见好就收（福布斯对林奇《财富》专栏选股的审计）
适可而止
2000 年 2 月 7 日凌晨 12:00 美国东部标准时间
2013 年 6 月 6 日下午 12:50 美国东部夏令时间
本文内容距今已超过
Quit While You're Ahead Feb 07, 2000, 12:00am EST Jun 06, 2013, 12:50pm EDT This article is more than
10
10
years old.
years old.
恐怕再也不会有下一个
彼得·林奇了，连他自己也不例外。1977 年至 1990 年，林奇执掌富达麦哲伦基金期间成为传奇，年化回报率达到 29%，而同期标普 500 指数的回报率只有 15%。之后他选择隐退，把麦哲伦基金的帅位交给了莫里斯·史密斯。离开也许才是林奇最精明的市场判断。
THERE WILL LIKELY NEVER BE ANOTHER Peter Lynch, including Lynch himself. At the helm of Fidelity's Magellan Fund between 1977 and 1990, Lynch became a legend, returning an annualized 29%, versus the S&P 500's 15%. Then he quit, handing off the Magellan job to Morris Smith. Leaving may have been Lynch's smartest market call.
林奇离开后，麦哲伦基金表现不错，但远不如他任职期间那样耀眼。1990 年以来，该基金年均增长 19.3%，同期标普 500 指数为 18.6%。现在有个值得思考的问题：如果林奇一直留任，基金表现会怎样？答案很可能是：根本不会好到哪里去。我们是在研究了他 1993 年至今在《价值》杂志专栏中推荐的文章后得出这个结论的。
Magellan has done well since Lynch's departure, although not as spectacularly as during his tenure. Since 1990 the fund has shown an annual increase of 19.3%, versus the S&P 500's 18.6%. Now here's a question to ponder: How might it have done if Lynch had stuck around? Probably not well at all. We conclude this after studying his recommendations in Worth magazine columns from 1993 to date.
林奇的方法在 1980 年代确实管用：买入你熟悉的公司。这意味着他把重点大量放在消费品牌上。克莱斯勒的扭亏为盈让林奇大赚了一笔，他还在 L'eggs 连裤袜和 Dunkin' Donuts 这类消费股上获得了巨额回报。“投资者正是在自己的后院找到优势，”林奇在 1993 年初的一篇专栏中强调。
Lynch's approach worked well in the 1980s: Buy what you're familiar with. That meant a heavy emphasis on consumer brand names. Chrysler's turnaround provided Lynch with a true investment coup, and he scored huge returns on consumer issues like L'eggs Pantyhose and Dunkin' Donuts. "It's in the backyard that investors find their edge," Lynch insisted in an early 1993 column.
嗯，时代变了。20 世纪 90 年代的主角是思科、EMC、甲骨文这类公司——它们制造改变我们生活的革命性产品，但这些产品谁也看不见。
Well, times change. The 1990s were all about Cisco, EMC, Oracle and the like--makers of revolutionary products that have changed our lives but that no one ever sees.
林奇为《价值》杂志选的第一只股票是高档三明治连锁店欧邦潘（Au Bon Pain），对牛角面包爱好者来说这选择极为合理，但作为股票却一败涂地。林奇确实选中了普莱克斯/好市多（Price/Costco）、家得宝（Home Depot）和沃尔玛（Wal-Mart）这样的赢家，但他也挑了大量步伐稳健的传统企业——石油、家电、食品杂货和汽车。
Lynch's first Worth pick was the upscale sandwich-chain Au Bon Pain, which made abundant sense to croissant lovers but flopped as a stock. While Lynch had his share of winners like Price/Costco, Home Depot and Wal-Mart, he also chose lots of ploddingly classic businesses like oil, appliances, groceries and cars.
互联网？在林奇的专栏里，连提都不常提。Nynex，他本地的电话公司，是他的一只持仓股；而美国在线，使用同一条电话线的公司，却不在他的投资组合里。在难得的一次对科技股的让步中，林奇流露出了一丝感慨。“拿微软来说吧，”他在 1997 年 3 月写道，“我真希望自己当初买了。”
The Internet? In Lynch's columns even a mention was a rarity. Nynex, his local phone company, was a holding; America Online, a user of the same phone wires, was not. In a rare concession to technology, Lynch became a bit wistful. "Take Microsoft," he wrote in March 1997. "I wish I had."
我们计算发现，林奇“价值精选”中推荐并持有的股票，按当前市值计算，平均回报比用相同金额投资标普 500 指数低了 27%。林奇可能卖掉了部分股票，但他的专栏从未提及此类建议。如果跟着他买，你的钱会翻倍。可惜的是，投资标普 500 指数的钱会翻三倍。
We calculate that Lynch's Worth picks bought and held would be valued today, on average, at 27% less than identical sums put into the S&P 500. Lynch may have sold some of his stocks, but his column offers no such suggestions. Following him, your money would've doubled. Unfortunately, the S&P-invested money would've tripled.
那么，把林奇的最后一步称作一记绝妙的交易吧：他于 1990 年 5 月离开富达，同时保持了完美的纪录。正因如此，他的纪录将永远屹立。
So credit Lynch with a superb final trade: his May 1990 exit from Fidelity, record intact. Because of that, his record stands forever.
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