2012 年致股东信

致股东信 · 原文约 13552 词
译文与英文原文逐段对齐可在本页展开英文,也可打开发布者原址核对上下文。
打开来源正文

伯克希尔公司业绩与标普 500 指数比较

每股账面价值年度百分比变化

(1)伯克希尔 (2)含股息的标普 500 指数

<<<END P 1>>>

Berkshire’s Corporate Performance vs. the S&P 500 Annual Percentage Change in Per-Share in S&P 500 Book Value of with Dividends Berkshire Included (1) (2)

年份

Year

相对业绩 (1)-(2)

Relative Results (1)-(2)

伯克希尔每股账面价值与标普500(含股息)的年度百分比变化相对结果
年度(1) (2)(1)-(2)
196523.8 10.013.8
196620.3 (11.7)32.0
196711.0 30.9(19.9)
196819.0 11.08.0
196916.2 (8.4)24.6
197012.0 3.98.1
197116.4 14.61.8
197221.7 18.92.8
19734.7 (14.8)19.5
19745.5 (26.4)31.9
197521.9 37.2(15.3)
197659.3 23.635.7
197731.9 (7.4)39.3
197824.0 6.417.6
197935.7 18.217.5
198019.3 32.3(13.0)
198131.4 (5.0)36.4
198240.0 21.418.6
198332.3 22.49.9
198413.6 6.17.5
198548.2 31.616.6
198626.1 18.67.5
198719.5 5.114.4
198820.1 16.63.5
198944.4 31.712.7
19907.4 (3.1)10.5
199139.6 30.59.1
199220.3 7.612.7
199314.3 10.14.2
199413.9 1.312.6
199543.1 37.65.5
199631.8 23.08.8
199734.1 33.40.7
199848.3 28.619.7
19990.5 21.0(20.5)
20006.5 (9.1)15.6
2001(6.2) (11.9)5.7
200210.0 (22.1)32.1
200321.0 28.7(7.7)
200410.5 10.9(0.4)
20056.4 4.91.5
200618.4 15.82.6
200711.0 5.55.5
2008(9.6) (37.0)27.4
200919.8 26.5(6.7)
201013.0 15.1(2.1)
20114.6 2.12.5
201214.4 16.0(1.6)
复合年化收益率 – 1965-201219.7% 9.4%10.3
整体收益——1964-2012586,817% 7,433%
Annual Percentage Change in Per-Share in S&P 500 Book Value of with Dividends Berkshire IncludedRelative Results
Year(1) (2)(1)-(2)
196523.8 10.013.8
196620.3 (11.7)32.0
196711.0 30.9(19.9)
196819.0 11.08.0
196916.2 (8.4)24.6
197012.0 3.98.1
197116.4 14.61.8
197221.7 18.92.8
19734.7 (14.8)19.5
19745.5 (26.4)31.9
197521.9 37.2(15.3)
197659.3 23.635.7
197731.9 (7.4)39.3
197824.0 6.417.6
197935.7 18.217.5
198019.3 32.3(13.0)
198131.4 (5.0)36.4
198240.0 21.418.6
198332.3 22.49.9
198413.6 6.17.5
198548.2 31.616.6
198626.1 18.67.5
198719.5 5.114.4
198820.1 16.63.5
198944.4 31.712.7
19907.4 (3.1)10.5
199139.6 30.59.1
199220.3 7.612.7
199314.3 10.14.2
199413.9 1.312.6
199543.1 37.65.5
199631.8 23.08.8
199734.1 33.40.7
199848.3 28.619.7
19990.5 21.0(20.5)
20006.5 (9.1)15.6
2001(6.2) (11.9)5.7
200210.0 (22.1)32.1
200321.0 28.7(7.7)
200410.5 10.9(0.4)
20056.4 4.91.5
200618.4 15.82.6
200711.0 5.55.5
2008(9.6) (37.0)27.4
200919.8 26.5(6.7)
201013.0 15.1(2.1)
20114.6 2.12.5
201214.4 16.0(1.6)
Compounded Annual Gain – 1965-201219.7% 9.4%10.3
Overall Gain – 1964-2012586,817% 7,433%
19.7% 586,817%
9.4% 7,433%
10.3
19.7% 586,817%
9.4% 7,433%
10.3

注:数据按日历年度统计,但有以下例外:1965 和 1966 年截至 9 月 30 日;1967 年为 15 个月,截至 12 月 31 日。自 1979 年起,会计准则要求保险公司按市值计量其持有的权益证券,而非此前规定的成本与市价孰低法。因此,本表中伯克希尔 1978 年之前的业绩已按新规则重述;其余各项均按最初报告的数值计算。标普 500 指数的数据为税前口径,伯克希尔的数据为税后口径。假如像伯克希尔这样的公司只是简单地持有标普 500 指数并计提相应税收,那么在指数录得正回报的年份,其业绩会落后于标普 500;在指数录得负回报的年份,其业绩则会超过标普 500。日积月累,税收成本会让整体落后幅度相当可观。

Notes: Data are for calendar years with these exceptions: 1965 and 1966, year ended 9/30; 1967, 15 months ended 12/31. Starting in 1979, accounting rules required insurance companies to value the equity securities they hold at market rather than at the lower of cost or market, which was previously the requirement. In this table, Berkshire’s results through 1978 have been restated to conform to the changed rules. In all other respects, the results are calculated using the numbers originally reported. The S&P 500 numbers are pre-tax whereas the Berkshire numbers are aftertax. If a corporation such as Berkshire were simply to have owned the S&P 500 and accrued the appropriate taxes, its results would have lagged the S&P 500 in years when that index showed a positive return, but would have exceeded the S&P 500 in years when the index showed a negative return. Over the years, the tax costs would have caused the aggregate lag to be substantial.

2
2

伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.

致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股东:

To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

2012 年,伯克希尔为股东实现总收益 241 亿美元。我们动用其中 13 亿美元回购股票,当年净资产因此净增 228 亿美元。A 类股和 B 类股的每股账面价值均增长 14.4%。过去 48 年(即现任管理层接手以来),账面价值从 19 美元增长到 114,214 美元,年复合增长率 19.7%。* 去年伯克希尔发生了不少好事,但我们先把坏消息交代清楚。

In 2012, Berkshire achieved a total gain for its shareholders of $24.1 billion. We used $1.3 billion of that to repurchase our stock, which left us with an increase in net worth of $22.8 billion for the year. The per-share book value of both our Class A and Class B stock increased by 14.4%. Over the last 48 years (that is, since present management took over), book value has grown from $19 to $114,214, a rate of 19.7% compounded annually.* A number of good things happened at Berkshire last year, but let’s first get the bad news out of the way. Š

1965 年我掌管的合伙企业取得伯克希尔控股权时,我做梦也想不到,有朝一日一年盈利 241 亿美元,对照对页那张比较表,居然还算不上好成绩。可事实就是如此。48 年来第九次,伯克希尔的账面价值增幅落后于标普指数的涨幅(后者既含股价上涨,也含股息)。值得一提的是,这九年当中有八年,标普涨幅都在 15% 以上。逆风时我们反而更出色。到目前为止,我们从未有过连续五年跑输标普——43 次在五年跨度上胜出(记录见第 103 页)。但标普已连续四年上涨,这四年间跑赢了伯克希尔。若 2013 年市场继续走高,我们连续五年获胜的纪录就会终结。有一点你尽可放心:无论伯克希尔业绩如何,我和合伙人、公司副董事长查理·芒格都不会更换标尺。我们的职责,是让内在商业价值的增速快于标普指数的市场涨幅——账面价值只是它一个被严重低估的替代指标。若能做到,伯克希尔的股价虽逐年难测,长期终将跑赢标普;若做不到,我们的管理层就没给投资者带来任何价值,因为他们买一只低成本指数基金,自己就能拿到标普回报。查理和我相信,长期看,伯克希尔内在价值的增长很可能以微弱优势胜过标普。我们对此有信心,是因为手里握着一批出色的企业、一批一流的运营经理,还有一种以股东为本的文化。不过在市场下跌或走平的年份,我们的相对表现几乎肯定更好;在市场格外强劲的年份,就请做好我们落后的准备。

When the partnership I ran took control of Berkshire in 1965, I could never have dreamed that a year in which we had a gain of $24.1 billion would be subpar, in terms of the comparison we present on the facing page. But subpar it was. For the ninth time in 48 years, Berkshire’s percentage increase in book value was less than the S&P’s percentage gain (a calculation that includes dividends as well as price appreciation). In eight of those nine years, it should be noted, the S&P had a gain of 15% or more. We do better when the wind is in our face. To date, we’ve never had a five-year period of underperformance, having managed 43 times to surpass the S&P over such a stretch. (The record is on page 103.) But the S&P has now had gains in each of the last four years, outpacing us over that period. If the market continues to advance in 2013, our streak of fiveyear wins will end. One thing of which you can be certain: Whatever Berkshire’s results, my partner Charlie Munger, the company’s Vice Chairman, and I will not change yardsticks. It’s our job to increase intrinsic business value – for which we use book value as a significantly understated proxy – at a faster rate than the market gains of the S&P. If we do so, Berkshire’s share price, though unpredictable from year to year, will itself outpace the S&P over time. If we fail, however, our management will bring no value to our investors, who themselves can earn S&P returns by buying a low-cost index fund. Charlie and I believe the gain in Berkshire’s intrinsic value will over time likely surpass the S&P returns by a small margin. We’re confident of that because we have some outstanding businesses, a cadre of terrific operating managers and a shareholder-oriented culture. Our relative performance, however, is almost certain to be better when the market is down or flat. In years when the market is particularly strong, expect us to fall short.

Š

Š

2012 年第二件憾事,是我没能做成一桩大型收购。我追了几头大象,最后却两手空空。

The second disappointment in 2012 was my inability to make a major acquisition. I pursued a couple of elephants, but came up empty-handed.

本报告所用的每股数据一律以伯克希尔 A 股为准。B 股的对应数字为 A 股的 1/1500。3

  • All per-share figures used in this report apply to Berkshire’s A shares. Figures for the B shares are 1/1500th of those shown for A. 3

不过,今年年初我们转运了。2 月,我们同意买下一家控股公司 50% 的股份,这家公司将持有 H. J. 亨氏的全部股权。另一半股份将由巴西知名企业家兼慈善家豪尔赫·保罗·莱曼领衔的一小群投资者持有。能与这样出色的伙伴共事,再好不过。豪尔赫·保罗是我多年的老友,也是一位卓越的管理者。他的团队和伯克希尔将各自出资约 40 亿美元认购该控股公司的普通股。伯克希尔还将投资 80 亿美元购买股息率为 9% 的优先股。这批优先股另有两项显著提升其价值的特征:在未来的某个时点,它将以可观的溢价被赎回;此外,优先股还附带认股权证,允许我们以象征性的价格买入该控股公司 5% 的普通股。我们合计约 120 亿美元的投资,几乎用掉了伯克希尔去年赚到的大部分利润。但我们手头现金仍很充裕,而且还在快速创造更多现金。因此,该回到工作中了;查理和我再度披挂上狩猎装,重新踏上了搜寻大象的征程。

<<<END P 12>>>

Our luck, however, changed early this year. In February, we agreed to buy 50% of a holding company that will own all of H. J. Heinz. The other half will be owned by a small group of investors led by Jorge Paulo Lemann, a renowned Brazilian businessman and philanthropist. We couldn’t be in better company. Jorge Paulo is a long-time friend of mine and an extraordinary manager. His group and Berkshire will each contribute about $4 billion for common equity in the holding company. Berkshire will also invest $8 billion in preferred shares that pay a 9% dividend. The preferred has two other features that materially increase its value: at some point it will be redeemed at a significant premium price and the preferred also comes with warrants permitting us to buy 5% of the holding company’s common stock for a nominal sum. Our total investment of about $12 billion soaks up much of what Berkshire earned last year. But we still have plenty of cash and are generating more at a good clip. So it’s back to work; Charlie and I have again donned our safari outfits and resumed our search for elephants.

2012 年也有一些好消息:

Now to some good news from 2012:

Š

Š

去年我告诉过你们,伯灵顿北方圣塔菲(BNSF)、伊斯卡(Iscar)、路博润(Lubrizol)、迈蒙集团(Marmon Group)和中美能源(MidAmerican Energy)——我们旗下五家盈利最强的非保险企业——2012 年税前利润很可能超过 100 亿美元。它们兑现了。尽管美国经济增长疲弱、全球大部分地区经济走软,我们这“五强”合计盈利 101 亿美元,比 2011 年多出约 6 亿美元。这五家里,八年前就归伯克希尔所有的只有中美能源一家,当时它的税前利润是 3.93 亿美元。此后,我们又以全现金方式买下其中三家。收购第五家 BNSF 时,我们约 70% 以现金支付,余款则以发行股票的方式补足,使流通股增加了 6.1%。于是,这五家公司每年为伯克希尔贡献的 97 亿美元利润增长,只伴随极轻微的股权稀释。这正合我们的心意:不单要增长,更要提升每股业绩。除非美国经济崩盘——我们并不这么预期——我们的五强在 2013 年应会再创更高盈利,掌舵它们的五位杰出首席执行官会确保这一点。

Last year I told you that BNSF, Iscar, Lubrizol, Marmon Group and MidAmerican Energy – our five most profitable non-insurance companies – were likely to earn more than $10 billion pre-tax in 2012. They delivered. Despite tepid U.S. growth and weakening economies throughout much of the world, our “powerhouse five” had aggregate earnings of $10.1 billion, about $600 million more than in 2011. Of this group, only MidAmerican, then earning $393 million pre-tax, was owned by Berkshire eight years ago. Subsequently, we purchased another three of the five on an all-cash basis. In acquiring the fifth, BNSF, we paid about 70% of the cost in cash, and for the remainder, issued shares that increased the amount outstanding by 6.1%. Consequently, the $9.7 billion gain in annual earnings delivered Berkshire by the five companies has been accompanied by only minor dilution. That satisfies our goal of not simply growing, but rather increasing per-share results. Unless the U.S. economy tanks – which we don’t expect – our powerhouse five should again deliver higher earnings in 2013. The five outstanding CEOs who run them will see to that.

Š

Š

虽说我 2012 年没能拿下一桩大型收购,我们子公司的经理们却做得漂亮得多。“补强型”收购创下了纪录:我们斥资约 23 亿美元买入 26 家公司,尽数并入现有业务,且全程没有发行一股新股。查理和我偏爱这类收购:它们通常风险低,丝毫不给总部添麻烦,还能拓宽那些久经考验的经理人的施展空间。

Though I failed to land a major acquisition in 2012, the managers of our subsidiaries did far better. We had a record year for “bolt-on” purchases, spending about $2.3 billion for 26 companies that were melded into our existing businesses. These transactions were completed without Berkshire issuing any shares. Charlie and I love these acquisitions: Usually they are low-risk, burden headquarters not at all, and expand the scope of our proven managers.

Š

Š

我们的保险业务去年大放异彩。它们一面为伯克希尔提供 730 亿美元免费资金供投资,一面还贡献了 16 亿美元的承保利润,连续第十年实现承保盈利。这真是既能拥有蛋糕,又能吃掉蛋糕。GEICO 一马当先,在坚守承保纪律的同时不断蚕食市场份额。自 1995 年我们取得控股权以来,GEICO 在个人车险市场的份额从 2.5% 升至 9.7%,保费收入同期从 28 亿美元增至 167 亿美元,前方还有更大的增长空间。GEICO 非凡业绩的功劳,归于托尼·奈斯利和他麾下的 27,000 名同事。当然,还得算上我们那只壁虎代言人。雨也好、暴风也罢、漫漫长夜也拦不住它;这只小蜥蜴只管往前走,逢人便说去 GEICO.com 能省下一大笔钱。每当我盘点自己的福气,GEICO 我都要数上两遍。

Our insurance operations shot the lights out last year. While giving Berkshire $73 billion of free money to invest, they also delivered a $1.6 billion underwriting gain, the tenth consecutive year of profitable underwriting. This is truly having your cake and eating it too. GEICO led the way, continuing to gobble up market share without sacrificing underwriting discipline. Since 1995, when we obtained control, GEICO’s share of the personal-auto market has grown from 2.5% to 9.7%. Premium volume meanwhile increased from $2.8 billion to $16.7 billion. Much more growth lies ahead. The credit for GEICO’s extraordinary performance goes to Tony Nicely and his 27,000 associates. And to that cast, we should add our Gecko. Neither rain nor storm nor gloom of night can stop him; the little lizard just soldiers on, telling Americans how they can save big money by going to GEICO.com. When I count my blessings, I count GEICO twice.

4
4

Š

Š

托德·库姆斯(Todd Combs)和泰德·韦施勒(Ted Weschler),我们的新任投资经理,已证明自己极其聪明、堪称正直典范,在投资组合管理之外的诸多方面也对伯克希尔助益良多,且与我们的文化完美契合。招到这两位,我们算是中了头彩。2012 年,两人各自都以两位数的百分点跑赢标普 500 指数,也把我远远甩在了身后。因此,我们把两人各自管理的资金规模都提高到了近 50 亿美元(其中一部分来自子公司的养老基金)。托德和泰德还年轻,等查理和我离开很久之后,他们仍会在这里掌管伯克希尔庞大的投资组合。交到他们手上,你们尽可安枕无忧。

Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, our new investment managers, have proved to be smart, models of integrity, helpful to Berkshire in many ways beyond portfolio management, and a perfect cultural fit. We hit the jackpot with these two. In 2012 each outperformed the S&P 500 by double-digit margins. They left me in the dust as well. Consequently, we have increased the funds managed by each to almost $5 billion (some of this emanating from the pension funds of our subsidiaries). Todd and Ted are young and will be around to manage Berkshire’s massive portfolio long after Charlie and I have left the scene. You can rest easy when they take over.

Š

Š

伯克希尔年末员工总数创下 288,462 人的纪录(详见第 106 页),比上一年增加 17,604 人。但总部人手依然没变,还是 24 人。没必要搞到失控的地步。

Berkshire’s yearend employment totaled a record 288,462 (see page 106 for details), up 17,604 from last year. Our headquarters crew, however, remained unchanged at 24. No sense going crazy.

Š

Š

伯克希尔的“四大”投资——美国运通、可口可乐、IBM 和富国银行——去年都表现不错。我们在这四家公司的持股比例年内均有提高。我们增持了富国银行(持股比例从 2011 年底的 7.6% 升至 8.7%)和 IBM(从 5.5% 升至 6.0%);与此同时,可口可乐和美国运通的股票回购也推高了我们的持股比例。我们在可口可乐的权益从 8.8% 升至 8.9%,在美国运通的权益从 13.0% 升至 13.7%。伯克希尔在这四家公司的持股比例未来很可能继续上升。梅·韦斯特(Mae West)说得对:“好东西太多也可以是美妙的。”这四家公司都拥有极为出色的生意,由既有才干又心系股东的管理者经营。在伯克希尔,我们更愿意持有一家出色企业非控股但可观的股权,而不愿全资拥有一家平庸的公司。我们在资本配置上的灵活性,相较那些只把自己局限于能亲自运营的收购项目的公司,给予我们一项重大优势。按我们的年末持股数计算,2012 年这“四大”归属于我们的盈利为 39 亿美元。然而,在我们向你们报告的利润中,我们只计入了收到的股息——约 11 亿美元。但千万别搞错:那 28 亿美元未报告给你们的盈利,对我们来说,其价值丝毫不逊于我们已入账的部分。这四家公司留存的利润常被用于回购——这会提升我们在未来利润中的份额——也被用于资助通常颇为有利可图的业务机会。随着时间的推移,我们预期能从这四家被投企业获得大幅增长的盈利。如果我们判断正确,伯克希尔收到的股息会增加,而更重要的是,我们的未实现资本利得也会增加(截至年末,这四家的未实现利得合计为 267 亿美元)。

Berkshire’s “Big Four” investments – American Express, Coca-Cola, IBM and Wells Fargo – all had good years. Our ownership interest in each of these companies increased during the year. We purchased additional shares of Wells Fargo (our ownership now is 8.7% versus 7.6% at yearend 2011) and IBM (6.0% versus 5.5%). Meanwhile, stock repurchases at Coca-Cola and American Express raised our percentage ownership. Our equity in Coca-Cola grew from 8.8% to 8.9% and our interest at American Express from 13.0% to 13.7%. Berkshire’s ownership interest in all four companies is likely to increase in the future. Mae West had it right: “Too much of a good thing can be wonderful.” The four companies possess marvelous businesses and are run by managers who are both talented and shareholder-oriented. At Berkshire we much prefer owning a non-controlling but substantial portion of a wonderful business to owning 100% of a so-so business. Our flexibility in capital allocation gives us a significant advantage over companies that limit themselves only to acquisitions they can operate. Going by our yearend share count, our portion of the “Big Four’s” 2012 earnings amounted to $3.9 billion. In the earnings we report to you, however, we include only the dividends we receive – about $1.1 billion. But make no mistake: The $2.8 billion of earnings we do not report is every bit as valuable to us as what we record. The earnings that the four companies retain are often used for repurchases – which enhance our share of future earnings – and also for funding business opportunities that are usually advantageous. Over time we expect substantially greater earnings from these four investees. If we are correct, dividends to Berkshire will increase and, even more important, so will our unrealized capital gains (which, for the four, totaled $26.7 billion at yearend).

Š

Š

去年,许多 CEO 在面对资本配置决策时,把“不确定性”挂在嘴边,苦恼万分(尽管他们旗下许多企业的盈利和现金都创下了历史新高)。在伯克希尔,我们不认同这种恐惧,反而在 2012 年创纪录地投入 98 亿美元用于厂房和设备,其中约 88% 花在了美国。这比我们此前最高的 2011 年支出还高出 19%。查理和我乐于将大笔资金投入有价值的项目,不管那些评论家说什么。我们更愿意听取加里·艾伦(Gary Allan)那首新乡村歌曲里的一句词:“每场风暴终会雨停。”我们会继续把油门踩到底,2013 年的资本支出几乎肯定又要再创新高。机会在美国遍地都是。

There was a lot of hand-wringing last year among CEOs who cried “uncertainty” when faced with capitalallocation decisions (despite many of their businesses having enjoyed record levels of both earnings and cash). At Berkshire, we didn’t share their fears, instead spending a record $9.8 billion on plant and equipment in 2012, about 88% of it in the United States. That’s 19% more than we spent in 2011, our previous high. Charlie and I love investing large sums in worthwhile projects, whatever the pundits are saying. We instead heed the words from Gary Allan’s new country song, “Every Storm Runs Out of Rain.” We will keep our foot to the floor and will almost certainly set still another record for capital expenditures in 2013. Opportunities abound in America.

****

****

给我各位 CEO 同行一个想法:当然,眼下的未来是不确定的;美国自 1776 年起就一直在直面未知。区别只在于,有时人们会聚焦于那些始终存在的无数不确定性,有时又对它们视而不见(通常是因为近期风平浪静)。

A thought for my fellow CEOs: Of course, the immediate future is uncertain; America has faced the unknown since 1776. It’s just that sometimes people focus on the myriad of uncertainties that always exist while at other times they ignore them (usually because the recent past has been uneventful).

5
5

长远来看,美国企业会表现良好。股票也必将表现良好,这是确定无疑的,因为它们的命运与企业业绩挂钩。是的,周期性的挫折会出现,但投资者和管理者所置身的这场游戏,天平已严重倾向他们一方。(20 世纪里,道琼斯工业指数从 66 点涨到 11,497 点,在历经四场代价沉重的战争、一场大萧条和多次衰退之后,依然实现了令人瞠目的 17,320% 的涨幅。而且别忘了,股东们在整个世纪里还收到了可观的股息。)既然这场基本游戏如此有利,查理和我认为,试图根据塔罗牌的翻牌、“专家”的预测,或商业活动的潮起潮落来择时进出市场,是一个可怕的错误。置身局外的风险,与身处局内的风险相比,大得惊人。我自己的经历就是一个鲜明的例子:1942 年春天,美国在太平洋战区正遭受重大失利,我买入了生平第一只股票。每天的新闻头条都在报道更多挫败。即便如此,也从没人谈论不确定性;我认识的每一个美国人都相信我们终将获胜。自那段凶险岁月以来,这个国家取得的成就令人难以置信:按通胀调整后计算,人均 GDP 在 1941 年到 2012 年间增长了四倍多。在那整个时期,每一个明天都不确定过。然而,美国的命运始终清晰:不断增长的富足。如果你是一位因为短期忧虑而搁置某个重大且盈利的项目的 CEO,请给伯克希尔打电话。让我们来替你卸下包袱。

American business will do fine over time. And stocks will do well just as certainly, since their fate is tied to business performance. Periodic setbacks will occur, yes, but investors and managers are in a game that is heavily stacked in their favor. (The Dow Jones Industrials advanced from 66 to 11,497 in the 20th Century, a staggering 17,320% increase that materialized despite four costly wars, a Great Depression and many recessions. And don’t forget that shareholders received substantial dividends throughout the century as well.) Since the basic game is so favorable, Charlie and I believe it’s a terrible mistake to try to dance in and out of it based upon the turn of tarot cards, the predictions of “experts,” or the ebb and flow of business activity. The risks of being out of the game are huge compared to the risks of being in it. My own history provides a dramatic example: I made my first stock purchase in the spring of 1942 when the U.S. was suffering major losses throughout the Pacific war zone. Each day’s headlines told of more setbacks. Even so, there was no talk about uncertainty; every American I knew believed we would prevail. The country’s success since that perilous time boggles the mind: On an inflation-adjusted basis, GDP per capita more than quadrupled between 1941 and 2012. Throughout that period, every tomorrow has been uncertain. America’s destiny, however, has always been clear: ever-increasing abundance. If you are a CEO who has some large, profitable project you are shelving because of short-term worries, call Berkshire. Let us unburden you.

****

****

总而言之,查理和我希望通过以下方式提升每股内在价值:(1)增强我们众多子公司的盈利能力;(2)通过补强收购进一步增加其盈利;(3)分享我们被投企业的成长;(4)当伯克希尔股票显著低于内在价值时进行回购;以及(5)偶尔进行一宗大型收购。我们也会尽力通过极少——甚至从不——发行伯克希尔股票,来为你们争取最大化收益。这些构建模块立于坚如磐石的基础之上。一百年后,BNSF 和伯克希尔哈撒韦能源公司仍将在美国经济中扮演主要角色。此外,保险对企业和个人而言永远都是必需的——而在这个领域,没有哪家公司能比伯克希尔调配更雄厚的资源。审视这些以及其他优势,查理和我看好你们公司的发展前景。

In summary, Charlie and I hope to build per-share intrinsic value by (1) improving the earning power of our many subsidiaries; (2) further increasing their earnings through bolt-on acquisitions; (3) participating in the growth of our investees; (4) repurchasing Berkshire shares when they are available at a meaningful discount from intrinsic value; and (5) making an occasional large acquisition. We will also try to maximize results for you by rarely, if ever, issuing Berkshire shares. Those building blocks rest on a rock-solid foundation. A century hence, BNSF and MidAmerican Energy will continue to play major roles in the American economy. Insurance, moreover, will always be essential for both businesses and individuals – and no company brings greater resources to that arena than Berkshire. As we view these and other strengths, Charlie and I like your company’s prospects.

内在商业价值

Intrinsic Business Value

尽管查理和我经常谈论内在商业价值,我们却无法精确告诉你们伯克希尔股票的这一数字是多少(其他任何股票也一样)。不过,在 2010 年的年报里,我们列出了三个要素——其中一个是定性的——我们相信它们是合理估算伯克希尔内在价值的关键。那段论述已全文重印在第 104-105 页。以下是对其中两个定量因素的最新更新:2012 年,我们的每股投资额增长了 15.7%,达到 113,786 美元;我们来自保险和投资以外业务的每股税前利润,同样增长了 15.7%,达到 8,085 美元。自 1970 年以来,我们的每股投资额以 19.4% 的年复利增长,而我们的每股利润则以 20.8% 的年复利增长。过去 42 年里,伯克希尔股价的涨幅与这两项价值衡量指标的增速极为相似,这绝非巧合。查理和我乐见这两个领域都有所增长,但我们始终强调的重点将是不断构建经营利润。

As much as Charlie and I talk about intrinsic business value, we cannot tell you precisely what that number is for Berkshire shares (or, for that matter, any other stock). In our 2010 annual report, however, we laid out the three elements – one of which was qualitative – that we believe are the keys to a sensible estimate of Berkshire’s intrinsic value. That discussion is reproduced in full on pages 104-105. Here is an update of the two quantitative factors: In 2012 our per-share investments increased 15.7% to $113,786, and our per-share pre-tax earnings from businesses other than insurance and investments also increased 15.7% to $8,085. Since 1970, our per-share investments have increased at a rate of 19.4% compounded annually, and our per-share earnings figure has grown at a 20.8% clip. It is no coincidence that the price of Berkshire stock over the 42-year period has increased at a rate very similar to that of our two measures of value. Charlie and I like to see gains in both areas, but our strong emphasis will always be on building operating earnings.

****

****

现在,我们来审视我们业务的四大板块。每个板块的资产负债表和利润表特征都与其他板块截然不同。因此,把它们合在一起会妨碍分析。所以我们会将它们作为四项独立的业务来逐一呈现,这也是查理和我看待它们的方式。

Now, let’s examine the four major sectors of our operations. Each has vastly different balance sheet and income characteristics from the others. Lumping them together therefore impedes analysis. So we’ll present them as four separate businesses, which is how Charlie and I view them.

6
6

保险 我们先来看保险,这是伯克希尔的核心业务,也是多年来推动我们扩张的引擎。财产险/意外险(P/C)公司先收取保费,后支付理赔。在某些极端情形下,比如由特定工伤保险事故引发的赔付,款项支付可能跨越数十年。这种“先收钱、后付款”的模式,让我们手中持有一大笔最终会付给别人的资金——我们称之为“浮存金”。同时,我们可以用这些浮存金为伯克希尔创造投资收益。虽然个别保单和理赔来来去去,我们持有的浮存金总额相对于保费规模而言,却一直相当稳定。因此,随着我们业务增长,浮存金也随之增长。而我们增长了多少,如下表所示: 年份

Insurance Let’s look first at insurance, Berkshire’s core operation and the engine that has propelled our expansion over the years. Property-casualty (“P/C”) insurers receive premiums upfront and pay claims later. In extreme cases, such as those arising from certain workers’ compensation accidents, payments can stretch over decades. This collectnow, pay-later model leaves us holding large sums – money we call “float” – that will eventually go to others. Meanwhile, we get to invest this float for Berkshire’s benefit. Though individual policies and claims come and go, the amount of float we hold remains quite stable in relation to premium volume. Consequently, as our business grows, so does our float. And how we have grown, as the following table shows: Year

浮存金(单位:百万美元)

Float (in $ millions)

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2012
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2012

$

$

39 237 1,632 27,871 65,832 73,125
39 237 1,632 27,871 65,832 73,125

去年我告诉过你们,我们的浮存金今后可能会持平,甚至略有下降。我们的保险首席执行官们偏要证明我错了,还真的做到了——去年浮存金又增加了 25 亿美元。如今我预计 2013 年还会进一步增加。但再往后要想增长可就难了。利好的一面在于,GEICO 的浮存金几乎肯定会上涨。然而,在国民赔偿公司的再保险部门,我们手里有一批正在自然到期的合同,其浮存金正缓缓减少。若在将来某个时点浮存金真的出现下降,幅度也将极其平缓——每年最多不超过 2%。当我们的保费收入超过费用与最终损失之和时,我们就录得一笔承保利润,叠加在浮存金自身的投资收益之上。赚得这种利润时,我们不仅白用这笔钱——更妙的是,还因为持有它而收到钱。这就像你去办一笔贷款,银行反倒付你利息。遗憾的是,所有保险公司都梦想着这一美事,由此引发的竞争极其激烈,在大多数年份里,激烈到让整个财产/意外险行业整体录得大幅承保亏损。说到底,这笔亏损就是整个行业为持有浮存金付出的代价。举个例子,州立农业保险公司(State Farm)——全美遥遥领先的最大保险商,而且经营得井井有条——在截至 2011 年的十一年里,有八年录得承保亏损(其 2012 年的财务数据尚未公布)。保险业亏钱的门道数不胜数,这个行业也从未停止搜寻新门道。如本报告第一节所指出的,我们目前已连续十年实现承保盈利,这一期间的税前利润合计 186 亿美元。展望未来,我相信我们大多数年份仍然能够承保盈利。果真如此,我们的浮存金就比免费的钱还要好。那么,这样一笔颇具吸引力的浮存金,会如何影响内在价值的估算?计算伯克希尔的账面价值时,浮存金全额作为负债扣除,就好像我们明天就必须把它付清,而且再也无法补充。但这是看待浮存金的错误方式——它应当被看作一笔循环基金。如果浮存金既无成本又能长久存续,而我相信伯克希尔的正是如此,那么这笔负债的真实价值,便远低于会计账上的负债。有一项因素部分抵消了这一被高估的负债,即归属于我们保险公司的 155 亿美元“商誉”,它以资产形式计入了账面价值。实际上,这笔商誉代表了我们为保险业务创造浮存金的能力所支付的对价。然而,商誉的成本与其真实价值没有关系。举个例子,若一家保险公司持续录得巨额且长久的承保亏损,那么无论当初花了多少钱,账上的任何商誉资产都应被认定一文不值。

Last year I told you that our float was likely to level off or even decline a bit in the future. Our insurance CEOs set out to prove me wrong and did, increasing float last year by $2.5 billion. I now expect a further increase in 2013. But further gains will be tough to achieve. On the plus side, GEICO’s float will almost certainly grow. In National Indemnity’s reinsurance division, however, we have a number of run-off contracts whose float drifts downward. If we do experience a decline in float at some future time, it will be very gradual – at the outside no more than 2% in any year. If our premiums exceed the total of our expenses and eventual losses, we register an underwriting profit that adds to the investment income our float produces. When such a profit is earned, we enjoy the use of free money – and, better yet, get paid for holding it. That’s like your taking out a loan and having the bank pay you interest. Unfortunately, the wish of all insurers to achieve this happy result creates intense competition, so vigorous in most years that it causes the P/C industry as a whole to operate at a significant underwriting loss. This loss, in effect, is what the industry pays to hold its float. For example, State Farm, by far the country’s largest insurer and a well-managed company besides, incurred an underwriting loss in eight of the eleven years ending in 2011. (Their financials for 2012 are not yet available.) There are a lot of ways to lose money in insurance, and the industry never ceases searching for new ones. As noted in the first section of this report, we have now operated at an underwriting profit for ten consecutive years, our pre-tax gain for the period having totaled $18.6 billion. Looking ahead, I believe we will continue to underwrite profitably in most years. If we do, our float will be better than free money. So how does our attractive float affect the calculations of intrinsic value? When Berkshire’s book value is calculated, the full amount of our float is deducted as a liability, just as if we had to pay it out tomorrow and were unable to replenish it. But that’s an incorrect way to look at float, which should instead be viewed as a revolving fund. If float is both costless and long-enduring, which I believe Berkshire’s will be, the true value of this liability is dramatically less than the accounting liability. A partial offset to this overstated liability is $15.5 billion of “goodwill” that is attributable to our insurance companies and included in book value as an asset. In effect, this goodwill represents the price we paid for the floatgenerating capabilities of our insurance operations. The cost of the goodwill, however, has no bearing on its true value. For example, if an insurance business sustains large and prolonged underwriting losses, any goodwill asset carried on the books should be deemed valueless, whatever its original cost.

7
7

所幸伯克希尔并非这种情况。查理和我认为,我们保险商誉的真实经济价值——也就是我们愿意欣然支付、去买下一家能产生同等品质浮存金的保险业务的价格——远远高于其历史账面价值。浮存金的价值,正是我们相信伯克希尔的内在商业价值大幅超过其账面价值的原因之一——而且是分量极重的一个。请容我再次强调:无成本的浮存金,并非整个财产/意外险行业可以指望的常态:保险界中,能算得上“伯克希尔品质”的浮存金少之又少。在截至 2011 年的 45 年间,有 37 年整个行业的保费收入都不足以覆盖赔付加费用。因此,几十年来,整个行业的有形净资产回报率,一直远低于美国工业的平均水平,这一惨淡表现几乎注定会持续下去。另有一个令人不快的现实,让行业本就黯淡的前景更添阴云:目前,保险公司的盈利仍受益于“遗留”下来的债券组合,其收益率远高于未来数年——甚至未来更长时间——资金再投资时所能获得的收益。当下的债券组合,实际上就是不断损耗的资产。随着债券到期并展期续投,保险公司的盈利将受到显著打击。

Fortunately, that’s not the case at Berkshire. Charlie and I believe the true economic value of our insurance goodwill – what we would happily pay to purchase an insurance operation producing float of similar quality – to be far in excess of its historic carrying value. The value of our float is one reason – a huge reason – why we believe Berkshire’s intrinsic business value substantially exceeds its book value. Let me emphasize once again that cost-free float is not an outcome to be expected for the P/C industry as a whole: There is very little “Berkshire-quality” float existing in the insurance world. In 37 of the 45 years ending in 2011, the industry’s premiums have been inadequate to cover claims plus expenses. Consequently, the industry’s overall return on tangible equity has for many decades fallen far short of the average return realized by American industry, a sorry performance almost certain to continue. A further unpleasant reality adds to the industry’s dim prospects: Insurance earnings are now benefitting from “legacy” bond portfolios that deliver much higher yields than will be available when funds are reinvested during the next few years – and perhaps for many years beyond that. Today’s bond portfolios are, in effect, wasting assets. Earnings of insurers will be hurt in a significant way as bonds mature and are rolled over.

****

****

伯克希尔拥有如此出色的经济表现,仅仅是因为我们有一批极为出色的经理人,打理着几家非凡的保险业务。容我逐一介绍主要的业务单元。按浮存金规模排序,居首的是由阿吉特·贾恩(Ajit Jain)执掌的伯克希尔·哈撒韦再保险集团。阿吉特承保的风险,是别人既没有意愿、也没有资本去承担的风险。他的业务将承保能力、速度、决断力,以及最关键的一点——智慧,以保险业中独一无二的方式融为一体。然而,他从不将伯克希尔暴露在与我们的资源不相称的风险之中。事实上,在规避风险方面,我们远比大多数大型保险商更为保守。举例来说,如果保险业因某一巨灾遭受 2500 亿美元的损失——这一金额大约是历史上最严重损失的三倍——伯克希尔整体上仍可能在这一年录得可观的利润,因为我们有太多条盈利流。与此同时,其他所有大型保险商和再保险商都将深陷严重亏损,其中一些还会面临资不抵债。从 1985 年白手起家,阿吉特创建起一家浮存金达 350 亿美元、并录得显著累计承保利润的保险事业,这一壮举是其他保险业首席执行官无人能望其项背的。就这样,他为伯克希尔的价值增添了好几百亿美元。如果你在股东大会上遇见阿吉特,请深深一鞠躬。

Berkshire’s outstanding economics exist only because we have some terrific managers running some extraordinary insurance operations. Let me tell you about the major units. First by float size is the Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group, run by Ajit Jain. Ajit insures risks that no one else has the desire or the capital to take on. His operation combines capacity, speed, decisiveness and, most important, brains in a manner unique in the insurance business. Yet he never exposes Berkshire to risks that are inappropriate in relation to our resources. Indeed, we are far more conservative in avoiding risk than most large insurers. For example, if the insurance industry should experience a $250 billion loss from some mega-catastrophe – a loss about triple anything it has ever experienced – Berkshire as a whole would likely record a significant profit for the year because it has so many streams of earnings. All other major insurers and reinsurers would meanwhile be far in the red, with some facing insolvency. From a standing start in 1985, Ajit has created an insurance business with float of $35 billion and a significant cumulative underwriting profit, a feat that no other insurance CEO has come close to matching. He has thus added a great many billions of dollars to the value of Berkshire. If you meet Ajit at the annual meeting, bow deeply.

****

****

我们还有另一座再保险重镇——通用再保险(General Re),由泰德·蒙特罗斯(Tad Montross)执掌。归根结底,一家健全的保险业务必须恪守四条准则。它必须:(1)看清所有可能导致保单承担损失的风险敞口;(2)保守评估任一风险敞口实际造成损失的可能性,以及一旦发生损失,可能付出的代价;(3)设定一个保费水平,使其在覆盖预期赔付成本和运营费用之后,平均而言仍能带来盈利;(4)如果拿不到合理的保费,要敢于转身离开。许多保险公司通过了前三关,却在第四关栽了跟头。它们就是无法对同行正在争抢的生意视而不见。“别人都在做,我们也不能不做”这句老话,在哪个行业都是麻烦,但在保险业,再没有比这更严重的了。

We have another reinsurance powerhouse in General Re, managed by Tad Montross. At bottom, a sound insurance operation needs to adhere to four disciplines. It must (1) understand all exposures that might cause a policy to incur losses; (2) conservatively assess the likelihood of any exposure actually causing a loss and the probable cost if it does; (3) set a premium that, on average, will deliver a profit after both prospective loss costs and operating expenses are covered; and (4) be willing to walk away if the appropriate premium can’t be obtained. Many insurers pass the first three tests and flunk the fourth. They simply can’t turn their back on business that is being eagerly written by their competitors. That old line, “The other guy is doing it, so we must as well,” spells trouble in any business, but none more so than insurance.

8
8

泰德把这四条保险戒律都恪守下来,其成果也说明了一切。在他的领导下,通用再保险的巨额浮存金一直好过无成本,我们预计,平均而言,这种状况还会持续下去。我们尤其看好通用再保险的国际人寿再保险业务,自 1998 年我们收购该公司以来,这块业务始终保持着稳定且盈利的增长。

Tad has observed all four of the insurance commandments, and it shows in his results. General Re’s huge float has been better than cost-free under his leadership, and we expect that, on average, it will continue to be. We are particularly enthusiastic about General Re’s international life reinsurance business, which has achieved consistent and profitable growth since we acquired the company in 1998.

****

****

最后要说的是 GEICO,我 62 年前就是在这家保险公司初试身手的。GEICO 由托尼·奈斯利(Tony Nicely)执掌,他 18 岁加入公司,到 2012 年已经服务了 51 年。看着托尼的成就,我简直难以置信。需要指出的是,去年他的成绩,远比 GEICO 按美国通用会计准则(GAAP)计算出的 6.8 亿美元承保利润所显示的要好得多。由于年初一项会计准则变更,我们对 GEICO 的承保利润计入了 4.1 亿美元的费用。这笔费用与 2012 年的经营业绩毫无关系,既没有改变现金、收入、费用,也没有改变税收。实际上,这笔减记只是把 GEICO 的内在价值与我们账上列示的价值之间本已巨大的差距,进一步拉大了。再者,GEICO 是在遭遇了公司史上最大单笔损失的情况下,仍然赚得这些承保利润的。罪魁祸首是飓风桑迪,它给 GEICO 带来的损失,是之前纪录保持者卡特里娜飓风的三倍以上。我们共有 46,906 辆受保车辆在风暴中损毁或受损,这个惊人的数字,反映出 GEICO 在纽约大都会地区领先的市场份额。去年,GEICO 在既有保单持有人的续保率(“持续率”)和询价转化率(“成交率”)上均有显著提升。这两个因素牵涉着巨额价值:持续率哪怕只稳稳提升一个百分点,内在价值就能增加超过 10 亿美元。GEICO 在 2012 年的这些收获有力地证明:当人们查一查它的报价时,通常会发现能省下一大笔钱。(请拨打 1-800-847-7536 或访问 GEICO.com 试试看。务必提及你是伯克希尔股东;这一身份通常能带来折扣。)

Finally, there is GEICO, the insurer on which I cut my teeth 62 years ago. GEICO is run by Tony Nicely, who joined the company at 18 and completed 51 years of service in 2012. I rub my eyes when I look at what Tony has accomplished. Last year, it should be noted, his record was considerably better than is indicated by GEICO’s GAAP underwriting profit of $680 million. Because of a change in accounting rules at the beginning of the year, we recorded a charge to GEICO’s underwriting earnings of $410 million. This item had nothing to do with 2012’s operating results, changing neither cash, revenues, expenses nor taxes. In effect, the writedown simply widened the already huge difference between GEICO’s intrinsic value and the value at which we carry it on our books. GEICO earned its underwriting profit, moreover, despite the company suffering its largest single loss in history. The cause was Hurricane Sandy, which cost GEICO more than three times the loss it sustained from Katrina, the previous record-holder. We insured 46,906 vehicles that were destroyed or damaged in the storm, a staggering number reflecting GEICO’s leading market share in the New York metropolitan area. Last year GEICO enjoyed a meaningful increase in both the renewal rate for existing policyholders (“persistency”) and in the percentage of rate quotations that resulted in sales (“closures”). Big dollars ride on those two factors: A sustained gain in persistency of a bare one percentage point increases intrinsic value by more than $1 billion. GEICO’s gains in 2012 offer dramatic proof that when people check the company’s prices, they usually find they can save important sums. (Give us a try at 1-800-847-7536 or GEICO.com. Be sure to mention that you are a shareholder; that fact will usually result in a discount.)

****

****

除了三大主要保险业务,我们还拥有一批规模较小的公司,大多在保险业的犄角旮旯里做着自己的生意。总体而言,这些公司一直稳定地贡献着承保利润。此外,正如下表所示,它们也为我们提供了可观的浮存金。查理和我珍视这些公司以及它们的经理人。2012 年末,我们通过收购 Guard Insurance,进一步壮大了这个群体。这家位于威尔克斯-巴里的公司承做工伤保险,主要服务中小企业,年保费总额约 3 亿美元。无论是传统业务,还是它新开始拓展的业务线,该公司都展现出极好的增长前景。

In addition to our three major insurance operations, we own a group of smaller companies, most of them plying their trade in odd corners of the insurance world. In aggregate, these companies have consistently delivered an underwriting profit. Moreover, as the table below shows, they also provide us with substantial float. Charlie and I treasure these companies and their managers. Late in 2012, we enlarged this group by acquiring Guard Insurance, a Wilkes-Barre company that writes workers compensation insurance, primarily for smaller businesses. Guard’s annual premiums total about $300 million. The company has excellent prospects for growth in both its traditional business and new lines it has begun to offer.

承保利润(百万)年末浮动
保险运营2012201120122011
BH再保险$ 304$(714)$34,821$33,728
通用再保险公司35514420,12819,714
GEICO680*57611,57811,169
其他主要业务2862426,5985,960
$1,625$ 248$73,125$70,571
Underwriting Profit(in millions)Yearend Float
Insurance Operations2012201120122011
BH Reinsurance$ 304$(714)$34,821$33,728
General Re35514420,12819,714
GEICO680*57611,57811,169
Other Primary2862426,5985,960
$1,625$ 248$73,125$70,571

*因一次全行业会计准则变更,从盈利中扣除了 4.1 亿美元费用。在大型保险业务中,伯克希尔的保险业务在我看来是全球最出色的。1967 年 3 月,杰克·林沃特(Jack Ringwalt)将他那两家财产意外险公司以 860 万美元卖给我们,那真是我们的幸运日。

*After a $410 million charge against earnings arising from an industry-wide accounting change. Among large insurance operations, Berkshire’s impresses me as the best in the world. It was our lucky day when, in March 1967, Jack Ringwalt sold us his two property-casualty insurers for $8.6 million.

9
9

受监管的资本密集型业务

我们有两项主要业务——BNSF 铁路公司和中美能源公司——它们有一些重要的共同特征,使其区别于我们的其他业务。因此,我们在本信中为它们单辟一节,并在 GAAP 资产负债表和利润表中将它们的合并财务数据单独列示。两家公司的一个关键共同点是,它们在寿命极长的受监管资产上投入了巨额资金,而这些资产部分由伯克希尔不提供担保的大额长期债务融资。事实上,我们并不需要动用自身的信用,因为两家业务都拥有即便在极端恶劣条件下也足以从容覆盖利息支出的盈利能力。以去年疲软的经济为例,BNSF 的利息覆盖倍数就达到 9.6 倍。(我们对覆盖倍数的定义是税前利润/利息,而非 EBITDA/利息——后者是常用的衡量指标,我们却认为它有严重缺陷。)在中美能源方面,有两个关键因素确保它在任何环境下都能偿债:一是公司抗衰退的盈利能力,这源于我们独家提供一项必不可少的服务;二是其收入来源极为多元化,使其不会因某个监管机构的单方面行动而受到严重冲击。每一天,这两家子公司都在以举足轻重的方式驱动着美国经济:

Regulated, Capital-Intensive Businesses We have two major operations, BNSF and MidAmerican Energy, that have important common characteristics distinguishing them from our other businesses. Consequently, we assign them their own section in this letter and split out their combined financial statistics in our GAAP balance sheet and income statement. A key characteristic of both companies is their huge investment in very long-lived, regulated assets, with these partially funded by large amounts of long-term debt that is not guaranteed by Berkshire. Our credit is in fact not needed because each business has earning power that even under terrible conditions amply covers its interest requirements. In last year’s tepid economy, for example, BNSF’s interest coverage was 9.6x. (Our definition of coverage is pre-tax earnings/interest, not EBITDA/interest, a commonly-used measure we view as deeply flawed.) At MidAmerican, meanwhile, two key factors ensure its ability to service debt under all circumstances: the company’s recession-resistant earnings, which result from our exclusively offering an essential service, and its great diversity of earnings streams, which shield it from being seriously harmed by any single regulatory body. Every day, our two subsidiaries power the American economy in major ways: Š

按吨英里计,在全美城际货运总量中——无论是通过卡车、铁路、水运、空运还是管道运输——BNSF 承运了约 15%。事实上,我们承运的货物吨英里数超过其他任何一家运输公司,这使 BNSF 成为美国经济循环系统中最重要的大动脉。此外,BNSF 还以极为节油且环保的方式运输货物,一加仑柴油即可将一吨货物运送约 500 英里。而卡车完成同样的任务,耗油量约为铁路的四倍。

BNSF carries about 15% (measured by ton-miles) of all inter-city freight, whether it is transported by truck, rail, water, air, or pipeline. Indeed, we move more ton-miles of goods than anyone else, a fact making BNSF the most important artery in our economy’s circulatory system. BNSF also moves its cargo in an extraordinarily fuel-efficient and environmentally friendly way, carrying a ton of freight about 500 miles on a single gallon of diesel fuel. Trucks taking on the same job guzzle about four times as much fuel.

Š

Š

中美能源旗下的电力公司为十个州的受监管零售客户供电。只有一家公用事业控股公司服务的州数比它更多。此外,我们在可再生能源领域也居于领先地位:首先,九年前从零起步,如今我们已拥有全美风电装机容量的 6%。其次,等到目前在建的三个项目完工,我们将拥有全美太阳能发电装机容量的约 14%。

MidAmerican’s electric utilities serve regulated retail customers in ten states. Only one utility holding company serves more states. In addition, we are the leader in renewables: first, from a standing start nine years ago, we now account for 6% of the country’s wind generation capacity. Second, when we complete three projects now under construction, we will own about 14% of U.S. solar-generation capacity.

这类项目需要巨额资本投入。事实上,待到全部建成,我们的可再生能源组合将累计耗资 130 亿美元。只要这些投入有望带来合理回报,我们就乐于做出如此规模的承诺——在这方面,我们对未来的监管抱有极大的信心。我们的信心既来自过往经验,也基于这样一个认知:社会将永远需要在大规模交通和能源项目上进行巨额投资。以能够确保资金持续流向关键项目的方式对待资本提供者,符合政府自身的利益。而以能够赢得监管机构及其所代表民众认可的方式经营,也符合我们自身的利益。我们的管理者必须今天就去思考这个国家在长远未来需要什么。能源和交通项目从规划到落地往往需耗时多年;一个处于成长中的国家,根本承受不起落后于时代的代价。我们一直在尽自己的努力,确保这一幕不会发生。无论你听到过多少关于美国基础设施破败不堪的议论,那都绝不适用于 BNSF 或整个铁路行业。美国的铁路系统从未像今天这样状况优良,这是全行业巨额投资的成果。不过,我们并未躺在功劳簿上:2013 年,BNSF 将在这条铁路上投入约 40 亿美元,大约是当年折旧费用的两倍,也超过了任何一家铁路公司有史以来单个年度的资本支出。

Projects like these require huge capital investments. Upon completion, indeed, our renewables portfolio will have cost $13 billion. We relish making such commitments if they promise reasonable returns – and on that front, we put a large amount of trust in future regulation. Our confidence is justified both by our past experience and by the knowledge that society will forever need massive investment in both transportation and energy. It is in the self-interest of governments to treat capital providers in a manner that will ensure the continued flow of funds to essential projects. And it is in our self-interest to conduct our operations in a manner that earns the approval of our regulators and the people they represent. Our managers must think today of what the country will need far down the road. Energy and transportation projects can take many years to come to fruition; a growing country simply can’t afford to get behind the curve. We have been doing our part to make sure that doesn’t happen. Whatever you may have heard about our country’s crumbling infrastructure in no way applies to BNSF or railroads generally. America’s rail system has never been in better shape, a consequence of huge investments by the industry. We are not, however, resting on our laurels: BNSF will spend about $4 billion on the railroad in 2013, roughly double its depreciation charge and more than any railroad has spent in a single year.

10
10

在 BNSF 的 Matt Rose 和中美能源的 Greg Abel 身上,我们拥有两位杰出的首席执行官。他们是卓越的管理者,打造出的企业既用心服务客户,也用心回报股东。我对他们心怀感激,你们也理应如此。以下是他们所经营业务的主要数据:中美能源(持股 89.8%)

In Matt Rose, at BNSF, and Greg Abel, at MidAmerican, we have two outstanding CEOs. They are extraordinary managers who have developed businesses that serve both their customers and owners well. Each has my gratitude and each deserves yours. Here are the key figures for their businesses: MidAmerican (89.8% owned)

收益(单位:百万美元) 2012 2011

Earnings (in millions) 2012 2011

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

英国公用事业 爱荷华州公用事业 西部公用事业 管道业务 HomeServices 其他(净额) 支付公司利息与所得税前经营利润 利息 所得税 净利润

U.K. utilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Iowa utility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Western utilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Pipelines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . HomeServices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other (net) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Operating earnings before corporate interest and taxes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Interest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Income taxes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Net earnings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

$

$

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

429 236 737 383 82 91 1,958 314 172 $ 1,472
429 236 737 383 82 91 1,958 314 172 $ 1,472

$

$

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

归属于伯克希尔的收益

Earnings applicable to Berkshire . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

$ 1,323
$ 1,204
$ 1,323
$ 1,204

BNSF

BNSF

收益(单位:百万美元) 2012 2011

Earnings (in millions) 2012 2011

MidAmerican(持股89.8%)收益(百万美元)
2012 2011
英国公用事业$ 429 $ 469
爱荷华公用事业236 279
西部公用事业737 771
管道383 388
家居服务82 39
其他(净额)91 36
公司利息及税前经营收益1,958 1,982
利息314 336
所得税172 315
净利润$ 1,472 $ 1,331
归属于伯克希尔的收益$ 1,323 $ 1,204
BNSF收益(百万美元)
2012 2011
营业收入$20,835 $19,548
经营费用14,835 14,247
利息及税前经营收益6,000 5,301
利息(净额)623 560
所得税2,005 1,769
净利润$ 3,372 $ 2,972
MidAmerican (89.8% owned)Earnings (in millions)
2012 2011
U.K. utilities$ 429 $ 469
Iowa utility236 279
Western utilities737 771
Pipelines383 388
HomeServices82 39
Other (net)91 36
Operating earnings before corporate interest and taxes1,958 1,982
Interest314 336
Income taxes172 315
Net earnings$ 1,472 $ 1,331
Earnings applicable to Berkshire$ 1,323 $ 1,204
BNSFEarnings (in millions)
2012 2011
Revenues$20,835 $19,548
Operating expenses14,835 14,247
Operating earnings before interest and taxes6,000 5,301
Interest (net)623 560
Income taxes2,005 1,769
Net earnings$ 3,372 $ 2,972

眼尖的读者会注意到中美能源收益表中有个不太协调的地方。HomeServices,一家房地产经纪公司,究竟跑到“受监管的资本密集型业务”这一节里做什么?嗯,它的所有权是我们 2000 年取得中美能源控股权时一并带来的。当时,我把注意力全部集中在中美能源的公用事业业务上,几乎没怎么留意 HomeServices,它那时只拥有寥寥几家房地产经纪公司。然而自那以后,这家公司不断并购住宅经纪商——仅 2012 年就新增了三家——如今大约拥有 16,000 名经纪人,遍布美国一连串主要城市。(我们旗下的房地产经纪公司名单见第 107 页。)2012 年,我们的经纪人参与了价值 420 亿美元的房屋销售,较 2011 年增长 33%。此外,HomeServices 去年还收购了 Prudential 和 Real Living 特许经营业务 67% 的权益,这两家合在一起在全国授权了 544 家经纪公司,并从它们的销售额中收取少量特许权使用费。我们已经约定在五年内买断这些业务的剩余权益。今后几年,我们将逐步把旗下加盟商以及自有的特许经营公司统一重塑为“Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices”品牌。在市场低迷的时期,Ron Peltier 把 HomeServices 打理得相当出色。如今,随着楼市持续走强,我们预计其盈利将大幅增长。

Sharp-eyed readers will notice an incongruity in the MidAmerican earnings tabulation. What in the world is HomeServices, a real estate brokerage operation, doing in a section entitled “Regulated, Capital-Intensive Businesses?” Well, its ownership came with MidAmerican when we bought control of that company in 2000. At that time, I focused on MidAmerican’s utility operations and barely noticed HomeServices, which then owned only a few real estate brokerage companies. Since then, however, the company has regularly added residential brokers – three in 2012 – and now has about 16,000 agents in a string of major U.S. cities. (Our real estate brokerage companies are listed on page 107.) In 2012, our agents participated in $42 billion of home sales, up 33% from 2011. Additionally, HomeServices last year purchased 67% of the Prudential and Real Living franchise operations, which together license 544 brokerage companies throughout the country and receive a small royalty on their sales. We have an arrangement to purchase the balance of those operations within five years. In the coming years, we will gradually rebrand both our franchisees and the franchise firms we own as Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices. Ron Peltier has done an outstanding job in managing HomeServices during a depressed period. Now, as the housing market continues to strengthen, we expect earnings to rise significantly.

11
11

制造、服务和零售业务

我们在伯克希尔这一板块的经营,覆盖范围极广。不过,我们还是先来看看整个集团的汇总资产负债表和利润表。

资产负债表 2012 年 12 月 31 日(单位:百万美元)

Manufacturing, Service and Retailing Operations Our activities in this part of Berkshire cover the waterfront. Let’s look, though, at a summary balance sheet and earnings statement for the entire group. Balance Sheet 12/31/12 (in millions)

资产

Assets

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

现金及等价物 应收账款及票据 存货 其他流动资产 流动资产合计 商誉及其他无形资产 固定资产 其他资产

Cash and equivalents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Accounts and notes receivable . . . . . . . Inventory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other current assets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Total current assets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Goodwill and other intangibles . . . . . . Fixed assets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other assets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

$ 5,338 7,382 9,675 734 23,129 26,017 18,871 3,416 $71,433
$ 5,338 7,382 9,675 734 23,129 26,017 18,871 3,416 $71,433

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

负债与股东权益

应付票据 其他流动负债 流动负债合计

Liabilities and Equity Notes payable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other current liabilities . . . . . . . . Total current liabilities . . . . . . . .

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

递延所得税 定期债务及其他负债 非控制性权益 伯克希尔股东权益

Deferred taxes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Term debt and other liabilities . . Non-controlling interests . . . . . . Berkshire equity . . . . . . . . . . . . .

$ 1,454 8,527 9,981
4,907 5,826 2,062 48,657 $71,433
$ 1,454 8,527 9,981
4,907 5,826 2,062 48,657 $71,433

利润表(单位:百万美元) 2012

Earnings Statement (in millions) 2012

2011*
2010
2011*
2010

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

收入 $83,255

营业费用 76,978

利息支出

Revenues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $83,255 Operating expenses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76,978 Interest expense . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

146
146

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

税前利润

Pre-tax earnings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

6,131
6,131

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

所得税和非控股权益

Income taxes and non-controlling interests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2,432
2,432

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

净利润 $ 3,699

*包括路博润自 9 月 16 日起的盈利。

Net earnings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 3,699 *Includes earnings of Lubrizol from September 16.

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

$72,406 67,239 130 5,037 1,998 $ 3,039
$66,610 62,225 111 4,274 1,812 $ 2,462
$72,406 67,239 130 5,037 1,998 $ 3,039
$66,610 62,225 111 4,274 1,812 $ 2,462

我们按通用会计准则(GAAP)编制的收入与费用数据见第 29 页。相比之下,上表中的运营支出为非 GAAP 口径,尤其是剔除了部分购买法会计项目,主要是某些无形资产的摊销。之所以这样列示,是因为查理和我认为,调整后的数字更能真实反映表中汇总各企业的实际费用与利润。我不打算逐一解释这些调整——有些细枝末节又晦涩——但严肃的投资者应当明白无形资产的不同性质:有些确实会随时间损耗,有些则永不贬值。以软件为例,其摊销是货真价实的费用;而另一些无形资产的摊销——比如客户关系摊销——则是购买法会计规则的产物,显然算不上真实费用。GAAP 会计对这两类费用不加区分,也就是说,计算利润时两者都记作费用——尽管从投资者的角度看,它们天差地别。在第 29 页那份符合 GAAP 的数据里,本节所含公司共有 6 亿美元摊销费用被当作支出扣除。我们认为其中约 20% 是“真实的”——事实上,上表已把这部分计入——其余则不然。这道差异因为我们的众多收购已变得举足轻重。“非真实”摊销费用,在我们几家主要被投企业身上也颇为显著。IBM 近年做了许多小型收购,如今会定期公布“调整后经营利润”,这一非 GAAP 数字剔除了若干购买法调整。分析师们盯着这个数看,也理应如此。

Our income and expense data conforming to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (“GAAP”) is on page 29. In contrast, the operating expense figures above are non-GAAP. In particular, they exclude some purchase-accounting items, primarily the amortization of certain intangible assets. We present the data in this manner because Charlie and I believe the adjusted numbers more accurately reflect the real expenses and profits of the businesses aggregated in the table. I won’t explain all of the adjustments – some are small and arcane – but serious investors should understand the disparate nature of intangible assets: Some truly deplete over time while others never lose value. With software, for example, amortization charges are very real expenses. Charges against other intangibles such as the amortization of customer relationships, however, arise through purchase-accounting rules and are clearly not real expenses. GAAP accounting draws no distinction between the two types of charges. Both, that is, are recorded as expenses when calculating earnings – even though from an investor’s viewpoint they could not be more different. In the GAAP-compliant figures we show on page 29, amortization charges of $600 million for the companies included in this section are deducted as expenses. We would call about 20% of these “real” – and indeed that is the portion we have included in the table above – and the rest not. This difference has become significant because of the many acquisitions we have made. “Non-real” amortization expense also looms large at some of our major investees. IBM has made many small acquisitions in recent years and now regularly reports “adjusted operating earnings,” a non-GAAP figure that excludes certain purchase-accounting adjustments. Analysts focus on this number, as they should.

12
12

不过,富国银行也有一笔“非真实”摊销费用,公司从不特意点明,据我所知,分析师报告里也从未提起。富国银行呈报的利润,被一笔“核心存款摊销”压得很重,仿佛这些存款正以相当快的速度流失。可实际上,核心存款一直在增长。去年这笔费用约 15 亿美元。除了在 GAAP 会计的意义上,这笔巨额支出无论如何都算不上费用。今天的会计课就上到这里。怎么没人喊一嗓子“再来点,再来点”呢?

A “non-real” amortization charge at Wells Fargo, however, is not highlighted by the company and never, to my knowledge, has been noted in analyst reports. The earnings that Wells Fargo reports are heavily burdened by an “amortization of core deposits” charge, the implication being that these deposits are disappearing at a fairly rapid clip. Yet core deposits regularly increase. The charge last year was about $1.5 billion. In no sense, except GAAP accounting, is this whopping charge an expense. And that ends today’s accounting lecture. Why is no one shouting “More, more?”

****

****

这个板块里的公司五花八门,卖的东西从棒棒糖到喷气式飞机应有尽有。其中一些生意的经济效益极佳——以无杠杆净有形资产的税后回报率衡量,能从 25% 一直到 100% 以上;另一些也能有 12% 到 20% 的不错回报。但也有几家回报率极低,那是我在资本配置这份差事上犯下几桩大错的结果。五十多年前,查理就对我说过:用公道的价钱买一家出色的企业,远胜过用出色的价钱买一家平庸的企业。他的道理无可辩驳,可我偶尔还是会犯老毛病、去捡便宜货,结果从勉强能忍到糟糕透顶都有。所幸,我的失手大多发生在小额收购上;大宗收购总体都做得不错,有几桩还远超预期。所以,把这一群公司当成一个整体来看,它们合起来是一门相当出色的生意。它们动用了 226 亿美元净有形资产,在此基础上录得 16.3% 的税后回报率。当然,再好的生意,买价过高也会沦为一笔糟糕的投资。我们收购大多数企业时,都为超出净有形资产的部分付了可观的溢价,这笔成本体现在账上那一大笔无形资产里。但总的来说,我们在这一板块投下的资本,回报还算体面;而且这些企业内在价值的总和,远高于其账面价值。即便如此,保险板块和受监管行业板块里,内在价值与账面价值之间的鸿沟还要大得多——真正的巨额赢家,就藏在那里。

The crowd of companies in this section sell products ranging from lollipops to jet airplanes. Some of the businesses enjoy terrific economics, measured by earnings on unleveraged net tangible assets that run from 25% after-tax to more than 100%. Others produce good returns in the area of 12-20%. A few, however, have very poor returns, a result of some serious mistakes I made in my job of capital allocation. More than 50 years ago, Charlie told me that it was far better to buy a wonderful business at a fair price than to buy a fair business at a wonderful price. Despite the compelling logic of his position, I have sometimes reverted to my old habit of bargain-hunting, with results ranging from tolerable to terrible. Fortunately, my mistakes have usually occurred when I made smaller purchases. Our large acquisitions have generally worked out well and, in a few cases, more than well. Viewed as a single entity, therefore, the companies in this group are an excellent business. They employ $22.6 billion of net tangible assets and, on that base, earned 16.3% after-tax. Of course, a business with terrific economics can be a bad investment if the price paid is excessive. We have paid substantial premiums to net tangible assets for most of our businesses, a cost that is reflected in the large figure we show for intangible assets. Overall, however, we are getting a decent return on the capital we have deployed in this sector. Furthermore, the intrinsic value of the businesses, in aggregate, exceeds their carrying value by a good margin. Even so, the difference between intrinsic value and carrying value in the insurance and regulatedindustry segments is far greater. It is there that the huge winners reside.

****

****

马蒙集团(Marmon)就是账面价值与内在价值之间存在明显巨大差距的一个例子,容我说说这道差距的离奇由来。去年我告诉过你们,我们增持了马蒙的股份,持股比例升至 80%(此前 2008 年收购的是 64%)。我还说过,按 GAAP 会计的要求,我们必须把 2011 年这笔增持,以远低于实付价的金额立即记账。这条古怪的会计规则,我琢磨了整整一年,仍找不出一个说得通的解释——查理、还有我们的首席财务官马克·哈姆伯格,也同样想不明白。更叫我糊涂的是,有人告诉我:假如我们此前并未持有 64%,那么 2011 年买入的这 16% 本可按成本入账。2012 年(以及追溯至 2012 年末的 2013 年初),我们又增持了马蒙 10% 的股份,仍被迫套用这套荒唐的会计处理。这笔立刻计提的 7 亿美元核销并不影响利润,却压低了账面价值,也因此压低了 2012 年净资产的增幅。以我们最近这笔 10% 的收购价推算,如今持有的马蒙 90% 股份价值约 126 亿美元,而它在资产负债表上的账面价值仅 80 亿美元。查理和我认为,这次收购物超所值。若判断无误,我们持有的马蒙至少比其账面价值高出 46 亿美元。马蒙是一家多元化的企业,由约 150 家分处各行各业的公司组成。它最大的一块业务,是拥有罐车并把它们租给石油、化工等各类托运方——这项生意通过两家子公司经营:美国的联合罐车公司(Union Tank Car)和加拿大的 Procor。

Marmon provides an example of a clear and substantial gap existing between book value and intrinsic value. Let me explain the odd origin of this differential. Last year I told you that we had purchased additional shares in Marmon, raising our ownership to 80% (up from the 64% we acquired in 2008). I also told you that GAAP accounting required us to immediately record the 2011 purchase on our books at far less than what we paid. I’ve now had a year to think about this weird accounting rule, but I’ve yet to find an explanation that makes any sense – nor can Charlie or Marc Hamburg, our CFO, come up with one. My confusion increases when I am told that if we hadn’t already owned 64%, the 16% we purchased in 2011 would have been entered on our books at our cost. In 2012 (and in early 2013, retroactive to yearend 2012) we acquired an additional 10% of Marmon and the same bizarre accounting treatment was required. The $700 million write-off we immediately incurred had no effect on earnings but did reduce book value and, therefore, 2012’s gain in net worth. The cost of our recent 10% purchase implies a $12.6 billion value for the 90% of Marmon we now own. Our balance-sheet carrying value for the 90%, however, is $8 billion. Charlie and I believe our current purchase represents excellent value. If we are correct, our Marmon holding is worth at least $4.6 billion more than its carrying value. Marmon is a diverse enterprise, comprised of about 150 companies operating in a wide variety of industries. Its largest business involves the ownership of tank cars that are leased to a variety of shippers, such as oil and chemical companies. Marmon conducts this business through two subsidiaries, Union Tank Car in the U.S. and Procor in Canada.

13
13

联合罐车公司来历悠久,曾隶属标准石油信托,直到那个帝国于 1911 年被拆分。看火车驶过时,留意车身上的 UTLX 标志。作为伯克希尔的股东,那些印着这个徽记的罐车,就是你名下的资产。发现一节 UTLX 车厢时,不妨挺一挺胸脯,体会一下约翰·D·洛克菲勒一个世纪前检阅自家车队时想必也曾有过的那份满足。罐车归托运人或出租人所有,而不归铁路公司。年末,联合罐车公司和 Procor 合计拥有 97,000 节罐车,账面净值 40 亿美元;顺便一提,一节新车造价高达 10 万美元以上。联合罐车公司本身也是罐车的主要制造商——造出的车少部分出售,大部分留作自有并对外出租。眼下,它的订单已经排到了 2014 年之后。在伯灵顿北方圣达菲铁路(BNSF)和马蒙两家公司,我们都沾了美国石油产量复苏的光。事实上,我们的铁路如今每天运输约 50 万桶石油,约占“本土 48 州”(即不含阿拉斯加和近海)总产量的 10%。种种迹象表明,未来几年 BNSF 的石油运量还将大幅增长。

Union Tank Car has been around a long time, having been owned by the Standard Oil Trust until that empire was broken up in 1911. Look for its UTLX logo on tank cars when you watch trains roll by. As a Berkshire shareholder, you own the cars with that insignia. When you spot a UTLX car, puff out your chest a bit and enjoy the same satisfaction that John D. Rockefeller undoubtedly experienced as he viewed his fleet a century ago. Tank cars are owned by either shippers or lessors, not by railroads. At yearend Union Tank Car and Procor together owned 97,000 cars having a net book value of $4 billion. A new car, it should be noted, costs upwards of $100,000. Union Tank Car is also a major manufacturer of tank cars – some of them to be sold but most to be owned by it and leased out. Today, its order book extends well into 2014. At both BNSF and Marmon, we are benefitting from the resurgence of U.S. oil production. In fact, our railroad is now transporting about 500,000 barrels of oil daily, roughly 10% of the total produced in the “lower 48” (i.e. not counting Alaska and offshore). All indications are that BNSF’s oil shipments will grow substantially in coming years.

****

****

篇幅所限,本板块中其他众多业务无法一一细说。部分较大子公司 2012 年的具体经营情况,见第 76 至 79 页。

Space precludes us from going into detail about the many other businesses in this segment. Companyspecific information about the 2012 operations of some of the larger units appears on pages 76 to 79.

金融与金融产品

Finance and Financial Products

这是我们规模最小的板块,旗下有两家租赁公司——XTRA(拖车)和 CORT(家具),还有克莱顿住宅公司(Clayton Homes),它是全美预制房屋的头号生产商和融资商。除了这些全资子公司,我们还把一批金融资产以及伯卡迪亚商业抵押贷款公司(Berkadia Commercial Mortgage)50% 的权益也归入此类。把克莱顿放进这一板块,是因为它持有并管理着 33.2 万笔、合计 137 亿美元的抵押贷款。这些贷款绝大部分发放给中低收入家庭,可即便在整个楼市崩盘期间,它们的表现依旧良好——这印证了我们的一个信念:合理的首付加上稳妥的还款收入比,纵使在艰难时世也能挡住过度的止赎损失。克莱顿去年还造出 25,872 套预制房屋,比 2011 年增长 13.5%,约占全美单户住宅新建量的 4.8%,这一份额使克莱顿稳坐全美头号住宅建筑商之位。CORT 和 XTRA 同样是各自行业的翘楚。2012 年,我们在 XTRA 新增租赁设备上的支出合计 2.56 亿美元,是其折旧费用的两倍多。当竞争对手还在为当下的不确定性愁眉不展时,XTRA 已在为明天做准备。伯卡迪亚也一路向好。这桩合资生意的大部分活儿都由我们的伙伴莱卡迪亚(Leucadia)打理,这样的安排,查理和我乐得接受。

This sector, our smallest, includes two rental companies, XTRA (trailers) and CORT (furniture), as well as Clayton Homes, the country’s leading producer and financer of manufactured homes. Aside from these 100%owned subsidiaries, we also include in this category a collection of financial assets and our 50% interest in Berkadia Commercial Mortgage. We include Clayton in this sector because it owns and services 332,000 mortgages, totaling $13.7 billion. In large part, these loans have been made to lower and middle-income families. Nevertheless, the loans have performed well throughout the housing collapse, thereby validating our conviction that a reasonable down payment and a sensible payments-to-income ratio will ward off outsized foreclosure losses, even during stressful times. Clayton also produced 25,872 manufactured homes last year, up 13.5% from 2011. That output accounted for about 4.8% of all single-family residences built in the country, a share that makes Clayton America’s number one homebuilder. CORT and XTRA are leaders in their industries as well. Our expenditures for new rental equipment at XTRA totaled $256 million in 2012, more than double its depreciation expense. While competitors fret about today’s uncertainties, XTRA is preparing for tomorrow. Berkadia continues to do well. Our partners at Leucadia do most of the work in this venture, an arrangement that Charlie and I happily embrace.

以下是该板块的税前收益汇总:

Here’s the pre-tax earnings recap for this sector:

2012
2012

2011 年(单位:百万美元)

2011 (in millions)

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

伯卡迪亚

克莱顿

Berkadia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Clayton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

CORT……

CORT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

XTRA……

XTRA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

净财务收入*……

Net financial income* . . . . . . . . . . . . .

*不含资本利得或损失

*Excludes capital gains or losses

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

14
$ 35 255 42 106 410 $848
$ 25 154 29 126 440 $774
14
$ 35 255 42 106 410 $848
$ 25 154 29 126 440 $774

以下是我们年末市值超过 10 亿美元的普通股投资。

Investments Below we show our common stock investments that at yearend had a market value of more than $1 billion.

12/31/12
12/31/12

持股数

Shares

持股比例

Percentage of Company Owned

公司

Company

成本*

Cost*

市值

Market

股份公司持股比例成本*市场(单位:百万)
151,610,700美国运通公司13.7$ 1,287$ 8,715
400,000,000可口可乐公司8.91,29914,500
24,123,911康菲石油2.01,2191,399
22,999,600DIRECTV3.81,0571,154
68,115,484国际商业机器公司6.011,68013,048
28,415,250穆迪公司12.72871,430
20,060,390慕尼黑再保险11.32,9903,599
20,668,118Phillips 663.36601,097
3,947,555POSCO5.17681,295
52,477,678宝洁公司1.93363,563
25,848,838赛诺菲2.02,0732,438
415,510,889乐购公司5.22,3502,268
78,060,769美国合众银行4.22,4012,493
54,823,433沃尔玛百货公司1.62,8373,741
456,170,061富国银行公司8.710,90615,592
其他7,64611,330
按市价计量的普通股总计$49,796$87,662
SharesCompanyPercentage of Company OwnedCost*Market (in millions)
151,610,700American Express Company13.7$ 1,287$ 8,715
400,000,000The Coca-Cola Company8.91,29914,500
24,123,911ConocoPhillips2.01,2191,399
22,999,600DIRECTV3.81,0571,154
68,115,484International Business Machines Corp6.011,68013,048
28,415,250Moody’s Corporation12.72871,430
20,060,390Munich Re11.32,9903,599
20,668,118Phillips 663.36601,097
3,947,555POSCO5.17681,295
52,477,678The Procter & Gamble Company1.93363,563
25,848,838Sanofi2.02,0732,438
415,510,889Tesco plc5.22,3502,268
78,060,769U.S. Bancorp4.22,4012,493
54,823,433Wal-Mart Stores, Inc1.62,8373,741
456,170,061Wells Fargo & Company8.710,90615,592
Others7,64611,330
Total Common Stocks Carried at Market$49,796$87,662

*这是我们的实际买入价,也是我们的计税基础;受此前要求的增记或减记影响,GAAP 口径的“成本”在少数情况下会有所不同。关于这份清单的构成,有一点值得一提。在伯克希尔以往的年报里,此处列出的每一只股票均系由我买入——也就是说,为伯克希尔做出买入决定的那个人是我。但从这份清单开始,凡是托德·库姆斯(Todd Combs)或泰德·韦施勒(Ted Weschler)单独买入的股票,或两人合并买入的股票,只要达到入选清单的金额门槛(今年为 10 亿美元),也会被纳入。上表中的第一只此类股票便是 DIRECTV,托德和泰德的组合里均持有该股,且截至 2012 年末,两人的合计持仓市值为表中所示的 11.5 亿美元。托德和泰德还负责管理伯克希尔部分子公司的养老基金,而另一些基金出于监管原因则交由外部顾问管理。我们并未将养老基金持有的股票纳入年报统计,尽管这些基金的持仓时常与伯克希尔的持仓相互重叠。

*This is our actual purchase price and also our tax basis; GAAP “cost” differs in a few cases because of write-ups or write-downs that have been required. One point about the composition of this list deserves mention. In Berkshire’s past annual reports, every stock itemized in this space has been bought by me, in the sense that I made the decision to buy it for Berkshire. But starting with this list, any investment made by Todd Combs or Ted Weschler – or a combined purchase by them – that meets the dollar threshold for the list ($1 billion this year) will be included. Above is the first such stock, DIRECTV, which both Todd and Ted hold in their portfolios and whose combined holdings at the end of 2012 were valued at the $1.15 billion shown. Todd and Ted also manage the pension funds of certain Berkshire subsidiaries, while others, for regulatory reasons, are managed by outside advisers. We do not include holdings of the pension funds in our annual report tabulations, though their portfolios often overlap Berkshire’s.

****

****

我们继续收缩衍生品组合中由伯克希尔承担类保险风险的那一部分。(不过,我们的电力和天然气公用事业业务,仍会为经营目的而使用衍生品。)任何新开仓合约都会要求我们提供抵押品,而除极少数例外,我们不愿这么做。市场有时会以极端方式运行,我们毫无兴趣让伯克希尔暴露在金融世界某些突如其来的事件面前,那些事件可能要求我们在短时间内拿出堆积如山的现金。查理和我信奉的是用许多层冗余的流动性来经营,我们回避任何可能大幅消耗现金的义务。这种做法会让我们在一百年里有九十九年回报有所降低,但在第一百年,当别人纷纷倒下时,我们仍能存活。而且整整这一百年,我们都睡得安稳。

We continue to wind down the part of our derivatives portfolio that involved the assumption by Berkshire of insurance-like risks. (Our electric and gas utility businesses, however, will continue to use derivatives for operational purposes.) New commitments would require us to post collateral and, with minor exceptions, we are unwilling to do that. Markets can behave in extraordinary ways, and we have no interest in exposing Berkshire to some out-of-the-blue event in the financial world that might require our posting mountains of cash on a moment’s notice. Charlie and I believe in operating with many redundant layers of liquidity, and we avoid any sort of obligation that could drain our cash in a material way. That reduces our returns in 99 years out of 100. But we will survive in the 100th while many others fail. And we will sleep well in all 100.

15
15

我们卖出的、为公司债券提供信用保护的那些衍生品合约,将在明年悉数到期。如今几乎可以肯定,这些合约将为我们带来约 10 亿美元税前利润。这些衍生品签约时,我们还收到了金额相当可观的预付款,在它们五年的存续期里,由此产生的“浮存金”平均约为 20 亿美元。总体而言,这些衍生品带来了远不止令人满意的回报,尤其是考虑到我们是在整个金融恐慌及随后的衰退中,一直为企业信用——且多为高收益品种——提供担保。至于我们另一桩主要的衍生品合约,我们卖出了对标美国、英国、欧洲和日本四大股票指数的长期看跌期权。这些合约签订于 2004 年至 2008 年间,即便在最坏情形下,抵押品要求也很小。2010 年,我们了结了约 10% 的风险敞口,获利 2.22 亿美元。余下的合约将在 2018 年至 2026 年间到期。只有到期日当天的指数值才算数,我们的交易对手无权提前终止。签订这些尚未了结的合约时,伯克希尔收到了 42 亿美元权利金。假如这些合约全部在 2011 年末到期,我们本需支付 62 亿美元;而 2012 年末的对应数字是 39 亿美元。随着这笔即时结算负债大幅下降,我们把 2012 年末按 GAAP 记录的负债从 2011 年末的 85 亿美元调降到 75 亿美元。虽说并非确凿无疑,但查理和我相信,最终负债很可能远低于我们目前账面所记的金额。与此同时,我们可以按自己的判断,将来自这些合约的 42 亿美元浮存金用于投资。我们买了几家报纸……报纸?过去十五个月里,我们耗资 3.44 亿美元收购了 28 家日报。这也许会令你困惑,原因有二。第一,我在这些信里和股东大会上早已反复告诉过你们:整个报业的发行量、广告收入和利润注定会下滑,这一判断至今不变。第二,我们买下的这些报纸,远未达到我们常提及的收购规模门槛。第二点不难解释:查理和我热爱报纸,只要它们的经济账合算,哪怕其规模远低于,比方说,我们收购一家小五金公司所要求的门槛,我们也会买。解释第一点,则需我提供更详尽的说明,包括一段历史。新闻,简单来说,就是人们尚不知晓却又想知道的事情。而人们会从那些能将即时性、易得性、可靠性、全面性和低成本结合得最好的渠道,去获取对他们而言重要的新闻。这些因素的相对重要性,因新闻的性质和信息需求者的不同而变化。在电视和互联网出现之前,报纸是种类多得难以置信的各类新闻的头号来源,这使得报纸对极高比例的人群不可或缺。无论你关心的是国际、国内、本地、体育还是金融行情,往往都是报纸头一个把最新消息告诉你。的确,你的报纸包含了如此多你想了解的内容,哪怕真正契合你特定兴趣的只有寥寥几版,你也觉得物有所值。更妙的是,产品的成本几乎全由广告商承担,读者不过是搭了顺风车。此外,广告本身也向大批读者传递着他们极为感兴趣的信息,实际上等于提供了更多“新闻”。编辑们想到这一点或许会皱眉,可对许多读者来说,弄清有哪些工作或公寓可选、哪家超市周末有特价、或者哪家影院何时上映什么电影,远比社论版上表达的那些观点要紧得多。

The derivatives we have sold that provide credit protection for corporate bonds will all expire in the next year. It’s now almost certain that our profit from these contracts will approximate $1 billion pre-tax. We also received very substantial sums upfront on these derivatives, and the “float” attributable to them has averaged about $2 billion over their five-year lives. All told, these derivatives have provided a more-than-satisfactory result, especially considering the fact that we were guaranteeing corporate credits – mostly of the high-yield variety – throughout the financial panic and subsequent recession. In our other major derivatives commitment, we sold long-term puts on four leading stock indices in the U.S., U.K., Europe and Japan. These contracts were initiated between 2004 and 2008 and even under the worst of circumstances have only minor collateral requirements. In 2010 we unwound about 10% of our exposure at a profit of $222 million. The remaining contracts expire between 2018 and 2026. Only the index value at expiration date counts; our counterparties have no right to early termination. Berkshire received premiums of $4.2 billion when we wrote the contracts that remain outstanding. If all of these contracts had come due at yearend 2011, we would have had to pay $6.2 billion; the corresponding figure at yearend 2012 was $3.9 billion. With this large drop in immediate settlement liability, we reduced our GAAP liability at yearend 2012 to $7.5 billion from $8.5 billion at the end of 2011. Though it’s no sure thing, Charlie and I believe it likely that the final liability will be considerably less than the amount we currently carry on our books. In the meantime, we can invest the $4.2 billion of float derived from these contracts as we see fit. We Buy Some Newspapers . . . Newspapers? During the past fifteen months, we acquired 28 daily newspapers at a cost of $344 million. This may puzzle you for two reasons. First, I have long told you in these letters and at our annual meetings that the circulation, advertising and profits of the newspaper industry overall are certain to decline. That prediction still holds. Second, the properties we purchased fell far short of meeting our oft-stated size requirements for acquisitions. We can address the second point easily. Charlie and I love newspapers and, if their economics make sense, will buy them even when they fall far short of the size threshold we would require for the purchase of, say, a widget company. Addressing the first point requires me to provide a more elaborate explanation, including some history. News, to put it simply, is what people don’t know that they want to know. And people will seek their news – what’s important to them – from whatever sources provide the best combination of immediacy, ease of access, reliability, comprehensiveness and low cost. The relative importance of these factors varies with the nature of the news and the person wanting it. Before television and the Internet, newspapers were the primary source for an incredible variety of news, a fact that made them indispensable to a very high percentage of the population. Whether your interests were international, national, local, sports or financial quotations, your newspaper usually was first to tell you the latest information. Indeed, your paper contained so much you wanted to learn that you received your money’s worth, even if only a small number of its pages spoke to your specific interests. Better yet, advertisers typically paid almost all of the product’s cost, and readers rode their coattails. Additionally, the ads themselves delivered information of vital interest to hordes of readers, in effect providing even more “news.” Editors would cringe at the thought, but for many readers learning what jobs or apartments were available, what supermarkets were carrying which weekend specials, or what movies were showing where and when was far more important than the views expressed on the editorial page.

16
16

反过来,地方报纸对广告商也不可或缺。西尔斯或西夫韦如果在奥马哈开店,就需要一个“扩音器”告诉全城居民,为什么今天该光顾他们的店。事实上,大百货公司和大杂货店会竞相用整版整版的广告压过对手的声浪,因为它们心知肚明,广告里的商品会被抢购一空。既然再没有别的扩音器能与报纸相提并论,广告便不推自销。只要一家报纸是所在社区里唯一的一家,利润就注定非同寻常,经营得好坏几乎无关紧要。(正如南方一位出版人有句名言坦承:“我这辈子的显赫地位,全拜美国两大制度所赐——裙带关系和垄断。”)这些年来,几乎所有的城市都变成了“一城一报”(或者容纳两家原本竞争的报纸,但它们联手以单一经济体的形式运营)。这种收缩不可避免,因为大多数人只愿读、也只愿付钱买一份报纸。有竞争时,发行量一旦获得大幅领先,广告便几乎自动涌向它,于是广告带来读者,读者又引来广告。这一共生过程注定了弱势报纸的末路,被称作“最肥者生存”。如今世道变了。股市行情和全国体育赛事的细节,早在印刷机开动之前就成了旧闻。互联网提供了关于空缺职位和待售房屋的广泛信息。电视用政治、国内和国际新闻对观众进行狂轰滥炸。在一个又一个人们关切的领域里,报纸就这样丢掉了它的“首要地位”。而随着受众流失,广告也随之流失。(“招聘”分类广告带来的收入——长期是报纸的一大财源——在过去 12 年里已暴跌超过 90%。)然而,在传送本地新闻方面,报纸依旧占据至高无上的地位。如果你想知道自己镇上发生了什么——无论是关于市长、税收还是高中橄榄球赛的新闻——一份尽职尽责的地方报纸无可替代。一位读者读上一两段关于加拿大关税或巴基斯坦政局发展的文章,眼神也许就涣散了;但一篇关于读者本人或其邻居的报道,他会从头读到尾。任何地方,只要存在一种普遍深入的社区感,一份服务于该社区特殊信息需求的报纸,对相当一部分居民来说就依然是不可或缺的。然而,即使是有价值的产品,也可能因错误的经营策略而自我毁灭。而这一过程,在过去十年里,几乎在所有上规模的报纸身上都已在发生。包括伯克希尔在布法罗的那家在内,出版商会让他们的报纸在互联网上免费阅读,同时又对纸质版收取可观的费用。这除了导致印刷版销量急剧且持续下滑,还能导向什么别的结果呢?发行量下滑,又使报纸对广告商的重要性降低。在此情形下,昔日的“良性循环”彻底逆转。《华尔街日报》很早便转向了付费模式。但地方报纸的主要典范,是由小沃尔特·休斯曼出版的《阿肯色民主党公报》。沃尔特也很早就采用了付费模式,过去十年里,他这份报纸的发行量守得比全国任何一家大报都好得多。尽管有沃尔特这个强有力的示范,直到最近一两年,其他报纸,包括伯克希尔旗下的报纸,才开始摸索付费模式。无论哪种做法最为有效——答案尚不明朗——一旦找到,就会被广泛效仿。

In turn, the local paper was indispensable to advertisers. If Sears or Safeway built stores in Omaha, they required a “megaphone” to tell the city’s residents why their stores should be visited today. Indeed, big department stores and grocers vied to outshout their competition with multi-page spreads, knowing that the goods they advertised would fly off the shelves. With no other megaphone remotely comparable to that of the newspaper, ads sold themselves. As long as a newspaper was the only one in its community, its profits were certain to be extraordinary; whether it was managed well or poorly made little difference. (As one Southern publisher famously confessed, “I owe my exalted position in life to two great American institutions – nepotism and monopoly.”) Over the years, almost all cities became one-newspaper towns (or harbored two competing papers that joined forces to operate as a single economic unit). This contraction was inevitable because most people wished to read and pay for only one paper. When competition existed, the paper that gained a significant lead in circulation almost automatically received the most ads. That left ads drawing readers and readers drawing ads. This symbiotic process spelled doom for the weaker paper and became known as “survival of the fattest.” Now the world has changed. Stock market quotes and the details of national sports events are old news long before the presses begin to roll. The Internet offers extensive information about both available jobs and homes. Television bombards viewers with political, national and international news. In one area of interest after another, newspapers have therefore lost their “primacy.” And, as their audiences have fallen, so has advertising. (Revenues from “help wanted” classified ads – long a huge source of income for newspapers – have plunged more than 90% in the past 12 years.) Newspapers continue to reign supreme, however, in the delivery of local news. If you want to know what’s going on in your town – whether the news is about the mayor or taxes or high school football – there is no substitute for a local newspaper that is doing its job. A reader’s eyes may glaze over after they take in a couple of paragraphs about Canadian tariffs or political developments in Pakistan; a story about the reader himself or his neighbors will be read to the end. Wherever there is a pervasive sense of community, a paper that serves the special informational needs of that community will remain indispensable to a significant portion of its residents. Even a valuable product, however, can self-destruct from a faulty business strategy. And that process has been underway during the past decade at almost all papers of size. Publishers – including Berkshire in Buffalo – have offered their paper free on the Internet while charging meaningful sums for the physical specimen. How could this lead to anything other than a sharp and steady drop in sales of the printed product? Falling circulation, moreover, makes a paper less essential to advertisers. Under these conditions, the “virtuous circle” of the past reverses. The Wall Street Journal went to a pay model early. But the main exemplar for local newspapers is the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, published by Walter Hussman, Jr. Walter also adopted a pay format early, and over the past decade his paper has retained its circulation far better than any other large paper in the country. Despite Walter’s powerful example, it’s only been in the last year or so that other papers, including Berkshire’s, have explored pay arrangements. Whatever works best – and the answer is not yet clear – will be copied widely.

****

****

查理和我相信,那些向紧密联结的社区提供全面可靠信息,并拥有明智互联网策略的报纸,仍能存续很长一段时间。我们不认为成功来自削减新闻内容或出版频率。事实上,报道单薄几乎必然导致读者稀薄。而眼下在一些大城镇正在试行、低于每日一期的出版方式——短期或许能改善利润——似乎注定会逐渐削弱报纸与读者的关联。我们的目标,是让旗下报纸满载读者感兴趣的内容,并从那些觉得我们有用的人那里获得合理的报酬——无论他们读到的是捧在手里的纸张,还是呈现在互联网上的页面。

Charlie and I believe that papers delivering comprehensive and reliable information to tightly-bound communities and having a sensible Internet strategy will remain viable for a long time. We do not believe that success will come from cutting either the news content or frequency of publication. Indeed, skimpy news coverage will almost certainly lead to skimpy readership. And the less-than-daily publication that is now being tried in some large towns or cities – while it may improve profits in the short term – seems certain to diminish the papers’ relevance over time. Our goal is to keep our papers loaded with content of interest to our readers and to be paid appropriately by those who find us useful, whether the product they view is in their hands or on the Internet.

17
17

这份信心,还得益于特里·克罗格(Terry Kroeger)在《奥马哈世界先驱报》领衔的那支出色管理团队,他们有能力统管一大批报纸。不过,各家报纸在新闻报道和社论立场上仍将各自独立。(我投了奥巴马;而在我们旗下明确表态支持某位总统候选人的 12 家日报里,有 10 家选了罗姆尼。)我们的报纸当然也躲不开收入下行的大势。饶是如此,2012 年全年我们持有的六家小型日报,当年收入原封未动,远胜大城市日报的境遇;全年经营的两家大报——《布法罗新闻》和《奥马哈世界先驱报》——把收入跌幅控制在了 3%,同样跑赢了平均水平。在全美 50 大都会区的报纸中,我们的布法罗和奥马哈两报在本土市场的发行渗透率名列前茅。这份人气绝非偶然,功劳要记在两位主编头上——《布法罗新闻》的玛格丽特·沙利文(Margaret Sullivan)和《奥马哈世界先驱报》的迈克·赖利(Mike Reilly)——他们提供的信息,让这两份报纸成了心系社区的读者离不开的读物。(说来遗憾,玛格丽特最近离开我们,去了《纽约时报》,那里递来的橄榄枝实在难以回绝。那家报纸招了个好手,我们衷心祝她一切顺利。)伯克希尔从报纸赚到的现金,长期看几乎注定会一路走低;纵有明智的互联网策略,也挡不住这份温和的侵蚀。但就我们付出的成本而言,我相信这些报纸能达到、乃至超过我们检验收购的经济标尺,迄今为止的结果也支持这一判断。不过,查理和我仍恪守第 11 条经济原则(详见第 99 页):绝不让任何注定无休止亏损的生意继续经营下去。我们从 Media General 一次性打包买入的一家日报,在原东家手里就亏损严重;分析过它的业绩后,我们看不出止亏之法,只好忍痛把它关停。可我们余下的所有日报,都应在未来很长一段时间里保持盈利(名单见第 108 页)。只要价格合适——也就是当期盈利极低的倍数——我们还会继续买入这类我们中意的报纸。

Our confidence is buttressed by the availability of Terry Kroeger’s outstanding management group at the Omaha World-Herald, a team that has the ability to oversee a large group of papers. The individual papers, however, will be independent in their news coverage and editorial opinions. (I voted for Obama; of our 12 dailies that endorsed a presidential candidate, 10 opted for Romney.) Our newspapers are certainly not insulated from the forces that have been driving revenues downward. Still, the six small dailies we owned throughout 2012 had unchanged revenues for the year, a result far superior to that experienced by big-city dailies. Moreover, the two large papers we operated throughout the year – The Buffalo News and the Omaha World-Herald – held their revenue loss to 3%, which was also an above-average outcome. Among newspapers in America’s 50 largest metropolitan areas, our Buffalo and Omaha papers rank near the top in circulation penetration of their home territories. This popularity is no accident: Credit the editors of those papers – Margaret Sullivan at the News and Mike Reilly at the World-Herald — for delivering information that has made their publications indispensable to community-interested readers. (Margaret, I regret to say, recently left us to join The New York Times, whose job offers are tough to turn down. That paper made a great hire, and we wish her the best.) Berkshire’s cash earnings from its papers will almost certainly trend downward over time. Even a sensible Internet strategy will not be able to prevent modest erosion. At our cost, however, I believe these papers will meet or exceed our economic test for acquisitions. Results to date support that belief. Charlie and I, however, still operate under economic principle 11 (detailed on page 99) and will not continue the operation of any business doomed to unending losses. One daily paper that we acquired in a bulk purchase from Media General was significantly unprofitable under that company’s ownership. After analyzing the paper’s results, we saw no remedy for the losses and reluctantly shut it down. All of our remaining dailies, however, should be profitable for a long time to come. (They are listed on page 108.) At appropriate prices – and that means at a very low multiple of current earnings – we will purchase more papers of the type we like.

****

****

年末,伯克希尔的报业迎来一座里程碑:斯坦·利普西(Stan Lipsey)从《布法罗新闻》发行人任上退休。我毫不夸张地说,若没有斯坦,这份报纸如今恐怕早已不在了。查理和我在 1977 年 4 月买下《布法罗新闻》。那是一份晚报,工作日里独占鳌头,却没有周日版。当时全国的发行大势正转向早报,而周日版又对都市日报的盈利越来越关键。没有周日版,《布法罗新闻》注定要输给那家早报对手——后者的周日产品既厚实又根深蒂固。于是,我们在 1977 年底开始发行周日版。结果,天塌地陷。对手一纸诉状把我们告上法庭,地区法官小查尔斯·布里恩特写下一份严苛裁决,几乎扼杀了我们新版的推出。这份裁决后来被推翻——熬过了漫长的 17 个月——第二巡回上诉法院以 3 比 0 的一致意见给了它一记尖锐的驳斥。上诉悬而未决的那段日子里,我们发行量下滑、资金大出血,时刻悬在倒闭的边缘。这时,斯坦·利普西登场了。他是我上世纪 60 年代结识的朋友,曾和妻子一道,把奥马哈一家小周报卖给伯克希尔。我发现斯坦是个非凡的报人,对发行、生产、销售、编辑无一不通。(1973 年那家小周报能摘得普利策奖,他是关键人物。)所以当《布法罗新闻》深陷泥潭时,我请斯坦离开奥马哈舒适的日子,来布法罗接手。他二话没说就来了。他和我们的主编默里·莱特一道,苦撑了四年至暗时光,直到 1982 年《布法罗新闻》在这场竞争中胜出。此后,尽管布法罗经济艰难,《布法罗新闻》的表现却一直出色。无论作为朋友还是作为经理人,斯坦都是最好的。

A milestone in Berkshire’s newspaper operations occurred at yearend when Stan Lipsey retired as publisher of The Buffalo News. It’s no exaggeration for me to say that the News might now be extinct were it not for Stan. Charlie and I acquired the News in April 1977. It was an evening paper, dominant on weekdays but lacking a Sunday edition. Throughout the country, the circulation trend was toward morning papers. Moreover, Sunday was becoming ever more critical to the profitability of metropolitan dailies. Without a Sunday paper, the News was destined to lose out to its morning competitor, which had a fat and entrenched Sunday product. We therefore began to print a Sunday edition late in 1977. And then all hell broke loose. Our competitor sued us, and District Judge Charles Brieant, Jr. authored a harsh ruling that crippled the introduction of our paper. His ruling was later reversed – after 17 long months – in a 3-0 sharp rebuke by the Second Circuit Court of Appeals. While the appeal was pending, we lost circulation, hemorrhaged money and stood in constant danger of going out of business. Enter Stan Lipsey, a friend of mine from the 1960s, who, with his wife, had sold Berkshire a small Omaha weekly. I found Stan to be an extraordinary newspaperman, knowledgeable about every aspect of circulation, production, sales and editorial. (He was a key person in gaining that small weekly a Pulitzer Prize in 1973.) So when I was in big trouble at the News, I asked Stan to leave his comfortable way of life in Omaha to take over in Buffalo. He never hesitated. Along with Murray Light, our editor, Stan persevered through four years of very dark days until the News won the competitive struggle in 1982. Ever since, despite a difficult Buffalo economy, the performance of the News has been exceptional. As both a friend and as a manager, Stan is simply the best.

18
18

股息

有一批伯克希尔的股东——包括我的几位好友——希望公司派发现金股息。让他们不解的是:我们乐得从伯克希尔持有的大多数股票那里收股息,自己却一毛不拔。那么,就让我们来掂量掂量,股息在什么情形下对股东划算,在什么情形下不划算。一家盈利的公司,可以用多种(且并不互斥的)方式来配置利润。管理层首先该审视的,是现有业务提供的再投资机会——那些能提高效率、拓展地域、延伸并改良产品线,或以其他方式加宽公司与对手之间那道经济护城河的项目。我要求旗下子公司的经理们,永不停歇地寻找拓宽护城河的机会,他们也确实找到了许多在经济上划算的项目。可有时,经理们也会失手。失手的常见原因,是他们先认定了自己想要的答案,再倒过头来找支持它的理由。这个过程当然是下意识的——正因如此才格外危险。你们这位董事长,也未能免于此过。在伯克希尔 1986 年的年报里,我讲过:我们最初那门纺织生意,倾注了二十年的管理心血和资本改造,到头来全是徒劳。我盼着它成,便一厢情愿地做出一连串糟糕决定(我甚至又买下另一家新英格兰的纺织公司)。可“心想事成”只在迪士尼电影里灵验,在商界,它是毒药。纵有这些前车之鉴,我们动用可用资金的头一件事,永远是掂量能否把它明智地部署到各项业务里。2012 年我们创纪录地投下 121 亿美元的固定资产投资和补强收购,正说明这在伯克希尔是资本配置的一片沃土。这里我们有个优势:因为触角伸进了经济的方方面面,我们可挑的余地远比大多数公司宽广——决定该做什么时,我们能浇灌鲜花、绕开杂草。即便对现有业务砸下重金之后,伯克希尔照样会源源不断地生出大把额外现金。因此,下一步便是四处寻觅与现有业务无关的收购。这里的检验很简单:查理和我是否认为,我们能促成一桩交易,让股东在每股意义上比收购前更富有?收购这件事,我犯过许多错,将来还会犯。但总体而言,我们的记录令人满意——这意味着,比起把用于收购的钱转去回购或分红,今天股东们要富有得多。不过,套用那句标准免责声明:过往业绩不代表未来结果。这一点在伯克希尔尤为真切:以我们当下的体量,要做出既有分量又明智的收购,比过去大多数年份都更难了。尽管如此,一笔大交易仍有可能为每股内在价值添上实实在在的一大块。BNSF 就是明证:它如今的价值已远超我们的账面价值。当初若把买下它所必需的资金拿去分红或回购,你和我如今都会更糟。像 BNSF 这样的大手笔固然稀罕,可海里终究还游着几条鲸鱼。资金的第三种用途——回购——在公司股价显著低于保守估算的内在价值时,是明智之举。事实上,有纪律的回购是最稳妥的用钱之道:能用八毛甚至更少的价钱买进一美元的钞票,很难出错。我们在去年的年报里讲过回购的标准,一旦机会来临,我们会大量买回自家股票。我们起初说过,出价不会超过账面价值的 110%,可事实证明这不现实。于是 12 月里,当一大笔股票以约账面价值 116% 的价位现身时,我们把上限提高到了 120%。

Dividends A number of Berkshire shareholders – including some of my good friends – would like Berkshire to pay a cash dividend. It puzzles them that we relish the dividends we receive from most of the stocks that Berkshire owns, but pay out nothing ourselves. So let’s examine when dividends do and don’t make sense for shareholders. A profitable company can allocate its earnings in various ways (which are not mutually exclusive). A company’s management should first examine reinvestment possibilities offered by its current business – projects to become more efficient, expand territorially, extend and improve product lines or to otherwise widen the economic moat separating the company from its competitors. I ask the managers of our subsidiaries to unendingly focus on moat-widening opportunities, and they find many that make economic sense. But sometimes our managers misfire. The usual cause of failure is that they start with the answer they want and then work backwards to find a supporting rationale. Of course, the process is subconscious; that’s what makes it so dangerous. Your chairman has not been free of this sin. In Berkshire’s 1986 annual report, I described how twenty years of management effort and capital improvements in our original textile business were an exercise in futility. I wanted the business to succeed and wished my way into a series of bad decisions. (I even bought another New England textile company.) But wishing makes dreams come true only in Disney movies; it’s poison in business. Despite such past miscues, our first priority with available funds will always be to examine whether they can be intelligently deployed in our various businesses. Our record $12.1 billion of fixed-asset investments and bolton acquisitions in 2012 demonstrate that this is a fertile field for capital allocation at Berkshire. And here we have an advantage: Because we operate in so many areas of the economy, we enjoy a range of choices far wider than that open to most corporations. In deciding what to do, we can water the flowers and skip over the weeds. Even after we deploy hefty amounts of capital in our current operations, Berkshire will regularly generate a lot of additional cash. Our next step, therefore, is to search for acquisitions unrelated to our current businesses. Here our test is simple: Do Charlie and I think we can effect a transaction that is likely to leave our shareholders wealthier on a per-share basis than they were prior to the acquisition? I have made plenty of mistakes in acquisitions and will make more. Overall, however, our record is satisfactory, which means that our shareholders are far wealthier today than they would be if the funds we used for acquisitions had instead been devoted to share repurchases or dividends. But, to use the standard disclaimer, past performance is no guarantee of future results. That’s particularly true at Berkshire: Because of our present size, making acquisitions that are both meaningful and sensible is now more difficult than it has been during most of our years. Nevertheless, a large deal still offers us possibilities to add materially to per-share intrinsic value. BNSF is a case in point: It is now worth considerably more than our carrying value. Had we instead allocated the funds required for this purchase to dividends or repurchases, you and I would have been worse off. Though large transactions of the BNSF kind will be rare, there are still some whales in the ocean. The third use of funds – repurchases – is sensible for a company when its shares sell at a meaningful discount to conservatively calculated intrinsic value. Indeed, disciplined repurchases are the surest way to use funds intelligently: It’s hard to go wrong when you’re buying dollar bills for 80¢ or less. We explained our criteria for repurchases in last year’s report and, if the opportunity presents itself, we will buy large quantities of our stock. We originally said we would not pay more than 110% of book value, but that proved unrealistic. Therefore, we increased the limit to 120% in December when a large block became available at about 116% of book value.

19
19

但千万别忘了:在回购决策中,价格至关重要。当买入价高于内在价值时,价值就会被摧毁。我和董事们都认为,在不超过内在价值 120% 这一上限的价位买入,会让长期持股的股东切实受益。这就说到股息了。这里我们需要做一些假设,并用上一些数学计算。这些数字需要你仔细阅读,但要理解赞成和反对派息的理由,它们必不可少,所以还请耐心听我说。我们先假设你和我各占一半,共同拥有一家净资产为 200 万美元的企业。该企业的有形净资产回报率为 12%——即 24 万美元——并且留存收益再投资也能合理地预期获得同样的 12% 回报。此外,总有一些外部人士愿意按净资产的 125% 买入我们的股份。因此,我们各自拥有的股份现在价值 125 万美元。你希望我们两位股东每年拿走公司年利润的三分之一,其余三分之二用于再投资。你觉得这个计划能在当期收入与资本增值之间取得良好的平衡。所以你提议:从当期利润中派发 8 万美元,留下 16 万美元用于增加企业未来的利润。第一年,你的股息将是 4 万美元;随着利润增长,并且维持三分之一的派息率,你的股息也会随之增长。总体而言,股息和股票价值每年将增长 8%(净资产回报率 12% 减去按净资产计算派发的 4%)。十年后,我们公司的净资产将达到 4,317,850 美元(最初的 200 万美元按 8% 复利增长),你在接下来一年可获得的股息将是 86,357 美元。我们每人手中的股票价值将为 2,698,656 美元(我们各自持有的公司一半净资产的 125%)。从此我们就能一直幸福地生活下去——股息和股票价值继续以每年 8% 的速度增长。然而,还有另一种方法,能让我们过得更舒心。在这种方案下,我们将所有利润都留在公司里,每人每年卖出 3.2% 的股份。由于股票按账面价值的 125% 出售,这种方法最初也能产生同样的 4 万美元现金,并且这个金额会逐年增长。姑且称这个选项为“套现”方案。按照这个“套现”方案,十年后我们公司的净资产将增至 6,211,696 美元(200 万美元按 12% 复利增长)。因为我们每年都会出售一些股份,我们的持股比例会下降,十年后,我们每人将持有公司 36.12% 的股份。即便如此,你当时在公司净资产中所占的份额将是 2,243,540 美元。而且,请记住,我们每人名下的每一美元净资产,都可以按 1.25 美元出售。因此,你剩余股份的市值将是 2,804,425 美元,比我们采用股息方案时你的股份价值高出约 4%。此外,按照套现政策,你每年获得的现金收入将比股息方案下高出 4%。瞧!——你每年可花的现金更多了,资本价值也更高了。当然,这个计算假设我们这家假想公司能保持年均 12% 的净资产回报率,并且股东能够按平均 125% 的账面价值出售其股份。就这一点而言,标普 500 指数的净资产回报率远高于 12%,其售价也远高于净资产的 125%。这两个假设对伯克希尔来说似乎也合理,尽管远非板上钉钉。此外,从积极方面看,实际结果也有可能超出这些假设。如果真是这样,那么支持“套现”政策的理由就更充分了。纵观伯克希尔的历史——诚然这段历史几乎不可能重演——采用“套现”政策为股东带来的结果将远远优于股息政策。除了数学上的优势,支持“套现”政策还有另外两条同样重要的理由。第一,股息政策将一套固定的现金兑现方案强加给了所有股东。比如说,如果政策规定派发 40% 的利润,那么那些希望拿到 30% 或 50% 的股东就会受到限制。我们那 60 万名股东对现金的需求各不相同。但可以肯定地说,其中很多人——也许是大多数——正处在净储蓄的状态,按理说应该更希望公司根本不派发股息。

But never forget: In repurchase decisions, price is all-important. Value is destroyed when purchases are made above intrinsic value. The directors and I believe that continuing shareholders are benefitted in a meaningful way by purchases up to our 120% limit. And that brings us to dividends. Here we have to make a few assumptions and use some math. The numbers will require careful reading, but they are essential to understanding the case for and against dividends. So bear with me. We’ll start by assuming that you and I are the equal owners of a business with $2 million of net worth. The business earns 12% on tangible net worth – $240,000 – and can reasonably expect to earn the same 12% on reinvested earnings. Furthermore, there are outsiders who always wish to buy into our business at 125% of net worth. Therefore, the value of what we each own is now $1.25 million. You would like to have the two of us shareholders receive one-third of our company’s annual earnings and have two-thirds be reinvested. That plan, you feel, will nicely balance your needs for both current income and capital growth. So you suggest that we pay out $80,000 of current earnings and retain $160,000 to increase the future earnings of the business. In the first year, your dividend would be $40,000, and as earnings grew and the onethird payout was maintained, so too would your dividend. In total, dividends and stock value would increase 8% each year (12% earned on net worth less 4% of net worth paid out). After ten years our company would have a net worth of $4,317,850 (the original $2 million compounded at 8%) and your dividend in the upcoming year would be $86,357. Each of us would have shares worth $2,698,656 (125% of our half of the company’s net worth). And we would live happily ever after – with dividends and the value of our stock continuing to grow at 8% annually. There is an alternative approach, however, that would leave us even happier. Under this scenario, we would leave all earnings in the company and each sell 3.2% of our shares annually. Since the shares would be sold at 125% of book value, this approach would produce the same $40,000 of cash initially, a sum that would grow annually. Call this option the “sell-off” approach. Under this “sell-off” scenario, the net worth of our company increases to $6,211,696 after ten years ($2 million compounded at 12%). Because we would be selling shares each year, our percentage ownership would have declined, and, after ten years, we would each own 36.12% of the business. Even so, your share of the net worth of the company at that time would be $2,243,540. And, remember, every dollar of net worth attributable to each of us can be sold for $1.25. Therefore, the market value of your remaining shares would be $2,804,425, about 4% greater than the value of your shares if we had followed the dividend approach. Moreover, your annual cash receipts from the sell-off policy would now be running 4% more than you would have received under the dividend scenario. Voila! – you would have both more cash to spend annually and more capital value. This calculation, of course, assumes that our hypothetical company can earn an average of 12% annually on net worth and that its shareholders can sell their shares for an average of 125% of book value. To that point, the S&P 500 earns considerably more than 12% on net worth and sells at a price far above 125% of that net worth. Both assumptions also seem reasonable for Berkshire, though certainly not assured. Moreover, on the plus side, there also is a possibility that the assumptions will be exceeded. If they are, the argument for the sell-off policy becomes even stronger. Over Berkshire’s history – admittedly one that won’t come close to being repeated – the sell-off policy would have produced results for shareholders dramatically superior to the dividend policy. Aside from the favorable math, there are two further – and important – arguments for a sell-off policy. First, dividends impose a specific cash-out policy upon all shareholders. If, say, 40% of earnings is the policy, those who wish 30% or 50% will be thwarted. Our 600,000 shareholders cover the waterfront in their desires for cash. It is safe to say, however, that a great many of them – perhaps even most of them – are in a net-savings mode and logically should prefer no payment at all.

20
20

而“套现”方案则让每位股东自行在现金收入与资本积累之间做出选择。一位股东可以选择每年变现,比如说,60% 的年利润,而其他股东可以选择变现 20% 或一分不取。当然,在我们派息方案下的股东,也可以反过来用股息购买更多股票。但这样做他会吃亏:他既要缴税,又要支付 25% 的溢价才能将股息再投资(请记住,公开市场买入股票是按账面价值的 125% 成交的)。股息方案的第二个缺点同样重要:对所有需要纳税的股东而言,其税务后果都比“套现”方案差——通常要差得多。在股息方案下,股东每年收到的所有现金都要纳税,而“套现”方案只对现金收入中的增值部分征税。让我结束这个数学练习——我能听到你们在我收起牙钻时的欢呼声——最后用我自己的例子来说明,股东定期处置股份的同时,如何反而增加了对企业的投资。过去七年里,我每年捐出约 4.25% 的伯克希尔股份。通过这个过程,我最初的 712,497,000 股 B 类等价股(经拆股调整后)已减少到 528,525,623 股。显然,我在公司的持股比例大幅下降了。然而,我对企业的投资实际上增加了:我目前在伯克希尔权益的账面价值,远远超过七年前我所持股份对应的账面价值(具体数字是:2005 年为 282 亿美元,2012 年为 402 亿美元)。换句话说,尽管我对公司的所有权已大幅减少,但如今替我在伯克希尔工作的钱却多得多。同样地,无论是伯克希尔的内在商业价值,还是其正常的盈利能力,我所享有的份额都远高于 2005 年。随着时间的推移,我预期这种价值的积累将会持续下去——尽管步伐会相当不规则——即使我如今每年捐出的股份已超过 4.5%(比例之所以上升,是因为我最近将向某些基金会的终身捐赠承诺翻了一番)。

The sell-off alternative, on the other hand, lets each shareholder make his own choice between cash receipts and capital build-up. One shareholder can elect to cash out, say, 60% of annual earnings while other shareholders elect 20% or nothing at all. Of course, a shareholder in our dividend-paying scenario could turn around and use his dividends to purchase more shares. But he would take a beating in doing so: He would both incur taxes and also pay a 25% premium to get his dividend reinvested. (Keep remembering, open-market purchases of the stock take place at 125% of book value.) The second disadvantage of the dividend approach is of equal importance: The tax consequences for all taxpaying shareholders are inferior – usually far inferior – to those under the sell-off program. Under the dividend program, all of the cash received by shareholders each year is taxed whereas the sell-off program results in tax on only the gain portion of the cash receipts. Let me end this math exercise – and I can hear you cheering as I put away the dentist drill – by using my own case to illustrate how a shareholder’s regular disposals of shares can be accompanied by an increased investment in his or her business. For the last seven years, I have annually given away about 4 1⁄ 4% of my Berkshire shares. Through this process, my original position of 712,497,000 B-equivalent shares (split-adjusted) has decreased to 528,525,623 shares. Clearly my ownership percentage of the company has significantly decreased. Yet my investment in the business has actually increased: The book value of my current interest in Berkshire considerably exceeds the book value attributable to my holdings of seven years ago. (The actual figures are $28.2 billion for 2005 and $40.2 billion for 2012.) In other words, I now have far more money working for me at Berkshire even though my ownership of the company has materially decreased. It’s also true that my share of both Berkshire’s intrinsic business value and the company’s normal earning power is far greater than it was in 2005. Over time, I expect this accretion of value to continue – albeit in a decidedly irregular fashion – even as I now annually give away more than 4 1⁄ 2% of my shares (the increase having occurred because I’ve recently doubled my lifetime pledges to certain foundations).

****

****

说到底,股息政策必须始终清晰、一致、合乎情理。反复无常的政策会把股东弄糊涂,也会吓跑有意进场的投资者。54 年前,菲利普·费雪在《怎样选择成长股》第七章里把这个道理讲得极为透彻——在严肃投资者心中的经典书单上,这本书仅次于《聪明的投资者》和 1940 年版的《证券分析》。费雪打了个比方:你可以把一家卖汉堡的餐馆经营得红火,也可以把一家主打中餐的餐馆经营得红火,可你要是在两者之间朝三暮四,就休想留住任何一拨食客。多数公司派发稳定的股息,通常力求逐年增加,不到万不得已绝不削减。我们的“四大”持仓公司都恪守这套明智又易懂的做法,其中几家还相当进取地回购股份。我们为它们的举动喝彩,也盼它们沿着现路走下去。我们喜欢股息增长,更钟爱价位合适的回购。可在伯克希尔,我们一贯走的是另一条路——我们知道它明智,也盼着你刚读过的那几段能把它讲明白。只要我们对账面价值累积与市场溢价的那些假设看来仍旧合理,我们就会坚持这一政策;一旦其中任何一项的前景实质性恶化,我们便会重新审视自己的做法。

Above all, dividend policy should always be clear, consistent and rational. A capricious policy will confuse owners and drive away would-be investors. Phil Fisher put it wonderfully 54 years ago in Chapter 7 of his Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits, a book that ranks behind only The Intelligent Investor and the 1940 edition of Security Analysis in the all-time-best list for the serious investor. Phil explained that you can successfully run a restaurant that serves hamburgers or, alternatively, one that features Chinese food. But you can’t switch capriciously between the two and retain the fans of either. Most companies pay consistent dividends, generally trying to increase them annually and cutting them very reluctantly. Our “Big Four” portfolio companies follow this sensible and understandable approach and, in certain cases, also repurchase shares quite aggressively. We applaud their actions and hope they continue on their present paths. We like increased dividends, and we love repurchases at appropriate prices. At Berkshire, however, we have consistently followed a different approach that we know has been sensible and that we hope has been made understandable by the paragraphs you have just read. We will stick with this policy as long as we believe our assumptions about the book-value buildup and the market-price premium seem reasonable. If the prospects for either factor change materially for the worse, we will reexamine our actions.

股东大会

The Annual Meeting

股东大会将于 5 月 4 日星期六在 CenturyLink 中心举行,由 Carrie Sova 主持筹办。(名字虽然换了,可她还是去年那位出色的 Carrie;6 月她嫁给了一位极其幸运的家伙。)我们总部全班人马都会来搭把手;整场活动都是我们自家出品,能有这样一群人把它张罗起来,我再自豪不过了。

The annual meeting will be held on Saturday, May 4th at the CenturyLink Center. Carrie Sova will be in charge. (Though that’s a new name, it’s the same wonderful Carrie as last year; she got married in June to a very lucky guy.) All of our headquarters group pitches in to help her; the whole affair is a homemade production, and I couldn’t be more proud of those who put it together.

21
21

早上 7 点开门,7:30 我们将举行第二届国际掷报挑战赛。靶子是一座克莱顿住宅(Clayton Home)的门廊,离投掷线正好 35 英尺。去年我成功击退了所有挑战者。可如今伯克希尔收购了一大批报纸,随之招来不少掷报高手(至少投手们自己是这么说的)。来看看他们的本事是不是跟他们的口气一样大吧。更好的是,你也下场来一把。报纸有 36 到 42 页,你得自己折(不许用橡皮筋)。8:30,将放映一部新的伯克希尔影片;一小时后开始问答环节,中间在 CenturyLink 的摊位歇一歇吃个午饭,一直持续到 3:30。短暂休息后,查理和我将于 3:45 召开股东大会。如果你在白天的问答时段想离场,请趁查理讲话时走。当然,离场最仗义的理由是去购物。我们特意把紧挨会场的 194,300 平方英尺大厅,摆满来自伯克希尔旗下几十家子公司的产品,助你离场。去年你们没少出力,大多数展位都创下销售纪录。九个小时里,我们卖出 1,090 双贾斯汀(Justin)靴子(每 30 秒一双)、10,010 磅喜诗糖果、12,879 把 Quikut 刀具(每分钟 24 把),还有 5,784 双一直抢手的 Wells Lamont 手套。但你们能做得更好。记住:谁说金钱买不来幸福,那不过是他没在我们的年会上购过物。去年,我们的跑鞋公司 Brooks 头一回参展,就做到 15 万美元的销售额。Brooks 势头正猛:2012 年销量增长 34%,而这是在 2011 年同样增长 34% 的基础上实现的;公司管理层预计 2013 年还要再涨 23%。今年年会上,我们仍会推出一款特别的纪念鞋。周日早上 8 点,我们将从 CenturyLink 起跑,举办一场“伯克希尔 5 公里跑”。报名详情会随参会证件一并夹在你收到的《访客指南》里。竞赛我们会设不少组别,其中还有一个媒体组(报道他们跑得如何,会很有意思)。遗憾的是,我只能弃跑——总得有个人举发令枪。提醒你一句,我们内部藏龙卧虎:泰德·韦施勒(Ted Weschler)跑马拉松的成绩是 3 小时 1 分;Brooks 那位活力四射的首席执行官 Jim Weber 也是个快腿,最好成绩 3 小时 31 分;托德·库姆斯(Todd Combs)擅长铁人三项,但 5 公里也跑出过 22 分钟。可这还只是开头:我们的董事也脚下生风(至少有那么几位是这样)。史蒂夫·伯克(Steve Burke)在波士顿马拉松跑出惊人的 2 小时 39 分(这是家族本事——他妻子格雷琴(Gretchen)以 3 小时 25 分跑完纽约马拉松);夏洛特·盖曼(Charlotte Guyman)的最好成绩是 3 小时 37 分,苏·德克尔(Sue Decker)在纽约以 3 小时 36 分冲线。查理没交回他那份问卷。GEICO 会在购物区设个展位,由来自全国各地的多位顶尖顾问坐镇。过去问一句报价吧。多数情况下,GEICO 都能给你一个股东折扣(通常是 8%)。这项特惠在我们经营业务的 51 个司法管辖区里,有 44 个允许。(补充一点:若你已符合别的折扣条件,比如某些团体折扣,这项折扣不能叠加。)带上你现有保单的详情,看看我们能不能替你省钱。我相信,对你们中至少一半人来说,我们能。别忘了去 Bookworm 逛逛,那里将陈列约 35 种图书和 DVD,其中包括几种新品。自 1977 年起就一直为我编辑这封信、帮了我大忙的卡罗尔·卢米斯(Carol Loomis),最近出了一本《跳着踢踏舞去上班:沃伦·巴菲特几乎无所不谈》。她和我在其中 500 本上共同签名,仅在年会上独家发售。小威廉·桑代克(William Thorndike, Jr.)的《商界局外人》(The Outsiders)是一本讲述那些资本配置高手 CEO 的杰出之作,书中有一章写到我们的董事汤姆·墨菲(Tom Murphy)——他是我见过的最好的企业管理者,写得很见功力。我还要推荐杰克·博格尔(Jack Bogle)的《文化冲突》(The Clash of the Cultures)和劳拉·里滕豪斯(Laura Rittenhouse)的《字里行间的投资》(Investing Between the Lines)。若你买的书需要寄送,附近备有邮寄服务。《奥马哈世界先驱报》也会再设一个展位,售卖它近来出版的几本书。热血的 Huskers 球迷——内布拉斯加人有谁不是吗?——想必都想收一本《不可战胜》(Unbeatable),它讲的是 1993 至 1997 年内布拉斯加橄榄球的故事,那是汤姆·奥斯本(Tom Osborne)麾下球队打出 60 胜 3 负的黄金年代。

The doors will open at 7 a.m., and at 7:30 we will have our second International Newspaper Tossing Challenge. The target will be the porch of a Clayton Home, precisely 35 feet from the throwing line. Last year I successfully fought off all challengers. But now Berkshire has acquired a large number of newspapers and with them came much tossing talent (or so the throwers claim). Come see whether their talent matches their talk. Better yet, join in. The papers will be 36 to 42 pages and you must fold them yourself (no rubber bands). At 8:30, a new Berkshire movie will be shown. An hour later, we will start the question-and-answer period, which (with a break for lunch at the CenturyLink’s stands) will last until 3:30. After a short recess, Charlie and I will convene the annual meeting at 3:45. If you decide to leave during the day’s question periods, please do so while Charlie is talking. The best reason to exit, of course, is to shop. We will help you do so by filling the 194,300-square-foot hall that adjoins the meeting area with products from dozens of Berkshire subsidiaries. Last year, you did your part, and most locations racked up record sales. In a nine-hour period, we sold 1,090 pairs of Justin boots, (that’s a pair every 30 seconds), 10,010 pounds of See’s candy, 12,879 Quikut knives (24 knives per minute) and 5,784 pairs of Wells Lamont gloves, always a hot item. But you can do better. Remember: Anyone who says money can’t buy happiness simply hasn’t shopped at our meeting. Last year, Brooks, our running shoe company, exhibited for the first time and ran up sales of $150,000. Brooks is on fire: Its volume in 2012 grew 34%, and that was on top of a similar 34% gain in 2011. The company’s management expects another jump of 23% in 2013. We will again have a special commemorative shoe to offer at the meeting. On Sunday at 8 a.m., we will initiate the “Berkshire 5K,” a race starting at the CenturyLink. Full details for participating will be included in the Visitor’s Guide that you will receive with your credentials for the meeting. We will have plenty of categories for competition, including one for the media. (It will be fun to report on their performance.) Regretfully, I will forego running; someone has to man the starting gun. I should warn you that we have a lot of home-grown talent. Ted Weschler has run the marathon in 3:01. Jim Weber, Brooks’ dynamic CEO, is another speedster with a 3:31 best. Todd Combs specializes in the triathlon, but has been clocked at 22 minutes in the 5K. That, however, is just the beginning: Our directors are also fleet of foot (that is, some of our directors are). Steve Burke has run an amazing 2:39 Boston marathon. (It’s a family thing; his wife, Gretchen, finished the New York marathon in 3:25.) Charlotte Guyman’s best is 3:37, and Sue Decker crossed the tape in New York in 3:36. Charlie did not return his questionnaire. GEICO will have a booth in the shopping area, staffed by a number of its top counselors from around the country. Stop by for a quote. In most cases, GEICO will be able to give you a shareholder discount (usually 8%). This special offer is permitted by 44 of the 51 jurisdictions in which we operate. (One supplemental point: The discount is not additive if you qualify for another, such as that given certain groups.) Bring the details of your existing insurance and check out whether we can save you money. For at least half of you, I believe we can. Be sure to visit the Bookworm. It will carry about 35 books and DVDs, including a couple of new ones. Carol Loomis, who has been invaluable to me in editing this letter since 1977, has recently authored Tap Dancing to Work: Warren Buffett on Practically Everything. She and I have cosigned 500 copies, available exclusively at the meeting. The Outsiders, by William Thorndike, Jr., is an outstanding book about CEOs who excelled at capital allocation. It has an insightful chapter on our director, Tom Murphy, overall the best business manager I’ve ever met. I also recommend The Clash of the Cultures by Jack Bogle and Laura Rittenhouse’s Investing Between the Lines. Should you need to ship your book purchases, a shipping service will be available nearby. The Omaha World-Herald will again have a booth, offering a few books it has recently published. Redblooded Husker fans – is there any Nebraskan who isn’t one? – will surely want to purchase Unbeatable. It tells the story of Nebraska football during 1993-97, a golden era in which Tom Osborne’s teams went 60-3.

22
22

你若是个花钱大手大脚的人——或立志成为这样的人——周六中午到下午 5 点之间,去奥马哈机场东侧的 Signature Aviation 转转。那里停着一队 NetJets 飞机,保管让你心跳加速。坐大巴来,坐私人飞机走。潇洒这一回。随本报告附上的代理材料里有一份附件,会说明如何领取入场股东大会及其他活动所需的凭证。航空公司有时会趁伯克希尔周末抬高票价。你若从远方赶来,不妨比一比飞堪萨斯城与飞奥马哈的价钱。两城之间开车约 2 个半小时,说不定能省下一大笔钱——尤其是你本打算在奥马哈租车的话。省下的钱,就用来跟我们买东西吧。在内布拉斯加家具城(Nebraska Furniture Mart,坐落于 72 街 Dodge 与 Pacific 之间一片 77 英亩的地块上),我们仍会有“伯克希尔周末”折扣价。去年这家店在年会促销期间做了 3,590 万美元的生意,创下历史新高,看得其他零售商眼红。要享受伯克希尔折扣,你须在 4 月 30 日星期二至 5 月 6 日星期一(含首尾两天)之间购物,并出示会议凭证。这一时段的特价,甚至适用于几家向来有铁规禁止打折的知名品牌——它们本着股东周末的精神为你破了例,我们感谢它们的配合。NFM 周一至周六上午 10 点营业至晚 9 点,周日上午 10 点至下午 6 点。今年周六下午 5:30 到晚 8 点,NFM 还会办一场野餐会,欢迎各位光临。在 Borsheims,我们照例为股东专办两场活动:头一场是 5 月 3 日星期五晚 6 点到 9 点的鸡尾酒会;第二场、也是重头戏的盛会,定在 5 月 5 日星期日上午 9 点到下午 4 点。周六我们营业到下午 6 点。近几年来,我们这三天的销售额已远超珠宝商生意最旺的整个 12 月。周日下午 1 点左右,我会亲自到 Borsheims 站柜台。去年我卖了 150 万美元,今年不做到 200 万我绝不收手。正因为我得在日落前早早离场,我会拼了命地做生意。来占我的便宜吧,管我要一个“疯狂沃伦”价。整个周末,Borsheims 都会人山人海。为方便各位,股东特价将从 4 月 29 日星期一延续到 5 月 11 日星期六;这期间,请出示会议凭证,或一份能证明你持有伯克希尔的券商对账单,以表明股东身份。周日,在 Borsheims 门外的商场里,两届美国国际象棋冠军帕特里克·沃尔夫(Patrick Wolff)将蒙眼迎战所有——睁着眼的——挑战者,每六人一批。一旁,来自达拉斯的杰出魔术师诺曼·贝克(Norman Beck)会把围观者看得目瞪口呆。此外,周日下午还会有两位世界顶尖桥牌高手鲍勃·哈曼(Bob Hamman)和莎伦·奥斯伯格(Sharon Osberg),陪我们的股东打上几局。跟他们玩,别赌钱。5 月 5 日星期日,Gorat’s 和 Piccolo’s 将再次专门向伯克希尔股东开放。两家都营业到晚 10 点,Gorat’s 下午 1 点开门,Piccolo’s 下午 4 点开门。这两家餐厅是我的心头好,周日晚上我两家都会去吃。记住:Gorat’s 订位请在 4 月 1 日(别提前)拨打 402-551-3733,Piccolo’s 订位请拨打 402-342-9038。在 Piccolo’s,甜点点一份巨型根汁汽水冰淇淋浮饮。点小份的才是娘娘腔。(我曾亲眼看到比尔·盖茨吃完整整一桌菜后,又干掉两份巨型的;就在那一刻,我认定他日后能当个出色的董事。)我们仍将邀请同三位财经记者在大会上主持问答环节,由他们向查理和我提问股东通过电子邮件提交的问题。这三位记者及其邮箱地址是:《财富》杂志的卡罗尔·卢米斯([email protected])、CNBC 的贝基·奎克([email protected])和《纽约时报》的安德鲁·罗斯·索金([email protected])。

If you are a big spender – or aspire to become one – visit Signature Aviation on the east side of the Omaha airport between noon and 5:00 p.m. on Saturday. There we will have a fleet of NetJets aircraft that will get your pulse racing. Come by bus; leave by private jet. Live a little. An attachment to the proxy material that is enclosed with this report explains how you can obtain the credential you will need for admission to the meeting and other events. Airlines have sometimes jacked up prices for the Berkshire weekend. If you are coming from far away, compare the cost of flying to Kansas City versus Omaha. The drive between the two cities is about 2 1⁄ 2 hours, and it may be that you can save significant money, particularly if you had planned to rent a car in Omaha. Spend the savings with us. At Nebraska Furniture Mart, located on a 77-acre site on 72nd Street between Dodge and Pacific, we will again be having “Berkshire Weekend” discount pricing. Last year the store did $35.9 million of business during its annual meeting sale, an all-time record that makes other retailers turn green. To obtain the Berkshire discount, you must make your purchases between Tuesday, April 30th and Monday, May 6th inclusive, and also present your meeting credential. The period’s special pricing will even apply to the products of several prestigious manufacturers that normally have ironclad rules against discounting but which, in the spirit of our shareholder weekend, have made an exception for you. We appreciate their cooperation. NFM is open from 10 a.m. to 9 p.m. Monday through Saturday, and 10 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Sunday. On Saturday this year, from 5:30 p.m. to 8 p.m., NFM is having a picnic to which you are all invited. At Borsheims, we will again have two shareholder-only events. The first will be a cocktail reception from 6 p.m. to 9 p.m. on Friday, May 3rd. The second, the main gala, will be held on Sunday, May 5th, from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. On Saturday, we will be open until 6 p.m. In recent years, our three-day volume has far exceeded sales in all of December, normally a jeweler’s best month. Around 1 p.m. on Sunday, I will begin clerking at Borsheims. Last year my sales totaled $1.5 million. This year I won’t quit until I hit $2 million. Because I need to leave well before sundown, I will be desperate to do business. Come take advantage of me. Ask for my “Crazy Warren” price. We will have huge crowds at Borsheims throughout the weekend. For your convenience, therefore, shareholder prices will be available from Monday, April 29th through Saturday, May 11th. During that period, please identify yourself as a shareholder by presenting your meeting credentials or a brokerage statement that shows you are a Berkshire holder. On Sunday, in the mall outside of Borsheims, a blindfolded Patrick Wolff, twice U.S. chess champion, will take on all comers – who will have their eyes wide open – in groups of six. Nearby, Norman Beck, a remarkable magician from Dallas, will bewilder onlookers. Additionally, we will have Bob Hamman and Sharon Osberg, two of the world’s top bridge experts, available to play bridge with our shareholders on Sunday afternoon. Don’t play them for money. Gorat’s and Piccolo’s will again be open exclusively for Berkshire shareholders on Sunday, May 5th. Both will be serving until 10 p.m., with Gorat’s opening at 1 p.m. and Piccolo’s opening at 4 p.m. These restaurants are my favorites, and I will eat at both of them on Sunday evening. Remember: To make a reservation at Gorat’s, call 402-551-3733 on April 1st (but not before) and at Piccolo’s call 402-342-9038. At Piccolo’s, order a giant root beer float for dessert. Only sissies get the small one. (I once saw Bill Gates polish off two of the giant variety after a full-course dinner; that’s when I knew he would make a great director.) We will again have the same three financial journalists lead the question-and-answer period at the meeting, asking Charlie and me questions that shareholders have submitted to them by e-mail. The journalists and their e-mail addresses are: Carol Loomis, of Fortune, who may be emailed at [email protected]; Becky Quick, of CNBC, at [email protected], and Andrew Ross Sorkin, of The New York Times, at [email protected].

23
23

从提交的问题中,每位记者将各自选出其认为最有趣、最重要的六个问题。记者们告诉我,若想让你的问题更有可能被选中,最好写得简洁一些,不要拖到最后一刻才提交,让问题与伯克希尔相关,并且每封邮件中提的问题不要超过两个。(在邮件中告诉该记者:如果你的问题被选中,你是否愿意记者提到你的名字。)去年,我们设立了第二个提问小组,成员是三位跟踪研究伯克希尔的分析师。这三位全是保险领域的专家,会后股东表示希望多一点多样性。因此,今年我们将只邀请一位保险分析师——野村证券的克里夫·加兰特(Cliff Gallant)。Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb 的乔纳森·布兰特(Jonathan Brandt)将加入分析师小组,专门就我们的非保险业务提问。最后,为了增加一些趣味,我们还想在小组中加入一位有资历的伯克希尔看空者,最好是正在做空该股票的人。目前看空者人选尚未确定,欢迎有意者自荐。唯一的要求是:你必须是一名投资专业人士,并且看空伯克希尔。三位分析师将带来各自针对伯克希尔的问题,与记者和现场股东交替提问。查理和我都认为,所有股东应当能够同时获取伯克希尔的新信息,并有充足时间加以分析。这也是为什么我们尽量在周五收盘后发布财务信息,以及为什么我们的股东大会在周六举行。我们不与大型机构投资者或分析师进行一对一会谈。我们希望记者和分析师提出的问题,能进一步增进股东对其投资的理解。至于具体会被问到什么问题,查理和我连一丁点线索都不会提前知道。我们知道记者和分析师一定会抛出一些刁钻的问题,而这正是我们乐见的。总的来说,我们预计至少会有 54 个问题,这样每位分析师和记者各有 6 个提问机会,现场股东则有 18 个提问机会。如果剩余一些时间,我们将从现场股东中再多取几个问题。提问的股东通过抽签决定,抽签将于上午 8:15 在场馆内以及主分会场的 11 处麦克风分别进行。

From the questions submitted, each journalist will choose the six he or she decides are the most interesting and important. The journalists have told me your question has the best chance of being selected if you keep it concise, avoid sending it in at the last moment, make it Berkshire-related and include no more than two questions in any email you send them. (In your email, let the journalist know if you would like your name mentioned if your question is selected.) Last year we had a second panel of three analysts who follow Berkshire. All were insurance specialists, and shareholders subsequently indicated they wanted a little more variety. Therefore, this year we will have one insurance analyst, Cliff Gallant of Nomura Securities. Jonathan Brandt of Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb will join the analyst panel to ask questions that deal with our non-insurance operations. Finally – to spice things up – we would like to add to the panel a credentialed bear on Berkshire, preferably one who is short the stock. Not yet having a bear identified, we would like to hear from applicants. The only requirement is that you be an investment professional and negative on Berkshire. The three analysts will bring their own Berkshire-specific questions and alternate with the journalists and the audience in asking them. Charlie and I believe that all shareholders should have access to new Berkshire information simultaneously and should also have adequate time to analyze it, which is why we try to issue financial information after the market close on a Friday and why our annual meeting is held on Saturdays. We do not talk one-on-one to large institutional investors or analysts. Our hope is that the journalists and analysts will ask questions that will further educate shareholders about their investment. Neither Charlie nor I will get so much as a clue about the questions to be asked. We know the journalists and analysts will come up with some tough ones, and that’s the way we like it. All told, we expect at least 54 questions, which will allow for six from each analyst and journalist and 18 from the audience. If there is some extra time, we will take more from the audience. Audience questioners will be determined by drawings that will take place at 8:15 a.m. at each of the 11 microphones located in the arena and main overflow room.

****

****

我经常夸赞旗下运营经理们的成就,这完全是有理由的。他们确实个个都是全明星,经营起企业来,就像那是自家名下唯一的一份资产。我相信,放眼大型上市公司,他们那份以股东为本的心态无人能出其右。他们中的大多数并不为钱而工作;击出商业“本垒打”的那份喜悦,对他们来说和薪水一样重要。

但同样重要的,还有在总部与我共事的那 23 位男女同事(全都在同一层楼办公,我们也打算一直这样!)。这群人利落地应付着大量的 SEC 及其他监管事务,报送一份 21,500 页的联邦所得税申报表以及各州和海外税表,回应数不清的股东与媒体来询,赶制年报,筹办全美规模最大的股东大会,统筹董事会的各项事务——这份清单还能一直列下去。他们把这一桩桩业务料理得欢欢喜喜,效率高得叫人难以置信,把我的日子过得又轻松又惬意。他们的付出还不止于伯克希尔本身:去年,他们接待了从 200 家申请院校里选出的 48 所大学,这些学校派学生来奥马哈,与我共度一场问答日。我收到的各式各样的请托,也归他们打理;他们替我安排行程,甚至给我买汉堡当午饭。再没有哪个首席执行官过得比我更好;我每天确实像跳着踢踏舞去上班。这个总部班子,连同我们的运营经理,理应得到我最深的谢意,也理应得到你们的感谢。5 月 4 日,来奥马哈——这座资本主义的摇篮——一同为他们喝彩吧。

For good reason, I regularly extol the accomplishments of our operating managers. They are truly AllStars, who run their businesses as if they were the only asset owned by their families. I believe their mindset to be as shareholder-oriented as can be found in the universe of large publicly-owned companies. Most have no financial need to work; the joy of hitting business “home runs” means as much to them as their paycheck. Equally important, however, are the 23 men and women who work with me at our corporate office (all on one floor, which is the way we intend to keep it!). This group efficiently deals with a multitude of SEC and other regulatory requirements, files a 21,500-page Federal income tax return as well as state and foreign returns, responds to countless shareholder and media inquiries, gets out the annual report, prepares for the country’s largest annual meeting, coordinates the Board’s activities – and the list goes on and on. They handle all of these business tasks cheerfully and with unbelievable efficiency, making my life easy and pleasant. Their efforts go beyond activities strictly related to Berkshire: Last year they dealt with 48 universities (selected from 200 applicants) who sent students to Omaha for a Q&A day with me. They also handle all kinds of requests that I receive, arrange my travel, and even get me hamburgers for lunch. No CEO has it better; I truly do feel like tap dancing to work every day. This home office crew, along with our operating managers, has my deepest thanks and deserves yours as well. Come to Omaha – the cradle of capitalism – on May 4th and chime in.

2013 年 3 月 1 日

March 1, 2013

沃伦·E·巴菲特 董事会主席

Warren E. Buffett Chairman of the Board

24
24