股票与债券十年回报

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博格回报来源模型——1915—2014 年股票债券 10 年期估算参数/模型输入实际输入实际总计期初回报率期末投资回报投机回报总收益期初收益长期 12 月 31 日期初收益增长率期初市盈率年化总回报标普 500 指数美国国债（10 年期） 1915 3.5% 4.0% 14.2 0.7% 8.1% 4.5% 3.5% 3.2% 1916 4.1 5.4 12.9 1.7 11.1 5.3 3.7 3.6 1917 6.7 6.8 10.0 4.4 17.9 6.7 3.9 3.9 1918 4.4 7.4 15.6 -0.1 11.7 5.0 3.9 4.0 1919 4.3 7.5 13.6 1.3 13.1 5.2 3.8 3.7 1920 5.2 7.5 12.4 2.2 14.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 1921 5.2 7.3 15.4 0.0 12.5 4.8 3.9 5.0 1922 5.1 7.0 13.4 1.5 13.6 6.9 4.0 5.5 1923 6.0 6.5 12.8 2.0 14.4 8.0 4.1 5.6 1924 5.7 5.7 14.1 0.9 12.3 11.2 4.1 5.9 1925 4.5 4.8 10.8 3.6 12.9 10.7 4.2 5.9 1926 5.7 4.1 6.4 8.9 18.7 11.0 4.1 6.0 1927 10.1 3.7 5.3 10.7 24.6 16.2 4.4 6.0 1928 7.2 3.7 8.0 6.0 16.9 18.5 4.8 5.5 1929 5.9 3.6 9.6 3.9 13.4 15.4 5.5 6.2 1930 7.5 3.3 8.5 4.9 15.7 13.9 6.1 6.3 1931 6.3 2.8 25.2 -5.9 3.1 6.4 6.0 4.6 1932 5.8 2.3 12.7 0.8 8.9 2.7 5.1 5.1 1933 6.2 2.4 8.7 4.5 13.1 6.7 5.1 4.5 1934 5.4 2.8 10.9 1.9 10.1 4.1 5.0 4.7 1935 4.8 3.1 10.0 2.5 10.4 5.9 4.9 4.7 1936 5.1 2.6 10.9 1.4 9.1 7.8 3.6 4.5 1937 4.4 1.7 15.7 -2.4 3.8 0.0 3.4 4.2 1938 3.7 1.2 16.8 -3.0 1.9 -0.9 4.0 4.7 1939 4.5 1.2 13.3 -0.6 5.1 -0.1 3.6 4.6 1940 6.3 1.5 16.0 -2.4 5.5 1.8 2.9 4.2 1941 9.7 2.1 13.8 -0.9 10.9 6.4 4.1 4.5 1942 7.3 2.5 16.6 -2.7 7.1 9.3 3.0 3.8 1943 4.4 1.7 22.7 -5.5 0.6 7.2 3.3 3.9 1944 4.9 0.5 18.9 -3.6 1.8 9.3 2.5 3.2 1945 3.6 -0.4 17.2 -2.7 0.5 8.4 1.6 2.8 1946 4.2 -0.8 16.7 -2.3 1.1 4.4 1.3 2.5 1947 7.3 -0.7 9.8 3.2 9.7 9.6 1.1 2.5 1948 4.0 -1.2 19.8 -3.8 -1.0 7.3 1.5 2.0 1949 5.0 -2.3 13.7 -0.2 2.5 9.2 1.0 1.8 1950 6.4 -2.9 10.0 2.9 6.4 13.4 0.6 1.6 1951 8.1 -3.0 7.6 5.8 10.9 17.3 0.8 1.6 1952 6.2 -2.4 9.2 3.5 7.3 17.1 0.7 1.6 1953 5.3 -0.8 12.2 0.6 5.1 14.3 1.5 1.6 1954 4.9 0.6 14.1 -0.8 4.6 17.1 1.4 1.7 博格回报来源模型——1915—2014 年股票债券 10 年期估算参数/模型输入实际输入实际总计期初回报率期末投资回报投机回报总收益期初收益长期 12 月 31 日期初收益增长率期初市盈率年化总回报标普 500 指数美国国债（10 年期） 1955 3.8 1.3 18.1 -3.2 1.9 16.7 1.0 1.4 1956 4.7 1.7 14.3 -0.6 5.8 18.4 1.1 1.3 1957 5.6 2.0 9.3 3.8 11.4 16.4 1.3 1.9 1958 6.1 3.2 6.6 7.5 16.8 20.1 1.5 1.6 1959 6.9 5.1 7.1 6.6 18.6 19.4 1.2 1.3 1960 7.4 6.3 7.0 6.8 20.6 16.2 1.6 2.4 1961 6.0 6.9 9.6 3.3 16.2 16.4 2.2 2.5 1962 5.4 7.1 10.9 1.9 14.4 13.4 2.4 2.9 1963 5.8 7.0 9.9 2.8 15.6 15.9 2.2 2.8 1964 4.4 7.4 12.6 0.4 12.2 12.8 1.7 2.9 1965 3.6 8.3 12.5 0.5 12.4 11.1 2.8 3.1 1966 3.7 9.7 13.6 -0.3 13.2 9.2 3.6 3.6 1967 4.4 10.5 12.0 1.0 16.0 12.8 2.8 2.9 1968 3.3 10.2 18.5 -3.3 10.1 10.0 3.8 3.5 1969 3.1 9.3 17.4 -2.7 9.7 7.8 5.0 3.5 1970 3.4 8.6 17.4 -2.7 9.4 8.2 3.3 3.9 1971 2.8 7.8 22.5 -5.0 5.6 7.0 3.8 4.6 1972 3.4 7.3 17.1 -2.3 8.4 9.9 3.9 4.6 1973 3.1 6.8 18.5 -3.1 6.8 6.0 4.1 4.9 1974 3.0 6.3 18.5 -3.2 6.1 1.2 4.2 5.1 1975 3.0 5.4 17.7 -2.7 5.7 3.3 4.7 5.7 1976 3.5 4.4 14.7 -0.9 7.0 6.6 4.6 6.5 1977 3.1 3.9 17.9 -2.7 4.2 3.6 5.7 6.6 1978 2.9 4.0 18.5 -3.0 3.9 3.2 6.2 6.5 1979 3.5 4.3 15.8 -1.4 6.3 5.9 7.9 7.0 1980 3.5 4.5 17.6 -2.4 5.7 8.5 6.5 5.7 1981 3.1 4.9 17.4 -2.1 6.0 6.5 5.9 5.8 1982 2.7 5.1 18.3 -2.3 5.5 6.7 6.4 8.0 1983 3.6 5.3 11.6 2.3 11.2 10.7 6.9 8.3 1984 5.4 5.6 7.5 6.7 17.6 14.8 7.4 9.1 1985 4.1 5.7 11.1 2.5 12.3 14.3 7.8 10.3 1986 3.9 5.8 10.6 2.9 12.5 13.8 6.8 10.5 1987 5.0 6.0 8.6 5.0 15.9 15.3 7.8 10.7 1988 5.3 6.1 7.8 6.0 17.4 16.3 9.2 11.0 1989 5.2 6.4 7.3 6.8 18.4 17.6 10.3 11.9 1990 4.6 6.9 9.0 4.5 16.1 13.9 12.4 12.5 1991 5.4 7.5 8.1 5.7 18.5 17.6 14.0 13.1 1992 4.9 7.8 11.0 2.4 15.1 16.2 10.4 11.0 1993 4.3 7.7 11.7 1.8 13.9 14.9 11.8 11.4 1994 4.6 7.6 9.9 3.6 15.8 14.4 11.6 9.4 博格回报来源模型——1915—2014 年股票债券 10 年期估算参数/模型输入实际输入实际总计期初回报率期末投资回报投机回报总收益期初收益长期 12 月 31 日期初收益增长率期初市盈率年化总回报标普 500 指数美国国债（10 年期） 1995 3.8 7.8 14.2 -0.1 11.5 14.9 9.0 9.1 1996 3.3 7.8 17.2 -1.9 9.1 15.3 7.2 7.8 1997 3.7 7.5 13.8 0.4 11.5 18.1 8.8 8.3 1998 3.5 7.3 11.6 2.0 12.9 19.2 9.1 8.7 1999 3.2 7.0 15.2 -0.8 9.4 18.2 7.9 7.2 2000 3.7 6.4 15.4 -0.9 9.1 17.5 8.1 7.5 2001 3.1 5.5 24.3 -5.4 3.3 12.9 6.7 6.7 2002 2.8 4.8 22.8 -4.6 3.0 9.3 6.7 7.3 2003 2.7 4.7 21.3 -3.9 3.5 11.1 5.8 6.4 2004 2.9 4.5 14.9 -0.4 7.0 12.1 7.8 7.2 2005 2.2 4.6 18.1 -2.4 4.5 9.1 5.6 5.7 2006 2.0 5.0 19.2 -2.9 4.2 8.4 6.4 5.8 2007 1.6 5.7 24.2 -5.0 2.3 5.9 5.8 6.0 2008 1.4 5.7 31.6 -7.3 -0.2 -1.4 4.7 6.2 2009 1.2 5.7 29.7 -6.4 0.4 -0.9 6.5 6.2 2010 1.2 6.2 26.6 -5.1 2.3 1.4 5.1 5.6 2011 1.4 6.6 46.4 -9.9 -2.0 2.9 5.1 5.8 2012 1.8 6.9 32.6 -6.3 2.3 7.1 3.8 4.8 2013 1.6 7.0 22.2 -2.4 6.1 7.4 4.3 4.4 2014 1.6 7.3 20.5 -1.5 7.5 7.7 4.2 4.5 1915—2014 4.5 4.7 14.9 0.2 9.4 10.1 4.8 5.4 1951—2014 3.8 5.7 15.8 -0.2 9.3 11.5 5.5 5.9

Bogle Sources of Return Model - 1915-2014 STOCKS BONDS 10-Year ESTIMATED PARAMETERS / MODEL INPUTS ACTUAL INPUT ACTUAL Total Period Initial Return on Ending Investment Return Speculative Return Total Yield on Inter-Term December Initial Earnings Initial P/E Annual Total Return on 10-Year U.S. Gov't 31 Yield Growth Ratio Return Return S&P 500 Treasury Bonds 1915 3.5% 4.0% 14.2 0.7% 8.1% 4.5% 3.5% 3.2% 1916 4.1 5.4 12.9 1.7 11.1 5.3 3.7 3.6 1917 6.7 6.8 10.0 4.4 17.9 6.7 3.9 3.9 1918 4.4 7.4 15.6 -0.1 11.7 5.0 3.9 4.0 1919 4.3 7.5 13.6 1.3 13.1 5.2 3.8 3.7 1920 5.2 7.5 12.4 2.2 14.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 1921 5.2 7.3 15.4 0.0 12.5 4.8 3.9 5.0 1922 5.1 7.0 13.4 1.5 13.6 6.9 4.0 5.5 1923 6.0 6.5 12.8 2.0 14.4 8.0 4.1 5.6 1924 5.7 5.7 14.1 0.9 12.3 11.2 4.1 5.9 1925 4.5 4.8 10.8 3.6 12.9 10.7 4.2 5.9 1926 5.7 4.1 6.4 8.9 18.7 11.0 4.1 6.0 1927 10.1 3.7 5.3 10.7 24.6 16.2 4.4 6.0 1928 7.2 3.7 8.0 6.0 16.9 18.5 4.8 5.5 1929 5.9 3.6 9.6 3.9 13.4 15.4 5.5 6.2 1930 7.5 3.3 8.5 4.9 15.7 13.9 6.1 6.3 1931 6.3 2.8 25.2 -5.9 3.1 6.4 6.0 4.6 1932 5.8 2.3 12.7 0.8 8.9 2.7 5.1 5.1 1933 6.2 2.4 8.7 4.5 13.1 6.7 5.1 4.5 1934 5.4 2.8 10.9 1.9 10.1 4.1 5.0 4.7 1935 4.8 3.1 10.0 2.5 10.4 5.9 4.9 4.7 1936 5.1 2.6 10.9 1.4 9.1 7.8 3.6 4.5 1937 4.4 1.7 15.7 -2.4 3.8 0.0 3.4 4.2 1938 3.7 1.2 16.8 -3.0 1.9 -0.9 4.0 4.7 1939 4.5 1.2 13.3 -0.6 5.1 -0.1 3.6 4.6 1940 6.3 1.5 16.0 -2.4 5.5 1.8 2.9 4.2 1941 9.7 2.1 13.8 -0.9 10.9 6.4 4.1 4.5 1942 7.3 2.5 16.6 -2.7 7.1 9.3 3.0 3.8 1943 4.4 1.7 22.7 -5.5 0.6 7.2 3.3 3.9 1944 4.9 0.5 18.9 -3.6 1.8 9.3 2.5 3.2 1945 3.6 -0.4 17.2 -2.7 0.5 8.4 1.6 2.8 1946 4.2 -0.8 16.7 -2.3 1.1 4.4 1.3 2.5 1947 7.3 -0.7 9.8 3.2 9.7 9.6 1.1 2.5 1948 4.0 -1.2 19.8 -3.8 -1.0 7.3 1.5 2.0 1949 5.0 -2.3 13.7 -0.2 2.5 9.2 1.0 1.8 1950 6.4 -2.9 10.0 2.9 6.4 13.4 0.6 1.6 1951 8.1 -3.0 7.6 5.8 10.9 17.3 0.8 1.6 1952 6.2 -2.4 9.2 3.5 7.3 17.1 0.7 1.6 1953 5.3 -0.8 12.2 0.6 5.1 14.3 1.5 1.6 1954 4.9 0.6 14.1 -0.8 4.6 17.1 1.4 1.7 Bogle Sources of Return Model - 1915-2014 STOCKS BONDS 10-Year ESTIMATED PARAMETERS / MODEL INPUTS ACTUAL INPUT ACTUAL Total Period Initial Return on Ending Investment Return Speculative Return Total Yield on Inter-Term December Initial Earnings Initial P/E Annual Total Return on 10-Year U.S. Gov't 31 Yield Growth Ratio Return Return S&P 500 Treasury Bonds 1955 3.8 1.3 18.1 -3.2 1.9 16.7 1.0 1.4 1956 4.7 1.7 14.3 -0.6 5.8 18.4 1.1 1.3 1957 5.6 2.0 9.3 3.8 11.4 16.4 1.3 1.9 1958 6.1 3.2 6.6 7.5 16.8 20.1 1.5 1.6 1959 6.9 5.1 7.1 6.6 18.6 19.4 1.2 1.3 1960 7.4 6.3 7.0 6.8 20.6 16.2 1.6 2.4 1961 6.0 6.9 9.6 3.3 16.2 16.4 2.2 2.5 1962 5.4 7.1 10.9 1.9 14.4 13.4 2.4 2.9 1963 5.8 7.0 9.9 2.8 15.6 15.9 2.2 2.8 1964 4.4 7.4 12.6 0.4 12.2 12.8 1.7 2.9 1965 3.6 8.3 12.5 0.5 12.4 11.1 2.8 3.1 1966 3.7 9.7 13.6 -0.3 13.2 9.2 3.6 3.6 1967 4.4 10.5 12.0 1.0 16.0 12.8 2.8 2.9 1968 3.3 10.2 18.5 -3.3 10.1 10.0 3.8 3.5 1969 3.1 9.3 17.4 -2.7 9.7 7.8 5.0 3.5 1970 3.4 8.6 17.4 -2.7 9.4 8.2 3.3 3.9 1971 2.8 7.8 22.5 -5.0 5.6 7.0 3.8 4.6 1972 3.4 7.3 17.1 -2.3 8.4 9.9 3.9 4.6 1973 3.1 6.8 18.5 -3.1 6.8 6.0 4.1 4.9 1974 3.0 6.3 18.5 -3.2 6.1 1.2 4.2 5.1 1975 3.0 5.4 17.7 -2.7 5.7 3.3 4.7 5.7 1976 3.5 4.4 14.7 -0.9 7.0 6.6 4.6 6.5 1977 3.1 3.9 17.9 -2.7 4.2 3.6 5.7 6.6 1978 2.9 4.0 18.5 -3.0 3.9 3.2 6.2 6.5 1979 3.5 4.3 15.8 -1.4 6.3 5.9 7.9 7.0 1980 3.5 4.5 17.6 -2.4 5.7 8.5 6.5 5.7 1981 3.1 4.9 17.4 -2.1 6.0 6.5 5.9 5.8 1982 2.7 5.1 18.3 -2.3 5.5 6.7 6.4 8.0 1983 3.6 5.3 11.6 2.3 11.2 10.7 6.9 8.3 1984 5.4 5.6 7.5 6.7 17.6 14.8 7.4 9.1 1985 4.1 5.7 11.1 2.5 12.3 14.3 7.8 10.3 1986 3.9 5.8 10.6 2.9 12.5 13.8 6.8 10.5 1987 5.0 6.0 8.6 5.0 15.9 15.3 7.8 10.7 1988 5.3 6.1 7.8 6.0 17.4 16.3 9.2 11.0 1989 5.2 6.4 7.3 6.8 18.4 17.6 10.3 11.9 1990 4.6 6.9 9.0 4.5 16.1 13.9 12.4 12.5 1991 5.4 7.5 8.1 5.7 18.5 17.6 14.0 13.1 1992 4.9 7.8 11.0 2.4 15.1 16.2 10.4 11.0 1993 4.3 7.7 11.7 1.8 13.9 14.9 11.8 11.4 1994 4.6 7.6 9.9 3.6 15.8 14.4 11.6 9.4 Bogle Sources of Return Model - 1915-2014 STOCKS BONDS 10-Year ESTIMATED PARAMETERS / MODEL INPUTS ACTUAL INPUT ACTUAL Total Period Initial Return on Ending Investment Return Speculative Return Total Yield on Inter-Term December Initial Earnings Initial P/E Annual Total Return on 10-Year U.S. Gov't 31 Yield Growth Ratio Return Return S&P 500 Treasury Bonds 1995 3.8 7.8 14.2 -0.1 11.5 14.9 9.0 9.1 1996 3.3 7.8 17.2 -1.9 9.1 15.3 7.2 7.8 1997 3.7 7.5 13.8 0.4 11.5 18.1 8.8 8.3 1998 3.5 7.3 11.6 2.0 12.9 19.2 9.1 8.7 1999 3.2 7.0 15.2 -0.8 9.4 18.2 7.9 7.2 2000 3.7 6.4 15.4 -0.9 9.1 17.5 8.1 7.5 2001 3.1 5.5 24.3 -5.4 3.3 12.9 6.7 6.7 2002 2.8 4.8 22.8 -4.6 3.0 9.3 6.7 7.3 2003 2.7 4.7 21.3 -3.9 3.5 11.1 5.8 6.4 2004 2.9 4.5 14.9 -0.4 7.0 12.1 7.8 7.2 2005 2.2 4.6 18.1 -2.4 4.5 9.1 5.6 5.7 2006 2.0 5.0 19.2 -2.9 4.2 8.4 6.4 5.8 2007 1.6 5.7 24.2 -5.0 2.3 5.9 5.8 6.0 2008 1.4 5.7 31.6 -7.3 -0.2 -1.4 4.7 6.2 2009 1.2 5.7 29.7 -6.4 0.4 -0.9 6.5 6.2 2010 1.2 6.2 26.6 -5.1 2.3 1.4 5.1 5.6 2011 1.4 6.6 46.4 -9.9 -2.0 2.9 5.1 5.8 2012 1.8 6.9 32.6 -6.3 2.3 7.1 3.8 4.8 2013 1.6 7.0 22.2 -2.4 6.1 7.4 4.3 4.4 2014 1.6 7.3 20.5 -1.5 7.5 7.7 4.2 4.5 1915-2014 4.5 4.7 14.9 0.2 9.4 10.1 4.8 5.4 1951-2014 3.8 5.7 15.8 -0.2 9.3 11.5 5.5 5.9