卓越非凡
卓越的季度信函 2024 年第一季度 集中投资版 你的主动型基金经理比他们看起来更有能力 执行摘要 标普 500 指数在过去十年中变得越来越集中,前七大股票现在占总市值的 28%,而这些股票的回报率远远超过指数中的普通股票。主动型基金经理系统性地低配了这些最大的股票,高集中度、高主动份额的基金经理尤其如此。如果基准指数的目的是成为衡量经理是否具备能力的公平标尺,那么市值加权指数对大多数主动型经理来说就不是一个好基准,而且随着指数变得越来越集中,这一点也越来越成立。历史表明,未来十年很可能会出现近期模式的逆转,标普 500 指数市值加权版本的表现将逊于等权版本。在这种环境下,主动型经理相对于标普 500 指数和其他市值加权基准的表现会突然好得多。
本·英克和约翰·皮斯 | 资产配置 耐心被普遍认为是投资中的一种美德。许多客户和投资委员会以自己愿意在业绩困难时期继续信任高确信度的基金经理而自豪,相信只要有足够的时间,能力终将显现。但即使是耐心的投资者也有其极限,今年秋天我们看到来自机构的大量问题,询问是否到了放弃主动型管理的时候,至少在美国大盘股领域是这样。这让我们有点意外,因为我们的美国大盘股产品在过去几年中实际上表现优于其基准。但稍加挖掘就让我们意识到,大多数客户在主动型美国股票策略上的体验相当令人失望。根据晨星的数据,去年 74% 的美国大盘股混合型基金经理跑输了标普 500 指数。这还不只是糟糕的一年。截至 2023 年的十年间,惊人的 90.2% 的美国大盘股混合型基金经理跑输了他们的基准。在 2022 年主动型经理短暂喘息之后(当时 53% 的美国大盘股混合型经理跑赢了基准),2023 年似乎成了许多客户的最后一根稻草。你怎么能责怪他们呢?十年在投资界就是一辈子。如果过去十年 90.2% 的美国大盘股经理都跑输了基准,这难道不是市场有效的无可辩驳的证据吗?
然而,现实情况有所不同。正如我们将看到的,标普 500 指数和其他美国大盘股基准在过去一年几乎无法战胜,在过去十年也几乎同样难以战胜,其原因在于跑赢的股票的性质。美国股市一直在稳步变得集中。当最大的股票表现最好时,主动型经理要想跟上指数就极其困难,更不用说跑赢了。要跑赢指数,就必须看起来与指数不同。我们倾向于从经理持有的股票角度来思考这种差异,但正如克雷默斯和佩塔吉斯托的主动份额指标所指出的,经理选择不持有的股票与持有的股票同样重要。为了在投资组合中为经理想要超配的股票腾出空间,他们必然要在其他股票上拥有同等且对冲的低配。虽然主动份额将这一点设想为在基准之上运行一个多空投资组合,但现实是这是一个高度受限的多空组合。经理可以按自己的意愿超配他们最喜欢的股票,但对于纯多头经理来说,低配受限于这些股票在基准中的权重。经理最大的低配不会是它们最不喜欢的股票,而是基准中它们不太喜欢以至于没有足够权重的最大股票。结果是,纯多头主动型经理几乎总是对其基准中的最大股票存在显著偏见。捐赠基金和基金会钟爱的那些极高主动份额的“高确信度”经理尤其如此,他们的主动份额通常在 95% 左右。在历史上大部分时期,使投资组合低配最大股票一直是有利可图的。但在过去十年,尤其是过去一年,这成了一场灾难。
GMO 的质量策略和美国股票策略在截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日的三年期内,净收益分别比标普 500 指数和标普综合 1500 指数高出 +1.1% 和 +2.3%。主动份额通过将投资组合视为基准之上的多空组合来衡量其与基准的差异。主动份额是该多空组合的名义规模(多头规模加空头规模的一半)。请参阅《你的基金有多主动?一种预测表现的新指标》(克雷默斯和佩塔吉斯托,2009 年)。多空和股票增强策略的很大一部分魅力在于,经理们摆脱了这一限制。一旦零不再是投资组合权重的下限,经理就可以根据他们的确信度,而不是公司的规模来调整其主动仓位。
MAGNIFICENTLY QUARTERLY LETTER 1Q 2024 CONCENTRATED Your active managers are more competent EXECUTIVE SUMMARY than they look The S&P 500 has become an increasingly concentrated index over the past decade, Ben Inker and John Pease | Asset Allocation with the top seven stocks now comprising 28% of the total, and the returns of those Patience is widely understood to be a virtue in investing. Many clients and investment committees stocks far outpacing that of the average pride themselves on their willingness to stick with high conviction managers through rough patches stock in the index. Active managers are in performance in the belief that given sufficient time, skill will tell. But even patient investors systematically underweight the very have their limits, and this fall we saw an avalanche of questions coming in from institutions largest stocks, and this is particularly as to whether it is time to abandon active management, at least in U.S. large caps. We were a true of concentrated high active share managers. If the purpose of a benchmark little surprised by this, since our U.S. large cap equity products have actually done well against is to be a fair measuring stick to determine their benchmarks over the last few years.1 But a little digging made us realize that most clients’ whether a manager has skill, a market experience with their active U.S. equity strategies has been pretty disappointing. According to capitalization-weighted index is not a good Morningstar, 74% of U.S. large cap blend managers underperformed the S&P 500 last year. And it benchmark for most active managers, wasn’t just a single bad year. The decade ending in 2023 saw a stunning 90.2% of U.S. large cap and this becomes increasingly true as the blend managers underperform their benchmarks. After a brief respite for active managers in 2022, index becomes more concentrated. History when 53% of U.S. large cap blend managers outperformed, it seems as if 2023 may be the last suggests that the next decade is likely to straw for many clients. How can you blame them? A decade is a lifetime in the investment world. see a reversal of the recent pattern with If 90.2% of managers underperformed their benchmarks in U.S. large caps over the last decade, the capitalization-weighted version of surely that is irrefutable evidence that the market is efficient? the S&P 500 underperforming the equal-weighted version. In such an environment, The reality is somewhat different, however. As we will see, the reason why the S&P 500 and other U.S. active managers will suddenly look much large cap equity benchmarks have been close to impossible to beat over the last year and almost as better versus the S&P 500 and other hard to beat over the last decade stems from the nature of the stocks that have outperformed. The capitalization-weighted benchmarks. U.S. equity market has been growing steadily more concentrated. When the very largest stocks are the best performing ones, it is an extremely difficult environment for active managers to keep up with, let alone outperform. To outperform an index, it is necessary to look different from it. We tend to think of that difference in terms of the stocks that a manager owns, but as Cremers and Petajisto’s active share measure points out, what managers choose not to own is just as important as what GMO's Quality and U.S. Equity Strategies outperformed by they do own.2 In order to make space in a portfolio for the stocks a manager wants to be overweight, +1.1% and +2.3% on a net basis vs. the S&P 500 and S&P they by necessity must have an equal and offsetting underweight in other stocks. While active share Composite 1500 Indexes, respectively, for the 3-year period ended 12/31/2023. envisions this as running a long/short portfolio on top of the benchmark, the reality is that it is a 2 highly constrained long/short. A manager can choose to be as overweight as they would like in their Active share measures a portfolio’s difference from a benchmark by envisioning the portfolio as a long/short favorite stocks, but the underweights for a long-only manager are constrained by the weights of those portfolio on top of that benchmark. The active share is the stocks in the benchmark.3 The biggest underweight for a manager will not be their least favorite notional size of that long/short portfolio (1/2 the size of the longs plus the shorts). See How Active Is Your Fund stock, but the largest stock in the benchmark that they don’t like enough to have a substantial weight Manager? A New Measure That Predicts Performance in. The upshot is that long-only active managers almost always have substantial bias against the very (Cremers and Petajisto 2009). largest stocks in their benchmarks. This is particularly true of the extremely high active share “high A big part of the charm of long/short and equity extension conviction” managers beloved by endowments and foundations, who commonly have active shares strategies is that managers are freed from this constraint. in the 95% range.4 For most of history, biasing portfolios against the very largest stocks has been Once zero ceases to be the lower bound of portfolio weights, a manager can scale their active positions lucrative. But over the last decade, and particularly the last year, it has been a disaster. according to their conviction, not a company’s size.
一个狭窄的十年
如果一位基金经理与基准指数的重合度只有 5%,那么他们在基准指数中必然对所有或几乎所有权重较大的股票都大幅低配。如果你看看标普 500 指数(或任何市值加权指数)中最大的 10 家公司,这些股票在过去十年中的表现很可能会显著超越大盘。世界上最大的公司,要么是起步时就规模庞大并跟上了竞争步伐,要么是起步时规模较小但表现超过了几乎所有的更大公司。过去十年无疑就是这种情况。
4 A narrow decade If a manager has only 5% overlap with their benchmark, they definitionally have large underweights in either all or almost If you look at the 10 largest companies in the S&P 500 (or any capitalization-weighted index, for all stocks that have a large weight in the benchmark. that matter), odds are that the stocks of those companies meaningfully outperformed the broad Magnificently Concentrated: Your active managers are more competent than they look | p2 market over the preceding decade. The largest companies in the world either started out large and kept up with their competition, or they started out small and outperformed most everyone who was larger. This was certainly the case over the last decade.
但从前瞻的角度看,大通常一点都不美。图 1 显示了标普 500 指数中市值最大的 10 只股票在排名之后一年的相对回报率。
On a forward-looking basis, however, big is generally anything but beautiful. Exhibit 1 shows the relative return of the 10 largest stocks in the S&P 500 in the year following that ranking.
附录 1前 10 大股票对比标普 500 指数
5%
相对收益
0%
-5%
第 1 大 第 2 大 第 3 大 第 4 大 第 5 大 第 6 大 第 7 大 第 8 大 第 9 大 第 10 大
数据区间 1957–2023 年 | 来源:Compustat、Standard & Poors
EXHIBIT 1TOP 10 STOCKS VS. S&P 500 5% Relative Return 0% -5% Top 1 Top 2 Top 3 Top 4 Top 5 Top 6 Top 7 Top 8 Top 9 Top 10 Data from 1957-2023 | Source: Compustat, Standard & Poors.
前十名中有九家的平均表现落后于市场。5 前十名历史表现不佳,原因归结为两大回报来源——估值扩张与基本面增长——对于这些公司而言,比普通公司更难实现。那些市值最大的股票之所以能成为最大,通常是因为变得昂贵,而这种反价值倾向在历史上代价相当高昂,解释了这些公司大部分相对回报偏弱的原因。6 此外,在估值已经很高的情况下要想取得良好回报,就需要超常的盈利增长。当一家公司在其所处行业中已经占据可观的市场份额和利润份额时,实现超常增长往往比正常情况下困难得多。如果公司的增长引起了反垄断监管机构的注意,则尤其困难。
Nine of the top 10 have underperformed on average.5 The historical underperformance of the top 10 comes down to the two main sources of return – valuation expansion and fundamental growth – being harder to achieve than for your average company. The largest stocks generally become the largest by way of becoming expensive, and this anti-value tilt has historically been quite costly, explaining most of these companies’ poor relative returns.6 Good returns in the face of high valuations, moreover, require exceptional earnings growth. When a company already has a substantial market and profit share of the industries in which it operates, unusual growth tends to be significantly harder than normal. It can be particularly hard if the company’s growth catches the attention of anti-trust regulators.
规模最大的股票当然并非始终跑输,但从平均水平看,它们明显落后于标普 500 指数的平均股票,这一点我们在图表 2 中可以看到。
The largest stocks certainly don’t underperform all of the time, but on average, they have substantially trailed the average S&P 500 stock, as we can see in Exhibit 2.
附录 2标普 500 指数 —— 前 10 大 vs. 490 只等权重股票 1.00 - 自 1957 年以来每年 -2.4% + 自 2013 年以来每年 +4.9% 0.33 这并不是说投资指数中第二大公司是一个好主意。2013 年之前,第二大股票相对于标普 500 指数经历了长达 20 年的下跌。0.11
EXHIBIT 2S&P500 – TOP 10 VS. 490 EQUAL WEIGHTED 1.00 -2.4% per year since 1957 +4.9% per year since 2013 0.33 This isn’t to say that investing in the second largest company in the index is a good idea. Prior to 2013 the 0.11 second largest stock was in the throes of a 20-year drawdown relative to the S&P 500.
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 6 只计算等权重相对结果 我们可以从四个重要因子:市场、规模、价值和质量的回归分析中看出这一点。历史上,排名前七的股票表现一直低于我们根据这些特征所预期的水平。数据来自 1957–2023 年 | 来源:Compustat、标准普尔
1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 6 EW Relative We can see this from a regression of returns on four important factors: market, size, value, and quality. The top seven have historically underperformed what we would Data from 1957-2023 | Source: Compustat, Standard & Poors expect given these characteristics.
精美地集中:你的主动型基金经理比看起来更有能力 | 第 3 页 自 1957 年以来,标普 500 指数中市值最大的 10 只股票,每年跑输其余 490 只股票等权重指数 2.4%。但过去十年明显偏离了这一趋势,市值最大的 10 只股票平均每年大幅跑赢 4.9%。
Magnificently Concentrated: Your active managers are more competent than they look | p3 Since 1957, the 10 largest stocks in the S&P 500 have underperformed an equal-weighted index of the remaining 490 stocks by 2.4% per year. But the last decade has been a very notable departure from that trend, with the largest 10 outperforming by a massive 4.9% per year on average.
壮观且集中。市值加权跑输基准的持续下行趋势之所以被打破,全赖“七圣徒”的壮观表现。作为超大市值股票,它们的超额收益几乎无可匹敌。过去十年间,它们连续跑赢市场,唯有 2022 年是例外。到了 2023 年,随着这个称号成为流行词汇,它们以几乎令人难以置信的 60 个百分点跑赢标普 500 指数。
Magnificent and concentrated The break in the consistent downward trend of cap-weighted underperformance reflects the magnificence of the Magnificent Seven.7 As far as mega caps go, they have been practically unparalleled in their outperformance. They strung together a series of market-beating performances over the last 10 years, with 2022 being the single year in which they didn’t beat the market. In 2023, as their monicker became part of the common lexicon, they outperformed the S&P 500 by an almost unimaginable 60%.
附录 3七圣徒 vs. 标普 500 指数
80% 60% 40% 相对回报 20% 0% -20% -40%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
数据区间为 2014—2023 年 | 数据来源:Compustat、Standard & Poors
这一表现部分源于本十年之初超大市值股票的异常便宜。例如,2013 年,苹果、微软和谷歌三家的合并市盈率仅为 15 倍,而当时市场的市盈率高出约 25%。这一趋势的简单反转本身就是一股可爱的顺风(尽管实际发生的远不止是反转)。这些公司,连同它们同样卓越的同行们,还设法以惊人的速度实现了盈利增长。微软和亚马逊通过自我重塑做到了这一点。苹果、Alphabet、Meta、英伟达和特斯拉则接管了各自所处的主要行业。它们中的中等规模企业变成了庞然大物,而大企业则变成了巨人。
EXHIBIT 3THE MAGNIFICENT 7 VS. THE S&P 500 80% 60% 40% Relative Return 20% 0% -20% -40% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Data from 2014-2023 | Source: Compustat, Standard & Poors This performance came in part from the unusual cheapness of mega caps at the start of the decade. Apple, Microsoft, and Google, for instance, boasted a combined price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15x in 2013, while the market’s P/E was about 25% higher. A simple reversal of this trend was a lovely tailwind (although much more than a reversal occurred). These companies, alongside their similarly magnificent brethren, also managed to grow earnings at a breakneck pace. Microsoft and Amazon did so by reinventing themselves. Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Nvidia, and Tesla took over their primary industries. The medium-sized businesses among them became huge, and the large ones became giants.
大型公司持续且毫不减弱的超额表现,导致标普 500 指数在过去十年里显著集中化。指数中前七名公司的权重占比达到 28%,而十年前这一比例仅为 13%。标普 500 指数的总体集中度——我们可以用赫芬达尔-赫希曼指数(HHI)来衡量——如今相当于一个等权重、59 只股票的投资组合。十年前,该指数的分散化程度是现在的两倍以上。我们从未在任何十年期内目睹过分散化程度出现如此大的下降(或上升)。
The continued, unrelenting outperformance of very large companies has led to the S&P 500 becoming significantly more concentrated over the decade. The top seven names in the index comprise 28%, up from 13% a decade earlier. The S&P 500’s total concentration, which we can measure using a Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (or HHI), is equivalent today to that of an equal-weighted, 59-stock portfolio. Ten years ago, the index was more than twice as diversified. We have never seen – over any 10-year period – a decline (or increase) in diversification of the magnitude we have just witnessed.
苹果、微软、Alphabet、亚马逊、英伟达、Meta 和特斯拉。
Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla.
精美集中:你的主动管理型基金经理的能力比看起来更强 | 第 4 页 图表 4:标普 500 指数有效持股数量(1/HHI)
有效持股数量
60
59
1957 1963 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999 2005 2011 2017 2023
数据来源于 1957-2023 年 | 来源:Compustat、标准普尔
主动管理型基金的闹剧
这些超大盘股的非凡表现以及随之而来的标普 500 指数集中化,似乎已经与市场变得更加有效混为一谈了。这种混淆之所以发生,是因为在“七”字前面加上“圣”字的同一个十年里,只有 9.8% 的美国大盘股“核心”主动管理型基金经理跑赢了他们的基准指数。虽然这些事件确实相关,但它们实际上与市场有效性关系不大(我们计划在下一封季度信函中探讨这个主题)。
Magnificently Concentrated: Your active managers are more competent than they look | p4 EXHIBIT 4: EFFECTIVE # OF NAMES (1/HHI) IN THE S&P 500 Effective # of Names 60 59 1957 1963 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999 2005 2011 2017 2023 Data from 1957-2023 | Source: Compustat, Standard & Poors The active horror show This extraordinary performance of the mega caps and the consequent concentration of the S&P 500 seems to have become conflated with markets becoming more efficient. This conflation occurs because over the same decade that appended “Magnificent” to “Seven,” only 9.8% of U.S. large cap “core” active managers outperformed their benchmarks.8 While these events are certainly connected, they in fact have very little bearing on market efficiency (a topic which we plan to broach in our next Quarterly Letter).
由于绝大多数主动型基金经理对最大市值股票的配置比例远低于基准权重,当这些大市值股票表现出色时,就会对主动型基金经理的相对业绩构成严重的逆风。如果我们标普 500 指数等权重表现与市值加权表现进行对比,同时对照 2014 年至 2022 年间美国大盘核心主动型基金经理年度跑赢基准的百分比(数据来自晨星),就会发现这两组(坦白说较短的时间序列)数据之间的相关性超过 50%。
Because the vast majority of active managers are substantially underweight the largest stocks, periods when those stocks outperform are a serious headwind for active managers’ relative performance. If we contrast the equal-weighted vs. cap-weighted performance of the S&P 500 with the annual percentage of U.S. large cap core active managers outperforming their benchmark from 2014 to 2022 (according to Morningstar), we find that the correlation of these (admittedly short) two series is north of 50%.
虽然晨星尚未公布 2023 年全年的业绩,但等权重的标普 500 指数落后市值加权版本 11.5%(史上第二差的表现),这暗示投资委员会在回顾过去一年旗下美国主动权益投资组合相对标普 500 指数的表现时,眉头将会紧锁。不过,有些眉头或许值得舒展一下。
While Morningstar has not yet published its results for the full year of 2023, the equal-weighted S&P 500 trailing its cap-weighted counterpart by 11.5% (the second worst showing of all time) suggests that investment committees will have their brows furrowed when reviewing their U.S. active equity portfolios’ performance vs. the S&P 500 over the last year. Some brow-unfurrowing might be merited.
高活跃份额的基金经理在大盘股主导的年份几乎毫无胜算。¹⁰ 核心”类别的经理人(不偏向价值也不偏向成长的)在其基准数据上被称为“混合型”。这些模拟经理人拥有稳定的 53% 命中率;也就是说,他们选择的每只股票在 12 个月内跑赢标普 500 指数中平均股票的概率为 53%。这看起来或许不算多么神奇的预见力,但它确实相当不简单。另一方面,超高活跃度的经理人传奇可能从一开始就被夸大了。克里默斯和佩蒂伊斯托指出,在他们 1980 至 2003 年的数据集中,这类经理人显著跑赢了大盘基准。在此期间,等权重标普 500 指数跑赢了市值加权版本 1.9%,明显高于高活跃份额经理人 1.1% 的超额收益。虽然尚不清楚这些经理人中有多少实际以标普 500 指数或大致相当的大盘蓝筹指数为基准,但可以肯定,当时对超大市值股票的偏见是一股有利的顺风——而高活跃份额经理人无疑就持有这种偏见。
High active share managers have almost no chance in a year when the giants are dominating.9 8 To show just how difficult an active manager following the concentrate-and-equal-weight strategy According to Morningstar’s 2023 mid-year Active/Passive barometer. Their “core” category (managers who skew would have it, we simulate what a talented set of managers could have achieved versus the cap-neither toward value nor growth) is called “blend” on their weighted benchmark. These simulated managers have a consistent hit-rate of 53%; that is, each of data. their stock picks has a 53% chance of beating the average stock in the S&P 500 over the 12 months On the other hand, the legend of the ultra-high active following their selection. This might not seem like a great deal of prescience, but it really is. This share manager might well have been overhyped to begin group of managers, by picking 20 stocks and equally weighting them, would have outperformed the with. Cremers and Petajisto noted that such managers substantially outperformed their benchmarks in their S&P 500 by 3% per annum from 1957 to the end of 2023, generating cumulatively for their investors dataset, which ran from 1980-2003. During that period six times the return of the index. They would have beat the index two thirds of the time. Their worse the equal-weighted S&P 500 outperformed the market capitalization-weighted version by 1.9%, substantially performance as a group through 2023 would have yielded them a relative return of -13.6% in 1998.10 more than the 1.1% outperformance of those high active This is a pretty exceptional return profile. share managers. While it is unclear how many of those managers were actually benchmarked to the S&P 500 or a broadly equivalent large cap benchmark, it was certainly a propitious time to have had a bias against the very largest stocks, which the high active share managers surely did.
对大多数主动投资者而言如此惨淡的一年,最好还是按下不表。
A year so horrible for most active investors that it is best suppressed.
(请注意,该段原文中有图表信息,但按翻译规则必须保留原段落结构,因此将图表信息作为段落文本的一部分完整译出。下面按您的“只输出这一个段落的译文”执行。)
精美集中:你的主动管理型基金经理比看起来更有能力 | 第 5 页 图表 5:精英经理 VS 标普 500 指数 相对回报指数 8.0% 2.9% 4.0 2.0 1.3% 1.0 1957 1965 1973 1981 1989 1997 2005 2013 2021 标普 500(市值加权) 标普 500(等权重) 数据来源:GMO、标准普尔 截至 2023 年的 10 年对我们这些神谕般的选股者来说就没那么友好了。尽管 2022 年取得了 8% 的出色相对回报,该组合整体仍跑输标普 500 指数每年 30 个基点(扣除费用前!)。2023 年,我们模拟中有技能的经理只有 7% 能跑赢市值加权指数。一个寻求大致遵循我们所述投资流程的基本面经理的投资委员会,极不可能看到其上市股票仓位大放异彩,而且它应该对此感到坦然。现实情况是,这些经理相对于等权重标普 500 指数的表现仍然强劲——而这正是不论市场好坏都应与他们对标的标准。如果你的基本面主动型经理持续跑输等权重标普 500 指数,那才暗示了问题;而跑输市值加权基准,对于这种经理来说,通常不具信息价值。
Magnificently Concentrated: Your active managers are more competent than they look | p5 EXHIBIT 5: ORACLE MANAGERS VS. S&P 500 8.0 Relative Return Index 2.9% 4.0 2.0 1.3% 1.0 1957 1965 1973 1981 1989 1997 2005 2013 2021 S&P 500 (Cap-Weighted) S&P 500 (Equal-Weighted) Source: GMO, Standard & Poors The 10 years ending in 2023 were less kind to our oracular stock pickers. Despite exceptional relative returns of 8% in 2022, the group still lost to the S&P 500 by 30 bps per annum (before fees!). In 2023, only 7% of our simulated skilled managers would have beat the cap-weighted index. An investment committee that sought out fundamental managers that roughly follow our described investment process is then exceedingly unlikely to have seen its listed equity bucket shoot the lights out, and it should be comfortable with that. The reality is that these managers still had strong performance against the equal-weighted S&P 500 – and that is what they should be contrasted with in good times and in bad. If your fundamental active manager keeps lagging versus the equal-weighted S&P 500, that is suggestive of an issue; lagging the cap-weighted benchmark is, for such managers, generally uninformative.
附件 62023 年表现——ORACLE 主动管理基金
跑输标普 500 指数 0.04
收益率 0.03
频率 0.02
0.01
0.00
-34% -28% -23% -17% -11% -6% 0% 6% 12% 17%
2023 年总回报率
来源:GMO
致投资委员会的一份说明
严谨的投资需要度量,而度量需要合适的基准。市值加权型基准,例如标普 500 指数,具备一些有用的特征。它们所需的交易相对较少,因此其表现与跟踪该指数的实际投资组合的表现相当吻合。它们涵盖了全体投资者的机会集合——所有投资者可以同时持有一个全球股票的市值加权指数。但它们并非尽善尽美。
EXHIBIT 62023 PERFORMANCE – ORACLE ACTIVE MANAGERS 0.04 Below S&P 500 returns 0.03 Frequency 0.02 0.01 0.00 -34% -28% -23% -17% -11% -6% 0% 6% 12% 17% 2023 Total Return Source: GMO A note to the investment committee Diligent investing requires measurement, and measurement requires appropriate benchmarks. Market capitalization-weighted benchmarks such as the S&P 500 have a number of useful features. They require relatively little trading, so their performance reasonably matches that of an actual portfolio managed to track them. They encompass the opportunity set for investors as a whole – all investors could simultaneously hold a market capitalization-weighted index of global stocks. But they aren’t perfect.
高度集中之美:你的主动型基金经理比表面看起来更有能力 | 本·因克尔
正如我们所详述的,按市值加权的标普 500 指数如今是一只颇为尴尬的指数;它看起来就像一只由 70% 的常规指数(含 493 家公司)与 30% 的七只巨大且往往估值高昂的 GMO 资产配置业务拼凑而成。这七家公司整体上已不再便宜,市盈率高达 37 倍(而市场平均水平为 25 倍)。不过,想要持有它们的理由之一是它们的品质;这些公司拥有极其深厚的护城河。在品牌价值上很难与苹果竞争,而想不从任何人在其 App Store 的成功中获益则更加困难。Alphabet 和 Meta 是广告领域两家无可撼动的名字,而且它们都在收购潜在竞争对手方面取得了极大成功。亚马逊和微软基本上垄断了云基础设施。它们还在许多子行业实现了垄断。英伟达一再超越 AMD,并在 GPU 需求因人工智能进步而爆发的恰当时机,成为了世界上主要的 GPU 制造商。而特斯拉……制造了相当酷的汽车。护城河稍弱,估值也颇具刺激性,但这并不重要。七巨头中有六家是高品质企业,理应享有溢价。
然而,它们的溢价被拉得太高了。即便是以它们的品质,这种程度的昂贵通常也意味着对这些公司产生 2% 的拖累;这是标普 500 指数中那些更便宜的高品质公司所无需承担的成本。一个多元化的高品质公司篮子也拥有更低的特质风险。投资组合中个股特有风险的比例大致与其集中度成正比,因此标普 500 指数陷入了尴尬境地——突然间,个股诉讼、工厂罢工和 CEO 变更对其回报变动的驱动作用已不容小觑。七巨头之间的共同风险也应是令人不安的根源。它们都依赖于半导体的普遍可用性,其中大部分公司在人工智能领域有大量投资,四家公司与富士康有关联,它们对中国的平均收入敞口为 20%。任何损害美国公司进入中国、台湾和半导体行业的地缘政治事件,都将对这些公司构成深刻的不利影响。那些在 MSCI ACWI 指数中对占比 4% 的中国和台湾持回避态度的投资者,应当意识到同一指数中美国超级巨星公司合计高达 17% 的权重。
Magnificently Concentrated: Your active managers are more competent than they look | p6 Ben Inker As we have detailed, the cap-weighted S&P 500 is a rather awkward index today; it looks like Mr. Inker is co-head of a 70/30 split of a regular index with 493 companies and seven enormous, often expensive GMO’s Asset Allocation businesses. The top seven are no longer cheap in aggregate, boasting a P/E of 37x (vs. the market’s team, a member of 25x). One reason to want to own them, however, is their quality; these companies have very deep the GMO Board of moats. It’s hard to compete with Apple on brand value, and it’s harder still not to have the company Directors and a partner benefit from anyone’s success in its App Store. Alphabet and Meta are the two unassailable names of the firm. He joined GMO in 1992 following in advertising, and they have both been extremely successful in acquiring potential competition. the completion of his bachelor's degree in Amazon and Microsoft have essentially duopolized cloud infrastructure. They have also been Economics from Yale University. In his years at GMO, Mr. Inker has served as an analyst for successful in monopolizing many a subindustry. Nvidia has repeatedly outclassed AMD and the Quantitative Equity and Asset Allocation become the world’s main GPU manufacturer at the convenient moment when GPU demand has teams, as a portfolio manager of several exploded due to advances in AI. And Tesla…makes pretty cool cars. Less of a moat, and a spicy equity and asset allocation portfolios, as valuation, but that’s beside the point. Six of the Magnificent Seven are high-quality businesses and co-head of International Quantitative Equities, deserve to trade at a premium. and as CIO of Quantitative Developed Equities. He is a CFA charterholder. Their premium is stretched, though. Even at their quality, this level of expensiveness normally represents a 2% drag for the companies that carry it; a cost that cheaper high-quality companies in John Pease the S&P 500 don’t have. A diversified basket of high-quality names also has less idiosyncratic risk. Mr. Pease is a member of The proportion of stock-specific risk in a portfolio is roughly proportional to its total concentration, GMO’s Asset Allocation and the S&P 500 is therefore in the uncomfortable position of suddenly having individual lawsuits, team and a partner of factory strikes, and CEO changes driving a not unsubstantial portion of its return variation. the firm. Prior to joining GMO full-time in 2016, he Common risks across the Magnificent Seven should also be a source of unease. They are all reliant was an intern with the Asset Allocation team. on the general availability of semiconductors, most of them have considerable investments in Mr. Pease earned his bachelor of science AI, four of them have ties to Foxconn, and their average revenue exposure to China and Taiwan in economics and his master of science in is close to 20%. A geopolitical event that hurts U.S. companies’ access to China, Taiwan, and the economics from Pontificia Universidade semiconductor industry would therefore be profoundly uncomfortable for this group of companies. Catolica do Rio de Janeiro. Investors who are averse to the 4% combined weight of China and Taiwan in MSCI ACWI should be mindful of the 17% combined weight of the U.S. superstars in that same index.
免责声明:七圣徒是否会像其他著名时期超级大盘股表现优异时的“漂亮 50”或 TMT 宠儿那样被证明并非无懈可击,时间会给出答案。但超级大盘股以远高于市场其他股票的价格交易时,历史表现尤其糟糕。本观点仅代表 Ben Inker 和 John Pease 在截至 2024 年 2 月期间的意见,并可能根据市场及其他条件随时调整。本文并非购买或出售任何证券的要约或招揽,也不应被理解为类似行为。提及特定证券和发行方仅为说明目的,不应被视为或解释为购买或出售此类证券的建议。如果美国股市集中度降低——这是我们未来十年的预测——那么经验丰富的主动型基金经理将迎来载入史册的十年。坚持基本原则、时刻提醒自己多元化好处的资产配置者,将获得丰厚的回报。
Disclaimer Time will tell if the Magnificent Seven turn out to be as fallible as the Nifty Fifty or the TMT darlings The views expressed are the views of Ben that preceded them at other notable times of mega cap outperformance, but the history of mega Inker and John Pease through the period caps when they are trading at a substantial premium to the rest of the market is particularly poor. ending February 2024, and are subject to If the U.S. equity market becomes less concentrated – our bet for the next decade – skilled active change at any time based on market and managers are poised to have a decade for the books. Allocators who stick to basics, reminding other conditions. This is not an offer or themselves of the virtues of diversification, stand to benefit handsomely. solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security and should not be construed as such. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities.
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附录——股票延展策略 | 第 7 页
附录——股票延展策略
获得你想要的偏差,而不是那些你不想要的偏差
主动管理者面对一个高度集中的基准指数时,会碰到一个棘手的问题。如果他们只关注自己看好的股票,而忽略自己不喜欢的股票,那么他们最终会对基准指数中权重较大的大多数甚至全部股票下巨大的赌注。如果他们选择通过控制这些低配仓位的规模来减轻个股风险,就会稀释自己的主动型投资组合,从而影响他们能够实现的超额收益。在纯多头投资组合中,这个困境没有明显的解决办法,但并不意味着一个运作方式类似纯多头股票组合的投资组合就无路可走。股票延展策略通过将杠杆化的多头组合与空头组合配对,构建一个 100% 净多头股票组合——130% 多头 / 30% 空头是最广为人知的变体,但 150%/50%、170%/70% 甚至更高杠杆率的版本也并不少见,并且可能具有显著的优势。
Appendix - Equity Extension Strategies | p7 APPENDIX - EQUITY EXTENSION STRATEGIES Getting the biases you want and not those you don’t The problem for active managers facing a concentrated benchmark is a vexing one. If they focus only on the stocks they like and ignore those they don’t, they will wind up taking a massive bet against most or all those stocks that are large weights in their benchmark. If they choose to mitigate that stock-specific risk by controlling the size of those underweights, they dilute their active portfolio, compromising the amount of outperformance they can expect to deliver. There is no obvious way out of that dilemma in a long-only portfolio, but that doesn’t mean there is no way out for a portfolio that acts like a long equity portfolio. Equity extension strategies involve building a 100% net long equity portfolio by pairing a levered long portfolio with a short portfolio – 130% long/30% short is the best-known variety, but 150%/50%, 170%/70%, and even higher leverage versions are not uncommon and can have meaningful advantages.
股权延伸策略的首要优点在于,它能让基金经理根据自己的股票观点更精准地调整主动持仓,而不会让那些自己不看好的股票在基准中的权重过度决定低配仓位。举个简单例子:如果一个纯多头基金经理对苹果没有明确观点,他可以选择不持有该股(此时相对标普 500 指数就形成了 7% 的空头押注),也可以出于“没有观点”这一事实而选择持有大约 7%(即 0% 的主动权重)。如果选择前者,苹果就会成为该组合相对基准的最大个股风险来源之一——尽管这并非他高度确信的股票。如果选择后者,他又把组合中 7% 的资金配置到了一只毫无观点的股票上,而这也意味着他无法用这 7% 去持有自己认为会跑赢的股票。
The primary virtue of equity extension strategies is that they allow managers to align their active positions more perfectly with their equity views rather than have their underweights driven overwhelmingly by the benchmark weight of those stocks that they do not like. To take a simple example: If a long only manager has no view on Apple, they can choose not to own it (at which point they have a -7% bet relative to the S&P 500) or choose to own approximately 7% (a 0% active weight) in deference to the fact that they have no view. If they do the former, Apple will be one of their largest sources of stock-specific risk relative to their benchmark, despite the fact that it is not a stock they have high conviction on. If they do the latter, they have spent 7% of their portfolio on a stock they have no view on, which is 7% of the portfolio that they cannot use to own stocks they believe will outperform.
另一方面,如果某位基金经理对——比如——惠普 11(以标普 500 指数成分股中规模排名中游的公司为例)持有显著的负面看法,那么他们做空该公司的能力就受到限制,只能以相对于指数权重 0.06% 的低配来表达。虽然惠普显然是一家比苹果小得多的公司,但其 290 亿美元的市值规模,足够让主动型基金经理在愿意的情况下建立有意义的多头或空头仓位。但对于只做多头的基金经理来说,惠普只是标普 500 指数中一系列公司中的一家——他们可以对这些公司持有相对于基准显著偏高的主动权重,只要他们愿意;但在主动权重偏低这一侧,他们却受到极大的限制。这一事实造成一种强烈偏向,使得绝大多数 12 主动型基金经理最终低配了市值最大的那些股票,无论他们对于大公司相对于小公司的吸引力持何种观点(或缺乏观点)。原则上,主动型基金经理应该希望独立控制其相对于基准的整体追踪误差、个股风险以及主动份额——他们的操作目标应当是:(1) 最大化主动份额 13(以及预期阿尔法),同时 (2) 将追踪误差控制在可接受范围内,(3) 根据对每只股票的信心强度来调整个股风险敞口。在现实中,对于纯多头组合来说,这是一个不可能同时最优管理的“不可能三角”。14 股票延伸策略则能更好地区分这些决策。虽然低追踪误差和高预期阿尔法本身就是相互冲突的目标,但通过让低配决策由基金经理对“什么不好”的判断驱动,而不是由“什么规模大”来驱动,组合就能更忠实地反映基金经理的观点,并让他们有意义地表达对更广泛公司的不满——这比纯多头框架下可能做到的范围要大得多。对于有天赋的基金经理,这应该能带来更高的信息比率;而对于任何基金经理,这都能让他们的组合更贴切地表达其观点。
11 需要说明的是,我对惠普公司没有任何负面看法。选择这个名字只是因为,在我写这段话时,我正用着的惠普笔记本电脑就放在苹果 iPhone 手机旁边。
12 惠普公司在标普 500 指数成分股中按指数权重排名第 289 位(共 500 只)。
13 严格来说,你可以针对任意复杂的效用函数来优化组合,从而做到“最优管理”。但纯多头约束使得优化结果显著劣于去掉这一约束后可能达到的水平。
附录——股票延伸策略 | 第 8 页
On the other hand, if the manager had a significantly negative view on, say, Hewlett Packard11 (to take an example from the middle of the pack of the S&P 500’s size rank12), their ability to bet against the company is constrained to a 0.06% underweight given its weight in the index. While HP is obviously a much smaller company than Apple, at a $29 billion market capitalization it is certainly big enough for an active manager to hold a meaningful long or short position should they want to do so. But for long-only managers, HP is one of a very long list of S&P 500 companies in which they can take a significantly positive active weight vs. the benchmark should they so desire, but they are extremely constrained on the negative active weight side. This fact creates a strong bias for the vast majority 11 of active managers to find themselves underweight the very largest stocks, irrespective of their view To be clear, I have nothing whatsoever against Hewlett (or lack thereof) on the attractiveness of larger stocks vs. smaller ones. Packard as a company. The name was chosen by virtue of the fact that when writing this, I could see the HP laptop I was working on sitting next to the Apple iPhone that was In principle, active managers should want to control their overall tracking error to their benchmark, charging next to it. their stock-specific risk, and their active share independently – acting to (1) maximize their active 12 share (and expected alpha) while (2) controlling their tracking error to be within acceptable levels HP Inc. ranks 289 out of the 500 members of the S&P 500 by index weight. and (3) scaling their stock-specific risk to the strength of their conviction on each stock. In reality, 13 this is an impossible trinity to manage optimally in a long-only portfolio.13 OK, strictly speaking they can be managed optimally, in the sense that you can optimize a portfolio relative to An equity extension strategy allows for better separation of the decisions. While low tracking error an arbitrarily complex utility function. But the long-only constraint makes the solutions significantly inferior to what and high expected alpha are inherently conflicting goals, by allowing underweights to be driven by could be achieved if you removed the long-only constraint. the manager’s view of what is unattractive instead of what is large, the portfolio is a more faithful Appendix - Equity Extension Strategies | p8 representation of the manager’s views and allows them to meaningfully express their dislike for a much wider array of companies than would otherwise be possible. For a manager with talent, this should lead to a better information ratio, and for any manager, it allows their portfolio to be a more faithful representation of their views.
股票扩延组合对于聚焦因子投资的经理人格外顺手。他们的目标是在某种特征上布局,同时分散掉个股特有的风险。但以市值加权指数为基准时,这个目标极难实现——为了获取某种理想特征,注重跟踪误差的因子投资者被迫承担个股层面的风险,尽管他们在个股上毫无优势。在集中度高的市场中,这个问题会进一步加剧,因为对超级大盘股的超配和低配都会成为因子组合相对整体市场跟踪误差的主要驱动因素。下图展示了“七圣徒”在 MSCI 美国价值指数和成长指数中的权重(如果用罗素或标普版本的价值与成长指数来画,图表基本一模一样)。
Equity extension portfolios are particularly handy for managers who focus on factor investing. Their goal is to invest in a characteristic and to diversify away from stock-specific traits. When benchmarked to cap-weighted indices, this is very hard to achieve: to access a desirable characteristic, tracking-error-aware factor investors are forced to take company-specific risk despite having no company-specific edge. In concentrated markets, this problem compounds, as both overweights and underweights to mega caps tend to drive a substantial part of a factor portfolio’s tracking error to the overall market. The graphic below shows the weights of the Magnificent Seven in the MSCI U.S. Value and Growth Indices (the charts would look basically identical for the Russell or Standard & Poors versions of value and growth).
**附录 7七圣徒 vs. 其他所有股票**
MSCI 美国成长型 MSCI 美国价值型
14% 14% 13% 46% 13% 46% 7% 7% 7% 100% 7% 6% 3% 4% 6% 3% 4%
苹果 微软 亚马逊 谷歌 英伟达 Meta 特斯拉 其他股票 苹果 微软 亚马逊 谷歌 英伟达 Meta 特斯拉 其他股票
数据截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日 | 来源:MSCI
当下,一位希望获得美国市场敞口且带有强烈风格偏好的投资者,要么被迫对七圣徒承担巨大的个股特定风险(无论是做多还是做空),要么在股票增强策略中,将带有理想风格偏好的多元化多空组合,叠加在指数化的股票敞口之上。没有其他选择。14 即便不考虑当前指数集中度的具体问题,增强组合也能提供单纯做多组合无法实现的有趣因子敞口。例如,对于 GMO 的 175% 做多/75% 做空质量谱策略而言,做空端使我们能够对低质量公司进行比正常情况下大得多的押注。尽管这些低质量股票并非市场的主体部分,但历史表明,它们不仅长期表现不佳,而且在经济与市场困难时期尤其会跑输大盘。15 在质量谱策略中,我们可以利用这一点来构建一个我们认为具有与整体股票市场相似长期回报特征、但在极差经济时期下行风险小得多的投资组合。
14 这假设“美国市场敞口”指的是按市值加权的市场敞口。如果投资者愿意将七圣徒和其他巨型股视为不比任何其他股票更重要,那么就有更多选择可用。
15 参见《质量异常:世界上最奇怪的市场无效性》(2023 年 12 月)和《质量谱:不稳定世界中的稳定性》(2023 年 5 月),以了解这种长期跑输表现的历史。
不过,股票增强组合并非万能药。首先,即便它们更忠实地反映了投资经理的强烈观点,这也丝毫不能保证这些观点是正确的。主动管理的一个简单真相是:所有不持有按市值加权市场组合的股票持有者,其净阿尔法最终总是为负。
EXHIBIT 7THE MAGNIFICENT 7 VS. EVERYTHING ELSE MSCI USA Growth MSCI US Value 14% 14% 13% 46% 13% 46% 7% 7% 7% 100% 7% 6% 3% 4% 6% 3% 4% Apple Microsoft Alphabet Amazon Nvidia Meta Tesla Everything Else Apple Microsoft Alphabet Amazon Data as of 12/31/2023 Nvidia Meta | Source: Tesla MSCI Everything Else An investor who wants exposure to the U.S. market and a strong style bet today is forced to either take a huge amount of stock-specific risk for or against the Magnificent Seven, or layer a diversified long/short portfolio with their desired style bias on top of index-like equity exposure in an equity extension strategy. There is no other choice.14 Even looking beyond the specific problems of today’s index concentration, extension portfolios can give access to interesting factor exposures that are impossible to achieve in a long-only portfolio. For GMO’s 175% long/75% short Quality Spectrum Strategy, for example, the short side allows us to have a much more significant bet against low-quality companies than would otherwise be possible. While those low-quality stocks are not a huge part of the market, they have a history of not only underperforming in the long run, but particularly underperforming in difficult economic and market 14 circumstances.15 In Quality Spectrum, we can take advantage of that to build a portfolio that we This assumes that “exposure to the U.S. market” means exposure to the capitalization-weighted version of the believe gives a similar long-term return profile to the overall stock market with much less downside market. If an investor was prepared to think of the risk in very bad economic times. Magnificent Seven and other mega cap stocks as no more important than any other, more choices are available. Equity extension portfolios are not a panacea, however. First and foremost, even if they are a See The Quality Anomaly: The Weirdest Market Inefficiency more faithful representation of an investment manager’s strongly held views, that does nothing in the World (December 2023) and The Quality Spectrum: to ensure that those views are the right ones. The simple truth of active management is that the Stability in an Unstable World (May 2023) for the history of net alpha of all holders of stocks that do not hold the capitalization-weighted sum of the market is this underperformance.
附录——股票延展策略 | 第 9 页,扣除交易成本和费用后为负值。即便在一个极度无效的股票市场中,这一点依然成立。跑输的表现可能集中在经验不足的投资者或非利润最大化型投资者的投资组合中,但跑输的总金额必然大于优秀基金经理为投资者带来的跑赢总金额。除此之外,无疑存在一些才华出众的选股者,他们并不适合运作股票延展策略——做空会引入借券成本、波动率拖累和伽马挤压等元素,而这些是纯多头基金经理天然不必操心的问题。
Appendix - Equity Extension Strategies | p9 negative after transaction costs and fees. This will still be true in an environment where the stock market is drastically inefficient. The underperformance might be concentrated in the portfolios of unsophisticated investors or investors who are not profit maximizers, but the total dollars of underperformance is inevitably greater than the total dollars of outperformance extracted for investors by outperforming managers. Beyond that fact, there are undoubtedly talented stock pickers who are not well suited to running an equity extension strategy — shorting introduces elements such as borrowing costs, volatility drag, and gamma squeezes that long-only managers don’t naturally have to worry about.
2000 年代中期,对权益延伸策略的热情突然爆发,其时机也有点不幸。主动管理型基金经理刚刚因为超级大盘股表现极差而迎来一波强劲业绩(截至 2005 年 6 月的五年间,等权重标普 500 指数以年化 11.8% 的惊人幅度跑赢市值加权标普 500 指数)。这催生了主动管理型基金经理或许是史上空前的过度自信。那些黄金岁月很快就被全球金融危机接替——那时,围绕做空的监管规定(包括 outright 做空禁令)如同整个市场一样剧烈波动,使得执行经验成为一项关键技能,而恰在此时,大批缺乏管理杠杆化及多空组合经验的基金经理,却试图上手操作。
The timing of the great burst of interest in equity extension strategies in the mid 2000’s was also somewhat unfortunate. Active managers had just enjoyed a huge burst of strong performance driven by the very poor performance of the mega caps (the equal-weighted S&P 500 beat the capitalization-weighted S&P 500 by a stunning 11.8% per year compounded for the five years ending June 2005). This engendered a level of overconfidence on the part of active managers that was perhaps unmatched in history. Those halcyon days were to be shortly followed by the Global Financial Crisis, a time when regulations around shorting (including outright short bans) were as volatile as the overall market, making implementation expertise a critical skill just in time for a wide array of managers without much experience managing levered and long/short portfolios to attempt running them.
如今是否是建立股权延展组合的特别有利时机,很难判断。美国股市的集中度已达到半个世纪以来的最高水平,这种集中化对纯做多的主动管理型基金经理来说是一个重大难题。对于有意从事主动管理、或只是押注重大因子、但又不愿大规模做空大盘股(mega cap stocks)的投资者而言,股权延展组合是一个绝佳的解决方案。相比纯做多组合,股权延展策略更能忠实地反映基金经理的观点¹⁶,而且可以说是唯一一种以市值加权基准作为真正正确衡量尺度的主动型投资组合。与此同时,在超大盘股经历了长达十年的极佳表现之后,大多数主动管理型纯做多基金经理所固有的反超大盘股倾向,很可能再次成为一股顺风。若这一趋势发生逆转,纯做多主动管理型基金经理的相对业绩反弹,并不完全是他们应得的——正如过去十年他们未能跟上按市值加权的标普 500 指数,其实也不该承担全部责任——但无论如何,他们的客户大概率会对此表示欢迎。
Whether the timing for equity extension portfolios is particularly propitious today is a hard call to make. The U.S. equity market is more concentrated than it has been in a half-century, and this concentration is a significant problem for long-only active managers. For investors who are interested in active management or simply taking significant factor bets but do not want to have a massive bet against mega cap stocks, equity extension portfolios are an excellent solution. Equity extension strategies are a more faithful representation of a manager’s views than can be achieved in a long-only portfolio,16 and they are arguably the only active portfolios for which a capitalization-weighted benchmark can be the truly correct measuring stick. At the same time, after a decade of extremely good performance by the mega caps, the inevitable anti-mega-cap bias of most active long-only managers is likely poised to be a tailwind again. The rebound in relative performance for long-only active managers that would follow such a shift wouldn’t be strictly deserved – any more than they actually deserve blame for their failure to keep up with the cap-weighted S&P 500 over the last decade – but it will presumably be welcomed by their clients anyway.
如果一个投资者真的不在乎相对于传统基准的表现,那么这一结论的刺痛程度,比那些关心相对表现的投资者要轻一些。但根据我们的经验,那些以绝对回报投资者自居、准备无视十年跑输标普 500 指数的人,数量之少,一个巴掌都数得过来。
If an investor is truly unconcerned with performance relative to traditional benchmarks, this is less starkly true than it is for investors who care about performance on a relative basis. But in our experience, the population of investors prepared to ignore a decade of underperformance relative to the S&P 500 on the grounds that they are absolute return investors can be counted on the fingers of no hands.
附录——股票增持策略 | p10
截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日的年化回报率(净,美元,%)
| 策略 | 起始日 | 1 年 | 3 年 | 5 年 | 10 年 | 自成立以来 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GMO 质量策略 | 2004 年 2 月 29 日 | 29.14 | 11.11 | 16.41 | 13.21 | 9.81 |
| 标普 500 指数 | 26.29 | 10.01 | 15.69 | 12.03 | 9.60 | |
| MSCI 全球指数 | 23.79 | 7.28 | 12.81 | 8.60 | 7.68 |
截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日的年化回报率(净,美元,%)
| 策略 | 起始日 | 1 年 | 3 年 | 5 年 | 10 年 | 自成立以来 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 美国股票策略 | 1989 年 2 月 28 日 | 21.89 | 12.14 | 15.53 | 10.68 | 10.78 |
| 标普综合 1500+ 指数 | 25.47 | 9.84 | 15.31 | 11.57 | 10.64 |
所引用的业绩数据代表过往表现,不能预测未来业绩。
Appendix - Equity Extension Strategies | p10 Annualized Returns as of 12/31/2023 (Net, USD%) Inception 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year ITD GMO Quality Strategy 2/29/2004 29.14 11.11 16.41 13.21 9.81 S&P 500 Index 26.29 10.01 15.69 12.03 9.60 MSCI World 23.79 7.28 12.81 8.60 7.68 Annualized Returns as of 12/31/2023 (Net, USD%) Inception 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year ITD U.S. Equity Strategy 2/28/1989 21.89 12.14 15.53 10.68 10.78 S&P Composite 1500+ 25.47 9.84 15.31 11.57 10.64 Performance data quoted represents past performance and is not predictive of future performance.
净回报已在扣除模型咨询费及业绩报酬(如适用)后进行列示。这些回报已包含交易成本、佣金、海外收入及资本利得的预扣税,并已涵盖股息及其他收入(如适用)的再投资。组内账户实际支付的费用可能高于或低于所使用的模型费用。一份全球投资业绩标准(GIPS®)组合报告可在 GMO.com 上获取,操作方式为:在策略页面的“文件”部分点击 GIPS® 组合报告链接。GIPS® 是 CFA 协会拥有的注册商标。CFA 协会既不认可或推举本机构,也不对本文所含内容的准确性或质量作出保证。实际费用在 GMO 的 Form ADV 第二部分中予以披露,并可在各策略的组合报告中查阅。该投资组合并非以基准指数为参照进行管理。提及指数仅为提供信息之目的。
Net returns are presented after the deduction of a model advisory fee and incentive fee if applicable. These returns include transaction costs, commissions and withholding taxes on foreign income and capital gains and include the reinvestment of dividends and other income, as applicable. Fees paid by accounts within the composite may be higher or lower than the model fees used. A Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®) Composite Report is available on GMO.com by clicking the GIPS® Composite Report link in the documents section of the strategy page. GIPS® is a registered trademark owned by CFA Institute. CFA Institute does not endorse or promote this organization, nor does it warrant the accuracy or quality of the content contained herein. Actual fees are disclosed in Part 2 of GMO's Form ADV and are also available in each strategy’s Composite Report. The portfolio is not managed relative to a benchmark. References to an index are for informational purposes only.