每日新闻集团2023年股东大会——查理·芒格问答
每日邮报公司股东/分析师电话会议
2023 年 2 月 15 日
史蒂文·迈希尔-琼斯
好的。女士们先生们,会议现在开始。大家好。我是史蒂文·迈希尔-琼斯,自 2022 年 3 月底起担任每日邮报公司的新任董事长兼临时首席执行官。今天,我在洛杉矶总部与一位无需介绍的人物同台,那就是传奇的查尔斯·T·芒格先生,他在去年之前担任了每日邮报公司数十年的董事长。
我很感激查理(他仍是我们董事会的董事)今天同意加入我们。我还要感谢并表达我们的感激之情,芒格先生继续管理每日邮报公司相当规模的可交易证券投资组合,而且我还想补充一点,这对公司是免费的。所以,谢谢你,查理。
多年来,这次年度股东大会已成为越来越受欢迎的活动。这是一个独特而精彩的机会,可以聆听芒格先生的讲话并向他提问。我知道这是你们今天许多人加入我们的原因。所以我的目标是尽快完成我们的正式议程,同时听起来不要太像拍卖师。
我还想说,我们真的很想今年恢复面对面的形式,让股东们能亲临现场,并与董事会其他成员玛丽·康林和约翰·弗兰克一起登上舞台。然而,出于健康和安全原因,我们今年再次选择谨慎行事,继续采用疫情期间采用的线上方式。我承认我们都厌倦了新冠疫情,但新冠疫情似乎还没有完全放过我们。
Daily Journal Corporation Shareholder/Analyst Call 2/15/23 Steven Myhill-Jones All right. Ladies and gentlemen, the meeting will come to order. Hello, everyone. I'm Steven Myhill-Jones, the new Chairman and Interim CEO of Daily Journal Corporation as of the end of March 2022. I'm here today at our Los Angeles headquarters with an individual who really needs no introduction, the legendary, Mr. Charles T. Munger, who until last year served as Daily Journal Corporation's Chairman for many decades. I'm grateful that Charlie, who remains a Director on our Board, has agreed to join us today. I also want to acknowledge and express our gratitude that Mr. Munger continues to manage Daily Journal Corporation's considerable portfolio of marketable securities and at no cost of the business, I might add. So thank you, Charlie. Over the years, this annual shareholder meeting has become an increasingly popular event. And it's been a unique and wonderful opportunity to hear from and ask questions with Mr. Munger. I recognize this is why many of you are joining us today. And so my goal is to go through our formal business as quickly as possible without sounding too much like an auctioneer. I also want to say that we really wanted to return to an in-person format this year with an audience of our shareholders actually here with us and with the other members of our Board, Mary Conlin and John Frank joining us on stage. However, for health and safety reasons, we opted to err on the side of caution again this year and do another round of the online approach that we've followed over the pandemic. I recognize we're all done with COVID, but COVID doesn't quite appear done with all of us.
因此,在我将会议交给 CNBC 的贝基·奎克主持问答环节之前,我们现在将进行年度会议的正式议程。米歇尔·斯蒂芬斯,执行副总裁兼本次会议秘书;以及埃伦·爱尔兰,选举监察员。埃伦,请您报告本次会议代表的股份数量好吗?
未知参会者
2022 年 12 月 16 日,董事会为确定今天有权投票的股东而设定的记录日期,公司流通在外的普通股共有 1,377,026 股。我有一份在该日期登记在册的股东名单,由公司的过户代理机构 Equiniti Trust Company 认证。我还有一份宣誓书,证明本次会议通知、委托书和 2022 年年报以及预付邮资的回邮信封已经邮寄给股东。
本次会议以代理投票方式代表的股份总数为 849,758 股,超过公司所有流通普通股投票权的多数,会议可以进行。我将把宣誓书附在本会议记录中,并持有上次年度会议的记录副本。
史蒂文·迈希尔-琼斯
谢谢。公司投票权的多数已由本次会议代表,本次会议已准备好处理业务。作为第一项议程,我们将对第一项提案进行表决,即选举董事会。本次会议将选举四名董事,以下人士已被提名并获得了规定数量的选票,因此当选任职:查尔斯·T·芒格、玛丽·康林、约翰·B·弗兰克、史蒂文·迈希尔-琼斯。选举监察员已统计了选票。
So before I turn things over to Becky Quick of CNBC to moderate the Q&A, we'll now proceed to the formal business of the annual meeting. Michelle Stephens, Executive Vice President and Secretary of this meeting; and [ Ellen Ireland ] is Inspector of Elections. Ellen, will you please report the number of shares represented at this meeting? Unknown Attendee On December 16, 2022, the record date fixed by the Board of Directors for determining the shareholders entitled to vote today, there were 1,377,026 shares of common stock of the corporation outstanding. I have a list of the shareholders who are of record of that date, certified by the corporation's transfer agent, Equiniti Trust Company. I also have an affidavit certifying the completion of the mailing of the notice of this meeting, the proxy card and the 2022 annual report, along with a prepaid postage return envelope to the shareholders. The total number of shares represented by proxy at this meeting is 849,758, which is more than a majority of voting power of all outstanding common stock of the corporation, and the meeting may proceed. I will attach the affidavits to the minutes of this meeting and have a copy of the minutes of the last annual meeting. Steven Myhill-Jones Thank you. A majority of the voting power of the corporation is represented at this meeting, and this meeting is ready for the transaction of business. As the first order of business, we will act upon the first proposal, which is the election of Board of Directors. Four directors are to be elected at this meeting, and the following people have been nominated and received a number of votes and are thus elected to serve: Charles T. Munger, Mary Conlin, John B. Frank, Steven Myhill-Jones. The inspector of elections has tabulated the vote.
未知参会者
提名人获得了以下数量的选票:查尔斯·T·芒格,428,537 票;玛丽·康林,516,625 票;约翰·B·弗兰克,573,419 票;史蒂文·迈希尔-琼斯,543,229 票。
史蒂文·迈希尔-琼斯
由于每位提名人都获得了当选董事所需的票数,我宣布他们均已当选董事,任期至下一年,直至其继任者当选并具备资格。
第二项提案是批准选定的独立注册公共会计师事务所。审计委员会和董事会已选定 Baker Tilly US, LLP 担任本财年的审计事务所。此项批准需要获得本次会议所代表股份的多数投票。选举监察员已统计了选票:赞成,846,716 票;反对,1,097 票;弃权,1,945 票。特此宣布第二项提案已获本次会议批准。
第三项提案涉及关于高管薪酬的咨询意见。我们的首席财务官涂拓和我是公司仅有的两位高管,我们的薪酬已在委托书中说明。此项批准需要获得本次会议所列代表股份的多数投票。选举监察员已统计了选票,投票结果如下:赞成,608,903 票;反对,1,296 票;弃权,3,005 票。特此宣布第三项提案已获本次会议批准。
第四项提案涉及关于批准高管薪酬咨询投票频率的咨询意见。获得最高票数的 1 年、2 年或 3 年选项,将被确定为股东选择的高管薪酬咨询投票频率。选举监察员已统计了选票,投票结果如下:1 年,185,735 票;2 年,4,281 票;3 年,416,321 票。因此,股东选择每 3 年举行一次高管薪酬投票。
由于没有其他需要提交会议审议的事务,本次会议休会。
我们现在将再次进入问答环节,由 CNBC 的贝基·奎克担任主持人。贝基,提前感谢你。我知道大多数问题都是针对查理的,如果是专门关于每日邮报公司或 Journal Technologies 的问题,我可能会偶尔回答。谢谢大家。交给你了,贝基。
丽贝卡·奎克
史蒂文,非常感谢你,欢迎大家。我们收到了大量问题,我尽量整理了我能处理的部分。我们会在会议期间尽可能多地回答这些问题。但首先,查理,感谢你今天抽出时间。
我们收到的第一个问题来自瑞安·富萨罗,他的问题涉及 Journal Technologies。他说:“你能介绍一下公司新任首席执行官史蒂文·迈希尔-琼斯的最新情况吗?他大约在 1 年前被任命为临时首席执行官。他的表现如何?何时会决定任命正式的首席执行官?”
查尔斯·芒格
嗯,答案是史蒂夫进来时自己选了头衔,我们随时可以按他想要的方式更改。怎么样?
丽贝卡·奎克
这听起来很公平。
Unknown Attendee The nominees have received the following number of votes: Charles T. Munger, 428,537; Mary Conlin, 516,625; John B. Frank, 573,419; Steven Myhill-Jones, 543,229. Steven Myhill-Jones Since each of the nominees has received the number of votes required for his or her election as director, I declare that each has been elected director to serve for the next year until his or her successor has been elected and qualified. The second proposal is the ratification of the selection of the independent registered public accounting firm. The Audit Committee and the Board of Directors have selected Baker Tilly US, LLP for this fiscal year. And the ratification requires a vote of the majority of the shares represented at this meeting. The Inspector of Elections has tabulated the vote: for, 846,716; against, 1,097; abstain, 1,945. Proposal 2 is hereby declared approved by this meeting. The third proposal concerns the advisory note on executive compensation. Tu To, our CFO, and I are the only executive officers of the company, and our compensation is described in the proxy statement. The approval requires a vote of the majority of the shares listed -- represented at this meeting. The Inspector of Elections has tabulated the vote, and the following votes have been cast: for, 608,903; against, 1,296; abstain, 3,005. Proposal 3 is hereby declared approved by this meeting. The fourth proposal concerns the advisory note on the frequency of the advisory vote on approval of executive compensation. The option of 1 year, 2 years or 3 years that receives the highest number of votes cast will be the frequency for the advisory vote on executive compensation selected by the shareholders. The Inspector of Elections has tabulated the vote, and the following votes have been cast: 1 year, 185,735; 2 years, 4,281; 3 years, 416,321. Accordingly, the stockholders have elected to hold the vote on executive compensation once every 3 years. Since there is not any further business to be brought before the meeting, the meeting is adjourned. We'll now transition to the Q&A once again with Becky Quick of CNBC serving as our moderator. Thank you in advance, Becky. I recognize most questions will be for Charlie, and I'll likely answer the occasional question if it's specifically about Daily Journal or Journal Technologies. Thanks, everyone. Over to you, Becky. Rebecca Quick Steven, thank you very much, and welcome, everyone. We got a great number of questions that came in, and I've tried to sort through as many as I could. We'll go through as many of these questions as we can during the session. But first of all, Charlie, thank you for taking the time today. The first question that we have comes from [ Ryan Fusaro ], and his question is related to Journal Technologies. He says, "Can you give an update on the company's new CEO, Steven Myhill-Jones? He was appointed as interim CEO nearly 1 year ago. How is he performing? And when will the decision be made on selecting a permanent CEO?" Charles Munger Well, the answer is Steve chose his own titles coming in and we'll change whenever he wants to change it. How's that? Rebecca Quick That sounds fair enough.
史蒂文·迈希尔-琼斯
是的。不是。
丽贝卡·奎克
史蒂文?
史蒂文·迈希尔-琼斯
是的,我想说的是,一年前我们讨论时,我告诉查理,我致力于确保公司的成功,但我不确定自己是否是合适的长期首席执行官。当时我掌握的信息不完整,我认为拥有灵活性是很重要的,可以聘请更合适的人选,或者如果我们发现内部有更好的路径就从内部提拔。
我创立并帮助发展了一家地理软件公司,但在出版或法律和法庭领域没有背景。我现在可以说的是,我创立的软件公司与 Journal Technologies 之间有着惊人的相似之处。我相信我能增加价值。我喜欢这项业务及其潜力。所以我预计在今年晚些时候,我们会在长期规划上获得很多清晰度。
丽贝卡·奎克
好的,史蒂文,谢谢你。第二个问题来了,是关于资本配置的。这个问题来自密歇根州林伍德的保罗·法姆。在过去的一年里——你过去曾描述过每日邮报公司独特的地位:一家在过去能产生足够多余现金来投资股票投资组合的报纸。现在其增长最快的子公司 Journal Technologies 占了公司盈利的很大一部分。科技业务是否是一个自然的地盘,可以将多余资本配置到那里,以为公司获得最佳的净资产收益率?
Steven Myhill-Jones Yes. No. Rebecca Quick Steven? Steven Myhill-Jones Yes, I'll say that when we were in discussions a year ago, I told Charlie that I was committed to ensure the success of the business, but that I wasn't sure I would be the right long-term CEO. And I had incomplete information at that time, and I thought it was important that I have the optionality to hire someone better suited or promote from within if we discover that be a better path. And I founded and helped grow a geography software company with no background in publishing or the legal and court sector. And what I can say now is that the parallels between the software company I built in and Journal Technologies are remarkable. And I believe I can add value. I like the business and the potential for it. So I expect a lot of clarity on our long-term approach sometime later this year. Rebecca Quick Okay. Steven, thank you. The second question comes in, and it's in regards to capital allocation. This is from Paul in Linwood, Michigan, [ Paul Fam ]. In the past year, you've -- in the past, you've described Daily Journal's unique position of being a newspaper, which generated enough excess cash in the past to invest in an equity portfolio. Now its fastest-growing subsidiary, Journal Technologies accounts for a large part of the company's earnings. Is the technology business a natural area to allocate excess capital for the best return on equity for the company?
查尔斯·芒格
听不到声音了。
贝基·奎克
哦,你能听到我吗,查理?我会继续说下去。
查尔斯·芒格
我听不到你。
贝基·奎克
1、2、3、4、5。我测试一下。也许你们可以给我放一段——我不知道现场有没有那种“上帝之音”能播放到台下,但我会继续说,希望查理能听到。查理,等你能听到的时候告诉我。
这又是一个问题。听起来他们听不到,各位。我不知道控制室里有没有人知道怎么回事。
再次说明,这是《每日新闻》股东年会。我们收到了很多给查理·芒格的问题,一旦音频修复,我们就尽快开始提问。听起来……
史蒂文·麦希尔-琼斯
贝基,我们能听到你的声音——有人拿了一台平板过来,暂时我们能通过平板听到你。
贝基·奎克
好的,史蒂文,谢谢。查理,我简单收个尾。我不知道断在哪里了,但这来自保罗·法姆(Paul Fam)。他问的是资本配置。他只是想知道,科技业务是不是一个自然的领域,可以用来配置多余的资本,为公司获得最佳的净资产收益率。我们该如何思考,或者说现在的投资经理如何考虑投资股票组合,与再投资于业务的增长领域或回购之间的关系?
查尔斯·芒格
嗯,这一切都很简单。我们在出版业务的鼎盛时期赚了很多额外收入,大约 3000 万美元。那都是在止赎热潮中赚到的。当然,在过去,我们通过每日在新闻纸上发布上诉法院的判决,拥有信息垄断权。互联网出现后,摧毁了我们的地位。我们的发行量大幅下降,等等。
所以,我们出版业务的财运发生了剧变。史蒂夫实际上在加拿大经营一家小型软件公司很多很多年,这和 Journal Technologies 做的非常相似。所以我们就这样走到了一起。
这项业务的未来不在出版方面,而在 Journal Technologies 方面。好消息是我们面对的是一个巨大的市场,因为世界上所有的法院在利用现代技术进行自动化方面,仍然处于石器时代。所以这是一个大市场。
坏消息是这是一个漫长而缓慢的艰苦工作,你需要应对所有官僚机构,回应征求建议书(RFP)。这是一个非常缓慢、艰难的业务。所以,我们正在一个拥有一个强大竞争对手、但不会消失的巨大市场中缓慢而艰难地啃食。
这就是未来。就像许多使用新闻纸的出版公司一样,任何一家能生存下来都是奇迹。如果你查看《价值线》的小盘和中盘股部分,会发现只剩下两家公司。一家是甘尼特(Gannett),它曾经拥有垄断性的报纸,我不知道,在 50、60 或 100 个不同的城市。高管们出行乘坐自己的私人飞机,去参加出版商大会时被当做英国贵族一样对待。
每一位报纸出版商在自己的社区里都权势巨大。所以,所有这些出版商都像英国贵族。而现在强大的甘尼特只是它自己的苍白影子。报纸缩减成很少、非常有限的资产等等。
所以,在普通报纸的新闻纸出版方面,技术和竞争结果发生了令人难以置信的变化。总的来说,稳妥的规律是,它们都在消亡,只是处于不同的濒死状态。所以,如果这个地方有未来,那就在 Journal Technologies 那边。那将是一场漫长、缓慢的苦战。我们拥有如此多可交易证券的唯一原因是,我们有额外的资金,在通货膨胀的世界里,我们宁愿持有可交易证券而不是现金。而且——当然,我们能拥有如此多的可交易证券,本身算是一个小小的奇迹,因为我们的投资表现一直优于平均水平。
贝基·奎克
接着问一句……
查尔斯·芒格
所以好消息是我们目前幸存下来了,而且还有一些富余的财富。坏消息是前方是一条漫长、缓慢的艰苦道路,主要的未来在于 Journal Technologies。
贝基·奎克
接着这个问题,还有一个相关的问题。它来自北爱尔兰的加雷斯·摩尔(Gareth Moore),也许你们俩都能评论一下。他说,考虑到由于复杂性、风险和官僚主义,以及软件创新的快速变化世界,将法院系统数字化需要很长时间,股东如何能确信 Journal Technologies 的解决方案能保持足够长时间的前沿性,以回报股东?你又如何看待这种风险:到了 2030 年,你拥有一个出色的软件业务,但它只持续了几年就被某种新技术颠覆了?
史蒂文·麦希尔-琼斯
当然,我的意思是……
查尔斯·芒格
史蒂夫,你来回答。
史蒂文·麦希尔-琼斯
好的。当然,没有什么是确定的。与此同时,我确实有一些应对这个挑战的背景经验,因为我在之前的公司做了 19 年。我们赚取了持续而可观的利润,而且我相信这个模式对于收购我们的人来说仍然运作良好。
我认为一个关键责任是让技术变革为我们和我们的客户服务,而不是与我们作对。这需要先进的规划和投入,来设计能够随时间变化的软件。所以它天生就具备可升级性。
我认为这个模式非常有效,前提是你能够建立一个足够大的许可用户基础,来支持这种主动研发,以管理技术变革的方式改进产品——而且还需要高度可重复。我认为所有这些都需要一种思维方式:企业软件开发是一个持续的过程,而不是一次性事件,客户部署也是如此。
贝基·奎克
Charles Munger The sound has gone off. Rebecca Quick Oh, can you hear me, Charlie? I'll keep talking. Charles Munger I can't hear you. Rebecca Quick 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. I'll test this out. Maybe you guys can play me -- I don't know if there's a Voice of God you could play to the floor there, but I'll keep talking on the hopes that Charlie can pick up on this. And Charlie, just let me know when you do hear this. This is a question, again. It sounds like they're not hearing, folks. I don't know in the control room if you guys have any ideas about what's happening. Again, this is the Annual Meeting for the Daily Journal Shareholders Meeting. We have a lot of questions that have come in for Charlie Munger, and we're going to be getting to those questions as soon as we can get the audio fixed for this. Sounds like... Steven Myhill-Jones Becky, we can hear you over -- someone's brought a tablet over, and we can hear you over the tablet for the time being. Rebecca Quick Okay. Steven, thank you. Charlie, I'll just wrap up. I don't know where this got cut off, but this is from [ Paul Fam ]. He was asking about capital allocation. And he's just wondering if the technology business is a natural area to allocate excess capital for the best return on equity for the company. How should we think about or how does the current investment manager think about investing in the equity portfolio in relation to reinvesting in growing areas of the business or share buybacks? Charles Munger Well, it's all very simple. We made a lot of extra money out of the publishing business in its heyday, and that was about $30 million. And that was all made in the foreclosure boom. And of course, in the old days, we had information monopoly on publishing the appellate court's decisions daily in newsprint. And the Internet came along and destroyed our position. Our circulation went way down and so forth. So we've had a drastic change in good fortune in our publishing business. And Steve actually ran a small software company in Canada for years and years and years, which is quite similar to what Journal Technologies does. And so that's how we got together. The future of this business is not in the publishing side, it's on the Journal Technologies side. And the good news is that we're a huge market because all the courts of the world are in the Stone Age still in terms of automating with modern technology. And so it's a big market. The bad news is it's a long, slow slog where you deal with all of the bureaucracies in response to RFPs or request for proposals. And it's just a very slow, difficult business. So we got a slow, difficult business of chewing our way into a huge market that's not going away with one big competitor in it. And that's the future. And like many publishing company, which used newsprint, it's a miracle when any survive. If you look in the small and midcap addition of the value line books, you'll find there are 2 entries left. One is Gannett, which used to own the monopoly newspaper, I don't know, 50, 60, or 100 different cities. And the executive used to ride their own jet airplanes and be treated like lords of England when they went to publishers' convention. And every newspaper publisher was a hugely powerful in this own community. And so they're like the lords of England, all these publishers. And now mighty Gannett is just a pale shadow of itself. Newspapers shrunk down to a tiny little few and very limited assets and so forth. So there's been an unbelievable change in the technology and competitive outcomes in publishing ordinary newspapers on newsprint. And by and large, the safe rule is they're all dying just in different states of near death. And so if this place has a future, it's in the Journal Technologies side. And that's a long, slow grind. And the only reason we have a lot of marketable securities is we have the extra money, and we preferred the marketable securities to cash in an inflationary world. And so -- and of course, there's been a minor miracle that we've got as much as we have in marketable securities because our investments have done better than average. Rebecca Quick As a follow-up... Charles Munger So the good news is we survived so far, and we've got some surplus wealth. And the bad news, it's a long, slow slog ahead, and the main future is in Journal Technologies. Rebecca Quick As a follow-up to that, this is a related question. It comes from [ Gareth Moore ] in Northern Ireland, and maybe you can both comment on this. He says that given the extended amount of time that it will take to digitize the court systems because of complexity, risk and bureaucracy and the fastmoving world of software innovation, how can shareholders be assured that Journal Technologies solution remains cutting-edge long enough to reward shareholders? And how do you think about the risk of arriving in 2030 with a great software business, which only lasts a few years until it gets disrupted by some new technology? Steven Myhill-Jones Sure. I mean... Charles Munger Steve, you take that one. Steven Myhill-Jones Yes. Of course, there are no assurances. And at the same time, I do have some background dealing with this challenge because I did it for 19 years with my former company. And we earn consistent and appealing profits, and I expect the model is still working well for the folks who acquired us. I think a key responsibility is to get technology change working for us and our customers rather than against us. And it takes advanced planning and investment to engineer software with change over time in mind. And so it's inherently upgradable. And I think this model works with great if you can establish a sufficient licensee base to fund that proactive R&D to evolve products in a way that manages technology change so that -- and it also needs to be highly repeatable. And I think all of this requires a mindset that enterprise software development is an ongoing process and not a onetime event and so are customer deployments. Rebecca Quick
好的。接下来我回答另一个问题,来自[ Gage Sanchez ]。Gage 写信问了查理一个问题。两年前,也就是 2021 年股东大会期间,你说 Daily Journal 的 350 美元股价,远高于你愿意为新发行股票支付的价格。到我写这封信时,Daily Journal 的股价是 305 美元,市值 4.2 亿美元。总股票投资组合价值超过 3.1 亿美元,银行的股息能好几倍覆盖债务利息。而 Journal Technologies 在巨大市场中的表外价值,你仍持同样的看法吗?
查理·芒格:嗯,你准确地概括了我们的处境。我们确实有很多剩余财富,但我们必须进攻这个巨大的市场。那些法院,它们凭什么要押注一个没有净资产的小公司呢?这些法院可是在决定 RFP 合同。所以,我们利用自己的净资产来支持业务。
Okay. Let me move on to another question that comes from [ Gage Sanchez ]. Gage writes in with a question for you, Charlie. 2 years ago, during the 2021... Steven Myhill-Jones Yes. Rebecca Quick Yes, let's try that. Steven Myhill-Jones Okay. We can hear now. Rebecca Quick So you've got the speaker there? Okay. So [ Gage Sanchez ] writes in and says, "2 years ago, during the 2021 Annual Meeting, you said Daily Journal's $350 stock was selling way above the price that you would pay for the new shares. As I write this, Daily Journal trades for $305 a share, a $420 million market cap. With a total equity portfolio value of over $310 million, debt charge is covered several times over by the bank's dividends. And Journal Technologies' off financial statement value in huge markets, do you still hold the same belief?" Charles Munger Well, you accurately stated our circumstances. We do have a lot of surplus wealth, but we needed to attack this big market. These courts, why would they gamble on a little company with no net worth, the courts that are letting the RFP contracts. So we're using our net worth to help the business. Rebecca Quick
但这能回答你是否会以 305 美元买入这只股票的问题吗?
查理·芒格:嗯,我没买,也没卖。这就是芒格家族一直以来的做法。你知道吗?
史蒂文·迈希尔-琼斯:我们现在……
查理·芒格:考虑到如今其他东西的售价,这不算一个疯狂的估值。所以我不觉得——几乎愚蠢的是,我有些疯狂的神秘感,有人说,嗯,这是个迷你版伯克希尔,它会像兔子一样翻倍。当然,它不是迷你版伯克希尔。我已经 99 岁了【听不清】。
丽贝卡·奎克:这个问题提到了你们在 DJCO 的那些银行股息。另一个人,“诺曼·伯格曼”写道,“查理,伯克希尔已经清仓了银行股。如果这对伯克希尔股东不够好,那为什么对我们来说就好呢?”
查理·芒格:嗯,我可能有不同的想法。如果你拥有一家在加州的公司里的有价证券,你要支付巨额州和联邦税,而且你卖出时还获得大笔收益。这多少会影响我们卖出的意愿。那些银行股是我在止赎危机的最底部买入的。说真的,就是最底点,它们几乎全是收益。
所以,每当我们卖出那些银行股中的任何一只,我立马就要交给政府 40% 多的税。而且,当然,它们产生的股息几乎是免税的。所以,基于我们卖出能拿到什么和股息带来的回报,对我们来说不算太糟。
答案是——我们处境不一般。综合考虑所有因素,我们愿意持有一段时间。而且,在我们和从加州这类州赚到的任何钱之间,增加一层巨额联邦公司税和州税,是很大的不利因素。加州是一个非常不商业友好的州,我的人都急着跑出来,不在加州注册公司。
有各种没有所得税的州,故意用这个诱饵吸引公司。加州却在试图把它的富人和富公司赶出本州。我必须说,这效果不错。他们正一个接一个地离开。
情况就是这样。但是,如果我们在软件业务上成功,最终一切都会好起来。如果失败,我们还有房地产和证券作为支撑,这意味着我们不会因当前市场价格损失太多。所以,以现在的市场估值持有它,不算疯狂,但也不便宜。
丽贝卡·奎克:好的。好的。下一个问题来自“托马斯·斯莱恩”,他说自己是伯克希尔的长期股东,但最近才成为《每日新闻》的股东。他说,“嗯,我知道《每日新闻》不是迷你版伯克希尔。我怀疑在治理方面,特别是董事会方面,会有一些共同原则。我很惊讶看到持股这么少,5 位董事中有 3 位持有 0 股。第 4 位持有 100 股。”托马斯说,“这相当不起眼。看不出董事和股东之间有多少利益一致。”他说他不是想无礼,但他认为这是个公平的问题。
But does that get at the question of whether you'd buy the stock at $305? Charles Munger Well, I don't buy it, and I don't sell it. So that's what the Mungers have been doing. You know what? Steven Myhill-Jones We now have... Charles Munger It's not a crazy evaluation considering what everything else is selling for these days. So I have no feeling that it's -- almost foolishly I have some crazy mystique, somebody, well, it's a small Berkshire, and it will double like rabbits. And of course, it's not a small Berkshire. I'm 99 years old [indiscernible]. Rebecca Quick That question mentioned the bank dividends that you all have at DJCO. Another person wrote in, [ Norman Bergman ], who asks, "Charlie, Berkshire has unloaded the bank stocks. If it's not good enough for Berkshire shareholders, why is it good for us?" Charles Munger Well, I might have different ideas. If you own securities -- marketable securities within a corporation, located in California, you pay huge state and federal taxes and you sell things at a big gain. And that affects our willingness to sell somewhat. Those bank stocks I bought on the bottom tick in the foreclosure crisis. Literally, it was the bottom tick, and they're practically all gain. So I immediately give the government 40-some-percent, everything we sell out of it -- out of those bank stocks. So -- and of course, they're producing a tax -- the dividends are almost tax free. So based on what we would get if we sold them and the return we're getting out of the dividends, it's not so bad for us. The answer is it's -- we're not in a normal position. All factors considered, we're willing to hold them for a while. And there is a big disadvantage in adding a huge layer of federal corporate taxes and state taxes between us and any money we make in a state like California, which is a very business unfriendly state as my people are rushing to come out and incorporate in California. And there are all kinds of states that have no income taxes and deliberately use that lure to bring in corporations. California is trying to force its wealthy people and its wealthy corporations out of the state. And I must say it's working fine. They're leaving just one after another. And that's just where it is. But if we succeed in the software business, it will all come good in the end. And if we fail, we have a crutch under us in our real estate and our securities, which means we won't lose so much from the present market price. So it's not a crazy thing to own now at the market valuation, but it's not cheap either. Rebecca Quick All right. All right. This next question comes from [ Thomas Slane ], who says he's a longtime Berkshire shareholder but a pretty recent Daily Journal shareholder. He says, "Well, I know that Daily Journal is not a mini Berkshire. I have suspected that there would be some shared principles in the area of governance, specifically regarding the Board of Directors. I'm surprised to see such a small ownership, 3 of the 5 own 0 shares. A fourth owns 100 shares." Thomas says, "Pretty unimpressive. Doesn't suggest much alignment between the Board members and shareholders." He says he's not trying to be rude, but he thinks it's a fair question.
查理·芒格
嗯,事情是这样的,过去我们有加伦和芒格,两人是最大的两个股东。当然,我们多年来一直是合伙人。我们不收任何费用、不拿董事费、不报销任何开支,什么都不拿。所以,那是非常像伯克希尔那种友善友好的地方。
后来,加伦活了九十多岁,最终去世了。现在,老一辈的股东就只剩下我一个了。当然,我们需要一定数量的新董事。我们这些新董事都相当聪明,而且顺便说一句,他们都很富有。所以,这仍然是一个非常像伯克希尔的董事会——既聪明又富有,并且像资本家一样思考——我们仍然——我们拥有这些特质。
史蒂文·迈希尔-琼斯
我想补充一点,虽然我目前还没有股权,但我当然非常渴望参与公司未来的增长。像我这样新加入的人,应该在什么时机获得股权呢?我认为这是个有趣的问题。托马斯,我……
查理·芒格
我们会解决的。
史蒂文·迈希尔-琼斯
是的。目前,我认为这并不影响我的干劲或决策。我已经感到深深的‘利益攸关’,芒格先生和董事会信任我,让我接手公司业务的缰绳,这件事我非常认真对待。
查理·芒格
拥有一堆证券,外加一项在一个非常高科技领域、涉及大量政治、出差和困难的有趣业务,这确实相当有意思。但这是一个巨大、巨大的市场。而且,不像是有很多其他人在做这个。
那些可能成为我们天然竞争对手的大公司,大多数都讨厌竞标流程。换句话说,这项业务对我们有利的原因之一是,很多大公司就是讨厌我们正在做的事情。他们想要更容易赚的钱,他们能够销售标准化的软件,只是一遍又一遍地重复并从中获利。
他们被惯坏了。我们愿意在所有这些小咨询合同的泥潭中奋力打拼。这使得我们在这一领域实际上只有少数几个竞争对手。
丽贝卡·奎克
查理,既然你提到了里克·艾伦——哦,请继续。
查理·芒格
不,你说吧。
丽贝卡·奎克
好的,既然你提到了里克·艾伦,我想问一个来自孟买罗尼·佩雷拉的问题,他问:“你的朋友里克·艾伦大约一年前去世了。他是你的长期朋友和几十年来的商业伙伴。他作为一个人、一个投资者是怎样的?你如何铭记他的遗产?”
查理·芒格
嗯,他作为一个人、作为一个投资者,都非常出色。当然,我非常想念他。我们在一起很多很多很多年,我们一起贫穷过,这产生了一种纽带。1961 年我们相遇时,我们都贫穷、挣扎,并且年轻。所以,我们共同经历了漫长的旅程。而且——但一切就是这样,这就是人类的宿命。
Charles Munger Well, what happened is we used to have [ Garon and ] Munger, who were the 2 biggest shareholders. And of course, we've been partners for years and years. And we took no fees, no directors fees, no expenses, no nothing. And so it was a very user-friendly Berkshire-type place. Well, [ Garon ] died finally at age 90-some. And so now we're down to one last survivor of the old guard. And of course, we need a certain number of new directors. And our new directors are pretty damn smart, and they're all rich, by the way. So it's still a very Berkshire-like Board, smart and rich and thinking like a capitalist to -- we still -- we have that. Steven Myhill-Jones I would add that while I don't have equity yet, I'm certainly keen to participate in the future growth of the business. What should the timing of that be with someone as new as me? I think that's an interesting question. Thomas, I... Charles Munger We'll work it out. Steven Myhill-Jones Yes. Right now, I don't think that's impacting my drive or decisions. I already feel enormous skin in the game that Mr. Munger and the Board entrusted me to take the reins of the business is something I take very seriously. Charles Munger It's really quite interesting to have a pile of securities and one interesting activity in a very high-tech field and with a lot of politics and travel and difficulty in it. But it's a huge, huge market. And it isn't like there are a lot of other people in it. Most of the big corporations that would be our natural competitors are places where they -- they hate RFPs. In other words, one of the reasons the business is good for us is a lot of the big companies just hate what we're doing. They want easier money, they are able to sell standard piece of software just repeat it over and over and get. They're spoiled. We're willing to slug it out of the mud of all these little consulting contracts. And that makes us to have literally a few competitors in the field. Rebecca Quick Charlie, since you brought up Rick Aaron -- oh, go ahead. Charles Munger No, go ahead. Rebecca Quick Well, since you brought up Rick Aaron, I want to get to this question from [ Roni Pereira ] in Mumbai, who says, "Your friend, Rick Aaron, passed away about a year ago. He was your long-time friend and business partner for several decades. How was he as a person, as an investor? And how do you remember his legacy?" Charles Munger Well, he was just terrific as a person, as an investor, and I miss him terribly, of course. We were together for years and years and years, and we were poor together, and that creates a bonding. When we met in 1961, we were both poor and struggling and young. So we had a long ride together. And -- but all things in, that's the nature of the human condition.
贝基·奎克
我想问一个来自李(Lee)的问题,这位股东只留了名。他问了一个关于 ChatGPT 和人工智能的问题,以及它们对《每日日报》商业模式乃至整个文明的影响。他说:“我不确定您是否尝试过与 ChatGPT 对话,毕竟最近新闻里铺天盖地的都是这玩意儿。简单来说,它是一种被称为语言模型的人工智能,基于大量文本数据(比如书籍和文章)进行训练。您对人工智能影响《每日日报》业务乃至更广泛地说影响整个文明有何看法?”
查理·芒格
嗯,我认为人工智能非常重要,但围绕这个话题也有大量疯狂的炒作。人工智能不会治愈癌症,它不会完成我们想做的所有事情。这里面也有很多胡说八道的东西。
所以,我认为所有这些人工智能都是好坏参半。有些人在某些事情上用得挺顺手,比如保险承保。但很多人试图把它用在普通事情上,比如买办公楼什么的,我觉得那远——我不认为它会在你打算买办公楼时帮上什么忙。无论如何,用处不大。
史蒂文·迈希尔-琼斯
从《每日日报》公司的角度来看,AI 是我们从今年夏天开始尝试的东西——用于撰写某些类型的文章。这是我们正在密切追踪的事情。
我认为,就复杂工作而言,距离它还远得很。但对于许多类型的活动,尤其是常规事务,我认为,看到它如何在相对较短的时间内颠覆许多类型的工作和活动,将会非常有趣。
查理·芒格
我们经历过一次巨大的颠覆,当时技术严重地——它对我们的出版业务产生了不利影响。我们在新业务中拥有机会,但这只是一个漫长而艰难的跋涉。没有捷径——我们正在做的事情没有通往成功的坦途。
贝基·奎克
一位名叫(彼得·费林)的人从安大略省的奥克维尔发来问题。他让 ChatGPT 想出一个问题来问您,查理。这是 ChatGPT 想出来的问题。
芒格先生,您曾谈到在决策中避免心理偏见的重要性。根据您的经验,最难克服的偏见是什么?您个人又是如何防范它的?所以我想请您回答这个问题,然后谈谈您对 GPT——ChatGPT 为您写的这个问题有何看法?
查理·芒格
嗯,如果让我说出一个主导人类糟糕决策的因素,那就是我所说的“否认”。如果真相足够令人不快,人们有点——他们的大脑会捉弄他们,他们会认为事情并没有真的发生。当然,这会给商业带来巨大的破坏,人们会继续往里头扔钱——他们过去做事的方式,在已经改变的世界里根本行不通了。
如果你想找一个否认如何影响事物的例子,看看投资管理界吧。有多少基金经理能跑赢指数?把所有成本考虑在内,我想大概只有 5% 能持续达到平均水平。
Rebecca Quick I want to get to a question from Lee, just the first name from this shareholder, wrote in a question about ChatGPT and artificial intelligence and the impact on the Daily Journal's business model and civilization at large, says, "I'm not sure if you've tried to converse with ChatGPT, given all the rage in the news lately. Briefly, it's artificial intelligence known as a language model. It's trained on a large data set of text like books and articles. What are your thoughts on AI's impact on Daily Journal's business and more broadly, our civilization at large? Charles Munger Well, I think artificial intelligence is very important, but it's also a lot of crazy hype on the subject. Artificial intelligence is not going to cure cancer. It's not going to do everything that we want done. And there's a lot of nonsense in it, too. So I regard as a mixed blessing, all this artificial intelligence. Some people have used it in some things like insurance underwriting pretty well. But a lot of people tried to use it, ordinary things like buying office buildings or something, I think that's way more -- I don't think it's going to help when you're going to buy an office building. Not very much anyway. Steven Myhill-Jones Through the lens of Daily Journal Corporation, AI is something that we started experimenting within the summer -- in the summer for certain types of -- writing certain types of articles. That's something we're certainly tracking very closely. I think in terms of complex work, I think it's a long way off. But for many types of activities, especially routine things, I think it will be fascinating to see how disruptive it is over a relatively short time horizon for many types of work and activities. Charles Munger We had our big disruption when technology kind of severely -- it adversely affected our publishing business. And we have our opportunity in this new business, but it's just a long, tough slog. There's no short -- there's no royal road to success in what we're doing. Rebecca Quick Someone named [ Peter Ferlin ] wrote in from Oakville, Ontario. And he had a question that he asked ChatGPT to come up with a question to ask you, Charlie. And here's what ChatGPT came up with. Mr. Munger, you've spoken about the importance of avoiding mental biases in decision-making. In your experience, what's the most challenging bias to overcome? And how do you personally guard against it? So I'd ask your answer to that question and then what you think of the question that GPT -ChatGPT wrote for you? Charles Munger Well, what -- if I had to name one factor that dominates human bad decisions, it would be what I call denial. If the truth is unpleasant enough, people kind of -- their mind plays tricks on them, and they think it isn't really happening. And of course, that causes enormous destruction of business where people will go on throwing money into -- the way they used to do things, isn't going to work at all well in the way the world is now having changed. And if you want an example of how denial is affecting things, take the world of investment management. How many managers are going to beat the indexes? All cost considered, I would say maybe 5% could consistently meet the averages.
其他所有人都活在极度否认的状态中。他们已经习惯了收取高额费用等等,但所提供的服务对客户毫无益处。这是一种深层的道德沦丧。如果一位寡妇带着 50 万美元来找你,你每年向她收取 1% 的费用,你本可以把她的钱投进指数基金,但你需要那 1% 的收入。于是,人们就会为毫无价值的建议收取相当可观的费用。
整个行业都充斥着这种否认心态。到处都是。所以我不得不说我总是引用德摩斯梯尼的话。那是很久以前了,德摩斯梯尼,那是 2000 多年前——超过 2000 年前了。他说过,人们希望什么,他们就相信什么。想想这种现象有多么普遍。
所以,这个问题当然极其重要。而且你可以亲眼看到。我想说的是,资金管理中的代理成本,高达数千亿美元,数都数不清。但没人能正视这一点。谁愿意呢?你得让孩子上学,你需要那些费用,你需要佣金,你需要这个那个。
所以,你做的是对自己有利、对客户有害的事。现在,我不认为伯克希尔会这样做。我也不认为我和加隆在《每日新闻》会这样做。我和加隆从未拿过一个整月的薪水或董事费之类的。如果我有一项业务,我用我的手机或汽车来联系,我不会把它记到《每日新闻》的账上。这简直是闻所未闻。但这本不该是闻所未闻的事,而且在伯克希尔确实如此。在《每日新闻》也是如此,不过我们现在在《每日新闻科技》公司有一个激励计划。
该计划有价值 100 万美元的《每日新闻》股票。这些股票并非来自公司增发。是我把自己的股票给了公司,用来奖励员工。打个比方,我这个招数是从比亚迪的一位家伙那里学来的,比亚迪是我们证券投资组合中持有的一只股票。比亚迪历史上,其创始人兼董事长有一次没有用公司股票来奖励高管。他动用了自己的股票。那也是一笔丰厚的奖励。那么,去年发生了什么?比亚迪去年在中国的汽车业务税后盈利超过 20 亿美元。天底下,有哪个新进入汽车行业的家伙能做到盈利 20 亿美元?这太不可思议了。
所以,在《每日新闻》,还保留着一些老派的资本主义美德;在伯克希尔·哈撒韦,也还保留着一些;在比亚迪,同样也有。但在大多数地方,每个人都试图拿取他们想要的东西,并且为自己找理由,不管这理由是否正当。
贝基·奎克
查理,你提到了比亚迪。那我就接着提问,这个问题来自纽约的斯蒂芬·斯宾塞。他好奇为什么芒格先生更偏爱投资比亚迪而不是特斯拉。
查理·芒格
嗯,这很简单。特斯拉去年在中国降价两次。比亚迪却涨价了。我们是直接竞争对手。我们远远领先于比亚迪——我是说,比亚迪在中国远远领先于特斯拉。这简直——这简直就是——几乎有点荒谬了。
你们大多数人可能没听说过比亚迪,如果你把他们在中国用来生产汽车的制造空间都算上,那面积之大,相当于曼哈顿岛的一大部分。而几年前,还没有人听说过它。
贝基·奎克
好的。让我再问另一个问题。这个问题来自迈克尔·阿塞托,他问的是有关伯克希尔的一些动向,即伯克希尔减持了一些持股。“出售比亚迪和台积电的股份,是否与中美关系有关?还是纯粹出于经济原因?”
Everybody else is living in the state of extreme denial. They're used to charging big fees and so forth for stuff that isn't doing their clients any good. It's a deep moral depravity. If some widow comes to you with $500,000 and you charge her 1 point a year for her, you could put her in the indexes, but you need the 1 point. And so people just charge somewhat a considerable fee for a worthless advice. And the whole profession is full, that kind of denial. It's everywhere. So I had to say I was -- I always quote Demosthenes. It's a long time ago, Demosthenes, that's 2,000 -- more than 2,000 years ago. And he said, what people wish is what they believe. Think of how much of that goes on. And so, it's of course, is hugely important. And you can just see it. I would say the agency costs and money management, there are just so many billions, it's uncountable. And nobody can face it. Who wants to -- keep your kids in school, you need the fees, you need the brokerage, you need this or that. So you do what's good for you and bad for them. Now I don't think Berkshire does that. And I don't think we -- [ Garon ] and I did at the Daily Journal. [ Garon ] and I never took entire month salary or directors' fees or anything. And if I have a business, I talk out of my phone or use my car, I don't charge it to the Daily Journal. That's unheard of. It shouldn't be unheard of, and it goes on in Berkshire. It goes on in the Daily Journal, but we have an incentive plan now in this Journal Technologies. And it has $1 million worth of Daily Journal stock. That didn't come from the company issuing those shares. I gave those shares to the company to use in compensating the employees. And I learned that trick, so to speak, from a guy at BYD, which is one of the securities we hold in our securities portfolio. And BYD at one time in its history, the founder, Chairman, he didn't use the company's stock to reward the executives. He used his own stock. It was a big reward, too. Well, last year, what happened? BYD last year made more than $2 billion after taxes in the auto business in China. Who in the hell makes $2 billion, who's a brand-new entrant in the auto business for all practical purposes. It's incredible what's happened. And so there is some of this old-fashioned capitalist virtual lift in the Daily Journal, and there's something left in Berkshire Hathaway, and there's something left in BYD. But most places, everybody is trying to take what they need and just rationalizing whether it's deserved or not. Rebecca Quick Charlie, you bring up BYD. So I'll jump to a question from [ Stephen Spencer ], who writes in from New York, New York. He's curious why Mr. Munger prefers an investment in BYD to Tesla. Charles Munger Well, that's easy. Tesla last year reduced its prices in China twice. BYD increased its prices. We're direct competitors. We're so much ahead of BYD -- I mean, BYD is so much ahead of Tesla in China. It's like -- it's just -- it's almost ridiculous. And if you look at BYD, which most of you never heard of, if you count all the manufacturing space they have in China to make cars, it would amount to a big percentage of what we have in Manhattan Island. And nobody ever heard of them a few years ago. Rebecca Quick All right. Let me jump to another question. This one comes from Michael [ Assetto ] who says, did the -- this is with regards to some movement at Berkshire, some sales of Berkshire's stake holdings. " Did the sale of BYD and Taiwan Semi shares have anything to do with the relations between the United States and China? Or was it for purely economic reasons?"
查理·芒格
嗯,比亚迪正在讨论 50 倍市盈率。那是一个非常高的价格。但另一方面,他们今年汽车销量可能又增长了 50%。所以——顺便说一句,我们之前看到我们的一部分——不是之前,大约一年前,价格比现在高得多。
不,我们不是迷你伯克希尔。我们和伯克希尔的行动不会有很大的相关性。你也能理解为什么有人会在当前 50 倍市盈率的价格卖出比亚迪股票:一个小比亚迪的市值就超过了整个梅赛德斯公司。所以这可不是一支便宜的股票。
但另一方面,它是一家非常卓越的公司。另外,我想告诉大家我对比亚迪成功的巨大贡献。我们是通过李录进入的,当时它是一家打垮日本手机的小公司。
这家公司的董事长是个天才,他在做手机那家小公司的时候就说,我要收购一家破产的、破破烂烂的小汽车厂,从零开始进入汽车行业。而我和李录都试图劝他。请别干这种蠢事。
你在汽车行业会碰得头破血流,小比亚迪什么的。结果呢,去年他们在汽车业务上赚了超过 20 亿美元,从零起步。这是闻所未闻的。但李录和我却得到了所有的赞誉,因为我们试图劝他——我们试图说服他别做后来干得那么漂亮的事,这说明生活中确实有些偶然因素。
贝基·奎克
查理,这个问题来自迈克尔·加拉格尔。他说:“根据公司文件,阿里巴巴的股票似乎是用杠杆购买的。去年股价下跌时,您似乎被迫卖出了。”他指的是您。“能否请查理确认是否使用了杠杆?如果用了,为什么这么做,这似乎违背了他的原则?”我收到了几个类似的问题。
查理·芒格
是的,没错。我晚年长期不用杠杆,沃伦也一样。但最近,我在另一个地方确实用了一点杠杆,因为机会实在太诱人了。我觉得这么做是合理的。
所以你说得对,这对我们来说不常见,但我们确实发现了一些机会。另外,如果你回顾我职业生涯早期,我也用过一些杠杆。我有时会问自己一个考验心性的问题:如果你觉得某只股票是百分之百的稳赢,你应该把净资产的多少比例投进去?
如果你是这样一种人——当你认为某事稳赢时你通常是对的——那答案就是 100%,甚至 150%。但在金融领域,没人教人们这么想。但如果机会足够大,逻辑上的答案就是 100% 甚至 200%。
贝基·奎克
另一个人写信来,我现在没有那封邮件在手头,但他引用过您的名言:毁掉人的三样东西是女人、酒和杠杆。既然您知道杠杆是能毁掉人的三样东西之一,为什么还要用它?
查理·芒格
嗯,我在上升过程中用过一点,顺便说一句,沃伦也是。巴菲特合伙公司在其存续的每一年都规律性地使用杠杆。沃伦的做法是,他会买入一堆股票,任何借贷者——这些股票年底需要处理——他们过去称之为糟糕的套利、清算、并购等等。那些并不随市场波动。那是一门独立的银行业务。
本杰明·格雷厄姆给这类投资起了个名字,他叫它们“犹太国库券”。我一直觉得他这么叫很有趣。沃伦在上升路上用过杠杆买犹太国库券,对他而言效果很好。
我不认为我们俩谁——嗯,不,伯克希尔持有动视暴雪的股票。你可以争论那是否——是否会通过,我不知道,但那就是犹太国库券。
贝基·奎克
套利,动视暴雪的套利操作?
查理·芒格
嗯,是的,(听不清)套利——我们有点停止做了,因为竞争者太多了。但在这里,小伯克希尔又在做了,动视暴雪,而芒格在《每日邮报》公司用了一点杠杆。
贝基·奎克
所以杠杆是……
查理·芒格
你可以说我用那些杠杆买了比亚迪,你可以说这是我为《每日邮报》做过的最好的事。
贝基·奎克
那么,杠杆是三个 L 中危害最小的那个吗?
查理·芒格
我认为大多数人应该避免它,但也许不是所有人都需要遵守那些规则。我有个朋友说,年轻人知道规则,而老人知道例外。
贝基·奎克
好,另一个问题。
查理·芒格
他没说错。他知道。
贝基·奎克
是的。另一个问题来自布兰登·麦基。他也问了关于阿里巴巴的一些情况。他说:“投资者应如何看待地缘政治事件对其海外投资的影响?您如何看待近期中国间谍气球事件对阿里巴巴投资的影响?”
查理·芒格
嗯,这当然是一件非常有趣的事。马云曾是阿里巴巴的主导资本家。有一天,他站起来发表公开演讲,说共产党全是君主制,他们不知道(听不清)他们一点也不好,而我很聪明。
当然,共产党不喜欢他的演讲。很快,他就消失了好几个月,现在他不在比亚迪了。这很蠢。就像用尖棍子戳熊的鼻子。这不聪明。马云那样对中国政府发飙,做得太过分了。
当然,这伤害了阿里巴巴。但在我看来,阿里巴巴是我犯过的最严重的错误之一。在研究阿里巴巴时,我被它在中国互联网上的地位迷住了。我没有意识到他们仍然是一个……
Charles Munger Well, BYD is talking about 50x earnings. That is a very high price. On the other hand, they're likely to have increased their auto sales by another 50% this year. So it's -- we saw a part of ours, by the way, years ago -- not years, about a year ago at a much higher price than they're selling for now. And no, we're not a mini Berkshire. We're not going to have a big correlation between us and what Berkshire does. And you could understand why somebody will sell Berkshire's -- BYD stock at 50x earnings at the current price of BYD stock, a little BYD is worth more than the entire Mercedes Corporation, market capitalization. So it's not a cheap stock. On the other hand, it's a very remarkable company. And by the way, I want to tell people the great contribution I made to the success of BYD. We got into it through Li Lu, and it was a little company that knocked off the Japanese cellphones. And the Chairman of this company was a -- genius say, I'll buy a bankrupt, a little crappy auto plant and go to the auto business from dead scratch when he's making cell phones little [indiscernible] company. And both Li Lu and I tried talking about it. Please don't do this dumb thing. You get your head handed to you in the auto business, little BYD and so forth. Well, last year, they made more than $2 billion in the auto business from that standing start at 0. It's unheard of. But Li Lu and I get all the credit because we tried to get him -- we tried to talk about doing what works so well, which shows that there's some accident in life. Rebecca Quick Charlie, this question comes from [ Michael Gallagher ]. He says, "According to company filings, it appeared that Alibaba shares were purchased with leverage. And when the stock price fell last year, he was seemingly forced to sell," he being you. "Can you ask Charlie to confirm that it was bought with leverage? And if so, why would he do that as it seems to go against his philosophy? " I got several questions that were similar to that. Charles Munger Yes, it's true. I operated with no leverage for long stretches of my old age and Warren is the same way. And recently, I did use a little bit of leverage here in another place because the opportunities were so ridiculously good. I thought it was desirable to do that. So you're right, it's unusual for us, but we did find a few things. And by the way, if you go back early in my career, I used some leverage. I sometimes ask myself a mettle question, I say, "What is the appropriate percentage of your net worth you should put it in the stock if you think it's an absolute cinch?" Well, if you're kind of fellow who's right when you think something is the cinch the answer is 100% or maybe 150%. But nobody teaches people to think that way in finance. But if the opportunity is great enough, the logical answer is 100% or maybe 200%. Rebecca Quick Somebody else wrote in, and I don't have the e-mail in front of me at the moment, but he wrote in quoting you, where you said the 3 things that ruin people are ladies, liquor and leverage. So why would you use leverage when you know that's 1 of the 3 things that can destroy somebody? Charles Munger Well, I used a little on my way up, and so did Warren, by the way. The Buffett partnership used leverage regularly every year of its life. What Warren would do is, he would buy a bunch of stocks and any borrower -- and so stocks need by end of these -- they used to call the bad arbitrage, liquidations, mergers and so forth. And that was not -- didn't go up and down with the market. That was an independent banking business. And Ben Graham's name for that type of investment, he called them Jewish Treasury Bills. And it always amused me that's what he would call them. But Warren used leverage to buy Jewish Treasury Bills on the way up, and it worked fine for him. I don't think neither of us, everybody is -- well, no, Berkshire has stock in Activision Blizzard. And you can argue that's -- whether that will go through or not, I don't know, but that's the Jewish Treasury Bill. Rebecca Quick Arbitrage, the arbitrage play on Activision? Charles Munger Well, yes, [indiscernible] arbitrage -- we sort of stopped doing it because it sets a crowd in place. But here's little Berkshire doing it again and Activision Blizzard and Munger using a little leverage at the Daily Journal Corporation. Rebecca Quick So is leverage... Charles Munger You can argue that I used that leverage to buy BYD, you can argue it's the best thing I've ever done for the Daily Journal. Rebecca Quick So is leverage the least evil of the 3 Ls? Charles Munger I think most people should avoid it, but maybe not everybody need to play by those rules. I have a friend who says, the young man knows the rules, and the old man knows the exceptions. Rebecca Quick All right, another question. Charles Munger He's lived right. He knows it. Rebecca Quick Yes. Another question comes in from [ Brandon McKee ]. He's also asking about some of the situations with Alibaba. He said, "How should investors view geopolitical events in regards to their investment in foreign countries? How do you look at the situation of the recent Chinese spy balloon in regards to the Alibaba investment?" Charles Munger Well, of course, it was a very interesting thing. Jack Ma was a dominant capitalist in Alibaba. And one day, he got up and made a public speech, where he said the communist party is full of monarchy. They don't know [indiscernible] they're no damn good, and I'm smart. And of course, the communist partly didn't like his speech. And pretty soon, he just sort of disappeared from view for months on end, and now he's out of BYD. It was pretty stupid. It's like poking a bear in the nose with a sharp stick. It's not smart. And Jack Ma got way out of line by popping off the way he did to the Chinese government. And of course, it hurt Alibaba and -- but I regard Alibaba as one of the worst mistakes I ever made. In thinking about Alibaba, I got charmed with the idea of their position on the Chinese Internet. I didn't stop to realize they're still a
该死的零售商。互联网会是一个充满竞争的行业,对所有人来说都不是一件轻松的事。
贝基·奎克
再说到中国,我收到了很多关于这方面的问题。我来问一个来自加利福尼亚州核桃溪市 [ 威尔科·舒尔岑多夫 ] 的问题。他说:"之前,您曾表示尽管存在某些缺陷,中国总体上是朝着正确方向前进的。然而,鉴于中国政府近期采取的行动,诸如随意惩罚科技和教育公司、拒绝进口有效的 COVID 疫苗、以及不断升级对台湾的威胁,您是否仍然认为中国对外国资本而言是一个可行的投资选项?还是说中国正在经历类似俄罗斯在普京领导下那样的倒退,最终以入侵台湾而告终?"
查理·芒格
嗯,这当然是个非常好的问题。但我认为,因为乌克兰发生的事,中国卷入一场大对抗的可能性下降了,而不是上升了。我认为中国领导人是一个非常聪明、务实的人。他不——俄罗斯入侵乌克兰就像走平地一样轻松。
我不认为台湾现在看起来还像走平地那么轻松。我认为在很长、很长一段时间内,它在中国这边都不是一个选项。我认为这有助于投资中国的投资者的前景。另一件有助于中国前景的事情是,你可以买到最好的——你可以在中国以比美国更低的估值买到更好、更强的公司。
所以,你得到的是——考虑到你得到的额外价值,额外的风险是值得承担的。这就是我们投资中国的原因。这并不是说我们更偏好某个外国。当然,我更愿意待在我家附近的洛杉矶。那会更方便。但我在我家附近找不到那么多投资机会。
贝基·奎克
再追问一下。亚历克斯 [ 赖特森 ] —— [ 亚历克斯·富尔曼斯基 ] ——抱歉,字体太小,他写道:"过去几个月的中国政治事件如何影响了你对该国的看法?包括我在内的几个人,对 10 月 22 日全国代表大会上胡锦涛前主席被强行带离感到震惊。习近平主席似乎巩固了权力,他的行动表明他对商业在中国社会中的角色有着非常不同的看法。"
查理·芒格
嗯,我比大多数人更看好中国共产党的领导人。他也做了很多正确的事。他领导了一场大规模反腐运动。他做了很多正确的事情。所以——我不知道这个人住在哪里。在这个充满罪恶与悲伤的世界里,哪里有一个政府是完美的呢?民主国家的管理也并非那么严谨。所以政府做出一些效果不佳的决定是很自然的。每个人的生活中做出一些不太好的决定也是很自然的。
我们生活在一个充满罪恶、悲伤和错误决定的世界。这就是人类在生命中需要应对的东西。所以我不指望世界会没有愚蠢、错误等等。我只希望我投资的人是那些判断力好过坏判断的人。我不知道有谁总是对的。
贝基·奎克
还有来自加利福尼亚州库比蒂诺的 [ 基思 ] 写道,这个问题同属一个方向但更聚焦。"我们应该如何看待围绕台湾的政治气候及其对半导体行业的长期影响?"
God damn retailer. It's going to be a competitive business, the Internet. It's not going to be a cakewalk for everybody. Rebecca Quick Just about China in general, I had a lot of questions that came in regarding that. I'll ask this one from [ Wilco Schulzendorf ]. It's coming in from Walnut Creek, California, who just said, "Previously, you stated that despite certain shortcomings, China was generally moving in the right direction. However, with the recent actions taken by the Chinese government such as capriciously punishing technology and educational companies, declining to import effective COVID vaccines, escalating threats towards Taiwan, do you still maintain that China is a viable investment option for foreign capital? Or is China experiencing a similar regression as Russia has seen under Putin's leadership that culminates in the invasion of Taiwan?" Charles Munger Well, that's a very good question, of course. But I would argue the chances in a big confrontation from China have gone down, not up because of what happened in the Ukraine. I think that the Chinese leader is a very smart, practical person. And he doesn't -- Russia went into the Ukraine is like a cakewalk. I don't think Taiwan looks like such a cakewalk anymore. I think it's off the table in China for a long, long time. And I think that helps the prospects of investors who invest in China. And the other thing that helps in terms of the China prospects are that you can buy the best -- you can buy better, stronger companies at a cheaper valuation in China than you can in the United States. So you're getting -- the extra risk can be worth running, given the extra value you get. That's why we're in China. It isn't like we prefer being in some foreign country. Of course, I'd rather be in Los Angeles right next to my house. It will be more convenient. But I can't find that many investments right next to my house. Rebecca Quick Just a follow-up on that. Alex [ Wrightson ] -- [ Alex Furmansky ] --I'm sorry, it's a very small print, writes in, "How have political events in China over the last few months affected your thinking on the country?" Several people, including me, were taken aback by the forceful withdrawal of former President, Hu Jintao, at the October 22 Annual Congress. President Xi seems to have consolidated power, and his actions have indicated that he thinks very differently about the role of business in Chinese society." Charles Munger Well, I have more optimism about the leader of the Chinese party than most people do. He's done a lot right, too. And he had led a big anticorruption drive. He's done a lot of things right. So -- and I don't know where this man lives. Where is there a place where the government is perfect in the world of sin and sorrow? Democracies aren't that rigidly run either. So it's natural to have some decisions made by government that don't work well. It's natural to have decisions in each individual life that don't work very well. We live in a world of sin, sorrow and misdecision. That's what human beings get to cope with in their days of life. So I don't expect the world will be free of folly and mistakes and so forth. And I just hope I've invested with people who have more good judgment than bad judgment. I don't know anybody who's right all the time. Rebecca Quick And [ Keith ] from Cupertino, California writes in, and this is in the same vein but a little more focused. "How should we think about the political climate around Taiwan and the long-term impact on the semiconductor industry?
具体来说,你是否看好《芯片与科学法案》?
查理·芒格:
半导体行业是一个非常古怪的行业。在这个行业,你必须把赚来的所有钱,随着每一代新芯片的推出,把之前赚到的所有钱都投进去。所以,如果你想留在牌桌上,这就是被迫投入一切。
我当然讨厌这种生意。在伯克希尔,我们喜欢有大量盈余资金进来,这样我们就能拿去做别的事。当然,如果你现在领先,就像台积电那样,以这个价格买入可能是个好买卖。
我完全不清楚他们会不会大获成功。但这很困难——对最终的赢家来说,这是个巨大的承诺,但它是个艰难的行业,需要每个人都不断地把所有钱押进去,一次又一次。所以,半导体这门生意并不完美。
但还记得英特尔曾称霸世界的时候吗?英特尔曾经就是全球的台积电。他们发明了这该死的行业,并且统治了几十年。而我不清楚,英特尔现在落后这么多,还能不能拥有一门非常体面的半导体生意。我的答案是,这不像看起来那么万无一失。
贝基·奎克:
即使有激励机制让公司在美国建厂,比如英特尔在俄亥俄州做的那样?
查理·芒格:
嗯,那当然会有帮助。但他们在借钱。没有迹象表明政府会豁免这些贷款或者怎么样。这不像最近给企业的那些贷款,政府说,“呃,你欠了钱,然后哦,钱你留着吧。”
政府至少在新的半导体贷款上不打算这么做。所以——好吧,这不是我觉得自己有很多专业知识的领域。关于半导体,我他妈知道什么?
贝基·奎克:
你是否担心政府会对最终使用半导体或其他资金的附加任何条件?
查理·芒格:
嗯,当然,所有这些都与中国和美国的政策深深交织在一起。所以我自己更愿意要一些更稳妥的东西。但我确实认为台积电是地球上最强的半导体公司。所以我非常钦佩他们取得的成就。他们的成就简直不可思议。
贝基·奎克:
说到你更喜欢的东西……
查理·芒格:
顺便说一句,这可能是一笔很棒的投资,我不喜欢它只是因为我老了,我不喜欢学新东西。但这并不意味着它不适合某个比我更了解它的年轻人。
贝基·奎克:
好吧。实际上,我想换个话题。我们待会儿再回到这个问题,但这引出了我下一个关于加密货币的问题。
Specifically, do you see the chips -- the CHIPS and Science Act favorably?" Charles Munger Well, the semiconductor industry is a very peculiar industry. In semiconductor industry, you have to take all the money you've made, and with each new generation of chips, you throw in all the money you've previously made. So it's compulsory investment of everything you want to stay in the game. Naturally, I hate a business like that. In Berkshire, we like a whole lot of surplus money to come in that we can do something else with. And of course, now if you're now ahead of it, like Taiwan Semiconductor is, that may be a good buy at these prices. It's not at all clear to me that they're not going to succeed mightily. But it's a difficult -- its bit of an enormous promise for the big winner, but it's a difficult business and requiring everybody to keep increasing the bets on and on with all the money. And so -- it's not perfect, that semiconductor business. But remember when Intel owned the world? Intel was once the Taiwan Semiconductor business of the world. They invented the damn business, and they've dominated it for decades. And it's not clear to me that Intel is going to have a very decent semiconductor business, getting as far behind as they are now. My answer is it's not so damn foolproof as it looked. Rebecca Quick Even with the incentives to build plants here in the United States, like Intel is doing in Ohio? Charles Munger Well, of course, that will really help. But they're borrowing money. There's no indication that government is going to forgive the loans or something. It's not like the recent loans to the business where they said, "we'll you owe the money and then oh, keep the money." The government is not planning to do that at least new semiconductor loans. And so -- okay, it's not a field where I feel I have a lot of expertise. What the hell do I know about semiconductors? Rebecca Quick Do you worry about any conditions that the government would put on companies that end up using any of that money with semiconductors or anything else? Charles Munger Well, of course, all of that, it's deeply intertwined with government policies in both China and the United States. So I would rather have something that's more foolproof myself. But I do think Taiwan Semiconductor is the strongest semiconductor company on earth. So I am a big admirer of what they've achieved. It's just incredible of what they've achieved. Rebecca Quick Speaking of things you like better... Charles Munger By the way, maybe a wonderful investment, the fact that I don't like it because I am an old man, and I don't like learning new tricks. That doesn't mean it isn't right for some younger person that understands it better than I do. Rebecca Quick Okay. And actually, that -- I'm going to switch gears. We'll come back to this question in a minute, but that leads me to this question about crypto that
本杰明来信。他写道:“2007 年,查理在南加州大学法学院说过,‘除非我能把反对自己立场的论点阐述得比支持它的人还要好,否则我就没有资格对这个主题持有意见。’问题是,这个原则是否也适用于你《华尔街日报》那篇关于禁止加密货币的文章?如果适用,你是否愿意分享一下反对你立场的论点?”
查理·芒格:嗯,我认为反对我立场的论点根本不成立。我觉得那些反对我立场的人都是白痴。所以我认为不存在任何理性的反对论点。这简直不可思议。当然,那些沉迷赌博的人,还有那些在骗局中让人血本无归的人,自然会喜欢这种东西。那些搞这种加密垃圾的人——我管它叫加密垃圾,有时候叫加密破烂,有时候叫加密狗屁。任何人买这种东西都荒谬透顶。你几乎找不出地球上有什么东西比货币、国家货币对人类文明贡献更大的了。国家货币绝对是将人类从成功类人猿转变为现代成功人类和人类文明所必需的。它让所有便捷的交易成为可能。
所以,如果有人说什么要搞个替代国家货币的东西,那就像说我要替代空气一样。简直不可理喻。这不只是有点蠢,而是极度愚蠢。
当然,这也很危险。当然,政府完全不应该允许它存在。当然,我为自己国家允许这种狗屁——我称之为加密狗屁——感到羞耻。它一文不值。毫无用处。根本疯了。它只会带来危害,允许它存在就是反社会的。
在这方面做出正确决定的是中国领导人。中国领导人看了一眼加密狗屁,就说“我的中国容不下这个”,然后砰的一声,结束了,中国就没有加密狗屁了。他是对的,我们是错的。另一边没有任何站得住脚的论点。我提供不了。
贝基·奎克:那这是否违背了你当年在南加州大学说的“除非你能阐述对立论点,否则就不该持有立场”?
查理·芒格:我确实认为你应该能够阐述很多问题。你应该——社会安全网应该有多大?那是一个理性的人可以持不同看法的地方。你应该能够把另一边的论点陈述得和你相信的论点一样好。
但当你面对像加密狗屁这种糟糕透顶的东西时,那简直不可言说。那绝对是一场噩梦。我为我的国家感到羞耻,竟然有这么多人相信这种垃圾,而且政府还允许它存在,这完全、绝对是一个疯狂的、愚蠢的赌博,庄家对另一边的人拥有巨大的优势。
而且他们在作弊——除了作弊和赌博,简直疯了。所以就是这样。对于聪明人来说只有一个正确答案,就是完全避开它,避开所有鼓吹它的人。
贝基·奎克:你对超级碗期间和周边发生的赌博,以及当前美国境内合法化的赌博有什么看法?
查理·芒格:嗯,那没有加密狗屁那么糟糕。我认为用自己负担得起的小额钱财赌一赌超级碗比赛没多大害处。那更像——你和朋友之间玩玩,不是跟赌庄赌。所以我感觉不一样——很明显,我认为你不应该有那种逆着赔率赌博的冲动。把我一生中所有逆着赔率的赌注加起来,我想也不会超过几千美元。
贝基·奎克:[阿伦·谢伊] 来信说……
查理·芒格:我完全赞成顺着赔率下注。
贝基·奎克:顺着赔率,是的。[阿伦·谢伊] 来信说……
查理·芒格:是的,当然。
贝基·奎克:他问道:“如果芒格先生认为比特币和以太坊是毒药,那他有没有通过做空它们获利?”
查理·芒格:不,我不做空。我一生中只做过 3 次卖空交易,而且都是 30 多年前的事了。一次是货币,还有两次是股票交易。那两次股票交易,一次我赚了一大笔,另一次亏了一大笔,结果两者抵消了。我的货币赌注赚了 100 万美元,但那种赚钱方式实在太烦人了。我的意思是,我已经不干了。
Benjamin writes in. He says, "In 2007 at the USC Law School, Charlie said, I'm not entitled to have an opinion on this subject unless I can state the arguments against my position better than the people who are supporting it. The question is, does this also apply to your Wall Street Journal article on banning cryptocurrencies? And if yes, would you care to share the arguments against your position?" Charles Munger Well, I don't think there are good arguments against my position. I think the people who oppose my position are idiots. And so I don't think there is a rational argument against my position. This is an incredible thing. Naturally, people like who're in gambling and seals wherever people lose. And the people who had been in this crypto crappo which is my name for it, sometimes I call it crypto crappo and sometimes I call it well, crypto s*. And it's ridiculous that anybody would buy this stuff. It isn't -- you can think of hardly nothing on earth has done more good to the human race than currency, national currencies. They were absolutely required to turn man from a damn successful ape into modern successful humans and human civilization. This has enabled all these convenient exchanges. So if somebody says I'm going to create something that sort of replaces the national currency, it's like saying I'm going to replace a [ natural ] air. It's [indiscernible]. It isn't slightly stupid, it's massively stupid. And of course, it is very dangerous. And of course, the governments were totally wrong to permit it. And of course, I'm not proud of my country for allowing this c*, what I call a crypto s*. It's worthless. It's no good. It's crazy. It will do nothing but harm and its antisocial to allow it. And the guy who made the correct decision on this is the Chinese leader. The Chinese leader took one look at crypto s*, and he says "not in my China," and boom is over, there isn't any crypto s* in China. He's right, and we're wrong. And there is no good argument on the other side. I can't supply it. Rebecca Quick So does that counter what you said back at USC that you shouldn't have a position unless you can encounter? Charles Munger I do think you ought to be able to state a lot of issues. You ought to be -how big should the social safety net be? That's a place where reasonable minds can disagree. And you should be able to state the case on the other side about as well so the case you believe in. But when you're dealing with something as awful as crypto s*, it's just unspeakable. It's an absolute horror. And I'm ashamed of my country that so many people believe in this kind of crap and the government allows it to exist is totally, absolutely crazy, stupid gambling with enormous house odds for the people on the other side. And they cheat -- in addition to cheating and like betting, it's just crazy. So that is something. There's only one correct answer for intelligent people there, just totally avoid it and avoid all the people that are promoting it. Rebecca Quick How do you feel about the gambling that took place at the Super Bowl and surrounding that and the legalized gambling taking place in this country at this point? Charles Munger Well, it's not as bad as crypto s***. I don't think there's much harm in betting a modest amount you can afford on a Supermarket Bowl game. That strikes me as a pretty -- thing you do it with a friend and not with a bookie. So I don't have the same feeling -- I obviously don't think you should have a gambling impulse around betting against odds. If you take all the money that I have bet against odds in my whole life, I don't think it's more than a few thousand dollars. Rebecca Quick [ Allan Shay ] writes in, and he says... Charles Munger I'm all in favor betting with the odds. Rebecca Quick With the odds, yes. [ Allan Shay ] writes in and... Charles Munger Yes, sure. Rebecca Quick He says, "If Mr. Munger thinks that Bitcoin and Ethereum are rat poison, has he ever profited by shorting them?" Charles Munger No, I don't short. I have made 3 short sales in my entire life, and they're all more than 30 years ago. And one was a currency, and there were 2 stock trades. In the 2 stock trades, I made a big profit on one of them, made a big loss on the other, and they canceled out. And my currency bet, I made $1 million, but it was a very irritating way to make $1 million. I mean, I've stopped.
贝基·奎克:估计是不值当为那点钱操那份心。
查理·芒格:你可以笑,但这是真的。那件事确实让人恼火。
贝基·奎克:是因为你担心吗?
查理·芒格:怎么说呢,就像我冲你要追加保证金似的。我不断地递送国库券过去。整个过程非常不愉快。最后我确实赚了钱,但我再也不想经历第二次了。
贝基·奎克:查理,我说过我会回到这个问题。这跟您确实喜欢的一项投资有关。来自魁北克蒙特利尔的阿米·帕特尔(Ami Patel)来信说,您非常喜欢好市多(Costco)。那么从长期来看,您认为什么东西可能伤害到好市多的经济护城河?
查理·芒格:只要好市多坚守强大的文化以及他们极低加价率的政策,我看不出有什么能阻挡它。好市多的问题在于其市盈率高达 40 倍。但除此之外,它是一家完美得该死的好公司。它的未来一片光明,拥有出色的文化,一直由优秀的人在经营。我喜欢好市多的一切。我就是它的铁杆粉丝。我永远不会卖出他们的股票。
Rebecca Quick Not worth the headache, I guess. Charles Munger Well, you can laugh, but that's true. It was irritating. Rebecca Quick Because you were worried? Charles Munger Well, like I'm asking you for more margin. I kept sending over treasury notes. It was very unpleasant. I made a profit in the end, but I never want to do it again. Rebecca Quick Charlie, I said I'd come back to this question. This was about something that you do like as an investment. Ami Patel from Montreal, Quebec writes in that you love Costco. So what do you think can hurt Costco's economic moat in the long term? Charles Munger Well, as long as Costco keeps the faith with a strong culture and their extreme low markup policy, I don't see any stopping at that. The trouble with Costco is it's 40x earnings. But except for that, it's a perfect damn company. And it has a marvelous future. And it has a wonderful culture, and it's been run by wonderful people. And I love everything about Costco. I'm a total addict. Never going to sell their share. Rebecca Quick
下一位提问者是戴维·卡斯(David Kass),他是马里兰大学的金融学教授。他说自己是《每日日报》公司的股东,如果你能回答其中一个问题,他会非常感激。我接下来要问的问题是:拜登总统提议将股票回购税率从目前的 1% 提高至 4%。你对股票回购征税怎么看?
查理·芒格
嗯,我强烈反对,因为我认为——一个良好的文化里应该有很多优秀受托人。一旦你能通过回购自己的股票为股东创造更多利益,那用公司资金去做蠢事就像偷窃一样。我喜欢鼓励道德、体面和诚信,而你打交道的人正是你作为受托人服务的对象。所以,在某些事情上我同意总统的意见,但这件事不在其中。
贝基·奎克
你强烈反对吗?
查理·芒格
什么?
贝基·奎克
你强烈反对吗?
查理·芒格
你再说一遍。
贝基·奎克
你是强烈反对吗?
The next question comes from David Kass, who is a Professor of Finance at the University of Maryland. He says he's a shareholder of the Daily Journal Corporation and would appreciate it if you'd answer one of these questions. The question that I'll ask from is President Biden has proposed increasing the tax on stock buybacks from its current level of 1% to a new higher level of 4%. What are your views on taxing stock buybacks? Charles Munger Well, I'm strongly opposed because I think if you're -- a good culture has a lot of people who are good fiduciaries. And it is like stealing to do something dumb with the corporate money once you can get more advantage to your shareholders from buying back your own stock. And I like encouraging morality and decency and honor, and so you're dealing with the people you're the fiduciary for. And so I agree with our President on some things, but this is not one of them. Rebecca Quick Vehemently disagree? Charles Munger What? Rebecca Quick Vehemently disagree? Charles Munger Say that again. Rebecca Quick Do you vehemently disagree?
查理·芒格
嗯,我倒不是特别激动,因为这东西还没加密货币那么糟。是的,这是一个可以原谅的错误。但我确实强烈反对。我认为采纳那种政策是个大错。可我是共和党人。我有时候也投民主党,但我确实是共和党人。
贝基·奎克
另一个关于股票回购的问题来自新泽西州莫里斯敦的埃德·普伦迪维尔。他说:“伯克希尔的股票回购速度大幅放缓,从 2022 年一季度回购 30 亿美元降到二季度 10 亿美元,三季度也是 10 亿美元。”尽管股价随大盘一起下跌了一些,人们会认为股价越低回购应该越多才对。伯克希尔回购定价时,是依据大约 3000 亿美元的股票投资组合的内在价值,还是依据市场报价?
查理·芒格
他们具体怎么操作我从来不管。他们是一群谨慎小心的人。不过——你要是看看过去三年总共回购了多少,那数字可不小。所以我完全赞同我们正在做的事,而且我觉得对我们征税完全不公平。我们是在为自己股东做好事。
贝基·奎克
总统今天阐述了理由,我想他说的是,超过 90% 的高管薪酬都包含股票补偿,至少部分如此。他说——可能这是昨天说的。他说那样不公平。提高自己薪酬的最好办法就是回购自家股票。这对高管有利,对股东有利,但对员工和其他利益相关者没好处。
Charles Munger Well, I'm not vehement because it's not as bad as cryptocurrency. Yes, it's a forgivable error. But yes, I disagree strongly. I think it's a big mistake to adopt that policy. But I'm a Republican. I sometimes vote for Democrats, but I am a Republican. Rebecca Quick Another question on stock buybacks comes in from Ed Prendiville in Morristown, New Jersey. He says, "Berkshire share repurchases slowed considerably from $3 billion in the first quarter of 2022 to $1 billion in the second quarter and $1 billion in the third quarter." Even though the price declined somewhat as did the general market, one would think that the buyback would increase with a lower stock price. Does Berkshire adjust its buyback price based on the intrinsic value of the approximately $300 billion stock portfolio or the quoted price?" Charles Munger I never pay any attention on how they do it. They're cautious and careful people. And -- but if you take the amount that's been brought back in the last 3 years, it's a lot. And so I thoroughly approve what we're doing, and I don't consider at all fair that we're being taxed. We're doing something good for our own shareholders. Rebecca Quick The President laid out the case today, I think he said something like north of 90% of executives are paid with stock compensation, at least in part. He said -- maybe this was yesterday that he said this. He said that, that's not fair. The best way to boost your own compensation is to buy back your shares. So it helps the executives, it helps the shareholders, but it doesn't help the employees or other constituents.
查理·芒格
嗯,毫无疑问,他确实更同情员工,这可以理解。很多人都会在这个问题上和总统的立场一致。对于这些想法在全国范围内能分配得多好,我没有太大的意见。
我觉得——我不知道答案。我确实认为,如果我们想要一个能推动这些进步的生产性经济,我们就需要资本主义体系。
贝基·奎克
好的。下一个问题来自迈克尔,我想他的姓是马索,不过我是根据邮件地址推断的,不是他给的姓氏。他说自己是伯克希尔长期股东,最近读了一篇恼人的《巴伦周刊》文章,声称伯克希尔股东在巴菲特走后会受益,因为公司可能面临分拆压力。我看不出公司被分拆我们怎么会受益。正如你和沃伦长期所说的,公司整体比各部分更强,一个部门总能帮助另一个有需要的部门。他说他知道你和沃伦说过,现有的结构和理念在你们离开后将会保留。我希望这——我希望这不会在很短的时间内发生。不过,请给我们股东一些 reassurance,公司永远不会屈服于这些愚蠢的分拆压力。
查理·芒格
嗯,我认为在很长、很长一段时间内,我们被分拆的可能性微乎其微。很多公司死了比活着更值钱,意思是按目前整个企业的收购价格,你可以把东西卖得更高。但你只能做一次。股东要交一大笔税,然后还得发愁怎么处理这笔钱,等等。我认为综合考虑各种因素,并且伯克希尔会在股价合理时回购自己的股票,伯克希尔对全体长期股东来说,是相当不错的一个赌注。
我认为这没什么难的。公司不会被分拆。它运转得相当好。所有买了伯克希尔并持有 20 年的人都赚得很好。我认为那些以当前价格买入的人也会如此。
贝基·奎克
那压力呢?有没有可能面临压力?
查理·芒格
我认为未来不会像过去那么好,但考虑到其他所有东西都会表现得多糟糕,它还是可以的。
贝基·奎克
你为什么觉得其他所有东西都会表现得很糟糕?
查理·芒格
因为现在估值起点更高,而且政府对商业如此敌视。
贝基·奎克
这是对未来 5 年、10 年、20 年的看法?你想得多远?
查理·芒格
我想说,它自然会在不同政府任期之间波动,等等。但我认为,从根本上说,在大型民主国家,世界文化会变得越来越反商业。而且我认为税收会上升,而不是下降。
所以我认为投资世界对每个人都会变得更难。而且——但过去投资阶层赚钱几乎太容易了。出现一个变得更难的时期是自然的。我不太担心,因为我要死了。这不会太困扰我……
贝基·奎克
我想,你是想对人们指出你 99 岁了。没人能长生不老,你是在说这个吧?你现在没生病……
查理·芒格
是的,99,对吧?
贝基·奎克
你现在没生病,对吧?
查理·芒格
没有,我在吃这个好吃的花生脆糖。如果你想活到 99 岁,这就是该做的事。
贝基·奎克
我们确实收到一些人写信问关于……
查理·芒格
我讨厌给自己产品打广告,但这是长寿的秘诀。
贝基·奎克
他吃花生脆糖,我看到了。我先前看到那个盒子了。我们确实收到很多人写信提问,只是问你的日常习惯是什么,你每天做什么,你锻炼吗,你觉得年轻时多锻炼对长寿重要吗?
Charles Munger Well, there's no question about the fact that he sympathizes with the employees more, and that's understandable. And a lot of people would have the President's orientation on that issue. And I don't have a big opinion about how well thought it'd be distributed in the country. I think -- I don't know the answer. I do think we need a capitalistic system if we want to have a productive economy to make some of these in advance. Rebecca Quick All right. The next question comes in from Michael, and I think his last name is [ Masso ], but I'm going based on the address from the e-mail and not his given last name. He says he's a very long-time Berkshire shareowner who read an irritating recent Barron's article that stated Berkshire shareowners could benefit after Warren as the company could come under pressure to break up. I don't see how we would benefit with our businesses being broken up. As you and Warren have long stated, the company as a whole is stronger than -- and one division could always aid another division in need. He said he knows Warren and you, Charlie, have said that the current structure and philosophies will be preserved after your departures. And I hope for a very -I hope not for a very long time. However, please offer us shareowners reassurance that the company would never succumb to these silly pressures to break it up. Charles Munger Well, I don't think it's at all likely that we're broken up for a long, long time. A lot of companies are worth more dead than alive, meaning at the current price for whole businesses, you could sell things at higher prices. You can only do it once. The shareholders will pay a big tax then you have the problem of what to do with the money and forth. I think all factors considered and with Berkshire buying in its own shares when they are reasonably priced, I think Berkshire's a pretty damn good bet for shareholders as a whole of long term in the future. And I don't think it's any hardship. It isn't being broken up. It works pretty damn well. Everybody that bought Berkshire and held it for 20 years has done well. I think that will be true for those who buy at the current price. Rebecca Quick What about the potential for pressure? Charles Munger I don't think it will be as good in the future as it was in the past, but it will be okay considering how poorly everything else is going to do. Rebecca Quick Why do you think everything else is going to do so poorly? Charles Munger Because the valuations start higher now and because government is so hostile to business. Rebecca Quick And that's a view over the next 5, 10, 20 years? How far out are you thinking? Charles Munger I would say it will fluctuate naturally between administrations and so on. But I think basically, the culture of the world will become more and more antibusiness in the big democracies. And I think taxes will go up, not down. So I think the investment world is going to get harder for everybody. And -but it's been almost too easy in the past for the investment class. It's natural that it would have a period of getting harder. I don't worry about it much because I'm going to be dead. It won't bother me very much... Rebecca Quick I guess, you want to point out to people you're 99. Nobody lives forever, and that's what you're referring to? You're not sick at the moment... Charles Munger Yes, 99, right? Rebecca Quick You're not sick at the moment, right? Charles Munger No, I'm eating this good peanut brittle. That's what you want to do if you want to live to be 99. Rebecca Quick We did get some people who wrote in asking about what... Charles Munger I hate to advertise my own product, but this is the key to longevity. Rebecca Quick He eats peanut brittle, I can see. I saw the box earlier. We did get a lot of people who wrote in questions just asking what your daily habits are, what you do every day, if you exercise, if you think exercising a lot when you're younger is important to longevity? Charles Munger
嗯,这个嘛——我几乎不锻炼,除非当年陆军航空队逼着我练。我这辈子,从来没刻意锻炼过。要是某项活动能让我乐在其中,比如挖隧道,那我倒愿意动一动。但头 99 年,我一点不练也照样过来了。
贝基·奎克:
而且您也没打算很快改变这个习惯?
查理·芒格:
不,不,我可没打算改。
史蒂文·迈希尔-琼斯:
不过,其他人情况可能不一样,因人而异。
贝基·奎克:
我在找一个人写的问题,想把它念准。这问题跟你们刚才聊的有点关系。不知道能不能找着。这里问题太多了。嗯,在这儿。有人问,是澳大利亚的 [ Adi Gon ] 提的。您生命中第 100 天会是什么样?您早上起床后,打算怎么过这一天?
查理·芒格:
嗯,我现在早上起床,就坐到轮椅里了。所以我为年迈付出了一些代价。但我觉得这总比死了强。每当我坐在轮椅上感到沮丧时,就会想到罗斯福总统,他坐在轮椅上治理了整整一个国家 12 年。所以,我正尽力让这把轮椅坐得跟罗斯福一样久。
Well, that's a very -- I have almost no exercise, except when the Army Air Corps made me do exercise. I've done almost no exercise on purpose in my life. If I enjoyed the activity like tunnels, I would exercise. But for the first 99 years, I've gotten by without doing any exercise at all. Rebecca Quick And you're not planning on changing that anytime soon? Charles Munger No, no, I'm not changing it. Steven Myhill-Jones Other people's mileage may vary, yes. Rebecca Quick I'm looking for one question that somebody wrote in because I want to word it properly, and it has to do with what you've just been talking about. I don't know if I can find it. There's a lot of questions in here. No, here it is. Somebody said, and this came from [ Adi Gon ] in Australia. What would the 100th day of your life look like? And how would you want to spend it when you step out of bed in the morning? Charles Munger Well, I step out of my bed these days and sit down in my wheelchair. So I am paying some price for old age. But I prefer it to being dead. And whenever I feel sad of -- in a wheelchair, I think Roosevelt ran the whole damn country for 12 years in a wheelchair. So I'm just trying to make this wheelchair thing last as long as Roosevelt did. Rebecca Quick
这个主意不错。我喜欢。另一位署名 [ Adam Mead ] 的人写信来说:“查理,在你 1995 年那次关于误判心理学的演讲中,你把衰老列为误判的一个原因。”你说:“像我这样的老年人,不用刻意练习就相当擅长掩饰与年龄相关的衰退,因为社会习俗——比如衣着——掩盖了很多退步。”你接着说,这种衰退是不可避免的。他说:“查理,你是我的偶像,我怀着最大的敬意提出这个问题,但觉得有必要问一问。71 岁的查理会不会信任 99 岁查理的判断力和心智能力?”
查理·芒格:嗯,毫无疑问,随着年龄增长,你的心智敏锐度确实会下降。但有些人能更精明地适应自己的局限,做得相当不错。目前来说,我已经衰退了不少,但我在处理这件事的方式上相当精明。到目前为止,我晚年取得的成绩还不算太糟。
贝基·奎克:作为证据……
查理·芒格:我的性生活就是另一回事了。
贝基·奎克:好吧,我要向各位指出,我们事先没有向你们透露过任何这些问题。所以你们是在接受盲问。
查理·芒格:是的,没关系。
贝基·奎克:
That's a good plan. I like it. Somebody else wrote in, this is [ Adam Mead ], and he said, "Charlie, in your 1995 talk, the psychology of misjudgment, you listed senescence as a cause of misjudgment." You said, "Old people like me get pretty skilled without working on it at disguising age-related deterioration because social convention like clothing hides much decline." You went on to say that such decline was inevitable. He says, "You're my hero, Charlie, and I offer you this question with the utmost respect, but feel it needs to be asked. Would 71-year-old Charlie trust the judgment and mental capacity of 99-year-old Charlie?" Charles Munger Well, there's no question about the fact that you lose some mental acuity as you get older. But some people get shrewder at adapting to their limitations, and they do pretty well. And so far, I've had plenty of decline, but I'm pretty shrewd about the way I handle it. And so far, the results have not been that bad in my old age. Rebecca Quick As evidence... Charles Munger My s**life would be a different subject. Rebecca Quick Well, I will point out to people we have not given you any of these questions in advance. So you're taking blind questions. Charles Munger Yes, that's all right. Rebecca Quick
是的,在很长一段时间里都是如此。好吧,我该怎么接这个话茬?
再问一个问题。这又回到我们刚才聊的投资话题,但迈克尔 [听不清] 写信问:“在利率不断上升的环境下,从接近零利率政策转向会带来什么影响?沃伦和你经常引用【伊索】和‘双鸟在林,不如一鸟在手’来描述投资决策的本质。那么现在利率环境变了,你们怎么办?”
查理·芒格
毫无疑问,利率确实已经上涨了。这对股价不利——但利率本来就该涨。我们不可能永远维持零利率。我只是觉得,这只是投资生涯中又一个需要适应的麻烦事罢了,投资路上有顺风也有逆风。其中一个逆风就是通胀。而我认为,未来 100 年里,考虑到民主政治的——民主体制中政治的本质——更多通胀是不可避免的。所以我觉得我们会经历更多通胀。这也是《每日日报》持有证券而不是政府债券——持有普通股而不是政府债券——的原因之一。
贝基·奎克
你说到民主政策的本质时,我记不清你具体是怎么措辞的。你是在说民主党吗?还是说广义的民主制度?
查理·芒格
不,不。我说的是——特朗普的赤字比民主党人还大。所有民主——民主体制下所有政客都倾向于印钱然后花掉。长此以往,这就会引发一定程度的通胀。这也许能避免几次经济衰退。也未必全是坏事。
Yes. For a large stretch of time on this, too. Okay. How do I follow that up? Just another question. This gets back to the investing what we were just talking about a minute ago, but Michael [indiscernible] writes in and says, "Given the increasing rate environment, what are the ramifications of moving away from a close to zero interest rate policy? Warren and yourself have frequently spoken about [ Aesop ] and a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush to describe the essence of investment decision-making. So what do you do now that the interest rate environment is changing?" Charles Munger Well, there's no question about the fact that the interest rates have gone up. It's hostile to stock prices. And -- but they should go up. We couldn't have kept them forever at 0. And I just think this is one more damn thing to adapt to in investment life as that there are headwinds and there are tailwinds. And one of the headwinds is inflation. And I think more inflation over the next 100 years is inevitable with -- given the nature of democratic politics -politics in a democracy. So I think we'll have more inflation. That's one of the reasons the Daily Journal owns securities instead of government bonds -owns common stock instead of government bonds. Rebecca Quick When you say the nature of democratic policies, and I forget exactly how you worded it. Are you talking about the Democratic party? Are you talking about democracy as a whole? Charles Munger No, no. I'm talking about -- Trump ran a deficit that was bigger than the Democrats did. All democratic -- all politicians in a democracy tend to be in favor of printing the money and spending it. And that will cause some inflation over time. It may avoid a few recessions, too. It may not be all bad.
但我觉得,从现在开始,这样做弊大于利。
贝基·奎克
好。关于这一点,[罗恩·特雷罗托拉] 问:“我们是否应该继续维持债务上限?调整过程看起来是一个非常简单的机械过程。然而,这种做法似乎只会制造一个充满政治博弈和相互攻击的环境。如果我们继续入不敷出地做预算,等到账单到期时,那还有什么意义呢?”
查理·芒格
嗯,如果你回顾世界历史上民主制度的历程,追溯到足够久远,你会发现它失败了很多次,之后被独裁政权和各种可怕的事情所取代。事实上,在我一生中,人类遇到的最糟糕的事情,就是像德国这样一个先进的文明,被像阿道夫·希特勒那样可怕的独裁者接管了。
那是全球性大萧条的结果。如果没有那次大萧条,这一切根本不会发生。而一旦希特勒上台,就意味着第二次世界大战不可避免。对美国这类国家来说,那场战争的结果本可能比实际糟糕得多。
所以这些事情相当重要。未来它们不会处理得十全十美,就像过去从来也没有完美过一样。所以,当然,你得预料到世界上未来会有一定数量的麻烦,你的政府也会做一些不那么正确的事。
另一方面,我会辩称,美国政府有一些事情做得极其正确。我在很多场合都说过,让我对自己的政府最感到骄傲的一点,就是我们处理二战后续的方式。
我们没有惩罚德国人和日本人,而是把他们变成了我们在世界上最好的朋友。这真是一种高超的举措。能做到这一点,是我们国家的荣耀。而且这是在两党合作的基础上实现的。我认为我们都可以为此感到骄傲。这是一件明智的事。这需要一些慷慨。我们必须拿出一些自己的钱来帮助他们重建。
那次我们表现得那么好,是我们这个物种的光荣。我不认为我们未来的行为会缺乏类似的可圈可点之处。
贝基·奎克
会缺乏类似的可圈可点之处,还是……
查理·芒格
我们会做一些非常正确的事,也会做一些非常错误的事。事情就是这样。
贝基·奎克
是的。这很像丘吉尔的风格,对吧?我们会尝试一切——所有错误的方法,直到我们找到正确的方法。
查理·芒格
不,在你能预见的未来,我会继续既做错事,也做对事。
贝基·奎克
查理,[听不清]从芝加哥来信,想知道您是否认为我们可能会像 70 年代沃尔克接手美联储之前那样,经历一波又一波的通货膨胀。
查理·芒格
But it will do more harm than good, I think, from this point forward. Rebecca Quick Okay. On that point, [ Ron Trerotola ] says, "Should we continue to maintain a debt limit? The adjustment process seems to be a very simple and mechanical process. However, such a measure only seems to create an environment rife with political jockeying and sniping. What's the purpose if we continue to budget beyond our means and then the bill comes due? Charles Munger Well, if you take the history of democracy in the world and go back far enough, it fails a lot and gets succeeded by dictatorships and all kinds of awful things. And as a matter of fact, the worst thing that happened to the human race in my lifetime was an advanced civilization like Germany was taken over by a dictator as awful as Adolf Hitler. That happened as a consequence of a big worldwide depression. It would never have happened if we hadn't had the Big Depression. And once Hitler got in, that meant World War II was inevitable. And that could have worked out a lot worse than it did for the people like the United States. So these things are quite important. And they're not going to be done perfectly in the future, no more than they were done perfectly in the past. So of course, you've got to expect a certain amount of future trouble in the world, and your government is going to do some things that aren't exactly right. On the other hand, I would argue that the U.S. government did some things magnificently right. I said on many occasions that the thing that makes me proudest of my own government is the way we handled the sequel to World War II. Instead of punishing the Germans and the Japanese, we made them into some of our best friends on earth. Now that was a stunt. And it was to the credit of our country that, that was done. And it was done on a bipartisan basis. And I think we can all be proud of that. That was a smart thing to do. It took some generosity. We had to give up some of our money to help them rebuild. And it was a credit to our species that we behaved that well on that occasion. And I don't think our future behavior will lack similar episodes of some kind. Rebecca Quick Will lack similar episodes or... Charles Munger We'll do some things very right and some things very wrong. That's the way it happens. Rebecca Quick Yes. That's very Churchill-esque, right? We'll try everything -- all the wrong things until we do the right thing. Charles Munger No, I will keep doing both wrong and right as far ahead as you can see. Rebecca Quick Charlie, [indiscernible] writes in from Chicago and wants to know if you think we might have on and off waves of inflation like we did prior to when Volcker stepped in at the Fed in 70s era. Charles Munger
当然,未来还会发生一些。是的,我认为未来我们会有一些这样的情况。
贝基·奎克:你认为杰伊·鲍威尔眼下处理的事情,会立刻引发这种情况吗?
查理·芒格:我不认为自己——我自认在长期预期方面比较擅长,但在短期波动方面并不在行。我对短期内会发生什么一无所知。
贝基·奎克:好的。那我接着问一个类似的问题,你可能也不想回答,但 [Jake Polard] 问:“你对杰伊·鲍威尔有信心吗?你预计会实现软着陆吗?”
查理·芒格:我对杰伊·鲍威尔的看法是,我觉得他已经好到我们理应期望的程度了。我认为他正直、聪明,在尽自己最大努力。我不觉得我知道有谁能做得比他好得多。所以我很高兴有他。
贝基·奎克:查理,另一个问题来自宾夕法尼亚州费城的 [Chris Fried]。他说:“你曾推荐普通投资者使用指数基金。随着这些指数基金的规模不断扩大,它们对公司董事会乃至最终管理层的影响力也在日益增强。这种投票权集中在少数几家指数基金手中的现象让我感到担忧。你是否也认为这种集中令人担忧?你会建议进行哪些改革来解决这个问题?”
查理·芒格:当然,这是一个非常严重的问题,因为这涉及巨大的权力。有一段时间,这些指数基金觉得自己突然被赋予了上帝般的权力来净化世界。但——先锋集团已经从那项政策中退却了,我认为这是明智之举。我有些希望拉里·芬克也能跟进。我不认为这些指数基金仅仅因为是指数基金,就去试图影响国家的政策和政治是明智的。我认为它们应该满足于消除投资管理中的一些愚蠢行为,为客户提供更好的服务,我认为它们在这方面做得很好。它们应该对此感到满意,而不是试图以公司治理的名义来管理整个该死的国家。我不认为先锋集团或拉里·芬克的机构里有人对美国公司应该如何运营有什么特殊的天才见解。就他们要求伯克希尔如何如何这一点,我希望他们停下来。
贝基·奎克:要求伯克希尔做什么?哦,按照他们的指导行事。
查理·芒格:我的意思是,我对他们关于伯克希尔应该如何运作的看法根本不感兴趣。
贝基·奎克:好的。下一个问题来自德国的股票分析师 [Carsten Fetteroff]。他的问题是,股权激励是许多公司流行的激励补偿方式。在某些情况下,这些激励的规模达到了惊人的程度。感觉各公司都在竞相出价。在一些公司,销售额的 20% 都用于股权激励。你如何看待近年来的这一发展?什么是过高的水平——什么是健康的激励水平?
查理·芒格:嗯,我认为你会在美国公司中看到非常好的激励体系,也有过于慷慨的,还有过于吝啬的。人性本就如此,千姿百态,你还期待什么呢?我同意其中一些——在许多公司里,每个人都会投票支持被允许实行股权激励。他们在计算收益时不计入这部分成本。他们只是想用任何该死的方法让收益看起来更高。这只是人性使然。当然,他们想要——就像小孩子去上学一样。他们想带回家好成绩,而不是坏成绩。所以,当然,在一些地方存在公司过度支付的大问题。在其他地方,比如好市多,我认为它的补偿制度近乎完美。而且——那里也有相当数量的股票。但我们总是买入足够的好市多股票来支付我们正在发行的股票。许多高科技公司,他们发行股票但不回购,所以是净稀释。我认为美国的薪酬体系有很多问题——但为什么不该有呢?
贝基·奎克:是的。
查理·芒格:顺便说一句,我年轻时,情况还没那么糟。
Of course, it will happen some in the future. Yes, I think we'll have some of that in the future. Rebecca Quick Do you think we'll have it immediately right now with what Jay Powell is dealing with? Charles Munger I don't regard myself -- I think I'm pretty good at long run expectations, but I don't think I'm good at short-term wobbles. I don't have the faintest idea what's going to happen short term. Rebecca Quick Okay. Well, let me ask this one as a follow-up. It's similar, and you may not want to answer this one either, but [ Jake Polard ] says, "Do you have faith in Jay Powell? Are you expecting a soft landing?" Charles Munger Well, the way I feel about Jay Powell is that I feel he's about as good as we have any right to expect. I think he's honorable and intelligent doing the best he can. And I have no feeling that I know a lot of people who'd do it a lot better. So I'm glad we have him. Rebecca Quick Charlie, another question comes in from [ Chris Fried ] of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. He says, "You've recommended the use of an index fund for the average investor. As these index funds continue to expand in size, their influence on corporate boards and ultimately management is ever increasing. This concentration of voting in the hands of a few index funds is alarming to me. Do you see this concentration as alarming as well? And what reforms would you suggest to address that issue?" Charles Munger Well, of course, it's a very serious issue because it's an enormous amount of power. And for a while, these index funds got the feeling they were suddenly made God-like to clean up the world. And -- but Vanguard has retreated from that policy and I think wisely so. And I have some hope that Larry Fink will follow. I don't think it's smart for these index funds to try and influence the policy and politics of the country just because they're an index fund. I think they should be satisfied to eliminate some of the folly from investment management and do a better job for their clients, which I think they do very well. And I think they should be pleased with that and not try and run the whole damn country as a matter of corporate governance. I have no feeling that anybody at Vanguard or Larry Fink's operation has any special genius at how American corporations ought to be run. And to the extent they ask Berkshire who is that, I wish they'd stop. Rebecca Quick Ask Berkshire to do what? Oh, to follow their guidance. Charles Munger I mean, I'm just not interested in their view as to how Berkshire should behave. Rebecca Quick All right. This next question comes from [ Carsten Fetteroff ], who is an equity analyst from Germany. And his question is stock-based compensation is a popular means of incentive compensation in many companies. In some cases, these take on alarming proportions. It feels like companies are competing to outbid each other. In some companies, 20% of sales are paid out in stock-based compensation. How do you perceive this development in recent years? And what's a heavy -- what's a healthy level of incentives? Charles Munger Well, I think you will find in American corporations very good incentive systems and others that are too liberal and others that are too niggardly. And what else would you expect in human nature with a certain amount of variety. And I agree that some of this -- in many a corporation, everybody would vote to being allowed to have stock-based compensation. You didn't count it in computing the earnings. They just want any damn way of making the earnings appear higher. It's just human nature. Of course, they want their -- it's like little kid goes off to school. They want to bring him good grades, not bad grades. And so sure, there's a big problem of excess corporation paying in some places. Other places like Costco, I would say the compensation system is damn near perfect. It's -and there's a fair amount of stock. But we always buy in enough stock in Costco to pay for the stock we're issuing. A lot of people in high tech, they issue the stock and they don't buy it in, so it's a net dilution. I think there's a lot that's wrong in American compensation systems and -- but why wouldn't there be? Rebecca Quick Yes. Charles Munger By the way, when I was young, it wasn't so bad. Rebecca Quick
为什么?
查理·芒格
这是过去 50 年才发生的事情。我也不太清楚。就是历史自然形成的,早期那种开拓精神更强,日子更苦,反正我年轻的时候,没人抱怨高管薪酬。
现在说实话,投资界的很多人觉得,很多情况下高管薪酬确实太高了。拿通用电气鼎盛时期来说吧。想想那些巨额薪酬包。他们付那么多——再想想他们怎么通过虚报利润之类的手段来支撑这个薪酬体系。真是恶心。
当然,如果这种狗屁东西在我们文明的每个角落都蔓延开来,这个文明就会消亡。我们需要更多的荣誉感,而不是更少。但——对于如何解决薪酬过高的地方,我没有任何建议。这是个难题,真的很难。
贝基·奎克
[ 杰弗里·梅洛伊 ] 来信提了这个问题。他来自旧金山。他说:“你认为埃隆·马斯克拥有推特,特别是他对内容审查不干预的做法,对美国社会是好还是坏?”
查理·芒格
嗯,我不使用推特。所以我对这个话题没什么发言权。我对埃隆·马斯克的态度是——他是个非常有才华的人,但也与众不同,所以我既不买他的股票,也不做空。我只是说:“好吧,他是个非常特别的人。”
Why? Charles Munger This is something that's happened in the last 50 years. I don't know. It's just the history of the way things came up and greater hardship in the pioneering ethos or whatever it was, when I was young, nobody complained about executive compensation. Now frankly, everybody in the investment world thinks in many cases, executive compensation has gotten too high. Take General Electric in its heyday. Think of all the big compensation packages. They pay -- then think of how they were phoning up the earnings and so forth to pay for it. It was disgusting. And of course, if that kind of c*** creeps in everywhere in our civilization, the civilization will perish. We need more honor, not less. And -- but I have no suggestion as to how to fix the places where it's excessive. It's a difficult issue, really difficult. Rebecca Quick [ Jeffrey Meloy ] writes in, and asks this question. He's from San Francisco. He says, "Do you think Elon Musk's ownership of Twitter, specifically his hands-off approach to content moderation is good or bad for American society?" Charles Munger Well, I don't use Twitter. So I'm not a good judge on that subject. And my policy and Elon Musk is -- he's a very talented man but also peculiar and so I. I don't buy them, and I don't sell them short. I just say, "well, he's a very usual person." Rebecca Quick
您上次提到他时说了不少好话,还讲了他对 特斯拉 的贡献。
查理·芒格
哦,简直不可思议。除了 比亚迪,还有谁做到了?这正说明了资本主义有多残酷。就算你像马斯克那样在某些方面是个天才,总会冒出个小小的比亚迪,干得比你更出色。资本主义可不容易。
贝基·奎克
好的。这个问题来自加州科斯塔梅萨的 杰里米·萨尔茨贝格。他问:“查理,去年 2022 年,密苏里州一家法院裁定 伯克希尔 子公司 GEICO 向一名受害者赔偿 520 万美元,起因是一名女性在 GEICO 汽车保险承保的车辆内感染了性传播疾病。索赔人称,那名男子疏忽大意,没有告知她自己的健康状况。您的祖父是法官,您也有法律背景。密苏里州法院的这项判决正确吗?”
查理·芒格
嗯,我自己倒不会质疑它。但世间之事,不可能每个法庭的每个裁决、每个判决都是对的。而且我确实认为,允许——再说一次,你提了个非常棘手的话题。
你偶尔会碰到完全荒谬的判决,这不可避免。当然,这就是上诉法院存在的意义,但有时候上诉法院对那些荒唐的判决却非常同情。
再说一次,我无法纠正你人生中所有的不公,包括一些荒唐的判决。
贝基·奎克
You said some nice things about him in the last time I talked to you and what he's done with Tesla. Charles Munger Oh, it's unbelievable. Who else has done it except BYD? It just shows how tough capitalism is. Even if you're a genius like Musk is in some ways, there's always some little BYD that comes out and does better. Capitalism is not easy. Rebecca Quick All right. This question came in from [ Jeremy Saltzberg ] in Costa Mesa, California. He says, "Charlie, last year in 2022, a Missouri Court awarded a victim $5.2 million in compensation from Berkshire subsidiary, GEICO, after a woman was infected with an STD in a car that was insured by GEICO auto insurance. The claimant says that the man was negligent and didn't tell her about his health diagnosis. Your grandfather was a judge, and you have a background in law. Did the Missouri court get this verdict right?" Charles Munger Well, I wouldn't doubt it myself. But it's in the nature of things that not every court is going to be right in every verdict for every judgment. And I do think that allowing -- again, you raised a very tough subject. You will get occasional verdicts that are just totally outrageous, and that's inevitable. And of course, that's what appellate courts are for, but sometimes the appellate courts are very sympathetic with crazy verdicts. Again, I can't fix everything that's wrong with you in life, including a few crazy verdicts. Rebecca Quick
不过,你会把那个归入疯狂判决的范畴吧?
查理·芒格:是的,当然。
贝基·奎克:这个问题来自 [ Stephane Armand ],他从多伦多发来提问。伯克希尔与 3G 在卡夫亨氏交易上的关系曾引起广泛关注。经历了那次合作之后,你对私募股权行业的看法是否有所改变?
查理·芒格:嗯,和地球上的其他所有人一样,3G 有些交易做得比另一些好。是的。他们当然希望能回到过去,把所有糟糕的交易都变成好交易。伯克希尔也希望有同样的选择权。我们也没能如愿。
平均来看,3G 做得相当不错。但最近几年,他们的某些做法——他们的策略在近年来的效果不如理想中那么好。再次强调,回到人类生活中来,这事情没那么简单。
贝基·奎克:[ Art Presser ] 来信说:“佛罗里达州州长和立法机构最近采取立场,试图控制迪士尼此前在创始人沃尔特·迪士尼领导下在佛罗里达设立的独家自治权。考虑到您的机构——我猜这里指的是 DJCO ——仍然持有迪士尼股票,在这样的背景下,您认为迪士尼股票仍然是一笔好投资吗?”
查理·芒格:我们从未持有过迪士尼股票。
You'd put that in the category of a crazy verdict, though? Charles Munger Yes, sure. Rebecca Quick This question comes from [ Stephane Armand ], who is writing in from Toronto. There was a lot of excitement about the relationship between Berkshire and 3G for the Kraft Heinz transaction. Has your perception of the private equity business changed on the back of that partnership? Charles Munger Well, like every other human being on earth, some deals work out better than others for 3G. Yes. They would love to have a way of going back and turning all their bad deals into good deals. Berkshire would like to have the same option. We don't get it either. Average out, 3G did pretty well. But recently, they've had some -- their approach hasn't worked as well in recent years as would be ideal. Again, well coming to human life, it isn't so damn easy. Rebecca Quick [ Art Presser ] writes in and says, "The Florida governor and legislative body has recently taken a stand to try and control Disney's exclusive selfgoverning authority previously set up in Florida under the founder, Walt Disney. As your organization, and I guess, by this I mean, DJCO still owns Disney shares, you think Disney shares are still a good investment given this backdrop? Charles Munger We've never owned Disney shares.
瑞贝卡·奎克
那是我搞错了。
查理·芒格
你自己的问题,不。但迪士尼是个很有意思的案例。迪士尼几乎每项业务都比过去难做了。还是那句话,欢迎来到人间。想想迪士尼曾经拥有整个世界。《狮子王》在纽约百老汇长演不衰。他们从一个胜利走向另一个胜利,一路高歌猛进。
突然间,几乎在每个领域,日子都更难了。事情就是这样。想象一下柯达,它曾完全主宰了全球摄影行业,结果他们发明了这项新技术,柯达却把普通股股东给消灭了。
瑞贝卡·奎克
你觉得迪士尼会走上同样的路吗?还是说你觉得他们能转型成功?我是说,我知道你一直在密切跟踪这家公司。
查理·芒格
不,不。我认为迪士尼手里还有很多资产。但手头有东西让你不痛快——这么说吧,跟当年鼎盛时期比,你现在愿意去管迪士尼的体育板块、ESPN 吗?对他们来说,难度会大得多。
瑞贝卡·奎克
但今年股价涨了呀。
查理·芒格
电影这块在我看来也一样要血流成河。所以这不是什么轻松的买卖。ESPN 鼎盛时期,日子轻松得很,迪士尼从 ESPN 身上赚到的全是钱,那简直就是一座金矿。
瑞贝卡·奎克
那其他电影公司呢?我想到了派拉蒙,伯克希尔最近是不是成了它的大股东?
查理·芒格
我住的地方离派拉蒙影城也就几个街区。可我根本都不认识派拉蒙的任何人。我这辈子当投资者,一直是像躲瘟疫一样躲着电影行业。我从来没有以任何方式、任何形态、任何形式在电影业做过投资。这行从来都是让你[听不清]。
我不喜欢那些工会。我不喜欢那些疯狂的经纪人。我不喜欢那些疯狂的律师。我不喜欢那些疯狂的电影明星。我不喜欢那些给乐手卖毒品的人。这行的一切都和我的文化格格不入。
我喜欢那些老派的英国演员,他们变老了。我是看着他们的戏长大的。但——说到底,电影不是我的菜。所以我一直避开它。这行对投钱的人来说一直很难。当演员、当编剧、当乐手,或许是个能谋生的好地方。但作为一个投资者,要在那里面赚钱可不容易。
瑞贝卡·奎克
这个问题挺有意思。来自密尔沃基的 [ Eric Howe ],他问:“自您出生以来,世界人口据信增长了四倍多。注意,我不是要您个人为此负责,但增长就是达到了那个量级。是否存在一个临界点,人类面临的最大生存威胁就是人口增长和人类自身?如果存在,我们该如何判断那个临界点何时到来?”
查理·芒格
Rebecca Quick That's my mistake then. Charles Munger Your own, no. But Disney is an interesting case. Practically every business that Disney has, has gotten tougher than it used to be. Again, welcome to human life. Think about Disney once owned the world. Lion King was running a long run on the Theater District of New York. They went from triumph to triumph, marching, marching, marching. All of a sudden, practically every front, it's more difficult. This is what happened. Imagine Kodak, which totally dominated photography in the world, and they invented this new technology, Kodak wiped out its common shareholders. Rebecca Quick Do you think Disney is headed down the same path? Or do you think that they'll be able to pivot? I mean, I know you followed the company closely. Charles Munger No, no. I think Disney has a lot of assets in it. But it's unpleasant to have something -- how would you like running the sports, ESPN now at Disney compared to its heyday? It's going to be way harder for them. Rebecca Quick The stock is up this year. Charles Munger Movies look to me like it's going to be a blood bath, too. So it's not a bed easy. It was easy in the heyday of ESPN, Disney made nothing but money out of ESPN. It was a total gold mine. Rebecca Quick What about other movie businesses? I'm thinking of Paramount, which is a huge holding that Berkshire now owns recent? Charles Munger I live within a few blocks of Paramount Studios. And I don't even know anybody at Paramount. I have avoided the movies like the plague as an investor all my life. I've never made an investment in the movie business in any way, shape, manner or form. It always gives you [indiscernible]. I don't like the unions. I don't like the crazy agents. I don't like the crazy lawyers. I don't like the crazy movie stars. I don't like the people who sell dope to the musicians. Everything about it is not my culture. I like those old English actors who became old. I grew up with them. And -but basically, movies is not my scene. So I avoided it. It's always been very hard for the people to put up the money. It may be a very good place to make a living as an actor or a writer or something or a musician. But it's a hard place to make money if you're an investor. Rebecca Quick This one is an interesting question. It came in from [ Eric Howe ] in Milwaukee, who says, "The population of the world is thought to have increased by more than fourfold time since you were born. Mind you, I'm not holding you personally responsible, but there has been that magnitude of growth. Is there a point where the biggest existential threat to humanity is the growth of the population and humanity? If so, how do we discern when that point has arrived?" Charles Munger
嗯,这是个有趣的话题。如果你回顾过去的走势,你会像[保罗·赫里克]那样得出结论:世界正走向一场绝对的人口灾难。但实际发生的情况却完全不同。
实际情况是,随着世界变得越来越繁荣,包括像中国这样的地方,出生率一直在下降、下降、再下降。所以在像日本这样的地方,其实出现了一定程度的人口短缺。那些伟大专家们根据过去图表的推演做出的预测,结果完全错了。现在看来,所有发达国家的人口都会自行受到限制。
贝基·奎克
我的意思是,这让你和埃隆·马斯克站在了同一边。他也提出过类似观点,认为真正的人口萎缩才是对人类更大的威胁。
查理·芒格
就像我说的,他有时候是个聪明人。有时候,也和我们所有人一样。
贝基·奎克
[丹尼·波兰]来信问道:“在评估一家企业管理层的品格和能力时,您犯过错误吗?如果有,是什么时候发生的?您从那次经历中学到了什么?”
查理·芒格
嗯,每个人都会犯错。我一生中发生的最有趣的事情之一,就是 IBM 的崛起和衰落。在我年轻的时候,IBM 是美国最受尊敬的公司。他们从一个胜利走向另一个胜利,势如破竹。但在过去 10 到 15 年里,他们落后了。与同领域的其他公司相比,他们正在退步。
苹果、谷歌这些公司后来居上,IBM 只是——他们有点错过了这趟船。我认为这几乎是不可避免的。柯达也错过了向数码摄影转变的这趟船。而且我听比尔·盖茨说过,这几乎是一条规律:当真正颠覆性的技术出现时,现有企业往往会搞砸它们的应对措施。当你的老路已经成功很久,要转向一个完全不同的行为和思考方式,确实很难。
贝基·奎克
对。这个问题……
查理·芒格
就拿我们《每日邮报》公司来说,我们正在适应新世界——想一想,出版报纸和发明软件记录系统来实现自动化,这两者有多么不同。这是两个截然不同的生意。
贝基·奎克
这个问题来自一位名叫[吉恩]的人,他说:“芒格先生,您认为目前在美国,我们是否存在系统性种族主义?”
查理·芒格
存在什么?
贝基·奎克
系统性种族主义。
Well, that's an interesting subject. If you'd look at the way things have happened in the past, you would have concluded like [ Paul Herrick] did that the world is headed for an absolute population disaster. But what actually has happened is quite different. What's happened is that as the world has gotten more and more prosperous, including in places like China, the birth rate has gone down, down, down. And so there's actually sort of a population shortage in a place like Japan. So the prediction of all the great experts based on extrapolating the past graphs, they turn out to be totally wrong. It now looks all the world's population in the advanced countries will sort of self-limit. Rebecca Quick I mean, that kind of puts you in the same camp with Elon Musk. He has made some of the same arguments that it's really shrinking population that's a bigger threat to humanity. Charles Munger As I said, he's a smart man sometimes. Sometimes, like all the rest of us. Rebecca Quick [ Denny Poland ] writes in and says, "When assessing the character and competence of a business' management, have you ever made a mistake? If so, when did this occur? And what did you learn from the experience?" Charles Munger Well, everybody makes mistakes. And one of the -- actually one of the most interesting things that happened in my lifetime. It was the rise of IBM and the fall of IBM. IBM was the most admired company in America for most of my young life. They just marched from triumph to triumph to triumph. And in the last 10 or 15 years, they've slipped. They're falling back in relation to other people in their field. It's the Apples and the Googles and so forth came ahead, IBM just -- they kind of missed the boat. I think that's almost inevitable. Kodak missed the boat of change to digital photography, too. And I've heard Bill Gates say that it's almost a rule of a really disruptive technology comes along, the incumbent screw up their reaction to it. It's hard to change your ways when they've been successful for a long time and go into a totally different way of behaving and thinking. Rebecca Quick Right. This question... Charles Munger Where we're sitting with Daily Journal Corporation, we're adapting to the new world -- think how different it is publishing in newspaper and being a -inventing software records to automate. These are 2 radically different businesses. Rebecca Quick This question comes in from someone named [ Gene ], who says, "Mr. Munger, do you think that currently in the United States, we have systemic racism?" Charles Munger We have what? Rebecca Quick Systemic racism.
查理·芒格
嗯,我想我们确实有一些。当然,群体之间难免会有一定程度的敌意。这在人类历史上一直存在。不过,我认为在我的一生中,情况已经大大改善了。我会说种族主义已经大幅消退。
贝基·奎克
查理,这个问题来自[尼尔·达斯],他问:“您认为未来 25 年,气候变化会对保险业产生什么影响?如果有的话。”
查理·芒格
嗯,我不确定自己是否擅长回答这类问题。
贝基·奎克
伯克希尔的保险业务有没有在调高费率?
查理·芒格
我不觉得自己特别了解。我认为气候变化的重要性很可能低于所有人想象的。这并不意味着它不重要,但我认为它不会演变到毫无调整可能的彻底恐怖局面。
贝基·奎克
我等着,因为有时候我等着,你会多说几句。我给你点时间……
查理·芒格
不,没事了。
Charles Munger Well, I suppose we've got some, sure. Of course, you're going to have a certain amount of animosity one group towards another. In the whole history of the human race, we've had a certain amount of that. I think it's gotten way better in my lifetime, however. I would argue that racism has gone down a lot. Rebecca Quick Charlie, this question comes in from [ Neil Das ], who says, "What, if any, impact do you think the insurance industry will see because of climate change over the next 25 years?" Charles Munger Well, I'm not sure I am any good answering that kind of a question. Rebecca Quick Are you raising rates in any of the Berkshire insurance? Charles Munger I don't think I know particularly how well. I think there's a good chance that climate change will be less important than all the people think. That doesn't mean it will be unimportant, but I think it won't be an absolute full-blown horror capacity with no possibility to adjust. Rebecca Quick I wait because sometimes when I wait, you say more on things. But I'll give you time to... Charles Munger No, that's all right.
贝基·奎克
好的。我来问一个来自印第安纳大学伯明顿分校的 [Taehee Hwang] 的问题。他说他在给本科生教授个人理财入门和公司理财入门课程。这些学生大多不是金融专业的,这很可能就是他们大学期间唯一的一门金融课。他应该教些什么,才能融入你这么多年来的著作和演讲,让他们打下基础和常识基础,将来能有效处理个人或公司的理财问题?
查理·芒格
嗯,这个问题问得好,因为它是个大问题。如果你有良好的判断力,你的人生会比判断力差的人好过很多。而良好的判断力是随着时间推移逐渐获得的,部分是通过做出错误判断并承受糟糕的后果得来的。
所以我的建议一直是:从现在开始努力变得更好,并持续下去——一辈子都努力改进,你大概有差不多一半的机会。如果你不这么做,那就几乎毫无机会。
所以,这个嘛——我以前说过,我只能教那些几乎已经知道答案的人。然后在他们已经悬在边缘时,再轻轻推他们一把。但如果一个人离入门都还差着十万八千里,我从来就没成功过。在消除愚蠢这件事上,我百分之百……(听不清)我从没成功过。
贝基·奎克
你会往哪个方向推动呢?如果你面对的是一教室的大学金融专业学生,也许有哪些……几堂课……
查理·芒格
Rebecca Quick Okay. Let me get to this question from [ Taehee Hwang ]. He says that he's teaching the introduction of personal finance and the introduction of corporate finance to undergraduates at Indiana University in Bloomington. Most of the students are nonfinance majors, and this will likely be the only finance class that they take in college. What should he teach them, incorporating as many writings and speeches that you've given over the years so that they have the foundations and common sense to effectively deal with their personal or corporate finance problems later in life? Charles Munger Well, that's a good question because it's a big question. And if you have good judgment, your life will work a lot better than if you have bad judgment. And you get good judgment gradually over time, partly by making bad judgments and having them work out poorly. So my counsel has always been to start trying to be better and keep doing -keep trying to improve all your life, and you got about half a chance. If you don't do that, you got like no chance. And so it's -- I used to say I could only teach what the other person almost knows. Then I can just throw him over of the brink when he's hanging on the edge. But if the guy is not within miles of even starting, I never make any public. I never succeed. So in removing idiocy, I have a 100% [indiscernible]. I've never succeeded. Rebecca Quick What would you push in that direction? If you've got a class full of finance students in college, maybe what are the -- a few lessons... Charles Munger
我会教那些学得进去的人,跟不上的其他人则——(听不清)这不是——我不相信要拿头去撞墙。顺便说一句,大多数教育就是这么运作的:他们只是把跟不上的人淘汰掉。我能告诉你,实际情况就是如此。这就是为什么顶尖那部分人会变得如此出色。我昨天在 Zoom 上跟一位名校的法学教授聊过。天哪,这家伙真令人敬佩,聪明绝顶,头脑极其平衡。但他是在世界顶尖法学院之一任教的资深法学教授。所以我本来就预期他水平不错,可他还不止是不错,他简直了不起。我心想,天哪,学术界竞争真激烈。到了顶尖层面,好学校的教授们,你会发现一些非常杰出的人物。但——但他们能取得的成就是有上限的。他们之所以能培养出如此优秀的人,原因之一是他们招收进来的人本身就非常优秀。这就是他们的秘诀。他们改变不了那些(听不清)——没人能改变。
贝基·奎克:严厉的爱。
查理·芒格:有句老话说,愚蠢是永恒的。
贝基·奎克:愚蠢和钻石。亚历杭德罗·萨尔塞多来信说:“我读过许多企业家和名人的话,他们总是说你必须有真正远大的梦想。而查理,你却说幸福生活的秘诀是低预期。您能详细谈谈吗?”
I would teach the people who can learn, and the others who couldn't keep up [indiscernible] It can't be [indiscernible], just -- I don't believe in butting my head against the wall. And that, by the way, that's the way most education works. They just throw out those who can't keep up. That's the way I can name you it works. That's the reason it gets so good at the top. I talked yesterday on Zoom with a law professor at a great place. My God, this is an admirable guy, and he's just so God damn smart, balances are incredible. But he's a very senior law teacher at one of the great law schools of the world. So I would expect him to be pretty good, but he was more than pretty good. He was awesome, and I thought, my God, academia is quite competitive. By the time you get to the top, the professors at a good place, you find some very remarkable people. And -- but what -- but they can't -- there's a limit to what they can accomplish. One of the reasons that they turn out such good people is they take in such good people. That's their secret. They can't fix the [indiscernible]. Nobody can. Rebecca Quick Tough love. Charles Munger There's an old saying, dumb is forever. Rebecca Quick Dumb and diamonds. [ Alejandro Salcedo ] writes in, he says, "Reading many entrepreneurs and famous people, they always say that you have to dream really big. Instead, you say, Charlie, that the secret to a happy life is having low expectations. Could you please expand on that?"
查理·芒格
嗯,是啊,你只能一次前进一英寸,拼尽全力向上爬。
这就是生活的秘诀。总会有那么一两个有点疯的人成功。但——每一个成功的人背后,就有一千个失败的。
丽贝卡·奎克
这也是一种低承诺、高交付的情况吗?
查理·芒格
当然。谁他妈脑子正常,会喜欢到处许一大堆承诺,然后一次又一次兑现不了自己说过的话?所有人都会讨厌你,对吧?
没有比辜负别人合理期望更能让人讨厌你的方式了。所以,你当然要过一种生活,大体上能满足别人合理的期望。这就是文明对我们所有人的要求。
丽贝卡·奎克
查理,有一位来自中国的朋友,名叫[乔·罗登],他说自己是一位中国投资者。他很遗憾今年无法当面见到您。他想问您一个关于疫情期间生活的问题。他说:“我经常给我家里的长辈提些建议,比如避免高温、在家里防止跌倒之类。但疫情期间,特别是中国重新开放之后,我除了让他们待在家里、打疫苗之外,几乎给不了什么建议了。那么,作为一位智慧的长者,您在疫情期间得没得新冠?您是怎么保持健康的?您对这些长辈有什么建议?”
查理·芒格
Charles Munger Well, yes, you climb as hard as you can by just advancing 1 inch at a time. That's the secret of life. And now there's always somebody who's a little nuts and succeeds. But that's -- but for every guy who succeeds, there's 1,000 failures. Rebecca Quick This is an underpromise, overdeliver situation, too? Charles Munger Well, of course. Who in the hell in his right mind would like going around making a lot of commitments and failing time after time after time of doing what you promised to do? Everybody would hate you, right? There's no more guaranteed way to maybe we'll hate you than the fail in their reasonable expectations. So of course, you want to live a life where, by and large, you're meeting reasonable expectations of other people. That's what civilization requires of all of us. Rebecca Quick Charlie, someone named [ Joe Roden ] from China, and he says he's an investor from China. He's sorry that he can't see you face to face this year. He wants to ask you a question about life during the pandemic. He says, "I always give bits of advice to the elders in my family like avoiding high temperatures and falling down at home. But during the pandemic, especially since China reopened, I can seldom give them any advice except stay at home and get vaccinated. So as a wise elder yourself, did you get COVID during the pandemic? And how do you stay healthy? What's your advice to these elders? Charles Munger
我确实得过新冠,但是在接种疫苗之后得的,也就流了大约 10 分钟的小鼻涕。这就是我得新冠的全部症状,不过那段时间检测结果是阳性。
说到谨慎调整这个总体思路,我有许多上了年纪的朋友要么因为摔倒去世,要么摔成重伤。所以我自己也老了,到了该用点什么来避免摔倒的时候了。
有人劝我用手杖。但我注意到,那些用手杖的朋友偶尔还是会摔倒。所以我从来不用那该死的手杖。相反,我买了一个那种现代助步车。只要我担心会摔倒的地方,我就推着我的助步车。我这样做了 6 年半。整整 6 年半,我一次都没摔倒过,就因为我更谨慎。
这是我给所有人的建议,就是稍微更谨慎一点。现在我已经用上轮椅了。我大概还能再用 6 年半。但其中一部分时间已经用掉了。我对我的轮椅也同样谨慎。多一点谨慎有什么坏处呢?
贝基·奎克:有道理。我想转达一个来自得克萨斯州休斯顿的(Frank Wang)的问题。这个问题是关于伯克希尔的。他说伯克希尔之前建仓了埃克森美孚,然后又很快退出了。如果我没记错的话,他说,我相信你曾说过,当时伯克希尔认为那是现金的一个不错替代选择。伯克希尔新近建仓西方石油和雪佛龙,也是同样的思路吗?是同样的思路吗?还是说,对伯克希尔而言,这更可能是一个长期持有的仓位?
查理·芒格:嗯,这是个非常好的问题。我认为,通过这两家公司持有一大笔在二叠纪盆地的资产,很可能是一个相当不错的长期持有。所以我很喜欢那个仓位的这个方面。
I did get COVID, but I got it after I was vaccinated, and I had like a tiny sniffle for about 10 minutes. And that was my COVID, but I tested positive during that time. And in terms of the general idea of cautious adjustment, I had a lot of elderly friends who either died or had terrible injuries from falls. And so I got old myself. And it got time to use something to avoid falling down. People tried to sell me on the cane. But I noticed that my friends who use canes would fall down occasionally. So I never used the God damn cane. Instead, I bought one of these modern walkers. And wherever I was worried about falling down, I pushed my walker. I did that for 6.5 years. I never fell down once in 6.5 years just because I was more cautious. That is my advice to all people, just to be a little more cautious. Now I've gone to the wheelchair. And I've got another 6.5 years probably. But some of it I've already used up. And I'm just as cautious with my wheelchair. What is the harm of having a little extra caution? Rebecca Quick Makes sense. I want to pivot a question from [ Frank Wang ] in Houston, Texas. This question about Berkshire. He said Berkshire previously took a position in Exxon and then exited fairly quickly. If I recall correctly, he says, I believe you had stated that Berkshire thought it was a good alternative to cash at that time. Is the same type of thinking with Berkshire's new position in Occidental and Chevron? Is it the same type of thinking? Or is it likely to be more of a long-term type of holding for Berkshire going forward? Charles Munger Well, that is a very good question. And I think having a big position in the Permian Basin through those 2 companies, it's likely to be a pretty good long-term hold. So I like that aspect of that position.
本·格雷厄姆曾经说过:“如果这是一笔好的投资,那它也可能是一笔好的投机。”我认为这句话一般来说是对的。但我自己不做那些短期投机,至少不常做。而且——但我很喜欢伯克希尔通过那两家公司在二叠纪盆地持有的大仓位。
我对这两个地方都相当欣赏。西方石油和雪佛龙都是非常令人钦佩的公司。顺便说一句,西方石油一开始可不是这样。如果你回到 30、40 年前,西方石油是被一个骗子控制的。而现在它已经演变成了一家出色的公司,但起步时确实是个烂人。
贝基·奎克
30 或 40 年前是谁在经营?
查理·芒格
一个叫阿曼德·哈默的人。那是你出生之前的事了,贝基。你太年轻了。
贝基·奎克
我知道阿米·哈默,那个年轻一些的。
查理·芒格
是的。是的。不管怎样。
贝基·奎克
好的。[保罗·D] 写信来,我想是保罗 [听不清] 他说:“查理,大家普遍认为是你促成了沃伦·巴菲特的进化,让他转而以合理价格买入优秀企业,或者说简单点,愿意为一家好企业多付些钱。鉴于本·格雷厄姆对投资有着非凡的洞察力和理解,他自己为什么没有进化到预见到他那种‘烟蒂股’方法无法规模化的地步?你认为是什么让你早期就愿意为优质企业多付钱?”
And Ben Graham used to say, "If it's a good investment, it may be a good speculation." And I think that's generally true. But I don't do those shortterm speculations, at least not very often. And -- but I like the big position that Berkshire has in the Permian through those 2. I kind of admire both places a lot. Both Occidental and Chevron are very admirable places. And by the way, Oxy didn't start like that. If you go back 30, 40 years, Oxy was owned by a crook. And now it's evolved in a wonderful place, but it started as a sleazebag. Rebecca Quick Who was running it 30 or 40 years ago? Charles Munger A man named Armand Hammer. Before your time, Becky. You're too young. Rebecca Quick I know Armie Hammer, the younger one. Charles Munger Yes. Yes. Anyway. Rebecca Quick All right. [ Paul D ] writes in, and I believe it's Paul [indiscernible] he says, "Charlie, you're largely credited with Warren Buffett's evolution to buying great businesses at a reasonable price or in simple terms, a willingness to pay up for a great business. Given Ben Graham's exceptional insights and understanding of investing, how or why did he himself not evolve to foresee the inability to scale his Net-Net Cigar Butt approach? What do you attribute your early willingness to pay up stems from?
查理·芒格
记住,本·格雷厄姆人生中很大一部分崛起,是在一个时期——那时平庸企业里有大量低垂的果实,价格便宜得离谱。而他算是稀有的,在那个花园里狩猎的人。所以他靠买这些股票,为自己赚了相当不错的生活。
问题是,随着大萧条的余波散去,低垂的果实最终消失了。然后格雷厄姆实际上靠一只股票赚了他一生中超过一半的钱,那只股票就是 GEICO,那是一家伟大的企业。
所以,如果你真的看看这位伟人自己的人生,你会发现他教的并不是他自己致富的方式。而且,顺便说一句,他在晚年自己讲过这个故事。他仔细计算了从 GEICO 赚到的钱,相比他之前一生所做的一切。所以你可以说本·格雷厄姆自己也醒过来一次。
贝基·奎克
为什么——你觉得为什么你那么早就愿意接受为优秀企业出高价这个想法?
查理·芒格
嗯,因为这太显而易见了,而我要——要做显而易见的事。当然,如果你想得到好结果,你就得找一家伟大的公司。我认识到伟大是好的。了不起啊。查理·芒格,天才,认识到伟大是好的。当然,伟大是好的。
贝基·奎克
加拿大多伦多的保罗 [听不清] 写信来说:“当你评估一家公司做潜在投资时,你最看重什么,是业务还是管理层?而且你在优先考虑的事情上,和沃伦有分歧吗?”
查理·芒格
不,我不认为我们完全一样。我认为我们先喜欢业务伟大。其次,我们想要伟大的经理人。但投资伟大的经理人来接手糟糕的业务,我们并没有凭这个取得巨大成功。那不是我们崛起的方式。
贝基·奎克
马特·麦卡利斯特写道……
查理·芒格
如果你是一个糟糕的经理,你真的、真的需要一个伟大的业务。
贝基·奎克
那反过来,一个伟大的业务能被糟糕的经理经营吗?
查理·芒格
有时候可以。可口可乐很多年都是由一个智力严重受损的人经营的。董事们说有人年复一年喝醉 [听不清]。那在我看来就是一个美妙的业务——就算你智力有缺陷,也能把它经营得相当不错。那就是全盛时期的可口可乐。
贝基·奎克
我们说的是多久以前?
查理·芒格
嗯,25 年。
Charles Munger Remember, a lot of Ben Graham's rise in life was during a period when there was plenty of low-hanging fruit among mediocre businesses that are way too cheap. And he was relatively rare in doing his hunting in that garden. And so he made a pretty good living for himself buying these. What happened is that low-hanging fruit eventually went away as the aftermath of The Great Depression got away. And then Graham actually made more than half of all the money he made in his life out of one stock, and that stock was GEICO, which was a great business. So if you actually look at the great man's own life, you see that what he taught wasn't the way he got rich himself. And by the way, he told that story on himself late in life. He carefully computed how much he made in GEICO compared to everything he had ever done in his previous life. And so you can argue Ben Graham himself woke up once. Rebecca Quick What -- why do you think that you so early on were willing to come up with this idea of paying up for great businesses? Charles Munger Well, because it's so obvious, and I'm going to -- doing things that are obvious. Of course, it was obvious if you wanted to have good result, you got to do a great company. I recognize that greatness was good. Big deal. Charlie Munger, genius, recognizes greatness is good. Of course, greatness is good. Rebecca Quick Paul [indiscernible] from Toronto, Canada writes in and he says, "When you're evaluating a company for potential investment, what do you place the most emphasis on, the business or the management? And do you differ with Warren when it comes to what you place first?" Charles Munger No, I don't think we're the same. I think we like the business great first. And then second, we want great manager. But we have not made a huge success by investing in great managers to take over lousy businesses. That is not the way we rose. Rebecca Quick Matt McAllister writes... Charles Munger If you're a lousy manager, you really, really need a great business. Rebecca Quick And can a great business be run by a lousy manager, the inverse? Charles Munger Sometimes. Coca-Cola was run for years by a man with a very severe mental impairment. And the director says that somebody was drunk [indiscernible] year after year. Now that's my idea of a wonderful business that you can be mentally defective and run it pretty well. That was Coca-Cola in its heyday. Rebecca Quick How far back are we talking? Charles Munger Well, 25 years.
贝基·奎克
计算时间的事留给别人去做吧。马特·麦卡利斯特来信问:“查理,你曾说‘过度分散投资充其量只能产生平庸回报’。既然如此,如果一个人只能持有一只股票很长时间,而且这只股票对他本人、他的家庭以及他们未来的福祉来说是最重要的资产,请描述一下你在挑选这只股票或这家公司时会看重什么,同时谈谈在判断过程中你认为最重要的特征是什么?”
查理·芒格
嗯,有个能对你说“找个好仓位”的人会有帮助。所以,一家优秀的企业就是你想要的,当然,你也会希望有优秀的管理层。偶尔,我们确实遇到过两者兼具且能长期并肩前行的案例。但——当然,所有人都在寻找同样的东西。
问题是,当你找到那些好企业时,你会发现它们就像美国股票一样已经被翻来覆去地研究分析了。你可以想象人们花了多少时间思考美国股票。总的来说,你会发现,在美国,那些真正出色的企业,市盈率至少是 25 倍,甚至可能 30 或 35 倍。这自然让事情难上加难,因为一旦出了差错,你可能损失大部分投资。
当然,这也是投资如此困难的原因——好企业不会一直便宜。你必须在它被公认为好企业之前就识别出来。这非常难做到。
有些人能在这方面做得很好,但寥寥无几。我认为,美国那些专业资产管理人中,95% 的人我都不愿意替我工作。
贝基·奎克
真的吗?
查理·芒格
我觉得这就是这么难。我认为你需要跻身前 5% 才有合理的胜算。非常困难。当然,如果只是追踪指数并卖掉资产,那并不难。那是很棒的默认选项。
贝基·奎克
你的资产?
查理·芒格
顺便说一句,那——你看看《每日新闻》。我们刚搞了一个 401(k) 计划。员工们有哪些投资选项?0 个。全是指数基金。
贝基·奎克
那如果你……
查理·芒格
美国有多少 401(k) 计划像我们这样,强制要求用指数基金?大约 0%。我说得对不对?我当然说得对。这么做合乎逻辑。
贝基·奎克
好吧,那就说说那个“2 和 20”的比例问题吧。
Rebecca Quick I'll let somebody else do the math on that, figure out the timing. Matt McAllister writes in and says, "Charlie, you've described too much diversification as [ diversification ] being at best an average return producing strategy. In light of that thought, if one was allowed only one stock to hold for a very long time, and it would be the most important asset to him and his family and their future well-being, please describe what you would look for in that stock or company and also talk about the features that you would consider most important when you're trying to figure that out? Charles Munger Well, it helps to have somebody that says, "Look into a good position." So a great business that would be what you'd like and of course, you'd like a great management, too. And occasionally, we've had both the ride together for a long, long period. And -- but of course, everybody is looking for the same thing. And the trouble with it is you will find when you get into those good businesses, places picked over and analyzed as American stocks are. And you can imagine the amount of time spent thinking about American stocks. And you will find by and large in America, but it's really a great business. It's at least 25x earnings, and maybe 30 or 35 or something. So that makes it much harder, of course, because if something goes wrong, you can lose a lot of your investment. And of course, that's what makes investment so difficult is the fact that the good businesses don't stay cheap. You have got to somehow recognize a good business before it's recognizable as a good business. That's very hard to do. Some people get good at it, but not many. I don't think I would want 95% of the people who are America's professional asset managers, I wouldn't want working for me. Rebecca Quick Really? Charles Munger I think it's that hard. I think you need to be in the top 5% to have a reasonable chance. It's very difficult. Now it's not difficult as by an index and selling your asset. That's the great default position. Rebecca Quick Your assets? Charles Munger And by the way, that's -- if you said -- look at the Daily Journal Corporation. We just put in a 401(k) plan. What are the investment options for the people at work? 0. It's all index funds. Rebecca Quick And if you were... Charles Munger What percentage of American 401(k)s have our plan, index funds required? About 0. Am I right or am I wrong? Of course, I'm right. It's a logical thing to do. Rebecca Quick Okay so percent worth [ 2 and 20 ].
查理·芒格
有时候吧,有时候还真的能。能做到“2 和 20”收费标准的,我敢说远远不到 5% 的基金。市场需求摆在那儿,就该收“2 和 20”的水平。这确实——这真的已经极为罕见了,尤其是在当今每个细分赛道都挤满人的环境下。你其实——你要是做红杉那种早期风投,又有几个人能拿出红杉那样的业绩记录?我觉得一百个人里都挑不出一个能有红杉那种成绩的。
贝基·奎克
来自宾夕法尼亚州费城的克里斯·里德写信问:您之前说过……
查理·芒格
顺便说一句,就连红杉偶尔也会犯错。没人能幸免。
贝基·奎克
但总体而言,您还是觉得这个收费值得?
查理·芒格
你先问完问题。
贝基·奎克
好,好的。这位克里斯·里德从费城写信说:“您之前——您以前说过,应该每年至少毁掉自己一个绝妙的想法。那么您在 2022 年毁掉了哪个好想法?到 2023 年为止又有什么新收获?”
Charles Munger Sometimes, sometimes. Being worth [ 2 and 20 ], I would say that is way less than 5%. Demand is worth [ 2 and 20 ]. That is really -- that's getting very rare indeed, particularly under modern conditions where every niche is occupied. It's -- you really -- if you take early-stage venture capital like Sequoia does, how many people have a Sequoia-like record? I don't think there's 1 in 100 that has a Sequoia-type record. Rebecca Quick [ Chris Reed ] from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania writes in and says, You've said previously that... Charles Munger And by the way, even Sequoia makes an occasional mistake. Everybody does. Rebecca Quick But overall, you still think it's worth it? Charles Munger Go ahead. Rebecca Quick Yes. Okay. So [ Chris Reed ] writes in from Philadelphia and says, "You've previously -- You've said previously that you should destroy at least one good idea that you have each year. What good idea did you destroy in 2022? And anything in 2023 so far?" Charles Munger
好吧,我毁掉了一个本就不好的主意。那本来就是个坏主意。
互联网兴起时,我被那些引领在线零售的人们深深吸引。但我没有意识到,它本质上仍然是零售。也许是在线零售,但——它终究还是零售。我只是——我有点失去焦点,这让我高估了阿里巴巴未来的回报。所以我一直在犯错误。
贝基·奎克
我想我这边听不到查理的声音了,我不知道你们能不能听到他。
查理·芒格
[听不清] 我自己的错误我都清楚,我现在这么做是因为我觉得对我自己有好处。
贝基·奎克
你能听到我,但我听不到你。刚才那个问题的时候你的声音断了。你能帮我个忙吗,如果你能听到我,请举手示意一下?查理能听到我,但我听不到他。所以如果你们能打电话联系我,我是直接连在线路上的。现在我听到的是节目,不是这个节目,我听到的是从你的音乐设备里传出来的现场直播节目。查理,我打算再问你一个问题,这样大家就不用听我在这儿折腾了。我们会在控制室里想办法修好这个。
不过这个问题来自——让我看看,我们来看这个。克里斯·贝纳西问了这个问题,他说:“你好,查理,在《每日新闻》上次的对话中,一个显著的主题围绕着不同系统框架和选择之间的正反权衡。你能谈谈你对医疗保健行业的看法吗?特别是像美国这样的资本主义体系与加拿大和英国这种单一支付者体系之间的权衡。我问这个单一支付者医疗保健问题,是因为有些人不了解,你曾在洛杉矶一家医院长期担任主席,所以你对这种情况确实有些见解。”趁他们在修设备,你可以自由发挥,多说一会儿。
查理·芒格
是的。当有人问起他们与摩根大通和亚马逊等公司的那个实验时,他们本来打算做出改变。他们想改善美国医疗及其成本存在的问题。当他们宣布这个实验彻底失败时,沃伦只是说“寄生虫赢了”,事实就是如此。我认为美国这个系统的成本太高了。
你能听到我吗?
贝基·奎克
查理,我看到你的嘴唇不动了。所以我要问另一个问题。我现在耳朵里听到的是“午餐秀”的声音。如果控制室里有人在留意的话。
这个问题来自布拉德·赫克。布拉德·赫克来自明尼苏达州南圣保罗,他说:查理,我是你自律生活方式的超级粉丝。你每天在同一时间起床,又在同一时间睡觉吗?最后,你每天第一件专注的事情是什么?
查理·芒格
嗯,我的作息时间会有些变化,但相当规律。我晚年睡眠质量不错。所以在这方面我很幸运。还有……
贝基·奎克
看到你的嘴唇又不动了。所以我——我明白了。我明白了。终于,我听到你了。好的,查理,让我问你这个问题。
查理·芒格
你又收到信号了。
贝基·奎克
是的,我听到你了。
查理·芒格
现代科技啊。
贝基·奎克
我觉得如果我们——有时候这玩意儿是能用的。[听不清] 有人问,如果你能为 2024 年总统就职选任何人,你会选谁?
查理·芒格
嗯,我想我该回避这个问题。我不想卷入总统政治。
贝基·奎克
好的。我理解。我能明白。查尔斯来信说,首先他想感谢你,查理,捐赠了一些《每日新闻》股份来建立那个新的——那个新的《每日新闻》管理层股权激励计划。你之前谈到过这个。他说,此外,他对传言中《穷查理宝典》的新增内容感到兴奋。首先,这是真的吗?但他真正想问你的问题是,他说你说过你钦佩本杰明·富兰克林。你能详细谈谈这个话题,并强调一下你钦佩本·富兰克林的哪些品质吗?
查理·芒格
Well, the idea that I destroyed that it wasn't a good idea. It was a bad idea. When the Internet came in, I got overcharmed by the people who are leading in the online retailing. And I didn't realize it's still retailing. It may be online retailing, but -- it's also still retailing. And I just -- I got a little out of focus and that let me overestimate the future returns from Alibaba. And so I have never gotten [indiscernible] mistakes. Rebecca Quick I think I just lost Charlie's audio, I'm not sure if you guys can hear it. Charles Munger [Indiscernible] my own knows and my own mistakes, I say I'm doing now because I think it's good for myself. Rebecca Quick You can hear me, but I can't hear you. You dropped out during that last question. Can you do me a favor, just raise your hand if you can hear me? Charlie can hear me. I'm not hearing him. So if you guys can call and I'm hooked in directly to the line. Now I'm hearing program, not this program, I'm hearing live on air program coming from your music that's coming in. Charlie, I'm going to ask you another question just so that everybody else doesn't have to listen to me talking this through. We're going to try and get this fixed here in the control room. But this question comes in from -- let's see, let's go to this one. Chris Benassi who asked the question about he says, "Hi, Charlie, a notable theme during the last Daily Journal conversation revolved around positive and negative trade-offs between different systems frameworks and choices. Can you discuss your views on the health care industry, specifically the tradeoffs between capitalist systems like the United States and single-payer systems like Canada and the U.K., and I'm asking this single-payer health care question because for those who don't know, you serve for a long time as Chairman at a hospital in Los Angeles, so you do have some insights into what the situation is." And feel free to talk a long time while they're fixing this. Charles Munger Yes. When somebody asked for and what happened their experiment with JPMorgan Chase and Amazon and so forth. And they were going to change. They improve the -- what was wrong with the American medicine and its cost. And when they gave that up as a total failure, Warren just said the tapeworm won, and that's what happens. I think the American system is cost way too much. Can you hear me? Rebecca Quick Charlie, I see your lips have stopped moving. So I'm going to ask another question. I'm hearing power lunch in my ear right now. If anybody is paying attention in the control room. But this question comes in from Brad Heck. Brad Heck is in South St. Paul, Minnesota and says, Charlie, I'm a big fan of your disciplined approach to life. Do you get up at the same time every day and go to the bed at the same time? And finally, what's the first thing you focus on each day? Charles Munger Well, I vary a little in my time, but I'm pretty regular. And I'm a pretty good sleeper in my old age. So I'm very lucky in that respect. And... Rebecca Quick See your lips have stopped moving. So I'm -- got you. I got you. Finally, I hear you. Okay, Charlie, let me ask you this question. Charles Munger You got sound again. Rebecca Quick Yes, I've got you. Charles Munger Modern technology. Rebecca Quick I think we'd be a little better if this -- sometimes it works. [indiscernible] said, if you could inaugurate anyone for President in 2024, who would you choose? Charles Munger Well, I think I'll duck that one. I don't want to get into the presidential politics. Rebecca Quick Okay. I hear that. I can understand that. Charles writes in and says, first of all, he wants to thank you, Charlie, for gifting some DJ Co shares to establish that newly -- that new Daily Journal management equity incentive plan. You talked about that earlier on. He said, additionally, he's excited about the rumored new addition of Poor Charlie's Almanack. First of all, is that true? But the real question he has for you, he said, you said that you admire Benjamin Franklin, can you please elaborate on this subject and highlight the qualities that you admire in Ben Franklin? Charles Munger
本·富兰克林是个天才。他出身于一个小国家,但别忘了,他是在一贫如洗中起步的。他父亲用死动物尸体做肥皂,臭气熏天。那可是一个非常低微的起点。而且他几乎全靠自学——只上过两三年小学,之后全凭自学成才。
就凭这样的起点,他一步步崛起,到他去世时,他是美国最杰出的发明家、最优秀的科学家、最出色的作家,还是这个国家最厉害的人。一件接一件,他整个美国都是翘楚。他是个非常独特的人。他拥有极高的智商,说话方式又精炼犀利,这让他对同胞们极其有用。
他还不断发明各种东西。想象一下,发明富兰克林炉灶、双焦眼镜,还有那些我们每天都在用的东西。我现在看着你,就戴着双焦眼镜呢。这是本·富兰克林的眼镜。这个人到底怎么回事,一辈子就这么走过来了,还能把东西做得近乎完美。他居然发明了该死的老花镜。这只是他的众多发明之一。
所以,他是一个非常、非常了不起的人。当然,我钦佩这样的人。像本·富兰克林这样的人,我们可遇不到几个。
贝基·奎克
我在想,还有图书馆系统,他是不是也发明了……
查理·芒格
他是最棒的作家——他是全国最棒的作家,也是最棒的科学家,还是最棒的发明家。这种事不会再有了。是的,还有其他很多成就,没错。
Well, Ben Franklin was a genius. It was a small country, but remember, he started in absolute poverty. His father made soap out of the carcasses of dead animals that stank. Now that is a very low place to start from. And he was almost entirely self educated 2 or 3 years of primary school and after that, he had to learn all himself. Well, the rise from that kind of a starting position and become -- the time he died, he was the best inventor in his country, the best scientists in this country, the best writer in his country, the best [indiscernible] in this country. Thing after, thing after, thing, he was the best there was in the whole United States. He was a very unusual person. And you just got an extremely high IQ and a very kind of pithy way of talking that made him very useful to his fellow citizens. And he kept inventing all these things. Imagine inventing the Franklin stove oven, bifocal glasses and all these things that we use all the time. I'm wearing bifocal glasses as I'm looking at you. These are Ben Franklin glasses. What the hell kind of a man that just goes through life and the [indiscernible] gets a little perfect. He invented the god damn bifocals. It was just one of his many inventions. So he was a very, very remarkable person. And of course, I admire somebody like that. We don't get very many people like Ben Franklin. Rebecca Quick I'm thinking the library system, I think he invented... Charles Munger He was the best writer -- and he was the best writer in his nation and also the best scientist and also the best inventor. [indiscernible] that ever happen again. Yes, always other things, yes. Rebecca Quick
那么,是不是有新版《穷查理宝典》要出了?
查尔斯·芒格
而且他会演奏 4 种不同的乐器。如果还有别的信息的话。
丽贝卡·奎克
这部分我不知道。没错,这部分我之前不知道。
查尔斯·芒格
其中一种是他发明的。其中一种是他发明的。那种玻璃乐器——他们偶尔还会演奏它。
丽贝卡·奎克
是的。就像用不同水层的玻璃杯那样……
查尔斯·芒格
但他确实会演奏 4 种不同的乐器。
丽贝卡·奎克
是的。而且他还是一位外交家——为这个国家制定规则,并且通过他设立的信托基金让复利发挥作用——那个信托基金是为费城和波士顿设立的,几百年后仍在持续支付收益。
查尔斯·芒格
没错,他是个非常了不起的人。当然,这个国家也很感激。我们能拥有他,很幸运。
丽贝卡·奎克
这是真的吗?真的有新版《穷查理宝典》要出版吗?
So is there a new addition of Poor Charlie's Almanack. Charles Munger And he played 4 different musical instruments. If there is anything else. Rebecca Quick That part I didn't know. Yes, that part I did not know. Charles Munger One of which he invented. One of which he invented. The glass thing that [indiscernible] -- they still play it occasionally. Rebecca Quick Yes. With like different layers of water... Charles Munger But he actually played on 4 different instruments. Rebecca Quick Yes. And he was a diplomat and -- write the rules of the country and compound interest with the -- the trust that he set up for both Philadelphia and for Boston and still hundreds of years later are paying out. Charles Munger No, he was a very amazing person. Of course, the country was glad. We were lucky to have him. Rebecca Quick Is it true? Is there a new Poor Charlie's Almanack coming out?
查理·芒格:他们在做网络版。
贝基·奎克:好,你刚才聊到了一些……
查理·芒格:顺便说一句,中文版卖得比美国版多得多。
贝基·奎克:嗯,那边人口更多嘛。
查理·芒格:那不是唯一的原因。
贝基·奎克:还有什么?
查理·芒格:一个有钱的老头长得像孔子。在他们的体系里,没有比有钱的老头更好的了。
贝基·奎克:没错。查理,[听不清] 写来一个问题,是关于将延迟满足推到极致:对于你这种年纪和财富的人来说,践行延迟满足有多理性?如果在你这把年纪不理性,那延迟满足对普通成年人来说又怎么算理性?所以人一生中到什么节点才应该不再延迟满足?
Charles Munger Well, they're creating an online edition. Rebecca Quick Okay. You've talked about some. Charles Munger By the way, the Chinese edition sold way more than the one in the United States. Rebecca Quick Well, there's more people there. Charles Munger That's not the sole reason. Rebecca Quick What else? Charles Munger Well, a rich old man looks like Confucius. In their system, there's nothing better than a rich old man. Rebecca Quick Yes. Charlie, [indiscernible] writes in a question, and this is about delayed gratification taken to the extreme, how rational is it for a person of your age and wealth to practice delayed gratification? If it's not rational at your age, how is it rational to delay gratification for the average adult? So what's the rational point in life to live with no delayed gratification to.
查理·芒格
我还在做——如今我老了,就买这些公寓房,这让我有事可干。而且[听不清]其他人都在经营这些公寓。别人都试图展示高收入,以便能够高分红。我们则是在想办法明智地花钱把房子弄好。当然,我们的公寓表现比别人好,因为帮我打理的人干得实在太出色了。那个人——其实是两个年轻人——和我一起做这事。
而且——但这全都是延迟满足。我们在找机会延迟,而别人在找办法享受。这是截然不同的生活之道。
贝基·奎克
你一开始就是这样做的吗?
查理·芒格
用我的方式过活,得到的乐趣比他们多吗?
贝基·奎克
你是一开始就得学着延迟满足,还是天生就这样?
查理·芒格
不,我很早就学会了这个窍门。我们用两块棉花糖在小孩子身上做过那个实验。[听不清]到现在他们还在观察这些孩子一生的发展轨迹。那些延迟——善于推迟吃那块棉花糖的小孩,也正是人生中成功的人。说真的,这么多东西是天生的,挺可悲的。不过人也能在一定程度上学会。
Charles Munger I'm still doing the -- now that I'm old, I buy these apartment houses, it gives me something to do. And [Indiscernible] everybody else runs them. Everybody else is trying to show high income, so they can have high distributions. We're trying to find ways to intelligently spend money to make them better. And of course, our apartments do better than other people do because the man who runs them does it so well for me. The man, there are 2 young men that do it with me. And -- but it's all deferred gratification. We're looking for opportunities to defer other people are looking for ways to enjoy. It's a different way of going at life. Rebecca Quick Did you start out that way? Charles Munger You get more enjoyment in life doing it my way than theirs? Rebecca Quick Did you start out having to work at delayed gratification or is that just how you were born? Charles Munger No, I learned this trick early. And we've done that experiment with 2 marshmallows with little kids. [indiscernible] And they've done watch them how they work out in life by now. And the delayed -- the little kids were good at deferring the marshmallow, also the people that succeed in life. It's kind of sad that so much is inborn, so to speak. But you can learn to some extent, too.
贝基·奎克
我回家就拿这个去考考我的孩子们。
查理·芒格
我非常幸运,只是很早就自然而然地选择了延迟满足。当然了,这此后一直让我受益。
贝基·奎克
[ 马特·麦卡利斯特 ] 来信说,首先,感谢你们分享智慧。我们有幸聆听,受益匪浅。因为你们的坦诚描述,我们了解到沃伦·巴菲特——我们了解到沃伦·巴菲特是一台学习机器。除了这个品质,你还认为沃伦身上有哪些其他特质,帮助他成为这个世界前所未见的最伟大的投资家和复利创造者之一?
查理·芒格
嗯,沃伦不仅是一位非常出色的思考者和学习者——这很重要——而且沃伦身上有强大的、坚定的受托人基因。他关心股东的利益。沃伦和我都很幸运,因为早期那些真正信任我们的股东,当时我们还年轻,没什么名气,等等。
自然而然,我们对那些人怀有非同寻常的忠诚。当然了,很自然,他们现在都已经去世了。我们仍然对他们忠诚。沃伦和我仍然非常关心伯克希尔股东的状况。我认为这有助于我们。我认为,如果你善于忠诚,这对你有好处。请继续,贝基。
贝基·奎克
好的。那么 [ 听不清 ] 来信说,许多大公司,包括拥有 Facebook 和各种保险业务的 Meta,都选择对董事责任或商业风险进行自保。如果这种做法走向极端,它不会——随着时间的推移,它无疑将会如此——这可能会引发潜在的 systemic 问题。请问您对此有何看法?他说他持有伯克希尔·哈撒韦股票已经 16 年了,感谢你们的治理,并慷慨地与年轻一代分享你们的想法,[ 听不清 ]
查理·芒格
在我自己的一生中,我是一个很大的自保者,沃伦也是。我给自己房子买火灾保险是荒谬的,因为如果房子烧毁了,我可以轻松地重建一栋。所以,我为什么要自找麻烦去处理理赔流程和各种事情呢。
所以,如果——保险——你应该为那些你自己无力承担损失的事情投保。但如果你能承受住这些磕碰,而那种不寻常的开支并不会真正对你造成多大伤害。那你为什么要跟某个保险公司瞎折腾呢。如果你的房子烧了,我会直接开张支票,然后重建它。所有聪明人都会这么做。我不是说所有人,但——也许我应该说,所有聪明人都应该按我的方式做。
生活中应该有更多的自保。现在有很多浪费。你买保险的时候,是在为别人的欺诈行为买单,而生活中欺诈行为很多。你可以自己承担风险,不用去跟理赔啊这个那个啊、佣金啊、时间啊瞎折腾。当然,你自保,会更简单,等等。
想想我这一生省下了多少钱。我把范围缩小了。我不在乎。我从来没有——从来没有。我想有一次——但只有一次例外,我从来没有给车买过碰撞险。而一旦我变得富有,我就不再给房子买火灾保险了。我就是自保。
贝基·奎克
Rebecca Quick I'll go home and test that out on my kids. Charles Munger I was very lucky, I just naturally took the deferred gratification very early in life. And of course, it's helped me ever since. Rebecca Quick [ Matt McAllister ] writes in and says, first, thank you for sharing your wisdom. Those of us fortunate enough to listen have benefited significantly. We've come to know that Warren Buffett -- we've come to know Warren Buffett as a learning machine because of your candid descriptions, aside from this quality, what others would you credit to Warren that has helped make him one of the greatest investors and compounders that the world's ever seen? Charles Munger Well, Warren is not only a very good thinker and a good learner, which is important, but Warren has a big strong fiduciary gene. He cares about what happens to the shareholders. Warren and I were lucky in that the early shareholders that really trusted us, we were young and didn't have a reputations and so on. And naturally, we feel an exceptional loyalty to those people. And of course, naturally, they're all dead now. We're still loyal to them. Warren and I still care what happens to the Berkshire shareholders, a lot. And I think that helps us. I think that it helps if you're good at loyalty. Go ahead Becky. Rebecca Quick Okay. So [indiscernible] writes in and says that many large companies, including Meta, which owns Facebook and various insurances, are choosing to self-insure against liability either for directors or for the business risks. If it's carried to extremes, it would not -- as it no doubt will be over time, this could cause potential systemic issues. Would you share your thoughts on this, please? He says he's been a shareholder of Berkshire Hathaway for 16 years, and thanks you for your stewardship and sharing your thoughts generously with the younger generations with [indiscernible] Charles Munger In my own life, I'm a big self-insured and so is Warren. It's ridiculous for me to carry fire insurance on my house because I could easily rebuild a house if burned down. So why would I want to bother fooling around with the claims process and all kinds of things. So if insurance -- you should insure against things you can't afford to pay for yourself. But if you can afford to take the bumps, so unusual expense coming along doesn't really hurt you that much. Why would you want to fool around with some insurance company. If your house burned down, I would just write a check and rebuild it. And all intelligent people do that way. I don't say all, but -- maybe I should say, all intelligent people should do it my way. There should be way more self-insurance in life. There's a lot of waste. You're paying when you buy insurance for the other fellows frauds, and there's a lot of fraud in life. And you can afford to take the risk yourself and not fool around with claims and this and that and commissions and time. Of course, you self insure, it's simpler and so forth. Think of what I've saved in my life. I narrowed it. I don't care. I never carried - never. I think once -- but with one exception, I never carried collision insurance on a car. And once I got rich, I stopped carrying fire insurance on houses. I just self insure. Rebecca Quick
来自一家大型保险公司副董事长之口,这个观点倒有点出人意料。
查理·芒格:这样做才对。什么?
贝基·奎克:这话出自伯克希尔的副董事长之口,有点让人意外——伯克希尔旗下有那么多保险公司。
查理·芒格:嗯,但我不想——我更愿意把实情说出来,而且是用对伯克希尔有利的方式说出来。我不会因为对伯克希尔更有利,就把它说成和我的真实想法不一样。就算对伯克希尔不利,我也想告诉你们:如果你负担得起自保,那就自保。
贝基·奎克:即使是在医疗这类事情上?还是说,你只是觉得人们可能会高估自己负担得起的能力?
查理·芒格:那不一样——你的保险公司付给医院医生的钱,只是你支付的医疗费的一小部分。所以那是另一种计算逻辑。医学领域所有东西——美国医疗和医疗保险的成本——简直是耻辱。
如果你去新加坡,你会发现他们整个体系做得比我们好,而花费只有我们支付的 20%。
贝基·奎克:
That's a little bit of a surprising take for the guy who is Vice Chairman at a big insurance company. Charles Munger That is the right way to do it. What? Rebecca Quick That's a little bit of a surprising take from a guy who is a Vice Chairman at Berkshire, which has so many insurance companies. Charles Munger Well, but I'm not -- I'd rather tell the way it is. And tell it in a way that helps Berkshire. I'm not going to tell it differently than I think it really is just because it's better for Berkshire. Even though it's bad for Berkshire, I want to tell you if you can afford to self-insure, self-insure. Rebecca Quick Even on things like medical or I just think you might think you could afford these things? Charles Munger That is different -- your insurer pays the doctor in the hospital is a small fraction of what you pay. So that's a different kind of calculus. Everything in medicine is -- the cost of American medical care and the medical insurance, it's a disgrace. If you go to Singapore, you will find that they do the whole thing better than we do, and it cost 20% of what we pay. Rebecca Quick
下面这个段落只输出一个段落的译文:
而且,我的音频又出问题了……
查理·芒格:顺便说一句,我完全不知道他们打算怎么从当前状态走到设想的目标,因为所有拿到额外钱的人都会像猛虎一样死守不放。这些人控制着董事会、城市、州政府,还有所有其他东西——所以我真不知道该怎么解决美国的医疗成本问题。它们完全失控了,我试过用亚马逊那套办法去解决,也失败了。所有人都失败了。全美国在控制药品成本方面,都创造了一个辉煌的失败纪录。
贝基·奎克:马特·麦卡利斯特写来一个问题,我意识到他之前已经问过几个了。我没注意到是重复发送的,但我喜欢这个问题。他说:关于格雷格·阿贝尔,有哪些最重要的事情是我们需要了解的?你有没有经历过他也是一个“学习机器”的例子?如果有的话,能分享一个吗?
查理·芒格:有的。格雷格作为企业领袖简直太出色了,无论是作为思考者还是行动者。他在通过别人顺畅地把事情做成这方面也极其擅长。所以他是一个非常了不起的人,伯克希尔能有他是天大的幸运。而且他也是一个超强的学习机器。可以说,在学习各种东西方面,他跟沃伦一样厉害。格雷格有一点很有意思——他在某些事情上比沃伦更强,沃伦也知道这一点,所以他就一直在把活儿往格雷格身上堆。只要是格雷格能做得更好的事情——那可不少——都扔给他。所以伯克希尔的体系运转得相当不错。我们很幸运,有一个 92 岁还能保持这么好状态的人(指巴菲特),同样幸运的是,我们能有格雷格这样一位首席执行官。格雷格真的非常出色。
And again, my audio was... Charles Munger And by the way, I have no idea of how they get from where we are to where [indiscernible] is because all the people are getting all that extra money, fight like fierce tigers to hold on to it. And they control boards and cities and states and every other -- so I don't know how to fix the cost in American health care. They're totally out of control and I weren't trying to fix it with Amazon, all that stuff. He failed too. Everybody's failed. Everybody in America has a marvelous record failing in handling our cost of medicines. Rebecca Quick Matt McAllister writes in, and I realized he's asked a couple of questions. I didn't realize this was a repeat sending, but I like the question. He said, what are some of the most important things that we need to know about Greg Abel? Have you experienced examples of him also being a learning machine. And if so, could you share one? Charles Munger Yes. Greg is just sensational at being a business leader, both as a thinker and as a doer. And he's also sensationally good at smoothly getting things done through other people. So he's a very remarkable human being, and Berkshire is very lucky to have him. And he's also a tremendous learning machine. You can argue that he's just as good as Warren in learning all kinds of things. And one of the interesting things about Greg is there are some things he's better at than Warren is, and Warren knows that and he just keeps dumping on the Greg. Everything that Greg can do better, and it's a lot. And so the system at Berkshire is working pretty down well. We're very lucky to have a 92-year-old this good shape is [indiscernible]. And we're very lucky to have us a chief executive like Greg. Greg is very remarkable.
格雷格在保险领域——在公用事业监管者那里都受到信任,而且完全合情合理。他经营所有这些公用事业时,就像自己是监管者一样。有多少人能这么想?但这是非常聪明的做法。
贝基·奎克
您是说,仅仅出于善意的一种表现?
查理·芒格
没错。为什么不让人满意呢——如果你站在交易的另一方,为什么不按照你自己想要的方式去做呢?如果你希望别人怎么对待你,你就怎么对待别人,你怎么可能失败?这是黄金法则。当然,它管用。
贝基·奎克
好。有位叫吉姆的股东写信来问这个问题,我之所以提出来,是因为我收到很多类似的问题,都是关于投资的,但这个可能特别多人到了 65 岁以上就开始思考。他写道:“您建议我 67 岁开始领社保金,还是等到 70 岁每月领更多?”
查理·芒格
嗯,我不能替你做这个决定。要视情况而定。你知道自己很快就要死了,那我就会选择早领多花(听不清)。如果你觉得自己能活很久,那可能算法就不一样。而且我觉得大多数人——那些身体健康、预期寿命不错的人——通常都有办法推迟领取社保金,之后拿更多钱。
贝基·奎克
我想这也是一种乐观的想法,如果你觉得自己会活很久,那就这样操作。
查理·芒格
那你呢,贝基?
贝基·奎克
我还没到 65 岁,所以还没想过这个问题。我在等。我猜我会等。
查理·芒格
我觉得你不需要社保金,贝基。我不担心你。
贝基·奎克
我想我会工作更久。我天生比较保守。所以——(听不清)有股东写道:您曾敦促美国政府像中国那样禁止加密货币。我有一个更宏观的问题,关于历史上不同国家的繁荣与萧条周期:对于经济增长,一个好政府应该做什么,不该做什么?
查理·芒格
嗯,如果你想实现人均 GDP 增长——这是每个人都应该追求的目标——那你必须把大部分财产放在私人手里。也就是说,大多数做财产决策的人本身就是财产的拥有者,这使整个系统极其高效,人均 GDP 就能增长,前提是有一个货币体系带来的便捷交易等等。所以——文明致富的主要方式,就是靠这些交易,以及把财产放在私人手里。
如果你喜欢小提琴课,而我又需要你的钱,我们做一笔交易,双方都受益。当然,当一群人在花自己的钱、经营自己的生意时,GDP 就会疯狂增长。据我所知,历史上没有任何一个社会能从(听不清)采集狩猎状态进入现代文明,除非靠一个大部分财产归私人所有的体系。
要有大量的交易自由。顺便说一句,我刚刚说的东西显而易见,但在大多数教育里并没有这么讲。哪怕是——你可以在大学选修经济学课程,也不会学到我刚才说的那些。反正他们没有用同样的方式教课。
贝基·奎克
这会是您——您最感兴趣的地方。好了。这个问题来自马特,他写道:在您与伯克希尔·哈撒韦共事的经历中,基于您之前那些理性的思考和观念,有哪些事情让您最感意外?此外,在您追求成为更好学习机器的过程中,您是如何利用这些意外的?
查理·芒格
我觉得最让我意外的事情之一,就是有多少东西会消亡——商界非常像自然界,在物种进化的过程中,所有动物都会死,这样才有机会改良物种,让它们能在各自的生态位里生存等等。所有动物都会死,最终所有物种也会灭绝。这就是系统。
我年轻的时候,没有意识到这个系统同样适用于资本主义世界里所有的企业。答案就是:它们都在走向消亡的路上。所以其他东西能取代它们,继续活下去。而这会导致一些令人瞩目的凋亡。想象一下柯达的消亡。它是世界上最伟大的品牌之一。没有哪个不用胶卷的人。它们统治着胶卷市场,它们比地球上任何人都更了解相机胶卷。然后,整个该死的业务归零了。再看看——
Greg is trusted by insurance -- by utility regulators and rightly so. He is trying to run all those utilities as if he were the regulator. How many people think that way? But it's a smart way to think. Rebecca Quick You mean, just from a show of good faith? Charles Munger Yes. Why not please -- why not do it the way that you want to do if you were on the other side of the transaction. How can you fail if you treat other people like you'd like to be treated yourself? It's the golden rule. Of course, it works. Rebecca Quick All right. Someone named Jim writes in and I asked this question because I got a lot of similar ones just in terms of investments, but this one is probably a question that a lot of people as they start to get up 65 and beyond start to wonder. He just says, "Would you recommend I take social security when I'm 67 or wait until I'm 70 when I'll receive more per month?" Charles Munger Well, I can't make that choice for you. It depends. You know you're going to be dead pretty soon, I go ahead and have more [Indiscernible]. You think you may live a long time, you may have a different calculus. And I would say that most -- most people who are healthy and so forth, and who have a pretty good life expectancy. Generally, there are ways to defer the social security taking and take more money later. Rebecca Quick I guess it's optimistic thinking too, if you're thinking that you're going to live a long time, that's a way to play it out. Charles Munger Well, what do you do, Becky? Rebecca Quick Well, I'm not 65 yet, so I haven't thought about it yet. I'm waiting. My guess is I would. Charles Munger I don't think you're going to need social security Becky. I'm not worried about you. Rebecca Quick I think I would work longer. I'm naturally conservative. So -- [indiscernible] writes in, you urged the U.S. government to ban cryptocurrencies as China has done. I have a more general question with boom and bust cycles in different countries in history, what should a good government do and not do for economic growth? Charles Munger Well, what you've got to do if you want growing GDP per capita, which is what everybody should want. You've got to have most of the property in private hands. So most of the people who are making decisions about our properties to be cared for own the property in question, that makes the whole system so efficient to GDP per capita grows in a system where you have easy exchanges due to a currency system and so on. And so -- that's the main way of civilization getting rich is having all these exchanges and having all the property in private hands. If you like violin lessons, and I need your money, we make a transaction, we're gaining on both sides. So of course, GDP goes like crazy when you got a bunch of people who are spending their own money and wanting their own businesses and so on. And nobody in the history of the world that I'm aware of has ever gotten from [indiscernible] gathering to modern civilization, except through a system where most of the property was privately owned. A lot of freedom of exchange. And by the way, I've just add something that's perfectly obvious, but it hasn't really talked that way in most education. Even the -- you can take a course in economics in college and not know what I just said. They don't teach it exactly the same way, anyway. Rebecca Quick That would be your -- your best interest. Okay. This one comes in from Matt, and he says, throughout your experience with Berkshire Hathaway, what are a few of the things that have surprised you most based upon some of your previous rational thoughts and ideas? Also, how have you used some of those surprises in your quest to become a better learning machine? Charles Munger I would say the things -- some of the things that surprised me the most was how -- how much dies -- the business world is very much like the physical world where all the animals die in the course of improving all the species, so they can live in niches and so forth. All the animals die and eventually all the species die. That's the system. And when I was young, I didn't realize that same system applied to what happens in capitalism to all of businesses. They're all on their way to dying is the answer. So other things can replace them and live. And causes some remarkable death. Imagine having Kodak die. It was one of the great trademarks of the world. There was nobody who didn't use film. They dominated film, they knew more about the camera film than anybody else on earth. And of course, the whole dam business went to zero and look at
施乐公司曾经……(听不清)……主导世界,现在却只是一堆缩水的破纸,早已不复当年雄风。
所以实际上,如果把时间尺度拉得足够长,一切都会消亡。我年轻时,这一点同样显而易见,但我当时却有一阵子没看透。有些东西看起来势头正盛,而且已经存在了很久,我曾以为等我老了它们也会依然如故。但其中很多已经消失了。商业世界里,几乎一切都会消亡。没有哪家企业能够永垂不朽。想想那些伟大的百货公司。想想它们曾经在那些小社区里扮演着多么重要的角色?它们在提供信贷、全季节便利等方面远远领先于所有对手。上下楼有电梯,往返穿梭方便得很,还有多层商场。看起来它们似乎是永恒的。但基本上,它们要么在垂死挣扎,要么已经彻底消亡。
所以,一旦我更深刻地理解了这一点,我认为这让我成为了一个更好的投资者,我是这么觉得的。
贝基·奎克:
我是说,管理者也是如此。我和沃尔玛的道格·麦克米伦聊过,他钱包里随身带着一张几十年来顶级零售商的名单,一直带在身上。榜单上的名字永远在变。
查理·芒格:
没错——都消失了。是啊,是啊。当然,零售商永远活在恐惧中,因为你会死。所以我想,更好的做法就是,你干脆就死掉算了,就像那些百货公司一样。
贝基·奎克:
你是说你早期投资过的那几家?是在巴尔的摩吗?
查理·芒格:
Xerox's [Indiscernible] the world, it's just a pale of shrink. It's nothing a bird that it once was. So practically, everything dies, if you big enough time scale. When I was young enough, that was just as obvious then I didn't see it for a while. Things that looked to turn and have been around for a long time. I thought would likely be that way when I was old. But a lot of them have disappeared. Practically everything dies in business. None of the imminent last forever. Think of all the great department stores. Think how long they were the most important thing in that little community? They are way ahead of everybody in furnishing credit, convenience at all seasons. Convenience back and forth, use the same banks of elevators and so forth, multiple floors. It looked like they were eternal. Basically all dying or dead. And so once I understood that better. I think it made me a better investor, I think. Rebecca Quick I mean, the same can be said for managers. I've talked with Doug McMillon of Walmart, who carries around in his wallet, like on him, he carries around a list of the top retailers over the decades. Nobody is ever the same. Charles Munger Yes -- were gone. Yes, yes. Of course, retailers live in terror because you can die. So I guess a better way of doing it, you just die. Like those department stores did. Rebecca Quick The ones that you invested in early on, you mean, is it Baltimore? Charles Munger
不是的,大部分——想想那些已经消失的百货商店,市中心一家又一家连锁店。它们不是变弱了,而是死透了。再看 IBM,它曾经拥有多么庞大的主导地位。现在它也只是……(听不清)它还是一家值得敬佩的公司,我相信 IBM 里还有很多人才。但这没用。就算你有才能又勤奋,还是得死。
贝基·奎克:
[亚瑟·卡恩]写信来,他是《每日新闻报》的股东,住在多伦多。他说,芒格先生,我们很多人都钦佩您、仰慕您,我想问,您一生中最钦佩和仰慕的人有哪些?他们身上有什么特别之处?
查理·芒格:
嗯,一些最优秀的人——我认为好市多的吉姆·西尼格是最适合做高管的人之一。顺便说一句,他没上过霍顿,也没上过哈佛商学院。他 18 岁就在一家商店开始工作,一路做到好市多的 CEO。实际上,他是一个叫索尔·普莱斯的人手下的创始人之一。我认为,他在自己一生和家庭中取得的成就,是世界商业史上最了不起的事情之一。吉姆·西尼格在他的一生中——他现在还很健在——但基本上他一辈子只做了一门生意。
他干得实在太好了,坦率地说,大事小事没有他不明白的。像詹姆斯·西尼格这样的人不多。如果让我为他那种职位另选一个人,格雷格·阿贝尔在某种程度上和詹姆斯·西尼格一样出色。他在处理人际关系、应对问题等方面有一种天赋。
我无法告诉你我有多钦佩那种有足够智慧……(听不清)经营公用事业的人。所以,如果他当监管者,他不会试图把成本转嫁出去——因为他可以做到。他试图……他试图按自己想要的方式去做。我不知道如果他当监管者而不是经营者会怎样。当然,那是经营公用事业的正确方式。但真正按这种方式经营的有几个?
所以,外面有一些令人敬佩的商界人士,我很幸运,我的生活中有不少这样的人。经营 TTI 的那家伙是个天才。TTI 是伯克希尔的子公司。《每日新闻报》……(听不清)如果你们还垄断着出版我们的判例之类的东西,你们会很幸运,就像 TTI 一样。好吧,TTI 刚刚创下了一些……(听不清)是一个人在经营它。他被解雇了,然后创立了这个生意。
贝基·奎克:
他从哪里被解雇的?
查理·芒格:
他发明了整个——某个国防承包商,我忘了是哪个。
贝基·奎克:
也许是通用动力?
查理·芒格:
对。我记不太清了。但他是个了不起的人,为我们经营这个生意。他不让我们给他加薪。有多少人跟自己的经理有这种问题?他们不让你——他们不允许你给他们加薪?
贝基·奎克:
这很少见。查理,我昨天和你的一位朋友聊过,他想问你的问题是:哪个品质在你一生中对你帮助最大?
Well, no, most of the -- think of the department stores that are gone, just chain after chain after chain in big downtown. They're not weakened, they're gone dead. And to have IBM have the huge position it once had in terms of other dominance. And now it's just one that also [Indiscernible]. And it's still an admirable place, I'm sure they have a lot of talent left in IBM. Doesn't help. You die even though you're talented and hard working. Rebecca Quick [Arthur Kahn] writes in, and he's a Daily Journal shareholder who lives in Toronto, and he says, Mr. Munger, well, many of us admire you and look up to you, I want to ask, who were some of the people you most admired and looked up to? What was it about them that made them so special? Charles Munger Well, some of the best people, I would argue that Jim Sinegal at Costco was about as well adapted for the executive where he got -- and by the way, he didn't go to [Horton] and he didn't go to the Harvard Business School. He started working at age 18 in a store, and he rose to be CEO at Costco. And in fact, he was a founder under a man named Sol Price. And I would argue that what he accomplished in his own life, family is one of the most remarkable things in the whole history of business in the history of the world. Jim Sinegal in his life -- he's still very much alive, but he had one business throughout his whole life basically. And he got so damn good at it, frankly nothing he didn't understand, large or small. And there aren't that many James Sinegal. I'll take somebody else for a job of the kind he has. Greg Abel in a way is just as good as James Sinegal was. He has a kind of genius for the way he handles people and so forth and problems. And I can't tell you how I admire somebody that has enough sense to kind of [indiscernible] as utilities. And so he were the regulator, he's not trying to pass on the cost because he can do it. He's trying to -- he's trying to do it the way he wanted. I don't know if he were the regulator instead of the executive. Of course, that's the right way to run a utility. But how many are really run that way? So there are some admirable business people out there, and I've been lucky to have quite a few of them involved in my life. The guy who ran TTI was a genius. TTI is a Berkshire subsidiary. You Daily Journal [indiscernible] lucky you'd be if we still had our monopoly on publishing our cases or something we'd be like TTI. Well, TTI has just marked some [indiscernible] and it was run by a guy. He got fired and created the business. Rebecca Quick He got fired from where? Charles Munger He invented the whole -- general -- some defense contractor, I forget which one. Rebecca Quick General Dynamics, maybe? Charles Munger Yes. I can't remember exactly. But he was a terrific guy and he ran the business for us. He wouldn't let us raise his pay. How many people have the problem with their managers. They won't let them -- they won't allow you to raise their pay? Rebecca Quick It's pretty rare. Charlie, I spoke with a friend of yours yesterday and his question that he had for you is what quality has helped you the most in life?
查理·芒格
很简单,理性。只要你不发疯,你就比 95% 的人有巨大优势,因为大多数人身上都有各种疯狂的行为模式。而你只要持续保持不疯,你的人生就有巨大优势。
在这里,耐心、延迟满足以及远见,就是不发疯的表现。这几乎是同步的。如果你还特别擅长兑现对他人的承诺,那你就会自动大幅提升你的人生资源和机会。道理就这么简单。那为什么没多少人做到呢?这是个有趣的问题。我不认为你能通过教育让孩子自动做到。如果你有十个孩子,你会发现有些孩子在这方面天生就比其他孩子强很多。
Charles Munger Well, that's easy, rationality. If you're just not crazy, you have a big advantage over 95% of the people because most people have all kinds of crazy patches. And if you just are consistently not crazy, you got a big advantage in life. And here, patient and gratification deferred and vision to being not crazy. That's practically a sync. And then if you're exceptionally good at satisfying your commitments to other people, then you've got -- you just automatically improved your resources and your chances in life enormously. And it's so simple. And why don't more people do it? It's an interesting question. I don't think you can educate your children to do it automatically. I think if you have 10 children, you'll have some that are a lot better than others in doing this. Rebecca Quick Is it harder with success, age, wealth to hold on to rationality? Charles Munger I think it's -- it's always hard when you get better other than if you get good at young and keep practicing. But it's never easy. If you had that question somebody asked, what one stock would you buy if you had to just rely on that one stock only? For your sole living expenses, you weren't allowed to have any income at all. You had to invest $1 million and live on that one stock. How many people would give an intelligent answer to that question in America? I don't think it's 1 in 100. They wouldn't even know how to begin. Rebecca Quick I think one of my favorite things that I've heard you say, and it's something I repeat often to a lot of people is whatever you are, age and wealth makes you more so. Came up with that a while ago. What led you to that -- and do you have any, I guess addendum to that? Charles Munger I think that's true that we are all tending. We all tend to get a little more so in every way. And I thought of that when I woke up this morning and put on my trousers. I really economize in buying those trousers. Why am I economizing in my trouser buying? But it's just -- so ingrained that I can't stop. Rebecca Quick And I'd like to circle back to a question on Daily Journal to wrap things up, Daily Journal and some of your holdings. This question comes in from [ Moshe Sable ], who says, in a previous shareholder meeting back around 2018, you spoke about BYD and said Journal Technologies is not quite BYD, but added that -- by the way, it might work out just like BYD. Now a few years on, do you still find Journal Technologies can turn out similar to BYD? Charles Munger Well, it won't be as fast as I guarantee you, and I won't be this great. I can also frankly guarantee you that. BYD is one of the most remarkable venture capital excesses in the history of the world. He was the eighth son of a peasant, had an older brother that recognizes a young kid was kind of a younger brother was a genius. And the older brothers sacrificed himself to get this peasant son into some good engineering school, and he became an engineering professor and then an entrepreneur. And how many times you get a story like that? And imagine buying a little bankrupt auto company in China and turning it into something that this year, they're going to sell more electrical cars than anybody else in the world, at a time when electrical cars are hot. And -- it's a remarkable story, but again, a very unusual human being Wang Chuanfu.
贝基·奎克
随着成功、年龄和财富的增长,保持理性是不是更难了?
查理·芒格
我觉得——这从来都不容易,除非你年轻时就把这事练好了,并且持续练习。但从来都不容易。如果有人问你这个问题:如果你只能靠一支股票,你必须用它来支付全部生活开支,不允许有任何其他收入。你必须投资 100 万美元,完全靠这支股票生活。美国有多少人能给出一个靠谱的答案?我觉得一百个人里都不到一个。他们根本不知道从何入手。
贝基·奎克
我最喜欢听你讲的一句话是——我也经常跟很多人重复——无论你现在是什么样,年龄和财富只会让你更加变成那样。这是你不久前说的。是什么让你得出这个结论的——还有,你现在想对它做点补充吗?
查理·芒格
我觉得确实如此,我们每个人都在向某种方向强化。我们各方面都会变得更“那样”。我今早起来穿裤子的时候就想到了这点。我买这条裤子时真的很节省。我为什么要在买裤子上省钱?但就是——已经根深蒂固了,我停不下来。
贝基·奎克
我想回到一个关于《每日日报》的问题来收尾。《每日日报》和你持有的一些股票。这个问题来自 Moshe Sable,他说:在 2018 年前后的一次股东会上,你谈到比亚迪,说 Journal Technologies 不算比亚迪,但补充说——顺便提一句,它可能会像比亚迪一样成功。几年过去了,你现在还认为 Journal Technologies 能变得跟比亚迪一样吗?
查理·芒格
嗯,我保证不会那么快,而且我也保证不会那么成功。比亚迪是世界历史上最非凡的风险投资超额回报案例之一。王传福是一个农民家的第八个儿子,他的大哥发现这个弟弟是个天才。于是大哥牺牲自己,让这个农家子弟上了好的工程大学,他后来成了工程学教授,然后成了企业家。
这种故事你能遇到几次?想象一下,收购一家中国的小型破产车企,把它变成今年电动汽车最热的时候,电动汽车销量超过世界上任何一家公司。这是一个非凡的故事,但再次说明,王传福是一个极其不寻常的人。
顺便说一句,如果没有王传福如此不寻常,这件事根本不会发生。
贝基·奎克
怎么个不寻常法?
查理·芒格
他——他是一个天生的天才,他一生都在用正确的方式思考,每天 17 个小时。他是个工作狂,他能做到普通人做不到的事。
贝基·奎克
这是你买过的最喜欢的股票吗?比亚迪还是 Costco?
查理·芒格
嗯,我会说——是的。我在伯克希尔从未参与过比比亚迪更好的投资,而且我只做过这一次。我们投入的 27 万美元现在值大约 80 亿美元,也许是 90 亿美元。这个回报率相当不错。
贝基·奎克
这可不只是“相当不错”。
查理·芒格
是的。我们不是总能做到。我们一辈子只做了一次。现在也有一些后来者做到了,但——我觉得没有哪笔投资能跟这相比。我做过一笔更好的投资。你知道是什么吗?我们付给一家猎头公司费用,让他们帮我们找一名员工,他来了,给我们带来了巨大回报。相比我们付给猎头公司的费用,这个人为我们创造的回报——那才是伯克希尔最好的投资——招他来所获得的回报。但同样,只有一次。
贝基·奎克
那也是一笔相当不错的投资。查理,非常感谢你今天花的时间。
查理·芒格
好的。我想我们聊完了。
贝基·奎克
而且你这么慷慨。
查理·芒格
我想我们的会面结束了。
贝基·奎克
接下来我们把画面交还给查理和史蒂夫。
查理·芒格
我还在,要再跟你们聊一会儿。我们一起共事很多年了。祝大家好运。再见。
史蒂文·迈希尔-琼斯
谢谢。谢谢,贝基。
贝基·奎克
谢谢你,史蒂文。谢谢你,查理。
And by the way, in his case, it wouldn't have happened if Wang Chuanfu hadn't been so unusual. Rebecca Quick Unusual how? Charles Munger He's -- he is a born genius and he's been thinking about the right things, 17 hours a day all his life. He's a workaholic and he can do things that ordinary human beings can't do. Rebecca Quick Is that the favorite stock you ever purchased? BYD or Costco? Charles Munger Well, I would say -- Yes. I have never helped do anything at Berkshire that was as good as BYD, and I only did it once. Our $270,000 investment there is worth about $8 billion now or maybe $9 billion. That's a pretty good rate of return. Rebecca Quick It's more than pretty good. Charles Munger Yes. We don't do it all the time. We do it once in a lifetime. Now we have had some others successors do, but -- but I don't think hardly anything like that. I made one better investment. You know what it was? We paid an executive recruiter to get us an employee, he came out with [indiscernible]. The return that [indiscernible] has made us compared to the amount we paid the executive recruiter. That was our best investment at Berkshire [indiscernible] recruiting for him to get [indiscernible]. But again, only happened once. Rebecca Quick Now that's quite an investment too. Charlie, I just want to thank you for all your time today. Charles Munger All right. We're all through, I guess. Rebecca Quick And being so generous. Charles Munger I guess our meeting is over. Rebecca Quick And we'll turn it back over to Charlie and Steve. Charles Munger I'm still here to do one more with you people. We've been at this quite a few years. So my best to all of you. Bye. Steven Myhill-Jones Thanks [indiscernible] Thank you, Becky. Rebecca Quick Thank you, Steven. Thank you, Charlie.