国家如何破产 - 研究登录页（economicprinciples.org）
#1
《纽约时报》畅销书
#1 New York Times Bestseller
HOW COUNTRIES
HOW COUNTRIES
GO BROKE
GO BROKE
大周期
The Big Cycle
大多数国家都会因同样的原因经历债务危机并走向破产。但由于其中的运作机制罕见发生，多数人都无法实时察觉正在发生什么。
Most countries experience debt crises and go broke for the same reasons. But because the mechanics at play occur so infrequently, most people don't recognize what's happening in real-time.
预料到 2008 年全球金融危机和 2011 年欧洲债务危机的传奇投资人雷·达利欧，在《国家如何破产：大周期》这本新书中阐述了这些机制——他担心美国可能成为下一个。
Ray Dalio, legendary investor who anticipated the 2008 global financial crisis and 2011 European debt crisis, has now described these mechanics in his new book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle — and he worries the US may be next.
关于国家如何破产的对话
CONVERSATIONS ON HOW COUNTRIES GO BROKE
NBC《与媒体见面》
NBC Meet the Press
雷与克里斯汀·韦尔克坐下来交谈，分享他对我们如何避免现有货币与地缘政治秩序瓦解的看法。
Ray sits down with Kristen Welker to share his thoughts on how we can avoid the breakdown of the existing monetary and geopolitical order.
CNN《法里德·扎卡里亚 GPS》
CNN Fareed Zakaria GPS
雷参加节目，讨论美国关税政策对我们长期经济前景的影响。
Ray joins the show to discuss the impacts of US tariff policy on our long-term economic outlook.
CNBC《财经论谈》之安德鲁·罗斯·索金
CNBC Squawk Box with Andrew Ross Sorkin
雷与安德鲁在美国新关税政策和既有债务问题的背景下讨论美中关系。
Ray and Andrew discuss US-China relations against the backdrop of the new US tariff policy and existing debt issue.
CNBC 达沃斯《财经论谈》
CNBC Squawk Box from Davos
雷参加《财经论谈》，讨论美国与全球经济状况，以及通过他的“3% 方案”削减预算赤字的必要性。
Ray joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the US & global economies and the need for reducing budget deficits through his 3% solution.
All-In 播客：与大卫·弗里德伯格对话
All-In Podcast: with David Friedberg
雷参加节目，讨论当前美国债务状况与风险、AI 将如何影响生产率，以及美中发生冲突的可能性。
Ray joins the show to discuss the current US debt situation and risks, how AI will impact productivity, and the chances of conflict between the US and China.
彭博《华尔街一周》
Bloomberg Wall Street Week
雷畅谈他的新书《国家如何破产》，并分享美国如何避免这一命运。
Ray talks through his new book, "How Countries Go Broke", and shares how the US can avoid that fate.
Impact Theory：与汤姆·比柳对话
Impact Theory: with Tom Bilyeu
雷与汤姆讨论全球政治与经济秩序，以及为什么现在是在美国乃至全球避免债务危机的时刻。
Ray and Tom discuss the global political and economic order, and why now is the time to avert a debt crisis in the U.S. and around the world.
Moonshots 之彼得·迪亚曼迪斯
Moonshots with Peter Diamandis
雷与彼得讨论技术对经济的影响、如何成功驾驭债务周期，以及接下来事态可能如何演变。
Ray and Peter discuss the impact of technology on the economy, how to successfully navigate debt cycles, and how events may unfold from here.
世界政府峰会之塔克·卡尔森
World Governments Summit with Tucker Carlson
雷与塔克同台现场对话，讨论美国为何必须立即削减债务，否则将面临经济“心脏病发作”。
Ray joins Tucker live on stage to discuss how the US must cut debt now or face an economic heart attack.
ENDORSEMENTS
ENDORSEMENTS
雷·达利欧对理解金融市场与经济的卓越、独辟蹊径的方式，为他赢得了非凡的预测能力，使他成为我们这个时代最伟大的投资者之一。这本书提炼了他的洞见，并将其应用于当前这个危险的时刻。对政策制定者、投资者和公民来说，这是一份宝贵的资源。
Ray Dalio's brilliant, iconoclastic approach to understanding financial markets and the economy has richly rewarded him with the predictive powers that made him one of the great investors of our time. This book distills his insights and applies them to the current perilous moment. It is an invaluable resource for policy makers, investors, and citizens.
LARRY SUMMERS
LARRY SUMMERS
美国前财政部长
Former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury
雷为这个最大、最确定无疑的繁荣威胁——滴答作响的债务炸弹——提供了解决方案。没有人比雷更懂市场和财政周期。他的书是政策制定者和任何想要深入学习的人的必读之作。这本书是送给全人类的礼物。
Ray provides a solution to what is the biggest and most certain threat to our prosperity--the ticking debt bomb. No one understands markets and fiscal cycles better than Ray. His book is a must read for policy makers and anyone who wants to dig deep and learn. This book is a gift to humanity.
HANK PAULSON
HANK PAULSON
美国前财政部长
Former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury
雷·达利欧写的一切对投资者和政策制定者来说都引人入胜。这是对一组最棘手、最危险的政策风险的出色而令人警醒的研究，为他在市场、经济和帝国兴衰驱动力方面已有的宝贵工作增添了新的篇章。
Everything Ray Dalio writes is compelling reading for the investor and the policymaker. This is an excellent and bracing study of one of the toughest and most dangerous set of policy risks, adding to his already valuable work on what drives the rise and demise of markets, economies and empires.
TIMOTHY GEITHNER
TIMOTHY GEITHNER
美国前财政部长
Former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury
雷是我了解当下世界上发生的一切的首选声音。他的新书是必读之作。
Ray is my go-to voice for understanding everything going on in the world right now. His new book is a must-read.
TONY ROBBINS
TONY ROBBINS
American Author
American Author
这本书应该是每一位国会议员、每一位政府工作人员、每一个想了解这个问题有多重要的人的必读之作。
This book should be a must read for every member of Congress, everybody in the administration, everyone who wants to understand how important this issue is.
JOE SCARBOROUGH
JOE SCARBOROUGH
电视主持人及前美国众议员
TV Host & Former U.S. Representative
政策制定者最好认真对待他的担忧。关于不可持续的美国财政轨迹……达利欧的药方出奇地易于消化。
Policymakers would do well to pay attention to his concerns. On the unsustainable US fiscal trajectory...Dalio’s medicine seems surprisingly digestible.
FINANCIAL TIMES
FINANCIAL TIMES
雷·达利欧正在发出一个极其重要的警告：国家如何破产，这与美国有何关系，以及需要做些什么来改变方向。他无党派偏见的洞见植根于经验和分析——让我们希望每一位立法者在考虑投票再给国家债务增加哪怕一美元之前，都先读读这本书。
Ray Dalio is issuing an exceedingly important warning about how countries go broke, how that pertains to the U.S., and what needs to be done to change course. His nonpartisan insights are grounded in experience and analysis—let’s hope every lawmaker reads this book before they consider voting to add even another dollar to the national debt.
MAYA MACGUINEAS
MAYA MACGUINEAS
负责任联邦预算委员会主席
President of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
雷·达利欧有一种特殊的天赋，能够识别出我们这个时代的关键问题。
Ray Dalio has a special talent for identifying the key questions of our time.
HENRY KISSINGER
HENRY KISSINGER
美国前国务卿
Former U.S. Secretary of State
达利欧先生成功地从历史中找到了可以用来理解今天的度量指标。
Mr. Dalio has managed to identify metrics from history that can be applied to understand today.
安德鲁·罗斯·索金
ANDREW ROSS SORKIN
记者及《纽约时报》专栏作家
Journalist & NY Times Columnist
国家如何破产
How Countries Go Broke
引文与参考书目
Citations and bibliography
《国家如何破产：大周期》原则的引文、注释和来源。
Citations, notes, and sources from Principles for How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle.