1997 年致股东信

致股东信 · 原文约 11158 词
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1997 Chairman's Letter

1997 Chairman's Letter

伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.

1997 Chairman's Letter

1997 Chairman's Letter

致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司各位股东:

To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

1997 年我们的净资产增加了 80 亿美元,使 A 类和 B 类股票的每股账面价值都增长了 34.1%。在过去 33 年间(即现任管理层接手以来),每股账面价值从 19 美元增长到 25,488 美元,年复合增长率达到 24.1%。(1)

Our gain in net worth during 1997 was $8.0 billion, which increased the per-share book value of both our Class A and Class B stock by 34.1%. Over the last 33 years (that is, since present management took over) per-share book value has grown from $19 to $25,488, a rate of 24.1% compounded annually. (1)

本报告中的所有数字均适用于伯克希尔的 A 股,它是公司 1996 年前唯一在外流通股的继承者。B 股的经济权益相当于 A 股的 1/30。

1. All figures used in this report apply to Berkshire's A shares, the successor to the only stock that the company had outstanding before 1996. The B shares have an economic interest equal to 1/30th that of the A.

鉴于我们 34.1% 的涨幅,宣布胜利并继续前行颇具诱惑力。但去年的表现并非什么了不起的胜利:任何投资者都能在股市飙升时记下大笔回报,1997 年正是如此。在牛市中,必须避免那种自鸣得意的鸭子犯下的错误——倾盆大雨后,它呱呱自夸,以为是自己划水的本领让它升到了高位。一只头脑清醒的鸭子,反而会把自己在大雨之后的位置,与池塘里其他鸭子进行比较。

Given our gain of 34.1%, it is tempting to declare victory and move on. But last year's performance was no great triumph: Any investor can chalk up large returns when stocks soar, as they did in 1997. In a bull market, one must avoid the error of the preening duck that quacks boastfully after a torrential rainstorm, thinking that its paddling skills have caused it to rise in the world. A right-thinking duck would instead compare its position after the downpour to that of the other ducks on the pond.

那么,1997 年我们这只鸭子的评级如何?对面页的表格显示,尽管去年我们拼命划水,但那些只是简单投资于标普指数的被动鸭子,涨幅几乎和我们一样快。因此,我们对 1997 年表现的评语是:嘎。

So what's our duck rating for 1997? The table on the facing page shows that though we paddled furiously last year, passive ducks that simply invested in the S&P Index rose almost as fast as we did. Our appraisal of 1997's performance, then: Quack .

市场繁荣时,我们在与标普指数比较时往往会吃亏。指数不承担税务成本,共同基金也是如此,因为它们将所有税务负担转嫁给其持有者。而去年,伯克希尔为联邦所得税支付或预留了 42 亿美元,相当于我们年初净资产的约 18%。

When the market booms, we tend to suffer in comparison with the S&P Index. The Index bears no tax costs, nor do mutual funds, since they pass through all tax liabilities to their owners. Last year, on the other hand, Berkshire paid or accrued $4.2 billion for federal income tax, or about 18% of our beginning net worth.

伯克希尔永远都要缴纳公司税,这意味着它必须克服这一负担才能证明自身存在的价值。显然,查理·芒格,伯克希尔副董事长兼我的搭档,和我无法每年都战胜这一不利因素。但我们希望在长期内能保持对指数的微弱优势,这也是你们应当用来衡量我们的标准。我们不会要求你们采纳芝加哥小熊队球迷的心态,那位球迷在球队连续多个平淡赛季后说:“何必生气?每个人偶尔都会有一个糟糕的世纪。”

Berkshire will always have corporate taxes to pay, which means it needs to overcome their drag in order to justify its existence. Obviously, Charlie Munger, Berkshire's Vice Chairman and my partner, and I won't be able to lick that handicap every year. But we expect over time to maintain a modest advantage over the Index, and that is the yardstick against which you should measure us. We will not ask you to adopt the philosophy of the Chicago Cubs fan who reacted to a string of lackluster seasons by saying, "Why get upset? Everyone has a bad century now and then."

账面价值的增长当然不是伯克希尔的最终衡量标准。真正重要的是每股内在商业价值的增长。不过通常情况下,这两个指标大致同步变化,1997 年正是如此:在 GEICO 出色表现的带动下,伯克希尔的内在价值(远超账面价值)增长速度与账面价值几乎持平。

Gains in book value are, of course, not the bottom line at Berkshire. What truly counts are gains in per-share intrinsic business value. Ordinarily, though, the two measures tend to move roughly in tandem, and in 1997 that was the case: Led by a blow-out performance at GEICO, Berkshire's intrinsic value (which far exceeds book value) grew at nearly the same pace as book value.

关于“内在价值”这一术语的更多解释,您可参阅我们的《股东手册》,该手册重印于第 62 至 71 页。这本手册阐述了与股东相关的经营原则,这些信息对伯克希尔的所有股东都至关重要。

For more explanation of the term, intrinsic value, you may wish to refer to our Owner's Manual, reprinted on pages 62 to 71. This manual sets forth our owner-related business principles, information that is important to all of Berkshire's shareholders.

在最近两份年报中,我们附上了一张表格,查理和我认为它是估算伯克希尔内在价值的核心。在更新的表格中,我们追踪了价值的两大关键组成部分。第一列列出了我们每股持有的投资(包括现金及等价物),第二列显示了伯克希尔经营业务在税前及购并会计调整(详见第 69 和 70 页)前的每股收益,但已扣除所有利息和公司费用。第二列不包含我们从第一列所列投资中实现的任何股息、利息和资本利得。实际上,这两列展现的是,如果伯克希尔被拆分为两部分——一个实体持有我们的投资,另一个运营我们所有业务并承担全部公司成本——它会呈现的样子。

In our last two annual reports, we furnished you a table that Charlie and I believe is central to estimating Berkshire's intrinsic value. In the updated version of that table, which follows, we trace our two key components of value. The first column lists our per-share ownership of investments (including cash and equivalents) and the second column shows our per-share earnings from Berkshire's operating businesses before taxes and purchase-accounting adjustments (discussed on pages 69 and 70), but after all interest and corporate expenses. The second column excludes all dividends, interest and capital gains that we realized from the investments presented in the first column. In effect, the columns show what Berkshire would look like were it split into two parts, with one entity holding our investments and the other operating all of our businesses and bearing all corporate costs.

每股税前盈利(不含投资收入)

Pre-tax Earnings Per Share Investments Excluding All Income from

Year

Year

Per Share

Per Share

Investments

Investments

年度每股投资每股税前收益(不包括全部投资收入)
1967$ 41$ 1.09
197737212.44
19873,910108.14
199738,043717.82
YearInvestments Per SharePre-tax Earnings Per Share Excluding All Income from Investments
1967$ 41$ 1.09
197737212.44
19873,910108.14
199738,043717.82

那些无视我们 3.8 万名员工对公司贡献的专家,只把伯克希尔看作一家实际上的投资公司,应该仔细研究第二栏的数字。我们于 1967 年完成首笔企业收购,此后我们的税前经营利润从 100 万美元增长至 8880 万美元。此外,如前所述,在此计算中,我们将伯克希尔的所有公司费用——包括 660 万美元的管理费用、6690 万美元的利息支出和 1540 万美元的股东捐赠——全部划归到业务运营名下,尽管其中一部分本可以合理分配到投资板块。

Pundits who ignore what our 38,000 employees contribute to the company, and instead simply view Berkshire as a de facto investment company, should study the figures in the second column. We made our first business acquisition in 1967, and since then our pre-tax operating earnings have grown from $1 million to $888 million. Furthermore, as noted, in this exercise we have assigned all of Berkshire's corporate expenses -- overhead of $6.6 million, interest of $66.9 million and shareholder contributions of $15.4 million -- to our business operations, even though a portion of these could just as well have been assigned to the investment side.

以下是两个板块按年代划分的增长率:

Here are the growth rates of the two segments by decade:

Pre-tax Earnings Per Share Investments Excluding All Income from

Pre-tax Earnings Per Share Investments Excluding All Income from

Decade Ending

Decade Ending

Per Share

Per Share

Investments

Investments

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

      1977                   24.6%                       27.6%
      1987                   26.5%                       24.1%
      1997                   25.5%                       20.8%
 年增长率,
 1967-1997               25.6%                       24.2%
      1977                   24.6%                       27.6%
      1987                   26.5%                       24.1%
      1997                   25.5%                       20.8%
 Annual Growth
  Rate, 1967-1997            25.6%                       24.2%

1997 年,我们业务的两个板块均以令人满意的速度增长,投资部分每股增加 9543 美元,增幅 33.5%,经营利润每股增长 296.43 美元,增幅 70.3%。但有一点需要特别说明:由于我们在巨灾再保险业务上运气不错(这一点稍后详谈),加上 GEICO 的承保利润远超我们多数年份的预期,1997 年的经营利润大大好于我们的估计,也将高于我们对 1998 年的预期。

During 1997, both parts of our business grew at a satisfactory rate, with investments increasing by $9,543 per share, or 33.5%, and operating earnings growing by $296.43 per share, or 70.3%. One important caveat: Because we were lucky in our super-cat insurance business (to be discussed later) and because GEICO's underwriting gain was well above what we can expect in most years, our 1997 operating earnings were much better than we anticipated and also more than we expect for 1998.

未来,我们在投资和经营两方面的进步速度必定放缓。对任何配置资本的人来说,成功是最容易消退的东西。我自己的经历就是明证:早在 1951 年,我在哥伦比亚大学听本·格雷厄姆的课时,一个带来 1 万美元收益的想法,能让我的年度投资业绩整整提高 100 个百分点。如今,一个为伯克希尔带来税前利润 5 亿美元的想法,只让我们的业绩增加 1 个百分点。难怪我在 1950 年代的年均业绩比之后任何一个十年都要高出近 30 个百分点。查理的经历也差不多。那时候我们不是更聪明,只是更小。以我们现在的规模,即使能取得超额表现,也只会是微乎其微。

Our rate of progress in both investments and operations is certain to fall in the future. For anyone deploying capital, nothing recedes like success. My own history makes the point: Back in 1951, when I was attending Ben Graham's class at Columbia, an idea giving me a $10,000 gain improved my investment performance for the year by a full 100 percentage points. Today, an idea producing a $500 million pre-tax profit for Berkshire adds one percentage point to our performance. It's no wonder that my annual results in the 1950s were better by nearly thirty percentage points than my annual gains in any subsequent decade. Charlie's experience was similar. We weren't smarter then, just smaller. At our present size, any performance superiority we achieve will be minor.

不过,我们也有优势:此前已投入资本的业务——无论是运营子公司,还是被动投资的公司——长期前景都相当出色。我们还拥有一支能力与专注度无人能及的管理团队。这些高管大多已经富有,并不依赖伯克希尔支付的薪酬来维持生活水准。驱使他们的是成就带来的乐趣,而非名声或财富。

We will be helped, however, by the fact that the businesses to which we have already allocated capital -- both operating subsidiaries and companies in which we are passive investors -- have splendid long-term prospects. We are also blessed with a managerial corps that is unsurpassed in ability and focus. Most of these executives are wealthy and do not need the pay they receive from Berkshire to maintain their way of life. They are motivated by the joy of accomplishment, not by fame or fortune.

我们对所持有的资产感到满意,但对新资金的配置前景却不太乐观。无论是企业还是股票,价格都处于高位。这并不意味着它们的价格会下跌——我们对此毫无看法——但确实意味着,当我们投入新的资金时,预期能获得的收益相对有限。

Though we are delighted with what we own, we are not pleased with our prospects for committing incoming funds. Prices are high for both businesses and stocks. That does not mean that the prices of either will fall -- we have absolutely no view on that matter -- but it does mean that we get relatively little in prospective earnings when we commit fresh money.

在这样的情况下,我们努力践行一种泰德·威廉姆斯式的纪律。在他的著作《击打的科学》中,泰德解释说他将好球带划分为 77 个格子,每个格子相当于一个棒球的大小。他知道,只挥棒击打落在自己“最佳”格子里的球,能让他打出 0.400 的打击率;而伸手去够位于他“最差”位置——好球带外侧低角——的球,则会让他打击率跌至 0.230。换句话说,耐心等待那个最甜美的投球意味着进入棒球名人堂;不加选择地挥棒则意味着被下放至小联盟。

Under these circumstances, we try to exert a Ted Williams kind of discipline. In his book The Science of Hitting , Ted explains that he carved the strike zone into 77 cells, each the size of a baseball. Swinging only at balls in his "best" cell, he knew, would allow him to bat .400; reaching for balls in his "worst" spot, the low outside corner of the strike zone, would reduce him to .230. In other words, waiting for the fat pitch would mean a trip to the Hall of Fame; swinging indiscriminately would mean a ticket to the minors.

假如说现在的企业“投球”还在好球区内,那也只是擦着下沿的边角球。我们若是挥棒,收益便被锁定在低位。可要是把今天的球全放过去,谁也不敢保证接下来看到的球会更合我们的心意。或许过去那些诱人的价格才是异数,今天的全价才是常态。跟泰德不一样,我们哪怕连续放掉三个勉强进好球区的球,也不会被判出局;然而,日复一日地杵在那儿、把球棒扛在肩上,可实在算不上我心目中的乐趣。

If they are in the strike zone at all, the business "pitches" we now see are just catching the lower outside corner. If we swing, we will be locked into low returns. But if we let all of today's balls go by, there can be no assurance that the next ones we see will be more to our liking. Perhaps the attractive prices of the past were the aberrations, not the full prices of today. Unlike Ted, we can't be called out if we resist three pitches that are barely in the strike zone; nevertheless, just standing there, day after day, with my bat on my shoulder is not my idea of fun.

Unconventional Commitments

Unconventional Commitments

当我们找不到最心仪的投资标的——那种管理出色、定价合理、经济效益良好的企业——我们通常会把新增资金投向最高品质的短期工具。但偶尔,我们也会涉足别处。显然,我们相信所选择的其他投资更有可能带来盈利而非亏损。但我们同样清楚,这些投资无法保证像以诱人价格买入优质企业那样的确定性收益。找到那样的机会,我们知道自己必定赚钱——唯一的问题是什么时候赚。而面对替代性投资,我们只是认为自己能赚钱,同时也明白有时会遭遇亏损,偶尔亏损幅度还不小。

When we can't find our favorite commitment -- a well-run and sensibly-priced business with fine economics -- we usually opt to put new money into very short-term instruments of the highest quality. Sometimes, however, we venture elsewhere. Obviously we believe that the alternative commitments we make are more likely to result in profit than loss. But we also realize that they do not offer the certainty of profit that exists in a wonderful business secured at an attractive price. Finding that kind of opportunity, we know that we are going to make money -- the only question being when. With alternative investments, we think that we are going to make money. But we also recognize that we will sometimes realize losses, occasionally of substantial size.

年末,我们持有三项非传统头寸。第一项是 1400 万桶石油的衍生品合约,这是我们 1994-95 年建立的 4570 万桶头寸中剩余的部分。3170 万桶的合约已在 1995-97 年间结算,为我们带来了约 6190 万美元的税前收益。剩余合约将在 1998 年和 1999 年到期。年末时,这些合约有 1160 万美元的未实现收益。会计准则要求大宗商品头寸按市价入账,因此我们的年报和季报都会反映这些合约的任何未实现损益。当初建立合约时,未来交割的石油价格似乎略有低估。但如今,我们对它的吸引力已不再有明确看法。

We had three non-traditional positions at yearend. The first was derivative contracts for 14.0 million barrels of oil, that being what was then left of a 45.7 million barrel position we established in 1994-95. Contracts for 31.7 million barrels were settled in 1995-97, and these supplied us with a pre-tax gain of about $61.9 million. Our remaining contracts expire during 1998 and 1999. In these, we had an unrealized gain of $11.6 million at yearend. Accounting rules require that commodity positions be carried at market value. Therefore, both our annual and quarterly financial statements reflect any unrealized gain or loss in these contracts. When we established our contracts, oil for future delivery seemed modestly underpriced. Today, though, we have no opinion as to its attractiveness.

我们的第二个非传统投资是白银。去年,我们买入了 1.112 亿盎司。按市值计算,这一持仓在 1997 年为我们带来了 9740 万美元的税前收益。某种程度上,这对我来说是回归过去:三十年前,我买白银是因为预见到美国政府会让白银退出货币体系。从那以后,我一直关注这种金属的基本面,但没有持有。近年来,金条库存大幅下降,去年夏天,查理和我得出结论,需要更高的价格才能让供需恢复平衡。需要指出的是,通胀预期在我们计算白银价值时不起任何作用。

Our second non-traditional commitment is in silver. Last year, we purchased 111.2 million ounces. Marked to market, that position produced a pre-tax gain of $97.4 million for us in 1997. In a way, this is a return to the past for me: Thirty years ago, I bought silver because I anticipated its demonetization by the U.S. Government. Ever since, I have followed the metal's fundamentals but not owned it. In recent years, bullion inventories have fallen materially, and last summer Charlie and I concluded that a higher price would be needed to establish equilibrium between supply and demand. Inflation expectations, it should be noted, play no part in our calculation of silver's value.

最后,我们年末规模最大的非传统持仓是 46 亿美元(按摊销成本计)的美国国债长期零息债券。这些证券不支付利息;相反,它们通过购买时的折价方式为持有人提供回报,这一特性使得其市场价格在利率变动时迅速波动。若利率上升,零息债券会令你损失惨重;若利率下降,则能带来超额收益。1997 年利率下行,我们年末在这些零息债券上实现了 5.988 亿美元的税前未实现收益。由于我们按市值计价这些证券,该收益已反映在年末账面价值中。

Finally, our largest non-traditional position at yearend was $4.6 billion, at amortized cost, of long-term zero-coupon obligations of the U.S. Treasury. These securities pay no interest. Instead, they provide their holders a return by way of the discount at which they are purchased, a characteristic that makes their market prices move rapidly when interest rates change. If rates rise, you lose heavily with zeros, and if rates fall, you make outsized gains. Since rates fell in 1997, we ended the year with an unrealized pre-tax gain of $598.8 million in our zeros. Because we carry the securities at market value, that gain is reflected in yearend book value.

在购买零息债券而非持有现金等价物这件事上,我们有可能会显得非常愚蠢:这类基于宏观判断的投资决策,从来就不存在接近百分之百的成功概率。不过,你们付薪水给查理和我,是要我们运用最佳判断——而不是为了避免难堪——当我们认为胜率有利时,偶尔会做出非常规的举动。万一我们失手了,请对我们心存善意。和克林顿总统一样,我们也会感受到你们的痛楚:芒格家族超过 90% 的净资产在伯克希尔,巴菲特家族则超过 99%。

In purchasing zeros, rather than staying with cash-equivalents, we risk looking very foolish: A macro-based commitment such as this never has anything close to a 100% probability of being successful. However, you pay Charlie and me to use our best judgment -- not to avoid embarrassment -- and we will occasionally make an unconventional move when we believe the odds favor it. Try to think kindly of us when we blow one. Along with President Clinton, we will be feeling your pain: The Munger family has more than 90% of its net worth in Berkshire and the Buffetts more than 99%.

我们如何看待市场波动

How We Think About Market Fluctuations

一个小测验:如果你打算一辈子吃汉堡,又不是养牛的,你希望牛肉涨价还是降价?同理,如果你隔三岔五要买辆车,又不是造车的,你希望车价高还是低?这些问题,答案不言自明。

A short quiz: If you plan to eat hamburgers throughout your life and are not a cattle producer, should you wish for higher or lower prices for beef? Likewise, if you are going to buy a car from time to time but are not an auto manufacturer, should you prefer higher or lower car prices? These questions, of course, answer themselves.

现在进入期末考试:如果你预计在未来五年内是净储蓄者,那么你应当希望这期间股市走高还是走低?许多投资者在这道题上答错。尽管他们在未来多年将是股票的净买家,但股价上涨时他们兴高采烈,下跌时垂头丧气。实际上,他们是因为即将买入的“汉堡”涨价而开心,这种反应毫无道理。只有那些近期将卖出股票的人才该为股价上涨感到高兴。潜在买家应当更希望价格走低。

But now for the final exam: If you expect to be a net saver during the next five years, should you hope for a higher or lower stock market during that period? Many investors get this one wrong. Even though they are going to be net buyers of stocks for many years to come, they are elated when stock prices rise and depressed when they fall. In effect, they rejoice because prices have risen for the "hamburgers" they will soon be buying. This reaction makes no sense. Only those who will be sellers of equities in the near future should be happy at seeing stocks rise. Prospective purchasers should much prefer sinking prices.

对于不打算出售股票的伯克希尔股东来说,选择就更加清晰了。首先,即便我们的股东把自己个人挣的每一分钱都花光,他们也在自动储蓄:伯克希尔通过留存全部收益为他们“储蓄”,随后用这些储蓄去收购企业和证券。显然,我们买得越便宜,股东们的间接储蓄计划就越赚钱。

For shareholders of Berkshire who do not expect to sell, the choice is even clearer. To begin with, our owners are automatically saving even if they spend every dime they personally earn: Berkshire "saves" for them by retaining all earnings, thereafter using these savings to purchase businesses and securities. Clearly, the more cheaply we make these buys, the more profitable our owners' indirect savings program will be.

此外,通过伯克希尔,您还持有那些持续回购自家股票的公司的重要股份。这些计划给我们带来的好处随着股价下跌而增长:当股价低迷时,被投资公司用于回购的资金使我们对该公司的持股比例增加,其增幅超过股价较高时的情形。举例来说,可口可乐、《华盛顿邮报》和富国银行在过去几年以极低价格进行的回购,为伯克希尔带来的益处远大于如今在更高价格下进行的回购。

Furthermore, through Berkshire you own major positions in companies that consistently repurchase their shares. The benefits that these programs supply us grow as prices fall: When stock prices are low, the funds that an investee spends on repurchases increase our ownership of that company by a greater amount than is the case when prices are higher. For example, the repurchases that Coca-Cola, The Washington Post and Wells Fargo made in past years at very low prices benefitted Berkshire far more than do today's repurchases, made at loftier prices.

每年年末,伯克希尔约 97% 的股份都掌握在年初就持有这些股份的投资者手中。因此,他们是储蓄者。市场下跌时,他们应当感到高兴,因为下跌让我们和我们的被投企业得以更有利地配置资金。

At the end of every year, about 97% of Berkshire's shares are held by the same investors who owned them at the start of the year. That makes them savers. They should therefore rejoice when markets decline and allow both us and our investees to deploy funds more advantageously.

所以,当读到“股市下跌,投资者蒙受损失”这样的大字标题时,不妨一笑置之,并在心里把它改成:“股市下跌,做空投资者蒙受损失——但做多投资者却因此获益。”尽管写手们常常忽略这个老生常谈的道理,但市场上有买就有卖,一方受损,另一方必然受益。(正如高尔夫球赛里说的:“每一次推杆,总有人欢喜。”)

So smile when you read a headline that says "Investors lose as market falls." Edit it in your mind to " Dis investors lose as market falls -- but investors gain." Though writers often forget this truism, there is a buyer for every seller and what hurts one necessarily helps the other. (As they say in golf matches: "Every putt makes someone happy.")

我们从 1970 年代和 1980 年代许多股票和企业被低估的价格中获益巨大。当时,对投资过客不友好的市场,却对选择长期定居的人十分友好。近些年来,我们那些年采取的行动得到了验证,但新机会已寥寥无几。作为企业的“储蓄者”,伯克希尔持续寻找合理配置资本的途径,但要找到令我们确实兴奋的机会,或许还得等上一段时间。

We gained enormously from the low prices placed on many equities and businesses in the 1970s and 1980s. Markets that then were hostile to investment transients were friendly to those taking up permanent residence. In recent years, the actions we took in those decades have been validated, but we have found few new opportunities. In its role as a corporate "saver," Berkshire continually looks for ways to sensibly deploy capital, but it may be some time before we find opportunities that get us truly excited.

保险业务——概况

Insurance Operations -- Overview

然而,真正让我们兴奋的是保险业务。GEICO 正飞速发展,我们预计它将继续保持这一势头。不过,在我们详谈之前,先来讨论一下“浮存金”以及如何衡量其成本。除非你理解了这个主题,否则无法对伯克希尔的内在价值做出明智的判断。

What does excite us, however, is our insurance business. GEICO is flying, and we expect that it will continue to do so. Before we expound on that, though, let's discuss "float" and how to measure its cost. Unless you understand this subject, it will be impossible for you to make an informed judgment about Berkshire's intrinsic value.

首先说明,浮存金是我们持有但并不拥有的资金。在保险业务中,浮存金的产生是因为保费在赔付发生前就已收取,这段间隔有时会延续多年。在此期间,保险公司会投资这笔资金。通常,这种令人愉快的操作也伴随着一个不利面:保险公司收取的保费一般不足以覆盖其最终必须支付的赔付和费用。这导致公司出现“承保亏损”,而这正是浮存金的成本。如果长期来看,浮存金的成本低于公司通过其他途径获取资金所需承担的成本,那么这项保险业务便具有价值。但如果浮存金的成本高于市场利率,那这门生意就是个柠檬。

To begin with, float is money we hold but don't own. In an insurance operation, float arises because premiums are received before losses are paid, an interval that sometimes extends over many years. During that time, the insurer invests the money. Typically, this pleasant activity carries with it a downside: The premiums that an insurer takes in usually do not cover the losses and expenses it eventually must pay. That leaves it running an "underwriting loss," which is the cost of float. An insurance business has value if its cost of float over time is less than the cost the company would otherwise incur to obtain funds. But the business is a lemon if its cost of float is higher than market rates for money.

需要在此提醒一句:由于损失成本必须估算,保险公司在计算承保业绩时拥有极大的自由度,这让投资者很难算出公司真实的浮存金成本。估算误差可能非常巨大,这些误差通常是无心之失,但有时也并非如此。估算错误的后果会直接反映在利润里。经验丰富的观察者通常能察觉大规模的准备金计提错误,但普通公众一般只能接受公司披露的数字,而且有时我也会对大牌审计师默默认可的数字感到震惊。至于伯克希尔,查理和我在向你呈报承保业绩时力求保守,因为我们发现保险业的意外几乎都是坏事。

A caution is appropriate here: Because loss costs must be estimated, insurers have enormous latitude in figuring their underwriting results, and that makes it very difficult for investors to calculate a company's true cost of float. Estimating errors, usually innocent but sometimes not, can be huge. The consequences of these miscalculations flow directly into earnings. An experienced observer can usually detect large-scale errors in reserving, but the general public can typically do no more than accept what's presented, and at times I have been amazed by the numbers that big-name auditors have implicitly blessed. As for Berkshire, Charlie and I attempt to be conservative in presenting its underwriting results to you, because we have found that virtually all surprises in insurance are unpleasant ones.

如下表数字所示,伯克希尔的保险业务堪称大赢家。表中,我们以净损失准备金、损失调整准备金、承接再保险项下持有资金及未到期保费准备金之和,减去代理人余额、预付购置成本、预付税款及适用于承接再保险的递延费用,计算得出我们的浮存金——相对于保费规模,我们生成的浮存金数额巨大。我们的浮存金成本由承保亏损或利润决定。在那些实现承保利润的年份,比如过去五年,我们的浮存金成本为负。实际上,我们持有资金还获得了报酬。

As the numbers in the following table show, Berkshire's insurance business has been a huge winner. For the table, we have calculated our float -- which we generate in large amounts relative to our premium volume -- by adding net loss reserves, loss adjustment reserves, funds held under reinsurance assumed and unearned premium reserves, and then subtracting agents' balances, prepaid acquisition costs, prepaid taxes and deferred charges applicable to assumed reinsurance. Our cost of float is determined by our underwriting loss or profit. In those years when we have had an underwriting profit, such as the last five, our cost of float has been negative. In effect, we have been paid for holding money.

              (1)             (2)                            年末长期
          承保利润(亏损)     留存收益(亏损)                  约当收益率
              (1)            (2)                           Yearend Yield
         Underwriting                      Approximate      on Long-Term

Loss

Loss

Average Float

Average Float

资金成本

Cost of Funds

Govt. Bonds

Govt. Bonds

(单位:百万美元)(第 1 项与第 2 项之比)

(In $ Millions) (Ratio of 1 to 2)

年份利润金额亏损收益率
1967盈利17.3低于零5.50%
1968盈利19.9低于零5.90%
1969盈利23.4低于零6.79%
19700.3732.41.14%6.25%
1971盈利52.5低于零5.81%
1972盈利69.5低于零5.82%
1973盈利73.3低于零7.27%
19747.3679.19.30%8.13%
197511.3587.612.96%8.03%
1976盈利102.6低于零7.30%
1977盈利139.0低于零7.97%
1978盈利190.4低于零8.93%
1979盈利227.3低于零10.08%
1980盈利237.0低于零11.94%
1981盈利228.4低于零13.61%
198221.56220.69.77%10.64%
198333.87231.314.64%11.84%
198448.06253.218.98%11.58%
198544.23390.211.34%9.34%
198655.84797.57.00%7.60%
198755.431,266.74.38%8.95%
198811.081,497.70.74%9.00%
198924.401,541.31.58%7.97%
199026.651,637.31.63%8.24%
1991119.591,895.06.31%7.40%
1992108.962,290.44.76%7.39%
1993盈利2,624.7低于零6.35%
1994盈利3,056.6低于零7.88%
1995盈利3,607.2低于零5.95%
1996盈利6,702.0低于零6.64%
1997盈利7,093.1低于零5.92%
1967         profit          17.3         less than zero        5.50%
1968         profit          19.9         less than zero        5.90%
1969         profit          23.4         less than zero        6.79%
1970          0.37           32.4                  1.14%        6.25%
1971         profit          52.5         less than zero        5.81%
1972         profit          69.5         less than zero        5.82%
1973         profit          73.3         less than zero        7.27%
1974          7.36           79.1                  9.30%        8.13%
1975         11.35           87.6                 12.96%        8.03%
1976         profit         102.6         less than zero        7.30%
1977         profit         139.0         less than zero        7.97%
1978         profit         190.4         less than zero        8.93%
1979         profit         227.3         less than zero       10.08%
1980         profit         237.0         less than zero       11.94%
1981         profit         228.4         less than zero       13.61%
1982         21.56          220.6                  9.77%       10.64%
1983         33.87          231.3                 14.64%       11.84%
1984         48.06          253.2                 18.98%       11.58%
1985         44.23          390.2                 11.34%        9.34%
1986         55.84          797.5                  7.00%        7.60%
1987         55.43        1,266.7                  4.38%        8.95%
1988         11.08        1,497.7                  0.74%        9.00%
1989         24.40        1,541.3                  1.58%        7.97%
1990         26.65        1,637.3                  1.63%        8.24%
1991        119.59        1,895.0                  6.31%        7.40%
1992        108.96        2,290.4                  4.76%        7.39%
1993         profit       2,624.7         less than zero        6.35%
1994         profit       3,056.6         less than zero        7.88%
1995         profit       3,607.2         less than zero        5.95%
1996         profit       6,702.0         less than zero        6.64%
1997         profit       7,093.1         less than zero        5.92%

自 1967 年我们踏入保险业以来,浮存金以年复合增长率 21.7% 的速度扩张。更妙的是,它非但没让我们花费分毫,反而为我们赚了钱。这里存在一个会计上的反讽:尽管浮存金在资产负债表上被列为负债,但它在伯克希尔的价值却超过了同等金额的净资产。

Since 1967, when we entered the insurance business, our float has grown at an annual compounded rate of 21.7%. Better yet, it has cost us nothing, and in fact has made us money. Therein lies an accounting irony: Though our float is shown on our balance sheet as a liability, it has had a value to Berkshire greater than an equal amount of net worth would have had.

几份大合同的到期将导致我们的浮存金在 1998 年第一季度出现下降,但我们预期长期来看它会大幅增长。同时我们也相信,我们的浮存金成本将继续保持极为有利的水平。

The expiration of several large contracts will cause our float to decline during the first quarter of 1998, but we expect it to grow substantially over the long term. We also believe that our cost of float will continue to be highly favorable.

巨灾再保险

Super-Cat Insurance

但偶尔,我们的浮存金成本会急剧飙升。这源于我们在巨灾再保险业务上的深度参与,该业务本质上是所有保险险种中波动最大的。在此业务中,我们出售保单给保险公司和再保险公司,帮助它们在特大灾难发生时限制损失。伯克希尔是成熟买家的首选市场:当“大灾难”降临,巨灾再保险承保方的财务实力将受到考验,而伯克希尔在这方面无人能及。

Occasionally, however, the cost of our float will spike severely. That will occur because of our heavy involvement in the super-cat business, which by its nature is the most volatile of all insurance lines. In this operation, we sell policies that insurance and reinsurance companies purchase in order to limit their losses when mega-catastrophes strike. Berkshire is the preferred market for sophisticated buyers: When the "big one" hits, the financial strength of super-cat writers will be tested, and Berkshire has no peer in this respect.

由于真正的大型巨灾实属罕见,我们的巨灾再保险业务在多数年份应当会显示出可观的利润——但偶尔也会录得巨额亏损。换言之,这项巨灾再保险业务的吸引力需要多年时间才能衡量。然而,你们必须明白的是,巨灾再保险业务遭遇一个极其糟糕的年份并非可能性问题——而是必然事件。唯一的问题是它何时降临。

Since truly major catastrophes are rare occurrences, our super-cat business can be expected to show large profits in most years -- and to record a huge loss occasionally. In other words, the attractiveness of our super-cat business will take a great many years to measure. What you must understand, however, is that a truly terrible year in the super-cat business is not a possibility -- it's a certainty. The only question is when it will come.

去年,我们的巨灾再保险业务运气极佳。全球没有发生造成巨额保险赔付的灾难,所以我们几乎把收到的所有保费都直接计入了利润。然而,这一令人欣喜的结果也有阴暗的一面。许多“外行”投资者——即依赖销售人员的说辞而非自身的承保知识的那些人——通过购买名为“巨灾债券”的纸质凭证进入了再保险行业。不过,这个术语中的第二个词用在这里是个奥威尔式的误称:真正的债券要求发行人必须偿付;而这些债券,实际上是要求买方承担一种临时性偿付承诺的合同。

Last year, we were very lucky in our super-cat operation. The world suffered no catastrophes that caused huge amounts of insured damage, so virtually all premiums that we received dropped to the bottom line. This pleasant result has a dark side, however. Many investors who are "innocents" -- meaning that they rely on representations of salespeople rather than on underwriting knowledge of their own -- have come into the reinsurance business by means of purchasing pieces of paper that are called "catastrophe bonds." The second word in this term, though, is an Orwellian misnomer: A true bond obliges the issuer to pay; these bonds, in effect, are contracts that lay a provisional promise to pay on the purchaser .

这套绕来绕去的安排之所以出现,是因为合约的推销者想绕过一条法律——未获州政府牌照的机构不得承保保险。对推销者来说,还有个附带好处:把保险合同叫作“债券”,可能让不明就里的买家以为这类工具的风险比实际小得多。

This convoluted arrangement came into being because the promoters of the contracts wished to circumvent laws that prohibit the writing of insurance by entities that haven't been licensed by the state. A side benefit for the promoters is that calling the insurance contract a "bond" may also cause unsophisticated buyers to assume that these instruments involve far less risk than is actually the case.

真正超乎寻常的风险,若定价不当,便会潜伏于这些合同之中。然而,巨灾保险有一恶劣特性,即便定价严重失误,也可能很长时间不被察觉。举例说明,掷一对骰子得 12 点的概率是 36 分之 1。再假设每年掷一次骰子,你作为“债券买家”,若出现 12 点,同意支付 5000 万美元;而作为“承保”这一风险,你每年收取 100 万美元的“保费”。这意味着你已严重低估了风险。尽管如此,你仍可能连年自认为在赚钱——而且是轻松赚钱。事实上,你有 75.4% 的可能性连续十年分文不赔。但最终,你还是会破产。

Truly outsized risks will exist in these contracts if they are not properly priced. A pernicious aspect of catastrophe insurance, however, makes it likely that mispricing, even of a severe variety, will not be discovered for a very long time. Consider, for example, the odds of throwing a 12 with a pair of dice -- 1 out of 36. Now assume that the dice will be thrown once a year; that you, the "bond-buyer," agree to pay $50 million if a 12 appears; and that for "insuring" this risk you take in an annual "premium" of $1 million. That would mean you had significantly underpriced the risk. Nevertheless, you could go along for years thinking you were making money -- indeed, easy money. There is actually a 75.4% probability that you would go for a decade without paying out a dime. Eventually, however, you would go broke.

在骰子这个例子中,概率很容易算。但涉及超级飓风和地震的计算就必然模糊得多,伯克希尔能做的,只是估算这类事件的大致概率范围。缺乏精确数据,加上这类灾难罕见,正好让推销者有机可乘,他们通常会雇一位“专家”,来给潜在债券买家提供损失概率的建议。专家自己分文不押,只拿一笔预付费用——无论预测有多离谱,这笔钱永远归他。意料之中的是:只要赌注够大,总能找到一位专家来打包票——回到我们的例子——掷出 12 点的概率不是 1/36,而是接近 1/100。(公平地说,我们得补充一句,这位专家可能真信自己的概率是对的,这让他不那么可恶——但更危险。)

In this dice example, the odds are easy to figure. Calculations involving monster hurricanes and earthquakes are necessarily much fuzzier, and the best we can do at Berkshire is to estimate a range of probabilities for such events. The lack of precise data, coupled with the rarity of such catastrophes, plays into the hands of promoters, who typically employ an "expert" to advise the potential bond-buyer about the probability of losses. The expert puts no money on the table. Instead, he receives an up-front payment that is forever his no matter how inaccurate his predictions. Surprise: When the stakes are high, an expert can invariably be found who will affirm -- to return to our example -- that the chance of rolling a 12 is not 1 in 36, but more like 1 in 100. (In fairness, we should add that the expert will probably believe that his odds are correct, a fact that makes him less reprehensible -- but more dangerous.)

大量“投资者”资金涌入灾难债券——这些债券说不定真会名副其实——导致巨灾再保险价格明显恶化。因此,1998 年我们会减少这块业务。不过,我们手头还有几份多年期大额合同,能在一定程度上缓冲下滑。其中最大的是去年年报里提到的两份保单——一份覆盖佛罗里达州的飓风,另一份是与加州地震局签约、覆盖该州的地震。我们的“最坏情况”损失仍约为税后 6 亿美元,这也是 CEA 保单下我们可能承受的最大损失。虽然这个潜在损失听起来不小,但只占伯克希尔市值的 1% 左右。事实上,只要价格合适,我们愿意大幅提高“最坏情况”下的风险敞口。

The influx of "investor" money into catastrophe bonds -- which may well live up to their name -- has caused super-cat prices to deteriorate materially. Therefore, we will write less business in 1998. We have some large multi-year contracts in force, however, that will mitigate the drop. The largest of these are two policies that we described in last year's report -- one covering hurricanes in Florida and the other, signed with the California Earthquake Authority, covering earthquakes in that state. Our "worst-case" loss remains about $600 million after-tax, the maximum we could lose under the CEA policy. Though this loss potential may sound large, it is only about 1% of Berkshire's market value. Indeed, if we could get appropriate prices, we would be willing to significantly increase our "worst-case" exposure.

我们的巨灾再保险业务是阿吉特·贾恩从零起步发展起来的,他还以其他多种方式为伯克希尔的成功做出了贡献。阿吉特既有对定价不足的业务果断放手的原则性,又有随后发掘新机会的想象力。简单来说,他是伯克希尔的一大核心资产。无论选择哪条职业道路,阿吉特都会成为明星;对我们来说幸运的是,他热爱保险业。

Our super-cat business was developed from scratch by Ajit Jain, who has contributed to Berkshire's success in a variety of other ways as well. Ajit possesses both the discipline to walk away from business that is inadequately priced and the imagination to then find other opportunities. Quite simply, he is one of Berkshire's major assets. Ajit would have been a star in whatever career he chose; fortunately for us, he enjoys insurance.

保险 —— GEICO(1-800-555-2756)与其他主营业务

Insurance -- GEICO (1-800-555-2756) and Other Primary Operations

去年我写到了 GEICO 的托尼·奈斯利和他出色的管理才能。如果当时我早知道他在 1997 年会给我们带来什么,我肯定要找更夸张的词来形容他了。托尼现年 54 岁,已在 GEICO 工作 36 年,去年是他表现最好的一年。作为总裁兼首席执行官,他把愿景、活力和热情传递给了 GEICO 全体成员——让大家的目光不再局限于过去,而是放得更远。

Last year I wrote about GEICO's Tony Nicely and his terrific management skills. If I had known then what he had in store for us in 1997, I would have searched for still greater superlatives. Tony, now 54, has been with GEICO for 36 years and last year was his best. As CEO, he has transmitted vision, energy and enthusiasm to all members of the GEICO family -- raising their sights from what has

从已取得的成就望向未来可能达到的成就。

been achieved to what can be achieved.

我们衡量 GEICO 的业绩,首先看它的自愿汽车保单净增长(即不含州政府分配给我们的保单),其次看“成熟”汽车业务的盈利能力,即那些已投保超过一年、已度过获取成本导致亏损期的保单。1996 年,有效业务增长了 10%,我当时告诉你们我有多满意,因为这个速度远超过去二十年里我们见过的任何水平。接着,1997 年,增长率跃升至 16%。

We measure GEICO's performance by first, the net increase in its voluntary auto policies (that is, not including policies assigned us by the state) and, second, the profitability of "seasoned" auto business, meaning policies that have been with us for more than a year and are thus past the period in which acquisition costs cause them to be money-losers. In 1996, in-force business grew 10%, and I told you how pleased I was, since that rate was well above anything we had seen in two decades. Then, in 1997, growth jumped to 16%.

以下是过去五年的新业务与在保业务数据:

Below are the new business and in-force figures for the last five years:

新的自愿性自愿性汽车

New Voluntary Voluntary Auto

Years

Years

Auto Policies

Auto Policies

现行保险政策

Policies in Force

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

       1993              354,882           2,011,055    
       1994              396,217           2,147,549
       1995              461,608           2,310,037
       1996              617,669           2,543,699
       1997              913,176           2,949,439
       1993              354,882           2,011,055    
       1994              396,217           2,147,549
       1995              461,608           2,310,037
       1996              617,669           2,543,699
       1997              913,176           2,949,439

当然,任何保险公司如果对承保掉以轻心,都能快速扩张。不过,GEICO 今年的承保利润达到保费的 8.1%,远高于其平均水平。事实上,这个比例比我们期望的还要高:我们的目标是把低成本运营带来的大部分好处让利给客户,将承保利润控制在 4% 左右。基于这一点,我们在 1997 年略微下调了平均费率,今年可能还会再次下调。当然,费率调整因投保人及其居住地而异;我们力求制定能恰当反映每位驾驶员预期损失成本的费率。

Of course, any insurer can grow rapidly if it gets careless about underwriting. GEICO's underwriting profit for the year, though, was 8.1% of premiums, far above its average. Indeed, that percentage was higher than we wish it to be: Our goal is to pass on most of the benefits of our low-cost operation to our customers, holding ourselves to about 4% in underwriting profit. With that in mind, we reduced our average rates a bit during 1997 and may well cut them again this year. Our rate changes varied, of course, depending on the policyholder and where he lives; we strive to charge a rate that properly reflects the loss expectancy of each driver.

GEICO 并非当下唯一业绩亮眼的车险公司。去年,整个行业录得的利润远超预期,也难以为继。竞争加剧很快就会大幅挤压利润空间。但这一局面我们乐见其成:长远来看,艰难的市场对低成本运营商有利,而我们正是这样的运营商,也打算继续如此。

GEICO is not the only auto insurer obtaining favorable results these days. Last year, the industry recorded profits that were far better than it anticipated or can sustain. Intensified competition will soon squeeze margins very significantly. But this is a development we welcome: Long term, a tough market helps the low-cost operator, which is what we are and intend to remain.

去年我跟各位提过,GEICO 的员工们获得了创纪录的 16.9% 利润分成,并解释过决定这笔金额的两个简单变量:保单增长和成熟业务的盈利能力。我还进一步说明,1996 年的业绩太过出色,我们不得不扩大那张标明可能支付范围的图表。新的设计没能撑过 1997 年:我们再次扩大了图表的边界,并向我们 10500 名员工发放了相当于其基本薪酬 26.9% 的利润分成,总额达 7100 万美元。此外,同样这两个变量——保单增长和成熟业务的盈利能力——也决定了我们支付给数十名高管的现金奖金,从托尼开始。

Last year I told you about the record 16.9% profit-sharing contribution that GEICO's associates had earned and explained that two simple variables set the amount: policy growth and profitability of seasoned business. I further explained that 1996's performance was so extraordinary that we had to enlarge the chart delineating the possible payouts. The new configuration didn't make it through 1997: We enlarged the chart's boundaries again and awarded our 10,500 associates a profit-sharing contribution amounting to 26.9% of their base compensation, or $71 million. In addition, the same two variables -- policy growth and profitability of seasoned business -- determined the cash bonuses that we paid to dozens of top executives, starting with Tony.

在 GEICO,我们的薪酬方式既对股东负责,也对管理者有益。我们发放的是功绩勋章,而非彩票:在伯克希尔的任何子公司,我们都不将薪酬与公司股价挂钩,因为我们的员工无法实质性地影响股价。相反,我们将奖金与各部门的业务表现直接关联,这表现正是该部门人员工作的直接成果。当业绩出色时——正如 GEICO 一直以来的表现——查理和我最乐意做的就是开出一张大额支票。

At GEICO, we are paying in a way that makes sense for both our owners and our managers. We distribute merit badges, not lottery tickets: In none of Berkshire's subsidiaries do we relate compensation to our stock price, which our associates cannot affect in any meaningful way. Instead, we tie bonuses to each unit's business performance, which is the direct product of the unit's people. When that performance is terrific -- as it has been at GEICO -- there is nothing Charlie and I enjoy more than writing a big check.

GEICO 的承保利润在 1998 年可能会下滑,但公司的增长却可能提速。我们正打算踩油门:GEICO 今年的营销支出将超过 1 亿美元,比 1997 年增长 50%。目前我们的市场份额仅有 3%,这一渗透率在未来十年应会大幅攀升。汽车保险行业规模庞大——年业务量约达 1150 亿美元——而数以千万计的司机若转投我们,能省下大笔开支。

GEICO's underwriting profitability will probably fall in 1998, but the company's growth could accelerate. We're planning to step on the gas: GEICO's marketing expenditures this year will top $100 million, up 50% from 1997. Our market share today is only 3%, a level of penetration that should increase dramatically in the next decade. The auto insurance industry is huge -- it does about $115 billion of volume annually -- and there are tens of millions of drivers who would save substantial money by switching to us.

  • * * * * * * * * * * *
  • * * * * * * * * * * *

在 1995 年的年报中,我曾描述你和我在洛里默·戴维森身上欠下的巨大恩情。1951 年初的一个星期六,他耐心地向我讲解了 GEICO 及其行业的里里外外——当时我是个 20 岁的陌生人,未经邀请、未打招呼就来到 GEICO 总部。戴维后来成为该公司的首席执行官,并在 47 年里始终是我的朋友和老师。要不是他的慷慨与智慧,GEICO 为伯克希尔带来的丰厚回报根本无从谈起。事实上,假如我没遇见戴维,我或许永远不会真正理解整个保险领域,而多年来,这个领域在伯克希尔的成功中扮演了如此关键的角色。

In the 1995 report, I described the enormous debt that you and I owe to Lorimer Davidson. On a Saturday early in 1951, he patiently explained the ins and outs of both GEICO and its industry to me -- a 20-year-old stranger who'd arrived at GEICO's headquarters uninvited and unannounced. Davy later became the company's CEO and has remained my friend and teacher for 47 years. The huge rewards that GEICO has heaped on Berkshire would not have materialized had it not been for his generosity and wisdom. Indeed, had I not met Davy, I might never have grown to understand the whole field of insurance, which over the years has played such a key part in Berkshire's success.

戴维去年满 95 岁,出门旅行对他来说已经很吃力。尽管如此,托尼和我还是希望可以说服他来参加我们的股东大会,好让股东们有机会当面感谢他为伯克希尔做出的重要贡献。祝我们好运吧。

Davy turned 95 last year, and it's difficult for him to travel. Nevertheless, Tony and I hope that we can persuade him to attend our annual meeting, so that our shareholders can properly thank him for his important contributions to Berkshire. Wish us luck.

  • * * * * * * * * * * *
  • * * * * * * * * * * *

当然,尽管这些业务规模远不及 GEICO,我们其余的主要保险业务在去年交出的成绩单,合在一起看,同样令人惊叹。国民赔偿公司的传统业务实现了 32.9% 的承保利润,而且一如既往,相比保费规模,积累了大量的浮存金。过去三年,由唐·沃斯特负责的这一业务板块,利润率达到 24.3%。我们的本州业务,由罗德·埃尔德里奇管理,尽管持续承担地域扩张的费用,仍录得 14.1% 的承保利润。罗德这三年的成绩堪称惊人,达到 15.1%。伯克希尔的工伤保险业务,由布拉德·金斯特勒在加州负责,在艰难的环境中出现了小幅承保亏损;其三年承保记录为正向的 1.5%。约翰·凯泽在中央各州保险公司,在创造良好承保收益的同时,刷新了业务量纪录。在堪萨斯银行家保证保险公司,唐·托尔的表现更是超出了我们在 1996 年收购该公司时的殷切期望。

Though they are, of course, far smaller than GEICO, our other primary insurance operations turned in results last year that, in aggregate, were fully as stunning. National Indemnity's traditional business had an underwriting profit of 32.9% and, as usual, developed a large amount of float compared to premium volume. Over the last three years, this segment of our business, run by Don Wurster, has had a profit of 24.3%. Our homestate operation, managed by Rod Eldred, recorded an underwriting profit of 14.1% even though it continued to absorb the expenses of geographical expansion. Rod's three-year record is an amazing 15.1%. Berkshire's workers' compensation business, run out of California by Brad Kinstler, had a modest underwriting loss in a difficult environment; its three-year underwriting record is a positive 1.5%. John Kizer, at Central States Indemnity, set a new volume record while generating good underwriting earnings. At Kansas Bankers Surety, Don Towle more than lived up to the high expectations we had when we purchased the company in 1996.

这五家公司在总体上实现了 15.0% 的承保利润。两位唐(Don)以及罗德(Rod)、布拉德(Brad)和约翰(John),为伯克希尔创造了巨大价值,我们相信未来还会有更多。

In aggregate, these five operations recorded an underwriting profit of 15.0%. The two Dons, along with Rod, Brad and John, have created significant value for Berkshire, and we believe there is more to come.

报告利润的来源

Sources of Reported Earnings

下表列出了伯克希尔报告利润的主要来源。在这份展示中,收购会计调整并未分配到对应的具体业务,而是汇总后单独列示。这种处理方式,能让各位看到若我们未收购这些企业,它们的利润原本会如何呈现。基于第 69 页和第 70 页讨论的原因,我们认为这种呈现形式,对投资者和管理者而言,比采用公认会计原则(GAAP)要求逐项业务摊销收购溢价的做法更为实用。当然,表中列示的利润总额,与经审计财务报表中的 GAAP 总额完全一致。

The table that follows shows the main sources of Berkshire's reported earnings. In this presentation, purchase-accounting adjustments are not assigned to the specific businesses to which they apply, but are instead aggregated and shown separately. This procedure lets you view the earnings of our businesses as they would have been reported had we not purchased them. For the reasons discussed on pages 69 and 70, this form of presentation seems to us to be more useful to investors and managers than one utilizing generally-accepted accounting principles (GAAP), which require purchase-premiums to be charged off business-by-business. The total earnings we show in the table are, of course, identical to the GAAP total in our audited financial statements.

(in millions)

(in millions)

伯克希尔的净收益份额(税后及

Berkshire's Share of Net Earnings (after taxes and

税前利润

Pre-Tax Earnings

minority interests)

minority interests)

1997
1996
1997
1996
1997
1996
1997
1996
税前收益(扣除少数股东权益) 1997 1996 1997 1996 营业收益:保险集团:承保 -- 超级巨灾 $ 283.0 $ 167.0 $ 182.7 $ 107.4
承保业务——其他再保险 (155.2) (174.8) (100.1) (112.4)
承保业务——GEICO 280.7 171.4 181.1 110.2
承保业务——其他主营业务 52.9 58.5 34.1 37.6
净投资收益 882.3 726.2 703.6 593.1
布法罗新闻 55.9 50.4 32.7 29.5
金融业务 28.1 23.1 18.0 14.9
FlightSafety 139.5 3.1(1) 84.4 1.9(1)
家居用品 56.8(2) 43.8 32.2(2) 24.8
珠宝 31.6 27.8 18.3 16.1
斯科特·费策(不含金融业务) 118.9 121.7 77.3 81.6
喜诗糖果 58.6 51.9 35.0 30.8
鞋类集团 48.8 61.6 32.2 41.0
购买会计调整 (104.9) (75.7) (97.0) (70.5)
利息费用(3) (106.6) (94.3) (67.1) (56.6)
股东指定捐款 (15.4) (13.3) (9.9) (8.5)
其他 60.7 73.0 37.0 42.2
营业收益 1,715.7 1,221.4 1,194.5 883.1
投资资本利得 1,111.9 2,484.5 707.1 1,605.5
所有实体总盈利 $2,827.6 $3,705.9 $1,901.6 $2,488.6
======== ======== ======== ========
Pre-Tax Earnings minority interests) 1997 1996 1997 1996 Operating Earnings: Insurance Group: Underwriting -- Super-Cat $ 283.0 $ 167.0 $ 182.7 $ 107.4
Underwriting -- Other Reinsurance (155.2) (174.8) (100.1) (112.4)
Underwriting -- GEICO 280.7 171.4 181.1 110.2
Underwriting -- Other Primary 52.9 58.5 34.1 37.6
Net Investment Income 882.3 726.2 703.6 593.1
Buffalo News 55.9 50.4 32.7 29.5
Finance Businesses 28.1 23.1 18.0 14.9
FlightSafety 139.5 3.1(1) 84.4 1.9(1)
Home Furnishings 56.8(2) 43.8 32.2(2) 24.8
Jewelry 31.6 27.8 18.3 16.1
Scott Fetzer(excluding finance operation). 118.9 121.7 77.3 81.6
See's Candies 58.6 51.9 35.0 30.8
Shoe Group 48.8 61.6 32.2 41.0
Purchase-Accounting Adjustments (104.9) (75.7) (97.0) (70.5)
Interest Expense(3) (106.6) (94.3) (67.1) (56.6)
Shareholder-Designated Contributions (15.4) (13.3) (9.9) (8.5)
Other 60.7 73.0 37.0 42.2
Operating Earnings 1,715.7 1,221.4 1,194.5 883.1
Capital Gains from Investments 1,111.9 2,484.5 707.1 1,605.5
Total Earnings - All Entities $2,827.6 $3,705.9 $1,901.6 $2,488.6
======== ======== ======== ========

(1)自收购之日(1996 年 12 月 23 日)起计算。

(1) From date of acquisition, December 23, 1996.

(2)包含自 1997 年 7 月 1 日起的 Star 家具公司。

(2) Includes Star Furniture from July 1, 1997.

(3)不含金融业务利息支出。

(3) Excludes interest expense of Finance Businesses.

总体来看,我们的各项业务持续表现优异,远超行业常规水平。特别让我们欣喜的是,赫尔兹伯格钻石在经历了令人失望的 1996 年后,利润于今年有所回升。公司首席执行官杰夫·科门特在 1997 年初果断采取措施,使公司在关键的圣诞季赢得了实实在在的增长势头。今年年初至今,销售势头也依然强劲。

Overall, our operating businesses continue to perform exceptionally well, far outdoing their industry norms. We are particularly pleased that profits improved at Helzberg's after a disappointing 1996. Jeff Comment, Helzberg's CEO, took decisive steps early in 1997 that enabled the company to gain real momentum by the crucial Christmas season. In the early part of this year, as well, sales remained strong.

不熟悉内情的人可能无法体会我们许多业务的卓越表现:如果把《布法罗新闻》或斯科特-费泽的盈利历史与它们上市的同行相比,它们的业绩或许显得平平无奇。但大多数上市公司会保留三分之二甚至更多的盈利来支撑自身扩张,而伯克希尔的这些子公司,却把 100% 的盈利上缴给我们母公司,用于我们的发展。

Casual observers may not appreciate just how extraordinary the performance of many of our businesses has been: If the earnings history of, say, Buffalo News or Scott Fetzer is compared to the records of their publicly-owned peers, their performance might seem to have been unexceptional. But most public companies retain two-thirds or more of their earnings to fund their corporate growth. In contrast, those Berkshire subsidiaries have paid 100% of their earnings to us, their parent company, to fund our growth.

实质上,上市公司的业绩记录反映的是其留存收益累积带来的好处,而我们旗下运营子公司的业绩则没有这种增益。然而,随着时间推移,这些子公司分配的收益已在伯克希尔的其他地方创造了极为庞大的盈利能力。仅《布法罗新闻》、喜诗糖果和斯科特-费泽这三家公司,就向我们支付了 18 亿美元,我们已将这些资金在其他地方有效运用。我们对这些公司管理层的感激之情,远不止于表格中详列的收益数字。

In effect, the records of the public companies reflect the cumulative benefits of the earnings they have retained, while the records of our operating subsidiaries get no such boost. Over time, however, the earnings these subsidiaries have distributed have created truly huge amounts of earning power elsewhere in Berkshire. The News, See's and Scott Fetzer have alone paid us $1.8 billion, which we have gainfully employed elsewhere. We owe their managements our gratitude for much more than the earnings that are detailed in the table.

关于我们各业务板块的更多信息,详见第 36 至 50 页,你还可以在那里找到按公认会计原则(GAAP)口径报告的部门利润。此外,在第 55 至 61 页,我们把伯克希尔的财务数据按非 GAAP 口径重新整理为四个板块,这种呈现方式与查理和我的思考角度一致。我们的意图是,把假如我们互换位置、我们希望你们提供给我们的财务信息,提供给你们。

Additional information about our various businesses is given on pages 36 - 50, where you will also find our segment earnings reported on a GAAP basis. In addition, on pages 55 - 61, we have rearranged Berkshire's financial data into four segments on a non-GAAP basis, a presentation that corresponds to the way Charlie and I think about the company. Our intent is to supply you with the financial information that we would wish you to give us if our positions were reversed.

透视盈余

Look-Through Earnings

账面利润并不能很好地衡量伯克希尔的经营进展,原因之一在于先前表格中显示的数字仅包含我们从被投资公司获得的股息——尽管这些股息通常只占我们持股对应利润的一小部分。我们并不介意这种资金分配方式,因为总体而言,我们认为被投资公司未分配的利润比已派发的部分对我们更有价值。原因很简单:我们的被投资公司常常有机会以高回报率再投资这些利润。那何必非要让它们派发出来呢?

Reported earnings are a poor measure of economic progress at Berkshire, in part because the numbers shown in the table presented earlier include only the dividends we receive from investees -- though these dividends typically represent only a small fraction of the earnings attributable to our ownership. Not that we mind this division of money, since on balance we regard the undistributed earnings of investees as more valuable to us than the portion paid out. The reason is simple: Our investees often have the opportunity to reinvest earnings at high rates of return. So why should we want them paid out?

不过,要让伯克希尔的盈利状况更贴近经济现实,我们采用了“透视盈余”这个概念。按我们的算法,它由以下几部分构成:(1)上一节报告的经营利润,加上(2)我们对主要被投资公司留存经营利润所占的份额——根据通用会计准则,这部分并未反映在我们的利润中,减去(3)若这些被投资公司的留存收益改为分配给我们,伯克希尔需为此缴纳的税款准备金。在此计算“经营利润”时,我们排除了收购会计调整、资本利得及其他重大非经常性项目。

To depict something closer to economic reality at Berkshire than reported earnings, though, we employ the concept of "look-through" earnings. As we calculate these, they consist of: (1) the operating earnings reported in the previous section, plus; (2) our share of the retained operating earnings of major investees that, under GAAP accounting, are not reflected in our profits, less; (3) an allowance for the tax that would be paid by Berkshire if these retained earnings of investees had instead been distributed to us. When tabulating "operating earnings" here, we exclude purchase-accounting adjustments as well as capital gains and other major non-recurring items.

下表列出我们 1997 年的透视盈余,不过我要提醒你,这些数字只能算是近似值,因为它们建立在许多主观判断之上。(这些被投资公司派发给我们的股息,已计入第 11 页列示的经营利润中,大部分归在“保险集团:净投资收益”项下。)

The following table sets forth our 1997 look-through earnings, though I warn you that the figures can be no more than approximate, since they are based on a number of judgment calls. (The dividends paid to us by these investees have been included in the operating earnings itemized on page 11, mostly under "Insurance Group: Net Investment Income.")

伯克希尔在未分配经营利润中所占的份额

Berkshire's Share of Undistributed Berkshire's Approximate Operating Earnings

伯克希尔的重大投资对象

Berkshire's Major Investees

年末持股情况(1)

Ownership at Yearend(1)

(in millions) (2)

(in millions)(2)

公司名称持股比例买入成本(百万美元)
美国运通公司10.7%161
可口可乐公司8.1%216
华特迪士尼公司3.2%65
房利美8.6%86
吉列公司8.6%82
《华盛顿邮报》公司16.5%30
富国银行7.8%103
American Express Company              10.7%                      $161
The Coca-Cola Company                  8.1%                       216
The Walt Disney Company                3.2%                        65
Freddie Mac                            8.6%                        86
The Gillette Company                   8.6%                        82
The Washington Post Company           16.5%                        30
Wells Fargo & Company                  7.8%                       103

------

------

伯克希尔在主要被投资公司未分配收益中的份额 743 
这些未分配被投资公司收益的假设税项(3) (105)
伯克希尔报告的经营利润 1,292
Berkshire's share of undistributed earnings of major investees    743 
Hypothetical tax on these undistributed investee earnings(3)     (105)
Reported operating earnings of Berkshire                        1,292

------

------

伯克希尔的透视盈余合计为 1930 万美元。

Total look-through earnings of Berkshire $1,930

======

======

(1)不含归属于少数股东权益的股份;(2)按年内平均持股比例计算;(3)所用税率 14%,即伯克希尔就所收股息实际缴纳的税率。

(1) Does not include shares allocable to minority interests (2) Calculated on average ownership for the year (3) The tax rate used is 14%, which is the rate Berkshire pays on the dividends it receives

Acquisitions of 1997

Acquisitions of 1997

1997 年,我们同意收购星家具公司和国际冰雪皇后公司(该交易于 1998 年初完成)。两家企业完全符合我们的标准:业务易于理解,经济状况极佳,并由杰出的人才管理。

In 1997, we agreed to acquire Star Furniture and International Dairy Queen (a deal that closed early in 1998). Both businesses fully meet our criteria: They are understandable; possess excellent economics; and are run by outstanding people.

星座公司(Star)这笔交易有个有趣的来历。每当我们买下某个行业,而我对其主要参与者并不熟悉时,我总会问新合作伙伴:“你们家里还有像你这样的吗?”因此,1983 年我们收购内布拉斯加家具城时,布拉姆金家族向我介绍了美国其他地区三家出色的家具零售商。然而,当时没有一家愿意出售。

The Star transaction has an interesting history. Whenever we buy into an industry whose leading participants aren't known to me, I always ask our new partners, "Are there any more at home like you?" Upon our purchase of Nebraska Furniture Mart in 1983, therefore, the Blumkin family told me about three outstanding furniture retailers in other parts of the country. At the time, however, none was for sale.

多年后,欧文·布鲁姆金得知,我们推荐的三家中有一家 R.C. 威利公司的首席执行官比尔·查尔德可能有合并意向,我们随即按 1995 年年报所述完成了交易。我们对这次合作非常满意——比尔是理想的合作伙伴。此外,当我们向比尔询问业内杰出企业时,他提到了布鲁姆金一家曾向我推荐过的另外两家,其中之一是休斯顿的明星家具公司。但时光流逝,这两家都没有任何出售的迹象。

Many years later, Irv Blumkin learned that Bill Child, CEO of R.C. Willey -- one of the recommended three -- might be interested in merging, and we promptly made the deal described in the 1995 report. We have been delighted with that association -- Bill is the perfect partner. Furthermore, when we asked Bill about industry standouts, he came up with the remaining two names given me by the Blumkins, one of these being Star Furniture of Houston. But time went by without there being any indication that either of the two was available.

然而,在去年股东大会前的那个星期四,所罗门公司的鲍勃·德纳姆告诉我,星牌公司长期控股股东兼首席执行官梅尔文·沃尔夫想找我谈谈。应我们邀请,梅尔文来到了股东大会,并在奥马哈度过了几天,确认了他对伯克希尔的好感。与此同时,我查阅了星牌公司的财务报表,对其状况很满意。

On the Thursday before last year's annual meeting, however, Bob Denham of Salomon told me that Melvyn Wolff, the long-time controlling shareholder and CEO of Star, wanted to talk. At our invitation, Melvyn came to the meeting and spent his time in Omaha confirming his positive feelings about Berkshire. I, meanwhile, looked at Star's financials, and liked what I saw.

几天后,梅尔文和我在纽约会面,仅用一次两小时的会谈就达成了交易。和布拉姆金一家及比尔·蔡尔德的情况一样,我无需核查租约、敲定雇佣合同等事宜。我知道自己面对的是一个正直的人,这才是关键。

A few days later, Melvyn and I met in New York and made a deal in a single, two-hour session. As was the case with the Blumkins and Bill Child, I had no need to check leases, work out employment contracts, etc. I knew I was dealing with a man of integrity and that's what counted.

虽然沃尔夫家族与星辰珠宝行(Star)的合作可以追溯到 1924 年,但业务直到 1962 年梅尔文(Melvyn)和他的妹妹雪莉·图明(Shirley Toomin)接手后才走上正轨。如今,星辰珠宝行经营着 12 家门店——其中 10 家在休斯敦,奥斯汀和布莱恩各 1 家——并且不久也将进军圣安东尼奥。如果十年后星辰珠宝行的规模比现在大好几倍,我们不会感到意外。

Though the Wolff family's association with Star dates back to 1924, the business struggled until Melvyn and his sister Shirley Toomin took over in 1962. Today Star operates 12 stores -- ten in Houston and one each in Austin and Bryan -- and will soon move into San Antonio as well. We won't be surprised if Star is many times its present size a decade from now.

有一个故事可以说明梅尔文和雪莉的为人:当他们把出售消息告诉同事时,还宣布星光公司将向帮助过他们成功的人支付大笔特别款项——而他们定义的这一群体涵盖全体员工。按照我们交易的条件,这笔资金来自梅尔文和雪莉自己的腰包,而非我们。查理和我非常乐意与这样行事的人成为合伙人。

Here's a story illustrating what Melvyn and Shirley are like: When they told their associates of the sale, they also announced that Star would make large, special payments to those who had helped them succeed -- and then defined that group as everyone in the business. Under the terms of our deal, it was Melvyn and Shirley's money, not ours, that funded this distribution. Charlie and I love it when we become partners with people who behave like that.

星牌的交易于 7 月 1 日完成。此后几个月,我们观察到星牌本已出色的销售和盈利增长进一步提速。梅尔文和雪莉将出席股东大会,希望你有机会见到他们。

The Star transaction closed on July 1. In the months since, we've watched Star's already-excellent sales and earnings growth accelerate further. Melvyn and Shirley will be at the annual meeting, and I hope you get a chance to meet them.

下一桩收购:国际冰雪皇后(International Dairy Queen)。目前有 5792 家冰雪皇后门店在 23 个国家运营,除少数几家外全部由加盟商经营。此外,冰雪皇后国际还授权了 409 家橘子朱利叶斯(Orange Julius)门店和 43 家 Karmelkorn 门店。在 190 家门店中,“甜品中心”提供三种产品的某种组合。

Next acquisition: International Dairy Queen. There are 5,792 Dairy Queen stores operating in 23 countries -- all but a handful run by franchisees -- and in addition IDQ franchises 409 Orange Julius operations and 43 Karmelkorn operations. In 190 locations, "treat centers" provide some combination of the three products.

多年间,IDQ 的历程颇为坎坷。1970 年,由约翰·穆蒂和鲁迪·卢瑟领导的明尼阿波利斯团队接管了公司。新管理层接手时,公司特许经营协议杂乱无章,部分融资安排也欠妥当,导致企业处境艰难。此后数年,管理层重振旗鼓,优化运营,将餐饮服务扩展至更多网点,总体上打造了一个强有力的组织。

For many years IDQ had a bumpy history. Then, in 1970, a Minneapolis group led by John Mooty and Rudy Luther took control. The new managers inherited a jumble of different franchising agreements, along with some unwise financing arrangements that had left the company in a precarious condition. In the years that followed, management rationalized the operation, extended food service to many more locations, and, in general, built a strong organization.

去年夏天,卢瑟先生去世了,这意味着他的遗产需要出售股票。一年前,威廉·布莱尔公司的迪克·基法特把我介绍给了约翰·穆蒂和迈克·沙利文,后者是 IDQ 的首席执行官,我对这两人印象都很深。所以,当我们有机会与 IDQ 合并时,我们提出了一个仿照收购飞安国际的方案,给予出售股票的股东选择权,可以选择现金,也可以选择当时价值略低的伯克希尔股票。通过这样调整对价,我们鼓励股东选择现金,这也是我们更偏好的支付方式。即便如此,也只有 45% 的 IDQ 股东选择了现金。

Last summer Mr. Luther died, which meant his estate needed to sell stock. A year earlier, Dick Kiphart of William Blair & Co., had introduced me to John Mooty and Mike Sullivan, IDQ's CEO, and I had been impressed with both men. So, when we got the chance to merge with IDQ, we offered a proposition patterned on our FlightSafety acquisition, extending selling shareholders the option of choosing either cash or Berkshire shares having a slightly lower immediate value. By tilting the consideration as we did, we encouraged holders to opt for cash, the type of payment we by far prefer. Even then, only 45% of IDQ shares elected cash.

查理和我为这笔交易带来了一点产品方面的经验:他几十年来一直是明尼苏达州卡斯湖和伯米吉的冰雪皇后(Dairy Queen)常客,而我则是奥马哈的常客。我们是拿真金白银投了票的。

Charlie and I bring a modicum of product expertise to this transaction: He has been patronizing the Dairy Queens in Cass Lake and Bemidji, Minnesota, for decades, and I have been a regular in Omaha. We have put our money where our mouth is.

A Confession

A Confession

我曾提过,在收购中我们极为倾向于使用现金而非伯克希尔股票。回顾历史记录就能明白原因:如果你将我们所有纯股票并购(不包括与两家关联公司——多元化零售公司和蓝筹印花的交易)汇总来看,你会发现,若当初我没有进行这些交易,股东们的境况会略好一些。虽然承认这一点让我难受,但每当我发行股票时,确实让你们损失了钱财。

I've mentioned that we strongly prefer to use cash rather than Berkshire stock in acquisitions. A study of the record will tell you why: If you aggregate all of our stock-only mergers (excluding those we did with two affiliated companies, Diversified Retailing and Blue Chip Stamps), you will find that our shareholders are slightly worse off than they would have been had I not done the transactions. Though it hurts me to say it, when I've issued stock, I've cost you money.

有一点要说清楚:这笔成本并不是因为卖家在哪个环节误导了我们,或者他们此后经营懈怠、缺乏能力才发生的。恰恰相反,从谈判交易起,卖家就完全坦诚,之后也一直尽心尽力,干得很有成效。

Be clear about one thing: This cost has not occurred because we were misled in any way by sellers or because they thereafter failed to manage with diligence and skill. On the contrary, the sellers were completely candid when we were negotiating our deals and have been energetic and effective ever since.

相反,我们的问题在于,我们拥有一批堪称卓越的企业组合,这意味着为了换取新事物而出让其中任何一部分几乎从未合理过。在合并时发行股份,我们会稀释你们在我们所有企业中的持股比例——包括可口可乐、吉列和美国运通等部分持股公司,以及我们所有出色的运营公司。一个体育界的例子能说明我们面临的困境:对于棒球队来说,签下一名预期打击率能达到 .350 的球员几乎总是件大喜事——除非球队为了达成交易必须交易掉一位 .380 的击球手。

Instead, our problem has been that we own a truly marvelous collection of businesses, which means that trading away a portion of them for something new almost never makes sense. When we issue shares in a merger, we reduce your ownership in all of our businesses -- partly-owned companies such as Coca-Cola, Gillette and American Express, and all of our terrific operating companies as well. An example from sports will illustrate the difficulty we face: For a baseball team, acquiring a player who can be expected to bat .350 is almost always a wonderful event -- except when the team must trade a .380 hitter to make the deal.

因为我们的队伍里尽是些击球率高达 .380 的强打者,我们一直力求用现金收购,在这方面我们的成绩要好得多。从 1967 年的国民赔偿公司开始,再到喜诗糖果、《布法罗新闻》、斯科特-费泽和 GEICO 等公司,我们用现金收购了一系列大型企业,它们自买入以来表现极为出色。这些收购为伯克希尔带来了巨大价值——事实上,远超我当初购买时的预期。

Because our roster is filled with .380 hitters, we have tried to pay cash for acquisitions, and here our record has been far better. Starting with National Indemnity in 1967, and continuing with, among others, See's, Buffalo News, Scott Fetzer and GEICO, we have acquired -- for cash -- a number of large businesses that have performed incredibly well since we bought them. These acquisitions have delivered Berkshire tremendous value -- indeed, far more than I anticipated when we made our purchases.

我们相信,想从现有业务和管理层“换更好的”几乎不可能。我们的处境和卡米洛特王国的莫德雷德恰恰相反——桂妮薇儿评价他说:“我能为他说的唯一好话是,他注定能攀上高枝。谁都在他之上。”对伯克希尔来说,攀高枝极其艰难。

We believe that it is almost impossible for us to "trade up" from our present businesses and managements. Our situation is the opposite of Camelot's Mordred, of whom Guenevere commented, "The one thing I can say for him is that he is bound to marry well. Everybody is above him." Marrying well is extremely difficult for Berkshire.

所以你们可以放心,我和查理将来对发行股票会非常不情愿。在我们确实不得不这么做的情况下——比如某些我们心仪的收购对象,其股东坚持要股票——我们会准备一个有吸引力的现金选项,尽量让尽可能多的卖方选择拿现金。

So you can be sure that Charlie and I will be very reluctant to issue shares in the future. In those cases when we simply must do so -- when certain shareholders of a desirable acquiree insist on getting stock -- we will include an attractive cash option in order to tempt as many of the sellers to take cash as is possible.

并购上市公司对我们来说有个特别的问题。如果要给被收购方支付溢价,必须满足两个条件之一:要么我们的股票相对于被收购方被高估了,要么两家公司合并后预期能比分开经营赚得更多。历史上,伯克希尔的股票很少被高估。而且,在当前市场,低估值的收购标的几乎找不到。另一种可能——协同效应——通常也不现实,因为我们期望收购方在被我们买下后,经营方式跟之前一模一样。加入伯克希尔通常既不会增加他们的收入,也不会削减他们的成本。

Merging with public companies presents a special problem for us. If we are to offer any premium to the acquiree, one of two conditions must be present: Either our own stock must be overvalued relative to the acquiree's, or the two companies together must be expected to earn more than they would if operated separately. Historically, Berkshire has seldom been overvalued. In this market, moreover, undervalued acquirees are almost impossible to find. That other possibility -- synergy gains -- is usually unrealistic, since we expect acquirees to operate after we've bought them just as they did before. Joining with Berkshire does not normally raise their revenues nor cut their costs.

事实上,如果被收购公司此前一直将股票期权作为薪酬方案的一部分,那么在它们被伯克希尔收购后,其报告的成本(而非真实成本)将会上升。在这些情况下,被收购公司的“盈利”被夸大了,因为它们遵循了标准的——但依我们看是彻底错误的——会计惯例,即忽视了企业发行期权的成本。当伯克希尔收购一家发行期权的公司时,我们会立即替换为经济价值与此前期权计划相当的现金薪酬方案。这样一来,被收购公司真实的薪酬成本就被公开披露,并应计入盈利中予以扣除。

Indeed, their reported costs (but not their true ones) will rise after they are bought by Berkshire if the acquiree has been granting options as part of its compensation packages. In these cases, "earnings" of the acquiree have been overstated because they have followed the standard -- but, in our view, dead wrong -- accounting practice of ignoring the cost to a business of issuing options. When Berkshire acquires an option-issuing company, we promptly substitute a cash compensation plan having an economic value equivalent to that of the previous option plan. The acquiree's true compensation cost is thereby brought out of the closet and charged, as it should be, against earnings.

伯克希尔对上市公司合并所采用的推理,应当成为所有买家的衡量标准。支付收购溢价对任何收购方来说都不划算,除非出现以下两种情况:其一,收购方股票相对被收购方估值偏高;其二,两家企业合并后盈利超过各自独立经营之和。可以预见,收购方通常坚持第二种理由,因为很少有人愿意承认自家股票被高估。然而,那些贪婪的买家——股票发行速度快过印钞——实际上已默许了这一点。(他们往往还在操办华尔街式的连锁信骗局。)

The reasoning that Berkshire applies to the merger of public companies should be the calculus for all buyers. Paying a takeover premium does not make sense for any acquirer unless a) its stock is overvalued relative to the acquiree's or b) the two enterprises will earn more combined than they would separately. Predictably, acquirers normally hew to the second argument because very few are willing to acknowledge that their stock is overvalued. However, voracious buyers -- the ones that issue shares as fast as they can print them -- are tacitly conceding that point. (Often, also, they are running Wall Street's version of a chain-letter scheme.)

有些并购确实存在显著的协同效应——尽管收购方往往为获取这些效应支付过高的代价——但在其他情况下,预计的成本和收入好处最终被证明不过是幻影。不过,有一件事可以肯定:如果首席执行官对一项特别愚蠢的收购热情高涨,无论是他的内部员工还是外部顾问,都会想出各种预测来支持他的立场。只有童话里,皇帝才被告知自己没穿衣服。

In some mergers there truly are major synergies -- though oftentimes the acquirer pays too much to obtain them -- but at other times the cost and revenue benefits that are projected prove illusory. Of one thing, however, be certain: If a CEO is enthused about a particularly foolish acquisition, both his internal staff and his outside advisors will come up with whatever projections are needed to justify his stance. Only in fairy tales are emperors told that they are naked.

普通股投资

Common Stock Investments

下面列出我们的普通股投资。市值超过 7.5 亿美元的项目已逐项列出。

Below we present our common stock investments. Those with a market value of more than $750 million are itemized.

12/31/97
12/31/97

Shares

Shares

Company

Company

Cost*

Cost*

Market

Market

(单位:百万美元)

(dollars in millions)

    49,456,900  美国运通公司        1,392.7 万美元    4,414.0 万美元
   200,000,000  可口可乐公司        1,298.9 万美元    13,337.5 万美元
    21,563,414  华特迪士尼公司      381.2 万美元      2,134.8 万美元
    63,977,600  房地美公司          329.4 万美元      2,683.1 万美元
    48,000,000  吉列公司            600.0 万美元      4,821.0 万美元
    23,733,198  旅行者集团          604.4 万美元      1,278.6 万美元
     1,727,765  《华盛顿邮报》公司   10.6 万美元        840.6 万美元
     6,690,218  富国银行            412.6 万美元      2,270.9 万美元
                其他公司            2,177.1 万美元    4,467.2 万美元
                                 ---------        ----------
                普通股总计          7,206.9 万美元    36,247.7 万美元
                                 =========        ==========
    49,456,900  American Express Company     $1,392.7   $  4,414.0
   200,000,000  The Coca-Cola Company         1,298.9     13,337.5
    21,563,414  The Walt Disney Company         381.2      2,134.8
    63,977,600  Freddie Mac                     329.4      2,683.1
    48,000,000  The Gillette Company            600.0      4,821.0
    23,733,198  Travelers Group Inc.            604.4      1,278.6
     1,727,765  The Washington Post Company      10.6        840.6
     6,690,218  Wells Fargo & Company           412.6      2,270.9
                Others                        2,177.1      4,467.2
                                             --------   ----------
                Total Common Stocks          $7,206.9   $ 36,247.7
                                             ========   ==========

*

*

代表税基成本,整体比美国通用会计准则(GAAP)成本少 18 亿美元。

Represents tax-basis cost which, in aggregate, is $1.8 billion less than GAAP cost.

年内我们的净销售额约为期初投资组合的 5%。其中,我们大幅减持了几只低于 750 万美元逐项披露门槛的持仓,也适度削减了几只我们详细列出的较大仓位。1997 年进行的一些卖出旨在根据两个市场各自所见相对价值,适度调整我们的债券与股票比例,这一调整在 1998 年仍在继续。

We made net sales during the year that amounted to about 5% of our beginning portfolio. In these, we significantly reduced a few of our holdings that are below the $750 million threshold for itemization, and we also modestly trimmed a few of the larger positions that we detail. Some of the sales we made during 1997 were aimed at changing our bond-stock ratio moderately in response to the relative values that we saw in each market, a realignment we have continued in 1998.

需要说明的是,我们公布的持仓有时反映了 GEICO 的卢·辛普森的投资决策。卢独立管理着一只近 20 亿美元的股票组合,这只组合有时会与我管理的组合重叠,偶尔他的操作也会与我的不同。

Our reported positions, we should add, sometimes reflect the investment decisions of GEICO's Lou Simpson. Lou independently runs an equity portfolio of nearly $2 billion that may at times overlap the portfolio that I manage, and occasionally he makes moves that differ from mine.

虽然我们不试图预测股市的走势,但确实会尝试粗略地评估其价值。去年股东大会上,道指报 7071 点,长期国债收益率 6.89%,我和查理当时表示,只要 1)利率维持现状或走低,2)美国企业继续保持近年来的高净资产收益率,我们就认为市场并未高估。如今,利率已下降——满足了一个条件——净资产收益率依然处于极高水平。倘若这两点能持续——且利率保持近期水平——就没有理由认为股票整体被高估。反过来说,净资产收益率能否维持在当前水平,甚至接近当前水平,可并非板上钉钉。

Though we don't attempt to predict the movements of the stock market, we do try, in a very rough way, to value it. At the annual meeting last year, with the Dow at 7,071 and long-term Treasury yields at 6.89%, Charlie and I stated that we did not consider the market overvalued if 1) interest rates remained where they were or fell, and 2) American business continued to earn the remarkable returns on equity that it had recently recorded. So far, interest rates have fallen -- that's one requisite satisfied -- and returns on equity still remain exceptionally high. If they stay there -- and if interest rates hold near recent levels -- there is no reason to think of stocks as generally overvalued. On the other hand, returns on equity are not a sure thing to remain at, or even near, their present levels.

1979 年夏天,当时股票在我看来相当便宜,我在《财富》杂志上写了一篇文章,题为“股市中,为了一致看好的共识,你得付出高昂代价”。那时候怀疑和失望情绪弥漫市场,我的观点是,投资者应当庆幸这一事实,因为悲观情绪会把股价压到确实诱人的水平。然而现在,我们面对的是高度一致的乐观共识。这未必意味着现在不是买入股票的好时机:美国企业界的盈利比几年前高出许多,而且在利率走低的背景下,每一美元盈利都变得更值钱。不过,如今的价格水平已大大侵蚀了本·格雷厄姆所说的“安全边际”——他曾将之视为明智投资的核心基石。

In the summer of 1979, when equities looked cheap to me, I wrote a Forbes article entitled "You pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus." At that time skepticism and disappointment prevailed, and my point was that investors should be glad of the fact, since pessimism drives down prices to truly attractive levels. Now, however, we have a very cheery consensus. That does not necessarily mean this is the wrong time to buy stocks: Corporate America is now earning far more money than it was just a few years ago, and in the presence of lower interest rates, every dollar of earnings becomes more valuable. Today's price levels, though, have materially eroded the "margin of safety" that Ben Graham identified as the cornerstone of intelligent investing.

  • * * * * * * * * * * *
  • * * * * * * * * * * *

在去年的年报中,我讨论了可口可乐,这是我们最大的持股。可口可乐在全球的市场主导地位持续增强,但遗憾的是,它失去了一位引领其卓越表现的领导者。自 1981 年起担任可口可乐首席执行官(CEO)的罗伯托·戈伊苏埃塔于 10 月去世。他去世后,我阅读了他在过去九年里写给我的每一封信和便条,共计 100 多封。那些文字完全可以作为商业和人生成功的指南。

In last year's annual report, I discussed Coca-Cola, our largest holding. Coke continues to increase its market dominance throughout the world, but, tragically, it has lost the leader responsible for its outstanding performance. Roberto Goizueta, Coke's CEO since 1981, died in October. After his death, I read every one of the more than 100 letters and notes he had written me during the past nine years. Those messages could well serve as a guidebook for success in both business and life.

在这些往来书信中,罗伯托展现出卓越而清晰的战略眼光,始终致力于提升可口可乐股东的利益。他深知公司要走向何方,如何抵达目的地,以及为何这条路径对股东而言最为合理——同样重要的是,他对实现目标抱有炽热的紧迫感。他寄给我的一张手写便条中有一句话,道出了他的心境:“顺便提一句,我告诉奥尔吉塔,她所谓的执念,在你口中叫做专注。我更喜欢你的说法。”所有认识罗伯托的人,包括我在内,都将深深怀念他。

In these communications, Roberto displayed a brilliant and clear strategic vision that was always aimed at advancing the well-being of Coke shareholders. Roberto knew where he was leading the company, how he was going to get there, and why this path made the most sense for his owners -- and, equally important, he had a burning sense of urgency about reaching his goals. An excerpt from one handwritten note he sent to me illustrates his mind-set: "By the way, I have told Olguita that what she refers to as an obsession, you call focus. I like your term much better." Like all who knew Roberto, I will miss him enormously.

出于对公司长远发展的关切,罗伯托早在看似无需着急之时,就已着手筹划无缝交接。他深知道格·艾维斯特是接棒的合适人选,多年来与道格紧密协作,确保更替之时不会丧失任何发展势头。可口可乐公司在道格掌舵下,将如罗伯托任内一般,依旧势不可挡。

Consistent with his concern for the company, Roberto prepared for a seamless succession long before it seemed necessary. Roberto knew that Doug Ivester was the right man to take over and worked with Doug over the years to ensure that no momentum would be lost when the time for change arrived. The Coca-Cola Company will be the same steamroller under Doug as it was under Roberto.

Convertible Preferreds

Convertible Preferreds

两年前,我向各位汇报了我们在 1987 年至 1991 年间通过私募购入的五只可转换优先股的最新情况。在上一份报告时,我们已经出售了所持有的 Champion International 股份,并实现了小额利润。剩余的四个优先股承诺中,包括两个已经转换为普通股、且我们拥有大量未实现收益的持股——吉列和第一帝国州——以及另外两个问题频出的持股——USAir 和所罗门。这两个后者时不时让我想起一句乡村歌曲的歌词:“你若不离去,我又怎会想念你?”

Two years ago, I gave you an update on the five convertible preferreds that we purchased through private placements in the 1987-1991 period. At the time of that earlier report, we had realized a small profit on the sale of our Champion International holding. The four remaining preferred commitments included two, Gillette and First Empire State, that we had converted into common stock in which we had large unrealized gains, and two others, USAir and Salomon, that had been trouble-prone. At times, the last two had me mouthing a line from a country song: "How can I miss you if you won't go away?"

自我发出那份报告以来,这四笔投资的价值均已大幅增长。吉列和第一帝国银行的普通股,均随着公司出色的业绩表现而显著上涨。截至年底,我们 1989 年投入吉列的 6 亿美元已增值至 48 亿美元,而 1991 年投入第一帝国银行的 4000 万美元也已升至 2.36 亿美元。

Since I delivered that report, all four holdings have grown significantly in value. The common stocks of both Gillette and First Empire have risen substantially, in line with the companies' excellent performance. At yearend, the $600 million we put into Gillette in 1989 had appreciated to $4.8 billion, and the $40 million we committed to First Empire in 1991 had risen to $236 million.

与此同时,我们的两个落后生也焕发了巨大生机。在一项最终回报了长期受苦股东的并购交易中,所罗门最近并入旅行者集团。伯克希尔的全体股东——包括我个人在内——都对德里克·莫恩和鲍勃·德纳姆深怀感激,他们先是挽救了所罗门于 1991 年丑闻后的生死存亡,继而恢复了公司的活力,使之成为旅行者集团青睐的收购对象。我常说,希望能与我欣赏、信任和敬佩的管理者共事。没有谁比德里克和鲍勃更符合这个描述。

Our two laggards, meanwhile, have come to life in a very major way. In a transaction that finally rewarded its long-suffering shareholders, Salomon recently merged into Travelers Group. All of Berkshire's shareholders -- including me, very personally -- owe a huge debt to Deryck Maughan and Bob Denham for, first, playing key roles in saving Salomon from extinction following its 1991 scandal and, second, restoring the vitality of the company to a level that made it an attractive acquisition for Travelers. I have often said that I wish to work with executives that I like, trust and admire. No two fit that description better than Deryck and Bob.

伯克希尔从所罗门投资中获得的最终结果,一时还难以精确统计,但可以肯定地说,会比两年前我预想的好得多。回顾往昔,我觉得所罗门的经历既引人入胜,又富有教益,尽管在 1991-92 年间,我曾像那位戏剧评论家一样写道:“本来我会欣赏这出戏,可惜座位不佳,正对着舞台。”

Berkshire's final results from its Salomon investment won't be tallied for some time, but it is safe to say that they will be far better than I anticipated two years ago. Looking back, I think of my Salomon experience as having been both fascinating and instructional, though for a time in 1991-92 I felt like the drama critic who wrote: "I would have enjoyed the play except that I had an unfortunate seat. It faced the stage."

美国航空公司的起死回生近乎奇迹。关注我在这一投资上每一步的人都知道,我创造了一段与成功无缘的纪录。当初买入这支股票是错的,后来一再试图以五折价格脱手持仓,同样是错。

The resuscitation of US Airways borders on the miraculous. Those who have watched my moves in this investment know that I have compiled a record that is unblemished by success. I was wrong in originally purchasing the stock, and I was wrong later, in repeatedly trying to unload our holdings at 50 cents on the dollar.

公司出现两大变化,正好赶上业绩显著回升:其一,查理和我退出了董事会;其二,斯蒂芬·沃尔夫出任首席执行官。所幸,对我们面子而言,关键在第二件事:斯蒂芬·沃尔夫在这家航空公司取得的成就堪称惊人。

Two changes at the company coincided with its remarkable rebound: 1) Charlie and I left the board of directors and 2) Stephen Wolf became CEO. Fortunately for our egos, the second event was the key: Stephen Wolf's accomplishments at the airline have been phenomenal.

美国航空仍有大量工作要做,但生存已不再是问题。因此,该公司在 1997 年补发了我们优先股的股息欠款,并额外支付了款项以补偿我们经历的延误。此外,该公司普通股股价已从 4 美元的低点上涨至最近的 73 美元高点。

There still is much to do at US Airways, but survival is no longer an issue. Consequently, the company made up the dividend arrearages on our preferred during 1997, adding extra payments to compensate us for the delay we suffered. The company's common stock, furthermore, has risen from a low of $4 to a recent high of $73.

我们的优先股已于 3 月 15 日被要求赎回。但公司股价上涨,使原本不久前我们还认为一文不值的转换权,如今变得价值非凡。现在几乎可以肯定,我们在全美航空的股份将带来可观的利润——当然,前提是不算我为胃药的开销——而这笔收益甚至可能大到堪称“不雅”。

Our preferred has been called for redemption on March 15. But the rise in the company's stock has given our conversion rights, which we thought worthless not long ago, great value. It is now almost certain that our US Airways shares will produce a decent profit -- that is, if my cost for Maalox is excluded -- and the gain could even prove indecent.

下次我再做出重大而愚蠢的决定,伯克希尔的股东们就知道该怎么办了:给“狼先生”打电话。

Next time I make a big, dumb decision, Berkshire shareholders will know what to do: Phone Mr. Wolf .

  • * * * * * * * * * * *
  • * * * * * * * * * * *

1991 年,除了可转换优先股,我们还买了一笔私募品种,金额 3 亿美元,是美国运通的 PERCS。这个品种本质上是普通股,只是头三年有个取舍:那段时间我们多拿股息,但股价上涨的空间也封了顶。尽管有封顶,这笔持仓却赚得惊人,多亏了董事长我的一步操作,运气和本事各占一半——运气占 110%,剩下的才是本事。

In addition to the convertible preferreds, we purchased one other private placement in 1991, $300 million of American Express Percs. This security was essentially a common stock that featured a tradeoff in its first three years: We received extra dividend payments during that period, but we were also capped in the price appreciation we could realize. Despite the cap, this holding has proved extraordinarily profitable thanks to a move by your Chairman that combined luck and skill -- 110% luck, the balance skill.

我们的优先权益转换证券(Percs)定于 1994 年 8 月转换为普通股,而在转换前一个月,我正思忖着是否在转换后出售。持有的一理由是,美国运通有位杰出的首席执行官,哈维·戈鲁布,他似乎能最大化公司的一切潜力(这一假设此后被充分证实)。但那股潜力的规模存疑:美国运通面临以维萨为首的众多发卡机构的激烈竞争。权衡再三,我倾向出售。

Our Percs were due to convert into common stock in August 1994, and in the month before I was mulling whether to sell upon conversion. One reason to hold was Amex's outstanding CEO, Harvey Golub, who seemed likely to maximize whatever potential the company had (a supposition that has since been proved -- in spades). But the size of that potential was in question: Amex faced relentless competition from a multitude of card-issuers, led by Visa. Weighing the arguments, I leaned toward sale.

我的运气就在这里。在那个做出决定的月份里,我在缅因州的普劳茨内克与赫兹公司的首席执行官弗兰克·奥尔森打了一场高尔夫球。弗兰克是一位杰出的管理者,对信用卡行业了如指掌。因此,从第一洞发球台开始,我就向他请教这个行业的情况。当我们打到第二洞果岭时,弗兰克已经让我确信美国运通的公司卡是一项极佳的经济特许权,而我也决定不再卖出。在后九洞时,我转而成了买家,几个月后,伯克希尔便持有该公司 10% 的股份。

Here's where I got lucky. During that month of decision, I played golf at Prouts Neck, Maine with Frank Olson, CEO of Hertz. Frank is a brilliant manager, with intimate knowledge of the card business. So from the first tee on I was quizzing him about the industry. By the time we reached the second green, Frank had convinced me that Amex's corporate card was a terrific franchise, and I had decided not to sell. On the back nine I turned buyer, and in a few months Berkshire owned 10% of the company.

我们现在在运通股票上赚了 3 亿美元,我自然对弗兰克感激不尽。但我们的共同朋友乔治·吉莱斯皮说,我搞错了感激的对象。他提醒我,是他当年安排的那场球赛,把我分到了弗兰克那一组。

We now have a $3 billion gain in our Amex shares, and I naturally feel very grateful to Frank. But George Gillespie, our mutual friend, says that I am confused about where my gratitude should go. After all, he points out, it was he who arranged the game and assigned me to Frank's foursome.

致股东的季度报告

Quarterly Reports to Shareholders

在去年的信中,我描述了我们在邮寄季度报告方面日益增长的成本,以及在向“街道名义”股东送达这些报告时遇到的问题。鉴于我们现在将季度和年度通讯发布在互联网上,即我们的网站 www.berkshirehathaway.com,我询问了大家对于继续印刷报告是否可取的意见。回应的股东相对较少,但很明显,至少有一小部分需要季度信息的股东对从互联网获取信息毫无兴趣。作为终身患有技术恐惧症的人,我对此深有同感。

In last year's letter, I described the growing costs we incur in mailing quarterly reports and the problems we have encountered in delivering them to "street-name" shareholders. I asked for your opinion about the desirability of our continuing to print reports, given that we now publish our quarterly and annual communications on the Internet, at our site, www.berkshirehathaway.com. Relatively few shareholders responded, but it is clear that at least a small number who want the quarterly information have no interest in getting it off the Internet. Being a life-long sufferer from technophobia, I can empathize with this group.

然而,出版季报的成本持续膨胀,因此我们决定,仅向那些主动索取印刷版的股东寄送。若您需要季报,请填写本报告内附的回执卡。同时请放心,所有股东将继续收到年度报告。

The cost of publishing quarterlies, however, continues to balloon, and we have therefore decided to send printed versions only to shareholders who request them. If you wish the quarterlies, please complete the reply card that is bound into this report. In the meantime, be assured that all shareholders will continue to receive the annual

以印刷形式发布报告。

report in printed form.

喜欢用电脑的朋友,不妨去看看我们的主页。那里不仅有伯克希尔的最新资讯,还收录了 1977 年以来我们所有的年报。此外,网站上还链接了许多伯克希尔子公司的首页,您可以从这些页面了解到它们的产品详情,甚至可以直接下单订购。

Those of you who enjoy the computer should check out our home page. It contains a large amount of current information about Berkshire and also all of our annual letters since 1977. In addition, our website includes links to the home pages of many Berkshire subsidiaries. On these sites you can learn more about our subsidiaries' products and -- yes -- even place orders for them.

我们须在每个季度结束后的 45 天内,向美国证券交易委员会提交季度报告。我们在互联网上发布信息的目标之一,是在市场休市时,将所有重要信息——完整详尽、未经媒体过滤——同步提供给所有感兴趣的各方。因此,我们计划在 5 月 15 日、8 月 14 日和 11 月 13 日这三个星期五,向 SEC 提交 1998 年季度信息,并在当晚将相同内容发布到互联网上。这一做法将使所有股东,无论是直接持股还是“街名”持股,都处于平等地位。同样,我们将在 1999 年 3 月 13 日(星期六)将 1998 年年报发布到互联网上,并几乎同时寄出纸质版。

We are required to file our quarterly information with the SEC no later than 45 days after the end of each quarter. One of our goals in posting communications on the Internet is to make this material information -- in full detail and in a form unfiltered by the media -- simultaneously available to all interested parties at a time when markets are closed. Accordingly, we plan to send our 1998 quarterly information to the SEC on three Fridays, May 15, August 14, and November 13, and on those nights to post the same information on the Internet. This procedure will put all of our shareholders, whether they be direct or "street-name," on an equal footing. Similarly, we will post our 1998 annual report on the Internet on Saturday, March 13, 1999, and mail it at about the same time.

股东指定捐款

Shareholder-Designated Contributions

1997 年伯克希尔的股东指定捐赠计划中,约 97.7% 的合格股份参与了该计划。捐赠总额为 1540 万美元,共有 3830 家慈善机构受益。该计划的完整说明见第 52 - 53 页。

About 97.7% of all eligible shares participated in Berkshire's 1997 shareholder-designated contributions program. Contributions made were $15.4 million, and 3,830 charities were recipients. A full description of the program appears on pages 52 - 53.

在过去的 17 年里,伯克希尔根据股东的指示累计捐款 1.131 亿美元。伯克希尔其余的捐赠由我们的子公司完成,它们遵循被收购前的慈善模式(只是原所有者自己承担个人慈善责任)。1997 年,我们的子公司捐款总额为 810 万美元,其中包含价值 440 万美元的实物捐赠。

Cumulatively, over the 17 years of the program, Berkshire has made contributions of $113.1 million pursuant to the instructions of our shareholders. The rest of Berkshire's giving is done by our subsidiaries, which stick to the philanthropic patterns that prevailed before they were acquired (except that their former owners themselves take on the responsibility for their personal charities). In aggregate, our subsidiaries made contributions of $8.1 million in 1997, including in-kind donations of $4.4 million.

每年总有少数股东错过我们的捐赠计划,原因要么是他们在规定的登记日当天没有以自己的名义登记持股,要么就是没能在允许的 60 天期限内把指定表格寄回给我们。查理和我对此感到遗憾。可要是回复迟了,我们只能拒绝,因为不能对部分股东破例,却拒绝给其他股东同样的待遇。

Every year a few shareholders miss out on our contributions program because they don't have their shares registered in their own names on the prescribed record date or because they fail to get the designation form back to us within the 60-day period allowed. Charlie and I regret this. But if replies are received late, we have to reject them because we can't make exceptions for some shareholders while refusing to make them for others.

要参加未来的计划,你必须持有登记在实际所有者名下、而非经纪人、银行或存托机构名义账户下的 A 类股票。1998 年 8 月 31 日未如此登记的股票,将无法参与 1998 年的计划。收到我们寄来的捐款表格后,请及时返还,以免搁置一旁或被遗忘。

To participate in future programs, you must own Class A shares that are registered in the name of the actual owner, not the nominee name of a broker, bank or depository. Shares not so registered on August 31, 1998, will be ineligible for the 1998 program. When you get the contributions form from us, return it promptly so that it does not get put aside or forgotten.

WARREN BUFFETT: 年度股东大会

The Annual Meeting

今年的伯克希尔“伍德斯托克周末”定于 5 月 2 日至 4 日举行,压轴大戏是 5 月 4 日星期一上午 9 点 30 分开始的股东大会。去年我们在阿克萨本体育馆相聚,我们员工和与会者都对场地赞不绝口。唯一的小插曲是:会议前夜我失声了,正中查理最疯狂的幻想;第二天早上我声音恢复如初,他大失所望。

Woodstock Weekend at Berkshire will be May 2-4 this year. The finale will be the annual meeting, which will begin at 9:30 a.m. on Monday, May 4. Last year we met at Aksarben Coliseum, and both our staff and the crowd were delighted with the venue. There was only one crisis: The night before the meeting, I lost my voice, thereby fulfilling Charlie's wildest fantasy. He was crushed when I showed up the next morning with my speech restored.

去年约有 7500 人参加了股东大会,他们来自全美 50 个州以及 16 个国家,包括澳大利亚、巴西、以色列、沙特阿拉伯、新加坡和希腊。考虑到几个分会场,我们相信可以容纳超过 11000 人,这应该足以应对今年的情况,尽管我们的股东人数已有显著增长。Aksarben 的停车位充足,音响效果出色,座椅也很舒适。

Last year about 7,500 attended the meeting. They represented all 50 states, as well as 16 countries, including Australia, Brazil, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Singapore and Greece. Taking into account several overflow rooms, we believe that we can handle more than 11,000 people, and that should put us in good shape this year even though our shareholder count has risen significantly. Parking is ample at Aksarben; acoustics are excellent; and seats are comfortable.

周一早上 7 点开门,8 点半我们将再次放映由我们的首席财务官马克·汉堡制作的一部史诗级影片,这是全球首映。会议将持续到下午 3 点半,中午短暂休息。这段时间让疲惫的人可以悄悄离场,也给铁杆股东留出时间去阿卡本恩的餐饮区吃午饭。查理和我喜欢股东提问,所以有什么想法尽管提出来。

The doors will open at 7 a.m. on Monday and at 8:30 we will again feature the world premiere of a movie epic produced by Marc Hamburg, our CFO. The meeting will last until 3:30, with a short break at noon. This interval will permit the exhausted to leave unnoticed and allow time for the hardcore to lunch at Aksarben's concession stands. Charlie and I enjoy questions from owners, so bring up whatever is on your mind.

伯克希尔的产品将再次

Berkshire products will again be

在会议室外的走廊里就有出售。去年——倒不是说我会留意这种事——我们又刷新了销售纪录,卖出了 2500 磅喜诗糖果、1350 双德克斯特鞋、7.5 万美元的世界图书及配套出版物,还有 888 套奎克特刀具。我们还接了一批新款服饰的订单,上面印着伯克希尔的标志,卖了大约 1000 件 polo 衫、运动衫和 T 恤。今年的股东大会上,我们会推出 1998 年新款系列。

for sale in the halls outside the meeting room. Last year -- not that I pay attention to this sort of thing -- we again set sales records, moving 2,500 pounds of See's candy, 1,350 pairs of Dexter shoes, $75,000 of World Books and related publications, and 888 sets of Quikut knives. We also took orders for a new line of apparel, featuring our Berkshire logo, and sold about 1,000 polo, sweat, and T-shirts. At this year's meeting, we will unveil our 1998 collection.

GEICO 今年还会到场,设一个展位,由各区域办事处的明星员工值守。来看看把你的车险转到 GEICO 能不能省钱。前来咨询的人里,约 40% 发现确实能省。比例不是 100%,因为各家保险公司的承保判断不一样,有些公司比我们更偏爱住在某些地区、从事某些职业的司机。不过,我们相信,相比任何一家面向所有客户卖保险的全国性保险公司,我们提供低价的情况更常见。随本报告附上的 GEICO 资料里,你会看到我们在 38 个州给股东提供最高 8% 的特别折扣。我们还递交了申请,想把这项折扣推广到其他州的司机。

GEICO will again be on hand with a booth staffed by star associates from its regional offices. Find out whether you can save money by shifting your auto insurance to GEICO. About 40% of those who check us out learn that savings are possible. The proportion is not 100% because insurers differ in their underwriting judgments, with some favoring drivers who live in certain geographical areas and work at certain occupations more than we do. We believe, however, that we more frequently offer the low price than does any other national carrier selling insurance to all comers. In the GEICO informational material that accompanies this report, you will see that in 38 states we now offer a special discount of as much as 8% to our shareholders. We also have applications pending that would extend this discount to drivers in other states.

随本报告附上的代理投票材料中,有一份附件,说明如何获取参会所需的入场卡。预计届时与会者众多,请尽早预订机票、酒店和租车。美国运通(电话 800-799-6634)很乐意协助您安排相关事宜。与往常一样,我们会在各大酒店安排巴士,接送您往返会场,并在会议结束后送您前往内布拉斯加家具城、博尔斯海姆珠宝店和机场。不过,自驾可能更为便捷。

An attachment to the proxy material that is enclosed with this report explains how you can obtain the card you will need for admission to the meeting. We expect a large crowd, so get plane, hotel and car reservations promptly. American Express (800-799-6634) will be happy to help you with arrangements. As usual, we will have buses at the larger hotels that will take you to and from the meeting and also deliver you to Nebraska Furniture Mart, Borsheim's and the airport after its conclusion. You are likely, however, to find a car handy.

内布拉斯加家具城的主店占地 75 英亩,距离阿克萨本约 1 英里,平日营业时间为上午 10 点到晚上 9 点,周六为上午 10 点到下午 6 点,周日为中午 12 点到下午 6 点。在 5 月 1 日至 5 月 5 日期间,股东持股东大会入场券附带的优惠券到店,可享受原本仅限员工享有的折扣。

NFM's main store, located on a 75-acre site about a mile from Aksarben, is open from 10 a.m. to 9 p.m. on weekdays, 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Saturdays, and noon to 6 p.m. on Sundays. During the period from May 1 to May 5, shareholders who present NFM with the coupon that will accompany their meeting ticket will be entitled to a discount that is otherwise restricted to its employees.

博尔斯海姆珠宝平时周日不营业,但 5 月 3 日会为股东特别开放,从上午 10 点到下午 6 点。去年是我们股东日销售第二好的年份,仅次于 1996 年。我把这一下滑视为反常现象,希望今年你们能证明我的判断是对的。查理会到场签名,不过,只有在他签的是博尔斯海姆的销售小票时,他才会露出笑容。计划周六(上午 10 点到下午 5 点 30 分)或周一(上午 10 点到晚上 8 点)到访的股东,务必表明自己伯克希尔股东的身份,这样博尔斯海姆的首席执行官苏珊·雅克会特别欢迎你们。我还要补充一句,苏珊在 1997 年业绩斐然。作为管理者,她是每位股东理想中的典范。

Borsheim's normally is closed on Sunday but will be open for shareholders from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. on May 3rd. Last year was our second-best shareholder's day, exceeded only by 1996's. I regard this slippage as an anomaly and hope that you will prove me right this year. Charlie will be available for autographs. He smiles, however, only if the paper he signs is a Borsheim's sales ticket. Shareholders who wish to visit on Saturday (10 a.m. to 5:30 p.m.) or on Monday (10 a.m.-8 p.m.) should be sure to identify themselves as Berkshire owners so that Susan Jacques, Borsheim's CEO, can make you especially welcome. Susan, I should add, had a fabulous year in 1997. As a manager, she is everything that an owner hopes for.

周日下午,我们还为桥牌爱好者准备了一场特别活动,地点就在博尔斯海姆珠宝店外的商场里。届时,鲍勃·哈曼——这位三十多年来牌坛的传奇人物——将迎战所有前来挑战的牌友。不妨加入其中,用你的牌技让鲍勃眼前一亮。

On Sunday afternoon we will also have a special treat for bridge players in the mall outside of Borsheim's. There, Bob Hamman -- a legend of the game for more than three decades -- will take on all comers. Join in and dazzle Bob with your skill.

我最喜欢的牛排馆戈拉特餐厅每年只在一个周日营业——就是伯克希尔股东大会前夜,专门招待股东。去年这家餐厅下午 4 点开始接待,一直忙到凌晨 1 点半左右,这场耐力考验源于 1100 份预订,而餐厅座位只有 235 个。如果你订了位又去不了,务必及时通知戈拉特餐厅,因为他们为帮我们费了很大功夫,我们也要投桃报李。你可以从 4 月 1 日(当天之前不行)开始打电话 402-551-3733 预订。去年因为嗓子问题,我不得不提前离开戈拉特,但今年我打算悠哉悠哉地细细品味每一口三分熟的肋眼牛排,外加双份薯饼。

My favorite steakhouse, Gorat's, opens one Sunday a year -- for Berkshire shareholders on the night before the annual meeting. Last year the restaurant started serving at 4 p.m. and finished about 1:30 a.m, an endurance trial that was the result of taking 1,100 reservations vs. a seating capacity of 235. If you make a reservation and then can't attend, be sure to let Gorat's know promptly, since it goes to great effort to help us and we want to reciprocate. You can make reservations beginning on April 1st ( but not before ) by calling 402-551-3733. Last year I had to leave Gorat's a little early because of my voice problem, but this year I plan to leisurely savor every bite of my rare T-bone and double order of hash browns.

这个热身环节结束后,我和查理会前往道奇街南面的第 114 街冰雪皇后(Dairy Queen)。奥马哈市区有 12 家很不错的冰雪皇后,但第 114 街这家最适合接待我们预期的大批人群。店铺南边,街道两侧有数百个停车位。此外,这家冰雪皇后会把周日的营业时间延长到晚上 11 点,以便招待我们的股东。

After this warmup, Charlie and I will head for the Dairy Queen on 114th, just south of Dodge. There are 12 great Dairy Queens in metropolitan Omaha, but the 114th Street location is the best suited to handle the large crowd that we expect. South of the property, there are hundreds of parking spaces on both sides of the street. Also, this Dairy Queen will extend its Sunday hours to 11 p.m. in order to accommodate our shareholders.

114 街这家店现在由两姐妹打理,科妮·伯奇和黛布·诺沃特尼,她们的爷爷于 1962 年盖起这栋楼,当时那里还算是城市的边缘地带。她们的母亲简·诺布尔在 1972 年接手经营,科妮和黛布是第三代老板兼经营者。简、科妮和黛布周日晚都会在场,希望你们能见到她们。要是挤不进戈拉特餐厅,不妨尝尝她们家的汉堡。到了八点左右,跟我一起点一份“灰尘圣代”当甜点。这道甜点是个人特色——冰雪皇后会给你一份我的配方——只在股东周日供应。

The 114th Street operation is now run by two sisters, Coni Birge and Deb Novotny, whose grandfather put up the building in 1962 at what was then the outer edge of the city. Their mother, Jan Noble, took over in 1972, and Coni and Deb continue as third generation owner-managers. Jan, Coni and Deb will all be on hand Sunday evening, and I hope that you meet them. Enjoy one of their hamburgers if you can't get into Gorat's. And then, around eight o'clock, join me in having a Dusty Sundae for dessert. This item is a personal specialty -- the Dairy Queen will furnish you a copy of my recipe -- and will be offered only on Shareholder Sunday.

奥马哈皇家队与阿尔伯克基公爵队将于 5 月 2 日(周六)晚在罗森布拉特球场进行棒球比赛。照例,你们的主席将无耻地利用其对球队 25% 的所有权,登上投手丘。但今年,你们将看到一些新花样。

The Omaha Royals and Albuquerque Dukes will play baseball on Saturday evening, May 2nd, at Rosenblatt Stadium. As usual, your Chairman, shamelessly exploiting his 25% ownership of the team, will take the mound. But this year you will see something new.

在往日的比赛中,让观众大惑不解的是,我总是拒绝捕手的第一次示意。他总要求我投弧线球,而我却总是固执己见,偏要投一个拙劣的快球,状态最佳时球速也不过每小时八英里(还得顺风)。

In past games, much to the bafflement of the crowd, I have shaken off the catcher's first call. He has consistently asked for my sweeping curve, and I have just as regularly resisted. Instead, I have served up a pathetic fast ball, which on my best day was clocked at eight miles per hour (with a following wind).

我不愿投曲线球,背后有个故事。各位或许知道,坎迪·卡明斯于 1867 年发明了曲线球,并在国家协会联赛里用它大放异彩,每个赛季至少赢下 28 场比赛。然而,这种投法立刻招来了权威人士的批评,即当时的哈佛大学校长查尔斯·艾略特,他宣称:“我听说今年我们哈佛赢得棒球冠军,是因为我们有个投手擅长投漂亮的曲线球。我还被告知,曲线球的目的是故意欺骗击球手。哈佛可不是教人欺骗的地方。”(这不是我编的。)

There's a story behind my unwillingness to throw the curve ball. As some of you may know, Candy Cummings invented the curve in 1867 and used it to great effect in the National Association, where he never won less than 28 games in a season. The pitch, however, drew immediate criticism from the very highest of authorities, namely Charles Elliott, then president of Harvard University, who declared, "I have heard that this year we at Harvard won the baseball championship because we have a pitcher who has a fine curve ball. I am further instructed that the purpose of the curve ball is to deliberately deceive the batter. Harvard is not in the business of teaching deception." (I'm not making this up.)

自从我了解到埃利奥特校长在这件事上的道德教诲后,我一直严格约束自己,不用我的曲线球——尽管它要是投向那些倒霉的击球手,杀伤力可能惊人。然而,现在是我让因果报应超越埃利奥特信条、不再克制的时候了。周六晚上来球场吧,看我那记弧线优美的变化球如何划破长空。

Ever since I learned of President Elliott's moral teachings on this subject, I have scrupulously refrained from using my curve, however devastating its effect might have been on hapless batters. Now, however, it is time for my karma to run over Elliott's dogma and for me to quit holding back. Visit the park on Saturday night and marvel at the majestic arc of my breaking ball.

我们的股东委托书里有关于如何获取球票的信息。我们还会提供一份资料包,介绍当地的热门去处,当然包括那 12 家冰雪皇后(Dairy Queen)。

Our proxy statement includes information about obtaining tickets to the game. We will also provide an information packet describing the local hot spots, including, of course, those 12 Dairy Queens.

五月到奥马哈来吧——这里是资本主义的摇篮——好好玩一玩。

Come to Omaha -- the cradle of capitalism -- in May and enjoy yourself.

沃伦·E·巴菲特 1998 年 2 月 27 日 董事会主席

Warren E. Buffett February 27, 1998 Chairman of the Board