诺玛德投资合伙公司——年度信函(截至2006年12月31日)

2006 · 书信 · 原文约 7672 词
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睡眠、扎卡里亚公司

Sleep, Zakaria and Company, Ltd.

1a, Burnsall Street London England SW3 3SR T: +44 (0) 20 7101 1960 F: +44 (0) 20 7101 1965 诺马德投资合伙基金年度致函 截至 2006 年 12 月 31 日的年度 截至 2006 年 12 月 31 日 诺马德投资合伙基金 MSCI 世界指数(净收益) 美元 一年* +13.6% +20.1% 两年 +24.1% +31.5% 三年 +51.3% +51.5% 四年 +171.8% +103.0% 五年 +175.3% +63.8% 自成立以来(2001 年 9 月 10 日) +203.2% +70.2% 自成立以来年化 扣除业绩报酬前 +23.2% +10.6% 扣除业绩报酬后 +20.4% 上表数据未经审计,以累计基准列示(已扣除管理费、合伙基金运营成本,包括托管人、审计师和行政管理费,但未扣除业绩报酬)。下表以离散的年度增量呈现相同结果。我们认为,在评估长期投资业绩时,上表最为有用。

1a, Burnsall Street London England SW3 3SR T: +44 (0) 20 7101 1960 F: +44 (0) 20 7101 1965 Nomad Investment Partnership Annual Letter For the period ended December 31st, 2006 To December 31st, 2006 Nomad Investment MSCI World Partnership Index (net) US$ One year* +13.6% +20.1% Two years +24.1 +31.5 Three years +51.3 +51.5 Four years +171.8 +103.0 Five years +175.3 +63.8 Since inception (Sept 10th 2001) +203.2 +70.2 Annualized since inception Before performance fees +23.2% +10.6% After performance fees +20.4 The figures above are unaudited and presented on a cumulative basis (after management fees, the cost of running the Partnership including custodian, auditor and administrator fees, but before performance fees). Below the same results are presented in discrete annual increments. In our opinion it is the upper table that is most useful in assessing long-term investment performance.

截至 2006 年 12 月 31 日:Nomad 投资 MSCI 世界指数(净收益) 美元

2006 年 +13.6% +20.1%

2005 年 +9.2% +9.5%

2004 年 +22.0% +15.2%

2003 年 +79.6% +34.0%

2002 年 +1.3% -19.3%

2001 年(自 2001 年 9 月 10 日成立) +10.1% +3.9%

基准指数 2006 年

对扎克和我来说,2006 年在几乎所有方面都是相当不错的一年,只有一个例外:Nomad 成功与母校分离,新的可退还业绩费及成本补偿管理费(也许毫不意外!)被合伙人接受**,而且我们大致上在伯恩萨尔街的银河总部,建立了运营有效投资职能所需的全部系统。即便如此,业绩(尤其是相对于上面指数所呈现的另一种选择而言)也只能算马马虎虎。绝对收益还算可以,当我们沿着复利之路前行时或许也算合理,但恐怕在 2006 年,你如果买了指数基金(要是我们事先知道该买哪只就好了?)会做得更好。

To December 31st, 2006: Nomad Investment MSCI World Partnership Index (net) US$ 2006 +13.6% +20.1% 2005 +9.2 +9.5 2004 +22.0 +15.2 2003 +79.6 +34.0 2002 +1.3 -19.3 2001 (inception Sept 10th 2001) +10.1 +3.9 The Benchmark 2006 was quite a year for Zak and me in all respects bar one: Nomad was successfully separated from its alma mater, the new refundable performance fee and cost reimbursement management fees were (perhaps unsurprisingly!) accepted by Partners**, and we seem, broadly, to have all the systems we need to operate an effective investment function established in Galactic headquarters at Burnsall Street. Even so performance, certainly relative to one alternative presented by the index described above, was only so-so. Alright in absolute terms, and reasonable perhaps as we compound our way along but, I’m afraid, in 2006 you would have done better buying an index fund (if only we knew which to buy in advance?)

所以,为了避免混淆:这个指数并不是我们的基准。扎克和我完全不花时间思考这个指数(实际上,在我着手写这封信之前,我们并不知道指数的回报),它在信首出现,更多是反映我们源自一家参考指数的投资公司,而非反映我们的投资倾向。如果今天重新创立诺玛德,我不确定我们还会不会这样展示业绩。但无论如何,我们暂时仍会把指数放在信的开头,因为对部分合伙人来说,它或许有助于理解我们的业绩处于怎样的背景中。

So, there is no confusion: the index is not our benchmark. Zak and I spend no time at all thinking about the index (indeed we were unaware of the index return until I set about writing this letter) and its inclusion at the top of this letter reflects our genesis in an index-relative investment firm more than our orientation. If we started Nomad again today, I’m not sure we would present results this way but, be that as it may, we will leave the index at the top of this letter for now, as for some Partners it may be helpful in placing our results in context.

扎克和我见证了许多投资者通过指数思考而做出糟糕的投资决策。最常见的错误是把指数(实际上任何指数?)视为无风险的“家园”。在亚洲危机和科技泡沫之前,非理性的指数泡沫已经存在,但这种看法至今仍未消失,或许正说明了金融界营销手段的强大。一旦指数被视为无风险,接踵而来的错误包括:要求对指数内部的每项资产都有看法,而不论是否在自己的能力圈内;不愿投资其他更好的机会;以及过度分散。这三个错误摧毁了大量资本。我们曾看到一位国家经理的报告,声称尽管他所在的国家表现不佳,但作为全球基金的“组合分散器”仍很有价值:过去几周,无数人皱着眉头琢磨这句话到底什么意思!即便如此,对标指数的基金仍是行业主流,因为它们卖得动。而它们卖得动,是因为客户不信任他们的基金经理,不愿把法拉利的钥匙交给他。这是一个糟糕的浮士德式契约。

Zak and I have witnessed many investors make terrible investment decisions from thinking via the index. The most common mistake is to view the index (indeed any index?) as a risk-free “home”. That this disposition still exists after the irrational index bubbles that preceded the Asian crisis and technology collapse may be testament to the strength of the marketing skills of the financial establishment. Once the index is seen as risk free the mistakes that follow cascade and include: requirement to have an opinion on everything inside the index regardless of one’s circle of competence, an unwillingness to invest in other better opportunities, and over diversification. These three mistakes destroy a lot of capital. We came across one country manager’s report claiming that although his country had done poorly it had proved valuable as a “portfolio diversifier” in a global fund: Many a furrowed brow these last few weeks figuring out what that means! Even so, index relative funds are the industry norm because they sell. And they sell because the client does not trust their manager with the keys to the Ferrari. It is a ghastly Faustian pact.

当我们主张指数并非无风险、它只是众多机会集合中的一个时,我们走的是那条少有人走的路。今年,这个机会集合打败了我们。明年它可能还会再赢,后年也一样。我们都应该为这种可能性做好准备,并在它发生时保持淡定。理性的人明白,终点才是重要的,如果我们在选股上有些许技巧(拜托,别寄明信片来告诉我答案!),那么虽然年度回报可能上蹿下跳,但我们的终点会领先指数一些。扎克和我并不嫉妒指数的回报,我们也鼓励你不要嫉妒。我们把自己的目标看得远比那更个人化——我们的目标是留下值得骄傲的业绩记录,我们想要完成一些有意义的事。为此,我们力求长期获得与我们极为钦佩的那些投资者(鲁安、特威迪·布朗、卡拉曼、惠特曼、霍金斯、米勒、施洛斯、伯科威茨)相当的回报。我们绝不保证这样的回报,但如果我们能接近他们的业绩,那么长期来看,我们也终将战胜指数。

We are walking down the road less traveled when we argue that the index is not risk free, it is one, of many, opportunity sets. This year that opportunity set beat us. It may do so again next year too. And the year after that. We should all be prepared for that possibility and stoic at its occurrence. A rational mind understands that it is the destination that is important, and if we have some skill in picking stocks (please, no answers on a post card!) then, whilst annual returns may bounce around, our destination will be some way ahead of the index. Zak and I are not envious of index returns and we encourage you not to be either. We see our goal as far more personal than that. Our goal is a track record to be proud of, we wish to accomplish something meaningful, and to do that we aim to earn returns, over time, on par with those investors we greatly admire (Ruane, Tweedy, Klarman, Whitman, Hawkins, Miller, Schloss, Berkowitz). In no way do we guarantee returns, but if we can approach their results then, over time, we will beat the index too.

Nomad 成立五周年恰逢 2006 年 9 月,这是一个合适的里程碑,可以借此评估迄今的旅程。五周年纪念日过去几周后,股价(未扣除业绩报酬前)突破了 3000 美元,这意味着原始投资在五年多一点的时间里翻了三倍。(我们通常引用扣除业绩报酬前的业绩。我们这样做是因为许多合伙人的认购日期不同,并且由于计算业绩报酬时使用的是 6% 的业绩门槛,因此他们的扣除业绩报酬后的收益会各不相同。年末扣除业绩报酬后的股价为 2680 美元)。在一个利率为 5% 的世界里,五年期每年 23% 的复利或许超出了我们心目中的正常表现,并且正如我们过去所说,这反映了早期阶段的机会集。

The fifth anniversary of the inception of Nomad occurred in September 2006 and represents a suitable milestone from which to assess the journey so far. A few weeks after the anniversary the share price rose through U$3000 (before performance fees) and this means that it took a little over five years to triple the original dollar invested. (We usually quote performance before performance fees. We do this as many Partners have different subscription dates and, due to the 6% performance hurdle used to calculate fees, will therefore have various net-of-performance-fee experiences. The net-of-performance-fee share price was U$2680 at year-end). 23% per cent compound per annum for five years in a 5% interest rate world is perhaps ahead of what we might consider normal performance and, as we have said in the past, reflects the opportunity set in the early days.

今年我们的相对表现在两个方面:第一,我们的公司大多在大力进行业务再投资,而此时市场正追随私募股权买家的风向,青睐那些当前自由现金流充裕的企业。第二,诺曼德向 SZ 公司的转型带来了大量一次性工作,其中绝大部分是定制化工作(尤其是可退还的业绩费),这很可能分散了我们对日常工作的专注。扎克和我认为,非投资类的干扰因素是我们运营中最大的单一风险,我们正在着手解决。阿曼达拥有她所需的预算来让我们下放职责,但这个过程对我们来说还很陌生,我们正在边做边学。

There are two reasons for our relative performance this year – the first is that our companies, by and large, are reinvesting heavily in their businesses at a time when the market, taking its cue from the private equity buyers, have rewarded firms with high levels of current free cash flow. Second, it is also possible that the one-off workload associated with the transition of Nomad to SZ and Co, a very high proportion of which was bespoke work (notably the refundable performance fee), diverted attention from the day job. Zak and I consider non-investment distractions to be the single biggest risk to our operation and we are on to it. Amanda has the budget she needs to allow us to devolve duties but this process is new to us and we are learning as we go.

1948 年,弗雷迪·塞特林顿(他很少使用“马奇勋爵”这个头衔)在其苏塞克斯庄园一角机场的环场道路上,举办了第一场赛车赛事。起初规模不大,正如首场比赛秩序册前言所言:“我们开门见山地说,这场比赛是个实验。这次,我们无法为您提供看台座位——甚至根本没有座位。您能买到一些茶点,广播人员也会尽力确保您听到退赛车手和获胜车手的号码。”

In 1948, Freddie Settrington (he rarely used the title Lord March) hosted his first motor racing event on the perimeter road of the airfield that lay in one corner of his Sussex estate. At first it was a modest affair, as the foreword to the first race card makes clear: “We’ll be quite frank with you from the start. This race meeting is an experiment. We cannot, on this occasion, offer you a seat in a grandstand – or even a seat at all. You’ll be able to obtain some refreshments, and the loudspeaker people will do their best to make certain you hear the numbers of non-starters and of the winners.

我们认为你会看到一场相当精彩的比赛,如果表演能按时进行,你也会和我们一样感到意外。但如果一个成熟的体育场馆所具备的各种精良设施尚未到位,请相信我们,它们终会出现——尤其如果我们今天的演出取得成功的话。

“We think you will see some quite good racing and share our surprise if the programme keeps up to time. But if all the refinements of a fully developed sporting arena are missing take our word for it, they will appear eventually- particularly if we have any success with the show today.

“与此同时,为了让今天的会议得以召开,我们进行了数月之久的谈判。政府各部门都牵涉其中——你们知道那意味着什么——但我们顽强地坚守岗位,终于走到了这一步。为了公正评价那些与我们谈判的人,我们必须说,政府官员们的表现远不止是‘有帮助’而已。工程部的官员们穿着衬衫、打着领带,像你我一样吃喝,抽着三先令六便士一包的香烟。不过,有时候他们在汽油问题上倒是能沾点便宜。”

“Meanwhile, months of negotiations have been necessary, just to make to-day’s meeting possible. Government Departments have been involved – and you know what that means – but we’ve stuck manfully to the job, and here we are. To do justice to those with whom we have been called upon to negotiate, we must say that Government people have been more than helpful. Ministry of Works officials wear collars and ties, drink and eat just like you or I, and smoke cigarettes at 3s.6d. a packet. Sometimes, though, they do a little better with petrol.

我们还得益于当地农民的大力支持,他们不认同那种观点——如果奶牛能听到赛车的声音,就不肯产奶了。

“We’ve been greatly assisted, too, by local farmers, who do not subscribe to the view that dairy cows refuse to come across with the milk if they are within earshot of a racing car.

“很自然,J.C.C.(英国汽车俱乐部)对于战后首次在英国举办赛事感到无比兴奋。正如有人前几天说的,我们多少有些运气——有位主席在自己的后花园里就拥有一个机场;不过,生来运气好,总比每英镑要付 19 先令 6 便士来得强。”

“Naturally, in the J.C.C. we are more than pleased to be staging our first race meeting in England since the war. As someone said the other day, we are a little lucky in having a President with an airfield in his back garden, but it’s better to be born lucky than have to pay 19s. 6d. in the £.”

如今,古德伍德复兴节已成为一项独一无二的世界级赛车盛事。过去一年,我们也没少和官僚打交道,就像弗雷迪一样,有些时候想给你找个座位都费劲(办公室装修工程还在拖拖拉拉地进行着)。不过,假以时日,我们希望能打造出令所有人自豪的成果,并且,我们期待在诺曼德你也能看到一些相当精彩的比赛。

Today, the Goodwood Revival is a unique, world-class motor racing event. In the last year we have also spent our fair share of time with the bureaucrats and, like Freddie, at times we would have struggled to offer you a seat (the office fit-out rumbles on). But, in time, we aim to produce something we can all be proud of and, we expect that at Nomad you will also see some quite good racing.

合伙企业概况。

An Overview of the Partnership.

好的投资是一项小众运动,这意味着要想获得比他人更好的回报,我们就必须与大众逆向而行。而大众最缺乏的特质之一,就是耐心。我们的信函读者(应该是有的)可能对“股票收益率曲线”这个概念有所了解,我们的想法在几年前《杰出投资者文摘》(Outstanding Investor Digest)的一次采访中有所阐述(如需重印件,可向阿曼达索取)。(简而言之,股票收益率曲线是一个概念,它认为耐心具有价值,在股票市场中,回报会像普通债券市场收益率曲线那样随时间而增加)。在债券市场,较高的收益率是对本金无法偿还或通货膨胀导致本金贬值这一风险增加的补偿。但在股票市场,情况并非如此:我们认为,与短期相比,企业未来几年的经营成果反而更容易预测。例如,我们不知道今年市场最终会如何,但鉴于公司战略、资本配置和初始估值,我认为我们对旗下公司未来几年的演变方向有一定把握。换句话说(此时经济学专业的学生或许可以捂住耳朵),投资股票的回报既能随时间的推移而增加,又能降低风险。

Good investing is a minority sport, which means that in order to earn returns better than everyone else we need to be doing things different to the crowd. And one of the things the crowd is not, is patient. Readers of our letters (there must be some) may be familiar with the notion of the equity yield curve, and our thoughts were covered in an interview for the Outstanding Investor Digest (reprints available upon request, do ask Amanda) a few years ago. (In brief, the equity yield curve is a concept that argues that patience has a value, and that returns increase with time in the equity market as they do on a normal bond market yield curve). In the bond market the higher yield is there to compensate for the increase in risk that the principal will not be repaid, or that the principal may be devalued by inflation. That is not how it works in the equity market: in our opinion business outcomes can be more predictable several years out than they are in the near term. For example, we have no idea where the market will end this year but given corporate strategies, capital allocation and starting valuations, I think we have some idea of how our companies will evolve over the next few years. In other words (at this point economics students may wish to cover their ears) the return from investing in shares can be both increased and de-risked by time.

学术界可能存在一个盲点:经济学研究的方法论压倒性地倾向于在短时间窗口内采集数据,仿佛原因和结果永远紧紧挨在一起。习惯的形成需要经年累月。我们不禁好奇,学者们会如何评价可口可乐长达一个世纪的广告投入,以及最终缔造出全球最具价值品牌这件事?

There may be a blind spot in academia as the overwhelming methodology for research in Economics has been to take observations over short time periods, as if cause and effect sit on top of each other. Habits can take years to form. What, we wonder, would academics have to say of Coke’s century long advertising program and the eventual establishment of the World’s most valuable brand?

让我们感到有趣的是,游牧民族基金的业绩按“年份”来看,确实呈现出一种股权收益率曲线的形态。拿当前的投资组合来说:持有超过四年的股票,年化收益率高于持有三到四年的;而持有三到四年的股票,年化收益率又高于持有两到三年的;以此类推,直到去年买入的股票——这些股票表现相当混杂,其中还包含了好几笔亏损!这些数字受到幸存者偏差的影响(没有计入 Conseco),但排除了那些我们卖出后仍然表现良好的股票(尤其是 Stagecoach,我们一卖掉它,股价就一路上涨!)。这些数字也包含了机会集偏差(2002 年可能比 2006 年更适合做新投资),但即便如此,这条曲线的陡峭程度(年化超过 1000 个基点)仍然令人乐观,因为它意味着耐心是有回报的。有意思的是,平均来看,按持仓规模加权,当前合伙企业中的投资组合刚满一年多一点。换句话说,游牧民族基金是一只年轻的组合,大约只走完了它正常寿命的五分之一。竞争如此激烈,我们在股权收益率曲线的短端几乎没什么优势——毕竟美国共同基金的平均持有期不到一年——因此,人们可能会预期当前的回报率平平无奇。然而,如果历史可以作为指引,随着投资组合逐渐成熟,它最好的年份或许还在前方。

It is interesting to us that Nomad’s performance by vintage bears evidence of the equity yield curve. Take the current portfolio: stocks held for over four years have superior annualized returns compared to those held for between three and four years, which have higher annualized returns compared to those held for two to three years and so on down to stocks purchased last year, which are a pretty mixed affair and contain several losses! The numbers are skewed by survivorship bias (no Conseco) but exclude stocks sold that have continued to do well (notably Stagecoach, which has risen ever since we sold it!). There is opportunity set bias in these numbers too (‘02 may be a better year for making new investments than ‘06) but even so, the steepness of the curve (over 1000 basis points per annum) is cause for optimism, as it implies patience is rewarded. It is with some interest that, on average and weighted by size of holding, the investments in the Partnership today are just over one year old. In other words, Nomad is a young portfolio, perhaps one fifth of the way through its normal life expectancy. The competition is so great that we have little advantage at the short end of the equity yield curve – after all the average holding period of US mutual funds is less than one year – and so one might expect current returns to be so-so. However, if the past is our guide and as the portfolio matures, its best years may yet lie ahead.

我们如何知道自己与大众的看法不同?从其他投资者通常持有我们合伙企业中股票的时间长度上,可以找到一些线索。如果把伯克希尔·哈撒韦(美国)、怡和集团(香港)和壹传媒(也是香港)排除在外(这些公司因股票流动性不足或投资者教育程度高而自成一体),那么其他投资者持有我们投资组合中股票的平均时间大约是二十周。而我们预期持有这些股票的时间大约是两百六十周!那么,这到底是怎么回事?在我们看来,大多数投资者把一家公司的会计产出(即报告中的财务数据)当作短期价格走势的指南,并据此在市场中博弈。正如游牧民族基金招股说明书投资目标部分所述,我们的目标是“以合适的价格、把(您的投资)托管给合适的人”。这就是投资的本质。扎克和我专注于一个更深层的现实:未来价值变动的输入因素。我们的同行在股权收益率曲线的短端交易,那里竞争最为激烈;而我们则在竞争最小的长端进行投资。我们对完全不同的刺激因素做出反应。

How do we know we are taking a different view to the crowd? A clue can be gleaned from the period that other investors typically hold the shares of the companies in the Partnership. If Berkshire Hathaway (US), Jardine Matheson (Hong Kong) and Next Media (also Hong Kong) are excluded (these firms are in a class of their own due to either stock illiquidity or investor education) then other investors hold stocks in our portfolio for on average twenty weeks. We expect to own shares for around two hundred and sixty weeks! So, what is going on? It seems to us that most investors look at the accounting outputs of a company (the reported financial data) as a guide to near term price movements and play the market accordingly. As stated in the investment objective section of the Nomad prospectus our goal is to “pass custody (of your investment) over at the right price and to the right people”. That’s what investing is. Zak and I concentrate on a deeper reality: the inputs to future value moves. Our peers are trading shares at the short end of the equity yield curve where the competition is the greatest, and we are investing at the long end where competition is the least. We respond to completely different stimuli.

以亚马逊目前面临的一场争议为例。去年,该公司报告的自由现金流刚刚超过 5 亿美元,实际上,过去几年一直维持在这一水平。重要的是,这 5 亿美元是在扣除所有增长性投资支出之后的结果,这些支出包括资本开支、研发、运费补贴、营销和广告,以及价格让利。该公司如今在这些项目上投资,是为了在未来发展业务,使得未来的自由现金流将远高于不投资时的水平。根据我们的估算,这些可自由支配的投资(超出维持业务所需的部分)大约还有 5 亿美元,这还不包括价格让利。这是我们对其可自由支配投资支出的主观评估,这意味着,管理层如果愿意,完全可以取消这些可自由支配的增长支出,转而每年向投资者返还约 8 亿美元的税后现金。一个能够在此基础上产生现金流的业务,其价值可能在 100 亿美元左右,加上亚马逊的其他资产,意味着股价大约在 26 美元左右。就像去年夏天出现的情况那样,当投资者以这样的价格来评估这家公司时,他们实际上是在对亚马逊管理层说:“你们的增长支出毫无价值,不如把自己变成一头现金牛!”对于一个收入年增长率超过 20% 的企业来说,这真是一种奇怪的表态。

Take for example the current controversy at Amazon.com. Last year the company reported free cash flow of just over U$500m, indeed it has been around this number for the last few years. What is important is that the U$500m is after all investment spending on growth initiatives such as capital spending, but also research and development, shipping subsidy, marketing and advertising and price givebacks. The firm has been investing in these items today to grow the business in the future so that free cash flow in years to come will be meaningfully greater than it would be otherwise. By our estimates these discretionary investments, over and above that required to maintain the business, are in the region of a further U$500m, excluding the price givebacks. This is our subjective assessment of the discretionary investment spend and implies that management could, if so inclined, cancel the discretionary growth spending and instead return around U$800m per annum to investors after taxes. An operation that was able to produce cash flow on such a basis might be worth U$10bn or so, and along with Amazon’s other assets would imply a share price of around U$26. In valuing the business at these prices, as occurred last summer, investors are saying to Amazon management “your growth spending has no value, you may as well turn yourself into a cash cow”! This is an odd statement to make for a business growing revenues in excess of twenty percent per annum.

我们应该如何看待价格让利?以下是亚马逊创始人杰夫·贝佐斯在去年年报中所说的:“正如我们的股东所知,我们已做出决定,随着效率和规模使我们能够做到这一点,我们将逐年持续并大幅降低产品价格。这是一个非常重要的决策范例,它无法通过基于数学的方式做出。事实上,当我们降价时,我们是在违背我们所能做的数学计算,因为数学总是告诉我们,明智的做法是涨价。我们拥有大量与价格弹性相关的数据。我们可以相当准确地预测,一定百分比的降价将导致一定百分比的销量增长。除了极少数例外情况,短期内的销量增长永远不足以弥补降价带来的损失。然而,我们对弹性的定量理解是短期的。我们可以估算降价在本周和本季度会带来什么影响。但我们无法用数字来估算持续降价会在五年或十年内对我们的业务产生什么效果。我们的判断是,通过降低价格,持续将效率提升和规模经济返还给客户,会创造一个良性循环,长期来看,这将带来数额大得多的自由现金流,从而使亚马逊变得更值钱。我们围绕免运费超级快递服务和亚马逊 Prime 会员服务也做出了类似的判断,这两项服务短期内成本高昂,但我们认为长期来看它们重要且有价值。”

How should we think about the price givebacks? Here is what Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder, had to say in last year’s annual report: “As our shareholders know, we have made a decision to continuously and significantly lower prices for customers year after year as our efficiency and scale make it possible. This is an example of a very important decision that cannot be made in a math-based way. In fact, when we lower prices, we go against the math that we can do, which always says that the smart move is to raise prices. We have significant data related to price elasticity. With fair accuracy, we can predict that a price reduction of a certain percentage will result in an increase in units sold of a certain percentage. With rare exceptions, the volume increase in the short-term is never enough to pay for the price decease. However, our quantitative understanding of elasticity is short-term. We can estimate what a price reduction will do this week and this quarter. But we cannot numerically estimate the effect that consistently lowering prices will have on our business over five years or ten years. Our judgment is that relentlessly returning efficiency improvements and scale economies to customers in the form of lower prices creates a virtuous cycle that leads over the long-term to a much larger dollar amount of free cash flow, and thereby to a much more valuable Amazon.com. We have made similar judgments around Free Super Saver Shipping and Amazon Prime, both of which are expensive in the short term and – we believe – important and valuable in the long term.”

这其实就是我们之前在分析好市多时详细讨论过的规模效率共享模式(游牧民族基金致投资者信,2004 年 12 月,请向阿曼达索取重印件),如今主导游牧民族基金组合的公司都在运用这种模式:好市多、戴尔、亚马逊和伯克希尔(GEICO、内布拉斯加家具城)。争议就藏在开头的四个字“正如我们的股东所知”里——从成交量来看,他们并不知道!而这正是机会所在。如果股价是由那些关注下一个数据点的人设定的,那么他们就不可能同时着眼于长期价值。很少有交易者不同意贝佐斯的价值创造过程,但他们认为这不会立即在数字中体现出来。如果你只持股一两个月,那么在亚马逊的成功变得显而易见之前,你可能已经完成了好几笔交易。简而言之,交易者有许多小想法,而我们只有一个大想法。祝他们好运。在滚滚巨轮前面捡钢镚儿,不是我们的行事风格。

This is a précis of the scale efficiencies shared model that we dealt with in some detail in our analysis of Costco (Nomad Letter to Investors, December 2004, please ask Amanda for reprints) and is deployed by companies which have now come to dominate Nomad: Costco, Dell, Amazon and Berkshire (Geico, Nebraska Furniture Mart). The controversy is in the first four words “As our shareholders know”, judging by the share volumes - they don’t! And that’s the opportunity. If the share price is being set by those with an eye on the next data point, then they can’t also be looking out for long-term value. There are few traders that disagree with Bezos’ value creation process, but they don’t think it will show up in the numbers just yet. And if you only own shares for a month or two then you may get away with several trades before Amazon’s success becomes apparent. In short, the traders have many small ideas, and we have one big idea. Good luck to them. Picking up pennies in front of a juggernaut is just not how we behave.

另请注意,今年通过价格让利与客户共享规模效益、从而降低自由现金流这一决策,是基于对未来回报及其时点的主观判断。这不是一个严格基于数学的等式,并且不能保证投资支出总能奏效。贝佐斯再次说道:“基于数学的决策能赢得广泛共识,而基于判断的决策则理应有争议并且常常备受争议,至少在被付诸实践并证明其正确性之前是如此。任何不愿意忍受争议的机构,都必须把自己限制在前一类决策上。在我们看来,这样做不仅会限制争议——还会显著限制创新和长期价值创造。”阿门。

Notice also that the decision to lower free cash flow this year through sharing scale benefits with customers through price givebacks is based on a subjective judgment of future returns and their timing. It is not a strictly maths based equation and there is no guarantee that investment spending will always work. Bezos again: “Math-based decisions command wide agreement, whereas judgment-based decisions are rightly debated and often controversial, at least until put into practice and demonstrated. Any institution unwilling to endure controversy must limit itself to decisions of the first type. In our view, doing so would not only limit controversy – it would also significantly limit innovation and long-term value creation”. Amen.

我认为贝佐斯会管理好一家投资基金:但关键在于,好的投资和好的商业决策是相通的。贝佐斯先生无法控制回报实现的时间点,就像我们无法控制游牧民族基金业绩的时点一样,但根据我们的判断,亚马逊护城河的不断拓宽,在很大程度上决定了我们的投资能否成功。我们现在必须有耐心等待。

I think Bezos would run a good investment fund: but that is the point, good investing and good business decisions are synonymous. Mr. Bezos does not control the timing of the payback, just as we do not control the timing of Nomad’s performance but, in our judgment, the ever widening of the moat surrounding Amazon largely determines whether our investment will be a success. We must now have the patience to wait.

如今,游牧民族基金接近满仓,且持仓高度集中:最大的五只持仓占据了投资组合的一半,前十大约占四分之三。其余大约二十只持仓构成了一条尾部,其中包括一些一篮子投资(如津巴布韦股票)、几项困境反转投资,以及早期买入的一些杂七杂八的股票。这种投资组合的两极分化——一边是几个规模庞大、简单明了、确定性高的重仓股,另一边是更复杂、不确定性更高(但潜在上行空间可能更大)的尾部仓位——可能在一段时间内成为游牧民族基金的一个特征。值得注意的是,持仓高度集中于美国股票,这也是去年相对业绩的一个贡献因素;同时,我们也有一些有趣的英国投资,在这些投资中我们可能对公司的战略发展有一定影响力。整个合伙企业的价格与价值比,从去年十月份的 60 美分出头,升至现在的 60 多美分。

Today Nomad is close to fully invested and notably concentrated: the five largest holdings account for half the portfolio and the top ten around three quarters. The tail of around twenty other holdings includes baskets (such as Zimbabwe), several distressed turnarounds and rats and mice from the early days. The polarity of the portfolio, with several large, simple, high conviction holdings, and a tail of more complicated and less certain ideas (but which may have more upside) is likely to be a feature of Nomad for some time. There is a notable concentration in US stocks, a factor that also contributed to relative performance last year, while there are some interesting UK investments where we may have some influence on corporate development. The price to value ratio of the Partnership as a whole is in the upper 60 cents on the dollar, having risen from the low 60s in October.

为什么问题得不到解决?因为它们跨学科。尽管扎克和我对游牧民族基金股价在 2001 年至 2004 年间翻倍感到欣喜,但如果过去两年的回报被回吐,那这一切都将毫无意义。事实上,我们得以将投资组合重新配置到新的机会中,基金也持续上涨。过去几年里,有一些基金通过投资特定国家(如俄罗斯、印度、埃及等)或特定行业(如黄金、石油、基础材料),创造了与我们相似的业绩记录。持有上述领域投资的投资者应当意识到,如果其所在领域的牛市开始衰退,那么那些范围更窄的基金将很难维持其业绩。

Why do Problems go Unsolved? Because they Fall Across Disciplines Whilst Zak and I are delighted at the doubling of the value of Nomad shares between 2001 and 2004, this would be for nothing if returns had been given back in the last two years. As it is, we have been able to reinvest the portfolio in new opportunities and the fund has continued its rise. There are several funds that, over the last few years, have created a similar track record to ours by investing in specific countries (Russia, India, Egypt etc.) or sectors (gold, oil, basic materials). Investors with holdings in the fields listed above should be aware that more narrowly focused funds will find it hard to maintain their performance if the bull market in their fields starts to fail.

我们想说的是,正因为如此多的基金经理受到其投资授权范围的限制,那些不受约束的基金经理应该能够获得超额回报。千禧年之交的科技基金经理,即使他想投资 Stagecoach(一家巴士运营商),也无法做到。出于这个原因,在我们看来,私募股权市场的繁荣背后,不仅仅是低利率这一因素。

What we are saying is that because so many fund managers are constrained by their mandates excess returns ought to exist for the unconstrained. The turn-of-the- millennia technology fund manager could not invest in Stagecoach (a bus operator) even if he had wanted to. For this reason, it seems to us that there is more to the private equity boom than just low interest rates.

在一个传统基金管理按地域、行业、投资风格(价值、成长、GARP、动量)、跟踪误差、贝塔系数、上市或非上市状态(后面的人别睡着了)、股权或债权、破产或偿债能力等特征被严格分割的世界里,拥有更广泛权限的基金——比如私募股权基金,以及诺玛德合伙公司——确实应该比受约束的现有参与者更有优势。伍迪·艾伦曾打趣说,双性恋会让周六晚上约到人的机会翻倍;奇怪的是,这一原则也适用于投资。

In a world where traditional fund management is compartmentalised by attributes such as geography, sectors, investment styles (value, growth, garp, momentum), tracking errors, beta, listed or unlisted status, (stay awake at the back) equity or debt, bankruptcy or solvency then those with broader powers, such as private equity, and indeed Nomad, should have an advantage over constrained incumbents. Woody Allen once quipped that being bi- sexual doubled the chances of a date on Saturday night, curiously that principle also applies to investing.

基于规则的系统总是助长社会性的不思考,但对受约束基金的投资者来说,风险来源与其说是这些投资授权本身,不如说是运营这些基金的不思考者们的态度。以下摘自 2003 年 12 月致诺玛德股东的信,概述了我们的观点:“维他麦的收购要约只是英国众多廉价中小型公司私有化案例中的一个。机构股东抛弃了这些公司,转而追捧超级大盘股,结果股东基础被一两个内部利益集团和一群小股东主导。我们的观点是,股票在市场上的折价是一项资产,可以通过回购为所有股东的利益而收获。但人性如此,内部人会被低估值吸引,为自己买下这些股票。安排协议是一种最无情的方式,将一个党派的意志强加给分散且非专业的股东基础;再加上不可撤销的承诺,收购要约就能以既成事实的姿态呈现给股东。请注意:坏行为会传染。尽管如此,英国几乎天天都有私有化提案,却几乎听不到股东、当局或媒体的批评。在资本主义的任何其他领域,你的财产都不能被以几美分兑一美元的价格掠夺(除非出于国家利益的强制收购)。然而,那些私下里如果有人出价低于自己房屋价值就会感到受辱的基金经理,在职业身份下却高高兴兴地把股票以折价卖给聪明买家,没有一个人喊犯规。”

Rules based systems always contribute to societal non-thinking, but it’s not the mandates so much that are the source of risk to investors in constrained funds. It’s the attitude of the non-thinkers running the funds that is so destructive. The following excerpt taken from the December 2003 Nomad Letter to Shareholders summarizes our views: “The Weetabix offer is only one of many privatisations of cheap, small and mid capitalisation businesses in the UK. Institutional shareholders have abandoned these firms in favor of mega-caps, and the shareholder base is left dominated by one or two inside interests and a tail of small holders. Our view is that the discount that the shares trade at in the market is an asset to be harvested for the benefit of all shareholders through share repurchase. But human nature being as it is, insiders will be incented by the low valuation to buy the shares for themselves. A Scheme of Arrangement is the most ruthless method of asserting one party’s will over a fragmented and non-professional shareholder base and coupled with irrevocable acceptances allows takeover offers to be presented as a fait accompli to shareholders. Please note: bad practice spreads. Despite this, and the almost daily occurrence of privatization proposals in the UK, there has been almost no criticism by shareholders, the authorities or in the media. In no other sphere of capitalism can your property be seized in exchange for cents on the dollar (except compulsory purchase on the grounds of national interest). But fund managers, who in their private capacity would be insulted if someone offered less than their house was worth, happily sell shares in their professional capacity at discounted prices to smart buyers. And no one cries foul.”

基金经理们明白发生了什么。他们都是聪明、高薪的个人,本可以更积极地捍卫客户利益。例如,他们可以持有目标公司更多的股份来阻止收购。或者,如果投资授权只允许投资上市股权,为什么不向客户说明情况,并寻求改变基金规则,允许持有非上市股权?但毫无声响。很多基金经理宁愿现在以微小的收购溢价卖掉你的股票(并向新投资者推销他们的短期业绩),而对被出售业务未来几年价值翻倍的事实视而不见。这是一种丑闻。

The fund managers understand what is going on. These are intelligent, highly paid individuals who could defend their clients’ interests much more vigorously. They could, for example, own much more of the target company and block the bid. Or, if mandate constrained to only invest in listed equity, why not explain the situation to their clients and seek to change the rules of their funds to allow ownership of, say, unlisted equity? But not a squeak. Many fund managers would rather sell your shares for a small takeover premium now (and market their short-term performance to new investors) whilst turning a blind eye to the doubling in the value of the sold business over the next few years. It’s a scandal.

再来看 2003 年 12 月的信:“虽然我们在维他麦的投资获利,但股东们应当谨慎许愿。在祝贺之前,合伙人需要权衡短期利润与被折价收购价所放弃的价值,以及掠夺成功可能激励未来更多类似行为所带来的影响。”

The December 2003 letter again, “Whilst we have a profit on our investment in Weetabix, shareholders should be careful what they wish for. Before congratulations are in order, Partners need to weigh in their minds short-term profits against value forgone in the discounted offer price and the incentive provided by the success of seizure for potentially more of the same in the future.”

看看现在市场上发生的事情:2006 年是私募股权基金的创纪录年份。由于收购要约通常来自与管理层合资运营的私募股权基金,在我们看来,最好的理解是,这是内幕交易,只不过利用了收购规则作为批量购买工具。在英国(以及一些前殖民地),如果异议者(即不愿出售的人)持有公司超过 10% 的股份,他们就不能被强制收购,这为保护公司钱包提供了一定保障。但其他许多国家的情况要糟糕得多——例如,在美国,对强制收购没有普遍的保障!回到 2003 年 12 月的信:“那么,该怎么办?最好的防御是拥有足够多的公司股份以影响结果。在大多数情况下(在英国),持有超过 10% 的流通股就足够了。那些将投资流动性置于其他考量之上的人,不妨记住:投资者在持有公司微不足道的比例时,无法影响结果。如果诺玛德的规模继续增长,我们打算不犯这个错误。”

Just look at what is happening in the markets now: 2006 was a record year for private equity funds. As the bids often come from the private equity fund operating in joint venture with management then, in our opinion, they are best understood as insider trading with the takeover rules being used as a bulk purchasing facility. In the UK (and some former colonies) there is some protection against corporate wallet lifting as dissenters (those wishing not to sell) cannot be compulsory acquired if they own more than 10% of a company. The situation is far worse in many other countries – for example in the United States there is no universal protection against compulsory purchase! Back to the December ’03 letter: “So, what is to be done? The best defense is to own enough of the company to influence the outcome. In most cases [in the UK] in excess of 10% of the shares outstanding would suffice. Those that advocate market liquidity of their investments over other considerations might like to bear in mind an investor’s inability to influence outcomes whilst owning a de-minimus proportion of a company. Should Nomad continue to grow in size, we intend not to make this mistake.”

为此,诺玛德现在是 Games Workshop 公司最大的股东,也是 Jarvis 公司的重要股东,并且是 Whitehead Mann 公司异议股东群体的一部分。

To this end Nomad is now the largest shareholder in Games Workshop Plc., a significant shareholder in Jarvis Plc., and part of the dissenting group at Whitehead Mann Plc.

Whitehead Mann 作为富时 100 指数首席执行官的最大猎头公司,地位相当稳固,并利用这一周期性收入流来收购几家竞争对手(通常内部人借此套现!)。随着收入下降,利息负担压垮了不断减少的现金流,股价从 4 英镑的峰值跌至我们两年前首次与管理层会面时的约 50 便士。当时,该公司正通过一项旨在避免破产的配股和定向增发寻求更多资本。我们觉得奇怪的是,内部人并没有和股东一起买入公司股票,因此我们拒绝参与,并告诉董事总经理:“等你们看涨了,我们再看涨。”即便如此,资本还是从其他投资者那里以每股 40 便士的价格筹集到了,我们则袖手旁观。然后去年,公司宣布管理层与一家私募股权基金一起,提出以每股 42 便士收购整个公司,并且已经从股东那里获得了购买约 70% 流通股的不可撤销承诺。换句话说,拯救了公司的投资者,只被回报以每股 2 便士(5%)的利润!而选择不参与那场避免破产的定向增发的内部人,现在却想(通过批量购买工具)尽可能多地买入,于是我们也做了一笔投资。如今,我们是异议股东群体的一部分,持有约 19% 的股份,足以避免被强制收购。由于我们将继续持有这些非上市股份,在缺乏更多信息的情况下,我们提议,这些股份在诺玛德的估值采用收购价(42 便士)加上(或减去)留存收益。我们期待看到管理层能为我们做些什么,既然他们现在有了(杠杆化的)利益捆绑。

Whitehead Mann has a reasonably entrenched position as the largest headhunter to FTSE 100 CEOs and used this cyclical revenue stream to fund the acquisition of several competitors (often with insiders cashing out!). As revenues declined the interest burden overwhelmed failing cash flow and the share price declined from a peak of £4 to around 50p when we first went to meet management two years ago. At the time the firm was seeking more capital in the form of a bankruptcy avoiding rights issue and placing. It seemed odd to us that the insiders were not buying shares in the firm along with their shareholders and so we declined to participate, “we’ll be bullish when you are bullish” we told the MD. Even so, capital was raised at 40p per share from other investors and we sat and watched from the sidelines. Then last year the company announced that management, along with a private equity fund, were offering 42p to buy the whole company and had secured irrevocable undertakings from shareholders to purchase around seventy percent of the shares outstanding. In other words, having saved the company investors were being offered a return of 2p (five percent) for their trouble! And insiders, who had chosen not to invest in the bankruptcy-avoiding placing, now wished to buy as much as they could (via the bulk purchasing facility) and so we also made an investment. Today we are part of a dissenting shareholder group that own around 19% of the shares, enough not to be compulsory acquired. As we will continue to own our unlisted shares we propose, in the absence of more information, that the shares be valued in Nomad at the takeover price (42p) plus (or minus) retained earnings. We look forward to seeing what management can do for us, now they have (leveraged) skin in the game.

一些内务事项。这封信的附录中附有一份年末投资明细表(请藏在床垫下)以及去年我们寄给合伙人的两封信,一封概述了我们的运营理念,另一封说明了业绩和管理费的计算方法。这些都是重要的信件,现重印于此供您参考。

Some Housekeeping Contained in the appendix of this letter is a copy of the schedule of investments at year-end (please hide under your mattress) and the two letters we sent to Partners last year, one that outlines the philosophy of our operation and the second the methodology of the performance and management fees. These are important letters and are reprinted here for your reference.

有关业绩和估值的查询,您的第一站应是爱尔兰都柏林凤凰金融服务公司的加文·格雷及其团队。他们的电话是 +353 1 845 8161,请致电他们!加文是少数敢于迎接我们非标准成本报销管理费和可赎回业绩费挑战的管理人之一。当其他管理人想把诺玛德塞进现成的模子时,凤凰金融服务公司却用同样的费用为我们管理定制化安排。随着时间的推移,这将为合伙人节省大量费用。我们发现加文和他的团队聪明且乐于助人,很高兴能与他们合作。阿曼达·乔斯(电话:+44 20 7101 1960,邮箱:[email protected])可以帮忙提供文献、重印件和日记,办公室地址可在我们略带乡土气息的网站(www.sleepzakaria.co.uk)上找到。一些朋友在看了我们的网站后——他们的技术品位可能比我们更高——问道:“这就是你想要的效果?”是的!我们会把网络技术秀留给亚马逊。

Your first port of call with enquiries as to performance and valuations should go to Gavin Gray and his team at Phoenix Financial Services in Dublin, Ireland. They can be reached at +353 1 845 8161, do call them! Gavin was one of the few administrators prepared to rise to the challenge of our non-standard cost-reimbursement management fee and redeemable performance fee. Whilst other administrators wished to shoe-horn Nomad into an existing cookie cutter, for the same money Phoenix will administrate our bespoke arrangement. Over time that will prove to be a considerable saving in fees paid by Partners. We have found Gavin and his team to be intelligent and helpful and we are glad to have them along. Amanda Joss (+44 20 7101 1960 and [email protected]) can help with literature, reprints and diaries, and directions to the office can be found on our, somewhat homespun, web site (www.sleepzakaria.co.uk). On viewing our web site some friends, perhaps with higher technical aspirations than ourselves, asked: “is that what you want?” It is! We will leave the web-pyrotechnics to Amazon.

我们写这些信,希望能向你们提供所有关于诺玛德和我们自己的有用信息。这是我们如果站在你们的位置上想要知道的信息。我们避免更频繁的报告,这有“说点什么综合征”的风险,在最坏的情况下可能只是提供一种无意义的安慰毯。你们从我们这里获得的任何心理安全感,都应当是我们努力比大众更理性的产物。

We write these letters and hope to provide you all the useful-to-know information about Nomad and us. This is the information we would want to know if we were in your position. We shy away from more frequent reporting which risks say-something syndrome and at worst may provide a meaningless comfort blanket. Any psychological security you receive from us should be a product of our attempts to be more rational than the crowd.

投资组合感觉新鲜而年轻,并且健康地偏离了共识。许多持股是真正有个性且产品诚信的公司,这与几年前持有的股票形成鲜明对比。新想法正以不错的速率涌入管道,扎克和我得以自由地思考和研究,这是很久未能实现的状态。我们敏锐地意识到,尽管我们的记录可能是股价翻了三倍(扣业绩费前),但诺玛德每七位合伙人中就有一位,以及约 70% 的投资资金,是在 2006 年 9 月 30 日之后才加入的。自那以后,诺玛德上涨了约 10%,在我们做的事里,这几乎不值一提。我们认为,随着管理资金的增加,时钟实质上已被重置,这似乎是健康的,我们绝不躺在滚动的业绩数字上。在很多方面,这又回到了第一天。

The portfolio feels fresh and young and is healthily out of step with consensus. Many holdings are companies of real character and product integrity, in contrast to stocks held a few years ago. New ideas are coming into the hopper at a good rate and Zak and I are unrestrained to think and research in a way that has not been possible for some time. We are acutely aware that whilst our record may be the tripling in the share price (before performance fees), one in seven Partners and around seventy percent of the dollars invested in Nomad are new since September 30th 2006. Nomad is up around ten percent since then and, in the scheme of what we do, that is hardly worth the comment. It seems healthy to us to see the clock as substantially reset by the increase in funds under management, and in no way are we resting on our rolling performance numbers. In many respects it is day one all over again.

一如既往,运营合伙公司是绝对的乐事。我们感谢你们给予我们自主运营的机会,也感谢你们的耐心和信任。此致,尼古拉斯·斯利普敬上*斯利普·扎卡里亚公司自 2006 年 9 月 12 日起被任命为诺玛德投资合伙公司的投资顾问,接替自合伙公司成立以来一直担任投资顾问的马拉松资产管理公司。在 2006 年 9 月之前,尼古拉斯·斯利普和卡伊斯·扎卡里亚在受雇于马拉松资产管理公司期间,负责诺玛德的投资管理。合伙人应注意,从马拉松资产管理公司到斯利普·扎卡里亚公司的过渡性质本身就意味着,扎克和我现在没有我们过去使用的后台支持基础设施。

As ever, it is an absolute pleasure running the Partnership. We thank you for the opportunity to do so under our own steam and for your patience and confidence in us, Yours sincerely, Nicholas Sleep *Sleep, Zakaria and Company was appointed as investment advisor to the Nomad Investment Partnership with effect from September 12th 2006, replacing Marathon Asset Management who had been investment advisor to the Partnership since inception. Prior to September Nicholas Sleep and Qais Zakaria were responsible for the investment management of Nomad whilst employed by Marathon Asset Management. Partners should note that the very nature of the transition from Marathon to Sleep, Zakaria and Company means that Zak and I are not operating with the back office infrastructure we used to receive.

**在本信中,我们使用“合伙人”一词作为对所有诺玛德投资者的统称,无论他们是主基金中的股东还是合伙公司中的有限合伙人,而并非严格法律意义上暗示在主基金股东、诺玛德和/或斯利普·扎卡里亚有限公司之间建立了合伙关系。

**In this letter, we use the term "Partners" as a generic term referring to all Nomad investors, whether shareholders in the feeder fund or limited partners in the Partnership and not, in the strict, legal sense of the word, to imply the creation of a partnership between shareholders in the feeder fund, Nomad and/or Sleep, Zakaria and Company, Ltd.

附录 II 你可能已经知道,扎克和我最近离开马拉松,全职管理 Nomad 投资合伙公司。从某些方面看,这与之前的状态并没有太大变化,因为 Nomad 已经占据了我们的时间和心思。不过,有些东西将是新的,这封信的目的是阐述我们新运作的哲学。这能让你在我们于修订版招股说明书中阐述方法论之前,有时间思考这些变化的影响。招股说明书的变更需要你的投票,当然,在任何阶段,扎克和我都乐意回答你的任何问题,我们的联系方式在这封信的底部。

Appendix II As you may already know, Zak and I recently left Marathon to manage the Nomad Investment Partnership full time. In some respects, this does not represent much of a change from the status quo, as Nomad had come to dominate our time and thinking. However, some things will be new, and the purpose of this letter is to set out the philosophy of our new operations. This will give you time to think about their implications before we set out the methodology in a revised prospectus. The changes in the prospectus will require your vote, and of course, at any stage Zak and I will be free to answer any questions you may have and our contact details are at the bottom of this letter.

我和扎克在马拉松共同度过了十六年的快乐时光。这是一段极佳的学习经历,在许多重要方面,与杰瑞米共事塑造了今天的我们。我们至今关系密切,事实上上周还一起参加了伯克希尔·哈撒韦的股东大会。此次 Nomad 的分拆提议能采用友好、合乎常理的安排,或许正体现了马拉松典型的友谊和跳出框框、不随大流的思维方式。很少有机构能做得这么好。

Between us, Zak and I have spent sixteen happy years at Marathon. It was a superb education, and in many important respects working with Jeremy has made us the investors we are today. We all remain close and indeed attended the Berkshire Hathaway AGM together last week. It is perhaps indicative of the friendship and out- of-the-box, non-consensual thinking that is typical of Marathon that an amicable, common sense arrangement, such as the spin of Nomad, has been proposed. Few institutions would behave so well.

我和扎克只有在获得金融服务管理局(FSA)授权,可以经营受监管的基金管理公司之后,才能管理诺玛德。这一主要是行政流程的手续预计至少需要三个月,再加上我们雇佣合同的剩余期限(到 6 月 30 日截止),这意味着,最快我们也要到 7 月初才能开始运作诺玛德。在此期间,将由杰里米负责,并在适当时候与我和扎克保持联络。接下来两个月,我们会搭起一个规模相当小的办公室(看来“银河总部”很有可能设在伦敦西部一家店铺楼上,正对着中餐馆!),并配置必要的 IT、法律和会计系统。研究时间还是有的,杰里米也很客气地寄来了一大堆让人望而生畏的年报!所以,诺玛德在这期间会得到妥善照料。

Zak and I will only be in a position to manage Nomad once we have FSA authorisation to operate as a regulated fund management company. This largely administrative process is expected to take at least three months and along with the remaining duration of our employment contracts (until June 30th) means that, at soonest, we will be in a position to run Nomad from early July. In the meantime, Jeremy will be in charge and will liaise with Zak and me when appropriate. For the next two months we will be setting up a somewhat modest office (it appears that galactic headquarters is likely to be above a shop and opposite a Chinese restaurant in west London!), and configuring the necessary IT, legal and accounting systems. There will be time for research, and Jeremy has been kind enough to send on a formidable pile of annual reports! So, Nomad is being looked after in the meantime.

我们的新公司名为 Sleep, Zakaria and Company, Limited(名称挺顺口),将管理一只基金——游牧投资合伙基金。我希望二十年后这句话依然像今天一样正确——扎克和我没有涉足产品多元化的业务。实际上,我们并不真的把新公司看作通常意义上的企业:举例来说,我们已要求律师将协议架构设计成扎克和我不得把游牧基金卖给其他基金经理——这样你就不会在基金经理飞往夏威夷度假时,一觉醒来发现别人在管理你的钱!你可以炒掉我们,但我们不会把你卖掉。或许对我们拟定的费用结构的说明,能更清楚地表明我们的定位。

Our new company will be called Sleep, Zakaria and Company, Limited (catchy) and we will manage one fund, the Nomad Investment Partnership. I expect this statement to be as true in twenty-years’ time as it is today – Zak and I are not in the product diversification business. Indeed, we don’t really see the new company as a business in the usual way: for example, we have asked our lawyers to structure the arrangement so that Zak and I could not sell Nomad to another fund manager – that way you will not wake up with someone else managing your money whilst your manager catches a plane to Hawaii! You can sack us, but we won’t sell you. Perhaps an explanation of our proposed fee scale will make clear our orientation.

Nomad Investment Partnership 目前每年收取 10 个基点的管理费,这个费率很大程度上依赖马拉松公司已有的基础设施,不足以支撑一家独立运营的公司。因此我们希望提出一个新的管理费方案,用于补偿运营公司(Sleep, Zakaria and Company, Limited)在运营过程中产生的成本(薪资、租金、会计、研究、法律等)。按目前规模估算,这部分费用每年大约占合伙基金总资产的 0.7% 到 1%,我们将报销上限设定为净资产的 1%,如有不足我们自掏腰包补上。从理念上讲,我们的立场是管理费不应当成为利润中心(虽然保留少量浮盈盈余算是一种审慎做法)。这并非一张空白支票:扎克和我为了运营 Nomad 会接受降薪,我们俩的总薪酬会降到让人怀疑我们是否理智的程度,但正如我所说,这不是一门传统生意。随着合伙基金规模扩大,管理费占资产的比例会逐步下降,这样一来,所有投资者都能分享到运营中自然产生的规模经济效应。

The Nomad Investment Partnership currently charges a management fee of 10 basis points per annum, a levy which leans somewhat on the in-place infrastructure at Marathon and which is insufficient to sustain a stand-alone operation. We would therefore like to propose a new management fee that will reimburse the operating company (Sleep, Zakaria and Company, Limited) for its costs incurred in running the operation (salary, rent, accounting, research, legal etc.). We guestimate this will be between 0.7% and 1% of the Partnership per annum at its current size, and we will cap the reimbursement at 1% of NAV and fund any deficit out of pocket if need be. Philosophically our position is that the management fee should not be a profits centre (although a small surplus float is prudent). This is not a blank cheque: Zak and I will take a salary cut to run Nomad, and a total remuneration cut that questions our sanity, but as I have said, this is not a traditional business. As the Partnership grows in size the management fee will decline as a percentage of assets and, that way, all investors share in the natural scale economics of the operation.

业绩费也需要讨论,因为存在一个矛盾:投资者着眼于多年投资、多年期导向,而经理人却每年领取报酬!业绩费应当根据工作表现合理计算,要为后续的糟糕表现承担风险,并反映资金成本。因此,我们将提议保留现有 6% 的资金成本门槛(大致相当于五年期债券利率),并将业绩费递延支付,如果后续表现不佳,还需偿还。实现这一目标有几种方式,最简单的一种可能是:将业绩费存入银行,如果业绩保持合理,银行就向我们分期支付费用;反之,如果我们未能维持优势,银行就向你们分期退款。我们优势受损的一种情况是,规模成为业绩的明显拖累,正如我在上一封致投资者信中所说:“未来二十年,我们扩大和收缩规模的能力将是一项重要工具。我保证这一点……”。我们的意图是“巴士始终全速行驶,乘客数量优化到能保持最高速度”,因此,如果我们发现投资机会很少,我们也将有权向你们返还现金。我不期望我们会频繁向你们返还现金,如果能完全不返还,我会很高兴,但出发时没有这种能力似乎很愚蠢。同样,招股说明书会详细说明。

The performance fee also needs addressing, as there is an inconsistency between multi-year investments, multi-year orientation by investors and an annual payout for the manager! The performance fee should be appropriately calculated for the job, be at risk for subsequent poor performance and reflect the cost of capital. We will therefore propose that the existing six percent cost of capital hurdle remain (approximating five-year bond rates) and that the performance fee be deferred and subject to repayment in the event of subsequent underperformance. There are several ways this could be achieved, the easiest of which may be to bank the performance fees, and for the bank to drip fees to us if performance remains reasonable, or drip reimbursements back to you to the extent we fail to maintain our advantage. One way our advantage may be compromised is if size becomes a meaningful drag on performance, as I said in the last letter to investors “our ability to expand and shrink will be an important tool sometime in the next twenty years. I guarantee it...”. Our intention is that “the bus is always running at full speed with the number of passengers optimised to maintain maximum speed”, and so we will also take powers to return cash to you should we find the opportunity set is small. I don’t expect that we will return cash to you that much, and I would be delighted if we did not at all, but it seems silly to set off without the ability to do so. Again, the prospectus will elaborate.

投资理念和方法将保持不变。唯一的变化是,扎克和我将把全部时间投入 Nomad,而不是原来的不足百分之百;同时,我们本人百分之百的个人投资也将投入 Nomad,而非过去的不足百分之百。除此之外,一切照旧,我们的基金管理人(位于爱尔兰的大和证券信托银行)和审计师(安永)都不会有任何变动。

The investment philosophy and methodology will be unchanged. All that changes is that Zak and I will be dedicating one hundred percent of our time to Nomad, rather than something less than one hundred percent, and that one hundred percent of our personal investments will be in Nomad, rather than something less than one hundred percent. Otherwise, it is business as usual and there will be no change in our fund administrator (Daiwa Securities Trust and Banking in Ireland) or auditor (Ernst and Young).

扎克和我很高兴,马拉松公司允许我们继续管理 Nomad;这是他们慷慨的举动。我们为在 Nomad(以及在马拉松)取得的成就感到自豪,但无论马拉松的举动多么高尚,如果没有你们的支持,这都将毫无意义。对我们来说,保留现有投资者一直比获取新投资者更重要,这次过渡只有在你们的认可下才算成功。所以,我鼓励你们仔细阅读 1 月份寄给你们的《致合伙人信札汇编》(阿曼达·乔斯 [email protected] 可以帮你们提供复印本),以及你们很快会收到的招股说明书。如果有任何不清楚的地方,扎克和我随时等待你们的电话。你们也可以联系卡尔·麦克内夫或马丁·伯恩,他们是 Nomad 投资公司与马拉松(开曼)公司的独立董事,后者是 Nomad 投资合伙企业的普通合伙人。卡尔和马丁是出色的顾问,他们会把你们的利益放在心上。

Zak and I are delighted that Marathon has allowed us to continue running Nomad; it is a generous gesture on their part. We are proud of what we have achieved at Nomad (as well as at Marathon) but no matter how noble Marathon’s gesture is, it will mean nothing if it is not endorsed by you. Keeping existing investors has always been more important to us than acquiring new, and this transition will only be a success if you make it so. So, I encourage you to read through the Collection of Letter to Partners sent to you in January (Amanda Joss [email protected] can help you with reprints) and the prospectus you will receive shortly. And if anything is unclear then Zak and I await your call. You may also wish to contact Karl McEneff or Martin Byrne who are the independent directors of the Nomad Investment Company and Marathon (Cayman), which is the General Partner of the Nomad Investment Partnership. Karl and Martin are superb council and have your best interests at heart.

扎克和我对新安排非常满意,希望你们也是。

Zak and I are skipping happy about the new arrangements. We hope you will be too.

你们忠实的 尼古拉斯·斯利普

附录三

自从尼克上次在七月给你写信以来,他和我一直在忙着做大量零碎工作,好让我们能够把拟对诺玛德费用安排和结构所做的调整呈现在你面前——现在,其管理权将移交给我们的公司 Sleep, Zakaria & Co. Ltd(简称 SZ & Co)。这些调整将成为诺玛德投资合伙企业(NIP)新合伙协议的一部分,我们的计划是,在 9 月 12 日从马拉松公司接管后,将这些调整提交给 NIP 的合伙人,寻求他们的批准。当然,最大的合伙人是诺玛德投资公司(NIC)本身,这就是为什么 NIC 的董事会正在给你写信,请求你授权他们投票支持 NIP 合伙协议的修改。投资界弥漫着一种疯狂,而这场疯狂的一部分就是:他们并不需要征求你的投票!但我们所有人(尼克和我,以及你公司的两位独立董事马丁·伯恩和卡尔·麦克内夫)都觉得,让你的意见得到重视是完全合适的。毕竟,我们提议改变的是你和我们之间的合同,也就是我们受托投资你资金的基础。尼克、马丁、卡尔和我都很乐意并且随时准备解答你的任何问题。

Yours faithfully Nicholas Sleep Appendix III Since Nick last wrote to you in July, he and I have been busy dotting countless i’s and crossing innumerable t’s allowing us to place before you the changes we would like to make to Nomad’s fee arrangements and structure now that its management is to be transferred to our company, Sleep, Zakaria & Co. Ltd (SZ & Co). The changes will become part of the Nomad Investment Partnership’s (NIP) new partnership agreement and it is our intention, following the handover from Marathon on the 12th of September, to put these changes before the NIP partners seeking their approval. The largest partner is, of course, the Nomad Investment Company (NIC) itself and that’s why the board of NIC are writing to you to seek your authorisation to vote in favour of the changes to the NIP partnership agreement. It is part and parcel of the madness that permeates the investment world that there is no requirement that they seek your vote! But we all (Nick and I, as well as Martin Byrne and Karl McEneff, your company’s two independent directors) feel it entirely appropriate that your views count. After all, we are proposing to change the contract you have with us, the basis on which we are entrusted to invest your money. Nick, Martin, Karl and I are happy and available to field any questions you have.

变革

首先,为什么要进行这些变革,以及为什么是现在?游牧者基金将于 9 月 12 日从马拉松资产管理公司旗下转至我们公司旗下,这让我和尼克能够自由地将我们的理念付诸实践,即尽可能在委托人与代理人之间减少冲突。这说起来容易做起来难。令人不安的是,这种冲突在投资管理领域已变得多么无孔不入(杰克·博格尔的学生无需提醒也会知道这一点),而正如你所料,金钱是这一特定罪恶的根源。因此,尼克和我的“首要任务”是建立一个公平的收费结构,以反映我们的愿望:合作伙伴(委托人)以及尼克和我(代理人)在二十年后还能坐在桌子的两边,双方都感到这种关系是对称且公平的。显然,这种对称形式与目前对冲基金等机构视为收费结构常态的做法毫无关系。这对我们来说没问题,我们也不希望有其他任何方式。

The Changes First, why make these changes and why now? Nomad will move from under the wings of Marathon to our company on the 12th of September, allowing Nick and I the freedom to put into practice our philosophy to minimise wherever possible the conflict between principal and agent. This is easier said than done. It’s disconcerting how invasive the conflict has become in the field of investment management (students of Jack Bogle will not need reminding) and, as you might expect, money lies at the root of this particular evil. So “job one” for Nick and I is to establish an equitable fee structure which reflects our wish that partners (the principals) and Nick and I (the agents) can sit across a table in twenty years with both sides feeling the relationship has been symmetrical and fair. Plainly, this symmetrical form bears no relation to what is now considered the fee structure norm amongst hedge funds and the like. That’s fine by us, we wouldn’t have it any other way.

下面我用例子来解释这些变化……首先是管理费。目前按每年固定收取 10 个基点(主要依赖马拉松的基础设施),这笔费用连一家独立公司(比如 SZ & Co)的基本运营成本都覆盖不了,因此必须调整。问题是,提高固定费率是否公平?答案显然是不公平。一个公平的方案是:管理费既不让 SZ & Co 盈利,又能将规模经济直接转化为投资业绩的提升。具体做法是改用阶梯费率,上限为 1%,在收回 SZ & Co 运营成本的同时,管理费占资产的比例随合伙基金规模扩大而递减。下表可以说明:

合伙基金资产SZ & Co 运营成本管理费占资产比例
5000 万美元150 万美元1%
1.5 亿美元150 万美元1%
2.5 亿美元150 万美元0.6%
5 亿美元150 万美元0.3%
5 亿美元200 万美元0.4%

简单的部分说完了……接下来是业绩报酬。目前合伙基金的业绩报酬是这样计算的:如果自认购以来的复利业绩超过每年 6% 的门槛(这是我们用来替代长期存款利率的指标),投资管理人就能获得该年度全部投资收益的五分之一(即 20%)。虽然相比行业标准费率结构——那种根本不对投资者资本做任何成本核算的做法——已经有了巨大改进,但其中的缺陷显而易见。我们反复强调,Nomad 只适合投资期限超过五年(与我们平均持股期相匹配)的合伙人。然而与此同时,管理人的报酬却是按年收取,这显然是奖酬期限上的错配。那么业绩差的时期又如何处理呢?到目前为止,Nomad 采用的是行业标准的“高水位线”机制,这仅仅避免了投资者为同一段业绩被重复收费……但这种“赢了归我,输了不赔”的架构,在我们看来显然是不公平的。但市场上能改善这一点的方案实在少之又少。

Let me explain the changes by way of example… First, the management fee. Currently, a simple, flat rate of 10 basis points per annum (leaning heavily on Marathon’s infrastructure), this fails to pay the basic running costs of a stand-alone firm such as SZ & Co and needs to change. The question is, is a higher flat rate equitable? The answer here is plainly, no. An equitable solution is a management fee that doesn’t generate a profit for SZ & Co while at the same time accreting economies of scale directly to investment performance. This is achieved by moving to a variable fee, capped at 1%, which re-coups SZ & Co’s running costs while management fees, as a percentage of assets, decline as the partnership grows in size. The table below should illustrate… Partnership assets SZ’s running costs Management fees as a % of assets US$50m US$1.5m 1% US$150m US$1.5m 1% US$250m US$1.5m 0.6% US$500m US$1.5m 0.3% US$500m US$2.0m 0.4% That’s the simple part over… now to the performance fee. Currently the partnership pays a performance fee to the investment manager if compounded performance, since subscription, exceeds a 6% per annum hurdle, our proxy for long term deposit rates. The fee earned is one fifth (or 20%) of all investment gains in such a year. Although a huge improvement on the industry standard fee structure that fails to assign any cost to investors’ capital, the flaw here is easy to spot. We take a great deal of care stressing that Nomad is an investment only suitable for partners with timeframes in excess of five years, matching our average stock holding period. At the same time, your manager is taking an annual fee, a clear mismatch in the duration of rewards. And what of periods of poor performance? Up to now Nomad has adopted the industry standard “high water mark”, which solely avoids double charging investors for the same performance… this, heads-I-win, tails-I-don’t-lose construct is, to our mind, clearly inequitable. But there’s little out there that improves on this.

我们对这个难题的解决方案(特别感谢百慕大奥比斯基金的朋友们,他们在这条路上先行探索),借鉴了类似希思-罗宾逊式的创新,我们称之为“业绩费桶”,或者,我们的律师更文雅地称其为“或有业绩储备金”(CPR)。我们的提议是:每年对超过 6% (扣除管理费后)的投资收益,提取 20% 的或有业绩费。与以往不同,这不是自认购以来按 6% 复利计算,而是每年更严格的 6% 门槛。更重要的是,这笔费用并非在年底直接支付给 SZ 公司,而是存入一个名为 CPR 的储备账户,该账户的滚动余额可用于在后续年份中,当业绩低于 6% 门槛时,向合伙人退款。所以,如果表现不佳,我们理应承担损失。概括来说,这个桶会随着我们的投资业绩超过或低于 6% 的年化门槛而注满或清空。因此,如果尼克和我投资做得不错,随着时间的推移,流入 CPR 的资金将超过用于退款的流出,从而产生正余额。

Our solution to this quandary (our special thanks to our friends at Orbis in Bermuda who have trail-blazed this path) involves some Heath-Robertson-like innovation, something we like to call a performance fee bucket or, what our lawyers more elegantly term, a “Contingent Performance Reserve” (CPR). What we propose is that each year a 20% contingent performance fee is charged on investment gains in excess of 6% (after the management fee) achieved in that year. Unlike previously, that’s not 6% compounded since subscription, it’s a more demanding 6% bogie each year. And, more importantly, this fee is not paid directly to SZ & Co at the year end. Instead, it is paid into a reserve account, the CPR, the running balance of which is available to refund to partners in subsequent years when performance falls short of the 6% hurdle. So, tails we lose and rightly so. To recap, the bucket fills and empties as our investment performance exceeds or falls short of the 6% annual hurdle. So, if Nick and I do a decent job investing, over time, the money flowing into the CPR will exceed that flowing out in refunds, and a positive balance will be created.

接下来要考虑的阶段是,CPR(业绩补偿准备金)如何分配到我们公司。我们的方案是,从资金池中向 SZ 公司支付其每年滚动余额的 20%(按余额递减方式计算)。这样一来,你向 CPR 支付的业绩报酬,平均有 5 年时间会面临因后续业绩低于门槛而退款的风险。这让我们获取回报的时间周期与你的保持一致。下图展示了这一动态机制。

The next stage to consider is how the CPR is distributed to our company. What we propose is that SZ & Co is paid, from the bucket, 20% of its running balance each year (on a declining balance basis). This places the performance fees you pay into the CPR at risk of refund for subsequent sub-hurdle performance for, on average, five years. This aligns the duration of our rewards with yours. The picture below illustrates the dynamics.

好,上面就是合伙协议修改的实质内容。这些修改带来了两个次要影响。第一,基金管理人从 Daiwa 变更为 Phoenix Financial Services Limited,我们认为,Phonenix 最能妥善处理我们新费用结构的定制化特性。我们计划在 9 月底进行一次业绩费“快照”,这样 Phoenix 从 10 月起就能以全新状态接手 Nomad 的行政管理。第二,作为 Daiwa 与 Phoenix 交接的结果,Daiwa 在您董事会中的代表 Karl McEneff 辞职,同时任命 Andrew Galloway 担任您的第二位独立董事,与 Martin Byrne 共事。我们感谢 Karl 在交接期间提供的宝贵指导,并欢迎 Andrew 加入。

So, there you have the meat of the changes to the Partnership Agreement. Two secondary effects come from these changes. First, a change of fund administrator from Daiwa to Phoenix Financial Services Limited who, we feel, are best placed to deal with the bespoke nature of our new fee arrangements. We plan to take a performance fee “snapshot” at the end of September, allowing Phoenix to take on Nomad’s administration with a clean sheet in October. Second, and a result of the Daiwa/Phoenix handover, is the resignation of Karl McEneff, Daiwa’s representative on your board, and the appointment of Andrew Galloway as your second independent director alongside Martin Byrne. We thank Karl for his valuable guidance during the handover period and welcome Andrew on board.

我们希望在今年 9 月底前完成合伙公司的行政调整,这样尼克和我就能回到“日常工作”——投资……10 月快点来吧!

We hope to complete the administrative changes to the partnership by the end of September, allowing Nick and I to return to the “day job”, investing…roll on October!

您诚挚的,

凯斯·扎卡里亚

Yours sincerely Qais Zakaria