彼得·林奇投资“可理解”股票的方法（《AAII杂志》，1997年1月）

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《AAII 期刊》——1997 年 1 月

AAII Journal - January 1997

彼得·林奇投资“可理解”股票的方法

作者：玛丽亚·克劳福德·斯科特

The Peter Lynch Approach to Investing in "Understandable" Stocks By Maria Crawford Scott

在当今的投资界，没有人比彼得·林奇更称得上“大师”。他的投资方法不仅在现实世界中成功通过了业绩检验，而且他坚信个人投资者在使用这套方法时，比华尔街和大型资本管理公司拥有明显的优势。他认为，个人投资者在遵循这一基本方法上更具灵活性，因为他们不受官僚规则和短期业绩压力的束缚。

No modern-day investment "sage" is better known than Peter Lynch. Not only has his investment approach successfully passed the real-world performance test, but he strongly believes that individual investors have a distinct advantage over Wall Street and large money managers when using his approach. Individual investors, he feels, have more flexibility in following this basic approach because they are unencumbered by bureaucratic rules and short-term performance concerns.

林奇的投资哲学是在富达管理与研究公司（Fidelity Management and Research）形成的，而他管理富达麦哲伦基金（Magellan Fund）的业绩则为他赢得了巨大的声誉。从 1977 年该基金创立到 1990 年林奇退休，在他管理期间，麦哲伦基金始终位列表现最佳的股票基金之列。

Mr. Lynch developed his investment philosophy at Fidelity Management and Research, and gained his considerable fame managing Fidelity’s Magellan Fund. The fund was among the highest-ranking stock funds throughout Mr. Lynch’s tenure, which began in 1977 at the fund’s launching, and ended in 1990, when Mr. Lynch retired.

彼得·林奇的投资法严格遵循自下而上，先从投资者熟悉的公司中筛选标的，再通过基本面分析，深入了解公司本身、发展前景、竞争环境，以及能否以合理价格买入股票。他的基本策略详述于畅销书《选股战略》（One Up on Wall Street）[企鹅出版社平装版，1989 年]，书中为个人投资者提供了大量调整和运用其方法的指南。他最新出版的《战胜华尔街》（Beating the Street）[Fireside/Simon & Schuster 平装版，1994 年]进一步深化了前一本书的主题，给出了他对具体投资过的公司及行业的操作实例。本文的主要素材即来源于此。

Peter Lynch’s approach is strictly bottom-up, with selection from among companies with which the investor is familiar, and then through fundamental analysis that emphasizes a thorough understanding of the company, its prospects, its competitive environment, and whether the stock can be purchased at a reasonable price. His basic strategy is detailed in his best-selling book "One Up on Wall Street" [Penguin Books paperback, 1989], which provides individual investors with numerous guidelines for adapting and implementing his approach. His most recent book, "Beating the Street" [Fireside/Simon & Schuster paperback, 1994], amplifies the theme of his first book, providing examples of his approach to specific companies and industries in which he has invested. These are the primary sources for this article.

投资理念：投资你所了解的东西

The Philosophy: Invest in What You Know

林奇是一个“故事”型投资者。也就是说，他每一次选股都基于对公司增长前景的可靠预期。这些预期源于公司的“故事”——即这家公司将要做什么，或者将要发生什么，来促成预期的结果。

Lynch is a "story" investor. That is, each stock selection is based on a well-grounded expectation concerning the firm’s growth prospects. The expectations are derived from the company’s "story"--what it is that the company is going to do, or what it is that is going to happen, to bring about the desired results.

你对一家公司越熟悉，越了解它的生意和竞争环境，就越有可能找到一个最终能兑现的好“故事”。正因如此，林奇强烈主张投资自己熟悉的公司，或者那些产品或服务相对容易理解的公司。所以，林奇说他宁愿投资“连裤袜而不是通信卫星”，宁愿投“连锁汽车旅馆而不是光纤”。

The more familiar you are with a company, and the better you understand its business and competitive environment, the better your chances of finding a good "story" that will actually come true. For this reason, Lynch is a strong advocate of investing in companies with which one is familiar, or whose products or services are relatively easy to understand. Thus, Lynch says he would rather invest in "pantyhose rather than communications satellites," and "motel chains rather than fiber optics."

林奇并不认为应该把投资局限在某一种股票上。他的“故事”投资法，实际上恰恰相反——他投资的公司各有各值得看好的理由。不过总的来说，他偏向于那些规模较小、增长适中、可以用合理价格买入的公司。

Lynch does not believe in restricting investments to any one type of stock. His "story" approach, in fact, suggests the opposite, with investments in firms with various reasons for favorable expectations. In general, however, he tends to favor small, moderately fast-growing companies that can be bought at a reasonable price.

Selection Process

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林奇的“自下而上”选股法意味着，未来可能上涨的股票必须逐一挑选，然后彻底调查——没有任何公式或筛选器能直接列出一张“好故事”候选清单。相反，林奇建议投资者根据自己的经验寻找机会——比如，在自己所在的行业或岗位中，或是作为产品的消费者时多加留意。

Lynch’s bottom-up approach means that prospective stocks must be picked one-by-one and then thoroughly investigated--there is no formula or screen that will produce a list of prospective "good stories." Instead, Lynch suggests that investors keep alert for possibilities based on their own experiences--for instance, within their own business or trade, or as consumers of products.

下一步，你应该彻底熟悉这家公司，以便对它的未来形成合理的预期。不过，林奇并不相信投资者能预测实际的增长率，他对分析师给出的盈利预测也持怀疑态度。

The next step is to familiarize yourself thoroughly with the company so that you can form reasonable expectations concerning the future. However, Lynch does not believe that investors can predict actual growth rates, and he is skeptical of analysts’ earnings estimates.

相反，他建议你审视公司的计划——它打算如何提高盈利，这些计划实际上执行得如何？林奇指出了公司提高盈利的五种途径：降低成本；提高售价；开拓新市场；在原有市场扩大销售；或者重整、关闭或出售亏损业务。公司提高盈利的计划及其执行能力就是它的“故事”，你对这家公司或行业越熟悉，就越有优势去评估公司的计划、能力以及任何潜在陷阱。

Instead, he suggests that you examine the company’s plans--how does it intend to increase its earnings, and how are those intentions actually being fulfilled? Lynch points out five ways in which a company can increase earnings: It can reduce costs; raise prices; expand into new markets; sell more in old markets; or revitalize, close, or sell a losing operation. The company’s plan to increase earnings and its ability to fulfill that plan are its "story," and the more familiar you are with the firm or industry, the better edge you have in evaluating the company’s plan, abilities, and any potential pitfalls.

根据林奇的观点，对公司进行分类可以帮助你构建“故事”脉络，从而形成合理的预期。他建议首先按规模对公司进行分类。大公司的增长速度不可能像小公司那样快。

Categorizing a company, according to Lynch, can help you develop the "story" line, and thus come up with reasonable expectations. He suggests first categorizing a company by size. Large companies cannot be expected to grow as quickly as smaller companies.

接下来，他建议按“故事”类型对公司进行分类，并指出了六种类型：

Next, he suggests categorizing a company by "story" type, and he identifies six:

缓慢增长型：规模庞大且日趋成熟的企业的预期增速仅略高于美国经济整体水平，但通常派发稳定且丰厚的常规股息。这类股票并非他的首选。

稳健增长型：规模较大、仍具增长能力的大型企业，年盈利增长率约在 10% 至 12%；例如可口可乐、宝洁和百时美施贵宝。林奇表示，若以合理价格买入，预期回报尚可但不会极高——两年内涨幅肯定不超过 50%，甚至可能更低。他建议投资者在这类公司间轮换操作：当股价取得温和涨幅时卖出，再对尚未上涨的其他同类公司重复这一模式。这类企业在经济衰退期间也具备下行保护能力。

快速增长型：规模较小、进取心强的新兴公司，年盈利增长率达 20% 至 25%。它们不必身处快速增长的行业，事实上林奇更青睐那些并非处于热门赛道的公司。快速增长型是林奇偏爱的品种之一，他表示投资者最大收益往往来自这类股票。然而，它们也伴随着相当高的风险。

周期型：销售额和利润会随经济周期呈现某种可预测的涨跌模式的企业；例如汽车行业、航空公司和钢铁公司。林奇警告，缺乏经验的投资者容易将这类公司误认为稳健增长型，但周期型公司的股价在困难时期可能大幅下跌。因此，投资此类企业的时机把握至关重要，林奇认为投资者必须学会识别业务开始转向衰退的早期信号。

困境反转型：已遭受重创或陷入低迷的企业——林奇称之为“无增长型公司”；他的例子包括克莱斯勒、宾州中央铁路公司和通用公共事业公司（三里岛核电站的拥有者）。成功的困境反转型股票会迅速反弹，林奇指出，在所有类别中，这类股票的上涨与大盘走势关联度最低。

隐蔽资产型：公司拥有华尔街分析师及其他投资者忽视的资产。林奇指出了几个通常能找到资产型投资机会的领域——金属与石油、报纸与电视台、以及专利药品。然而，发现这些隐藏资产需要真正深入的研究工作。

Slow Growers: Large and aging companies expected to grow only slightly faster than the U.S. economy as a whole, but often paying large regular dividends. These are not among his favorites. Stalwarts: Large companies that are still able to grow, with annual earnings growth rates of around 10% to 12%; examples include Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, and Bristol-Myers. If purchased at a good price, Lynch says he expects good but not enormous returns--certainly no more than 50% in two years and possibly less. Lynch suggests rotating among the companies, selling when moderate gains are reached, and repeating the process with others that haven’t yet appreciated. These firms also offer downside protection during recessions. Fast-Growers: Small, aggressive new firms with annual earnings growth of 20% to 25% a year. These do not have to be in fast-growing industries, and in fact Lynch prefers those that are not. Fast-growers are among Lynch’s favorites, and he says that an investor’s biggest gains will come from this type of stock. However, they also carry considerable risk. Cyclicals: Companies in which sales and profits tend to rise and fall in somewhat predictable patterns based on the economic cycle; examples include companies in the auto industry, airlines and steel. Lynch warns that these firms can be mistaken for stalwarts by inexperienced investors, but share prices of cyclicals can drop dramatically during hard times. Thus, timing is crucial when investing in these firms, and Lynch says that investors must learn to detect the early signs that business is starting to turn down. Turnarounds: Companies that have been battered down or depressed--Lynch calls these "no-growers"; his examples include Chrysler, Penn Central and General Public Utilities (owner of Three Mile Island). The stocks of successful turnarounds can move back up quickly, and Lynch points out that of all the categories, these upturns are least related to the general market. Asset opportunities: Companies that have assets that Wall Street analysts and others have overlooked. Lynch points to several general areas where asset plays can often be found--metals and oil, newspapers and TV stations, and patented drugs. However, finding these hidden assets requires a real working

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要了解拥有这些资产的公司，林奇指出，在这一类别中，“本地”优势——也就是你自己的知识和经验——可以发挥最大的作用。

www.csulb.edu/~pammerma/f in382/screener/ly nch.htm 2/7 knowledge of the company that owns the assets, and Lynch points out that within this category, the "local" edge--your own knowledge and experience--can be used to greatest advantage.

Selection Criteria

分析是林奇方法的核心。在考察一家公司时，他会努力理解该公司的业务和前景，包括任何竞争优势，并评估可能阻碍这出“好戏”上演的潜在陷阱。此外，如果故事结局圆满，但股票买入价过高，投资者也同样无法获利。因此，他还会试图确定合理的价值。

Analysis is central to Lynch’s approach. In examining a company, he is seeking to understand the firm’s business and prospects, including any competitive advantages, and evaluate any potential pitfalls that may prevent the favorable "story" from occurring. In addition, an investor cannot make a profit if the story has a happy ending but the stock was purchased at a too-high price. For that reason, he also seeks to determine reasonable value.

以下是一些林奇建议投资者关注的关键数字：

Here are some of the key numbers Lynch suggests investors examine:

逐年盈利记录：历史盈利记录应当考察其稳定性和一致性。股价不可能长期偏离盈利水平，因此盈利增长的模式将有助于揭示公司的稳定性和实力。理想情况下，盈利应持续向上增长。

Year-by-year earnings: The historical record of earnings should be examined for stability and consistency. Stock prices cannot deviate long from the level of earnings, so the pattern of earnings growth will help reveal the stability and strength of the company. Ideally, earnings should move up consistently.

盈利增长：盈利增长率应与公司“故事”相吻合——高增长公司的增长率应高于低增长公司。极高的盈利增长率不可持续，但持续的高增长可能已被计入价格。一家公司或行业的高增长水平将吸引大量关注——来自推高股价的投资者，也来自带来更艰难商业环境的竞争对手。

Earnings growth: The growth rate of earnings should fit with the firm’s "story"--fast-growers should have higher growth rates than slow-growers. Extremely high levels of earnings growth rates are not sustainable, but continued high growth may be factored into the price. A high level of growth for a company and industry will attract a great deal of attention from both investors, who bid up the stock, and competitors, who provide a more difficult business environment.

市盈率：公司的盈利潜力是决定公司价值的主要因素，但有时市场会跑过头，把一只股票炒得过高。市盈率通过将当前股价与最新公布的盈利进行比较，能帮你保持清醒。前景看好的股票，其市盈率理应高于前景黯淡的股票。

The price-earnings ratio: The earnings potential of a company is a primary determinant of company value, but at times the market may get ahead of itself and overprice a stock. The price-earnings ratio helps you keep your perspective, by comparing the current price to most recently reported earnings. Stocks with good prospects should sell with higher price-earnings ratios than stocks with poor prospects.

市盈率相对于其历史均值：研究数年周期内的市盈率变化模式，应当能揭示该公司的“正常”水平。这有助于你在股价跑赢盈利时避免买入，或为你持有的股票发出可能是时候了结部分利润的早期预警。

The price-earnings ratio relative to its historical average: Studying the pattern of price-earnings ratios over a period of several years should reveal a level that is "normal" for the company. This should help you avoid buying into a stock if the price gets ahead of the earnings, or sends an early warning that it may be time to take some profits in a stock you own.

市盈率与行业平均水平的对比：将一家公司的市盈率与整个行业进行比较，或许有助于发现这家公司是不是个便宜货。至少，这会引发一些问题——为什么这家公司的定价不一样——它是行业里的差等生，还是仅仅被忽视了？

The price-earnings ratio relative to the industry average: Comparing a company’s price-earnings ratio to the industry’s may help reveal if the company is a bargain. At a minimum, it leads to questions as to why the company is priced differently--is it a poor performer in the industry, or is it just neglected?

市盈率相对盈利增长速度的比值：前景更好的公司应当享有更高的市盈率，但两者之间的比值可以揭示出便宜货或高估值。市盈率仅为历史盈利增长速度一半的水平被视为有吸引力，而相对比值高于 2.0 则缺乏吸引力。对于派发股息的股票，林奇通过将股息率加入盈利增长来优化这一指标 [换句话说，市盈率除以盈利增长率与股息率之和]。采用这一改进方法后，比值高于 1.0 被视为不佳，而低于 0.5 则被视为有吸引力。

The price-earnings ratio relative to its earnings growth rate: Companies with better prospects should sell with higher price-earnings ratios, but the ratio between the two can reveal bargains or overvaluations. A price- earnings ratio of half the level of historical earnings growth is considered attractive, while relative ratios above 2.0 are unattractive. For dividend-paying stocks, Lynch refines this measure by adding the dividend yield to the earnings growth [in other words, the price-earnings ratio divided by the sum of the earnings growth rate and dividend yield]. With this modified technique, ratios above 1.0 are considered poor, while ratios below 0.5 are considered attractive.

债务股本比率：资产负债表上有多少负债？稳健的资产负债表能为公司扩张或遇到困难时提供回旋余地。林奇尤其警惕银行贷款，因为这类负债通常可被银行随时要求偿还。

Ratio of debt to equity : How much debt is on the balance sheet? A strong balance sheet provides maneuvering room as the company expands or experiences trouble. Lynch is especially wary of bank debt, which can usually be called in by the bank on demand.

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每股净现金：每股净现金的计算方法是，将现金及现金等价物的数额相加，减去长期债务，再除以流通股数量。较高的每股净现金水平为股价提供支撑，并表明公司财务实力雄厚。

www.csulb.edu/~pammerma/f in382/screener/ly nch.htm 3/7 Net cash per share: Net cash per share is calculated by adding the level of cash and cash equivalents, subtracting long-term debt, and dividing the result by the number of shares outstanding. High levels provide a support for the stock price and indicate financial strength.

股息与派息率：股息通常由大型公司支付，而林奇更倾向于选择小型成长型公司。不过，林奇建议，偏好派息公司的投资者应寻找在经济衰退期仍具备派息能力的企业（以盈利中用于派息的比例较低为标志），以及拥有连续 20 年或 30 年定期提高股息记录的公司。

Dividends & payout ratio: Dividends are usually paid by the larger companies, and Lynch tends to prefer smaller growth firms. However, Lynch suggests that investors who prefer dividend-paying firms should seek firms with the ability to pay during recessions (indicated by a low percentage of earnings paid out as dividends), and companies that have a 20-year or 30-year record of regularly raising dividends.

库存：库存是否在积压？这对周期股来说是一个尤为重要的指标。林奇指出，对制造商或零售商而言，库存增加是个坏信号；当库存增速超过销售增速时，危险信号就已亮起。另一方面，如果一家公司处于低迷状态，转机的第一个迹象就是库存开始被消化。

Inventories: Are inventories piling up? This is a particularly important figure for cyclicals. Lynch notes that, for manufacturers or retailers, an inventory buildup is a bad sign, and a red flag is waving when inventories grow faster than sales. On the other hand, if a company is depressed, the first evidence of a turnaround is when inventories start to be depleted.

在评估公司时，林奇发现某些特征特别有利。这些特征包括：

When evaluating companies, there are certain characteristics that Lynch finds particularly favorable. These include:

公司名字听起来乏味，产品或服务处于一个乏味的领域，公司做的事情令人不快或压抑，或者存在关于公司的负面传闻——林奇喜欢这类公司，因为它们“丑小鸭”的特质往往会反映在股价上，因此常常能捡到便宜货。他提到的例子包括：国际服务公司（一家殡仪馆运营商——令人压抑）、废品管理公司（有毒废物清理公司——令人不快）。

公司是分拆出来的——林奇说这些公司通常很少受到华尔街关注，他建议投资者几个月后再去看看，看内部人有没有在买入。

高成长公司处于一个没有增长的行业——成长行业会吸引太多投资者的关注（导致高价）和竞争对手。

公司是一家利基企业，控制着一个细分市场，或者竞争对手难以进入。

公司生产的产品，无论经济好坏人们都会持续购买——比如药品、软饮料和剃须刀片——比那些产品销售更不确定的公司更稳定。

公司是技术的使用者——这类公司可以利用技术进步，但往往不像直接生产技术的公司（如计算机公司）那样拥有高估值。

机构持股比例低，分析师覆盖少——被华尔街忽视的公司中可以找到便宜货。

内部人在买入股票——这是内部人对公司前景特别有信心的积极信号。

公司在回购股票——一旦公司开始成熟，现金流超过资本需求时，回购就会成为重要议题。林奇更偏爱回购股票的公司，而非那些选择扩张到不相关业务的公司。回购有助于支撑股价，且通常在管理层认为股价有利时进行。

The name is boring, the product or service is in a boring area, the company does something disagreeable or depressing, or there are rumors of something bad about the company--Lynch likes these kinds of firms because their ugly duckling nature tends to be reflected in the share price, so good bargains often turn up. Examples he mentions include: Service Corporation International (a funeral home operator--depressing); and Waste Management (a toxic waste clean-up firm--disagreeable). The company is a spin-off--Lynch says these often receive little attention from Wall Street, and he suggests that investors check them out several months later to see if insiders are buying. The fast-growing company is in a no-growth industry--Growth industries attract too much interest from investors (leading to high prices) and competitors. The company is a niche firm controlling a market segment or that would be difficult for a competitor to enter. The company produces a product that people tend to keep buying during good times and bad--such as drugs, soft drinks, and razor blades--More stable than companies whose product sales are less certain. The company is a user of technology--These companies can take advantage of technological advances, but don’t tend to have the high valuations of firms directly producing technology, such as computer firms. There is a low percentage of shares held by institutions, and there is low analyst coverage--Bargains can be found among firms neglected by Wall Street. Insiders are buying shares--A positive sign that insiders feel particularly confident about the firm’s prospects. The company is buying back shares--Buybacks become an issue once companies start to mature and have cash flow that exceeds their capital needs. Lynch prefers companies that buy their shares back over firms that choose to expand into unrelated businesses. The buyback will help to support the stock price and is usually performed when management feels share price is favorable.

林奇认为不利的特征是：

Characteristics Lynch finds unfavorable are:

热门行业的热门股票。

有宏大计划但尚未得到验证的公司（尤其是小公司）。

通过多元化收购来扩张的盈利公司。林奇称这类行为为“恶化式多元”。

单一客户占其销售额 25% 到 50% 的公司。

Hot stocks in hot industries. Companies (particularly small firms) with big plans that have not yet been proven. Profitable companies engaged in diversifying acquisitions. Lynch terms these "diworseifications." Companies in which one customer accounts for 25% to 50% of their sales. www.csulb.edu/~pammerma/f in382/screener/ly nch.htm 4/7

组合构建与监控

Portfolio Building and Monitoring

作为麦哲伦基金的基金经理，林奇一度同时持有多达 1400 只股票。尽管他成功驾驭了这么多股票，但他确实指出了管理如此庞大数量的股票所面临的重大难题。个人投资者的持仓数量当然远不及此，但他同样警惕过度分散化。他认为，仅仅为了分散而分散毫无意义，尤其是当这意味着对持仓公司缺乏足够了解时。林奇说，投资者应当持有的是那些自己能发掘出来的、经得起研究检验的“激动人心的前景”股票，数量多少随自己而定。他还建议投资于几种不同类型的股票，以此分散下行风险。另一方面，林奇警告不要只押注一只股票。

As portfolio manager of Magellan, Lynch held as many as 1,400 stocks at one time. Although he was successful in juggling this many stocks, he does point to significant problems of managing such a large number of stocks. Individual investors, of course, will get nowhere near that number, but he is wary of over-diversification just the same. There is no point in diversifying just for the sake of diversifying, he argues, particularly if it means less familiarity with the firms. Lynch says investors should own however many "exciting prospects" that they are able to uncover that pass all the tests of research. Lynch also suggests investing in several categories of stocks as a way of spreading the downside risk. On the other hand, Lynch warns against investment in a single stock.

林奇主张对股票市场保持长期投入。他并不推崇择时交易，甚至认为这根本不可能做到。但这并不意味着投资者应该永远持有一只股票。相反，林奇认为投资者应该每隔几个月审视自己的持仓，重新核查公司的“故事”，看看随着故事的发展或股价的变化，是否有任何改变。他指出，知道何时卖出的关键是明白“当初为什么买入”。林奇表示，如果出现以下情况，投资者就应该卖出：

Lynch is an advocate of maintaining a long-term commitment to the stock market. He does not favor market timing, and indeed feels that it is impossible to do so. But that doesn’t necessarily mean investors should hold onto a single stock forever. Instead, Lynch says investors should review their holdings every few months, rechecking the company "story" to see if anything has changed either with the unfolding of the story or with the share price. The key to knowing when to sell, he says, is knowing "why you bought it in the first place." Lynch says investors should sell if:

故事的发展正如预期，并已反映在价格上。例如，一家稳健型公司的股价涨幅已与预期相当。

故事中的某些情节未能按预期展开，或者故事发生了变化，再或者基本面出现了恶化。例如，周期性公司的库存开始积压，或者一家小型公司进入了新的增长阶段。

The story has played out as expected and this is reflected in the price; for instance, the price of a stalwart has gone up as much as could be expected. Something in the story fails to unfold as expected or the story changes, or fundamentals deteriorate; for instance, a cyclical’s inventories start to build, or a smaller firm enters a new growth stage.

对林奇来说，价格下跌是趁低价买入更多优质前景的机会。他说，一旦股价上涨，坚持持有赢家股票要难得多，尤其是对于高速增长的公司，人们往往倾向于过早卖出而非过晚。对于这类公司，他建议一直持有，直到明确看到公司进入另一个增长阶段。

For Lynch, a price drop is an opportunity to buy more of a good prospect at cheaper prices. It is much harder, he says, to stick with a winning stock once the price goes up, particularly with fast-growers where the tendency is to sell too soon rather than too late. With these firms, he suggests holding on until it is clear the firm is entering a different growth stage.

与其简单地卖出一只股票，林奇建议采用“轮换策略”——卖掉这家公司，换入另一家逻辑相似但前景更好的公司。这种轮换方法能让投资者保持对股市的长期投入，同时始终聚焦于基本面价值。

Rather than simply selling a stock, Lynch suggests "rotation"--selling the company and replacing it with another company with a similar story, but better prospects. The rotation approach maintains the investor’s long-term commitment to the stock market, and keeps the focus on fundamental value.

总的来说

Summing It Up

林奇提供了一套实用的投资方法，适合不同类型的投资者——从偏好高速成长的投资者，到更青睐稳定派息型投资的人。他的策略需要大量的亲身调研，但他的书里提供了大量实用建议，告诉你在一家公司里该关注什么，以及如何从整体上理解市场。

Lynch offers a practical approach that can be adapted by many different types of investors, from those emphasizing fast growth to those who prefer more stable, dividend-producing investments. His strategy involves considerable hands-on research, but his books provide lots of practical advice on what to look for in an individual firm, and how to view the market as a whole.

林奇对股票投资及其展望的总结最为精辟：

Lynch sums up stock investing and his outlook best:

尽管蠢行屡见不鲜，但我依然对美国、美国人民以及投资本身持乐观态度。当你投资股票时，你必须对人性的基本信念、对资本主义、对整个国家、以及对未来总体繁荣抱有根本的信心。迄今为止，还没有任何东西强大到足以动摇我的信念。

"Frequent follies notwithstanding, I continue to be optimistic about America, Americans, and investing in general. When you invest in stocks, you have to have a basic faith in human nature, in capitalism, in the country at large, and in future prosperity in general. So far, nothing’s been strong enough to shake me out of it."

彼得·林奇投资法简述

理念与风格

The Peter Lynch Approach in Brief Philosophy and style

投资那些增长前景有充分依据可期的公司，并以合理价格买入其股票。对公司及其竞争环境的透彻理解，是投资者在寻找合理定价股票时唯一能领先其他投资者的“优势”。

Investment in companies in which there is a well-grounded expectation concerning the firm’s growth prospects and in which the stock can be bought at a reasonable price. A thorough understanding of the company and its competitive environment is the only "edge" investors have over other investors in finding reasonably valued stocks.

股票投资领域

Universe of stocks

所有上市和场外交易的股票——没有任何限制。

All listed and over-the-counter stocks-no restrictions.

初选标准

Criteria for initial consideration

从你熟悉并理解其股价驱动因素的行业和公司中进行选择。确保你能讲清楚潜在股票的“叙事脉络”——公司的增长计划，以及任何其他有助于企业发展的系列事件——同时要理解这些因素，并与潜在风险做好权衡。在评估候选股票时，将其归入六大主要“叙事”类型会很有帮助。具体考量因素取决于公司的“故事”，但以下几项应当重点审视：

Select from industries and companies with which you are familiar and have an understanding of the factors that will move the stock price. Make sure you can articulate a prospective stock’s "story line"-the company’s plans for increasing growth and any other series of events that will help the firm-and make sure you understand and balance them against any potential pitfalls. Categorizing the stocks among six major "story" lines is helpful when evaluating prospective stocks. Specific factors depend on the firm’s "story," but these factors should be examined:

逐年盈利：寻找稳定、一致且呈上升趋势的盈利记录。

市盈率相对历史均值：市盈率应处于其历史均值的较低区间。

市盈率相对行业均值：市盈率应低于行业平均水平。

市盈率相对盈利增长率：市盈率是历史盈利增长率一半的水平具有吸引力；比值超过 2.0 则没有吸引力。对于派息股票，使用市盈率除以盈利增长率与股息率之和——比值低于 0.5 具有吸引力，高于 1.0 则不佳。

债务权益比：公司的资产负债表应保持强劲，相对于股权融资，债务水平应较低，尤其要警惕高额银行债务。

每股净现金：每股净现金相对于股价的比值应较高。

股息与派息率：对于寻求派息型公司的投资者，应寻找低派息率（每股收益除以每股股息）以及连续提高股息的长记录（20 到 30 年）的公司。

库存：对于周期性行业尤为重要，库存积压是一个预警信号，尤其是当库存增长速度超过销售增长速度时。

Year-by-year earnings: Look for stability and consistency, and an upward trend. P/E relative to historical average: The price-earnings ratio should be in the lower range of its historical average. P/E relative to industry average: The price-earnings ratio should be below the industry average. P/E relative to earnings growth rate: A price-earnings ratio of half the level of historical earnings growth is attractive; relative ratios above 2.0 are unattractive. For dividend-paying stocks, use the price-earnings ratio divided by the sum of the earnings growth rate and dividend yield-ratios below 0.5 are attractive, ratios above 1.0 are poor. Debt-equity ratio: The company’s balance sheet should be strong, with low levels of debt relative to equity financing, and be particularly wary of high levels of bank debt. Net cash per share: The net cash per share relative to share price should be high. Dividends and payout ratio: For investors seeking dividend-paying firms, look for a low payout ratio (earnings per share divided by dividends per share) and long records (20 to 30 years) of regularly raising dividends. Inventories: Particularly important for cyclicals, inventories that are piling up are a warning flag, particularly if growing faster than sales.

其他有利的特点

Other favorable characteristics

公司名字乏味无趣，产品或服务处于枯燥的领域，做的事情让人讨厌或压抑，或者有关于公司的负面传闻。

公司是分拆出来的。

高增长的公司处在零增长的行业里。

公司是控制着某个细分市场的利基型企业。

公司生产的产品，无论经济好坏，人们都会持续购买。

The name is boring, the product or service is in a boring area, the company does something disagreeable or depressing, or there are rumors of something bad about the company. The company is a spin-off. The fast-growing company is in a no-growth industry. The company is a niche firm controlling a market segment. The company produces a product that people tend to keep buying during good times and bad.

www.csulb.edu/~pammerma/f in382/screener/ly nch.htm 6/7

该公司可以利用技术进步，但其本身并不是技术的直接生产商。机构持股比例低，分析师关注度也低。内部人士正在买入股票。公司也在回购股票。

www.csulb.edu/~pammerma/f in382/screener/ly nch.htm 6/7 The company can take advantages of technological advances, but is not a direct producer of technology. The is a low percentage of shares held by institutions and there is low analyst coverage. Insiders are buying shares. The company is buying back shares.

Unfavorable characteristics

热门行业中的热门股票。

怀揣宏大计划但尚未被证明的公司（尤其是小公司）。

通过多元化收购来扩张的盈利企业。林奇称这类行为为“恶化式多元化”。

单一客户占其销售额 25% 至 50% 的公司。

关于股票的监控以及何时卖出

Stock monitoring and when to sell

不要为了分散而分散，尤其当这意味着你对持股公司不再熟悉。投资多少家公司，取决于你的精力，只要你能对每家公司做足研究、充分了解，这个数量就是合适的。为达到分散风险的目的，可以投资几个不同类别的股票。每隔几个月检查一次持仓，重新审视公司的“故事”，看看有没有什么变化。如果“故事”已经如预期兑现，或者故事中的某些情节没有按预期发展，又或者基本面恶化了，那就卖出。价格下跌通常应视为以更便宜价格买入优秀前景股票的机会。考虑“轮动”——卖出已经兑现的股票，换入故事类似但前景更好的股票。对股市保持长期投入，并始终关注相对基本价值。

Do not diversify simply to diversify, particularly if it means less familiarity with the firms. Invest in whatever number of firms is large enough to still allow you to fully research and understand each firm. Invest in several categories of stock for diversification. Review holdings every few months, rechecking the company "story" to see if anything has changed. Sell if the "story" has played out as expected or something in the story fails to unfold as expected or fundamentals deteriorate. Price drops usually should be viewed as an opportunity to buy more of a good prospect at cheaper prices. Consider "rotation"-selling played-out stocks with stocks with a similar story, but better prospects. Maintain a long-term commitment to the stock market and focus on relative fundamental values.

玛丽亚·克劳福德·斯科特是《美国个人投资者协会期刊》的编辑。

Maria Crawford Scott is editor of the AAII Journal.