援助条款危及乌克兰
乌克兰正处于激进经济改革的边缘。直到最近，该国都没有连贯的经济政策：预算赤字失控，达到国内生产总值的 30%。在 1988 年经历超过 10,000% 的恶性通胀后，央行曾勇敢地尝试控制货币供应，但其效果仅仅是让工资和其他应付款项无法兑现。法规阻碍了经济活动，官方经济已基本瘫痪。1991–93 这三年间，GDP 下降了 39%，1994 年上半年再降 24%。能源供应变得断断续续，乌克兰同时对俄罗斯和土库曼斯坦累积了约 60 亿美元的未付债务。影子经济蓬勃发展，但即便如此，生活水平的下降也比俄罗斯严重得多。
Ukraine is poised on the verge of radical economic reform. Until recently it has had no coherent economic policy: the budget deficit ran out of control, reaching 30 percent of the gross domestic product. After a period of hyperinflation of more than 10,000 percent in 1988, the central bank made a valiant attempt to control the money supply, but the effect was merely to leave wages and other obligations unpaid. Regulations impeded economic activity and the official economy was largely incapacitated. The GDP fell by no less than 39 percent in the three years 1991–93 and a further 24 percent in the first half of 1994. Energy supplies became intermittent while Ukraine accumulated an unpaid debt of some $6bn against Russia and Turkmenistan. The shadow economy flourished but, even so, the decline in living standards was much more severe than in Russia.
上一任总统列昂尼德·克拉夫丘克意识到问题大到他难以应对，于是干脆放弃了努力。7 月 10 日以微弱多数当选的新总统列昂尼德·库奇马则硬气得多。他明白乌克兰若没有强有力的领导，就无法作为一个独立国家生存下去，并准备做出艰难决策。
The previous president, Leonid Kravchuk, realized that the problems were bigger than his ability to cope with them and therefore did not even try. The new president, Leonid Kuchma, elected by a narrow majority on July 10, is made of sterner stuff. He is aware that Ukraine cannot survive as an independent country without firm direction and is ready to take touch decisions.
幸运的是，七国集团（G7）首脑在那不勒斯峰会上向乌克兰抛出了救生索，承诺如果乌克兰实施经济改革，将提供 40 亿美元援助。库奇马总统决心抓住这条救生索。乌克兰早在 9 月 23 日就签署了一项价值 3.71 亿美元的结构转型融资协议，并正在与国际货币基金组织合作，争取在圣诞节前达成一项备用协议，该协议最终将再提供 12 亿美元。
Fortunately, the G7 heads of state threw a lifeline to Ukraine at their Naples summit by promising $4bn in aid if Ukraine undertakes economic reforms. President Kuchma is determined to seize that lifeline. Ukraine signed a structural transformation facility agreement worth $371m as early as September 23 and is working with the International Monetary Fund to reach a stand-by agreement before Christmas, which should eventually provide a further $1.2bn.
捐赠组织于 10 月 27 日在温尼伯举行了一次认捐会议，随后美国承诺提供 7000 万美元用于立即的国际收支支持，如果欧盟提供匹配资金，这一金额将增加到 1 亿美元。这笔资金需要在 1994 年底前到位，以确保来自俄罗斯和土库曼斯坦的天然气供应能够持续。但在欧盟内部，英国在法国的支持下，抵制了德国要求提供匹配资金的压力。其理由是，这将开创一个不利的先例，因为过去欧盟只有在与国际货币基金组织达成备用协议后才会出资。
The donor organizations held a pledging session in Winnipeg on October 27, and subsequently the US committed $70m for immediate balance of payments support to be increased to $100m if the European Union provided matching funds. The funds are needed before the end of 1994 in order to assure continuing gas supplies from Russia and Turkmenistan. But within the EU, the UK, supported by France, resisted German pressure to provide matching funds. Its argument was that this would create an undesirable precedent because in the past the EU chipped in only after a stand-by agreement had been agreed with the IMF.
这个问题将在 12 月 5 日欧盟 Ecofin 会议上再次被提出。欧盟在 1994 年底前需提供的净额仅为 2000 万美元，因为 1 亿美元中有 8000 万美元将被扣留用于清偿未了债务。这 2000 万美元甚至略低于我 1994 年通过旗下基金会向乌克兰提供的援助金额。日本将其出资与否取决于欧盟的行动，美国也同样采取了附加条件的方式，其出资额为 3000 万美元。
The issue will come up again at the Ecofin meeting of the EU on December 5. The net amount to be provided by the EU before the end of 1994 is only $20m, because $80m of the $100m is to be withheld to settle outstanding liabilities. This $20m barely exceeds the amount I provided in aid to Ukraine through my foundations during 1994. Japan has made its contribution conditional on action by the European Union and so did the US to the tune of $30m.
我简直无法想象，英国会任由援助计划瓦解，从而危及乌克兰作为一个独立、民主且致力于改革的国家实现复兴。乌克兰的解体将带来可怕得不敢想象的后果。
I find it inconceivable that the UK would allow the aid package to unravel and endanger the revival of the Ukraine as an independent, democratic and reform-minded country. The disintegration of Ukraine would have consequences too horrendous to contemplate.