《查理·芒格,不加修饰》——《华尔街日报》长篇访谈文字记录
查理·芒格,不设防
这位投资界传奇人物、伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司沃伦·巴菲特的长期副手开讲了
Charlie Munger, Unplugged The investing legend and longtime deputy to Berkshire Hathaway’s Warren Buffett holds court
查理·芒格在洛杉矶的家中,讨论了他的商业、投资和人生哲学。照片来源:迈克尔·刘易斯
为《华尔街日报》拍摄
Charlie Munger, at his home in Los Angeles, discussed his philosophies on business, investing and life. PHOTO: MICHAEL LEWIS FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
作者:贾森·茨威格、妮可·弗里德曼
2019 年 5 月 3 日 晚上 9:59 美国东部时间
By Jason Zweig and Nicole Friedman May 3, 2019 9:59 p.m. ET
伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司(BRK.B 1.24%)副董事长、95 岁的查理·芒格对华尔街发表了讲话。
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. BRK.B 1.24% Vice Chairman Charlie Munger, 95, spoke to Wall Street
4 月 23 日,《华尔街日报》记者妮可·弗里德曼(Nicole Friedman)和杰森·茨威格(Jason Zweig)在他位于洛杉矶的家中与他共进晚餐,进行了长达六小时的交谈。他谈到了众多话题。以下为此次对话以及后续电话讨论的编辑节录。
问:您如何看待您和沃伦·巴菲特吸引的全球粉丝群?
Journal reporters Nicole Friedman and Jason Zweig for six hours over dinner in his Los Angeles home on April 23. He covered a wide array of subjects. Here is an edited transcript from that conversation and a follow-up telephone discussion. Q: What do you make of the world-wide fan club that you and Warren Buffett have attracted?
嗯,这个世界很奇特。那些喜欢我的人,大多是来自中国或印度的书呆子。这是一种非常深的情感连接。他们改善自己的热情极为强烈。有些人只是想要找个捷径赚钱,但大多数人是在努力提升自己。
大量顶尖工程院校的毕业生都在做投资。我不会把一个用计算机科学从海量数据里筛相关性、然后根据这个相关性做交易——如果有效就继续、失效就停止——的人叫做投资者。他实际上是个交易员。而那些相关性是非常奇特的……当然,一旦有人找到某个相关性,越多的人试图用它来做交易,它就越不灵了。
A: Well, the world is very peculiar. And these people that like me are mostly nerds in China or India. It’s a very deep attachment. They’re so passionately interested in improving themselves. Some of them just want to get rich in some easy way, but mostly they’re trying to improve themselves. An awful lot of graduates of great engineering schools are investors. I wouldn’t call a man who uses computer science to sift vast amounts of data for correlation, and then starts trading the correlation and if it works, keeps going, and if it doesn’t, stops, I wouldn’t call him an investor. It’s really, what he is is a trader. And those correlations are very peculiar…. Of course, the more people that try and trade that one correlation, once they find it, the less well it works.
问:如果您刚刚起步做投资人,会采取什么方法?
Q: If you were just starting out as an investor, what approach would you take?
A:其实,[本杰明·]格雷厄姆最初那种寻找付出少于所得的方法是对的。一切好的投资都是获得比你付出的更好的投资。你只是在不同地方寻找它,就像渔夫可以在不同水域钓鱼一样。但他始终在寻找比付出更多的价值,这一点永远不会过时。我是说,这是基本且根本的道理。
有人关注那些盈利持续增长的股票,有人看消费品,有人看破产企业,有人看不良债务。狩猎方式各有不同,就像钓鱼地点各不相同一样。这就是投资。
当然,其中诀窍之一就是知道到哪里去钓鱼。李录(西雅图喜马拉雅资本管理公司)作为投资者,利用格雷厄姆的培训寻找更深层的价值,赚了绝对的大钱。但如果他是在中国和韩国之外的其他地方这么做,他的记录就不会那么漂亮了。他在有鱼的地方钓鱼。那些地方有很多实力雄厚的好公司,价格却非常便宜。
我给你举个例子。韩国有个家伙,垄断了酱料市场。我说垄断,是指他占据了韩国所有酱料约 95% 的份额。他无法容忍任何其他人卖酱料。所以,如果他愿意提价的话,本可以赚到两三倍的利润。李录算清了这一点。这家公司叫 Ottogi(Ottogi)。当然,我们赚了 20 倍。美国可没这种好事。
问:券商和银行家应该如何获得报酬?
A: Well, the original [Benjamin] Graham approach of looking for cases where you’re getting more than you’re paying for is correct. All good investing involves getting a better investment than you’re paying for. And you’re just looking for it in different places, just as a fisherman can fish in one place or another. But he’s always looking for more value than [he’s] paying for. That will never go out of style. I mean, that is just basic and fundamental. Some people look at it in stocks where the earnings are going up all the time, some look at consumer goods, some look at bankruptcies, some look at distressed debt. There are different ways to hunt, just like different places to fish. And that’s investing. And knowing that, of course, one of the tricks is knowing where to fish. Li Lu [of Himalaya Capital Management LLC in Seattle] has made an absolute fortune as an investor using Graham’s training to look for deeper values. But if he had done it any place other than China and Korea, his record wouldn’t be as good. He fished where the fish were. There were a lot of wonderful, strong companies at very cheap prices over there. Let me give you an example. One guy in Korea, he cornered the sauce market. And when I say cornered, he had like 95% of all the sauce in Korea. And he couldn’t stand anybody else ever selling any sauce. So he could have made two or three times as much if he wanted to by raising the prices. Li Lu figured that out. It’s called Ottogi. And of course we’ve made 20 for 1. There was nothing like that in the United States. Q: How should brokers and bankers be paid?
A: 恐怕销售人员的动力确实大得惊人。但另一方面,在佣金制下,你要是给一个养家糊口的男人这种权力,销售员能干出的事简直恶劣至极。而证券经纪公司之所以需要那么庞大的合规部门,原因就在于,缺了这些部门,那些靠佣金吃饭、维护体面、支付账单的销售员,一到月底,就能把任何破烂货色卖给瞎子来赚取手续费。
这真令人作呕。我已故妻子的一个亲戚,她母亲的表兄,是一位盲人医生。他收养了两个孩子。在他失明之后,靠着自己早年勤恳工作(从药剂师转行学医晚,但非常努力)攒下的积蓄过日子。结果,那个娶了他养女的混账经纪人,不断折腾这老头的账户,直到把他榨干。他可是个盲人!那人还是他自己的岳父!
A: I’m afraid that salesmen do have a wonderful incentive. On the other hand, what a salesman will do is just awful, if you give a man a family to support, in the commission system. And the reason that the brokerage houses need such big compliance departments is that, without them, the salesman who needs the commission to live, maintain status, to pay the bills and so forth, if it gets to the end of the month, he would sell a blind man any goddamn thing to get the gross. It’s disgusting. My dead wife had a relative, her mother’s cousin, who was a blind doctor. And he had two adopted children. And after he was blind, and he was living on the savings that he’d made from very hard working, he came late to medicine from pharmacy, and he worked hard and he’d saved some money, and that’s what he lived on—and this goddamn broker who was married to the adopted daughter, he just churned the old guy until he was broke. He was blind! He was his own father-in-law!
他们总觉得,只要够需要,干就干了。这种事哪儿都有。富国银行出事,不过是又一个例子。激励定得太狠,太多人就会扛不住。
(富国银行)出的错在于,事情曝光后,他们光知道开掉干坏事的人,开掉了上千号,却没改激励制度。这简直疯了,但说到底就是蠢官僚、自大的 CEO 干的蠢事。
问:你希望谁来当富国银行的新任 CEO?
They just think if you need it enough, it’s OK to do. And it happens everywhere. And what happened at Wells Fargo was just another instance of that. You get the incentives too tough and too many people will yield. The mistake [at Wells Fargo] was, when it blew up, they just started firing the people that did it and they fired thousands without changing the incentive system. It was insane but again a dumb bureaucracy, a pompous CEO. Q: Who would you want to see as the new Wells Fargo CEO?
A:唔,我倒是希望[刚离任的 CEO]蒂姆·斯隆能留下来。那家银行的运作方式决定了,他对旗下那些业务部门根本没有控制权。
那些决策绝不是他做的。而那些决策本身也不是恶意的,只是愚蠢。他们就是没意识到,激励措施的力度太大,以至于员工行为失当。你看,那些券商做的跟富国银行一模一样的事,只不过人家没有合规部门。所以[富国银行]认为自己是出了合规问题。他们从没想过,像自身激励体系这种东西本身可能就是错误。
Q:但富国银行之前和之后还闹出过其他丑闻。
A: Well, I would have liked to have [outgoing CEO] Tim Sloan stay. The way that place is run, he had no power at all over those divisions of the bank. And in no sense did he make any of the decisions. And none of those decisions were evil, they were just stupid. They just didn’t realize that the incentives were so strong that the people were misbehaving. And, see, the brokers do the same thing Wells Fargo did, they just have a compliance department. So [Wells Fargo] regarded themselves as having a compliance problem. It never occurred to them that something like their own incentive system could be a mistake. Q: But Wells Fargo had other scandals—before and since.
A: 当你们设立强硬的激励机制,用指标来驱动每个人,当然会出现丑闻。现在他们正在抛弃所有这些激励计划,这些计划从一开始就不该存在。
问:你和沃伦·巴菲特是否与富国银行走得太近,以至于没能看到问题?你觉得责任应该算在你头上吗?
A: When you have tough incentives that are driving everybody with quotas, of course you’ll have scandals. They’re now throwing out all those incentive plans, which they should have done in the first place. Q: Were you and Warren Buffett too close to Wells Fargo to see the problems? Do you feel blame should stick to you?
A:这个嘛,我可不是想推卸责任。但如果你碰上一个狂妄自大、愚蠢透顶的 CEO,从我们的位置去批评他,结果只会适得其反。这毫无益处,也不会带来任何改变,而且我们现在持有巨额浮盈,如果卖掉股票,就得交一大笔税。所以我们一般不会——科瓦切维奇是第一个。他嘴就没停过,而且自视甚高,谁的意见都听不进去。[编者注:富国银行前 CEO 理查德·科瓦切维奇拒绝置评。]
而接替他的人,几乎一样差劲,只是没那么咋咋呼呼、喋喋不休。[编者注:约翰·斯顿夫(科瓦切维奇在富国银行的继任 CEO)的律师代其拒绝置评。]没有一个人干过什么好事。所以,我们——我想不出有什么时候——如果我们觉得有机会,确实会试图劝阻别人别做傻事。
A: Well, I don’t want to be running away from blame. [But] it is completely counterproductive, if you’ve got a pompous, stupid CEO, to be criticizing him from our position. It’s not going to do any good, not going to change, and we have a huge gain now that we’d have had to pay a huge tax if we sold it. So we do not tend—Kovacevich was there first. He never stops talking. And he’s full of himself. He would not learn anything from anybody. [Editor’s note:Former Wells Fargo CEO Richard Kovacevich declined to comment.] And the new guy, the next guy, was almost as bad but not so loud and persistent. [Editor’s note:A lawyer for John Stumpf, Mr. Kovacevich’s successor as Wells Fargo’s CEO, declined to comment on his behalf.] And nobody had done any good. So we don’t, I can’t think of a time—we do try to talk people out of things if we think we’ve got a chance.
问:这么说富国银行不听劝了?
Q: So Wells Fargo wouldn’t listen to advice?
A: 科瓦切维奇从不听别人的意见。他只顾自己说。后来那位 CEO 倒不是一直说个不停,但就是无法让他明白——激励制度过于苛刻了。他就是——这是认知偏差,不是出于恶意。
这个问题很有意思。我个人认为,认知偏差给世界造成的破坏,远比恶意要大。
问:蒂姆·斯隆担任 CEO 已经两年多。一些批评者认为,他在修复文化或应对新丑闻方面做得不够。
A: Kovacevich never listened to anybody. He talked. And the next guy didn’t talk all the time, but it just didn’t get through to him that the incentives were too tough. He just had—it was a cognitive glitch, not a malevolence. And that is an interesting question. My own personal opinion is that more damage to the world comes from the cognitive glitches than does from malevolence. Q: Tim Sloan had been CEO for more than two years. Some critics say he didn’t do enough to fix the culture or respond to new scandals.
A:呃,我对这事比他们了解得更多。斯隆是个非常正直、不错的人。他是个非常出色的银行贷款人。而且所有这些银行都在用政府的信用来拿钱,它们都会倾向于做蠢事、放蠢贷。所以,当你手上有个好放贷人时,那恰恰是你最不该赶走的人。要我说,我自己就会把斯隆留下,可惜没人问我。
问:那现在谁会得到这份工作?
A: Well, I know more about it than they do. Sloan is a very honorable, good guy. And he’s a very good bank lender. And all these banks are using the government’s credit to get the money, and all of them will tend to make stupid loans. And so when you get a good lender, that’s the last person you want to throw out. So I would have kept Sloan, myself, but nobody asked me. Q: Who will get the job now?
A:这个问题很有意思。我希望是位银行家。
Q:沃伦·巴菲特不是说过他希望不是来自华尔街的人吗?
A: That’s a very interesting question. I will hope that it’s a banker. Q: Didn’t Warren Buffett say he hopes it isn’t somebody from Wall Street?
A:那就是华尔街。我同意(不希望有人来自)华尔街。不,我更希望是银行家。我们俩都希望找一个已经证明了自己是优秀银行家的人,而不是华尔街的人。我们不喜欢那群在瞎做决策的华尔街人。他们只想做容易的事,赚大钱。他们是金融工程师和销售型的人。
问:您认为还有谁能接替您、查理·芒格和杰克·博格尔(先锋集团已故创始人,指数基金先驱)的衣钵,鼓励更高的商业行为标准?
A: That’s Wall Street. I would agree with [not wanting someone from] Wall Street. No, I would like a banker. We’d both like somebody who’s already proved he’s a good banker. Not from Wall Street. We don’t like the Wall Street crowd that is making the damn decisions. They want to do the easy stuff and make a lot of money. They’re financial engineers and sales types. Q: Do you see anybody else who could succeed Warren and you and Jack Bogle [the late founder of the Vanguard Group and pioneer of index funds] in encouraging higher standards of business conduct?
A:你得知道,博格尔碰巧在某件重要的事情上是对的。但这[也]是他唯一的优势。他是个偏执狂。所以这是一种很古怪的特质。我不会让博格尔来掌管整个公司。他只是在一个极其重要的主题上[即最大限度降低投资成本的重要性]判断得非常正确,因此他做出了很大的贡献。
你问的这个问题牵扯很多。你想想看,一个大[企业]官僚机构,随着产业之轮的运转,最终爬到顶层的那些人是什么样,我们都知道。他们都是身材高大的人,智商还算不错,但并非绝顶聪明,属于那种会被选为兄弟会会长的人。所以,这就是能上位的那类人,你知道——80% 的情况下都是这样?当然,这并不完美。你其实希望有一种类似
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A: You’ve got to remember, Bogle happened to be right about something important. But that [was] his only advantage. He was a monomaniac. And so that’s an odd characteristic. I would not pick Bogle to have the run of the place. He just was very right on one very important subject [the importance of minimizing investment costs], and therefore he’s been very useful. You’re asking a lot. You take a big [corporate] bureaucracy and let the wheels of industry grind, the kind of people that come to the top, we know what they look like. They’re tall men and they’re the kind of men with reasonably high IQs, but not super-brilliant, who would have been elected head of a fraternity house. So that’s what rises, you know—what, 80% of the time? And of course that’s not perfect. And you want some kind of a MORE ON BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY philosopher king that can also do the work.
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你要求得太多了。这不会发生。
You’re asking for a lot. It doesn’t happen
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大多数人并不理解这一点,这是我毕生的经验之谈。沃伦和我得出了完全相同的结论:在最高层面,你需要一种特定的心智,它能够自动对投资和金钱做出正确判断。沃伦称之为“金钱感”,他说是“金钱头脑”。我在漫长的一生中发现,人们要么天生拥有它,要么就没有。如果没有,你无法创造它。它没法教给别人。你就是天生有它。要么有,要么没有。我们(在伯克希尔·哈撒韦)的一个秘诀就是,我们试图把权力交给那些拥有这种天赋的人。这几乎是一种与生俱来的本能,就像一份礼物,你会自动产生它。
但是,你知道,一旦你认识到有些人有这种天赋而其他人没有,而且很多智商极高的人缺少这种天赋——那么,如果你想要正确的思考,光靠雇佣聪明人是解决不了问题的,因为他们会干出很多蠢事。
一旦你领悟了这个重要的洞察,接下来就是:如果你不是一个天才,但恰好拥有这种天赋,并且你用它来避免生活中所有重大的标准愚蠢行为——只需把正常的思维问题反过来——那么,在广泛的领域里,你只要避免所有的愚蠢行为,并且做得比其他人好,你就可以变得极其强大。
问:你的工作日是什么样子?
What most people don’t understand, and this is from a lifetime of experience, and Warren and I have reached exactly the same conclusion: At the top, you need a certain kind of a mind that automatically makes sense about investments and money. Warren calls it the money sense. “The money mind,” he calls it. And what I have discovered in a long lifetime is that people have it or they don’t, and if they don’t have it, you can’t create it. It can’t be just taught to somebody. You just have it. You either have it or you don’t. And one of our secrets [at Berkshire Hathaway] has been that we try and throw the power to people who have it. It’s almost an inherited knack. It’s like a gift. You just automatically generate it. But, you know, once you realize that some people have the knack and other people don’t and that people with very high IQs, many of them lack the knack —so you can’t solve your problem if you want correct thinking by just hiring the bright people, because they do many dumb things. Once you’ve got that insight, which is a big one, something follows. And that is that if you’re not a prodigy but just have this knack, and if you use the knack to avoid all the big standard asininities of life, just invert the normal thinking problems, I’m just going to, over a broad range of disciplines, I’m just going to avoid all the asininities and I’m going to do that better than other people, then you can become enormously powerful. Q: What does your workday look like?
A:嗯,从我 1965 年放弃律师执业以来,我一直争取每天有大量时间用来阅读和思考,再跟几个朋友聊聊天。我这么做不是为了多赚钱,而是本性使然。我之所以要利用这种本性,是因为要养一大家子人。但这真的就是我的天性。沃伦也一样。我们都讨厌一天排太多会。我们都有大段的自由时间。外人看我们这种生活,觉得跟做学问似的。Q 真没想到你居然还有台电脑。
A: Well, I have always sought, since I quit law practice [in 1965], to have a lot of time in every day to read and think. And talk to a few friends about this or that. And I don’t do that because it will make me more money, I do it because it’s my nature. And I had to use that nature because I needed a living for a big family. But it’s just my nature. Warren’s the same way. We both hate too many appointments in one day. We both have long segments [of free time]. The lives we live would look to anybody else like academics. Q I’m surprised you even have a computer.
A:那可不是电脑!那是放大镜。我弄了这张桌子来放那放大镜,这样(视力衰退后)我好歹能看看报纸什么的。
问:你平常每天花多少时间阅读?
A: It’s not a computer! It’s a magnifier. I got this table to hold that magnifier so [with fading vision] I can eventually read a newspaper and so forth. Q: How much time do you spend reading in a typical day?
A: 哦,相当大。我每天晚上都读书读到睡着。我阅读量极大,而且喜欢这么做。不仅如此,我很早就发现,一旦学会了阅读和基础数学,我真的不需要教授或其他东西。我从书面材料中学到任何我想了解的东西,效果比听教授讲要好得多——因为他要么讲得太快,要么讲得太慢,要么在讲我已经知道或不想知道的东西。所以,我当然喜欢通过阅读来学习。
你看看 [安德鲁] 卡内基和 [本杰明] 富兰克林,他们只上过几年小学,全靠阅读自学成才。他们需要什么,就学什么。这并不难。想想看,在一天辛苦劳作之后,借着火光自学,没有灯,没有电。我们的祖先日子可苦多了。
Q: 有哪家公司拥有可持续的护城河,能抵挡亚马逊这类同行的竞争?哪家公司是“亚马逊免疫”的?
A: Oh, it’s huge. I read myself to sleep every night. I read enormously. I like doing it. Not only that, what I found very early in life was that once I learned to read and handle elementary math, I really didn’t need professors or anything. I could figure out almost anything I wanted better from the written material than from having some professor tell it to me, because he’d be going too fast or too slow or telling me something I already knew or didn’t want to know. And so of course I like doing it by reading. You look at [Andrew] Carnegie and [Benjamin] Franklin, they had a few years of primary school, they learned everything by themselves by reading. Whatever they needed, they just learned. It’s not that hard. Imagine educating yourself by firelight, no lamps, no electricity, after a day’s brutal work. Our ancestors had it tough. Q: Do any companies have a sustainable moat against competition from the likes of Amazon? Who is Amazon-proof?
A:我认为亚马逊更该怕好市多,而不是好市多怕亚马逊。因为好市多仓储条件更好,价格便宜得多,而且公众完全相信,他们卖的任何东西都是高质量、低价格的。所以,他们就是个沉睡的巨人,谁都没注意到——他们对任何配送体系都入局较晚。但最终他们会更高效,而且他们已经更受信赖。所以我想说,所有数据都表明,好市多根本不用怕亚马逊。
问:那伯克希尔呢?
A: I think that Amazon has more to fear from Costco than Costco has to fear from Amazon. Because [Costco has] a better warehouse situation, much cheaper, plus a public that totally believes that anything they sell will be high quality and low price, and so, and they’re just the sleeping giant that nobody —they’re coming late to any sort of delivery system. But in the end they’ll be more efficient and they’re already more trusted. So I would say all the figures show that Costco has nothing to fear from Amazon. Q: What about Berkshire?
A:其他人都应该很怕亚马逊。我没提伯克希尔!我说的是好市多。
问:大型科技公司能扛住要求拆分它们的政治压力吗?
A: Everybody else has a lot to fear from Amazon. I didn’t name Berkshire! I named Costco. Q: Can big tech companies survive the political pressure to break them up?
A:答案是肯定的。我认为,当这些变革的潮涌来临时,政客们——这就像逆着潮水撒尿一样。根本没用。只是,潮水太强了。我外公是做纺织品批发的,在二十五年里,纺织品批发一直是美国经济世界里一个永久性的固定行业。等到了 1920 年代,连锁店和西尔斯·罗巴克崛起,全国每一家纺织品批发商都破产了。没人怀念它们!没人能挡住潮水,也没人能挡住互联网——就是它让我只用 100 美元就订到了那张桌子。所有人都觉得受到威胁。但它不会消失。它也不该消失。这些潮水很重要。
对生意受冲击的人来说,这是坏事。但对世界来说,这是好事——如果我们全在一起挖土豆,那会是什么样?
Q:你介意去客厅聊吗?
A: The answer to that is yes. I don’t think that when these tidal forces of change come in, the politicians, it’s like pissing against the tide. It won’t work. It’s just, the tide is too strong. And my maternal grandfather was in wholesale dry goods. And that had been a permanent fixture of the economic world of the United States for a quarter-century, wholesale dry goods. And when the 1920s came and the chains and Sears Roebuck’s rose, every wholesale dry-goods house in the country went broke. Nobody misses them! Nobody could stop the tide, and nobody’s going to stop the internet that enabled me to get that table for $100. And everybody’s threatened by it. And it’s not going away. And it shouldn’t go away. Those tides are important. It’s bad for the people whose business gets hit. But it’s good for the world that the—what would it be like if we were all digging for potatoes together? Q: Do you mind going into the living room?
A:嗯,我不喜欢这样。但我是闷闷不乐,不是要造反。(笑声。芒格先生在他的朋友彼得·考夫曼的搀扶下站了起来。)我现在走路太不稳了,几乎走不了。
问:你对建筑的态度可不只是爱好而已。
A: Well, I don’t like it. But I’m sullen, not rebellious. [Laughter. Mr. Munger stands, with help from his friend Peter Kaufman.] I walk so unsteadily these days. I can barely do it. Q: Your approach to architecture isn’t just a hobby.
A:不会的。建筑师们可不喜欢我。
问:为什么不喜欢?
A: No. Architects don’t love me. Q: Why not?
A:因为我有自己的做法。并不是说我从来不会从建筑师那里得到好主意——我是会的。但归根结底,我要掌控一切。
问:你学过建筑学的基本原理吗?
A: Because I do it my way. It’s not that I don’t ever get any good ideas from an architect. I do. But in the end I want the control. Q: Did you study the basic principles of architecture?
A:哦,当然,我一直信奉一个理念——这想法可能来自(18 世纪英国作家塞缪尔)约翰逊——他说,“如果一个人能向西走,他就能向东走。”所以,那些我不懂的东西,我总能想办法弄明白。当然,我不会把这套用到脑外科手术之类的事上,但像在空地上规划一堆形状这种事,又不是什么尖端科技……我得找那些正中我兴趣点的事。这就像(托马斯)老沃森执掌 IBM 时常说的:“我只是在某些方面聪明,但我始终待在这些方面附近。”
问:你没有读过任何建筑方面的书?
A: Well, of course, I always had the idea, and I think it may come from [the 18th-century British author Samuel] Johnson, that “if a man can walk west, he can walk east.” And so what I didn’t know, I could always figure out how to do. Now I wouldn’t apply that to brain surgery or something, but something like laying out a bunch of shapes on a piece of ground, that’s not rocket science…. I have to have something that hits my sweet spots. That’s what Old Man [Thomas] Watson used to say when he headed IBM . He said, “I’m only smart in spots but I stay near those spots.” Q: You didn’t read any books on architecture?
A: 没有。从来没有过。我看了很多种不同的做事方式。我雇用的是那些做过我喜欢的事情的人。
Q: 你认为你在建筑设计上有哪些突破?
A: No. Never. I looked at a whole lot of different ways to do things. And I hired people who had done things that I liked. Q: What would you say were some of your breakthroughs in architectural design?
A: 我花了挺长时间。说起来挺丢人的,我都不好意思告诉你到底多久以前的事了……这恰好印证了那句德国老话:“我们老得太快,聪明得太晚。”……在加州大学圣塔芭芭拉分校,我在宿舍空间该怎么安排这件事上费了很大力气琢磨。那确实是一个非常有趣的建筑学问题。
A: It took me a while. I’m ashamed to tell you how long ago it took me…. It shows that old German saying: ‘We’re too soon old and too late smart’…. I worked very hard on trying to figure out the right thing to do [with dormitory space] at the University of California, Santa Barbara. That is a very interesting architectural problem.
Q: How so?
Q: How so?
A: 嗯,他们没有足够的土地。当然,这很难……在拥挤的地方,什么都难。所有大学,想招更多学生时,就把人硬塞进去。所以我设计了——我跟你讲不清——我至少花了一年半的时间做各种设计方案。唯一始终没解决的问题是每间卧室至少要住两个人,因为经济因素迫使你做这个决定。但我一直讨厌这一点。因为每个学生都讨厌跟别人共用卧室。
终于有一天,我正在琢磨这事,突然看到一种办法,能让每个学生都有自己的卧室,虽然很小。看到这个办法的那一刻,我就意识到这才是正确的解决方案。而我之前想的一切都愚蠢透顶。我可是花了一年半在上面啊!
把造船的原理用到陆地上,这还有什么比这更简单的?船上管用,陆地上就管用。一旦你这么做,土地使用密度会大大提高,获得巨大的经济效益,学生之间也更近,有助于教育——因为他们互相教育。
我上密歇根大学的时候,整个大学里我基本谁都不认识,除了我兄弟会的那些人。上这么好的大学却这么搞,实在太蠢了。那个年代人人都是这么干的,真的很蠢。但我到现在还在试图纠正这种愚蠢:把人们愉快地聚在一起,建设性地聚在一起,让小宝贝们互相教育。
另一件让人吃惊的事是,所有校园里的所有教室和一切设施,除了上课时间之外全都空着,这也愚蠢透顶。我意识到,同样一个空间,可以容纳一堂课或一场研讨会,也可以容下一帮学生开个私人会议或搞个娱乐活动;同样一个讲座厅,可以用来放电影或者搞音乐演出。所以我决定把讲座厅和教室空间塞进宿舍里,这些空间还能转用于娱乐。
这是全世界最显而易见的道理。你想想这有多合理。任何其他做法都愚蠢透顶。
但整个大西洋两岸,全世界在这个问题上已经愚蠢了多久,300 年?我就是要改变它。而且我知道我是对的。
但我不是靠什么灵光一闪就想出这个主意的。我花了很长时间苦苦挣扎,做错事,画了又改,改了又画。
A: Well, they don’t have enough land. It’s just, of course, it’s difficult…everything in a crowded place. All these universities, when want to take in more people, they really jam it. And so I designed, I can’t tell you, I worked for at least a year and a half on various designs. And the one thing I never got was below two people in every sleeping room because the economics forced the decision. But I always hated it. Because every student hates sharing your own sleeping space with some other person. And finally one day I was working on it [and] I saw a way to give every student his own sleeping room, small, and the minute I saw that I realized that was the correct solution. And everything I thought before is massively stupid. And I’d worked a year and a half on it! How can we get any simpler than using the ship-architecture principles on land? If it works on a ship, it’ll work on land, and the minute you do that, you get a lot more density of use of land, get huge economic advantages, and the students are nearer one another, which helps the education because they educate each other. Now, when I went to the University of Michigan, I knew nobody, basically, in the whole goddamn university except the people in my fraternity house, a pretty stupid way to go to a great university. Everyone did it that way in those days and it was really stupid, but I’m still trying to fix that stupidity. Throw people together in a pleasant way. Constructively. Let the little darlings educate one another. The other thing that was amazing is that, at every campus, all the classrooms and everything are totally vacant except when the classes are there, which is massively stupid. I realized that the same space that would have held a class or a seminar could hold a bunch of students having a private meeting, or a recreational meeting, and the same space that held a lecture hall would do a movie or a musical performance. So I decided to put—into the housing —lecture halls and classroom space that would convert to recreational use. And that’s the most obvious idea in the whole goddamn world. Just think of what sense it makes. Anything else is massively stupid. But the whole world has been massively stupid on both sides of the Atlantic on that subject for what, 300 years? I’m just changing it. And I know I’m right. But I didn’t come to this with some brilliant flash or something. It took me a long time of wrestling and doing it wrong and drawing and redrawing.
我之所以比大多数人稍微成功一点,部分原因在于我擅长摧毁自己最钟爱的想法。我早年就知道这会是一项有用的本领,并且多年来一直在打磨它。所以,当我能摧毁一个自己长时间苦苦钻研的想法时,我会感到欣慰。而大多数人做不到。
问:大多数人很讨厌那样。
Part of the reason I’ve been a little more successful than most people is I’m good at destroying my own best-loved ideas. I knew early in life that that would be a useful knack and I’ve honed it all these years, so I’m pleased when I can destroy an idea that I’ve worked very hard on over a long period of time. And most people aren’t. Q: Most people hate that.
A:没错。但实际上,我知道这里面蕴含着多大的权力和财富,所以我喜欢它。再加上那就是 enlightenment(启蒙)。权力、财富和启蒙。这组合不错。
问:为什么根深蒂固的观念这么难推翻?
A: Yes. But actually, I know how much power and wealth is in it, so I like it. Plus that’s enlightenment. Power, wealth and enlightenment. Not a bad combination. Q: Why is it so hard to overturn entrenched ideas?
A: 这太疯狂了。我正在纠正很多疯狂的事。但这是我的标准做法。我不会做任何复杂的事。我知道如何避免疯狂,即便它被视为惯例。我就知道这些。我甚至都不去试图显得聪明。我只是努力做到不疯狂,并且无视那些传统。你想要建筑结构能够顺应世界当下的样子和它未来的走向,而不是它过去的样子,这并不难。这只是最基本、最朴素的常识。但你必须抛弃一些旧有的先例,那些很愚蠢。
有趣的问题是,当事情如此显而易见,而你又从事建筑这样伟大的职业时,为什么人人都蠢得那么离谱?答案是,保持理性很难。人的大脑会给自己玩出上百万种把戏。这就是愚蠢的根源。想想你有多少次对自己说,“我他妈到底为什么要那么做?”
那简直就是极度愚蠢。我不喜欢极度愚蠢。伯克希尔的做法是,在重要的事情上,把决策权从蠢人手里拿走,交给那些擅长思考的人。这就是我们的秘诀。
这和已故教练约翰·伍登的(加州大学洛杉矶分校)篮球队用的是同一套系统,那是全世界最棒的球队。前七名球员包揽所有上场时间,其他人只是陪练。他们协助训练。而一旦他采用这套系统,他就打败了所有人。我们就是这样。每个年轻人都想买证券。我们可不想让年轻人去买证券!我们想要一个起点就高于常人、并且像沃伦那样经验丰富的人。而沃伦不需要随便哪个年轻人来帮他买一大堆证券,不需要每个年轻人都来帮忙。所以我们用的是伍登系统。这套系统有效得多。但想想看,我们的记录比那些有成堆的人互相交谈的地方要好多少。
Q: 你认为伯克希尔的回报会萎缩吗?
A: It’s insane. I’m fixing a lot of insanity. But that’s my standard thing. I don’t know how to do anything complicated. I know how to avoid insanity, even if it’s conventional. That’s all I know. I don’t even try to be smart. I just try and be not insane and pay no attention to the traditions. You want the architecture to facilitate the world the way it is and the world the way it’s going to be, not the way the world has been, and it’s not very difficult. It’s just the most elementary common sense. But you’ve got to throw away some of the old precedents, which are stupid. The interesting question is, when things are perfectly obvious and you have a great profession like architecture, why is everybody so massively stupid? And the answer is it’s hard to be reasonable. There are a million tricks the human mind plays on its owner. That’s what causes stupidity. Think of how many times you’ve said to yourself, ‘Why in the hell did I do that?’ It’s just massively stupid. I don’t like massively stupid. Berkshire tries to take the decision-making power, where it’s important, out of the hands of the stupid and put it into the hands of those people that are good at thinking. That’s our secret. It’s the same system as on [the late coach John] Wooden’s [UCLA] basketball team, the best in the world. The top seven players did all the playing, and everybody else is just a sparring partner. They help with the training. And once he got to that system, he beat everybody. We’re just that way. Every young man wants to buy securities. We don’t want young men buying securities! We want a guy who starts above normal and that has a lot of experience like Warren. And Warren doesn’t need just any young guy to buy a lot of securities, doesn’t need every young man to help. So we have the Wooden system. It works a lot better. But think how much better our record is than the places with armies of people talking to one another. Q: Do you think Berkshire’s returns will shrink?
A:嗯,我觉得这就像对变老和死亡有什么担忧一样。我当然不喜欢它。但当然,当你拥有几十亿、几百亿美元的时候,以百分比衡量的收益率记录自然会下降。我并不为此担心,我从一开始就预料到了这一点,也知道这终究会发生,但你不可能一直保持那样的——要想买卖几十亿、几百亿美元的证券,同时还能维持那么出色的记录,那太难了。而且如果你还要考虑税收等等因素,难度就更大了。当然,随着资产管理规模不断增大,那些伟大的记录自然会向下收敛。
到目前为止,李录(在喜马拉雅的)记录,管理大资金和管理小资金时一样出色。但那是个奇迹。我聘用的唯一一位外部基金经理就是李录,这绝非偶然。所以我现在是百分之百胜率。如果再试一次,我知道会发生什么。我的记录会完蛋。(笑声)
我们未来获得的回报率会比过去低。不仅是因为资金多了更难运作,而且我们年轻时遇到的是愚蠢的竞争对手——现在则到处都是激烈的竞争,每个领域、每个小角落都有人把守——不,这要难多了。
这也不是什么悲剧。实际上,你可以说,如果不是这样,那才太不公平了。
问:投资者还应该买入伯克希尔的股票吗?
A: Well, I regard that as like having any concerns about getting old and dying. Of course I don’t like it. But of course when you get billions and billions of dollars, the record in terms of percentage terms goes down. I’m not concerned by it, that’s what I [expected] from the very beginning and I knew it would happen eventually, but there’s no way you keep up the—it’s hard to buy and sell billions and billions of dollars in securities and have this wonderful record. And if you care about taxes and so on, it gets even harder. And of course the great records converge down as the assets managed goes up and up. Now, so far, Li Lu’s record [at Himalaya] is just as good with a lot of money as it was with very little. But that is a miracle. It’s no accident that the only outside manager I’ve ever hired is Li Lu. So I’m now batting 1.000. If I try it one more time, I know what will happen. My record will go to hell. [Laughter.] We’ll earn a lower return than we did on the way up. Not only is it harder to have all the extra money, but the times when we had idiot competition when we were young—now we’ve got tough competition scrounging every area and little niche with massive—no, it’s way harder. It’s not a tragedy. In fact, you could argue that if it weren’t like that, it would be too unfair. Q: Should investors still buy Berkshire?
A:嗯,那要看跟什么比。跟普通证券比,那当然比不上。跟我们年轻时候比,如果你手上还有我们当年那样的机会,那当然不该买伯克希尔。
问:跟标普 500 指数比呢?
A: Well, compared to what? Compared to ordinary securities, of course. Compared to what we did when we were younger, well, if you’ve got, if you’ve got anything like what we had when we were young, then of course you shouldn’t buy Berkshire. Q: Compared to the S&P 500?
A: 我觉得咱们能跑赢它一点点。但对一家市值超过 6000 亿美元的公司来说,这已经很不错了。这很难!大部分人不会做得像我们这么好。我今天跟沃伦聊过。我们正在收购一家小公司……就在这会儿。我们已经很久很久没买过大东西了。对我们来说确实越来越难了。其他那些人愿意出高得多的价钱。
问:如果有一家伯克希尔以外的公司,你会推荐未来一二十年持有,那会是什么?
A: I think it we’ll beat it a little. But that’s not bad with a market cap of over $600 billion. That’s difficult! Most people won’t do as well as we will. I talked to Warren today. We’re buying one little company…as we sit here. And we haven’t bought anything big for a long, long time. It’s really getting hard for us. These other people will pay a lot more. Q: If there were one company other than Berkshire you would recommend for the next decade or two, what would it be?
A:在美国,那就是好市多。在美国以外,买入中国最强的那几家龙头企业。
问:很多美国年轻人似乎开始反对资本主义,理由是收入不平等已失控。对此有什么办法吗?
A: In America it would be Costco. Other than in America, buy the strongest companies in China. Q: A lot of young Americans seem to be turning against capitalism, on the grounds that income inequality is out of control. What can be done about that?
A:根据我的亲身经历和阅读,我所知道的世界一直是权力集中的。没有不平等,你就不会有现代私有制资本主义,而正是这种制度创造了丰裕。所以,即使你的孩子们试图建立一个平等的文明,用那种方式耕种土地,最终也会吃不饱饭。很多事物必须个体拥有,让某人为自己获取和获益,否则你就得不到丰裕。你唯一的选择是让社会安全网变大或变小,而且你越富裕,就越能把这张网织得聪明或愚蠢。
换句话说,你那制造不平等、创造丰裕的文明越发达,你就越需要把钱投入到社会安全网中。现在,如果你去到一个像丹麦或瑞典这样的地方,很多现代学生会更喜欢那里,免费教育、免费医疗等等。如果要打赌,美国很快会变得更像加拿大,在更多免费大学教育、更多医疗保险以及全民某种医疗保障方面。我们负担得起这些,而且不会破坏文明的生产力。
……我们负担得起(更高的最低工资)。如果定得太高,会适得其反,但没错,一个繁荣的文明可以拥有更高的最低工资,就像它可以拥有社会安全网一样。别搞得太过分,你负担得起。
我的孩子里,支持民主党的比支持共和党的多。两边的都有。
问:你为什么认为美国最终会变得更像加拿大?
A: The world as I know it, from personal experience and from reading, has always concentrated power. Without the inequality, you don’t get modern private-ownership capitalism, which is what produces the plenty. And so even your kids, if they tried to make an equal civilization, and farm the land that way, would end up with not enough to eat. You’ve got to have individual ownership of a lot of things, with somebody getting and gaining for himself, because otherwise you don’t get the plenty. And the only option you have is to make the social safety net big or small, and you can make it stupid or [you can make it] wise[r], the richer you are. In other words, the better your inequality-producing civilization that produces the plenty is, the more you’ve got to put into the social safety net. Now if you get a place like Denmark or Sweden or something, a lot of these modern students would like it better, free education, free medical care and so forth. And if you have to bet, the United States will be way more like Canada pretty soon, in terms of more free education at the university level and more Medicare and some kind of medicine for all. And that we can afford without ruining the productivity of the civilization. …. We can afford [a higher minimum wage]. If you make it too high it will be counterproductive but yes, a prosperous civilization can have a higher minimum wage the way it can have a social safety net. Don’t make it too great and you can afford it. I have more Democratic children than I have Republican children. I’ve got both. Q: Why do you think the U.S. will end up looking more like Canada?
A:因为即便如此,现行的医疗系统仍然是个怪物。[我有个朋友,他妻子刚生了孩子,]他医保的自付额是 5000 美元。好吧,一个普通人,生个孩子要付 5000 美元自付额,那他们跟没保险没什么区别。对。这简直,简直完全错了。太蠢了。而且所有这些医疗保险公司,只要他们还在赚钱,他们才不管这给普通人带来多大压力。但是人们越来越愤怒,托德·库姆斯正在跟摩根大通合作解决这事。他会说美国所有的背部手术里,大部分病人,患者还不如不做手术。这可能说得太极端了,也可能他是对的,但我敢打赌,现在允许进行的那些不必要的背部手术的数量简直是——
医疗行业现在已经乱成一团。太多不必要的手术,太多不必要的检查,还有太多的官僚主义。
A: Because even so, even so, the existing medical system is a monstrosity. [I have a friend whose wife just had a baby,] and his deductible on his medical insurance is $5,000. Well, no ordinary person, a $5,000 deductible to have a baby, that’s, they don’t have insurance. Yeah. And it’s, it’s just, it’s just deeply wrong. It’s stupid. And all of these medical insurers and everybody, as long as they’re making money, they don’t care how hard it is on people. But people are getting madder and madder, and Todd Combs is working with JPMorgan Chase on this stuff. He would say that the majority of all back surgery in the United States, the students, the patients’d be better off without it. That may be too extreme or he may be right, but I’ll bet you the amount of unnecessary back surgery on patients that’s allowed to go on today is just— And medicine is just such a mess now. So much unnecessary surgery, so much unnecessary testing and so much bureaucracy.
问:他们打算在 Haven(伯克希尔与亚马逊、摩根大通联合成立的医疗合资公司)做些什么?
Q: What are they going to do at Haven [the new health-care joint venture launched by Berkshire in conjunction with Amazon and JPMorgan Chase & Co.]?
答:嗯,这事对他们来说很难。我避之唯恐不及,因为实在太难了。最终会发生什么,我觉得——但这需要的智慧可能比我理性预期的要更多——是消除成本的办法在于让提供大量医疗服务的机构按人头收费,因为这样一来,他们就没有动力为了多赚钱而延长患者的临终时间,也没有动力做大量不必要的检查。然后我们会有一套“凯迪拉克”计划,让富人可以买到他们想要的服务,因为所有富裕国家都这样——法国、英国等等。然后会有一个庞大的、可选性的系统,跟我们现在的系统很像。他们必须有一套相当不错的、人人都能享用的系统。
问:你对民主党总统初选有什么预测吗?
A: Well, it’s hard for them. I avoid that like the plague, because it’s so difficult. What’s going to happen ultimately, I think—but it takes more wisdom than I probably should rationally anticipate—is that the way to eliminate the cost is to have the people providing a lot of the care get paid per head because [then] they’ve got no incentive to prolong dying to make more money and they’ve got no incentive to do a lot of unnecessary testing. And then we’ll have a Cadillac plan so the rich can buy what they want, because all the rich countries have that—France, England and so forth. And then there will be a big system, elective system, that will look a lot like our present system. They have to have a system that is pretty good that everybody can have. Q: Do you have any predictions about the Democratic presidential primary?
A:嗯,我对皮特·布蒂吉格非常着迷,真的非常着迷。我觉得他跟其他候选人完全不一样,简直清新脱俗。我看他前途无量。他很有思想,也让人愉快。桑德斯在上面像一位怒气冲冲的教授,对着你训话。
我看他大有可为。[编者注:芒格先生是终身共和党人。]
问:现在指数基金持有伯克希尔 B 类股超过 23% 的股份。您担心它们变得过于强大吗?
A: Well, I am fascinated, fascinated, by that [Mayor Pete] Buttigieg. I think he is, he’s so refreshingly different from other people. I think he might go a long way. He’s thoughtful and a pleasure. Bernie looks like an angry prof up there, lecturing you. I think [Buttigieg] could go a long way. [Editor’s note: Mr. Munger is a lifelong Republican.] Q: Index funds now own more than 23% of Berkshire’s B shares. Do you worry that they are becoming too powerful?
A: 好事一件也说不定。问题的实质在于,过去一个很小的公司想干什么就能干什么,只要它把方案包装好、走完代理投票流程,那文化就是你想怎么干就怎么干。同一小撮人互相在对方的公司当董事。现在好了,指数基金里有了真正永久的股东,他们当然不喜欢这样。而如今指数基金开始施加一些影响力,这可能是加分项,可能会让事情变得更资本主义化。
也可能指数基金落到了不合适的人手里。我们不知道,但这可能是好事。不过在那些公司里的人眼里,这绝对不会被当作好事。见鬼,他们喜欢的是自己能随心所欲的制度,换你你也一样,要是你身处宝洁那种企业,你也不希望有人从外面来改变你的世界。
问:人们担心的是,指数基金持有一个行业里的每一家公司,指数基金会推动它们不要互相竞争。
A: It may be good. The truth of the matter is that in the days when a little corporation could do whatever it pleases, provided it mounts the thing and goes through the proxy process, then you had a culture where you can do what you damn please. And the same little crowd, they’re all directors of one another’s companies. And so now you’ve got a real shareholder who is permanent in the index thing and of course they don’t like it. And now that the index [funds] are starting to push people around a little, it may be a plus. It may make the thing more capitalistic. Or the index people may go into the wrong hands. We don’t know, but it could be a plus. But it will never be considered a plus by the people who are in the corporations. Hell, they like a system where they can do what they want and you would too, if you were at a venture like, something like Procter & Gamble or whatever. You wouldn’t want anybody changing your world from the outside. Q: The concern is that the index funds own every company within an industry and the index funds push them not to compete with each other.
A:嗯,到目前为止,这种情况一次都没发生过。他们彼此恨得牙痒痒,反垄断法又极其严苛,违反了是要蹲监狱的。我觉得你实际上是在担心一件极不可能发生的事。我们不想要——那些公司都太大了,我们不会希望雪佛龙和埃克森美孚凑一块儿商量怎么搞油价。那会招来一大堆反对。而指数基金里的人也不想去惹反垄断的麻烦。我们(伯克希尔)也有同样的问题。我们持有每家航空公司 4%、5%、6%、8%、10% 的股份。当然,司法部那边——我们甚至都不知道是谁在经营那家航空公司。我们不知道。我们买那些东西仅仅是把它们当作证券,我们并不——但我的意思是,我们的购买引起了巨大的关注,可我们对于那些公司的人会怎么行事、或者搞什么反垄断的密谋完全没有一丁点兴趣。但即便如此,还是有很多人盯着我们、来采访我们,司法部也会联系我。有些人连经营航空公司的是谁都不知道。
Q:那指数基金持有伯克希尔 B 类股大约四分之一,这不是个问题吗?
A: Well, so far there’s been zero of that. They hate each other so much, and the antitrust laws are so extreme, and people go to the penitentiary for violating them. I think you’re actually worrying about something that’s very unlikely to happen. We do not want, and the corporations are so big, we wouldn’t want Chevron and Exxon getting together and deciding what to do with the price of oil. That would draw a lot of opposition. And the people in the index funds don’t want to take it on an antitrust controversy. We [at Berkshire] have the same problem. We have four, five, six, eight, 10% of every airline. And of course the Department of Justice and—we don’t even know who’s running the airline. We don’t know. We’re just buying those things as securities and we’re not—but my point is, there’s this vast interest in our purchasing, and we don’t have the slightest interest in how those people will behave or organize some kind of antitrust or trust cabal. And, but even so, there’s a lot of watching and interviewing, and the Justice Department contacts us. One doesn’t even know names of some of the people who run the airline. Q: So it isn’t a problem that the index funds own roughly a quarter of Berkshire’s Class B shares?
A: 那算不上什么投票权。而且,再说了,沃伦看起来也不像一群自私自利的人组成的危险且根深蒂固的小集团。他自己不拿任何东西,把一切都捐给了慈善机构。顺便说一句,如果你真的看看世界上的这部分情况,看看基金会或养老计划持有的所有股份,它在全球股票中占的比例已经非常大了。所以它已经相当社会化了。现在这种社会化偏向高收入人群,因为他们养老金更多,但尽管如此,它已经相当社会化了。
我几乎不认识哪个靠着一大笔继承财富生活的人——除了我自己的家族。那些古老的家族也有离婚和挥霍无度的情况。而且那种人并不多,真的不那么多。你个人认识几个就靠坐拥大笔金钱生活的人?
Q: 现在企业比过去更难生存了吗?
A: That’s not much voting power. And, and, besides, Warren does not look like a dangerous entrenched cabal of self-centered people. He takes nothing for himself and gives everything to charity. By the way, if you actually look at the part of the world, if you take all of the shares that are owned by foundations or pension plans, it’s a very significant amount of the shares world-wide. So it’s already pretty socialized. Now it’s socialized in favor of the upper-income people because they have the bigger pensions, but, but nonetheless it’s, it’s quite socialized already. I hardly know anybody who is living on a big pile of inherited wealth—outside of my own family. Those old families have had divorces and profligates. And there isn’t that, there aren’t that many. How many people do you know personally that just sit living on a big pile of money? Q: Is it harder for companies to survive than it used to be?
A: 这不一定是因为组织内部存在弱点,而是生活中的现实,有点像死亡。如果你拿 1900 年美国最大的 100 家公司来看,[在今天的前 100 大名单上] 恰好只有一家还活着。但[榜单上的这种更替]发生,并不是因为所有公司都变弱了。而是因为竞争和变革变得极其激烈。它们全都倒下了。柯达倒下了,施乐也倒下了[从榜单消失],唯一剩下来的是洛克菲勒的标准石油[今天的埃克森美孚]。正是洛克菲勒的那两三家,至今依然坚挺。
A: It’s not necessarily the internal weaknesses in the organization, it’s a fact of life, sort of like death. If you take the hundred biggest corporations in the United States in, say, 1900, there is exactly one left alive [among the list of today’s 100 biggest]. But that [turnover on the list] didn’t happen because everything got weak. It happened because the competition and the change got so strong. And they all went down. Kodak went down, and Xerox went down [on the list], and the only one that’s left is Rockefeller’s Standard Oil [today’sExxon Mobil Corp. ]. It’s those two or three companies that were Rockefeller’s that are still strong.
其他一切都已下跌。通用电气是最后一个,现在也已跌出榜单。
Everything else has gone down. GE was the last one, and it’s just gone down [off the list].
这是一个自然法则,但这个法则是自然消亡,而非源于自身的孱弱。换种说法,它们只是自然而然地被环境的严酷所淘汰。我母亲家族经营的批发纺织品生意,倒闭并不是因为他们不擅长做批发纺织品,而是因为该死的外部世界变了。是的,批发纺织品商行已经没有立足之地了。这两种情况兼而有之:老牌企业变得故步自封、日渐羸弱,而外部环境则愈发艰难。接着……
It’s a natural law, but the law is not going down from weakness. A different way of putting it is that they just naturally died from the intensity of the environment. My mother’s family business, wholesale dry goods, did not fail because they weren’t good at wholesale dry goods. It failed because the goddamn world changed. Well, there wasn’t any room for wholesale dry goods houses. Both things happen: The old places get pompous and MORE ON CHARLIE MUNGER weak, and the external climate gets tough. And the
芒格的副业:设计大学宿舍——富士(富士胶片控股公司)没这么干
Munger’s Side Gig: Designing College Dorms combination—Fuji [ Fujifilm Holdings Corp. ] didn’t do
当查理·芒格说话时,你要倾听并学习。是【伊士曼】柯达公司毁灭了自己!那么到底是什么毁灭了它?
When Charlie Munger Calls, Listen and Learn away with [Eastman] Kodak [Co.]! What did away with
查理·芒格谈巴菲特成功的秘诀
Secrets of Buffett’s Success, According to Munger
柯达是不用银的新技术。
Kodak was the new technology that didn’t use silver
芒格 90 岁时:一连串尖刻妙语如连珠炮。数码摄影。富士用竞争手段让它受了重创。但柯达,如果它们只需要担心富士的话,柯达仍然会是 [前 100 强公司]。是数码技术彻底摧毁了它们。
嗯,这真不可思议。想想那些公司,举一个名字:美国皮革信托。它曾经是信托组织。它也在前 100 强里。如今——好吧,它们全都消失了。你知道,情况甚至更极端,因为洛克菲勒 [旗下的石油公司] 当时是在粉单市场 [场外交易],几乎没什么成交量。它就像一家永不会完全上市的私人公司一样。
……我有个朋友,他父亲在密西西比海湾沿岸拥有 1800 英亩的桐油树。把桐油加进油漆里,能造出世界上最好的船舶漆。因此,美国海军的规格要求,几十年来,规定海军所有舰船上的油漆必须有很大比例来自桐油。于是,这个家族靠着高产的桐油树林,以及海军对桐油油漆的绝对需求,他们乘私人飞机在柏树岬乡村俱乐部和家之间往返,简直是在印钱。
然后,突然之间,两件事发生了:第一,先进化学工艺的进步使得他们能造出比桐油树更优质的人造油;第二,所有的树都死了。我看着这个家族从极度繁荣走向了一无所有。
这很危险。谁能想得到呢?不是只发生了一件事,而是两件。他们没法重新种植,甚至就算他们愿意等也不行,因为他们在桐油上的全部优势——它曾经更好——消失了。这就是——但资本主义到处都充满了像我刚讲给你的这种故事。
Munger at 90: Hours of Zingers iodide film. Digital photography. Fuji dented it with their competition. But they, but Kodak would still be here [as a top 100 corporation] if all they had was Fuji to worry about. It was the digital stuff that absolutely destroyed them. Well, it’s amazing. Imagine those companies, a name: the U.S. Leather Trust. It was once a trust. It was in the top 100. And so it’s—well, they’re all gone. And you know, it’s even more extreme because since the Rockefeller [oil companies] back then were [traded over-the-counter] in the pink sheets, so it almost didn’t trade. You constantly had it as it a private company that might never get listed 100%. ….I had a friend whose father had 1,800 acres of tung-nut oils down in the Gulf, in Mississippi. You put tung-nut oil into the paint, it was the best marine paint in the world. And therefore the U.S. Navy specifications, for decades, required this big percentage of paint in all the Navy vessels to have to come from the tung nut. And so this family, with this very productive supply of tung-nut trees, and this absolute requirement that the Navy use tung-nut oil, the paint with the tung-nut oil in it, they flew back and forth in a private plane between the Cypress Point Country Club and their home, and they minted money. And then, suddenly, two things happened: No. 1, advanced chemistry got so they could make better artificial oil than the tung-nut tree could, and 2, all the trees died. I watched this family go from enormous prosperity to nothing. It is dangerous. Who would think of that? It wasn’t just one thing that happened, it was two. They couldn’t replant or anything, even if they were prepared to wait, because their whole advantage from having tung-nut oil, which was better, went away. It’s just—but capitalism is full of stories like what I just told you.
这很令人谦卑,但你不该感到意外。在一个我们都会死去、所有曾引领世界的伟大机构都将接力棒传给其他国家的世界里,我们为什么要对这些个体企业的消亡或衰弱感到惊讶呢?死亡中孕育着生命。当然,你只需观察生命是如何进食的即可。你还没完全死去,微生物和虫子就已经开始啃噬你了。生命以其他生命为食。生命吞噬生命。想想那些嗜极生物(生活在恶劣环境中的微生物)。
它们吸入硫化氢,排出硫磺。那可是个大惊喜。我们此前对此一无所知,我们没有任何类似的东西,没人知道还有这样一种替代的生命形式。如果你问一位科学家:“有没有任何生物体可以吸入硫化氢、排出硫磺,然后就这样快乐地活下去?”他们会说:“你疯了吗?”(笑声)可它们确实就是这么干的。
问:那么,按照这种自然循环的比喻,伯克希尔是否已经达到顶峰并开始衰败了?
It is humbling, but you shouldn’t be surprised. In a world where we all die and all the great institutions that led the world pass the torch to other countries, why should we be surprised that these individual enterprises die or get weak? From death comes life. Well, of course you can just watch the way life eats. You scarcely have time to die before the microbes are eating you, and the worms. Life eats some other life. Life eats life. Think of the extremophiles [microbes that live in harsh environments]. They take in hydrogen sulfide and shit sulfur. Now that was a big surprise. We hadn’t known that, we had nothing like that, nobody knew that [there was] any such an alternative form of life. If you would ask a scientist, “Can any living organism take in hydrogen sulfide and shit sulfur and just go on happily living like that?” They would have said, “Are you out of your mind?” [Laughter] That’s what they’re doing. Q: So, taking this natural-cycle metaphor, has Berkshire peaked and begun to decay?
A:嗯,我觉得伯克希尔靠自身的动力会变得更大……所以未来相当长一段时间内,伯克希尔都会再大一点点。但如果你把所有综合企业集团放在一起看,我们不是唯一成功的那个。大约有 20 家,其中一家是霍尼韦尔,不过我们刚少了一个——通用电气相对不那么重要了,不是说通用电气没有多少实力了,但他们确实把事情搞砸了。又一次,摊上一个太自负的 CEO,觉得自己懂太多。但人就是这样,觉得自己懂的太多,又让自我陷入炫耀自己有多聪明之类的事情里,那是很危险的。
伯克希尔用这么多自嘲式的幽默不是偶然的。那是保持清醒的必要条件。确实如此。
我们确实会犯错。想象一下,我花了一年半的时间才意识到每个学生都应该有自己的卧室,一年半!回过头看,怎么能有人这么蠢?全世界其他人都在这么做。所以这不过是跟在既定模式后面走。但我怎么能蠢到那个地步?还蠢了那么久?!这根本不是什么难想的道理。
不过话说回来,为什么建筑行业会有这么多巨大的愚蠢?在我的乡村俱乐部,他们请了这些著名建筑师来翻修整个地方。结果他们在音响效果上犯了这些基本错误,他们还得说,他们不得不这样,因为董事会成员说了:“我们不能冒犯历史保护主义者。”所以他们给愚蠢找了理由,但最终结果就是花了巨额费用,搞出一个愚蠢的结局。
A: Well, I think Berkshire on its own momentum will get bigger…. And so Berkshire will get a little bigger for quite a while in the future. But if you take all the conglomerates together, we’re not the only successful conglomerate. There’re 20 maybe, one of which is Honeywell , and, but we just lost one, the relative insignificance of General Electric —it isn’t that there isn’t a lot of power left in GE, but they really screwed that up. Again, got a CEO that’s too cocky and thought he knew too much. But they just, it’s dangerous to think you know too much and have your ego all involved in showing how smart you are and all that. It’s not an accident we use all of this self-deprecatory humor at Berkshire. It’s required for sanity. It really is. And we do make mistakes. Imagine me taking a year and a half to recognize every student ought to have his own bedroom, a year and a half! How could anybody be that dumb in retrospect? The rest of the world was doing it. So it’s following an established pattern. But how could I be that dumb? For that long?! It’s just, it’s not a difficult thought. But again, why should there be so much massive stupidity in architecture? In my country club they hired these famous architects to fix the whole damn place. And they made these elementary mistakes with the acoustics, and they would say they had to, they had board members that said, “We can’t affront historical preservationists.” So they had reasons for the stupidity, but the end result was vast expense and a stupid outcome.
他们承受着巨大的商业压力。大多数愚蠢的人,都会在商业压力下变得更愚蠢。千真万确。
问:有人曾问您,您的投资成功靠什么,他们期待着一个冗长复杂的答案,而您那句名言是,“我很理性。”那么,您如何定义理性?
They have huge commercial pressures. Most people who are stupid are under commercial pressures to be stupid. Absolutely. Q: Someone once asked you what accounts for your investing success, expecting a long complex answer, and you famously replied, “I’m rational.” So how do you define rationality?
A:那些自称理性的人,应该弄清楚事物如何运作、什么有效、什么无效,以及原因。这就是理性。如果你只知道过去什么有效,那没什么用,因为如果你明白了原因,你就会做得更好。所以理性就是:在广泛的多门学科中,你知道什么有效、什么无效,以及原因。
正因如此,像李光耀(新加坡已故总理)这样的人,堪称地球有史以来最伟大的国家建设者。他的座右铭是:永远搞清什么有效,然后去做。搞清什么有效,然后去做。你要搞清什么有效,然后去做——而世界上其他人总想取悦别人,或者想做些别的什么。我想要的是:搞清什么有效,然后去做。
而且,在弄明白某个其实不太管用的东西时,我能从中获得极大的乐趣。我很乐意坐在那里,在工程纸上涂涂画画,寻找能让某个项目变得更好——或者让某笔投资变得有意义——的小东西。
Q:李光耀不是说过,要从别人付过代价的教训中受益很重要吗?
A: People who say they are rational [should] know how things work, what works and what doesn’t, and why. That’s rationality. It doesn’t help if you just know what’s worked before, because if you know why, then you’ll be better at it. So rationality is: Across a broad range of disciplines, you know what works and what doesn’t and why. That’s why somebody like [the late Singaporean prime minister] Lee Kuan Yew was the best nationbuilder that probably ever existed in the history of the earth. His motto was: Always figure out what works and do it. Figure out what works and do it. You’re going to figure what works and do it [while] the rest of the world wants to please others or they want to do something or other. I want to be: Figure out what works and do it. And I get such pleasure out of figuring something out that’s not really working. I’m quite happy sitting with engineering paper doodling, looking for some little thing that can make some project better—or make some investment make sense. Q: Didn’t Lee Kuan Yew say something about the importance of benefiting from lessons paid for by others?
A:当然!我想尽最大可能通过学习别人的经验来汲取教训。靠亲身经历去吃苦头,代价太惨痛了。当然。我在脑子里收集各种大灾难和大蠢事。我这么做就是为了避开它们。想想看,伯克希尔遭遇过的大灾难有多少?少得可怜。这并不是说我们从未遇到挫折和失望,也没有出现过整个业务消失的情况。但算下来,我们比别人的倒霉事要少得多。
另一件真正有帮助的事是——很多人觉得极端的自私自利才管用。但事实并非如此。
如果你有善于合作、不自私的好名声,你赚到的钱只会更多,不会更少。在伯克希尔我都没法跟你说,有多少次我们买下企业,是因为卖家想为自己倾注心血的东西找个好归宿,他们信任我们会照顾好他们心爱的东西。用这种语言谈论企业,听起来很离谱。但你为什么不爱自己花一辈子心血建立起来的东西呢?爱它太自然了——那是你自己的创造。你当然希望它得到妥善照料。
A: Of course! I want to learn as much as I can vicariously. It’s too painful to do it by personal hardship. Of course. I collect big calamities in my head and big stupidities. I do that so I can avoid them. Think of how little in the way of big calamity has ever come to Berkshire. And it’s not that we don’t ever have reverses and disappointments in that or never have whole businesses disappear. But averaged out, we have less misfortune than others. Another thing that really helps is people, a lot of people think that real selfishness, very extreme, is what works. But it doesn’t. If you have a reputation for being decent to work with and unselfish, you make more money, not less. And at Berkshire, I can’t tell you the things that we have bought where the people wanted a good home for something that they love and they trusted us to take care of their loved one. That sounds ridiculous to talk about, in that language about businesses. But why wouldn’t you love something you spent your life building up? It’s very natural to love it – it’s your own creation. Of course you want it in good hands.
所以,良好的道德和道德声誉极为宝贵,这一点再简单不过了……人生正确的处世之道就是双赢。任何其他做法都愚蠢至极。只索取不付出,绝对是一场灾难。
问:你怎么看待过去几年里发生的那些性骚扰丑闻?
And so, so, good morals and a reputation for good morals are enormously valuable, and it’s just so simple…. The right way to go through life is win-win. Just anything else is crazy. To be all take and no give is just an absolute disaster. Q: What do you make of all the sexual-harassment scandals in the last couple of years?
A: 那种人该下地狱的最底层。利用权力把每个人都变成自己的性玩物,这是极其错误的行为。世界正在改变……我再举个例子。那些该死的发薪日贷款机构,简直就是社会渣滓。大家都在努力整治,但力度还不够。这个群体应该被彻底清除出市场。
还有我们利用彩票压榨穷人的方式!想想看,买彩票跟穷人的利益是多么背道而驰。这就像是对无知征收的税。他们本来就是弱势群体。我认为我们不应该这么做,当然所有类似的事情我都会投反对票。我每次都反对赌博合法化。但每次都是输。我感觉自己像是在推一根稻草,而每次总有更强大的力量在反推回来。
Q: 有人提到“延迟满足基因”——
A: Somebody like that ought to go to the lowest circle of hell. To use power to force everybody into your own, sort of a sexual plaything, it’s deeply wrong. The world is changing…. Let me try one. These goddamn payday lenders, they’re the scum of the earth. Everybody’s working on it but not hard enough. That’s a group that ought to be forced out of existence. And the way we abuse the poor with the lottery! Think of how contrary it is to the interests of the poor to play the lottery. It’s like a tax on ignorance. They’re vulnerable. I don’t think we should be doing that, but of course everything like it I’m voting against. I always vote against legalized gambling. I just lose all the time. I feel like I’m pushing on a straw and somebody is just pushing back harder every time. Q: There’s talk of a delayed-gratification gene—
A:我身上也有金钱基因。我当律师的头 13 年,总收入是 30 万美元。13 年下来,我有什么呢?一栋房子、两辆车,还有 30 万美元的流动资产。换成别人,早把这微薄的收入花光了,不会精明地拿去投资什么的。
我只是觉得,对我来说,这就像呼吸一样自然。我当然知道复利是怎么运作的!我知道,当我省下 10 美元时,我实际上是在省 100 美元或 1000 美元(因为这笔钱未来会增长),只需要耐心等一等。我之所以放弃律师行业,是因为我想为自己工作,而不是为我的客户工作,因为我清楚自己能比他们做得更好。
人这一辈子只有少数几次机会,机会来了就必须果断抓住,因为即使是在最幸运的人生里,这种机会也极其罕见。我母亲听我说这些,完全无动于衷。她对金钱或世俗意义上的成功从来不感兴趣,但她把这些故事讲给我听,只是因为这些故事让她觉得有趣。
我一直觉得机会很稀有。我只有那么几次,必须果断抓住。
我刚才讲的那个道理,据我所知,没有任何一家商学院会教。但…… 但凡有点头脑的人,都应该在人生一开始就明白它,可实际上几乎没人做到。
A: I’ve also got the money-sense gene. The first 13 years I practiced law, my income [from practicing law] was $300,000 total. At the end of that 13 years, what did I have? A house. Two cars. And $300,000 of liquid assets. Everyone else’d have spent that slender income, not invested it shrewdly, and so forth. I just think it was, to me, it was as natural as breathing, and of course I knew how compound interest worked! I knew when I saved $10 I was really saving $100 or $1,000 [because of the future growth of the $10], and it just took a little wait. And when I quit law practice it was because I wanted to work for myself instead of my clients, because I knew I could do better than they did. You only get a few opportunities, and you have to grab them aggressively when they come because even in the most favored life, they’re really rare. My mother listened to all this stuff, and it meant nothing to her. She was never interested in money or worldly success, but she just appropriated the stories to me because they’d amused her. I always feel that the opportunities are rare. I only get a few and then I have to seize them aggressively. Now that lesson I just talked about, it is taught in no business school I know of. But…everybody who has any sense ought to know [that] at the start of life, and practically nobody does.
也许世上只有一个 Mr. Right 或 Mrs. Right。你错过了那一个,人生就完全不一样了——你彻底搞砸了,可谓损失惨重。(笑声)可为什么没有哪所商学院教这个呢?答案很简单:教授们自己也不懂!
我刚才描述的就是现实本来的样子。如果把伯克希尔过去 60 年里最大的 30 笔交易拿掉,伯克希尔会变成什么样?不值一提。我的意思是,我们不会穷,但也绝不会富。大概每两年才有一次重大机会,机会并不多。
Maybe there will only be one Mr. Right or Mrs. Right. You missed that one and your life is not going to be the same. You’ve blown it—big time. [Laughter.] But why wouldn’t they teach that in every business school? The answer is the professors don’t know it! I just described reality the way it really is. How many, if I took the 30 biggest transactions out of Berkshire [in the past] 60 years, what would Berkshire be? Not much. I mean we wouldn’t be poor, but we wouldn’t be rich either. Maybe once every two years we had a major opportunity. Not very many.
查理·芒格(右)说他的长期商业伙伴沃伦·巴菲特(左)“如果身处一个很多人都在说蠢话的大会议里,他会头疼。” 图片:JOHANNES EISELE/法新社/盖蒂图片社
Charlie Munger (right) says his longtime business partner Warren Buffett (left) “gets a headache if he’s in a big meeting where a lot of other people are saying dumb things.” PHOTO: JOHANNES EISELE/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
Q: 那犯过的错呢?
Q: What about mistakes?
A:1966 年,伯克希尔买下了巴尔的摩的霍克希尔德-科恩百货公司,几个月内我们就明白了。我们知道自己犯了一个大错,它最终会变得一文不值。桑迪·戈特斯曼(来自第一曼哈顿公司)认识一些买下这桩生意的人,我们只亏了一小笔钱。然后,在恐慌之中,我们手头涌入了大量资金……我们买回了自己的股票,全部买回,价格只有它们价值的三分之一。所以,我们的愚蠢让我们变富了——买下霍克希尔德-科恩这件事。
它,它确实是一种进攻性与愚蠢的结合,但我认为这就是正常的生活。没有进攻性,没有那种机会稀少的意识,你作为投资者一生都不会取得伟大的成就。
当然,人们往往把投资教得像放射学一样:谁都能学会。放射学谁都能学会。他们知道癌症长什么样,这个那个,你也能学会。但在投资领域,没有那种你学完就能永远管用的东西。有些时候它管用,有些时候不管用;有好的捕鱼区,也有差的捕鱼区,还有各种不同的情况。这不是他们教投资的方式。
问:你认为人们对你的最大误解是什么?
A: In 1966 Berkshire bought that department store in Baltimore, Hochschild-Kohn, and we knew within a few months. We knew we’d made a big mistake and it was going to go to zero eventually. And Sandy Gottesman [of First Manhattan Co.] knew some people who bought the thing, and we took a minor loss on it. And then we had all this money that came in in the middle of a panic…. And we bought our own stocks, all of them, a third of what they were worth. So our stupidity made us rich, buying Hochschild-Kohn. It, it was really, it’s a combination of aggression and stupidity, but I think that’s a normal life. Without the aggression and the idea that opportunities will be few, you’re not going to have a great result as an investor over a lifetime. And of course they tend to teach things as if investment were radiology: Anybody can learn it. And anybody can learn radiology. They know what cancer looks like, what and what, and you can learn it. But there is no such thing in investment where you can just learn it and it will always work. There are times when it works well and times when it doesn’t, and there’s good fishing grounds and bad fishing grounds and there’s all kinds of things. That isn’t the way they teach it. Q: What do you think is the biggest misconception that people have about you?
A: 人们对我们的看法其实很简单。他们觉得我们有趣、成功、古怪,但这些对他们来说真的无所谓。他们活在不同的世界里,太遥远了。我们不符合既有的模式,也不把传统智慧当回事。当然,人们不太喜欢这样,但因为我们彬彬有礼、又有点幽默感,所以他们并不讨厌我们,不过心里确实不太舒服。
如果你拿我特别厌恶的行业来说,比如发薪日贷款(payday lending),我就会用非常尖锐的言辞批评那些人。正因如此,我会被发薪日贷款商记恨。但我不会改变,已经太晚了。
沃伦和我真正拥有的——如果你看看我们的合伙人、商业伙伴和搭档,我们这一辈子一个接一个地建立了极好的道德关系……这本身就是巨大的成功,因为我们根本不可能独自完成这一切。
还有格雷格·阿贝尔,他经营伯克希尔哈撒韦能源公司,他可能是最伟大的贡献之一。他做投资不如沃伦,但作为商人,很多方面他比沃伦更出色。
Q: 你为什么这么说?
A: What people think about us is very simple. They think we’re interesting, we’re successful, we’re peculiar, and it really doesn’t matter to them. They live in a different world and it’s just, it’s too hard. We don’t fit the models. We’re disrespectful of conventional wisdom. Now, of course, people don’t like it, but since we’re polite and humorous, they don’t hate us, but they don’t really like it. And if you take some profession that I really detest like, like, payday lending, I will say things about people like that that are distinctly critical. For that, I’m going to be hated by the payday lenders. But I’m not going to change. It’s too late. What Warren and I have had that really is—if you would take the, our partners, our business associates and partners, we’ve had just one great moral relationship after another over a lifetime…. That has just been a huge success because we couldn’t do all this ourselves. And Greg Abel, who runs Berkshire Hathaway Energy, he may be one of the greatest contributions. He isn’t as good an investor as Warren. But as a businessman, in many ways he’s better. Q: Why do you say that?
A:嗯,他很懂怎么管一堆公用事业公司,懂所有工程技术之类的,而且安全意识特别强,是个非常棒的人。
还有一点人们不了解的是,官僚体制自然而然会带来的那些功能障碍——你就光是有一大堆部门、一大堆那种东西就够了。
但我不去开会。沃伦也不去开会。
你把这句话写进文章里:整个伯克希尔文化里几乎就没有会议。偶尔打几个电话,没有会议。我不在乎你把这个登出来。沃伦要是在那种一大群人都在说蠢话的大型会议上,他会头疼得厉害。他不是装的。他是真的会头疼。
所以伯克希尔的部分秘诀就是:我们没有那些会议,没有官僚体制。我们把大量权力集中在格雷格·阿贝尔这些人手里。分散开来效果更好。
但不可能把伯克希尔当作放之四海而皆准的模板。
A: Well, he knows how to run a bunch of utilities, all the engineering and everything else, and he’s very safety-conscious and he’s a marvelous human being. And another thing that people don’t understand is the dysfunctions that come naturally with bureaucracy, just you get a whole lot of departments and a whole lot of that kind of thing. But I don’t go to meetings. Warren doesn’t go to meetings. Put that in your article: There’s practically no meetings in the whole Berkshire culture. There are a few telephone calls and no meetings. I don’t care if you print this. Warren gets a headache if he’s in a big meeting where a lot of other people are saying dumb things. He gets a sick headache. He’s not feigning it. He actually does. So part of Berkshire’s secret is, we don’t have the meetings, we don’t have the bureaucracy. We’ve concentrated a lot of power in the Greg Abels and so forth. It works better averaged out. But there’s no way to use Berkshire as a universal model.
问:但为什么伯克希尔不那么容易被模仿呢?
Q: But why isn’t Berkshire easier to emulate?
A:我们聊的都是些非常简单的道理,就是弄清楚那些常见的愚蠢行为,然后避开它们。而且我真的在收集这些愚蠢行为!
有人集邮,我收集的是疯狂和荒谬的事。然后我避开它们,这方法出奇地有效,因为我见证了那么多比我更有天赋的人栽在这些坑里。
如果我一心想发明更多量子力学,我只能当个二流选手。我的目标就是避开那些常见的愚蠢行为,结果我做得比许多精通量子力学的人好得多。
这是一个平庸之辈也能脱颖而出的方法,而且也算不上什么秘密。只要避开所有常见的愚蠢行为就行。这种愚蠢行为太多了,而且有那么多聪明人都在犯。
当个天才很难。我可不想当什么天才,我只想避开那些愚蠢荒唐的事,包括天才们干的蠢事!
……这使得一个能力中等、工作习惯普通的人,能获得远超他理应所得的成绩。想想看,赚大钱需要多大的天赋啊。
问:私募股权基金的收购行为是不是在制造泡沫?
A: We’re talking about very simple ideas of just figuring out the standard stupidities and avoiding them. And I actually collect them! Some people collect stamps. I collect insanities and absurdities. And then I avoid them, and it’s amazing how well it works, because I’ve gone by [the examples of] all these people that are more talented than I am. If I had set out to invent more quantum mechanics, I would’ve been an also-ran. I just set out to avoid the standard stupidities, and I’ve done a lot better than many people who mastered quantum mechanics. And it’s a way for mediocre people to get ahead and it’s, it’s not much of a secret either. Just avoid all the standard stupidities. There are so many of them, and so many brilliant people do it. Being a prodigy is hard. I’m not trying to be a prodigy, I’m just trying to avoid the inanities, including the inanities of the prodigies! ….That enables a man of moderate abilities and moderate work habits to get so much more than his logical deserts. Think of the talent it takes to make a lot of money. Q: Are buyouts by private-equity funds causing a bubble?
答:不,远没有当初房地产热潮那么糟,那会儿人们简直疯得一塌糊涂。不,远没那么糟……但正在往麻烦堆里走。那时(2000 年代中期),他们把钱借给根本不可能偿还的人,跟那些奸商开发商打交道。现在还没那么糟,不过当然也在往麻烦里走。到目前为止,贷款还在还,私募股权也在正常运作,还没出什么吓人的大爆炸。但如果出现一次大的经济收缩,这套系统下会发生什么,那可不会好看。它没装多少安全减震器。如果你在运营一个资本主义经济体,这么做可不聪明。
我不喜欢那些让人民痛恨资本主义的人,因为我认为他们在让你们的下一代这类人群对资本主义失去信任,把资本主义拖入它不该背负的骂名。他们在损害这个共和国,因为我并不喜欢投资银行家,也不太喜欢大多数这些资金管理人……他们什么都不懂。投资界有太多蠢货了。
A: No, it’s not nearly as bad as it was in the, in the real-estate boom, when people went stark-raving mad. No, it’s not nearly as bad…. It’s building up toward trouble. There [in the mid-2000s], they were loaning to people who couldn’t possibly pay the money back and dealing with crooked developers. This is not nearly that bad, but of course it’s building toward trouble. So far, the loans are being paid and the private equity is working out. Not any ghastly big blowups yet. But what would happen if we had a big contraction, with this system, would not be pretty. It’s not got a whole lot of safety shock-absorbers in it. That’s not smart if you’re running a capitalist economy. I don’t like people who make people hate capitalism, because I think they’re bringing discredit on it among people like your children’s generation, bringing capitalism into discredit it doesn’t deserve. They’re damaging the republic, because I don’t like investment bankers and I don’t like most of these money managers that well…. They don’t know anything. We have a lot of stupid people in the investment world.
你一直在招募那些想发财的年轻人,那当然会走向极端。你能指望年轻人怎么样?他们就像杜克大学篮球队或长曲棍球队那样行事,反正就是那样。……当你在喂给成千上万个想发财的年轻人时,一切都会被做过头、被推过头,所有人又都在拉进来更多想发财的年轻人,那当然会催生一种可怕的文化。
就算你雄心勃勃,抓住各种机会,你也不该发疯。他们就会不断地加杠杆,不断地加攻击性,那当然迟早会出问题。
我做的就是把权力交给特别有才华的人。这是我唯一能做的事。真正荒唐的想法我不会让他们去干。
You’re constantly recruiting young men who want to get rich, of course it’s going to go to excess. What do you expect with young men? They behave like the Duke basketball or lacrosse team or whatever it was and they just, that’s just the way it is. ….Everything gets overdone and overpushed when you’re feeding it gazillions of young men who want to get rich, and all of them are bringing in more young men want to get rich, and of course that’s created a ghastly culture. Even though you’re very ambitious and you grab your opportunities and all that, you shouldn’t go crazy. They’ll keep piling on the leverage and piling on the aggression. Of course that eventually causes trouble. What I do is I give power to unusually talented people. That’s the only thing I can do. And really ridiculous ideas I don’t let them do. Q: Is being in the public eye partly an act?
A:我一生中最喜欢的一句引语来自表演。晚年时,我一直欣赏的老英国演员塞德里克·哈德威克爵士说过这样一句话:“我当了一辈子好演员,以至于对任何话题都不再知道自己的真实想法。”[编者注:QuoteInvestigator.com 这个核实引语的网站未能验证这句话的出处。] 我认为,当你一直假装相信这个或那个,这种习惯会深入你的内心,让你彻底搞不清自己到底真正知道什么。
我觉得他说的是大实话。我们的政客和一些商界人物也是如此。如果你去读那些 CEO 的年报和发言——比如在 CNBC 上看到的——总是充满活力,他们在解决所有问题,手下有优秀的人才。你知道有一半时间是废话,但我认为每个人都信以为真。他们就像塞德里克·哈德威克爵士说的:“对任何话题都不再知道自己的真实想法。”他们给自己洗脑。我不这么做。
如果我对事情必须表现得更乐观一点,我会对自己说:“我在撒谎,但还是要这么做。”[停顿。] 我有一个儿子 [泰迪],[1955 年] 死于白血病。我告诉他他不会死。在他发病时,我撒谎了。那让我心碎,但我就是对他撒谎了。[长停顿。] 他当时 9 岁。[更长的停顿。] 我相信我做对了,但很痛苦。[清嗓子。]
但塞德里克·哈德威克爵士诊断得很准确。人们——当你高声喊叫时,其实是在把话刻进心里。这是人生的一大法则。这意味着,为了给别人留下印象而大声喊出某些话是很危险的。
A: My favorite quotation of all life comes from acting. Late in life, Sir Cedric Hardwicke, who I always liked, an old English actor, he said the following: “I have been a great actor for so long that I no longer know what I truly think on any subject.” [Editor’s note: QuoteInvestigator.com, a website that verifies quotations, wasn’t able to verify the origins of this line.] And I think when you pretend to believe this or that all the time, it’s so habit-forming to your mind that you do get confused about what in the hell you really know. I think he was speaking the literal truth. That’s what happens to our politicians and some of our business figures too. If you read the annual reports and the statements, say on CNBC, of our CEOs, it’s always robust, they’re solving all the problems, they’ve got great people. You know it has to be horseshit half the time, yet I think every one of them believes it. They’re like Sir Cedric Hardwicke: “I no longer know what I truly think on any subject.” They brainwash themselves. I don’t do that. If I have to be a little bit more cheerful about things, then I say to myself, ‘I’m lying, but I’m going to do it anyway.’ [Pause.] I had a son [Teddy] who died [of leukemia in 1955]. I told him he wasn’t going to die. When he started his thing, I lied. It just killed me, but I just lied to him. [Long pause.] He was 9 years old. [Extended pause.] I’m sure I did the right thing, but it hurts. [Clears his throat.] But Sir Cedric Hardwicke, he diagnoses it correctly. People—when you’re shouting it out, you’re pounding it in. That’s the great rule of life. And that means it’s dangerous to shout things out to impress other people.
如果你说“我要撒个谎”,就像我对我儿子那样说清楚“我要撒个谎,因为我不得不撒”,那就会好得多。
…… 富国银行的前 CEO 卡尔·赖卡特,我问他为什么干了件蠢事,他说:“查理,我当时脑子进水了。”那就是我喜欢的那种 CEO。他不是在开玩笑,而他是世界上最成功的 CEO 之一。他对自己做过的事交代得一清二楚。
我再告诉你一件事。我认识一些很棒的人。如果你把我这辈子共事过的人、我所有的商业伙伴都算上——到现在数量可不少了。和我共事过的所有人,包括沃伦在内,以及我们一起共事过、服务过的人,那是一段美妙的旅程。中间还充满了欢笑。
你得到好的伙伴,靠的是配得上他们。每个在我年轻时信任我的人,只要坚持到底,现在都富了。每一个人。这让我很欣慰。
但我也觉得其中有点运气的成分。我认为那些真正异常出色的记录,总是有些能人同时碰上了好运气。否则你怎么可能得出那么离谱的结果呢?当然(那)是运气和能力的结合。还能是别的什么?
问:那怎么看待遵守规则这个问题?
It’ll be much better if you say, ‘Here’s a lie I’m going to tell,’ the way I did with my son, ‘Here’s a lie I’m going to tell, because I have to.’ ….Carl Reichardt, the old CEO of Wells Fargo, I asked him why he’d done some dumb thing and he said, “Charlie, I had my head up my ass.” Now, that is my kind of a CEO. He wasn’t kidding, and he was one of the most successful CEOs in the world. And he gave an exact account of what he’d done. I’ll tell you something else. I know some wonderful people. If you take all the people I’ve worked with in my life, all my business partners, and I’ve had quite a few by now. All the people I’ve worked with including Warren, all the people we’ve worked with and for. It’s been a wonderful ride. And there’s been a lot of humor in it too. You get good partners by deserving them. Everybody who trusted me when I was young is rich, if they stayed the course. Every single one. That gives me pleasure. But I also think there was some luck in it. I think these good records that are really unusually high are always some able person that also has had some good luck. How else would you get a very outlandish result? Of course [it’s] a combination of good luck and ability. How could it be otherwise? Q: How about staying within the rules?
我们不允许法务部门拥有那种权力。我们根本没有法务部门。压根没人干这活儿。
我不想对律师事务所太苛刻——那是我以前的职业,我父亲和我祖父也都是干这行的。但我看不惯这个行业如今的样子。在内部强烈要求不断多计费的压力下,按极高的小时费率收费,还变得相当自以为是,接着就是大量无实际价值的工作。
在私募股权领域,做所谓的尽职调查相当典型。他们派出一群群年轻人去核查某处的所有采购订单之类的东西。伯克希尔从来不做这种事。从来不做!而我们收购的好公司和取得的成果比谁都多。
那些全是纯粹扯淡的无用功。可他们就是那么干,而且报酬相当丰厚。但当你一而再、再而三地这么做,熬到凌晨四点,以每小时 500 美元的价格向一群不知情的养老金领取者收费时,那简直令人作呕。
[某家私募股权公司] 在我科罗拉多的房子下方有一处钓鱼牧场。他们全年用颗粒饲料喂鱼,每只鳟鱼能长 6 磅重。然后他们带 XYZ 养老金的投资主管来钓这些大鳟鱼。这事儿千真万确!对他们来说,这就是正常的业务。
我认为处理这类事情的正确规则是,如果你与公共养老基金打交道,就只能在他们办公室见面,绝不允许他们收受哪怕一块手帕作为礼物。这才是正确的规则。否则,事情就会慢慢变味。
问:你怎么看一马公司(1MDB)丑闻?[高盛集团银行家陷入马来西亚一马发展有限公司这个腐败投资基金的丑闻中]
A: We don’t allow our legal department to have that kind of power. We don’t have a legal department. There’s nobody to do it. I hate to be too tough on the law business, which is my former profession and my father’s and my grandfather’s. But I don’t like the way the law business has evolved. Paying these very high hourly rates amid this big internal pressure to bill more and more and more, and getting pretty pompous, and then a lot of make-work. It’s quite typical in the world of private equity to do what’s called due diligence. And they send armies of young men around to check all the purchase orders or something, someplace. Berkshire has never done any of that. Ever! And we’ve acquired more good companies with good results than anybody else. It’s all just pure bullshit make-work crapola. And yet they do it, and it’s very remunerative. But when you do that, time and time again, and you’re staying up til 4 in the morning and billing $500 an hour to some unsuspecting bunch of pensioners, it’s just disgusting. [One private-equity firm,] they’ve got a fishing ranch right below my place in Colorado. They feed the fish with pellets all year round so every trout gains like 6 pounds. And they bring out these investment officers from XYZ pension fund, and they catch these big trout. This really happens! That’s just normal business to them. I think the correct rule on that stuff, if you’re dealing with public pension funds, is you never talk to them anywhere except their offices and you never let them accept so much as a handkerchief. That’s the correct rule. It just, it creeps otherwise. Q: What do you think of the 1MDB scandal [in which Goldman Sachs Group Inc. bankers got entangled in 1Malaysia Development Bhd., a corrupt investment fund]?
A:那是个骇人听闻的故事,高盛在那件事里形象当然非常糟糕。他们也活该丢尽颜面。我反感一种体制——只要出于审慎考虑就可以放弃某种赚钱方式,却从来不从道德上问问自己:“这种事我干得出来吗?”想想看,完全只给自己的行为设一条审慎底线,这有多荒唐。再想想这会惹出多少麻烦。你说,像高盛这么有钱的机构,为什么还要为了卷入马来西亚一桩肮脏的欺诈丑闻而上头条?[编注:高盛拒绝置评。]
Q:这话本不该随便问人,但我知道您肯定不会介意。您希望自己的讣告第一段怎么写?
A: That was a ghastly story, and of course Goldman Sachs does not look at all well in that. And they deserve to look terribly. I don’t like a system where any way of making money you would refrain from only for prudential reasons. There’s never a moral reason, where you say, “This is beneath me.” Think of how crazy it is to have only a prudential limit put on your conduct, totally. Think of the trouble that causes. Why, if you’re as rich as Goldman Sachs, do you want the headlines for being involved in a nasty cheating scandal in Malaysia? [Editor’s note: Goldman Sachs declined to comment.] Q: I wouldn’t ask most people this, but I’m sure you won’t mind. What would you want the first paragraph of your obituary to say?
A:沃伦和我都觉得,尽可能保持理性是我们的道德责任。很多人在某些方面才华横溢,却往往会在其他方面做出极其愚蠢的决定。我们俩都倾向于把世间种种蠢事收集起来,形成一张“蠢事清单”,然后尽力避开清单上的一切。
A: Both Warren and I feel it’s our moral duty to be as rational as we can possibly be. A lot of people who are brilliant in some ways tend to make these utterly asinine decisions in other ways. We both tend to collect the asininities of the world in a kind of checklist. And we try to avoid everything on the checklist.