2011 年致股东信

致股东信 · 原文约 13565 词
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伯克希尔的公司业绩 vs. 标普 500 指数

Berkshire’s Corporate Performance vs. the S&P 500

伯克希尔每股账面价值与标普500(含股息)的年度百分比变化相对结果
年度(1) (2)(1)-(2)
196523.8 10.013.8
196620.3 (11.7)32.0
196711.0 30.9(19.9)
196819.0 11.08.0
196916.2 (8.4)24.6
197012.0 3.98.1
197116.4 14.61.8
197221.7 18.92.8
19734.7 (14.8)19.5
19745.5 (26.4)31.9
197521.9 37.2(15.3)
197659.3 23.635.7
197731.9 (7.4)39.3
197824.0 6.417.6
197935.7 18.217.5
198019.3 32.3(13.0)
198131.4 (5.0)36.4
198240.0 21.418.6
198332.3 22.49.9
198413.6 6.17.5
198548.2 31.616.6
198626.1 18.67.5
198719.5 5.114.4
198820.1 16.63.5
198944.4 31.712.7
19907.4 (3.1)10.5
199139.6 30.59.1
199220.3 7.612.7
199314.3 10.14.2
199413.9 1.312.6
199543.1 37.65.5
199631.8 23.08.8
199734.1 33.4.7
199848.3 28.619.7
1999.5 21.0(20.5)
20006.5 (9.1)15.6
2001(6.2) (11.9)5.7
200210.0 (22.1)32.1
200321.0 28.7(7.7)
200410.5 10.9(.4)
20056.4 4.91.5
200618.4 15.82.6
200711.0 5.55.5
2008(9.6) (37.0)27.4
200919.8 26.5(6.7)
201013.0 15.1(2.1)
20114.6 2.12.5
复合年化收益率 – 1965-201119.8% 9.2%10.6
整体收益——1964-2011513,055% 6,397%
Annual Percentage Change in Per-Share in S&P 500 Book Value of with Dividends Berkshire IncludedRelative Results
Year(1) (2)(1)-(2)
196523.8 10.013.8
196620.3 (11.7)32.0
196711.0 30.9(19.9)
196819.0 11.08.0
196916.2 (8.4)24.6
197012.0 3.98.1
197116.4 14.61.8
197221.7 18.92.8
19734.7 (14.8)19.5
19745.5 (26.4)31.9
197521.9 37.2(15.3)
197659.3 23.635.7
197731.9 (7.4)39.3
197824.0 6.417.6
197935.7 18.217.5
198019.3 32.3(13.0)
198131.4 (5.0)36.4
198240.0 21.418.6
198332.3 22.49.9
198413.6 6.17.5
198548.2 31.616.6
198626.1 18.67.5
198719.5 5.114.4
198820.1 16.63.5
198944.4 31.712.7
19907.4 (3.1)10.5
199139.6 30.59.1
199220.3 7.612.7
199314.3 10.14.2
199413.9 1.312.6
199543.1 37.65.5
199631.8 23.08.8
199734.1 33.4.7
199848.3 28.619.7
1999.5 21.0(20.5)
20006.5 (9.1)15.6
2001(6.2) (11.9)5.7
200210.0 (22.1)32.1
200321.0 28.7(7.7)
200410.5 10.9(.4)
20056.4 4.91.5
200618.4 15.82.6
200711.0 5.55.5
2008(9.6) (37.0)27.4
200919.8 26.5(6.7)
201013.0 15.1(2.1)
20114.6 2.12.5
Compounded Annual Gain – 1965-201119.8% 9.2%10.6
Overall Gain – 1964-2011513,055% 6,397%

注:数据按日历年度列示,以下年份除外:1965 年和 1966 年截至 9 月 30 日;1967 年为截至 12 月 31 日的 15 个月。自 1979 年起,会计准则要求保险公司按市价计量所持权益证券,而非此前采用的成本与市价孰低法。本表中,伯克希尔截至 1978 年的业绩已按修订后的规则重新列报,其余各项均按最初报告的数值计算。标普 500 指数的数字为税前口径,伯克希尔的数字为税后口径。若一家公司像伯克希尔这样只是简单持有标普 500 指数并计提相应税款,那么在指数录得正回报的年份,其业绩会落后于标普 500;在指数录得负回报的年份,则会超过标普 500。多年累积下来,税收成本会让这一落后的总幅度相当可观。

Notes: Data are for calendar years with these exceptions: 1965 and 1966, year ended 9/30; 1967, 15 months ended 12/31. Starting in 1979, accounting rules required insurance companies to value the equity securities they hold at market rather than at the lower of cost or market, which was previously the requirement. In this table, Berkshire’s results through 1978 have been restated to conform to the changed rules. In all other respects, the results are calculated using the numbers originally reported. The S&P 500 numbers are pre-tax whereas the Berkshire numbers are aftertax. If a corporation such as Berkshire were simply to have owned the S&P 500 and accrued the appropriate taxes, its results would have lagged the S&P 500 in years when that index showed a positive return, but would have exceeded the S&P 500 in years when the index showed a negative return. Over the years, the tax costs would have caused the aggregate lag to be substantial.

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伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.

致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的股东:

To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

2011 年,我们 A 类股和 B 类股的每股账面价值均增长了 4.6%。过去 47 年间(即自现任管理层接手以来),账面价值从 19 美元增长到 99,860 美元,年复合增长率为 19.8%。* 查理·芒格是伯克希尔的副董事长,也是我的搭档,我们两人对公司这一年的进展感到满意。

The per-share book value of both our Class A and Class B stock increased by 4.6% in 2011. Over the last 47 years (that is, since present management took over), book value has grown from $19 to $99,860, a rate of 19.8% compounded annually.* Charlie Munger, Berkshire’s Vice Chairman and my partner, and I feel good about the company’s

以下是 2011 年的几大亮点:

progress during 2011. Here are the highlights:

董事会的第一要务,是确保企业交由合适的人掌管,并确保下一代领导者已经物色到位、随时可以接棒。我先后在 19 家公司担任过董事,论继任规划所投入的时间和心力,伯克希尔的董事们首屈一指。更难得的是,他们的努力已见成效。2011 年初,托德·康布斯以投资经理的身份加入我们;年底刚过,泰德·韦施勒也随即加盟。这两人都有卓越的投资才能,对伯克希尔忠心不二。2012 年,两人各自将管理数十亿美元资金,而以他们的头脑、判断力和品格,等到查理和我不再执掌伯克希尔时,他们完全有能力打理我们的整个投资组合。对于我的首席执行官继任人选,董事会同样满怀热情——这位人选他们已经有过大量接触,其管理才干和为人品格都令董事们钦佩。(我们还备有两位极为出色的候补人选。)一旦需要交接职责,过程将天衣无缝,伯克希尔的前景依然光明。我个人净资产的 98% 以上是伯克希尔股票,这些股票最终都将捐给各家慈善机构。把身家如此集中在一只股票上,有悖常理,但我对这样的安排毫不担心——我清楚我们旗下企业的质地与多元,也了解那些经营者的能力。有了这些资产,我的继任者一上任就能高歌猛进。不过,别从这番话里推断查理和我要退隐了;我们身体依旧硬朗,也热爱手头的一切。

The primary job of a Board of Directors is to see that the right people are running the business and to be sure that the next generation of leaders is identified and ready to take over tomorrow. I have been on 19 corporate boards, and Berkshire’s directors are at the top of the list in the time and diligence they have devoted to succession planning. What’s more, their efforts have paid off. As 2011 started, Todd Combs joined us as an investment manager, and shortly after yearend Ted Weschler came aboard. Both of these men have outstanding investment skills and a deep commitment to Berkshire. Each will be handling a few billion dollars in 2012, but they have the brains, judgment and character to manage our entire portfolio when Charlie and I are no longer running Berkshire. Your Board is equally enthusiastic about my successor as CEO, an individual to whom they have had a great deal of exposure and whose managerial and human qualities they admire. (We have two superb back-up candidates as well.) When a transfer of responsibility is required, it will be seamless, and Berkshire’s prospects will remain bright. More than 98% of my net worth is in Berkshire stock, all of which will go to various philanthropies. Being so heavily concentrated in one stock defies conventional wisdom. But I’m fine with this arrangement, knowing both the quality and diversity of the businesses we own and the caliber of the people who manage them. With these assets, my successor will enjoy a running start. Do not, however, infer from this discussion that Charlie and I are going anywhere; we continue to be in excellent health, and we love what we do.

9 月 16 日,我们收购了路博润(Lubrizol),一家生产添加剂及其他特种化学品的全球性企业。自 2004 年詹姆斯·汉布里克(James Hambrick)出任首席执行官以来,这家公司战绩斐然,税前利润从 1.47 亿美元增长到 10.85 亿美元。路博润在特种化学品领域有大量“补强型”收购的机会。事实上,我们已经敲定三笔,总价 4.93 亿美元。詹姆斯是位下手有度的买家,也是位一流的经营者。查理和我都盼着为他扩大用武之地。

On September 16th we acquired Lubrizol, a worldwide producer of additives and other specialty chemicals. The company has had an outstanding record since James Hambrick became CEO in 2004, with pre-tax profits increasing from $147 million to $1,085 million. Lubrizol will have many opportunities for “bolt-on” acquisitions in the specialty chemical field. Indeed, we’ve already agreed to three, costing $493 million. James is a disciplined buyer and a superb operator. Charlie and I are eager to expand his managerial domain.

我们去年的几大主业表现良好。事实上,五家规模最大的非保险公司——伯灵顿北方圣达菲铁路(BNSF)、伊斯卡、路博润、马蒙集团和中美能源——全部创下了经营利润记录。2011 年,这些公司税前利润合计超 90 亿美元。与此形成对比的是七年前,当时这五家公司里我们只拥有中美能源,其税前利润为 3.93 亿美元。除非 2012 年经济走弱,否则我们这出类拔萃的五巨头均有望再创纪录,合计利润将轻松突破 100 亿美元大关。

<<<END PAIR 10>>>

Our major businesses did well last year. In fact, each of our five largest non-insurance companies – BNSF, Iscar, Lubrizol, Marmon Group and MidAmerican Energy – delivered record operating earnings. In aggregate these businesses earned more than $9 billion pre-tax in 2011. Contrast that to seven years ago, when we owned only one of the five, MidAmerican, whose pre-tax earnings were $393 million. Unless the economy weakens in 2012, each of our fabulous five should again set a record, with aggregate earnings comfortably topping $10 billion.

本报告中所有每股数据均以伯克希尔 A 股为准。B 股的对应数据为 A 股所示数值的 1/1500。³

  • All per-share figures used in this report apply to Berkshire’s A shares. Figures for the B shares are 1/1500th of those shown for A. 3

总体来看,2011 年我们旗下所有运营公司在不动产、厂房和设备上共投入 82 亿美元,比先前的纪录高出 20 多亿美元。其中约 95% 投在美国国内——这个事实,恐怕会让那些认定美国缺乏投资机会的人大吃一惊。海外项目我们自然欢迎,但可以预见,伯克希尔未来绝大部分的资本投入仍将落在美国。2012 年,这项支出还会再创新高。

In total, our entire string of operating companies spent $8.2 billion for property, plant and equipment in 2011, smashing our previous record by more than $2 billion. About 95% of these outlays were made in the U.S., a fact that may surprise those who believe our country lacks investment opportunities. We welcome projects abroad, but expect the overwhelming majority of Berkshire’s future capital commitments to be in America. In 2012, these expenditures will again set a record.

我们的保险业务持续提供着无成本的资金,为林林总总的其他机会输血。这项业务会产生“浮存金”——这些钱不归我们所有,却任由我们为伯克希尔的利益去投资。而且,只要我们赔出去的损失和费用少于收进来的保费,就还能额外挣到一笔承保利润,也就是说,这笔浮存金的成本还不到零。虽然承保亏损时不时总会出现,但截至目前,我们已连续九年实现承保盈利,累计约 170 亿美元。同样这九年里,我们的浮存金从 410 亿美元增长到如今创纪录的 700 亿美元。保险业务待我们不薄。

Our insurance operations continued their delivery of costless capital that funds a myriad of other opportunities. This business produces “float” – money that doesn’t belong to us, but that we get to invest for Berkshire’s benefit. And if we pay out less in losses and expenses than we receive in premiums, we additionally earn an underwriting profit, meaning the float costs us less than nothing. Though we are sure to have underwriting losses from time to time, we’ve now had nine consecutive years of underwriting profits, totaling about $17 billion. Over the same nine years our float increased from $41 billion to its current record of $70 billion. Insurance has been good to us.

最后,我们在公开交易证券上做了两笔大投资:其一,斥资 50 亿美元买入美国银行年息 6% 的优先股,并附带认股权证,允许我们在 2021 年 9 月 2 日之前,以每股 7.14 美元的价格买入 7 亿股普通股;其二,以 109 亿美元买入 6390 万股 IBM 股票。算上 IBM,我们如今对四家杰出公司持有大额股份:美国运通 13.0%、可口可乐 8.8%、IBM 5.5%、富国银行 7.6%。(当然,我们还有许多规模较小但同样重要的持仓。)这些股份,我们视为对优秀企业的合伙权益,而非依据短期前景买进卖出的证券。不过,这些公司挣到的利润,远未在我们的报表里充分体现——只有它们派发给我们的股息,才会出现在伯克希尔的财务报告中。可是随着时间推移,归属我们所有的那部分未分配利润,对我们意义重大。因为被投资公司会以各种方式动用这些留存收益,去做大未来的利润和股息;也可能拿去回购股票,从而抬高我们在其未来利润中所占的份额。假如去年一整年我们都持有目前的头寸,从“四巨头”那里收到的股息会是 8.62 亿美元——而这就是伯克希尔损益表上所能体现的全部。但我们应占这四家公司的利润要高得多:33 亿美元。查理和我相信,那没有计入我们账面的 24 亿美元,至少为伯克希尔创造了同等的价值,因为它会成为未来年份利润增长的燃料。我们预计,这四家公司的合计利润——连同它们的股息——在 2012 年都会增加,而且在往后很长一段时间里,几乎年年都会增加。十年之后,我们目前在这四家公司的持仓,很可能对应 70 亿美元的利润,其中 20 亿美元会以股息形式流入我们手中。好消息讲完了,下面说几件 2011 年让我们吃了亏的事:

Finally, we made two major investments in marketable securities: (1) a $5 billion 6% preferred stock of Bank of America that came with warrants allowing us to buy 700 million common shares at $7.14 per share any time before September 2, 2021; and (2) 63.9 million shares of IBM that cost us $10.9 billion. Counting IBM, we now have large ownership interests in four exceptional companies: 13.0% of American Express, 8.8% of Coca-Cola, 5.5% of IBM and 7.6% of Wells Fargo. (We also, of course, have many smaller, but important, positions.) We view these holdings as partnership interests in wonderful businesses, not as marketable securities to be bought or sold based on their near-term prospects. Our share of their earnings, however, are far from fully reflected in our earnings; only the dividends we receive from these businesses show up in our financial reports. Over time, though, the undistributed earnings of these companies that are attributable to our ownership are of huge importance to us. That’s because they will be used in a variety of ways to increase future earnings and dividends of the investee. They may also be devoted to stock repurchases, which will increase our share of the company’s future earnings. Had we owned our present positions throughout last year, our dividends from the “Big Four” would have been $862 million. That’s all that would have been reported in Berkshire’s income statement. Our share of this quartet’s earnings, however, would have been far greater: $3.3 billion. Charlie and I believe that the $2.4 billion that goes unreported on our books creates at least that amount of value for Berkshire as it fuels earnings gains in future years. We expect the combined earnings of the four – and their dividends as well – to increase in 2012 and, for that matter, almost every year for a long time to come. A decade from now, our current holdings of the four companies might well account for earnings of $7 billion, of which $2 billion in dividends would come to us. I’ve run out of good news. Here are some developments that hurt us during 2011:

几年前,我花了大约 20 亿美元,买入 Energy Future Holdings 发行的几笔债券,这是一家为得克萨斯州部分地区供电的电力公司。那是个错误——一个大错误。这家公司的前景很大程度上系于天然气价格,而我们买入后不久,气价就一头栽了下去,至今仍在低位徘徊。虽然自买入以来,我们每年都能收到约 1.02 亿美元的利息,但除非气价大幅回升,否则公司的偿付能力很快就会耗尽。2010 年,我们把这笔投资减记了 10 亿美元,去年又减记了 3.9 亿美元。到年底,这些债券在我们账上按 8.78 亿美元的市值计价。如果气价维持在当前水平,我们很可能还要蒙受损失,其金额之大,或许会几乎抹平目前的账面价值。反过来说,气价若能大幅上涨,我们或许能收回部分乃至全部减记。但无论结局如何,我在买入这些债券时,对盈亏概率的判断完全失了准头。用网球的行话说,这是你们董事长的一记重大非受迫性失误。

A few years back, I spent about $2 billion buying several bond issues of Energy Future Holdings, an electric utility operation serving portions of Texas. That was a mistake – a big mistake. In large measure, the company’s prospects were tied to the price of natural gas, which tanked shortly after our purchase and remains depressed. Though we have annually received interest payments of about $102 million since our purchase, the company’s ability to pay will soon be exhausted unless gas prices rise substantially. We wrote down our investment by $1 billion in 2010 and by an additional $390 million last year. At yearend, we carried the bonds at their market value of $878 million. If gas prices remain at present levels, we will likely face a further loss, perhaps in an amount that will virtually wipe out our current carrying value. Conversely, a substantial increase in gas prices might allow us to recoup some, or even all, of our write-down. However things turn out, I totally miscalculated the gain/loss probabilities when I purchased the bonds. In tennis parlance, this was a major unforced error by your chairman.

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2011 年,三笔大额且极具吸引力的固定收益投资,被发行人从我们手中赎回。瑞士再保险、高盛和通用电气合计向伯克希尔支付了 128 亿美元,赎回了每年为我们贡献约 12 亿美元税前利润的证券。这么大一块收入要重新补上并不容易,好在收购路博润在很大程度上填了缺口。

Three large and very attractive fixed-income investments were called away from us by their issuers in 2011. Swiss Re, Goldman Sachs and General Electric paid us an aggregate of $12.8 billion to redeem securities that were producing about $1.2 billion of pre-tax earnings for Berkshire. That’s a lot of income to replace, though our Lubrizol purchase did offset most of it.

去年,我曾告诉各位,“住房市场大概一年左右就会开始复苏”。我大错特错。我们有五家企业的业绩深受住房活动牵动。在克莱顿住宅,这种关联最为直接——它是全美最大的住宅生产商,2011 年建造的房屋约占全国总量的 7%。此外,阿克米砖业、萧氏(地毯)、约翰斯·曼维尔(保温材料)和米泰克(建筑产品,主要是屋顶用的连接板),也都受建筑活动的重大影响。2011 年,这五家住房相关企业税前利润合计 5.13 亿美元,与 2010 年相近,但远低于 2006 年的 18 亿美元。住房市场终会回来——这一点你们尽可放心。长期来看,住房单元数量理应和家庭户数相匹配(在允许正常空置率的前提下)。可是 2008 年之前的若干年里,美国新增住房单元超过了新增家庭。不可避免的是,最终房子严重过剩,泡沫破裂时的猛烈冲击撼动了整个经济。这又给住房市场惹出另一个麻烦:衰退初期,家庭组建速度放缓,而 2009 年的放缓尤为剧烈。如今,这种极具破坏性的供需关系已经逆转:我们每天新增家庭户数都超过新建住房单元。在不确定的年头,人们或许会推迟成家,但荷尔蒙终究会占上风。虽说衰退期一些人起初会选择“合住”,但与姻亲同住很快就会失去吸引力。按我们目前每年 60 万套的住房开工速度——远低于新增家庭户数——买家和租客正把旧日的过剩库存一点点消化。(受各地供需差异影响,这个过程在全国各地的完成速度会不尽相同。)然而,在这一疗愈过程进行的同时,我们的住房相关企业却步履维艰,雇员人数只有 43,315 人,而 2006 年是 58,769 人。这个极其重要的经济部门——不只是建筑业,还包括所有仰赖它为生的产业——仍深陷于自身的萧条之中。我认为,这正是在其他几乎所有经济部门都已出现稳健且显著回升之时,就业复苏却严重落后的主要原因。明智的货币和财政政策,在缓和衰退方面确实有重要作用,但这些工具既造不出家庭户数,也消不掉过剩的住房。所幸,人口结构和我们的市场体系将恢复所需的平衡——很可能用不了多久。那一天到来时,我们又会每年建起 100 万套乃至更多住宅。我相信,届时失业率下降的幅度会让评论家们大跌眼镜。他们将再次意识到那个自 1776 年以来始终成立的道理:美国最好的日子还在前头。

Last year, I told you that “a housing recovery will probably begin within a year or so.” I was dead wrong. We have five businesses whose results are significantly influenced by housing activity. The connection is direct at Clayton Homes, which is the largest producer of homes in the country, accounting for about 7% of those constructed during 2011. Additionally, Acme Brick, Shaw (carpet), Johns Manville (insulation) and MiTek (building products, primarily connector plates used in roofing) are all materially affected by construction activity. In aggregate, our five housing-related companies had pre-tax profits of $513 million in 2011. That’s similar to 2010 but down from $1.8 billion in 2006. Housing will come back – you can be sure of that. Over time, the number of housing units necessarily matches the number of households (after allowing for a normal level of vacancies). For a period of years prior to 2008, however, America added more housing units than households. Inevitably, we ended up with far too many units and the bubble popped with a violence that shook the entire economy. That created still another problem for housing: Early in a recession, household formations slow, and in 2009 the decrease was dramatic. That devastating supply/demand equation is now reversed: Every day we are creating more households than housing units. People may postpone hitching up during uncertain times, but eventually hormones take over. And while “doubling-up” may be the initial reaction of some during a recession, living with in-laws can quickly lose its allure. At our current annual pace of 600,000 housing starts – considerably less than the number of new households being formed – buyers and renters are sopping up what’s left of the old oversupply. (This process will run its course at different rates around the country; the supply-demand situation varies widely by locale.) While this healing takes place, however, our housing-related companies sputter, employing only 43,315 people compared to 58,769 in 2006. This hugely important sector of the economy, which includes not only construction but everything that feeds off of it, remains in a depression of its own. I believe this is the major reason a recovery in employment has so severely lagged the steady and substantial comeback we have seen in almost all other sectors of our economy. Wise monetary and fiscal policies play an important role in tempering recessions, but these tools don’t create households nor eliminate excess housing units. Fortunately, demographics and our market system will restore the needed balance – probably before long. When that day comes, we will again build one million or more residential units annually. I believe pundits will be surprised at how far unemployment drops once that happens. They will then reawake to what has been true since 1776: America’s best days lie ahead.

查理和我,是通过伯克希尔每股内在商业价值的增长速度来衡量自己的表现。如果我们的增长长期跑赢标普 500 指数,就对得起这份酬劳;如果跑不赢,那无论拿多少都算高薪。我们无法精确测算内在价值。但确实有一个实用,虽被明显低估的替代指标:每股账面价值。这把尺子在多数公司毫无意义。但在伯克希尔,账面价值大致能跟踪商业价值的变动。这是因为,伯克希尔内在价值超出账面价值的那部分差额,每年不会有太大的摆动,尽管大多数年份它都在扩大。长远来看,绝对数额上的差异很可能越拉越大,但按百分比衡量则会相当稳定,因为商业价值/账面价值这一比值中的分子和分母都在增长。

Intrinsic Business Value Charlie and I measure our performance by the rate of gain in Berkshire’s per-share intrinsic business value. If our gain over time outstrips the performance of the S&P 500, we have earned our paychecks. If it doesn’t, we are overpaid at any price. We have no way to pinpoint intrinsic value. But we do have a useful, though considerably understated, proxy for it: per-share book value. This yardstick is meaningless at most companies. At Berkshire, however, book value very roughly tracks business values. That’s because the amount by which Berkshire’s intrinsic value exceeds book value does not swing wildly from year to year, though it increases in most years. Over time, the divergence will likely become ever more substantial in absolute terms, remaining reasonably steady, however, on a percentage basis as both the numerator and denominator of the business-value/book-value equation increase.

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我们一再强调,在股市表现糟糕的年份,伯克希尔的账面价值跑赢标普 500 指数几乎板上钉钉;而在大牛市年份,跑输也几乎同样确凿。真正的考验在于长期表现。去年的年报里有一张表,列出了自 1965 年我们接手伯克希尔以来 42 个五年期(即 1965-69、1966-70,以此类推)的业绩。每个周期里,我们的账面价值都跑赢了标普 500,2007-11 年这个周期也不例外。不过,一旦标普 500 连涨五年(我正在写这封信时,它很可能正朝着这个方向走),这条连胜纪录几乎肯定会断掉。

We’ve regularly emphasized that our book-value performance is almost certain to outpace the S&P 500 in a bad year for the stock market and just as certainly will fall short in a strong up-year. The test is how we do over time. Last year’s annual report included a table laying out results for the 42 five-year periods since we took over at Berkshire in 1965 (i.e., 1965-69, 1966-70, etc.). All showed our book value beating the S&P, and our string held for 2007-11. It will almost certainly snap, though, if the S&P 500 should put together a five-year winning streak (which it may well be on its way to doing as I write this).

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去年我还附了两张表,列出了有助于各位估算每股内在价值的关键量化指标。这里不再重复完整的讨论;你们可以在第 99-100 页找到原文。更新一下那两张表上的数据:2011 年,我们每股投资增长 4%,达到 98,366 美元;保险和投资以外的业务每股税前利润增长 18%,达到 6,990 美元。这两块的增长,查理和我都乐见,但我们的首要目标是做大经营利润。假以时日,我们目前拥有的企业应能提升它们的合计利润,我们也希望再收购几家大型企业,更进一步。我们已有八家子公司,倘若独立,每一家都够格跻身《财富》500 强。这么算来,还差 492 家。我的任务再清楚不过,而我正四处寻觅。

I also included two tables last year that set forth the key quantitative ingredients that will help you estimate our per-share intrinsic value. I won’t repeat the full discussion here; you can find it reproduced on pages 99-100. To update the tables shown there, our per-share investments in 2011 increased 4% to $98,366, and our pre-tax earnings from businesses other than insurance and investments increased 18% to $6,990 per share. Charlie and I like to see gains in both areas, but our primary focus is on building operating earnings. Over time, the businesses we currently own should increase their aggregate earnings, and we hope also to purchase some large operations that will give us a further boost. We now have eight subsidiaries that would each be included in the Fortune 500 were they stand-alone companies. That leaves only 492 to go. My task is clear, and I’m on the prowl.

股票回购

Share Repurchases

去年 9 月,我们宣布伯克希尔将以不高于账面价值 110% 的价格回购股票。我们只在市场上出现了几天——买入 6700 万美元的股票——之后股价就涨过了我们设的上限。尽管如此,鉴于股票回购这件事的普遍重要性,我觉得值得在此稍作展开。查理和我赞成回购,前提是同时满足两个条件:第一,公司有充裕的资金来应付业务的运营和流动性需求;第二,以保守估算,其股价相对于公司内在商业价值有大幅折让。我们见过许多回购未能通过第二条的考验。当然,有时违规——哪怕是严重的——纯属无心之过;许多首席执行官始终坚信自家股票便宜。但在另一些情形里,得出不那么善意的结论似乎也顺理成章。只说回购是为了对冲发股带来的稀释,或仅仅是因为公司有富余现金,这理由并不充分。除非买入价低于内在价值,否则继续持股的股东就会受损。资本配置的第一法则——无论这笔钱是用于收购还是回购——是:在某个价格上聪明的事,换一个价格就是蠢事。(在回购决策中始终强调价格/价值因素的一位首席执行官,是摩根大通的杰米·戴蒙;我建议各位读读他的年度致股东信。)每当伯克希尔股价远低于内在价值,查理和我的心情总是喜忧参半。我们乐意为继续持股的股东挣钱,而要做到这一点,没有比以低于其价值的价格买进一项我们心知至少值 x 的资产——我们自家的股票——更稳妥的了,比如以 0.9x、0.8x 甚至更低的价格买进。(就像我们一位董事说的,这好比桶里叉鱼,不过得先把桶里的水放干,等鱼不再扑腾了。)话虽如此,我们并不乐见以折价兑现退出合伙人,尽管我们这样做也许能让卖出的股东比没有我们出价时拿到略高一点的价格。因此,当我们买入时,我们希望那些退出的合伙人对所售资产的价值一清二楚。在我们设定的账面价值 110% 的上限价位上,回购显然会提高伯克希尔的每股内在价值。而且,我们买得越多、价格越低,继续持股股东获益就越大。因此,若有机会,我们很可能会在 110% 的价格上限或更低价位积极地回购股票。不过各位要明白,我们无意支撑股价,在市场特别疲弱时我们的报价反而会退出。同样,只要我们的现金等价物持有量低于 200 亿美元,我们就不会买入股票。在伯克希尔,无可置疑的财务实力压倒一切。

Last September, we announced that Berkshire would repurchase its shares at a price of up to 110% of book value. We were in the market for only a few days – buying $67 million of stock – before the price advanced beyond our limit. Nonetheless, the general importance of share repurchases suggests I should focus for a bit on the subject. Charlie and I favor repurchases when two conditions are met: first, a company has ample funds to take care of the operational and liquidity needs of its business; second, its stock is selling at a material discount to the company’s intrinsic business value, conservatively calculated. We have witnessed many bouts of repurchasing that failed our second test. Sometimes, of course, infractions – even serious ones – are innocent; many CEOs never stop believing their stock is cheap. In other instances, a less benign conclusion seems warranted. It doesn’t suffice to say that repurchases are being made to offset the dilution from stock issuances or simply because a company has excess cash. Continuing shareholders are hurt unless shares are purchased below intrinsic value. The first law of capital allocation – whether the money is slated for acquisitions or share repurchases – is that what is smart at one price is dumb at another. (One CEO who always stresses the price/value factor in repurchase decisions is Jamie Dimon at J.P. Morgan; I recommend that you read his annual letter.) Charlie and I have mixed emotions when Berkshire shares sell well below intrinsic value. We like making money for continuing shareholders, and there is no surer way to do that than by buying an asset – our own stock – that we know to be worth at least x for less than that – for .9x, .8x or even lower. (As one of our directors says, it’s like shooting fish in a barrel, after the barrel has been drained and the fish have quit flopping.) Nevertheless, we don’t enjoy cashing out partners at a discount, even though our doing so may give the selling shareholders a slightly higher price than they would receive if our bid was absent. When we are buying, therefore, we want those exiting partners to be fully informed about the value of the assets they are selling. At our limit price of 110% of book value, repurchases clearly increase Berkshire’s per-share intrinsic value. And the more and the cheaper we buy, the greater the gain for continuing shareholders. Therefore, if given the opportunity, we will likely repurchase stock aggressively at our price limit or lower. You should know, however, that we have no interest in supporting the stock and that our bids will fade in particularly weak markets. Nor will we buy shares if our cash-equivalent holdings are below $20 billion. At Berkshire, financial strength that is unquestionable takes precedence over all else.

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借着这番关于回购的讨论,我正好谈谈许多投资者对股价变动的非理性反应。当伯克希尔买入一家正在回购股票的公司时,我们盼着两件事:第一,一如常人之盼,我们希望该企业未来的利润在很长一段时间里都能以不错的速度增长;第二,我们同样希望这只股票在未来很长一段时间里在市场上表现落后。由第二点还可引出一条推论:对我们持有的股票“念涨”——即便真有效果——实际上会有害于伯克希尔,而非评论家们通常以为的那样有益。 6

This discussion of repurchases offers me the chance to address the irrational reaction of many investors to changes in stock prices. When Berkshire buys stock in a company that is repurchasing shares, we hope for two events: First, we have the normal hope that earnings of the business will increase at a good clip for a long time to come; and second, we also hope that the stock underperforms in the market for a long time as well. A corollary to this second point: “Talking our book” about a stock we own – were that to be effective – would actually be harmful to Berkshire, not helpful as commentators customarily assume. 6

拿 IBM 来举个例子。凡是商业观察者都知道,两位首席执行官郭士纳和彭明盛把 IBM 从二十年前濒临破产的境地,一路带到今日的显赫地位,干得极为出色。他们在运营上的成就确实非凡,而财务管理同样高明,尤其是近些年公司财务弹性大增之后。说实话,我想不出还有哪家大公司的财务管理比它更好,正是这项本事,实实在在地放大了 IBM 股东所享的收益。公司审慎地运用债务,几乎清一色用现金去做增值型收购,还大手笔回购自家股票。如今,IBM 流通股约 11.6 亿股,我们持有其中约 6390 万股,占比 5.5%。不用说,公司未来五年的盈利状况对我们至关重要。除此之外,这五年里公司很可能会拿出 500 亿美元左右回购股票。今天出道考题:像伯克希尔这样的长期股东,在这段时间里该盼着什么?我不卖关子。我们该盼着 IBM 的股价在这五年里一直萎靡不振。来算笔账。假如这期间 IBM 股价平均是 200 美元,那 500 亿美元能回购 2.5 亿股,之后流通股剩下 9.1 亿股,我们的持股比例会升到约 7%。反过来,若这五年股价平均是 300 美元,IBM 只能回购 1.67 亿股,五年后流通股约 9.9 亿股,我们持股 6.5%。假设 IBM 第五年盈利 200 亿美元,那么在股价较低这个“令人失望”的情形下,我们分到的利润会比股价较高时整整多出 1 亿美元。到往后某个时点,我们的持股价值会比“高价回购”情形下多出大约 15 亿美元。道理很简单:如果你今后要做股票的净买家——无论是直接用自己的钱,还是间接通过持有一家回购股票的公司——那么股价上涨对你不利,股价下挫反而对你有利。可情绪往往把事情搅浑:大多数人,包括那些日后会是净买家的人,一见股价上涨就心安。这类股东活像一个通勤者,仅仅因为油箱里还剩一天的油,就为油价上涨而窃喜。查理和我并不指望能把你们多少人拉到我们这一边——人类行为我们看得够多,深知那是白费力气——但我们确实希望各位了解我们心里的这本账。这里还得坦白一句:我年轻那会儿,看到市场上涨也一样高兴。后来我读了本·格雷厄姆《聪明的投资者》第八章,那一章讲的正是投资者该如何看待股价波动。刹那间我如梦初醒,低价从此成了我的朋友。拿起那本书,是我一生中最幸运的时刻之一。归根结底,我们这笔 IBM 投资成功与否,主要取决于它未来的盈利。但还有一个重要的次要因素,就是公司拿那笔很可能投入回购的巨款,究竟能买回多少股。而万一回购真把 IBM 的流通股压到 6390 万股,我就抛开我出了名的吝啬,给伯克希尔的员工放一天带薪假。

Let’s use IBM as an example. As all business observers know, CEOs Lou Gerstner and Sam Palmisano did a superb job in moving IBM from near-bankruptcy twenty years ago to its prominence today. Their operational accomplishments were truly extraordinary. But their financial management was equally brilliant, particularly in recent years as the company’s financial flexibility improved. Indeed, I can think of no major company that has had better financial management, a skill that has materially increased the gains enjoyed by IBM shareholders. The company has used debt wisely, made value-adding acquisitions almost exclusively for cash and aggressively repurchased its own stock. Today, IBM has 1.16 billion shares outstanding, of which we own about 63.9 million or 5.5%. Naturally, what happens to the company’s earnings over the next five years is of enormous importance to us. Beyond that, the company will likely spend $50 billion or so in those years to repurchase shares. Our quiz for the day: What should a long-term shareholder, such as Berkshire, cheer for during that period? I won’t keep you in suspense. We should wish for IBM’s stock price to languish throughout the five years. Let’s do the math. If IBM’s stock price averages, say, $200 during the period, the company will acquire 250 million shares for its $50 billion. There would consequently be 910 million shares outstanding, and we would own about 7% of the company. If the stock conversely sells for an average of $300 during the five-year period, IBM will acquire only 167 million shares. That would leave about 990 million shares outstanding after five years, of which we would own 6.5%. If IBM were to earn, say, $20 billion in the fifth year, our share of those earnings would be a full $100 million greater under the “disappointing” scenario of a lower stock price than they would have been at the higher price. At some later point our shares would be worth perhaps $1 1⁄ 2 billion more than if the “high-price” repurchase scenario had taken place. The logic is simple: If you are going to be a net buyer of stocks in the future, either directly with your own money or indirectly (through your ownership of a company that is repurchasing shares), you are hurt when stocks rise. You benefit when stocks swoon. Emotions, however, too often complicate the matter: Most people, including those who will be net buyers in the future, take comfort in seeing stock prices advance. These shareholders resemble a commuter who rejoices after the price of gas increases, simply because his tank contains a day’s supply. Charlie and I don’t expect to win many of you over to our way of thinking – we’ve observed enough human behavior to know the futility of that – but we do want you to be aware of our personal calculus. And here a confession is in order: In my early days I, too, rejoiced when the market rose. Then I read Chapter Eight of Ben Graham’s The Intelligent Investor, the chapter dealing with how investors should view fluctuations in stock prices. Immediately the scales fell from my eyes, and low prices became my friend. Picking up that book was one of the luckiest moments in my life. In the end, the success of our IBM investment will be determined primarily by its future earnings. But an important secondary factor will be how many shares the company purchases with the substantial sums it is likely to devote to this activity. And if repurchases ever reduce the IBM shares outstanding to 63.9 million, I will abandon my famed frugality and give Berkshire employees a paid holiday.

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现在,我们来看看公司业务的四大板块。每个板块的资产负债表和利润特征都与其他板块大相径庭,混在一起反而妨碍分析。所以我们把它们当作四门独立的生意来呈现——查理和我正是这么看待它们的。由于我们可能会从你们中的一些人手里回购伯克希尔股票,因此在每个板块里,我们都会谈谈内在价值与账面价值的比较。

Now, let’s examine the four major sectors of our operations. Each has vastly different balance sheet and income characteristics from the others. Lumping them together therefore impedes analysis. So we’ll present them as four separate businesses, which is how Charlie and I view them. Because we may be repurchasing Berkshire shares from some of you, we will offer our thoughts in each section as to how intrinsic value compares to carrying value.

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保险 我们先看保险业务——这是伯克希尔的核心,也是多年来推动我们扩张的引擎。财产意外险(简称“P/C”)公司先收保费,日后再赔款。在某些极端情形下,比如某些工伤事故的理赔,赔付可能拖上几十年。这种“先收钱、后赔付”的模式,让我们手里长期攥着大笔资金——我们称之为“浮存金”——这些钱终究要付给别人。而在那之前,我们可以拿这笔浮存金为伯克希尔投资获利。虽然一张张保单、一桩桩赔案来来去去,但浮存金总额相对保费规模却出奇地稳定。因此,业务一增长,浮存金也随之增长。而我们增长得有多快,看看下面这张表就知道了:

Insurance Let’s look first at insurance, Berkshire’s core operation and the engine that has propelled our expansion over the years. Property-casualty (“P/C”) insurers receive premiums upfront and pay claims later. In extreme cases, such as those arising from certain workers’ compensation accidents, payments can stretch over decades. This collect-now, pay-later model leaves us holding large sums – money we call “float” – that will eventually go to others. Meanwhile, we get to invest this float for Berkshire’s benefit. Though individual policies and claims come and go, the amount of float we hold remains remarkably stable in relation to premium volume. Consequently, as our business grows, so does our float. And how we have grown, as the following table shows: Year

浮存金(单位:百万美元)

Float (in $ millions)

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2011
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2011

$

$

39 237 1,632 27,871 65,832 70,571
39 237 1,632 27,871 65,832 70,571

我们的浮存金已经不太可能在现有水平上大幅增长——就算增长,幅度也极其有限。这主要是因为相对保费规模,我们的浮存金已经大得离谱。我要补充一句:浮存金即便下降,几乎可以肯定过程也会极为平缓,因此不会给我们带来什么异常的资金压力。如果保费收入超过我们的费用与最终损失之和,我们就录得一笔承保利润,这笔利润会叠加到浮存金带来的投资收益之上。这种情况一旦出现,我们等于免费用着这笔资金——更妙的是,持有它还有钱可赚。遗憾的是,所有保险公司都盼着这一美事,于是竞争异常激烈,多数年份激烈到让整个财产意外险行业整体承受可观的承保亏损。举个例子,州立农业保险公司(State Farm)——全美最大的保险公司,同时管理有方——过去 11 年里就有 8 年录得承保亏损。保险业亏钱的门道五花八门,而这个行业在发明新门道上向来足智多谋。正如本报告开头所述,我们如今已连续九年实现承保盈利,期间累计盈利达 170 亿美元。我相信,未来大多数年份——当然绝非所有年份——我们仍会保持承保盈利。果真如此,我们的浮存金就比免费资金还划算:我们的处境,就好比有人把 706 亿美元存到我们这儿,还倒付一笔保管费,然后任由我们拿这笔钱去为自己投资获利。那么,这种诱人的浮存金对内在价值的测算有何影响?计算伯克希尔账面价值时,浮存金会作为负债被全额扣除,就仿佛明天我们就得把它偿清、且无从补充一样。但这样看待浮存金并不正确,它其实应被视为一笔周转基金。如果浮存金既零成本又长期存续,那么这项负债的真实价值就远低于账面上的负债。与这笔被高估的负债部分相抵的,是计入账面价值、作为资产列示的 155 亿美元“商誉”,它归属于我们的保险公司。说白了,这笔商誉代表我们为获取保险业务的浮存金生成能力所付出的价格。然而,商誉的成本与其真实价值并无关系。倘若一家保险业务持续产生巨额承保亏损,那么无论最初花了多少钱,归属于它的商誉都应被视为一文不值。所幸,伯克希尔的情况并非如此。查理和我相信,我们保险商誉的真实经济价值——也就是我们为买到同等质量的浮存金所愿付出的价格——远远高于它的历史账面值。浮存金的价值,是我们相信伯克希尔内在商业价值大幅超过账面价值的一个理由,而且是一个天大的理由。请容我再强调一遍:零成本浮存金绝非整个财产意外险行业可以指望的结果——我们认为,保险界并不存在多少“伯克希尔品质”的浮存金。多数年份,包括 2011 年,行业的保费都不足以覆盖理赔加费用。因此,

It’s unlikely that our float will grow much – if at all – from its current level. That’s mainly because we already have an outsized amount relative to our premium volume. Were there to be a decline in float, I will add, it would almost certainly be very gradual and therefore impose no unusual demand for funds on us. If our premiums exceed the total of our expenses and eventual losses, we register an underwriting profit that adds to the investment income our float produces. When such a profit occurs, we enjoy the use of free money – and, better yet, get paid for holding it. Unfortunately, the wish of all insurers to achieve this happy result creates intense competition, so vigorous in most years that it causes the P/C industry as a whole to operate at a significant underwriting loss. For example, State Farm, by far the country’s largest insurer and a well-managed company besides, has incurred an underwriting loss in eight of the last eleven years. There are a lot of ways to lose money in insurance, and the industry is resourceful in creating new ones. As noted in the first section of this report, we have now operated at an underwriting profit for nine consecutive years, our gain for the period having totaled $17 billion. I believe it likely that we will continue to underwrite profitably in most – though certainly not all – future years. If we accomplish that, our float will be better than cost-free. We will profit just as we would if some party deposited $70.6 billion with us, paid us a fee for holding its money and then let us invest its funds for our own benefit. So how does this attractive float affect intrinsic value calculations? Our float is deducted in full as a liability in calculating Berkshire’s book value, just as if we had to pay it out tomorrow and were unable to replenish it. But that’s an incorrect way to view float, which should instead be viewed as a revolving fund. If float is both costless and long-enduring, the true value of this liability is far lower than the accounting liability. Partially offsetting this overstated liability is $15.5 billion of “goodwill” attributable to our insurance companies that is included in book value as an asset. In effect, this goodwill represents the price we paid for the float-generating capabilities of our insurance operations. The cost of the goodwill, however, has no bearing on its true value. If an insurance business produces large and sustained underwriting losses, any goodwill asset attributable to it should be deemed valueless, whatever its original cost. Fortunately, that’s not the case at Berkshire. Charlie and I believe the true economic value of our insurance goodwill – what we would pay to purchase float of similar quality – to be far in excess of its historic carrying value. The value of our float is one reason – a huge reason – why we believe Berkshire’s intrinsic business value substantially exceeds book value. Let me emphasize once again that cost-free float is not an outcome to be expected for the P/C industry as a whole: We don’t think there is much “Berkshire-quality” float existing in the insurance world. In most years, including 2011, the industry’s premiums have been inadequate to cover claims plus expenses. Consequently, the 8

过去几十年里,整个保险业在有形净资产上的回报率一直远低于美国企业的平均水平,这种可悲的表现几乎肯定会延续下去。伯克希尔之所以能有如此出色的经济效益,唯一的原因是我们有一批杰出的经理人,在经营着几家非凡的保险业务。下面容我逐一介绍几家主要的业务单元。

industry’s overall return on tangible equity has for many decades fallen far short of the average return realized by American industry, a sorry performance almost certain to continue. Berkshire’s outstanding economics exist only because we have some terrific managers running some extraordinary insurance operations. Let me tell you about the major units.

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按浮存金规模排在第一的,是由阿吉特·贾恩掌管的伯克希尔·哈撒韦再保险集团。阿吉特承保的,是别人既没意愿、也没本钱去接的风险。他的团队把承保能力、速度、决断力,以及最要紧的——头脑,糅合在一起,这在保险业里独一无二。可他从不让伯克希尔去冒与自身实力不相称的风险。事实上,在这方面我们比多数大型保险公司都保守得多。打个比方,假如保险业因某场超级灾难蒙受 2500 亿美元损失——这差不多是它有史以来最大损失的三倍——伯克希尔整体这一年大概率仍能录得适度利润,因为我们的盈利来源众多。与此同时,其他所有大型保险和再保险公司都会深陷亏损,有些还会濒临破产。阿吉特从 1985 年白手起家,硬是造出一家浮存金高达 340 亿美元、承保利润又相当可观的保险企业,这份成就,别家保险公司的首席执行官谁都望尘莫及。凭这些战绩,他给伯克希尔增添了好几百亿美元的价值。查理情愿拿我去换第二个阿吉特。只可惜,天下再无第二个。

First by float size is the Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group, run by Ajit Jain. Ajit insures risks that no one else has the desire or the capital to take on. His operation combines capacity, speed, decisiveness and, most importantly, brains in a manner that is unique in the insurance business. Yet he never exposes Berkshire to risks that are inappropriate in relation to our resources. Indeed, we are far more conservative in that respect than most large insurers. For example, if the insurance industry should experience a $250 billion loss from some mega-catastrophe – a loss about triple anything it has ever faced – Berkshire as a whole would likely record a moderate profit for the year because of its many streams of earnings. Concurrently, all other major insurers and reinsurers would be far in the red, and some would face insolvency. From a standing start in 1985, Ajit has created an insurance business with float of $34 billion and significant underwriting profits, a feat that no CEO of any other insurer has come close to matching. By these accomplishments, he has added a great many billions of dollars to the value of Berkshire. Charlie would gladly trade me for a second Ajit. Alas, there is none.

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我们还有一家保险重镇,那就是由泰德·蒙特罗斯执掌的通用再保险。归根结底,一家稳健的保险业务必须恪守四条铁律:一,摸清所有可能让保单蒙受损失的潜在风险敞口;二,保守评估任一风险敞口真正引发损失的概率,以及一旦发生可能造成的成本;三,将保费设定在一个水平,使它在覆盖预期损失成本和运营费用之后,平均而言仍能盈利;四,如果拿不到合理保费,就甘愿转身离场。许多保险公司过得了前三关,却栽在第四关上。他们就是无法拒绝那些竞争对手正抢着承保的生意。“别人都在做,那我们也必须做”这句老话,放到任何行业都是祸根,但在保险业为害最烈。说真的,一名优秀的核保人需要有一种独立思考的心性,就像那位开车回家时接到妻子电话的老先生。“阿尔伯特,小心,”妻子提醒他,“我刚听广播说,高速公路上有辆车在逆行。”“梅布尔,他们知道的还不到一半,”阿尔伯特答道,“哪是一辆车逆行,有好几百辆呢。”泰德把四条保险戒律守得一丝不苟,业绩就是明证。在他的领导下,通用再保险的巨额浮存金一直好过零成本,我们预计,平均而言这种局面仍会延续下去。收购通用再保险后的头几年,它曾是我们的一大心病。如今,它已成了一件珍宝。

We have another insurance powerhouse in General Re, managed by Tad Montross. At bottom, a sound insurance operation needs to adhere to four disciplines. It must (1) understand all exposures that might cause a policy to incur losses; (2) conservatively evaluate the likelihood of any exposure actually causing a loss and the probable cost if it does; (3) set a premium that will deliver a profit, on average, after both prospective loss costs and operating expenses are covered; and (4) be willing to walk away if the appropriate premium can’t be obtained. Many insurers pass the first three tests and flunk the fourth. They simply can’t turn their back on business that their competitors are eagerly writing. That old line, “The other guy is doing it so we must as well,” spells trouble in any business, but in none more so than insurance. Indeed, a good underwriter needs an independent mindset akin to that of the senior citizen who received a call from his wife while driving home. “Albert, be careful,” she warned, “I just heard on the radio that there’s a car going the wrong way down the Interstate.” “Mabel, they don’t know the half of it,” replied Albert, “It’s not just one car, there are hundreds of them.” Tad has observed all four of the insurance commandments, and it shows in his results. General Re’s huge float has been better than cost-free under his leadership, and we expect that, on average, it will continue to be. In the first few years after we acquired it, General Re was a major headache. Now it’s a treasure.

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最后要说的,是我 61 年前第一次接触的 GEICO。GEICO 由托尼·奈斯利执掌,他 18 岁加入公司,到 2011 年已服务了整整 50 年。GEICO 令人艳羡的记录,源自托尼对一套卓越且几乎无从复制的商业模式的精妙执行。在托尼担任 CEO 的 18 年间,我们的市场份额从 2.0% 增长到 9.3%。如果市场份额像他接手前十几年那样停滞不前,我们 2011 年的保费收入就会只有 33 亿美元,而不是实际达成的 154 亿美元。托尼和他的同事们创造的这份额外价值,是伯克希尔内在价值超出账面价值的主要来源。汽车保险市场仍有超过 90% 的份额等着 GEICO 去争取。不要赌托尼不会在未来年复一年地啃下其中一大块。我们的低成本让我们能定低价,如今每天都有更多美国人发现,那只壁虎催促他们上 GEICO.com 询价,其实是在帮他们的忙。(我们的这只小蜥蜴还有个讨人喜欢的特质:别家保险公司花大价钱请真人代言,我们这个小家伙可没有经纪人。)

Finally, there is GEICO, the insurer on which I cut my teeth 61 years ago. GEICO is run by Tony Nicely, who joined the company at 18 and completed 50 years of service in 2011. GEICO’s much-envied record comes from Tony’s brilliant execution of a superb and almostimpossible-to-replicate business model. During Tony’s 18-year tenure as CEO, our market share has grown from 2.0% to 9.3%. If it had instead remained static – as it had for more than a decade before he took over – our premium volume would now be $3.3 billion rather than the $15.4 billion we attained in 2011. The extra value created by Tony and his associates is a major element in Berkshire’s excess of intrinsic value over book value. There is still more than 90% of the auto-insurance market left for GEICO to rake in. Don’t bet against Tony acquiring chunks of it year after year in the future. Our low costs permit low prices, and every day more Americans discover that the Gecko is doing them a favor when he urges them to visit GEICO.com for a quote. (Our lizard has another endearing quality: Unlike human spokesmen or spokeswomen who expensively represent other insurance companies, our little fellow has no agent.)

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除了这三大保险业务,我们还拥有一批规模较小的公司,其中多数在保险行业的偏门角落耕耘。整体而言,它们的业绩持续盈利,为我们提供的浮存金也相当可观。查理和我很珍视这些公司和它们的经理人。 9

In addition to our three major insurance operations, we own a group of smaller companies, most of them plying their trade in odd corners of the insurance world. In aggregate, their results have consistently been profitable and the float they provide us is substantial. Charlie and I treasure these companies and their managers. 9

年末,我们收购了普林斯顿保险公司(Princeton Insurance),这是一家承保医疗事故险的新泽西公司。这一补强型交易,为蒂姆·凯内西(Tim Kenesey)拓展了管理疆域,他是我们总部位于印第安纳州的医疗事故险公司“医疗保护”(Medical Protective)的明星 CEO。普林斯顿带来了超过 6 亿美元的浮存金,该金额已包含在下表中。以下是我们财产-意外险与人寿保险四大板块的全部记录:

At yearend, we acquired Princeton Insurance, a New Jersey writer of medical malpractice policies. This bolt-on transaction expands the managerial domain of Tim Kenesey, the star CEO of Medical Protective, our Indiana-based med-mal insurer. Princeton brings with it more than $600 million of float, an amount that is included in the following table. Here is the record of all four segments of our property-casualty and life insurance businesses:

保险业务

Insurance Operations

承保利润 年末浮存金(单位:百万美元) 2011 2010 2011 2010

Underwriting Profit Yearend Float (in millions) 2011 2010 2011 2010

承保利润(百万)年末浮动
保险运营2011201020112010
BH再保险$(714)$ 176$33,728$30,370
通用再保险公司14445219,71420,049
GEICO5761,11711,16910,272
其他主要业务2422685,9605,141
$ 248$2,013$70,571$65,832
Underwriting Profit(in millions)Yearend Float
Insurance Operations2011201020112010
BH Reinsurance$(714)$ 176$33,728$30,370
General Re14445219,71420,049
GEICO5761,11711,16910,272
Other Primary2422685,9605,141
$ 248$2,013$70,571$65,832

在大型保险机构中,伯克希尔在我看来堪称全球最佳。

Among large insurance operations, Berkshire’s impresses me as the best in the world.

受监管的资本密集型业务

Regulated, Capital-Intensive Businesses

我们拥有两家超大型企业——伯灵顿北方圣达菲铁路公司(BNSF)和中美能源公司——它们具有一些重要的共性,使其与我们旗下众多其他业务截然不同。因此,我们在这封信中为它们专设一个板块,并在 GAAP 资产负债表和利润表中将其财务数据合并列示。这两家公司的一个关键特征是,它们对使用寿命极长的受监管资产投下了巨额资本,这些投入部分由大量长期债务提供资金,且这些债务并不由伯克希尔提供担保。它们不需要我们的信用背书:即便在极为恶劣的商业环境下,这两家企业的盈利能力也足以充裕地覆盖其利息支出。例如,在 2011 年经济不那么强劲的大环境下,BNSF 的利息保障倍数达到了 9.5 倍。同时,在中美能源,有两个关键因素确保了它在任何情况下都具备偿债能力:一是我们独家提供一项不可或缺的服务所固有的收益稳定性,二是收益来源的多元化,使其免受某个单一监管机构行动的影响。以吨英里计算,铁路承担着美国 42% 的城际货运,而 BNSF 的运量超过任何一家铁路公司——约占全行业总量的 37%。稍加计算便能得出,全美所有城际货运吨英里中,约有 15% 是由 BNSF 承运的。把铁路称作美国经济的循环系统,绝非夸张。你们的铁路正是其中最粗的主动脉。所有这些,都意味着我们肩负着巨大的责任。我们必须毫厘不差地维护和改良我们 23,000 英里的铁路,连同 13,000 座桥梁、80 条隧道、6,900 台机车和 78,600 节货车车厢。这份工作既要求我们在任何经济情形下都具备充足的财务实力,也要求我们拥有人才,能够迅速有效地应对大自然的变故,就像 BNSF 去年夏天所奋力抗衡的大面积洪水那样。为了履行其社会责任,BNSF 的资本投入常年远超其折旧费用,2011 年超出部分达到 18 亿美元。美国另外三大铁路公司也在进行类似的支出。尽管许多人痛陈我国基础设施投入不足,但这一批评无法扣到铁路行业头上。铁路行业正将大量资金——来自私营部门的资金——投入到为未来提供更好、更广泛服务所需的投资项目中去。如果铁路公司不进行这些巨额支出,我国由公共财政支撑的公路系统将面临比今天更为严重的拥堵和养护难题。像 BNSF 这样的大规模投资,如果无法从所投入的增量资金中获取合理的回报,那便是愚蠢之举。但我相信它能够做到,因为它交付了实实在在的价值。许多年前,本·富兰克林告诫说:“照管好你的店铺,你的店铺自会照管好你。”把这句话引申到我们受监管的业务上,他今天或许会说:“照管好你的客户,那么监管者——你客户的代表——自会照管好你。”一方的善意行为会换来另一方的善意回报。 10

We have two very large businesses, BNSF and MidAmerican Energy, that have important common characteristics distinguishing them from our many other businesses. Consequently, we assign them their own sector in this letter and also split out their combined financial statistics in our GAAP balance sheet and income statement. A key characteristic of both companies is the huge investment they have in very long-lived, regulated assets, with these partially funded by large amounts of long-term debt that is not guaranteed by Berkshire. Our credit is not needed: Both businesses have earning power that even under terrible business conditions amply covers their interest requirements. In a less than robust economy during 2011, for example, BNSF’s interest coverage was 9.5x. At MidAmerican, meanwhile, two key factors ensure its ability to service debt under all circumstances: The stability of earnings that is inherent in our exclusively offering an essential service and a diversity of earnings streams, which shield it from the actions of any single regulatory body. Measured by ton-miles, rail moves 42% of America’s inter-city freight, and BNSF moves more than any other railroad – about 37% of the industry total. A little math will tell you that about 15% of all inter-city ton-miles of freight in the U.S. is transported by BNSF. It is no exaggeration to characterize railroads as the circulatory system of our economy. Your railroad is the largest artery. All of this places a huge responsibility on us. We must, without fail, maintain and improve our 23,000 miles of track along with 13,000 bridges, 80 tunnels, 6,900 locomotives and 78,600 freight cars. This job requires us to have ample financial resources under all economic scenarios and to have the human talent that can instantly and effectively deal with the vicissitudes of nature, such as the widespread flooding BNSF labored under last summer. To fulfill its societal obligation, BNSF regularly invests far more than its depreciation charge, with the excess amounting to $1.8 billion in 2011. The three other major U.S. railroads are making similar outlays. Though many people decry our country’s inadequate infrastructure spending, that criticism cannot be levied against the railroad industry. It is pouring money – funds from the private sector – into the investment projects needed to provide better and more extensive service in the future. If railroads were not making these huge expenditures, our country’s publicly-financed highway system would face even greater congestion and maintenance problems than exist today. Massive investments of the sort that BNSF is making would be foolish if it could not earn appropriate returns on the incremental sums it commits. But I am confident it will do so because of the value it delivers. Many years ago Ben Franklin counseled, “Keep thy shop, and thy shop will keep thee.” Translating this to our regulated businesses, he might today say, “Take care of your customer, and the regulator – your customer’s representative – will take care of you.” Good behavior by each party begets good behavior in return. 10

在中美能源,我们同样参与着一份类似的“社会契约”。外界指望我们不断加码投入,以满足客户日后的需求。只要我们运营得可靠又高效,就知道这些投资能换来公平的回报。中美能源由伯克希尔持股 89.8%,为全美 250 万客户供电,是爱荷华、犹他和怀俄明三州最大的电力供应商,在另外六个州也是重要的供电方。我们的管道输送着全美 8% 的天然气。显然,每天都有数以百万计的美国人仰赖我们,而他们从未失望。2002 年中美能源收购北天然气管道时,该公司作为管道运营商的表现,被业内权威机构评为垫底,43 家里排第 43 位。而在最新一期报告里,北天然气跃居第二,排在第一的是我们的另一条管道——克恩河。电力业务上,中美能源同样战绩斐然。在最近一次客户满意度调查中,中美能源旗下的美国公用事业公司,在受访的 60 家公用事业集团里名列第二。可就在几年前,中美能源刚收购这些资产时,情形还远非如此。到 2012 年底,中美能源的风电装机将达到 3316 兆瓦,远超美国任何一家受监管的电力公司。我们在风电上已投入或承诺的总额高达 60 亿美元,数目惊人。我们之所以能做这么大的投资,是因为中美能源把全部盈利都留存下来,不像其他电力公司那样通常把挣到的钱大半派发出去。此外,去年底我们又接手了两个太阳能项目——一个在加州,由我们全资持有;另一个在亚利桑那州,我们持股 49%——建设成本约 30 亿美元。几乎可以肯定,日后还会有更多风电和太阳能项目跟上。写到这里,各位大概看得出来,马特·罗斯在 BNSF、格雷格·阿贝尔在中美能源为社会所做的一切,让我引以为豪。他们为伯克希尔股东所做的一切,同样让我既自豪又感激。

At MidAmerican, we participate in a similar “social compact.” We are expected to put up ever-increasing sums to satisfy the future needs of our customers. If we meanwhile operate reliably and efficiently, we know that we will obtain a fair return on these investments. MidAmerican, 89.8% owned by Berkshire, supplies 2.5 million customers in the U.S. with electricity, operating as the largest supplier in Iowa, Utah and Wyoming and as an important provider in six other states as well. Our pipelines transport 8% of the country’s natural gas. Obviously, many millions of Americans depend on us every day. They haven’t been disappointed. When MidAmerican purchased Northern Natural Gas pipeline in 2002, that company’s performance as a pipeline was rated dead last, 43 out of 43, by the leading authority in the field. In the most recent report, Northern Natural was ranked second. The top spot was held by our other pipeline, Kern River. In its electric business, MidAmerican has a comparable record. In the most recent survey of customer satisfaction, MidAmerican’s U.S. utilities ranked second among 60 utility groups surveyed. The story was far different not many years back when MidAmerican acquired these properties. MidAmerican will have 3,316 megawatts of wind generation in operation by the end of 2012, far more than any other regulated electric utility in the country. The total amount that we have invested or committed to wind is a staggering $6 billion. We can make this sort of investment because MidAmerican retains all of its earnings, unlike other utilities that generally pay out most of what they earn. In addition, late last year we took on two solar projects – one 100%-owned in California and the other 49%-owned in Arizona – that will cost about $3 billion to construct. Many more wind and solar projects will almost certainly follow. As you can tell by now, I am proud of what has been accomplished for our society by Matt Rose at BNSF and by Greg Abel at MidAmerican. I am also both proud and grateful for what they have accomplished for

以下为相关数据:

Berkshire shareholders. Below are the relevant figures:

MidAmerican

MidAmerican

收益(单位:百万美元) 2011 2010

Earnings (in millions) 2011 2010

如您现在所知,我为Matt Rose在BNSF和Greg Abel在MidAmerican为社会所取得的成就感到自豪。我也为他们对伯克希尔股东所取得的成就感到自豪和感激。以下是相关数据:收益(百万美元)
2011 2010
英国公用事业$ 469 $ 333
爱荷华公用事业279 279
西部公用事业771 783
管道388 378
家居服务39 42
其他(净额)36 47
公司利息及税前经营收益1,982 1,862
除伯克希尔以外的利息(323) (323)
伯克希尔次级债务利息(13) (30)
所得税(315) (271)
净利润$1,331 $1,238
归属于伯克希尔的收益*$1,204 $1,131
As you can tell by now, I am proud of what has been accomplished for our society by Matt Rose at BNSF and by Greg Abel at MidAmerican. I am also both proud and grateful for what they have accomplished for Berkshire shareholders. Below are the relevant figures: MidAmericanEarnings (in millions)
2011 2010
U.K. utilities$ 469 $ 333
Iowa utility279 279
Western utilities771 783
Pipelines388 378
HomeServices39 42
Other (net)36 47
Operating earnings before corporate interest and taxes1,982 1,862
Interest, other than to Berkshire(323) (323)
Interest on Berkshire junior debt(13) (30)
Income tax(315) (271)
Net earnings$1,331 $1,238
Earnings applicable to Berkshire*$1,204 $1,131
$1,204
$1,131
$1,204
$1,131

*含伯克希尔赚取的利息(扣除相关所得税后),2011 年为 8 美元,2010 年为 19 美元。

*Includes interest earned by Berkshire (net of related income taxes) of $8 in 2011 and $19 in 2010.

BNSF

BNSF

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(截至 2010 年 2 月 12 日采用历史成本法核算,此后采用购买法核算)

收入 ……

经营利润 ……

利息(净额) ……

税前利润 ……

净利润 ……

(Historical accounting through 2/12/10; purchase accounting subsequently) Revenues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Operating earnings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Interest (Net) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Pre-Tax earnings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Net earnings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

(单位:百万美元) 2011 2010 19,548 5,310 560 4,741 2,972

(in millions) 2011 2010 $19,548 5,310 560 4,741 2,972

$16,850 4,495 507 3,988 2,459
$16,850 4,495 507 3,988 2,459

在我们资产负债表所列的账面价值中,BNSF 和中美能源合计包含总计 200 亿美元的巨额商誉。但对这两家公司,查理和我都认为其当前的内在价值远高于账面价值。11

In the book value recorded on our balance sheet, BNSF and MidAmerican carry substantial goodwill components totaling $20 billion. In each instance, however, Charlie and I believe current intrinsic value is far greater than book value. 11

制造业、服务业与零售业务 伯克希尔在这一领域的经营遍布整个产业链。不过,我们先来看整个板块的汇总资产负债表和利润表。资产负债表 2011 年 12 月 31 日(单位:百万美元) 资产

Manufacturing, Service and Retailing Operations Our activities in this part of Berkshire cover the waterfront. Let’s look, though, at a summary balance sheet and earnings statement for the entire group. Balance Sheet 12/31/11 (in millions) Assets

负债与权益 ……

Liabilities and Equity

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现金及现金等价物 ……应收账款及应收票据 ……

Cash and equivalents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Accounts and notes receivable . . . . . . . . . . .

$ 4,241 6,584
$ 4,241 6,584

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应付票据 ……其他流动负债 ……

Notes payable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other current liabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . .

$ 1,611 15,124
$ 1,611 15,124

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存货 ……

其他流动资产 ……

Inventory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other current assets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

8,975 631
8,975 631

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流动负债合计 ……

Total current liabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . .

16,735
16,735

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流动资产合计 ……

Total current assets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

20,431
20,431

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商誉及其他无形资产 ……固定资产 ……其他资产 ……

Goodwill and other intangibles . . . . . . . . . . . Fixed assets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other assets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

24,755 17,866 3,661
24,755 17,866 3,661

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递延所得税

长期债务及其他负债

非控制性权益

归属于伯克希尔股东的权益

Deferred taxes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Term debt and other liabilities . . . . . . . Non-controlling interests . . . . . . . . . . . . Berkshire equity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4,661 6,214 2,410 36,693
$66,713
$66,713
4,661 6,214 2,410 36,693
$66,713
$66,713

利润表(单位:百万美元) 2011**

Earnings Statement (in millions) 2011**

2010
2009
2010
2009
Earnings Statement (in millions) Revenues Operating expenses (including depreciation of $1,431 in 2011,2011** $72,4062010 $66,6102009 $61,665
$1,362 2010年及 $1,422 2009年)67,23962,22559,509
利息费用13011198
税前收益5,037*4,274*2,058*
所得税和非控制性权益1,9981,812945
净利润$ 3,039$ 2,462$ 1,113
Earnings Statement (in millions) Revenues Operating expenses (including depreciation of $1,431 in 2011,2011** $72,4062010 $66,6102009 $61,665
$1,362 in 2010 and $1,422 in 2009)67,23962,22559,509
Interest expense13011198
Pre-tax earnings5,037*4,274*2,058*
Income taxes and non-controlling interests1,9981,812945
Net earnings$ 3,039$ 2,462$ 1,113
$ 3,039
$ 2,462
$ 1,113
$ 3,039
$ 2,462
$ 1,113

*不含购买会计调整。**含路博润 9 月 16 日起的盈利。这个板块的公司,卖的东西从棒棒糖到喷气式飞机应有尽有。其中一些企业的经济效益极佳,若以无杠杆有形资产净值的税后回报率来衡量,从 25% 到 100% 以上不等;另一些的回报也不错,在 12% 到 20% 之间。不过,有那么几家回报率相当低,这要归咎于我在资本配置上犯的几个严重错误。这些错误之所以发生,是因为我看走了眼——要么误判了所购企业的竞争实力,要么误判了它所处行业的未来经济前景。做收购时,我总想着往后看十年、二十年,可有时我的眼力实在不济。查理的眼力就好得多;对我几笔昏了头的收购,他至多投了“弃权”票,绝不赞成。伯克希尔的新股东也许纳闷,我们为何还攥着我犯下的这些错误不放。毕竟,它们的盈利对伯克希尔的估值永远无足轻重,而问题公司要占用的管理精力反倒比优等生更多。任何管理顾问或华尔街谋士,看到我们这几家落后者,都会说一句“扔掉它们”。可这种事不会发生。29 年来,我们一直在这些报告里定期阐述伯克希尔的经济原则(第 93-98 页),其中第 11 条讲的正是我们通常不愿脱手表现欠佳的企业(这类企业多数是拖在行业因素上,而非管理失职)。我们的做法一点都不“物竞天择”,你们中许多人或许并不认同,我也理解各位的立场。然而,对我们所收购企业的卖方,我们已经许下、并将继续许下这样一个承诺:无论顺境逆境,都会把这些企业留在手里。到目前为止,履行这一承诺的金钱代价并不高,而且很可能被它在潜在卖家中攒下的好感所抵消——那些卖家正为自己珍视的企业和忠诚的老伙计们,寻一个可靠的永久归宿。这些主人心里清楚,从我们这儿得到的东西,别人给不了,而且我们的承诺,往后几十年都算数。

*Does not include purchase-accounting adjustments. **Includes earnings of Lubrizol from September 16. This group of companies sells products ranging from lollipops to jet airplanes. Some of the businesses enjoy terrific economics, measured by earnings on unleveraged net tangible assets that run from 25% after-tax to more than 100%. Others produce good returns in the area of 12-20%. A few, however, have very poor returns, a result of some serious mistakes I made in my job of capital allocation. These errors came about because I misjudged either the competitive strength of the business being purchased or the future economics of the industry in which it operated. I try to look out ten or twenty years when making an acquisition, but sometimes my eyesight has been poor. Charlie’s has been better; he voted no more than “present” on several of my errant purchases. Berkshire’s newer shareholders may be puzzled over our decision to hold on to my mistakes. After all, their earnings can never be consequential to Berkshire’s valuation, and problem companies require more managerial time than winners. Any management consultant or Wall Street advisor would look at our laggards and say “dump them.” That won’t happen. For 29 years, we have regularly laid out Berkshire’s economic principles in these reports (pages 93-98) and Number 11 describes our general reluctance to sell poor performers (which, in most cases, lag because of industry factors rather than managerial shortcomings). Our approach is far from Darwinian, and many of you may disapprove of it. I can understand your position. However, we have made – and continue to make – a commitment to the sellers of businesses we buy that we will retain those businesses through thick and thin. So far, the dollar cost of that commitment has not been substantial and may well be offset by the goodwill it builds among prospective sellers looking for the right permanent home for their treasured business and loyal associates. These owners know that what they get with us can’t be delivered by others and that our commitments will be good for many decades to come.

12
12

不过请各位明白,查理和我既不是受虐狂,也不是盲目乐观派。倘若第 11 条规则里列出的两种情形有一样冒了头——企业长期看很可能变成现金无底洞,或者劳资纠纷积重难返——我们会迅速而果断地下手。这样的事,在我们 47 年的历史里只发生过寥寥两三回,而我们目前手里的企业,没有一家糟到需要考虑脱手的地步。

Please understand, however, that Charlie and I are neither masochists nor Pollyannas. If either of the failings we set forth in Rule 11 is present – if the business will likely be a cash drain over the longer term, or if labor strife is endemic – we will take prompt and decisive action. Such a situation has happened only a couple of times in our 47-year history, and none of the businesses we now own is in straits requiring us to consider disposing of it.

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自 2009 年年中以来,美国经济那份稳健而显著的回暖,从本节开头列出的盈利数字里就能看得一清二楚。这份汇总涵盖了我们旗下 54 家公司,可其中一家玛蒙,自身就在 11 个各不相同的行业里握着 140 项业务。一言以蔽之,你看伯克希尔,看的其实是整个美国企业界的横切面。所以,让我们再往深里挖一挖,好把过去几年的来龙去脉看得更透彻。本节里那四家住房相关公司(这组不含克莱顿,它归在“金融与金融产品”项下),2009、2010、2011 三年的税前利润分别为 2.27 亿、3.62 亿和 3.59 亿美元。把这几笔从合并报表中减掉,你就会看到,我们那一大批各行各业的非住房业务,2009 年挣了 18.31 亿美元,2010 年挣了 39.12 亿美元,2011 年挣了 46.78 亿美元。2011 年的盈利里,约有 2.91 亿美元来自路博润的并入。剩下那 43.87 亿美元的构成,恰恰映照出美国大片地区从 2008 年金融恐慌的重创中一路走出的过程。尽管住房相关业务仍躺在急诊室里,但其余多数业务已经痊愈出院,健康如初。

The steady and substantial comeback in the U.S. economy since mid-2009 is clear from the earnings shown at the front of this section. This compilation includes 54 of our companies. But one of these, Marmon, is itself the owner of 140 operations in eleven distinct business sectors. In short, when you look at Berkshire, you are looking across corporate America. So let’s dig a little deeper to gain a greater insight into what has happened in the last few years. The four housing-related companies in this section (a group that excludes Clayton, which is carried under Finance and Financial Products) had aggregate pre-tax earnings of $227 million in 2009, $362 million in 2010 and $359 million in 2011. If you subtract these earnings from those in the combined statement, you will see that our multiple and diverse non-housing operations earned $1,831 million in 2009, $3,912 million in 2010 and $4,678 million in 2011. About $291 million of the 2011 earnings came from the Lubrizol acquisition. The profile of the remaining 2011 earnings – $4,387 million – illustrates the comeback of much of America from the devastation wrought by the 2008 financial panic. Though housing-related businesses remain in the emergency room, most other businesses have left the hospital with their health fully restored.

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去年,我们几乎所有的经理人都交出了出色的答卷,这里头也包括那些执掌住房相关业务、因而正顶着飓风级逆风苦撑的经理们。下面举几个例子:

Almost all of our managers delivered outstanding performances last year, among them those managers who run housing-related businesses and were therefore fighting hurricane-force headwinds. Here are a few examples: •

• 维克·曼奇内利再次让 CTB(我们的农业设备业务)刷新了纪录。我们 2002 年以 1.39 亿美元收购 CTB,此后它已向伯克希尔分回 1.8 亿美元,去年税前盈利 1.24 亿美元,手头还握着 1.09 亿美元现金。这些年,维克做了一连串补强收购,其中一笔颇有分量的,是在年终后才签下的。

Vic Mancinelli again set a record at CTB, our agricultural equipment operation. We purchased CTB in 2002 for $139 million. It has subsequently distributed $180 million to Berkshire, last year earned $124 million pre-tax and has $109 million in cash. Vic has made a number of bolt-on acquisitions over the years, including a meaningful one he signed up after yearend.

TTI,我们的电子元件分销商,销售额增至创纪录的 21 亿美元,比 2010 年增长 12.4%。盈利也创下新高,比我们收购它的那一年(2007 年)增长了 127%。2011 年,TTI 的表现远远甩开了同领域那些大型上市公司。这不足为奇:多年来,保罗·安德鲁斯和他的团队一直压着它们打。查理和我很高兴,保罗在 2012 年初谈成了一笔大额补强收购,我们盼着往后还有更多。

TTI, our electric components distributor, increased its sales to a record $2.1 billion, up 12.4% from 2010. Earnings also hit a record, up 127% from 2007, the year in which we purchased the business. In 2011, TTI performed far better than the large publicly-traded companies in its field. That’s no surprise: Paul Andrews and his associates have been besting them for years. Charlie and I are delighted that Paul negotiated a large bolt-on acquisition early in 2012. We hope more follow.

伊斯卡,我们持股 80% 的切削工具业务,仍在不断给我们惊喜。它的销售增速和整体表现在业内独树一帜。伊斯卡的几位经理——艾坦·韦特海默、雅各布·哈帕兹和丹尼·戈德曼——既是高明的战略家,也是老练的经营者。2008 年 11 月,正当全球经济一头栽下悬崖,他们却挺身而出,买下了日本一流的切削工具制造商 Tungaloy。去年春天海啸袭击东京以北时,Tungaloy 遭受重创。可如今你根本看不出来:Tungaloy 在 2011 年照样刷新了销售纪录。11 月我去了磐城工厂,Tungaloy 管理层连同全体员工的那股敬业与热忱,令我深受触动。他们是一支了不起的队伍,值得你们的敬佩与感谢。

Iscar, our 80%-owned cutting-tools operation, continues to amaze us. Its sales growth and overall performance are unique in its industry. Iscar’s managers – Eitan Wertheimer, Jacob Harpaz and Danny Goldman – are brilliant strategists and operators. When the economic world was cratering in November 2008, they stepped up to buy Tungaloy, a leading Japanese cutting-tool manufacturer. Tungaloy suffered significant damage when the tsunami hit north of Tokyo last spring. But you wouldn’t know that now: Tungaloy went on to set a sales record in 2011. I visited the Iwaki plant in November and was inspired by the dedication and enthusiasm of Tungaloy’s management, as well as its staff. They are a wonderful group and deserve your admiration and thanks.

麦克莱恩,我们那家由格雷迪·罗西耶执掌的大型分销公司,2011 年新添了几家重要客户,税前盈利创下 3.7 亿美元的纪录。自 2003 年以 15 亿美元收购以来,这家公司累计实现税前盈利 24 亿美元,还因为所分销的零售商品(糖果、口香糖、香烟等)涨价,把后进先出(LIFO)准备金追加了 2.3 亿美元。格雷迪操持着一台无与伦比的物流机器。麦克莱恩的补强收购值得留意,尤其是在我们新涉足的葡萄酒和烈酒分销这一块。

McLane, our huge distribution company that is run by Grady Rosier, added important new customers in 2011 and set a pre-tax earnings record of $370 million. Since its purchase in 2003 for $1.5 billion, the company has had pre-tax earnings of $2.4 billion and also increased its LIFO reserve by $230 million because the prices of the retail products it distributes (candy, gum, cigarettes, etc.) have risen. Grady runs a logistical machine second to none. You can look for bolt-ons at McLane, particularly in our new wine-and-spirits distribution business.

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乔丹·汉塞尔 4 月接掌耐捷,交出了 2011 年税前盈利 2.27 亿美元的成绩。这份业绩尤其难得,因为那一年大半时间里,新飞机的销售都不温不火。不过到了 12 月,销售出现了一波超出季节性常态的回升,只是这股势头能持续多久还说不准。几年前,耐捷曾是我的头号心病:它的成本远远盖过收入,现金像血一样往外淌。若没有伯克希尔撑着,耐捷早就垮了。这些麻烦如今都成了过去,乔丹正让一门管控得当、运转顺畅的生意稳稳地吐出利润。耐捷正按计划,携几家一流伙伴进军中国,此举将拓宽我们业务的“护城河”。论规模和广度,别的分时租赁运营商没一个能跟耐捷沾边,将来也不会有。耐捷对安全与服务那份锲而不舍的专注,已经在市场上换来了回报。

Jordan Hansell took over at NetJets in April and delivered 2011 pre-tax earnings of $227 million. That is a particularly impressive performance because the sale of new planes was slow during most of the year. In December, however, there was an uptick that was more than seasonally normal. How permanent it will be is uncertain. A few years ago NetJets was my number one worry: Its costs were far out of line with revenues, and cash was hemorrhaging. Without Berkshire’s support, NetJets would have gone broke. These problems are behind us, and Jordan is now delivering steady profits from a well-controlled and smoothly-running operation. NetJets is proceeding on a plan to enter China with some first-class partners, a move that will widen our business “moat.” No other fractional-ownership operator has remotely the size and breadth of the NetJets operation, and none ever will. NetJets’ unrelenting focus on safety and service has paid off in the marketplace.

看着马蒙在弗兰克·普塔克的带领下节节推进,实在是一桩赏心乐事。除了做大内生增长,弗兰克还定期出手补强收购,这些收购加总起来,会实实在在地增强马蒙的盈利能力。(过去几个月里,他就做成三笔,耗资约 2.7 亿美元。)遍布世界各地的合资项目,是马蒙的又一处机会。年中,马蒙与昆达利亚(Kundalia)家族在印度合办了一门起重机生意,已经开始贡献可观的利润。这是马蒙与该家族的第二次携手,此前几年,双方合办的一家电线电缆企业也办得红火。在马蒙经营的 11 个主要行业里,去年有 10 个盈利增长。你尽可放心,往后几年,马蒙的盈利只会更高。

It’s a joy to watch Marmon’s progress under Frank Ptak’s leadership. In addition to achieving internal growth, Frank regularly makes bolt-on acquisitions that, in aggregate, will materially increase Marmon’s earning power. (He did three, costing about $270 million, in the last few months.) Joint ventures around the world are another opportunity for Marmon. At midyear Marmon partnered with the Kundalia family in an Indian crane operation that is already delivering substantial profits. This is Marmon’s second venture with the family, following a successful wire and cable partnership instituted a few years ago. Of the eleven major sectors in which Marmon operates, ten delivered gains in earnings last year. You can be confident of higher earnings from Marmon in the years ahead.

“买入大宗商品,卖出品牌”,长久以来一直是生意上的一条成功公式。自 1886 年起,它为可口可乐带来了巨额而持久的利润,自 1891 年起又为箭牌带来了同样的丰厚回报。在小得多的规模上,自 40 年前买下喜诗糖果以来,我们也靠这套路子沾了不少光。去年,喜诗糖果创下 8300 万美元的税前利润纪录,把它自我们收购以来的累计利润推高到 16.5 亿美元。拿这个数字对比一下:我们当初的收购价是 2500 万美元,而年末的账面价值(扣除现金后)竟然低于零。(没错,你没看错;喜诗占用的资本随季节起伏,圣诞节过后跌到低谷。)这份把公司带上新台阶的功劳,要记在布拉德·金斯特勒名下——他 2006 年起出任首席执行官。

“Buy commodities, sell brands” has long been a formula for business success. It has produced enormous and sustained profits for Coca-Cola since 1886 and Wrigley since 1891. On a smaller scale, we have enjoyed good fortune with this approach at See’s Candy since we purchased it 40 years ago. Last year See’s had record pre-tax earnings of $83 million, bringing its total since we bought it to $1.65 billion. Contrast that figure with our purchase price of $25 million and our yearend carrying-value (net of cash) of less than zero. (Yes, you read that right; capital employed at See’s fluctuates seasonally, hitting a low after Christmas.) Credit Brad Kinstler for taking the company to new heights since he became CEO in 2006.

内布拉斯加家具城(持股 80%)2011 年创下盈利纪录,净利润是我们 1983 年入股之时的十倍以上。但这还不是最大的新闻。更重要的是,NFM 在达拉斯以北收购了一块 433 英亩的土地,我们将在这里建造一家几乎肯定会成为全美销售额最高的家居用品商店。目前,这一头衔由我们在奥马哈和堪萨斯城的两家门店共享,两家店 2011 年的销售额都创下纪录,双双突破 4 亿美元。得州门店要好几年才能建成,但我盼着在开业时去剪彩。(在伯克希尔,活儿都是经理们干的,彩头由我来领。)我们的新店将提供无可比拟的商品种类,以无法匹敌的价格出售,必将吸引远近的大批顾客。这种聚客能力,加上我们在这片场地上持有的大片土地,应该能帮我们招来其他多家大型商铺入驻。(若有高销量零售商正在读这段话,欢迎联系我。)我们与 NFM 以及经营它的布拉姆金(Blumkin)家族打交道的经历,着实令人愉悦。这门生意由罗丝·布拉姆金(人称“B 夫人”)创立,她于 1937 年凭借 500 美元和一个梦想起家。89 岁那年,她把自己持有的权益卖给了我,之后一直工作到 103 岁。(退休后第二年她便去世了,这个先后顺序,只要伯克希尔有哪位经理动了退休的念头,我就会拿出来讲一讲。)B 夫人的儿子路易如今 92 岁,二战归来后便协助母亲打造这门生意,他和妻子弗兰是我 55 年的老朋友了。到了路易的儿子罗恩和欧文这一辈,又将公司带上了新的高度,先是开出堪萨斯城门店,如今正为进军得州全力准备。

Nebraska Furniture Mart (80% owned) set an earnings record in 2011, netting more than ten times what it did in 1983, when we acquired our stake. But that’s not the big news. More important was NFM’s acquisition of a 433-acre tract north of Dallas on which we will build what is almost certain to be the highest-volume home-furnishings store in the country. Currently, that title is shared by our two stores in Omaha and Kansas City, each of which had record-setting sales of more than $400 million in 2011. It will be several years before the Texas store is completed, but I look forward to cutting the ribbon at the opening. (At Berkshire, the managers do the work; I take the bows.) Our new store, which will offer an unequalled variety of merchandise sold at prices that can’t be matched, will bring huge crowds from near and far. This drawing power and our extensive holdings of land at the site should enable us to attract a number of other major stores. (If any high-volume retailers are reading this, contact me.) Our experience with NFM and the Blumkin family that runs it has been a real joy. The business was built by Rose Blumkin (known to all as “Mrs. B”), who started the company in 1937 with $500 and a dream. She sold me our interest when she was 89 and worked until she was 103. (After retiring, she died the next year, a sequence I point out to any other Berkshire manager who even thinks of retiring.) Mrs. B’s son, Louie, now 92, helped his mother build the business after he returned from World War II and, along with his wife, Fran, has been my friend for 55 years. In turn, Louie’s sons, Ron and Irv, have taken the company to new heights, first opening the Kansas City store and now gearing up for Texas. 14

我和几个“小子”共度了许多美好时光,我视他们为挚友。布拉姆金一家是个非凡的家族。我从不愿意让优秀的基因白白浪费掉,这几天我特别高兴,因为布拉姆金家第四代的好几位成员已经加入了 NFM。总体来看,伯克希尔这个板块中各项业务的内在价值,均显著高于其账面价值。不过,对许多体量较小的公司而言,情况并非如此。在收购小公司这件事上,我犯下的错误远远超出我应承担的那一份。查理早就告诫过我:“如果一件事根本不值得做,那就不值得把它做好。”我本该更认真地去听。不管怎样,我们的大型收购总体上都表现不错——有几笔甚至极为出色——因此,整体而言,这个板块对我们来说是一个赢家。

The “boys” and I have had many great times together, and I count them among my best friends. The Blumkins are a remarkable family. Never inclined to let an extraordinary gene pool go to waste, I am rejoicing these days because several members of the fourth Blumkin generation have joined NFM. Overall, the intrinsic value of the businesses in this Berkshire sector significantly exceeds their book value. For many of the smaller companies, however, this is not true. I have made more than my share of mistakes buying small companies. Charlie long ago told me, “If something’s not worth doing at all, it’s not worth doing well,” and I should have listened harder. In any event, our large purchases have generally worked well – extraordinarily well in a few cases – and overall this sector is a winner for us.

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有几位股东告诉我,他们渴望多听我聊聊会计中那些冷僻的门道。那么,这里就讲一段 GAAP 规定下的荒唐事,希望这两位能看得开心。按常理,我们旗下各子公司理应按我们的购买成本,加上收购后它们所留存的利润来入账(除非其经济价值已大幅下降,此时才必须相应减记)。伯克希尔的现实情况基本就是如此——除了玛蒙(Marmon)出现的怪事。我们于 2008 年买下了这家公司 64% 的股份,并以我们付出的成本,也就是 48 亿美元,将这部分权益入账。到此为止,一切正常。随后,在 2011 年初,根据我们与普利兹克(Pritzker)家族最初签订的合同,我们又以 15 亿美元买下了另外 16% 的股份,这一价格是依据反映玛蒙已增值的一项公式得出的。然而,在这笔交易中,我们被要求立即将 6.14 亿美元的购买价款予以冲销,且该冲销要追溯至 2010 年底。(别问为什么!)显而易见,这笔冲销与经济现实毫无关系。经过这种毫无意义的减记,玛蒙内在价值超出其账面价值的部分反而变得更大了。

Certain shareholders have told me they hunger for more discussions of accounting arcana. So here’s a bit of GAAP-mandated nonsense I hope both of them enjoy. Common sense would tell you that our varied subsidiaries should be carried on our books at their cost plus the earnings they have retained since our purchase (unless their economic value has materially decreased, in which case an appropriate write-down must be taken). And that’s essentially the reality at Berkshire – except for the weird situation at Marmon. We purchased 64% of the company in 2008 and put this interest on our books at our cost, $4.8 billion. So far, so good. Then, in early 2011, pursuant to our original contract with the Pritzker family, we purchased an additional 16%, paying $1.5 billion as called for by a formula that reflected Marmon’s increased value. In this instance, however, we were required to immediately write off $614 million of the purchase price retroactive to the end of 2010. (Don’t ask!) Obviously, this write-off had no connection to economic reality. The excess of Marmon’s intrinsic value over its carrying value is widened by this meaningless write-down.

金融与金融产品

Finance and Financial Products

这是我们最小的一个板块,包含两家租赁公司——XTRA(拖车租赁)和 CORT(家具租赁),外加克莱顿房屋(Clayton Homes),它是全美预制房屋制造和融资领域的领先企业。除了这几家 100% 控股的子公司,我们还将一批金融资产以及我们在伯卡迪亚商业抵押贷款公司(Berkadia Commercial Mortgage)持有的 50% 的权益,也归入这个类别。回顾一下 2008 年底经济坠崖之后,我们这三家运营企业各自发生了什么,是很有启发的,因为它们的经历恰好揭示了随后那场参差不齐的复苏是何模样。我们两家租赁公司的业绩,反映的是“非住房”经济的状况。它们的税前利润合计,在 2009 年是 1,300 万美元,2010 年是 5,300 万美元,2011 年是 1.55 亿美元。这一改善反映出我们几乎所有非住房业务所经历的那种稳步复苏。与此形成鲜明对比的是,克莱顿所处的预制房屋行业(和现场建造的住宅一样)则经受了一场名副其实的萧条,至今毫无复苏迹象。全美预制房屋的销量,2009 年为 49,789 套,2010 年为 50,046 套,2011 年为 51,606 套。(而在 2005 年房地产市场红火时,这一数字是 146,744 套。)尽管境况艰难,克莱顿却始终保持盈利,这很大程度上是因为其抵押贷款组合在严峻环境下仍表现良好。我们是预制房屋领域最大的贷款机构,而且放贷对象通常是中低收入家庭,因此你可能会预计,我们在住房市场崩盘时会遭受严重损失。但是,通过恪守传统的贷款政策——即要求有实际意义的首付,且月供与常规收入保持合理比例——克莱顿将损失一直控制在可接受的水平。即便我们的许多借款人已有相当一段时间处于负资产状态,它依然做到了这一点。众所周知,美国在鼓励住房自有和发放抵押贷款的政策上走入了歧途,我们的经济如今正为这些错误付出巨大代价。参与这种破坏性行为的,有我们所有人——政府、贷款机构、借款人、媒体、评级机构,你能想到的都有。这一愚蠢行为的核心,就是那种几乎人人相信的观点:房价必然会随时间上涨,任何下跌都无足轻重。这一前提一旦被接受,住房交易中几乎所有价格和做法似乎都变得合情合理。各地的房主都感觉自己更富有了,纷纷通过再融资来将房产的增值“套现”。这些大规模涌入的现金,助长了整个经济中的消费狂欢。在狂欢持续时,一切都显得乐趣无穷。(一个几乎无人注意的事实是:大量因止赎而“失去”房屋的人,其实已经赚到了钱,因为他们早先通过再融资获得的现金,已超过其成本。在这些案例中,被赶出房屋的房主是赢家,而受害人则是贷款方。)15

This sector, our smallest, includes two rental companies, XTRA (trailers) and CORT (furniture), and Clayton Homes, the country’s leading producer and financer of manufactured homes. Aside from these 100%-owned subsidiaries, we also include in this category a collection of financial assets and our 50% interest in Berkadia Commercial Mortgage. It’s instructive to look at what transpired at our three operating businesses after the economy fell off a cliff in late 2008, because their experiences illuminate the fractured recovery that later came along. Results at our two leasing companies mirrored the “non-housing” economy. Their combined pre-tax earnings were $13 million in 2009, $53 million in 2010 and $155 million in 2011, an improvement reflecting the steady recovery we have seen in almost all of our non-housing businesses. In contrast, Clayton’s world of manufactured housing (just like site-built housing) has endured a veritable depression, experiencing no recovery to date. Manufactured housing sales in the nation were 49,789 homes in 2009, 50,046 in 2010 and 51,606 in 2011. (When housing was booming in 2005, they were 146,744.) Despite these difficult times, Clayton has continued to operate profitably, largely because its mortgage portfolio has performed well under trying circumstances. Because we are the largest lender in the manufactured homes sector and are also normally lending to lower-and-middle-income families, you might expect us to suffer heavy losses during a housing meltdown. But by sticking to old-fashioned loan policies – meaningful down payments and monthly payments with a sensible relationship to regular income – Clayton has kept losses to acceptable levels. It has done so even though many of our borrowers have had negative equity for some time. As is well-known, the U.S. went off the rails in its home-ownership and mortgage-lending policies, and for these mistakes our economy is now paying a huge price. All of us participated in the destructive behavior – government, lenders, borrowers, the media, rating agencies, you name it. At the core of the folly was the almost universal belief that the value of houses was certain to increase over time and that any dips would be inconsequential. The acceptance of this premise justified almost any price and practice in housing transactions. Homeowners everywhere felt richer and rushed to “monetize” the increased value of their homes by refinancings. These massive cash infusions fueled a consumption binge throughout our economy. It all seemed great fun while it lasted. (A largely unnoted fact: Large numbers of people who have “lost” their house through foreclosure have actually realized a profit because they carried out refinancings earlier that gave them cash in excess of their cost. In these cases, the evicted homeowner was the winner, and the victim was the lender.) 15

2007 年,泡沫破灭了,正如所有泡沫都必然如此。如今,我们正处在疗愈过程的第四个年头,尽管过程漫长且痛苦,但必定能够成功。今天,新组建家庭的数量已持续超过新房开工量。当全国的过剩住房库存消化殆尽后,克莱顿的盈利应有实质性改善。不过,以我今天的判断,我认为这个板块中三项业务的内在价值与其账面价值并无实质性差异。

In 2007, the bubble burst, just as all bubbles must. We are now in the fourth year of a cure that, though long and painful, is sure to succeed. Today, household formations are consistently exceeding housing starts. Clayton’s earnings should improve materially when the nation’s excess housing inventory is worked off. As I see things today, however, I believe the intrinsic value of the three businesses in this sector does not differ materially from their book value.

投资

Investments

下表列示的是我们在年底持有的、市值超过 10 亿美元的普通股投资。

Below we show our common stock investments that at yearend had a market value of more than $1 billion.

12/31/11
12/31/11

股数

Shares

我们持股的比例

Percentage of Company Owned

公司

Company

成本*

Cost*

市值

Market

股份公司持股比例成本*市场(单位:百万)
151,610,700美国运通公司13.0$ 1,287$ 7,151
200,000,000可口可乐公司8.81,29913,994
29,100,937康菲石油2.32,0272,121
63,905,931国际商业机器公司5.510,85611,751
31,416,127强生公司1.21,8802,060
79,034,713卡夫食品公司4.52,5892,953
20,060,390慕尼黑再保险11.32,9902,464
3,947,555POSCO5.17681,301
72,391,036宝洁公司2.64644,829
25,848,838赛诺菲1.92,0551,900
291,577,428乐购公司3.61,7191,827
78,060,769美国合众银行4.12,4012,112
39,037,142沃尔玛百货公司1.11,8932,333
400,015,828富国银行公司7.69,08611,024
其他6,8959,171
按市价计量的普通股总计$48,209$76,991
SharesCompanyPercentage of Company OwnedCost*Market (in millions)
151,610,700American Express Company13.0$ 1,287$ 7,151
200,000,000The Coca-Cola Company8.81,29913,994
29,100,937ConocoPhillips2.32,0272,121
63,905,931International Business Machines Corp5.510,85611,751
31,416,127Johnson & Johnson1.21,8802,060
79,034,713Kraft Foods Inc4.52,5892,953
20,060,390Munich Re11.32,9902,464
3,947,555POSCO5.17681,301
72,391,036The Procter & Gamble Company2.64644,829
25,848,838Sanofi1.92,0551,900
291,577,428Tesco plc3.61,7191,827
78,060,769U.S. Bancorp4.12,4012,112
39,037,142Wal-Mart Stores, Inc1.11,8932,333
400,015,828Wells Fargo & Company7.69,08611,024
Others6,8959,171
Total Common Stocks Carried at Market$48,209$76,991

*这是我们实际的买入价,也是我们的计税基础;在少数情况下,因为按规定做过资产增值或减值,GAAP 意义上的“成本”会与此不同。2011 年,我们的投资组合变动不大,但有三笔操作很重要:买入 IBM、买入美国银行,以及为富国银行的持仓追加 10 亿美元。银行业已经重新站稳脚跟,富国银行正蒸蒸日上,盈利强劲,资产稳健,资本金也处于创纪录水平。在美国银行这边,前任管理层捅出过一些巨大的娄子。布赖恩·莫伊尼汉(Brian Moynihan)在清理这些烂摊子上进展出色,只是整个过程还需要花上好几年才能收尾。与此同时,他还在悉心培育一门体量庞大、极具吸引力的核心业务,等今天的麻烦被人淡忘之后,它仍会长久地存在下去。我们那份买入 7 亿股美国银行股票的认股权证,很可能在到期前就变得极具价值。跟 1988 年买可口可乐、2006 年买铁路一样,我进入 IBM 也来得晚。这家公司的年报,我读了 50 多年,可直到去年 3 月一个星期六,我的思路才豁然贯通。正如梭罗所言:“要紧的不是你看着什么,而是你看出了什么。”托德·康姆斯(Todd Combs)去年建立起一个(按成本计)17.5 亿美元的投资组合,泰德·韦施勒(Ted Weschler)很快也会建起一个规模相仿的组合。两人各自的绩效薪酬,八成取决于自己的业绩,两成取决于搭档的业绩。当我们的季度报告披露出一些相对小额的持仓时,那多半不是我买的(尽管媒体常常看漏这一点),而是托德或泰德下的单。

*This is our actual purchase price and also our tax basis; GAAP “cost” differs in a few cases because of write-ups or write-downs that have been required. We made few changes in our investment holdings during 2011. But three moves were important: our purchases of IBM and Bank of America and the $1 billion addition we made to our Wells Fargo position. The banking industry is back on its feet, and Wells Fargo is prospering. Its earnings are strong, its assets solid and its capital at record levels. At Bank of America, some huge mistakes were made by prior management. Brian Moynihan has made excellent progress in cleaning these up, though the completion of that process will take a number of years. Concurrently, he is nurturing a huge and attractive underlying business that will endure long after today’s problems are forgotten. Our warrants to buy 700 million Bank of America shares will likely be of great value before they expire. As was the case with Coca-Cola in 1988 and the railroads in 2006, I was late to the IBM party. I have been reading the company’s annual report for more than 50 years, but it wasn’t until a Saturday in March last year that my thinking crystallized. As Thoreau said, “It’s not what you look at that matters, it’s what you see.” Todd Combs built a $1.75 billion portfolio (at cost) last year, and Ted Weschler will soon create one of similar size. Each of them receives 80% of his performance compensation from his own results and 20% from his partner’s. When our quarterly filings report relatively small holdings, these are not likely to be buys I made (though the media often overlook that point) but rather holdings denoting purchases by Todd or Ted.

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关于这两位新到的伙伴,还得再补充一点。日后伯克希尔下一任首席执行官做收购时,泰德和托德都会帮得上忙。他们都有一副出色的“商业头脑”,能够洞察那些有可能决定各行各业未来走向的经济力量。而支撑他们思考的,是对“什么可以预测、什么无从知晓”的清醒认识。

One additional point about these two new arrivals. Both Ted and Todd will be helpful to the next CEO of Berkshire in making acquisitions. They have excellent “business minds” that grasp the economic forces likely to determine the future of a wide variety of businesses. They are aided in their thinking by an understanding of what is predictable and what is unknowable.

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关于我们的衍生品头寸,没什么新情况可报告,过去几年的年报里已经详细描述过了。(1977 年以来的历年年报,均可在 www.berkshirehathaway.com 上查阅。)不过,行业里有一项重要变动必须指出:尽管我们现有合约的抵押要求极低,但针对新头寸的规则已经变了。因此,我们不会再去建立任何重大的衍生品头寸。凡是可能要求即刻缴纳抵押品的合约,无论哪一种,我们都避而远之。那种突如其来、数额巨大的追缴要求——可能由全球金融恐慌或大规模恐怖袭击这类飞来横祸引发——与我们“冗余流动性、财务实力无可置疑”这两大首要目标背道而驰。我们那些类似保险的衍生品合约——即当高收益债券指数里的某些成分出现违约时由我们赔付——正趋于尾声。那些曾让我们面临最大损失敞口的合约已经到期,剩余部分也将很快终止。2011 年,我们为两笔损失赔付了 8600 万美元,至此累计赔付达 26 亿美元。我们几乎可以确信,这个组合最终会实现“承保利润”,因为我们收取的保费是 34 亿美元,而未来的损失很可能微乎其微。此外,在这批合约五年的存续期里,我们平均持有约 20 亿美元的浮存金。在信用极度紧张时期取得这样的结果,凸显了获取与风险相称的保费是多么重要。查理和我仍然认为,我们的股票看跌期权头寸将产生显著利润,这既考虑了我们已持有超过 15 年的那 42 亿美元浮存金,也考虑了我们回购部分合约时已落袋的 2.22 亿美元利润。年末,伯克希尔的账面价值就剩余合约确认了 85 亿美元的负债;如果这些合约当时全部到期,我们需赔付的金额是 62 亿美元。

There is little new to report on our derivatives positions, which we have described in detail in past reports. (Annual reports since 1977 are available at www.berkshirehathaway.com.) One important industry change, however, must be noted: Though our existing contracts have very minor collateral requirements, the rules have changed for new positions. Consequently, we will not be initiating any major derivatives positions. We shun contracts of any type that could require the instant posting of collateral. The possibility of some sudden and huge posting requirement – arising from an out-of-the-blue event such as a worldwide financial panic or massive terrorist attack – is inconsistent with our primary objectives of redundant liquidity and unquestioned financial strength. Our insurance-like derivatives contracts, whereby we pay if various issues included in high-yield bond indices default, are coming to a close. The contracts that most exposed us to losses have already expired, and the remainder will terminate soon. In 2011, we paid out $86 million on two losses, bringing our total payments to $2.6 billion. We are almost certain to realize a final “underwriting profit” on this portfolio because the premiums we received were $3.4 billion, and our future losses are apt to be minor. In addition, we will have averaged about $2 billion of float over the five-year life of these contracts. This successful result during a time of great credit stress underscores the importance of obtaining a premium that is commensurate with the risk. Charlie and I continue to believe that our equity-put positions will produce a significant profit, considering both the $4.2 billion of float we will have held for more than fifteen years and the $222 million profit we’ve already realized on contracts that we repurchased. At yearend, Berkshire’s book value reflected a liability of $8.5 billion for the remaining contracts; if they had all come due at that time our payment would have been $6.2 billion.

投资者的基本选择,以及我们极力偏爱的那一种

The Basic Choices for Investors and the One We Strongly Prefer

投资,常被描述成现在把钱投出去,以期将来收回更多钱的过程。在伯克希尔,我们采用的要求更为苛刻的定义:投资,是现在将购买力让渡给他人,并有合理预期在未来——对名义收益缴过税之后——收回更多的购买力。更简洁地说,投资就是现在放弃消费,以便在将来有能力消费更多。由这个定义可以推出一条重要的推论:一项投资的风险,不是由贝塔(beta,一个华尔街术语,涵盖波动性,常被用来衡量风险)来衡量的,而是由该投资在其预期持有期内导致持有人购买力受损的概率——一种有理有据的概率——来衡量的。一项资产,价格可以大幅波动,但只要它在持有期内相当确定能带来购买力的增加,就算不上有风险。而等一下我们也会看到,一项纹丝不动的资产,却可能充满风险。投资的可能性既多且杂。不过,大体可归为三大类,理解每一类的特性至关重要。那么,就让我们把这片领域巡视一遍吧。•

Investing is often described as the process of laying out money now in the expectation of receiving more money in the future. At Berkshire we take a more demanding approach, defining investing as the transfer to others of purchasing power now with the reasoned expectation of receiving more purchasing power – after taxes have been paid on nominal gains – in the future. More succinctly, investing is forgoing consumption now in order to have the ability to consume more at a later date. From our definition there flows an important corollary: The riskiness of an investment is not measured by beta (a Wall Street term encompassing volatility and often used in measuring risk) but rather by the probability – the reasoned probability – of that investment causing its owner a loss of purchasing-power over his contemplated holding period. Assets can fluctuate greatly in price and not be risky as long as they are reasonably certain to deliver increased purchasing power over their holding period. And as we will see, a non-fluctuating asset can be laden with risk. Investment possibilities are both many and varied. There are three major categories, however, and it’s important to understand the characteristics of each. So let’s survey the field. •

以某一给定货币计价的投资,包括货币市场基金、债券、抵押贷款、银行存款以及其他工具。这类基于货币的投资,大多被认为是“安全”的。但实际上,它们属于最危险的资产之列。它们的贝塔可能为零,风险却极为巨大。过去一个世纪里,这些工具在许多国家毁掉了投资者的购买力,即便持有者始终按时收到了利息和本金。而且,这种糟糕的结果,还会无止境地反复出现。政府决定着货币的终极价值,而系统性的力量有时会促使他们倾向于那些制造通胀的政策。这类政策时不时就会失控。即便在美国这样对货币稳定怀有强烈愿望的国家,自 1965 年我接手管理伯克希尔以来,美元的价值也已惊人地缩水了 86%。今天,要花不少于 7 美元才能买到当时 1 美元能买的东西。因此,在此期间,一家免税机构光是想守住购买力不缩水,就需要从债券投资中获得每年 4.3% 的利息。这家机构的管理者若以为其中任何一部分利息能算作“收入”,就纯属自欺欺人了。17

Investments that are denominated in a given currency include money-market funds, bonds, mortgages, bank deposits, and other instruments. Most of these currency-based investments are thought of as “safe.” In truth they are among the most dangerous of assets. Their beta may be zero, but their risk is huge. Over the past century these instruments have destroyed the purchasing power of investors in many countries, even as the holders continued to receive timely payments of interest and principal. This ugly result, moreover, will forever recur. Governments determine the ultimate value of money, and systemic forces will sometimes cause them to gravitate to policies that produce inflation. From time to time such policies spin out of control. Even in the U.S., where the wish for a stable currency is strong, the dollar has fallen a staggering 86% in value since 1965, when I took over management of Berkshire. It takes no less than $7 today to buy what $1 did at that time. Consequently, a tax-free institution would have needed 4.3% interest annually from bond investments over that period to simply maintain its purchasing power. Its managers would have been kidding themselves if they thought of any portion of that interest as “income.” 17

对像你我这样要缴税的投资者,情况还要糟得多。同样是这 47 年,连续滚动持有美国国库券每年能产生 5.7% 的收益。这似乎令人满意。可如果一位个人投资者按平均 25% 的税率缴纳个人所得税,这 5.7% 的回报在真实收入意义上将一无所获。这位投资者看得见的所得税,会从名义收益率里拿掉 1.4 个百分点,而看不见的通胀税,则会把剩下的 4.3 个百分点吞噬殆尽。值得注意的是,那笔隐形的通胀“税”,竟是这位投资者可能视作自己主要负担的那笔显性所得税的三倍还多。“我们信仰上帝”或许印在我们的钞票上,可那只启动政府印钞机的手,却从来都太像凡人之手。当然,高利率可以补偿购买者在货币型投资中所面临的部分通胀风险——事实上,20 世纪 80 年代初期的利率就把这个活儿干得不错。然而,目前的利率根本无法抵消投资者所承担的购买力风险。眼下,债券真该附上一张警示标签。因此,在当今这样的条件下,我并不喜欢基于货币的投资。即便如此,伯克希尔仍持有大量的这类资产,主要是短期品种。在伯克希尔,保持充裕流动性的需求占据着中心位置,无论利率多么不尽人意,这一点也绝不会被怠慢。为满足这一需求,我们主要持有美国国库券,这是唯一一种在最混乱的经济环境下,也指望得上其流动性的投资。我们流动性的常备水平是 200 亿美元;100 亿美元是我们的绝对最低线。除了流动性和监管机构加诸于我们的要求之外,我们只有在其可能带来不寻常收益时,才会买入与货币相关的证券——要么是某一特定信用被错误定价,就像在周期性垃圾债崩盘中可能出现的情况那样;要么是利率升至某一高位,让我们有望在利率下降时,于高评级债券上实现可观的资本利得。虽然我们过去曾利用过这两种机会——并可能再次这么做——但眼下,我们与这类前景恰好背道而驰,差了 180 度。今天,华尔街人士谢尔比·库洛姆·戴维斯(Shelby Cullom Davis)很久以前的一句揶揄似乎十分应景:“那些曾被宣传为提供无风险回报的债券,如今价格所隐含的,却是无回报的风险。”•

For tax-paying investors like you and me, the picture has been far worse. During the same 47-year period, continuous rolling of U.S. Treasury bills produced 5.7% annually. That sounds satisfactory. But if an individual investor paid personal income taxes at a rate averaging 25%, this 5.7% return would have yielded nothing in the way of real income. This investor’s visible income tax would have stripped him of 1.4 points of the stated yield, and the invisible inflation tax would have devoured the remaining 4.3 points. It’s noteworthy that the implicit inflation “tax” was more than triple the explicit income tax that our investor probably thought of as his main burden. “In God We Trust” may be imprinted on our currency, but the hand that activates our government’s printing press has been all too human. High interest rates, of course, can compensate purchasers for the inflation risk they face with currency-based investments – and indeed, rates in the early 1980s did that job nicely. Current rates, however, do not come close to offsetting the purchasing-power risk that investors assume. Right now bonds should come with a warning label. Under today’s conditions, therefore, I do not like currency-based investments. Even so, Berkshire holds significant amounts of them, primarily of the short-term variety. At Berkshire the need for ample liquidity occupies center stage and will never be slighted, however inadequate rates may be. Accommodating this need, we primarily hold U.S. Treasury bills, the only investment that can be counted on for liquidity under the most chaotic of economic conditions. Our working level for liquidity is $20 billion; $10 billion is our absolute minimum. Beyond the requirements that liquidity and regulators impose on us, we will purchase currency-related securities only if they offer the possibility of unusual gain – either because a particular credit is mispriced, as can occur in periodic junk-bond debacles, or because rates rise to a level that offers the possibility of realizing substantial capital gains on high-grade bonds when rates fall. Though we’ve exploited both opportunities in the past – and may do so again – we are now 180 degrees removed from such prospects. Today, a wry comment that Wall Streeter Shelby Cullom Davis made long ago seems apt: “Bonds promoted as offering risk-free returns are now priced to deliver return-free risk.” •

第二大类投资,涉及的是那种永远不会有任何产出的资产。买家买入,是希望未来会有其他人——明知道这些资产永远不会有产出的人——肯出更高的价钱接手。17 世纪时,郁金香,在所有东西当中,曾短暂地成了这类买家的最爱。这类投资需要一个不断膨胀的买家群体,而这群人之所以会被吸引,又是因为他们相信买家群体还会进一步膨胀。持有者受到激励的,不是资产本身能产出什么——它将永远死气沉沉——而是这样一种信念:未来别人会比今天更热切地渴望得到它。

这一类里的头号资产是黄金,如今它是那些几乎对所有其他资产、尤其是对纸币心怀恐惧的人的最爱(如前所述,他们对纸币价值的恐惧是有道理的)。然而,黄金有两个显著的缺点:既没多大用处,也不会生息繁衍。没错,黄金有些工业和装饰用途,但这方面的需求既有限,又无法吸收新增的产量。与此同时,你把一盎司黄金永久地持有下去,到头来手里仍然只是那一盎司。

驱动多数黄金买入行为的,是一个信念,即恐慌者的队伍还会扩大。过去十年,这个信念确实被证明是正确的。除此之外,价格上涨本身又催生出额外的买入热情,把那些视上涨为投资逻辑得到“证实”的买家也招了进来。当“随大流”的投资者涌进任何一场盛宴,他们便在一段时间里造出了属于自己的“真理”。过去 15 年里,互联网股票和房子都展示过:把一个起初还算合理的逻辑,跟一场被大肆宣扬的价格上涨搅在一起,能酿出何等极端的过度狂热。在这些泡沫里,一大批原本持怀疑态度的投资者,最终向市场递交的“铁证”缴了械,买家群体也在一段时间里膨胀到足以让这辆花车继续向前滚动。可吹得够大的泡泡终归要破。届时,那句老话便再次得到印证:“智者在开头做的事,愚者到末了才做。” 18

The second major category of investments involves assets that will never produce anything, but that are purchased in the buyer’s hope that someone else – who also knows that the assets will be forever unproductive – will pay more for them in the future. Tulips, of all things, briefly became a favorite of such buyers in the 17th century. This type of investment requires an expanding pool of buyers, who, in turn, are enticed because they believe the buying pool will expand still further. Owners are not inspired by what the asset itself can produce – it will remain lifeless forever – but rather by the belief that others will desire it even more avidly in the future. The major asset in this category is gold, currently a huge favorite of investors who fear almost all other assets, especially paper money (of whose value, as noted, they are right to be fearful). Gold, however, has two significant shortcomings, being neither of much use nor procreative. True, gold has some industrial and decorative utility, but the demand for these purposes is both limited and incapable of soaking up new production. Meanwhile, if you own one ounce of gold for an eternity, you will still own one ounce at its end. What motivates most gold purchasers is their belief that the ranks of the fearful will grow. During the past decade that belief has proved correct. Beyond that, the rising price has on its own generated additional buying enthusiasm, attracting purchasers who see the rise as validating an investment thesis. As “bandwagon” investors join any party, they create their own truth – for a while. Over the past 15 years, both Internet stocks and houses have demonstrated the extraordinary excesses that can be created by combining an initially sensible thesis with well-publicized rising prices. In these bubbles, an army of originally skeptical investors succumbed to the “proof” delivered by the market, and the pool of buyers – for a time – expanded sufficiently to keep the bandwagon rolling. But bubbles blown large enough inevitably pop. And then the old proverb is confirmed once again: “What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end.” 18

如今,全世界的黄金存量约为 17 万公吨。要是把这些黄金统统熔合在一起,会形成一个每边约 68 英尺的立方体。(不妨想象一下,它能舒舒服服地放进一个棒球场的内场。)按每盎司 1750 美元计——这是我写这封信时的金价——其价值可达 9.6 万亿美元。就叫这个立方体“A 堆”吧。现在,我们再凑出一个花费相同的“B 堆”。为此,我们可以买下美国全部的农田(4 亿英亩,年产出约 2000 亿美元),外加 16 家埃克森美孚(全球最赚钱的公司,一家每年盈利就超过 400 亿美元)。买完这些,手里还能剩下约 1 万亿美元当零花钱(大肆采买这一通之后,总不好意思说囊中羞涩)。你能想象一个手握 9.6 万亿美元的投资者,会舍 B 堆而取 A 堆吗?除了现有黄金存量那令人咋舌的估值,当前的价格还让如今一年的黄金产量身价约 1600 亿美元。买家——不论是首饰和工业用户、惶恐的个人,还是投机客——都得源源不断地消化这些新增供应,才仅仅能让现价维持住平衡。一个世纪之后,那 4 亿英亩农田将产出海量的玉米、小麦、棉花及其他作物——而且无论那时的货币是什么,它都会继续奉上这份宝贵的丰收。埃克森美孚多半已向股东派发出数以万亿美元计的股息,同时还握着价值更以万亿计的资产(别忘了,你拿的是 16 家埃克森美孚)。而那 17 万吨黄金,个头分毫不变,照旧生不出任何东西。你尽可以抚摩那个立方体,它却不会给你半点回应。诚然,一个世纪后当人们心生恐惧时,很可能仍有不少人会一窝蜂地扑向黄金。但我坚信,A 堆当前 9.6 万亿美元的估值,在未来一个世纪里的复合增长率,将远远逊于 B 堆所能达到的水平。

Today the world’s gold stock is about 170,000 metric tons. If all of this gold were melded together, it would form a cube of about 68 feet per side. (Picture it fitting comfortably within a baseball infield.) At $1,750 per ounce – gold’s price as I write this – its value would be $9.6 trillion. Call this cube pile A. Let’s now create a pile B costing an equal amount. For that, we could buy all U.S. cropland (400 million acres with output of about $200 billion annually), plus 16 Exxon Mobils (the world’s most profitable company, one earning more than $40 billion annually). After these purchases, we would have about $1 trillion left over for walking-around money (no sense feeling strapped after this buying binge). Can you imagine an investor with $9.6 trillion selecting pile A over pile B? Beyond the staggering valuation given the existing stock of gold, current prices make today’s annual production of gold command about $160 billion. Buyers – whether jewelry and industrial users, frightened individuals, or speculators – must continually absorb this additional supply to merely maintain an equilibrium at present prices. A century from now the 400 million acres of farmland will have produced staggering amounts of corn, wheat, cotton, and other crops – and will continue to produce that valuable bounty, whatever the currency may be. Exxon Mobil will probably have delivered trillions of dollars in dividends to its owners and will also hold assets worth many more trillions (and, remember, you get 16 Exxons). The 170,000 tons of gold will be unchanged in size and still incapable of producing anything. You can fondle the cube, but it will not respond. Admittedly, when people a century from now are fearful, it’s likely many will still rush to gold. I’m confident, however, that the $9.6 trillion current valuation of pile A will compound over the century at a rate far inferior to that achieved by pile B. •

我们头两类资产,在恐慌的顶点最受追捧:对经济崩盘的惊惧,把人们赶向货币类资产,尤其是美国国债;而对货币崩溃的惊惧,又催着人们奔向黄金这类不生息的资产。2008 年底,我们听到“现金为王”的说法,而那时正是该把现金撒出去、而非攥在手里的时候。同样,20 世纪 80 年代初,当固定美元投资处在人们记忆中最诱人的价位时,我们又听到“现金是垃圾”的论调。在这几个当口,那些非要身边有一群人壮胆才敢下手的投资者,为这份心安付出了昂贵的代价。我自己偏爱的——你们早料到我要说这个了——是第三类:投资于有产出的资产,无论是企业、农场还是房地产。最理想的,是这类资产在通胀年月里,能以最少的新增资本投入,产出价值不缩水的购买力。农场、房地产,以及可口可乐、IBM 和我们自家的喜诗糖果这许多企业,都能过得了这道双重考验。另有一些公司——想想我们那些受监管的公用事业,比方说——却过不了,因为通胀会给它们压上沉重的资本负担:要多挣钱,主人就得多投钱。即便如此,这些投资仍要胜过不生息的资产或货币类资产。无论一个世纪后的货币是以黄金、贝壳、鲨鱼牙,还是(像今天这样)一张纸为本,人们照样愿意拿每天几分钟的劳动,去换一瓶可口可乐或几块喜诗花生脆糖。将来,美国的人口会比现在运送更多货物、吃掉更多食物、占用更多居住空间。人们将永远拿自己产出的东西,去换别人产出的东西。我们国家的企业,会一如既往地高效地把本国公民想要的商品和服务送到他们手上。打个比方,这些商业“奶牛”能活上几百年,还会挤出越来越多的“牛奶”。它们的价值,不取决于交换媒介是什么,而取决于它们供奶的能力。卖牛奶的进项,会为奶牛的主人们不断复利滚存,就像 20 世纪里道琼斯指数从 66 点涨到 11,497 点(一路还派了大把股息)那样。伯克希尔的目标,是不断增持一流的企业。我们的首选是把它们整个收入囊中——但我们也会通过持有大量可交易股票的方式来当股东。我相信,放在任何一段足够长的时期里看,这一类投资都会被证明是我们审视的这三类中一骑绝尘的赢家。更要紧的是,它还将是遥遥领先的最安全的那一个。¹⁹

Our first two categories enjoy maximum popularity at peaks of fear: Terror over economic collapse drives individuals to currency-based assets, most particularly U.S. obligations, and fear of currency collapse fosters movement to sterile assets such as gold. We heard “cash is king” in late 2008, just when cash should have been deployed rather than held. Similarly, we heard “cash is trash” in the early 1980s just when fixed-dollar investments were at their most attractive level in memory. On those occasions, investors who required a supportive crowd paid dearly for that comfort. My own preference – and you knew this was coming – is our third category: investment in productive assets, whether businesses, farms, or real estate. Ideally, these assets should have the ability in inflationary times to deliver output that will retain its purchasing-power value while requiring a minimum of new capital investment. Farms, real estate, and many businesses such as Coca-Cola, IBM and our own See’s Candy meet that double-barreled test. Certain other companies – think of our regulated utilities, for example – fail it because inflation places heavy capital requirements on them. To earn more, their owners must invest more. Even so, these investments will remain superior to nonproductive or currency-based assets. Whether the currency a century from now is based on gold, seashells, shark teeth, or a piece of paper (as today), people will be willing to exchange a couple of minutes of their daily labor for a Coca-Cola or some See’s peanut brittle. In the future the U.S. population will move more goods, consume more food, and require more living space than it does now. People will forever exchange what they produce for what others produce. Our country’s businesses will continue to efficiently deliver goods and services wanted by our citizens. Metaphorically, these commercial “cows” will live for centuries and give ever greater quantities of “milk” to boot. Their value will be determined not by the medium of exchange but rather by their capacity to deliver milk. Proceeds from the sale of the milk will compound for the owners of the cows, just as they did during the 20th century when the Dow increased from 66 to 11,497 (and paid loads of dividends as well). Berkshire’s goal will be to increase its ownership of first-class businesses. Our first choice will be to own them in their entirety – but we will also be owners by way of holding sizable amounts of marketable stocks. I believe that over any extended period of time this category of investing will prove to be the runaway winner among the three we’ve examined. More important, it will be by far the safest. 19

股东大会将于 5 月 5 日(星期六)在 CenturyLink 中心(由“Qwest”更名而来)举行。去年,凯莉·凯泽首次担纲主持人,便一举赢得终身担纲的资格。她干得人人叫好——尤其是我。早上 7 点开门后不久,我们将增添一项新活动:扔报纸挑战赛。去年年底,伯克希尔收购了《奥马哈世界先驱报》,在我与它的股东员工会面时,我讲起自己十几岁投递 50 万份报纸时练就的折报和投掷功夫。我当即看出台下听众眼中的怀疑。这我并不意外。毕竟,记者的信条是:“哪怕你妈说她爱你,也得去核实一下。”所以,现在我得拿出真本事。会上,我将迎战所有挑战者,把《世界先驱报》投向 35 英尺外的一处克莱顿风格的门廊。任何挑战者,只要报纸落点比我的更靠近门阶,便能赢得一根 Dilly Bar 雪糕。我已请冰雪皇后(Dairy Queen)为比赛备了几根,尽管我怀疑是否真会需要。我们会备下一大摞报纸。拿一份,折好(不许用橡皮筋)。使出你的看家本领。让我开开眼。8 点 30 分,将放映一部新的伯克希尔影片。一小时后,我们开始问答环节(中间会在 CenturyLink 的餐饮摊位歇歇,吃个午饭),一直进行到下午 3 点 30 分。短暂休息后,查理和我将于下午 3 点 45 分召开股东大会。如果你打算在白天的问答时段离场,请挑查理讲话的时候走。当然,离场最好的理由是去购物。为此,我们会助你一臂之力:在紧邻会场的那个 194,300 平方英尺的大厅里,摆满几十家伯克希尔子公司的产品。去年,你们非常给力,多数摊位的销售额都创下新高。在 9 个小时里,我们卖出了 1,249 双 Justin 靴子、11,254 磅喜诗糖果、8,000 把 Quikut 刀(相当于每分钟 15 把)和 6,126 双 Wells Lamont 手套——这是马蒙集团(Marmon)的产品,我竟然是头一回听说这东西的存在。(我一门心思盯着的产品是钱。)不过,你们还能做得更好。记住:谁说金钱买不来快乐,那只是因为没在我们的股东大会上购过物。今年的新参展商里,有我们的跑鞋公司 Brooks。Brooks 一直在攻城略地,抢占市场份额,2011 年销售额增长了 34%,这已是它连续第十年创下销量纪录。过去转转,向公司首席执行官吉姆·韦伯道声贺。还有,务必买上几双限量版的“伯克希尔·哈撒韦跑鞋”。GEICO 会有一个展位,由多位来自全国各地的顶尖顾问坐镇,他们个个都准备好为你提供车险报价。在大多数情况下,GEICO 能给你一个股东折扣(通常是 8%)。在我们经营的 51 个辖区中,有 44 个允许提供这项特别优惠。(补充一点:若你本身已够格享受其他折扣,比如某些团体的折扣,此项优惠不叠加。)带上你现有保单的详细信息,看看我们能否帮你省钱。我相信,你们当中至少有一半人可以。一定要去逛逛 Bookworm 书摊。那里将推出超过 35 种图书和 DVD,包括几本新书。我推荐《MiTek》,这是一部关于我们旗下一家极为成功的子公司的翔实历史。你将读到,我当初对这家公司产生兴趣,缘于在邮件中收到一块其貌不扬的金属,我完全猜不透它的用途。自 2001 年我们收购 MiTek 以来,它已完成 33 次“补强型”收购,几乎次次成功。我想你也会喜欢彼得·贝弗林编写的一本小书,它梳理了伯克希尔的投资与经营原则,总结了查理和我多年来在年报和股东大会上所讲的内容。若你需要把买的书寄回家,附近有寄递服务可供使用。如果你出手阔绰——或者心向往之——可以在星期六正午到下午 5 点,去奥马哈机场东侧的 Elliott Aviation 参观。届时,我们会有一队 NetJets 公务机停在那里,保管让你心跳加速。坐大巴来,乘私人飞机走。你的信用额度我批准了。随本报告附上的委托声明材料中,有一份附件说明了如何领取参加年会及其他活动所需的凭证。航空公司有时会在伯克希尔周末期间抬高票价。若你远道而来,不妨比比飞往堪萨斯城和飞往奥马哈的费用。两市之间车程约 2.5 小时,你没准能省下一大笔钱,特别是如果你本计划在奥马哈租车的话。把省下的钱,花在我们这儿吧。²⁰

The Annual Meeting The annual meeting will be held on Saturday, May 5th at the CenturyLink Center (renamed from “Qwest”). Last year, Carrie Kizer debuted as the ringmaster and earned a lifetime assignment. Everyone loved the job she did – especially me. Soon after the 7 a.m. opening of the doors, we will have a new activity: The Newspaper Tossing Challenge. Late last year, Berkshire purchased the Omaha World-Herald and, in my meeting with its shareholder-employees, I told of the folding and throwing skills I developed while delivering 500,000 papers as a teenager. I immediately saw skepticism in the eyes of the audience. That was no surprise to me. After all, the reporters’ mantra is: “If your mother says she loves you, check it out.” So now I have to back up my claim. At the meeting, I will take on all comers in making 35-foot tosses of the World-Herald to a Clayton porch. Any challenger whose paper lands closer to the doorstep than mine will receive a dilly bar. I’ve asked Dairy Queen to supply several for the contest, though I doubt that any will be needed. We will have a large stack of papers. Grab one. Fold it (no rubber bands). Take your best shot. Make my day. At 8:30, a new Berkshire movie will be shown. An hour later, we will start the question-and-answer period, which (with a break for lunch at the CenturyLink’s stands) will last until 3:30. After a short recess, Charlie and I will convene the annual meeting at 3:45. If you decide to leave during the day’s question periods, please do so while Charlie is talking. The best reason to exit, of course, is to shop. We will help you do so by filling the 194,300-square-foot hall that adjoins the meeting area with products from dozens of Berkshire subsidiaries. Last year, you did your part, and most locations racked up record sales. In a nine-hour period, we sold 1,249 pairs of Justin boots, 11,254 pounds of See’s candy, 8,000 Quikut knives (that’s 15 knives per minute) and 6,126 pairs of Wells Lamont gloves, a Marmon product whose very existence was news to me. (The product I focus on is money.) But you can do better. Remember: Anyone who says money can’t buy happiness simply hasn’t shopped at our meeting. Among the new exhibitors this year will be Brooks, our running-shoe company. Brooks has been gobbling up market share and in 2011 had a sales gain of 34%, its tenth consecutive year of record volume. Drop by and congratulate Jim Weber, the company’s CEO. And be sure to buy a couple of pairs of limited edition “Berkshire Hathaway Running Shoes.” GEICO will have a booth staffed by a number of its top counselors from around the country, all of them ready to supply you with auto insurance quotes. In most cases, GEICO will be able to give you a shareholder discount (usually 8%). This special offer is permitted by 44 of the 51 jurisdictions in which we operate. (One supplemental point: The discount is not additive if you qualify for another, such as that given certain groups.) Bring the details of your existing insurance and check out whether we can save you money. For at least half of you, I believe we can. Be sure to visit the Bookworm. It will carry more than 35 books and DVDs, including a couple of new ones. I recommend MiTek, an informative history of one of our very successful subsidiaries. You’ll learn how my interest in the company was originally piqued by my receiving in the mail a hunk of ugly metal whose purpose I couldn’t fathom. Since we bought MiTek in 2001, it has made 33 “tuck-in” acquisitions, almost all successful. I think you’ll also like a short book that Peter Bevelin has put together explaining Berkshire’s investment and operating principles. It sums up what Charlie and I have been saying over the years in annual reports and at annual meetings. Should you need to ship your book purchases, a shipping service will be available nearby. If you are a big spender – or aspire to become one – visit Elliott Aviation on the east side of the Omaha airport between noon and 5:00 p.m. on Saturday. There we will have a fleet of NetJets aircraft that will get your pulse racing. Come by bus; leave by private jet. I’ll OK your credit. An attachment to the proxy material that is enclosed with this report explains how you can obtain the credential you will need for admission to the meeting and other events. Airlines have sometimes jacked up prices for the Berkshire weekend. If you are coming from far away, compare the cost of flying to Kansas City versus Omaha. The drive between the two cities is about 2 1⁄ 2 hours, and it may be that you can save significant money, particularly if you had planned to rent a car in Omaha. Spend the savings with us. 20

在内布拉斯加家具城——它坐落在道奇街与太平洋街之间第 72 街上一片 77 英亩的地块上——我们将再度举办“伯克希尔周末”折扣活动。去年,这家店在股东大会促销期间做了 3270 万美元的生意,这个数字超过了绝大多数家具店一整年的营业额。要享受伯克希尔折扣,你必须在 5 月 1 日(星期二)至 5 月 7 日(星期一)期间选购,并出示你的参会凭证。这段时间的特惠价,甚至也适用于几家素来对打折有严格规定的一流制造商的产品——本着我们股东周末的精神,它们破例为你们网开一面。我们感谢它们的配合。内布拉斯加家具城周一至周六上午 10 点营业到晚上 9 点,周日上午 10 点到下午 6 点。今年星期六下午 5 点 30 分至 8 点,家具城要办一场野餐会,诚邀各位光临。

在波仙珠宝,我们将再度举办两场股东专属活动。第一场是 5 月 4 日(星期五)晚上 6 点至 9 点的鸡尾酒招待会;第二场,也是主庆典,定在 5 月 6 日(星期日)上午 9 点至下午 4 点。星期六我们营业到下午 6 点。星期日下午 2 点左右,我会在波仙珠宝亲自站柜台,拼命想超过去年的销售成绩。所以,都来“宰”我一刀吧,跟我讨一个“疯狂沃伦”价。整个周末,波仙珠宝都会人山人海。为方便各位,股东特惠价从 4 月 30 日(星期一)一直延续到 5 月 12 日(星期六)。这段时间里,请出示你的参会凭证,或能证明你是伯克希尔股东的券商对账单,以表明身份。星期日,在波仙珠宝外的商场里,两届美国国际象棋冠军帕特里克·沃尔夫将蒙上双眼,以六人一组的车轮战迎战所有睁眼的挑战者。不远处,来自达拉斯的杰出魔术师诺曼·贝克,会让围观者看得目瞪口呆。此外,我们还请到两位世界顶尖的桥牌高手——鲍勃·哈曼和莎伦·奥斯伯格——在星期日下午陪我们的股东打牌。两个非高手——查理和我——也会凑到牌桌旁。

戈拉特牛排馆和皮科洛餐厅将在 5 月 6 日(星期日)再度只为伯克希尔股东开门。两家都营业到晚上 10 点,戈拉特下午 1 点开张,皮科洛下午 4 点开张。这两家是我最喜欢的餐厅,星期日晚上我两家都要去。(精算表告诉我,我这辈子还能再吃进 1200 万卡路里。一想到可能还有额度没用完就撒手人寰,我就怕得不行,所以打算星期日先把额度提前用掉。)记住:预订戈拉特,请在 4 月 1 日(不得早于此日)拨打 402-551-3733;预订皮科洛,请拨打 402-342-9038。到了皮科洛,摆出点派头,甜点要一杯超大杯的根汁汽水冰激凌飘浮。只有娘娘腔才点小杯的。

今年的问答环节,我们仍旧请那三位财经记者,让他们把股东通过电子邮件提交的问题抛给查理和我。这三位记者及其邮箱是:《财富》杂志的卡罗尔·卢米斯,邮箱 [email protected];CNBC 的贝基·奎克,邮箱 [email protected];《纽约时报》的安德鲁·罗斯·索金,邮箱 [email protected]。从提交上来的问题里,每位记者会各自挑出十来个自认为最有意思、最重要的。记者们告诉我,你的问题想被选中,机会最大的诀窍是:问得简短、别拖到最后一刻才发、跟伯克希尔相关、每封邮件里问题不超过两个。(在邮件里注明一下,如果问题被选中,你是否愿意被提及姓名。)今年,我们又增加了一个由三位跟踪伯克希尔的证券分析师组成的小组,他们是 KBW 的克里夫·加兰特、巴克莱资本的杰伊·格尔布,以及道灵合伙公司的加里·兰塞姆。这几位分析师会带来他们自己那些针对伯克希尔的问题,与记者和现场观众轮番提问。查理和我认为,所有股东都应当同时拿到伯克希尔的新信息,也应当有充裕的时间去分析,这正是我们尽量在星期五收盘后才发布财务信息的原因。我们不与大型机构投资者或分析师私下一对一交谈。有了这个新小组,分析师便能公开发问——甚至问上几个偏技术性的问题——这种方式,或许能让许多股东都受益。21

At Nebraska Furniture Mart, located on a 77-acre site on 72nd Street between Dodge and Pacific, we will again be having “Berkshire Weekend” discount pricing. Last year the store did $32.7 million of business during its annual meeting sale, a volume that exceeds the yearly sales of most furniture stores. To obtain the Berkshire discount, you must make your purchases between Tuesday, May 1st and Monday, May 7th inclusive, and also present your meeting credential. The period’s special pricing will even apply to the products of several prestigious manufacturers that normally have ironclad rules against discounting but which, in the spirit of our shareholder weekend, have made an exception for you. We appreciate their cooperation. NFM is open from 10 a.m. to 9 p.m. Monday through Saturday, and 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Sunday. On Saturday this year, from 5:30 p.m. to 8 p.m., NFM is having a picnic to which you are all invited. At Borsheims, we will again have two shareholder-only events. The first will be a cocktail reception from 6 p.m. to 9 p.m. on Friday, May 4th. The second, the main gala, will be held on Sunday, May 6th, from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. On Saturday, we will be open until 6 p.m. On Sunday, around 2 p.m., I will be clerking at Borsheims, desperate to beat my sales figure from last year. So come take advantage of me. Ask me for my “Crazy Warren” price. We will have huge crowds at Borsheims throughout the weekend. For your convenience, therefore, shareholder prices will be available from Monday, April 30th through Saturday, May 12th. During that period, please identify yourself as a shareholder by presenting your meeting credentials or a brokerage statement that shows you are a Berkshire holder. On Sunday, in the mall outside of Borsheims, a blindfolded Patrick Wolff, twice U.S. chess champion, will take on all comers – who will have their eyes wide open – in groups of six. Nearby, Norman Beck, a remarkable magician from Dallas, will bewilder onlookers. Additionally, we will have Bob Hamman and Sharon Osberg, two of the world’s top bridge experts, available to play bridge with our shareholders on Sunday afternoon. Two non-experts – Charlie and I – will also be at the tables. Gorat’s and Piccolo’s will again be open exclusively for Berkshire shareholders on Sunday, May 6th. Both will be serving until 10 p.m., with Gorat’s opening at 1 p.m. and Piccolo’s opening at 4 p.m. These restaurants are my favorites, and I will eat at both of them on Sunday evening. (Actuarial tables tell me that I can consume another 12 million calories before my death. I’m terrified at the thought of leaving any of these behind, so will be frontloading on Sunday.) Remember: To make a reservation at Gorat’s, call 402-551-3733 on April 1st (but not before) and at Piccolo’s, call 402-342-9038. At Piccolo’s, show some class and order a giant root beer float for dessert. Only sissies get the small one. We will again have the same three financial journalists lead the question-and-answer period at the meeting, asking Charlie and me questions that shareholders have submitted to them by e-mail. The journalists and their e-mail addresses are: Carol Loomis, of Fortune, who may be e-mailed at [email protected]; Becky Quick, of CNBC, at [email protected], and Andrew Ross Sorkin, of The New York Times, at [email protected]. From the questions submitted, each journalist will choose the dozen or so he or she decides are the most interesting and important. The journalists have told me your question has the best chance of being selected if you keep it concise, avoid sending it in at the last moment, make it Berkshire-related and include no more than two questions in any e-mail you send them. (In your e-mail, let the journalist know if you would like your name mentioned if your question is selected.) This year we are adding a second panel of three financial analysts who follow Berkshire. They are Cliff Gallant of KBW, Jay Gelb of Barclays Capital and Gary Ransom of Dowling and Partners. These analysts will bring their own Berkshire-specific questions and alternate with the journalists and the audience. Charlie and I believe that all shareholders should have access to new Berkshire information simultaneously and should also have adequate time to analyze it, which is why we try to issue financial information after the market close on a Friday. We do not talk one-on-one to large institutional investors or analysts. Our new panel will let analysts ask questions – perhaps even a few technical ones – in a manner that may be helpful to many shareholders. 21

查理和我对将要被问到的问题连一丁点口风都探不到。我们知道这些记者和分析师会抛出一些棘手的问题,而这正合我们的意。合计下来,我们预计至少会收到 54 个问题,这意味着每位分析师和记者各可提问 6 个,现场观众可提问 18 个。如果还有富余时间,我们会从观众中再多收一些问题。现场提问者将通过抽签决定,抽签于上午 8:15 在主场馆和主分会场的 13 个麦克风处分别进行。

Neither Charlie nor I will get so much as a clue about the questions to be asked. We know the journalists and analysts will come up with some tough ones, and that’s the way we like it. All told, we expect at least 54 questions, which will allow for six from each analyst and journalist and 18 from the audience. If there is some extra time, we will take more from the audience. Audience questioners will be determined by drawings that will take place at 8:15 a.m. at each of the 13 microphones located in the arena and main overflow room.

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我有充分的理由经常赞扬我们运营经理的成就。他们个个都是全明星,经营企业时就像那是自家唯一的家当。我相信,在大型上市公司的世界里,他们这种股东导向的心态已属顶尖。他们大多数没有经济上的必要去工作;在生意场上击出“本垒打”的乐趣,对他们而言不亚于薪水。然而,同样重要的,还有在公司总部与我共事的 23 位同事(大家都在同一层楼办公,而且我们打算一直保持下去!)。这个团队高效地应对大量证券交易委员会(SEC)及其他监管要求,报送一份多达 17,839 页的联邦所得税申报表——你好,吉尼斯世界纪录!——以及州税与外国税申报表。此外,他们还要回应数不清的股东和媒体问询,赶制年报,筹办全美规模最大的股东大会,协调董事会的各项事务——清单还能一直列下去。所有这些事务,他们都干得欢欢喜喜、效率高得惊人,让我的生活轻松又愉快。他们的付出远不止与伯克希尔直接相关的工作:他们还要跟 48 所大学(从 200 所申请学校中选出)打交道,这些学校本学年会派学生来奥马哈与我共度一天;还要处理我收到的各种请托,替我安排行程,甚至替我张罗午饭的汉堡。没有哪位首席执行官过得比我更舒坦。这个总部小班子,连同我们的运营经理们,我向他们深表感谢,他们也值得各位的感谢。5 月 5 日,来奥马哈——资本主义的摇篮——当面对他们说声谢谢吧。

For good reason, I regularly extol the accomplishments of our operating managers. They are truly All-Stars, who run their businesses as if they were the only asset owned by their families. I believe their mindset to be as shareholder-oriented as can be found in the universe of large publicly-owned companies. Most have no financial need to work; the joy of hitting business “home runs” means as much to them as their paycheck. Equally important, however, are the 23 men and women who work with me at our corporate office (all on one floor, which is the way we intend to keep it!). This group efficiently deals with a multitude of SEC and other regulatory requirements and files a 17,839-page Federal income tax return – hello, Guinness! – as well as state and foreign returns. Additionally, they respond to countless shareholder and media inquiries, get out the annual report, prepare for the country’s largest annual meeting, coordinate the Board’s activities – and the list goes on and on. They handle all of these business tasks cheerfully and with unbelievable efficiency, making my life easy and pleasant. Their efforts go beyond activities strictly related to Berkshire: They deal with 48 universities (selected from 200 applicants) who will send students to Omaha this school year for a day with me and also handle all kinds of requests that I receive, arrange my travel, and even get me hamburgers for lunch. No CEO has it better. This home office crew, along with our operating managers, has my deepest thanks and deserves yours as well. Come to Omaha – the cradle of capitalism – on May 5th and tell them so.

2012 年 2 月 25 日

February 25, 2012

沃伦·E·巴菲特,董事会主席

Warren E. Buffett Chairman of the Board

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