全方位看待股票回购:无论你身处何位,评估回购
Perspectives
Perspectives
2012 年 6 月,美盛资本管理从各个角度审视股票回购
June 2012 Legg Mason Capital Management Share Repurchase from All Angles
过往业绩不代表未来表现。所有投资均涉及风险,包括可能损失本金。
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal.
本材料仅供美国国内分发,不得向美国境外公众传播。请参阅末页的披露信息。
This material is not for public distribution outside the United States of America. Please refer to the disclosure information on the final page.
在美国——投资产品:不受联邦存款保险公司保险 • 无银行担保 • 可能损失本金
In the united states – iNVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT FDIC INSURED • NO BANK GUARANTEE • MAY LOSE VALUE
Batterymarch | Brandywine Global | ClearBridge Advisors | Legg Mason Capital Management | Legg Mason Global Asset Allocation | Legg Mason Global Equities Group | Permal | Royce & Associates | Western Asset Management
Batterymarch I Brandywine Global I ClearBridge Advisors I Legg Mason Capital Management Legg Mason Global Asset Allocation I Legg Mason Global Equities Group I Permal Royce & Associates I Western Asset Management
June 11, 2012
June 11, 2012
从各个角度审视股票回购—无论你身处何处,评估回购行为
Share Repurchase from All Angles Assessing Buybacks, No Matter Where You Sit
Executives
Executives
潜在股东 现有股东 回购 现有股东
Prospective Share Current Shareholders Buybacks Shareholders
Media
Media
管理层团队的首要职责,是以高于资本机会成本的回报率,配置财务资本、实物资本和人力资本。
• The prime responsibility of a management team is to invest financial, physical, and human capital at a rate in excess of the opportunity cost of capital.
• 高管们应始终致力于将资本配置到回报最高的机会上。
• Executives should always seek to allocate capital to the opportunities with the highest returns.
• 回购可能比投资自身业务更具吸引力。
• Buybacks can be more attractive than investing in the business.
如果你持有股票的那家公司正在回购股份,你必须认识到,不作为本身就是一种作为。
• If the company of a stock that you own is buying back shares, you must recognize that doing nothing is doing something.
• 媒体必须停止散布那种错误说法——投资者认为回购是好消息,是因为它提高了每股收益。
• The media must stop with the canard that investors deem buybacks to be good because they increase earnings per share (EPS).
公司的目标是实现长期价值最大化。因此,管理团队的首要职责,是以高于资本机会成本的回报率,来配置财务、实物和人力资本。落实到运营层面,这意味着要识别并执行能够带来超额回报的策略。卓越的管理者会评估各种可选方案的吸引力,将资本部署到价值最高的地方。这不仅涵盖资本支出、营运资本和收购等投资行为,也包括股票回购。在某些情况下,回购股份为存续股东创造的价值,超过了对企业进行再投资。精明的资本配置者都明白这一点。
The purpose of a company is to maximize long-term value. As such, the prime responsibility of a management team is to invest financial, physical, and human capital at a rate in excess of the opportunity cost of capital. Operationally, this means identifying and executing strategies that deliver excess returns. Outstanding executives assess the attractiveness of various alternatives and deploy capital to where its value is highest. This not only captures investments including capital expenditures, working capital, and acquisitions, but also share buybacks. There are cases where buying back shares provides more value to continuing shareholders than investing in the business does. Astute capital allocators understand this.
表 1 展示了过去 25 年里,美国公司在资本支出、并购、回购和股息这四个方面的资金分配情况。从 1985 年到 2011 年,资本支出约为并购支出的两倍。并购支出比股息和回购之和高出约 50%。因此,在这四个领域每支出 1 美元,大约有 0.55 美元用于资本支出,0.27 美元用于并购,0.18 美元用于股息和回购。
Exhibit 1 shows how companies in the U.S. have apportioned dollars over the past quarter century in capital expenditures, M&A, share buybacks, and dividends. From 1985 through 2011, spending on capital expenditures was roughly twice that of M&A. Spending on M&A was about 50% higher than dividends and buybacks combined. So for every dollar spent in these four areas, roughly $0.55 went to capital spending, $0.27 to M&A, and $0.18 to dividends and buybacks.
研究表明,资本支出可以带来超过资本成本的回报,而且从过去 25 年的总体情况来看,它们确实做到了这一点。如果把卖方和买方合在一起考虑,并购确实创造价值,但这些价值往往流向卖方,而买方获得的回报大致相当于资本成本。买方在为收购目标承诺的溢价比例越高,其业绩往往越差,研究还显示,市场对并购的初始反应是没有偏见的。
Research shows that capital expenditures can generate returns in excess of the cost of capital, and it 1 appears that they have done so in the aggregate over the past 25 years. M&A creates value if you consider the seller and buyer together, but the value tends to go to the seller while buyers earn about the cost of capital. 2 Buyers tend to do worse the larger the percentage premiums they pledge to acquire their targets, and research shows that the market’s initial reaction to M&A is not biased. 3
毫不意外,这张图显示,资本支出和股息的年度变化远比并购和回购温和得多。事实上,并购和回购遵循经济周期:股票市场上涨时活动增加,市场下跌时活动减少。这与如果管理层的主要目标是创造价值时你预期看到的模式完全相反。
Not surprisingly, the exhibit reveals that the year-to-year changes in capital expenditures and dividends are much more modest than those for M&A and share repurchases. Indeed, M&A and buybacks follow the economic cycle: Activity increases when the stock market is up and decreases when the market is down. This is the exact opposite pattern you’d expect if management’s primary goal is to build value.
高管们始终应当将资本配置到回报率最高的机会上。但并购和回购通常发生在景气时期,在更具挑战的时期则不会发生,这意味着高管们难以通过这类投资持续创造价值。尽管这种随经济周期波动的模式或许存在经济层面的合理解释——例如,在艰难时期获取资本可能更为困难——但这更可能是心理账户(mental accounting)在作祟:资本支出和股息在优先级上高于并购和回购,无论替代投资的前景回报如何。
Executives should always seek to allocate capital to the opportunities with the highest returns. But M&A and share buybacks generally happen when times are good and don’t happen when times are more challenging, meaning that executives struggle to consistently create value with these investments. While there may be an economic rationale for a pattern that follows the economic cycle—access to capital may be more challenging in tougher times, for example—it’s more likely a case of mental accounting: capital expenditures and dividends have priority to M&A and buybacks irrespective of the prospective returns from the alternative investments.
表 1:资金流向何处——1985–2011
Exhibit 1: Where the Money Has Gone – 1985-2011
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
| 年份 | 市值 | 股息 | 回购 | 并购 | 资本支出 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1985 | 2,321.5 | 61.7 | 23.1 | 139.2 | 505.7 |
| 1986 | 2,699.1 | 64.3 | 24.1 | 121.9 | 486.2 |
| 1987 | 2,417.1 | 68.1 | 23.7 | 118.1 | 490.9 |
| 1988 | 2,738.4 | 73.1 | 51.4 | 97.3 | 507.9 |
| 1989 | 3,419.9 | 81.5 | 27.8 | 86.0 | 550.4 |
| 1990 | 3,101.4 | 88.6 | 35.6 | 36.1 | 549.8 |
| 1991 | 4,041.1 | 90.1 | 24.2 | 32.4 | 508.6 |
| 1992 | 4,289.7 | 94.1 | 21.5 | 31.7 | 536.4 |
| 1993 | 4,657.8 | 92.5 | 26.7 | 82.5 | 590.8 |
| 1994 | 4,540.6 | 104.7 | 41.9 | 109.2 | 691.0 |
| 1995 | 6,057.2 | 107.3 | 73.1 | 215.3 | 754.8 |
| 1996 | 7,198.3 | 119.6 | 59.9 | 292.9 | 802.1 |
| 1997 | 9,298.2 | 134.1 | 77.6 | 456.8 | 918.3 |
| 1998 | 11,317.6 | 141.7 | 80.6 | 1,139.5 | 973.8 |
| 1999 | 13,812.7 | 157.3 | 70.7 | 1,112.1 | 1,060.9 |
| 2000 | 12,175.9 | 148.4 | 108.9 | 1,246.1 | 1,161.9 |
| 2001 | 10,707.7 | 156.2 | 106.1 | 592.4 | 1,033.2 |
| 2002 | 8,343.2 | 164.4 | 122.5 | 177.5 | 980.8 |
| 2003 | 10,799.6 | 178.1 | 118.5 | 233.5 | 1,005.0 |
| 2004 | 11,951.5 | 198.7 | 210.7 | 497.3 | 1,114.9 |
| 2005 | 12,497.2 | 231.0 | 361.0 | 533.2 | 1,233.0 |
| 2006 | 14,215.8 | 245.6 | 528.3 | 1,245.5 | 1,395.8 |
| 2007 | 14,753.6 | 270.1 | 761.8 | 1,223.1 | 1,453.4 |
| 2008 | 9,056.7 | 272.3 | 387.2 | 610.0 | 1,379.6 |
| 2009 | 11,385.1 | 216.6 | 149.5 | 328.8 | 963.2 |
| 2010 | 13,131.5 | 221.5 | 342.7 | 485.2 | 1,198.8 |
| 2011 | 13,019.3 | 256.4 | 489.4 | 983.6 | 1,309.6 |
Market Executed Mergers & Capital Date Capitalization Dividends Buybacks Acquisitions Expenditures 1985 2,321.5 61.7 23.1 139.2 505.7 1986 2,699.1 64.3 24.1 121.9 486.2 1987 2,417.1 68.1 23.7 118.1 490.9 1988 2,738.4 73.1 51.4 97.3 507.9 1989 3,419.9 81.5 27.8 86.0 550.4 1990 3,101.4 88.6 35.6 36.1 549.8 1991 4,041.1 90.1 24.2 32.4 508.6 1992 4,289.7 94.1 21.5 31.7 536.4 1993 4,657.8 92.5 26.7 82.5 590.8 1994 4,540.6 104.7 41.9 109.2 691.0 1995 6,057.2 107.3 73.1 215.3 754.8 1996 7,198.3 119.6 59.9 292.9 802.1 1997 9,298.2 134.1 77.6 456.8 918.3 1998 11,317.6 141.7 80.6 1,139.5 973.8 1999 13,812.7 157.3 70.7 1,112.1 1,060.9 2000 12,175.9 148.4 108.9 1,246.1 1,161.9 2001 10,707.7 156.2 106.1 592.4 1,033.2 2002 8,343.2 164.4 122.5 177.5 980.8 2003 10,799.6 178.1 118.5 233.5 1,005.0 2004 11,951.5 198.7 210.7 497.3 1,114.9 2005 12,497.2 231.0 361.0 533.2 1,233.0 2006 14,215.8 245.6 528.3 1,245.5 1,395.8 2007 14,753.6 270.1 761.8 1,223.1 1,453.4 2008 9,056.7 272.3 387.2 610.0 1,379.6 2009 11,385.1 216.6 149.5 328.8 963.2 2010 13,131.5 221.5 342.7 485.2 1,198.8 2011 13,019.3 256.4 489.4 983.6 1,309.6
注:单位为十亿美元。
Note: In $ billions.
数据来源:伯林尼联合公司和美联储 Z.1 表。历史业绩不代表未来结果。上表仅供示意,不反映实际投资情况。
Source: Birinyi Associates and FRB Z.1. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The table above is for illustrative purposes only and is not reflective of an actual investment.
理论上,在不考虑税收、现金到账时间完全相同且市场有效的前提下,股息和回购是等价的。但在实践中,两者截然不同。以税收问题为例:即便股息税率与资本利得税率相同(当前正是如此),回购仍然占优。原因在于,股东可以选择今天不卖出股票来递延纳税——你可以把这理解为拒绝眼下的“股息”,以换取未来可能更大的股息。
In theory, dividends and buybacks are equivalent assuming no taxes, identical timing of cash receipts, and an efficient market. 4 In practice, they are very different. Take, for example, the issue of taxes. Even when the tax rates for dividends and capital gains are the same, as they are now, there’s an advantage to buybacks. This is because a shareholder can choose to defer tax payments by not selling shares today— think of this as refusing a “dividend” today in exchange for a potentially larger dividend down the road.
将来再缴税总比今天就要缴要好。
Paying a tax bill in the future is better than having to pay one today.
股息与回购存在差异,还有一个更根本的原因,源于高管对它们的不同认知。高管将股息视同资本支出等投资决策。一旦董事会确立了股息政策,高管便倾向于逐年稳步提高派息,极其厌恶削减股息的想法。因此,股息的总体现金流波动幅度远小于股市整体波动,也小于回购资金的分配波动。
There’s a more fundamental reason that dividends and buybacks are different, and it’s the result of how executives think of them. Executives consider dividends on par with investment decisions such as capital spending. Once a board has instituted a dividend, executives like to increase the payment steadily over time and hate the idea of cutting it. As a result, the aggregate stream of dividends is less volatile than the stock market or the allocation to share repurchases.
高管们将回购视为花费剩余现金的一种替代方案。如果一家公司在支付完所有账单(包括股息),并完成所有其认为有价值的投资后还有余钱,高管们就会考虑回购。由于回购被视为剩余资金的处理方式,其波动性远高于股息。图表 2 展示了标普 500 指数成分公司的股息和股票回购情况,以及该指数的价格水平。回购的波动程度超过股息支付,并且与标普 500 指数的走势更为紧密相关。
Executives think of buybacks as an alternative for spending residual cash. If there’s money left over after a company has paid all of its bills (including dividends) and made all of the investments it deems worthwhile, executives will consider a buyback. Because they are viewed as a residual, buybacks are much more volatile than dividends. Exhibit 2 shows dividends and share buybacks for the companies in the S&P 500, as well as the price level for the index. Buybacks bounce around more than dividend 5 payments do and more closely track the S&P 500 Index.
图表 2:回购的波动远大于股息(滚动四个季度合计总额)
Exhibit 2: Buybacks Vary Much More Than Dividends (Rolling Four-Quarter Totals)
700 1600
700 1600
Dividends 1500 600
Dividends 1500 600
回购与股息(单位:十亿美元)
Buybacks and Dividends ($ billions)
Share Buybacks 1400 S&P 500 500 1300
Share Buybacks 1400 S&P 500 500 1300
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
S&P 500 Index 1200 400 1100 300 1000 200 900 800 100 700 0 600 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
S&P 500 Index 1200 400 1100 300 1000 200 900 800 100 700 0 600 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
数据来源:标准普尔。过往业绩不保证未来结果。上图仅供说明用途,不代表实际投资。请注意,投资者无法直接投资于指数。
Source: Standard & Poor’s. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The graph above is for illustrative purposes only and is not reflective of an actual investment. Please note that an investor cannot directly invest in an index.
另一个值得注意的现象是:2004 年,已执行的回购金额首次超过股息总额,此后一直保持更高水平(2009 年金融危机高峰期除外)。
Another noteworthy point is that the value of executed buybacks exceeded that of dividends in 2004 and have remained at a higher level ever since (with the exception of the height of the financial crisis in 2009).
市场预测者们经常把当前的股息收益率与较久远的历史水平做对比,然后指出收益率已今非昔比。
It is common for market prognosticators to compare today’s dividend yield to those of the more distant past and to point out that the yield isn’t what it used to be.
但直到 1982 年,美国国会才通过了 10b-18 规则,该规则为上市公司提供了一个安全港——即只要它们遵守特定规定,就可以免受被起诉的法律威胁。10b-18 规则使得回购在现代历史上首次具备了大规模操作的可行性。近期研究表明,没有证据显示公司向股东返还现金的倾向有所降低——只不过支付形式从股息转变为了回购。6
But it was only in 1982 that Congress enacted rule 10b-18, which provided companies with a safe harbor, or a legal shield from the threat of being sued if they followed certain rules. Rule 10b-18 made buybacks viable on a large scale for the first time in modern history. Recent research shows that there is no evidence that companies have a lower propensity to distribute cash to equity holders—it’s just that the form of payment has shifted from dividends to buybacks. 6
尽管如此,关于股息在实现股东总回报中的作用,仍然存在广泛的困惑。关键一点在于,股价上涨是唯一能让累积资本随时间增长的回报来源。资本积累来源于三个方面:股东投资了多少、投资了多长时间,以及股价上涨。只有当股东将所获股息的 100% 在一个免税账户中重新投资于该股票时,他才能获得股东总回报。实际上,无论是机构投资者还是个人投资者,只有极小比例的人会这样做。股价上涨才是长期资本积累的驱动力。
Still, there remains widespread confusion about the role of dividends in delivering total shareholder returns. The key point is that price appreciation is the only source of investment returns that increases accumulated capital over time. Capital accumulation comes from three sources: how much a shareholder invests, how long he invests, and price appreciation. A shareholder will earn the total shareholder return only if he reinvests 100 percent of his dividends back into the stock in a tax-free account. A very small percentage of investors, either institutional or individual, actually do so. Price appreciation is the driver of capital accumulation over time. 7
然而,有研究显示,收缩资产的企业事件——包括分拆、回购、提前偿债和首次分红——之后往往伴随着良好的股东回报。此外,分析表明,从历史数据看,较高的股息支付率与较高的盈利增长率之间存在关联——这与简单理论所说的恰恰相反。综合来看,这些研究大致表明,资本市场倾向于奖励那些不为了增长而追求资产增长的公司。
That said, there is research that shows that corporate events that contract assets, including spinoffs, buybacks, debt prepayments, and dividend initiations, are followed by good shareholder returns. Further, analysis suggests that historically, higher dividend payout ratios have been associated with higher earnings growth rates—contrary to what simple theory would say. Taken together, these studies broadly suggest that capital markets tend to reward companies that do not pursue asset growth for the sake of growth. 8
资本部署的问题在今天尤为值得关注,因为根据美联储的数据,非金融企业目前坐拥 1.7 万亿美元的流动资产。其中相当一部分是离岸现金,这个话题后面再谈。也就是说,企业手头有钱可以投资,却不太清楚该怎么投。全球经济的不确定性让高管们对大规模资本支出和并购交易望而却步。同样的不确定性也给股息带来了顾虑,因为公司不想签一份自己觉得将来可能兑现不了的隐性合约。股票回购看起来很有吸引力,但股市波动剧烈,标普 500 指数的十年年化复合回报率低得可怜,只有 4%。那些近些年曾在更高价位回购过自家公司股票的高管,如今也对回购心有余悸,生怕再次付价过高。
The issue of capital deployment is of particular relevance today because non-financial companies are sitting on $1.7 trillion in liquid assets, according to the Federal Reserve. 9 A good deal of that is cash that is offshore, a topic addressed later. So companies have the resources available to invest but don’t know quite what to do. Uncertainty about the global economy makes executives wary of sizeable capital expenditures and M&A deals. The same uncertainty creates concerns about dividends, because companies don’t want to enter into an implicit contract that they feel they may not be able to honor in the future. Share buybacks look attractive but stocks have been on a roller coaster and the ten-year compounded annual return for the S&P 500 has been an abysmal four percent. Executives who purchased their company’s stock at higher prices in recent years are also gun-shy about buying back stock today in fear that they will again pay too much.
这份报告从四个不同角度审视回购:公司、股东、潜在股东和媒体。自然,这些角度相互交织。若你属于其中某一群体,可直接跳至与你相关的部分,也可浏览其他部分以了解他们的观点。
This report looks at buybacks from four distinct points of view: companies, shareholders, prospective shareholders, and the media. Naturally, the issues are intertwined. If you are in one of these groups, you can go directly to the section that pertains to you. Or you can skim other sections to gain some appreciation for their points of view.
Company Management:
Company Management:
谈到股票回购,首先需要认清的一个概念是价值守恒。其基本逻辑是:无论公司回购的是被高估的股票、被低估的股票,还是发放股息,价值都是守恒的。一部分人可能以牺牲另一部分人的利益为代价而获益,但从总量上看,得失相抵,结果为零。关键在于每项决定会如何影响持续持股的股东和卖出股票的股东。
• One of the first concepts to acknowledge with a share buyback is value conservation. Here’s the basic idea: whether a company buys back overvalued stock, undervalued stock, or pays a dividend, value is conserved. One group may benefit at the expense of another, but in aggregate the outcome sums to zero. The key issue is how each decision affects ongoing and selling shareholders.
附件 3 说明了这一点。假设一家公司的唯一资产是 1000 美元现金,发行在外股票 100 股。每股价值 10 美元(1000 美元/100)。公司决定向股东返还 200 美元。在场景 A 中,股价为 20 美元,是价值的两倍。公司进行回购,以总计 200 美元的成本买回 10 股,剩余 90 股。在这种情况下,卖出股票的股东赚了 100 美元(20 美元价格 - 10 美元价值 × 10 股 = 100 美元),而留存股东损失了 100 美元(8.89 美元新价值 - 10 美元旧价值 × 90 股 = 100 美元)。
Exhibit 3 illustrates this point. Assume the sole asset of a company is $1,000 in cash, and that there are 100 shares outstanding. Value per share is $10 ($1,000/100). The company decides it wants to return $200 to shareholders. In scenario A, the stock price is at $20, twice the value. The company goes ahead and repurchases 10 shares for a total cost of $200, leaving 90 shares. In this case, the selling shareholders gained $100 ($20 price - $10 value x 10 shares = $100) and the ongoing shareholders have lost $100 ($8.89 new value - $10 old value x 90 shares = $100).
卖出股票的股东以持续持股的股东为代价获得了利益。
Selling shareholders have benefitted at the expense of ongoing shareholders.
表格 3:价值守恒原理的演示
Exhibit 3: Demonstration of the Value Conservation Principle
| 情形 A | 情形 B | 情形 C | |||
| 假设 | 假设 | 假设 | |||
| 假设条件 | 基准情形 | 以 20 美元回购 | 以 5 美元回购 | 假设条件 | 派发 2 美元股息 |
| 回购金额 | 200 美元 | 200 美元 | 股息金额 | 200 美元 | |
| 公司价值 | 1,000 美元 | 800 美元 | 800 美元 | 公司价值 | 800 美元 |
| 流通股数 | 100 股 | 100 股 | 100 股 | 流通股数 | 100 股 |
| 当前股价 | 10 美元 | 20 美元 | 5 美元 | 当前股价 | 10 美元 |
| 回购后股数 | 90 股 | 60 股 | |||
| 每股价值 | 10 美元 | 8.89 美元 | 13.33 美元 | 每股价值 | 8.00 美元 |
Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Assume Assume Assume Assumptions Base buyback @ $20 buyback @ $5 Assumptions dividend of $2 Buyback amount $200 $200 Dividend amount $200 Firm Value $ 1,000 $800 $800 Firm Value $800 Shares outstanding 100 100 100 Shares outstanding 100 Current price $10 $20 $5 Current price $10 Shares post buyback 90 60 Value/share $10 $8.89 $13.33 Value/share $8.00
Dividend/share $2.00
Dividend/share $2.00
| 出售方股东 | 10 | 40 |
|---|---|---|
| $20 | $5 | |
| 对出售方的价值 | $200 | $200 |
| 存续股东 | 90 | 60 |
| 存续股东价值 | $800 | $800 |
| $8.89 | $13.33 | |
| 股息 | $200 | $200 |
| $800 | $800 | |
| 总价值 | $1,000 | $1,000 |
| 总价值 | $1,000 | $1,000 |
| 每股对出售方的影响 | $10.00 | ($5.00) |
| 每股对存续股东的影响 | ($1.11) | $3.33 |
Selling shareholders 10 40 $20 $5 Value to sellers $200 $200 Ongoing shareholders 90 60 Ongoing shareholders $800 $8.89 $13.33 Dividends $200 $800 $800 Total value $1,000 $1,000 Total value $1,000 Per share +/- sellers $10.00 ($5.00) Per share +/- holders ($1.11) $3.33
来源:LMCM。上表仅供说明用途,不代表实际投资。
Source: LMCM. The table above is for illustrative purposes only and is not reflective of an actual investment.
在情景 B 中,股价为 5 美元,是价值的一半。公司现在回购 40 股,总成本为 200 美元,剩余 60 股。在这种情况下,卖出股东损失了 200 美元(5 美元价格 - 10 美元价值 × 40 股 = 200 美元),而持续股东获得了 200 美元(13.33 美元新价值 - 10 美元旧价值 × 60 股 = 200 美元)。持续股东以卖出股东的损失为代价获得了收益。
In scenario B, the stock price is at $5, one-half of the value. The company now repurchases 40 shares for a total cost of $200, leaving 60 shares. In this case, the selling shareholders lost $200 ($5 price - $10 value x 40 shares = $200) and the ongoing shareholders gained $200 ($13.33 new value - $10 old value x 60 shares = $200). Ongoing shareholders have benefitted at the expense of selling shareholders.
在情景 C 中,公司支付 200 美元股息。无论股价如何,股东每持有一股即可获得 2 美元(2 美元 × 100 股 = 200 美元)。
In scenario C, the company pays a dividend of $200. No matter what the price, shareholders get $2 for each share they hold ($2 x 100 shares = $200).
上述每一种情境中的价值保持,都揭示了一个基本要点:管理层应当以持续股东价值最大化为目标。管理层应专注于创造每股最高的长期价值,而不是把企业规模做大。创造价值才是目标。
The value conservation in each of these scenarios belies a fundamental point: management’s objective should be to maximize the long-term value for ongoing shareholders. Management should be preoccupied with generating the greatest long-term value per share. Building a larger entity should not be the goal. Creating value for the continuing shareholders should be.
情况 A 不应与这样的情形混为一谈:公司回购了股票,随后股价下跌,便认定当初的决策糟糕透顶。毕竟,即便是极其成功的资金管理人,也会买入表现不佳的股票。关键在于,根据管理层当时所掌握的信息,股票的交易价格是否对合理评估的内在价值存在足够大的折让。如果决策过程扎实可靠,对内在价值的判断也准确无误,那么后续的股价下跌并不能证明这是一项糟糕的决策。然而事实上,很少有高管能真正正确地理解回购这件事。
Scenario A should not be confused with buying back the stock, seeing it go down subsequently, and assuming that the decision was poor. After all, even highly successful money managers buy stocks that underperform. The key is whether, given the information the executives had at the time, the stock traded at a sufficient discount to a reasonable assessment of its intrinsic value. If the process is solid and the conclusion about intrinsic value sound, then a later decline in the stock price is not evidence of a bad decision. In reality, however, very few executives think about buybacks properly.
对于资本过剩且管理层认为股价被高估的公司,特别股息是一个合理的替代方案。股息对所有投资者一视同仁,允许投资者按自己的意愿重新配置这笔资金。那些认为股票被低估的股东,可以将股息重新投资回这只股票。
For companies that are overcapitalized and have a stock that management deems to be overvalued, a special dividend is a reasonable alternative. A dividend treats all investors the same and allows investors to reallocate the proceeds as they see fit. Those shareholders who think the shares are undervalued can reinvest their dividend proceeds back into the shares.
高管应当遵循股份回购的黄金法则:一家公司只有在股价低于其预期价值,且没有更好的投资机会时,才应回购自己的股票。这条法则的第一部分强化了一个观念,即高管应当为持续持股的股东最大化价值。第二部分则涉及优先排序,明确指出高管应当将回购的优劣与包括资本支出和并购在内的其他投资选项进行比较评估。
• Executives should follow the golden rule of share buybacks: A company should repurchase its shares only when its stock is trading below its expected value and when no better investment 10 opportunities are available. The first part of this rule reinforces the notion that executives should seek to maximize value for the ongoing shareholders. The second part of the rule addresses prioritization and makes clear that executives should assess the virtue of a buyback against alternative investments, including capital spending and M&A.
• 回购可能比投资业务本身更具吸引力。大多数高管不愿听到这一点,因为他们认为自己的首要职责是让业务增长。但增长的目标可能——而且常常确实——与为长期持股股东实现长期价值最大化这一正确目标相冲突。在大多数情况下,公司通过运营来创造价值——即投资那些收益率高于资本成本的业务。通过运营来积累价值仍应是公司的首要任务。但执行得当的回购,可以成为为长期持股股东创造价值的合理且重要的杠杆。
• Buybacks can be more attractive than investing in the business. Most executives don’t want to hear this because they think that their prime responsibility is to grow the business. But the objective of growth can, and often does, come into conflict with the proper objective of maximizing long-term value for ongoing shareholders. In most cases, companies achieve value creation through operations—investments in the business that earn above the cost of capital. And building value through operations should remain their top priority. But properly executed buybacks can provide a legitimate and significant lever to build value for ongoing shareholders.
• 回购有时比并购更具吸引力。大多数并购交易对收购方而言近乎价值中性,意味着它们只能获得接近资本成本的回报。原因很简单:优质资产通常会吸引多个买家,因此协同效应的大部分价值流向了卖方而非买方。回购为管理层提供了相对于并购的一个潜在优势。在并购中,公司必须准确预测目标企业作为持续经营实体的现金流,然后试图支付低于协同效应现值的控制权溢价。因此,一笔交易必须越过两道门槛:既要实现市场已有的预期,又要在协同效应与溢价之间取得正向差额。管理层评估自身业务的现金流,比评估收购目标的现金流更容易。此外,通过明智的回购,公司无需支付溢价——实际上,公司还能以折价收购股票。
• Buybacks can be more attractive than M&A. Most M&A deals are close to value neutral for the buyer, which means that they earn something close to the cost of capital. The reason is pretty simple: attractive assets typically lure multiple buyers, so most of the value of synergies goes to the sellers than to the buyers. Buybacks offer executives a potential advantage over M&A. In M&A, a company must properly forecast the cash flows of the target as an ongoing business and then attempt to pay a premium for control that is less than the present value of synergies. So a deal must clear two hurdles: deliver on the expectations already in the market and deliver on a positive spread between the synergies and the premium. It may be easier for an executive to assess the cash flows of his own business than the cash flows of an acquisition target. Further, with smart buybacks the company pays no premium—in fact, the company can acquire the shares at a discount.
• 回购股票背后有三种基本思想流派:
• There are three basic schools of thought behind buying back stock:
o 公允价值学派。这一学派认为,保持稳健而一贯的做法是最佳选择。
o Fair value school. This school believes that a steady and consistent approach is best.
在多年时间跨度里,公司回购的股票有时被低估,有时被高估,更多时候接近公允价值。他们秉持的态度是,最终一切都会平衡,公司大致以公允价值返还现金。由于回购为持续持股的股东提供了更多灵活性——他们可以选择持有并递延纳税——
Over the span of many years, the company will repurchase shares that are at times undervalued, at times overvalued, and often somewhere near the fair value. The attitude is that it all works out in the end, and the company returns cash at roughly fair value. Since buybacks offer ongoing shareholders more flexibility—they can hold and defer
这类主管认为,与股息相比,要么缴税,要么按比例出售部分股票来创造自制股息的做法更为优越。
taxes or sell a pro-rated amount and create homemade dividends—executives in this school deem them superior to a dividend.
o 内在价值学派。该学派认为,公司只应在股价被低估时回购股票。如果管理层对价值的判断正确,这种做法将以卖出股东为代价,回报继续持有的股东。要运用这种方法妥善执行回购,高管必须对其公司股票的价值有良好、扎实的判断。经验表明,很少高管能培养出这种判断力。
o Intrinsic value school. This school believes that a company should only buy back stock when the shares are undervalued. If management’s assessment of value is correct, this approach rewards ongoing shareholders at the expense of selling shareholders. To properly execute buybacks using this approach, executives must have a good, grounded sense of what their company’s stock is worth. Experience indicates that few executives cultivate this sense.
o 不纯动机学派。这一派的高管回购股票是为了实现可能与股东经济利益一致、也可能不一致的目标(并提高代理成本)。这些目标包括:回购股票以提升每股收益(EPS)、抵消期权或并购带来的 11 次稀释、或抬高净资产收益率。利用回购来操纵每股收益的做法尤为诱人。要明确一点:纯粹为了提升每股收益而回购股票,在经济上没有站得住脚的理由。
o Impure motives school. Executives in this school buy back shares to achieve goals that may or may not coincide with the economic interests of shareholders (and raise agency costs). These include buying back shares to boost earnings per share (EPS), to offset 11 dilution from options or M&A, or to lift the return on equity. The use of buybacks to manipulate EPS is particularly tempting. To be clear, there is no economically sensible rationale to buy back stock solely to increase EPS.
回购能否提升或降低每股收益,取决于市盈率(P/E)倍数,以及公司放弃的税后利息收入或为回购融资的新债务的税后成本。当市盈率的倒数,即盈利收益率 [1/(P/E) = E/P] 高于税后利率时,回购会增厚每股收益;当 E/P 低于税后利率时,回购则会稀释每股收益。管理层应将回购对每股收益的影响视为一个残余结果,而非行动的动机来源。
Whether a buyback increases or decreases EPS is a function of the price earnings (P/E) multiple and either the company’s foregone after-tax interest income or the after-tax cost of new debt to finance the buyback. When the inverse of the P/E, or earnings yield, [1/(P/E) = E/P] is greater than the after-tax interest rate, a buyback adds to EPS. When the E/P is lower than the after-tax rate, a buyback reduces EPS. Management should view the EPS impact of a buyback as a residual, not as a source of motivation.
o 假设管理层有能力区分股票是被低估还是高估,那么内在价值学派是最佳的。内在价值学派中高管的行为,为投资者提供了有用的信号,让他们了解这些高管认为股票何时便宜或昂贵。如果管理层能够清晰阐述其策略并始终如一地执行,那么公允价值学派是可以容忍的。纯动机不详学派存在重大风险,不幸的是,这正是大多数公司所信奉的思想流派。
o Assuming a process through which management can distinguish between an undervalued and overvalued stock, the intrinsic value school is best. The actions of executives in the intrinsic value school provide a useful signal to investors as to when those executives think the stock is cheap or dear. The fair value school is tolerable if 12 management articulates its strategy and executes it consistently. There is major risk in the impure motives school and, unfortunately, this is the school of thought to which most companies subscribe.
• 股东回报率——即长期持股股东可以预期的回报——等于股本成本除以股价与内在价值之比。举例来说,假设一只股票当前交易价格为 50 美元,管理层经过深思熟虑的分析后认为其价值为 75 美元,股本成本为 8%。通过回购预期可获得的回报率为 12% [8% / (50 美元/75 美元)]。更精细的计算方法会同时考虑股价相对于内在价值的折扣,以及这一价值缺口闭合所需的时间。但即便是这种简单的计算方式,也能为管理层提供一个合理的依据,用以比较回购与其他投资选项的回报率。
• The shareholder rate of return—the return that continuing shareholders can expect—equals the cost of equity divided by the ratio of stock price to intrinsic value. For example, say a stock is trading at $50, management’s thoughtful analysis suggests that it is worth $75, and the cost of equity is 8 percent. The expected return from the buyback is 12 percent [8%/($50/$75)]. A more sophisticated approach incorporates both the discount to intrinsic value and the time it takes for the value gap to close. But even this simple approach provides management with a reasonable basis to compare the returns from a buyback to other alternatives.
• 不少公司坐拥巨额现金储备。例如,科技巨头苹果、思科、Facebook、谷歌、微软、甲骨文和高通,它们的净现金合计高达 2820 亿美元,这相当于其总市值的 20% 以上。然而,在美国非金融企业总计 1.7 万亿美元的流动资产中,有超过 1 万亿美元存放于美国境外。这意味着,公司必须将资金汇回国内并缴纳税款,之后才能用于股息或股票回购。它们需要缴纳的税率,是美国税率与公司在当地已纳税率之间的差额。研究表明,面临高税率的企业更倾向于持有现金余额。
• A number of companies are sitting on enormous cash balances. For example, tech giants Apple, Cisco Systems, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Oracle, and Qualcomm have between them $282 billion in net cash, which represents more than 20 percent of their combined market 13 capitalizations. However, of the $1.7 trillion in aggregate liquid assets in U.S. nonfinancial companies, over $1 trillion is outside of the U.S. This means that companies must repatriate the cash and pay taxes before they can use the funds for dividends or share buybacks. The tax rate they have to pay is the difference between U.S. taxes and what the company paid in the local jurisdiction. Research shows that companies that face high taxes are more likely to hold cash balances. 14
因此,一些公司开始寻求在海外进行并购或其他投资,以在不产生税负的情况下配置资本。近期的案例包括惠普以 117 亿美元收购 Autonomy,以及微软以 85 亿美元收购 Skype。从股东的角度看,风险显而易见:管理层可能会发现——
As a result, some companies have been seeking to make acquisitions, or other investments, overseas in order to deploy capital without generating a tax bill. Recent examples include Hewlett-Packard’s acquisition of Autonomy for $11.7 billion and Microsoft’s purchase of Skype for $8.5 billion. 15 The risk, from the standpoint of shareholders, is clear: managers may find
收购回报率高于现金利率(相对有吸引力)但低于资金成本(绝对无吸引力)的企业。
acquisitions that earn more than the rate on cash (relatively attractive) but below the cost of capital (absolutely unattractive).
• 将海外现金汇回美国、缴纳美国税款并回购股份,在经济上是合理的。如果股价相对于内在价值的折价幅度超过汇回资金的税率,那么这种做法就是明智的。图表 4 列出了相关数据。该表假设股权成本为 8%。各行对应的是汇回美国资金的不同假设税率,即美国税率与现金所在司法管辖区税率之间的差额。
• There is an economic case for repatriating cash from overseas, paying the U.S. taxes, and buying back shares. This action makes sense if the discount to intrinsic value exceeds the tax rate of repatriated funds. Exhibit 4 provides the numbers. The table assumes a cost of equity of 8 percent. The rows reflect different assumed tax rates for funds repatriated to the U.S., which are the difference between the U.S tax rate and the tax rate in the jurisdiction where the cash resides.
表格的纵列是一系列价格-内在价值比率,数值越低,意味着相对于内在价值的折扣越大。表格主体部分填充的是股东回报率(等于权益资本成本除以股价与内在价值的比率)。除无阴影区域外,资金汇回加上回购对留存股东而言是中性乃至价值增加的。
The columns are a range of price-to-value ratios, which means that lower numbers imply a larger discount to intrinsic value. The body is filled with the shareholder rate of return (equals the cost of equity divided by the ratio of stock price to intrinsic value). In all but the unshaded areas, repatriation plus a buyback would be neutral to value additive for continuing shareholders.
附录 4:汇回现金并回购股票能否创造价值?
Exhibit 4: Does Repatriating Cash and Buying Back Stock Create Value?
原件此处是表格,PDF 抽取时列结构已丢失,下面只剩按列读出的数字,行列对应关系无法还原。核对数据请打开来源正文。
| 价格与内在价值之比 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 税率 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| 0% | 16.0% | 13.3% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 8.0% |
| 5% | 15.2% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 7.6% |
| 10% | 14.4% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% |
| 15% | 13.6% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.8% |
| 20% | 12.8% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% |
| 25% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% |
| 30% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% |
Price to intrinsic value ratio 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0% 16.0% 13.3% 11.4% 10.0% 8.9% 8.0% 5% 15.2% 12.7% 10.9% 9.5% 8.4% 7.6% 10% 14.4% 12.0% 10.3% 9.0% 8.0% 7.2% Tax rate 15% 13.6% 11.3% 9.7% 8.5% 7.6% 6.8% 20% 12.8% 10.7% 9.1% 8.0% 7.1% 6.4% 25% 12.0% 10.0% 8.6% 7.5% 6.7% 6.0% 30% 11.2% 9.3% 8.0% 7.0% 6.2% 5.6%
来源:LMCM。上表仅供说明之用,并不反映实际投资情况。
Source: LMCM. The table above is for illustrative purposes only and is not reflective of an actual investment.
• 高管应将大部分时间和精力投入到通过运营创造股东价值上。在股票回购方面,高管应做好几件事。首先,他们必须认识到,自己的目标是最大化长期股东的价值。
• Executives should spend the bulk of their time and effort in creating shareholder value through operations. With regard to share buybacks, executives should do a few things. First, they must realize that their objective is to maximize long-term value for their continuing shareholders.
第二,他们必须能够通过深思熟虑地评估公司的内在价值,并将该价值与当前市场价格进行比较,来判断回购的经济吸引力。最后,管理层必须能够评估回购相对于其他资本运用方式的吸引力,并认识到在某些情况下,回购股票比投资于业务本身能创造更多价值。这可能包括从海外汇回现金。
Second, they must be able to assess the economic attractiveness of buybacks by doing a thoughtful assessment of the intrinsic value of their company and compare that value to the prevailing price. Finally, management must be able to assess the attractiveness of buybacks versus alternate uses of the capital and recognize that there are instances when repurchasing shares creates more value than investing in the business does. This may include repatriating cash from overseas.
Shareholders:
Shareholders:
这里有一个非常基本的问题:如果你持有某家公司的股票,是因为你认为其股价被低估了,那你为什么还会希望公司派发股息,而不是回购股票呢?如果你认为股价被低估,那你就应该始终支持回购,因为回购是以卖出股东的利益为代价,为留存股东创造价值的。
• Here’s a very basic question: If you own the shares of a company because you believe the stock is undervalued, why would you ever want the company to pay a dividend instead of buying back shares? If you believe the shares are undervalued then you should always favor a buyback because buybacks add value for continuing shareholders at the expense of selling shareholders.
正如沃伦·巴菲特在伯克希尔·哈撒韦 1984 年年报中所写:“当拥有杰出业务和稳健财务状况的公司发现其股票在市场上以远低于内在价值的价格出售时,没有其他行为能像回购一样确定地使股东受益。”¹⁶ 也许,如果最终那句话改为“没有其他行为能像回购一样确定地使持续持股的股东受益”,会更加准确。
As Warren Buffett wrote in Berkshire Hathaway’s 1984 annual report, “When companies with outstanding businesses and comfortable financial positions find their shares selling far below intrinsic value in the marketplace, no alternative action can benefit shareholders as surely as repurchases.” 16 Perhaps the final phrase would be more accurate if it read, “no alternative action can benefit ongoing shareholders as surely as repurchases.”
• 如果你持有一家公司股票,该公司正在回购股份,你必须认识到:不作为本身就是一种作为——它正在提高你在这家公司中的持股比例。因此,如果你是长期股东,就不该指责管理层以较高价格回购股票。只要管理层在评估回购价值时遵循了合理流程,他们的结论就与你相同(假设你持有该股是因为你认为它被低估了)。企业和投资者都必须在信息不完整、充满不确定性的情况下做出决策。
• If the company of a stock that you own is buying back shares, you must recognize that doing nothing is doing something—increasing your percentage ownership in the company. As a consequence, if you are a longstanding shareholder it is inappropriate to criticize management for having bought back stock at a higher price. Provided that management used a proper process to assess the merit of the buyback, they have come to the same conclusion as you have (assuming that you own the shares because you think they are undervalued). Companies and investors have to make decisions in the face of incomplete information and uncertainty.
• 鼓励你所拥有的公司遵循回购的黄金法则:一家公司只应在股价低于其预期价值、且没有更优投资机会时回购自己的股份。多数高管考虑的是“增长与否”而非“价值创造与否”。有时,回购股份比投资于自身业务更具吸引力。
• Encourage the companies you own to adhere to the golden rule of buybacks: A company should repurchase its shares only when its stock is trading below its expected value and when no better investment opportunities are available. Most executives think in terms of “growth versus nogrowth” rather than “value creation versus value destruction.” There are times when repurchasing shares is more attractive than investing in the business.
• 想要股息的股东,完全可以通过按比例卖出一部分股票来“自制”一份股息。与正常的现金股息一样,这种合成股息让股东既拿到了现金,又保持了对公司相同比例的持股。回购通常比股息更优,因为它没有再投资风险,摩擦成本也很低。对于需要通过现金来维持当下消费的股东来说,合成股息是一个不错的解决方案。
• Shareholders who want a dividend can simply create one by selling a pro-rated amount of stock. As with a normal cash dividend, a synthetic dividend leaves the shareholder with cash and the same proportionate ownership of the company. Buybacks are generally more favorable than a dividend because there is no reinvestment risk and little friction. A synthetic dividend is a good solution for shareholders who want cash for current consumption.
投资者经常用过去的总股东回报(TSR)来预测未来回报。以下是计算 TSR 的一个简单公式,其中 g 是年化价格涨幅,d 是股息收益率:
• Investors frequently use past total shareholder return (TSR) as a guide to anticipate future returns. Here’s a simple formula to calculate TSR, where g is the annual rate of price appreciation and d is the dividend yield:
o TSR = g + d(1+g)
o TSR = g + d(1+g)
问题在于,对于派发股息的股票,几乎没有任何投资者能赚到全部股东总回报。这是因为股息通常需要纳税,而且一般不会重新投入同一只股票(要么因为用于消费,要么因为股息被分配到了其他投资上)。换句话说,只有当股东在一个免税账户里,将 100% 的股息自动重新投入该股票时,他才能赚到股东总回报,而这种情况很少发生。相比之下,通过回购向股东返还现金的公司,却能使其现有股东赚到股东总回报。
The problem is that with stocks that pay dividends, almost no investors earn the total shareholder return. This is because dividends are often taxable and generally don’t get reinvested back into the stock (either because of consumption or because the dividends are allocated to other investments). Said differently, a shareholder only earns the TSR if he automatically reinvests 100 17 percent of his dividends back into the stock in a tax-free account, which rarely happens. In contrast, companies that return cash to shareholders via buybacks allow their ongoing shareholders to earn the TSR.
• 股东会在市场价格远低于价值时买入公司股票。价值与价格之间的折价越大,随着市场弥合两者差距,股东的预期回报就越高(其他条件不变)。只要股东对价格和价值的判断正确,他就应该始终优先选择回购而非股息,因为回购会提高持续持股股东的每股价值。
• Shareholders seek to buy the shares of companies when the price in the market is well below the value. The larger the discount between value and price, the higher the expected return to shareholders (all else being equal) as the market closes the gap between the two. Provided a shareholder is right in his assessment of price and value, he should always prefer a buyback to a dividend because a buyback increases the value per share for continuing shareholders.
Prospective Shareholders:
Prospective Shareholders:
作为潜在股东,第一步是判断价格与价值之间是否存在差距。这个判断的核心在于评估管理层。而评估管理层的所有路径最终都指向资本配置:金融资本、实物资本和人力资本。激励机制与资本配置之间的相互作用固然重要,但管理层遵循的指导原则可能最为关键。
• Step one as a prospective shareholder is figuring out whether there’s a gap between price and value. Integral to that decision is an assessment of management. And all roads to managerial evaluation lead back to capital allocation: financial capital, physical capital, and human capital. The interplay between incentives and capital allocation is important, but the guiding principles of management are probably most important.
一家公司股票的价值,是该企业在其整个生命周期中产生的现金流的现值。一家公司若要具备价值,最终必须为所有者提供现金。
The value of a company’s stock is the present value of the cash the business will generate throughout its life. A company must ultimately provide its owners cash in order to have value.
这些现金可以以股息、回购或公司出售的形式返还。虽然管理层首要的职责是通过经营来创造价值,但深思熟虑地将现金返还给股东,也能带来可观的增值效果。
That cash can come in the form of dividends, share buybacks, or a sale of the company. While management’s first and foremost priority is building value through operations, a thoughtful approach to returning cash to shareholders can add meaningful value.
• 评估公司是否遵循回购的黄金法则:公司只应在股价低于其预期价值、且没有更优投资机会时才回购股票。分析公司资本配置选择的结果,并花时间理解其做出抉择的过程。与任何充满不确定性的领域一样,关注过程比观察短期结果更能揭示问题。若公司确实进行了股票回购,要评估其动机——回购的理由是否正当。
• Assess whether the company is following the golden rule of buybacks: A company should repurchase its shares only when its stock is trading below its expected value and when no better investment opportunities are available. Analyze the results of the company’s capital allocation choices and spend time understanding the process by which they make their choices. As in any field filled with uncertainty, a focus on process is more revealing than observing short-term outcomes. If the company did buy back stock, assess their motivation. Did they do it for the right reasons?
• 请注意,有证据表明,通过启动股息、回购和分拆来减少资产增长的公司,其股东回报优于那些快速扩张资本基础的公司。请判断是否存在足够的证据表明其资本配置纪律。此外,研究表明,返还现金的公司实际上比所有公司的平均增长更快。
• Note the evidence that shows that companies that reduce asset growth via dividend initiations, buybacks, and spinoffs generate better shareholder returns than companies that grow their capital bases rapidly. Judge whether there is sufficient evidence of capital deployment discipline. Further, the research shows that companies that return cash actually grow faster than the average of all companies.
• 分析公司的资本结构,判断其是否资本过剩。如前所述,目前现金余额非常高,自由现金流生成能力依然强劲。形成有依据的判断,了解管理层可能如何配置资本。这些资金是否会择机返还给股东?公司是否会追求增长?企业是否会让现金留在资产负债表上,形成一种期权?
• Analyze the company’s capital structure and ask whether it’s overcapitalized. As noted earlier, cash balances today are very high and free cash flow generation remains strong. Develop an informed view of how management is likely to deploy the capital. Will the funds be returned to shareholders opportunistically? Will the company chase growth? Will the firm allow the cash to sit on the balance sheet, creating an option?
Media:
Media:
• 多数媒体从业者几乎没有或根本没有金融方面的训练。问题在于,当媒体人士基于错误的事实或思维来评论回购是否具有吸引力时,这种情况就会出现。不幸的是,这类论述比比皆是。
• Most members of the media have little or no training in finance. The problem arises when members of the media comment on how attractive or unattractive a buyback is based on faulty facts or thinking. Unfortunately, there is a good deal of this type of exposition.
• 先讲清楚一点:一家公司若以高于当前股价的价格回购股票,只要决策过程是恰当的,就并非罪过。所谓恰当的决策过程,是指公司当时基于已有的事实与信息,经过深思熟虑评估自身价值后,认定回购价格低于内在价值。当然,实际情况是大多数高管总认为自家股票被低估了,因此他们的回购动机未必恰当。但关键在于:不能因为回购后股价下跌,就认定那是一次糟糕的决策。
• First things first: A company that bought back stock at a price that is higher than its current price has not committed a sin if the decision-making process was proper. A process is proper if the company thoughtfully assessed its value using the facts and information it had at the time and deemed the price to be below that value. Now, the fact is that most executives always think that their stock is undervalued, and so their motivation to buy may not be proper. But the point is that just because a stock has fallen subsequent to a buyback does not mean it was a poor decision.
正如我们之前所看到的,价值是守恒的。不同的只是卖出股东和继续持有股东受到的待遇不同。这里有一个值得思考的相关问题:如果一家公司在股价更高的时候派发股息,你会为难它吗?不太可能。
As we saw earlier, value is conserved. It’s just that the selling and ongoing shareholders are treated differently. Here’s a related question to contemplate: Would you give a company a hard time if it paid out a dividend when the stock was higher? Unlikely.
• 别再散播那种谬论了,说什么投资者觉得回购好是因为回购通过用更少的股数来分利润,从而提高了每股收益。这里有一段典型表述:“回购有一些有用之处。减少流通股有助于公司提升每股收益,因为利润由更少的股份来分摊。”这在算术上就不成立,在经济上就更站不住脚了。正如我们之前看到的,回购对每股收益的影响取决于利率(要么是用于回购股份的现金所放弃的利息收入,要么是为借款回购而承担的利息支出)以及市盈率倍数的倒数,也就是盈利收益率。每股收益的影响与经济影响是两码事。
• Stop with the canard that investors deem buybacks to be good because they increase earnings per share (EPS) by dividing profits by a smaller number of shares. Here’s a typical quotation: “Buybacks serve some useful purposes. Reducing the outstanding stock can help a company 18 boost per-share earnings, as the profit is divided by fewer shares.” This is not even arithmetically true, much less economically valid. As seen earlier, the EPS impact of a buyback is a function of the interest rate (either foregone interest income on cash deployed to buy back shares or the interest expense assumed to borrow to buy shares) and the reciprocal of the P/E multiple, or earnings yield. The EPS effect is separate from the economic effect.
• 向投资者返还资本至关重要,资本再配置是资本市场的核心功能。尽管许多投资者依赖代理人(如共同基金、对冲基金)代为投资,但将资本从低回报领域重新配置到高回报机会,对经济的长期健康至关重要,而回购正是实现这一目标的高效方式之一。
• Returning capital to investors is vital, and redeployment of capital is an essential function of the capital markets. While many investors rely on agents to invest on their behalf (e.g., mutual funds, hedge funds), redeploying capital from low-return to high-return opportunities is crucial to the long-term health of the economy, and buybacks can be a very efficient way to achieve that goal.
• 股票回购不应被轻蔑地称为“金融工程”。如果操作得当,这是一种深思熟虑且高效的方式,能将资本返还给所有者。有些公司可能出于错误的原因进行回购,例如抬高股价或抵消薪酬计划带来的稀释效应,但证据表明,这类操作几乎不会产生或根本没有持久效果。
• Share buybacks should not be derisively called “financial engineering.” If done properly, they are a thoughtful and effective means to return capital to owners. Some companies may pursue buybacks for the wrong reasons, including boosting the stock price or offsetting dilution from compensation programs, but the evidence shows that such moves have little or no lasting 19 effects.
Endnotes:
Endnotes:
1 John J. McConnell 和 Chris J. Muscarella,《企业资本支出决策与公司市场价值》,《金融经济学杂志》,第 14 卷,第 3 期,1985 年 9 月,第 399-422 页;Kee H. Chung,Peter Wright 和 Charlie Charoenwong,《投资机会与市场对资本支出决策的反应》,《银行与金融杂志》,第 22 卷,第 1 期,1998 年 1 月,第 41-60 页。 2 Robert F. Bruner,《地狱交易:从灰烬中崛起的并购教训》(新泽西州霍博肯:John Wiley & Sons,2005 年)。
1 John J. McConnell and Chris J. Muscarella, “Corporate Capital Expenditures Decisions and the Market Value of the Firm,” Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 14, No. 3, September 1985, 399-422; Kee H. Chung, Peter Wright, and Charlie Charoenwong, “Investment Opportunities and Market Reaction to Capital Expenditure Decisions,” Journal of Banking & Finance, Vol. 22, No. 1, January 1998, 41-60. 2 Robert F. Bruner, Deals from Hell: M&A Lessons That Rise Above the Ashes (Hoboken, N.J.: John Wiley & Sons, 2005).
3 Mark L. Sirower 与 Sumit Sahni,〈避开“协同效应陷阱”:为 CEO 和董事会提供的并购决策实用指南〉,《应用公司金融杂志》,第 18 卷,第 3 期,2006 年夏季,第 83-95 页。4 相关证明参见 Michael J. Mauboussin,〈清晰思考股票回购:资本配置、股息与股票回购〉,《Mauboussin 论战略》,2006 年 1 月 10 日,第 16-17 页。
3 Mark L. Sirower and Sumit Sahni, “Avoiding the ‘Synergy Trap’: Practical Guidance on M&A Decisions for CEOs and Boards,” Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Vol. 18, No. 3, Summer 2006, 83-95. 4 For a proof, see Michael J. Mauboussin, “Clear Thinking about Share Repurchase: Capital Allocation, Dividends, and Share Repurchase,” Mauboussin on Strategy, January 10, 2006, 16-17.
5 Mark T. Leary 和 Roni Michaely,《股息平滑的決定因素:实证证据》,《金融研究評论》,第 24 卷,第 10 期,2011 年 10 月,第 3199-3249 页。另参见 Alon Brav、John R. Graham、Campbell R. Harvey 和 Roni Michaely,《21 世紀的派息政策》,《金融经济学杂誌》,第 77 卷,第 3 期,2005 年 9 月,第 483-527 页。
5 Mark T. Leary and Roni Michaely, “Determinants of Dividend Smoothing: Empirical Evidence,” Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 24, No. 10, October 2011, 3199-3249. Also, Alon Brav, John R. Graham, Campbell R. Harvey, and Roni Michaely, “Payout Policy in the 21st Century,” Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 77, No. 3, September 2005, 483-527.
6. Gustavo Grullon、Bradley Paye、Shane Underwood 和 James P. Weston 合著的《支付倾向是否已经下降?》(Has the Propensity to Pay Declined?),载于《金融与定量分析杂志》(Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis)第 46 卷第 1 期,2011 年 2 月,第 1-24 页。另参见 Jacob Boudoukh、Roni Michaely、Matthew Richardson 和 Michael R. Roberts 合著的《论衡量股息收益率的重要性:对实证资产定价的启示》(On the Importance of Measuring Payout Yield: Implications for Empirical Asset Pricing),载于《金融学杂志》(Journal of Finance)第 63 卷第 2 期,2007 年 4 月,第 877-915 页。
6 Gustavo Grullon, Bradley Paye, Shane Underwood, and James P. Weston, “Has the Propensity to Pay Declined?” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 46, No. 1, February 2011, 1-24. Also, Jacob Boudoukh, Roni Michaely, Matthew Richardson, and Michael R. Roberts, “On the Importance of Measuring Payout Yield: Implications for Empirical Asset Pricing,” Journal of Finance, Vol. 63, No. 2, April 2007, 877-915.
7 迈克尔·J·莫布森,《股息在财富积累中的真实角色:澄清关于股息的混乱思维》,《莫布森论战略》,2011 年 1 月 25 日。
7 Michael J. Mauboussin, “The Real Role of Dividends in Building Wealth: Clearing Up Muddled Thinking About Dividends,” Mauboussin on Strategy, January 25, 2011.
8 Michael J. Cooper, Huseyin Gulen 和 Michael J. Schill 的《资产增长与股票回报的横截面分析》,载于《金融学刊》第 63 卷第 4 期,2008 年 8 月,第 1609-1651 页;以及 Xi Li、Ying Becker 和 Didier Rosenfeld, CFA 的《资产增长与未来股票回报:国际证据》,载于《金融分析师期刊》第 68 卷第 3 期,2012 年 5 月/6 月,第 51-62 页。另有 Doron Nissim 和 Amir Ziv 的《股息变化与未来盈利能力》,载于《金融学刊》第 56 卷第 6 期,2001 年 12 月,第 2111-2133 页;以及 Robert D. Arnott 和 Clifford S. Asness 的《意外!更高股息 = 更高盈利增长》,载于《金融分析师期刊》第 59 卷第 1 期,2003 年 1 月/2 月,第 70-87 页。
8 Michael J. Cooper, Huseyin Gulen, and Michael J. Schill, “Asset Growth and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns,” Journal of Finance, Vol. 63, No. 4, August 2008, 1609-1651 and Xi Li, Ying Becker, and Didier Rosenfeld, CFA, “Asset Growth and Future Stock Returns: International Evidence,” Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 68, No. 3, May/June 2012, 51-62. Also, Doron Nissim and Amir Ziv, “Dividend Changes and Future Profitability,” Journal of Finance, Vol. 56, No. 6, December 2001, 2111- 2133 and Robert D. Arnott and Clifford S. Asness, “Surprise! Higher Dividends = Higher Earnings Growth,” Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 59, No. 1, January/February 2003, 70-87.
9 请参见 http://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/Guide/P_67_coded.pdf。
9 See http://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/Guide/P_67_coded.pdf.
10 阿尔弗雷德·拉帕波特与迈克尔·J·莫布森,《预期投资:读懂股价获取更高回报》(波士顿,马萨诸塞州:哈佛商学院出版社,2001 年),第 174 页。
10 Alfred Rappaport and Michael J. Mauboussin, Expectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns (Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press, 2001), 174.
11 Kathleen M. Kahle,“当回购不是回购:公开市场回购与员工期权”,《金融经济学杂志》,第 63 卷,第 2 期,2002 年 2 月,第 235-261 页。
11 Kathleen M. Kahle, “When a Buyback Isn’t a Buyback: Open Market Repurchases and Employee Options,” Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 63, No. 2, February, 2002, 235-261.
12 Alice A. Bonaimé、Kristine W. Hankins 和 Bradford D. Jordon,《管理层灵活性对股东有利吗?来自回购的证据》,SSRN 工作论文,2012 年 3 月 15 日。
12 Alice A. Bonaimé, Kristine W. Hankins, and Bradford D. Jordon, “Is Managerial Flexibility Good for Shareholders? Evidence from Share Repurchases,” SSRN Working Paper, March 15, 2012.
13 安德鲁·巴里,“把钱亮出来,”《巴伦周刊》,2012 年 5 月 26 日。
13 Andrew Bary, “Show Us the Money,” Barron’s, May 26, 2012.
14 C. Fritz Foley、Jay C. Hartzell、Sheridan Titman 及 Garry Twite 合著的《为何企业持有如此多现金?基于税收的解释》(“Why Do Firms Hold So Much Cash? A Tax-based Explanation”),载于《金融经济学杂志》2007 年 12 月第 86 卷第 3 期,第 579-607 页。15 Michael J. De La Merced 撰写的《在 Autonomy 交易中,惠普花费海外现金的一种方式》(“In Autonomy Deal, a Way for H.P. to Spend Overseas Cash”),载于《纽约时报》DealBook 专栏,2011 年 8 月 18 日。
14 C. Fritz Foley, Jay C. Hartzell, Sheridan Titman, and Garry Twite, “Why Do Firms Hold So Much Cash? A Tax-based Explanation,” Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 86, No. 3, December 2007, 579-607. 15 Michael J. De La Merced, “In Autonomy Deal, a Way for H.P. to Spend Overseas Cash,” New York Times DealBook, August 18, 2011.
16 参阅 http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1984.html。
16 See http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1984.html.
17 Alfred Rappaport,“股息再投资、价格上涨与资本积累”,《投资组合管理期刊》,第 32 卷,第 3 期,2006 年春季,第 119-123 页。
17 Alfred Rappaport, “Dividend Reinvestment, Price Appreciation and Capital Accumulation,” Journal of Portfolio Management, Vol. 32, No. 3, Spring 2006, 119-123.
18 Rob Cox、Jeff Segal 与 John Foley 合著,“Expedia 的回购意外”,《华尔街日报》,2007 年 6 月 20 日。
18 Rob Cox, Jeff Segal, and John Foley, “Expedia’s Buyback Surprise,” Wall Street Journal, June 20, 2007.
19 Konan Chan、David L. Ikenberry、Inmoo Lee 和 Yanzhi Wang 合著,《股票回购作为可能误导投资者的工具》,《公司金融期刊》,第 16 卷第 2 期,2010 年 4 月,第 137-158 页。
19 Konan Chan, David L. Ikenberry, Inmoo Lee, and Yanzhi Wang, “Share Repurchase as a Potential Tool to Mislead Investors,” Journal of Corporate Finance, Vol. 16, No. 2, April 2010, 137-158.
重要风险 所有投资均面临风险,包括本金损失的风险。
Important risks All investments are subject to risks, including loss of principal.
本文档仅供参考,不构成对公众的投资邀约。请注意,文中所述的投资机会通常应被视为长期投资,可能并不适合所有人。投资的价值及收益可有涨有跌,投资者未必能收回最初投入的本金,且可能受到利率、汇率、整体市场状况、政治、社会及经济发展以及其他可变因素的影响。过往业绩不代表未来回报,且未必会重现。投资涉及风险,包括但不限于可能的付款延迟以及收入或本金的损失。美盛集团及其任何关联公司均不担保任何收益率或本金返还。需要注意的是,投资者无法直接投资于某个指数。前瞻性陈述受不确定性影响,实际发展与结果可能与预期存在重大差异。本文信息源自被认为可靠的来源,但无法保证其准确性和完整性,亦非所有可用数据的完整摘要或陈述。文中提及的个别证券仅为投资组合持仓示例,并非买入或卖出建议。美盛集团或其关联公司所表达的信息和意见以所示日期为准,如有变更恕不另行通知,且未考虑个别投资者的特定投资目标、财务状况或需求。本文档所含信息属保密及专有性质,仅供预期使用者使用。美盛集团或其任何高管或员工对因使用本文档或其内容而产生的任何损失概不承担任何责任。未经美盛集团事先书面许可,不得复制、分发或出版本文档。
This document is for information only and does not constitute an invitation to the public to invest. You should be aware that the investment opportunities described should normally be regarded as longer term investments and they may not be suitable for everyone. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amounts originally invested, and can be affected by changes in interest rates, in exchange rates, general market conditions, political, social and economic developments and other variable factors. Past performance is no guide to future returns and may not be repeated. Investment involves risks including but not limited to, possible delays in payments and loss of income or capital. Neither Legg Mason nor any of its affiliates guarantees any rate of return or the return of capital invested. Please note that an investor cannot invest directly in an index. Forward-looking statements are subject to uncertainties that could cause actual developments and results to differ materially from the expectations expressed. This information has been prepared from sources believed reliable but the accuracy and completeness of the information cannot be guaranteed and is not a complete summary or statement of all available data. Individual securities mentioned are intended as examples of portfolio holdings and are not intended as buy or sell recommendations. Information and opinions expressed by either Legg Mason or its affiliates are current as of the date indicated, are subject to change without notice, and do not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual investors. The information in this document is confidential and proprietary and may not be used other than by the intended user. Neither Legg Mason nor any officer or employee of Legg Mason accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published without prior written permission from Legg Mason.
分发本文件在某些司法管辖区可能受到限制。任何获得本文件的人士应就相关限制细节寻求建议,并遵守此类限制(如有)。
Distribution of this document may be restricted in certain jurisdictions. Any persons coming into possession of this document should seek advice for details of, and observe such restrictions (if any).
本文件可能由与下文提及的实体存在关联关系的顾问或实体编制,该关联关系通过 Legg Mason, Inc. 的共同控制和所有权实现。
This document may have been prepared by an advisor or entity affiliated with an entity mentioned below through common control and ownership by Legg Mason, Inc.
本材料仅限所列司法管辖区内分发。
This material is only for distribution in the jurisdictions listed.
欧洲的投资者们:
Investors in Europe:
由美盛投资(欧洲)有限公司发行并批准,注册地址为 201 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 3AB。在英格兰和威尔士注册,公司编号 1732037。由金融服务管理局授权并监管。客户服务电话:+44 (0)207 070 7444。本文件供欧盟及欧洲经济区国家的专业客户和合格交易对手使用。在瑞士,本文件仅供合格投资者使用。不面向或供任何欧洲司法管辖区的零售客户使用。
Issued and approved by Legg Mason Investments (Europe) Limited, registered office 201 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 3AB. Registered in England and Wales, Company No. 1732037. Authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Client Services +44 (0)207 070 7444. This document is for use by Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties in EU and EEA countries. In Switzerland this document is only for use by Qualified Investors. It is not aimed at, or for use by, Retail Clients in any European jurisdictions.
香港、韩国、台湾和新加坡的投资者们:
Investors in Hong Kong, Korea, Taiwan and Singapore:
本文件由美盛资产管理(香港)有限公司在香港与韩国提供、由美盛资产管理(新加坡)私人有限公司(统一企业编号:200007942R)在新加坡提供、由美盛投资(台湾)有限公司提供。
This document is provided by Legg Mason Asset Management Hong Kong Limited in Hong Kong and Korea, Legg Mason Asset Management Singapore Pte. Limited (Registration Number (UEN): 200007942R) in Singapore and Legg Mason Investments (Taiwan) Limited (Registration Number:
(98) 金管投顾新字第 001 号;地址:台湾 110 台北市信义路五段 7 号台北 101 大厦 55 楼 E 室;电话:(886) 2-8722 1666)在台湾。美盛投顾(台湾)有限公司独立运营并管理其业务。本资料仅供香港、韩国、新加坡及台湾的销售机构使用,不适用于或不得分发至香港、韩国、新加坡及台湾的任何公众人士。
(98) Jin Guan Tou Gu Xin Zi Di 001; Address: Suite E, 55F, Taipei 101 Tower, 7, Xin Yi Road, Section 5, Taipei 110, Taiwan, R.O.C.; Tel: (886) 2-8722 1666) in Taiwan. Legg Mason Investments (Taiwan) Limited operates and manages its business independently. It is intended for distributors use only in respectively Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan. It is not intended for, nor should it be distributed to, any member of the public in Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan.
美洲的投资者:
Investors in the Americas:
本文件由美盛投资服务有限责任公司(Legg Mason Investor Services LLC)提供,该公司为美国注册的经纪交易商,并可能包括美盛国际-美洲离岸业务。美盛投资服务有限责任公司(Legg Mason Investor Services, LLC)是 FINRA/SIPC 成员,且所有提及的实体均为美盛公司(Legg Mason, Inc.)的子公司。
This document is provided by Legg Mason Investor Services LLC, a U.S. registered Broker-Dealer, which may include Legg Mason International - Americas Offshore. Legg Mason Investor Services, LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC, and all entities mentioned are subsidiaries of Legg Mason, Inc.
加拿大投资者:
Investors in Canada:
本文件由美盛加拿大公司(Legg Mason Canada Inc.)提供。地址:安大略省多伦多市湾街 220 号 4 楼,邮编 M5J 2W4。美盛加拿大公司与上文提及的美盛旗下各公司同属美盛有限公司(Legg Mason, Inc.)共同控制与所有,因此彼此存在关联关系。
This document is provided by Legg Mason Canada Inc. Address: 220 Bay Street, 4th Floor, Toronto, ON M5J 2W4. Legg Mason Canada Inc. is affiliated with the Legg Mason companies mentioned above through common control and ownership by Legg Mason, Inc.
澳大利亚的投资者:
Investors in Australia:
本文件由美盛资产管理澳大利亚有限公司(ABN 76 004 835 839,AFSL 204827)(“美盛”)发布。其内容具有专有性和保密性,仅供美盛及其客户或潜在客户使用,不得复制或分发给任何其他人士,除非是客户的职业顾问。
This document is issued by Legg Mason Asset Management Australia Limited (ABN 76 004 835 839, AFSL 204827) (“Legg Mason”). The contents are proprietary and confidential and intended solely for the use of Legg Mason and the clients or prospective clients to whom it has been delivered. It is not to be reproduced or distributed to any other person except to the client’s professional advisers.
本材料不得在美国境外公开分发。
This material is not for public distribution outside the United States of America.
本材料由 Brandywine Global Investment Management, LLC 编制,并由 Legg Mason Investor Services, LLC 分发。
Materials were prepared by Brandywine Global Investment Management, LLC and distributed by Legg Mason Investor Services, LLC.
Legg Mason Perspectives® 是 Legg Mason Investor Services, LLC 的注册商标。
Legg Mason Perspectives® is a registered trademark of Legg Mason Investor Services, LLC.
© 2012 莱格梅森投资者服务有限责任公司。FINRA、SIPC 成员。莱格梅森资本管理公司(莱格梅森有限责任公司)、莱格梅森投资者服务有限责任公司以及上述所有实体均为莱格梅森公司的子公司。407489 MIPX014745 6/12 FN1211943
© 2012 Legg Mason Investor Services, LLC. Member FINRA, SIPC. Legg Mason Capital Management of Legg Mason, LLC. and Legg Mason Investor Services, LLC and all entities mentioned above are subsidiaries of Legg Mason, Inc. 407489 MIPX014745 6/12 FN1211943