1987 年致股东信

致股东信 · 原文约 12286 词
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致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司全体股东:

To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

1987 年,我们的净资产增加了 4.64 亿美元,增幅为 19.5%。自现任管理层接手以来的 23 年间,我们的每股账面价值已从 19.46 美元增长到 2477.47 美元,年复合增长率为 23.1%。

Our gain in net worth during 1987 was $464 million, or 19.5%. Over the last 23 years (that is, since present management took over), our per-share book value has grown from $19.46 to $2,477.47, or at a rate of 23.1% compounded annually.

真正要紧的当然是每股商业价值的增长速度,而非账面价值。多数情况下,一家公司的账面价值与商业价值几乎毫不相干。举个例子,LTV 和 Baldwin-United 在破产前夕公布的年终审计报告,账面价值分别高达 6.52 亿美元和 3.97 亿美元。反过来,Belridge Oil 在 1979 年以 36 亿美元卖给壳牌,账面价值却只有 1.77 亿美元。

What counts, of course, is the rate of gain in per-share business value, not book value. In many cases, a corporation's book value and business value are almost totally unrelated. For example, just before they went bankrupt, LTV and Baldwin-United published yearend audits showing their book values to be $652 million and $397 million, respectively. Conversely, Belridge Oil was sold to Shell in 1979 for $3.6 billion although its book value was only $177 million.

在伯克希尔,这两个数字倒是贴得相当紧。过去十年,我们商业价值的增速略微跑赢了账面价值的增速,这个好消息在 1987 年得以延续。

At Berkshire, however, the two valuations have tracked rather closely, with the growth rate in business value over the last decade moderately outpacing the growth rate in book value. This good news continued in 1987.

商业价值相对账面价值的溢价之所以拉大,原因很简单:我们手里有几家出类拔萃的企业,而经营它们的经理人更是出类拔萃。

Our premium of business value to book value has widened for two simple reasons: We own some remarkable businesses and they are run by even more remarkable managers.

你有理由怀疑后半句话。毕竟,很少有首席执行官会告诉股东,替自己掌舵的是一帮草包。正因为没人肯这么说,才有了那些读来别扭的年报。首席执行官常常在致股东信里洋洋洒洒写上好几页,细数公司糟糕得令人心痛的业绩,末了却总要用一段暖心话作结,把手下这帮经理称作“我们最宝贵的资产”。这类说辞有时不禁让人纳闷:那别的资产又算什么?

You have a right to question that second assertion. After all, CEOs seldom tell their shareholders that they have assembled a bunch of turkeys to run things. Their reluctance to do so makes for some strange annual reports. Oftentimes, in his shareholders' letter, a CEO will go on for pages detailing corporate performance that is woefully inadequate. He will nonetheless end with a warm paragraph describing his managerial comrades as "our most precious asset." Such comments sometimes make you wonder what the other assets can possibly be.

而在伯克希尔,我对旗下经营团队的评价若说有偏差,那也只会是偏低。要弄明白其中缘由,先请看第 7 页,那里列出了我们七家最大的非金融子公司的盈利(按历史成本会计口径):《布法罗新闻》、费希海默、柯比、内布拉斯加家具城、斯科特-费泽制造集团、喜诗糖果和世界图书。1987 年,这七家业务单元的息税前经营利润合计为 1.8 亿美元。

<<<END P 7>>>

At Berkshire, however, my appraisal of our operating managers is, if anything, understated. To understand why, first take a look at page 7, where we show the earnings (on an historical-cost accounting basis) of our seven largest non- financial units: Buffalo News, Fechheimer, Kirby, Nebraska Furniture Mart, Scott Fetzer Manufacturing Group, See's Candies, and World Book. In 1987, these seven business units had combined operating earnings before interest and taxes of $180 million.

单看这个数字,说明不了经营的好坏。要作出评判,还得知道赚这些钱动用了多少资本——包括债务和股权。债务在这七家单元里几乎无足轻重:1987 年它们的净利息支出只有 200 万美元。因此,它们靠股权资本赚到的税前利润是 1.78 亿美元;而这些股权——同样按历史成本计——不过 1.75 亿美元。

By itself, this figure says nothing about economic performance. To evaluate that, we must know how much total capital - debt and equity - was needed to produce these earnings. Debt plays an insignificant role at our seven units: Their net interest expense in 1987 was only $2 million. Thus, pre-tax earnings on the equity capital employed by these businesses amounted to $178 million. And this equity - again on an historical-cost basis - was only $175 million.

倘若这七家单元合并为一家公司,1987 年的税后利润约为 1 亿美元,净资产收益率约 57%。这样的回报率在哪里都难得一见,更别说出现在规模庞大、业务多元、几乎不用杠杆的公司身上了。不妨拿个尺子来量一量:《财富》杂志在 1988 年《投资指南》特刊中披露,在 500 家最大的工业公司和 500 家最大的服务公司里,过去十年平均净资产收益率超过 30% 的仅有六家;这 1000 家里表现最好的是 Commerce Clearing House,为 40.2%。

If these seven business units had operated as a single company, their 1987 after-tax earnings would have been approximately $100 million - a return of about 57% on equity capital. You'll seldom see such a percentage anywhere, let alone at large, diversified companies with nominal leverage. Here's a benchmark: In its 1988 Investor's Guide issue, Fortune reported that among the 500 largest industrial companies and 500 largest service companies, only six had averaged a return on equity of over 30% during the previous decade. The best performer among the 1000 was Commerce Clearing House at 40.2%.

当然,伯克希尔从这七家单元获得的回报,并没有它们本身的回报那么高,因为我们收购时付出的价格,整体上远超其股权资本的账面数额。这些业务在我们账上的记账价值,比其基础资产的历史会计价值高出约 2.22 亿美元。不过,评判这些单元的经理人,看的应是他们在基础资产上创造的回报——我们花多少钱买下一家企业,并不会改变经理人手头可动用的资本。(打个比方,你若以账面价值六倍的价钱买入 Commerce Clearing House 的股票、当上它的股东和部分所有者,CCH 的净资产收益率也不会因此改变。)

Of course, the returns that Berkshire earns from these seven units are not as high as their underlying returns because, in aggregate, we bought the businesses at a substantial premium to underlying equity capital. Overall, these operations are carried on our books at about $222 million above the historical accounting values of the underlying assets. However, the managers of the units should be judged by the returns they achieve on the underlying assets; what we pay for a business does not affect the amount of capital its manager has to work with. (If, to become a shareholder and part owner of Commerce Clearing House, you pay, say, six times book value, that does not change CCH's return on equity.)

从上面这些数字里,可以引出三条要紧的推论。其一,这七家单元当下的商业价值,远高于其历史账面价值,也远高于它们在伯克希尔资产负债表上的记账价值。其二,由于经营这些业务所需的资本极少,它们既能持续增长,又能把几乎全部盈利腾出来投向新的机会。其三,掌舵它们的都是真正非凡的经理人。布拉姆金一家、赫尔德曼一家、查克·哈金斯、斯坦·利普西和拉尔夫·谢伊,无一不是把过人的才干、精力与品格熔于一炉,才做出如此出众的财务业绩。

Three important inferences can be drawn from the figures I have cited. First, the current business value of these seven units is far above their historical book value and also far above the value at which they are carried on Berkshire's balance sheet. Second, because so little capital is required to run these businesses, they can grow while concurrently making almost all of their earnings available for deployment in new opportunities. Third, these businesses are run by truly extraordinary managers. The Blumkins, the Heldmans, Chuck Huggins, Stan Lipsey, and Ralph Schey all meld unusual talent, energy and character to achieve exceptional financial results.

当初与这些经理人携手时,我们出于种种理由抱有很高的期望。然而每一回,现实都把期望远远甩在了身后。我们得到的远比应得的多,可我们乐得接受这份不公。(这一点我们赞同杰克·本尼领取表演奖时说的话:“我不配得这个奖,不过话说回来,我还有关节炎呢,那个我也不配得。”)

For good reasons, we had very high expectations when we joined with these managers. In every case, however, our experience has greatly exceeded those expectations. We have received far more than we deserve, but we are willing to accept such inequities. (We subscribe to the view Jack Benny expressed upon receiving an acting award: "I don't deserve this, but then, I have arthritis and I don't deserve that either.")

除了这“七圣徒”,我们还有另一大业务板块——保险,我认为它的商业价值同样远高于投入其中的净资产。只是,给一家财产意外险公司估算商业价值,实在是件极不精确的活儿。这个行业起伏无常,报出的盈利常常严重失真,而税法近来的变动还会重创未来的盈利能力。尽管有这些麻烦,我们依旧喜欢这门生意,它也几乎注定会继续是我们最大的业务。在迈克·戈德堡的经营下,保险业务假以时日应会待我们不薄。

Beyond the Sainted Seven, we have our other major unit, insurance, which I believe also has a business value well above the net assets employed in it. However, appraising the business value of a property-casualty insurance company is a decidedly imprecise process. The industry is volatile, reported earnings oftentimes are seriously inaccurate, and recent changes in the Tax Code will severely hurt future profitability. Despite these problems, we like the business and it will almost certainly remain our largest operation. Under Mike Goldberg's management, the insurance business should treat us well over time.

有这样一批经理人在,我和搭档查理·芒格几乎不必插手经营。事实上,可以说我们管得越多,事情反而办得越少。我们没有公司层面的会议,没有预算,也没有绩效考核(当然,我们的经理人常常发现这些做法在各自的单元里很有用)。说到底,我们能教布拉姆金一家什么家居生意,又能教赫尔德曼一家什么制服门道呢?

With managers like ours, my partner, Charlie Munger, and I have little to do with operations. in fact, it is probably fair to say that if we did more, less would be accomplished. We have no corporate meetings, no corporate budgets, and no performance reviews (though our managers, of course, oftentimes find such procedures useful at their operating units). After all, what can we tell the Blumkins about home furnishings, or the Heldmans about uniforms?

我们对子公司经营的最大贡献,就是鼓掌。但这不是波莉安娜式不分青红皂白的喝彩,而是有见识的掌声——它建立在我们两人漫长职业生涯里对企业业绩和经理人行为的密切观察之上。查理和我见惯了商界的平庸,因此才格外懂得欣赏一场大师级的演出。面对经营团队 1987 年的表现,唯一得体的回应只有一个:持久而震耳欲聋的掌声。

Our major contribution to the operations of our subsidiaries is applause. But it is not the indiscriminate applause of a Pollyanna. Rather it is informed applause based upon the two long careers we have spent intensively observing business performance and managerial behavior. Charlie and I have seen so much of the ordinary in business that we can truly appreciate a virtuoso performance. Only one response to the 1987 performance of our operating managers is appropriate: sustained, deafening applause.

报告盈利的来源

Sources of Reported Earnings

下一页的表格列出了伯克希尔报告盈利的主要来源。表中,商誉摊销及其他重大的并购价格会计调整,并未分摊到各自对应的业务上,而是汇总起来单独列示。这样一来,各项业务呈现出的盈利,就仿佛我们从未收购过它们一般。在 1983 年和 1986 年年报的致股东信附录里,我解释了为什么我们认为这种呈现方式,比逐项业务作并购价格调整的标准 GAAP 报表,对投资者和经理人更有用。当然,表中列示的净利润总额,与经审计财务报表里的 GAAP 数字完全一致。

The table on the following page shows the major sources of Berkshire's reported earnings. In the table, amortization of Goodwill and other major purchase-price accounting adjustments are not charged against the specific businesses to which they apply but, instead, are aggregated and shown separately. In effect, this procedure presents the earnings of our businesses as they would have been reported had we not purchased them. In appendixes to my letters in the 1983 and 1986 annual reports, I explained why this form of presentation seems to us to be more useful to investors and managers than the standard GAAP presentation, which makes purchase-price adjustments on a business-by business basis. The total net earnings we show in the table are, of course, identical to the GAAP figures in our audited financial statements.

第 36 至 38 页的业务分部数据、以及第 40 至 44 页的管理层讨论部分,还有更多关于各项业务的信息,其中的分部盈利是按 GAAP 口径列报的。我恳请你读一读这些内容,也读一读查理·芒格致西科金融股东的信——那封信从第 45 页开始,介绍了这家子公司的各项业务。

In the Business Segment Data on pages 36-38 and in the Management's Discussion section on pages 40-44 you will find much additional information about our businesses. In these sections you will also find our segment earnings reported on a GAAP basis. I urge you to read that material, as well as Charlie Munger's letter to Wesco shareholders, describing the various businesses of that subsidiary, which starts on page 45.

(单位:千美元)

(000s omitted)

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原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

                                                         伯克希尔在净利润中的份额
                                                         (税后及扣除少数股东权益后)
                                                     税前利润
                                   --------------------------------
                                    1987       1986        1987       1986
                                   --------   --------    --------   --------
经营利润:
  保险集团:
    承保    (55,429)   (55,844)    (20,696)   (29,864)
    净投资收益    152,483    107,143     136,658     96,440
  《布法罗新闻》    39,410     34,736      21,304     16,918
  Fechheimer(1986 年 6 月 3 日收购)  13,332     8,400      6,580      3,792
  Kirby     22,408     20,218      12,891     10,508
  内布拉斯加家具城     16,837     17,685       7,554      7,192
  斯科特-费泽制造集团     30,591     25,358      17,555     13,354
  喜诗糖果     31,693     30,347      17,363     15,176
  西科金融(除保险业务)     6,209      5,542       4,978      5,550
  世界图书     25,745     21,978      15,136     11,670
  商誉摊销     (2,862)    (2,555)     (2,862)    (2,555)
  其他购买价格会计调整    (5,546)   (10,033)     (6,544)   (11,031)
  债务利息及提前还款罚金   (11,474)   (23,891)     (5,905)   (12,213)
  股东指定捐赠    (4,938)    (3,997)     (2,963)    (2,158)
  其他     22,460     20,770      13,696      8,685
                                   --------   --------    --------   --------
  经营利润    280,919    195,857     214,745    131,464
  证券出售     27,319    216,242      19,807    150,897
                                   --------   --------    --------   --------
总利润——所有实体合计   $308,238   $412,099    $234,552   $282,361
                                   ========   ========    ========   ========
                                                         Berkshire's Share 
                                                          of Net Earnings 
                                                         (after taxes and 
                                   Pre-Tax Earnings     minority interests)
                                 -------------------    -------------------
                                   1987       1986        1987       1986 
                                 --------   --------    --------   --------
Operating Earnings: 
  Insurance Group: 
    Underwriting ............... $(55,429)  $(55,844)   $(20,696)  $(29,864) 
    Net Investment Income ......  152,483    107,143     136,658     96,440 
  Buffalo News .................   39,410     34,736      21,304     16,918 
  Fechheimer (Acquired 6/3/86)     13,332      8,400       6,580      3,792 
  Kirby ........................   22,408     20,218      12,891     10,508 
  Nebraska Furniture Mart ......   16,837     17,685       7,554      7,192 
  Scott Fetzer Mfg. Group ......   30,591     25,358      17,555     13,354 
  See's Candies ................   31,693     30,347      17,363     15,176 
  Wesco - other than Insurance      6,209      5,542       4,978      5,550 
  World Book ...................   25,745     21,978      15,136     11,670 
  Amortization of Goodwill .....   (2,862)    (2,555)     (2,862)    (2,555) 
  Other Purchase-Price 
     Accounting Adjustments ....   (5,546)   (10,033)     (6,544)   (11,031) 
  Interest on Debt and 
     Pre-Payment Penalty .......  (11,474)   (23,891)     (5,905)   (12,213) 
  Shareholder-Designated 
     Contributions .............   (4,938)    (3,997)     (2,963)    (2,158) 
  Other ........................   22,460     20,770      13,696      8,685 
                                 --------   --------    --------   --------
  Operating Earnings ...........  280,919    195,857     214,745    131,464 
  Sales of Securities ..........   27,319    216,242      19,807    150,897 
                                 --------   --------    --------   --------
Total Earnings - All Entities .. $308,238   $412,099    $234,552   $282,361 
                                 ========   ========    ========   ========

吉普赛·罗斯·李在晚年某次生日时宣布:“去年有的东西我今天全有,只不过全都往下挪了两英寸。”正如表格所示,1987 年我们几乎所有的业务,都以一种更加令人振奋的方式“上了年纪”。

Gypsy Rose Lee announced on one of her later birthdays: "I have everything I had last year; it's just that it's all two inches lower." As the table shows, during 1987 almost all of our businesses aged in a more upbeat way.

这些业务没什么新鲜事可讲——这是好事,不是坏事。剧烈的变化和超凡的回报,通常难以并存。可大多数投资者的行事偏偏相反:他们往往把最高的市盈率,慷慨地给那些名头听着新奇、许诺要天翻地覆的业务。这般前景,让投资者尽可畅想未来的盈利,而不必直面眼下的经营现实。对这些爱做梦的投资者来说,任何一场相亲都胜过隔壁那位姑娘,不管她本身有多好。

There's not a lot new to report about these businesses - and that's good, not bad. Severe change and exceptional returns usually don't mix. Most investors, of course, behave as if just the opposite were true. That is, they usually confer the highest price-earnings ratios on exotic-sounding businesses that hold out the promise of feverish change. That prospect lets investors fantasize about future profitability rather than face today's business realities. For such investor-dreamers, any blind date is preferable to one with the girl next door, no matter how desirable she may be.

然而经验表明,最好的经营回报,往往出自那些今天所做与五年前、十年前几乎一模一样的公司。这并非替经理人的因循守旧开脱。企业总有机会改进服务、拓展产品线、精进制造工艺,诸如此类的机会自然该抓住。但一家不断遭遇重大变动的企业,也就撞上了许许多多铸成大错的机会。何况,一片永远剧烈动荡的经济地貌,难以在上面筑起堡垒般的经营特许权——而这种特许权,通常正是长久保持高回报的关键。

Experience, however, indicates that the best business returns are usually achieved by companies that are doing something quite similar today to what they were doing five or ten years ago. That is no argument for managerial complacency. Businesses always have opportunities to improve service, product lines, manufacturing techniques, and the like, and obviously these opportunities should be seized. But a business that constantly encounters major change also encounters many chances for major error. Furthermore, economic terrain that is forever shifting violently is ground on which it is difficult to build a fortress-like business franchise. Such a franchise is usually the key to sustained high returns.

前面提到的那份《财富》研究,也印证了我们的看法。这 1000 家公司里,只有 25 家同时通过了两道卓越的门槛:1977 至 1986 这十年间平均净资产收益率超过 20%,且没有哪一年低于 15%。这些商界超级明星同时也是股市超级明星:十年里,25 家中有 24 家跑赢了标普 500 指数。

The Fortune study I mentioned earlier supports our view. Only 25 of the 1,000 companies met two tests of economic excellence - an average return on equity of over 20% in the ten years, 1977 through 1986, and no year worse than 15%. These business superstars were also stock market superstars: During the decade, 24 of the 25 outperformed the S&P 500.

这批《财富》冠军也许会在两个方面让你意外。其一,相比它们的付息能力,绝大多数用的杠杆都少得可怜——真正的好生意通常不必借钱。其二,除了一家算“高科技”、另有几家生产处方药,其余公司做的营生总体上都相当平淡无奇。它们卖的大多是不起眼的产品或服务,卖法也和十年前差不多(只是如今数量更大、价格更高,或者两者兼有)。这 25 家公司的记录印证了一点:把一门本已强大的经营特许权发挥到极致,或者专心做好一个成功的主业,通常才是造就非凡经济效益的正道。

The Fortune champs may surprise you in two respects. First, most use very little leverage compared to their interest-paying capacity. Really good businesses usually don't need to borrow. Second, except for one company that is "high-tech" and several others that manufacture ethical drugs, the companies are in businesses that, on balance, seem rather mundane. Most sell non- sexy products or services in much the same manner as they did ten years ago (though in larger quantities now, or at higher prices, or both). The record of these 25 companies confirms that making the most of an already strong business franchise, or concentrating on a single winning business theme, is what usually produces exceptional economics.

伯克希尔的经历也大抵如此。我们的经理人做的都是些相当寻常的事,只不过做得格外出色,便造就了非凡的成果。他们守护自己的特许权,把成本盯得很紧,依托既有优势去寻觅新产品、新市场,从不让自己分心。他们在各自业务的细枝末节上下足了功夫,效果一目了然。

Berkshire's experience has been similar. Our managers have produced extraordinary results by doing rather ordinary things - but doing them exceptionally well. Our managers protect their franchises, they control costs, they search for new products and markets that build on their existing strengths and they don't get diverted. They work exceptionally hard at the details of their businesses, and it shows.

以下是近况更新:

Here's an update:

阿加莎·克里斯蒂的丈夫是位考古学家,她说这是给配偶挑的最完美的职业:“你越老,他越是对你感兴趣。”不过,该对 B 夫人(罗丝·布拉姆金)感兴趣的,是研究企业管理的人,而不是考古学家——她是内布拉斯加家具城 94 岁高龄的董事长。

o Agatha Christie, whose husband was an archaeologist, said that was the perfect profession for one's spouse: "The older you become, the more interested they are in you." It is students of business management, not archaeologists, who should be interested in Mrs. B (Rose Blumkin), the 94-year-old chairman of Nebraska Furniture Mart.

五十年前,B 夫人靠 500 美元起家,如今内布拉斯加家具城已稳坐全美最大家居用品店的头把交椅。B 夫人依旧每周工作七天,从每天开门营业一直干到打烊。采购、销售、管理,样样亲力亲为,把竞争对手甩得没影。在我看来,她还在加速,很可能再过五到十年才能把潜力完全释放出来。为此,我已说服董事会废掉“满 100 岁强制退休”那条规矩。(也早该如此:一年年过去,这条规矩在我眼里越来越荒唐。)

Fifty years ago Mrs. B started the business with $500, and today NFM is far and away the largest home furnishings store in the country. Mrs. B continues to work seven days a week at the job from the opening of each business day until the close. She buys, she sells, she manages - and she runs rings around the competition. It's clear to me that she's gathering speed and may well reach her full potential in another five or ten years. Therefore, I've persuaded the Board to scrap our mandatory retirement-at-100 policy. (And it's about time: With every passing year, this policy has seemed sillier to me.)

1987 年,内布拉斯加家具城净销售额为 1.426 亿美元,比 1986 年增长 8%。全美找不出第二家这样的店,也找不出第二个像 B 夫人这样培养出接班人的家族:她的儿子路易,以及路易的三个儿子罗恩、欧文和史蒂夫,个个都承袭了 B 夫人的商业直觉、诚信和干劲。他们并肩作战,各自本已很强,合在一起更是远大于各部分之和。

Net sales of NFM were $142.6 million in 1987, up 8% from 1986. There's nothing like this store in the country, and there's nothing like the family Mrs. B has produced to carry on: Her son Louie, and his three boys, Ron, Irv and Steve, possess the business instincts, integrity and drive of Mrs. B. They work as a team and, strong as each is individually, the whole is far greater than the sum of the parts.

布拉姆金一家干得漂亮,我们这些所有者受益,家具城的顾客受益更甚。1987 年,顾客从家具城购物,省下了约 3000 万美元。换句话说,同样的东西若在别处买,得多掏这么多钱。

The superb job done by the Blumkins benefits us as owners, but even more dramatically benefits NFM's customers. They saved about $30 million in 1987 by buying from NFM. In other words, the goods they bought would have cost that much more if purchased elsewhere.

去年八月我收到一封匿名信,你读了准觉得有趣:“看到伯克希尔第二季度利润下滑,深表遗憾。有个法子或许能帮你们挽回一部分损失。(原文如此)查一查家具城的定价吧。你会发现他们还留着 10% 到 20% 的利润空间没赚。按 1.4 亿美元的销售额算,这笔多出来的利润就是 2800 万美元,搁谁口袋里都不是小数目!再去查查别家卖家具、地毯、电器和电视的。把价格提到合理利润的水平,会有好处。谢谢。/署名:一位竞争者。”

You'll enjoy an anonymous letter I received last August: "Sorry to see Berkshire profits fall in the second quarter. One way you may gain back part of your lost. (sic) Check the pricing at The Furniture Mart. You will find that they are leaving 10% to 20% on the table. This additional profit on $140 million of sells (sic) is $28 million. Not small change in anyone's pocket! Check out other furniture, carpet, appliance and T.V. dealers. Your raising prices to a reasonable profit will help. Thank you. /signed/ A Competitor."

内布拉斯加家具城会继续遵循 B 夫人的信条一路成长繁荣:“卖得便宜,讲真话。”

NFM will continue to grow and prosper by following Mrs. B's maxim: "Sell cheap and tell the truth."

在同等规模或更大的强势报纸中,《布法罗新闻》仍在两个重要方面领跑全国:(1)工作日和周日渗透率(即报纸主要市场区域内购买该报的家庭占比);(2)其“新闻版面率”(即报纸用于新闻的篇幅占比)。

<<<END P 1>>>

o Among dominant papers of its size or larger, the Buffalo News continues to be the national leader in two important ways: (1) its weekday and Sunday penetration rate (the percentage of households in the paper's primary market area that purchase it); and (2) its "news-hole" percentage (the portion of the paper devoted to news).

同一份报纸在这两项上都拔得头筹,或许并非巧合:内容格外“新闻扎实”的报纸受众更广,受众广又反过来推高渗透率。当然,数量还得配得上质量。这不仅意味着报道好、文笔好,还意味着新鲜和贴近。一份报纸要做到不可或缺,就必须抢先把读者想知道的许多事告诉他们——那些事若不看这份报纸,他们要么很久以后才知道,要么永远不会知道。

It may not be coincidence that one newspaper leads in both categories: an exceptionally "newsrich" product makes for broad audience appeal, which in turn leads to high penetration. Of course, quantity must be matched by quality. This not only means good reporting and good writing; it means freshness and relevance. To be indispensable, a paper must promptly tell its readers many things they want to know but won't otherwise learn until much later, if ever.

在《布法罗新闻》,我们每 24 小时推出七个全新版本,每一版的内容都有大幅改动。举个也许会让你意外的小例子:讣告版我们每一版都重排,一天七次;任何新增的讣告,都会一直续排进接下来的六个版本,直到一个出版周期走完。

At the News, we put out seven fresh editions every 24 hours, each one extensively changed in content. Here's a small example that may surprise you: We redo the obituary page in every edition of the News, or seven times a day. Any obituary added runs through the next six editions until the publishing cycle has been completed.

一份报纸把国内和国际新闻报道得深入、精彩,固然至关重要。但同样至关重要的,是做好唯有本地报纸才能做的事:及时而详尽地记录社区生活里那些对个人举足轻重、别处却无人报道的细节。要把这件事做好,就得覆盖极广的新闻——这意味着要有大量版面,而且用得聪明。

It's vital, of course, for a newspaper to cover national and international news well and in depth. But it is also vital for it to do what only a local newspaper can: promptly and extensively chronicle the personally-important, otherwise- unreported details of community life. Doing this job well requires a very broad range of news - and that means lots of space, intelligently used.

1987 年,我们的新闻版面率约为 50%,年年如此。若把它压到更常见的 40%,每年大约能省下 400 万美元的新闻纸钱。这一点我们毫无兴趣——哪怕出于某种缘故利润率大幅缩水,我们照样没有兴趣。

Our news hole was about 50% in 1987, just as it has been year after year. If we were to cut it to a more typical 40%, we would save approximately $4 million annually in newsprint costs. That interests us not at all - and it won't interest us even if, for one reason or another, our profit margins should significantly shrink.

查理和我不信弹性运营预算那一套,比如“收入是 Y 时,非直接费用可以是 X;收入降到 Y-5% 时,就得砍下来”。难道仅仅因为某年某季利润下滑,我们就该削减《布法罗新闻》的新闻版面,或降低喜诗的产品和服务质量?又或者反过来,仅仅因为眼下财源滚滚,就该添一位内部经济学家、一位企业战略师、一场机构形象广告,或别的对伯克希尔毫无用处的东西?

Charlie and I do not believe in flexible operating budgets, as in "Non-direct expenses can be X if revenues are Y, but must be reduced if revenues are Y - 5%." Should we really cut our news hole at the Buffalo News, or the quality of product and service at See's, simply because profits are down during a given year or quarter? Or, conversely, should we add a staff economist, a corporate strategist, an institutional advertising campaign or something else that does Berkshire no good simply because the money currently is rolling in?

这在我们看来毫无道理。利润红火就添人添事,盈利收缩就砍掉要紧的人和事,这两样我们都想不通。这种忽上忽下的做派,既不像做生意,也不近人情。我们的目标,是始终为伯克希尔的客户和员工做合乎情理的事,绝不添置多余之物。(“那公司专机又算什么?”你无礼地追问。嗯,人偶尔总得凌驾于原则之上。)

That makes no sense to us. We neither understand the adding of unneeded people or activities because profits are booming, nor the cutting of essential people or activities because profitability is shrinking. That kind of yo-yo approach is neither business-like nor humane. Our goal is to do what makes sense for Berkshire's customers and employees at all times, and never to add the unneeded. ("But what about the corporate jet?" you rudely ask. Well, occasionally a man must rise above principle.)

尽管自 1984 年以来《布法罗新闻》的收入只是温和增长,但出版人斯坦·利普西经营有方,利润增长十分亮眼。好几年来,我一直错误地预言《布法罗新闻》的利润率会下滑。今年我总算不会让你失望了:1988 年利润率必定缩水,利润恐怕也会跟着下降,主因是新闻纸成本飞涨。

Although the News' revenues have grown only moderately since 1984, superb management by Stan Lipsey, its publisher, has produced excellent profit growth. For several years, I have incorrectly predicted that profit margins at the News would fall. This year I will not let vou down: Margins will, without question, shrink in 1988 and profit may fall as well. Skyrocketing newsprint costs will be the major cause.

费希海默兄弟公司是我们又一家家族企业——和布拉姆金一家一样,多好的一个家族。赫尔德曼家三代人几十年如一日,让这家制服制造兼经销商的销售和利润节节攀升。伯克希尔在 1986 年取得费希海默的控股权,那一年利润创下新高。此后赫尔德曼一家并未松劲,去年盈利大幅增长,1988 年前景看好。

o Fechheimer Bros. Company is another of our family businesses - and, like the Blumkins, what a family. Three generations of Heldmans have for decades consistently, built the sales and profits of this manufacturer and distributor of uniforms. In the year that Berkshire acquired its controlling interest in Fechheimer - 1986 - profits were a record. The Heldmans didn't slow down after that. Last year earnings increased substantially and the outlook is good for 1988.

制服生意谈不上什么魔法,唯一的魔法在赫尔德曼一家身上。鲍勃、乔治、加里、罗杰和弗雷德对这行了如指掌,经营起来还乐在其中。能与他们结为伙伴,是我们的福分。

There's nothing magic about the Uniform business; the only magic is in the Heldmans. Bob, George, Gary, Roger and Fred know the business inside and out, and they have fun running it. We are fortunate to be in partnership with them.

查克·哈金斯在喜诗糖果不断刷新纪录,从大约 16 年前我们收购当天他走马上任起便一直如此。1987 年,销量创下略低于 2500 万磅的新高。而且按磅计算,同店销售额连续第二年几乎持平。你若纳闷,这其实算是进步:此前六年,同店销售额年年下滑。

o Chuck Huggins continues to set new records at See's, just as he has ever since we put him in charge on the day of our purchase some 16 years ago. In 1987, volume hit a new high at slightly Under 25 million pounds. For the second year in a row, moreover, same-store sales, measured in pounds, were virtually unchanged. In case you are wondering, that represents improvement: In each of the previous six years, same-store sales had fallen.

尽管 1986 年圣诞季本已格外强劲,1987 年圣诞季的同店对比却比全年任何时候都更好。于是喜诗的季节性更趋极端——1987 年,我们约 85% 的利润是在 12 月赚到的。

Although we had a particularly strong 1986 Christmas season, we racked up better store-for-store comparisons in the 1987 Christmas season than at any other time of the year. Thus, the seasonal factor at See's becomes even more extreme. In 1987, about 85% of our profit was earned during December.

糖果店逛着有趣,可对多数店主而言并不有趣。据我们所知,近年来除了喜诗,几乎没人靠经营糖果店赚到像样的利润。可见查克在喜诗的战绩,绝非行业水涨船高所致,而是独一份的表现。

Candy stores are fun to visit, but most have not been fun for their owners. From what we can learn, practically no one besides See's has made significant profits in recent years from the operation of candy shops. Clearly, Chuck's record at See's is not due to a rising industry tide. Rather, it is a one-of-a- kind performance.

他的成就离不开一流的产品——这我们有——但也离不开对顾客发自内心的喜爱。查克 100% 以顾客为中心,他的态度也为喜诗上下定下了基调。

His achievement requires an excellent product - which we have - but it also requires genuine affection for the customer. Chuck is 100% customer-oriented, and his attitude sets the tone for the rest of the See's organization.

举个查克做事的例子。在喜诗,我们会定期添几款新糖果,同时汰掉几款,把产品线维持在 100 种上下。去年春天,我们挑了 14 款准备淘汰,结果其中两款被顾客深深惦记。他们二话不说,就把对我们眼光的看法一股脑倒了出来:“但凡参与这个可恶决定的喜诗人,都遭天谴吧……”“愿你们的新松露在运途中化掉,愿它们含在嘴里发酸,愿你们成本涨、利润跌……”“我们正在研究能否申请一道强制令,逼你们供货……”你大概想象得到。前前后后,我们收到了好几百封信。

Here's an example of Chuck in action: At See's we regularly add new pieces of candy to our mix and also cull a few to keep our product line at about 100 varieties. Last spring we selected 14 items for elimination. Two, it turned out, were badly missed by our customers, who wasted no time in letting us know what they thought of our judgment: "A pox on all in See's who participated in the abominable decision...;" "May your new truffles melt in transit, may they sour in people's mouths, may your costs go up and your profits go down...;" "We are investigating the possibility of obtaining a mandatory injunction requiring you to supply...;" You get the picture. In all, we received many hundreds of letters.

查克不但把这两款重新上架,还把这次失手变成了机会。每一位写信的人都收到了一封诚恳而周全的解释回信,信里写道:“万幸的是,每当我做出糟糕的决定,往往会有好事随之而来……”随信还附上一张特别礼券。

Chuck not only reintroduced the pieces, he turned this miscue into an opportunity. Each person who had written got a complete and honest explanation in return. Said Chuck's letter: "Fortunately, when I make poor decisions, good things often happen as a result...;" And with the letter went a special gift certificate.

喜诗过去两年只小幅提过价。1988 年提价幅度稍大,但仍算温和。到目前为止销售疲软,喜诗今年恐怕难以增加盈利。

See's increased prices only slightly in the last two years. In 1988 we have raised prices somewhat more, though still moderately. To date, sales have been weak and it may be difficult for See's to improve its earnings this year.

世界图书、柯比和斯科特-费泽制造集团都归拉尔夫·谢伊掌管——有他在,真是我们的运气。去年我告诉过你,斯科特-费泽 1986 年的业绩远超查理和我收购时的预期;1987 年的成绩更上一层楼,税前盈利增长 10%,平均动用的资本却明显下降。

o World Book, Kirby, and the Scott Fetzer Manufacturing Group are all under the management of Ralph Schey. And what a lucky thing for us that they are. I told you last year that Scott Fetzer performance in 1986 had far exceeded the expectations that Charlie and I had at the time of our purchase. Results in 1987 were even better. Pre-tax earnings rose 10% while average capital employed declined significantly.

拉尔夫对手下 19 家企业的驾驭堪称惊人,他还延揽了一批出色的经理人来经营它们。我们巴不得再找几家单元,塞到拉尔夫的羽翼之下。

Ralph's mastery of the 19 businesses for which he is responsible is truly amazing, and he has also attracted some outstanding managers to run them. We would love to find a few additional units that could be put under Ralph's wing.

斯科特-费泽旗下业务繁多,无法一一细说,这里只挑我们偏爱的一家更新一下近况:1987 年底,世界图书推出了自 1962 年以来改动最大的一版。彩色照片从 14000 张增至 24000 张,逾 6000 个条目经过修订,新增 840 位撰稿人。查理和我把这套书推荐给你和你的家人,正如我们推荐世界图书为更小的孩子出版的“儿童手工”和“早期求知世界”一样。

The businesses of Scott Fetzer are too numerous to describe in detail. Let's just update you on one of our favorites: At the end of 1987, World Book introduced its most dramatically-revised edition since 1962. The number of color photos was increased from 14,000 to 24,000; over 6,000 articles were revised; 840 new contributors were added. Charlie and I recommend this product to you and your family, as we do World Book's products for younger children, Childcraft and Early World of Learning.

1987 年,世界图书在美国的销量连续第五年增长,国际销售额和利润也大幅增长。斯科特-费泽整体前景看好,世界图书尤其如此。

In 1987, World Book unit sales in the United States increased for the fifth consecutive year. International sales and profits also grew substantially. The outlook is good for Scott Fetzer operations in aggregate, and for World Book in particular.

保险业务

Insurance Operations

下面是我们那张常用表格的更新版,列出了保险业的几项关键数据:

Shown below is an updated version of our usual table presenting key figures for the insurance industry:

年份保费收入年度变化 (%)支付保单持有人股利后的综合成本率已发生损失年度变化 (%)以 GNP 平减指数衡量的通胀率 (%)
19813.8106.06.59.6
19824.4109.88.46.4
19834.6112.06.83.8
19849.2117.916.93.7
198522.1116.316.13.2
1986 (修订)22.2108.013.52.6
1987 (估计)8.7104.76.83.0
                              Statutory
          Yearly Change    Combined Ratio    Yearly Change   Inflation Rate 
           in Premiums   After Policyholder   in Incurred     Measured by 
           Written (%)        Dividends        Losses (%)   GNP Deflator (%)
          -------------  ------------------  -------------  ----------------
1981 .....     3.8              106.0             6.5              9.6 
1982 .....     4.4              109.8             8.4              6.4 
1983 .....     4.6              112.0             6.8              3.8 
1984 .....     9.2              117.9            16.9              3.7 
1985 .....    22.1              116.3            16.1              3.2 
1986 (Rev.)   22.2              108.0            13.5              2.6 
1987 (Est.)    8.7              104.7             6.8              3.0

来源:贝氏保险管理报告

Source: Best's Insurance Management Reports

综合成本率,是保险总成本(已发生损失加各项费用)与保费收入之比:低于 100 表示承保盈利,高于 100 表示承保亏损。若把保险公司靠占用投保人资金(即“浮存金”)赚到的投资收益算进来,综合成本率落在 107 至 111 之间通常能整体打平,这还没算上股东资金带来的收益。

The combined ratio represents total insurance costs (losses incurred plus expenses) compared to revenue from premiums: A ratio below 100 indicates an underwriting profit, and one above 100 indicates a loss. When the investment income that an insurer earns from holding on to policyholders' funds ("the float") is taken into account, a combined ratio in the 107-111 range typically produces an overall break-even result, exclusive of earnings on the funds provided by shareholders.

这张表格所浓缩的保险生意,算术并不复杂。在行业年保费收入只能以 4% 或 5% 缓慢前行的年份,承保亏损必然攀升。这不因为车祸、火灾、暴风之类事故变得更频繁,近来也不能归咎于普遍通胀。今天,社会通胀和司法通胀才是罪魁祸首——打官司的成本简直吹气球一样膨胀。成本飙升,一部分来自判赔金额暴涨,一部分来自法官和陪审团倾向于把保单的赔付范围扩大到保险公司承保时根本未曾料及的程度。眼看这两股势头都没有松懈的迹象,我们仍然认为,行业保费收入必须每年增长约 10%,才能勉强守住盈利水平,即便普遍通胀率远低于此。

<<<END P 10>>>

The math of the insurance business, encapsulated by the table, is not very complicated. In years when the industry's annual gain in revenues (premiums) pokes along at 4% or 5%, underwriting losses are sure to mount. That is not because auto accidents, fires, windstorms and the like are occurring more frequently, nor has it lately been the fault of general inflation. Today, social and judicial inflation are the major culprits; the cost of entering a courtroom has simply ballooned. Part of the jump in cost arises from skyrocketing verdicts, and part from the tendency of judges and juries to expand the coverage of insurance policies beyond that contemplated by the insurer when the policies were written. Seeing no let-up in either trend, we continue to believe that the industry's revenues must grow at about 10% annually for it to just hold its own in terms of profitability, even though general inflation may be running at a considerably lower rate.

1985 至 1987 年保费的强劲增长,几乎注定了行业 1987 年会有出色的承保表现,事实也的确如此,那是丰收的一年。可好消息随着季度推移渐渐变味:贝氏估计,各季度保费同比增幅分别为 12.9%、11.1%、5.7% 和 5.6%。1988 年,保费增幅必定远低于我们所说的 10% 这一“均衡”水平。很清楚,派对散场了。

The strong revenue gains of 1985-87 almost guaranteed the industry an excellent underwriting performance in 1987 and, indeed, it was a banner year. But the news soured as the quarters rolled by: Best's estimates that year-over-year volume increases were 12.9%, 11.1%, 5.7%, and 5.6%. In 1988, the revenue gain is certain to be far below our 10% "equilibrium" figure. Clearly, the party is over.

不过盈利不会应声跳水。这个行业有个滞后效应:由于多数保单一年一签,保险价格的涨跌要过好几个月才会完全反映到盈利上。所以,接着用我们的比喻:派对结束、吧台打烊,手里那杯酒你还是可以喝完的。倘若没有重大自然灾害来搅局,我们预计 1988 年行业综合成本率会小幅上行,随后几年则会有更大的涨幅。

However, earnings will not immediately sink. A lag factor exists in this industry: Because most policies are written for a one-year term, higher or lower insurance prices do not have their full impact on earnings until many months after they go into effect. Thus, to resume our metaphor, when the party ends and the bar is closed, you are allowed to finish your drink. If results are not hurt by a major natural catastrophe, we predict a small climb for the industry's combined ratio in 1988, followed by several years of larger increases.

保险业天生带着一身糟糕的经济基因,长期前景因此黯淡:竞争者数以百计,进入门槛低,产品又无从作出任何实质性的区分。在这样一门近乎大宗商品的生意里,只有成本极低的经营者,或者守在受保护的、通常也很小的利基里的公司,才撑得起高盈利。

The insurance industry is cursed with a set of dismal economic characteristics that make for a poor long-term outlook: hundreds of competitors, ease of entry, and a product that cannot be differentiated in any meaningful way. In such a commodity- like business, only a very low-cost operator or someone operating in a protected, and usually small, niche can sustain high profitability levels.

不过,一旦出现供不应求,连大宗商品式的生意也会兴旺。保险业曾一度享受过这种气候,如今已成过往。资本主义有个讽刺之处:大宗商品行业里的经理人多半厌恶短缺——尽管唯有短缺才能让他们赚到像样的回报。每逢短缺出现,典型的经理人都恨不得立刻扩产,好把那个正往自己身上哗哗撒钱的窟窿堵上。1985 至 1987 年保险业经理人干的正是这件事,再一次印证了迪斯雷利那句话:“我们从历史中学到的,就是我们从不吸取历史教训。”

When shortages exist, however, even commodity businesses flourish. The insurance industry enjoyed that kind of climate for a while but it is now gone. One of the ironies of capitalism is that most managers in commodity industries abhor shortage conditions - even though those are the only circumstances permitting them good returns. Whenever shortages appear, the typical manager simply can't wait to expand capacity and thereby plug the hole through which money is showering upon him. This is precisely what insurance managers did in 1985-87, confirming again Disraeli's observation: "What we learn from history is that we do not learn from history."

在伯克希尔,我们靠两条路子力图摆脱这门行业的大宗商品经济。第一,我们以财务实力来区分自己的产品,这份实力在业内无出其右。只是,这份实力用处有限。在个人险领域它几乎不值一提:买车险或房主险的人,即便保险公司倒闭(这样的公司为数不少),理赔照样拿得到。在商业险领域它往往也无关紧要:行情好的时候,许多大企业投保方和他们的经纪人,压根不去理会保险公司在日后更不利的处境下(比方五年后某桩复杂理赔终于了结时)能否履约。(眼不见,心不烦——日后可能就要自掏腰包了。)

At Berkshire, we work to escape the industry's commodity economics in two ways. First, we differentiate our product by our financial strength, which exceeds that of all others in the industry. This strength, however, is limited in its usefulness. It means nothing in the personal insurance field: The buyer of an auto or homeowners policy is going to get his claim paid even if his insurer fails (as many have). It often means nothing in the commercial insurance arena: When times are good, many major corporate purchasers of insurance and their brokers pay scant attention to the insurer's ability to perform under the more adverse conditions that may exist, say, five years later when a complicated claim is finally resolved. (Out of sight, out of mind - and, later on, maybe out-of-pocket.)

然而,买家隔一阵子总会想起本·富兰克林那句观察——空口袋立不起来,进而意识到自己该只向那些财务实力经久不衰的保险公司购买承诺。到那时,我们便有了重大的竞争优势。当买家确实上心,掂量自家保险公司五年、十年后能否轻松兑付一笔 1000 万美元的理赔,又把承保环境恶化恰逢金融市场低迷、再保险公司违约这种可能一并考虑进去,他会发现值得托付的公司寥寥无几。而在这寥寥数家里,伯克希尔遥遥领先。

Periodically, however, buyers remember Ben Franklin's observation that it is hard for an empty sack to stand upright and recognize their need to buy promises only from insurers that have enduring financial strength. It is then that we have a major competitive advantage. When a buyer really focuses on whether a $10 million claim can be easily paid by his insurer five or ten years down the road, and when he takes into account the possibility that poor underwriting conditions may then coincide with depressed financial markets and defaults by reinsurer, he will find only a few companies he can trust. Among those, Berkshire will lead the pack.

我们区别于同行的第二个方法,是对业务量保持彻底的无所谓。1989 年,我们完全乐意承接 1988 年五倍的业务——或者只做五分之一。当然,我们希望市场条件允许我们放量。但我们无法左右市场价格。若价格不合意,我们干脆就少做业务。没有哪家大型保险公司会像我们这样克制行事。

Our second method of differentiating ourselves is the total indifference to volume that we maintain. In 1989, we will be perfectly willing to write five times as much business as we write in 1988 - or only one-fifth as much. We hope, of course, that conditions will allow us large volume. But we cannot control market prices. If they are unsatisfactory, we will simply do very little business. No other major insurer acts with equal restraint.

保险业有三个大多数行业不具备的特点,赋予了我们这份灵活。其一,市场份额并非盈利的重要决定因素:这一行与报纸业或杂货业不同,奉行的经济法则不是"最肥者生存"。其二,在保险业的许多领域,包括我们经营的大多数领域,分销渠道并非独家专有,进入容易:今年业务量小,不妨碍明年放量。其三,闲置产能——在这一行主要是指人员——不会带来难以承受的成本。我们可以在很长一段时间里以四分之一的速度运转,仍能享受长期的繁荣,这是印刷业或钢铁业等行业做不到的。

Three conditions that prevail in insurance, but not in most businesses, allow us our flexibility. First, market share is not an important determinant of profitability: In this business, in contrast to the newspaper or grocery businesses, the economic rule is not survival of the fattest. Second, in many sectors of insurance, including most of those in which we operate, distribution channels are not proprietary and can be easily entered: Small volume this year does not preclude huge volume next year. Third, idle capacity - which in this industry largely means people - does not result in intolerable costs. In a way that industries such as printing or steel cannot, we can operate at quarter-speed much of the time and still enjoy long-term prosperity.

我们奉行"按风险敞口定价,而非按竞争定价"的方针,因为这符合股东的利益。但我们也很高兴地告诉大家,这一方针同样有益于社会。它意味着,只要我们认为价格足够充分,我们随时可以承保几乎任何类型的巨额财产意外险。许多同行采取的是进进出出的做法:当他们"退出"时——原因可能是亏损累积、资本不足或其他——我们顶得上。当然,当别人争着抢业务时,我们也在场——只是在这类时期,我们的报价常常高于市场水平。实际上,我们为投保人和经纪人提供了一个庞大的备用产能蓄水池。

We follow a price-based-on-exposure, not-on-competition policy because it makes sense for our shareholders. But we're happy to report that it is also pro-social. This policy means that we are always available, given prices that we believe are adequate, to write huge volumes of almost any type of property- casualty insurance. Many other insurers follow an in-and-out approach. When they are "out" - because of mounting losses, capital inadequacy, or whatever - we are available. Of course, when others are panting to do business we are also available - but at such times we often find ourselves priced above the market. In effect, we supply insurance buyers and brokers with a large reservoir of standby capacity.

1987 年年中的一个故事,可以说明我们定价方针带来的某些后果:全美最大的家族保险经纪商之一,其掌门人是伯克希尔的一位长期股东。此人手中有不少大额风险,属于我们纽约办事处的潜在承保标的。他自然会为客户争取最好的条件;同样理所当然的是,当 1987 年保险市场急剧转软时,他发现别家保险公司的报价比我们愿意出的价更低。他的反应是:第一,把全部业务都给了别人;第二,买进更多伯克希尔的股票。他说,我们若真有价格竞争力,自然会拿到他的保险业务,但他也就不会去买我们的股票了。

One story from mid-1987 illustrates some consequences of our pricing policy: One of the largest family-owned insurance brokers in the country is headed by a fellow who has long been a shareholder of Berkshire. This man handles a number of large risks that are candidates for placement with our New York office. Naturally, he does the best he can for his clients. And, just as naturally, when the insurance market softened dramatically in 1987 he found prices at other insurers lower than we were willing to offer. His reaction was, first, to place all of his business elsewhere and, second, to buy more stock in Berkshire. Had we been really competitive, he said, we would have gotten his insurance business but he would not have bought our stock.

1987 年,伯克希尔的承保表现十分出色,部分原因是前面讨论过的滞后效应。我们的综合成本率(按法定口径,不含结构性和解与财务再保险)为 105。尽管这一比率比 1986 年的 103 稍差,但由于我们动用的浮存金远多于上年,1987 年的盈利仍实现了实质性改善。这一趋势还将继续朝着有利于我们的方向发展:未来几年,我们的浮存金对保费比率将大幅提升。因此,即使我们预计综合成本率会上升,伯克希尔的保险利润在 1988 和 1989 年仍很可能改善。

Berkshire's underwriting experience was excellent in 1987, in part because of the lag factor discussed earlier. Our combined ratio (on a statutory basis and excluding structured settlements and financial reinsurance) was 105. Although the ratio was somewhat less favorable than in 1986, when it was 103, our profitability improved materially in 1987 because we had the use of far more float. This trend will continue to run in our favor: Our ratio of float to premium volume will increase very significantly during the next few years. Thus, Berkshire's insurance profits are quite likely to improve during 1988 and 1989, even though we expect our combined ratio to rise.

过去几年,我们的保险业务还取得了一些重要的非财务收益。保险业务负责人迈克·戈德堡(Mike Goldberg)组建了一支才华横溢的专业团队,专门承保大额风险和非常规险种。他打造的这套班底,如今已完全有能力承接那些偶尔会为我们带来重大机遇的业务线。

Our insurance business has also made some important non- financial gains during the last few years. Mike Goldberg, its manager, has assembled a group of talented professionals to write larger risks and unusual coverages. His operation is now well equipped to handle the lines of business that will occasionally offer us major opportunities.

我们的损失准备金发展情况,详见第 41 至 42 页,今年比往年看起来更好。但我们承接了大量"长尾"业务——也就是理赔往往要历时多年才能了结的保单,例如产品责任险、董事及高管责任险。在这样一种业务结构下,单看一年的准备金发展情况,其实说明不了什么。

Our loss reserve development, detailed on pages 41-42, looks better this year than it has previously. But we write lots of "long-tail" business - that is, policies generating claims that often take many years to resolve. Examples would be product liability, or directors and officers liability coverages. With a business mix like this, one year of reserve development tells you very little.

你对任何保险公司报出的盈利数字,都应报以极大的怀疑(包括我们自己的数字——很遗憾,我们过去已向你证明过这一点)。过去十年的记录表明,众多我们最为知名的保险公司向股东报告的盈利,后来都被证明错得离谱。在大多数情况下,这些错误完全是出于无意:我们的法律体系难以预测,即使是最尽责的保险公司,也无从接近判断长尾理赔的最终成本。

You should be very suspicious of any earnings figures reported by insurers (including our own, as we have unfortunately proved to you in the past). The record of the last decade shows that a great many of our best-known insurers have reported earnings to shareholders that later proved to be wildly erroneous. In most cases, these errors were totally innocent: The unpredictability of our legal system makes it impossible for even the most conscientious insurer to come close to judging the eventual cost of long-tail claims.

尽管如此,审计师每年仍为管理层交给他们的数字出具证明,并在其意见中毫无保留地声称,这些数字"公允反映"了客户的财务状况。审计师使用这套令人宽慰的措辞,尽管漫长而痛苦的经验告诉他们,经他们如此背书的数字,极有可能与当期的真实盈利相去甚远。尽管有过这样的错误记录,投资者仍然依赖审计师的意见,这情有可原。毕竟,对非会计专业人士来说,"报表公允反映"这句话,听起来实在不像有什么模糊之处。

Nevertheless, auditors annually certify the numbers given them by management and in their opinions unqualifiedly state that these figures "present fairly" the financial position of their clients. The auditors use this reassuring language even though they know from long and painful experience that the numbers so certified are likely to differ dramatically from the true earnings of the period. Despite this history of error, investors understandably rely upon auditors' opinions. After all, a declaration saying that "the statements present fairly" hardly sounds equivocal to the non-accountant.

审计师标准意见函的措辞计划于明年修改。新措辞是个进步,但远不足以描述财产意外险审计的局限性。我们认为,若要如实反映真实情况,写给财产意外险公司股东的标准意见函,应当写成这样:"对于所示损失及损失理算费用负债,我们依赖的是管理层的陈述,而该等负债的估计值,又对本报告所载盈利和财务状况有极其重大的影响。对于这些数字的准确性,我们无法发表意见。在此重要保留之下,我们认为……"

The wording in the auditor's standard opinion letter is scheduled to change next year. The new language represents improvement, but falls far short of describing the limitations of a casualty-insurer audit. If it is to depict the true state of affairs, we believe the standard opinion letter to shareholders of a property-casualty company should read something like: "We have relied upon representations of management in respect to the liabilities shown for losses and loss adjustment expenses, the estimate of which, in turn, very materially affects the earnings and financial condition herein reported. We can express no opinion about the accuracy of these figures. Subject to that important reservation, in our opinion, etc."

倘若因严重失真的财务报表而引发诉讼(确有其事),审计师到了法庭上,反正也会说出类似的话来。既然如此,何不从一开头就坦率说明自己的角色及其局限?

If lawsuits develop in respect to wildly inaccurate financial statements (which they do), auditors will definitely say something of that sort in court anyway. Why should they not be forthright about their role and its limitations from the outset?

我们要强调,我们并非责怪审计师无法准确评估损失准备金(进而无法准确评估盈利)。我们责怪他们之处,仅在于不肯公开承认自己做不到这件事。

We want to emphasize that we are not faulting auditors for their inability to accurately assess loss reserves (and therefore earnings). We fault them only for failing to publicly acknowledge that they can't do this job.

从种种表面迹象来看,准备金提取中不断出现的无心之失,还伴随有一些蓄意为之的错误。形形色色的骗子正是利用了,其一,审计师无力评估准备金数字;其二,审计师明明没有这一专业能力,却愿意信心十足地为这些数字出具证明,仿佛他们真有这本事,从而以损害投资大众为代价中饱私囊。这类骗局我们今后还会见到。凡是"盈利"能凭大笔一挥凭空捏造的地方,不诚实的人就会围聚过来。对他们而言,长尾保险简直是天堂。我们建议的审计措辞,至少能让投资者对这些掠夺者有所警惕。

From all appearances, the innocent mistakes that are constantly made in reserving are accompanied by others that are deliberate. Various charlatans have enriched themselves at the expense of the investing public by exploiting, first, the inability of auditors to evaluate reserve figures and, second, the auditors' willingness to confidently certify those figures as if they had the expertise to do so. We will continue to see such chicanery in the future. Where "earnings" can be created by the stroke of a pen, the dishonest will gather. For them, long-tail insurance is heaven. The audit wording we suggest would at least serve to put investors on guard against these predators.

保险公司缴纳的税款——在 1986 年《税收改革法案》颁布后已实质增加,尽管是以递延的方式体现——于 1987 年底进一步恶化。我们在去年年报中详述了 1986 年的变化。我们还评论了这部法案的讽刺之处:它在显著提高了保险公司 1987 年报告盈利的同时,却大幅削弱了其长期盈利潜力和商业价值。在伯克希尔,那项暂时有利的"重新起算"调整,将 1987 年的盈利虚增了 820 万美元。

The taxes that insurance companies pay - which increased materially, though on a delayed basis, upon enactment of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 - took a further turn for the worse at the end of 1987. We detailed the 1986 changes in last year's report. We also commented on the irony of a statute that substantially increased 1987 reported earnings for insurers even as it materially reduced both their long-term earnings potential and their business value. At Berkshire, the temporarily-helpful "fresh start" adjustment inflated 1987 earnings by $8.2 million.

在我们看来,1986 年法案是过去十年间影响保险业最为重大的经济事件。1987 年的法案进一步将公司间股息抵免比例从 80% 降至 70%,自 1988 年 1 月 1 日起生效,除非纳税人持有被投资公司至少 20% 的股份。

In our opinion, the 1986 Act was the most important economic event affecting the insurance industry over the past decade. The 1987 Bill further reduced the intercorporate dividends-received credit from 80% to 70%, effective January 1, 1988, except for cases in which the taxpayer owns at least 20% of an investee.

通过合格投资公司以外的企业中介持有股票或债券的投资者,向来比直接持有相同证券的投资者处于不利地位。1986 年的税法大大加重了对这种间接持股的惩罚,1987 年的税法又进一步加重了惩罚(程度较前者为轻),在中介为保险公司时尤其如此。我们对这种加重的税负水平无计可施。它只意味着,同样一笔税前投资回报,如今落到我们股东手里的税后结果,要差得多。

Investors who have owned stocks or bonds through corporate intermediaries other than qualified investment companies have always been disadvantaged in comparison to those owning the same securities directly. The penalty applying to indirect ownership was greatly increased by the 1986 Tax Bill and, to a lesser extent, by the 1987 Bill, particularly in instances where the intermediary is an insurance company. We have no way of offsetting this increased level of taxation. It simply means that a given set of pre-tax investment returns will now translate into much poorer after-tax results for our shareholders.

总的说来,我们预计保险业务会做得不错,尽管战绩注定起起落落。眼前的前景是业务量大幅下降,但盈利会有合理改善。等我们与消防员基金保险公司的成数分保协议在 1989 年到期后,保费的下滑还会提速。到某个时点——很可能至少还要几年——我们或许会撞见一些重大机会,而对此我们如今的准备远比 1985 年充分。

All in all, we expect to do well in the insurance business, though our record is sure to be uneven. The immediate outlook is for substantially lower volume but reasonable earnings improvement. The decline in premium volume will accelerate after our quota-share agreement with Fireman's Fund expires in 1989. At some point, likely to be at least a few years away, we may see some major opportunities, for which we are now much better prepared than we were in 1985.

可流通证券——永久持股

Marketable Securities - Permanent Holdings

每当查理和我为伯克希尔旗下保险公司买入普通股时(套利买入除外,稍后再谈),我们都当作是在买下一家私营企业。我们看的是这门生意的经济前景、掌舵它的人,以及我们要付的价钱。至于何时卖、什么价卖,我们心里并无成算。事实上,只要预期这门生意的内在价值能以令人满意的速度增长,我们就愿意无限期地持有下去。投资时,我们把自己当作企业分析师——不是市场分析师,不是宏观经济分析师,甚至也不是证券分析师。

Whenever Charlie and I buy common stocks for Berkshire's insurance companies (leaving aside arbitrage purchases, discussed later) we approach the transaction as if we were buying into a private business. We look at the economic prospects of the business, the people in charge of running it, and the price we must pay. We do not have in mind any time or price for sale. Indeed, we are willing to hold a stock indefinitely so long as we expect the business to increase in intrinsic value at a satisfactory rate. When investing, we view ourselves as business analysts - not as market analysts, not as macroeconomic analysts, and not even as security analysts.

我们这套做法,让一个活跃的交易市场变得有用,因为它时不时递上叫人垂涎的机会。但它绝非必不可少:我们持有的证券即便长期停牌,也不会比世界图书或费希海默没有每日报价更让我们烦心。归根结底,我们的经济命运,取决于我们所拥有企业的经济命运,不论我们是部分持股还是全资拥有。

Our approach makes an active trading market useful, since it periodically presents us with mouth-watering opportunities. But by no means is it essential: a prolonged suspension of trading in the securities we hold would not bother us any more than does the lack of daily quotations on World Book or Fechheimer. Eventually, our economic fate will be determined by the economic fate of the business we own, whether our ownership is partial or total.

我的良师益友本·格雷厄姆很久以前就描述过一种对待市场波动的心态,我认为它最有助于投资成功。他说,你不妨把市场报价想象成一位名叫“市场先生”的人给的——他非常好说话,是你在一门私营生意里的合伙人。他每天必到,报出一个价钱,要么买下你的股份,要么把他的股份卖给你。

Ben Graham, my friend and teacher, long ago described the mental attitude toward market fluctuations that I believe to be most conducive to investment success. He said that you should imagine market quotations as coming from a remarkably accommodating fellow named Mr. Market who is your partner in a private business. Without fail, Mr. Market appears daily and names a price at which he will either buy your interest or sell you his.

哪怕你俩合伙的这门生意经济特征稳如磐石,市场先生的报价也绝不会稳。因为,可叹的是,这可怜的家伙有治不好的情绪毛病。有时他欢天喜地,眼里只有对生意有利的一面;这种心境下,他会报出高得离谱的买卖价,生怕你一把抢走他的股份,让他与眼看到手的收益失之交臂。另一些时候他又消沉沮丧,看到的只有生意和世道的重重麻烦;这种时候,他会报出低得可怜的价钱,因为他惟恐你把股份甩给他。

Even though the business that the two of you own may have economic characteristics that are stable, Mr. Market's quotations will be anything but. For, sad to say, the poor fellow has incurable emotional problems. At times he feels euphoric and can see only the favorable factors affecting the business. When in that mood, he names a very high buy-sell price because he fears that you will snap up his interest and rob him of imminent gains. At other times he is depressed and can see nothing but trouble ahead for both the business and the world. On these occasions he will name a very low price, since he is terrified that you will unload your interest on him.

市场先生还有一个惹人喜爱的特点:他不在乎被冷落。今天他的报价你不感兴趣,明天他又会带着新报价回来。做不做,全凭你。在这样的条件下,他越是躁郁反复无常,对你就越有利。

Mr. Market has another endearing characteristic: He doesn't mind being ignored. If his quotation is uninteresting to you today, he will be back with a new one tomorrow. Transactions are strictly at your option. Under these conditions, the more manic- depressive his behavior, the better for you.

不过,就像舞会上的灰姑娘,你得记牢一句告诫,否则一切都会变回南瓜和老鼠:市场先生是来伺候你的,不是来指点你的。有用的是他的钱包,不是他的见识。哪天他犯起糊涂来,你尽可以对他置之不理,也可以趁机占他便宜,但你要是被他牵着走,那就要栽大跟头了。说实在的,你若没把握自己远比市场先生更懂、更能给这门生意估价,那你根本就不该下场。就像牌桌上那句话:“打了 30 分钟你还没看出谁是冤大头,那冤大头就是你。”

But, like Cinderella at the ball, you must heed one warning or everything will turn into pumpkins and mice: Mr. Market is there to serve you, not to guide you. It is his pocketbook, not his wisdom, that you will find useful. If he shows up some day in a particularly foolish mood, you are free to either ignore him or to take advantage of him, but it will be disastrous if you fall under his influence. Indeed, if you aren't certain that you understand and can value your business far better than Mr. Market, you don't belong in the game. As they say in poker, "If you've been in the game 30 minutes and you don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy."

本这则“市场先生”的寓言,放到今天的投资世界里也许显得过时——如今大多数专业人士和学者张口闭口都是有效市场、动态对冲和贝塔系数。他们对这些东西感兴趣不难理解,因为把技巧裹上一层神秘,对兜售投资建议的人显然大有好处。毕竟,哪个巫医单靠一句“吃两片阿司匹林”就名利双收了?

Ben's Mr. Market allegory may seem out-of-date in today's investment world, in which most professionals and academicians talk of efficient markets, dynamic hedging and betas. Their interest in such matters is understandable, since techniques shrouded in mystery clearly have value to the purveyor of investment advice. After all, what witch doctor has ever achieved fame and fortune by simply advising "Take two aspirins"?

市场的这些玄学,对投资建议的消费者来说却是另一回事。依我看,投资的成功,不会来自晦涩的公式、计算机程序,或股票与市场价格闪出的信号;投资者要想成功,靠的是把良好的商业判断,同一种把自己的思想和行为,与市场上那些极易传染的情绪隔开的本事结合起来。为了让自己隔绝在外,我发现把本的“市场先生”这个概念牢记在心,实在受用无穷。

The value of market esoterica to the consumer of investment advice is a different story. In my opinion, investment success will not be produced by arcane formulae, computer programs or signals flashed by the price behavior of stocks and markets. Rather an investor will succeed by coupling good business judgment with an ability to insulate his thoughts and behavior from the super-contagious emotions that swirl about the marketplace. In my own efforts to stay insulated, I have found it highly useful to keep Ben's Mr. Market concept firmly in mind.

依着本的教导,查理和我让手里的可流通股票用经营业绩——而不是用每日甚至每年的报价——来告诉我们,投资是否成功。市场也许会一时无视一门生意的成功,但终究会予以确认。正如本所说:“短期看,市场是一台投票机;长期看,它是一台称重机。”再者,只要公司内在价值以令人满意的速度增长,成功被市场认可的快慢就没那么要紧。事实上,认可来得晚反而可能是好事:它也许给了我们机会,以便宜的价钱多买一些好东西。

Following Ben's teachings, Charlie and I let our marketable equities tell us by their operating results - not by their daily, or even yearly, price quotations - whether our investments are successful. The market may ignore business success for a while, but eventually will confirm it. As Ben said: "In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine." The speed at which a business's success is recognized, furthermore, is not that important as long as the company's intrinsic value is increasing at a satisfactory rate. In fact, delayed recognition can be an advantage: It may give us the chance to buy more of a good thing at a bargain price.

当然,市场有时也会把一门生意估得比其基本面所值更高。碰上这种情形,我们便会卖出持股。有时,我们也会卖掉一只估值合理、甚至偏低的证券,只因手头需要资金,去投一个更被低估、或我们自认更看得懂的标的。

Sometimes, of course, the market may judge a business to be more valuable than the underlying facts would indicate it is. In such a case, we will sell our holdings. Sometimes, also, we will sell a security that is fairly valued or even undervalued because we require funds for a still more undervalued investment or one we believe we understand better.

不过我们要强调,我们绝不会仅仅因为股票涨了、或持有久了就把它卖掉。(华尔街的种种格言里,最蠢的一句大概是“落袋为安绝不会亏。”)只要基础生意的预期股本回报令人满意、管理层既能干又诚实、市场又没高估它,任何一只证券我们都乐意无限期持有。

We need to emphasize, however, that we do not sell holdings just because they have appreciated or because we have held them for a long time. (Of Wall Street maxims the most foolish may be "You can't go broke taking a profit.") We are quite content to hold any security indefinitely, so long as the prospective return on equity capital of the underlying business is satisfactory, management is competent and honest, and the market does not overvalue the business.

只是,我们旗下保险公司持有三只可流通普通股,哪怕市场把它们炒得远远高估,我们也不会卖。实际上,我们看待这几项投资,与看待自己那些成功的控股企业别无二致——它们是伯克希尔永久的一部分,而不是一等市场先生出价够高就该脱手的货色。对此我要补一句限定:这几只股票由我们的保险公司持有,倘若万不得已,为支付非常规的保险损失,我们会卖掉一部分。不过我们打算这样安排事务,让卖出永远无需发生。

However, our insurance companies own three marketable common stocks that we would not sell even though they became far overpriced in the market. In effect, we view these investments exactly like our successful controlled businesses - a permanent part of Berkshire rather than merchandise to be disposed of once Mr. Market offers us a sufficiently high price. To that, I will add one qualifier: These stocks are held by our insurance companies and we would, if absolutely necessary, sell portions of our holdings to pay extraordinary insurance losses. We intend, however, to manage our affairs so that sales are never required.

这份“持有并长久持有”的决心,查理和我都有,其中显然掺杂着个人与财务两重考量。在有些人看来,我们的立场或许古怪得很。(查理和我一直奉行大卫·奥格威的忠告:“趁年轻把你的怪癖养起来。这样等你老了,人家就不会以为你是老糊涂了。”)当然,在近年这个一切以交易为轴心的华尔街,我们的姿态想必显得别扭:在那个圈子里的许多人眼中,公司也好、股票也罢,都不过是拿来交易的原料。

A determination to have and to hold, which Charlie and I share, obviously involves a mixture of personal and financial considerations. To some, our stand may seem highly eccentric. (Charlie and I have long followed David Oglivy's advice: "Develop your eccentricities while you are young. That way, when you get old, people won't think you're going ga-ga.") Certainly, in the transaction-fixated Wall Street of recent years, our posture must seem odd: To many in that arena, both companies and stocks are seen only as raw material for trades.

然而,我们的态度契合我们的性情,也契合我们想过的日子。丘吉尔说过:“先是你塑造你的房子,然后房子塑造你。”我们清楚自己想被塑造成什么样。正因如此,我们宁愿在赚到 X 回报的同时,与自己由衷喜欢和敬重的人为伍,也不愿拿这些情谊去换一群无趣或讨厌的伙伴,好换来 110% 的 X。而下面这三家公司——我们的永久持股——里的一些核心人物,是我们再也找不出比之更喜欢、更敬重的了:

Our attitude, however, fits our personalities and the way we want to live our lives. Churchill once said, "You shape your houses and then they shape you." We know the manner in which we wish to be shaped. For that reason, we would rather achieve a return of X while associating with people whom we strongly like and admire than realize 110% of X by exchanging these relationships for uninteresting or unpleasant ones. And we will never find people we like and admire more than some of the main participants at the three companies - our permanent holdings - shown below:

持股数量                                          成本        市值
-------------                                       ----------  ----------
                                                        (千美元计)
  3,000,000    大都会/美国广播公司    $517,500   $1,035,000
  6,850,000    GEICO 公司      45,713      756,925
  1,727,765    《华盛顿邮报》公司       9,731      323,092
No. of Shares                                          Cost       Market
-------------                                       ----------  ----------
                                                        (000s omitted) 
  3,000,000    Capital Cities/ABC, Inc. ...........  $517,500   $1,035,000 
  6,850,000    GEICO Corporation ..................    45,713      756,925 
  1,727,765    The Washington Post Company ........     9,731      323,092

买下一家控股企业,与买入上面这类可流通持股,我们实在看不出有多少根本区别。两种情形下,我们都力图买进长期经济前景良好的生意。我们的目标,是以合理的价钱买一家出色的企业,而不是以便宜的价钱买一家平庸的企业。查理和我发现,我们至多能拿丝绸做成丝钱包;拿母猪耳朵,我们只会失手。

We really don't see many fundamental differences between the purchase of a controlled business and the purchase of marketable holdings such as these. In each case we try to buy into businesses with favorable long-term economics. Our goal is to find an outstanding business at a sensible price, not a mediocre business at a bargain price. Charlie and I have found that making silk purses out of silk is the best that we can do; with sow's ears, we fail.

(必须说明,你们的董事长向来学得快,可这一回也足足花了 20 年,才悟出买好企业有多要紧。那些年里,我一心找“便宜货”——还倒霉地真找着了几个。我为此受的罚,是被迫上了一堂课,领教了短线农具厂、三流百货店和新英格兰纺织厂的经济学。)

(It must be noted that your Chairman, always a quick study, required only 20 years to recognize how important it was to buy good businesses. In the interim, I searched for "bargains" - and had the misfortune to find some. My punishment was an education in the economics of short-line farm implement manufacturers, third-place department stores, and New England textile manufacturers.)

当然,查理和我也可能看走眼,误判一门生意的根本经济。一旦如此,无论那是全资子公司还是可流通证券,我们都会遇上麻烦,只不过后者通常要好脱身得多。(生意确实会被人看走眼:有位欧洲记者被派来美国给安德鲁·卡内基写特写,事后给编辑发电报说:“我的天,你绝对想不到,办图书馆竟能赚这么多钱。”)

Of course, Charlie and I may misread the fundamental economics of a business. When that happens, we will encounter problems whether that business is a wholly-owned subsidiary or a marketable security, although it is usually far easier to exit from the latter. (Indeed, businesses can be misread: Witness the European reporter who, after being sent to this country to profile Andrew Carnegie, cabled his editor, "My God, you'll never believe the sort of money there is in running libraries.")

无论是收购控股还是买入股票,我们都力求买的不只是好生意,还得是由品性高洁、才干出众又讨人喜欢的经理人经营的生意。倘若我们看错了要携手的人,控股企业倒有个好处:我们有权力去推动变革。可实际上这个好处多少有点虚:换管理层,跟换婚姻一样,痛苦、费时又没准。无论如何,在我们那三只可流通却又永久的持股上,这一点根本无需操心:大都会/美国广播公司有汤姆·墨菲和丹·伯克,GEICO 有比尔·斯奈德和卢·辛普森,《华盛顿邮报》有凯·格雷厄姆和迪克·西蒙斯——我们再没法托付给更放心的人了。

In making both control purchases and stock purchases, we try to buy not only good businesses, but ones run by high-grade, talented and likeable managers. If we make a mistake about the managers we link up with, the controlled company offers a certain advantage because we have the power to effect change. In practice, however, this advantage is somewhat illusory: Management changes, like marital changes, are painful, time- consuming and chancy. In any event, at our three marketable-but permanent holdings, this point is moot: With Tom Murphy and Dan Burke at Cap Cities, Bill Snyder and Lou Simpson at GEICO, and Kay Graham and Dick Simmons at The Washington Post, we simply couldn't be in better hands.

我想说,控股企业有两大好处。其一,控股一家公司,资本由我们来配置;而对可流通持股,这件事上我们多半插不上嘴,甚至完全说不上话。这一点之所以要紧,是因为许多公司的掌门人并不擅长资本配置。他们的欠缺并不奇怪——大多数老板登上高位,靠的是在营销、生产、工程、行政,有时甚至是机构内部的政治中出类拔萃。

I would say that the controlled company offers two main advantages. First, when we control a company we get to allocate capital, whereas we are likely to have little or nothing to say about this process with marketable holdings. This point can be important because the heads of many companies are not skilled in capital allocation. Their inadequacy is not surprising. Most bosses rise to the top because they have excelled in an area such as marketing, production, engineering, administration or, sometimes, institutional politics.

一朝当上首席执行官,他们就得担起新的职责:做资本配置的决定。这是一件要紧的活儿,他们过去也许从未碰过,也不易上手。说句夸张的:这好比一位才华横溢的音乐家,最后一步不是登上卡内基音乐厅,而是被任命为美联储主席。

Once they become CEOs, they face new responsibilities. They now must make capital allocation decisions, a critical job that they may have never tackled and that is not easily mastered. To stretch the point, it's as if the final step for a highly- talented musician was not to perform at Carnegie Hall but, instead, to be named Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

许多首席执行官不擅长资本配置,这可不是小事:一位在任十年的首席执行官,若其公司每年留存的收益相当于净资产的 10%,那么公司里运转着的全部资本,有 60% 以上都是经他之手投放出去的。

The lack of skill that many CEOs have at capital allocation is no small matter: After ten years on the job, a CEO whose company annually retains earnings equal to 10% of net worth will have been responsible for the deployment of more than 60% of all the capital at work in the business.

那些意识到自己不擅长资本配置的首席执行官(并非人人都能意识到),常会转而求助于下属、管理顾问或投资银行家。这类“援手”的结果,查理和我见得多了。总的来说,我们觉得它更可能加剧资本配置的难题,而不是化解它。

CEOs who recognize their lack of capital-allocation skills (which not all do) will often try to compensate by turning to their staffs, management consultants, or investment bankers. Charlie and I have frequently observed the consequences of such "help." On balance, we feel it is more likely to accentuate the capital-allocation problem than to solve it.

到头来,美国企业界的资本配置里,愚蠢之举比比皆是。(这正是你为何总听到“重组”一说。)伯克希尔却一直很走运:在我们那些主要的非控股公司里,资本大体上都用得其所,有几家甚至用得漂亮至极。

In the end, plenty of unintelligent capital allocation takes place in corporate America. (That's why you hear so much about "restructuring.") Berkshire, however, has been fortunate. At the companies that are our major non-controlled holdings, capital has generally been well-deployed and, in some cases, brilliantly so.

控股企业相较可流通证券的第二个好处,与税收有关。伯克希尔作为企业股东,持有少数股权时要承担一些不小的税负;而持股达到 80% 或以上时,就不必承担这些税。这种税收上的吃亏由来已久,只是税法的变动让它去年显著加重。结果是:同一笔经营成果,若来自持股 80% 或以上的企业,给伯克希尔带来的财务结果,可以比来自持股较低的企业好上多达 50%。

The second advantage of a controlled company over a marketable security has to do with taxes. Berkshire, as a corporate holder, absorbs some significant tax costs through the ownership of partial positions that we do not when our ownership is 80%, or greater. Such tax disadvantages have long been with us, but changes in the tax code caused them to increase significantly during the past year. As a consequence, a given business result can now deliver Berkshire financial results that are as much as 50% better if they come from an 80%-or-greater holding rather than from a lesser holding.

持有可流通证券的种种不利,有时会被一个天大的好处抵消:股票市场偶尔会让我们有机会,以低得荒唐的价钱——远低于协议转让控制权时的要价——买下几家非凡企业的非控股股份。举例来说,我们 1973 年以每股 5.63 美元买入《华盛顿邮报》,而它 1987 年的每股税后经营利润是 10.30 美元;同样,我们在 1976、1979 和 1980 年以平均每股 6.67 美元买入 GEICO,去年它的每股税后经营利润是 9.01 美元。这类时候,市场先生着实是位极好的朋友。

The disadvantages of owning marketable securities are sometimes offset by a huge advantage: Occasionally the stock market offers us the chance to buy non-controlling pieces of extraordinary businesses at truly ridiculous prices - dramatically below those commanded in negotiated transactions that transfer control. For example, we purchased our Washington Post stock in 1973 at $5.63 per share, and per-share operating earnings in 1987 after taxes were $10.30. Similarly, Our GEICO stock was purchased in 1976, 1979 and 1980 at an average of $6.67 per share, and after-tax operating earnings per share last year were $9.01. In cases such as these, Mr. Market has proven to be a mighty good friend.

把我们控股公司报出的财务结果,与上面那几家永久少数持股相比,会撞见一处有趣的会计悖论。你可以看到,这三只股票的市值超过 20 亿美元,可 1987 年它们给伯克希尔贡献的报告税后收益,却只有 1100 万美元。

An interesting accounting irony overlays a comparison of the reported financial results of our controlled companies with those of the permanent minority holdings listed above. As you can see, those three stocks have a market value of over $2 billion. Yet they produced only $11 million in reported after-tax earnings for Berkshire in 1987.

按会计准则,我们只能把这些公司付给我们的股息计入收益——那点股息几近象征性——而不能计入我们应占的那份收益,后者 1987 年远超 1 亿美元。另一方面,会计准则又规定,这三笔由保险公司持有的持股,其记账价值必须按当前市价列入资产负债表。结果便是:GAAP 会计允许我们在净资产里体现这些部分持有企业的最新价值,却不许我们在收益账里体现它们的实际盈利。

Accounting rules dictate that we take into income only the dividends these companies pay us - which are little more than nominal - rather than our share of their earnings, which in 1987 amounted to well over $100 million. On the other hand, accounting rules provide that the carrying value of these three holdings - owned, as they are, by insurance companies - must be recorded on our balance sheet at current market prices. The result: GAAP accounting lets us reflect in our net worth the up- to-date underlying values of the businesses we partially own, but does not let us reflect their underlying earnings in our income account.

轮到我们的控股企业,情形恰好反过来:我们在收益账里如数体现全部盈利,却从不改动资产负债表上的资产价值,哪怕一门生意的价值自买入以来涨了多少。

In the case of our controlled companies, just the opposite is true. Here, we show full earnings in our income account but never change asset values on our balance sheet, no matter how much the value of a business might have increased since we purchased it.

面对这套会计上的精神分裂,我们的应对之道是干脆撇开 GAAP 数字,一门心思盯住控股与非控股企业未来的盈利能力。循着这条路,我们对商业价值自有一套判断,既不受账上控股公司会计价值的左右,也不受那个时常犯傻的市场给我们部分持有企业所定价格的影响。正是这份商业价值,我们盼着在未来的岁月里,以合理(最好是高得不合理)的速度把它做大。

Our mental approach to this accounting schizophrenia is to ignore GAAP figures and to focus solely on the future earning power of both our controlled and non-controlled businesses. Using this approach, we establish our own ideas of business value, keeping these independent from both the accounting values shown on our books for controlled companies and the values placed by a sometimes foolish market on our partially-owned companies. It is this business value that we hope to increase at a reasonable (or, preferably, unreasonable) rate in the years ahead.

可流通证券——其他

Marketable Securities - Other

除了三项永久持有的普通股,我们旗下保险公司还持有大量可流通证券。挑选这些标的时,我们有五大类可选:(1)长期普通股投资,(2)中期固定收益证券,(3)长期固定收益证券,(4)短期现金等价物,(5)短期套利头寸。

In addition to our three permanent common stock holdings, we hold large quantities of marketable securities in our insurance companies. In selecting these, we can choose among five major categories: (1) long-term common stock investments, (2) medium- term fixed-income securities, (3) long-term fixed income securities, (4) short-term cash equivalents, and (5) short-term arbitrage commitments.

在这几类之间,我们并无特别偏好,只是不断从中搜寻按“数学期望”衡量税后回报最高的机会,且始终把自己限定在自认为能够理解的选项之内。我们的标准与当下能报出多少盈利毫不相干;我们的目标,是把最终的净资产做到最大。

We have no particular bias when it comes to choosing from these categories. We just continuously search among them for the highest after-tax returns as measured by "mathematical expectation," limiting ourselves always to investment alternatives we think we understand. Our criteria have nothing to do with maximizing immediately reportable earnings; our goal, rather, is to maximize eventual net worth.

先来看普通股。1987 年的股市热闹非凡,净涨跌却微乎其微:道琼斯指数全年上涨 2.3%。这点微小变化,是坐了一趟过山车才折腾出来的,你想必心知肚明。市场先生一路狂躁亢奋,直到 10 月,才骤然来了一次大发作。

o Let's look first at common stocks. During 1987 the stock market was an area of much excitement but little net movement: The Dow advanced 2.3% for the year. You are aware, of course, of the roller coaster ride that produced this minor change. Mr. Market was on a manic rampage until October and then experienced a sudden, massive seizure.

这场动荡,绝大部分要“归功于”那些“专业”投资者——那些掌管着数十亿资金的人。许多声名显赫的基金经理,如今盯的不是企业未来几年会怎样,而是别的基金经理未来几天会怎么做。在他们眼里,股票不过是游戏里的筹码,就像大富翁棋盘上的顶针和熨斗。

We have "professional" investors, those who manage many billions, to thank for most of this turmoil. Instead of focusing on what businesses will do in the years ahead, many prestigious money managers now focus on what they expect other money managers to do in the days ahead. For them, stocks are merely tokens in a game, like the thimble and flatiron in Monopoly.

他们这种心态推向极致的一个例子,便是“投资组合保险”——1986 至 1987 年被众多顶尖投资顾问奉行的一种资金管理策略。这套策略——无非是给小散户的止损单换了个徒有其表的名字——规定:价格越跌,就越得卖出越来越大比例的股票组合,或其等值的股指期货。策略认定别的都无所谓:跌幅一到某个刻度,便自动触发巨额卖单。据布雷迪报告,1987 年 10 月中旬,有 600 亿到 900 亿美元的股票,就这样悬在一触即发的扳机上。

An extreme example of what their attitude leads to is "portfolio insurance," a money-management strategy that many leading investment advisors embraced in 1986-1987. This strategy - which is simply an exotically-labeled version of the small speculator's stop-loss order dictates that ever increasing portions of a stock portfolio, or their index-future equivalents, be sold as prices decline. The strategy says nothing else matters: A downtick of a given magnitude automatically produces a huge sell order. According to the Brady Report, $60 billion to $90 billion of equities were poised on this hair trigger in mid- October of 1987.

倘若你原以为投资顾问受雇是来投资的,这套手法多半会让你摸不着头脑。买下一座农场之后,一个理性的主人会转头吩咐地产经纪人:每当邻家地块以更低价成交,就卖掉自家农场的一块吗?又或者,仅仅因为 9 点 30 分有一栋差不多的房子以低于前一天行情的价钱卖掉了,你就会在 9 点 31 分把自家房子甩给随便哪个出价的人?

If you've thought that investment advisors were hired to invest, you may be bewildered by this technique. After buying a farm, would a rational owner next order his real estate agent to start selling off pieces of it whenever a neighboring property was sold at a lower price? Or would you sell your house to whatever bidder was available at 9:31 on some morning merely because at 9:30 a similar house sold for less than it would have brought on the previous day?

然而,当养老金或大学持有福特、通用电气这类企业的一部分时,投资组合保险要它们做的,恰恰是此类动作。这套策略认定:这些公司被估得越低,就越该起劲地卖。作为一条“合乎逻辑”的推论,它还命令这些机构,等这些公司股价大幅反弹后再买回来——我可没瞎编。想想看,如此巨额的资金,正握在一群奉行这种爱丽丝梦游仙境式做派的经理手里,市场偶尔行为失常,又有什么可奇怪的呢?

Moves like that, however, are what portfolio insurance tells a pension fund or university to make when it owns a portion of enterprises such as Ford or General Electric. The less these companies are being valued at, says this approach, the more vigorously they should be sold. As a "logical" corollary, the approach commands the institutions to repurchase these companies - I'm not making this up - once their prices have rebounded significantly. Considering that huge sums are controlled by managers following such Alice-in-Wonderland practices, is it any surprise that markets sometimes behave in aberrational fashion?

不过,许多评论者看了近来这些事,却得出了一个错误的结论:他们爱说,如今这个由大玩家反复无常的行为主导的市场,小投资者已毫无胜算。这个结论大错特错:只要投资者守住自己的本分,无论大小,这样的市场对他都再理想不过。那些用巨资胡乱投机的基金经理所制造的波动,只会给名副其实的投资者送上更多做出明智投资的机会。他唯一可能被这种波动所伤的,是在财务或心理压力逼迫下,在不该抛的时候被迫抛售。

Many commentators, however, have drawn an incorrect conclusion upon observing recent events: They are fond of saying that the small investor has no chance in a market now dominated by the erratic behavior of the big boys. This conclusion is dead wrong: Such markets are ideal for any investor - small or large - so long as he sticks to his investment knitting. Volatility caused by money managers who speculate irrationally with huge sums will offer the true investor more chances to make intelligent investment moves. He can be hurt by such volatility only if he is forced, by either financial or psychological pressures, to sell at untoward times.

在伯克希尔,过去几年我们在股票上几乎无事可做。在 10 月那波大跌中,有几只股票跌到了让我们动心的价位,可还没来得及像样地买进,它们就反弹了。1987 年底,除了我们视作永久持有或套利的持股,我们并无任何重大的普通股投资(即超过 5000 万美元的)。不过,市场先生会给我们机会的——这一点你尽管放心——等市场先生真给机会时,我们既愿意也有能力接住。

At Berkshire, we have found little to do in stocks during the past few years. During the break in October, a few stocks fell to prices that interested us, but we were unable to make meaningful purchases before they rebounded. At yearend 1987 we had no major common stock investments (that is, over $50 million) other than those we consider permanent or arbitrage holdings. However, Mr. Market will offer us opportunities - you can be sure of that - and, when he does, we will be willing and able to participate.

眼下,我们停放资金的主要去处是中期免税债券,它有限的几点好处,我在去年年报里说过。1987 年我们既买了些也卖了些,但整体头寸变化不大,维持在 9 亿美元上下。我们持有的债券里,很大一部分依 1986 年《税收改革法案》享有“老人条款”待遇,也就是完全免税;如今保险公司新买的债券则不是这样。

o In the meantime, our major parking place for money is medium-term tax-exempt bonds, whose limited virtues I explained in last year's annual report. Though we both bought and sold some of these bonds in 1987, our position changed little overall, holding around $900 million. A large portion of our bonds are "grandfathered" under the Tax Reform Act of 1986, which means they are fully tax-exempt. Bonds currently purchased by insurance companies are not.

作为短期现金等价物的替代,我们这些中期免税债券迄今表现不俗:它们给我们带来了可观的额外收入,眼下市值也略高于成本。无论市价如何,一旦有更好的机会出现,我们随时准备将其出手。

As an alternative to short-term cash equivalents, our medium-term tax-exempts have - so far served us well. They have produced substantial extra income for us and are currently worth a bit above our cost. Regardless of their market price, we are ready to dispose of our bonds whenever something better comes along.

我们对长期债券始终心存排斥(也许连中期债券都不一并排斥,是个严重的错误)。债券再好,也好不过它所计价的那种货币;而过去一年——乃至过去十年——我们所见的一切,都无法让我们对美元的长期前景生出半点热情。

o We continue to have an aversion to long-term bonds (and may be making a serious mistake by not disliking medium-term bonds as well). Bonds are no better than the currency in which they are denominated, and nothing we have seen in the past year - or past decade - makes us enthusiastic about the long-term future of U.S. currency.

我们那庞大的贸易逆差,正让形形色色的“提货单”——美国国债、公司债、银行存款等等——以令人心惊的速度堆积到外国人手里。我们的政府实际上采取了一种理财路数,活脱脱是《欲望号街车》里的布兰奇·杜波依斯:她说,“我一向仰仗陌生人的善意。”当然,此处的“陌生人”仰仗的,是我们这些提货单的信用;只是美元的暴跌,早已让这份仰仗变得代价不菲。

Our enormous trade deficit is causing various forms of "claim checks" - U.S. government and corporate bonds, bank deposits, etc. - to pile up in the hands of foreigners at a distressing rate. By default, our government has adopted an approach to its finances patterned on that of Blanche DuBois, of A Streetcar Named Desire, who said, "I have always depended on the kindness of strangers." In this case, of course, the "strangers" are relying on the integrity of our claim checks although the plunging dollar has already made that proposition expensive for them.

外国人寄予我们的这份信任,或许所托非人。当在外流通的提货单多到一定程度,而开单方又能单方面决定它们的购买力时,开单方靠通胀来稀释其价值的诱惑,便几乎无法抵挡。对债务国政府而言,通胀这件武器,在经济上不啻一颗“氢弹”,这也正是为什么,极少有哪个国家被允许用本国货币计价的债务淹没世界。我们过去在财政操守上相对良好的记录,让我们得以破了这条规矩;可这份被赋予的宽容,日后多半会加剧、而非缓解逼我们走向通胀的压力。倘若我们真屈从于这份压力,受伤的就不只是持有我们提货单的外国人,而是我们所有人。

The faith that foreigners are placing in us may be misfounded. When the claim checks outstanding grow sufficiently numerous and when the issuing party can unilaterally determine their purchasing power, the pressure on the issuer to dilute their value by inflating the currency becomes almost irresistible. For the debtor government, the weapon of inflation is the economic equivalent of the "H" bomb, and that is why very few countries have been allowed to swamp the world with debt denominated in their own currency. Our past, relatively good record for fiscal integrity has let us break this rule, but the generosity accorded us is likely to intensify, rather than relieve, the eventual pressure on us to inflate. If we do succumb to that pressure, it won't be just the foreign holders of our claim checks who will suffer. It will be all of us as well.

当然,美国也可能在净债务国处境失控之前,就出手遏制贸易逆差。(就这一点而言,美元下跌会有帮助,只可惜它在别的方面又会造成伤害。)然而,在这场检验决心的考验里,政府的表现多半会和它一贯的斯嘉丽·奥哈拉式作风一个样:“这事我明天再想。”而几乎不可避免的是,在财政难题面前一味拖延,终将招来通胀的后果。

Of course, the U.S. may take steps to stem our trade deficit well before our position as a net debtor gets out of hand. (In that respect, the falling dollar will help, though unfortunately it will hurt in other ways.) Nevertheless, our government's behavior in this test of its mettle is apt to be consistent with its Scarlett O'Hara approach generally: "I'll think about it tomorrow." And, almost inevitably, procrastination in facing up to fiscal problems will have inflationary consequences.

这些后果何时降临、波及多广,都无从预料。但我们无法量化风险、无法判断时点,并不意味著就可以对它视而不见。我们固然承认自己可能看错,也承认眼下的利率或许已足够补偿通胀风险,但对长期债券,我们总归心存戒惧。

Both the timing and the sweep of those consequences are unpredictable. But our inability to quantify or time the risk does not mean we should ignore it. While recognizing the possibility that we may be wrong and that present interest rates may adequately compensate for the inflationary risk, we retain a general fear of long-term bonds.

不过,如果我们判断自己在某只具体证券上占有明显优势,也愿意把适度比例的资金投进这一类。正是这份意愿,解释了我们为何持有华盛顿公共电力供应系统(Washington Public Power Supply Systems)1 号、2 号和 3 号债券——这在 1984 年年报里谈过。1987 年我们又增持了这些 WPPSS 债券。到年底,我们持有的这批债券摊余成本为 2.4 亿美元,市值 3.16 亿美元,每年为我们带来 3400 万美元的免税收入。

We are, however, willing to invest a moderate portion of our funds in this category if we think we have a significant edge in a specific security. That willingness explains our holdings of the Washington Public Power Supply Systems #1, #2 and #3 issues, discussed in our 1984 report. We added to our WPPSS position during 1987. At yearend, we had holdings with an amortized cost of $240 million and a market value of $316 million, paying us tax-exempt income of $34 million annually.

去年我们的套利依旧做得不错,尽管——或者说也许正因为——我们操作的规模非常有限。我们每年只涉足少数几笔套利,且只做那些已公开宣布的大额交易。对于绿票讹诈者试图把目标公司“架上牌桌”的那类局面,我们概不参与。

o We continued to do well in arbitrage last year, though - or perhaps because - we operated on a very limited scale. We enter into only a few arbitrage commitments each year and restrict ourselves to large transactions that have been publicly announced. We do not participate in situations in which green- mailers are attempting to put a target company "in play."

几十年来,我们一直见机行事地做套利,迄今成绩相当好。虽然从未精确算过,但我相信整体而言,我们从套利中拿到的年均税前回报至少有 25%,1987 年我敢说做得更好。不过必须强调:一两次相当糟糕的经历——比如 1987 年底不少套利操作所遭遇的那种——足以让这组数字面目全非。

We have practiced arbitrage on an opportunistic basis for decades and, to date, our results have been quite good. Though we've never made an exact calculation, I believe that overall we have averaged annual pre-tax returns of at least 25% from arbitrage. I'm quite sure we did better than that in 1987. But it should be emphasized that a really bad experience or two - such as many arbitrage operations suffered in late 1987 - could change the figures dramatically.

到 1987 年底,我们唯一一笔超过 5000 万美元的套利头寸,是 1,096,200 股 Allegis,成本 7600 万美元,市值 7800 万美元。

Our only $50 million-plus arbitrage position at yearend 1987 was 1,096,200 shares of Allegis, with a cost of $76 million and a market value of $78 million.

去年底,我们还有两笔大额持仓,无法妥帖地归入上述五类中的任何一类。其一是德士古公司(Texaco, Inc.)若干短期债券,全是在它申请破产之后买进的。要不是我们保险公司的资本实力格外雄厚,我们本不该去买违约债券;可在德士古破产申请之后的价位上,我们认为这些债券是当时对我们最具吸引力的债券投资。

o We had two other large holdings at yearend that do not fit precisely into any of our five categories. One was various Texaco, Inc. bonds with short maturities, all purchased after Texaco went into bankruptcy. Were it not for the extraordinarily strong capital position of our insurance companies, it would be inappropriate for us to buy defaulted bonds. At prices prevailing after Texaco's bankruptcy filing, however, we regarded these issues as by far the most attractive bond investment available to us.

以宾佐尔(Pennzoil)诉讼最坏的结局来算,我们判断这些债券的价值大致仍抵得上我们的买价;而若有一个合情合理的和解——这看来颇有可能——我们预计它们会值得多得多。到年底,我们这批德士古债券账面价值 1.04 亿美元,市值 1.19 亿美元。

On a worst-case basis with respect to the Pennzoil litigation, we felt the bonds were likely to be worth about what we paid for them. Given a sensible settlement, which seemed likely, we expected the bonds to be worth considerably more. At yearend our Texaco bonds were carried on our books at $104 million and had a market value of $119 million.

1987 年我们最大、也最受关注的一笔投资,是斥资 7 亿美元买下所罗门公司 (Salomon Inc) 9% 的优先股。这批优先股三年后可按每股 38 美元转换为所罗门普通股;若不转换,则自 1995 年 10 月 31 日起,分五年按比例赎回。从多数角度看,这笔投资归入中期固定收益证券一类;此外,我们还多了一个有意思的转换选择权。

By far our largest - and most publicized - investment in 1987 was a $700 million purchase of Salomon Inc 9% preferred stock. This preferred is convertible after three years into Salomon common stock at $38 per share and, if not converted, will be redeemed ratably over five years beginning October 31, 1995. From most standpoints, this commitment fits into the medium-term fixed-income securities category. In addition, we have an interesting conversion possibility.

当然,对投资银行业的走向或未来盈利,我们并无什么独到的洞见。就其本性而言,这个行业的经济比我们重仓投入的多数别的行业都难预料得多。正是这份难以预料,成了我们选择以可转换优先股形式参与的缘由之一。

We, of course, have no special insights regarding the direction or future profitability of investment banking. By their nature, the economics of this industry are far less predictable than those of most other industries in which we have major Commitments. This unpredictability is one of the reasons why our participation is in the form of a convertible preferred.

我们笃信的,是所罗门公司首席执行官约翰·古特弗罗因德(John Gutfreund)的才干与操守。查理和我喜欢、敬佩也信任约翰。我们初识于 1976 年,当时他在 GEICO 死里逃生的过程中出了大力。此后我们又几次目睹,约翰劝客户放弃一些不明智、客户却分明想做的交易——哪怕他的这番忠告分文进不了所罗门的口袋,而顺水推舟本可换来一笔可观的费用。这种把服务置于己利之上的做派,在华尔街绝非家常便饭。

What we do have a strong feeling about is the ability and integrity of John Gutfreund, CEO of Salomon Inc. Charlie and I like, admire and trust John. We first got to know him in 1976 when he played a key role in GEICO's escape from near-bankruptcy. Several times since, we have seen John steer clients away from transactions that would have been unwise, but that the client clearly wanted to make - even though his advice provided no fee to Salomon and acquiescence would have delivered a large fee. Such service-above-self behavior is far from automatic in Wall Street.

出于查理在第 50 页所陈的理由,年底时我们把对所罗门的投资估作面值的 98%,比成本低 1400 万美元。不过我们相信,一家领先的、高品质的融资兼做市机构,很有希望取得不错的平均股本回报。果真如此,我们那份转换权终将证明是值钱的。

For the reasons Charlie outlines on page 50, at yearend we valued our Salomon investment at 98% of par, $14 million less than our cost. However, we believe there is a reasonable likelihood that a leading, high-quality capital-raising and market-making operation can average good returns on equity. If so, our conversion right will eventually prove to be valuable.

关于我们在可流通证券上的投资,还有两句话该补。其一,照例给各位提个醒:我们的持仓自年底以来已有变动,往后还会继续变,恕不另行通告。

Two further comments about our investments in marketable securities are appropriate. First, we give you our usual warning: Our holdings have changed since yearend and will continue to do so without notice.

其二与此相关:1987 年一如以往几年,媒体不时冒出关于我们买卖各种证券的猜测。这些报道有的属实,有的半真半假,有的则全然子虚乌有。有意思的是,出版物的规模、声望与报道的准确性之间毫无关联可言。一家全国性大刊曾郑重其事地登过一则彻头彻尾的谣言,另一家重要刊物则把一笔套利头寸写成了长期投资承诺,把读者带进了沟里。(此处不点名,我是守着那句老话:别去招惹论桶买墨水的人。)

The second comment is related: During 1987, as in some earlier years, there was speculation in the press from time to time about our purchase or sale of various securities. These stories were sometimes true, sometimes partially true, and other times completely untrue. Interestingly, there has been no correlation between the size and prestige of the publication and the accuracy of the report. One dead-wrong rumor was given considerable prominence by a major national magazine, and another leading publication misled its readers by writing about an arbitrage position as if it were a long-term investment commitment. (In not naming names, I am observing the old warning that it's not wise to pick fights with people who buy ink by the barrel.)

你们该明白,无论谣言真假,我们一概不予置评。倘若我们去否认那些失实的报道,又对属实的报道拒绝表态,那实际上就等于对所有传闻都作了回应。

You should understand that we simply don't comment in any way on rumors, whether they are true or false. If we were to deny the incorrect reports and refuse comment on the correct ones, we would in effect be commenting on all.

在一个大投资点子既稀缺又值钱的世界里,除非法律要求,我们没兴趣把自己在做什么告诉潜在的对手。我们当然也不指望别人向我们透露他们的投资念头。同样,我们不会指望一家传媒公司公开自己私下追逐的并购,也不会指望一位记者把手头正在做的选题、正在动用的信源一五一十讲给同行听。

In a world in which big investment ideas are both limited and valuable, we have no interest in telling potential competitors what we are doing except to the extent required by law. We certainly don't expect others to tell us of their investment ideas. Nor would we expect a media company to disclose news of acquisitions it was privately pursuing or a journalist to tell his competitors about stories on which he is working or sources he is using.

有时朋友或熟人说,他们正因为有报道称伯克希尔在买入 X 而跟着买——而那报道其实是错的——这让我很不自在。但我不会去纠正他们。他们若真想参与伯克希尔实际在买的东西,随时可以买入伯克希尔的股票。可这也许太简单了。我私下揣度,比起来,他们通常觉得追买众人正议论的股票更带劲。至于那样是不是更赚钱,则又是另一回事了。

I find it uncomfortable when friends or acquaintances mention that they are buying X because it has been reported - incorrectly - that Berkshire is a buyer. However, I do not set them straight. If they want to participate in whatever Berkshire actually is buying, they can always purchase Berkshire stock. But perhaps that is too simple. Usually, I suspect, they find it more exciting to buy what is being talked about. Whether that strategy is more profitable is another question.

融资

Financing

年底刚过不久,伯克希尔发行了两期公司债券,合计 2.5 亿美元。两期债券均于 2018 年到期,并将从 1999 年起通过偿债基金匀速赎回。扣除发行费用后,我们的整体利息成本略高于 10%。所罗门担任我们的投资银行,服务十分出色。

Shortly after yearend, Berkshire sold two issues of debentures, totaling $250 million. Both issues mature in 2018 and will be retired at an even pace through sinking fund operations that begin in 1999. Our overall interest cost, after allowing for expenses of issuance, is slightly over 10%. Salomon was our investment banker, and its service was excellent.

尽管我们对通胀持悲观看法,但我们负债的胃口却相当有限。诚然,如果伯克希尔将债务与商业价值的比率提高到远高于当前、但仍属常规的水平,很可能可以提升净资产收益率。我们更有把握的是,即便经济状况远比 20 世纪 30 年代初以来任何时候都更恶劣,我们也能不出问题地承受这样的债务水平。

Despite our pessimistic views about inflation, our taste for debt is quite limited. To be sure, it is likely that Berkshire could improve its return on equity by moving to a much higher, though still conventional, debt-to-business-value ratio. It's even more likely that we could handle such a ratio, without problems, under economic conditions far worse than any that have prevailed since the early 1930s.

但我们不希望仅仅是"很可能"还得起债;我们想要的是"确定无疑"还得起。正因如此,我们恪守一系列原则——无论是在债务问题上,还是在其他所有事项上——这些原则能让我们在极其不利的条件下取得可接受的长期结果,而不是在正常条件下追求最优结果。

But we do not wish it to be only likely that we can meet our obligations; we wish that to be certain. Thus we adhere to policies - both in regard to debt and all other matters - that will allow us to achieve acceptable long-term results under extraordinarily adverse conditions, rather than optimal results under a normal range of conditions.

好的经营决策或投资决策,最终自然会带来相当令人满意的经济成果,无需借助杠杆。因此,为了额外赚取一些相对不重要的回报,而拿至关重要的东西去冒险(其中必然包括保单持有人和员工等无辜相关方的福祉),在我们看来既愚蠢又不恰当。这个观点并非因为我们年岁渐长,也非源于我们境况宽裕:我们对债务的看法始终如一。

Good business or investment decisions will eventually produce quite satisfactory economic results, with no aid from leverage. Therefore, it seems to us to be both foolish and improper to risk what is important (including, necessarily, the welfare of innocent bystanders such as policyholders and employees) for some extra returns that are relatively unimportant. This view is not the product of either our advancing age or prosperity: Our opinions about debt have remained constant.

不过,我们也并不惧怕借钱。(我们远没到认为没有比负债更糟糕的命运那种地步。)我们愿意借入我们认为——即便在最坏情况下——也不会威胁伯克希尔根基的金额。在分析这个金额可以是多少时,我们可以审视一些重要优势,倘若严重问题席卷美国经济,这些优势将帮我们从容应对:伯克希尔的盈利来自众多多元且根基稳固的业务;这些业务很少需要大量资本投入;我们的既有债务结构良好;我们还持有大量流动性资产。显然,即便债务与商业价值的比率高于当前水平,我们也完全能够从容承受。

However, we are not phobic about borrowing. (We're far from believing that there is no fate worse than debt.) We are willing to borrow an amount that we believe - on a worst-case basis - will pose no threat to Berkshire's well-being. Analyzing what that amount might be, we can look to some important strengths that would serve us well if major problems should engulf our economy: Berkshire's earnings come from many diverse and well- entrenched businesses; these businesses seldom require much capital investment; what debt we have is structured well; and we maintain major holdings of liquid assets. Clearly, we could be comfortable with a higher debt-to-business-value ratio than we now have.

我们债务政策的另一个方面也值得提及:与商界许多人不同,我们倾向于未雨绸缪地融资,而不是等到需要时才被动应对。一家企业通过妥善管理资产负债表两端,方能取得可能的最佳财务结果。这意味着在资产端获取尽可能高的回报,在负债端付出尽可能低的成本。如果两端同时出现明智行动的机会,当然很省事。然而,理性告诉我们,现实往往正好相反:银根紧缩时期——对应负债成本高企——反而会创造最佳收购机会;而资金泛滥时期则会导致资产价格被哄抬至天价。我们的结论是:负债端的行动有时应独立于资产端的任何行动。

One further aspect of our debt policy deserves comment: Unlike many in the business world, we prefer to finance in anticipation of need rather than in reaction to it. A business obtains the best financial results possible by managing both sides of its balance sheet well. This means obtaining the highest-possible return on assets and the lowest-possible cost on liabilities. It would be convenient if opportunities for intelligent action on both fronts coincided. However, reason tells us that just the opposite is likely to be the case: Tight money conditions, which translate into high costs for liabilities, will create the best opportunities for acquisitions, and cheap money will cause assets to be bid to the sky. Our conclusion: Action on the liability side should sometimes be taken independent of any action on the asset side.

可惜,在任何特定时点,"紧缩"和"泛滥"的资金都远非一目了然。我们没有能力预测利率走向,而且——秉持我们一贯的开放心态——认为也没有别人能预测。因此,我们只是在市场条件看上去尚不为难人时借入资金,并寄望日后能找到明智的扩张或收购机会,而这类机会——正如我们曾说过的——最有可能在债务市场条件明显为难人时集中出现。我们的基本原则是:如果你想射杀稀有且快速奔跑的大象,那就该永远扛着一把上膛的枪。

Alas, what is "tight" and "cheap" money is far from clear at any particular time. We have no ability to forecast interest rates and - maintaining our usual open-minded spirit - believe that no one else can. Therefore, we simply borrow when conditions seem non-oppressive and hope that we will later find intelligent expansion or acquisition opportunities, which - as we have said - are most likely to pop up when conditions in the debt market are clearly oppressive. Our basic principle is that if you want to shoot rare, fast-moving elephants, you should always carry a loaded gun.

我们这种"先筹钱、后寻收购或扩张"的政策,几乎总会拖累短期收益。例如,我们最近以 10% 的利率筹集的 2.5 亿美元,目前收益率只有约 6.5%,这个负利差现在每周让我们损失约 16 万美元。这点负利差对我们来说无足轻重,不会因此勉强去做收购,也不会去追逐收益率更高的短期工具。倘若未来五年左右我们能找到合适的"大象"级企业,那这番等待就是值得的。

Our fund-first, buy-or-expand-later policy almost always penalizes near-term earnings. For example, we are now earning about 6 1/2% on the $250 million we recently raised at 10%, a disparity that is currently costing us about $160,000 per week. This negative spread is unimportant to us and will not cause us to stretch for either acquisitions or higher-yielding short-term instruments. If we find the right sort of business elephant within the next five years or so, the wait will have been worthwhile.

其他事项

Miscellaneous

我们希望能多收购一些与现有业务相似的企业,各位可以帮上忙。如果你手头有一家企业符合如下条件,请给我来电,或者更好是来信。

We hope to buy more businesses that are similar to the ones we have, and we can use some help. If you have a business that fits the following criteria, call me or, preferably, write.

我们寻找的对象是:

Here's what we're looking for:

(1)大额收购(税后利润至少 1000 万美元);

(1) large purchases (at least $10 million of after-tax earnings),

(2)已证明具备持续盈利能力(我们对未来预测兴趣不大,"扭亏为盈"的情形也不合我们胃口);

(2) demonstrated consistent earning power (future projections are of little interest to us, nor are "turnaround" situations),

(3)几乎不靠或完全不靠负债、却能取得良好净资产回报的企业;

(3) businesses earning good returns on equity while employing little or no debt,

(4)管理层现成在位(这一点我们无法提供);

(4) management in place (we can't supply it),

(5)简单的生意(技术含量一多,我们就看不懂了);

(5) simple businesses (if there's lots of technology, we won't understand it),

(6)明码标价(价钱未知的交易,哪怕只是初步谈谈,我们也不想白白耗掉自己和卖方的时间)。

(6) an offering price (we don't want to waste our time or that of the seller by talking, even preliminarily, about a transaction when price is unknown).

我们绝不搞敌意收购。我们能保证完全保密,也能极快答复——通常五分钟之内——告诉你我们感不感兴趣。我们偏爱现金收购,但只要我们收到的内在商业价值与付出的股票相当,也会考虑增发股票。我们欢迎潜在卖方向那些过去与我们打过交道的人打听我们的底细。对于对路的企业——以及对路的人——我们能提供一个好归宿。

We will not engage in unfriendly takeovers. We can promise complete confidentiality and a very fast answer - customarily within five minutes - as to whether we're interested. We prefer to buy for cash, but will consider issuing stock when we receive as much in intrinsic business value as we give. We invite potential sellers to check us out by contacting people with whom we have done business in the past. For the right business - and the right people - we can provide a good home.

另一方面,我们也常碰到一些八竿子打不着我们标准的收购提议:新创企业、扭亏项目、拍卖式甩卖,还有经纪人中间那句永不过时的“只要你们俩坐下来认识认识,准能谈成点什么”。这些没有一样能勾起我们半分兴致。

On the other hand, we frequently get approached about acquisitions that don't come close to meeting our tests: new ventures, turnarounds, auction-like sales, and the ever-popular (among brokers) "I'm-sure-something-will-work-out-if-you-people- get-to-know-each-other." None of these attracts us in the least.

除了收购上面所说的整家企业,我们也有兴趣以协议方式买入大额但不控股的股票,正如我们持有大都会/美国广播公司和所罗门的那种。我们尤其有意将可转换优先股作为长期投资来购买,就像在所罗门做的那样。

Besides being interested in the purchases of entire businesses as described above, we are also interested in the negotiated purchase of large, but not controlling, blocks of stock comparable to those we hold in Cap Cities and Salomon. We have a special interest in purchasing convertible preferreds as a long-term investment, as we did at Salomon.

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现在来点似曾相识的往事。伯克希尔多数主要股东手里的股份,是在 1969 年底巴菲特合伙有限公司清算分配时拿到的。这些昔日的合伙人中,有些或许还记得:1962 年,我在德姆斯特米尔斯制造公司——一家由 BPL 控制、生产水泵和农具的厂子——遇上了棘手的管理难题。

And now a bit of deja vu. Most of Berkshire's major stockholders received their shares at yearend 1969 in a liquidating distribution from Buffett Partnership, Ltd. Some of these former partners will remember that in 1962 I encountered severe managerial problems at Dempster Mill Manufacturing Co., a pump and farm implement manufacturing company that BPL controlled.

那时候和现在一样,遇到自己啃不动的难题,我就去找查理。查理说,答案也许在他一位加州朋友哈里·博特尔身上,此人的独门本事,是永远不忘根本。1962 年 4 月 17 日,我在洛杉矶见到哈里;4 月 23 日,他就已在内布拉斯加州的比阿特丽斯坐镇德姆斯特了。我们的难题几乎立刻烟消云散。在 1962 年致合伙人的年信里,我把哈里评为“年度人物”。

At that time, like now, I went to Charlie with problems that were too tough for me to solve. Charlie suggested the solution might lie in a California friend of his, Harry Bottle, whose special knack was never forgetting the fundamental. I met Harry in Los Angeles on April 17, 1962, and on April 23 he was in Beatrice, Nebraska, running Dempster. Our problems disappeared almost immediately. In my 1962 annual letter to partners, I named Harry "Man of the Year."

时光快进到 24 年后:场景换成了 K & W 产品公司,伯克希尔旗下一家生产汽车用化合物的小子公司。多年来 K & W 一直做得不错,可 1985 至 1986 年却栽了个大跟头,只因它一味去追那些够不着的,反倒荒废了本能做成的。分管 K & W 的查理心知无需找我商量,转身给已 68 岁的哈里去了个电话,让他出任首席执行官,然后就袖手静候那水到渠成的结果。他没等多久。1987 年,K & W 利润创下新高,比 1986 年增长逾 300%。而且利润上去的同时,动用的资本反倒下来了:K & W 在应收账款和存货上的投入减少了 20%。

Fade to 24 years later: The scene is K & W Products, a small Berkshire subsidiary that produces automotive compounds. For years K & W did well, but in 1985-86 it stumbled badly, as it pursued the unattainable to the neglect of the achievable. Charlie, who oversees K & W, knew there was no need to consult me. Instead, he called Harry, now 68 years old, made him CEO, and sat back to await the inevitable. He didn't wait long. In 1987 K & W's profits set a record, up more than 300% from 1986. And, as profits went up, capital employed went down: K & W's investment in accounts receivable and inventories has decreased 20%.

倘若十年或二十年后我们再撞上一桩管理难题,你也就知道谁的电话该响了。

If we run into another managerial problem ten or twenty years down the road, you know whose phone will ring.

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在伯克希尔 1987 年的股东指定捐款计划中,约有 97.2% 的合格股份参与其中。经由该计划捐出的款项共 490 万美元,惠及 2050 家慈善机构。

About 97.2% of all eligible shares participated in Berkshire's 1987 shareholder-designated contributions program. Contributions made through the program were $4.9 million, and 2,050 charities were recipients.

近来一项调查显示,约有 50% 的美国大公司会为董事所作的慈善捐款配捐(有时按三比一)。说白了,这些所有者的代表,把钱定向拨给自己中意的慈善机构,却从不过问所有者本人的慈善偏好。(我倒想知道,若把这套倒过来,让股东可以掏董事的腰包去捐给股东中意的慈善机构,他们又会作何感想。)当 A 从 B 手里拿钱给 C,而 A 是立法者,这个过程叫征税;可当 A 是公司高管或董事时,它就成了慈善。我们始终认为,除了那些对公司有明确直接好处的捐款,捐款理应体现所有者的慈善偏好,而不是高管和董事的偏好。

A recent survey reported that about 50% of major American companies match charitable contributions made by directors (sometimes by a factor of three to one). In effect, these representatives of the owners direct funds to their favorite charities, and never consult the owners as to their charitable preferences. (I wonder how they would feel if the process were reversed and shareholders could invade the directors' pockets for charities favored by the shareholders.) When A takes money from B to give to C and A is a legislator, the process is called taxation. But when A is an officer or director of a corporation, it is called philanthropy. We continue to believe that contributions, aside from those with quite clear direct benefits to the company, should reflect the charitable preferences of owners rather than those of officers and directors.

我们敦促新股东读一读第 54、55 页关于本公司股东指定捐款计划的说明。你若想参与日后的计划,我们强烈建议你立刻确认自己的股份登记在实际所有人名下,而非登记在“代持”名义或代名人名下。凡在 1988 年 9 月 30 日未如此登记的股份,都无缘 1988 年的计划。

We urge new shareholders to read the description of our shareholder-designated contributions program that appears on pages 54 and 55. If you wish to participate in future programs, we strongly urge that you immediately make sure your shares are registered in the name of the actual owner, not in "street" name or nominee name. Shares not so registered on September 30, l988 will be ineligible for the 1988 program.

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去年,我们的年会又来了约 450 位股东。一如既往,他们提的那六十来个问题都精彩极了。在许多公司,年会纯属浪费光阴,因为总有些爱出风头的人把它搅成一场杂耍。我们的年会却不一样:它让股东长见识,也让我们乐在其中。(在伯克希尔的会上,爱出风头的是台上的我们。)

Last year we again had about 450 shareholders at our annual meeting. The 60 or so questions they asked were, as always, excellent. At many companies, the annual meeting is a waste of time because exhibitionists turn it into a sideshow. Ours, however, is different. It is informative for shareholders and fun for us. (At Berkshire's meetings, the exhibitionists are on the dais.)

今年的年会定于 1988 年 5 月 23 日在奥马哈举行,我们盼你能来。这是个场合,你尽可以提出任何与所有者相关的问题,我们会一直答下去,直到把所有问题(涉及投资组合动向或其他专有信息的除外)都答完为止。

This year our meeting will be on May 23, 1988 in Omaha, and we hope that you come. The meeting provides the forum for you to ask any owner-related questions you may have, and we will keep answering until all (except those dealing with portfolio activities or other proprietary information) have been dealt with.

去年我们租了两辆巴士——花了 100 美元——载有兴趣的股东去家具城。你们的举动证明了自己的好眼光:你们一口气抢下了约 4 万美元的便宜货。B 夫人嫌这笔开支对销售额的比例偏高,把它归咎于我一向不关注成本、管理上马马虎虎。不过她一如既往地大度,又给了我一次机会,会后我们仍会备好巴士。B 夫人说你们今年必须超过去年的销售数字,我已经告诉她,她不会失望的。

Last year we rented two buses - for $100 - to take shareholders interested in the trip to the Furniture Mart. Your actions demonstrated your good judgment: You snapped up about $40,000 of bargains. Mrs. B regards this expense/sales ratio as on the high side and attributes it to my chronic inattention to costs and generally sloppy managerial practices. But, gracious as always, she has offered me another chance and we will again have buses available following the meeting. Mrs. B says you must beat last year's sales figures, and I have told her she won't be disappointed.

沃伦·E·巴菲特

董事长

1988 年 2 月 29 日

Warren E. Buffett February 29, 1988 Chairman of the Board