蓝筹印花股东年度信函,1982财年(查理·芒格 / 唐纳德·科普尔)

1982 · 书信 · 原文约 8075 词
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致我们的股东:

1982 日历年度的合并经营利润(即扣除所有证券、抵押贷款和重要固定资产销售净收益前的利润)从前一年的 2089.5 万美元(每股 4.03 美元)增长至 2224.1 万美元(每股 4.30 美元)。

合并净利润(即扣除证券、抵押贷款和重要固定资产销售净收益后的利润)从前一年的 2762.6 万美元(每股 5.33 美元)增长至 4534.2 万美元(每股 8.76 美元)。

除母公司经营的基础业务(主要是 trading stamps)外,我们拥有四家主要子公司:喜诗糖果公司(100% 控股)、Mutual Savings(80% 控股)、精密钢铁公司(80% 控股)和布法罗晚报公司(100% 控股)。我们刚刚结束的两个报告年度的合并利润细分如下(除每股数据外,单位均为千美元):

净经营利润(亏损)

To Our Stockholders: Consolidated operating income (i.e., before all net gains from sales of securities, mortgages and important fixed assets) for the calendar year 1982 increased to $22,241,000 ($4.30 per share) from $20,895,000 ($4.03 per share) in the previous year. Consolidated net income (i.e., after net gains from sale of securities, mortgages and important fixed assets) increased to $45,342,000 ($8.76 per share) from $27,626,000 ($5.33 per share) in the previous year. We have four major subsidiaries, See's Candy Shops, Incorporated (100%-owned), Mutual Savings (80%-owned), Precision Steel (80%-owned), and Buffalo Evening News, Inc. (100%-owned), in addition to the basic business (primarily trading stamps) operated by the parent company. Our consolidated income for our two reporting years just ended breaks down as follows fin 000s except for per-share amounts): Net operating income (loss) of

年份

结束

Year ended about

See's(1)

See's(1)

Mutual

Savings(2)

Mutual Savings(2)

Steel

Business

Steel Business

《布法罗新闻》(3)

Buffalo Evening News(3)

所有其他

收益(4)

All other net income(4)

证券及固定资产出售净收益(5)

Net gains on sales of securities & fixed assets(5)

December

31, 1982

December 31, 1982

$12,217

$12,217

$3,296

$3,296

$276

$276

$(598)

$(598)

$7,050

$7,050

$23,101

$23,101

$45,342

$45,342

2.36

2.36

.64

.64

.05

.05

(.11)

(.11)

1.36

1.36

4.46

4.46

8.76

8.76

$10,647

$10,647

$3,393

$3,393

$1,560

$1,560

$(531)

$(531)

$5,826

$5,826

$6,731

$6,731

$27,626

$27,626

2.06

2.06

.65

.65

.30

.30

(.10)

(.10)

1.12

1.12

1.30

1.30

5.33

5.33

按蓝筹印花每股计算的 1981 年 12 月 31 日数据。

Per Blue Chip share December 31, 1981 Per Blue Chip share

蓝筹印花

Blue Chip consolidated net income

  1. 在扣除因收购喜诗糖果(支付远高于其账面价值的溢价)所产生的无形资产摊销,从而减少的收益之后。
  2. 在加上因按低于账面价值收购互助储蓄贷款协会而形成的折价摊销,从而增加的收益,并剔除互助储蓄买卖证券、抵押贷款及重要固定资产所产生的损益之后。
  3. 在扣除因收购报纸产生的相对较小的无形资产摊销,从而减少的收益之后。
  4. 在扣除利息及其他公司费用之后。每年,在将以下各项计入合并净利润之前,促销服务业务均存在经营亏损: (i) 主要由已发行但尚未赎回的印花税票所产生的“浮存金”投资所得的股息和利息,加上 (ii) 因在计算联邦所得税时可剔除 85% 的股息收入而产生的税收优惠,加上 (iii) 蓝筹印花公司分享的、由西科金融公司集团在其储蓄贷款和钢铁服务业务之外持有的证券和房地产所产生的股息、利息和租金,再加上 (iv) 1982 年蓝筹印花公司印花税票负债账户的净调整额 339 美元,即每股蓝筹印花公司股票 0.07 美元(税后净额),详见下文“促销服务业务及其他经营收入来源”部分。
  5. 1982 年的数据包括互助储蓄贷款协会出售抵押贷款支持证券的亏损,即每股蓝筹印花公司股票亏损 1,943 美元(每股亏损 0.38 美元),详见下文“互助储蓄贷款协会”部分,以及各实体实现的各种实体净证券收益 25,044 美元,即每股蓝筹印花公司股票 4.84 美元(已扣除税费和少数股东权益)。1981 年的数据仅涉及此类净证券收益。

上述对(相同总收益)的细分方式,与我们经审计的财务报表中使用的细分方式略有不同。

我们之所以不辞辛劳地准备这种非传统的收益细分方式,并在本信中提供,是因为我们认为,相比于我们随附的按传统格式编制的合并损益表,它能更好地解释实际情况。总的来说,我们每年都努力改进致股东的信,以便更好地披露我们作为被动投资者时被告知的内容。然而,我们并未刻意提供新颖或独特的描述。在事实多年不变且具有分析重要性的情况下,重复对我们来说是合适的,并且某些理念已成为我们固定的商业信条的一部分。因此,当之前使用过的词语、句子或段落看起来仍然适用时,我们便会直接重复使用,只是插入最新的数据。我们认为,在像致股东信这样的基本信息文件中避免重复,并不比在针对缓慢变化的发动机的维修手册的不同版本中避免重复更有优势。

我们并不幻想,我们这种仅限于黑白文字和数字的重复性年报形式是最佳选择。我们承认,图表和彩色图片的发明改善了沟通,但我们仍坚持自己的方式,因为这种方式在我们的特殊情况下已经足够,成本更低,而且与那些我们不愿效仿的金融公关实践关联更少。

1. After reducing income by amortization of intangibles arising from purchase of See's at a large premium over its book value. 2. After increasing income by amortization of the discount from Mutual Savings' book value at which the interest was acquired and eliminating gains and losses from sale by Mutual Savings of securities, mortgages and important fixed assets.

  1. After reducing income by amortization of relatively minor intangibles arising at acquisition of the newspaper.
  2. After deduction of interest and other corporate expenses. In each year there was an operating loss from promotional

services activities before residual consolidated net income was credited with (i) dividends and interest resulting primarily from investment of the funds available through "float" caused by trading stamps issued but not yet redeemed, plus (ii) income tax benefit caused by 85% exclusion of dividends in computing federal income taxes, plus (iii) Blue Chip's share of dividends, interest and rent from securities and real estate held by the Wesco Financial Corporation group outside its savings and loan and steel service activities, plus (iv) in 1982 a net adjustment of Blue Chip's stamp liability account in the amount of $339 or $.07 per Blue Chip share, net of taxes, as explained below under "Promotional Services Business and Miscellaneous Sources of Operating Income." 5. The 1982 figures comprise $(1,943) or $(.38) per Blue Chip share attributable to Mutual Savings' sale of mortgagebacked securities at a loss, as explained below under "Mutual Savings and Loan Association," and $25,044 or $4.84 per Blue Chip share of net securities gains realized by the various entities net of taxes and minority interest. The 1981 figures relate solely to such net securities gains. The foregoing breakdown (of the same aggregate earnings) differs somewhat from that used in our audited financial statements. We have taken the pains to prepare our unconventional breakdown of earnings and to furnish it in this letter because we believe it better explains what is really happening than does our accompanying consolidated income statement in conventional form. Generally, we have tried to improve our annual letter to shareholders each year so as better to disclose the things we would want to be told if the roles were reversed and we were passive investors. However, we have made no effort to provide fresh or novel descriptions. Repetition seems appropriate to us where facts remain both true and analytically important over many years and where certain ideas are part of our fixed business catechism. Accordingly, where previously used words, sentences or paragraphs appear adequate we simply repeat them, inserting up-to-date numbers. We see no more advantage in avoiding repetition in basic information documents like letters to shareholders than, say, in successive editions of a service manual for a slowly-changing engine. We have no illusion that our type of repetitive annual report, restricted to letters and figures in black and white, represents an optimum. We recognize that the invention of graphs and color pictures improved communication, yet we continue in our own way because it seems adequate in our special case, is cheaper, and is less associated with financial public relations practices we prefer not to emulate.

喜诗糖果公司

我们全资子公司喜诗糖果公司去年的盈利增长了 13.8%,考虑到 1981-1982 年经济衰退期间零售业的普遍状况,这算是相当不错的成绩。我们拥有喜诗糖果至今已整整 11 年。下表列出了我们拥有喜诗糖果的整个 11 年期间的对比数据:

截至年度

SEE'S CANDY SHOPS, INCORPORATED The earnings of our 100%-owned subsidiary, See's Candy Shops, Incorporated, increased 13.8% last year, a respectable performance considering the general state of retailing in the 1981-1982 recession. We have now owned See's for exactly 11 years. Comparative figures for See's for the entire 11-year period of our ownership are set forth below: Year ended about

Sales

Sales

税后利润*

Profits after taxes*

糖果销售量(磅)

Number of pounds of candy sold

截至年底开业的门店数量

Number of stores open at year end

December 31,

1982

December 31, 1982

$123,662,000

$123,662,000

$12,661,000

$12,661,000

24,216,000

24,216,000

December 31,

1981

December 31, 1981

112,578,000

112,578,000

11,130,000

11,130,000

24,052,000

24,052,000

December 31,

1980

December 31, 1980

97,715,000

97,715,000

7,747,000

7,747,000

24,065,000

24,065,000

December 31,

1979

December 31, 1979

87,314,000

87,314,000

6,473,000

6,473,000

23,985,000

23,985,000

December 31,

1978

December 31, 1978

73,653,000

73,653,000

6,289,000

6,289,000

22,407,000

22,407,000

December 31,

1977

December 31, 1977

62,886,000

62,886,000

6,262,000

6,262,000

20,921,000

20,921,000

December 31,

1976

December 31, 1976

56,333,000

56,333,000

5,618,000

5,618,000

20,553,000

20,553,000

December 31,

1975

December 31, 1975

50,492,000

50,492,000

5,308,000

5,308,000

19,134,000

19,134,000

December 31,

1974

December 31, 1974

41,248,000

41,248,000

3,229,000

3,229,000

17,883,000

17,883,000

December 31,

1973

December 31, 1973

35,050,000

35,050,000

2,069,000

2,069,000

17,813,000

17,813,000

December 31,

1972

December 31, 1972

31,337,000

31,337,000

2,332,000

2,332,000

16,954,000

16,954,000

这些盈利数字略高于第 1 页表格中蓝筹印花公司所确认的喜诗糖果利润份额,原因是蓝筹印花公司的份额中反映了:(i) 因以远高于账面价值的价格收购喜诗糖果股份而产生的无形资产摊销;(ii) 蓝筹印花公司收到的喜诗糖果股息需缴纳的州所得税。

喜诗糖果去年的总销售量(按磅计)表现良好,尽管提价幅度最终略高于通胀率,但销量与前年基本持平。门店销售额下降了 1.0%,即便有新店开业的带动作用。全年都在运营的老店,其销量降幅更大,达到 2.3%。每磅原料成本略有下降,这是多年来首次出现这种情况,但其他成本却急剧上升。如果这些其他成本能得到有效控制,使其涨幅更接近通胀水平,那么考虑到原料成本的有益趋势,盈利增幅本可以超过已报告的 13.8%。

These earnings figures are a little higher than Blue Chip Stamps' share of See's earnings shown in the table on page 1 because Blue Chip's share reflects (i) amortization of intangibles arising from purchase of See's stock at a large premium over book value and (ii) state income taxes on See's dividends received by Blue Chip. See's aggregate sales in pounds held up well last year, being essentially unchanged from the previous year even though prices were increased at a rate which turned out to be somewhat higher than the inflation rate. Shop sales decreased 1.0% despite the impact of additional stores. Shops operating throughout both years registered a a greater decrease in poundage of 2.3%. Ingredient costs per pound decreased slightly, the first such decrease in years, but other costs increased sharply. The failure to control these other costs so as to more closely match inflation prevented an earnings increase which, considering the favorable trend in ingredient costs, otherwise would have been greater than the 13.8% reported.

喜诗糖果是我们迄今为止收购过的最好的企业,远超当初相当保守的预期。我们作为未来预测者的记录往往很差,即使是对那些我们已拥有多年的企业也是如此,而我们对喜诗未来的低估如此严重,以至于我们能收购它简直是一种运气。不过,至少在过去十一年里,我们一直有足够的明智,希望喜诗的首席执行官查克·哈金斯,他毕生都在该行业工作,以他和企业的传统方式经营公司。查克·哈金斯是一位杰出的人,也是一位出色的管理者。能与他以及他和他的前辈、同事们共同创造的这种优质企业为伍,绝不是一种小小的荣幸。

美国人均盒装巧克力消费量基本停滞不前,糖果店业务仍承受着巨大的成本压力,1981 年和 1982 年,原材料成本先是反常地小幅上涨,随后下降,这在一定程度上缓解了压力。当喜诗每年提价以应对成本压力时,它永远不知道消费者的抵制是否会导致净利润下降而非上升。到目前为止,消费者一直愿意按所需数量持续购买,使得喜诗的利润以平均速度不规则地增长,而近年的大幅收益更助长了这一趋势,结果相当令人满意。如果喜诗的成本平均而言持续以快于整体通胀率的速度上升,那么这种情况逻辑上不可能永远持续下去。此外,在未来某些年份,大宗商品和原材料价格将大幅且意外地上涨,导致利润出现意料之外的下降。

或许是因为提价对个人消费的抑制作用大于对送礼的抑制作用,喜诗的季节性销售高峰每年都变得更加极端,这带来了许多运营难题,并使喜诗净收入越来越集中在 12 月这一个月。

当更详细地审视其行业背景时,喜诗迄今为止的成功就更加引人注目了。据我们所知,糖果店业务对所有其他公司而言仍然糟糕或平庸,它们往往同时遭受以下两种困境:(1)每平方英尺零售空间的销售额低;(2)业务的季节性极强,导致每年约 90% 的时间里,需要配备和维护的店面及人员的最低水平与销售额极不相称。

我们认为,尽管存在这些问题,喜诗的超额利润主要源于新老顾客都偏爱喜诗糖果的口感和质地,以及其分销体系所特有的极高水平的零售服务。这种顾客热情是由喜诗近乎狂热的坚持所激发的:使用昂贵的天然糖果原料,以及采用昂贵的生产和分销方法,以确保严格的质量控制和愉快的零售服务。这些品质所带来的回报是:店面每平方英尺的销售额异常高,通常是竞争对手的两到三倍;以及收礼者对喜诗巧克力有强烈的偏好,即使与更昂贵的品牌相比也是如此。

1982 年底,蓝筹印花公司合并净资产中,喜诗的权益部分价值 5050 万美元,其中包括足以支持喜诗每年圣诞节前大量存货所需的流动资产。显然,基于喜诗 1982 年 1270 万美元的收益,这项对喜诗的投资价值远超其在蓝筹印花合并资产负债表上的账面价值。

去年我们曾表示,喜诗将在 1982 年再次努力提高收益,并且实现适度增长是完全可能的。现在,这一说法同样适用于 1983 年。

See's is by far the finest business we have ever purchased, exceeding our expectations, which were quite conservative. Our record as foretellers of the future is often poor, even with respect to businesses we have owned for many years, and we so greatly underestimated See's future that we were lucky to acquire it at all. However, we have at least had the good sense all these last eleven years to want See's chief executive, Chuck Huggins, who has spent his working life in its business, to run the company in his and its traditional way. Chuck Huggins is a splendid man and a splendid manager. It is no minor privilege to be associated with him and the kind of quality enterprise he and his predecessors and co-workers have created. Boxed chocolate consumption per capita in the United States continues to be essentially static, and the candy-store business remains subject to extraordinary cost pressures, offset to some extent in 1981 and 1982 by a subnormal increase followed by a decrease in ingredient costs. When See's increases prices each year to reflect cost pressures, it never knows whether consumer resistance will cause net profits to fall instead of rise. Thus far, consumers have been willing to keep buying in the amounts required to keep See's profits rising irregularly at an average rate which, aided by large recent gains, has turned out to be quite satisfactory. This state of affairs logically cannot continue forever if, on average, See's costs keep increasing faster than the general rate of inflation. Moreover, in some future years commodity and ingredient prices will rise sharply and unexpectedly, causing unanticipated decreases in profits. Perhaps because price increases deter purchases for personal consumption more than purchases for gifts, See's seasonal sales peak becomes more extreme each year, causing many operating problems and a growing concentration of See's net income in the single month of December. See's success to date becomes even more remarkable when its industry background is examined in more detail. So far as we know the candy-store business continues to be terrible to mediocre for all other companies, which tend to suffer from a combination of (1) low sales per square foot of retailing space plus (2) the great seasonality of the business which requires staffing and maintenance of stores at minimum levels grossly unjustified by sales during about 90% of each year. We believe that See's exceptional profits occur, despite all the problems, mainly because both new and old customers prefer the taste and texture of See's candy, as well as the extremely high level of retailing service which characterizes its distribution. This customer enthusiasm is caused by See's virtually fanatic insistence on expensive natural candy ingredients plus expensive manufacturing and distributing methods that ensure rigorous quality control and cheerful retail service. These qualities are rewarded by extraordinary sales per square foot in the stores, frequently two to three times those of competitors, and by a strong preference by gift recipients for See's chocolates, even when measured against much more expensive brands. At the end of 1982, the portion of Blue Chip's consolidated net worth represented by its interest in See's amounted to $50.5 million and included liquid assets more than adequate to finance See's substantial annual build-up of preChristmas inventories. Obviously, based on See's 1982 earnings of $12.7 million, this investment in See's is worth considerably more than its carrying value in Blue Chip's consolidated balance sheet. Last year we stated that See's would try again to increase earnings in 1982 and that a modest increase was quite conceivable. This same statement now seems appropriate with respect to 1983.

互助储蓄与贷款协会

1982 年,我们在互助储蓄经营利润中所占份额略有下降,从上一年的 339.3 万美元降至 329.6 万美元。

上述 1982 年的 329.6 万美元经营利润份额,是在扣除蓝筹公司应承担的互助储蓄去年出售抵押贷款支持证券的税后损失中的 194.3 万美元份额之前的数字。而这笔 194.3 万美元的特殊损失份额,已在计算“证券、抵押贷款与重要固定资产销售净收益”时一并计入,这是本函中我们利润分类的最后一个项目。

能在 1982 年实现任何经营利润本身就是一项成就,因为在这一年,几乎所有其他储蓄与贷款机构都遭受了经营亏损。这种普遍糟糕的业绩源于“短借长贷”的业务结构,叠加与过往和预期通胀相关的高企利率,以及以往限制储蓄账户利率竞争的诸多监管规定被大量废除。这些机构被迫支付高于其所能覆盖水平的利率来留住储蓄存款——这些存款的收益率被锁定在多年前发放的长期固定利率抵押贷款上,而在当时看来,那简直像是另一个世界。

储蓄与贷款行业的惨状是加勒特·哈丁软科学原理(适用于商业、政治、经济学和法律等领域)的又一例证:坏主意往往诞生时看起来是好主意。某个初衷良好的想法在一段时间内运作良好,然后停止发挥作用,开始走向反面——储蓄与贷款行业的基本理念正是如此:极端化地进行短借长贷,同时依赖政府监管迫使储蓄者接受不合理的低回报。如果哈丁的原理如似乎可能的那样,是人类不可避免的遗产的一部分,那么悲剧只能部分地通过以下方式来避免:当过去珍视的理念被忠实遵循,而危险信号开始飘扬时,及时掉头。不幸的是,另一种反常现象在此干扰——思维倾向于拒绝与珍视理念不一致的危险信号所传递的信息。

在互助储蓄,我们盲目了太久,正如哈丁会预料的那样,但和其他储蓄与贷款行业一样,当危险信号不再只是向我们挥舞,而是开始用它来戳我们的头和肚子时,我们便开始更好地应对现实。

我们应对现实努力的最终结果——包括大规模出售分支网点——是互助储蓄继续赚取了适度的经营利润,尽管其持有大量短借长贷的头寸,其中包括一个固定利率抵押贷款组合,其平均利率可能是全美所有协会中最低的(1982 年底为年化 7.4%)。尽管存在这一不利因素,1982 年之所以还能产生经营利润,是因为互助储蓄拥有:

  1. 据我们所知,在所有成熟的美国协会中,股东权益与有息负债总额之比最高;
  2. 高于正常比例的资产配置于短期有息现金等价物;
  3. 远高于正常比例的资产配置于中期免税债券和公用事业优先股,这些投资的等税收益率约为典型协会抵押贷款组合收益率的两倍。

互助储蓄 1982 年底的资产负债表以摘要形式列示于我们随附财务报表的注释 1 中。

互助储蓄不寻常的资产负债结构,部分源于 1980 年出售其全部分支网点,随之产生的一个后果是只保留了收益率最低的抵押贷款,尽管这些贷款的剩余期限最短。1980 年在利率上升时期出售所有分支网点,这家机构是为了应对飓风条件而缩短“航行”,并非因为明确预见到飓风,而是因为被危险信号戳刺对我们通常谨慎的性格产生了影响。1981 年一场飓风袭来,其结局尚难预见,尽管由于经济衰退导致利率大幅下降,行业状况现已从其最糟糕状态有了显著改善。

互助储蓄剩下的是一个业务平庸的业务——以其所用资本所赚取的回报率来衡量。按其账面记录,1981 年底的股东权益为 4620 万美元,而 1982 年其经营利润质量并不高,仅为 330 万美元,即年化 7.1% 的不足回报率。(该经营利润质量不高,是因为它主要来自通过纳入其母公司的合并纳税申报表所获得的税收节省;这种利润虽然真实,但其抵御未来不利状况的储备缓冲远不如已用现金全额缴纳所得税且未来亏损时能从国税局收回的最优质利润。)然而,当蓝筹公司报告其在这项平庸业务中的权益收益时,结果却要好得多,因为蓝筹公司最初是以互助储蓄账面价值的大幅折价购入该权益的。1981 年底,蓝筹公司在互助储蓄的权益在蓝筹公司合并资产负债表中(扣除少数股东权益后)列示为 1820 万美元,而该权益在 1982 年为蓝筹公司的合并经营利润贡献了 330 万美元,即年化 18.1% 的回报率,其中包括每年按账面价值折价额的 1/40 摊销计入收益的 60 万美元。

通过考察下表,可以对当前情况获得一些额外视角:

MUTUAL SAVINGS AND LOAN ASSOCIATION Our equity in Mutual Savings' operating income declined slightly in 1982 to $3,296,000 from $3,393,000 in the previous year. The 1982 operating income equity of $3,296,000 is before deduction of Blue Chip's $1,943,000 share of an after-tax loss from Mutual Savings' sale last year of mortgage-backed securities. This special loss contribution of $1,943,000 has been included, instead, in computing "Net Gains on Sales of Securities, Mortgages and Important Fixed Assets," the final category in our earnings breakdown for purposes of this letter. Earning any operating income at all was an achievement because in 1982 almost all other savings and loan associations suffered operating losses. The generally poor results are caused by a borrowed-short, lent-long position, combined with high current interest rates associated with past and anticipated inflation and removal of much former regulation limiting rate competition for savings accounts. Associations have been forced to pay interest rates to hold savings accounts which are higher than can be covered by locked-in yields from long-term, fixed-rate mortgages acquired years ago in what now seems like a different world. The sorry state of the savings and loan industry is one more example of the operation of Garrett Hardin's principle for soft sciences (like business, politics, economics and law) that bad ideas are born good. A well-intentioned idea of some kind works fine for a while, then stops working and goes into reverse, as did the basic savings and loan idea of borrowing short and lending long to an extreme degree while depending on governmental regulation to force savers to take an inadequate return. If, as seems likely, Hardin's principle is part of an inevitable human legacy, tragedy can be averted, partially, only by reversing course when the danger flags start flying as the cherished ideas of the past are faithfully followed. Unfortunately, another perverse phenomenon interferes here — the tendency of the mind to reject the message from a danger signal which is inconsistent with a cherished idea. At Mutual Savings we were too blind for too long, exactly as Hardin would have predicted, but like the rest of the savings and loan industry we started coping better with reality when it stopped waving the danger flags at us and started using them to poke us in the head and stomach. The eventual result of our efforts to cope with reality, including a massive sale of branch offices, has been that Mutual Savings has continued to earn a modest amount of operating income despite having a substantial borrowed-short, lentlong position, including a fixed-rate mortgage portfolio bearing what is probably the very lowest average interest rate among all U.S. associations (7.4% per annum at the end of 1982). The 1982 operating income occurred, notwithstanding this handicap, because Mutual Savings has had: 1. so far as we know, a higher ratio of shareholders' equity to total interest-bearing liabilities than any other mature U.S. association;

  1. a higher-than-normal proportion of assets in short-term, interest-bearing cash equivalents; and
  2. a far-higher-than-normal proportion of assets in intermediate-term, tax-exempt bonds and utility preferred stocks

producing a tax-equivalent yield of about double that prevailing on the mortgage portfolio of the typical association. Mutual Savings' balance sheet at the end of 1982 is set forth in summary form in Note 1 to our accompanying financial statements. Mutual Savings' unusual asset-liability structure was caused in part by the sale in 1980 of all its branch offices, one incident of which was retention of only the lowest-yielding mortgages, albeit those with the shortest remaining terms. In selling all branch offices in 1980 as interest rates were rising, the institution shortened sail to allow for hurricane conditions, not because a hurricane was clearly foreseen, but because of the effect that being poked with danger flags had on our generally cautious nature. A hurricane came in 1981, the end of which is yet to be seen, although industry conditions are now considerably improved from their worst state, due to a substantial decline in interest rates incident to recession. What Mutual Savings has left is a less-than-mediocre business in terms of the return it earns on the capital it employs. As it keeps its books it had $46.2 million in shareholders' equity at the end of 1981, on which its operating income was of less-than highest quality and amounted to only $3.3 million in 1982, or at the inadequate rate of 7.1% per annum. (The operating income was of less-than-highest quality because it came largely from tax savings through inclusion in its parent's consolidated income tax return, and such income, while real, has less cushion in reserve against future adversity than the highest quality income on which full income taxes have been paid in cash and are recoverable from the IRS in the event of future losses.) However, as Blue Chip reports earnings from its equity in this less-than-mediocre business, the results are considerably better because Blue Chip's equity was originally purchased at a large discount from its book value on the books of Mutual Savings. At the end of 1981 Blue Chip's equity in Mutual Savings was carried in Blue Chip's consolidated balance sheet, net of minority interest, at $18.2 million, and this equity contributed $3.3 million to Blue Chip's consolidated operating earnings in 1982, or at the rate of 18.1% per annum, including $.6 million of amortization into income, at the rate of 1/40th per year, of the discount from book value at which the equity originally was purchased. Some additional perspective on the current situation may be obtained by examining the following table:

Calendar

year

Calendar year

蓝筹公司在其合并资产负债表中列示的互助储蓄银行股权投资,平均账面金额为

Blue Chip's average equity in Mutual Savings as carried in Blue Chip's consolidated balance

蓝筹公司从互惠储蓄银行所获现金分红中的占比份额为

Blue Chip's share of the cash dividend paid by Mutual Savings during the

蓝筹股从互助储蓄年度股息表中获得的净资产年化收益率

Annual percentage return on Blue Chip's equity from the Mutual Savings sheet year dividend

1975

1975

$11,975,000

$11,975,000

$1,932,000

$1,932,000

16.1%

16.1%

1976

1976

20,570,000

20,570,000

3,226,000

3,226,000

15.7

15.7

1977

1977

23,928,000

23,928,000

3,845,000

3,845,000

16.1

16.1

1978

1978

25,285,000

25,285,000

5,287,000

5,287,000

20.9

20.9

1979

1979

25,630,000

25,630,000

6,728,000

6,728,000

26.3

26.3

1980

1980

22,381,000

22,381,000

9,852,000

9,852,000

44.0

44.0

1981

1981

18,778,000

18,778,000

1,922,000

1,922,000

10.2

10.2

1982

1982

20,965,000

20,965,000

801,000

801,000

3.8

3.8

这张表格相当准确地反映了蓝筹公司收购互助储蓄公司大额股权后,对蓝筹股东产生的真实且总体上相当有利的经济影响。

去年的信中我们曾预计,互助储蓄在 1982 年不会分派任何股息。但实际情况是,尽管因非常规出售抵押贷款支持证券而出现亏损,该公司仍在 1982 年支付了少量股息,如上表所示。现在我们审慎预测,互助储蓄在 1983 年会派发更高股息。任何增加都值得欢迎,因为目前蓝筹公司在其投资账面价值上获得的股息回报率极不充分,而且这种不足相当明显。

在利率管制放松带来更加激烈的竞争环境下经营一家储蓄贷款协会——这几乎肯定会成为未来的常态——将构成一个挑战,我们至今尚未完全想清楚如何应对。卡车运输公司和航空公司的例子所呈现的放松管制效应,以及整个银行与储蓄贷款体系可能遭受冲击的可能性——这种可能性在二战后比任何时候都更显得真实——都让我们深感警醒。在金融机构的压力下,两党国家的立法者最近扩大了银行与储蓄贷款体系中那种“雌雄同体”的部分:存款(实际上)由美国财政部提供保险,而存款人获得的利率却可以(大致上)由受保机构自行决定。我们希望自己的判断是错误的——从最近体系的变化中,我们预见到那些本应被引导向相反方向的机构,反而会越来越被鼓励从事长期来看不稳健的做法。

我们有一个核心决心:通过保持财务实力,以及在扩张(包括收购)、收缩和服务调整方面保持高度灵活性——这些服务意在创造比其他人提供的标准化金融服务更具市场差异化的产品——来保留大量选择空间。

我们无意出售互助储蓄。我们希望它最终能找到一条途径,赚取更高利润,至少足以支付股息,使蓝筹公司股权账面价值能获得更令人满意的回报率。

在过去的几年里,没有哪家储蓄贷款机构的高管日子好过。互助储蓄和西科金融的首席执行官路易斯·文森蒂也不例外。在我们看来,他创造的成绩优于同行,这既体现了其非凡的才干,也体现了他对储户和股东高度负责的精神。

This table pretty well reflects the essence of real, and on balance quite favorable, economic effects on Blue Chip shareholders caused by Blue Chip's acquisition of a large interest in Mutual Savings. In last year's letter we reported that we expected Mutual Savings to pay no dividend at all in 1982. Instead, despite the loss from an unusual sale of mortgage-backed securities, a modest 1982 dividend was paid, as reflected in the table above, and we now guardedly forecast a larger dividend from Mutual Savings in 1983. Any increase would be welcome, because the present dividend return on Blue Chip's carrying value of its investment is inadequate, and not in any small degree. Operating a savings and loan association under the more competitive conditions which will almost surely prevail in the future as a consequence of deregulation of rates of interest paid to savers is going to present a challenge which, so far, we haven't fully figured out how to meet. We are sobered by the examples of deregulation effects presented by trucking companies and airlines, and by the possibility of shocks to the whole bank/savings and loan system which now appear more conceivable than at any other time after World War II. National legislators in both political parties, pressured by our financial institutions, have recently augmented the hermaphroditic part of the bank/savings and loan system, where deposits are insured (in effect) by the U. S. Treasury while interest rates paid to depositors on those deposits can be (roughly) whatever an insured institution decides to pay. We hope we are wrong in foreseeing, from the recent changes in the system, increased encouragement of what in the long run will be unsound practice by institutions needing encouragement in precisely the opposite direction. We do have one central determination: to preserve a lot of options by retaining financial strength and by remaining very flexible with respect to expansion (including acquisition), contraction and revisions of services designed to create more differentiation in the market place from standard financial services provided by others. We do not have any intention to sell Mutual Savings. We hope that it will ultimately find a way to earn higher profits, sufficient at least to permit payment of dividends causing realization of a more satisfactory rate of return on the carrying value of Blue Chip's equity. No savings and loan executive has had an easy time in the last few years. Louis Vincenti, chief executive of both Mutual Savings and Wesco, is no exception. In our view the record he has created is better than those of his peers, reflecting both unusual talent and a very high sense of stewardship for savers and shareholders.

精密钢铁仓储公司(PRECISION STEEL WAREHOUSE, INC.)

我们持股 80% 的子公司精密钢铁,位于芝加哥郊外的伊利诺伊州富兰克林公园,1979 年 2 月 28 日以约 1500 万美元收购。我们的 80% 份额因此大约是 1200 万美元。它拥有一家历史悠久的钢铁服务中心业务,以及一家子公司,从事工具室用品及其他以自有品牌销售产品的制造与分销。精密钢铁的运营业务在 1982 年为我们的合并净利润贡献了 27.6 万美元,而 1981 年则为 156 万美元。盈利下降的原因是:(1)钢铁行业严重的衰退状况持续;(2)一项商业错误的影响——即进入小型量具分销业务,该业务在 1982 年关闭,相关纠正成本高昂。即使在衰退条件下,运营仍保持盈利,我们预计 1983 年的盈利至少会有所改善。

PRECISION STEEL WAREHOUSE, INC. Our 80%-owned Precision Steel subsidiary, located in the outskirts of Chicago at Franklin Park, Illinois, was acquired for approximately $15 million on February 28, 1979. Our 80% share of the price was thus about $12 million. It owns a longestablished steel service center business and a subsidiary engaged in the manufacture and distribution of tool room supplies and other products sold under its own brand names. Precision Steel's operating businesses contributed $276,000 to our consolidated net income in 1982 compared with $1,560,000 in 1981. The decrease in earnings was caused by a continuation of (1) severe recessionary conditions in the steel industry, and (2) effects of a business mistake, now corrected at substantial cost, namely entry into a small measuring-tool distribution business, closed down in 1982. Even under recessionary conditions operations remain profitable, and we anticipate at least some improvement in earnings for 1983.

按照蓝筹印花每单位权益的账面价值计算,拥有并经营 100% 精密钢铁公司业务所需的最低股东权益,以 1982 年的规模为准,约为 1300 万美元。1982 年该业务盈利仅为 30 万美元,年回报率仅 2.3%,非常不理想。

我们当初收购精密钢铁时就知道,在通胀环境下,要依靠经营该业务所需的无杠杆权益资本获得令人满意的回报是很困难的。因此我们通过借款来支付收购价款,并尽快以固定利率进行再融资,以此增加一些杠杆。我们通常对财务杠杆持保留态度,但在这种情况下,我们愿意借钱来收购像精密钢铁这样干净、盈利尚可的公司,作为我们业务组合的一部分——这类公司以 LIFO(后进先出法)计价的存货占总资产的很大比例,且在没有选择性扩张的情况下,其报告收益预计通常能转化为现金。

收购后,如上所述,精密钢铁的盈利令人失望,但其设施和资产负债表依然保持一流水平。

互助储蓄和精密钢铁这两家公司均由蓝筹印花通过其持有 80% 股权的西科金融公司(Wesco Financial Corporation)拥有。西科是一家在美国证券交易所上市交易的公众公司。为获取更完整的信息,我们鼓励蓝筹印花的股东索取西科 1982 年年报。只需将请求寄至:

西科金融公司

315 East Colorado Boulevard

Pasadena, California 91109

收件人:财务主管 Jeanne Leach 女士

The minimum shareholders' equity, at Blue Chip's carrying value per unit of equity, required to own and operate 100% of Precision Steel's business at its 1982 level is about $13 million on which the business earned $.3 million in 1982 or at a very inadequate rate of 2.3% per annum. We knew when we purchased Precision Steel that earning a return, satisfactory under inflationary conditions, on the unleveraged equity capital required to operate its business would be difficult, and we supplied some leverage by borrowing the purchase price, refinancing at a fixed rate as soon as practicable. We ordinarily have reservations concerning financial leverage but are willing, as in this case, to borrow money to purchase as part of our mix of businesses a clean and moderately profitable company like Precision Steel where inventories carried on the LIFO basis represent a substantial part of total assets and where reported earnings are expected usually to turn up in cash, absent optional expansion. After acquisition, as above reported, Precision Steel's earnings have been a disap-pointment, but its facilities and balance sheet remain in first-class shape. Both Mutual Savings and Precision Steel are owned by Blue Chip Stamps through 80% control of Wesco Financial Corporation, a public company with shares traded on the American Stock Exchange. For more complete information, we encourage Blue Chip shareholders to obtain a copy of Wesco's 1982 annual report. Simply make your request to: Wesco Financial Corporation 315 East Colorado Boulevard Pasadena, California 91109 Attention: Mrs. Jeanne Leach, Treasurer

《布法罗新闻》公司

我们全资拥有的报纸子公司《布法罗新闻》公司 1982 年的税前经营亏损高于 1981 年,从上一年的 109.1 万美元小幅增至 127 万美元。因此,从我们报纸业务 1982 年全年的数据表面上看,我们去年的说法似乎是正确的——当时我们针对《布法罗新闻》表示:“我们自信地预测,《布法罗新闻》 1982 年的经营数据不会有改善。我们预计 1982 年《布法罗新闻》将面临恶劣的市场环境。”

然而,当我们进入 1983 年时,背后的现实情况与去年致股东信中预测的糟糕局面大相径庭。我们去年未能预见到的是,《布法罗新闻》在布法罗最重要的竞争对手《信使快报》的倒闭——该报于 1982 年 9 月 19 日停止出版,使得《布法罗新闻》成为纽约州大布法罗地区唯一的大都会日报。

在《信使快报》倒闭之前,《布法罗新闻》及其员工深陷一场在饱受衰退困扰的市场(尽管这座城市本身不错)中的激烈生存战。这场斗争的结局始终不确定。如今,《布法罗新闻》及其员工的经济前景相比之前极其危险的状态已有所改善。事实上,1982 年 11 月和 12 月赚取的利润足以抵消与扩大发行量相关的绝大部分特殊成本和损失,其中包括在《信使快报》9 月停刊后启动《布法罗新闻》首个平日早版。我们现在预计《布法罗新闻》1983 年全年将实现盈利。我们的最终目标是在税后实现 10% 的销售利润率,并希望在 1983 年能完成这一目标的一半以上。我们的目标销售回报率接近《布法罗新闻》这类报纸业务的正常水平。

我们不会在此详细复述《布法罗新闻》与《信使快报》之间在布法罗的竞争和诉讼长篇记录。那一章已经结束。希望重温记忆的股东应阅读去年信中关于《布法罗新闻》的部分。从我们 1977 年收购《布法罗新闻》到 1982 年底的最新历史要点如下:

  1. 我们于 1977 年 4 月以约 3400 万美元收购了《布法罗新闻》。
  2. 在我们收购后至 1982 年 12 月 31 日期间,《布法罗新闻》税前亏损约 1200 万美元。
  3. 这些亏损的税后影响使我们在合并资产负债表中对《布法罗新闻》子公司的账面价值在 1982 年底降至约 2800 万美元。(当然,此外,我们在许多年里从最初购买报纸所动用的 3400 万美元资金上完全没有获得任何回报,而如果我们将这笔钱投资到别处,我们本可以获得可观的复利回报。)

BUFFALO EVENING NEWS, INC. The operating loss, before taxes, of our 100%-owned newspaper subsidiary, Buffalo Evening News, Inc., in 1982 was higher than that of 1981, increasing marginally to $1,270,000 from $1,091,000 in the previousy ear Thus the surface indication from our newspaper figures for the full year 1982 would app. ear to be that we were correct last year when we stated with respect to the News: "We confidently predict a lack of improvement [in the News' 1982 operating figures]. We anticipate terrible market conditions for the News in 1982." However, the underlying reality as we enter 1983 is quite different from the poor situation forecast in last year's letter to stockholders. What we failed to foresee last year was the business failure of the Courier Express, the News' most important competitor in Buffalo, which ceased publishing its newspaper on September 19, 1982, leaving the News as the only area-wide metropolitan daily newspaper in Greater Buffalo, New York. Before the failure of the Courier Express the News and its employees were locked into an intense survival struggle in a recession-plagued market (albeit a fine city). The outcome of this struggle was always uncertain. Now the economic prospects for both the News and its employees are improved from the extremely hazardous state which formerly existed. Indeed, profits were earned in November and December of 1982 adequate to offset a major portion of extraordinary costs and losses incident to circulation-building, including start-up of the News' first weekday morning edition, after the Courier Express stopped publishing in September. We now expect the News to be profitable for the full year 1983. Our eventual target is a 10% margin on sales after taxes, and we hope to be well over halfway to this target in 1983. Our target return on sales is somewhere close to the norm for newspaper operations like the News. We will not here repeat in detail our long account of the competition and litigation in Buffalo between the News and the Courier Express. That chapter has ended. Shareholders who wish to refresh their memories should read the section about the News in last year's letter. Highlights of an up-dated history from our acquisition of the News in 1977 through year-end 1982 are as follows:

  1. We purchased the News for about $34 million in April, 1977.
  2. The News lost about $12 million, before taxes, after our acquisition and through December 31, 1982.
  3. The after-tax effect of these losses reduced the carrying value of our News subsidiary in our consolidated balance

sheet to about $28 million at the end of 1982. (In addition, of course, we have realized no return at all for a great many years from employment of the $34 million originally expended in buying the newspaper, and we would have realized a substantial and compounded return if we had invested the money elsewhere.)

4. 不过,我们在 1982 年底拥有的这家报纸,其经营状况远比 1977 年 4 月收购时好得多。以下对比大致体现了《布法罗新闻》的变化幅度:

1977 年 4 月

4. However, the newspaper which we owned at the end of 1982 is a much better business operation than the newspaper we purchased in April of 1977. The following comparisons indicate the rough dimensions of change at the News: In April, 1977

At 12/31/82

At 12/31/82

Weekday circulation

Weekday circulation

279,000

279,000

323,000

323,000

Saturday circulation

Saturday circulation

300,000

300,000

271,000

271,000

Sunday circulation

Sunday circulation

354,000

354,000

$43,000,000*

$43,000,000*

$85,000,000+

$85,000,000+

未来 12 个月的估计收入

Estimated revenues for next 12 months

代表自 1977 年 4 月起十二个月的近似实际收入。

写这段文字时,《布法罗新闻》在工作日发行量上排名全美日报第 21 位,1983 年 2 月约为 32.1 万份。同时,周日发行量约为 36.7 万份。尽管布法罗经济衰退,但《布法罗新闻》目前的周日发行量比《信使快报》1977 年独家出版周日版时的 27.2 万份高出 9.5 万份。

显然,考虑到其他出版商收购报纸的野心,《布法罗新闻》现在的售价很可能远超蓝筹印花合并资产负债表上记载的金额。不过,我们无意出售。我们为《布法罗新闻》骄傲,也为与它员工的合作自豪——包括亨利·厄本、斯坦·利普西、默里·莱特、克莱德·平森、戴夫·佩罗纳、迪克·费瑟等多位——是这些人带领《布法罗新闻》走到今天。同样让我们骄傲的是,我们精心守护了从报纸传奇主编阿尔弗雷德·H·基尔希霍夫(默里·莱特的前任)那里继承的新闻传统。我们希望在未来的岁月里,人们会认为我们是优秀传统的好管家,正如我们在《布法罗新闻》和喜诗糖果所做的那样。

尽管《布法罗新闻》现在的经济运营比去年强大得多,但它并非高枕无忧,原因如下:

  1. 近年来,都市报纸作为一个整体,在广告市场份额上输给了电子媒体。相比其他许多媒体,报纸出版本来就是一个极度消耗资源、能源和人力时间的行业,而这些媒体的影响力正借助快速进步的技术日益增强。近年来,报纸成本上涨的速度超过了它们对广告客户的价值,尤其是一些大型老牌报纸。原因之一在于,受劳动合同条款限制,报纸无法充分利用现代自动化技术带来的成本削减空间,而不受此类限制的竞争对手却能享受到技术变革的全部好处。
  2. 来自免费出版物和郊区报纸的竞争日益激烈。
  3. 零售业越来越集中在连锁店运营上,这些连锁店学会了不用报纸就能投递广告传单,而且当对报纸的普通版面或预印广告费率不满意时,它们经常这么做。
  4. 布法罗遭受的全国性经济衰退冲击远超其应有份额,并且这种情况还在持续。失业率曾高达 15.3%,许多大型重要零售商倒闭,导致可供报纸使用的广告总量每年缩水数百万行。正是布法罗地区这种极端的商业衰退,加上即使在经济繁荣程度高于平均水平的城市,两家竞争性报纸也难以甚至无法生存的普遍状况,共同使布法罗成为又一个只有一份地区性都市报纸的美国城市。事后来看,大布法罗地区近年异常糟糕的商业困境促使一个主要竞争对手消失,《布法罗新闻》可能既获得了某些好处,也承受了某些坏处。但从现在起,如果本地商业继续衰退,对《布法罗新闻》来说将是纯粹的灾难。所有管理者都知道,在一个扩张的市场中让所有者和员工都满意,比在一个萎缩的市场中容易得多。分割缩小的蛋糕通常比分割扩大的蛋糕更棘手、更充满争议。

这些不是小问题。在其他一些没有两家地区性都市报纸进行经济竞争的城市(有些比布法罗更繁荣),我们推测该都市报纸目前几乎没有盈利。

最后,我们的股东应该认识到,如果从他们的角度看,我们 1977 年收购《布法罗新闻》现在取得了可接受的结果(即便考虑时间延迟,这可能已经成真,这与我们去年的预测相反),但这并不能推导出,我们在当时以那个价格收购它是一桩明智的管理决策。回过头看,我们严重受到了喜欢这家报纸、喜欢它的人和这座城市的影响,可能只是在拿股东的钱赔率下注并赌赢了。在这个案例中,我们的管理责任充其量是可疑的。我们知道,如果运气稍有不同,我们现在报告的这个财务结果也同样可能是:(1)关闭《布法罗新闻》造成巨大亏损;或者(2)作为唯一有合理前景的防御策略的一部分,持续经营将面临更多亏损。

Represents approximate actual revenues for twelve months beginning April 1977. As this is written, the News ranks 21st among the nation's daily newspapers in weekday circulation, which was about 321,000 in February, 1983. At the same time Sunday circulation was about 367,000. Notwithstanding economic decline in Buffalo the present Sunday circulation of the News is 95,000 higher than the 272,000 Sunday circulation of the Courier Express in 1977 when it alone published a Sunday edition! Plainly, considering the ambitions of other publishers to add to their newspaper holdings, the News could now be sold for considerably more than the amount at which it is carried in Blue Chip's consolidated balance sheet. However, we have no interest in selling. We are proud of the News and of our association with its people — including Henry Urban, Stan Lipsey, Murray Light, Clyde Pinson, Dave Perona, Dick Feather and many more — who have led the News to its present position. We are proud, too, that we have nourished as well as we have the journalistic tradition we inherited from the News' legendary Editor, Alfred H. Kirchhofer, predecessor to Murray Light. We hope to be better known as the years pass as good stewards of good traditions, as we believe we have been at both the News and See's. Although the News is now a much stronger economic operation than it was last year, it nonetheless occupies no bower of roses, for the following reasons, among others: 1. Metropolitan newspapers as a group have lost advertising market share to electronic media in recent years. Newspaper publishing is inherently a very intense user of resources, energy and human time, compared to many other media, the influence of which is growing, assisted by rapidly improving technology. Newspaper costs have escalated more rapidly in some recent years than utility to advertisers, particularly at some large, old newspapers. One cause is newspaper inability, because of provisions in labor contracts, to realize anything like the full reduction in various costs possible with modern automation, while competitors not so restricted gain full benefits from technological change.

  1. Competition from free publications and suburban newspapers has increased in vigor.
  2. Retailing has increasingly been concentrated in chain-store operations which have learned how to deliver

advertising circulars without using newspapers and often do so when dissatisfied with newspaper run-of-press or pre-print advertising rates. 4. Buffalo has suffered and continues to suffer from far more than its share of the national recession. Unemployment has been as high as 15.3%, and many large and important retailers have gone out of business, shrinking the total amount of advertising available to newspapers by millions of lines per year. It was this extreme Buffalo-area business decline, plus general conditions making it difficult or impossible for two competing newspapers to survive, even in cities with above-average prosperity, which combined to cause Buffalo to become yet another American city with only one area-wide metropolitan newspaper. As things worked out, the News may well have realized some advantage as well as disadvantage as recent, above-average business misery in Greater Buffalo contri-buted to the disappearance of a major competitor. But any continuation of local business decline from this point will be a pure curse for the News. All managers know that it is easier to keep both owners and employees happy in a business in an expanding market, instead of a declining one. Shrinking-pie division is usually more troublesome and controversial than expanding-pie division. These are not small problems, and in a few other cities (some more prosperous than Buffalo) without economic competition between two area-wide metropolitan newspapers, we surmise that little or no profit is now being earned by the metropolitan newspaper operation. Finally, our shareholders should recognize that if our 1977 purchase of the News has now worked out acceptably from their viewpoint, which contrary to our prediction last year may now be true even after taking into account time delays, the conclusion does not follow that we made a sound managerial decision buying the News when we did for the price we paid. In retrospect, we were strongly influenced because we liked the newspaper, its people and the city, and we may simply have gambled shareholders' money against the odds and won. Our stewardship may have been, at best, dubious in this instance. We know that the financial outcome we now report could with slightly different breaks just as well have been either (1) a large loss on closure of the News or (2) the expectation of much more money-losing in continued operation, as part of the only defensive strategy with reasonable prospects.

推广服务业务及其他经营收入来源

我们合并净经营收入的最后组成部分来源于:(1)推广服务业务(主要是印花和激励业务)的经营利润,扣除了利息及其他母公司一般性费用后;(2)我们在西科金融持有的证券和不动产(排除其子公司的储蓄与贷款及钢铁服务业务)中应占的经营利润,扣除了利息及其他西科一般性公司费用后。

推广服务业务在扣除母公司利息、其他一般性费用及所得税后,去年的利润略有增加,从 365.9 万美元增至 421.2 万美元(这是合理归因于投资资金的全部收入,包括股息和利息,以及由股息带来的所得税优惠)。这些投资资金来源于:(1)已发行但未赎回的印花所产生的“浮存金”;(2)一定比例的股东权益资本。我们的股东不应因税后利润增加而受到鼓舞,这部分增长部分归因于 1982 年我们对未赎回印花负债的估计进行了有利的修订,而 1981 年没有这种修订,部分归因于股东权益资本的增加。这种赎回负债的修订,本质上不会频繁发生,使 1982 年税后利润增加了 33.9 万美元。

此外,正如我们在去年信中预测的那样,印花服务收入在 1982 年大幅下降至 920.3 万美元,而 1981 年为 1561.9 万美元。1981 年占我们印花收入 51% 的 Stater Bros. 超市连锁店于 1982 年 4 月 1 日停止发放印花,我们未能弥补这部分失去的收入。去年印花业务的主要好消息是向加油站销售的增加,这归因于当前汽油过剩导致的激烈竞争,以及一些客户在采用我们的计划后取得成功的令人振奋的案例。

在销售额大幅下降的情况下,我们印花业务仍能持续获得可观的利润,这完全得益于早期年份销售印花形成的“浮存金”缓慢退出。这种“浮存金”——源自过去印花发行量远高于当前水平时的发行——相对于当前发行量而言规模非常大。(印花收入在 1970 财年达到 1.2418 亿美元的峰值,而我们 1982 年的 920.3 万美元收入,相比峰值下降了 93%。)最终,除非印花发行量有所改善,投资“浮存金”的收益将大幅下降。而且,由于印花业务在不考虑投资收入时已经亏损,这种未来“浮存金”的下降将使本就糟糕的局面进一步恶化。这是因为任何非投资收入的显著下降,都不可避免地快于相关成本的下降。对于任何经营零售店连锁(如我们的印花兑换店)的公司来说,如果其“同店”销售额逐年下降,这就是正常结果。

在这种情况下,近年来我们的“浮存金”以极慢的速度下降,对我们有所帮助。1982 年底,印花赎回的预留负债为 6024 万美元,仅比 1981 年底下降 6.3%。

正如我们在以往年报(尤其是 1976 财年的年报)中广泛讨论的那样,我们敦促股东回顾这些内容。印花赎回负债的会计处理(涉及估计最终会赎回的印花数量以及每枚印花的成本)在任何情况下都是一项艰巨的任务,尤其是在通胀经济中和印花发行量大幅下降的情况下。我们会根据实际情况定期修订对未来赎回负债的估计。1982 年,我们进行了修订,如上所述增加了经营收入,详情见随附财务报表的附注 2。近期的变化(包括 1982 年的变化)既降低了我们对最终赎回印花数量的估计,也提高了我们对每枚印花总赎回成本的估计。随着赎回量下降,每枚赎回印花的商品成本保持相对稳定,我们希望这种情况能持续下去。每枚赎回印花的非商品或兑换服务成本则是另一回事。这类单位成本现在几乎肯定会从去年的水平大幅上升,因为未来赎回的印花需要分摊门店和仓库的运营费用,而这些费用无法以与赎回量相同的速度减少。1982 年的变化已考虑到了上述所有因素。

我们赎回负债中非商品成本比例较高,会产生不利的所得税影响,使账面负债每美元的真正“浮存金”减少。我们从账面报告的总赎回负债中可动用的现金,始终显著低于显示的负债额。原因之一是美国财政部的规定(我们虽对其合法性存疑,但仍遵从了),该规定不允许我们在所得税目的上扣除未来的赎回服务成本(例如门店运营费用),而只允许扣除未来的商品成本。这两类成本都是不可避免的,并且需要在经审计的财务报表中计提实际负债。国税局规定的所得税会计与我们经审计的会计之间的差异(并非全部源于上述财政部规定)带来的现金使用影响是巨大的。例如,在我们 1982 年底报告的 6024 万美元总印花赎回负债中,我们必须将 1717.5 万美元存放于美国财政部的一个无息存款账户中,在资产负债表中记为“预付所得税”。

我们仍然相信,对于超市、加油站、保龄球馆等场所而言,印花是一种有效的购买点促销工具。我们打算继续从事印花业务。

在我们相关的激励业务中,1982 年收入略降至 135.1 万美元,而 1981 年为 144.6 万美元。预计 1983 年收入将增加。

最后一个项目增加了我们的合并净经营收入。我们在西科金融持有的证券和不动产(排除其子公司的储蓄与贷款及钢铁服务业务)中应占的经营利润,扣除了利息及其他西科一般性公司费用后,1982 年为 283.8 万美元,而前一年为 216.7 万美元。

PROMOTIONAL SERVICES BUSINESS AND MISCELLANEOUS SOURCES OF OPERATING INCOME The final components of our consolidated net operating income last year were provided by (1) operating earnings from our promotional services (mainly trading stamp and motivation) business, after deduction of interest and other general parent company expense, plus (2) our share of operating earnings, after deduction of interest and other Wesco general corporate expense, from securities and real estate held by Wesco outside the savings and loan and steel service activities of its subsidiaries. The promotional services business operated at a slightly increased profit, after parent company interest and other general expense and income taxes, last year, up to $4,212,000 from $3,659,000 after (properly) giving it credit for the entire income (dividends and interest, plus income tax benefits caused by dividends) from investment of the funds available through (1) "float" caused by trading stamps issued but not yet redeemed plus (2) a reasonable amount of shareholders' equity capital. Our shareholders should not be encouraged by the increase in after-tax profit, which was attributable in part to the fact that favorable revisions in our estimates of our liability to redeem outstanding trading stamps were made in 1982 but not in 1981 and in part to increased shareholders' equity capital. The revisions in redemption liability, which by their nature will not frequently recur, increased 1982 after-tax profit by $339,000. Moreover, as we forecast in last year's letter, trading stamp service revenues declined drastically in 1982 to $9,203,000 from $15,619,000 in 1981. The Stater Bros. supermarket chain, which accounted for 51% of our trading stamp revenues in 1981 discontinued giving trading stamps on April 1, 1982, and we have not replaced the lost revenue. The main good news coming out of our trading stamp business last year was an increase in sales to service stations, attributable to very intense competition caused by the current gasoline glut, plus some heartening examples of customer success after adoption of our programs. Our continued substantial profits in the trading stamp business, in the face of huge decreases in sales, are made possible only by the slow departure of "float" from trading stamps sold in earlier and better years. This "float" — resulting from past issuance of trading stamps when volume was many times greater than the current level — is very large in relation to current issuances. (Trading stamp revenues peaked at $124,180,000 in fiscal 1970, and our 1982 revenues of $9,203,000 therefore represented a decline of 93% from peak volume.) Eventually, unless stamp issuances improve, earnings from investing "float" will decline enormously. And, since the trading stamp business already operates at a loss before taking investment revenues into account, such future declines in "float" will aggravate what is already a poor situation. This happens because any significant decline in non-investment revenues is inevitably more rapid than the related decline in costs. Such is the normal result for any operator of a chain of retail stores (like our trading stamp redemption stores) whose "same store" sales decline in dollars from year to year. Under such conditions it has been helpful to us that our decline in "float" in recent years has proceeded at so extremely slow a rate, leaving our reserved liability for trading stamp redemption at $60,240,000 at yearend 1982, down only 6.3% from yearend 1981. As discussed extensively in previous annual reports (particularly for fiscal 1976), which we urge shareholders to review, accounting for trading stamp redemption liability (which involves estimating the number of stamps that will ultimately be redeemed and the cost per stamp) is a difficult process under any circumstances, but particularly so in an inflationary economy and when stamp issuances decline by a large percentage. We periodically revise our estimated future redemption liability as conditions warrant. In 1982 we made revisions increasing operating income as above described, as explained in detail in Note 2 to our accompanying financial statements. Recent changes, including that in 1982, both decreased our estimates of stamps ultimately to be redeemed and increased our estimates of total redemption costs per stamp. Merchandise cost per stamp redeemed has remained relatively constant as volume has declined, and we hope this state of affairs will continue. Non-merchandise or redemption service cost per stamp redeemed is another story. Such cost per stamp is now virtually certain to go up sharply from last year's level as stamps redeemed in the future share store and warehouse operating expense which cannot be reduced at the same rate as redemptions. The 1982 changes take all the foregoing into account. A higher proportion of non-merchandise costs in our redemption liability has an unfortunate income-tax effect, diminishing true "float" per dollar of book liability. The cash available to us for use from aggregate redemption liability as reported in our books is always considerably lower than the amount of liability shown. One cause is U. S. Treasury regulations (which we have conformed to despite doubting their legality) which do not allow us to deduct for income-tax purposes future redemption service cost (for instance, store operating expense) as distinguished from future merchandise cost. Both types of cost are unavoidable and require accrual of real liabilities in our audited financial statements. The cash-use consequences of the divergence (all of which is not caused by the U. S. Treasury regulation cited above) of IRS-specified income-tax accounting and our audited accounting are substantial. For instance, out of our total trading stamp redemption liability as we report it of $60,240,000 at yearend 1982, we must leave $17,175,000 in a non-interest-bearing deposit with the U. S. Treasury, designated "prepaid income taxes" in our balance sheet. We remain convinced that trading stamps are an effective point-of-purchase sales promotion device for supermarkets, service stations, bowling alleys and the like. We intend to remain in the trading stamp business. In our related motivation business revenues decreased slightly in 1982 to $1,351,000 from $1,446,000 in 1981. Revenues are expected to increase in 1983. One final item augments our consolidated net operating income. Our share of operating earnings, after deduction of interest and other Wesco general corporate expense, from securities and real estate held by Wesco outside the savings and loan and steel service activities of its subsidiaries, amounted to $2,838,000 in 1982 compared with $2,167,000 in the previous year.

出售公司证券、抵押贷款及重要固定资产的净收益

在我们的总资产中,分布于五个经营业务中的我们持有的公司证券,数量之多可能超出了人们对 1982 年底我们这样规模的合并企业的预期——当时我们报告的合并收入为 2.52 亿美元,合并净资产为 2.18 亿美元(见随附合并财务报表的附注 3)。

这些公司证券的大部分持有,都是因为其所属特定业务的性质所决定的。例如,印花业务持有流动资产,用于最终赎回印花;储蓄与贷款业务持有流动资产,用于偿还储户存款。剩余的证券持有是暂时的,主要存在于西科金融公司,等待处置后提供资金用于收购更多业务。

只有 Mutual Savings(在 1983 年 1 月 1 日之前,法律禁止其持有大部分普通股)持有大量优先股。因此,大部分持有的是普通股。我们报告的经营收入仅包括我们持股的股息(税后)。而且,由于我们持有普通股的公司也有留存收益且未作为股息分配,这一过程最终会提升我们持有股票的市场价值,因此我们也会不定期地实现出售部分持股的资本净收益。

此外,我们的各种业务偶尔会出售重要建筑物、机器或其他固定资产,以适应变化的情况。1982 年没有发生重大的固定资产出售。

我们应占所有类型特殊净收益的总和(税后)在 1982 年为 2310.1 万美元,而 1981 年为 673.1 万美元。1981 年的所有净收益均来自证券出售。1982 年的净收益份额包括来自证券出售的 2504.4 万美元,被 Mutual Savings 出售抵押支持证券的 194.3 万美元净亏损所抵消。1982 年来自证券出售的净收益份额包括 2390.1 万美元,来自我们出售 Pinkerton's, Inc. 的全部持股,该部分将在本信的下一节中讨论。

NET GAINS ON SALES OF CORPORATE SECURITIES, MORTGAGES AND IMPORTANT FIXED ASSETS In our total assets, located among our five operating businesses, we hold considerably more corporate securities than might be expected in a consolidated enterprise of our size at the close of 1982 as we report consolidated revenues of $252 million and consolidated net worth of $218 million (see Note 3 to our accompanying consolidated financial statements). Most of these holdings of corporate securities are held because of the very nature of the particular business in which they are owned. For instance, the trading stamp business owns liquid assets to provide for ultimate redemption of stamps, and the savings and loan business holds liquid assets to provide for repayment of savings account holders. The remaining security holdings exist temporarily, primarily in Wesco Financial Corporation, pending their disposition to provide funds for use in buying additional businesses. Only Mutual Savings, which until January 1, 1983 was barred by law from owning most common stocks, has significant holdings of preferred stocks. Most holdings, therefore, are of common stocks. Our reported operating earnings include only the dividends from our stockholdings, after taxes. And, because the corporations whose common stock we own also have and reinvest earnings not paid out as dividends, a process which ultimately raises market value of the stock we own, we also realize irregularly net capital gains from sales of portions of our holdings. In addition, our various businesses occasionally sell important buildings, machinery or other fixed assets, as such businesses adjust to changing conditions. No significant sale of fixed assets occurred in 1982. Our aggregate share of all types of special net gains combined, after income taxes, was $23,101,000 in 1982 compared with $6,731,000 in 1981. All the 1981 net gain came from the sale of securities. The 1982 share of net gain consisted of $25,044,000 from sale of securities, offset by $1,943,000 in net loss from Mutual Savings' sale of mortgage-backed securities. The 1982 share of net gain from sale of securities included $23,901,000 from disposition of our entire holdings in Pinkerton's, Inc., discussed in the next section of this letter.

平克顿公司

根据 1982 年签订的一份合同,我们于 1983 年初从美国品牌公司获得了我们持有的全部平克顿股份的现金。税后收益 2390.1 万美元已计入我们 1982 年的财务数据。

出售的持股包括占平克顿股权 37% 的无投票权股份,平克顿长期以来一直是全国领先的安保及调查服务公司。

我们持有这种无投票权权益表明,在综合考虑所有因素时,我们往往更愿意购买我们无法或不愿行使投票权的股票,而非绝对控制权。我们认为,当企业管理者的资本运用决策库包含那些不会增加其可发号施令人数的商业权益购买时,资本使用决策的合理性会得到改善。然而,我们普遍观察到企业管理者对被动投资兴趣不高,即使这些投资的价格/市盈率和价格/账面价值比率远优于控股头寸。对控股头寸的强烈偏好通常被以下理由所辩护:(1)预期通过控制权变更带来的改进,基于对企业投资者管理层商业技能的高度评价,相较于被投资企业管理层;(2)对被投资企业管理层——若可独立行事——能否做出最符合终极股东利益决策的低评价。我们的观点不同,尽管我们始终预计将主要精力集中于运营企业,但我们出于以下原因对被动头寸也有着不同寻常的兴趣:

  1. 我们知道我们的商业技能往往远逊于他人,这一点可以从比较数据和反映重大错误的经审计记录中得到证明;
  2. 我们相信,即使股东没有实际权力控制或更换管理层,许多企业管理者也可以被信任去服务于股东利益;
  3. 我们认为,因缺乏控制权而以非溢价价格买入的优势,往往能抵消因缺乏控制权可能带来的劣势(如果有的话);
  4. 我们的合并企业包括那些因其性质而必须持有大量被动投资的运营业务。

我们希望能够因在商业中持有“无投票权合伙”权益这种不同寻常的意愿而更为人所知,并吸引更多像我们当初获得平克顿持股那样的投资机会。而且,根据我们持有无投票权头寸六年来的观察,我们确信,即使我们购买了投票控制权,平克顿的管理或合并也不会有一丝一毫的改善,或更符合股东利益。

只有我们从平克顿收到的股息包含在我们报告的营业收入中。这些股息近年来定期增加,构成了上述“促销服务业务及其他营业收入来源”项下报告收入的一部分。其中,由平克顿股息产生的部分,1982 年为 20.11 万美元,1981 年为 17.3 万美元。

当然,未来将不再有来自平克顿股息的营业收入,只有来自处置平克顿持股所得税后收益 4726.5 万美元再投资产生的收入。我们持有无投票权平克顿股票的年均复合税后回报率为 15%,既包含了多年来的股息效应,也包含了最终的大额资本利得(该利得已列入前述 1982 年收入“出售公司证券、抵押贷款及重要固定资产的净收益”项下)。

PINKERTON'S, INC. Pursuant to a contract made in 1982 we received cash from American Brands early in 1983 for our entire Pinkerton's holding. The after-tax gain of $23,901,000 is included in our 1982 financial figures. The holding sold consisted of non-voting stock representing 37% of the equity in Pinkerton's, long the leading national security and investigation service company. Our ownership of this non-voting interest demonstrates that, when all factors are considered, we often would rather buy stock we can't or won't vote than absolute control. We think the rationality of use-of-capital decisions is improved when the repertoire of a corporate manager includes purchases of business interests which do not augment the number of people to whom the manager can give orders. However, we have generally observed a low interest among corporate managers in passive investments, even when available at much better price/earnings and price/book value ratios than controlling positions. The strong preference for controlling positions is ordinarily justified by (1) expected improvements from a change in control based on a high appraisal of the business skills of the managers of the corporate investor compared to the managers of the corporate investee and (2) a low appraisal of the likelihood that the managers of the corporate investee, if free to act independently, will make decisions which best serve the interests of ultimate shareholders. Our view is different, and, although we have always expected to concentrate our activities primarily in operating businesses, we also have an uncommon interest in passive positions for the following reasons: 1. We know that our business skills are frequently inferior by a wide margin to those of others, as we can prove from comparative figures and our audited record reflecting gross errors; 2. We believe that many corporate managers can be trusted to serve the shareholders' interests even when the shareholders have no practical power to control or replace management; 3. We think the advantage of buying at a non-premium price, because control is absent, often counterbalances the disadvantage, if any, from lack of control; 4. Our consolidated enterprise includes operating businesses required by their nature to own significant passive investments. We hope to become better known for an uncommon willingness to own "nonvoting-partnership" interests in businesses and to attract other offerings like that which produced our Pinkerton's holding. And we are sure, based on six years' observation from our non-voting position, that Pinkerton's wouldn't have been managed or merged one whit better or one whit more in its shareholders' interests if we had purchased voting control. Only the dividends we have received from Pinkerton's are included in our reported operating income. These dividends were increased regularly in recent years, creating part of the income reported above under the heading: "Promotional Services Business and Miscellaneous Sources of Operating Income." The part created by Pinkerton's dividends was $2,011,000 in 1982 and $1,730,000 in 1981. There will, of course, be no future operating income from Pinkerton's dividends, only income from reinvesting the $47,265,000 after-tax proceeds of disposition of the Pinker-ton's holding. Our average compounded, after-tax return from owning non-voting Pinker-ton's stock was 15% per year, merging the effects of both dividends over the years and the final large capital gain included in the portion of our 1982 income listed above under the heading "Net Gains on Sales of Corporate Securities, Mortgages and Important Fixed Assets."

合并资产负债表及其他数据

我们的合并资产负债表保持着与公司实力相称的稳健——毕竟,合并后的净资产支撑着对外界作出的巨额承诺。如附注 3 所述,截至 1982 年 12 月 25 日,我们持有的有价证券的总市值高于其总成本。此外,西科金融公司拥有的一栋办公楼及相关房地产,其市场价值也大幅超过账面价值。在总负债与净资产及总流动资产的对比关系上,我们依然处于审慎状态。维持因稳健的资产负债表而获得的无可挑剔的银行信用,对我们来说一直至关重要。加上我们习惯在具体资金需求之前就进行一定数量的长期借款,这种无可挑剔的信用让我们在面对风险和机遇时都能拥有最大的财务灵活性。紧随本函之后的是“主要业务”、“选定的财务数据”以及“管理层讨论与分析”等章节。我们恳请您仔细审阅这些内容以及经审计的财务报表。

CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET AND OTHER DATA Our consolidated balance sheet retains a strength befitting a company whose consolidated net worth supports large outstanding promises to others. As explained in Note 3 to the accompanying financial statements, the aggregate market value of our marketable securities was higher than their aggregate cost at December 25, 1982. In addition, an office building and related real estate owned by Wesco Financial Corporation has a market value substantially in excess of carrying value. We remain in a prudent position when total debt is compared to total net worth and total liquid assets. Retaining the impeccable bank credit facilitated by a prudent balance sheet position has always been very important to us. When combined with our practice of doing a certain amount of long-term borrowing in advance of specific need, impeccable credit has given us maximum financial flexibility to face both hazards and opportunities. Sections entitled "Principal Business Activities," "Selected Financial Data" and "Management's Discussion and Analysis" are presented immediately following this letter. We invite your careful attention to these items and to our audited financial statements.

回顾与展望

1970 年代之初,我们只有一家交易印花业务,注定要从鼎盛规模萎缩至微末;同时还有一批有价证券组合,用于抵销印花赎回负债,这些证券由前任所有者挑选,若持有至今,结果将是灾难性的。(例如,该组合中包含了大量信用评级不断下降的发行人所发行的超长期、低票面市政债券。)

1980 年代之初,我们从一家业务变成了五家。按收购顺序排列,它们是:(1)交易印花及其他促销服务业务,(2)喜诗糖果公司,(3)共同储蓄,(4)《布法罗晚报》,(5)精密钢铁公司。

我们的五家业务公司之间,有比粗心观察者可能注意到的更多共同点:

  1. 它们都是一流的企业,在很大程度上浸润着本杰明·富兰克林的商业理念,由一流的人才运营,长期秉承注重可靠和高效服务的传统;
  2. 当经营正常时,每家公司通常都会产生大量现金,这些现金不需要强制再投资于同一业务,因此可用于收购新业务或偿还债务。

随着通胀持续,第二个共同点的分量逐年加重。许多企业,在低通胀时期曾是好的投资标的,但在通胀环境下,即使实物产出不变,也几乎无法产生多少现金。任何这样的企业,在实物产出不变时总是现金匮乏,即便报告的利润看似令人满意,除非有某些特殊因素,否则对于理性的收购方来说,都是非常可疑的候选对象。

1973 年 3 月 3 日,我们的资产负债表净资产约为 5300 万美元。到 1982 年底,资产负债表净资产增长至约 2.18 亿美元,十年间增长 311%,期间还支付了常规股息。1973 年 3 月 3 日,我们有价证券的权益合计比资产负债表成本高出约 400 万美元。到 1982 年底,这一权益比资产负债表成本高出约 2700 万美元。在截至 1982 年 12 月 25 日的十年间,我们股东投资所获得的年均总回报率约为每年 16.7%,这还未计入(1)有价证券权益中未实现增值从 400 万美元增至 2700 万美元的部分,或(2)喜诗糖果和《布法罗晚报》等子公司的未实现净增值部分。考虑到我们初始交易印花业务所面临的逆风,在温和的通胀环境下,这个百分比的回报是可以接受的。

在刚刚过去的 1982 年,我们股东年初投资的总回报率约为 27%。这一数字每年都会波动,取决于多种因素,包括已实现资本利得金额的变化。任何一个年度的回报率数字都不太重要,尽管多年期的平均数字以及该平均数字的趋势至关重要。

未来,我们希望能在股东投资上获得更高的平均年度总回报率(尽管会剧烈波动)——至少在一段时间内如此,直到我们被某种均值回归法则拖垮,这是任何留存高比例收益的公司都终将面临的结果。一些短期前景是有利的,例如,《布法罗晚报》有望在 1983 年实现盈利,而 1982 年是亏损的。此外,我们预期会不时收购额外的业务,这些业务最终产生的回报将高于为购买它们而出售的资产所创造的回报。

然而,即使未来很长一段时间内股东权益的回报率都高于平均水平(这远非确定之事),我们股东的通胀问题也不会自动解决。正如我们年复一年指出的:“如果通胀率是 16%,或者甚至 11%——当我们同时考虑到所有者必须为维持其购买力而报告应税‘利润’时——那么 16% 的净资产收益率显然无法为股东带来多少实际收益。”

A LOOK BACK AND A LOOK AHEAD We began the 1970s with a single business, trading stamps, which was destined to decline to a small fraction of its former size, and a portfolio of securities, offsetting stamp redemption liability, which had been selected by previous owners and would have led to a disastrous result if held through to the present time. (The portfolio, for instance, contained a substantial amount of very-long-term, low-coupon municipal bonds of issuers with declining credit ratings.) We began the 1980s with five constituent businesses instead of one. In order of acquisition they are: (1) trading stamps and other promotional services, (2) See's Candy Shops, Incorporated, (3) Mutual Savings, (4) Buffalo Evening News, and (5) Precision Steel. Our five constituent businesses have more in common than might be noted by a casual observer: 1. They are all high-grade operations suffused to a considerable extent with the business ideas of Benjamin Franklin, manned by high-grade people operating within a long tradition emphasizing reliable and effective service, and 2. When functioning properly each business will usually generate substantial amounts of cash not claimed by compulsory reinvestment in the same business and therefore available for purchases of new businesses or debt repayment. The second of these two common characteristics gets more important every year as inflation continues. Many businesses, once good investments when inflation was low, are now, under inflationary conditions, unable to produce much, if any, cash even when physical volume is constant. Any such business, always cash-starved at constant physical volume, even while reporting apparently satisfactory profits, is a very dubious candidate, absent some special factor, for acquisition by a rational acquirer. Our balance sheet net worth at March 3, 1973 was about $53 million. By the end of 1982 our balance sheet net worth had increased to approximately $218 million, up 311% in ten years, after payment of regular dividends. At March 3, 1973 our equity in aggregate securities was worth about $4 million more than balance sheet cost. At the end of 1982 this equity was worth about $27 million more than balance sheet cost. Our average annual total percentage return earned on shareholders' investment over the ten years ending December 25, 1982 was approximately 16.7% per annum, without taking into account (1) the increase from $4 million to $27 million in unrealized appreciation in our equity in marketable securities or (2) unrealized net appreciation in such subsidiaries as See's and the Buffalo Evening News. The percentage return earned was acceptable in a moderate inflation environment, considering the headwinds in our initial trading stamp business. In 1982, the year just ended, our total percentage return on the beginning investment of our shareholders was approximately 27%. This percentage return fluctuates from year to year depending upon various factors including changes in amounts of capital gains realized. The percentage return figure for any one year is not very significant, although the average figure over a period of years, and the trend in such average figure, are of vital importance. In the future we hope to earn a higher average (though sharply fluctuating) annual total percentage return on shareholders' investment — at least for a while until we are dragged down by some law of regression toward mean results, an outcome sure to occur eventually at any corporation which retains a high proportion of its earnings. Some short-term prospects are favorable, for instance, the prospect that the Buffalo Evening News will have earnings in 1983, compared to a loss in 1982. Furthermore, we expect from time to time to acquire additional businesses which eventually will produce higher returns than the assets disposed of to fund their purchase. However, even if above-average returns on shareholders' equity are earned for a long time in the future — far from a sure thing — the inflation problem for our shareholders will not automatically be solved. As we point out year after year, "A 16% return on equity obviously won't do much in real terms for shareholders if the inflation rate is 16%, or even 11% when we also allow for income taxes imposed on owners who must report taxable 'profits' while only maintaining their position on the purchasing-power treadmill."

通货膨胀是一种针对普通股持有资本的非常有效的间接税形式。我们不知道有什么普遍适用于希望保护股东利益的企业管理者的充分对策,来应对这种间接税。但即便如此,我们认为养成一种始终思考并努力以实际价值服务股东利益的习惯,而不是以牺牲股东实际利益为代价、合理化被管理者控制的资产增长,是非常有用且完全可被要求于企业管理层的事情。我们非常自觉地努力保持并强化这一习惯,虽然偶尔也可能无意间出现疏忽。

举个例子,由通胀导致的低股价以及我们对股东实际利益的专注,加剧了我们对绝大多数发行新普通股建议的抵制。长期以来,我们出于任何原因都没有发行过新股。除了极少数例外,美国公司现在发行新股时,其获得的内在价值通常低于所付出的内在价值。我们的公司也不例外。很明显,一家公司无法通过发行新股稀释每股股票所代表的内在价值来增进自身股东的长远利益。我们不愿接受任何此类稀释,这就是我们长期保持普通股资本结构不变的原因。

即使当前严重的经济衰退对通胀有所抑制,我们认为美国以及其他现代民主国家未来通胀的可能性仍然很高。从某种意义上说,当前的经济衰退通过表明一个有良知的企业管理者不仅要对通胀做好防范,还要对严重的经济衰退做好防范,从而使通胀问题变得更加复杂——考虑到其中涉及的内在矛盾,这并非一项简单的任务。

当前的环境只会强化我们长期以来的信念,即:(1)管理层对业务现金生成能力的重视;(2)管理层不愿发行新股;(3)稳健的资产负债表状况——所有这些在未来几年都很可能作为证券投资者挑选股票时应重点关注的品质而获得更多认可。

这很可能是我们的股东收到的最后一份蓝筹印花公司作为独立公司发布的年报,因为一项将我们公司与伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司(长期持有蓝筹印花 59.6% 股份)合并的提案正在推进中。如果合并成功,我们的股东将成为伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司普通股的持有人。我们在此不再进一步讨论合并的可能性,因为此类讨论将包含在正式的合并提案和委托书中,如果该提案获得两家公司董事会的批准,蓝筹印花的股东将在适当时候收到这些文件。

此致

敬礼

查尔斯·T·芒格,董事会主席

唐纳德·A·霍佩尔,总裁

1983 年 2 月 17 日

Inflation is a very effective form of indirect taxation on capital represented by holdings of common stock. We know of no adequate countermeasure, generally available to corporate managers who wish to protect shareholders, to this form of indirect taxation. But, even so, we think a habit of always thinking about and trying to serve shareholders' interests in real terms, instead of rationalizing growth of managed assets regardless of real effects on shareholders, is quite useful and may fairly be expected of corporate managements. We make a very conscious effort, perhaps with occasional inadvertent lapses, to have and reinforce this habit. For one example, low stock prices, caused by inflation, together with our preoccupation with real shareholder interests, have intensified our resistance to most proposals that we issue new common stock. We haven't issued a new share, for any reason, for a long time. With rare exceptions American corporations now cannot get as much intrinsic value as they give when new common stock is issued. Our corporation is no exception. And, quite clearly, a corporation can't further its own shareholders' long-term interests by diluting, through new stock issuances, the intrinsic value underlying each outstanding share. Our unwillingness to accept any such dilution explains our long-unchanged common stock capitalization. Even in the presence of the moderation in inflation caused by the current severe recession, we think the likelihood of future inflation remains high in the United States, as well as in other modern democracies. In a sense the current recession has compounded the inflation problem by demonstrating that a conscientious corporate manager must take precautions not only against inflation but also against severe slump — no small order, considering the inherent contradictions involved. Current conditions have only intensified our long-standing belief that a (1) heavy managerial emphasis on the cashgenerating characteristics of businesses, (2) managerial reluctance to issue new stock and (3) strong balance sheet position are all likely to enjoy increased recognition in future years as qualities to be emphasized by selectors of common stocks for investment. This may well be the last annual report our shareholders will ever receive from Blue Chip Stamps as a separate corporation, because work is in progress on a proposal that our corporation be merged with Berkshire Hathaway Inc., long a 59.6%-owner of Blue Chip Stamps. If such a merger occurs, our shareholders will become holders of common shares of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. We will not here further discuss merger possibilities, because such discussion will be contained in a formal merger proposal and proxy statement, which Blue Chip shareholders will receive in due course if such a proposal is approved by the board of directors of each corporation. Cordially yours, Charles T. Munger, Chairman of the Board Donald A. Hoeppel, President February 17, 1983