2000 年致股东信
董事长致股东的信
Chairman's Letter
注:下表印在年报纸质版董事长信函的对页,信中会引用该表。
Note: The following table appears in the printed Annual Report on the facing page of the Chairman's Letter and is referred to in that letter.
伯克希尔公司业绩 vs. 标普 500 指数
Berkshire's Corporate Performance vs. the S&P 500
年度百分比变化
Annual Percentage Change
年份
Year
伯克希尔每股账面价值
in Per-Share Book Value of Berkshire
(1)
(1)
含股息再投资的标普 500 指数
in S&P 500 with Dividends Included
(2)
(2)
相对业绩
Relative Results
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
(1)-(2) 1965 23.8 10.0 13.8 1966 20.3 (11.7) 32.0 1967 11.0 30.9 (19.9) 1968 19.0 11.0 8.0 1969 16.2 (8.4) 24.6 1970 12.0 3.9 8.1 1971 16.4 14.6 1.8 1972 21.7 18.9 2.8 1973 4.7 (14.8) 19.5 1974 5.5 (26.4) 31.9 1975 21.9 37.2 (15.3) 1976 59.3 23.6 35.7 1977 31.9 (7.4) 39.3 1978 24.0 6.4 17.6 1979 35.7 18.2 17.5 1980 19.3 32.3 (13.0) 1981 31.4 (5.0) 36.4 1982 40.0 21.4 18.6 1983 32.3 22.4 9.9 1984 13.6 6.1 7.5 1985 48.2 31.6 16.6 1986 26.1 18.6 7.5 1987 19.5 5.1 14.4 1988 20.1 16.6 3.5 1989 44.4 31.7 12.7 1990 7.4 (3.1) 10.5 1991 39.6 30.5 9.1 1992 20.3 7.6 12.7 1993 14.3 10.1 4.2 1994 13.9 1.3 12.6 1995 43.1 37.6 5.5 1996 31.8 23.0 8.8 1997 34.1 33.4 .7 1998 48.3 28.6 19.7 1999 .5 21.0 (20.5) 2000 6.5 (9.1) 15.6
(1)-(2) 1965 23.8 10.0 13.8 1966 20.3 (11.7) 32.0 1967 11.0 30.9 (19.9) 1968 19.0 11.0 8.0 1969 16.2 (8.4) 24.6 1970 12.0 3.9 8.1 1971 16.4 14.6 1.8 1972 21.7 18.9 2.8 1973 4.7 (14.8) 19.5 1974 5.5 (26.4) 31.9 1975 21.9 37.2 (15.3) 1976 59.3 23.6 35.7 1977 31.9 (7.4) 39.3 1978 24.0 6.4 17.6 1979 35.7 18.2 17.5 1980 19.3 32.3 (13.0) 1981 31.4 (5.0) 36.4 1982 40.0 21.4 18.6 1983 32.3 22.4 9.9 1984 13.6 6.1 7.5 1985 48.2 31.6 16.6 1986 26.1 18.6 7.5 1987 19.5 5.1 14.4 1988 20.1 16.6 3.5 1989 44.4 31.7 12.7 1990 7.4 (3.1) 10.5 1991 39.6 30.5 9.1 1992 20.3 7.6 12.7 1993 14.3 10.1 4.2 1994 13.9 1.3 12.6 1995 43.1 37.6 5.5 1996 31.8 23.0 8.8 1997 34.1 33.4 .7 1998 48.3 28.6 19.7 1999 .5 21.0 (20.5) 2000 6.5 (9.1) 15.6
1965—2000 年平均年增幅
Average Annual Gain ¾ 1965-2000
23.6% 11.8% 11.8%
23.6% 11.8% 11.8%
1964—2000 年累计增幅
Overall Gain ¾ 1964-2000
207,821% 5,383% 202,438%
207,821% 5,383% 202,438%
注:
Notes:
数据以日历年为准,但以下情况除外:1965 年和 1966 年,财年截至 9 月 30 日;1967 年,覆盖 15 个月,截至 12 月 31 日。
Data are for calendar years with these exceptions: 1965 and 1966, year ended 9/30; 1967, 15 months ended 12/31.
从 1979 年起,会计准则要求保险公司对所持股权证券按市值计价,而不再沿用此前要求的成本与市价孰低法。本表中,伯克希尔 1978 年以前的业绩已按变更后的规则重述。其余各方面均按最初报告的数字计算。
Starting in 1979, accounting rules required insurance companies to value the equity securities they hold at market rather than at the lower of cost or market, which was previously the requirement. In this table, Berkshire's results through 1978 have been restated to conform to the changed rules. In all other respects, the results are calculated using the numbers originally reported.
标普 500 数字为税前口径,伯克希尔数字为税后口径。如果像伯克希尔这样一家公司仅仅持有标普 500 指数,并计提相应的税款,那么在该指数录得正回报的年份里,其业绩会落后于标普 500;而在该指数录得负回报的年份里,则会跑赢标普 500。多年下来,税负成本会导致累计落后的幅度相当可观。
The S&P 500 numbers are pre-tax whereas the Berkshire numbers are after-tax . If a corporation such as Berkshire were simply to have owned the S&P 500 and accrued the appropriate taxes, its results would have lagged the S&P 500 in years when that index showed a positive return, but would have exceeded the S&P in years when the index showed a negative return. Over the years, the tax costs would have caused the aggregate lag to be substantial.
伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.
致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司全体股东:
To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:
2000 年,我们的净资产增加了 39.6 亿美元,使 A 类股和 B 类股的每股账面价值均上涨了 6.5%。自现任管理层接手以来的 36 年间,每股账面价值从 19 美元增长到 40,442 美元,年复合增长率为 23.6%。*
Our gain in net worth during 2000 was $3.96 billion, which increased the per-share book value of both our Class A and Class B stock by 6.5%. Over the last 36 years (that is, since present management took over) per-share book value has grown from $19 to $40,442, a gain of 23.6% compounded annually.*
- 本报告所用数字均以伯克希尔的 A 股为准——A 股是公司 1996 年以前唯一流通股的延续。B 股的经济权益相当于 A 股的 1/30。
- All figures used in this report apply to Berkshire's A shares, the successor to the only stock that the company had outstanding before 1996. The B shares have an economic interest equal to 1/30th that of the A.
总体而言,我们这一年过得不错,账面价值的增幅跑赢了标普 500。而且,尽管这一判断必然带有主观色彩,我们仍相信伯克希尔每股内在价值的增幅略高于账面价值的增幅。(内在价值以及其他关键的投资和会计术语与概念,见第 59—66 页的《股东手册》;内在价值在第 64 页有专门讨论。)
Overall, we had a decent year, our book-value gain having outpaced the performance of the S&P 500. And, though this judgment is necessarily subjective, we believe Berkshires gain in per-share intrinsic value moderately exceeded its gain in book value. (Intrinsic value, as well as other key investment and accounting terms and concepts, are explained in our Owners Manual on pages 59-66. Intrinsic value is discussed on page 64.)
此外,我们完成了 1999 年谈定的两笔重大收购,又启动了六笔新收购。这些收购合计耗资约 80 亿美元,其中 97% 用现金支付,3% 用股票支付。我们收购的这八家企业合计销售额约 130 亿美元,员工 5.8 万人。即便如此,我们未为此举借一分钱债,流通股也仅增加了三分之一百分点。更理想的是,我们仍手握充裕的流动资产,既渴望也准备好了迎接更大规模的收购。
Furthermore, we completed two significant acquisitions that we negotiated in 1999 and initiated six more. All told, these purchases have cost us about $8 billion, with 97% of that amount paid in cash and 3% in stock. The eight businesses weve acquired have aggregate sales of about $13 billion and employ 58,000 people. Still, we incurred no debt in making these purchases, and our shares outstanding have increased only 1 / 3 of 1%. Better yet, we remain awash in liquid assets and are both eager and ready for even larger acquisitions.
我会在报告的下一节详述这些收购。但先跟各位透个底:我们已经迈入了 21 世纪,进军砖头、地毯、隔热材料和油漆这些前沿行业。请努力克制你们的激动之情。
I will detail our purchases in the next section of the report. But I will tell you now that we have embraced the 21 st century by entering such cutting-edge industries as brick, carpet, insulation and paint. Try to control your excitement.
不好的一面是,进入 2000 年后,随着时间推移,GEICO 的保单增长逐渐停滞,获取新业务的成本大大提高了。去年我曾告诉各位,2000 年在 GEICO 加码广告投入将物有所值,但我错了。原因将留待报告后文探讨。
On the minus side, policyholder growth at GEICO slowed to a halt as the year progressed. It has become much more expensive to obtain new business. I told you last year that we would get our moneys worth from stepped-up advertising at GEICO in 2000, but I was wrong. Well examine the reasons later in the report.
另一桩持续数年的负面因素是,我们眼下的股票组合只能说差强人意。我们持有一些卓越企业的股票,但多数持仓的价格已充分反映其价值,未来不太可能带来可观的回报。面对这一问题的并非只有我们:整体来看,普通股的长期前景远谈不上令人振奋。
Another negative ¾ which has persisted for several years ¾ is that we see our equity portfolio as only mildly attractive. We own stocks of some excellent businesses, but most of our holdings are fully priced and are unlikely to deliver more than moderate returns in the future. Were not alone in facing this problem: The long-term prospect for equities in general is far from exciting.
最后,还有一桩年年必报的负面消息:伯克希尔副董事长兼我的搭档查理·芒格,和我本人,都比上次向诸位汇报时又老了一岁。稍稍缓解这一不利态势的是,一个无可争辩的事实是,你们最高管理层的年龄正以远低于其他几乎所有大公司的速率在增长——
Finally, there is the negative that recurs annually: Charlie Munger, Berkshires Vice Chairman and my partner, and I are a year older than when we last reported to you. Mitigating this adverse development is the indisputable fact that the age of your top managers is increasing at a considerably lower rate ¾
按百分比计算——
percentage-wise
——要比其他公司慢得多。更妙的是,这一差距日后还会拉大。
¾ than is the case at almost all other major corporations. Better yet, this differential will widen in the future.
查理和我仍致力于让伯克希尔每股价值的长期增速,适度超越持有标普 500 指数的回报。正如对页表格所示,哪怕我们每年只占有一点微小的优势,若能持续下去,就能在长期累积出绝不算小的优势。为达成这一目标,我们需要每年为伯克希尔增添几家好企业,让我们旗下现有企业的价值大体上持续增长,同时避免流通股出现任何实质性增加。我们对实现后两个目标颇有信心;第一个目标的实现则需要一些运气。
Charlie and I continue to aim at increasing Berkshires per-share value at a rate that, over time, will modestly exceed the gain from owning the S&P 500. As the table on the facing page shows, a small annual advantage in our favor can, if sustained, produce an anything-but-small long-term advantage. To reach our goal we will need to add a few good businesses to Berkshires stable each year, have the businesses we own generally gain in value, and avoid any material increase in our outstanding shares. We are confident about meeting the last two objectives; the first will require some luck.
借此机会,应当感谢两群人,是他们一如既往地让我去年的工作既轻松又有趣。首先是我们的运营经理人,他们继续以出色的方式经营各自的业务,让我得以把时间花在资本配置上,而不是去监管他们。(反正监管人我也不在行。)
Its appropriate here to thank two groups that made my job both easy and fun last year ¾ just as they do every year. First, our operating managers continue to run their businesses in splendid fashion, which allows me to spend my time allocating capital rather than supervising them. (I wouldnt be good at that anyway.)
我们的经理人是群非常特别的人。在多数大公司,真正有才华的分部经理罕有机会做上自己真心想做的工作。相反,他们渴望成为 CEO,无论是在现任东家还是别处。说实在的,如果他们待在原地不动,他们自己和同事都很可能觉得自己是失败者。
Our managers are a very special breed. At most large companies, the truly talented divisional managers seldom have the job they really want. Instead they yearn to become CEOs, either at their present employer or elsewhere. Indeed, if they stay put, they and their colleagues are likely to feel they have failed.
在伯克希尔,我们的全明星选手拥有恰恰是自己想要的工作,这些工作他们希望并预期能终其职业生涯一直做下去。因此,他们专心致志地把他们“拥有”并热爱的企业的长期价值最大化。企业成功了,他们也就成功了。而且他们对我们不离不弃:在过去 36 年间,伯克希尔从未有一位重要子公司的经理人主动离职去加盟另一家企业。
At Berkshire, our all-stars have exactly the jobs they want, ones that they hope and expect to keep throughout their business lifetimes. They therefore concentrate solely on maximizing the long-term value of the businesses that they "own" and love. If the businesses succeed, they have succeeded. And they stick with us: In our last 36 years, Berkshire has never had a manager of a significant subsidiary voluntarily leave to join another business.
另一群我要深深感谢的,是总部的同事。在这八笔收购将我们全球的员工人数翻了一倍多,增至约 11.2 万人之后,查理和我去年心一软,又给总部添了一个人。(上帝保佑他,查理从不让我忘记本·富兰克林的忠告:“小漏洞也能沉大船。”)如今,我们总部有 13.8 个人。
The other group to which I owe enormous thanks is the home-office staff. After the eight acquisitions more than doubled our worldwide workforce to about 112,000, Charlie and I went soft last year and added one more person at headquarters. (Charlie, bless him, never lets me forget Ben Franklins advice: "A small leak can sink a great ship.") Now we have 13.8 people.
这支小小的团队创造了奇迹。在 2000 年,他们处理了与八笔收购相关的全部细节,完成了大量繁复的监管和税务申报(我们的纳税申报表多达 4,896 页),顺利筹备了一场发出了 25,000 张入场券的股东大会,并准确无误地给股东指定的 3,660 家慈善机构寄出了支票。此外,这个团队还打理着一家年化营收达 400 亿美元、股东超 30 万的公司所派生的所有日常事务。而除了这些,另外那 12.8 个人个个都是与之共事令人愉快的人。
This tiny band works miracles. In 2000 it handled all of the details connected with our eight acquisitions, processed extensive regulatory and tax filings (our tax return covers 4,896 pages), smoothly produced an annual meeting to which 25,000 tickets were issued, and accurately dispensed checks to 3,660 charities designated by our shareholders. In addition, the group dealt with all the routine tasks served up by a company with a revenue run-rate of $40 billion and more than 300,000 owners. And, to add to all of this, the other 12.8 are a delight to be around.
这活儿,我该倒贴钱来干才对。
I should pay to have my job.
2000 年的收购
Acquisitions of 2000
伯克希尔的收购之道简单得不能再简单:我们接电话。也很高兴向各位报告,如今电话铃声响得比过去更勤了些,因为越来越多的企业主和/或经理人希望把公司并入伯克希尔。我们的收购标准列在第 23 页,联系电话是 402-346-1400。
Our acquisition technique at Berkshire is simplicity itself: We answer the phone. Im also glad to report that it rings a bit more often now, because owners and/or managers increasingly wish to join their companies with Berkshire. Our acquisition criteria are set forth on page 23, and the number to call is 402-346-1400.
下面容我讲讲过去 14 个月买下的几家公司,先说 1999 年启动、2000 年才完成交割的那两笔。(这份清单不含子公司经理人自己做的一些小型收购,这些收购在多数情况下会并入他们各自的业务。)
Let me tell you a bit about the businesses we have purchased during the past 14 months, starting with the two transactions that were initiated in 1999, but closed in 2000. (This list excludes some smaller purchases that were made by the managers of our subsidiaries and that, in most cases, will be integrated into their operations.)
头一笔——买下中美能源 76% 的股权——
I described the first purchase ¾ 76% of MidAmerican Energy
我在去年的年报里讲过了。由于监管层对我们的投票权有限制,我们在财务报表中对中美能源的盈利和权益只做“单行合并”处理。如果对该公司数据进行全额合并,2000 年我们的收入会比报表数字多出 50 亿美元,净利润则不变。
¾ in last years report. Because of regulatory constraints on our voting privileges, we perform only a "one-line" consolidation of MidAmericans earnings and equity in our financial statements. If we instead fully consolidated the companys figures, our revenues in 2000 would have been $5 billion greater than we reported, though net income would remain the same.
1999 年 11 月 23 日,我收到布鲁斯·科特发来的一页传真,上面附了一篇《华盛顿
On November 23, 1999, I received a one-page fax from Bruce Cort that appended a Washington
邮报》的文章,讲的是 CORT Business Services 一桩告吹的收购案。尽管名字相似,布鲁斯与 CORT 毫无关联——他是一名飞机经纪人,1986 年曾卖过一架公务机给伯克希尔,在此次传真之前,差不多十年没跟我联系过。
Post article describing an aborted buyout of CORT Business Services . Despite his name, Bruce has no connection with CORT. Rather, he is an airplane broker who had sold Berkshire a jet in 1986 and who, before the fax, had not been in touch with me for about ten years.
我对 CORT 一无所知,但马上把它在 SEC 的备案文件打印出来,看后颇为中意。当天我就告诉布鲁斯,我可能有兴趣,请他安排我与 CORT 的首席执行官保罗·阿诺德见一面。11 月 29 日,保罗和我碰了头,我立刻意识到这笔收购该有的要件都齐了:一门虽不起眼但质地上乘的生意、一位出色的经理人,以及一个(参照那桩未成交交易)合情合理的价格。
I knew nothing about CORT, but I immediately printed out its SEC filings and liked what I saw. That same day I told Bruce I had a possible interest and asked him to arrange a meeting with Paul Arnold, CORTs CEO. Paul and I got together on November 29, and I knew at once that we had the right ingredients for a purchase: a fine though unglamorous business, an outstanding manager, and a price (going by that on the failed deal) that made sense.
CORT 通过 117 家展厅开展业务,是“以租代租”家具领域的全国龙头——这类家具主要用于办公室,公寓的临时住户也会租用。需要指出的是,这门生意与“以租代购”完全不是一回事:后者通常是把家居用品和电子产品卖给收入有限、信用欠佳的人群。
Operating out of 117 showrooms, CORT is the national leader in "rent-to-rent" furniture, primarily used in offices but also by temporary occupants of apartments. This business, it should be noted, has no similarity to "rent-to-own" operations, which usually involve the sale of home furnishings and electronics to people having limited income and poor credit.
我们很快通过持股 80% 的子公司西科金融买下了 CORT,支付了约 3.86 亿美元现金。关于 CORT 业务的更多细节,可以查阅西科金融 1999 和 2000 年的年报。查理和我都很乐于与保罗共事,而 CORT 也很有希望超出我们最初的预期。
We quickly purchased CORT for Wesco, our 80%-owned subsidiary, paying about $386 million in cash. You will find more details about CORTs operations in Wescos 1999 and 2000 annual reports. Both Charlie and I enjoy working with Paul, and CORT looks like a good bet to beat our original expectations.
去年年初,通用再保险的罗恩·弗格森把我引荐给鲍勃·贝里——贝里家族拥有美国责任险公司(U.S. Liability)已有 49 年。这家保险公司连同两家姊妹公司,是一家中等规模、备受推崇的特殊风险承保商,用保险业的行话来说,做的是“超额与剩余险”。鲍勃和我联系上之后,通过电话就敲定了一笔一半股票、一半现金的交易。
Early last year, Ron Ferguson of General Re put me in contact with Bob Berry, whose family had owned U.S. Liability for 49 years. This insurer, along with two sister companies, is a medium-sized, highly-respected writer of unusual risks ¾ "excess and surplus lines" in insurance jargon. After Bob and I got in touch, we agreed by phone on a half-stock, half-cash deal.
近年来,汤姆·内尔尼一直替贝里家族打理这份事业,他做到了出色的增长与超常的盈利兼得,实属罕见。汤姆在其他方面也是一把好手。他除了有四个领养的孩子(两个来自俄罗斯),还有一个大家庭:费城美人队,一支由他执教的十来岁女孩篮球队。这支球队去年的战绩是 62 胜 4 负,在 AAU 全国锦标赛上取得了第二名。
In recent years, Tom Nerney has managed the operation for the Berry family and has achieved a rare combination of excellent growth and unusual profitability. Tom is a powerhouse in other ways as well. In addition to having four adopted children (two from Russia), he has an extended family: the Philadelphia Belles, a young-teen girls basketball team that Tom coaches. The team had a 62-4 record last year and finished second in the AAU national tournament.
财产险公司里,称得上出类拔萃的生意寥寥无几。我们拥有的却远超应占份额,而美国责任险公司又为这份收藏增添了一分光彩。
Few property-casualty companies are outstanding businesses. We have far more than our share, and U.S. Liability adds luster to the collection.
本·布瑞奇珠宝行是我们另一笔通过电话达成的收购,在此之前我和管理层甚至没碰过面。埃德·布瑞奇与他的堂兄乔恩共同经营着这家拥有 65 家门店的西海岸零售商。他是巴尼特·赫尔茨伯格的朋友——我们 1995 年从巴尼特手中买下了赫尔茨伯格钻石。得知布瑞奇家族有意出售公司,巴尼特便向我们力荐。之后,埃德打来电话向我介绍了业务,又寄来了一些数据,我们便达成了交易,同样是现金、股票各一半。
Ben Bridge Jeweler was another purchase we made by phone, prior to any face-to-face meeting between me and the management. Ed Bridge, who with his cousin, Jon, manages this 65-store West Coast retailer, is a friend of Barnett Helzberg, from whom we bought Helzberg Diamonds in 1995. Upon learning that the Bridge family proposed to sell its company, Barnett gave Berkshire a strong recommendation. Ed then called and explained his business to me, also sending some figures, and we made a deal, again half for cash and half for stock.
埃德和乔恩是一家 89 年前创立于西雅图的企业的第四代所有者兼经营者。无论是这门生意,还是包括乔恩和埃德的父亲赫布与鲍勃在内的整个家族,都享有非凡的声誉。过去七年,同店销售额的增长率分别是 9%、11%、13%、10%、12%、21% 和 7%,着实是一份了不起的成绩单。
Ed and Jon are fourth generation owner-managers of a business started 89 years ago in Seattle. Both the business and the family ¾ including Herb and Bob, the fathers of Jon and Ed ¾ enjoy extraordinary reputations. Same-store sales have increased by 9%, 11%, 13%, 10%, 12%, 21% and 7% over the past seven years, a truly remarkable record.
对这个家族至关重要的是,公司日后能一如既往地经营下去。谁都不愿看到另一家珠宝连锁进来,打着协同增效、降本节支的主意(这些招数虽说从来不管用,但肯定会有人来试),把这家公司折腾得面目全非。我告诉埃德和乔恩,主事的还是他们——他们知道我这人说话算数:毕竟明摆着,真要叫你们董事长去看店、卖珠宝,那准是一场灾难(不过他家里倒有几位在采购上练成了黑带高手)。
It was vital to the family that the company operate in the future as in the past. No one wanted another jewelry chain to come in and decimate the organization with ideas about synergy and cost saving (which, though they would never work, were certain to be tried). I told Ed and Jon that they would be in charge, and they knew I could be believed: After all, its obvious that your Chairman would be a disaster at actually running a store or selling jewelry (though there are members of his family who have earned black belts as purchasers).
布瑞奇一家以他们一贯的体面做法,把出售所得的相当一部分,分给了几百名曾帮公司取得成功的同事。能与这个家族和这家公司结缘,我们深感荣幸。
In their typically classy way, the Bridges allocated a substantial portion of the proceeds from their sale to the hundreds of co-workers who had helped the company achieve its success. Were proud to be associated with both the family and the company.
7 月,我们收购了贾斯汀工业公司——它既是西部靴的龙头制造商(旗下拥有贾斯汀、托尼·拉马、诺科纳和奇佩瓦等品牌),也是得克萨斯及邻近五州首屈一指的制砖企业。
In July we acquired Justin Industries , the leading maker of Western boots ¾ including the Justin, Tony Lama, Nocona, and Chippewa brands ¾ and the premier producer of brick in Texas and five neighboring states.
这次收购同样事出偶然。5 月 4 日,我收到马克·琼斯发来的一份传真,我此前并不认识他。他提议伯克希尔加入一个财团,去收购一家未具名的公司。我回传真向他说明,除极个别情形外,我们不与他人合伙投资,但他如果愿意把细节发来,而我们日后确实完成收购,我将很乐意付他一笔佣金。他回复说,那家“神秘公司”就是贾斯汀。我随后赶往沃思堡,与公司董事长约翰·罗奇以及一手将公司发展壮大并任大股东的约翰·贾斯汀会面。不久之后,我们便以 5.7 亿美元现金买下了贾斯汀。
Here again, our acquisition involved serendipity. On May 4th, I received a fax from Mark Jones, a stranger to me, proposing that Berkshire join a group to acquire an unnamed company. I faxed him back, explaining that with rare exceptions we dont invest with others, but would happily pay him a commission if he sent details and we later made a purchase. He replied that the "mystery company" was Justin. I then went to Fort Worth to meet John Roach, chairman of the company and John Justin, who had built the business and was its major shareholder. Soon after, we bought Justin for $570 million in cash.
约翰·贾斯汀深爱贾斯汀工业,却因重病被迫退休(令人痛惜的是,他于 2 月底去世)。约翰为人堪称典范——无论是作为公民、商人,还是作为一个普通人。所幸,他已培养出两位出色的经理人:阿克米的哈罗德·梅尔顿和贾斯汀靴业的兰迪·沃森,两人各自独立掌管所在公司。
John Justin loved Justin Industries but had been forced to retire because of severe health problems (which sadly led to his death in late February). John was a class act ¾ as a citizen, businessman and human being. Fortunately, he had groomed two outstanding managers, Harrold Melton at Acme and Randy Watson at Justin Boot, each of whom runs his company autonomously.
两家里头块头较大的阿克米,靠 22 座工厂每年产砖逾 10 亿块,约占全美产量的 11.7%。不过制砖生意天然带地域性,而在自家地盘上,阿克米的龙头地位无可争议。当问得克萨斯人叫得出哪个砖块牌子时,75% 的人会答阿克米,排第二的品牌只有 16%。(收购之前,我一个砖块牌子都说不上来。你说得上吗?)这份品牌认知度,既靠阿克米的产品过硬,也源于公司和约翰·贾斯汀本人几十年如一日的社区服务。
Acme, the larger of the two operations, produces more than one billion bricks per year at its 22 plants, about 11.7% of the industrys national output. The brick business, however, is necessarily regional, and in its territory Acme enjoys unquestioned leadership. When Texans are asked to name a brand of brick, 75% respond Acme, compared to 16% for the runner-up. (Before our purchase, I couldnt have named a brand of brick. Could you have?) This brand recognition is not only due to Acmes product quality, but also reflects many decades of extraordinary community service by both the company and John Justin.
我忍不住要指出:伯克希尔——其最高管理层早已深陷 19 世纪——如今竟成了世上寥寥可数的货真价实的“鼠标加砖头”企业之一。跨入 2000 年时,GEICO 已在互联网上做出可观的生意,现在又添上了阿克米。你大可押注,伯克希尔这一步棋,正让硅谷那帮人直冒冷汗。
I cant resist pointing out that Berkshire ¾ whose top management has long been mired in the 19 th century ¾ is now one of the very few authentic "clicks-and-bricks" businesses around. We went into 2000 with GEICO doing significant business on the Internet, and then we added Acme. You can bet this move by Berkshire is making them sweat in Silicon Valley.
6 月,全球最大地毯制造商肖氏工业的首席执行官鲍勃·肖,携其搭档朱利安·索尔,以及肖氏当时正考虑与之合并的另一家公司的首席执行官,一同来见我。不过,那家潜在合并对象因过往业务背上巨额石棉赔偿责任,任何交易都需先通过保险将该项负债化解掉方可进行。
In June, Bob Shaw, CEO of Shaw Industries , the worlds largest carpet manufacturer, came to see me with his partner, Julian Saul, and the CEO of a second company with which Shaw was mulling a merger. The potential partner, however, faced huge asbestos liabilities from past activities, and any deal depended on these being eliminated through insurance.
来访的几位高管希望伯克希尔能出一份保单,将未来所有的石棉赔付责任统统包下来。我向他们解释,我们固然开得出一张格外巨大的保单——大到其他任何一家保险公司想都不敢想——但我们绝不会签发一张没有赔付上限的保单。
The executives visiting me wanted Berkshire to provide a policy that would pay all future asbestos costs. I explained that though we could write an exceptionally large policy ¾ far larger than any other insurer would ever think of offering ¾ we would never issue a policy that lacked a cap.
鲍勃和朱利安认定,如果我们不愿拿全部身家去赌那家被收购方负债的深浅,那他们自己也不赌。于是他们的合并交易告吹。但我对肖氏的兴趣却被点燃了,几个月后,查理和我与鲍勃会面,商定了由伯克希尔收购的方案。该笔交易的一个关键要点是,鲍勃和朱利安都将继续各自持有肖氏至少 5% 的股份。这使我们得以与业内最优秀的人结伴同行——鲍勃和朱利安的履历足以证明这一点:他俩在 1998 年携手合作之前,各自都已缔造了一家庞大而成功的地毯企业。
Bob and Julian decided that if we didnt want to bet the ranch on the extent of the acquirees liability, neither did they. So their deal died. But my interest in Shaw was sparked, and a few months later Charlie and I met with Bob to work out a purchase by Berkshire. A key feature of the deal was that both Bob and Julian were to continue owning at least 5% of Shaw. This leaves us associated with the best in the business as shown by Bob and Julians record: Each built a large, successful carpet business before joining forces in 1998.
肖氏年销售额约 40 亿美元,我们持有其 87.3% 的股份。撇开保险业务不算,肖氏是我们迄今规模最大的业务。这下,就算以后有人把我们踩在脚下,我们也不介意了。
Shaw has annual sales of about $4 billion, and we own 87.3% of the company. Leaving aside our insurance operation, Shaw is by far our largest business. Now, if people walk all over us, we wont mind.
7 月,本杰明·摩尔涂料公司的董事鲍勃·芒德海姆来电,问伯克希尔是否有意将其收购。我在所罗门公司时便认识鲍勃——在那段艰难时期他担任总法律顾问——我对他一向敬重有加。因此我回答说:“再详细说说看。”
In July, Bob Mundheim, a director of Benjamin Moore Paint , called to ask if Berkshire might be interested in acquiring it. I knew Bob from Salomon, where he was general counsel during some difficult times, and held him in very high regard. So my answer was "Tell me more."
8 月下旬,查理和我见到了本杰明·摩尔的前任和现任首席执行官理查德·鲁布与伊万·杜佩。人我们喜欢,生意我们也中意,当场便报出 10 亿美元现金的收购价格。10 月,他们董事会批准了交易,我们在 12 月完成了交割。本杰明·摩尔生产涂料已有 117 年,旗下拥有数千家独立经销商,这是公司业务的一项关键资产。下次您再刷漆,请务必指定用我们的产品。
In late August, Charlie and I met with Richard Roob and Yvan Dupuy, past and present CEOs of Benjamin Moore. We liked them; we liked the business; and we made a $1 billion cash offer on the spot. In October, their board approved the transaction, and we completed it in December. Benjamin Moore has been making paint for 117 years and has thousands of independent dealers that are a vital asset to its business. Make sure you specify our product for your next paint job.
最后,在 12 月下旬,我们同意以约 18 亿美元收购约翰斯·曼维尔公司。这家公司过去几十年的离奇历程——个中原委过于复杂,在此不便细述——均由其作为石棉制品制造商的漫长历史所塑造。广受关注的石棉致病问题,殃及了众多与之接触的人,并最终导致曼维尔在 1982 年申请破产。
Finally, in late December, we agreed to buy Johns Manville Corp. for about $1.8 billion. This companys incredible odyssey over the last few decades ¾ too multifaceted to be chronicled here ¾ was shaped by its long history as a manufacturer of asbestos products. The much-publicized health problems that affected many people exposed to asbestos led to JMs declaring bankruptcy in 1982.
此后,破产法院为受害者设立了一项信托,其主要资产便是对曼维尔的控股权。该信托出于分散资产的合理意愿,在去年 6 月同意将公司出售给一家杠杆收购的买家。然而,那个杠杆收购团队最终未能筹到资金。
Subsequently, the bankruptcy court established a trust for victims, the major asset of which was a controlling interest in JM. The trust, which sensibly wanted to diversify its assets, agreed last June to sell the business to an LBO buyer. In the end, though, the LBO group was unable to obtain financing.
于是,这宗交易在 12 月 8 日(周五)被取消。接下来的周一,查理和我致电信托主席鲍勃·费利斯,报出一个全现金、无任何融资先决条件的收购方案。第二天,受托人初步表决接受了我们的报价,一周后我们便签妥了合同。
Consequently, the deal was called off on Friday, December 8 th . The following Monday, Charlie and I called Bob Felise, chairman of the trust, and made an all-cash offer with no financing contingencies. The next day the trustees voted tentatively to accept our offer, and a week later we signed a contract.
约翰斯·曼维尔(JM)是美国商用和工业保温材料的头号厂商,在屋面系统和多种工程产品上也占据重要地位。公司销售额超过 20 亿美元,回报虽有周期起伏,却相当不错。JM 的首席执行官杰里·亨利一年前宣布了退休计划,但我很高兴地向各位报告,查理和我已经说服他留任。
JM is the nations leading producer of commercial and industrial insulation and also has major positions in roofing systems and a variety of engineered products. The companys sales exceed $2 billion and the business has earned good, if cyclical, returns. Jerry Henry, JMs CEO, had announced his retirement plans a year ago, but Im happy to report that Charlie and I have convinced him to stick around.
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去年收购活动蜂拥而至,背后可能有两个经济因素。第一,许多经理人和所有者都预见到近期自身业务会放缓——事实上,我们收购的几家公司今年盈利几乎肯定会从 1999 年或 2000 年的高峰回落。这种回落对我们无关紧要,因为我们本来就预期旗下所有公司都会时而起伏。(只有在投行的销售演示材料里,利润才会永远向上走。)我们不在乎这些颠簸,重要的是整体结果。但其他人的决策有时会受到近期前景的影响,这种影响既会促使卖家出售,也会给原本可能与我们竞争的买家降温。
Two economic factors probably contributed to the rush of acquisition activity we experienced last year. First, many managers and owners foresaw near-term slowdowns in their businesses ¾ and, in fact, we purchased several companies whose earnings will almost certainly decline this year from peaks they reached in 1999 or 2000. The declines make no difference to us, given that we expect all of our businesses to now and then have ups and downs. (Only in the sales presentations of investment banks do earnings move forever upward.) We dont care about the bumps; what matters are the overall results. But the decisions of other people are sometimes affected by the near-term outlook, which can both spur sellers and temper the enthusiasm of purchasers who might otherwise compete with us.
2000 年帮到我们的第二个因素是,随着时间推移,垃圾债市场趋于枯竭。在此前两年,垃圾债买家不断放松标准,以不合理的价格买入越来越弱的发行人的债务。这种放任造成的后果在去年集中爆发,违约数量激增。在这种环境下,“财务型”买家——那些希望只用极少自有资金完成收购的人——再也借不到他们自认为所需的全额资金,而且即使还能借到,成本也十分高昂。因此,去年有企业出售时,杠杆收购方的出价不再那么激进。而我们在分析收购时始终以全自有资金为基础,我们的估值没有变化,这也就意味着我们的竞争力大大增强。
A second factor that helped us in 2000 was that the market for junk bonds dried up as the year progressed. In the two preceding years, junk bond purchasers had relaxed their standards, buying the obligations of ever-weaker issuers at inappropriate prices. The effects of this laxity were felt last year in a ballooning of defaults. In this environment, "financial" buyers of businesses ¾ those who wish to buy using only a sliver of equity ¾ became unable to borrow all they thought they needed. What they could still borrow, moreover, came at a high price. Consequently, LBO operators became less aggressive in their bidding when businesses came up for sale last year. Because we analyze purchases on an all-equity basis, our evaluations did not change, which means we became considerably more competitive.
除了让我们受益的经济因素之外,我们在收购方面现在还享有一项重要且不断增长的优势:我们往往是卖家的首选买家。当然,这一点并不能保证达成交易——卖家得接受我们的报价,我们也得认可他们的业务和管理层——但这确实有帮助。
Aside from the economic factors that benefited us, we now enjoy a major and growing advantage in making acquisitions in that we are often the buyer of choice for the seller. That fact, of course, doesnt assure a deal ¾ sellers have to like our price, and we have to like their business and management ¾ but it does help.
当一位所有者在意把企业卖给谁时,我们觉得这意义重大。我们愿意与真正热爱自己公司、而非只盯着出售所得金钱的人做生意(当然,我们完全理解他们同样喜欢这笔钱)。这种情感依恋一旦存在,往往标志着企业内部可以找到一些重要的品质:诚实的会计、对产品引以为豪、尊重客户,以及一支方向感极强的忠诚团队。反过来通常也成立。当一位所有者把自己的公司拿出来拍卖,对拍卖之后的一切完全漠不关心时,你经常会发现这笔业务是为了出售而精心粉饰过的,尤其是当卖家是一名“财务型所有者”时。而且,如果所有者对待自己的业务和员工都漫不经心,他们的行为常常会污染整个公司的态度和做事方式。
We find it meaningful when an owner cares about whom he sells to. We like to do business with someone who loves his company, not just the money that a sale will bring him (though we certainly understand why he likes that as well). When this emotional attachment exists, it signals that important qualities will likely be found within the business: honest accounting, pride of product, respect for customers, and a loyal group of associates having a strong sense of direction. The reverse is apt to be true, also. When an owner auctions off his business, exhibiting a total lack of interest in what follows, you will frequently find that it has been dressed up for sale, particularly when the seller is a "financial owner." And if owners behave with little regard for their business and its people, their conduct will often contaminate attitudes and practices throughout the company.
当一件商业杰作是靠着毕生——甚至几代人——毫不吝惜的投入和非凡的才华创造出来的,那么把它托付给哪家公司来续写历史,对所有者来说理应至关重要。查理和我相信,伯克希尔提供了一个近乎独一无二的归宿。我们极为认真地对待我们对创造这些事业的人所负的责任,伯克希尔的所有权结构也确保我们能够兑现承诺。当我们告诉约翰·贾斯汀他的公司总部将留在沃思堡,或者向布瑞奇家族保证他们的企业不会被并入其他珠宝商时,这些卖家完全可以把这些承诺视为板上钉钉。
When a business masterpiece has been created by a lifetime ¾ or several lifetimes ¾ of unstinting care and exceptional talent, it should be important to the owner what corporation is entrusted to carry on its history. Charlie and I believe Berkshire provides an almost unique home. We take our obligations to the people who created a business very seriously, and Berkshires ownership structure ensures that we can fulfill our promises. When we tell John Justin that his business will remain headquartered in Fort Worth, or assure the Bridge family that its operation will not be merged with another jeweler, these sellers can take those promises to the bank.
让企业中的“伦勃朗”的“创作者”亲自为其选择永久的归宿,远比让某个信托专员或毫无兴趣的继承人将其拍卖要好得多。这些年来,我们与那些认清这一真理并将其应用于自己亲手创办的事业的人,都有过极好的经历。拍卖这种事,就留给别人吧。
How much better it is for the "painter" of a business Rembrandt to personally select its permanent home than to have a trust officer or uninterested heirs auction it off. Throughout the years we have had great experiences with those who recognize that truth and apply it to their business creations. Well leave the auctions to others.
财产/意外险的经济学
The Economics of Property/Casualty Insurance
我们的主业是保险——尽管我们也拥有其他非常重要的生意。因此,要理解伯克希尔,你就有必要懂得如何评估一家保险公司。关键的决定因素有三点:(1)这项业务产生的浮存金规模;(2)浮存金的成本;以及(3)最关键的是,这两项因素的长期前景。
Our main business ¾ though we have others of great importance ¾ is insurance. To understand Berkshire, therefore, it is necessary that you understand how to evaluate an insurance company. The key determinants are: (1) the amount of float that the business generates; (2) its cost; and (3) most critical of all, the long-term outlook for both of these factors.
首先,浮存金是我们持有但并不拥有的钱。在保险经营中,浮存金的产生是因为保费在损失赔付之前就已收取,这个间隔有时会长达多年。在此期间,保险公司用这笔钱进行投资。这件令人愉快的事通常也伴随着一个缺点:保险公司收取的保费往往不足以覆盖它最终必须支付的损失和费用。这就使其产生了“承保亏损”,也就是浮存金的成本。如果一家保险公司浮存金的长期成本低于公司通过其他方式获取资金的成本,那么这项保险业务就有价值。但如果浮存金的成本高于市场资金成本,这项业务就是一个赔钱货。
To begin with, float is money we hold but don't own. In an insurance operation, float arises because premiums are received before losses are paid, an interval that sometimes extends over many years. During that time, the insurer invests the money. This pleasant activity typically carries with it a downside: The premiums that an insurer takes in usually do not cover the losses and expenses it eventually must pay. That leaves it running an "underwriting loss," which is the cost of float. An insurance business has value if its cost of float over time is less than the cost the company would otherwise incur to obtain funds. But the business is a lemon if its cost of float is higher than market rates for money.
这里有必要提醒一句:由于损失成本必须预估,保险公司在核算承保结果时拥有极大的自由度,这使投资者很难计算出一家公司真实的浮存金成本。估算错误——通常是无心的,但有时未必——可能数额巨大。这些误算的后果会直接进入利润。有经验的观察者通常能发现准备金计提中的大规模错误,但普通大众一般只能接受摆在面前的数据,而我有时会对一些大牌审计师默许的那些数字感到吃惊。保险公司的利润表和资产负债表都可能是雷区。
A caution is appropriate here: Because loss costs must be estimated, insurers have enormous latitude in figuring their underwriting results, and that makes it very difficult for investors to calculate a company's true cost of float. Errors of estimation, usually innocent but sometimes not, can be huge. The consequences of these miscalculations flow directly into earnings. An experienced observer can usually detect large-scale errors in reserving, but the general public can typically do no more than accept what's presented, and at times I have been amazed by the numbers that big-name auditors have implicitly blessed. Both the income statements and balance sheets of insurers can be minefields.
在伯克希尔,我们力求在准备金计提上做到既一贯又保守。但我们依然会犯错误。而且我们要提醒各位,保险业中的意外从不对称:它们几乎无一例外都是令人不快的。
At Berkshire, we strive to be both consistent and conservative in our reserving. But we will make mistakes. And we warn you that there is nothing symmetrical about surprises in the insurance business: They almost always are unpleasant.
下表(以间隔年份)列示了自 34 年前我们通过收购国民赔偿公司(其传统险种包含在“其他直接险”类别中)进入保险行业以来,伯克希尔各保险板块所产生的浮存金。在下表中,我们将净未决赔款准备金、理赔费用准备金、分入再保险项下持有的资金以及未到期保费准备金相加,再减去保险相关应收款、预付展业成本、预付税款以及分入再保险相关的递延费用,以此计算出我们的浮存金——相对于我们的保费规模,我们产生的浮存金数额巨大。(别慌,不考这个。)
The table that follows shows (at intervals) the float generated by the various segments of Berkshires insurance operations since we entered the business 34 years ago upon acquiring National Indemnity Company (whose traditional lines are included in the segment "Other Primary"). For the table we have calculated our float ¾ which we generate in large amounts relative to our premium volume ¾ by adding net loss reserves, loss adjustment reserves, funds held under reinsurance assumed and unearned premium reserves, and then subtracting insurance-related receivables, prepaid acquisition costs, prepaid taxes and deferred charges applicable to assumed reinsurance. (Dont panic, there wont be a quiz.)
年末浮存金(单位:百万美元)
Yearend Float (in $ millions)
年份
Year
GEICO
GEICO
通用再保险
General Re
其他再保险业务
Other Reinsurance
其他直接保险业务
Other Primary
总计
Total
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
1967 20 20 1977 40 131 171 1987 701 807 1,508 1997 2,917 4,014 455 7,386 1998 3,125 14,909 4,305 415 22,754 1999 3,444 15,166 6,285 403 25,298 2000 3,943 15,525 7,805 598 27,871
1967 20 20 1977 40 131 171 1987 701 807 1,508 1997 2,917 4,014 455 7,386 1998 3,125 14,909 4,305 415 22,754 1999 3,444 15,166 6,285 403 25,298 2000 3,943 15,525 7,805 598 27,871
2000 年浮存金的增长令我们欣慰,但其成本却令我们不满。多年来,我们的浮存金成本一直紧贴零——大多数年份实现的承保利润,足以抵销偶尔出现的极差年份,比如 1984 年那次,成本高达惊人的 19%。然而,2000 年我们出现了 16 亿美元的承保亏损,浮存金成本达到 6%。若不发生特大灾难,我们预计 2001 年的浮存金成本将会下降——或许会大幅下降——这主要归功于通用再保险在定价上的修正,这一效果应会随着年内时间推移越来越明显。规模较小的 GEICO,也可能呈现同样的改善趋势。
Were pleased by the growth in our float during 2000 but not happy with its cost. Over the years, our cost of float has been very close to zero, with the underwriting profits realized in most years offsetting the occasional terrible year such as 1984, when our cost was a staggering 19%. In 2000, however, we had an underwriting loss of $1.6 billion, which gave us a float cost of 6%. Absent a mega-catastrophe, we expect our float cost to fall in 2001 ¾ perhaps substantially ¾ in large part because of corrections in pricing at General Re that should increasingly be felt as the year progresses. On a smaller scale, GEICO may experience the same improving trend.
有两个影响我们浮存金成本的因素,在其他保险公司极为罕见,如今在伯克希尔却相当突出。第一,少数正在承受大额亏损的保险公司,把其中相当大一部分亏损转移给了我们,这种方式会拖累我们当期的盈利,却给了我们一笔能在未来许多年使用的浮存金。在保单第一年我们承受了该笔亏损之后,这类业务便不再产生后续成本。
There are two factors affecting our cost of float that are very rare at other insurers but that now loom large at Berkshire. First, a few insurers that are currently experiencing large losses have offloaded a significant portion of these on us in a manner that penalizes our current earnings but gives us float we can use for many years to come. After the loss that we incur in the first year of the policy, there are no further costs attached to this business.
只要这类保单定价得当,我们欢迎它们带来的“今天承受痛苦、明天收获回报”的效应。1999 年,我们的承保亏损中有 4 亿美元(约占总亏损的 27.8%)来自此类业务,2000 年这一数字为 4.82 亿美元(占我们总亏损的 34.4%)。我们无法预测将来会承接多少类似业务,但一旦承接,通常都是大额交易。由于这些交易会显著扭曲我们的数据,每逢发生,我们都会向各位说明。
When these policies are properly priced, we welcome the pain-today, gain-tomorrow effects they have. In 1999, $400 million of our underwriting loss (about 27.8% of the total) came from business of this kind and in 2000 the figure was $482 million (34.4% of our loss). We have no way of predicting how much similar business we will write in the future, but what we do get will typically be in large chunks. Because these transactions can materially distort our figures, we will tell you about them as they occur.
其他再保险公司对这种保险业务兴趣寥寥。它们实在难以忍受巨额承保亏损对财报业绩造成的冲击,即便这些亏损所对应的保单,从整体经济意义上讲,最终必定是有利可图的。因此,各位在将我们的承保业绩与其他保险公司比较时,应当格外谨慎。
Other reinsurers have little taste for this insurance. They simply cant stomach what huge underwriting losses do to their reported results, even though these losses are produced by policies whose overall economics are certain to be favorable. You should be careful, therefore, in comparing our underwriting results with those of other insurers.
我们数据中一个更为重大的项目——同样,你在别处也见不到多少——源自这类交易:我们承接一家想要甩掉旧包袱的公司过往发生的亏损。举例来说,XYZ 保险公司去年可能购买了一份保单,要求我们承担比如 1995 年及更早年份发生的事件所产生的前 10 亿美元亏损和理赔费用。这类合同金额可以十分巨大,不过我们总会给风险敞口设一个上限。2000 年我们达成了数笔此类交易,预计 2001 年还将再完成几笔。
An even more significant item in our numbers ¾ which, again, you wont find much of elsewhere ¾ arises from transactions in which we assume past losses of a company that wants to put its troubles behind it. To illustrate, the XYZ insurance company might have last year bought a policy obligating us to pay the first $1 billion of losses and loss adjustment expenses from events that happened in, say, 1995 and earlier years. These contracts can be very large, though we always require a cap on our exposure. We entered into a number of such transactions in 2000 and expect to close several more in 2001.
根据公认会计原则(GAAP),这种“追溯性”保险对当期盈利既无增益,也无减损。相反,我们设立了一项名为“分入再保险对应递延费用”的资产,其金额反映了我们收到的保费与预期将支付的(更高的)亏损额(已相应立即计提准备金)之间的差额。随后,我们逐年将这项资产摊销计入盈利,形成等额的承保亏损。这类交易产生的亏损金额,各位可在我们的季度和年度管理层讨论与分析中找到。就其性质而言,这些亏损将持续多年,往往长达数十年。不过,作为对价,我们获得了浮存金的使用权——而且是大量的浮存金。
Under GAAP accounting, this "retroactive" insurance neither benefits nor penalizes our current earnings. Instead, we set up an asset called "deferred charges applicable to assumed reinsurance," in an amount reflecting the difference between the premium we receive and the (higher) losses we expect to pay (for which reserves are immediately established). We then amortize this asset by making annual charges to earnings that create equivalent underwriting losses. You will find the amount of the loss that we incur from these transactions in both our quarterly and annual management discussion. By their nature, these losses will continue for many years, often stretching into decades. As an offset, though, we have the use of float ¾ lots of it.
显然,承担此种年度资金成本的浮存金,不如我们预期能产生承保利润的保单所带来的浮存金那样理想(此类保单我们有很多)。尽管如此,追溯保险对我们来说,应当仍是一门不错的生意。
Clearly, float carrying an annual cost of this kind is not as desirable as float we generate from policies that are expected to produce an underwriting profit (of which we have plenty). Nevertheless, this retroactive insurance should be decent business for us.
总结以上这一切就是:第一,我预计未来我们的浮存金成本会相当有吸引力,但第二,由于追溯再保险每年加诸在我们身上的费用,它很难再回到“零成本”状态。此外——这一点显而易见——我们最终能从浮存金中获得的益处,不仅取决于其成本,还同等重要地取决于我们如何有效运用它。
The net of all this is that a) I expect our cost of float to be very attractive in the future but b) rarely to return to a "no-cost" mode because of the annual charge that retroactive reinsurance will lay on us. Also ¾ obviously ¾ the ultimate benefits that we derive from float will depend not only on its cost but, fully as important, how effectively we deploy it.
我们的追溯业务几乎可以说是阿吉特·贾恩以一己之力开创的,他是我年年都要称赞的人。阿吉特对伯克希尔的价值,无论如何强调都不为过。别为我的健康担心;该为他的健康担心。
Our retroactive business is almost single-handedly the work of Ajit Jain, whose praises I sing annually. It is impossible to overstate how valuable Ajit is to Berkshire. Dont worry about my health; worry about his.
去年,阿吉特为一张追溯承保一家英国大公司的保单,带回了 24 亿美元的再保险保费,这或许是有史以来最大的一笔。此后,他又签发了一张大额保单,为得克萨斯游骑兵队(Texas Rangers)提供保障,以防亚历克斯·罗德里格斯(Alex Rodriguez)永久性伤残。体育迷都知道,“A-Rod”签下了创纪录的 2.52 亿美元合同;我们认为,我们的这份保单,大概也创下了伤残保险的纪录。我们还为其他许多体育界人士提供保障。
Last year, Ajit brought home a $2.4 billion reinsurance premium, perhaps the largest in history, from a policy that retroactively covers a major U.K. company. Subsequently, he wrote a large policy protecting the Texas Rangers from the possibility that Alex Rodriguez will become permanently disabled. As sports fans know, "A-Rod" was signed for $252 million, a record, and we think that our policy probably also set a record for disability insurance. We cover many other sports figures as well.
阿吉特多方面才能的另一个例证是,去年秋天他与一家名为 Grab.com 的互联网公司洽谈了一笔很有意思的交易。该公司的目标是吸引数百万人访问其网站,并从中获取对营销商有价值的信息。为招徕用户,Grab.com 开出了 10 亿美元大奖(现值为 1.7 亿美元)的中奖可能性,我们则为这笔奖金的支付承保。网站上的说明解释道,任何人赢得大奖的概率都很低,而事实上也确实没人中奖。但中奖的可能性绝不为零。
In another example of his versatility, Ajit last fall negotiated a very interesting deal with Grab.com, an Internet company whose goal was to attract millions of people to its site and there to extract information from them that would be useful to marketers. To lure these people, Grab.com held out the possibility of a $1 billion prize (having a $170 million present value) and we insured its payment. A message on the site explained that the chance of anyone winning the prize was low, and indeed no one won. But the possibility of a win was far from nil.
承保这样一份保单,我们收取的保费不多,面临着发生巨额亏损的可能性,且赔率对我们有利。很少有保险公司喜欢这种算式。而且,它们也无法通过再保险来化解这种不情愿。因为每份保单都具有不寻常——有时甚至是独一无二——的特征,保险公司无法通过其标准再保险安排,来转嫁偶发的冲击性亏损。因此,任何一家做此类业务的保险公司 CEO,都必须承担一种虽小却真切存在的风险,即某个季度可能出现一个极难看的盈利数字,一个他不会乐意向董事会或股东解释的数字。而查理和我相反,我们偏爱任何在数学上极具说服力的方案,无论它对财报盈利有何影响。
Writing such a policy, we receive a modest premium, face the possibility of a huge loss, and get good odds. Very few insurers like that equation. And theyre unable to cure their unhappiness by reinsurance. Because each policy has unusual ¾ and sometimes unique ¾ characteristics, insurers cant lay off the occasional shock loss through their standard reinsurance arrangements. Therefore, any insurance CEO doing a piece of business like this must run the small, but real, risk of a horrible quarterly earnings number, one that he would not enjoy explaining to his board or shareholders. Charlie and I, however, like any proposition that makes compelling mathematical sense, regardless of its effect on reported earnings.
通用再保险方面,消息已大为好转:罗恩·弗格森(Ron Ferguson)与乔·布兰登(Joe Brandon)、塔德·蒙特罗斯(Tad Montross)以及一支才华横溢的后备团队一道,在 2000 年采取了多项举措,以使该公司盈利能力重返过往标准。尽管定价尚未完全修正到位,但我们已大幅重定了那些严重亏损业务的价格,或干脆舍弃了这类业务。若 2001 年不发生特大灾难,通用再保险的浮存金成本应会显著下降。
At General Re, the news has turned considerably better: Ron Ferguson, along with Joe Brandon, Tad Montross, and a talented supporting cast took many actions during 2000 to bring that companys profitability back to past standards. Though our pricing is not fully corrected, we have significantly repriced business that was severely unprofitable or dropped it altogether. If theres no mega-catastrophe in 2001, General Res float cost should fall materially.
过去这两年,罗恩和他的班子过得可不轻松。可他们敢于拍板那些难下的决心,查理和我为此给他们鼓掌。通用再保险有几项要紧且经得起时间的经营优势;更妙的是,它有一批能把这些优势用到极致的经理人。
The last couple of years havent been any fun for Ron and his crew. But they have stepped up to tough decisions, and Charlie and I applaud them for these. General Re has several important and enduring business advantages. Better yet, it has managers who will make the most of them.
总的来看,我们那些规模较小的保险生意在 2000 年做出了漂亮的承保利润,同时产生了可观的浮存金——十几年来一向如此。若把它们拼成一家独立的公司,人们准会认它是一家出类拔萃的保险商。可正因为这些公司身处伯克希尔这样一个庞然大物之内,世人未必领会它们的成就——但我看得真真切切。去年我谢过了罗德·埃尔德雷德、约翰·基泽、唐·托尔和唐·沃斯特,今年我要再谢他们一回。此外,我们如今还得谢谢美国责任险公司的汤姆·内尔尼,以及塞浦路斯公司的新掌门迈克尔·斯特恩斯。
In aggregate, our smaller insurance operations produced an excellent underwriting profit in 2000 while generating significant float ¾ just as they have done for more than a decade. If these companies were a single and separate operation, people would consider it an outstanding insurer. Because the companies instead reside in an enterprise as large as Berkshire, the world may not appreciate their accomplishments ¾ but I sure do. Last year I thanked Rod Eldred, John Kizer, Don Towle and Don Wurster, and I again do so. In addition, we now also owe thanks to Tom Nerney at U.S. Liability and Michael Stearns, the new head of Cypress.
各位或许会注意到,布拉德·金斯特勒——他曾任塞浦路斯的首席执行官,我以前夸过他——不在上面这份名单里了。那是因为我们要给辛辛那提的制服公司费希默兄弟换个新经理,便把布拉德调了过去。伯克希尔的经理人我们很少在企业间调动,但也许该多试试:布拉德在新岗位上照样打本垒打,跟他当年在塞浦路斯时一个样。
You may notice that Brad Kinstler, who was CEO of Cypress and whose praises Ive sung in the past, is no longer in the list above. Thats because we needed a new manager at Fechheimer Bros., our Cincinnati-based uniform company, and called on Brad. We seldom move Berkshire managers from one enterprise to another, but maybe we should try it more often: Brad is hitting home runs in his new job, just as he always did at Cypress.
GEICO(1-800-847-7536 或 GEICO.com)
GEICO (1-800-847-7536 or GEICO.com)
下面照例列出 GEICO 增长情况的表格。去年我兴冲冲地告诉各位,2000 年我们要加码广告开支,这笔额外投入是 GEICO 能做的最划算的投资。我错了:多花的钱并没有换来相应增多的咨询量。不仅如此,咨询转化为成交的比例还多年来头一回下滑。这几桩坏消息凑到一块,把我们每张保单的获客成本一下顶了上去。
We show below the usual table detailing GEICOs growth. Last year I enthusiastically told you that we would step up our expenditures on advertising in 2000 and that the added dollars were the best investment that GEICO could make. I was wrong: The extra money we spent did not produce a commensurate increase in inquiries. Additionally, the percentage of inquiries that we converted into sales fell for the first time in many years. These negative developments combined to produce a sharp increase in our per-policy acquisition cost.
年份
Years
新增车险保单(1)
New Auto Policies (1)
有效车险保单(1)
Auto Policies In-Force (1)
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
1993 346,882 2,011,055 1994 384,217 2,147,549 1995 443,539 2,310,037 1996 592,300 2,543,699 1997 868,430 2,949,439 1998 1,249,875 3,562,644 1999 1,648,095 4,328,900 2000 1,472,853 4,696,842
1993 346,882 2,011,055 1994 384,217 2,147,549 1995 443,539 2,310,037 1996 592,300 2,543,699 1997 868,430 2,949,439 1998 1,249,875 3,562,644 1999 1,648,095 4,328,900 2000 1,472,853 4,696,842
(1)仅限“自愿”保单,不含摊派风险等。
(1) "Voluntary" only; excludes assigned risks and the like.
为犯过的错懊恼是没意义的,但承认并剖析它们却大有裨益——尽管这在公司董事会里少之又少。在那里,查理和我几乎从没见过谁对一桩失败的决定做过坦诚的复盘,尤其是牵涉收购的决定。有个显眼的例外是《华盛顿邮报》公司:它总会在收购满三年后,一丝不苟、客观地回头审视。别处呢,成功被敲锣打鼓地宣扬,蠢事却要么无人过问,要么被自圆其说。
Agonizing over errors is a mistake. But acknowledging and analyzing them can be useful, though that practice is rare in corporate boardrooms. There, Charlie and I have almost never witnessed a candid post-mortem of a failed decision, particularly one involving an acquisition . A notable exception to this never-look-back approach is that of The Washington Post Company, which unfailingly and objectively reviews its acquisitions three years after they are made. Elsewhere, triumphs are trumpeted, but dumb decisions either get no follow-up or are rationalized.
这些昏招的财务后果,往往被一股脑塞进大笔的重组费用或减记里,再被轻描淡写地一句“非经常性”打发掉。管理层对此乐此不疲。这几年简直到了不带这类项目、盈利报告就不算完整的地步。可这些费用的来龙去脉,却从来没人去深究。一说到公司犯下的大错,首席执行官们便搬出“无原罪受孕”那套说辞。
The financial consequences of these boners are regularly dumped into massive restructuring charges or write-offs that are casually waved off as "nonrecurring." Managements just love these. Indeed, in recent years it has seemed that no earnings statement is complete without them. The origins of these charges, though, are never explored. When it comes to corporate blunders, CEOs invoke the concept of the Virgin Birth.
回头再看 GEICO:去年我们获取新业务的成本上升,至少有四个因素说得通,而且多半都或多或少起了作用。
To get back to our examination of GEICO: There are at least four factors that could account for the increased costs we experienced in obtaining new business last year, and all probably contributed in some manner.
第一,广告上我们把“频次”压得太狠,某些媒介上恐怕过了头。我们一向清楚,在任何一种媒介上一味加码投放,终归会回报递减。同一个有线频道一小时里的第三条广告,效果就是赶不上第一条。
First, in our advertising we have pushed "frequency" very hard, and we probably overstepped in certain media. Weve always known that increasing the number of messages through any medium would eventually produce diminishing returns. The third ad in an hour on a given cable channel is simply not going to be as effective as the first.
第二,容易摘的果子,我们大概已经摘得差不多了。人们愿不愿意跟直销保险打交道,个体差异显然很大:确实,有一部分美国人——尤其是上了年纪的——对任何形式的直接购买都心存抵触。不过随着年头推移,这份抵触终会消退。新一代人有新一代的习惯,会发现直接买车险省下的钱实在诱人得没法忽视。
Second, we may have already picked much of the low-hanging fruit. Clearly, the willingness to do business with a direct marketer of insurance varies widely among individuals: Indeed, some percentage of Americans ¾ particularly older ones ¾ are reluctant to make direct purchases of any kind. Over the years, however, this reluctance will ebb. A new generation with new habits will find the savings from direct purchase of their auto insurance too compelling to ignore.
另一个必定拉低咨询转化率的因素,是 GEICO 收紧了承保标准。这一年里,理赔的频次和金额都在攀升,某些地区的费率变得不敷成本,有些地方还差得很远。碰上这些情形,我们不得不勒紧承保标准。这一勒紧,加上年内多次上调费率,让我们的报价对一些潜在客户没那么有吸引力了。
Another factor that surely decreased the conversion of inquiries into sales was stricter underwriting by GEICO. Both the frequency and severity of losses increased during the year, and rates in certain areas became inadequate, in some cases substantially so. In these instances, we necessarily tightened our underwriting standards. This tightening, as well as the many rate increases we put in during the year, made our offerings less attractive to some prospects.
得强调的是,仍有很高比例的来电者,跟我们投保能省下钱。不过也能理解,有些人为一年省 200 美元愿意换保险,为省 50 美元就不肯换了。所以,哪怕我们仍开出最实惠的方案,只要上调费率、把价格拉得离对手更近,就会拉低我们的成交率。
A high percentage of callers, it should be emphasized, can still save money by insuring with us. Understandably, however, some prospects will switch to save $200 per year but will not switch to save $50. Therefore, rate increases that bring our prices closer to those of our competitors will hurt our acceptance rate, even when we continue to offer the best deal.
最后,竞争格局至少在一个重要方面发生了变化:州立农业保险(State Farm)——遥遥领先的个人车险巨头,市占率约 19%——提价一直非常缓慢。然而,它的成本显然正与业内其他公司同步攀升。结果是,州立农业去年车险业务的承保亏损(含返还给保单持有人的部分)达到保费的 18%,而 GEICO 为 4%。我们的亏损导致浮存金成本为 6.1%,这一结果并不令人满意。(事实上,在 GEICO,我们期望浮存金长期来看是免费的。)但我们估计,州立农业 2000 年的浮存金成本约为 23%。行业内最大的玩家愿意承受这样的成本,使其他参与者的经营变得相当困难。
Finally, the competitive picture changed in at least one important respect: State Farm ¾ by far the largest personal auto insurer, with about 19% of the market ¾ has been very slow to raise prices. Its costs, however, are clearly increasing right along with those of the rest of the industry. Consequently, State Farm had an underwriting loss last year from auto insurance (including rebates to policyholders) of 18% of premiums, compared to 4% at GEICO. Our loss produced a float cost for us of 6.1%, an unsatisfactory result. (Indeed, at GEICO we expect float, over time, to be free.) But we estimate that State Farms float cost in 2000 was about 23%. The willingness of the largest player in the industry to tolerate such a cost makes the economics difficult for other participants.
这并不妨碍州立农业成为美国最了不起的商业故事之一。我一直主张商学院应研究这家公司,因为它取得了非凡的成功,而它所走的道路,在许多方面都与这些学府奉为圭臬的教条背道而驰。研究反面证据是一项极为有益的活动,尽管在知识的殿堂里,它并不总是受到热烈欢迎。
That does not take away from the fact that State Farm is one of Americas greatest business stories. Ive urged that the company be studied at business schools because it has achieved fabulous success while following a path that in many ways defies the dogma of those institutions. Studying counter-evidence is a highly useful activity, though not one always greeted with enthusiasm at citadels of learning.
州立农业保险于 1922 年由一位 45 岁、半退休的伊利诺伊州农民创立,旨在与那些老牌保险公司竞争——它们在纽约、费城和哈特福德,是些傲慢的机构,在资本、声誉和分销渠道上拥有压倒性优势。由于州立农业是一家互助公司,其董事会成员和经理人不能成为所有者,且在高速增长的岁月里,它无法进入资本市场。同样,这家公司从未有过股票期权或丰厚的薪酬——而许多人认为,这些正是一家美国企业若要吸引能干的经理人并蓬勃发展所不可或缺的。
State Farm was launched in 1922, by a 45-year-old, semi-retired Illinois farmer, to compete with long-established insurers ¾ haughty institutions in New York, Philadelphia and Hartford ¾ that possessed overwhelming advantages in capital, reputation, and distribution. Because State Farm is a mutual company, its board members and managers could not be owners, and it had no access to capital markets during its years of fast growth. Similarly, the business never had the stock options or lavish salaries that many people think vital if an American enterprise is to attract able managers and thrive.
然而,最终州立农业保险令所有竞争对手黯然失色。事实上,到 1999 年,该公司积累的有形净资产已超过除四家美国企业之外的所有公司。若想了解这一切是如何发生的,去找一本《来自默纳的农夫》(The Farmer from Merna)来读。
In the end, however, State Farm eclipsed all its competitors. In fact, by 1999 the company had amassed a tangible net worth exceeding that of all but four American businesses. If you want to read how this happened, get a copy of The Farmer from Merna .
然而,尽管州立农业实力雄厚,GEICO 的商业模式却要好得多,其运营成本要低得多。而且,当一家公司销售的产品具有类似大宗商品的经济特性时,成为低成本生产者至关重要。GEICO 的这一持久竞争优势——早在 1951 年,当时 20 岁的我作为一名学生初次迷恋上它的股票时,它便已具备——正是其随着时间的推移,必将在显著扩大市场份额的同时,获得丰厚利润的原因。不过,如果州立农业选择继续承受其当前正在遭受的承保亏损,我们的增长将是缓慢的。
Despite State Farms strengths, however, GEICO has much the better business model, one that embodies significantly lower operating costs. And, when a company is selling a product with commodity-like economic characteristics, being the low-cost producer is all-important. This enduring competitive advantage of GEICO ¾ one it possessed in 1951 when, as a 20-year-old student, I first became enamored with its stock ¾ is the reason that over time it will inevitably increase its market share significantly while simultaneously achieving excellent profits. Our growth will be slow, however, if State Farm elects to continue bearing the underwriting losses that it is now suffering.
GEICO 的首席执行官托尼·奈斯利(Tony Nicely),一如既往是所有者梦寐以求的管理者。他做的每件事都合情合理。他从不一厢情愿,也不会像许多经理人那样,在意外发生时歪曲现实。在 2000 年期间,托尼削减了那些不具成本效益的广告,如果 2001 年需要,他还会继续削减(尽管我们将始终保持庞大的媒体曝光量)。在需要的地方,托尼也已积极申报提价。他每天查看赔付报告,从不落后于形势。借用竞争对手的一句话:有托尼在,我们尽可安心。
Tony Nicely, GEICOs CEO, remains an owners dream. Everything he does makes sense. He never engages in wishful thinking or otherwise distorts reality, as so many managers do when the unexpected happens. As 2000 unfolded, Tony cut back on advertising that was not cost-effective, and he will continue to do that in 2001 if cutbacks are called for (though we will always maintain a massive media presence). Tony has also aggressively filed for price increases where we need them. He looks at the loss reports every day and is never behind the curve. To steal a line from a competitor, we are in good hands with Tony.
我曾向诸位介绍过 GEICO 的利润分享安排,它只关注两个变量——保单数量的增长和成熟业务的承保结果。尽管遭遇了 2000 年的逆风,我们的业绩仍产生了 8.8% 的利润分享,金额达 4,070 万美元。
Ive told you about our profit-sharing arrangement at GEICO that targets only two variables ¾ growth in policies and the underwriting results of seasoned business. Despite the headwinds of 2000, we still had a performance that produced an 8.8% profit-sharing payment, amounting to $40.7 million.
GEICO 将是伯克希尔未来极其重要的一部分。凭借其极低的运营成本,它为数以百万计的美国人提供了一条最便宜的途径,来购买一件他们不得不买的高价商品。随后,公司又将这种实惠与在各项独立调查中始终名列前茅的服务相结合。这样的组合,注定会带来增长和盈利。
GEICO will be a huge part of Berkshires future. Because of its rock-bottom operating costs, it offers a great many Americans the cheapest way to purchase a high-ticket product that they must buy. The company then couples this bargain with service that consistently ranks high in independent surveys. Thats a combination inevitably producing growth and profitability.
就在过去几年里,已有远比以往多得多的司机,学会了把 GEICO 品牌与节省保费联系起来。我们会锲而不舍地灌输这一主题,直到所有美国人都意识到我们提供的价值。
In just the last few years, far more drivers have learned to associate the GEICO brand with saving money on their insurance. We will pound that theme relentlessly until all Americans are aware of the value that we offer.
投资
Investments
以下我们列出普通股投资。截至 2000 年底市值超过 10 亿美元的持仓,逐项列明。
Below we present our common stock investments. Those that had a market value of more than $1 billion at the end of 2000 are itemized.
12/31/00
12/31/00
股数
Shares
公司
Company
成本
Cost
市值
Market
(单位:百万美元)
(dollars in millions)
151,610,700
151,610,700
美国运通公司
American Express Company
$1,470 $ 8,329 200,000,000
$1,470 $ 8,329 200,000,000
可口可乐公司
The Coca-Cola Company
1,299 12,188 96,000,000
1,299 12,188 96,000,000
吉列公司
The Gillette Company
600 3,468 1,727,765
600 3,468 1,727,765
《华盛顿邮报》公司
The Washington Post Company
11 1,066 55,071,380
11 1,066 55,071,380
富国银行
Wells Fargo & Company
319 3,067
319 3,067
其他
Others
6,703 9,501
6,703 9,501
普通股合计
Total Common Stocks
$10,402 $37,619
$10,402 $37,619
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2000 年,我们几乎清空了手里的房地美和房利美,在几家中等规模的公司里建立了 15% 的持股,买进了极少数发行人的高收益债(数量极少——这一类被叫作垃圾债,不是没缘由的),还增持了高评级的抵押支持证券。我们眼下的持仓里没有“便宜货”:手里这些东西,我们尚且满意,却远谈不上兴奋。
In 2000, we sold nearly all of our Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae shares, established 15% positions in several mid-sized companies, bought the high-yield bonds of a few issuers (very few ¾ the category is not labeled junk without reason) and added to our holdings of high-grade, mortgage-backed securities. There are no "bargains" among our current holdings: Were content with what we own but far from excited by it.
很多人以为,配置资本时伯克希尔的首选是可流通证券,其实不然:自 1983 年首次公布我们的经济原则以来,我们就一直言明,比起买股票,我们更愿意买下整门生意。(见第 60 页第 4 条。)这份偏爱有一个个人原因——我喜欢跟我们的经理人共事。他们素质高、有才干、又忠诚。老实讲,我觉得他们的经营行事,比许多上市公司更理性、更有主人翁意识。
Many people assume that marketable securities are Berkshires first choice when allocating capital, but thats not true: Ever since we first published our economic principles in 1983, we have consistently stated that we would rather purchase businesses than stocks. (See number 4 on page 60.) One reason for that preference is personal, in that I love working with our managers. They are high-grade, talented and loyal. And, frankly, I find their business behavior to be more rational and owner-oriented than that prevailing at many public companies.
但这份偏爱背后,还有一个有力的财务缘由,那就是税。税法使得伯克希尔持有一门生意 80% 以上的股权,按比例算,比持有较小份额划算得多。当一家我们全资拥有的公司税后挣了 100 万美元,这笔钱全归我们。倘若这 100 万上缴给伯克希尔,我们不必为这笔股息缴税;倘若利润留在公司,日后我们再把这家子公司卖掉——在伯克希尔可不大会发生!——卖价比当初买价高出 100 万美元,我们也不必缴资本利得税。这是因为,出售时我们的“计税成本”既含当初买这门生意的价钱,也含它此后留存的全部盈利。
But theres also a powerful financial reason behind the preference, and that has to do with taxes. The tax code makes Berkshires owning 80% or more of a business far more profitable for us, proportionately, than our owning a smaller share. When a company we own all of earns $1 million after tax, the entire amount inures to our benefit. If the $1 million is upstreamed to Berkshire, we owe no tax on the dividend. And, if the earnings are retained and we were to sell the subsidiary ¾ not likely at Berkshire! ¾ for $1 million more than we paid for it, we would owe no capital gains tax. Thats because our "tax cost" upon sale would include both what we paid for the business and all earnings it subsequently retained.
再拿我们持有一只可流通证券的情形来对照。假如我们持有一家税后利润 1,000 万美元的公司 10% 的股权,那分到手的 100 万美元盈利,还得再缴一道州税和联邦税:(1)若以股息发放给我们,约 14 万美元(多数股息我们的税率是 14%);(2)若这 100 万留存下来、日后我们靠资本利得把它变现,则不低于 35 万美元(资本利得税率一般在 35% 上下,有时逼近 40%)。我们可以先不实现收益,把那 35 万美元的税往后拖,但终究是要缴的。说白了,当我们靠持股拥有一门生意的一部分时,政府当了我们两回“合伙人”;而当我们持有至少 80% 时,只当一回。
Contrast that situation to what happens when we own an investment in a marketable security. There, if we own a 10% stake in a business earning $10 million after tax, our $1 million share of the earnings is subject to additional state and federal taxes of (1) about $140,000 if it is distributed to us (our tax rate on most dividends is 14%); or (2) no less than $350,000 if the $1 million is retained and subsequently captured by us in the form of a capital gain (on which our tax rate is usually about 35%, though it sometimes approaches 40%). We may defer paying the $350,000 by not immediately realizing our gain, but eventually we must pay the tax. In effect, the government is our "partner" twice when we own part of a business through a stock investment, but only once when we own at least 80%.
撇开税这一层,我们给股票和生意估值用的是同一道公式。事实上,一切为求财而买入的资产,其估值公式自公元前 600 年前后由一位绝顶聪明的人首次提出以来,就从没变过(尽管他当时还没聪明到知道那是公元前 600 年)。
Leaving aside tax factors, the formula we use for evaluating stocks and businesses is identical. Indeed, the formula for valuing all assets that are purchased for financial gain has been unchanged since it was first laid out by a very smart man in about 600 B.C. (though he wasnt smart enough to know it was 600 B.C.).
这位先知就是伊索,他那句虽不完整却历久弥新的投资箴言是:“双鸟在林,不如一鸟在手。”要把这条原则填实,你只需回答三个问题:你有多大把握,林子里确实有鸟?它们几时飞出,又有几只?无风险利率是多少(我们把它看作长期美国国债的收益率)?答得上这三问,你就算得出那片林子最高值多少钱——以及手里现有的鸟,最多该拿出几只去换它。当然,别真把鸟当鸟,要把它当成钱。
The oracle was Aesop and his enduring, though somewhat incomplete, investment insight was "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush." To flesh out this principle, you must answer only three questions. How certain are you that there are indeed birds in the bush? When will they emerge and how many will there be? What is the risk-free interest rate (which we consider to be the yield on long-term U.S. bonds)? If you can answer these three questions, you will know the maximum value of the bush ¾ and the maximum number of the birds you now possess that should be offered for it. And, of course, dont literally think birds. Think dollars.
伊索的这条投资定律,如此展开、换算成钱之后,便是颠扑不破的。它适用于农场的投入、石油权益、债券、股票、彩票,也适用于制造厂。无论是蒸汽机问世、电力驯服,还是汽车诞生,都没能把这道公式改动分毫——互联网也一样。只要把正确的数字填进去,你就能给天底下一切可能的资本用途,按吸引力排个座次。
Aesops investment axiom, thus expanded and converted into dollars, is immutable. It applies to outlays for farms, oil royalties, bonds, stocks, lottery tickets, and manufacturing plants. And neither the advent of the steam engine, the harnessing of electricity nor the creation of the automobile changed the formula one iota ¾ nor will the Internet. Just insert the correct numbers, and you can rank the attractiveness of all possible uses of capital throughout the universe.
股息率、市盈率、市净率乃至增长率这些常用尺子,本身跟估值没关系——除非它们能透露现金进出这门生意的规模和时点。事实上,增长甚至会毁掉价值:倘若一个项目或企业头几年要吞进的现金,超过了这些资产日后所产现金的折现值,那增长就是在减值。市场评论员和投资经理们张口就把“成长”和“价值”说成两种对立的投资流派,露的是无知,不是老练。增长不过是价值等式里的一个变量——通常是加分,偶尔也是减分。
Common yardsticks such as dividend yield, the ratio of price to earnings or to book value, and even growth rates have nothing to do with valuation except to the extent they provide clues to the amount and timing of cash flows into and from the business. Indeed, growth can destroy value if it requires cash inputs in the early years of a project or enterprise that exceed the discounted value of the cash that those assets will generate in later years. Market commentators and investment managers who glibly refer to "growth" and "value" styles as contrasting approaches to investment are displaying their ignorance, not their sophistication. Growth is simply a component ¾ usually a plus, sometimes a minus ¾ in the value equation.
可惜,伊索的公式和第三个变量——利率——虽说简单,给另外两个变量填数却是件难事。用一个精确的数字,其实是犯傻;更好的办法是拿一段区间来算。
Alas, though Aesops proposition and the third variable ¾ that is, interest rates ¾ are simple, plugging in numbers for the other two variables is a difficult task. Using precise numbers is, in fact, foolish; working with a range of possibilities is the better approach.
多数时候,这个区间必须宽到得不出任何有用的结论。不过,偶尔哪怕对未来能飞出多少鸟的估算极为保守,也会发现报价相对价值低得惊人。(不妨把这种现象称为 IBT——无效灌木理论。)确实,投资者要对商业经济有大致了解,也要有能力独立思考,才能得出站得住脚的正面结论。但投资者既不需要绝顶聪明,也不需要石破天惊的洞见。
Usually, the range must be so wide that no useful conclusion can be reached. Occasionally, though, even very conservative estimates about the future emergence of birds reveal that the price quoted is startlingly low in relation to value. (Lets call this phenomenon the IBT ¾ Inefficient Bush Theory.) To be sure, an investor needs some general understanding of business economics as well as the ability to think independently to reach a well-founded positive conclusion. But the investor does not need brilliance nor blinding insights.
另一个极端是,有太多时候,即便最出色的投资者也无法对将要飞出的鸟形成确信——哪怕把估算区间放得极宽也不行。这种不确定在新企业和快速变化的行业接受审视时经常出现。在此类情形中,任何资本投入都必须贴上投机的标签。
At the other extreme, there are many times when the most brilliant of investors cant muster a conviction about the birds to emerge, not even when a very broad range of estimates is employed. This kind of uncertainty frequently occurs when new businesses and rapidly changing industries are under examination. In cases of this sort, any capital commitment must be labeled speculative.
那么,投机——聚焦点不是一项资产会产出什么,而是下一个买家愿意付多少钱——既不违法、不违背道德,也没有背离美国精神。但这不是查理和我愿意参与的游戏。我们两手空空来赴宴,凭什么指望能带点什么回家?
Now, speculation ¾ in which the focus is not on what an asset will produce but rather on what the next fellow will pay for it ¾ is neither illegal, immoral nor un-American. But it is not a game in which Charlie and I wish to play. We bring nothing to the party, so why should we expect to take anything home?
投资与投机的界线,从来都不明亮清晰,当大多数市场参与者近期都尝过甜头后,它就变得更加模糊。没什么比大笔不费力赚来的钱更能钝化理性。经历过那种令人飘飘然的体验后,通常清醒理智的人也会滑向类似于灰姑娘在舞会上的行为。他们知道,在宴会上逗留过久——也就是继续去投机那些估值相对其未来可能产生的现金高得离谱的公司——终将迎来南瓜和老鼠。但他们还是不甘心错过这场盛大派对的哪怕一分钟。于是,这些飘飘然的参与者全都计划在午夜前几秒才离开。不过有个问题:他们跳舞的房间,钟面上没有指针。
The line separating investment and speculation, which is never bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants have recently enjoyed triumphs. Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball. They know that overstaying the festivities ¾ that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future ¾ will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. Theres a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.
去年,我们对当时盛行的那股亢奋——是的,非理性亢奋——发表了评论,并指出投资者的预期已膨胀到可能回报的数倍。一个证据来自潘恩韦伯–盖洛普 1999 年 12 月对投资者所做的一项调查,该调查问受访者:未来十年投资者每年能预期实现多少回报。他们的答案平均为 19%。那毫无疑问是非理性的预期:就整个美国商界而言,2009 年的灌木丛里绝不可能有足够多的鸟来兑现这样的回报。
Last year, we commented on the exuberance ¾ and, yes, it was irrational ¾ that prevailed, noting that investor expectations had grown to be several multiples of probable returns. One piece of evidence came from a Paine Webber-Gallup survey of investors conducted in December 1999, in which the participants were asked their opinion about the annual returns investors could expect to realize over the decade ahead. Their answers averaged 19%. That, for sure, was an irrational expectation: For American business as a whole, there couldnt possibly be enough birds in the 2009 bush to deliver such a return.
更非理性得多的是,当时市场参与者给那些几乎注定最终价值微薄甚至一文不值的生意贴上了巨大估值。然而,投资者被飙升的股价所迷惑,对其它一切视而不见,蜂拥扑进这类企业。就好似某种病毒,在投资专业人士和业余散户中疯狂蔓延,诱发了幻觉——在幻觉中,某些板块里股票的价值与支撑它们的生意的价值脱了钩。
Far more irrational still were the huge valuations that market participants were then putting on businesses almost certain to end up being of modest or no value. Yet investors, mesmerized by soaring stock prices and ignoring all else, piled into these enterprises. It was as if some virus, racing wildly among investment professionals as well as amateurs, induced hallucinations in which the values of stocks in certain sectors became decoupled from the values of the businesses that underlay them.
这副超现实景象,伴随着大量关于“价值创造”的空泛言论。我们坦然承认,过去十年中,新兴或年轻企业确实创造出了极为可观的真价值,而且未来还会有更多。但任何一门生意,只要在其整个存续期间亏损,那不管其间估值冲到多高,都是在毁灭价值,而非创造价值。
This surreal scene was accompanied by much loose talk about "value creation." We readily acknowledge that there has been a huge amount of true value created in the past decade by new or young businesses, and that there is much more to come. But value is destroyed, not created, by any business that loses money over its lifetime, no matter how high its interim valuation may get.
这类情形中真正发生的是财富转移,而且往往规模巨大。近年来,推销者厚颜无耻地兜售不长鸟的灌木丛,把数十亿美元从公众的口袋搬进了自己的腰包(以及他们朋友和合伙人的腰包)。事实是,一个泡沫市场催生了一批泡沫公司——这类实体在设计时更多考虑的是从投资者身上赚钱,而不是为投资者赚钱。太多时候,一家公司发起人的首要目标就是 IPO,而不是利润。说到底,这些公司的“商业模式”就是老式连环信,许多贪图手续费的投行家则热心地充当了邮差。
What actually occurs in these cases is wealth transfer , often on a massive scale. By shamelessly merchandising birdless bushes, promoters have in recent years moved billions of dollars from the pockets of the public to their own purses (and to those of their friends and associates). The fact is that a bubble market has allowed the creation of bubble companies, entities designed more with an eye to making money off investors rather than for them. Too often, an IPO, not profits, was the primary goal of a companys promoters. At bottom, the "business model" for these companies has been the old-fashioned chain letter, for which many fee-hungry investment bankers acted as eager postmen.
但每一个泡沫都有一根针在暗中守候。当两者最终相遇,新一波投资者就学到了一些极老的经验:第一,华尔街那个圈子里——质量管控并不被看重——只要是投资者肯买的,他们什么都肯卖。第二,投机在看似最容易的时候最危险。
But a pin lies in wait for every bubble. And when the two eventually meet, a new wave of investors learns some very old lessons: First, many in Wall Street ¾ a community in which quality control is not prized ¾ will sell investors anything they will buy. Second, speculation is most dangerous when it looks easiest.
在伯克希尔,我们不会试图从一片未经检验的企业汪洋中挑出寥寥几个赢家。我们没那个本事,自己也知道。相反,我们尝试把伊索那道 2,600 年前的公式,应用到我们有合理信心的机会上——也就是对灌木丛里有多少只鸟、它们何时飞出有合理把握(我的孙子辈多半会把这句格言更新为“敞篷车里一个姑娘,抵得上电话簿里五个”)。显然,我们永远无法精确预测企业现金流入流出的时间,也无法精确预测其金额。因此,我们尽量让估算保持保守,并专注于行业意外不太可能对股东造成重创的领域。即便如此,我们仍会犯很多错误:别忘了,曾自以为看懂了交易印花、纺织、制鞋和二流百货公司未来经济前景的,正是在下。
At Berkshire, we make no attempt to pick the few winners that will emerge from an ocean of unproven enterprises. Were not smart enough to do that, and we know it. Instead, we try to apply Aesops 2,600-year-old equation to opportunities in which we have reasonable confidence as to how many birds are in the bush and when they will emerge (a formulation that my grandsons would probably update to "A girl in a convertible is worth five in the phonebook."). Obviously, we can never precisely predict the timing of cash flows in and out of a business or their exact amount. We try, therefore, to keep our estimates conservative and to focus on industries where business surprises are unlikely to wreak havoc on owners. Even so, we make many mistakes: Im the fellow, remember, who thought he understood the future economics of trading stamps, textiles, shoes and second-tier department stores.
近来,最有前途的“灌木丛”,是针对整家企业进行协商的交易,这令我们感到高兴。不过,诸位应当清楚,这些收购带给我们的最多也只是合理的回报。肥美的协商交易果实,只有在资本市场严重受限、整个商业世界一片悲观时才能指望。我们眼下离那个节点差着整整 180 度。
Lately, the most promising "bushes" have been negotiated transactions for entire businesses, and that pleases us. You should clearly understand, however, that these acquisitions will at best provide us only reasonable returns. Really juicy results from negotiated deals can be anticipated only when capital markets are severely constrained and the whole business world is pessimistic. We are 180 degrees from that point.
报告盈利的来源
Sources of Reported Earnings
下表列示伯克希尔报告盈利的主要来源。在本次列报中,购买法会计调整不分配至其对应的具体业务,而是汇总并单独列示。这一处理方式让诸位可以看到,这些业务倘若当初未被我们收购,其盈利原本会如何报告。基于第 65 页讨论的理由,在我们看来,这一列报方式对投资者和管理者而言,比采用公认会计原则(GAAP)更有用——GAAP 要求将收购溢价逐项业务进行摊销。当然,我们在表中列示的净利润合计,与我们经审计财务报表中的 GAAP 总额完全一致。
The table that follows shows the main sources of Berkshire's reported earnings. In this presentation, purchase-accounting adjustments are not assigned to the specific businesses to which they apply, but are instead aggregated and shown separately. This procedure lets you view the earnings of our businesses as they would have been reported had we not purchased them. For the reasons discussed on page 65, this form of presentation seems to us to be more useful to investors and managers than one utilizing generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), which require purchase-premiums to be charged off business-by-business. The total net earnings we show in the table are, of course, identical to the GAAP total in our audited financial statements.
(单位:百万美元)
(in millions)
税前盈利
Pre-Tax Earnings
伯克希尔应占净利(税后及扣除少数股东权益后)
Berkshire's Share of Net Earnings (after taxes and minority interests)
2000 1999 2000 1999
2000 1999 2000 1999
经营利润
Operating Earnings:
保险板块
Insurance Group:
承保——再保险
Underwriting ¾ Reinsurance
$(1,399) $(1,440) $(899) $(927)
$(1,399) $(1,440) $(899) $(927)
承保——GEICO
Underwriting ¾ GEICO
(224) 24 (146) 16
(224) 24 (146) 16
承保——其他直接险
Underwriting ¾ Other Primary
38 22 24 14
38 22 24 14
净投资收益
Net Investment Income
2,747 2,482 1,929 1,764
2,747 2,482 1,929 1,764
金融及金融产品业务
Finance and Financial Products Business
556 125 360 86
556 125 360 86
航空服务
Flight Services
213 225 126 132
213 225 126 132
中美能源(持股 76%)
MidAmerican Energy (76% owned)
197
197
--
--
109
109
--
--
零售业务
Retail Operations
175 130 104 77
175 130 104 77
斯科特-费泽(不含金融业务)
Scott Fetzer (excluding finance operation)
122 147 80 92
122 147 80 92
其他业务
Other Businesses
225 210 134 131
225 210 134 131
购买法会计调整
Purchase-Accounting Adjustments
(881) (739) (843) (648)
(881) (739) (843) (648)
公司利息支出
Corporate Interest Expense
(92) (109) (61) (70)
(92) (109) (61) (70)
股东指定捐款
Shareholder-Designated Contributions
(17) (17) (11) (11)
(17) (17) (11) (11)
其他
Other
39 25 30 15
39 25 30 15
经营利润
Operating Earnings
1,699 1,085 936 671
1,699 1,085 936 671
投资的资本利得
Capital Gains from Investments
3,955 1,365 2,392 886
3,955 1,365 2,392 886
各实体总盈利
Total Earnings ¾ All Entities
$5,654 $2,450 $3,328 $1,557
$5,654 $2,450 $3,328 $1,557
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去年,我们旗下多数制造、零售和服务业务,表现至少还算过得去。
Most of our manufacturing, retailing and service businesses did at least reasonably well last year.
例外是制鞋业务,尤其是德克斯特。总体而言,在我们的鞋厂里,硬要把大部分生产留在国内工厂,让我们付出了惨重代价。2001 年也是很不好过的一年,我们正大刀阔斧地改造经营方式。
The exception was shoes, particularly at Dexter. In our shoe businesses generally, our attempt to keep the bulk of our production in domestic factories has cost us dearly. We face another very tough year in 2001 also, as we make significant changes in how we do business.
我 1993 年为德克斯特出的那个价,明摆着是个错。更糟的是,我还用伯克希尔的股票去付账,把这个错放大了不知多少倍。去年,为了认这个错,我们把德克斯特那笔交易余下的会计商誉全数冲销了。日后我们或许能在德克斯特重新挣回一些经济商誉,但眼下这块,明明白白是零。
I clearly made a mistake in paying what I did for Dexter in 1993. Furthermore, I compounded that mistake in a huge way by using Berkshire shares in payment. Last year, to recognize my error, we charged off all the remaining accounting goodwill that was attributable to the Dexter transaction. We may regain some economic goodwill at Dexter in the future, but we clearly have none at present.
我们几家鞋企的经理人,无论论做生意还是论做人,都是一流的。他们拼了命地干着一份艰难——常常还痛苦得要命——的活,哪怕个人的财务状况根本用不着他们这么拼。他们值得我的敬佩和感谢。
The managers of our shoe businesses are first-class from both a business and human perspective. They are working very hard at a tough ¾ and often terribly painful ¾ job, even though their personal financial circumstances dont require them to do so. They have my admiration and thanks.
说点开心的:在航空服务的两块业务上,我们仍是无可争议的头名——FlightSafety(FSI)的飞行员培训,和 Executive Jet(EJA)的公务机分时共享。这两家公司都由各自了不起的创始人执掌。
On a more pleasant note, we continue to be the undisputed leader in two branches of Aircraft Services ¾ pilot training at FlightSafety (FSI) and fractional ownership of business jets at Executive Jet (EJA). Both companies are run by their remarkable founders.
FSI 的 Al Ueltschi 如今 83 岁,仍开着满油门运转。我虽不待见拆股,却打算等他满 100 岁时,把他的岁数来个 1 拆 2。(这招若灵,猜猜下一个是谁?)
Al Ueltschi at FSI is now 83 and continues to operate at full throttle. Though I am not a fan of stock splits, I am planning to split Als age 2-for-1 when he hits 100. (If it works, guess whos next.)
2000 年,我们在飞行模拟器上花了 2.72 亿美元,今年也要花上差不多的数。谁若以为每年那笔折旧不是真金白银的成本——它跟工资、原料一样实打实——就该去模拟器厂里实习一回。年年我们花掉相当于折旧那么多的钱,仅仅是为了原地站住;想要增长,还得再往里砸。而 FSI 的增长,一眼望去还看不到头。
We spent $272 million on flight simulators in 2000, and well spend a similar amount this year. Anyone who thinks that the annual charges for depreciation dont reflect a real cost ¾ every bit as real as payroll or raw materials ¾ should get an internship at a simulator company. Every year we spend amounts equal to our depreciation charge simply to stay in the same economic place ¾ and then spend additional sums to grow. And growth is in prospect for FSI as far as the eye can see.
等着 EJA(它的分时共享计划叫 NetJets®)的,是更快的增长。这门生意背后的发动机是 Rich Santulli。
Even faster growth awaits EJA (whose fractional-ownership program is called NetJets®). Rich Santulli is the dynamo behind this business.
去年我告诉过你,EJA 来自月度管理费和按小时计费的经常性收入,1999 年增长了 46%;2000 年这个增速是 49%。我还说过,这是门利润率很薄的生意,能活下来的没几家。去年 EJA 的利润率确实很薄,一部分是因为我们在欧洲拓展业务下了大本钱。
Last year I told you that EJAs recurring revenue from monthly management fees and hourly usage grew by 46% in 1999. In 2000 the growth was 49%. I also told you that this was a low-margin business, in which survivors will be few. Margins were indeed slim at EJA last year, in part because of the major costs we are incurring in developing our business in Europe.
不管花多少钱,你尽可放心,EJA 在安全上的投入要多少给多少。无论如何我们都会照此办理,这自不待言;不过这里头也有点私心:我、我太太、我的孩子、我的姐妹、我 94 岁的姑妈、除一人之外的全体董事,还有至少九位伯克希尔的经理人,都常坐 NetJets 的飞机。冲着机上这些乘客,我对 Rich 坚持给飞行员做异乎寻常之多的训练(平均一年 23 天)举双手赞成。此外,我们的飞行员一年飞上 800 来个小时,好把本事练扎实。还有,每人只飞一种机型,这样一来,机组就不必在驾驶舱和飞行特性各不相同的飞机之间来回切换。
Regardless of the cost, you can be sure that EJAs spending on safety will be whatever is needed. Obviously, we would follow this policy under any circumstances, but theres some self-interest here as well: I, my wife, my children, my sisters, my 94-year-old aunt, all but one of our directors, and at least nine Berkshire managers regularly fly in the NetJets program. Given that cargo, I applaud Richs insistence on unusually high amounts of pilot training (an average of 23 days a year). In addition, our pilots cement their skills by flying 800 or so hours a year. Finally, each flies only one model of aircraft, which means our crews do no switching around among planes with different cockpit and flight characteristics.
EJA 的生意,始终受制于新飞机能不能供得上。即便如此,2001 年我们的客户仍将接收 50 多架新公务机,占全球产量的 7%。论飞机数量、服务品质和安全标准,我们有把握继续稳坐分时共享领域的全球头把交椅。
EJAs business continues to be constrained by the availability of new aircraft. Still, our customers will take delivery of more than 50 new jets in 2001, 7% of world output. We are confident we will remain the world leader in fractional ownership, in respect to number of planes flying, quality of service, and standards of safety.
- * * * * * * * * *
- * * * * * * * * *
各项业务的更多信息见第 42—58 页,那里还能查到按 GAAP 口径报出的分部盈利。此外,第 67—73 页,我们把伯克希尔的财务数据按非 GAAP 口径重排成四个分部,这个排法跟查理和我心里琢磨公司的方式一致。
Additional information about our various businesses is given on pages 42-58, where you will also find our segment earnings reported on a GAAP basis. In addition, on pages 67-73, we have rearranged Berkshires financial data into four segments on a non-GAAP basis, a presentation that corresponds to the way Charlie and I think about the company.
透视盈余
Look-Through Earnings
账面盈利并不足以衡量伯克希尔的经济进展,部分原因在于,第 15 页表格中的数字仅包含我们从被投资公司收到的股息——而这些股息通常只占我们按持股比例应占盈利的一小部分。不过,为了描绘一幅比账面盈利更贴近伯克希尔经济实况的图景,我们采用了“透视盈余”这一概念。按我们的计算方式,它由以下三部分组成:(1)第 15 页列报的经营利润;加上(2)我们按持股比例享有的主要被投资公司留存经营利润——这部分利润在 GAAP 下并未计入我们的当期利润;减去(3)一笔备抵税额:即假设这些被投资公司将留存收益实际派发给我们,伯克希尔本应缴纳的税款。在计算此处“经营利润”时,我们排除了收购法会计调整、资本利得以及其他重大非经常性项目。
Reported earnings are an inadequate measure of economic progress at Berkshire, in part because the numbers shown in the table on page 15 include only the dividends we receive from investees ¾ though these dividends typically represent only a small fraction of the earnings attributable to our ownership. To depict something closer to economic reality at Berkshire than reported earnings, though, we employ the concept of "look-through" earnings. As we calculate these, they consist of: (1) the operating earnings reported on page 15; plus; (2) our share of the retained operating earnings of major investees that, under GAAP accounting, are not reflected in our profits, less; (3) an allowance for the tax that would be paid by Berkshire if these retained earnings of investees had instead been distributed to us. When tabulating "operating earnings" here, we exclude purchase-accounting adjustments as well as capital gains and other major non-recurring items.
下表列示了我们 2000 年的透视盈余;不过我必须提醒各位,这些数字只能视为近似值,因为其中包含诸多主观判断。(这些被投资公司支付给我们的股息,已包含在第 15 页逐一列出的经营利润中,大部分归在“保险集团:净投资收益”项下。)
The following table sets forth our 2000 look-through earnings, though I warn you that the figures can be no more than approximate, since they are based on a number of judgment calls. (The dividends paid to us by these investees have been included in the operating earnings itemized on page 15, mostly under "Insurance Group: Net Investment Income.")
伯克希尔的主要被投资公司
Berkshire's Major Investees
伯克希尔在年末的大致持股比例(1)
Berkshire's Approximate Ownership at Yearend (1)
伯克希尔享有的未分配经营利润份额(单位:百万美元)(2)
Berkshire's Share of Undistributed Operating Earnings (in millions) (2)
美国运通公司
American Express Company
11.4% $265
11.4% $265
可口可乐公司
The Coca-Cola Company
8.1% 160
8.1% 160
房地美
Freddie Mac
0.3% 106
0.3% 106
吉列公司
The Gillette Company
9.1% 51
9.1% 51
M&T 银行
M&T Bank
7.2% 23
7.2% 23
《华盛顿邮报》公司
The Washington Post Company
18.3% 18
18.3% 18
富国银行
Wells Fargo & Company
3.2% 117
3.2% 117
伯克希尔享有的主要被投资公司未分配利润总额
Berkshire's share of undistributed earnings of major investees
740
740
上述未分配被投资公司利润的假想税负(3)
Hypothetical tax on these undistributed investee earnings (3)
(104)
(104)
伯克希尔列报的经营利润
Reported operating earnings of Berkshire
1,779
1,779
伯克希尔透视盈余总计
Total look-through earnings of Berkshire
$ 2,415
$ 2,415
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(1)不含应归属于少数股东权益的股份
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(1) Does not include shares allocable to minority interests
(2)按年内平均持股计算
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(2) Calculated on average ownership for the year
(3)所用税率为 14%,即伯克希尔对所收大部分股息适用的税率
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(3) The tax rate used is 14%, which is the rate Berkshire pays on most dividends it receives
全面而公允的报告
Full and Fair Reporting
在伯克希尔,全面报告的意思是:把我们希望换到你的位置上、你也这样给我们的信息,原样给你。真到那种处境,查理和我想要的,是当前经营的全部要紧事实,外加首席执行官对这门生意长期经济特性的坦率看法。我们指望既有大量财务细节,也有对任何要紧数据的说明——好让我们读懂摆在眼前的东西。
At Berkshire, full reporting means giving you the information that we would wish you to give to us if our positions were reversed. What Charlie and I would want under that circumstance would be all the important facts about current operations as well as the CEOs frank view of the long-term economic characteristics of the business. We would expect both a lot of financial details and a discussion of any significant data we would need to interpret what was presented.
查理和我读年报时,对人员、厂房或产品的照片毫无兴趣。一见 EBITDA(息税折旧摊销前利润)几个字,我们就打哆嗦——难道管理层以为资本开支是牙仙掏钱?会计口径含糊、说不清道不明的,我们最起疑,因为这往往意味着管理层想藏点什么。我们也不想读公关部门或顾问炮制出来的那套。我们盼的是,公司首席执行官用他自己的话,把到底发生了什么讲给我们听。
When Charlie and I read reports, we have no interest in pictures of personnel, plants or products. References to EBITDA make us shudder ¾ does management think the tooth fairy pays for capital expenditures? Were very suspicious of accounting methodology that is vague or unclear, since too often that means management wishes to hide something. And we dont want to read messages that a public relations department or consultant has turned out. Instead, we expect a companys CEO to explain in his or her own words whats happening.
在我们看来,公允报告意味着让我们那 30 万“合伙人”同时拿到信息——至少尽量做到。因此,我们的年报和季报,都赶在周五收盘后到次日早晨这段时间挂上网。这么一来,股东和其他有心的投资者,既能及时读到这些要紧的披露,又有充裕的工夫在周一开盘前把里头的信息消化掉。今年的季度信息,将在 5 月 12 日、8 月 11 日和 11 月 10 日这几个周六发布。2001 年报则定在 3 月 9 日挂出。
For us, fair reporting means getting information to our 300,000 "partners" simultaneously, or as close to that mark as possible. We therefore put our annual and quarterly financials on the Internet between the close of the market on a Friday and the following morning. By our doing that, shareholders and other interested investors have timely access to these important releases and also have a reasonable amount of time to digest the information they include before the markets open on Monday. This year our quarterly information will be available on the Saturdays of May 12, August 11, and November 10. The 2001 annual report will be posted on March 9.
我们要为阿瑟·莱维特二世的工作喝彩——他不久前还任美国证券交易委员会主席——他狠抓“选择性披露”,而这种企业陋习近年已像癌一样蔓延开来。说真的,大公司“引导”分析师或大股东去往某个盈利预期靠拢——这个预期要么正好命中,要么略低于公司真实的盈利预判——差不多都成了通行做法。借着这些私下递出的暗示、眼色和点头,投机取向的机构和顾问,就比一门心思做投资的散户,先一步握住了信息优势。这是一种腐败,可惜华尔街和美国企业界都欣然照办。
We applaud the work that Arthur Levitt, Jr., until recently Chairman of the SEC, has done in cracking down on the corporate practice of "selective disclosure" that had spread like cancer in recent years. Indeed, it had become virtually standard practice for major corporations to "guide" analysts or large holders to earnings expectations that were intended either to be on the nose or a tiny bit below what the company truly expected to earn. Through the selectively dispersed hints, winks and nods that companies engaged in, speculatively-minded institutions and advisors were given an information edge over investment-oriented individuals. This was corrupt behavior, unfortunately embraced by both Wall Street and corporate America.
多亏了莱维特主席——他为投资者所做的种种努力,既不知疲倦又切实有效——如今公司被要求一视同仁地对待全体股东。这场改革靠的是强制、而非良知,这本身对首席执行官和他们的投资者关系部门来说,该是件羞于启齿的事。
Thanks to Chairman Levitt, whose general efforts on behalf of investors were both tireless and effective, corporations are now required to treat all of their owners equally. The fact that this reform came about because of coercion rather than conscience should be a matter of shame for CEOs and their investor relations departments.
既然站上了讲台,索性再多说一句:查理和我都认为,首席执行官去预测自家公司的增长率,既误导人又危险。当然,分析师和他们自家的投资者关系部门常撺掇他们这么干。可他们该顶住,因为这类预测太容易惹祸。
One further thought while Im on my soapbox: Charlie and I think it is both deceptive and dangerous for CEOs to predict growth rates for their companies. They are, of course, frequently egged on to do so by both analysts and their own investor relations departments. They should resist, however, because too often these predictions lead to trouble.
首席执行官心里揣着自己的内部目标,这没问题;在我们看来,只要伴以中肯的告诫,他就未来公开说几句盼头,也未尝不可。但一家大公司要是预言自己每股盈利长期能以比如每年 15% 的速度增长,那就是自找麻烦。
Its fine for a CEO to have his own internal goals and, in our view, its even appropriate for the CEO to publicly express some hopes about the future, if these expectations are accompanied by sensible caveats. But for a major corporation to predict that its per-share earnings will grow over the long term at, say, 15% annually is to court trouble.
之所以如此,是因为能把这般增速一直撑住的大企业,只是极小的一撮。不妨来做个测验:挑出比如 1970 年或 1980 年盈利最高的 200 家公司,数数打那时起有几家的每股盈利做到了年增 15%。你会发现只有寥寥几家。我敢跟你押一大笔钱:2000 年最赚钱的那 200 家公司里,未来 20 年能实现每股盈利年增 15% 的,凑不满 10 家。
Thats true because a growth rate of that magnitude can only be maintained by a very small percentage of large businesses. Heres a test: Examine the record of, say, the 200 highest earning companies from 1970 or 1980 and tabulate how many have increased per-share earnings by 15% annually since those dates. You will find that only a handful have. I would wager you a very significant sum that fewer than 10 of the 200 most profitable companies in 2000 will attain 15% annual growth in earnings-per-share over the next 20 years.
高调预言惹出的麻烦,不止是散播了没来由的乐观。更棘手的是,它会腐蚀首席执行官的行事。这些年,查理和我见过太多这样的例子:首席执行官为凑上自己放出的盈利目标,做出种种不划算的经营腾挪。更糟的是,运营上的花活使尽之后,他们有时便玩起五花八门的会计把戏去“把数字做出来”。这些会计猫腻会像滚雪球一样越滚越大:公司一旦把盈利在期间之间挪来挪去,日后再出现经营缺口,就得靠更“英勇”的会计手法去填,而这些手法只会一次比一次夸张。粉饰就这样一步步滑向造假。(有人说得好:靠一支笔尖偷走的钱,比靠一个枪口抢走的还多。)
The problem arising from lofty predictions is not just that they spread unwarranted optimism. Even more troublesome is the fact that they corrode CEO behavior. Over the years, Charlie and I have observed many instances in which CEOs engaged in uneconomic operating maneuvers so that they could meet earnings targets they had announced. Worse still, after exhausting all that operating acrobatics would do, they sometimes played a wide variety of accounting games to "make the numbers." These accounting shenanigans have a way of snowballing: Once a company moves earnings from one period to another, operating shortfalls that occur thereafter require it to engage in further accounting maneuvers that must be even more "heroic." These can turn fudging into fraud. (More money, it has been noted, has been stolen with the point of a pen than at the point of a gun.)
对那些靠花哨预言讨好投资者的首席执行官所掌管的公司,查理和我都倾向于心存警惕。这些人当中,少数会证明自己确有先见之明——但另一些则会暴露出他们不过是天生的乐天派,甚至是江湖骗子。不幸的是,投资者很难提前分辨自己遇到的是哪一类。
Charlie and I tend to be leery of companies run by CEOs who woo investors with fancy predictions. A few of these managers will prove prophetic ¾ but others will turn out to be congenital optimists, or even charlatans. Unfortunately, its not easy for investors to know in advance which species they are dealing with.
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过去我就提醒过诸位:关于伯克希尔的说法,不要凡是读到、听到的就照单全收——哪怕它出自某家名头响亮的新闻机构。事实上,错误报道若是由那些备受敬重的媒体传出来,就格外危险,只因为大多数读者和听众知道这些渠道一贯可信,于是它说什么便信什么。
Ive warned you in the past that you should not believe everything you read or hear about Berkshire ¾ even when it is published or broadcast by a prestigious news organization. Indeed, erroneous reports are particularly dangerous when they are circulated by highly-respected members of the media, simply because most readers and listeners know these outlets to be generally credible and therefore believe what they say.
举个例子。去年 12 月 29 日的《华尔街日报》上,就有一处关于伯克希尔动向的扎眼错误——这份报纸整体极为出色,我一辈子都觉得它有用。在头版(用行话说,还在折线上方),《华尔街日报》登了一则简讯,斩钉截铁地说我们正在买入 Conseco 和 Finova 的债券。这条简讯指引读者去看《货币与投资》版的头条。而在那篇报道的第二段,《华尔街日报》再一次——
An example is a glaring error about Berkshires activities that appeared in the December 29 issue of The Wall Street Journal , a generally excellent paper that I have for all of my life found useful. On the front page (and above the fold, as they say) The Journal published a news brief that said, in unequivocal terms, that we were buying bonds of Conseco and Finova. This item directed the reader to the lead story of the Money and Investing section. There, in the second paragraph of the story, The Journal reported, again
同样不加任何限定地报道说伯克希尔正在买入 Conseco 和 Finova 的债券,还说伯克希尔往每家都投了“数亿美元”。直到报道的第 18 段(此时已翻到内页),报纸才略微留了点余地,说我们买入 Conseco 一事是“知情人士”透露的。
without any qualification , that Berkshire was buying Conseco and Finova bonds, adding that Berkshire had invested "several hundred million dollars" in each. Only in the 18 th paragraph of the story (which by that point had jumped to an inside page) did the paper hedge a bit, saying that our Conseco purchases had been disclosed by "people familiar with the matter."
唉,其实没那么“知情”。不错,我们确实买过 Finova 的债券和银行贷款——尽管报道里的金额错得离谱。可直到今天,伯克希尔也好,我本人也好,都没买过 Conseco 的一股股票或一张债券。
Well, not that familiar. True, we had purchased bonds and bank debt of Finova ¾ though the report was wildly inaccurate as to the amount. But to this day neither Berkshire nor I have ever bought a share of stock or a bond of Conseco.
平日里报道伯克希尔的,是《华尔街日报》驻芝加哥的一位记者,此人既准确又尽责。可这一回,那条“独家”出自该报一位纽约记者之手。那个 29 号他确实忙得很:午后不久,他就把这条消息又搬上了 CNBC。别的几家素有声望的新闻机构随即像旅鼠般盲从,单凭《华尔街日报》一家,就转述起同样的“事实”。结果:Conseco 的股票当天放出异常巨量、大涨一场,冲上了纽交所成交最活跃榜的第九位。
Berkshire is normally covered by a Journal reporter in Chicago who is both accurate and conscientious. In this case, however, the "scoop" was the product of a New York reporter for the paper. Indeed, the 29 th was a busy day for him: By early afternoon, he had repeated the story on CNBC. Immediately, in lemming-like manner, other respected news organizations, relying solely on the Journal , began relating the same "facts." The result: Conseco stock advanced sharply during the day on exceptional volume that placed it ninth on the NYSE most-active list.
在这条消息传来传去的整个过程中,我从没听到、也没读到过“传闻”二字。看来,那些平日以用词考究自诩的记者和编辑,就是没法让自己把这两个字安到自家的报道上。可还有哪个词能比它更贴切?肯定不是那句惯用的“据消息人士称”或“据报道”。
During all of the storys iterations, I never heard or read the word "rumor." Apparently reporters and editors, who generally pride themselves on their careful use of language, just cant bring themselves to attach this word to their accounts. But what description would fit more precisely? Certainly not the usual "sources say" or "it has been reported."
然而,一个叫“今日传闻”的栏目,跟许多自视高于此道的新闻机构的自我形象是对不上的。这些媒体会觉得,登这种公认是没营养的东西,无异于《罗马观察报》去开一个八卦专栏。可无论它们躲在哪种委婉说法后头,这些机构常登、常播的,就是传闻。至低限度,读者理应得到一句诚实的措辞——一张警示标签,好护住他们的财务健康,正如身体健康有虞的烟民会被给一句警告一样。
A column entitled "Todays Rumors," however, would not equate with the self-image of the many news organizations that think themselves above such stuff. These members of the media would feel that publishing such acknowledged fluff would be akin to LOsservatore Romano initiating a gossip column. But rumors are what these organizations often publish and broadcast, whatever euphemism they duck behind. At a minimum, readers deserve honest terminology ¾ a warning label that will protect their financial health in the same way that smokers whose physical health is at risk are given a warning.
宪法第一修正案,容许媒体印几乎任何东西、说几乎任何话。而新闻业的第一原则,本该要求媒体在决定印什么、说什么时慎之又慎。
The Constitutions First Amendment allows the media to print or say almost anything. Journalisms First Principle should require that the media be scrupulous in deciding what that will be.
杂项
Miscellaneous
在去年的年报里,我们审视过当时围着并购会计中的“权益结合法”打的那场笔仗。在我们看来,交锋双方的论据各有其相当有力的一面,也各有其大有问题的一面。我们很高兴,财务会计准则委员会此后改采了另一套办法,在我们看来相当稳妥。
In last years report we examined the battle then raging over the use of "pooling" in accounting for mergers. It seemed to us that both sides were voicing arguments that were strong in certain respects and seriously flawed in others. We are pleased that the Financial Accounting Standards Board has since gone to an alternative approach that strikes us as very sound.
这项拟议规则若最终定案,我们就不必再年年为无形资产摊销计一大笔费用了。这么一来,我们报出的盈利会更贴近经济实况。(见第 65 页。)不过这些对伯克希尔的内在价值毫无影响。倒是你们这位董事长会得点私利——往后写这些信时,又少了一样要费口舌解释的东西。
If the proposed rule becomes final, we will no longer incur a large annual charge for amortization of intangibles. Consequently, our reported earnings will more closely reflect economic reality. (See page 65.) None of this will have an effect on Berkshires intrinsic value. Your Chairman, however, will personally benefit in that there will be one less item to explain in these letters.
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随信附上一份查理去年 5 月在西科金融股东大会上的发言记录——这份材料承蒙《杰出投资者文摘》慷慨提供。论对商业经济和投资问题的思考,查理比我认识的任何人都要透彻,多年来我听他讲,长了不少见识。读一读他这些话,会加深你对伯克希尔的理解。
Im enclosing a report ¾ generously supplied by Outstanding Investor Digest ¾ of Charlies remarks at last Mays Wesco annual meeting. Charlie thinks about business economics and investment matters better than anyone I know, and Ive learned a lot over the years by listening to him. Reading his comments will improve your understanding of Berkshire.
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1985 年,我们买下斯科特-费泽,不光得了一门好生意,还得了一位名副其实的杰出 CEO 拉尔夫·谢伊的效力。拉尔夫那时 61 岁。多数公司只认年龄、不认本事,本来只能受用他的才干区区几年。
In 1985, we purchased Scott Fetzer, acquiring not only a fine business but the services of Ralph Schey, a truly outstanding CEO, as well. Ralph was then 61. Most companies, focused on the calendar rather than ability, would have benefited from Ralphs talents for only a few years.
在伯克希尔却不然。拉尔夫掌管斯科特-费泽整整 15 年,直到 2000 年底退休。在他治下,这家公司向伯克希尔上缴了 10.3 亿美元,而我们的净买入价不过 2.3 亿美元。这些钱我们转手又拿去收购别的生意。算下来,拉尔夫对伯克希尔今日价值的贡献,远远够得上以十亿美元计。
At Berkshire, in contrast, Ralph ran Scott Fetzer for 15 years until his retirement at the end of 2000. Under his leadership, the company distributed $1.03 billion to Berkshire against our net purchase price of $230 million. We used these funds, in turn, to purchase other businesses. All told, Ralphs contributions to Berkshires present value extend well into the billions of dollars.
作为经理人,拉尔夫理当进伯克希尔的名人堂,查理和我欢迎他入列。
As a manager, Ralph belongs in Berkshires Hall of Fame, and Charlie and I welcome him to it.
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说点怀旧的:整整 50 年前,我走进哥伦比亚大学本·格雷厄姆的课堂。在那之前的十年,我喜欢——该说是热爱——分析、买卖股票。可我的成绩并不比平均水平强。
A bit of nostalgia: It was exactly 50 years ago that I entered Ben Grahams class at Columbia. During the decade before, I had enjoyed ¾ make that loved ¾ analyzing, buying and selling stocks. But my results were no better than average.
从 1951 年起,我的成绩有了起色。不,我没改食谱,也没开始锻炼。唯一多出来的成分,是本的那些思想。说白了,在大师脚下坐上几个钟头,比我此前十年自以为独创的琢磨值钱得多。
Beginning in 1951 my performance improved. No, I hadnt changed my diet or taken up exercise. The only new ingredient was Bens ideas. Quite simply, a few hours spent at the feet of the master proved far more valuable to me than had ten years of supposedly original thinking.
本不光是位了不起的老师,更是位极好的朋友。我欠他的,无从计量。
In addition to being a great teacher, Ben was a wonderful friend. My debt to him is incalculable.
股东指定捐赠
Shareholder-Designated Contributions
伯克希尔 2000 年的股东指定捐赠计划,约有 97% 的合资格股份参与,捐款总额达 1,690 万美元。该计划的完整说明请见第 74—75 页。
About 97% of all eligible shares participated in Berkshire's 2000 shareholder-designated contributions program, with contributions totaling $16.9 million. A full description of the program appears on pages 74-75.
该计划推行 20 年来,伯克希尔累计遵照股东的指定捐出了 1.64 亿美元。伯克希尔其余的捐赠由子公司经手,它们沿用了被收购前各自一直遵循的慈善模式(唯一的例外是,原老板的个人慈善事业改由他们自行承担)。2000 年,我们的子公司捐赠总额为 1,830 万美元,其中包括 300 万美元的实物捐赠。
Cumulatively, over the 20 years of the program, Berkshire has made contributions of $164 million pursuant to the instructions of our shareholders. The rest of Berkshire's giving is done by our subsidiaries, which stick to the philanthropic patterns that prevailed before they were acquired (except that their former owners themselves take on the responsibility for their personal charities). In aggregate, our subsidiaries made contributions of $18.3 million in 2000, including in-kind donations of $3 million.
要参加未来的计划,你名下的 A 类股必须登记在实际所有人名下,而不能挂在券商、银行或存管机构的代持名义下。截至 2001 年 8 月 31 日仍未如此登记的股份,将不符合 2001 年计划的参与资格。收到我们寄出的捐赠表格后,请尽早寄回,以免放在一边或遗忘。逾期收到的指定将不予受理。
To participate in future programs, you must own Class A shares that are registered in the name of the actual owner, not the nominee name of a broker, bank or depository. Shares not so registered on August 31, 2001 will be ineligible for the 2001 program. When you get the contributions form from us, return it promptly so that it does not get put aside or forgotten. Designations received after the due date will not be honored.
年度股东大会
The Annual Meeting
去年我们把年会挪到了市政礼堂,效果很好。今年 4 月 28 日(周六)我们还在那里开。7 点开门,8 点半放电影,9 点半正式开会。正午稍歇片刻用餐,市政礼堂的小卖部有三明治供应。除了这段小憩,查理和我会一路答问到下午 3 点半。
Last year we moved the annual meeting to the Civic Auditorium, and it worked very well for us. We will meet there again on Saturday, April 28. The doors will open at 7 a.m., the movie will begin at 8:30, and the meeting itself will commence at 9:30. There will be a short break at noon for food, with sandwiches available at the Civics concession stands. Except for that interlude, Charlie and I will answer questions until 3:30.
在未来几年里,市政礼堂是我们唯一的选择。因此,我们必须将会议安排在周六或周日,以避开工作日那场交通拥堵和无处停车的噩梦。不过,奥马哈很快就会建成一座停车位充足的崭新会展中心。届时如果我们能使用该中心,我将征询股东意见,看大家是否愿意改回星期一开会。我们届时将按多数股东的意愿做出决定,而非按多数股份来决定。
For the next couple of years, the Civic is our only choice. We must therefore hold the meeting on either Saturday or Sunday to avoid the traffic and parking nightmare that would occur on a weekday. Shortly, however, Omaha will have a new Convention Center with ample parking. Assuming that the Center is then available to us, I will poll shareholders to see whether you wish to return to a Monday meeting. We will decide that vote based on the wishes of a majority of shareholders, not shares.
本报告随附的委托书材料中,附有一份说明,告知你如何取得今年入场会议及其他活动所需的凭证。至于机票、酒店和租车预订,我们已再次签约美国运通(800-799-6634),为你提供特别协助。按惯例,我们将安排班车从各大酒店前往会场。会后,班车将返回酒店,并前往内布拉斯加家具城、波仙珠宝和机场。即便如此,你可能会发现自备一辆车会更方便。
An attachment to the proxy material that is enclosed with this report explains how you can obtain the credential you will need for admission to this years meeting and other events. As for plane, hotel and car reservations, we have again signed up American Express (800-799-6634) to give you special help. In our normal fashion, we will run buses from the larger hotels to the meeting. After the meeting, the buses will make trips back to the hotels and to Nebraska Furniture Mart, Borsheim's and the airport. Even so, you are likely to find a car useful.
今年伯克希尔新增了如此多的公司,我将不一一详述会上待售的所有产品。但请务必做好准备,把砖块到糖果等各种商品搬回家去。不过,有一款新产品值得特别关注:鲍勃·肖设计了一块 3 英尺 × 5 英尺的地毯,上面织着一幅查理惟妙惟肖的头像。显然,如果销量不佳迫使我们大幅削价,对查理来说就太尴尬了——简直是一种羞辱——所以,请走上前来,尽一份力吧。
We have added so many new companies to Berkshire this year that Im not going to detail all of the products that we will be selling at the meeting. But come prepared to carry home everything from bricks to candy. One new product, however, deserves special note: Bob Shaw has designed a 3 x 5 rug featuring an excellent likeness of Charlie. Obviously, it would be embarrassing for Charlie ¾ make that humiliating ¾ if slow sales forced us to slash the rugs price, so step up and do your part.
GEICO 将设一个展台,由来自全国各地多位顶尖顾问坐镇,随时为您提供车险报价。在多数情况下,GEICO 能为您提供一个专门的股东折扣(通常为 8%)。请带上您现有保险的详细信息,看看我们能否为您省下一些钱。
GEICO will have a booth staffed by a number of its top counselors from around the country, all of them ready to supply you with auto insurance quotes. In most cases, GEICO will be able to offer you a special shareholder's discount (usually 8%). Bring the details of your existing insurance and check out whether we can save you some money.
周六在奥马哈机场,我们将照常陈列一批 Executive Jet 的飞机,供您参观。只需向市政礼堂的 EJA 代表询问即可。如果您在这周末买下了我们认为数量够多的商品,您或许真需要一架自己的飞机才能把它们运回家。
At the Omaha airport on Saturday, we will have the usual array of aircraft from Executive Jet available for your inspection. Just ask an EJA representative at the Civic about viewing any of these planes. If you buy what we consider an appropriate number of items during the weekend, you may well need your own plane to take them home.
在内布拉斯加家具城,它坐落于道奇街与太平洋街之间的第 72 街上,占地 75 英亩,我们将再次推出“伯克希尔周末”特惠价,也即我们将为股东提供通常只给予员工的折扣。四年前,我们在 NFM 首度推出这一特价,“周末”期间的销售额已从 1997 年的 530 万美元攀升至 2000 年的 910 万美元。
At Nebraska Furniture Mart, located on a 75-acre site on 72 nd Street between Dodge and Pacific, we will again be having "Berkshire Weekend" pricing, which means we will be offering our shareholders a discount that is customarily given only to employees. We initiated this special pricing at NFM four years ago and sales during the "Weekend" grew from $5.3 million in 1997 to $9.1 million in 2000.
要享受此折扣,您须在 4 月 25 日周三至 4 月 30 日周一之间购物,并出示您的参会凭证。该时段的特价甚至适用于几家通常有不可打折的铁律的知名品牌产品——出于我们股东周末的精神,它们为您破例了一次。我们感谢它们的配合。NFM 的营业时间为工作日上午 10 点至晚上 9 点,周六和周日为上午 10 点至下午 6 点。
To get the discount, you must make your purchases between Wednesday, April 25 and Monday, April 30 and also present your meeting credential. The periods special pricing will even apply to the products of several prestige manufacturers that normally have ironclad rules against discounting but that, in the spirit of our shareholder weekend, have made an exception for you. We appreciate their cooperation. NFM is open from 10 a.m. to 9 p.m. on weekdays and 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Saturdays and Sundays.
波仙珠宝——全美除蒂芙尼曼哈顿店外最大的珠宝店——会办两场只对股东开放的活动。头一场是 4 月 27 日(周五)下午 6 点到 10 点的鸡尾酒会;第二场是重头戏,4 月 29 日(周日)上午 9 点到下午 5 点。股东价从周四一直供到周一,所以你若不想挤周五晚上和周日的人潮,尽可另挑时间来,报上股东身份即可。周六我们营业到下午 6 点。波仙的毛利率整整比几家大对手低 20 个百分点,所以你买得越多、省得越多(至少我家里人总这么跟我说)。
Borsheim's ¾ the largest jewelry store in the country except for Tiffany's Manhattan store ¾ will have two shareholder-only events. The first will be a cocktail reception from 6 p.m. to 10 p.m. on Friday, April 27. The second, the main gala, will be from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. on Sunday, April 29. Shareholder prices will be available Thursday through Monday, so if you wish to avoid the large crowds that will assemble on Friday evening and Sunday, come at other times and identify yourself as a shareholder. On Saturday, we will be open until 6 p.m. Borsheim's operates on a gross margin that is fully twenty percentage points below that of its major rivals, so the more you buy, the more you save (or at least thats what my family always tells me).
在波仙珠宝店外的商场里,周日我们将请来本地桥牌高手陪股东切磋。往年常与我们在一起的鲍勃·哈曼今年将远在非洲。但他已承诺 2002 年一定到场。两度全美国际象棋冠军帕特里克·沃尔夫也将坐镇商场,蒙眼迎战所有来者!去年,帕特里克最多同时和六人对弈——蒙着眼睛——并悉数击败了对手。
In the mall outside of Borsheim's, we will have local bridge experts available to play with our shareholders on Sunday. Bob Hamman, who normally is with us, will be in Africa this year. He has promised, however, to be on hand in 2002. Patrick Wolff, twice U.S. chess champion, will also be in the mall, taking on all comers ¾ blindfolded! Last year, Patrick played as many as six games simultaneously ¾ with his blindfold securely in place ¾ and demolished his opponents.
如果这些还不够考验您的技艺,今年我们的波仙奥林匹克大赛还将迎来比尔·罗伯蒂,他是史上仅有的两位两度问鼎西洋双陆棋世界冠军的棋手之一。西洋双陆棋可以赌得很大,所以请带上您的股票凭证。
As if all this isnt enough to test your skills, our Borsheims Olympiad this year will also include Bill Robertie, one of only two players to twice win the backgammon world championship. Backgammon can be a big money game, so bring along your stock certificates.
戈瑞特——我最中意的牛排馆——会在 4 月 29 日(周日)再度只为伯克希尔股东开门,下午 4 点营业到晚上 10 点。切记,周日去戈瑞特非得先订位不可。订位请在 4 月 2 日(不能更早)拨打 402-551-3733。周日若订满了,就挑你在城里的别的晚上去。你若点一份三分熟的丁骨牛排,再加双份薯饼,就算亮出了美食家的资格。
Gorat's ¾ my favorite steakhouse ¾ will again be open exclusively for Berkshire shareholders on Sunday, April 29, and will be serving from 4 p.m. until 10 p.m. Please remember that you can't come to Gorat's on Sunday without a reservation. To make one, call 402-551-3733 on April 2 ( but not before ). If Sunday is sold out, try Gorat's on one of the other evenings you will be in town. If you order a rare T-bone with a double order of hash browns, you will establish your credentials as an epicure.
照例的棒球赛,将在周六晚 7 点于罗森布拉特体育场举行。今年是奥马哈金钉队对阵新奥尔良和风队。厄尼·班克斯又会到场——勇气可嘉——来接我的快球(曾测出时速 95 英里——
The usual baseball game will be held at Rosenblatt Stadium at 7 p.m. on Saturday night. This year the Omaha Golden Spikes will play the New Orleans Zephyrs. Ernie Banks is again going to be on hand to ¾ bravely ¾ face my fastball (once clocked at 95 mpm ¾
此“英里”乃每月行驶里程之谓)。
miles per month).
去年我的发挥算不上最佳:投了五个才勉强扔出一个像样的好球。信我一句,当你找不着好球区时,投手丘上真是形单影只。终于我把一个球投进了区,厄尼却抡出一记平飞球直奔左外野。我被换下场后,在场那一大帮体育记者问我究竟喂给了厄尼什么球。我便搬出沃伦·斯潘的那句话——当年威利·梅斯把他一个投球轰成本垒打(梅斯大联盟生涯的头一发)后,斯潘说:“头六十英尺,那可是记好球。”
My performance last year was not my best: It took me five pitches to throw anything resembling a strike. And, believe me, it gets lonely on the mound when you cant find the plate. Finally, I got one over, and Ernie lashed a line drive to left field. After I was yanked from the game, the many sports writers present asked what I had served up to Ernie. I quoted what Warren Spahn said after Willie Mays hit one of his pitches for a home run (Willies first in the majors): "It was a helluva pitch for the first sixty feet."
今年可就是另一码事了。我不想亮底牌,只这么说吧:厄尼要对付的,是一记他从没见过的球。
It will be a different story this year. I dont want to tip my hand, so lets just say Ernie will have to deal with a pitch he has never seen before.
我们的委托说明书里,附有领取球票的办法,还有一大堆别的信息,能帮你在奥马哈玩得尽兴。城里届时热闹得很。那就来赴这场“伍德斯托克周末”,跟我们一起在市政礼堂庆贺资本主义吧。
Our proxy statement contains instructions about obtaining tickets to the game and also a large quantity of other information that should help you enjoy your visit in Omaha. There will be plenty of action in town. So come for Woodstock Weekend and join our Celebration of Capitalism at the Civic.
2001 年 2 月 28 日
February 28, 2001
沃伦·E·巴菲特 董事会主席
Warren E. Buffett Chairman of the Board