Fundsmith的特里·史密斯评述未来一年
在一次由《金融时报》协办的编辑部情报活动中，一场小组讨论围绕“未来一年展望”展开。活动由《金融时报》主编莱昂内尔·巴伯主持，基金史密斯创始人特里·史密斯与安德鲁·阿多尼斯勋爵、吉莉安·泰特及什里蒂·瓦德拉女男爵共同参与讨论。
At an Editorial Intelligence event, in association with the Financial Times, a panel debated "the Year Ahead". The event was chaired by Lionel Barber, the FT's Editor, and Terry Smith, Founder of Fundsmith, was joined on the panel by Lord Andrew Adonis, Gillian Tett and Baroness Shriti Vadera .
谈及未来一年展望，基金史密斯创始人特里·史密斯表示：
Commenting on the Year Ahead, Terry Smith, Founder of Fundsmith said:
“以‘电影主题’开头，续集往往不如原版精彩。我认为这是电影界的规则之一，量化宽松政策亦是如此。量化宽松旨在实现什么？它意在保持债券收益率低位，从而提供刺激；部分通过经济中的财富效应，助力房地产市场复苏，并解决西方持续存在的失业问题。在我看来，它在所有这些目标上都连续失败了。债券收益率去年年底明显急剧上升。大西洋两岸的房地产市场，充其量是磕磕绊绊，甚至可能正走向某种双重衰退。失业率也持续高企。讽刺的是，美国唯一就业增长的类别实际上竟是政府雇员。鉴于造成这些困难的根源，这似乎有点讽刺。当然，它在意外后果法则下，成功推动了通货膨胀。这显然是食品价格、棉花价格、石油价格和股价飙升的潜在因素之一。我颇为怀疑，这将成为 2011 年的一大难题；量化宽松的意外后果，基本上是因为它落入了一个‘刺激之物’而非既定目标的范畴。
"Starting with the ˜movie theme" sequels are rarely as good as the original movie. I think that is one of the rules of cinema. And so it is with quantitative easing too. Quantitative easing, what was it meant to achieve? It was meant to keep bond yields low, and by so doing provide a stimulus; partly through a wealth effect in the economy, which would help revive the housing market as well as the problems of persistent unemployment in the West. It seems to me that it has serially failed with all those objectives. Bond yields obviously rose fairly sharply at the end of last year. The housing market, on both sides of the Atlantic, is at best stuttering and it may even be heading towards some sort of double dip. Unemployment is also persistently high. Ironically, the only category in the United States where employment is rising is in fact government employees. This seems a little ironic in light of the cause of all these difficulties. Of course, what it has managed to do, in the law of unintended consequences, is promote inflation. It is clearly one of the factors that underlie the sharp rise in food prices, cotton prices, oil prices and the prices of shares. I rather suspect that this will be one of the great problems for 2011; the unintended consequences of quantitative easing, which have basically occurred because it has fallen into the category of a "simulating thing" other than those which were intended.
“欧元区显然是 2010 年的焦点。迄今为止，它也是 2011 年的焦点。我要感谢一位听众的措辞，让我接下来的话更贴切。欧元区危机初期，有句响亮的口号是‘爱尔兰而非冰岛’。冰岛是那个允许银行违约的国家，而爱尔兰则是那些在服用‘苦药’的人，他们选择了通缩和紧缩的路线。现在这似乎正在逆转，我们很可能在某个时刻会听到人们说，‘冰岛而非爱尔兰’。冰岛在允许银行倒闭后，如今经济实际在增长。在我看来，解决危机的办法——即以更高利率借给一个国家更多钱——在私营部门为一家公司再融资时绝不会采用。如果私营部门陷入困境，人们会先想知道现有债权人承担了多少损失，才肯投入资金。因此，我认为在某个时刻，我们必须接受某种形式的违约，才能为这场危机找到真正的解决方案。这就是我预测可能在 2011 年发生的事情。
"The Eurozone was clearly the story of 2010. So far, it also continues to be the story of 2011. I am indebted to one member of the audience for the phraseology of what I am about to say. At the start of the Eurozone crisis, one of the great cries was "Ireland not Iceland". Iceland was the country that had allowed banks to default, and Ireland were the people who were taking their medicine. They were going for the deflation and austerity methodology. This now appears to be changing around, and what we are likely to hear people say at some point is, "Iceland not Ireland". Iceland actually has a growing economy now, having allowed its banks to fail. It seems to me that the solution to a crisis, where you lend a country more money at a higher rate of interest, is one that would never apply when refinancing a company in the private sector. If they got into difficulties in the private sector, people would want to know how big a haircut the existing creditors were taking before they put in any money. So at some point I think we have to accept that some form of default is going to have to occur in order to create a genuine solution to this crisis. And so that is what I think may occur during the course of 2011.
“中国，我认为也可能成为 2011 年的头号焦点。它有通胀问题，显然存在房地产泡沫的迹象，无论是住房方面的鬼城，还是零售和购物方面的鬼商场。若它倒下，必定会发出巨大的响声。这一点毫无疑问，尽管有人认为美国才是最大、最重要的经济体。再次感谢另一位听众，我记得他们说过——中国的资本品进口实际上超过了美国、欧元区和日本的总和。所以，如果它真倒下了，绝对会震耳欲聋。它会倒吗？人们告诉你它不可能。我想指出，在我的职业生涯中，单就亚太地区而言，80 年代有人告诉我说日本经济‘势不可挡’，90 年代又有人说亚洲四小龙经济‘势不可挡’。两者都在被宣称‘势不可挡’后不久，便陷入了艰难而壮观的停滞。因此，我认为一切皆有可能。中国面临政策困境。它会提高利率以试图解决通胀问题，但这会给人民币带来升值压力吗？这也意味着削减贸易顺差，而这已经因那些进口而承压。或者它会保持低利率以试图压低人民币，进一步助长通胀？我认为没有轻松解困之路。
"China, I think could also possibly be THE story for 2011. It has got inflation. It has clearly got elements of a property bubble, with ghost towns in both housing and ghost malls in terms of retail and shopping. Should it fall over it will clearly make a very loud bang. There is no doubt about that, notwithstanding the view that the United States is the largest, most important economy. Again I am indebted to somebody else in the audience; now I recall something else they said - that China's capital goods imports are in fact bigger than the combination of the United States, the Eurozone and Japan together. So if it does fall over, it will definitely make a very loud bang. Will it fall over? People tell you that it can't. I would like to point out that during my working life time, if we just deal with the Asia Pacific Zone, I was told that in the 1980's the Japanese economy was "unstoppable" and again in the 1990's that the Tiger economies were "unstoppable". Both of them came to a grinding and rather spectacular halt shortly after being told that they were 'unstoppable'. Therefore I think there is every possibility. China is in a policy bind. Does it put up interest rates to try and cure its inflationary problem, in so doing, putting upward pressure on the Renminbi? This will also mean cutting into its trade surplus, which is already under quite a lot of pressure because of those imports. Or does it keep rates low to try and keep the Renminbi down and stoke inflation further? I don't think there is an easy way out of that.
“最后，回到电影主题，我对 2011 年的预测是，《国王的演讲》将赢得奥斯卡奖。”
"At the end, staying with the movie theme, I would say my prediction for 2011 is that the King's Speech will win at the Oscar's"