诺玛德投资合伙公司——年度信函(截至2007年12月31日)
斯利普、扎卡里亚有限公司(Sleep, Zakaria and Company, Ltd.)
Sleep, Zakaria and Company, Ltd.
1a, Burnsall Street London England SW3 3SR T: +44 (0) 20 7101 1960 F: +44 (0) 20 7101 1965 Nomad Investment Partnership 年度信函 截至 2007 年 12 月 31 日 截至 2007 年 12 月 31 日 Nomad Investment MSCI World Partnership * Index (net) 美元 滚动: 一年 +21.2% +9.0% 两年 37.7 30.9 三年 50.4 43.3 四年 83.6 64.4 五年 229.7 118.8 六年 234.0 75.3 自成立以来(2001 年 9 月 10 日) 269.0 81.6 自成立以来年化回报率 扣除业绩费用前 +23.0% 扣除业绩费用后 +19.1% +9.9% 以上数据未经审计,以累积基准列示,并且一如既往,结果在不扣除业绩费用的情况下列示。我们这样列示结果是因为与时间相关的业绩费门槛意味着合伙人的最终净费用结果将各不相同。以下是按单个年度增量列示的相同结果。我们认为,在评估长期投资业绩时,上表最为有用。
1a, Burnsall Street London England SW3 3SR T: +44 (0) 20 7101 1960 F: +44 (0) 20 7101 1965 Nomad Investment Partnership Annual Letter For the period ended December 31st, 2007 To December 31st, 2007 Nomad Investment MSCI World Partnership * Index (net) US$ Trailing: One year +21.2% +9.0% Two years 37.7 30.9 Three years 50.4 43.3 Four years 83.6 64.4 Five years 229.7 118.8 Six years 234.0 75.3 Since inception (Sept 10th 2001) 269.0 81.6 Annualized since inception Before performance fees +23.0% After performance fees +19.1% +9.9% The figures above are unaudited, presented on a cumulative basis and, as ever, the results are presented before performance fees. We present results in this way as the time dependent performance fee hurdle means that partners will have different net-of- all-fees results. Below the same results are presented in discrete annual increments. In our opinion it is the upper table that is most useful in assessing long-term investment performance.
截至 2007 年 12 月 31 日:Nomad 投资 摩根士丹利资本国际世界指数(净收益) 美元 日历年结果:
2007 +21.2% +9.0%
2006 +13.6% +20.1%
2005 +9.2% +9.5%
2004 +22.1% +14.7%
2003 +79.6% +33.1%
2002 +1.3% -19.9%
2001(2001 年 9 月 10 日成立) +10.1% +3.6%
综合上述业绩,成立之初投资于 Nomad 的 1 美元,在扣除业绩报酬前如今约值 3.70 美元,扣除业绩报酬后略超 3 美元;若投资于上述指数,则约值 1.80 美元。
To December 31st, 2007: Nomad Investment MSCI World Partnership Index (net) US$ Calendar Year Results: 2007 +21.2% + 9.0% 2006 +13.6 +20.1 2005 +9.2 +9.5 2004 +22.1 +14.7 2003 +79.6 +33.1 2002 +1.3 -19.9 2001 (inception Sept 10th 2001) +10.1 +3.6 The effect of the performance noted above is that the value of a dollar invested in Nomad at inception would now be worth around U$3.70 before performance fees and just over U$3 after fees. A similar amount invested in the index mentioned above would be worth around U$1.80.
每当我写完这些信,自己看着都挺满意——至少满意到愿意寄出去。我养成了一个习惯,过段时间再重读一遍,结果常常失望。这些信就像保质期很短的东西。我不确定它们是不是特别容易变质,关键是它们原本就没站在多高的起点上:刚写完的时候,脑子总觉得它们比实际要好。就像刚刷好的墙,收工时端着一杯茶看去,觉得挺漂亮;可过了一周,满眼只剩那些没刷到的地方了。
When I finish writing these letters, I am happy with them, at least happy enough to send them out. I make a habit of re-reading them sometime later and frequently they disappoint. It is as if the letters have a short shelf life. I am not sure they do go downhill particularly, it’s just that they did not start that high up the hill in the first place: the mind thinks they are better when just finished than they really are. It is like the freshly painted wall; it looks good as you reach for the cup of tea at the end of the day but give it a week and all you can see are the bits you missed.
就拿上一封信来说,内容就非常复杂。一个接一个地抛出大量深奥的概念,读起来很费劲。这尤其让人恼火,因为投资在本质上是一门非常简单的学问。简单,也许,但并不容易。从我的努力来看,肯定很难讲清楚。那为什么信要写得比实际需要的更复杂呢?可能是因为我们有种自己施加的压力,想说点什么,特别是说点新的或者(更好更)令人印象深刻的东西。事实是,并没有那么多可说的——至少,没有多少以前没说过的话。这就是比圣保罗年轻两千岁、比查理·芒格年轻四十四岁、比我父亲年轻二十九岁所付出的代价。
The last letter, for example, is very complicated. There are many heavy concepts introduced one on top of another and it is hard going to read. This is particularly annoying as investing is, at its heart, a very simple discipline. Simple, perhaps, but not easy. And judging by my efforts, certainly hard to communicate. So why are letters more complicated than they need be? Probably because we feel a self-imposed pressure to say something, especially something new or (better and) impressive. The truth is that there is not that much to say, at least, not much that hasn’t been said before. That’s the curse of being two thousand years younger than Saint Paul, forty- four years younger than Charlie Munger and twenty-nine years younger than my father.
我们稍后还会回到这个话题。不过,今天确实有东西要补充——至少我们自认为有——而本信的主题就是:错误。在这封信中,我们将讨论如何看待错误,为什么对错误的应对方式往往比错误本身更重要,以及我们的一些投资错误。接下来,我们还会讨论为什么客户报告压力会催生非理性思维(一个正在酝酿中的错误?),进一步鼓励合伙人关注我们能控制的东西,并宣布一项或许会让各位感兴趣的内部调整。
We will return to this topic later in the letter. Today, however, we do have something to add, at least we think we do, and the topic for this letter is mistakes. In this letter we will discuss how we think about mistakes, why the response to the mistake is often more important than the mistake itself, and some of our investment mistakes. We will then discuss why client reporting pressures encourage non-rational thought (a mistake in the making?), provide further encouragement to partners to focus on what we control, and announce a change in housekeeping that may be of interest.
我们如何看待错误。
How we think about mistakes.
“如果让我再活一次,我还会犯同样的错,只是要趁早。”
“If I had to live my life again, I’d make the same mistakes, only sooner”.
塔卢拉·班克黑德(女演员) 我们认为,对待错误的最佳心态是“不带评判的宽容”。父母们都明白,如果孩子想法正确,他们会犯错,会自己想办法解决问题并从中学习。他们不需要被评判或惩罚:相反,他们需要来自自己和他人给予的支持。如果他们确实学到了东西,那么与所学知识的价值相比,这些错误很可能显得微不足道。用投资术语来说,一旦吸取了教训,错误就可以按 1 倍的市盈率来定价,而由此形成的良好条件反射行为,则可以按高于 1 倍的市盈率来估值。换句话说,错误就变成了净现值为正的东西。
Tallulah Bankhead (actress) In our opinion, in dealing with mistakes the best state of mind is non-judgmental forgiveness. Parents will recognise that if their child thinks right, they will make mistakes, work it out for themselves and learn. They do not need to be judged or punished: instead, they need support, from themselves and others. If they do learn, then the mistakes are likely to be small compared to the value of what has been learnt. In investment terms, once lessons have been learnt, mistakes can be put on a price earnings ratio of one and the resultant, conditioned, good behaviour on a ratio of more than one. In other words, mistakes become net present value positive.
那么,为什么投资者在某个公司令人失望时会如此不宽容呢?如果我们套用上面的模型,那就不会有问题。如果市场是理性的,而公司又是一个善于学习的组织,那么股价在犯错之后应该会上涨。但现实世界很少这样运转。似乎投资者都假定公司不会从错误中学习。这也有几分道理,因为许多组织在理性行为上本就挣扎。我不禁怀疑,投资者的愤怒是否是一种潜意识的承认——他们投资的是一个不学习的组织?这带来的一个意外后果是,金融服务行业的结构设计,允许人们将尴尬、沮丧和愤怒通过不同资产类别发泄出来。它让投资者变得爱评判而非宽容。你随时能听到有人辩解自己为什么要买入黄金基金,因为那个管理他们科技基金的蠢货犯了一个错误。他可能确实犯了错。然而,如果他从中吸取了教训,那么这只基金的价值——经过合理校准——很可能恰好在投资者抛售时悄然上升。这世上没有太多爱在流传——那种对同类的爱——正因如此,学习也比本该达到的程度少了。
So why is it that investors are so unforgiving when a company disappoints? If we apply the model above then there is not a problem. If the market was rational and the company an organisation that learns, then the stock price should rise after a mistake. But this is seldom the way the world works. It is as if investors presume that companies do not learn from their mistakes. And that makes some sense, as many organisations struggle with rational behaviour. We wonder if investors’ anger is a sub- conscious admission that they invested in a non-learning organisation? An unintended consequence of this is that the financial services industry is structured to allow the embarrassment, frustration and anger to vent through the various asset classes. It is structured to allow investors to be judgmental rather than forgiving. You can just hear people justifying their purchase of a gold fund because that idiot who ran their technology fund made a mistake. And he may have. However, if he learnt from his mistake then the value of the fund, properly calibrated, is likely to be rising just at the time investors are selling. There is not a lot of love going around, in the sense of love for one’s fellow man, and because of this there is less learning than there could be.
这不是我们的模式。
That is not our model.
我们(套上第一人称复数这层防护盔甲)犯过很多错误。(让我更坦诚些)我犯过很多错误。有些错误是我们自己酿成的,有些是从别人身上学到的。有些是直接的投资失误,有些则是成长过程中的必经之路(要小心那些私下的错误,它们饱含投资教训)。但错误就在那儿,瑕瑜互见。人生本就如此。我们不为它们辩解,但也不妄加谴责。事实上,最好的态度是不予评判。我们的模式是从错误中学习,并把所学到的以更优的业绩表现回馈给你们(作为业绩报酬的交换!)。
We (strapping on the protective armour of the first-person plural) have made lots of mistakes. (I will be less cowardly) I have made lots of mistakes. Sometimes we made the mistakes ourselves. Sometimes we learnt from others. Sometimes they were direct investment mistakes. Sometimes they were part of growing up (look out for those private mistakes, they are full of investment lessons). But there they are. Warts and all. This is how life is. We do not justify them, but we do not condemn them either. Indeed, they are best not judged. Our model is to learn from our mistakes and what we learn we hope to give to you, in better performance results (in exchange for a performance fee!).
我们践行这一理念的方式之一,就是投资那些犯过错误的企业。目前我们在 Liberty Global、Games Workshop、戴尔、索尼和福特上的投资都属于这种情况,之前对 Telewest(现为 Virgin Media)和 Calpine 等破产公司的投资也是如此。要让这类投资长期奏效,需要的是理性、诚实的认错态度,以及低廉的股价。市场无情的天性往往能提供后者,但前者却难得得多。
One way we do this is to practice what we preach and invest in businesses that have made mistakes. Our current investments in Liberty Global, Games Workshop, Dell, Sony and Ford fit into this category, as do previous investments in firms in bankruptcy such as Telewest (now Virgin Media) and Calpine. For these investments to work over the long haul, what is required is a rational, honest mea-culpa and a low share price. The unforgiving nature of the markets often provides the latter. The former is much harder to come by.
为什么应对比最初的错误更重要。“人生中,百分之十在于你经历过什么,百分之九十在于你如何面对它。”
Why the response is more important than the original error “Life is ten percent what you make it and ninety percent how you take it.”
威廉·詹姆斯(哲学家)说过:我们都会犯错。更重要的往往是如何应对。以两家公司对同一个错误的回应为例。这个错误是在 1990 年代初上一次重大房地产低迷中被打了个措手不及。这两家公司分别是:住宅地产开发商 MDC,以及一家持有大量商业地产贷款的大型欧洲银行——这家银行资本雄厚得多,我们称它为 X 银行。
William James (philosopher) We all make mistakes. What is often more important is how one responds. Take for example the response of two firms to the same mistake. The mistake was to be caught out by the last major property downturn in the early 1990s. The two firms are: MDC a residential property developer, and a sizeable European bank with a large commercial property loan book which, being far better capitalised than SZ and Co, we will refer to as Bank X.
MDC 公司由拉里·米泽尔(Larry Mizel)于 1972 年创立,初始资本为 5 万美元。20 世纪 80 年代,他的公司建造了公寓和住宅,随着地产周期走向成熟,公司不断将利润和可用借款投入土地储备进行开发。这是典型的地产周期错误,注定购买者会在高点买入,并在下行期缺乏财务灵活性。到 90 年代初,收入已从 1988 年的峰值几乎腰斩,公司背负过多债务并持有大量未开发土地。公司通过出售资产、发行股票以及以几美分价格回购债务避免了破产。米泽尔家族从经历中吸取教训,此后土地储备一直保持在最低水平,债务使用极为谨慎,房屋销售释放的股本资本被用于为下一项目提供股权融资、支付股息,或者在更大程度上保留在资产负债表上。尽管管理层可能已经吸取了教训,但最近在一次演示中被投资者指出“你们的地要不够用了”,想必还是让人恼火。万变不离其宗。尽管近些年整个行业股价下跌,MDC 的股价在过去十年中还是上涨了十倍,如今该公司是行业内资本最雄厚的公司之一。他们将如何应对当前的行业危机,值得观察。
MDC was founded in 1972 by Larry Mizel with U$50,000 in capital. In the 1980s his firm built condominiums and apartments and as the property cycle matured reinvested profits and available borrowings in land for development. This is a classic property cycle error and dooms the purchaser to buying at high prices and leaves little financial flexibility during a downturn. By the early 1990s, revenues had almost halved from the 1988 peak and the firm was left with too much debt and tracts of undeveloped land. The firm averted bankruptcy by selling assets, issuing shares and repurchasing debt at cents on the dollar. The family learnt from its experiences and since then the land bank has been kept to a minimum, debt has been used with great reluctance, and equity capital freed from house sales has been used to equity fund the next venture, pay dividends or, to a greater extent, retained on balance sheet. Whilst management may have learnt their lesson it must have been galling to have pointed out by an investor at a recent presentation “you are going to run out of land”! Plus ca change. The MDC share price has risen ten-fold in the last ten years, despite recent industry wide declines in share prices, and today the firm is one of the best capitalised in the industry. It will be interesting to see how they respond to the current industry crisis.
银行 X 在 1980 年代末也犯过类似错误,通过向商业地产企业发放贷款,不过这一次只需要削减股息就能弥补资本缺口。据公司发言人称,从这场惨败中学到的教训是:银行“不能做商业地产”。企业常常从产出而非投入的角度来错误归类自己的失误,这样一来,原来的错误就得不到纠正。心理学家称之为否认,我们所有人都在某种程度上这么做。但这其实是个错误的教训。损失的根源并非商业地产本身,没有任何先验的理由说明一家贷款机构不能向商业地产放贷——就像这家银行继续向住宅地产或信用卡业务放贷一样。在我们看来,错误在于公司处理商业贷款的方式:在于他们如何思考,以及高管层被激励去如何思考。然而,公司没有通过重新调整企业认知功能来应对错误,反而否定了产出,同时进行国际化多元化,发展投资银行业务和投资管理业务,仿佛这样就能稀释风险。这是一种“以防万一娶三个老婆”的做法,在公司存续方面或许奏效,但很少能与股价成功画上等号:在过去十年里,该行股价涨幅大约只有 10%,也就是年化约 1%。在该机构开个存款账户,回报都要高得多。
Bank X made similar mistakes in the late 1980s through extending loans to commercial property businesses, although here only a dividend cut was required to repair the capital deficit. According to a company spokesman the lesson learnt from the debacle was that the bank “could not do commercial property”. Companies often misclassify their mistakes in terms of outputs rather than inputs, and in so doing allow the original mistake to go unchecked. Psychologists call this denial, and we all do it to some extent. But it was a false lesson. It was not commercial property per se that was the source of the losses, there is no a priori reason why a lending institution cannot make loans to commercial property as this bank continued to in say, residential property, or credit cards. In our opinion, the mistake was in how the company approached commercial lending: it was in how they thought and how senior management were incented to think. However, instead of responding to the mistake by rewiring the corporate cognitive functions the firm condemned the output and diversified internationally and developed investment banking and an investment management operation, as if to dilute the risk. This is a take-three-wives-just-in-case approach and it works in terms of corporate longevity but is rarely equated with share price success: in the trailing ten years the shares of the bank have risen in the order of ten percent, or around one percent per annum. A deposit account at the institution would have returned far more.
在 MDC 和 Bank X 的对比中,还有第二个教训,那就是流行观点认为分散投资能降低风险。这句像苹果派一样家常的格言,实际上暗藏风险。它之所以被捧为无可撼动的金科玉律,是因为人们生动地看到,一次错误就可能导致毕生积蓄灰飞烟灭。但很少有人记录的是,过度分散带来的次优结果所付出的代价——包括缺乏投资研究、高额费用,以及最危险的自满情绪,这种自满让人忽视了唯一真正的长期风险:错误分析一家公司未来走向的风险。举个例子,证券化信托中那种像切香肠一样细碎的贷款。这种分散方式,本质上是想把无知变成资产。这种行为里有一种时代精神:公司们惯常以效率之名,把运营的各个部分分包出去,实际上是把业务切成窄窄的片段。这看起来高效,至少从早期的损益表上看是这样,但很少有公司会问:这个过程里失去了什么?有时候失去的是对分包业务的控制,比如美泰的中国产玩具,或是 BBC 关于女王的纪录片。但大多数情况下,失去的是客户对机构的信任,而且不幸的是,这种情绪往往是双向的。如果你知道,一个长着青春痘的佣金销售员卖给你的抵押贷款,如今躺在某家对冲基金的资产负债表上,你的感觉会完全不同——如果贷款还在那位认识你父亲五十年的分行经理账上,你会更放心。而那个青春痘销售员,如果他的任务只是卖掉你的贷款,他的感觉也会完全不同。非人格化不可避免会导致客户忠诚度降低和商品化,这对长期盈利能力不是好事,不管今天的利润表上写着什么。
There is a second lesson embedded in the contrast between MDC and Bank X, and that is the popular wisdom that diversification lowers risk. This maxim, as homely as apple pie, is fraught with danger. Its ascendancy into the unchallengeable heights of received wisdom comes from the vivid image of seeing one’s nest egg disappear because of one mistake. What is not recorded is the cost of the suboptimal outcomes that result from over-diversification which range from lack of investment work, high fees and, most dangerous of all, complacency which allows one to ignore the only real, long term risk, which is the risk of misanalysing a company’s destination. Take for example the salami slicing of loans that are embedded in securitisation trusts. Diversification used in this way tries to turn ignorance into an asset. There is something of the zeitgeist in this behaviour: companies routinely subcontract parts of their operation in the name of efficiency, in effect salami slicing their operations into narrow functions. This looks efficient, at least as captured by the profit and loss statements in the early years, but few firms ask: what is lost in this process? Sometimes what is lost is control of subcontracted operations such as Mattel’s Chinese sourced toys, or the BBC’s documentary of The Queen. But mostly it is a lack of trust in the institution by the customer and, unfortunately, this sentiment is often reciprocated. If you know a mortgage sold to you by a commissioned pimply youth now resides in one of many hedge funds’ balance sheets you will feel differently about it than if your branch manager, who has known your Dad for fifty years, still has it on his books. And the pimply youth feels differently if all he has to do is sell your mortgage. Depersonalisation inevitably leads to customer disloyalty and commoditisation, and that is not good for long term profitability, regardless of what the profits account reads today.
错误如何变成净现值正值。
How mistakes can become net present value positive.
“观察别人的错误总是令人愉快。”
“It is always a delight to observe other people’s mistakes”.
匿名(其实是,我在出版前没找到出处!)
Anon (Rather, I have not found the source before publishing!)
有一种哲学观点认为,错误只有当你称之为错误时才是错误,否则它就是学习的机会。这听起来很对我们的胃口。我们至今为止最大的两个分析错误(抱歉,学习机会)大概是 Conseco 和 Stagecoach。我们过去已经写过这些错误的详细情况,但本着上面那句引语的精神,我简要概括一下:Conseco 在它的活动房屋贷款证券化信托出现亏损后,导致其保险公司的资本受损,保险业评级机构 A.M. Best 宣布该公司资本不足,最终破产。我们的分析错误是多方面的,但最严重的是,固守购买时的分析来为继续持有辩护。对 Nomad 的投资者来说,直接的美元损失大约是 500 万美元。但机会成本损失,即根据 Nomad 后续表现调整后的美元损失(更公平地反映真实成本),大约是 1000 万美元。
There is a philosophical argument that a mistake is only a mistake if you call it so, otherwise it is a learning opportunity. That seems like the right spirit to us. Our two biggest analytical mistakes (sorry, learning opportunities) to date were probably Conseco and Stagecoach. We have written about these errors extensively in the past, but in the spirit of the quote above I will précis: Conseco went bankrupt after losses in its manufactured housing loan securitisation trusts impaired capital at its insurance company and A.M. Best, the insurance industry rating agency, declared the business inadequately capitalised. Our analytical mistakes were multifarious, but the most serious was to anchor on analysis at the time of purchase to justify continued holding. The immediate dollar loss was around U$5m for investors in Nomad. However, the opportunity cost loss, the dollar loss adjusted for subsequent Nomad performance (a fairer reflection of real costs) is around U$10m.
Stagecoach 在某种程度上是成功的,因为以 14 便士买入的股票被卖到了大约 90 便士的高点。但直到你翻开《金融时报》,看到该股当前交易价格在 2.50 英镑以上,你才会意识到问题。错误在于留下了 1.60 英镑的利润空间,这也是因为固守最初购买决策时的分析(这要求价值高于 14 便士),而没有思考该业务未来的走向。Stagecoach 错误的机会成本,今天大约是 1200 万美元(而且还在增加)。
Stagecoach was a success in the sense that shares purchased at 14p were sold at a high of around 90p. That is until one looks in the Financial Times to be reminded that the shares currently trade above £2.50. The mistake was to leave £1.60 on the table and was also caused by anchoring on the original purchase decision analysis (which required a value above 14p), rather than thinking about the destination for the business in years to come. The opportunity cost of the Stagecoach mistake is broadly U$12m today (and counting).
这两个错误的分析,根源都在于对一家公司持有静止的看法,这种看法形成于购买时,但未能随着事实变化而演变。这种错误还被否认(事实已经变了)和自负(我们不可能错)等误判所强化。此外,还过度依赖价格与价值比率这类分析,这可能会鼓励一种比现实更狭窄的结果范围。凯恩斯勋爵在投资入门课里教过什么:“宁可大致正确,也不要精确地错误”!当我们犯这些错误时,我们本应认定凯恩斯的话是对的。人必须非常小心;有时这些错误非常隐蔽。据说凯恩斯临终遗言是:“我本该多喝点香槟。”毫无疑问,他在这两点上都是对的。
The analytical mistake in both cases was to have a static view of a firm formed at the time of purchase, which failed to evolve as the facts changed. This error was reinforced by misjudgments such as denial (the facts had changed) and ego (we can’t be wrong). There was also an over-reliance on price to value ratio type analysis, which can encourage a tighter range of outcomes than occurs in reality. And what did we learn in Investing 101 from Lord Keynes: “better to be generally right than precisely wrong”! At the time we were making these errors we would have held Keynes’ quote as true. One has to be so careful; sometimes these mistakes are very insidious. Keynes’ dying words were reported to be “I should have had more champagne”. No doubt he is right on both accounts.
如今,分析目的地(destination analysis)是有意地成为我们分析企业的核心。它帮助我们提出更好的问题,触及公司的 DNA。我们在 Conseco 学到的东西,很可能使我们在去年避免了投资美国银行;我们在 Stagecoach 学到的东西,也帮助我们在 2007 年继续持有亚马逊。这两个好处,在 2007 年为 Nomad 的投资者带来了大约 6000 万美元的综合收益。这个假设背后的数学计算有点粗略,也没有根据错误发生后的申购进行调整,但方向正确,意味着 Nomad 在 2007 年很大一部分业绩,来自于从 2003 年和 2004 年错误中吸取的教训。可以把这看作是对前一年亏损的回报。而这仅仅是一年的收益。如果我们真的吸取了教训,那么未来几年收益还会继续。与此同时,我们也在继续对抗否认和自负!
Destination analysis is consciously central to how we analyse businesses these days. It helps us ask better questions and get to a firm’s DNA. What we learnt at Conseco may well have kept us out of the US banks last year, and what we learnt at Stagecoach has helped us continue to own Amazon. These two benefits have been a combined gain in the order of U$60m during 2007 to investors in Nomad. The maths behind this assumption is a little finger-in-the-air and is unadjusted for subscriptions post mistakes, but it is directionally correct and implies that a large proportion of Nomad’s performance in 2007 came from the lessons learnt from mistakes in 2003 and 2004. Think of it as a return on prior year losses. And that is just one year’s gain. If we have really learnt our lesson, then the gains will continue in future years too. In the meantime, we continue to bear down on denial and ego too!
如何避免犯错的技巧 理解智力如何被腐蚀,很可能是一生的工作,有些神秘主义者会说是多生的工作。注意到错误是一个巨大的优势,而且很少有人做到。下面是我们认为导致不愉快结果最常见的三个错误:首先是否认,即在头脑中重新构建现实,因为真相太痛苦而无法承受;其次是锚定,即对问题持有静止、历史的视角;第三是漂移,即思考中微小、渐进的改变如何累积成大错。再加上评判,即谴责或推崇的倾向:这种倾向会阻止很多理性思考,而且几乎无处不在。我们最喜欢的巴菲特故事之一,来自《杰出投资者文摘》对沃尔特·施洛斯的采访(1989 年 6 月 23 日)。沃尔特:“沃伦(巴菲特)和查理·芒格(伯克希尔·哈撒韦副董事长)、杰克·伯恩(消防基金董事长)以及另一个人在圆石滩打高尔夫。其中一个人提议:‘沃伦,如果你在这 18 洞球场上打出一杆进洞,我们给你 1 万美元。如果你打不出,你就欠我们 10 美元。’”
Tips on how to avoid making mistakes Understanding how the intellect can become corrupted is probably a life’s work, some mystics would argue many lives’ work. Noticing the mistakes is a huge advantage and so rarely done. What follows are three mistakes that, in our opinion, contribute to more unhappy outcomes than most. These are: denial, that is the reinvention of reality in the mind because the truth is too painful to bear; anchoring, that is a static, historic vision of a problem; and drift, that is how small, incremental changes in thinking build into a big mistake. Add judging to the list as well, in the sense of condemning or exalting: that disposition stops a lot of rational thought, and it is almost ubiquitous. One of our favourite Buffett stories came from an interview with Walter Schloss carried in the Outstanding Investor Digest (June 23rd 1989, Walter: “Warren (Buffett) was playing golf at Pebble Beach with Charlie Munger (Berkshire Hathaway vice-Chairman), Jack Byrne (Fireman’s Fund Chairman) and another person. One of them proposed, “Warren, if you shoot a hole-in-one on this 18 hole course, we’ll give you U$10,000. If you don’t shoot a hole-in-one, you owe us U$10”.
沃伦想了想,说:“我不赌。”
Warren thought about it and said, “I’m not taking the bet.”
其他人说:“为什么?你最多输 10 美元。你能赢 1 万美元。” 沃伦回答:“如果你在小事上不自律,大事上也不会自律。”
The others said, “Why don’t you? The most you can lose is U$10. You can make U$10,000”. Warren replied, “If you are not disciplined in the little things, you won’t be disciplined in the big things”.”
这个故事我思考了好多年,有两件事让我印象深刻:第一,巴菲特必须思考答案,无疑是在计算概率和赔率。我总是感到欣慰的是,巴菲特的技能必须经过学习和磨练,并非天生!第二,巴菲特认识到,纪律上的小松懈本身就有影响:换句话说,他在警惕漂移。
I have thought about this story for years, and two things strike me: first, Buffett had to think about the answer, no doubt calculating odds and price. I am always relieved that Buffett’s skills had to be learnt and honed, they were not simply innate! Second, Buffett recognised that little lapses in discipline themselves have implications: in other words, he was watching out for drift.
一个帮助更清晰地看世界的小技巧是逆向思考。报纸标题说三分之一的人想要某样东西,同时也告诉你三分之二的人不想要!我们认为,磨练逆向思考技巧最好的书,是特里·亚瑟 1975 年写的《95% 是垃圾——一个普通人看英国政治》。特里是扎克和我有幸遇到的最谦逊、最有思想的人之一,也是 Nomad 最早的投资者之一。随信附上一份特里新版的这本书,更新了现代的垃圾内容。读完这本书,我们保证你再也不会以同样的方式看待所呈现的事实。对此感兴趣的人,我们在亚马逊上以折扣价购买了副本。我们也推荐你为你爱的人每人买一本,当然也在亚马逊上。
One trick to help see the world more clearly is to invert situations. A newspaper headline claiming that one third of the population wants something, also tells you that two-thirds don’t! In our opinion, the best book to hone the skills of inverting was written by Terry Arthur in 1975 and is entitled “95% is Crap – A plain man’s guide to British politics”. Terry is one of the most modest and thoughtful people Zak and I have had the pleasure of meeting, and he was one of the first investors in Nomad. Enclosed with this letter is a copy of the second edition of Terry’s book, updated for modern crap. Once you have read this book, we promise you will not see presented facts the same way again. For those with an interest in such things, we purchased our copies at a discounted price on Amazon. We recommend you buy a copy for everyone you love, on Amazon too, of course.
正在形成的错误。 迷思:“说点什么综合征”能降低风险 在约翰·洛克菲勒的传记《巨人》中,罗恩·切尔诺描述了洛克菲勒如何把沉默等同于力量。有一次,洛克菲勒据说曾说,“弱者舌根轻,对记者喋喋不休,而谨慎的商人则自己拿主意”。因此,标准石油通过收购实现增长可能成为一个问题,因为沉默寡言的管理层,可能会被更健谈的收购对象所稀释。在有一次收购中,洛克菲勒特别高兴地挖到了查尔斯·洛克哈特,一个留着胡子的苏格兰人,举止冷淡,用洛克菲勒的话说,是“商业界最有经验、最自持的人之一”。在谈判收购他公司时,洛克哈特全神贯注地听,但几乎一言不发。这赢得了洛克菲勒的最高赞扬:“这样的人,我真想和他一起去钓鱼。”
Mistakes in the Making. Myth: Say-something syndrome lowers risk In John Rockefeller’s biography, “Titan”, Ron Chernow describes how Rockefeller equated silence with strength. In one incident Rockefeller was reported as saying that “weak men had loose tongues and blabbed to reporters, whilst prudent businessmen kept their own counsel”. Standard Oil’s acquisition led growth could be a problem therefore, as taciturn management could become diluted with a more loquacious, acquired intake. In one acquisition Rockefeller was therefore especially delighted to snare Charles Lockhart, a bearded Scot with a frosty manner who was, in Rockefeller’s words “one of the most experienced, self-contained men in business”. During negotiations to purchase his firm, Lockhart had listened attentively but hardly breathed a syllable. This elicited Rockefeller’s highest praise, “That kind of man I’d like to have go fishing with me”.
借鉴洛克哈特的处事方式,问题来了:扎克和我是不是说太多了?有趣的是,历史上表现最好的两只基金都没有向投资者披露其持仓。它们是巴菲特合伙企业和沃尔特·施洛斯合伙公司,尽管巴菲特写了大量关于他一般如何思考和处理投资的文章。它们不披露持仓是有充分理由的:它们不想被评判、被事后猜测,或者更糟!沃尔特·施洛斯在接受《杰出投资者文摘》的采访中透露了这一点。OID(采访者):你的客户也不知道你在为他们买什么吗?
Taking a leaf from Lockhart’s book, the question is, do Zak and I say too much? For example, it is interesting that two of the best performing funds of all time did not disclose their holdings to investors. These were the Buffett Partnership and Walter Schloss Associates, although Buffett wrote extensively about how he thought and approached investing in general. And it was for a good reason that they did not disclose their holdings, they did not wish to be judged, second-guessed or worse (!) as Walter Schloss revealed in the same interview with the Outstanding Investor Digest, OID (interviewer): Is it true that even your clients don’t know what you’re buying for them?
沃尔特·施洛斯:没错。一个小故事可能有助于解释为什么我们不告诉他们我们持有什么。我们的一位合伙人说:“沃尔特,我把很多钱放在你这里。我对你买的东西感到紧张。”
Walter Schloss: That’s correct. And a little story might help explain why we don’t tell them what we own. One of our partners said, “Walter, I have a lot of money with you. I’m nervous about what you own.”
所以我破例说:“我告诉你几样我们持有的东西。”
So, I made an exception and said, “I’ll tell you a few things that we own”.
我提到了破产的铁路债券和我们持有的其他几样东西。他说:“我受不了知道你们持有那种股票。我得退出合伙公司。”
I mentioned the bankrupt rail bonds and couple of other things we owned. He said, “I can’t stand knowing that you own those kind of stocks. I have to withdraw from the partnership.”
大约一年后他去世了。这也是我们不喜欢向人们提供具体信息的原因之一。
He died about a year later. That’s one of the reasons we don’t like to give people specifics.”
OID你不应该自责。他可能无论如何都会死的。
OIDYou should not blame yourself. He might have died anyway.
(不过,他也可能不会!)让我们反过来想一想:当我们审视被投公司时,那些我们就算几年不收到它们任何消息也心甘情愿持有的企业,正是我们最有信心能抵达美好终点的公司——它们是我们自认为知道会成功的企业。这些公司也是 Nomad 持仓最重的标的。恰恰是那些确定性较低、让我们更没安全感的企业,反而显得需要更频繁的关注。如果市场对我们的持仓清单有需求,那是不是客户潜意识里在问:请给我们一点心理安慰吧,因为信任不够?而每月报告成了行业惯例,这又说明了什么?感谢您帮我们避免了那个错误。我们每半年写一封信,也许和每月报告一样不合理,但究竟以怎样的频率写信才合理呢?大概是在有实质性内容可说的时候。天哪,那可不太常有!查尔斯·洛克哈特式的人会主张按需写信,而不是按日记日期来安排。也许这是未来可以探索的方向。
(Then again, he might not!) Let’s invert for a moment: when we think of our investee companies, the firms which we would quite happily own with no word from them for years are those businesses in which we have the highest confidence of reaching a favourable destination: they are the firms we think we know will work. They are also the largest holdings in Nomad. It is the less certain businesses about which we are more insecure that appear to demand more regular attention. If there is demand for our holdings list, is that what our clients are sub-consciously asking? A bit of handholding please because the trust is lacking? And what does that say of the monthly reporting that passes for industry norm? Thank you for helping us avoid that mistake. Our six-monthly writing may be as irrational as monthly reporting, but at what frequency does letter writing become rational? Presumably when one has something meaningful to say. Gosh, that is not very often! A Charles Lockhart disposition would argue for an ad hoc, rather than diarised, schedule to letter writing. Perhaps this is something to pursue in the future.
在以往的致股东信中,我们讨论过披露具体投资想法会引发功能失调。问题主要出在心理层面,包括:让一个想法被锁定、希望自己显得前后一致、希望别人觉得你行事谨慎,等等。此外还会引发跟风投资、经纪商反向做对我们,以及像沃尔特·施洛斯经历过的那样——要应付那些神经兮兮的人等等。在这封信里,我们把这个话题稍微展开了一些。
In previous letters we have discussed the dysfunctionality of disclosing specific investment ideas. The problems are mainly psychological and include the locking in of an idea, the desire to seem consistent, the wish to seem prudent in other people’s eyes and so forth. There is then the effect of copy-cat investing, brokers trading against us and, as Walter Schloss found out, dealing with nervous-Nellies and so on. In this letter we have expanded on the topic somewhat.
人们很容易把我们免费公布持仓清单这件事,看作一个自找的、不必要的错误,因此一个解决方案就是停止发送这些清单。但如果我们真的停了,那也意味着我们认为这份清单只会被用于最坏的用途(而在这封信里,我已经没完没了地讲评判他人的事了!)。我们知道,有些合伙人对自己的钱是如何被投资的,有一种天然、健康的好奇心(如果换作是我们,我们也会这样!),而且扎克和我都从反向拆解别人的持仓中学到了很多东西。所以我们会继续披露我们的持仓,只不过会单独另行发布。
It is tempting to see the free distribution of our holdings list as an unforced and unnecessary mistake, and so one course of action would be to stop sending them out. However, if we did stop that would also presume that the list was only used for the worst (and I have gone on about being judgmental in this letter already!). We know that some partners have a natural healthy curiosity to see how their money is being invested (if the tables were turned, we would too!) and Zak and I have learnt a great deal from reverse engineering others’ holdings, and so we will continue to disclose our holdings, although under separate post.
我们请您审视自己研究我们持股清单的动机。例如,如果您认为通过跟踪被投公司的股价波动就能监控投资风险,那么诺玛德(Nomad)可能不适合您。我们认为,短暂的、历史性的股价报价波动并不等同于投资风险。事实上,情况恰恰相反。然而,如果您是出于对投资艺术的热爱而研究我们的持股,我们的账簿对您敞开(只是稍有延迟)。
We ask you to examine your motivation for studying our holdings list. If, for example, you think you are monitoring investment risk in monitoring the share prices of investee firms, then perhaps Nomad is not for you. In our opinion, transient, historic, stock price quotation volatility is not the same as investment risk. Indeed, quite the opposite. If, however, you study our holdings through a joy for the art of investing, our books are open to you (well, with a lag).
投资者应该明白,进一步传播我们的想法,有悖于所有合伙人的利益。和以往一样,我们希望持仓清单保持私密,并提醒大家,未经许可不得转载这些信件的内容。我们恳请各位理解。
Investors will understand that the further distribution of our ideas is contrary to all partners’ interests. As ever, our preference is that the holdings list remains private and we remind you that the contents of these letters are not to be reproduced without permission. We do hope you understand.
我们专注于自己能掌控的事。以下段落摘自诺曼·奥尼尔牧师所著的圣依纳爵·罗耀拉生平。皈依之前,依纳爵曾是西班牙军队的士兵,在与法军的一次战斗中负伤。
We focus on what we control The following excerpt is taken from Reverend Norman O’Neal’s account of the life of Saint Ignatius Loyola. Prior to conversion, Ignatius had been a soldier in the Spanish army and was injured in a battle with the French.
“在他(伊格内修斯)康复的那漫长几周里,他极度无聊,便找了些浪漫小说来打发时间。幸运的是,洛约拉的城堡里一本也没有,但有一本基督生平,还有一本圣徒传记。绝望之下,伊格内修斯开始读这些书。他越读越觉得,圣徒们的事迹值得效仿。然而与此同时,他仍继续做着名声与荣耀的白日梦,幻想着赢得某位宫廷贵族淑女的爱情。这位淑女的身份始终无人知晓,但她似乎拥有王室血统。不过他注意到,在阅读和思考圣徒与基督之后,他感到平静而满足;而当他结束关于那位贵族淑女的长久白日梦后,却会感到焦躁不安、极不满足。”
“During the long weeks of his [Ignatius’] recuperation, he was extremely bored and asked for some romance novels to pass the time. Luckily there were none in the castle of Loyola, but there was a copy of the life of Christ and a book on the saints. Desperate, Ignatius began to read them. The more he read, the more he considered the exploits of the saints worth imitating. However, at the same time, he continued to have daydreams of fame and glory, along with fantasies of winning the love of a certain noble lady of the court. The identity of this lady has never been discovered but she seems to have been of royal blood. He noticed, however, that after reading and thinking of the saints and Christ he was at peace and satisfied. Yet when he finished his long daydreams of his noble lady, he would feel restless and unsatisfied.”
可怜的伊格内修斯。不难理解,为何有人会把这样一段祷词归到他名下:“请赐我力量,去接受无法改变之事;赐我勇气,去改变可以改变之事;并赐我智慧,去分辨这两者的不同。”
Poor Ignatius. One can see how he is credited, by some, with the following prayer: “Give me the strength to accept that which I cannot change, The courage to change that which I can, And the wisdom to tell the difference.”
这是一份非常精彩的表述,有助于我们思考合伙经营这件事。在我们看来,投资中最大的风险就是分析失误的风险。我们试图通过研究质量来控制这种风险,尤其是运用我们已经学到的东西。基于研究的决策质量,在长期内几乎完全决定了我们能否做得好。但它几乎无法影响这些结果出现的时间点。扎克和我无法控制每年的业绩数字。要是我们能控制,那该多好。但我们不能。
It is a very beautiful statement and is helpful in thinking about the Partnership. In our opinion, the biggest risk in investing is the risk of misanalysis. We seek to control this risk through the quality of our research, especially through applying what we have learnt. The quality of our research-based decisions overwhelmingly determines whether we will do well in the long run. But it has almost no influence over the timing of these results. Zak and I do not control the annual performance figures. It might be nice if we did. But we don’t.
我们也鼓励你们关注我们所掌控的事情!
We encourage you to focus on what we control too!
令我们合伙人倍感骄傲的是,我们从未接到过要求安抚情绪的请求,而且除了一位研究股价图表而非公司基本面、因此不便透露姓名的朋友外,也没有遭遇赎回。如果这是因为我们的合伙人对短期结果持有坚忍不拔的淡然态度,那将非常美妙。但更好的是,如果这是因为合伙人阅读了我们的信件,了解我们所遵循的理念和方法,并深知这正是未来成功的引擎。
To our partners great credit we have never had hand-holding requests and, with the exception of a friend of mine who studies share price charts rather than companies and shall therefore remain nameless, no redemptions. It would be wonderful if this was because our partners have a stoic indifference to short term results. And better still if this was because partners read our letters, know the philosophy and methodology of what we do, and know that this is the engine of future success.
我们的目标是,在业绩不佳时期与合作伙伴保持的关系,与在顺风顺水时完全一致。而实现这一目标的方法,是鼓励合作伙伴关注我们能掌控的事情。这是一个相当高的目标,我们也明白这一要求有违人性。我的父亲在 1960 年代初期曾在阿布扎比石油公司担任地质学家,当时工程师们之间流传着一句非官方格言:“志存高远,下落时能抓住什么就抓什么。”正是本着这种志存高远的精神,我们请求你们关注投入而非产出。这是理性的做法。如果我们所有人都专注于可控之事,那将是多么了不起的事情!
Our aim is have the same relationship with partners during periods of poor performance as we do during the good times. And we aim to do this through encouraging our partners to focus on the things we control. That is quite a goal, and we understand that what we are asking goes against human nature. My father worked as a geologist for the Abu Dhabi Oil Company in the early 1960s, and the unofficial motto amongst the engineers there was “aim high and grab what you can as you fall”. It is in the spirit of aiming high that we ask you to focus on inputs rather than outputs. It is the rational thing to do. If we were all focused on what can be controlled then that would be something special!
给理性思维支个招:把我们表现好的年份和表现差的年份放在一起看。我们建议您在心里把好年景的盈余匀一些给坏年景的亏空,尤其是未来的坏年景,拜托了!更进一步,干脆把用来形容年份的形容词都去掉。这样你就能接受生活的本来面目了。毕竟,无论年度业绩的先后顺序如何,终点都一样。
A trick to help the rational mind is to put our periods of good performance together with our poor performance. We encourage you to mentally shuffle the surplus from the good years and allocate it to the deficit of the bad years. Especially any future bad years, please! Better still, take away the adjectives used to describe the years. That way one can accept life as it is. After all, regardless of the order in which annual results fall, the destination will be just the same.
事务交接。北方信托已被任命为托管银行,与原有运营机构的交接于 11 月完成,一切顺利。这标志着两年前启动的交接工作全部结束——原有管理机构(与运营机构为同一家)已由凤凰金融服务公司的优秀团队取代(若有账单查询,请致电 +353 1 845 8161 联系凤凰公司)。希望今后与北方信托的接触尽量少,不过如有需要,请拨打 +44 207 982 2213 联系玛西娅·德纳姆。
Housekeeping Northern Trust has been appointed as custodian bank, the transition from the incumbent operative took place in November and it all went without a hitch. This completes the transition started two years ago with the replacement of the incumbent administrator (the same provider) by the excellent folks at Phoenix Financial Services (do call Phoenix +353 1 845 8161 with your statement enquiries). Hopefully there should be little contact with Northern Trust, however, should the need arise, do call Marcia Denham on +44 207 982 2213.
Nomad 对我们来说远不止是一家基金管理公司。年轻时,我曾把投资与生活的其余部分割裂开来,好像它们属于两个不同的世界。这是虚假的构建,另一个错误。我们从家庭中学到的东西,能帮助我们成为更好的投资者;而我们在投资中学到的,也能帮我们成为更好的丈夫和父亲。到头来,所有现实都必须尊重其他所有现实。
Nomad means far more to us than simply managing a fund. As a younger man I separated investing from the rest of my life, as if they were different worlds. This is a false construct. Another mistake. What we learn from home-life helps us be better investors, and what we learn as investors helps us be better husbands and fathers. In the end, all reality has to respect all other reality.
Nomad 是一场理性、形而上学、近乎精神层面的旅程(没有沙子和骆驼,尽管扎克有骆驼陪伴可能会更开心)。而这正是充实人生的全部意义。感谢你的支持。
Nomad is a rational, metaphysical, almost spiritual journey (without the sand and camels, although Zak may be happier with them). And that’s what a full life is all about. Thank you for your support.
此致
敬礼
尼古拉斯·斯利普
- 斯利普·扎卡里亚有限公司自 2006 年 9 月 12 日起被任命为 Nomad 投资合伙公司的投资顾问,取代自合伙公司成立以来一直担任其投资顾问的马拉松资产管理公司。在此次过渡之前,尼古拉斯·斯利普和凯斯·扎卡里亚在马拉松资产管理公司任职期间,一直负责 Nomad 的投资管理工作。合伙人应注意,从马拉松到斯利普·扎卡里亚有限公司的过渡性质,意味着合伙公司不再享有过去所获得的后台基础设施支持。在本函中,我们使用“合伙人”一词作为统称,指代所有 Nomad 投资者,无论是投资于联接基金(Nomad 投资公司)的股东,还是合伙公司的有限合伙人,而非严格法律意义上暗示在联接基金股东、Nomad 和/或斯利普·扎卡里亚有限公司之间创建合伙人关系。
Yours sincerely Nicholas Sleep * Sleep, Zakaria and Company, Ltd., was appointed as investment advisor to the Nomad Investment Partnership with effect from September 12 th 2006, replacing Marathon Asset Management who had been investment advisor to the Partnership since inception. Prior to this transition Nicholas Sleep and Qais Zakaria were responsible for the investment management of Nomad whilst employed by Marathon Asset Management. Partners should note that the very nature of the transition from Marathon to Sleep, Zakaria and Company , Ltd., means that the Partnership does not benefit from the same back office infrastructure support it used to receive. In this letter we use the term "Partners" as a generic term referring to all Nomad investors, whether shareholders in the feeder fund (the Nomad Investment Company) or limited partners in the Partnership and not, in the strict, legal sense of the word, to imply the creation of a partnership between shareholders in the feeder fund, Nomad and/or Sleep, Zakaria and Company, Ltd.
本文件由 Sleep, Zakaria and Company, Ltd. 发布,该公司已获 FSA(监管编号:451772)授权并受其监管。本研究文件仅发送给有意接收的人士,不得转发。游牧投资合伙基金(“本基金”)并非根据《2000 年金融服务与市场法案》(“FSMA”)认可的计划,因此,本基金投资者将不享有 FSMA 项下为保护投资者而制定的规则和条例的保障,也不受金融服务补偿计划的保护。投资组合回报基于扣除管理费和绩效费之前的单位资产价值增长,并已由基金行政管理人独立计算。股票的价值及其任何收益可能下跌也可能上涨,投资者在赎回其股票时可能无法收回投资金额。过往业绩未必可作为未来业绩的指引。Sleep, Zakaria and Company, Ltd. 及其董事或员工均不保证本文所含信息的准确性、充分性或完整性,且 Sleep, Zakaria and Company, Ltd. 明确声明不对该等信息中的错误或遗漏承担任何责任。Sleep, Zakaria and Company, Ltd. 或其任何董事或员工均不对本文所含信息提供任何明示、默示或法定的保证。未经 Sleep, Zakaria and Company, Ltd. 董事明确许可,在任何情况下均不得复制、翻印或分发本文件或其任何部分。注册办公地址:1a, Burnsall Street, London, SW3 3SR, England © Sleep, Zakaria and Company, Ltd.
This document is issued by Sleep, Zakaria and Company, Ltd., which is authorised and regulated by the FSA (No. 451772). This research document is only sent to people who have an interest in receiving it and is not for onward distribution. The Nomad Investment Partnership (“the Fund”) is not a recognised scheme under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (“FSMA”) and accordingly, investors in the Fund will not benefit from the rules and regulations made under FSMA for the protection of investors nor from the Financial Services Compensation Scheme. Portfolio returns are based on the increase in asset value per unit before a deduction for management fees and performance fees and have been independently calculated by the Fund Administrator. The value of the Shares, and any income from them, may go down as well as up and an investor may not receive back, on redemption of his Shares, the amount invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Neither Sleep, Zakaria and Company, Ltd., nor its directors or employees warrant the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the information contained herein nor Sleep, Zakaria and Company, Ltd. expressly disclaims liability for errors or omissions in such information. No warranty of any kind implied, express or statutory is given by Sleep, Zakaria and Company, Ltd. or any of its directors or employees in connection with the information contained herein. Under no circumstances may this document, or any part thereof, be copied, reproduced or redistributed without the express permission of a director of Sleep, Zakaria and Company, Ltd. Registered office: 1a, Burnsall Street, London, SW3 3SR, England © Sleep, Zakaria and Company, Ltd.
Appendix Dear …….
Appendix Dear …….
感谢您来信告知对苏丹局势的担忧,并将此与 Nomad 可能存在的投资联系起来。扎克和我都认为达尔富尔地区的状况令人震惊,也对大家想要有所作为的心情表示理解。
Thank you for your letter informing us of your concerns with conditions in the Sudan and linking this to any investments Nomad may have. Zak and I agree that conditions in Darfur are appalling and we sympathise with the desire to do something about it.
由于 Nomad 并未投资您信中提到的那几家公司,我们本可以就此简单回复就了事。(呼!)不过,这个提议背后的逻辑确实让我们有些困惑,其中涉及一些有趣的准则,容我展开谈谈。
As Nomad has no investments among the list of companies provided, it would be easy for us to just leave it at that. (Phew!) However, the logic of the proposition raised an eyebrow or two here, and there are some interesting principles at foot, so may I elaborate?
我们不会仅仅因为不认同一家公司的某项具体活动就抛售其股票。愿上帝保佑——如果那样做,市场上就没什么可投资了!我确信,就在我写这封信的时候,我们投资的某家公司里,一定有人在干些扎克和我会深感遗憾的事,我们接受了这个现实。
We do not necessarily divest our shares in companies because we disagree with a particular activity of that company. Heaven forbid – there would be nothing left to invest in! I am sure that as I write this someone, somewhere in an investee business is doing something Zak and I would very much regret, and we live with that reality.
退一步说,就算我们真要对某家公司的某项活动表示异议,抛售股票就能起作用吗?根据我们的经验,在公司内部施加影响远比在公司外部更有成效。毕竟,股票附带着投票权!事实上,如果所有同意这个提议的人都把股票卖给那些持反对意见的人,难道不是反而可能让公司的那些行为变得更加根深蒂固吗?在我们看来,无论是在公司内部还是外部,进行公开辩论都比管理层躲在董事会的庇护下、依靠股东的支持来掩盖问题,更有可能带来改变。
Even if we did choose to take exception to a company’s activity, would divesting our shares work? In our experience being inside a company is far more likely to influence behaviour than being outside. After all, shares come with votes! Indeed, if all those that agreed with the proposal sold their shares to those that disagreed, would that not risk entrenching the activities of the company? It seems to us that an open debate both inside and outside a firm has a greater hope of influence than a scenario where management can hide in the boardroom protected by their shareholders’ support.
Nomad 是一个资金池(并非定制化的独立账户)。如果我们真的抛售一项原本质地良好的投资——可能还是在一个因其他人都在效仿该提议策略而导致的低价位上——那么 Nomad 的其他投资者完全有理由批评我们把提议者的利益置于他们的利益之上。这种对话我可不想面对!让我们反过来想想:如果 Nomad 的另一位投资者因为自己并不特别在意的一个理由,提议抛售一系列公司的股票,那位最初的提议者会作何感想?
Nomad is a pooled fund (not a bespoke, segregated fund) and, if we did divest an otherwise sound investment, perhaps at a price depressed by others pursuing the proposed strategy, we may be rightly criticised by other Nomad investors for placing the proposer’s interests above their own. That is not a conversation I would relish! Let’s invert the situation: how would the proposer feel if another investor in Nomad proposed to divest a series of companies on the grounds of an issue they did not feel strongly about?
我确信,Nomad 的部分投资者在某些问题上,比如烟草、酒类和军火(这些都在我们允许的投资范围内),与我们意见不一,但大家都能在长期资本增值这个总体授权下相安无事、和平共处。当然,投资者们随后如何支配他们投资 Nomad 所获得的利润,那是他们自己的选择。
I am sure some investors in Nomad have different views to our own on, say, tobacco, alcohol and arms (all permissible) and we all get along quite well under the general mandate to grow capital over the long term. Of course, how investors then choose to spend their profits from investing in Nomad is up to them.
虽然这个提议的出发点可以理解,但其带来的后果,以及这些后果所引发的继发效应(也就是“接下来会怎样”的问题),可能并非提议者所愿。
Whilst the motivation is understandable, the consequences of the proposal, and the consequences of the consequences (the “what thens” of the situation) may not be what was wished for.
所以,说清楚一点:扎克和我都不同意这个提议的理性逻辑。如果明天罗尔斯·罗伊斯的股价跌到 1 英镑,我们会认真考虑投资这家公司。
So to be clear, Zak and I disagree with the rational logic of the proposal, and we would consider making an investment in, say, Rolls Royce, if we came in tomorrow and the share price was £1.
事实上,我们真该有这么好的运气!
Indeed, we should all be so lucky!
顺致最美好的祝愿。
您真诚的,
尼古拉斯·斯利普
With all best wishes Yours sincerely Nicholas Sleep