2001 年致股东信

致股东信 · 原文约 11907 词
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董事长致辞

Chairman's Letter

注:下表印在年报印刷版中董事长信函的对页上,信中提及了该表。

Note: The following table appears in the printed Annual Report on the facing page of the Chairman's Letter and is referred to in that letter.

伯克希尔公司业绩 vs. 标普 500 指数

Berkshire's Corporate Performance vs. the S&P 500

年度百分比变化

Annual Percentage Change

年份

Year

伯克希尔每股账面价值变化

in Per-Share Book Value of Berkshire

(1)
(1)

标普 500 指数(含股息)变化

in S&P 500 with Dividends Included

(2)
(2)

相对业绩

Relative Results

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

(1)-(2)
1965
23.8
10.0
13.8
1966
20.3
(11.7)
32.0
1967
11.0
30.9
(19.9)
1968
19.0
11.0
8.0
1969
16.2
(8.4)
24.6
1970
12.0
3.9
8.1
1971
16.4
14.6
1.8
1972
21.7
18.9
2.8
1973
4.7
(14.8)
19.5
1974
5.5
(26.4)
31.9
1975
21.9
37.2
(15.3)
1976
59.3
23.6
35.7
1977
31.9
(7.4)
39.3
1978
24.0
6.4
17.6
1979
35.7
18.2
17.5
1980
19.3
32.3
(13.0)
1981
31.4
(5.0)
36.4
1982
40.0
21.4
18.6
1983
32.3
22.4
9.9
1984
13.6
6.1
7.5
1985
48.2
31.6
16.6
1986
26.1
18.6
7.5
1987
19.5
5.1
14.4
1988
20.1
16.6
3.5
1989
44.4
31.7
12.7
1990
7.4
(3.1)
10.5
1991
39.6
30.5
9.1
1992
20.3
7.6
12.7
1993
14.3
10.1
4.2
1994
13.9
1.3
12.6
1995
43.1
37.6
5.5
1996
31.8
23.0
8.8
1997
34.1
33.4
.7
1998
48.3
28.6
19.7
1999
.5
21.0
(20.5)
2000
6.5
(9.1)
15.6
2001
(6.2)
(11.9)
5.7
(1)-(2)
1965
23.8
10.0
13.8
1966
20.3
(11.7)
32.0
1967
11.0
30.9
(19.9)
1968
19.0
11.0
8.0
1969
16.2
(8.4)
24.6
1970
12.0
3.9
8.1
1971
16.4
14.6
1.8
1972
21.7
18.9
2.8
1973
4.7
(14.8)
19.5
1974
5.5
(26.4)
31.9
1975
21.9
37.2
(15.3)
1976
59.3
23.6
35.7
1977
31.9
(7.4)
39.3
1978
24.0
6.4
17.6
1979
35.7
18.2
17.5
1980
19.3
32.3
(13.0)
1981
31.4
(5.0)
36.4
1982
40.0
21.4
18.6
1983
32.3
22.4
9.9
1984
13.6
6.1
7.5
1985
48.2
31.6
16.6
1986
26.1
18.6
7.5
1987
19.5
5.1
14.4
1988
20.1
16.6
3.5
1989
44.4
31.7
12.7
1990
7.4
(3.1)
10.5
1991
39.6
30.5
9.1
1992
20.3
7.6
12.7
1993
14.3
10.1
4.2
1994
13.9
1.3
12.6
1995
43.1
37.6
5.5
1996
31.8
23.0
8.8
1997
34.1
33.4
.7
1998
48.3
28.6
19.7
1999
.5
21.0
(20.5)
2000
6.5
(9.1)
15.6
2001
(6.2)
(11.9)
5.7

1965—2001 年平均年化收益率

Average Annual Gain ¾ 1965-2001

22.6%
11.0%
11.6%
22.6%
11.0%
11.6%

总收益率——1964—2001

Overall Gain ¾ 1964-2001

194,936%
4,742%
190,194%
194,936%
4,742%
190,194%

注:

Notes:

数据按日历年度计算,惟以下例外:1965 年和 1966 年为截至 9 月 30 日的年度;1967 年为截至 12 月 31 日的 15 个月。

Data are for calendar years with these exceptions: 1965 and 1966, year ended 9/30; 1967, 15 months ended 12/31.

从 1979 年起,会计准则要求保险公司持有的权益证券按市价计价,不再沿用此前的成本与市价孰低法。本表中,伯克希尔 1978 年及以前的业绩已按新规追溯调整;其余各项数据均沿用原始报告中的数字。

Starting in 1979, accounting rules required insurance companies to value the equity securities they hold at market rather than at the lower of cost or market, which was previously the requirement. In this table, Berkshire's results through 1978 have been restated to conform to the changed rules. In all other respects, the results are calculated using the numbers originally reported.

标普 500 指数为税前数据,伯克希尔为税后数据。假设伯克希尔这样一家公司只是持有标普 500 指数并计提相应税款,那么在指数上涨的年份,它的业绩会落后于指数;而在指数下跌的年份,它会跑赢指数。日积月累,税负会让这一累计落差相当可观。

The S&P 500 numbers are pre-tax whereas the Berkshire numbers are after-tax . If a corporation such as Berkshire were simply to have owned the S&P 500 and accrued the appropriate taxes, its results would have lagged the S&P 500 in years when that index showed a positive return, but would have exceeded the S&P in years when the index showed a negative return. Over the years, the tax costs would have caused the aggregate lag to be substantial.

伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.

致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司全体股东:

To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

2001 年,伯克希尔的净资产减少了 37.7 亿美元,A 类股和 B 类股的每股账面价值因此双双下跌 6.2%。过去 37 年间(即现任管理层接手以来),每股账面价值从 19 美元增长到 37,920 美元,年复合增长率为 22.6%。*

Berkshire’s loss in net worth during 2001 was $3.77 billion, which decreased the per-share book value of both our Class A and Class B stock by 6.2%. Over the last 37 years (that is, since present management took over) per-share book value has grown from $19 to $37,920, a rate of 22.6% compounded annually.*

本报告所用数字均对应伯克希尔的 A 股——它是公司 1996 年以前唯一流通股的延续;B 股的经济权益相当于 A 股的三十分之一。

  • All figures used in this report apply to Berkshire's A shares, the successor to the only stock that the company had outstanding before 1996. The B shares have an economic interest equal to 1/30th that of the A.

这 37 年里,每股内在价值的增速略快于账面价值,2001 年的降幅也可能略小一些。内在价值的含义,我们在第 62 页起的《股东手册》中作了解释。我恳请新股东读一读这本手册,熟悉伯克希尔的几条核心经济原则。

Per-share intrinsic grew somewhat faster than book value during these 37 years, and in 2001 it probably decreased a bit less. We explain intrinsic value in our Owner’s Manual, which begins on page 62. I urge new shareholders to read this manual to become familiar with Berkshire’s key economic principles.

两年前汇报 1999 年时,我说我们经历了有史以来最差的绝对业绩和相对业绩,还补了一句:“我们真正在意的是相对业绩。”这个看法,我从 1956 年 5 月 5 日创办第一家合伙投资公司起就一直坚持。那天晚上,我和七位创始有限合伙人见面,交给他们一份简短的文件,题为《基本规则》,其中有这样一句话:“我们干得好不好,要拿证券市场的整体表现来衡量。”起初我们以道琼斯工业平均指数为基准,后来标普 500 指数通行开来,便改用它。1965 年以来的对比记录列在对页;去年伯克希尔领先 5.7 个百分点。

Two years ago, reporting on 1999, I said that we had experienced both the worst absolute and relative performance in our history. I added that "relative results are what concern us," a viewpoint I’ve had since forming my first investment partnership on May 5, 1956. Meeting with my seven founding limited partners that evening, I gave them a short paper titled "The Ground Rules" that included this sentence: "Whether we do a good job or a poor job is to be measured against the general experience in securities." We initially used the Dow Jones Industrials as our benchmark, but shifted to the S&P 500 when that index became widely used. Our comparative record since 1965 is chronicled on the facing page; last year Berkshire’s advantage was 5.7 percentage points.

有人不赞成我们盯着相对数字,说“相对业绩又不能当饭吃”。可如果你像伯克希尔副董事长查理·芒格和我一样,相信长期持有标普 500 指数能带来说得过去的回报,那么对长期投资者而言,每年小幅跑赢这个指数,终将大有裨益。这就好比你拥有一门赚钱却季节性极强的生意——比如喜诗糖果(夏天那几个月要亏不少)——照样能一年到头吃得舒坦;投资回报只要长年跑赢平均水平,无论绝对数字怎样起落,你都能稳稳享用这场盛宴。

Some people disagree with our focus on relative figures, arguing that "you can’t eat relative performance." But if you expect ¾ as Charlie Munger, Berkshire’s Vice Chairman, and I do ¾ that owning the S&P 500 will produce reasonably satisfactory results over time, it follows that, for long-term investors, gaining small advantages annually over that index must prove rewarding. Just as you can eat well throughout the year if you own a profitable, but highly seasonal, business such as See’s (which loses considerable money during the summer months) so, too, can you regularly feast on investment returns that beat the averages, however variable the absolute numbers may be.

公司去年的业绩说得过去,我个人的表现却远谈不上。伯克希尔的大部分股票组合由我打理,成绩已经差了好几年,去年也不例外。更要紧的是,我明知有一道防线至关重要,却任由通用再保险在缺了它的情况下承接业务;到了 9 月 11 日,这个疏忽找上门来。这个错误的来龙去脉,以及我们正在采取的补救办法,我稍后细说。

Though our corporate performance last year was satisfactory, my performance was anything but. I manage most of Berkshire’s equity portfolio, and my results were poor, just as they have been for several years. Of even more importance, I allowed General Re to take on business without a safeguard I knew was important, and on September 11 th , this error caught up with us. I’ll tell you more about my mistake later and what we are doing to correct it.

我 1956 年立下的另一条基本规则至今仍然管用:“我无法向合伙人承诺业绩。”但查理和我可以承诺:在你持股期间,你从伯克希尔获得的经济回报将与我们同进退——我们不会领取现金薪酬、限制性股票或期权,好让自己的收益凌驾于你们之上。

Another of my 1956 Ground Rules remains applicable: "I cannot promise results to partners." But Charlie and I can promise that your economic result from Berkshire will parallel ours during the period of your ownership: We will not take cash compensation, restricted stock or option grants that would make our results superior to yours.

此外,我个人 99% 以上的净资产将始终留在伯克希尔。我和妻子从未卖过一股,也无意卖出。有一类现象近年屡见不鲜,查理和我深感厌恶:股东蒙受数十亿美元的损失,一手酿成灾难的首席执行官、推销者及其他高层却揣着惊人的财富全身而退。事实上,他们中不少人一边劝投资者买进,一边悄悄抛售自家股票,有时还用手段掩人耳目。可耻的是,这些企业头面人物把股东当成冤大头,而非合伙人。

Additionally, I will keep well over 99% of my net worth in Berkshire. My wife and I have never sold a share nor do we intend to. Charlie and I are disgusted by the situation, so common in the last few years, in which shareholders have suffered billions in losses while the CEOs, promoters, and other higher-ups who fathered these disasters have walked away with extraordinary wealth. Indeed, many of these people were urging investors to buy shares while concurrently dumping their own, sometimes using methods that hid their actions. To their shame, these business leaders view shareholders as patsies, not partners.

安然虽已成为坑害股东的代名词,但美国企业界别处的恶行同样不缺。我听过一个故事,把某些经理人对待所有者的心态刻画得入木三分:一场派对上,一位绝色女子款款贴近某位首席执行官,湿润的双唇轻启,柔声道:“我什么都愿意——

Though Enron has become the symbol for shareholder abuse, there is no shortage of egregious conduct elsewhere in corporate America. One story I’ve heard illustrates the all-too-common attitude of managers toward owners: A gorgeous woman slinks up to a CEO at a party and through moist lips purrs, "I’ll do anything ¾

什么都行——

anything

只要你开口。说吧,你想要什么。”他不假思索地答道:“把我的期权重新定价。”

¾ you want. Just tell me what you would like." With no hesitation, he replies, "Reprice my options."

关于伯克希尔,还有最后一点想说:往后我们再难重现过去的战绩。当然,查理和我仍会全力追求高于平均的表现,绝不甘于平庸。但今天伯克希尔面临的两个条件,与当年已大不相同:其一,那时我们常能以远低于如今的估值买进企业和证券;其二,也更关键——那时我们操盘的资金远比现在少。早些年,一个上千万美元的好点子就能给我们带来奇效(看看 1973 年买入《华盛顿邮报》、1976 年买入 GEICO 便知)。如今,就算十个这样的点子凑在一起、每个再翻两番,也只能让伯克希尔的净资产增加区区四分之一个百分点。要想有可观的斩获,我们现在得靠“大象”——而大象实在难寻。

One final thought about Berkshire: In the future we won’t come close to replicating our past record. To be sure, Charlie and I will strive for above-average performance and will not be satisfied with less. But two conditions at Berkshire are far different from what they once were: Then, we could often buy businesses and securities at much lower valuations than now prevail; and more important, we were then working with far less money than we now have. Some years back, a good $10 million idea could do wonders for us (witness our investment in Washington Post in 1973 or GEICO in 1976). Today, the combination of ten such ideas and a triple in the value of each would increase the net worth of Berkshire by only ¼ of 1%. We need "elephants" to make significant gains now ¾ and they are hard to find.

好的一面是,我们拥有一支任何公司都难以企及的运营经理队伍。(他们中许多人的故事,可以在罗伯特·P·迈尔斯的新书《The Warren Buffett CEO》中读到。)而且大体而言,他们执掌的生意,经济特质从优良到卓越不等。这些经理人的才干、干劲和忠诚,实在超乎寻常。伯克希尔走过 37 年,还没有一位运营企业的首席执行官另谋高就、离我们而去。

On the positive side, we have as fine an array of operating managers as exists at any company. (You can read about many of them in a new book by Robert P. Miles: The Warren Buffett CEO .) In large part, moreover, they are running businesses with economic characteristics ranging from good to superb. The ability, energy and loyalty of these managers is simply extraordinary. We now have completed 37 Berkshire years without having a CEO of an operating business elect to leave us to work elsewhere.

2001 年,我们这支明星阵容又添了新丁。先是完成了 2000 年就已谈妥的两笔收购——Shaw 和 Johns Manville;接着又拿下 MiTek 和 XTRA 两家,还签约再买两家:Larson-Juhl(这笔已经交割)和 Fruit of the Loom(只要债权人批准我们的报价,很快也会交割)。这些企业无一例外,都由聪明、老练、可靠的首席执行官掌舵。

Our star-studded group grew in 2001. First, we completed the purchases of two businesses that we had agreed to buy in 2000 ¾ Shaw and Johns Manville. Then we acquired two others, MiTek and XTRA, and contracted to buy two more: Larson-Juhl, an acquisition that has just closed, and Fruit of the Loom, which will close shortly if creditors approve our offer. All of these businesses are led by smart, seasoned and trustworthy CEOs.

还有一点:去年这几笔收购全用现金完成,也就是说,股东们既坐拥这些新添的生意,又丝毫没有稀释对原有优质公司的权益。我们会一如既往地照老办法行事:把手上这些出色的生意越做越好,物色同等品质的新生意收入囊中,同时对增发股份慎之又慎。

Additionally, all of our purchases last year were for cash, which means our shareholders became owners of these additional businesses without relinquishing any interest in the fine companies they already owned. We will continue to follow our familiar formula, striving to increase the value of the excellent businesses we have, adding new businesses of similar quality, and issuing shares only grudgingly.

2001 年的收购

Acquisitions of 2001

去年股东大会前几天,我收到一个从圣路易斯寄来的沉甸甸的包裹,里面是一块其貌不扬的金属件,我怎么也想不出它派什么用场。好在包裹里还附了一封信,来自一家叫 MiTek 的公司的首席执行官吉恩·图姆斯。他在信中解释,我收到的这东西叫“连接板”,用于制造屋顶桁架,MiTek 是全球最大的连接板生产商。吉恩还提到,MiTek 的英国母公司有意出售这家公司,而在他看来,伯克希尔正是再理想不过的买家。信的口吻让我心生好感,我便给吉恩去了电话。不到一分钟,我就认定他是我们想要的那种经理人,MiTek 也是我们想要的那种生意。我们向英国股东开出现金收购报价,没多久就成交了。

A few days before last year’s annual meeting, I received a heavy package from St. Louis, containing an unprepossessing chunk of metal whose function I couldn’t imagine. There was a letter in the package, though, from Gene Toombs, CEO of a company called MiTek. He explained that MiTek is the world’s leading producer of this thing I’d received, a "connector plate," which is used in making roofing trusses. Gene also said that the U.K. parent of MiTek wished to sell the company and that Berkshire seemed to him the ideal buyer. Liking the sound of his letter, I gave Gene a call. It took me only a minute to realize that he was our kind of manager and MiTek our kind of business. We made a cash offer to the U.K. owner and before long had a deal.

吉恩的管理团队对公司的热情极不寻常,他们想一起参与这笔收购。于是我们做了安排,让 MiTek 团队的 55 名成员买下公司 10% 的股份,每人至少拿出 10 万美元现金。不少人为此专门借钱入股。

Gene’s managerial crew is exceptionally enthusiastic about the company and wanted to participate in the purchase. Therefore, we arranged for 55 members of the MiTek team to buy 10% of the company, with each putting up a minimum of $100,000 in cash. Many borrowed money so they could participate.

要是他们拿的是期权,情况就截然不同了——这些经理人是名副其实的股东。决策带来的好处他们享受,带来的损失他们也得承担。他们要背负资本成本,也没法给自己的持股“重新定价”:当初出了多少钱,就得一直认这笔账。

As they would not be if they had options, all of these managers are true owners . They face the downside of decisions as well as the upside. They incur a cost of capital. And they can’t "reprice" their stakes: What they paid is what they live with.

查理和我非常欣赏 MiTek 骨子里那股高水准、实实在在的创业劲头,我们断定,它会让所有相关方都成为赢家。

Charlie and I love the high-grade, truly entrepreneurial attitude that exists at MiTek, and we predict it will be a winner for all involved.

  • * * * * * * * * * * *
  • * * * * * * * * * * *

2000 年初,我的朋友朱利安·罗伯逊宣布将终止他管理的投资合伙公司老虎基金,除四笔大额持仓外悉数清盘。其中一笔便是 XTRA——一家领先的卡车拖车租赁公司。我随即打电话给朱利安,问他是否愿意考虑卖掉手中的 XTRA 股份,或者换个角度,该公司管理层是否愿意考虑整体出售公司。朱利安让我去找 XTRA 的首席执行官卢·鲁宾。我和卢聊得很愉快,但显然这笔交易当时做不成。

In early 2000, my friend, Julian Robertson, announced that he would terminate his investment partnership, Tiger Fund, and that he would liquidate it entirely except for four large holdings. One of these was XTRA, a leading lessor of truck trailers. I then called Julian, asking whether he might consider selling his XTRA block or whether, for that matter, the company’s management might entertain an offer for the entire company. Julian referred me to Lew Rubin, XTRA’s CEO. He and I had a nice conversation, but it was apparent that no deal was to be done.

到了 2001 年 6 月,朱利安来电说他已决定卖掉 XTRA 股份,我便与卢重启了商谈。XTRA 董事会接受了我们提交的方案,交易将通过要约收购完成,要约截止日为 9 月 11 日。要约条款中有一条常见的“退出”约定:若在要约到期前股市休市,我们可以撤回要约。9 月 11 日那天大部分时间里,卢都在煎熬中度过:一来,他有个女婿在世贸中心上班,当时下落不明;二来,他清楚我们有权退出这笔收购。好在故事结局是圆满的:卢的女婿逃过一劫,没有大碍,伯克希尔也完成了这笔交易。

Then in June 2001, Julian called to say that he had decided to sell his XTRA shares, and I resumed conversations with Lew. The XTRA board accepted a proposal we made, which was to be effectuated through a tender offer expiring on September 11 th . The tender conditions included the usual "out," allowing us to withdraw if the stock market were to close before the offer’s expiration. Throughout much of the 11 th , Lew went through a particularly wrenching experience: First, he had a son-in-law working in the World Trade Center who couldn’t be located; and second, he knew we had the option of backing away from our purchase. The story ended happily: Lew’s son-in-law escaped serious harm, and Berkshire completed the transaction.

拖车租赁是一门周期性生意,但从长远看,我们应能从中获得不错的回报。卢为伯克希尔带来了新的专业人才,我们也希望能在租赁领域继续扩张。

Trailer leasing is a cyclical business but one in which we should earn decent returns over time. Lew brings a new talent to Berkshire, and we hope to expand in leasing.

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12 月 3 日,我接到克雷格·庞齐奥的电话,他是美国定制画框龙头 Larson-Juhl 的所有人。克雷格在 1981 年买下这家公司(那之前他还在上大学时,曾先在公司的工厂打工),此后把销售额从 300 万美元一路做到 3 亿美元。在他打电话之前,我从没听说过 Larson-Juhl,可跟他聊了几分钟,我就觉得这笔买卖能成。他介绍起生意来直截了当,很在意公司花落谁家,要价也切合实际。两天后,克雷格和他的首席执行官史蒂夫·麦肯齐来到奥马哈,我们九十分钟就谈妥了;十天之内签完了合同。

On December 3 rd , I received a call from Craig Ponzio, owner of Larson-Juhl, the U.S. leader in custom-made picture frames. Craig had bought the company in 1981 (after first working at its manufacturing plant while attending college) and thereafter increased its sales from $3 million to $300 million. Though I had never heard of Larson-Juhl before Craig’s call, a few minutes talk with him made me think we would strike a deal. He was straightforward in describing the business, cared about who bought it, and was realistic as to price. Two days later, Craig and Steve McKenzie, his CEO, came to Omaha and in ninety minutes we reached an agreement. In ten days we had signed a contract.

Larson-Juhl 服务全美约 1.8 万家装裱店,在加拿大和欧洲大部分地区也是行业领头羊。我们预计将来有机会进行补强型收购。

Larson-Juhl serves about 18,000 framing shops in the U.S. and is also the industry leader in Canada and much of Europe. We expect to see opportunities for making complementary acquisitions in the future.

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写这封信时,债权人正在考虑我们对 Fruit of the Loom 提交的收购报价。这家公司几年前申请破产,既倒在高负债上,也败在管理不善上。而在那之前好多年,我自己和 Fruit of the Loom 还有过一段亲身经历。

As I write this letter, creditors are considering an offer we have made for Fruit of the Loom. The company entered bankruptcy a few years back, a victim both of too much debt and poor management. And, a good many years before that, I had some Fruit of the Loom experience of my own.

1955 年 8 月,纽约有一家投资公司叫 Graham-Newman Corporation,我是公司五名员工之一(其中两位是秘书),为三位管理合伙人工作。Graham-Newman 控制着 Philadelphia and Reading Coal and Iron(简称“P&R”),这是一家无烟煤生产商,账上现金富余,有税务亏损可以结转,但主业正步步萎缩。当时,我把自己极其有限的净资产中很大一部分押在了 P&R 的股票上,足见我对三位老板——本·格雷厄姆、杰里·纽曼和霍华德(米基)·纽曼——的商业才能有多么信任。

In August 1955, I was one of five employees, including two secretaries, working for the three managers of Graham-Newman Corporation, a New York investment company. Graham-Newman controlled Philadelphia and Reading Coal and Iron ("P&R"), an anthracite producer that had excess cash, a tax loss carryforward, and a declining business. At the time, I had a significant portion of my limited net worth invested in P&R shares, reflecting my faith in the business talents of my bosses, Ben Graham, Jerry Newman and Howard (Micky) Newman.

这份信任得到了回报:P&R 用 1500 万美元从杰克·戈德法布手中买下了联合内衣公司。联合内衣(尽管当时还只是该品牌的被许可方)生产 Fruit of the Loom 品牌内衣。这家公司本身持有 500 万美元现金——P&R 用其中 250 万美元支付了收购款——每年税前利润约 300 万美元,而这些利润恰好能被 P&R 的税务状况所抵扣。哦,对了:余下应付的 1250 万美元中,整整 900 万美元是用无息票据支付的,还款资金完全来自联合内衣超过 100 万美元利润部分的 50%。(那真是黄金年代;光是想到这类交易,我至今仍会起鸡皮疙瘩。)

This faith was rewarded when P&R purchased the Union Underwear Company from Jack Goldfarb for $15 million. Union (though it was then only a licensee of the name) produced Fruit of the Loom underwear. The company possessed $5 million in cash ¾ $2.5 million of which P&R used for the purchase ¾ and was earning about $3 million pre-tax, earnings that could be sheltered by the tax position of P&R. And, oh yes: Fully $9 million of the remaining $12.5 million due was satisfied by non-interest-bearing notes, payable from 50% of any earnings Union had in excess of $1 million. ( Those were the days; I get goosebumps just thinking about such deals.)

此后,联合内衣买下了 Fruit of the Loom 品牌的授权方,并随 P&R 一道并入了西北工业公司。Fruit of the Loom 后来年税前利润曾突破 2 亿美元。

Subsequently, Union bought the licensor of the Fruit of the Loom name and, along with P&R, was merged into Northwest Industries. Fruit went on to achieve annual pre-tax earnings exceeding $200 million.

在 Fruit of the Loom 最红火的年月里,公司运营由约翰·霍兰德负责。然而 1996 年约翰退休后,管理层给公司堆上了巨额债务,部分资金用于一连串日后看来令人失望的收购,破产随之而来。约翰随后被重新请了回来,并对运营做了大刀阔斧的重整。在他回归之前,交货混乱不堪,成本飙升,与关键客户的关系也不断恶化。在纠偏这些问题的过程中,约翰还把人员从臃肿不堪的 4 万人精简到 2.3 万人。简而言之,他一直在重塑昔日的 Fruit of the Loom,尽管如今身处的竞争环境远比当年激烈。

John Holland was responsible for Fruit’s operations in its most bountiful years. In 1996, however, John retired, and management loaded the company with debt, in part to make a series of acquisitions that proved disappointing. Bankruptcy followed. John was then rehired, and he undertook a major reworking of operations. Before John’s return, deliveries were chaotic, costs soared and relations with key customers deteriorated. While correcting these problems, John also reduced employment from a bloated 40,000 to 23,000. In short, he’s been restoring the old Fruit of the Loom, albeit in a much more competitive environment.

介入 Fruit of the Loom 的破产程序后,我们向债权人提交了一份方案,方案没有附加任何融资条件,尽管我们的报价得挂在那里维持好几个月。但我们坚持加了一条极不寻常的附带条件:接手之后,约翰必须能够留任首席执行官。在我们看来,约翰和这个品牌,正是 Fruit of the Loom 最核心的两项资产。

Stepping into Fruit’s bankruptcy proceedings, we made a proposal to creditors to which we attached no financing conditions, even though our offer had to remain outstanding for many months. We did, however, insist on a very unusual proviso: John had to be available to continue serving as CEO after we took over. To us, John and the brand are Fruit’s key assets.

在这笔交易中,我的朋友兼老上级米基·纽曼帮了我的忙,他今年 81 岁。善有善报,此言当真不虚。

I was helped in this transaction by my friend and former boss, Micky Newman, now 81. What goes around truly does come around.

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这一年,我们旗下的运营公司做了几笔“补强型”收购,其中一笔我实在忍不住要讲给你们听。12 月,弗兰克·鲁尼来电告诉我,H.H. Brown 正以 70 万美元收购 Acme Boot 的库存和商标。

Our operating companies made several "bolt-on" acquisitions during the year, and I can’t resist telling you about one. In December, Frank Rooney called to tell me H.H. Brown was buying the inventory and trademarks of Acme Boot for $700,000.

听着像笔小买卖。可你信不信?——Acme 正是 P&R 的第二笔收购,就发生在 1956 年春天我离开 Graham-Newman 之前。当年收购价 320 万美元,其中一部分同样用无息票据支付,而这家公司的年销售额有 700 万美元。

That sounds like small potatoes. But ¾ would you believe it? ¾ Acme was the second purchase of P&R, an acquisition that took place just before I left Graham-Newman in the spring of 1956. The price was $3.2 million, part of it again paid with non-interest bearing notes, for a business with sales of $7 million.

P&R 并入西北工业后,Acme 一度做成了全球最大的靴子制造商,年利润是当初 P&R 收购成本的许多倍。可这门生意最终一落千丈,再未翻身,于是才有了我们买下 Acme 残剩资产这一幕。

After P&R merged with Northwest, Acme grew to be the world’s largest bootmaker, delivering annual profits many multiples of what the company had cost P&R. But the business eventually hit the skids and never recovered, and that resulted in our purchasing Acme’s remnants.

在《证券分析》的扉页上,本·格雷厄姆与戴维·多德引用了贺拉斯的一句诗:“今日沦落者,他日多将复兴;今日荣耀者,他日多将坠落。”自我初读这两行诗至今已五十二年,它道出的商业与投资真谛,在我心中分量愈重。

In the frontispiece to Security Analysis , Ben Graham and Dave Dodd quoted Horace: "Many shall be restored that now are fallen and many shall fall that are now in honor." Fifty-two years after I first read those lines, my appreciation for what they say about business and investments continues to grow.

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除了补强型收购,我们的经理人也在不断寻找内生增长的方式。说到这儿,我想给两年前讲过的 R.C. Willey 进军博伊西的故事添个后续。你或许还记得,R.C. Willey 董事长比尔·柴尔德想把家居生意扩张到犹他州以外——公司在犹他州的年销售额超过 3 亿美元(值得一提的是,48 年前比尔接手时不过 25 万美元)。更难得的是,公司靠着一条有悖零售业常识的规矩——“周日歇业”——坐上了当地头把交椅。我起初怀疑这套做法在博伊西行不通,在犹他州以外任何地方恐怕都行不通。毕竟,周日正是许多顾客最爱逛店的日子。

In addition to bolt-on acquisitions, our managers continually look for ways to grow internally. In that regard, here’s a postscript to a story I told you two years ago about R.C. Willey’s move to Boise. As you may remember, Bill Child, R.C. Willey’s chairman, wanted to extend his home-furnishings operation beyond Utah, a state in which his company does more than $300 million of business (up, it should be noted, from $250,000 when Bill took over 48 years ago). The company achieved this dominant position, moreover, with a "closed on Sunday" policy that defied conventional retailing wisdom. I was skeptical that this policy could succeed in Boise or, for that matter, anyplace outside of Utah. After all, Sunday is the day many consumers most like to shop.

比尔随后提出一个非同寻常的办法:他自掏 1100 万美元把博伊西这家店建起来,若经营成功,就按成本价(不收利息!)卖给伯克希尔;若不成,店归他自己,处置的亏损也由他一人承担。正如我在 1999 年年报里所说,这家店一开张便火爆异常,此后更是节节攀升。

Bill then insisted on something extraordinary: He would invest $11 million of his own money to build the Boise store and would sell it to Berkshire at cost (without interest!) if the venture succeeded. If it failed, Bill would keep the store and eat the loss on its disposal. As I told you in the 1999 annual report, the store immediately became a huge success ¾ and it has since grown.

博伊西店开张不久,比尔又提议去拉斯维加斯试试,这回我更犯嘀咕了。在那样规模的大都会,我们周日闭门谢客,而竞争对手个个借机大做文章,这生意怎么做得下去?可博伊西的成功给了我们底气,于是我们把店开在了紧邻拉斯维加斯、迅速崛起的亨德森市。

Shortly after the Boise opening, Bill suggested we try Las Vegas, and this time I was even more skeptical. How could we do business in a metropolis of that size and be closed on Sundays, a day that all of our competitors would be exploiting? Buoyed by the Boise experience, however, we proceeded to locate in Henderson, a mushrooming city adjacent to Las Vegas.

结果呢?这家店的销售额冠绝 R.C. Willey 全部门店,业务量远超任何一家对手,是我预想的整整两倍。10 月正式开业时我上台剪彩——此前已有一次“试营业”和几周异常火爆的销售——就像当年在博伊西一样,我对着人群说,这家新店是我的主意。

The result: This store outsells all others in the R.C. Willey chain, doing a volume of business that far exceeds the volume of any competitor and that is twice what I had anticipated. I cut the ribbon at the grand opening in October ¾ this was after a "soft" opening and a few weeks of exceptional sales ¾ and, just as I did at Boise, I suggested to the crowd that the new store was my idea.

这套说辞不灵了。如今每当我对零售业高谈阔论,伯克希尔的同事只回一句:“比尔怎么看?”(不过我把话撂这儿:要是他提议连周六也歇业,那我可不干。)

It didn’t work. Today, when I pontificate about retailing, Berkshire people just say, "What does Bill think?" (I’m going to draw the line, however, if he suggests that we also close on Saturdays.)

财产/意外险的经济学

The Economics of Property/Casualty Insurance

我们的主业是保险——尽管旗下还有其他举足轻重的生意。所以要读懂伯克希尔,你就得懂得如何评估一家保险公司。关键有三:一是这门生意能产生多少浮存金;二是浮存金的成本;三是最要紧的一条,这两者的长期前景。

Our main business ¾ though we have others of great importance ¾ is insurance. To understand Berkshire, therefore, it is necessary that you understand how to evaluate an insurance company. The key determinants are: (1) the amount of float that the business generates; (2) its cost; and (3) most critical of all, the long-term outlook for both of these factors.

先说浮存金,它是我们握在手里、却并不归我们所有的钱。保险业务之所以会有浮存金,是因为保费先收进来,赔付则要滞后,二者之间的间隔有时长达数年。在此期间,保险公司用这笔钱去投资。这桩美事往往也有另一面:保险公司收到的保费,通常盖不住它最终要赔付的损失和开支,于是便有了“承保亏损”——这就是浮存金的成本。如果一家保险公司长期取得浮存金的成本,低于它另行筹资所要付出的代价,这门生意就有价值;可要是浮存金的成本高过市场资金利率,这门生意就成了赔钱货。

To begin with, float is money we hold but don't own. In an insurance operation, float arises because premiums are received before losses are paid, an interval that sometimes extends over many years. During that time, the insurer invests the money. This pleasant activity typically carries with it a downside: The premiums that an insurer takes in usually do not cover the losses and expenses it eventually must pay. That leaves it running an "underwriting loss," which is the cost of float. An insurance business has value if its cost of float over time is less than the cost the company would otherwise incur to obtain funds. But the business is a lemon if its cost of float is higher than market rates for money.

从历史看,伯克希尔取得浮存金的成本一向很低。事实上,在我们经营的年头里,约有一半年份成本低于零——也就是说,我们不但白用别人的钱,还倒收了一笔报酬。可最近几年,我们的成本偏高,2001 年更是糟糕透顶。

Historically, Berkshire has obtained its float at a very low cost. Indeed, our cost has been less than zero in about half of the years in which we've operated; that is, we've actually been paid for holding other people's money. Over the last few years, however, our cost has been too high, and in 2001 it was terrible.

下表分时点列出了伯克希尔各保险板块自 35 年前收购国民赔偿公司、进军保险业以来所产生的浮存金(国民赔偿的传统业务归入“其他主险”板块)。相对于保费规模,我们的浮存金数额可观;它的算法是:把净损失准备金、损失理算准备金、承接再保险项下持有的资金和未到期保费准备金相加,再减去与保险相关的应收款、预付的取得成本、预付税款以及承接再保险的递延费用。(听明白了吗?)

The table that follows shows (at intervals) the float generated by the various segments of Berkshire's insurance operations since we entered the business 35 years ago upon acquiring National Indemnity Company (whose traditional lines are included in the segment "Other Primary"). For the table we have calculated our float ¾ which we generate in large amounts relative to our premium volume ¾ by adding net loss reserves, loss adjustment reserves, funds held under reinsurance assumed and unearned premium reserves, and then subtracting insurance-related receivables, prepaid acquisition costs, prepaid taxes and deferred charges applicable to assumed reinsurance. (Got that?)

年末浮存金(单位:百万美元)

Yearend Float (in $ millions)

年份

Year

GEICO

GEICO

通用再保险(General Re)

General Re

其他再保险

Other Reinsurance

其他基本险

Other Primary

合计

Total

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

1967
20
20
1977
40
131
171
1987
701
807
1,508
1997
2,917
4,014
455
7,386
1998
3,125
14,909
4,305
415
22,754
1999
3,444
15,166
6,285
403
25,298
2000
3,943
15,525
7,805
598
27,871
2001
4,251
19,310
11,262
685
35,508
1967
20
20
1977
40
131
171
1987
701
807
1,508
1997
2,917
4,014
455
7,386
1998
3,125
14,909
4,305
415
22,754
1999
3,444
15,166
6,285
403
25,298
2000
3,943
15,525
7,805
598
27,871
2001
4,251
19,310
11,262
685
35,508

去年我告诉过各位,除非发生特大巨灾,我们的浮存金成本很可能从 2000 年的 6% 降下来。说这话时,我想到的是自然灾害,不料我们却在 9 月 11 日遭遇了一场人为灾难——

Last year I told you that, barring a mega-catastrophe, our cost of float would probably drop from its 2000 level of 6%. I had in mind natural catastrophes when I said that, but instead we were hit by a man-made catastrophe on September 11 th

——这场灾难给整个保险业带来了有史以来最大的一笔损失。我们的浮存金成本因此飙升至惊人的 12.8%,是自 1984 年以来最糟的一年,而正如我将在下一节解释的,这个结果在很大程度上是我们自己造成的。

¾ an event that delivered the insurance industry its largest loss in history. Our float cost therefore came in at a staggering 12.8%. It was our worst year in float cost since 1984, and a result that to a significant degree, as I will explain in the next section, we brought upon ourselves.

若不再遇特大巨灾,我——再次——预计来年我们的浮存金成本会很低。我们确实需要低成本,所有保险公司都是如此。若干年前,比如 4% 的浮存金成本尚且可以接受,因为那时国债收益率是它的两倍,股票的预期回报更高。如今,丰厚的回报已无处可寻(至少我们找不到),短期资金收益率还不到 2%。在这种环境下,除一项业务外,我们旗下每家保险公司都必须做出承保利润,才算得上一门好生意。唯一的例外是追溯再保险业务(去年年报里我们已解释过),它虽然眼下每年给我们带来约 4.25 亿美元的承保亏损,其经济效益却仍具吸引力。

If no mega-catastrophe occurs, I ¾ once again ¾ expect the cost of our float to be low in the coming year. We will indeed need a low cost, as will all insurers. Some years back, float costing, say, 4% was tolerable because government bonds yielded twice as much, and stocks prospectively offered still loftier returns. Today, fat returns are nowhere to be found (at least we can't find them) and short-term funds earn less than 2%. Under these conditions, each of our insurance operations, save one, must deliver an underwriting profit if it is to be judged a good business. The exception is our retroactive reinsurance operation (a business we explained in last year's annual report), which has desirable economics even though it currently hits us with an annual underwriting loss of about $425 million.

保险承保原则

Principles of Insurance Underwriting

若以浮存金成本来评判,财产/意外险公司里称得上好生意的寥寥无几。有意思的是——与许多其他行业普遍的情况不同——决定一家保险公司盈利能力的既不是规模也不是品牌。事实上,不少规模最大、名气最响的公司,业绩却常年平平。这一行真正要紧的是承保纪律。赢家无一例外,都始终恪守三条关键原则:

When property/casualty companies are judged by their cost of float, very few stack up as satisfactory businesses. And interestingly ¾ unlike the situation prevailing in many other industries ¾ neither size nor brand name determines an insurer's profitability. Indeed, many of the biggest and best-known companies regularly deliver mediocre results. What counts in this business is underwriting discipline. The winners are those that unfailingly stick to three key principles:

其一,只承接自己能够准确评估的风险(守在能力圈内),且在权衡过所有相关因素——包括那些小概率的损失情形——之后,仍有盈利可期。这类保险公司不理会市场份额考量,眼看竞争对手报出荒唐的价格或保单条款把生意抢走,也能泰然处之。

They accept only those risks that they are able to properly evaluate (staying within their circle of competence) and that, after they have evaluated all relevant factors including remote loss scenarios, carry the expectancy of profit. These insurers ignore market-share considerations and are sanguine about losing business to competitors that are offering foolish prices or policy conditions.

其二,以某种方式约束自己承接的业务,确保不会因单一事件或关联事件群造成的损失叠加而危及偿付能力。它们孜孜不倦地在看似毫不相干的风险之间,寻找可能潜藏的关联。

They limit the business they accept in a manner that guarantees they will suffer no aggregation of losses from a single event or from related events that will threaten their solvency. They ceaselessly search for possible correlation among seemingly-unrelated risks.

其三,避开涉及道德风险的业务:费率再高也没用,想跟坏人签好合同,行不通。绝大多数投保人和客户都正派守信,可一旦跟那少数例外者打交道,代价往往高昂,有时贵得离谱。

They avoid business involving moral risk: No matter what the rate, trying to write good contracts with bad people doesn't work. While most policyholders and clients are honorable and ethical, doing business with the few exceptions is usually expensive, sometimes extraordinarily so.

9 月 11 日的事件明白无误地表明,我们在通用再保险执行第一、第二条原则时,一直薄弱得危险。无论是定价还是评估累积风险,面对大规模恐怖袭击可能造成的损失,我们要么没看到,要么不当回事。这本是一个相关的承保因素,我们却视而不见。

The events of September 11 th made it clear that our implementation of rules 1 and 2 at General Re had been dangerously weak. In setting prices and also in evaluating aggregation risk, we had either overlooked or dismissed the possibility of large-scale terrorism losses. That was a relevant underwriting factor, and we ignored it.

比如给财产险定价时,我们只回顾过去,只考虑了可能由风灾、火灾、爆炸和地震造成的损失。可这场将成为史上最大财产险损失的事件(加上相关的营业中断索赔后),偏偏并非由这几类因素引发。简而言之,我们整个行业都犯了一个根本性的承保错误:只关注历史经验,而不去审视实际的风险敞口,结果在未收取任何保费的情况下,承担了巨大的恐怖袭击风险。

In pricing property coverages, for example, we had looked to the past and taken into account only costs we might expect to incur from windstorm, fire, explosion and earthquake. But what will be the largest insured property loss in history (after adding related business-interruption claims) originated from none of these forces. In short, all of us in the industry made a fundamental underwriting mistake by focusing on experience, rather than exposure, thereby assuming a huge terrorism risk for which we received no premium.

当然,在承保多数险种时,历史经验是极为有用的起点。例如,承保加州地震险的保险公司很有必要知道,过去一个世纪该州发生过多少次里氏 6.0 级以上的地震。这一信息不会告诉你明年大震的确切概率,也不会告诉你震在何处,但它确有参考价值——尤其当你像国民赔偿公司(National Indemnity)近年那样,承保一份覆盖全州的巨额保单时。

Experience, of course, is a highly useful starting point in underwriting most coverages. For example, it's important for insurers writing California earthquake policies to know how many quakes in the state during the past century have registered 6.0 or greater on the Richter scale. This information will not tell you the exact probability of a big quake next year, or where in the state it might happen. But the statistic has utility, particularly if you are writing a huge statewide policy, as National Indemnity has done in recent years.

然而在某些时候,拿历史经验来指导定价不仅无用,反而危险。例如在牛市后期,董事及高管责任险(简称“D&O”)出大额索赔的情形往往相对罕见。股价上涨时,可供起诉的靶子稀少,可疑的会计处理和管理层诡计也常常无人察觉。在那个节骨眼上,高限额 D&O 保单的历史赔付数据也许好看得很。

At certain times, however, using experience as a guide to pricing is not only useless, but actually dangerous. Late in a bull market, for example, large losses from directors and officers liability insurance ("D&O") are likely to be relatively rare. When stocks are rising, there are a scarcity of targets to sue, and both questionable accounting and management chicanery often go undetected. At that juncture, experience on high-limit D&O may look great.

可就在此时,风险敞口很可能正在爆炸式膨胀,其表现形式包括荒唐的证券公开发行、盈余操纵、传销式的股票吹捧,以及形形色色见不得光的勾当。等股价一跌,这些罪孽便会浮出水面,让投资者蒙受可能高达数千亿美元计的损失。至于这些损失该由小投资者还是大保险公司来扛,陪审团的裁决恐怕会与牛市时截然不同,动辄让保险公司吃下天价判罚。更何况,只要出一笔巨额判决,后续案件的和解成本便会随之暴涨。因此,D&O“超额”部分(即保险人或再保险人赔付超出某一高额起赔线的损失)若基于风险敞口来定,合理费率很可能应是按历史赔付经验定价的五倍甚至更高。

But that's just when exposure is likely to be exploding, by way of ridiculous public offerings, earnings manipulation, chain-letter-like stock promotions and a potpourri of other unsavory activities. When stocks fall, these sins surface, hammering investors with losses that can run into the hundreds of billions. Juries deciding whether those losses should be borne by small investors or big insurance companies can be expected to hit insurers with verdicts that bear little relation to those delivered in bull-market days. Even one jumbo judgment, moreover, can cause settlement costs in later cases to mushroom. Consequently, the correct rate for D&O "excess" (meaning the insurer or reinsurer will pay losses above a high threshold) might well, if based on exposure , be five or more times the premium dictated by experience .

保险公司向来都清楚,无视新的风险敞口代价不菲。然而,若是在恐怖袭击这件事上如此,简直能让整个行业破产。今年某座大都市发生一次核爆炸的概率,没人算得出(更别说多次爆炸——须知能造出一枚核弹的恐怖组织,未必肯就此收手)。同样,今年或往后哪一年,致命的生化制剂被同时投入(比如通过通风系统)多栋写字楼和工厂的概率,也无人能有把握地估量。这样一场袭击,将激起天文数字般的工伤保险索赔。

Insurers have always found it costly to ignore new exposures. Doing that in the case of terrorism, however, could literally bankrupt the industry. No one knows the probability of a nuclear detonation in a major metropolis this year (or even multiple detonations, given that a terrorist organization able to construct one bomb might not stop there). Nor can anyone, with assurance, assess the probability in this year, or another, of deadly biological or chemical agents being introduced simultaneously (say, through ventilation systems) into multiple office buildings and manufacturing plants. An attack like that would produce astronomical workers' compensation claims.

以下是我们确知的事:

Here's what we do know:

这类骇人听闻的灾难,眼下概率或许极低,却并非为零。

The probability of such mind-boggling disasters, though likely very low at present, is not zero.

随着知识和材料落入那些心怀敌意者之手,这些概率正以一种不规则、难以度量的方式上升。恐惧或许会随时间淡去,危险却不会——反恐这场仗永远打不赢。这个国家所能指望的最好结果,不过是一连串漫长的僵持。面对九头蛇般此起彼伏的敌人,永远无法将其将死。

The probabilities are increasing, in an irregular and immeasurable manner, as knowledge and materials become available to those who wish us ill. Fear may recede with time, but the danger won't ¾ the war against terrorism can never be won. The best the nation can achieve is a long succession of stalemates. There can be no checkmate against hydra-headed foes.

迄今为止,保险人和再保险人对我上面所说的这些根本无从估量的风险及其财务后果,一直大大咧咧地照单全收。

Until now, insurers and reinsurers have blithely assumed the financial consequences from the incalculable risks I have described.

在一种“接近最坏”的情形下——可以想见,损失可能高达 1 万亿美元——保险业除非设法大幅收缩自己所承担的恐怖袭击风险,否则将毁于一旦。唯有美国政府才拥有足以承受这般重创的资源。倘若政府不肯事先兜底,那么普通民众就只能自担风险,指望灾难过后政府出手相救。

Under a "close-to-worst-case" scenario, which could conceivably involve $1 trillion of damage, the insurance industry would be destroyed unless it manages in some manner to dramatically limit its assumption of terrorism risks. Only the U.S. Government has the resources to absorb such a blow. If it is unwilling to do so on a prospective basis, the general citizenry must bear its own risks and count on the Government to come to its rescue after a disaster occurs.

你也许会问:9 月 11 日之前,我为何没认清上述这些?可悲的答案是:我确实认清了——但没能把想法化为行动。我违背了诺亚法则:预报下雨算不得什么,造出方舟才算数。结果,我任由伯克希尔在危险的风险水平上运转——在通用再保险尤其如此。我很遗憾地说,账上仍压着大量我们并未获得相应回报的风险,好在它正逐日消减。

Why, you might ask, didn't I recognize the above facts before September 11 th ? The answer, sadly, is that I did ¾ but I didn't convert thought into action. I violated the Noah rule: Predicting rain doesn't count; building arks does. I consequently let Berkshire operate with a dangerous level of risk ¾ at General Re in particular. I'm sorry to say that much risk for which we haven't been compensated remains on our books, but it is running off by the day.

需要说明的是,多年来,伯克希尔一直甘愿承担比任何一家保险公司主动承接的都更大的风险,如今依然如此。只要我们为承担引发损失的风险收取了合理对价,就完全愿意在单一事件中损失 20 亿到 25 亿美元(正如 9 月 11 日那样)——而在那一次事件上,我们并未收到合理的对价。

At Berkshire, it should be noted, we have for some years been willing to assume more risk than any other insurer has knowingly taken on. That's still the case. We are perfectly willing to lose $2 billion to $2½ billion in a single event (as we did on September 11 th ) if we have been paid properly for assuming the risk that caused the loss (which on that occasion we weren't).

事实上,正因容得下巨额损失,我们才握有一大竞争优势。伯克希尔坐拥充裕的流动性资产、可观的非保险业务利润、有利的税务地位,还有一批明白事理、愿意承受盈利波动的股东。这套独一无二的组合,使我们敢于承接的风险,远超哪怕是最大竞争对手的胃口。长远看,承保这些超大额风险应当有利可图,尽管它们时不时会带来一个惨淡的年头。

Indeed, we have a major competitive advantage because of our tolerance for huge losses. Berkshire has massive liquid resources, substantial non-insurance earnings, a favorable tax position and a knowledgeable shareholder constituency willing to accept volatility in earnings. This unique combination enables us to assume risks that far exceed the appetite of even our largest competitors. Over time, insuring these jumbo risks should be profitable, though periodically they will bring on a terrible year.

如今的底线是:我们会承接一部分与恐怖袭击相关的损失赔偿,包括少数几张限额极高且彼此不相关的保单。但我们绝不会明知故犯,让伯克希尔暴露在超出自身从容承受能力的损失之下。无论竞争对手怎么做,我们都会把住总敞口不放。

The bottom-line today is that we will write some coverage for terrorist-related losses, including a few non-correlated policies with very large limits. But we will not knowingly expose Berkshire to losses beyond what we can comfortably handle. We will control our total exposure, no matter what the competition does.

2001 年的保险业务

Insurance Operations in 2001

多年以来,我们的保险业务源源不断地提供低成本资金,驱动了伯克希尔的大部分增长。查理和我相信,这一局面仍将持续。但 2001 年我们栽了个大跟头,主因在于通用再保险的承保亏损。

Over the years, our insurance business has provided ever-growing, low-cost funds that have fueled much of Berkshire's growth. Charlie and I believe this will continue to be the case. But we stumbled in a big way in 2001, largely because of underwriting losses at General Re.

过去我曾向各位保证,通用再保险承保有纪律——事实证明我错了。尽管其管理层本意良好,这家公司却把我上一节列出的三条承保原则逐条违背,并为此付出了沉重代价。一个显而易见的败因是准备金计提不当(下一节细说),以致严重误算了所售产品的成本。任何生意里,搞不清成本都会惹祸;而在长尾再保险这门生意里,长年浑然不觉会助长并拖长严重的定价过低问题,对真实成本的无知,无异于引爆一包炸药。

In the past I have assured you that General Re was underwriting with discipline ¾ and I have been proven wrong. Though its managers' intentions were good, the company broke each of the three underwriting rules I set forth in the last section and has paid a huge price for doing so. One obvious cause for its failure is that it did not reserve correctly ¾ more about this in the next section ¾ and therefore severely miscalculated the cost of the product it was selling. Not knowing your costs will cause problems in any business. In long-tail reinsurance, where years of unawareness will promote and prolong severe underpricing, ignorance of true costs is dynamite.

此外,通用再保险在争抢和维持业务上过于争强好胜。尽管相关各方或许都本意审慎承保,但要能干、进取的专业人士按捺住压倒对手的冲动,终究不是易事。然而,一旦把“赢”等同于市场份额而非利润,麻烦就在前头等着。“不”这个字,必须成为每位承保人词典里的常备词。

Additionally, General Re was overly-competitive in going after, and retaining, business. While all concerned may intend to underwrite with care, it is nonetheless difficult for able, hard-driving professionals to curb their urge to prevail over competitors. If "winning," however, is equated with market share rather than profits, trouble awaits. "No" must be an important part of any underwriter's vocabulary.

不避讳被说成盲目乐观,我现在向各位保证:通用再保险(连同其科隆再保险子公司)正以应有的紧迫感重整承保纪律。乔·布兰登(Joe Brandon)9 月出任通用再保险首席执行官,与新任总裁塔德·蒙特罗斯(Tad Montross)一道,立志创造承保利润。去年秋天,查理和我读了杰克·韦尔奇(Jack Welch)那本精彩的书——《杰克·韦尔奇自传》(Jack, Straight from the Gut)(劝你也弄一本!)。聊起此书时,我们一致觉得乔身上有许多韦尔奇的特质:聪明、精力充沛、亲力亲为,对自己和所在组织都要求极高。

At the risk of sounding Pollyannaish, I now assure you that underwriting discipline is being restored at General Re (and its Cologne Re subsidiary) with appropriate urgency. Joe Brandon was appointed General Re's CEO in September and, along with Tad Montross, its new president, is committed to producing underwriting profits. Last fall, Charlie and I read Jack Welch's terrific book, Jack, Straight from the Gut (get a copy!). In discussing it, we agreed that Joe has many of Jack's characteristics: He is smart, energetic, hands-on, and expects much of both himself and his organization.

当年还是独立公司时,通用再保险就常常光彩夺目;如今又添了伯克希尔带来的雄厚实力。有了这份助力,加上承保纪律重整,通用再保险理应成为伯克希尔的一大资产。我断言,乔和塔德会让它如愿。

When it was an independent company, General Re often shone, and now it also has the considerable strengths Berkshire brings to the table. With that added advantage and with underwriting discipline restored, General Re should be a huge asset for Berkshire. I predict that Joe and Tad will make it so.

  • * * * * * * * * * * *
  • * * * * * * * * * * *

在国民赔偿公司的再保险业务里,阿吉特·贾恩仍在为伯克希尔源源不断地创造巨大价值。手下只有 18 名伙计,阿吉特却打理着一门按资产计位居全球最大之列、按单笔承保风险计更是全球第一的再保险生意。

At the National Indemnity reinsurance operation, Ajit Jain continues to add enormous value to Berkshire. Working with only 18 associates, Ajit manages one of the world's largest reinsurance operations measured by assets, and the largest, based upon the size of individual risks assumed.

自 1986 年阿吉特加入以来,几乎他承保的每一份保单细节我都了如指掌,却从未有过哪怕一次,见他破了我们那三条承保原则。他非凡的纪律当然消灭不了损失,却能杜绝愚蠢的损失。而这正是要害所在:一如投资,保险公司要交出出色的长期成绩,主要靠躲开蠢招,而非频出妙手。

I have known the details of almost every policy that Ajit has written since he came with us in 1986, and never on even a single occasion have I seen him break any of our three underwriting rules. His extraordinary discipline, of course, does not eliminate losses; it does, however, prevent foolish losses. And that's the key: Just as is the case in investing, insurers produce outstanding long-term results primarily by avoiding dumb decisions, rather than by making brilliant ones.

9·11 事件以来,阿吉特格外忙碌。在我们完全自留、全部记在自家账上的保单中,包括:(1)为一家南美炼油厂承保 5.78 亿美元财产险,损失超过 10 亿美元后方启动赔付;(2)为几家大型国际航空公司承保 10 亿美元不可撤销的第三方责任险,涵盖恐怖主义行为所致损失;(3)为一座大型北海石油平台承保 5 亿英镑财产险,涵盖恐怖主义和蓄意破坏所致损失,起赔点为投保人自留或向其他方分保的 6 亿英镑以上部分;(4)为西尔斯大厦承保重大保障,涵盖恐怖主义所致损失,起赔点为 5 亿美元。我们还承接了许多其他超大风险,例如为世界杯足球赛和 2002 年冬奥会提供保障。不过,在所有情况下,我们都力求避免承接可能发生严重损失叠加的保单组合。举例而言,我们不会在同一座大都市为大量写字楼和公寓大厦承保,除非把核爆炸及其引发的火灾损失一并排除在外。

<<<END P 4>>>

Since September 11 th , Ajit has been particularly busy. Among the policies we have written and retained entirely for our own account are (1) $578 million of property coverage for a South American refinery once a loss there exceeds $1 billion; (2) $1 billion of non-cancelable third-party liability coverage for losses arising from acts of terrorism at several large international airlines; (3) £500 million of property coverage on a large North Sea oil platform, covering losses from terrorism and sabotage, above £600 million that the insured retained or reinsured elsewhere; and (4) significant coverage on the Sears Tower, including losses caused by terrorism, above a $500 million threshold. We have written many other jumbo risks as well, such as protection for the World Cup Soccer Tournament and the 2002 Winter Olympics. In all cases, however, we have attempted to avoid writing groups of policies from which losses might seriously aggregate. We will not, for example, write coverages on a large number of office and apartment towers in a single metropolis without excluding losses from both a nuclear explosion and the fires that would follow it.

论开出巨额保单的速度,无人及得上阿吉特。9 月 11 日之后,他一向可贵的快速反应,更成了一大竞争优势;我们无与伦比的财务实力同样如此。有些再保险人——尤其是那些惯于把大部分业务再转手给第二层再保险人(即转分保接受人)的公司——已元气大伤,再来一场巨灾便难以为继。当转分保结成一条环环相扣的链条时,一个薄弱环节就足以拖累全体。因此,评估自身再保险保障是否稳健时,保险公司必须对链条上的每一环做压力测试,还要设想灾难恰逢经济极其低迷时降临。毕竟,退潮之后,才知道谁在裸泳。在伯克希尔,我们自留风险,不仰赖任何人。无论世界出什么乱子,我们开出的支票都能兑现。

No one can match the speed with which Ajit can offer huge policies. After September 11 th , his quickness to respond, always important, has become a major competitive advantage. So, too, has our unsurpassed financial strength. Some reinsurers ¾ particularly those who, in turn, are accustomed to laying off much of their business on a second layer of reinsurers known as retrocessionaires ¾ are in a weakened condition and would have difficulty surviving a second mega-cat. When a daisy chain of retrocessionaires exists, a single weak link can pose trouble for all. In assessing the soundness of their reinsurance protection, insurers must therefore apply a stress test to all participants in the chain, and must contemplate a catastrophe loss occurring during a very unfavorable economic environment. After all, you only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out. At Berkshire, we retain our risks and depend on no one. And whatever the world's problems, our checks will clear.

阿吉特的业务会有起有落——但他的承保原则绝不动摇。他对伯克希尔的价值,怎么说都不为过。

Ajit's business will ebb and flow ¾ but his underwriting principles won't waver. It's impossible to overstate his value to Berkshire.

  • * * * * * * * * * * *
  • * * * * * * * * * * *

GEICO 是我们迄今为止最大的直接保险公司,2001 年取得长足进步,这要归功于首席执行官托尼·尼斯利和他的同事们。简单说,托尼是所有者做梦都想要的那种人。

GEICO, by far our largest primary insurer, made major progress in 2001, thanks to Tony Nicely, its CEO, and his associates. Quite simply, Tony is an owner's dream.

GEICO 去年保费收入增长 6.6%,浮存金增加 3.08 亿美元,还做出了 2.21 亿美元的承保利润。换句话说,去年我们持有那 42.5 亿美元浮存金,非但不用付钱,反倒净收了这么一笔;这笔钱当然不归伯克希尔所有,却可供我们投资。

GEICO's premium volume grew 6.6% last year, its float grew $308 million, and it achieved an underwriting profit of $221 million. This means we were actually paid that amount last year to hold the $4.25 billion in float, which of course doesn't belong to Berkshire but can be used by us for investment.

2001 年 GEICO 唯一的憾事——而且是件大事——是我们未能增加保单数。优选客户(占总数的 81%)增长了 1.6%,标准及非标准保单却下滑了 10.1%。总体算下来,有效保单数减少了 0.8%。

The only disappointment at GEICO in 2001 ¾ and it's an important one ¾ was our inability to add policyholders. Our preferred customers (81% of our total) grew by 1.6% but our standard and non-standard policies fell by 10.1%. Overall, policies in force fell .8%.

近几个月,新业务有所回暖:电话咨询的成交率在攀升,网络业务也稳步增长。因此,我们预计 2002 年保单数至少会小幅增加。托尼和我都巴不得把营销投入提到远高于去年 2.19 亿美元的水平,可眼下我们还想不出怎样投才有效。与此同时,我们的运营成本很低,远在主要对手之下;价格有吸引力;浮存金则零成本,还在增长。

New business has improved in recent months. Our closure rate from telephone inquiries has climbed, and our Internet business continues its steady growth. We, therefore, expect at least a modest gain in policy count during 2002. Tony and I are eager to commit much more to marketing than the $219 million we spent last year, but at the moment we cannot see how to do so effectively. In the meantime, our operating costs are low and far below those of our major competitors; our prices are attractive; and our float is cost-free and growing.

  • * * * * * * * * * * *
  • * * * * * * * * * * *

我们其他几家直接保险公司去年也一如既往地交出了亮眼成绩。这些业务由罗德·埃尔德雷德、约翰·凯泽、汤姆·纳尼、迈克尔·斯特恩斯、唐·托尔和唐·沃斯特分头掌管,保费收入合计 5.79 亿美元,比 2000 年增长 40%;浮存金增长 14.5%,达 6.85 亿美元;承保利润 3000 万美元。合起来看,它们是全美最出色的保险业务之一,2002 年的前景相当看好。

Our other primary insurers delivered their usual fine results last year. These operations, run by Rod Eldred, John Kizer, Tom Nerney, Michael Stearns, Don Towle and Don Wurster had combined premium volume of $579 million, up 40% over 2000. Their float increased 14.5% to $685 million, and they recorded an underwriting profit of $30 million. In aggregate, these companies are one of the finest insurance operations in the country, and their 2002 prospects look excellent.

“损失进展”与保险会计

"Loss Development" and Insurance Accounting

糟糕的术语是清晰思考的天敌。公司或投资专业人士一旦抛出“EBITDA”“预估口径”这类词,就是想让你不假思索地接受某些危险而站不住脚的概念。(打高尔夫时,我的成绩按“预估口径”常常低于标准杆:我有一个铁定的计划要“重组”推杆动作,所以只算上果岭之前的挥杆次数。)

Bad terminology is the enemy of good thinking. When companies or investment professionals use terms such as "EBITDA" and "pro forma," they want you to unthinkingly accept concepts that are dangerously flawed. (In golf, my score is frequently below par on a pro forma basis: I have firm plans to "restructure" my putting stroke and therefore only count the swings I take before reaching the green.)

在保险报表里,“损失进展”是个用得很广的术语——也是一个严重误导人的术语。先下个定义:保险公司的损失准备金不是备着以防万一的一笔钱,而是一个负债科目。若计算得当,它应反映保险公司为报告日之前已发生、但尚未赔付的全部损失(含相关费用)所需支付的金额。计提准备金时,保险公司已获知其中许多注定要赔的损失,另一些却还没报到它这里。这类损失叫 IBNR,即“已发生但未报告”。事实上,某些情形下(比如涉及产品责任或侵吞挪用),连投保人自己都还不知道损失已经发生。

In insurance reporting, "loss development" is a widely used term ¾ and one that is seriously misleading. First, a definition: Loss reserves at an insurer are not funds tucked away for a rainy day, but rather a liability account. If properly calculated, the liability states the amount that an insurer will have to pay for all losses (including associated costs) that have occurred prior to the reporting date but have not yet been paid. When calculating the reserve, the insurer will have been notified of many of the losses it is destined to pay, but others will not yet have been reported to it. These losses are called IBNR, for incurred but not reported. Indeed, in some cases (involving, say, product liability or embezzlement) the insured itself will not yet be aware that a loss has occurred.

要为所有这些已报告和未报告事件的最终成本定出一个数字,对保险公司而言显然不易。但能做到八九不离十,却至关重要。否则,管理层根本弄不清自己实际的损失成本几何,也不知道它与所收保费孰高孰低。GEICO 在 20 世纪 70 年代初就栽过大跟头:接连数年严重少提准备金,于是误以为自家产品(保险保障)的成本远低于实情。结果,公司一路懵懵懂懂地把产品越卖越便宜、保单越签越多,亏损也越滚越大。

It's clearly difficult for an insurer to put a figure on the ultimate cost of all such reported and unreported events. But the ability to do so with reasonable accuracy is vital. Otherwise the insurer's managers won't know what its actual loss costs are and how these compare to the premiums being charged. GEICO got into huge trouble in the early 1970s because for several years it severely underreserved, and therefore believed its product (insurance protection) was costing considerably less than was truly the case. Consequently, the company sailed blissfully along, underpricing its product and selling more and more policies at ever-larger losses.

一旦发现过往报告日的准备金低估了当时真实存在的负债,公司便称之为“损失进展”。在发现问题的那一年,这些缺口会拖累账面利润,因为算账时,须把前几年的“补提”成本并入当年成本。2001 年通用再保险正是如此:一笔骇人的 8 亿美元损失成本,实际发生在更早的年份,当时却未曾入账,直到去年才姗姗确认,冲减了当期利润。我可以向各位保证,这个错误并非有意。但一连数年,这种少提准备金让我们误以为成本比实情低得多,进而导致定价严重不足。不仅如此,被夸大的利润数字还害我们多付了本不该付的巨额奖金,也让我们比原本需要的时间早得多地缴了所得税。

When it becomes evident that reserves at past reporting dates understated the liability that truly existed at the time, companies speak of "loss development." In the year discovered, these shortfalls penalize reported earnings because the "catch-up" costs from prior years must be added to current-year costs when results are calculated. This is what happened at General Re in 2001: a staggering $800 million of loss costs that actually occurred in earlier years, but that were not then recorded, were belatedly recognized last year and charged against current earnings. The mistake was an honest one, I can assure you of that. Nevertheless, for several years, this underreserving caused us to believe that our costs were much lower than they truly were, an error that contributed to woefully inadequate pricing. Additionally, the overstated profit figures led us to pay substantial incentive compensation that we should not have and to incur income taxes far earlier than was necessary.

我们建议废掉“损失进展”这个词,连同它那同样丑陋的孪生兄弟“准备金增提”。(你能想象一家保险公司发现准备金提多了,会把随后的下调称作“准备金减弱”吗?)“损失进展”给投资者的暗示是:当年发生了某种自然、不可控的变故;“准备金增提”则暗示本已充足的数额又进一步加固。可真相是:管理层估算失误,进而使先前报出的利润有误。损失并没有“进展”——它们自始至终就在那里。真正在“进展”的,是管理层对损失的认识(若涉及舞弊,则是管理层终于肯坦白的意愿)。

We recommend scrapping the term "loss development" and its equally ugly twin, "reserve strengthening." (Can you imagine an insurer, upon finding its reserves excessive, describing the reduction that follows as "reserve weakening"?) "Loss development" suggests to investors that some natural, uncontrollable event has occurred in the current year, and "reserve strengthening" implies that adequate amounts have been further buttressed. The truth, however, is that management made an error in estimation that in turn produced an error in the earnings previously reported. The losses didn't "develop" ¾ they were there all along. What developed was management's understanding of the losses (or, in the instances of chicanery, management's willingness to finally fess up).

对这桩事,更直白的叫法应是“我们在损失发生时未能确认的成本”(或者干脆叫一声“糟糕”)。要说明的是,少提准备金在整个财产/意外险行业既普遍又严重。伯克希尔自己在 1984 年和 1986 年也向各位坦承过低估的毛病。但总体而言,我们计提准备金一向偏保守。

A more forthright label for the phenomenon at issue would be "loss costs we failed to recognize when they occurred" (or maybe just "oops"). Underreserving, it should be noted, is a common ¾ and serious ¾ problem throughout the property/casualty insurance industry. At Berkshire we told you of our own problems with underestimation in 1984 and 1986. Generally, however, our reserving has been conservative.

严重少提准备金,在苦苦挣扎求存的公司里屡见不鲜。说白了,保险会计好比一场自评的考试:保险公司把一些数字交给审计事务所,通常不会遭到质疑。(可审计师换来的,是管理层一封信——这封信的用意,是等日后数字露了怯,好让事务所脱身。)一家陷入财务困境、若如实面对便可能关门大吉的公司,很少会当个严格的判卷人。毕竟,谁会情愿给自己签下处决令呢?

Major underreserving is common in cases of companies struggling for survival. In effect, insurance accounting is a self-graded exam, in that the insurer gives some figures to its auditing firm and generally doesn't get an argument. (What the auditor gets, however, is a letter from management that is designed to take his firm off the hook if the numbers later look silly.) A company experiencing financial difficulties ¾ of a kind that, if truly faced, could put it out of business ¾ seldom proves to be a tough grader. Who, after all, wants to prepare his own execution papers?

即便怀着最好的用心,把准备金提得恰到好处也非易事。我从前讲过一个故事:有个人旅居国外,姐姐来电告诉他父亲过世了。弟弟说自己实在赶不回去奔丧,但主动提出承担丧葬费用。回国后,他收到殡仪馆一张 4500 美元的账单,当即付清。一个月后,又过一个月,他分别收到 10 美元的追加账单。等第三张 10 美元账单寄来,他打电话找姐姐问个究竟。“哦,”姐姐答道,“我忘了跟你说,我们是给爸租了套西装下葬的。”

Even when companies have the best of intentions, it's not easy to reserve properly. I've told the story in the past about the fellow traveling abroad whose sister called to tell him that their dad had died. The brother replied that it was impossible for him to get home for the funeral; he volunteered, however, to shoulder its cost. Upon returning, the brother received a bill from the mortuary for $4,500, which he promptly paid. A month later, and a month after that also, he paid $10 pursuant to an add-on invoice. When a third $10 invoice came, he called his sister for an explanation. "Oh," she replied, "I forgot to tell you. We buried dad in a rented suit."

保险公司的往日经营里,就埋着许许多多“租来的西装”。它们所昭示的问题,有时会蛰伏数十年,一如石棉责任,然后才凶猛地爆发出来。这活儿再难,把一切可能性都充分入账,也是管理层的分内之责。保守至关重要。当理赔经理走进首席执行官办公室,撂下一句“你猜刚出了什么事”,老练的老板绝不会指望听到好消息。在保险这一行,意外对利润的冲击,从来都极不对称。

There are a lot of "rented suits" buried in the past operations of insurance companies. Sometimes the problems they signify lie dormant for decades, as was the case with asbestos liability, before virulently manifesting themselves. Difficult as the job may be, it's management's responsibility to adequately account for all possibilities. Conservatism is essential. When a claims manager walks into the CEO's office and says "Guess what just happened," his boss, if a veteran, does not expect to hear it's good news. Surprises in the insurance world have been far from symmetrical in their effect on earnings.

正因为这种一边倒的经历,眼下有人主张把所有财产/意外险准备金一律贴现——理由是这些赔款要到将来才支付,故其现值低于账面所列负债——这实在是荒唐。若准备金能算得分毫不差,贴现或许说得过去。可它算不准,因为有无数股力量在不断把准备金侵蚀得不够用——司法上对保单措辞的扩大解释、医疗通胀,仅是两个长期存在的例子。贴现只会给这个本已棘手的局面火上浇油,还会给那些惯于做手脚的公司递上一件新工具。

Because of this one-sided experience, it is folly to suggest, as some are doing, that all property/casualty insurance reserves be discounted , an approach reflecting the fact that they will be paid in the future and that therefore their present value is less than the stated liability for them. Discounting might be acceptable if reserves could be precisely established. They can't, however, because a myriad of forces ¾ judicial broadening of policy language and medical inflation, to name just two chronic problems ¾ are constantly working to make reserves inadequate. Discounting would exacerbate this already-serious situation and, additionally, would provide a new tool for the companies that are inclined to fudge.

要我说,怂恿一位为利润发愁的保险公司首席执行官靠贴现来压低准备金,其后果不亚于一位父亲叮嘱他 16 岁的儿子要过正常的性生活——这两边,都用不着谁来推这一把。

I'd say that the effects from telling a profit-challenged insurance CEO to lower reserves through discounting would be comparable to those that would ensue if a father told his 16-year-old son to have a normal sex life. Neither party needs that kind of push.

报告利润的来源

Sources of Reported Earnings

下表列出伯克希尔报告利润的主要来源。表中,因收购产生的会计调整(主要与“商誉”有关)没有摊到各自对应的具体业务上,而是集中另列。这样处理,各位就能看到:倘若我们从未收购这些企业,它们的利润本该是何模样。近年来,我们的商誉摊销“费用”一直不小。往后,公认会计原则(GAAP)将不再要求摊销商誉,这一变动会抬高我们的报告利润(却不会增加真实的经济利润),也让本报告的这一节清爽许多。

The table that follows shows the main sources of Berkshire's reported earnings. In this presentation, purchase-accounting adjustments (primarily relating to "goodwill") are not assigned to the specific businesses to which they apply, but are instead aggregated and shown separately. This procedure lets you view the earnings of our businesses as they would have been reported had we not purchased them. In recent years, our "expense" for goodwill amortization has been large. Going forward, generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP") will no longer require amortization of goodwill. This change will increase our reported earnings (though not our true economic earnings) and simplify this section of the report.

(单位:百万美元)

(in millions)

税前利润

Pre-Tax Earnings

伯克希尔应占净利润(扣除税款及少数股东权益后)

Berkshire's Share of Net Earnings (after taxes and minority interests)

2001
2000
2001
2000
2001
2000
2001
2000

经营利润:

Operating Earnings:

保险集团:

Insurance Group:

承保——再保险

Underwriting ¾ Reinsurance

$(4,318)
$(1,416)
$(2,824)
$(911)
$(4,318)
$(1,416)
$(2,824)
$(911)

承保——GEICO

Underwriting ¾ GEICO

221
(224)
144
(146)
221
(224)
144
(146)

承保——其他主险

Underwriting ¾ Other Primary

30
25
18
16
30
25
18
16

投资净收益

Net Investment Income

2,824
2,773
1,968
1,946
2,824
2,773
1,968
1,946

建筑材料(1)

Building Products (1)

461
34
287
21
461
34
287
21

金融及金融产品业务

Finance and Financial Products Business

519
530
336
343
519
530
336
343

飞行服务

Flight Services

186
213
105
126
186
213
105
126

中美能源公司(持股 76%)

MidAmerican Energy (76% owned)

600
197
230
109
600
197
230
109

零售业务

Retail Operations

175
175
101
104
175
175
101
104

斯科特-费泽(不含金融业务)

Scott Fetzer (excluding finance operation)

129
122
83
80
129
122
83
80

肖氏工业(2)

Shaw Industries (2)

292
292

--

--

156
156

--

--

其他业务

Other Businesses

179
221
103
133
179
221
103
133

收购会计调整

Purchase-Accounting Adjustments

(726)
(881)
(699)
(843)
(726)
(881)
(699)
(843)

公司利息支出

Corporate Interest Expense

(92)
(92)
(60)
(61)
(92)
(92)
(60)
(61)

股东指定捐款

Shareholder-Designated Contributions

(17)
(17)
(11)
(11)
(17)
(17)
(11)
(11)

其他

Other

25
39
16
30
25
39
16
30

经营利润

Operating Earnings

488
1,699
(47)
936
488
1,699
(47)
936

投资资本利得

Capital Gains from Investments

1,320
3,955
842
2,392
1,320
3,955
842
2,392

利润总额——全部实体

Total Earnings ¾ All Entities

$1,808
$5,654
$ 795
$3,328
$1,808
$5,654
$ 795
$3,328

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(1)包含 Acme Brick(自 2000 年 8 月 1 日起)、Benjamin Moore(自 2000 年 12 月 18 日起)、Johns Manville(自 2001 年 2 月 27 日起)及 MiTek(自 2001 年 7 月 31 日起)。

(1) Includes Acme Brick from August 1, 2000; Benjamin Moore from December 18, 2000; Johns Manville from February 27, 2001; and MiTek from July 31, 2001.

(2)自收购之日 2001 年 1 月 8 日起。

(2) From date of acquisition, January 8, 2001.

以下是 2001 年非保险业务的几处亮点(和暗点):

Here are some highlights (and lowlights) from 2001 relating to our non-insurance activities:

我们的鞋业(计入“其他业务”)税前亏损 4620 万美元——H.H. Brown 和 Justin 的盈利,被 Dexter 的亏损全数吞没。

Our shoe operations (included in "other businesses") lost $46.2 million pre-tax, with profits at H.H. Brown and Justin swamped by losses at Dexter.

在 Dexter 这件事上,我做的三个决定让各位大伤元气:(1)当初就不该买它;(2)用股票去付账;(3)业务明摆着需要整改时,却一再拖延。我倒真想把这些错推给查理(或随便谁),可它们确实是我的错。在我们买下它之前——乃至买下之后的头几年——Dexter 尽管面对低成本外国厂商的残酷竞争,仍经营得有声有色。我断定它能继续扛住这道难题,结果我看走了眼。

I've made three decisions relating to Dexter that have hurt you in a major way: (1) buying it in the first place; (2) paying for it with stock and (3) procrastinating when the need for changes in its operations was obvious. I would like to lay these mistakes on Charlie (or anyone else, for that matter) but they were mine. Dexter, prior to our purchase ¾ and indeed for a few years after ¾ prospered despite low-cost foreign competition that was brutal. I concluded that Dexter could continue to cope with that problem, and I was wrong.

如今,我们已把 Dexter 的业务(规模依旧不小)交给 H.H. Brown 的弗兰克·鲁尼和吉姆·艾斯勒打理。这两人为伯克希尔立下过汗马功劳,把搅得制鞋业天翻地覆的种种剧变应付得游刃有余。2002 年部分时间里,Dexter 还将因去年签下的亏本销售合同而受累;此后,我们相信鞋业能有说得过去的盈利。

We have now placed the Dexter operation ¾ which is still substantial in size ¾ under the management of Frank Rooney and Jim Issler at H.H. Brown. These men have performed outstandingly for Berkshire, skillfully contending with the extraordinary changes that have bedeviled the footwear industry. During part of 2002, Dexter will be hurt by unprofitable sales commitments it made last year. After that, we believe our shoe business will be reasonably profitable.

我们按完全稀释口径持有 76% 股权的中美能源公司,2001 年表现不俗。由于该公司一直背着一大笔商誉摊销费用,而按新的 GAAP 规则这项“成本”即将消失,它 2002 年的报告利润也应大幅上扬。

MidAmerican Energy, of which we own 76% on a fully-diluted basis, had a good year in 2001. Its reported earnings should also increase considerably in 2002 given that the company has been shouldering a large charge for the amortization of goodwill and that this "cost" will disappear under the new GAAP rules.

去年,中美能源在英国置换了一批资产,新纳入约克郡电力公司及其 210 万用户。如今我们在英国的电力用户已达 360 万,是当地第二大电力公司。我们在爱荷华州的业务同样举足轻重,在加州和菲律宾还握有大型发电设施。

Last year MidAmerican swapped some properties in England, adding Yorkshire Electric, with its 2.1 million customers. We are now serving 3.6 million customers in the U.K. and are its 2 nd largest electric utility. We have an equally important operation in Iowa as well as major generating facilities in California and the Philippines.

在中美能源旗下——这一点或许会让你意外——我们还坐拥全美第二大的住宅房地产经纪业务。我们在多座大城市(主要在中西部)占据市场份额首位,最近又收购了亚特兰大和南加州的几家重要公司。去年,我们以各地耳熟能详的多个品牌运营,经手约 10.6 万笔交易,涉及物业价值近 200 亿美元。这门生意是罗恩·佩尔蒂埃为我们一手做起来的,他很可能会在 2002 年及往后几年继续收购。

At MidAmerican ¾ this may surprise you ¾ we also own the second-largest residential real estate brokerage business in the country. We are market-share leaders in a number of large cities, primarily in the Midwest, and have recently acquired important firms in Atlanta and Southern California. Last year, operating under various names that are locally familiar, we handled about 106,000 transactions involving properties worth nearly $20 billion. Ron Peltier has built this business for us, and it's likely he will make more acquisitions in 2002 and the years to come.

考虑到当时零售业深陷衰退,我们旗下的零售业务 2001 年算是过得去。珠宝方面,同店销售额下滑 7.6%,税前利润率从 2000 年的 10.7% 降到 8.9%;不过投入资本回报率依旧很高。

Considering the recessionary environment plaguing them, our retailing operations did well in 2001. In jewelry, same-store sales fell 7.6% and pre-tax margins were 8.9% versus 10.7% in 2000. Return on invested capital remains high.

家居零售这边,同店销售额和利润率都纹丝未动——税前 9.1%。这些业务的投入资本回报率同样出色。

Same-store sales at our home-furnishings retailers were unchanged and so was the margin ¾ 9.1% pre-tax ¾ these operations earned. Here, too, return on invested capital is excellent.

珠宝和家居两块,我们仍在扩张。尤为值得一提的是,内布拉斯加家具城正在兴建一座 45 万平方英尺的巨型卖场,从 2003 年秋起服务大堪萨斯城地区。尽管比尔·柴尔德一再反其道而行还大获成功,这家新店我们照样周日开门。

We continue to expand in both jewelry and home-furnishings. Of particular note, Nebraska Furniture Mart is constructing a mammoth 450,000 square foot store that will serve the greater Kansas City area beginning in the fall of 2003. Despite Bill Child's counter-successes, we will keep this store open on Sundays.

2000 年末我们启动的那几笔大收购——Shaw、Johns Manville 和 Benjamin Moore——加入伯克希尔的头一年都表现极佳。当初收购时查理和我就心里有数,鲍勃·肖、杰里·亨利和伊万·杜皮分别执掌这三家公司,我们尽可放心;如今更是愈发钦佩他们的手笔。三家合计做出约 6.59 亿美元的税前利润。

The large acquisitions we initiated in late 2000 ¾ Shaw, Johns Manville and Benjamin Moore ¾ all came through their first year with us in great fashion. Charlie and I knew at the time of our purchases that we were in good hands with Bob Shaw, Jerry Henry and Yvan Dupuy, respectively ¾ and we admire their work even more now. Together these businesses earned about $659 million pre-tax.

年末刚过,我们便用 4740 股伯克希尔 A 股(或等值 B 股)换来 Shaw 那 12.7% 的少数股权,如今已 100% 拥有这家公司。Shaw 是我们最大的非保险业务,将在伯克希尔的未来里挑大梁。

Shortly after yearend we exchanged 4,740 Berkshire A shares (or their equivalent in B shares) for the 12.7% minority interest in Shaw, which means we now own 100% of the company. Shaw is our largest non-insurance operation and will play a big part in Berkshire's future.

2001 年飞行服务板块的全部利润——实际还略有富余——都来自我们的飞行员培训子公司 FlightSafety。它的盈利增长了 2.5%,只是因去年我们在模拟机及其他固定资产上投入了 2.58 亿美元,投入资本回报率略有回落。我 84 岁的老友阿尔·厄尔奇仍在掌舵 FlightSafety,那股热情和好胜劲儿,与他 1951 年拿出 1 万美元创办这家公司时一模一样。要是让阿尔和一群 60 岁的人在股东大会上站成一排,你准挑不出他来。

All of the income shown for Flight Services in 2001 ¾ and a bit more ¾ came from FlightSafety, our pilot-training subsidiary. Its earnings increased 2.5%, though return on invested capital fell slightly because of the $258 million investment we made last year in simulators and other fixed assets. My 84-year-old friend, Al Ueltschi, continues to run FlightSafety with the same enthusiasm and competitive spirit that he has exhibited since 1951, when he invested $10,000 to start the company. If I line Al up with a bunch of 60-year-olds at the annual meeting, you will not be able to pick him out.

9 月 11 日之后,商用航空的培训业务下滑,至今仍旧低迷。不过我们的主业——公务及通用航空培训,已恢复到接近正常的水平,并应会继续增长。2002 年,我们打算斥资 1.62 亿美元采购 27 台模拟机,这个数目远超我们每年 9500 万美元的折旧。那些认定 EBITDA 与真实利润是一回事的人,尽可以来替我们买单。

After September 11 th , training for commercial airlines fell, and today it remains depressed. However, training for business and general aviation, our main activity, is at near-normal levels and should continue to grow. In 2002, we expect to spend $162 million for 27 simulators, a sum far in excess of our annual depreciation charge of $95 million. Those who believe that EBITDA is in any way equivalent to true earnings are welcome to pick up the tab.

我们的 NetJets® 部分产权项目去年卖出的飞机数量创下纪录,来自管理费和计时费的服务收入也增长了 21.9%。即便如此,该项目仍小亏一笔,而 2000 年是小赚。我们在美国赚了一点钱,但这些利润被欧洲的亏损抵销后还倒贴。按客户飞机的价值计算,NetJets 约占整个行业的一半。我们相信,其余参与者加总起来亏得不轻。

Our NetJets® fractional ownership program sold a record number of planes last year and also showed a gain of 21.9% in service income from management fees and hourly charges. Nevertheless, it operated at a small loss, versus a small profit in 2000. We made a little money in the U.S., but these earnings were more than offset by European losses. Measured by the value of our customers' planes, NetJets accounts for about half of the industry. We believe the other participants, in aggregate, lost significant money.

把安全、保障和服务维持在顶尖水准向来花费不菲,9 月 11 日更让坚守这些标准的成本雪上加霜。可无论代价多高,在这三个方面我们都将继续引领行业。公司首席执行官、部分产权模式的发明者里奇·桑图利,骨子里就刻着“只把最好的给客户”这份决不含糊的执着。他在这些事上的痴狂,无论为公司还是为我一家人,我都由衷高兴:我相信,巴菲特一家乘坐部分产权飞机的时长远超其他任何家庭——我们每年记录超过 800 小时。顺便说一句,我们用的飞机和机组,与服务于 NetJets 其他客户的完全一样。

Maintaining a premier level of safety, security and service was always expensive, and the cost of sticking to those standards was exacerbated by September 11 th . No matter how much the cost, we will continue to be the industry leader in all three respects. An uncompromising insistence on delivering only the best to his customers is embedded in the DNA of Rich Santulli, CEO of the company and the inventor of fractional ownership. I'm delighted with his fanaticism on these matters for both the company's sake and my family's: I believe the Buffetts fly more fractional-ownership hours ¾ we log in excess of 800 annually ¾ than does any other family. In case you're wondering, we use exactly the same planes and crews that serve NetJet's other customers.

9 月 11 日过后不久,NetJets 曾迎来一波新订单激增,此后销售节奏便回归常态。年内每位客户的使用量略有下降,多半是受经济衰退的影响。

NetJets experienced a spurt in new orders shortly after September 11 th , but its sales pace has since returned to normal. Per-customer usage declined somewhat during the year, probably because of the recession.

身为部分产权行业遥遥领先的领军者,我们和客户都因此获得了切实的运营效益。我们在美国常年有 300 多架飞机穿梭运行,因此无论客户何时何地需要,我们几乎都能随叫随到。机队无处不在,也让我们的“调机”成本低于那些机队规模更小的运营商。

Both we and our customers derive significant operational benefits from our being the runaway leader in the fractional ownership business. We have more than 300 planes constantly on the go in the U.S. and can therefore be wherever a customer needs us on very short notice. The ubiquity of our fleet also reduces our "positioning" costs below those incurred by operators with smaller fleets.

这些规模优势,加上我们拥有的其他长处,让 NetJets 相比对手具备显著的经济优势。不过,在未来几年可能延续的竞争格局下,这份优势最多也只能带来微薄的利润。

These advantages of scale, and others we have, give NetJets a significant economic edge over competition. Under the competitive conditions likely to prevail for a few years, however, our advantage will at best produce modest profits.

我们的金融及金融产品业务线,如今包括 XTRA、通用再保险证券(已进入渐退模式,且将持续相当长一段时间),以及另几项规模较小的业务。不过,这一板块的绝大部分资产和负债,来自我亲自管理的几套固定收益策略——这些策略涉及流动性极高的 AAA 级证券。这类操作只在特定市场关系存在时才有意义,过去回报不错,未来一两年也有望继续取得合理回报。

Our finance and financial products line of business now includes XTRA, General Re Securities (which is in a run-off mode that will continue for an extended period) and a few other relatively small operations. The bulk of the assets and liabilities in this segment, however, arise from a few fixed-income strategies, involving highly-liquid AAA securities, that I manage. This activity, which only makes sense when certain market relationships exist, has produced good returns in the past and has reasonable prospects for continuing to do so over the next year or two.

投资

Investments

下面列出我们的普通股投资。凡截至 2001 年底市值超过 5 亿美元的,均逐一列示。

Below we present our common stock investments. Those that had a market value of more than $500 million at the end of 2001 are itemized.

12/31/01
12/31/01

股数

Shares

公司

Company

成本

Cost

市值

Market

(单位:百万美元)

(dollars in millions)

151,610,700
151,610,700

美国运通公司

American Express Company

$ 1,470
$ 5,410
200,000,000
$ 1,470
$ 5,410
200,000,000

可口可乐公司

The Coca-Cola Company

1,299
9,430
96,000,000
1,299
9,430
96,000,000

吉列公司

The Gillette Company

600
3,206
15,999,200
600
3,206
15,999,200

H&R Block 公司

H&R Block, Inc.

255
715
24,000,000
255
715
24,000,000

穆迪公司

Moody's Corporation

499
957
1,727,765
499
957
1,727,765

《华盛顿邮报》公司

The Washington Post Company

11
916
53,265,080
11
916
53,265,080

富国银行

Wells Fargo & Company

306
2,315
306
2,315

其他

Others

4,103
5,726
4,103
5,726

普通股合计

Total Common Stocks

$8,543
$28,675
$8,543
$28,675

=====

=====

=====

=====

2001 年,我们的投资组合鲜有变动。整体来看,我们几只重仓股近几年表现颇为糟糕,部分原因在于经营业绩令人失望。这些公司的基础生意,查理和我依旧喜欢;但我们并不认为伯克希尔的股票持仓作为一个整体被低估了。

We made few changes in our portfolio during 2001. As a group, our larger holdings have performed poorly in the last few years, some because of disappointing operating results. Charlie and I still like the basic businesses of all the companies we own. But we do not believe Berkshire's equity holdings as a group are undervalued.

对这些持股,我们热情有限;而对未来十来年股市的整体前景,我们更是明显兴致寡淡。7 月,我在艾伦公司(Allen and Company)的一次会议上讲了对股票回报的看法(这是两年前一次类似演讲的续篇),讲话经删改后于 12 月 10 日发表在——

Our restrained enthusiasm for these securities is matched by decidedly lukewarm feelings about the prospects for stocks in general over the next decade or so. I expressed my views about equity returns in a speech I gave at an Allen and Company meeting in July (which was a follow-up to a similar presentation I had made two years earlier) and an edited version of my comments appeared in a December 10 th

——《财富》(Fortune)杂志的文章里。那篇文章的复印件我随信附上。我 1999 年那次演讲的《财富》版本,你也可以在我们的网站 www.berkshirehathaway.com 上看到。

Fortune article. I'm enclosing a copy of that article. You can also view the Fortune version of my 1999 talk at our website www.berkshirehathaway.com .

查理和我相信,美国企业长远来看会表现不错,但认为今天的股价所预示的,只是投资者的平平回报。市场跑赢企业已持续了很长一段时间,这种现象注定要结束。而一个至多与企业进步同步的市场,很可能让许多投资者失望,尤其是那些入场相对较晚的人。

Charlie and I believe that American business will do fine over time but think that today's equity prices presage only moderate returns for investors. The market outperformed business for a very long period, and that phenomenon had to end. A market that no more than parallels business progress, however, is likely to leave many investors disappointed, particularly those relatively new to the game.

送给爱琢磨奇妙巧合的人一则:那场大泡沫结束于 2000 年 3 月 10 日(尽管我们几个月后才意识到这一事实)。就在那一天,纳斯达克(近期报 1,731 点)摸到了 5,132 点的历史最高位;也正是那一天,伯克希尔股价成交于 40,800 美元,创下 1997 年年中以来的最低。

Here's one for those who enjoy an odd coincidence: The Great Bubble ended on March 10, 2000 (though we didn't realize that fact until some months later). On that day, the NASDAQ (recently 1,731) hit its all-time high of 5,132. That same day, Berkshire shares traded at $40,800, their lowest price since mid-1997.

  • * * * * * * * * * * *
  • * * * * * * * * * * *

2001 年,我们在“垃圾”债上比往常活跃了些。得强调一句,这类证券不适合普通大众投资,因为它们往往名副其实。我们从不买新发行的垃圾债,而大多数投资者被人怂恿去买的,偏偏只有这一种。此外,这个领域一旦亏起来,常常是灾难性的:许多债券最后只值发行价的一个零头,有些则彻底沦为废纸。

During 2001, we were somewhat more active than usual in "junk" bonds. These are not, we should emphasize, suitable investments for the general public, because too often these securities live up to their name. We have never purchased a newly-issued junk bond, which is the only kind most investors are urged to buy. When losses occur in this field, furthermore, they are often disastrous: Many issues end up at a small fraction of their original offering price and some become entirely worthless.

尽管有这些凶险,我们仍不时能挑出几只——真的只是极少几只——让我们动心的垃圾债。而且到目前为止,我们 50 年来在困境债务上的经验是有回报的。在 1984 年年报里,我们描述过如何在华盛顿公共电力系统债券声名扫地时买入;这些年,我们还蹚过克莱斯勒金融、德士古、RJR 纳贝斯克等看似天塌下来的境地——它们后来都东山再起了。话虽如此,只要我们在垃圾债里保持活跃,你就得料到我们时不时会亏钱。

Despite these dangers, we periodically find a few ¾ a very few ¾ junk securities that are interesting to us. And, so far, our 50-year experience in distressed debt has proven rewarding. In our 1984 annual report, we described our purchases of Washington Public Power System bonds when that issuer fell into disrepute. We've also, over the years, stepped into other apparent calamities such as Chrysler Financial, Texaco and RJR Nabisco ¾ all of which returned to grace. Still, if we stay active in junk bonds, you can expect us to have losses from time to time.

偶尔,一笔困境债券的买入会引出更大的动作。在 Fruit of the Loom 破产初期,我们以面值约 50% 的价格,买进了它的公开债券和银行债务。这是一桩不寻常的破产案——优先债的利息照付不误,这意味着我们能拿到约 15% 的当期回报。我们的持仓一路增至 Fruit of the Loom 优先债的 10%,这笔投资最终很可能收回面值的 70% 左右。通过这笔投资,我们间接地为收购整家公司,小幅度压低了买价。

Occasionally, a purchase of distressed bonds leads us into something bigger. Early in the Fruit of the Loom bankruptcy, we purchased the company's public and bank debt at about 50% of face value. This was an unusual bankruptcy in that interest payments on senior debt were continued without interruption, which meant we earned about a 15% current return. Our holdings grew to 10% of Fruit's senior debt, which will probably end up returning us about 70% of face value. Through this investment, we indirectly reduced our purchase price for the whole company by a small amount.

2000 年底,我们开始买入陷入困境的金融公司 FINOVA 集团的债务,这同样牵出了一笔重大交易。当时 FINOVA 尚有约 110 亿美元未偿债务,我们以面值约三分之二的价格买下其中 13%。我们预计它会破产,却相信其资产清算后付给债权人的钱,会远高于我们的成本。2001 年初违约在即时,我们与 Leucadia National Corporation 联手,向该公司递交了一份预打包破产方案。

In late 2000, we began purchasing the obligations of FINOVA Group, a troubled finance company, and that, too, led to our making a major transaction. FINOVA then had about $11 billion of debt outstanding, of which we purchased 13% at about two-thirds of face value. We expected the company to go into bankruptcy, but believed that liquidation of its assets would produce a payoff for creditors that would be well above our cost. As default loomed in early 2001, we joined forces with Leucadia National Corporation to present the company with a prepackaged plan for bankruptcy.

这份方案后经修订(我这里简化着说)规定:债权人可获得面值 70% 的现金清偿(连同全额利息),其债权中未获现金清偿的那 30%,则换成一张新发行的 7.5% 票据。为筹措 FINOVA 那 70% 的分配款,Leucadia 和伯克希尔合组了一家共同持有的实体——取了个响亮的名字叫 Berkadia——这家实体通过弗利特波士顿银行借入 56 亿美元,转手再贷给 FINOVA,同时取得对其资产的优先受偿权。这笔 Berkadia 借款,伯克希尔担保了 90%,另外 10% 由 Leucadia 承担主要责任、伯克希尔再作次级担保。(我有没有说过我是在简化?)

The plan as subsequently modified (and I'm simplifying here) provided that creditors would be paid 70% of face value (along with full interest) and that they would receive a newly-issued 7½% note for the 30% of their claims not satisfied by cash. To fund FINOVA's 70% distribution, Leucadia and Berkshire formed a jointly-owned entity ¾ mellifluently christened Berkadia ¾ that borrowed $5.6 billion through FleetBoston and, in turn, re-lent this sum to FINOVA, concurrently obtaining a priority claim on its assets. Berkshire guaranteed 90% of the Berkadia borrowing and also has a secondary guarantee on the 10% for which Leucadia has primary responsibility. (Did I mention that I am simplifying?).

Berkadia 支付的借款利率与从 FINOVA 收到的利率之间,约有两个百分点的息差,其中 90% 归伯克希尔,10% 归 Leucadia。写这封信时,Berkadia 借入的贷款及其贷给 FINOVA 的贷款均已偿还到 39 亿美元。

There is a spread of about two percentage points between what Berkadia pays on its borrowing and what it receives from FINOVA, with this spread flowing 90% to Berkshire and 10% to Leucadia. As I write this, each loan has been paid down to $3.9 billion.

按 2001 年 8 月 10 日获批的破产方案,伯克希尔还同意以面值 70% 的价格,收购 FINOVA 新发行的 32.5 亿美元 7.5% 债券中至多 5 亿美元本金的部分。(因持有原始债务的 13%,我们已分得其中 4.268 亿美元本金。)这份要约原定持续到 2001 年 9 月 26 日,但在多种情形下可以撤回,其一便是纽约证券交易所在要约期内休市。9 月 11 日那一周休市果然发生,我们随即终止了要约。

As part of the bankruptcy plan, which was approved on August 10, 2001, Berkshire also agreed to offer 70% of face value for up to $500 million principal amount of the $3.25 billion of new 7½% bonds that were issued by FINOVA. (Of these, we had already received $426.8 million in principal amount because of our 13% ownership of the original debt.) Our offer, which was to run until September 26, 2001, could be withdrawn under a variety of conditions, one of which became operative if the New York Stock Exchange closed during the offering period. When that indeed occurred in the week of September 11 th , we promptly terminated the offer.

FINOVA 的许多贷款涉及航空资产,其价值因 9 月 11 日的事件大幅缩水;公司持有的其他应收款,也因当天袭击的经济后果而岌岌可危。因此,FINOVA 的前景已不及我们当初向破产法院提交方案时那般看好。尽管如此,我们仍觉得这笔交易总体上会让伯克希尔满意。FINOVA 的日常运营由 Leucadia 负责,而它几位核心高管的商业眼光和管理才干,长久以来一直令我们折服。

Many of FINOVA's loans involve aircraft assets whose values were significantly diminished by the events of September 11 th . Other receivables held by the company also were imperiled by the economic consequences of the attack that day. FINOVA's prospects, therefore, are not as good as when we made our proposal to the bankruptcy court. Nevertheless we feel that overall the transaction will prove satisfactory for Berkshire. Leucadia has day-to-day operating responsibility for FINOVA, and we have long been impressed with the business acumen and managerial talent of its key executives.

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又到了似曾相识的时刻:1965 年初,我执掌的投资合伙公司取得伯克希尔·哈撒韦的控制权时,这家公司主要与波士顿第一国民银行和纽约市一家大银行往来。此前,我跟这两家都没打过交道。

It's déjà vu time again: In early 1965, when the investment partnership I ran took control of Berkshire, that company had its main banking relationships with First National Bank of Boston and a large New York City bank. Previously, I had done no business with either.

时间快进到 1969 年,我想让伯克希尔收购罗克福德的伊利诺伊国民银行信托公司。我们需要 1000 万美元,便同时联系了这两家银行。纽约那头毫无回音;波士顿那家的两位代表却立刻赶到奥马哈,告诉我他们会为这笔收购出钱,细节以后再谈。

Fast forward to 1969, when I wanted Berkshire to buy the Illinois National Bank and Trust of Rockford. We needed $10 million, and I contacted both banks. There was no response from New York. However, two representatives of the Boston bank immediately came to Omaha. They told me they would supply the money for our purchase and that we would work out the details later.

此后三十年,我们几乎没向银行借过一分钱。(在伯克希尔,“债”字见不得人。)到了今年二月,我们张罗 FINOVA 交易时,我又给波士顿去了电话——第一国民银行早已演变成弗利特波士顿。公司总裁查德·吉福德的回话,和 1969 年比尔·布朗、艾拉·斯特帕尼安如出一辙——“钱有了,细节以后再说。”

For the next three decades, we borrowed almost nothing from banks. (Debt is a four-letter word around Berkshire.) Then, in February, when we were structuring the FINOVA transaction, I again called Boston, where First National had morphed into FleetBoston. Chad Gifford, the company's president, responded just as Bill Brown and Ira Stepanian had back in 1969 ¾ "you've got the money and we'll work out the details later."

事情果真如此。弗利特波士顿牵头组了一笔 60 亿美元的银团贷款(后来发现,其中 4 亿美元我们根本用不上),全球 17 家银行一拥而上,很快就超额认购。所以呀……哪天你要是急需 60 亿美元,给查德打个电话就成——前提是,你的信用得是 AAA 级。

And that's just what happened. FleetBoston syndicated a loan for $6 billion (as it turned out, we didn't need $400 million of it), and it was quickly oversubscribed by 17 banks throughout the world. Sooooo . . . if you ever need $6 billion, just give Chad a call ¾ assuming, that is, your credit is AAA.

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关于我们的投资,还有一点要说:媒体常报道“巴菲特在买入”某某证券,说是从伯克希尔提交的申报文件里挖出的“事实”。这些说法有时不假,但伯克希尔申报的交易,有些其实出自卢·辛普森之手——他为 GEICO 打理着一个 20 亿美元的组合,完全独立于我。通常卢买卖什么并不告诉我,我总要等每月月末过几天拿到 GEICO 的组合汇总表,才知道他做了些什么。卢的思路当然和我很像,可我们最后往往买进不同的股票。这多半是因为他手里的钱比我少,因而能投那些规模更小的公司。哦对了,我俩之间还有个小小的差别:近几年,卢的业绩远比我强。

One more point about our investments: The media often report that "Buffett is buying" this or that security, having picked up the "fact" from reports that Berkshire files. These accounts are sometimes correct, but at other times the transactions Berkshire reports are actually being made by Lou Simpson, who runs a $2 billion portfolio for GEICO that is quite independent of me. Normally, Lou does not tell me what he is buying or selling, and I learn of his activities only when I look at a GEICO portfolio summary that I receive a few days after the end of each month. Lou's thinking, of course, is quite similar to mine, but we usually end up in different securities. That's largely because he's working with less money and can therefore invest in smaller companies than I. Oh, yes, there's also another minor difference between us: In recent years, Lou's performance has been far better than mine.

慈善捐款

Charitable Contributions

在慈善捐款上,伯克希尔奉行一套很不寻常的做法——但查理和我都认为,它既合理,对股东也公平。

Berkshire follows a highly unusual policy in respect to charitable contributions ¾ but it's one that Charlie and I believe is both rational and fair to owners.

首先,我们让各运营子公司自行拿主意做慈善,只要求那些当年把公司当独立企业经营的所有者兼经理人,用自己的钱、而非公司的钱,去捐给他们私人钟意的慈善机构。至于动用公司资金时,我们信得过他们,会以给所辖业务带来相称有形或无形回报的方式进行捐赠。去年,伯克希尔各子公司的捐款合计 1920 万美元。

First, we let our operating subsidiaries make their own charitable decisions, requesting only that the owners/managers who once ran these as independent companies make all donations to their personal charities from their own funds, instead of using company money. When our managers are using company funds, we trust them to make gifts in a manner that delivers commensurate tangible or intangible benefits to the operations they manage. Last year contributions from Berkshire subsidiaries totaled $19.2 million.

在母公司层面,除股东指定的捐款外,我们分文不捐。我们不为董事或员工的捐赠配捐,也不给巴菲特家族或芒格家族偏爱的慈善机构掏钱。不过,有几家子公司在被我们收购前就设有员工配捐计划,我们乐得让它们照办下去:去干预一种行之有效的企业文化,从来不是我们的作风。

At the parent company level, we make no contributions except those designated by shareholders. We do not match contributions made by directors or employees, nor do we give to the favorite charities of the Buffetts or the Mungers. However, prior to our purchasing them, a few of our subsidiaries had employee-match programs and we feel fine about their continuing them: It's not our style to tamper with successful business cultures.

为落实股东们的行善心愿,我们每年会通知 A 股登记在册的股东(A 股占我们股本的 86.6%)一个每股金额,他们可以指示我们捐给至多三家慈善机构。股东点名,伯克希尔开支票。凡符合《国内税收法典》资格的机构,股东都可指定。去年,伯克希尔按 5700 位股东的指示,向他们点名的 3550 家慈善机构捐出 1670 万美元。这个项目启动至今,股东们的捐款已累计 1.81 亿美元。

To implement our owners' charitable desires, each year we notify registered holders of A shares (A's represent 86.6% of our equity capital) of a per-share amount that they can instruct us to contribute to as many as three charities. Shareholders name the charity; Berkshire writes the check. Any organization that qualifies under the Internal Revenue Code can be designated by shareholders. Last year Berkshire made contributions of $16.7 million at the direction of 5,700 shareholders, who named 3,550 charities as recipients. Since we started this program, our shareholders' gifts have totaled $181 million.

多数上市公司都对宗教机构的捐赠避而远之。可这类机构却是我们股东的心头好——去年,股东们就点名了 437 座教堂和犹太会堂受捐,另有 790 所学校在列。我们几位较大的股东,包括查理和我,会指定各自的私人基金会受捐,好让这些基金会再把钱广施出去。

Most public corporations eschew gifts to religious institutions. These, however, are favorite charities of our shareholders, who last year named 437 churches and synagogues to receive gifts. Additionally, 790 schools were recipients. A few of our larger shareholders, including Charlie and me, designate their personal foundations to get gifts, so that those entities can, in turn, disburse their funds widely.

每周我都会收到几封来信,指责伯克希尔向“计划生育联合会”捐款。这些信通常是某个想抵制伯克希尔产品的组织撺掇来的。写信的人无一例外彬彬有礼、言辞恳切,却漏掉了一个要紧点:做慈善决定的不是伯克希尔,而是它的股东——而这些股东的意见之五花八门,超乎你的想象。举例来说,在堕胎这个问题上,他们的正反两派,大概与全美人口的比例相当。无论他们指定捐给“计划生育联合会”还是“大都会生命权组织”,只要机构具备 501(c)(3) 资格,我们都照办。这就好比我们派发了一笔股息,股东再把它捐出去;只不过我们这种发放方式,在税务上更划算。

I get a few letters every week criticizing Berkshire for contributing to Planned Parenthood. These letters are usually prompted by an organization that wishes to see boycotts of Berkshire products. The letters are invariably polite and sincere, but their writers are unaware of a key point: It's not Berkshire, but rather its owners who are making charitable decisions ¾ and these owners are about as diverse in their opinions as you can imagine. For example, they are probably on both sides of the abortion issue in roughly the same proportion as the American population. We'll follow their instructions, whether they designate Planned Parenthood or Metro Right to Life, just as long as the charity possesses 501(c)(3) status. It's as if we paid a dividend, which the shareholder then donated. Our form of disbursement, however, is more tax-efficient.

无论是采购商品还是招聘员工,我们从不考虑对方的宗教信仰、性别、种族或性取向。这样做不仅是错的,更是愚蠢的。我们需要所有能找到的人才,而且我们也认识到,能干且值得信赖的经理、员工和供应商来自极为多元化的人群。

In neither the purchase of goods nor the hiring of personnel, do we ever consider the religious views, the gender, the race or the sexual orientation of the persons we are dealing with. It would not only be wrong to do so, it would be idiotic. We need all of the talent we can find, and we have learned that able and trustworthy managers, employees and suppliers come from a very wide spectrum of humanity.

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要参与我们未来的慈善捐赠计划,你所持的 A 类股必须登记在实际所有人的名下,而不能挂在券商、银行或存托机构的名义户下。凡在 2002 年 8 月 31 日仍未如此登记的股份,都不具备参与 2002 年计划的资格。收到我们寄去的捐赠表格后,请尽快寄回。逾期收到的指定——

To participate in our future charitable contribution programs, you must own Class A shares that are registered in the name of the actual owner, not the nominee name of a broker, bank or depository. Shares not so registered on August 31, 2002 will be ineligible for the 2002 program. When you get the contributions form from us, return it promptly. Designations received after the due

——将不予受理。

date will not be honored.

股东大会

The Annual Meeting

今年的股东大会将于 5 月 4 日(周六)举行,地点仍在市政礼堂。早上 7 点开门,8 点半开始播放电影,9 点半会议正式开始。中午会短暂休息用餐(三明治可在礼堂的小卖部买到)。除这段休息时间外,查理和我会一直回答问题到下午 3 点半。尽管放马过来。

This year's annual meeting will be on Saturday, May 4, and we will again be at the Civic Auditorium. The doors will open at 7 a.m., the movie will begin at 8:30, and the meeting itself will commence at 9:30. There will be a short break at noon for food. (Sandwiches can be bought at the Civic's concession stands.) Except for that interlude, Charlie and I will answer questions until 3:30. Give us your best shot.

至少未来一年,位于市中心的市政礼堂是我们唯一可用的场地。因此,我们只能将会议安排在周六或周日,以避开工作日势必出现的交通与停车噩梦。不过,奥马哈很快将有一座新的会展中心,停车设施十分充裕。假设我们届时移师该中心,我会向股东征询意见,看你们是否愿意恢复 2000 年以前惯常的周一开会。我们将按股东人数、而非持股数量来决定投票结果。(不过,我们绝不会把这种投票方式用来决定谁该当 CEO。)

For at least the next year, the Civic, located downtown, is the only site available to us. We must therefore hold the meeting on either Saturday or Sunday to avoid the traffic and parking nightmare sure to occur on a weekday. Shortly, however, Omaha will have a new Convention Center with plenty of parking facilities. Assuming that we then head for the Center, I will poll shareholders to see whether you wish to return to the Monday meeting that was standard until 2000. We will decide that vote based on a count of shareholders, not shares. (This is not a system, however, we will ever institute to decide who should be CEO.)

随本报告附上的委托材料中有一份附件,说明了如何领取你进入会场及参加其他活动所需的凭证。至于机票、酒店和租车预订,我们再次委托美国运通(800-799-6634)为你提供专门协助。他们每年都为我们干得极为出色,对此我深表感谢。

An attachment to the proxy material that is enclosed with this report explains how you can obtain the credential you will need for admission to the meeting and other events. As for plane, hotel and car reservations, we have again signed up American Express (800-799-6634) to give you special help. They do a terrific job for us each year, and I thank them for it.

按照老规矩,我们将安排大巴从各大酒店前往会场。会后,大巴将先返回酒店,再前往内布拉斯加家具城、波仙珠宝和机场。即便如此,你可能会发现自己有辆车会更方便。

In our usual fashion, we will run buses from the larger hotels to the meeting. Afterwards, the buses will make trips back to the hotels and to Nebraska Furniture Mart, Borsheim's and the airport. Even so, you are likely to find a car useful.

今年伯克希尔新添了如此多的公司,我就不一一详述我们将在大会上出售的所有产品了。但请你做好准备,从砖块到糖果,什么都要往家搬。当然,还有内衣。假设我们收购 Fruit of the Loom 的交易能在 5 月 4 日前完成,我们将会出售 Fruit 的最新款式,让你成为左邻右舍里的时尚先锋。买够一辈子的量吧。

We have added so many new companies to Berkshire this year that I'm not going to detail all of the products that we will be selling at the meeting. But come prepared to carry home everything from bricks to candy. And underwear, of course. Assuming our Fruit of the Loom purchase has closed by May 4, we will be selling Fruit's latest styles, which will make you your neighborhood's fashion leader. Buy a lifetime supply.

GEICO 将设有一个展台,由来自全国各地的多位顶尖顾问坐镇,随时为你提供车险报价。多数情况下,GEICO 还能给你一个特别的股东折扣(通常为 8%)。在我们开展业务的 49 个辖区中,有 41 个允许此项特别优惠。带上你现有保险的详细信息,看看我们能不能帮你省钱。

GEICO will have a booth staffed by a number of its top counselors from around the country, all of them ready to supply you with auto insurance quotes. In most cases, GEICO will be able to give you a special shareholder discount (usually 8%). This special offer is permitted by 41 of the 49 jurisdictions in which we operate. Bring the details of your existing insurance and check out whether we can save you money.

周六大清早,奥马哈机场将照常停有一排 NetJets® 的飞机供你参观。想参观哪一架飞机,直接向市政礼堂的工作人员询问即可。如果你周末期间买下的东西达到我们认为“数量可观”的程度,你可能真的需要一架自己的飞机才能把它们运回家。而且,如果你购买的是飞机的部分所有权,我们说不定还附赠一份三条装的三角内裤或平角内裤。

At the Omaha airport on Saturday, we will have the usual array of aircraft from NetJets® available for your inspection. Just ask a representative at the Civic about viewing any of these planes. If you buy what we consider an appropriate number of items during the weekend, you may well need your own plane to take them home. And, if you buy a fraction of a plane, we might even throw in a three-pack of briefs or boxers.

内布拉斯加家具城坐落于第 72 街、道奇街与太平洋街之间,占地 75 英亩。届时,我们将再度推出“伯克希尔周末”特价,这意味着我们将为股东提供通常仅限员工的折扣。这项特价政策是我们五年前在 NFM 首创的,“周末”销售额已从 1997 年的 530 万美元增至 2001 年的 1150 万美元。

At Nebraska Furniture Mart, located on a 75-acre site on 72 nd Street between Dodge and Pacific, we will again be having "Berkshire Weekend" pricing, which means we will be offering our shareholders a discount that is customarily given only to employees. We initiated this special pricing at NFM five years ago, and sales during the "Weekend" grew from $5.3 million in 1997 to $11.5 million in 2001.

要享受此折扣,你必须在 5 月 2 日(周四)至 5 月 6 日(周一)期间购物,并出示大会凭证。这一特价期甚至涵盖了几家向来严禁打折的知名制造商的产品,但本着我们股东周末的精神,他们为你破例放行。我们感谢他们的配合。NFM 周一至周五营业时间为上午 10 点至晚上 9 点,周六和周日的营业时间为上午 10 点至下午 6 点。

To get the discount, you must make your purchases on Thursday, May 2 through Monday, May 6 and also present your meeting credential. The period's special pricing will even apply to the products of several prestigious manufacturers that normally have ironclad rules against discounting but that, in the spirit of our shareholder weekend, have made an exception for you. We appreciate their cooperation. NFM is open from 10 a.m. to 9 p.m. on weekdays and 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Saturdays and Sundays.

波仙珠宝——

Borsheim's ¾

——它是全美除蒂芙尼曼哈顿店之外最大的珠宝店——

the largest jewelry store in the country except for Tiffany's Manhattan store ¾

——将举办两场股东专属活动。第一场是 5 月 3 日(周五)晚上 6 点到 10 点的鸡尾酒招待会。第二场是主要盛会,于 5 月 5 日(周日)上午 9 点到下午 5 点举行。股东价从周四到周一均可享受,所以如果你希望避开周五晚上和周日聚集的人潮,可在其他时间光临并表明股东身份。周六我们将营业至晚上 6 点。波仙珠宝的毛利率比其主要竞争对手整整低二十个百分点,因此你买得越多,省得越多(至少我太太和女儿是这么跟我说的)。来吧,让我们给你做个钱包切除手术。

will have two shareholder-only events. The first will be a cocktail reception from 6 p.m. to 10 p.m. on Friday, May 3. The second, the main gala, will be from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. on Sunday, May 5. Shareholder prices will be available Thursday through Monday, so if you wish to avoid the large crowds that will assemble on Friday evening and Sunday, come at other times and identify yourself as a shareholder. On Saturday, we will be open until 6 p.m. Borsheim's operates on a gross margin that is fully twenty percentage points below that of its major rivals, so the more you buy, the more you save (or at least that's what my wife and daughter tell me). Come by and let us perform a walletectomy on you.

周日下午,我们还请来几位世界顶尖的桥牌高手,在波仙店外的商场里陪股东们过招。预计鲍勃·哈曼、佩特拉·哈曼夫妇会同莎伦·奥斯伯格一道坐镇牌桌。两届美国国际象棋冠军帕特里克·沃尔夫也会在商场里迎战所有挑战者——

In the mall outside of Borsheim's, we will have some of the world's top bridge experts available to play with our shareholders on Sunday afternoon. We expect Bob and Petra Hamman along with Sharon Osberg to host tables. Patrick Wolff, twice U.S. chess champion, will also be in the mall, taking on all comers ¾

——蒙着眼睛下!去年,帕特里克最多同时下六盘——

blindfolded! Last year, Patrick played as many as six games simultaneously ¾

——眼罩系得严严实实——

with his blindfold securely in place ¾

——今年他要挑战七盘。最后,比尔·罗伯蒂——两度捧得西洋双陆棋世界冠军、仅有的两人之一——也会到场,考一考你的棋艺。周日就到商场来,参加这场“门萨奥运会”吧。

and this year will try for seven. Finally, Bill Robertie, one of only two players who have twice won the backgammon world championship, will be on hand to test your skill at that game. Come to the mall on Sunday for the Mensa Olympics.

戈拉特牛排馆——

Gorat's ¾

——我最爱的牛排馆——

my favorite steakhouse ¾

——5 月 5 日(周日)将再度只为伯克希尔股东开门,营业时间从下午 4 点到晚 10 点。请记牢,周日想去戈拉特,必须预订。订位请于 4 月 1 日(且不得提前)拨打 402-551-3733。若周日已订满,不妨改在你逗留奥马哈的别的晚上去。点一份三分熟的 T 骨牛排、外加双份薯饼,尽显你的老到。

will again be open exclusively for Berkshire shareholders on Sunday, May 5, and will be serving from 4 p.m. until 10 p.m. Please remember that to come to Gorat's on Sunday, you must have a reservation. To make one, call 402-551-3733 on April 1 ( but not before ). If Sunday is sold out, try Gorat's on one of the other evenings you will be in town. Show your sophistication by ordering a rare T-bone with a double order of hash browns.

照例的棒球赛将于周六晚 7 点在罗森布拉特球场举行,今年由奥马哈皇家队迎战俄克拉荷马红鹰队。去年,为效仿贝比·鲁斯的转型,我弃投从打。奥马哈本地人鲍勃·吉布森站上投手丘,我吓得不轻,生怕挨他那记出了名的近身内角球。谁知他送来一记落在好球区的快速球,我使出马克·麦奎尔式的一挥,竟结结实实地打出一记强劲的地滚球——它却莫名其妙地死在了内场。我没往一垒跑:到了我这把年纪,打一副桥牌都能喘不上气。

The usual baseball game will be held at Rosenblatt Stadium at 7 p.m. on Saturday night. This year the Omaha Royals will play the Oklahoma RedHawks. Last year, in an attempt to emulate the career switch of Babe Ruth, I gave up pitching and tried batting. Bob Gibson, an Omaha native, was on the mound and I was terrified, fearing Bob's famous brush-back pitch. Instead, he delivered a fast ball in the strike zone, and with a Mark McGwire-like swing, I managed to connect for a hard grounder, which inexplicably died in the infield. I didn't run it out: At my age, I get winded playing a hand of bridge.

今年球场上会有什么名堂,我也说不准,但来了自会有惊喜。领取球赛门票的办法,我们的委托说明书里写着。凡订购大会门票的人,都会收到一本小册子,里头五花八门的信息能帮你把奥马哈之行过得尽兴。城里热闹得很。所以,来赴这场“伍德斯托克周末”,到市政礼堂加入我们的资本主义盛典吧。

I'm not sure what will take place at the ballpark this year, but come out and be surprised. Our proxy statement contains instructions for obtaining tickets to the game. Those people ordering tickets to the annual meeting will receive a booklet containing all manner of information that should help you enjoy your visit in Omaha. There will be plenty of action in town. So come for Woodstock Weekend and join our Celebration of Capitalism at the Civic.

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最后,我要谢谢世界总部那支了不起、效率高得惊人的队伍(总部面积总共才 5246.5 平方英尺),是他们让我的活儿变得如此轻松。去年伯克希尔新增了约 4 万名员工,队伍壮大到 11 万人;总部这边添了一个人,如今共有 14.8 人。(我几番劝乔艾伦·里克把每周四天工作改成五天,都没劝动;我猜她挺享受那 0.8 个人带来的全国知名度。)

Finally, I would like to thank the wonderful and incredibly productive crew at World Headquarters (all 5,246.5 square feet of it) who make my job so easy. Berkshire added about 40,000 employees last year, bringing our workforce to 110,000. At headquarters we added one employee and now have 14.8. (I've tried in vain to get JoEllen Rieck to change her workweek from four days to five; I think she likes the national recognition she gains by being .8.)

以我们当下的规模和业务之广,各样职责本就千头万绪,再加上一些几乎为伯克希尔所独有的活计——比如股东盛会和指定捐款计划——要打理得井井有条,需要一支极为特别的队伍。而这样一支队伍,我们确确实实拥有。

The smooth handling of the array of duties that come with our current size and scope ¾ as well as some additional activities almost unique to Berkshire, such as our shareholder gala and designated-gifts program ¾ takes a very special group of people. And that we most definitely have.

2002 年 2 月 28 日

February 28, 2002

沃伦·E·巴菲特 董事会主席

Warren E. Buffett Chairman of the Board