恐惧时再投资

2009 · 随笔 · 原文约 833 词

译文与英文原文逐段对齐可在本页展开英文，也可打开发布者原址核对上下文。

GMO 文章，2009 年 3 月：《恐惧中再投资》

杰里米·格兰瑟姆

1999 年，放弃在泡沫中赚钱、在崩盘中过早买入，在心理上很痛苦。作为回报，你在上升途中赚到了钱，也让自己暴露在职业风险中——那种看上去像个老古董所带来的职业风险。同样在今天，舍弃你日益珍爱的现金，既痛苦又有职业风险，尤其是在这个流动性空前的市场上，现金如此难以筹集。随着这场危机走向高潮，原本理性的人开始预言世界末日，他们带着大量可怕而准确的数据，这些数据会强化你谨慎行事的明智。每一次下跌都会让现金显得更加美好，直到像我们一些人在 1974 年经历过的那样——“终极瘫痪”降临。那些仓位过重的人会目瞪口呆，只能坐着祈祷。少数看上去很聪明、现金充裕的人，不会轻易放弃他们的“英明”。所以几乎所有人都在观望等待，他们的惰性开始像水泥一样凝固。通常，那些手握大量现金的人，会错过市场复苏中相当大的一部分涨幅。

“终极瘫痪”只有一种解药：你必须有一个再投资的作战计划，并严格执行。既然每一步行动都必须克服瘫痪，我建议采取几大步，而不是许多小步。在最低点迈出一大步当然很好，但如果没有和魔鬼签下合同，那么几次大动作会更安全。这就是我们在 GMO 正在做的事情。我们在 10 月份做了一次非常大的再投资操作，让我们的仓位从最低股票配置与中性配置之间的一半位置向前推进，并且我们制定了一个计划，根据未来市场的下跌情况，采取后续行动。明确什么样的条件会让你满仓投入，这一点特别重要。如果没有类似的计划，请准备好让你的委员会的投资热情（以及你自己本人的）随着市场一起下降。你必须让他们现在——在僵硬状态到来之前——就达成一致，因为在我写这篇文章时，我们正在进入那个区域。记住，你永远抓不到最低点。明智的价值型投资者总是卖得太早，买得也太早。

记录在案：我们现在认为标普 500 指数公允价值为 900 点，比当前价格高出 30%。全球股票甚至更便宜。（我们对当前价值的估计基于一个假设：正常市盈率适用于正常利润率。）我们对各类股票的 7 年预期回报率，在扣除通胀后，在 +10% 到 +13% 之间，这个预测基于一个假设：市场将从当前环境在 7 年内回归正常。相比之下，一年前这些回报率还全部是负数！不幸的是，这个预测也低于 1974 年低点时的 +15% 预测，正因为如此，我们猜测标普 500 指数仍有 50% 的可能性跌穿 600 点。

生活很简单：如果你投入太多、太快，你会后悔——“经济这么差、市场自由落体、历史书都在大喊‘过头了’，你怎么还能这么做？”另一方面，如果你大谈可观潜在回报、市场反弹后却投入太少，那你活该被枪毙。我们试图对这些相互冲突的成本和悔恨进行建模。你也应该试着这样做。如果你做不到，那么一个简单明了的作战计划——哪怕它直接来自你的直觉——在崩盘中也要远远好过什么都没有。反讽的是，追求最优是一个陷阱和错觉；它只会加剧你的瘫痪。投资者必须对快速下跌的价格做出反应，因为事态可以变化得很快。1932 年，远在所有银行倒闭或失业率达到顶峰之前，标普 500 指数在 2 个月内上涨了 111%。同样，1974 年，英国股市在 5 个月内上涨了 148%！那时，你手里捧着你那大笔心爱的现金，会作何感想？最后，要意识到市场不会在看到隧道尽头的光明时掉头。它会在看起来一片漆黑、但比前一天仅仅浅了那么一丝黑的时候，掉头。

GMO ARTICLE March 2009 Reinvesting When Terrified Jeremy Grantham It was psychologically painful in 1999 to give up making in bubbles and buy too early in busts. But in return, you money on the way up and to expose yourself to the career may make some important extra money on the roundtrip risk that comes with looking like an old fuddy duddy. as well as lowering the average risk exposure. Similarly today, it is both painful and career risky to part with your increasingly beloved cash, particularly since cash For the record, we now believe the S&P is worth 900 at has been so hard to raise in this market of unprecedented fair value or 30% above today’s price. Global equities illiquidity. As this crisis climaxes, formerly reasonable are even cheaper. (Our estimates of current value are people will start to predict the end of the world, armed based on the assumption of normal P/Es being applied to with plenty of terrifying and accurate data that will serve normal profit margins.) Our 7-year estimated returns for to reinforce the wisdom of your caution. Every decline the various equity categories are in the +10 to +13% range will enhance the beauty of cash until, as some of us after inflation based on an assumption of a 7-year move experienced in 1974, ‘terminal paralysis’ sets in. Those from today’s environment back to normal conditions. who were over invested will be catatonic and just sit and This compares to a year ago when they were all negative! pray. Those few who look brilliant, oozing cash, will not Unfortunately it also compares to a +15% forecast at the want to easily give up their brilliance. So almost everyone 1974 low, and because of that our guess is that there is still is watching and waiting with their inertia beginning to set a 50/50 chance of crossing 600 on the S&P 500. like concrete. Typically, those with a lot of cash will miss Life is simple: if you invest too much too soon you a very large chunk of the market recovery. will regret it; “How could you have done this with the There is only one cure for terminal paralysis: you economy so bad, the market in free fall, and the history absolutely must have a battle plan for reinvestment and books screaming about overruns?” On the other hand, stick to it. Since every action must overcome paralysis, if you invest too little after talking about handsome what I recommend is a few large steps, not many small potential returns and the market rallies, you deserve to ones. A single giant step at the low would be nice, but be shot. We have tried to model these competing costs without holding a signed contract with the devil, several and regrets. You should try to do the same. If you can’t, big moves would be safer. This is what we have been a simple clear battle plan – even if it comes directly from doing at GMO. We made one very large reinvestment your stomach – will be far better in a meltdown than none move in October, taking us to about half way between at all. Perversely, seeking for optimality is a snare and neutral and minimum equities, and we have a schedule delusion; it will merely serve to increase your paralysis. for further moves contingent on future market declines. It Investors must respond to rapidly falling prices for events is particularly important to have a clear definition of what can change fast. In 1932, long before all the banks had it will take for you to be fully invested. Without a similar failed or unemployment had peaked, the S&P rallied program, be prepared for your committee’s enthusiasm 111% in 2 months. Similarly, in 1974 it rallied 148% in to invest (and your own for that matter) to fall with 5 months in the UK! How would you have felt then with the market. You must get them to agree now – quickly your large and beloved cash reserves? Finally, be aware before rigor mortis sets in – for we are entering that zone that the market does not turn when it sees light at the as I write. Remember that you will never catch the low. end of the tunnel. It turns when all looks black, but just a Sensible value-based investors will always sell too early subtle shade less black than the day before.

Disclaimer: The views expressed are the views of Jeremy Grantham through the period ending March 4, 2009, and are subject to change at any time based on mar-ket and other conditions. This is not an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security and should not be construed as such. Any forward looking state-ments are based on the reasonable beliefs of GMO and are not a guarantee of future performance. Nothing in this article should be considered investment advice. Copyright © 2009 by GMO LLC. All rights reserved.