1996 年致股东信
致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司全体股东:
To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:
1996 年我们的净资产增长了 62 亿美元,增幅 36.1%。然而,由于伯克希尔股票数量增加——我们为收购飞安国际发行了股票,还出售了新的 B 类股——每股账面价值增长略低,为 31.8%。* 过去 32 年(即自现任管理层接手以来),每股账面价值从 19 美元增至 19,011 美元,年复合增长率 23.8%。
Our gain in net worth during 1996 was $6.2 billion, or 36.1%. Per- share book value, however, grew by less, 31.8%, because the number of Berkshire shares increased: We issued stock in acquiring FlightSafety International and also sold new Class B shares.* Over the last 32 years (that is, since present management took over) per-share book value has grown from $19 to $19,011, or at a rate of 23.8% compounded annually.
- 每股 B 类股票的经济权益相当于 A 类股票的 1/30,A 类是 1996 年 5 月之前伯克希尔唯一在外流通股票的新的命名。在本报告中,我们以“A 类等价股”为单位陈述所有每股数据,即 A 类流通股数量与 B 类流通股数量的 1/30 之和。
- Each Class B share has an economic interest equal to 1/30th of that possessed by a Class A share, which is the new designation for the only stock that Berkshire had outstanding before May 1996. Throughout this report, we state all per-share figures in terms of "Class A equivalents," which are the sum of the Class A shares outstanding and 1/30th of the Class B shares outstanding.
出于技术原因,我们重述了 1995 年的财务报表,这要求我做一些关于会计深奥之处的、不太激动人心的解释。我会尽量简短。
For technical reasons, we have restated our 1995 financial statements, a matter that requires me to present one of my less-than- thrilling explanations of accounting arcana. I'll make it brief.
此次重述是必需的,因为 GEICO 于 1996 年 1 月 2 日成为伯克希尔的完全控股子公司,而此前它被归类为一项投资。从经济角度看——考虑到我们获得的重大税收效率及其他利益——我们在 1995 年底持有的 GEICO 51% 股权,在我们两天后收购剩余 49% 股权时,其价值显著增加。然而,适用于此类“分步收购”的会计准则,要求我们在转向 100% 控股时,对我们持有的 51% 股权进行减值处理。这一减值——自然也减少了账面价值——金额为 4.784 亿美元。因此,我们现在将原先持有的 GEICO 51% 股权的入账价值,不仅低于我们购买剩余 49% 股权时的市场价值,也低于我们对那 49% 股权的入账价值。
The restatement was required because GEICO became a wholly-owned subsidiary of Berkshire on January 2, 1996, whereas it was previously classified as an investment. From an economic viewpoint - taking into account major tax efficiencies and other benefits we gained - the value of the 51% of GEICO we owned at year-end 1995 increased significantly when we acquired the remaining 49% of the company two days later. Accounting rules applicable to this type of "step acquisition," however, required us to write down the value of our 51% at the time we moved to 100%. That writedown - which also, of course, reduced book value - amounted to $478.4 million. As a result, we now carry our original 51% of GEICO at a value that is both lower than its market value at the time we purchased the remaining 49% of the company and lower than the value at which we carry that 49% itself.
不过,我刚才描述的账面价值减少,有一项抵消因素:1996 年期间,我们两次以高于账面价值的价格发行伯克希尔股票,一次是在 5 月份,我们通过出售 B 股筹集现金,另一次是在 12 月份,我们用 A 股和 B 股作为飞安国际的部分付款。总体来看,这三项非经营性项目对账面价值的影响,为我们去年每股 31.8% 的增长贡献了不到一个百分点。
There is an offset, however, to the reduction in book value I have just described: Twice during 1996 we issued Berkshire shares at a premium to book value, first in May when we sold the B shares for cash and again in December when we used both A and B shares as part-payment for FlightSafety. In total, the three non-operational items affecting book value contributed less than one percentage point to our 31.8% per- share gain last year.
我之所以特别提到每股账面价值的增长,是因为它大致反映了我们这一年的经济进展。但正如伯克希尔副董事长查理·芒格和我一再告诉你们的,对伯克希尔而言,真正重要的是内在价值,而非账面价值。上一次你们收到这个信息,是在我们发行 B 类股之后、于 6 月寄给各位的《股东手册》中。在那本手册里,我们不仅定义了一些关键术语——比如内在价值——也阐述了我们的经济原则。
I dwell on this rise in per-share book value because it roughly indicates our economic progress during the year. But, as Charlie Munger, Berkshire's Vice Chairman, and I have repeatedly told you, what counts at Berkshire is intrinsic value, not book value. The last time you got that message from us was in the Owner's Manual, sent to you in June after we issued the Class B shares. In that manual, we not only defined certain key terms - such as intrinsic value - but also set forth our economic principles.
多年来,我们一直在年报的前页列出这些原则,但在本报告中,从第 58 页至第 67 页,我们完整重印了《股东手册》。在本封信中,我们会不时提及该手册,以免重复某些定义和解释。例如,若您想重温“内在价值”的概念,请参阅第 64 和 65 页。
For many years, we have listed these principles in the front of our annual report, but in this report, on pages 58 to 67, we reproduce the entire Owner's Manual. In this letter, we will occasionally refer to the manual so that we can avoid repeating certain definitions and explanations. For example, if you wish to brush up on "intrinsic value," see pages 64 and 65.
去年,我们首次为您提供了一张表格,我和查理认为这张表格有助于任何人估算伯克希尔的内在价值。在随附的更新版表格中,我们追踪了两个关键的价值指标。第一列列出我们每股持有的投资(包括现金及等价物),第二列则展示伯克希尔运营业务在扣除所有利息和公司管理费用后、但在税前及购并会计调整前的每股收益。运营收益一栏不包括我们从第一列所列投资中实现的任何股息、利息和资本利得。实际上,这两列展示的是,如果伯克希尔拆分为两部分,其报告的内容会是什么样子。
Last year, for the first time, we supplied you with a table that Charlie and I believe will help anyone trying to estimate Berkshire's intrinsic value. In the updated version of that table, which follows, we trace two key indices of value. The first column lists our per-share ownership of investments (including cash and equivalents) and the second column shows our per-share earnings from Berkshire's operating businesses before taxes and purchase-accounting adjustments but after all interest and corporate overhead expenses. The operating-earnings column excludes all dividends, interest and capital gains that we realized from the investments presented in the first column. In effect, the two columns show what Berkshire would have reported had it been broken into two parts.
| 年份 | 每股投资额 | 剔除所有投资收入后的每股税前利润 |
|---|---|---|
| 1965 | 4 美元 | 4.08 美元 |
| 1975 | 159 美元 | (6.48)美元 |
| 1985 | 2443 美元 | 18.86 美元 |
| 1995 | 22088 美元 | 258.20 美元 |
| 1996 | 28500 美元 | 421.39 美元 |
Pre-tax Earnings Per Share Investments Excluding All Income from Year Per Share Investments ---- ----------- ------------------------- 1965................................$ 4 $ 4.08 1975................................ 159 (6.48) 1985................................ 2,443 18.86 1995................................ 22,088 258.20 1996................................ 28,500 421.39
| 年份区间 | 伯克希尔每股账面价值年复合增长率 | 标普 500 指数年复合增长率 |
|---|---|---|
| 1965–95 年年复合增长率 | 33.4% | 14.7% |
| 1995–96 年单年增长率 | 29.0% | 63.2% |
Annual Growth Rate, 1965-95......... 33.4% 14.7% One-Year Growth Rate, 1995-96 ...... 29.0% 63.2%
如表所示,1996 年我们的每股投资增长了 29.0%,非投资类收益增长了 63.2%。我们的目标是让这两栏数字都以合理(或者,最好是不合理的)速度继续前进。
As the table tells you, our investments per share increased in 1996 by 29.0% and our non-investment earnings grew by 63.2%. Our goal is to keep the numbers in both columns moving ahead at a reasonable (or, better yet, unreasonable) pace.
不过,我们的预期受到两个现实因素的制约。其一,过去那种增长率已无法复现,甚至难以企及:伯克希尔目前的股权资本规模庞大——实际上,全美资本规模超过我们的企业不超过十家——而资金充裕往往会使回报率走低。其二,无论我们的进展速度如何,都不会是一条平顺的曲线:上表第一栏的逐年变化,会在很大程度上受到证券市场波动的影响;第二栏的数据,则会因巨灾再保险业务盈利水平的剧烈起伏而受到牵动。
Our expectations, however, are tempered by two realities. First, our past rates of growth cannot be matched nor even approached: Berkshire's equity capital is now large - in fact, fewer than ten businesses in America have capital larger - and an abundance of funds tends to dampen returns. Second, whatever our rate of progress, it will not be smooth: Year-to-year moves in the first column of the table above will be influenced in a major way by fluctuations in securities markets; the figures in the second column will be affected by wide swings in the profitability of our catastrophe-reinsurance business.
在表格中,依据股东指定捐赠计划所做出的捐赠计入第二列,尽管我们视其为股东福利而非开支。所有其他公司开支同样计入第二列。这些成本可能低于任何其他美国大公司:我们的税后总部费用按净资产衡量不足两个基点(即 1% 的五十分之一)。即便如此,查理曾认为这一费用比例高得离谱,归咎于我使用伯克希尔的公司飞机“不可辩驳号”。但查理最近经历了一次“反向启示”:随着我们收购飞安国际,其主业是培训公司飞行员,如今他只要提到飞机便会赞不绝口。
In the table, the donations made pursuant to our shareholder- designated contributions program are charged against the second column, though we view them as a shareholder benefit rather than as an expense. All other corporate expenses are also charged against the second column. These costs may be lower than those of any other large American corporation: Our after-tax headquarters expense amounts to less than two basis points (1/50th of 1%) measured against net worth. Even so, Charlie used to think this expense percentage outrageously high, blaming it on my use of Berkshire's corporate jet, The Indefensible. But Charlie has recently experienced a "counter-revelation": With our purchase of FlightSafety, whose major activity is the training of corporate pilots, he now rhapsodizes at the mere mention of jets.
说真的,成本很要紧。比方说,股票型共同基金要承担公司层面的费用——大头是给基金管理人的报酬——平均大约 100 个基点,这笔费用长期来看很可能让投资者的回报缩水 10% 甚至更多。查理和我对伯克希尔的业绩不作任何承诺。但我们向你们保证,伯克希尔赚到的钱,几乎全部都会落到股东手里。我们在这里,是跟你们一起赚钱,不是从你们身上赚钱。
Seriously, costs matter. For example, equity mutual funds incur corporate expenses - largely payments to the funds' managers - that average about 100 basis points, a levy likely to cut the returns their investors earn by 10% or more over time. Charlie and I make no promises about Berkshire's results. We do promise you, however, that virtually all of the gains Berkshire makes will end up with shareholders. We are here to make money with you, not off you.
内在价值与市场价格的关系
The Relationship of Intrinsic Value to Market Price
去年的信中,在伯克希尔股价为 36000 美元时,我曾告诉你们:(1)近年伯克希尔市值增长已超越其内在价值增长,尽管内在价值的提升同样令人满意;(2)这种超额表现无法持续永久;(3)查理和我在当时并不认为伯克希尔被低估。
In last year's letter, with Berkshire shares selling at $36,000, I told you: (1) Berkshire's gain in market value in recent years had outstripped its gain in intrinsic value, even though the latter gain had been highly satisfactory; (2) that kind of overperformance could not continue indefinitely; (3) Charlie and I did not at that moment consider Berkshire to be undervalued.
自从我写下那些告诫以来,伯克希尔的内在价值已大幅增长——很大程度上得益于 GEICO 的惊人表现,稍后我会详述——而我们的股价却几乎未动。这自然意味着 1996 年伯克希尔的股票表现不及业务本身。因此,如今的价格与价值关系,与一年前相比已大不相同,而且,按查理和我的看法,更为合理。
Since I set down those cautions, Berkshire's intrinsic value has increased very significantly - aided in a major way by a stunning performance at GEICO that I will tell you more about later - while the market price of our shares has changed little. This, of course, means that in 1996 Berkshire's stock underperformed the business. Consequently, today's price/value relationship is both much different from what it was a year ago and, as Charlie and I see it, more appropriate.
长期来看,伯克希尔股东的整体收益必然与公司经营成果相匹配。当股价暂时跑赢或跑输企业实际表现时,少数股东——无论卖方还是买方——会以交易对手的损失为代价,获得超额收益。在这场博弈中,老练者通常比懵懂者更具优势。
Over time, the aggregate gains made by Berkshire shareholders must of necessity match the business gains of the company. When the stock temporarily overperforms or underperforms the business, a limited number of shareholders - either sellers or buyers - receive outsized benefits at the expense of those they trade with. Generally, the sophisticated have an edge over the innocents in this game.
虽然我们的首要目标是让所有股东,作为一个整体,从他们对伯克希尔的持股中获得最大回报,但我们同样希望减少某些股东以牺牲其他股东利益为代价的好处。这些目标如同我们在经营家族合伙企业时会坚守的,我们相信对于一家上市公司的管理者来说,这些原则同样合理。在合伙企业中,公平要求合伙人进出时其权益得到公正评估;在上市公司中,当市场价格与内在价值同步时,公平得以体现。显然,两者不可能总是达到这种理想状态,但管理者——通过其政策和沟通——可以大有作为,促进这种公平。
Though our primary goal is to maximize the amount that our shareholders, in total, reap from their ownership of Berkshire, we wish also to minimize the benefits going to some shareholders at the expense of others. These are goals we would have were we managing a family partnership, and we believe they make equal sense for the manager of a public company. In a partnership, fairness requires that partnership interests be valued equitably when partners enter or exit; in a public company, fairness prevails when market price and intrinsic value are in sync. Obviously, they won't always meet that ideal, but a manager - by his policies and communications - can do much to foster equity.
当然,股东持有股票的时间越长,伯克希尔的经营业绩对他的财务体验影响就越大——而他在买入和卖出股票时,内在价值之上的溢价或折价对他的影响则越小。这正是我们希望吸引具有长期视野的股东的原因之一。总的来说,我认为我们在这方面做得很成功。在美国大型上市公司中,按长期持有者持股比例计算,伯克希尔很可能位列第一。
Of course, the longer a shareholder holds his shares, the more bearing Berkshire's business results will have on his financial experience - and the less it will matter what premium or discount to intrinsic value prevails when he buys and sells his stock. That's one reason we hope to attract owners with long-term horizons. Overall, I think we have succeeded in that pursuit. Berkshire probably ranks number one among large American corporations in the percentage of its shares held by owners with a long-term view.
Acquisitions of 1996
Acquisitions of 1996
1996 年我们完成两笔收购,两笔都恰好具备我们追求的特质——出色的商业经济特征和卓越的管理者。
We made two acquisitions in 1996, both possessing exactly the qualities we seek - excellent business economics and an outstanding manager.
第一笔收购是堪萨斯银行家保证保险公司(KBS),一家以业务领域命名的保险公司。这家公司在 22 个州开展业务,承保业绩极为出色,这归功于一位杰出的管理者——唐·托尔的努力。唐与数百位银行家建立了直接的关系,对公司的每一个细节都了如指掌。他把自己经营的这家公司视为“自己的”,这种态度在伯克希尔备受珍视。由于公司规模相对较小,我们将 KBS 并入了西科金融——我们持股 80% 的子公司,它一直希望扩大保险业务。
The first acquisition was Kansas Bankers Surety (KBS), an insurance company whose name describes its specialty. The company, which does business in 22 states, has an extraordinary underwriting record, achieved through the efforts of Don Towle, an extraordinary manager. Don has developed first-hand relationships with hundreds of bankers and knows every detail of his operation. He thinks of himself as running a company that is "his," an attitude we treasure at Berkshire. Because of its relatively small size, we placed KBS with Wesco, our 80%-owned subsidiary, which has wanted to expand its insurance operations.
你可能想了解伯克希尔是如何凭借一套精心设计、老练成熟的收购策略拿下这笔交易的。1996 年初,我受邀参加侄子的妻子简·罗杰斯的 40 岁生日派对。我一向对社交活动兴致不高,于是立刻用我一贯的、客套的方式,开始找借口推脱。派对的策划者随即巧妙应对,给我安排了一个座位,紧挨着一位我一向喜欢的人——简的父亲罗伊·丁斯代尔——所以我去了。
You might be interested in the carefully-crafted and sophisticated acquisition strategy that allowed Berkshire to nab this deal. Early in 1996 I was invited to the 40th birthday party of my nephew's wife, Jane Rogers. My taste for social events being low, I immediately, and in my standard, gracious way, began to invent reasons for skipping the event. The party planners then countered brilliantly by offering me a seat next to a man I always enjoy, Jane's dad, Roy Dinsdale - so I went.
派对在 1 月 26 日举行。尽管音乐声震耳欲聋——乐队演奏何必要像按分贝计酬似的?——我还是勉强听到罗伊说,他刚从堪萨斯银行家担保公司的董事会上赶来,那家公司我一直颇为欣赏。我扯着嗓子回应道,要是这家公司有意出售,让他务必告诉我一声。
The party took place on January 26. Though the music was loud - Why must bands play as if they will be paid by the decibel? - I just managed to hear Roy say he'd come from a directors meeting at Kansas Bankers Surety, a company I'd always admired. I shouted back that he should let me know if it ever became available for purchase.
2 月 12 日,我收到罗伊的来信:“亲爱的沃伦:随信附上堪萨斯银行家担保公司的年度财务信息。这就是我们在珍妮的聚会上谈到的公司。如果还需要我帮忙,请尽管开口。”2 月 13 日,我告诉罗伊,我们愿意出价 7500 万美元收购这家公司——不久后,交易便达成了。现在,我正盘算着怎么才能再次受邀参加珍妮的下一场聚会。
On February 12, I got the following letter from Roy: "Dear Warren: Enclosed is the annual financial information on Kansas Bankers Surety. This is the company that we talked about at Janie's party. If I can be of any further help, please let me know." On February 13, I told Roy we would pay $75 million for the company - and before long we had a deal. I'm now scheming to get invited to Jane's next party.
1996 年的另一笔收购——飞安国际(FlightSafety International),全球飞行员培训的领军企业——规模要大得多,约 15 亿美元,但起源同样充满机缘巧合。这个故事的主角首先是理查德·塞瑟(Richard Sercer),一位来自图森市的航空顾问;其次是他妻子阿尔玛·墨菲(Alma Murphy),哈佛医学院眼科学毕业生,1990 年她软磨硬泡,说服丈夫买入了伯克希尔的股票。此后,两人每年都参加我们的股东大会,但我与他们并无私交。
Our other acquisition in 1996 - FlightSafety International, the world's leader in the training of pilots - was far larger, at about $1.5 billion, but had an equally serendipitous origin. The heroes of this story are first, Richard Sercer, a Tucson aviation consultant, and second, his wife, Alma Murphy, an ophthalmology graduate of Harvard Medical School, who in 1990 wore down her husband's reluctance and got him to buy Berkshire stock. Since then, the two have attended all our Annual Meetings, but I didn't get to know them personally.
幸运的是,理查德本人也是飞安国际的长期股东,去年他忽然想到,这两家公司若能合并倒是天作之合。他了解我们的收购标准,也觉得飞安国际现年 79 岁的首席执行官阿尔·乌尔奇可能愿意做一笔交易,既为公司找个归宿,又能拿到一种他这辈子拿得安心、愿意一直持有的支付证券。于是 7 月,理查德写信给所罗门公司的首席执行官鲍勃·德纳姆,建议他研究一下合并的可能性。
Fortunately, Richard had also been a long-time shareholder of FlightSafety, and it occurred to him last year that the two companies would make a good fit. He knew our acquisition criteria, and he thought that Al Ueltschi, FlightSafety's 79-year-old CEO, might want to make a deal that would both give him a home for his company and a security in payment that he would feel comfortable owning throughout his lifetime. So in July, Richard wrote Bob Denham, CEO of Salomon Inc, suggesting that he explore the possibility of a merger.
鲍勃接着推进此事,9 月 18 日,我和阿尔在纽约见面。我对飞安国际的业务早有了解,大约 60 秒内我就确信,阿尔正是我们想要的那种经理人。一个月后,我们签下了合同。因为查理和我希望尽量减少伯克希尔股票的发行,我们设计的交易方案给了飞安国际股东现金或股票的选择权,但条款上倾向于鼓励那些对税务不敏感的股东选择现金。这一引导使得约 51% 的飞安国际股票换成了现金,41% 换成了伯克希尔 A 股,8% 换成了伯克希尔 B 股。
Bob took it from there, and on September 18, Al and I met in New York. I had long been familiar with FlightSafety's business, and in about 60 seconds I knew that Al was exactly our kind of manager. A month later, we had a contract. Because Charlie and I wished to minimize the issuance of Berkshire shares, the transaction we structured gave FlightSafety shareholders a choice of cash or stock but carried terms that encouraged those who were tax-indifferent to take cash. This nudge led to about 51% of FlightSafety's shares being exchanged for cash, 41% for Berkshire A and 8% for Berkshire B.
阿尔一生酷爱航空,确实曾为查尔斯·林德伯格执飞。在 20 世纪 30 年代完成巡回飞行表演生涯后,他开始为泛美航空传奇掌门人胡安·特里普工作。1951 年,他还在泛美任职时,就创办了飞安国际,随后将其打造成一家模拟机制造商和全球飞行员培训机构(涵盖单引擎飞机、直升机、喷气式飞机和船舶)。公司在 41 个地点运营,配备 175 台模拟机,覆盖从塞斯纳 210 这样的小型飞机到波音 747 的各类机型。模拟机价格不菲——单台最高可达 1900 万美元——因此,这项业务与我们的许多其他业务不同,属于资本密集型。公司约一半收入来自企业飞行员培训,其余大部分来自航空公司和军方。
Al has had a lifelong love affair with aviation and actually piloted Charles Lindbergh. After a barnstorming career in the 1930s, he began working for Juan Trippe, Pan Am's legendary chief. In 1951, while still at Pan Am, Al founded FlightSafety, subsequently building it into a simulator manufacturer and a worldwide trainer of pilots (single-engine, helicopter, jet and marine). The company operates in 41 locations, outfitted with 175 simulators of planes ranging from the very small, such as Cessna 210s, to Boeing 747s. Simulators are not cheap - they can cost as much as $19 million - so this business, unlike many of our operations, is capital intensive. About half of the company's revenues are derived from the training of corporate pilots, with most of the balance coming from airlines and the military.
阿尔虽然 79 岁了,但看起来和行动上都像 55 岁。他将如以往一样运营公司事务:我们从不折腾成功。我告诉他,尽管我们不赞成拆分伯克希尔的股票,但在他满 100 岁时,我们会把他的年龄一股拆两股。
Al may be 79, but he looks and acts about 55. He will run operations just as he has in the past: We never fool with success. I have told him that though we don't believe in splitting Berkshire stock, we will split his age 2-for-1 when he hits 100.
旁观者看了我们的用人做法,也许会以为查理和我早年是被平等就业机会委员会关于年龄歧视的通告吓大的。但实际上,真正的解释很简单,就是出于私心:老狗学不会新把戏。伯克希尔那些年过七十的经理人,如今依然保持着当年让他们以年轻重炮手闻名的节奏,天天打出本垒打。所以,想在我们这儿谋个差事,不妨学学那位 76 岁老翁的招数,他说服了一位 25 岁的绝色佳人嫁给他。眼红的同龄人问他:“你到底怎么让她答应的?”老翁回答:“我告诉她我 86 岁。”
An observer might conclude from our hiring practices that Charlie and I were traumatized early in life by an EEOC bulletin on age discrimination. The real explanation, however, is self-interest: It's difficult to teach a new dog old tricks. The many Berkshire managers who are past 70 hit home runs today at the same pace that long ago gave them reputations as young slugging sensations. Therefore, to get a job with us, just employ the tactic of the 76-year-old who persuaded a dazzling beauty of 25 to marry him. "How did you ever get her to accept?" asked his envious contemporaries. The comeback: "I told her I was 86."
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下面插播我们的例行广告:如果你拥有一家经济特征优良的大型企业,并且希望与一批同样特征出众的企业为伍,伯克希尔或许正是你寻觅的归宿。我们的要求列在第 21 页。若贵公司符合这些条件——且我未能出席你参加的下一场生日聚会——不妨给我打个电话。
And now we pause for our usual commercial: If you own a large business with good economic characteristics and wish to become associated with an exceptional collection of businesses having similar characteristics, Berkshire may well be the home you seek. Our requirements are set forth on page 21. If your company meets them - and if I fail to make the next birthday party you attend - give me a call.
保险业务——概览
Insurance Operations - Overview
1996 年,我们的保险业务表现堪称出色。无论是主营直接保险业务的 GEICO,还是我们的“巨灾再保险”业务,业绩都极为亮眼。
Our insurance business was terrific in 1996. In both primary insurance, where GEICO is our main unit, and in our "super-cat" reinsurance business, results were outstanding.
正如我们在过去的报告中解释过的,保险业务的关键在于两点:第一,我们产生的“浮存金”规模;第二,这些浮存金的成本。理解这两点对你很重要,因为浮存金是伯克希尔内在价值的重要组成部分,但它并未体现在账面价值中。
As we've explained in past reports, what counts in our insurance business is, first, the amount of "float" we generate and, second, its cost to us. These are matters that are important for you to understand because float is a major component of Berkshire's intrinsic value that is not reflected in book value.
先说说浮存金:这是由我们持有、但并非我们所有的资金。在保险业务中,浮存金之所以存在,是因为保费先于赔付收取。其次,保险公司收进来的保费,通常不足以覆盖最终要赔付的损失和开支。这就产生了“承保亏损”,也就是浮存金的成本。一家保险公司的价值,在于长期来看其浮存金的成本低于公司通过其他渠道获取资金的成本。但如果浮存金的成本高于市场利率,那这门生意就成了沉重的负担。
To begin with, float is money we hold but don't own. In an insurance operation, float arises because premiums are received before losses are paid. Secondly, the premiums that an insurer takes in typically do not cover the losses and expenses it eventually must pay. That leaves it running an "underwriting loss," which is the cost of float. An insurance business has value if its cost of float over time is less than the cost the company would otherwise incur to obtain funds. But the business is an albatross if the cost of its float is higher than market rates for money.
如下表数字所示,伯克希尔的保险业务取得了巨大成功。在该表中,我们计算的浮存金——相对于保费规模而言,我们产生了大量浮存金——是通过将损失准备金、损失调整准备金、再保险承担资金及未赚保费准备金相加,再减去代理人余额、预付收购成本、预付税款及适用于承担再保险的递延费用得出的。我们的浮存金成本由承保亏损或盈利决定。在那些我们实现承保利润的年份,比如过去四年,我们的浮存金成本为负。实际上,我们是被付费来持有资金的。
As the numbers in the following table show, Berkshire's insurance business has been a huge winner. For the table, we have calculated our float - which we generate in large amounts relative to our premium volume - by adding loss reserves, loss adjustment reserves, funds held under reinsurance assumed and unearned premium reserves, and then subtracting agents' balances, prepaid acquisition costs, prepaid taxes and deferred charges applicable to assumed reinsurance. Our cost of float is determined by our underwriting loss or profit. In those years when we have had an underwriting profit, such as the last four, our cost of float has been negative. In effect, we have been paid for holding money.
| (1) | (2) | 年末收益率 |
|---|---|---|
| 承保损失 | 平均浮存金 | 长期政府债券收益率 |
| (单位:百万美元) | (第 1 项与第 2 项之比) |
(1) (2) Yearend Yield
Underwriting Approximat on Long-Term
Loss Average Float Cost of Funds Govt. Bonds
------------ ------------- ---------------- -------------
(In $ Millions) (Ratio of 1 to 2)| 年份 | 承保结果 | 年末浮存金(百万美元) | 浮存金成本(含自留损失准备) | 长期债券收益率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1967 | 盈利 | 17.3 | 低于零 | 5.50% |
| 1968 | 盈利 | 19.9 | 低于零 | 5.90% |
| 1969 | 盈利 | 23.4 | 低于零 | 6.79% |
| 1970 | 0.37 | 32.4 | 1.14% | 6.25% |
| 1971 | 盈利 | 52.5 | 低于零 | 5.81% |
| 1972 | 盈利 | 69.5 | 低于零 | 5.82% |
| 1973 | 盈利 | 73.3 | 低于零 | 7.27% |
| 1974 | 7.36 | 79.1 | 9.30% | 8.13% |
| 1975 | 11.35 | 87.6 | 12.96% | 8.03% |
| 1976 | 盈利 | 102.6 | 低于零 | 7.30% |
| 1977 | 盈利 | 139.0 | 低于零 | 7.97% |
| 1978 | 盈利 | 190.4 | 低于零 | 8.93% |
| 1979 | 盈利 | 227.3 | 低于零 | 10.08% |
| 1980 | 盈利 | 237.0 | 低于零 | 11.94% |
| 1981 | 盈利 | 228.4 | 低于零 | 13.61% |
| 1982 | 21.56 | 220.6 | 9.77% | 10.64% |
| 1983 | 33.87 | 231.3 | 14.64% | 11.84% |
| 1984 | 48.06 | 253.2 | 18.98% | 11.58% |
| 1985 | 44.23 | 390.2 | 11.34% | 9.34% |
| 1986 | 55.84 | 797.5 | 7.00% | 7.60% |
| 1987 | 55.43 | 1,266.7 | 4.38% | 8.95% |
| 1988 | 11.08 | 1,497.7 | 0.74% | 9.00% |
| 1989 | 24.40 | 1,541.3 | 1.58% | 7.97% |
| 1990 | 26.65 | 1,637.3 | 1.63% | 8.24% |
| 1991 | 119.59 | 1,895.0 | 6.31% | 7.40% |
| 1992 | 108.96 | 2,290.4 | 4.76% | 7.39% |
| 1993 | 盈利 | 2,624.7 | 低于零 | 6.35% |
| 1994 | 盈利 | 3,056.6 | 低于零 | 7.88% |
| 1995 | 盈利 | 3,607.2 | 低于零 | 5.95% |
| 1996 | 盈利 | 6,702.0 | 低于零 | 6.64% |
1967.......... profit 17.3 less than zero 5.50% 1968.......... profit 19.9 less than zero 5.90% 1969.......... profit 23.4 less than zero 6.79% 1970.......... 0.37 32.4 1.14% 6.25% 1971.......... profit 52.5 less than zero 5.81% 1972.......... profit 69.5 less than zero 5.82% 1973.......... profit 73.3 less than zero 7.27% 1974.......... 7.36 79.1 9.30% 8.13% 1975.......... 11.35 87.6 12.96% 8.03% 1976.......... profit 102.6 less than zero 7.30% 1977.......... profit 139.0 less than zero 7.97% 1978.......... profit 190.4 less than zero 8.93% 1979.......... profit 227.3 less than zero 10.08% 1980.......... profit 237.0 less than zero 11.94% 1981.......... profit 228.4 less than zero 13.61% 1982.......... 21.56 220.6 9.77% 10.64% 1983.......... 33.87 231.3 14.64% 11.84% 1984.......... 48.06 253.2 18.98% 11.58% 1985.......... 44.23 390.2 11.34% 9.34% 1986.......... 55.84 797.5 7.00% 7.60% 1987.......... 55.43 1,266.7 4.38% 8.95% 1988.......... 11.08 1,497.7 0.74% 9.00% 1989.......... 24.40 1,541.3 1.58% 7.97% 1990.......... 26.65 1,637.3 1.63% 8.24% 1991.......... 119.59 1,895.0 6.31% 7.40% 1992.......... 108.96 2,290.4 4.76% 7.39% 1993.......... profit 2,624.7 less than zero 6.35% 1994.......... profit 3,056.6 less than zero 7.88% 1995.......... profit 3,607.2 less than zero 5.95% 1996.......... profit 6,702.0 less than zero 6.64%
自 1967 年我们进军保险业以来,浮存金以 22.3% 的年复合增长率增长。多数年份里,我们的资金成本甚至低于零。这种获取“免费”资金的渠道,极大地推动了伯克希尔的业绩表现。此外,收购 GEICO 显著提升了我们持续获取越来越多“免费”资金的可能性。
Since 1967, when we entered the insurance business, our float has grown at an annual compounded rate of 22.3%. In more years than not, our cost of funds has been less than nothing. This access to "free" money has boosted Berkshire's performance in a major way. Moreover, our acquisition of GEICO materially increases the probability that we can continue to obtain "free" funds in increasing amounts.
巨灾再保险
Super-Cat Insurance
和过去三年一样,我们再次强调,伯克希尔报告的良好业绩部分源于我们的巨灾再保险业务碰上了一个幸运的年份。这项业务中,我们出售保单给保险公司和再保险公司,它们购买这些保单是为了防范巨灾风险带来的冲击。由于真正的大灾难属于罕见事件,我们的巨灾再保险业务在多数年份预计会显示出可观的利润——但偶尔也会录得巨额亏损。换句话说,我们巨灾再保险业务的吸引力需要很多年才能衡量。然而,你必须明白的是,巨灾再保险业务出现一个极其糟糕的年份不是一种可能性——而是必然性。唯一的问题是它什么时候到来。
As in the past three years, we once again stress that the good results we are reporting for Berkshire stem in part from our super-cat business having a lucky year. In this operation, we sell policies that insurance and reinsurance companies buy to protect themselves from the effects of mega-catastrophes. Since truly major catastrophes are rare occurrences, our super-cat business can be expected to show large profits in most years - and to record a huge loss occasionally. In other words, the attractiveness of our super-cat business will take a great many years to measure. What you must understand, however, is that a truly terrible year in the super-cat business is not a possibility - it's a certainty. The only question is when it will come.
我特别强调这一点,是因为不希望你在听说某场大灾难让我们损失惨重时,惊慌失措,抛售伯克希尔的股票。如果你有这样的倾向,那现在就不该持有伯克希尔,同样,如果股市暴跌会吓得你卖出,那你压根就不该碰股票。因为听到“吓人”的消息就卖掉好生意,通常是个糟糕的决定。(罗伯特·伍德拉夫——这位用几十年时间打造可口可乐的商业天才,也是公司的大股东——曾被问起什么时候才是卖出可口可乐股票的好时机。伍德拉夫回答得干脆:“我不知道,我从来没卖过一股。”)
I emphasize this lugubrious point because I would not want you to panic and sell your Berkshire stock upon hearing that some large catastrophe had cost us a significant amount. If you would tend to react that way, you should not own Berkshire shares now, just as you should entirely avoid owning stocks if a crashing market would lead you to panic and sell. Selling fine businesses on "scary" news is usually a bad decision. (Robert Woodruff, the business genius who built Coca-Cola over many decades and who owned a huge position in the company, was once asked when it might be a good time to sell Coke stock. Woodruff had a simple answer: "I don't know. I've never sold any.")
在我们的巨灾再保险业务中,客户是那些面临重大盈利波动、希望降低这种波动的保险公司。我们出售的产品——以我们认为合适的价格——是愿意将这种波动转移到我们自己账上的意愿。伯克希尔的盈利起伏不定,我们毫不在意:查理和我宁愿长期获得不平稳的 15% 回报,也不愿要平稳的 12%。(毕竟,我们的盈利每天都在剧烈波动——凭什么要求地球绕太阳一周时盈利也要平稳?)不过,只有当股东/合伙人也能接受波动时,我们才能心安理得地持有这种想法,这也是我们反复提醒的原因。
In our super-cat operation, our customers are insurers that are exposed to major earnings volatility and that wish to reduce it. The product we sell - for what we hope is an appropriate price - is our willingness to shift that volatility to our own books. Gyrations in Berkshire's earnings don't bother us in the least: Charlie and I would much rather earn a lumpy 15% over time than a smooth 12%. (After all, our earnings swing wildly on a daily and weekly basis - why should we demand that smoothness accompany each orbit that the earth makes of the sun?) We are most comfortable with that thinking, however, when we have shareholder/partners who can also accept volatility, and that's why we regularly repeat our cautions.
1996 年,我们接下了一些重大的巨灾再保险风险。年中,我们与好事达保险公司签订了一份承保佛罗里达飓风的合同,尽管没有确凿的记录能证明这一点,但我们相信,这当时是单一公司自留账户所承担过的最大单一灾难风险。然而,到了年底,我们又为加州地震管理局签下了一份保单,该保单于 1997 年 4 月 1 日生效,使我们面临的潜在损失比佛罗里达合同下的风险高出两倍多。我们再次将全部风险自留。尽管这些承保规模庞大,但伯克希尔在真正的大巨灾中税后“最坏情况”损失可能不超过 6 亿美元,这低于我们账面价值的 3%,也低于我们市值的 1.5%。要更直观地看待这一风险敞口,请看第 2 页的表格,并注意证券市场给我们带来的波动性要大得多。
We took on some major super-cat exposures during 1996. At mid-year we wrote a contract with Allstate that covers Florida hurricanes, and though there are no definitive records that would allow us to prove this point, we believe that to have then been the largest single catastrophe risk ever assumed by one company for its own account. Later in the year, however, we wrote a policy for the California Earthquake Authority that goes into effect on April 1, 1997, and that exposes us to a loss more than twice that possible under the Florida contract. Again we retained all the risk for our own account. Large as these coverages are, Berkshire's after-tax "worst-case" loss from a true mega-catastrophe is probably no more than $600 million, which is less than 3% of our book value and 1.5% of our market value. To gain some perspective on this exposure, look at the table on page 2 and note the much greater volatility that security markets have delivered us.
在巨灾再保险业务中,我们拥有三大竞争优势。首先,向我们购买再保险的客户清楚,无论形势多么恶劣,我们都有能力且有意愿履行赔付。若真发生一场灾难性的巨灾,随之而来的金融恐慌并非不可能。一旦如此,一些声誉良好的再保险公司可能在客户面临极端需求的关键时刻,难以支付赔款。事实上,我们从不“转嫁”部分承保风险的其中一个原因,正是我们对灾难降临时能否从他人处收回款项存有疑虑。而一旦由伯克希尔承诺,被保险人便能确信他们能迅速获得赔付。
In the super-cat business, we have three major competitive advantages. First, the parties buying reinsurance from us know that we both can and will pay under the most adverse of circumstances. Were a truly cataclysmic disaster to occur, it is not impossible that a financial panic would quickly follow. If that happened, there could well be respected reinsurers that would have difficulty paying at just the moment that their clients faced extraordinary needs. Indeed, one reason we never "lay off" part of the risks we insure is that we have reservations about our ability to collect from others when disaster strikes. When it's Berkshire promising, insureds know with certainty that they can collect promptly.
第二个优势——与前一个有些相关——微妙却重要。巨灾发生后,保险公司即使对保障的需求格外迫切,也可能很难获得再保险。届时,伯克希尔无疑会拥有相当充裕的承保能力——但自然是我们长期合作的客户享有优先使用权。这一商业现实让全球大型保险公司和再保险公司认识到与我们做生意的可取之处。事实上,我们目前正从一些再保险公司收取可观的“备用”费用,它们不过是锁定在市场收紧时从我们这里获得保障的能力。
Our second advantage - somewhat related - is subtle but important. After a mega-catastrophe, insurers might well find it difficult to obtain reinsurance even though their need for coverage would then be particularly great. At such a time, Berkshire would without question have very substantial capacity available - but it will naturally be our long-standing clients that have first call on it. That business reality has made major insurers and reinsurers throughout the world realize the desirability of doing business with us. Indeed, we are currently getting sizable "stand- by" fees from reinsurers that are simply nailing down their ability to get coverage from us should the market tighten.
我们最后一个竞争优势在于,能够提供行业里独一无二、无人能及的巨额美元保障。寻求巨额保障的保险公司都知道,一个电话打给伯克希尔,就能立刻得到确定无疑的报价。
Our final competitive advantage is that we can provide dollar coverages of a size neither matched nor approached elsewhere in the industry. Insurers looking for huge covers know that a single call to Berkshire will produce a firm and immediate offering.
关于我们面临的加州地震风险——这是我们最大的风险——的一些事实,似乎有必要在此说明。1994 年的北岭地震让保险公司承担的房主损失,远远超出了电脑模型预先告知他们的预期。然而,那次地震的强度与加州“最坏情况”的可能性相比,还算温和。可以理解的是,保险公司变得——咳咳——惊慌失措,开始考虑将地震险从他们的房主保单中撤出。
A few facts about our exposure to California earthquakes - our largest risk - seem in order. The Northridge quake of 1994 laid homeowners' losses on insurers that greatly exceeded what computer models had told them to expect. Yet the intensity of that quake was mild compared to the "worst- case" possibility for California. Understandably, insurers became - ahem - shaken and started contemplating a retreat from writing earthquake coverage into their homeowners' policies.
加利福尼亚州保险专员查克·奎肯布什设计了一种新的住宅地震险,由州政府赞助的保险公司——加州地震局承保,回应可谓深思熟虑。这家机构于 1996 年 12 月 1 日投入运营,需要多层再保险保障——这正是我们参与的机会。伯克希尔的保障层约为 10 亿美元,若该机构在截至 2001 年 3 月 31 日止期间的总损失超过约 50 亿美元,这笔资金便将启用。(媒体最初报道的数字更大,但那些数字只有在加州所有保险公司都加入该安排时才适用;事实上只有 72% 的公司参与。)
In a thoughtful response, Chuck Quackenbush, California's insurance commissioner, designed a new residential earthquake policy to be written by a state-sponsored insurer, The California Earthquake Authority. This entity, which went into operation on December 1, 1996, needed large layers of reinsurance - and that's where we came in. Berkshire's layer of approximately $1 billion will be called upon if the Authority's aggregate losses in the period ending March 31, 2001 exceed about $5 billion. (The press originally reported larger figures, but these would have applied only if all California insurers had entered into the arrangement; instead only 72% signed up.)
那我们在这份保单期限内真要赔钱的概率究竟有多大?我们不知道——也不认为计算机模型能帮上忙,因为我们觉得它们预测出的那种精确度纯属幻觉。事实上,这类模型会让决策者陷入虚假的安全感,从而更有可能犯下真正致命的错误。保险和投资领域里,我们已经见过这样的灾难。看看“投资组合保险”吧,它在 1987 年市场崩盘中的破坏性影响,曾让一位刻薄人士评论说,该跳楼的其实应该是那些计算机。
So what are the true odds of our having to make a payout during the policy's term? We don't know - nor do we think computer models will help us, since we believe the precision they project is a chimera. In fact, such models can lull decision-makers into a false sense of security and thereby increase their chances of making a really huge mistake. We've already seen such debacles in both insurance and investments. Witness "portfolio insurance," whose destructive effects in the 1987 market crash led one wag to observe that it was the computers that should have been jumping out of windows.
即使评估风险无法做到尽善尽美,保险公司仍可以理性承保。毕竟,你不必知道一个人确切的年龄,也能判断他已到投票年龄;不必知道他的精确体重,也知道他需要节食。在保险业,必须牢记几乎所有的意外都是坏事,基于这一点,我们尽量为巨灾再保险定价,使总保费的约 90% 最终用于赔付损失和费用。随着时间的推移,我们会发现自己的定价有多明智,但这不会很快见分晓。巨灾再保险业务和投资业务一样,往往需要很长时间才能判断你是否真的懂行。
Even if perfection in assessing risks is unattainable, insurers can underwrite sensibly. After all, you need not know a man's precise age to know that he is old enough to vote nor know his exact weight to recognize his need to diet. In insurance, it is essential to remember that virtually all surprises are unpleasant, and with that in mind we try to price our super-cat exposures so that about 90% of total premiums end up being eventually paid out in losses and expenses. Over time, we will find out how smart our pricing has been, but that will not be quickly. The super- cat business is just like the investment business in that it often takes a long time to find out whether you knew what you were doing.
不过,我可以肯定地说,全球范围内经营我们巨灾再保险业务的最佳人选就在我们身边:阿吉特·贾恩,他对伯克希尔的价值堪称无可估量。再保险领域里,灾难性的项目比比皆是。我深知这一点,因为上世纪 70 年代我自己就亲身涉足过太多这样的项目,也因为 GEICO 手头有一大批早年间(80 年代初)签下的愚蠢合同,构成了庞大的遗留业务组合——尽管当时它的管理层也算得力。我可以向你保证,阿吉特绝不会重蹈这类覆辙。
What I can state with certainty, however, is that we have the best person in the world to run our super-cat business: Ajit Jain, whose value to Berkshire is simply enormous. In the reinsurance field, disastrous propositions abound. I know that because I personally embraced all too many of these in the 1970s and also because GEICO has a large runoff portfolio made up of foolish contracts written in the early-1980s, able though its then-management was. Ajit, I can assure you, won't make mistakes of this type.
我曾提到,一场巨型灾难可能引发金融市场的大灾难,这种可能性虽小但并非天方夜谭。若灾难降临,比如加州发生足以触达我们承保范围的大地震,我们几乎肯定还会在其他方面受损。例如,喜诗糖果、富国银行和房地美可能遭受重创。但总体而言,我们能够应对这些风险的总和。
I have mentioned that a mega-catastrophe might cause a catastrophe in the financial markets, a possibility that is unlikely but not far-fetched. Were the catastrophe a quake in California of sufficient magnitude to tap our coverage, we would almost certainly be damaged in other ways as well. For example, See's, Wells Fargo and Freddie Mac could be hit hard. All in all, though, we can handle this aggregation of exposures.
在这方面,和其他方面一样,我们努力“逆向工程”伯克希尔的未来,铭记查理的箴言:“我只想知道自己会死在哪里,这样我就永远不会去那儿。”(逆向思考确实管用:试着倒着唱乡村西部歌曲,你很快就能找回你的房子、你的车和你的妻子。)如果我们无法容忍某种可能的后果,哪怕它极其遥远,我们也会避免种下它的种子。这就是为什么我们不大量举债,也是为什么我们确保巨灾再保险业务的损失,尽管最大数额听起来很大,也不会给伯克希尔的内在价值造成重大损伤。
In this respect, as in others, we try to "reverse engineer" our future at Berkshire, bearing in mind Charlie's dictum: "All I want to know is where I'm going to die so I'll never go there." (Inverting really works: Try singing country western songs backwards and you will quickly regain your house, your car and your wife.) If we can't tolerate a possible consequence, remote though it may be, we steer clear of planting its seeds. That is why we don't borrow big amounts and why we make sure that our super-cat business losses, large though the maximums may sound, will not put a major dent in Berkshire's intrinsic value.
保险业务——GEICO 及其他主营运营
Insurance - GEICO and Other Primary Operations
去年初我们全面收购 GEICO 时,期望值很高,而实际表现超出了所有预期。无论从业务角度还是从个人角度看,都是如此:GEICO 的运营主管托尼·奈斯利既是出色的业务管理者,又是一位令人愉快的合作伙伴。几乎在任何条件下,GEICO 都会是一笔极其宝贵的资产。在托尼掌舵下,这家公司的业绩水准达到了几年前它自己都认为不可能企及的高度。
When we moved to total ownership of GEICO early last year, our expectations were high - and they are all being exceeded. That is true from both a business and personal perspective: GEICO's operating chief, Tony Nicely, is a superb business manager and a delight to work with. Under almost any conditions, GEICO would be an exceptionally valuable asset. With Tony at the helm, it is reaching levels of performance that the organization would only a few years ago have thought impossible.
GEICO 的成功没什么玄妙的:公司的竞争优势直接来自其低成本运营商的地位。低成本带来低价格,低价格吸引并留住优质投保人。当投保人把 GEICO 推荐给朋友时,这个良性循环的最后一环便得以闭合。GEICO 每年收到超过 100 万条推荐,这些推荐带来的新业务占我们新业务总量的一半以上,这一优势让我们在获取成本上省下巨资——也让我们的成本更低。
There's nothing esoteric about GEICO's success: The company's competitive strength flows directly from its position as a low-cost operator. Low costs permit low prices, and low prices attract and retain good policyholders. The final segment of a virtuous circle is drawn when policyholders recommend us to their friends. GEICO gets more than one million referrals annually and these produce more than half of our new business, an advantage that gives us enormous savings in acquisition expenses - and that makes our costs still lower.
1996 年,这一公式在 GEICO 身上成效显著:其自愿汽车保单数量增长了 10%。而在过去 20 年中,公司单年最佳增长率也仅为 8%,且只有一年达到过这一水平。更令人欣喜的是,自愿保单的增长在年内持续加速,主要得益于非标准市场的显著增长,这一领域此前在 GEICO 一直开发不足。我在此着重提及自愿保单,因为从指定风险池等渠道获得的非自愿业务并无利润可言,该领域的增长最不受欢迎。
This formula worked in spades for GEICO in 1996: Its voluntary auto policy count grew 10%. During the previous 20 years, the company's best- ever growth for a year had been 8%, a rate achieved only once. Better yet, the growth in voluntary policies accelerated during the year, led by major gains in the nonstandard market, which has been an underdeveloped area at GEICO. I focus here on voluntary policies because the involuntary business we get from assigned risk pools and the like is unprofitable. Growth in that sector is most unwelcome.
GEICO 的增长如果未能带来合理的承保利润,那就毫无意义。在这方面,好消息也不少:去年我们达成了承保目标,甚至超额完成。然而,我们的目标并非扩大利润率,而是增大我们提供给客户的价格优势。基于这一策略,我们相信 1997 年的增长速度将轻松超越去年。
GEICO's growth would mean nothing if it did not produce reasonable underwriting profits. Here, too, the news is good: Last year we hit our underwriting targets and then some. Our goal, however, is not to widen our profit margin but rather to enlarge the price advantage we offer customers. Given that strategy, we believe that 1997's growth will easily top that of last year.
我们预计直复营销市场将迎来新的竞争者,部分现有对手也可能向其他地区扩张。尽管如此,我们所拥有的规模经济应当能让我们维持甚至加宽经济城堡周围的防护性护城河。在市场份额渗透率高的地区,我们的成本控制最为出色。随着保单数量增长,渗透率同步提升,我们预期成本将大幅下降。GEICO 的可持续成本优势,正是 1951 年吸引我的地方——那时整个公司市值仅 700 万美元。这也是为何去年伯克希尔愿意支付 23 亿美元,收购当时尚未持有的 49% 股份。
We expect new competitors to enter the direct-response market, and some of our existing competitors are likely to expand geographically. Nonetheless, the economies of scale we enjoy should allow us to maintain or even widen the protective moat surrounding our economic castle. We do best on costs in geographical areas in which we enjoy high market penetration. As our policy count grows, concurrently delivering gains in penetration, we expect to drive costs materially lower. GEICO's sustainable cost advantage is what attracted me to the company way back in 1951, when the entire business was valued at $7 million. It is also why I felt Berkshire should pay $2.3 billion last year for the 49% of the company that we didn't then own.
要让一家优秀企业发挥最大效益,离不开卓越的管理和专注。我们很幸运,托尼就是一位经营才能出众、业务重心从未偏移的经理人。为了让他这种专注精神渗透到 GEICO 整个机构,我们设计了一套目标明确的薪酬计划——并购完成后,我们立刻付诸实施。
Maximizing the results of a wonderful business requires management and focus. Lucky for us, we have in Tony a superb manager whose business focus never wavers. Wanting also to get the entire GEICO organization concentrating as he does, we needed a compensation plan that was itself sharply focused - and immediately after our purchase, we put one in.
如今,从托尼开始,几十位高管的奖金只取决于两个关键指标:一是自愿汽车保单的增长,二是“成熟”汽车业务(即在账记录超过一年的保单)的承保盈利能力。此外,我们还用同样的标准来计算公司利润分享计划的年度缴款。GEICO 的每个人都知道什么才是关键。
Today, the bonuses received by dozens of top executives, starting with Tony, are based upon only two key variables: (1) growth in voluntary auto policies and (2) underwriting profitability on "seasoned" auto business (meaning policies that have been on the books for more than one year). In addition, we use the same yardsticks to calculate the annual contribution to the company's profit-sharing plan. Everyone at GEICO knows what counts.
GEICO 的方案体现了伯克希尔的激励薪酬原则:目标应(1)契合具体经营业务的经济特征;(2)性质简单,实现程度易于衡量;(3)与参与者的日常工作直接相关。作为推论,我们回避“彩票式”安排,比如伯克希尔股票的期权,其最终价值——可能从零到巨大——完全不受我们希望影响其行为的那个人控制。在我们看来,产生变幻莫测回报的体系不仅对所有者来说浪费,实际上还可能削弱我们所看重的管理者身上的专注行为。
The GEICO plan exemplifies Berkshire's incentive compensation principles: Goals should be (1) tailored to the economics of the specific operating business; (2) simple in character so that the degree to which they are being realized can be easily measured; and (3) directly related to the daily activities of plan participants. As a corollary, we shun "lottery ticket" arrangements, such as options on Berkshire shares, whose ultimate value - which could range from zero to huge - is totally out of the control of the person whose behavior we would like to affect. In our view, a system that produces quixotic payoffs will not only be wasteful for owners but may actually discourage the focused behavior we value in managers.
每个季度,GEICO 全部 9000 名员工都能看到决定利润分享计划贡献额的结果。1996 年,他们享受了这份体验,因为该计划实际上超出了年初设定的图表范围。连我都知道这个问题的答案:扩大图表。最终,这些结果促成了创纪录的 16.9%(4000 万美元)贡献额,而此前五年同类计划的平均贡献率不到 10%。此外,在伯克希尔,我们从不因业绩出色而提高门槛。如果 GEICO 的表现持续改善,我们会乐此不疲地绘制更大的图表。
Every quarter, all 9,000 GEICO associates can see the results that determine our profit-sharing plan contribution. In 1996, they enjoyed the experience because the plan literally went off the chart that had been constructed at the start of the year. Even I knew the answer to that problem: Enlarge the chart. Ultimately, the results called for a record contribution of 16.9% ($40 million), compared to a five-year average of less than 10% for the comparable plans previously in effect. Furthermore, at Berkshire, we never greet good work by raising the bar. If GEICO's performance continues to improve, we will happily keep on making larger charts.
卢·辛普森继续以出色的方式管理 GEICO 的资金:去年,他投资组合中的股票跑赢标普 500 指数 6.2 个百分点。在卢负责的 GEICO 业务部分,我们再次将薪酬与业绩挂钩——但挂钩的是四年期的投资业绩,而不是承保结果,也不是 GEICO 整体的表现。我们认为,如果保险公司的一项业务(承保或投资)干得极为出色,却可能被另一项的糟糕表现完全抵消,那么按公司整体业绩发放奖金就是愚蠢之举。你在伯克希尔打出 0.350 的打击率,就算全队其他人只有 0.200,你也可以放心,报酬会配得上你的成绩。不过在卢和托尼身上,我们很幸运,两个关键位置上都拥有名人堂级别的选手。
Lou Simpson continues to manage GEICO's money in an outstanding manner: Last year, the equities in his portfolio outdid the S&P 500 by 6.2 percentage points. In Lou's part of GEICO's operation, we again tie compensation to performance - but to investment performance over a four- year period, not to underwriting results nor to the performance of GEICO as a whole. We think it foolish for an insurance company to pay bonuses that are tied to overall corporate results when great work on one side of the business - underwriting or investment - could conceivably be completely neutralized by bad work on the other. If you bat .350 at Berkshire, you can be sure you will get paid commensurately even if the rest of the team bats .200. In Lou and Tony, however, we are lucky to have Hall-of-Famers in both key positions.
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当然,虽然这些业务规模远不及 GEICO,但我们其他主要保险业务去年同样成绩斐然。国民赔偿公司的传统业务综合成本率为 74.2,并且一如既往地,相较于保费规模创造了大量浮存金。过去三年,由唐·沃斯特管理的这一业务板块,平均综合成本率为 83.0。我们的本州业务由罗德·埃尔德里德负责,尽管承担了向新州扩张的费用,综合成本率仍达到 87.1。罗德管理的三年平均综合成本率令人惊叹,仅为 83.2。伯克希尔在加利福尼亚州由布拉德·金斯特勒掌管的工伤保险业务,现已扩展至其他六个州,即便扩张成本不菲,依旧实现了优异的承保利润。最后,中央州赔偿公司的约翰·凯泽在承保端创下保费收入新纪录,同时实现了良好的收益。总体来看,我们规模较小的保险业务(现包括堪萨斯银行家担保公司)的承保记录几乎无行业能及。唐、罗德、布拉德和约翰都为伯克希尔创造了显著价值,我们相信未来还有更多潜力可挖。
Though they are, of course, smaller than GEICO, our other primary insurance operations turned in equally stunning results last year. National Indemnity's traditional business had a combined ratio of 74.2 and, as usual, developed a large amount of float compared to premium volume. Over the last three years, this segment of our business, run by Don Wurster, has had an average combined ratio of 83.0. Our homestate operation, managed by Rod Eldred, recorded a combined ratio of 87.1 even though it absorbed the expenses of expanding to new states. Rod's three- year combined ratio is an amazing 83.2. Berkshire's workers' compensation business, run out of California by Brad Kinstler, has now moved into six other states and, despite the costs of that expansion, again achieved an excellent underwriting profit. Finally, John Kizer, at Central States Indemnity, set new records for premium volume while generating good earnings from underwriting. In aggregate, our smaller insurance operations (now including Kansas Bankers Surety) have an underwriting record virtually unmatched in the industry. Don, Rod, Brad and John have all created significant value for Berkshire, and we believe there is more to come.
Taxes
Taxes
1961 年,肯尼迪总统说,我们不应该问国家能为我们做什么,而应该问我们能为国家做什么。去年,我们决定尝试一下他的建议——谁说开口问问没坏处呢?我们被告知要向美国财政部缴纳 8.6 亿美元的所得税。
In 1961, President Kennedy said that we should ask not what our country can do for us, but rather ask what we can do for our country. Last year we decided to give his suggestion a try - and who says it never hurts to ask? We were told to mail $860 million in income taxes to the U.S. Treasury.
说一下这个数字的背景:如果这笔钱是由另外 2000 名纳税人平均缴纳,那么 1996 年政府就能实现预算平衡,无需从其他任何美国人身上收取一分钱税款,无论是所得税、社会保障税还是其他税种。伯克希尔的股东们确实可以说:“我已经在办公室捐过了。”
Here's a little perspective on that figure: If an equal amount had been paid by only 2,000 other taxpayers, the government would have had a balanced budget in 1996 without needing a dime of taxes - income or Social Security or what have you - from any other American. Berkshire shareholders can truly say, "I gave at the office."
查理和我认为,伯克希尔缴纳大额税款是完全应当的。我们以此对社会福祉所做的贡献,至多只与社会对我们的贡献相当。伯克希尔在美国繁荣昌盛,在其他任何地方都不会如此。
Charlie and I believe that large tax payments by Berkshire are entirely fitting. The contribution we thus make to society's well-being is at most only proportional to its contribution to ours. Berkshire prospers in America as it would nowhere else.
报告收益的来源
Sources of Reported Earnings
下表展示了伯克希尔报告利润的主要来源。在此呈现中,购买会计调整并未分配到其对应的具体业务,而是汇总后单独列出。这一做法能让您看到,若我们未曾收购这些业务,它们本会报告的利润情况。基于第 65 和 66 页讨论的原因,我们认为这种呈现方式对投资者和管理者而言,比采用公认会计准则(GAAP)逐项业务摊销收购溢价的方法更为实用。当然,表中显示的利润总额与审计后财务报表中的 GAAP 总额完全一致。
The table that follows shows the main sources of Berkshire's reported earnings. In this presentation, purchase-accounting adjustments are not assigned to the specific businesses to which they apply, but are instead aggregated and shown separately. This procedure lets you view the earnings of our businesses as they would have been reported had we not purchased them. For the reasons discussed on pages 65 and 66, this form of presentation seems to us to be more useful to investors and managers than one utilizing generally-accepted accounting principles (GAAP), which require purchase-premiums to be charged off business-by-business. The total earnings we show in the table are, of course, identical to the GAAP total in our audited financial statements.
(in millions)
(in millions)
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| 税前利润 | 伯克希尔所占净利润份额(税后及扣除少数股东权益后) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 1995(1) | 1996 | 1995(1) | |
| 经营利润: | ||||
| 保险集团: | ||||
| 承保 | 2.221 亿美元 | 2050 万美元 | 1.428 亿美元 | 1130 万美元 |
| 净投资收益 | 7.262 亿美元 | 5.016 亿美元 | 5.931 亿美元 | 4.177 亿美元 |
| 《布法罗新闻》 | 5040 万美元 | 4680 万美元 | 2950 万美元 | 2730 万美元 |
| 费奇海默 | 1730 万美元 | 1690 万美元 | 930 万美元 | 880 万美元 |
| 金融业务 | 2310 万美元 | 2080 万美元 | 1490 万美元 | 1260 万美元 |
| 家居用品 | 4380 万美元 | 2970 万美元(2) | 2480 万美元 | 1670 万美元(2) |
| 珠宝 | 2780 万美元 | 3390 万美元(3) | 1610 万美元 | 1910 万美元(3) |
| 柯比 | 5850 万美元 | 5020 万美元 | 3990 万美元 | 3210 万美元 |
| 斯科特-费泽制造集团 | 5060 万美元 | 3410 万美元 | 3220 万美元 | 2120 万美元 |
| 喜诗糖果 | 5190 万美元 | 5020 万美元 | 3080 万美元 | 2980 万美元 |
| 鞋业集团 | 6160 万美元 | 5840 万美元 | 4100 万美元 | 3750 万美元 |
| 世界图书 | 1260 万美元 | 880 万美元 | 950 万美元 | 700 万美元 |
| 购买法会计调整 | -7570 万美元 | -2700 万美元 | -7050 万美元 | -2340 万美元 |
| 利息支出(4) | -9430 万美元 | -5600 万美元 | -5660 万美元 | -3490 万美元 |
| 股东指定捐款 | -1330 万美元 | -1160 万美元 | -850 万美元 | -700 万美元 |
| 其他 | 5880 万美元 | 3740 万美元 | 3480 万美元 | 2440 万美元 |
| 经营利润 | 12.214 亿美元 | 8.147 亿美元 | 8.831 亿美元 | 6.002 亿美元 |
| 证券出售 | 24.845 亿美元 | 1.941 亿美元 | 16.055 亿美元 | 1.25 亿美元 |
| 所有实体合计利润 | 37.059 亿美元 | 10.088 亿美元 | 24.886 亿美元 | 7.252 亿美元 |
Berkshire's Share
of Net Earnings
(after taxes and
Pre-tax Earnings minority interests)
---------------- -------------------
1996 1995(1) 1996 1995(1)
------- -------- ------- -------
Operating Earnings:
Insurance Group:
Underwriting.....................$ 222.1 $ 20.5 $ 142.8 $ 11.3
Net Investment Income............ 726.2 501.6 593.1 417.7
Buffalo News........................... 50.4 46.8 29.5 27.3
Fechheimer............................. 17.3 16.9 9.3 8.8
Finance Businesses..................... 23.1 20.8 14.9 12.6
Home Furnishings....................... 43.8 29.7(2) 24.8 16.7(2)
Jewelry................................ 27.8 33.9(3) 16.1 19.1(3)
Kirby.................................. 58.5 50.2 39.9 32.1
Scott Fetzer Manufacturing Group....... 50.6 34.1 32.2 21.2
See's Candies.......................... 51.9 50.2 30.8 29.8
Shoe Group............................. 61.6 58.4 41.0 37.5
World Book............................. 12.6 8.8 9.5 7.0
Purchase-Accounting Adjustments........ (75.7) (27.0) (70.5) (23.4)
Interest Expense(4).................... (94.3) (56.0) (56.6) (34.9)
Shareholder-Designated Contributions... (13.3) (11.6) (8.5) (7.0)
Other.................................. 58.8 37.4 34.8 24.4
------- -------- -------- -------
Operating Earnings.......................1,221.4 814.7 883.1 600.2
Sales of Securities......................2,484.5 194.1 1,605.5 125.0
------- -------- -------- -------
Total Earnings - All Entities...........$3,705.9 $1,008.8 $2,488.6 $ 725.2
======= ======== ======== =======(1)GEICO 相关重述之前的数据。(3)自 1995 年 4 月 30 日起包含赫尔兹伯格钻石。(2)自 1995 年 6 月 29 日起包含 R.C. 威利家居。(4)不含金融业务的利息支出。
(1) Before the GEICO-related restatement. (3) Includes Helzberg's from April 30, 1995. (2) Includes R.C. Willey from June 29, 1995. (4) Excludes interest expense of Finance Businesses.
去年这一节里,我讨论了三个盈利下滑的业务——《布法罗新闻》、鞋业集团和世界图书公司。很高兴地告诉大家,这三家公司在 1996 年都实现了盈利增长。
In this section last year, I discussed three businesses that reported a decline in earnings - Buffalo News, Shoe Group and World Book. All, I'm happy to say, recorded gains in 1996.
然而,世界图书公司发现前路并非坦途:尽管该业务转型为国内唯一的百科全书直营商(《大英百科全书》已于去年退出该领域),其销量仍出现下滑。此外,世界图书公司在新推出的光盘产品上投入巨资,该产品直到 1997 年初与 IBM 合作推出后才开始产生收入。面对这些因素,若非世界图书公司改革分销渠道、削减总部开支,从而大幅降低固定成本,其利润恐将荡然无存。总体来看,公司已在确保其长期生存能力方面取得长足进展,无论在纸质出版还是电子市场均如此。
World Book, however, did not find it easy: Despite the operation's new status as the only direct-seller of encyclopedias in the country (Encyclopedia Britannica exited the field last year), its unit volume fell. Additionally, World Book spent heavily on a new CD-ROM product that began to take in revenues only in early 1997, when it was launched in association with IBM. In the face of these factors, earnings would have evaporated had World Book not revamped distribution methods and cut overhead at headquarters, thereby dramatically reducing its fixed costs. Overall, the company has gone a long way toward assuring its long-term viability in both the print and electronic marketplaces.
去年唯一让我们失望的是珠宝业务:博尔斯海姆珠宝表现尚可,但赫尔兹伯格钻石的盈利出现大幅下滑。其费用水平原本根据近年来同店销售额的显著增长来设定,但销售却停滞不前,导致利润率下降。赫尔兹伯格的首席执行官杰夫·科门特正以果断措施解决费用问题,预计公司盈利将在 1997 年有所改善。
Our only disappointment last year was in jewelry: Borsheim's did fine, but Helzberg's suffered a material decline in earnings. Its expense levels had been geared to a sizable increase in same-store sales, consistent with the gains achieved in recent years. When sales were instead flat, profit margins fell. Jeff Comment, CEO of Helzberg's, is addressing the expense problem in a decisive manner, and the company's earnings should improve in 1997.
总体来看,我们的运营业务依旧表现出色,远超行业常规水平。为此,查理和我感谢各位经理。若您在股东大会上见到他们,也请一并致谢。
Overall, our operating businesses continue to perform exceptionally, far outdoing their industry norms. For this, Charlie and I thank our managers. If you should see any of them at the Annual Meeting, add your thanks as well.
关于我们各项业务的更多信息,见第 36 至 46 页,你还可以在那里找到按公认会计原则(GAAP)口径报告的部门经营利润。此外,在第 51 至 57 页,我们按非 GAAP 口径将伯克希尔的财务数据重新划分为四个板块,这种呈现方式与查理和我对公司的思考方式一致。我们的目的是向你提供我们希望你提供给我们的财务信息,假如我们的位置互换的话。
More information about our various businesses is given on pages 36- 46, where you will also find our segment earnings reported on a GAAP basis. In addition, on pages 51-57, we have rearranged Berkshire's financial data into four segments on a non-GAAP basis, a presentation that corresponds to the way Charlie and I think about the company. Our intent is to supply you with the financial information that we would wish you to give us if our positions were reversed.
“透视盈余”
"Look-Through" Earnings
账面利润衡量伯克希尔的经营进展并不靠谱,部分原因在于前面那张表格里的数字,只算进了我们从被投公司拿到的股息——而这些股息,通常只占我们持股对应利润的一小部分。我们倒也不介意这种分钱方式,因为总体上,我们认为被投公司留存下来的利润,比分给我们的那部分更有价值。原因很简单:我们的被投公司常常有机会以高回报率把利润再投出去。既然如此,我们何必指望它们把利润分出来呢?
Reported earnings are a poor measure of economic progress at Berkshire, in part because the numbers shown in the table presented earlier include only the dividends we receive from investees - though these dividends typically represent only a small fraction of the earnings attributable to our ownership. Not that we mind this division of money, since on balance we regard the undistributed earnings of investees as more valuable to us than the portion paid out. The reason is simple: Our investees often have the opportunity to reinvest earnings at high rates of return. So why should we want them paid out?
不过,为了更贴近伯克希尔的经济现实,而不只看报表上的盈利数字,我们采用了“透视盈余”这个概念。按我们的算法,它包含三部分:(1)上一节提到的经营利润;(2)我们享有的主要被投资公司留存经营利润中的份额——按通用会计准则,这部分并未反映在我们的利润里;(3)如果这些被投资公司的留存收益当初是分给我们的,伯克希尔需要缴纳的税款,我们为此留出相应扣除。在计算这里的“经营利润”时,我们剔除了购买法会计调整,以及资本利得和其他重大非经常性项目。
To depict something closer to economic reality at Berkshire than reported earnings, though, we employ the concept of "look-through" earnings. As we calculate these, they consist of: (1) the operating earnings reported in the previous section, plus; (2) our share of the retained operating earnings of major investees that, under GAAP accounting, are not reflected in our profits, less; (3) an allowance for the tax that would be paid by Berkshire if these retained earnings of investees had instead been distributed to us. When tabulating "operating earnings" here, we exclude purchase-accounting adjustments as well as capital gains and other major non-recurring items.
以下是我们 1996 年的透视盈余汇总表,不过我需提醒您,这些数字只能视为大致估算,因为它们基于多项判断性决策。(这些被投资公司向我们支付的股息已包含在第 12 页列示的经营利润中,大部分归入“保险集团:净投资收益”项下。)
The following table sets forth our 1996 look-through earnings, though I warn you that the figures can be no more than approximate, since they are based on a number of judgment calls. (The dividends paid to us by these investees have been included in the operating earnings itemized on page 12, mostly under "Insurance Group: Net Investment Income.")
伯克希尔主要投资标的 年末持股比例(1) 伯克希尔应占留存经营利润(百万美元)(2) -------------------------------- ----------------------- ------------------
Berkshire's Share
of Undistributed
Berkshire's Approximate Operating Earnings
Berkshire's Major Investees Ownership at Yearend(1) (in millions)(2)
-------------------------------- ----------------------- ------------------| 公司名称 | 持股比例 | 市值(百万美元) |
|---|---|---|
| 美国运通公司 | 10.5% | 132 |
| 可口可乐公司 | 8.1% | 180 |
| 华特迪士尼公司 | 3.6% | 50 |
| 联邦家庭贷款抵押公司 | 8.4% | 77 |
| 吉列公司 | 8.6% | 73 |
| 麦当劳公司 | 4.3% | 38 |
| 《华盛顿邮报》公司 | 15.8% | 27 |
| 富国银行 | 8.0% | 84 |
American Express Company........ 10.5% $ 132 The Coca-Cola Company........... 8.1% 180 The Walt Disney Company......... 3.6% 50 Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp. 8.4% 77 The Gillette Company............ 8.6% 73 McDonald's Corporation.......... 4.3% 38 The Washington Post Company..... 15.8% 27 Wells Fargo & Company........... 8.0% 84
------
------
| 伯克希尔享有的主要被投资公司未分配利润 | 661 |
|---|---|
| 这些未分配被投资公司收益的假设税项(3) | (93) |
| 伯克希尔报告的经营利润 | 954 |
Berkshire's share of undistributed earnings of major investees.. 661 Hypothetical tax on these undistributed investee earnings(3).... (93) Reported operating earnings of Berkshire........................ 954
------
------
伯克希尔的总透视盈余为 1522 万美元
Total look-through earnings of Berkshire..................$1,522
======
======
(1)不含可分配给少数股东权益的股份(2)按年内平均持股比例计算(3)所用税率为 14%,即伯克希尔就其收到的股息所适用的税率
(1) Does not include shares allocable to minority interests (2) Calculated on average ownership for the year (3) The tax rate used is 14%, which is the rate Berkshire pays on the dividends it receives
普通股投资
Common Stock Investments
下面列出我们的普通股投资。市值超过 5 亿美元的已逐项列出。
Below we present our common stock investments. Those with a market value of more than $500 million are itemized.
| 股数 | 公司 | 成本* | 市值 |
|---|---|---|---|
| (单位:百万美元) | |||
| 49,456,900 | 美国运通公司 | 1392.7 | 2794.3 |
| 200,000,000 | 可口可乐公司 | 1298.9 | 10,525.0 |
| 24,614,214 | 华特迪士尼公司 | 577.0 | 1716.8 |
| 64,246,000 | 联邦住宅贷款抵押公司 | 333.4 | 1772.8 |
| 48,000,000 | 吉列公司 | 600.0 | 3732.0 |
| 30,156,600 | 麦当劳公司 | 1265.3 | 1368.4 |
| 1,727,765 | 《华盛顿邮报》公司 | 10.6 | 579.0 |
| 7,291,418 | 富国银行 | 497.8 | 1966.9 |
| 其他 | 1934.5 | 3295.4 | |
| 普通股合计 | 7910.2 | 27,750.6 | |
| ======= | ======== |
12/31/96
Shares Company Cost* Market
----------- --------------------------------- -------- ---------
(dollars in millions)
49,456,900 American Express Company...........$1,392.7 $ 2,794.3
200,000,000 The Coca-Cola Company.............. 1,298.9 10,525.0
24,614,214 The Walt Disney Company............ 577.0 1,716.8
64,246,000 Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp.... 333.4 1,772.8
48,000,000 The Gillette Company............... 600.0 3,732.0
30,156,600 McDonald's Corporation............. 1,265.3 1,368.4
1,727,765 The Washington Post Company........ 10.6 579.0
7,291,418 Wells Fargo & Company.............. 497.8 1,966.9
Others............................. 1,934.5 3,295.4
-------- ---------
Total Common Stocks................$7,910.2 $27,750.6
======== =========- 代表税基成本,合计比通用会计准则成本低 12 亿美元。
- Represents tax-basis cost which, in aggregate, is $1.2 billion less than GAAP cost.
我们的投资组合变化不大:继续秉持“睡着比积极行动赚得更多”的原则。
Our portfolio shows little change: We continue to make more money when snoring than when active.
按兵不动在我们看来是明智之举。无论是我们,还是大多数企业管理者,都不会因为预测美联储贴现率有微小变动,或因为某位华尔街权威人士改变了其对市场的看法,就狂热地交易那些高利润的子公司。那么,对于我们在优质企业中的少数股权,为何要采取不同的做法呢?成功投资上市公司的艺术,与成功收购子公司的艺术相差无几。在每种情况下,你只需以合理的价格,收购一家经济状况极佳、管理层能干且诚实的企业。此后,你只需监督这些品质是否得以保持。
Inactivity strikes us as intelligent behavior. Neither we nor most business managers would dream of feverishly trading highly-profitable subsidiaries because a small move in the Federal Reserve's discount rate was predicted or because some Wall Street pundit had reversed his views on the market. Why, then, should we behave differently with our minority positions in wonderful businesses? The art of investing in public companies successfully is little different from the art of successfully acquiring subsidiaries. In each case you simply want to acquire, at a sensible price, a business with excellent economics and able, honest management. Thereafter, you need only monitor whether these qualities are being preserved.
只要执行得当,这类投资策略往往会让操作者持有的少数几只证券,逐渐占据其投资组合的极大比重。假如这位投资者采取类似策略,买下若干杰出大学篮球明星未来收入的 20%,他也会得到类似的结果。其中少数人会成为 NBA 巨星,这位投资者从他们身上获得的收益会迅速主导他的版税收入。如果说,仅仅因为这些最成功的投资已经占据了投资组合的主导地位,就建议这位投资者卖掉其中一部分,那无异于建议公牛队因为迈克尔·乔丹对球队太重要而把他交易走。
When carried out capably, an investment strategy of that type will often result in its practitioner owning a few securities that will come to represent a very large portion of his portfolio. This investor would get a similar result if he followed a policy of purchasing an interest in, say, 20% of the future earnings of a number of outstanding college basketball stars. A handful of these would go on to achieve NBA stardom, and the investor's take from them would soon dominate his royalty stream. To suggest that this investor should sell off portions of his most successful investments simply because they have come to dominate his portfolio is akin to suggesting that the Bulls trade Michael Jordan because he has become so important to the team.
研究我们在子公司和普通股上的投资时,你会发现,我们偏爱那些不太可能经历重大变化的行业和企业。原因很简单:无论是买哪一种,我们都在寻找那种我们认为十年或二十年后依然会拥有巨大竞争力的生意。快速变化的行业环境或许能带来巨大的胜利机会,但它排除了我们所追求的那种确定性。
In studying the investments we have made in both subsidiary companies and common stocks, you will see that we favor businesses and industries unlikely to experience major change. The reason for that is simple: Making either type of purchase, we are searching for operations that we believe are virtually certain to possess enormous competitive strength ten or twenty years from now. A fast-changing industry environment may offer the chance for huge wins, but it precludes the certainty we seek.
需要强调的是,作为公民,查理和我欢迎变化:新思想、新产品、创新流程等,提升了我们国家的生活水平,这显然是好事。然而,作为投资者,我们对一个充满变数的行业的态度,就像对待太空探索一样:我们为这种努力鼓掌,但宁可避开那趟旅程。
I should emphasize that, as citizens, Charlie and I welcome change: Fresh ideas, new products, innovative processes and the like cause our country's standard of living to rise, and that's clearly good. As investors, however, our reaction to a fermenting industry is much like our attitude toward space exploration: We applaud the endeavor but prefer to skip the ride.
显然,所有生意都会在一定程度上发生变化。今天,喜诗糖果在诸多方面已不同于 1972 年我们收购时的模样:产品种类不同,机器设备不同,销售渠道也不同。但如今人们购买盒装巧克力的原因,以及他们选择从我们而非别家购买的原因,与 1920 年代喜诗家族创立这门生意时几乎毫无二致。而且,未来 20 年,甚至 50 年,这些购买动机也不太可能改变。
Obviously all businesses change to some extent. Today, See's is different in many ways from what it was in 1972 when we bought it: It offers a different assortment of candy, employs different machinery and sells through different distribution channels. But the reasons why people today buy boxed chocolates, and why they buy them from us rather than from someone else, are virtually unchanged from what they were in the 1920s when the See family was building the business. Moreover, these motivations are not likely to change over the next 20 years, or even 50.
我们同样在市场中寻找类似的确定性。以可口可乐为例:在罗伯托·戈伊苏埃塔的领导下,可乐产品的销售热情与创意空前高涨,他为股东创造价值的工作堪称惊人。在唐·基奥和道格·艾维斯特的辅助下,罗伯托重新审视并改善了公司的方方面面。然而,业务的基本面——支撑可口可乐竞争优势和卓越经济特性的根本素质——多年来始终如一。
We look for similar predictability in marketable securities. Take Coca-Cola: The zeal and imagination with which Coke products are sold has burgeoned under Roberto Goizueta, who has done an absolutely incredible job in creating value for his shareholders. Aided by Don Keough and Doug Ivester, Roberto has rethought and improved every aspect of the company. But the fundamentals of the business - the qualities that underlie Coke's competitive dominance and stunning economics - have remained constant through the years.
我最近翻阅了可口可乐 1896 年的年报(你大概觉得自己读书已经落后了吧!)。那时候,可口可乐虽然已经是领先的软饮料品牌,但才问世十年。不过,它未来一百年的蓝图早已画好。那一年,公司销售收入 14.8 万美元,时任总裁阿萨·坎德勒说:“我们从未懈怠,致力于向全世界传播可口可乐是所有人都能享受健康与愉悦的上佳之选。”虽然“健康”二字或许有点牵强,但我很喜欢一个事实:一个世纪后的今天,可口可乐依然沿用坎德勒的基本主题。坎德勒接着说的话,如今罗伯托也能说出口:“没有任何同类产品能如此牢固地赢得大众的青睐。”顺便提一句,那一年糖浆销量是 11.6492 万加仑,而 1996 年大约是 32 亿加仑。
I was recently studying the 1896 report of Coke (and you think that you are behind in your reading!). At that time Coke, though it was already the leading soft drink, had been around for only a decade. But its blueprint for the next 100 years was already drawn. Reporting sales of $148,000 that year, Asa Candler, the company's president, said: "We have not lagged in our efforts to go into all the world teaching that Coca-Cola is the article, par excellence, for the health and good feeling of all people." Though "health" may have been a reach, I love the fact that Coke still relies on Candler's basic theme today - a century later. Candler went on to say, just as Roberto could now, "No article of like character has ever so firmly entrenched itself in public favor." Sales of syrup that year, incidentally, were 116,492 gallons versus about 3.2 billion in 1996.
我忍不住再引一句坎德勒的话:“从今年 3 月 1 日左右起……我们雇了十名旅行推销员,通过办公室的系统通信配合,几乎覆盖了全国的销售区域。”这正是我心目中的销售团队。
I can't resist one more Candler quote: "Beginning this year about March 1st . . . we employed ten traveling salesmen by means of which, with systematic correspondence from the office, we covered almost the territory of the Union." That's my kind of sales force.
像可口可乐和吉列这样的公司,完全可以贴上“必然赢家”的标签。预测者们在估算这些公司未来十年或二十年的软饮或剃须用品业务规模时,可能会有些许分歧。我们谈论这种必然性,也并非要贬低这些公司在生产制造、分销、包装和产品创新等领域必须持续开展的关键工作。然而,说到底,任何理性的观察者——哪怕是这些公司最强劲的竞争对手,只要他们是在诚实地评估——都不会怀疑,可口可乐和吉列将在整个投资生命周期内统治全球各自的市场。事实上,它们的统治地位很可能还会加强。过去十年里,这两家公司已经大幅扩展了原本就极为庞大的市场份额,而所有迹象都表明,未来十年它们将再次上演同样的表现。
Companies such as Coca-Cola and Gillette might well be labeled "The Inevitables." Forecasters may differ a bit in their predictions of exactly how much soft drink or shaving-equipment business these companies will be doing in ten or twenty years. Nor is our talk of inevitability meant to play down the vital work that these companies must continue to carry out, in such areas as manufacturing, distribution, packaging and product innovation. In the end, however, no sensible observer - not even these companies' most vigorous competitors, assuming they are assessing the matter honestly - questions that Coke and Gillette will dominate their fields worldwide for an investment lifetime. Indeed, their dominance will probably strengthen. Both companies have significantly expanded their already huge shares of market during the past ten years, and all signs point to their repeating that performance in the next decade.
显然,许多身处高科技领域或新兴行业的公司,其百分比的增长速度会远超“必然公司”。但我宁愿笃定一个不错的结果,也不愿空怀一个辉煌的希冀。
Obviously many companies in high-tech businesses or embryonic industries will grow much faster in percentage terms than will The Inevitables. But I would rather be certain of a good result than hopeful of a great one.
当然,即便穷尽一生寻找,我和查理也只能认出少数几家“必然者”。单凭领导地位并不能带来确定性:看看几年前通用汽车、IBM 和西尔斯遭遇的冲击便知,这三家都曾长期看似不可战胜。尽管某些行业或业务线具备赋予领导者几乎无法逾越的优势的特点,往往使“最肥者生存”近乎自然法则,但大多数并非如此。因此,每一家“必然者”背后,都有数十家“假冒者”——这些公司眼下风光无限,却易受竞争攻击。考虑到成为“必然者”所需的种种条件,我和查理明白,我们永远无法凑出一组“漂亮五十”,甚至连“闪烁二十”也做不到。因此,在我们的投资组合中,除了“必然者”之外,还加入了几家“高概率者”。
Of course, Charlie and I can identify only a few Inevitables, even after a lifetime of looking for them. Leadership alone provides no certainties: Witness the shocks some years back at General Motors, IBM and Sears, all of which had enjoyed long periods of seeming invincibility. Though some industries or lines of business exhibit characteristics that endow leaders with virtually insurmountable advantages, and that tend to establish Survival of the Fattest as almost a natural law, most do not. Thus, for every Inevitable, there are dozens of Impostors, companies now riding high but vulnerable to competitive attacks. Considering what it takes to be an Inevitable, Charlie and I recognize that we will never be able to come up with a Nifty Fifty or even a Twinkling Twenty. To the Inevitables in our portfolio, therefore, we add a few "Highly Probables."
当然,即便是最优秀的企业,也可能让你付出过高的代价。这种超额支付的风险时不时地显现,就我们看来,此刻对几乎所有股票的买家来说,包括那些“必然赢家”,这种风险可能相当高。在过热的市场中购股的投资者需要认识到,即便是一家卓越的公司,其价值也可能需要很长一段时间才能追上他们支付的价格。
You can, of course, pay too much for even the best of businesses. The overpayment risk surfaces periodically and, in our opinion, may now be quite high for the purchasers of virtually all stocks, The Inevitables included. Investors making purchases in an overheated market need to recognize that it may often take an extended period for the value of even an outstanding company to catch up with the price they paid.
更严重的问题在于,一家伟大的公司管理层若偏离正轨,忽视其优质核心业务,转而收购那些平庸甚至更差的业务,投资者的痛苦往往会被拉长。不幸的是,这正是多年前可口可乐和吉列身上发生的事情。(你能相信吗,几十年前,可口可乐在养虾,吉列在勘探石油?)当我和查理考虑投资那些总体看起来出色的企业时,失去焦点最让我们担忧。我们太常看到,由于傲慢或无聊导致管理者分心,价值停滞不前。不过,这种情况不会再发生在可口可乐和吉列身上——鉴于它们现任及未来的管理层。
A far more serious problem occurs when the management of a great company gets sidetracked and neglects its wonderful base business while purchasing other businesses that are so-so or worse. When that happens, the suffering of investors is often prolonged. Unfortunately, that is precisely what transpired years ago at both Coke and Gillette. (Would you believe that a few decades back they were growing shrimp at Coke and exploring for oil at Gillette?) Loss of focus is what most worries Charlie and me when we contemplate investing in businesses that in general look outstanding. All too often, we've seen value stagnate in the presence of hubris or of boredom that caused the attention of managers to wander. That's not going to happen again at Coke and Gillette, however - not given their current and prospective managements.
- * * * * * * * * * * *
- * * * * * * * * * * *
关于你个人的投资,我再补充几句。大多数投资者,无论是机构还是个人,都会发现,持有普通股的最佳途径是收费极低的指数基金。遵循这条路径的人,其净回报(扣除费用和开支后)必然跑赢绝大多数投资专业人士。
Let me add a few thoughts about your own investments. Most investors, both institutional and individual, will find that the best way to own common stocks is through an index fund that charges minimal fees. Those following this path are sure to beat the net results (after fees and expenses) delivered by the great majority of investment professionals.
不过,若你执意自建投资组合,有几点想法值得铭记。明智的投资并不复杂,尽管远非易事。投资者所需的是正确评估选定企业的能力。注意“选定”二字:你无需成为每家公司的专家,甚至无需了解多数公司。你只需有能力评估自己能力圈范围内的企业。这个圈的大小并不重要,然而,知晓其边界却是至关重要。
Should you choose, however, to construct your own portfolio, there are a few thoughts worth remembering. Intelligent investing is not complex, though that is far from saying that it is easy. What an investor needs is the ability to correctly evaluate selected businesses. Note that word "selected": You don't have to be an expert on every company, or even many. You only have to be able to evaluate companies within your circle of competence. The size of that circle is not very important; knowing its boundaries, however, is vital.
要想投资成功,你并不需要懂得贝塔系数、有效市场、现代投资组合理论、期权定价或是新兴市场。事实上,对这些一无所知,你反而可能更有优势。当然,这并非大多数商学院的主流看法,那里的金融课程往往被这些课题所主导。但依我们之见,投资学的学生只需两门教得透彻的课程——如何评估企业价值,以及如何看待市场价格。
To invest successfully, you need not understand beta, efficient markets, modern portfolio theory, option pricing or emerging markets. You may, in fact, be better off knowing nothing of these. That, of course, is not the prevailing view at most business schools, whose finance curriculum tends to be dominated by such subjects. In our view, though, investment students need only two well-taught courses - How to Value a Business, and How to Think About Market Prices.
作为投资者,你的目标应当仅仅是以合理的价格买入一家易于理解的企业的部分权益,这家企业的盈利在未来五年、十年乃至二十年后,几乎可以确定会显著高于现在。随着时间推移,你会发现符合这些标准的企业寥寥无几——所以一旦看到合格的目标,就该买入相当数量的股票。你还必须抵制偏离准则的诱惑:如果不愿持有一只股票十年,那就连十分钟都不要去想它。把那些整体盈利逐年攀升的公司组合成一个投资组合,那么组合的市值也会随之水涨船高。
Your goal as an investor should simply be to purchase, at a rational price, a part interest in an easily-understandable business whose earnings are virtually certain to be materially higher five, ten and twenty years from now. Over time, you will find only a few companies that meet these standards - so when you see one that qualifies, you should buy a meaningful amount of stock. You must also resist the temptation to stray from your guidelines: If you aren't willing to own a stock for ten years, don't even think about owning it for ten minutes. Put together a portfolio of companies whose aggregate earnings march upward over the years, and so also will the portfolio's market value.
虽然这一点很少被认识到,但正是这一途径为伯克希尔的股东带来了收益:多年来,我们的透视盈余快速增长,股价也相应上涨。如果这些盈余的增长未能实现,伯克希尔的价值就不会有太大提升。
Though it's seldom recognized, this is the exact approach that has produced gains for Berkshire shareholders: Our look-through earnings have grown at a good clip over the years, and our stock price has risen correspondingly. Had those gains in earnings not materialized, there would have been little increase in Berkshire's value.
如今我们所拥有的显著扩大的盈利基础,不可避免地会使未来的收益增长慢于过去。然而,我们将继续沿着以往的方向前进。我们会努力通过良好运营现有业务来提升盈利——得益于我们运营经理们的卓越才能,这项工作变得轻松——同时,我们也会收购其他企业,不论是整体还是部分,这些企业应不易受变革冲击,并且拥有重要的竞争优势。
The greatly enlarged earnings base we now enjoy will inevitably cause our future gains to lag those of the past. We will continue, however, to push in the directions we always have. We will try to build earnings by running our present businesses well - a job made easy because of the extraordinary talents of our operating managers - and by purchasing other businesses, in whole or in part, that are not likely to be roiled by change and that possess important competitive advantages.
USAir
USAir
有人问维珍大西洋航空的富豪老板理查德·布兰森,怎么才能成为百万富翁,他脱口而出:“这太简单了。先当个亿万富翁,再去买家航空公司。”你的董事长可不想全凭信仰就信了布兰森这话,于是在 1989 年决定亲自验证一下,拿出 3580 万美元买了美国航空 9.25% 的优先股。
When Richard Branson, the wealthy owner of Virgin Atlantic Airways, was asked how to become a millionaire, he had a quick answer: "There's really nothing to it. Start as a billionaire and then buy an airline." Unwilling to accept Branson's proposition on faith, your Chairman decided in 1989 to test it by investing $358 million in a 9.25% preferred stock of USAir.
我喜欢并敬佩时任公司总裁的埃德·科洛德尼,至今依然如此。但我在分析美国航空(USAir)业务时,既流于表面,又犯了错误。我被该公司多年来持续盈利的历史,以及持有优先证券似乎能提供的保护所迷惑,以至于忽略了一个关键点:美国航空的收入将日益受到无管制、激烈竞争市场的影响,而其成本结构却沿袭自管制保护利润的年代。这些成本若不加控制,无论航空公司过往业绩多么令人安心,都预示着灾难。(如果历史能提供所有答案,福布斯 400 富豪榜就该由图书管理员组成了。)
I liked and admired Ed Colodny, the company's then-CEO, and I still do. But my analysis of USAir's business was both superficial and wrong. I was so beguiled by the company's long history of profitable operations, and by the protection that ownership of a senior security seemingly offered me, that I overlooked the crucial point: USAir's revenues would increasingly feel the effects of an unregulated, fiercely- competitive market whereas its cost structure was a holdover from the days when regulation protected profits. These costs, if left unchecked, portended disaster, however reassuring the airline's past record might be. (If history supplied all of the answers, the Forbes 400 would consist of librarians.)
然而,为了合理化其成本结构,USAir 必须在劳工合同上实现重大改进——而除了可信地威胁或实际进入破产程序外,大多数航空公司都发现这一点异常难以达成。USAir 也不例外。我们购入优先股后不久,公司成本与收入之间的失衡便开始急剧恶化。在 1990-1994 年间,USAir 累计亏损达 24 亿美元,这一表现彻底抹去了其普通股的账面净值。
To rationalize its costs, however, USAir needed major improvements in its labor contracts - and that's something most airlines have found it extraordinarily difficult to get, short of credibly threatening, or actually entering, bankruptcy. USAir was to be no exception. Immediately after we purchased our preferred stock, the imbalance between the company's costs and revenues began to grow explosively. In the 1990- 1994 period, USAir lost an aggregate of $2.4 billion, a performance that totally wiped out the book equity of its common stock.
在这段时间的大多数年份里,公司一直按时支付我们的优先股股息,但到了 1994 年,支付被暂停了。不久后,形势看起来特别黯淡,我们将这项投资减记了 75%,降至 8950 万美元。此后,在 1995 年的大部分时间里,我一直试图以票面价值 50% 的价格出售我们的股份。幸运的是,我没能成功。
For much of this period, the company paid us our preferred dividends, but in 1994 payment was suspended. A bit later, with the situation looking particularly gloomy, we wrote down our investment by 75%, to $89.5 million. Thereafter, during much of 1995, I offered to sell our shares at 50% of face value. Fortunately, I was unsuccessful.
在美国航空的诸多失误中,有一件事我做对了:投资时,我们在优先股合同中写入了一项略显特别的条款,规定任何拖欠的股息都要按“惩罚性股息”计息——利率在基准利率基础上再加 5 个百分点。这意味着,当我们的 9.25% 股息被拖欠两年时,未付部分以 13.25% 至 14% 的利率复利增长。
Mixed in with my many mistakes at USAir was one thing I got right: Making our investment, we wrote into the preferred contract a somewhat unusual provision stipulating that "penalty dividends" - to run five percentage points over the prime rate - would be accrued on any arrearages. This meant that when our 9.25% dividend was omitted for two years, the unpaid amounts compounded at rates ranging between 13.25% and 14%.
面对这一罚则条款,全美航空有充分动力尽快支付拖欠款项。1996 年下半年,公司转亏为盈,确实开始还款,付给我们 4790 万美元。我们欠该公司首席执行官斯蒂芬·沃尔夫一句大大的感谢,他带领航空公司取得业绩,让这笔款项得以兑现。即便如此,全美航空近期的表现很大程度上得益于行业顺风,这种顺风可能具有周期性。公司仍面临必须解决的根本性成本问题。
Facing this penalty provision, USAir had every incentive to pay arrearages just as promptly as it could. And in the second half of 1996, when USAir turned profitable, it indeed began to pay, giving us $47.9 million. We owe Stephen Wolf, the company's CEO, a huge thank-you for extracting a performance from the airline that permitted this payment. Even so, USAir's performance has recently been helped significantly by an industry tailwind that may be cyclical in nature. The company still has basic cost problems that must be solved.
无论如何,美国航空(USAir)公开交易的证券价格表明,我们的优先股如今很可能价值其面值 3.58 亿美元,上下略有浮动。此外,多年来我们累计已收到 2.405 亿美元股息(其中包括 1997 年收到的 3000 万美元)。
In any event, the prices of USAir's publicly-traded securities tell us that our preferred stock is now probably worth its par value of $358 million, give or take a little. In addition, we have over the years collected an aggregate of $240.5 million in dividends (including $30 million received in 1997).
1996 年初,在累计股息尚未支付之前,我曾再次尝试抛售我们的持仓——当时报价约为 3.35 亿美元。算你走运:我这次又没能做到从胜利中夺取失败。
Early in 1996, before any accrued dividends had been paid, I tried once more to unload our holdings - this time for about $335 million. You're lucky: I again failed in my attempt to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
换个场合,曾有朋友问我:“你既然这么有钱,怎么还这么不聪明?”看了我在美国航空公司的糟糕表现,你或许会觉得他说得有理。
In another context, a friend once asked me: "If you're so rich, why aren't you smart?" After reviewing my sorry performance with USAir, you may conclude he had a point.
Financings
Financings
去年,我们向所罗门兄弟开出了四张支票,每次合作都令我们对其服务感到十分满意。我已提及过其中一笔交易:飞安国际的收购,所罗门在该交易中担任发起投资银行。另一笔交易中,该公司为我们旗下的金融子公司成功发行了一笔小额债券。
We wrote four checks to Salomon Brothers last year and in each case were delighted with the work for which we were paying. I've already described one transaction: the FlightSafety purchase in which Salomon was the initiating investment banker. In a second deal, the firm placed a small debt offering for our finance subsidiary.
另外,我们通过所罗门兄弟做了两笔规模不小的发行,各自都有值得玩味的地方。第一笔是 5 月份出售 51.75 万股 B 类普通股,净得 5.65 亿美元。我之前跟你们说过,这次出售是为了应对有人威胁要设立单位信托、把自己包装成伯克希尔翻版的局面。这些信托会拿我们过去那种绝对不可复制的成绩来吸引天真的小投资者,并向这些无辜者收取高额费用和佣金。
Additionally, we made two good-sized offerings through Salomon, both with interesting aspects. The first was our sale in May of 517,500 shares of Class B Common, which generated net proceeds of $565 million. As I have told you before, we made this sale in response to the threatened creation of unit trusts that would have marketed themselves as Berkshire look-alikes. In the process, they would have used our past, and definitely nonrepeatable, record to entice naive small investors and would have charged these innocents high fees and commissions.
我认为这种信托要卖出价值数十亿美元的份额其实轻而易举,而且我也相信,这类信托早期在营销上的成功会引来其他机构纷纷效仿。(在证券这一行,凡是卖得动的东西,就一定会有人卖。)与此同时,信托会不加甄别地把发行筹得的资金倾泻进一个供应量固定且有限的伯克希尔股票池中。由此很可能出现的结局是:我们的股价被炒成投机泡沫。至少在某个阶段,股价的暴涨会自我应验,因为它会吸引一波又一波天真而容易受影响的投资者涌进信托,进而引发对伯克希尔股票更疯狂的抢购。
I think it would have been quite easy for such trusts to have sold many billions of dollars worth of units, and I also believe that early marketing successes by these trusts would have led to the formation of others. (In the securities business, whatever can be sold will be sold.) The trusts would have meanwhile indiscriminately poured the proceeds of their offerings into a supply of Berkshire shares that is fixed and limited. The likely result: a speculative bubble in our stock. For at least a time, the price jump would have been self-validating, in that it would have pulled new waves of naive and impressionable investors into the trusts and set off still more buying of Berkshire shares.
部分选择退出的伯克希尔股东可能觉得这样的结局正中下怀,因为他们可以利用买家进场时的虚假希望从中获利。然而,一旦现实浮出水面,继续持股的股东就会遭殃,因为到那时,伯克希尔将背上数十万心怀不满的间接所有者(也就是信托持有人)的包袱,同时名誉也会受损。
Some Berkshire shareholders choosing to exit might have found that outcome ideal, since they could have profited at the expense of the buyers entering with false hopes. Continuing shareholders, however, would have suffered once reality set in, for at that point Berkshire would have been burdened with both hundreds of thousands of unhappy, indirect owners (trustholders, that is) and a stained reputation.
我们发行 B 股不仅阻止了信托产品的销售,也为那些在听取我们警告后仍希望投资伯克希尔的人提供了一条低成本途径。为了削弱经纪人推销新发行股票的热情——因为那才是他们赚钱的地方——我们安排本次发行仅收取 1.5% 的佣金,这是我们在普通股承销中见过的最低回报。此外,我们使发行规模不设上限,从而让那些追逐炒作与稀缺性带来的短期价格飙升的典型 IPO 买家望而却步。
Our issuance of the B shares not only arrested the sale of the trusts, but provided a low-cost way for people to invest in Berkshire if they still wished to after hearing the warnings we issued. To blunt the enthusiasm that brokers normally have for pushing new issues - because that's where the money is - we arranged for our offering to carry a commission of only 1.5%, the lowest payoff that we have ever seen in a common stock underwriting. Additionally, we made the amount of the offering open-ended, thereby repelling the typical IPO buyer who looks for a short-term price spurt arising from a combination of hype and scarcity.
总体来说,我们力图确保 B 股只会被抱有长期眼光的投资者买走。这些努力大体上取得了成效:B 股发行后的交易量——衡量“倒手”的一个粗略指标——远低于新股通常的水平。最终我们新增了约 4 万名股东,我们相信其中大多数既清楚自己所持有的资产,也与我们有着相同的投资期限。
Overall, we tried to make sure that the B stock would be purchased only by investors with a long-term perspective. Those efforts were generally successful: Trading volume in the B shares immediately following the offering - a rough index of "flipping" - was far below the norm for a new issue. In the end we added about 40,000 shareholders, most of whom we believe both understand what they own and share our time horizons.
所罗门在这笔非同寻常的交易中表现堪称完美。其投资银行家完全理解了我们的目标,并针对这些目标量身定制了发行的每一个环节。如果我们的发行按常规结构进行,这家公司本可赚取多得多的收益——或许十倍于此。但参与其中的投资银行家并未试图朝那个方向调整细节。相反,他们提出的方案与所罗门自身的财务利益相悖,却大大提高了伯克希尔实现目标的可能性。特里·菲茨杰拉德主导了这项工作,我们感谢他所做的努力。
Salomon could not have performed better in the handling of this unusual transaction. Its investment bankers understood perfectly what we were trying to achieve and tailored every aspect of the offering to meet these objectives. The firm would have made far more money - perhaps ten times as much - if our offering had been standard in its make-up. But the investment bankers involved made no attempt to tweak the specifics in that direction. Instead they came up with ideas that were counter to Salomon's financial interest but that made it much more certain Berkshire's goals would be reached. Terry Fitzgerald captained this effort, and we thank him for the job that he did.
在这样的背景下,你听到我们去年年底决定再次找泰瑞发行伯克希尔票据、可兑换我们所持部分所罗门股票时,就不会感到意外了。这次又是所罗门干得相当漂亮,以 4.471 亿美元卖出了 5 亿美元本金的五年期票据。每张 1000 美元票据可兑换 17.65 股,三年后可按增值价值赎回。算上原始发行折价和 1% 的票息,这些证券持有到期且不兑换成所罗门股票的投资者,收益率将是 3%。但这些票据很可能在到期前就被兑换。如果发生这种情况,我们在兑换前的利息成本大约为 1.1%。
Given that background, it won't surprise you to learn that we again went to Terry when we decided late in the year to sell an issue of Berkshire notes that can be exchanged for a portion of the Salomon shares that we hold. In this instance, once again, Salomon did an absolutely first-class job, selling $500 million principal amount of five-year notes for $447.1 million. Each $1,000 note is exchangeable into 17.65 shares and is callable in three years at accreted value. Counting the original issue discount and a 1% coupon, the securities will provide a yield of 3% to maturity for holders who do not exchange them for Salomon stock. But it seems quite likely that the notes will be exchanged before their maturity. If that happens, our interest cost will be about 1.1% for the period prior to exchange.
近些年,有文章称查理和我在投资银行费用上颇有微词。这完全不对。过去 30 年,我们支付了大量费用——从 1967 年购买国民赔偿公司时付给查理·海德的第一张支票起——我们乐于支付与业绩相称的报酬。就 1996 年所罗门兄弟的交易而言,我们所得远超所付。
In recent years, it has been written that Charlie and I are unhappy about all investment-banking fees. That's dead wrong. We have paid a great many fees over the last 30 years - beginning with the check we wrote to Charlie Heider upon our purchase of National Indemnity in 1967 - and we are delighted to make payments that are commensurate with performance. In the case of the 1996 transactions at Salomon Brothers, we more than got our money's worth.
Miscellaneous
Miscellaneous
尽管这是个艰难的决定,查理和我还是决定迈入 20 世纪。因此,我们打算将伯克希尔未来的季度和年度报告发布在互联网上,可通过 http://www.berkshirehathaway.com 访问。我们总是会在周六“发布”这些报告,以便任何感兴趣的人士在交易开始前有充足时间消化信息。接下来 12 个月的发布安排为 1997 年 5 月 17 日、1997 年 8 月 16 日、1997 年 11 月 15 日和 1998 年 3 月 14 日。我们也会发布所发出的任何新闻稿。
Though it was a close decision, Charlie and I have decided to enter the 20th Century. Accordingly, we are going to put future quarterly and annual reports of Berkshire on the Internet, where they can be accessed via http://www.berkshirehathaway.com. We will always "post" these reports on a Saturday so that anyone interested will have ample time to digest the information before trading begins. Our publishing schedule for the next 12 months is May 17, 1997, August 16, 1997, November 15, 1997, and March 14, 1998. We will also post any press releases that we issue.
将来某个时候,我们可能停止邮寄季度报告,改为直接发布在互联网上。这一举措能省下大笔费用。此外,我们有不少股东以“街名”持有股票,发现季度报告寄给他们时,派发情况极不规律:有些股东比其他股东晚几周才收到邮件。
At some point, we may stop mailing our quarterly reports and simply post these on the Internet. This move would eliminate significant costs. Also, we have a large number of "street name" holders and have found that the distribution of our quarterlies to them is highly erratic: Some holders receive their mailings weeks later than others.
纯网络发行的缺点在于,我们许多股东没有电脑。然而,这些股东中的大多数可以轻松在工作场所或通过朋友获得打印版。请告知我,如果您更希望我们继续邮寄季度报告。我们希望听取您的意见——从您是否阅读这些报告开始——并且至少在 1997 年不会做出任何改变。此外,除了在互联网上发布年报外,我们必定会继续以现有形式递送年报。
The drawback to Internet-only distribution is that many of our shareholders lack computers. Most of these holders, however, could easily obtain printouts at work or through friends. Please let me know if you prefer that we continue mailing quarterlies. We want your input - starting with whether you even read these reports - and at a minimum will make no change in 1997. Also, we will definitely keep delivering the annual report in its present form in addition to publishing it on the Internet.
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1996 年伯克希尔的股东指定捐赠计划中,约 97.2% 的合格股份参与了进来。捐赠总额为 1330 万美元,共有 3910 家慈善机构受益。关于股东指定捐赠计划的完整描述见第 48-49 页。
About 97.2% of all eligible shares participated in Berkshire's 1996 shareholder-designated contributions program. Contributions made were $13.3 million, and 3,910 charities were recipients. A full description of the shareholder-designated contributions program appears on pages 48- 49.
每年总有少数股东错过这项计划,要么因为没在规定的登记日之前将股票登记在自己名下,要么因为没能在允许的 60 天期限内把指定表格寄回给我们。这让我和查理感到十分遗憾。但若回复迟到,我们也只能拒绝,因为不能对部分股东破例,却对其他股东拒绝通融。
Every year a few shareholders miss out on the program because they don't have their shares registered in their own names on the prescribed record date or because they fail to get the designation form back to us within the 60-day period allowed. This is distressing to Charlie and me. But if replies are received late, we have to reject them because we can't make exceptions for some shareholders while refusing to make them for others.
参加未来计划须以实际所有人名义登记 A 类股,而非经纪人、银行或存托机构的代名人名义。1997 年 8 月 31 日未按此登记的股份,将无资格参与 1997 年计划。收到表格后请及时寄回,以免搁置或遗忘。
To participate in future programs, you must own Class A shares that are registered in the name of the actual owner, not the nominee name of a broker, bank or depository. Shares not so registered on August 31, 1997, will be ineligible for the 1997 program. When you get the form, return it promptly so that it does not get put aside or forgotten.
年度股东大会
The Annual Meeting
我们资本家版的伍德斯托克音乐节——伯克希尔股东大会——将于 5 月 5 日星期一举行。查理和我非常享受这场盛会,希望您能前来。上午 9:30 开始,中午休息约 15 分钟(现场有食物供应——当然,是要付费的),然后继续与铁杆参会者交谈,至少持续到下午 3:30。去年,参会者来自全美 50 个州,以及澳大利亚、希腊、以色列、葡萄牙、新加坡、瑞典、瑞士和英国。股东大会是股东们解答业务相关问题的时候,因此查理和我会一直待在台上,直到我们开始语无伦次为止。(真到那时,我希望您能注意到我们的变化。)
Our capitalist's version of Woodstock -the Berkshire Annual Meeting- will be held on Monday, May 5. Charlie and I thoroughly enjoy this event, and we hope that you come. We will start at 9:30 a.m., break for about 15 minutes at noon (food will be available - but at a price, of course), and then continue talking to hard-core attendees until at least 3:30. Last year we had representatives from all 50 states, as well as Australia, Greece, Israel, Portugal, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. The annual meeting is a time for owners to get their business-related questions answered, and therefore Charlie and I will stay on stage until we start getting punchy. (When that happens, I hope you notice a change.)
去年参会人数达到 5000 人,即便我们分占了三个房间,假日会议中心依然挤得水泄不通。今年,新推出的 B 类股让我们的股东人数翻了一倍,因此我们把股东大会迁至可容纳约 10,000 人、且配有超大停车场的阿克萨本体育馆。大会将于早上 7:00 开门,8:30 应大家强烈要求,我们将播放一部由首席财务官马克·汉堡制作的全新伯克希尔影片。(在这家公司,没人能只干一份活。)
Last year we had attendance of 5,000 and strained the capacity of the Holiday Convention Centre, even though we spread out over three rooms. This year, our new Class B shares have caused a doubling of our stockholder count, and we are therefore moving the meeting to the Aksarben Coliseum, which holds about 10,000 and also has a huge parking lot. The doors will open for the meeting at 7:00 a.m., and at 8:30 we will - upon popular demand - show a new Berkshire movie produced by Marc Hamburg, our CFO. (In this company, no one gets by with doing only a single job.)
为了克服我们对哪怕是略带商业气息的活动那种出了名的反感,我们将在会议室外的走廊里摆上一大堆伯克希尔的商品供出售。去年我们打破了所有纪录,卖出了 1270 磅喜诗糖果、1143 双德克斯特鞋、2.9 万美元的《世界图书》及相关出版物,还有我们 Quikut 子公司生产的 700 套刀具。此外,许多股东问起 GEICO 车险的事。如果你想知道自己能不能省下保费,就把现在的保单带到股东大会来。我们估计大约 40% 的股东通过在我们这里投保能省钱。(我们倒想说 100%,但保险这行不是这么回事:因为各保险公司承保判断不同,有些股东现在付的费率已经比 GEICO 低了。)
Overcoming our legendary repugnance for activities even faintly commercial, we will also have an abundant array of Berkshire products for sale in the halls outside the meeting room. Last year we broke all records, selling 1,270 pounds of See's candy, 1,143 pairs of Dexter shoes, $29,000 of World Books and related publications, and 700 sets of knives manufactured by our Quikut subsidiary. Additionally, many shareholders made inquiries about GEICO auto policies. If you would like to investigate possible insurance savings, bring your present policy to the meeting. We estimate that about 40% of our shareholders can save money by insuring with us. (We'd like to say 100%, but the insurance business doesn't work that way: Because insurers differ in their underwriting judgments, some of our shareholders are currently paying rates that are lower than GEICO's.)
随本报告附上的委托材料中有一份说明,告诉您如何获取参加会议所需的入场卡。我们预计参会人数众多,请尽早预订机票和酒店。美国运通(800-799-6634)很乐意为您安排相关事宜。和往常一样,我们会安排巴士往返于各大酒店与会场之间,并在会议结束后送您前往内布拉斯加家具城、博尔斯海姆珠宝店及机场。
An attachment to the proxy material enclosed with this report explains how you can obtain the card you will need for admission to the meeting. We expect a large crowd, so get both plane and hotel reservations promptly. American Express (800-799-6634) will be happy to help you with arrangements. As usual, we will have buses servicing the larger hotels to take you to and from the meeting, and also to take you to Nebraska Furniture Mart, Borsheim's and the airport after it is over.
内布拉斯加家具城的主店位于距阿克萨本约一英里、占地 75 英亩的地块上,工作日营业时间为上午 10 点至晚上 9 点,周六上午 10 点至下午 6 点,周日中午至下午 6 点。欢迎前来向“B 夫人”(罗丝·布拉姆金)打个招呼。她今年 103 岁,有时会带着连接在手推车氧气罐上的氧气面罩。但如果你想跟上她的步伐,需要吸氧的恐怕是你。内布拉斯加家具城去年营业额约 2.65 亿美元,创下单一地点家居用品经营的新纪录,等你亲眼看到其商品和价格,就会明白其中缘由。
NFM's main store, located on a 75-acre site about a mile from Aksarben, is open from 10 a.m. to 9 p.m. on weekdays, 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Saturdays, and noon to 6 p.m. on Sundays. Come by and say hello to "Mrs. B" (Rose Blumkin). She's 103 now and sometimes operates with an oxygen mask that is attached to a tank on her cart. But if you try to keep pace with her, it will be you who needs oxygen. NFM did about $265 million of business last year - a record for a single-location home furnishings operation - and you'll see why once you check out its merchandise and prices.
博尔斯海姆珠宝平时周日不营业,但 5 月 4 日当天会为股东特地从上午 10 点开到下午 6 点。去年“股东星期天”那天,我们在客单量、销售额上打破了博尔斯海姆所有纪录,不用说,每平方英寸的到场人数也创了新高。因为今年预计同样会爆满,所有周日到场的股东必须携带入场证。想要避开这种热闹场面的股东,可以在周六(上午 10 点到下午 5 点半)或周一(上午 10 点到晚上 8 点)享受同样的特别待遇。今年随时欢迎光临,让博尔斯海姆首席执行官苏珊·雅克和她的能工巧匠们给你来一次无痛“钱包瘦身术”。
Borsheim's normally is closed on Sunday but will be open for shareholders from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. on May 4th. Last year on "Shareholder Sunday" we broke every Borsheim's record in terms of tickets, dollar volume and, no doubt, attendees per square inch. Because we expect a capacity crowd this year as well, all shareholders attending on Sunday must bring their admission cards. Shareholders who prefer a somewhat less frenzied experience will get the same special treatment on Saturday, when the store is open from 10 a.m. to 5:30 p.m., or on Monday between 10 a.m. and 8 p.m. Come by at any time this year and let Susan Jacques, Borsheim's CEO, and her skilled associates perform a painless walletectomy on you.
我最喜欢的牛排馆 Gorat’s,去年股东大会那个周末被订得满满当当,尽管周日下午 4 点加开了一场。你可以在 4 月 1 日(不要提前)起打电话 402-551-3733 预订。周日在博尔斯海姆珠宝之后,我会去 Gorat’s,照例点一份三分熟的 T 骨牛排和双份土豆煎饼。我还推荐——这是我和得力助手黛比·博萨内克(Debbie Bosanek)午餐时的标配——热烤牛肉三明治配土豆泥和肉汁。提黛比的名字,你会得到额外一船肉汁。
My favorite steakhouse, Gorat's, was sold out last year on the weekend of the annual meeting, even though it added an additional seating at 4 p.m. on Sunday. You can make reservations beginning on April 1st (but not earlier) by calling 402-551-3733. I will be at Gorat's on Sunday after Borsheim's, having my usual rare T-bone and double order of hashbrowns. I can also recommend - this is the standard fare when Debbie Bosanek, my invaluable assistant, and I go to lunch - the hot roast beef sandwich with mashed potatoes and gravy. Mention Debbie's name and you will be given an extra boat of gravy.
奥马哈皇家队与印第安纳波利斯印第安人队将于 5 月 3 日(周六)晚在罗森布拉特体育场进行棒球比赛。按照我的常规轮换节奏——每年只投一球——我将担任先发投手。
The Omaha Royals and Indianapolis Indians will play baseball on Saturday evening, May 3rd, at Rosenblatt Stadium. Pitching in my normal rotation - one throw a year - I will start.
尽管罗森布拉特球场外表平平无奇,但实则不然:这片场地坐落在一个独特的地质构造上,偶尔会释放出短暂的引力波,即便是投得最顺手的球也会猛然下坠。过去我曾多次成为这一奇异现象的受害者,但今年希望天公作美。球赛现场会有大量拍照机会,但要想捕捉我那飞向本垒板的快速球,你得有极快的反应速度。
Though Rosenblatt is normal in appearance, it is anything but: The field sits on a unique geological structure that occasionally emits short gravitational waves causing even the most smoothly-delivered pitch to sink violently. I have been the victim of this weird phenomenon several times in the past but am hoping for benign conditions this year. There will be lots of opportunities for photos at the ball game, but you will need incredibly fast reflexes to snap my fast ball en route to the plate.
我们的股东大会材料里包含了获取比赛门票的信息。我们还会提供一份资料包,列出周日晚上营业的餐厅,并介绍周末在奥马哈可以参加的各种活动。伯克希尔上上下下都期待与你们见面。
Our proxy statement includes information about obtaining tickets to the game. We will also provide an information packet listing restaurants that will be open on Sunday night and describing various things that you can do in Omaha on the weekend. The entire gang at Berkshire looks forward to seeing you.
沃伦·E·巴菲特 董事会主席 1997 年 2 月 28 日
Warren E. Buffett February 28, 1997 Chairman of the Board