2002 年致股东信

致股东信 · 原文约 14178 词
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注:下表载于年报印刷版中董事长信函的对页,信中亦有提及。伯克希尔·哈撒韦的公司业绩 vs. 标普 500 指数

Note: The following table appears in the printed Annual Report on the facing page of the Chairman's Letter and is referred to in that letter. Berkshire’s Corporate Performance vs. the S&P 500

伯克希尔每股账面价值变动标普500(含股息)的年度百分比变化相对结果
年度(1)(2)(1)-(2)
196523.810.013.8
196620.3(11.7)32.0
196711.030.9(19.9)
196819.011.08.0
196916.2(8.4)24.6
197012.03.98.1
197116.414.61.8
197221.718.92.8
19734.7(14.8)19.5
19745.5(26.4)31.9
197521.937.2(15.3)
197659.323.635.7
197731.9(7.4)39.3
197824.06.417.6
197935.718.217.5
198019.332.3(13.0)
198131.4(5.0)36.4
198240.021.418.6
198332.322.49.9
198413.66.17.5
198548.231.616.6
198626.118.67.5
198719.55.114.4
198820.116.63.5
198944.431.712.7
19907.4(3.1)10.5
199139.630.59.1
199220.37.612.7
199314.310.14.2
199413.91.312.6
199543.137.65.5
199631.823.08.8
199734.133.4.7
199848.328.619.7
1999.521.0(20.5)
20006.5(9.1)15.6
2001(6.2)(11.9)5.7
200210.0(22.1)32.1
1965-2002年平均年度收益22.210.012.2
总收益  1964-2002214,4333,663
in Per-Share Book Value of BerkshireAnnual Percentage Change in S&P 500 with Dividends IncludedRelative Results
Year(1)(2)(1)-(2)
196523.810.013.8
196620.3(11.7)32.0
196711.030.9(19.9)
196819.011.08.0
196916.2(8.4)24.6
197012.03.98.1
197116.414.61.8
197221.718.92.8
19734.7(14.8)19.5
19745.5(26.4)31.9
197521.937.2(15.3)
197659.323.635.7
197731.9(7.4)39.3
197824.06.417.6
197935.718.217.5
198019.332.3(13.0)
198131.4(5.0)36.4
198240.021.418.6
198332.322.49.9
198413.66.17.5
198548.231.616.6
198626.118.67.5
198719.55.114.4
198820.116.63.5
198944.431.712.7
19907.4(3.1)10.5
199139.630.59.1
199220.37.612.7
199314.310.14.2
199413.91.312.6
199543.137.65.5
199631.823.08.8
199734.133.4.7
199848.328.619.7
1999.521.0(20.5)
20006.5(9.1)15.6
2001(6.2)(11.9)5.7
200210.0(22.1)32.1
Average Annual Gain  1965-200222.210.012.2
Overall Gain  1964-2002214,4333,663

注:数据按日历年统计,例外如下:1965 和 1966 年截止于 9 月 30 日;1967 年截止于 12 月 31 日,共计 15 个月。从 1979 年起,会计准则要求保险公司按市值为其持有的权益证券计价,取代此前的成本与市价孰低法。本表中,伯克希尔 1978 年以前的业绩已按新规重述,其余各项则沿用最初报告的数字。标普 500 的数据为税前,伯克希尔的数据则为税后。假如一家像伯克希尔这样的公司只是单纯持有标普 500 并缴纳相应税款,那么在该指数录得正回报的年份,它的业绩会落后于标普 500;在指数录得负回报的年份,则会跑赢标普 500。年复一年,税负累积下来,落后的幅度会相当可观。

Notes: Data are for calendar years with these exceptions: 1965 and 1966, year ended 9/30; 1967, 15 months ended 12/31. Starting in 1979, accounting rules required insurance companies to value the equity securities they hold at market rather than at the lower of cost or market, which was previously the requirement. In this table, Berkshire's results through 1978 have been restated to conform to the changed rules. In all other respects, the results are calculated using the numbers originally reported. The S&P 500 numbers are pre-tax whereas the Berkshire numbers are after-tax. If a corporation such as Berkshire were simply to have owned the S&P 500 and accrued the appropriate taxes, its results would have lagged the S&P 500 in years when that index showed a positive return, but would have exceeded the S&P in years when the index showed a negative return. Over the years, the tax costs would have caused the aggregate lag to be substantial.

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伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.

致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司全体股东:

To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

2002 年,我们的净资产增加了 61 亿美元,A 股与 B 股的每股账面价值因此各增长 10.0%。过去 38 年(亦即现任管理层接手以来),每股账面价值从 19 美元增长到 41,727 美元,年复合增长率达 22.2%。* 无论从哪个方面看,2002 年都是一个大有之年。细节我留待后文,先做个概述:

Our gain in net worth during 2002 was $6.1 billion, which increased the per-share book value of both our Class A and Class B stock by 10.0%. Over the last 38 years (that is, since present management took over) per-share book value has grown from $19 to $41,727, a rate of 22.2% compounded annually.∗ In all respects 2002 was a banner year. I’ll provide details later, but here’s a summary: •

尽管经济增长乏力,我们旗下各项非保险业务的表现却极其出色。十年前,伯克希尔非保险业务的年度税前利润为 2.72 亿美元;如今,凭借我们不断扩张的制造、零售、服务与金融业务组合,我们一个月就能挣到这么多。

Our various non-insurance operations performed exceptionally well, despite a sluggish economy. A decade ago Berkshire’s annual pre-tax earnings from our non-insurance businesses was $272 million. Now, from our ever-expanding collection of manufacturing, retailing, service and finance businesses, we earn that sum monthly.

我们的保险集团将浮存金增至 412 亿美元,大幅增加了 57 亿美元。更妙的是,2002 年动用这些资金的成本仅为 1%。重新获得低成本浮存金的感受很好,尤其在此前三年我们成绩不佳之后。2002 年,伯克希尔的再保险部门与 GEICO 表现极其亮眼,通用再保险也重新建立了承保纪律。

Our insurance group increased its float to $41.2 billion, a hefty gain of $5.7 billion. Better yet, the use of these funds in 2002 cost us only 1%. Getting back to low-cost float feels good, particularly after our poor results during the three previous years. Berkshire’s reinsurance division and GEICO shot the lights out in 2002, and underwriting discipline was restored at General Re.

伯克希尔收购了几家重要的新业务——它们的经济特性从优良到卓越不等,均由一流乃至顶尖的经理人执掌。这些特质是我们“进入”策略的两条支柱,第三条支柱是明智的收购价格。与杠杆收购操盘手和私募股权公司不同,我们没有“退出”策略——买下就是为了长期持有。这也是为何对于卖家和他们的管理层而言,伯克希尔通常是首选,有时甚至是唯一的选择。

Berkshire acquired some important new businesses – with economic characteristics ranging from good to great, run by managers ranging from great to great. Those attributes are two legs of our “entrance” strategy, the third being a sensible purchase price. Unlike LBO operators and private equity firms, we have no “exit” strategy – we buy to keep. That’s one reason why Berkshire is usually the first – and sometimes the only – choice for sellers and their managers.

我们的有价证券跑赢了大多数指数。对此,负责 GEICO 股票投资的卢·辛普森早已司空见惯。但对我而言,在经历近几年惨淡的投资记录之后,这倒是令人欣慰的转变。

Our marketable securities outperformed most indices. For Lou Simpson, who manages equities at GEICO, this was old stuff. But, for me, it was a welcome change from the last few years, during which my investment record was dismal.

2002 年,这些有利因素汇集在一起,使我们的账面价值增幅领先标普 500 指数 32.1 个百分点。这一结果并非常态:伯克希尔副董事长、我的合伙人查理·芒格和我,最多只期望能实现年均几个百分点的优势。未来总会有标普 500 指数把我们远远甩在后面的年份。事实上,在强劲的牛市中这几乎必然发生,因为我们投在普通股上的资产比例已显著下降。这一变化,自然也有助于我们在类似 2002 年这样的下跌市场中取得相对更好的表现。关于去年的业绩,我还需提出另一项提醒。如果你近年来读过财务报告,肯定见过大量“备考”利润表——在这些表里,经理人呈报的“利润”无一例外地远超审计师认可的数字。在这些演示中,首席执行官告诉股东:“这个别算,那个也别算——只算能让利润变肥的就行。”年复一年忘掉所有坏事的说辞,管理层说起来竟脸都不红一下。

The confluence of these favorable factors in 2002 caused our book-value gain to outstrip the performance of the S&P 500 by 32.1 percentage points. This result is aberrational: Charlie Munger, Berkshire’s vice chairman and my partner, and I hope to achieve – at most – an average annual advantage of a few points. In the future, there will be years in which the S&P soundly trounces us. That will in fact almost certainly happen during a strong bull market, because the portion of our assets committed to common stocks has significantly declined. This change, of course, helps our relative performance in down markets such as we had in 2002. I have another caveat to mention about last year’s results. If you’ve been a reader of financial reports in recent years, you’ve seen a flood of “pro-forma” earnings statements – tabulations in which managers invariably show “earnings” far in excess of those allowed by their auditors. In these presentations, the CEO tells his owners “don’t count this, don’t count that – just count what makes earnings fat.” Often, a forget-all-this-bad-stuff message is delivered year after year without management so much as blushing.

本报告使用的所有数字均针对伯克希尔的 A 股,该股是公司 1996 年之前唯一流通在外股票的后继股份。B 股的经济权益相当于 A 股的三十分之一。

All figures used in this report apply to Berkshire's A shares, the successor to the only stock that the company had outstanding before 1996. The B shares have an economic interest equal to 1/30th that of the A.

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我们还未见过哪份备考报告坦承审计后利润有点高。那就让我们来开创一点历史:去年,若按备考口径计算,伯克希尔的利润会低于我们实际报告的数字。之所以如此,是因为有两个有利因素抬高了我们的报告数据。第一,2002 年没有发生特大自然灾害,这意味着伯克希尔(以及其他保险公司)从保险业务中赚取的利润,多于损失处于正常水平时的情形。在情况相反的年份——因为发生特大飓风、地震或人为灾难——许多保险公司喜欢报告,说“若非”这一异常事件,它们本可赚取 X 利润。其言下之意是,既然此类巨灾并非常态,那么在计算“真实”利润时就不该把它们计算在内。这是骗人的鬼话。“若非”损失将永远是保险业务的一部分,且永远要用股东的钱来赔付。尽管如此,仅为了本次演示的目的,我们不妨借用一下行业的这套做法。就去年而言,我们确实未遇到真正重大的灾难,如果你想将我们的承保结果“常态化”,那么做一次向下修正倒是恰当的。第二,2002 年的债券市场对我们旗下金融与金融产品业务所采取的某些策略十分有利。这些策略带来的收益几乎肯定将在一两年内大幅减少——甚至可能完全消失。所以嘛……“若非”那几桩幸事,我们去年的税前利润会比实际报告的数字低大约 5 亿美元。尽管如此,我们还是很高兴把这笔超额收益收入囊中。正如杰克·班尼在一次领奖时所言:“我配不上这份荣誉——但话说回来,我患有关节炎,那毛病我也不该得。”

We’ve yet to see a pro-forma presentation disclosing that audited earnings were somewhat high. So let’s make a little history: Last year, on a pro-forma basis, Berkshire had lower earnings than those we actually reported. That is true because two favorable factors aided our reported figures. First, in 2002 there was no megacatastrophe, which means that Berkshire (and other insurers as well) earned more from insurance than if losses had been normal. In years when the reverse is true – because of a blockbuster hurricane, earthquake or man-made disaster – many insurers like to report that they would have earned X “except for” the unusual event. The implication is that since such megacats are infrequent, they shouldn’t be counted when “true” earnings are calculated. That is deceptive nonsense. “Except for” losses will forever be part of the insurance business, and they will forever be paid with shareholders’ money. Nonetheless, for the purposes of this exercise, we’ll take a page from the industry’s book. For last year, when we didn’t have any truly major disasters, a downward adjustment is appropriate if you wish to “normalize” our underwriting result. Secondly, the bond market in 2002 favored certain strategies we employed in our finance and financial products business. Gains from those strategies will certainly diminish within a year or two – and may well disappear. Soooo . . . “except for” a couple of favorable breaks, our pre-tax earnings last year would have been about $500 million less than we actually reported. We’re happy, nevertheless, to bank the excess. As Jack Benny once said upon receiving an award: “I don’t deserve this honor – but, then, I have arthritis, and I don’t deserve that either.”

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我们依然有幸拥有一批出类拔萃的经理人,其中许多人完全没有经济上的必要继续工作。但他们依旧留了下来:38 年间,我们从未有一位子公司的首席执行官选择离开伯克希尔另谋他就。算上查理,我们现在有六位经理人年过 75,我希望四年后这一数字至少再增加两位(鲍勃·肖和我都是 72 岁)。我们的理由是:“老狗难学新把戏。”伯克希尔各家运营公司的首席执行官都是各自行当的大师,他们把生意当作自己的家业来经营。我的工作就是别妨碍他们,并把他们生意所产生的富余资本配置出去。这工作很轻松。我的管理榜样是当过棒球童的埃迪·贝内特。1919 年,时年 19 岁的埃迪开始为芝加哥白袜队工作,该队当年就打进了世界大赛。第二年,埃迪转投布鲁克林道奇队,他们同样拿下了联盟冠军。然而,我们的主角嗅到了麻烦。他换了区,在 1921 年加盟纽约洋基队,洋基队随即赢得了队史首个联盟冠军。这下埃迪安顿了下来,他敏锐地预见了未来的走向。此后七年,洋基队五次赢得美国联盟冠军。这跟管理有什么关系?道理很简单——要想成为赢家,就要与赢家共事。例如,1927 年,凭借传奇的鲁斯-格里克时代的洋基队投票分给他的八分之一世界大赛份额,埃迪拿到了 700 美元。埃迪仅工作了四天便挣得这笔钱(因为纽约洋基队横扫了系列赛),大致相当于当时为普通球队工作的球童一整年的薪水。埃迪明白,他如何递球棒并不重要;真正要紧的,是跟赛场上最顶尖的那批人搭档。我从埃迪身上学到了这一点。在伯克希尔,我时常把球棒递给美国商界许多最重量级的强棒击球手。

We continue to be blessed with an extraordinary group of managers, many of whom haven’t the slightest financial need to work. They stick around, though: In 38 years, we’ve never had a single CEO of a subsidiary elect to leave Berkshire to work elsewhere. Counting Charlie, we now have six managers over 75, and I hope that in four years that number increases by at least two (Bob Shaw and I are both 72). Our rationale: “It’s hard to teach a new dog old tricks.” Berkshire’s operating CEOs are masters of their crafts and run their businesses as if they were their own. My job is to stay out of their way and allocate whatever excess capital their businesses generate. It’s easy work. My managerial model is Eddie Bennett, who was a batboy. In 1919, at age 19, Eddie began his work with the Chicago White Sox, who that year went to the World Series. The next year, Eddie switched to the Brooklyn Dodgers, and they, too, won their league title. Our hero, however, smelled trouble. Changing boroughs, he joined the Yankees in 1921, and they promptly won their first pennant in history. Now Eddie settled in, shrewdly seeing what was coming. In the next seven years, the Yankees won five American League titles. What does this have to do with management? It’s simple – to be a winner, work with winners. In 1927, for example, Eddie received $700 for the 1/8th World Series share voted him by the legendary Yankee team of Ruth and Gehrig. This sum, which Eddie earned by working only four days (because New York swept the Series) was roughly equal to the full-year pay then earned by batboys who worked with ordinary associates. Eddie understood that how he lugged bats was unimportant; what counted instead was hooking up with the cream of those on the playing field. I’ve learned from Eddie. At Berkshire, I regularly hand bats to many of the heaviest hitters in American business.

收购

Acquisitions

去年,我们又为阵容增添了几员强棒。2001 年底尚在进行的两笔收购于年内顺利完成:Albecca(以 Larson-Juhl 品牌经营),美国定制画框行业的龙头;以及 Fruit of the Loom,全美约 33.3% 的男士及男童内衣与其它服装的生产商。

We added some sluggers to our lineup last year. Two acquisitions pending at yearend 2001 were completed: Albecca (which operates under the name Larson-Juhl), the U.S. leader in custom-made picture frames; and Fruit of the Loom, the producer of about 33.3% of the men’s and boy’s underwear sold in the U.S. and of other apparel as well.

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两家公司都随附了出色的首席执行官:Albecca 的史蒂夫·麦肯齐,Fruit 的约翰·霍兰德。约翰 1996 年从 Fruit 退休,三年前重返公司,把它从他离开后走上的灾难性道路上拉了回来。他如今 70 岁,我正努力说服他把下一次退休时间安排得与我同步(我目前的退休时间暂定在离世五年后——不过这个日期仍可顺延)。去年,我们还发起并完成了另外两笔收购,规模略低于我们常规的门槛。但这两项业务合起来,每年税前利润超过 6000 万美元。两家公司所处的行业经济特性都很艰难,但也都拥有重要的竞争优势,使它们能赚取像样的资本回报。

Both companies came with outstanding CEOs: Steve McKenzie at Albecca and John Holland at Fruit. John, who had retired from Fruit in 1996, rejoined it three years ago and rescued the company from the disastrous path it had gone down after he’d left. He’s now 70, and I am trying to convince him to make his next retirement coincident with mine (presently scheduled for five years after my death – a date subject, however, to extension). We initiated and completed two other acquisitions last year that were somewhat below our normal size threshold. In aggregate, however, these businesses earn more than $60 million pre-tax annually. Both operate in industries characterized by tough economics, but both also have important competitive strengths that enable them to earn decent returns on capital.

新加入的公司是:

The newcomers are:

(a)

(a)

CTB,家禽、生猪、蛋类生产及谷物设备领域的全球龙头;以及

CTB, a worldwide leader in equipment for the poultry, hog, egg production and grain industries; and

(b)

(b)

Garan,一家童装制造商,其规模最大、知名度最高的产品线是 Garanimals®。

Garan, a manufacturer of children’s apparel, whose largest and best-known line is Garanimals®.

这两家公司都随之带来了为其亮眼业绩立下功劳的经理人:CTB 的维克·曼奇内利,Garan 的西摩·利希滕斯坦。我们在 2002 年主动发起的最大一笔收购是 The Pampered Chef(“为厨师而设”),这家公司有一段引人入胜的历史,可追溯至 1980 年。当时,多丽丝·克里斯托弗是芝加哥郊区一位 34 岁的家政课老师,有丈夫、两个小女儿,毫无商业背景。但她想给家里微薄的收入添点补贴,便开始琢磨自己最熟悉的事——下厨做饭。她心想,何不做一门销售厨具的生意,专注于那些她自己用起来最顺手的物件?为了起步,多丽丝用人寿保单作抵押借了 3000 美元——这是公司自始至终注入的全部资金——然后去商品批发市场采购。在那里,她每样东西各挑了十几件,带回家在地下室设点开张。她的计划是到朋友家中,为一小群女性做上门演示。可在开车前往第一场演示的路上,多丽丝差点说服自己掉头回家,认定自己注定要失败。然而,那天晚上她所面对的那些女士喜欢上了她,也喜欢上了她的产品,当场买下 175 美元的货品,TPC 由此起步。多丽丝与丈夫杰伊并肩打拼,头一年做了 5 万美元的生意。如今——仅仅 22 年后——TPC 每年营业额超过 7 亿美元,通过 67000 名厨房顾问开展业务。我参加过一场 TPC 的聚会,很容易看出这门生意为什么能成功。公司的产品大都是自有品牌,设计讲究、相当实用,顾问们既懂行又热情。每个人都乐在其中。赶紧上 pamperedchef.com,查找你附近哪里可以参加一场聚会。两年前,多丽丝请来希拉·奥康奈尔·库珀(现为 CEO)分担管理职责,8 月她们俩来奥马哈见了我。我大约只用了十秒钟就断定,这是两位我愿意携手的经理人,我们当即达成了交易。伯克希尔的股东们能与多丽丝和希拉结缘,再幸运不过了。

These two companies came with the managers responsible for their impressive records: Vic Mancinelli at CTB and Seymour Lichtenstein at Garan. The largest acquisition we initiated in 2002 was The Pampered Chef, a company with a fascinating history dating back to 1980. Doris Christopher was then a 34-year-old suburban Chicago home economics teacher with a husband, two little girls, and absolutely no business background. Wanting, however, to supplement her family’s modest income, she turned to thinking about what she knew best – food preparation. Why not, she wondered, make a business out of marketing kitchenware, focusing on the items she herself had found most useful? To get started, Doris borrowed $3,000 against her life insurance policy – all the money ever injected into the company – and went to the Merchandise Mart on a buying expedition. There, she picked up a dozen each of this and that, and then went home to set up operations in her basement. Her plan was to conduct in-home presentations to small groups of women, gathered at the homes of their friends. While driving to her first presentation, though, Doris almost talked herself into returning home, convinced she was doomed to fail. But the women she faced that evening loved her and her products, purchased $175 of goods, and TPC was underway. Working with her husband, Jay, Doris did $50,000 of business in the first year. Today – only 22 years later – TPC does more than $700 million of business annually, working through 67,000 kitchen consultants. I’ve been to a TPC party, and it’s easy to see why the business is a success. The company’s products, in large part proprietary, are well-styled and highly useful, and the consultants are knowledgeable and enthusiastic. Everyone has a good time. Hurry to pamperedchef.com on the Internet to find where to attend a party near you. Two years ago, Doris brought in Sheila O’Connell Cooper, now CEO, to share the management load, and in August they met with me in Omaha. It took me about ten seconds to decide that these were two managers with whom I wished to partner, and we promptly made a deal. Berkshire shareholders couldn’t be luckier than to be associated with Doris and Sheila.

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去年,伯克希尔还通过中美能源控股公司(MEHC)完成了几笔重要收购,我们在这家公司持有 80.2% 的股权。不过,由于《公用事业控股公司法》(PUHCA)将我们的投票控制权限制在 9.9%,我们无法将 MEHC 的财务报表完全并表。尽管存在投票控制权限制——以及由此衍生出的、多少有些特别的资本结构——MEHC 仍是伯克希尔的关键组成部分。它已拥有 180 亿美元资产,并为我们贡献了最大一股非保险盈利来源。它完全有可能发展成一个庞然大物。

Berkshire also made some important acquisitions last year through MidAmerican Energy Holdings (MEHC), a company in which our equity interest is 80.2%. Because the Public Utility Holding Company Act (PUHCA) limits us to 9.9% voting control, however, we are unable to fully consolidate MEHC’s financial statements. Despite the voting-control limitation – and the somewhat strange capital structure at MEHC it has engendered – the company is a key part of Berkshire. Already it has $18 billion of assets and delivers our largest stream of non-insurance earnings. It could well grow to be huge.

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5

去年,MEHC 收购了两条重要的天然气管道。第一条是克恩河管道,从怀俄明州西南部一直通到南加州。这条管道每天输送约 9 亿立方英尺天然气,眼下正在进行一项耗资 12 亿美元的扩建,到今年秋天运力将翻一番。届时,它输送的天然气足以为 1000 万户家庭供电。第二条是北天然气管道,全长 16600 英里,从西南部一路延伸到中西部的众多地区。这笔收购,为一段让奥马哈人格外关注的企业往事画上了句号。北天然气自 20 世纪 30 年代创立起,就是奥马哈最顶尖的企业之一,历任 CEO 也常常是社区里的头面人物。后来,1985 年 7 月,这家公司(1980 年已更名为 InterNorth)与规模还不到它一半的休斯顿天然气公司合并。两家公司宣布,合并后的企业总部设在奥马哈,由 InterNorth 的 CEO 继续掌舵。不出一年,这些承诺全被推翻。到那时,休斯顿天然气原来的 CEO 已经坐上了 InterNorth 的头把交椅,公司改了名,总部也迁到了休斯顿。这一连串变动都出自新任 CEO 之手——他就是肯·莱,而他给公司选的新名字,叫安然。时间快进 15 年,来到 2001 年底。安然陷入了那场我们听得耳朵起茧的麻烦,它向 Dynegy 公司借钱,把北天然气管道的运营权抵押了出去。两家公司很快闹翻,管道的所有权落到了 Dynegy 手里;紧接着,Dynegy 自己也陷入了严重的财务困境。2002 年 7 月 26 日星期五,Dynegy 打电话给 MEHC,想尽快以现金稳妥地把这条管道出手。Dynegy 找对了人:7 月 29 日我们签下合同,不久之后,北天然气就回到了老家。2001 年初,查理和我压根没想到伯克希尔会踏进管道生意。可等克恩河的扩建完工,MEHC 输送的天然气将占到全美用量的约 8%。我们会继续物色大型能源资产,只是在电力公用事业领域,PUHCA 束缚了我们的手脚。

Last year MEHC acquired two important gas pipelines. The first, Kern River, extends from Southwest Wyoming to Southern California. This line moves about 900 million cubic feet of gas a day and is undergoing a $1.2 billion expansion that will double throughput by this fall. At that point, the line will carry enough gas to generate electricity for ten million homes. The second acquisition, Northern Natural Gas, is a 16,600 mile line extending from the Southwest to a wide range of Midwestern locations. This purchase completes a corporate odyssey of particular interest to Omahans. From its beginnings in the 1930s, Northern Natural was one of Omaha’s premier businesses, run by CEOs who regularly distinguished themselves as community leaders. Then, in July, 1985, the company – which in 1980 had been renamed InterNorth – merged with Houston Natural Gas, a business less than half its size. The companies announced that the enlarged operation would be headquartered in Omaha, with InterNorth’s CEO continuing in that job. Within a year, those promises were broken. By then, the former CEO of Houston Natural had taken over the top job at InterNorth, the company had been renamed, and the headquarters had been moved to Houston. These switches were orchestrated by the new CEO – Ken Lay – and the name he chose was Enron. Fast forward 15 years to late 2001. Enron ran into the troubles we’ve heard so much about and borrowed money from Dynegy, putting up the Northern Natural pipeline operation as collateral. The two companies quickly had a falling out, and the pipeline’s ownership moved to Dynegy. That company, in turn, soon encountered severe financial problems of its own. MEHC received a call on Friday, July 26, from Dynegy, which was looking for a quick and certain cash sale of the pipeline. Dynegy phoned the right party: On July 29, we signed a contract, and shortly thereafter Northern Natural returned home. When 2001 began, Charlie and I had no idea that Berkshire would be moving into the pipeline business. But upon completion of the Kern River expansion, MEHC will transport about 8% of all gas used in the U.S. We continue to look for large energy-related assets, though in the electric utility field PUHCA constrains what we can do.

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几年前,MEHC 有点偶然地进入了住宅房地产经纪这一行。不过,我们此后大举扩张这块业务,绝非偶然。而且,我们未来很可能会继续扩张。我们将这块业务称为 HomeServices of America。然而,在它所服务的各个社区,它仍沿用所收购企业的本地名称来经营,比如奥马哈的 CBS、明尼阿波利斯的 Edina Realty、得梅因的 Iowa Realty。在我们经营的大多数都市区,我们都是明确的市场领头羊。HomeServices 目前是全美第二大住宅经纪公司。去年,作为买方、卖方或同为双方,我们参与了 370 亿美元的交易,比 2001 年增长了 100%。我们的增长主要来自 2002 年完成的三笔收购,其中最大的一笔是 Prudential California Realty。这家公司是洛杉矶县、橙县和圣迭戈县一带的房产中介龙头,去年参与了 160 亿美元的房屋成交。在极短时间内,公司 CEO 罗恩·佩尔捷就将 HomeServices 的收入和利润双双大幅提升。这门生意虽然注定会有周期性波动,但它是我们喜欢的生意,而且我们仍对其中明智的收购机会抱有胃口。

A few years ago, and somewhat by accident, MEHC found itself in the residential real estate brokerage business. It is no accident, however, that we have dramatically expanded the operation. Moreover, we are likely to keep on expanding in the future. We call this business HomeServices of America. In the various communities it serves, though, it operates under the names of the businesses it has acquired, such as CBS in Omaha, Edina Realty in Minneapolis and Iowa Realty in Des Moines. In most metropolitan areas in which we operate, we are the clear market leader. HomeServices is now the second largest residential brokerage business in the country. On one side or the other (or both), we participated in $37 billion of transactions last year, up 100% from 2001. Most of our growth came from three acquisitions we made during 2002, the largest of which was Prudential California Realty. Last year, this company, the leading realtor in a territory consisting of Los Angeles, Orange and San Diego Counties, participated in $16 billion of closings. In a very short period, Ron Peltier, the company’s CEO, has increased HomeServices’ revenues – and profits – dramatically. Though this business will always be cyclical, it’s one we like and in which we continue to have an appetite for sensible acquisitions.

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MEHC 的 CEO 戴夫·索科尔,以及他的重要搭档格雷格·阿贝尔,对伯克希尔来说都是极为宝贵的财富。他们既是交易高手,也是管理强手。伯克希尔随时准备向 MEHC 注入巨量资金——看戴夫和格雷格能将这摊事业推到多远,将会是一件乐事。

Dave Sokol, MEHC’s CEO, and Greg Abel, his key associate, are huge assets for Berkshire. They are dealmakers, and they are managers. Berkshire stands ready to inject massive amounts of money into MEHC – and it will be fun to watch how far Dave and Greg can take the business.

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财产/意外险的经济学 保险是我们的核心业务——尽管我们还有其他极为重要的业务。因此,要读懂伯克希尔,你就必须懂得如何评估一家保险公司。关键的决定因素有三:(1)这门生意能产生多少浮存金;(2)它的成本几何;(3)最要紧的一条,这两项因素的长期前景如何。先说浮存金:它是我们持有、却并不拥有的钱。在保险经营中,浮存金之所以存在,是因为保费在赔付之前就已收进来,这中间的时间差有时长达许多年。在此期间,保险公司拿这笔钱去投资。这桩美差通常也有个坏处:保险公司收到的保费,往往不够偿付它最终要赔的损失和费用,于是留下一笔“承保亏损”,这就是浮存金的成本。如果一门保险生意的浮存金成本,长期低于该公司另寻他途筹资的成本,那它就有价值;可要是浮存金成本高过市场资金利率,这门生意就成了一颗歪瓜。何况近年来利率一路走低,已经把过去还算能忍的承保亏损,变成了把保险生意重重拖进歪瓜行列的包袱。从历史上看,伯克希尔一向以极低的成本拿到浮存金。事实上,很多年份我们的成本还低于零——也就是说,替别人保管钱,反倒是别人付钱给我们。然而 2001 年,我们的成本糟得不像话,高达 12.8%,其中约莫一半要算在世贸中心的损失头上。再往前,1983、1984 年还有过更糟的年份。便宜的浮存金,从来不是理所当然的。下表按若干间隔年份,列出了自 36 年前我们收购国民赔偿公司、踏入这一行以来,伯克希尔各保险板块产生的浮存金(该公司的传统险种归在“其他主险”板块中)。为编制此表,我们这样计算浮存金——相对于保费规模,我们产生的浮存金数额相当庞大:先把未决损失准备金、损失理算准备金、分入再保险项下持有的资金和未到期保费准备金加起来,再减去与保险相关的应收款、预付的获取成本、预付税款以及分入再保险对应的递延费用。(听明白了吗?)

The Economics of Property/Casualty Insurance Our core business — though we have others of great importance — is insurance. To understand Berkshire, therefore, it is necessary that you understand how to evaluate an insurance company. The key determinants are: (1) the amount of float that the business generates; (2) its cost; and (3) most critical of all, the long-term outlook for both of these factors. To begin with, float is money we hold but don't own. In an insurance operation, float arises because premiums are received before losses are paid, an interval that sometimes extends over many years. During that time, the insurer invests the money. This pleasant activity typically carries with it a downside: The premiums that an insurer takes in usually do not cover the losses and expenses it eventually must pay. That leaves it running an “underwriting loss,” which is the cost of float. An insurance business has value if its cost of float over time is less than the cost the company would otherwise incur to obtain funds. But the business is a lemon if its cost of float is higher than market rates for money. Moreover, the downward trend of interest rates in recent years has transformed underwriting losses that formerly were tolerable into burdens that move insurance businesses deeply into the lemon category. Historically, Berkshire has obtained its float at a very low cost. Indeed, our cost has been less than zero in many years; that is, we’ve actually been paid for holding other people’s money. In 2001, however, our cost was terrible, coming in at 12.8%, about half of which was attributable to World Trade Center losses. Back in 1983-84, we had years that were even worse. There’s nothing automatic about cheap float. The table that follows shows (at intervals) the float generated by the various segments of Berkshire’s insurance operations since we entered the business 36 years ago upon acquiring National Indemnity Company (whose traditional lines are included in the segment “Other Primary”). For the table we have calculated our float — which we generate in large amounts relative to our premium volume — by adding net loss reserves, loss adjustment reserves, funds held under reinsurance assumed and unearned premium reserves, and then subtracting insurance-related receivables, prepaid acquisition costs, prepaid taxes and deferred charges applicable to assumed reinsurance. (Got that?)

年末浮存金(单位:百万美元) 年份 1967 1977 1987 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Yearend Float (in $ millions) Year 1967 1977 1987 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

GEICO

GEICO

2,917 3,125 3,444 3,943 4,251 4,678
2,917 3,125 3,444 3,943 4,251 4,678

通用再保险

General Re

其他再保险业务

Other Reinsurance

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

14,909 15,166 15,525 19,310 22,207
40 701 4,014 4,305 6,285 7,805 11,262 13,396
14,909 15,166 15,525 19,310 22,207
40 701 4,014 4,305 6,285 7,805 11,262 13,396

其他主险 20 131 807 455 415 403 598 685 943

Other Primary 20 131 807 455 415 403 598 685 943

总计 20 171 1,508 7,386 22,754 25,298 27,871 35,508 41,224

Total 20 171 1,508 7,386 22,754 25,298 27,871 35,508 41,224

去年我们的浮存金成本是 1%。正如我前面所说,考虑到 2002 年并未发生特大自然灾害,诸位对这一亮眼结果不宜过度兴奋。这类巨灾迟早会周期性地降临,届时我们的浮存金成本必将骤然飙升。

<<<END P 1>>>

Last year our cost of float was 1%. As I mentioned earlier, you should temper your enthusiasm about this favorable result given that no megacatastrophe occurred in 2002. We’re certain to get one of these disasters periodically, and when we do our float-cost will spike.

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我们 2002 年的业绩受到了两方面因素的拖累:一是通用再保险计提了一笔令人痛苦的费用,用以覆盖本应在更早年份就记为成本的损失;二是我们每年都会为追溯性再保险确认一笔“合意”的费用(这两项的详情请见下一节)。上述费用合计 17.5 亿美元,约占浮存金的 4.6%。幸运的是,我们 2002 年整体的承保表现极为出色,这让我们即使在扣除了前述费用之后,浮存金成本依然得以趋近于零。若无特大灾难发生,我预计 2003 年我们的浮存金成本将再次处于极低水平——甚至可能为负。在下文对各保险业务的逐一介绍中,各位将看到我为何如此乐观:随着时间的推移,我们的承保成果不仅将超越行业平均水平,还能以极低的成本为我们提供可用于投资的资金。

<<<END P 2>>>

Our 2002 results were hurt by 1) a painful charge at General Re for losses that should have been recorded as costs in earlier years, and 2) a “desirable” charge we incur annually for retroactive insurance (see the next section for more about these items). These costs totaled $1.75 billion, or about 4.6% of float. Fortunately, our overall underwriting experience on 2002 business was excellent, which allowed us, even after the charges noted, to approach a no-cost result. Absent a megacatastrophe, I expect our cost of float in 2003 to again be very low – perhaps even less than zero. In the rundown of our insurance operations that follows, you will see why I’m optimistic that, over time, our underwriting results will both surpass those achieved by the industry and deliver us investable funds at minimal cost.

保险业务

Insurance Operations

如果我们的保险业务要长期产出低成本浮存金,就必须做到三条:(a)承保时守铁一般的纪律;(b)准备金计提保守;(c)避免风险过度集中,以免某个被认为“不可能”的事件危及公司的偿付能力。除一家之外,我们所有主要保险业务都一直经受住了这些考验。那个例外就是通用再保险,去年为把它拉回正轨,公司里有太多事要做。我很高兴地告诉大家,在乔·布兰登的领导下,加上泰德·蒙特罗斯的鼎力相助,上述每一条战线都取得了巨大进展。1998 年我同意让伯克希尔与通用再保险合并时,我以为这家公司守住了我列出的这三条规则。几十年来我一直研究它的经营,看到的都是一以贯之的承保纪律和保守的准备金计提。合并之时,我没觉察出通用再保险的标准有半点松动。我大错特错。通用再保险的文化和做法早已发生实质性的变化,而管理层——连同我——都蒙在鼓里:公司对手头业务的定价严重偏低。不仅如此,通用再保险还积攒下一堆风险,一旦——比方说——恐怖分子在袭击美国时引爆几枚大当量核弹,这些风险就会是致命的。当然,那种规模的灾难发生概率极低,可保险公司的本分,就是把风险控制到即便“不可能”成真、财务依旧坚如磐石的地步。事实上,通用再保险若还是一家独立公司,单单世贸中心一役就足以危及它的存亡。世贸中心灾难发生时,暴露出通用再保险经营上的种种弱点,这些本该由我更早察觉。但我是走运的:乔和泰德就在阵中,刚被授予更大的权限,正急切地想尽快纠正过去的错误。他们知道该怎么做——也确实做到了。不过,保单跑完需要时间,2002 年过了大半,我们才把核、生、化(NCB)风险的集中度压到可承受的水平。这个问题如今已翻篇。另一条战线上,通用再保险的承保态度也焕然一新:整个机构如今都明白,我们只做定价合理的业务,哪怕这会拖累业务量。乔和泰德只用一个标尺衡量自己——通用再保险的承保盈利。规模根本不算数。最后,我们正竭尽全力把准备金算准。这一点做不到,我们就摸不清真实成本;而任何一家不知道自己成本几何的保险公司,都在朝着大麻烦一路走去。

If our insurance operations are to generate low-cost float over time, they must: (a) underwrite with unwavering discipline; (b) reserve conservatively; and (c) avoid an aggregation of exposures that would allow a supposedly “impossible” incident to threaten their solvency. All of our major insurance businesses, with one exception, have regularly met those tests. The exception is General Re, and there was much to do at that company last year to get it up to snuff. I’m delighted to report that under Joe Brandon’s leadership, and with yeoman assistance by Tad Montross, enormous progress has been made on each of the fronts described. When I agreed in 1998 to merge Berkshire with Gen Re, I thought that company stuck to the three rules I’ve enumerated. I had studied the operation for decades and had observed underwriting discipline that was consistent and reserving that was conservative. At merger time, I detected no slippage in Gen Re’s standards. I was dead wrong. Gen Re’s culture and practices had substantially changed and unbeknownst to management – and to me – the company was grossly mispricing its current business. In addition, Gen Re had accumulated an aggregation of risks that would have been fatal had, say, terrorists detonated several largescale nuclear bombs in an attack on the U.S. A disaster of that scope was highly improbable, of course, but it is up to insurers to limit their risks in a manner that leaves their finances rock-solid if the “impossible” happens. Indeed, had Gen Re remained independent, the World Trade Center attack alone would have threatened the company’s existence. When the WTC disaster occurred, it exposed weaknesses in Gen Re’s operations that I should have detected earlier. But I was lucky: Joe and Tad were on hand, freshly endowed with increased authority and eager to rapidly correct the errors of the past. They knew what to do – and they did it. It takes time for insurance policies to run off, however, and 2002 was well along before we managed to reduce our aggregation of nuclear, chemical and biological risk (NCB) to a tolerable level. That problem is now behind us. On another front, Gen Re’s underwriting attitude has been dramatically altered: The entire organization now understands that we wish to write only properly-priced business, whatever the effect on volume. Joe and Tad judge themselves only by Gen Re’s underwriting profitability. Size simply doesn’t count. Finally, we are making every effort to get our reserving right. If we fail at that, we can’t know our true costs. And any insurer that has no idea what its costs are is heading for big trouble.

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截至 2001 年底,通用再保险试图为此前发生、尚未赔付的所有损失足额计提准备金——结果我们差得离谱。因此,公司 2002 年的承保业绩被额外多计的 13.1 亿美元拖了后腿,这笔钱是为修正早年估算失误而入账的。回望通用再保险暴露出来的准备金差错,有句乡村歌曲的歌词很贴切:“真希望我今天不知道当初就不知道的事。”我可以向各位保证,往后避免准备金不足是我们的头等大事;但我没法保证一定成功。多数意外险经理人天生就倾向于少提准备金,要克服这种要命的偏差,他们必须具备一种特定的心态——说来你或许会意外,这跟精算本事毫无关系。此外,再保险公司要把准备金提准,比直接保险公司难得多。尽管如此,在伯克希尔,我们的准备金计提总体是成功的,我们下定决心要在通用再保险也做到这一点。总而言之,我相信通用再保险如今已蓄势待发,能为伯克希尔源源不断地提供大量零成本浮存金,而那种足以让公司沉船的巨灾风险也已被清除。这家公司依旧握有我过去多次谈到的重要竞争优势。去年它又添了一项分量十足的优势:此前同为 AAA 评级的三家全球最大竞争对手,各自都至少被一家评级机构调降。在这些巨头之中,全线维持 AAA 评级的通用再保险,如今在财务实力上已自成一档。没有哪项特质比这更重要。相形之下,最近一家全球最大的再保险公司——一家常被顶尖经纪商推荐给直接保险公司的公司——几乎停止了理赔,连那些既有效、又已到期的索赔也一并搁置。这家公司欠着数百家直接保险公司数十亿美元,如今这些公司都面临大额减记。“便宜”的再保险是傻瓜的买卖:当一家保险公司今天掏钱,换取再保险公司十年二十年后赔付的承诺时,除了业内最强的那家,与任何一家打交道都很危险——甚至可能是致命的。为乔和泰德在 2002 年立下的功劳,伯克希尔的股东欠他俩一声重重的道谢。这一年他们工作之辛苦,是我不忍加诸任何人的——而这份辛苦,正在结出回报。

At yearend 2001, General Re attempted to reserve adequately for all losses that had occurred prior to that date and were not yet paid – but we failed badly. Therefore the company’s 2002 underwriting results were penalized by an additional $1.31 billion that we recorded to correct the estimation mistakes of earlier years. When I review the reserving errors that have been uncovered at General Re, a line from a country song seems apt: “I wish I didn’t know now what I didn’t know then.” I can promise you that our top priority going forward is to avoid inadequate reserving. But I can’t guarantee success. The natural tendency of most casualty-insurance managers is to underreserve, and they must have a particular mindset – which, it may surprise you, has nothing to do with actuarial expertise – if they are to overcome this devastating bias. Additionally, a reinsurer faces far more difficulties in reserving properly than does a primary insurer. Nevertheless, at Berkshire, we have generally been successful in our reserving, and we are determined to be at General Re as well. In summary, I believe General Re is now well positioned to deliver huge amounts of no-cost float to Berkshire and that its sink-the-ship catastrophe risk has been eliminated. The company still possesses the important competitive strengths that I’ve outlined in the past. And it gained another highly significant advantage last year when each of its three largest worldwide competitors, previously rated AAA, was demoted by at least one rating agency. Among the giants, General Re, rated AAA across-the-board, is now in a class by itself in respect to financial strength. No attribute is more important. Recently, in contrast, one of the world’s largest reinsurers – a company regularly recommended to primary insurers by leading brokers – has all but ceased paying claims, including those both valid and due. This company owes many billions of dollars to hundreds of primary insurers who now face massive write-offs. “Cheap” reinsurance is a fool’s bargain: When an insurer lays out money today in exchange for a reinsurer’s promise to pay a decade or two later, it’s dangerous – and possibly life-threatening – for the insurer to deal with any but the strongest reinsurer around. Berkshire shareholders owe Joe and Tad a huge thank you for their accomplishments in 2002. They worked harder during the year than I would wish for anyone – and it is paying off.

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2002 年,GEICO 顺风顺水到让我们真想掐自己一把。增长强劲,利润出众,保单续保率上升,销售效率也大幅提高。这些势头在 2003 年初依旧延续。这一切都要感谢托尼·奈斯利。凡是认识他的人都会证实,托尼爱上 GEICO 已有 41 年——从他 18 岁进公司那天起——而他的成绩,正是这份热爱的写照。他为我们替保单持有人省下的钱感到自豪:跟其他保险公司的平均收费相比,每年约省下 10 亿美元。他为我们给这些客户提供的服务感到自豪:在一项重要的行业调查中,GEICO 最近的排名高过所有主要竞争对手。他为手下 19,162 名同事感到自豪:凭着去年的出色业绩,他们拿到了相当于底薪 19% 的利润分成。他还为自己给伯克希尔股东带来的、节节攀升的利润感到自豪。1996 年伯克希尔全资收购 GEICO 时,它的保费收入是 29 亿美元;去年已达 69 亿美元,且增长空间仍然充裕。尤其振奋人心的是公司的互联网业务,其新增保单去年增长了 75%。欢迎上 GEICO.com 看看(或拨打 800-847-7536)。在大多数州,股东还能享受 8% 的专属折扣。关于 GEICO 2002 年的盈利,还有一个脚注,恰好印证了保险公司为何只该与最强的再保险公司打交道。1981 至 1983 年间,当时执掌 GEICO 的高管决定试水商业伞式责任险和产品责任险。风险看起来不大:公司在这一险种上只收进 305.1 万美元保费,又几乎悉数拿去买再保险——花掉 297.9 万美元——好把损失控住。GEICO 自留了那一小部分风险,只换来微不足道的 7.2 万美元作为补偿。可就这么小小咬了一口苹果,已足够让这段经历刻骨铭心。GEICO 在这桩买卖上的损失,如今累计高达惊人的 9410 万美元,约为其净保费收入的 130,000%。在全部损失中,赖账再保险公司无法收回的应收款就占了不下 9030 万美元(含 2002 年计提的 1900 万美元)。所谓“便宜”的再保险,也就这么回事。

At GEICO, everything went so well in 2002 that we should pinch ourselves. Growth was substantial, profits were outstanding, policyholder retention was up and sales productivity jumped significantly. These trends continue in early 2003. Thank Tony Nicely for all of this. As anyone who knows him will attest, Tony has been in love with GEICO for 41 years – ever since he went to work for the company at 18 – and his results reflect this passion. He is proud of the money we save policyholders – about $1 billion annually versus what other insurers, on average, would have charged them. He is proud of the service we provide these policyholders: In a key industry survey, GEICO was recently ranked above all major competitors. He is proud of his 19,162 associates, who last year were awarded profit-sharing payments equal to 19% of their base salary because of the splendid results they achieved. And he is proud of the growing profits he delivers to Berkshire shareholders. GEICO took in $2.9 billion in premiums when Berkshire acquired full ownership in 1996. Last year, its volume was $6.9 billion, with plenty of growth to come. Particularly promising is the company’s Internet operation, whose new business grew by 75% last year. Check us out at GEICO.com (or call 800847-7536). In most states, shareholders get a special 8% discount. Here’s one footnote to GEICO’s 2002 earnings that underscores the need for insurers to do business with only the strongest of reinsurers. In 1981-1983, the managers then running GEICO decided to try their hand at writing commercial umbrella and product liability insurance. The risks seemed modest: the company took in only $3,051,000 from this line and used almost all of it – $2,979,000 – to buy reinsurance in order to limit its losses. GEICO was left with a paltry $72,000 as compensation for the minor portion of the risk that it retained. But this small bite of the apple was more than enough to make the experience memorable. GEICO’s losses from this venture now total a breathtaking $94.1 million or about 130,000% of the net premium it received. Of the total loss, uncollectable receivables from deadbeat reinsurers account for no less than $90.3 million (including $19 million charged in 2002). So much for “cheap” reinsurance.

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去年我们的浮存金成本之所以那么低,阿吉特·贾恩的再保险部门是头号功臣。如果伯克希尔的年报里哪天要放一张照片,那必定是阿吉特的——还得是彩色的!阿吉特这块业务已积攒起 134 亿美元浮存金,放眼全球,此前只有屈指可数的几家保险公司积累过比这更多的浮存金。他 1986 年白手起家做到这一步,而时至今日,麾下也不过 20 号人。最要紧的是,他做出了承保利润。若把接下来我要抛给你的一点会计门道也算进去,他的利润就更了不起了。所以,准备好啃这口菠菜吧(要是借贷记账实在不合你的胃口,跳过下面两段也行)。阿吉特 2002 年 5.34 亿美元的承保利润,是在其业务确认了 4.28 亿美元费用之后实现的——这笔费用,源自他多年来承保的“追溯”保险。在这一行里,我们从另一家保险公司手中接过一项赔付义务:为其已经发生、尚未支付的损失赔到某个上限——这些事故往往几十年前就发生了(比方说,一名 1980 年受伤的工人,此后终生按月领取赔偿)。在这类安排中,对方一次性付给我们一大笔保费,但这笔保费低于我们预计要赔的金额。我们乐意接受这个差额,因为:a)我们的赔付有上限;b)在真正赔出去之前,这笔钱可供我们使用,而赔付往往一拖就是十年甚至更久。我们账上背着的 66 亿美元石棉和环境损失准备金中,约有 80% 来自这种有上限的合同,成本因此不会失控暴涨。每承保一份追溯保单,我们会立即同时记下保费和一笔预计损失准备金,两者之差记为一项资产,名曰“递延费用——分入再保险”。这可不是个小数目:到年底,所有追溯保单的这项资产合计 34 亿美元。随后,我们按每份保单的预期存续期,将这项资产逐年摊销,计入损益。这些费用——2002 年为 4.4 亿美元,含通用再保险的部分——会造成承保亏损,但这是刻意为之、也是我们乐见的亏损。即便报告业绩被这样拖累,阿吉特去年仍做出了可观的承保盈利。不过我们要强调:阿吉特这块业务承担的风险是巨大的——远远超过世上任何一家保险公司的自留额。因此,单单一个事件,就可能让阿吉特在某个季度或某一年的业绩大起大落。这一点丝毫不困扰我们:只要报酬合适,别人避之不及的短期波动,我们乐意接过来。在伯克希尔,我们宁愿长期赚一个起伏不定的 15%,也不要一个平稳的 12%。你若在股东大会上碰见阿吉特,请深深鞠上一躬。

Ajit Jain’s reinsurance division was the major reason our float cost us so little last year. If we ever put a photo in a Berkshire annual report, it will be of Ajit. In color! Ajit’s operation has amassed $13.4 billion of float, more than all but a handful of insurers have ever built up. He accomplished this from a standing start in 1986, and even now has a workforce numbering only 20. And, most important, he has produced underwriting profits. His profits are particularly remarkable if you factor in some accounting arcana that I am about to lay on you. So prepare to eat your spinach (or, alternatively, if debits and credits aren’t your thing, skip the next two paragraphs). Ajit’s 2002 underwriting profit of $534 million came after his operation recognized a charge of $428 million attributable to “retroactive” insurance he has written over the years. In this line of business, we assume from another insurer the obligation to pay up to a specified amount for losses they have already incurred – often for events that took place decades earlier – but that are yet to be paid (for example, because a worker hurt in 1980 will receive monthly payments for life). In these arrangements, an insurer pays us a large upfront premium, but one that is less than the losses we expect to pay. We willingly accept this differential because a) our payments are capped, and b) we get to use the money until loss payments are actually made, with these often stretching out over a decade or more. About 80% of the $6.6 billion in asbestos and environmental loss reserves that we carry arises from capped contracts, whose costs consequently can’t skyrocket. When we write a retroactive policy, we immediately record both the premium and a reserve for the expected losses. The difference between the two is entered as an asset entitled “deferred charges – reinsurance assumed.” This is no small item: at yearend, for all retroactive policies, it was $3.4 billion. We then amortize this asset downward by charges to income over the expected life of each policy. These charges – $440 million in 2002, including charges at Gen Re – create an underwriting loss, but one that is intentional and desirable. And even after this drag on reported results, Ajit achieved a large underwriting gain last year. We want to emphasize, however, that we assume risks in Ajit’s operation that are huge – far larger than those retained by any other insurer in the world. Therefore, a single event could cause a major swing in Ajit’s results in any given quarter or year. That bothers us not at all: As long as we are paid appropriately, we love taking on short-term volatility that others wish to shed. At Berkshire, we would rather earn a lumpy 15% over time than a smooth 12%. If you see Ajit at our annual meeting, bow deeply.

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伯克希尔旗下那些较小的保险公司,去年表现堪称出色。它们的浮存金合计增长了 38%,还实现了 3200 万美元的承保利润,相当于保费的 4.5%。这些业务合到一处,足以拼成全美最好的保险公司之一。不过,这组数字里也包含了我们加州工伤保险业务惨不忍睹的成绩。那块业务,我们还有功课要补;同样在那块业务上,我们的准备金计提也严重失准。在把这门生意琢磨明白之前,我们会让它维持在小规模。为 2002 年这个了不起的年份,我们要感谢罗德·埃尔德里德、约翰·基泽、汤姆·纳尼、唐·托尔和唐·沃斯特。他们为你手中的伯克希尔投资增添了大量价值。

Berkshire’s smaller insurers had an outstanding year. Their aggregate float grew by 38%, and they realized an underwriting profit of $32 million, or 4.5% of premiums. Collectively, these operations would make one of the finest insurance companies in the country. Included in these figures, however, were terrible results in our California workers’ compensation operation. There, we have work to do. There, too, our reserving severely missed the mark. Until we figure out how to get this business right, we will keep it small. For the fabulous year they had in 2002, we thank Rod Eldred, John Kizer, Tom Nerney, Don Towle and Don Wurster. They added a lot of value to your Berkshire investment.

报告盈利的来源

Sources of Reported Earnings

下表列出了伯克希尔报告利润的主要来源。你会注意到,“收购会计调整”这一项在 2002 年骤降,原因是当年 GAAP 规则有变,不再要求摊销商誉。这一变化抬高了我们的报告利润,却丝毫不影响我们的经济利润。

The table that follows shows the main sources of Berkshire’s reported earnings. You will notice that “Purchase-Accounting Adjustments” dropped sharply in 2002, the reason being that GAAP rules changed then, no longer requiring the amortization of goodwill. This change increases our reported earnings, but has no effect on our economic earnings.

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(单位:百万美元)

(in millions)

经营利润:
保险集团:
承保 – 通用再保险
承保 – 伯克希尔集团
承保 – GEICO
承保 – 其他主要业务
净投资收益
服装(1)
建材产品(2)
金融与金融产品业务
飞行服务
中美能源(持股 80%)
零售业务
斯科特-费泽(不含金融业务)
肖氏工业(3)
其他业务
并购会计调整
公司利息支出
股东指定捐赠
其他
经营利润合计
投资收益资本利得
所有实体利润合计
Operating Earnings:
Insurance Group:
Underwriting – General Re....................................
Underwriting – Berkshire Group ...........................
Underwriting – GEICO..........................................
Underwriting – Other Primary ...............................
Net Investment Income..........................................
Apparel(1) ..................................................................
Building Products(2) ..................................................
Finance and Financial Products Business .................
Flight Services ..........................................................
MidAmerican Energy (80% owned).........................
Retail Operations ......................................................
Scott Fetzer (excluding finance operation) ...............
Shaw Industries(3)......................................................
Other Businesses.......................................................
Purchase-Accounting Adjustments...........................
Corporate Interest Expense.......................................
Shareholder-Designated Contributions.....................
Other .........................................................................
Operating Earnings......................................................
Capital Gains from Investments ..................................
Total Earnings – All Entities .......................................

税前利润 2002 年 2001 年

Pre-Tax Earnings 2002 2001

伯克希尔应占净收益(税后及少数股东权益后) 2002 年 2001 年

Berkshire’s Share of Net Earnings (after taxes and Minority interests) 2002 2001

经营收益:保险集团:2002年税前收益20012002少数股东权益)2001
承保——通用再保险$(1,393)$(3,671)$(930)$(2,391)
承保——伯克希尔集团534(647)347(433)
承保——GEICO416221271144
承保——其他主要业务32302018
净投资收益3,0502,8242,0961,968
服装(1)229(33)156(28)
建筑产品(2)516461313287
金融与金融产品业务1,016519659336
飞行服务225186133105
MidAmerican Energy(持股80%)613565359230
零售运营16617597101
斯科特·费策(不含金融业务)1291298383
Shaw Industries(3)424292258156
其他业务256212160131
购买法会计调整(119)(726)(65)(699)
公司利息费用(86)(92)(55)(60)
股东指定缴款(17)(17)(11)(11)
其他19251216
经营收益6,0104533,903(47)
投资资本利得6031,320383842
所有实体总盈利$6,613$1,773$4,286$ 795
Operating Earnings: Insurance Group:Pre-Tax Earnings 200220012002Minority interests) 2001
Underwriting – General Re$(1,393)$(3,671)$(930)$(2,391)
Underwriting – Berkshire Group534(647)347(433)
Underwriting – GEICO416221271144
Underwriting – Other Primary32302018
Net Investment Income3,0502,8242,0961,968
Apparel(1)229(33)156(28)
Building Products(2)516461313287
Finance and Financial Products Business1,016519659336
Flight Services225186133105
MidAmerican Energy (80% owned)613565359230
Retail Operations16617597101
Scott Fetzer (excluding finance operation)1291298383
Shaw Industries(3)424292258156
Other Businesses256212160131
Purchase-Accounting Adjustments(119)(726)(65)(699)
Corporate Interest Expense(86)(92)(55)(60)
Shareholder-Designated Contributions(17)(17)(11)(11)
Other19251216
Operating Earnings6,0104533,903(47)
Capital Gains from Investments6031,320383842
Total Earnings – All Entities$6,613$1,773$4,286$ 795

包括自 2002 年 4 月 30 日起的 Fruit of the Loom 和自 2002 年 9 月 4 日起的 Garan。

Includes Fruit of the Loom from April 30, 2002 and Garan from September 4, 2002.

(2)
(2)

包括自 2001 年 2 月 27 日起的约翰斯·曼维尔公司(Johns Manville)以及自 2001 年 7 月 31 日起的米泰克公司(MiTek)。

Includes Johns Manville from February 27, 2001 and MiTek from July 31, 2001.

(3)
(3)

自收购日(2001 年 1 月 8 日)起算。

From date of acquisition, January 8, 2001.

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

$(2,391) (433) 144 18 1,968 (28) 287 336 105 230 101 83 156 131 (699) (60) (11) 16 (47) 842 $ 795
$(2,391) (433) 144 18 1,968 (28) 287 336 105 230 101 83 156 131 (699) (60) (11) 16 (47) 842 $ 795

以下是我们的非保险业务重大进展摘要:

Here’s a summary of major developments at our non-insurance businesses: •

中美能源公司 2002 年的利润有所增长,今年很可能再增。无论已实现的还是预期中的增量,大部分都来自前面提到的那几笔收购。为给这些收购筹资,伯克希尔购入了 12.73 亿美元的中美能源次级债(使我们持有的这些 11% 利率债券总额达到 17.28 亿美元),另外还投了 4.02 亿美元买入一种“普通股等价”股票。按完全稀释口径计算,我们现在持有中美能源 80.2% 的股权。中美能源的财务报表详见第 37 页。

MidAmerican Energy’s earnings grew in 2002 and will likely do so again this year. Most of the increase, both present and expected, results from the acquisitions described earlier. To fund these, Berkshire purchased $1,273 million of MidAmerican junior debt (bringing our total holdings of these 11% obligations to $1,728 million) and also invested $402 million in a “common-equivalent” stock. We now own (on a fully-diluted basis) 80.2% of MidAmerican’s equity. MidAmerican’s financial statements are presented in detail on page 37.

去年我告诉过各位,德克斯特的问题让我们的鞋业遭受了巨额亏损。多亏 H.H. 布朗公司的弗兰克·鲁尼和吉姆·伊斯勒,德克斯特已经扭亏为盈。即便算上收拾那摊子的成本,去年我们在鞋业上仍赚了 2400 万美元,比 2001 年好转了 7000 万美元。贾斯汀公司的兰迪·沃森也为这一改善出了力,他在大幅压缩投入资本的同时,把利润率显著提了上去。鞋是门难做的生意,但我们有一流的经理人,相信将来投在这块业务上的资本,能带来合理的回报。

Last year I told you of the problems at Dexter that led to a huge loss in our shoe business. Thanks to Frank Rooney and Jim Issler of H.H. Brown, the Dexter operation has been turned around. Despite the cost of unwinding our problems there, we earned $24 million in shoes last year, an upward swing of $70 million from 2001. Randy Watson at Justin also contributed to this improvement, increasing margins significantly while trimming invested capital. Shoes are a tough business, but we have terrific managers and believe that in the future we will earn reasonable returns on the capital we employ in this operation.

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在家居用品和珠宝零售普遍平淡的一年里,我们的业务却做得不错。八家零售业务中,表现最好的是得梅因的 Homemaker's。在那里,才干出众的梅施曼家族在销售额和利润上都取得了亮眼的增长。内布拉斯加家具城将于 8 月在堪萨斯城都会区开出一家重磅新店。这家店零售面积达 45 万平方英尺,很有可能成为全美销量第二高的家具店——榜首则是奥马哈那家。希望住在堪萨斯城一带的伯克希尔股东,能来捧个开业的场(往后也常来)。

In a so-so year for home-furnishing and jewelry retailers, our operations did well. Among our eight retailing operations, the best performer was Homemaker’s in Des Moines. There, the talented Merschman family achieved outstanding gains in both sales and profits. Nebraska Furniture Mart will open a new blockbuster store in metropolitan Kansas City in August. With 450,000 square feet of retail space, it could well produce the second largest volume of any furniture store in the country – the Omaha operation being the national champion. I hope Berkshire shareholders in the Kansas City area will come out for the opening (and keep coming).

我们的住宅及建筑相关业务——阿克米砖业、本杰明·摩尔涂料、约翰斯·曼维尔、米泰克和肖工业——去年贡献了 9.41 亿美元的税前利润。尤为亮眼的是肖工业,其利润从 2001 年的 2.92 亿美元跃升至 4.24 亿美元。鲍勃·肖和朱利安·索尔是极其出色的经营者。去年地毯价格只涨了 1%,但肖工业靠生产率的提升和一流的费用管控,把利润率显著做了上去。在伯克希尔,我们把成本意识奉为珍宝。我们的榜样是一位寡妇,她去当地报馆刊登讣告。被告知每字收费 25 美分后,她开口只要“弗雷德·布朗辞世”六个字。可对方又说,最低按七个字算。“那好,”这位丧夫的女士答道,“就写‘弗雷德·布朗辞世,高尔夫球杆出售’。”

Our home and construction-related businesses – Acme Brick, Benjamin Moore Paint, JohnsManville, MiTek and Shaw – delivered $941 million of pre-tax earnings last year. Of particular significance was Shaw’s gain from $292 million in 2001 to $424 million. Bob Shaw and Julian Saul are terrific operators. Carpet prices increased only 1% last year, but Shaw’s productivity gains and excellent expense control delivered significantly improved margins. We cherish cost-consciousness at Berkshire. Our model is the widow who went to the local newspaper to place an obituary notice. Told there was a 25-cents-a-word charge, she requested “Fred Brown died.” She was then informed there was a seven-word minimum. “Okay” the bereaved woman replied, “make it ‘Fred Brown died, golf clubs for sale’.”

飞行服务业务的盈利去年有所增长——但这纯粹是因为我们出售 FlightSafety Boeing 公司 50% 的权益,实现了一笔 6000 万美元的特殊税前收益。若剔除这笔收益,我们培训业务的盈利本会随公务航空活动的放缓而略有下滑。FlightSafety 的培训依旧是全行业的黄金标准,我们预计未来几年还会增长。在分时所有权业务 NetJets 上,我们在四家公司的竞争中一骑绝尘。联邦航空管理局(FAA)的记录显示,2002 年我们的行业份额为 75%,也就是说,客户从我们这里购买或租赁的飞机,其价值是另外三家竞争对手总和的三倍。去年,我们的机队飞了 1.327 亿海里,把客户送往 130 个国家。这份领先地位,直接归功于 NetJets 的 CEO 里奇·桑图利。这门生意是他 1986 年首创的,此后他始终对最高水准的服务、安全与安保怀着一份不肯妥协的执着。里奇、查理和我坚持,飞机(和机组)必须配得上载着我们自己的家人——因为它们确实常常这么做。尽管 NetJets 在 2002 年创下收入纪录,公司却再度亏损。美国业务的一点小利,被欧洲业务的亏损吞没还不止。整体来看,分时所有权行业去年亏损严重,2003 年几乎可以肯定还是这个结局。摆在眼前的事实是:飞机运营起来成本高昂。但假以时日,这一经济现实反倒应当对我们有利,因为对许许多多公司来说,公务机是不可或缺的经营工具。而对其中大多数公司而言,无论作为主力供应商还是补充供应商,NetJets 都极具说服力。许多企业若改乘我们的飞机,每年能省下数百万美元;实际上,有些大公司一年省下的钱可能超过 1000 万美元。同样重要的是,用了我们的服务,这些公司的实际运营能力还会提升。哪怕只持有一架 NetJets 飞机的部分产权,客户也能让好几架飞机同时升空。此外,通过我们提供的互换安排,持有某一架飞机部分权益的客户,可以改乘另外 12 种机型中的任意一种,视任务需要挑最合适的那架。(我的一个妹妹持有一架猎鹰 2000 的部分产权,用它去夏威夷;但——巴菲特家的基因作祟——在美国国内飞短途时,她会换成更省钱的奖状 Excel。)NetJets 的客户名单,印证了我们能给大企业带来的好处。就拿通用电气来说:它自己就有一支庞大的机队,对如何高效、经济地使用飞机更是行家里手。而它,正是我们最大的客户。

Earnings from flight services increased last year – but only because we realized a special pre-tax gain of $60 million from the sale of our 50% interest in FlightSafety Boeing. Without this gain, earnings from our training business would have fallen slightly in concert with the slowdown in business-aviation activity. FlightSafety training continues to be the gold standard for the industry, and we expect growth in the years to come. At NetJets, our fractional-ownership operation, we are the runaway leader of the four-company field. FAA records indicate that our industry share in 2002 was 75%, meaning that clients purchased or leased planes from us that were valued at triple those recorded by our three competitors combined. Last year, our fleet flew 132.7 million nautical miles, taking clients to 130 countries. Our preeminence is directly attributable to Rich Santulli, NetJets’ CEO. He invented the business in 1986 and ever since has exhibited an unbending devotion to the highest levels of service, safety and security. Rich, Charlie and I insist on planes (and personnel) worthy of carrying our own families – because they regularly do. Though NetJets revenues set a record in 2002, the company again lost money. A small profit in the U.S. was more than offset by losses in Europe. Overall, the fractional-ownership industry lost significant sums last year, and that is almost certain to be the outcome in 2003 as well. The bald fact is that airplanes are costly to operate. Over time, this economic reality should work to our advantage, given that for a great many companies, private aircraft are an essential business tool. And for most of these companies, NetJets makes compelling sense as either a primary or supplementary supplier of the aircraft they need. Many businesses could save millions of dollars annually by flying with us. Indeed, the yearly savings at some large companies could exceed $10 million. Equally important, these companies would actually increase their operational capabilities by using us. A fractional ownership of a single NetJets plane allows a client to have several planes in the air simultaneously. Additionally, through the interchange arrangement we make available, an owner of an interest in one plane can fly any of 12 other models, using whatever plane makes most sense for a mission. (One of my sisters owns a fraction of a Falcon 2000, which she uses for trips to Hawaii, but – exhibiting the Buffett gene – she interchanges to a more economical Citation Excel for short trips in the U.S.) The roster of NetJets users confirms the advantages we offer major businesses. Take General Electric, for example. It has a large fleet of its own but also has an unsurpassed knowledge of how to utilize aircraft effectively and economically. And it is our largest customer.

我们的金融及金融产品这条线涵盖多项业务,其中涉及高等级固定收益证券的某些操作,在 2002 年利润颇丰。这块的收益或许还能再持续一阵子,但假以时日必定减少——甚至彻底消失。

Our finance and financial products line covers a variety of operations, among them certain activities in high-grade fixed-income securities that proved highly profitable in 2002. Earnings in this arena will probably continue for a while, but are certain to decrease – and perhaps disappear – in time.

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这一类别中,还包括我们经由 Berkadia 投资 Finova 所得的一股收益——它令人相当满意,却正在迅速缩减(去年年报中已有介绍)。我们的合作伙伴 Leucadia National Corp. 把这块业务打理得极为老到,心甘情愿地扛下了远超其份额的重活。我喜欢这样的分工,也盼着日后能与 Leucadia 再度联手。不利的一面是,金融这条线还包括通用再保险证券公司——一家做衍生品和交易的实体。这家公司去年税前亏损 1.73 亿美元,这一结果,某种程度上是对它早年采用的那套虽属标准、却有缺陷的会计处理的迟来清算。事实上,衍生品值得好好审视一番——既要看使用者所用的会计手法,也要看它们可能给单个公司乃至整个经济埋下的隐患。

This category also includes a highly satisfactory – but rapidly diminishing – income stream from our Berkadia investment in Finova (described in last year’s report). Our partner, Leucadia National Corp., has managed this operation with great skill, willingly doing far more than its share of the heavy lifting. I like this division of labor and hope to join with Leucadia in future transactions. On the minus side, the Finance line also includes the operations of General Re Securities, a derivatives and trading business. This entity lost $173 million pre-tax last year, a result that, in part, is a belated acknowledgment of faulty, albeit standard, accounting it used in earlier periods. Derivatives, in fact, deserve an extensive look, both in respect to the accounting their users employ and to the problems they may pose for both individual companies and our economy.

衍生品

Derivatives

对于衍生品以及与之相伴的交易活动,查理和我看法完全一致:我们把它们视为定时炸弹,无论对参与交易的各方,还是对整个经济体系而言都是如此。抛出这个判断之后(稍后我会再回来),先容我退一步,解释一下什么是衍生品——只是这解释必然笼统,因为“衍生品”一词涵盖的金融合约五花八门,范围广得惊人。说到底,这类工具约定在未来某个日期进行资金交割,交割金额由一项或多项参考指标决定,比如利率、股价或汇率。举例来说,你要是做多或做空一份标普 500 指数期货合约,就参与了一笔极简单的衍生品交易——盈亏随指数的涨跌而来。衍生品合约的期限长短不一(有时长达 20 年甚至更久),其价值往往与好几个变量挂钩。除非合约有抵押品或第三方担保,否则它最终值多少,还取决于交易对手的信用状况。而在此期间,也就是合约结清之前,交易双方就已在各自的当期利润表里记下盈亏——数额常常巨大——可实际上一分钱都没易手。衍生品合约的花样,只受人的想象力限制(有时候看起来,是疯子的想象力)。比如在安然,就有要在许多年后才交割的新闻纸和宽带衍生品被记上了账。又或者,你想立一份合约,赌 2020 年内布拉斯加会生下多少对双胞胎——没问题,只要价钱到位,你轻轻松松就能找到一个乐意接盘的对手。我们收购通用再保险时,一并接手了通用再保险证券——一家查理和我都不想要、认定它很危险的衍生品交易商。我们试图把这块业务卖掉,没能成功,如今正着手关停它。可关停一家衍生品交易商,说起来容易做起来难。要彻底抽身,还得再花上好些年(尽管我们的敞口每天都在缩小)。事实上,再保险和衍生品这两门生意很像:都跟地狱一样——进去容易,出来几乎不可能。在这两个行当里,合约一旦签下——它可能要求你几十年后掏出一大笔钱——你通常就被套牢了。诚然,有些法子能把风险甩给别人,但这类招数大多会给你留下一截脱不掉的尾巴责任。再保险和衍生品还有一个共同点:两者报出的利润,往往被离谱地夸大。这是因为当期利润在很大程度上建立在估算之上,而这些估算错在哪里,可能许多年后才会露馅。这些错误通常是无心的,只反映了人性中那点对自己承诺往好处想的倾向。可衍生品的交易各方,在记账上还有极强的作弊动机。那些做衍生品的人,其报酬通常(全部或部分)取决于按市值计价算出的“利润”。但很多时候,根本不存在真实的市场(想想我们那份赌双胞胎的合约),于是就改用“按模型计价”。这一改,就可能招来大麻烦。一般规律是,参考指标越多、结算日越远的合约,越给交易对手留出用天马行空的假设做文章的空间。就拿双胞胎那份合约来说,双方大可各用一套模型,好让彼此都能在多年里显示出可观的利润。极端情形下,按模型计价就堕落成我所谓的按神话计价。当然,内外部审计师都会核查这些数字,可这活儿并不轻松。举个例子,通用再保险证券到年底(业务已清算了十个月)仍有 14,384 份未平仓

Charlie and I are of one mind in how we feel about derivatives and the trading activities that go with them: We view them as time bombs, both for the parties that deal in them and the economic system. Having delivered that thought, which I’ll get back to, let me retreat to explaining derivatives, though the explanation must be general because the word covers an extraordinarily wide range of financial contracts. Essentially, these instruments call for money to change hands at some future date, with the amount to be determined by one or more reference items, such as interest rates, stock prices or currency values. If, for example, you are either long or short an S&P 500 futures contract, you are a party to a very simple derivatives transaction – with your gain or loss derived from movements in the index. Derivatives contracts are of varying duration (running sometimes to 20 or more years) and their value is often tied to several variables. Unless derivatives contracts are collateralized or guaranteed, their ultimate value also depends on the creditworthiness of the counterparties to them. In the meantime, though, before a contract is settled, the counterparties record profits and losses – often huge in amount – in their current earnings statements without so much as a penny changing hands. The range of derivatives contracts is limited only by the imagination of man (or sometimes, so it seems, madmen). At Enron, for example, newsprint and broadband derivatives, due to be settled many years in the future, were put on the books. Or say you want to write a contract speculating on the number of twins to be born in Nebraska in 2020. No problem – at a price, you will easily find an obliging counterparty. When we purchased Gen Re, it came with General Re Securities, a derivatives dealer that Charlie and I didn’t want, judging it to be dangerous. We failed in our attempts to sell the operation, however, and are now terminating it. But closing down a derivatives business is easier said than done. It will be a great many years before we are totally out of this operation (though we reduce our exposure daily). In fact, the reinsurance and derivatives businesses are similar: Like Hell, both are easy to enter and almost impossible to exit. In either industry, once you write a contract – which may require a large payment decades later – you are usually stuck with it. True, there are methods by which the risk can be laid off with others. But most strategies of that kind leave you with residual liability. Another commonality of reinsurance and derivatives is that both generate reported earnings that are often wildly overstated. That’s true because today’s earnings are in a significant way based on estimates whose inaccuracy may not be exposed for many years. Errors will usually be honest, reflecting only the human tendency to take an optimistic view of one’s commitments. But the parties to derivatives also have enormous incentives to cheat in accounting for them. Those who trade derivatives are usually paid (in whole or part) on “earnings” calculated by mark-to-market accounting. But often there is no real market (think about our contract involving twins) and “mark-to-model” is utilized. This substitution can bring on large-scale mischief. As a general rule, contracts involving multiple reference items and distant settlement dates increase the opportunities for counterparties to use fanciful assumptions. In the twins scenario, for example, the two parties to the contract might well use differing models allowing both to show substantial profits for many years. In extreme cases, mark-to-model degenerates into what I would call mark-to-myth. Of course, both internal and outside auditors review the numbers, but that’s no easy job. For example, General Re Securities at yearend (after ten months of winding down its operation) had 14,384

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合约,涉及全球 672 个交易对手。每份合约都因一项或多项参考标的而或正或负地波动,其中有些标的复杂得令人瞠目。要给这样一个投资组合估值,就算是资深审计师,也完全可能出于诚实而给出大相径庭的判断。估值这道难题,绝非纸上谈兵:近年来,好几桩大规模的欺诈和近乎欺诈的勾当,都是借衍生品交易做成的。就说能源和电力公用事业领域,一些公司靠衍生品和交易活动报出漂亮的“利润”——直到它们真要把资产负债表上那些与衍生品相关的应收款换成现金时,整个屋顶才轰然塌下。到那时,“按市值计价”才现出真身,原来是“按神话计价”。我可以向你保证,衍生品业务里的估值错误从来都不对称。几乎无一例外,它们要么讨好那个盯着几百万美元奖金的交易员,要么讨好那个想报出漂亮“利润”的 CEO(或者两头都占)。奖金照发不误,CEO 也借手中的期权发了财。只有到很久以后,股东才恍然发现,那些报出来的利润不过是一场骗局。衍生品的另一个问题是,它们会把一家公司因完全不相干的原因惹上的麻烦火上浇油。这种叠加效应之所以发生,是因为许多衍生品合约都规定:一旦某公司信用评级被下调,就必须立即向交易对手追加抵押品。那么试想一下,某家公司因大环境不利而遭降级,它的衍生品合约随即启动条款,冷不丁向它索要一大笔现金抵押。为凑齐这笔钱,公司可能陷入流动性危机,而这在某些情形下又会触发更多次降级。整件事就此滚成一个漩涡,最终可能把公司拖垮。衍生品还会催生一种“雏菊链”式风险,这与保险公司或再保险公司把大量业务分保出去时所冒的风险如出一辙。两种情形下,来自众多交易对手的巨额应收款,都会随时间层层堆积。(在通用再保险证券,尽管我们进入清算模式已近一年,账上仍挂着 65 亿美元的应收款。)某个参与者或许自认谨慎,觉得自己那些庞大的信用敞口已经分散,因而不危险。可在某些情形下,一桩外部事件既会让 A 公司的应收款变成坏账,也会一并殃及 B 公司直至 Z 公司的应收款。历史反复告诉我们,危机常常让风险以太平时节做梦也想不到的方式彼此关联。在银行业,人们正是因为看清了这种“关联”问题,才有了创设美联储的诸多缘由之一。美联储成立之前,弱小银行的倒闭,有时会给原本稳健的银行骤然压上一笔意料之外的流动性重担,逼得它们也接连倒下。如今,美联储把强者与弱者的困境隔开了。可是,没有哪家中央银行被指派去阻止保险或衍生品行业的多米诺骨牌相继倾倒。在这些行当里,基本面稳健的公司,仅仅因为链条下游别家公司的困顿,就可能陷入险境。当一个行业存在“连锁反应”的隐患时,尽量少留任何形式的连接点,才是上策。这正是我们经营再保险的方式,也是我们退出衍生品的原因之一。许多人主张,衍生品能减少系统性问题,因为承受不了某些风险的参与者,可以把风险转给更强的一方。这些人相信,衍生品能稳定经济、便利交易,并为个别参与者熨平颠簸。就微观层面而言,他们说的往往没错。事实上,在伯克希尔,我有时也会做大规模的衍生品交易,为的是促成某些投资策略。然而查理和我认为,宏观图景是危险的,而且正变得越来越危险。大量风险,尤其是信用风险,已经集中到相对少数几家衍生品交易商手里,而这几家彼此之间又交易频繁、往来巨大。其中一家出事,就会迅速传染给其余各家。除此之外,这些交易商还被大量非交易商对手方欠着巨额款项。正如我前面所说,其中一些对手方以某种方式相互关联,可能因一个单一事件(比如电信业的内爆,或商业发电项目价值的骤跌)而同时陷入困境。这种关联一旦骤然浮现,就可能引爆严重的系统性问题。事实上,1998 年,仅仅一家对冲基金——长期资本管理公司——那高杠杆、重衍生品的交易活动,就让美联储焦虑到不得不匆忙牵头组织救援。事后在国会作证时,美联储官员承认,倘若他们当时不出手,长期资本管理公司——一家公众闻所未闻、只雇了几百名员工的公司——的未平仓交易

contracts outstanding, involving 672 counterparties around the world. Each contract had a plus or minus value derived from one or more reference items, including some of mind-boggling complexity. Valuing a portfolio like that, expert auditors could easily and honestly have widely varying opinions. The valuation problem is far from academic: In recent years, some huge-scale frauds and near-frauds have been facilitated by derivatives trades. In the energy and electric utility sectors, for example, companies used derivatives and trading activities to report great “earnings” – until the roof fell in when they actually tried to convert the derivatives-related receivables on their balance sheets into cash. “Mark-to-market” then turned out to be truly “mark-to-myth.” I can assure you that the marking errors in the derivatives business have not been symmetrical. Almost invariably, they have favored either the trader who was eyeing a multi-million dollar bonus or the CEO who wanted to report impressive “earnings” (or both). The bonuses were paid, and the CEO profited from his options. Only much later did shareholders learn that the reported earnings were a sham. Another problem about derivatives is that they can exacerbate trouble that a corporation has run into for completely unrelated reasons. This pile-on effect occurs because many derivatives contracts require that a company suffering a credit downgrade immediately supply collateral to counterparties. Imagine, then, that a company is downgraded because of general adversity and that its derivatives instantly kick in with their requirement, imposing an unexpected and enormous demand for cash collateral on the company. The need to meet this demand can then throw the company into a liquidity crisis that may, in some cases, trigger still more downgrades. It all becomes a spiral that can lead to a corporate meltdown. Derivatives also create a daisy-chain risk that is akin to the risk run by insurers or reinsurers that lay off much of their business with others. In both cases, huge receivables from many counterparties tend to build up over time. (At Gen Re Securities, we still have $6.5 billion of receivables, though we’ve been in a liquidation mode for nearly a year.) A participant may see himself as prudent, believing his large credit exposures to be diversified and therefore not dangerous. Under certain circumstances, though, an exogenous event that causes the receivable from Company A to go bad will also affect those from Companies B through Z. History teaches us that a crisis often causes problems to correlate in a manner undreamed of in more tranquil times. In banking, the recognition of a “linkage” problem was one of the reasons for the formation of the Federal Reserve System. Before the Fed was established, the failure of weak banks would sometimes put sudden and unanticipated liquidity demands on previously-strong banks, causing them to fail in turn. The Fed now insulates the strong from the troubles of the weak. But there is no central bank assigned to the job of preventing the dominoes toppling in insurance or derivatives. In these industries, firms that are fundamentally solid can become troubled simply because of the travails of other firms further down the chain. When a “chain reaction” threat exists within an industry, it pays to minimize links of any kind. That’s how we conduct our reinsurance business, and it’s one reason we are exiting derivatives. Many people argue that derivatives reduce systemic problems, in that participants who can’t bear certain risks are able to transfer them to stronger hands. These people believe that derivatives act to stabilize the economy, facilitate trade, and eliminate bumps for individual participants. And, on a micro level, what they say is often true. Indeed, at Berkshire, I sometimes engage in large-scale derivatives transactions in order to facilitate certain investment strategies. Charlie and I believe, however, that the macro picture is dangerous and getting more so. Large amounts of risk, particularly credit risk, have become concentrated in the hands of relatively few derivatives dealers, who in addition trade extensively with one other. The troubles of one could quickly infect the others. On top of that, these dealers are owed huge amounts by non-dealer counterparties. Some of these counterparties, as I’ve mentioned, are linked in ways that could cause them to contemporaneously run into a problem because of a single event (such as the implosion of the telecom industry or the precipitous decline in the value of merchant power projects). Linkage, when it suddenly surfaces, can trigger serious systemic problems. Indeed, in 1998, the leveraged and derivatives-heavy activities of a single hedge fund, Long-Term Capital Management, caused the Federal Reserve anxieties so severe that it hastily orchestrated a rescue effort. In later Congressional testimony, Fed officials acknowledged that, had they not intervened, the outstanding trades of LTCM – a firm unknown to the general public and employing only a few hundred

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很可能已对美国市场的稳定构成严重威胁。换句话说,美联储之所以出手,是因为其领导层担忧:一旦 LTCM 这块多米诺骨牌倒下,其他金融机构会遭遇什么后果。而这起事件,虽然让固定收益市场的多个领域瘫痪数周,却远非最坏的情景。LTCM 使用的衍生工具之一,是总收益互换——这类合约借助各种市场(包括股票市场)实现 100% 杠杆。例如,合约甲方(通常是一家银行)为买入某只股票提供全部资金,而乙方无需投入任何本金,只需约定在未来某一天,向银行收取该股票的全部收益,或承担全部亏损。这类总收益互换,把保证金要求变成了一个笑话。除此之外,其他类型的衍生品严重削弱了监管机构遏制杠杆的能力,也让他们难以从总体上摸清银行、保险公司和其他金融机构的风险状况。同样,即便是经验丰富的投资者和分析师,在分析深度涉足衍生品合约的公司的财务状况时,也会遇到重大难题。查理和我每次读完那些巨细靡遗地披露大型银行衍生品活动的冗长脚注,唯一弄明白的事就是:我们不知道这家机构到底承担了多大风险。衍生品这个妖怪早已从瓶子里跑了出来,这些工具几乎必然会在种类和数量上继续繁殖,直到某起事件让它们的毒性显露无遗。在电力和天然气行业,人们已经充分认识到衍生品有多危险——该行业爆发重大危机之后,衍生品的使用量已急剧萎缩。然而在其他领域,衍生品业务仍在毫无节制地扩张。各国央行和政府至今尚未找到有效的方法来管控,甚至仅仅是监测这些合约所带来的风险。查理和我认为,伯克希尔应当是一座财务上的堡垒——为了我们的股东、债权人、保单持有人和员工。我们力图对任何类型的特大灾难风险保持警惕,这种姿态或许会让我们对那些急剧膨胀的长期衍生品合约,以及随之同步增长的海量无抵押应收款,产生过度的忧虑。但在我们看来,衍生品是金融领域的大规模杀伤性武器,它们携带的危险虽然眼下尚处潜伏状态,却具有潜在的致命性。

people – could well have posed a serious threat to the stability of American markets. In other words, the Fed acted because its leaders were fearful of what might have happened to other financial institutions had the LTCM domino toppled. And this affair, though it paralyzed many parts of the fixed-income market for weeks, was far from a worst-case scenario. One of the derivatives instruments that LTCM used was total-return swaps, contracts that facilitate 100% leverage in various markets, including stocks. For example, Party A to a contract, usually a bank, puts up all of the money for the purchase of a stock while Party B, without putting up any capital, agrees that at a future date it will receive any gain or pay any loss that the bank realizes. Total-return swaps of this type make a joke of margin requirements. Beyond that, other types of derivatives severely curtail the ability of regulators to curb leverage and generally get their arms around the risk profiles of banks, insurers and other financial institutions. Similarly, even experienced investors and analysts encounter major problems in analyzing the financial condition of firms that are heavily involved with derivatives contracts. When Charlie and I finish reading the long footnotes detailing the derivatives activities of major banks, the only thing we understand is that we don’t understand how much risk the institution is running. The derivatives genie is now well out of the bottle, and these instruments will almost certainly multiply in variety and number until some event makes their toxicity clear. Knowledge of how dangerous they are has already permeated the electricity and gas businesses, in which the eruption of major troubles caused the use of derivatives to diminish dramatically. Elsewhere, however, the derivatives business continues to expand unchecked. Central banks and governments have so far found no effective way to control, or even monitor, the risks posed by these contracts. Charlie and I believe Berkshire should be a fortress of financial strength – for the sake of our owners, creditors, policyholders and employees. We try to be alert to any sort of megacatastrophe risk, and that posture may make us unduly apprehensive about the burgeoning quantities of long-term derivatives contracts and the massive amount of uncollateralized receivables that are growing alongside. In our view, however, derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal.

投资

Investments

下面列出我们的普通股投资。截至 2002 年底,市值超过 5 亿美元的持股逐项列示。

Below we show our common stock investments. Those that had a market value of more than $500 million at the end of 2002 are itemized.

持股数量(股) 151,610,700 200,000,000 96,000,000 15,999,200 6,708,760 24,000,000 1,727,765 53,265,080

Shares 151,610,700 200,000,000 96,000,000 15,999,200 6,708,760 24,000,000 1,727,765 53,265,080

公司
美国运通公司
可口可乐公司
吉列公司
H&R Block 公司
M&T 银行
穆迪公司
《华盛顿邮报》公司
富国银行
其他公司
普通股合计
Company
American Express Company .....................................................................
The Coca-Cola Company ..........................................................................
The Gillette Company................................................................................
H&R Block, Inc.........................................................................................
M&T Bank.................................................................................................
Moody’s Corporation.................................................................................
The Washington Post Company ................................................................
Wells Fargo & Company ...........................................................................
Others ........................................................................................................
Total Common Stocks ...............................................................................
股份公司12/31/02 成本市场(单位:百万美元)
151,610,700美国运通公司$ 1,470$ 5,359
200,000,000可口可乐公司1,2998,768
96,000,000吉列公司6002,915
15,999,200H&R Block公司255643
6,708,760M&T银行103532
24,000,000穆迪公司499991
1,727,765《华盛顿邮报》公司111,275
53,265,080富国银行公司3062,497
其他4,6215,383
普通股总计$9,164$28,363
SharesCompany12/31/02 CostMarket (dollars in millions)
151,610,700American Express Company$ 1,470$ 5,359
200,000,000The Coca-Cola Company1,2998,768
96,000,000The Gillette Company6002,915
15,999,200H&R Block, Inc255643
6,708,760M&T Bank103532
24,000,000Moody’s Corporation499991
1,727,765The Washington Post Company111,275
53,265,080Wells Fargo & Company3062,497
Others4,6215,383
Total Common Stocks$9,164$28,363

在股票方面,我们依然鲜有操作。查理和我对自己在伯克希尔主要被投资公司中的持股越来越放心,因为这些公司大多利润增长而估值下降。但我们并不打算增持。尽管这些企业前景良好,我们仍不认为它们的股价遭到了低估。在我们看来,这一判断也适用于整体股市。尽管股价连跌三年,已显著提升了普通股的吸引力,我们仍然几乎找不到哪怕让我们稍感兴趣

We continue to do little in equities. Charlie and I are increasingly comfortable with our holdings in Berkshire’s major investees because most of them have increased their earnings while their valuations have decreased. But we are not inclined to add to them. Though these enterprises have good prospects, we don’t yet believe their shares are undervalued. In our view, the same conclusion fits stocks generally. Despite three years of falling prices, which have significantly improved the attractiveness of common stocks, we still find very few that even mildly

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的股票。这一惨淡的事实,恰是“大泡沫”时期估值疯狂到何等程度的明证。遗憾的是,宿醉的严重程度,恐怕与狂欢的规模成正比。查理和我如今对股票所表现出的回避,绝非出自天性。我们热爱持有普通股——只要能够以有吸引力的价格买到。在我 61 年的投资生涯中,大约有 50 年都曾出现过这样的机会。那样的年份还会再来的。然而,除非我们看到税前年回报率达到至少 10%(折合企业所得税后约为 6.5% 至 7%)的概率极高,否则我们就会按兵不动。短期资金税后回报率不到 1%,干坐着不动确实无趣。但成功的投资,偶尔就是需要无所作为。不过,去年我们得以在一些“垃圾”债券和贷款上做了几笔明智的投资。总体而言,我们在这个领域的投入翻了六倍,年末达到 83 亿美元。投资垃圾债券与投资股票,在某些方面颇为相似:两种活动都要求我们进行价格与价值的衡量,并遍览数百只证券,以找出寥寥几只回报/风险比具有吸引力的标的。但这两个门类之间也存在重要区别。在股票上,我们期望每一笔投资都能取得良好成果,因为我们专注于那些财务风格保守、具有强大竞争优势、由能人且诚实之士经营的企业。如果我们以合理价格买入这些公司,亏损理应很少发生。事实上,在我们执掌公司事务的 38 年间,伯克希尔自营股票(即不含通用再保险和 GEICO 管理的股票)的投资收益与亏损之比约为 100 比 1。而买入垃圾债券时,我们面对的是远为勉强的企业。这些公司通常负债累累,且往往身处资本回报率低下的行业。此外,管理层的品质有时也成问题,甚至可能存在与债券持有人利益直接相悖的情况。因此,我们预料在垃圾债券上偶尔会遭受重大亏损。不过到目前为止,我们在这个领域做得还算不错。

interest us. That dismal fact is testimony to the insanity of valuations reached during The Great Bubble. Unfortunately, the hangover may prove to be proportional to the binge. The aversion to equities that Charlie and I exhibit today is far from congenital. We love owning common stocks – if they can be purchased at attractive prices. In my 61 years of investing, 50 or so years have offered that kind of opportunity. There will be years like that again. Unless, however, we see a very high probability of at least 10% pre-tax returns (which translate to 6½-7% after corporate tax), we will sit on the sidelines. With short-term money returning less than 1% after-tax, sitting it out is no fun. But occasionally successful investing requires inactivity. Last year we were, however, able to make sensible investments in a few “junk” bonds and loans. Overall, our commitments in this sector sextupled, reaching $8.3 billion by yearend. Investing in junk bonds and investing in stocks are alike in certain ways: Both activities require us to make a price-value calculation and also to scan hundreds of securities to find the very few that have attractive reward/risk ratios. But there are important differences between the two disciplines as well. In stocks, we expect every commitment to work out well because we concentrate on conservatively financed businesses with strong competitive strengths, run by able and honest people. If we buy into these companies at sensible prices, losses should be rare. Indeed, during the 38 years we have run the company’s affairs, gains from the equities we manage at Berkshire (that is, excluding those managed at General Re and GEICO) have exceeded losses by a ratio of about 100 to one. Purchasing junk bonds, we are dealing with enterprises that are far more marginal. These businesses are usually overloaded with debt and often operate in industries characterized by low returns on capital. Additionally, the quality of management is sometimes questionable. Management may even have interests that are directly counter to those of debtholders. Therefore, we expect that we will have occasional large losses in junk issues. So far, however, we have done reasonably well in this field.

公司治理

Corporate Governance

经理人的能力与忠诚,历来都需要监督。事实上,将近两千年以前,耶稣基督就论及过这个话题,他在《路加福音》16 章 2 节中赞许地提到“有一个财主”对他的管家说:“把你所经管的交代明白,因为你不能再作我的管家了。”问责精神与受托责任在过去十年日渐式微,竟成了深陷“大泡沫”的人眼中无足轻重的品质。股价节节攀升,经理人的行为准则却步步退堕。结果,到 90 年代末,走正道的 CEO 发现路上并不拥挤。需要指出的是,大多数 CEO 都是你乐意托付子女资产、或愿与之比邻而居的男女人士。然而,这些人中有太多人近年来在职场中行为失当:粉饰数字,为平庸的经营业绩攫取惊人薪酬。这些本性质朴正派的人,只不过效仿了梅·韦斯特的职业生涯轨迹:“我本是白雪公主,但我随波逐流了。”理论上,公司董事会本应阻止这种行径的堕落。我上一次论及董事的职责是在 1993 年年报中。(如需这段讨论,我们将应索呈寄,你也可以在互联网上查阅 1993 年致股东信的公司治理部分。)在那封信中,我写道,董事“行事时,应当假设存在着唯一一位不在场的股东,他们应以一切恰当的方式,努力增进这位股东的长期利益”。这意味着,董事必须辞退平庸乃至更差的经理人,无论这人有多么讨人喜欢。董事必须做出如同那位嫁给 85 岁千万富翁的歌舞团新娘般的反应——当年迈的新郎问她,假如他失去所有钱财,她是否还会爱他时,这位年轻的美人答道:“当然,我会想念你,但我照样爱你。”在 1993 年年报中,我还写道,董事还有另一项工作:“若能干却贪婪的经理人逾规越矩,企图把手伸进股东口袋挖得太深,董事必须敲打他们的手。”自我写下这句话以来,逾矩已成常见之事,被敲打的却寥寥无几。为什么聪明且正派的董事,会败得如此之惨?答案不在于法律不完善——董事有义务代表股东利益,这一点历来都是清楚的——而在于我所说的“董事会氛围”之中。

Both the ability and fidelity of managers have long needed monitoring. Indeed, nearly 2,000 years ago, Jesus Christ addressed this subject, speaking (Luke 16:2) approvingly of “a certain rich man” who told his manager, “Give an account of thy stewardship; for thou mayest no longer be steward.” Accountability and stewardship withered in the last decade, becoming qualities deemed of little importance by those caught up in the Great Bubble. As stock prices went up, the behavioral norms of managers went down. By the late ’90s, as a result, CEOs who traveled the high road did not encounter heavy traffic. Most CEOs, it should be noted, are men and women you would be happy to have as trustees for your children’s assets or as next-door neighbors. Too many of these people, however, have in recent years behaved badly at the office, fudging numbers and drawing obscene pay for mediocre business achievements. These otherwise decent people simply followed the career path of Mae West: “I was Snow White but I drifted.” In theory, corporate boards should have prevented this deterioration of conduct. I last wrote about the responsibilities of directors in the 1993 annual report. (We will send you a copy of this discussion on request, or you may read it on the Internet in the Corporate Governance section of the 1993 letter.) There, I said that directors “should behave as if there was a single absentee owner, whose long-term interest they should try to further in all proper ways.” This means that directors must get rid of a manager who is mediocre or worse, no matter how likable he may be. Directors must react as did the chorus-girl bride of an 85-yearold multimillionaire when he asked whether she would love him if he lost his money. “Of course,” the young beauty replied, “I would miss you, but I would still love you.” In the 1993 annual report, I also said directors had another job: “If able but greedy managers overreach and try to dip too deeply into the shareholders’ pockets, directors must slap their hands.” Since I wrote that, over-reaching has become common but few hands have been slapped. Why have intelligent and decent directors failed so miserably? The answer lies not in inadequate laws – it’s always been clear that directors are obligated to represent the interests of shareholders – but rather in what I’d call “boardroom atmosphere.”

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举个简单的例子:在一间坐满彬彬有礼之人的会议室里,几乎没人能开口去问“是不是该换掉 CEO”。同样叫人尴尬的,是去质疑一桩经 CEO 背书的收购提案——尤其当他的内部下属和外部顾问都在座、并一致力挺他的决定时(不然他们也不会坐进这间屋子)。最后,当薪酬委员会——照例揣着高薪顾问出具的意见——汇报一笔发给 CEO 的巨额期权时,哪位董事若提议委员会再斟酌斟酌,那简直就像在饭桌上打了个饱嗝一样失礼。这些“社交”上的难处,正说明外部董事应当定期在 CEO 不在场的情况下开会——这项改革如今正在推行,我也由衷赞成。不过我怀疑,其余那些新的治理规则和建议,能否带来与其所耗金钱和其他成本相称的益处。眼下人人都在喊要“独立”董事。诚然,让董事能独立地思考、独立地发声,这当然是好事——可他们还得懂生意、有兴趣,并以股东为念。在我 1993 年的评述里,这三条正是我列为必备的品质。40 年间,我先后在 19 家上市公司(不含伯克希尔)的董事会任过职,打过交道的董事大概有 250 位。照今天的规则,他们中的大多数都算“独立”。但绝大多数董事,都至少缺了我看重的这三条品质中的一条。结果,他们对股东福祉的贡献顶多微乎其微,还常常是负数。这些人虽说人品端正、头脑聪明,却要么对生意懂得不够,要么对股东不够上心,以至于没法去质疑愚蠢的收购或离谱的薪酬。我还得懊悔地补一句:我自己也常常做得不够——很多时候,管理层提出我认定有损股东利益的提案,我却选择了沉默。在那些场合,同僚的情面压过了独立。为了把“独立”的缺陷看得更透,让我们来看一个横跨 62 年、覆盖数千家公司的案例。自 1940 年起,联邦法律就要求投资公司(其中大多是共同基金)董事会中的独立董事须占相当比例。这一比例最初是 40%,如今已是 50%。总之,长期以来,典型基金的董事会都是独立董事占多数。这些董事连同整个董事会,肩负着许多例行公事,但实打实的重要责任只有两桩:物色最好的投资经理,并与这位经理谈下尽可能低的费率。你自己找人帮忙打理投资时,这两个目标就是唯一要紧的;替别人做主的董事,理应把优先次序摆得一模一样。然而,一旦轮到独立董事去追求这两个目标,他们的记录简直惨不忍睹。成千上万个投资公司董事会年年开会,履行挑选管理人这桩要命的差事——由这些管理人去打理他们所代表的数百万投资者的积蓄。年复一年,基金 A 的董事选出经理 A,基金 B 的董事选出经理 B……整个过程活像一群僵尸,把受托之责变成了笑柄。极偶尔地,会有某个董事会揭竿而起。但绝大多数时候,让一位“独立”的共同基金董事去建议本基金另觅经理,比让一只猴子敲出一部莎士比亚剧本还难——哪怕现任经理长期业绩不堪。当然,打理自己的钱时,董事们会去另寻高明;可一旦他们是替别人当受托人,这念头就压根不会冒出来。当一家基金管理公司——就叫它“A”——被高价卖给经理“B”时,这套体系里弥漫的伪善便暴露无遗。这下,“独立”董事们经历了一场“顿悟”,认定经理 B 是能找到的最佳人选——尽管前些年 B 明明就在那儿(却一直被无视)。顺带说一句,B 当年本可以用远低于如今的费率被聘来;可现在它买下了经理 A,这就不可能了。因为 B 为收购 A 砸下了一笔巨款,如今非得靠向那些作为交易一部分被“打包移交”的 A 股东收取费用,才能把这笔成本捞回来。(想读一篇关于共同基金业的精彩论述,就翻翻约翰·博格的《共同基金常识》。)几年前,有人邀我女儿去一家由某大型机构管理的基金家族当董事。这个董事职位的报酬相当可观,足以让她的年收入增加约 50%(她会告诉你,这笔钱她正好用得上!)。从法律上讲,她本会是一位独立董事。可上门相邀的那位基金经理,真会觉得她有半点可能,在“基金该聘哪家顾问”这件事上独立思考吗?当然不会。我

It’s almost impossible, for example, in a boardroom populated by well-mannered people, to raise the question of whether the CEO should be replaced. It’s equally awkward to question a proposed acquisition that has been endorsed by the CEO, particularly when his inside staff and outside advisors are present and unanimously support his decision. (They wouldn’t be in the room if they didn’t.) Finally, when the compensation committee – armed, as always, with support from a high-paid consultant – reports on a megagrant of options to the CEO, it would be like belching at the dinner table for a director to suggest that the committee reconsider. These “social” difficulties argue for outside directors regularly meeting without the CEO – a reform that is being instituted and that I enthusiastically endorse. I doubt, however, that most of the other new governance rules and recommendations will provide benefits commensurate with the monetary and other costs they impose. The current cry is for “independent” directors. It is certainly true that it is desirable to have directors who think and speak independently – but they must also be business-savvy, interested and shareholderoriented. In my 1993 commentary, those are the three qualities I described as essential. Over a span of 40 years, I have been on 19 public-company boards (excluding Berkshire’s) and have interacted with perhaps 250 directors. Most of them were “independent” as defined by today’s rules. But the great majority of these directors lacked at least one of the three qualities I value. As a result, their contribution to shareholder well-being was minimal at best and, too often, negative. These people, decent and intelligent though they were, simply did not know enough about business and/or care enough about shareholders to question foolish acquisitions or egregious compensation. My own behavior, I must ruefully add, frequently fell short as well: Too often I was silent when management made proposals that I judged to be counter to the interests of shareholders. In those cases, collegiality trumped independence. So that we may further see the failings of “independence,” let’s look at a 62-year case study covering thousands of companies. Since 1940, federal law has mandated that a large proportion of the directors of investment companies (most of these mutual funds) be independent. The requirement was originally 40% and now it is 50%. In any case, the typical fund has long operated with a majority of directors who qualify as independent. These directors and the entire board have many perfunctory duties, but in actuality have only two important responsibilities: obtaining the best possible investment manager and negotiating with that manager for the lowest possible fee. When you are seeking investment help yourself, those two goals are the only ones that count, and directors acting for other investors should have exactly the same priorities. Yet when it comes to independent directors pursuing either goal, their record has been absolutely pathetic. Many thousands of investment-company boards meet annually to carry out the vital job of selecting who will manage the savings of the millions of owners they represent. Year after year the directors of Fund A select manager A, Fund B directors select manager B, etc. … in a zombie-like process that makes a mockery of stewardship. Very occasionally, a board will revolt. But for the most part, a monkey will type out a Shakespeare play before an “independent” mutual-fund director will suggest that his fund look at other managers, even if the incumbent manager has persistently delivered substandard performance. When they are handling their own money, of course, directors will look to alternative advisors – but it never enters their minds to do so when they are acting as fiduciaries for others. The hypocrisy permeating the system is vividly exposed when a fund management company – call it “A” – is sold for a huge sum to Manager “B”. Now the “independent” directors experience a “counterrevelation” and decide that Manager B is the best that can be found – even though B was available (and ignored) in previous years. Not so incidentally, B also could formerly have been hired at a far lower rate than is possible now that it has bought Manager A. That’s because B has laid out a fortune to acquire A, and B must now recoup that cost through fees paid by the A shareholders who were “delivered” as part of the deal. (For a terrific discussion of the mutual fund business, read John Bogle’s Common Sense on Mutual Funds.) A few years ago, my daughter was asked to become a director of a family of funds managed by a major institution. The fees she would have received as a director were very substantial, enough to have increased her annual income by about 50% (a boost, she will tell you, she could use!). Legally, she would have been an independent director. But did the fund manager who approached her think there was any chance that she would think independently as to what advisor the fund should employ? Of course not. I am

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很自豪地说,她拒绝了这份邀约,展现出名副其实的独立。而那家基金毫不费力就把空缺补上了(而且——你猜怎么着——它至今没换过经理)。在管理费的谈判上,投资公司的董事同样一败涂地(正如许多美国公司的薪酬委员会,未能把 CEO 的薪酬压在合理水平一样)。如果你我手握权柄,我敢向你保证,对绝大多数共同基金的现任经理,我们都能轻轻松松谈下实打实的降费。而且请相信我,只要许诺董事们能从谈下来的费用节省里分一杯羹,天上准会下起降费的雨。可在现行体制下,降费对“独立”董事一钱不值,对经理人却事关身家。那么,你猜谁会赢?当然,对一只基金来说,选对资金管理人,远比压低经理费更要紧。可这两桩事,都是董事的分内之责。而在担起这些至关重要的责任时,六十多年来,成千上万的“独立”董事都败得一塌糊涂。(不过在照顾自己这件事上,他们倒是成功的:在同一个“家族”旗下多只基金的董事会兼职,攒下的报酬常常高达六位数。)当经理人在乎得要命、董事却漠不关心时,就需要一股强有力的制衡力量——而这,正是今日公司治理中缺失的一环。要撵走平庸的 CEO、勒住能干者的贪手,非得靠所有者出手不可——大所有者。操作起来并不难:近几十年来,股权日益集中,如今机构管理人要在问题公司里贯彻自己的意志,易如反掌。二十家、甚至更少的最大机构联手,只需对那些纵容恶行的董事投下反对票,就能在某家公司实实在在地推动治理改革。在我看来,唯有这种协同行动,才能让公司的受托治理得到切实的改善。遗憾的是,某些大型投资机构在呼吁别处改善治理时,自己却住在“玻璃房”里:譬如,一想到自家的业绩与费用会被自家董事会仔细审视,它们就浑身发抖。不过,声名远播的先锋集团的杰克·博格、戴维斯顾问公司的克里斯·戴维斯,以及美盛的比尔·米勒,如今正带头督促 CEO 们善待自己的所有者。养老基金以及其他受托人若肯支持这些人,未来将收获更好的投资回报。改革的试金石,将是 CEO 的薪酬。经理人会爽快地答应董事会的“多元化”,会为提交给 SEC 的文件背书,也会通过一堆关于流程、却毫无实质的提案。可许多人会拼死抵抗的,是有人认真审视他们自己的薪水和额外待遇。近年来,薪酬委员会太常沦为摇尾乞怜的哈巴狗,温顺地照搬顾问的建议——而顾问这个群体,向来不以忠于那些出钱雇他们、却面目模糊的股东著称。(若你分不清某人站在哪一边,那他准不站在你这边。)诚然,SEC 要求每个委员会在委托书里陈述其薪酬的理据。可那些说辞,通常是公司律师或人力资源部门套写的官样文章。这出费钱的假戏,该收场了。董事若没有能力代表所有者去谈判,就不该进薪酬委员会。他们应当讲清楚:自己如何看待薪酬,又如何衡量业绩。何况经手的是股东的钱,他们理应像花自己的钱一样行事。19 世纪 90 年代,塞缪尔·冈珀斯把有组织劳工的目标概括为:“更多!”20 世纪 90 年代,美国的 CEO 们捡起了他的战斗口号。结果便是,CEO 们往往聚敛起万贯家财,他们的股东却坠入财务的灾难。董事们该制止这样的劫掠。为极为卓越的经营业绩付高薪,本无可厚非;可对于任何达不到这一标准的情形,董事们是时候喊出“更少!”了。倘若近些年膨胀的薪酬成了未来薪酬的起跳线,那才是天大的荒唐。薪酬委员会,该回到绘图板前从头来过了。

proud to say that she showed real independence by turning down the offer. The fund, however, had no trouble filling the slot (and – surprise – the fund has not changed managers). Investment company directors have failed as well in negotiating management fees (just as compensation committees of many American companies have failed to hold the compensation of their CEOs to sensible levels). If you or I were empowered, I can assure you that we could easily negotiate materially lower management fees with the incumbent managers of most mutual funds. And, believe me, if directors were promised a portion of any fee savings they realized, the skies would be filled with falling fees. Under the current system, though, reductions mean nothing to “independent” directors while meaning everything to managers. So guess who wins? Having the right money manager, of course, is far more important to a fund than reducing the manager’s fee. Both tasks are nonetheless the job of directors. And in stepping up to these all-important responsibilities, tens of thousands of “independent” directors, over more than six decades, have failed miserably. (They’ve succeeded, however, in taking care of themselves; their fees from serving on multiple boards of a single “family” of funds often run well into six figures.) When the manager cares deeply and the directors don’t, what’s needed is a powerful countervailing force – and that’s the missing element in today’s corporate governance. Getting rid of mediocre CEOs and eliminating overreaching by the able ones requires action by owners – big owners. The logistics aren’t that tough: The ownership of stock has grown increasingly concentrated in recent decades, and today it would be easy for institutional managers to exert their will on problem situations. Twenty, or even fewer, of the largest institutions, acting together, could effectively reform corporate governance at a given company, simply by withholding their votes for directors who were tolerating odious behavior. In my view, this kind of concerted action is the only way that corporate stewardship can be meaningfully improved. Unfortunately, certain major investing institutions have “glass house” problems in arguing for better governance elsewhere; they would shudder, for example, at the thought of their own performance and fees being closely inspected by their own boards. But Jack Bogle of Vanguard fame, Chris Davis of Davis Advisors, and Bill Miller of Legg Mason are now offering leadership in getting CEOs to treat their owners properly. Pension funds, as well as other fiduciaries, will reap better investment returns in the future if they support these men. The acid test for reform will be CEO compensation. Managers will cheerfully agree to board “diversity,” attest to SEC filings and adopt meaningless proposals relating to process. What many will fight, however, is a hard look at their own pay and perks. In recent years compensation committees too often have been tail-wagging puppy dogs meekly following recommendations by consultants, a breed not known for allegiance to the faceless shareholders who pay their fees. (If you can’t tell whose side someone is on, they are not on yours.) True, each committee is required by the SEC to state its reasoning about pay in the proxy. But the words are usually boilerplate written by the company’s lawyers or its human-relations department. This costly charade should cease. Directors should not serve on compensation committees unless they are themselves capable of negotiating on behalf of owners. They should explain both how they think about pay and how they measure performance. Dealing with shareholders’ money, moreover, they should behave as they would were it their own. In the 1890s, Samuel Gompers described the goal of organized labor as “More!” In the 1990s, America’s CEOs adopted his battle cry. The upshot is that CEOs have often amassed riches while their shareholders have experienced financial disasters. Directors should stop such piracy. There’s nothing wrong with paying well for truly exceptional business performance. But, for anything short of that, it’s time for directors to shout “Less!” It would be a travesty if the bloated pay of recent years became a baseline for future compensation. Compensation committees should go back to the drawing boards.

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已经提出、且几乎肯定会付诸实施的规则,将要求伯克希尔改组董事会,迫使我们增补符合法定“独立性”标准的董事。

Rules that have been proposed and that are almost certain to go into effect will require changes in Berkshire’s board, obliging us to add directors who meet the codified requirements for “independence.”

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在这么做的同时,我们还会加上一条我们认为对培育独立性很重要、却远非决定性的检验:我们会挑选那些持股既巨且真的董事(也就是说,是他们本人或家族自掏腰包买来的股票,而非伯克希尔白送、或经期权授予的)——我们指望这份持股对他们行为的影响,会盖过声望、董事费之类的其他考量。这就引出了董事薪酬中一个常被忽视的问题。在上市公司,董事的年薪平均约莫 5 万美元。让我百思不解的是:许多董事指望这笔钱撑起自己年收入的 20% 甚至更多,却仍被视作独立;而像我们董事会里的罗恩·奥尔森,只因从伯克希尔那点法律服务费中,取得了占他庞大总收入极小一块的进项,就可能被判定为不独立。正如投资公司那段公案所示,一个收入不高、严重仰仗董事费、又一心盼着被别的董事会相中以多挣几份董事费的人,是极不可能去开罪 CEO 或同僚董事的——因为正是这些人,在很大程度上左右着他在企业圈里的名声。若监管者认定“大额”金钱会玷污独立性(它确实可能),那他们就漏掉了一大批潜在的越轨者。在伯克希尔,我们希望董事费对董事无足轻重,所以只付给他们区区一点。此外,我们不愿让董事在公司可能遭遇的任何灾难中置身事外,因此不为他们购买高管及董事责任险(顺带一提,这个不合常规的做法,多年来为股东省下了数百万美元)。说到底,我们希望董事的行为,是被自家决策对家族净资产的影响所驱动,而不是被他们的薪酬所驱动。这正是查理和我作为管理者所遵循的算式,我们认为,它对伯克希尔的董事也同样适用。为物色新董事,我们会从股东名册里,寻找那些本人或家族长期持有大量伯克希尔股票(价值数百万美元)的人。凡够得上这条线的,自然满足我们的头两项检验:对伯克希尔上心,且以股东为念。第三项检验,我们要看的是商业头脑——一种远非人人都有的本事。最后,我们会继续让巴菲特家族的成员留在董事会。他们坐在那里,不是为了在我身后经营公司,也不会因此领取任何形式的报酬。他们的使命,是替我们的股东和经理人守住一件事:当我之后由别的 CEO 接棒时,伯克希尔那份独特的文化仍能得到滋养。我们对董事会构成所做的任何调整,都不会改变查理和我经营伯克希尔的方式。工作中,我们会一如既往地重实质而轻形式,尽量不在董事会上把时间浪费在展示汇报和例行走场上。我们董事会最重要的差事,很可能就是替查理和我物色继任者,这也是他们将要着力的方向。迄今为止,我们这届董事会所监督的,是一家以股东为念的企业,它始终按第 68 至 74 页所列的经济原则运营(这些原则,我恳请每位新股东都读一读)。我们的目标,是招进一批同样恪守这些原则的新董事。

Doing so, we will add a test that we believe is important, but far from determinative, in fostering independence: We will select directors who have huge and true ownership interests (that is, stock that they or their family have purchased, not been given by Berkshire or received via options), expecting those interests to influence their actions to a degree that dwarfs other considerations such as prestige and board fees. That gets to an often-overlooked point about directors’ compensation, which at public companies averages perhaps $50,000 annually. It baffles me how the many directors who look to these dollars for perhaps 20% or more of their annual income can be considered independent when Ron Olson, for example, who is on our board, may be deemed not independent because he receives a tiny percentage of his very large income from Berkshire legal fees. As the investment company saga suggests, a director whose moderate income is heavily dependent on directors’ fees – and who hopes mightily to be invited to join other boards in order to earn more fees – is highly unlikely to offend a CEO or fellow directors, who in a major way will determine his reputation in corporate circles. If regulators believe that “significant” money taints independence (and it certainly can), they have overlooked a massive class of possible offenders. At Berkshire, wanting our fees to be meaningless to our directors, we pay them only a pittance. Additionally, not wanting to insulate our directors from any corporate disaster we might have, we don’t provide them with officers’ and directors’ liability insurance (an unorthodoxy that, not so incidentally, has saved our shareholders many millions of dollars over the years). Basically, we want the behavior of our directors to be driven by the effect their decisions will have on their family’s net worth, not by their compensation. That’s the equation for Charlie and me as managers, and we think it’s the right one for Berkshire directors as well. To find new directors, we will look through our shareholders list for people who directly, or in their family, have had large Berkshire holdings – in the millions of dollars – for a long time. Individuals making that cut should automatically meet two of our tests, namely that they be interested in Berkshire and shareholder-oriented. In our third test, we will look for business savvy, a competence that is far from commonplace. Finally, we will continue to have members of the Buffett family on the board. They are not there to run the business after I die, nor will they then receive compensation of any kind. Their purpose is to ensure, for both our shareholders and managers, that Berkshire’s special culture will be nurtured when I’m succeeded by other CEOs. Any change we make in the composition of our board will not alter the way Charlie and I run Berkshire. We will continue to emphasize substance over form in our work and waste as little time as possible during board meetings in show-and-tell and perfunctory activities. The most important job of our board is likely to be the selection of successors to Charlie and me, and that is a matter upon which it will focus. The board we have had up to now has overseen a shareholder-oriented business, consistently run in accord with the economic principles set forth on pages 68-74 (which I urge all new shareholders to read). Our goal is to obtain new directors who are equally devoted to those principles.

审计委员会

The Audit Committee

审计委员会审不了计。管理层声称赚到的利润究竟靠不靠得住,只有公司的外部审计师才判断得了。任何改革,若无视这一现实,转而在审计委员会的架构和章程上做文章,都成不了什么事。正如我们讨论过的,近年来太多管理者动手脚粉饰公司数字,用的会计和运营手法通常合法,却实实在在地误导了投资者。审计师往往知情,却常常选择闭口不言。审计委员会的头等要务,说白了,就是让审计师把他们知道的抖出来。要办成这件事,委员会必须让审计师明白:得罪管理层事小,误导委员会才是大事。可近些年,审计师并不这么想。他们普遍把 CEO——而非股东或董事——当成了自己的主顾。这既是日常协作关系自然滋生的结果,也因为审计师心里清楚:书面章程怎么写是一回事,付他们钱、并决定是否续聘他们做审计及其他业务的,是 CEO 和 CFO。最近出台的那些规矩,改不了这个现实。能打破

Audit committees can’t audit. Only a company’s outside auditor can determine whether the earnings that a management purports to have made are suspect. Reforms that ignore this reality and that instead focus on the structure and charter of the audit committee will accomplish little. As we’ve discussed, far too many managers have fudged their company’s numbers in recent years, using both accounting and operational techniques that are typically legal but that nevertheless materially mislead investors. Frequently, auditors knew about these deceptions. Too often, however, they remained silent. The key job of the audit committee is simply to get the auditors to divulge what they know. To do this job, the committee must make sure that the auditors worry more about misleading its members than about offending management. In recent years auditors have not felt that way. They have instead generally viewed the CEO, rather than the shareholders or directors, as their client. That has been a natural result of day-to-day working relationships and also of the auditors’ understanding that, no matter what the book says, the CEO and CFO pay their fees and determine whether they are retained for both auditing and other work. The rules that have been recently instituted won’t materially change this reality. What will break

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这层亲密关系的,是审计委员会毫不含糊地把审计师架到火上:让他们明白,若不把自己知道或怀疑的东西说出来,就要承担重大金钱处罚的责任。在我看来,审计委员会只需向审计师提四个问题,就能达成这一目标——问题的答案,应当记录在案并向股东披露。这四个问题是:

this cozy relationship is audit committees unequivocally putting auditors on the spot, making them understand they will become liable for major monetary penalties if they don’t come forth with what they know or suspect. In my opinion, audit committees can accomplish this goal by asking four questions of auditors, the answers to which should be recorded and reported to shareholders. These questions are: 1.

一、假如公司的财务报表全由审计师一手编制,其编法与管理层所选的方式,会不会有任何不同?这个问题应当涵盖重大差异和非重大差异。若审计师会有不同的做法,那么管理层的理由和审计师的回应都应披露出来,随后由审计委员会评判其中的是非。

If the auditor were solely responsible for preparation of the company’s financial statements, would they have in any way been prepared differently from the manner selected by management? This question should cover both material and nonmaterial differences. If the auditor would have done something differently, both management’s argument and the auditor’s response should be disclosed. The audit committee should then evaluate the facts.

2.
2.

二、假如审计师是一名投资者,他是否收到了——用大白话讲——理解公司在报告期内财务表现所必需的信息?

If the auditor were an investor, would he have received – in plain English – the information essential to his understanding the company’s financial performance during the reporting period?

3.
3.

三、公司所遵循的内部审计程序,是否与审计师本人若身为 CEO 时会采用的程序一致?若不一致,差别在哪里,又为何如此?

Is the company following the same internal audit procedure that would be followed if the auditor himself were CEO? If not, what are the differences and why?

4.
4.

四、审计师是否知晓任何以将收入或费用在报告期之间挪移为目的、并已收到此效果的举动——无论是会计上的还是运营上的?

Is the auditor aware of any actions – either accounting or operational – that have had the purpose and effect of moving revenues or expenses from one reporting period to another?

只要审计委员会问出这几个问题,委员会由谁组成——多数改革恰恰死盯着这一点——就变得无足轻重了。此外,这套做法还能省时省钱。审计师一旦被架上火,就会尽职尽责;一旦没被架上去……那么,后果我们已经领教过了。我们列出的这些问题,至少应在盈利报告向公众披露的一周前提出。留出这段时间,才能让审计师与管理层之间的分歧摆到委员会面前,充分讨论、就地解决。若时间过于仓促——盈利披露迫在眉睫,审计师和委员会才碰头——委员会就会迫于压力,只能给准备好的数字草草盖上橡皮图章。仓促是准确的天敌。事实上,我认为 SEC 最近缩短报告截止期限的做法,会拉低股东所获信息的质量。查理和我都觉得那条规则是个错误,理应撤销。我们这四个问题,最大的好处在于能起到预防作用。审计师一旦知道审计委员会要求他们主动认可、而非仅仅默许管理层的做法,就会在流程早期——远在那些站不住脚的数字被写进公司账簿之前——出手抵制不当之举。对原告律师的忌惮,会替我们把这一点管住。

If the audit committee asks these questions, its composition – the focus of most reforms – is of minor importance. In addition, the procedure will save time and expense. When auditors are put on the spot, they will do their duty. If they are not put on the spot . . . well, we have seen the results of that. The questions we have enumerated should be asked at least a week before an earnings report is released to the public. That timing will allow differences between the auditors and management to be aired with the committee and resolved. If the timing is tighter – if an earnings release is imminent when the auditors and committee interact – the committee will feel pressure to rubberstamp the prepared figures. Haste is the enemy of accuracy. My thinking, in fact, is that the SEC’s recent shortening of reporting deadlines will hurt the quality of information that shareholders receive. Charlie and I believe that rule is a mistake and should be rescinded. The primary advantage of our four questions is that they will act as a prophylactic. Once the auditors know that the audit committee will require them to affirmatively endorse, rather than merely acquiesce to, management’s actions, they will resist misdoings early in the process, well before specious figures become embedded in the company’s books. Fear of the plaintiff’s bar will see to that.

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去年九月,《芝加哥论坛报》刊出一组共四篇的安达信系列报道,出色地揭示了近年来会计准则与审计质量是如何一路滑坡的。几十年前,安达信出具的审计意见,堪称这个行当的黄金标准。公司内部有一支精英团队——专业标准小组(PSG),无论客户施加多大压力,都坚守诚实报告的底线。正是秉持这些原则,PSG 在 1992 年就旗帜鲜明地主张:股票期权的成本理应如实计为费用。然而,安达信那些深谙客户心思的“揽客”合伙人推翻了 PSG 的立场——他们清楚客户要的是什么:不管现实如何,报表利润越高越好。许多 CEO 也一起反对把期权费用化,因为他们心知肚明,一旦这些期权的真实成本必须入账,他们朝思暮想的天价期权大礼包就会被大砍一刀。安达信翻案后不久,独立的会计准则委员会(FASB)以 7 比 0 通过了期权费用化。不出所料,各大审计事务所和一大帮 CEO 蜂拥进华盛顿,向参议院施压——还有哪个机构比参议院更适合裁夺会计问题呢?——逼 FASB 就范。抗议者的嗓门,被他们数额庞大的政治献金放大了,而这些献金掏的,通常正是那些即将被蒙骗的股东的公司钱袋。这一幕,可上不得公民课的讲台。可耻的是,参议院以 88 票对 9 票否决了期权费用化。几位知名参议员甚至扬言,FASB 若不放弃立场,就该关门大吉。(所谓独立性,也就这么回事。)时任 SEC 主席的小阿瑟·莱维特——他一向是股东权益的警觉捍卫者——事后谈及自己当年如何不情愿地

The Chicago Tribune ran a four-part series on Arthur Andersen last September that did a great job of illuminating how accounting standards and audit quality have eroded in recent years. A few decades ago, an Arthur Andersen audit opinion was the gold standard of the profession. Within the firm, an elite Professional Standards Group (PSG) insisted on honest reporting, no matter what pressures were applied by the client. Sticking to these principles, the PSG took a stand in 1992 that the cost of stock options should be recorded as the expense it clearly was. The PSG’s position was reversed, however, by the “rainmaking” partners of Andersen who knew what their clients wanted – higher reported earnings no matter what the reality. Many CEOs also fought expensing because they knew that the obscene megagrants of options they craved would be slashed if the true costs of these had to be recorded. Soon after the Andersen reversal, the independent accounting standards board (FASB) voted 7-0 for expensing options. Predictably, the major auditing firms and an army of CEOs stormed Washington to pressure the Senate – what better institution to decide accounting questions? – into castrating the FASB. The voices of the protesters were amplified by their large political contributions, usually made with corporate money belonging to the very owners about to be bamboozled. It was not a sight for a civics class. To its shame, the Senate voted 88-9 against expensing. Several prominent Senators even called for the demise of the FASB if it didn’t abandon its position. (So much for independence.) Arthur Levitt, Jr., then Chairman of the SEC – and generally a vigilant champion of shareholders – has since described his reluctant

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屈从于国会和企业的压力,称这是他任主席期间最追悔的一件事。(这桩龌龊往事的来龙去脉,莱维特在他那本上乘之作《Take on the Street》里有详尽记述。)参议院进了口袋,SEC 又寡不敌众,美国企业界心里明白:在会计这件事上,如今是它们说了算。于是,一个盈利报告怎么报都行的新时代拉开了帷幕——这些数字不仅得到大牌审计师的祝福,有些甚至是被他们撺掇出来的。随之而来的放纵,很快就成了那场“大泡沫”的打气筒。挨了参议院一记威胁后,FASB 退守原有立场,转而采用一种“君子协定”式的办法:宣布费用化更为可取,却也允许公司但凡愿意,尽可对这笔成本视而不见。结果令人心灰:标普 500 里的 500 家公司,有 498 家选了那个被判定为较不可取的法子——这自然让它们得以报出更高的“盈利”。渴求薪酬的 CEO 们爱死了这个结局:荣誉留给 FASB,实惠归自己。在 1992 年的年报里,谈到那么多 CEO 那副不成体统、只顾私利的做派时,我曾说:“当商业精英在事关自身利益的问题上鼓吹那些荒谬之论时,他们就有可能在事关社会的重大问题上——本来他们对此或许大有可说——把自己的公信力赔了进去。”这份公信力,如今确已赔光。CEO 们眼下的任务,是重新赢回美国的信任——为了国家,他们必须做到。可他们靠的若是空洞的广告、毫无意义的政策声明,或董事会与委员会的架构调整,是断然成不了事的。相反,CEO 们必须把受托之责当成一种活法来践行,把股东当成合伙人,而不是待宰的冤大头。是 CEO 们拿出真行动的时候了。

bowing to Congressional and corporate pressures as the act of his chairmanship that he most regrets. (The details of this sordid affair are related in Levitt’s excellent book, Take on the Street.) With the Senate in its pocket and the SEC outgunned, corporate America knew that it was now boss when it came to accounting. With that, a new era of anything-goes earnings reports – blessed and, in some cases, encouraged by big-name auditors – was launched. The licentious behavior that followed quickly became an air pump for The Great Bubble. After being threatened by the Senate, FASB backed off its original position and adopted an “honor system” approach, declaring expensing to be preferable but also allowing companies to ignore the cost if they wished. The disheartening result: Of the 500 companies in the S&P, 498 adopted the method deemed less desirable, which of course let them report higher “earnings.” Compensation-hungry CEOs loved this outcome: Let FASB have the honor; they had the system. In our 1992 annual report, discussing the unseemly and self-serving behavior of so many CEOs, I said “the business elite risks losing its credibility on issues of significance to society – about which it may have much of value to say – when it advocates the incredible on issues of significance to itself.” That loss of credibility has occurred. The job of CEOs is now to regain America’s trust – and for the country’s sake it’s important that they do so. They will not succeed in this endeavor, however, by way of fatuous ads, meaningless policy statements, or structural changes of boards and committees. Instead, CEOs must embrace stewardship as a way of life and treat their owners as partners, not patsies. It’s time for CEOs to walk the walk.

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给投资者三条建议。第一,警惕那些会计孱弱的公司。若一家公司至今仍不把期权计为费用,或对养老金做出天马行空的假设,你就得当心。管理层在看得见的地方走了下作路数,暗地里多半也在如法炮制。厨房里,蟑螂从来不止一只。大肆吹嘘 EBITDA(息税折旧摊销前利润)尤其是一种阴损的做派。这么做,等于在暗示折旧算不得真费用——理由是它属于“非现金”支出。这是胡说。事实上,折旧是一种格外讨厌的费用,因为它所代表的现金早在所购资产给企业带来任何好处之前,就已先行付了出去。不妨设想:今年年初,一家公司就把全体员工未来十年的薪水一次付清(就像它为一项可用十年的固定资产预先掏出现金那样)。那么在往后的九年里,这笔薪酬就成了一项“非现金”费用——不过是在冲减今年设立的那笔预付薪酬资产。难道有谁会争辩说,第二年到第十年记录这笔费用,只是走个账面过场?第二,看不懂的报表附注,通常意味着管理层信不过。你若读不懂某条附注或管理层的其他解释,往往是因为 CEO 压根不想让你读懂。安然对某些交易的描述,至今仍让我一头雾水。最后,对那些大肆鼓吹盈利预测和增长预期的公司保持戒心。企业经营,鲜有风平浪静、毫无意外的时候,盈利根本不会一路平顺地往上走(当然,投资银行的招股说明书里除外)。查理和我,别说旗下企业明年能赚多少——我们连它们下个季度能赚多少都说不准。对那些三天两头声称自己看得清未来的 CEO,我们心存疑虑;而若他们还总能踩点达成自己放出的目标,我们就干脆彻底不信了。那些一贯拍胸脯保证“完成指标”的经理人,早晚有一天会经不住诱惑,去“编造”指标。

Three suggestions for investors: First, beware of companies displaying weak accounting. If a company still does not expense options, or if its pension assumptions are fanciful, watch out. When managements take the low road in aspects that are visible, it is likely they are following a similar path behind the scenes. There is seldom just one cockroach in the kitchen. Trumpeting EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) is a particularly pernicious practice. Doing so implies that depreciation is not truly an expense, given that it is a “non-cash” charge. That’s nonsense. In truth, depreciation is a particularly unattractive expense because the cash outlay it represents is paid up front, before the asset acquired has delivered any benefits to the business. Imagine, if you will, that at the beginning of this year a company paid all of its employees for the next ten years of their service (in the way they would lay out cash for a fixed asset to be useful for ten years). In the following nine years, compensation would be a “non-cash” expense – a reduction of a prepaid compensation asset established this year. Would anyone care to argue that the recording of the expense in years two through ten would be simply a bookkeeping formality? Second, unintelligible footnotes usually indicate untrustworthy management. If you can’t understand a footnote or other managerial explanation, it’s usually because the CEO doesn’t want you to. Enron’s descriptions of certain transactions still baffle me. Finally, be suspicious of companies that trumpet earnings projections and growth expectations. Businesses seldom operate in a tranquil, no-surprise environment, and earnings simply don’t advance smoothly (except, of course, in the offering books of investment bankers). Charlie and I not only don’t know today what our businesses will earn next year – we don’t even know what they will earn next quarter. We are suspicious of those CEOs who regularly claim they do know the future – and we become downright incredulous if they consistently reach their declared targets. Managers that always promise to “make the numbers” will at some point be tempted to make up the numbers.

股东指定捐款

Shareholder-Designated Contributions

在伯克希尔 2002 年的股东指定捐赠计划中,约 97.3% 的合格股份参与其中,捐赠总额达 1650 万美元。计划推行 22 年来,伯克希尔已按股东的指示累计捐出 1.97 亿美元。伯克希尔其余的捐赠,由旗下子公司完成,它们沿袭各自被收购前既有的慈善路数(只是原来的

About 97.3% of all eligible shares participated in Berkshire's 2002 shareholder-designated contributions program, with contributions totaling $16.5 million. Cumulatively, over the 22 years of the program, Berkshire has made contributions of $197 million pursuant to the instructions of our shareholders. The rest of Berkshire's giving is done by our subsidiaries, which stick to the philanthropic patterns that prevailed before they were acquired (except that their former

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股东们自己承担起个人慈善捐赠的责任)。总体来看,2002 年我们子公司的捐款总额为 2400 万美元,其中包括 400 万美元的实物捐赠。要参与未来的捐赠计划,您必须持有以实际所有人名义登记的 A 类股票,而不是以经纪人、银行或存管机构的名义登记。在 2003 年 8 月 31 日未按此方式登记的股票,将没有资格参与 2003 年度的计划。当您收到我们寄来的捐赠表格后,请及时将其寄回,以免被搁置或遗忘。超过截止日期后指定的捐赠将不予受理。

owners themselves take on the responsibility for their personal charities). In aggregate, our subsidiaries made contributions of $24 million in 2002, including in-kind donations of $4 million. To participate in future programs, you must own Class A shares that are registered in the name of the actual owner, not the nominee name of a broker, bank or depository. Shares not so registered on August 31, 2003 will be ineligible for the 2003 program. When you get the contributions form from us, return it promptly so that it does not get put aside or forgotten. Designations received after the due date will not be honored.

股东大会

The Annual Meeting

今年的股东大会将于 5 月 3 日星期六举行,地点仍在市政礼堂。会场早上 7 点开门,电影 8:30 开映,会议本身 9:30 开始。中午会有短暂的休息,供大家用餐(市政礼堂的小卖部备有三明治)。这段间歇之外,我和查理会一直答问到下午 3:30。尽管把你们最刁钻的问题抛过来。随本报告附上的委托材料中有一份附件,会说明如何获取参会及其他活动所需的入场凭证。至于机票、酒店和租车预订,我们再次签下了美国运通(800-799-6634)为您提供特别协助。他们每年都为我们办得极为出色,在此谨致谢意。一如往常,我们会安排大巴从各大酒店驶往会场。散会后,大巴会载您返回酒店,并前往内布拉斯加家具城、波仙珠宝和机场。即便如此,您多半还是会发现有辆车更方便。今年,我们伯克希尔产品和服务的展销场地将比以往更大、更好。所以请准备好花钱。我想您会特别享受参观“乐厨”展台,说不定还能在那儿碰上多丽丝和希拉。GEICO 将设一个展位,由来自全国各地的多位顶尖顾问坐镇,随时为您提供车险报价。多数情况下,GEICO 都能给您一项专属的股东折扣(通常是 8%)。在我们经营业务的 49 个法域中,有 41 个允许这项优惠。带上您现有保单的详细信息,来看看我们能否帮您省钱。星期六,在奥马哈机场,我们将照例摆出一排 NetJets® 的飞机供您参观。想看哪一架,向市政礼堂的代表问一声即可。要是这个周末您按我们的标准买够了东西,没准真需要一架自己的飞机才能把它们运回家。此外,您若买下飞机的部分产权,我亲自保证您会得到一套 Fruit of the Loom 的三条装内裤。内布拉斯加家具城,坐落于道奇街与太平洋街之间 72 街上的一块 77 英亩土地上,我们将再次推出“伯克希尔周末”特价,这意味着我们将为股东提供通常只给员工的折扣。这项特价我们六年前在 NFM 首创,周末期间的销售额,从 1997 年的 530 万美元增长到 2002 年的 1420 万美元。要享此折扣,您须在 5 月 1 日星期四至 5 月 5 日星期一间购物,并出示您的参会凭证。这个周末的特价,甚至将适用于几家声名显赫的厂商的产品——这些厂商平日对打折有铁一般的规矩,但本着我们股东周末的精神,为您破例了。我们感谢它们的合作。NFM 工作日营业时间为上午 10 点至晚上 9 点,周日为上午 10 点至下午 6 点。今年星期六下午 6 点到晚上 10 点,我们将专为股东举办一场特别活动。我会到场,吃着热狗、喝着可乐。波仙珠宝——全美除蒂芙尼曼哈顿店外最大的珠宝店——将举办两场股东专场活动。第一场是 5 月 2 日星期五晚上 6 点到 10 点的鸡尾酒招待会。第二场是重头戏,于 5 月 4 日星期日上午 9 点到下午 5 点举行。记得请查理在您的购物小票上签名。股东优惠价从星期四到星期一都有效,所以您若想避开星期五晚上和星期日聚集的人潮,不妨在其他时段光临,并亮明您的股东身份。

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This year’s annual meeting will be held on Saturday, May 3, and once again we will be at the Civic Auditorium. The doors will open at 7 a.m., the movie will begin at 8:30, and the meeting itself will commence at 9:30. There will be a short break at noon for food. (Sandwiches will be available at the Civic’s concession stands.) That interlude aside, Charlie and I will answer questions until 3:30. Give us your best shot. An attachment to the proxy material that is enclosed with this report explains how you can obtain the credential you will need for admission to the meeting and other events. As for plane, hotel and car reservations, we have again signed up American Express (800-799-6634) to give you special help. They do a terrific job for us each year, and I thank them for it. In our usual fashion, we will run vans from the larger hotels to the meeting. Afterwards, the vans will make trips back to the hotels and to Nebraska Furniture Mart, Borsheim’s and the airport. Even so, you are likely to find a car useful. Our exhibit area for Berkshire goods and services will be bigger and better than ever this year. So be prepared to spend. I think you will particularly enjoy visiting The Pampered Chef display, where you may run into Doris and Sheila. GEICO will have a booth staffed by a number of its top counselors from around the country, all of them ready to supply you with auto insurance quotes. In most cases, GEICO will be able to give you a special shareholder discount (usually 8%). This special offer is permitted by 41 of the 49 jurisdictions in which we operate. Bring the details of your existing insurance and check out whether we can save you money. On Saturday, at the Omaha airport, we will have the usual array of aircraft from NetJets® available for your inspection. Just ask a representative at the Civic about viewing any of these planes. If you buy what we consider an appropriate number of items during the weekend, you may well need your own plane to take them home. Furthermore, if you buy a fraction of a plane, I’ll personally see that you get a three-pack of briefs from Fruit of the Loom. At Nebraska Furniture Mart, located on a 77-acre site on 72nd Street between Dodge and Pacific, we will again be having “Berkshire Weekend” pricing, which means we will be offering our shareholders a discount that is customarily given only to employees. We initiated this special pricing at NFM six years ago, and sales during the “Weekend” grew from $5.3 million in 1997 to $14.2 million in 2002. To get the discount, you must make your purchases during the Thursday, May 1 through Monday, May 5 period and also present your meeting credential. The period’s special pricing will even apply to the products of several prestigious manufacturers that normally have ironclad rules against discounting but that, in the spirit of our shareholder weekend, have made an exception for you. We appreciate their cooperation. NFM is open from 10 a.m. to 9 p.m. on weekdays and 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Sundays. On Saturday this year, from 6 p.m. to 10 p.m., we are having a special affair for shareholders only. I’ll be there, eating hot dogs and drinking Coke. Borsheim’s  the largest jewelry store in the country except for Tiffany’s Manhattan store  will have two shareholder-only events. The first will be a cocktail reception from 6 p.m. to 10 p.m. on Friday, May 2. The second, the main gala, will be from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. on Sunday, May 4. Ask Charlie to autograph your sales ticket. Shareholder prices will be available Thursday through Monday, so if you wish to avoid the large crowds that will assemble on Friday evening and Sunday, come at other times and identify yourself as a

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周六,我们营业到下午 6 点。波仙珠宝的毛利率比它的主要对手整整低 20 个百分点,所以你买得越多,省得越多(至少我妻子和女儿是这么跟我说的)。在波仙珠宝外面的商场里,周日下午我们会请来几位世界顶尖的桥牌高手,陪股东们过招。我们预计鲍勃·哈曼、莎伦·奥斯伯格、弗雷德·吉特尔曼和雪莉·温斯托克会各主一桌。两届全美象棋冠军帕特里克·沃尔夫也会在商场里迎战所有来客——而且是蒙着眼睛下的!去年,帕特里克蒙着眼布同时下六盘棋,头一回尝到败绩。(不过他赢下了另外五盘。)打那以后他一直加练,打算今年重启一波连胜。此外,仅有的两位两夺世界双陆棋冠军的选手之一比尔·罗伯特利,也会到场检验你在这项棋艺上的功夫。最后,我们还添了一位新人:1991 年世界拼字大赛冠军彼得·莫里斯。彼得会同时在五块棋盘上迎战(不过他不蒙眼),还允许挑战者查阅拼字词典。我们也想在商场里考考你的嗓子。我的朋友、费城的阿尔·厄尔利会坐在钢琴前,任你点什么歌、要什么调都弹得出。苏西和我会领唱。她唱得很好。戈拉特餐厅——我最爱的牛排馆——将于 5 月 4 日星期日再度只对伯克希尔股东开放,供餐时间从下午 4 点到晚上 10 点。请记牢,星期日想去戈拉特,必须先订位。订位请在 4 月 1 日拨打 402-551-3733(可别提前打)。若星期日已订满,就挑你在城里的其他晚上去戈拉特试试。点一份三分熟的 T 骨牛排、外加双份薯饼,好显出你是个行家。今年不会有棒球赛了。自打去年我投出的快球被测出时速只有 5 英里,我就决定挂靴收山。所以,星期六晚上,咱们改在 NFM 见。

shareholder. On Saturday, we will be open until 6 p.m. Borsheim’s operates on a gross margin that is fully twenty percentage points below that of its major rivals, so the more you buy, the more you save (or at least that’s what my wife and daughter tell me). In the mall outside of Borsheim’s, we will have some of the world’s top bridge experts available to play with our shareholders on Sunday afternoon. We expect Bob Hamman, Sharon Osberg, Fred Gitelman and Sheri Winestock to host tables. Patrick Wolff, twice U.S. chess champion, will also be in the mall, taking on all comers  blindfolded! Last year, Patrick played six games simultaneously  with his blindfold securely in place  and for the first time suffered a loss. (He won the other five games, however.) He’s been training overtime ever since and is planning to start a new streak this year. Additionally, Bill Robertie, one of only two players who have twice won the backgammon world championship, will be on hand to test your skill at that game. Finally, we will have a newcomer: Peter Morris, the winner of the World Scrabble Championship in 1991. Peter will play on five boards simultaneously (no blindfold for him, however) and will also allow his challengers to consult a Scrabble dictionary. We are also going to test your vocal chords at the mall. My friend, Al Oehrle of Philadelphia, will be at the piano to play any song in any key. Susie and I will lead the singing. She is good. Gorat’s  my favorite steakhouse  will again be open exclusively for Berkshire shareholders on Sunday, May 4, and will be serving from 4 p.m. until 10 p.m. Please remember that to come to Gorat’s on Sunday, you must have a reservation. To make one, call 402-551-3733 on April 1 (but not before). If Sunday is sold out, try Gorat’s on one of the other evenings you will be in town. Show your sophistication by ordering a rare T-bone with a double order of hash browns. There won’t be a ball game this year. After my fastball was clocked at 5 mph last year, I decided to hang up my spikes. So I’ll see you on Saturday night at NFM instead.

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明年的股东大会将在奥马哈新的会展中心举行。这一地点变更将使我们能将会期定在星期六或星期一,具体由你们中的大多数人投票决定。请使用随函附上的特别选票,投出你的偏好——但仅限于你日后有可能参会的情况。我们将根据股东人数而非持股数量来做出星期六或星期一的决定。也就是说,持有一股 B 股的股东,其投票权与持有许多股 A 股的一位股东同等。如果投票结果接近,我们将优先考虑外地股东的选择。再次说明,只有当你未来有合理可能出席某些会议时,才请投票。

Next year our meeting will be held at Omaha’s new convention center. This switch in locations will allow us to hold the event on either Saturday or Monday, whichever the majority of you prefer. Using the enclosed special ballot, please vote for your preference – but only if you are likely to attend in the future. We will make the Saturday/Monday decision based upon a count of shareholders, not shares. That is, a Class B shareholder owning one share will have a vote equal to that of a Class A shareholder owning many shares. If the vote is close, we will go with the preference of out-of-towners. Again, please vote only if there is a reasonable chance that you will be attending some meetings in the future.

2003 年 2 月 21 日

February 21, 2003

沃伦·E·巴菲特

董事会主席

Warren E. Buffett Chairman of the Board

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