《金融时报》：新兴市场ETF与死亡之颚
身为主动型基金经理，我竟然支持被动或指数投资，这听起来或许有些奇怪。
It may seem a strange position for an active fund manager to adopt but I am in favour of passive or index investment.
指数投资的优势显而易见。投资者可以以极低的成本投资于一个高度分散的投资组合，因为管理费用低，交易成本也低。
The advantages of index investing are clear. Investors can invest in a widely diversified portfolio at minimal cost as management charges are low, as are costs of dealing.
指数基金和交易所交易基金（“ETF”）的明显缺陷在于，它们剥夺了投资者将投资集中于优质公司和/或估值合理或更优的股票的机会。然而，大多数主动型基金经理似乎根本就没打算只投资于优质公司，或者即便他们想这么做，也不擅长甄别优质公司。他们在判断何为合理价值时似乎同样力不从心。许多基金经理的投资组合中持有大量股票，以至于其业绩注定会与指数亦步亦趋。再加上主动管理的费用和交易成本，这意味着他们必然跑输指数。因此，我认为大多数投资者投资指数基金是更好的选择。
The obvious drawback to index funds and Exchange Traded Funds (“ETFs”) is that they deprive investors of the opportunity to focus their investment only in good companies and/or shares which offer reasonable value or better. However, it seems that most active fund managers do not even attempt to invest only in good companies, or if they do they are not very good at identifying them. They seem to have similar problems in determining what is reasonable value. Many hold so many shares in their portfolio that it is bound to track the index. When combined with active management fees and dealing costs this means that they are certain to underperform the index. Hence my view that most investors would be better served by an index fund.
但指数基金和 ETF 的迅猛发展也带来了显著的副作用。在指数基金或 ETF 中，股票的权重取决于编制指数所用的标准，通常就是公司的市值。这意味着，随着越来越多的资金通过指数基金或 ETF 进行投资，这些资金会自动经由基金，完全依据市值大小，流入相关指数的成分股公司。
But the growth in index funds and ETFs has significant side effects. In an index fund or ETF, the weighting of stocks is based upon whatever criterion is used to compile the index, typically the market capitalisation of the companies. This means that as more money is invested via index funds or ETFs it is automatically routed via the fund into the companies in the relevant index based solely upon their market value.
这可能会造成一些严重的扭曲，我们最近几乎可以肯定地在新兴市场看到了其中之一。过去两年，随着投资者寻求利用市场复苏的机会，流入新兴市场的资金大幅增加。然而，所有这些流入资金甚至更多，都涌入了新兴市场 ETF，而资金实际上却正从新兴市场主动型基金中撤出，如下图所示：
This can cause some major distortions one of which we are almost certainly seeing recently in Emerging Markets. Funds flow into Emerging Markets has increased significantly in the past couple of years as investors have sought to capitalise on a recovery. However, all of this inflow and more has gone into Emerging Markets ETFs whilst money has actually been withdrawn from Emerging Market active funds as this chart shows:
来源：EPFR Global
Source: EPFR Global
这看起来很像“死亡之颚”，这个说法源自鲨鱼袭击电影和诸如“轻骑兵冲锋”这样的军事交锋。
It looks rather like the Jaws of Death, a term taken from shark attack movies and military encounters such as the Charge of the Light Brigade.
越来越多的资金正通过这种流入方式，被配置到新兴市场指数中规模最大的公司，而这些公司并非优质公司。去年，MSCI 新兴市场指数前十大成分股的平均资本回报率（“ROCE”）仅为 12%。
Increasing amounts of money are being allocated via this inflow into the largest companies in the Emerging Markets index, and they are not good companies. Last year the Return on Capital Employed (“ROCE”) of the top ten constituent stocks of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index averaged just 12%.
当然，这只是一年的数据，你可能会质疑其是否具有代表性。回顾过去十年左右该指数中最大公司的回报情况，会发现几乎呈现持续下降的趋势，尤其是那些中国公司，它们的投资逻辑似乎建立在债务资本（对其而言）接近于免费的基础之上。这一假设向来危险，正如互联网泡沫时代和 20 世纪 80 年代末的日本所印证的那样。
Of course, this is a single year and you might wonder whether it is representative. Looking back at the returns of the largest companies in the Index for the past ten years or so shows a more or less continuous decline, particularly amongst the Chinese companies which seem to be investing on the basis that debt capital in particular for them is close to free. This is always a dangerous assumption as the Dotcom era and Japan in the late 1980s illustrated.
或许占据指数主导地位的股票估值很低，足以弥补其低回报的缺陷？从目前前十大成分股 28 倍的市盈率（而 MSCI 指数为 23 倍）来看，情况似乎并非如此，除非它们的盈利即将大幅复苏。然而，考虑到这些成分股涵盖互联网和电商股、电子产品制造商、中国的银行以及移动电信公司，这种复苏的可能性似乎不大。
Or maybe the shares which dominate the Index are lowly rated, which more than compensates for their low returns? This does not seem to be the case given the current price/earnings ratio of 28 times for the top ten largest constituents, versus 23 times for the MSCI Index, unless their earnings are about to undergo a sharp recovery. However, this seems unlikely for a mixture of internet and e-commerce stocks, electronics manufacturers, Chinese banks and mobile telecoms companies.
许多主动型基金经理哀叹指数基金和 ETF 的兴起，称这让他们的工作更加艰难。短期内，这无疑是事实。如果资金通过 ETF 涌入市场，那么无论质量或价值如何（或缺乏这些），指数中最大公司的股票都会表现良好，尽管寻求质量和/或价值的主动型基金经理并不想持有它们。资金流向的权重将使其成为一个自我实现的预言：指数将跑赢那些以理性方式行事的主动型基金经理。
Many active managers bemoan the rise of index funds and ETFs as they say it makes their job more difficult. In the short term this is undoubtedly true. If money pours into markets via ETFs it will cause the shares of the largest companies in the index to perform well irrespective of their quality or value, or lack of it, even though active managers seeking quality and/or value will not want to own them. The weight of money flows will make it a self-fulfilling prophesy that the index will outperform the active managers who behave in this rational manner.
这确实令人沮丧，但主动型基金经理应将其视为一个机会，得以持有更多优于指数平均水平的股票。如果基金经理和投资者拥有足够的耐心去等待，这些股票最终将带来卓越的回报。讽刺的是，主动管理对投资者的价值在于，它能利用市场低效（例如新兴市场 ETF 崛起所造成的那种低效），但恰恰是这些事件，让经理人和投资者更难坚持主动投资的路径。
This can be very frustrating but an active fund manager should regard this as an opportunity to own more of the shares which are better than the index average and will eventually produce superior returns if the manager and the investors have the patience necessary to wait for this to occur. The irony is that active management has value for investors as a means of exploiting market inefficiencies such as those caused by the rise of ETFs in Emerging Markets, but those events make it harder for managers and investors to follow the active path.
特里·史密斯是 Fundsmith LLP 的首席执行官
Terry Smith is chief executive of Fundsmith LLP