2019 年致股东信

致股东信 · 原文约 6974 词
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伯克希尔业绩 vs. 标普 500 指数:年度变动百分比

Berkshire’s Performance vs. the S&P 500 Annual Percentage Change

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

1965……1966……1967……1968……1969……1970……1971……1972……1973……1974……1975……1976……1977……1978……1979……1980……1981……1982……1983……1984……1985……1986……1987……1988……1989……1990……1991……1992……1993……1994……1995……1996……1997……1998……1999……2000……2001……2002……2003……2004……2005……2006……2007……2008……2009……2010……2011……2012……2013……2014……2015……2016……2017……2018……2019……年化复合收益率——1965-2019……整体收益率——1964-2019……

Year 1965 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1966 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1967 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1968 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1969 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1970 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1971 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1972 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1973 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1974 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1975 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1976 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1977 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1978 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1979 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1980 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1981 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1982 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1983 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1984 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1985 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1986 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1987 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1988 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1989 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1990 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1991 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1992 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1993 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1994 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1996 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1997 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1998 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1999 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2002 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2011 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2018 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2019 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Compounded Annual Gain – 1965-2019 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Overall Gain – 1964-2019 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

伯克希尔每股市场价值

in Per-Share Market Value of Berkshire

标普 500 指数(含股息)

in S&P 500 with Dividends Included

年度伯克希尔每股市场价值的年度百分比变化标普500指数含股息变动
196549.510.0
1966(3.4)(11.7)
196713.330.9
196877.811.0
196919.4(8.4)
1970(4.6)3.9
197180.514.6
19728.118.9
1973(2.5)(14.8)
1974(48.7)(26.4)
19752.537.2
1976129.323.6
197746.8(7.4)
197814.56.4
1979102.518.2
198032.832.3
198131.8(5.0)
198238.421.4
198369.022.4
1984(2.7)6.1
198593.731.6
198614.218.6
19874.65.1
198859.316.6
198984.631.7
1990(23.1)(3.1)
199135.630.5
199229.87.6
199338.910.1
199425.01.3
199557.437.6
19966.223.0
199734.933.4
199852.228.6
1999(19.9)21.0
200026.6(9.1)
20016.5(11.9)
2002(3.8)(22.1)
200315.828.7
20044.310.9
20050.84.9
200624.115.8
200728.75.5
2008(31.8)(37.0)
20092.726.5
201021.415.1
2011(4.7)2.1
201216.816.0
201332.732.4
201427.013.7
2015(12.5)1.4
201623.412.0
201721.921.8
20182.8(4.4)
201911.031.5
复合年化收益率 – 1965-201920.3%10.0%
整体收益——1964-20192,744,062%19,784%
YearAnnual Percentage Change in Per-Share Market Value of Berkshirein S&P 500 with Dividends Included
196549.510.0
1966(3.4)(11.7)
196713.330.9
196877.811.0
196919.4(8.4)
1970(4.6)3.9
197180.514.6
19728.118.9
1973(2.5)(14.8)
1974(48.7)(26.4)
19752.537.2
1976129.323.6
197746.8(7.4)
197814.56.4
1979102.518.2
198032.832.3
198131.8(5.0)
198238.421.4
198369.022.4
1984(2.7)6.1
198593.731.6
198614.218.6
19874.65.1
198859.316.6
198984.631.7
1990(23.1)(3.1)
199135.630.5
199229.87.6
199338.910.1
199425.01.3
199557.437.6
19966.223.0
199734.933.4
199852.228.6
1999(19.9)21.0
200026.6(9.1)
20016.5(11.9)
2002(3.8)(22.1)
200315.828.7
20044.310.9
20050.84.9
200624.115.8
200728.75.5
2008(31.8)(37.0)
20092.726.5
201021.415.1
2011(4.7)2.1
201216.816.0
201332.732.4
201427.013.7
2015(12.5)1.4
201623.412.0
201721.921.8
20182.8(4.4)
201911.031.5
Compounded Annual Gain – 1965-201920.3%10.0%
Overall Gain – 1964-20192,744,062%19,784%

注:数据按日历年统计,但有以下例外——1965 年和 1966 年截至 9 月 30 日,1967 年为截至 12 月 31 日的 15 个月。

Note: Data are for calendar years with these exceptions: 1965 and 1966, year ended 9/30; 1967, 15 months ended 12/31.

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伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.

致伯克希尔·哈撒韦股份有限公司全体股东:

To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

按照美国通用会计准则(业内常称“GAAP”),伯克希尔 2019 年盈利 814 亿美元。这个数字由三部分构成:经营利润 240 亿美元、已实现资本收益 37 亿美元,以及我们所持股票未实现资本收益净额增加所带来的 537 亿美元收益。三部分均为税后数字。其中那 537 亿美元有必要解释一下。它来自 2018 年开始实施的一条新 GAAP 规则,该规则要求持有权益证券的公司,把这些证券未实现损益的净变化计入当期收益。正如去年的信中所言,无论是与我共同管理伯克希尔的合伙人查理·芒格,还是我本人,都不认同这条规则。会计界采纳它,实际上是其自身思维的一次重大转向。2018 年之前,GAAP 一直坚持——除以证券交易为主业的公司外——股票投资组合中的未实现收益一律不得计入收益,未实现损失也只有在被认定为“非暂时性”时才计入。而如今,伯克希尔必须把所持股票的每一次涨跌,无论多么反复无常,都写进每个季度的利润底线——这可是许多投资者、分析师和评论员紧盯的关键数据。伯克希尔 2018 年和 2019 年的表现,恰好把我们反对这条规则的理由摆得明明白白。2018 年股市下跌,我们的未实现收益净额减少了 206 亿美元,于是当年报告的 GAAP 收益只有 40 亿美元。2019 年股价回升,未实现收益净额增加了前面提到的 537 亿美元,把 GAAP 收益一举推高到本信开头所报的 814 亿美元。市场这么一折腾,GAAP 收益竟疯涨了 1,900%!可是,在我们不妨称之为真实世界(相对于会计世界而言)的地方,伯克希尔这两年持有的股票平均约为 2000 亿美元,我们所持股票的内在价值也在整段时间里稳步大幅增长。查理和我恳请各位盯住经营利润——2019 年它几乎没什么变化——而把投资带来的季度和年度损益,无论已实现还是未实现,统统忽略掉。我们这样建议,绝不意味着这些投资对伯克希尔无足轻重。放长了看,查理和我预期我们的持股组合作为整体将带来可观收益,只是节奏难以预料、极不规律。想知道我们为何乐观,请看下文。

Berkshire earned $81.4 billion in 2019 according to generally accepted accounting principles (commonly called “GAAP”). The components of that figure are $24 billion of operating earnings, $3.7 billion of realized capital gains and a $53.7 billion gain from an increase in the amount of net unrealized capital gains that exist in the stocks we hold. Each of those components of earnings is stated on an after-tax basis. That $53.7 billion gain requires comment. It resulted from a new GAAP rule, imposed in 2018, that requires a company holding equity securities to include in earnings the net change in the unrealized gains and losses of those securities. As we stated in last year’s letter, neither Charlie Munger, my partner in managing Berkshire, nor I agree with that rule. The adoption of the rule by the accounting profession, in fact, was a monumental shift in its own thinking. Before 2018, GAAP insisted – with an exception for companies whose business was to trade securities – that unrealized gains within a portfolio of stocks were never to be included in earnings and unrealized losses were to be included only if they were deemed “other than temporary.” Now, Berkshire must enshrine in each quarter’s bottom line – a key item of news for many investors, analysts and commentators – every up and down movement of the stocks it owns, however capricious those fluctuations may be. Berkshire’s 2018 and 2019 years glaringly illustrate the argument we have with the new rule. In 2018, a down year for the stock market, our net unrealized gains decreased by $20.6 billion, and we therefore reported GAAP earnings of only $4 billion. In 2019, rising stock prices increased net unrealized gains by the aforementioned $53.7 billion, pushing GAAP earnings to the $81.4 billion reported at the beginning of this letter. Those market gyrations led to a crazy 1,900% increase in GAAP earnings! Meanwhile, in what we might call the real world, as opposed to accounting-land, Berkshire’s equity holdings averaged about $200 billion during the two years, and the intrinsic value of the stocks we own grew steadily and substantially throughout the period. Charlie and I urge you to focus on operating earnings – which were little changed in 2019 – and to ignore both quarterly and annual gains or losses from investments, whether these are realized or unrealized. Our advising that in no way diminishes the importance of these investments to Berkshire. Over time, Charlie and I expect our equity holdings – as a group – to deliver major gains, albeit in an unpredictable and highly irregular manner. To see why we are optimistic, move on to the next discussion.

留存收益的力量

The Power of Retained Earnings

1924 年,一位名不见经传的经济学家兼财务顾问埃德加·劳伦斯·史密斯,写出了一本改变投资世界的薄薄小书——《普通股作为长期投资》。事实上,写这本书也改变了史密斯本人,逼他重新审视自己的投资信念。动笔之初,他本想论证:通胀时期股票表现优于债券,通缩时期债券回报更佳。这套说法本身颇有道理,可史密斯却撞上了意外。

In 1924, Edgar Lawrence Smith, an obscure economist and financial advisor, wrote Common Stocks as Long Term Investments, a slim book that changed the investment world. Indeed, writing the book changed Smith himself, forcing him to reassess his own investment beliefs. Going in, he planned to argue that stocks would perform better than bonds during inflationary periods and that bonds would deliver superior returns during deflationary times. That seemed sensible enough. But Smith was in for a shock.

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于是他在书的开篇坦承:“这些研究记录的是一次失败——事实未能支撑一个先入为主的理论。”对投资者而言幸运的是,正是这次失败促使史密斯更深地思考股票究竟该如何估值。要点出史密斯洞见的核心,我想引用他这本书一位早期书评人的话,此人不是别人,正是约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯:“我把史密斯先生也许最重要、当然也最新颖的一点留到最后来讲。管理良好的实业公司,通常不会把赚得的利润全部分给股东。在景气的年份,甚至不止是景气年份,它们会留下一部分利润重新投入经营。于是就有一种复利的力量(凯恩斯原文用斜体)在为稳健的实业投资效力。经过若干年,一家稳健实业公司资产的实际价值会以复利递增,这还没算上派给股东的股息。”经凯恩斯这一番点化,史密斯从此声名鹊起。

真正难以理解的是,在史密斯这本书问世之前,投资者为何对留存收益视而不见。毕竟,卡内基、洛克菲勒、福特这些巨头早就靠留存绝大部分经营利润来支撑增长、赚取更多利润,从而积起惊人财富,这本不是什么秘密。全美各地,也一直有小资本家循着同一套路发家。然而,一旦企业所有权被切成小块——也就是“股票”——史密斯之前那些年的买家,通常只把股票当成对市场涨跌的短线赌注。哪怕看得最重,股票也不过是投机。绅士们钟情的是债券。

尽管投资者醒悟得慢,留存利润再投资的算术如今已是常识。今天连小学生都懂得凯恩斯当年称之为“新颖”的道理:储蓄加上复利,能创造奇迹。

His book began, therefore, with a confession: “These studies are the record of a failure – the failure of facts to sustain a preconceived theory.” Luckily for investors, that failure led Smith to think more deeply about how stocks should be evaluated. For the crux of Smith’s insight, I will quote an early reviewer of his book, none other than John Maynard Keynes: “I have kept until last what is perhaps Mr. Smith’s most important, and is certainly his most novel, point. Well-managed industrial companies do not, as a rule, distribute to the shareholders the whole of their earned profits. In good years, if not in all years, they retain a part of their profits and put them back into the business. Thus there is an element of compound interest (Keynes’ italics) operating in favour of a sound industrial investment. Over a period of years, the real value of the property of a sound industrial is increasing at compound interest, quite apart from the dividends paid out to the shareholders.” And with that sprinkling of holy water, Smith was no longer obscure. It’s difficult to understand why retained earnings were unappreciated by investors before Smith’s book was published. After all, it was no secret that mind-boggling wealth had earlier been amassed by such titans as Carnegie, Rockefeller and Ford, all of whom had retained a huge portion of their business earnings to fund growth and produce ever-greater profits. Throughout America, also, there had long been small-time capitalists who became rich following the same playbook. Nevertheless, when business ownership was sliced into small pieces – “stocks” – buyers in the pre-Smith years usually thought of their shares as a short-term gamble on market movements. Even at their best, stocks were considered speculations. Gentlemen preferred bonds. Though investors were slow to wise up, the math of retaining and reinvesting earnings is now well understood. Today, school children learn what Keynes termed “novel”: combining savings with compound interest works wonders.

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在伯克希尔,查理和我很早就把心思花在如何用好留存收益上。这活儿有时轻松,有时却难得很,尤其是当我们开始摆布规模庞大、还在不断膨胀的资金时。动用留存资金,我们首先想到的是投向已经握在手里的众多不同业务。过去十年,伯克希尔的折旧费用累计 650 亿美元,而公司对厂房、设备等固定资产的内部投资合计 1210 亿美元。把钱重新投入能创造产出的经营资产,永远是我们的头等大事。除此之外,我们也不断物色符合三条标准的新收购对象。其一,它必须能在运营所需的净有形资本上赚取可观回报;其二,它必须由能干且诚实的经理人掌管;其三,它的价格必须合理。一旦相中这样的企业,我们最想做的是把它 100% 买下。可惜,能满足我们条件的大宗收购机会实在难觅。更多时候,是喜怒无常的股市送上门来,让我们得以在合乎标准的上市公司里买下大额但不控股的头寸。无论走哪条路——是收下整家公司,还是仅在股市上持有一大块股权——伯克希尔从中获得的财务回报,大部分终究取决于我们买下的这门生意未来能赚多少。不过,这两种投资方式之间有一处极其重要的会计差异,各位务必弄清。

At Berkshire, Charlie and I have long focused on using retained earnings advantageously. Sometimes this job has been easy – at other times, more than difficult, particularly when we began working with huge and evergrowing sums of money. In our deployment of the funds we retain, we first seek to invest in the many and diverse businesses we already own. During the past decade, Berkshire’s depreciation charges have aggregated $65 billion whereas the company’s internal investments in property, plant and equipment have totaled $121 billion. Reinvestment in productive operational assets will forever remain our top priority. In addition, we constantly seek to buy new businesses that meet three criteria. First, they must earn good returns on the net tangible capital required in their operation. Second, they must be run by able and honest managers. Finally, they must be available at a sensible price. When we spot such businesses, our preference would be to buy 100% of them. But the opportunities to make major acquisitions possessing our required attributes are rare. Far more often, a fickle stock market serves up opportunities for us to buy large, but non-controlling, positions in publicly-traded companies that meet our standards. Whichever way we go – controlled companies or only a major stake by way of the stock market – Berkshire’s financial results from the commitment will in large part be determined by the future earnings of the business we have purchased. Nonetheless, there is between the two investment approaches a hugely important accounting difference, essential for you to understand.

4
4

在我们控股的公司(指伯克希尔持股超过 50% 者)里,每家企业的利润会径直汇入我们向各位报告的经营利润,看到多少就是多少。而在非控股公司,也就是我们持有的那些可流通股票里,只有伯克希尔实际收到的股息才计入我们报告的经营利润。那么留存收益呢?它们正埋头苦干,创造出大量增值,却不会以直接进账的方式落进伯克希尔报告的利润。除伯克希尔之外,几乎所有大公司的投资者都不会把这种姑且称为“收益未确认”的现象放在心上。可对我们而言,这却是一处扎眼的遗漏,其规模之大,下面就摊开给各位看。这里,我们列出所持的 10 大股票投资标的。表中区分两类数字:一类是按 GAAP 报告给各位的收益,也就是伯克希尔从这 10 家被投资公司收到的股息;另一类则是这些公司留存下来、投入运营的收益中,姑且算作“我们”的那份。这些公司通常会用留存收益扩张业务、提升效率,有时也会拿这笔钱大手笔回购自家股份——此举会把伯克希尔在其未来收益中所占的份额做大。

In our controlled companies, (defined as those in which Berkshire owns more than 50% of the shares), the earnings of each business flow directly into the operating earnings that we report to you. What you see is what you get. In the non-controlled companies, in which we own marketable stocks, only the dividends that Berkshire receives are recorded in the operating earnings we report. The retained earnings? They’re working hard and creating much added value, but not in a way that deposits those gains directly into Berkshire’s reported earnings. At almost all major companies other than Berkshire, investors would not find what we’ll call this “nonrecognition of earnings” important. For us, however, it is a standout omission, of a magnitude that we lay out for you below. Here, we list our 10 largest stock-market holdings of businesses. The list distinguishes between their earnings that are reported to you under GAAP accounting – these are the dividends Berkshire receives from those 10 investees – and our share, so to speak, of the earnings the investees retain and put to work. Normally, those companies use retained earnings to expand their business and increase its efficiency. Or sometimes they use those funds to repurchase significant portions of their own stock, an act that enlarges Berkshire’s share of the company’s future earnings.

美国运通、苹果、美国银行、纽约梅隆银行、可口可乐、达美航空、摩根大通、穆迪、美国合众银行、富国银行

Company American Express Apple Bank of America Bank of New York Mellon Coca-Cola Delta Airlines J.P. Morgan Chase Moody’s U.S. Bancorp Wells Fargo

年末持股

Yearend Ownership

伯克希尔所占份额(单位:百万美元) 股息(1) 留存收益(2)

Berkshire’s Share (in millions) Dividends(1) Retained Earnings(2)

公司年末持股股息(1)伯克希尔份额(百万美元)留存收益(2)
美国运通18.7%$ 261$ 998
苹果5.7%7732,519
美国银行10.7%6822,167
纽约梅隆银行9.0%101288
可口可乐9.3%640194
达美航空11.0%114416
摩根大通1.9%216476
穆迪13.1%55137
美国合众银行9.7%251407
富国银行8.4%705730
总计$3,798$8,332
CompanyYearend OwnershipDividends(1)Berkshire’s Share (in millions) Retained Earnings(2)
American Express18.7%$ 261$ 998
Apple5.7%7732,519
Bank of America10.7%6822,167
Bank of New York Mellon9.0%101288
Coca-Cola9.3%640194
Delta Airlines11.0%114416
J.P. Morgan Chase1.9%216476
Moody’s13.1%55137
U.S. Bancorp9.7%251407
Wells Fargo8.4%705730
Total$3,798$8,332

(1)按当前年化利率计。(2)按 2019 年收益减去已付普通股和优先股股息计。当然,我们从部分持有这些公司中最终实现的已实现利得,不会与我们“应占”的那份留存收益恰好吻合。有时,唉,留存收益毫无产出。但无论逻辑还是过往经验都表明,从这些公司整体来看,我们实现的资本利得,至少会等于——而且很可能超过——它们替我们留存的那部分收益。(当我们卖出股票、实现收益时,将按当时的适用税率就利得缴纳所得税。目前联邦税率是 21%。)可以肯定,伯克希尔从这 10 家公司以及众多其他参股中获得的回报,将表现为极其不规则的形态。期间会出现亏损,有时是公司特有原因,有时则与股市暴跌相关。另一些时候——去年就是一次——我们的收益会格外庞大。总体而言,我们被投资方的留存收益,必定会在伯克希尔价值的增长中发挥举足轻重的作用。史密斯先生说对了。

(1) Based on current annual rate. (2) Based on 2019 earnings minus common and preferred dividends paid. Obviously, the realized gains we will eventually record from partially owning each of these companies will not neatly correspond to “our” share of their retained earnings. Sometimes, alas, retentions produce nothing. But both logic and our past experience indicate that from the group we will realize capital gains at least equal to – and probably better than – the earnings of ours that they retained. (When we sell shares and realize gains, we will pay income tax on the gain at whatever rate then prevails. Currently, the federal rate is 21%.) It is certain that Berkshire’s rewards from these 10 companies, as well as those from our many other equity holdings, will manifest themselves in a highly irregular manner. Periodically, there will be losses, sometimes company-specific, sometimes linked to stock-market swoons. At other times – last year was one of those – our gain will be outsized. Overall, the retained earnings of our investees are certain to be of major importance in the growth of Berkshire’s value. Mr. Smith got it right.

5
5

非保险业务。汤姆·墨菲是伯克希尔一位宝贵的董事,也是商界经理人中难得的一位传奇。很久以前,他就收购一事给过我一条要紧的忠告:“想落个好经理人的名声,你只要保证买下的是好生意就行。”这些年来,伯克希尔收购了几十家公司,当初我个个都当成“好生意”。可其中有些令人失望,还有不止几家干脆是彻头彻尾的灾难;另一方面,也有相当一批超出了我的期望。回看这份良莠不齐的成绩单,我得出一个结论:收购和婚姻很像——起头当然都是一场喜气洋洋的婚礼,可随后现实往往就和婚前的憧憬岔开了道。有时妙不可言,新结合带来的美满超出双方所望;另一些时候,幻灭来得飞快。把这套比喻搬到企业收购上,我不得不说,撞上不快意外的通常是买家。企业求偶期里,人很容易看得两眼发花。顺着这个类比说下去,我们的婚姻记录大体还算过得去,各方都对当年的决定心满意足。有几桩联姻简直如田园诗般美满;可也有相当一批,很快就让我纳闷自己当初求婚时脑子里到底在想什么。所幸,我不少失误的后果都被一个特点冲淡了——多数令人失望的生意都有这个共性:随着年头推移,那些“差”生意往往停滞不前,随之进入一种状态,占用伯克希尔资本的比例越来越小。与此同时,我们的“好”生意往往能持续增长,还能不断找到以诱人回报率追加投资的机会。正因这两条截然相反的轨迹,伯克希尔赢家所动用的资产,在总资本中占的比重会一点点扩大。要看这种财务演变的极端例子,不妨瞧瞧伯克希尔起家的那门纺织生意。1965 年初我们取得公司控制权时,这个四面楚歌的业务几乎吃掉了伯克希尔全部资本。因此在相当长一段时间里,伯克希尔那些不赚钱的纺织资产对整体回报是个巨大拖累。所幸后来我们陆续收下一批“好”生意,到 80 年代初,日渐萎缩的纺织业务已只占用我们一丁点资本。今天,各位的钱大多已投在我们控股的企业里,它们在各自运营所需的净有形资产上都能取得良好乃至出色的回报。其中保险业务一直是超级明星。这门生意有其特殊之处,衡量它是否成功需要一个独特的尺度,许多投资者对此并不熟悉,我们留到下一节再谈。接下来这几段,我们把旗下形形色色的非保险业务按利润高低分组——这里的利润,是扣除利息、折旧、税收、非现金薪酬、重组费用之后的数字,这些开销虽讨人厌却实实在在,可 CEO 和华尔街有时偏偏劝投资者别去理会。这些业务的更多信息,可查年报第 K-6 至 K-21 页以及第 K-40 至 K-52 页。我们的 BNSF 铁路和伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司(简称“BHE”)是非保险板块的两条头犬,2019 年合计盈利 83 亿美元(BHE 只计入我们 91% 的份额),比 2018 年增长 6%。按利润排名紧随其后的五家非保险子公司(此处按字母顺序列出)——克莱顿房屋、国际金属加工、路博润、马蒙、精密铸件——2019 年合计盈利 48 亿美元,与它们 2018 年的水平相差无几。再往下同样按此排名列出的五家(伯克希尔·哈撒韦汽车、约翰斯·曼维尔、NetJets、肖氏、TTI),去年合计盈利 19 亿美元,高于这一档 2018 年的 17 亿美元。

Non-Insurance Operations Tom Murphy, a valued director of Berkshire and an all-time great among business managers, long ago gave me some important advice about acquisitions: “To achieve a reputation as a good manager, just be sure you buy good businesses.” Over the years Berkshire has acquired many dozens of companies, all of which I initially regarded as “good businesses.” Some, however, proved disappointing; more than a few were outright disasters. A reasonable number, on the other hand, have exceeded my hopes. In reviewing my uneven record, I’ve concluded that acquisitions are similar to marriage: They start, of course, with a joyful wedding – but then reality tends to diverge from pre-nuptial expectations. Sometimes, wonderfully, the new union delivers bliss beyond either party’s hopes. In other cases, disillusionment is swift. Applying those images to corporate acquisitions, I’d have to say it is usually the buyer who encounters unpleasant surprises. It’s easy to get dreamy-eyed during corporate courtships. Pursuing that analogy, I would say that our marital record remains largely acceptable, with all parties happy with the decisions they made long ago. Some of our tie-ups have been positively idyllic. A meaningful number, however, have caused me all too quickly to wonder what I was thinking when I proposed. Fortunately, the fallout from many of my errors has been reduced by a characteristic shared by most businesses that disappoint: As the years pass, the “poor” business tends to stagnate, thereupon entering a state in which its operations require an ever-smaller percentage of Berkshire’s capital. Meanwhile, our “good” businesses often tend to grow and find opportunities for investing additional capital at attractive rates. Because of these contrasting trajectories, the assets employed at Berkshire’s winners gradually become an expanding portion of our total capital. As an extreme example of those financial movements, witness Berkshire’s original textile business. When we acquired control of the company in early 1965, this beleaguered operation required nearly all of Berkshire’s capital. For some time, therefore, Berkshire’s non-earning textile assets were a huge drag on our overall returns. Eventually, though, we acquired a spread of “good” businesses, a shift that by the early 1980s caused the dwindling textile operation to employ only a tiny portion of our capital. Today, we have most of your money deployed in controlled businesses that achieve good-to-excellent returns on the net tangible assets each requires for its operations. Our insurance business has been the superstar. That operation has special characteristics that give it a unique metric for calibrating success, one unfamiliar to many investors. We will save that discussion for the next section. In the paragraphs that follow, we group our wide array of non-insurance businesses by size of earnings, after interest, depreciation, taxes, non-cash compensation, restructuring charges – all of those pesky, but very real, costs that CEOs and Wall Street sometimes urge investors to ignore. Additional information about these operations can be found on pages K-6 – K-21 and pages K-40 – K-52. Our BNSF railroad and Berkshire Hathaway Energy (“BHE”) – the two lead dogs of Berkshire’s noninsurance group – earned a combined $8.3 billion in 2019 (including only our 91% share of BHE), an increase of 6% from 2018. Our next five non-insurance subsidiaries, as ranked by earnings (but presented here alphabetically), Clayton Homes, International Metalworking, Lubrizol, Marmon and Precision Castparts, had aggregate earnings in 2019 of $4.8 billion, little changed from what these companies earned in 2018. The next five, similarly ranked and listed (Berkshire Hathaway Automotive, Johns Manville, NetJets, Shaw and TTI) earned $1.9 billion last year, up from the $1.7 billion earned by this tier in 2018.

6
6

伯克希尔所持其余非保险业务——数量还不少——2019 年合计盈利 27 亿美元,略低于 2018 年的 28 亿美元。我们控股的非保险业务 2019 年净利润合计 177 亿美元,较该组 2018 年的 172 亿美元增长 3%。收购与出售对这些结果几乎没有净影响。

The remaining non-insurance businesses that Berkshire owns – and there are many – had aggregate earnings of $2.7 billion in 2019, down from $2.8 billion in 2018. Our total net income in 2019 from the non-insurance businesses we control amounted to $17.7 billion, an increase of 3% from the $17.2 billion this group earned in 2018. Acquisitions and dispositions had almost no net effect on these results.

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我还必须补充最后一项,这恰好突显了伯克希尔业务范围的广阔。自 2011 年起,我们一直持有路博润,这是一家总部位于俄亥俄州、在全球范围生产和销售润滑油添加剂的公司。2019 年 9 月 26 日,从隔壁一家小型工厂燃起的火灾蔓延至路博润在法国的一座大型工厂,造成重大财产损失,并严重冲击了路博润的业务。即便如此,公司的财产损失和营业中断损失都将因路博润将获得的大额保险赔款而得以缓解。但是,正如已故的保罗·哈维在他那档著名广播节目中常说的:“且听故事的另一半。”路博润最大的承保商之一,是一家由……呃,伯克希尔拥有的公司。在《马太福音》第 6 章第 3 节中,圣经教导我们:“不要叫左手知道右手所做的。”你们的董事长显然遵命行事了。

I must add one final item that underscores the wide scope of Berkshire’s operations. Since 2011, we have owned Lubrizol, an Ohio-based company that produces and markets oil additives throughout the world. On September 26, 2019, a fire originating at a small next-door operation spread to a large French plant owned by Lubrizol. The result was significant property damage and a major disruption in Lubrizol’s business. Even so, both the company’s property loss and business-interruption loss will be mitigated by substantial insurance recoveries that Lubrizol will receive. But, as the late Paul Harvey was given to saying in his famed radio broadcasts, “Here’s the rest of the story.” One of the largest insurers of Lubrizol was a company owned by . . . uh, Berkshire. In Matthew 6:3, the Bible instructs us to “Let not the left hand know what the right hand doeth.” Your chairman has clearly behaved as ordered.

财产/意外险

Property/Casualty Insurance

我们的财产/意外险(“P/C”)业务,自 1967 年起就是驱动伯克希尔前行的引擎——那一年我们以 860 万美元收购了国民赔偿公司及其姐妹公司国民火险与海事公司。如今,按净资产衡量,国民赔偿公司是全球最大的财产/意外险公司。保险是一项关乎承诺的生意,而伯克希尔履行承诺的能力是无可匹敌的。当初我们被财产/意外险行业吸引的原因之一,正是它的商业模式:财产/意外险公司先收取保费,事后才支付赔款。在极端情况下,例如因接触石棉或严重工伤事故引发的索赔,赔付可以持续数十年之久。这种先收钱、后付款的模式,让财产/意外险公司持有大量资金——我们称之为“浮存金”——这笔钱最终会支付给别人。在这期间,保险公司可以用这些浮存金为自己谋利去投资。虽然单张保单和单笔理赔有来有往,但保险公司持有的浮存金总额相对于保费规模,通常相当稳定。因此,随着我们业务增长,浮存金也随之增长。至于它增长得有多快,看下表便知:

Our property/casualty (“P/C”) insurance business has been the engine propelling Berkshire’s growth since 1967, the year we acquired National Indemnity and its sister company, National Fire & Marine, for $8.6 million. Today, National Indemnity is the largest P/C company in the world as measured by net worth. Insurance is a business of promises, and Berkshire’s ability to honor its commitments is unmatched. One reason we were attracted to the P/C business was the industry’s business model: P/C insurers receive premiums upfront and pay claims later. In extreme cases, such as claims arising from exposure to asbestos, or severe workplace accidents, payments can stretch over many decades. This collect-now, pay-later model leaves P/C companies holding large sums – money we call “float” – that will eventually go to others. Meanwhile, insurers get to invest this float for their own benefit. Though individual policies and claims come and go, the amount of float an insurer holds usually remains fairly stable in relation to premium volume. Consequently, as our business grows, so does our float. And how it has grown, as the following

下表所示:

table shows:

年份

Year

浮存金(单位:百万美元)

Float (in millions)

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2018 2019
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2018 2019

$

$

39 237 1,632 27,871 65,832 122,732 129,423
39 237 1,632 27,871 65,832 122,732 129,423

未来某一天,我们也许会出现浮存金下降。若果真如此,这一下降将极为平缓——任何一年降幅至多不超过 3%。我们保险合同的特性,决定了我们永远不会面临要求立刻或在短期内拿出对我们现金资源有实质影响的大额资金的情况。这一结构是刻意设计的,也是我们各保险公司无与伦比的财务实力的一个关键组成部分。这份实力永远不会被削弱。

We may in time experience a decline in float. If so, the decline will be very gradual – at the outside no more than 3% in any year. The nature of our insurance contracts is such that we can never be subject to immediate or nearterm demands for sums that are of significance to our cash resources. That structure is by design and is a key component in the unequaled financial strength of our insurance companies. That strength will never be compromised.

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7

如果我们的保费收入超过费用与最终赔付之和,保险业务便实现了承保利润,该利润进一步叠加在浮存金所产生的投资收益之上。一旦赚得这种利润,我们享用的便是免费用资金——更妙的是,拿着这笔钱还有人付我们报酬。对财产/意外险行业整体而言,如今浮存金的财务价值已远逊于以往很多年。原因在于,几乎所有财产/意外险公司的标准投资策略都严重——且理当如此——偏向高等级债券。因此,利率变动对这些公司影响巨大,而过去十年间,债券市场提供的收益率低得可怜。于是,保险公司逐年受损,因为债券到期或发行人赎回条款,迫使它们不得不将“老旧”的投资组合滚动置换成收益率低得多的新持仓。这些保险公司过去每 1 美元浮存金还能安稳赚进 5 美分或 6 美分,如今只能赚进 2 美分或 3 美分(如果其业务集中在那些深陷负利率“永无乡”的国家,收益甚至更少)。有些保险公司或许试图通过购买低评级债券或承诺更高收益率的非流动性“另类”投资来弥补收入损失。但这些都是危险的游戏和活动,绝大多数机构并不具备参与其中的能力。

伯克希尔的境况比一般保险公司更为有利。最重要的是,我们无人能及的庞大资本金、充裕的现金,以及规模巨大且多元的非保险业务盈利,使我们拥有远超同行业其他公司通常所能享有的投资灵活性。摆在我们面前的众多选择总是有利的——有时还为我们带来重大机遇。与此同时,我们的财产/意外险公司保持了出色的承保记录。过去 17 年里,伯克希尔有 16 年实现了承保利润,唯一例外是 2017 年,当时我们的税前亏损高达 32 亿美元。整段 17 年间,我们的税前利润总计 275 亿美元,其中 4 亿美元记录在 2019 年。这份记录绝非偶然:严守纪律的风险评估,是我们保险经理人每天的关注焦点,他们深知,浮存金的回报可能被糟糕的承保结果吞噬殆尽。所有保险公司都把这句话挂在嘴上。在伯克希尔,它是一种信仰,旧约式的信仰。

正如我过去一再强调的,我现在要再次强调,保险业的好结果远非板上钉钉之事:我们在未来 17 年里,几乎肯定不会再有 16 年实现承保利润。危险始终潜伏。评估保险风险时犯下的错误可能代价巨大,并可能历经多年——甚至数十年——才浮出水面并酿成恶果。(试想石棉的例子。)一场令飓风卡特里娜和迈克尔都相形见绌的巨灾必将发生——也许在明天,也许在几十年后。“那场大灾”可能源自风暴或地震等传统源头,也可能完全出人意料,比如一次网络攻击,其灾难性后果将远超任何保险公司当前所能设想的范畴。当这样一场超级巨灾降临时,伯克希尔会承受属于自己的那份损失,而且损失会很大——极其巨大。然而,与众多其他保险公司不同,处理这笔损失远不至于耗尽我们的家底,而且第二天,我们就会迫不及待地想要承接更多业务。

If our premiums exceed the total of our expenses and eventual losses, our insurance operation registers an underwriting profit that adds to the investment income the float produces. When such a profit is earned, we enjoy the use of free money – and, better yet, get paid for holding it. For the P/C industry as a whole, the financial value of float is now far less than it was for many years. That’s because the standard investment strategy for almost all P/C companies is heavily – and properly – skewed toward high-grade bonds. Changes in interest rates therefore matter enormously to these companies, and during the last decade the bond market has offered pathetically low rates. Consequently, insurers suffered, as year by year they were forced – by maturities or issuer-call provisions – to recycle their “old” investment portfolios into new holdings providing much lower yields. Where once these insurers could safely earn 5 cents or 6 cents on each dollar of float, they now take in only 2 cents or 3 cents (or even less if their operations are concentrated in countries mired in the never-never land of negative rates). Some insurers may try to mitigate their loss of revenue by buying lower-quality bonds or non-liquid “alternative” investments promising higher yields. But those are dangerous games and activities that most institutions are ill-equipped to play. Berkshire’s situation is more favorable than that of insurers in general. Most important, our unrivaled mountain of capital, abundance of cash and a huge and diverse stream of non-insurance earnings allow us far more investment flexibility than is generally available to other companies in the industry. The many choices open to us are always advantageous – and sometimes have presented us with major opportunities. Our P/C companies have meanwhile had an excellent underwriting record. Berkshire has now operated at an underwriting profit for 16 of the last 17 years, the exception being 2017, when our pre-tax loss was a whopping $3.2 billion. For the entire 17-year span, our pre-tax gain totaled $27.5 billion, of which $400 million was recorded in 2019. That record is no accident: Disciplined risk evaluation is the daily focus of our insurance managers, who know that the rewards of float can be drowned by poor underwriting results. All insurers give that message lip service. At Berkshire it is a religion, Old Testament style. As I have repeatedly done in the past, I will emphasize now that happy outcomes in insurance are far from a sure thing: We will most certainly not have an underwriting profit in 16 of the next 17 years. Danger always lurks. Mistakes in assessing insurance risks can be huge and can take many years – even decades – to surface and ripen. (Think asbestos.) A major catastrophe that will dwarf hurricanes Katrina and Michael will occur – perhaps tomorrow, perhaps many decades from now. “The Big One” may come from a traditional source, such as wind or earthquake, or it may be a total surprise involving, say, a cyber attack having disastrous consequences beyond anything insurers now contemplate. When such a mega-catastrophe strikes, Berkshire will get its share of the losses and they will be big – very big. Unlike many other insurers, however, handling the loss will not come close to straining our resources, and we will be eager to add to our business the next day.

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闭上眼睛,试着想象一个能孕育出一家充满活力的财产/意外险公司的地方。纽约?伦敦?硅谷?威尔克斯-巴里如何?

Close your eyes for a moment and try to envision a locale that might spawn a dynamic P/C insurer. New York? London? Silicon Valley? How about Wilkes-Barre?

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8

2012 年底,我们保险业务中无可取代的经理人阿吉特·贾恩打电话告诉我,他正以 2.21 亿美元(大致相当于其当时的净资产)收购位于宾夕法尼亚州那座小城的一家小公司——GUARD 保险集团。他补充说,GUARD 的首席执行官西伊·福格尔(Sy Foguel)将会在伯克希尔成为一颗明星。GUARD 和西伊,当时对我来说都是陌生的名字。结果两猜全中:2019 年,GUARD 的保费规模达到 19 亿美元,较 2012 年增长 379%,同时还交出了令人满意的承保利润。自从加入伯克希尔,西伊带领公司进入了新的产品线和新的地域市场,并将 GUARD 的浮存金提升了 265%。

1967 年,奥马哈看似并非一个财产/意外险巨头的诞生地。威尔克斯-巴里很可能带来类似的意外之喜。

Late in 2012, Ajit Jain, the invaluable manager of our insurance operations, called to tell me that he was buying a tiny company – GUARD Insurance Group – in that small Pennsylvania city for $221 million (roughly its net worth at the time). He added that Sy Foguel, GUARD’s CEO, was going to be a star at Berkshire. Both GUARD and Sy were new names to me. Bingo and bingo: In 2019, GUARD had premium volume of $1.9 billion, up 379% since 2012, and also delivered a satisfactory underwriting profit. Since joining Berkshire, Sy has led the company into both new products and new regions of the country and has increased GUARD’s float by 265%. In 1967, Omaha seemed an unlikely launching pad for a P/C giant. Wilkes-Barre may well deliver a similar surprise.

伯克希尔哈撒韦能源(BHE)

Berkshire Hathaway Energy

伯克希尔哈撒韦能源(BHE)在我们旗下如今正迎来第 20 个年头。这个周年庆意味着我们应该追述一下这家公司的成就。

我们从电价说起。2000 年伯克希尔进入公用事业领域、购入 BHE 76% 的股权时,该公司在艾奥瓦州的居民用户平均支付 8.8 美分/千瓦时(kWh)。此后,居民电价年均涨幅不足 1%,并且我们已承诺,到 2028 年之前不会提高基础电价。相比之下,以下是该州另一家大型投资者拥有的公用事业公司的情况:去年,其向居民用户收取的电价比 BHE 高出 61%。最近,该公司又获准上调电价,这将使电价差距扩大到 70%。

我们与他们之间这一巨大的电价差异,很大程度上来自我们将风能转化为电能的巨大成就。我们预计,2021 年 BHE 将通过其拥有和运营的风力发电机组,在艾奥瓦州发电约 2520 万兆瓦时(MWh)。这一发电量将完全覆盖该州居民用户每年约 2460 万兆瓦时的需求。换句话说,我们的公用事业公司将在艾奥瓦州实现风电的自给自足。

再看另一项对比,艾奥瓦州那家公用事业公司的电力来自风电的比例不足 10%。此外,据我们所知,截至 2021 年,无论位于何处,尚没有另一家投资者拥有的公用事业公司能实现风电自给自足的地位。2000 年时,BHE 服务的是一个以农业为基础的经济体;如今,其前五大客户中有三家是高科技巨头。我相信,它们决定在艾奥瓦州设厂的部分原因,正是基于 BHE 提供可再生、低成本能源的能力。

当然,风是间歇性的,我们在艾奥瓦州的风机叶片只有部分时间在转动。在某些无风的时段,我们依靠非风电发电能力来确保所需电力。相反,在风力充沛的时段,我们将多余的风电出售给其他公用事业公司,通过所谓的“电网”为它们供电。我们出售给它们的电力,取代了它们对碳基资源——比如煤炭或天然气——的需求。

伯克希尔·哈撒韦如今与小沃尔特·斯科特和格雷格·阿贝尔共同持有 BHE 91% 的股权。自我们收购以来,BHE 从未向伯克希尔·哈撒韦支付过股息,并且随着岁月流逝,它已留存了 280 亿美元的盈利。这种模式在公用事业界是个异类,公用事业公司通常支付大笔股息——有时甚至达到或超过盈利的 80%。我们的观点是:我们能投入的越多,就越喜欢。

如今,BHE 拥有运营人才和经验去管理真正大型的公用事业项目——这些项目需要 1000 亿美元甚至更多的投资——并能够支持惠及我们的国家、我们的社区和我们股东的基础设施。我们随时准备好、愿意并且有能力抓住这类机遇。

Berkshire Hathaway Energy is now celebrating its 20th year under our ownership. That anniversary suggests that we should be catching up with the company’s accomplishments. We’ll start with the topic of electricity rates. When Berkshire entered the utility business in 2000, purchasing 76% of BHE, the company’s residential customers in Iowa paid an average of 8.8 cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh). Prices for residential customers have since risen less than 1% a year, and we have promised that there will be no base rate price increases through 2028. In contrast, here’s what is happening at the other large investor-owned Iowa utility: Last year, the rates it charged its residential customers were 61% higher than BHE’s. Recently, that utility received a rate increase that will widen the gap to 70%. The extraordinary differential between our rates and theirs is largely the result of our huge accomplishments in converting wind into electricity. In 2021, we expect BHE’s operation to generate about 25.2 million megawatt-hours of electricity (MWh) in Iowa from wind turbines that it both owns and operates. That output will totally cover the annual needs of its Iowa customers, which run to about 24.6 million MWh. In other words, our utility will have attained wind self-sufficiency in the state of Iowa. In still another contrast, that other Iowa utility generates less than 10% of its power from wind. Furthermore, we know of no other investor-owned utility, wherever located, that by 2021 will have achieved a position of wind self-sufficiency. In 2000, BHE was serving an agricultural-based economy; today, three of its five largest customers are high-tech giants. I believe their decisions to site plants in Iowa were in part based upon BHE’s ability to deliver renewable, low-cost energy. Of course, wind is intermittent, and our blades in Iowa turn only part of the time. In certain periods, when the air is still, we look to our non-wind generating capacity to secure the electricity we need. At opposite times, we sell the excess power that wind provides us to other utilities, serving them through what’s called “the grid.” The power we sell them supplants their need for a carbon resource – coal, say, or natural gas. Berkshire Hathaway now owns 91% of BHE in partnership with Walter Scott, Jr. and Greg Abel. BHE has never paid Berkshire Hathaway a dividend since our purchase and has, as the years have passed, retained $28 billion of earnings. That pattern is an outlier in the world of utilities, whose companies customarily pay big dividends – sometimes reaching, or even exceeding, 80% of earnings. Our view: The more we can invest, the more we like it. Today, BHE has the operating talent and experience to manage truly huge utility projects – requiring investments of $100 billion or more – that could support infrastructure benefitting our country, our communities and our shareholders. We stand ready, willing and able to take on such opportunities.

9
9

投资

以下我们列出年末市值最大的十五只普通股投资。我们排除了持有的卡夫亨氏股份——325,442,152 股——因为伯克希尔是一个控制集团的一员,因此必须采用“权益法”核算该笔投资。在资产负债表上,伯克希尔按 GAAP 以 138 亿美元列示卡夫亨氏持股,该金额代表 2019 年 12 月 31 日伯克希尔在卡夫亨氏经审计净资产中所占的份额。不过请留意,那一天我们这些股票的市场价值仅为 105 亿美元。

Investments Below we list our fifteen common stock investments that at yearend had the largest market value. We exclude our Kraft Heinz holding – 325,442,152 shares – because Berkshire is part of a control group and therefore must account for this investment on the “equity” method. On its balance sheet, Berkshire carries the Kraft Heinz holding at a GAAP figure of $13.8 billion, an amount that represents Berkshire’s share of the audited net worth of Kraft Heinz at December 31, 2019. Please note, though, that the market value of our shares on that date was only $10.5 billion.

12/31/19
12/31/19

持股占公司

已发行股份比例

Percentage of Company Owned

股数*

Shares*

公司

Company

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

151,610,700 250,866,566 947,760,000 81,488,751 5,426,609 400,000,000 70,910,456 12,435,814 60,059,932 24,669,778 46,692,713 21,938,642 149,497,786 10,239,160 345,688,918
151,610,700 250,866,566 947,760,000 81,488,751 5,426,609 400,000,000 70,910,456 12,435,814 60,059,932 24,669,778 46,692,713 21,938,642 149,497,786 10,239,160 345,688,918

原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

美国运通公司(American Express Company) 苹果公司(Apple Inc.) 美国银行(Bank of America Corp.) 纽约梅隆银行(The Bank of New York Mellon Corp.) 特许通讯公司(Charter Communications, Inc.) 可口可乐公司(The Coca-Cola Company) 达美航空(Delta Air Lines, Inc.) 高盛集团(The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.) 摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase & Co.) 穆迪公司(Moody’s Corporation) 西南航空(Southwest Airlines Co.) 联合大陆控股(United Continental Holdings Inc.) 合众银行(U.S. Bancorp) Visa 公司(Visa Inc.) 富国银行(Wells Fargo & Company) 其他*** 按市值列示的股权投资总计

American Express Company . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Apple Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Bank of America Corp. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Bank of New York Mellon Corp. . . . . . . . . . . . Charter Communications, Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Coca-Cola Company . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Delta Air Lines, Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . JPMorgan Chase & Co. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Moody’s Corporation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Southwest Airlines Co. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . United Continental Holdings Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . U.S. Bancorp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Visa Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Wells Fargo & Company . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Others*** . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Total Equity Investments Carried at Market . . . . . .

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原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。

18.7 5.7 10.7 9.0 2.6 9.3 11.0 3.5 1.9 13.1 9.0 8.7 9.7 0.6 8.4
18.7 5.7 10.7 9.0 2.6 9.3 11.0 3.5 1.9 13.1 9.0 8.7 9.7 0.6 8.4

成本**(百万美元)

Cost** $

市值(百万美元)

Market

(百万)
151,610,700美国运通公司18.7$ 1,287$ 18,874
250,866,566苹果公司5.735,28773,667
947,760,000美国银行集团10.712,56033,380
81,488,751纽约梅隆银行公司9.03,6964,101
5,426,609特许通讯公司2.69442,632
400,000,000可口可乐公司9.31,29922,140
70,910,456达美航空11.03,1254,147
12,435,814高盛集团3.58902,859
60,059,932摩根大通公司1.96,5568,372
24,669,778穆迪公司13.12485,857
46,692,713西南航空公司9.01,9402,520
21,938,642United Continental Holdings Inc8.71,1951,933
149,497,786美国合众银行9.75,7098,864
10,239,160Visa Inc0.63491,924
345,688,918富国银行公司8.47,04018,598
其他***28,21538,159
按市价计量的股权投资总计$110,340$248,027
(in millions)
151,610,700American Express Company18.7$ 1,287$ 18,874
250,866,566Apple Inc5.735,28773,667
947,760,000Bank of America Corp10.712,56033,380
81,488,751The Bank of New York Mellon Corp9.03,6964,101
5,426,609Charter Communications, Inc2.69442,632
400,000,000The Coca-Cola Company9.31,29922,140
70,910,456Delta Air Lines, Inc11.03,1254,147
12,435,814The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc3.58902,859
60,059,932JPMorgan Chase & Co1.96,5568,372
24,669,778Moody’s Corporation13.12485,857
46,692,713Southwest Airlines Co9.01,9402,520
21,938,642United Continental Holdings Inc8.71,1951,933
149,497,786U.S. Bancorp9.75,7098,864
10,239,160Visa Inc0.63491,924
345,688,918Wells Fargo & Company8.47,04018,598
Others***28,21538,159
Total Equity Investments Carried at Market$110,340$248,027
$110,340
$248,027
$110,340
$248,027
  • 不含伯克希尔子公司养老基金持有的股份。

** 这是我们的实际买入价格,也是我们的计税基础。

*** 包括对西方石油公司(Occidental Petroleum Corporation)的 100 亿美元投资,该投资由优先股和购买普通股的认股权证组成。

Excludes shares held by pension funds of Berkshire subsidiaries. This is our actual purchase price and also our tax basis. Includes $10 billion investment in Occidental Petroleum Corporation consisting of preferred stock and warrants to buy common stock.

查理和我从不把上文详列的 2480 亿美元视为一堆股市赌注——因为“华尔街”评级下调、业绩“不及预期”、预期的美联储动作、可能的政治动向、经济学家的预测,或是其他任何一时热议的话题而终止的短线玩票。相反,我们所看到的,是我们部分拥有的一系列公司,按加权基础计算,这些公司为其经营所需的净有形股权资本赚取了超过 20% 的回报。这些公司赚取利润的同时,也并不依赖过度的债务水平。

这样一批规模庞大、根基扎实且易于理解的企业所实现的回报,在任何环境下都不同寻常。与过去十年许多投资者在债券上接受的回报率相比——例如,30 年期美国国债 2.5% 甚至更低的收益率——这些回报确实令人瞠目结舌。

Charlie and I do not view the $248 billion detailed above as a collection of stock market wagers – dalliances to be terminated because of downgrades by “the Street,” an earnings “miss,” expected Federal Reserve actions, possible political developments, forecasts by economists or whatever else might be the subject du jour. What we see in our holdings, rather, is an assembly of companies that we partly own and that, on a weighted basis, are earning more than 20% on the net tangible equity capital required to run their businesses. These companies, also, earn their profits without employing excessive levels of debt. Returns of that order by large, established and understandable businesses are remarkable under any circumstances. They are truly mind-blowing when compared to the returns that many investors have accepted on bonds over the last decade – 2 1⁄ 2% or even less on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds, for example.

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预测利率从来不是我们的游戏。查理和我对于未来一年、十年或三十年的平均利率会是多少,一概不知。我们或许有些偏激的看法是:那些在这些话题上高谈阔论的权威人士,其行为本身所揭示的,远不是未来的走向,而是他们自己。我们能够断言的是:如果未来几十年利率维持在接近当前水平,同时企业所得税税率也继续停留在企业当前享有的低位,那么几乎可以确定,长期而言股票的表现将远远优于长期固定利率的债务工具。这一乐观预测附带一项警告:明天股市发生任何事都有可能。市场偶尔会出现大幅下跌,跌幅或许达到 50% 甚至更大。但将我去年的“美国顺风”一文所述的推动力与史密斯先生描绘的复利奇迹结合起来看,对于不借债且能控制自身情绪的个人来说,股票仍将是好得多的长期选择。其他人?当心!

Forecasting interest rates has never been our game, and Charlie and I have no idea what rates will average over the next year, or ten or thirty years. Our perhaps jaundiced view is that the pundits who opine on these subjects reveal, by that very behavior, far more about themselves than they reveal about the future. What we can say is that if something close to current rates should prevail over the coming decades and if corporate tax rates also remain near the low level businesses now enjoy, it is almost certain that equities will over time perform far better than long-term, fixed-rate debt instruments. That rosy prediction comes with a warning: Anything can happen to stock prices tomorrow. Occasionally, there will be major drops in the market, perhaps of 50% magnitude or even greater. But the combination of The American Tailwind, about which I wrote last year, and the compounding wonders described by Mr. Smith, will make equities the much better long-term choice for the individual who does not use borrowed money and who can control his or her emotions. Others? Beware!

前方的路

The Road Ahead

三十年前,我那位中西部朋友乔·罗森菲尔德,当时已年过八旬,收到当地报社一封恼人的信。报社措辞直白,索要他的生平资料,说是要备着写讣告用。乔没搭理。结果呢?一个月后,报社又来了第二封信,这回标着“紧急”。查理和我,早就踏进了“紧急”区。这对我俩算不上什么好消息,但伯克希尔的股东大可放心:你们的公司已 100% 为我们的离去做好了准备。我俩的乐观建立在五点之上。第一,伯克希尔的资产分散在种类繁多的全资或部分持股企业里,平均而言,它们在所用资本上都能赚取诱人的回报。第二,伯克希尔把“控股”企业收拢在单一实体之下,这让它享有一些重要而持久的经济优势。第三,伯克希尔的财务始终会以能扛住极端外部冲击的方式来打理。第四,我们拥有一批技艺高超、忠心不二的高层管理者,对他们来说,经营伯克希尔远不止是一份高薪或体面的差事。最后,伯克希尔的董事——各位的守护人——始终把股东福祉放在心上,也悉心呵护着一种大公司里少见的文化。(这种文化的价值,拉里·坎宁安与斯蒂芬妮·古巴合著的新书《信任的边际》有专门探讨,此书将在我们的股东大会上发售。)查理和我有非常现实的理由,希望确保伯克希尔在我们退场之后依旧兴旺:芒格一家持有的伯克希尔股份,远远盖过这个家族其他任何投资;而我个人净资产整整 99% 都押在伯克希尔股票上。这些股票我一股没卖过,也没打算卖。除了慈善捐赠和少量私人赠予,我唯一一次处置伯克希尔股份是在 1980 年——当时我和其他选择参与的伯克希尔股东一起,用我们手中的部分伯克希尔股份,换取了一家伊利诺伊州银行的股票;那家银行是伯克希尔 1969 年买下的,1980 年因银行控股公司法有变,不得不脱手。如今,我的遗嘱明确指示遗嘱执行人——以及遗嘱了结后接手打理我遗产的受托人——不得出售任何伯克希尔股份。遗嘱还免除了执行人和受托人的责任:他们不必为维持这份显然极度集中的资产而担责。遗嘱进而叮嘱执行人(此后是受托人)每年把我一部分 A 类股转换成 B 类股,再把 B 类股分给各家基金会,这些基金会须尽快把拨款用出去。我估摸,我身后所持的全部伯克希尔股份,要花上 12 到 15 年才能悉数进入市场。倘若没有遗嘱这条“所有伯克希尔股份须持有到既定分配日期”的指令,对我的执行人和受托人而言,“稳妥”的做法本是把暂时归他们掌管的伯克希尔股份卖掉,把所得再投到期限与各分配日期相匹配的美国国债上。这么做,能让受托人既躲开公众非议,也免于因未按“审慎人”标准行事而可能招来的个人责任。

Three decades ago, my Midwestern friend, Joe Rosenfield, then in his 80s, received an irritating letter from his local newspaper. In blunt words, the paper asked for biographical data it planned to use in Joe’s obituary. Joe didn’t respond. So? A month later, he got a second letter from the paper, this one labeled “URGENT.” Charlie and I long ago entered the urgent zone. That’s not exactly great news for us. But Berkshire shareholders need not worry: Your company is 100% prepared for our departure. The two of us base our optimism upon five factors. First, Berkshire’s assets are deployed in an extraordinary variety of wholly or partly-owned businesses that, averaged out, earn attractive returns on the capital they use. Second, Berkshire’s positioning of its “controlled” businesses within a single entity endows it with some important and enduring economic advantages. Third, Berkshire’s financial affairs will unfailingly be managed in a manner allowing the company to withstand external shocks of an extreme nature. Fourth, we possess skilled and devoted top managers for whom running Berkshire is far more than simply having a high-paying and/or prestigious job. Finally, Berkshire’s directors – your guardians – are constantly focused on both the welfare of owners and the nurturing of a culture that is rare among giant corporations. (The value of this culture is explored in Margin of Trust, a new book by Larry Cunningham and Stephanie Cuba that will be available at our annual meeting.) Charlie and I have very pragmatic reasons for wanting to assure Berkshire’s prosperity in the years following our exit: The Mungers have Berkshire holdings that dwarf any of the family’s other investments, and I have a full 99% of my net worth lodged in Berkshire stock. I have never sold any shares and have no plans to do so. My only disposal of Berkshire shares, aside from charitable donations and minor personal gifts, took place in 1980, when I, along with other Berkshire stockholders who elected to participate, exchanged some of our Berkshire shares for the shares of an Illinois bank that Berkshire had purchased in 1969 and that, in 1980, needed to be offloaded because of changes in the bank holding company law. Today, my will specifically directs its executors – as well as the trustees who will succeed them in administering my estate after the will is closed – not to sell any Berkshire shares. My will also absolves both the executors and the trustees from liability for maintaining what obviously will be an extreme concentration of assets. The will goes on to instruct the executors – and, in time, the trustees – to each year convert a portion of my A shares into B shares and then distribute the Bs to various foundations. Those foundations will be required to deploy their grants promptly. In all, I estimate that it will take 12 to 15 years for the entirety of the Berkshire shares I hold at my death to move into the market. Absent my will’s directive that all my Berkshire shares should be held until their scheduled distribution dates, the “safe” course for both my executors and trustees would be to sell the Berkshire shares under their temporary control and reinvest the proceeds in U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities matching the scheduled dates for distributions. That strategy would leave the fiduciaries immune from both public criticism and the possibility of personal liability for failure to act in accordance with the “prudent man” standard.

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我个人感到很安心,相信在这段处置期内,伯克希尔股票会提供一项安全且回报可观的投资。当然,总存在一种可能性——虽然不大,但不可忽视——即事实最终证明我错了。然而我相信,我的这项指令极有可能会比常规做法为社会带来更大的资源。这一“只留伯克希尔”指示的关键,在于我对伯克希尔董事们未来判断力和忠诚度的信念。他们将时常受到华尔街收费人士的考验。在许多公司,这些超级推销员可能会赢。但我认为这种情况不会在伯克希尔发生。

I myself feel comfortable that Berkshire shares will provide a safe and rewarding investment during the disposal period. There is always a chance – unlikely, but not negligible – that events will prove me wrong. I believe, however, that there is a high probability that my directive will deliver substantially greater resources to society than would result from a conventional course of action. Key to my “Berkshire-only” instructions is my faith in the future judgment and fidelity of Berkshire directors. They will regularly be tested by Wall Streeters bearing fees. At many companies, these super-salesmen might win. I do not, however, expect that to happen at Berkshire.

董事会

Boards of Directors

近年来,公司董事会的构成与宗旨成了热门话题。曾几何时,有关董事会职责的讨论大抵仅限于律师之间;而今天,机构投资者和政界人士也加入了进来。我讨论公司治理的资历包括:在过去 62 年中,我曾在 21 家上市公司(列表附后)担任董事。其中除两家外,我均代表着一笔可观的持股。在少数几个案例中,我曾尝试推动重大变革。在我担任董事的头三十年左右,会议室里很少见到女性,除非她是掌控该企业的家族代表。值得注意的是,今年恰逢美国宪法第十九修正案通过 100 周年,该修正案保障了美国女性在投票站发出声音的权利。而她们在董事会会议室里取得类似地位,仍是一项未竟的工作。多年来,围绕董事会构成与职责已经出台了许多新的规则和指引。然而,董事们面临的最根本挑战始终不变:找到并留住一位德才兼备——必须诚实正直——并且愿意将其职业生涯奉献给公司的 CEO。这件事往往很难。可一旦董事们做对了这件事,他们就几乎不需要再做其他什么了。但如果他们搞砸了……如今的审计委员会比过去更加勤勉,且几乎总是以恰当严肃的态度来对待工作。然而,面对那些企图在数字上做手脚的管理者,这些委员会仍然不是对手。这种造假行为又因“盈利指引”这一祸害与 CEO 们“达到数字”的欲望而变本加厉。我与玩弄公司数字的 CEO 们打交道的直接经验(幸好有限)表明,这些行为更多是出于自负,而非贪财。薪酬委员会如今对顾问的依赖程度比过去严重得多。结果,薪酬方案变得愈发复杂——有哪个委员会成员愿意为一份简单的方案年年解释为何要支付高额费用呢?——而阅读代理材料也因此变得令人麻木。公司治理中有一项非常重要的改进已成为强制规定:定期举行 CEO 被排除门外的董事“执行会议”。在此项变革之前,能够就 CEO 的技能、收购决策和薪酬进行真正坦率讨论的情况实属罕见。收购提案对董事会成员来说仍然是一个尤其棘手的问题。为达成交易而进行的法律设计已发展得极其精妙且铺张(“铺张”这个词用来形容随之产生的成本也很贴切)。但我至今还没见过哪位渴望收购的 CEO,会邀请一位见多识广、能言善辩的批评者来为自己的方案唱反调。没错,我也属于这些有过之人中的一员。

In recent years, both the composition of corporate boards and their purpose have become hot topics. Once, debate about the responsibilities of boards was largely limited to lawyers; today, institutional investors and politicians have weighed in as well. My credentials for discussing corporate governance include the fact that, over the last 62 years, I have served as a director of 21 publicly-owned companies (listed below). In all but two of them, I have represented a substantial holding of stock. In a few cases, I have tried to implement important change. During the first 30 or so years of my services, it was rare to find a woman in the room unless she represented a family controlling the enterprise. This year, it should be noted, marks the 100th anniversary of the 19th Amendment, which guaranteed American women the right to have their voices heard in a voting booth. Their attaining similar status in a board room remains a work in progress. Over the years, many new rules and guidelines pertaining to board composition and duties have come into being. The bedrock challenge for directors, nevertheless, remains constant: Find and retain a talented CEO – possessing integrity, for sure – who will be devoted to the company for his/her business lifetime. Often, that task is hard. When directors get it right, though, they need to do little else. But when they mess it up, . . . . . . Audit committees now work much harder than they once did and almost always view the job with appropriate seriousness. Nevertheless, these committees remain no match for managers who wish to game numbers, an offense that has been encouraged by the scourge of earnings “guidance” and the desire of CEOs to “hit the number.” My direct experience (limited, thankfully) with CEOs who have played with a company’s numbers indicates that they were more often prompted by ego than by a desire for financial gain. Compensation committees now rely much more heavily on consultants than they used to. Consequently, compensation arrangements have become more complicated – what committee member wants to explain paying large fees year after year for a simple plan? – and the reading of proxy material has become a mind-numbing experience. One very important improvement in corporate governance has been mandated: a regularly-scheduled “executive session” of directors at which the CEO is barred. Prior to that change, truly frank discussions of a CEO’s skills, acquisition decisions and compensation were rare. Acquisition proposals remain a particularly vexing problem for board members. The legal orchestration for making deals has been refined and expanded (a word aptly describing attendant costs as well). But I have yet to see a CEO who craves an acquisition bring in an informed and articulate critic to argue against it. And yes, include me among the guilty.

伯克希尔、蓝筹印花、大都会/美国广播公司、可口可乐、数据文档、登普斯特、通用成长、吉列、卡夫亨氏、马拉开波石油、曼辛威、奥马哈国民银行、平克顿、波特兰煤气照明、所罗门、桑伯恩地图、论坛石油、美国航空、沃纳多、华盛顿邮报、西科金融 12

Berkshire, Blue Chip Stamps, Cap Cities-ABC, Coca-Cola, Data Documents, Dempster, General Growth, Gillette, Kraft Heinz, Maracaibo Oil, Munsingwear, Omaha National Bank, Pinkerton’s, Portland Gas Light, Salomon, Sanborn Map, Tribune Oil, U.S. Air, Vornado, Washington Post, Wesco Financial 12

总的来看,牌局对 CEO 及其听话的下属所觊觎的那笔交易有利。要是哪家公司聘两位“专家”收购顾问,一方赞成、一方反对,各自就一项拟议交易向董事会陈述己见——胜出者获得的报酬,比方说是败方那笔象征性酬劳的十倍——这倒会是一项有意思的实验。不过,别屏着气等这项改革:现行体制不管对股东有多少缺点,对 CEO 以及靠交易大快朵颐的众多顾问和其他专业人士来说,却运转得极其出色。在掂量来自华尔街的建议时,那句古老的忠告永远成立:别问理发师你该不该理发。这些年来,董事会“独立性”已成为一个新的关注重点。但与此相关的一个关键点,却几乎总是被忽略:董事薪酬如今已飙升至这样一个水平,对许多并不富裕的董事来说,报酬不可避免地成了影响其行为的潜意识因素。稍想一下:一位董事一年参加六次左右的董事会会议,每次愉快地耗上一两天,就能挣到 25 万到 30 万美元。常常,仅凭这一个董事席位,其收入就是美国家庭年收入中位数的三到四倍。(这趟顺风车我大半没赶上:20 世纪 60 年代初,我担任波特兰煤气照明公司(Portland Gas Light)董事时,服务一年的酬劳是 100 美元。为了挣这笔“巨款”,我每年要通勤去缅因州四趟。)那如今饭碗稳不稳?妙不可言。董事们或许会被客客气气地无视,却极少被解职。取而代之的是,宽松的年龄限制——通常是 70 岁或更高——成了体面请走董事的标准做法。这样看来,一位不富裕的董事(下称“NWD”)如今希望——甚至渴求——被邀加入第二个董事会,从而一举跃入 50 万到 60 万美元收入级别,有什么好奇怪的呢?要达成这一目标,NWD 需要有人帮忙。一家正在物色董事的公司,其 CEO 几乎一定会向 NWD 当前的 CEO 打听,NWD 是不是个“好”董事。“好”自然是句暗语。倘若 NWD 曾认真质疑过现任 CEO 的薪酬或收购美梦,他或她的候选资格便会悄无声息地终结。物色董事时,CEO 找的不是斗牛犬。被领回家的,是那条可卡犬。尽管这一切毫无逻辑可言,但那些在乎——甚至渴求——董事费的人,几乎无一不被归为“独立”董事;与此同时,许多身家与公司福祉高度绑定的董事,却被认为缺乏独立性。不久前,我翻阅一家美国大公司的代理材料,发现八位董事从未用自己的钱买过公司哪怕一股股票。(他们当然获得过股票授予,作为丰厚现金薪酬之外的添头。)这家公司长期落后于同业,但董事们却过得好极了。当然,用自己的钱持股,并不创造智慧,也不保证生意眼光。尽管如此,当我们投资组合中那些公司的董事们有过用自己的积蓄购买股票的经历,而不只是坐等授予时,我心里总要踏实一些。

Overall, the deck is stacked in favor of the deal that’s coveted by the CEO and his/her obliging staff. It would be an interesting exercise for a company to hire two “expert” acquisition advisors, one pro and one con, to deliver his or her views on a proposed deal to the board – with the winning advisor to receive, say, ten times a token sum paid to the loser. Don’t hold your breath awaiting this reform: The current system, whatever its shortcomings for shareholders, works magnificently for CEOs and the many advisors and other professionals who feast on deals. A venerable caution will forever be true when advice from Wall Street is contemplated: Don’t ask the barber whether you need a haircut. Over the years, board “independence” has become a new area of emphasis. One key point relating to this topic, though, is almost invariably overlooked: Director compensation has now soared to a level that inevitably makes pay a subconscious factor affecting the behavior of many non-wealthy members. Think, for a moment, of the director earning $250,000-300,000 for board meetings consuming a pleasant couple of days six or so times a year. Frequently, the possession of one such directorship bestows on its holder three to four times the annual median income of U.S. households. (I missed much of this gravy train: As a director of Portland Gas Light in the early 1960s, I received $100 annually for my service. To earn this princely sum, I commuted to Maine four times a year.) And job security now? It’s fabulous. Board members may get politely ignored, but they seldom get fired. Instead, generous age limits – usually 70 or higher – act as the standard method for the genteel ejection of directors. Is it any wonder that a non-wealthy director (“NWD”) now hopes – or even yearns – to be asked to join a second board, thereby vaulting into the $500,000-600,000 class? To achieve this goal, the NWD will need help. The CEO of a company searching for board members will almost certainly check with the NWD’s current CEO as to whether NWD is a “good” director. “Good,” of course, is a code word. If the NWD has seriously challenged his/her present CEO’s compensation or acquisition dreams, his or her candidacy will silently die. When seeking directors, CEOs don’t look for pit bulls. It’s the cocker spaniel that gets taken home. Despite the illogic of it all, the director for whom fees are important – indeed, craved – is almost universally classified as “independent” while many directors possessing fortunes very substantially linked to the welfare of the corporation are deemed lacking in independence. Not long ago, I looked at the proxy material of a large American company and found that eight directors had never purchased a share of the company’s stock using their own money. (They, of course, had received grants of stock as a supplement to their generous cash compensation.) This particular company had long been a laggard, but the directors were doing wonderfully. Paid-with-my-own-money ownership, of course, does not create wisdom or ensure business smarts. Nevertheless, I feel better when directors of our portfolio companies have had the experience of purchasing shares with their savings, rather than simply having been the recipients of grants.

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这里该稍停一下:我想让诸位知道,这些年来我遇到的董事,几乎个个正派、可亲又聪明。他们衣着得体,是邻里和睦、市民称职的好人。我乐于与他们相处。他们当中还有一些人,若非因为共同在董事会的服务,我根本不会结识,如今已成我的挚友。话虽如此,这些好人中有不少是我绝不会选来打理钱财或处理生意事务的人。那根本不是他们擅长的领域。反过来,他们也绝不会来请我帮忙拔牙、装饰他们的家或改进高尔夫的挥杆。更何况,要是哪天排定我上《与星共舞》(Dancing With the Stars),我立马就会去寻求证人保护计划(Witness Protection Program)的庇护。我们每个人在某些事情上都是庸手。对多数人来说,那张单子还挺长。需要认清的一个重要点是:如果你是鲍比·菲舍尔(Bobby Fischer),你就必须只靠下棋来挣钱。在伯克希尔,我们会继续寻找具有商业头脑、以股东为导向、并对本公司抱有强烈而具体兴趣的董事。指引他们行动的,将是思考和原则,而不是机器人般的“流程”。在代表你们利益的过程中,他们自然也会去寻找这样的管理者:以取悦客户、珍视同事为目标,并且在自己的社区和国家做良好公民。

Here, a pause is due: I’d like you to know that almost all of the directors I have met over the years have been decent, likable and intelligent. They dressed well, made good neighbors and were fine citizens. I’ve enjoyed their company. Among the group are some men and women that I would not have met except for our mutual board service and who have become close friends. Nevertheless, many of these good souls are people whom I would never have chosen to handle money or business matters. It simply was not their game. They, in turn, would never have asked me for help in removing a tooth, decorating their home or improving their golf swing. Moreover, if I were ever scheduled to appear on Dancing With the Stars, I would immediately seek refuge in the Witness Protection Program. We are all duds at one thing or another. For most of us, the list is long. The important point to recognize is that if you are Bobby Fischer, you must play only chess for money. At Berkshire, we will continue to look for business-savvy directors who are owner-oriented and arrive with a strong specific interest in our company. Thought and principles, not robot-like “process,” will guide their actions. In representing your interests, they will, of course, seek managers whose goals include delighting their customers, cherishing their associates and acting as good citizens of both their communities and our country.

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这些目标并非新鲜事物。六十年前,它们是称职的 CEO 们追求的目标,如今依然如此。难道还能是别的样子吗?

Those objectives are not new. They were the goals of able CEOs sixty years ago and remain so. Who would have it otherwise?

短题

Short Subjects

在过去的报告中,我们既谈过股票回购的合理之处,也谈过它的荒谬之处。我们的想法归结起来是:伯克希尔只会在以下两个条件均满足时回购自家股票:a)查理和我都认为它的售价低于其价值;b)公司在完成回购后仍拥有充裕现金。内在价值的计算远非精确,因此,我俩都没有任何紧迫感,非要用非常实在的 95 美分去买一份估算为 1 美元的价值。2019 年,伯克希尔的价格与价值等式偶尔出现适度有利的情形,我们花了 50 亿美元回购了约 1% 的公司股份。长期来看,我们希望伯克希尔的股份总数下降。如果价格相对于价值的折价(按我们的估计)进一步扩大,我们很可能会更积极地买入。但我们不会在任何价位去支撑股价。持有价值至少 2000 万美元 A 或 B 股、且有意向伯克希尔出售股份的股东,可请你们的经纪人联系伯克希尔的马克·米勒德(Mark Millard),电话 402-346-1400。我们请在中央时区上午 8:00 至 8:30 或下午 3:00 至 3:30 之间致电马克,并且只在你们确实准备出售时才打来。

In past reports, we’ve discussed both the sense and nonsense of stock repurchases. Our thinking, boiled down: Berkshire will buy back its stock only if a) Charlie and I believe that it is selling for less than it is worth and b) the company, upon completing the repurchase, is left with ample cash. Calculations of intrinsic value are far from precise. Consequently, neither of us feels any urgency to buy an estimated $1 of value for a very real 95 cents. In 2019, the Berkshire price/value equation was modestly favorable at times, and we spent $5 billion in repurchasing about 1% of the company. Over time, we want Berkshire’s share count to go down. If the price-to-value discount (as we estimate it) widens, we will likely become more aggressive in purchasing shares. We will not, however, prop the stock at any level. Shareholders having at least $20 million in value of A or B shares and an inclination to sell shares to Berkshire may wish to have their broker contact Berkshire’s Mark Millard at 402-346-1400. We request that you phone Mark between 8:00-8:30 a.m. or 3:00-3:30 p.m. Central Time, calling only if you are ready to sell.

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2019 年,伯克希尔向美国财政部缴纳了 36 亿美元的当期所得税。同期,美国政府征收的企业所得税总计 2430 亿美元。从这组数据中,各位可以自豪地看到:你们的公司贡献了全美企业所缴联邦所得税的 1.5%。五十五年前,当伯克希尔进入当前这种形态时,公司未缴纳任何联邦所得税。(这也有其充分理由:此前十年,这家挣扎中的企业录得的是净亏损。)自那以后,随着伯克希尔几乎留存了所有盈利,这一政策的受益者不仅是公司的股东,也包括联邦政府。在未来的大多数年份里,我们既希望也预计,会向财政部送去远比现在大得多的金额。

In 2019, Berkshire sent $3.6 billion to the U.S. Treasury to pay its current income tax. The U.S. government collected $243 billion from corporate income tax payments during the same period. From these statistics, you can take pride that your company delivered 1 1⁄ 2% of the federal income taxes paid by all of corporate America. Fifty-five years ago, when Berkshire entered its current incarnation, the company paid nothing in federal income tax. (For good reason, too: Over the previous decade, the struggling business had recorded a net loss.) Since then, as Berkshire retained nearly all of its earnings, the beneficiaries of that policy became not only the company’s shareholders but also the federal government. In most future years, we both hope and expect to send far larger sums to the Treasury.

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第 A-2 至 A-3 页载有我们年度股东大会的详细信息,会议将于 2020 年 5 月 2 日召开。雅虎(Yahoo)将一如既往地向全球直播这场盛会。不过,我们今年的活动形式有一处重要变化:我曾收到股东、媒体和董事会成员的建议,希望让我们的两位核心运营经理阿吉特·贾恩(Ajit Jain)和格雷格·阿贝尔(Greg Abel)在大会上得到更多亮相的机会。这一变动极具道理。他们作为管理者和作为人,都极为出色,各位理应多听听他们的声音。今年,向我们的三位资深记者提交问题的股东,可以指定该问题交由阿吉特或格雷格回答。他们和查理、我一样,将不会对问题内容事先得到任何提示。记者们将与现场观众的提问交替进行,观众同样可以向我们四人中的任何一位发问。所以,把你们那些刁钻的问题磨亮些带来吧。

On pages A-2 – A-3, you will find details about our annual meeting, which will be held on May 2, 2020. Yahoo, as usual, will be streaming the event worldwide. There will be one important change, however, in our format: I’ve had suggestions from shareholders, media and board members that Ajit Jain and Greg Abel – our two key operating managers – be given more exposure at the meeting. That change makes great sense. They are outstanding individuals, both as managers and as human beings, and you should hear more from them. Shareholders who this year send a question to be asked by our three long-serving journalists may specify that it be posed to Ajit or Greg. They, like Charlie and me, will not have even a hint of what the questions will be. The journalists will alternate questions with those from the audience, who also can direct questions to any of the four of us. So polish up your zingers.

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5 月 2 日,到奥马哈来。见见你的资本家同道,买些伯克希尔的产品,痛痛快快地玩一场。查理和我——以及整个伯克希尔大家庭——都期待着与你相见。2020 年 2 月 22 日

On May 2nd, come to Omaha. Meet your fellow capitalists. Buy some Berkshire products. Have fun. Charlie and I – along with the entire Berkshire gang – are looking forward to seeing you. February 22, 2020

沃伦·E·巴菲特 董事会主席

Warren E. Buffett Chairman of the Board

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