恐惧时再投资

2009 · 随笔 · 原文约 834 词

译文与英文原文逐段对齐可在本页展开英文，也可打开发布者原址核对上下文。

GMO 文章 2009 年 3 月在恐慌中再投资杰里米·格兰瑟姆

1999 年，放弃在泡沫中赚钱、在崩盘时过早买入，心理上很痛苦。但作为回报，你在上升途中赚到钱的同时，也暴露于职业风险——那种看起来像个老古董的风险。同样地，今天，放弃你越来越珍爱的现金，既痛苦又有职业风险，尤其是在这个前所未有的流动性枯竭市场中，现金又如此难以筹集。随着这场危机达到高潮，原本理性的人开始预言世界末日，他们手里有大量可怕且精确的数据，这更强化了你谨慎的正确性。每一次下跌都会让现金变得更美好，直到像我们一些人在 1974 年经历的那样，“终极瘫痪”降临。那些过度投资的人会呆若木鸡，只能坐着祈祷。少数几个看起来聪明绝顶、手握大把现金的人，也不愿意轻易放弃自己的聪明劲儿。所以几乎所有人都在观望等待，惯性开始像混凝土一样凝固。通常，那些持有大量现金的人会错失市场复苏的很大一部分。终极瘫痪只有一个解药：你必须制定一个再投资的作战计划，并坚持执行。既然每一个动作都必须克服瘫痪，我建议采取几个大步，而不是许多小步。能在低点迈出单一巨大的一步当然很好，但没有与魔鬼签订合同的情况下，几次大动作会更安全。这正是我们在 GMO 所做的。10 月份，我们做了一次非常大的再投资，将仓位调整到中性仓位和最低仓位之间的中间位置，并且我们有一个基于未来市场下跌的进一步操作日程表。明确界定什么条件会让你满仓，这一点尤其重要。如果没有类似的计划，那就准备好让你的委员会（以及你自己）的投资热情随着市场下跌而消退。你必须让他们现在就同意——在僵硬状态完全固化之前赶紧行动——因为在我写这篇文章的时候，我们正在进入那个区域。记住，你永远抓不住最低点。明智的基于价值的投资者总是卖得太早。同样地，现在，我们相信标普 500 指数的公允价值是 900 点，比今天的价格高出 30%。全球股票甚至更便宜。（我们对当前价值的估计是基于正常市盈率应用于正常利润率的假设。）我们对各类股票的 7 年预期回报率在扣除通胀后为 +10% 到 +13%，这是基于假设市场从今天的环境用 7 年时间回归正常状态。而一年前，这些预测还全是负数！不幸的是，这也与 1974 年低点时 +15% 的预测相当，正因如此，我们猜测标普 500 指数仍有 50% 的概率跌破 600 点。生活很简单：如果你过早投入太多，你会后悔；“经济这么差，市场自由落体，历史书又在尖叫着说会过度下跌，你怎么能这么做？”另一方面，如果你在夸夸其谈可观潜在回报之后投入太少，而市场又反弹了，那你活该被枪毙。我们已经试图对这些相互冲突的成本和遗憾进行建模。你也应该试试。如果你做不到，一个简单清晰的作战计划——哪怕直接来自你的直觉——在崩盘中也将远胜于没有计划。反常的是，追求最优解是一个陷阱和幻觉；它只会加剧你的瘫痪。投资者必须对快速下跌的价格做出反应，因为大事可能变化很快。1933 年 6 月，远在所有银行倒闭或失业率达到顶峰之前，标普 500 指数在 6 个月内反弹了 105%。同样地，1974 年，英国市场在 5 个月内反弹了 148%！那时，你拿着大笔心爱的现金，会是什么感觉？最后，要知道，市场不是在看到隧道尽头的光明时转向的。它是在一切看起来漆黑一片，但只是比前一天稍稍不那么黑的时候转向的。

GMO ARTICLE March 2009 Reinvesting When Terrified Jeremy Grantham It was psychologically painful in 1999 to give up making in bubbles and buy too early in busts. But in return, you money on the way up and to expose yourself to the career may make some important extra money on the roundtrip risk that comes with looking like an old fuddy duddy. as well as lowering the average risk exposure. Similarly today, it is both painful and career risky to part with your increasingly beloved cash, particularly since cash For the record, we now believe the S&P is worth 900 at has been so hard to raise in this market of unprecedented fair value or 30% above today’s price. Global equities illiquidity. As this crisis climaxes, formerly reasonable are even cheaper. (Our estimates of current value are people will start to predict the end of the world, armed based on the assumption of normal P/Es being applied to with plenty of terrifying and accurate data that will serve normal profit margins.) Our 7-year estimated returns for to reinforce the wisdom of your caution. Every decline the various equity categories are in the +10 to +13% range will enhance the beauty of cash until, as some of us after inflation based on an assumption of a 7-year move experienced in 1974, ‘terminal paralysis’ sets in. Those from today’s environment back to normal conditions. who were over invested will be catatonic and just sit and This compares to a year ago when they were all negative! pray. Those few who look brilliant, oozing cash, will not Unfortunately it also compares to a +15% forecast at the want to easily give up their brilliance. So almost everyone 1974 low, and because of that our guess is that there is still is watching and waiting with their inertia beginning to set a 50/50 chance of crossing 600 on the S&P 500. like concrete. Typically, those with a lot of cash will miss Life is simple: if you invest too much too soon you a very large chunk of the market recovery. will regret it; “How could you have done this with the There is only one cure for terminal paralysis: you economy so bad, the market in free fall, and the history absolutely must have a battle plan for reinvestment and books screaming about overruns?” On the other hand, stick to it. Since every action must overcome paralysis, if you invest too little after talking about handsome what I recommend is a few large steps, not many small potential returns and the market rallies, you deserve to ones. A single giant step at the low would be nice, but be shot. We have tried to model these competing costs without holding a signed contract with the devil, several and regrets. You should try to do the same. If you can’t, big moves would be safer. This is what we have been a simple clear battle plan – even if it comes directly from doing at GMO. We made one very large reinvestment your stomach – will be far better in a meltdown than none move in October, taking us to about half way between at all. Perversely, seeking for optimality is a snare and neutral and minimum equities, and we have a schedule delusion; it will merely serve to increase your paralysis. for further moves contingent on future market declines. It Investors must respond to rapidly falling prices for events is particularly important to have a clear definition of what can change fast. In June 1933, long before all the banks it will take for you to be fully invested. Without a similar had failed or unemployment had peaked, the S&P rallied program, be prepared for your committee’s enthusiasm 105% in 6 months. Similarly, in 1974 it rallied 148% in to invest (and your own for that matter) to fall with 5 months in the UK! How would you have felt then with the market. You must get them to agree now – quickly your large and beloved cash reserves? Finally, be aware before rigor mortis sets in – for we are entering that zone that the market does not turn when it sees light at the as I write. Remember that you will never catch the low. end of the tunnel. It turns when all looks black, but just a Sensible value-based investors will always sell too early subtle shade less black than the day before.

Disclaimer: The views expressed are the views of Jeremy Grantham through the period ending March 4, 2009, and are subject to change at any time based on mar-ket and other conditions. This is not an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security and should not be construed as such. Any forward looking state-ments are based on the reasonable beliefs of GMO and are not a guarantee of future performance. Nothing in this article should be considered investment advice. Copyright © 2009 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved.