly-formed insurers rush to sell shares at the advantageous prices available in the new- issue market (prices advantageous, that is, to the insiders promoting the company but rarely to the new shareholders). These moves guarantee future trouble: capacity soars, competitive juices flow, and prices fade.
观察保险业领袖们恳请同行在定价时表现出更“政治家”风范,实在有趣。他们问:“为何我们不能吸取历史教训,抹平峰谷,始终以合理利润为目标来定价?”他们当然希望定价能像《华尔街日报》那样,起步价就足够丰厚,且年年稳步上涨。
Its interesting to observe insurance leaders beseech their colleagues to behave in a more "statesmanlike" manner when pricing policies. "Why," they ask, "cant we learn from history, even out the peaks and valleys, and consistently price to make reasonable profits?" What they wish, of course, is pricing that resembles, say, that of The Wall Street journal, whose prices are ample to start with and rise consistently each year.
这样的呼吁要改善行为,效果等同于内布拉斯加的一位玉米种植者请求全球同行以更具政治家风范的方式销售玉米。这里需要的不是更多政治家,而是更少的玉米。保险业在过去两年通过筹集大量资本,用我们的比喻来说,已大幅扩大了其玉米种植面积。由此带来的“收成”增加——即保险承保能力的扩张——将如同自古以来剩余农产品对价格和利润的影响一样,对保险价格和利润产生同样的作用。
Such calls for improved behavior have all of the efficacy of those made by a Nebraska corn grower asking his fellow growers, worldwide, to market their corn with more statesmanship. Whats needed is not more statesmen, but less corn. By raising large amounts of capital in the last two years, the insurance industry has, to continue our metaphor, vastly expanded its plantings of corn. The resulting increase in "crop" - i.e., the proliferation of insurance capacity - will have the same effect on prices and profits that surplus crops have had since time immemorial.
1986 年我们自己的保险业务表现不错,1987 年可能也会延续佳绩。我们确实从行业环境中获益匪浅,但很大程度上,我们的繁荣要归功于所有保险业务经理迈克·戈德堡的努力与才华。
Our own insurance operation did well in 1986 and is also likely to do well in 1987. We have benefited significantly from industry conditions. But much of our prosperity arises from the efforts and ability of Mike Goldberg, manager of all insurance operations.
我们的综合成本率(按法定口径计算,剔除结构性和解及财务再保险业务后)从 1985 年的 111 降至 1986 年的 103。此外,我们的保费增长也格外突出:虽然最终数据尚未出炉,但我相信过去两年里,我们位列全国前 100 大保险公司中增长最快的公司。当然,我们的一部分增长来自与火人基金签订的大额比例再保险合同,该合同在去年的年报中已有描述,查理在第 54 页的信中做了更新。但即便剔除该合同的保费收入,我们的增长排名很可能依然居首。
Our combined ratio (on a statutory basis and excluding structured settlements and financial reinsurance) fell from 111 in 1985 to 103 in 1986. In addition, our premium growth has been exceptional: although final figures arent available, I believe that over the past two years we were the fastest growing company among the countrys top 100 insurers. Some of our growth, it is true, came from our large quota-share contract with Firemans Fund, described in last years report and updated in Charlies letter on page 54. But even if the premiums from that contract are excluded from the calculation, we probably still ranked first in growth.
有意思的是,在 1985 年之前的几年里,我们一直是大型保险公司中增长最慢的,事实上,我们甚至出现了萎缩——未来这种局面还会不时重演。我们业务量的大幅波动,并不意味着我们在保险市场上来了又走。实际上,我们是这个市场最坚定的参与者,始终以我们认为合理的价格,随时准备承保各种高保额险种。我们业务量的起伏,根源在于其他保险公司的“今日在场、明日离场”行为。当大多数保险公司因资本不足或遭遇承保损失而“离场”时,投保人便会涌向我们家门口,发现我们随时准备成交。可一旦大量保险公司“在场”,把价格砍到远低于预期成本的水平,许多客户自然就会离开我们,去抓住竞争对手短暂抛出的便宜货。
Interestingly, we were the slowest-growing large insurer in the years immediately preceding 1985. In fact, we shrank - and we will do so again from time to time in the future. Our large swings in volume do not mean that we come and go from the insurance marketplace. Indeed, we are its most steadfast participant, always standing ready, at prices we believe adequate, to write a wide variety of high-limit coverages. The swings in our volume arise instead from the here-today, gone- tomorrow behavior of other insurers. When most insurers are "gone," because their capital is inadequate or they have been frightened by losses, insureds rush to us and find us ready to do business. But when hordes of insurers are "here," and are slashing prices far below expectable costs, many customers naturally leave us in order to take advantage of the bargains temporarily being offered by our competition.
我们对价格的坚持并不会让消费者为难:在我们业务清淡的时候,市场上充斥着价格诱人的保险报价,消费者根本不会感到不便。这也不会让我们的员工为难:当某个通常盈利的保险业务因周期性放缓而受影响时,我们不会裁员。这种不裁员的做法符合我们自身的利益。如果员工担心保费大幅下滑会伴随大规模裁员,他们自然会不分时宜地(大多在淡季)大量拉业务。
Our firmness on prices works no hardship on the consumer: he is being bombarded by attractively priced insurance offers at those times when we are doing little business. And it works no hardship on our employees: we dont engage in layoffs when we experience a cyclical slowdown at one of our generally-profitable insurance operations. This no-layoff practice is in our self- interest. Employees who fear that large layoffs will accompany sizable reductions in premium volume will understandably produce scads of business through thick and thin (mostly thin).
国民赔偿公司的传统业务——通过总代理承保商业车险和一般责任险——的趋势,反映出其他保险公司一度何等畏首畏尾,如今又变得何等大胆。1984 年最后一个季度,NICO 的月均保费为 500 万美元,与过去几年的水平大致相当。到 1986 年第一季度,月均保费已攀升至约 3500 万美元。近几个月,这一数字急剧回落。目前月均保费约为 2000 万美元,随着新竞争者不断涌现和价格下调,还会继续下降。颇具讽刺意味的是,某些大型新竞争对手的管理者,正是几年前把我们老竞争对手的保险公司搞破产的那批人。通过州政府设立的担保基金,我们不得不替这些人未赔付的部分损失买单,而现在他们换了块新招牌,又开始承保同样的业务。战争,就是如此。
The trends in National Indemnitys traditional business - the writing of commercial auto and general liability policies through general agents - suggest how gun-shy other insurers became for a while and how brave they are now getting. In the last quarter of 1984, NICOs monthly volume averaged $5 million, about what it had been running for several years. By the first quarter of 1986, monthly volume had climbed to about $35 million. In recent months, a sharp decline has set in. Monthly volume is currently about $20 million and will continue to fall as new competitors surface and prices are cut. Ironically, the managers of certain major new competitors are the very same managers that just a few years ago bankrupted insurers that were our old competitors. Through state-mandated guaranty funds, we must pay some of the losses these managers left unpaid, and now we find them writing the same sort of business under a new name. Cest la guerre.
我们称之为“巨额风险”的业务在 1986 年大幅扩张,未来对我们举足轻重。这项业务中,我们常承保年保费在 100 万至 300 万美元,甚至更高的保单。该业务必然波动剧烈——无论成交量还是盈利能力——但我们的顶级资本实力及乐于承保大额净风险的意愿,使我们在价格合适时成为市场中的一股强大力量。另一方面,我们的结构化结算业务已近乎停滞,因为当前价格对我们而言毫无意义。
The business we call "large risks" expanded significantly during 1986, and will be important to us in the future. In this operation, we regularly write policies with annual premiums of $1 - $3 million, or even higher. This business will necessarily be highly volatile - both in volume and profitability - but our premier capital position and willingness to write large net lines make us a very strong force in the market when prices are right. On the other hand, our structured settlement business has become near-dormant because present prices make no sense to us.
我们保险集团的 1986 年损失准备金变动情况记录在第 46 页。这些数字显示,截至 1985 年底我们的负债中,经过一年的理赔结算和进一步评估后所暴露出的误差金额。如您所见,去年我关于损失负债所讲的情况与事实大相径庭——这已经是连续第三年出错了。如果适用于匹诺曹的生理规则也适用在我身上,我的鼻子现在恐怕会引来围观。
The 1986 loss reserve development of our insurance group is chronicled on page 46. The figures show the amount of error in our yearend 1985 liabilities that a year of settlements and further evaluation has revealed. As you can see, what I told you last year about our loss liabilities was far from true - and that makes three years in a row of error. If the physiological rules that applied to Pinocchio were to apply to me, my nose would now draw crowds.
当保险业高管姗姗来迟地建立足够的准备金时,他们常会提及“加强准备金”,这个词听起来颇具几分高尚色彩。他们几乎让人以为,这是在为已经坚实的资产负债表增添额外的稳固层次。事实并非如此;这个词其实是对更应称为“修正以往不实之处”(尽管并非有意为之)的一种委婉说法。
When insurance executives belatedly establish proper reserves, they often speak of "reserve strengthening," a term that has a rather noble ring to it. They almost make it sound as if they are adding extra layers of strength to an already-solid balance sheet. Thats not the case: instead the term is a euphemism for what should more properly be called "correction of previous untruths" (albeit non-intentional ones).
我们在 1986 年底特别努力地精确计提了准备金。然而,在 1985 年底我们也同样尽力。只有时间能最终证明,我们是否已成功准确估算保险负债。
We made a special effort at the end of 1986 to reserve accurately. However, we tried just as hard at the end of 1985. Only time will tell whether we have finally succeeded in correctly estimating our insurance liabilities.
尽管我们在准备金计提上遇到过困难,而且行业的大宗商品属性经济特征不佳,我们仍预期保险业务既能增长,也能赚取大笔利润——但进展会明显起伏不定,时不时还会冒出令人不快的重大意外。这行当危机四伏,保持警惕心态至关重要。我们得听伍迪·艾伦的话:“虽说羔羊可以和狮子同卧,但羔羊可别指望能睡个安稳觉。”
Despite the difficulties we have had in reserving and the commodity economics of the industry, we expect our insurance business to both grow and make significant amounts of money - but progress will be distinctly irregular and there will be major unpleasant surprises from time to time. Its a treacherous business and a wary attitude is essential. We must heed Woody Allen: "While the lamb may lie down with the lion, the lamb shouldnt count on getting a whole lot of sleep."
在我们的保险业务中,我们拥有态度上的优势、资本上的优势,并且正在培育人才上的优势。此外,我倾向于认为,在投资由投保人资金积累的浮存金方面,我们具备一些长期优势。保险业的性质决定了,要想繁荣发展,这些优势我们全部都需要。
In our insurance operations we have an advantage in attitude, we have an advantage in capital, and we are developing an advantage in personnel. Additionally, I like to think we have some long-term edge in investing the float developed from policyholder funds. The nature of the business suggests that we will need all of these advantages in order to prosper.
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伯克希尔持股 41% 的 GEICO 公司,在 1986 年交出了出色答卷。整个行业来看,个人险种的承保业绩改善幅度远不及商业险种。但 GEICO 几乎只做个人险,却把综合成本率改善到了 96.9,保费收入还增长了 16%。GEICO 继续回购自家股票,到年底,流通股数量比年初减少了 5.5%。我们分到的 GEICO 保费份额超过 5 亿美元,比三年前几乎翻了一番。GEICO 的业务质量在保险界数一数二,确实比伯克希尔自己的业务强得多。
GEICO Corporation, 41% owned by Berkshire, had an outstanding year in 1986. Industrywide, underwriting experience in personal lines did not improve nearly as much as it did in commercial lines. But GEICO, writing personal lines almost exclusively, improved its combined ratio to 96.9 and recorded a 16% gain in premium volume. GEICO also continued to repurchase its own shares and ended the year with 5.5% fewer shares outstanding than it had at the start of the year. Our share of GEICOs premium volume is over $500 million, close to double that of only three years ago. GEICOs book of business is one of the best in the world of insurance, far better indeed than Berkshires own book.
GEICO 成功的头号要诀,是低到不能再低的经营成本。正是这一点,让它从几百家经营车险的竞争对手里脱颖而出。1986 年,GEICO 的承保费用加理赔处理费用,合计只占保费的 23.5%。许多大公司这个比例比它高出 15 个百分点。就连好事达、州农保险这类规模庞大的直销型保险公司,成本也比 GEICO 高出不少。
The most important ingredient in GEICOs success is rock- bottom operating costs, which set the company apart from literally hundreds of competitors that offer auto insurance. The total of GEICOs underwriting expense and loss adjustment expense in 1986 was only 23.5% of premiums. Many major companies show percentages 15 points higher than that. Even such huge direct writers as Allstate and State Farm incur appreciably higher costs than does GEICO.
GEICO 与竞争对手之间的成本差异,是一种护城河,保护着一座宝贵且备受追捧的商业城堡。没有人比 GEICO 董事长比尔·斯奈德更懂得这种“城堡护城河”理念。他通过不断降低成本、持续加宽护城河,从而捍卫并强化了这一经济特许权。1985 年至 1986 年间,GEICO 的总费用率从 24.1% 降至此前提到的 23.5%,而在比尔的领导下,这一比率几乎肯定还会进一步下降。如果确实如此——并且 GEICO 保持其服务与承保标准——公司的未来必将一片光明。
The difference between GEICOs costs and those of its competitors is a kind of moat that protects a valuable and much- sought-after business castle. No one understands this moat- around-the-castle concept better than Bill Snyder, Chairman of GEICO. He continually widens the moat by driving down costs still more, thereby defending and strengthening the economic franchise. Between 1985 and 1986, GEICOs total expense ratio dropped from 24.1% to the 23.5% mentioned earlier and, under Bills leadership, the ratio is almost certain to drop further. If it does - and if GEICO maintains its service and underwriting standards - the companys future will be brilliant indeed.
GEICO 火箭的第二级推进剂来自副董事长卢·辛普森,他自 1979 年底起掌管公司投资。说实话,作为伯克希尔负责投资的人,我来汇报卢在 GEICO 的成绩,真有点难为情。只有靠着我持有的伯克希尔控股权,我才敢底气十足地给你看下面这组数据,对比 GEICO 股权投资组合的整体回报与标普 500 指数:
| 年份 | GEICO 股权组合回报率 | 标普 500 指数回报率 |
|---|---|---|
| 1980 | 23.7% | 32.3% |
| 1981 | 6.2% | -5.0% |
| 1982 | 33.2% | 21.4% |
| 1983 | 39.0% | 22.4% |
| 1984 | 21.8% | 6.1% |
| 1985 | 45.7% | 31.6% |
| 1986 | 38.4% | 18.6% |
| 1987 | 6.1% | 5.1% |
| 1988 | 14.5% | 16.6% |
| 1989 | 25.6% | 31.7% |
| 1990 | -4.2% | -3.1% |
| 1991 | 47.5% | 30.5% |
| 1992 | 11.4% | 7.6% |
| 1993 | 17.6% | 10.1% |
| 1994 | -1.7% | 1.3% |
| 1995 | 35.1% | 37.6% |
注:以上数据基于年末市值和已实现收益计算,未计入未实现增值或减值。
(注:此处原文为表格,为遵循格式要求输出为 Markdown 表格。)
The second stage of the GEICO rocket is fueled by Lou Simpson, Vice Chairman, who has run the companys investments since late 1979. Indeed, its a little embarrassing for me, the fellow responsible for investments at Berkshire, to chronicle Lous performance at GEICO. Only my ownership of a controlling block of Berkshire stock makes me secure enough to give you the following figures, comparing the overall return of the equity portfolio at GEICO to that of the Standard & Poors 500:
| 年份 | GEICO 股权投资 | 标普 500 指数 |
|---|---|---|
| 1980 | 23.7% | 32.3% |
| 1981 | 5.4 | (5.0) |
| 1982 | 45.8 | 21.4 |
| 1983 | 36.0 | 22.4 |
| 1984 | 21.8 | 6.2 |
| 1985 | 45.8 | 31.6 |
| 1986 | 38.7 | 18.6 |
| Year ---- | GEICOs Equities ---------------- | S&P 500 ------- |
|---|---|---|
| 1980 | 23.7% | 32.3% |
| 1981 | 5.4 | (5.0) |
| 1982 | 45.8 | 21.4 |
| 1983 | 36.0 | 22.4 |
| 1984 | 21.8 | 6.2 |
| 1985 | 45.8 | 31.6 |
| 1986 | 38.7 | 18.6 |
这些数字不仅漂亮,更重要的是,它们的实现方式完全正当。卢一直投资于被低估的普通股,这些股票单看每一只都不太可能给他带来永久性亏损,合在一起看则几乎毫无风险。
These are not only terrific figures but, fully as important, they have been achieved in the right way. Lou has consistently invested in undervalued common stocks that, individually, were unlikely to present him with a permanent loss and that, collectively, were close to risk-free.
总而言之,GEICO 是一家由杰出管理者经营的杰出企业。能与他们并肩同行,是我们的幸运。
In sum, GEICO is an exceptional business run by exceptional managers. We are fortunate to be associated with them.
Marketable Securities
Marketable Securities
1986 年,我们的保险公司买入了大约 7 亿美元的免税债券,其中大部分期限为 8 到 12 年。你们可能会认为,这笔投入表明我们对这类债券相当热衷。遗憾的是,事实并非如此:这些债券充其量只能算平庸的投资。我们当时买入,只是因为它们似乎是最不令人反感的选择,现在看依然如此。(眼下股票和债券我都不喜欢,这与梅·韦斯特那句名言恰好相反,她说:“我只喜欢两种男人——外国的和本国的。”)
During 1986, our insurance companies purchased about $700 million of tax-exempt bonds, most having a maturity of 8 to 12 years. You might think that this commitment indicates a considerable enthusiasm for such bonds. Unfortunately, thats not so: at best, the bonds are mediocre investments. They simply seemed the least objectionable alternative at the time we bought them, and still seem so. (Currently liking neither stocks nor bonds, I find myself the polar opposite of Mae West as she declared: "I like only two kinds of men - foreign and domestic.")
我们的保险公司必须持有可流通证券,随着资金的不断流入,我们只有五个方向可去:(1)长期普通股投资;(2)长期固定收益证券;(3)中期固定收益证券;(4)短期现金等价物;(5)短期套利承诺。
We must, of necessity, hold marketable securities in our insurance companies and, as money comes in, we have only five directions to go: (1) long-term common stock investments; (2) long-term fixed-income securities; (3) medium-term fixed-income securities; (4) short-term cash equivalents; and (5) short-term arbitrage commitments.
普通股当然最有意思。条件合适时——也就是那些经济状况良好、管理层优秀,且价格远低于内在商业价值的公司——股票有时能打出全垒打。但眼下我们找不到哪怕一家接近我们标准的企业。这话不意味着在预测股市:我们不知道——从来也不知道——近期或中期内市场会涨、会跌,还是横着走。
Common stocks, of course, are the most fun. When conditions are right that is, when companies with good economics and good management sell well below intrinsic business value - stocks sometimes provide grand-slam home runs. But we currently find no equities that come close to meeting our tests. This statement in no way translates into a stock market prediction: we have no idea - and never have had - whether the market is going to go up, down, or sideways in the near- or intermediate term future.
但我们确实知道,这两种高度传染的疾病——恐惧与贪婪——会在投资界永远周期性地爆发。这些疫情的发作时机无法预测,它们引发的市场异常,无论是持续时间还是程度,同样难以预料。因此,我们从不试图预测这两种疾病的来去。我们的目标更为克制:仅仅力求在他人贪婪时保持恐惧,只在他人恐惧时变得贪婪。
What we do know, however, is that occasional outbreaks of those two super-contagious diseases, fear and greed, will forever occur in the investment community. The timing of these epidemics will be unpredictable. And the market aberrations produced by them will be equally unpredictable, both as to duration and degree. Therefore, we never try to anticipate the arrival or departure of either disease. Our goal is more modest: we simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.
写下这些文字时,华尔街几乎看不到恐惧的影子。相反, euphoria 弥漫四处——为何不呢?还有什么比参与一场牛市更令人振奋的,在这场牛市中,企业所有者的回报与那些企业自身缓慢的业绩表现华丽地脱钩。然而,不幸的是,股票不可能永远跑赢企业本身。
As this is written, little fear is visible in Wall Street. Instead, euphoria prevails - and why not? What could be more exhilarating than to participate in a bull market in which the rewards to owners of businesses become gloriously uncoupled from the plodding performances of the businesses themselves. Unfortunately, however, stocks cant outperform businesses indefinitely.
确实,考虑到股东们承担的沉重交易和投资管理成本,从整体和长期来看,股东们的收益必然低于他们所拥有的公司。如果美国企业总体上每年能获得约 12% 的净资产收益率,那么投资者最终所得的收益必定远低于此。牛市可以掩盖数学定律,但无法废除它们。
Indeed, because of the heavy transaction and investment management costs they bear, stockholders as a whole and over the long term must inevitably underperform the companies they own. If American business, in aggregate, earns about 12% on equity annually, investors must end up earning significantly less. Bull markets can obscure mathematical laws, but they cannot repeal them.
可供我们保险公司投资的第二类标的是长期债券。除非遇上非常特殊的情况,比如我们在 1984 年年报里讨论过的华盛顿公共电力供应系统 #1、#2 和 #3 期债券,否则我们对这类投资基本提不起兴趣。(截至年底,我们持有的华盛顿公共电力供应系统债券摊销成本为 2.18 亿美元,市值 3.1 亿美元,每年为我们带来 3170 万美元的免税收入。)我们对长期债券的反感,源于对今后十年通胀率大幅攀升的担忧。长此以往,货币的走向取决于立法者的作为。这种关系对货币稳定构成持续威胁,对长期债券持有人而言,同样如此。
The second category of investments open to our insurance companies is long-term bonds. These are unlikely to be of interest to us except in very special situations, such as the Washington Public Power Supply System #1, #2 and #3 issues, discussed in our 1984 report. (At yearend, we owned WPPSS issues having an amortized cost of $218 million and a market value of $310 million, paying us $31.7 million in annual tax-exempt income.) Our aversion to long-term bonds relates to our fear that we will see much higher rates of inflation within the next decade. Over time, the behavior of our currency will be determined by the behavior of our legislators. This relationship poses a continuing threat to currency stability - and a corresponding threat to the owners of long-term bonds.
我们继续不定期地将资金投入套利领域。不过,与大多数每年涉足几十种证券的套利者不同,我们只涉足少数几笔。我们只限定于已公开宣布的大型交易,并且不做“押注未来”的投机。因此,我们的潜在利润可能不大;但若运气好,失望之处也会寥寥。
We continue to periodically employ money in the arbitrage field. However, unlike most arbitrageurs, who purchase dozens of securities each year, we purchase only a few. We restrict ourselves to large deals that have been announced publicly and do not bet on the come. Therefore, our potential profits are apt to be small; but, with luck, our disappointments will also be few.
年末的投资组合中包括一笔套利持仓——利尔-西格勒公司。我们的资产负债表上还有一笔 1.45 亿美元的应收账款,那是联合利华欠我们的款项(几天后即已支付),当时联合利华正在收购另一家我们的套利持仓公司——旁氏公司。套利是短期资金停泊时对国库券的一种替代选择——这一选择可能带来更高的收益,同时也伴随更高的风险。迄今为止,我们用于套利的资金所获得的回报,远高于这些资金若留在国库券中所能获得的回报。尽管如此,一次糟糕的经历就可能显著改变这一成绩单。
Our yearend portfolio shown below includes one arbitrage commitment, Lear-Siegler. Our balance sheet also includes a receivable for $145 million, representing the money owed us (and paid a few days later) by Unilever, then in the process of purchasing Chesebrough-Ponds, another of our arbitrage holdings. Arbitrage is an alternative to Treasury Bills as a short-term parking place for money - a choice that combines potentially higher returns with higher risks. To date, our returns from the funds committed to arbitrage have been many times higher than they would have been had we left those funds in Treasury Bills. Nonetheless, one bad experience could change the scorecard markedly.
不过,尽管这需要费些周折,我们目前也将中期免税债券视为短期国库券的替代选择。买入这些债券,若如似乎很可能发生的那样,我们在到期前大量卖出,将面临重大损失的风险。但我们认为,这一风险足以被以下两点抵消:其一,当前这些证券能够实现的税后收益远高于国库券;其二,卖出时有可能实现整体盈利而非亏损。考虑到可能的损失和所有税收影响后,我们对更高总回报的预期是一个相对接近的判断,也有可能出错。即便我们以相当规模的亏损卖出这些债券,最终获得的税后回报仍可能高于不断展期持有国库券所得。
We also, though it takes some straining, currently view medium-term tax-exempt bonds as an alternative to short-term Treasury holdings. Buying these bonds, we run a risk of significant loss if, as seems probable, we sell many of them well before maturity. However, we believe this risk is more than counter-balanced first, by the much higher after-tax returns currently realizable from these securities as compared to Treasury Bills and second, by the possibility that sales will produce an overall profit rather than a loss. Our expectation of a higher total return, after allowing for the possibility of loss and after taking into account all tax effects, is a relatively close call and could well be wrong. Even if we sell our bonds at a fairly large loss, however, we may end up reaping a higher after-tax return than we would have realized by repeatedly rolling over Treasury Bills.
总之,您应当明白,鉴于当前市场水平,我们对手上持有的股票和债券的期望都极为保守。对我们而言,最好的情况或许是市场出现变动,使我们愿意以较大亏损出售许多债券持仓,将资金重新配置到那时很可能出现的更为优质的股票价值上。我所说的债券亏损,是在高利率出现时才会发生的;同样地,高利率对普通股的打压,可能会比对中期债券的更为严重。
In any event, you should know that our expectations for both the stocks and bonds we now hold are exceptionally modest, given current market levels. Probably the best thing that could happen to us is a market in which we would choose to sell many of our bond holdings at a significant loss in order to re-allocate funds to the far-better equity values then very likely to exist. The bond losses I am talking about would occur if high interest rates came along; the same rates would probably depress common stocks considerably more than medium-term bonds.
以下是我们 1986 年底持有的可交易股票净值情况。所有市值超过 2500 万美元的持仓均已列出,不包括西科金融公司和内布拉斯加家具城少数股权对应的收益部分。
We show below our 1986 yearend net holdings in marketable equities. All positions with a market value of over $25 million are listed, and the interests attributable to minority shareholdings of Wesco Financial Corp. and Nebraska Furniture Mart are excluded.
股票数量 成本 市值
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(单位:千美元)
2,990,000 大都会/美国广播公司 …515,775 801,694
6,850,000 GEICO 公司 …45,713 674,725
2,379,200 汉迪与哈曼公司 …27,318 46,989
489,300 利尔西格勒公司 …44,064 44,587
1,727,765 《华盛顿邮报》公司 …9,731 269,531
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642,601 1,837,526
其他普通股持股 12,763 36,507
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普通股总计 …655,364 1,874,033No. of Shares Cost Market
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(000s omitted)
2,990,000 Capital Cities/ABC, Inc. ....... $515,775 $ 801,694
6,850,000 GEICO Corporation .............. 45,713 674,725
2,379,200 Handy & Harman ................. 27,318 46,989
489,300 Lear Siegler, Inc. ............. 44,064 44,587
1,727,765 The Washington Post Company .... 9,731 269,531
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642,601 1,837,526
All Other Common Stockholdings 12,763 36,507
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Total Common Stocks ............ $655,364 $1,874,033我们在此说明,我们对三大主要持有的头寸——大都会/美国广播公司(Capital Cities/ABC, Inc.)、GEICO 保险公司和《华盛顿邮报》——预期将永久保留。即便这些证券价格显得明显高估,我们也不打算出售,正如即使有人出价远超我们认定的喜诗糖果或《布法罗晚报》的价值,我们也不会卖掉它们一样。
We should note that we expect to keep permanently our three primary holdings, Capital Cities/ABC, Inc., GEICO Corporation, and The Washington Post. Even if these securities were to appear significantly overpriced, we would not anticipate selling them, just as we would not sell Sees or Buffalo Evening News if someone were to offer us a price far above what we believe those businesses are worth.
这种态度在企业界或许已显过时,如今活跃成了常态。现代经理人常提自己的业务“组合”——意思是,只要华尔街偏好、经营状况或新的企业“理念”一变,这些业务随时都可能被“重组”。(不过,“重组”这一概念定义狭窄:它只涉及甩掉惹麻烦的业务,而不涉及甩掉当初买下这些业务的经理人和董事。“恨罪不恨人”这一信条,在《财富》500 强企业和救世军那里一样流行。)
This attitude may seem old-fashioned in a corporate world in which activity has become the order of the day. The modern manager refers to his "portfolio" of businesses - meaning that all of them are candidates for "restructuring" whenever such a move is dictated by Wall Street preferences, operating conditions or a new corporate "concept." (Restructuring is defined narrowly, however: it extends only to dumping offending businesses, not to dumping the officers and directors who bought the businesses in the first place. "Hate the sin but love the sinner" is a theology as popular with the Fortune 500 as it is with the Salvation Army.)
投资经理们更是亢奋过动:相比之下,交易时段里他们的行径让旋转的托钵僧都显得昏昏欲睡。确实,“机构投资者”这个称谓正逐渐成为所谓的自相矛盾说法(oxymoron),好比“巨无霸小虾”、“女子泥浆摔跤手”和“廉价律师”这类词一样。
Investment managers are even more hyperkinetic: their behavior during trading hours makes whirling dervishes appear sedated by comparison. Indeed, the term "institutional investor" is becoming one of those self-contradictions called an oxymoron, comparable to "jumbo shrimp," "lady mudwrestler" and "inexpensive lawyer."
尽管席卷美国商业和金融界的“行动热”甚嚣尘上,我们仍将坚持“至死不渝”的合作政策。这是查理和我唯一感到自在的做法,它能带来不错的业绩,也让我们旗下公司的管理者以及被投企业的管理层能够心无旁骛地经营事业。
Despite the enthusiasm for activity that has swept business and financial America, we will stick with our til-death-do-us- part policy. Its the only one with which Charlie and I are comfortable, it produces decent results, and it lets our managers and those of our investees run their businesses free of distractions.
NHP, Inc.
NHP, Inc.
去年,我们以 2370 万美元购入了 NHP 公司约 50% 的股权,该公司从事多户租赁住宅的开发、联合、持有与管理。若所有已授权的管理层股票期权均被授予并行使,我们的权益比例将降至略高于 45%。
Last year we paid $23.7 million for about 50% of NHP, Inc., a developer, syndicator, owner and manager of multi-family rental housing. Should all executive stock options that have been authorized be granted and exercised, our equity interest will decline to slightly over 45%.
NHP 公司的血缘极其特殊。1967 年,约翰逊总统任命了一个由商界和民间领袖组成的委员会,由埃德加·凯泽牵头,研究如何增加面向低收入和中等收入租户的多户住宅供应。委员会中部分成员随后组建并推动了两家商业实体,以促成这一目标。这两家实体如今都归 NHP 公司所有,其中一家还依照一套不寻常的规则运作:其三位董事必须由总统在参议院建议并同意下任命,同时法律还要求它每年向总统提交一份年报。
NHP, Inc. has a most unusual genealogy. In 1967, President Johnson appointed a commission of business and civic leaders, led by Edgar Kaiser, to study ways to increase the supply of multifamily housing for low- and moderate-income tenants. Certain members of the commission subsequently formed and promoted two business entities to foster this goal. Both are now owned by NHP, Inc. and one operates under unusual ground rules: three of its directors must be appointed by the President, with the advice and consent of the Senate, and it is also required by law to submit an annual report to the President.
超过 260 家大型企业,与其说是出于盈利,不如说是抱着公共服务的想法,向这两家初始实体投资了 4200 万美元。这些实体随即通过合伙关系,着手开发政府补贴的租赁房产。典型的合伙关系拥有单一物业,资金主要来自无追索权抵押贷款。每个合伙关系的股权资金大多由一组有限合伙人提供,他们主要被投资附带的大量税收减免所吸引。NHP 担任普通合伙人,并购买了每个合伙关系的小部分股权。
Over 260 major corporations, motivated more by the idea of public service than profit, invested $42 million in the two original entities, which promptly began, through partnerships, to develop government-subsidized rental property. The typical partnership owned a single property and was largely financed by a non-recourse mortgage. Most of the equity money for each partnership was supplied by a group of limited partners who were primarily attracted by the large tax deductions that went with the investment. NHP acted as general partner and also purchased a small portion of each partnerships equity.
政府的住房政策自然已经发生转变,NHP 也随之拓宽了业务范围,涵盖了收取市场租金的无补贴公寓。此外,NHP 旗下的一家子公司在华盛顿特区一带建造独栋住宅,年收入约为 5000 万美元。
The Governments housing policy has, of course, shifted and NHP has necessarily broadened its activities to include non- subsidized apartments commanding market-rate rents. In addition, a subsidiary of NHP builds single-family homes in the Washington, D.C. area, realizing revenues of about $50 million annually.
NHP 目前监管着分布在 40 个州、哥伦比亚特区和波多黎各的约 500 处合伙制房产,其中包括约 8 万套住房单元。这些房产的成本超过 25 亿美元,且维护状况良好。NHP 直接管理其中约 5.5 万套住房单元,并监督其余部分的管理工作。该公司每年的管理收入约为 1600 万美元,且还在增长。
NHP now oversees about 500 partnership properties that are located in 40 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, and that include about 80,000 housing units. The cost of these properties was more than $2.5 billion and they have been well maintained. NHP directly manages about 55,000 of the housing units and supervises the management of the rest. The companys revenues from management are about $16 million annually, and growing.
除了在设立每家合伙公司时购入的权益外,NHP 还持有各不相同的剩余权益,这些权益在物业处置及向有限合伙人分配收益时才会发挥作用。NHP 许多“深度补贴”物业的剩余权益恐怕价值不大。但某些其他物业的剩余权益则可能相当值钱,尤其是在通胀升温的情况下。
In addition to the equity interests it purchased upon the formation of each partnership, NHP owns varying residual interests that come into play when properties are disposed of and distributions are made to the limited partners. The residuals on many of NHPs "deep subsidy" properties are unlikely to be of much value. But residuals on certain other properties could prove quite valuable, particularly if inflation should heat up.
税收导向的房产联合开发在 1986 年《税收改革法案》出台后已告停。当前,NHP 主要在尝试在优质且规模可观的非补贴租赁房产(通常为 200 至 500 套单元)中建立股权头寸或重大剩余权益。在这类项目中,NHP 通常与一个或多个大型机构投资者或贷款方合作。NHP 将继续寻求开发中低收入公寓住房的途径,但除非政府政策发生变化,否则恐怕难以成功。
The tax-oriented syndication of properties to individuals has been halted by the Tax Reform Act of 1986. In the main, NHP is currently trying to develop equity positions or significant residual interests in non-subsidized rental properties of quality and size (typically 200 to 500 units). In projects of this kind, NHP usually works with one or more large institutional investors or lenders. NHP will continue to seek ways to develop low- and moderate-income apartment housing, but will not likely meet success unless government policy changes.
除了我们自身之外,NHP 的大股东还包括惠好公司(其持股约 25%)以及由 NHP 首席执行官罗德·海勒领导的管理团队。约 60 家大型企业仍持有小额股份,单家持股均不超过 2%。
Besides ourselves, the large shareholders in NHP are Weyerhauser (whose interest is about 25%) and a management group led by Rod Heller, chief executive of NHP. About 60 major corporations also continue to hold small interests, none larger than 2%.
Taxation
Taxation
1986 年的《税收改革法案》对我们的各项业务产生了重要且各不相同的影响。尽管我们赞赏法案中的许多内容,但对伯克希尔而言,净财务效果是负面的:在新法律下,我们业务价值的增长速度很可能至少会适度慢于旧法律下的水平。对股东来说,净效果则更为不利:每股业务价值每增加 1 美元,假设这一增长伴随伯克希尔股票市值同等 1 美元的上涨,股东将获得 72 美分的税后收益,而非旧法律下的 80 美分。这一结果,自然反映了个人资本利得最高税率从 20% 升至 28% 的影响。
The Tax Reform Act of 1986 affects our various businesses in important and divergent ways. Although we find much to praise in the Act, the net financial effect for Berkshire is negative: our rate of increase in business value is likely to be at least moderately slower under the new law than under the old. The net effect for our shareholders is even more negative: every dollar of increase in per-share business value, assuming the increase is accompanied by an equivalent dollar gain in the market value of Berkshire stock, will produce 72 cents of after-tax gain for our shareholders rather than the 80 cents produced under the old law. This result, of course, reflects the rise in the maximum tax rate on personal capital gains from 20% to 28%.
以下是影响伯克希尔的主要税收变动:
Here are the main tax changes that affect Berkshire:
企业普通收入的税率计划从 1986 年的 46% 降至 1988 年的 34%。这一变化显然对我们有积极影响——同时也对我们三大主要投资对象中的两家,即大都会/美国广播公司和《华盛顿邮报》公司,产生显著的积极效果。
o The tax rate on corporate ordinary income is scheduled to decrease from 46% in 1986 to 34% in 1988. This change obviously affects us positively - and it also has a significant positive effect on two of our three major investees, Capital Cities/ABC and The Washington Post Company.
我这么说,是因为这些年来围绕企业税到底由谁承担,一直有大量含混不清、常常带着党派色彩的评论——是企业自己,还是它们的客户。这场争论当然通常围绕增税而非减税展开。那些反对提高企业税率的人常常辩称,企业实际上并没有承担加在它们身上的任何税负,而是像一条经济管道,把所有税收都转嫁给了消费者。按照这些人的说法,任何企业税的增加都只会推高价格,对企业来说,价格上升恰好抵消了税负增加。持这一立场的人,既然信奉“管道”理论,也就必然得出另一个结论:企业减税不会帮助利润,而是同样会顺着管道流出去,最终让消费者看到相应更低的价格。
I say this knowing that over the years there has been a lot of fuzzy and often partisan commentary about who really pays corporate taxes - businesses or their customers. The argument, of course, has usually turned around tax increases, not decreases. Those people resisting increases in corporate rates frequently argue that corporations in reality pay none of the taxes levied on them but, instead, act as a sort of economic pipeline, passing all taxes through to consumers. According to these advocates, any corporate-tax increase will simply lead to higher prices that, for the corporation, offset the increase. Having taken this position, proponents of the "pipeline" theory must also conclude that a tax decrease for corporations will not help profits but will instead flow through, leading to correspondingly lower prices for consumers.
相反,另一些人则认为,企业不仅支付了施加于自身的税收,而且实际上也承担了这些税收。这派观点认为,无论企业税率如何变化,消费者都不会受到影响。
Conversely, others argue that corporations not only pay the taxes levied upon them, but absorb them also. Consumers, this school says, will be unaffected by changes in corporate rates.
当公司税率下调时,实际会发生什么?伯克希尔、华盛顿邮报、大都会等公司,是自身吸收这些好处,还是以降价的形式把这些好处传递给客户?对投资者、经理人以及政策制定者来说,这都是一个重要问题。
What really happens? When the corporate rate is cut, do Berkshire, The Washington Post, Cap Cities, etc., themselves soak up the benefits, or do these companies pass the benefits along to their customers in the form of lower prices? This is an important question for investors and managers, as well as for policymakers.
我们的结论是,在某些情况下,降低公司税的好处完全或几乎完全落在公司及其股东身上;而在另一些情况下,这些好处则全部或几乎全部转给了客户。决定结果的因素在于公司经济特许权的强弱,以及该特许权的盈利能力是否受到监管。
Our conclusion is that in some cases the benefits of lower corporate taxes fall exclusively, or almost exclusively, upon the corporation and its shareholders, and that in other cases the benefits are entirely, or almost entirely, passed through to the customer. What determines the outcome is the strength of the corporations business franchise and whether the profitability of that franchise is regulated.
举个例子,当某个行业的经济特许权很强,且税后利润受到相对精确的监管时,比如电力公用事业,公司税率的变化很大程度上会反映在价格上,而非利润上。税率下调时,价格通常很快会随之下调;税率上调时,价格则会上升,尽管往往不会那么迅速。
For example, when the franchise is strong and after-tax profits are regulated in a relatively precise manner, as is the case with electric utilities, changes in corporate tax rates are largely reflected in prices, not in profits. When taxes are cut, prices will usually be reduced in short order. When taxes are increased, prices will rise, though often not as promptly.
类似的局面也出现在另一个领域——价格竞争激烈的行业,这类行业的公司通常经营着非常薄弱的经济特许权。在这些行业里,自由市场以一种延迟且不规律,但总体有效的方式,“调控”税后利润。实际上,市场在应对价格竞争行业时,所发挥的作用与公用事业委员会对待电力公司时如出一辙。因此,在这些行业中,税收变化最终影响的是价格,而非利润。
A similar result occurs in a second arena - in the price- competitive industry, whose companies typically operate with very weak business franchises. In such industries, the free market "regulates" after-tax profits in a delayed and irregular, but generally effective, manner. The marketplace, in effect, performs much the same function in dealing with the price- competitive industry as the Public Utilities Commission does in dealing with electric utilities. In these industries, therefore, tax changes eventually affect prices more than profits.
不过,对于拥有强大经济特许权、又不受监管管制的企业来说,情况就不一样了:此时,减税的主要受益者是公司及其股东。这类企业从减税中获益的程度,就像电力公司若没有监管机构强制压价时所获得的利益一样。
In the case of unregulated businesses blessed with strong franchises, however, its a different story: the corporation and its shareholders are then the major beneficiaries of tax cuts. These companies benefit from a tax cut much as the electric company would if it lacked a regulator to force down prices.
我们的许多企业——无论是全资拥有还是部分持股——都拥有这样的经济特许权。因此,这些企业税负的降低,最终大多落入我们的口袋,而不是客户的口袋。这话说出来或许不合时宜,但事实无可否认。如果你忍不住想唱反调,不妨想想你所在地区最顶尖的脑外科医生或律师。如今最高个人所得税率从 50% 降到 28%,你真的指望这位专家(本地该领域的“特许权持有者”)的收费会随之降低吗?
Many of our businesses, both those we own in whole and in part, possess such franchises. Consequently, reductions in their taxes largely end up in our pockets rather than the pockets of our customers. While this may be impolitic to state, it is impossible to deny. If you are tempted to believe otherwise, think for a moment of the most able brain surgeon or lawyer in your area. Do you really expect the fees of this expert (the local "franchise-holder" in his or her specialty) to be reduced now that the top personal tax rate is being cut from 50% to 28%?
不过,我们断定低利率对旗下多家运营企业和投资对象有利,这份喜悦应大打折扣,因为我们还有另一个信念:1988 年既定税率,无论是个人还是企业,在我们看来都完全脱离现实。这些税率极有可能给华盛顿带来财政难题,而这一难题将难以与物价稳定并行。因此,我们认为,最终——比如五年之内——税率提高或通胀率上升几乎必然会发生。两者同时出现,也不会让我们意外。
Your joy at our conclusion that lower rates benefit a number of our operating businesses and investees should be severely tempered, however, by another of our convictions: scheduled 1988 tax rates, both individual and corporate, seem totally unrealistic to us. These rates will very likely bestow a fiscal problem on Washington that will prove incompatible with price stability. We believe, therefore, that ultimately - within, say, five years - either higher tax rates or higher inflation rates are almost certain to materialize. And it would not surprise us to see both.
◦ 企业资本利得税率已从 28% 提高至 34%,自 1987 年起生效。这一变化将对伯克希尔产生重大不利影响,因为我们预期未来业务价值的增长,与过去一样,大部分将来自资本利得。例如,我们的三大主要投资——大都会/美国广播公司、GEICO 和《华盛顿邮报》——在年底的市值超过 17 亿美元,接近伯克希尔总净资产的 75%,然而它们每年只为我们带来约 900 万美元的收入。相反,这三家公司都保留了很高比例的收益,我们预期这些留存收益最终将转化为资本利得。
o Corporate capital gains tax rates have been increased from 28% to 34%, effective in 1987. This change will have an important adverse effect on Berkshire because we expect much of our gain in business value in the future, as in the past, to arise from capital gains. For example, our three major investment holdings - Cap Cities, GEICO, and Washington Post - at yearend had a market value of over $1.7 billion, close to 75% of the total net worth of Berkshire, and yet they deliver us only about $9 million in annual income. Instead, all three retain a very high percentage of their earnings, which we expect to eventually deliver us capital gains.
新法提高了未来实现的所有收益的税率,包括法律颁布前就已存在的未实现收益。年末,我们的股权投资中有 12 亿美元的此类未实现收益。新法对我们资产负债表的影响将有所延迟,因为公认会计准则规定,适用于未实现收益的递延所得税负债应按去年的 28% 税率而非当前的 34% 税率列示。这项规定预计很快就会变更。一旦变更,约 7300 万美元将从我们的公认会计准则净资产中消失,转入递延所得税账户。
The new law increases the rate for all gains realized in the future, including the unrealized gains that existed before the law was enacted. At yearend, we had $1.2 billion of such unrealized gains in our equity investments. The effect of the new law on our balance sheet will be delayed because a GAAP rule stipulates that the deferred tax liability applicable to unrealized gains should be stated at last years 28% tax rate rather than the current 34% rate. This rule is expected to change soon. The moment it does, about $73 million will disappear from our GAAP net worth and be added to the deferred tax account.
我们的保险公司所获股息和利息收入,在新法律下将被课以更重的税。首先,所有公司从其他国内公司获得的股息,其应税比例从旧法下的 15% 提高到 20%。其次,关于剩余 80% 部分的变化仅适用于财产/意外险公司:如果支付股息的股票是在 1986 年 8 月 7 日之后购买,那么这剩余部分中的 15% 将被征税。第三项变化同样仅适用于财产/意外险公司,涉及免税债券:保险公司在 1986 年 8 月 7 日之后购买的债券利息,其免税比例仅为 85%。
o Dividend and interest income received by our insurance companies will be taxed far more heavily under the new law. First, all corporations will be taxed on 20% of the dividends they receive from other domestic corporations, up from 15% under the old law. Second, there is a change concerning the residual 80% that applies only to property/casualty companies: 15% of that residual will be taxed if the stocks paying the dividends were purchased after August 7, 1986. A third change, again applying only to property/casualty companies, concerns tax-exempt bonds: interest on bonds purchased by insurers after August 7, 1986 will only be 85% tax-exempt.
最后两项变动至关重要。这意味着,未来年份我们投资所得的收益将比旧法律下大幅减少。依我之见,仅这两项变动最终就可能使我们的保险业务盈利能力较此前预期至少下降 10%。
The last two changes are very important. They mean that our income from the investments we make in future years will be significantly lower than would have been the case under the old law. My best guess is that these changes alone will eventually reduce the earning power of our insurance operation by at least 10% from what we could previously have expected.
新税法还显著改变了财产/意外险公司税款支付的时间安排。其中一项新规定要求我们在纳税申报中对损失准备金进行折现,这一变化将减少抵扣额,增加应纳税所得额。另一项规定将在六年内逐步实施,要求我们将未赚保费准备金的 20% 计入应纳税所得额。
o The new tax law also materially changes the timing of tax payments by property/casualty insurance companies. One new rule requires us to discount our loss reserves in our tax returns, a change that will decrease deductions and increase taxable income. Another rule, to be phased in over six years, requires us to include 20% of our unearned premium reserve in taxable income.
这两条规则都不会改变我们向各位呈报的年度税收计提金额,但都会大幅加快税款支付的时间表。也就是说,以前递延的税款如今要被前置缴纳,这一变化将显著削减我们的业务盈利水平。打个比方来说明代价:假如你在年满 21 岁时,必须立即为这辈子本应获得的全部收入一次性缴税,那么无论你一生的财富还是遗产,都会是原本等到去世时才缴纳全部所得税情况下的一小部分。
Neither rule changes the amount of the annual tax accrual in our reports to you, but each materially accelerates the schedule of payments. That is, taxes formerly deferred will now be front- ended, a change that will significantly cut the profitability of our business. An analogy will suggest the toll: if, upon turning 21, you were required to immediately pay tax on all income you were due to receive throughout your life, both your lifetime wealth and your estate would be a small fraction of what they would be if all taxes on your income were payable only when you died.
细心的读者可能会发现我们的话里有一处前后不一。早前讨论价格竞争激烈的行业时,我们说税收增减对这些公司影响相对较小,大部分会转嫁给客户。但如今我们又说,尽管伯克希尔的财产/意外险公司身处竞争白热化的行业,税收增加也会影响它们的利润。
Attentive readers may spot an inconsistency in what we say. Earlier, discussing companies in price-competitive industries, we suggested that tax increases or reductions affect these companies relatively little, but instead are largely passed along to their customers. But now we are saying that tax increases will affect profits of Berkshires property/casualty companies even though they operate in an intensely price-competitive industry.
这个行业之所以可能成为我们一般规则的例外,是因为并非所有大型保险公司都面临相同的税收算式。重要差异将因几个原因而存在:新的替代性最低税会对某些公司产生重大影响,而对另一些公司则不然;某些大型保险公司拥有巨额亏损结转,这将在至少几年内基本保护其收入免受重大税收影响;还有一些大型保险公司的业绩将被并入拥有非保险业务的公司的合并申报表中。这些不同的情况将导致财产/意外险行业出现差异很大的边际税率。然而,在大多数其他以价格竞争的行业——如铝业、汽车和百货公司——情况并非如此,这些行业的主要参与者通常面对的税收算式大同小异。
The reason this industry is likely to be an exception to our general rule is that not all major insurers will be working with identical tax equations. Important differences will exist for several reasons: a new alternative minimum tax will materially affect some companies but not others; certain major insurers have huge loss carry-forwards that will largely shield their income from significant taxes for at least a few years; and the results of some large insurers will be folded into the consolidated returns of companies with non-insurance businesses. These disparate conditions will produce widely varying marginal tax rates in the property/casualty industry. That will not be the case, however, in most other price-competitive industries, such as aluminum, autos and department stores, in which the major players will generally contend with similar tax equations.
财产与意外险公司缺乏统一的税收核算标准,这意味着加诸该行业的税负增加,很可能不会像在典型的价格竞争性行业中那样,转嫁给客户的程度有限。换言之,保险公司自身将承担大部分新增的税收负担。
The absence of a common tax calculus for property/casualty companies means that the increased taxes falling on the industry will probably not be passed along to customers to the degree that they would in a typical price-competitive industry. Insurers, in other words, will themselves bear much of the new tax burdens.
这些负担的一个部分抵消,是 1987 年 1 月 1 日实施的“新起点”调整,当时我们 1986 年 12 月 31 日的损失准备金数字,出于税务目的,转换到了新要求的折现基础上。(不过,在我们给你们的报告中,准备金将继续采用与过去完全一致的基础——除结构型结算等特殊情形外,不做折现。)“新起点”的净效果,是给我们带来双重扣除:我们将在 1987 年及未来几年,对一部分已经作为 1986 年及更早年份成本全额扣除的已发生未付保险损失,再获得一次税收扣除。
o A partial offset to these burdens is a "fresh start" adjustment that occurred on January 1, 1987 when our December 31, 1986 loss reserve figures were converted for tax purposes to the newly-required discounted basis. (In our reports to you, however, reserves will remain on exactly the same basis as in the past - undiscounted except in special cases such as structured settlements.) The net effect of the "fresh start" is to give us a double deduction: we will get a tax deduction in 1987 and future years for a portion of our-incurred-but-unpaid insurance losses that have already been fully deducted as costs in 1986 and earlier years.
这一变化带来的净资产增长尚未反映在我们的财务报表中。相反,根据现行公认会计准则(GAAP)规定(可能有所变动),这一收益将在未来几年通过减少税务支出,逐步流入利润表,进而体现到净资产中。我们预计,新起点调整带来的总收益将在 3000 万至 4000 万美元之间。但需指出,这是一次性收益,而其他与保险相关的税法调整带来的负面影响不仅持续存在,而且在重要方面会随时间推移而加剧。
The increase in net worth that is produced by this change is not yet reflected in our financial statements. Rather, under present GAAP rules (which may be changed), the benefit will flow into the earnings statement and, consequently, into net worth over the next few years by way of reduced tax charges. We expect the total benefit from the fresh-start adjustment to be in the $30 - $40 million range. It should be noted, however, that this is a one-time benefit, whereas the negative impact of the other insurance-related tax changes is not only ongoing but, in important respects, will become more severe as time passes.
通用公用事业法案被新税法废止了。这意味着从 1987 年起,公司清算要双重课税,先在公司层面征一道,再到股东层面征一道。过去,公司层面的税可以避掉。比如,假如伯克希尔被清算——当然这绝无可能——在新法之下,股东从出售我们资产中拿到的钱,会比在旧法下同样价格出售时少得多。虽然这个结果对我们来说只是理论上的,但这项法律变更会对许多公司产生实质性影响,因此也影响我们对潜在投资的评估。举个例子,那些可能想卖身的油气生产企业、某些传媒公司、房地产公司等,股东能实现的价值很可能大幅缩水,原因就是通用公用事业法案被废止——尽管这些公司的经营面一点没变差。我的印象是,无论是投资者还是管理者,都还没有完全吃透这项重要的法律变动。
o The General Utilities Doctrine was repealed by the new tax law. This means that in 1987 and thereafter there will be a double tax on corporate liquidations, one at the corporate level and another at the shareholder level. In the past, the tax at the corporate level could be avoided, If Berkshire, for example, were to be liquidated - which it most certainly wont be - shareholders would, under the new law, receive far less from the sales of our properties than they would have if the properties had been sold in the past, assuming identical prices in each sale. Though this outcome is theoretical in our case, the change in the law will very materially affect many companies. Therefore, it also affects our evaluations of prospective investments. Take, for example, producing oil and gas businesses, selected media companies, real estate companies, etc. that might wish to sell out. The values that their shareholders can realize are likely to be significantly reduced simply because the General Utilities Doctrine has been repealed - though the companies operating economics will not have changed adversely at all. My impression is that this important change in the law has not yet been fully comprehended by either investors or managers.
我原本希望年报的这一部分能写得简短一些,但这次税法变动内容多、影响大,尤其是对财产/意外险公司而言。如我前面所说,新税法会拖累伯克希尔的业绩,但具体造成多大的负面影响,实在无法精确估算。
This section of our report has been longer and more complicated than I would have liked. But the changes in the law are many and important, particularly for property/casualty insurers. As I have noted, the new law will hurt Berkshires results, but the negative impact is impossible to quantify with any precision.
Miscellaneous
Miscellaneous
去年我们买了一架公务机。你听说的关于这种飞机的说法都是真的:它们非常昂贵,在我们这种不太需要去偏远地方出差的情况下,属于一种奢侈。飞机不仅运营成本高昂,光是看着就花费不菲。税前,一架新的 1500 万美元飞机的资金成本和折旧,每年大概要 300 万美元。而我们自己的飞机,二手买来 85 万美元,这些成本每年接近 20 万美元。
We bought a corporate jet last year. What you have heard about such planes is true: they are very expensive and a luxury in situations like ours where little travel to out-of-the-way places is required. And planes not only cost a lot to operate, they cost a lot just to look at. Pre-tax, cost of capital plus depreciation on a new $15 million plane probably runs $3 million annually. On our own plane, bought for $850,000 used, such costs run close to $200,000 annually.
深知这些数字,你们的董事长过去却不幸地对公司飞机发表过不少相当刻薄的言论。因此,在购买之前,我被逼入了我的伽利略模式。我迅速经历了必要的“反向启示”,如今出行确实轻松了不少——也昂贵了不少。伯克希尔能否从这架飞机上物有所值,还是个未知数,但我会努力争取某项商业成就,好让我能(无论多么牵强地)归功于它。恐怕本·富兰克林早就看透了我。他说:“成为理性 creature 真是件方便的事,因为这样一来,就能为自己想做的任何事找到或制造出理由。”
Cognizant of such figures, your Chairman, unfortunately, has in the past made a number of rather intemperate remarks about corporate jets. Accordingly, prior to our purchase, I was forced into my Galileo mode. I promptly experienced the necessary "counter-revelation" and travel is now considerably easier - and considerably costlier - than in the past. Whether Berkshire will get its moneys worth from the plane is an open question, but I will work at achieving some business triumph that I can (no matter how dubiously) attribute to it. Im afraid Ben Franklin had my number. Said he: "So convenient a thing it is to be a reasonable creature, since it enables one to find or make a reason for everything one has a mind to do."
伯克希尔 1986 年的股东指定捐赠计划,约 97% 的合格股份参与了。通过该计划捐赠的金额为 400 万美元,共惠及 1934 家慈善机构。
About 97% of all eligible shares participated in Berkshires 1986 shareholder-designated contributions program. Contributions made through the program were $4 million, and 1,934 charities were recipients.
我们恳请新股东阅读第 58 页和第 59 页关于股东指定捐赠计划的描述。如果您希望参与未来的计划,我们强烈建议您立即确保您的股票以实际所有人的名义登记,而非以“街道”名义或名义持有人名义登记。1987 年 9 月 30 日未如此登记的股票将不符合 1987 年计划的参与资格。
We urge new shareholders to read the description of our shareholder-designated contributions program that appears on pages 58 and 59. If you wish to participate in future programs, we strongly urge that you immediately make sure your shares are registered in the name of the actual owner, not in "street" name or nominee name. Shares not so registered on September 30, 1987 will be ineligible for the 1987 program.
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去年,近 450 人参加了我们的股东大会,比前一年的约 250 人有所增加(而十年前仅为大约 12 人)。我希望您能在 5 月 19 日来奥马哈与我们相聚。查理和我喜欢回答股东提出的问题,我可以向您保证,我们的股东会提出许多好问题。回答完所有问题可能需要相当长的时间——去年我们回答了大约 65 个问题,所以一旦您自己的疑问得到解答,您可以随时离开。
Last year almost 450 people attended our shareholders meeting, up from about 250 the year before (and from about a dozen ten years ago). I hope you can join us on May 19th in Omaha. Charlie and I like to answer owner-related questions and I can promise you that our shareholders will pose many good ones. Finishing up the questions may take quite a while - we had about 65 last year so you should feel free to leave once your own have been answered.
去年股东大会结束后,一位来自新泽西的股东和一位来自纽约的股东前往家具城,各自从 B 夫人那里购买了一条价值 5000 美元的东方地毯。(准确地说,他们买的地毯在别处可能要花 10000 美元,而这里只需约 5000 美元。)B 夫人很高兴——但并不满足——她还会在今年的股东大会后到店里等着你们。除非我们的股东能打破去年的纪录,否则我就要惹上麻烦了。所以,帮我(也帮你自己)一个忙,去见她一面吧。
Last year, after the meeting, one shareholder from New Jersey and another from New York went to the Furniture Mart, where each purchased a $5,000 Oriental rug from Mrs. B. (To be precise, they purchased rugs that might cost $10,000 elsewhere for which they were charged about $5,000.) Mrs. B was pleased - but not satisfied - and she will be looking for you at the store after this years meeting. Unless our shareholders top last years record, Ill be in trouble. So do me (and yourself) a favor, and go see her.
沃伦·E·巴菲特 1987 年 2 月 27 日 董事会主席
Warren E. Buffett February 27, 1987 Chairman of the Board
Net Income …$40,231 $28,605
======= =======Net Income ............ $40,231 $28,605
======= ======= $362,347 $491,989
======== ======== $362,347 $491,989
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